Mini 2136 | City That Never Sleeps [Game over!]

[Auro]

Hard claim Masons with GuiltyLion.

Will follow an experimental playstyle this game, probably modelled some combination of Not_Mafia's and Boonskies' play.
(I want to be the hammerer for every wagon this game )

RVS is for losers

[Auro]

I am excited to treat this game as an exercise in pedantry, sophistry, and massive wall-posting. I promise you townsfolk that I'll have one moderately large wallpost full of mafia theory and some information about the game in lieu of analyis.

[Auro]

What's the fun in that?

[Auro]

VOTE: Nomnomnom

[Auro]

RVS Doesn't Mean You're Supposed to be Random

Okay...how do I say this without coming across more pompous than usual...I...I think that a vast majority of players of Mafia are fething lackwits who don't know what they're supposed to do at game start.

Yeah, that about sums it up. Sadly.

Look, the term RVS does stand for 'Random Voting Stage'. Yes, I get that. I understand. However, the reason it was called that was because to outsiders/newbies back in the day seeing it for the first time it *appeared* random. It was anything but. Really, what it should be called is LIVS, 'low information voting stage'. You don't have a lot of info available, and, yeah, maybe your first vote reasons are indeed because you hate someone's avatar. but you're (theoretically) placing that vote to see reactions to it. Who else votes that player? Who avoids voting them? Who tries to build a wagon? Who avoids this? How does the player react to your vote? Who do they vote? All of that, ALL OF IT, is information, info for the town to assess both Day 1 and later in the game.

What RVS is *not* is a stage where you're supposed to dork around doing nothing for whatever arbitrary amount of pages you think are supposed to be the "fun" pages. That's called pre and post game. Once voting starts the game has started. You're allowed (and I suppose, encouraged) to have fun. I usually do myself. But I *don't* support having fun to the detriment of scumhunting, because that is stupid.

Your vote isn't random. You have placed it for a reason and so has everyone else.

The more you try to make it random the more you are helping scum, because scum like low information voting, because it helps them. Which day do scum have the most ability to mislynch town? Day 1 - due to lack of info.

Therefore, the only sane thing, the only pro-town thing, the only good play thing to do - IS TO PREVENT THE LOW INFORMATION STAGE FROM LASTING ANY LONGER THAN IT HAS TO.

Or...I guess you can have "fun" and joke, and fight any wagons simply because you apparently don't know how to use PMs or a General thread, or a signup thread, or post game to interact with players you like.

RVS isn't random.

Get over your silly selves.

[Auro]

I do think failing to pick up on obvious jokes can reflect cognitive load, and scum generally has greater cognitive load than town

VOTE: Something_Smart

[Auro]

Auro, I'd like a response please

.

Subject: Mini Normal 2080 ft. My Cats [Game Over]

I'm honestly still scared about going to the 1v1 I'll be honest.

---

I don’t know how you expect me to respond to this?

[Auro]

they were clearly paying enough attention to the game to know they could grab the pagetop so why not post something relevant to that first page?

I'm leaning town

[Auro]

karnage

[Auro]

Was planning to drop the gimmick on page 5, but conveying thoughts this way is hard and I already have thoughts~ prolly should reserve this for the next bastard game I sign up for!

Nom one's subtle, after my other game with her just ended I just found it ever so slightly weird that she voted Molla after I made a few joke posts and Molla reacted to them: She correctly scumread me there, but I felt she might have been a little afraid of pushing me. I voted her to test that, and her lack of pushback is interesting.

The lilith head I think asked someone about an obvious joke, and the quote I posted is a general rule of thumb. It was interesting that they expected me to respond properly when I was gimmicking: prodding me and trying to get me to engage is something I ~kinda~ see as a convenient spot for scum to sit on.

I have noted a probably extremely weak meta-tell from Skitter that I won't out, that makes me put her at a leantown already.

Karnage's reasoning feels genuine.

[Auro]

@ nom why'd you change your vote from bbmolla to me at that juncture?

scummy opening from what I know about your meta
my vote would be somewhere else right now but seriously if you're town with me this game should honestly go pretty fast, you're high sort priority

This reverses my previous stance on Nom.

[Auro]

Something_Smart, have you not considered that there is a mechanical reason to want to be on the wagon as town?
To take up a slot that scum could have taken; thus forcing them to stay off of it?

[Auro]

tbf i didn't realize the extent of the gimmick until i think after that post happened

Note that although that specific gimmick was developed (poorly ) later on, my earlier posts were pretty much shitposts, and they had the same reaction to Eve.

[Auro]

Was this question meant for me? SS hasn’t talked about the post we are discussing afaik

I guessed you guys probably had a pre-game chat about mechanics and strategy - is that incorrect?

[Auro]

this is kidna why i didn't like allo's first post ... it felt like they took eve's post rather too seriously, when i thought it was fairly obvious it was a joke/meme

I very vaguely recall playing a game or two with Allomancer and did feel it was expected from him, but I have to check.

[Auro]

@Smarter: The expectation that I would explain properly, I meant, when I had just posted a naked vote on you pasting some quote.
@The Mechanics part: That's interesting timing on both your responses there (apologies, I know it's a minor thing), but okay

[Auro]

Do you generally not discuss play strategy with other heads at least after receiving a town role PM, Smart?

[Auro]

Oh. Nevermind that. Yeah, I'm happy with the Smart hydra town
They're independently answering questions pretty fast.

[Auro]

GuiltyLion, what's the difference between "I like his posts" and "gut early townread"? Paranoia is a word I see thrown more as the game progresses, instead of right at the start.

We have only two games where I was scum against you, no? One of them you caught me (marathon tho) and the other I recall just killing you N1 before you had a chance to.

[Auro]

so like i have no idea why you'd want to be doing that as town
but like i can see some benefits to doing that as scum

A simple skim of a couple of Eve's previous games would probably have made things a little clearer for you.

Should I be surprised that you didn't just do that when Eve was being weirdly flippant, etc?

[Auro]

You're kinda deflecting there, Skitter

You were putting in energy to try and sort/engage with Eve, when was arguably easier to just go take a five-minute look. So you're saying you could have, but you just felt lazy then also?

[Auro]

ehhh you know it's not a huge difference I guess, and I wasn't saying that because I'm scared of scum!you in particular, it's more just I felt I had town!pings from those slots bc they were doing things that I didn't find natural to fake as scum, whereas with your posts I was finding myself more agreeing with them than thinking "oh yeah scum isn't likely to post this".

It's not a major thing and if you pushed me further on it I dunno if I'd be able to convincingly show exactly why the read felt different, was mostly operating off of my first gut impression reading through.

Yes, it's not not a huge difference functionally - that's why I found that interesting. Even after your explanation that you're not really scared of scum!me I find the usage of the word "paranoia" a little weird coming from town, to be honest.

Can you point to anything Skitter did that you find unnatural to fake as scum?

I'll let the acryon thing play out a little more. I find the name slightly disturbing as a misspelling of crayon.

{Nom, Smart and Smarter, Karnage} --> I think all three of these should be on the wagon right now.
{Skitter, GuiltyLion} --> Should not participate in the final lynch.

[Auro]

I think calling what I'm doing "scumhunting" at all would be an overstatement. I'm just asking some friendly questions. My scumhunting is a bit rusty, but we'll get there.

I like keeping my vote on you though frankly.

@GuiltyLion: Is it implied anywhere in his posts that he found you a good vote because you pushed him on it? The quoted part does not imply that, for me. Perhaps I missed it.
Do you think he should have unvoted you because he acknowledged your attack had some merit to it?

[Auro]

I was weakly townreading her for similar reasons - but it's because Nomnomnom scumreads her, and Skitter has a reputation for being hard to read.
If Nom townreads Skitter / wants Skitter to be on the wagon, I would be fine with it too.

[Auro]

Off-topic: GuiltyLion, may I clean up the white space in your avatar and make it transparent, and post a link here?

[Auro]

https://imgur.com/Mk18GSE
Pretty hard around the borders haha

I'll respond to the actual stuff in a bit.

[Auro]

I don't think that'll look good because of the borders being icky

[Auro]

I‘m leaning towards town!GL. GL seems to be transparent in his thought process and reasoning

Subject: Newbie 1995 Mafia PT

okay so I've played with Karnage / George before. George is somewhat mislynchable IIRC, Karnage I think I've only seen his scumgame but he seems competent, we might have to plan on NKing him

generally I don't like to bus - people will WIFOM their way out of a lot of associatives as long as you are actually engaging with your partner to some degree - and my goal is to make sure all my pushes sound reasonable/genuine. It works pretty well in newbie games cause newbies often fall for the logical = townie fallacy and there are usually enough lurksacks / people-playing-weird to burn through the first couple mislynches. but lemme know what your experience is, what you feel comfortable with, etc

I just wanted to add this here, sorry for the shade, GuiltyLion

[Auro]

Auro, can you explain what about this made you reverse your previous stance and townread nom?

Sure. My original read was predicated on that Nom didn't want to get into a 1v1 with me. (I use this in a loose sense, not a tunnel, but simply avoiding my push)
But in that post she comes off as totally unafraid of Skitter and saying "game should honestly go pretty fast" is something I definitely cannot imagine scum!Nom saying to Skitter.

[Auro]

What are people’s thoughts on Auro? I just reread his ISO and there’s less content there than I remember. I like his most recent content a bit more as it seems he’s developing a line of questioning towards GL that (I think?) is trying to understand GL’s thought process, but a lot of his ISO consists of fixating on GL’s usage of the word “paranoid” and questioning us on mechanics.

Have you not noticed me forming a townbloc already, consisting of you, Karnage and Nomnomnom?
I believe I've also listed reasons for townreading them - if you disagree on any at any point of time, let me know.

[Auro]

Yeah, I originally had good feelings about the townbloc, but then I reread your ISO this morning and I'm not as solid in my read on you as I was when you initially townblocced (sp?). So I'm just trying to get a feel for everyone's reads and see where they're at.

Sure, that's fair. But you do agree on my current proposed townbloc, right?

[Auro]

The townbloc isn't locked, subject to change.

[Auro]

I'm not reading too much into it, I think it's obviously a joke

Smart said he doesn't understand jokes sometimes, and his partner got pinged from that post.

[Auro]

Yes, and he was happy keeping the vote; why is that scummy?

[Auro]

here I tried to fix up Auro's version a bit, not sure what you want done with those whiskers.

<3

Sorry, heavy deadlines. Give me a couple days.

[Auro]

i don't have a solid read yet. auro seems to think he's good at reading her, which is why i'd like to hear a bit more about why he's townreading her

I don't think that.
I've already listed reasoning for why I townread her, no? Do you want me to explain that a bit more?

[Auro]

he directly responded to me pushing him and then said he liked keeping his vote there, I didn't think it's a stretch to assume those things are related. If he has other reasons for voting me then those are absent from his post.

Your other question feels a bit leading - generally I don't like it when anybody is voting me, as a rule. If he himself can see that his post didn't look like

scumhunting then he needs to give more explanation as to whether and/or why he finds me suspicious

for calling that out.

I think it is a bit of a stretch, yeah. We're not talking about a direct action here, rather the lack of action (i.e. unvoting you).
What prevented you from just directly asking him why he likes keeping his vote?
You attacked him over it saying you didn't like his response, and that he

should've

explained, but you didn't engage about it with him yourself.

did you actually read the game in addition to the mafia PT? What do you think of my play here so far compared to that Newbie game?

No, I just loosely skimmed the Mafia PT for the lulz.
I think trying to do a serious meta read for you would be a waste of my efforts, given my perception of your skill at copying meta.
However, there does seem to be a difference in aggression between your push on Crayon (a "weird" slot) (and perhaps add Allomancer here too) and lack of it less weird ones. There's engagement, but more on the passive side.
Would that be something I find if I were to do a meta study on you?

When are we gonna do a Calvin & Hobbes hydra?

[Auro]

I understand why you'd get that impression, but I would disagree that I'm "doing and saying nothing".
I have taken strong stances on multiple slots already.
I am actively scumhunting GuiltyLion's slot, inviting questions directed to me, and making sure that people in my proposed townblocc townread each other.

I have a work deadline in a day and I can't devote the kind of mental energy I usually do to towngames at the moment.
My last 14 posts were in just one day, that is not a very long time, pal.

However, I am also experimenting with some playstyle changes and that also contributes a little to my passiveness; I do not see it as a problem in terms of play.

[Auro]

Do you think the top-down approach of forming a stable consensus townbloc is a bad strategy?
Generally, and in the context of this game?

Yes, I'm scumhunting without aggression; but the questions I pose and my stances re: GL still apply, and my own read doesn't change.
I want to scumhunt people without pointing a pitchfork on them, yes.
If you can prove to me that that is less effective than being completely serious and tonally aggressive, feel free to go ahead.

You are misunderstanding what I wrote about meta, perhaps read that a little more critically? Because meta/non-meta was definitely not the primary point in my post.
If you're not able to understand it after a reread, do ask

You are exactly right that I am posting and doing

some

amount of digging; that is the result of my not being able to devote much mental energy to this game, note that I didn't say I don't have

time

.

[Auro]

I think Crayon can enter the townbloc; note that he is attacking me after I basically began to chainsaw-attacked GuiltyLion over GL's push on him.
It's simply bad strategy to try to launch an attack on someone who's been pseudo-defending them, and this points to Crayon being town (apart from his posts themselves).

[Auro]

{1/0, Nomnomnom, Karnage, Crayon} two more slots to go

Oh, and: Crayon, suppose I am scum, with the devious plan of forming a "townbloc" that lets me slip by.
I have never advocated for being on it myself, for starters. So, at the very least, I must be shoving my buddy in there (otherwise there's a 2/5 chance of a guilty which is just bad strategy).

Who do you think it could be? Or is it that I'm yet to add them?

[Auro]

Yes

Yes it does.

Focusing on looking for and finding town will far more often create gamestate that are healthier for solving and/or that scum will need to stretch to counter.

Bias is more prevalent and likely to result in a stubborn incorrect read on scumreads on top of that.

[Auro]

FWIW I never thought the townbloc was a devious plan as much as it felt like fluff.

I'm completely serious about the townbloc: I will try my best to make sure everyone in my townbloc townread each other, form a consensus scumread, and vote there.

[Auro]

{1/0, Nomnomnom, Karnage, Crayon}

two more slots

to go

Oh, and: Crayon, suppose I am scum, with the devious plan of forming a "townbloc" that lets me slip by.

I have never advocated for being on it myself

, for starters. So, at the very least, I must be shoving my buddy in there (otherwise there's a 2/5 chance of a guilty which is just bad strategy).

Who do you think it could be? Or is it that I'm yet to add them?

If the townbloc wills it, sure, I will join the wagon. Otherwise, nah

There are edge cases here, but I'll not say what they are for ~reasons~.

[Auro]

This is silly. There's no guarantee that you can't change your reads, or that people will listen to them, and 2/5 chance of a guilty isn't so high that it makes no sense to run the risk as scum.

And I haven't said it makes me town, either, have I?
And no, 2/5 is definitely a high enough risk for 2/11 scum.

[Auro]

Not just that: It's a risk with no payoff, since there's no direct reason they become part of a voting bloc the next day.

[Auro]

You said it makes you not scum with anyone out of your townblock. That's the claim that I don't accept.

And one scum getting guiltied is not the end of the world for scum, especially because any scum offwagon that isn't guiltied will look better because they were off the wagon and opened themself up to potentially getting guiltied.

What? Where did I say that? I was simply asking Crayon for his thoughts on it. In the same line, I offered the possibility that I haven't added them yet. And "shoving my buddy in there" would be a function of the final townblocc I achieve, not the current townblocc as it is. And sure, I could change my reads, but that would require me to form a trajectory off my strong townreads.

They'll look -slightly- better, but that's only if they don't fight the townbloc, and sure - I invite scum to take the 2/5 risk of doing that then.

Do you think I would be expecting town points from you, Skitter, Nomnomnom and GuiltyLion by saying "Sure yeah I can stay off wagon"? Do you think I think that has any payoff for me?

[Auro]

Hell, actually, good thought.

Skitter/GuiltyLion, are you both individually fine with being offwagon? I absolutely am.

[Auro]

Townbloc: {1/0, Karnage, Nomnomnom, Crayon, _____, _____}
Copbloc: {Skitter, GuiltyLion, BBMolla, Auro, _____}

To fill the blanks: {Allomancer, Rex, Eve}

[Auro]

VOTE: Eve

[Auro]

Feel free to not give me any town points for staying off wagon then

[Auro]

Is there a point to this conversation, Smartypants?

[Auro]

@GuiltyLion:
1. Why evade the part where I ask you about your lack of questioning Crayon for his "unexplained" keeping of vote?
2. Has anyone ever identified you as an easy read?
3. Do you not think the contexts between the Newbie game (easy to coast in) and here (hesitancy in awarding townreads, pressure towards your slot, lot of non-"newbie" players) are different enough that a comparison in involvement is worth basing a read off of?

[Auro]

...yeah? We're discussing whether staying off the wagon is towny.

Yes, but the 2/5 thing was part of your invalidating part of my perceived implication that I am town because I could form an all-town townbloc as scum.

[Auro]

1. Do you recall any previous instance of directly scumreading someone when there's -a lack of explanation- instead of asking for one?

3. It's a mindset thing. I disagree that you would play the coasting scumgame you did in that Newbie here for a variety of reasons, lol. Unless you're saying this level of involvement is outside your scum "range" entirely, this would be a fruitless comparison. plus, here I am engaging you myself. But fine: I'll hold off on my push, and see how your involvement shapes up.

It's obviously a cost benefit regarding the evidence. Here the difference in contexts muddles reliability, of course I'd expect scum!you here to behave much differently from there anyway.

[Auro]

Auro why are you volunteering to be off the wagon when you know you're town?

So you guys can know I'm town.
I think personally I'm a difficult read.

[Auro]

In my experience, that is his style. I like it
Reminds me of Volxen.

[Auro]

I’ll need to reread more closely to see how Auro reacted to the Allomancer wagon but that’s for later.

I offered no stance on Allomancer, and he went on my "idk" list.
I didn't even read his posts, really

Simple reasoning for Eve vote: I can't sort her playstyle as I don't find it very transparent, and since I don't find her pro-town either, she's a perfectly good lynch.

Allo can go to the copbloc, as he should be much more easily sortable.

[Auro]

Whilst I feel that TheLimitDoesNotExist is clearly mafia

Really? You don't think they could be reading things wrongly, Rex?
You're 100% sure they're being disingenuous and not that there's a miscommunication somewhere?

[Auro]

Sausage I don't mean to say this in a mean way but your posts are the definition of "dry"

Rex I mean to say this honestly and I love it :3

[Auro]

Now that I have finished a push on TheLimitDoesNotExist, allow me to continue

I love this, too xD

[Auro]

You mind being in the cop bloc with me and the other cool kidz?

[Auro]

Yo Smart/Smarter wanna talk to me about anything that doesn't require me to read posts?

Pedit: Rex. Crayon's already in it.

[Auro]

But if Rex is in the Cop bloc, Allo would have to be in the town bloc (assuming I get my Eve lynch). You guys have to decide, but first I want to affirm if both Allo and Rex volunteer independently.

[Auro]

Not really, nothing stronk.

[Auro]

What's the significance to your avatar?

[Auro]

Rex, I can guarantee you 100% that the slot you're pushing is town.
Enable HH:mm::ss (optional) in account settings; then observe the timestamps of posts of both heads.

You will find that they are posting independently, and I struggle to imagine how they could possibly be coordinating that.

Then, go ahead and read a Something_Smart scum PT. You will find that he plans out a lot of things. Perhaps the Crown of Misery one, where he was scum alongside me.

Then, ask yourself if he would suddenly abandon a pattern of careful posting and planning and pursue a strategy where he and his partner freely, independently post strong stances.

Then, you tell me if you still think they're scum.

:3

[Auro]

Yup, that's why you got to town very fast.

[Auro]

What information would a townflip on Allo give you?

[Auro]

I'd like to hear your thoughts nonetheless, from the discussion itself.

[Auro]

Allo has still not generated pro-town content ever since he was pushed and only threw shade at Eve. This is still the best lynch today.

If you're lynching Allo, I would advocate for Rex to be in the townbloc, and Eve in Cop. Agree?

[Auro]

Eve!

[Auro]

Skitter should never be a D1 lynch especially with a cop in the game.

[Auro]

What? No, I think the Traffic Analyst should literally roll a die to decide who to cop.

[Auro]

I already considered that, but that would also ensure the inno'd person gets NK'd. I don't want Skitter/GL to be NK'd like that.

[Auro]

Note that that's also easier to manipulate for scum. The value of a guilty is >> an inno who gets night killed.

Random die in cop bloc is harder to evade.

[Auro]

Ok so if its at least semi-random, why does a town cop preclude a skitter lynch?

She's hard to read and also very competent as town - even without a cop in the game I'd not want to lynch her on D1 unless I had very strong and reliable reasons to suspect it. The existence of a cop strengthens my desire not to lynch to some extent

[Auro]

I don't wanna lynch Eve right now, this is mislynch bait.

How do you classify "scummy scum" vs "mislynch bait"?
There's only one other partner and they may not necessarily vocally be diverting away from the lynch at this stage.

[Auro]

In my experience if scum takes an irrational persona it's a conscious choice in how to approach the game and how to fool the playerlist, and I sincerely don't think that Eve is that kind of player

This is the primary point in your ISO, and I disagree.

I think a skim of her town meta will show that this is her playstyle.

I've not seen many players post in such a manner as town and then subvert it when they roll scum - isn't it expected they'll carry that style?

[Auro]

Why am I town?

[Auro]

I am definitely driven by an agenda.

[Auro]

i'm not following, why does posting independently indicate that they're townie here?
are you arguing that ss would be trying to coordinate their thoughts / minimize dissonance as scum here because he likes to plan things, and that if he were scum he would not be ok with Lilith posting so freely ? otherwise i'm not sure i'm understanding what you're trying to say

I'm saying exactly this. I noticed when I was questioning them on strategy talk. Both Smart and Smarter were online, responded giving the true answer independently at the same time; that's one instance I'd definitely think they would think to talk to each other about first if scum.

They have consistently kept that up.

[Auro]

re:Auro - like I mentioned the other day, he's been kinda overfixated on me, and I'm also skeptical of how he seems totally uninterested in pressuring/voting Allomancer.

I don't like his Eve push.

I can imagine these behaviors serving a scum-agenda so he's not in my towncore, but it's also not really enough to make me want to push him and I do think he'd be a big asset if town and we're just on different wavelengths this game.

Bolded is of interest.
I've skimmed your ISO and I don't find any reasons for Eve to be in your prob-town tier, can you explain that?
What about my Eve push don't you like?

I'm hoping you have something more than a gamestate/pre-flip ("She voted Allo so prob-town!") argument to justify that townread

[Auro]

Further, you've spent what feels like a loooottt of energy engaging with what you consider 'hard to read/sort' slots that could be useful as town, but then basically say you're fine with Eve being lynched since you think she isn't useful. It's like

instead of solving the question of who is town and who is scum, you're more interested in solving the question of 'who can benefit town if town'

vs who can't regardless of alignment, and I think that's a bad way to form reads and an easy way to lead to mislynches.

Rex, I can guarantee you 100% that the slot you're pushing is town.

I think Crayon can enter the townbloc; note that he is attacking me after I basically began to chainsaw-attacked GuiltyLion over GL's push on him.

saying "game should honestly go pretty fast" is something I definitely cannot imagine scum!Nom saying to Skitter.

Karnage's reasoning feels genuine.

The bolded red part makes a lot of sense if you only look at what I said about Skitter not being a D1 lynch, in isolation. But then you must have noticed I was throwing townreads and strengthening them on multiple slots, and actually stated that that was the strategy I was going for this game in 315 . So either now you have to argue that the top-down way of forming reads is a bad way to form reads especially in a setup where getting the right townbloc can screw scum over, or this attack is empty air.

---

I also liked the push on you/BBMolla for focusing on clearing yourself/other slots more than potentially guilting a scum.

Again, makes a lot of sense if you look at Molla's 360 in isolation where he offers a reason for me being fine being in the cop bloc... and ignoring literally every other post in his ISO where he's scumhunting.
Prove it. Prove that Molla is excessively focusing on clearing himself.

---

Dismiss the Allo vote all you want but IMO identifying the same things I saw as potentially scum-indicative is a sign of town mindset

Allo said that there existing a mech reason to be in the wagon alleviates some initial concerns he had from her, but she seems to be just shitposting, and he needs to see more content.
Eve's reasoning was that Allo should have "obviously" read her RVS post as a shitpost when he recognized that other posts of hers are shitposts, and thus shouldn't even have pushed her for it.
Your ISO does not show you finding this scum-indicative: so do you? You think it's a valid attack?
One instance of identifying something as scum-indicative in common with you is enough to get them into prob-town territory, is it?

---

If you could re-summarize the case on Allomancer, I would appreciate it. I think many of the things you find scummy in his posts are not ones I do; and I am in part vaguely informed by past experience with Allo.
Since you like having all evidence, I would suggest you read other towngames of his.
Overall, I am OK with whoever is lynched as long as the townbloc has consensus on it; but at this point I strongly advocate Eve to be in the cop-bloc if not the lynch.

---

I think Skitter is town. However, not even close to how much I would have to promote her to the townbloc.
She agrees with you about Eve being mislynch bait. Do you not see town equity from that, as similar mindsets about things seems to be a strong +town indicator for you?
Skitter didn't respond to my case for 1/0. I see that as a sign of acceptance. What should I be reading into? If scum trying to legitimately push 1/0 she'd probably respond to that.
Her other attacks on Smart regarding his shading of my proposed strategy are legitimate, to my eyes.

---

[Auro]

Auro, you didn't mention Skitter's push on us regarding the Sausasaurus rex post at all. What were your thoughts on that?

Haven't really read them in much detail , but from what I remember those attacks seemed to be "you're calling Rex disingenuous but you were not making a honest attempt at understanding him as well". I don't think Smarter's engagement with Rex was

disingenuous

, but I can see how Skitter sees it could be. I think that angle of her push is legitimate too.

[Auro]

I don't care much for the choice of terms themselves, but I feel like my strategy is very pro-town, while some of your counter-proposals such as leashing the cop felt worse to me.

[Auro]

lol it's been a lot even for me haha

tbh I was tempted to whine a lil bit about continuing to litigate all these point

I'm enjoying it! I also don't see town GL from our engagement, rather the opposite... apologies if you're town and I'm just annoying you while also managing to misread you, lol. I'll get there if you are town.

[Auro]

Even then, do you consider it a bad thing to propose another alternative that can be discussed? I never claimed that my idea was absolutely the best one.

I mean, Smart also called my saying it's dumb for scum to agree to both be in the cop bloc giving a 40% chance of guilty "silly" in 319. But even then, I think continuously proposing alternatives that sort of are "against" the umbrella strategy I'm proposing that Skitter feels is pro-town would be slightly iffy. If I wasn't townreading your slot this strongly, I was going to ask if you propose optimal strategies as scum also

I don't consider it necessarily a

bad

thing myself, but I think Skitter pushing this is fine.

Re: 514 and GuiltyLion's wall, can't read and respond right now, I think I can after one hour or three. Patience, my dear friend. It has been acknowledged.

[Auro]

For the record, while I don't think leashing the cop is necessarily best, I have heard only qualitative arguments against it. Leashing the cop has the quantitative benefit that it can allow for mechanically confirmed innocents without causing the traffic analyst to immediately get killed. There's no corresponding benefit to not leashing the cop, and flexibility, while it might be important, certainly can't be said to be measurably better.

In other words I think you guys should consider it a little more deeply than you have been, if only because discussion is good and this is a thing you guys seem interested in discussing.

Easy answer, as I said: dayplay
Scum don't even need to manipulate the gamestate much for town to end up leashing townslots which just inform the NK anyway.
I don't want such a gamestate. My current strategy doesn't leave many options for them especially if I am right.

I'll detail more on my thoughts afterwards.

[Auro]

The TA has to play cleverly. I think even if they get a guilty, they don't out it immediately but just crumb it. But thoughts on these are a little unformed, this is also something to discuss.
Btw, there are chances we end up leashing the TA to themselves, so giving them a pool instead insures against that slightly.

[Auro]

I don't think a strong scum player would care that much for leashing onto another strong scum player, because paranoia will only increase as the game goes on. If I was scum I wouldn't really be scared of Skitter/GL/Nomnomnom as much; leashing onto slots would be easy enough if I can coach my partner to townspew and avoid being scumspected. That is a much more predictable and manipulable than the die roll in cop-bloc, I would have to make a much larger effort to get myself (or at least my buddy) out of it.

[Auro]

As in I would be more confident in my dayplay abilities while minimizing the impact of a general town strategy on me; and thus expect you or Skitter to think the same.

I'm never really "scared" as scum anyway lol, the prospect of successfully manipulating y'all would be exciting

[Auro]

I do think it's fair to point out that you are honing in on townreads and I have largely agreed with the townbloc you're forming which is why I can sometimes feel you may be town here. I think where I'm concerned is of the remaining pool outside the townbloc, we can't seem to see eye to eye on who is pro/anti town and who makes for a good wagon. I don't really grok at all why you don't see Allo as worthy of suspicion other than previous experience with his town meta, and I'm picking up townvibes from Eve that I'm confused you're not seeing.

I don't think I'm -as concerned- as you with certain reads or takes because I think 11-2 feels townsided here and naturally a couple of flips will help in sorting the hard-to-read slots, but I'm wary that you feel so insistent on pressuring me at every turn and I don't always understand how it's helping you potentially see me as town.

I actually don't really care much about {Allo,Eve} etc and I won't be influencing the game towards either one very strongly. Ultimately, as I said, as long as my townbloc has consensus, it's okay.
Worthy of suspicion is one thing, but I don't see the things you guys suspect him for as being AI.
What I do see is that Allomancer

is

taking stances and is attempting to be transparent and to a certain degree, verbose about them.
I do not see Eve doing that. You see townvibes from her having a similar mindset - it should be clearer why I wouldn't be since I don't carry your mindset in the first place, no?

I'm not saying Molla is excessively focused on clearing himself, I said rather that I liked Eve pressuring him on that particular line cause I thought it could be an odd take from town. I have liked some of Molla's other angles and while he's not clear town to me he's not also someone I'm itching to push at the moment. This feels like you're putting a stronger argument into my mouth that I never made, especially since I had just also stated that I don't think Allo/Molla as a team makes sense.

Well, you used the phrasing "push on Auro/Molla for clearing yourself" etc. Molla simply made a comment "so he can be checked?" which is completely fine. Even at a lesser level of strength, lumping Molla with me in that sentence doesn't make sense. Eve's attack was because she saw him as "defending Auro" by answering that question, which is also poor. And I don't really care that much for your team/non-team solves? My attack on you doesn't require the implication that you scumread Molla necessarily. Besides, do answer:

what is odd in Molla's take that I am fine being copped because I can become confirmed town

?

I'm not really following your interpretation here. I thought Eve's reasoning was referring to only the particular claimpost, not the RVS post? Unless you are referring to that claimpost as the RVS post?

My general understanding of Eve's point was - and I'm definitely adding some of my own interpretation here - Allo acknowledges that she may have reason to want to be on wagons as town, but also acknowledges that she was shitposting, which means he shouldn't really read into it either way, whereas in reality he was actually trying to read into it both ways. I'm not seeing what you're seeing where it refers to a sum of multiple posts.

And yeah, I kinda have light standards for prob-town at this stage because it's D1 and because objectively the vast majority of players are town. I find I have best read results when I search for the lines of reasoning that stand out as evidently absent of most reasonable interpretations for towniness, and use those to influence the confidence in my scumreads, and try to give players the benefit of the doubt as much as possible.

By RVS post I mean the one where she says she has a mechanical reason to be on the wagon, on page 1.
The first "shitpost" does look like an excuse to be on wagons and it's natural to have seen that as slightly scummy. Saying she's shitposting a lot while not offering content doesn't mean he has to read every post of hers as a shitpost, right? Allo also maintained consistency I think, as he directly responded to that question even then (before the rest of her shitposts). I feel like that was Eve's sole reason in voting Allo, so as far as "similar mindsets" go... meh?

As to your second point, noted; but I think there's a little more to uncover there, which I might do after studying your meta in further depth. If I have the energy to do that

Sure, my points on Allomancer:
- I really don't think it's made a lot of game advancing reads or pushes. The ISO gives me the impression of occasional commentary to blend in, rather than genuine beliefs it has that it wants to pursue.
- The strongest point for this is how he shaded acryon in 204 and unvoted in 205, but doesn't vote anywhere. Then it gets called out for being passive and not really engaging in tangible reads, and only then it votes in 215. That reads to me like appeasement and not like someone making a bonafide attempt to get more information from the game.
- Even now, sitting as a lead wagon with us inching ever closer to deadline, it's not really engaging with its wagon and is going so far to question votes on the counterwagon. I have no sense that I truly feel who Allomancer would like to flip by the end of today, and what it's doing to get there. It pushes back on my Sausaurus townread - why? Does it think Saus is scum? If so, why not actually

push/i] that?

If we flip Allo, I'm fine with Eve not being in the cop bloc, and if Allo flips town then clearly I am misreading parts of the gamestate and would be absolutely willing to re-evaluate or cop her. That's part of why she's prob-town: my most confident townreads I don't think would change in my eyes solely on an Allo townflip.

Quick ISO skim shows me he's stated reads on: 1/0, Auro, Crayon, Skitter, Nom, GL, Rex, Eve... is there anything that makes you believe they are not genuine beliefs? I agree that he's not

pursuing

them, but I fail to see how that is scummy. I am pretty sure this is his style. Also, I don't at all believe your vote must always lie on your strongest scumread, and I'm pretty confident you can pull out instances from his towngames where he "shades" someone while not voting them. If this behavior is different from his towngames, sure, it's scummy; otherwise nah. Passivity and lack of strong engagement is not a scumtell in of itself, and should be backed up with evidence from playstyle IMO.
Allo's nonchalance at being wagoned is towny, I feel.
Again, I implore you to skim at least two town!Allo games, and then tell me if you reach the same conclusions, if possible.

Yeah I mean I can see that. I feel some mixed feelings about Skitter too. I don't think her attacks on Smart are legitimate - especially not if she has any history with Smart - and I feel the pushback on the way TLDNE looked at Saus is really opportunistic and not giving TLDNE any benefit of the doubt at all, esp given that Skit even mirrored some of those same thoughts previously.

If she has history with Smart, do you think scum!Skitter would be approaching him the way she did? I'm not implying anything with that question, just curious.
Skitter felt that 1/0 didn't give the benefit of the doubt to Rex while saying that Rex jumped to conclusions, do you see that as legitimate?
If so, her calling out 1/0 for the same thing is legitimate.
Funny. 1/0 thinks Rex is not giving them the benefit of the doubt. Skitter thinks 1/0 is not giving Rex the benefit of the doubt. And now you think Skitter is not giving 1/0 the benefit of the doubt.
And I, in turn, think that

you

are not giving Skitter the benefit of the doubt

---

I am excited to treat this game as an exercise in pedantry, sophistry, and massive wall-posting.

No apologies for the walls. :3

[Auro]

@514:

Okay, cool, so she didn't catch up in thread with your clarification on the "strawman" when she made that point... ok? So?
Like you think as scum she reads your clarification and goes "oh lulz let me attack them for it anyway"?

Saying the same things as you did later does not mean she can't point out a specific point of yours against Rex as a strawman.

You do realize that she was making posts as she caught up, right? Look at the sequencing of posts and her progression on Rex there - I thought that much was obvious?

Yes, she points out a post from Rex as SvS-y and what not, attacks your attacks on him because they feel disingenuous to her, then progresses to a nullish read on Rex - I frankly don't see the problem here. It's just a thought process? Perhaps if you read it under that light, you will see that her posts are consistent with updating beliefs on catching up, instead of looking for consistency as a single belief state as a whole.

[Auro]

@Skitter:

User profile -> Board settings -> choose the custom option in the date and time setting and modify to "D M d, Y g:i a s"

[Auro]

Agreeing with the conclusion doesn't mean you can't attack the process

[Auro]

Also I don't think you understand what she was saying.
Maybe I'm misunderstanding things, I dunno. Maybe let's just have her respond.

[Auro]

As scum it's important to give correct answers to factual questions, when I ask "did you guys discuss strategy before playing the game" for example - safer to make sure they're on the same page regarding answering that.

[Auro]

As scum it's important to give correct answers to factual questions, when I ask "did you guys discuss strategy before playing the game" for example - safer to make sure they're on the same page regarding answering that.

they can be either town or scum who didn't discuss strategy before playing the game and give a truthful answer either way ...

Can be, but it's safer to discuss it first instead of assuming the other is going to be truthful about it as well, no?

@your next post: Yeah, I didn't see that you didn't post from then, sorry

[Auro]

No, I start with the assumption that they do not commit to not-lying before the game, in which case the individually safer play is to assume that the other's answer *may* differ from theirs given what I asked.
They both independently replied under a minute; that thought didn't even come to them. No hesitation.

I don't feel good about GuiltyLion, if I haven't said that in my walls to him

[Auro]

I don't feel that Lilith is coming from a place of intentional misrepresentation though, I think she just doesn't understand the double standards that others perceive. Skitter, what do you feel about Lilith's continued engagement on this?

[Auro]

Skitter vs GuiltyLion should be interesting

Yup, and sorry @Lilith but I think Skitter's right here, but further engagement about any of this is fruitless, personally.

[Auro]

Billy? Like in Billy Bob Molla?

[Auro]

Oh nvm you're talking about a different game, ok

[Auro]

Allo/skit kinda feels like The Solve for me rn.

Guilty/Eve feels like The Solve for me rn

[Auro]

Apologies. As I said, if I'm wrong about you, I'll get there at some point, I think.

[Auro]

I personally don't consider post count as a reliable metric, when I'm confident you're certainly capable of posting high, and especially with the widely different context here.

I don't advocate a lynch on you at all, but if I were the cop I'd assign some extra weight to the die for your slot.

Your attack on Skitter for her 1/0 push seems concerning to me, for example.

[Auro]

like WHO ACTUALLY SAYS THIS about SOMEONE THEY'RE VOTING

like sure yes I do owe it to you to go try to read some town!Allo games

No no, you don't. I'll read them up myself and cite evidence if I find it, or change my mind if I notice anything different.

[Auro]

We agree 1/0 is town. Anyone who attacks that slot at this point is going to get flak from me, it's not a pro-town move at all and just reads like trying to open up a future lynchpool. And then skitter winds up... townreading 1/0 anyway. Either she's not thinking at all and just messily posting lazy takes or she's scum.

I think you award her a lot more flak than is deserved for pushing a townread on arguably legitimate reasoning

[Auro]

Subject: Micro 842: Lynchpin 8p (Game Over)

Am I moving around a lot? Yes. Is that scum indicative? No.

Creature was my favored lynch

, but over time,

he started seeming more towny,

so I think it is in fact good I was staying off his wagon until close to the deadline. Since then, I haven't really been sure of any reads, which is why I've been moving around a lot, pressuring people, hoping to get something to make me more confident.

Subject: Micro 842: Lynchpin 8p (Game Over)

What made Creature more towny to you?

As late as 513 you were lobbying for a lynch and I see no indication in your ISO you found him more towny. I think I’d buy that more if you were taking my path and saying “whelp I can’t have Creature today” but your read on him apparently correlated with the wagon on him? That’s a red flag.

Maybe "more towny" was the wrong way to phrase it. "less scummy" might be better. Not so much that it was a definite townread, I just wasn't so sure anymore, and I thought it was better to move on and formulate some reads on some other players.

Don't find it crazy to find someone "townier" but still a scumread. Quoted are posts similar to this, in principle.

Allo was town that game. The Great Wall was a hydra I was part of, and we were scum

[Auro]

whoops, was gonna respond to that Auro post but had decided against it, basically like I kinda disagree but I was able to see where you're coming from, but usually I'm more interested in outcomes and generating info rather than like petty squabbling with people who mutually share your scumreads

Yeah, absolutely fine with moi. :

[Auro]

apologies. i'll be back later to get caught up.

allo is likely town imo

GuiltyLion, you should engage with Karmage about Allo/Eve too.

Having a hard time staying engaged in a game with massive walls, let me be real here.

If you'd like, I can try to summarize walls I read and make.

[Auro]

Auro that... seems like a rather disingenuous example? In that game, you were accusing Allo for not voting Creature and vote hopping around elsewhere. Allo doesn't ever wind up voting Creature, who Allo was waffling on.

I mean, Allo wanting Creature's lynch the whole day (which is true even if there was no vote there, no reason to believe town him lies) but finding Creature "townier" through the day is similar to here.

And not my attack, but his explanation to my attack where he talks about how he means "less scummier" instead.

I'm citing a specific instance of his scumreading someone while finding someone townier.

[Auro]

So skitter drops the entire push and says "okay I guess hydra is town" as soon as she receives external pressure regarding her push on me, and you're just cool with that?

Oh, god, no, she took a step back and reached the correct assessment that this is fruitless and your arguments sound sincere even if wrong.

I think the way you go about this (her attacking you without voting you) lacks nuance.

I'm curious: are you on the same page about Skitter as Smart? Does he agree with your arguments?

[Auro]

Do you have a preferred lynch?

[Auro]

I'll see if lilith can give the sparknotes on her skitter reasoning.

"He was strawmanning / misrepping / disingenuous"
"No u"
"No u"
"NO U"
"Ok fine you sound sincere I guess"
"NO U and why didn't you vote me"

[Auro]

Would like it if you talk to Lilith and help critically evaluate Skitter/Allo, etc.

[Auro]

You're talking about my interpretation of the Skitter-1/0 arguments?

[Auro]

I don't totally agree with that claim, but she also backed off kinda suddenly without really resolving the issue

i think her engagement back on this is p decent, and the more i'm bickering with her about this, the more i'm feeling we're both very firmly entrenched in believing that 'our side is right' and I've been sniping back because i feel like she isn't really understanding my pov, so i feel like i need to keep repeating myself to get my point across

You don't think this is a sufficient resolution of the issue?
Do you foresee that if Skitter continued to explain her PoV, Lilith would understand where the miscommunication lay?

I struggle to see why continued engagement there is useful.

[Auro]

I guess it's sufficient if she really did change her mind but that post reads like a "let's agree to disagree" post except she seems to be simultaneously admitting that she was wrong and insisting that she was not wrong.

I do think further discussion probably would illuminate the issue more, though it would also distract the hell out of everyone else.

I think agreeing to disagree is the pro-town move for someone who realizes that there's a miscommunication problem and the other is town.

[Auro]

2. calling out auro for him being willing to be off-wagon when from his pov he knows he's town

Just saying, this is partially in line with my expectations of how scum would counter my play if I was generally right on my townbloc.

[Auro]

Just listen to me pl0x and throw this entire line of conversation out the window, that's how to fix it!

[Auro]

Karnage thinks he is likely town, maybe you should talk it out with Karnage first

[Auro]

We have like six days left nom, from the first Votecount

[Auro]

Except there's been tons of discussion on the strategy and it should already be easy to see why I volunteer.

Molla answered it because it's a question that's already been answered before, even if his perceived reason is "surfacey". That is not a "defense of Auro" , and lack of depth in Molla's thoughts is not AI for him (I am sure of this; please check any of his towngames if you think I'm wrong)

[Auro]

when they spend most of the game discrediting/ignoring my scumreads and saying I'm scum! that's normal, is it not?

I have townread people pushing me many times: if their reasoning on me is legitimate and I don't see bad faith, I evaluate them on different parameters.

and it literally is a defense of you, for whatever reason Eve wanted YOU to answer that question. Not Molla

He didn't say I was town, he didn't say the question sucked, he just offered the reason he understood from what was already discussed many times in thread.

Firstly, it's a huge stretch to guess an intent of "let me defend Auro by saying this and gain towncred!". If we're scum together there's no reason to have to defend me; and "easy avenues to engage with the thread" can literally apply to anything! Even considering this as "towncred noise" it makes sense if his noise to signal ratio is skewed, but that is not the case - shoving him to the scumpile from just that one post is

[Auro]

The walls between you two did not feel like TvT

Could totes be TvT

[Auro]

There is no wifom, her claim is random, scum will take her to LyLo

[Auro]

I leaned this way, but didn't think it was helpful to state it explicitly. Though I don't blame you for doing so.

helpful if consensus is that Eve is preferred lynch but should be left alive because claim

[Auro]

There is no reason not to lynch Allo here. Nobody townreads the guy.

I actually do moreso than Eve, at least, but I surrender to the will of the holy townbloc

Whoever is not in the townbloc, remove your votes pl0x, so the others can take your place.

[Auro]

We can get him to L-1 with just townbloc members. If Eve lolhammers now, she is the D2 lynch.

[Auro]

I will also like to pre-emptively discuss this with you, Guilty: If Allo flips town, how would that shape your reads?

[Auro]

I have another tack I want to try to reach out to Auro - in a bit

Heyo, just lynch scumz and I will be happy!

[Auro]

Even after noting that I'm pretty ambivalent about all this and only care that townbloc has consensus, while merely stating personal opinion?

Interesting that you think my soft defense of Allo means Auro posturing is +likely compared to Auro trying to subtly influence against it.

[Auro]

I'll give actual thoughts on good die weights based on flip for the N1 shot at L-1 with intent, someone remind me then

[Auro]

pagetop

[Auro]

ugh

[Auro]

I think the reason I've been getting frustrated (slash occasionally feeling an agenda to your posts) is because you keep saying you don't really care about who is lynched between Eve/Allo

I don't see a reason why my not-really-caring about that means I shouldn't question you.

You should treat them as independent things. If you're scum, a reliable way of "catching" you will be my critique about your logical analyses, therefore I pick them apart. If you're town, seeing where you come from would make me feel better.

[Auro]

At the end of the day, yeah Molla might be town who was just trying to summarize previously why you said you were fine being off wagon. He might also be scum trying to make Eve look worse and buddy you. I don't know! I slightly felt the latter explanation and vibed with Eve voting there at the time, that's all there is to it. I really can't justify it much beyond that.

So? My attack here was subtle; that you're assigning more weight to that Molla post rather than a holistic read. Even if it's a D1 read, and both cases are possible, this is still something that pings.

I know you don't know for sure, I'm questioning your judgement that it lacks the nuance it should be. And I don't believe I exaggerated your implication from phrasing.

On a general level with high benefit of doubt, it's very hard to solve someone who can come up with legitimate reasoning on any stance they want to pursue, so it's the subtleties to narrow down on then. Yeah, it results in walls sometimes, and comes off pedantic, but that's a non-cost.

[Auro]

That doesn't seem like a red flag to me; a red flag would be something that indicates a scum agenda, but I don't see how this helps further a scum agenda.

Eeeeexactly, I'm with Smart here

He says scummy sounding things in his towngames. I've lynched him as scum for that. He often gets lynched.

I am surprised that Nomnomnom calls Eve mislynch bait but doesn't see Allo that way.

[Auro]

Genuineness reflects in the nuances of logical reasoning. Yeah, I am disproportionately picking apart your slot for now, I'll be doing that to other slots as well.

[Auro]

Because Eve is more scummy in tone and that has the tendency to make people think "scum" instantly.
She still could be scum ultimately speaking, in this gamestate. If I had a vig shot I'd shoot her right now.

If Allo flips town, would you think she is a good lynch D2 in absence of any other information or posting, then?

[Auro]

there's a power scum in that group of four I mentioned, then this is shaping up to be an ugly and difficult game

Except for 1/0 we all have a good chance of being caught if we're scum so you needn't worry too much

[Auro]

Off wagon Eve alao off wagon

[Auro]

what is he trying to accomplish here as scum anyways?

Drown the thread in walls which people can't read so everyone gets frustrated

[Auro]

I was just kidding - but yeah, definitely.

[Auro]

i mean if you were scum trying to do that it seems to be working
a lot of people are getting annoyed with the walls and i'm going to be honest and admit to skimming some of the recent you/gl back-and-forth here

I don't think my GL walls need any close reading from anyone apart from GL anyway, and I've mostly skipped all the Lilith walls calling XYZ disingenuous (sorry).

I love walls personally regardless of alignment. This is a forum game and it's fine IMO, people should learn to deal with them. Walls at this pace >>> 200 pages of spamposts IMO

[Auro]

But your conclusion is that GL is scum - what's your % confidence?

[Auro]

My confidence is low, because GuiltyLion *is* putting in a lot of effort and I think there were ways he could slip out from my/our push if he wanted to; his willingness to give me a fair chance and even take up effort in meta studies of people at my request is +townie, even if he's capable

I had looked up the last time we were town together: I made a "bad point" and GL pushed me super hard over that from some sort of logic BoP. Need to compare play here

Also need to check if GL complaining when getting pushed is a tell either way.

75%? Wow. I'd want to be very sure on GL before I consider lynching him.

[Auro]

Can you please summarize what you think is AI for GL in tldr points, again? I'll prolly dig up a few games of his to read through, would be helpful going in knowing what to look for

[Auro]

Allo, you'll need to offer significantly more analysis right now - you're the current consensus lynch.

[Auro]

Please unvote and have the townbloc members vote him.

[Auro]

I don't think that I will need to.

There is

no

case where you don't need to, pal.

[Auro]

I think Molla and Karnage could swap, personally

[Auro]

Please unvote and have the townbloc members vote him.

@Eve

[Auro]

he doesn't have to effort this much to do it

note that I fully enjoy it and don't see it as effort, lol. Although if I was setting up a mislynch on you, going about giving you a lot of stuff to counter and wall about which no one reads isn't the optimal way to go about it

[Auro]

~ self metaaaa ~

I feel like I'm one of the few people on this site who loves self meta

[Auro]

{Nomnomnom, Karnage, 1/0, Acryon, Rex, Allomancer}
this should be the wagon

[Auro]

Part n+1 of me shading and annoying GuiltyLion

Spoiler:

also this is a bad reason to give me townpoints, i'm entirely capable of faking this

it's only a bad reason if you wind up being scum

it's less that you're capable and more that I think it's less likely that you would

this is a tremendously bad post, for the record

everybody knows faking townreads as scum is easy. It also feels like unnatural/forced reasoning - "they're not playing how in this specific manner I would expect scum to play, therefore they're town"

like you're giving them town credit for doing something that either alignment would want to do to look town.

I have to think a townie - especially players of

redacted

caliber - would see that a scum!

redacted

could fake this level of content so far and would have more paranoia

this feels like a fabricated townread because they already decided previously that they didn't want to scumread

redacted

slot

Points for guessing who said the quoted parts once upon a time to someone who townread someone else for "bad reasons"

[Auro]

yeah, town lynched you for the lulz. Were you town or scum?

[Auro]

I dunno, but Eve has to unvote first.

Allo are you going to produce any useful content at all?

[Auro]

I have been having those thoughts about Nomnomnom as well.

[Auro]

I would be against a Molla lynch. He offered no resistance to being in the bloc, and insisted on staying in it even when I said I could maybe swap him with Karnage.

[Auro]

scum sitting back and not doing much

Who could fit this, apart from, say, Nom/Rex?

[Auro]

Do you feel like he was simply reflecting general consensus?

[Auro]

i think that eve is basically lynchbait and i dont' really want to end the day voting there, it would kinda feel like a waste after everything
it's like voting notmafia ... yes they're annoying and not being +townie but that doesn't inherently make them scummy

Are these slots you would eliminate before LyLo?

[Auro]

I don't know I'm lost with this game and all these wallposts make me skip significant discussion
Karnage is like obvtown right? What made you doubt about him?

Are you skipping everything, or just the walls? I think the number of walls is much smaller than you make it out to be.

[Auro]

Smart, what do you think about swapping out Nom and Karnage from the townbloc, and replacing them with Molla and one of Skitter/Lion?

[Auro]

Cuz your smart???


I think dictating wagonz before the lynch is finalized could be a good thing, but you're right. Once town as a whole forms consensus and gets someone to L-1 with intent, we can wagon build then.

Do you townread anyone in Skit/GL though?

[Auro]

skitter has been saying a lot of things that don't make sense.

This is interesting; I felt the opposite from Skitter. Which parts?
(Pls none of the disingenuous/misrep/blah blah stuff again)

[Auro]

And not the defense of me, or attack on GL?

[Auro]

I do not at all think that is an emotion that props up in this gamestate. We're only 36 pages, there's a lot of rich content, some walls but not a lot... what's there to be sick of?

Why is all this meaningless? What would make it *meaningful*? Or do you generally think D1s are always meaningless, and you claim to play the same way every game?

[Auro]

What prevents you from saying "I'm sick of this, just get me one more flip" after D1, D2, D3...?

[Auro]

I disagree with that evaluation. Many pushes are happening, the gamestate is progressing well.

Okay; let's take your current desired lynch, and assume they flip town. That's a gamestate progression. What now? Please tell me what this information would gain for you in terms of a solve.

I think Skitter and GuiltyLion both are town.

[Auro]

Because Eve is more scummy in tone and that has the tendency to make people think "scum" instantly.
She still could be scum ultimately speaking, in this gamestate. If I had a vig shot I'd shoot her right now.
I might compromise on Eve if needed today.

VOTE: Eve

Also, please explain the vote change to Eve, given your earlier stance only listed her as a compromise.
What did Allo do that got you to move off?

[Auro]

Doesn't look like a joke to me.

[Auro]

Nom definitely goes into the copbloc. Molla goes into the copbloc.
I'm ambivalent about Karnage. If you and Smart think so, you could swap him out for any of Skitter/GuiltyLion.
I wouldn't leash the cop to just two slots though, but the cop could assign a higher weight to Nom when they roll the die

[Auro]

Molla goes to the townbloc*, sorry.

[Auro]

Sure. Actually, you indirectly raise a good point: What's the optimal *number* for a copbloc? So far I assumed a copbloc of 5 (which is the maximum) via mechanics and a die roll there, and we considered the other extreme of 1 (which had a few problems).

[Auro]

I think whoever isn't lynched in {Eve, Allomancer} should be in the cop bloc.

[Auro]

Sure. Actually, you indirectly raise a good point: What's the optimal *number* for a copbloc? So far I assumed a copbloc of 5 (which is the maximum) via mechanics and a die roll there, and we considered the other extreme of 1 (which had a few problems).

Thought about this and the answer is: maximum is better, and the cop *should* be able to weigh the die as they see fit! Leaving this to their discretion, while not allowing dayplay manipulation either. The advantage offered by a 1-leash (i.e. confirmed innocent) doesn't apply to any number greater than it, anyway.

[Auro]

They crumb it in a clever fashion. I'll post some threads/articles about crumbing; it should be discoverable if they die. However scum will be keeping a very close eye on this, so it could be hard.
Hypoclaiming is an option, but it works well when both scum are in the townbloc and badly when both scum are in the copbloc.
Guilties shouldn't be claimed immediately at least, probably let the day play out before claiming. This should definitely be crumbed strongly. If done well, cop can perhaps catch the other scum too, and if NK'd, we spot the guilty crumb.

Need to think more about this too.

[Auro]

Or perhaps meet in the middle and we hypo-crumb.

[Auro]

I disagree with that evaluation. Many pushes are happening, the gamestate is progressing well.

Okay; let's take your current desired lynch, and assume they flip town. That's a gamestate progression. What now? Please tell me what this information would gain for you in terms of a solve.

I think Skitter and GuiltyLion both are town.

Because Eve is more scummy in tone and that has the tendency to make people think "scum" instantly.
She still could be scum ultimately speaking, in this gamestate. If I had a vig shot I'd shoot her right now.
I might compromise on Eve if needed today.

VOTE: Eve

Also,

please explain the vote change to Eve

, given your earlier stance only listed her as a compromise.

What did Allo do that got you to move off

?

Sure, but can you answer these? Thanks.

[Auro]

Nom, what's your read on me?

You were on my ass pretty hard in Boon's game, went on to check my buddy, then told us to lynch another buddy in the Boonus room... Your play seems so much resigned and different here. I know you said you're unable to keep up but ehh

[Auro]

I'm worried under a hypocop mafia may be able to find the real TA too easily. If anyone hypoclaims a wrong result, mafia knows it's not them. If anyone changes a read on someone they had hypocopped, mafia knows it's not them.

It's tied to the number of mafia in the bloc. If both mafia escape, then hypo gives no information to them. If there's one mafia in the bloc, they can only eliminate two players on an average. If there's two, they can eliminate four, but the cop also has very decent chances of finding one we don't hypo guilties, only innos.

And I'm serious about hypo crumbing. Make it harder for scum to glean information lulz

GL are you strongly townreading Skitter then?

[Auro]

Give them a lot more work to parse?

[Auro]

For you. I think it's not so easy

[Auro]

^Yup, that is what I was feeling.

[Auro]

I was getting paranoid about you for agreeing on a lot of things, Molla

[Auro]

My preference is to lynch Allomancer. Eve should definitely be in the cop bloc; if she does not unvote in the next 24 hours, I think we should just lynch Eve!

{Acryon, 1/0, Karnage, BBMolla, Rex, Allomancer} -> Lynch Wagon
{Nomnomnom, Skitter30, GuiltyLion, Auro, Eve} -> Cop bloc

I would be wary of swapping GL into the townbloc at this moment, even though I townread him.

[Auro]

That would be true up until a few pages ago. Now you have some amount of heat on you so I don't think that holds up the same.

I had this observation too, nearly - not just heat on her, but the game seemed to be diverting

away

from Allomancer and Eve; and we began deliberating over changing the bloc compositions.
As scum, Allo/Eve lynch with Nom in the townbloc would be very beneficial. Nom seemed to stay on the sidelines as other people had arguments and duked it out, refusing to give any opinion on them excusing herself as "unable to read walls". Sounds a little like she was planning here, as scum in a game not so long ago at the beginning of the game:

Subject: Micro 924 | Insect Religion | scum pt (cockroach)

Sounds good! I advise to take it slow day one because I imagine in this playerlist people are going to argue a lot. I think if we save that for like, day 2-3 and you actively push against me back and say "yeah she did it as scum before" this could work

I do not townread her "AtE" responses either. Nom also feels like a fine lynch today, to me.

[Auro]

You do realize he's just stating his preference, but implies he'll go with consensus, right?

[Auro]

You do realize GuiltyLion is just stating his preference, implying GuiltyLion would just go with consensus, right?*

[Auro]

You do realize GuiltyLion is just stating his preference, implying GuiltyLion would just go with consensus, right?*

sure but I don't see that it matters. If I'm scum, why settle with whatever the consensus is?

So you're saying as scum he has no reason to settle with the consensus, yet he's implying he'll settle with it: so isn't that town indicative?

Or did you mean if you're town? To maintain cohesion. I'm doing the same thing - making suggestions.

[Auro]

Oh, nevermind, I misunderstood, but the response stays the same: Cohesion, as Crayon pointed out.

[Auro]

He is pushing you, no? I don't at all think pushes require votes to carry any weight.

[Auro]

I wouldn't lock it in place that we're deciding on a lynch and wagon right now, actually.

He is pushing you, no? I don't at all think pushes require votes to carry any weight.

except when you aren't voting at all

I mean, what is a vote anyway but an expression of desire to lynch? Instead, directly expressing that desire achieves the same function, no?

[Auro]

Paranoia, but I don't really mind either way.

[Auro]

I think Eve should be in the cop bloc if she's not lynched. So far she's shown an unwillingness to do so.
If she stubbornly joins wagons instead of co-operating, I would rather just lynch her is what I mean.