Open 680: C9++ (Abandoned due to mod error. See new thread)

[davesaz]

Cute pic.

VOTE: defnotmafia
Like we're gonna believe that.

[davesaz]

Be sure to give lots of strong reads. Even if they're wrong they might end up being indicative.

[davesaz]

I see Charloux's point, but the point itself is a bit more forced to me than the thing he's pointing out.
Alchemist's and beeboy's responses are both ok as an initial response.
Umlaut, I'm gonna guess that you aren't really serious. Or are you?

[davesaz]

How do you feel about FireScreamer?

[davesaz]

Thanks for that (she says, pretending that she knows anything about coding, or that she remembers anything from logic class).

I have one little question, based on the wiki. If the mod picks seven numbers and repeats are allowed, why do all of the role assignations other than T stop before 7? (E.g. V up to 5, but no further explanation of what would happen if you got 6 or 7 Vs.). Is it just presumed that the pattern keeps repeating, or is there some other rule that prevents all the letters from being non-T?

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=C9%2B%2B

That hopefully concludes the newbie setup questions.

If there were more of the same letter, the number of that PR in the game would max out according to the table, and the mafia/sk roles would still be chosen according to the number of T's rolled. So 7 D's would be 3 docs, goon, roleblocker, godfather.

[davesaz]

And yet another accidental pagetop. Why is it that I can never do that on purpose.

[davesaz]

Compensating for something?

[davesaz]

I don't think it's lurking scum. Or at least if it is then the game has something like 6-8 scum.

[davesaz]

Shannon's 108 seems sincere, and Umlaut's response seems sincere as well. I can call them very weak town from it. (burnt recently by scum looking town and thus not jumping straight to stronger reads )
Not sure what I think about tojam's post making excuses in advance about not pulling weight. That's a trope but I don't remember what it's called.

VOTE: Ircher
Obligatory comment that I need people to do AI stuff before I'm able to get good scumreads. That's not going to keep me from poking though, and it shouldn't keep other people from poking.

[davesaz]

I don't consider more than a year to be "new". Can you characterize it in more specific terms to help explain what you're seeing?

[davesaz]

I think there is often a perceptible difference between questioning someone's motives and stretching for a reason for a scumread. What would be the scum motivation to cast shade on a data gatherer when they can use their superior knowledge of the data for more accurate predictions? I don't really think it's shade (which I am using here to mean unfounded or vague suspicion). The comment shows understanding of possible scum motivations for sharing the tool, for example LAMIST.

Your intent in examining shannon's motivation seems towny. And I like to see that you looked at her history.

[davesaz]

@tojam2, if your access is limited there is this thing called V/LA.

@MOD: I'll be V/LA from Friday afternoon to Sunday around noon pacific time.

Noted. Thanks.

Don't know what cell coverage at the campground is like, nor how long my ipad battery is going to last. Not to mention being on electronics is a bad example for the scouts.

[davesaz]

I'm not away yet, that was a future V/LA notice.

I saw this post which reminded me that Ircher was complaining about the game being slow.

40 pages is a pretty healthy D1 imo. You have to have enough to make decent reads, ya know.

Wouldn't know since most of my games were either newbie or micro bastard.

It was this post Charloux. I didn't find beeboy's response forced, just facetious in a way.

I replied with a vote and this comment.

Obligatory comment that I need people to do AI stuff before I'm able to get good scumreads. That's not going to keep me from poking though, and it shouldn't keep other people from poking.

Translation: I too need some substantial activity in a game. That's not an excuse for not poking things. BTW here's a poke.

Since that point I think Ircher has been posting more. I left my vote because correct play for town is a

wagon

. I agree it's time for a review.

[davesaz]

118 is a senseless diatribe against someone who likely site flaked. From what I can tell his approach to you is straight OMGUS. Both of which indicate that my vote is probably in a good place.
I notice you have been engaging other people, which is good.

[davesaz]

Can you point to a post that you think I'm sheeping from?

[davesaz]

The difference between a slayers gambit and a reaction test is pretty small.

[davesaz]

Where did you hear about / see that term, btw?

[davesaz]

Ircher, there is a big difference in the structure of 118 and 235. Would you say the reason for those two posts is roughly the same, except for being about different players? Or do you see them as different reasons?

[davesaz]

I'm not sure how 258 makes sense as a reply to the post it is quoting. Please explain the connection.

[davesaz]

Oh, never mind. I tend to put more focus on the front end of posts and overlooked the last part.
Pedit and you beat me to it.

[davesaz]

I think focusing too narrowly on that one line in 233 is a mistake. The post overall shows Cog is considering a wide range of possibilities.
Scum could do that too, but I think it's more likely to be town.

I'm undecided if focusing on that part is scummy in addition to being unwise.

[davesaz]

Ircher, there is a big difference in the structure of 118 and 235. Would you say the reason for those two posts is roughly the same, except for being about different players? Or do you see them as different reasons?

In terms of why I voted -- I'd say the reasons are somewhat different.

Please go into more detail about the latter, in particular why you think it shows scum motivation.
Got any town reads?

[davesaz]

Ah, that makes sense. Posting someone's whole 4-post ISO without the commentary to go with it can be interpreted as lurker hunting.
While lurkers can indeed be scum, scum also hunt lurkers because they're easier targets. But you aren't really doing that here.
UNVOTE: Ircher

I agree with that analysis of defnotmafia. It wasn't obvious in the flow because I didn't check where his vote was, and I didn't bother to think about 235 that way because I still thought Ircher was more likely to be scum from earlier posting (and it wasn't clear what the real point was...). I'd be interested to see what FireScreamer and TwoFace think of this. And a bit more wagon is needed methinks.

VOTE: defnotmafia

I claim bonus points if this ends up being mafia and my RVS vote was correct.

[davesaz]

PSA I've seen a few people using vote tags to unvote. There is a tag for that. The player name is optional.

Code: Select all

[unvote]Player[/unvote]

[davesaz]

I'm back from camping and have skimmed a catch up. Green Crayons's read in seemed townish, but it would be easy to fake in this game state so it's a weak read.

[davesaz]

Would need to read more to get a feel of the shannon wagon. CommKnight's 2nd post is tinged with Amished and potential chainsaw.

[davesaz]

At first I thought the VC was wrong, but I did indeed vote defnotmafia (replaced by FrankJaeger who has not yet posted).

[davesaz]

TF. Do you think i'm smothering the game by being too active? Should I let people who are not me sort each other?

Since I'm usually guilt of the same thing, I'd say yes it's a good idea to sit back and let others talk. But the others have to talk. Typically when I do that, they don't so I talk some more.

I don't think it's too much at all. Sometimes it helps me to know what topics other players are interested in. You aren't jumping in and intercepting other investigation threads and that's good. One thing I'd caution about, some people inherently write less and it's important to recognize the difference between not having much to say vs. holding back purposefully to hide.

[davesaz]

I had an unexpected trip to the doctor. I'm fine but it messed up my plans for the day.

[davesaz]

Ive reread the first 9 pages and crammed in the rest.
First reactions
Dont like Comm. I think he figured out what people wanted to see and adjusted. Doesnt look natural.

Ircher is bothering me along with Dave.

Fire is null/town. Hes definitely looks like hes scum hunting but quality over quantity

I need to iso shannon. Probably tomorrow.

GCs posts are towny.

Toe is null.

Bee is null.

Anyone i missed it null.

Ill be up for about 30 minutes to talk if anyone is around

Care to elaborate on any of this when you're back?

[davesaz]

I can't produce the amazing original scum-hunting posts you guys can because I don't get any 'heat of the moment' periods with you guys because I'm 5000 miles (and 5-8 hours ahead) across the pond.

This excuse sounds so dumb at first glance that I think it's genuine.

If I were going to make up an excuse it would sound better than that.

Most of the times I get accused of sheeping, the true root cause is that I'm west coast and most players have had a chance to see the point before I do.
So I can buy timezones as a reason for not being in direct interactions.

On the other hand, tojam2 should have first crack at most of my late night posts. Last night I didn't produce much but other nights I have.
Further, even if it's not replying "heat of the moment" anyone can ISO analyze or try to gain information by being the first to ask a question on a topic.
So it's likely true but possibly not the whole truth.

[davesaz]

I guess dave is done with our convo?

Work meetings, drive home, dinner, scout leader. Reading...

[davesaz]

And yet another accidental pagetop.

[davesaz]

UNVOTE:
No point staying on a stale pressure vote. I need more from FrankJaeger to really sort the slot and I think it will come.

CommKnight is trying to appeal to his own authority as a reason for cases, instead of pressing the actual case. I really don't like that. (Pedit: I don't care what your rate is, though I suspect delusions of grandeur)

I can see a possible town reason for tojam to replace out.

[davesaz]

VOTE: CommKnight

Note: L-1

[davesaz]

UNVOTE:
Nah, replacements can speak. But fair warning to dismount the high horse.

[davesaz]

Fredrick E. Campbell replaces Tojam2!

Fredrick E Campbell has requested replacement.

Protip: at least skim the gamestate before replacing in.

The 2nd replace out gives me a completely different vibe that almost completely eliminates the reason that tojam2 might replace out as town.
Now it's at most NAI and trending toward scum.

[davesaz]

More? Im waiting on you

More generally, not more in response to my first reply.

What doesn't add up in the last line?

[davesaz]

Feels like grasping at straws to keep the Comm alternative alive. Really wanna just flip Comm now

You didn't quote anything so I'm not sure what you're referring to. Comm's posts trying to find an alternative to himself?

I like scum lynches but in this setup it's good to go into night with reads on everyone. Roughly half of possible setups have a SK (not mathematically half but no need to be precise this early) and a good number have a godfather. So I caution against premature hammers, especially while we have cold reads on replaced slots.

[davesaz]

More? Im waiting on you

More generally, not more in response to my first reply.

What doesn't add up in the last line?

Its kinda like fence sitting.
Do you think its NAI or "trending towards scum"?
Idk how you can call it both

All replaces start NAI, just like all reads start out null. I think it is unlikely to be town. Some reasons it could be scum. Unlike some other people in the game *cough*Commknight*cough* I don't think myself to be infallible. So I routinely give reads in ranges not in black/white.

[davesaz]

One of my soapbox things is that "fence sitting" is one of the stupidest things in all of site meta. Town by definition do not know other people's alignments and should not be 100% certain of anything unless the mod tells them in a non-bastard game.

Pedit: who is BlackVoid?

[davesaz]

How are you reading both slots?
I have dave as a scumread.
I was townreading Umlaut until he started a counterwagon to Ircher. Now I'm not sure how to read him.

I townread dave early till he left during critical parts of the game. Umlaut has coasted off of fairly meaningless information over analysis early in the game.

Did you pay any attention to my V/LA? Kinda hard to post when you're in an area which doesn't even have 3G.

[davesaz]

About the claim. I think it's just weird a 1-shot doc wants to act scummy.

Generally speaking, any town PR wants to be scumread enough to be plausible as a mislynch, so that scum won't NK them unless they catch on to the PR. I usually fail at this by being scummy enough to get run up, or by getting angry enough to make my crumbs too blatant. VT's on the other hand want to be obvtown so that they draw NK's away from the PRs, or become obvious save candidates.

[davesaz]

Note to self: who pushed tojam right before the angry replace out? Possible bus indication.

[davesaz]

Beeboy started that wagon.

But it seems like a really awkward time to bus considering there were viable mislynches happening

Not started the wagon, pressured it.

[davesaz]

[davesaz]

Can you explain the Alchemist read? I saw in your iso that you agreed with someone else but nothing independent recently.

[davesaz]

Question on Alchemist read was for FireScreamer.

PalmTree
GC/Comm
Rory
Ircher/ Beeboy
Frank/Dave/Umlaut
Shannon
Momo/Alchemist

Off the table is Rory and up. Aware that I'm likely too high on ircher based on one post but he's below the line and I'd be willing to settle for him if the case was argued well.

[davesaz]

{DarkChocolate n PalmTree, CommKnight}
{Green Crayons, FireScreamer}
{FrankJaeger, davesaz, RoryMK}
{Alchemist21, shannon, beeboy}
{Ircher, Fredrick E Campbell}

This list is pretty off-the-cuff, and in particular the distinction between tiers 3 and 4 is pretty fluid. Main points of note:

• I'm losing faith in my townreads on shannon and Alchemist after seeing the points raised against them.
  
• I've totally flipped on the meaning of Tojam's replacement, following Fredrick's replacement.

Rory, I notice you've never explained your scumread on Dave. Please do so.

You have GC in next to highest tier but I don't see any commentary or quotes of his posts. What did you base that read on?

[davesaz]

One thing I'll disagree with is the bolded line in quoted 236. What Shannon is describing here is similar a theory known as an unexpected gamestall that Aneninen* has talked about before. It is possible that she had heard of this somewhere and applied the basic idea without considering the timing of it. Given that in another post she called for a prod after only a 9-hour period on someone, it seems like Shannon thinks the game operates on a faster pace than it does, but that itself is weird considering she's actually been here a year.

So realtalk: how can we distinguish between a stall on a townIrcher wagon (because of reasons per Aneninen's theory) and a stall on a scumIrcher wagon (scum don't want to bus)?

Well for one it was still a bit early to even use the theory and the number of lurking slots contributed. But actually looking at the theory, it states that scum aren't making any big pushes because they don't need to (all major wagons are on Town). They don't want to get flak for finishing a mislynch wagon, but they don't want to take steam away from them. In a scumIrcher case I think the theory implies that scum would attempt to mount a counterwagon.

What do you think of the current state?

[davesaz]

This list is pretty off-the-cuff, and in particular the distinction between tiers 3 and 4 is pretty fluid. Main points of note:

• I'm losing faith in my townreads on shannon and Alchemist after seeing the points raised against them.
  
• I've totally flipped on the meaning of Tojam's replacement, following Fredrick's replacement.

Rory, I notice you've never explained your scumread on Dave. Please do so.

Honestly I'd support an Alchemist lynch over a Shannon lynch. I'm still seeing Shannon as a town flip. Even my look scummy to survive gambit wasn't toying with that. I honestly think Shannon is an easy mislynch. There was no real resistance against voting her and like I say, that analytical post definitely seemed more townie for that game state than scummy.

Also the case on Alchemist does have some valid points. His cases aren't exactly pushing people because they're scummy, but rather for NAI reasons.

P.S. The exam was pretty easily. We got 3 hours, I did it in 90 mins. Hahah.

Thoughts on other players? You seem to have faded since the claim.

[davesaz]

davesaz

- hints at possible scummy stuff at the start of the game, without committing to it. Seems to be checking what might work.(55-57)
- another attempt to see what might work with a vote on Ircher (112)
- dropped off the radar after wagons started forming

Congratulations, you managed to discover my availability is highly variable. What would be AI about that?

[davesaz]

333 and 514 are pretty explicit about the availability thing btw.

[davesaz]

dave, explain to me your process

because you're quoting posts from the 700s

but then also 300s and 500s are being thrown in there

I'm iso backtracking to find points of interest.

[davesaz]

What do you think of the current state?

Feels kinda hectic to me. I think the high number of replacements has kept the game slightly unstable in the sense that people have constantly had to readjust for new players. I can understand the anti-momo sentiment that's caused their wagon but I want to see them post their thoughts first before I solidify a read there. Probably gonna reread the game tomorrow and see if I can pick up on anything I may have missed the first time around.

A lot has happened since the post I quoted 315. What was the basis of your current vote? Is there anything more to it than what you said previously?

[davesaz]

*sits and waits for 2nd scum replacement*

Any thoughts yet?

[davesaz]

I do need to reread (and totally will guys and girls) but can, like, three other people also reread just to look at the pingponging of the wagons this D1?

You mean like vote trajectory analysis? That might be doable, but is it likely to help given who was wagoned?

[davesaz]

Yeah, I really want to see some reasons. We're well past the point where "looks scummy" is enough. My town reads are even doing it.

[davesaz]

@Fire, don't know if you noticed my questions a couple pages ago?

[davesaz]

This one. I'm willing to go first if this makes you more comfortable. The reason I'm asking is that you're overtly sheeping the IC atm, and that makes me nervous.

Can you explain the Alchemist read? I saw in your iso that you agreed with someone else but nothing independent recently.

Question on Alchemist read was for FireScreamer.

PalmTree
GC/Comm
Rory
Ircher/ Beeboy
Frank/Dave/Umlaut
Shannon
Momo/Alchemist

Off the table is Rory and up. Aware that I'm likely too high on ircher based on one post but he's below the line and I'd be willing to settle for him if the case was argued well.

[davesaz]

So it's part scummy behavior and part PoE/sheep, that's reasonable. (let me know if I'm misinterpreting your position.)
I'm kinda in the same place with regard to having noticed things but not made notes.
In general it's a feeling that he is taking safe mainstream positions without putting anything into it. I'm not as concerned with voting pattern but I hope to have time to check that too.
It looked like he was posting helpful stuff at first, similar to previous games, but I don't remember what alignment he was in those games and in retrospect being helpful isn't AI.

Pedit: And currently?

[davesaz]

You know your posting history better than me and I don't have time to search through all those ISOs. Why don't you do me a favor and post the quotes from you getting angry and frustrated as Town like you've been in this game if you still want to try and prove me wrong.

This was to Comm. Do you have a history of asking people if they get angry/frustrated? Do you think it is generally a scumtell?

[davesaz]

I'm in the middle of looking. Part of what I want to do is compare what I see to what DCnPT gives for a reason. Being an IC doesn't make one right. And then compare that to other people to see if their reasons are independent enough.

[davesaz]

Would need to read more to get a feel of the shannon wagon. CommKnight's 2nd post is tinged with Amished and potential chainsaw.

dave can you remind me what an Amished tell is? I always forget and there's no wiki page for it.

Strage, I can't find it either. Thought for sure there was a wiki page. Replacing in and discrediting / shading / disavowing your predecessor's actions.

[davesaz]

@CommKnight -- yes you had posts, but they are devoid of meaning. You do not give a concrete reason for the read. Even in context I don't see a reason -- if anything it looks like you're doing a manipulative cross-examination and GC handled it fine.

[davesaz]

At the bottom of page 36. I've been spiking a fever and needed to take naps.

[davesaz]

@dave:

I think there is often a perceptible difference between questioning someone's motives and stretching for a reason for a scumread. What would be the scum motivation to cast shade on a data gatherer when they can use their superior knowledge of the data for more accurate predictions? I don't really think it's shade (which I am using here to mean unfounded or vague suspicion). The comment shows understanding of possible scum motivations for sharing the tool, for example LAMIST.

Your intent in examining shannon's motivation seems towny.

And I like to see that you looked at her history

.

Why?

118 is a senseless diatribe against someone who likely site flaked. From what I can tell his approach to you is straight OMGUS.

Both of which indicate that my vote is probably in a good place.

I notice you have been engaging other people, which is good.

Why?

Would need to read more to get a feel of the shannon wagon

. CommKnight's 2nd post is tinged with Amished and potential chainsaw.

Can you provide follow up?

At first I thought the VC was wrong, but I did indeed vote defnotmafia (replaced by FrankJaeger who has not yet posted).

Why post this?

Note to self: who pushed tojam right before the angry replace out? Possible bus indication.

Can you explain why you voiced this when you did, and also whether you actually looked into it?

On point 1 it's always good imo to use someone's history as part of how you read. Why is that questionable?

On point 2, obviously I have a scumread at that point. Votes on scumreads are always in a good place. Why is that questionable?

On point 3 I'd need to do actual work to do followup.

Point 4 can be translated roughly as "who the heck is that? Oh yeah, it's the replacement of the person I'm voting". Why is this questionable? I do engage in casual banter occasionally -- not frequently but it does happen.

Point 5, no I haven't followed up on tojam's replace.

[davesaz]

You move down from your top scumread to the wagon supported by your top scumread?

You have two scumreads. One is bussing the other. Seems like a decent place to be if lynching the other is unlikely.

Pedit: Might not be able to get to that till I stop shivering, sorry.

[davesaz]

I have been sick the past several days. I don't want to replace out, figure I'll be over it soon.
I have alchemist as weak town but I'm willing to go along to progress things.

Intent

-- if I fall asleep and someone else decides to do it first I won't complain.

[davesaz]

I could davewagon

If you're gonna lynch me for having a 103 fever for several days straight for now apparent reason, go right ahead.

[davesaz]

I could davewagon

If you're gonna lynch me for having a 103 fever for several days straight for now apparent reason, go right ahead.

Way to shadecast, friend.

I never lie about RL

[davesaz]

One of these days I'm gonna be in this situation and have a dayvig. It will be sweet indeed.

[davesaz]

Taking 3 tylenol, hoping to sleep though the night, and going for a ct tomorrow. I might post on the ipad at the imaging center if I have a few extra minutes, in about 10 hours and change.

Pedit: FS is a level below conftown. Why would I want to shade that? What I am saying is that being about 50% of normal me in RL is all the defense I think I need for being subpar here.

Don't lynch today: the IC, CommKnight, FireScreamer, GC
Compromise only: Alchemist, any slot for which the main case is inactivity Having troubles remembering who that list is.

This does not mean I'm at willing to lynch on everyone else. TBH I don't remember enough to have a decent position.

Pedit 3: Yes CommKnight got to L-1.
I really must go to bed. Hasta Manana.

[davesaz]

Bottom of 48. Fever gone, scan was interesting at least. Sorry about possible overreaction. Will check state and decide what to do for catch-up. Happy that game has life at least according to page count.

[davesaz]

OK, so that's pretty interesting.
A wagon on Titus showed up. Only a real fan of 1 of the people voting it.
A wagon on Umlaut showed up. Only a real fan of 1 of the people voting it.
Titus wants my vote to go on Umlaut. Then Umlaut moves off Titus to Shannon when Titus is only L-2, with a reason of "to give time"?

Yeah, that's gonna take an actual read. I'll do my level best to see what the heck is up to change things so much so fast.

[davesaz]

OK, so that's pretty interesting.
A wagon on Titus showed up. Only a real fan of 1 of the people voting it.
A wagon on Umlaut showed up. Only a real fan of 1 of the people voting it.
Titus wants my vote to go on Umlaut. Then Umlaut moves off Titus to Shannon when Titus is only L-2, with a reason of "to give time"?

Yeah, that's gonna take an actual read. I'll do my level best to see what the heck is up to change things so much so fast.

And who are the people voting Titus/Umlaut are you a fan of?

FireScreamer and CommKnight. Should be easy to guess from my don't lynch list. (from yesterday?)

[davesaz]

DAMNIT this hydra thing. Swiching accounts is tricky stuff.

-Hapa

Standard practice is to switch accounts and quote the misposted ones using the account in the game, so it shows up in iso.
Thanks in advance and welcome to the slippery world of hydra & alt.

(if you're not new to hydra & alt, then [fingerwag])

[davesaz]

Hmm, finally caught up and that's a heck of a lot of letters claimed, after we initially started out thinking it would be relatively few.
I'm usually very suspicious of suggestions to massclaim D1, and of spontaneous claims not at intent.
with p(T) at 0.5, the 0T thru 2T setups should be quite improbable. Well, having run it though a quick calculator the 2T case isn't too extreme... All results rounded.

2T is 16% which isn't bad
1T is 5%
0T is 0.7%.

This is not to say that there is something scummy here, but it should be considered a distinct possibility.
Caveat, I'm pretty sure I played a 2T game in the past, and it's bad juju to make too many assumptions either way.

More heavy lifting needed. After dinner.

[davesaz]

Actually I probably misspoke there. Don't think I actually read the intervening pages for my catchup. I think the various claims and fake-CC reaction tests will be helpful. I have a recent Narna scumgame for reference but doubt there is sufficient material to compare.

[davesaz]

OK, so I thought Umlaut was scummy anyway. I thought the way that he claimed seemed to come from wanting to claim a "correct" number of letters that couldn't be countered. There are other possible theories but this is the one which makes the most sense. FWIW I haven't dug into what the others said yet.
VOTE: Umlaut

Yes, I can do reads. I'm still way less than 100% and was dreading staying up any later trying to do due diligence and quote stuff for reads. Didn't want an extension request for me but very relieved to have one. I know it's not very satisfying when you see someone promise stuff -- I'd stay on if I could but sucks to be sick.

Interesting juxtaposition -- my daughter has been binge watching "how to get away with murder" on nexflix in the family room. I chilled there to gather my strength and then watched a couple shows too many.

Pedit: and now I wonder if I'm being watched. (site needs a "hide behind couch" smiley or something)

[davesaz]

Two preceding points came up as pedits, omg look at the timestamps. Did it really take 15 minutes to write and pedit that?

[davesaz]

Also the setup has exactly three VTs.

Serious statement?

I'm

not a RB

. I tend to think, don't rush it and see if the other missing folks claim when their normal posting time comes (if any). Sometimes hard to tell normal times without looking at their (site) post list and mentally scanning the times. If that even appears on the query.

[davesaz]

@Titus after having trouble explaining what she meant on Shannon:

So it's pretty obvious what you're unsuccessfully trying to prove with logic.

If Shannon were scum and Umlaut is town, Shannon choosing to popcorn momo in order to slow down the rb/not rb claim would be counter productive to scum. If the RB isn't claimed scum have to shoot blind, or get into a 1v1 they might not be able to win. So scum should popcorn an active player at least. Logically this points to a weak contradiction to Shannon being scum if Umlaut is 1-shot. The contradiction can be weakened further depending on your opinion on whether Shannon would recognize the pitfall in a no daytalk game.

That says nothing about the 6 other possible ordered alignment permutations. A player pair can be TT, TM, TS, MT, MM, MS, ST, SM.

[davesaz]

Yes that's it.

What are your reads?

Continuing to ask isn't going to change what I do, other than perhaps prompt me to post replies instead of doing what I would have done otherwise like reread stuff.
In the meantime you can have the only solid reads I have.

Don't lynch today: the IC, CommKnight, FireScreamer, GC

[davesaz]

This happens every fucking game, and I'm always town.
Seriously people, I have a life, which happens to have turned to shit.

Shut the fuck up about it!!!
I will have more time to give reads if you shut up!

References to me openly not being able to keep up, and/or not having reads, are all over the last 20 or so threads in my threads list. It happens all the time. This is how I play, no compromises.

[davesaz]

I think you're misunderstanding. New posts that I need to respond to deduct from the time needed to do the thing I'm being asked to do.

I promise to do something in N virtual hours, where less than 100% of my time is being spent on it.
The actual time is going to be H real hours. H = N * K, where K is the effective work rate of real hours per virtual hour.

Time spent responding to people's accusations that I'm lying about N increases K (because it takes away productive time). My personality will not allow me to let such an accusation go unanswered. It's whether I think it's an accusation, not whether you meant it as such. Asking me again for something I've promised is accusing my of lying about that promise.

The implied timeframe is days. I said the deadline would give me enough time to do it.

I do not make reads up. I do keep a mental running total type system (which I really prefer to be evidence but can be gut) but if I've had a discontinuity (like a 103 fever is quite the discontinuity) I pretty much have to start from scratch for anything but the strongest ones. I'm not kidding about that timeframe, for the slots I didn't list. I'm not sure I even got all the replacements right.

Pedit: That was in response to FireScreamer, I think.

Umlaut: I don't give a fuck that you want a Shannon read from me. Whether you're town or scum. I do strongly question your insistence on that one read specifically. That said it's a little easier with this slot and maybe it helps town, so I'm willing to break my personal rule and shoot from the hip.

I don't think I have seen her before and IMO she's all over the place. I can't read her without

reading

her. As in reading all of her posts and all of the interactions. That running total system I mentioned before the pedit gives a virtual +/- infinity for that slot. Not a fucking clue. With meta from shared games I might be able to pin it down. Does that help?

Pedit2: The "pressure" just creates work. I gave a timeframe. If y'all don't bug me maybe things will come faster.

[davesaz]

Regarding Shannon, meaning I've possibly swung from scum to town and back and forth on her in the span of 4-5 of her posts (or more or fewer, this is not a specific statement nor do I know what post) and probably multiple times (again not necessarily accurate). It's that chaotic. I do not have a consistent trajectory on her posting. Which again boils down to a huge question mark.

Pedit: and I'm not trying to get off. Not just rushing to vomit some reads proves I'm obvtown.

I'm trying to help you to help me. I aggressively defend against perceived attacks on my integrity. And I don't need reminders.

[davesaz]

Originally @FS: Highest priority slot to update my read on, and why? Serious question, I want to maximize the value you can get from it.
In the meantime there should be adequate Titus material to do a snap read.

Pedit @Umlaut: The line you quoted from me draws attention of those who have played me before to my obvious meta. The arguments you make are related to actions, not meta, and you should realize that there are plausible or even probable scum motivations for any/all of those actions.

[davesaz]

Umm, 3 days, 193 posts for Titus. Might be too much material, but I'm going in anyway.
I can immediately say this is not replace in and avoid stuff Titus, either the scum or town variant.

[davesaz]

Umm, 3 days, 193 posts for Titus. Might be too much material, but I'm going in anyway.
I can immediately say this is not replace in and avoid stuff Titus, either the scum or town variant.

Either Titus posted 7 times between my last post and this one or I wrote the wrong number. Anyway...

Looks more likely to be town than scum. Not a particularly strong read but consistent through the entire readthrough. I went by ISO only without trying to jump into context, given time constraints. I don't remember offhand which slot she replaced into so I don't know if the consistency carries back into the slot history. One thing I thought was lacking -- a comprehensive set of reads.

[davesaz]

Titus replaced Ircher, which means my read on the slot is consistent with pre-fever times.

Pedit: thanks, I was looking that up.

[davesaz]

I was going to come back from the lock to remind everyone that CommKnight's claim was impossible to prove (existence of a full doc makes 1-shot possible, it does not confirm it) and therefore more than 3 VT's were possible. That was a pretty good fakeclaim but I always kept it as possibly fake. And by early behavior I had that slot nailed looking for a hammer.

I had tojam's 1st replacements bungee thing nailed as someone uncomfortable with scum. F.E.C. bailed quickly as scum on the game I just modded. But I don't like using mod-derived meta during games.

2/3.