Mini Normal 2285: GM [game over]

[Val89]

i am hopeful of a 2-1 Welsh win

Mae’n ddrwg gen i.

VOTE: geraintm

[Val89]

Oh look, a scumclaim!

Thanks for making the game so easy.

VOTE: Scoliosis

[Val89]

@val why is the vote a scumclaim ?

Not the vote - the post. It is an attempt at a fake dumb tell. Are you trying to get a read on the author of post 6 from the RVS posting here?

I say it's fake rather than genuine, as KT seems to suggest, because of KTs vote/unvote. Scoliosis trying to draw 3 reads (and two scum ones at that) from the RVS shit posting that went on before post 20 screams 'try harding', but if you a seriously try harding, do you serious think KT moving their vote around is something less AI than two "Hi <vote>" posts, and not bother looking into that?

We know KT was shit posting because Toto is IC, but Scoliosis is trying to dumb tell they didn't notice and need to give a read on post 6 - its internally inconsistent.

[Val89]

The IC post would be easy to miss for me

Easy to miss in general? Sure, maybe.

Easy for the player who is try-harding enough to draw something AI from 3 'hi' posts? Not buying it.

I double don't buy it when I note the slots Scoliosis didn't comment on - KT, because the voting pattern specifically drew attention to Toto, and FlippyNips, who also didn't vote (and if fact explicitly disclaimed voting D1).

I'm wanting to give this a bit of space now, but I do also want to encourage people to actually think through the thought process that results in post 20 and evaluate if it actually makes sense before handing out free passes.

I understand the tendency to shrug and say 'eh, whatever' since I know we aren't catching scum in the first page most of the time, but if that is the conclusion you come to let's make that a considered conclusion at least.

[Val89]

VOTE: skitter30

[Val89]

@Scoliosis: Do me a favour and explain the thought process that results in post 20, will you?

Did you realise Toto was IC, or no? Why do you say my post and Tetrarossa's were scummy? Most importantly, what contrasted the 3 posts you commented on with the others you didn't - notably, why did Totos lack of vote draw comment and not Flippy's, nor geraints? Did KTs posting not interest you at all?

[Val89]

Like ig i'm kinda confused how kittytacky can start off liking 20 and then move to disliking it when other people find it scummy without scoliosis posting anything in between

1. They didnt post again at all tho, why are u treating that like they were ignoring you?

I think it's kinda weird to come to a totally different conclusion abt the same post at that point in the game when the pkayer in question hadnt posted anything at all in between

This has been objectively wrong on each occasion you've said it previously; and it remains wrong; but just to be clear - you are claiming you posted these in the belief that Scoliosis hasn't posted anyone of consequence since #20; and the "obviously town" read you gave yesterday was based entirely on post 20, and you didn't see that was the source of the church wagon you said you disliked?

[Val89]

What's 'objectively wrong' ?

This:

i don't get how he lost the initial townread so fast, especially since it partially seems based on scoliosis 'not ressponding to kittytacky's question'

when he hasnt posted at all since 20

Like ig i'm kinda confused how kittytacky can start off liking 20 and then move to disliking it when other people find it scummy

without scoliosis posting anything in between

1.

They didnt post again at a

ll tho, why are u treating that like they were ignoring you?

I think it's kinda weird to come to a totally different conclusion abt the same post at that point in the game when

the pkayer in question hadnt posted anything at all in between

I agree you can find someone town and not support a wagon they start, but if you actually believe what you are saying here, have you read #40/41 or not?

[Val89]

Correction: 41 and 42.

[Val89]

I ... don't know what i was thinking

No, me neither.

I thought you hadn't seen it; and your "obviously town" read was even more overblown then I originally thought it was, and you were handing those reads out without even paying attention to even a limited ISO; or you had seen it and were pushing on KT in bad faith. I don't know what I am supposed to make of your answer that you did see it but have made some sort of error as to the order it was posted.

I understand in general how a desire to generate content can be townie, but I am struggling to see how #20 can result from a genuine thought process. Scoliosis tells me they hope to answer those questions today (although I would have preferred them just be answered rather than told they will) and I'll see if I can get there; but if you think I am missing some obvious and want to posit why #17 and/or #19 could (at least initially) draw a scumread that doesn't equally apply to #7 or #12; or why (assuming your hypothesis about the IC being easy to miss is correct) there is anything different about the lack of vote in #6 with #8 or #18, I am listening.

Scoliosis is the only one who can tell us in the end, but I would feel a lot better about you if you could convince me at least

some

thought has gone into that content rather than declaring someone "obviously town" on the basis they posted

something

without stopping to see if that something makes sense.

[Val89]

I mean, the very fact you consider yourself to be unreadable at this point but considered Scoliosis to be not only readable, but obviously of one alignment is enough to give me serious pause about the genuineness of that read.

Double that when you ask me to believe you were actually trying to sort Kitty but failed to catch your own error.

[Val89]

tbf some people are open books and some take like a phd and three days to have a hint of alignment

If the suggestion here is Scoliosis is the former and skitter is the later, and that explains the disconnect; then I would be grateful if someone would share with the class what I'm supposed to be reading in that book because not only am I not currently seeing a reason to TR Scoliosis, I am scumreading that slot enough that its colouring my view of those slots that are expressing townreads there.

[Val89]

Independently, a scum lean, but not a particularly strong one; and I don't think they are likely to be scum together with Sco on whom I have a much stronger one.

I ask myself why, if you go to the trouble of playing with an alt, you abandon it in response to scumreads, and I wonder if the "hamstringing the ability to play" referred to in 156 actually means 'not getting TRd for stuff like 253 and 254 if people don't know who I am'. I don't know what those two posts do but I wonder if they are supposed to signal something to those more familiar with Ydrasse now they are outted and it feels a touch performative for my liking.

pedit: This in response to Toto

[Val89]

I don't know why he didnt mention my 7 or kittytacky's slew of posts, or 13, but i see why 17 and 19 are grouped together. The post is written from a coherent, fairly nuanced, pov given the fact that we were literally on post 20, and was trying to move the game along. It's a town post. I don't think neglecting to mention 7 or 13 means he's being arbitrary, i'm assuming there's some reason he had for considering them to be in a different category

I suppose this is the problem I have. I'm not content to handwave the glaring issue with it as 'well, there must be a reason' and declare it a town post.

Val is your argument for scoliosis-scum that 20 contains fake reads in an attempt to seem try-hard-y, and that it's fake for failing to look at other parts of the game that you consider more AI, and for not applying thr same standard to every rvs post?

I don't think I'm made a secret of what my problem with it is. Fake-reads, or more likely a fake-dumbtell with respect to Toto. We STILL don't have an answer as to if they did or did not realise Toto was IC at the point of posting #20. You say that it's easily missed, because you missed it, but I don't buy someone making a try-hardy post misses that, particularly when that slew of KT posts that were ignored specifically drew attention to Toto as IC. Maybe I can see someone not engaging enough to see the IC announcement also skimming through the early KT posts and not seeing the significance of that - but I don't see the same person being responsible for a "coherent, fairly nuanced" post belying a motivation to try and start finding scum also makes that mistake. You are correct in that I am applying a different standard to Sco, but I think there is more than enough justification for doing so.

It's as if post 20 is authored by two separate personas - the townie careful scum hunter wanting to move the game out of RVS; analysing the early posting carefully, latching on to a tiny scum ping and getting it out there to move the game forwards (and if that ended there, I would agree with you) and must have had a reason for categorising 17 and 19 differently from 7 or 13 that's so stuble and nuanced even you can't grasp it; but then there is also the second persona that derps over the IC, both the initial announcement and failing to notice the significance of KTs unvote/revote. There were other examples of people posting and not voting - both before and after Toto (Flippy, and geraintm).

I say it's improbable both exist together, and the fact they do is evidence of fakery in one half or the other.

[Val89]

i literally had 0 motivation to play up until the moment i decided to revert to my normal playstyle lol
it's not the first time i've done it

Okay; what is the purpose of these posts, then, if not to conform with some notion of how frivolous and carefree your Ydra persona plays that wasn't evident in the church one?

My cat is laying on me

He made me into a biscuit help

I realise I might not be the intended audience, so help me understand.

[Val89]

We STILL don't have an answer as to if they did or did not realise Toto was IC at the point of posting #20.

A simple yes or no will do the job for now, Scoliosis.

[Val89]

Nah I'll back you up on having a pocket scum read on skitter.

And yet; I am the only one voting her.

[Val89]

No, I had no idea, and it does change my opinion on the page 1 posts because I have seen scum vote the ic as a joke on page 1 before. My main motivation behind 20 was to choose suspects based on posts I have actually seen scum make on page 1.

OK, thank you. So you also did have an opinion on KTs posting you just didn't share, than has now changed with that realisation?

What difference did you see between mine and Tetra's posting, and Skitters and Herta's? I understand if you say you didn't realise Toto was IC why you wanted to give a read based on the lack of vote; but what was different about Toto's non-vote over flippys or geraintm's?

I apologise for bombarding you with questions, but I need to get to the bottom of this if I am to ever have a hope of working out if you are scum and skitter is just handing you a free pass, or if you have been TMId as town by a scum!skitter. It's WIFOMy, but I don't see scum!skitter coming out as strong from scum!sco this early.

[Val89]

i know the point of mafia is to think a lot about stuff but this is just Me

mafia is a social thing for me as much as it is a game and so i like to post sometimes without it being game related

Fair enough.

Ever picked up a townread for that sort of thing is the past?

[Val89]

whereas it seemed with val that they were actually reconsidering their position.

That analysis is correct, but all it's done if left me in a spot where I really don't know how to move forwards.

I'm reading the answers in 280 and there are a few things that don't seem to make sense and it takes extremely liberal doses of benefit-of-the-doubt with regardless to things left unexplained for me to get to a place where I can see #20 and the following explanations being genuine town thoughts with a genuine town derp.

One the other hand, I was surprised to see what appears to be an decent attempt at

trying

to explain that process; and I'm willing to believe you don't have to be intimately familiar with me to figure out even from my play so far that I am the type of player who is going to pick over those answers and evaluate carefully if they make sense - I was starting to get the idea Sco was hoping to dodge having to explain and not make an attempt; and he has proven himself willing to say "fuck you, not answering", even to claimed TRs - and I also think there is obvious negative scum utility to charging about pissing everyone off.

My take-away is that I'm only further convinced that, regardless of alignment, Sco is nowhere near the easy obvious townread skitter wants to believe he is - I still don't get there if I try and think about if from skitter's assumption that they are an experienced mafia player but unfamiliar with MS site meta; and if skitter had such a strong read that colours the way she is reading the rest of the game (cf: her read on KT at 65) that as predicated on such an assumption - and the fact we are told that read is suddenly null as soon as that assumption is challenged - why not evaluate that herself?

I stand by my evaluation that I don't think the two are paired but I think there are reasons to think both of them scummy enough I don't know which flip would be better today.

Anyone else who is TRing skitter want to explain to me why my vote is in the wrong place right now? Pookies "scum!skitter has a tendency to flake" doesn't cut it for me.

[Val89]

[i have not been very engaged so far this game, can you tell?]

Yes, unfortunately, you can.

I'm asking myself if scum!geraintm makes that post. My initial thoughts are that geraintm smells like LHF here - if scum!geraintm's game plan is to hang back and lurk it down, they could have done a better job without this. This "page 17 was a bunch of crap and that's important to note"; "my RVS vote is being shading by scum" etc seem like they could well be surface-level thoughts by town not really enganing.

Actually what is this your I'm an inept clown scum game? I've seen that before.

I have seen some hints scattered around that indicate perhaps those initial thoughts aren't to be trusted with geraintm in particular. I'm feeling a touch on the lazy side, so if someone who thinks there are meta reasons to be reading geraintm differently then pointers will be gratefully received.

[Val89]

Pookies 532 speaks to me; and I think Sco-Dann does have some equity.

That said; the Dann wallpost is

reasonable

and Herta is in fact a player I've been struggling to get a read on. Independently of that associative read with Sco, both Dann and Herta sit around null for me currently; and I can see both "Herta town on tone interacting with skitter" and "Herta scum because they are generally non-committal and vague" are both thoughts I can see town having, as is moving between them, although neither are particularly convincing to me. Given how I feel about this game right now, I don't think being non-committal and not really having a whole heap of outted opinions is particularly scummy here.

For the record, I'm also not one who thinks Tetra's pre-replacement ISO is anything that looks scummy and I find myself leaning town on Pooky.

[Val89]

Well you're right re geraintm and it took me a minute to think about it and I voted him out of frustration more than anything.

Right about what part?

He does, however, know how to use that as a scum tool -- I have seen him explicitly state it in scum PTs.

That's the sort of thing I was looking for, and if you have a specific game in mind I would be grateful.

That said, even if there is a record of them basically saying "my scum plan is to post level 0 thoughts on the game and get written off as LHF town" and had success with that I'm still not sure I could be confident I could distinguish that for actual disengagement on what he have so far, and geraintm feels too much like a consensus null-to-leanscum read to be a useful flip either way. It may push me away from the slight townlean I am getting from 572, but wouldn't have me supporting a wagon there unless there is a night-and-day difference.

If this is their scum meta and there is a significant enough difference with their townplay to actually have a good chance of hitting scum there, then happy days, but I don't think there are many players who last very long with such a detectable difference and my opinion is that geraintm is a bad flip today.

[Val89]

@Freedom; What is your read on skitter?

[Val89]

I don't really have any problem flippng a consensus null read (and in fact that is probably optimal play in some games) but I raise my eyebrows at people strongly scum reading the geraintm slot

Perhaps; but I don't see this is as one of those games.

I think both Sco and Skitter are independently scummy enough I could pull the trigger on either right now and think there is a much >rand chance of hitting scum in each, and I think a green flip on either would also go someway to tell us something about others; although I realise my conclusions there might not be shared by others.

[Val89]

I think I would be fine ending the day somewhere on Herta/Geran/Scol

[Would end day here]
Geran
Herta

@unwnd: What's the distinction you are making with Sco that puts him in a different category with skitter?

[Val89]

Scol is just the way he is. Everything I disliked about our exchanges sums up to him being an asshat, and asshats can still be town. Do I think he's town for being an asshat? Absolutely not. I don't want to excuse his behavior because I'd be really bitter if he were scum and started to think he fooled me by some theatrics. I'm not gonna let him think he's easily won my favor by being unapologetically himself.

Understood. So, you aren't actually fine with ending the day on Scol, despite 655, then?

[Val89]

In post 651, Herta wrote:
He does, however, know how to use that as a scum tool -- I have seen him explicitly state it in scum PTs.

That's the sort of thing I was looking for, and if you have a specific game in mind I would be grateful.

Nevermind, I found it. Would still like clarification as to what you think I am right about though? You think gera is LHF and regret the vote there?

[Val89]

why would i want o vote for someone today i think is mor elikely to be town than now?

Is that your actual read on Scol? More likely town than scum?

[Val89]

i am of the opinion that people who are run up and/or voted out day 1 are more likely to be town than scum

Okay. Gotcha.

Now, putting the wagon aside, do you think he is more likely town or not?

[Val89]

Your view that D1 is pants and is basically random is acknowledged; but even if it is totally random, sometime those dice roll in our favour and we do land on scum.

Pooky is theorising you are going anti-spew here, and your answer to us both isn't doing much to prove that incorrect.

[Val89]

I don't have you as scum though, I think I have you as town leaning, as scum you would not burn youtself this much trying to eliminate me. I'm not worth the effort.

I dislike that it's taken going into hammer range to drag this out of you. I'm also not convinced you don't know what anti-spew is given I've seen discussions on spew with you without challenge when looking at previous games; but that's a start.

I think a claim is in order.

[Val89]

Are you sure taking your foot off the gas is the best idea here?

I've been less than impressed with geraintm's play today but I do think they are perfectly capable of playing this "I hate D1 and refuse to participate in it" strategy as both alignments. Being both less cagey with the read on Sco and a quick claim might have pushed me to give them benefit-of-the-doubt and on to the Sco wagon since my vote isn't doing much on a vanity wagon presently, but this feels like wanting to take some time to confer.

[Val89]

Yeah, I need to release my mod confirmed info before someone gets hammered, very important.

I would consider doing so now then - I was just looking at where a cheeky hammer could come from if I vote geraintm myself here; but it occurs to me that self-hammer shenanigans are possible if I do (and might have been the motivation behind IVs unvote, in which case my previous question was a bit hasty).

[Val89]

VOTE: Scoliosis

E-2

Quick reminder that we might want to wait for Toto before going E-1 in case of quick hammer shenanigans.

[Val89]

Yes, after I posted 515, which explains where I first started to ruminate that geraintm might be scum, geraintm posted 572 which is exactly the kind of post I expected scum to make from his position. Even without already having built a cogent world view containing scum geraintm, I would have scumread him or anyone else for posting 572.

@Scoliosis: What was geraintm's position as you saw it when you wrote this?

I said before I had picked up a slight townping from 572 myself, and it was his later actions that swung the needle the other way.

[Val89]

Are you townreading gera now, Freedom?

[Val89]

It just looked to me like that 1022 was written with a town!gera assumed.

[Val89]

I defend Gera because this behavior is NAI for Gera and he's more likely town than scum here.

I'm sorry, but I can't see geraintm's play coming from town here anymore; unless he is consciously and deliberately throwing this town game in return for an easier time of it in their next scum game - which frankly is an absolutely shitty thing to do to those of us playing this one. I'm sure someone will correct me if I am mistaken, but I didn't see a refusal to claim being a feature of his D1 play previously and this in particular is a game where we have an IC hinting, if not explicitly claiming by 1075, that they are also an informed IC with info that can help evaluate the veracity of role-claims.

To my eyes, this goes both ways: it makes it harder to for scum to fakeclaim, but it also means town

should

claim in this position, since there is a higher than usual chance of a role-claim, particularly an unusual one, passing the ICs sniff-test and in this particular scenario, since the info is unknown in advance and the source of it when outted is mod-confirmed trustworthy, that being treated as sufficient town-evidence to dodge the lim that might otherwise come.

[Val89]

As I have said, I am not claiming anything.

Posting once a day is reasonable activity.

Weekends I am around less often, so don't think just because I am motnposting it is deliberate..

I think it's also clear that gera is laying out in advance his game plan here. I am starting to wonder, in fact, if gera WANTS to be limmed here - scum could just always claim VT here.

Two issues that come to mind is that I don't know how a theoretical town!gera doesn't realise with 2 and half days weekend days left how this lim isn't 90% locked in between them and Sco today - I am aware gera is telling us they thing Sco is town (simply because a wagon formed on them D1, right?) but town!gera also knows for sure a lim on them is a mislim, where there is still a chance, even a small one, of a Sco one still hitting scum.

The second that, even with all that evidence in the play other the last 2 day, I still don't know how we can best distinguish between scum (probably a goon, given the play) and bad town not only bad in a gameplay sense but also being shitty. The best chance is probably a claim (first) combined with Totos info, but I don't know how to force the claim here. My initial thought was to suggest Toto hopping off, running gera up to E-1 and giving Toto the hammer; but that does run the risk of losing Totos info if gera self-hammers, or a partner not on the wagon decides its worth the trade-off and its not the sort of info that appears on the role PM on flip.

[Val89]

Maybe someone will have an idea in that respect, otherwise I actually thing the best play here is to just lim Gera.

I don't really want to play along with the scum plan if that is what they were hoping would happen, but the thing is I don't really think I can say that a scum!Sco can't be bussing gera, particularly if they flip goon. I think Sco is scummy on the basis that I can't make the answers they give when questioned on things that seem out there make sense on questioning, the fact they continue to remain willing to attempt to explain is a point in their favour, and I could see a (less likely but possible world) where Sco is town but has just a widely divergent worldview on the game that I'm not understanding and finding them scummy as a result; whereas at this point the only way I can see a town!gera at this point is, as I said, someone willing to gimp this game for future advantage, and if we do mislim today, I would rather have the former around going forward than the later.

I don't think Sco's flip would give us much of a clue on gera's alignment either way, and vice-versa, actually, so that's pretty much the deciding factor for me.

pedit: Noted your posting. I'll post this as is then respond.

[Val89]

@val I think I have expressed the thought previously that players being run up day 1 to force claims is bad. It just means that at thr end of day 1 scum not only get a free kill, but get info about possible roles that town have. It is just bad eV for town in my opinion for a series of town roles to be flushed out so early

How many scum do you suppose are in this game?

If you are in a position D1 where you are forced to claim because you are wagoned, at least some of the persons on your wagon are persons who think your play is scummy enough to warrant that. I acknowledge your view that D1 is pants enough that any wagon reaching that range is likely to have scum help, but even you have to acknowledge they can't do it alone' and the chances of another TPR being flashwagoned if you do claim seem low; I don't see how you think a series of town roles will end up being flushed out with your claim.

If you think scum have wagoned you deliberately in order to force a claim, that's unfortunate; but it's tough shit at this point. You don't claim, you are getting limmed if I have anything to do with it. It's just too much +scum to do otherwise.

Also, let's be honest, if there is any game you should be claiming as town here, it is this one - in most games, it is true that unless you are claiming something super powerful or easily confirmable, the likelihood is you are getting limmed anyway despite the claim. Here, we have an IC saying they can help evaluate the veracity of the claim. If your claim fits with what info Totos has, there is a good chance we avoid your mislim today.

I am not trying to do badly in this game for any reason. That goes against the rules doesn't it? Everyone should always play to win.
I don't want to lose. I don't want to be eliminated.

You will have to forgive me for believing that if you are town you are

willing

to do badly in this game for an advantage at a future scum one. If even you truly, deeply, genuinely believe that it is +town EV to refuse to play D1, and that includes refusing the claim, then there are special circumstances in this game that mean that is not the case in this one in particular.

I've spelt them out. I don't believe you are stupid.

Your choices are to either claim, and if it matches with Totos info, possibly escape what you represent is a mislim, gain some towncred you can try to use to direct the lim away from your other townread and on to one of those you would prefer to go today at the expense of having outed in a game where there is an IC scum probably have to also target at some point anyway, in a position where if you don't, town is losing the use of whatever role you claim to have anyway.

Or you don't claim, and you get limmed, and town loses whatever role anyway, as well as a mislim. Certainly, I will be directing all my energies for the rest of this day phase into getting you limmed.

Not claiming here is so bad for town; and claiming so bad for scum scum and good for town that not claiming is absolutely a scumclaim, or absolutely idiotic and amounts to a townthrow, and I think you HAVE to see that, frankly.

[Val89]

There is a very nonzero chance we are just wasting our time on two town wagons and scum is sitting back laughing but whatever

Are you actually going to sit there and tell me you thing it is likely town!gera actually thinks it is in towns interest not to claim here?

If so, I think you have a very low opinion on their level of intelligence.

[Val89]

I mean even a VT who thinks to leave their claim ambiguous in hope that town will by some miracle give them enough benefit-of-the-doubt to move elsewhere in frustration, then scum might waste a shot on them has already demonstrated enough critical thinking ability in having that thought to know scum would have to be so poor as to get caught anyway if that is something that happens in a game with an outted informed IC when they are being proposed as a member of some many scum solves by basically the entire player pool as to be a realistic mislim for the rest of the game.

He is either scum or throwing. The other option, that gera is so stupid as to not see how he is throwing as town is a possibility that is so unlikely as to be disproved by the very fact he is here actually playing mafia with us and has won games as scum in the past with his strategy, which takes as least some base knowledge of how the game works. I don't see any other option here, and I'm trying desperately to make anything else fit.

[Val89]

Yes, I am aware that is something I need to work on.

I mean, I am desperately trying to find any realistic reason why town!gera would refuse to claim here; and the thought occurred to me that maybe he is a VT who hasn't accounted for the extra town value in claiming in this specific game with Toto in it (and how +scum not claiming is here), and is hoping to get away with not getting limmed if they don't claim, then bait a NK.

I decided that nobody can realistically believe that scum would actually take that shot at themselves while they have so much mislim potential (I think every scumteam I have seen floated in the last couple of days has gera as a member) and Toto exists.

Is that better?

[Val89]

Yeah, I see how it is.

UNVOTE:

I'm not ready to take gera's word for it on the self-hammer question, but my vote is ready to add to the gera wagon when necessary.

+1. Please claim, geraintm

[Val89]

I am giving no one a blank cheque to say "we had to vote them because they were stubbon" as a GOOJFC.

Except that is exactly what you are doing, isn't it?

I think you might have gotten away with this in any other game than this.

Here you saying "Hey guys! I'm town, and therefore don't want you to lim me" while an IC is saying "I have information that might clear you on a role claim" and your response in "Nah fam, I'm good." And this is your last chance to take advantage of it, because if you claim AFTER the info is outted, the obvious assumption if you have tailored the claim to fit. It has to be before, and not only do you have a chance to survive, you have the chance to be moderately cleared and take advantage of the towncred that results.

But no, it's bad for scum to get multiple claims so....go run someone else up instead?? What, do you think you are going to get to avoid claiming the rest of the game if enough people do fall for this and get impatient and flash wagon someone else?

What you are saying doesn't make sense. There might have been, at the start, a possibility you were being 'irrational' (and I think that's a very polite way to put it), but it's been explained to you by more people than you can possibly think all are scum why no town would play like this, and why scum would. You have to be scum, and in the 0.01% world you actually are 'irrational' enough to believe what you are saying then your presence is doing exactly what you claim you want to avoid - giving everyone and everyone a blank cheque to focus attention away from scum with your stubbornness. I want you gone.


VOTE: gertaintm

E-1.

[Val89]

any claim from me would be enough for you to unvote?

Just so we are clear, my answer to this is "Yes"; at least if it is an actual role claim that has a chance of jiving with Toto's info, and long enough for Toto to give thoughts on if we should be limming you or not.

[Val89]

geraint is almost certainly town and my vote on him is 100% policy at this point

I disagree - I think there is good chance this does turn out to be a scum flip.

I don't think I'm saying anything controversial to suggest at this point, in the world gera is ridiculous town, they have functionally claimed VT as this point anyway. I'll be disappointed in the play but otherwise happy to be proven wrong here if a TPR gera suddenly switches on, realises what's going to happen otherwise and full claims in his next post, and I will do what I said I would and immediately unvote until such time Toto has had a say on it if that happens.

I actually think this is a Hail Mary scumplay by someone who doesn't actually expect it to work, but figures there is nothing to loose and it's worth a shot, which is why I am expecting a goon (or at least a very low power scum) flip here, and why I think there are some legs in the idea Sco might be bussing. I might have exaggerated the probabilities when I said 0.01% in my last post, but like you,

I am

more than happy to policy here the low-probability lolcat town!gera anyhow; I just disagree strongly that he's almost certainly town, and saying so without challenge is probably playing into the scumplan here, even if you remain on the wagon.

[Val89]

like sure scum has no reason to do this

Wrong.

The reason for scum doing this is the same as any "too scummy to be scum" play.

Scum know that fakeclaiming in this game, with Toto, is so much more risky that normal. Usually, if you are scum running a fakeclaim play you are hoping either a) your claim isn't CC'd, and deflects the wagon on to someone else and you live another night and hopefully get another mislim out of the deal and b) even if you luck out and it is CCd, you've drawn out a TPR for your buddies as compensation for your loss.

This game, there is a chance option B just isn't happening - instead of being CC'd by the TPR, Toto says "Actually, your claim contradicts my info" and your lim is guaranteed without gaining scum any new info. Refusing to claim in the hope that we get inpatient and go flash wagon someone else - particulary with deadline approaching - is the absolute best play for scum here.

I find it interesting that despite the public narrative that gera is putting out (and yes, it doesn't really make sense anyway) of "D1 sucks so I never play it, but I'm town, I don't want to be limmed, I don't want scum to get more claims than necessary D1" - the only other bit of information that had to be teased out of him is "I think Sco is town and I would rather he not be the counter wagon either, go for Freedom, unwnd or Dannflor". I think it's worth in that any of those suggested counterwagons seem particularly realistic, and if they were, they risk forcing another claim. The obvious counterwagon that does achieve their objective is also one with realistic prospects of going through is also the only one they don't want - and remember: it's the only real TR gera has in the entire game and it's based on "scum!sco wouldn't burn his thread cred on me".

I say this for the same reason I pushed back against IV. "He is almost certainly town"; "scum has no reason to do this", etc are the exact thoughts that this play is designed to elicit, and they are incorrect. For one, I don't think scum!me would ever find myself in a situation since it's a consequence of his "fuck D1" strat, but I did find myself in a game where I looked like I was going over; I couldn't safely fake claim, and a VT claim was probably a death sentence, I absolutely would play it like this, with the upshot that maybe town fall for it and I do deflect the lim - so the assertion that scum has no reason just seems wrong to me.

[Val89]

I think it's worth pointing out that none of those suggested counterwagons seem particularly realistic, and if they were, they risk forcing another claim.

EBWODP

[Val89]

Show me a game where scum actually did this

Not sure what you are getting at, here.

Show me a game with an IC who says "I may be able to check role claims" and "I want to hear any further claims today before I release what I know to get max value." right before the point scum would normally have to decide if they are going to fake claim...

[Val89]

@Toto: Having looked in your ISO to quote that "I want to hear any further claims today before I release what I know to get max value." bit, something occurs to me: Only you know what you are sitting on, but do you think there is 'enough' value in it to massclaim?

I realise how much that would piss gera off, and maybe that's one reason I hope it just might...

[Val89]

Is https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... rmal_roles still the canonical list of what roles are considered normal, including complex set ups?

[Val89]

Okay. No objections from me to day ending here.

[Val89]

i really dont think the push for an explciit claim from me comes from town

By Jove, they've cracked it! The scumsolve is Me, IV, KT, Toto and Ydrasse; we were all just too smooth brained to see it!

Look, I know the idea here is that you catch more flies with honey than vinegar, but that approach only works if you are dealing with someone talking to you in good faith, and you are letting gera bloat the thread with obvious, surface-level rubbish here.

[Val89]

Toto is alive and geraint obviously flipped tonw

I'm another one questioning my read on IV. I'm still fine with that flip, and I have no problem with IV deciding to policy that, but the continued characterisation of that being an "obviously town" flip has me wondering. It was not obvious to me, at all, and that means either IV has a much, much better grasp of mafia that I do, or it's much more obvious when you have a pre-knowledge of gera's alignment, and that's bleeding in to these sort of posts.

It's not something that tanks the whole read for me, since Dunning–Kruger is a thing and it might be the case IV is just better at mafia...but I don't think I'm that bad at mafia, either.

[Val89]

It... might be skitter maybe? The defense was a bit clumsy on a re-skim of the relevant posts. But the question is if scum would hard defend a partner so early.

I thought about this since I was getting scumpings from both, but, as I said yesterday, I'm not convinced they make sense partnered. As well as the hard defence, there was also this:

VOTE: val89

19 looks like a scum post to me.

VOTE: val

If they are both scum, I've just voted skitters partner, and I have to believe that skitter jumps straight on my wagon right after there scumbuddy, on page 1. I know it doesn't become a wagon in the end, but I don't suppose either of skitter nor Sco would have known that at the time - and I suppose a hard defence of Sco might make more sense after doing that in a sort of 'in for a penny, in for a pound' sort of way - but I know when I've rolled scum, I've been much more reluctant to do any thing that might possibly tie me to a scum buddy early on when you know town are going to picking over every little interaction on the first page or two looking for a foothold.

I don't think they make sense as a solve together.

[Val89]

What is the scum motivation for me to cal geraintm obviously town then policy him

It might be NAI but I don’t see how you can think it’s scum indicative since there’s no motivation for me to do that

The scum motivation would be to appear town. When I roll scum, I know my gameplay is almost always to mimic my town game as closely as possible. Sometimes advancing the scum wincon means deviating from that, but that's always the starting point.

I don't doubt at all the genuineness of your conviction that Gera was town, and if you are scum, that town you would have also have known that - but I am theorising scum!you has overestimated how obvious it was to the other slots you are trying to sell the idea of town!IV to because the well was poisoned by your pre-knowledge of geras alignment.

[Val89]

In summary, scum will play to survival instincts and I think Herta is still just trying to get through phases. His contribution is lacking and his weird phrasing and timings bother me more than think he's just some independent townie out in space.

3) I think about my own 'Scol's silence is telling' thought and that seems potent. KT going back to Scol though? Do I really want to deal with an obstinate player twice over. Gera died being stubborn and Scol is going to be even more stubborn. This is not me saying I changed my mind on Scol but I just feel like maybe it's a bit of a waste.

These are both good points; good enough I can sheep you on Herta even if I'm sure how to read you myself. Like KT, I think Sco is probably most likely to flip scum, but I see your point particularly while I have pings of doubt particularly around if he was TMId by skitter early yesterday before the gera wagon diverted attention. Lets see how Sco acts today, and in the meantime, where this goes.

VOTE: Herta

[Val89]

what was obvious

That gera was town.

to who

To everyone who actually had to evaluate gera's play without pre-knowing they were town - ie: town.

why might I think that sells me as town to those people?

Like I said, because you are trying to replicate how you play as town; just as I do when I roll scum. Scum!you thinks "Gera is obviously town, and town!me would also be able to tell this is a town jester throwing the game, and the town players in this game will probably realise this is a reasonable read for town!me to have, so that's the fake read i'll give"; but I think in that scenario you have overestimated how obvious it is to those who didn't already have the pre-knowledge that gera wasn't scum.

It's a theory that could be wrong on several levels - maybe it just was that obvious, and I didn't realise it because I'm shit at mafia; or maybe I'm going to be told that actually, IV is one of those players with a distinct townmeta, and scummeta, and faking reads according to how you think town you would think and act isn't something you do.

I thought yesterday when you were saying it was obvious they were town that it was part of the softly-softly approach you seemed to taking with a gera of an unknown alignment in order to get him to play the game and maybe spew - I thought it a pointless endeavour, and one that might play into scum!gera's gameplan, but one I could see someone else deciding was worth a shot. To come out today and immediately repeat that the way that flip was going was obvious has me thinking I was wrong, and you actually thought it obvious yesterday as well, and to me it was certainly not obvious, so I'm trying to explain that disconnect.

[Val89]

scoli + skitter + unwnd?

As I said to KT in 1321; I'm not convinced a Sco/Skitter partnership makes sense. Are you seeing something I'm not?

I do think there is reason to think both of them pretty scummy independently, but a large part of why I dislike skitter is predicated on a town!Sco.

What's the issue with unwnd here, also? I've felt largely null on them yesterday, but that's improved today on the fact there are two posts today I've seen that I felt a bit mindmeld-y around.

[Val89]

That wagon hit E-1 pretty fast.

@Pooky; can I get an answer to 1411 before we lock in the lim?

Pooky is theorising a sco-skitter team; Sco is theorising a pooky-skitter team, and I'm not sure what to make of it.

[Val89]

What is the scum agenda behind Val scumreading me? He doesnt genuinely think hes going to start a real wagon on me so why does he feel the need to reach to sus me?

For the record, I'm not

scumreading

IV. I'm townreading them a little less than I was by EoD yesterday, but it's still a townread. I saw something that didn't quite make sense (the strength of conviction of a town!gera, which today was indicated as a real thought and not the overstated olive-branch to lure gera into spewing I mistook it as yesterday and thus ++town at that point) and I wanted it out there in case I'm not around to talk about it later if this game goes somewhere where the existence of possible well entrenched and hidden scum!IV actually matters to the game outcome, but I've acknowledged that scum!IV is only one of the possibilities that accounts for that ping.

Speaking of, if the alternative is true and there was good reason for a more experienced but un-informed player to see town!gera was obvious there, am I to take it that whatever signs you saw in gera aren't also applying to Sco here; ie: that it was nothing to do with the obstinate refusal to play?

[Val89]

she just doesnt seem into this game. like her read of scoli feels really not very fleshed out at all. its kind of this weird hand wavey thing?

Yeah, I agree. The first part could well be accounted for IRL issues, but the second part of that is what's had me wondering from the start - Sco has been scummy enough to end up being a leading wagon, with that wagon comprising at least a portion of slots she says she is townreading, but to her (and seemingly only her) Sco is obviously town but that read seems to have come from his opening post, that it was 'trying to move the game out of rvs', and when I've pointed out the issues I have with the post being internally inconsistent I've been told I'm 'expecting too much of a early post'.

I've considered it possible evidence of TMI wrt to a town!Sco playing in a way I just can't understand, rather than a partner-defence, particularly with how willing skitter was to tie themselves together page 1, but I guess I am warming up to the idea they could be partnered here.

if you vote for him it looks like the world's most awkward read flip and the first place we look for a bus vote

if you don't vote for him maybe we get bored by the wagon and go somewhere else

worse comes to worse and we actually yeet the guy you can claim tomorrow that you would've bussed him or not defended him if he was going over and try to sell us another brochure on why Herta is mafia.

This makes a lot of sense.

[Val89]

its weird to me that unwnd was voting for scoli at EOD1 which basically had scoli + gera as the two options and he goes on to start today pushing for herta; it doesnt really make sense to me as scoli didnt get any townier and its unexplained. also i dont really understand his herta case or what herta did between d1/d2 to become more attractive of a lim option to unwnd.

I mean, there is this, which I thought was a good point and the reason I decided not to hop straight on to Sco's wagon today. It's also proven fairly accurate to how today has gone:

Do I really want to deal with an obstinate player twice over. Gera died being stubborn and Scol is going to be even more stubborn. This is not me saying I changed my mind on Scol but I just feel like maybe it's a bit of a waste.

I'm feeling a little uncomfortable on the Herta wagon with only skitter at this point. Unwnd does also seem to have gotten to the other reason I was hoping we might get a Herta wagon rolling today - skitters ISO is a focused on two things: Sco is town, but Herta is not. I was hoping if we can get Herta to actual play as well, and get a better read there, that might tell us something about skitter. I think making that connection independently is a point in favour of town!unwnd, but doesn't look like that wagon is actually going to happen, though.

I'm going to leave my vote where it is for the moment because I think I am going to end up just hammering Sco at this rate and see where we are tomorrow.

[Val89]

Yeah, agreed.

VOTE: Scoliosis

E-1

[Val89]

Why are we expecting a replacement?

Are people just making the assumption Sco won't respond to the prod?

[Val89]

when I've pointed out the issues I have with the post being internally inconsistent I've been told

I'm 'expecting too much of a early post'.

i also don't believe i said the bolded, i just think you read it wrong

OK, then how should I have been reading it?

I think you're expecting too much out of a post20 post, and i think it's quite reasonable (and good) for ehat we had at the time

Like you're attributing a scummy motivation to something that i think boils down to - he missed the ic post, and found 17/19 more noteworthy to comment on than 7/13
Like you're expectations for what he *should* have been doing at that post are unreasonable imo

[Val89]

Looking at skitters ISO for that quote has reminded me that at one point, she wanted to wagon KT for changing his read on Sco.

Like ig i'm kinda confused how kittytacky can start off liking 20 and then move to disliking it when other people find it scummy without scoliosis posting anything in between

This was all pre-Pooky rep-in.

My point being if you are going to use the origination of the Sco wagon as a vehicle to read Pooky, it would be worth re-reading those early pages, because I don't think either narrative, that KT nor Pooky really got the ball rolling there tells the whole story.

I need to go check if there were indeed "other people" plural who found 20 scummy, or if skitter was just overstating it for the sake of trying to get something moving on KT since I remember feeling like a lone voice but if there were multiple people expressing reservations about Sco prior to KT starting to push there, I don't understand either point of view.

[Val89]

then i misremembered what i said

Well, did you

mean

to say something different?

I'm just struggling to understand why you went to the trouble to quote and bold that part of the post as if it was something you ought to push back against?

Is that not an opinion you want to be associated with now that Sco is close to going over? My recollection is that 20 being a

good post(tm)

was the genesis of your TR on Sco, and you dismissed my criticism of it as being misguided. That previous post I quoted seems to imply you wanted to wagon KT because they were swayed by my critisim of it as well. 'Val was expecting too much of an early Sco post' seems like an opinion you would remember having in that context.

[Val89]

i don't think it's contradictory at all to think that kitty's push and pooky's push at different stages of the game had different weights and impacts

Is anyone suggesting it is?

[Val89]

i think he could be scum here tho

Just to clarify, he being "pooky"?

[Val89]

the implication in 1734 is p clearly that you think i shouldn't be thinking that pooky was the catalyst of the scol wagon, is it not?

No, it wasn't you I was thinking about. It was your post about wanting to wagon KT for having changing his read in response to "other people" that reminded me that this:

I originated the push, not Pooky

Could well be off-base as well. If there

was

multiple people pushing Sco before KT changed their TR on them, then I don't think KTs argument as to why Pooky is town holds any water either. I have felt town vibes from Pooky, but that doesn't seem like a good reason to be doing so.

I've haven't had a chance to look properly if your reference to multiple people is accurate or exaggeration (in my quick scam I saw a post or two from IV that might have indicated they werent buying it either, but I want to sit down and look properly) but if it is, then I have issue with KTs charactisation in 1719.

To be clear, I don't think neither KT nor Pooky are scum, but I also dont think letting TRs based on poor logic or misrecollections go without challenge is in the interest of town when the day could end, and my ability to point out those flaws end with it, at any moment.

Pedit: it's not a critism. I remember feeling like a lone voice in disliking 20, and the responses I remember having were "Vals probably town for having those thoughts, but they aren't good thoughts" and I count you as one of the slots I remember hearing that from, and if I was the only one, and KTs read on Sco was because of something else, then I can understand why KT thinks they way they do and there is a good reason to be thinking Pooky town I might agree with, but if my recollection is wrong and your post is true in that there was multiple slots (that's what "people" means, right?) — and it might be, because it wasn't challenged at the time - then it's a bad reason to be TRing pooky on KTs part.

[Val89]

i felt like 1651 was dumbing down my argument into something less nuanced than what i was trying to say at the time, which made me bristle a bit because i don't think that's something i would have tried to argue or say in that way

I really don't understand. What naunce or context do you thing is being lost by summing up:

I think you're expecting too much out of a post20 post, and i think it's quite reasonable (and good) for ehat we had at the time

Like you're attributing a scummy motivation to something that i think boils down to - he missed the ic post, and found 17/19 more noteworthy to comment on than 7/13
Like you're expectations for what he *should* have been doing at that post are unreasonable imo

as I'm 'expecting too much of a early post'.

what i meant 292 more in the sense of:
your expectations for his reasoning on the difference between posts are unreasonably high given the stage of the game, i don't think that he needs to have an explanation for why he commented on one prior post and not the other, and i don't think it's scummy if he doesn't have such an explanation. in post 20 he can choose to have found one or two prior RVS posts notable but not all of them, and that doesn't imply that he's internally inconsistent or making up things

I can't see any difference at all??

[Val89]

VOTE: skitter30

[Val89]

I ... don't know what i was thinking, i read all of those posts but for some reason thought 41 42 happened right after 20 and before 24

I think i had iso'd both and somehow conflated post numbers, but that's my bad

I feel better abt kitty then

And i had a brainfart wrt whether or not they had seen/responded to kitty's question (i thought kitty's question was later for some reason), that's different than 'not even paying attention' or 'acting on bad faith', and doesn't have much to do with the basis of my scoliosis read at all (should it affect my kitty read? sure, and i addressed that already)

Derp number one.

I don't think your answer makes sense - I've tried reading the posts in the order you say you mistook them for, and I still can't get there.

Like ig i'm kinda confused how kittytacky can start off liking 20 and then move to disliking it when other people find it scummy without scoliosis posting anything in between

There was no "other people". I've had a chance to re-read all of the first 6 pages up to 126, and nobody else but me had an issue with Sco. You were either, as I expected when I spotted it, exaggerating to try and get something going on KT, or else, derp number 2.

Either way, you had no business trying to start a wagon on KT.

[Val89]

Fwiw i'm reading them as experienced in mafia but new to ms and is used to a different site meta (and/or possibly an irl player new to forum mafia)

Derp number 3. No re-evaluation in light of that assumption being proven incorrect.

Wait really
...

If true this actually changes my read quite a bit

There should have been, though, apparently.

[Val89]

then i misremembered what i said

Derp number 4.

everything after teh first comma

No, wait! It's not a derp; Val is trying to deliberately misrep her position.

[Val89]

the way I read you is mostly looking at your posts - comparing to thread and seeing if you're keeping up and generally how much you want to be here. if you feel like you want to be here/engage I slot you as town. You have issues keeping up with the thread this starts looking worse.

For me - fair enuf, that is probably a good way to read me

Cool. I'll take your word for it.

It looks to me like you are phoning this game in, and apparently that's your scum meta.

[Val89]

Did you read any of this game prior, MathBlade?

[Val89]

Seems like there is merit to that.

VOTE: Sco

We aren't pushing Sco because they are lurking, or at least, some of us aren't. Try again.

[Val89]

I have to say, Pookies Sco + Skitter + Unwnd solve is starting to look quite appealing.

I think I would be desperate to kill pooky in that situation as well.

[Val89]

I will convert you.

Maybe, but not like this.

[Val89]

Yeah. Super Silly.

Like every role on the normal list silly, and I don't see a town motivation for it. I pause because I also think if he is scum, his partners would have clued him to the other thing Toto mentioned and told him to knock it off before he runs out enough rope to hang them lot of them with. It's enough to make me want to shoot myself.

[Val89]

Well, I can only advise you make "eventually" sooner rather than later; who knows how long any of us have left?

I also think that Herta needs to take a stance on where they want to be re: Sco and Pooky.

I wanted to wagon Herta earlier with your predecessor because I don't really have a good read there, and I thought I might have some shot of getting a read if we could force them to play, and that would also help me get a handle on Skitter. (Herta and Skitter look pretty unaligned where I'm standing). It unfortunately didn't happen, but Ydrasse has convinced me that skitter can wait a phase.

pedit: OK, that'll do it.

[Val89]

My previous was also a reply to Maths' 1853, in case it wasn't clear with that burst of activity in the meantime.

[Val89]

Any time you want to move on from Silly Sausage mode and get serious, Math, I'm ready.

I don't think it's Pooky. I think Sco is in a strange spot where they are either very scum (and I think they are more likely scum here) or very town and have been TMId as such; but they have done enough damage to their own credibility that seeing that flip today is a reasonable, possible outcome. Certainly I would like to know what we are dealing with before we go too much further in this game, and I don't know if there is much of anything any potential replacement could do to dig themselves out of that spot that I wouldn't want to resolve that before it's too late.

I'm going to hang fire on skitter for now, although I think she is the slot that TMId Sco town, if that's what happened, and I find myself agreeing with Pooky that they have potential partner equity. I saw something that pinged me a little about IV, but I'm still town reading them and don't intend to do anything about it.

[Val89]

I think pooky is more likely scum than scoliosis at this point. Pooky's back and forth between scoliosis and gerantim was not good because I don't think pooky would kill bc of policy over an actual scum read. It seems convenient? Scoliosis is less scummy today but I do think their flip would be informative. And pooky's would too. I just think pooky's scummier than scoliosis.

OK, thank you. Which "actual scum read" of Pookies did you have in mind?

[Val89]

Noted.

Firebringer (previously Dann) is also in that danger zone for me where I don't know what to make of them. Freedom has also just kinda existed in the background, but for some reason I can't articulate, I end up leaning town on the little we do see from that slot.

Call it something like this:

Val, Toto

Pooky, KT, IV

Freedom

---

Firebringer, Math*, Herta

<- null, cant really get a handle and it worries me, danger zone.
---

Ydrasse

Sco, Skitter

I was a bit put off by some of Ydra's posting yesterday, but you would have be blind not to see the massive chunks of bread she has been laying out since. I'll give that one a pass, with the understanding she will resolve herself. The position on my reads list is where I think they belong sans that consideration.

*I think this slot was being a little TOO memorable for comfort, particularly as Ydrasse is also getting a pass, but I'm inclined to see how things develop for now; given the previous occupant of that slot would have been one line above if I had posted this a few hours ago.

[Val89]

Interesting its gone so quiet all of a sudden....

[Val89]

Did you ever finish that read through, firebringer?

[Val89]

For the record, I also do not accept the premise that there are 3 conf town here.

Maybe I might have if math had been more selective in the manner in which they made themselves memorable, but the net was cast far too wide for my comfort.

I need to look at some previous Math games.

[Val89]

Well, I am afraid I don't, and repeating yourself if the same manner you have been won't make me do so.

I accept there is probably (almost certainly?) 2, but 3 is where I am having difficulty.

Like, If I was to say to you my favourite hobby was to complete cryptic crosswords on my Commodore A600 whilst also studying a foundation degrees in both criminology and neuroscience; all while stroking my cat Waffles, you would say to me "But Val, a vintage machine of that era is possibility capable of allowing you do all that!"; and I wouldn't blame you if you unloaded your fury upon me for telling such blatant porkies, right?

[Val89]

Like, If I was to say to you my favourite hobby was to complete cryptic crosswords on my Commodore A600 whilst also studying a foundation degrees in both criminology and neuroscience; all while stroking my cat Waffles, you would say to me "But Val, a vintage machine of that era is possibility capable of allowing you do all that!"; and I wouldn't blame you if you unloaded your fury upon me for telling such blatant porkies, right?

The reason why you would be furious is because maybe, just maybe, you would have believed my story if I hadn't been stuffing it with superfluous details; like the bit about the pet on my lap.

Speaking of cats, what did you think about Ydrasse's entrance coming into today?

[Val89]

Even confused people can get angry, particularly if they think the person who has them confused is doing it on purpose.

[Val89]

I know what you are trying to sell me here and now. Loud and clear. I'm just not sure if I can believe it on account of all the

other

stuff you were also trying to sell.

I'll ask again, do you have anything to say about Ydrasse?

[Val89]

it will be proven true.

Well, that needs to happen sooner rather than later. My mom told me never to go to bed angry,

[Val89]

UNVOTE:

[Val89]

Maybe I might have if math had been more selective in the manner in which they made themselves memorable, but the net was cast far too wide for my comfort.

What I am not getting is why, as well as all the doc crumbs, you also heavily crumbed friendly neighbour; alongside crumbs that could be taken as investigative. I thought I was getting my concerns though to you, and the reason I was doing so in code was because I wasn't sure how an FN claim, without the collusion of IV, could possibly help scum - and the game still didn't look so perilous for scum as to require such a ballsy play - but I still don't understand what the town motivation is to crumb the other roles (and possibly others I didn't pick up) and leave the door open for doubt when you out; or die, and leave it ambiguous.

There's also the matter of your predecessor slot, and how they approached IV at the start of today.

[Val89]

Call me Mr. Goofy.

Guess that makes IV Pete then eh friend?

Remind me, who is Pete to Goofy?

Ydrasse’s

knocking at the door

and so is Val

Me and IV are so friendly

Pretend the moderator PMed you

with an ironclad “MathBlade is unequivocally and without exception town”.

I don't know, if not for the fact I don't see what scum!you gets out of it if IV doesn't play along, I would say that's more than I can write off as "oh well"

[Val89]

I do also happen to think Ydrasse has been dropping heavy hints she knows why there was no kill. It's why I asked your opinion on her since you didn't appear to be accounting for it.

The reaction from her is

odd

, I'll grant you that.

[Val89]

VOTE: skitter30

[Val89]

And if you look at the specific post from enchant he says there's a pattern of adding nothing to the conversation by kitty and that kitty is giving the impression that he's doing something. For someone who hasn't read the game or at least kitty's iso, that's a fairly disingenuous thing to say. It's a bald accusation with really no basis in fact.

When I think of KT, I actually do think of someone who has had a single, intense focus on one thing - namely getting the Sco/Enchant slot flipped. I don't think it's true to say it has "no basis in fact", although I agree it is a scummy post in that I don't see how enchant supposed to know that if they haven't read the ISO.

I think pooky is more likely scum than scoliosis at this point.

Still?

I don't think I've made any secret of the fact I am of the opposite opinion. I also can't think of a flip that I think could hit scum where there result would help me move towards a townread. I was initially of the opinion that skitter trying to start a wagon on KT for having dared not accept Sco as obvtown for try-harding out of the gate as evidence of TMI, but I found Pookies case that the immovable nature of that overblown townread could well point to a scum partnership to be persuasive; and I think I would still want Enchant dead regardless of skitters flip. I also think having Enchant alive tomorrow would probably lead to another day of KT trying to wagon the same flip and the same people supposing/opposing/indifferent, and not really get much forward.

TLDR: I'm inclined to hammer here. I am aware Sco has already claimed VT, so consider this intent for the purposes of sharing anything else anyone wants to get of their chest before day end.

[Val89]

I'm ready to hammer Enchant, skitter. Anything to say before that happens?

[Val89]

VOTE: Enchant

Hammer is yours if you want it, Toto.

[Val89]

I think I need to go back an re-evaluate Pooky and work how much of townread there was tainted by the fact I thought Sco was likely flipping scum, but it feels much to early to put anyone into hammer range regardless.

It does feel as if something

iffy

is afoot with regards to the power roles in this game: I know the game was advertised as being complex, but I can't remember if I've ever seen a game where an IC was also informed - it smells as if the information not only needed to come out, but it had to be 100% trusted when it did - as if the whole balance of the setup requires us to know about the existence of ninjas.

On top of that, if claims and actions claimed so far are legit, then it doesn't appear that scum have even bothered taking a shot at Toto yet. Reading back overnight, nothing stood out about IVs D1 reads or play for me to even hazard a guess at why they might have been selected as the target, if that's what happened, even if scum were concerned about Toto being protected. Not a lot to be done about it now, but I wish unwnd was still around to explain that target choice, and why they treated IV the way the did at the start of D1 if they had just saved them.

I am willing to extend Ydrasse benefit-of-the-doubt for a while longer, but that's not going to last forever. If I do so, then accounting for FBs/MBs info, there doesn't seem a lot of realistic scumteams left; I would be surprised if whiteknighting Sco and trying to bus a buddy was the sum total of skitters scumplay, as checked out and absent as that slot has felt for me, so I don't think Skitter-Herta is a thing; and there aren't many (or any, really) teams left that don't include skitter.

VOTE: skitter30

[Val89]

Can you elaborate?

Well, I know I am town; you are town; if we assume IV is clear; as well as Math and FB; and I don't think it'll come as a shock to anyone if I point out that Ydrasse has been promising for literal days we don't need to pay attention to her because she will clear herself (presumably by claim also), then who is left?

Herta-Skitter don't seem to be a thing to me, but then what Herta teams make sense? If I exclude both, that gives me Pooky-KT-Freedom - and if

that's

the team then we are fucked, because I'm never getting there.

Given I think there is something iffy afoot, perhaps one of the assumptions I am making, but it feels like a good starting to apply Occam's razor and that to me points to skitter, who I think has been scummy anyway.

[Val89]

VOTE: Val gut lol idk

Not me chief. Don't know what to tell you - I thought Pooky was town D2 and didn't get a chance to re-evaluate.

[Val89]

I haven't really had a chance to think about what Pooky!scum means either, frankly, and I'm unlikely to be able to play much tonight/tomorrow. Sorry.

I would want to find time to actually go back and read, but I still think there is one scum, and one only, between Herta-Skitter; and I think it's more likely skitter: as (I think) I said yesterday, Herta smells like scummy town to me, and with skitter being so on point picking out scummy town Gera, and scummy town Sco? Smells like the designated mislim to me.

[Val89]

Also VT.

[Val89]

I think Ydrasse was over-blowing it somewhat to call herself 'self-resolving', particularly if one shot, but I do also think she is just town here.

Given the claims on the table, unless someone has some insight I'm missing, I see no reason it was so important for us to know of the existence of mafia ninjas as to need an informed IC if her claim isn't legit - nothing else interacts, as far as I can see.

I don't think I am so sure it's a legit inno on Skitter, however. I don't have much, if any, experience with normal balance considerations, but for the scum team to be only ninjas seems too town-sided to be legit even for my inexperienced sensibilities. Clearly they have some power, and ascetic, and therefore functioning as a false inno seems like a legit but 'complex' way to bring things back in balance.

[Val89]

Why is Val aligned with me?

This looks like a townie question to me. MathBlade had been pretty open prior to asking about preferring my lim first, so I think scum!freedom just shuts up, let that happen and take in the towncred when I flip green. Pushing for justification looks anti-scum.

[Val89]

Someone double check my understanding of how "macho" works, but that means that a Jailkeep would not act as a protective if they locked up Toto, correct?

[Val89]

Well, at least that means there is a valid reason to make FB informed if town as well, in a "don't bother wasting your ability on the IC" way.

[Val89]

I just can’t find his partner in that world. I suppose you + FB is possible.

I think I am going to have to ask you to justify your scumread on me at this point.

I could sort of see why I might be wrongly suspected today in the sense that I was townreading, and thus avoiding the wagon on the only flipped scum, and I was involved in both town mislims, but I don't understand why you think I'm the only possible partner for a scum!fb.

[Val89]

I'm not sure how that answers the question.

[Val89]

I'm not convinced the existence of kitty alone justifies Totos role in the world Ydrasse is scum. There are plenty of VTs knocking about, and any one of us could have been given the informed modifier - it makes sense to me to give it to you if there is the possibility of false innos, in that making the source of that info beyond reproach at least gives us a reasonable, fair chance of figuring out it is a false inno before it turns into a free scum win.

[Val89]

Town!Ydra hitting an ascetic. I don't think you needed to the one informed of the ninjas in a scum!Ydrasse world - I think the fact you are macho indicates the intent was that your power was in delivering that info and having it 100 percent reliable, but scum are still supposed to be able to kill you so.

Why that hasn't happened in another story, but I think that's what your role is for. Informed IC is too powerful with a guaranteed clear with a protective, Macho IC + someone else getting the info makes you meh, and risks the info being disbelieved. Town informed macho IC hits the sweet spot, provided its a town!Ydrasse, else outside of an elaborate trolly red-herring, what's the point?

[Val89]

Everyone has claimed now, right?

If Ydrasse isn't town, why was it so important to reveal the existence of scum ninjas to town prior to finding out the usual way when scum start flipping? What other town power do we have that interacts with that?

[Val89]

If we assume Skitter scum it’s with Ydrasse exactly

Why?

[Val89]

Nevermind, I figured it.

On reflection, I think I was barking up the wrong tree yesterday with respect to the importance of town knowing about the importance of ninjas pointing to a town!ydra - ninjas interact with Kitty's watcher role, not Ydra's.

[Val89]

I don't think scum!FB works in any scenario.

From what I gather, unless there was a deliberate choice to No kill on any particular night; scum shot at IV N1; they shot at either Math or IV again on N2; and they shot at Skitter or FB (and thus FB is town) N3.

Even if FB is lying, all that means is scum didn't shoot MB N2, and skitter wasn't shot at N3, and what team ever shoots at skitter there, so that is extremely likely to be a No Kill choice. I'm also struggling to understand what team doesn't take a shot at MB on N3, unless they were trying to maneuverer around the possibly FB jails MB for protection again, which implies town!FB. It's also clear that, either by No Kill choice or alternative selection, they don't give a hoot about leaving Toto alive.

Looking again at the order the info came out, FB announces the JK on skitter

after

Ydra claims an inno. Why doesn't scum!FB claim to JK someone else at that point?

[Val89]

I can understand that pool, and why we would want to do Ydra before skitter, as scummy as I think that slot is absent considerations about the checker.

Looking at Pookies ISO, there is a marked difference between how Herta was treated compared to myself and freedom.

Someone who is more familiar with how Pooky might treat a buddy can tell me if this is the wrong approach, but I am inclined to start with the slot that earnt a different treatment to my own.

VOTE: Herta

I also think a scum!Herta flip would remove any residual paranoia with respect to skitter since I've not felt theatre vibes between the two, and I don't think pooky complains in thread about the two voting him together while scumreading him if they are a team.

[Val89]

I don't see how no lim gets us anywhere. We aren't getting a clear inno nor guilty with the PRs we have, particularly where the possibility of a deliberate no kill is a consideration, and will have to be going forward, and I don't really think there is a real possibly of a scum kill narrowing the PoE any following the mass claim.

As for Firebringers 'breakdown'? Just no. We've already had this once this game, and that was more than enough for me. I've rewritten what I wanted to say here several times, but have decided I am just going to say nothing further until the game is over than to make one direct appeal here, and hope you realise yourself why.

[Val89]

Firebringer, who do you think is scum on day play?

[Val89]

Thank you. I appreciate it.

I don't disagree with your analysis on skitter; but the idea that an ascetic skitter gets sent to do the kills seems to have merit to me. I find myself agreeing that skitter ought to be off the table until we know the deal with Ydra. Limming in the non-skitter VTs and reducing the PoE is probably the best way forward here - I just don't see what we get out of a no-lim.

Merry Christmas all.

[Val89]

So maybe like just trying to make the unwnd slot confed
And i can see unwnd going along with it

No, unwnd wasn't in the game N1; and as far as I can see, unwnd never crumbed either.

Ydra did say this early D2 prior to unwnd rep-in:

it’s not against the rules but scum does in fact benefit in knowing about protectives

stares at you until you understand

I bet you’re scum and already know the answer, that’s why you’re saying this :3

stares at you until You Understand

Combined with all the business about her being self resolving (and now that I look again at Ydras repeated promises to be "prove town" on D2, it's well over the top for a disloyal checker claim) I am starting to wonder if Ydra was planning on claiming the protective? Is it possible it's Pooky + unwnd/MB + Ydra, with the no kill gambit originally planned for Ydra to take advantage of, but MB decided to take over?

After all, I've never been able to figure out why, if town!unwnd was sure IV was town enough to select them for the doc save over Toto, and then there had been no kill, why this is what unwnd had to say about IV immediately following:

IV at the end wasn't really splitting hairs but 'only doing this for policy reasons' felt a bit stilted. Felt more like something he feel like he could justify which makes me question my read on him a bit

I'm a tad more paranoid about you IV but I feel like it's something I don't wanna get into until I have to

Granted, this requires Ydra to decide there is enough benefit in clearing skitter, who was otherwise a potentially viable mislim for today, but maybe having the deepwolf in MB is enough.

[Val89]

Correct.

[Val89]

Granted I've had a very Merry Christmas, and I may feel different with a hangover, but it's seems about as plausible as unwnd, having decided to IV was townie enough to deserve protection, and having gotten a save from his pov, suddenly deciding the only read he felt different on from D1 was that IV wasn't as townie after all.

Also add in the fact that MB wasn't

only

softing doc, and the softs that Ydra was putting out prior to that point were pointing to protective enough for me to think she was about to claim doc:

I do also happen to think Ydrasse has been dropping heavy hints she knows why there was no kill. It's why I asked your opinion on her since you didn't appear to be accounting for it...

The reaction from her is odd, I'll grant you that.

...and it's something I think worth looking at.

In before someone is all "look, scum!val is trying to open the PoE", but fuck it, Mathblade has been trying to railroad this town since rep-in, and something isn't right here.

[Val89]

So scum-math reps in
Claims doc which his pred wasnt and his partner was angling towards
Clears a townie
And gets into a massive fight with his partner
And flips him
?

Yes.

And rides the "conftown" to scum victory, gg. Tea, biscuits, probably a scum nommie.

Heck, you could do that and say stuff like "We always lim Ydra before skitter" knowing there is a double dose of towncred on the way if we go for it, and if not, push for the lim of the real protective while saying "I could hammer a VT I scumread" (Ie: everyone else) and nobody would bat an eye, right?

I agree it's a bit out-there, but I've made out-there plays: Pooky-Ydra have made out-there plays in the past. Your turn: Why do you think unwnd though the conftown he just saved was the only read he was questioning?

[Val89]

I mean, despite Ydra's sudden panic that I am gunning for her lim; you will note that, actually, I am not and my vote remains where it is.

Correct me if I am wrong, but even if scum do wake up now and start killing, we can assume a basic level of competence in that they won't be shooting at the VTs (and if they do, that only helps us), then we still have time to yeet the 3 of us before Mylo, no?

I still think the play is to remove that PoE pool; but I wanted my suspicions regarding Mathblade/Ydra, and how that team makes sense with respect to Ydras pre-mb-rep crumbs and unwnds play, in case all 3 of {me, freedom, herta} are misses. After all town!MB

shouldn't

be making it to end game, but if he is around, as long as whomever is left resolves to think on it carefully, I'm happy.

[Val89]

I always fuck up the mylo calculation, but doesn't it depend on if either (or both) of FB or MB are town and alive? From memory, the scum wincon is "when all threats are eliminated or nothing can stop that happening"? An alive RBer or Doc could stop the elimination of threats, or am I misunderstanding how this works?

[Val89]

OK, so say in the worst-case scenario we hit 2 town!VTs in a row, and the scum manage to get two kills on consensus town and we end up on D6 as:

Remaining VT + FB + MB + Skitter + Ydra + {IV or KT}.

Are we in Mylo or not?

[Val89]

I don't care. I think you are wrong, and 4 town v 2 scum is not Mylo; and it which case, the play is to lim the 3 of us - me, Herta, freedom; and I don't care what order. If people are right about there being at least one scum in the VTs, you get who it is and you can go looking for associative. If not, there isn't much space for 2 scum to hide amongst those slots left, when town!Ydra confirms town!Skitter.

Also, does anyone think we have no protectives and all, and scum!FB with scum!MB can ever be a thing? No? Good. That's another clearing associative you can bank on then.

You are welcome to start with me if you think I'm nitpicking.

[Val89]

Then lim me.

I'm literally saying "you can afford to kill the 3 VTs", of which I am one.

If you think I am wrong, and there isn't scum in the VTs, why the fuck am I 'fabricating' anything? What exactly is your problem, here?

[Val89]

There could be only one scum, aka you, and trading yourself for 2 Ml is good for your team. Even if we lim you first we can still yeet herta and freedom.

If I am the scum, and you lim me first, you've brought yourself a few extra mislims, no?

You could also be making this shit up so I correct you out of your own elim.

What shit am I making up, exactly?

Finally, if you are town, we can’t afford to mlim all three of you when scum team could easily be skitter + claimed pr.

Skitter + Ydra; unless a) you are telling me that town!Ydra is lying, or b) Skitter is ascetic, in which case, why wasn't she sent to do the kills? I can see a scumteam with pooky on it choosing to no kill deliberate one, maybe two nights as a gambit, but not all 3.

I can see why you are still alive.

[Val89]

Like, what realistic teams do you think my plan actually loses to?

[Val89]

And scum!Fb didn't shoot you last night, because?

[Val89]

I likewise don't see how Town!MB implies scum!FB.

ELI5?

[Val89]

Let's hear it then.

[Val89]

Well, here is the thing, Mathblade.

Unless something "spicy" happens between now and then, if we are both around in an Final ELO; I'm voting you.

Make of that what you will.

[Val89]

Remind me why you are so convinced Math is town, again?

[Val89]

My notes have scum!MB taking a shot N2 as an explanation for the No Kill that night, as well.

Thing is, he

was

softing multiple claims, and the softs Ydra was putting out don't match the claim at all - I had to ask MB if they had considered Ydra's softs precisely because I was 90 percent sure Ydra was about to claim protective.

I think Ydra+Math does explain the glaring issues to which I've not yet seen a satisfactory alternative answer - namely, unwnds treatment of IV on D2, Ydra's softs not matching the claim, the choice to No kill N1 if that happened, and MB throwing multiple softs around on entrance. Thinking about it, I don't think the clear on Skitter is too much of an issue because a) she wasn't universally scumread, and the other town that scum team cleared for cred - IV - was TRing her, ircc b) with a one-shot claim, Ydra has to justify her target choice, and Skitter is at least a reasonable one that doesn't raise too many questions and c) if Ydra flips, sus is going to fall straight back on to that slot.

I think Pookies ISO also supports that team, and particularly Pooky+Ydra have form for that sort of gambit, as demonstrated by IV.

The problems with it are working out what about the game state meant the scum team decided to switch who used the fakeclaim the N1 no kill was supposed to set up, at risk of leaving Ydra exposed to someone noticing the claim didn't fit the crumbs, and secondly, that TPR is entirely macho IC, limited JK, ascetic watcher, and we do have 6 VTs.

If that seems unrealistic and one or both are legit town power, then we are back to there being scum in the VTs, and my position of what should be done to figure that out is well known.

[Val89]

There is also the matter of Math not claiming to be a ninja doc until 2774 - after KT claims and someone suggests using KT is prove Math - full claiming and saying "actually, you can't do that" only at that point, when we know the mafia are ninjas, is just another scummy thing I've got to write off as a coincidence, and the list is growing.

[Val89]

Absolutely correct.

Not putting up. You'll have to make me shut up.

If it's not me today, I'll be reminding everyone else every day why I think you are scum; all while not voting you until ELO. Then I will. Because despite being an infinite ninja doc, you will be at endgame, won't you?

UNVOTE:

[Val89]

I bet you’re scum and already know the answer, that’s why you’re saying this :3

stares at you until You Understand

Sure, what were we supposed to "Understand"?

i have information that will lead to [shot down before i can finish]

What information did you have, or else why were you pretending you did?

[Val89]

freedom spent a game recently relying a lot on wolf team for assistance and them basically coaching his play a bit idk how that would impact this game

Is that a recent game for which the scum PT is public?

Might be helpful to see how scum!freedom thinks.

[Val89]

My mind hasn't changed - I still think we lim the 3 of us, starting with any, and if we miss, we lim in the VT pool again until the 3 of us are eliminated - and if then it's confirmed both scum are in the PR pool (or it's exactly Ydra and Skitter), then you kill Ydra.

We probably lose to a scum!KT, but I'm willing to risk that on account of how unlikely that seems. Math+Skitter with a funky modifier probably also wins, but it's another low probability team I don't think we can reasonably play around. Scum!IV isnt a thing, and if it is, they deserve the win.

[Val89]

VOTE: Herta

Not a lot in it, frankly. There

was

a marked difference in how pooky treated Herta D1 compared to myself and freedom, and while 2740 isn't much, but it's a small something.

[Val89]

I think Herta is slightly more likley to flip red than Herta, and doing so would clear what little paranoia I still have on Skitter.

I will go for freedom if you feel strongly. Ydra is the first place I would look in the PR claims, but it still feels like VT and look again after another nights worth of actions is the play today.

[Val89]

Flip red than freedom*

[Val89]

VOTE: freedom

[Val89]

Absolutely go ahead and lim me if you think I have 40 percent scum equity.

I know you think this is some sort of AtE, but I've been trying (and apparently failing) to appeal to cold logic here.

The non-skitter VT pool are absolutely not going to get resolved by night kill - the only way it happens is via lim. If you aren't sure one or any of us are town, sort it now before it's too late.

[Val89]

Toto, I Am lining up mislims.

I'm saying 'I don't care about the order', but really I care deeply about the order.

Don't start with me, make sure you do the other two first.

[Val89]

Yes, I am aware, but it is my belief, despite Totos insistence that we 'can't afford it', that out best chance of winning this game is to lim all 3 of us and hope the night actions (and maybe Totos info) helps sort the PR claims.

I would assume if it was something that was actually useful to sort today, we would know about it already, and the fact we haven't been told is that Toto judges its something that doesnt help sort directly, but might help catch scum in a lie.

Whatever it is, it isn't going to help sort anyone claiming VT, though.

[Val89]

Also can you just like do the math and show me how we don’t lose to skitter+ydra.

If that's the team, we have two legit town protectives. I'm saying it's risk free, I'm saying I think it's the best chance.

[Val89]

Chop chop. Tick tock.

[Val89]

Does the "ninja enabler" part apply to the whole role, or the ninja-ness?

In other words, is a theorical town Mathblade now a straight-up, eligible for kitty check, regular doctor; or functionally VT?

[Val89]

If that's true, and kitty was gambiting their asceticness, does that not mean we are now in a follow-the-cop situation, and could have been from N2?

I don't think MB can be legit (or else KT, but then why ninjas at all?)

[Val89]

VOTE: Val

Val reads like outed scum who dislikes the setup.

The more I think on it, the happier I am to make today a gladiate.


VOTE: Mathblade

[Val89]

This tells me that of the PRs it’s most likely fire because scum would be scared of me potentially doccing IV.

So why not shoot you?

[Val89]

If its me and FB, there is both Herta and Ydra as "escape hatches", and neither of those risk a town!doc getting a save if you aren't limmed for whatever reason.

Obvious bullshit is obvious.

[Val89]

Val can u address this bit plz

The bit where pooky was offering up Sco + yourself + Unwnd as the team, all while Unwnd was expressing doubts on the town IV he had just saved, then Math reps in, starts softing all kinds of PRs and then settles on a doc claim who saved IV and who knows Pooky is scum while suddenly pooky decides, actually this new rep is absolutely town, all while they are been pushed, and then goes into anti-spew mode and self-hammers the next day?

I'm not sure what you think the issue is, really. The point of a N1 no kill was to enable a fake doc claim to go deep, and busing what is essentially a goon who is catching heat from the legit town you've cleared for the towncred seems perfectly in keeping with that plan.

[Val89]

Like I said yesterday, I think Ydra was originally supposed to claim doc which supports her softs about self-resolving much more than one-shot disloyal checker does, and pooky was happy to rule-of-three Unwnd.

Once MathBlade arrives, he starts softing and they decide he is a better option for the deepwolf and better take Ydra's claim.

[Val89]

Like I said yesterday, I think Ydra was originally supposed to claim doc which supports her softs about self-resolving much more than one-shot disloyal checker does, and pooky was happy to rule-of-three Unwnd.

Once MathBlade arrives, he starts softing and they decide he is a better option for the deepwolf and better take Ydra's claim.

[Val89]

Like, how the hell else do you explain 2066? I'm being asked to write if off as a co-incidence, but there is just no way you don't realise those softs can point to FN. Maybe "knocking on the door" can invite some benefit-of-the-doubt, but "we are so friendly" "Pete and Goofy"?

I wonder if the original plan was to kill IV and claim he was a FN (perhaps one shot) who had sent a notification to IV, and point to all those crumbs and the fact that IV hadn't said anything as evidence IV had received the notification, and thus MB is conf town, but the insistence he explain why both of them were cleared forces the doc claim instead - notwithstanding of course that even THAT claim doesn't explain it - I'm willing-to-bet-the-game on it sure IV is in fact town, but he hasn't been proved that by MathBlade, even a town!MB.

I know hooky things happen in these games, but I'm being asked to believe one too many co-incidences for me to believe Math is town - unwnd not softing, ydra over softing, pooky offering unwnd up as part of a solve until the rep-in and then 180ing following the softs, unwnds treatment of IV being some sort of gambit, the multiple softs just accidentally pointing to multiple claims, and now, on top of all that - Totos role.

You think that is all co-incidence and I'm either bullshiting or just plain wrong, fine, go ahead and lim me. I think there is enough suspicion, perhaps justified, coming my way that I'm a decent final mislim-for-the-win for scum to hold in the back pocket. But if math is town, and kitty is telling the truth, that means you've got an already powerful town protective who suddenly got confirmable - ie, even stronger, after killing our IC.

I think it's already highly-suspicious he's here on D5. If you lim me, at least confirm he's some sort of PR, and expect me to be screaming from the dead thread if you let him cross the finish line with that claim after I'm revealed VT.

[Val89]

If you really believed you were right none of that would be necessary.

In what way?

[Val89]

Like, maybe you could still convince me those all were coincidences, but it's a pretty high bar to cross.

You can start by explaining how 'innocent villiager' has anything to do with 'friendly neighbour', and where you crumbed, amongst all the other noise, you were ninja, or else why you thought it was appropriate not to.

And then, unless you intend to "dude, I didn't realise", we've then got the handful (ie: more than one) of cop and vig crumbs to explain..

[Val89]

Is it possible I am mistaken town? Of course. But if you’re telling me that at least one scum of not two wanted Herta dead and still arguing Herta scum that’s imho ridiculous.

I'm sorry, I don't follow.

[Val89]

Okay, but what has that got to do with me being blustering scum?

I don't want a Herta wagon, I want a me or you wagon.

[Val89]

Math is right. Of course I'm scum.

All the above is just.. Unlucky coincidence, I guess. What a shit game for me.


VOTE: val89

[Val89]

Mathblade: Val is scum with FB. <Votes Val>
KT: I have a soft-guilty on FB, because he didn't do as I say last night when I could have confirmed him.

Also mathblade: oh, let's see what everyone else has to say. <unvotes Val>


You what?

[Val89]

I'm travelling today and my notes are at home. Can you remind me of your claimed night actions, FB?

[Val89]

Thanks

[Val89]

>We do not know for a matter of fact that all scum are ninja in this game.

Toto did say "All scum are ninjas". The mystery is if one town PR is also ninja. I say that is extremely unlikely, particularly as it wasn't outted at time of claim, until it was suggested MB be confirmed as a PR, and I take the "well, you are just scum" answer to my question as confirmation the ninja-ness wasn't crumbed.

I'm theorising that scum were informed that Toto was enabling their ninja-ing, which is probably why they survived until mass claim rather than the reads, and now all the claims are out there, have decided they no longer need to be ninjas.

Either way, I think its very unlikely we have a setup where scum get less powerful AND town get more powerful on killing the IC. One or the other, maybe, but both seems a bit out there for my tastes.

[Val89]

I also recall Skitter was also the only other player in this game expressing reservations on MathBlade D2.

It could be a fake guilty no kill, but it could also just be Skitter was the target.

[Val89]

I claim one shot ninja doctor with an inno on you.

OK, nevermind. I was looking at Maths ISO to see how he's been treating Herta prior to the whole "Herta can't be scum because VCA assuming I am town" business and spotted this.

I don't like the fact he spammed up with all the other crumbs as well, which makes it possible if scum to point to whichever matches whatever he wants to fit and handwave the others, as he is doing, but there IS something pointing to ninja prior to KTs claim.

[Val89]

It was definitely not a pre arranged plan of claiming doc imo.

Why? That's the world I'm considering. We know pooky has form for a N1 no kill in order to set up a fake claim.

It was with ydra, so I can see those two rolling scum with ydra and IV repping in thinking "lol, think of the memes if we just replicate that again and fuck with IV, Datisi will love it lol lamo rofl"

I was evaluating MB+Herta as the other possibility, yes. It seems his argument for town!Herta hinges on him being town as well, which I don't buy.

[Val89]

Pooky spent the majority of D1 hard-defending Herta.


Putting aside the fact it doesn't have to be exactly you and IV, it could just as well be you and Herta, if you are trying to suggest scum will never pass up the opportunity for a town mislim in return for towncred, well....

Are you suggesting that if I take a look, I won't fund any examples of scum!Math avoiding a town wagon?

[Val89]

Val I want to indulge your MathBlade scum tinfoil theory but I just cant' reconcile Math/unwnd dayplay with scum behavior

Maybe if I'm desperate

That's fine. I'm not even sure a MathBlade lim is the play today. I'm like 70 percent sure its MB+either Ydra or Herta, but a town!math can still be useful.

Put him on a leash, and make sure you survive.

In scum!math world, he continues to live and has to explain his own survival while either taking you off the table, or they kill you and have to sell the idea there is a strongman or roleblocker or whatnot, and explain the no kills.

If it's town!math, scum have to leave him alive, and thus you, or else resolve him for us. If scum DO in fact have a roleblocker or strongman or whatever, then I can only assume its limited or else we wouldnt have had 3 no kills, and they have to use it to kill you and we still have a doc play.

I think my own lim is the play today, still. MathBlade can sit there and excuse any and all (and there is a lot) of the little issues and niggles - and even if you think they are nitpicks the sheer volume is pretty telling - as "well, it's coming from Val, and Val is scum so whatever".

My lim removes that excuse, and also proves I am not informed there is in fact a scum roleblocker or whatever. Good luck to a scum!math trying to argue town!me accidentally hit the exact setup and accidently played into scum hands, and if so then scum have to play tonight exactly one way.

[Val89]

I admit that 80 percent of my townread on FB as of today is because I don't think Math and FB can be scum together, and between the two I think it's Math.

That said, I also think there are reasons FB is town independently. For example, there are bus jobs, and then there is whatever 532 is.

Someone else will have to tell me if that is in Pookies scumrange, but it looks far more likely to be an attempt at removing a town threat in Dann than it does an over-the-top elaborate buddycase - if it an attempt to lay false associations, the job could have been done with far less effort.

[Val89]

I think Val is just screwed because Skitter is inno unless Ydrasse/Skitter
Herta is inno based on last attempt to miselim Herta
So Val is the only “VT” left

Val has already claimed scum. You believe me, apparently, so why aren't you voting?

[Val89]

I think Val is just screwed because Skitter is inno unless Ydrasse/Skitter
Herta is inno based on last attempt to miselim Herta
So Val is the only “VT” left

Val has already claimed scum. You believe me, apparently, so why aren't you voting?

I'm not annoyed, I'm pointing out the inconcrugity between saying I'm both mechanically scum, and socially, and yet not moving towards my lim.

It is as if he wants to discredit me, but is hoping the lim actually ends up elsewhere. Wonder why that is?

[Val89]

I don't think it's irrational at all. If I was more than about 80% sure Herta was flipping scum, I would go there, but I'm not, and if he

is

town, who is getting flipped tomorrow when the game most likely rides on it?

Ydra, it's time to put your money where your mouth is. You think I'm scum, just vote me. I'm not moving.

[Val89]

You might still end up flipping Herta tomorrow, but I think with my green card on the table, and the "Well, Val is just scum" excuse off the table, and KT dead, which lets be honest, is the most likely outcome overnight, town has better chance of making the right play in ELO than if Herta flips green with me alive.

[Val89]

with convoluted logic

If you are going to keep saying these things, you are going to have to explain why, from your point of view, you think my logic falls down and we are in "irrational" territory, because it is perfectly rational to me. A town elim today might appear on the surface to be negative town, but not if it increases the towns chances of winning the game overall - which is the overall goal, not to be alive to see it.

If Herta is scum, fine, but if he isn't, and while I think he has some equity, I certainly wouldn't bet the game on it - and that's what I think I would be doing, because a Herta mislim straight into a Val one is exactly what is shaping up.

Look at this:

VOTE: Val

The more I think on it, the happier I am to make today a gladiate.

Fine by me.

Then you

[Val]

and Fire die and gg we win.

On day before ELO we always elim Ydrasse to confirm Skitter.

I hope the elim ends up on you

[Val]

and I am working towards it.

i vote herta or val

I feel it’s obviously not Herta but I think Herta is the only elim that’s viable today so it’s awkward.

not voting [3]: Ydrasse, innocentvillager, MathBlade

What's wrong with this picture?

[Val89]

2 things:

First, Mathblade says he is fine with today being a gladiate, and will result in a town win. Both his solves have me as scum. He has other people willing to vote me. He has voted for me to day - but then unvoted, and in doing so made Herta, someone he says is obviously not scum, the leading wagon. We know given the lines drawn today that at least one person, maybe more, is going have to compromise. He makes my own wagon less viable, and the Herta one more likely to end up the compromise, while complaining about that state of affairs.

Secondly:

By saying Herta is the only viable lim today, he implies Ydra is not viable. That's one that looks like it might be a viable compromise too, but not to math - despite math arguing - TODAY - that we always flip Ydra on the day before ELO. Isn't that today?

[Val89]

The reality is that people don’t really listen to dead townies like ever, maybe maybe if their night kill was super strange, but even then people like to push their own opinions. My point is your townflip doesn’t really provide much benefit to town as you think, we’re not just gonna kill your top scumread

Understood. It's not that I think you sheep me in death, it's that if Herta is a miss, I think I die - and the game is lost - tomorrow.

I think math!scum also knows that, and why his own actions are making my lim less likley, and the wagon he thinks is town more likely.

[Val89]

It's a balance of probability thing: You can't say "I've won the lottery jackpot twice", and when I say "I don't know you, and thus can't directly prove you haven't, but I think it's more likely than not you are lying", expect me to take "well, I can't prove I have, but it's your word against mine so since there are two of us its 50-50" as a serious rebuttal.

The facts are these: You said the following.

Spoiler:

it’s not against the rules but scum does in fact benefit in knowing about protectives

stares at you until you understand

I bet you’re scum and already know the answer, that’s why you’re saying this :3

stares at you until You Understand

In the same hour, you said:

i prove i town soon so paranoid for nothing this time i prom

And it continues:

as said many times before

i take care of self so no need for paranoid this game

shhhh just trust that i solve myself later ok

i have a card up my sleeve which means i get to be silly and goofy

don’t forget i’m town

just making sure no one forgets

i have specific skills that i can provide

i do be self resolving as a treat

funniest world is mafia doctor

When I suggested to mathblade that you were softing you knew why nobody had died N1:

I do also happen to think Ydrasse has been dropping heavy hints she knows why there was no kill.

Your response was:

i have information that will lead to [shot down before i can finish]

Same day:

didnt u say u were gonna prove ur town or something

yes but now isn't the time to talk about it
stares at you until you understand

The next day, you claimed one-shot disloyal checker. In other words, you had no information as to why there was a night one no-kill, you were not self-resolving at all, and you had not used your claimed shot at the time you said all that. Your explanation was that you had no idea of the existence of town protectives, but you thought IV talking about it was antitown and your 1291 and 1298 were not intended to be taken as softs, but to shut him down. The multiple references to being self-resolving were a gambit intended to draw either a kill or a block; and you didn't think your check was important enough to be bad for town if it worked and you did get killed or your one-shot blocked. You say your 2184 was simply a joke. You say I am possible scum who saw that, and decided to leave it alone, not kill you, not block you, but got lucky and was able to push you for it once you claimed a role that was incongruous with those softs.

I posit that you were in fact at least willing to let town believe you were softing protective, which explains your 1291, and 1298, and the references to being self-resolving, but the game state changed in some way that meant that was no longer +scum, and so you changed your intended fake claim.

You are correct in that neither of us can prove either of those circumstances are true, and in effect, it is one word against the other. I say that the balance of probabilities swings heavily in one direction. Others might have a different opinion.

[Val89]

so why is going you-Herta any different than Herta-you? You might not die tomorrow also?

You might still end up flipping Herta tomorrow, but I think with my green card on the table, and the "Well, Val is just scum" excuse off the table, and KT dead, which lets be honest, is the most likely outcome overnight, town has better chance of making the right play in ELO than if Herta flips green with me alive.

Me into Herta is a possibility, as I've acknowledged, but is much less likely: for a start, Mathblade has every excuse in the world to jump on and stay on me after a Herta misflip ("See? fucking told you. Can I have the lim of the 'slimy' slot I've been asking for since D2 now?); but how does he justify moving to Herta after mine?

I mean, this is what is playing out in front of your very nose right now - ask yourself why mathblade is voting Firebringer now, and only now, after you have voted there - remind yourself than in the last 48 hours, mathblade has said that he is happy with today being a gladiate, because (presumably) he will win and my lim will lead to town victory, gg, and that from his point of view, I am scum, but I could be partnered with KT.

[Val89]

No I don’t have anyone willing to vote you.

Including yourself, apparently.

There is not a single wagon at the moment that has enough support to go through without compromise right now: I wont vote Herta. KT says he won't vote Herta. Skitter and FB already have; IV and Ydra might, but then, absent a self-hammer, that's 4, and that lim still only happens with your help.

Town!you has no valid reason not to use the most powerful tool you have to push my lim forward. Scum!you has a massive reason - when the deadline ticks closer, and IV, or KT or skitter or whomever, has to decide between a wagon that they don't really want and a no lim, you don't want any extra votes on mine that might push them on the a wagon you say you want, but don't really.

[Val89]

ydra: Val is scum. I'm voting Val or Herta today.

Val: Put your money where your mouth is, then.

Ydra: Actually, Vals not scum <Votes everyone else>.

[Val89]

Both of you keep saying it, but neither of you seem willing to actually do it.

I'ld hammer Ydra to avoid a no-lim, and would be my preference if you are just going to yap-yap-yap about wanting me gone, but not do anything about it because you really want me around tomorrow. I would hammer FB too, given he is in the PoE of the other slots I trust today, but don't think he's scum.

I'm never doing Herta today.

Someone check my math, but a mislim today and a kill overnight means mylo tomorrow correct?

[Val89]

You said you were fine with today being a gladiate. You unvoted as soon as I added my own vote to my wagon and made it more likley.

People started saying they didn't think I was scum AFTER you unvoted.

I can quote the posts if you like?

Fact of the matter is your progression here makes zero sense, unless, actually, you were totally not fine with today being a gladiate.

[Val89]

Maybe tomorrow, your actions will match your words. I don't hold my breath.

VOTE: Ydrasse

E-1.

[Val89]

Kitty, I'll switch to FB, if it means no-lim, but I don't think FB is scum and flipping a town!FB all but guarantees your death tonight.

With FB alive, and scum!MB there is a possibility they shoot IV instead and try and claim FB must be scum rber. I don't think they could possibly risk that play with FB flipped town, and have to shoot you (unless they chose to nolim again, about which I won't complain).

[Val89]

Yeah, I forgot the ninja-ness was switched off.

[Val89]

Ydra self-hammered within a minute of Skitter saying she was considering voting Ydra.

If a Skitter-Ydra scum team wanted to end the day before town had time to coordinate, was that such a nessacary risk, particularly given how the fake claim tied the two together 2 days ago?

@FB: Is your working theory back to skitter trying to make the kill the night she was jailed and Ydra faked the check?

[Val89]

Ydra as scum does it to deny conversation
Skitter as scum does it to avoid looking like she’s cutting off the day.

And if Ydra had just self-hammered, we would be sitting here thinking "hmmm...why did

skitter

cut off the day?".

Give over.