Open 724 - Pick Your Power X/Y [Endgame]

[mutantdevle]

Damn, 9 pages already. I better start reading.

Also

VOTE: A50

Fuck you. Did you choose that on purpose because you saw that I chose it last PYP X/Y game I was in?

[mutantdevle]

Damn, 10 pages already. I better start reading.

[mutantdevle]

saske is town by the draft imo

If you're reasoning is that saske is town because scum does want PRs and hence wouldn't choose a number that is so 'unlikely' to be a PR, then you're wrong.

[mutantdevle]

to be clear, my intent was to be far enough down the draft that

- I would not be a target for the NK

- I would essentially be forced to be a VT or a terrible PR

i did actually try to be a PR once i saw that i was 6th on the draft though, and obv no comment on that

Fun fact, the 6th position is the most frequently night killed position in PYP X/Y games.

[mutantdevle]

Btw, I asked a friend if I should pick 6 or 7. I thought 7, but she said 6. Annoying.

Another fun fact: I originally chose 7 but then switched my number to 8 shortly before the deadline because I considered the number 7 too risky.

[mutantdevle]

Night 3 Vigilante/Vengeful: people keep crumbing this, stop crumbing. vig/venge someone based on community consensus. i doubt town picked vengeful but if anyone claims vengeful, policy lynch them (this is optimal play)

1-Shot Vigilante OR 1-Shot PGO: vig someone who's either dead weight or is likely to be lynched tomorrow. luckily we have a list of "most likely to be PR" to "least likely to be PR" so just try to hit vanillas imo. doubt anyone ever picks PGO in this setup

Cop OR 1-Shot Redirector: we hypoclaim cop targets tomorrow, remember to actually act like you have an inno

Universal Backup OR Role Cop: role cop is surprisingly not terrible. rolecop people at the top of the list. look for scum picking vengeful, redirector, etc.

Neighborizer OR Fruit Vendor: i sincerely hope no one picked fruit vendor. neighborize talkative hard-to-sorts who won't get NK'd. i used to be a great neighbour but now i just get NK'd so don't neighborize me thanks

I'd just like to build/correct some points on this.

When it comes to crumbing, just don't. Not in PYP X/Y. When scum KNOW whether or not you're likely to be a PR, they can spot your crumbs and soft claims far more easily. The most common reason for scum killing someone in PYP X/Y games is because they are confident they know the

exact

role of whoever they are killing. And when I say most common, I mean 40% of all night kills ever made in this setup. Do. Not. Crumb.

Vengeful, as a role, is not statistically AI for this setup. But yes, obviously lynch anyone who claims the role.

PGO has only ever been picked once.

I like the idea of hypo claiming cop results. I just worry that people are going to be able to stick to them.

Again, to reiterate, vengeful is not a scum exclusive role. In fact, it's been more frequently obtained by town but that's still close to 50/50. On the other hand, redirector is 100% scummy.

Unlike Math, I would like to be neighbourised

[mutantdevle]

1 is actually very scummy to pick for starters. I think scum are within the lowest picked #s (1,2,3,4,5) but no 2 scums would have picked the same #.

The #s 1-3 are often picked by scum. But from there it fluctuates.

And scum has actually picked the same number before (2). From this, they gained no PRs and lost the game. So whilst it is possible, I find it incredibly unlikely.

[mutantdevle]

Anyone feel like spoonfeeding me why any of the setup spec p1 makes sense?

Because most people get the setup spec wrong and I enjoy correcting them with facts and statistics :3

Seriously though, it can be helpful. Last game I was able to predict (and prevent) a mafia night kill and fairly confidently figure out one of the mafias through setup spec and analysis of past games. Sadly, I woke up dead that night since the mafia knew my role and had a vig. Town lost that game (mostly due to toxicity)

[mutantdevle]

Also I honestly dont think there's much merit to reads based on the draft, ESPECIALLY scumreads, but if it helps people find scum i see no reason to desist it (￣ω￣)

I'd say that someone's draft number alone is not enough to warrant a lynch. But I'll certainly be using it in conjunction with other scummy actions to deduce someone as scum. Sometimes there are patterns that you can't ignore.

[mutantdevle]

Tbh I thought 2 would've been picked more based on the previous draft data but w/e

Assuming we have the same data, why?

[mutantdevle]

@Dino: I mean, I'm half asleep already, so I want your opinion on this: Would it be a good idea for those who didn't get their picked roles to claim what they picked? On the one hand it tells us "someone who had draft priority" over that slot got that specific X/Y ability, but on the other hand that's us telling the scum whom exactly are the TPRs AND what type of abilities they may have.

Absolutely not a good idea. The only time this kind of claim is ever acceptable (IMO) is when you've just been lynched.

[mutantdevle]

Well, what I have learnt from this game is I should've picked 7 or 9 instead.

Oh god I had the exact same thought.

In before we sign up to the next game together and have flashbacks to this moment.

[mutantdevle]

Also assume Saske is town by draft because scum would never let someone pick such a high number?

They can and they have picked 'high' numbers. (though that's considering high to be any number over 20).

[mutantdevle]

Pick Your Power X/Y Except The Mod Chooses Who The Mafia Are

(Not An Art Project)

Pick your power x/y except the x and y choose who chooses who the mod is who in turn chooses who the mafia are

Did these 2 games actually happen? If so, I'd appreciate being linked to them.

[mutantdevle]

HOWEVER I posssess a SIGNIFICANT amount of CONTENT so even THEN the draft should be secondary if even factored in AT ALL Σ(-᷅_-᷄๑)

The draft should definitely be factored; especially for association tells.

[mutantdevle]

(who the hell picks 413 unless (a) they wanted to make sure they remained powerless, or (b) expected nobody to pick a certain role and wanted to go for that (which is still farfetched because while the pick guarantees nobody else would have picked the same number it also guarantees she will come after everyone who picked a unique number)

The scum that has picked high numbers in the past have done so in the hope that:

- Most people who picked lower numbers than that picked the same number and hence automatically go behind them.
- Had their other scum members pick fairly low numbers and have 1 high number just in case there was a lot of duplicates.

Personally, I don't think picking a high number is particularly AI in either way. However, if Saske does flip scum, then her partners almost definitely picked low ones.

[mutantdevle]

i disagree with this, i think scum usually goes for 2 lower numbers and 1 larger one (to get a "guaranteed" singleton)

This isn't actually too accurate. Though the level of inaccuracy depends on what you consider low and large numbers.

[mutantdevle]

I mean this is why reading from the DRAFT is SHITAKE in my opinion （⌒▽⌒）- really ANYONE could pick ANY number for ANY reason

Yes, but scum are able to coordinate their reasons. The number you submit knowing nothing about what anyone else is submitting and the number you submit knowing 2 of the numbers that others are submitting can be very different numbers.

That's why the numbers give us information. Mafia's numbers are more controlled.

[mutantdevle]

Beefster would probably say he can't read me anyway (actually so would mutant, but whatever).

I wouldn't say that I

can't

read you, more that I'm bad at it :3 But that isn't anything unique to you.

[mutantdevle]

I've seen the rest of the playerlist once or twice: {mutant, ...

From reading my games I assume? I don't recall ever having played with you.

[mutantdevle]

I like Simyk's angles and analysis but goddamn are those posts hard to read

I admire your commitment and effort with the caps lock and ascii but I find myself skimming because it's hard to decipher

Actually nvm I'm getting used to it now

I had the exact same development on her. One moment I was like "uh this is giving me a headache" and then the next I was like "I love this!"

[mutantdevle]

VOTE: Janitor

I'm liking Math, SIMYK & Icon - though I can't help thinking that my 'liking' of Math may actually just be hoping as I don't want to fall into to the trap of town reading someone just because they value the setup spec as much as I do again.

Everyone else I don't find too noteworthy.

This concludes my page of posting.

[mutantdevle]

Pick Your Power X/Y Except The Mod Chooses Who The Mafia Are

(Not An Art Project)

Pick your power x/y except the x and y choose who chooses who the mod is who in turn chooses who the mafia are

Did these 2 games actually happen? If so, I'd appreciate being linked to them.

tell me you're not serious

Math's title genuinely sounds like something that could have been run during the marathon games and the worst's 94 sounded like he had a stupid moment in a game of that title.

It's unlikely that these games happened but still plausible so I still asked because if they do exist then I don't want to miss out on the data from them.

[mutantdevle]

When was the last time he actually posted anything other than bad reads and confusion?? Here he is actually providing some information and cars to argue back with facts.

Hey! I'm not always bad reads and confusion! Sometimes I'm lucky reads and sexy.

Seriously though, I'm providing facts here because I have them. This is my favourite open setup since the draft mechanic gives us so much information, then top that with night kills, then consider what faction is likely to pick what role, and you have a setup that can be partially solved with logic rather than just reads and lucky night actions. I get so much more fun and satisfaction by working out who is scum and being right than reading who is scum and being right (probably because I'm not the best at the latter).

[mutantdevle]

Pick Your Power X/Y Except The Mod Chooses Who The Mafia Are

(Not An Art Project)

Pick your power x/y except the x and y choose who chooses who the mod is who in turn chooses who the mafia are

Did these 2 games actually happen? If so, I'd appreciate being linked to them.

I will run both next marathon weekend remind me

Don't worry I will. I've written it in ink on my hand.

[mutantdevle]

I want to lynch mutant a liiiittle bit

You can lynch my leg if you want. But I'd prefer you didn't hang me by my neck so that I can keep breathing and speaking.

[mutantdevle]

Yeah, stop with all the setup speccing please.

This triggers me so much.

[mutantdevle]

I do strongly consider meta, but are you really confident enough with your meta read to call Beef “lockscum”?

If you strongly consider meta, then take into account that all the setup spec I'll be doing will be backed up by statistics surrounding the meta of this setup. I believe Math is also basing some of his setup spec on setup meta as well.

[mutantdevle]

I mean, it hasn’t really seemed like you contributed anything really to this point (though the same could be said for me.)

The difference between you and Jailor though is that Jailor had the opportunities to contribute in the posts they made yet still didn't. On the other hand, you weren't present and hence couldn't contribute.

[mutantdevle]

Observation: Math seems a little more aggressive than usual?

[mutantdevle]

When was the last time he actually posted anything other than bad reads and confusion?? Here he is actually providing some information and cars to argue back with facts.

Point me to the multiple reads he made. I didn’t see them.

Where does he mention me making multiple reads?

If anything, he's complimenting my lack of focus on reads.

[mutantdevle]

Mutant - Neutral Scum; again, a lot of setup spec and not much in reads.

Ask anyone who has played a game with me.

This is probably a good thing.

[mutantdevle]

Are you left or right footed?

Right, I think.

[mutantdevle]

I mean, it hasn’t really seemed like you contributed anything really to this point (though the same could be said for me.)

The difference between you and Jailor though is that Jailor had the opportunities to contribute in the posts they made yet still didn't. On the other hand, you weren't present and hence couldn't contribute.

By Jailor do you mean Janitor?

Yes. I'm getting the wrong alt here

NO BRASS hes talkin about his buddy the scum jailor

Actually, my buddy, the jailer, is town thanks. 50% of them are.

[mutantdevle]

I have onions about that

Observation: Math seems a little more aggressive than usual?

This seems pretty much like Math's town meta to me.

Where do you see him being more aggressive?

His interactions with Ircher mainly. The Math I know comes across as more calm.

That said, I've seen the Math I know as both town and scum. I don't recall him being what I consider aggressive here as either alignment before. Hence, I don't think there's anything too AI about this at the moment. Perhaps it's something worth considering later though.

[mutantdevle]

I've never seen him this against fluff and catchup before either.

[mutantdevle]

UNVOTE:

[mutantdevle]

Wouldn't you think scum would want to pick it? It guarantees hitting a PR bar the redirector I think? As opposed to a vigilante which can a) hit Vanilla Town and b) can only be used N3. I guess Vengeful could be useful for both parties but picking vig would make more sense for town I think.

Vengeful has been in 7 PYP X/Y games. Of those, 57% (4) have been town.

[mutantdevle]

Why me then? Any opinions on what I posted? You didn't mention them, did you find my posts bad like the other people on my wagon?

Essentially the same reasons that Math has stated he is voting you tbh. Most of your early posts didn't seem to contribute anything and you seemed intent on picking apart ideas and things instead of contributing your own. I'm going to change my vote though.

[mutantdevle]

When was the last time he actually posted anything other than bad reads and confusion?? Here he is actually providing some information and cars to argue back with facts.

Point me to the multiple reads he made. I didn’t see them.

Where does he mention me making multiple reads?

If anything, he's complimenting my lack of focus on reads.

It was suggested by the wording but was not explicitly stated. Regardless if MathBlade hates this catch-up style, I’m still doing it because it is what I am used to doing.

Actually, he was referring to how in past games I'd have bad reads and spend a lot of time being confused. He then complimented how I am providing information here through the knowledge I have of this setup's meta.

[mutantdevle]

That’s super irrelevant; when did you think I thought MathDino was MathBlade?

VOTE: Ircher

You've been tingling my scum sensors ever since your second post but I decided not to vote you because I wanted to see where the janitor wagon would go.

This post bothers me because it reacts to brass' comment as though it was supposed to be game solving. Furthermore, the question here is phrased in a way that tries to appear like its game solving itself. Honestly, this just feels like scum trying to look busy.

Add that to how Ircher seems intent on shutting down any form of setup spec and seems to focus too much on other people's reads (in my opinion) and judge them based on that. That makes me comfortable with this vote.

[mutantdevle]

Cool, so I'm not going to read Ircher's huge ass post. If there's anything significant someone's just going to quote it anyway.

I'll CTRL+F for associations once we get some flips though.

[mutantdevle]

UNVOTE:

Mutant, you're voting Ircher. Why won't you read his posts?

Why the plural? I'm only not reading one of them because it's blatantly too long. I started reading it and saw that he was simply quoting every other post and describing it as null. What do I gain from reading that? I CTRL+F ed my own name to see if there was anything I need to address and there wasn't. There's nothing in that post (as far as I'm aware) that addresses my stance.

Honestly, when I look at a post like that I just think about Irchers own view:

I mean, scum do gain from being hard to follow because then they can be more width-washy about their reads.

[mutantdevle]

at minimum read his "reads at post ___" progression.

Done. All that stands out is the poor use of the colour yellow.

[mutantdevle]

I feel like one of Ircher and MathDino are probably scum.

[mutantdevle]

I feel like one of Ircher and MathDino are probably scum.

because we're scumreading each other and you can't believe either of us could be wrong?

No, because I scum read Ircher and scum lean you but I don't think you can be scum together.

[mutantdevle]

and mutant hasn't towntold yet which has a lot of scum equity for him"

I think mutant has been more 'conventionally' towny tonally this game than he usually seems??

Are we seriously going to start every game we play together by y'all saying something like "hmm, he usually seems more town than this!".

[mutantdevle]

mutant can you mutantcase it for me?

No.

I need substance to mutantcase, it's too early for that, + it's midnight for me and I'm going to bed. So maybe later, and later doesn't mean IRL tomorrow. Like it's quite early in the game, this read could drastically change by the end of next week. There's no point in casing something like this when it's heavily subject to change.

[mutantdevle]

I feel like one of Ircher and MathDino are probably scum.

Personally, I feel like 3 of the players in this game are definitely scum (but that's just me).

No, but I feel like there is specifically scum in the bracket {Ircher, MathDino}. To me, it doesn't feel like any old 1v1 that I usually simply observe. I feel somewhat confident that there's scum in this based on how each of them is playing and how they are interacting with each other. If either of these flip scum, I'm assuming the other is town.

[mutantdevle]

^while this is not intentionally a scumteam

in a very literal sense, THIS IS A SCUMCLAIM :O :O :O

I agree.

VOTE: A50

Let's do this. At least I won't be playing with "the silliest name that ever was" anymore. I had promised myself not to play in games with that person anyway, but I didn't know that was them.

Are you actually seriously attempting to game throw here? I haven't read on so I can only hope this is a reaction test or some kind of GAMBIT but if you're going to game throw like this then get the fuck out by replacing out. Throwing like this isn't necessary.

[mutantdevle]

Now which of the players before me on the draft would take that as town?

I don't think this is a question that we should be answering.

[mutantdevle]

5. 227 to 235 and 237 to 244 by mutantdevle: Aside from your two "I need to catch up posts", your first several posts deal almost exclusively with the setup and the draft and without anything to do with some kind of read one way or another. I don't necessarily consider that a good thing, and tbqh, it is actually a good way to look like town as scum. I'll have to see though if this trend continues, or if this is just part of your catch-up which you seem to be doing sequentially like I normally do. (Leaning Scum)

If you're going to consider setup spec as scummy

Then you may as well lock scum me now.


The longer I live the more setup spec I'm going to do and, with enough information, I could very well 'solve' the game rather than read it provided I can convince others of my point of view.

[mutantdevle]

8. 261 by Almost50: Overly impressed by mutant's towniness - Say what? I definitely didn't get that impression from mutant; what am I missing? (Null)

My meta and the ability to judge people on things other than their reads.

[mutantdevle]

What's with the dichotomy here? Are you saying they both can't be scum together or town together? Why?

I don't like Ircher - at all.
MathDino is different in a way I can only describe as more aggressive than usual and I don't like that either.
The way they are interacting with each other makes me conclude that they can't be scum together.

I see each individual as slightly scummy hence when they are together there is a higher concentration of scum. But they can't be scum together. Conclusion: there's a good chance there's 1 scum between them.

[mutantdevle]

How do you deduce percentages of someone being scum FROM RANDOMIZED NUMBERS?

Because they're not fully random.

Townies will pick their numbers based on how much they're willing to risk getting the PR they want over having a PR at all.

On the other hand, scum plans their numbers with each other. The task of deducing scum by their draft numbers is to first figure out which numbers were planned and which are based on the decision an individual would make in regards to my above statement. For example, if we have someone who is known for not taking risks picking numbers 1-3, it means they are probably scum and have been made to coordinate their number with their scum team. Likewise, if we have someone who makes a lot of gambits and reaction tests picking a high number, they were probably made to pick a higher number by their scum team instead of a lower one. If we were to catch such individual, then we could also deduce that someone on their scum team asserts more dominance than they do and hence why they haven't chosen their preference.

The very fact that scum gets to coordinate their numbers means that they are most certainly not random. This gives us information that we can use but only if we identify it correctly.

[mutantdevle]

mutant what games are you using as a reference for my aggressiveness

as i understand we've played 2 games together:
- switch, in which i was a cop with a n0 guilty
- tit for tat

are you claiming i'm currently more aggressive than i was in tit for tat...?

Yes, I think you are. Specifically, I feel like you are aggressive in a different way. There's no denying you're an aggressive player but here you feel more hostile aggressive rather than pushy aggressive, the latter I associate as town you.

To me, you've always been a town leader. Any aggression you've had has led somewhere and has always felt like it's coming from a town agenda. In this game, you really don't feel like a town leader. You're just another person shouting into the wind. Your aggression here is far more personal and isn't really leading to anything. Right now, it's like you're just arguing back and forth with people who disagree that setup spec means anything. Sure, that's not entirely your fault. I very much disagree with anyone that says speculating about the draft numbers doesn't give us information to work with. But honestly, I'd expect town!you to look past these foolish mortals and be more intent on proving how effective it can be rather than just arguing over it. Town!you would be fully acknowledging that most of the setup spec argument comes from a difference in playstyles and know that that's not something that's just going to change by making a few frustrated posts to each other. At least, that's how my interpretation of town you would act. If you are town this game, then it's evident that we've both over glorified each other's town abilities.

Also, you're forgetting that marathon game we played together where you were scum. Knowing that I have the ability to look obviously town, you're approach to me in that game was to buddy me. I picked up on that pretty quickly and correctly identified you as scum. Even though you still won the game, you still failed to convince me you were town as scum. I suspect that based on that failure, you may have changed your scum approach to town!me to, instead of embracing how town I can be and work around it, try to discredit it. It pinged me a little when you shut down A50's notion that my first set of posts in this thread were townie because I honestly felt so townie making them. Especially since I would have considered you'd have a good idea of how I play.

Of course, these are very personal reasons I have for seeing scummy intent within you. I don't expect anyone else to understand them which is why I have no intent on pushing this any time soon. But as things are now, I think the best flip for my own reads today would either be yours or Irchers.

[mutantdevle]

How is it too long? It's simply multiple long posts, compressed into one post. There's no reason why you can't read it, and as for "he's calling everything null!!!" that is absolutely not what the post is, on any level. As to what you gain from it, you get to sort Ircher -- although if I'm right, and you're scum here, that makes a lot of sense, because you already know what Ircher's alignment, and you're only worried about perception of you, which is why you CTRL+F'd the post to search for your name, and nothing else.

I used to do the multiple long posts in 1 post thing. I stopped doing that because people complained it's hard to read. Which in hindsight is exactly the case. When you see a massively long post you get demotivated to read it whereas the same information split into several posts feels a lot easier to read.

For the null thing, the first parts of his post do just that. That's all I read before skipping over the post. I have since reread parts of the post just because I felt like it and saw it's not entirely claiming things as null, but I still haven't gained anything from what I have read and I don't expect to gain anything from reading the whole thing. Most of the lines I've read have no impact on anything what so ever. They're just as null as the things he calls null. Besides, my understanding of the posts is that they are primarily his reads. His reads mean nothing to how I read him until someone else's alignment is confirmed. Reads alone don't tell you if someone is scum with someone, it's interactions that do. That's why I've made a mental note of it as a post to come back to later. The associations will be valuable when people start flippin', until then, I have no need to read those posts fully.

As for the CTRL+F, I have a policy of addressing absolutely everything that is addressed to me. I also occasionally reply to things about me but only if there's anything worth adding. So naturally, even the posts I don't read I'm going to want to check they're not asking me anything. Not being bothered to read + wanting to know if I'm being asked anything = CTRL+F.

[mutantdevle]

i can only assume you completely skimmed the entire argument i had with luca blight in tit for tat

i town lead when i'm in a playerlist that allows me to

some playerlists are weirdly anti-setup spec so i get sidetracked

like i feel like if 3 or 4 people suddenly went "yeah i'll sheep math on this" or "math is clearly the town leader" you'd be reading me differently because of how other slots treat me

I skimmed some of the argument but I did intentively read most of it so that I could try and give a convincing read on both of you. You still seemed like a town leader in that though. And you did face a bit of criticism in that game, I interpreted town jumping on A50 like that as a massive "fuck you" directed towards you and your attempts to lead the town.

In this game, the only people really against you those who disagree with setup spec and A50 being saddened by you not town reading him. I don't think the way others perceive you has anything to do with this tbh. It's all about how I perceive you.

[mutantdevle]

Ya, I figured picking Vengeful is not really typical for either faction but would you agree about scum profiting more from it from the vig option and/or a vig being more likely town?

Vig is exactly 50/50 out of 8 games. But I do think scum would rather have a vig than vengeful.

[mutantdevle]

Good, it wasn't a gambit.

What wasn't?

[mutantdevle]

If you're paying attention then it's clear from context.
Further details are better left for much later.

Do you mean Almost50's behaviour that lead him to replace out or him claiming he chose neighbouriser? Because if it's neither of those then it might not be as clear you think.

[mutantdevle]

Next, we have my wagon. I'm pretty sure Mathdino and mutant are not going to be moving off it anytime soon and while they do scumread me, I'm not sure how much is based off a general scum vibe from me and how much is because they did not like my entrance (not my first post but the subsequent ones) and do not like my personality/playstyle.

I have no issue with your personality but I do take into consideration the possibility that my scum read on you is based on your playstyle. I'm yet to decide whether or not it is mostly based on that though.

[mutantdevle]

Then, we have the Lalendra wagon. At least two players that I more or less townread are on it... But I'm not sure if it will get anywhere. Like, I agree that Lalendra hasn't done much, but what is this wagon accomplishing?

Yeah, I think I'm really starting to prefer the Lalendra wagon over The Janitor right now...
VOTE: Lalendra

Well things like this make me think that my scum read on you is more on you actually being scummy rather than your playstyle.

You acknowledge that this wagon has only formed out of Lalendra's lack of activity and that it likely isn't going to achieve anything. Yet you then join it? Literally what... why are you on this wagon? You don't scum read Lalendra. You acknowledge the flaws within it. You don't need to be on this wagon. This post comes across as though you feel like you need to be doing something with your vote - which I've seen more often from scum who feel pressured than I have town.

[mutantdevle]

After some thinking this morning over my coffee I've come to realize that I'm just not putting in the effort needed for these games. I'm not really enjoying it either so, I've come up with a solution. I'm going to complete the games that I'm in which are near completion, and then take a week or two without playing. That being said, this game is not near completion, this decision though has been long coming and I think a few people who have played with me in the past month or so probably see these things from me. Enjoy the game guys.

@mod please replace me

I was looking forward to playing with someone I've seen in the queues so much.

[mutantdevle]

if there's a fruit vendor there can't be a neighbourizer

If there's a fruit vendor instead of a neighbouriser I will policy lynch them for being so fucking stupid.

[mutantdevle]

I feel like this is an oversimplification of the situation. Sure, it doesn't make much sense as either alignment, but thinking "OK, I will roleclaim on page 1 and accuse others of rolefishing so I look like a VI and apply WIFOM" makes a LOT more sense than "hey, this player voted me because of mechanics in RVS. They must be scum rolefishing! You know what I should totally do now??? Claim. That makes a lot of sense!"

Y'know what, I actually really agree with this. From my experience, scum tends to accuse people role fishing more and it doesn't make sense to me either as to why they'd respond to someone role fishing with actually claiming.

[mutantdevle]

Iso'd mutantdevle. Overuse of setup spec discussison can lead to telling scum what they need to fakeclaim or who they need to kill.
I will argue against misinformation and misuse of basically correct spec if I see it but otherwise would prefer to leave enough intact to solve later.

Hmm I read this as a scumread.
That's one point off dave but *shrug*

I don't think it was a scum read, I interpreted it as him explaining how he thinks misuse of setup spec is scummy and he was cautioning me on not doing that.

You don't have to worry about that though, I don't plan on revealing any information that helps the mafia. Hence why I'll never release my spreadsheet of meta publically.

[mutantdevle]

{Eddie}
{Simyk}
{Mutant}
{The Worst, Iconeum}
confident above^ are all town, leaving a PoE of {Mathdino, Ausuka, Davesaz, Lalendra, Myloninja13, The Janitor, Lovebird, Taly, Ircher}

Does anybody disagree with this?

That looks like a very agreeable reads list in my opinion. The only things I'd change would be to swap the worst and Davesaz and remove every bit of confidence :3

[mutantdevle]

4. you saw me tunnel A50 for half the day in TM followed by eventually townreading him. i always leave A50 alive for a day so i can sort him. if i have no reasons to townread him by the end of D1, he's scum.
in this case, yeah he's town.

Upon reading A50 as town does that make you conclude that I am scum?

[mutantdevle]

wtf is ausuka's alignment

If it's worth anything, I have a gut scum on ausuka that I'm heavily ignoring because there is literally nothing to it.

[mutantdevle]

eyyyy lmao get fucked ausuka

But lovebird is lower?

Or are you saying ausuka cos we were literally just talking about them?

[mutantdevle]

do you think lovebird is scum?

They're null for me at the moment. I'm yet to properly look into them.

[mutantdevle]

I would honestly vig davesaz at the moment BUT that's JUST because I know my scumread is unique at this point and noone would lynch him... ლ(ಠ_ಠლ)

Then you should not be allowed near the vig role.

[mutantdevle]

asking to be lynched rather than vigged when we had no intention of ever vigging you is literally a PR softclaim

Can you like not point this stuff out thanks?

I understand that you of the belief that scum are going to spot these things anyway but there will always be the chance that they miss it. You pointing out ruins that chance.

I, for one, didn't notice this until you pointed it out.


Also, just as a general warning to everyone: DON'T. FUCKING. CRUMB. OR. SOFT.

Scum WILL find you. They may even figure out your exact role. They're good at it in this setup and so many people in the past have been killed for it.

[mutantdevle]

Also, just as a general warning to everyone: DON'T. FUCKING. CRUMB. OR. SOFT.

It wasn't a

soft

.

Too bad. It's now being interpreted as one.

[mutantdevle]

And I did state my Mutant read clearly so far, I'd like to see them do something other than push an older wagon

I can't both be vote parking AND pushing an old wagon.

I'm vote parking and I'm comfortable here.

[mutantdevle]

Also, I feel like I'm missing something here.

I don't get why A50 and now Taly are getting so emotional. From my point of view, this game has been quite calm. I don't get where all this hostility and toxicity is coming from...

[mutantdevle]

"Taly's being hilarious",

This specifically is in reference to how Math finds it funny that you think the draft numbers are random.

I'm not sure if you understand now why the numbers are NOT random and are still confused by this then ISO me because I explained it earlier.

[mutantdevle]

VOTE: Iconeum

Does this vote bother anyone else?

[mutantdevle]

@Lovebird can you please explain what on earth is going through your head when you decide to randomly naked vote the #1 in the draft list without any real discussion surrounding the potential of them being scum?

[mutantdevle]

Assumes we have 1shot vig and n3 vig ofc but i rarely see games without them

There's only ever been 1 game where town has had both the 1 shot vig and the N3 vig...

This is such a crappy thing to rely on.

[mutantdevle]

@Lovebird can you please explain what on earth is going through your head when you decide to randomly naked vote the #1 in the draft list without any real discussion surrounding the potential of them being scum?

I said my reasons for iconeum being scum. Nobody else is voting ausuka, so I decided to switch things up.

Ehh, this is all you've really said:

VOTE: A50 for being salty I got the nr1 spot with nr1.

Scummy

It really makes me feel like you wanna appear active while not having to take a stance, and I scumread you for it.
My vote isn't RVS.

Awkward

VOTE: A50 for being salty I got the nr1 spot with nr1.

Scummy

Can you tell me what is scummy?

It really makes me feel like you wanna appear active while not having to take a stance, and I scumread you for it.
My vote isn't RVS.

Awkward

?

Page 6 rvs

What don't you get about that one? "And I scumread you for it. My vote isn't rvs." So formal, doesn't feel natural.

Only really the last quote there that actually delves into explanation.

I take it you consider draft numbers as irrelevant when deciding who to push?

[mutantdevle]

And in contrast with Mutant, I actually do think this is town!Math.

Can you clarify on what you mean by this?

[mutantdevle]

If I ger my lalendra lynch today I will buy drinks for the entire wagon

I don't like alcohol. It's fitting because I don't like the reasons for lynching Lalendra either.

[mutantdevle]

Oh, and Eddie waiting until immediately after to vote, like...? Couldn't you've voted me way earlier? (Like before I self-voted?) What made you suddenly decide to vote me?

How is this a question when the answer is damn obvious?

[mutantdevle]

like i said, i'm saving my vote for the autohammer
consider me on ircher

VOTE: Janitor

Why do you feel like your vote NEEDS to be the hammer?

I mean, you'll give him time to claim right?

[mutantdevle]

What do ppl consider the most bomb af scum role in this setup?

I can do you better, I KNOW the bomb af scum roles. I don't wish to disclose them though.

[mutantdevle]

she benefits from it more often when she's town lol

i wouldn't call her scumgame especially top tier

okay FIRST OF ALL
you played one game with me as scum and you broke the goddamn setup within HOURS, thereby demotivating and demoralizing the entire scumteam and I had to do everything ALL BY MYSELF
so
this is hurtful

So the message of your post here is that you're better at scum than math thinks?

[mutantdevle]

Mutant, what are your confident reads rn?

Dave, SIMYK and you are all town from my perspective. That said, as with all my reads I have doubts. I fear my theory on why Dave is town is wrong, something feels weird about SIMYK, and I'm paranoid you're buddying me.

Whilst I'm here, I may as well drop a reads list.

Town:

davesaz
Eddie Cane
SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis

Town lean:

Iconeum
the worst

Null:

Lalendra
Myloninja13
Lovebird
Taly

Scum Lean:

Mathdino
Ausuka
The Janitor
Ircher

Scum:

If anyone would like me to expand on any of my reads then feel free to ask.

[mutantdevle]

How do you feel about 151 and 828 Mutant

I have my doubts about Math but these seem protown.

I'm unfamiliar with A50's scum meta (I've seen him as a SK but I doubt 1 game where he is scum is too valuable as meta anyway) and I agree with most* of his setup spec.

Neither of those has any effect on my read of him. For example, I guarantee I'd be setup speccing regardless of my alignment.

[mutantdevle]

Perhaps because it wasn't obvious? Like, it may seem obvious out of context; however, in context, it isn't really that obvious.

How does a lack of context make it any less obvious?

Besides, what context exactly am I missing?


You self-voted. That's scummy. A naked vote soon after that clearly implies it was in light of your own self vote.

[mutantdevle]

Perhaps because it wasn't obvious? Like, it may seem obvious out of context; however, in context, it isn't really that obvious.

How does a lack of context make it any less obvious?

Besides, what context exactly am I missing?


You self-voted. That's scummy. A naked vote soon after that clearly implies it was in light of your own self vote.

1) Self-voting is by far not scummy. Do you scumread A50 for self-voting earlier?
2) His vote came AFTER I clarified that the self-vote was more or less a parody of something Ausuka stated. Thus, the connection isn't as obvious as you make it to be.

1) No, because I town read A50 for other reasons and have seen him self-hammer as town before which almost cost town the game who only won through a coin flip involving WIFOM. Self-voting is most definitely scummy. Do you honestly believe a townie self-voting achieves anything that is good for town?
2) Your parody was unclear at best but even then does not excuse the action of self-voting.

[mutantdevle]

1) Now you are simply applying a double standard. A self vote is useful at times, athough frequenty, it is simply used as an AtE. Mine was clearly not. Also, I believe the burden of proof is on you to show me multiple instances where self-voting is scummy. The burden is not on me to give a reason that self-voting is townie--I never said it was; more often than not, it is null. If there is anything self-voting achieves, it generally gets people to question and second-guess their reads.

I'm not applying a double standard. A50's actions are and were still shitty and we've acknowledged as such. But I'm obviously not going to base a read alone on such action.

When is a self-vote ever useful to town? Please explain how you think a townie voting for themselves helps town win the game.

2 examples of self-voting being bad have already been given in this game. A50 self-hammering previously almost lost town the game and Beefster voting for themselves in Mylo directly lost town the game. I'm sure I could find plenty of examples where self-voting has been a shitty thing to do if I was to scan the forum for it. I, however, choose not to waste my time doing that as I don't see how proving this 1 point to you advances this game. On the other hand, I highly doubt anyone at all could provide a single example of a townie self-voting which helped them to win the game.

Instead, I'd like to refer you to this: https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Self-voting

Having read that, I hope you understand why many players will policy lynch players who self-vote. Math is currently very willing to policy lynch you. I'm sure Eddie's vote was a policy vote as well rather than because he thinks you are scum. The moral of the story is you shouldn't ever self-vote as town because it provides no tactical advantages. I don't care if you claim you did it out of a bit of fun, there was a serious wagon on you and all would have taken was 2 people to quickly come in and lynch you. Besides, we can't know for certain that was your motive - and I think most of us don't care anyway. Don't self-vote if you're town.

[mutantdevle]

I highly disagree with lynching Lalandra in the current state btw. If y'all ever want me to join that wagon, you gotta

really

convince me they are scum.

[mutantdevle]

Thanks ducky <3

[mutantdevle]

While this practice is commonly seen as scum-indicative, no data has been compiled on the actual effectiveness of self-voting as a towntell or a scumtell. The lack of strong evidence one way or the other has led some players to believe that voting for self-voters is actually just a Policy Lynch for anti-town behavior.

While this practice is commonly seen as scum-indicative, no data has been compiled on the actual effectiveness of self-voting as a towntell or a scumtell.

The lack of strong evidence one way or the other has led some players to believe that voting for self-voters is actually just a Policy Lynch for anti-town behavior.

While this practice is commonly seen as scum-indicative, no data has been compiled on the actual effectiveness of self-voting as a towntell or a scumtell.

The lack of strong evidence one way or the other has led some players to believe that voting for self-voters is actually just a Policy Lynch for anti-town behavior.

While this practice is commonly seen as scum-indicative, no data has been compiled on the actual effectiveness of self-voting as a towntell or a scumtell.

The lack of strong evidence one way or the other has led some players to believe that voting for self-voters is actually just a Policy Lynch for anti-town behavior.

While this practice is commonly seen as scum-indicative, no data has been compiled on the actual effectiveness of self-voting as a towntell or a scumtell.

The lack of strong evidence one way or the other has led some players to believe that voting for self-voters is actually just a Policy Lynch for anti-town behavior.

While this practice is commonly seen as scum-indicative, no data has been compiled on the actual effectiveness of self-voting as a towntell or a scumtell.

The lack of strong evidence one way or the other has led some players to believe that voting for self-voters is actually just a Policy Lynch for anti-town behavior.

That's the fucking point smartass....


You get policy lynched for self-voting. So don't self-vote.

[mutantdevle]

No, Lovebird is being a dick. Or is scum pretending to be bad town. Would lynch in both cases.

The problem was that you were not getting your reasoning across. Give me your thoughts on Lovebird in exchange for me voting Lalendra?

lovebird null (has dropped) which is while concerning not as annoying to me rn as a scumread
if there's a genuine dichotomy in ausuka/lovebird lovebird is scum like 65% of the time I think

VOTE: lalendra

Well this is scummy...

Did you really need to bribe the worst with your vote to get this information from him? I guarantee you would have got this had you just asked. NGL this feels like a clever way to be on Lalendra's wagon whilst being somewhat against it.

[mutantdevle]

VOTE: Lovebird

[mutantdevle]

Also, I'm just gonna put this out there, but if Lovebird reaches L-1, I'm hammering because 1) I want the day to end 2) While I don't have much a read there, I don't think I can read them well, and I think the case laid out there is reasonable enough to warrant lynching 3) There really isn't reason to delay.

So in other words,

@Lovebird: If you are going to claim, you probably want to do so now.

Can someone remind me again why we haven't insta-lynched Ircher? They just keep vomiting scum...

[mutantdevle]

Not much tbh. Basically, your playstyle is incompatible with the way I tend to read people (based on their reads and their reasons for those reads).

So... you're not going to give Lovebird the proper chance to claim because you don't like their playstyle?

[mutantdevle]

I haven't read in a while, will catch up sometimes tomorrow.

[mutantdevle]

Will catch up tonight (probably, I'm prioritising coursework rn).

[mutantdevle]

Catching up now.

[mutantdevle]

TJEY JEEP VOMIRING LOGIC

MUTANT
EXPLAIN WHY They're scum coming from a sheer analytical logical pov (aka. analyse within scope of playstyle--review Ausuka reads too)

Will do tomorrow (day 2).

[mutantdevle]

MATH-SENSEI do you think I am WRONG to think that Janitor's posting is getting STRONGER each post?

No, but that doesn't mean your conclusion that they must be town is correct. Sometimes scum will take criticisms and points against them as ways to improve their current game. If there is anything that Janitor was criticised for, then suddenly started doing the opposite of, then I'd say that's scum indicative.

[mutantdevle]

I stand corrected, picking 2 is not scummy. For some reason I just assumed scum would pick it. That said, 2 is scummy if 1 is town, going by my stats.

I'm glad you finally realised this :3 I've been facepalming every time you've said 2 is a scummy number this game but have never been bothered to really explain it to you.

I agree that 2 is scummy when 1's are town though.

[mutantdevle]

Town role cop.

2 questions that are kinda the same but not really:

Why did you pick role cop?

Why did you pick role cop over UB?

[mutantdevle]

scum goes for universal backup a LOT in this setup

No they don't lol.

[mutantdevle]

mutant i kinda need you to catch up to the setup spec/draft pick shit

Your plan works for the most part.

I'm currently thinking it over in my head of whether Lalendra should only out Icon's role if it's one of the scummier ones. But I feel like any role other than cop is at least somewhat scummy for the 1st draft order. And we can hardly say "only out their role if it isn't cop".

Everyone is expecting Icon to be cop anyway, so is outing his role really so bad? Besides, if Icon is outed as not being the cop, then that means scum will have to put effort into finding the cop which would distract their attention. Which likely means they'll start shooting people higher up in the list which potentially gives themselves away.


So I think Lalendra should out Icon's role regardless of what it is.





Any setup spec specifically you would like me to weigh in on?

[mutantdevle]

mathdino

NGL I would actually really appreciate this. I'm heavily paranoid of math being scum but I just so want him to be town.

Only cop!Icon should check math though. A cop check on math is only valuable if the cop is prepared to out early or, in Icon's case, is probably going to be outed quickly anyway.

[mutantdevle]

@Eddie: bad call, i'm just confirmed scum if i'm alive in lylo due to my placement in the draft and my activity/lategamesolving
it's not unlikely i get killed literally tonight

Yeah, if we make it Lylo together, I'm probably voting you :P


Obviously, a cop check on you isn't the most effective use of the role, but I'd certainly be more at ease if I was able to confidently town read you.

[mutantdevle]

VOTE: Ausuka

L-1.

[mutantdevle]

If (mod scumFirms lalendra)
{

• potentialVig shoots lalendra;
  If (icon != cop)
  {
  • cop checks icon;
  }
  else
  {
  • cop checks janitor;
  }

}


If (Lovebird == town)
{

• potentialVig shoots ausuka;
  cop checks janitor;
  lalendra rolecops icon;

}

Else
{

• potentialVig does not shoot;
  cop checks janitor;
  jailKeeper jails eddie_cane;
  lalendra rolecops icon;

}

//Sound good?

[mutantdevle]

If (icon != cop)
{
cop checks icon;
}

this part applies universally actually now that i think about it

i'm kinda just assuming iconeum is the cop here

I think it would be a waste for both a cop and a role cop to check Icon at once tbh.

[mutantdevle]

I'm pretty sure Lovebird won't flip scum here, so sure!

And why didn't you mention that before she got lynched?

What makes you think the wagon would suddenly collapse just because this 1 person says they are town?

[mutantdevle]

I'm pretty sure Lovebird won't flip scum here, so sure!

And why didn't you mention that before she got lynched?

What makes you think the wagon would suddenly collapse just because this 1 person says they are town?

It worked when Mathdino did it! If he had reasons for LB being town, which he presumably does, that would have lead somewhere. Even if he didn't, actively working towards stopping the wagon going through and pushing something else rather than going "right I'm just going to sheep x and y" would have likely been helpful and wouldn't have hurt.

Why are you so eager to jump to Mylo's defence?

I wasn't defending Mylo, it was more a criticism of you. Your question felt like it was opportunistic and an attempt to look busy.

[mutantdevle]

That makes absolutely no sense, unless you think I'm scum with Lovebird or Lalendra, which arguably makes even less sense.

I mean, it's not impossible that they're both town ¯\_(ツ)_/¯


Besides, I was just criticising your stance there. You can do scummy things independent of being scum.

[mutantdevle]

Math, if a cop investigated Janitor and got inno I doubt they'd out that immediately.

So are you saying you'd want the cop lynched later in the game if they ever claimed an inno on Janitor?


This kind of thing is exactly why I'm not town reading you.

[mutantdevle]

Personally, I'm waiting for Icon's night action result.

[mutantdevle]

I wish he was around more.

My apologies. I've been a mixture of a busy and avoiding the thread recently.

[mutantdevle]

I want to lynch in lalendra/janitor today.
Preferably janitor. Him flipping town confirms math as scum and vice versa. Scum!math I think is very unlikely to be pushing janitor just because of this reason. Hence janitor is good lynch.

It's possible I got jailed by the worst, but I think it's more likely there is a scum RB. Likely Lalendra based on position. We can lynch janitor over lalendra because there is only 1 role worth blocking left.

Killing lalendra and flipping RB will effectively kill me though.

Does a jail not go through if you are killed?

It does but the chances tw the TOWN jailkeeper intentionally roleblocked the cop are 0% and if Mafia killed you that was honestly quite a good thing considering the suspicion placed on you.

NGL Icon this result really does feel like scum who doesn't want to give a result over fear of associations.

[mutantdevle]

For the record, I'm going to ignore everything that Lalendra says about other players due to WIFOM bs.

[mutantdevle]

I'm VT.

May I just ask Eddie, did you already know that?

I can claim what role I submitted on command.

[mutantdevle]

We're just waiting for claims, that's all. It's not like we can't post, it's just better to finish massclaim and go from there.

This.

[mutantdevle]

we also need mutant's pick

it would be really damn nice if someone picked something other than tracker/neighborizer

Well I have some bad news for you...

[mutantdevle]

Just something to think about here:

If scum picked role cop, they probably didn't do it just so that they can find out peoples roles. The main reason scum wants role cop is to prevent themselves from being investigated by it. In this game, scum either have the cop/redirector slot or the doc/RBer slot. If either of those slots were investigated by a role cop and produced a redirector or RBer result instead of a cop or doc result then that's essentially a guilty. By having the role cop, this gives scum the freedom to lie about their role within their slot.

My question is, why would they pick mafia role cop if it was their highest position? The whole point of having the role cop is the allow them to lie about other roles they have. The only way they'd pick role cop is if they were confident they'd get a role that would perhaps need lying about. This suggests that there's scum above Lalendra in the draft order. That could only be Iconeum. In the #1 position, that's the only way they'd be entirely confident they'd get a role that needs lying about. So my theory is that Icon is actually a redirector and they chose role cop to give him the freedom to claim cop.

[mutantdevle]

I just looked at my statistics of this game and scum has never chosen rolecop with their highest position. I'm sorry but I just find that there is no way mechanically that scum chose role cop with their most likely to get a PR slot unless they blatantly misunderstand how this setup works. Considering Lalendra has played this setup before, I'm inclined to doubt that.

VOTE: Iconeum

I feel like that based on our setup information Icon is far more likely to be lying about not getting a result than Janitor is specifically a role blocker. If Icon is town then that guilties Janitor. Likewise, Janitor town guilties Icon.

@Lalendra, on the 1% chance we're wrong about you, your move tonight is to check Janitor if they do not die today. To clarify, nothing will stop you being lynched, but obviously your word suddenly means a lot more when you flip (if you're town).


Tin foil theory: Role cop was chosen in order to allow both the cop and doc slots to lie about being their townier option. Hence the scum team could be all 3 of Lalendra, Icon and Janitor.

[mutantdevle]

Hmm, here's something to think about over not lynching Lalendra:

Most scums seem to choose UB instead of role cop. So if we do lynch Janitor, and they are the RBer, the scum may keep the role with Lalendra still alive. It's entirely possible that Lalendra is a universal backup and the probability of this is higher than her actually being the role cop.


And another point of evidence suggesting that scum has a RBer is that A LOT of scum teams have chosen both the UB/role cop slot and doc/RBed slot in the same game.


I think I prefer Lalendra actually. I'm either lynching Lalendra or Icon today - Janitor is too risky given the whole point of lynching him before confirmed scum is to try and eliminate the RBer. But since theres a chance Lalendra is a backup, this completely nullifies the point of lynching hime.

VOTE: Lalendra

[mutantdevle]

That's L-1 I think.

[mutantdevle]

I just don't even understand anymore...


At least they killed Math, now I can town read him :3

[mutantdevle]

Iconeum 1 - Cop

the worst 3 - Jailkeeper

Lalendra 5 - Role Cop

Ircher 11 - Neighborizer
SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis 413 - VT, Universal Backup/Rolecop

Mathdino 2 - 1-Shot Vigilante

The Janitor 2 - VT, unclaimed

Beefster/Myloninja 4 - VT, Tracker

Taly 4 - VT, Neighborizer
Almost50/Davesaz 8 - VT, Neighborizer
mutantdevle 8 - VT, Neighbourizer
Ausuka 6 - VT, Neighborizer

Lovebird 6 - VT, Tracker

brassherald/Eddie Cane 6 - VT, Tracker


@Janitor, what role did you try to get?

[mutantdevle]

WHAT is there to NOT understand?

I'm just confused about Lalendra's flip. But not much point dwelling on that.

What I would say about it though is that, since scum did not get the role cop, I revoke my suspicion of Icon.

[mutantdevle]

Ahh, thanks Saske.

[mutantdevle]

Iconeum 1 - Cop

the worst 3 - Jailkeeper

Lalendra 5 - Role Cop

Ircher 11 - Neighborizer
SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis 413 - VT, Universal Backup/Rolecop

Mathdino 2 - 1-Shot Vigilante

The Janitor 2 - VT, Neighborizer

Beefster/Myloninja 4 - VT, Tracker

Taly 4 - VT, Neighborizer
Almost50/Davesaz 8 - VT, Neighborizer
mutantdevle 8 - VT, Neighbourizer
Ausuka 6 - VT, Neighborizer

Lovebird 6 - VT, Tracker

brassherald/Eddie Cane 6 - VT, Tracker


@Janitor, what role did you try to get?[/quote]

[mutantdevle]

I edited that badly. You get the point though.

Icon, did you get role blocked again?

[mutantdevle]

I'd also like to say that I am town reading Ircher based on the fact that 100% of the people who have received the Neighbourizer role in past games have been town.

I

was

town reading Davesaz for attempting to pick neighbourizer but since A LOT of people have picked neighbourizer I feel like I probably shouldn't be doing that. That said, they are the only one we can be sure didn't lie about it.


Also, kinda sucks that our only PRs at this point are the cop and the neighbouriser.

[mutantdevle]

pedit: IF he did not and IRCHER did instead I would preposterize that is as GOOD as a COUNTERCLAIM, there is NO reason for Ircher to be roleblocked instead.

Could you rephrase this / explain it a little more?

[mutantdevle]

This is one of several upcoming posts which is just documentation to myself rather than making any strong statements:

Based on draft number alone the scum are as follows:

Taly > Icon > Janitor >

Saske > Ausuka / Eddie >

Davesaz / mutantdevle > Ircher

.

[mutantdevle]

It would be BAFFLING to imagine why Iconeum would NOT claim roleblocked here, it is simply implausible (O_O ;;)

If Icon has not been roleblocked then it's probably fair to say that the worst may have targetted him - either to protect him or in the belief he was scum.

[mutantdevle]

Ahiru-tan would NEVER... (눈_ლ)

He SAID he would STICK to Math-sensei's plan. I am POSITIVE he jailed in {you, Eddie-kun, Taly} which is ALSO why I am REMOVING the three of you from the ROLEBLOCKER pool

ALSO why is TALY of all people the MOST likely to be MAFIA draft wise? (O_O ;;)

Ahh yes, forgot about how, knowing him, he would certainly have stuck to Math's plan.

[mutantdevle]

This is one of several upcoming posts which is just documentation to myself rather than making any strong statements:

Based on draft number alone the scum are as follows:

Taly > Icon > Janitor >

Saske > Ausuka / Eddie >

Davesaz / mutantdevle > Ircher

.

Please completely ignore this ^^ post. I used the wrong stats.

This is the correct version:

Ircher* > SIMYK > mutant / davesaz >

Icon > Ausuka / Eddie >

The Janitor > Taly

* = very limited data.

This is based on how frequently each number has been picked in each of this setup's past games.

[mutantdevle]

^^ Taly picked the only number that doesn't have a 20% scum rate or higher.

[mutantdevle]

Since because NO ONE has ever picked 413 before HOW are you deriving my stats?

Ahh, your number is classified as a 'high' number. Aka picking a number that is highly unlikely to be a duplicate.

[mutantdevle]

No scum has ever picked a number

that

high, but I don't think that's relevant to qualify as a 'high' number. The intent of picking said number is still the same in that you want to avoid duplicates by guaranteeing you are the highest unique number.

[mutantdevle]

No I comprehend as much, but I am sure SOMEONE whom picked above 13 has happened before and THAT is what you are using as an EXAMPLE?

I classify 'high numbers' as numbers over 20.

[mutantdevle]

Based on role claims alone the scum are as follows:

Eddie > SIMYK >

{All the neighbourizer claims} >

Icon > Taly.

[mutantdevle]

@SIMYK you are missing several games.

This setup has been used in opens: 374, 427, 472, 486, 506, 518, 542, 579, 593, 630, 649, 675, 701.

I've extracted as much data as I can from these games to produce a series of statistics which I keep in a huge spreadsheet.

[mutantdevle]

Today is day 3 and we have killed 0 scum.

Most games end on day 3 / 4. Only 23% of games have made it to day 5 and there's never been a day 6.

Chances are, we have already lost this game. We are in perpetual MYLO which means we MUST kill scum every single day in order to win.

[mutantdevle]

The draft analysis seems silly to me (other than scum coordination of numbers) because surely everyone aims for a PR regardless of alignment?

Roles and draft combined make Ircher town to me and I don't think it does that for anyone else.

Yes, but HOW you go about getting those PRs varies. Scum have the advantage as they are able to co-ordinate their numbers.

[mutantdevle]

As a townie, I need to correctly identify

3

5 other townies and 3 scums in order to win the game. Forgive me if I don't seem too interested in forming reads this day phase because I'm going to attempt to solve this game mechanically rather than through reading into too much of what people post.

The cost of solving a game mechanically means I'm almost certainly going to be biting a night kill if I reach any degree of success, so not only do I need to achieve that success, but I also need to convince the rest of you towns to sheep my conclusions once I am dead. This will be especially hard since a few of you seem put off by the whole premise of mechanically solving a game.

So it's fair to say I'm not feeling confident about winning this game - but with a little luck and a little faith from my fellow town members we could come back from our disadvantage here.

Pedit: lol, I thought this was a 12 player game instead of 14 for some reason. You're right that we still technically have a mislynch. But since a mislynch and 3 scum lynches means we'd make it to day 6, I doubt that's how the game would end considering day 6 has NEVER been achieved.

[mutantdevle]

but I don't think you can read into someone choosing a high number, for example.

I can and I will.

Draft number alone is not enough to conclude scum, but I WILL be using it as evidence.

[mutantdevle]

Mutant I SYMPATHIZE with your stance but it will be DIFFICULT for me to be won over IF I cannot see the information that has LEAD to your conclusions. I preposterize that will come in your FINAL post? (ʃ⌣́,⌣́ƪ)

I will give information as and when appropriate. My spreadsheet will always remain private though.

[mutantdevle]

Well I'm off for the night.

[mutantdevle]

This is one of several upcoming posts which is just documentation to myself rather than making any strong statements:

Based on draft number alone the scum are as follows:

Taly > Icon > Janitor >

Saske > Ausuka / Eddie >

Davesaz / mutantdevle > Ircher

.

Please completely ignore this ^^ post. I used the wrong stats.

This is the correct version:

Ircher* > SIMYK > mutant / davesaz >

Icon > Ausuka / Eddie >

The Janitor > Taly

* = very limited data.

This is based on how frequently each number has been picked in each of this setup's past games.

I love how this is the total opposite of your earlier post.

The original thing was numbers chosen most frequently to least frequently, the 2nd list is numbers chosen most frequently to least frequently

by scum

. It's interesting to see their relationship to each other.

[mutantdevle]

Are you sure this is correct? Also, Taly claimed VT/Neighborizer, so.....???

Yeah, it's correct aside from the issue you pointed out.

A tired rambling mutant is not a very attentive mutant.

[mutantdevle]

4. In 2244:

Forgive me if I don't seem too interested in forming reads this day phase because I'm going to attempt to solve this game mechanically rather than through reading into too much of what people post.

Didn't we already try that? It hasn't helped us much so far, that's for sure.

Umm, not really, I don't see how we've actively tried to solve too much mechanically so far. And just because we misinterpreted the words of the mod to think Lalendra was confirmed scum, doesn't mean solving mechanically has failed.

If we're not going to try and solve based on the mechanics of the game, then why have we mass claimed?


Btw Ircher, mechanically, you are town. Not sure if that gives you any faith in solving in such a way.

[mutantdevle]

I don't understand his reads much. Going solely by draft st this point seems dismissive of all the other game information.

I'm not going 'solely by draft', I'm going 'mechanically'. That means taking into account draft numbers, roles, night kill analysis, vote count analysis and any other form of solid/speculative information. This means I won't be focussing on trying to get reads based on what people are saying. I will, however, take into account associations and the things people are saying when reaching conclusions of mechanical theories.

I'm going to be doing a bit of this each day, some of which I will be posting and some of which will remain as thoughts in my head. I hope to produce a

statistically

likely scum team by the end of this day.

[mutantdevle]

Btw, if y'all have any faith in mechanically solving a game, I would like y'all to treat Ircher as essentially confirmed town.

In the 13 games of this that there have been, 8 people have been neighbourisers. ALL of them have been town.

Additionally, 9 other people have attempted to pick neighbouriser. 8/9 of those people were town.

In total, the neighbouriser / fruit vendor slot has appeared in 10/13 games. 24 people overall have attempted to receive this slot (10 got the slot, the other 14 tried to). Out of these 24 people, 23 of them have been town.

That means this slot has a 96% town rate. That puts Ircher as town for me.


The problem with every other neighbouriser claim is that we can't be sure if they lied. I'd argue that Almost's premature claim means it's unlikely to have been a lie, so I guess we could be treating davesaz as 96% town too.

Every other claim aside from that I'm taking with a pinch of salt. I'd expect y'all to see my own claim as a pinch of salt as well, though obviously from my perspective my role pick is irrelevant to my view of my alignment.

[mutantdevle]

Concerning Ircher's ISO post of me:

Spoiler: Replies in blue:

Mutantdevle ISO:

1. In 231:

Unlike Math, I would like to be neighbourised

So far, I've been neighborizing my townreads (who I didn't think were going to be killed), but I think I am going to neighborize either you or Eddie next. Any particular reason you want to be neighborized?#

My reasons for wanting to be neighbourised are no longer applicable given the state of the game, so please ignore my request to be neighbourised. The reason I wanted to be neighbourised though is the same reason I planned to pick neighbouriser regardless of my draft order; my game plan was to use my meta-knowledge of this setup to help PRs decide how to use their night actions. For example, last time I played this game I was able to correctly predict a mafia night kill using my meta and prevent it as the doctor. Sadly, being new to the game I had given away my role so died the same night since they used a vig kill. I figured that I'd be able to have a greater impact by advising multiple PRs than being a main 1 myself. As a neighbour, I wouldn't need to know the identity of each PR, only know that the neighbouriser has contact with such PRs and hence able to pass on my information. If I was to discover my information was not being passed on or was being outguessed, that would help to identify the neighbouriser as scum. Obviously, with everyone's roles being outed, such game plan is redundant.

2. In 240:

Did these 2 games actually happen? If so, I'd appreciate being linked to them.

Remind me, why was this even a question at the time?

3. In 372:

It's unlikely that these games happened but still plausible so I still asked because if they do exist then I don't want to miss out on the data from them.

Regardless if this is truly your thought process, I still think that your post (and this thought process) has zero relevance to the game at hand, but meh.......

It was important to me as it would allow me to collect more data. The more data I have of past games the more confidence I can place in it. For example, the statistic that 100% of the people who have chosen the number 11 in the past have been scum hardly means anything when you take into account the number has only ever been chosen once. On the other hand, I'm confident in declaring your role as town given I have a data set of size 24 backing up a high likelihood you are. The more data I have, the more accurately I can say "the games follow this pattern".

4. In 373:

then top that with night kills,

Okay, I feel like the N2 kill was more or less obvious, so what are your thoughts on the N1 kill on The Worst? Do you think they got lucky in killing a PR, or do you think they found some PR crumb on The Worst?

I'm yet to look too much into NK analysis yet and I'll update you more on that when I get to it. But currently, I'm thinking it was probably luck. I'll look for crumbs later though. If we can determine the reason he was killed, we can determine whether his reads are relevant.

5. In 387:

This is probably a good thing.

(In response to my 346): Elaborate.

My reads are shit. Just straight up bad. Random lynching can be more accurate than them. Hence, if I'm not pushing my reads it's probably a good thing because I'm capable of being persuasive. Last time I played this setup I got the jailkeeper mislynched essentially for not answering one of my questions. I'm probably more useful working on the mechanical side of game solving.

6. In 415:

Add that to how Ircher seems intent on shutting down any form of setup spec and seems to focus too much on other people's reads (in my opinion) and judge them based on that.

I'm just going to ask you something: how can you read a person based on what they say about the setup (aside from glaring inconsistencies and misleading information)? If anything, scum have an advantage (3 to 1) in terms of knowing setup information, and even without that advantage, practically anyone who knows enough about the setup could post information about the setup, regardless of alignment. That is why I read people by their reads, and it is why I focus on people having reads and explaining the thought process behind those reads.

Honestly, I'm not bothered about making people town read me at the moment as long as they aren't trying to lynch me. You can trust what I say about the setup when the scum kill me for it. The longer I'm alive, the more damage I'm going to do to scum. So they must choose whether to kill me and give my words strength or keep me alive at the risk of me figuring them out.

7. In 432:

Cool, so I'm not going to read Ircher's huge post. If there's anything significant someone's just going to quote it anyway.
I'll CTRL+F for associations once we get some flips though.

Anti-town post, but not necessarily scum-motivated.

8. In 468:

I need substance to mutantcase, it's too early for that, + it's midnight for me and I'm going to bed. So maybe later, and later doesn't mean IRL tomorrow. Like it's quite early in the game, this read could drastically change by the end of next week. There's no point in casing something like this when it's heavily subject to change.

I would love if you really explained even one of your reads on the currently alive people (that doesn't boil down to basically being 100% setup speculation, which while that is fine in some cases, it doesn't help me discern your alignment.)

Once I'm done setup specing, I will tie it to actions in game as my 'mutantcase' in order to fully convince people of where I'm coming from. But like I say, I don't care for you discerning my alignment. I'm confident you're town and that's all I need from you.

9. In 563:

The longer I live the more setup spec I'm going to do and, with enough information, I could very well 'solve' the game rather than read it provided I can convince others of my point of view.

How do I determine your alignment then? How can I trust your setup spec if I cannot trust your alignment? You have to scumhunt and make your reads known for me to really be able to read you.

You can trust my words when I flip. If I don't get night killed sometime soon, you probably would have been instead. Ignoring that, you can get a read on me when I start pushing my conclusions.

10. In 564:

My meta and the ability to judge people on things other than their reads.

Name some of those other ways to judge people besides their reads and their meta.

Be specific.

How they react to pressure, their position on a wagon, their associations to others (in more than just a reads way), how they use their night actions, who has what read on them. Of course their own reads and meta play into it. But that's not exclusively the way to read someone.

Though, I don't know why you're asking me, I've never been too good at spotting 'tells'.

11. In 794:

If it's worth anything, I have a gut scum on ausuka that I'm heavily ignoring because there is literally nothing to it.

Maybe you already answered this (today, May 23) and I already forgot, but what exactly is your read on Ausuka again?

Still gut scum, but like I say, not focussing on reads today. I want to focus on setup spec.

12. In 980:

I can't both be vote parking AND pushing an old wagon.

Unless I'm mistaken, you are still voting me at this time... I can't remember any other wagon you pushed, so I'm not sure what you are stating here...

My point is that vote parking and pushing a wagon is 2 very different things. Vote parking is just leaving your vote somewhere without realing doing anything with it. When you're actively pushing the player your on, your vote isn't 'parked', it's active; even if useless. I wasn't pushing you, my vote was just sitting on you. Mainly because I don't tend to move my vote much.

13. In 1068:

There's only ever been 1 game where town has had both the 1 shot vig and the N3 vig...

This is such a crappy thing to rely on.

Yeah, this is kinda a concern actually. What are the chances that scum have the N3 vig and fakeclaimed? In that case, we are in Mylo right now. But if no one has the N3 vig/vengeful slot (cuz Vengeful isn't gonna claim due to autolynch), no lynching would be the wrong move... Any thoughts since you seem to be the remaining expert on the setup?

No lynching is a stupid idea and we're never doing it. It's both possible and evident given the role blocker that scum have lied about their roles, but it's not something we should read too much into as we simply can't tell if they have any unaccounted for roles.

14. In 1211:

Town:
SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis
Town lean:
Iconeum

(Note: portions of this readslist were excluded). Please explain these two reads if they are still relevant.

Niether are presently relevant to me given the nature of how I'm going about today. SIMYK has definitely dropped though.

15. In 2209:

since scum did not get the role cop, I revoke my suspicion of Icon.

I don't see how that makes a difference? It seemed pretty reasonable to assume that Lalendra wasn't lying about their role, and I still think the simplest explanation is Iconeum is scum.

It makes a huge difference as my whole theory regarding scum!Icon specifically required scum to want the role cop slot. With Lalendra being scum, we have less evidence suggesting this is the case.

16. In 2238:

We are in perpetual MYLO

Not strictly true, but if we are lynching today, we need to lynch someone that we think have a 90% chance of flipping scum. We are either in MyLo today or 1 mislynch away from LyLo. I would assume the latter except the fact that scum may gambit with fakeclaiming...

Yeah I noted my mistake in a post later. I still consider us in a form of MYLO though given that no PYP X/Y game has ever made it to day 6 - which is the day we'd reach if we have 1 mislynch and 3 scum lynches.

17. In 2287:

Btw Ircher, mechanically, you are town. Not sure if that gives you any faith in solving in such a way.

I'm just saying we need to factor in reads as well...

Other Notes:
1. With the exception of 240, the first 17 or so posts of the ISO deal almost exclusively with setup spec. That is a bit excessive in my opinion.

Conclusions: To be quite honest, I really think I am leaning towards town here despite the "methodology-related" stuff that I seriously disagree with. Basically, I don't think I want to lynch this slot today.

Addendum @Mutant: What do you think the chances are that a scum vengeful fakeclaimed VT? What do you think the chances are that a scum N3 Vig fakeclaimed VT? What do you think the chances are that a town N3 Vig fakeclaimed VT AND would kill if our lynch today flips town? Do you think it is more likely that we are currently in MyLo (with a N3 vig that fakeclaimed or a vengeful that fakeclaimed) or 1 mislynch away from LyLo? Do you think it is better for us to No Lynch on the off-chance that we are in MyLo or to lynch under the hopes that our target is scum, or at least, we aren't in MyLo?

The probability that scum fake claimed each role is exactly the same as each other. If town has fake claimed VT at all, that's probably a good thing. It screws with my mechanical solving a little bit but that extra kill could mean the difference between winning or losing the game. As I said earlier, we're not no lynching.

[mutantdevle]

2300 will definitely assist me later so thanks for that.

[mutantdevle]

Based on setup spec and meta, I think the worst was simply killed for his position in the draft order. Scum didn't know what role they were hitting, they just wanted rid of a likely PR. By not killing higher in the draft list, they create WIFOM amongst Icon's slot. Scum

wants

us to be suspicious of Icon and part of that influenced their first kill. Besides, knowing they have a RBer to keep Icon's investigations at bay they don't need to kill him.

[mutantdevle]

With Math, we can eliminate a few variables. He was confirmed as his role. Scum obviously didn't kill him because they wanted to eliminate his role since he was functionally a townie from day 2 onwards and scum knew it. Based on setup meta (and common sense), he was clearly killed because the mafia felt threatened by him. Again, we can remove the idea that this threat was in the form of him looking townie, because many of us were paranoid/suspicious of him, the only reason this leaves is that his reads were strong.

So let's see what mathdino's reads were:

Janitor - scum
Eddie - town
mutant - town through trusting Eddie
davesaz - town lean
Ausuka - scum
Icon - scum
Ircher - scum
SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis - town
Taly - town

Read into that as you will, I'll be making conclusions from it later.

[mutantdevle]

that all starts with the assumption iconeum is town

That's the logical conclusion I'm getting given the most probable reason the worst was killed.

[mutantdevle]

Umm, please don't hammer. I have stuff to do.

Doing what I'm doing takes time; we have 9 days so please give it to me. I'm not going to rush my approach to this game because people want to end the day so soon. I'm prioritising real life because I have some deadlines coming up.

Please take any hammer as extremely sus - especially if I'm the night kill. As that will prove mafia want to silence mechanical solving.

[mutantdevle]

This is the first of many prod dodges I will do today and my apathy towards this game will increase as time goes by.

Also I'm totally going to ignore the mechanical solving thing unless it comes to actual solid conclusions which it probably won't.

I plan to come to a solid conclusion, that's why I want the time.

The posts I'm making up until then are just to document my thoughts - both for your benefit but mainly for mine so I can keep track of what I've looked at.

[mutantdevle]

Intent on Janitor.

Again, please don't hammer until I have come to some kind of a conclusion.

I want to have a conclusion out before the night so y'all at least have something to go off of if I'm night killed.

[mutantdevle]

The RB / doc slot occurs in 75% of games.

The doc slot occurs in the {2nd to 5th} range in the draft order whereas the RBer slot occurs in 2 separate brackets of {2nd/3rd} and {7th/8th}. Hence we can conclude the slot is probably in the upper half of the players still alive.

The Janitor fits the {7th/8th} bracket for RBer. SIMYK also fits the lower end of the doc bracket (which, if we consider this bracket to be for the RBer / doc slot in general, we can narrow it down to just a RBer bracket based on how we know this role exists). I'm doubtful SIMYK could be the role blocker.

Mechanical evidence backs up that Janitor IS the RBer. <-- Again, don't lynch yet. But we are never not lynching him today.

[mutantdevle]

The cop / redirector slot occurs in 92% of games.

The cop slot appears in the {1st to 3rd} range but overwhelmingly in the #1 slot. There have been 2 instances where players have gotten cop much further down the draft order but there is no pattern for this position. The redirector has only ever been chosen twice, once in the first position and once in the 13th. Aka, opposite ends of the scale.

Of the 9 cops that have been in this setup, 100% of them have been town. Of the 2 redirectors that have been in this setup, 100% of them have been scum. Townies go cop, scummies go redirector.

We KNOW Icon is the cop thanks to Lalendra's role cop investigation. Remember, she flipped town. She had no reason to lie about her result.

[mutantdevle]

The neighbouriser / fruit vendor slot occurs in 83% of games.

There is no pattern to which position in the draft is more likely to get the neighbouriser slot. This role has never appeared in the same slot twice. Obviously, Ircher is the Neighbouriser. This fits this pattern as the 5th slot has never been a neighbouriser before.

In total, the neighbouriser / fruit vendor slot has appeared in 10/13 games. 24 people overall have attempted to receive this slot (10 got the slot, the other 14 tried to). Out of these 24 people, 23 of them have been town.

That means this slot has a 96% town rate.

[mutantdevle]

I'm not a reads guy but if y'all want some advice on your reads it would be to consider both Icon and Ircher as town because their roles make them mechanically so. There is 0 doubt that either of them could be the roles they claim to be.

[mutantdevle]

could Taly be scum?

Certainly. I plan to investigate everyone properly later but from what I've looked at so far there's nothing to solid confirm them as town.

[mutantdevle]

Ircher was already locktown and Icon is still debateable. A Mafia Cop could definitely exist, 2 people is not a big enough sample size to judge whether mafia could go for that or not.

Then focus on the 9 sample size that says cops are town.

Furthermore, there can't both be a scum cop and a scum role blocker. We have mechanical evidence to confirm the theory that Icon is a town cop being role blocked by a scum role blocker who happens to specifically be Janitor - who can further be incriminated by his shitty play.

If you're scum reading the janitor, especially as the role blocker, then Icon should be town for you.

[mutantdevle]

Well yeah but multiple people have him as locktown I believe.

That has very little impact on what I'm doing.

If I think Taly is mechanically town, then there's no problem.

If I think Taly is mechanically scum, I will push them and attempt to break open people's reads with solid evidence.

If I don't think mechanics can conclusively determine Taly's alignment, then obviously I will default back to reads, suggesting town.

[mutantdevle]

Then focus on the 9 sample size that says cops are town.

Yes, all cops choose town. That much was obvious already. What I'm focusing on is what scum chooses- what Ico!scum would choose. For that we have 2 scum who chose Redirector. I don't see how, from that, we can tell that Ico!scum would choose redirector.

The point of Ico!scum choosing redirector is 100% irrelevant since we KNOW that, regardless of alignment, Icon IS the cop. Why are you choosing to refute me on a point that has no impact on this game?

[mutantdevle]

We know Icon didn't choose redirector, hence we've eliminated the chance that scum!Icon has chosen redirector. Since all townies have made the choice of cop between cop and redirector, this suggests that Icon is also one of those townies who made the same choice.

[mutantdevle]

So you think Icon is scum cop?

[mutantdevle]

Maybe. I definitely disagree he should be considered town for bring a Cop.
Who's scum if not Iconeum?

Janitor - who is likely a role blocker - who is blocking icon - meaning icon is telling the truth about being role blocked by scum - which means Icon is town.

[mutantdevle]

All I've been doing is using the high ratio of cops being town and the general location that the role blocker tends to appear in the draft order as evidence that both Icon is a town cop and Janitor is likely to hold the RBer slot as evidence to this theory. I believe such details are more conclusive that simply reading each individual and trying to decide whether or not we believe their claims.

[mutantdevle]

technically they could be doing a gambit becusse ico would know there is in fact an rb

however

i really sont rhink they're the kinds of players to do that so il accept it

Yeah. Nothing I'm going to ever say will ever be 100% concrete. It literally can't be. There are always other variables such as gambits and the like. But I find things like that as unlikely to occur and hence don't factor them in too much. The fear of scum making gambits is far more than the frequency they ever actually make them. It's rare that scum actually does these kinds of things. But I'd also argue that my method of solving right now is far more accurate than most people's reads; especially my own.

[mutantdevle]

@Eddie and Icon, do you mind unvoting Janitor? I'm fearful of someone hammering.

There's no way that Janitor isn't the lynch today - we don't need votes there at the moment as no pressure is being applied to him and we have more than enough people needed to lynch him.

[mutantdevle]

Ircher was already locktown and Icon is still debateable. A Mafia Cop could definitely exist, 2 people is not a big enough sample size to judge whether mafia could go for that or not.

Then focus on the 9 sample size that says cops are town.

Furthermore, there can't both be a scum cop and a scum role blocker. We have mechanical evidence to confirm the theory that Icon is a town cop being role blocked by a scum role blocker who happens to specifically be Janitor - who can further be incriminated by his shitty play.

If you're scum reading the janitor, especially as the role blocker, then Icon should be town for you.

You realize 9 isn't a large sample size either. The prob. of scum cop seems pretty high to me. Scum!Icon can fakeclaim being roleblocked, and given the setup as it is in this iteration, can do so quite easily regardless of the presence of a mafia roleblocker.

That said, if Janitor does flip roleblocker, I'll reconsider my read on Iconeum.

9 is enough of a sample size for it to be useful. If something happens 9 times in a row, it's fair to assume there's a pattern going on. Of course, this doesn't mean the pattern can't be broken and there

could

be a scum cop. But "The prob. of scum cop seems pretty high" is blatantly wrong. A scum cop is an exception. There is a low chance of a scum cop occurring. The chance a cop is town is

far

greater than the chance a cop is scum. This is especially apparent given the circumstances where there is far more likely to be a role blocker than there is a cop lying about being role blocked.

[mutantdevle]

Then focus on the 9 sample size that says cops are town.

Yes, all cops choose town. That much was obvious already. What I'm focusing on is what scum chooses- what Ico!scum would choose. For that we have 2 scum who chose Redirector. I don't see how, from that, we can tell that Ico!scum would choose redirector.

The point of Ico!scum choosing redirector is 100% irrelevant since we KNOW that, regardless of alignment, Icon IS the cop. Why are you choosing to refute me on a point that has no impact on this game?

Here we have a reversal of a conditional probability, which can generally have surprising results.

Rather than the probability that a Cop is Mafia, Ausuka is looking at the probability that a mafioso picks Cop.
We have 0/9 Cops have been mafia, but we only have 0/2 Mafia choosing the redirector/cop slot being a cop.

Now, given the current stats, the probabilities for both are the SAME; however, we only have a sample size of 2 for the scum choices, so one can't put much faith into that value. Like, I really hope you understand what is being emphasized here, because if you are going to make predictions off of data, you have to do it correctly, and we cannot really afford any mistakes due to incorrect analysis.

Yes... and the point is that I'm not putting too much faith into the 0/2 but instead putting faith into the 0/9 ONTOP of other evidence... eg. the fact that Janitor falls into the likely RBer bracket suggests Icon is telling the truth further indicating he is town.

[mutantdevle]

Saying that town have picked cop 100% of the time they got that pick, and scum picked redirector 100% of the time is nice info but not predictive.
Assuming that a rolecop result of cop -> conf town merely because of the previous games stats is gambler's fallacy.

As scum I would really strongly argue optimal play is to pick Cop. Rolecop is too much of a threat. And the Watcher can catch a lie potentially.

yay random game irrelevant theory talk

how's it goin mutant

I don't really understand why mafia would pick redirector either. It's only 1 shot and it's most effective use would be to trick an investigative but that's hardly going to happen given the possible investigative roles.

I'm also prioritising coursework right now. I have a week to write about 15000 words :/

I game solve here to take a break from that

[mutantdevle]

Someone hammer Janitor. I'm done with this game.

I'm not, please give me time...

[mutantdevle]

VOTE: Janitor

Why'd you vote back? Now I'm paranoid again...

[mutantdevle]

I will drop this though, from what I've looked into so far I'm pretty sure the scum team is Janitor, Saske slot and either Taly OR Ausuka. I will explain this and back up such a claim later during this day (day 3, nor irl) but if you want to discuss that instead of getting bored and complaining about the day not being over then feel free to do so :3

[mutantdevle]

so how long do you need? the person I joined for got repped out so I'm not exactly thrilled

However long it takes really. I've done most of the general stuff, I just need to look into players individually and look at how people's draft numbers relate to each other as well as look at vote counts and other association tells. After that, I will case my findings and propose a scum team before being comfortable with the day ending.

I should finish the programming side of my coursework today - after that, I will put more work into this thread.

I should be done within the next 2-5 days.

[mutantdevle]

mutant, any opinion on puppies?

I like puppies :3

[mutantdevle]

I will drop this though, from what I've looked into so far I'm pretty sure the scum team is Janitor, Saske slot and either Taly OR Ausuka. I will explain this and back up such a claim later during this day (day 3, nor irl) but if you want to discuss that instead of getting bored and complaining about the day not being over then feel free to do so :3

I'll discuss this during the night I guess when I get a chance.

Yeah, interrogate those 2 for me :3

Make 'em slip.

[mutantdevle]

I'm glad we have this replacement so that y'all have something to talk about.

It's midnight and I've just finished the programming side of my coursework (though still testing for bugs). So I'm going to sleep now which means sadly I haven't got anything new done towards this game.

However, I will make progress here before I resume my coursework tomorrow to make up for it.

[mutantdevle]

Various people are doing a wonderful job of tracking claims.
What we're potentially overlooking is the unclaimed roles.
commuter/watcher
n3 vig / venge

I don't think the lack of these roles is too significant. In fact, these 2 slots are the least likely to occur in each game with a 50% and 66% occurrence respectively.

If we do have a member of the town fake claiming n3 vig / venge as VT, then that could definitely be the difference between winning and losing the game. In major contrast, if scum has either of those roles and is fake claiming VT then we have probably lost.

[mutantdevle]

Iconeum 1 - Cop

the worst 3 - Jailkeeper

Lalendra 5 - Role Cop

Ircher 11 - Neighborizer
SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis 413 - VT, Universal Backup/Rolecop

Mathdino 2 - 1-Shot Vigilante

The Janitor 2 - VT, Neighborizer

Beefster/Myloninja 4 - VT, Tracker

Taly 4 - VT, Neighborizer
Almost50/Davesaz 8 - VT, Neighborizer
mutantdevle 8 - VT, Neighbourizer
Ausuka 6 - VT, Neighborizer

Lovebird 6 - VT, Tracker

brassherald/Eddie Cane 6 - VT, Tracker

Quoting this for my own convenience.

[mutantdevle]

what if I'm scum vengeful and I'm secretly plotting to throw lylo and get lynched

Then fuck you and fuck math for making me trust you.

[mutantdevle]

I am a VT whom selected UB/Rolecop so yeah (*•̀ᴗ•́*)و ̑̑

It annoys me so much that they never specified which of these 2 they would have gone for. It annoyingly messes with mechanical solving and it feels intentional. I'd argue that based on my data there is a high chance they were going for UB instead of role cop.

Not only does this paint this slot as more scummy, but I think it also gives more town credit to Icon as well in that it could eliminate the theory that scum tried to get role cop in order to have Icon be a redirector but fake claim cop but then had Icon actually go for cop after they failed to receive the slot. <-- Of course, this alone is poor reasoning for town!Icon, but it still contributes to the mass of mechanical evidence that says Icon is town.

More importantly, however, Saske!Slot isn't looking so good.

[mutantdevle]

Weak stats about Saske!Slot:

People who choose numbers over 20 (aka numbers unlikely to be duplicates) are scum 40% of the time - kinda weak
If scum are going to kill the slot, there's a 50% chance they'd have done it by now - very weak
Since we can eliminate scum killing the slot for its role, we can conclude that scum would kill the slot for being town read too much. - kinda weak.
This draft position is the most likely to be a backup and falls within the bracket that contains the most backups. - not too weak.
This draft position also fits the doctor / RB bracket - very weak.
The UB / rolecop slot has a 67% town rate.


These are just notes I might reference later but what we can conclude now is that this slot is highly unlikely to be night killed (though we kinda knew that anyway).

[mutantdevle]

Weak stats about Taly:

The draft number 4 has a 93% town rate - strong.
If scum are going to kill Taly, they'd definitely have done it by now - extremely weak.
If scum killed Taly, there'd be no clear reason as to why they did so - very weak.
The only roles this position has ever received are backup and neighbouriser.
This draft position tends to try and receive backup/role cop - very weak.


Draft number alone would suggest town. A lot of town reads on this player would also suggest town. However, I'd have to see how this factors into everything else.

[mutantdevle]

Weak stats about Ausuka:

The draft number 6 has a 75% town rate - not too weak.
If scum are going to Ausuka then it will probably be tonight. - very weak.
If Ausuka was killed it would probably be because he was seen as a threat - kinda weak.
If someone is scum fake claiming VT but is actually N3 vig / vengeful, this slot is it - extremely weak.
This draft position tends to try and get the N3 vig/vengeful and neighbour/fruit vendor slots. - very weak.


This doesn't really tell us much tbh.

[mutantdevle]

Weak stats about Eddie Cane:

The draft number 6 has a 75% town rate - not too weak.
If scum are going to kill the slot, there's a 50% chance they'd have done it by now - very weak
If Ausuka was killed it would probably be because he was seen as a threat - kinda weak.
This draft position is the most likely to be watcher. - very weak.
The JK / Tracker slot has a 76% town rate.
The tracker slot has 92% town rate.


Tracker claim would suggest town but I'm mainly sheeping mathdino in my read of this slot as town.

[mutantdevle]

EBWOP: Replace Ausuka with Eddie in the 3rd stat.


Weak stats about Almost50/davesaz slot:

The draft number 8 has a 70% town rate - not too weak.
If scum are going to kill davesaz it will probably be tonight. - very weak.
If davesaz was killed it would probably be because he was seen as a threat - kinda weak.
This draft position has only ever received 1 role which was the neighbouriser. It's the least likely slot to get a role according to meta.

[mutantdevle]

Okay so here's where I'm at:

I'm more comfortable calling davesaz town now. First of all, they claimed the try and get neighbouriser. I have

no doubt

that they (Almost50) genuinely did try to get this role. Because of this, I'm also applying the 96% town rate of people trying to get this slot that makes me town read Ircher to davesaz. Everyone else who claimed to try and get neighbouriser we cannot be sure aren't lying. Furthermore, Mathdino town read this slot and I'm under the impression that Math was killed because of his reads. Additionally, I also town read A50's attitude. I've seen him do a similar thing before as town and we know his attitude was genuine since he replaced out.

Out of Taly and Ausuka, I'm more comfortable saying Taly is the town and Ausuka is the scum. Whilst the mechanical evidence I've looked at so far is not conclusive for either of them, I feel Taly has more townie evidence. So right now I'm saying scum is probably {Janitor, Katyusha and Ausuka}. This gives us scum numbers of 2, 6 and 413.

However, I fear Eddie may be deep wolfing. So if someone I strongly town read can

really

look into them and their predecessor then I will be grateful.


None of this is locked in though, I still want to look into vote counts and then look at association tells as well as double check something about Taly / Ausuka.