Newbie 2111 - Know Your Skittles! (Game Over)

[Aureal]

Probably! But maybe we should test the actual newbies first to make sure they aren't going to run away if we do something like VOTE: Human.

[Aureal]

Can I? Sure.

Will I? Hmmm.

UNVOTE: Human

VOTE: Human

[Aureal]

Aureal town

Aww but you said that already! Do I have to refresh my townread every page or something?

[Aureal]

Also VT read on Human Sequencer, it'd be odd to ignore a game if there's something interesting happening and since there's no indication of them going V/LA
(And thus clearly everyone that has posted so far must have an interesting role, QED you're all scum)

But if we're all interesting, then they shouldn't be ignoring us, right?

Hey, I know what we need to make this place more interesting. A circus! We can have balloons and clowns and highwire walking...

UNVOTE: Arko and VOTE: Python

Did that comment actually seem scummy to you?

[Aureal]

Okay, I've solved, it's Human and Weuler. GG all, especially Taly and Human Sequencer.

[Aureal]

@Aureal, what are your thoughts on Human? Do you think it was a slip or not?

Aww, you don't think I was being serious with my solve?

[Aureal]

Halp, I've been meta'd, haaaalp!

Two games isn't really enough of a meta to go on, but you get town points for the effort. (Also, did you see how well my efforts in Designer Mafia went?)

Very sad that everyone thinks my solve is fluff. Maybe I should wallpost.

[Aureal]

My Incredible Page 4 Solve, A Study In Infallibility

Human

Bruh

Startled by my vote and perhaps nervous!

rn I'm thinking Taly, Arko, Human
VOTE: human

VOTE: Akro

What better way to show yourself to be innocent than to vote someone who was just called as scum along with you?

Reaction testing

After reacting poorly to being voted, trying to distract by doing reaction testing on others.

I have noticed that of the 3 people who haven't talked yet 2 of them are SE's and it is RVS so it's worth a shot
VOTE: Taly

Now only SE's haven't posted yet
UNVOTE: VOTE: Human sequencer

Not just bringing up SEs for no apparent reason but repeating the thought without drawing any reasoning for SE status to be relevant, and moving vote from one to the other without any reasoning (the comment about Taly being on vacation came later). Why? *shrug*

Probably! But maybe we should test the actual newbies first to make sure they aren't going to run away if we do something like VOTE: Human.

I didn't run you can unvote now

Is still nervous about that vote!

Also VT read on Human Sequencer, it'd be odd to ignore a game if there's something interesting happening and since there's no indication of them going V/LA
(And thus clearly everyone that has posted so far must have an interesting role, QED you're all scum)

There are two sum and two PRs and nearly everyone has posted so far

And the possible scumslip, of course.

---

Weuler

Did that comment actually seem scummy to you?

No it seems like a comment from a newbie. Consider my vote an effort to discourage further PR-hunting.

Voting for a newbie for doing a newbie thing and not specifying that it isn't seeming scummy until questioned about it.

VOTE: human
Clear scumslip knowing there are two town prs

I can't tell if you're joking but you might be onto something. I didn't actually look at the Newbie Setup until now but Options A and B have three chances at 2 town PRs. Option C only has one.

I think role hunting in any form is harmful right now. I don't even know if talking about the Newbie Setup is a good idea

So you talk about the newbie setup and then say talking about it isn't a good idea?

Distorting Black's words to make her sound worse. But also subtly encouraging the idea that it's bad to be talking about the setup (and thus the possible scumslip).

Further, if we take the idea that this truly was a scumslip, we have to consider how Human would even realize the setup, for a true newbie isn't so likely to have considered the ramifications of the setup chart. If Human really did say that because he's scum who knows the possible setup thanks to scum info, it was likely because it was mentioned by a more experienced partner. And the most likely candidate would be Weuler, as I know it's not me, Elements pretty clearly wouldn't want to just promptly point out that her partner made a possible scumslip, Arko seems less likely due to his initial posting about being busy, and the other two SEs had yet to materialize though theoretically they could've posted in the mafia PT but not here (my joke about it being especially thanks to them wasn't

entirely

a joke ).

Please clap.

[Aureal]

VOTE: aureal
Do you actually believe what you're writing?

Do you have a better page 4 solve? No, no you do not.

'course, it's page 9 now, so maybe I need to do something more. Foo.

I can't believe you forgot to consider me being the person who told Human the setup, is this how little you think of me.

Awwww, I'm sorry! I can consider you a possible scum too if you want! I hadn't seen enough of you by page 4 yet to consider you!

Also curious as to why Black is missing from that list too, given that it's their second game out of retirement and so presumably they can read the setup.

I could say that Black commented on not having read the setup, but really it just hadn't sunk in yet that they aren't totally new here (Arko too, but I remembered by the time I posted above). I played with Weuler and Elements before as you saw, so I know they're experienced enough to know these things.

Also also your reasoning that "for a true newbie isn't so likely to have considered the ramifications of the setup chart" falls apart when I'm also a newbie and have read the setup chart. As much as we newbies have to learn, basic reading comprehension is (hopefully) not one of them.

Did you read it and realize that mafia know which three sets of PRs they might possibly have in their game? That's a little more than just basic reading comprehension, it takes a little bit of basic analysis too.

[Aureal]

Rest of the pages:

The way Human immediately goes to the assumption that my solve is going to get him voted out is weeeeeird. He's definitely new, that's for sure. The interaction with Weuler about the wording is more interesting, though. After being imprecise with Black's post as I noted earlier, Weuler complains in 122 and 123 and then some more in 133 about Human's wording, almost like he's thinking Human really is going to go down for this and really doesn't want to be associated with it if actually scum partners. Asks me if I think it was a slip, and when I ask whether he thinks I was being serious he actually uses an exclamation point(!) to say he's not sure if I am when normally he hardly even uses punctuation- the only exclamation points used thus far are saying hello in his intro post.

Also people point out possible alternate reasoning for Human to say what he did, which had not occured to me and honestly it's probably more likely that he was just writing hastily.

And usesPython makes me very sad by continuing the baffling trend of using an exclamation point as some sort of linkage between a name and alignment. I expected you of all people to know that an exclamation mark means NOT, not EQUALS.

Did you read it and realize that mafia know which three sets of PRs they might possibly have in their game? That's a little more than just basic reading comprehension, it takes a little bit of basic analysis too.

Yes? All you'd have to really do is read the spoilered Full Setups in post 0. Mafia not being told their partner or their partners role in the PM if I'm understanding the Sample Role PMs correctly can be instantly solved by just claiming in the PT which they can post in at any time at which point you can instantly eliminate 6/9 possible role lists once either a mafia PR has claimed or both mafia claim Mafia Goon

Yes, but this requires enough analysis of the setup to realize that knowledge of the roles allows you to do that. Not everyone is going to think that far, and first-timers won't have experienced it yet. That is all. (the roles are probably listed by the mod in the PT even without sharing with each other, from what I can see of previous mafia PTs from newbie games)

[Aureal]

VOTE: Aureal
*clap* *clap* *clap*

*bows, collects hats and flowers*

Is there a specific reason you double checked the format of a mafia PT from previous games? The exact mechanics of how mafia know their partner and roles don't seem to be that important given that the end result is the same and you don't strike me as the type of person to be this diligent about this type of stuff.

Because your comment made me curious as it hadn't even occurred to me that scum possibly wouldn't know their partner's role without sharing. Oddly, some of the non newbie threads did not give any info about roles at the start and they didn't share with each other either, though they could've gotten the info in their role PM. And it wouldn't have the same ramifications on the game as a newbie game with the set chart used here. (Ironically I did recently read an old game of mine where we apparently didn't bother to tell our teammates our cool roles, though we only got to talk at night in PMs back then)

And I totally am the kind of person who's diligent about this stuff.

[Aureal]

I expected you of all people to know that an exclamation mark means NOT, not EQUALS.

Omg. I have been doing this wrong for like a week now? How embarrassing

I just woke up and I'm half working half trying to catch up on the last few pages. I'll post my thoughts here in a bit

You're probably posting in Mafia threads not writing computer code so you're fine. Just a pet peeve of mine that somehow it became the opposite of its proper meaning in Mafia threads.

[Aureal]

Weuler, Black, Elements, and Aureal; do you think that if Humans post of

There are two sum and two PRs and nearly everyone has posted so far

was a real slip he would need help from another person to conclude the number of PRs in the game or is it possible for him to come to the same conclusion on his own without assistance?

Isn't that what I said already, that it was likely to be the case for total newbies? Obviously you're an exception. But based on what I've seen so far, if anyone was going to need the additional nudge, it'd be him. Not the most diligent.

Actually, let's get into your comment some more. Why do you think I wouldn't be diligent enough to look at past PTs? What leads you to that conclusion?

[Aureal]

Looks to be the mods. For the various name colors, I expect.

[Aureal]

Literally both of those quotes have us calling it a "possible" slip. And I already acknowledged that I hadn't considered the idea of it being another type of slip until other people mentioned it.

[Aureal]

I'm confused python. Why does Human have to be mason if he's town? Couldn't he theoretically be any of the town power roles that have another PR alongside them? What am I missing here

He could as long as you believe he's smart enough to figure out the setup by himself (which I think he is). Since Weuler and Aureal don't however, if the slipup is real then according to them he'd need access to a PT containing someone who could figure out the setup by themselves. Thus they should be considering scum!Human AND mason!Human, yet they completely ignore the possibility of mason!Human?

I see where you're coming from now and I'm just going to have to tell you that if you expect somewhat more experienced people to just be perfectly logical and deeply analyze every possibility before thinking something, you're going to be in for a lot of disappointment.

Also can we please not equate "highly analytical" with "smart" please? I'm not calling Human not smart so please don't put words in my mouth.

[Aureal]

Alright time for my solve: There's at least one scum between Aureal and Weuler, and if either of them flip scum there's a Mafia Rolecop

And now that I'm home from work I've had a little more time to think on this so I have to ask: with your logic here, shouldn't you think it's both of us who are the scum? Why are you leaving wiggle room for it to only be one of us?

Furthermore, if you want to continue to go down this rabbit hole of what you think people should have thought about, consider that you yourself have overlooked the possibility that we wouldn't have thought Human could be a mason because we have power roles so we know that he isn't a mason. I'd really like to keep the power role chatter to a minimum, though, the more people talk about them the more possible clues scum can get.

Actually given that Newbie 2108 that Aureal played in had masons in it (One of which was nightkilled n1 and the other nightkilled n2), it's even weirder for her to ignore even the possibility of mason!Human

I note that you single me out here even though Weuler was in that game too, though the masons were revealed after he stopped being an active player. Elements was in it as well. So why is it particularly weirder (is this seriously a word?) for me?

Elements vote hoping is hard to determine because it could be liberated town or performative scum

Ever played with Elements before? This is definitely a thing she does as town.

[Aureal]

I'm not saying she doesn't do it as scum either. Probably does. I literally said in our previous game that I wasn't really able to read her so I had to just go with it for a while on the hopes of the statistically most likely scenario of her being town until I could start trying to figure out if there was some ulterior purpose to it. She thought that was the worst reason ever.

[Aureal]

And now that I'm home from work I've had a little more time to think on this so I have to ask: with your logic here, shouldn't you think it's both of us who are the scum? Why are you leaving wiggle room for it to only be one of us?

When it comes to reads I also include the element of human fallibility. If it was just you or just Weuler ignoring mason!Human I'd call it scummy but not enough by itself to constitute a solve and a read on the role list since either one of you by yourself could have missed it. BOTH of you missing it gives me reason to believe at least one of you know enough about the rolelist that you can exclude Masons from the game

Does not follow. If you believe that it's possible for someone to simply look at the thread to see Elements pointing it out as a possible scumslip and just go "interesting, could be something to that" then comment briefly and go back to what they were doing without spending an excessive amount of time analyzing every possibility, you have to believe it possible for both of us. Since I know that to be the case for me, I can readily believe it could be the case for Weuler as well.

Furthermore, if you want to continue to go down this rabbit hole of what you think people should have thought about, consider that you yourself have overlooked the possibility that we wouldn't have thought Human could be a mason because we have power roles so we know that he isn't a mason. I'd really like to keep the power role chatter to a minimum, though, the more people talk about them the more possible clues scum can get.

Fair point but my reads on you and Weuler ignoring the whole Human debacle are at best null, more realistically slightly scummy. I consider the possibility of scum!Aureal or scum!Weuler more likely than PR!Aureal or PR!Weuler

I think we're at an impasse then. Not going to keep talking about PRs here.

Aureal, what are your reads atm?

My read is that it's strange for you of all people to ask me for reads. I'm with Weuler on thinking you're being more chaotic than before. Maybe you need to make us a nice table, I bet Python will love it.

Not feeling great that Weuler went to e-1. I wasn't even voting there, and I'm the one who started casting shade there.

Python is either trying to make bad pushes by trying to invoke logic or really needs to learn that being town does not make one a computer that instantly calculates all possibilities.

Human has made some decent points, though I'm still not sold on him being newtown rather than newscum.

The way Black keeps invoking me is interesting, I'm starting to feel like she wants to hide behind me.

Arko and HS should be due prods, not seen enough of them.

I have nothing to say about Dragons but don't want him to feel excluded.

[Aureal]

The read was done with an assumption that you and Weuler had spent time analyzing what the implications of a slip would be,

Well, there's your problem.

You thought that solve post was fluff originally. Now you think it's the product of a thorough analysis of every possible scenario? C'mon.

(the roles are probably listed by the mod in the PT even without sharing with each other, from what I can see of previous mafia PTs from newbie games)

Is there a specific reason you double checked the format of a mafia PT from previous games? The exact mechanics of how mafia know their partner and roles don't seem to be that important given that the end result is the same and you don't strike me as the type of person to be this diligent about this type of stuff.

Because your comment made me curious as it hadn't even occurred to me that scum possibly wouldn't know their partner's role without sharing. Oddly, some of the non newbie threads did not give any info about roles at the start and they didn't share with each other either, though they could've gotten the info in their role PM. And it wouldn't have the same ramifications on the game as a newbie game with the set chart used here. (Ironically I did recently read an old game of mine where we apparently didn't bother to tell our teammates our cool roles, though we only got to talk at night in PMs back then)

And I totally am the kind of person who's diligent about this stuff.

Elements and Weuler, you two played with Aureal in Newbie 2108. Do you think this is a scumslip?

Now you're just really grasping for anything. It's like you

want

me to have not specified that I had looked at previous game PTs because that would be easier to pass off as sus, so you're just acting like it's what I said anyway.

I'm gonna lose like at least 2.5 Solve Points for this but I think I'm going to have to VOTE: usesPython here, for leaving the path of logic.

[Aureal]

He could literally just not answer, I tend to believe it when people want time to better answer something. Unless they don't ever do so.

[Aureal]

Well it certainly seems to indicate that I don't want to eliminate Weuler at this point, yes. I don't want to eliminate anyone right now, there's lots of time yet and people we've barely heat from.

Question for Python: how much of the game do you think exists in the space between fluff and highly analyzed reasoning?

[Aureal]

And by the game, I mean Mafia in general, not this specific game.

[Aureal]

I think the point is Python is intimidated by me and wants to move on to an easier target, while trying to get in a dig or two in the process.

[Aureal]

So the answer is "hardly anything"?

[Aureal]

While this would normally then imply

2. ... Aureal [is] competent enough at analysis that mistakes can be taken to likely indicate alignment

it's completely contradicted by 376. This seems like an actual attempt at factual analysis, but falls apart the second you actually look into it.

You really like feeling smarter than other people, don't you?

The read was done with an assumption that you and Weuler had spent time analyzing what the implications of a slip would be,

Well, there's your problem.

You thought that solve post was fluff originally. Now you think it's the product of a thorough analysis of every possible scenario? C'mon.

Is factually incorrect and can be verified by looking at post numbers (explained in 378)

There is nothing incorrect here. You explained it yourself in the post you cite here. First, I posted my solve. Second, you said that I was only posting fluff (thus including my solve post). Third, I elaborated with some reasons to support my solve. It is exactly as I remember it. This post is calling you out for not having any middle ground between fluff and thorough analysis of every possible scenario, which is pretty clearly where the solve belongs. That's why I asked you how you feel about that area earlier today.

Now you're just really grasping for anything. It's like you

want

me to have not specified that I had looked at previous game PTs because that would be easier to pass off as sus, so you're just acting like it's what I said anyway.

Is implicitly incorrect because if I wanted it to look like Aureal didn't specify she looked at previous games PTs then why would I directly quote her saying it when I asked Weuler and Elements for their input.

This is absolutely incredible. "I didn't make a mistake, YOU made a mistake!" Why do you think my reaction to your post is so incredulous? You quoted the exact reasons why it isn't a slip in your post then acted like they weren't there. If you'd left out the exact quotes so that it wasn't perfectly clear that you were barking up the wrong tree, I might have just quoted them back at you with emphasis on the relevant info and told you to read more carefully, but they were right there for you.

If you're scum about to wallpost a long analysis defending yourself and post a read, wouldn't you post in the PT to get a second set of eyes on this first? And then wouldn't that scum team double check those statements to be factual so as to not look scummy and instead opt for an alternative explanation that's consistent with the posts so far?

Wow, this is even more of a stretch than my figuring that first-time newbies might not immediately realize that mafia know a good bit more about the setup than town. (Which, btw, was my suggesting a POSSIBILITY, which you have been turning into a firm stance that anything else is impossible.) FROM WHAT I'VE READ OF OPENED MAFIA PTS (*cough* ) I haven't seen mafia doing much post drafting there. And if you think that mafia should be doing that, what do you think I should have done as mafia if my partner was low activity or inactive, as some of our players have been?

And of course, you have pointed out no statements that are not factual.

These read like legitimate mistakes that I don't see why scum!Aureal and her hypothetical scum partner would make but can be very easily explained by town!Aureal not being experienced in rigorous analysis and being confident in her memories to not double check the entire thread before posting

My memory is just fine, and you

definitely

really like feeling smarter than other people (in a bad way), so I'm not sure I'm going to bother with any more of this. Everyone else has probably already tuned it out.

[Aureal]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Elements

Now that HS has been replaced I'm moving my vote back

If you're trying to prompt activity, why not vote Arko? He'd have been replaced by now too except he got a totally contentless post in less than two hours after I noted those two were due for prods. And has not been back in the full day since, despite saying he'd get to it soon. That doesn't feel like a great sign.

[Aureal]

I have no idea because he's hardly said anything. So far though I haven't seen a good track record for people who post things like "sorry I've been busy, I'll get to this soon" then you're still waiting for soon a day later.

[Aureal]

And yeah, I don't consider there to be a middleground between fluffposting and wallposting when I'm making reads. If you're gonna fluffpost sure whatever, I can tune it out. Reading people irl is hard enough for me already, I'm not going to kid myself thinking I'll get accurate reads through text there, especially with how much time there is to actually draft a post. If you're gonna wallpost something I can actually analyze though, either do it properly so I can generate an actual read on you instead of having to go through 50 posts of back and forth talking past each other or specify how fluff vs wall the post actually is

You are not going to enjoy this response, but trying to figure out how much fluff is in a post is a part of the game. And it's not fluff vs. wall, it's fluff vs. content; a wall refers to the format in which a post is made. I could wallpost a bunch of fluff. Fluff can actually turn into content.

See, my answer to my question would have been "like 90%" and the answer itself would be in that like 90%, because I certainly would not go out and start trying to do research and analysis on mafia threads and how full of content their posts are just to answer that question here. Not so many things require huge amounts of analysis- page 4 of day 1 certainly does not. Some people are going to be more inclined to do more analysis than others, just like some people are going to be more inclined to stream of consciousness whatever thoughts they have when they have them, or joke a lot, or follow what other people think, or anything else. Even the same person is going to have varying levels of these attributes due to other variables such as their environment, energy, time available, state of the game, and so forth.

Is implicitly incorrect because if I wanted it to look like Aureal didn't specify she looked at previous games PTs then why would I directly quote her saying it when I asked Weuler and Elements for their input.

This is absolutely incredible. "I didn't make a mistake, YOU made a mistake!" Why do you think my reaction to your post is so incredulous? You quoted the exact reasons why it isn't a slip in your post then acted like they weren't there. If you'd left out the exact quotes so that it wasn't perfectly clear that you were barking up the wrong tree, I might have just quoted them back at you with emphasis on the relevant info and told you to read more carefully, but they were right there for you.

I already made the implicit explicit in 381, I'm not repeating myself here

Yes you did. I noticed it. You said that you knew that I did check old PTs, and went to ask people if they thought it was true that I did check old PTs anyway, as if the answer wasn't perfectly clear to you. If it was supposed to check what they would think, it was a poor way of doing it by putting the answer right in front of them and answering it for them before they answered. Like, what else are they going to say? "No, I don't think Aureal would go do research even though she said she did and you just said you know she did"? 381 is a nonsense post, you say you know I did something then immediately say you're confused whether I'm the type of person who would do the thing you know I did.

Oh and we haven't even gotten into how you wanted to conflate diligence in research of facts with diligence in analysis of possibilities. But I'll stop.

[Aureal]

I'm not offended someone disagrees with my reads. Disagree with my reads all you want. I've even disagreed with them already. I'm offended because Python is being casually insulting.

[Aureal]

Weuler being about as clear as mud here. Are you saying you're trying to start a wagon on Black, but one that will not actually eliminate her yet but could at a later date?

Freedom, can you describe how you're reading this game? You've been posting contemporaneously to talk with people but say you haven't read prior stuff yet.

[Aureal]

@Python do you think STD and Elements is an impossible scum team?

Subject to change if I learn more about StD's playstyle but I consider a StD/Elements scum team to be pretty unlikely. StD was the first person to sr Elements as far as I can tell and at that time the thread was busy with the Python/Weuler/Aureal fight. Furthermore the progression from "I can't get a read on you" to "I feel like town!Elements would have done this" to "I sr Elements" to tunneling on Elements doesn't feel like scum vs scum. I can see scum!StD do a slow burn push on the easy elim, I can see town!StD slowly trying to get a read on Elements, but if it was scum!StD bussing scum!Elements for town cred I feel like he could have gone a lot faster so as to not risk other people beating him to the towncred that comes from being first on the Elements wagon in that case.

A scum Dragons is probably not actually trying to get a scum Elements voted out today. Scumreading your partner while others are paying attention to something else sounds like a great time to do it. Your explanation of why they probably aren't a team made me feel more like they could be a team. They're pushing each other but not in a way that seems likely to draw wagons, due to lack of reasoning behind the read. I can't share someone's gut read and go "yeah makes sense, better get on that wagon."

[Aureal]

Maybe you need to make us a nice table, I bet Python will love it.

Not quite a table but you did technically ask for it

Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

Contrary to what others have been saying, Black has had one of the most dynamic read progressions taking into account individual actions and actions between players. Python also has good read progressions that I think would be hard to fake as scum. Aureal and Weuler have read progressions that I don't think would be hard to fake, but I to get more town vibes form Aureal's than Weuler's

I don't feel like your section on me is very accurate. I'm pretty sure you've missed some, incorrectly described some, and included some that aren't even reads at all.

Regarding Black: people like to scumread certain character traits like indecisiveness and being reactive rather than proactive, but I try not to be one of them because I am those things a lot. Day 1s are basically a crapshoot, there's going to be more leaning on other's opinions here. I feel like it'd be more informative to look at her again later.

Regarding Python: what the heck is a good read progression over going "Aureal scum" to "Aureal town" after failing to push an obviously wrong idea about me then deciding that my pointing out how obviously wrong it was was ME making a mistake??? Gonna ask a question here, do you all feel like Python's description in 472 of how they play and how to deal with them should be trusted?

[Aureal]

Human, can you elaborate more on how the VCA of Black affected your impression of her?

[Aureal]

Yeah, what on earth does "competent at scumhunting" mean? We don't know how accurate anyone's reads are at this point. You seem to be grabbing "competent at posting" and conflating it with something else. Are you seriously scumreading Black for using proper grammar and thinking about what to write?

[Aureal]

So you're scumreading Black for:
1) the reaction of others to her posts
2) thinking rather than gut-reading

As far as 1) goes, I think the content of someone's post should be what matters, not what others do. If I'd started off targeting you I guess you'd be saying the same thing about me now since I don't seem to be getting any traction when I say anything on that matter. I'm guessing people don't really want to engage with your wallposts.

And for 2), I tend to spend a lot of time thinking about my words when I've got the chance, and weren't you just thinking a few days ago that people should be thoroughly analyzing things before posting?

[Aureal]

I haven't read up yet but I feel like this is a good point.
TBH maybe it's just that I've seen TvT playstyle clashes happen a lot, but I'm never going to vote Black or python unless there's a hard guilty.

Never? That's a very extreme stance to take, particularly for someone who hasn't read the early game. Which you're taking a very long time to go about doing. Surely you can give us a few thoughts on what you've seen being posted? All you've really done is some light defense and remind people that you haven't read everything; do you not scumread anything?

[Aureal]

I feel like Python was giving Freedom a pass too though for not having caught up reading yet. It's been four days now.

What's a pfp? Guessing not personal financial planner.

[Aureal]

Not unreasonable, although I don't really know if we'd need to defend each other right now as partners since neither of us seem particularly likely lim candidates.

Who do you think are more likely lim candidates, if not you?

[Aureal]

Not unreasonable, although I don't really know if we'd need to defend each other right now as partners since neither of us seem particularly likely lim candidates.

Who do you think are more likely lim candidates, if not you?

Shrug

Yeah, that's about what I'm thinking too, so if you had a different view I would be interested in hearing it. I think Elements wore out our wagons early, nobody wants to do it anymore.

[Aureal]

Okay I really don't want to quote Black's 785 and snip it down from a phone. So I'm just going to say that the opening of the last paragraph does not seem to be true. Dragons has never said anything about me other than answering Python's question about the supposed scum slip (which I did find a bit weird since it wasn't addressed to him), let alone expressed an early townread. So where is this early on "mindmeld" with him idea coming from?

[Aureal]

If I'm town in this situation then I'm going through the thread to strengthen my scumreads. I think StD isn't confident in his scumreads at all and isn't able to do this, and my gut tells me it's because he's a wolf

I'm actually finding his lack of confidence rather townie. This game is hella squishy. I think there's been too many slots that just haven't been giving much. Granted, he is one of them but there's enough others that I think it can still be valid.

[Aureal]

Okay I really don't want to quote Black's 785 and snip it down from a phone. So I'm just going to say that the opening of the last paragraph does not seem to be true. Dragons has never said anything about me other than answering Python's question about the supposed scum slip (which I did find a bit weird since it wasn't addressed to him), let alone expressed an early townread. So where is this early on "mindmeld" with him idea coming from?

Yeah I looked back and you're right. I think I equated StD thinking you're telling the truth as him townreading you and believing your explanation regarding the wolf PM. This was definitely part of the mindmeld for me but not the only factor involved

Okay, so what's with the line about your opinion on these players having changed? I don't think your opinion on me has changed.

[Aureal]

Elements is voting Black now so both wagons should be e-2? Going to review stuff more when I get home soon and hopefully find a little more Decisiveness.

[Aureal]

Ok. Time is running out and it's time to make a decision here.

Before yesterday my most confident scumread was Elements and I wasn't even really confident in the read to begin with. But Elements hit me with 3 posts that I consider very pro-town and they made me rethink things:

StD does not feel town to me. His scum read on me is based off of my vote hopping, which is NAI for me.
269 are the only reads with anything about them other than on me (which again is just for vote hopping). StD then leans on those initial reads as a way to discredit Python saying the only notable thing he's done it to scum me, then by 570 those reads are gone and StD is now towning everyone else?
the only read StD has is that I'm scum.
596 is indeed a cop out, if no one is pinging you why not try and do something to make someone ping you like, idk, voting someone. The whole iso is bland

It doesn't give PRs more info?
It gives them more WIFOM too

They also don't know your alignment so you could be deliberately giving false information to lead them away from who you want to kill. You're also if town telling scum who you think any hypothetical protectives should target and therfore who they shouldn't kill

I'm pretty convinced these posts come from a town perspective.

Honestly those last two are just mechanics talk about why pre-emptive talking about the nightkill is Generally Not Done. Easy enough for scum to do to appear to contribute. And I'm not sure why it took Elements herself saying that she's more of a vibe reader for you to get on board with that idea, I'd already said early on that this is a thing she does as town.

Like Elements though, Weuler seems to be providing more after he was called out for not doing much. I originally wanted to lim Weuler because a) his surface level playstyle was scummy, and b) I thought his alignment would give me more insight into my scumread on Elements because it was around this time that Elements was acting her scummiest and she also put Weuler at e-1. Now that I'm starting to townread Elements I don't think seeing Weuler's alignment helps me in that regard. Seeing him flip town would no longer convince me that Elements is scum like it would have earlier in the game. Weuler has gotten less surface-levely as the day has progressed so I would rather keep him to D2 to see if we can get more of this

What sort of things are you looking at here when you think he's providing more as the day progressed?

This finally leads me to StD. I townread him early due to a couple reasons: we agreed that Weuler and Elements were kinda scummy and we also townread Aureal. My opinion on these players (especially Elements) has changed so I no longer consider this a "mindmeld" situation between us. I had to go back and read his ISO to confirm my townread and other than some vibey stuff early, I didn't really get the same read on him as I did at first. StD has been pretty surface-level this game but with just a sprinkle of effort thrown in. It seems like they are doing just enough to be considered helpful and useful, while still maintaining tunnel vision on Elements/Weuler. The whole switching between Weuler and Elements pinged me as him not really caring who gets eliminated as long as it's one of the popular wagons. He couldn't even give a reason for switching from Weuler to Elements when asked about it. My opinion of StD has changed in light of my unexpected TR of Elements, and I think this is the best option for us

If we accept your explanation that you were just confused about Dragons having a townread on me and not writing very carefully there, I'm still having a hard time seeing how you could be feeling a "mindmeld" with Dragons just because you shared two scumreads. They weren't even for the same reasons- you were scumming Weuler for the things I said and he was scumming Weuler for not being jokey enough. And you disagreed on one of the few things that he clearly stated- he had a townread on Human and you were sheeping my Human/Weuler solve so clearly had the opposite feeling there.

I also don't think it's scummy to switch between wagons on two people you scumread, especially day one.

Do you think it's not likely that Dragons and Elements could just be TvT?

[Aureal]

@Elements, Freedom's and STD's iso gives me similar vibes. I note that in my earlier games, the two scum players have given off quite different vibes

So does this mean you think some combination of those three are not scum together?

[Aureal]

I think you make a good point, black really gives me sheeping vibes. I'm also not a big fan of some of their posts, in particular 127 just seems forced and lamist.

I think some pressure is in order VOTE: black

Accusing me of sheeping while actively sheeping. Can you elaborate?

I'm sheeping? I wasn't even sure that Python wanted to actually vote you when I voted for you. His post reminded me of my earlier suspicions of you, see my earlier posts, and I think you've been flying under the radar for a while.

Which posts specifically are you referring to here in which you apparently express suspicion of Black? Anything besides calling out perceived lamist?

[Aureal]

That feels like way more analysis than this situation warrants. I don't think it's at all a given that people will still feel the same about who's scummy tomorrow after getting new information. Predicting who was going to get wagoned to end the day was hard enough 24 hours ago; day 2 will likely be a totally different situation.

Dragons is voting Elements now too, I forgot earlier. I'm going to go ahead and VOTE: Weuler which should put him back to e-2. Not because of the joke though, which could have ulterior purpose or could just be pointing out something he thought was silly.

[Aureal]

No. A joke is a lot easier to spit out than specific game content, which requires thought about what exactly you want to ask and how to phrase it and maybe even whether it's something you even want to talk about at all.

Also there were a crapload of posts in between, so even if Weuler did smash out the question in a minute or two he could easily have gotten bogged down by there constantly being new posts in Pedit. Or, y'know, just have been doing something else- I'm often peeking in just for a moment then getting back to work for a bit.

[Aureal]

I don't want to vote STD so if it is necessary,
VOTE: Weuler

I think everyone at some point has scumread Weuler and now it seems like a compromise wagon

Well what do you know, you were right Elements

STD and Weuler both at E-1, before anyone hammers Weuler we should probably let Weuler claim

Is that you saying you will hammer?

[Aureal]

This is especially problematic when Meg is town reading STD. There straight up isn't enough people who post at this time to force a third wagon even if they all somehow agreed to do it. If you're town reading STD and scum reading Weuler why take your vote off Weuler just because they're E-1?

The point is Meg wanted to make sure there was a hammer. So if someone else wanting to vote Weuler came along before she goes to bed she cleared space on the wagon for them while allowing more time for people to post.

[Aureal]

Maybe Elements beat her to the hammer? That's roughly the expected time she said she'd be back for it. Like what are you even getting at with this line of thought, are you saying Meg actually didn't want Weuler hammered all along and is resorting to shenanigans to back off at the last minute?

[Aureal]

Maybe Elements beat her to the hammer? That's roughly the expected time she said she'd be back for it. Like what are you even getting at with this line of thought, are you saying Meg actually didn't want Weuler hammered all along and is resorting to shenanigans to back off at the last minute?

Well since they posted objection retracted, but yes that was what I was implying

That seems like a pretty silly idea. She could've just not pushed Weuler in the first place. She replaced in, had a fresh slate to do pretty much anything. Pushing your partner, which I assume is what you're thinking was going on there, would be a bad idea in the totally momentumless atmosphere we had, unless you actually wanted to fully bus. Which would be especially silly on day one and obviously not the case here.

[Aureal]

Why are people confused about Elements hammering? She was going after Dragons basically all day.

Just to briefly clear up the hammer reasoning
I scumread StD over Weuler and StD had already claimed. I didn't want Weuler to claim and narrow the pool for who to kill.
I still think Weuler is probs town

I was going to push Meg today for the unvote on Weuler but guess I won't be doing that!

VOTE: python

What on earth is this about? We already went over what the unvote was about, and I expect you were likely using the same strategy by moving your vote to Black for a while so I don't think you really needed the explanation. But if you for some reason don't understand delaying the hammer by taking your vote off for a while, why vote Python I guess for also having had a problem with it??

[Aureal]

So??? Do people actually think that her naked vote for Black was somehow meant to mean that she really wanted to eliminate Black instead there?

[Aureal]

Also, what's happened to python?

Why do you think something has happened to Python?

[Aureal]

You've known for two days that that couldn't be the scum team. Feels kind of performative to vote then unvote shortly afterwards over it.

I sort of felt like this was the expected course of action at the end of day yesterday and that made me more wary of it, but with all the confTown suspicious of him I'll go ahead and VOTE: Weuler

[Aureal]

I think we can be pretty sure Meg and Dragons were town.

[Aureal]

Python, can you give us anything to rule out Black as possible scum other than your townread? I was kind of leery about how she broke for Dragons at the end of the day, like maybe trying to avert a Weuler elimination.

Furtive, you've played with Elements before, right? Anyone else here you're familiar with besides me?

[Aureal]

Completed games it's just you, Elements, Meg, STD (rip in peace)

Saw a bit of 2109 as I said and Weuler is a lot scummier this game.

Yeah, that's what I figured. I realized that you're not being the aggressive hotshot here that I've seen before, but I think that's probably just because there's nobody here you feel the need to boss around like you did with Drew and Gimli in prior games. Elements and I don't seem the sort you'd bother with and obviously you're not going to have any rapport to attempt it with people you don't know.

If I'm solving with the assumption of town!Aureal then Weuler flipping means the following:

1. Weuler flips scum, 1 miselim left
2. Flip Elements, if they flip scum then gg
3. If Elements flips town then 0 miselims left but Human/Furtive interactions in d1 no longer imply a Human/Furtive scumteam in which case flip Black

OR

1. Weuler flips town, 0 miselims left, Black trying to prevent the Weuler elim is no longer scum protecting scum so what exactly stops a tr on Black at that point?

I'm not really clear how 3 works, I gather something to do with the posts around 440? I've got COVID, can you break this down and make it easier for my tired brain to handle?

[Aureal]

What exactly do you mean by "capable" there? If you mean "would get lots of town credit for helping identify scum" then no, not very. I don't think Human was really in a place where he much needed to bolster town cred though. Seems like he was just struggling with what to do, and I don't know that being scum would change the fact that he would struggle there. If he assumes his partner Weuler is not going to make it through the game, Human probably struggles just as much there as if he's town.

[Aureal]

UNVOTE: Weuler, not in that big a rush to end the day.

[Aureal]

I dunno, I sorta feel like if it was Weuler and Elements he wouldn't still be slipping up on her pronouns??

[Aureal]

Yeah and scum now know which setup we're in, so they would know if it's safe to fake claim. If it's the one with just VT it's safe, though we could still disbelieve it. If it's the one with tracker they very well might want to fake claim to out the tracker, but that's not a given. And if it's the neighbor they probably don't bother because that just brings out a confirmable/confirmed town?

[Aureal]

o noes, someone pushing back against Python, I didn't think that was allowed in this game???

[Aureal]

Hmmm. After quickskimming to refresh my memory, the other game actually seems a good bit more dense in the first ten pages. It started out with comparable fluff for the first few pages then turned into a wagon on Dionysus for saying he didn't like making reads based on fluff. It gets progressively more dense as I and BBT replace in to join the argument over whether that's a thing town could possibly say; whereas here most posts are small and on varying topics thanks to the scattershot style of posters like Human and Elements.

Now, furtive seems to be much more inclined to look for "tells" so this may affect how he reads things. Also as he pointed out earlier, his slot was under significant pressure when he came in there.

[Aureal]

Also I didn't like how Arko and Freedom played the furtive slot. I mentioned D1 that I didn't like this slot, and I am wondering whether this is a scum slot that has ended up in more capable hands now

Just want to quickly point out that Arko was not that slot, it became Meg.

[Aureal]

The line in 347 from Weuler I like is the bit about "I'm starting to feel like she wants to hide behind me." - this feels like pretty believable paranoia toward an otherwise townread player

Hi is this a test to see if we're actually paying attention to these walls or did I become Weuler somehow?

NGL I feel kinda overwhelmed right now so I don't have much to give at the moment. Feels like Python is directing the game with a series of flips lined up and somehow people have accepted this as fine behavior and are just arguing the details about the precise order.

[Aureal]

Feels like Python is directing the game with a series of flips lined up and somehow people have accepted this as fine behavior and are just arguing the details about the precise order.

That's because I am and because the flips line up with most peoples scum teams anyways. If you have a solve that isn't Weuler/someone then speak up now so we can hash it out, otherwise I'm down to get miselimed in the 1v4 after a Weuler scum flip if necessary as long as Elements/catboi flips next

Uh huh, I guess we'll have to see about that when the time comes. I'm slightly diseased and have been trying to deal with all this from my phone so I don't bring my COVID germs to the computer room to spread to my husband, so that isn't just yet. Like I said earlier, my suspicion of Weuler was reinforced by the flips, so probably inertia keeps me there (sorry, I admit it).

Do you believe python is scum controlling the game?

I hope not but feel like it hasn't really been addressed and should be before the end? Their posting has been less WTF today apart from the whole "setting up the entire rest of the game" stuff which I feel like would draw a ton of heat in most cases?

Honestly at the end of day one I felt like I still just needed more. Didn't feel too good about any reads. And now I'm sick. Such is life.

[Aureal]

Don't worry about it on my account, you do whatever you feel like. Just putting it out there that I'm not processing things really well right now.

[Aureal]

Like I said earlier, I think Weuler/Catboi/Human has 2 Mafia

Bet?

I think so yeah.

You

think

so? Are you actually sus at all of me/Python/Black because I haven't seen that? Or is it your own alignment?

[Aureal]

I feel like you would call it a scum tell for answering with a phrase which conveys less certainty, though.

[Aureal]

the immediate 180 from weuler makes me nervous although it can come from town, I get scared of playing into scum's hands when something like that happens. I probably took the wrong approach to Weuler on entry though, should have waited to directly interact before stating a read but can't really do a lot about that now

COVID induced nap brain says this is performative hand wringing about Weuler doing what you want.

Hi there's other posts

Maybe I can read

Zzzz

[Aureal]

O no I turned into someone else again how does this keep happening

VOTE: Weuler

[Aureal]

*ponders So, what are people thinking about the nightkill choices? Do people think the scum had reads on the power roles, or did they just get lucky?

[Aureal]

And the vote on Day 1 is a lot more significant than Day 2 - keep in mind scum knew D2 the only remaining PR was a FN and thus it was completely safe to bus

Is it completely cynical of me to sense an agenda here? I don't think so...

My agenda is catching scum, sir. If you are town I will try to figure that out but making snide remarks at me isn't going to help anyone scumhunt.

Sorry, but this does seem like an over-reaction to a pretty blase comment. It's actually a fair thing to point out- I never considered how 'safe' it was to bus on D2 with the knowledge that there was just a FN left lurking around, because I'm not scum. I had to sit here and think about that a moment to figure out why you say it's safe. Citing that way of thinking shows that you're thinking deeply about scum strategy- which could well be because it's your strategy.

I don't think it's furtive here. He doesn't really need to dig in on catboi if he's scum. We're already set up with catboi and Human as the most likely Weuler partners. Python made us this nice set of directions, and nobody seemed too inclined to argue with it.

Personally I've still kind of been thinking it's Human and maybe that's part of why I was quieter D2. I felt like my reads sucked at the end of D1, then I got told Python was town so between all that and getting sick I just went into 'shut up and let Python lead' mode while trying to not be too obvious that I'd suddenly found out their alignment. Python's original solve didn't account for the possibility of Human/Weuler though, and I feel better keeping it as a possibility.

Nobody commented much on my earlier question, so I'm going to assume that nobody saw any particular reason that Meg would've been guessed to be a PR. I don't see anything there that tips me off, not that I'm the greatest at figuring out that sort of thing, so I'm going with the idea that they just got lucky rather than intentionally went for a perceived PR. Which makes me wonder what the rationale was. If they were trying to take out the most town-perceived players it's possible but seems less likely than coming after me or Python or Black. So I'm thinking it was Meg's reads that tipped it against her- she wanted to flip Human, Freedom, and Weuler. Many of us were suspicious of Weuler but Human was getting a pass from most everyone, so taking her out before she got much chance to start pushing in earnest against Human would be a sound decision.

[Aureal]

The logic about Meg's reads makes sense to me and I had kinda forgotten about it. I can see an angle where newscum Human and newscum Weuler felt threatened by the accuracy of the reads and wanted to get rid of the threat. But then why would Human and Weuler keep you alive Aureal? That part doesn't really add up to me the more I think about it. If Human is a wolf then you solved them before Meg. I guess you had backed off a little? Or it could have just been the PR guess like you said...I don't really know

Yeah, I had called them out as a team but I wasn't pushing it very hard. I spent most of D1 ineffectively vanity wagoning, first on Human even as Weuler got wagoned, then sparring with Python. Meg was definitely more assertive.

Human saying that Meg was the target because she was a replacement seems like a weird conclusion to reach. Almost like he was trying to think of a reason that wasn't "she wants to flip us"

Yeah, that was my reaction too. He's saying a lot of stuff and I just don't know where so much of it even comes from.

I have a hard time reading furtive v Cat because of the emotion involved. Idk why but my gut wants to read the frustration and anger as town even though it's probably NAI

I'm not a fan of appeals to emotion, and I'm not really sure where this one came from.

Anyway, I'm pretty sure it's just catboi here.

Aureal, are you willing to vote catboi today?

Probably, yeah. Either him or Human. Just trying to consider how the next day will go if we get it wrong.

[Aureal]

You mean do I have a stronger read on one? Not really, I keep reading and going back and forth on which would be more likely. Nor have I completely ruled out you or Black, those just seem less likely cases.

[Aureal]

Like, what even was the case on Elements? She was wrong about Save the Dragons and Weuler. Doesn't make her scum though. I've seen her do crazier stuff than the "claim or I'll hammer" that people so much didn't like.

[Aureal]

What weird associatives, exactly? As weird as stuff like Weuler hemming and hawing about whether Human slipped in saying there was 2 PR?

[Aureal]

For that matter, would a scum Elements really put Weuler on the spot there asking for an opinion on a 'scumslip' like that?

[Aureal]

I don't know if it helps anyone, but here's Weuler's voting history with snippets of his explanations. Human is the only slot he never voted.

VOTE: Elements for trying to pocket me

Arko's entrance was odd. Perhaps he is tired, perhaps not. For now I think a VOTE: Arko is not too bad.

Let's not PR hunt
UNVOTE: Arko and VOTE: Python

VOTE: Aureal is not too bad of a choice. She begins the day relatively quietly, but then suddenly comes with these posts trying to force the scum pair Human/Me. I just don't see some of the points as being genuine analysis.

Reading through Aureal's iso I don't really get a scum vibe. My earlier complaints about an argument being pulled from thin air can make sense from TownAureal being very focused on the scum pair Human/Weuler and seeing scum signs when there aren't any. I think a scumAureal could have pushed harder during the Weuler wagon. If her goal was just to lim a townie, then she could at least have voted me when the wagon started picking up.
UNVOTE: Aureal

I think you make a good point, black really gives me sheeping vibes. I'm also not a big fan of some of their posts, in particular 127 just seems forced and lamist.

I think some pressure is in order VOTE: black

I think both Elements and STD are good targets for elimination. Let's see how serious Ele is about his sr on std.

UNVOTE: Black
VOTE: STD


Looks like I was wrong about their partner, but for now I think this is a good vote
VOTE: Elements

The scum reasons aren't really that convincing. For now
UNVOTE: Elements

VOTE: Elements

Also I am voting cat because of Element's weird hammer threat yesterday. In the moment I was concerned with writing stuff before being limmed, but now I realize that threat just doesn't make sense. Seems like scum anxious to get to 2v3.

When I look at what's happened today, I see Cat exploring and hunting scum, while Furtive's reads are set in stone. I just don't see town acting like Furtive at all. Together with the play from HS and Freedom I am quite certain that I should
VOTE: Furtive

[Aureal]

I did note that Weuler stayed on Save the Dragons for the rest of the day after voting there, despite also scumreading Elements. However, I think this can also have the alternate explanation that Weuler wanted to later push Elements for the bad wagon.

Consider the vote count here. Weuler has just decided that Python's push on Black is going nowhere and moved to join Elements in targeting Save the Dragons. They are now the only two on that wagon, and the only wagon with two people. Does scum really move to join their scum partner's vote here, trying to get a wagon going all on their own rather than hitch to a townie? Or is that why we think Elements bailed to vote Freedom all on her own shortly afterward, in a "wat u doin Weuler, this is bad scumplay" move?

[Aureal]

I dunno, the more I read Elements and Weuler the more I feel like they wouldn't be partnered. Weuler's dry comment about Elements not being very serious with the vote on Dragons reads more like actual annoyance that he made a move to support her bad wagon and she went flittering off to something else and left him holding the bag. Maybe I just sympathize too much since I've experienced that feeling of suddenly Elements is doing something totally different instead of what I thought she wanted to do.

On the other hand, what's catboi up to?

Let's do a hypothetical since solves are clear what if the game suddenly turned nightless you flip catboi; town you flip me; town who do you flip next?

And what's with this weird stuff? Seems like trying to make sure people are thinking of others beyond him so he still has a chance in ELO.

[Aureal]

Well, crossed fingers that we're all done here.

[Aureal]

If catboi is town I think it's going to be up to you three to sort this out. Don't take anything for granted, don't vote out of the gate as one wrong vote is all it takes for scum to win.

[Aureal]

Night 1
usesPython sends message to Aureal
MegAzumarill jailkeeps Aureal
Weuler rolecops Aureal
Black kills MegAzumarill

I'm clearly the most popular person here, so I think I actually won.

Also really, nobody picked up on me saying I got Python's message night 1 in 1455?

[Aureal]

Good game everyone, scum made some great calls! Thanks for modding, T-Bone!

I wonder when we get to find out what ChatGPT would have done.

[Aureal]

So I think I want to sign up for the Team Mafia, is anyone else interested? Kind of intimidating to just throw oneself at the signups to end up with people you know nothing about, and I don't really want to feel like the total newbie dead weight of my team, lol.

[Aureal]

Awesome!