Mini Theme 2158: Cards of Destiny Mafia Game Over

[Ampharos]

VOTE: Hayasaka

sup

[Ampharos]

full disclosure: I have a neighbor chat with tris.

Neither of our alignments are mentioned in the chat and (to my knowledge) there's no outside mechanical weirdness tied to it, just a vanilla neighbor chat.

If anything happens in there that gives me cause for concern, I'll let y'all know.

[Ampharos]

VOTE: Hayasaka

sup

is there any particular reason you chose this vote?

If I'm right about who Hayasaka is, they're the one person in this game I actually

know

and I wanna give 'em grief.

[Ampharos]

nvm i don't actually know hayasaka. username coincidence lolme

[Ampharos]

oh god how do i increase the number of posts per page on this site

[Ampharos]

light v read on tris for not realizing a joke rvs vote was a joke rvs vote

[Ampharos]

full disclosure: I have a neighbor chat with tris.

Neither of our alignments are mentioned in the chat and (to my knowledge) there's no outside mechanical weirdness tied to it, just a vanilla neighbor chat.

If anything happens in there that gives me cause for concern, I'll let y'all know.

my instinct with neighbour chats is usually to keep them secret until outing them has a specific purpose. what's your reason for doing so here?

I tend to dislike concealing mechanical information without a concrete reason to do so, and will otherwise default to laying all my cards on the table. Having access to a neighbor chat is a super innocuous thing that I don't really see the benefit in concealing.

Furthermore, accountability; if Tris says something compromising in the chat I can now just pop in and say "hey Tris is being weird in chat" instead of having to waste time claiming later. [that said, Tris seems like an obvious villager aorn, but whatever]

Finally:

Spoiler:

i have no idea how to use a neighbor chat this is literally my first time

[Ampharos]

what an endearing answer.

I don't mind disclosing it right away, my concern is that without a flip a good scum team can always use a neighborhood for a claim on why they both TR each other.

These things are easily verifiable. Though my concern for outing a neighborhood right away is that you either made yourselves a target for a NightKill or you'd create a lot of WIFOM as to why neither of you have been targetted for a Nightkill

the potential to be nightkilled factored into my decision. i'd prefer not to discuss that aspect of it beyond that

[Ampharos]

my townread on tris is exclusively for in-thread reasons

[Ampharos]

i too am here solely due to maria's machinations

good talk everyone

[Ampharos]

I have determined that there's not a way to up the posts per page on this website.

This disappoints me.

[Ampharos]

tris: i don't consider my own point to be particularly strong or worth pursuing with jjh not here to begin with, but i appreciate you engaging it in an honest way.

thank you. you seem like you'll be pleasant to work with even if you are actually mafia.

i like to question people to discover how they are thinking. that's more important than if they're right or wrong.

Ugh, I feel a tunnel coming, but tris is screaming scum.

@Tris - do you remember any games we've played together off the top of your head? I remember one, but I think I replaced out because I left site.

I see what you dislike about this post, but I honestly think it's more personality-indicative than alignment-indicative. Tris strikes me as matter-of-fact and somewhat formal, the sort of person who's gonna make a bunch of posts that sound awkward and perpetually be on the brink of being pushed regardless of their alignment.

I townread the failure to recognize an RVS vote as a joke because I think the default wolf mindset is that RVS votes

are

jokes, and that wolves aren't gonna read super deep into RVS votes unless they're trying to force content - and the way it came up didn't read as forced, not in the moment.

Could be wrong, obviously, but still leaning v.

The way Hayasaka claimed is super super villagery. Strong v lean. The pure guilt over possibly having accidentally gladiated this early in the game... I don't think she offers to self-vote there as a wolf. Easy call.

I liked D&D's one post for "this feels like a real thought" reasons. Thin v read there.

Don't necessarily think anyone else has done anything super alignment indicative?

Flavor, I get the impression that you're generally considered a good wolf. How does your village game compare?

[Ampharos]

I have determined that there's not a way to up the posts per page on this website.

This disappoints me.

Well In my experience, if you read the same page twice it doubles the number of posts on that page.

truly your wisdom astounds me

[Ampharos]

oh yeah y'all can call me Amy if that's easier to type. p much everyone on other sites calls me that already so

[Ampharos]

one of us

[Ampharos]

one of us

One minute I am playing Pheldagriff and the next minute it's 4am. shh

...wait

[Ampharos]

VOTE: Not_Mafia

[Ampharos]

I can assure you I'm not new. I just play a lot of vanilla games.

[Ampharos]

Actually I'm kind of baffled that that's the interpretation of my play that you came away with if you've been actually reading the game.

I can understand forming that read if you just read the "I've never rolled a neighborhood" before in a vacuum, but... I've explicitly said "I play a lot elsewhere", I've made a lot of "wolves do X, villagers do Y" type reads, etc. etc. So like... are you not actually reading my posts, or what?

[Ampharos]

re: Date's mindset on defending the neighborhood as actually being extant

Wolves can townside or scumside with mechanical information just as they can with their reads. A townsiding wolf is probably looking for maximum mechanical accuracy in order to try to buy towncred; a scumsiding wolf is just... not gonna make those posts. Let town lead themselves down the rabbit hole to their death, if that's what they're gonna do.

I PERSONALLY prefer to mechanically scumside as a wolf whenever possible, and thus my gut instinct is to lend Date some mild towncred for making a post that it's really easy for a wolf to just Not Make... but at the end of the day, it depends on what sort of player Date is. Which is not something I'm familiar with.

[Ampharos]

re: outing the neighborhood vs. just "using" it

I think honestly this boils down to a philosophical difference in the usefulness of a one-on-one chat.

I personally don't tend to form reads super well in a one-on-one setting - I prefer to take in the gamestate holistically, see how players treat other players as well as myself, and read them that way. Snap gutreads on interpersonal interactions are still nice when they happen, but I don't think they're how I solve the game best, and thus I see limited utility out of a neighborhood as far as solving the other person's alignment goes.

On the other hand, if I'm able to find tris as town, it becomes an excellent space for me to just throw my brain at the wall and see what sort of reads fall out, especially during night phases. Beyond that, though, I'd PREFER to do most of my solving in the thread.

(As a wolf, I'd absolutely be using the chat to try to pocket a town Tris. I used to play a lot of social games involving manipulation in a one-on-one setting and am pretty confident in my ability to successfully do so. But that's obviously WIFOM now that I've said it out loud, so feel free to ignore this entire parenthetical lol)

[Ampharos]

Let's put this to rest.

I've been playing casually since 2011, seriously since 2016. I'm a site administrator at MafiaUniverse.com.

Assertions that I'm new are incorrect as well as annoying, and I guarantee you that's NAI.

[Ampharos]

Marinating on the push itself.

Think my conclusion is "need to see more in order to form a read." Think it's in my best interest not to elaborate before that happens.

i've been playing competitively since before you were born kiddo

Impressive if true. I'm 24.

[Ampharos]

I don't suppose you have, uh, reads?

[Ampharos]

Brain barf about assorted players, in the meantime:

Was rolling Date's ISO around in my head for a bit, because I was somewhat annoyed that I hadn't formed a read on them yet given that they're one of the people posting actual content thus far. Think I land somewhere on the thin side of town; there's a lot of gut-level tonal things that I like, and I'm also a fan of their vote on DoctorPepper (in the "I think this is a vote a villager makes" sense). The degree of casualness with which it's dropped belies an actual stated foundation for the vote. Think the wolf version of that either looks a lot weaker/more RVS-ish or a LOT stronger/develops into an actual push, because you're either dropping a nothing vote you don't care about or you're feigning content for towncred. Goldilocksing the proper level of nonchalance is a tricky prospect to fake.

Biggest knock on them is that I don't know how I feel about the simple "why's that" to tris's vote on them. Part of this is colored by the fact that I pretty immediately caught on that tris's vote was due to failure to recognize a joke, so I could just be weirded out by the lack of immediate vocalized recognition of that... but it's the sort of cagey controlled question that wolves tend to ask to people pushing them. Certainly not out of townrange, though, and GTH I'd lean them v.

===

I want to have a read on Flavor Leaf. I do not have a read on Flavor Leaf.

I think it's probably correct for me to not have a read on Flavor Leaf. I don't think anything he's done is particularly alignment indicative. I think most of his actual game-related posting has been pretty commentary-ish, unobjectionable (though, as stated, I did disagree with the tris take), and certainly not out of either alignment's range. I think most of his interpersonal interaction has been largely non-game content, which is fine this early. I think he's not someone I'm tonally going to catch without a prior sample, as confident players are rarely caught off tone except in distinct tonal differences between alignments that vary from person to person.

I think the correct time to form a Flavor Leaf read is when he actually commits to some stance and begins actually fighting for it in some form or another.

This doesn't make my lack of a read any less annoying.

===

Tris continues to do things that solidify my townread of her. She's down in the dirt getting shit done, and genuinely seems to lack TMI of any sort. I particularly liked her questioning of... fish person whose username escapes me right now. Their comment about "why wouldn't you want to make waves" struck me as a comfortably town mindset.

===

Hayasaka is just a villager, and if they're not I'm just hard pocketed and someone else'll have to catch them anyways. Not wasting any more brainpower here for now.

===

I want to call Pooky a villager for no reason whatsoever. Maybe it's the Gamma vote? Something super brazen about dropping a blatant sheeping vote like that when basically nothing in your ISO is game-related content. Probably this is just how they play every game and I shouldn't have a read on them in either direction, but whatever.

[Ampharos]

I don't suppose you have, uh, reads?

do you want to join my mason team?

About a month ago I rolled mason in a game that wound up being much more bastard than I expected it to be.

My mason partner was a wolf.

I'm kinda burned out on masonries.

[Ampharos]

[quote="In post 227, PookyTheMagicalBear"][/quote]
this post made me realize it's 4 am

i was supposed to do shit tonight

instead i'm here

whoops

[Ampharos]

how the hell did i fuck that up

[Ampharos]

alright i'm just gonna duck out i think

think the gamma emerald walkback is thinly v? mild paranoia about it being too easily rescinded but i kinda buy that his entire wolfread was wrapped up in this "amy is a new player" paradigm so i think i'm willing to roll with it as genuine

[Ampharos]

oh boom i figured out how to autoattach signatures

i am a technological genius

[Ampharos]

Her posts

lol

[Ampharos]

also, i'm curious about the FL read. i don't really know how to read him.

I don't have a fail proof FL read in fact I don't know if I have ever truly SR FL in any of our previous games (even if he turned out to be scum).

But my readon FL this game is just based on vibe and caution if that makes sense.

Talk to me about "caution".

[Ampharos]

kinda like FL's posts on the previous page for reasons i'm struggling to articulate. might come back to it in a few hours

might not be around much for the next few days

[Ampharos]

finally googled kaname date

i sure do need to get off my ass and play that game, huh

[Ampharos]

I just find N_M will solve, will have high post density.
But will just never explain anything as town.

And I don't particularly take issue with the first 2 lines. I think is actual current lack of presence is incredibly bizarre for him.
From a crowd analysis standpoint he also isn't under much if any pressure which just strikes me as odd for a field that should be full of scum?

i'm voting him! though it was mostly a "let's see if this does anything" type of vote

i'm... vaguely aware of N_M by reputation, though i've never played with him before. if his meta is like you say it is, definitely feeling somewhat better about this vote lol

[Ampharos]

I’m cool with the dnd hydra.

If they’re red, they’re absolutely not gonna be able to deep wolf this game.

Which makes me think they’re green gonna get misexecuted.

yikes

- Can you explain your read on us?
- why would an inability to deepwolf indicate town?

- Daenerys

No FL but I think scum!you (if not faded today) will be outed somehow. Maybe through an invest or vig or something like that.

This is a town post.

[Ampharos]

Q: amy are you transparently making lazy posts to avoid prods
A: absolutely see you later this week

[Ampharos]

don't hate d&d votes

vibe i get from a few of their posts starts to veer into "what do you want from me" territory

[Ampharos]

naive question incoming, but i AM somewhat unused to playing with this phase length; typically where i play days are somewhere between 48-72 hours

is cutting d1 short particularly common?

i ask because i've been getting the feeling that this d&d wagon is disconcertingly large for "this early in the day" but idk if that's just how things are done around here or what

===

rough readslist absorbed through general thread vibes out the corner of my eye:
[hayasaka, tris]
[pooky, BEF, kaname date, flavor leaf]
[VMP, Gamma]
[jjh, Dr. Pepper]
[D&D, Not_Mafia]

ordering within brackets is completely arbitrary

i probably shouldn't feel comfortable having N_M so low? but the impression i've gotten is that even if he's somewhat of a troll who's loathe to explain things as town, he does tend to at least play the game (in a manner of speaking). here he just doesn't give a shit, and i think it's wolfy.

totally fine with this d&d wagon but not gonna hammer; would prefer more time for d1 given my current schedule constraints but i'm not gonna die on the hill of "don't hammer" because i'm not 100% sure when the load's gonna lighten (hopefully this weekend!)

i'm also feeling unusually comfortable with my top 6. maybe the game's easy? but probably not. rereading is in order

[Ampharos]

wait was FL's vote hammer?

i am notoriously bad at math and i definitely didn't realize page 29 was a page that existed

[Ampharos]

context clues seem to indicate that it was hammer and i now look like a massive goon. gg me

good time to get a readslist out, i guess

[Ampharos]

should i view his absence as not alignment indicative, then?

[Ampharos]

mm

annoying

[Ampharos]

beeboy altslipped when he mentioned phelddagrif lmao

also is day not over...?

[Ampharos]

maybe beeboy gladiated maria while we weren't looking

[Ampharos]

where i come from infovoting is a meme

so i agree

[Ampharos]

sure fuckin' hope there isn't a jester

dumb role

[Ampharos]

13p role madness... 4 wolves, probably?

7 players on, 6 players off. pooky probably the most consensus v player on the wagon, kill there doesn't really say much

jjh probably just town for that announcement, even ignoring his vote.

gut take... never more than 2 bussers, probably just one? i don't think the wagon's 100% pure but it was almost certainly town-driven

suspect pool should probably focus on the offwagon voters first though, no sense chasing bussers that may or may not exist when there's basically always more wolves in the smaller offwagon pool anyways [especially given i know I'm town, so my pool's even smaller]

so probably 2ish wolves in [kaname, hayasaka, N_M, DrP]?

if i continue to believe beeboy's just super super pure i probably start with a VOTE: Not_Mafia

reread pending

[Ampharos]

purely looking at vote placement leads me to believe the most likely busser would be Gamma or FL

[Ampharos]

do it no balls

i have no idea

[Ampharos]

DnD was obsessed with knowing why FL had a SR on tris. So this intrigues me.

honestly in a vacuum this strikes me as more indicative of FL town than tris scum

which intrigues me

[Ampharos]

Amy how is your hood with Tris going?

it is not

we talked a little overnight but i was super busy for the most part

[Ampharos]

i seem to have been jettisoned deep into the PoE while i was asleep

interesting

[Ampharos]

maybe i missed it on a sleepy skim, but: FL, how did you arrive at a "one in KD/Amy" world?

[Ampharos]

gonna take enough rain checks to open up a rain bank this game

might have time to post semi-seriously tomorrow

mostly agree with KD re: we should probably dunk DrP to kill N_M

[Ampharos]

my mind focused, my thoughts pure, i once again return to this den of debauchery and sin, prepared to let it etch its black mark upon my unstained soul

[Ampharos]

First, these.

do it no balls

i have no idea

yes. unless you gladiate a player i don't townread. then it's good play.

the only offwagon i confidently TR is Hayasaka. let me see if i can remember what my other reads this game actually are.

Hmm, I guess I missed those.

@Amy, @KD , why are you encouraging gladiate over a regular execution? I agree with Tris that it’s suboptimal unless you have a wagon with excessive resistance and yeah, don’t like either’s reaction to the gladiate.

~M

So I was under the impression that saying "do it no balls" followed by a sincere answer under a spoiler was a pretty clear indicator that what I was saying was a joke. If not, I apologize.

To answer what may perhaps be the underlying question of "why did you not immediately shoot down the gladiate plan", I'm under the impression that Haya gets a buff for gladiating, no? And I'm townreading Haya. So while I understand gladiation probably tanks wagonomics, I DO like it from the standpoint of "maximizing the performance of one of our PRs".

As I type this I realize the obvious flaw of "yeah but then they just kill Haya", but that's a thought I didn't have until literally just now.

i'm only convinced he's town because elimming him is the correct play. assuming scum is aware of that, claiming vengeful is just a shortcut to Pepper being eliminated.

if i were to say the claim makes him town and therefore we should elim someone else, then the claim no longer makes him town because i've just given reason for scum to make the claim.

So, you think we should either execute/Hya gladiate Pepper and have him venge NM/Amy/jjh, correct?

I wouldn’t support jjh. Not opposed to NM. If Amy flips scum, than Tris is probably spewed town from that, since extremely unlikely to have an SvS hood and obviously vice-versa.

@Amy, can we get a current readslist please?

And what is your current read on Tris?

~M

My reads have largely unanchored themselves due to my current thread detatchment, but let's see if I can't sort out what I'm feeling rn.

[Hayasaka, VMP]
[BEF, tris, jjh]
[Gamma, FL, KD]
[Not_Mafia]

Dr. Pepper omitted; I think he's probably town, but he's the correct dunk anyways, so whatever.

I feel comfortable putting N_M at the bottom of that list, and I feel comfortable putting Haya/VMP where I have them. The rest of the list is somewhat in flux; the second tier rises above the third tier for reasons that at the end of the day are fairly thin.

For BEF, I really really liked how he opened today; I thought the approach felt like one that's more likely a town opener than scum opener.

tris was one of my strongest early townreads, and decays largely due to PoE reasons + probably my own personal detachment from the thread in general and that read in particular. She's not

really

on my radar here; her lack of being in the top tier is largely just paranoia on my part.

jjh's position is largely due to the fact that I believe the scumread on Pooky in the announcement was given in a way that didn't look like a wolf trying to pull the "oops I tried to scumread this player that got nightkilled, guess I'm town" trick. It was a super strong read, but also written super casually and didn't try to call attention to itself. I find that when wolves try to go for that, they do it with their big flashy focus reads, not a quick one line "yeah Pooky's scum" sort of thing.

Which leaves Gamma, FL, KD largely PoEd into the next tier. Priority over the next two day phases (as I 100% believe that N_M is the correct venge here) is solving those slots.

@Amy, do you have any other games - preferably both a towngame and a scumgame I could look at?

~M

@KD, @Ampharos, why isn’t it concerning either of you that your strongest scumread is voting identically to you?

@Amy, any particular reasons you continue to ignore every single question I keep asking you?

~M

cause I keep not seeing 'em tbh. been busy lol

[Ampharos]

oh dammit i still missed one

grabbing some games brb

[Ampharos]

2nd most recent wolfgame, and probably my best wolfgame ever

most recent completed towngame, which was an extremely low-effort affair where i still managed to die on n2

most recent completed towngame in which i tryharded (died n2 again)

[Ampharos]

Spoiler:

do it no balls

i have no idea

yes. unless you gladiate a player i don't townread. then it's good play.

the only offwagon i confidently TR is Hayasaka. let me see if i can remember what my other reads this game actually are.

Hmm, I guess I missed those.

@Amy, @KD , why are you encouraging gladiate over a regular execution? I agree with Tris that it’s suboptimal unless you have a wagon with excessive resistance and yeah, don’t like either’s reaction to the gladiate.

~M

i'm only convinced he's town because elimming him is the correct play. assuming scum is aware of that, claiming vengeful is just a shortcut to Pepper being eliminated.

if i were to say the claim makes him town and therefore we should elim someone else, then the claim no longer makes him town because i've just given reason for scum to make the claim.

So, you think we should either execute/Hya gladiate Pepper and have him venge NM/Amy/jjh, correct?

I wouldn’t support jjh. Not opposed to NM. If Amy flips scum, than Tris is probably spewed town from that, since extremely unlikely to have an SvS hood and obviously vice-versa.

@Amy, can we get a current readslist please?

And what is your current read on Tris?

~M

@Amy, do you have any other games - preferably both a towngame and a scumgame I could look at?

~M

@KD, @Ampharos, why isn’t it concerning either of you that your strongest scumread is voting identically to you?

@Amy, any particular reasons you continue to ignore every single question I keep asking you?

~M

@Amy

~M

One more question @Amy, which you will probably continue to ignore and think I probably won’t notice is:

Why do you have absolutely no reaction whatsoever to either Tris voting you or FL sr you?

~M

tris's vote i didn't notice

FL's suspicion i'm aware of and am still parsing. probably going to require some backreading to form a coherent thought on it. still largely trying to get a feel for FL as a person/player so i can calibrate my "how would i expect him to behave as town" sensors

[Ampharos]

i have no fucking clue what the votecount is and as such will not be voting to try to avoid hammering until i'm good and ready

i'm spiritually on DrP, obviously

[Ampharos]

there are probably 3 wolves left

my PoE is effectively 4 people atm

this means i'm PROBABLY misclearing someone - presumably someone in that second tier, unless VMP are playing a very very strong wolfgame

if i'm not i'll gladly accept the inevitable postgame adoration and fawning but let's take it one step at a time

[Ampharos]

mm

gamma's probably town for that flavorclaim, actually

and i honestly think FL may be town too?

so where am i getting bamboozled

[Ampharos]

let me rework that readslist

==strong v==
Hayasaka
VMP

==weaker v==
jjh
BEF
Gamma

==weakest v==
tris
Flavor Leaf

==scumlean via PoE==
KD

==kill this==
Not_Mafia

[Ampharos]

if i'm lazy and lock in a scumread on KD i arrive at a team of N_M/KD and... probably one of tris/BEF. of all the people in the middle 2 tiers, they're probably the ones with the weakest/laziest reasons to be there? lots of gut impressions, not a ton of empirical analysis

[Ampharos]

whatever the team is i think we're in a pretty damn good spot if N_M's scum, or potentially a very bad spot if N_M's town

i continue to believe that he's very probably scum due to his just... abject refusal to play the game. like villagers who don't give a shit and wolves who don't give a shit look very different in their postings, ime. this is the sort of slot that flips red nine times out of ten, and you just complain in the host's DMs if you happened to roll the 10th

given that, i think the venge is the cleanest solution, cause it essentially turns the dunk into a vig shot hybrid. we're not gonna have full wagonomics on this venge, i'd rather save the more active slots for days where we're actually gonna vote for who to kill

[Ampharos]

i have thoughts on tris but ask me again tomorrow

[Ampharos]

gonna take a breather

any other insomniacs feel free to combo break me

[Ampharos]

you know what? proud of FL for getting a good night's sleep for once

think imma just check back in tomorrow

[Ampharos]

idk i think she might be wolfing

[Ampharos]

i'm up for like 15 more minutes to answer any pressing questions

[Ampharos]

I also don’t like that in conjunction Not Mafia is the vengekill choice, but they scum read KD, not necessarily NM.

N_M is a pretty high confidence scumread? i thought that was pretty explicit

KD is mostly just "the one other person i can't find a reason to townread"

[Ampharos]

lurkers who are town tend to produce at least A thought at some point - maybe very early on while they're still trying to care, maybe when getting wagoned lights a fire under their ass. N_M has NOTHING, and is actively refusing to give anything. it's an empty slot in the way that villagers almost never are

also someone said earlier that he HAS displayed a capacity to produce some degree of content as town, so i don't buy that this is NAI playstyle stuff

[Ampharos]

hot take 3rd parties are lame and i dislike assuming their existence by default

[Ampharos]

13p role madness, if balanced well, should almost always be in the ballpark of 9 town 4 nontown, imo; you can make an argument that i should have specified "nontown" to avoid counting out the existence of 3rd parties but like. whatever.

i can't even fathom what possible benefit scum!me could get from trying to OVERrepresent the number of wolves in the game, unless she were trying to widen the PoE - and i think the absolute dearth of true scumreads i have sort of disproves that line of thinking

if anything, i've seen wolves UNDERrepresent antitown numbers to breed complacency, but assuming the reverse is kinda nonsense when the entire rest of my play runs counter to that

[Ampharos]

Also, 4 scum and DnD still goes down Day 1?

I like that you brought up your mindset regarding that there, though. Makes me care a less about the original post being an issue

i mean, N_M is essentially an empty slot, so if he's a wolf...

i see your point, though

[Ampharos]

tris talk me through your progression on me

[Ampharos]

re: whatever question VMP asked me about my detatchment:

it's p much entirely due to the limited time i've had to engage with this game. it's hard to truly feel plugged in when i'm checking in like once/twice a day

[Ampharos]

re: NM venge:

from what i can tell, a good chunk of the game (myself included, obviously, so i'm biased) is scumreading him, but furthermore i would ASSUME that even those who aren't recognize that he's going to need to die at some point. he's too null to be left alive forever, we need the flip

and if we're gonna be flipping him anyways, i'd rather do it on a day where wagonomics aren't really a consideration, where we're just turning around and straight-up shooting his ass

if you think he's town and/or have a solid scumread elsewhere, that's obviously a different matter; if you're pushing against it because it's "low info", though, then when do you ever expect that kill to be high info? if he's a wolf you're giving him a free pass to endgame for literally not playing the game

(furthermore, i don't actually believe this, but: if for some goddamn reason he IS the jester, venging him is quite clearly correct)

[Ampharos]

re: my ranges from the games i linked

somewhat frustrating that the one game that didn't get read is probably the one that's most applicable to this game

this link should go to my iso in that game, hopefully it works

[Ampharos]

tris talk me through your progression on me

I feel like I've been more transparent on my progression on you then you have. You still haven't told us why you've shifted on me. But, I'll explain anyway.

At the start of the game, you seemed fine. I liked many of your observations, but I didn't think that any of it wasn't something mafia couldn't be just as likely observe. So, I was reserved in my read. Then, this post kinda pinged me as town, so that's when you became a light townread. Do you think you could articulate what you were thinking there? I know you were a bit busy following that. But, when you did post during the start of day 2, it just felt uninspired. And, I was losing the bit of towniness I had picked up from that one post. And, that's when I was starting to think you might be scum. It was a combination of POE and you not following up with anything more I thought was towny. Then, when you came back, I had mixed feelings. There is something in those posts that felt like a natural movement, but the detatchedness you described really matched up with the way I sometimes can get when I'm mafia. It happens as town too, but in that case I recover easier than as mafia. Of course, you are not me, but that's what I was thinking of. It has especially bothered me how you can't seem to explain why your read on me has changed. It looks like a scum who needs to scumread someone, but can't figure out a reason. That's what a lot of it comes off as. Someone who is having a hard time making reads because they already know what's true.

Yeah, I'm being a cagey asshole, but it's necessary for what I'm trying to do.

Quite frankly, the reason I moved you down was because I found your scumread of me to be underexplained and rather abrupt - you went from lightly townreading me on D1 to scumreading me on D2 for reasons that I couldn't really find other than "she isn't here enough". Given that quite a bit of the rest of the thread, most notably the very loud and very influential Flavor Leaf, was scumreading me as well, this set off red flags; to give me a thin townread only to flip it around when I suddenly look pushable is... not a good look.

The reason I wasn't forthright about this when I initially mentioned moving you down was because I knew that me posting 50 times in a row was gonna force people to update their read on me one way or another, and I wanted to see where the threadstate would settle, and where you would land in it. Unfortunately, less has changed in terms of threadstate than I'd hoped, since FL is still pushing me, but even given that I don't necessarily hate your response here? I think the way you're equating my detatchedness to how you play wolf is a read that comes from a villager a fair bit more often than it comes from a wolf - I think wolves

generally

rely more on universal tells, because a lot of the time they're too self-conscious to say "this is how I wolf" while actively wolfing.

So I guess I'm back to NM=>KD=>cry because I'm bad at the game? I should really figure out if TRing FL is actually a good idea or not.

[Ampharos]

BEF even commented about how they changed their mind when he said their 1053 or whatever post it was ruined it

1053 just seems like a joke to me?????

The timing was way off for me to take it as just a joke.

Yeah, it was an odd flex.

~M

I maintained the maximum online rating in Mario Kart Wii for about a month straight using exclusively the Wii Wheel.

I was one game away from Mythic on MTG Arena before I went on a 6 game losing streak and then rotation made my deck terrible.

I can bend my pinky all the way back to touch the back of my hand.

My life is nothing if not a series of odd flexes.

[Ampharos]

oh right tris wanted me to articulate why i tr'd fl for that one page

lemme refresh my memory

[Ampharos]

ah yeah that's right

there was an undercurrent of low-level annoyance beneath his posting; think he was lowkey frustrated that his contributions thus far had been misunderstood/downplayed, in a "why do you not get what i'm talking about" kind of way

[Ampharos]

just remembered that i was ALSO asked why i had VMP so high in my readslist

the short answer is that they give way too much of a shit about me answering their questions for them to be a wolf just asking questions for the sake of it

and it would be somewhat different if they were exclusively deathtunneling me but their focus has been broad enough that i think they're legitimately trying to solve my alignment

like at this point they're hayasaka-tier obvious town fmpov

[Ampharos]

HURT: Not_Mafia

this is a neat tag

[Ampharos]

i have literally been given that exact read before as town

[Ampharos]

i continue to harp on it because I'm legitimately annoyed by it

(and also because i keep getting asked about it)

[Ampharos]

FL, gun to head does N_M flip town or scum? "null" not a valid answer for the purposes of this exercise

[Ampharos]

for the record i also do not want ampharos shot today

i ALSO do not want KD shot today, mostly because i want N_M shot today

[Ampharos]

I'd rather have more info down the line when lynching between Amy and Flavor Leaf

?????

[Ampharos]

let me rework that readslist

==strong v==
Hayasaka
VMP

==weaker v==
jjh
BEF
Gamma

==weakest v==
tris
Flavor Leaf

==scumlean via PoE==
KD

==kill this==
Not_Mafia

if i'm lazy and lock in a scumread on KD i arrive at a team of N_M/KD and... probably one of tris/BEF. of all the people in the middle 2 tiers, they're probably the ones with the weakest/laziest reasons to be there? lots of gut impressions, not a ton of empirical analysis

@Amy, are you ever planning to address the clear contradictions between these two posts? How BEF is 4th in 1046 and in your PoE in 1047? Considering these posts were back to back, this really doesn’t make a lot of sensr.

Number of times, I’ve asked Amy this question and failed to get a response:

Count: 2, 3 if I need to ask it a fourth time.

Yes Amy, if I literally need to keep a running total of how many times, I need to keep asking you the samegoddamned question before you actually answer it, I definitely will.

~M

i apologize but it's easy for me to miss things when i come back to 10 questions from you every time i leave the thread

trying to figure out how to articulate my internal process, because that string of posts was very much thinking out loud stream-of-consciousness type shit. that second post was largely approached from an angle of "if my bottom 2 are correct, where's the third?" and i find that the answer to that question

usually

isn't "the other person at the bottom of the list".

thinking through my list led me to realize that tris/BEF were the reads i had that were most tied to "vibes"/vague feelings of villageriness, whereas other people on the list had more concrete reasoning even if placed lower. so if i'm looking for a misclear, those sorts of slots are the slots i approach first, which is how you get from 1046 to 1047

readslists are a crapshoot anyways and should be used more as a tool for thought organization than objective analysis. honestly if you ever find my strictly following my readslist to the letter you can dunk me on the spot, because my progressions are WAY cleaner and "logical" when i'm mafia

[Ampharos]

i don't think Amy's posting on D&D particularly attaches them as partners. it seems like she could have done something besides vote NM to get a stronger counterwagon for D&D, but that's not the supreme indicator of alignment i would like it to be. she might just have not predicted D&D would need the help. still, it's pretty much the same as what i remember my own feelings about D&D being which is why i'm unsurprised to see the two of us lumped together this day.

Amy, i think it would be faster to ask than to try and comb through your ISO again for it, but what was the reason for my fall in your reads, again?

more an abundance of villagery behavior on the part of the rest of the game than anyone else.

i look at other slots, i can think of a couple of decent reasons to call them a villager. i can approach the game from that angle

i look at your slot and i get... not a ton. very medium feelings. your posts are fine, i find myself nodding along plenty, but there's nothing i can find that i could point to and say "i don't think a wolf could/would do this"

hence, PoE

[Ampharos]

i don't think Amy's posting on D&D particularly attaches them as partners. it seems like she could have done something besides vote NM to get a stronger counterwagon for D&D, but that's not the supreme indicator of alignment i would like it to be. she might just have not predicted D&D would need the help. still, it's pretty much the same as what i remember my own feelings about D&D being which is why i'm unsurprised to see the two of us lumped together this day.

Amy, i think it would be faster to ask than to try and comb through your ISO again for it, but what was the reason for my fall in your reads, again?

more an abundance of villagery behavior on the part of the rest of the game than anyone else.

i look at other slots, i can think of a couple of decent reasons to call them a villager. i can approach the game from that angle

i look at your slot and i get... not a ton. very medium feelings. your posts are fine, i find myself nodding along plenty, but there's nothing i can find that i could point to and say "i don't think a wolf could/would do this"

hence, PoE

[Ampharos]

Why would KD be shot today? Who is even advocating for that?

~M

a solid chunk of the game (or at least the louder portions) seem to have established some dichotomy between KD and myself, which is what i was speaking to

[Ampharos]

Let's put this to rest.

I've been playing casually since 2011, seriously since 2016. I'm a site administrator at MafiaUniverse.com.

Assertions that I'm new are incorrect as well as annoying, and I guarantee you that's NAI.

Yeah I don’t think someone of this experience level would be self-conscious like I was initially thinking, or feel much need to play defensively regarding mechanics
UNVOTE:

hmmm

I think my feeling of weirdness re: Gamma is more that I didn't read Ampharos' post as self-conscious at all, and even if you assumed that she was new to mafia, I still wouldn't have read her posts as self-conscious, so calling them such seems off to me. Iirc there were several people calling Ampharos towny for outing the neighborhood,

so it feels like this could be a shallow attempt to prevent her from becoming a universal TR, if that makes sense

This post still bothers me.

~M

Why?
Tbh that’s probably a decent point for Amphy!town, it reads as TMI

It might if it wasn’t so extremely over the top.

~M

elaborate on this?

[Ampharos]

ugh. i'm gonna be light SRing Ampharos for the whole game, partly in reaction to the townreads she's accruing. what makes this difficult is she's working with a different site culture than what i'm used to. and her play looks high-level, which isn't AI but does always succeed in pressing the paranoia button.
i agree with her takes, i think. to echo her thoughts on Flavor Leaf, i need to see her really push something.

you know, I think I have to take a step back a bit on my ampharos read as well. I thought her presence in the beginning of the game was strong and initially townread her for that, but it’s dropped off a lot since then so she’s probably now close to null for me.

- Daenerys

This post looks anti-partnery for KD.

~M

i... actually agree with this

alright so i'm bad at mafia

and if N_M's town then i'm

really

bad at mafia

where am i fucking up here

[Ampharos]

bleh

i'm stuck in this mental rut where i really REALLY wanna see a Not_Mafia flip and it's monopolizing my entire worldview

because if he's town, there are two players in this game that i'm just HARD misreading

and i don't like that.

[Ampharos]

for the record i also do not want ampharos shot today

i ALSO do not want KD shot today, mostly because i want N_M shot today

i think i would enjoy being scumpartners with you. handshakes for not wanting each other shot today.

and i suppose it is worth noting i also really like how Pepper is handling his shot.

wolfing with me always tends to devolve into either conversations about music or arguments about pokemon

which, for the record, i view as a good thing

also yes i think DrP is playing this correctly so that's nice

[Ampharos]

ftr FL's response to my question is very uninspiring if N_M's town, and actually somewhat comforting if N_M is scum

quite frankly i think scum!FL would have bussed scum!N_M to hell and back in this gamestate, and i think this awkward dancing-around-it that he's doing is just NOT the approach he would be taking as a partner

if N_M's town, on the other hand, i worry that FL's a wolf caught in a spot where he's not quite sure how to position himself around the inevitable flip of a low hanging villager, hence all the hemming and hawwing

obviously this is all incredibly conditional

but that was ultimately the point of the exercise - to try to get him to take a hard stance before we see the flip

[Ampharos]

what the fuck did i miss

[Ampharos]

whatever.

my role is even-night-only and i would very much like to use it

if N_M flips town feel free to turbo me tomorrow

but let's at least get some value out of my slot

[Ampharos]

literally what benefit do i get as scum from buying myself a singular extra day phase

killing

Not_Mafia

of all people

use your head dude

[Ampharos]

i haven't fully backread yet but i did notice an assertion that i haven't given a hard stance on N_M's alignment

which is patent absurdity

he's my only actual real scumread. i think he will flip red, and i want him shot today. i feel like i have said this multiple times, how much more explicit can i get?

[Ampharos]

Powers through the night, kills me.

sit your ego down for two seconds

you're far from the only one scumreading me in this slot. killing you would not in and of itself be a win condition for scum!me, because VMP and Gamma and probably others i missed also seem to want me dead

[Ampharos]

Amy I am tilted on your behalf right now.

thank you beeboy very cool

[Ampharos]

ugh sorry i'm being an ass

[Ampharos]

I think that her posting until recently has been dreadful

thanks.

@Amy, why do you think FL’s read on NM is weird? I think thinking he’s a null makes perfect sense based on what Pepper has posted about NM playing the same way as PR

i'm unaware of this post's existence and was thus operating off the assumption that FL was as well

furthermore i don't think the word i would use is "weird", just "noncommittal" - which, in this scenario and given my read on flavor leaf's personality/playstyle, is something i find concerning if N_M flips town

address my concern about your lack of scumreads
NM has to have a partner, who is it

yeah of course i know he has to have a fuckin' partner

but i dispute the notion that not having enough scumreads is inherently wolfy when i think i've given something resembling an explanation for my townreads on other players at varying times. if you think i'm just struggling to bullshit reads, sure, but then point me to where you think my reads aren't genuine and we can talk about em.

my instinct in looking for partners here is to look for people who were soft pushing/sussing N_M while still keeping options open should another viable venge target open up; i doubt they would be the ones actively leading a venge wagon on another person given the (prior to my whole thing exploding) sheer likelihood of N_M's flip happening

i could not tell you which specific players this refers to without backreading

and i'm probably not doing that backreading until i see an N_M flip

[Ampharos]

is "this is how N_M plays as a PR" a viable read in a

role madness

game

[Ampharos]

what the fuck are you even talking about

[Ampharos]

thanks for quoting that post now i'm mad again

i haven't been "telling people what they want to hear" i've been answering the 5743687168 questions posed at me and playing the damn game

[Ampharos]

speaking of questions i would answer your most recent one but i literally don't even know what you're asking

[Ampharos]

i will admit that i was already in a bad mood for OOG reasons

but jesus guys.

[Ampharos]

oh no wait i get it

you think i'm scumreading flavor leaf

and thus you think i shouldn't be wanting n_m dead based on my assessment of flavor leaf

which is... not what i meant at all

there are things i dislike about flavor leaf's posting but i THINK i still have him gth town.

[Ampharos]

i really feel like amy is town actually. after reading her iso. day one is still whatever, but my gut is telling me that today's posting comes from town. i'm actually townreading her more than i have any point before.

ahhh, but there's still that paranoia that she's pocketing me ahhhh.

1222, 1239, 1298, and 1299 especially are the sources of the townread. it just seems so genuine.

And that’s why I made the heal but FL’s post got me thinking about why town!Amy would be pushing a venge on NM this hard if she truly believes scum!FL busses him. I agree she does sound genuine but that can be faked. However, if she honestly believes scum!FL busses scum!NM here, then she should be interested in trying to re-evaluate that some more, because it reads like she srs FL regardless of NM flip but she’s still adamant about flipping NM.

~M

oh no wait i get it

you think i'm scumreading flavor leaf

and thus you think i shouldn't be wanting n_m dead based on my assessment of flavor leaf

which is... not what i meant at all

there are things i dislike about flavor leaf's posting but i THINK i still have him gth town.

[Ampharos]

Took the weekend off. Needed it. Think I should be a lot more clear-headed now.

Flavor Leaf claim is certainly fakeable but it's not something I'm concerned about right now because it should make itself fairly confirmable sooner or later. If I get venged for some reason I promise to be a nuisance from beyond the grave if this chat's real - hopefully that'll at least get us a confirmed villager out of all of this (and hopefully the lack of me being a nuisance confirms a wolf, should that be the case).

Claiming that me hypothesizing 4 wolves is a TMI slip is dumb because that would require there to actually

be

four wolves, which it seems I've been hard shot down on (and I've pretty much coming around to agreeing with those who are doing the shooting).

Requesting that we hold hammer until at least the end of tomorrow. Would like to spend some time realtiming.

I don't think I was super crazy about tris's reaction to her/me suddenly being sussed as a team? And I think I pointed out earlier that her flip on me is super weird.

[Ampharos]

was gonna end that post more conclusively but i ran out of brain

6 am posting liiiiiiiiiiiife

[Ampharos]

gamma apologies if i missed it but what is your current read on N_M

[Ampharos]

ok thanks

followup question: why is this, as far as i can tell from ctrl+fing your iso, literally the first time you've mentioned him all game

[Ampharos]

no nevermind there was a typo

disregard the above gg

[Ampharos]

if it's not evident i may or may not still be waking up

[Ampharos]

ok update it IS your first mention of an actual read on the slot

and p much all of your previous mentions involved trying to push a different venge (primarily me)

so that's, yknow, fun

[Ampharos]

I really hope Gampharos is scum the string right now because i can’t not see it that way.

it's ok we can still be friends

[Ampharos]

ugh i never know what to make of selfvoting

[Ampharos]

People who self vote typically do it as both alignments.
Not to mention it isn't a self vote, every scum technically is only trying to appeal to exactly DrP right now.
The immediate future cares about no one else.

i mean he's literally saying "shoot me"

that's effectively a selfvote

[Ampharos]

but yes i agree with people who do it doing it as both alignments

that's why it's annoying to have to read lol

[Ampharos]

i mean, there's an argument to be made that it's just theatrics, that it's more likely to be fake by the fact that there's literally only one person that matters and appealing to the crowd is inherently going to have fewer consequences than it otherwise would

but i'm not married to that at all

[Ampharos]

hrm

i wonder to what extent a mass flavorclaim is a bad idea

[Ampharos]

like sure "flavor doesn't matter"

but there are quite a few possible flavors of "doesn't matter"

i find it extremely unlikely that flavor was handed out solely via rng

[Ampharos]

i possess a nonzero amount of tarot knowledge

i blame my girlfriend, mostly

[Ampharos]

lol get good

anyways my role works fairly well with my tarot so i suspect there's always at least SOME degree of cohesion there

[Ampharos]

that actually makes it extremely interesting that gamma claimed to also be the devil

in tarot, the arcana have both a positive and a negative meaning depending on which way they're flipped (tarot readings are weirdly complicated but whatever)

based on that it's entirely possible for gamma's claim to be true... but then, is d&d's role based on the negative interpretation and gamma's on the positive? or vice versa? are all the scum roles this way, or is it just a one off, or is gamma full of shit and this entire line of questioning is moot

i guess i know what wikipedia rabbit hole i'm going down tonight

[Ampharos]

sorry in advance if i break your setup maria

[Ampharos]

I am the Emperor

yeah that tracks

[Ampharos]

does everyone in this game have a goddamn alt

[Ampharos]

are you gonna claim or what

[Ampharos]

i'm sorry did you just softclaim the 4 of cups in a game where, as far as i can tell, every claimed/flipped player (+ myself) are major arcana?

[Ampharos]

it sure as hell doesn't seem town motivated

[Ampharos]

if he's jester i feel like the venge probably works around his wincon so

[Ampharos]

serious question what enjoyment do you derive from "playing" like this

what do you get out of it

[Ampharos]

If we venge in Gamma/NM and get a scumflip I think the alignment of the other should be pretty easy to discern pretty quickly.

[Ampharos]

kinda want tris to flavor claim

only held back out of concern of potential negative consequences of doing so but

think that cat may already be out of the bag

[Ampharos]

Why are you not asking in your “neighborhood” then?

...good point

brb

[Ampharos]

can you vote no elim under a gladiate?

also scumslips aren't real

also also tris and i apparently have the same role flavor

so that's interesting.

[Ampharos]

A no lynch this early in game is lame.

Nobody's seriously floating no elim as an option.

The situation is this:

Hayasaka is probably town and is proven to be the gladiator.
DoctorPepper is either scum (he isn't) or he's vengeful town.

We vote out DoctorPepper to confirm the venge claim; that much isn't really being debated.

Flavor Leaf claims to be a double voting medium; his first vote roleblocks its target that night, and his second vote marks its target to be added to his medium chat, should that target be daykilled.

There's no question his second vote will be on DoctorPepper, since Haya's never getting voted here; the issue is the first vote. He was thinking he would have to vote and thus roleblock Haya to ensure the medium on DoctorPepper; however, no elim appears to be a voting option under Haya's gladiate. Given that, it's almost unquestionably better for FL to vote no elim first and DoctorPepper second, leaving Haya free to use whatever night action he has while DrP still gets medium chat.

[Ampharos]

poe at this point is like. n_m gamma tris and then kill FL if he's alive at lylo? something along those lines

if gamma flips town with d&d's flavor i kinda wanna turbo tris

[Ampharos]

hm.

[Ampharos]

i should elaborate on how the claim came about

i asked her in the hood what her flavor was

to which her response was "are you <flavor>? because that's what i am"

so if she's scum she KNEW she has the same flavor as me and claimed it anyways

i think THAT's what i find interesting about the situation

and i'm not 100% sure how to parse it

[Ampharos]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lACSvDOLhLU[/youtube]

what if we all took a step back and chilled a bit

[Ampharos]

what if amy doesn't fucking know how bbcode works

i'll just hyperlink instead

[Ampharos]

oh it got unlocked! was gonna be tragic if i didn't get to postgame at all

gg all, thought the scumteam played fairly well even considering the result. FL did a good job in making a terrible deathtunnel look genuine - i think i could have caught him after the tris flip, but given that the tris flip kinda required my death as a prereq...

and yeah, the setup was pretty heavily townsided, but them's the breaks sometimes. still enjoyed the game, ty maria/dunn for hosting

[Ampharos]

i almost had to believe the claim because i figured it would be tested. and i knew after my N3 death Nancy would be looking for FL relaying a specific private conversation between us, so she'd be able to prove i wasn't in a topic with him. though, FL's ability to wiggle out of a bad situation can't be underestimated.

i protected Haya n1 thinking he might be the kill, and FL because i thought he was a likely kill target if town but also didn't trust him at all. between the two it was obvious that FL was the one to flip. i was trying to bait a kill n3.

credit to Fish and Haya for obvtowning so early they stayed entirely out of the PoE. also thanks to Nancy for townclearing me on D&D interactions. my goal this game was to survive long enough to die on my own and flip a scum, which i did do, even if my reads weren't too great.

<3 I had you as townlock for much of the game, now if only someone could tell me how to read FL . . .

biggest things i'd ding him on:

the earlygame, where he expressed a scumread on tris... but then parlayed this into pressure on

me

for not agreeing with it, rather than pursuing the scumread any further

and

the dichotomy he established on d2 with me/kd as the "not towny" players, attempting to influence the venge pool and expand it past N_M, who'd be an easy ML to get later and an inconsequential villager to leave alive otherwise

and

let's not forget that i had the correct read on his initially relatively noncommittal stance towards N_M on d2, before he buckled down for the hard defense

not to take away anything from FL's play! the tunnel was well-executed in that it had me reluctant to scumread him, and i think he certainly makes it deeper in the game if i don't out tris

[Ampharos]

also i want it on record that pregame i thought beeboy was an entirely different mafia player who sometimes goes by hayasaka, and only backtracked on this when he started posting... and then was completely baffled when he claimed to know me anyways lmao