Open 878: Scarfolk Council | The End

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p sure I caught one already VOTE: alianna

always scum

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also lol get pagetopped

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VOTE: andante

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p sure I caught one already VOTE: alianna

always scum

also like, alianna isn't even talking?? how did you catch alianna?

I like how skitter/invis commented on what I was saying, but mena just ignored my takes

you're caught up right?

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also hi skitt, hi drew! I'm reading the first couple of pages now

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umlaut, I also have a regular weekend V/LA pls

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i can kinda see andante/alianna scum together

I can also see where Alianna-scum is coming from.

I don't see alianna scum yet

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p sure I caught one already VOTE: alianna

always scum

also like, alianna isn't even talking?? how did you catch alianna?

I like how skitter/invis commented on what I was saying, but mena just ignored my takes

you're caught up right?

yeah? what up? I have all the rvs locked in my brain!

if you're caught up then I feel it should be fairly easy to understand my vote without me needing to spell it out

sorry I'm just like, people saying I'm town and meta in the same sentence? I'm calling it out cause you can literally find any kind of game from me to prove whatever "meta" you're trying to prove.. plus I'm like obviously town here so... no free passes to tr me!

You think you're obviously town here?

I fully believe that town!andante would believe that she is obvtown here fwiw

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I fully believe that town!andante would believe that she is obvtown here fwiw

I mean, how am I not obv town? it shouldn't even have to be "if town X" like yo... I been the only one talking, me talking created this random wagon on me, that no one wants to talk about, yet they were happy to discuss other wagons that alone should scream I'm town, and that's not even talking about how I've been the most active generating original reads... just sayin

Because talking a lot does not a townie make. You have like 2 votes and are barely a wagon, there is no particular reason that people should comment on that or on any given wagon. Sometimes people comment on shit, sometimes not, often they do it own their own timeline if they want to

Lack of comment so far means nothing given how small the wagon is

like mena, did you just toss alianna on e-1? and not say anything to speed hammer this? cause all I see are lots of votes there already...

I'm not sure if you're implying anything with this post, but no, I am not intending to make a certain mistake twice.

I thought mena tossed the wagon on e-1, it was technically e-2... I almost joined right before it and yeah, but mena is chill kinda was like "even though I SR andante (or whatever).." and still stood up for me with the comment from skitter

I had no idea how many votes alianna had and also I’d def also make that comment if I were scum

like mena, did you just toss alianna on e-1? and not say anything to speed hammer this? cause all I see are lots of votes there already...

I'm not sure if you're implying anything with this post, but no, I am not intending to make a certain mistake twice.

lmao please tell me this doesn’t mean you accidentally self-hammered alianna??

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will catch up later today, busy weekend

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bros… how do I have like 5 times the posts as the rest yall… wtf? and yall think voting out the person actually posting is a good move???

I was coming round to going elsewhere maybe, but then you pointed this out and now I’m on “definitely an excellent option”

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VOTE: Doctor Drew this is a good vote for now

Bruh

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Lol yeah I think viz is town which also makes me feel better about skitter who felt weird a couple of pages ago (will quote where and say why in a sec)

Andy could be scum and is still a solid equity lim, then aisa isn’t a vote I hate but she’s also had some maybe solving? And the enchant replace is just *french kiss* for a slot that’s a good candidate if there’s no-one looking really actively scummy by EoD

Oh, also maybe this is the first game where I think dunn is actually town?

Sheep probably town, csf maybe town, implo, woo both very null, and finally cephrir… is in this game apparently?

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If I’m putting that in a more popular and easily digestible format I guess it would look something like this:

Town?
Viz
Dunn

Town??
Sheep


Town???
Skitt
Csf

Various shades of null
Implo
Woo
Ceph

Scum??
Aisa

Scum?
Andy
Enchant

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Andante (3): skitter30, Menalque, Invisibility

this wagon composition is wild..

I think the wagon comp is great, that's partially why i like it

Skitt, why did you say the wagon comp was great here?

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Andante (3): skitter30, Menalque, Invisibility

this wagon composition is wild..

I think the wagon comp is great, that's partially why i like it

Skitt, why did you say the wagon comp was great here?

B/c it's me + vizzy (who i townread p strongly) and i didnt hate that u were on it.

Where did i feel weird?

no, this is where you felt weird and now I feel better about it

I thought I was included in the wagon comp being great vs just not hating me joining and I didn't think I'd done anything yet that would make you read me as strong town enough for you to be like, actively happy with me being there

I knew you were reading viz as town already so that made sense

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VOTE: woo

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man it's so hard to get into games when nobody is ever live with me

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oh wow there's a person here

skitter is, imo, a player who is easier to read as time goes on and generally the best approach is to treat her with good faith and to see where she's trying to steer the game -- if you're working with her and you land on town a couple of days in a row there is a good shout she's scum. this has been my default mode to approach her for I think years(?) now, but despite that I've been making slightly more effort to actually read her instead of just townbinning her until D3

for the slight lean town it's that I like that she voted Andy when she did and for the reasons she did

and I like that she thinks viz town because I also think viz town

I feel like we're maybe not mind melding yet, but on the same page, and that's enough for her to be a townlean

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and Woo vote

that's easy: was calling the Andy wagon good but not joining, unvoted enchant!slot because of the rep out/in when that doesn't have any effect on the alignment of the slot itself

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sheep could you give me an overall reads list?

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Andy wagon is dying, I don't think enchant wagon is productive atm, woo is the third and I don't have reasons to think town plus after looking at ISO there are reasons he could be scum

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sheep could you give me an overall reads list?

I dont rly like these

sheep
implosion, andante
alianna, invisibility trending up
cephrir
menalque/Dunnstral
aisa/skitter/maybe woo
dr-enchant

why don't you like them? that's not rly game relevant but I'm curious

game wise, why is ceph where he is? also why is andante near the top, is it play, PR claim, or something else?

Why do u not think enchant is productive rn ?

you have experience with enchant right? I think wagoning enchant is similar to wagoning N_M -- often a good idea, but unlikely to lead to anything very telling from him

like: if enchant is scum, cool, partners might bus or might just stall out plus I'm not likely to get anything from him. if enchant is town, cool, scum might back the wagon or they might let it stall out because they want to keep him around as a later game lim instead of burning the lim D1

this is not me shitting on enchant but again, similar to N_M, he's limbait and regardless of alignment I don't think the wagons on him are likely to be that productive or to spur other people into having interesting reactions or to do things that are revealing of alignment whereas a wagon elsewhere is more likely to lead to those things imo

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and Woo vote

that's easy: was calling the Andy wagon good but not joining, unvoted enchant!slot because of the rep out/in when that doesn't have any effect on the alignment of the slot itself

I feel like unvoting when there's a replacement is a pretty normal thing to do? I mean I don't disagree that I'd rather the vote have stayed (though for me it's because it's the wagon I want to push) but like, people unvote to see what the replacement's gonna do like, all the time.

I mean yes but also no? I think that's more often when someone is voting a slot for inactivity/lurking and there's a rep vs when you actually SR the slot -- or alternatively if you're worried about the lim going through but drew wagon was like e-3 so that wouldn't have been a concern

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man it's so hard to get into games when nobody is ever live with me

I'm curious where this came from. The game has been going for 6 days and you have been V/LA for like half of this time.
(If you're town I'm sure your feelings are valid!! But it's like :hmm: how did you come to the conclusion that nobody is ever online at your same time)

No I haven't looked back at Andante yet yes that's next on my list

note: not "into this game" but "into games". it's just that I have fairly limited time for MS (I like to play but it's p close to last on list of priorities) and feel I'm much more productive both at producing and at deducing when I'm interacting either live or close to it. I used to have a v bad habit of sitting around for ages refreshing (or playing 4-5 games at a time so at least one would have content) -- anyway if I log in and post and don't see a reply within like 5 mins then I'm likely to go do something else even if I'm free to be around and play, and that makes it hard to get into games. I think nobody was around right after my brief catch up posts for instance, even though I could have played longer potentially at that point

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VOTE: enchant

E2
Mena can be a partner

Serious question: you think I would burn my chances of endgaming by trying to divert from enchant if we were partnered?

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I don't think it was 'diverting', it was a little more subtle than that. And yeah i think you could have at that time. Enchant gained a lot more steam imo *after* your vote;

your woo vote did look partner-y

and iirc

it was the biggest wagon that wasnt on someone you already said you werent voting

(1) I have more to say on this but I’ll say it either later today or tomorrow

(2) this is accurate, yeah, and relevant but not in the way you’re thinking rn

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As for the first bit… I think it’s reasonable to believe that and if you don’t think it was diverting (or it was more subtle than to be called that, same difference imo) I can see why you would see it as partnery

For the record, I probably would sometimes and wouldn’t at other times, but enchant is someone I’d be less likely to try and do it for (much as I like him and enjoy having him in games)

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VOTE: enchant

E2
Mena can be a partner

Serious question: you think I would burn my chances of endgaming by trying to divert from enchant if we were partnered?

So do u get why i think this?

Yes

I mean, ofc I know you’re wrong in this particular case about what I’m actually doing, but I do now get how you’re thinking it and why

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Skitter what do you think of andante atp?

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Aisa, andante, enchant: what do each of you think about woo?

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GuerillaWoo

He has an iso, look at it, tell me what you think

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Are you caught up?

Pedit: at andy

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Sheep, what do you think of skitt’s idea that I make sense as an enchant partner?

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mena seems to be asking questions to just “look busy”

This is an odd line to take. Do you think I’m scum then? Would I be asking different questions if I were town?

Sheep, what do you think of skitt’s idea that I make sense as an enchant partner?

uhh I don't rlly think anything meaningful lol

I remember reading it and being like "that makes lots of sense, I see that" and giving skitter a couple townpoints

I think u explaining "enchant is a player unlikely to respond differently to a wagon" or whatever also made enough sense

I havent read the exchange between u two in enough detail

Okay, I think this is a fair take, was curious bc you weren’t particularly against woo when I floated that as a good place for a wagon but you’re also voting enchant

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I think the game is like two thirds solved lol

No I will not elaborate at this point

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VOTE: Enchant

Yeet. This may be all the content I can muster today, but yeet.

Alianna, when you’re able to — why this vote at this point?

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Lastly I think I want to hear more from dunn/woo/CSF, mostly the latter two

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I think shooting invisibility would be a good enough reason to lim someone all by itself

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and Woo vote

unvoted enchant!slot because of the rep out/in when that doesn't have any effect on the alignment of the slot itself

I wanted to be polite though.


This game slowed down for a while then quickly blew up over the last day, I'll be in later to catch up.

Okay am interested to hear what your thoughts are on the game once you’re up-to-date

your vote has no power when no one agrees with you.

Yeah, this

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I mean, wouldn't you want my vote to go towards limming your sr? cause it doesn't seem like people are really agreeing anywhere

That’s an odd thing to say when enchant is at e-2 with no competing wagon

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I mean, wouldn't you want my vote to go towards limming your sr? cause it doesn't seem like people are really agreeing anywhere

That’s an odd thing to say when enchant is at e-2 with no competing wagon

well enchant is town, and I haven't seen a solid case in favor of enchant!scum so sorry to say it, but that wagon just seems like a joke wagon to me.. "oh haha enchant is an easy lim!!"

I mean there are 5 people who disagree with you and there’s nothing else gaining traction so kinda regardless of your perception I don’t think it’s a joke wagon

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VOTE: enchant

E2
Mena can be a partner

Serious question: you think I would burn my chances of endgaming by trying to divert from enchant if we were partnered?

So do u get why i think this?

Yes

I mean, ofc I know you’re wrong in this particular case about what I’m actually doing, but I do now get how you’re thinking it and why

So ig my issue is: why do u think i was thinking that if you were a partner you were burning all of your bridges?

Like this question is a bit weird to me in how it's framed b/c i don't know why you would think i thought you were doing that

I will answer this but I want to hear from woo/dunn first -- see 625 and 679

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can someone please unvote enchant temporarily because he can currently self-hammer if scum and I don't want day to end just yet

also @enchant you should probably be claiming here

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I didn't like Dunnstral's entrance, and I'm interested to see where he goes when he comes back

@Mena, I'm actually kinda curious why you said you wanted to hear from me/Woo/Dunn because I think both Woo and Dunn are scummy

simply, I feel least confident in my reads on you three and would like to boost that somewhat before EoD1

now, questions!

(1) why didn't you like Dunn's entrance?

(2) what do you like about Alianna?

(3) have you played much with enchant?

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If you want me to post random.org readlist i can always do that but pfft.


I have better things to do actually.

I would rather you just claim tbh

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I think I'd still prefer the claim now actually

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Mena told me to

Thank you btw

I know deadline is approaching but I would still really like to see what both dunn and woo think of current gamestate before day ends

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I really don’t see enchant flipping scum here…

Yet you continue to just say this instead of casing or canvassing for votes on any of me, implo, viz, aisa (which I understand to be your scumreads unless I’m missing something?)

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VOTE: dunn

@aisa, have you played much with enchant?

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To those asking why I voted dunn — I’m holding off a little more on this until I hear from woo

I will get to it in due course

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Aisa, I have more questions for you —

(1) you’ve played with enchant before then — can you tell me why you think his reaction here to being wagoned is towny for him? How does it differ from his reaction to being wagoned when scum in your opinion?

(2) I’ve read and am digesting your Woo post, thanks for that. I’m now wondering where your head is at on dunn. You’re back to a TL on andy, do you think her case is convincing?

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To those asking why I voted dunn — I’m holding off a little more on this until I hear from woo

Yeah I dunno what to tell ya. it's gonna be a little late, had some irl stuff. I'm reading through the pages rn and nothing feels like it changed for me. Enchant and Andante still my biggest scumreads. Invis and Skitter still my TRs. Rest various shades of null.

Thats cool, I’m the last person to complain about irl stuff delaying ability to play lol

Can you explain a bit more why enchant and moreso andy are your biggest SRs and why skitt and viz are your biggest townreads?

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I will explain what I’ve been thinking/doing in just over an hour once I finish work, for anyone who has been asking

Pls no hammer before

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okay I'm here please let me write

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So, let me come out and say this:

I think the team is exactly Andy+enchant + 1 with the +1 probably being CSF

but possibly being alianna/aisa.

I've been thinking enchant is scum since shortly after his rep in and think Implo's case is very solid. This was solidified by Andy's constant attempts to move the wagon off/defend/generate doubt that enchant was scum or should be limmed today. I think her active resistance and defence of enchant is very partner-y.

But wait, I hear you cry, didn't you do that exact same thing, Mena? Well, yes and no. I have been slightly but not entirely disingenuous. I don't scumread woo or dunn, and when I was asked about woo I looked for two things I thought could plausibly justify a vote there and said those. I actually think woo is pretty solidly town. But I was being serious when I said much earlier that an enchant wagon was bad for game state because if enchant was scum and had just sailed through unopposed it would've been potentially much harder to find the remaining scum.


We would've ended up in a debate of did they bus, or not. A lot of useful information would have been removed and there would have been a lack of ability to look back at peoples' positioning on D1 on later days. So I decided to deliberately try to cultivate a CW under the assumption that scum would try to at least somewhat try to save Enchant if possible rather than just let a buddy get flipped. So my strat was just to vote whichever wagon was second largest to see if anyone else would jump on. Woo didn't really get traction, so I switched to dunn and lo and behold, CSF also moved over. This, combined with 724 is why I think CSF is best bet for third scum -- the woo and dunn reads both seemed really thin there and her later justifications in 850 seem like they're reaching to me. The elaborations on Alianna are also broadly quite empty imo (no offence intended if you're town CSF but there's quite a lot of "good post" as an explanation with nothing more).


Aisa joining on woo + flip flopping on Andy is why I think she could be scum if CSF isn't. However, compare her shift onto woo in 804 to CSF's move onto Dunn in 849 (and reasoning in the posts already referenced. I think this looks much more like someone really reconsidering a slot and working through it in stages, showing what they're thinking about and reaching the conclusion he could be scum vs looking for things to justify making a vote.

Alianna was the weakest vote on Enchant, so if neither of the other two are scum I could see her bussing.

Hopefully it doesn't matter because if it is Enchant + Andy then hopefully unless we're in a super vanilla setup then PRs should be able to round the game out from there.

Okay,

intent

but I'm holding off a bit in case anyone wants to ask questions.

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I propose flipping in the exact order of

Enchant --> Andy --> CSF --> Alianna --> Aisa --> Skitt

(mostly because I think the early wagon votes are probably all town provided Enchant scum and if it's Andy+Enchant and none of the likely partners are scum it's probably someone good at scum and also skitter surviving 5 nights would be very sun imo)

I hope that my explaining what I've been doing makes sense and there's a calculated risk there because I know I also look partner-y for attempting to divert the wagon. Skitt -- this is why I asked about diverting when I did, because that was exactly what I was trying to do to see if anyone would join. If I need to die on like D4 if CSF isn't scum that's fine, but I think that provided I'm right on Enchant + Andy then the game is probably won like 80-90% of the time.

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VOTE: Enchant

I refuse to give you pleasure of killing me.

@viz this is why I asked you to unvote before lol

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remember folks -- don't leave scum at E-1 because self-hammers hurt town

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two minutes after I post and invite any questions, this is 100% flipping scum

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I was town

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So why are you voting me Menalque?

did you, like, read 889 or ?

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Nevermind I didn't read your big post and just read your order of eliminations.

well that answers that lol

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Good luck with that.

I would be more inclined to believe you if you weren't notoriously a huge troll

(with love, you know I like playing with you <3)

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back later today prob, have seen nightkill but otherwise not up-to-date at all

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Jesus that’s a lot of replacements

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they were just the weirdest around enchant

andante behavior is explained by townreading enchant

menalque technically has an explanation as like that whole "I solved the game via these tests" thing that I still dont know what to think about

aisa sort of calls enchant wolfy but then does a bunch of weird stuff I think wolf might do in a dadv situation

(1) is it? I think andante behaviour is still questionable even with enchant flip, I just no longer think that we should auto-flip the slot like we should have if enchant had redded

(2) like what? I skimmed your iso and saw you talk about her play today but I don’t think I saw detail on what it was from yesterday

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I’m going to start bringing a large stick on the Metro and using it to break the equipment of any musician who decides they want to play something I’m then forced to listen to instead of peacefully being able to tune out the world with my own music

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I read ceph/skitt in ISO and i think ceph looks significantly worse although don’t feel exactly confident that he’s scum

I think he doesn’t look clearly town tho by any means and the main thing I dislike is the assertion that he both was yesterday (from his enchant vote which looked good so long as enchant was scum but looks less so given the green) and I don’t think the argument he’s making that he looks obviously town today and therefore skitt!scum for not seeing that

My point of hesitation is that idrk if town!ceph would believe that about himself despite his posts being pretty thin on the ground

VOTE: ceph

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I read ceph/skitt in ISO and i think ceph looks significantly worse although don’t feel exactly confident that he’s scum

I think he doesn’t look clearly town tho by any means and the main thing I dislike is the assertion that he both was yesterday (from his enchant vote which looked good so long as enchant was scum but looks less so given the green) and I don’t think the argument he’s making that he looks obviously town today and therefore skitt!scum for not seeing that

My point of hesitation is that idrk if town!ceph would believe that about himself despite his posts being pretty thin on the ground

VOTE: ceph

Yeah i'm wondering if the sr on my part was at least a bit motivated by being annoyed, i'm not sure how scummy i find it rn

I kinda want to vote sheep ngl

Feel better @delta

Why sheep?

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Also just quickly to mention — andy just repped out of my TM game after being frustrated with her partner(s?) and I don’t think the rep out from the slot was AI

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@implo, is the Meg read based on meg or on andante? Sorry, I haven’t had a chance to look at your iso yet as part of catch up and don’t really now either so if it’s explained and im missing it just point me at where pls

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Regarding Andante, I think my read on her is now in the vicinity of "town, but can still be persuaded otherwise by someone who knows more about her". I don't think her Dunn case is scummy by any means, I just don't understand it at all (except for activity points). It's entirely possible that it's actually a good case that I just cannot physically parse.

I think her trajectory through this game sort of makes sense with how she'd feel as town; I think going to read people and latching onto a Dunn scumread is something she could definitely do as town. I think I tend to read her general sense of being pissed at the game state, like her indignance at the Enchant wagon and at people refusing to join her on Dunn, as townish. I think in that context her being pissed at people for not townreading her and assuming that she is the shining beacon of towniness is consistent with her mindset, it's just such a foreign mindset to me.

implo, responding here because it's where you actually talk about it but I don't think that anything that Andy did is really particularly clearing for the slot?

I mean, my impression of andante is that she is intense and scattered regardless with a tendency to tunnel as town and to fake tunnel as scum, all mixed in with a big ole helping of emotional volatility.

but looking back at her ISO... idk, I'm not seeing it really. I don't have her as locked in scum, but I think she was (1) overly sensitive about the wagon on her, a wagon which was only at 3 and which I now know was 2/3 town and quite possibly 3/3 town. I don't particularly care for the meta arguments, but I think she is overly worried in posts like 454 and 459 for the amount of actual pressure and I don't think the fact she might react like that as town is clearing. the PR claim so early is also, I think, way too preemptive. it's unfortunate because I think if she's town she does a lot of suboptimal stuff that gives her cover as scum basically.

she then super hard OMGUS' on Aisa who I'm currently town on, then pushes now confirmed town invisibility which I think is an awful push, then pushes on me for filler questions, then town reads enchant who even being town I think looked objectively terrible and I don't regret limming him at all (again, <3 u buddy)

uhh I have to go now but there is more I think

tl;dr Andy being indignant and irritated not town indicative

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hmm, yes, I think fire is a scumslot consider this a de facto e-1

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i don't think the questions he asked actually led him anywhere nor do i see places where they changed his perspective, and the way he went about asking them felt performative for the sake of looking like he was investigating stuff

I also think ur full of shit, so touched

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fuckin goddamn autocorrect

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from my (admittedly not that well-researched) knowledge of mena's scumgame that seems pretty in his wheelhouse

i think of his main skills as being able to vibe real-time and successfully posture/front when he wants to seem confident in a solve

it's more effort than he's put into scumgames recently but eh

Why do you think mena could/would do that as scum

Like you said right after, i think his scumgame is more abt vibing in real time and buddying people

I think he's less likely to come up with a elaborate multi-day reaction test depending on a town-slot flipping scum if he were scum

because when you look at the actual posts he made most of them were just asking people busy work questions or general theory and not actually doing anything that i think would be difficult to fake

i don't think his progression to get to the point of having the game solved is particularly believable either

i dunno maybe it was due to reading it all at once but it felt a little too on the nose and telegraphed. in 570 he's talking all about how its better to wagon other people than enchant to look for reactions better

then like his next posts are 623 and 625 which look way more to me like someone who just got a fun idea of a gimmick they can pull than someone who has been genuinely planning this since prior to the woo vote

and then he asks people a bunch of questions. and

then wowwww he does his big reveal where he says he's being doing that thing which he earlier said would be the towny thing to do

idk im not saying it's a scummy thing to do, i just don't think it's clearing. its like slightly +town but i think his posting overall feels too constructed

and i don't see places where i can actually see his thoughts developing and changing. it feels more like he has picked positions to have at certain points and then is doing a pretty good job at working within that framework, rather than those positions developing naturally

incidentally, the whole reason why this sold me on fire scum is not even that I don't believe his read on me (although I don't) but mostly the fact that this entire post is simultaneously trying to imply I'm scummy while making the explicit claim that it's not scummy but it's not clearing

the bolded is the most relevant bit because the "wowwww" part is heavily suggesting I'm scum, he's saying the overall thing is town but that I... wouldn't construct posts as town? but it's still lightly +town for me

it just makes no fucking sense

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im somewhere around here but it's murky

[sheep, ceph, aisa]
[dunn, meg]
[aureal, egix]
[skitter, mena, implosion]

sometimes when i replace in i feel like i have the game solved (or at least a really confident read or two) and i think ive been decently accurate when i have that feeling?

i do not have that feeling here. i think there's still a lot of sorting to do. i am not particularly confident in any of my scumleans and there's not anyone i'd bet the game on being town either

however, that probably means the game is hard which does lend me the tiniest bit of confidence i guess since it would be a hard game if my scumleans are correct

does the confidence on mena come from his worldbuilding thing he did or is there more to it

i wasn't really that impressed by it but i dunno

from my (admittedly not that well-researched) knowledge of mena's scumgame that seems pretty in his wheelhouse

i think of his main skills as being able to vibe real-time and successfully posture/front when he wants to seem confident in a solve

it's more effort than he's put into scumgames recently but eh

fire it would be a lot easier to believe you weren't scum if your game so far hadn't been trying to actively insert me into the limpool and undermine the perception of me as town

if the trajectory is bad and I was faking the whole thing for town points then I'm probably scum

if it's a real thing I was doing and the trajectory makes sense I'm probably town

it cannot have been something that was both faked and real from me, but what you're arguing is that I'm scum for bits of what I did while also saying "well mena shouldn't be seen as town for what he did but I'm not saying it makes him scum" <- obviously paraphrasing here

[Menalque]

VOTE: fire

[Menalque]

it cannot have been something that was both faked and real from me

yea you're right and guess what im still trying to figure out which one it is because i am town

i can see both sides and im weighing which one matters more to me

every scum does things that are towny this isn't a new concept

no you're not lmao, you're very clearly and blatantly angling in my direction while saying that's not what you're doing

this conversation is pointless because you're scum and you're just fishing for anything you can use to look like town

if anyone would like to talk to me about fire, feel free, I have no interest in burying the thread in a 20 page back and forth which is what I'm betting fire is hoping to do

[Menalque]

also lol at you trying to smear this as just OMGUS to distract from yourself tho

[Menalque]

fuck man some scum players just really know how to get me to take the bait, jesus

[Menalque]

because when you look at the actual posts he made most of them were just asking people busy work questions or general theory and not actually doing anything that i think would be difficult to fake

i don't think his progression to get to the point of having the game solved is particularly believable either

[snip]

and then he asks people a bunch of questions.

because fire is (1) full of shit and (2) pissing me off because he's full of shit and doesn't have the common decency to lie the fuck down and let us lim his scumfuck ass into next week, here is a breakdown of my intention of every single question asked during my "I'm not revealing what I'm doing" period of D1

also, to add on the general topic of my confidence levels recently. I am never, obviously, 100% confident in what I'm doing. however, to not appear confident tends to sink your ship and fuck you on whatever you're trying to do in mafia. half the time you can get someone limmed by just faking extreme confidence and yelling at everyone else in the game (which says more about the problems with site meta than anything else but I'm digressing).

keen mena!fans will be aware I was recently in TM and playing with koba who was kind enough to explain some of their approach to games to me which is what I'm not trying out. it's essentially about building a worldview of a game, trying to see how the pieces fit into the model, and then re-evaluating based on flips to construct a new model, hopefully getting more accurate each time.

in my model yesterday, enchant was very likely to be scum, and andante was very likely to be a partner. therefore the priority from when I became confident in that (not 100% but strongly) became about identifying partner 3.

post-enchant flip, my priorities have no changed and I am re-evaluating people based on how much they were a read for independent reasons (tone, progressing game, uninformed thoughts) or dependent reasons (relationships with slots I thought were scum).

the main slots needing re-evaluation were ceph, sheep, egix, fire, with a secondary need to look at Andy, dunn, aureal

fortunately fire decided to join the game and obvscum so that slot needs less re-eval than the rest and I can now start modelling the game around a fairly high confidence that fire!slot is scum

anyway, onto the questions:

If I’m putting that in a more popular and easily digestible format I guess it would look something like this:

Town?
Viz
Dunn

Town??
Sheep


Town???
Skitt
Csf

Various shades of null
Implo
Woo
Ceph

Scum??
Aisa

Scum?
Andy
Enchant

quoted to show what I was thinking at this point in time because it's then relevant to the progression afterwards

VOTE: woo

and Woo vote

that's easy: was calling the Andy wagon good but not joining, unvoted enchant!slot because of the rep out/in when that doesn't have any effect on the alignment of the slot itself

sheep immediately asked me about the woo vote so I made up these two reasons by skimming his iso and looking for anything I could think was scummy

overall, pretty weak reasons

however, sheep then made this post

ok I mildly agree about woo lol

not just the fact that he unvoted, but like his overall popin was just pretty bad. 2 posts but no will to do anything because the pressure on him has eased

"I don't feel like much has changed" when meaningful stuff happened is +wolf

I disliked bc I had... literally just made up those reasons and they were shit. sheep was someone I was leaning town so this was concerning from him. actually, looking back now, actually this is still concerning? I think I was thinking I was hot shit there for persuading sheep with made up reasoning but if sheep was actually just scum looking to lim woo then him being down to agree with me on any scumread I had that wasn't on scum would also explain him not questioning my reasoning here

note that implo, who I think is town,

did

call me out on the weakness of upvoting enchant being a reason to SR woo

sheep could you give me an overall reads list?

hence this, asked immediately after: I was now concerned about sheep so I wanted to know where his head was at. I wanted to see if the broader vision of the game aligned with mine, and to have something on record from him if he was scum to look at later with more flips on the board.

Andy wagon is dying, I don't think enchant wagon is productive atm, woo is the third and I don't have reasons to think town plus after looking at ISO there are reasons he could be scum

half truth -- the woo bit is obviously made up but I do think an enchant wagon was unproductive there if he was scum. or at least, unproductive for everyone to be on because it gives you no clear idea if scum are bussing or trying to save. creating a fake counter wagon is a great play with little downside because at the time of revealing that the counter wagon support was fake it should hopefully not go through in the vast majority of cases which then nets you both the first scum and any buddies if they try to save.

off scum might bus anyway, but then you got a free scum and you're no worse off than if you hadn't done it so *shrug*

sheep could you give me an overall reads list?

I dont rly like these

sheep
implosion, andante
alianna, invisibility trending up
cephrir
menalque/Dunnstral
aisa/skitter/maybe woo
dr-enchant

why don't you like them? that's not rly game relevant but I'm curious

game wise, why is ceph where he is? also why is andante near the top, is it play, PR claim, or something else?

Why do u not think enchant is productive rn ?

you have experience with enchant right? I think wagoning enchant is similar to wagoning N_M -- often a good idea, but unlikely to lead to anything very telling from him

like: if enchant is scum, cool, partners might bus or might just stall out plus I'm not likely to get anything from him. if enchant is town, cool, scum might back the wagon or they might let it stall out because they want to keep him around as a later game lim instead of burning the lim D1

this is not me shitting on enchant but again, similar to N_M, he's limbait and regardless of alignment I don't think the wagons on him are likely to be that productive or to spur other people into having interesting reactions or to do things that are revealing of alignment whereas a wagon elsewhere is more likely to lead to those things imo

now, here I'm asking sheep about ceph. why? because ceph is very null to me too off his own game atp, as I think more about the worldview thing I decide he's town because of the early enchant vote and that they're unlikely to be partnered

funnily enough, I missed that sheep never answered either of these questions, the one on ceph or andante. sheep, if you remember, I would still like to know this

VOTE: enchant

E2
Mena can be a partner

Serious question: you think I would burn my chances of endgaming by trying to divert from enchant if we were partnered?

immediate awareness of the fact that I was diverting because of the fact that that was my immediate intent -- to create a CW! skitt gets definite townpoints here for calling me out on it immediately, although I do wish she'd maybe held off on saying anything a bit longer so that scum might have been more likely to join (again, where I believe that enchant is scum, which atp is still v much the case)

I don't think it was 'diverting', it was a little more subtle than that. And yeah i think you could have at that time. Enchant gained a lot more steam imo *after* your vote;

your woo vote did look partner-y

and iirc

it was the biggest wagon that wasnt on someone you already said you werent voting

(1) I have more to say on this but I’ll say it either later today or tomorrow

(2) this is accurate, yeah, and relevant but not in the way you’re thinking rn

on point 2 -- yes, exactly! the fact I was aware of this and could explain why I was doing it actually makes it very *anti-partnery* provided I get to out before D1 ends. because it would be so, so much easier to just bus enchant for the cred and then pin it on the voters not on him than to fake all of this just to have a slightly better bus on my buddy.

VOTE: enchant

E2
Mena can be a partner

Serious question: you think I would burn my chances of endgaming by trying to divert from enchant if we were partnered?

So do u get why i think this?

Yes

I mean, ofc I know you’re wrong in this particular case about what I’m actually doing, but I do now get how you’re thinking it and why

and I still think it makes skitt town even tho the assumptions she was thinking about it from were off because she wasn't aware what the play I was trying to make was

Skitter what do you think of andante atp?

trying to tell if a strongish townread was also being wigged by Andy's defence of scum!enchant. my thinking was that if she came back to me saying still probably scum and makes sense as a buddy to enchant then I could trust my read even further because I would another person had looked at the same facts as me and drawn the same conclusion.

Aisa, andante, enchant: what do each of you think about woo?

atp I'm confident on enchant as scum, Andy as being enchant's partner, and I want the third. aisa is the third for me at this point while I'm waiting for her to get back to me on her woo read -- I didn't like the way she voted and unvoted Andy and thought that could be distancing behaviour, plus she hadn't commented at all on anything to do with enchant by this point despite having been around. I wanted to shop the team and also see if asking all of them would lead to them aligning or disaligning when they came to answer it

Sheep, what do you think of skitt’s idea that I make sense as an enchant partner?

mena seems to be asking questions to just “look busy”

This is an odd line to take. Do you think I’m scum then? Would I be asking different questions if I were town?

Sheep, what do you think of skitt’s idea that I make sense as an enchant partner?

uhh I don't rlly think anything meaningful lol

I remember reading it and being like "that makes lots of sense, I see that" and giving skitter a couple townpoints

I think u explaining "enchant is a player unlikely to respond differently to a wagon" or whatever also made enough sense

I havent read the exchange between u two in enough detail

Okay, I think this is a fair take, was curious bc you weren’t particularly against woo when I floated that as a good place for a wagon but you’re also voting enchant

I think Andy's line to push on me here is bad because there is very clearly (as I've been showing here) a reason behind all my questions. I think her trying to shade me for it is bad play as I think a better approach is to try and find out why someone is asking those questions. I think the lack of curiosity is +scum but not case closed -- can just be bad play if you genuinely think they're busy work.

I think the game is like two thirds solved lol

No I will not elaborate at this point

two thirds = obviously enchant and andy

VOTE: Enchant

Yeet. This may be all the content I can muster today, but yeet.

Alianna, when you’re able to — why this vote at this point?

asking alianna specifically because I think scum are trying to save enchant because enchant and his buddy Andy are off wagon. that makes me think scum will join a wagon which I'm supporting and Andy and enchant will both hop on because that's the best of not seeing scum die on D1. however, I'm thinking: there's a chance they're hedging their bets and going enchant off with Andy trying to vocally save him, while one scum busses just in case it all goes pear shapes. alianna had a late vote with a weak justification, and I thought it could be alianna in an Andy/alianna/enchant world wanting to get on before she missed the opportunity. hence wanting to know both the reason and why she voted right then

Lastly I think I want to hear more from dunn/woo/CSF, mostly the latter two

obvious thing first: I had to include woo because if not it looks weird and I'm aware of that. I'm actually confident on woo!town here and have been this whole time, but if he's who I'm supposedly voting for being scummy then... yeah, I need to look like I want to interrogate him at least

CSF was prob my main suspect by this point? I'd become very locked on Andy being scum with enchant and thought that CSF's defence of Andy could therefore spew her as partner by 1->2->3 step process. hence I wanted to get more out of her and see if she'd join the CW.

dunn i liked the entrance of but know he is good and experienced and felt like I ideally wanted to see more to try and confirm he wasn't the partner to Andy/enchant. I was hoping for clearing stuff from him basically

VOTE: enchant

E2
Mena can be a partner

Serious question: you think I would burn my chances of endgaming by trying to divert from enchant if we were partnered?

So do u get why i think this?

Yes

I mean, ofc I know you’re wrong in this particular case about what I’m actually doing, but I do now get how you’re thinking it and why

So ig my issue is: why do u think i was thinking that if you were a partner you were burning all of your bridges?

Like this question is a bit weird to me in how it's framed b/c i don't know why you would think i thought you were doing that

I will answer this but I want to hear from woo/dunn first -- see 625 and 679

again, I think this is now clear. because I

was

doing

exactly that

. just not for the reasons skitt was thinking at the time.

I didn't like Dunnstral's entrance, and I'm interested to see where he goes when he comes back

@Mena, I'm actually kinda curious why you said you wanted to hear from me/Woo/Dunn because I think both Woo and Dunn are scummy

simply, I feel least confident in my reads on you three and would like to boost that somewhat before EoD1

now, questions!

(1) why didn't you like Dunn's entrance?

(2) what do you like about Alianna?

(3) have you played much with enchant?

why these questions: because I thought Dunn's entrance was good and CSF basically said nothing to justify why she thought it was bad. felt like trying to potentially target an inactive slot as an alternative to enchant.

alianna had done so little for me here and was the worst vote on wagon, so I wanted to know what justification CSF had for putting her so high. felt plausibly like a made up sort of read to me

question on enchant: because I thought enchant was obvscum and that the more anyone had played with him, the more that they should have known this and therefore answering "he's not scum" made them more likely scum too.

VOTE: dunn

@aisa, have you played much with enchant?

see above, bearing in mind aisa is my third preference for scum after CSf --> alianna. I flipflop back and forth on this and ultimately decide that the better play objectively is to lim the most likely off wagon slots first before looking for someone bussing which is why the final order to lim them in after enchant and Andy red flips was different.

Aisa, I have more questions for you —

(1) you’ve played with enchant before then — can you tell me why you think his reaction here to being wagoned is towny for him? How does it differ from his reaction to being wagoned when scum in your opinion?

(2) I’ve read and am digesting your Woo post, thanks for that. I’m now wondering where your head is at on dunn. You’re back to a TL on andy, do you think her case is convincing?

probing to try and see if aisa says anything that makes her look partnered while directly pressuring her about the people that I think she would be partnered with

To those asking why I voted dunn — I’m holding off a little more on this until I hear from woo

Yeah I dunno what to tell ya. it's gonna be a little late, had some irl stuff. I'm reading through the pages rn and nothing feels like it changed for me. Enchant and Andante still my biggest scumreads. Invis and Skitter still my TRs. Rest various shades of null.

Thats cool, I’m the last person to complain about irl stuff delaying ability to play lol

Can you explain a bit more why enchant and moreso andy are your biggest SRs and why skitt and viz are your biggest townreads?

woo is town to me so the questions here are because I wanna see what his take on the game is

I like that his view on the game atp lines up very well with mine

[Menalque]

any other questions that you want to try and suggest were busywork lmao?

[Menalque]

fire trying to push me on this angle

i dunno maybe it was due to reading it all at once but

it felt a little too on the nose and telegraphed

. in 570 he's talking all about how its better to wagon other people than enchant to look for reactions better

then like his next posts are 623 and 625 which look way more to me like someone who just got a fun idea of a gimmick they can pull than someone who has been genuinely planning this since prior to the woo vote

and then he asks people a bunch of questions. and then wowwww he does his big reveal where he says he's being doing that thing which he earlier said would be the towny thing to do

idk im not saying it's a scummy thing to do, i just don't think it's clearing. its like slightly +town but i think his posting overall feels too constructed and

i don't see places where i can actually see his thoughts developing and changing

. it feels more like he has picked positions to have at certain points and then is doing a pretty good job at working within that framework,

rather than those positions developing naturally

is just such a bad decision given that when I'm town if I actually try I can retrace what I was thinking at almost any point in the game provided I have like a bare modicum of notes and the sufficient time to do so

just terrible play, get in the scumbin so we can lim the shit out of you and then remember this for the next time you roll scum against me

[Menalque]

So, let me come out and say this:

I think the team is exactly Andy+enchant + 1 with the +1 probably being CSF

but possibly being alianna/aisa.
[...]

I propose flipping in the exact order of

Enchant --> Andy --> CSF --> Alianna --> Aisa --> Skitt

(mostly because I think the early wagon votes are probably all town provided Enchant scum and if it's Andy+Enchant and none of the likely partners are scum it's probably someone good at scum and also skitter surviving 5 nights would be very sun imo)

I hope that my explaining what I've been doing makes sense and there's a calculated risk there because I know I also look partner-y for attempting to divert the wagon. Skitt -- this is why I asked about diverting when I did, because that was exactly what I was trying to do to see if anyone would join. If I need to die on like D4 if CSF isn't scum that's fine, but I think that provided I'm right on Enchant + Andy then the game is probably won like 80-90% of the time.

Ok, questions about this stuff.

1. Why did you scumread Andyslot? What's your read on the slot now?
2. Is there a reason you proposed flipping in this exact order? It seemed really dependent on your exact solve of Enchant + Andante + 1, which even if I agreed Enchant and Andy were likely to flip scum seemed like a lot of pre-flipping

@Mena

I also remembered I never got a response to this and, yeah, think this actually is pretty important stuff for understanding this slot

I'm hoping the huge post I just made is adequate to answer this if you read it in its entirety because it's a pretty step-by-step detailing of how I was thinking throughout most of D1, at least from when things got interesting

[Menalque]

I don't think fire is obvscum here

it's okay you can think it after he flips red instead

[Menalque]

from my (admittedly not that well-researched) knowledge of mena's scumgame that seems pretty in his wheelhouse

i think of his main skills as being able to vibe real-time and successfully posture/front when he wants to seem confident in a solve

it's more effort than he's put into scumgames recently but eh

Why do you think mena could/would do that as scum

Like you said right after, i think his scumgame is more abt vibing in real time and buddying people

I think he's less likely to come up with a elaborate multi-day reaction test depending on a town-slot flipping scum if he were scum

because when you look at the actual posts he made most of them were just asking people busy work questions or general theory and not actually doing anything that i think would be difficult to fake

i don't think his progression to get to the point of having the game solved is particularly believable either

i dunno maybe it was due to reading it all at once but it felt a little too on the nose and telegraphed. in 570 he's talking all about how its better to wagon other people than enchant to look for reactions better

then like his next posts are 623 and 625 which look way more to me like someone who just got a fun idea of a gimmick they can pull than someone who has been genuinely planning this since prior to the woo vote

and then he asks people a bunch of questions. and then wowwww he does his big reveal where he says he's being doing that thing which he earlier said would be the towny thing to do

idk im not saying it's a scummy thing to do, i just don't think it's clearing. its like slightly +town but i think his posting overall feels too constructed and i don't see places where i can actually see his thoughts developing and changing. it feels more like he has picked positions to have at certain points and then is doing a pretty good job at working within that framework, rather than those positions developing naturally

with this being fire's logic behind me being joint bottom of his readslist

im somewhere around here but it's murky

[sheep, ceph, aisa]
[dunn, meg]
[aureal, egix]
[skitter, mena, implosion]

sometimes when i replace in i feel like i have the game solved (or at least a really confident read or two) and i think ive been decently accurate when i have that feeling?

i do not have that feeling here. i think there's still a lot of sorting to do. i am not particularly confident in any of my scumleans and there's not anyone i'd bet the game on being town either

however, that probably means the game is hard which does lend me the tiniest bit of confidence i guess since it would be a hard game if my scumleans are correct

combined with these being his posts around skitt and implo:

the middle paragraph meant i think you know better

andante often looks wild and chaotic. people who are unfamiliar with her will probably be more likely to suspect her. people who are unfamiliar with you will probably be less likely to think you should have a certain approach to her

i think this playerlist seems like it could have more of both type of player in it, compared to say, panic room, which had a lot more familiarity with both, where you took this approach and townread her:

i think she just kinda freezes as scum tbh
or at least her iso/posts is a lot emptier and there's a lot less train-of-thought vibes when she's scum, and less content and more excuses about why she doesn't have as many reads
as town i think we just kinda get exactly what she's thinking, as she's thinking it

which is kinda what i'm seeing here

i think she is by nature noise-y and posture-y, but i wouldn't consider them scumtells for her

and like yeah you were scum but you still must be at least aware of andante patterns in order to make this post

i do like skitter's pressure on mena

could this be edition 36 of i scumread skitter's early game and then decide she's town after like 20 more pages

perhaps

skitter saying she didn't understand the Drew wagon and then switching to putting Drew at the bottom of her reads list specifically without explaining it until asked is possibly a towntell? I feel like if skitter-scum is catching up and makes that comment about Drew she'd usually feel the need to justify herself when she then puts drew in the bottom of a reads list, just flipping on a dime with no explanation and no relevant intervening content is sort of an unintuitive thing for scum to do.

this is a good post and also a good point tho

implosion was specifically who i was thinking of when i said people that i suspect keep making towny posts

im not sure if it just feels denser due to reading the whole game at once but he is efforting pretty hard if scum and doing a pretty good job. im not sure how well i can express my suspicions there but ill try tomorrow morning, probably too sleepy to be coherent rn

i think the game is a lot easier if he's town and i think i might be able to find him if he is (i feel more confident in potentially being able to when engaging directly than backreading, for some reason), so im not sure if i want to push there especially

does it really make sense that we are all 3 at the bottom of his reads

I am voting no, the kill fire train goes Choo Choo full steam ahead

[Menalque]

I'd find that sort of thing more persuasive if I hadn't just seen Ali, another reputationally good scum player, just spend almost an entire day phase trying to argue that she couldn't be scum because of how bad a misplay an earlier decision would have been

guess what e flipped there

[Menalque]

I think you're careless because you spampost and trust on things getting lost in the noise and people not taking the time to actually sift through and check

[Menalque]

careless doesn't mean bad tho

I am aware of the irony in taking 3 posts to express that thought but in my defence I have since my earlier posts smoked a bowl and am nearly at the going to bed stage of the evening

[Menalque]

RR's thoughts are... fine. doesn't really have a lot to take away from it, actually, a decent amount feels like talking just to talk which is weird for a post that should be giving thoughts

funnily enough I thought there was another reason fire's attempt to move me into a limmable territory felt scummy, and it was this I think lol

way back when fire (as scum) tried to paint me as "talking just to talk" (i.e. "asking questions to ask questions")

which I would like to add, also makes it additionally implausible that he was really thinking I was scum here and is only now coming round after I've explained it. because he knew this about me already (and if he claims not to now, look how he's explicitly referred to my meta this game and ask how that tallies with not knowing about me)

[Menalque]

if you genuinely do want me to i am happy to explain more about my mindset in how my thoughts developed and how that progressed towards my readlist

i just don't really expect it would change your mind you seem pretty set in it

not really interested in reading made up thoughts when it would waste both our time and the energy I do have is much better spent in ensuring that you do not live to see another nightfall in this game

[Menalque]

implo can you please e-1 this so we can get a claim while we still have enough time to discuss said claim if necessary

[Menalque]

okay that one is my b lol I genuinely thought I'd posted that

[Menalque]

and by "that" I mean this:

okay, screw this. I liked the idea of the gimmick because it would force us to think before posting but given our dual V/LA's it has just made things really hard and I need to actually be able to post stuff (and there's no way we hit the post cap anyway).

RR's thoughts are... fine. doesn't really have a lot to take away from it, actually, a decent amount feels like talking just to talk which is weird for a post that should be giving thoughts

idk if I've played with you before but this is kinda my thing. I do not post with a specific goal in mind, I give my honest thoughts even if they're not conclusive or particularly productive. Once again I must underscore that I am happy to look into any particular questions people want me to check out, I think this is helpful for both parties, but it's way too rarely done in my mind.

[Menalque]

e-2, egix unvoted to vote u

but also that is a good point yeh, I guess we can hold off on e-1

[Menalque]

Idk lol

I think fire is posting almost like wolf!me lmao my gut screams wolf

but I think some aspects of their posting are just. Objectively villagery on paper lol

and thus I feel really weird about the state of the wagons

is my surface takeaway prior to understanding much

Such as?

[Menalque]

And I read the post before, I mean I want you to cite the exact posts where fire is being objectively villagery

[Menalque]

I can believe a fire/merlyn/one of egix & sheep team

Still think fire is the correct flip for today, not a huge amount else to add for now

[Menalque]

To those who worried the wagon on enchant was too easy yesterday — look how much more difficult the fire wagon is proving to be and there is a more meaningful effort to counterwagon onto skitt

[Menalque]

I go back and forth on ceph as lazy scum and lazy town

Like he pretty much always can be scum here and maybe he’s just cleverly playing on being null

But even if that is what he’s doing it’s kinda working because I wanna kill the players I think are being actively scummy first before I would kill him due to the fact he could be town who can’t get into the game and/or is just being lazy with it

[Menalque]

Sounds like you're gonna *love* the wall I'm working on, Mena

If ur town can you please just vote fire and we can talk about skitter tomorrow

Look who else is on her wagon vs who is backing the fire wagon

[Menalque]

@aureal, @implo, fire votes pls?

I would be willing to do sheep > fire today if that means not doing skitter

[Menalque]

Would much prefer fire tho

[Menalque]

@implo if it looks like I’m tunnelling it’s because I partially am

I do not think, actually, that fire has done nothing that is town or that could be town

Do I think fire’s entrance and takes coming into the game we’re both (1) bad and (2) potentially scum motivated if the game was going in the right direction? Yes on both

Has he been consistently active since then and have there been moments where I’ve thought “hmm that could be town”? Also yes on both

Because of the combination of the two, plus the general wagon build up in both directions, I prefer fire because I’m not sure I’m ever getting to a point where I feel comfortable on that slot whereas with skitter I think if she’s scum I do trust myself more to successfully re-evaluate

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I think a lot of why fire is looking town is because he’s just been active since joining and I think that’s a very bad metric for solving him

I don’t think he’s done anything really clearing and I think that his entrance was concerning enough to be killable + somehow everyone is forgetting that neither delta nor alianna did a good job of showing the slot was town

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I would kill sheep > aureal, if that's the direction we're going in then I'll stop pushing fire because I think we should only have one more slot claim today at most

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On phone so selective quote doesn’t work (wish they would fix this) but @sheep

“the people who would vote skitter here are the ones who have credibility in terms of currently actively evaluating, and that was something I was gonna talk about with why red>skitter bothers me so much. and it doesnt feel like his reads are so polarized between the two wagons that he can justify/overcome that disparity” I didn’t really understand what you were saying here

Both the first sentence and the second

What do you mean by the people who “have credit in terms of actually evaluating”?

And “it doesn’t feel like his reads are so polarised he can overcome the disparity”? What disparity?

Also I feel my explanation has been fairly clear if not crystal, and is also related to D1 which I know I explicitly mentioned when talking with fire.

Part of the reason I thought you were townie D1 was your relationship with the enchant wagon. After enchant flipped town, that obviously was no longer clearing. Here I think you’re more null scum than necessarily actually scum, but I think skitt is town, fire is scum, and you are actively being a problem in terms of limming scum and working in favour of limming town from my best guess

If I can’t lim the person I would most like to lim and my best guess at where scum actually is then you’re someone I’m willing to compromise on in the hope that a town who is currently wrong on fire is also wrong on you

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Sorry, is not also wrong on you*

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Incidentally if skitter does go through today and I die, fucking turboyeet fire tomorrow and if he flips scum kill the people who were backing the skitt wagon today on subsequent days

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@sheep firstly I think it’s kinda meh on whether fire has been doing stuff vs enchant or not. I have, admittedly, not been super here over the weekend as always but fire has no problem with volume of posting and I think what came before was just meh and I’ve seen an entire game think fire was town for posting a lot and thinking it looked okay but to me it was meh and town lost because of it

So colour me unimpressed but what fire has done so far even if certain moments have given me pause

To me I think all the arguments on skitt have been very weak and she’s always been an easy-ish target for scum to push because of the strength of her scumgame. I don’t feel like the wagon on her insofar as it came from town was more than sheeping people being loud and paranoia

Cont in pt2 bc lock could come any moment

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To me, ironically given what you said, fire has been the wagon people have been almost desperate to save without good reason and I think skitt as scum here would have made more effort to survive + there would be more effort from her partners to bail her out while fire lim was viable and she was gaining steam

Instead there was a heavy point of resistance on fire as that wagon got serious into a far too easy wagon on skitt

We’ll see if I have shit all over my face but I doubt it, but I want to reiterate again that if skitt is town then not limming fire tomorrow is basically just a throw if I’m not here to make that point again tomorrow

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Also idk how I feel about merlyn adding firebringer to her reads

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Oh last thing — if skitt is town and fire is town then I would probably vote ceph for the skitt hammer and the enchant vote on D1, if fire isn’t scum he’s just openwolfing

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Last last thing — I actually liked sheep’s response to me there and want to kill him less but I think if fire is scum then he still bears looking at but I’d probably be more focused on like egix and maybe merlyn

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VOTE: fire

Skitt was a counterwagon because fire is scum

Anyone who tries to save fire from being the lim today is also scum

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Will be around later today!

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Yo

Sorry Friday was unexpectedly busy and then the weekend was expectedly so

Just to give context: I go back to the Uk for summer work next week so atm everything is a bit of a hectic mess between getting ready for leaving while tying up end of academic year stuff

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I’ve only skimmed lightly for now in terms of catchup but I think we should definitely be massclaiming today regardless to lock people into claims

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Okay so big condition to this is that I’m not caught up properly — in fact if there’s anything major that happened during absence that would be helpful if I could be pointed in that direction — but I think even in a world where fire is town he’s still the objectively best lim here because if he’s town then that gives the most information on trying to figure out what scum were doing the past 2 days

I think it’s more likely that skitt was a scum driven CW and that scum are resisting bussing today in the hopes of the wagon diverting elsewhere but if he isn’t scum then is anyone seriously wanting to bet the game on fire town tomorrow as well after two days of steadfast resistance and, in this scenario, two counter wagons flipping town?

If you *are* willing to bet the game on fire!town and also wouldn’t lim him tomorrow the justification should be rock solid and it should be presented now

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Also, massclaim: we should be doing it

Is there a consensus TR to pick the order or failing that we popcorn

We shouldn’t be leaving it until tomorrow bc if fire flips town then scum fakeclaims will be much stronger, here they get locked in one way or another

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Okay so big condition to this is that I’m not caught up properly — in fact if there’s anything major that happened during absence that would be helpful if I could be pointed in that direction — but I think even in a world where fire is town he’s still the objectively best lim here because if he’s town then that gives the most information on trying to figure out what scum were doing the past 2 days

I think it’s more likely that skitt was a scum driven CW and that scum are resisting bussing today in the hopes of the wagon diverting elsewhere but if he isn’t scum then is anyone seriously wanting to bet the game on fire town tomorrow as well after two days of steadfast resistance and, in this scenario, two counter wagons flipping town?

If you *are* willing to bet the game on fire!town and also wouldn’t lim him tomorrow the justification should be rock solid and it should be presented now

If we lim town today and it's a 3-person scumteam I consider the game basically lost. Of course we should play on tomorrow for the 23% chance it's only a 2-person scumteam. But just to say that I'm not an "even if fire is town" gal.

In terms of major events, fire claimed townie (I forget if he already claimed this yesterday?)
And idk some reads have shifted, everyone seems more interested in Aureal?
Seconding that Ceph should explain why fire is town if he feels so strongly about it

why is the game basically lost? it's just Elo everyday from that point on, that's not lost by any means

thank you for the recap on what's been going on

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oh, also ydra is here, hi ydra

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I'm sorry I was hoping to be able to manage the game better this week but realistically

v/la until Monday please

I do want to play and sorry that I've been about as helpful as a wet paper towel in recent days but once I'm back in the uk I'll have time to actually get into it again

for now I will re-iterate again that fire is the correct play but also I'll probably sheep implosion in terms of EoD vote as he's the person I remember being towniest

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VOTE: sheep

e-1

Fire is still a better choice

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implosion died.

D:<
who’s gonna stop me from descending into insanity now

hi

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I feel it's fairly obvious that we should be killing in (fire, dunn, ceph) today

I think the argument for murdering fire is now overwhelmingly compelling but I'm willing to listen to arguments on dunn/ceph too

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the argument for killing fire is very simple:

fire!slots predecessors were scummy

fire was CW by a town wagon that was backed by scum who resisted pushing him

fire wouldn't get traction and was defended by scum

fire voted for town > voting for scum yesterday

is it possible that fire is town? yes

is it massively more likely he's scum? yes

is it pretty much the objectively correct play to kill him? also yes

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VOTE: fire

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I think 1 bus 1 defend is a possible configuration but correct play is to murder the defend then worry about the bus if game isn't over later on

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Aisa is definitely town, aureal is v likely town by virtue of being the CW, it’s possible ydra is scum who bussed but more likely is that both scum were defending sheep I think

Which makes it fire + (ceph/dunn)

The fact that ceph is trying to angle for a lim on aureal here instead of limming on the CW to sheep makes me think it’s more likely him vs dunn but I need to read them both in ISO to check that

Also while I think fire is the absolute right play for today we shouldn’t rush day

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Aisa is definitely town, aureal is v likely town by virtue of being the CW, it’s possible ydra is scum who bussed but more likely is that both scum were defending sheep I think

Which makes it fire + (ceph/dunn)

The fact that ceph is trying to angle for a lim on aureal here instead of limming on the CW to sheep makes me think it’s more likely him vs dunn but I need to read them both in ISO to check that

Also while I think fire is the absolute right play for today we shouldn’t rush day

You need a way better reason to clear aureal

Do I? Cause I really think “was on scum wagon while flipped scum was on her wagon” is a pretty strong argument for not killing her

When the scum wagon was pretty heavily town driven, unless you want to argue that both aureal and ydrasse are scum in which case go ahead but it’d better be incredibly compelling

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Yeah, we should claim today

Probably this order:

Fire — VT
Ceph — VT
Dunn —
Aureal —
Ydra —
Me —
Aisa —

If anyone wants to object to this tell me why this is not my exact preferred order but it’s what I figured would be palatable to the collective

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Wagonomics in a vacuum is trash but wagonomics contextualised is actually pretty good

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no you can definitely judge im pretty bad

Fire you are objectively a good player as scum and as town and therefore when the circumstantial evidence points heavily to you being scum it’s precisely why I have been making such a point of trying to ensure your lim

If you’re town I’m sorry but there are good reasons to think you’re scum and I’m about 1000x more worried about you getting to an elo you like and talking round the final town than I am about dunn doing the same

Which is not a diss on dunn who literally just won an elo with umlaut but is a testament to you being very good

I know this was kind of a facetious comment from you/jokey or whatever but still

I do need to reread yesterday like, in order instead of some iso and reading bits around VCs but it just looks real bad in the context of your slot throughout the game

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no you can definitely judge im pretty bad

Fire you are objectively a good player as scum and as town and therefore when the circumstantial evidence points heavily to you being scum it’s precisely why I have been making such a point of trying to ensure your lim

If you’re town I’m sorry but there are good reasons to think you’re scum and I’m about 1000x more worried about you getting to an elo you like and talking round the final town than I am about dunn doing the same

Which is not a diss on dunn who literally just won an elo with umlaut but is a testament to you being very good

I know this was kind of a facetious comment from you/jokey or whatever but still

I do need to reread yesterday like, in order instead of some iso and reading bits around VCs but it just looks real bad in the context of your slot throughout the game

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Also I’m VT too lol

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i do think it is possibly the worst plan in the world (currently assuming we're in a 2 scum world based on how the claims are going) for me as scum to enter yesterday being like okay, im gonna reaffirm townreads and try to narrow things down to a poe

and then spend a lot of effort doing that, including my scum partner in the poe, and generally throughout the day being fine with limming him and even at some points leaning towards limming him

only to in the last few hours of the day suddenly decide to flip and try to hard push out the counter alongside him which gets us basically nowhere closer to winning the game even if we succeed

i think i either include him in the poe and try to push for him to be limmed bc we want me to endgame and keep myself as clean as possible (decent path if i think i can convince people im town) or we let me be the lim and set things up to allow him to endgame and look clean (a little harder i think? either could work depending on how we played it), or we go for the bold strategy of trying to both win by one of us convincing people that the other belongs in the towncore (risky and difficult)

instead we just decided to try to both burn all of our cred at once in order to... force out aureal?? which even if we succeed would leave us still one day away from elo with a 0% chance that we live after doing that?

like i know that nobody is gonna be convinced by this post and nobody should be, bc if this argument was convincing then there's an avenue where the plan could actually end up somehow working lol

but still

I might find this more convincing if I hadn’t just played TM against ali who is also a good scum player but e who made a significant part of er argument about not being scum around the idea of “why would I do this terrible play if I were scum” and then e flipped scum lol

Again, I should have time to do a full read through of what I missed during this day phase but there’s just so many factors that could have changed in scum PT for you to shift trajectory there that I’m not persuaded at all

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okay, before anything else, I just want to make this point -- if you are a PR and are claiming VT right now you should claim because (1) you're making the entire town think there is only 1 scum left when actually there are 2 and (2) your claim is going to be dubious when you do eventually make it

not saying I think this is likely but I want to be 100% (or as close as possible) on whether there are 1 or 2 scum left because that does change the way that previous day phases should be seen. I actually find myself agreeing with fire here but if there were only 2 scum from the start the amount of impact they'd have had throughout is significantly diminished

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I would kill sheep > aureal, if that's the direction we're going in then I'll stop pushing fire because I think we should only have one more slot claim today at most

I agree with the first bit, but unless you now think that fire v skitter is tvt then I don't see why we shouldn't just stay the course.

ok sorry yea everyone please like read pages 58 to 61 or so

VOTE: ydrasse

I mean… okay I’ll read them but at least from this post I’m not seeing any slam dunk sorta reason

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so uh actually i think this is a metric ive had a lot of success with. i can't even remember a time that ive misread you (or if i was conflicted, pushed for your lim) when we're both town once it gets into mid/late game

Quoting to facilitate access to page 58 from my phone

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To those who worried the wagon on enchant was too easy yesterday — look how much more difficult the fire wagon is proving to be and there is a more meaningful effort to counterwagon onto skitt

still reading but I think this is an unfair point to make as fire is playing the game while enchant did something other than that

I mean I’m reading fire but idk why you asked me to go back when this… does not look good for you

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I spent the rest of 58->60 looking for egix posts and saw nothing so… I have no idea how this is meant to lead me to ydra!scum when there’s no posts by the slot? Or are you saying sheep posts spew the slot scum?

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FYI for thread I just got to the summer camp I’m working at so… i will be posting when I can but please ping me in specific things I need to see

I still feel like fire is a good vote for reasons previously mentioned, @aisa in particular lmk if you’re leaning elsewhere as you’re my most solid TR

@aureal also ping me if you want me to look at stuff

@ceph I guess if you have a case or specific stuff you think spews aureal scum tell me where to look and I’ll try to

I’m kinda sorry I’m so lazy this game but it’s also been somewhat out of my control and when I have had time to play I just haven’t super been eager to spend it reading back

So while I still think fire is on balance the right play I don’t want to force that through if there’s a good argument for someone else esp given 2 scum world

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I’m not VLAing bc I can prob get on within prod range but consider my overall activity and how much I’m likely to do when online each time to be approx at a VLA level

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Aisa is definitely town, aureal is v likely town by virtue of being the CW, it’s possible ydra is scum who bussed but more likely is that both scum were defending sheep I think

Which makes it fire + (ceph/dunn)

The fact that ceph is trying to angle for a lim on aureal here instead of limming on the CW to sheep makes me think it’s more likely him vs dunn but I need to read them both in ISO to check that

Also while I think fire is the absolute right play for today we shouldn’t rush day

You need a way better reason to clear aureal

Do I? Cause I really think “was on scum wagon while flipped scum was on her wagon” is a pretty strong argument for not killing her

When the scum wagon was pretty heavily town driven, unless you want to argue that both aureal and ydrasse are scum in which case go ahead but it’d better be incredibly compelling

yeah that's not compelling at all sometimes scum lose control of a day and what are they gonna do when that happens, not crossvote and just claim scum?

Are you saying aureal/sheep just shit bussed each other? If so where?

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id say you probably win if i die today by going aureal > dunn

i dont think its cephrir

You also don’t think it’s fire?

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(!!!!! the hamster in the wheel is still reeling from thinking about that Egix post)

I still feel like fire is a good vote for reasons previously mentioned, @aisa in particular lmk if you’re leaning elsewhere as you’re my most solid TR

Ok I understand this might be frustrating, I think I want to yeet Ydra today

I think I’m basically at the same point I was a couple days ago, where I feel fairly good that flipping {fire, Ydra, Dunn} ends the game but trying to choose the exact yeet causes much anguish

For some extra context @Mena, I don't know how to handle your adamancy about fire because I agree that he's a decent flip. As demonstrated by the above post, he is one of the stops in the fantasyland dictatorship where I get to choose three eliminations
He's just not the first stop

Okay noted, I will probably go with you on it depending on deadline, but it’s a shame that the RL timing has worked out like this bc I feel like if I could have a good back and forth with ydra I could quite probably get to a solid read on her

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But I just don’t think I’ll be able to, I worked all day today and I’m not sure if it will be same again tomo, I’m just doing personal life admin now before sleep

Will try to check in again but it may be similar to this, tomo I mean

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Aisa is definitely town, aureal is v likely town by virtue of being the CW, it’s possible ydra is scum who bussed but more likely is that both scum were defending sheep I think

Which makes it fire + (ceph/dunn)

The fact that ceph is trying to angle for a lim on aureal here instead of limming on the CW to sheep makes me think it’s more likely him vs dunn but I need to read them both in ISO to check that

Also while I think fire is the absolute right play for today we shouldn’t rush day

You need a way better reason to clear aureal

Do I? Cause I really think “was on scum wagon while flipped scum was on her wagon” is a pretty strong argument for not killing her

When the scum wagon was pretty heavily town driven, unless you want to argue that both aureal and ydrasse are scum in which case go ahead but it’d better be incredibly compelling

yeah that's not compelling at all sometimes scum lose control of a day and what are they gonna do when that happens, not crossvote and just claim scum?

Are you saying aureal/sheep just shit bussed each other? If so where?

im just saying that i don't think it's impossible they were forced into voting for each other

I mean I guess I agree with that, sure

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FYI for thread I just got to the summer camp I’m working at so… i will be posting when I can but please ping me in specific things I need to see

I still feel like fire is a good vote for reasons previously mentioned, @aisa in particular lmk if you’re leaning elsewhere as you’re my most solid TR

@aureal also ping me if you want me to look at stuff

What do you think of how sheep tries to keep up the fire wagon as pressure starts to come towards him? About here through page 86

viewtopic.php?p=13817258#p13817258

While also claiming that scum don't want it, to boot. Heh.

Sorry this is potentially 3 pages and I don’t have that in me right now, magic 8 says ask again tomorrow

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To those who worried the wagon on enchant was too easy yesterday — look how much more difficult the fire wagon is proving to be and there is a more meaningful effort to counterwagon onto skitt

still reading but I think this is an unfair point to make as fire is playing the game while enchant did something other than that

I mean I’m reading fire but idk why you asked me to go back when this… does not look good for you

like i said it's mostly about aureal

idc how i look lol

mostly its just a really significant portion of the game where things are loosely starting to shift away from the tvt of me vs skitter and people are opening up to the possibility of limming sheep, murmurings are building from multiple town angles, and it isn't ever really fully shut down until implosion shows back up basically like "ok we're doing fire or skitter"

i think in that time in between, the gamestate was kinda up in the air, and seeing how everyone responded to that shift in the game and how they may have tried in influence it or react to it is really telling

and i think notably ceph and aureal responded in a towny way and then i think egix showed up with one of the scummiest possible reactions to the situation imo

i guess maybe its less significant without knowing my alignment lole but idk just flip me and then look at it afterwards

This is maybe the towniest thing you have posted this game, but also as mentioned I don’t have the energy to look now but I will reread those pages with aureal in mind again