STEVEN UNIVERSE 2 - GAME OVER

mastin2 · Mon Oct 31, 2016 11:35 am

In post 10082, Almost50 wrote:ISO Titus to get a neat table then myself for some minor remarks.

Said iso table is also inaccurate because one, I was never allied with Yume (that was an ability), and two, I was allied with McMenno every phase except the pregame-to-D1. (So, selected him N1 for all future times up to his death.)

The table was never properly fixed.

In post 10094, grapes wrote:I'd lynch em both if I could.

Unfortunately, a Shiro lynch is about realistic as a kraskaesque lynch.
Both have the highest chance of flipping scum of any players, sure, but neither are going to go through today.

The only viable lynch in Shiro/kraska/TWIE is TWIE.

mastin2 · Mon Oct 31, 2016 11:56 am

Also, basically, at this stage...who can the scum actually

be

?

Serious question, when you think about things.
farside being scum has a

prerequisite

of TWIE being scum, so we flip TWIE first and if he's town farside is too; if he's scum, we can revisit the idea of farside being scum though I have highlighted my reasons for why I doubt this to be true.
If we get a scum lynch in the top-voters (such as, say, kraskaesque), we inherently clear the others (Almost50, RR, and farside in this case).
The crystal gems are not groupscum, period.
grapes is cleared by TWIE's result and is basically a universal townread even without the result. (And I've voiced my opinion on why TWIE is unlikely to have lied about this even if he is scum.)

So the possible scum groups are:
Almost50/farside22/Reasonably Rational/kraskaeaque (0-1 scum in here, no more)
...And:
Shadow_Step/Shiro/TheFuzzylogic99/Creature/TheWayItEnds

We have a good POE pool there, especially in the latter group. It's just a matter of interactions.
TWIE flipping town clears farside. I also am basically at the point where if Almost50 is scum I've conceded defeat and as far as I know every other player is at that point as well since he is a universal townread on the same tier as grapes. Meaning that if TWIE flips town, the only possible scum up there are RR and kraskaesque. If TWIE flips scum, again, farside becomes possible, but hey, if that happens we lynched scum. (Again, why TWIE is the superior lynch for today.)
We also have some decent interactions. Certain teams are less likely than others.

None of this is new stuff. It's simple processing of basic facts.
We have either two, or three, scum in the second group.
We have either zero, or one, scum in the first group.

Lynching Creature narrows the second group, sure, but it tells us nothing about the first group.
Lynching TWIE narrows the second group, while also telling us facts about the first group.
Also, ask yourself:

What does Creature flipping town/scum mean to you?
Creature flipping town means there's still 2-3 scum in the second group and nothing more to me. Creature flipping scum means there's 1-2 scum in the second group still and there's maybe a chance useful info can be gleaned from the extra scum body interactions-wise but nothing concrete as far as I can tell.

What does TWIE flipping town/scum mean?
TWIE flipping town means there's still 2-3 scum in the second group and that farside from the first group is 100% town. TWIE flipping scum means there's still 1-2 scum in the second group and we can look at all this pressure on Creature to determine if Creature is a scumbuddy or if scum were trying to save TWIE by going for Creature instead.

Ergo, lynch TWIE.

mastin2 · Mon Oct 31, 2016 12:07 pm

As for me, personally.
I'll be honest.
If TWIE flips town, I don't actually have a clue who the scumteam will be right now. Creature is someone I'm increasingly feeling isn't scum. Shadow_step has some fairly decent reasons for not being scum. I've held Thefuzzylogic as being a townread. Yet of them, a TWIE townflip

necessitates

one being scum, because even

with

Shiro as scum, and one of the top-voters (RR/kraska) as scum, there's a missing slot. If TWIE flips town, we definitely lynch either RR or kraskaesque though, and if a townflip lynch the other, because to my memory, there's no 3-man combo of Shiro/Creature/Fuzzy/Shadow which is particularly viable.

If TWIE flips scum, I'll admit farside being scum is possible. But I don't particularly think it's probable. At this stage, I mostly think that TWIE flipping scum means kraska and Shiro are scum as well, with an outside shot at RR replacing TWIE. (RR has done an awful lot to specifically avoid joining a wagon which makes an awful lot of sense.) Though, if RR were scum, Shiro probably wouldn't be. (I do not believe scumbuddies would be vouching so hard for each other.)

So, TWIE flipping scum = kraska + Shiro, or RR + Creature/Fuzzy/Shadow in all likelihood.

I don't exactly have what would be called a solid plan.

But I feel like of all the players here, I'm the closest to having anything approaching a semblance of one.

mastin2 · Mon Oct 31, 2016 12:16 pm

This all being said.
MoI being right about both Creature and RR being scum would be tipping-my-hat-worthy, and it's not like it's entirely out of the question; there's a damn-good reason he has the title that he has. But personally, I don't think it's true.
If RR is scum, then the most likely buddies would be Fuzzy/Shadow.
RR being scum isn't impossible with TWIE as town, but is unlikely unless both TWIE and Creature are town, because RR's stance on the two wagons we have right now is weird, to say the least.

I'd put it this way. RR as scum has scumbuddies in about this order: TWIE > Fuzzy/Shadow > Creature > Shiro. (kraska and farside are impossible.)

RR as town is more likely than RR being scum, though, because there's only a few very select scumteams where it's viable for them to be scum.

mastin2 · Mon Oct 31, 2016 12:25 pm

So, basically:
TWIE as scum has scumbuddies as kraskaesque > Shiro > Fuzzy/Shadow/Creature OR RR > Fuzzy/Shadow > Creature > Shiro.
RR as scum has scumbuddies as TWIE > Fuzzy/Shadow > Creature > Shiro.
kraskaesque as scum has scumbuddies as Shiro > TWIE > Fuzzy/Shadow/Creature.
farside as scum has scumbuddies as TWIE (a necessity) > Fuzzy/Shadow/Creature.
Creature as scum has scumbuddies as kraskaesque > Shiro > Fuzzy/Shadow > RR > farside.
Shiro as scum has scumbuddies as kraskaesque > TWIE > Fuzzy/Shadow/Creature > RR > farside.

Ideally, all of those ties would be sorted, and that's one of the main efforts I'm trying to work on: getting the currently-tied people to...not be tied.

mastin2 · Mon Oct 31, 2016 12:28 pm

(If you're wondering what the "as town" lists would be: fuck that, that's too much work to figure out and is largely worthless and conjunction/speculation anyway. The as-scum lists have actual logic based on their in-thread behaviors combined with mechanics at hand. With some speculation, admittedly, but FAR less than an as-town one would have.)

mastin2 · Mon Oct 31, 2016 1:17 pm

Yellow = bottom voter; cyan = top voter.
I want people to take a look at a few key VCs and see what they think about it. If you have knowledge of what dead players said about them, share any relevant parts they said, too.

In post 7576, Varsoon wrote:
farside22
(9):

Titus, SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion
,
TheWayItEnds
,
grapes
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Skybird
,
Yume, Xkfyu

DrippingGoofball
(6):

Shiro
, Thefuzzylogic99
,
Not Chara, McMenno
,
Creature
,
farside22

Shadow_Step
(2):

kraskaeaque
,
Firebringer

Creature
(1):

Almost50

Xkfyu
(1):

Shadow_Step

Not Voting (3):

Reasonably Rational
,
mastin2, randomidget

In post 8089, Varsoon wrote:
farside22
(LYNCH?):

Titus, SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion
,
TheWayItEnds
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Skybird
,
Yume, Xkfyu, Not Chara, McMenno
,
kraskaeaque
, Almost50

DrippingGoofball
(3):

Shiro
, Thefuzzylogic99, Creature

SnarkySnowman
(3):

mastin2, grapes
,
farside22

kraskaesque
(1):

Shadow_Step

Shadow_Step
(1):

Firebringer

Not Voting (2):

Reasonably Rational
,
randomidget

In post 8412, Varsoon wrote:
SnarkySnowman
(7):

McMenno
,
farside22
,
Titus, Not Chara, grapes, mastin2
,
TheWayItEnds

DrippingGoofball
(4):

Thefuzzylogic99
,
SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion
,
Creature

farside22
(1):

Almost50

Not Voting (9):

Shadow_Step
,
Xkfyu
,
Skybird
,
Shiro
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Reasonably Rational,
kraskaeaque
,
Firebringer, randomidget

In post 8587, Varsoon wrote:
DrippingGoofball
(LYNCH):

Thefuzzylogic99
,
SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion
,
Creature
,
Titus
,
Shiro
,
Firebringer, grapes, McMenno
,
farside22
,
Not Chara

SnarkySnowman
(2):

mastin2
,
TheWayItEnds

farside22
(1):

Almost50

Shadow_Step
(1):

kraskaeaque

Not Voting (5):

Shadow_Step
,
Xkfyu
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Reasonably Rational
,
randomidget

mastin2 · Mon Oct 31, 2016 1:25 pm

I have some pretty important thoughts on the second and third in particular, for those who are wondering what I'm getting at. All four I feel were at a really critical stage of the game in telling us relevant information.

That's not to say other VCs can't give good analysis, either before or after. (Though most of the after-DGB ones are highly subjective--I already looked at them.)
But these four VCs show something really relevant to the current gamestate, and I'm wondering who else here can see what I'm seeing with them.

mastin2 · Mon Oct 31, 2016 1:27 pm

In post 10112, Creature wrote:It's worth noting that it's likely the scum team didn't know DGB was the traitor.

Humor me, then. What do you think the scumteam not knowing DGB = traitor does to the VCs?

And even if you don't think that's the case...what would your analysis be if you assume the scumteam was

assuming

DGB was the traitor? Does it change anything?

I want you to give both versions if they differ, even if you believe the former over the latter.

mastin2 · Mon Oct 31, 2016 1:48 pm

Oh and by the way, just as a reminder (not related to the previous, but which I saw as part of my Varsoon iso):

In post 3223, Varsoon wrote:
SirCakez
(LYNCH):

Not Chara, mastin2, Obi-Wan Kenobi/Titus, McMenno, grapes
,
Shiro
,
Xkfyu, SnarkySnowman, Yume
,
kraskaeaque
,
Klingoncelt
,
Reasonably Rational

farside22
(3):

killthestory/MagnaofIllusion, Firebringer
,
Almost50

Shiro
(2):

farside22
,
Skybird

McMenno
(2):

CooLDoG/Loopdan/Mathblade
,
Thefuzzylogic99

Obi-Wan Kenobi/Titus
(1):

SirCakez

Not Voting (5):

Foxbird/Twin Wings/Shadow_step
,
randomidget
,
TheWayItEnds
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Creature

Do you believe the wagon on SirCakez was all town?

If so, where are the scum outside? You have Fuzzy/Shadow_step/TWIE/Creature, but aside from fuzzy, they're all Not Voting--so a follow-through to the question would be: WHY would there be an all-town wagon, with the majority of the scum Not Voting, giving absolutely no resistance? This is something VERY important I want an answer from RR in particular on: if the wagon on SirCakez was all town, why are there no signs of serious scum resistance? Skybird wasn't even applying her double-vote! (At least, if the VC is correct.)

If not, here's an important question to RR:

who is the scum on it?

You obviously know your own alignment, but what of Shiro and kraskaesque? They're literally the only possible names to be scum if you don't think the wagon is all-town.
Though I can ask that same question of everyone.

Essentially, what I'm saying here is:
If this is an all-town lynch, it makes no sense. Scum are not applying any resistance to the wagon whatsoever. Skybird wasn't voting at full strength, and the VAST majority of our uncleared players were in the Not Voting category.
If this is not an all-town lynch, there are only three slots which have not been explicitly cleared: Shiro, kraskaesque, and Reasonably Rational.

Is it any wonder I hold the Shiro/kraskaesque suspicion I do?

mastin2 · Mon Oct 31, 2016 2:18 pm

A tl;dr for now of this past page:

Play-based analysis:

TWIE: kraska>Shiro>Fuzzy/Shadow/Creature
OR
TWIE: RR>Fuzzy/Shadow>Creature>Shiro.
RR: TWIE>Fuzzy/Shadow>Creature>Shiro.
kraska: Shiro>TWIE>Fuzzy/Creature>Shadow. (I don't know why I didn't have Shadow at the back already, butyeah.)
farside: TWIE(necessity)>Fuzzy/Shadow/Creature.
Creature: kraska>Shiro>Fuzzy/Shadow>RR>farside.
Shiro: kraska>TWIE>Fuzzy/Shadow/Creature>RR>farside.

Key Votecounts:

SirCakez was all-town except for Shiro/kraska/RR;
Shadow/TWIE/Creature all on Not Voting.
Fuzzy on McMenno.

farside was voted by TWIE, DGB, and Skybird;
DGB was voted by Shiro, Fuzzy, Creature, and farside.
kraska was voting Shadow.

farside was later voted by TWIE/DGB/Skybird/kraska;
DGB was voted by Shiro/Fuzzy/Creature.
Shadow was voting kraska.

SnarkySnowman was voted by guaranteed-all-town save farside/TWIE;
DGB was voted by Fuzzy/Creature.

DGB was voted by Fuzzy/Creature/Shiro/farside.
TWIE voted Snarky;
kraska voted Shadow.

I'm trying to gather thoughts on these, and I do have some already, but I want to hear feedback on what these mean from others.

mastin2 · Mon Oct 31, 2016 3:02 pm

By the way: private gamesolving mode was engaged.
If TWIE flips town, I've narrowed the probabilities down to four possible scumteams. Two of them with both Shiro/kraska in them, two with only one of them. (There is actual analytical reasoning for at least one of them to be scum ASIDE FROM the SirCakez lynch--holding tight to my chest the exact reasoning right now. I guarantee you, absolutely guarantee you, that if TWIE flips town, a minimum of one of them

must

be scum.)

If TWIE flips scum, it gets a bit more difficult; I've got six possible scumteams: one is Shiro/kraska, and then Shiro appears individually in one scumteam and kraska individually in one other scumteam.

I'm not sure if I want to share my logic, but before day's end, I should definitely share which combos I have in mind.

mastin2 · Mon Oct 31, 2016 3:06 pm

Slight preview though:
TWIE flipping town gives me a lynch order of kraska > Shiro > Fuzzy > Creature;
TWIE flipping scum gives me a lynch order of kraska(town) > Shiro > Shadow/Fuzzy/Creature (god I wish I could narrow that list down further, but I can't)
OR:
kraska(scum) > Shiro > Fuzzy/Creature. (Depends on what kraska flips. I do not see kraska as scum with Shadow.)

mastin2 · Mon Oct 31, 2016 3:13 pm

*Forgot this in the kraska town:
Shiro > Shadow/Fuzzy/Creature > RR.

There's only

one

scum pair I can see as viable for RR, and a prerequisite for it is TWIE flipping scum, and one other player also flipping scum. So, they're not quite cleared as confirmed town from my analysis...but they're pretty damn close.

mastin2 · Mon Oct 31, 2016 3:38 pm

After eating (I did all that on an empty stomach!), I'd like to further say:
TWIE flipping town gives me a lynch order of kraska > Shiro > Fuzzy > Creature;
TWIE flipping scum gives me a lynch order of kraska(town) > Shiro > Fuzzy/Creature > RR > Shadow (though, he may be equal to RR, not sure)
OR
kraska(scum) > Shiro > Fuzzy/Creature.

The change is that upon reflection, I still find Shadow_step to be considerably less likely than the other players in contention for being scum.
So basically, remember what I said earlier about me not having a plan?

I've fixed that.
Now, REGARDLESS OF WHAT THEWAYITENDS FLIPS, I have a plan. The plan is...imperfect. Ideally, I would have the TWIE-scum scenario with no ties, and I have one maybe two ties in there.

I'm also not quite sure we have the mislynch currency in order to pull it off. I need to have two mislynches available: today, and tomorrow, in order to ensure a town win.
TWIE flipping scum could also potentially require three mislynches available rather than two (yes, ironically enough, a scum lynch on TWIE actually increases the number of mislynches we need because there's more potential scumteams if TWIE is scum compared to if TWIE is town). If we can afford that, then sure, yeah, we win regardless so long as nobody deviates from the order I dictate, buuuuuuuut...I'm not quite at the level where I can say we've got a 100% surefire win here.

mastin2 · Mon Oct 31, 2016 3:52 pm

I'm going to be blunt about what this all means:
Off of my calculations, there are NO scenarios where all of TWIE, kraskaesque, and Shiro are town.
Lynching through them, ideally in that order, may or may not get you all of the scum, but it will get at least one if not two. (With a chance of all three.)

I'm pretty sure my math holds. Simple deduction and analysis with basic conclusions.

mastin2 · Tue Nov 01, 2016 10:30 am

In post 10134, MagnaofIllusion wrote:The best bit of your last page was highlighting that at least one of RR / Shiro / Kraska is likely scum. But that isn’t enough to run through your list on faith. Sorry. Hunting for scum in thread is as important as the number crunching you seem to be leaning heavily on.

How fortunate for me that I can explain this at any time!

I'll start out by giving an apology. When I said I had reason for one of kraska/Shiro to be guaranteed scum upon a TWIE townflip, even without the SirCakez lynch, I thought that was true, but upon a review of my notes, I used the SirCakez lynch in factoring my read a little more than I thought, just...not in the way you'd think.

In post 8412, Varsoon wrote:
SnarkySnowman
(7):

McMenno
,
farside22
,
Titus, Not Chara, grapes, mastin2
,
TheWayItEnds

DrippingGoofball
(4):

Thefuzzylogic99
,
SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion
,
Creature

farside22
(1):

Almost50

Not Voting (9):

Shadow_Step
,
Xkfyu
,
Skybird
,
Shiro
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Reasonably Rational,
kraskaeaque
,
Firebringer, randomidget

It starts here. This is a huge wagon, on a now-known mislynch. If TWIE is scum, this distribution seems plausible enough...but what if he isn't? If TWIE is town, then that is an all-town seven-strong wagon on SnarkySnowman. So the question at hand is...if TWIE is town...why did scum let a perfectly-valid mislynch go to waste, in favor of lynching DGB, a valued asset?

Well...

In post 7576, Varsoon wrote:
farside22
(9):

Titus, SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion
,
TheWayItEnds
,
grapes
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Skybird
,
Yume, Xkfyu

DrippingGoofball
(6):

Shiro
, Thefuzzylogic99
,
Not Chara, McMenno
,
Creature
,
farside22

Shadow_Step
(2):

kraskaeaque
,
Firebringer

Creature
(1):

Almost50

Xkfyu
(1):

Shadow_Step

Not Voting (3):

Reasonably Rational
,
mastin2, randomidget

In post 8587, Varsoon wrote:
DrippingGoofball
(LYNCH):

Thefuzzylogic99
,
SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion
,
Creature
,
Titus
,
Shiro
,
Firebringer, grapes, McMenno
,
farside22
,
Not Chara

SnarkySnowman
(2):

mastin2
,
TheWayItEnds

farside22
(1):

Almost50

Shadow_Step
(1):

kraskaeaque

Not Voting (5):

Shadow_Step
,
Xkfyu
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Reasonably Rational
,
randomidget

[/quote] Both before, and after, the farside reset, there were three names in particular voting for DGB: Thefuzzylogic, Creature, and Shiro. Now, I find the idea of that being a scumteam, of the scum putting all their eggs in one basket, absurd. So that can't be our scumteam. What it DOES indicate, though, is that at least one if not two of them are scum.

So if the scumteam can't be Fuzzy/Creature/Shiro, at least one must be town, and therefore one of Shadow/kraska/RR must be scum, as you yourself acknowledge, MoI. I view Shadow and kraska as mutually exclusive off of play. kraska and RR are mutually exclusive off of mechanics. Which leaves us at: Two of Fuzzy/Creature/Shiro PLUS one of kraska/RR/Shadow...
...OR, one of Fuzzy/Creature/Shiro PLUS both RR and Shadow. I feel Creature + RR is unlikely, as previously discussed. Similarly, I doubt Titus got stuck with two scum and that said two scum would use it as a chance to mutually vouch for each other, meaning Shiro + RR is also off the table for me. Meaning, if TWIE is town, we get:
Two of Fuzzy/Creature/Shiro PLUS one of kraska/RR/Shadow...
OR, Fuzzy+RR+Shadow.

Now, personally, I find Shadow_step to be unlikely as scum, because I maintain it to be unlikely for scum to have paired with scum on D1, and then to use "reasons" from their alliance PT to mutually justify a townread on the other. (See also: Shiro-RR above.) But aside from that, the Fuzzy-RR-Shadow scumteam is unlikely for one key reason: the two scum lynches we have had. post 3223, Varsoon"]

SirCakez

(LYNCH):

Not Chara, mastin2, Obi-Wan Kenobi/Titus, McMenno, grapes

,

Shiro

,

Xkfyu, SnarkySnowman, Yume

,

kraskaeaque

,

Klingoncelt

,

Reasonably Rational

farside22

(3):

killthestory/MagnaofIllusion, Firebringer

,

Almost50

Shiro

(2):

farside22

,

Skybird

McMenno

(2):

CooLDoG/Loopdan/Mathblade

,

Thefuzzylogic99

Obi-Wan Kenobi/Titus

(1):

SirCakez

Not Voting (5):

Foxbird/Twin Wings/Shadow_step

,

randomidget

,

TheWayItEnds

,

DrippingGoofball

,

Creature

[/quote]

In post 8587, Varsoon wrote:
DrippingGoofball
(LYNCH):

Thefuzzylogic99
,
SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion
,
Creature
,
Titus
,
Shiro
,
Firebringer, grapes, McMenno
,
farside22
,
Not Chara

SnarkySnowman
(2):

mastin2
,
TheWayItEnds

farside22
(1):

Almost50

Shadow_Step
(1):

kraskaeaque

Not Voting (5):

Shadow_Step
,
Xkfyu
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Reasonably Rational
,
randomidget

[/quote] Take a look at where this hypothetical scumteam is voting. In both lynches, a scumteam with this composition did not attempt a counterwagon, AND did not attempt to claim towncred from bussing. They just let the lynch happen, with no resistance whatsoever, and no encouragement whatsoever. That apathy is why I eliminated this as a possibility, thus, why TWIE flipping town clears RR, because there's no viable scumteam for them.

So, that gives six possible pairings:
Fuzzy/Creature/kraska
Fuzzy/Creature/Shadow
Fuzzy/Shiro/kraska
Fuzzy/Shiro/Shadow
Creature/Shiro/kraska
Creature/Shiro/Shadow

I did use the SirCakez lynch here a little: post 3223, Varsoon"]

SirCakez

(LYNCH):

Not Chara, mastin2, Obi-Wan Kenobi/Titus, McMenno, grapes

,

Shiro

,

Xkfyu, SnarkySnowman, Yume

,

kraskaeaque

,

Klingoncelt

,

Reasonably Rational

farside22

(3):

killthestory/MagnaofIllusion, Firebringer

,

Almost50

Shiro

(2):

farside22

,

Skybird

McMenno

(2):

CooLDoG/Loopdan/Mathblade

,

Thefuzzylogic99

Obi-Wan Kenobi/Titus

(1):

SirCakez

Not Voting (5):

Foxbird/Twin Wings/Shadow_step

,

randomidget

,

TheWayItEnds

,

DrippingGoofball

,

Creature

[/quote] Again, I find it unlikely we had an all-town lynch, and with RR as town, that indicates one of Shiro and kraska should be scum. But

furthermore

, I find the two Creature-Shadow combinations to be slightly less likely than the others, because of the same reason as I find the Fuzzy-RR-Shadow scumteam unlikely: it requires the scumteam to have put up basically zero resistance and zero attempts at towncred. That, aside from my natural Shiro/kraska suspicion, plus my lack of suspicion on Shadow_step.

Given this, I narrowed the possibilities down to:

Fuzzy/Creature/kraska

Fuzzy/Shiro/kraska

Fuzzy/Shiro/Shadow

Creature/Shiro/kraska

The bolded contain both Shiro and kraska, with the italicized containing only one of them. (It was looking at this which made me declare that we had a guaranteed scum between them, ignoring that I did make a couple of large assumptions prior to this point.)

Now, you might note that I listed Fuzzy above Creature. Well that was just pure simple gut on my part, in that I feel like given the choice between Fuzzy and Creature, Fuzzy somehow feels slightly more likely to be scum to me.

That's the TWIE townflip.
I'll do the TWIE scumflip in my next post.

mastin2 · Tue Nov 01, 2016 10:33 am

...Let me fix that because I know it'll be fucked up if people try to quote it. *ahem*

In post 10134, MagnaofIllusion wrote:The best bit of your last page was highlighting that at least one of RR / Shiro / Kraska is likely scum. But that isn’t enough to run through your list on faith. Sorry. Hunting for scum in thread is as important as the number crunching you seem to be leaning heavily on.

How fortunate for me that I can explain this at any time!

I'll start out by giving an apology. When I said I had reason for one of kraska/Shiro to be guaranteed scum upon a TWIE townflip, even without the SirCakez lynch, I thought that was true, but upon a review of my notes, I used the SirCakez lynch in factoring my read a little more than I thought, just...not in the way you'd think.

In post 8412, Varsoon wrote:
SnarkySnowman
(7):

McMenno
,
farside22
,
Titus, Not Chara, grapes, mastin2
,
TheWayItEnds

DrippingGoofball
(4):

Thefuzzylogic99
,
SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion
,
Creature

farside22
(1):

Almost50

Not Voting (9):

Shadow_Step
,
Xkfyu
,
Skybird
,
Shiro
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Reasonably Rational,
kraskaeaque
,
Firebringer, randomidget

It starts here. This is a huge wagon, on a now-known mislynch. If TWIE is scum, this distribution seems plausible enough...but what if he isn't? If TWIE is town, then that is an all-town seven-strong wagon on SnarkySnowman. So the question at hand is...if TWIE is town...why did scum let a perfectly-valid mislynch go to waste, in favor of lynching DGB, a valued asset?

Well...

In post 7576, Varsoon wrote:
farside22
(9):

Titus, SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion
,
TheWayItEnds
,
grapes
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Skybird
,
Yume, Xkfyu

DrippingGoofball
(6):

Shiro
, Thefuzzylogic99
,
Not Chara, McMenno
,
Creature
,
farside22

Shadow_Step
(2):

kraskaeaque
,
Firebringer

Creature
(1):

Almost50

Xkfyu
(1):

Shadow_Step

Not Voting (3):

Reasonably Rational
,
mastin2, randomidget

In post 8587, Varsoon wrote:
DrippingGoofball
(LYNCH):

Thefuzzylogic99
,
SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion
,
Creature
,
Titus
,
Shiro
,
Firebringer, grapes, McMenno
,
farside22
,
Not Chara

SnarkySnowman
(2):

mastin2
,
TheWayItEnds

farside22
(1):

Almost50

Shadow_Step
(1):

kraskaeaque

Not Voting (5):

Shadow_Step
,
Xkfyu
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Reasonably Rational
,
randomidget

Both before, and after, the farside reset, there were three names in particular voting for DGB: Thefuzzylogic, Creature, and Shiro. Now, I find the idea of that being a scumteam, of the scum putting all their eggs in one basket, absurd. So that can't be our scumteam. What it DOES indicate, though, is that at least one if not two of them are scum.

So if the scumteam can't be Fuzzy/Creature/Shiro, at least one must be town, and therefore one of Shadow/kraska/RR must be scum, as you yourself acknowledge, MoI. I view Shadow and kraska as mutually exclusive off of play. kraska and RR are mutually exclusive off of mechanics. Which leaves us at: Two of Fuzzy/Creature/Shiro PLUS one of kraska/RR/Shadow...
...OR, one of Fuzzy/Creature/Shiro PLUS both RR and Shadow. I feel Creature + RR is unlikely, as previously discussed. Similarly, I doubt Titus got stuck with two scum and that said two scum would use it as a chance to mutually vouch for each other, meaning Shiro + RR is also off the table for me. Meaning, if TWIE is town, we get:
Two of Fuzzy/Creature/Shiro PLUS one of kraska/RR/Shadow...
OR, Fuzzy+RR+Shadow.

Now, personally, I find Shadow_step to be unlikely as scum, because I maintain it to be unlikely for scum to have paired with scum on D1, and then to use "reasons" from their alliance PT to mutually justify a townread on the other. (See also: Shiro-RR above.) But aside from that, the Fuzzy-RR-Shadow scumteam is unlikely for one key reason: the two scum lynches we have had.

In post 3223, Varsoon wrote:
SirCakez
(LYNCH):

Not Chara, mastin2, Obi-Wan Kenobi/Titus, McMenno, grapes
,
Shiro
,
Xkfyu, SnarkySnowman, Yume
,
kraskaeaque
,
Klingoncelt
,
Reasonably Rational

farside22
(3):

killthestory/MagnaofIllusion, Firebringer
,
Almost50

Shiro
(2):

farside22
,
Skybird

McMenno
(2):

CooLDoG/Loopdan/Mathblade
,
Thefuzzylogic99

Obi-Wan Kenobi/Titus
(1):

SirCakez

Not Voting (5):

Foxbird/Twin Wings/Shadow_step
,
randomidget
,
TheWayItEnds
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Creature

In post 8587, Varsoon wrote:
DrippingGoofball
(LYNCH):

Thefuzzylogic99
,
SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion
,
Creature
,
Titus
,
Shiro
,
Firebringer, grapes, McMenno
,
farside22
,
Not Chara

SnarkySnowman
(2):

mastin2
,
TheWayItEnds

farside22
(1):

Almost50

Shadow_Step
(1):

kraskaeaque

Not Voting (5):

Shadow_Step
,
Xkfyu
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Reasonably Rational
,
randomidget

Take a look at where this hypothetical scumteam is voting. In both lynches, a scumteam with this composition did not attempt a counterwagon, AND did not attempt to claim towncred from bussing. They just let the lynch happen, with no resistance whatsoever, and no encouragement whatsoever. That apathy is why I eliminated this as a possibility, thus, why TWIE flipping town clears RR, because there's no viable scumteam for them.

So, that gives six possible pairings:
Fuzzy/Creature/kraska
Fuzzy/Creature/Shadow
Fuzzy/Shiro/kraska
Fuzzy/Shiro/Shadow
Creature/Shiro/kraska
Creature/Shiro/Shadow

I did use the SirCakez lynch here a little:

In post 3223, Varsoon wrote:
SirCakez
(LYNCH):

Not Chara, mastin2, Obi-Wan Kenobi/Titus, McMenno, grapes
,
Shiro
,
Xkfyu, SnarkySnowman, Yume
,
kraskaeaque
,
Klingoncelt
,
Reasonably Rational

farside22
(3):

killthestory/MagnaofIllusion, Firebringer
,
Almost50

Shiro
(2):

farside22
,
Skybird

McMenno
(2):

CooLDoG/Loopdan/Mathblade
,
Thefuzzylogic99

Obi-Wan Kenobi/Titus
(1):

SirCakez

Not Voting (5):

Foxbird/Twin Wings/Shadow_step
,
randomidget
,
TheWayItEnds
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Creature

Again, I find it unlikely we had an all-town lynch, and with RR as town, that indicates one of Shiro and kraska should be scum. But

furthermore

, I find the two Creature-Shadow combinations to be slightly less likely than the others, because of the same reason as I find the Fuzzy-RR-Shadow scumteam unlikely: it requires the scumteam to have put up basically zero resistance and zero attempts at towncred. That, aside from my natural Shiro/kraska suspicion, plus my lack of suspicion on Shadow_step.

Given this, I narrowed the possibilities down to:

Fuzzy/Creature/kraska

Fuzzy/Shiro/kraska

Fuzzy/Shiro/Shadow

Creature/Shiro/kraska

The bolded contain both Shiro and kraska, with the italicized containing only one of them. (It was looking at this which made me declare that we had a guaranteed scum between them, ignoring that I did make a couple of large assumptions prior to this point.)

Now, you might note that I listed Fuzzy above Creature. Well that was just pure simple gut on my part, in that I feel like given the choice between Fuzzy and Creature, Fuzzy somehow feels slightly more likely to be scum to me.

That's the TWIE townflip.
I'll do the TWIE scumflip in my next post.

mastin2 · Tue Nov 01, 2016 10:40 am

The math for a TWIE scumflip doesn't change much, and I'll tell you why. For a start, farside's still town. Why?

In post 7576, Varsoon wrote:
farside22
(9):

Titus, SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion
,
TheWayItEnds
,
grapes
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Skybird
,
Yume, Xkfyu

DrippingGoofball
(6):

Shiro
, Thefuzzylogic99
,
Not Chara, McMenno
,
Creature
,
farside22

Shadow_Step
(2):

kraskaeaque
,
Firebringer

Creature
(1):

Almost50

Xkfyu
(1):

Shadow_Step

Not Voting (3):

Reasonably Rational
,
mastin2, randomidget

That's why. (That, ignoring kraska joining the wagon later.) TWIE, DGB (admittedly a traitor), and Skybird

all

were on the wagon there, so she remains incredibly unlikely to be scum in my eyes.

The other main change? Shiro/Fuzzy/Creature still has scum...but it's one, rather than two.
That leaves kraska/RR/Shadow as the other pool, with exactly one scum in there, no more and no less. Unfortunately, unlike a TWIE townflip, there's not much to be gleaned further from the key votecounts. But since the rest of my analysis remains the same, we're left with the possible combinations:

Shiro/kraska

Shiro/Shadow
Fuzzy/kraska

Fuzzy/RR
Fuzzy/Shadow

Creature-kraska

The italicized teams are the ones which have one of Shiro/kraska on them.

If you're wondering about a scumteam combo not on there, feel free to ask, but the analysis should be self-evident enough.

And, yes. This analysis does mean that literally the only scenario I see RR scum in is if Fuzzy is also scum. They simply don't fit as a scumbuddy for anyone else. And it makes more sense for them to be scum with TWIE than not scum with TWIE, both by my analysis and by their play.

mastin2 · Tue Nov 01, 2016 11:11 am

In post 10166, Creature wrote:Who would you rather ally from Shiro/Shadow/me?

That would be Shadow_step, for a multitude of reasons. Among them, unless he has a factional ability that is tied to allying, he has no power from allying, so I give him nothing except my own power by allying, and he's the person in the POE lynchpool I currently most trust to be town.

In post 10164, TheWayItEnds wrote:why is it. that when people pretend to do analysis with votecounts they lose the ability to think?

Except none of the analysis I've done there is reliant entirely on the votecounts, especially not in regards to you. They highlight trends I was mostly already thinking of, prior to pointing them out, and that's one reason I feel like I really have something here, regardless of your alignment.

I freely admit my analysis makes some assumptions, but these assumptions are not at all unreasonable to make.
If you disagree, feel free to point me to which ones, because most of what I said isn't reliant on those votecounts. I chose those votecounts because I feel they, in particular, augment the analysis I was already doing. I didn't use more subjective votecounts, either from earlier or later. It was votecounts from two key areas: our scum lynch days, and no other times.

mastin2 · Tue Nov 01, 2016 11:21 am

In post 10169, TheWayItEnds wrote:how about any sentence where you made a speculation on a wagon based on me being on it?

Which I did a grand total of once, and as a sidenote at that! Very specifically, I said, TWIE being scum on there would make it plausible. I used that word carefully. Because IF you are scum, it doesn't matter if your vote wasn't yours. Scum know that you're scum, and would know where DGB was placing your vote. In other words, IF you are scum, then you count as voting SnarkySnowman even if it wasn't you casting the vote as far as VCA goes.

And if you're town?

Guess what?

My analysis remains: that was an all-town wagon!

So no.

Try again.

mastin2 · Tue Nov 01, 2016 11:26 am

(Like, there's a difference between probable and plausible. I did not say probable. I said the much weaker, plausible: a bit stronger than possible, but ultimately not something which is even close to assured. And that, for the above reason, is true. TWIE as scum makes it

plausible

for no other scum to be on it, for fear of SnarkySnowman being seen as a scum counterwagon to DGB, among other possibilities. But the analysis I did was, by and large, reliant on a TWIE

townflip

, not scumflip, and if you're town like you say you are, TWIE, then my analysis holds true because it was seven all town votes on SnarkySnowman, even if one of them was controlled by scum.)

mastin2 · Tue Nov 01, 2016 11:46 am

Let me put it to you another way, too.
Being extra generous, our lynchpool would be:
farside22
Reasonably Rational
kraska

Shadow_Step
Shiro
TheFuzzylogic99
Creature
TheWayItEnds

Divided into those two groupings.
So, what pairs are possible?
farside-TWIE-Shadow
farside-TWIE-Shiro
farside-TWIE-Fuzzy
farside-TWIE-Creature
(Farside has TWIE as scum a prerequisite.)
I find farside as unlikely scum for many many MANY reasons, but these are the only possible farside scumteams. For those who still cling to farside suspicion...which of these is what you say?

RR-Shadow-Shiro (unlikely thanks to RR-Shiro-Titus alliance)
RR-Shadow-Fuzzy
RR-Shadow-Creature (I've discussed why RR's play today makes this unlikely)
RR-Shadow-TWIE
RR-Shiro-Fuzzy (unlikely thanks to RR-Shiro)
RR-Shiro-Creature (double-unlikely)
RR-Shiro-TWIE (unlikely thanks to RR-Shiro)
RR-Fuzzy-Creature (unlikely thanks to Creature)
RR-Fuzzy-TWIE
RR-Creature-TWIE (Unlikely thanks to Creature)

Note that there are a grand total of three possible scumteams for RR, if you're being extra-generous. TWIE, Shadow, and Fuzzy are each scum in two of them. This is why RR is unlikely as scum to me.

kraska-Shadow-Shiro (unlikely thanks to Shadow)
kraska-Shadow-Fuzzy (unlikely thanks to Shadow)
kraska-Shadow-Creature (unlikely thanks to Shadow)
kraska-Shadow-TWIE (unlikely thanks to Shadow)
kraska-Shiro-Fuzzy
kraska-Shiro-Creature
kraska-Shiro-TWIE
kraska-Fuzzy-Creature
kraska-Creature-TWIE

Shadow-Shiro-Fuzzy
Shadow-Shiro-Creature
Shadow-Shiro-TWIE
Shadow-Fuzzy-Creature
Shadow-Fuzzy-TWIE
Shadow-Creature-TWIE

Shiro-Fuzzy-Creature (unlikely thanks to DGB wagon)
Shiro-Fuzzy-TWIE

Fuzzy-Creature-TWIE.

Pretty sure that's all of them.

So tell me.
Which of these look likely? Which look unlikely? Which are plausible, implausible, probable, improbable? I did my homework on all of them and gave my feedback on each of these.

mastin2 · Tue Nov 01, 2016 11:58 am

Oops. Missed Shiro-Creature-TWIE.
farside-TWIE-Shadow
farside-TWIE-Shiro
farside-TWIE-Fuzzy
farside-TWIE-Creature
(Farside has TWIE as scum a prerequisite.)

RR-Shadow-Shiro (unlikely thanks to RR-Shiro-Titus alliance)
RR-Shadow-Fuzzy
RR-Shadow-Creature (I've discussed why RR's play today makes this unlikely)
RR-Shadow-TWIE
RR-Shiro-Fuzzy (unlikely thanks to RR-Shiro)
RR-Shiro-Creature (double-unlikely)
RR-Shiro-TWIE (unlikely thanks to RR-Shiro)
RR-Fuzzy-Creature (unlikely thanks to Creature)
RR-Fuzzy-TWIE
RR-Creature-TWIE (Unlikely thanks to Creature)

kraska-Shadow-Shiro (unlikely thanks to Shadow)
kraska-Shadow-Fuzzy (unlikely thanks to Shadow)
kraska-Shadow-Creature (unlikely thanks to Shadow)
kraska-Shadow-TWIE (unlikely thanks to Shadow)
kraska-Shiro-Fuzzy
kraska-Shiro-Creature
kraska-Shiro-TWIE
kraska-Fuzzy-Creature
kraska-Creature-TWIE

Shadow-Shiro-Fuzzy
Shadow-Shiro-Creature
Shadow-Shiro-TWIE
Shadow-Fuzzy-Creature
Shadow-Fuzzy-TWIE
Shadow-Creature-TWIE

Shiro-Fuzzy-Creature (unlikely thanks to DGB wagon)
Shiro-Fuzzy-TWIE
Shiro-Creature-TWIE

Fuzzy-Creature-TWIE.

For the math-inclined: there are four scenarios where farside can be scum.
There are three scenarios where RR can be scum.
There are five scenarios where kraska can be scum.
There are nine scenarios where Shadow can be scum.
There are ten scenarios where Shiro can be scum.
There are eleven scenarios where Fuzzy can be scum.
There are nine scenarios where Creature can be scum.
There are fourteen scenarios where TWIE can be scum.

Mind you, I don't particularly think this math means much. If it did, then the lynch order would be TWIE > Fuzzy > Shiro > Creature/Shadow > kraska > farside > RR.
But I thought it was a fun factoid all the same.

mastin2 · Tue Nov 01, 2016 12:12 pm

Hmm, looks like in the above, I forgot kraska-Fuzzy-TWIE. So, add one to each of their points above. (Six/Twelve/Fifteen.)

Spoiler: Just for fun:

mastin2 · Tue Nov 01, 2016 10:47 pm

It's really simple.
farside-TWIE-Shadow
farside-TWIE-Shiro
farside-TWIE-Fuzzy
farside-TWIE-Creature
(Farside has TWIE as scum a prerequisite.)

RR-Shadow-Shiro (unlikely thanks to RR-Shiro-Titus alliance)
RR-Shadow-Fuzzy
RR-Shadow-Creature (I've discussed why RR's play today makes this unlikely)
RR-Shadow-TWIE
RR-Shiro-Fuzzy (unlikely thanks to RR-Shiro)
RR-Shiro-Creature (double-unlikely)
RR-Shiro-TWIE (unlikely thanks to RR-Shiro)
RR-Fuzzy-Creature (unlikely thanks to Creature)
RR-Fuzzy-TWIE
RR-Creature-TWIE (Unlikely thanks to Creature)

kraska-Shadow-Shiro (unlikely thanks to Shadow)
kraska-Shadow-Fuzzy (unlikely thanks to Shadow)
kraska-Shadow-Creature (unlikely thanks to Shadow)
kraska-Shadow-TWIE (unlikely thanks to Shadow)
kraska-Shiro-Fuzzy
kraska-Shiro-Creature
kraska-Shiro-TWIE
kraska-Fuzzy-Creature
kraska-Fuzzy-TWIE
kraska-Creature-TWIE

Shadow-Shiro-Fuzzy
Shadow-Shiro-Creature
Shadow-Shiro-TWIE
Shadow-Fuzzy-Creature
Shadow-Fuzzy-TWIE
Shadow-Creature-TWIE

Shiro-Fuzzy-Creature (unlikely thanks to DGB wagon)
Shiro-Fuzzy-TWIE
Shiro-Creature-TWIE

Fuzzy-Creature-TWIE.

These are every possible scumteam. Literally, every single scumteam possible. If it's not listed here, it's not possible. (Unless I accidentally missed a name or two, which has been known to happen. Twice so far.)

Spoiler: If TWIE is town, these are what's left:

Removing the ones unlikely, we get:
RR-Shadow-Fuzzy

kraska-Shiro-Fuzzy
kraska-Shiro-Creature

kraska-Fuzzy-Creature
Shadow-Shiro-Fuzzy
Shadow-Shiro-Creature

Shadow-Fuzzy-Creature

Those are literally the ONLY combinations viable upon a TWIE townflip.

Spoiler:

And removing those unlikely, you get:
farside-TWIE-Shadow
farside-TWIE-Shiro
farside-TWIE-Fuzzy
farside-TWIE-Creature
RR-Shadow-TWIE
RR-Fuzzy-TWIE
kraska-Shiro-TWIE
kraska-Fuzzy-TWIE
kraska-Creature-TWIE
Shadow-Shiro-TWIE
Shadow-Fuzzy-TWIE
Shadow-Creature-TWIE
Shiro-Fuzzy-TWIE
Shiro-Creature-TWIE
Fuzzy-Creature-TWIE.

So, I'm asking people to compare the TWIE town combos, to the TWIE scum combos, and to tell me which ones THEY see as likely/unlikely. I've stated why I've got four candidates in mind for a TWIE townflip. (The four which do not involve Shadow-Creature, yet have at least one of kraska/Shiro as scum.)
The weakness in my strategy is that I haven't quite elaborated on the fifteen scenarios upon a TWIE scumflip, but what I

have

done, is said I think you're town even in it, and I also have good reason to doubt RR-Shadow-TWIE (if that was the scumteam, again, they gave no resistance to either scum wagon and gained little credit for SirCakez and absolutely none for DGB), so those are basically out.

Which gives us...ten pairings if TWIE flips scum, a little over double what we get if TWIE flips town.
So feedback on both would be appreciated, but the TWIE flipping scum is the one I need more refined, because basically, if TWIE flips town the game should be solved; lynch kraska, then lynch Shiro, and if the game's not over, lynch one/both of Fuzzy/Creature.
If TWIE flips scum, I don't quite have the same synergy, though I do have a fair number of ideas.

mastin2 · Wed Nov 02, 2016 7:06 pm

In post 10193, MagnaofIllusion wrote:
In post 10176, mastin2 wrote:But the analysis I did was, by and large, reliant on a TWIE townflip, not scumflip, and if you're town like you say you are, TWIE, then my analysis holds true because it was seven all town votes on SnarkySnowman, even if one of them was controlled by scum.)
You do get that this makes no sense, correct? I mean you are talking from a standpoint of wagon analysis then if you see a TWIE Town flip then by rote it means that one of the votes on the wagon was put there by scum (DGB) and the fact that it is a “all Town wagon” isn’t a valid analysis point in the least. Scum chose to obfuscate their involvement in the wagon but still were the driving force in placing one of the votes there.

A fine thought in theory, but what both TWIE--and now you--are failing to take into consideration is that if TWIE is town, DGB could not have been in communication with the scumteam.
Ergo, if TWIE is town, DGB did not know SnarkySnowman was also town.
Ergo, if TWIE is town, DGB had no way of knowing she was voting town.

Her vote--rather, TWIE's proxied vote--is entirely null for the purposes of scumteam analysis given a TWIE townflip. Because while the scumteam could safely assume she was scum (see also: her publicly claiming traitor), she had no channel of communication with THEM.

In other words?
The wagon still counts as an all-town wagon.

Because there is no informed minority on it. DGB counts as an UNINFORMED minority.

VCA relies, on its absolute most fundamental level, as a series of calculations based off of the FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLE of the informed minority vs the uninformed majority. You use VCA in your own way, so you know this as does anyone else who uses it. So when you encounter a special situation such as a player who is NOT informed but is part of the minority...what do you do? Counting them identically to as if they were an informed minority is egregious.

mastin2 · Wed Nov 02, 2016 7:09 pm

Also yeah. Going with Shadow_step.

mastin2 · Wed Nov 02, 2016 7:20 pm

And by the way: if you want to hold to the idea "DGB communicated on D2 rather than D3 then!", well...
If the chart is trusted,
RR with Yume (Yume was town)
S_S with grapes (TWIE town means grapes town)
A50 with Xkfyu (Xkfyu was town)
Skybird with farside (TWIE town means farside town)
Shiro with randomidget (randomidget is town)
kraska with Not Chara (Not Chara was town)
Do correct any of those. But that leaves:

Fuzzy unknown
Creature failed with Shiro

Literally the only two possible names there where DGB could have communicated, because all the other alliances have been confirmed to have been working, as far as I know.
So again, point holds true.

mastin2 · Tue Nov 08, 2016 1:12 pm

Well fuck.

I was honestly expecting TWIE to flip town there.

Now I have to actually

work

.

I'm going to try something, but I'm leaving for Tae Kwon Do like, five minutes ago, so I don't have the time to do it right now. But basically, at this stage, I want to show every possible team, explain which teams I am eliminating, and then of the remaining teams, rank them most likely to least likely, as close as I can anyway.

For now, hold please on any notion of lynching.

Among what I thought was some things like maybe Shiro being town, so I DO need the time to calculate these things.

I also don't have the game nearly as locked down with TWIE as scum as I would have had he been town, so I need a little time to remedy that.
Feel free to give me any big revelations in the mean time. I'll read them when I return, and factor them in to my analysis.

Just...don't do anything rash, or anything stupid.

And farside, just so you know, that ESPECIALLY applies to you: you make a false move and I'll lynch you even though I don't actually think you are scum because right now it's actually possible you are (no matter how unlikely), and I'm not going to be bothered to defend you right now.

mastin2 · Tue Nov 08, 2016 1:14 pm

(Right now my lynch preference goes something like kraska > Creature/Fuzzy > Shiro > RR > Shadow > farside, but that's not off of analysis. I'll be back soon to do that.)

mastin2 · Tue Nov 08, 2016 5:40 pm

In post 10257, MagnaofIllusion wrote:
@Mastin
- any thoughts on why scum chose to kill me over you?

Several, few of them productive.
One, we're about equally confirmed-not-scum, so it's not like they have reason to kill me first.
Two, you hold the stronger, and also less-well-known, role between us. I am a mostly-known entity in the game. You're known to be a gem, and you're known to hold control over a strong power, but also have secrets of your own you have held close to your chest.
Three, you implied there was a great benefit to be had in allying with randomidget which the scum would fear.
Four, my analysis going into the night was mostly reliant on a TWIE townflip. With him flipping scum, I've got far less control over the game.
Five, I sincerely doubt the scumteam is actually TWIE-kraska-Shiro now (in spite of kraska and Shiro having individually been my strongest suspects), yet kraska and Shiro were next on my lynch line. If one--or both--were town, scum would have incentive to keep me alive. But I had already concluded this during the night.
Six, depending on who the members are and their experiences with us, they may view you as a stronger player in general than me.
Seven, there have been talks of me being protected, multiple times. There have been no such talks for you as far as I can recall, which means there's always the possibility they thought I was being protected yet you were open to attack.

For a start.

The closest to being useful is #5, but again, that tells me little I hadn't already deduced even without a TWIE-scumflip.

mastin2 · Tue Nov 08, 2016 5:42 pm

Also, I succeeded in my alliance.

mastin2 · Tue Nov 08, 2016 6:20 pm

Spoiler: Every Scumteam combination

Excluding the literally impossible ones of top voters (RR/Almost/farside/kraska cannot be paired together), this is what you have.
I'm confirmed town by Yume.
The crystal gems are confirmed, and I firmly believe that they are who they say they are and that they have no security breach, for multiple reasons.

So that leaves:

Spoiler: Possible Scum Combinations

This much is easy. This much is a given.

Now comes the hard part: speculation.

I believe grapes is town. We know Not Chara was allied with grapes, and that thanks to Not Chara's power, grapes was given a passive immunity to the nightkill, which grapes was (if I recall Not Chara-through-MoI's claim correctly) unaware of.
As such, there is a significant chance that he was, legitimately, the actual nightkill N1. We know that, almost assuredly,

someone

was going to be the nightkill. And grapes had protection. And the kill fits, especially since grapes was a driving force behind the SirCakez lynch. In other words, while TWIE flipped scum (and therefore his claim cannot be taken entirely at face value), I think he was sincere about this. We know his role wasn't a lie. So he might have told the truth. It was nothing we weren't going to find out anyway.

Furthermore, does anyone actually think grapes is scum?
Speak up if you do. I'll wait for Not Chara-through-MoI to answer that, too. Does anyone, honestly, actually think grapes has a realistic chance of being scum?

I know we're at the phase of the game where we should be questioning assumptions of a player being confirmed town.
But personally, I don't see grapes as scum, to the point where if he is scum, I would be comfortable admitting defeat if grapes were scum.
If you disagree with this, feel free to present me with a reason why, because unless I am otherwise swayed, I'm eliminating teams with him on them.

So,

Spoiler: First round eliminations

Next up: Almost50. For a start, I do not think scum align with scum the way he did on D1. He's also one of the stronger proponents of the idea that scum might have done that, and I don't see him advocating that if he himself were scum allied with SirCakez. Aside from that, I simply don't think his play comes from scum, so I'll say the same for him as I did for grapes:
If there is

anyone

who thinks Almost50 is actually scum, speak up. Give me good reason to doubt him. Because he looks insanely town to me. I'm almost positive this is the same him from Gistou, and he was town there, so...I'm quite comfortable eliminating pairings with him. That IS an assumption on my part, and if we lose the game because of it, I do apologize, but I can't help but make that call. Which gives us...

Spoiler: Second round eliminations

From here, I'm not going to eliminate any players, at least not yet. Not even farside, who I think is town.

I will, however, eliminate pairings.

kraska-Shadow is basically impossible to me.
I might be able to eliminate other pairings later, but for the time being,

Spoiler: The list

So let's reorder that.

There is 0-1 scum in the RR/kraska/farside group.
There are 1-2 scum in the Shadow/Shiro/Fuzzy/Creature group.
(Fun math by the way: that means the first group has each member as 17% likely to be scum, and the second group to be 37.5% chance to be scum per person.)

farside-Shadow
farside-Shiro
farside-Fuzzy
farside-Creature
RR-Shadow
RR-Shiro
RR-Fuzzy
RR-Creature
kraska-Shiro
kraska-Fuzzy
kraska-Creature

Shadow-Shiro
Shadow-Fuzzy
Shadow-Creature
Shiro-Fuzzy
Shiro-Creature
Fuzzy-Creature

Of these teams, I am comfortable eliminating RR-Shiro. Unless you think Titus paired with two scum, AND said scum then used that alliance as a mutual "trust me", it doesn't work.

So,
farside-Shadow
farside-Shiro
farside-Fuzzy
farside-Creature
RR-Shadow
RR-Fuzzy
RR-Creature
kraska-Shiro
kraska-Fuzzy
kraska-Creature

Shadow-Shiro
Shadow-Fuzzy
Shadow-Creature
Shiro-Fuzzy
Shiro-Creature
Fuzzy-Creature

Let me re-order those teams (topvoter scum/all-bottom scum) in approximate order of likelihood to me right now:

kraska-Creature
RR-Fuzzy
kraska-Fuzzy
RR-Creature
kraska-Shiro
farside-Shiro
farside-Fuzzy
farside-Creature
RR-Shadow
farside-Shadow

Fuzzy-Creature
Shiro-Creature
Shiro-Fuzzy
Shadow-Shiro
Shadow-Creature
Shadow-Fuzzy

That's not saying "kraska-Creature is our scumteam!", with "Shadow-Fuzzy is the least-likely scumteam!", for clarity.

There's a division between the two.
The top is if there's scum in the topvoters; the bottom is if there's no scum in the topvoters.

So right now, I mostly want to narrow this down even further than it already is.

mastin2 · Tue Nov 08, 2016 6:34 pm

My analysis from yesterday had this to say:
Fuzzy/Shiro/Creature contains one scum, no more and no less. (Not quite sure if I can trust that.)
kraska/RR/Shadow(/farside) contains one scum, no more and no less. (The no more is definitive, the no less...less so.)
farside is incredibly unlikely to be scum.
One of Shiro/kraska/RR is incredibly likely to be scum.
Shadow-Creature looks unlikely as a pair.
I find Shadow doubtful as scum aside from that anyway.

If I had to rank teams right now, it'd go something like this:

kraska-Creature
RR-Fuzzy
kraska-Fuzzy
RR-Creature
Fuzzy-Creature
kraska-Shiro
Shiro-Creature
Shiro-Fuzzy

...But that's just guesswork and I'm not at all happy with leaving the game to what effectively amounts to gut.

mastin2 · Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:59 pm

In post 10270, Shadow_step wrote:I think I would have bussed TWIE like crazy after that GS guilty on him, I'd expect scum did the same thing.

It's not as clear-cut as that.
What I largely need to do is look at the analysis from the day of the SnarkySnowman lynch and onward. (I'm basically looking to record every post the relevant players make in regards to the relevant players.)
I'm looking for a few key factors, among them being Creature's alignment: if we had dueling scum wagons yesterday, then yeah, no duh, scum are going to lynch TWIE over Creature. But if Creature

isn't

scum, what then?

mastin2 · Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:08 pm

In post 10282, Creature wrote:Okay, let's wait mastin2 analysis now that Shiro is scum.

Well for a start it's awful hypocritical of you to condemn Shiro in these circumstances off of a "lie" given your own play so no thank you, I will not be instantly assuming Shiro is scum.

Yes, this is coming from the person who had Shiro as her second-strongest scumread.

We're gonna lynch Shiro for this inevitably, I'm sure, the question is whether it's today or later and also on whether Shiro is actually scum for it.

I'm not certain yet.

People want me to be a town leader, here. I was a leader D1, I was a leader yesterday, and we got scum lynches those days.
But you also have to remember I was a leader D2, and that one wasn't a scum lynch. We rushed that day. I'm not going to rush this one. Preferably, we won't drag things out to deadline, of course. But this is the lategame. We've got all these mechanics in play. We've got all these interactions in play. We've got all these alliances that have failed or succeeded.

Oh...and speaking of mechanics.

Fuck.

I just realized there may be an answer for the Beachapalooza event which we were all overlooking.
But I'm not sure V can give us an answer.

Skybird was a double-voter. Could she double vote in the Beachapalooza event? If she could, then literally every single Beachapalooza piece of analysis we've done would need to be recalculated from scratch. (It would mean there was no missing vote on me, freeing up a scum voter to be elsewhere.)

mastin2 · Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:15 pm

At this stage, by the way:
I would appreciate every player listing who they submitted for an alliance every stage, and whether it failed or succeeded.
I would also like everyone who has claimed to restate their claim, in the full, every detail about what they have shared. If you're partially claimed, then reshare the partial claim. Basically, a start to finish of your relevant info.

Pregame. Day One. Night One. Day Two. Night Two. Day Three. Night Three. Day Four. Night Four. Day Five. Night Five. Share anything and everything you have claimed thusfar.

For that matter, I am

strongly

considering a limited massclaim among our favored lynch candidates. People like farside full-claiming (she's mostly-claimed but not fully-claimed I believe), Shiro fullclaiming, Creature fullclaiming (another mostly-claimed, but not fully-claimed), and Fuzzy fullclaiming.

I feel that crossreferencing mechanics with play, we might be able to fully catch the scumteam right now.

mastin2 · Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:25 pm

In post 10286, MagnaofIllusion wrote:Why would scum want to lynch their traitor again?

That's the golden question at hand.

In post 8587, Varsoon wrote:
DrippingGoofball (LYNCH):

Thefuzzylogic99
,
SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion
,
Creature
,
Titus
,
Shiro
,
Firebringer
,
grapes
,
McMenno
,
farside22
,
Not Chara

SnarkySnowman (2):

mastin2
,
TheWayItEnds

Farside22 (1):

Almost50

Shadow_Step (1):

Kraskaeaque

Not Voting (5):

Shadow_Step
,
Xkfyu
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Reasonably Rational
,
randomidget

...Yet unless the scumteam is Topvoter + Shadow_step,

by necessity

, we know at least one scum was on the wagon. Literally the only possible scumteams with no bussing are kraska/Shadow, RR/Shadow, and Almost50/Shadow.

You clearly don't hold this belief given your Creature case among other things. So, at least one scum had to have bussed. The question isn't so much, "why would they want to do this?", so much as it is, "why did they do it?". Because we know they did.

mastin2 · Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:37 pm

In post 10337, Reasonably Rational wrote:Kraskas towniness comes from the the low likelihood of scum using her powers to neutralize their own event, an event which would have forced town to no lynch, and by her power not being used to enable skybirds strongman.
Shadows comes from the fact that a scum goon seems unlikely in a role madness game, and because skybird, who had an investigative ability, allying with them on D1 doesn't make sense if they were scum.
Fuzzys comes from his event usage, and is probably the weakest of the three, given that we now know at least one of the likely lynches on that day, if not for snarky, was definitely scum.
Shiro knew what I knew, that is, that a kill on MoI wouldn't work, so I can't see a scum team which included shiro taking a shot at MoI without the benefit of -4 stress. It's not impossible that they did I guess, because the information we had didn't say EXACTLY what would happen, just that MoI would be able to continue playing and maybe they hoped he'd be stumped or something, but it seems really unlikely.

I actually am willing to go along with this Shiro analysis. I don't think Shiro-RR is a team. As such, at least one must be town. And as such, if they say they knew MoI was unkillable...they knew MoI was unkillable. And MoI himself said he knows he was shot at. Plus given I had a reason for thinking Shiro was town (that I can't remember), I'm perfectly willing to accept this.

I also agree with your Shadow_step analysis. It's much the same as my own.

Fuzzy is meh. I neither agree nor disagree with you there.

However, reading kraska's...to me, everything you're saying as a reason for kraska not to be scum seems like a reason FOR kraska to be scum to me.

That being said: I'm still thinking right now of lynching Creature, and yes believe it or not farside's not out of the picture altogether.

At this point, my lynch order would probably go:
Creature/kraska > Fuzzy > farside > Shadow/RR/Shiro.
But I need to do more work to be certain of this.

mastin2 · Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:44 pm

In post 10366, Creature wrote:Still think I invented this?

No, but truthfulness != town.

TWIE lied about having a vig shot for obvious reasons, but other than that his claim matches word for word what he flipped.
SirCakez told the truth word for word about most of his abilities.
DGB told the truth on many things up to and including being a traitor.
Skybird told the truth on everything she claimed.

None of the scum have told a bold-faced lie. If they claimed it, they backed it up, for the most part.

mastin2 · Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:45 pm

Creature:

In post 10361, mastin2 wrote:I would appreciate every player listing who they submitted for an alliance every stage, and whether it failed or succeeded.

mastin2 · Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:50 pm

In post 8625, kraskaesque wrote:I WANNA PLAY LUCHA

Also, I've hesitated on whether to claim this but I actually know what this refers to. It's a subgame of sorts, a game within the game.

mastin2 · Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:52 pm

In post 8632, kraskaesque wrote:dear friends
i can tamper with the stress and increase it by 4
should i ?

For what it's worth still think kraska is scum for offering this yet not following through and doing it.

mastin2 · Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:59 pm

In post 6760, Skybird wrote:
Near Town

RR – His interactions show me that he is trying to solve the game. Also the Hydra dissonance. I feel this shows that both heads are active and trying to solve the game.
TheFuzzylogic99 – Based on Math’s read since Math flipped town.
Almost50
Grapes

Null

Kraskaeaque
Xkfyu – I wanted to have a PT with him to better sort him. Part of why I am leaning scum on him is his claim he made in our PT. He’s also making no attempt to sort my alignment. I am not seeing anything in the thread that makes me think he’s town. But I have other input from Steven indicating that he is town. So I'm not sure which way to go here.

Almost Scum

Farside – I felt she was town in our PT. The things putting her here instead of the next level up is the stubbornness and game play like blowing up the Joy Ride and the weird claim. I’m not opposed to lynching her but would rather lynch from my scum pool right now.

Scum Pool

DGB – no attempts to figure the game out and weird claims/gambits.
TWIE – Haven’t seen much from him (if anything). I know this is the way that TWIE normally is, but by now I would expect to start seeing some insights into players.
Snarkysnowman

Still Processing

Shadow Step
Shiro
Not Chara
MagnaofIllusion
McMenno
Creature
Randomidget
Firebringer

Worth mentioning: Skybird knew DGB was scum at this point. So she was bussing both DGB and TWIE, sort of an inverted rule of three (two scum and one town).

We know she has two scumbuddies left.
Fuzzy/RR/(Almost)/(grapes) are in the Near Town.
kraska is in null.
farside is in near-scum.
Shadow/Shiro/Creature are in the Still Processing.

The question to ask is...where would Skybird place her two scumbuddies?
Are they both in near town? (No.) Both in Still Processing? (Extremely unlikely.)

If not, then which two categories do you think Skybird placed her scumbuddies?

I personally find it basically impossible for that Still Sorting list to be all town, so Shadow/Shiro/Creature should have a scum name in it.
And Fuzzy/RR/kraska/farside should also have a scum name in it as a result.

mastin2 · Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:02 pm

Every way I'm slicing it, right now it looks like Fuzzy/kraska/farside/Creature are the top candidates for being scum here.
I have a minor bias in thinking farside is town.
I have a minor bias in thinking Creature is scum.
I have a major bias in thinking kraska is scum.

mastin2 · Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:04 pm

In post 8643, kraskaesque wrote:
In post 8638, Shadow_step wrote:VOTE: Snarky
Gg
this a guilty?

Also, this is extremely out of place for someone who was scumreading Shadow_step.
It looks like scum who are hoping/trying to take advantage of a town-V-town fight.

mastin2 · Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:08 pm

In post 8700, Creature wrote:This is why we lynch TWIE first.

By the way, main thing I'm looking for is Creature's stance on TWIE post-guilty. He was saying this a lot on D3.

mastin2 · Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:10 pm

In post 8703, Shadow_step wrote:What is the case on twie?

This line is concerning to me though.
It's not possible if kraska is scum, but if kraska is town then Shadow is someone I'd want to keep an eye on at the least.

mastin2 · Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:33 pm

Easily kraska.
But where I'm at right now.
Is basically:
If you believe that SirCakez was an all-town wagon, the scumteam is by necessity comprised of Fuzzy/Creature/Shadow/farside/Almost50.
If you believe that DGB was an all-town wagon, the scumteam is by necessity comprised of Shadow + kraska/RR/Almost.

If you believe in both the ONLY possible scumteam is Shadow + Almost50.
If you believe the first but not the second, then one or two of Fuzzy/Creature/farside is/are scum bussing DGB.
If you believe the second but not the first, then one of kraska/RR must be scum bussing SirCakez.

If you believe in neither, well then that's where things get interesting.

mastin2 · Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:34 pm

I'm leaving for dancing, so I'll continue later.

There's so many calculations to do, but we're very damn close to having the answers we want here.

mastin2 · Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:09 pm

Basically, the reason I think the game's on lockdown...
I've made like half a dozen groupings of "this group" versus "that group", of one scum in each.
If I effectively crossreferenced those different groups, then all of the different "this group versus that group" pairings should, in theory, when overlapped...give us only one pair, one team, where there's a member of both groups. To my head, that'd be something like kraska-Creature, but I haven't done my work yet.

In the Shadow/Shiro/Creature group, I see it as Creature > Shadow > Shiro right now.
In the Fuzzy/farside/kraska/RR group, I see it as kraska > farside > Fuzzy > RR right now.

In the kraska/RR/farside(/Almost) group, I see it as kraska > farside > RR right now.
In the Shadow/Shiro/Creature/Fuzzy group, I see it as Creature > Fuzzy > Shadow > Shiro right now.

I do not believe SirCakez was an all-town wagon.
So Shiro/kraska/RR should have one scum in it. (

Reasonably Rational:

Given you know your alignment, and given your townread on Shiro, what do YOU think about the SirCakez wagon? Do you think kraska is scum bussing, or do you think it was an all-town wagon? Those are literally your only two options.) There, I go kraska > RR.
The SirCakez wagon almost by necessity (barring kraska/Shiro) has one scum minimum off of it: Fuzzy/Creature/Shadow/farside.
There, I get Creature > Fuzzy > farside > Shadow.

I do not believe DGB was an all-town wagon. So, Creature/Fuzzy/Shiro/farside has 1-2 scum in it;
kraska/RR/Shadow has 0-1 scum in it.
Creature > Fuzzy > farside > Shiro.
kraska > Shadow > RR.
Fuzzy/Shiro/Creature should have exactly one scum in it.
Creature > Fuzzy > Shiro.

No matter how I look at it, my lynch order isn't changing.
Creature/kraska > Fuzzy > farside > Shadow > RR/Shiro.

And this makes sense from pair perspective, too.
Creature-kraska
kraska-fuzzy
Creature-farside
Creature-Fuzzy
Creature-Shadow
kraska-Shiro
Creature-Shiro

Most likely to least likely pairings assuming one of them minimum being scum. (Though, I'll need to double-check with the possibility of Skybird having a double-vote during Beachapalooza and the implications thereof. Because if she did, that would potentially open up things like, say, farside-kraska, depending on the team math.)

mastin2 · Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:15 pm

If we were to follow what I wanted to do...
VOTE: kraska.
We would be lynching kraska today.

I'm putting a vote out there to put a vote out there, because I'm expecting nobody else to also be voting kraska, yet to make it clear that if this decision were purely mine and mine alone to make, kraska would be the lynch.

If I were to make a decision that took others' viewpoints into account, by FAR the lynch of the day would be Creature. Right now, that lynch has my blessing: I think it'll hit scum with a very high chance realistically speaking. I can't really oppose that for anything other than purely selfish reasons, now, can I? So it's probably what we'll end up doing. Creature is likely to be scum. He is also viewed as scum by the majority of people.

Soyeah.
I have to ask people:

If you think Creature is scum--and most of you do--who do you think is his partner?

I've been showing the things which make me think it's kraska. But what do YOU think?

mastin2 · Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:49 pm

My stance on cops is clear enough: the absolute LAST thing you do is investigate your damn scumreads.

And it's not like you have a right to complain.

I landed us a guilty we otherwise would not have received.

mastin2 · Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:57 pm

In post 10407, kraska77 wrote:I can't form alliances if stress is -2 or lower

Wait.
We were at -4 stress, slice of life, once before.
With the SnarkySnowman lynch, we went into the night at -4 stress.

You successfully allied with farside that day.

kraska.

You've got some 'splainin' to do.

mastin2 · Wed Nov 09, 2016 10:00 pm

Like.
If you can't form an alliance at -2 stress or lower...
...Then why were you able to form an alliance with farside post-Snarky lynch when we were at -4?

I'm calling bullshit here.
We KNOW you allied with farside successfully, because of that day's event.
We absolutely KNOW it.

Yet now, you're claiming you shouldn't have been able to have formed something...which we KNOW you formed.

mastin2 · Wed Nov 09, 2016 10:12 pm

In post 1, Varsoon wrote:Furthermore, many roles will also gain unique abilities due to being in an Alliance.
Allying with other players will always resolve independent of all other abilities.
Unless otherwise stated, no ability will normally interact with each player's ability to Ally.
There are mechanics in this game which directly influence Alliances, including abilities that may allow a player to access Alliance PTs they are not a part of.

Relevant OP section.

So no, not really.

On policy alone if nothing else, I think the lynch order should be kraska/Creature > the other > farside right now.

Because my bullshit meter is off the charts.

mastin2 · Wed Nov 09, 2016 10:19 pm

In post 9119, kraskaesque wrote:Hi I'm also so far out of the loop

Also if kraska was so out of the loop...why did kraska even submit an alliance with farside successfully?

mastin2 · Wed Nov 09, 2016 10:56 pm

It's another point against you.
You've been repeatedly claiming to be "out of the loop".
Yet your actions seem to suggest anything but. They seem to demonstrate you know precisely what you're doing at every moment.

mastin2 · Wed Nov 09, 2016 10:59 pm

In post 9440, kraskaesque wrote:good then we're almost on the same page
i may be wrong about shadow, i guess, but his vote hopping is weird and none of his scumreads feel organic

Doing my reread I'd also like to point out this looks pretty blatantly like sucking up to conftown.

mastin2 · Thu Nov 10, 2016 1:02 pm

In post 10452, Creature wrote:
In post 10451, kraska77 wrote:In a three person lylo I become mod confirmed town
Everyone, are you safe with this?

Not particularly, no.

However,
VOTE: Creature.
I feel kraska should be allowed the chance to live long enough to use the role duplication power.

Also, right now:
We have MoI with a power that will soon confirm a player.
We have kraska with a power which could potentially confirm a player AND turn them BP.
We have a lynchpool of RR/kraska/farside|Fuzzy/Shadow/Creature/Shiro.
There's reason to believe RR/Shiro aren't scum. (Though, them being cleared would be appreciated.) There's reason to believe Shadow isn't scum. That limits the lynchpool to kraska/farside/Fuzzy/Creature.
If we decide to let kraska live long enough to use that power, then that leaves farside/Fuzzy/Creature as lynch options.

I am okay with this, especially considering my kraska vote was meant as a vanity vote.

mastin2 · Thu Nov 10, 2016 1:10 pm

In post 10488, grapes wrote:Mastin, are you a gem?

Tough question to answer.

I'm a

corrupted

gem.
I have the town wincon. Don't make me look at my role PM to paraphrase it again, that's a lot of effort. Aligned with Earth. Not gems. Not some other third party. Town. Was privately confirmed as such to Yume. I got to talk with Yume, but not the other gems. (Except by proxy, of Yume conveying what I said, of course.)

So, yes, that means that if kraska is telling the truth...we had one 1-way mason, a 5-man masonry, an IC, Shadow's ability, an ability to copy the IC, AND a 3p lylo confirmation in the same game.

That does seem like a little bit of a stretch.

mastin2 · Thu Nov 10, 2016 8:39 pm

Almost50, I did address the possibility of there being a method by which Skybird could vote me withOUT a scumbuddy backing her up.

I'm just not sure V can give us an answer, even though Skybird has flipped, and the Beachapalooza event has concluded.
If nobody else, RR might be able to get an answer because it was their event, though I suppose there's no harm in publicly asking.

mastin2 · Thu Nov 10, 2016 8:43 pm

In post 8592, Varsoon wrote:
EVENT:
Sworn to the Sword

If used during Episode 1, the following will happen:
You will gain a double-vote for the rest of the game.

Mod:

Would Skybird's double vote allow her to apply her vote twice during any special event requiring voting?

mastin2 · Fri Nov 11, 2016 2:27 pm

In post 10549, MagnaofIllusion wrote:I'm leaning kraska over Creature now. Have anything I'm missing from prior days to help solidify that read for me?

The simplest answer would be to control-f my three-page iso (well pages 2 and 3 at least) for kraska mentions. But I have the time, and I don't feel like being a snide jerk right now, so I'll go do that for ya. About half of it won't be of much use, but you asked for me to give you what I had, and this is what that is.

In post 5627, mastin2 wrote:
In post 5478, grapes wrote:VOTE: Kraskaesque
Understandable. I really empathize with why you voted after 5477.

In post 6151, mastin2 wrote:
In post 5865, kraskaesque wrote:Wtf? You "empathize" with why he voted after 5477? You "get it"? You "really do"?
Yes.
I understand
exactly
why he voted you. I understand why he saw it as scummy. I understand why he thinks you're scum. I understand that, and I can't say I really disagree. The best I can give you is that I might not agree. Because you've lost your towncred. You had it early-on. And then you coasted.
A lot.

A lot, a lot.

So you're sitting on the south side of null.

Want towncred back?

Then do something town.
This aint it.
If you don't town it up, I will support lynching you tomorrow.

In post 7731, mastin2 wrote:Going into the night, I had a POE pool which looked something like this: kraskaesque//DrippingGoofball/Shadow_step, in approximately that order but with lots of guesswork involved. kraskaesque is my top scumread. As in, they're strongly, STRONGLY read as scum. kraskaesque. By both my analysis, and by an overlook of their play. (Iso them, you'll see some of what I'm getting at.)

In post 7732, mastin2 wrote:It's a combination of things. Their contributions to this game (rather, lack thereof), some hypocrisy on their part, flat pushes with no conviction (empty tone, essentially), plus some really bad, damning positioning in VCA.

Go iso them yourself and see if you can figure out what I mean by this. And also, iso the mod and see where kraskaesque falls on key wagons. (Keep also in mind: SirCakez was bussed. Proof?
Where's his counterwagon?
If scum made an effort to save SirCakez, why is there no actual counterwagon? They gave up on him at some point, which means at some point...they started bussing.)

In post 7768, mastin2 wrote:
In post 7745, kraskaesque wrote:explain the "some hypocrisy on their part" part
That would be your "case" against Shadow. I use air quotes for good reason.

In post 7819, mastin2 wrote:
In post 7773, Reasonably Rational wrote:Yeah, that's the main problem I have with your case kraska. I asked you to make a case on shadow using JUST his iso, not foxbirds, and I don't believe you ever did so.
You're quite correct on kraska.

In post 7826, mastin2 wrote:
In post 7788, McMenno wrote:my eyes are bleeding is that normal
If you actually tried reading kraskaesque's wall of text? Then yes.
I mean, I suppose you
could
read it, if you needed any further evidence for why kraska's scum, but otherwise...

(This in reference to 7787.)

In post 7828, mastin2 wrote:
In post 7804, farside22 wrote:kraska scum game is more lurky with very little reason for scum reads.
Okay. Serious question. If this isn't a lurky game with very little reason for scumreads.

What the fucking hell
is
?!?

Because, um. Yeah.
That's basically the HEART of my case on kraskaesque: their absolute lurkfest of an iso with very little reasoning for their scumreads, spanning across the whole game.

In post 7837, mastin2 wrote:
In post 3223, Varsoon wrote:
SirCakez (LYNCH):

grapes
,
Shiro
,
Kraskaeaque
,
Reasonably Rational

Farside22 (3):

Almost50

Shiro (2):

Farside22, Skybird

McMenno (2):
Thefuzzylogic99

Obi-Wan Kenobi (1):
SirCakez

Not Voting (5):
Foxbird, TheWayItEnds, DrippingGoofball,
Creature
Not quite accurate, but deleted = no chance of being scum, strikethrough = strong (maybe mechanical) reason to believe not scum, underline = strong read as not scum, italics = weaker (less-substantiated, speculative) reason to not be scum.
SirCakez had no effective counterwagon. You can see spots where scum could, feasibly, be, but otherwise, the entirety of the possible locations for scum are: on the SirCakez wagon, and in the Not Voting pile.
And if you look at kraskaesque, they do literally join
right
at the prime bussing spot, at a time where his lynch was inevitable.
The number of people Not Voting there is suspicious, no?
It's almost as if scum knew SirCakez was flipping scum, knew that lynch couldn't be stopped, and were trying to avoid being caught on it.

Also, run a cross-reference of the names on Not Voting/SirCakez with the names of those who claimed to have not voted/voted not in the top in the Beach event. RR, kraskaesque, and grapes are literally the only four excluded. ALL of Shiro/Shadow_step/TWIE/DGB fall in the grouping of worthless/no votes. I also have reason to believe Shiro is town.
Giving a more limited pool of Shadow_step//TWIE/DGB.

In post 7851, mastin2 wrote:My case against kraskaesque relies mainly on two factors: their lackluster play, and their bad voting pattern in established VCA.

In post 7856, mastin2 wrote:
In post 7853, Reasonably Rational wrote:if you prefer Kraskaesque can you explain it? Your approach and ours are really different, as you know. Explain it to me like I'm five.
First off: speculation. If the scumteam has a rational thinker...I think it could be at least one head of kraskaesque. I don't have any rational explanation to justify this. This is my first game with either of the heads as far as I know, so it's not like I have intimate knowledge of them. I don't even have a solid psychological profile. But my gut is telling me, for some reason, that at least one head of kraskaesque is deceptively smart, able to make calculated plays and run the risks and roll the die with smart action choices.

I really wish I had more experience with them to confirm, either alignment would really work because mechanical knowledge as scum tends to not mystically disappear when the slot is town. (Quite the contrary, actually! It's more well-hidden as scum.) So, an inexplicable
feeling
that they are the missing piece in the puzzle, for why the scumteam has made the choices they have.

Second, they fit the same profile for scum play. They have been avoiding the major wagons. The only exception? SirCakez...at the time his lynch became inevitable.

Third, they have made zero pushes that had substance to them.

Fourth, they've been lurking a lot, and this is especially egregious because they are a hydra and neither head has had a marked V/LA that I can recall, at least to my knowledge.

Fifth, hypocrisy: a huge part of their case against Shadow_step is off of Foxbird's (and later, the hydra with Foxbird) inactivity, when Foxbird was V/LA for most of the game. Another huge part of their case against Shadow_step? Aside from inactivity, a lack of content...but a look at their iso will reveal the majority of it to be fluff, and the few times they make a push, it is empty and reasonless, without much substance.

Sixth, their lack of broad reads. You know they have a scumread on Shadow_step. Okay. What about other reads?

They've been narrowly on one subject, and one subject only, for pretty much the whole game.

In post 8136, mastin2 wrote:
In post 7976, kraskaesque wrote:The people who allied with yume seem to have polar opinions on farside. This is pretty weird and I'm trying to figure out what's going on here, stop calling this fishing
Okay, so this is pretty much textbook scum middlemanning. Peacekeeping.
This is a scum peacekeeper.

Remember how I said Titus was a town peacekeeper? I described it way back near the very beginning of D2.
In that wall, 3381, I describe what a scum peacekeeper is.

And this?

THIS is the scum counterpart.

In post 8138, mastin2 wrote:
In post 7988, kraskaesque wrote:Mastin and moi having polar opinions on farside should have made people inclined to ask wtf is going on
Like. Town peacekeeping: recognizing the issue, trying to resolve it, and give direction to it. Scum peacekeeping: pointing the issue out and doing fuckall to solve it.
Tell me which of the above this peacekeeping post is?

In post 8141, mastin2 wrote:
In post 8009, Almost50 wrote:It's really getting to me that each of you has her own "couple of players" she insists on being Town for no apparent reason.
(This post, by the way? Town peacekeeper. He tries to dissolve the conflict and give input. Contrast kraskaesque.)

In post 8158, mastin2 wrote:
In post 8140, Titus wrote:
In post 8138, mastin2 wrote:
In post 7988, kraskaesque wrote:Mastin and moi having polar opinions on farside should have made people inclined to ask wtf is going on
Like. Town peacekeeping: recognizing the issue, trying to resolve it, and give direction to it. Scum peacekeeping: pointing the issue out and doing fuckall to solve it.
Tell me which of the above this peacekeeping post is?
A scum peacekeeper just tells everyone to play nice and see it the other way.
Kraska wants to get to the bottom of this here and know why.
Except, that's fucking literally all kraskaesque was doing.
Your definition for a scum peacekeeper is correct! Telling people to play nice and see the other way. But that's exactly what the post is.
Compare it to your peacekeeping. Compare it to Almost50's. Compare it to mine when I do it.
It's night and fucking day.

In post 8143, mastin2 wrote:
In post 8089, Varsoon wrote:
Farside22 (LYNCH?):
TheWayItEnds,
DrippingGoofball
,
Skybird
,
Kraskaeaque
,
Almost50

DrippingGoofball (3):

Shiro
, Thefuzzylogic99,
Creature

SnarkySnowman (3):

grapes
,
Farside22

Kraskaesque (1):

Shadow_Step

Shadow_Step (1):

Not Voting (2):
Reasonably Rational
Justsayin'.

In post 8162, mastin2 wrote:
In post 8150, Titus wrote:All Shadow did was point at people and say look at them.
You sure you're reading players right?
'Cause that's what kraskaesque was doing.

In post 8937, mastin2 wrote:
In post 8783, Titus wrote:Scum picked you. Ever wonder why Mastina?
Not in the least, no. Smart scumplay is strategically dispersing and claiming of their votes. Scum voting me, and having one scum back them, is reasonable.Scum voting you, and having one scum back them, is also reasonable. Especially in conjunction with the above.
Scum voting Not Chara, and having the full fucking team back that except two randomly on me, is not so reasonable.
The goal for scum in voting during the Beachapalooza event is to
not stick out
. Taking actions which stick out,
especially
if a scum member dies, is counterproductive.
Thus, one reason I continue to have that kraskaesque suspicion.
If TWIE/S_S/SS is the scumteam, all the remaining scum were in the not voters, but the more I think about it, the more I think it likely there's a second scum in the top voters...but not on MY wagon, and not on Not Chara's wagon.
If scum had a perfect distribution (and ignoring DGB), we'd have one scum on me (Skybird), one scum on you, one scum in the none, and one scum in those claiming to have voted someone.

In post 8973, mastin2 wrote:
In post 599, SirCakez wrote:Scum pool = Mcmenno, kraskaesque, obi
By the way, Titus: rule of three, you're fond of it, right? Which of these three do you think is most likely to be scum?

In post 9639, mastin2 wrote:
In post 9348, Almost50 wrote:Scum are in TWIE/Step_Shadow/kraskaesque. kraska's 9297 is a change of tone in preparation to finally let a mislynch occur on farside. (whose play -AGAIN- is EXTREMELY anti-town and has indeed managed to push me over the limites).
Pretty much yeah.

In post 9653, mastin2 wrote:I still maintain farside as town. I also maintain the gems as town. Thus, my theoretical lynch pool does consist of Shadow_Step/Shiro/kraskaesque/TFL/Creature/TWIE. I maintain a townread on TFL.
So that leaves S_S/Shiro/kraska/Creature/TWIE.

In post 9863, mastin2 wrote:kraska's play this game has been basically pure scumposting the entire time. The only thing keeping kraska from being pure scum is a combination of unfamiliarity with kraska's playstyle and mechanics reducing the probability of kraska being scum. So, about 75%.

In post 9973, mastin2 wrote:
In post 9868, Reasonably Rational wrote:then a scum event was triggered in which only people who were allied could vote.
You might note that my top two scumreads solve this problem nicely: say farside is town. What would the scum event triggering then mean to you?
To me, it points to kraska and Shiro more than any others.
It's sheer luck that someone could expend their role utility to both move stress and blow up the scum event.
You might note I don't exactly believe in luck.

In post 10101, mastin2 wrote:
In post 10072, grapes wrote:Yea, the kraska hydra has made some pretty walls here and there. That doesn't make them town.
All valid.

In post 10103, mastin2 wrote:Also, basically, at this stage...who can the scum actually
be
? Serious question, when you think about things.
The possible scum groups are:
Almost50/farside22/Reasonably Rational/kraskaeaque (0-1 scum in here, no more)
...And:
Shadow_Step/Shiro/TheFuzzylogic99/Creature/TheWayItEnds (2-3 scum in here)

I also am basically at the point where if Almost50 is scum I've conceded defeat and as far as I know every other player is at that point as well since he is a universal townread on the same tier as grapes. We also have some decent interactions. Certain teams are less likely than others.

What does Creature flipping town/scum mean to you?
Creature flipping town means there's still 2-3 scum in the second group and nothing more to me. Creature flipping scum means there's 1-2 scum in the second group still and there's maybe a chance useful info can be gleaned from the extra scum body interactions-wise but nothing concrete as far as I can tell.
What does TWIE flipping scum mean?
TWIE flipping scum means there's still 1-2 scum in the second group and we can look at all this pressure on Creature to determine if Creature is a scumbuddy or if scum were trying to save TWIE by going for Creature instead.

In post 10107, mastin2 wrote:TWIE as scum has scumbuddies as kraskaesque > Shiro > Fuzzy/Shadow/Creature.
kraskaesque as scum has scumbuddies as Shiro > TWIE > Fuzzy/Creature > Shadow.
Creature as scum has scumbuddies as kraskaesque > Shiro > Fuzzy/Shadow > RR > farside.

In post 10118, mastin2 wrote:
In post 3223, Varsoon wrote:
SirCakez
(LYNCH):

Not Chara, mastin2, Obi-Wan Kenobi/Titus, McMenno, grapes
,
Shiro
,
Xkfyu, SnarkySnowman, Yume
,
kraskaeaque
,
Klingoncelt
,
Reasonably Rational

farside22
(3):

killthestory/MagnaofIllusion, Firebringer
,
Almost50

Shiro
(2):

farside22
,
Skybird

McMenno
(2):

CooLDoG/Loopdan/Mathblade
,
Thefuzzylogic99

Obi-Wan Kenobi/Titus
(1):

SirCakez

Not Voting (5):

Foxbird/Twin Wings/Shadow_step
,
randomidget
,
TheWayItEnds
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Creature
Do you believe the wagon on SirCakez was all town?
If not, here's an important question:
who is the scum on it?

Essentially, what I'm saying here is: If this is an all-town lynch, it makes no sense. Scum are not applying any resistance to the wagon whatsoever. Skybird wasn't voting at full strength, and the VAST majority of our uncleared players were in the Not Voting category.
If this is not an all-town lynch, there are only three slots which have not been explicitly cleared: Shiro, kraskaesque, and Reasonably Rational.

In post 10119, mastin2 wrote:
Key Votecounts:
SirCakez was all-town except for Shiro/kraska/RR; Shadow/TWIE/Creature all on Not Voting. Fuzzy on McMenno.
farside was voted by TWIE, DGB, and Skybird; DGB was voted by Shiro, Fuzzy, Creature, and farside. kraska was voting Shadow.
farside was later voted by TWIE/DGB/Skybird/kraska; DGB was voted by Shiro/Fuzzy/Creature. Shadow was voting kraska.
SnarkySnowman was voted by guaranteed-all-town save farside/TWIE; DGB was voted by Fuzzy/Creature.
DGB was voted by Fuzzy/Creature/Shiro/farside. TWIE voted Snarky; kraska voted Shadow.

In post 10163, mastin2 wrote:Shiro/Fuzzy/Creature still has scum...but it's one, rather than two.
That leaves kraska/RR/Shadow as the other pool, with exactly one scum in there, no more and no less. Unfortunately, unlike a TWIE townflip, there's not much to be gleaned further from the key votecounts. But since the rest of my analysis remains the same, we're left with the possible combinations:

Shiro/kraska

Shiro/Shadow
Fuzzy/kraska

Fuzzy/RR
Fuzzy/Shadow

Creature-kraska

The italicized teams are the ones which have one of Shiro/kraska on them.

(The analysis in question can be found in 10162.)

In post 10185, mastin2 wrote:If TWIE is scum, these are what's left removing those unlikely:
RR-Fuzzy-TWIE
kraska-Shiro-TWIE
kraska-Fuzzy-TWIE
kraska-Creature-TWIE
Shadow-Shiro-TWIE
Shadow-Fuzzy-TWIE
Shadow-Creature-TWIE
Shiro-Fuzzy-TWIE
Shiro-Creature-TWIE
Fuzzy-Creature-TWIE.

The rest are from posts on this day phase, basically refining the above. Basically to sum up my work thusfar on this day phase, all the math, all my algorithms, point to kraska-Creature as a scumteam.

I'm hoping--even praying--that's the case, because quite bluntly, I don't know what to do if I'm wrong. I've been trying to figure that out. People are actually

agreeing

with me in my scumhunting, and if I'm fully honest, that's actually freaking me out quite a lot. I'm not used to people thinking I'm right. In short, kraska-Creature is my assumed scumteam, but right now, I have no fallback plan. No worst-case scenario where one or both of them flip town. I'd prefer having that, but I don't, and everyone seemingly being more or less in agreement with my reads (save the lynchees, kraska and Creature)? Not exactly helping.

mastin2 · Fri Nov 11, 2016 2:57 pm

In post 7276, Not Chara wrote:Rational: mastin (+1)
Skybird: mastin (+1)
Almost: mastin (+1)
total: 7

Farside: Chara (+2)
total: 5

Kraska: Titus (+1)
Grapes: Titus (+1)
total: 6

Shiro: none
DGB: none
Fuzzy: none (didn't answer?)
TWIE: none

Creature: shadow step
Shadow step: Almost

Would like to point this chart out for reference. We know the scum had five votes at their disposal: Skybird, a scumbuddy, TWIE, DGB, and another scumbuddy.
For RR/A50 to be scum, the scumteam would have had to have poured four of their members into me, giving me two points, and claimed half of them. DGB/TWIE/third scumbuddy would be left in the remainder. DGB and TWIE both claimed none. If RR/A50 were scum with Fuzzy or Shiro, then that would mean all the scum outside the topvoters decided to place themselves in the "none" category, a move which makes no sense.
If RR/A50 were scum with Creature/Shadow, then they distributed things a little more evenly.

For farside to be scum, the scumteam would have had to have poured two of their members into me (Skybird + one), and then their entire remaining strength (farside + two) into Not Chara. This is a move which seems about as doubtful as them piling four of their five votes into me: it is putting the entire scumteam's strength into one spot.
If farside is scum with Fuzzy or Shiro, then that means the scum outside the topvoters decided to place themselves all in the none category.
If farside is scum with Creature/Shadow, then things make more sense.

For there to be no topvoter scum left alive, the scum would have to have placed two votes into me (Skybird/scumbuddy), and then let their other three votes be wasted elsewhere, potentially at the risk of confirming town. That doesn't make much sense to me. Furthermore, this would make two of Fuzzy/Shiro|Creature/Shadow scum. If Fuzzy/Shiro were the scumteam, literally all the scum claimed to have not voted. I think you can see the improbability of that. Fuzzy/Creature, Fuzzy/Shadow, Shiro/Shadow, and Creature/Shadow become the possibilities then.

For kraska to be scum, the scumteam would have poured two of their members into one conftown (Skybird + one), and then two members into a second conftown (kraska + one), leaving one vote free to be used...or more likely, not cast at all. (Using a vote would risk the .5 showing if it's a solo-vote.) This is appealing to me, because it keeps the scumteam reasonably even in distribution across the board. They'd have no way of anticipating farside + Not Chara (which is one reason Not Chara may have died), but they'd be in the top spots they

could

influence.
If kraska is scum with Fuzzy or Shiro, then the scum outside the topvoters again placed themselves all in the none category, with perhaps one of them telling the truth. The "all" part is again where the doubt comes in; it's a strategic nightmare for them to place themselves all inside the same category which the town is specifically working on analyzing and running POE on.

If kraska is scum with Creature (no Shadow chance, because yeah), then the scumteam had a near-perfect distribution (without having anticipated Not Chara, which they could not have done): Skybird on me. kraska on Titus. TWIE in the none. Creature in the worthless-vote. DGB would be a duplicate no-vote, buuuuuuuut, she's also a traitor, so her no vote would be more likely to be seen by town analysts as being unconnected to the scumteam. This is very appealing to my senses of scum mindset, of scum thinking.

The only fault in this analysis though is that it's assuming optimum scum play was in...well, play, and that is something I hold no guarantee of.

mastin2 · Mon Nov 14, 2016 1:37 pm

10648 is a good post.

mastin2 · Mon Nov 14, 2016 1:41 pm

Also, something to make sure of.
There's a slight chance the luchador thing vanillaized me (though V didn't indicate as much and recognized my submitted action), so I have to ask this:

Almost50:

Are you capable of giving me a critique? A simple yes/no is sufficient.

mastin2 · Tue Nov 15, 2016 10:15 pm

In post 10683, MagnaofIllusion wrote:
@mastin
– Since I know RR will withhold information about his role regardless of alignment why don’t you explain why RR should show up as a “guilty” to Not Chara’s investigation.

Yume didn't tell you?

I got the information from her. Apparently they have a hammer-based killing power.
That's about all I was told. That hammering will kill.

mastin2 · Thu Nov 17, 2016 1:12 pm

In post 10731, Shiro wrote:I bet my flavour investigating skill that come enjoy game Mastin is leftovers faction.

Good luck with that.

mastin2 · Thu Nov 17, 2016 1:14 pm

In post 10736, MagnaofIllusion wrote:Alliances for tonight: MoI and Grapes
RR and Randommidget
Farside and Fuzzy
Unpaired as far as Almost / Shiro / Creature / Mastin (unless I missed something)
I suggest that Almost and Shiro pair up and Mastin and Creature pair up.

You missed Shadow_step, and fuck no I'm not pairing up with Creature. I'm either not pairing up at all or I pair up with Shadow_step.
If Almost-Shiro is a go, then I'll submit Shadow_step and Shadow gets the choice of Creature or me to ally with.

mastin2 · Tue Nov 22, 2016 10:11 am

In post 10864, MagnaofIllusion wrote:Someone needs to remind me if there is some game reason that Almost is clear.

Closest thing to it is the same reason for Shadow_step (rather, Foxbird with Skybird D1): he allied with scum, SirCakez in this case. AND, while having an alliance with SirCakez, still invited him to the joyride. A double waste of scum power there.

But you're correct.
It's mostly play-based.

Also, who do you want to lynch?
I seem to recall there was a distinct order upon a kraska townflip.

mastin2 · Wed Nov 23, 2016 11:00 am

In post 10890, MagnaofIllusion wrote:Also I've briefly mentioned this to Grapes in our PT but I'd like to form a pool of "Must Die ASAP" players that most everyone agrees with.

Creature and Shiro seem to be high.
Fuzzy's also on there, but not as much of an immediate priority.

I wouldn't put anyone else on that list, to be honest. The gems are town. Farside is most likely town. I don't believe either RR or Almost50 are town, nor do I believe grapes is scum. The closest to a fourth name would be Shadow_step, who isn't a priority for me at all.

Also, I have no reason for the failed kill.

mastin2 · Fri Nov 25, 2016 12:02 pm

So I think the plan is lynch Creature, right?
So if so...what are the alliances we're setting up?

mastin2 · Mon Nov 28, 2016 8:09 pm

So...I still don't see alliances being set up.
And I'm not voting until we have those worked out for sure.

mastin2 · Tue Nov 29, 2016 9:08 am

I am reasonably certain a three-person alliance with me still does not grant alliance chat: my role PM specifies that the alliance I form does not grant an alliance PT. A three-person alliance is still an alliance with me, so it shouldn't give an alliance PT.

mastin2 · Wed Nov 30, 2016 12:38 pm

In post 11121, MagnaofIllusion wrote:Almost / Fuzzy / RR
Grapes / Shadow / Shiro
Leaving mastin, myself, random and farside out. I’d lean to a farside / myself / Random Alliance leaving mastin without an ally.

mastin and grapes
– these work for you?

Fine by me.
VOTE: Creature.

mastin2 · Thu Dec 08, 2016 9:10 pm

I believe the plan was
VOTE: Shadow_step?

mastin2 · Fri Dec 09, 2016 10:59 am

In post 11256, farside22 wrote:Mastin you have been a bit quiet, any thoughts other then lynch shadow, who you are scum reading?

I stopped having the capacity to townread/scumread players two phases ago. I asked Varsoon to deliver a message to the dead topic where I explained this in more detail, but basically: I knew that kraska/Creature wasn't the scumteam. I knew that--at MOST--one of them would be scum. And that it was fully possible (as it turned out) neither were.

But.

I literally had no better ideas.

I know that I'm confirmed town. I know that it's my job to lead the town, as confirmed town. But my mind's an utter mess. The way I process information is...I am both right, and wrong, 100% of the time. Because I both think every player is scum, and every player is town. The way I function. The way I remain even remotely close to competent. Is that I push probabilities in my mind. For instance, sure. It's

possible

that MoI and randomidget are scum of some sort. Sure. It's possible MoI and randomidget have a third party wincon that will endgame the town. I prefer to deal with the probability, however, that they are effectively town. (Especially given the similarities between the crystal gems and the URS make perfect sense to me.)

Sure, it's possible farside is a malevolent third party. Sure, it's possible farside is scum. The probability to me tells me she's more likely than not town enough to not be a lynch.

Beyond that, though. We've already reached the point where I've lost my ability to produce rational, reasonable, functional analysis. The probabilities I have list

everyone

as more likely to be town than scum. So at least one of my probabilities is therefore...wrong. And I can't discern which it is.

Do you know how bad that doubt is?

It's bad enough where it would not at all surprise me to learn that Shadow is town, trolling.
This, in spite of Shadow having literally scumclaimed.

There's the hope that Shadow is scum, and Shiro was the partner. If Shadow flips scum and the game doesn't end, then Shiro is confirmed as town, though, by my understanding. (There can only be two scum left. If Shadow is one of them, then there would be one left after he was lynched. Because Shiro counts as dead when bubbled, if Shiro were the other, we'd win. So with Shiro bubbled and the game not ending, we have confirmation that Shiro is town--I trust MoI can confirm this with the mod, and either already has done so or will launch a flurry of questions to try and explicitly 100% beyond all shadow of a doubt confirm it after he comes back.)

So where does that leave me?
That leaves me with Fuzzy, Almost50, RR, and grapes.

Aside from Fuzzy, these players have been my strongest townreads practically since the game has begun.

And frankly, I'm disregarding role mechanics in terms of why they would be town. I don't care about Fuzzy's vig. I don't care about RR's power. I don't care about Almost50's power. I don't care about grapes's power. (Not that I really know the details of their roles, though. They've partially claimed, but I don't think any of those three have fullclaimed. And for that matter Fuzzy may have but I don't remember where.)

All of them have reasons to be town. Fuzzy's tone hasn't seemed like scum. The way Almost50 used his joyride, combined with his early presence in the game seemed town. RR's been entering the game solving mode which has looked like what I expect RR's game solving mode to be when they are town. grapes was the main force behind the SirCakez lynch, is the best lead we have for being the scum's N1 nightkill, and was obviously town in the earlygame even without the lynch seemed town. Plus, grapes's ranting today sounds incredibly sincere.

All of them have reasons to be scum. Fuzzy's actions are extremely lackluster. Almost50 has somewhat-consistently protected scum throughout the majority of the game. RR's had some egregious posting at points, among them being the campaign against farside which looked incredibly scum-motivated, and also, if kraska and Shiro were both town, they'd be the only possible scum name on SirCakez. And grapes has, since the D1 lynch, been coasting. grapes hasn't given a single major push since then. There was white knighting of Creature, but that only materialized after the lynch on Creature was already inevitable.

I would lynch Fuzzy, and I would lynch RR, but beyond that...I wouldn't have any direction. At all. Whatsoever. There are no obvious signs. There are no obvious tells. If there's a section of the game where the dead thread--sure to have more information than the living, no doubt--is ranting at me to check out because it has the answer, because it has what I need...well sure that may be obvious to the dead thread, but it sure aint obvious to me with me alive.

No doubt when I do die and I come to the dead thread, this late into the game I guarantee you that they are spoiled. It'd be literally impossible for them to remain unspoiled this long. So they know the answer. And when I do join them there, I will look at the game and facepalm at how, in hindsight, it was so obvious that I won't be able to believe how stupid I was to have missed it.

The problem is that I am in fact...that stupid right now. We have 450 pages that can be sifted through. We have all of this information at our disposal. In spite of me being conftown, I'm not actually privy to all of it, thanks to the inability to communicate it to me except publicly where it would be open to all.

I've simply run out of ideas. I'm out of my element. Rather...I was in my element for a time a few days ago, and then that element failed. That element broke apart. That element, which felt right, turned out to not be right. So in this post-prime state, in this gamestate past the point of where I am at my best, because my best was wrong and my best has failed...I cannot take the leadership position. I cannot dictate things. "Okay, here's the plan. This is what we are going to do."

If I had a clear direction, sure. If I had an idea, sure. But while I usually have a plan. While I usually have a strategy, some grand idea. I've exhausted them all this game. I have none left. So all I can do is sit in the background, and comment on other players' plans. I can give my feedback on what they want to do: "I think this is a good idea". "I think it's worth trying". On rare occasions, "I don't approve of this". And if asked for reasoning why, I can probably give some sort of reply laying out the logic.

But I fundamentally can

not

do my job and, as confirmed town, be a leader. Not in this state, not with my doubt, not with me unable to parse the useful information from the useless. I tried. I tried pair interactions. I tried VCA. I tried scumteam interactions. I don't have a solid direction. I don't have a solid answer. I have nothing left in me because every tool in my arsenal has failed.

Unless the last scum is Fuzzy, the last scum player by necessity is required to be a player whose skill level is high enough where they have thoroughly embedded themselves in the workings of the town. Unless the last scum is Fuzzy, the last scum player has managed to penetrate into the heart of the townbloc that has been driving the game forward for...the entire game. Unless the last scum is Fuzzy, then one of the players we've been assuming is town since D2 (Almost50, RR, grapes) is actually scum. And while of those three I hold a much higher chance of lynching RR than the other two, I hold no stance on Almost50 vs. grapes, which--in a worst-case scenario--I think 3p lylo would boil down to.
(We've got nine alive. Shadow flips scum. Game doesn't end, Shiro is confirmed as town. We have a nightkill. Eight alive once Shiro is let back into the game, or seven if Fuzzy vigged. Lynch one of the four. Scum kill. 5/6 alive. Lynch another of the four. 3/4 alive. Lylo, or mylo. And unless Fuzzy shot one of the four, then two of the four will be alive in there. Meaning we'd only have a 50% chance at winning.)

Ideally, yes, the game ends before then.
Ideally, Shadow flips scum, and Shiro was the partner, game ends.
If not, Shadow flips scum, and Fuzzy is the partner.
If not, Shadow flips scum and Fuzzy vigs the partner.

But if the game doesn't end after any of those...then yeah. I don't know what to do.

mastin2 · Fri Dec 09, 2016 11:09 am

I suppose that works as some semblance of a plan:
Lynch Shadow.
If he flips scum and the game doesn't end, release Shiro from the bubble.
During the night while we are waiting for Shadow's flip, Fuzzy vigs RR.
If the game isn't over with Shiro confirmed as town and RR dead...lynch Fuzzy. (This takes us to night with six alive.)
We should have the mislynches necessary to lynch both Almost50 and grapes, probably in that order. (Day dawns, five alive. Lynch Almost50. Scum kill. Three alive, lynch grapes.)

If the basic premises we're running on are true, that being, Shiro is confirmed town if Shadow flips scum; MoI and random are both town; farside is also effectively town, then this works.

But I'm sure that those who are more attuned to everything have a MYRIAD of problems with this plan.
Which is why I'm not advocating for it right now.

mastin2 · Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:35 am

In post 11316, Almost50 wrote:So, I propose we lynch TFL today and the Gems can always bubble Shadow tonight to make sure he doesn't kill either.

The bubble mechanic is not an unlimited vig-which-the-gems-can-choose-to-undo. For obvious reasons, the gems have good reason not to define what said limitations to the bubble mechanic are. But it is not something which can be used completely and entirely freely every night. So any plan which relies on the gems' bubble mechanic on a player not already bubbled (i.e., Shiro) is not one I can endorse.

mastin2 · Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:44 am

In post 11330, Reasonably Rational wrote:Town has this game locked down, and the only way we lose is through some screwy crap like that. Removing Farside is BY FAR the safest way to prevent anything similar from happening in this game.

Yeah the problem with that is that ANY method of removing farside--lynch or kill--removes the town's lockdown.

There are only four players who can be scum besides Shadow_step (or Shiro but that resolves if we lynch Shadow_step today):
You, grapes, Fuzzy, and Almost50.

Between lynches and vigs, we have the time to remove all four if farside remains in the game.

If we remove farside from the game, we do NOT have the time to eliminate all four. It becomes a 50/50.

Your slot of ALL people should know this.
And between this, and the shit Almost50 is pulling, I fully endorse Fuzzy shooting EITHER of you because you are both pushing sub-optimal shit which makes more sense coming from final scum trying to prevent a town lockdown. Obviously you can't both be scum, but at this point I'm basically convinced one of you is. Because if not...shame on you. More shame on you in particular, since I expect much better of Reasonably Rational than pushing paranoia about farside.

mastin2 · Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:51 am

And yes.
farside is not groupscum.
This much, it seems we all basically agree on, yes?

Do speak up if I am wrong on that.

So, farside is proven to be some flavor of third party: either third party which is malevolent to the town, third party which is benevolent to the town (if her claim of being town-with-third-party-wincon is to be believed), or third party which is neutral to the town.

I absolutely REFUSE to push for farside's death off of the assumption she'd be malevolent third party.
If she is, so she fucking was. I'll blame Varsoon for it. It's a shitty design for the game.
Same goes for the crystal gems for that matter. They're EXPLICITLY third party: they could be malevolent to the town, they could be benevolent to the town, they could be neutral to the town. If they're malevolent, I'll blame Varsoon for making a fucking shitty hidden second scumteam. Otherwise, I simply don't give a damn.

And that's why all the third party speculation, all the third party propaganda, all the third party paranoia, all the third party worry, which RR has been pushing for basically the whole game (farside, then the crystal gems, then back to farside again), is reason I find them to be a prime scum candidate because it is trying to focus on eliminating a POSSIBLE threat, instead of focusing on eliminating the

known and

proven

threat.

So I don't give a damn about the third parties.
I don't give a damn if I LOSE to the third parties.

My interest is solely in lynching and eliminating the scum. The mafia.
And farside isn't mafia.
So I'm not going to tolerate talks of removing her from the game right now, when it's actually safer to keep her in.

mastin2 · Tue Dec 13, 2016 12:13 pm

In post 11348, TheFuzzylogic99 wrote:Shadow is scum, and will get the rope. period end of story. Stop trying to save scum.
Alliances please !!!!

^Pretty much!

Rare is the day where TheFuzzylogic is the voice of reason. I mean, it's in the damn name. FUZZY logic. And yet......

mastin2 · Tue Dec 13, 2016 12:33 pm

In post 11419, TheFuzzylogic99 wrote:I am so confused at this point...I was sure A50 was scum but I am not so sure anymore

To simplify: you have two kill choices--RR or Almost50. Both are making egregious plays uncharacteristic of their towngames. The main thing to decide is which you think is more likely to be motivated by being scum.

Now, I know Almost50 can get crazy and insane as town.
I know RR shouldn't get crazy/insane as town.

For that reason, I lean towards RR being the scum of the two.
But both are pretty damn bad.

mastin2 · Tue Dec 13, 2016 12:38 pm

In post 11421, Reasonably Rational wrote:Fuzzy, everyone has their head so incredibly far up their ass that THEY WILL NOT LYNCH HER EVEN THOUGH EVERYONE THINKS SHE'S A FUCKING THIRD PARTY.

Hey, RR.
The crystal gems are a third party.
I'm not lynching them, either, and neither are you advocating for it. (Though you were earlier.)

Third party does not equal scum.
Scum = scum.

So we are lynching...scum.

This attitude of yours is EXACTLY why I think you are scum.

Instead of scumhunting...you are trying to direct attention onto third parties.
Instead of trying to figure out who is scum...you are trying to manipulate the gamestate to guarantee it is NOT scum who dies.
Instead of going for a plan which is guaranteed to clear Shiro or end the game IN A TOWN WIN TODAY (if Shiro is scum), you are vying for a plan which would give scum wiggle room.

Shadow_step is the lynch today. And farside is

not

the vig tonight.

Argue for a vig on grapes! Argue for a vig on Almost50! Argue for why the vig shouldn't be on you!

But every post you make that argues for a vig on farside is just a post which is furthering the argument for vigging YOU.

mastin2 · Tue Dec 13, 2016 12:39 pm

(Though just to be clear, grapes shouldn't be vigged either.

It quite literally is a binary choice between RR and Almost50.)

mastin2 · Fri Dec 16, 2016 3:31 pm

So before V was in the process of locking the thread, I was typing up the following.

Guys.
Guys.

Here's a thought.

I'm confirmed town.

People have been asking me to lead here, as confirmed town.

The last time people asked me to lead, we got a lynch on TheWayItEnds, who flipped scum. (Not to mention, SirCakez on D1.)

So I'm just saying here.

Hey guys.
Maybe.

Juuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuust maybe.

We should, oh, I dunno.

Listen to confirmed town here when she speaks up?

And I'm saying here.

We're lynching Shadow_step.
Period. No other lynch is going through.

I have no problems with farside's suggested alliances. If someone suggests a better alternative before the lynch, sure, let's go with that, but otherwise, farside's 11386 is good enough for me.

And then!
Fuzzy shoots one of RR/Almost50.
This I am lenient on. It doesn't have to be RR. It can be Almost50. RR is my

preference

, but hey, I'm not going to turn this into a complete dictatorship; I'm flexible. But if the game doesn't end...we unbubble Shiro, and lynch the other. (And that's what I'm guessing will happen with an A50 vig.)

If the game STILL doesn't end...we lynch Fuzzy, though I sincerely doubt we come to this point.
I won't dictate the game further than that.
But honestly I don't need to. Even this much is more than needed.

"But mastina!" You object. "What if grapes is scum?"
Well then you can lynch him after Fuzzy, the numbers support that as being possible. As for why he's last of the four, because he's been the most damn town of the four by FAR stretching the whole game pretty much and literally is the only one who hasn't been moronic today assuming town alignments in play. (Fuzzy is a close second in terms of him being smart, though he HAS had at least some derp involved.) Because, uh, yeah. Whichever of Almost50 and RR is town, has been completely idiotic.

"What if farside is scum?"
Shut the fuck up. She isn't.
"But what if-"

No

, I said. Shut the fuck up. She's not scum.

"Okay, but what about the crystal gems?"
They're town, period end of discussion.

This is the plan.
And nobody fucks it up by going off the plan.

Understand?

And with recent developments:

VOTE: Reasonably Rational

mastin2 · Fri Dec 16, 2016 3:37 pm

Seriously.
The amount of "I fucking told you so" is insane here.
We're fortunate that the scum nightkill failed.
Otherwise, I would be seriously pissed that the GUARANTEED WIN we had was blown by that vig off of third. party. fucking. paranoia. Paranoia. Completely and entirely. Instituted by Reasonably Rational.

It's not that hard though.
Unbubble Shiro, who is now confirmed town.
Lynch RR.
If possible, vig Almost50. If not, lynch Almost50 tomorrow.

If both RR and Almost50 are out of the game and town still hasn't won--as unlikely as that may be--lynch Fuzzy.

Depending on vigs or lack thereof, we may not have the time to lynch grapes as well, but we will if we can.

mastin2 · Fri Dec 16, 2016 3:58 pm

Okay.
How much do I need to do to convince you?

Because we've got 450+ pages worth of information.

I could start out by pointing out nightkills--I do believe Magna told us that Not Chara was growing MAJORLY suspicious of RR prior to its death, for a start.
I could also point out that grapes makes sense as the missing source of a nightkill for N1.
I could also point out how grapes makes sense as a scum kill,

period

--he has consistently been pushing scum the entire game. grapes has also been consistently defending town the entire game.

I could point out how RR's having a killing ability is slightly inconsistent with me ALSO showing up as a guilty: people seem so fond of the idea "identical claims mean opposite alignment", and RR has claimed that they'd be a guilty to a gunsmith when I know I am also a guilty to a gunsmith.

I could point out how RR was dodgy as fuck about SirCakez, and then made a superfluous case on him which was utterly unnecessary.
I could point out how, aside from SirCakez, RR has been consistently resisting the scum lynches: the hesitation behind DGB, defense of Skybird, refusal to pursue TheWayItEnds until I basically forced the issue down their throats, even an utter lack of Shadow_step pressure.

I could point out VCA, how the SirCakez wagon on D1 has literally them as the ONLY possible scum name unless you think it was an all-town wagon.
I could point out VCA on future days, on the sketchy voting pattern of RR. (Admittedly this is less condemning given their NAI-habit of not voting often, butstill.)
I could point out how when I ran the math ages ago, I had setup spec which placed RR as a viable scumbuddy to Shadow_step, and one of only a FEW who fit.

I could point out how when I ran the numbers, how when I crunched the numbers, I had a viable RR/S_s scumteam which I concluded was "unlikely, but possible", yet now ALL (literally ALL) the teams which were more likely than that have been proven false.
I could point out how POE suggests them as the last scum.

I could point out why Almost50 is townier than RR.
I could point out why RR's third party focus is something that is exclusive to their scumgame. (In particular, flashbacks to SC's game come to mind.)
I could point out how Fuzzy is more likely town than RR.
I could point out any myriad of things here.

And maybe I should.
This isn't even a complete list.

But what it SHOULD tell you is to stop fucking listening to them and start LYNCHING them.

mastin2 · Fri Dec 16, 2016 4:00 pm

(And because I'm sure RR will bring it up...not ^all of those are actually good points, mind you. Some of them are admittedly a stretch, but I say them to point out how I really don't know where to start in making an appealing argument. There are SO many places I could begin. SO many things I could say. And figuring out which are the most important to say, I'm still doing.)

mastin2 · Fri Dec 16, 2016 4:03 pm

And Magna--a problem with asking for the worst argument to eat rope is that Fuzzy is going to make the worst argument regardless of his alignment and RR is going to make the best argument regardless of theirs.

This is pretty much self-evident, in their usernames alone. Fuzzylogic. Reasonably Rational. Do the math yourself. (As for why Almost50 isn't going to cream them both...umm...senility?

)

mastin2 · Fri Dec 16, 2016 4:38 pm

Additional quickie points:
-Yume could have been killed to break the communication chain between me and the rest of the town. While Yume no doubt bled valuable info to RR, the fact of the matter is, I've been locked out of the loop ever since Yume's death. This might not be a problem...if it weren't for how I am confirmed town, and in a position where I absolutely SHOULD be in communication with people.
-Klingoncelt was basically the only non Not-Chara nightkill we have absolute 100% confirmation of. Why would she be killed? Well a quick look at the second page of her iso shows that she would have considered the extra slot scum power to be a scumclaim and lynched it instantly, a possible motive. I suppose you can argue that one of her scumreads was right: it can't be Shiro or Titus so maybe you could argue she was killed for DGB/Almost50 fingering...
...Yet honestly. There's zero. Zilch. Nadda. Which makes her a compelling nightkill off of her play. She was widely scumread. Her reads were known to not be much of a threat. Her presence was largely negligible.
Yet she did die. And the most compelling reason for this? The most compelling reason for this is for the scumteam to kill someone off of the mechanics in play. Maybe they thought she had some super secret role which was even more powerful than mine. Maybe they knew she was a crystal gem and wanted the crystal gems flipped to confirm their presence in the game. Maybe they wanted to know the power of the crystal gems faction, to size it up by seeing the full flip and knowing what they were up against.

...The last one in particular comes to me as a rather strong possibility, borderline probability. Because that description fits a player nicely: Reasonably Rational was bitching and moaning about how Yume was REFUSING to release Klingoncelt. And when Klingoncelt eventually

was

released, Reasonably Rational CONTINUED bitching and whining about all the redacted info in the flip, dissatisfied with all of what was hidden there. RR's stance on the third parties also notably changed after--before, RR was defending those that they knew about. When the information was kept from them, RR suddenly started going ballistic. Particularly on Yume, but on all of the crystal gems to some extent.

No player in the game had more to gain by killing Klingoncelt than RR: weaken the strength of the gems, surefire successful kill, reveal the presence of the gems, and reveal the POWERS of the gems. RR was privy to some of this information, but not all of it. Just enough where RR would think to make the kill.

Nobody has given this kill much thought. But I really think it should.
Unless the last scum is Fuzzy, it's a safe bet the last scum living either was THE driving force behind scum kills, or at least a strong voice in their scum chat.
grapes is a strong player who would voice an opinion.
Almost50 is a fucking champion on his scumteams.
And RR is...well, RR. There's NOBODY in this game who RR would be subservient to on a scumteam. (Well, except maybe Titus? And even then, that's only a 50/50. Or maybe me. But that's more likely to be an equal partnership.) They would be the dominant. They would be the scum leader.

So unless the last scum is Fuzzy...then the last scum was the one who dictated their actions.

RR's actions have aligned perfectly with how the scum have been thinking the entire game. I can't point out all the myriad of examples, but it's in my mental archive of the game: every time the scum did something, RR was there, and perfectly able to explain exactly why the scum had done that something, in essence. They fit the narrative of the scum mastermind, the one we've missed the whole damn game.

We KNOW the scum had a mastermind.
Yet who?

Who?

Skybird? I doubt it. DGB? Lolno. TWIE? Not the leader type; he's a passive presence. Shadow_step? I really don't think he has it in him to be the leader, and he replaced a lurker slot that had given literally nothing so the scum's plans couldn't have been him.

Fuzzy for that matter doesn't fit the scum mastermind archetype either.

Grapes...could, I suppose, but it's unlikely.

That leaves you with a choice: Almost50 or Reasonably Rational.
And while I do think Almost50 is smart enough to be scum this game...
...The player who best fits as scum, with the combination of theoretical smarts compared to game smarts and also game "dumb" like demanding a farside vig, is Reasonably Rational.

mastin2 · Fri Dec 16, 2016 4:45 pm

11499: proof that I am fully vindicated in my stance to NOT lynch Almost50 today.

It's really just Reasonably Rational.

No matter who is town or who is scum, the game's not going to be perfect. The game's not going to be simple. It's not going to be easy.

But it CAN be the path which makes the most sense.

And the path which makes the most sense is for Reasonably Rational to be scum.

I'm busy tonight with family night.
I'm also going to be swamped with weekend responsibilities.

But it's as clear as day.
Like.

Hey.
You know how I was doubting myself before?

You know how I said I lacked a plan?
You know how I said I was directionless?
That I didn't know what was going on.
That I didn't know what to do?

Well now I fucking do.

And I feel pretty damn confident about it, too.

mastin2 · Fri Dec 16, 2016 5:04 pm

I swear to god the dead thread is screaming at the players all the ways Reasonably Rational is the last scum.
Like.

I can peer into their souls right now.
They're cheering for RR's head. In the noose.

I wish there was a better player to push this through for me.
But most of them happen to already be dead, so I'll have to do.

I really don't know how to translate the case I have in my mind into words.

But it's quite literally.
Like, a cloud was covering my mind.

And then, with a snap of a finger.
With Reasonably Rational as scum.
Suddenly, it all made sense.

I saw a narration from the start of the game which fit perfectly.
And no other player fits as well with this.

Reasonably Rational has not once in the game been pushing an actually pro-town agenda.
Reasonably Rational's actions have consistently lined up to a gamestate where the scum have gained the advantage where they otherwise would not have held one.
RR has a scumteam whose action choices make perfect sense with their profile. Like. I psychologically profile people. It's just something that I do. And they fit.
RR's play is in the position the last scum player would be.
The scum mastermind this game is thinking in a way which fits with RR's play.
The way that RR has complained about actions this game is something convenient for their scumgame: "Hey, not MY fault this player ruined the town strategy which totally would have worked. That's their fault!"
RR also fits as scum who piled onto me for the Beachapalooza.

For this, I can cite the inverse of an MD post, where basically, the idea is: scum don't change their plans after someone is revealed as town. RR and Skybird went after me in the Beachapalooza event, which was the plan set out in advance. Titus sprung new information on them. Yet RR and Skybird still voted me for said event. RR was planning on me winning the event even on D2--they had Yume communicate to me that they'd show as guilty to the investigation. They were ALWAYS going to vote me. And the scum were ALWAYS trying to get me to have the power.

Titus was an unexpected curveball, and their plan did not adjust accordingly.

Literally out of time now but when I can I'll continue.

mastin2 · Fri Dec 16, 2016 5:07 pm

In post 11505, Almost50 wrote:@Mastina: Why would SCUM!RR convince TFL to shoot farside instead of me AND let me have my check on grapes go through in the process.

Farside, easy: RR is INCAPABLE of killing farside. So he needed Fuzzy to do it for them.
Investigation, easy: your investigation failed, right? Now, who do you suppose was the cause of that failure, hmm?

...Yeah, my thoughts exactly. Your investigation didn't work. A scum!RR would know this. Thus giving you your answer right then and there.

mastin2 · Fri Dec 16, 2016 5:09 pm

(^That's why it was so scummy-as-fuck for RR to suggest farside's death.
farside could NOT be lynched, nor removed by the nightkill. It HAD to be via fuzzy's infallible vig. Thus the strong scum motivation in making Fuzzy waste his shot, which...cast suspicion onto FUZZY, keeps grapes from being clear, and keeps Mr. Townbeard--that's you--alive for manipulation.)

mastin2 · Sat Dec 17, 2016 12:04 pm

In post 11510, Almost50 wrote:And would have made more sense if they still shot somebody (like you or TFL) while TFL took care of faside for them.

Thus confirming Fuzzy as town in the eyes of everyone.

This is really, really simple math.

Reasonably Rational ramrodded down everyone's throats the plan which leaves the MOST amount of doubt on the MOST amount of people.

It was Reasonably Rational who kept Fuzzy from shooting on previous nights, like the night farside was slated to die via the scum nightkill.
It was Reasonably Rational who kept Fuzzy from killing during a time where the scum would also be killing.
In this situation, where Fuzzy's kill was guaranteed to succeed, Reasonably Rational could not justify Fuzzy holding fire. So Fuzzy was going to shoot. If the scumteam also shot last night, then the fact that Fuzzy was able to kill AND there was a scum kill would confirm Fuzzy as town.
And who did Fuzzy shoot?
It was Reasonably Rational's idea to shoot farside, the ONLY PLAYER THAT COULD NOT BE REMOVED BY THE SCUM.
It was Reasonably Rational encouraging things like shooting known town.
It was Reasonably Rational who pushed ideas like shooting the one player NONE OF THE CONFIRMED TOWN WANTED DEAD over the players THE CONFIRMED TOWN WANTED DEAD.

It was Reasonably Rational who suggested you waste your investigation on grapes--by YOUR OWN ADMISSION.

How many bad ideas from Reasonably Rational will it take you to realize that they are just. actually. scum?

mastin2 · Sat Dec 17, 2016 12:29 pm

In post 11511, Almost50 wrote:1- farside could only escape the first lynch.

I'm not talking about farside being immune off of role.
I'm talking about farside being immune to the lynch BECAUSE THE FUCKING CONFIRMED TOWN WERE INSISTING SHE NEVER BE LYNCHED.
Between me, Magna, and randomidget (who follows MoI), you have three votes. Farside makes four. Do you know how many it takes to lynch her? Five, in unison--all of you/grapes/Fuzzy/RR/Shadow_step or Shiro working in unison.
If so much as ONE decided not to (and grapes is sane enough to be that person), farside couldn't be lynched yesterday.
And after last night, farside couldn't be lynched

at all

. Because the town wouldn't have the numbers. The confirmed town had a townbloc strong enough where they wouldn't let that go through.

So YES.

Suggesting a vig of farside was the

scummiest as fuck

possible thing Reasonably Rational could do.

Do you know what Reasonably Rational specializes in?

Reasonably Rational specializes in breaking the game via mechanics.

Yet every suggestion Reasonably Rational has pushed through has

WEAKENED

the town, rather than locked it down.
Because Reasonably Rational isn't breaking the game via mechanics--at least, not for the town.
Reasonably Rational is breaking the mechanical lockdown the town had and

leaving room for the scum to win

.

If you have so much as ONE game. ONE GAME. Of experience with Reasonably Rational. You should know this! The difference is night and fucking day. The town!RR that I know would

never

, under ANY circumstances, WHATSOEVER, give up the strong town role of farside. The town!RR that I know would NEVER let the town's trump card--and if you look at farside's strength as a role, you know she was our fucking strongest town role because she was IMMUNE TO THE SCUM'S ACTIONS and CONTROLLED ENOUGH VOTES TO FORCE LYNCHES THROUGH--be lolvigged.

The town!RR I know would be lynching Fuzzy for making the same move as grapes did in the original Steven Universe: grapes lynched someone that RR knew was town. So RR retaliated by lynching grapes. The town!RR I know would be encouraging Fuzzy to make a smart move, and punish him for the lolvig move. Yet THIS RR. The RR from

this

game. ENCOURAGED THE VERY BEHAVIOR THAT BOTH HEADS BLAME FOR BEING THE REASON TOWN LOST THE FIRST FUCKING GAME.

I don't care if you haven't played with RR. You must have seen Cerb, or Drixx, rant about the first Steven Universe game. How grapes "blew it" by "giving up a guaranteed win". How grapes turned the "lockdown into a fucking 50/50 we lost". How they blame grapes's action for removing a solid plan which would have guaranteed a town win.

Yet the Reasonably Rational of THIS GAME. By encouraging the removal of

someone that was completely immune to the scum

and who could

sway lynches

, was doing EXACTLY THAT FUCKING THING. I swear to god. I fucking SWEAR. To. The everloving heavens. In the name of Rose Quartz I promise you that is something that a town!RR would never on their life do.

Fuzzy would not be doubted with my testimony that both myself & RR convinced him to shoot farside, i.e. he didn't do it by his own choice alone.

And yet, here we are. If a scum kill had gone through when Fuzzy had shot, Fuzzy would be beyond all shadow of a doubt, confirmed town. But because that didn't happen, Fuzzy isn't confirmed town. Players like MagnaofIllusion--confirmed town!--are doubting him. Players like me are supposed to be doubting him. And goddammit yes I am in fact doubting him even though I think this REEKS of RR's scumgame manipulation.

The scum deliberately no-killed last night. And it was a strategy that ONLY those privy to Fuzzy's thoughts would be likely to come up with. I.e., you or RR. And this play runs COUNTERINTUITIVE TO THE VERY CONCEPT OF A TOWN!RR.

If RR is the last scum they would have shot someone too. They had to. The game is literally closing to an end and the faster the Town players die the greater their chance is to win.

If RR is the last scum, FUZZY DID THE SCUM'S NIGHTKILL FOR THEM.
Because farside was confirmed to not be groupscum.
Farside was immune to the scum's nightkill.
Farside held power such that she was not getting lynched ever.
That's someone SCUM CAN LITERALLY NOT AFFORD TO HAVE IN ENDGAME.
That's someone who must.

MUST

! Be removed in order for scum to win the game. It's literally impossible for the scumteam, down to one member, win, as long as farside was alive.
So RR having Fuzzy shoot farside?

SERVED AS THE SCUM'S NIGHTKILL.
Because it REMOVED CONFIRMED TOWN.
It removed from the game a member of the townbloc.
It broke the stronghold we had held on the game.
And left them enough wiggle room where they could squeeze a win through.

This should confirm to you that grapes is town!
Because the ONLY person who would've made a nightkill last night as scum is grapes, assuming that Fuzzy was shooting IN THE SUSPECT POOL rather than shooting AT KNOWN TOWN.

Both you, and RR, had coerced Fuzzy into shooting farside.
So both you, and RR, knew there was no need to nightkill, say, me.

Fuzzy shoots farside as happens?
Well then. We've got FOUR SUSPECTS. Out of eight players alive, once Shiro comes back--HALF THE FUCKING GAME.
Lynch one. Scum nightkill. Six alive, three suspects. Lynch one. Scum nightkill.
Four alive, two suspects.
Literally a 50/50.

Fuzzy shoots a suspect, AS WE HAD TOLD HIM TO.
Well then. Three suspects, out of eight alive.
Lynch one, scum nightkill. Six alive, two suspects. Lynch one, scum nightkill.
Four alive, one suspect.
Literally a FUCKING GUARANTEED TOWN WIN.

Alternatively:
Fuzzy shoots a suspect, and scum nightkill.
Well then. Fuzzy's confirmed thanks to the shot, so it taken out of the suspect pool. After his shot, we've got two suspects.
Two suspects, out of seven alive.
Lynch one, scum nightkill.
Five alive, one suspect.
We win EVEN SOONER THAN BEFORE.

This is simple math.
This is the gamebreaking

Reasonably Rational

specializes

in

.
RR CREATED A GAP which allows for scum to win, where none existed before.
They also knew that if they killed and Fuzzy killed, that Fuzzy would be confirmed town, taken out of the suspect pool, and narrow down the lynch candidates even further.

Seriously.
This is simple.

There is one scum left.

Fuck

your two scum left theory.
It doesn't fit the flavor. It doesn't fit the fucking game mechanics. It doesn't fit balance. It doesn't fit in the game at all. It's nonexistent.
There is one scum left.

And that scum is Reasonably Rational.

mastin2 · Sat Dec 17, 2016 12:44 pm

tl;dr version:

Reasonably Rational SPECIALIZES in gamebreaking. RR's WHOLE FUCKING SHTICK is that they will mechanically break the game to ensure a town win. They will rant about anyone who for any reason breaks this guaranteed win.

...Except, this game:

The ones who broke the guaranteed win were

THEM

.
Yesterday, we had nine alive (plus Shiro), with one confirmed scum (Shadow_step) and four suspects--RR/Almost50/Fuzzy/grapes.

Lynching the confirmed scum took us to eight.
Fuzzy vigging one of the three other suspects would take us to seven. A scum nightkill down to six. Shiro would return to the game as confirmed town, bringing us to seven, or to eight if scum no-killed.
We have either seven or eight alive, and we have one suspect killed via Fuzzy's vig. If we have seven alive, Fuzzy is confirmed town thanks to scum kill when Fuzzy killed. If not, Fuzzy remains a suspect: eight alive, three suspects OR seven alive, two suspects.
In either case, we lynch a suspect, and then scum nightkill: six alive, two suspects OR five alive, one suspect. We lynch a/the suspect. Game over in the latter.
In the former, scum kill again and with four players alive, we lynch the last fucking suspect and win.

This is elementary math. This was the plan that both I, and MagnaofIllusion, had endorsed. It is the plan that Reasonably Rational, as town, should have recognized as being solid. This is the plan that a town!RR should have consented to, because the result of this plan would be that town could NOT in ANY circumstance lose.

Instead, Reasonably Rational ramrodded down your throats this plan:
Nine alive (plus Shiro), with one confirmed scum (Shadow_step) and four suspects--RR/Almost50/Fuzzy/grapes. Lynching confirmed scum (which I forget--did RR object to that, or was that just you, A50?) takes us to eight.
Fuzzy instead vigs confirmed town, leaving all four suspects alive out of either six (scum kill) or seven (scum no-kill). Shiro returns to the game as confirmed town, bringing the total up to either seven (scum kill) or as it happens, eight.
We have either three suspects (scum kill), or four scum suspects, out of seven, or out of eight.
In the former, we still win, sure: we've got the mislynches needed to lynch all of RR/Almost50/grapes and one of them is scum because Fuzzy would be confirmed as town if the scum shot went through.
In the latter, which we are in...we now have EIGHT ALIVE...and FOUR OF THEM are suspects.

Fuzzy isn't clear because there was no scum kill.
Almost50, RR, and grapes are all alive.
And when the math plays out...you get a 50/50 4p mylo.

This is what Reasonably Rational caused.

I really can't get any more clear than this.

mastin2 · Sat Dec 17, 2016 12:55 pm

Like.

I'm using Reasonably Rational's OWN FUCKING LOGIC against them.
I'm using the thing REASONABLY RATIONAL IS KNOWN FOR DOING better than Reasonably Rational themselves.
Using logical inconsistencies and using known mechanics.

To tell you.

It really is that simple.

Reasonably Rational is scum because they are playing

contrary to their mechanical-based playstyle

. They are playing in the ONLY way which allows scum to win. As town they would have recognized that farside's value was such that as long as she lived scum could not win the game...and prevented her death. As scum they also recognized that farside's value meant as long as she lived they could not win...so they advocated for her death.

The funny thing is, I didn't even come here to log in and make a mechanics-based case for why RR is scum. I didn't come here to turn their own logic on its head and use it as evidence for why they are undeniably the last scum. What I came to do here (and which I no longer have the time for, thanks to an impending staff meeting) was to write a quick "case" of sorts on each player.

And ask seriously:
What has grapes done that's town? Plenty--strongest advocate of SirCakez's death. Strong advocate of DGB's death. I'm pretty sure he was one of the five or so Skybird voters. (Would need to track it down.) I also recall him being an earlyish TWIE voter (would need to check). He CERTAINLY was an early pusher of Shadow_step. If he is scum, he has basically bussed his entire fucking scumteam. This, ASIDE FROM the fact that we have strong evidence suggesting he was the N1 scum kill. Aside from TheWayItEnds's ability (which was truthful, yet in the hands of scum) which I believe was used truthfully, there's also how Not Chara's power AFTER THE FACT corroborated this: Not Chara made grapes immune to the nightkill, and grapes

was not aware of this

. The scum, however, were, as Not Chara was one of their first nightkills.

What has grapes done that's scum? Give me a case.

What has Almost50 done that's town?
This is one I wanted time to prepare, but for now I can just say there's enough.

What has Almost50 done that's scum?
I'll admit that there are things, but I wanted time to explain why I don't feel them to be valid.

What has Fuzzy done that's town?
This is another one I wanted to prepare, but there's plenty, from the previous slot holder to knowing Fuzzy's playstyle.

What has Fuzzy done that's scum?
Literally the only thing is that his power isn't proven.

What has Reasonably Rational done that's town?
Show me this. Serious question.

What has Reasonably Rational done that's scum?
Have you been listening at all to what I've been saying? I really can't show it much clearer than I am now. Lynch RR, and the game ends in a town win. It's not that hard to comprehend.

mastin2 · Sat Dec 17, 2016 1:17 pm

In post 11512, Reasonably Rational wrote:It turns out our concerns were just paranoia, but they were absolutely justified.

The problem is, you've used this excuse the whole fucking game.

"Our concerns turned out to be nothing, but trust us they were justified."

Literally every time you've been proven wrong, you've clung to that defense.

And after a certain number of times, all I can really say is bullshit. The player who has most shown inconsistencies this game right now is

you

. You're not acting like the Reasonably Rational as town that I know VERY well by this point. There's holes in your logic which for such a thorough, detailed player should simply not exist.

I know you have a hydra PT. And I know you have HUNDREDS of messages over some messaging program in which you bounce things off back and forth. You are the poster child for a meticulous, thorough hydra.

And yet you are missing simple details that nobody should be missing, YET ALONE, you of ALL people.

Your stance on third parties has been inconsistent the whole game, too. Especially on a meta level, because I know at least one head has a benevolent view of third parties, and the other head I believe holds that third parties should be EXPLOITED for as long as humanly possible--a view calling for the vig of farside was in flagrant violation of, among other such times.

Your game is DEFINED by rationality. By being reasonable. By logic. By facts.
NOT by paranoia.

Your game is not reliant on "what if".
Your game is reliant on certainties.

And you threw away a CERTAIN VICTORY.
On a "what if".
Hiding behind paranoia.

Reasonably Rational is NEVER paranoid as town. EVER. When RR has reason to doubt something, then they will doubt it...and reconsider it. Reevaluate it. Put pages upon pages of thought and discussion in their private chat into figuring that thing out. And then they will come to a new conclusion, one which is what they have determined to be the most likely case. You keep each other in check. When one head gets paranoid, especially thanks to emotions, the other reels them in and keeps them sane.

Yet here, you have displayed a focus on eliminating everything EXCEPT scum. Your plans have thrown out logic. They have been full of holes. They have left gaps where scum would be able to slide in. All because of a focus on possibilities, rather than probabilities. And while, sure. It is true. RR likes to create a gamestate where there are as few variables as possible. It's true RR likes to eliminate as many scenarios as possible. It's true you do those things alignment regardless.

The simple fact is your actions in this game have CREATED extra variables. They have CREATED scenarios. They have done the OPPOSITE OF WHAT THEY SHOULD BE DOING. What do you have to say for that?

"Scum mastermind"? Nobody left except you who'd play like that.
"Town was being moronic"? That doesn't explain how scum have been countering literally every move you put forward with an appropriate response which hurt the town.

The simple fact is, you are playing to an agenda which has done NOTHING but further the scum wincon.

And I refuse to believe this is the Reasonably Rational I know as town.

What I need for you to do now, Mastin, is put on your mod hat. Look at the game. Look at what we know, the flips we've seen. Take in the totality of the game state, and the course of action parts of the setup and the flavor of the game essentially GUARANTEED town would take. Do that, and answer the question: Why would we EXPECT Farside to be a threat?

Yeah I've done this already.

Farside is a threat because SHE COULD NOT BE KILLED BY SCUM.
With one scum alive.
Do the fucking math.
She was also confirmed as town.
Confirmed. town. which. scum. couldn't. kill.
And nigh-impossible to mislynch especially with her abilities. (Not to mention town support.)

And you have the

audacity

to ask how she'd be a threat?

It literally writes itself!

Counter-question: why DIDN'T you recognize she was a threat to the scum?
Why didn't you recognize her value, her asset, to the town?
Why didn't you continue to exploit her when regardless of whether she was third party or town she still had value to add to the town?

The simple fact is: scum needed farside gone.
And the player who advocated farside be removed--in MORE ways than one--was you. Trying to get her to get the third party wincon. (Which, by the way, is an inconsistency with "trying to prevent a third party win that endgames town", because GIVING HER THAT WIN risked DOING EXACTLY THAT.) Trying to get Fuzzy shooting her.

There are literally hundreds of reasons why you are scum here.
It's not even funny. Just frustrating that people aren't already lynching you and that I'm going to have to fight tooth and nail to push through something which shouldn't need explanation.

Anyone who knows how you play knows that your actions are coming from scum.
And the amount of effort I have to show that to those who don't is ridiculous.

So my GOD

Magna, grapes

, please just trust me here and help me. I'm right. RR is caught by their own style. By their own tendencies. By their own habits. Look at what Reasonably Rational has pushed. Pushed now. Pushed in the past. Pushed the whole fucking game. It's consistently served a scum agenda since day one. There's been some facade of a town game, a mimicry of it, a cheap imitation of it, yet no gamesolving. No attempt to lock the game down. Nothing to flush the scum out. Just lynching one town after another and trying to remove more through cheap tricks which leave as few as possible confirmed.

It's not Almost50. It's not Fuzzy. It's just...Reasonably Rational.

mastin2 · Sat Dec 17, 2016 1:23 pm

In post 11514, Randomnamechange wrote:RR seemed REALLY town in our PT.

I swear to the everloving gods if I have to deal with this shit one more time...

No.

Just, no.

They seem town in the PT? Good for them. Why haven't they shown it in here? It's because they're manipulating you. If your defense of someone boils down to PT talk, you should throw it out ESPECIALLY if it's a player who fucking specializes in manipulating PTs. Drixx from SMITE mafia called. He wants to remind you how he's a FUCKING PROFESSIONAL at it. Especially when there's no longer anybody competent enough to point out contradictions between the PT and the thread left.

I promise you.

PROMISE. YOU.

That Reasonably Rational is the last scumfuck here.

His main worry seemed to be from Far leaving the game once their win con was achieved and screwing with numbers (this was prior to some BS from far which changed the situation).

Okay. So they were worried farside leaving the game would be a bad thing.
So why the FUCK were they trying to make her do exactly that?
Why the fuck were they trying to force her out of the game by achieving her 3p win, when her leaving the game with a 3p win was their main worry?

Again.

This is the logical inconsistency you fucking catch Reasonably Rational on.

Swear to god.
This is Reasonably Rational as scum.

mastin2 · Mon Dec 19, 2016 4:24 pm

In post 11529, Almost50 wrote:First things first: Varsoon PM'd me with the result of "No Action Submitted".
Now I do have a feeling I was redirected, because this result in particular did not explicitly mention my target's name. I had previously been told McMenno/Creature results with their names intact within he investigation result PM.
However, I have no proof of such redirection other than that.

Or, here's a thought.
Just a thought.

Your result is exactly what happened because it's...exactly what happened.

RR is NOT the only one responsible for the NK on farside.

You being guilty of the same crime does not lessen the fact that it was in fact a crime--why do you think so much desire to lynch you exists in the first place?

Exactly. It's because yes you ARE as guilty as they are.

The difference is...you pull this shit as town and have a known record of doing so.

I have gone to GREAT lengths to describe exactly why RR doing so runs contrary to their record as town and is consistent with their record as scum.
Namely, this is Reasonably Rational gamesolving as town.
Skip to the last page of the iso if you'd like.
This is Reasonably Rational "gamesolving" as scum. There's only the one page so not much of a read.

Now tell me, which of the two resembles what RR is doing this game?

Now why would Scum!RR prevent the NK on farside earlier is also a question I have to propose. The faster they got rid of Townies the closer they got to their win, so why prevent such a kill on her earlier?

You'll have to remind me of this occurrence as this runs contrary to my memory banks of what RR's done the entire game.

The rest of your logic seems resident on an idea I'm not comprehending, that of farside dieing by a means other than what did happen.

Either that or they would not have had TFL allying with me to begin with, and would have not shot someone themselves either, thus keeping myself, TFL, farside AND rapes as possible mislynches.

Did you miss the part where

farside was confirmed town

and

completely immune to the scum nightkill

? Because. Um. Yeah. Farside was confirmed town. And immune to the scum nightkill. So RR as scum lets farside live...why?

Explain that to me. Why would a scum RR let farside live?
Why would a town RR advocate for farside's death?

What -on Earth- was TWIE thinking when/if he confirmed his own scum buddy took a shot at grapes (thus proving Sky to be a killer)?? Explain THAT please.

You need a serious fucking grip on the game if you don't remember basic chronology. By the time TWIE used his ability,

Skybird was already dead

. As a result, either Skybird self-submitted her action POSTMORTEM...
...Or TWIE told the truth about his use. And, as I say below: timing is important. He was not known scum when he used his power.

I don't see why SCUM would correct a SCUM action to prove their target to be TOWN.

This is really, really fucking obvious.
We know that Skybird either submitted the action postmortem and lied...
...Or that TWIE told the truth. (Because of the wording on TWIE's ability, he could not have fabricated a result.)
Aside from that! Assume Skybird really DID submit a postmortem result which was fabricated.
TWIE was not known to be confscum when he used this ability. It so happened I had a guilty result on him, but the thread was locked at the time he used the ability--rather blatantly, he used it in an attempt to gain town credit.

What would that ability's gain be for the scum? Virtually none.
What would that ability's gain be for the town? Huge.
So TWIE using it, and using it truthfully, was an attempt to gain towncred.

You think this strange?

Name a scum player this game who didn't attempt to use a claim ability for towncred.
SirCakez claimed an ability and tried to use it for towncred.
Skybird never claimed abilities and thus never used it for towncred.
TWIE claimed an ability and tried to use it for towncred.
Shadow_step was DEFINED by claiming his ability and trying to use it for towncred. That was the whole fucking point of him using his ability.
DGB's the closest you'll get to that, and even there, she was a traitor, who used her power to prove she had it and almost never again, a move which...is usually done...for towncred.

Yeah.
TWIE didn't lie.

Ergo, grapes was the scum's nightkill.
Ergo, grapes is not fucking scum.
And if you're not scum.
And if Fuzzy isn't scum.

Here's a joke for you:
Knock, knock.
"Who's there?"
Scummer.
"Scummer who?"
...Exactly!

mastin2 · Mon Dec 19, 2016 5:10 pm

In post 11532, Reasonably Rational wrote:Mastin. You realize that if we were scum we had access to the same empowered shot that Fuzzy had access to, right?

One, I sincerely doubt that--factional abilities are rarely if ever empowered by other abilities, especially in Varsoon games. He'll power the fuck out of, say, a strongman because a strongman is a personal power even if said personal power is used in application on a factional power (that being, the scum's nightkill), but he won't actually power the factional ability up.

Two. Even IF this is wrong. Even IF he did--so? My point doesn't change. Having Fuzzy do your dirty work for you keeps your hands clean...ESPECIALLY with a townbeard in the form of Almost50 backing you up. If Fuzzy does the nightkill, and no factional kill is shown, then Fuzzy remains unclear. If Fuzzy does the nightkill, and a factional kill happened, Fuzzy would be cleared. Meaning, the points I am making don't fucking change at all:
You still created a situation where Fuzzy would not be clear.
You still created a gamestate where farside would be removed from the game allowing the possibility of a scum win.
You still attempted to not get your hands dirty.
You still attempted to avert your own demise.

That you are attempting to say that my arguments which were entirely unrelated to this point fall apart because of it is LAUGHABLE. My points hold even if I'm wrong. Even if you had the power as scum to kill farside thanks to Almost50, that still fucking means you were creating a gamestate where farside would be eliminated.

Also, I just thought of a far simpler reason Fuzzy needed to do the kill.
farside was immune to the scum's nightkill.
Assume Almost50 DID grant factional kills the power to puncture through.
Well guess what farside suddenly dieing does for you, RR.

It confirms you have the fucking factional kill, ergo, making you confscum.

You're not that stupid as scum.
So stop trying to argue you would be.

Fuzzy was a NECESSARY patsy to remove farside because the scum absolutely could not remove her by any other means.
And by LORD you did try those other means. Lynch. Multiple times. Triggering her third party wincon. At least two or three times. All failed. So you resorted to manipulating an easily-manipulated player into making the ONE SHOT which would allow for a gamestate scum can win in.

what in this game setup that you have seen so far makes it balanced? How do the scum handle the very large amount of slots that will never be lynched going by the assumptions we have used this game?

I handle it by assuming scum are kill-heavy as they are proven to be.
I handle it by assuming scum have powers which are meant to false-confirm themselves as town so they are integrated into the townbloc, as has been proven to see.
I handle it by assuming the third parties are not treated purely as town.
I handle it by assuming even if the third parties ARE being played purely as town, that players both town and scum will ASSUME they are not town and handle it appropriately--mislynching a crystal gem for instance. Which we have been seeing the whole fucking game, especially on farside but certainly not limited to exclusively her.
I handle it by assuming that the scum have reasonable ways of deterring the conftown from claiming. As has been shown in the game, and which V explicitly warned about in the beginning.
I handle it by assuming that the scum's fake roles are going to just be town roles that are scum aligned. As has been shown in the game.

I handle it exactly as I have been: by looking at what I have at hand and making the obvious fucking conclusions from it.

The obvious fucking conclusions from it show the scum having exactly what they have, and the town having exactly what they have, and third parties having exactly what they have, because not only have they had it, but it makes SENSE for them to have had it:
The crystal gems focus largely on protection, a necessity to keep themselves alive. The scumteam focuses largely on killing. A necessity to puncture through the protection. The town does not have much in the way of investigatives--most of their power stems entirely from abilities which deal with other factors, like confirmation. Yet the scum were given those same exact abilities, as to not stand out from the crowd. Simple, and balanced. What we have seen, and what is reasonable to conclude.

Now tell me:
Why in the everloving fuck is that NOT your conclusion?!?

Because a town!RR would not be this incompetent about the fucking setup.

1.) Our initial concern about Farside was that she would take her win on M/LYLO and hand scum a win.

Yeah that's not what you said so stop fucking pretending it was.

You multiple times warned of a THIRD PARTY ENDGAME happening. You MULTIPLE TIMES told us, "farside's role will allow her to endgame everyone alive by allowing her to reach the points needed". This was the appeal to fear you were using.

Not once. Not ONCE. Did you use "in mylo she'll achieve her win and scum will endgame". Which is still an appeal to fear by the way. Just not the one you were employing. Inconsistency, and still doesn't change the original problem even if not.

The list of things scum walked into that we knew about is so long that positing a scum!us requires you to be claiming that we deliberately played against wincon numerous times.

OR.
Here's a simpler answer.
I don't know all the facts of what mechanics were in play.
And the scumteam certainly hasn't.
Even with you as scum, that fact remains true. You are good at setup spec. You were privy to many of the mechanics in play. You knew much of how the game would work. But you are not omniscient. There are gaps even in your knowledge. There are assumptions you could have made that were proven false. Or perhaps you made correct assumptions, but misapplied the timing behind them such that they were incorrect.

The simple fact of the matter is. You can be fully playing to your wincon, and then make a move which was with the benefit of hindsight a mistake. And then later you try to make lemonade out of lemons, by covering it up: by claiming that omniscience hindsight of, "if we were scum we wouldn't have made this mistake".

But you do make mistakes in your scumgame.
You made plenty in SC's game, even though you were still largely playing to the best of your known optimal knowledge. And then you did the exact same fucking thing you are doing this game. You said, "Well we wouldn't have made those mistakes if we were scum!" Yet you did. You're both human. You're less inclined to make a mechanical error than the average player. You are not immune to it altogether.

No scumteam which can be pressed will provide a perfect answer--absolutely none of them.
Not you.
Not grapes.
Not Almost50.
Not Fuzzy.

There is no picture which has every possible detail accurate. Even in postgame! Even after all is said and done! Even when I have access to every game PT! I still won't fully understand what happened at some points in the game! I still won't have a full grasp of the details which went into each and every action. Because in a game this complex, there will never be a simple, easy answer.

But of the difficult ones.

The simplest and easiest one, by FAR, is that you are scum. I cannot answer every question. But I can answer most. And that's FAR fucking more than can be said of those pushing grapes, yourself included.

I have asked what makes grapes scum.
Silence.
I have pointed out why grapes is town.
Not quite silence there, but pretty damn close to it.

I have asked for why you are town.
You've given misdirection and misreps for the majority of your answers, not actually answering the question.
I have pointed out why you are scum.
And you point out the few weaknesses in my argument and take it as dismantling the whole of the argument when no it fucking doesn't, the vast majority remains uncountered.

It doesn't get any clearer than that.

I'm not the setup/mod genius you are, but I know enough to know that the amount of slots who could never be mislynched in this game is too high for there to be only one scum left and that's the only threat.

It's precisely BECAUSE I am the "setup/mod genius" that I know there's only one threat left.
In a game with one explicitly-neutral third party (Xkfyu at the start), one could-be-neutral-or-town player (farside), and FOUR players who are explicitly not town (but friendly to town), you've got a pure town basis of 13 players AT MAXIMUM. At absolute maximum, thirteen pure town players. Assuming five scum plus a sixth as a traitor. And assuming all the third parties play as third parties. You've got a fucking town of thirteen at most. That number sound familiar to you?

Yeah it's because it's almost exactly the same number of pure town names I had in Gistou.
And with the crystal gems being almost exact duplicates of the undead risen slaves, you get a town+'town' of 17-19 players, which is the exact ballpark I had in Gistou.

This game is

slightly

smaller than Gistou, yes. But it still falls within the range of normal. fucking. balance.

Also, with this, I'd like to point out you are CONTINUING, time and time again, to appeal to fear. To appeal to paranoia. To appeal to any fucking thing which will allow you to leverage in an extra mislynch. Saying more than one scum allows for thoughts such as Shiro not being confirmed town, for instance. Which allows for Shiro to be mislynched, when the scum need every mislynch they can get.

The town!RR I know would never do this. You are projecting hypothetical scenarios which run contrary to known evidence and probabilities. "What if farside's third party who can endgame us?" "What if the crystal gems are a threat?" "What if farside's actually scum?" (Earlier, butstill.) "What if there's an extra scum alive?"

Instead of paying attention to known. fucking. facts. Like RR as town does.

Also!

I remember from the first game. At least one head of Reasonably Rational is

a serious Steven Universe buff

.
They hold extreme flavor knowledge, and use it for deadly accuracy.
Yet, this Reasonably Rational is ignoring the

strong fucking flavor reason

for there to only be one scum remaining.
Their flavor knowledge almost won the town the first Steven Universe game, in that Centipeedle of then was possible as a scum role and they identified Sonic's claim AS a scum role off of flavor.
Yet here, RR is running contrary to the flavor which tells them only one scum left.

This is, through and through, Reasonably Rational's scumgame.

mastin2 · Mon Dec 19, 2016 5:49 pm

And, like.

We know so fucking many things about the game right now.
Every fucking fact about the setup says to me we have one scum remaining: Ruby (Army).
We also know that flavor fits Ruby abilities--Jasper, the traitor, is not part of the core squad. Neither knows of the other, until later.
Leggy, the youngest and rookie among the rubies, had no abilities this game, fitting.
Doc, their leader, coordinated them, and had abilities which amplified this.
Eyeball had hero worship of Jasper--and an ability which worked in synchronization with Jasper.
Navy was one of the more bland characters--and TWIE was almost a goon, having only an episode ability and a singular self-targeting ability which was effectively a self-watch/self-voyeur.
What kinds of powers do you think Army would have?

Even if you don't have a clear answer to that. Even if you do and the answer is "player who is not RR fits!".

I ask of you.
With only one scum remaining.
Who. is. it.

Not two!
No. Fuck no. There aren't two.
No second traitor bullshit.

One scum left.

Who?

Not the crystal gems.
Not Shiro, who was bubbled.
Not me.
That's half the game.

So you've got Almost50/grapes/Fuzzy/RR.

And I repeat.

What makes you think that grapes is scum?
I've asked this many times. Never gotten a clear response. It's just, "oh grapes is scum". "Oh, it's grapes because...well because?" "Grapes is scum by POE" is the closest I have to an answer. Alright. So then the question becomes:
1: Why isn't grapes town? I've pointed out just a FEW reasons. Among them? The likelihood grapes was the N1 scum kill and grapes pushing literally EVERY FUCKING SCUM to the point where your options are "grapes powerbussed the entire fucking scumteam" or "grapes is town". (Guess which I find more likely?)
2: Why are the

others

town? Namely, Reasonably Rational.

Okay. Say you don't want grapes. Even though there seems to be nobody doing that.
Same question about Fuzzy and Almost50: why would they be scum, and why would they not be town?

Now for Reasonably Rational.
I have given you time and time again the reason they are not town.
I have given you time and time again the reason they are scum.
I have asked why they would be town--to not much of a response at all. (Almost50's response? Deflect attention onto grapes without actually answering the fucking question. Reasonably Rational's response? Much the same, albeit with less direct focus towards grapes.)
I have asked why they cannot be scum--and the closest I've gotten is a response from RR of "we wouldn't be this stupid as scum!". (To which I say they wouldn't be this stupid as town, either.)

It's not. that. damn. hard.

I've weighed the options. Really, I have.
I have considered grapes as scum.
I have considered Fuzzy as scum.
I have considered Almost50 as scum.

None fit as well as Reasonably Rational does.
And yes, I've not come to this conclusion blindly. I've done isoing of myself, looking at my past points. Among them rather good analysis I did about how Shadow_step and RR were a viable scumteam--I discarded it. But I had absolutely no reason to have discarded it. My reason was, "I'm going to throw that out because I don't wanna".

So tell me.
How much of choosing to lynch grapes/not lynch RR is because you don't wanna?

If you approach the game from a viewpoint of feelings, sure. Maybe grapes feels like better for scum. I can see that. I can feel that, believe it or not.
But if you take the coldly logical, rational approach, there's one and only one reasonable candidate for being scum: RR.

mastin2 · Mon Dec 19, 2016 5:56 pm

In post 11535, Reasonably Rational wrote:Except we gave reads and thoughts for how to proceed if we died every single day, and we even told Fuzzy to shoot us last night if he had any doubts, and then gave thoughts on how to proceed when he saw our flip.

Yeah the funny thing is none of these are things you don't do as scum.
In fact, rather explicitly, you RELY on them to pass as actual gamesolving to look good: you make some stuff which posits an idea, theoretically good! On paper, what you say is technically true, and remains valid. You additionally are skilled enough where you will risk some bravado by daring the town to come after you, because you hold the confidence to know that doing so is a good deterrent from them trying to. (Simple psychology: people wanting to be shot won't be, people who don't want to be shot will be. This applies to 90% of players, and Fuzzy is certainly among them and easily fooled by the simple trick.)

But when examined, it all falls apart. Your plans have done jackshit. Nothing you have proposed has worked the way you promised it would. And instead of owning up to the mistake, you have been trying to find every excuse to justify having been wrong, when the simple fact was you. were. consistently. wrong. Because the ideas which looked so good on paper would never work in reality, not with the scum having what they ended up having, and not with the town acting the way you were in the know of how they would act.

mastin2 · Mon Dec 19, 2016 5:59 pm

In post 11538, Reasonably Rational wrote:Perfect example of scum sitting back and waiting for the tide to turn in their favor before magically showing up with a long post and lots of research to push their mislynch, just at the right time. Like for real. Lynch this scummy shit on the spot. Obviously pre-prepared post coming in just at the right time to push a mislynch and re-direct any suspicion. Scum play 101 by someone who has spent the whole game doing the same kind of thing.

Odd.

This seems to be a perfect descriptor for someone in the game, yes.

It would not be grapes I would select.

Three guesses as to who I think this describes.
Hint: rhymes with "Durr us", while also rhyming with "clicks" and "definitely criminal". All at once.

mastin2 · Mon Dec 19, 2016 6:06 pm

In post 11550, grapes wrote:RR's begun to flail viciously.

On that note.

RR has spouted.
Spewed.
Time and time again.

"Hey mastina get your head in the game."
"Hey, where's the mastina we used to know?"
"I know you're capable of giving more than what you are, mastina."
"Mastina, you're better than this when you actually try."
"Mastina, please actually try here because when you do you can wreck scum."

HEY WELL GUESS WHAT.
WHENEVER I HAVE TRIED I'VE FUCKING WRECKED SCUM.
SirCakez. TWIE.
And now.

WHO DO YOU SUPPOSE IT IS THAT I AM GOING AFTER?
This is literally the mastina Reasonably Rational

asked

me to be. And yet, in spite of this, they are choosing to pretend it's not, simply because they don't like who the target of my attention is.

mastin2 · Mon Dec 19, 2016 6:15 pm

In post 11569, Randomnamechange wrote:so much of this is complete bs it's ridiculous

Okay.

Show me.

Show me exactly you feel is false.
And better yet, show me why! I'll wait.
Rather, if you actually did this (you won't), I would be showing you exactly where he did in fact do those things.

The 'case' against grapes is not based on anything tangible.
Just, "lolscum".

The 'defense' against RR being scum is not based on anything tangible.
Just, "lolno".

mastin2 · Mon Dec 19, 2016 6:16 pm

In post 11570, Randomnamechange wrote:VOTE: grapes
still really think RR is town and last scum makes sense as being between the two of them. Will give tfl benefit of the doubt here.

Like.

I really wish you were scum.

Really fucking wish you were scum.

For shit like this.

Which is scumbaggery regardless of alignment.

But I know you aren't, so will pray Magna can keep you in check because an attitude like this can and will fucking lose the game.

mastin2 · Mon Dec 19, 2016 6:21 pm

In post 11576, grapes wrote:"But they were so town in the hood where they can suck my dick without fear of pissing anyone else off"
-Most of the scum and bad town this game

I could quote any number of grapes posts to say this but this one is a particularly good one.

grapes is on fire here.

mastin2 · Mon Dec 19, 2016 6:25 pm

In post 11578, Randomnamechange wrote:They genuinely seemed interested in gamesolving.

And the evidence for this is where?

Because surely if Reasonably Rational is capable of gamesolving this game, they would show it off to the people who are almost their equals in that field, no? And not, say. Someone who has no fucking idea by their own fucking confession how to?

mastin2 · Mon Dec 19, 2016 6:29 pm

In post 11587, MagnaofIllusion wrote:
In post 11512, Reasonably Rational wrote:It turns out our concerns were just paranoia, but they were absolutely justified.
No, actually the flip proves that the paranoia was absolutely not justified. But at this stage I know you aren’t going to ever see that if you aren’t scum. And if you are scum no reason for you to say it wasn’t justified.

So much this.

mastin2 · Mon Dec 19, 2016 6:34 pm

In post 11591, Reasonably Rational wrote:We tunneled farside because it was CLEAR to us that she had to be a malevolent third party, period, and we were fighting against two conftown who REFUSED to even consider lynching her.

Yeah.
And you were wrong.
And the two conftown who refused to lynch her were right.
So now, there's two choices, depending on your alignment.
Nut up, admit you were wrong, and eat rope for your mistake, directing the town what to do after it (town),
Or continue to squeal as you get lynched (scum).

You're fucking dead, period, end of discussion, and it's happening today. The question isn't whether that's happening. It's whether that ends the game in a town win or if the game isn't yet solved.

mastin2 · Mon Dec 19, 2016 6:36 pm

In post 11592, Reasonably Rational wrote:(Wholly unrelated, but I just realized that this game has surpassed Smite as having the most posts of any game on site.)

You're also slow on the uptake since I've known this was the case since page 400--before it happened. I knew it was going to happen, and knew it had happened as it was happening but then again I like records and that page is special to me.

mastin2 · Mon Dec 19, 2016 6:37 pm

In post 11594, MagnaofIllusion wrote:
In post 11591, Reasonably Rational wrote:@MOI: A50's ability said any abilities could not fail. It did not specify whether that excluded factional abilities, and based on the verbiage used by the role PM's we've seen, I assume that means factional abilities were also empowered.
That's a pretty bad assumption that makes me wonder why you would just blindly assume such as opposed to asking like I did.

Exactly.

Town!RR would ask every possible question to V.
For those that they couldn't get answered, they'd ask others who might (even

might

) be able to get an answer to ask in their stead.

Not deliberately try to avoid.

Reasonably Rational is being neither reasonable nor rational.

mastin2 · Mon Dec 19, 2016 6:40 pm

In post 11598, Randomnamechange wrote:he has put more work into town's direction than any other player

One, not alignment indicative--RR does that regardless of alignment.
Two, where the fuck has that direction led the town? It wasn't them who lynched so much as a single scum. Every push they had made has moved us

further away from

lynching scum.

mastin2 · Mon Dec 19, 2016 6:49 pm

In post 11603, grapes wrote:Almost's ability lends more credence to scum not killing and also trying to brew up paranoia on fuzzy if he's town. That's pretty clear.

Like.
Anyone who doesn't get this fact shouldn't be playing this game at this point.
Because it is painfully self-fucking evident.

And literally the only players who knew of this.
Were Almost50, Reasonably Rational, and Thefuzzylogic.

grapes had NO possible way of knowing this.

None

.

So the lynch should be on...one of Almost50, Reasonably Rational, and Thefuzzylogic.

mastin2 · Mon Dec 19, 2016 6:55 pm

In post 11635, Reasonably Rational wrote:P-edit: Really? You're going to wander into trust tell territory now? Wow.

This is, one, a literal fucking scumclaim because trust telling is by definition something which would mean grapes is town,
Two, scumplaining because if RR feels it is legitimate then he sees it as a cheapskate way for grapes to escape the lynch,
And three, the absolute most scumbag thing to accuse someone of, because it is vying for a modkill to further a scum wincon, something which is utterly despicable.

mastin2 · Mon Dec 19, 2016 6:57 pm

In post 11640, grapes wrote:
RR wrote:P-edit: Really? You're going to wander into trust tell territory now? Wow.
How is saying that I wouldn't bus my whole team a trust tell and not just common fucking sense.

^Basically.

mastin2 · Mon Dec 19, 2016 7:00 pm

In post 11652, grapes wrote:Mastin; your opinion on the new development that Skybird went out of her way to derail a Twin Wings/Xk alliance the Night before Xk killed skybird with his ability, while having the ability to be immune to all actions when in an alliance? Do you think this was scum simply trying to search for gems? Or do you think it was trying to save twin wings? Why was she still affected by Xk's shot? Who, precisely, was aware of Xk's role and stress requirements?

My opinion: it's completely irrelevant. It literally doesn't matter. I couldn't give a damn.

mastin2 · Mon Dec 19, 2016 7:02 pm

In post 11654, Reasonably Rational wrote:If there are only 5+1 scum in this game(which yes, flavorwise makes perfect sense, but you'll recall in SU, I was QUITE adamant about the possibility that Lapis could be scum by flavor, and that STILL HOLDS TRUE HERE), how exactly does that compare to a game which had 9 scum+cult mechanics?

Combination of slightly smaller game and singleball.

It's really self-explanatory, really.

mastin2 · Thu Dec 22, 2016 9:37 am

In post 11669, Reasonably Rational wrote:So you think it's acceptable to make homophobic slurs in a game?

Interesting you'd consider that a slur when it pretty clearly isn't one.

Also,

My opinion of you just dropped like an anvil.

With all of the times you have said this phrase, that anvil must be at the core of the earth by now.

Specious and bullshit argument since we were onto SC early and in particular I spent time forcing him to interact and then got him to basically word spew shit his pants when I said he had waved the white flag.

I've already detailed exactly why your SC push means jackshit.

Furthermore, I had my eyes on TWIE before anyone else in the game. I believe as early as day 3 I was making a note (I believe to A50) to watch and see if TWIE pounced and engaged and to go after him hard if he didn't by a certain deadline. That's not even in question.

Actually, weren't you the one saying, "Hey, if TWIE doesn't do something by D5, he's probably scum", specifically asking for us to

wait

until that day?

Oh yeah you were. You weren't telling us to look at TWIE. Quite the opposite, you were telling us to let TWIE live longer. I'd rather not be forced to go through your iso to find the quotes proving this, but if you're honest, you'll flat-out admit this to be true and if you go and lie and claim it isn't, I WILL go and pull those quotes up. I'd just rather you fess up yourself and save me the effort.

So,

You can't just make shit up because people can go look, even in a game approaching 12,000 posts.

My thoughts exactly!

The definition of a trust tell is using confirmable self-meta for gain.

Yes. And you were upset because you felt grapes was using a trust tell.

The problem with that is...if grapes was using a trust tell, by definition, he would be town.
If grapes wasn't town, then he wasn't using a trust tell.

That you thought he was using a trust tell is a scumclaim because trust tells of this nature can only be utilized by town, and REGARDLESS OF THE TRUTH OR FALSEHOOD OF THE CLAIM OF IT BEING A TRUST TELL, the important thing here is that you

thought

it was a trust tell, and that's where the scumclaim lies.

mastin2 · Thu Dec 22, 2016 9:38 am

In post 11682, TheFuzzylogic99 wrote:like how RR is both trying to buddy me and throw me under the bus at the same time........

Gee, I wonder what that says about their alignment?

mastin2 · Thu Dec 22, 2016 9:51 am

In post 11692, MagnaofIllusion wrote:1. Fuzzy is scum and can’t both Vig and Mafia kill the same Night.
2. the Mafia no-killed to frame Fuzzy.
3. the Mafia tried to take a shot at myself / Random despite the public announcement of our commute
4. the Mafia also killed farside.
5. Grapes is a Leftover who joined the Mafia and can’t make the faction kill and Shiro was bubbled overnight.

There is no real way that I can see to parse which of these is correct.

Here, I'll help.

You are assuming Almost50 is town--safe assumption.

If you assume Almost50's result is correct, grapes took no action last night.
This either rules out #3, or indicates that someone outside of grapes did so.
This also either rules out #4, or indicates that someone outside of grapes and Fuzzy did so. (Fuzzy had no reason to double-kill farside.)
Ergo, the options are 1, 2, 5, or 3/4 with the killer almost assuredly being outside Almost50/grapes/Fuzzy. (AKA...Reasonably Rational.)

If you are willing to assume Fuzzy is town--and the kill pattern to me suggests so--then you can safely rule out number 1.
If you are willing to assume the idea of grapes being a leftover who joined the mafia is absurd (which I do), then you can safely rule out number five.

Which leaves you with...
-Mafia no-killed to frame Fuzzy (no duh)
-Mafia killed farside (gee wonder who is possible for this)
-Mafia tried to kill the commuted gems.

Of note: RR, if the factional kill counts as enhanced (which it apparently does), WOULD have incentive to try and shoot at a gem I suppose. Because when running into a question of "enhanced kill priority" vs "commuting", it might not be clear who wins. (Though I'm pretty sure commute > enhanced kill. This is a question YOU should be asking to Varsoon, MoI.)

So add Almost and Fuzzy to my “Not Lynching Today” pool. What leaves grapes / RR / Shiro.

Shiro is ruled out unless you buy into the two scum left bullshit. grapes can only be scum by using that model. So what you're effectively saying is: Lynch RR.

I get that you are pushing this so hard because you want the logic to extend to yourself also but the big hole in this theory is that Skybird having less suspicion means that the odds of XK trying to kill him as opposed to Shadow are much lower, right? I had to convince Xk to fire that ability on Skybird in the Gems PT. It certainly wasn’t a certainty which makes it not outside the realm of possibility that Skybird thought they could save their partner by substituting themselves with Shadow’s slot in the alliance even if they did know of the power.

Likewise there are reasons outside “Preventing Xk from maybe using an ability on non-so-suspected Skybird” that scum would decide to kill Yume when they did and your constant “why would scum do that” looks like you are handwaving those possibilities. I also don’t like that you keep harping on the “I can make sure that my hammer vote prevents escape of scum” ability as confirming you as Town now that we have confirmation that farside was Town.

^This.

Also, food for thought: RR has been wrong on the gems. RR has been wrong on farside. RR is wrong on grapes.
...What exactly has Reasonably Rational been

right

about?

Damn right I'm putting some burden of proficiency on them.

You seem to be ignoring the fact that the entire Crystal Gems faction could be endgamed even if were 5 players strong simply by scum killing all the Town players in this analysis. Why?

Because RR is scum, that's why.

In post 11679, Reasonably Rational wrote:Also, our plan that I spent two days pushing was to lynch Farside and have you shoot Shadow
Also you understand that this sort of statement makes me want to insta-vote you, correct? Because that is the definition of a scum-beneficial plan and no amount of “I’m justified in my paranoia” makes that fact go away.

So why the fuck aren't you?!?

In post 11647, mastin2 wrote:Yeah that's not what you said so stop fucking pretending it was. You multiple times warned of a THIRD PARTY ENDGAME happening. You MULTIPLE TIMES told us, "farside's role will allow her to endgame everyone alive by allowing her to reach the points needed". This was the appeal to fear you were using.
Not once. Not ONCE. Did you use "in mylo she'll achieve her win and scum will endgame". Which is still an appeal to fear by the way. Just not the one you were employing. Inconsistency, and still doesn't change the original problem even if not
Actually I want to see RR’s response to this.

So do I. I want answers to most of my points, yet people seem to be picking and choosing which to respond to, hoping that I will forget the stronger points I made that were left unanswered. (Which to be fair: is a pretty damn probable occurrence.)

But it is worth noting that what Grapes said was no-where near a Trust tell.

Yes, it was nowhere near a trust tell. But the important thing to note is that RR THOUGHT it was a trust tell. And therein lies the scumclaim from Reasonably Rational.

mastin2 · Thu Dec 22, 2016 10:00 am

In post 11698, Randomnamechange wrote:@mastin im a gut player. I can't do a great job of explaining why I townread RR. But I do

Oh yeah and guess what?
I have a gut scumread on RR, and a gut townread on grapes.
What say you to that?

...

Yeah. "Gut?" doesn't answer basic fucking questions.
I asked you where Reasonably Rational's direction has led the town--you could answer that. You haven't.
I told you that effort from RR is a nulltell--no acknowledgment there.
I asked you where the evidence for their alleged genuine interest in gamesolving was--you could answer that. You haven't.
I asked you to describe what in my arguments was BS--you haven't. You just said "because gut" to why.

That, just stuff addressed to

you specifically

. Which you should have literally no trouble showing. I didn't ask for you to show me why RR was town to you. I didn't ask for reasons justifying your read. (Okay I kind-of indirectly did, but that was to the whole town not you specifically.) I asked you specific questions that "gut?" doesn't answer. I asked you questions which "I'm a gut player" doesn't give a response to.

Gut justifies jackshit.

It's true. I have a gut townread on grapes and a gut scumread on RR. I said it above in a somewhat-sarcastic tone, but it remains true. You don't see me relying on that gut, though, now, do you? You see me continuing to press reason after reason for why RR is scum, and reason after reason for why grapes isn't!

So FUCK your gut and start giving some logic.
Because gut aint gonna cut it.

mastin2 · Thu Dec 22, 2016 10:05 am

In post 11704, Almost50 wrote:I think Scum!RR would have used that TWIE event more strategically than they did.

Except they did?

There were players (maybe including myself) bringing up TWIE for literally DAYS. And Reasonably Rational, who at the time was solidly in the townbloc, kept dismissing those concerns, telling us, "Let's save analyzing TWIE for later. Let's let him live for now. TWIE is a lategame player. We can judge him better later than now. Let's wait until D6 to even think about lynching him. Sure, TWIE hasn't done anything yet, but let's give him that time anyway."

You remember that, right?

I sure as hell do.

mastin2 · Thu Dec 22, 2016 10:07 am

In post 11706, grapes wrote:
@Mastin
- Fuzzy's the play.

No.

This is my game right now.

I'm not going to lose it because--I'll borrow a phrase I believe Titus uses, though it could be Mathblade's or even Klingoncelt's--of pants-on-head play.

Fuzzy is not the correct play.

It's really just RR.

mastin2 · Thu Dec 22, 2016 10:11 am

In post 11707, Shiro wrote:Btw other than the fact that he needed mastin to push through RR, I still think nobody should discard the idea that Mastin might be 3rd party leftover thus not even needed to be killed/mislynched from scum PoV. Thus making her possibly an unoptimal kill unless certain she needs death.

There are multiple ways I can prove this false btw. (In hindsight, the alliance thingy I did would've been best for tonight, with the thingy I have planned for tonight done earlier, that way I could just ask a particular player to 100% confirm beyond any shadow of a doubt I'm telling the truth.) I am town. Pure town. Not leftover town. FUCK the idea of leftovers left in the game. This shit is the sort of thing which is causing people to try and mislynch grapes. It's simple. One mafia. Two gems. The rest town.

mastin2 · Thu Dec 22, 2016 10:19 am

In post 11791, TheFuzzylogic99 wrote:wait is this not a lynch?????
I am confused

Oh yeah.

I uh.

Kinda forgot about my own ability.

Whoops.

Well this would be a good time to mention it, since scum already knew about it thanks to allying with me. (Shadow_step.)

My ally power?
The mystical power I tried to keep scum from learning about/exploiting?
The power which doesn't work in lylo but works at all other times?

When I'm allied with someone, in exchange for not having an alliance PT, we take two extra votes to lynch.
And guess what.
That means it'll take seven of eight players to lynch grapes.

You are NEVER getting me to vote grapes. And presumably, grapes won't self-vote either.

So lynching grapes today is literally impossible.

Bitch. Moan. Complain. Whine all you want about that fact.
It's not changing my choice.

So yes.
You have the power of deciding what we do today.
Lynch RR.
Lynch some other player for whatever fucking bullshit reason you decide.
Or no lynch.

A lynch on grapes, however, won't happen.

mastin2 · Thu Dec 22, 2016 10:30 am

In post 11808, MagnaofIllusion wrote:
@Mastin
- answer me this one question then regarding RR ...
RR had access as scum to a free "Kill anyone" Mafia kill last Night. This I have confirmed with the Mod.
Why does last scum RR not use it to kill you who is the biggest thorn in her side? Why does they not use it to kill myself or Random who are confirmed Gems?
Why do they fail to shoot when doing so just means PoE will bite them in the ass regardless?

Why not kill you?
Two possibilities--one, the kill on you would fail, if commute > enhanced kill. (Remember, Fuzzy explicitly confirmed that an enhanced kill will still fail against an ability which has superior priority. Basically, enhanced kill != unblockable kill. The only unblockable kill is a slice-of-life kill.)
Two, RR shooting you literally fucking confirms: "Oh hey grapes isn't scum, it MUST be one of the players who has access to the enhanced kill". Those players being Almost50/RR/Fuzzy. With one of you dead, it's seven alive with three suspects. Squirm all they like, that's an autolose no matter what. This,

aside from

how having a second kill the night Fuzzy kills would be considered confirming for Fuzzy (thus, rendering Fuzzy as conftown), narrowing it down EVEN FURTHER to Almost50/RR...and in that pool, Almost50 is unlikely for the very reasons you yourself earlier outlined. Ergo, had a scum!RR successfully shot you last night...it would be game over for them today.

Why not kill me?
Simple--RR knew about Almost50's investigation on grapes.
RR knew that if there were two kills last night, Fuzzy would be treated as confirmed town.

Do you deny either of these?

If not, the reason Reasonably Rational doesn't kill me last night is really fucking obvious: killing me would confirm grapes as town, AND confirm Fuzzy as town, leaving...
...Once again, a lynch pool consisting of Almost50/RR. With seven alive.

Instaloss.

It's really not that hard to grasp.
This is basic math.

RR had the most reason of any player to no kill last night, because ANY kill RR would make would confirm them as scum.

And you say that POE bites them in the ass right now--no, it doesn't. We have eight alive. Four of them are suspects. We can't lynch all four.
This is because of the farside kill rather than killing one of the four.
And the two who orchestrated this were...Almost50 (who you feel is town), and Reasonably Rational (who you have pointed out bundleloads of reasons for being scum).

In short, RR made the ONLY play which WOULDN'T leave them in a POE loss.
I laid this all out before.

mastin2 · Thu Dec 22, 2016 10:37 am

So, thank you whoever suggested me allying with grapes. You have yourself to blame for grapes being unlynchable today.
If we don't lynch RR today, then I'm going to ally with grapes again.
If we lynch RR today and the game doesn't end--fine. I'll relent. I'll ally with whoever you choose to. Because if RR is lynched today and the game doesn't end, obviously I was wrong on something so yes I'll submit to your terms and conditions.
If we don't lynch RR today, tough. I'll submit grapes again and grapes will presumably submit me.

Basically:
-Lynch RR, game ends: yay us. We win.
-Lynch RR, game doesn't end: I'll do whatever the fuck you ask me to. Even lynch grapes tomorrow if you ask it of me.
-Lynch someone else/nobody: I'm allying with grapes again.

This, because of my confidence it really fucking is just Reasonably Rational. I'll continue protecting grapes until RR is dead. I realize that's potentially holding the game hostage. But as far as I'm concerned: the 'case' against grapes is utter bullshit. So I'm going to protect grapes until either RR is dead, or I am.

mastin2 · Thu Dec 22, 2016 10:51 am

In post 11816, Reasonably Rational wrote:Who are you and what the fuck have you done with Mastin?

The name's mastina.

And I've made it clear.

grapes is not getting lynched while both you and I are alive.

If you are so sure grapes is scum.

Then die for your belief.

Almost50 is willing to die for his beliefs. (Though, I find it ironic he didn't realize grapes couldn't be lynched since he knew of this ability.)
Fuzzy is willing to die for his beliefs.

If you are so certain grapes is scum.
Then leave a case for it, and let your death without the game ending do all the speaking in the world.
Your death, with the game not ending, proves that there is at least one scum alive in Almost50/grapes/Fuzzy.
If you feel that it is necessary, make a case against grapes.
And if you feel there could be a second scum aside from grapes!
Leave a case for who that second scum is, and why they are scum.

But I'm planting my foot down. grapes cannot be lynched today. And I WILL ally with grapes again if you worm your way out of the noose. (Fuck, that'd actually be beneficial in a way. My power doesn't work in lylo situations, which includes mylo. With a death tonight, and a lynch today, tomorrow would be 6 alive--and if my power was proven to work even with 6 alive, that means it's not mylo.)

If you are town: I am wrong. Your death alone proves I am wrong, of course. The game wouldn't end after your lynch. So that would do the speaking for you...but you can always spend time pre-lynch typing out what the plan should be post-RR lynch. If you are town, spend time doing that. Spend time outlying EXACTLY what should, and should not, be done. Spend time outlying who is, and is not, scum. Spend time leaving a plan to be followed.

Fuck, if you're town I've run out of plans. So I'd be likely to follow your plan to the fucking letter. If you are town, then I've got nothing left to offer the game. So if you are town, I will listen to you after you are dead. But not one moment before.

mastin2 · Thu Dec 22, 2016 10:56 am

(Just for the lulz, went and checked: it was farside who suggested I ally with grapes. MoI gave his stamp of approval for that, too. Almost50, like me, probably forgot about my alliance power, though he's probably gonna feel mighty stupid when he realizes what just happened.)

mastin2 · Thu Dec 22, 2016 11:11 am

In post 11820, MagnaofIllusion wrote:Because I get the strong feeling this is yet another "grand plan" that is going to fucking blow up in everyone's face.

It's not much of a grand plan.

It's a natural consequence of you allowing me to ally with grapes, not knowing what my power was, and now that it has been revealed, being unable to stop me from delivering that ultimatum.

RR dies, game ends: we win, congratulations.
RR dies, game continues:

I have no more plans and will follow yours

.
You select somebody else or nobody to die: I ally with grapes again and grapes continues to be unable to be touched tomorrow. (Unless tomorrow is mylo, which my power will inform me of.)

It is a simple planting-foot-down read. You won't convince me to vote grapes. So lynching grapes is impossible. I leave it up to you what to do given that knowledge. But I'm telling you that unless my RR scumread is proven wrong, I'm not relenting from this grapes defense.

It's a single day plan. A single day action. I will deal with the consequences of my choice. If you want grapes gone, you have to get rid of RR first. If you want someone else gone, fine, just know that grapes lives by that choice.

I have no other moves to make. Just this one. If I am proven wrong on RR--you won't see me make so much as a single iota of effort. I will sheep. Promise you. I will. No rebellion. No resistance! I will do as I am told. Exactly as I am told. (So convey your instructions as you would to a child, step by step to make sure I don't fuck it up.) I will not deviate. I will not diverge. I will follow your plan. Your strategy. Exactly as you lay it out.

If I am wrong on RR. I deserve nothing less than doing exactly that. And so I shall do exactly that.

If I'm

not

wrong on RR, though? If I'm not wrong on RR, then guess fucking what?

We win the fucking game.

So go ahead. Tell me what you're planning to do. Tell me what you want me to do if RR flips town. I'll follow it. I'll voice any concern I'll have, but I'll follow it regardless of whether you address the concern or not. If. RR flips town. I have no need to sell you on anything else in the game. I will follow, BLINDLY FOLLOW, you if I am wrong on RR. That simple! No strings attached. No agenda. No questions asked. (Okay so I'll ask questions but I won't let those questions stop me from following.)

If I'm right, though, no need for anything. Because the game ends right then and there.

It's a really simple right/wrong choice. A really simple right/wrong gambit. If I am right, the game ends. If I am wrong, the game continues and I will no longer influence it. That's a promise--absolute fucking

promise

on my part. I won't interfere. I won't intervene. I will do exactly as asked of me if I am wrong. That simple.

mastin2 · Thu Dec 22, 2016 12:18 pm

In post 11823, Reasonably Rational wrote:Instead of alienating people, I'm asking you to re-evaluate.

Not happening.

I am not lynching grapes today.
If you live, I am not lynching grapes tomorrow.
If you die and the game doesn't end?
Fuck yes I will lynch grapes. Assuming that's what I'm told to do, which presumably it will be.

But I'm not backing down from this.
I don't even care if it's wrong. I have accepted that is a possibility. I have accepted there is a possibility grapes is scum and I am defending scum today.

But if today were mylo, my ability would not have worked--so we know we can't lose today.
And if tomorrow is mylo, then my ability will not work--which means grapes would be lynched.
And if you die, then I don't even USE an alliance unless you/MoI specifically tell me to use an alliance.
It's really that simple.

I'm very bothered by the fact that you are growing ever more hostile personally towards me.

Maybe that has to do with how you are imagining slights when there are none, e.g. you calling grapes's comment, what were your words? Homophobic? It was clearly not. And then there was saying grapes was trust telling. When grapes was clearly not.

If you keep on imagining offenses where there are none.
And you act demeaning towards me brushing off those nonexistent offenses as being nonexistent.
...No shit I'm going to be more hostile?

You're calling me an asshole for not recognizing things which...aren't there. And I'm sorry if you say they are, but to me they aren't there. And I am always. 100% of the time. Going to assume things like this hold alignment relevancy. Unless I can clearly tell they are not. (I will give the benefit of the doubt when it is made personal. I will not grant the benefit of the doubt when someone tries to gain an advantage in-game from it, which I felt you were doing.) And to me what you have pushed has not shown me these are null.

I will grant you--as of this post--that you probably were sincere in seeing that as a slur. (To which I say it wasn't and I disagree, but that's beside the point.) At the time I felt you were using a fallacious argument. I forget which one, not quite ad hominem, but more..."accusing the player of using ad hominem when they weren't"? There's a fallacy for that, I just don't remember its name. And that is what I saw you doing, though I will acknowledge that was an incorrect assumption on my end.

I still feel your complaint about the trust tell, however, contrary to your claims. Was a scumclaim.

The fact that you refuse to even evaluate other suspects and freely admit such is confusing to me.

You act as if I haven't already done this already.

I've BEEN doing it.
The whole damn time since the fire was reignited in me.
When we had Creature and kraska alive, I was lost, I was out of it--I didn't really think they were scum anymore, but I didn't have any ideas. I didn't know where to look. I was lost. I was doing the analysis, and every player had more reason to be town than scum.

That still remains true. And don't deny it. If you say otherwise, you're a liar. Literally every player in this game--even you--has more reason to be town than to be scum.

But one of those is, by definition, wrong. And I know there's one wrong. But I strongly feel it isn't grapes.
And I strongly feel that of the ones who are likely to be wrong, you best fit.

That doesn't mean I haven't ruled out Fuzzy.
I have thought about Fuzzy's play and how suboptimal it has been, how Fuzzy could totally pull off the guise of a sheep, and justify killing actions as they were dictated--following your and Almost50's word, for instance, is something Fuzzy could do especially to remove a wildcard like farside from the game who Fuzzy is smart enough to know was a threat to scum. I know that Fuzzy isn't as stupid as people assume him to be most times, so his scumplay is smart enough where he could be scum here.

But I have also considered his actions and thought about how much they fit for town. I concluded, near-identically to MoI, the thought of Fuzzy being unable to both faction kill and vig was somewhat unlikely. I also concluded that Fuzzy most likely did indeed have the vig shot. These are things which mechanically make sense. And the lack of a scum kill last night does look like it's an attempt to keep Fuzzy from being confirmed town, to leave the doubt and paranoia of maybe--just maybe--Fuzzy's vig was indeed one-shot and he used the factional kill last night on farside. As listed above, that is something I've thought about. But the frame looks far more likely to me.

I have thought about my stance on Almost50, and realized that ironically enough in spite of my stance of reading things off of facts, mechanics, and logic rather than on feels...the main reason I am townreading him is exactly that, off of feels. Off of gut. I could lie to you about this. I could claim that there are mechanical reasons that make him unlikely scum. There are. MagnaofIllusion has laid out a few. But the main reason I am not going after him is because I "think", with no reason attached, just think, he is town, and I fully realize he could be scum that I am just blindly townreading.

But I have also thought about it and looked at the reasons why I think that. His pushes simply don't seem to fit with a scum plan. Sure, he's a smart scum player. Sure, he's good enough to obfuscate the town insanity he displays when town. But is he THIS good at nailing it? No hint of some deeper posting. I've looked. Believe me I have. I don't see it, anywhere. I can't see anything other than the town stubbornness I know from him. I don't see any cheekiness. I don't see any manipulation. I don't see any sign of him having masterminded the game. I don't see anything from him so much as remotely suggesting he is scum with a plan. All I see is the crazy emu.

So that leaves grapes, and you.
Grapes, who has many reasons I feel is town.
And you, who I have many reasons I feel are scum.

Of course I see world where you're town.
And worlds where grapes is scum for that matter.
They are not the majority.

So I am pushing this.

Especially since my request isn't so unreasonable.
It's really painfully simple.

I'm not asking for your past agenda--regardless of your alignment, I don't give a damn about your past agenda. If scum that was just an act. If town, it's obsolete.

I asked for your current one. Assuming you were lynched today.
And you are refusing to honor that one. simple. request.

So damn straight I want you lynched over grapes. Because that play is more consistent with you as scum than you as town.

Presumably Grapes was informed of the benefit of allying with you, correct? So he told someone to hammer him and went through giving out instructions and telling the game that we and A50 are town and told the game how to proceed ... except he knew he wasn't going to actually be lynched and that was all a show.

I have thoughts on this.

They are not thoughts which should be posted at this time.

mastin2 · Thu Dec 22, 2016 12:32 pm

Like.
mastina is a creature born of paranoia and self-doubt. RR knows this. Both heads have seen it in countless games. This one among them. I doubt. I question everything. I will always, always find a way to second-guess my decisions.
I am deliberately shutting that part of me down.
In a conscious decision.

For better or for worse.
I am making the call that I will. not. budge. On my stance here.

I am not lynching grapes while RR is alive.

I make this choice because I feel it is the same weakness that Cephrir was able to exploit.
If I stick by my guns, even if I am wrong, then I have contributed to a push.
And here, there is a reasonable percentage--well above normal--that I am right.

So I'm not going to let myself back down. Normally I would. And obviously I'd back down if proven wrong. If RR was lynched and the game continued, there's all the proof I need I was wrong, so there's all the proof necessary to keep me from defending grapes.

Where I am coming from is basically this: I see great harm coming from me second-guessing myself and the second-guess to be wrong with the original being right.
I see zero harm coming from me standing my ground and then being proven wrong.

In short--if RR is scum, me backing down here is nothing but a bad thing.
If RR is town, me getting them lynched might not be the best of things...but I also see no harm coming from it.

Simple risk/reward, cost/benefit analysis.

I lose nothing but my pride if RR flips town. (Disagree? Tell me how I'm wrong then. Because yeah. I lose no real asset by being shown wrong.)
I lose my best and maybe only shot of winning the game if I back down from lynching a scum!RR today. (This is self-explanatory.)

mastin2 · Thu Dec 22, 2016 12:41 pm

Like.

How hard is it to accommodate a simple request?

If you truly believe. RR is town. Or in RR's case, if they truly ARE town. How hard is it to make a plan involving lynching them today?
How hard is it to create a situation where we have tomorrow to do what you want done today? Grapes is literally the ONLY possible way we have two scum alive, right? Is there anyone here who believes it's possible to have a second scum with neither of them being grapes? Anyone?
'Cause if not. This shit literally writes itself. Lynch RR. Game doesn't end? Lynch grapes tomorrow. grapes flips scum, game doesn't end? Still got one left. Grapes flips town? Still got one left. 4p mylo, and we determine from there who the last scum would be.

How hard is it to create a plan around that?

Now you might ask.
"Mastina, why doesn't that work the other way? What makes it so hard to lynch grapes today, and then RR tomorrow?"

For that...*points to literally the entire game thread*...I've been trying to get RR dead.

RR couldn't be lynched D1.
RR couldn't be lynched D2.
RR couldn't be vigged last night.
I'm having a fight of my life to get RR lynched today, and if it weren't for MY FUCKING POWER, then I'd have failed and we'd be in night already because RR would be alive and grapes would be dead.

Shiro is townreading RR.
randomidget is townreading RR.
Almost50 has stated he'd rather lose the game than lynch RR.
It'd take literally ALL of grapes/Fuzzy/MoI/myself to get RR to so much as L-1. Yet alone a lynch!
And even there! grapes has moved away from RR,

even though that's the only lynch which can save grapes

.
Fuzzy moved off of RR onto grapes and doesn't look interested in returning.
MoI has suspected RR the whole damn game but refuses to lynch him.

So damn right I'm demanding we do it this way around, not the other. Because the other way around, and RR never gets lynched.

mastin2 · Thu Dec 22, 2016 12:44 pm

Also:

Mod: V/LA from December 23rd through December 27th

.
Not that this should surprise anybody, given...yaknow.

mastin2 · Fri Dec 23, 2016 3:00 am

In post 11828, Reasonably Rational wrote:So what you're saying is that only your pride matters.

No, quite the opposite.
It is my willingness to throw my pride away which motivates my action.

Bravery isn't backing down.
Bravery isn't blindly charging in and assuming you cannot be wrong.
True bravery is defined by going in

knowing you could be wrong

, yet choosing to go in anyway.

If I am wrong, I suffer an immense blow to my pride: I knew it was possible to be wrong, yet I chose to pursue that path anyway.
If I back down, then my pride is preserved regardless of right or wrong. Backing down is the "cautious" thing to do here. It is the "safe" thing to do. So if it were wrong to back down, I couldn't be blamed for having done so, especially given the chance it would be right to have done so.
So if I were worried about my pride. I'd back down.

But I'm not.

My concern is in lynching scum.

And you've continued to deny my one. simple. request.

I didn't ask for much.
I asked for you to give a plan after your death.
Instead, you have continuously. tried. to. avert. it. You have continuously spent time and effort avoiding the noose, rather than solving the game. Your posting right now? Not solving the game. Making a blind appeal to not be lynched. That's what you're doing. And that's why the scumread remains.

You're the only one who is deliberately choosing to ignore all evidence that we're town and deliberately choosing to cherry pick and manipulate the FUCK out of all sorts of shit to try and say we're scum.

What

evidence that you're town?
I've asked this of many!
None have told me. None have pointed conclusively.
What have I gotten? "...Gut?"
That's literally the evidence presented for you being town. You are town because those players' guts say so.

And who's to say that you won't keep holding the game hostage to your whims after that?

This is yet another appeal to fear and also runs in stark contrast to what you KNOW my personality to be. When I make a promise, I keep it. Period. FURTHERMORE. It's known that I have a turbulent INFP personality type--and if you've done your homework on what INFPs are like, you know that what that essentially means is that when I give the mantra, "I need a plan", I'm not fucking joking. If I don't have a plan, I am directionless. You personally saw this on both the days we lynched kraska and Creature. There were shades of this on prior days (we're talking D3-D4 here) too. When I have a direction, I will stick to that direction.

Holding the game hostage is part of one current plan. It is part of that plan, and that plan ONLY. When that plan has concluded, then I will have no plan. Ergo, there will be no whims. There will be no holding the game hostage. There will be nothing. Because a mastina who has been wrong above all else? Is

terrified

beyond all reason of being wrong a second time in a row. It's one thing to make a push and have it be wrong--it's quite another to make TWO pushes and have both end up wrong. Especially in a conftown position, especially in a leadership position, this is something I would never allow.

You don't seem to understand the alliance system because if you submit nobody and Grapes is scum and submits you, he gets your protection.

...And? The problem with this is...what, exactly?

My ability does not work in mylo.
If tomorrow, with six alive, is mylo, we can lynch grapes. BAM. Grapes dies, we have confirmation that there's a second mafia and that grapes was scum. Nothing lost.
If tomorrow, with six alive, is not mylo, we cannot lynch grapes. BAM. grapes was either solo scum (the fifth of the ruby squad with a Lapis Lazuli fakeclaim), or isn't scum. While we wouldn't be able to lynch him, it wouldn't matter--we could do so in 4p mylo. Or 5p if there was a method to break my alliance with him.
Those are literally the only two possibilities.
-grapes is scum with someone else? We lynch him tomorrow because my ability won't fucking protect him if it's mylo.
-grapes is scum with nobody else? We can't lynch him tomorrow, but he can't win, either, because it wouldn't be mylo.
-grapes isn't town? We can't lynch him tomorrow, but we shouldn't be aiming to.

There are no other options on the table.

if there are 2 scum and the other is well enough hidden, your stunt will
literally cost us the game

One, see above--if there are two scum alive, tomorrow is mylo in which case...grapes can be fucking lynched because my fucking power, which I fucking know, doesn't fucking work in mylo. As I have been saying.
Two. Even if by some shenanigans it did--your point being? The other scum was well enough hidden. What's the difference between lynching the hidden scum in 6p mylo and lynching the hidden scum in 4p mylo? There literally isn't any. Either you find the hidden scum and win, or you don't find the hidden scum and lose. It doesn't matter which day it happens on.

Simple facts.

Also.
Tell me!
If grapes does in fact have a scumbuddy...
...Who is that scumbuddy?

Do tell.
You certainly have been silent on that front!

mastin2 · Fri Dec 23, 2016 3:09 am

In post 11831, Almost50 wrote:You have but only one vote and you should never try to force your view on the rest of us.

The funny thing is, I'm doing exactly that. I am using my only vote and not forcing my view on the rest of you.

It just so happens that you can't lynch grapes without my vote, though.
So the effect is the same.

I refuse to vote grapes.
I am not dictating RR's death. It is my vote. It is what I have said. I have said I will ally with grapes as long as RR lives. This I have said and done.
But I will not force it.

I'd vote either Fuzzy or yourself to avoid a no-lynch.
I would not fight against a wagon on Fuzzy or yourself, so that if you in fact got lynched I wouldn't care either way. If it happened, it happened, and was the choice of other players to happen. So that could happen. Fuzzy could die. You could die. It wouldn't be my preference. But it would be something I'd allow all the same.

So it's not like I'm running a complete dictatorship.
It's not like I'm giving absolutely zero wiggle room whatsoever.

I simply have made one choice: not to vote grapes.
I am sticking by that choice. And it doesn't matter if your choice runs counter to mine. If you refuse to vote anyone other than grapes. So be it. But know that doing so has its consequences, because by doing so you are reducing the chance of ANY lynch going through and 100% preventing the death of grapes. Because grapes lives as long as I do, unless I have reason to change my mind. So by lynching someone (or no lynching) that will not change my mind, you simply ensure grapes lives that much longer.

mastin2 · Fri Dec 23, 2016 3:12 am

In post 11832, Almost50 wrote:Picture this: I get a result that RR didn't act. Fuzzy shoots grapes. Shiro was bubbled. You and the Gems are confirmed. It virtually leaves no room to argue about farside eating rope, with myself and Fuzzy being the "back-up suspects" when she flips Town.

Which again runs into the problem of farside being fucking confirmed town and thus unlynchable. Meaning farside's out. You STILL have 7/8 alive. And you still have a suspect pool of RR/Fuzzy/Almost50

at largest

. Leading to a guaranteed town win.

Because farside was fucking unlynchable.

RR knew this.

mastin2 · Fri Dec 23, 2016 3:27 am

In post 11834, MagnaofIllusion wrote:while I was driving home and mulling over your recent posts my gut reaction to was immediately come into the thread with a "Fuck you and the horse you rode in on" vote for Fuzzy.

There is no "fuck you" which you can give, Magna.

No-lynch? grapes lives. Lynch Fuzzy? grapes lives. Lynch Almost50? grapes lives.
grapes lives no matter what I do, so long as I don't vote grapes.
Meaning, the one thing you want to deliver as a fuck-you, you can't. Any result which is not a grapes lynch, I am okay with.

I have my preference, of course. I would prefer we lynch RR.
RR's scum? Game ends, right then and there.
RR's town? We can put this shit to rest right here and now. We can put the whole damn issue to the side. You get me shutting up. You get my help, rather than my antagonism. I work with you, rather than against you.

So naturally, I would prefer RR's death.

But while that is my preference, it is not the only option. I am well aware of this.

You can't argue that scum is over-powered from what we know.

And you can't argue that scum are underpowered either. Scum have exactly the level of power I expect them to have. Not more, not less.

So the fact that you so easily dismiss that him being flipped to absolutely solidify 1 versus 2 scum is Pro Town because you have a bug up your ass to lynch RR makes me mad.

You also forget this simple fact.

Really.
Painfully.
Simple.

Thanks to my ability, we learn if it's one or two scum left automatically if my alliance holds. Because. Again. My power doesn't work in mylo. With two scum alive and 6 players, that's mylo. So my power not fucking working would confirm grapes is scum.

Do you get my stance now?

Lynching grapes today gives us nothing we won't learn tomorrow. Absolutely nothing. We AUTOMATICALLY learn if it is mylo or not, thanks to my ability. By proxy, we AUTOMATICALLY learn if there is one scum left or two. So the lynch on grapes for mechanical reasons to confirm one versus two is, as far as I'm concerned: utter shit.

So if you want to convince me on grapes, don't go citing mechanics. You better be giving me damn good reasons to change my mind off of PLAY.

And I have huge concerns that your "I'll sheep you tomorrow" is meaningless if I am not alive to be sheeped.

And what's so hard about laying out a plan today?

This is what I've been fucking asking for pages.
What's so hard about laying out a plan accounting for all the known variables and alignment possibilities today?
Sure you can't keep it a secret--everything you post, scum would know too. But at this stage any plan made shouldn't really need to be kept from the scum and any plan made shouldn't be such that scum could possibly interfere.

Next RR - here's the thing guys ... you have done yourself no favors since I replaced into this game. For every reason you give as to "Why I can't be scum" I can find a perfectly reasonable hole in those arguments. And on a gut level your reaction to me and my early suspicion of you specifically still I think smells of scum - you tried hard to sell me as OMGUSing and not being reasonable for suspecting you. Frankly it means you are more interested in staying alive than pushing for scum in ways that can be very useful but leave you open to being strung up if you are wrong. And instinctively it makes me want to vote you even if you are Town in hopes it will help grind that attitude out of you. So giving [HER] this lynch from a pool of possible scum isn't the end of the world.

^This is not everything, but it does encompass a large part of the reason why RR is my scumread.

mastin2 · Fri Dec 23, 2016 3:32 am

In post 11837, Almost50 wrote:the scum are given a 1-shot double kill for compensation. Game over!

One appeal to fear, banking on a theoretical unproven extra scum ability to kill.
Two, not possible because again.
My ability does not fucking work in mylo.
And it can be very visibly proven to not be mylo.

If scum have an extra kill, as you posit...then that extra kill pushes mylo to be a day earlier than it otherwise would be. (At least I'm almost positive of it. I'll need to confirm with Varsoon to put this theory to bed altogether.)

Which we can easily find out. By trying to lynch the player I'm in an alliance with. If it's mylo? They die. If it's not mylo? They live. That simple. So, extra kills? Not a problem. They won't be a threat.

mastin2 · Fri Dec 23, 2016 3:36 am

In post 11838, Almost50 wrote:@Mastina:
In post 11819, mastin2 wrote:My power doesn't work in lylo situations,
which includes mylo.
Is the bolded included in your PM or is it your own interpretation/understanding??

My initial PM said lylo, but I asked the mod if mylo was included. Varsoon said it EXPLICITLY is.

So to reiterate.

Absolutely. 100% clarity, certainty beyond all measure of doubt.

My power does not function in mylo.
It does not function in lylo.

If we were to run into either, then if I were in an alliance, we would know it was mylo/lylo because my fucking power wouldn't work.

Which is one reason why we know that grapes can live today. If today were mylo, he would be dead already because my power would not have saved him. In other words: there is NO situation where letting grapes live today causes a town loss. Absolutely none. It's impossible.

Which is why we can afford to humor me and lynch Reasonably Rational.

mastin2 · Sat Dec 24, 2016 9:45 pm

In post 11849, MagnaofIllusion wrote:I can settle for the minor version by not giving you what you want today if I wanted to be vindictive.

Which still serves to be part of my plan. Not my primary plan, mind you, but the backup plan. A non-RR lynch today allows us to test two scum alive tomorrow by attempting to lynch grapes--grapes dies, we had two scum alive; grapes lives, we do not.

But the basis for your “I am confident there is only one scum” seems to be some sort of power analysis. I don’t see why else you come to that conclusion even with your magical MYLO LYLO powers.

The basis for my analysis comes from a combination of SIMPLE SETUP DESIGN (running the numbers, that being, how many neutrals we have compared to town compared to scum), flavor speculation (there being five rubies plus an outside Jasper = five scum plus a traitor), and also, POE. What combination exists as a viable two-man scumteam? But yes, also mechanics analysis. Beyond setup design, mechanics design suggests only one scum left. Literally everything paints the picture of one scum left: flavor, general game design (would you, in ANY OTHER 25-PLAYER GAME, assume 7 scum?), mechanics, reads. Plus general gut. It "feels" right. It seems right. So I am assuming, until given evidence to the contrary, it is right.

The one hole in your logic that I see that I want you to absolutely check with Varsoon on – confirming you have to be alive for your MYLO / LYLO powers to work for your alliance member.

No need. I know this already. If a player dies during the night, alliances with them fail. You'll recall I allied with Not Chara and McMenno the nights they died. The following days, I did not have my alliance power active, so I know you can't ally with a nightkill. With a lynch, sure, yeah, your power will work if your ally was lynched. But given that I'm confirmed town, presumably, that won't be a problem. Soyeah. Killing me kills my alliance, meaning I MUST live to use it.

Because an easy way to blow a hole in the scenarios I’ve run if for you to die tonight and thus not being able to confirm grapes tomorrow via MYLO / LYLO.

Then you manually lynch grapes anyway and you'll have your answer upon grapes's flip.

We (attempt to) lynch grapes no matter the outcome of today, if the game has a tomorrow. I figured that was a given. Am I wrong? 'Cause I'm pretty sure you said it yourself: the only way for there to be two scum is if grapes is among them. So if tomorrow is mylo, we lynch grapes and know there was a second scum. If I die, you...lynch grapes, and grapes's flip will tell you whether there were one or two scum remaining. The game continuing tells you that there's at least one.

I'm pretty sure there's no glaring hole in this.

mastin2 · Sat Dec 24, 2016 10:00 pm

In post 11851, Reasonably Rational wrote:We have zero interest in humiliating you, but if you push us to it, I'm sure I can get Cerb to set aside some time if I go through your entire ISO today and pull out every point and lay it out point by point to be deconstructed.

Yeah that's the thing though.

You've been doing nothing but this already.
You've been throwing insult after insult my way.
You did so in this very fucking post in the paragraph above which I deleted.
Time and time again, you're forming excuses. You're shutting me down. And you're avoiding the question I asked for. I specifically told you not to post obsolete game solving. You did so anyway. I asked for a comprehensive plan from you after your "mis"lynch, to deal with every variable, something you should specialize.
And your attempts to shut this request down by pointing out that I have no plan are another dodge of exactly that.

I am not you.
It makes sense for me to not have a perfect plan. I have one plan, and one plan only. I don't know what to do when my one plan goes wrong.
But YOU are defined by making plans. You SHOULD be able to honor that simple request, and have it be a fucking simple request.

Yet instead of spending a small morsel of your time and effort to leave something after you die. Instead of trying to create a lockdown after you have been removed from the game.
You keep on spending time and effort trying to survive. To shut me down. To get people to not vote you.

You are showing survivalism, rather than showing interest in leaving a legacy after you die. You are attempting to stop your death, rather than attempting to win the game. Simple "lynch in this order" doesn't cut it, especially given that it could potentially be impossible to lynch grapes tomorrow if tomorrow isn't mylo and I live and my alliance with grapes is not broken. I asked for a comprehensive plan. Not a single line easily open to interpretation.

Your whole post here. The whole fucking thing. Is saying, "we are here to show why we should not be lynched". Not showing "we are here to show what the possible paths to victory are". And including in those paths your lynch. Sure, you could give paths to victory which don't involve your death today...but you haven't done even that much! None of it.

You bitch and moan. You say you have done these grand, wondrous things. Yet you aren't actually DOING those grand, wondrous things. You say you've gamesolved. I don't even want at this point proof from you of having done it in the past. (Even though I would like to point out it doesn't exist out in the open.) I want it shown from you RIGHT IN THE FUCKING NOW, and in spite of my CONTINUED requests to show this...you have not.

And that's why you are scum.

mastin2 · Tue Dec 27, 2016 1:44 pm

In post 11856, MagnaofIllusion wrote:Well you are wrong Mastin in that not lynching grapes today as Town turns a sure win into a 50 50 LYLO. Don't see that? Redo your analysis then.

There are, if two scum, five candidates for it: Almost50, Reasonably Rational, grapes (guaranteed to be one if there are two left), Shiro, and Thefuzzylogic.
No matter what, there isn't a surefire win. RR ensured that when the shot was directed towards farside instead of within this grouping.

So from there, we have to work on assumptions.
We are both fine assuming that no matter what, Almost50 is town--correct me if I am wrong there. So we are willing to gamble the game on him being town. But it IS exactly that: a gamble, not a given.

That still leaves four names, for three days.
You are fine clearing RR if grapes is scum--I, however, am not convinced of this. A townflip from grapes will ensure Shiro is town, giving us a lockdown IF we can guarantee Almost50 lives and we are both okay with the assumption he is town: lynch RR/Fuzzy, then the other.
A scumflip from grapes, however, gives us three candidates for two lynches. You remove RR from the pool. I vehemently disagree with that conclusion. It remains completely unsafe to make that assumption. It is also predicated on a scenario I don't see as likely. (That being, grapes flipping scum, but I'll go on about that in a bit.)

But. Agreeing to disagree here, for the sake of argument. Say you don't give a damn about my stance on RR, I die, you don't, so you get the final word on the lynches. There's nothing stopping you from lynching Fuzzy today, and testing for lylo tomorrow if you're so concerned about that win. When I die, then you can lynch grapes, and if grapes flips scum, then you can lynch Shiro too. No problems at all. Like I said, I am not demanding RR's death today. Simply...strongly recommending it.

As for why I don't think it's grapes.
If grapes is the last scum, then grapes is Army, NOT Lapis Lazuli. Lapis Lazuli would in fact be grapes's safeclaim. And that's a pretty shitty safeclaim. Why? Because of exactly why you want to lynch grapes in the first place--third party speculation, because surely if anyone fits the bill for third party it would be Lapis Lazuli! So from where I stand, if the setup has only one scum left, it CANNOT be grapes.

I also don't buy the bullshit of grapes being a second scum. And I'll tell you why. Because I'm sick and tired of all the bullshit violations of occam's razor. Assuming two scum left is assuming there is an unknown variable to "justify" making sub-optimal plays on the account of paranoia. When we have going for us:
-STRONG flavor reasons to believe only one scum left
-STRONG balance reasons to believe only one scum left
-STRONG mechanical reasons to believe only one scum left
-And decent play reasons to believe only one scum left.

For that reason, I am willing to risk the game on grapes not being scum. You are not, sure, fine. But as long as I live, I am.
I am of course willing to humor you--to test the theory of two scum tomorrow, via the usage of my ability. Grapes dies, there were two scum; grapes lives, there is only one. But at this point...
-Unless two scum is proven, I am NOT lynching Shiro.
-Unless there are two scum, I am NOT lynching grapes.
-I am willing to risk the game on Almost50 being town if you are.
-So that leaves me with Thefuzzylogic and Reasonably Rational as possibilities for scum, barring other evidence.

mastin2 · Tue Dec 27, 2016 1:50 pm

In post 11857, Reasonably Rational wrote:Did you read my last post? That is, the last post from Cerb?

Oh you mean this?

In post 11848, Reasonably Rational wrote:To answer you about your insistence that we lay out a plan for the future(when you yourself HAVE NO SUCH FUCKING PLAN(which is primarily relevant in that this is essentially the same plea being made by you, that is "listen to us today because this is absolutely what we feel is the path most likely to lead to victory, and if we're wrong we have no idea how we should proceed"):
This is what we told A50 and TFL last night, and this is where we're at, because there is compelling evidence against any of A50, Shiro, and TFL as scum(while NO SUCH EVIDENCE EXISTS FOR grapes!town)
[-snip-]
In order of "strength of evidence indicating they are not scum": mastin>gems>A50=Shiro>TFL>grapes. In other words, you lynch in the reverse of this order.
It's arguable that Shiro should be lower, primarily because the bubbling clear is conditional on only one scum existing, and the other reasons to believe him to be town rely upon him actually keeping up with a PT between Titus and us, which is far from guaranteed; however, the simple fact that shiro currently possesses a "if we get to 4 left alive without having lynched any more scum and the game is still going, shiro is definitely town" ability means coupled with the other reasons to posit him as town, he should be far from a potential lynchee.

Yeah, I explicitly reference this.

In post 11855, mastin2 wrote:
I specifically told you not to post obsolete game solving
. You did so anyway. I asked for a comprehensive plan from you after your "mis"lynch, to deal with every variable, something you should specialize.
And your attempts to shut this request down by pointing out that I have no plan are another dodge of exactly that.

You are showing survivalism, rather than showing interest in leaving a legacy after you die. You are attempting to stop your death, rather than attempting to win the game.
Simple "lynch in this order" doesn't cut it
, especially given that it could potentially be impossible to lynch grapes tomorrow if tomorrow isn't mylo and I live and my alliance with grapes is not broken. I asked for a comprehensive plan.
Not a single line easily open to interpretation.

I asked for gamesolving and CURRENT ANALYSIS. Not for you to fucking quote obsolete thoughts from yesterday and a single line which really doesn't cut it for plans.

I've seen you lay out your plans before. You write big-ass huge long paragraphs detailing each aspect of the plan and why it is the right course of action. A single line (with barely a paragraph of clarification) is nothing of the sort.

mastin2 · Tue Dec 27, 2016 2:01 pm

In post 11860, grapes wrote:Sabotaging what would have been an auto-win.

The thing is.
And this is the big fucking thing.
You need no other point about Reasonably Rational.
This, and this alone, are reason enough for them to be scum.
They have tried making excuse after excuse, justification after justification for it.
They have let the blame be shift off of them, via Fuzzy and Almost50.
They have insisted that they weren't responsible, that it was Fuzzy's shot, that they weren't the ones which did it.

But the simple fact is.
They did exactly that: sabotage what would have been an auto-win.

And their excuse? Setup speculation--something they specialize at--which was proven

wrong

. Time and time again. They insisted that farside was a liar...except, everything she claimed was 100% entirely true. They claimed farside was a threat. Yet, she absolutely was not. They directed a shot at farside, who scum COULD NOT GET RID OF, and kept the shot from landing on someone the town needed gone.

If I had no other reason to lynch RR.
That reason alone would justify it.

Because them sabotaging an auto-win is SO out of character for their towngame, I cannot, fundamentally

cannot

accept that it is possible they would act in suck a reckless, selfish egocentric way which runs counter to the very foundation of their principles.

Also would just like to point out: this grapes post is absolutely the last thing grapes would do if grapes were scum. It is literally alienating the rest of the town and going down a path, a battle, a fight which CANNOT be won. Because while grapes has my support to not lynch him, grapes will NEVER get my support to lynch either of Almost50 or Shiro. This is town crazy. It's crazy, yes. But it is town crazy all the same.

mastin2 · Tue Dec 27, 2016 2:06 pm

In post 11863, TheFuzzylogic99 wrote:1) I did not kill Shadow bc RR had a plan and for some reason I went along with it.

Gee I wonder who that plan benefited?

OH YEAH.

mastin2 · Tue Dec 27, 2016 2:28 pm

Like.
Shit you not.
Before logging in and reading, my thoughts were devoted to thinking about how many ways I could be wrong.
I was wavering back and forth, thinking about every which variable here and there and just how much I could be mistaken about it all.

And then I actually read the damn thread.
And all that doubt, all that paranoia, vanished in mere seconds.

There's more to grapes's post than the actions within. There's also how grapes was addressing people and talking to them and trying to make the push. It wasn't just a blind case. It wasn't a presentation. It wasn't an appeal for survival. It wasn't effort for the sake of survivalism. (For that, see: RR's posting.) It wasn't effort done with the confidence of knowing that he won't die, either. It was not fluff, posting for the sake of posting. There was real thought put in. There were some real things in there, real analysis, and it simply is NOT something I see coming from scum. Not like that.

Almost50, I've seen him as scum and I've seen him as town. I'm basically convinced this is his town game. I really, really don't think Almost50 goes about posting as he has if he is scum. The way he invited his own death was incredibly sincere, in contrast with RR's way which was false bravado. He leaks genuine emotion. His posting is a pain in the ass to deal with. It'd be tempting to, in my frustration, write him off as scum because of it, hiding behind his pride (and yes that's the main thing driving him). Yet if farside has taught us one thing, it is to NOT do that, to NOT assume stubbornness is synonymous with scumminess. So I remain resolute: I will risk the game on him being town.

Fuzzy also sounds genuine. I see a post like 11863, and I cannot see scum in it. No matter how I read it, all I see is town. I see the thoughts behind him. I see his motivation as town. I see what guides his actions, as town. I read into it a town tone. I understand what Fuzzy has done. I see it. I comprehend it. I may not agree with all of his actions, but when witnessing them, I don't see scum behind what he has done. He's not a moron, sure. He's smart enough. He can obfuscate stupidity as scum easily. But in his actions, I don't see the scum player making moves. I see in him sincerity.

Shiro's not even worth considering if there's not two scum left.

So that really does just leave Reasonably Rational. Even if POE didn't point me this way, attitude would. Fuzzy's posts aren't trying to survive. grapes's posting isn't trying to survive. Almost50's posting isn't trying to survive. Reasonably Rational's posting...is. The only time they have shown so much of a HINT of antisurvivalism is in private topics (again, easily manipulated), where they had an agenda: "Shoot farside, we beg you. And if you have doubts, shoot us instead! (But really, shoot farside. Seriously, just shoot her.)"

Their posting today has been focused, ENTIRELY, on "we shouldn't be lynched today!" "mastina, stop trying to lynch us!" "mastina is wrong, so don't lynch us", and the like. They aren't scumhunting. They aren't focused on solving the game. They're focused on writing excuses. They're focused for justifying past plays, not on present or future plays. If RR were town, they wouldn't need to focus on their past. They know they are town and that they have the interests of the town at heart, so they should be focusing on the present and the future.

Yet the RR of this game has done nothing BUT focus on the past. As early as day fucking two, they were doing this: explaining what they have done. Showing off their "wondrous" accomplishments. Providing "proof" that surely, thanks to their magnificence, their masterful contributions, they could not be scum.

The difference between the players is literally night and day.

Swear to god.
The game will end on a Reasonably Rational lynch.

All this pain, all this effort, to go elsewhere, to think of other things? Sure, nice formality you've got there. I acknowledge it as a necessity and am myself engaging in it.
But it's really not actually useful, because it really will just end with RR's death. There will be no night nine. There will be no episode 10. There will just be, at long last, after 475 pages and counting, a "Game Over" message displayed on top.

I'm asking for people to trust me one last time on this.

mastin2 · Tue Dec 27, 2016 2:34 pm

Also, I'd just like to say:
When RR keeps on posting about, "mastina, do you think the game is REALLY balanced, with all of these players who can be confirmed town and cannot be lynched?", all I can really see that as is scumplaining and ranting about how much in the game is working against them and how they feel they were fucked over by the setup and some bad luck. (For instance, my scan on TheWayItEnds was a game-changer. Zero suspicion prior to that, and suddenly one of scum's lategame--possibly even endgame--players was on borrowed time. There were half a dozen people I could have wasted my power on, namely, players like Creature, kraska, and SnarkySnowman, and by all accounts that's the type of player I should have scanned, yet I ended up scanning a nobody, TWIE, and was in disbelief of my own result.)

Like. Literally every post they have done to that. I can see as being ALMOST directly copy-pasted from the scum PT (or maybe hydra PT), into the thread, but changed from being a rant against Varsoon to a question posed to me.

mastin2 · Tue Dec 27, 2016 2:37 pm

(Mind you...I have in fact seen their scumplaining ranting. I seem to recall some in SC's game, and they certainly had a fair share in Gistou, albeit posthumously, so it'd be multiple times. And I'm telling you, their posting here feels like their scumplaining ranting. It does not feel like gamesolving. It does not feel like gamebreaking off of mechanics. It feels like complaining, as scum, about all the things which have fucked the scum over.)

mastin2 · Tue Dec 27, 2016 6:04 pm

New color scheme: orange = topvoter mastina; cyan = topvoter Titus; yellow = not a topvoter; red = scum; crimson = traitor; green = town.

In post 875, Varsoon wrote:
Reasonably Rational
(3):

grapes
,
Firebringer, McMenno

Creature (2):
Obi-Wan Kenobi, Xkfyu

Not Chara (2):
mastin2, Yume

Obi-Wan Kenobi (1):
Farside22

Farside22 (1):
SnarkySnowman

McMenno (1):
CooLDoG

Not Voting (15):

Klingoncelt
,
SirCakez, Foxbird, Skybird
,
Almost50
,
Shiro
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Reasonably Rational
,
Not Chara, Kraskaeaque, killthestory
,
Seraphim
,
Creature, randomidget
,
TheWayItEnds

In post 925, Varsoon wrote:
Not Chara (4):
mastin2, Yume, Obi-Wan Kenobi
,
Almost50

Reasonably Rational (3):

grapes
,
Firebringer, McMenno

Obi-Wan Kenobi (2):
Farside22, Not Chara

Creature (1):
Xkfyu

Farside22 (1):
SnarkySnowman

McMenno (1):
CooLDoG

Not Voting (13):
Klingoncelt
,
SirCakez, Foxbird, Skybird
,
Shiro
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Reasonably Rational
,
Kraskaeaque, killthestory
,
Seraphim
,
Creature, randomidget
,
TheWayItEnds

In post 1000, Varsoon wrote:
Not Chara (4):
mastin2, Yume, Obi-Wan Kenobi
,
Almost50

Reasonably Rational (3):

grapes
,
Firebringer, McMenno

Obi-Wan Kenobi (2):
Not Chara
,
SirCakez

SirCakez (2):

SnarkySnowman, Creature

Creature (1):
Xkfyu

McMenno (1):
CooLDoG

TheWayItEnds (1):

Seraphim

Seraphim (1):

Farside22

Not Voting (10):
Klingoncelt
,
Foxbird, Skybird
,
Shiro
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Reasonably Rational
,
Kraskaeaque, killthestory, randomidget
,
TheWayItEnds

^Just want to make a note: this would be a fine time to check out Seraphim's iso. For instance, would this be a bus, or not? It's impossible to tell from VCA alone, but context will help.

In post 1375, Varsoon wrote:
Not Chara (5):
mastin2, Yume, Obi-Wan Kenobi
,
Almost50
,
grapes

Reasonably Rational (3):

Firebringer, McMenno
,
DrippingGoofball

Obi-Wan Kenobi (1):

SirCakez

SirCakez (2):

Creature, Farside22

Creature (1):
Xkfyu

McMenno (1):
CooLDoG

Xkfyu (1):

Seraphim

Farside22 (1):
SnarkySnowman

grapes (1):

Not Chara

Not Voting (9):
Klingoncelt
,
Foxbird, Skybird
,
Shiro
,
Reasonably Rational
,
Kraskaeaque, killthestory, randomidget
,
TheWayItEnds

In post 1701, Varsoon wrote:
McMenno (5):
CooLDoG, Firebringer
,
SirCakez
,
Seraphim
,
Almost50

Not Chara (4):

grapes
,
Skybird
,
Yume, Obi-Wan Kenobi

Reasonably Rational (3):

McMenno
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Creature

SirCakez (2):

Not Chara, mastin2

Creature (1):
Xkfyu

Farside22 (1):
SnarkySnowman

Not Voting (9):
Klingoncelt
,
Foxbird
,
Shiro
,
Reasonably Rational
,
Kraskaeaque, killthestory, randomidget
,
TheWayItEnds
,
Farside22

In post 1775, Varsoon wrote:
Reasonably Rational (5):

McMenno
,
DrippingGoofball
,
mastin2, Creature, Firebringer

McMenno (4):
CooLDoG
,
SirCakez
,
Seraphim
,
Almost50

Not Chara (4):

grapes
,
Skybird
,
Yume, Obi-Wan Kenobi

SirCakez (1):

Not Chara

Creature (1):
Xkfyu

Farside22 (1):
SnarkySnowman

Not Voting (9):
Klingoncelt
,
Foxbird
,
Shiro
,
Reasonably Rational
,
Kraskaeaque, killthestory, randomidget
,
TheWayItEnds
,
Farside22

In post 2000, Varsoon wrote:
Not Chara (6):

grapes
,
Skybirdx2
,
Yume
,
Almost50
,
Kraskaeaque

Reasonably Rational (4):

McMenno
,
DrippingGoofball
,
mastin2, Farside22

McMenno (3):
CooLDoG
,
SirCakez
,
Seraphim

Klingoncelt (2):
Firebringer, Obi-Wan Kenobi

Almost50 (2):

Shiro
,
Creature

SirCakez (1):

Not Chara

Creature (1):
Xkfyu

Farside22 (1):
SnarkySnowman

Not Voting (6):
Klingoncelt
,
Foxbird
,
Reasonably Rational
,
killthestory, randomidget
,
TheWayItEnds

In post 2200, Varsoon wrote:
SirCakez (5):

Not Chara, Yume, mastin2, Obi-Wan Kenobi, McMenno

Not Chara (3):

grapes
,
Skybird
,
Kraskaeaque

Reasonably Rational (3):

DrippingGoofball
,
Farside22, Firebringer

McMenno (3):
CooLDoG
,
SirCakez
,
Seraphim

Almost50 (2):

Shiro
,
Creature

Creature (2):
Xkfyu
,
Almost50

Farside22 (1):
SnarkySnowman

Not Voting (6):
Klingoncelt
,
Foxbird
,
Reasonably Rational
,
killthestory, randomidget
,
TheWayItEnds

In post 2275, Varsoon wrote:
SirCakez (5):

Not Chara, Yume, mastin2, Obi-Wan Kenobi, McMenno

McMenno (3):
CooLDoG
,
SirCakez
,
Seraphim

Not Chara (2):

grapes
,
Kraskaeaque

Reasonably Rational (2):

DrippingGoofball
,
Firebringer

Almost50 (2):

Shiro
,
Creature

Creature (2):
Xkfyu
,
Almost50

Shiro (2):

Farside22
,
Skybird

Farside22 (1):
SnarkySnowman

Not Voting (6):
Klingoncelt
,
Foxbird
,
Reasonably Rational
,
killthestory, randomidget
,
TheWayItEnds

In post 2525, Varsoon wrote:
SirCakez (7):

Not Chara, mastin2, Obi-Wan Kenobi, McMenno, Yume
,
grapes
,
Shiro

Shiro (4):

Farside22
,
Skybirdx2
,
Almost50

Skybird (2):

killthestory, Creature

McMenno (2):
CooLDoG
,
Seraphim

Not Chara (1):
Kraskaeaque

Creature (1):
Xkfyu

Obi-Wan Kenobi (1):

SirCakez

Klingoncelt (1)
Firebringer

Farside22 (1):
SnarkySnowman

Not Voting (6):
Klingoncelt
,
Foxbird
,
Reasonably Rational
,
randomidget
,
TheWayItEnds
,
DrippingGoofball

In post 2725, Varsoon wrote:
SirCakez (10):

Not Chara, mastin2, Obi-Wan Kenobi, McMenno, Yume
,
grapes
,
Shiro
,
Firebringer
,
Reasonably Rational
,
SnarkySnowman

Shiro (4):

Farside22
,
Skybirdx2
,
Almost50

Firebringer (2):
Klingoncelt

McMenno (2):
CooLDoG
,
Seraphim

Skybird (1):

Creature

Not Chara (1):
Kraskaeaque

Creature (1):
Xkfyu

Obi-Wan Kenobi (1):

SirCakez

Farside22 (1):
killthestory

Not Voting (4):

Foxbird
,
randomidget
,
TheWayItEnds
,
DrippingGoofball

In post 3161, Varsoon wrote:
SirCakez (10):

Not Chara, mastin2, Obi-Wan Kenobi, McMenno
,
grapes
,
Shiro
,
Xkfyu, SnarkySnowman, Yume, Kraskaeaque

Farside22 (3):
killthestory, Firebringer
,
Almost50

Shiro (2):

Farside22
,
Skybird

Firebringer (2):
Klingoncelt

McMenno (2):
CooLDoG
,
Thefuzzylogic99

Obi-Wan Kenobi (1):

SirCakez

Not Voting (6):
Foxbird
,
randomidget
,
TheWayItEnds
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Creature
,
Reasonably Rational

In post 3223, Varsoon wrote:
SirCakez (LYNCH):

Not Chara, mastin2, Obi-Wan Kenobi, McMenno
,
grapes
,
Shiro
,
Xkfyu, SnarkySnowman, Yume, Kraskaeaque, Klingoncelt
,
Reasonably Rational

Farside22 (3):
killthestory, Firebringer
,
Almost50

Shiro (2):

Farside22
,
Skybird

McMenno (2):
CooLDoG
,
Thefuzzylogic99

Obi-Wan Kenobi (1):

SirCakez

Not Voting (5):
Foxbird
,
randomidget
,
TheWayItEnds
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Creature

In post 3325, Varsoon wrote:
Reasonably Rational (6):

grapes
,
DrippingGoofball
,
McMenno, Yume, Creature, mastin2

Foxbird (1):

Kraskaeaque

Not Voting (16):
Obi-Wan Kenobi, Klingoncelt
,
Foxbird
,
Xkfyu
,
Skybird
,
Almost50
,
Shiro
,
Farside22, CooLDoG
,
Reasonably Rational
,
Not Chara, killthestory
,
TheFuzzylogic99
,
SnarkySnowman, randomidget
,
TheWayItEnds

In post 3625, Varsoon wrote:
Reasonably Rational (6):

grapes
,
DrippingGoofball
,
McMenno, Yume, mastin2
,
Skybird

Shiro (2):

Creature, Farside22

Farside22 (2):
randomidget, Obi-Wan Kenobi

DrippingGoofball (1):

Klingoncelt

Twin Wings (1):

Kraskaeaque

Not Voting (11):

Twin Wings
,
Xkfyu
,
Almost50
,
Shiro
,
CooLDoG
,
Reasonably Rational
,
Not Chara, killthestory
,
TheFuzzylogic99
,
SnarkySnowman
,
TheWayItEnds

In post 3950, Varsoon wrote:
Reasonably Rational (5):

grapes
,
DrippingGoofball
,
McMenno, Yume
,
Skybird

CooLDoG (3):
mastin2, Obi-Wan Kenobi
,
Almost50

Shiro (2):

Creature, Farside22

Obi-Wan Kenobi (1):

TheFuzzylogic99

Farside22 (1):
randomidget

DrippingGoofball (1):

Klingoncelt

Twin Wings (1):

Kraskaeaque

Not Voting (9):

Twin Wings
,
Xkfyu
,
Shiro
,
CooLDoG
,
Reasonably Rational
,
Not Chara, killthestory, SnarkySnowman
,
TheWayItEnds

In post 4050, Varsoon wrote:
Reasonably Rational (3):

grapes
,
DrippingGoofball
,
McMenno

CooLDoG (3):
mastin2, Titus
,
Almost50

Shiro (2):

Creature, Farside22

DrippingGoofball (2):

Klingoncelt, Yume

Titus (1):

TheFuzzylogic99

Farside22 (1):
randomidget

Twin Wings (1):

Kraskaeaque

Not Voting (10):

Twin Wings
,
Xkfyu
,
Shiro
,
CooLDoG
,
Reasonably Rational
,
Not Chara, killthestory, SnarkySnowman
,
TheWayItEnds, Skybird

In post 4100, Varsoon wrote:
Loopdan (4):
mastin2, Titus
,
Almost50
,
Shiro

Reasonably Rational (3):

grapes
,
DrippingGoofball
,
McMenno

Shiro (2):

Creature, Farside22

DrippingGoofball (2):

Klingoncelt, Yume

Titus (1):

TheFuzzylogic99

Farside22 (1):
randomidget

Twin Wings (1):

Kraskaeaque

Not Voting (9):

Twin Wings
,
Xkfyu, Loopdan
,
Reasonably Rational
,
Not Chara, killthestory, SnarkySnowman
,
TheWayItEnds, Skybird

In post 4450, Varsoon wrote:
Loopdan (6):
mastin2, Titus
,
Almost50
,
Shiro
,
Xkfyu, Not Chara

Reasonably Rational (3):

grapes
,
DrippingGoofball
,
McMenno

Shiro (2):

Creature, Farside22

DrippingGoofball (2):

Klingoncelt, Yume

Farside22 (1):
randomidget

Twin Wings (1):

Kraskaeaque

grapes (1):

killthestory

Not Voting (7):

Twin Wings
,
Loopdan
,
Reasonably Rational
,
SnarkySnowman
,
TheWayItEnds, Skybird
,
TheFuzzylogic99

In post 4550, Varsoon wrote:
Mathblade (7):
mastin2, Titus
,
Almost50
,
Shiro
,
Xkfyu, Not Chara
,
grapes

Reasonably Rational (2):

DrippingGoofball
,
McMenno

Shiro (2):

Creature, Farside22

DrippingGoofball (2):

Klingoncelt, Yume

Farside22 (1):
randomidget

Twin Wings (1):

Kraskaeaque

grapes (1):

killthestory

Xkfyu (1):

Skybird

Not Voting (6):
Twin Wings
,
Mathblade
,
Reasonably Rational
,
SnarkySnowman
,
TheWayItEnds
,
TheFuzzylogic99

In post 4700, Varsoon wrote:
Mathblade (9):
mastin2, Titus
,
Almost50
,
Shiro
,
Xkfyu, Not Chara
,
grapes
,
McMenno, SnarkySnowman

Shiro (2):

Creature, Farside22

DrippingGoofball (2):

Klingoncelt, Yume

Reasonably Rational (1):

DrippingGoofball

Farside22 (1):
randomidget

Twin Wings (1):

Kraskaeaque

grapes (1):

killthestory

Xkfyu (1):

Skybird

Not Voting (5):
Twin Wings
,
Mathblade
,
Reasonably Rational
,
TheWayItEnds
,
TheFuzzylogic99

In post 5125, Varsoon wrote:
Mathblade (10):
mastin2, Titus
,
Almost50
,
Shiro
,
Xkfyu
,
grapes
,
McMenno, SnarkySnowman
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Yume

DrippingGoofball (3):

Klingoncelt, Farside22, Not Chara

Shiro (2):

Creature, Mathblade

Farside22 (1):
randomidget

Shadow_Step (1):

Kraskaeaque

grapes (1):

killthestory

Xkfyu (1):

Skybird

Not Voting (4):
Shadow_Step
,
Reasonably Rational
,
TheWayItEnds
,
TheFuzzylogic99

In post 5625, Varsoon wrote:
Mathblade (8):
mastin2
,
Almost50
,
Shiro
,
Xkfyu, McMenno
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Yume, Titus

DrippingGoofball (4):

Klingoncelt, Not Chara, Firebringer, SnarkySnowman

Shiro (2):

Mathblade, Farside22

Shadow_Step (2):

Kraskaeaque, Creature

Farside22 (1):
randomidget

grapes (1):

killthestory

Xkfyu (1):

Skybird

Kraskaeaque (1):

grapes

Creature (1):

Shadow_Step

Not Voting (3):

Reasonably Rational
,
TheWayItEnds
,
TheFuzzylogic99

In post 6050, Varsoon wrote:
Mathblade (8):
mastin2
,
Almost50
,
Xkfyu, McMenno
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Yume, Titus, Creature

DrippingGoofball (6):

Klingoncelt, Not Chara, Firebringer, SnarkySnowman
,
Shiro
,
Mathblade

Shiro (1):

Farside22

Shadow_Step (1):

Kraskaeaque

Farside22 (1):
randomidget

[cplor=cyan]
grapes (1):
[/color]
killthestory

Xkfyu (1):

Skybird

Kraskaeaque (1):

grapes

TheFuzzyLogic99 (1):

Shadow_Step

Not Voting (3):

Reasonably Rational
,
TheWayItEnds
,
TheFuzzylogic99

In post 6318, Varsoon wrote:
Mathblade LYNCH):
mastin2
,
Almost50
,
Xkfyu, McMenno
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Yume, Titus, Creature, Farside22, Not Chara
,
grapes
,
Mathblade, Firebringer

DrippingGoofball (3):

Klingoncelt, SnarkySnowman
,
Shiro

Shadow_Step (1):

Kraskaeaque

Farside22 (1):
randomidget

grapes (1):

killthestory

Xkfyu (1):

Skybird

TheFuzzyLogic99 (1):

Shadow_Step

Not Voting (3):

Reasonably Rational
,
TheWayItEnds
,
TheFuzzylogic99

In post 7300, Varsoon wrote:
Farside22 (7)
Titus, SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion
,
TheWayItEnds
,
grapes
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Creature

DrippingGoofball (3):

Shiro, Thefuzzylogic99
,
Not Chara

Shadow_Step (3):

Kraskaeaque, Firebringer, McMenno

Skybird (1):

Farside22

Firebringer (1):
Yume

Not Voting (7):

Shadow_Step
,
Xkfyu
,
Skybird
,
Almost50, Reasonably Rational
,
mastin2, randomidget

In post 7576, Varsoon wrote:
Farside22 (9):
Titus, SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion
,
TheWayItEnds
,
grapes
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Skybird
,
Yume, Xkfyu

DrippingGoofball (6):

Shiro, Thefuzzylogic99
,
Not Chara, McMenno, Creature, Farside22

Shadow_Step (2):

Kraskaeaque, Firebringer

Creature (1):

Almost50

Xkfyu (1):

Shadow_Step

Not Voting (3):

Reasonably Rational
,
mastin2, randomidget

In post 7812, Varsoon wrote:
Farside22 (8):
Titus, SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion
,
TheWayItEnds
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Skybird
,
Yume, Xkfyu

DrippingGoofball (6):

Shiro, Thefuzzylogic99
,
Not Chara, McMenno, Creature, Farside22

Kraskaesque (3):
mastin2
,
grapes
,
Shadow_Step

Shadow_Step (2):

Kraskaeaque, Firebringer

Creature (1):

Almost50

Not Voting (2):
Reasonably Rational
,
randomidget

In post 8089, Varsoon wrote:
Farside22 (LYNCH?):
Titus, SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion
,
TheWayItEnds
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Skybird
,
Yume, Xkfyu, Not Chara, McMenno, Kraskaeaque
,
Almost50

DrippingGoofball (3):

Shiro, Thefuzzylogic99
,
Creature

SnarkySnowman (3):
mastin2
,
grapes
,
Farside22

Kraskaesque (1):

Shadow_Step

Shadow_Step (1):

Firebringer

Not Voting (2):

Reasonably Rational
,
randomidget

In post 8412, Varsoon wrote:
SnarkySnowman (7):
McMenno, Farside22, Titus, Not Chara
,
grapes
,
mastin2
,
TheWayItEnds

DrippingGoofball (4):

Thefuzzylogic99
,
SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion, Creature

Farside22 (1):

Almost50

Not Voting (9):

Shadow_Step
,
Xkfyu
,
Skybird
,
Shiro
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Reasonably Rational
,
Kraskaeaque, Firebringer, randomidget

In post 8587, Varsoon wrote:
DrippingGoofball (LYNCH):

Thefuzzylogic99
,
SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion, Creature, Titus
,
Shiro
,
Firebringer
,
grapes
,
McMenno, Farside22, Not Chara

SnarkySnowman (2):
mastin2
,
TheWayItEnds

Farside22 (1):

Almost50

Shadow_Step (1):

Kraskaeaque

Not Voting (5):

Shadow_Step
,
Xkfyu
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Reasonably Rational
,
randomidget

In post 8934, Varsoon wrote:
TheWayItEnds (3):

Farside22, Creature, McMenno

Shadow_Step (1):

Almost50

Thefuzzylogic99 (1):

Shadow_Step

Not Voting (12):

Titus, Xkfyu
,
Shiro
,
Reasonably Rational
,
grapes
,
mastin2, Kraskaeaque, MagnaofIllusion
,
Thefuzzylogic99
,
SnarkySnowman, randomidget
,
TheWayItEnds

In post 9650, Varsoon wrote:
TheWayItEnds (3):

Farside22, Kraskaeaque, mastin2

Farside22 (2):

ReasonablyRational, Almost50

Creature (1):
MagnaofIllusion

TheFuzzyLogic99 (1):

Shadow_Step

Not Voting (6):

Shiro
,
grapes
,
Thefuzzylogic99
,
Creature, randomidget
,
TheWayItEnds

^This is a PRETTY FREAKIN HUGE day, by the way. The TWIE lynch was essential. I have thoughts about the VCA prior to here, but those can wait until I post this.

In post 9883, Varsoon wrote:
Farside22 (4):

ReasonablyRational
,
Thefuzzylogic99
,
Creature
,
Almost50

TheWayItEnds (2):

Kraskaeaque, mastin2

Creature (2):
MagnaofIllusion, Farside22

TheFuzzyLogic99 (1):

Shadow_Step

Not Voting (4):

Shiro
,
grapes
,
randomidget
,
TheWayItEnds

In post 9950, Varsoon wrote:
Farside22 (3):

ReasonablyRational
,
Thefuzzylogic99
,
Creature

Creature (3):
MagnaofIllusion, Farside22
,
Almost50

TheWayItEnds (2):

Kraskaeaque, mastin2

TheFuzzyLogic99 (1):

Shadow_Step

Not Voting (4):

Shiro
,
grapes
,
randomidget
,
TheWayItEnds

In post 10226, Varsoon wrote:
TheWayItEnds (LYNCH):

Kraska77, mastin2
,
ReasonablyRational
,
Creature
,
Thefuzzylogic99
,
Almost50
,
Farside22

Creature (2):
MagnaofIllusion
,
Shadow_Step

Kraska77 (1):

grapes

Not Voting (3):

Shiro
,
randomidget
,
TheWayItEnds

^Worth noting: while RR did join the lynch, I had to fight tooth and nail to get them there.
At this point, as a quick note to make sure I don't forget: Fuzzy has strong evidence suggesting he's not scum via VCA. Shiro has somewhere between minor and medium evidence that Shrio isn't scum via VCA. Almost50 has very VERY minor evidence he wouldn't be scum via the VCA, but nothing so conclusive as to remove him.
The main two who are

not

cleared via VCA are grapes and Reasonably Rational, though I would like to remind you that in this game everyone has more reason to be town than scum in spite of (at least) one person being scum, that VCA is just a tool not a godly weapon of scum destruction, and that the main thing I'm doing with this VCA isn't so much crunching the numbers as I am using the VCA to remember what was happening in the game at the time and therefore what the scum were likely to be doing and not be doing.

I am skipping Day Six--the only players voted (with the possible exception of Shiro, who was voted by Creature) were town that day, so there's nothing to learn except that town were voted that day; there is no way to discern scum from town there aside from arbitrary guesses as to what scum behavior would be.

In post 11000, Varsoon wrote:
Creature (3):

Shiro
,
Almost50
,
MagnaofIllusion

Shadow_Step (2):

Farside22, Creature

Not Voting (6):

Shadow_Step
,
Reasonably Rational
,
grapes
,
mastin2
,
Thefuzzylogic99
,
randomidget

In post 11100, Varsoon wrote:
Creature (4):

Shiro
,
Almost50
,
MagnaofIllusion
,
Shadow_Step

Shadow_Step (3):

Farside22, Creature
,
Thefuzzylogic99

Not Voting (4):

Reasonably Rational
,
grapes
,
mastin2, randomidget

In post 11244, Varsoon wrote:
Creature (LYNCH!):

Shiro
,
Almost50
,
Shadow_Step
,
mastin2
,
Reasonably Rational
,
MagnaofIllusion

Shadow_Step (4):

Farside22, Creature
,
Thefuzzylogic99
,
grapes

Not Voting (1):

randomidget

^This also looks pretty fucking clear. Thefuzzylogic and grapes were both on Shadow_step, whereas Shiro/RR/Almost50 were all on Creature. I'd say that's pretty damn relevant.

I don't see much which can be gleaned from day eight votes, given that Shadow_step scumclaimed and literally the only non-Shadow vote was from Almost50. Which, I suppose, you can use to argue is something only stubborn town would do: "Yeah Shadow literally scumclaimed, but I don't give a damn, I'm voting for Fuzzy to make a statement!" I've actually DONE stuff like that before. I can totally buy him having done that as town.

I mean. You can draw your own conclusions from this all you'd like. But it pretty clearly shows, at least for me, that Reasonably Rational is, overall, one of the best lynches we have.
-Thefuzzylogic has STRONG VCA backing behind him being town.
-Shiro can only be scum if there are two scum, AND has at least okay backing behind being town via VCA.
-Almost50 has a notoriously bad voting record, so I understand grapes's suspicion there, but I just don't think Almost50 is actually scum. The votes were objectively bad but subjectively look extremely town.
-grapes's voting record isn't stellar, but it's not exactly bad, either: the moves grapes make look like they are town-motivated.
-Reasonably Rational's voting is "technically good", in that RR voted both SirCakez and TheWayItEnds, but I've made my thoughts clear on both of those lynches. They also lynched Creature over Shadow_step, and critically,

kept Thefuzzylogic from shooting Shadow_step

.

It's really pretty fucking simple.
Thefuzzylogic shouldn't be lynched at this stage.
Shiro shouldn't be lynched unless we receive confirmation of two scum.
So that leaves Almost50, grapes, and Reasonably Rational as lynches.
I'm not lynching grapes, making a grapes lynch impossible today.

Meaning, if you want a lynch, and you don't want that lynch to be Almost50, the only really viable lynch is Reasonably Rational.
At this stage, my plan is basically:
RR > grapes > Shiro. If grapes can't be lynched, then we have confirmation of one scum left, and I'd entertain the possibility of lynching Almost50, and I'd be flexible in the order of grapes/Shiro. But I really don't think we'll get there.

Because it really just is Reasonably Rational.

mastin2 · Tue Dec 27, 2016 6:07 pm

In post 11877, grapes wrote:And did you actually read my post?

Admittedly...not 100% in its entirety. But let me tell you this.

I almost never read a wall all the way through.

I skim them all the damn time.

Even ones which don't use the awful blocky text paragraph format of doom, I tend to not read in their entirety, especially if the subject is of little interest to me.

...But your wall? Your wall, I read in FAR more detail than normal. I read parts of it that I would never normally read, and the parts I normally read only partially, I was reading fully in their entirety. I saw what you were doing, and it was not something I see scum in your position doing. It's that simple, really.

mastin2 · Tue Dec 27, 2016 6:27 pm

It's moments like this where I wish I could post:

NUKE: Reasonably Rational!

And have the moderator acknowledge that as a valid action which would remove RR from the game permanently.
Alas. I don't have that power. Not this game anyway. GOD I wish I did. Would be so much the right thing for me to do right now, and make the game SO much simpler, if RR could just be removed just like that.

Since I DON'T have that power, though...I have to fight the old-fashioned way to force a lynch on RR.
Like.
I am continuing to look at evidence as I speak, looking to see if there's any smoking gun on who the last scum would be that I have missed.
But short of me finding that, I just really think it's Reasonably Rational. We're talking, in the 90% percentile range. I don't use that percentile lightly anymore. (If I did, it wouldn't exactly mean much anymore.

) It's really just them.

mastin2 · Tue Dec 27, 2016 6:39 pm

In post 8707, Shadow_step wrote:
So we have 3 scum flips and you want to lynch based in hypothetical be. Okay we might as well hand the game to scum ffs.
Let's lynch obscum tfl .

This was in reference to a case against TheWayItEnds, in which Shadow_step protected TWIE and focused on Thefuzzylogic.

Unless you think that Shadow_step was directing attention from basically-a-goon-TWIE onto one-of-scum's-more-powerful-roles-Thefuzzylogic, bussing when it would've been ridiculously easy to focus attention on town, this is preeeeeeeeeetty clearly a sign that Thefuzzylogic isn't scum.

mastin2 · Tue Dec 27, 2016 6:44 pm

In post 10271, Shadow_step wrote:@Mastin
I'm not really understanding why A50 is not scum for you?
Is it just because he was hard defending SC day 1? Well SC was possibly the most powerful scum role in the game because of him being the "leader". I wouldn't discount it.

This is also worthy of note.

mastin2 · Tue Dec 27, 2016 6:47 pm

In post 10843, Shadow_step wrote:I think its TFL/Creature/Shiro in these 3
I have zero trust in TFL and what he will do, if he shoots town we lose a lynch.

This may not be enough to clear Shiro, but posts like this make it pretty abundantly clear that Thefuzzylogic isn't scum.

mastin2 · Tue Dec 27, 2016 6:57 pm

In post 10851, Shadow_step wrote:I have played with Cerb before and I honestly don't think he is dumb enough as scum to trigger an event which can lead them to be POE'd like this, plus when there is a mod confirmed IC and there is a mason confirmed townie. It was obvious that none of the scum were likely to be going to get that reward.
Never lynching MOI/random/mastin/RR
Very unlikely to be lynching Grapes
Rest all could be scum
But I'm pretty sure its in the three I mentioned before.

By the way, this is one of only two (or three, or 2.5 really) mentions of an RR read, the other being here:

In post 7123, Shadow_step wrote:I have town leans of varying proportions on A50, Mcmenno and farside.
grapes, random and RR are nullish town.
Tfl is null scum.
xk, creature are scum reads.
No idea about the rest

Aside from this, other RR interactions?

In post 7128, Shadow_step wrote:
In post 7117, Titus wrote:@Everyone who is on, If you had to pick a scum in RR/Almost/Skybird, who would you pick and why?
Sktbird, because I have town reads on the other two.

(^Pseudo read, the .5)

In post 9075, Shadow_step wrote:
In post 9074, Reasonably Rational wrote:It specifically says non-factional in there. Like A50 said, all it does is confirm that if you're scum, you're just a goon. And if you're town, you terribly misplayed this.
wait wut
Reasonably Rational wrote:Why weren't you trying to appear as a strong or of some sort? Or pushing people hard andbeing super active? The only value a VT has is in their scumhunting, and getting killed instead of an actual PR.
Nobody listens to me *shrug*

^Directly answering a question

In post 9144, Shadow_step wrote:
In post 9124, Reasonably Rational wrote:Fuzzy is 90% town with snarkys flip (only way he's not is if his team deliberately let snarky live because they were afraid they would be lynched if they didn't have him around as a distraction), farside flip is most relevant for this particular scenario since she was, during the time the event was decided, the other most likely lynchee.
This sentence is a contradiction in itself, why is Fuzzy town because he saved Snarky. He was lynch bait anyway
I already said he did this because he's scum and wanted the meter to go to -4 ffs

^Trying to lynch Fuzzy

In post 9335, Shadow_step wrote:
In post 9326, Reasonably Rational wrote:Creature/shadow: is there anything xkfyu said in the pt yesterday/last night that town should know? Any opinions on the game state etc?
He wasn't talking about his reads a lot in the PT except scum reading Snarky. I guess it was because he didn't trust Creature. He was town reading TWIE because he cleared grapes using his event amongst other things.

^Another direct question answer

In post 11001, Shadow_step wrote:
In post 10977, Reasonably Rational wrote:[big-ass rant about farside]
This actually makes sense. Farside keeps changing her story too many times. Do you think lynchproof+deathproof makes sense as a town role?

^Agreeing against farside

mastin2 · Tue Dec 27, 2016 6:58 pm

In post 11031, Shadow_step wrote:I keep feeling paranoid about grapes being scum who is just been coasting after hard bussing SC day 1.

^This is another thing of note.

mastin2 · Tue Dec 27, 2016 7:16 pm

In post 6760, Skybird wrote:
Near Town

RR – His interactions show me that he is trying to solve the game. Also the Hydra dissonance. I feel this shows that both heads are active and trying to solve the game.
TheFuzzylogic99 – Based on Math’s read since Math flipped town.
Almost50
Grapes

Scum Pool

DGB
– no attempts to figure the game out and weird claims/gambits.

TWIE
– Haven’t seen much from him (if anything). I know this is the way that TWIE normally is, but by now I would expect to start seeing some insights into players.

Snarkysnowman

Still Processing

Shadow Step

Shiro

Not Chara
MagnaofIllusion
McMenno
Creature
Randomidget
Firebringer

The main question to ask here is whether she put one, or two, scumbuddies in the still processing zone. If two, Shiro's the only possibility. If one, Shiro is town.

Regardless, we know for a fact that she put a scumbuddy in the "near town" pile because literally every fucking possible scum candidate is in that pile unflipped.

Of them, Almost50 and grapes are both blind without reasoning; Fuzzy and RR are with reasoning.
So the second question would be, reasoning or no reasoning for the scumbuddy?

If reasoning, then Reasonably Rational sticks out like a sore thumb, as the only read Skybird explains and also as something which doesn't really seem to fit, and also has a weird progression for someone who was voting the slot earlier--admittedly as a sheeping vote, but then when she unvoted in 3965, it was "not seeing them as scum", not "seeing them as town". (An important difference.) So she went from blindly voting RR, to unvoting, to having RR as one of her strongest townreads.

mastin2 · Tue Dec 27, 2016 7:23 pm

In post 7928, TheWayItEnds wrote:is there a reason were not claiming what the gem win condition is?

In post 8180, Skybird wrote: At this point I agree with Shiro that Far is most likely 3rd party survivor at worst case. I'd like to see her get lynched before LyLo to be sure we don't all lose to her at end game if she's left alive though.

You know I'm reading these two posts, and in them I'm seeing a reflection, a reflection which shows Reasonably Rational's pushes at points after this which are almost identical in literally every single way.

Reasonably Rational pressed the gems about not revealing their wincon.
Reasonably Rational pressed for farside to be lynched so that "we don't all lose to a 3rd party win". (And later retconned into "siding with scum", butstill, same idea of being endgamed regardless.)

I read these posts, by known scum, about our third parties.
And I think of Reasonably Rational's given stance on our third parties.
They are aligning perfectly.

I think there's a damn good reason that Reasonably Rational's stances are a dead fucking mirror to flipped scum's stances.

mastin2 · Tue Dec 27, 2016 8:30 pm

In post 599, SirCakez wrote:
In post 515, Almost50 wrote:
In post 355, SirCakez wrote:Almost bby want to ally?
Sure, why not! It's a BIG gamble on my part, I know (bc .. you know .. in the majority of games we were of opposite alignments), but a very good player IMHO and if you're town here then we rock!!
I'll submit the request right now
Ok I sent in the request. It will be worth it.

Time for some early reads!
Town pool = Fire, Not Chara, mastin, grapes, farside
Scum pool = Mcmenno, kraskaesque, obi
Special slot who gets their own corner because I can't read them = reasonably rational

Anyone else hasn't made an impression on me

For what it's worth: I do not think this is scum-scum allying interactions. It's possible, I suppose, but looking at SirCakez's reads, the ally seems to be done for buddying purposes, to get Almost50 to become an ally beyond the ally request itself: in short, a way to let Almost50 know "hey, I'm valuable here". Like, I have trouble reading SirCakez's post here as anything other than "I am doing this so that you will townread and defend me".

In post 943, SirCakez wrote:Town:
Fire, Not Chara, mastina
,
grapes
,
farside
Nulltown: Yume, Creature, Klingon
,
A50
,
CoolDog
Null: Kraskaesque, KTS
,
Foxbird, Skybird
,
Seraphim
,
Random
,
TWIE
,
Shiro
,
DGB

Nullscum:
Xkfyu, Snarky
Scum: Mcmenno, Obi

Special slot who gets their own corner because I can't read them =
reasonably rational

So at this point, scum didn't know DGB was a traitor, but they would know each other. And SirCakez put literally all of the flipped scum in his null reads here. This makes me inclined to believe grapes is not in fact scum. The main questions?
-Is Almost50 in nulltown the deviation from the nullreads of scumbuddies?
-Are either Shiro/Fuzzy scum in the nulls, or are they town? (I'm strongly inclined to think the latter.)
-What do you make of RR essentially being "permanently null, but in a special kind of null"? For me, I think that it fits the mold of the nullreading of a scumbuddy.

In post 1391, SirCakez wrote:
In post 1072, grapes wrote:Nothing he's said has felt genuine and a lot of his thoughts are surface level. Even very early game I thought his tone felt off and his stances are hard to follow. Like his menno read is for fishing and he's stayed far too sticky and confident there considering mcmenno has done some town things. Obi-wan vote was pretty bad. It's either scum fanning the flames of a tvt or cakes sawing for chara.
I will give you this first part, I haven't been putting any real effort in so far and it's obviously causing me to be read incorrectly. So I'm going to work harder on putting in real content. The second part - what town things are you referring to from McMenno? Nothing has stuck out to me from him, almost everything he's posting is just fluff and useless. I know he can contribute more. Final point - I don't understand what was wrong with this vote? Obi has been a scumread for me since pregame. See below quote
In post 1122, Creature wrote:Seriously, look at her scumreads:
In post 1104, Obi-Wan Kenobi wrote:
ScumReads

Not Chara
Kraskaeaque (kraska77 + lycanfire)
Seraphim
SnarkySnowman
Creature
Not Chara is new. Kraskaesque are a hydra of newer players. Seraphim and SnarkySnowman are know as lynchbaits. grapes sees me as extremely lynchable.
This is a great example of a post that sucks from Obi. All of those scumreads are lurkers and lynchbait. Nothing risky.

I also do not see this as a scum-scum interaction.

In post 1394, SirCakez wrote:
In post 1189, Seraphim wrote:SirCakez and McMenno are two other scumreads I have. If a wagon emerged on either on them, I would definitely join in. grapes has largely outlined a fairly excellent case on Cakez, but there is a strong tendency of surface level play, a going through the motions of engagement. I wanted to pressure TWIE almost more than I scumread them. If that makes sense. See if I could beetlejuice them into the thread.
This is a strong post from Sera, like some others noted. I agree with basically everything said here except for the scumread on me obviously, but I can see where he's coming from on that read. Feel good enough to move Sera to nulltown.
In post 1274, grapes wrote:
@Cakes
Wanna ally?
I'm not sure why you're asking this, considering your huge scumread on me?

This I also see as a good not-scumbuddy interaction, in this case both with Fuzzy's slot and with grapes. (For that matter, I did note 1193 from TWIE, but I thought it still possible--1189 is more of a post for why Fuzzy's slot isn't likely to be scum.)

In post 1403, SirCakez wrote:There is probably at least 2 scum among my nulls
Town:
Fire, mastina
,
grapes
,
farside, Yume
Nulltown: Creature, Klingon
,
A50
,
Seraphim

Null:
Kraskaesque, KTS
,
Foxbird, Skybird
,
Seraphim
,
Random
,
TWIE
,
Shiro
,
DGB
,
NC, CoolDog
Nullscum: Xkfyu, Snarky
Scum: McMenno, Obi

Notably absent from the list: Reasonably Rational. Fuzzy's slot is listed twice, though the nulltown one is the accurate one.

In post 1421, SirCakez wrote:
In post 1418, Almost50 wrote:SC has not been talking much to me so far, and it feels like my first episode alliance with him didn't even help me get a more confident read about him

I had thought of him to be town based on the very fact he requested to ally with me. I'm usually suspicious of him bc whenever we play in the same game we're of different alignments. This has been the case in most of our previous games together and it lead me to always be suspicious of him, so wanting to be in a PT with me I thought meant he was town for sure.

But the lack of communication in that PT is starting to worry me. I have yet to check beyond this post I'm responding to to see if he had been posting in this game at all.
Check back there

This is another interaction which doesn't look like scum-scum to me.

In post 1494, SirCakez wrote:If I was scum and wanted to attack people on the NC wagon, why wouldn't I be going for lurking A50 or grapes who is already scumreading me and being scumread by NC?

In post 1506, SirCakez wrote:The point is that A50 or grapes would have been easier and better pushes for me to make as scum

This is another very strong one. I don't see SirCakez, as scum, saying this about someone who is a scumbuddy, which to me suggests neither Almost50 nor grapes are scum.

In post 1847, SirCakez wrote:Ok having read through this and NC's view of it, to me it just sounds like you two both developed scumreads on each other at around the same time and are now both being biased about what happened in the hood. Both of your claims of the events in the hood are the same, just with different spins on it.
I think it's highly likely this is a T v T.

I agree with this assessment of the situation. Also, same post...

I was trying to make sure grapes didn't think I was just full of shit and making something up.

NOT something you say about a scumbuddy (grapes), and this was in response to Almost50 in a way I don't think is something which would be said TO a scumbuddy.

In post 1927, SirCakez wrote:
In post 1871, grapes wrote:
Spoiler: reduced
In post 1847, SirCakez wrote:
In post 1587, grapes wrote:I asked him what his reads were and he threw a bunch of naked ones at me.
I told him I'd look into his obi push, realized his iso was a labryth and asked him to summarize why he they were scum in a few sentences.
He drops an entire case in there with bulletpoints.

And at that point. Between all the "can't wait to talk tonight" and "ill be around for a while" stuff.

It just wasn't a good vibe.

Asked him if he'd be willing to claim. He was townreading me but it was hard to get a sense of how strong.
Said he doesn't trust me. That's fine.

But of the questions I asked. My questions about obi seemed to illicit the most reaction. Which makes sense being his top scumread.
Titus towned up a fuck of a lot from day start and that was one of the things I noticed so figured I'd ask about it.
And I remember not resonating with his push at all. Like the things he was bringing up felt more like small forgivable slight inconsistancies that I'd make pushes for as scum. Particularly people like titus who isn't always easy to understand anyway.

My judgment call was. Yes, this push is omgus and malicious and not genuine. At that point I disengaged from the hood and put full focus in the thread on pushing my scumreads.

Later he says "you know for someone who claims to sort in hoods you sure aren't sorting me"

This is posturing.

Later finally he brings up that he didn't gain any alliance bonuses and asked me if it could have anything to do with me.

Before I can respond, he votes me in thread for concluding that my role is more likely to be a scum role.

So where from day start until then did the realization happen that he didn't get alliance bonuses because of me?

When it was the most convenient for him.
Ok having read through this and NC's view of it, to me it just sounds like you two both developed scumreads on each other at around the same time and are now both being biased about what happened in the hood. Both of your claims of the events in the hood are the same, just with different spins on it.
I think it's highly likely this is a T v T.
This is why cakes is scum ftr.

He's quick to write this off as tvt without giving a deeper understanding of what exactly is going on here and our takes on what happened in the hood aren't very similar at all. They're different because what chara said went down isn't what went down because its scum.

In other words.

His logic is "okay these two guys both developed opportunistic scumreads on each other out of nowhere and are both twisting what was said in a hood to make the other person look bad. Feels town on town."

One, my scumread devolved on chara far earlier. Two, that doesn't make any sense.
They sure looks similar to me
If someone outside of you two wants to give their take on what you and NC said that would be great
What doesn't make sense about that?

Another great not-scum interaction between the two.

I mean, there's a difference between bussing, and interacting. And this is not a scum-scum interaction.
For examples of interactions which are more possible to be scum, see: 2307 (confirmed for Foxbird, possible on Shiro), 2327, and 2334 (both for RR). While those are not necessarily what I'd call "indicative of scum interactions", they're a fine example of "interactions which

could

be scum-scum".

The way SirCakez treated grapes was not the way he would treat a scumbuddy.

In post 2340, SirCakez wrote:Town:
Fire, mastin, farside, Yume
Nulltown: Creature
,
A50
,
Seraphim
,
NC
,
grapes
,
Seraphim
,
Kraskaesque,
Null: KTS
,
Skybird
,
Random
,
TWIE
,
DGB
,
Snarky
Nullscum: Shiro
,
Foxbird
,
CoolDog, Klingon
Scum: McMenno, Obi
,
Reasonably Rational
,
Xkfyu

The "review" list made no changes relevant compared to the prior one, actually. The only moved names were town. But of note: grapes has moved from a prior list in town down to nulltown. I find that to be a fairly good sign grapes isn't scum as well. Fuzzy's slot is still listed twice, btw. And here, we have the basic question:
Where did SirCakez put the rest of his scumbuddies? Nulltown, nullscum, or scum? You know by now my opinion.

2431 is a fine example of an interaction which can be scum-scum: he's just talking, to someone who was mostly just talking. He wasn't even trying to convince RR...and he wasn't even trying to fight RR. If he wanted to press RR as scum, there could have been a fight. If he wanted to press RR as town, there could have been effort to dissuade him. Neither was there.

In post 2544, SirCakez wrote:
In post 2508, Almost50 wrote:FGS Town it up. Even if you are Scum, please go get lynched when you're NOT in my Event. Better yet, if you're Town give me something conclusive in our own PT to defend you with.
I'm tryin' mate but people pushing me are either ridiculusly confbiased (mastin, grapes) or just scum (Obi, mcmenno).

Another example of an interaction which does not seem scum-scum, especially not out in the open when as scumbuddies they would have a PT. Also, the grapes bit is again not how I'd think he would treat a scumbuddy.

Notably absent from the "or just scum" pile? Reasonably Rational, his alleged scumread who at this point had already made the "case" against SirCakez.

mastin2 · Tue Dec 27, 2016 8:41 pm

In post 942, Seraphim wrote:Probably should do some real content too. But what content do I have? Hmmmmm. Well. Creature is my strongest non-Mastin/Yume townread (i.e. based purely on play). KTS is town.
I mostly just have a list of players I am peeved at but I think TheWayItEnds stands out as good scumread material.

Vote: TheWayItEnds

In post 989, Seraphim wrote:I am voting TWIE because currently he hits the profile for likely lurker scum. Not my strongest scumread as someone seems to have inferred from my vote, but the one I want to vote at this juncture in the game.

In post 1005, Seraphim wrote:Actually you are totally right about Xkfyu. randommidget has yet to post during D1 and TWIE's posts are pretty shit in general.

Unvote
Vote: Xkfyu

^While I realize this is him moving off of scum onto town, I still like this post, when combined with the others especially.

In post 1174, Seraphim wrote:
In post 997, farside22 wrote:Twie is the one you picked so I'm asking why him over others.
Gut mostly. If I were to try and qualify that statement, out of the lurkers his show the greatest disengagement from the game. When I was working to catch up, I knew that there was no way all of the scum were in the active players list. I didn't have any particularly strong scumreads, just a lot of conflicting personalities and drama in which it was too soon to call who was scum or not. And a lot of shitposting. So I decided to go through some of the lurker isos and see if I could catch something. I tend to do better when there's less information to compute as there is less possibility of read dilution. TWIE stood out as "drive-by" lurking and it seemed like a good place to start until so more stuff happened.

In post 1189, Seraphim wrote:I'm on the fence about a lot of players but here are some thoughts and reads I've had.

farside is town (Even though I will probably get accused of buddying w/e). A high level of engagement with the game and probably the game's strongest scumhunter currently. Which is why Snarky is really hard to read. On the one hand, the push is bullshit. On the other hand, they are putting themselves out there very strongly with their bullshit read/case thing. I'm uncertain as of this moment if that's because Snarky is scum caught with their pants down and now forced to push the read until they can weasel their way out of it OR they are town who genuinely believe what is actually not a fantastic scumread at all. So I'm sitting on that one.

SirCakez and McMenno are two other scumreads I have. If a wagon emerged on either on them, I would definitely join in. grapes has largely outlined a fairly excellent case on Cakez, but there is a strong tendency of surface level play, a going through the motions of engagement. McMenno has been lurking in the wings and also rolefishing super hard. I think every player here wants more answers in terms of role shit but McMenno's questioning of Mastin seemed like scum using the pretense of that lack of information to try and secure a lynch.

I wanted to pressure TWIE almost more than I scumread them. If that makes sense. See if I could beetlejuice them into the thread.
Same thing with Xkfyu. The big difference here being that they showed up and made some other awful posts.

I am really not sure what people are seeing in Not Chara as scum.

I really, really, really, REALLY like this string of posts from Seraphim's slot.

Sure, yeah, it's possible this was early bussing which was backed out of, especially given that in 1530, Seraphim chose McMenno (town) over SirCakez (scum).

But it was REALLY strong early posting, with some great insight and fairly solid reads for the most part.

So, again: Fuzzy's slot is pretty strongly not scum.

mastin2 · Tue Dec 27, 2016 10:16 pm

Another point in favor of Almost50/Shiro/grapes being town, by the way, is admittedly some pretty shitty flavor-spec especially coming from someone who hasn't watched the show and is going purely by the Steven Universe wiki, but.
Army, as a character, makes sense as having a killing-based ability.
The two players with killing-based abilities are Reasonably Rational (their hammer ability) and Thefuzzylogic.
In particular,

shouting that she will tear [The Crystal Gems] limb from limb

^This sounds like it fits RR's hammer ability as a power.

mastin2 · Tue Dec 27, 2016 10:25 pm

(Also, while Yume told me the flavor of Sadie fits for that ability, I struggle to find how. Just sayin'.)

mastin2 · Tue Dec 27, 2016 11:14 pm

Also on the subject of flavor...reading, I can understand why Lapis can be leftovers who joins the town, but not so much leftovers who'd join the scum, and see her more as a town role than anything else--aside from one instance (where she was working alone), she hasn't been antagonistic, even though there have been times where she hasn't been helpful.

Peridot, the KNOWN leftover, started as far more antagonistic, then moved to neutral, and then moved to crystal gems, so it made sense for Peridot to have the option to join the crystal gems.

mastin2 · Wed Dec 28, 2016 8:48 pm

In post 11898, Randomnamechange wrote:@grapes i would not put it past yume to troll town. They have lied about their abilities multiple times in past games

I can't directly confirm my alignment.
Nor can I directly confirm that Yume told the truth about me being confirmed town.

But, I can directly (and I do mean DIRECTLY) confirm that Yume was in fact informed of my alignment. Which is as close as you're going to get. If Yume received my alignment and said alignment wasn't town, do you think Yume would lie?

If so, there's nothing I can do.
But if not, shut the fuck up about this line of discussion, because I can and WILL prove that Yume did indeed receive mod confirmation of my alignment. That's as close as I can get to proving that Yume received mod confirmation that I am town.

mastin2 · Wed Dec 28, 2016 8:57 pm

In post 11907, Almost50 wrote:A Judas is
originally a pro-town role
, but
when it should die
(either by lynch or other kill)
it stays alive and converts to the Mafia's side
instead.)

By the way.

Just wanted to tell you this.

Nobody--and I mean absolutely fucking NOBODY--uses the Judas role.
Not even bastard mods.
It's outside the realm of even a fucking Mind Screw game run by Tar the famous king of running mind screw games.
Every bastard mod in existence refuses to use the Judas role.
And every mod who considers their games to NOT be bastard will not include a Judas role, because bastard is partially defined as alignment changes in the middle of the game (especially ones the player is not aware of), which is

part of the Judas role

.
I've been on the site longer than most people have even so much as HEARD of the game of mafia.
In all my time on here, I've not once. ONCE. Not so much as fucking ONCE. Seen, in a mafia game. a Judas being used.
Seriously: this is how many instances of the word Judas there are in mafia games.
Go through those games and see how many of them

actually

contained a Judas.
Maybe it's a nonzero number, but I'm willing to bet that of those 145 games, less than 5 would have one.

The one and ONLY time I can see a Judas being used? In a semiopen game, where it is KNOWN a Judas is a possible role. E.g. "worst ideas mafia", "bad ideas mafia", or mafia games which use card decks including Judas as a role.

Outside of those specific conditions, the Judas role simply doesn't exist.
Not on mafiascum. That article we have on the Judas role? See how often it has been updated, see how often it has been referenced, see how often people talk about the Judas role compared to when it is actually used.

Mafiascum hates the Judas role. Varsoon would NEVER use it. Ever.

mastin2 · Wed Dec 28, 2016 9:32 pm

In post 11909, Almost50 wrote:For one thing: RR are specialized in setup spec and breaking?? Well, so are YOU.

You're not listening to my point.
My point is, Reasonably Rational is AT LEAST my equal in setup speculation if not my superior especially at gamebreaking.
However, in this game, they have--CONSISTENTLY--been proven, time and time again, to be wrong, going

against

what I was saying, even making a play (telling fuzzy to vig farside) which

cost the town an auto-win

, something that runs contrary to their very nature.
So my point is that they AREN'T doing it properly. They have consistently pushed things that were wrong. And here in the now, they are continuing to push ideas that aren't likely, and they are refusing, in spite of MULTIPLE REQUESTS ON MY PART, to do gamebreaking. They haven't commented, at all, on plans to lock down the game as of today. They've done nothing.

For another: They are specialized in manipulating people into thinking they're Town in PTs?? 1- Titus is skeptical by nature. She cannot be manipulated/pocketed that easily. Furthermore, it was her, me, random, Fuzzy, Shiro, Yume and farside they allied with, not just one or two players.

Oh believe me. Titus can be manipulated. She is indeed skeptical by nature. She is not immune to making false assumptions, however. And when she locks onto an idea, she almost never will release it. And, say she locked onto a wrong idea of certain players being scum. (e.g. farside.) Say someone like RR agreed with her. How do you think Titus would react to that? It is going to be more favorable than not. Perhaps she holds some healthy speculation on RR, but she is going to assume--correctly--that both RR and her other scumread cannot be scum together, and thus, only one of them can be scum. And if she deems it to be the other one, what does she do with RR?

Give them slack. To the point where, especially in PTs, but also in-thread, it would appear that she doesn't have a scumread on RR at all. And at that point, yes, she has been manipulated. Sure! True pocketing isn't possible. But deception is possible, and Titus lacks communication skills. I do believe she, like me, lies at least partially on the autistic spectrum (she's free to correct me on this if I'm wrong postgame), and inherent in that is not communicating ideas as clearly as she thinks she is. So she might not have trusted RR, yet with her words, at the time of her death, fully appeared to.

And beyond that. NOBODY is immune to being manipulated in a private PT. Drixx has manipulated ME in a private PT. Smite Mafia would like to remind you of how brilliantly executed that was. There, he was also manipulating the third Mayan God player as well. Sure! Maybe RR wouldn't be able to manipulate all of Titus/you/random/Fuzzy/Shiro/Yume/farside at the same time! But they didn't have to. All they had to do was manipulate you ONE, or in the case of a season finale, TWO at a time. And that can be done repeatedly. Time and time again, you can pull this same stunt off. Manipulating a single person in private is easy. Manipulating two people in private is still easy.

There's a damn fucking good reason why content should be given IN HERE. In the thread.
And Reasonably Rational has

consistently

failed to deliver it. The content RR has given has been direct copy-pastes from private topics. The content RR has been giving has been rehashing and giving brief glimpses into the private topics, without actually giving NEW info, and without giving the WHOLE of the private topic.

So Reasonably Rational will bring forth something that--to a member of the private topic in question--looks good, and those players will vouch for that thing being good, without actually putting forward all the thoughts for all the players to scrutinize. Do you know why? Because if Reasonably Rational let their posts in their private topics be scrutinized, ALL of them, inconsistency after inconsistency would crop up, bad push after bad push would come out, and all the players would know as much.

Hypothetically, it could very well be that you manipulated her into fake-claiming the text on the wall (i.e. there was no text but she was convinced claiming so is for the best).

You know what my fucking power is. You know DAMN well and good that I can EXPLICITLY prove this to be false. Fuck! The only reason I haven't is because I honestly made a bit of a mistake in choosing the order of my night actions. (My second night action you're aware of should've been done tonight rather than done earlier.)

Third: You assert you don't want grapes (and didn't want far) lynched based on speculation of either being 3P, and you want to lynch scum. Well, I seem to remember YOU were the one who said to lynch all 3P at the start of THIS VERY GAME. Why you changed your stance is a mystery to me.

You're either senile or never read the discussion because my stance here has always been consistent.

I am THE strongest defender of third parties on site. THE. strongest. I consistently advocate for them. Fuck! If I know that a serial killer is a serial killer, I still insist on not lynching the serial killer, on leashing them, unless the serial killer then breaks from the leash and acts anti-town after being outed. I will, EXPLICITLY, try to utilize

even a malevolent third party

, YET ALONE, benevolent ones.

The one, and ONLY, reason why I was against third parties is because I didn't believe there would be any third parties in this game especially given the criticism about the third parties in V's last game or two. I said I would lynch third party claims because I was under the impression said third party claims would be scum fakeclaiming third party, and not actually BE third party.

Then, the crystal gems were revealed, and farside revealed her third party power. When I saw the NATURE of those third party roles, I knew them to be town. Farside's role? Nearly identical to BRantz's role in a Varsoon game I was reading. (Because I tend to read, or at least skim, MOST Varsoon games.) The crystal gems faction? A full FACTION (and therefore not possibly a single scum player, fakeclaiming), unlikely to be a scum faction, and whose wincon is near-identical to the Undead Risen Slave third party wincon that I made for Gistou. (Basically town, but not QUITE town, being harder than town to win but still having pro-town interests at heart.) And given how similarly I think to Varsoon, I understood that to immediately be true.

And GIVEN THOSE CLAIMS. Given how many fucking third party players WE ALREADY HAVE. Damn straight that I do not believe there are any more in the game. I do not think there are any more leftovers. I think there is one scum, and one scum ONLY left. I think that the only third parties left are the crystal gems. And that's it. Nothing more, and nothing less.

It is also about your push being weak and unconvincing to me.

I'd say "pot, kettle, black", but that would imply that there was a strong resemblance between your arguments and mine when they're the difference between night and fucking day.

My arguments?
Long essays that give detailed, multi-layered thoughts covering the whole game:
What every flipped scum player has talked about.
Where every player has been voting.
Where every player has been pushing.
What every player is doing right in the now.
Every piece of mechanical evidence we have at hand.
Every piece of flavor we have at our disposal.
Why I think every player is town.
Why I think RR specifically is scum.
And probably half a dozen other things I am forgetting because I am easily distracted.

Your arguments?
"...Because I think so?"
"Because RR were town in this area that you can't see?"
"Because gut?"
"Because POE townreads on all players except one?"
"Because I disagree with your read?"
"Because of this crazy setup spec I have which is in violation of occam's razor and also site meta standards?" (Judas as a role.)

That's literally fucking all of what you have presented.
You disagree?

Prove it!
Show me your case in explicit detail.
Because I've only been fucking asking for you to do this since, you know. DAYSTART. And been given nothing.

Lynch anyone but grapes and he becomes UNLNCHABLE tomorrow, and I ave no way to know exactly what he has planned next.

That's the fucking thing, though.

You say grapes has this "plan" in place to win the game.
Yet, you don't know exactly what that plan is. You just assume "there must be a plan here".

I have shown you, rather EXTENSIVELY, exactly what Reasonably Rational's plan is. I haven't just said they have a plan. I've shown, in detail, exactly what that fucking plan is. I have laid out their path to victory and why they have done what they have done, because their moves have been strategically laying down the best possible path to a win. Sure, the strategy I have shown you isn't foolproof--but it's the only path down which they don't lose the game.

mastin2 · Wed Dec 28, 2016 9:35 pm

In post 11913, TheFuzzylogic99 wrote:I think RR is likely town. They seem like they are trying to scrum hunt.

Show me.
Like, show me a single fucking post of scumhunting.
Not, "I think player X is the best lynch".
Not, "Please do this".
Not setup spec.
If you think there is scumhunting from them.
SHOW IT TO ME.

mastin2 · Wed Dec 28, 2016 9:49 pm

In fact.
Here, have a practical demonstration of the manipulation.
Read this private topic.
Too lazy?
Too damn bad. At the very least, read Drixx's iso.
Compare his posting in there to the posting you see in your private topics.

Now take it further.
This was his in-game iso.
See what kind of difference there is in presentation?

I am telling you.
ESPECIALLY at this point. Reasonably Rational's consistent dedication to keeping the majority of their alleged content entirely exclusive to their private topics is serving a pure scum agenda.

In contrast!
Look at what they did in here, and then look at their in-game equivalent.
Literally every thought they posted in the Connie-Centipeedle-Steven topic, they brought to the game thread.
Literally. EVERY. single. thought. Was brought directly from there, into the game thread. Maybe not immediately. In fact, some of their traps for scum (namely, Titus) RELIED on the delay in timing.

But they did in fact bring literally every single thought from their PT with us into the game.

Now I ask of you.
Read your entire PT with RR.
How much of what they said, did they bring to the thread?
25%? 50%? It can't be much more than that. If so, please be so kind as to point out exactly when and WHERE they brought this content directly to the thread because I'm telling you.

I keep on hearing, time and time again.
"Oh, their content in the PT is town!"
And time and time again, I'm asking. "Okay. So they were town in the PT. Where the fuck is that townness IN THREAD?"
And time and time again, I'm being told, "...But...they were town in the PT!"
Without. being. shown.

mastin2 · Wed Dec 28, 2016 10:05 pm

Like.

I have 575 posts in my iso.
Do you know how many of those posts have been today?
88 of them.
I realize that's only a little more than an eighth of my iso. I realize that the game has been going for nine days, so an eighth of my entire iso isn't that terribly much. But do you know how long I've been posting those 88 posts? Less than two weeks. Over six posts a day. And these aren't exactly short posts! These are lengthy posts, where I lay out detail. After detail. After detail. And need I remind you! I didn't suddenly start pushing Reasonably Rational out of the blue today. I was pushing them on Day Eight, too. (Admittedly as a vig.) 11465 as a fine example. 11312 is where I first laid out the plan though. 11500 is another such instance. You get the idea.

I've not only been showing why RR is the last scum. I've also been showing why other players are NOT the last scum, and also explaining why it is frankly LAUGHABLE to think there's more than one.

This isn't stubbornness on my part. I've been looking to be proven wrong.
I've been LOOKING. Actively LOOKING. For signs that I am wrong. For signs, so much as a SINGLE sign. That someone else could be scum. Fuzzy. grapes. Almost50. Shiro. (Well admittedly Shiro's strength is in having been bubbled.) Everyone in this game has reason to be town, and everyone in this game has scummy aspects of their play which can be construed as coming from scum.

Yet I've gone to GREAT lengths to explain exactly--and I do mean EXACTLY--why I feel the way I do. Who is not likely to be scum, why the reasons for them being scum don't hold water for me, why the reasons for them being town are valid to me. And also, why I think the last scum is Reasonably Rational in literally dozens of different ways, why probability points to them being scum, why I think the things that are town from them don't make them be town.

What more can you ask for?
I've given you basically everything short of a page-by-page play-by-play of the game.

What have YOU given ME?
"You're wrong."
"RR's town because of effort." (Not showing where this alleged effort is.)
"RR's town because of PT stuff." (Again, something which hasn't appeared in the thread, or if it has...has not been demonstrated since I HAVE asked this, many times, and been given nothing.)
"I don't think your reasons are valid." (No why. Just flatly, "I disagree".)

I really don't know what you're asking for.
I've shown you WHY I don't think grapes is scum. I've shown you WHY I don't think there are two scum. I've shown you WHY I think grapes is town. I haven't seen people disagree with my reasons. Just point out, "but, grapes COULD be scum, and COULD be fooling you". Of course he fucking could be. But I've explained exactly why I don't think he is. And you HAVEN'T explained why he would be.

mastin2 · Wed Dec 28, 2016 10:32 pm

I swear.
Multiple times this day phase, even.
I've left out of pure, sheer frustration.
I've walked away from posting. Because I've told myself.
"No matter what I say. It's not going to make a difference. In spite of them having EVERY REASON TO TRUST ME. And EVERY REASON TO LISTEN TO ME. And MY PAST RECORD. And ME KNOWING THE PLAYERS. Despite all of that. They won't listen to me. But maybe, if I'm patient enough, if I wait long enough, playername will come in and show them the light. Be sensible. Convince them with sheer, hard, cold logical precision why RR is the play for today."

Who said player is has varied.
I've put my faith in grapes.
I've put my faith in Magna, because MoI is a pretty damn good mechanical-based player AND a scumhunting-based player, so he should be picking up on all the logical inconsistencies from Reasonably Rational, every suboptimal play they have orchestrated, and he should realize that as town they wouldn't be doing those and thus he should be spearheading their lynch. I've waited for that magical moment, where I would have an ally that someone else would listen to, that someone else could see as maybe having a point.

Because I know that I'm not the most charismatic of players.
I know that I don't really know what to put forward to convince others.
I know that when I try to strongarm a lynch through, I am doing so on purely a "PLEASE just fucking trust me!" basis, and that I don't really have any other real tool at my disposal.

And yet, here I am doing my damnedest anyway because that magical, mythical, mystical player who can muster up the rest of the town to my aide simply isn't materializing.
I'm throwing everything including the kitchen sink forward here.

More than any other player. I swear to god, more than any other player, I doubt my reads. I constantly reevaluate them. I'm always right, and always wrong, about my reads, because I always see a player as scum, and I always see them as town. I simply have to deal with the probabilities. And I'm telling you. Right here and now. In a game that is 477 pages long and counting. Everyone has reason to be town--does anybody disagree with this? Everyone has reason to be scum--yes, even me. Yes, even the crystal gems. Said reasons may not be valid, of course. But they exist.

I considered the possibility of the gems being scum. I have ruled it out as implausible, and that the probabilities point to them being town.
I considered the possibility of two scum left. I have ruled it out as implausible, with the probabilities pointing towards only one scum remaining.

I have strongly considered the possibility of Shiro being scum, especially with Shiro's attitude and overall lackluster content with pushes which weren't exactly the most helpful. I have ruled it as less plausible, with probabilities pointing towards Shiro being town, both because Shiro has been voted by scum and voted FOR scum during a key day phase. (Namely, DGB, when we KNOW DGB was in communication with the scumteam.)

I have strongly considered the possibility of Fuzzy being scum, because of Fuzzy being a non-topvoter, because Fuzzy having a kill fits Army's flavor, because of Fuzzy's consistently derp play, and because of the lack of a second shot. I have ruled it as implausible, with the probabilities pointing towards Fuzzy being town because Fuzzy's slot has consistently voted and pressured scum, and been voted and pressured BY scum, with scum's moves initially focused on eliminating Fuzzy via a lynch and when that proved impossible, focused on keeping Fuzzy from being confirmed as town via shooting during a night scum also shoot.

I have strongly considered the possibility of grapes being scum, because of grapes's only votes on scum being SirCakez D1 and Shadow_step the day before Shadow scumclaimed. (Note that I have NOT considered grapes being scum because of the idea of him switching to being scum.) I have ruled it as less plausible, with probabilities pointing towards grapes's continued pushing of scum (even if he didn't vote many) as coming from town, with his role making sense as being town, and him not making sense as having Lapis Lazuli as a fakeclaim as scum.

I have strongly considered the possibility of Almost50 being scum, because Almost50 has consistently tried to fuck the town over with his actions the whole game, he is a capable scum player, he is capable of obfuscating insanity as scum, and has to some extent cruised on early towncred while also making nonsensible pushes. I see it as neither plausible nor implausible, but my probability meter says more likely to be town than not, off of the sincere nature OF his interactions and how I don't see the scum motive behind his actions, with a town-sounding tone and a complete and utter lack of an obvious scum agenda; there's no hint of a plan from him, simply...posting, which I don't see as being from scum.

I have strongly considered the possibility of Reasonably Rational being scum, because literally everyone else is saying they are, because RR can in fact be wrong even as town, and because it is POSSIBLE for other players to be scum. I have ruled it as unlikely, because the probabilities point to them being scum. Their actions don't match up with my expectation of their towngame. Their continued deflections and elusive play serve a clear agenda. They have made sub-optimal play after sub-optimal play. They have defended scum at key areas of the game: lynching Creature over Shadow_step. Trying to lynch Creature over TheWayItEnds. Trying to lynch farside multiple times. Insisting on the farside vig. Strongly insisting that Skybird was town. The list goes on and on.

I am telling you that weighing possibilities into probabilities is what I specialize in.
I am telling you that I have looked at every angle. Even the ones which should be utterly impossible, which no sane player would ever rationally consider a valid option.
I am telling you that I have crunched the numbers. Done my math. Done my homework. Researched what I am saying, as much as a player like me who is easily exhausted can possibly research a 477-page game. I've compiled evidence from key areas of the game: what flipped scum have said. What players still alive have said ABOUT flipped scum. Where votes have landed.

And I am telling you.

It all points to Reasonably Rational as being scum.

mastin2 · Wed Dec 28, 2016 10:37 pm

Like.
When I lynched SirCakez, I asked for your trust.
I didn't ask for your trust on Mathblade; that just kinda happened.
I wasn't involved on DGB.
I didn't ask for your trust on SnarkySnowman.
I DID ask for your trust when I lynched TheWayItEnds.
I didn't ask for your trust when we lynched kraskaesque.
I didn't ask for your trust when we lynched Creature.
I was planning on asking for your trust when we lynched Shadow_step, but Varsoon locked the thread before I was able to.

And I am asking you.
One last time.
Just once.
One more time.

To just fucking trust me.
Follow me, one last time, better or worse, and to just lynch Reasonably Rational.

This is not confirmation bias.
This is not a stale read which refuses to change.
I've come to this read only after having weighed all the options and thought everything through extensively.

Reasonably Rational is the last scum. The game will end with their lynch. It's that simple. So I ask again.
Please just fucking trust me on this.

mastin2 · Fri Dec 30, 2016 12:29 pm

In post 11929, Reasonably Rational wrote:You have RECENT examples of the scum play and town play of BOTH of us in large, complex games. Why aren't you using those games?

I am? I mean, I didn't spectate Shadowrun mafia, nor Space Dandy 2 mafia (because that whole game was in two PTs, and I didn't bother to PM V for access to them). The game before that?
Steven Universe Prequel. Which I don't think is representative of your play here--you were mislynched D2, and thus never were fully "in" the game.
The game before that?
Suikoden (town), a game I

have

referenced.
The game before that?
Trouble in the Cougar's Den (scum). A game I HAVE referenced.
The game before that?
This game's predecessor, Steven Universe Mafia (town). A game I HAVE referenced.
Of course, there's a game with both of you plus someone else, that being, Gistou (scum), a game...I HAVE referenced, in spite of how you got nightkilled N2 before you were really "in" the game.

Now how about individual heads? Which, by the way, isn't quite as valid, because while you two play similarly, your play as a hydra IS distinctly different from a solo game, but for the sake of argument let's look anyway. For Cerb...how far back do I have to go to find a game where I saw Cerb solo? Well, not quite solo (he was hydraing with me but I did almost none of our posting), but that'd be Soccer Spirits (town). To be fair, I haven't referenced this game in relationship to you two, but it's been brought up for other reasons. Do you want me to talk about Cerb there? Because the Cerb there did more in ONE day alive than Cerb has done here the whole damn game.
Then you get Bloodborne Mafia (town). Okay, so that's a hydra, too. But in that game, Cerb was gamesolving CONSISTENTLY. The whole time, from the start, and trying to break the game at every step of the way. He was planning, he was plotting, and he did correct flavor speculation. He almost had the game on lockdown, if not for lolscum endgame mechanics. (Which, mind you, was a Varsoon game.)
The game before that? Uni MUM (town) which frankly I never even read and the game was abandoned half-way through (I forget why). I suppose I could research it because technically I was a player in it, but doing so would be effectively the same as ANY secondhand game I did not read when it was ongoing, in that I'd be reading everything after it had happened. (Which mind you is one reason I never bothered to read Space Dandy II. When I read a game, I read it when it is still ongoing. Not when it has already concluded. Concluded games I'll maybe take a look at the PTs of, but only if I was reading the game to get context for said PT.)
The game before that? SaGa Frontier, not a towngame but a third party game of Cerb's. (Also not solo, but that's beside the point.)
The game before THAT? Final Fantasy Mafia (town). Which, mind you, contained nothing BUT scumhunting from Cerb--he did almost no mechanics work whatsoever. It was pure simple scumhunting basically the whole game, where he thought everything through and carefully weighed everything.
Before even THAT? Inorganic Chemistry (town), where Cerb engaged in both scumhunting AND gamebreaking, at least attempts at it.
Before THAT? We Didn't Playtest This (town), a game similar to Uni MUM in that I basically read zero of it, so it'd be no different from second-hand experience. That's every game I've had with Cerb. And most of them, I have referenced already.

For Drixx, the list is similar. I suppose I did (briefly) skim Wake's Role Madness Game (town), but to be honest I never once saw Drixx post; the parts of the game I read were elsewhere.
I suppose I did have a look at Guns 'N Roses Mafia (town), but I only started reading that

after

Drixx was dead. Like, I think I started skimming around day four or five. So I didn't see him there, either.
What else? The same Uni MUM I mentioned for Cerb, I suppose.
Drixx has SaGa Frontier as a town game of his, though I'd need to refresh my memory on his individual contribution. (The main part of games I read in detail is the last day phase of a game, plus random snippets prior to then. Drixx was dead by the last day phase, so I don't have memorized his contribution; I'd need to look it up to get a refresher.)
Do you know how far back the

Drixx game is?
That would be Wifom City (town). To be honest, I had basically forgotten that game existed (sorry, Titus) in spite of my massive contribution there, yet alone, that Drixx was a player there. So I'd have to get a refresher on his contribution there.
The game before that? My introduction to Drixx, SMITE Mafia. (Scum.) Which I did in fact reference.

That's all of them. I've been referencing the newer, relevant games that I have better knowledge of, rather than some obscure game I don't know anything about. You're asking me to reference newer games I have zero knowledge of--blind meta. Something that no, I don't believe in doing. I'll give meta from a game I've so much as skimmed. I'll give meta from games I haven't read IF I have no other resource available as a move of last resort. (I.e., the game or games I

really

want to reference are ongoing and therefore cannot be referenced so I'm forced to improvise and lie thanks to site rules, and find something vaguely similar to the game in question I'm REALLY looking at.) But otherwise? With a player I have multiple completed games with? Damn straight I'll be using first-hand meta rather than blind meta.

Why, then, would he give Sadie as a fake claim to someone with a power that didn't match the flavor?

The two are completely different beasts entirely.
Lapis Lazuli doesn't make sense for a scum's fakeclaim because it's a shitty fakeclaim. People would wonder if grapes was scum just from the flavor alone, and that's

before

knowing of the third parties in the game. AFTER knowing of the third parties in the game, Lapis Lazuli seems like a mighty fine candidate for being one...and site standard (ESPECIALLY after SaGa) would be...to fucking lynch any and all suspected third parties this game.

Sadie being a fakeclaim to someone with a power that doesn't match the flavor isn't the same, because it's more a case of "eh, close enough". I said I struggle to see Sadie match your flavor--not that it is absolutely impossible. I say that Army fits your ability easily. That makes sense to me. We also know that scum's event abilities are tied to the flavor of their fakeclaims, so individual abilities aren't as important as the episode abilities are, and Beachapalooza is something that from my understanding would in fact be tied to Sadie.

Basically, what I'm saying is: scum's powers (minus episode event) match the scum player's flavor first, and then they have a fakeclaim which is "as close to possible" the role in question (after which the episode event is added in). Sadie might be the closest possible role to have that ability...but it's not easy for me to see. It feels like a fakeclaim, rather than an original role.

Varsoon does a good job at hiding fakeclaims from realclaims. Varsoon does a good job of making scum's roles fit to their fakeclaims. Varsoon is an excellent moderator who can disguise who the scum are well...but he is NOT perfect at this. Cerb knows this, considering he managed to catch scum in Bloodborne by using flavor. It wasn't easy. But it also wasn't impossible.

Farside had to die for scum to win and was unlynchable: Demonstrably untrue, and already addressed in 11848

Yeah no. Farside was immune to the scum's nightkill. Farside had a vote ability which could lynch a player with only half the needed votes as normal. Farside was proven to have been the scum's nightkill. Farside was given an absurdly strong role which would be absolutely gamebreaking in the hands of scum. (Ascetic = effectively a godfather, immune to investigation and immune to actions being prevented so a semi-strongman and semi-ninja. Roleblocker = roleblocker, which has an OBVIOUS strength to it. Voting power = overwhelming advantage for scum to have, ESPECIALLY in conjunction with Skybird's double vote and DGB's vote thief ability. In short, farside as scum with Skybird and DGB could endgame the town WELL before expectations. That combination was never going to be a scum role.)

Both MagnaofIllusion and I were hardcore defending farside. And while it's true, the scum will eventually kill me...you said it yourself. MoI has a way to preserve his life. MoI would be around to keep pushing. And even if one of us died! Thanks to the crystal gem's ability, we would be preserved in a chat with the surviving crystal gem, and be able to influence said crystal gem posthumously. With the other still alive, that would mean farside could still not be lynched.

And let's say both of us DID die. Let's say, even, that randomidget either died (eliminating the crystal gems), or was unable to convey our thoughts effectively. The fact that we died when we both were adamant farside was to never be killed would've been proof enough of farside being town. Sure she might kill ONE person defending her. Both of her strongest defenders? FUCK no. People don't do wifom kills, ever. Like, never ever. LEAST of all, farside. And if so! Maybe one. Never two in a row! That's not wifom, that's fucking suicidal.

And then there would be getting a majority on farside because of all of these reasons. And mind you farside STILL has that voting power so that unless the whole fucking majority of the town decides to lynch her, she can push through any lynch necessary to keep herself alive. In 6p, it would take four players to lynch her. In comparison, it'd take only one (or maybe two?) votes for her to lynch someone. So it'd be nearly impossible for the scum to wiggle their way into mislynching farside EVEN WITH BOTH ME AND MAGNA GONE. Which you yourself point out is nigh-impossible because Magna can save himself BY YOUR OWN FUCKING WORD.

So

yes

. Farside was immune to being lynched. YES. That means scum needed her dead.

Scum don't need a mastermind, and if they did, such mastery is a blatant contradiction to the actions scum appear to have taken if they possessed the knowledge we've had this game.

I've already explained this one.
Scum may not need a mastermind.
But the actions of scum, contrary to what you are saying, have not been "dumb". No. Scum have made moves that were

ridiculously

optimal. As just one example, triggering that voting ability after farside's hammer. As another, how coordinated they were during the Beachapalooza event. (Literally the ONLY way you can argue them to have not ALL voted in coordination is by arguing that one/both of Fuzzy/Shiro are scum. Because otherwise, to get the needed votes for Titus/mastina, you need the whole living scumteam to have contributed. In other words: regardless of Almost50/grapes/RR, the scumteam was coordinated.)
That NOT ONLY suggests a scum mastermind, but ALSO shows that scum have been making strategic, coordinated, optimal plays taking into account hidden knowledge that is not known by the rest of the town.
Furthermore! You posit that you contain knowledge which means that you couldn't be scum because scum with your knowledge wouldn't make the plays you have.

Both I and MagnaofIllusion have shown that point to be pretty blatantly false. We don't know what the thought process behind the scumteam has been. (More on that as soon as I'm caught up.) You're pretending that we do. You're assuming that you as scum have perfect knowledge of the game. You're assuming you as scum are not immune to fucking up. You're assuming you as scum aren't capable of making a misplay. You're assuming you as scum cannot make a move which is seemingly suboptimal but serves a longterm agenda. You're assuming you as scum cannot make a move which was assumed optimal but which in hindsight proved to be a mistake. Yet none of those are true.

You are

good

as scum. You are not GODS as scum. You are human. You can make mistakes. You can make plans which rely on exploiting assumptions of you being unable to make a mistake. There are so fucking many reasons why you could have made the plays you have as scum. And pretending they all can't exist is lunacy.

A town!RR at this point would be acknowledging the reasons why I am so damn suspicious of you. A town!RR would recognize and understand EXACTLY why I think you are scum. A town!RR at this point in the game would be a bit upset that I am wrong, but wouldn't be focusing on trying to prove I am wrong. A town!RR would know, recognize, and understand that, yes, they look scummy, yes, the reasons they are town aren't so easily known, and yes, they are suspicious. This insistence on proving yourself to not be scum, this assurance that this couldn't POSSIBLY be your scumgame, is exactly why this is your scumgame.

5) Scum!RR COULDN'T have shot last night: Scum!RR knew A50 was tracking grapes most likely, and that Fuzzy was shooting Farside or A50(Scum!RR doesn't care if he gets shot, because in the scenario you're positing the game is over if he's shot). Scum!RR could have EASILY not pushed Farside and just let fuzzy shoot A50, while Scum!RR shoots whoever he wants EXCEPT farside, secure in the knowledge that A50's track won't be clearing anyone.

Yeah this is pretty blatantly false as well.
One, farside needed to die in order for a scumteam to win. (See above for why.)
Two, ANY shot a scum!RR takes will instantly clear Fuzzy of being scum, which is suicide.
Three, if Fuzzy shot scum!RR, the game is over...so that, IN OF ITSELF, seems to be a pretty damn convincing reason to persuade Fuzzy to shoot at farside, because the risk of Fuzzy shooting a scum!RR is too high otherwise.
Four, let's say Fuzzy shot farside, and RR performed a kill. Well, Almost50 is alive, and gets a result which clears grapes.
So, a scum!RR's ONLY play is not shooting last night. If Fuzzy shoot's scum!RR, it doesn't matter who RR shoots, RR still loses. If Fuzzy shoots farside, RR has reason to not allow Fuzzy or grapes to be cleared. If Fuzzy shoots Almost50, then RR still has reason to NOT shoot, because while grapes would remain unclear, the scumpool would still remain in Fuzzy/grapes/RR...with seven alive, after Shiro was revived. A game which RR cannot win in. (Short of two scum paranoia. Which, mind you...is exactly the fucking thing you're pushing.)

There is no way Varsoon thought any of the gems would be lynched, UNLESS whoever received the miller role didn't claim it D1.

Yeah no.
The crystal gems sound an awful lot like a possible second scumteam. Their wincon doesn't flip upon their death. They are all apparently confirmed to each other alignment-wise. They are given abilities which are focused on survival for the most part. They even have a nightkill of sorts. And given that the crystal gems were so secretive and distrustful, something that would not at all be hard to anticipate in setup design, it would be RIDICULOUSLY easy for at least one of them to get lynched...

especially

if the gems thought it was possible for someone among their ranks to be scum. Apparently, they know each other to be town, but this is not universal; we know from Yume that Yume wasn't absolutely sure all the gems were town. Now! Maybe that was a misunderstanding on Yume's part. But the fact that Yume HAD that belief, even if it was a misunderstanding, implies intentional ambiguity on Varsoon's end in regards to the crystal gems. Which means, they could have potentially supported lynching of one another.

There are dozens of reasons for why the crystal gems, as a third party, were super fucking vulnerable. They absolutely are comparable to the Undead Risen Slaves,

especially

given their apparent wincon requires them to keep someone from the Earth alive, meaning that they can't rely solely on their alleged masonry in order to win. They MUST scumhunt. They MUST correctly identify a town player and keep said town player alive the whole game. It could be any town player, but they must keep at least one town alive. That itself is a weakness in them.

The gems have a RIDICULOUS number of counterbalances to them built in. Among them, the MANY scum killing powers. MULTIPLE scum strongmen. (Given correct conditions, at least.) Slice of Life being an automatic scum strongman. The cluster killing power being likely to take out a gem. Historical Friction potentially serving as a mass-rolecop that could expose the gems. Whatever the fuck the power was which instantly killed Yume. The scum's power which allowed them to stop votes which didn't come from alliances. (A power which could potentially COST THE TOWN AN ENTIRE DAY, and almost did!) That same power giving the scum an extra kill if a scum lynch was possible. (At the slight cost of commuting the scumteam if they lynch town...which isn't really much of a cost, because the scumteam becoming untargetable prevents them from being exposed.) The scum have had countless methods of manipulating the gamestate to punish the gems in various different ways.

And furthermore! The scum have possessed MULTIPLE powers that have "confirmed" them as town. Skybird's "Sworn to the Sword" event ONCE AGAIN giving scum access to the Steven Universe player. (This, incidentally, ties into the above: since scum knew who Steven Universe was from D1, they would BY DEFAULT know AT LEAST one of the crystal gems, if not all if the player who is Steven Universe decided to trust "Connie" enough to out the other gems. Which remains a 50/50 possibility! We still don't know if Yume told Skybird or not.)

Shadow_step's ability was a pretty effective one, as it pseudocleared Shadow_step for days.
Scum's events have, as Varsoon has stated, been tied to town flavors and been immensely pro-town in nature.

The scum have had every possible counter they've needed for the town's strength. The crystal gems are a faction which have a few strengths, but many weaknesses. And furthermore! Of the three players who were confirmable as town, one RELIES ON A THIRD PARTY to be considered town (that would be me), a second is ONLY CONFIRMED TOWN IN 3P LYLO (a scenario incredibly unlikely to ever be reached), and only the third had a power which was absolute (but was on a delayed timer--Titus could have been mislynched during any day, because her power was a Climax power and also a low priority at the start). That gives scum plenty of wiggle room to mislynch said conftown.

Sure. Maybe given this playerlist, and these conditions, the crystal gems were never getting lynched. Sure. Given this playerlist, and these conditions, I wouldn't get lynched. But we have the game itself to prove how conftownable players (in this case, kraskaesque) can get lynched. The numbers absolutely make sense.

You have five explicitly third-party players, one of which who could play as a survivor (and therefore favor scum). You have a soft sixth third party, who if playing to the third party wincon rather than the town wincon will be removed from the game victorious, and thus not care about town or scum. (And therefore by default...favors scum.) That leaves 19 players remaining. We know that there must be at least five groupscum. We also know there is one traitor who is aligned with the groupscum. That leaves a ration--AT BEST--of 13:6.

And you're suggesting that it's 12:7?
Or even, 12:4:7? (Including the crystal gems who are explicitly crystal gems.)

FUCK no, that's not balanced in any realm.

Yeah, if the two third parties who could favor scum (Xkfyu, farside) decided to play town (as both did), the town gains an edge: an extra crystal gem (still third party, mind you), and an extra town player.
But Varsoon explicitly gave those players a third party wincon possibility. And balance, therefore, DEMANDS. DICTATES. That the game must balance in accordance with the assumption they could favor their third party wincons which can in fact favor scum. (Survivor-->goes for the quickest win. Farside-->gets removed from the game as fast as possible, pulling anti-town stunts to get the needed number of points, and upon her removal, is automatically one less person alive and therefore one step closer to a scum win.)

You are treating the third parties as being treated explicitly as town.
But while in practice they may have played out that way, in theory, in GAME DESIGN, they weren't. They're ambiguous-at-best.

And all of this.

Every fucking single word you have written.

Continues to be a dodge of the damn point I am making.
You still. aren't. scumhunting. You still. aren't. gamebreaking. You STILL. aren't. laying out clear paths (PLURAL) to victory, which take into account the powers we have in play. You still aren't talking about how to best utilize every tool at our disposal.

Instead, you continue to focus on defending yourself.

mastin2 · Fri Dec 30, 2016 12:35 pm

In post 11939, TheFuzzylogic99 wrote:Night 6-??????
Night 8-?????

Night six, scum shot at farside. We have her confirmation from this.
She gained a point from someone targeting her, and nobody claimed to have targeted her. Ergo, she was targeted by scum.
From her flip, we know that her claim of her ascetic actually being fully immune to the scum's NK wasn't a lie, so she told the truth: she was immune to the scum's nightkill. Meaning, scum killed her N6, and she didn't die.

Now given that the scum killed her N6 and she didn't die, who do you think had the motive to remove farside from the game by any and every possible method?

Hmm?
Hmm?

...Yeah, exactly.

It's no coincidence that Reasonably Rational started pressing farside after that night.

mastin2 · Fri Dec 30, 2016 1:08 pm

I'd like to point to 11089 and onward from Reasonably Rational.
For a start, it was there that RR explicitly protected Shadow_step from Fuzzy's vig.
It was also where RR began to try and remove farside from the game, via farside's alternative wincon. 11094 shows some more of it.
I'd also like to point to 11101, where Reasonably Rational explicitly says "not trying to lynch or vig you", and that "removing you from the game is effectively a mislynch". We get posts where RR tries to force farside out of the game...but then we get shit like 11148, where suddenly, Reasonably Rational is afraid that farside's wincon is mutually exclusive to all others. The next day, 11327 continues to posit that farside is malevolent third party, in spite of RR having advocated plans to remove farside via her third party wincon the day before and having acknowledged that removing farside via this third party wincon even IF it isn't malevolent was effectively a free scum mislynch. Posts during that day also include things such as "lynch farside, have Fuzzy vig Shadow" (11321 among others), which would have given the scum any number of potential outs, including having Almost50's tracking ability be made absolutely worthless thanks to two scum being alive.

11330 is another post which shows RR treating farside as a malevolent third party. In spite of having tried to get farside to obtain her wincon earlier. In 11406, and I QUOTE EXPLICITLY:

Reasonably Rational wrote:It's not a matter of her throwing in with scum for vote power, it's a matter of her potentially just winning.

From the mouth of RR themselves. It doesn't get any more unambiguous than this. "It's not a matter of her throwing in with scum for vote power". NOT. "It's a matter of her potentially just winning". (11626 is another fine one.)

mastin2 · Fri Dec 30, 2016 1:34 pm

I'd also like to point something out, and this is what I actually logged in to say.
Take a look at D1.
Skybird was explicitly okay with the SirCakez lynch. She said, "I might vote there". She didn't, but she offered, and made no resistance. (I can provide the quotes if you doubt me, but really, this shouldn't be something you've forgotten.)
TheWayItEnds actually raised points for WHY SirCakez was scum. He apparently had a "refusing to vote" policy for the whole game, but he did everything short of voting. SirCakez was basically the only scumspect he pushed D1. So, he implicitly bussed even if he didn't explicitly bus via his vote. (Iso him. It's not a long iso. Basically the whole thing is either contentless fluff, or pushing SirCakez.) He therefore made no resistance to the SirCakez wagon--quite the contrary, he encouraged it.

The third flipped scum we have, Foxbird, didn't mention SirCakez at all, but Foxbird wasn't really mentioning much of anyone, and also made no real effort to resist the wagon. She never voted. The closest to a mention of SirCakez in her iso is quoting Almost50's readslist (where SirCakez was nulltown), and questioning Xkfyu's placement thereof, and later the placement of herself/Skybird.

Now let's compare to the living players.
grapes was one of the strongest pushers of SirCakez being scum. In fact, the most points about SirCakez being scum originated from grapes at key times. And critically, grapes was suspicious of other players...yet instead of pursuing those other players (most of which were town), grapes ended up pursuing SirCakez. If grapes is scum, this was a bus.
Shiro voted SirCakez as well. 2273 says it's sheeping the wagon. 2295 contained the vote, 2471 further supported his death, a followthrough from 2468. Now granted, that's about it for Shiro in regards to SirCakez. However, the fact remains, if Shiro is scum, this was in fact a bus.
While Fuzzy's slot didn't vote SirCakez, Seraphim pushed SirCakez as being scum. 1189 is the post in particular. You do get him voting SirCakez's counterwagon, McMenno, so if scum he didn't bus. But he clearly was at least in support of SirCakez's death.
Reasonably Rational made a case against SirCakez. Now, I find that this case was superfluous. It wasn't needed. It wasn't necessary. It was excessive. It was something which blatantly looks like it was done to look good. But regardless. The fact remains that Reasonably Rational did, indeed, vote for SirCakez. (Twice.) Meaning, if RR is indeed scum...they were in fact bussing.

So the point I am trying to get across here is...
There was basically no counterwagon to SirCakez. All the flipped scum made no effort whatsoever to save SirCakez. In fact, two of the three non-SirCakez scum (DGB had no way of knowing the scumteam at this point and thus doesn't count) were explicitly in FAVOR of SirCakez's death, even though they did not in fact bus via their votes.
What that means is...basically, the scum didn't defend SirCakez. At all. In any way, shape, nor form. The scumteam let SirCakez die.

The one. And ONLY way. This would be false. Is if Almost50 were scum...yet by virtue of this trend, I find it pretty damn overwhelmingly likely that Almost50, if scum, would not have so strongly defended SirCakez. The rest of the scumteam sure wasn't! They were allowing SirCakez to die. They were encouraging SirCakez's death. So while this may seem like it's an unusual conclusion, what I get from Day One is that Almost50's defense of scum is ironically proof that he cannot himself be scum. Because the entire scumteam knew SirCakez was going down. The entire scumteam allowed him to die. The entire scumteam made no effort to resist his death whatsoever.

Ergo, Almost50 is town because he DID.

Now! Granted. This makes no comment on the four who DID have either implicit or explicit bussing of SirCakez. grapes, Shiro, Fuzzy/Seraphim, and RR all have reasons why they COULD be the scum who bussed. For that, all you can really do is read HOW it was done, and draw conclusions from it.
Looking at grapes's "bus", I don't see that as ever coming from a scumbuddy. Not with how it was done.
Looking at Shiro's "bus", I see the sheep vote as

theoretically

possible from scum, but

incredibly

unlikely. Scum who admit they are sheeping when they bus a scumbuddy? Not exactly something which'll earn them a ton of towncred. It's basically them ADMITTING their vote is worthless. There's nothing to be gained from it as well.
...Also, Shiro being scum requires two scum alive and FUCK that.

So really. For me it comes down to a simple choice: was Seraphim's distancing-without-bussing the scum...
...Or was RR's awkward-overjustification the bus?

From the actions themselves, I'll admit there's no way to tell. I go back and forth on Seraphim, from "that fits the pattern for scum" to "no fucking way is that EVER gonna be the scum". (Meaning I can't lock down an answer one way or another from just that posting.) On RR, it's more like "eh, it's POSSIBLE that's town?" and "Yeah that's just scum". Which I do go back and forth between.

So from there, it involves judging the slots as a whole from their actions elsewhere in the game.
And from there, weeeeeeeeeeeelllll......

mastin2 · Sun Jan 01, 2017 2:34 pm

In post 11951, grapes wrote:Hey guys. Stopping assume scum is town for bad reasons!

Yeah! My thoughts exactly!

mastin2 · Sun Jan 01, 2017 2:37 pm

Like...do you want me to go through my three-page iso and quote literally everything I find relevant?
Because at this point I can't see what else I can do.
I've explained why I feel everyone else is town. Nobody's responded to my reasons for players being town. They've just dismissed it.
I've explained why I feel Reasonably Rational is scum. People have cherrypicked, nitpicked, details they disagree with, and been using that singular instance as if it dismisses the entire case.

mastin2 · Sun Jan 01, 2017 2:58 pm

(Incidentally, this is my second-longest solo game, and third-longest iso of all. The two games beating this one? Tales of you, hydraing with MafiaSSK even though I did the vast majority of our posting, and Sabotage Mafia Reloaded. Also, incidentally: this game just so happens to remind me of how much I had to pull hairs in order to get Cephrir lynched in spite of Cephrir having a fucking hider guilty on him. And ALSO how I was fighting oh so DESPERATELY to get AP lynched in Tales of You in spite of the cop innocent because I knew AP was a godfather there. Few things are more frustrating than knowing you are right and having to fight against literally the whole fucking town to get your way, especially when you...don't.)

mastin2 · Sun Jan 01, 2017 3:02 pm

(Sabotage Mafia also makes a great parallel to this game because in that game I gained IClike powers after N1, and yet in spite of me using them largely optimally, I was unable to be absolutely confirmed town. Also, because in that game while I had moments of good play I also had many moments of not-so-stellar play. Also also in that game, I suffered from apathy during certain moments--namely the sucky ones--which dragged my play down. Also, in spite of me being effectively conftown from D2 onward, I never got nightkilled even though there was every opportunity and reason for me to die. Very frustrating, that sensation.)

mastin2 · Mon Jan 02, 2017 8:11 pm

In post 11963, Almost50 wrote:I can tell you why you'll never be killed in THIS game before LyLo/MyLo though, but I'm guessing you're bright enough to deduce it all by yourself.

I've run the math there. Scum want me dead regardless of who they are, so I won't be. (My power doesn't work during mylo, so no matter what, I stop being of use alive.) YOU, on the other hand......

You've allied with S_S. Before that your powers were unknown to scum, I get that. But from then on they knew of that +2 lynch threshold. The question is: Why have the RR duo not tried to propose an alliance with you at any given time?

One, because doing so would be a scumclaim (they have no pretense of being able to speak to me thanks to my power disabling that, and their own ally power was stolen by Titus so the only reason they'd have for allying with me would be to gain access to said power), and two, because they had no intention of ever needing that increased lynch threshold. (Also, three: Yume more or less has known what my power was since D1. If Yume blabbered about it to RR--or even Skybird!--then scum would have known about it well before allying with Shadow_step. I told Yume my ally power was lynch related and many of the conditions for it.)

Sure, they've seen my increasing suspicion on them. But that suspicious doesn't mean a damn fucking thing if I can't actually get anyone to FOLLOW me, now, does it?

mastin2 · Mon Jan 02, 2017 8:45 pm

In post 9030, Reasonably Rational wrote:When I get the chance to talk to Drixx, we will be voting either Snarky or TWIE. From my perspective, both will, with a town flip, mostly clear another slot. With a scum flip, they will implicate another slot.

Prior to mastins revelation, TWIE was a townread of Drixxs, and Snarky a scumread, and given that I know varsoon doesn't like cops, I would be utterly unsurprised if there were numerous false positives in the game, I don't give much weight to the guilty. Personally, I'm more likely to vote snarky than TWIE, because I find masins request reasonable and that follows with my other heads reads, but I don't think Drixx has caught wind of the situation, so we'll see where he's at asap

In post 9097, Reasonably Rational wrote:Nobody KNEW grapes was town. There is a huge gulf between probtown by play and conftown cuz scum shot at them.

Snarky and twie lynches, if they flip town, both clear another slot (fuzzy in snarkys case, farside in TWIE's case), and implicate another slot if they flip scum...except TWIE's clear if town is actually weaker than snarkys clear on fuzzy. That, plus the recent information about twie makes it seem a lot more valuable to lynch snarky over TWIE.

In post 9124, Reasonably Rational wrote:
In post 9118, grapes wrote:What are your scumreads cerb?
Farside's at the top for the reason I just gave, along with a host of other things. TWIE is also a possibility because of the missing kill last night, but that's dependent upon varsoon and his answers to my question. The gems could have a traitor within who convinced them going into the night at -4 stress would somehow be beneficial, but I don't know which one that could be. I know who two of them are, but without knowing al three I can't judge which is most likely among all of them.
There's also a nonzero chance shiro is scum, considering he hasn't actualy done anything all game long.
Fuzzy is 90% town with snarkys flip (only way he's not is if his team deliberately let snarky live because they were afraid they would be lynched if they didn't have him around as a distraction), farside flip is most relevant for this particular scenario since she was, during the time the event was decided, the other most likely lynchee.

In post 9267, Reasonably Rational wrote:Fyi Mastin (and Shiro will corroborate) Titus set out an action plan, and the first point was lynching Farside, not TWIE. Sorting TWIE (not lynching him) was actually the fifth or sixth item.

In post 9553, Reasonably Rational wrote:VOTE: Farside22

^And relevant to that:

In post 9883, Varsoon wrote:
Farside22 (4):

ReasonablyRational
, Thefuzzylogic99, Creature, Almost50

TheWayItEnds (2):
Kraskaeaque, mastin2

Creature (2):
MagnaofIllusion, Farside22

TheFuzzyLogic99 (1):
Shadow_Step

Not Voting (4):
Shiro, grapes, randomidget, TheWayItEnds

In post 9950, Varsoon wrote:
Farside22 (3):

ReasonablyRational
, Thefuzzylogic99, Creature

Creature (3):
MagnaofIllusion, Farside22, Almost50

TheWayItEnds (2):
Kraskaeaque, mastin2

TheFuzzyLogic99 (1):
Shadow_Step

Not Voting (4):
Shiro, grapes, randomidget, TheWayItEnds

In post 9570, Reasonably Rational wrote:
In post 9566, MagnaofIllusion wrote:
General
– Chara absolutely wants TWIE to be the lynch today for doing no scum-hunting but being here to whine like a child.
@NC: there are 4 slots among the voters(if we exclude conftown and gems), who have one scum among them, and the rest will be confirmed as town once we find the scum in that group. I'm VERY sure that scum is Farside22, and would much prefer to create 3 more conftown today, than 1)create this same situation tomorrow, if we hit scum outside of the voters, or 2) mislynch+change that pool to a 50/50.

In post 9629, Reasonably Rational wrote:Looking at just that, the lynch pool for today should be {TWIE, Farside} as those were the top suspects of Titus and Mastin, plus Titus dying along with how Farside unilaterally and scummily ended the day yesterday was going to put her squarely in the crosshairs. I can't give you much of a case on TWIE because he hasn't posted a whole lot. That could go either way though because he tends to be a late game player. In my reads list to A50 I instructed him to relay our wish that TWIE be put under heavy pressure if he didn't start looking like he was invested and gamesolving by day 6.
I don't know what to make of his claim that he vigged Farside but she didn't die, and he doesn't seem the least bit interested in explaining it. Farside, on the other hand, opened the day demanding whomever had targeted her to claim. TWIE is the only person to have claimed to target her ... but it was with a kill. I'm pretty sure ascetic doesn't block kills? But then Farside said in post #9618 that she is "ascentic" (immune) from all action except being shot by scum. If Scum!Farside, then that post is just window dressing. If Farside is actually 3P, that sort of makes sense. Town!Farside is a miniscule possibility at this point and would require her to have intentionally game thrown, and I just don't see that being realistic.

In post 9643, Reasonably Rational wrote:That's mainly directed at you mastin2. The other two voting TWIE are the people we'd lynch instead of him, so I wouldn't expect them to csre. :p

In post 9722, Reasonably Rational wrote:Anyone else notice how the entire wagon on twie is people who would otherwise be lynched today (with the exception of mastin)?

(By the way everyone on said wagon at this point with the exception of me is already-flipped town.)

In post 9742, Reasonably Rational wrote:@Creature: obviously A50, myself, farside, and kraska. One scum flip in this group=3 conftown, unless there are 7+scum.

(Not TWIE related, but noteworthy all the same.)

In post 9782, Reasonably Rational wrote:And again, I freely admit to fearmongering, because you're all fucking idiots if you don't understand why an uncontrollable multivoter of unknown alignment CAN NOT BE IGNORED.
You say my fear is that she makes it easier to lynch scum towards lylo? Perhaps you forget that the majority of the game IS TOWN. Even if she were town, it will ALWAYS be more likely that she will enable a lynch on town, rather than one on scum.

(Also not TWIE-related, but also important to note.)

In post 9783, Reasonably Rational wrote:TWIE and Creature are the compromise lynches. I'll support either ones lynch, on the condition that farside waste the maximum number of points on whoever we lynch over each of the next couple days (including today), after establishing for certain who two agrees should be lynched.

In post 9804, Reasonably Rational wrote:Also, MoI, today should NOT be TWIE versus creature. It should be farside. Period. It coming to creature /twie is a result of your foolishness and stubbornness. There SHOULD be 5 votes on farside right now, the three already there and two from yourself and random.

In post 9902, Reasonably Rational wrote:Farside is, Creature probably is, TWIE might be, Shiro might be, Fuzzy likely isn't, mastin VERY likely isn't, MoI/Random are third party and who knows wtf they want, Grapes likely isn't(but ignoring TWIES claim, I have no objective reason to believe he's town, it's all "yeah looks town because he feels town because he just does"), S_S might be (I have a little trouble reconciling power level of a Goon versus what we've seen in flips from all sides).
Kraska needs more research on my part. Clearing the scum event is undeniably pro-town, the fact that she could only do so at negative stress is an indication that it's a scum power (see Skybird's strongman), but it's a stretch to think scum triggered the event just do kraska could clear it for town cred.

(Bonus points for shitty S_S defense!)

In post 10109, Reasonably Rational wrote:@Mastin: I've avoided joining any wagons other than farside's because I didn't want to enable her votes. NOW though, I think both other wagons are past the threshold, so a farside lynch is basically impossible without a bunch of unvoting, since she can just hammer either one.
With that said, your line of reasoning regarding TWIE makes a fuckton of sense, and Drixx did say that he wanted you playing the game and to get out of your way. I'll check in with him, but given his position that twie should be gamesolving by D6, and our proximity to said day,I'm pretty sure that Drixx will agree that TWIE is objectively the best lynch for today, EVEN in the face of the numerous reasons to suspect Creature.
VOTE: TWIE

Just some choice quotes from Reasonably Rational's iso I'd like to point out.

mastin2 · Mon Jan 02, 2017 9:10 pm

In post 8114, Reasonably Rational wrote:We want DGB+TWIE to continue their alliance tomorrow, assuming a snarky lynch here? We don't want farside allied with anyone, right?

In post 3580, Reasonably Rational wrote:DGB are both pretty null to me. I like DGBs recent involvemsnt, it's way more than I've ever seen her do...ever. makes me want her to be town.

(By the way, the original read was a scumread on D1.)

In post 3732, Reasonably Rational wrote:
In post 3721, Not Chara wrote:SirCakez's ability allowed him (and his team, later) to look for Jasper. i can't think of what this would indicate besides Jasper being the flavour of a traitor. (as she obviously is not a "Threat To Earth" if they would have to search for her) but the player with Jasper flavour could also in no way be aligned with earth.
if someone could think of a different thing Jasper could be, i am all ears. i brought this up because i hadn't seen it being spoken about, but there has been talk of a traitor between Klingoncelt and DGB.
Good point. That makes the whole "traitor" thing way more suspicious now because there was no reason to posit a traitor. That also raises this question: why on EARTH would we have helped and pushed for an SC lynch if we were on a scum team with him and his role was the role that finds what is presumably a traitor?

^By the way: RR's a flavor/mechanical champion, and they didn't think of this point earlier...why?
Also, with DGB having claimed traitor D1, the whole point about SirCakez's traitor-hunting ability was superfluous: since the scum knew there was a traitor, and knew DGB was claiming traitor, SirCakez's traitor-hunting ability was rendered redundant.

In post 4013, Reasonably Rational wrote:The DGB thing is so blatant and feels like it wouldn't have been necessary....

In post 4019, Reasonably Rational wrote:And DGB already claimed that she misunderstood, so there's no evidence of any ability to sabotage alliances...at least not as relates to you alliance with dgb. I sorta feel like your reasoning here is a reach.
The possibility if her legitimately being an actual traitor though, that's a reason for suspicion that's not wholly improbable, in the event that the traitor does not know the scum teams identify. Her inclusion of multiple abilities in her claim (one of which was ascetic, which she didn't publicly claim, and which discourages further checking) makes it easy for her to claim it waa "just a joke/gambit", though of course then the question is...what sort of gambit are you running that you made your claim ,meant to gather knowledge from a potential member of the scum team, implausible.

So, I ask DGB: what were you seriously trying to do amd why didn't you claim to be ascetic in the Prequel/D1?
I just don't think the whole dgb alliance thing has a good chance of being related to a plan to kill you.

In post 6387, Reasonably Rational wrote:
In post 6382, Titus wrote:Who is scum RR?
Probably fucking DGB except the fact that KC of all fucking people died last night looks a HELL of a lot like a shitty framing attempt aimed at DGB.

In post 6402, Reasonably Rational wrote:
In post 6401, Not Chara wrote:
In post 6395, Reasonably Rational wrote:@NC: what are you basing the DGB read off of exactly? I know there are some things, I've brought them up myself, but I'd like to hear your reasoning.
when i last ISOed her, i literally found no town evidence. the only scumhunting-ish behaviour is when she brings up lurkers promising to catch up (Cooldog) or Seraphim saying he was busy and would catch up the next day. and that isn't counting her behaviour in the topic with Klingon, because it's her in-thread behaviour that concerns me.
in between her reads posts, most of her content is ignoring major game events in favour of fluff responses. which aren't bad in and of themselves, but it's like she isn't concerned with engaging the thread at all.
All NAI for her, in my experience. I bitched on like D1 about her noncontribution in every game I've ever played with her.
Anything else?

In post 6409, Reasonably Rational wrote:Granted, the late ascetic claim was obviously not telling in mathblades case but they friggin LIED about having claimed it earlier, so...yeah.

(Aside from DGB defense this is a quite fine demonstration of how RR has consistently blamed the flipped town for "they lied!" the whole damn game to justify it never being their fault for being 'wrong'. It's always the other person's fault.)

In post 7722, Reasonably Rational wrote:And I'm not voting for dgb because if you do use your vote thing to lynch her, I want it to cost you as much as possible.

In post 7773, Reasonably Rational wrote:Something I just realized that sorta makes me want to reevaluate dgb, except for the fact that her play rarely makes sense to me, so maybe it would be a mistake to lend any weight to this: she didn't use her vote steal in a scummy way at all. Klingon regained her vote, so clearly she was capable of NOT stealing it/not revealing she could steal it...but all she did was take it early game and see who noticed the extra vote, claimed it, and then gave it back.
Why expose what is basically an I win card late game if she didn't have to? I mean sure, it's quite possibly lylo limited, but considering it requires someone ally with her, it could easily not be because it requires she be townread enough to get someone to ally with her in that situation.

^This one's golden.

In post 8431, Reasonably Rational wrote:DGB is obvscum from the second KC flipped as a Crystal Gem. Before that it was probscum.

(This description of "before, was probscum" sure doesn't seem to match RR's iso! I mean, I'm fucking quoting stuff showing how very-much-not-probscum RR was treating her.)

In post 7904, Reasonably Rational wrote:Was this slot 3p?
Subject: Mini 1730: Suikoden U-Pick GAME OVER
Varsoon wrote:
Brantz - Georg Prime
Vagrant (Allied Unification Army)

I don't expect you to forgive me.

He's got a hell of a history. In the Scarlet Moon Empire, he was 1 of the 6 Generals. In the Grasslands, he was an Ebony Moon Knight, and in Falena, he was a Royal Knight. He just threw it all away.

If you are the last surviving member of the Allied Unification Army (Town), you will receive a winning victory as if you were a third-party survivor.

You can even curse me if you want to. I can take it.

You win the game when all threats to the Allied Unification Army has been defeated and at least one Allied Unification Army player is alive

Mod Note: I realize this may be up for debate in post-game, but I do not consider this role to be bastard ala 'mid-game alignment-change'.
This is due to the fact that the player is aware of their optional win condition and that the player's alignment will always be 'Town'.
[/spoiler]

Not related to DGB, but this shows that Reasonably Rational's ranting about farside's wincon is utter bullshit, justsayin'.

mastin2 · Mon Jan 02, 2017 9:26 pm

In post 864, Reasonably Rational wrote:Now ... Varsoon does like to change things up as a mod so I wouldn't go so far as to say Skybird automatically must be scum ... but I sure as hell am not going to assume town after what happened in the original game.

In post 2308, Reasonably Rational wrote:I have absolutely no feelings about Skybird at all, which is basically how I always feel about her posting.
I'll look at her ISO after I finish SC's, but she's generally fairly low impact on the game so I rarely actually ISO dive her.

In post 2506, Reasonably Rational wrote:Skybird ISO
So far, nothing jumps out as particularly noteworthy though. I haven't seen any pressure from her on those she's suspicious of to sort these questions, but I believe that's pretty standard for her. :-/

In post 2678, Reasonably Rational wrote:Skybird ISO(previous post included in this one)
Super minor town read overall. I see attempts to put things together when she's here, even if she's not doing it too much.
@KC: Do you believe that DGB is a scum traitor and she sincerely thought you were scum, and that as the traitor, she was willing to reveal herself in a PT which we were warned may be visible to unknown individuals in such a blatant fashion?

In post 6053, Reasonably Rational wrote:Town/unlikely to be aligned with scum: (important distinction)
Titus
Klingoncelt
mastin2
Yume
Farside22
Xkfyu(this is because of a realization I had about the potential meaning of some things he's said which I won't be revealing)
Firebringer <<bubbled by gems in a way that could have resulted in his death apparently, but did not. This implies certain things to me.
Skybird <<< PT with steven
killthestory <<<fake IC claim
So yeah.
The people above are unlynchable yo.

^This, in spite of earlier:

In post 2629, Reasonably Rational wrote:we used that same flawed logic to lose SU 1, except we had EVEN MORE REASON to think scum wouldn't possibly be given confirmation of Stevens identify than you do, and we were STILL wrong.
Don't be us. Don't close your mind to the possibility.
Evaluate Skybirds play on its own merit
.

...What changed?

In post 6777, Reasonably Rational wrote:Elaborate on Skybird please.

In post 7805, Reasonably Rational wrote:I didn't put any time into the game last night really, and your points require actual thought to digest. the assumption of guilt on the part of skybird for mechanical reasons seems short-sighted. Given that steven is a third party, there is an elegance to there being both a scum slot and a town slot given access to the slot, but there's obvious problems with the fact that such would be a near duplication of circumstances in the first SU, as well as the fact that skybird as town dosent actually have any mechanical arguments against it...it's just that there is an elegance argument in favor of scum+town access to steven.

(This Skybird defense is particularly important if my memory isn't betraying me and RR was the player saying Skybird was the scum being set up for the endgame.)

Just some food for thought.

mastin2 · Mon Jan 02, 2017 9:49 pm

In post 6432, Reasonably Rational wrote:Practically half of foxbird iso includes mention of exams and illness.

In post 6427, Reasonably Rational wrote:@kraska: walk me through scum!shadow when you get back, using JUST shadows posts. The prior occupants of the slot claimed illness and exams to explain their lack of participation, so I'm not particularly interested in any argument based on their play/lack thereof. Shadows play has seemed to be...acceptable.

In post 6440, Reasonably Rational wrote:Yeah, I'm basing my appraisal wholly on shadow_step. Lurker scumreading lurkers is like meaningless. It's hypocritical but doesn't mean anything, and if anything should be expected. If someone is lurking and lazy/busy, who else can you actually make a case against without having to put time into the push? Seems to make sense to me that lurkers would naturally lean towards scumreading other lurkers, if for no other reasons than to distract from themselves and because the pushes can be made with minimal effort.

In post 7773, Reasonably Rational wrote:Yeah, that's the main problem I have with your case kraska. I asked you to make a case on shadow using JUST his iso, not foxbirds, and I don't believe you ever did so.
Now, making that case is going to be easier now, because as far as I can tell all he's done is respond to you tunneling him, and ignore my question about whether or not he's fully caught up, but stil, the bulk of the negative sentiment towards the slot comes from, as far as I can tell, Foxbirds exams+illness.

In post 9067, Reasonably Rational wrote:Pedit: I mean, realistically if he just said it's kinda like an IC, what exactly were you expecting? What he did is far from an IC (and pretty fucking anti-town tbh, since I don't actually see ANY positive effect from him telling scum that he's a VT), but I can't imagine what else he could have been referring to. "Like an IC" seems to mean publicly, mod confirmed reveal of something related to his role, and there's basically nothing role related that could be "revealed" which would confirm his alignment.

In post 9171, Reasonably Rational wrote:
In post 9165, kraskaesque wrote:my scum pool is twie, shadow and maybe shiro
i wont even consider a farside wagon until i see these three flip or if farside proves, once again, to be antitown enuff to warrant a PL
Are you scum? Because you seem to be entirely disconnected from reality here.
And you want to see three flips before you'll even consider farside? So that's what... six more dead? So basically you are demanding that we go to what could be MYLO before you'll deign to consider lynching the scummiest player in the game? Seriously?

(kraska actually had two scum in there, and refused to attack farside.)

In post 10332, Reasonably Rational wrote:
In post 10321, grapes wrote:Who do you think is scum?
Without doing any analysis accounting for twies flip, Creature/Farside. I need to look at the wagons yesterday and see if there was an opportunity for farside to hammer creature and spare TWIE to determine whether such a team is even possible. After them are kraska/shadow/fuzzy, who all have weak reason to be considered more likely town than not.

In post 10337, Reasonably Rational wrote:Kraskas towniness comes from the the low likelihood of scum using her powers to neutralize their own event, an event which would have forced town to no lynch, and by her power not being used to enable skybirds strongman.

Shadows comes from the fact that a scum goon seems unlikely in a role madness game, and because skybird, who had an investigative ability, allying with them on D1 doesn't make sense if they were scum.

Fuzzys comes from his event usage, and is probably the weakest of the three, given that we now know at least one of the likely lynches on that day, if not for snarky, was definitely scum.
Shiro knew what I knew, that is, that a kill on MoI wouldn't work, so I can't see a scum team which included shiro taking a shot at MoI without the benefit of -4 stress. It's not impossible that they did I guess, because the information we had didn't say EXACTLY what would happen, just that MoI would be able to continue playing and maybe they hoped he'd be stumped or something, but it seems really unlikely.

(^One of these things is not like the others~)

In post 11139, Reasonably Rational wrote:There exists a scenario in which tomorrow could be LYLO or if the scum have an event left or some extra kill available, we could simply face game over. That's what we've been talking to Random about and trying to organize things in the game to prevent. I'll lay out what our plan is, which Random evaluated the totality of and the logic of and agreed we probably were right (in terms of worst case and how to avoid it):

1.) Farside is an unreliable narrator. She has been caught in one lie, at least, and all we actually know about her is her demonstrated abilities and her claims. So the first part of the plan was to force Farside to prove her personal win at 20 points claim as quickly as possible.
2.) Point one has some impact on Creature; however, I'm not sure why on earth Farside would LIE about who she blocked from killing her, so unless someone can provide a motive there, it's probably a legit guilty.
3.) I've spent a good deal of time going through a couple of ISOs today. One of them is Shadow_Step. I got Cerb to do some digging through it as well on his phone, and we both came to the same conclusion. Out of the pool of suspects, he's the one we think is most likely to flip scum after Creature.
4.) There has been some question about Fuzzy and people want to see him demonstrate his vig. Our plan ensures that nothing can stop his vig shot as long as we successfully ally. Given that our plan involves giving him a loaded gun that can't be stopped, we also planned to give him enough of an infodump and analysis of the situation that he would agree to leash to a consensus decision of whom to shoot
with Mastin, MoI and Random being the ones to decide
(Conftown, Crystal Gems ... should be obvious). We suggested Shadow already to Random to pass on to MoI tonight; however, he's been brought up now as a possible lynch or vig shot and so it doesn't make sense to keep that hidden any longer.

In short, we want to eliminate as many possible threats as possible expending the least possible resources. If anyone remains unconvinced, we already put together a plan to test her claim and to also test Fuzzy's claim in such a way that there is no out if the vig shot doesn't materialize.

I'm not really good at swaying people like Titus or Mastin, so I just ask that you please consider following the plan. I'm pretty sure that Creature or shadow lynched, Farside probably outed as a liar and lynched tomorrow (when we can ensure she cannot escape it) and a posited honest!fuzzy shooting Shadow/Creature is going to result in 2 scum flips and a 3P flip and hopefully game over, we win. There exists some reasons to posit an additional scum, which we discussed with Random and which he can relay to you tonight MoI.

There's so much about this post which is important. Placing Creature in the spotlight above others when it was proven farside's roleblock couldn't block the scum's faction kill, and her "ascetic"/BP COULD and that she got a point with nobody claiming to have targeted her and thus WAS the scum nightkill and therefore there was no mechanical reason to suspect Creature. Bringing up paranoia about lylo. Claiming farside as an unreliable narrator (when literally EVERY thing she claimed was proven true). The plan to have Fuzzy shoot Shadow_step, and then having that changed midway through. Rather critically, AGREEING TO HAVE FUZZY'S SHOT BE THE CONFTOWN CONSENSUS (MoI/mastina).
Reasonably Rational deviated from their own fucking plan. And also, they lied about not being good at swaying people. You need only look at the game results. They swayed Fuzzy to vig farside. They've swayed people to not vote them.

In post 11189, Reasonably Rational wrote:I'm sticking to our plan. Plus ... something tells me that Shadow isn't going to eat rope today. But ... he can't dodge a vig shot can he?

HE CAN IF YOU FUCKING TELL FUZZY TO HOLD HIS FIRE WHICH YOU

DID

!
This reasoning for not lynching Shadow sucked, too, but that's beside the point.

mastin2 · Mon Jan 02, 2017 9:53 pm

Oh yeah. Let's not forget this.

In post 10877, Reasonably Rational wrote:Now as I see it, the scum pool is (most to least likely in my view): (Creature, TFL, Shiro, Grapes, S_S with Farside as a paranoia prospect).

Creature
- Ummm... really obvious.

TFL
- This should also be obvious I think.

Shiro
- Obviously skimming the game. Given that he missed us citing things Titus said and asking for him to confirm (and then bizarrely asked us to confirm something that isn't there), he's not really plugged in. That feels like demoralized scum (and could explain the MoI shot if Shiro is scum: if he missed the post outlining MoI's abilities or just skimmed it and missed the protection). It's also possible that it could just be lazy town assuming a win given our strong position.

Grapes
- I am tempted to put Grapes before Shiro. There's no real reason to read him either way, except for the Historical Fiction event which indicated he was targeted night one; however, there are two glaring failure points with that being used as a clear. Firstly, the event was from TWIE and TWIE chose which submitted actions to turn into truth, so it's possible that TWIE simply lied so it would look like Grapes was targeted by the scum team as an attempt to get him "cleared". The second failure point is that DGB had the ability to re-direct the scum kill. Then there's the fact that Grapes is literally coasting along at this point on this "clear" and my "gut" is bothering me a bit. (As a note, I'm not a "gut" person as I believe "gut" is just your brain telling you something is wrong but ... you get the point).

S_S
- I have a really hard time believing that the scum team were given a goon in this game. That seems absurd. Almost certainly he got stuck with the token vanilla townie slot in a role madness game. To be fair, though, that's literally the only reason to posit him as town.

In post 10884, Reasonably Rational wrote:
In post 10883, Creature wrote:
In post 10877, Reasonably Rational wrote:S_S - I have a really hard time believing that the scum team were given a goon in this game. That seems absurd. Almost certainly he got stuck with the token vanilla townie slot in a role madness game.
That's a good point, it'd be too sad if roles are alignment-independent.
Of course roles aren't alignment specific, in the general sense. Here's the thing though: look at the power we have in the town and gems factions. Please argue how a goon makes sense when stacked against that power. I assume the point will then be clear.
That said, setup spec is not a really good reason to post someone as town, generally. There are unfortunately several players alive who have seemingly gone out of their way to avoid committing to anything at all, so if that's the only thing I have to work with, that's the only thing I can use to sort.
Feel differently? Want to point me to something you think I missed? That would actually be useful, as opposed to snarky pot shots that don't help at all.

mastin2 · Mon Jan 02, 2017 9:59 pm

The point I'm getting at here, is.
Reasonably Rational has, consistently, across the whole fucking game. Been defending scum for shitty reasons. Only when said scum are given really fucking strong reasons to be scum does RR's opinion shift...and even then, RR has shown consistent hesitancy to actually lynch the scum. Reasonably Rational went from a weak townread on Skybird from play to having Skybird as unlynchable off of mechanics,

in spite of earlier advocating against doing exactly that

. Reasonably Rational's stance on DGB was all over the board. RR consistently defended TWIE, until well after the guilty on him and only voted TWIE when there was no other choice. (Their vote, prior to that, was on farside, and they had also considered voting Creature before TWIE.) When given the choice between Creature and Shadow, they selected Creature. They saved Shadow_step off of mechanical reasons and mechanical reasons alone: "I don't think there'd be a simple goon on the scumteam".

Reasonably Rational talks a lot. Does a lot of talking, here and there. But when you look at what those actions actually are accomplishing, what you see is that they have--consistently!--been furthering a scum agenda. Consistently, as of D2 at the very latest.

mastin2 · Mon Jan 02, 2017 10:07 pm

(Fun fact, btw: of the 8 alive, my post count total, which is getting close to 600? Is only the fourth-highest. RR's got the highest number of those alive, but Titus--when combined with her hydra--still has the lead on them in spite of her having been dead for over 75 days. I have less posts than Firebringer and Not Chara, who both died over 80 days ago. But I can tell you, right here and now: in spite of me having far less posts than grapes, RR, or Almost50, I am far outpacing them in terms of posting right now because I'm apparently the only one who gives a shit about the game and is putting in the time and effort to actually show my homework.)

mastin2 · Mon Jan 02, 2017 10:47 pm

In post 1059, grapes wrote:mastin2/Yume/farside22/Obi-Wan Kenobi/Creature/SnarkySnowman/killthestory/randomidget/McMenno/Skybird/Almost50
Seraphim/CooLDoG/Firebringer/DrippingGoofball
TheWayItEnds/Xkfyu/Foxbird/Shiro/Klingoncelt
kraskaesque/Not Chara/Reasonably Rational/SirCakez

^As far as early readslists goes, this is a good one. SirCakez we allllllllll know about by now. I'm not even gonna bother showing you grapes's SirCakez posting. But in that second tier, you get TWIE and Foxbird. What would you call that tier? Null? Nullscum? Nulltown? It can't be town. And it's not at all unreasonable. At this stage, grapes's reads were what I'd call: pretty damn sharp.

In post 1570, grapes wrote:mastin2/Yume/farside22/Obi-Wan Kenobi/McMenno/Almost50/Creature/SnarkySnowman/killthestory/randomidget/Skybird/Seraphim/Firebringer
DrippingGoofball/Foxbird/TheWayItEnds/Shiro
Xkfyu/CooLDoG/Klingoncelt/kraskaesque/Reasonably Rational/SirCakez/Not Chara

Okay so it's pretty safe to assume that they're in the null pile, but this is still pretty good.

In post 1645, grapes wrote:Town - mastin2/Yume/farside22/Obi-Wan Kenobi/Almost50/Skybird/Creature/SnarkySnowman/killthestory/Seraphim/Firebringer
Meh - randomidget/DrippingGoofball/Foxbird/TheWayItEnds/Shiro/kraskaesque/CooLDoG
Scum - McMenno/Xkfyu/Reasonably Rational/Klingoncelt/SirCakez/Not Chara

Made more explicit ^here.

In post 6963, grapes wrote:skybird might be scum guys

A bit later, yes, but still much more than can be said of RR's view on Skybird.

In post 7366, grapes wrote:
In post 7359, Skybird wrote:-snip-
this is like... a low-hanging fruit basket

In post 1050, grapes wrote:So far my scummish pile is foxbird/shiro/klingon. They all feel like they're coasting and I haven't seen much from them that gives me any reason to think that they're trying solve the game at all. Klingon is the worst because she's made the most posts and they've all been noise outside of a few bad questions and a forced SR on fire which doesn't feel like something she believes in.
kraskaesque is still scum because the only thought process readily in their iso is that thing about mcmenno which a lot of people have already said is pretty black and white. like that's it as far as depth of thought goes with regards to scumhunting. which is strange because they have given a readslist (with all townreads ftr, which is already yuck) A line in here that I did kinda like at first glance; calling out RR and obi for assuming scum-motive to misinterpreting what "lone scum" meant, which sorta starts the car a bit as far as getting a sense that they're thinking about the game, but the thought doesn't really go anywhere.
Not chara's probscum like anyone who thinks that obi looks worse from the back nforth is either bad or scum. tvt is a believable stance. Just doesn't feel like how town goes about trying to get a read on someone. It's a boring reverse engineer of Almost's question that starts the dialogue at around the same place it already was when almost asked the question to the rest of the game.
Don't like RR much. They haven't made their presence known at all and I found the early push on firebringer bad. and an angle scum probably take tbh. The classic; you're wrong about something, paragraph about why you're wrong. And what exactly is firebringer supposed to explain here? It's literally just a difference of opinion on experience with how another player goes about the game. He's asking him to dig his own grave pretty much. Transitions into a full scumread with ever evolving shallow reasons. "You're trying to look town" "You're making up reasons" The conviction to the read feels too strong for what the conversation is about. A lot of talking about games that aren't this one. Like a whole shitton. Iso also has a good amount of pandering exessevily to obi/mastin. All around selfish-vibe going on here with cerb specifically. Shiro is only scumread. Shiro shows up to interact and response is the most previous quote. Not - "what's your reads" "what do you think about my read on you" - or etc. Just "pretend people are scumreading you for silly reasons" - end of conversation Obvious question that cerb would like answered but doesn't care what the answer is.
Sircakes has just been blatant scum all game and I'm down for a wagon there but I'd like some people to explain what RR's done that's town to them.

Here was an early push against Foxbird/Shadow_step. Also included all other pushes found in that post for context, for the sake of full disclosure.

In post 6613, grapes wrote:dgb/farside are both good votes
lesser scumreads are kraska/shadow/rr
xk if im wrong on a couple or more of those
chara/shiro i could make a pretty compelling case either way

^Was an early Shadow pusher as well.

In post 6792, grapes wrote:
@Shadow
- What's your favorite flavor of rope?

^It's hard to get more explicit than this.

In post 7756, grapes wrote:shadow/kraska could be scum/scum just based on how focused they are on being pointless towards one another for no reason.

(I mean working against grapes is that in the pair grapes voted kraska rather than Shadow, butstill...)

In post 9189, grapes wrote:Shadow_Step - meh
Shiro - meh
Farside22 - good lynch
Reasonably Rational - wouldn't lynch today
Kraskaeaque - good lynch
TheFuzzylogic99 - wouldn't lynch today
Creature - wouldn't lynch today
randomidget - meh
TheWayItEnds - good lynch
Just completely off the top of the dome. I know twie looks pretty bad especially since he didn't vig I mean he might've been blocked but really it's getting more and more convenient.

^An earlyish supporter of TWIE's death.

In post 9395, grapes wrote:Shadow having fuzzy as a top scumread in this gamestate is either refreshing or scum wanna read that iso first. Fuzzy's been off the radar a minute.

^More on Shadow.

In post 11056, grapes wrote:Writing off shadow for being in an alliance with skybird is dumb because farside set those two up pregame. It isn't like they went out of their way to ally together.
Now if sky made an effort to try for someone different then maybe.

In post 11060, grapes wrote:
In post 10840, Shadow_step wrote:For me to be scum you have to assume scum were making ultra sub optimal plays with a powerful PR of theirs. Kind of like rolecopping your own buddy as scum.
Not even within the same ballpark. You're talking about private actions you can change at the drop of a hat vs. actions that need to be coordinated publicly within a short time frame. To supplement; I've seen skybird roleblock confirmed town as town before.

In post 11070, grapes wrote:
In post 11001, Shadow_step wrote:This actually makes sense. Farside keeps changing her story too many times. Do you think lynchproof+deathproof makes sense as a town role?
Ew. You think that makes as a scumrole? Did we also forget the 5-voter?

In post 11073, grapes wrote:The people who I'm interested in looking into when I've got more time are shiro and shadow.

In post 11132, grapes wrote:Yea I keep changing my mind. Creature's only really a good lynch in my mind because essentially the entire game thinks he's scum but calling out the thread on how forced the lynch actually is isn't odd it's the fact of the matter. I mean let's be fair people are trying to push it like there's a guilty on him when farside isn't even voting creature to my memory.
Also considering I was in the midst of explaining to you why shadows deathtunnel on him is fake; if shadow flips scum do you believe that would be a bus?

In post 11133, grapes wrote:VOTE: Shadow
Magna explain why you sticking me in an alliance with 2 scumfucks.

In post 11134, grapes wrote:Keep forgetting to ask; why are you townreading shadow?

In post 11136, grapes wrote:If we lynch creature and he flips town, shoot shadow and use capslock super bold tags. If we lynch shadow and he flips scum, shoot shiro with capslock super bold tags.

A bit of a long one filled with quotes, so I'll just hyperlink to 11137 as another one grapes raised against Shadow.

In post 11165, grapes wrote:Guys let's lynch shadow feels like a scumflip.

In post 11174, grapes wrote:If I made a case on shadow_step would you consider voting him? You're literally calling him town because mastin thinks he's town.

In post 11175, grapes wrote:We have like 3ish days. Maybe a creature flip wakes up half the game and we start curing some of this apathy but a mislynch is a mislynch. I'd really like for some people to refresh on shadow and shiro as well.
The number one reason why I think a lot of you are writing off shadow is because he would have to be a goon or w/e. But the utility of a goon that can confirm itself as goon is right in the name.

In post 11179, grapes wrote:
In post 11177, Creature wrote:Doubt town would wake up after they mislynch someone tunneled since Day 5.
We will. Kraska lynch is what woke me up. That and taking a vacation from this game for a week or so. Shadow scum flip gives you a town-case, though. Which is about the same result except we don't waste a mislynch. I'm just terrible at explaining reads sometimes.

In post 9356, grapes wrote:And if there's 5 twie's the last.

In post 9666, grapes wrote:Okay and now we get to about where I started actually posting again but I'll reread that (probably skim the farside vs. rr stuff) but my vote is most likely going on TWIE. I'm ISOing him right now and he doesn't mention shit about shooting me at all so someone please direct me where the talks of that came from.

In post 9833, grapes wrote:Twie isn't a bad lynch.

In post 9975, grapes wrote:VOTE: TWIE

In post 9981, grapes wrote:twie/kraska/shiro
That's where I want the votes.

In post 9991, grapes wrote:
In post 9988, farside22 wrote:I'd love a Shiro lynch and see that flip scum after everything from day 2, but after snarky I'm twice shy about any confidence in it.
Then vote twie.
I was wrong on snarky too for a while he's tough to read wouldn't beat yourself up about it.
Shiro hasn't done anything town in over a month.

In post 10067, grapes wrote:I don't know I feel like I'd much rather lynch the ones who've ceased all gamesolving.
shiro/kraska/twie
Like why make it more difficult than it needs to be.

In post 9668, grapes wrote:
In post 9314, TheWayItEnds wrote:
vote: farside

i hate you guys for making me break my not casting a vote streak
Wow you literally haven't voted at all? This is why we always snipe the not voting seats.

Need more?

In post 3420, grapes wrote:3) Is DGB one of your buddies?

(Okay so admittedly this was on D1.)

In post 6613, grapes wrote:dgb/farside are both good votes

In post 8309, grapes wrote:Which brings us back to the game needing flips. Like, DGB lynch wouldn't get any argument from me. Farside either really; but that's primarily because I'm always skeptical of the age-old "i can win with town"
Meh, just kinda wish we were "caught up" I guess is the best phrase I can think of.

In post 8490, grapes wrote:VOTE: DGB

And this is just the non-SirCakez stuff which can be found with a quick control-F of grapes's iso.

It is no exaggeration to say he has in fact pushed all the scum in the game. Sometimes for crazy reasons. Sometimes not as primary pushes. But always there, pushing scum.

mastin2 · Mon Jan 02, 2017 10:56 pm

Like, grapes's iso is the polar opposite of Reasonably Rational's. grapes has been acting a lot like me in a game: pushing strong at times, being uncertain at others. Being utterly apathetic, lost, and confused at some times, being absolutely confident at others. Pushing some crappy logic at some points, and at other points being ridiculously on-point. Raising good points a plenty, and not so good points. Naming plenty of scum players as scum, but also naming plenty of town players as scum. Occasionally (but not often) seeing a scum player as town, but at a later point reevaluating and deciding that initial assumption could be wrong, then transitioning to scumreading the scum. This pattern is consistent throughout the whole game. Seeing scum as neutral, then when looking at them, continuing to move them down. While grapes had a particular confirmation bias (namely, kraskaesque), grapes's reads aside from that never stopped improving. And grapes honed in and refined those reads, attacking scum at key points, key parts, of the game.

grapes's iso is that of a town player who doesn't have the perfect picture, so has some scummy parts, yes. grapes, not knowing the scumteam, is imperfect, and thus made mistakes. But grapes's posts haven't been pushing a scum agenda. Where in grapes's posting is grapes pushing for a scum win? Where was grapes's plan in all of the above? What was grapes doing that entire time? Faking it all and bussing scumbuddies for the lulz? Because grapes sure as fuck wasn't bussing them for the towncred. grapes hasn't been trying to say how town he is. grapes has just been doing his own thing.

mastin2 · Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:13 pm

Magna's V/LA should be ending soon.
And I'm really hoping that he shows some semblance of sanity here and realizes that,

yes

, I am right. Yes, I am raising good points. And, yes. The people who are saying I am wrong aren't saying why I am wrong, or when they do, are taking a small part of my argument and strawmanning it to be a representation of the whole thing. "Oh that one part of your argument is wrong, so therefore the whole thing must be wrong." That's what I'm dealing with, and right now I'm hoping, PRAYING, MoI has the capability to read what I have written.

YES, I know it's long. Yes, I know it's a lot of quotes, and it's a lot of walls, and it's a lot of text. But I'm trying everything, here. Shorter posts. Longer ones. Anything to get someone to actually listen. REALLY listen. Not pretend to listen. Not say they are listening, and then do fuckall about it. To truly listen to what I am saying. I've raised a lot of points. A LOT of points. Most of them have gone unchallenged. Like, not a few of them. Literally the vast majority of them haven't been questioned, haven't been touched.

Fuck!
I'd be perfectly content with Magna coming in and questioning me on aspects of my case!
I'd even be okay with MoI coming in here and, bit by bit, pointing out what he thinks I'm wrong about, what he disagrees on.
I mean. I'd be disappointed he's not siding with me when I know I'm right. But at least he'd have taken effort to show why he's not siding me. At least he would be able to show why he thinks I am wrong. (Even though I'm not.)

I really don't know how much more I can show you.
I am firmly against the idea of there being two scum left. One, that is propaganda, paranoia, planted in your brains by Reasonably Rational, who have flat-out admitted as such. Two, it goes against the flavor. Three, it goes against setup balance. Four, the mechanics don't fit. Five, the players who would be this alleged second scum don't actually fit as the second scum. And six, as an extension of that...there just isn't the interactions between the possible scum to suggest that there is more than one alive.

I am firmly in the belief that grapes's attitude has consistently shown itself to be town.
I am firmly of the belief that Reasonably Rational has propagated a scum agenda with their actions.
I've shown you snapshots of grapes's iso which are good for interactions, but aside from that, I can also show you plenty of things grapes has said which don't feel fake.
I've shown you snapshots of RR's iso which are godawful for interactions, but aside from that, I have also shown you plenty of stuff from their iso which is bad and even contradictory at times, something which runs contrary to their fundamental nature when they are town. (They even scumhunt by consistency! And yet, RR has been so fucking inconsistent this game.)

Fuck, you need look no further than what each player is doing right now.
Grapes? "I know I am town. I recognize that people think I am scum, but I'm not. And you know who is? These people, here's why. You need to listen to me. Shut the fuck up, I don't care what you think about me, trust me these people are scum. When I am gone, you NEED to follow me on this. I know they are." Stubbornness. Pushing, regardless of rhyme or reason.
Almost50? "I know I am town. Go ahead and lynch me. grapes is scum, and I don't give a damn about anything else. I'm not budging. So go ahead and lynch me for this. I encourage it!" Stubbornness. Pushing, regardless of rhyme or reason.
Fuzzy? "I know I am town. That is all I know. I have ideas. I have thoughts. I am sharing with you my thoughts. I still think it possible these people are scum. And this is what I am doing with these thoughts." Pushing, regardless of rhyme or reason. With some stubbornness involved, albeit not as obvious.

Basically the only two not doing this are Shiro and RR, but Shiro!scum requires two scum. And what of RR?
"Hey. mastina is wrong. No, seriously. mastina is wrong. This is why mastina is wrong. Hey, look at how town we are! Yes, this proves mastina is wrong, because we are town. Oh and yeah, there are more than one scum. Did we mention mastina is wrong, and that we are town? Because yeah we are town. And mastina is wrong."

One of these things is not like the others.

mastin2 · Tue Jan 03, 2017 12:59 am

And if you think this is in any way an exaggeration? Let me walk you through EVERY Reasonably Rational post this phase.

In post 11512, Reasonably Rational wrote:@Mastin2: You're wrong. I'm not going to argue with you point by point, unless you really really insist. There are more important things to figure out, and, to be quite frank, a disgusting number of fairly obvious reasons why your position doesn't make sense, some of which have been mentioned in thread a couple times already.
What I need for you to do now, Mastin, is put on your mod hat. Look at the game. Look at what we know, the flips we've seen. Take in the totality of the game state, and the course of action parts of the setup and the flavor of the game essentially GUARANTEED town would take. Do that, and answer the question: Why would we EXPECT Farside to be a threat?

"Mastina, you're wrong. Also, this is why farside was supposed to be scum even though she was town."

In post 11522, Reasonably Rational wrote:
In post 11512, Reasonably Rational wrote:
What I need for you to do now, Mastin, is put on your mod hat. Look at the game. Look at what we know, the flips we've seen. Take in the totality of the game state, and the course of action parts of the setup and the flavor of the game essentially GUARANTEED town would take. Do that, and answer the question: Why would we EXPECT Farside to be a threat?

Requoting the same thing.

In post 11532, Reasonably Rational wrote:Mastin. You realize that if we were scum we had access to the same empowered shot that Fuzzy had access to, right? So why would we need Fuzzy at all? The rest of everything you're wall posting falls apart at that point.
Since you want to be stubborn, and since you state you believe only one scum remains, I'll ask you plainly: what in this game setup that you have seen so far makes it balanced? How do the scum handle the very large amount of slots that will never be lynched going by the assumptions we have used this game? Look at the scum power level, including the three kills they got by event. Now look at how many kills were stopped by town or gem powers/events. Now count up the slots which would never be lynched under any circumstance.
Every assumption you're making rests on a false foundation. You can walk us all the way up to the gibbet and put the rope on and pull the lever and when we flip town, all you'll have accomplished is completely wasting a day and pushing us a step closer to losing what
should be
a slam dunk.
Then there's a few other facts to consider, just as it relates to us:
1.) Our initial concern about Farside was that she would take her win on M/LYLO and hand scum a win. We decided then to try and give her that claimed win as fast as possible so that she couldn't do that (if telling the truth) or she would reveal it to be a lie (if she refused). She refused to take the win (which, if you do the math, she could have had yesterday, exactly as we said), and started throwing outright lies into her posts. That didn't jive with her claims, and pushed us into believing she was the answer to the balance issue. So there's no contradiction here Mastin. If you had been, you know,
playing the game
, like the rest of us, you would have seen that happen. Hell, if you had even properly read the thread, you would have seen it.
2.) The only reason that the game isn't over with a scum win right now is because we're not scum. The list of things scum walked into that we knew about is so long that positing a scum!us requires you to be claiming that we deliberately played against wincon numerous times. But we're not scum, and we were smart enough to work with only confirmed people and relay what we knew and leverage it, and the gems were also smart enough to make good moves that took advantage of the scum team's ignorance. So your attack about talking in PTs ... kinda falls flat.

So now we're left with a situation you need to re-evaluate seriously. We're town, and we're obviously town. I'm not the setup/mod genius you are, but I know enough to know that the amount of slots who could never be mislynched in this game is too high for there to be only one scum left and that's the only threat. Either there's extra scum with power we haven't seen yet, or there's another explanation. We thought Farside could be that other explanation and were wrong. After a long game of being right repeatedly, it would be cool if you didn't crucify us for being wrong once and instead actually pay fucking attention here.
Slots that would never be mislynched under the assumptions we've all made about this game, barring some kind of awful play: You, Yume, Gems (MoI, KC, Xykfu, Random, ?), Titus, a potential power copy of Titus as a 2nd IC - There's a couple more slots conditionally speaking. Kraska could have played more actively and obvtowned it up, for example, but we think that was intentional lurking to try and make it to endgame due to the ability to pop IC at LYLO thing. In any case, it's 8-10 slots in a 25 person game.
So the ball is in your court here. You can go back and review the game and realize that we have indeed been gamesolving all game long and that we did indeed have good reason to believe Farside was an extreme threat after she refused to take her claimed win con when we were tentatively viewing her as a lesser threat. You can realize that all the slots that scum could never get mislynched doesn't line up at all with the observed power level of everything we've seen. If you get that far, maybe you can help us figure this out before we see a game over and we lose post, because right now you're going to drive all of us off a cliff into a loss, and frankly we've worked way too hard for that.

"Mastina, you're wrong. We are town. This is why we are town. Also, this is why we were wrong about the setup, and are continuing to push this paranoia idea, even after we were wrong on farside, which we were totally justified on."

In post 11535, Reasonably Rational wrote:Except we gave reads and thoughts for how to proceed if we died every single day, and we even told Fuzzy to shoot us last night if he had any doubts, and then gave thoughts on how to proceed when he saw our flip. But you know ... buzzwords are good, right? (Especially when someone just pointed out that you are only considered clear because of something actual known scum said and did).

Okay. So this one was addressed to grapes. It's still saying the same thing though: "We're town, and this is why we are town."

In post 11538, Reasonably Rational wrote:Perfect example of scum sitting back and waiting for the tide to turn in their favor before magically showing up with a long post and lots of research to push their mislynch, just at the right time. Please don't be suckered by this obvious scumplay by Grapes. Like for real. Lynch this scummy shit on the spot. Obviously pre-prepared post coming in just at the right time to push a mislynch and re-direct any suspicion. Scum play 101 by someone who has spent the whole game doing the same kind of thing.
VOTE: Grapes
Thanks for scumclaiming Grapes.

First post of theirs which can be considered content. If you are extra-generous that is, in calling their OMGUS, "We're town being voted for!", "we're using buzzwords after having condemned grapes for using buzzwords", "we're invoking a double-standard for attacking grapes when mastina is doing the same thing and she's town", as being content. Like, to use a buzzword appropriately, this post was projecting: there is a player who has spent the whole game redirecting suspicion, but it sure as fuck isn't grapes; it's Reasonably Rational. But okay. Fair enough, this post was the first which wasn't "mastina is wrong, and we are town" type. I'll give it that much.

In post 11541, Reasonably Rational wrote:
In post 11539, Almost50 wrote:
In post 11536, grapes wrote:Who are you shooting if RR flips scum?
That's the interesting question.
That's interesting indeed.. how certain you are that the game has TWO scum left alive at this point. (Otherwise; if RR flips scum the game ends. Right??)
Interesting doesn't even begin to describe it. It's a scum slip. As far as I'm aware,
we
are the only people in the game who have even seriously considered that there might be more than 1 scum left, and I only just posted pointing that out to Mastin and urging her to consider the facts a short time ago. Grapes swooped in with an obviously prepared post to put the 3rd vote on us (and the vote is naked as a 2nd post to distract from the 1st post being pre-prepared), but then there's #11536 where Grapes has as an implicit assumption in the post that two scum remain.

Second non-defense post, and content, which is posting the ridiculously-absurd idea of a scumslip which is quite frankly a shitty argument beyond all shit which they should know better than as town. (I knew exactly what grapes meant with that statement, and it was not scum-inclined.) Especially since the only way for it to actually be a scumslip is if RR themselves are scum. (Grapes asked what Fuzzy would do if RR was shot and flipped scum. That can't be a scumslip if RR was shot and flipped town, by definition.)

In post 11542, Reasonably Rational wrote:Nice attempt at a save. Giving you genuine props. Devious play from start to finish.

Third post of that kind, and just about the only post of theirs I have no issues with. (It's an entirely neutral one: neither good nor bad, just there.)

In post 11553, Reasonably Rational wrote:So making multiple posts in a row in a panic is what? Keep up the buzzwords though. It's kind of amusing. I mean ... you basically scum claimed with the prepared post and the fake "oh crap I forgot to vote" follow up naked vote post, then contradicting your pre-prepared post a few minutes later. Do you want to tell us who your partner is and just surrender? There's no path to victory for you. Save us all the time?
P-Edit: But he totally made his partner's claim for the event "true" and cleared you, right Grapes?

Fourth, i suppose, but it's basically just restating what's already been said and is more on the defensive. (As grapes said, it was indeed flailing.)

In post 11561, Reasonably Rational wrote:
In post 11560, grapes wrote:Let me die like a man tomorrow if I'm wrong.
Just let me live one more day and I swear it will all work out, he says. LOL.

Five, but utterly fucking hypocritical given that Reasonably Rational is BEGGING for their life.

In post 11563, Reasonably Rational wrote:
In post 11562, TheFuzzylogic99 wrote:We are going with my plan bc its the best plan we have and town have been making too many mistakes
There's a glaring (like a gigantic halogen spot light glaring) problem with your plan. Let me know when you figure it out.

Fuzzy's plan was to lynch RR, vig grapes by the way. And that was actually a fine plan, until Fuzzy got clarification that he was indeed out of shots. The plan wasn't bad, in fact it was nearly identical to my own. So while this isn't a "mastina was wrong, we are town", it's a "Fuzzy, you're wrong", so close enough.

In post 11566, Reasonably Rational wrote:I'm attempting to prevent you throwing it away. We're town and just our mislynch alone is almost certainly not enough to cost the game. If you shoot another town tonight, then expect tomorrow to start with a scum win message. The only condition upon which I want to be saying "I told you so" to you is in the post game of a victory.

"We're town, and you're wrong." Also egregious, because Fuzzy's plan?

vigging RR's top suspect

.

In post 11591, Reasonably Rational wrote:@grapes: What case? The wall of VCA? Neither head of this hydra respects VCA(because we know that any competent player can easily manipulate it), so I'm not certain what sort of response you expected from us. We tunneled farside because it was CLEAR to us that she had to be a malevolent third party, period, and we were fighting against two conftown who REFUSED to even consider lynching her. In addition, who exactly was there left for us to scumhunt? We concluded A50 was town on D4. We concluded Shiro was town sometime shortly after that. We concluded Fuzzy was probtown after he didn't take the kill on Snarky. That leaves you, but again, the entire fucking game's assumption that scum!TWIE+scum!Skybird deliberately AVOIDED the opportunity to generate wifom AND gain information about town actions by 1) Skybird choosing to submit her true actions, OR 2) Skybird submitting some other actions, and TWIE choosing to change her actions to her real ones...and that's without even including the fact that you're almost certainly lapis, and a leftover, and thus have no reason to care who wins at all, AND legitimately make sense as a "potential" scum slot to balance out the double digit number of slots who were never getting lynched.

"You are wrong. We are clearly town, and were in the right...in spite of farside's flip proving we were wrong. Which was totally not our fault, by the way. It was totally hers. Also, in spite of saying there are two scum left, we're saying everyone except you is town."

In post 11592, Reasonably Rational wrote:(Wholly unrelated, but I just realized that this game has surpassed Smite as having the most posts of any game on site.)

Fluff post, but technically counts as number six.

In post 11602, Reasonably Rational wrote:
In post 11594, MagnaofIllusion wrote:
In post 11591, Reasonably Rational wrote:@MOI: A50's ability said any abilities could not fail. It did not specify whether that excluded factional abilities, and based on the verbiage used by the role PM's we've seen, I assume that means factional abilities were also empowered.
That's a pretty bad assumption that makes me wonder why you would just blindly assume such as opposed to asking like I did.
Because I don't have any factional abilities, and fuzzy had already demonstrated a claimed vig earlier in the game, and there was only one scum kill, so it's actually IRRELEVANT, because 1) If fuzzy's scum, and didn't have an additional shot to use, then we KNOW it was empowered because it worked on farside last night, and 2) If fuzzy's scum, and DID have an additional shot to use(and when I say additional shot, I mean a personal shot, rather than a factional one), then he used the one that A50's power would work on.
I'm confused by why you believe it actually matters? There was only one kill last night, when Fuzzy claimed he would vig, and the death was on the target he told A50 and myself that he would be targeting(which, btw, he didn't tell us until AFTER the deadline for action submission had passed iirc(I'll double check this)). That means one of three things happened. 1) Fuzzy is scum, and could not use both his vig shot and his factional kill 2) Scum CHOSE to skip the kill. 3) The scum kill failed.
If nobody expresses a reason for the scum kill to have failed, then 2 is most likely. If 2 occurred, it's MEANINGLESS, because A50 had already claimed, in thread, that he was going to be tracking last night. ANYONE in this game is smart enough to realize that as long as fuzzy didn't shoot them(which they obviously couldn't control unless they had an empowered roleblock or something), holding their shot would mean the kill he made would cause the game to go to a 4 man or 6 man mylo, as opposed to a 3 man or 5 man lylo...that is, in short that their kill that night would be a risk in exchange for sculpting the lylo playing field.
I'll ask Varsoon, to make sure(because you're right, I should have asked since I have access to a PT showing me what that effect was, so he can tell me in private whether or not it would affect a factional ability), but your chasing your tail about something that I'm pretty sure is irrelevant.

I mean if anything this was a fucking scumslip: Reasonably Rational "assumed" that the scumteam's shot would be empowered, instead of asking about it. One, this violates their nature. Two, that is NOT the assumption I would make. V later told us that it just so HAPPENED to be the case, but if given the choice between assuming an ability would empower factional abilities and assuming it would not, the latter is far more common. But this is more of RR on the defense. Deflecting away from the issue.

In post 11608, Reasonably Rational wrote:
In post 11607, grapes wrote:And if cerb "concluded a50 was town day 4" LOL. (Hi lack of paranoia) Why hasn't he been shoving a case and WHY WAIT UNTIL AFTER I VOTE THEM TO MOVE ALL IN. Doesn't come from town.
We defended A50 a long time ago the first time someone pushed him. It's in our ISO.

Seven, and just about the only defense/clarification from RR I have no issue with.

In post 11609, Reasonably Rational wrote:
In post 11605, MagnaofIllusion wrote:For part of the supposedly super-savvy Hydra on mechanics the fact that you think it doesn’t matter is damn odd given that you endorse the “2 scum left” hypothesis. Especially since you are ignoring the possibility that two scum means there is by default a Leftover who could have joined the Mafia.
Which means that a fourth possibility exists which explains the lack of two kills last Night –
1. The Leftover cannot make the Mafia scum faction kill and Shiro was bubbled.
Especially since you voting Grapes who basically claimed the only possible Leftover role.
Can we just not with the passive-aggressive shit like the first clause of your post? That would be cool.
As for your theory that the leftover cannot make the faction kill ... what makes you posit that?

More defense from a valid point: if RR really did think there were two scum left, why didn't they think of that? MoI had a good point, in that RR's "alleged" super-savvy mechanics powers are shut off. And this is another deflection from it. I suppose this one can't count, though, so technically it's eight.

In post 11611, Reasonably Rational wrote:Hmm. That's actually an interesting possibility that I hadn't considered at all. I suppose it's possible? I mean, from my POV shiro being bubbled accomplished nothing, he was essentially conftown to me already, by virtue of the failed shot on you, so I don't find any argument regarding any other reason for the missing kill, besides choice or fuzzy is somehow scum(which he isn't), to be especially compelling.

"I am saying you are possibly right while also saying you are possibly wrong so I'm not actually saying anything at all except giving contradicting ambiguous feedback that is open to interpretation." But also not a defense, so nine.

In post 11612, Reasonably Rational wrote:Do you even know WHY we concluded he was town on Day 4? We've expressed it repeatedly, surely you're aware of our argument?

No problems here, and ten.

In post 11614, Reasonably Rational wrote:It's a red flag regarding US that YOU don't care enough about the positions of people you're positing as scum, and the legitimacy of the case you're making on them, to actually be aware of what positions they've held?
There's been no reason to prioritize pushing you, and it was only yesterday, when MOI essentially confirmed that you had claimed Lapis, that a number of possibilities opened up. There were a LOT of slots that were FAR more likely to be scum than you, and we pushed and lynched those slots.

This is more of the "you're wrong, and look at how we were totally justified in ourselves being wrong".

In post 11618, Reasonably Rational wrote:From the moment Fuzzy decided he was going to vig A50, and A50 decided Fuzzy was scum, we were working to convince them each that the other was town, because we were sure they were(though less sure on fuzzy than on A50). When it comes to a vig shot,
there's no reason to argue with the rest of the town when you're being dumb and wrong and ignoring the points we had already made when you can just convince the person making the actual shot.

While this is eleven, I would like to point out, once again, the bolded runs contrary to what was in the thread. The town consensus, from MoI and me, was to vig one of RR/Almost50/grapes. PRIOR to that, the town consensus was to vig Shadow_step. Neither happened, and RR was directly responsible for both. Because of this: they convinced the person making the actual shot.

In post 11619, Reasonably Rational wrote:One sec, I'll actually just go grab the post drixx made from the PT we had with 50 and Fuzzy(the text of it), and that'll reiterate the reasoning there.

"Here, let me get the PROOF that we were right!"

In post 11626, Reasonably Rational wrote:Below is what Drixx said in our PT to get A50 and Fuzzy to stop tunneling one another.
[-snip-]
What exactly is this buried treasure? The fact that we were wrong?

"See here? Here's the proof that we are town! In spite of us being wrong. Which was totally not our doing."

In post 11627, Reasonably Rational wrote:Oh, you're talking about Drixx not lending the same weight to fuzzy not killing SS, and Shiro knowing about MoI's kill immunity, as I did. We talked about it a bunch. We both agreed that fuzzy COULD have left SS alive specifically to take the lynch for the day, and Drixx believed Shiro was paying so little attention that he could have missed the information Titus gave us both about MoI's role. Our degrees of certainty were notably different on these matters though.

I don't exactly have issue with this post, but it still falls under the branch of clarifying their own actions as proof of their alignment.

In post 11628, Reasonably Rational wrote:Seriously? Cerberus and I have a disagreement about one slot and that's even surprising? Like ... Shiro ignored at least a half dozen requests to confirm information and then came into the thread and asked us to confirm something to defend him. That's exactly what led to what you quoted, which I wrote.

This one is much the same, except I hold issue with the blame pinning.

In post 11630, Reasonably Rational wrote:Nobody is lynching you Fuzzy, ESPECIALLY if you have another shot(which will ya know, NEGATE the concern mastin has about ending up in a 4 man mylo, and allow us to clear through all suspects). Shiro and Random are on board with it, nobody else is, therefore you aren't getting lynched.

So while this IS in fact twelve, I'd like to point out the contradiction with Reasonably Rational's earlier statement: earlier, RR fearmongered and said that if Fuzzy vigged again, scum would win. Here, instead, RR is ENCOURAGING Fuzzy to if possible vig again.

In post 11635, Reasonably Rational wrote:Really? You're going to wander into trust tell territory now? Wow.

Since this post was devoted to Almost50 defense, it's thirteen...but I've raised my grievances with RR's declaration of grapes trust telling and why I say that's a scumclaim from them.

In post 11637, Reasonably Rational wrote:Sincerest apologies. My memory hasn't been so great since the concussions. For some reason, I thought you were the one who said the scum team was stupid to kill Yume and had helped town by doing so. (Although amusingly in hindsight the scum team DID help us by killing Yume as that let Xykfu take out Skybird, who had a very strong role). The rest stands.

No issue there, though there's not much which would be one. So fourteen.

In post 11641, Reasonably Rational wrote:It actually goes far beyond this. I looked into this at the time and made a note of it. Skybird ASKED Xkfyu to ally her. It wasn't "close to the end of the day", there was plenty of time for other options to come up, and she could have allied with someone else, or attempted to. Why is this important? Because if you look at that day, guess who Xkfyu was lined up/had asked to ally with BEFORE Skybird said anything? Twin Wings. You know, the slot S_S replaced into. In other words, scum. So, if A50 is scum, NOT ONLY did the scum team attempt to ally with Xkfyu TWICE after learning his ENTIRE ROLE, AND THAT ALLYING WITH HIM PUT THEM AT RISK, but they PUT THE SLOT THAT HAD LESS SUSPICION AND A STRONGER ROLE AT RISK. This isn't the actions of scum who know XK's role and powers. This is scum attempting to use Skybirds gem checking power to see if Xk was a gem, BECAUSE THEY DID NOT KNOW HIS ROLE.
Thanks Fuzzy, that reminds me...something everyone who keeps PUSHING that the people who suggested a farside lynch over a S_S one are suspects seem to be missing: S_S COULD NOT SUBMIT THE KILL, AND COULD DO NOTHING ELSE. Why would ANY scum partner put themselves out on a limb to delay his death by ONE phase? They would have gained quite literally nothing by having fuzzy shoot shadow while farside was lynched, and would have lost A GREAT DEAL because fuzzy would become conftown, and they would be suspected for defending him.
peditx2: You're confusing the event that killed Yume with the Cluster. Please see earlier in this post and you'll see a very simple implied way to handle things. Drixx mentions the trust tell thing because in a game he modded, someone used that exact argument, that they NEVER bus people. If you NEVER bus people, and have a demonstrable history that never bussing is true for you, then it IS a trust tell, because if you ever push scum it means you're town 100% of the time.

While the first is applied as an Almost50 defense, somewhere along the line it morphed into an RR defense. The rest though? Very clearly: "You're wrong. And this is why you're wrong. See how town we are?"

In post 11654, Reasonably Rational wrote:Hi Mastin2. So Drixx messaged me because he knows I absolutely relish taking apart really bad posts(and make no mistake, your last few posts are shameful), but unfortunately I'm simply not in the mood to wade that deep into bullshit. Sorry.
I'll deal with, well, everything tomorrow night possibly. I was actually working on a post earlier today to specifically point out where you're going wrong on your setup speculation(by going through every single flip we've seen so far and everything we know about the setup), but then I realized...if you can't see all this yourself, having me point it out to you isn't going to make you change your mind. It's just going to make you circle the wagons around your pet ideas.
I will, however, take a moment to note one thing: You're comparing this game to Gistou. Do you know what abilities the anti-town factions had in gistou? 9 members, split over three factions, all three of which could recruit AT LEAST one town, AND the "masonry" could become scum. If there are only 5+1 scum in this game(which yes, flavorwise makes perfect sense, but you'll recall in SU, I was QUITE adamant about the possibility that Lapis could be scum by flavor, and that STILL HOLDS TRUE HERE), how exactly does that compare to a game which had 9 scum+cult mechanics?
Think about that while I sleep. I'll see tomorrow if you took my response seriously, or with the deliberate misinterpretation you applied to my earlier question about why we would expect Farside to be a threat.

Pretty unambiguous here. "Mastina. You're wrong. I'm not going to even both telling you why you're wrong. But here's why we are totally justified in our paranoia, and are not wrong even though farside's flip just proved we were wrong."

In post 11669, Reasonably Rational wrote:Specious and bullshit argument since we were onto SC early and in particular I spent time forcing him to interact and then got him to basically word spew shit his pants when I said he had waved the white flag. Furthermore, I had my eyes on TWIE before anyone else in the game. I believe as early as day 3 I was making a note (I believe to A50) to watch and see if TWIE pounced and engaged and to go after him hard if he didn't by a certain deadline. That's not even in question. You can't just make shit up because people can go look, even in a game approaching 12,000 posts.
Fuck off with that bullshit. I don't angleshoot as scum and you know it. The definition of a trust tell is using confirmable self-meta for gain. I'm particularly sensitive to someone saying "I never bus" because it came up in a (fairly) recent game I modded. Logically it's not a moddable offense (albeit just barely) because just because a person has not bussed in the past (or no evidence of it can be found), it does not mean they have not done so in the current game.
It
IS
; however, really fucking dirty play. It's the same thing as a trust tell, especially if one can find all of his alts and takes the time to check all of his games and finds that he's never ever voted for a teammate as scum. That would make him unlynchable in THIS game, even if he's scum and bussed the shit out of people.
So how about you fuck off before you come after me about ethics, when you're openly cheering on homophobic posts, yeah?

This one's a goldmine. For a start...you know who else was making case after case against SirCakez? Oh yeah, grapes! It's utterly fucking hypocritical to call grapes scum for doing the same thing that they did. Also, the point about being one of the first on TWIE is utterly false. I did an iso on them. It's nowhere to be found. All there is, is defense of TWIE. If you want the proof, I put it in 11965. Then there's their defense of their scumclaim. Can't get much stronger than this in terms of "Mastina is wrong. We are town, and this is why we are town!"

In post 11679, Reasonably Rational wrote:Where I come from, when it's used with a negative connotation it's considered an anti LBGT slur. I believe that's how it's viewed on site when used with a negative connotation also. You can adjust or not adjust how you post as you see fit. I'm not the morality police and I don't report people for crap. I just say something and hope people can find it within themselves to restrain themselves and keep the rhetoric related to play and not people. I think if we were all just talking in an MD thread, most (if not all) of us would say we'd rather just be friendly with everyone we play with.

Also, our plan that I spent two days pushing was to lynch Farside and have you shoot Shadow. The goal was to try and confirm you and getting you with A50 was a way to make sure your shot couldn't fail. You ended up shooting Farside because nobody would go with our plan and (I think?) because you realized we are probably right that A50 makes no sense as scum.

I mean the first half is defense but isn't something which is game-relevant defense. This post contained other non-defense stuff, but is still a defense post if for no other reason than this last part I've left in. "We were totally right. Even though we were wrong. It was not our fault!"

In post 11685, Reasonably Rational wrote:
In post 11684, grapes wrote:Really don't like how fuzzy has sorta molded RR and I into one person.
Can you answer my earlier question?

Fifteen and nothing wrong.

In post 11687, Reasonably Rational wrote:I'm tired because it's 5 a.m. and I haven't slept yet. I'll go look at what A50 told us months ago, but my memory says he told us that Xykfu started as a leftover 3rd party survivor with the option to join the Crystal Gems. Since you've been outed as a leftover and which gem you are is also outed, we assumed you also started as and remained a 3P survivor until Farside flipped town. It's possible I'm mistaken and A50 didn't say survivor, but I'm nearly 100% certain he said leftover 3rd party.
I was kind of hoping you would say yes because that could have potentially put us back in a position where we can ensure we remove all suspects and ensure a win.

"This is why we are totally justified in our paranoia."

In post 11695, Reasonably Rational wrote:Asked and answered MoI. Cerb and I all but had an argument about it in the thread. I have a long noted history of soft spot for 3p (Which Mastin knows, and I think is mostly basing her entire premise upon). He was the 3P who stole the game in SaGa. So we tested her by offering her the claimed 20 point win con so she could GTFO as quickly as possible and there would be no chance she would get to her points on M/LYLO day and end the game by taking her win. Not only did she turn it down, she backpedaled and started flailing. I know all of you saw this because nobody was in thread calling Farside town as I was pointing out that her actions didn't line up with her claim and that she was therefore lying and pushed for her lynch.

Set that aside anyway, because isn't Mastin's narrative that we masterminded the farside kill via Fuzzy in advance? Why the hell would I have spent days trying to get you guys to realize she was a threat (legitimate belief; feel free to check our hydra PT for extensive discussion on reasons why after the game if you choose not to believe me) and eroding credibility on our slot? The narrative being pushed just doesn't make sense. It has us playing against ourselves at every turn.

As far as the issue with Xykfu and Skybird; it may be true that you had to argue Xykfu into triggering the event (although I have a note that says you guys thought it would be refunded and could be used more than once, so you might be overplaying the hesitance to use angle just a tad?), but that still doesn't explain why a scum team informed of that ability, including the stress requirement, would have chosen to kill Yume and raise stress and even put Skybird in danger in the first place. Go back and re-read when Yume was killed. You will see people literally mocking the scum team for doing it and saying they had helped town (which was unbelievably ugly and hurtful towards Yume, which I believe I said something about at the time).

The more likely scenario is that scum simply didn't know and had the ability to take out Yume, who was by then outed completely as Steven.

And yes, the argument could extend to our slot as well, but at a much weaker strength than A50. A50 knew the Xykfu information so far in advance that one cannot even argue that the kill on Yume was submitted during the night and just delayed until we saw it happen. One could posit us as scum if they conclude we were only informed of the Xykfu info after it was too late to stop the event which killed Yume. That's not the case, but just pointing out a fairly plausible scenario where we can defend A50 and explain why we have had him clear since day 3 without that being some kind of forced implication that we're also clear for the same reason.

We're clear (or at least should be) because of the totality of our play throughout the whole game. The only reason anyone is even positing us as possibly scum is because it's late in the game and there's only a few slots left who aren't confirmed Crystal Gems or town, and Mastin is wallposting arguing that we're scum. There's a LOT of flaws in her posts though. Like absurd logic holes you could sail an oil tanker through level flaws. Rather than shit on the thread arguing with all that, I thought it was better to point out why someone not confirmed(A50) is almost certainly not scum and then focus on who was left and that's how we ended up on Grapes. Process of elimination.

P.S. - As for the trust tell thing, I've recently had a game I modded ruined over almost exactly the same type of claim/phrasing. I don't want to shit on the thread about it any further, so I've left a note in our hydra PT and we can discuss further after the game if that's your thing.

Pretty unambiguous. "Mastina is wrong. We are town. And these are all the reasons that we are clearly town. Clearly. And in spite of mastina's posts being wrong, we refuse to engage her in why they are wrong. And continue to not really do anything, except insist that we are in fact town. Because yeah we are. Town that is. Because mastina is wrong, you see. And we were totally not at fault for being wrong about farside. Just thought I'd make that clear."

In post 11697, Reasonably Rational wrote:MoI ... just look at Skybird's role card. She was immune to everything but events. Why even put her at risk? It makes no sense.

As for your "spinning a narrative" comment; you're wrong. We're town so our play is simply our play and we reacted to and prodded and tested things as we figured the game out. There's a clear progression and reaction to things as we learned them and figured them out. I mean ... did you forget that we figured out the Crystal Gems existed before anyone (but the Gems, of course) had any clue?

As far as Farside goes, you can't have missed the post where I asked her to clearly tell how far she was from getting her claimed wincon and then giving her a plan to get it. And given how her points ACTUALLY accumulated (which she lied about), she could have gotten that personal win and exited the game which is what we originally wanted. It's clear from the fact that we told Random well before that time that we feared her leaving the game and causing a scum win and the fact that I literally offered her the win so that we could eliminate that as a threat ... that we really did initially view her primarily as a lesser threat. It was only after she rejected that and started spewing lies into the game that we assumed she was lying about the whole "I'm compatible town who can have a personal win that won't hurt you" thing. There's a night and day difference in how we viewed her before and after, and it's clear as day if you read it in context.

The game in question is here. The discussion of the "I have never bused" assertion made by one player with the listmods went on beyond the time Mina closed the thread, so I didn't address it in that thread as planned, but you can clearly see that it was a problem and that it ended up in a ruined game. You can read the latter part of House's ISO to see him complaining about the other player. I had more PMs from that incident than any other game ever. You can also, fwiw, find House in the banned thread for his actions in wrecking the game.

"MoI is wrong. We are totally town here. And this is why we are town. And we were totally justified in our stance. In spite of being wrong. Which wasn't our fault, by the way. Because you know, we're town."

In post 11800, Reasonably Rational wrote:It takes 5 votes to lynch and Grapes had 5 votes and wasn't lynched. He posted a bunch as if he were lynched. How could he possibly not be lynched and not know it? I can think of a couple reasons why he might not be lynched, but neither would be something he didn't know. @Grapes: Care to enlighten us?

Sixteen, though this sounds like RR already knew about my power almost. And had to pretend they didn't.

In post 11816, Reasonably Rational wrote:That's a stretch, even for you Mastin. You know how I am about ethics and mafia. Also, if you had bothered to go look at the game I modded that got ruined by almost exactly the same statement, you'll see it was a town player (House) who made a huge stink about it and eventually ruined the game and earned a ban for it. We're town, and I have the right to tell someone that they are wading into unsound ethical waters. The only reason the statement "I never bus" presented for gain (and it's the using it for gain part that makes it an offense, btw) isn't a trust tell is because it's referring to a LACK of action. Just because he claims to have never bussed (which may or may not be true, but let's assume it's true) does not mean he didn't choose to bus in this game. It doesn't logically follow. That's the only reason the Listmods didn't action the player in my game, in fact. It was a close call.

Shame on you for using the fact that I had a game ruined by a similar statement and the ensuing TvT fight that spilled into ANOTHER game and ended up compromising my game to the point where it had to be ended and trying to say that me bristling at seeing the same shit happen makes me scum. It is NAI for me. Regardless of my alignment, I say something when people violate (or wander dangerously close to the line) the site rules. And you know that because we've played together a lot, and you've seen me call people out for crossing lines a lot. Accuse me of angleshooting again and it's going to get ugly. I'm done taking personal attacks from you.

The fact that you are having to warp things way out of what they really are to try and make a case against us speaks for itself, frankly.

Another example of you twisting shit to try and make a case that just isn't there: my read and instructions about TWIE. You know as well as anyone else who has played with TWIE before that he has a low profile playstyle early. As town he jumps in and starts using the accumulated information to push people on contradictions and such in the mid game. I personally gave the "if he doesn't start engaging and making pushes by day X (it was 5 or 6)" as part of reads given to be passed along in case we died going into the first season finale, because we had our main ability outed. Nobody was going after TWIE on day 3 when I put those reads in the alliance for A50 to pass along. There's not even any plausible scum motive there because he just wasn't being suspected or pushed at that time. Prior experience with him across several games made me aware of how to sort him, and look ... he didn't engage and tried to lurk and use his event to get out of the noose. It's exactly what I predicted a scum!TWIE would behave.

But you're so desperate you'll twist anything it seems.

Like saying we were wrong about the gems. Say what? We were the first people (outside of the gems obviously) to realize that there was a third faction in the game. You didn't even catch on and in fact I am pretty sure you told us we were wrong when we told the game about it. We were also right that they were lying about their win condition. I was also personally right about what their win condition was (you can confirm in our hydra PT after the game) when I said there was exactly one win condition I could think of that would justify the lie, and you can go back and look: I told them NOT to explicitly out that win condition. MoI did so in what seemed to be an emotionally driven post. So contrary to your assertion that we were wrong about the gems ... we were, in fact, right about them every step of the way. Not only that, your assertion that we've been trying to undermine the gems all game is flat out false.

They were lying about their win condition, clearly. That's reason for concern to any rational agent. Varsoon went
way out of his way
to warn us not to try and break the game by flavor, so early in the game when there's a whole faction of third party who are lying, that's reason to be concerned. The problem with your theory is that literally from the moment MoI made that emotional post and outed the fact that they lose if scum take out all of us aligned with Earth, we've been working with them and the only negative thing said was me telling MoI he should have never revealed that info.

You're so wrong and off it hurts. I really don't care to spend my entire day dismantling your bullshit, so how about you deass your head and help us finish off this win. It's fucking offensive the shit you're saying and the way you're twisting shit to try and make it fit your absurd theory that we're somehow simultaneously masterminds who also happen to be complete fucking idiots.

~Drixx

P.S. - I'm sorry but no matter how you spin it, someone talking about someone else performing homosexual acts is inappropriate. In this case, it was clearly derogatory. I would expect you, of all people, to be on my side when it comes to saying that kind of shit has no place in a mafia game. Want to talk about that sort of thing in the speakeasy? Cool. Want to use it as an attack in a mafia game? Not cool. That fact alone should clue you in to how irrational you are being. You're acting and speaking against your own beliefs. Stop it and get your head in the game. If you want to talk any more about whether or not it's okay to say someone is giving homosexual sex favors to another player as an attack, save it for the appropriate time (after the game) and place (speakeasy or MD).

P-edit - The fact that you refuse to even consider the rational case on Grapes AND refuse to consider the things Grapes himself said is staggering. Who are you and what the fuck have you done with Mastin?

"Mastina is wrong. We are totally town here, and this is why we are town. And we were fully justified in our acts. In spite of how we were wrong. Because it wasn't our fault, y'see. But we won't really go into the details for why you're wrong. Because you just are. Thanks to us being town, of course. Because that's what we are."

In post 11818, Reasonably Rational wrote:Mastin ... you realize that we arrived on Grapes by PoE. Cerb said he's working on a post to address your (frankly terrible) response to being asked to put your mod hat on and evaluate what we know about the game so you would see why we assumed Farside was a threat once she refused to take the offered plan to get her the win she claimed, and then backpedaled and started lying. I would say that those aren't the actions of a town player, except somehow she flipped town. I can point out the math if you can't see for yourself, but she could easily have had 20 points and exited the game yesterday. If you say you don't see a clear shift in how we were interacting with her before and after that offer, you're a fucking liar.
As for Grapes; he's not the only suspect but is the one that makes the most sense to us in the current game state. You should read what he had to say because even though we started the wagon on him, he managed to realize we're town.
The only "pants on head" play going on right now is coming from your slot.

"Mastina is wrong. Because there's some magical mystical reason it must be grapes that is scum. Oh, but it could be others of course. Just not us. Because we are town. Totally. And we were fully justified in our paranoia, for these reasons. And it wasn't our fault we were wrong. Because, you know, we are town."

In post 11823, Reasonably Rational wrote:You have nothing left to offer the game then, by your own admission. We're town. We, in fact, asked fuzzy to shoot us if he had any doubts and left both Fuzzy and A50 with instructions on how to proceed if he chose to do that. We already put the gun to our head, and we arranged for that gun to be unstoppable (by asking A50 to ally with Fuzzy) on top of it.

Instead of alienating people, I'm asking you to re-evaluate. You're wrong and digging your heels in and getting ever more and more reachy trying to mangle things to fit just isn't like you.

P-edit:
The fact that you refuse to even evaluate other suspects and freely admit such is confusing to me. Your whole "If I'm wrong I'll sheep you" is a cop out. You ARE wrong and you're refusing to put your considerable skills to use in casing the other suspects (at which point I would expect you to realize you're wrong because you'll come up with an actual case against someone that makes sense), and I frankly don't get that. Have you considered that maybe the rest of us might be right? Presumably Grapes was informed of the benefit of allying with you, correct? So he told someone to hammer him and went through giving out instructions and telling the game that we and A50 are town and told the game how to proceed ... except he knew he wasn't going to actually be lynched and that was all a show. Have you considered that if the rest of us are right, you could be holding up the win out of sheer stubbornness in sticking to a bad case?

"Mastina is wrong. Because we are town, you see. Because of these reasons we submit as proof that we are town. And let's not forget, holding mastina to a double-standard to deflect her point about us. Which is totally cool, because we're really town."

In post 11828, Reasonably Rational wrote:So what you're saying is that only your pride matters. You realize that we've been mislynched ONCE EVER, and that's featured in our signature.

Individually, we also both pride ourselves on not being mislynched. There's a really good reason the people you listed who are town reading us are town reading us. I mean, for fuck's sake we got to Grapes by PoE and pushed the wagon on him, and even he said we're town. They aren't saying that because they like us. In fact, I think our snark and Cerb's outright arrogance and dismissiveness make us a lot less likable in text than we both are in person or on voice comms. You're the only one who is deliberately choosing to ignore all evidence that we're town and deliberately choosing to cherry pick and manipulate the FUCK out of all sorts of shit to try and say we're scum. Like ... if Yume hadn't specifically said that the moderator posted in a PT that you are for sure 100% town, I would at this point assume you are scum ... that's how irrational you have been with this shit.

You're really going to hold the game hostage so you can get us mislynched? And who's to say that you won't keep holding the game hostage to your whims after that? You don't seem to understand the alliance system because if you submit nobody and Grapes is scum and submits you, he gets your protection. Your little stunt here is literally giving a posited scum!Grapes all he needs to make it to M/LYLO, and if there are 2 scum (which is plausible if you actually invest the time to evaluate the game with all the flips we've seen and what we know) and the other is well enough hidden, your bullshit pride "I was lucky enough to be mod confirmed town to one person who told the rest of you, so you have to do what I say" stunt will
literally cost us the game
, which should be a fucking slam dunk win.

But so long as you get to keep your pride intact? Are you being serious with this shit?

"Mastina is wrong. We are town. And we're going to misconstrue mastina's points as being prideful. Because we don't need to actually answer them. We are town, y'see. We've been wrong, of course and there's reason to not like us for that. But trust us, we're town."

In post 11848, Reasonably Rational wrote:1) FARSIDE WAS NOT CONFIRMED TOWN. As a matter of fact, yesterday NOBODY was arguing that she wasn't, in fact, third party. NOBODY expressed a belief that she was LIKELY to be town.
2) As a direct result of 1, Farside was, in fact, AN EASY lynch. Do you know why that is mastin? Because any game state that ends in a groupscum victory necessarily includes the death of TWO of the unlynchable slots(3 unlynchables now, at most 2 posited scum, scum always lose in lylo if that game state does not change). That means that farsides "protection" by yourself and MoI was IRRELEVANT. In any possible Mylo/Lylo situation, neither of you would be likely to be alive, making farside a VERY easy person to get lynched.

To answer you about your insistence that we lay out a plan for the future(when you yourself HAVE NO SUCH FUCKING PLAN(which is primarily relevant in that this is essentially the same plea being made by you, that is "listen to us today because this is absolutely what we feel is the path most likely to lead to victory, and if we're wrong we have no idea how we should proceed"):

This is what we told A50 and TFL last night, and this is where we're at, because there is compelling evidence against any of A50, Shiro, and TFL as scum(while NO SUCH EVIDENCE EXISTS FOR grapes!town)
[-snip-]
In order of "strength of evidence indicating they are not scum": mastin>gems>A50=Shiro>TFL>grapes. In other words, you lynch in the reverse of this order.
It's arguable that Shiro should be lower, primarily because the bubbling clear is conditional on only one scum existing, and the other reasons to believe him to be town rely upon him actually keeping up with a PT between Titus and us, which is far from guaranteed; however, the simple fact that shiro currently possesses a "if we get to 4 left alive without having lynched any more scum and the game is still going, shiro is definitely town" ability means coupled with the other reasons to posit him as town, he should be far from a potential lynchee.

"Mastina is wrong. We are town. And we were totally justified in our actions. In spite of being wrong. Which wasn't our fault, by the way. Oh, and this is proof that we are town. We don't have to actually give current, detailed, thorough thoughts. Because, you know. We're town."

In post 11850, Reasonably Rational wrote:I actually know the answer to that question, in general at least(mastin should definitely check if her ability is special somehow, but I will warn you that she is definitely not above lying about how her role functions in order to manipulate town into taking the path she believes to be correct, ESPECIALLY if she's conftown and knows there is no downside to doing so).
Anyways, per Varsoon: 1) If an alliance is attempted with someone who dies in the night, no alliance is formed, and nobody receives any benefits from having an alliance. 2) If, after an alliance is established, a member dies, any bonuses the living member gained as a result of their own role as a benefit for being in an alliance remain, and any bonuses caused by the dead member of the alliance end.
Also, MoI, don't think I didn't forget your whole ultimatumlike declaration. I'll get to it when I'm home.

Discrediting of me, basically character assassination for no reason whatsoever. ("Mastina will lie for no reason at all.")

In post 11851, Reasonably Rational wrote:@Mastin - Random told you that we were working with him and legitimately gamesolving when we were allied. Just because you choose to ignore that and instead praise Grapes for suggesting that I was "sucking his dick" and somehow that made him say we were working on solving the game doesn't mean he didn't tell you the reason. He did. You just chose to exclude it from your ranting. Just like when you tried to say our meta is different than it is, you pointed to very old games when there are more recent games that contradict your point. You cherry picked to try and prop it up. The moment you sacrificed legitimacy and started manipulating information, ignoring anything that conflicted with what you were pushing, etc... you threw away all the things that give you a reputation as a good player.

We have zero interest in humiliating you, but if you push us to it, I'm sure I can get Cerb to set aside some time if I go through your entire ISO today and pull out every point and lay it out point by point to be deconstructed. It will end up being a gigantic wall and even though it will completely deconstruct and point out how illogical and irrational you've been and it will serve no purpose but to just make you feel bad, as far as I can tell.

We can also do a complete evaluation of our slot and everything we've done, with as little bias as possible. It's impossible for anyone, no matter how practiced a rationalist, to completely remove bias, but we can scrub most of it by continuously viewing our slot as if it were someone else. Much like going through and dismantling your arguments against us point by point, it would be a lengthy exercise, and so far you have not given any indication that you will budge from your stance, even if we do take the time to address your points one by one AND lay out the totality of what we've done this game.

The bottom line, for us, is that we've worked every step of the way to the benefit of the town, from how we used our event (which we could simply have never mentioned or used if we were scum and which resulted in you getting a gunsmith guilty on TWIE) to working with Titus (check every game we've played with Titus to see how contentious that history is; the ship PT from Space Dandy 2 being a place to look if you want to see recent and the ugliest it ever got) because despite the friction and frustration in the past, her particular way of utilizing different roles in synergy is her greatest strength. There's a reason she concluded we were town (and hey, Shiro is back in the game and can confirm that Titus did indeed grill the SHIT out of us, permanently steal our alliance ability, and decided we were town because of how we claimed it and asked for her to help us amplify its use by having her organize things and misdirect so scum wouldn't realize what was going on). There's a reason that everyone we've worked with all game long concludes we're town.

And that brings me to the crux of things: there is no world in which we are the last scum (as you are suggesting) and can win. There's 3 slots that will never be lynched and we know (as does MoI, and sorry for outing this MoI but I don't think scum can turn it to their advantage) that MoI can ensure that he's the one alive in any kind of last day scenario. Like ... MoI isn't bullshitting when he says there's a 100% guaranteed path to a town win here. Even positing two scum, the only way I see for us to lose is something like what you're doing right now, frankly.

"Mastina is wrong. We are town. And this nonevidence is the proof we are town. And these things which we weren't in control of? Yeah, those were totally proof we are town, too. Oh and that thing which all scum have (a town event ability)? Totally proof we're town in spite of how we'd have no choice but to use it as scum anyway and in fact used it to save our own hides from an early lynch. Which would've been bad. Because we're town, you see. And mastina is wrong. Oh and we couldn't be scum because if we were scum we wouldn't be able to win, in spite of how mastina laid out exactly how we would. You can ignore her because she is wrong. And we're town."

In post 11857, Reasonably Rational wrote:Did you read my last post?That is, the last post from Cerb? That post tells town what order to lynch in.

"Clearly mastina wasn't reading, so there's proof she is wrong and that we are therefore town."

In post 11858, Reasonably Rational wrote:And umm... thanks for illustrating my point that you are only paying attention selectively Mastin. We couldn't have possibly pointed it out any better than you did yourself by begging for something we already gave you.

"We're continuing to dodge and deflect from mastina's actual point and not give her what she asked for, but don't worry. She's clearly wrong. Which makes us town, by the way."

In post 11859, Reasonably Rational wrote:Headed 900 miles South.
V/LA this head until January 3rd, 2017
See you all next year,

V/LA declaration/fluff, so technically, seventeen.

In post 11912, Reasonably Rational wrote:@mastin: my reasoning for everything I've said has been laid out throughout the game, and if you note the timing, those short posts from me have all come when I've been at work and mobile, and I just c/p'd what drixx had to say in the past because I didn't have time to write an actual post.

"We are town. And the reasons are there! I mean, I can't show them right now because I'm busy

(note: this is not actually a sin but it's part of the explanation all the same)

, but they're there! Swear it, proof that we're town. And I'll give it, too. In spite of proof of being town not being what mastina was asking for."

In post 11924, Reasonably Rational wrote:@mastin: I believe the only thing we've said in PTs that wasn't brought to the thread was this: we didn't EXPLICITLY say that the reason Fuzzy shouldn't shoot on N7 was because if the town experienced 3 deaths(ml, scum kill, vig kill)+farside attained their win con+we had underestimated the size of the the scum team, town would lose. Drixx HINTED at it, but didn't want to express it outright. We DID tell the game that if fuzzy shot on that night, his safest shot was at SS, because SS as near-vanilla only made sense to us as part of a larger than expected scum team, therefore shooting at him ensured both three town deaths AND a larger than expected scum team wouldn't happen simultaneously, or were at least improbable to do so.
@grapes: I'm going to be reevaluating things, so I'll get back to you about A50. I currently feel that he's part of the key to ensuring scum can't win, since they have too many legitimate conftowns to kill through to get to him, so even in the worst case he'll be alive in lylo and NOT an easy mislynch, but that's all based on the thoughts I'm throwing out.

I mean this is the towniest post RR's made the entire day phase, but it's still got its issues. Namely that it's still not doing what I asked them to do. It's still pointing to their past achievements. And you get the added sin of opening up a back door, one which would involve not lynching someone who is impossible to lynch (grapes) and instead lynching someone who is possible to lynch. (To be fair, this is not something impossible from them as town, if the offer to genuinely reassess is in fact true. However, while genuine reassessment would be the town motivation, necessity at being unable to lynch grapes would be the scum motive.)

In post 11925, Reasonably Rational wrote:
In post 11923, Shiro wrote:
Vote:RR

This day will never end unless this happens.
RR I think you are town and you living will put us in this endless loop. If you are scum you fooled me.
We need to move this game forward.
Who else is scum besides tfl shiro? Is there anyone else that you have any real suspicion of? Not "I was forced to vote for this person because PoE", but anybody else whose actions you're suspicious of?

I mean, Shiro said that they think the vote's on town, but all the same this is an effort to make them move elsewhere. So while not exactly a "you're wrong", it's still a "we're town".

In post 11929, Reasonably Rational wrote:Oh, before I get into that, short version of my rebuttal to mastin:
[-snip-]
@mastin, or anyone else: Did I miss anything?
Also, sorry, that was way longer than I planned, and isn't even fucking important. *sigh*

Admitting to the sin does not make it less of a sin. In this case? "Mastina is wrong. We are town. These are the proof we are town. And this isn't what we should be focusing on, but I'm wasting time on it anyway. Because I feel the need to justify my paranoia. Which is totally right. Even though it has been proven wrong. Which wasn't our fault, by the way. Because we are town. For these reasons you see. Which aren't important because they aren't what mastina was asking for and still don't bother to address her real points. But they didn't need to, because ultimately it doesn't matter. We are town, and mastina is wrong, and showing that was totally worth it."

In post 11930, Reasonably Rational wrote:@grapes: We can talk. You asked me to get my head back in the game. That's what me going through the trouble of reevaluating EVERYTHING is about. Was there anything in particular you wanted to discuss?

Did I say another of RR's posts was the towniest? Take it back, this one is. Also eighteen.

In post 11931, Reasonably Rational wrote:@grapes: Do you actually want our answer to the reason why we were townreading A50(it exists in our ISO fairly recently, multiple times), or do you just want to hear what Shiro has to say about it?

I mean this doesn't sound like it's actually reevaluating, but it doesn't fit the mold so at least I can say it's nineteen.

In post 11933, Reasonably Rational wrote:Do you mean mechanically, or in terms of play? Mechanically, the skybird slot had good cause to be town due to their knowledge of steven D1(but I'll freely admit this, once we realized Yume wasn't explicit town, elegance wise it made a lot of sense for there to be one scum and one town in contact with her(though elegance wise, it makes a lot less sense that one of those two slots would be confirmed town to her, thus making it obvious(in retrospect) that the other was scum)). In terms of play, there was little difference in the early game. Skybird had more to say, but her posts weren't especially influential, which makes them as insignificant as twinwings lack of content.

This still is justifying being wrong. "We were wrong. But in principle, we were right! (Even though we had previously warned against using that principle.)"

In post 11935, Reasonably Rational wrote:Her push seems desperation-based. She's essentially pulling out all the stops in it. I'm having a lot of trouble parsing where the line between desperate entreaty because she sincerely believes this and outright attempted manipulation lies. I've said this before in this game(and she hasn't denied it): mastin isn't above manipulating the town, AS TOWN, to get them to do what she believes is correct. I KNOW she's doing things in this push that are manipulative(such as deliberately misinterpreting my VERY early question to her about why we might believe farside was a threat, and using very old meta that supports her position, rather than new meta which DOES NOT), but because I know that she isn't someone who relies solely on facts to push a lynch, I don't know if she's doing it for pro-town or anti-town reasons.

Continued character assassination of me, painting my case against them as desperation.

It's true I'm pulling out all stops for it. But there's no desperation involved. Merely exasperation, that we're

this fucking close

to winning and that nobody seems willing to believe me that all we have to do. Literally ALL we have to do. Is just fucking lynch RR. Painting me as needing the lynch (when I've specifically laid out EXACTLY why this is the lynch I would prefer and how I came to this conclusion, the polar opposite of me "needing" a lynch) weakens the legitimacy of my words.

In post 11936, Reasonably Rational wrote:Oh, and regarding the A50 vote: No voting will be occurring until I reread as much as I can of the living players ISO's at least.

Twenty. Not a problematic post, but also not a town post, in that this is something which is equally motivated by either alignment and thus null.

In post 11953, Reasonably Rational wrote:Thanks, and the same to all of you. (Also, I got my computer shit fixed! Yay! I'll actually do shit now!)

Fluff post, and technically 21.

Final count? Of 66 posts, 21 weren't "you're wrong, we're town, this is why" type posts, including three fluff posts among others. Okay. So I guess I did exaggerate a little bit. Instead of it being basically every post, it ended up being only 2/3rds of their posts. But you get the idea all the same. I probably could have made this wall much shorter, but oh well. You either read it and agree, or you read it and didn't agree, or you didn't read it and complain about me writing such a long wallpost.

mastin2 · Tue Jan 03, 2017 1:15 am

I hope you don't mind, but I've spent the last five or so hours on this game and it's 4:15 AM. I kinda need to get to bed. (Well I don't have much reason to wake up any time early tomorrow, but...I'm up much later than I should be.)

mastin2 · Wed Jan 04, 2017 7:49 pm

In post 11994, MagnaofIllusion wrote:1. Grapes is Town as you suggest.
2. Grapes is the only character remaining who makes any sense as Leftover who can join / help the Mafia.
3. Based on 2 that there is only 1 scum remaining.
If you disagree with these premises pipe up. Otherwise look at the logic flow. If we lynched Grapes today that leaves us with the following pools of players before a Mafia Nightkill.
Confirmed Town (4)– myself, Random, yourself and Shiro.
Not Confirmed Town (3)– Almost, RR, Fuzzy
Shiro becomes confirmed not scum do to the game not ending when Shadow was lynched and he was bubbled per Mod confirmation to me in conjunction with the above 3 premises.

Stopping you there.
If we agree on the premise that grapes is town, it doesn't matter if he is confirmed as town via lynch.
We can automatically assume that Shiro is confirmed as town if grapes is town.

Therefore, we have three days, to lynch three candidates: Fuzzy, Almost50, and Reasonably Rational.

If we lynch grapes to prove he is town, we have two days to lynch three candidates.

There is no way to avoid the coinflip.
You can make assumptions. RR says Almost50 is town. You say Almost50 is town. I also do not believe Almost50 is scum (though not to the same level of conviction as you believe him to be town). So if we assume he is town, yes. There isn't a coinflip, because you've got two days to lynch Fuzzy and RR. But it's exactly that: an assumption.

We have FIVE players who are suspects.
No matter what, come lylo there will be an assumption in play.
If we ASSUME grapes is town, then we assume Shiro is town as an extension, and we lynch through RR/Fuzzy/Almost50.
If we ASSUME Almost50 is town, then we lynch grapes, confirm Shiro is town, and then we lynch through RR/Fuzzy.

But no matter what, there is exactly that in play: an ASSUMPTION.
There is zero way to get a gamestate free of a coinflip. No matter what, an assumption MUST be made.

2 Confirmed Town – Random and myself
5 Others – grapes, Fuzzy, RR, Almost, Shiro

Your theory here assumes a no lynch. And if we no lynch, that sure as fuck won't be my doing. It goes down to 4 after a lynch. And while there would indeed be four unconfirmed town...again. That's literally no different than what we already have.

Fuck theoretical gamebreaking strategies. Those were thrown out when Fuzzy was instructed by RR to make two sub-optimal plays.
Just scumhunt. And use every aspect of scumhunting, including setup spec. grapes is in theory scum, yes. Grapes is, in theory, possible as scum, sure. But tell me. Do you actually think he is? Do you actually think, out of all the players in the game, grapes has the highest chance of any of flipping scum?

If not, then you're never getting my support in lynching him.

If you do? If you sincerely, actually, believe that grapes has the highest chance of any player of flipping scum? Yeah, well, then show me. I've been asking for why grapes is scum. Aside from lolPOE, I've gotten basically nothing.

I will lynch who I think is scum.
I will compromise lynch on a player which doesn't remove my influence from the game (i.e., Fuzzy is a last resort who I'd vote if absolutely necessary to avoid a no-lynch).
I will not lynch one of my strongest townreads off of a theoretical plan which I don't even believe in. And you can point me to the numbers all day. I still won't believe in it.

Show me why grapes is scum. Or, alternatively, show me why every player aside from grapes is town. (You're allowed one exception if you feel there are two scum left.) I'd accept that. I'd listen to

that

. But I'm not listening to this, because this is not something which appeals to me.

Reasonably Rational is who I think the last scum is. I've explained in very thorough detail why I not only think they are scum, but also why I think every other player is town. I'm not looking for some theoretical strategy which ensures the town wins. I'm looking for a strategy in which the town wins TODAY. In other words, I'm looking to lynch scum TODAY.

And nobody has given me one IOTA of a reason to believe said scum is grapes. Fuck, I've done more work to show why grapes could be scum than the entire rest of the playerlist combined, and I did so in raising reasons why I don't think grapes is scum! (As in, "I see these points which COULD be indicators, but I don't think they're valid because of these reasons".)

I'm not interested in lynching scum later. I'm interested in lynching scum NOW. And I think that scum, singular, is Reasonably Rational. It's as simple as that.