Mini 1699 - #swag wars: THE empire strikes back (swaggedout)

fferyllt · Fri Aug 21, 2015 10:26 am

Looks like I didn't miss anything!

fferyllt · Sat Aug 22, 2015 3:44 am

In post 2551, RedCoyote wrote:I also kind of agree with ffrey at the outset that JK + Rolecop + Backup Rolecop + Vig doesn't seem right. Then again, all of these roles have a high potential for being a negative utility to the town anyway.

Why did you leave your role out? because it's passive?

fferyllt · Sat Aug 22, 2015 4:04 am

In post 2557, RedCoyote wrote:I should question the presence of my own role...? I know it's real because the mod told me it was.

I know that's not what you meant, but that's the real answer to your question.

If you want me to give you something more in line with what I think you're asking, I think you need only look to Tammy. If you believe Tammy, then you should believe me. But why, you may ask. It's because it fits in line with setup speculation given the moderator.

Your role being part of the setup is relevant to the likelihood of the other roles being present though?

The only way I can see hypothetical scum-you deciding at the start of the game that a miller fake claim was the way to go was if the scum team has a godfather.

fferyllt · Sat Aug 22, 2015 4:15 am

Pie didn't take over day 2.

RedCoyote, I feel like you perceived day 2 very differently from how I saw it.

fferyllt · Sat Aug 22, 2015 4:17 am

In post 2562, RedCoyote wrote:
In post 2560, fferyllt wrote:
In post 2557, RedCoyote wrote:I should question the presence of my own role...? I know it's real because the mod told me it was.

I know that's not what you meant, but that's the real answer to your question.

If you want me to give you something more in line with what I think you're asking, I think you need only look to Tammy. If you believe Tammy, then you should believe me. But why, you may ask. It's because it fits in line with setup speculation given the moderator.

Your role being part of the setup is relevant to the likelihood of the other roles being present though?

The only way I can see hypothetical scum-you deciding at the start of the game that a miller fake claim was the way to go was if the scum team has a godfather.

I don't know what you're getting at and/or if you want me to respond to this. I read your first question three times and I still don't understand what you are asking. It's a simple point, mine is. A role cop, especially if there's a backup, is easily the star of this setup. The moderator likely based the setup around a role cop and potential pitfalls it may encounter vis-a-vis other roles (miller, probably godfather).

Anyway, I said this WIFOM before and I will say it again, I wouldn't have fakeclaimed miller as scum because I just did that less than I year ago. I actually have done it twice in the past two (ish) years. I'm not interested in doing it again for the time being.

I'm just saying that it's impossible to consider setup probability without considering all the claimed roles. You know your role is in the game, that's where certainty starts.

fferyllt · Sat Aug 22, 2015 4:33 am

In post 2566, RedCoyote wrote:
ffrey 2564 wrote:Pie didn't take over day 2.

you, in that context = not pie but moreso the dumb town collective

Honestly I said that to ruffle her feathers a bit, lmao, but you know... I'm mean like that.

Also, ffrey, can you answer 2553? I'd like to see what you think about that. Perhaps with more than just "he saw me as town". Why on the same level as Tammy in light of her claim? Do you think Nacho would've snuck in something more... eh... critical for lack of a better word?

I think it comes down to basis of play. I'm very much a reads based player, and have at times held my reads higher than anything else I knew about the game. Nacho's play is more well rounded than that, but he also puts a lot of weight on reads.

When I saw that post, it basically reinforced my confidence that he knows how to read me. And it also reinforced the feeling I have about my play in this game. I feel like I've been ridiculously transparent obvtown from my 2nd post onward. I say 2nd because my first post is intentionally and always alignment neutral.

My self-perception in games isn't always in line with how others perceive me, but day 1 of this game it all seemed synchronous.

Day 2 was less so.

My paranoia always creeps in, though. That level of read certainty at that point in the game meant he had to see stuff about my play regarding other players in a particular light, I think.

And it's relevant to his flipped read on me, which I don't want to discuss just yet.

fferyllt · Sat Aug 22, 2015 4:37 am

RC why do you feel the oversoul wagon is the better wagon at this point?

fferyllt · Sat Aug 22, 2015 5:07 am

that helps, thanks.

I'm not going to vote before Tammy is done with her review and Q&A and what have you. I want more from Nacho also.

fferyllt · Sat Aug 22, 2015 10:17 am

Post 2516?

fferyllt · Sat Aug 22, 2015 10:55 am

I think the mist idea is good, but I don't think Nacho absolutely must be a source of mist.

I have some tinfoil stuff running around inside my head, but it would involve a level of scum preplanning and play that I don't think I've ever seen in a game. Except this one time involving a player who doesn't play at MS and even then he was on his own with it, not orchestrating a team.

fferyllt · Sat Aug 22, 2015 1:38 pm

In post 2590, Nachomamma8 wrote:
In post 2324, fferyllt wrote:Nacho is the one I'm really worried about. he talked about our usual town mind meld, but I've only had flickers of that. the strongest flicker was on day 1 when he was rethinking Anen. If anyone was going to get into my head and see where my vote came from, it would be him. And instead, he scumread me for it. It's sitting out there in the thread in a strange place with no obvious antecedent because the drivers were all internal. Anyway, he's been going back and forth with you over one vote most of the game day while all this crap is happening between notsci vs pie. I wanted more indication of where his thoughts on oversoul were headed, but maybe that was unrealistic given his thread presence.

Of all the major votes I've made this game (the ones I can remember, Anen, Cheetory, implosion, RC), I've done so because I've been significantly influenced by your direction and pushes. The major wagons I bucked against (Anen, Boon) also had a fair bit of your thought process behind them and I've seen my thought process in plenty of your pushes and push backs. Generally when this happens, we are on the same page in a good way, and your vote on me when I was feeling the most vulnerable sent up red flags, which I acted on at the time when I wouldn't act on it necessarily in different times and different places. "I wanted to see how you reacted" was not what I was expecting as an explanation at all; your later explanation was a lot closer to what I was expecting as a response.

I don't know what you mean by I've been going back and forth over one vote all day; I focused on the RC vote with Wicked earlier for a little while and didn't really focus on much else because I lacked the direction to really push or search anywhere else; I was thinking of where I wanted to go when I wasn't posting in the game and spending any time I had in thread trying to do one of the many many things I want to do in this thread.

I feel llike I've been able to understand what you were trying to do several times, but, like with the push on Boon to hopefully get him to obvtown - I knew what you were doing, I went along, and there was a pretty decent pro-town reason to do it, but I didn't have any confidence it was going to lead us to lynching scum day 2. And it reminded me of games where scum-you have pulled one townie out of the fire while pushng another townie into it.

I felt like most of your day 3 energy at the time I posted my vote had been spent on talking to wicked about his read of you.

Maybe it comes down to your not being able to follow up or follow through at significant junctures.

fferyllt · Sat Aug 22, 2015 1:48 pm

In post 2590, Nachomamma8 wrote:"I wanted to see how you reacted" was not what I was expecting as an explanation at all; your later explanation was a lot closer to what I was expecting as a response.

Also this is so much of an oversimplification that it qualfies as a misrepresentation.

fferyllt · Sat Aug 22, 2015 1:50 pm

In post 2595, Nachomamma8 wrote:
In post 2593, fferyllt wrote:And it reminded me of games where scum-you have pulled one townie out of the fire while pushng another townie into it.

This is very much how I try to play scumgames because it helps create allies to make up for the enemies I make when getting the mislynches I need. I don't think I've really been playing to get the allies I need this game and that is one strong sign that I'm town, but that's also something that I'm not really sure is obvious enough to be good selling point/I'm not sure how I'd play it differently as scum except what I mentioned before/
actually fight harder to lynch what I want to lynch.

I feel like prior to today (and to some extent prior to my vote) you hadn't been doing this. You hadn't been working to get scumreads lynched.

fferyllt · Sat Aug 22, 2015 1:54 pm

In post 2597, fferyllt wrote:
In post 2595, Nachomamma8 wrote:
In post 2593, fferyllt wrote:And it reminded me of games where scum-you have pulled one townie out of the fire while pushng another townie into it.

This is very much how I try to play scumgames because it helps create allies to make up for the enemies I make when getting the mislynches I need. I don't think I've really been playing to get the allies I need this game and that is one strong sign that I'm town, but that's also something that I'm not really sure is obvious enough to be good selling point/I'm not sure how I'd play it differently as scum except what I mentioned before/
actually fight harder to lynch what I want to lynch.

I feel like prior to today (and to some extent prior to my vote) you hadn't been doing this. You hadn't been working to get scumreads lynched.

And to be fair it's looked like to some extent you simply haven't been online enough or at the right times to do this. But it's still something that wasn't there in your play.

fferyllt · Sat Aug 22, 2015 1:58 pm

In post 2599, Nachomamma8 wrote:
In post 2256, fferyllt wrote:
In post 2251, Nachomamma8 wrote:
In post 2243, fferyllt wrote:
vote: Nacho

:/

Ffery, are you scum? I've been hoping you could sort of translate my thoughts wrt RC to wicked for me, and then right when I'm expecting you to step in and help, you vote me. Why?

I voted you because this game doesn't make any sense and I feel like it's because my reads are terrible. I've been trusting you and following you to some eextent but it's like I have a lump of ice in my stomach.

I voted you, hoping you're town and you'll show it in your reaction and you'll do what I can't seem to do which is solve this game.

Would it be less oversimplified if I said it was to make me town harder?

I think so, because it was the internals - how I felt about the game state, and seeing another huge blow-up between pie and notsci, and seeing the oversoul replacement into the slot I most wanted to sort, and seeing the {you justifying your RC push to Wicked} thing becoming your main effort when you had time for this game that led voting you at that point.

fferyllt · Sat Aug 22, 2015 2:18 pm

What do you think about RC's play today?

fferyllt · Sat Aug 22, 2015 2:50 pm

In post 2610, Nachomamma8 wrote:
In post 2410, notscience wrote:I think you've seen how nervous I am to push people I'm friends with lest i be wrong about the read

Also I know this has probably and hopefully beaten into the thread by now but pie doesn't post the meltdown that comes after this post in thread as scum based on what comes literally right before it.

I don't understand what this means.

fferyllt · Sat Aug 22, 2015 2:51 pm

It seems to read like you think pie is scum, but that's not what I'm getting from other recent posts.

fferyllt · Sat Aug 22, 2015 2:55 pm

Then I'm in agreement.

fferyllt · Sat Aug 22, 2015 3:30 pm

I could vote implosion.

fferyllt · Sat Aug 22, 2015 3:43 pm

In post 2634, RedCoyote wrote:You know, we could argue with each other up and down about "why would town Nacho do this?" "a backup sounds like a questionable role" "let's put implosion back on the table" "I only want to lynch claimed PRs" etc etc...

...

...

...

Can someone explain to me how Oversoul gets away with lurking right now as town? Which, for the record, is completely UNLIKE how he acted when he was actually being pressured as the likely lynch. Which, for the record, is exactly what Vinkah did to get away from pressure yesterday.

Can someone DEFEND this role slot right now? This very second? The way it's lurking to get away from pressure? Oversoul sure as hell won't do it. pie? ns? ffrey? Wicked? Tammy? Anyone................?

I predict Oversoul is today's lynch.

fferyllt · Sat Aug 22, 2015 3:50 pm

In post 2639, RedCoyote wrote:ffrey, I'm asking you to vote Oversoul. No more tying yourself to Tammy's apron strings. No more sitting in the not voting row. No more "don't think I won't hammer". You must stand on your own and place a vote. If we lynch Nacho today and he flips town, I will lose it, babe. I will totally lose it. I just don't know what else to say. I know this is tunnelling like crazy, but I just don't know what else to say.

I'm not putting him at L-1 yet. Day 3 is probably Tammy's last day in the game. There is a lot of stuff going on that I'd like to see her thoughts regarding.
'

fferyllt · Sat Aug 22, 2015 6:04 pm

yeah that makes sense.

fferyllt · Sat Aug 22, 2015 6:11 pm

In post 2638, notscience wrote:What do you think of implosion's analysis of the dynamic between me and pie?

Inaccurate, and I suspect disingenuous.

fferyllt · Sat Aug 22, 2015 6:20 pm

Though it could be just unfamiliarity with pieguy's play style, maybe. Tunneling until and unless she's convinced she's wrong about someone is pretty typical of her townplay.

fferyllt · Sat Aug 22, 2015 6:30 pm

I might have been more inclined to take pieguy's side of the arguments if I hadn't been empathizing with the way you looked lost and apathetic here. Every time I started to think she was making sense about you, you'd say something that strongly echoed my thoughts about/during particular moments of the game.

fferyllt · Sat Aug 22, 2015 6:38 pm

In post 2649, notscience wrote:My thought process is a little more in depth and requires knowing how familiar pie and I are with each other but I can see that point as well.

Would you expect implosion to know enough of this to accurately describe the dynamic?

fferyllt · Sat Aug 22, 2015 6:47 pm

I thought his characterizing your play as unmistakably towny was a bit of a stretch. That's the part that feels most disingenuous. From there, it's a narrative - that as players were losing their scumread of you, Pieguy had to eventually give up on you as a viable lynch target, as opposed to finally shaking herself out of the tunneling.

fferyllt · Sat Aug 22, 2015 6:57 pm

I remember very town moments in your play. It was late day 2 before I stopped worrying about your alignment.

fferyllt · Sat Aug 22, 2015 6:58 pm

Who are you scumreading?

fferyllt · Sun Aug 23, 2015 1:48 pm

You're ignoring what happens to the gamestate as town players townreading notsci get nk'd. pieguy could have maintained the read, and perpetuated the noise while compromise voting other players. At some point, if nacho is town, it would become a reason for nacho to worry about pieguy. At some later point (probably later, I think) I would have become concerned. It probably wouldn't have been today.

fferyllt · Sun Aug 23, 2015 2:34 pm

In post 2678, implosion wrote:That does make sense. And it definitely makes sense as an option for scum-pie to follow. But what I'm saying also makes sense as an option for scum-pie to follow because it allows her to focus more on whatever mislynch she thinks will happen today, or possibly just a series of two other mislynches that she thinks she'll be able to pull off today and tomorrow.

I'm not saying that it's the only thing that scum-pie possibly could have done, I'm saying it makes sense for scum-pie to have done and that it didn't feel like it was done genuinely.

I feel like you're talking about some hypothetical generic scum player who could have done x or done y from both a scum or town motivation.

This isn't a hypothetical player. It's pieguyn, who has ingrained town and scum behaviors.

fferyllt · Sun Aug 23, 2015 2:47 pm

Then talk me through what it is about the way in which it was done makes it look scummy. It's not clear to me from reading the last two pages or so what you are referring to.

fferyllt · Sun Aug 23, 2015 8:10 pm

I think I need to get away from this game.

Implosion, everything you post looks scummy to me now. And that feels like massive confirmation bias.

fferyllt · Sun Aug 23, 2015 8:20 pm

Your stance changes feel so convenient. You've left yourself completely open to be able to vote anyone with the exception of notsci and tammy going forward.

fferyllt · Sun Aug 23, 2015 8:22 pm

And that happens to be the one concern I've never been able to shake about wicked.

fferyllt · Sun Aug 23, 2015 8:40 pm

It doesn't sound like a wrong concern to have. It sounds like you're confirming that your willing-to-lynch pile as of toDay contains 7 maaaybe 6 players out of 9.

fferyllt · Sun Aug 23, 2015 9:01 pm

how do you see 3 of those 4 as a scumteam in this game?

fferyllt · Sun Aug 23, 2015 9:15 pm

I don't see myself and wicked to be any more likely than me and os in terms of our interactions throughout the game. I think the main thing that makes such a team impossible if I were scum is the discussions I had with S-s about him. People who know my scum game would he highly skeptical I'd lay down those sorts of associatives with a teammate.

I can see an argument for a team containing me/nacho coming from someone who hasn't played with us both recently.

fferyllt · Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:43 am

I'm not here to make you happy with my play. I'm here to play to my wincon, which I think is also yours. And IMO more data from Tammy (and to a lesser extent Nacho now) is good for town.

That said, I am impatient for Tammy to actually post somethng.

fferyllt · Mon Aug 24, 2015 7:06 am

apparently it doesn't. I'm not just interested in what tammy has to say about oversoul.

I sometimes describe my play as dispassionate. this game hasn't particularly been iconic of dissipation for me. I don't think you have enough experience playing with me to see just how confusing and frustrating I've found the game.

I think the major win for me today has been nailing down my nacho read.

fferyllt · Mon Aug 24, 2015 9:14 am

In post 2707, pieguyn wrote:
In post 2705, fferyllt wrote:I think the major win for me today has been nailing down my nacho read.

wait, you're not scum reading him?

ugh

I'm not. I'm not as sure he's town as I'd like but I think he's right that it will become clear which of him or implosion are town if we force scum to deal with them.

fferyllt · Mon Aug 24, 2015 10:09 am

In post 2710, notscience wrote:And if scum doesn't deal with them?

they risk a vig kill or a rolecop result.

fferyllt · Mon Aug 24, 2015 3:58 pm

In post 2717, Wickedestjr wrote:
In post 2693, fferyllt wrote:And that happens to be the one concern I've never been able to shake about wicked.

There was a period of time during day 2 where I was kinda lost and trying to find a direction that I liked. But other than that, I think I've been pretty open about what my reads are.

It's not that you don't have reads. I mentioned this earlier this game day - you've left yourself a lot of maneuvering room with your vote. I know that it's been hard in this game to have solid reads. Your town reads have been expressed with a fair bit of wiggle room. You question, question again, build on your question and eventually get to a point where you seem satisfied. And in your next reads list that person isn't a town read.

This could be a play style thing.

fferyllt · Mon Aug 24, 2015 5:56 pm

In post 2741, Tammy wrote:
In post 2724, fferyllt wrote:
In post 2717, Wickedestjr wrote:
In post 2693, fferyllt wrote:And that happens to be the one concern I've never been able to shake about wicked.

There was a period of time during day 2 where I was kinda lost and trying to find a direction that I liked. But other than that, I think I've been pretty open about what my reads are.

It's not that you don't have reads. I mentioned this earlier this game day - you've left yourself a lot of maneuvering room with your vote. I know that it's been hard in this game to have solid reads. Your town reads have been expressed with a fair bit of wiggle room. You question, question again, build on your question and eventually get to a point where you seem satisfied. And in your next reads list that person isn't a town read.

This could be a play style thing.

You metad him and discussed it with soft spoken day two, did you come away with uncertainties?

Not at the time, though I knew it was a fairly shallow try at metaing him. The thng that makes me worry is how several times his process of working through questions with someone came to an apparent satisfactory close, but the conclusion - the read - came off as a grey area.

fferyllt · Tue Aug 25, 2015 8:03 am

Implosion is sounding more town to me today than earlier. The thought processes and town come off townish.

fferyllt · Tue Aug 25, 2015 8:05 am

In post 2799, Tammy wrote:I had made a mistake about investigating so as sk. When I read it again, it said sk would investigate as vanilla, unless I read it wrong again.

What does "so" mean?

fferyllt · Tue Aug 25, 2015 10:12 am

Nacho, it didn't look to me like the sort of struggle with words and expression you had in the forest fire game. In that game, you had a strong read (which turned out to be correct!), even though you couldn't explain it in a way that I could convey on your behalf. here, it looked more like a lack of good reads than a lack of expression of reads. I can see places here and there where could be difficult getting your thoughts into words. The RC read change fits that narrative, though I really didn't have a problem with your day 2 RC read at the time. I was second guessing my read at that point and wondering if I'd put too much faith in what is actually a pretty low-data meta read of a player whose scum game is very well respected from what I've gathered.

fferyllt · Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:08 pm

Tammy how are you reading Nacho?

fferyllt · Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:43 pm

[quote="Tammy"]Ffery - what is your read on pie?[/quote

]Some of my town reads are in flux again because some of implosion's posts today feel town to me. Sometimes a player will have an entire iso that I can't really find much to object to, but there's nothing there that stands up and screams town either. That's how I felt about implosion's posts prior to day 3, and it was very easy to PoE him based on other players feeling more town at the point where I was willing to see him lynched on day 2. his exchange with Nacho this morning changes that for me. I'm going to reread him tonight and see if this sense that he could be town stands up to another look.

If he's town, then I have to look at other reads with a more critical eye. That starts with Pie and Nacho. I'm reluctant. I feel like I just reached a point of sureness about the game and I don't want to give it up again.

fferyllt · Tue Aug 25, 2015 3:04 pm

In post 2822, Tammy wrote:So then do you feel good about not science?

Yeah I do.

fferyllt · Wed Aug 26, 2015 5:53 am

:/

The aggressive tunnelly aspect of Pie's town play is something shes been very successful in transplanting to her scum game IMO.

I think the hard part to transplant is the abrupt and acute read changes that tend to happen in her town game, because with all the self awarenes in the world it's still difficult to get that aspect right

fferyllt · Wed Aug 26, 2015 8:02 am

Tammy unless you want more time, I plan to vote oversoul in about 10-12 hours.

fferyllt · Wed Aug 26, 2015 8:34 am

In post 2881, Tammy wrote:my only reservation right now is that vinkah replaced out. Nacho and I were playing in the mafiascum upick in which vinkah was scum and he didn't replace out of there. There's not complete correlations because that was very slow moving game so he didn't have to do much, but if the game was also going well for him as scum here why not stay in? I'm not sure how strong a point this is thoug

You hadn't' mentioned that :/

fferyllt · Wed Aug 26, 2015 8:38 am

In post 2885, Nachomamma8 wrote:
In post 2811, fferyllt wrote:Nacho, it didn't look to me like the sort of struggle with words and expression you had in the forest fire game. In that game, you had a strong read (which turned out to be correct!), even though you couldn't explain it in a way that I could convey on your behalf. here, it looked more like a lack of good reads than a lack of expression of reads. I can see places here and there where could be difficult getting your thoughts into words. The RC read change fits that narrative, though I really didn't have a problem with your day 2 RC read at the time. I was second guessing my read at that point and wondering if I'd put too much faith in what is actually a pretty low-data meta read of a player whose scum game is very well respected from what I've gathered.

This makes sense.
The point I thought that you would be able to translate in particular was approaching reading him in a different way and that effecting the read; I figured that you of all people would understand the concept of changing lenses while people who didn't know me well probably wouldn't and there was no way in hell that I would be able to put the concept into anything but Nacho-speak with my mind in the state that it was in.

I didn't realize approaching the read in a different way was where the disconnect was.

fferyllt · Wed Aug 26, 2015 8:40 am

I haven't had time, but I don't think this is something I have to do today. Would be utterly shocked if I'm the n3 nk.

fferyllt · Wed Aug 26, 2015 8:46 am

I came so close to playing that game. The sample role PM was actually the role PM she wrote for me before I /outed!

fferyllt · Wed Aug 26, 2015 11:34 am

I think it was the hammer?

fferyllt · Wed Aug 26, 2015 11:34 am

and yeah that's a scum claim.

fferyllt · Wed Aug 26, 2015 11:38 am

making some mental notes about Vinkah and his main.

fferyllt · Fri Aug 28, 2015 2:09 pm

I feel stupid.

fferyllt · Fri Aug 28, 2015 2:14 pm

It couild all be scum theater, yeah.

fferyllt · Fri Aug 28, 2015 3:44 pm

I think I want to lynch wicked today.

Or no-lynch.

fferyllt · Sat Aug 29, 2015 5:47 am

In post 2940, pieguyn wrote:ffery, you agree on RC/Wicked scum team?

I'd like to think that he was trying to strongarm me into hammering Oversoul because he's scum, yes.

I'm not sure that's what was actually happening. I want to do some rereading.

fferyllt · Sat Aug 29, 2015 4:02 pm

In post 2947, Wickedestjr wrote:pie/notscience/Nacho actually makes quite a bit of sense right now

(totally the first time I've said
that
this game)

ffery why do
you
want to lynch me?

Why do you think pie/notscience/nacho make sense?

When I saw the oversoul flip, my immediate thought was that remaining scum were nacho/you/redcoyote or nacho/notsci/pie, with the second grouping lower probability simply because nacho doesn't usually ignore his scumbuddies and he came pretty close to ignoring both of them for most of day 1/2/3.

I haven't had time to go back through the game since Friday. May get to it tomorrow. More likely Monday. I want to know why my gut isn't comfortable with pie/rc as a possibility.

fferyllt · Sat Aug 29, 2015 8:56 pm

From Nacho's ISO

post 150

Townreads: Layla, Vinkah, Nosci, Tammy, me.

Doesn't like Gnomeo's tammy vote.

Pushes back at notsci's RC read.

Talks to but doesn't read: wickedestjr. Doesn't mention pieguy, implosion or RC (outside of notsci's read of RC)

post 238

This continues the discussion with notsci about RC, with more defense of RC. I remember reading this carefully as it unfolded and feeling like nacho's comments about what RC's scum game would look like compared to what he was doing were in line with my thoughts about him. Looking back at this I don't feel as good about it. In both the games I played with Scum-RC, he picked apparently weak or unknown players to attack on day. I'm wondering if he would have thought notsci was a weak link in this game. The comment about being unsure on day 1 translating to town is interesting.

Nacho on day 3. in response to my comment about how he will push one townie into the fire while pulling another townie out, said that he does this to gain allies so he can get enough mislynches. Early day 1, he defended Cheetory (boonskiies) and pushed Gnomeo.

245 This is disappointment that implosion unvoted Gnomeo (right after voting him) and voting pieguy instead.

274 here he pushes back at Cheetory regarding wicked, and pushes back at Layla about Gnomeo

399 here he votes cheetory, starting a new wagon. at this point the two largest wagons were Anen (3) and Gnomeo (2), so nothing strategic here in terms of protecting a teammate.

501 - asks if he's crazy for townreading RC for his comment about players (specifically nacho/me) sticking up for him while he was gone. :/

he runs into roadblocks with the cheetory wagon (specifically Implosion, then moves to Anen.

657 this is one of several day 1 posts where I feel like he was kinda mocking town :/ describing his scum game, projecting it onto Cheetory, then deciding to drop it.

658 - he encourages notsci to push pieguy. This doesn't look like a scum/scum interaction. And suggesting he push a teammate is probably not something he'd do?

659 - he liked the slow pace. ugh.

660 RC's scumpile is Anen, Layla and notsci. Nacho says they're easy targets but he doesn't disagree.

679 he toys with the idea of voting notsci, doesn't like his vote on Pieguy (this is after he encouraged notsci to vote pieguy in 658)

This ends day 1. his posts this game day don't give me a notsci-partner feel at all. he defended RC a couple times, which could be a partner thing.

fferyllt · Sun Aug 30, 2015 8:00 am

because it was the first thing that jumped out at me re nacho/RC, and it is the start of a stance that paralleled my meta defense of RC.

fferyllt · Sun Aug 30, 2015 3:19 pm

In post 2950, Wickedestjr wrote:ffery, what do you think of 2939, given my response?

I felt like you were making a hairsplitting argument against pieguyn's post. But, I'm worried that I'm confbiasing. hoping to find some clarity through a reread.

In post 2968, notscience wrote:Also, RC's posts today remind me of

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p7082367

That's...interesting.

In the first game I played with RC I challenged him on a post that sounded scum-perspective on day 2 or 3, and I got an apology. I wondered at the time if apologizing is a scum tell for him. It was really the only post of his that I could look back at afterwards and think "I should have made a bigger deal about this".

fferyllt · Sun Aug 30, 2015 4:35 pm

In post 2973, notscience wrote:How long ago was this?

2013

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=84&t=27745

specifically this post: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p4974110, the touche in response to Mac.

fferyllt · Mon Aug 31, 2015 6:11 am

In post 2879, fferyllt wrote:Tammy unless you want more time, I plan to vote oversoul in about 10-12 hours.

I'm trying to make sense of why nacho fake claimed backup rolecop.

Oversoul was his counterwagon.

The best he could hope for was to survive the day and get killed by implosion once he fake claimed, Without that claim he might have survived day 3 and night 3.

When he fake claimed he was at L-3. with just notsci and pieguy voting him.

Why did he decide to fake claim?

I think it had something to do with Implosion having a kill.

Does that imply 3 scum or two in the setup?

fferyllt · Mon Aug 31, 2015 6:22 am

It meant that his claim or Implosion's claim had to be fake. It meant that not killing him on night 3 would be an SK claim from Implosion. he actually spelled this out when notsci asked why he or implosion would be worted out on night 3.

fferyllt · Mon Aug 31, 2015 6:30 am

In post 2879, fferyllt wrote:Tammy unless you want more time, I plan to vote oversoul in about 10-12 hours.

If he's vig, then Nacho wanted his 2nd kill used up, even if it meant using the kill up on him.

I don't know if this line of thought is actually taking me any place useful. :/

But when I started the thought I was wondering if it suggested anything about the size of the scum team.

Reading back through his day 1 iso, I don't think he was genuinely scumhunting, which he would have been able to do if he already knew there was an SK (e.g., if his team was only 2 players). I think he was looking for allies.

fferyllt · Mon Aug 31, 2015 7:11 am

In post 3013, notscience wrote:
In post 3010, fferyllt wrote:Reading back through his day 1 iso, I don't think he was genuinely scumhunting, which he would have been able to do if he already knew there was an SK (e.g., if his team was only 2 players). I think he was looking for allies.

Are you thinking a traitor?

I was thinking about his haul one townie out of the ocean and throw another townie to the sharks style of scum play, where the townie he saves often helps him lynch town later. To me, that's what his day 1 kinda looks like, but was sort of abbreviated due to lack of time in the game thread. he pushes gnomeo, then backs off, pushes Cheetory, then backs off, pushes Anen, then verbally backs off but leaves his vote down.

The idea of a traitor hadn't occurred to me at all.

fferyllt · Mon Aug 31, 2015 7:16 am

I said allies because nacho said allies when he responded to my comment about his scum play.

In post 2595, Nachomamma8 wrote:
In post 2593, fferyllt wrote:And it reminded me of games where scum-you have pulled one townie out of the fire while pushng another townie into it.

This is very much how I try to play scumgames because it helps create allies to make up for the enemies I make when getting the mislynches I need. I don't think I've really been playing to get the allies I need this game and that is one strong sign that I'm town, but that's also something that I'm not really sure is obvious enough to be good selling point/I'm not sure how I'd play it differently as scum except what I mentioned before/ actually fight harder to lynch what I want to lynch.

fferyllt · Mon Aug 31, 2015 8:11 am

I'm going to just keep on worrying that a least one of you are scum though the not-a-jibbering-paranoiac part of me thinks you're both town.

fferyllt · Mon Aug 31, 2015 9:55 am

In post 2980, notscience wrote:The only way RC's play makes any sense at all today is scum who know it's probably over.

But I'm not sure why I still have reservations.

I just reread this. It's possible, but it's not the way he acted as scum who knew it was over in this game:

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=84&t=35056

Look at his play on day 3 in particular

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p5637374

fferyllt · Mon Aug 31, 2015 10:07 am

his play here looks more emotional to me. I think there was resignation in that game, but he was going through the motions, if that makes sense. "Everyone here basically knows I'm town", talking about where to look next after he flipped town, etc.

What do you see as similar?

fferyllt · Mon Aug 31, 2015 10:08 am

It's a different gamestate though, which could account for some of the difference.

fferyllt · Mon Aug 31, 2015 10:27 am

In post 3025, notscience wrote:For starters,

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 8#p5645798

Looks like

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 3#p7184253

And I'd say that his play here looks very much like going through the motions to defend himself. There, as a "townie" he knows his "mislynch" ends up in having to look elsewhere- here his mislynch ends up in a town loss. So literally the only motions he can go through are trying to convince us he's town and to look elsewhere.

There are similarities. The differences is emotional - distraught/lost vs bored.

I think I need to look at some other games.

fferyllt · Mon Aug 31, 2015 10:48 am

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p7112314 - scum game where he's under pressure

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p5731152 - town game where he's under pressure (was lynched day 1)

also this one http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p5731131 from the same game.

fferyllt · Mon Aug 31, 2015 11:07 am

In post 3029, notscience wrote:See, I feel like there's more emotion in that scumgame than the towngame.

The emotions are different, for sure. I'd like to find a town game where he came under pressure late in the game. Might have time to do that tonight.

Overall, I'm feeling like these games point a little toward scum-RC, though not in a huge way. it's a riduculous sample size.

fferyllt · Mon Aug 31, 2015 2:38 pm

Implosion is v/la until sometime today or tomorrow. I want to hear his thoughts.

fferyllt · Tue Sep 01, 2015 4:27 am

If you're right about RC, then you need to look at other possibilities as well.

It will be worth your time to look at some of the game links I've dug up so far. hopefully more to come.

fferyllt · Tue Sep 01, 2015 5:52 am

In post 3012, RedCoyote wrote:Damnit, ffrey. I'm sorry. I feel like I really let this town down.
I have no idea how to scumhunt anymore.

This is a strange thing to say given your reads earlier this summer in Eclipse Mafia. http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=61783

I'm still looking through games for a town game where you came under pressure similar to this one.

fferyllt · Tue Sep 01, 2015 7:40 am

I found a game with a lot of pressure, but not so similar to this one: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=62192

RC was lynched on day 2. he replaced in and was under time pressure from the start. he mentioned being despondent at one point, but the despondency was about excessive replace-outs and lurking with no deadline adjustments, not about his play.

I have looked at so many games my eyes are bleeding. I think what I'm concluding is that RC is passionate about the game and has a drive to play on and keep trying no matter the situation, especially as town, though he clearly prefers being scum. he gets irritated with lackadaisical play from town players.

The Bees game above pretty much exemplifies this, in terms of what sorts of behaviors he dislikes, though I also saw some similar concerns regarding poor play in Fakegod's Only You Can Prevent Forest Fires game.

This game definitely hasn't pushed those buttons. We didn't have a ton of replacements, the game hasn't been marred by vast periods of Sargasso Sea, and the replacements we got were strong players.

I'm 2 pages back in his ego search and haven't found a game where he gave up and ceded agency to another player the way he has here.
I'm sympathetic because much of Day 3 was a low spot for me, but I feel like if I have found the backbone to forge on and keep trying to solve the game, why hasn't he? But, I didn't lead, push and chivvy a lynch on a player who flipped town.

I guess that's the point. I haven't found a game where he pushed hard for a lynch and gave up when the player flipped town, not a long game like this one.

There was one game we played (I was in the Sangres hydra) where he was town and the game went on forever (200+ pages was still unusual at that time) http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go

The length of days, tons of posting, etc irritated him, but he was never despondent - just kinda wanted to lynch some of the noise if I recall correctly. he survived to the end and helped lynch the last scum.

fferyllt · Tue Sep 01, 2015 7:42 am

In post 3039, RedCoyote wrote:ffrey, really? I replaced in on D2 and was shot on N2. I wasn't even around long enough to see a flip. Further, I was ultimately wrong with two of my three main scumreads in that game.

Other than my alignment, there's pretty much no similarities between those games.

From my read it looked like you had two of the three scum pegged, but thought ABR was town? You misread some town players as well, iirc. Did I miss somethng?

fferyllt · Tue Sep 01, 2015 8:55 am

In post 3044, RedCoyote wrote:
ffrey 3042 wrote:Did I miss somethng?

Well, I went back and forth on Juls, but ultimately I moved her back to a townread. Had I gotten further in the game, I may have went back, but I was 1 for 3 in what I would consider my "final" three scumpicks in the game. Though now that you have me looking back, Sotty had a cop that game which would've probably had Juls back on my scumlist... Anyway, we're splitting hairs.

ffrey, you really want me to find comparable meta to this one? I haven't been speaking much to this subject because it's totally self-serving for me to chime in, imo, but when you're seriously bringing up Eclipse Mafia as a good comparison, I'm skeptical of your decisions. All joking aside about how you can read me better than I can myself (regardless of what happens this game, I remain impressed with the accurate nature of some of the things you said about me earlier this game), I do have to live with myself. Thus, I know a thing or two about how I act in certain situations. Eclipse Mafia in no way, shape or form is indicative of my mindset here. We're talking polar opposites because that was me at peak confidence. Let me bring up three town games which are more better indicators of where my mind is at:

Subject: ATHF Mafia OVER(roles and whatnot revealed)

RedCoyote wrote:...Oh, wait, it wasn't podium. It was Kcda. D:

Ah, screw it. I made too many mistakes here. I don't really know what's going on anyways.

Vote: implosion

The best I can figure is that the ATHF are the actual bad guys. Well, whatever. You guys can lynch me if you want.

Not quite the same situation (this had to do with me misreading my PR results), but the effect is the same. As town, if I think I'm not really helping the town's chances, I turn a bit morose. I dislike being unhelpful. In this situation, I had fumbled my role results twice and didn't think it was reasonable to expect the rest of the town to still see me as genuine. Similar to this game, I see myself making one bad move (hammering town), after another (pushing Vinkah to the point where he replaces out), after another (being unable to draw a NK), after another (having to claim), after another (pursuing townOversoul), after another (effectively aiding Nacho's intent to draw a shot from implosion) after another (being unable to articulate how clear it is in my mind that Tammy's role should necessarily give you, if not total 100% comfort that my role claim is genuine, at least a strong sense of doubt in the possibility that I'm scum ... and this isn't speaking to you necessarily, ffrey, moreso to pie/ns). So the culmination of all those things gives me pains in my stomach that are only being prolonged as I feel like I see the writing on the wall going into D4.

Subject: DEFCON Mafia 3.0 - Over, American Victory!

RedCoyote wrote:I see your point, inHim. My intention is not to derail the AV wagon but to prop up the dana wagon.

Mmm, this is a bit frustrating now because I see where y'all are coming from. I wasn't intending to pull any sort of trick. I, uh, I think I'm being a little too analytical and distant for my own good here. I think I'll just stop talking for a while.

Combing through my memory banks, this is probably the closest I can get to the genuine, "crap, I wish I had done something things different" that I am having in this game. Here is a situation where I was lynched on D1 after actually being seen as relatively townie most of the day. My top scumread at the time was the leading wagon and I was riding high. Late into the day, I suggested that another wagon should also get some attention so that the town may benefit further down the line from an atmosphere where there were two competing wagons, but I phrased it poorly and was pounced on by a number of players. As I tried to clarify my comments, I seemed to be digging myself into a deeper hole which led to the quoted post. I thought the best thing I could do when I saw myself in real danger of being lynched was to try and take a step back and tell everyone that I would remove myself from the conversation. I think it's easy to draw a line between what I am doing in the quoted post with what I am doing in this game.

Subject: Open 226: Big Love - Game over! Town wins!

RedCoyote wrote:I'm sorry. I want to really make a good post, but I just don't really disagree with Ythill. I want to come in an make some super convincing post, but I'm just no match for those intellecutal muscles of his. Honestly I'm not even trying to butter him up, these are just really solid posts. hito, too, has got a good flow going. I don't see mallow giving us any alternatives to look at, and I don't really disagree with his wagon.

Subject: Open 226: Big Love - Game over! Town wins!

RedCoyote wrote:Ugh, I had to go re-read my PM. Ythill had me convinced I was scum.

Seriously though, I really feel bad. Ythill is putting more effort into this game than I've ever seen anyone do in a game of mafia. I simply don't have that level of dedication.

Now, like the above scenario where I said that was probably the closest match to my own personal mood, this is probably closest to "ffrey, I'm sorry. I feel like I let this town down." I replaced into this game very late, but Ythill replaced in even later. From the start I never really was able to get a good feel for the game, and, not long after replacing in, two of my big scumreads flipped town. That took a blow to my self-esteem and scumhunting ability. So much so that I effectively conceded that Ythill's reads were stronger and better than anything I could come up with. I was so in the tank for Ythill that I made that second post I quoted. Again, highly emotional. The reason for these quotes were due to the fact that I was not confident in my scumhunting abilities (and, in fact, the only reason we won that game was due to heavy scum lurking) and that I basically allowed myself to take a completely passive role for the remainder of the game until lylo.

I don't think Eclipse is a good comparison to this game. It just struck me as odd that you posted about how bad you've gotten at scumhunting as I was reading that game.

I'll look at the game you've linked. Thanks!

fferyllt · Tue Sep 01, 2015 8:56 am

I'm also curious what you made of my 3042?

fferyllt · Tue Sep 01, 2015 9:08 am

Ok, reading through that (won't be until a couple hours before I can settle down again and read the contexts of your links), this is the problem I have. If you're town, and you're lynched today, then that's it. Town loses. The best outcome we could hope for is a chance to play kingmaker with Implosion vs whoever if he's SK and not Vig.

This is not the time to give up regardless of your alignment. If you're town, you're my teammate and I've played most of the game assuming you are.

I don't feel like my meta dive has been conclusive. Mostly it just frustrated me to see you CARING about some shitty game situations and demanding more of town than you were getting. This isn't a shitty game. Whoever is scum here, they've played good, strong games to the extent that sorting at this point is way more like pure PoE than typical scumhunting/townhunting.

fferyllt · Tue Sep 01, 2015 9:11 am

In post 3049, RedCoyote wrote:3042? I addressed it. See the very top paragraph of 3044.

My question is really more one of do you feel like I've misinterpreted or misread the games I've commented on? Even without finding close matches to this game on my own, I'd like to know if I'm at all right about what I've seen as motivations in your town game.

fferyllt · Tue Sep 01, 2015 9:32 am

Ok.

And notsci is your strongest townread?

fferyllt · Tue Sep 01, 2015 9:41 am

In post 2965, RedCoyote wrote:I really don't want to play this game anymore. I can't even look at it without feeling distraught.
What are we doing, ns?

I've been assuming he is because of this question.

fferyllt · Tue Sep 01, 2015 10:31 am

Why would a wicked/redcoyote/nacho team play day 3 the way they did?

fferyllt · Tue Sep 01, 2015 11:01 am

bulletproof.

fferyllt · Tue Sep 01, 2015 1:37 pm

The way RC played it was bound to get attention after oversoul's flip though. Nacho's decision to change his claim was dangerous, especially to RC.

Who were they seeing as the player to go deep after all that?

fferyllt · Tue Sep 01, 2015 1:57 pm

I agree on Wicked. Not convinced on RC.

fferyllt · Tue Sep 01, 2015 3:05 pm

I don't know. p sure I"ll have to figure it out though.

fferyllt · Tue Sep 01, 2015 3:31 pm

In post 3088, pieguyn wrote:
In post 3087, pieguyn wrote:or they thought RC might have been able to argue his way out of it (which I don't think is actually *that* difficult to do)

as testimony to this, the Team Mafia game where sthar had a huge shitstorm in response to the Mala wagon forming and people (myself included) read him as incompetent town bc there was no way he would do something that ridiculously dumb as scum

but either way I think Wicked is more likely.

Who in this player list was going to be dismissed as incompetent town?

I agree Wicked is more likely.

fferyllt · Tue Sep 01, 2015 3:41 pm

All kinds of things could have happened. A skipped kill to appear a vig as long as possible? because his n2 kill was blocked? Or maybe it was the scum kill that was blocked (tammy was JK'd) and his kill was S-s.

fferyllt · Tue Sep 01, 2015 3:43 pm

In post 3099, notscience wrote:Why would scum-nacho who would basically know the 3p at that point in time basically throw his life away to him?

he wouldn't know 3p vs vig though, unless the scum team is 2 players. Which is why I wanted to look at day 1 again and see if he appeared to be genuinely scumhunting in retrospect.

fferyllt · Tue Sep 01, 2015 4:28 pm

In post 3105, Wickedestjr wrote:implosion, if you were/are an SK, who would you have killed night 1?

this question looks really out of touch with what apparently happened on n1.

ugh

fferyllt · Tue Sep 01, 2015 4:33 pm

he claimed the gnomeo kill.

fferyllt · Tue Sep 01, 2015 4:41 pm

It's a strange way to word the question, but it's not as worldview-wrecking as what I thought you were asking. So, yay?

fferyllt · Tue Sep 01, 2015 6:24 pm

9-3-1 mini normal game: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=29652

2-shot joat
odd night doctor
inno child
6 VT

3 mafia goons

SK with 1 shot commute

fferyllt · Wed Sep 02, 2015 8:41 am

That's actually my tinfoil hat say it ain't so theory now that my tinfoil hat theory about nacho and tammy has imploded.

fferyllt · Wed Sep 02, 2015 5:24 pm

Do you see it as scum-wincon-furthering behavior?

fferyllt · Wed Sep 02, 2015 6:03 pm

Notsci when did you stop being insanely paranoid about me?

fferyllt · Wed Sep 02, 2015 6:18 pm

I asked because of this post you made on day 2.

In post 1585, notscience wrote:This could just be me but I think my scum meta is more intricate than tunneling or not (which, us wrong seeing as I'm town)

I'd direct you to pie but she's scumreading me and I'm not sure she scumreads me along with a buddy after bins game so.

If you are one for selfmeta, a lot of my scumgame revolves around buddying my friends (which could arguably be said about fery here- me buddying nacho would have come off as off because I'm normally insanely paranoid of him. I wouldn't want pie to get too close and then Tammy hasn't really been a big factor (which also this bugs me btw)). I would join wagons based off of others stances and try to break u fights, taking every instance to make a post with genuine emotion. I would also aim to start some stupid off topic discussions to detract from the point at hand.

So meh.

fferyllt · Wed Sep 02, 2015 6:21 pm

I kinda wish I had been nk'd on n1.

fferyllt · Wed Sep 02, 2015 6:25 pm

Anyway, I remember thnking it was odd that I wasn't in the "insanely paranoid about" pile with Nacho when I first read that, and rereading tonight, I decided to ask.

fferyllt · Wed Sep 02, 2015 6:28 pm

I read a recent scum and town game of wicked's to see if I could get some concrete feels for the differences in his game today. Then I started rereading the game tonight.

Wicked's day 1 looked pretty damn town. Day 2, also. But, I know I'm looking at a data channel that is incomplete. I put a lot of focus on tone and timing, but not so much the objective effect on the gamestate that stances and stance-changes make.

fferyllt · Wed Sep 02, 2015 6:34 pm

Yeah I followed that game somewhat just in case I needed to do a few VCs.

fferyllt · Wed Sep 02, 2015 6:40 pm

probably nothng I haven't already seen in other recent games. Though the last time you were scum against me was the ff10 game I think.

I have this huge, horrible blind spot wrt Nacho.

fferyllt · Wed Sep 02, 2015 6:48 pm

I'm more worried about pieguy than you.

S-s basically had nothing to say about pieguy that I can recall. I need to go back through his posts again.

I wish he'd been around more than day 2.

I keep wondering if it was his crumbs that got him killed or if he was a threat simply because of his background/abilities. I think they were crumbs, anyway.

fferyllt · Wed Sep 02, 2015 6:53 pm

In post 3151, notscience wrote:The thing that bothers me abotu pie is how long it took her to realize I was town.

I understand heat of the moment type things but I just kinda expected her to read the emotion then and there but at the same time I liked the way she did do it so i dont really know?

But nacho's point regarding pie not being this emotio anlly manipulative as scum is almost exactly what happened in the me v sakura spat in 1674. I know im town and an outside third party (scum) is whiteknighitng someone on that premise but the parallels of that third person being pie in the first and the person i was against being her this game just feels funny to me.

Nacho made that same point about pieguy in the game that he, tammy, S-s and I played just before this one started.

fferyllt · Wed Sep 02, 2015 6:55 pm

In that game we (Sangres) were hard defending Pieguy much of day 1 and it was like the centerpiece of his case for town-pie.

here, it was kind of a throwaway. Too many players would expect him to say something like that if he didn't maybe.

fferyllt · Wed Sep 02, 2015 7:01 pm

It would be a pretty good distraction.

he will often mediate town v town stuff as either alignment. I'm thinking about his mediating between f-16 and Tammy in the Tales of You game as an example of him doing it as scum. This game, at the very least he wasn't going out of his way to do that.

fferyllt · Wed Sep 02, 2015 7:09 pm

I dunno. :/

Probably? I haven't played enough games with you and pieguy both in the player list to understand how your reads of each other were developing. Do you think Nacho has?

I kinda felt like if pie was town she *had* to realize you were town too. By the end of day 2 I felt like you'd gone solidly town. I was blown away that pie saw your play so differently.

fferyllt · Thu Sep 03, 2015 5:50 am

In post 3161, pieguyn wrote:I don't understand why you all are flipping out on each other when that's exactly how Wicked/RC plan on winning this game. both of you are players who drop a bunch of town tells as town that you're incapable of faking as scum regardless of anything else that happens in the game. both of you have town told a bunch of times over the course of the game. I don't think either of you would just walk in here and play a ridiculous scum game out of nowhere.

I would comment on the reasoning behind it but most of it seems like he-said-she-said type reasoning where it's either true or it's not. so I don't really know what I should do to convince you two each other are town here.

sometime when I have more time I can go back and elaborate more on why I think the Nacho/Wicked/RC interactions make sense as scum x scum.

Your comment about a meta circle in the Forest Fire game is relevant to how I feel about this game.

There's been a (looser) meta circle in this game from the start, and now we're down to 6 players and three of them are able to read each other based on deep experiential meta. And lo, we're townreading each other and looking in the players we don't know well for scum. Or maybe it's just me, and you and notsci have enough games with them to know when they towntell.

And we're putting our own reads of each other above setup spec.

Maybe it's that simple. It makes me itch to think it is that simple.

I'm looking at cold meta and rereading the game again because I owe it to every player to read them to the best of my ability.

fferyllt · Thu Sep 03, 2015 5:54 pm

No it hasn't been easy to this point. Not at all.

What looks like a solution from this point and my vantage feels too easy though.

fferyllt · Thu Sep 03, 2015 6:03 pm

I dunno. it seems pretty far out there as non-normal roles go. But, in a game with a town rolecop it's basically a godfather.

Empire's large normal ny169 had a gunsmith/vig, but no non-normal role at all iirc. I need to check something about that game.

fferyllt · Thu Sep 03, 2015 6:05 pm

Yeah there was a joat who I thnk was gunsmith-immune.

fferyllt · Thu Sep 03, 2015 6:10 pm

Mafia Miller isn't a thing in the wiki, even on the bastard roles page. It's not mentioned in the normal guidelines thread either.

fferyllt · Thu Sep 03, 2015 6:12 pm

In post 0, N wrote:Update 5 July
Some more (minor) changes have been made to the guidelines. Again, this only affects any games that have not begun design.
Any new roles (i.e., not on the wiki) should flip with their full role pm (redactions permitted)
Rolecops investigating a new role (i.e., one not of the wiki) should receive the full role pm (minus alignment, redactions permitted) as their result
Neapolitan is considered a Normal role

Millers can only be Town-aligned

fferyllt · Thu Sep 03, 2015 6:15 pm

In post 3180, notscience wrote:No, totally ignoring that.

Gunsmith-immune JoaT

RC has been claiming his role has to exist because a rolecop exists.

it was a scum joat. 3 goons and a joat.

p-edit I don't know, but I don't think he was. let me see if I can find role pms in the postgame.

fferyllt · Thu Sep 03, 2015 6:20 pm

The role pms weren't published. The mod qt: http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/keFgwn3NfXpp

2 Town Masons
1 Town Vigilante
1 Town Gunsmith
1 Town Jailkeeper
11 Vanilla Townies

1 Mafia Encryptor
1 Mafia Jack of All Trades (1x Roleblock, 1x Doctor, 1x Role Cop)
1 Mafia Tracker
1 Mafia Goon

fferyllt · Thu Sep 03, 2015 6:29 pm

wouldn't have to be his role. just a role on his team.

fferyllt · Thu Sep 03, 2015 6:37 pm

maybe? gunsmith was a fad in large normal games for a while. Between 167 and 172 I was in 3 large normals with gunsmiths. Nacho was in two of them.

he was also in the micro game with a cop, role cop, 2 millers and a godfather. If there's a godfather, a miller claim would have made sense against a potential cop maybe?

fferyllt · Thu Sep 03, 2015 6:47 pm

In post 3194, implosion wrote:I mean it might make sense if he has a godfather on his team (he would have to be not-the-godfather for it to make sense). But then again if there's a godfather, I think a miller also makes sense to compliment it in this setup.

This is the scenario I wondered about when RC claimed miller on day 2.

The thing that makes me think he could be town is the way he went all in with his oversoul push. I don't see what the payout for that was.

fferyllt · Thu Sep 03, 2015 7:52 pm

In post 3205, pieguyn wrote:
In post 3195, fferyllt wrote:The thing that makes me think he could be town is the way he went all in with his oversoul push. I don't see what the payout for that was.

the same reason I pushed Chandra the way I did in S&S2?

now that I think about it more, I think scum probably basically needed a town lynch that day? if Nacho got lynched, for instance, and then Wicked (or whoever else is scum if it's not him) got vig'd, it'd be 1-5 with just him left needing 2 mislynches.

I still don't think it's remotely difficult to argue your way out of mega-leading a lynch on town especially *if* he was going for the same kind of thing I did in S&S2 hoping to ride off "he believed his push" cred. so I'm still not sure why you think it wouldn't have been worth it.

It's the way he did it, specifically trying to link me as scum with Oversoul or at least browbeat me into voting before I was ready to. With an oversoul flip, all that linkage evaporates, and he's left with whatever I make of his motivations.

meh. a scumteam with nacho alive could probably predict my reactions fairly well.

fferyllt · Fri Sep 04, 2015 6:06 am

I don't often say this with a week on the clock, but I don't think I'm going to get much more out of this game day. We're mostly arguing in circles.

fferyllt · Fri Sep 04, 2015 4:07 pm

In post 3224, notscience wrote:Why do I think RC was the centerfold of Oversoul getting lynched? How vehemently he pushed it. How he started to discredit when pie and I linked up to vote Nacho.

Well I will tell you flat out I won't go picking an argument with a friend like that for no reason as scum, let alone my buddy. You're welcome to check, but I highly doubt you'll find one. Scumgames of mine- Disney Upick, Survivor Mafia, Plants vs Zombies, Nightingale's Tale, Whatever bulge's large normal was, and you can find more in my ego search.

Ffery, when you've seen me scum, do I ever?
(Hint: the only time I've ever gotten that aggressive was a game long ago that I refused to replicate after. And that was with ETL, let alone pie.)
Generally when I've faked emotion as scum (which hasn't really happened in a while) it was based off of me reading into other people's emotions, knowing they're town and seeing the tvts tear me apart. (This was PvZ.) Especially in recent times, I've tried to withhold some of my emotion, because so many games have gotten to just toxic nightmares.

I replaced into the slot you were tunneling so I remember that game vividly! The emotion I remember you faking in the FF10 game was a sort of deer in the headlights confusion (which I've seen you exhibit as town). During mid-late day 1 and parts of day 2 I worried at times you were doing something similar here, but basically starting with your interactions with S-s I mostly stopped worrying about that.

And we have ffery saying that pie not being able ot fake that emotion was the centerfold of Nacho's towncase on her another game, so what do you think? And let's look at how long it took her to snap out and realize the emotion and compare it to Bins's Mini normal- she could tell right as she got in the thread what was happening and yanked the brake. Here, she was so caught up in her tunnel she had to come back and see it.

Did you take a look at that game?

fferyllt · Fri Sep 04, 2015 4:15 pm

Not in games I played or read.

Iso nacho to see how often he mentioned RC on day 3.

fferyllt · Fri Sep 04, 2015 4:30 pm

In post 2701, RedCoyote wrote:I don't have anything to contribute at this time. It's clear that neither Oversoul nor Nacho will happen until Tammy gets back. Oversoul is in full blown hiding under the desk mode here. ffrey doesn't have the guts to stand up for her convictions (whatever these may be, she is so adept at hiding her actual intentions here that it's scary ... with the exception of her latest "getting scummy vibes from implosion" which is completely unhelpful in our current situation). notscience is still presumably siding with pie (remember when he was convinced she was scum...?) I doubt Tammy will bring anything new to the thread that we haven't already heard before.

*goes back to watching the countdown timer tick down while we wait for Tammy*

It's amazing how much creditability ffrey has lost with me over the course of this day. She was literally, like, my number 2 or 3 townie at the start of today. Unless Nacho flips scum (or Oversoul flips town), she is totally on my lynch list at this point. She is running a clinic on how to act townie in a technicial sense, but completely come across as scummy on a gut, intuitive level, if that makes sense.

Look at this post. he just happens to lay out 2 conditions for dropping his scumread on me that both turned out to be true. :/

I just don't get the point of this as a scum strategy for next day phase.

fferyllt · Fri Sep 04, 2015 4:36 pm

Not precisely. I ended day 1 with a lot of worries. I know I wanted more engagement from you, nacho and pie, I was concerned about RC's hammer post and about layla's fade. And I still had concerns about cheetory.

fferyllt · Fri Sep 04, 2015 4:40 pm

In post 3233, notscience wrote:Do you think pie would be able to fake that engagement with me fery?

I don't.

I feel like I ruled out 2-1-10 based on Nacho's day 1, or I'd be worrying pretty hard about wicked as final scum and Implosion as SK rather than looking for 2 nacho partners.

I wish I felt more confident about my reads.

fferyllt · Fri Sep 04, 2015 4:42 pm

In post 3235, notscience wrote:So if Nacho's really good at recognizing your thought patterns and all of that do you think he'd anticipate RC's hammer would tip you off?

maybe. I have a tendency to focus on weird stuff at end of day and assume weird-scummy rather than weird town initially. When we hydra he usually talks me out of some end of day kneejerks that I'd otherwise take a while to let go.

fferyllt · Fri Sep 04, 2015 4:51 pm

Day 3, Nacho talked about RC a lot TO Wicked, going over hisw reasons for his read flip on day 2. he didn't respond directly to RC much comparatively.

he also ignored you and pie. I think the only reason he focused on me at all was because I voted him and basically demanded he do somethng more than argue with Wicked. he also focused on Implosion as possible scum, and casebuilding to lynch Oversoul.

fferyllt · Fri Sep 04, 2015 4:53 pm

In post 3238, notscience wrote:What do you think of wicked's stuff recently?

he sounds out of steam.

fferyllt · Sat Sep 05, 2015 7:21 am

Why RC over Wicked?

fferyllt · Sat Sep 05, 2015 10:22 pm

2 am posting is a thing. I'll be coherent sometime tomorrow.

fferyllt · Sun Sep 06, 2015 10:14 am

Implosion, if we no-lynch and you are the NK who should be lynched tomorrow? If you're alive who should be lynched tomorrow?

fferyllt · Sun Sep 06, 2015 1:34 pm

In post 3278, Wickedestjr wrote:Also, I don't understand why people are accusing and agreeing that I'm "out of steam" when, while I've lost interest, I'm still trying and I'm actually not the only one who's exhibiting this trait.

It was my comment. It was an observation about the tone and sense of effort I got from your recent posts. It had nothing to do with the frequency of your posts.

fferyllt · Sun Sep 06, 2015 3:38 pm

In post 3282, Wickedestjr wrote:
In post 3281, fferyllt wrote:It had nothing to do with the frequency of your posts.

It felt like that's why I was being scum read. E.g. you said my play days 1-2 was really townish yet now I appear to be your favorite lynch option and I can't think of anything that's changed aside from posting frequency (because you
also
haven't said anything beyond this and POE that I can recall).

ridiculously small niggles about you that started on day 2 have compounded. The meta circle worries me because small niggles about players I know and feel like I have successfully read in prior games are also in play, but I know how to go about reading them. It's why I read some prior games and reread this one. Cold meta isn't comparable to experiential meta but it's better than nothing.

Eh maybe I'm self-biased, but I feel like I've been putting similar effort in. If you are honest when you say you can't see that, then I don't know how - maybe it
is
school and shrinking motivation both sneaking into my posts here. I think those are both plausible explanations that I'm not the only player using.

I didn't put a value judgment on loss of steam. It affects all alignments. IME scum like to induce apathy in town, but scum get apathetic too.

I'm inclined to think you're town and that the game is in your hands tomorrow (assuming implosion dies), in which case I really hope you're not dead set on voting with NS/Pie tomorrow. Are you?

I'm probably one of the most paranoid, second-third-nth guessing players on MS.

fferyllt · Sun Sep 06, 2015 5:06 pm

heh. I feel the same way about Wicked's post.

fferyllt · Mon Sep 07, 2015 1:54 pm

I'm going to hammer in approx 12 hours.

fferyllt · Mon Sep 07, 2015 2:04 pm

fferyllt · Wed Sep 09, 2015 5:28 pm

In post 3299, notscience wrote:Hey, ffery

I want your team thoughts again

Why mine?

fferyllt · Wed Sep 09, 2015 5:43 pm

I think wicked is scum. If it had been feasible, I would have preferred a wicked lynch to nolynch. I have trouble seeing pieguy and redcoyote on the same team, though I'm not sure which I'd vote for in 3p lylo if we don't lose today. I realize my pieguy read is laced with massive paranoia. I don't think she'd play another garden wall scum game here if she were scum.

fferyllt · Wed Sep 09, 2015 5:51 pm

I didn't reread overnight because superstition. I feel like I've dissected days 1-3 down to component atoms. I will go back through day 4 again before I put down a vote.

fferyllt · Wed Sep 09, 2015 6:01 pm

you're confident because you don't see scum-pie playing day 3 the way she did?

fferyllt · Wed Sep 09, 2015 6:05 pm

also, I'm kinda lolling.

fferyllt · Wed Sep 09, 2015 6:14 pm

there's no such thing as transparent enough.

fferyllt · Wed Sep 09, 2015 6:15 pm

What would scum-pie have done differently?

fferyllt · Thu Sep 10, 2015 3:53 pm

I can't really wrap my head around 3323. this is lylo. If you're town then fuck the voting bloc. Figure out your strongest pick for scum.

fferyllt · Thu Sep 10, 2015 5:36 pm

In post 3326, RedCoyote wrote:
In post 3325, fferyllt wrote:I can't really wrap my head around 3323. this is lylo. If you're town then fuck the voting bloc. Figure out your strongest pick for scum.

VOTE: Wicked

The irony isn't lost on me.

And I wasn't suggesting you throw down a vote right away.

fferyllt · Thu Sep 10, 2015 5:46 pm

meh.

that didn't work out so great in my last mylo.

fferyllt · Fri Sep 11, 2015 3:13 am

Probably.

fferyllt · Fri Sep 11, 2015 9:35 am

I kinda want to vote RC now.

fferyllt · Fri Sep 11, 2015 11:31 am

fferyllt · Fri Sep 11, 2015 11:47 am

trying to figure out if this gamestate does anything more than confirm one piece of what I've been thinking since day 4.

It doesn't.

fferyllt · Fri Sep 11, 2015 12:13 pm

That there is no scumteam you/pieguy.

fferyllt · Fri Sep 11, 2015 1:03 pm

In post 3352, notscience wrote:When did that become a thought? I remember going into that day yo usaid it was us or them.

Some time during my rereads and isos. I started day 4 thinking it was remotely possible you and pieguy have pulled one over, and maybe more likely than wicked or RC with either of you. I wasn't quite able to rule it out as a possibility, but it became very low likelihood.

Now it's effectively ruled out unless you'd choose to slow-roll for some bizarre and incomprehensible reason. All the rereading, looking for reasons to be wrong in my reads, I can sometimes contemplate one of wicked or RC not being scum, but it's not an idea that has much traction or sticking power. I keep coming back to the same place.

Town Rolecop, JK, 2-shot vig, {miller}

vs, goon, ??, ??, and one of the question marks would have to suggest a cop for a right off the bat miller fake claim to make sense.

I don't know if it even makes sense to keep going over this now.

fferyllt · Fri Sep 11, 2015 1:08 pm

And then there are today's posts.

You seem more interested in proving who you're not scum with than anything else. And maybe that makes sense. Stances are pretty calcified. Except RC's vote today.

fferyllt · Fri Sep 11, 2015 1:20 pm

Setup spec is why I keep coming back to lynchng wicked first.

fferyllt · Sat Sep 12, 2015 5:31 am

Why did you decide to vote wicked rather than pieguy?

fferyllt · Sat Sep 12, 2015 5:59 am

It looked like you inteneded to do just that (vote pie) at the start of the day.

In post 3323, RedCoyote wrote:I see my hand as forced to side with Wicked today whether I want to or not insomuch as the votes appear to be shaking out as ns and pie teaming up against me, just as they teamed up to vote Nacho. This leaves me with little choice where to place my vote. I essentially have to vote either ns or pie. There's no other option for me.

It's funny that I was so critical of ffrey for not choosing between Oversoul and Nacho earlier when she didn't have to but could've. It appears she'll no longer have the luxury of procrastinating.

Let me put it this way, if I was in ffrey's spot, I'd vote me. Then again, I think she's a better town player than I am

In post 3324, RedCoyote wrote:I do wish there was a way we could cast our votes without fear of a quickhammer from someone, however. I foresee an anti-climatic ending to this game today. I'm not sure how we get around that.

In post 3326, RedCoyote wrote:
In post 3325, fferyllt wrote:I can't really wrap my head around 3323. this is lylo. If you're town then fuck the voting bloc. Figure out your strongest pick for scum.

VOTE: Wicked

fferyllt · Sat Sep 12, 2015 6:07 am

So you made post 3323 and 3324, a half hour later I posted, and then a half hour after that you voted.

fferyllt · Sat Sep 12, 2015 6:34 am

What does the rolleyes smilie mean in post 3326?

fferyllt · Sat Sep 12, 2015 6:50 am

In post 3376, RedCoyote wrote:I honestly can't tell if you are overestimating me or underestimating me at this point, but my only hope at winning this game is if I can connect with you. Don't you get that?

I want to scream that I am pouring my heart out to you. I want to cry and yell and ask you why you can't feel me. Why can't the authenticity that's pouring out of me translate over these little words on the screen?

I see the reach-out. I'm not discounting it.

fferyllt · Sat Sep 12, 2015 7:05 am

fferyllt · Sat Sep 12, 2015 7:09 am

To work on my pieguy paranoia.

fferyllt · Sat Sep 12, 2015 7:11 am

Probably not. But Nacho would.

fferyllt · Sat Sep 12, 2015 7:18 am

On night 2? Maybe, at least as a possible scenario. Mislynching town-pie would have been one of the tactics for even reaching lylo.

In a game where suspicion really swirls around me, the optimal scum strategy is to convince me that I need to be gone before lylo so I do half the work of mislynching me. Nacho would definitely have talked about that. And I felt like day 3 had a little of that aroma to it.

fferyllt · Sun Sep 13, 2015 5:43 pm

fferyllt · Sun Sep 13, 2015 6:08 pm

Who do you plan to vote?

fferyllt · Sun Sep 13, 2015 6:33 pm

I'm not sure.

I've come into this thread about 4 times planning to put down a vote, read the previous 3-4 pages, and wind up back at hellifino.

fferyllt · Sun Sep 13, 2015 8:02 pm

Wicked's right. I do want to vote him.

fferyllt · Mon Sep 14, 2015 5:57 am

If I could come up with a line of questioning that could differentiate, I would follow it.

Whoever is scum here, they're in a blind spot relative to my style of scumhunting. I cam come up with differences in play/stances/decisions, but I don't have a sense that they are alignment indicative.

From you're perspective, if you're town, RC has to be scum. Where in his play prior to neither of you getting hammered did he come off as scum to you? Or comes off that way in retrospect?

fferyllt · Mon Sep 14, 2015 6:09 am

the reach-out in the last paragraph of 3376 came off as awkward. But, that could be due to it not being something RC usually does in games.

In post 3376, RedCoyote wrote:I honestly can't tell if you are overestimating me or underestimating me at this point, but my only hope at winning this game is if I can connect with you. Don't you get that?

This part looks a little odd because "my only hope at winning this game" looks like it could be truth from a scum perspective or from a town perspective.

RC's a veteran player with tons of experience and a preference for scum roles. If he were scum, wouldn't he have put that little bit of extra tospin on the comment? Or is he a player who thinks references to "we" come off as a scum affectation. Or why not "town's only hope at winning this game"?

I used to read a ton into comments like this when I played on sites with relatively small pools of mafia players and relatively homogenous site metas.

I'm afraid to do that here.

fferyllt · Mon Sep 14, 2015 3:49 pm

sorry, town.

I really couldn't make up my mind.

fferyllt · Mon Sep 14, 2015 3:52 pm

I came into the thread intending to vote Wicked 4 or 5 times during the last week, and waffled.

I don't know if it would have mattered.

I'm sorry anyway, though, RC.