Newbie 1815: Prisons [Endgame]

[BlackVoid]

Hi guys!

@Alisae, can we make it 72 hours? 48 is rather a short time to catch up and contribute meaningfully.

[BlackVoid]

honestly im prob replacing out overnight cuz ive stopped giving shits about this game.

Whoa, hang on right there. A big part of the reason I replaced in was because I saw you were being obvtown and I thought this might be fun to bounce ideas around.

@Skitter, don't think it'll be a problem this time on my end.

[BlackVoid]

Okay, I was following the game but only skimming and I'm going to catch up page by page now. This won't be pretty but since I only have 48 hours, I'm just going to post my thoughts as I read and maybe do a condensed version after that.

@Skitter, I'll talk to you about why I think Paul is town once I finish my catchup and unlike last time, I should be done in a few hours.

UNVOTE: until I decide where I want my vote.

[BlackVoid]

I'm fully caught up which is cool but now I have to leave for work. While I don't have many strong reads, I have a bunch of thoughts about the game which I'm going to start laying out after I return in about ~7 hours.

also bv hi! can u plz lynch aphix with me? skitters is being a pain

In the meantime, feel free to sell me on it. The biggest thing I remember off of memory is that you thought his switch to voting MWAP was scummy when he had previously called MWAP town and didn't respond to your question. What did you think of his response when he finally gave it?

[BlackVoid]

I'll post comments/questions to everyone to help me solidify my reads. Starting with Aphix since he's a major point of discussion.

Aphix:

Pretty sure he is town. First off, there's the suspicion of JaeReed in his opening post 234. I find it town because I don't think replacing into the game by pushing the widely townread IC makes sense as a scum strategy. I also agree with 350. I liked JaeReed's initial posts but thought he was coasting later on and pretty much reached the same conclusion Aphix did.

Then there's his general reaction to the heat on him. Most of D2, Aphix was under a lot of pressure but he's still pushing against one of only two people townreading him (JaeReed), and townreading someone who seems very sure that he's scum (Osuka). I think Aphix's reads are coming from a genuine place as opposed to reads that would be convenient for scum to have. For example, he could have easily made an ally in JaeReed but he doesn't, and seems more worried about potential towncred JaeReed might get on his townflip for "whiteknighting." I felt his general frustration with everyone for just calling him scum and checking out is something I can relate to from a town viewpoint but would be a bold move as scum. I think scum in his position would be more interested in seeing who they can persuade and bring to their side rather than just lash out at everyone. I see town doing the latter because people not being active means he can't get reliable reads on them so that's an additional layer of frustration that scum wouldn't have even if they got universally scumread.

A couple of questions though: Can you also elaborate on why Madtatters was a scumread at the point you replaced in? Specifically, what do you mean by 214 not being the usual distrust you see from a town player. What were you expecting from town there?

What's the point of 385? By announcing that you're going to scumread whoever hammers early, you are basically warning scum away from doing it. If you hadn't said anything and got hammered early, that would be a lot more useful to catch scum off-guard, wouldn't it?

[BlackVoid]

Sorry for the delay guys. I had to unexpected go to work this morning to fill in for someone and then I was so tired I went to sleep. But I have thoughts on the game and I'm ready to spend the next few hours churning out content. I'll start with JaeReed since he's my biggest scumread at the moment and then explain my Paul read and if I have time, go over the remaining players.

[BlackVoid]

JaeReed:

I liked most of JaeReed's initial questions to everyone and it looked like he was trying to drive the game forward. I didn't like the MWAP push in 166, it being mostly based on active lurking is weird considering JaeReed's earlier stance that activity is not alignment indicative. I did notice the distinction that MWAP apparently seemed caught up and wasn't posting content but I still don't like the general direction of JaeReed's scumreads being people that were mostly low activity (200) while townblocking with active posters (specifically I don't understand the Osuka townread).

My biggest problem though is something similar to what Aphix touched on earlier. I don't think JaeReed is invested in his reads or is attempting to derail lynches on his townreads or direct them towards his scumreads. 287 towards the end of the day is an example of that. There was a lot of momentum for the MWAP lynch at that point and JaeReed seemed to be townreading him. But there's no attempt to try and get people to unvote and look at DoctorPepper more, or appealing to anyone in his townblock to look at DoctorPepper. The way he just stated that he was happy with his DoctorPepper vote feels more like he was expecting the MWAP lynch to go through, for MWAP to flip town, and for him to have a target to push the following day. It didn't seem like he expected his vote on DoctorPepper to do anything nor did it look like he cared.

You said in 195 that Osuka seemed different to how he played in a scumgame of his you were reading. Can you explain what this difference is? I don't understand the basis behind your Osuka townread in the first place. Can you talk about what you mean when you say that he "isn't trying to direct you in any particular way?"

I don't understand why Paul is a scumread based on the no kill. Shooting the BP is the optimal move for scum because it doesn't change the number of mislynches they need to win, and by taking away the bulletproof they have the freedom to get rid of a conf-town later on if they feel the need to. Shooting elsewhere would be a risk since scum might be shooting a potential mislynch and get POE'd more easily if the confirmed town makes it too far into the game. So, I'd expect

anyone

to take that shot. I also think it's weird that you were townreading Paul all along until skitter replaced in and started attacking him, and then there's a "vote: Paul, w/e" tone of resignation and then a weird justification for the vote later. Can you go over how your Paul read developed and why the resigned tone?

Two other problems with your nightkill logic: Firstly, Osuka was widely townread as well so it could just as well apply to him as Paul. Secondly, there are two scum so their nightkill would be determined by what benefits both of them so just picking out Paul on the basis of "widely townread player making a no-info kill" seems weird at this point.

[BlackVoid]

The other PR didn't claim so you're assuming that mafia know who the other PR is. If they take that gamble and end up shooting a VT, that makes the game much harder for them than just playing it safe and removing the bulletproof from the 1-shot BP. I saw your comment about the kill and your point could be semi-valid if there was a lone scum remaining. But there are two scum so I'm not sure why you are assuming that one of them has to be townread and that it is Paul. Why couldn't Madtatters or DoctorPepper or Aphix make that kill for instance.

On re-read, I noticed that MadTatters quickhammered so you probably didn't have that much time between when MWAP was at L-1 and hammer but why not make a stronger effort to stall the wagon while you figure stuff out or talk to Paul who you were townreading and who was pushing the MWAP wagon the hardest?

Is your read reversal on DoctorPepper based solely on him voting Aphix after Aphix said that Paul scumslipped?

[BlackVoid]

One more thing, you are essentially voting Madtatters because you don't want him in lylo. How is that so different than lynching MWAP because he was a destructive to the game and him being alive would be more detrimental to town than just lynching him? Both are essentially "get rid of a distraction moving forward" but you were calling BS on the MWAP lynch while advocating for the Madtatters lynch.

Is it normal for you to not have strong scumreads?

[BlackVoid]

If you can, give me your best shot at explaining the Osuka townread because that's the one read I think would be most helpful for getting a read on both you and him.

[BlackVoid]

Can you link to an example game where you had no strong scumreads?

I still don't get why DoctorPepper's vote on Aphix was so town that it erased all your previous concerns with him being an "opportunistic fuck" about the MWAP lynch. Aphix said Paul scumslipped. Osuka called it bullshit. You agreed and called it even more bullshit. Then DoctorPepper voted Aphix. It was a ridiculously safe vote.

[BlackVoid]

Okay but why didn't you already go back to your DoctorPepper suspicion once you concluded that Aphix was most likely town (as opposed to the Madtatter's vote which you didn't seem to have much conviction in)?

I'll skim through those games after I get through everyone else's ISOs here. Thanks for the links.

[BlackVoid]

DoctorPepper:

I have conflicting feelings here. I don't find the reasoning behind either of his major pushes compelling. The MWAP vote was basically a policy-lynch for claiming scum. The Aphix vote was purely because Aphix accused Paul of scumslipping (something that Osuka and JaeReed pushed before DoctorPepper did).

But I liked how strongly he was pushing Aphix in 393. He comes across like he really buys into his argument.

Why policy-lynch someone that claimed scum? If you really thought it was a scumclaim, I'd expect something like "well, he gave up and claimed scum so let's lynch him." The policy-lynch phrasing seems like you either knew he was town or didn't really expect him to flip scum there and comes across as not taking responsibility for the flip. Immediately griping about the lynch in 285 right after voting feels weird.

I don't understand your townreads either. JaeReed is still a townread because he proposed a BP-claim strategy? MWAP was town because his posts give off a "vibe of a newb-town player?" What does that mean? You said in 212 that it could be scum acting cautious but you doubt it. Why? Also, how come you were townreading MWAP for being cautious and now townreading MadTatters for not being cautious? A little more elaboration on the distinctions would be nice.

[BlackVoid]

NotTheRealPaul:

I've been trying to delay this read partly because I wanted to see Paul engage with me and then read through all of skitters' points more closely but time's running out. I'm actually not as sure about him being town as I was when I replaced in.

My reasons for initially townreading him when I was spectating the game mostly come down to his high activity level D1 and his frustration upon being pressured D2. I felt like he was still trying to accomplish an Aphix lynch despite getting a ton of pressure from Skitter.

Upon reading more closely, I actually agree with Skitter that his reaction to MWAP was somewhat weird.

@Paul, can you explain why you were so convinced on MWAP being scum that you took his scumclaim literally? In the game we played together, I said I was scum and you doubted yourself even after that. That means you know that town can claim scum sarcastically. But here, you seemed absolutely certain with no question that MWAP should be lynched and everyone's next post should be "vote: MWAP."

I also found his reaction to me replacing in and townreading him to be a bit underwhelming. I'm not sure what I expected but he just told me to lynch Aphix and after I invited him to sell me on it and gave reasons why Aphix is town, that read just fell by the wayside and dismissed as gut. I suppose I expected him to engage my points and continue pushing his read because he seemed so sure before.

With that said, I thought him wanting to replace out was indicative of town. That seems like a dick move for scum to pull upon being caught and Paul comes across more as a laid back, chill dude so I have a hard time imagining him doing that as scum. But I can see town getting this frustrated.

@Skitter, can you link me to the posts that best illustrate your Paul scumread? I want to engage but there are so many of them I don't know where to begin. I will say that I don't get the impression that he's discrediting you. You said town-Paul is paranoid of you and sheeps you despite that but neither of those points apply here given you are conf-town and your biggest scumread is him.

So, he's probably town but I have a few reservations about that. Would like more engagement from Paul before I can get a better read.

[BlackVoid]

I'm here for the next 8 hours. Then I won't be here for the following 7 and will be here after that. That's for everyone who wants to talk in real time.

[BlackVoid]

Going through Paul's ISO again, will post in a bit. But first, a question for Paul:

@Paul, what alignment do you prefer playing as?

[BlackVoid]

@Skitter, I'll talk about your points first and then give my general impression of Paul's ISO:

1. I don't agree with the "buddy and discredit" point. I think it's easy for townies posts to be interpreted as "buddying" and in the last game we played, my posts towards Paul could certainly have come across that way. Him saying you are great town could just be his honest feelings about you. I also think if someone that I expected to read me correctly is wrong, I'd probably laugh about it so I don't think the "you are wrong already" is particularly damning. I don't know why he said "already" though. That was weird and I do want an explanation for that.

2. I didn't like the "I'd scumread you if you weren't conf-town" bit from Paul. But several people said something similar. Ciara in 326, DoctorPepper in 327 and then Paul in 335. I also remembered Paul very accurately saying in Newbie 1797 that your aggression made you town. You had a pretty aggressive opening here pushing on Paul so by his own logic, I'd expect him to think it's townie even not considering that your predecessor was conf-town. But I thought the piggybacking off of Ciara and Osuka to further call you scummy definitely came across as dismissive.

3. Paul saying your reads are bad I think is referring to the fact that you have suspicions of one of his townleans and Paul himself while townreading his biggest suspect (Aphix). I'll have to check the timeline on this though as I'm not sure at what point JaeReed started becoming a scumread for you.

4. I agree that his vote on MWAP was odd. Like I said, it's weird that he took it as a literal scumclaim. I also don't know how he got this superconfident scumread on MWAP in the first place in 251. MWAP only made around five posts by that time and I'd be pushing to get him replaced as opposed to lynched. I also didn't like 262 as a reaction to MWAP's scumclaim. If Paul legit thought that was scum giving up, he'd assume that the lynch was going to happen anyways and wouldn't be so frantic about it. I could see it from scum wanting to make sure a mislynch doesn't slip away although I'm not sure if Paul is that kind of scum player.

5. Regarding Aphix, I certainly don't agree with the push and I'm on the fence about whether it's genuine. I'll go into it more in my next post.

6. I agree with your point about tone and upon re-reading, it's probably the biggest thing that sticks out to me. Paul in this game seems hyper-aggressive, often using strong language to make pushes is overly certain about his reads. That feels radically different than his play in TB's game where he was often sheepy and less abrasive in his interactions with people. I noticed what he said about being less aggressive in stronger playerlists and I'm wondering how much of that is alignment-indicative.

So, there are a lot of things I find bothersome in his posting there are a couple of hints that he may have a stronger scumgame than towngame so I need to think this through and actually engage him which will hopefully happen sometime today. Can you go over your other reads as well and whether you agree/disagree with any of mine? I haven't talked about MadTatters and Osuka but I have a slight townlean on Tatters and I don't know where the Osuka townreads are coming from. I also don't think JaeReed/Paul make a lot of sense as partners given how obviously they were leading the game together early on D1 and townblocking with each other.

[BlackVoid]

Have you in the past pushed policy lynches for any reason?

I'd also like comments on my townread on Aphix. Is Aphix still your only scumread?

[BlackVoid]

Can you explain your MadTatters read, JaeReed?

[BlackVoid]

Oh man, I wish we had more time. Deadline is around this time tomorrow. I have to leave for work right now. @Skitter, will you be around after midnight tonight? I want to discuss your last post and figure out who to lynch before it gets too close to deadline.

[BlackVoid]

I'm here. Paul saying he prefers scum actually makes me suspect him more because the extra confidence and aggression makes sense for his preferred alignment. I'll get through all the latest posts in a bit.

@Skitter, why were you thinking Paul is Pepper's most likely partner? I was actually thinking over a Pepper/Paul scumteam possibility at work mostly based on Pepper stating an early scumread on Paul but deciding to give him a pass because everyone else read him as town. Felt to me like he just wanted to pass off the blame to rest of the town in case Paul flipped scum.

[BlackVoid]

@Pepper, was there any reason you ignored my 651? I'd also like more reads from you. Are you still wanting to lynch Aphix purely because he said Paul scumslipped?

[BlackVoid]

I'm not as confident about JaeReed as I was initially but I think I'm going to vote there as well. Still trying to decide whether Pepper would be a better lynch here. JaeReed's latest posts felt like he was actually trying to sort/understand your posts. Pepper's contribution this day phase amounted to planting his vote on Aphix and checking out. And the reasoning is pretty weak (Aphix said that Paul scumslipped). D1, his contribution amounted to policy-lynching MWAP. Thoughts?

[BlackVoid]

VOTE: JaeReed

We still need Aphix to show up and for someone to hammer. I'll be online until an hour before deadline at which point I have to go to work.

[BlackVoid]

UNVOTE:

Did you crumb tracker anywhere early on? Your weird townread on me doesn't make any sense as Ciara going nowhere says nothing about my alignment.

[BlackVoid]

Why were you crumbing a townread on me though? That felt like trying to throw out a crumb at the last second in case you had to claim.

Pedit: The townread on me for "reasons" is a pretty obvious crumb.

[BlackVoid]

Yeah, that makes sense. I did get the feeling that you were lying low on purpose - I was almost expecting more of an attempt to manipulate if you were scum and the lack of it was making me second guess.

I'll re-read Tatters again to see if there might be anything there.

[BlackVoid]

This actually narrows things down pretty well. If two scum are within Paul, Tatters, Osuka, and Pepper, we can look at their interactions to see which of them makes sense.

[BlackVoid]

Conflicted. They've both been working in tandem for most of the day phase which would be a bold move for scum. Paul went so far as to say that if Osuka is town here, they should hydra together. Osuka for his part didn't really seem to be sorting Paul and I thought him not really engaging with any of skitter's points was a bit weird. It's possible he was confident in that townread because he's been "working with" Paul throughout the whole game. I suppose it's possible but more likely Paul is town if Osuka is scum and he

knew

Paul was town.

[BlackVoid]

I get weird vibes from Osuka's ISO because I think he's overreacting to everything. I'm not sure if this is a playstyle thing or if he's trying to fake confidence. 140 and 172 is what I'm talking about. I really dislike 183 as well. It seems like he's trying to make it seem like JaeReed is attaching to himself (Osuka) as opposed to genuinely thinking "Jae could be buddying but I don't think he is." The "if anything I should be wary" phrasing is something I don't like. I'm not sure which post you are talking about skitter where you say he got mad at MWAP. I didn't find any of his end of D1 posting to be a towntell.

[BlackVoid]

Osuka/Pepper is probably my best guess. I don't see anything ruling them out as scum together. Putting a partner in a lynchpool is common enough that I wouldn't consider it clearing. Osuka was part of Pepper's initial suspect pile but a secondary suspect and then Pepper forgets about him and never brings it up again.

One other thing about Pepper I forgot to mention: he seemed to be discrediting Tatters' suspicion of him by saying that Tatters was townreading the active posters, then sort of gives her a tutorial on looking for motivations as opposed to activity. But nothing in Tatters' posts suggested that she was using activity as a basis for her reads and it seemed entirely co-incidental that her reads at that point were townreading the higher post-count players. 397 is what I'm talking about.

Hopefully Aphix shows up and we can pull off a Pepper lynch.

[BlackVoid]

One thing in his favour is that I think his tonal difference from SUPER AGGRESSION and beating ppl down to here is big enough that I was thinking he might be town here off that alone. It's a small point since I know that can change from game to game but it is one so I might as well air it now that I know I'm dead tonight.

Can you go over this a bit more. I did get those vibes from the way he attacked Tatters and MWAP (i.e. hyperaggressive tone).

[BlackVoid]

VOTE: DoctorPepper

I skimmed over that game and I'm not sure what to make of it. He was definitely more aggressive there. I'm not really sure what's alignment-indicative for Osuka. He has that sort of playstyle that I naturally tend to scumread. I'd say we flip Pepper and then go from there tomorrow. That'll also give me a chance to re-read everything during the night.

[BlackVoid]

@DP, what crumbs/hints did you give about your role so far?

[BlackVoid]

He's claiming JK basically. @Pepper, out your N1 target and reason for it.

[BlackVoid]

Just vote DP. An hour and ten minutes left. I agree it's much less likely than JaeReed's claim. The way he just cc'd and disappeared is weird as well. He didn't even explicitly claim JK.

[BlackVoid]

I'm really fucking hung over right now. So I don't I can make a coherent enough post for you guys. So lynch me if you must, on the condition that Jae goes tomorrow

Claim your JK target please.

[BlackVoid]

Why did you choose Paul?

[BlackVoid]

Did you crumb your role or your target?

[BlackVoid]

Curious what time zone Paul is in and whether he's going to get home by the deadline. If not, I don't know why he didn't just vote DP before leaving. I'm heading off to work in ten minutes so hoping to see a hammer and scumflip when I get back.

@Skitter, just lay out any other thoughts you want me to consider tomorrow in case it's a no lynch as I'd expect you to be the nightkill. Also, I don't think DP not considering Paul as scum makes sense as he's just as likely if not more to have stopped a scum-Paul from making a nightkill as it is that he protected a town-Paul from a nightkill.

[BlackVoid]

I was thinking about that last night. I think if you were scum, showing up and voting DP was the best move for you to make. Alternatively, you don't show up. We no lynch. Skitter is killed, DP is lynched the following day and then you kill JaeReed. You still two more mislynches to win which is the same number you'd need in the current gamestate. Except you'll look a lot worse. I could see a scenario where you try to lynch JaeReed over DP but DP would be in a bind: either he has to answer for why he didn't protect conf-town skitter or you have to leave skitter alive.

With that said, I'm not set on you being scum. Still have an open mind. So, help me solve the game and we'll go from there. I'm re-reading the entire game right now with knowledge of flips and I should be back here this evening.

[BlackVoid]

I'll get to this game tonight. Been busy but I'm free tomorrow and day after.

[BlackVoid]

Been really busy irl sorting some stuff out that I haven't been able to get involved in this game the past few days but that's mostly out of the way now.

Anyways, I really have no idea which of Paul/Osuka/random/aphix are scum and while aphix has been my strongest townread, I haven't really managed to rule anyone out. I'll go over my impressions of the game with flips in mind and if people could engage with my points or give different opinions, that'll help me move towards figuring out the game. I'm just going to lay out all my thoughts so this might be a bit meandering. I have a post nearly compiled with thoughts on D1 which I'll post in a couple of hours. Need to grab dinner right now.

[BlackVoid]

All of these are my thoughts on day one. I'll go over the rest of the game in a separate post which I'm writing now and should be done later tonight. Feel free to comment on what I've posted so far though.

Aphix (Icibalus):

113 - This is a bad post from Icibalus. It feels like he's trying to excuse himself pre-emptively by saying he's a bad player.
147 - This post is even worse. Saying Madtatters is "clearly scum" for quoting a post is the worst attack I've seen so far in the game. I think anyone reasonable would just assume that Madtatters meant to say something and clicked submit before doing so. I don't see what motivation scum have to do what Icibalus thinks Madtatters did. I also dislike the "I require a good explanation before I unvote" line because it felt like he was already planning to unvote and just needed Madtatters to answer his questions before he does so.
150 - I don't like this post either. Icibalus just clarifies the difference between Madtatter's argument and Osuka's and keeps his vote on Madtatters. This doesn't square with his initial reason of Madtatters quoting a post that says that they are scum. It feels like he found an easy target to leave his vote on.
235 - This is a good question to Pepper. Want to see if there was any follow-up here. I also generally liked Aphix's catch up post (234) but I talked about that earlier.
239 - While I didn't feel that JaeReed and Tatters were aligned when reading the game the first time, I thought this rationale was pretty well-thought out on Aphix's part. That he held onto this reasoning and only gave it after Paul asked also felt town to me (like there was more thought behind the scenes than what he was letting on).
291 - While I don't think it's scummy to want to policy-lynch someone, I don't get why you are policy-lynching if you hate policy-lynching. Although I get why he'd think the lynch is inevitable if the only person arguing against it (JaeReed) is his biggest scumread so I can hardly expect him to "work with" JaeReed to get an alternative lynch. I think that's something Paul hasn't considered in his opening attack D2 which I'll get to in a bit.

NotTheRealPaul:

164, 168 - I like these posts for townreading Tatters at the exact same time I was coming around to leaning town on her.
186, 189 - I don't disagree with anything said here. Icibalus' post

was

bad and the MWAP vote wasn't unreasonable. I think the comment about "mindmelding" is probably something that town says more often than scum. In this case, Paul townread Tatters before JaeReed did and then Paul agreed with JaeReed's MWAP push. So, I overall like these posts. I also liked the comment on Osuka's reversal on Tatters and had the same feeling.
209 - You townlean Pepper for his RVS vote on you?
227 - Your last mention of Pepper was a townlean on him. How come you are now okay with lynching him? That said, I think the willingness to lynch Pepper might point away from a Pepper/Paul scumteam?
237 - This would be a weird post to make to a partner I think.
244 - I think Paul would probably townread Aphix here regardless of alignment. Not sure what to make of him saying Pepper shouldn't be dissuaded of his scumread on Paul (it sort of piggybacks on Aphix's reasoning).
251 - Do you normally push lynches like this as town? You do seem really aggressive here in a way you didn't in the previous game we played together.
262 - You didn't answer my question. Why were you so confident it was a scumclaim when in our previous game, you didn't buy that I was scum even after I said I was scum?
263 - This could actually be Paul genuinely thinking that Aphix was MWAP's partner as if MWAP gave up, then his partner would be pissed off.
280, 281 - I like these two posts because they seem like he's actively scumhunting for MWAP's partners as well as getting frustrated with MWAP's inactivity. I just don't think it's likely that scum would question MWAP's motivation for joining the game.

Osuka:

155 - I don't like this response to MadTatters. Tatters basically said "I'd genuinely like to understand your reasoning for your vote" and Osuka's response amounted to "i don't have to offer my reasoning behind every vote or action." It could partly just be a theory disagreement but giving reasons and allowing your target to respond can help you get a better read. It's rather premature to have already decided who he wanted to lynch on page seven.
172 - I'm not sure what was scummy about the post of MWAP's that you quoted. Mind elaborating?
174 - What of MadTatters' 159 were you townreading? I don't think her tone comes off that much more different than what it was previously. I actually agree with Paul that the turnaround after both Paul and JaeReed townread MadTatters feel like Osuka realized that this lynch wasn't going through and changed course for MWAP instead.
177 - I like this back off though and subsequent pressure vote (again) in 181.
183 - The "if anything I'm the one who should be wary" pings me. If Osuka genuinely thought JaeReed was buddying him, he'd say so. If not, I expect he'd say that they were both town that were townblocking. What I didn't like about the phrasing here is that it seemed like he wanted Yakko to continue to have the impression that JaeReed could be buddying Osuka but not actually want to investigate the matter himself (Yakko already claimed BP so this isn't a question to help him read Yakko). I'm not sure what to make of the fact that JaeReed actually agreed with what Osuka said here.
191 - "He explained himself well after I asked if it was a threat?" Do you mean his 160? How does that alleviate your suspicion of him? If you were talking about 159, then same question.
225 - I liked the "too nice" characterization of JaeReed since I got some of those vibes myself and wondered if he was scum for it although it seems to have just been an IC thing.
229 - Conflicted on this one but want to make a note of it. How does most of his content strike you? Why no follow up D2 on this?
271 - I think the argument that "MWAP is scum" and "Aphix knows MWAP will flip town" are a bit contradictory. I'm not really sure whether Osuka thinks MWAP will flip town or scum here. On the one hand, he's pushing the lynch through with statements like "if you think it is not (alignment indicative), I have two (bridges to sell you)" while on the other, there's stuff like "he's either gamethrowing town or gamethrowing scum, and in either case i'm fine with getting him lynched" which feels like a policy-esque vote.
283 - The frustration feels townish here. I see what skitter is saying but I don't find it to be as conclusive as she does.

Random (MadTatters):

146 - I thought the "your anger is only proving to me more that you're scum" seemed really naive in a newb-town way and it's one of the posts I really thought was town from Tatters.
151 - A little bit conflicted on this one. I liked the re-iteration of why Osuka was scummy. It sounded like Tatters were clinging to a genuine belief. I didn't like the emphasis on telling Paul that her vote was fake. It sounded like they were trying to placate Paul. I don't understand the reason why Tatters was townreading Paul and Icibalus.
157 - Weird? No idea what this is.
159 - I think this post is more likely to come from town because Tatters is singling out one of the votes on her (Osuka) while townreading two others (Paul and Icibalus) specifically because he didn't have reasoning. That reads like she's scumhunting her wagon. The "go on, lynch me" argument also makes sense if she genuinely thought people are going to look at her scumread Osuka next after her townflip because of the way he pushed her.
214 - I feel like the assumption that everyone caught onto something with MWAP that she, Tatters didn't betrays a town mindset as well as the curiosity in asking people why they want MWAP lynched. It feels like she's trying to learn how to scumhunt as opposed to seeing how she could take advantage of a situation where a townie is under a lot of pressure.
292 - This hammer and reasoning feel like complete bullshit. She was scumreading Osuka before so the turnaround is weird. It's probably the only thing I found scummy in Tatter's D1 but I really hate it.

DoctorPepper's interactions with other slots:

109 - "FOS buddy, vote townie" was a tell I think but I'm not sure I believe that. Agreeing with JaeReed on Tatters seems like he's trying to set Tatters up for a mislynch.
136 - Conflicted on whether this push makes sense for a partner to do.
212 - The counter-offer to Yakko to move to Icibalus doesn't seem like something a partner would do. Disliking the idea of a townblock makes more sense if JaeReed's townreads are actually town so this gives townpoints to Osuka and Paul. I'm not sure what his hesitance to go after Paul says about Paul's alignment.

[BlackVoid]

@BV
Yours wasnt really a scumclaim. Like it kinda was but when I read it and u claimed it was supposed to go in PT it didnt realky make sense.It isnt something I can see u posting accidentally.

Like MWAP just came off as something newbscum would say or gamethrowing scum would say.

That makes sense I suppose. Can you explain why you are townreading me here? You haven't really engaged with anything I had to say whereas we talked quite a bit before you started trusting me in the Space game. It feels like you saw JaeReed and skitter hard-townreading me and townbinned me because you thought I wouldn't be a viable lynch in this game.

[BlackVoid]

Okay. Are you normally this aggressive as town? How would you characterize your scumgame. Is there anything you'd have done differently if you were scum here?

What is your read on Osuka and what do you think about my concerns with him?

How likely do you think it is that Pepper was bussing Aphix?

[BlackVoid]

@Skitter, I got the chance to skim through the game where you and Paul were partners. How would you characterize his scumgame there? Did you think he was more aggressive in pushing mislynches, how did he interact with partners, etc. I skimmed quickly but firsthand information would be more useful here. Also, do you think the things I liked about Paul's play are things he's capable of doing as scum?

[BlackVoid]

@Paul, when you get to it, I'd like answers to the remainder of my questions in my wall. I'd also like it if you discussed all of my reads and not just the one on you. I'll be at work from 4PM to midnight tomorrow but I'll be free on Sunday after 9PM.

[BlackVoid]

These are my thoughts on pages 13 (start of D2) to 20. I need to go to sleep so I'll just post what I have and do the rest tomorrow. @skitter, I laid out my reasons for townreading Paul here in-depth and once you are done reading, I'd be excited to hear your feedback on whether you think the conclusions I drew from them are accurate.

Aphix:

350 - I think the way he described his JaeReed scumread here feels very town. I doubt scum would go out of their way to push JaeReed when they had their hands full with Paul.
402 - This entire post feels very town to me. The desire to get reads out because he's worried about getting lynched in his sleep, the admission that he's not certain about Paul being scum and making sure to bring up that he's scumreading JaeReed who hasn't really attracted that much attention at all.
421 - I liked this response to Osuka's suspicion of him especially since I found Osuka's 418 to be mildly townie.
457 - I think this is town because it would be going a bit too far to insult site meta if he was correctly caught as scum.

NotTheRealPaul:

315 - I don't think this is a bad attack at all. I think Paul wasn't considering that in between those posts, MWAP became really destructive but I can still see why Aphix's initial townread on MWAP followed by a policy-lynch was scummy to Paul. I also think the aphix push in the face of resistance from skitter felt more like town believing what he's pushing than scum opportunism.
332 - If Paul is scum here nakedly quoting his partner, he's got balls. I think it's unusual for scum to be that blatant towards a partner.
338 - I liked that Paul went back to check how the lynch went down and think that the way he developed his attack here looked town. I do think he missed the fact that Aphix was hard-scumreading JaeReed to the point of looking for JaeReed's partners and in Aphix's mind, JaeReed's support doesn't really mean anything because he's not going to get a scum lynch by collaborating with JaeReed to lynch outside of MWAP. So, policy-lynching MWAP would have been the best course of action there.
348 - Reads like conf-biased townie getting more and more convinced Aphix is scum when Aphix votes him back.
351 - How did Aphix change from scum to wrong here? But I liked that Paul was agreeing with Aphix's JaeReed push while continuing to push him. Not a fan of the "I hate being paranoid so I'm rolling with town!Jae" but I think it matches how he treated skitter in our past game when I suspected her.
361 - Thoughts on Tatters mirror mine pretty closely. The insistence on getting Aphix to explain feels like he really cares about the answer which points to genuine scumhunting. Not sure what to make of Pepper consistently being on the periphery of his reads as a third scumread but I think it's reasonable to see Tatters as scummier than Pepper, and his attack on Aphix was well elaborated.
368 - I actually thought the "I wanna get mled rn just to show skitters cant meta me yet" would be a weird mindset to fake as scum but I can see it coming from frustrated town.
405 - Would change NotTheRealPaul's name to TheRealBalls if he's scum here - for constantly quoting his partner the way he is.
406 - I think the annoyance here is town because while scum can get frustrated at getting caught for the wrong reasons, I don't think Paul is arrogant enough as scum to believe that he shouldn't be scumread. Am I making sense? Let me know if you need this to be rephrased.
430 - More balls of steel if Paul is scum here. I think the more likely explanation here is that Pepper is trying to pocket Paul by consistently saying things he knows Paul will agree with.
470 - The "im feeling a bit under the weather rn. ya ik timing is shit.. if u think im scum tryna get out of skitters' trap ur a dick" feels town. I can't see Paul pre-emptively calling people dicks if they correctly scumread him even if for the wrong reasons.

Osuka:

328 - Can you elaborate on your read on Paul, your read on Aphix, and your thoughts on skitter's wall. It's all too vague for me to understand.
330 - Why was Pepper probably town here? None of these reads make sense to me. For instance the aphix read "I think you're town but I'm suspicious of you for no reason other than gut, unless you count the fact that icibalus was super weird - though i'm willing to let that go since you're townier than he was." Nothing here explains what you are townreading and what you find scummy.
370 - I don't agree with Osuka's take on Aphix here. I think the point that Aphix only pushed Paul after Skitter did was a good one. But I don't see what's so "gross" or "super-fabricated" about the first post he quoted (345), nor how 350 is necessarily scum-motivated. I get the vibe that Osuka was trying to align himself with Paul and against Aphix.
288 - Two problems here. Voting just to see "how full of shit" the conf-town is, is strange. Tatters gaining townpoints for the display of "coherence" in 380 blows my mind because it's fairly rare to see a post

that

incoherent. She didn't even agree with your reasoning for pushing Aphix, she just omgus'd Aphix for entering the game by pushing her and said that you and Aphix were her scumreads but you dropped off (why?), then wrote a jumble of words about pairing her two biggest scumreads which I still don't understand. Perhaps you can break down her post and explain what she meant?
412 - I actually like the defense of Paul here and the Aphix vote because he doesn't want a wagon on his townread to pick up.
440 - Can you explain why "doing fuck all to thwart his wagon" is scummy? It's not beneficial for either alignment but if I stretch, I can maybe see town not trying to talk their way out of a lynch thinking it'll help remove a distraction and catch scum in future days. But scum have even more motivation to survive.

Random (MadTatters):

380 - This post is a bit frustrating to read because nothing is explained, just saying that reads became stronger and weaker. Then just votes the popular wagon Aphix. Combined with the MWAP hammer out of nowhere, I get the feeling that MadTatters is just opportunistically going along with popular consensus lynches.
425 - I liked the caution here and wanting to re-evaluate although I don't think it points to Tatters-town that strongly.
480 - Another frustrating post with the same stuff about how her biggest scumreads changed but no reasoning why.
496 - I actually like Tatters' reason for voting Aphix: because Icibalus kept his vote on her even after she explained herself. Whether it's reasonable to place that much importance on it so late into the game is another matter. I don't like how she's giving everyone the run-around when asked for reads though.

DoctorPepper's interactions with other slots:

372 - This vote on Aphix could go either way I think. He could have seen that town were jumping all over Aphix and joined the wagon or he thought that his buddy was under pressure and that he needed to push here.
393 - While it's certainly possible that he's defending a buddy in Paul here, I think it more likely points to Paul as town because the confidence with which he puts down Aphix's scumslip argument would be hard to fake if Paul was his buddy. Pepper would know that Aphix found a legit scumslip and pushing back so hard would be risky. But if he knew Aphix was wrong, he'd have a lot more confidence pushing Aphix for something that he knows is objectively wrong.
396, 397 - I'm torn between whether he's coaching his partner Tatters or whether he's discouraging a town-Tatters from scumreading him by misrepresenting her reads as based on activity. I think Tatters responding by saying "no they aren't" feels more likely town though because I expect she'd change her reads if her buddy was coaching her and suggesting that she should.
428, 429 - I think the confidence with which he's defending Paul and attacking Aphix makes me think they're both town and Pepper is piggybacking on a town-Paul's push on town-Aphix and using that to get a mislynch.
433 - Trying to decide if he's tying a townie to a partner (who he doesn't have to push if Aphix flips town) or is just trying to make his Aphix read seem more legitimate by presenting a possible partner.
498 - More townpoints for Paul here. I can't see Pepper's main point against Aphix being that he correctly caught a scum-Paul scumslipping.

[BlackVoid]

So to summarize, I don't think Aphix or Paul are scum. I hated Icibalus' posts but Aphix really did redeem that slot and while I'm not without paranoia of Paul, I think his play makes far more sense as town and there are some interactive tells with Pepper where he doesn't fit as a partner.

I think scum are within Osuka and Randomidget (Tatters). I'll read the rest of the game tomorrow afternoon to see which I think it is.

[BlackVoid]

Found a recent game of randomidget's where he townreads a dead player upon replacing in before he catches himself. So, that seems like the sort of thing he'd genuinely do and not alignment indicative.

[BlackVoid]

Please post more comments about the game. I'm trying to decide whether your slot or Osuka is the final scum.

[BlackVoid]

Am I expected to respond to skitters' walls too? Bcuz like thats a lotta walls. Or are skitters and BV just bouncing stuff off each other?

You don't really have an opinion you want to interject with? This whole game, you've been letting me and skitter talk about you while directly engaging me only a limited amount. Do you have any scumreads at this point?

@Skitter - I read your post last night and slept over it. Some of your points made me second-guess my read especially the links from his previous scumgame where he was blatantly buddying you. I'll look again more closely when I get back from work tonight. And I'd love to hydra with you sometime!

[BlackVoid]

Great timing. I'm back. So, do you want to walk me through your scumread on Aphix? He addressed the original reason you were suspecting him (for voting MWAP despite townreading him earlier). What do you think of his response and my reasons for townreading him?

[BlackVoid]

I was leaning towards Osuka as well. My post where I explain my thoughts on the remainder of the game is in progress but I hated 509. It didn't feel like he was actually scumhunting, more like just throwing down stuff that looked like justification for a read.

[BlackVoid]

Well, you replaced into a thirty page game so I'd expect you wanted to read it? I do have a question though - how did you go from MadTatters is null to "Tatters was so scummy, why weren't they lynched yet" in a span of three minutes?

@Paul - good luck with school. Hope to see you around.

I'll post my catchup which is almost done and then I'll get to skitter's latest post. I do need to read the Paul scumgame more closely as well as a few of Osuka's games before I feel confident in my reads though.

[BlackVoid]

My thoughts on the rest of the game picking up from my last post. Now I'll check out Paul's scumgame and a few of Osuka's games. By the way, Osuka recently completed another newb-scumgame so there's more to work with.

Aphix:

568 - His paranoia of a Paul/JaeReed scumteam distancing from each other while trying to get him lynched felt genuine and I could see why he'd think that.

NotTheRealPaul:

516 - This feels a lot like coaching.
554 - Agree with JaeReed here that it doesn't feel like a scum gambit. I think it's illogical obviously given skitter won't be alive to reset but I see this post coming more from an emotionally frustrated place than a logical one.
562 - I think not wanting to make mylo is something that makes sense as town in his position.
737 - Fairly small point but I liked that he was willing to vote Pepper since Aphix wasn't going to go through. That's a pretty noticeable contrast to how Osuka treated the DP lynch.
775, 778 - Don't like either of these posts. I think Paul was definitely townreading JaeReed for a good part of the game and never seemed to have townread DP so the "why do we believe Jae over DP" felt weird coming from him.

Osuka:

509 - How has Aphix done an "ass job defending himself?" As I listed out in my previous post, he has done a lot of genuine scumhunting and taken positions that don't make much sense for scum to take (like the JaeReed scumread for "whiteknighting"). Suggesting he's not scumhunting anymore or trying to lynch people is veering into blatantly false territory when he's been pushing Paul as well as questioning multiple people. This is a really bad post that feels like Osuka is stretching to justify a scumread on the mislynch of the day.
520 - I have no idea how Aphix last post changed his mind here when Aphix had been making similar posts all day. This feels a lot like Osuka's back-off of Tatters on D1 where he meets resistance and changes direction. Skitter throwing out JaeReed as a possible lynch seems to have been the trigger here and he says he's okay with it. But the last time he expressed any suspicion of JaeReed at all was in 414 where he was a fourth choice behind Aphix, DP, and Ciara. I think he was too quick to jump on the JaeReed wagon without trying to pivot to DP whom skitter had also expressed suspicion of.
544 - I like that he included DP in his willing to lynch list. But the list pretty much contains everyone except his townread Paul and his recent townread Aphix.
572 - How did Aphix jump right back into your lynchpool? I also find it odd in hindsight that Osuka suggests a Ciara lynch but not a Pepper lynch even though they were both listed as equally scummy in his readslist. I get the vibe that he's buddying Paul and is okay lynching pretty much anyone else and while he doesn't really townread Pepper, he also doesn't try to sway the lynch towards Pepper.
688, 689 - I don't understand the "there's one hour to the deadline and her laywer goes for the insanity defense, we're all fucked." It doesn't say anything about the likelihood of Tatters being scum (he actually says she's nulltown) but doesn't want to try to lynch her because she might wiggle her way out by acting like she's insane?
691 - JaeReed being a scumread for the Tatters push is somewhat plausible since I got weird vibes from it as well.
693 - In hindsight, I don't like this post. He lays out a bunch of reasons why Pepper is suspect, says he'd rather not lynch the slot which prevents momentum from turning Pepper's way but leaves an out to hammer if it's unavoidable. If a slot is low content and hard to read, that actually makes it a

good

deadline lynch and removes a question mark slot.
694 - I remember not liking this read on me when I first read it. There's a bit too much emphasis on Ciara but I don't really understand what it was about Ciara that Osuka was scumreading. She seemed to be in the lynchpool through process of elimination, and then I came in and made towny posts and now I'm null?
730 - Another post I dislike where he advocates lynching me over DP. BV is acting pretty blatantly town but because I've had a scumpartner do that, I'm down to lynch him? That's really terrible reasoning. It felt like he was banking on a JaeReed mislynch while having DP as a peripheral suspect that he wasn't intending to bus. But when JaeReed claimed, he had to scramble to get another lynch so he tries to brush his DP suspicion aside because "hard read/low content" and lynch me despite being "blatantly town" because Ciara was in his POE pool. This is actually a really incriminating post because DP and Ciara were both in his POE pool before. I came in and according to him played in a towny way. So, that means he should be more willing to lynch DP but he instead tries to minimize my town play and continue to try to lynch me while pushing aside his DP read. Skitter is right in 731 that DP has been in Osuka's scumpool for ages but never really pushed him but that people aren't really pushing anyone so it's hard to tell. I'll add that when push came to shove and the JaeReed mislynch was no longer on the table, Osuka didn't fall back on his scumpool and lynch DP. Instead, he tried to justify not lynching DP with very bad reasoning (low content, hard to read).
747 - This does feel like he resigned himself to a Pepper lynch after three of us voted there. Not sure how alignment-indicative this is though.
748 - His tone changes a bit after voting where he questions the townread on DP whereas before he was arguing against it. I think the premise behind the question is flawed here. Obviously town-DP would be resistant to a Paul lynch (much like Osuka himself) if he was genuinely townreading Paul and didn't want to lynch him. This post reads like now he's committed to bussing DP, he changed course and started being in favor of DP lynch.
844 - I continue to dislike Osuka's read on me. "Obvtown but gets meanie points through POE" does not make any sense whatsoever. The entire point of using POE is because you have a couple of obvtown reads and you are trying to sort the rest. Paul getting meanie points for not interacting with DP also doesn't make sense since Osuka said himself that DP barely interacted with anyone else. What "POE" is he talking about here?

Random (MadTatters):

607 - Unless Tatters is deviously manipulative, this post looks town. I thought the way she was ruling out Aphix/Skitter while being oblivious to skitter being conf-town felt town. The second part also seemed like really naive town thinking they found something smart.
608 - I hated the hammer for different reasons. Really wonder what JaeReed was seeing here.
610 - This is just a bizarre thought process that I don't know what to make of it. I wonder why scum would post this though.

DoctorPepper's interactions with other slots:

614 - Scum points for Tatters for this. I don't see why Pepper would be defending such easy lynchbait here although there's an outside chance he's trying to get Tatters on his side or towncred when she flips.
649 - The Tatters read and MWAP read have a lot of parallels so this could just be trying to pocket a townie.
699 - Not sure what to make of Pepper calling out Osuka's catchup as lazy. I think in a scum-Osuka world, it probably means he's trying to distance especially since an Osuka lynch did not seem likely at that point but I really need to read some of Osuka's other games to check what his general playstyle is like.

Anyways, @skitter, I'm curious to hear your thoughts on Osuka in general. While you're placing a lot of importance on a single event (frustration at MWAP), I think it's a lot easier to fake isolated reactions than keep it up consistently over the whole game. He's my best guess for scum right now.

[BlackVoid]

@Osuka, here are the biggest questions I have from your responses:

1. I don't understand your stance on pressuring lurkers. You pressured MWAP because he wasn't posting content in what you call a "bully wagon" (225) which I'm taking to mean that you are pressuring him into posting content. But you say you didn't pressure DP early D2 because "

having a wagon on a lurker who I read nullscum and really isn't gonna give that much information

." That feels contradictory. If you thought bullying MWAP into posting content would work, you can certainly pressure DP as well to see how he reacts to the wagon. What's the difference?

2. I wouldn't mind talking about 159 more. Can you elaborate on what sounded genuine?

3. Regarding Aphix, I didn't say that Aphix did nothing to thwart the wagon. You did. My question is that even if you genuinely believe that he did nothing to thwart the wagon, why would it be scummy? I thought Aphix spent a lot of time scumhunting and pushing people who it didn't make sense for scum to push in that position (like JaeReed who was townreading him).

4. Why was Ciara scummy? You've actually said

nothing

about Ciara other than agree with her that Icibalus' slot was scum in 225, and put her in a POE pool in 414. You also later suggested "compromise-lynching" Ciara which doesn't feel you had a particularly strong scumread. But after I replaced in, you place a lot of emphasis on the fact that Ciara's scummy posting cancels out my town posting which is weird.

5. Ciara and Pepper actually had a similar amount of content. Both players posted very little. I don't understand why Ciara was an okay lynch but Pepper wasn't just because he was low-content. I don't know what to make of you saying you genuinely didn't consider that a low content slot would be a good deadline lynch but I have a hard time buying it considering you are fine "compromise" lynching Ciara in 572. These reasons only seem to apply to DP. Ciara and DP were also on the same read level in your 414 so I don't get why you're okay lynching Ciara but were reluctant to lynch Pepper.

[BlackVoid]

@Archwing - when you come back, can you explain what of 457 was awful and why Osuka having DP in his scumpool makes you think he's town? Did you feel he was against scumreading his partner in the game you've played with him? I'd also be interested in your take in what scum-Osuka plays like and why you think this is not it.

@Randomidget - how was MadTatters "really hypocritical and pushing people that weren't addressing them?" Why is it scummy? I know this is a weird question to ask about a slot you replaced but I'm interested in seeing whether you genuinely believed that or were just trying to get towncred off of "why would scum say the person they replaced is scummy" type thing. You also asked if someone could summarize a case on Osuka. I essentially did that. What's your response? When you finish reading, can you list out your reads and explain them?

@Skitter, looking forward to it. I'm around for another hour or two.

[BlackVoid]

@Osuka, I have read the game very thoroughly and I can confidently say you've never stated a single reason why Ciara was scummy. You've interacted with Ciara twice (257, 328) and both those posts are completely mundane. In the first, you tell her that MWAP will never produce worthwhile content. In the second, you answer her question about your read on Paul. Then comes your 414 where she's in your POE pile. Then 554 and 572 where you'd be "willing to lynch Ciara"/"compromise on Ciara." I also have a hard time reading your 414 and believing that you didn't mean for DP and Ciara to be at a similar level of suspicion. If I'm somehow skimmed over a Ciara case, link me to it.

I don't think your stance on lurkers is consistent at all. You argued against a DP lynch on the grounds of him being a hard-to-read/low-content slot but he's not unique in that regard. Ciara and MWAP both fit that pattern but you were okay pressuring MWAP for content early on, and you were fine deadline-lynching Ciara. I've re-read my post and I can't see how I've misrepped anything here.

[BlackVoid]

Oh hey. I'm on too lol. I'm going through DP's interactions now, going to go through the you/osuka after if I don't get too tired tonight.

I think the core of my point comes down to him listing out three people in his POE pool in 414 (DP, Ciara, maybe JaeReed) and being willing to lynch only two of them (he tried getting a deadline lynch on my slot before I replaced in, he was happy to lynch JaeReed), but when momentum started swinging towards DP, he was reluctant to go for it. Given DP's flip, I find this very incriminating for Osuka.

[BlackVoid]

I had read the recently completed Osuka scumgame and the thing that struck me was that he played exactly the way JaeReed described a

different

scumgame, constantly putting people down and criticizing pushes and I was wondering if I was just wrong here. I still don't know who fits here if not Osuka though based on evidence in this game. I'll respond to latest posts in a bit.

[BlackVoid]

@skitter, as to why DP was swooping in to defend Paul if Paul is town, I'd expect it's because as scum, if you find a townie you can really relate to and understand and who is under pressure, it makes sense to jump in and defend them and base your scumgame around them. For instance, when I play scum, if there is a townie under pressure who I think I would townread if I were town, who posts a lot and has a lot of strong opinions, I'd support them and help them push their suspects. DP defending Paul and helping Paul push Aphix makes sense in that context. With that said, I haven't ruled out Paul/Archwing. I can see where you are coming from with Randomidget. I think his reads are just so different from popular concensus, it didn't seem like he came into the game with any sort of agenda. If scum, he could potentially win by lynching Paul/Archwing and Osuka and didn't need to push against you/me/aphix townreading each other. But then he pushes against aphix which feels more like clueless town. Do you think Osuka could have feasibly forced a no lynch and gotten away with it given his read on DP? He consistently had DP in his scumpile so it would look weird if he dug his heels in against the lynch.

@randomidget, what "towncred" can be expected from defending MWAP? If anything the opposite happened. What were you thinking Aphix's plan was here? That everyone would see MWAP's flip and go "well, Aphix correctly called him town. Aphix must also be town?" I want a little bit of elaboration here.

@Archwing, skitter asked most of the questions I wanted to ask you. I'd also like to know why are explaining Paul's play when no one expected you to answer for him? And to explain what looked "bitter and lacking" about 457 because it doesn't come across that way to me. I'm not sure why you think DP claiming a JK on your slot would lose the game if you're both scum. To answer your question about my reads: Aphix is my strongest townread and I'm trying to engage you and randomidget to see more of your thought process and see where I am. Osuka is still my best guess for scum but I'm not fully confident in that read and am keeping my mind open that I could be wrong there. I still don't see anything he's done this game as particularly town, and his play around the DP lynch was scummy. I'm talking more about how he tried to deflect the lynch from DP, suggested compromise-lynching my slot, and pushed JaeReed, and basically did anything he could to avert a DP lynch despite having DP in his lynchpool - until it was obvious that he couldn't. He was V/LA a lot this game so I wouldn't expect him to be as aggressive here as in his previous games. If you want to convince me he's town, show me what he did in this game that was town-motivated. I'd place a lot more value in that than the fact that he did something in his scumgames that he's not doing here because that's something that can change from game to game and we don't have towngames to compare to.

[BlackVoid]

We have a completed Osuka towngame now: Open 696.

[BlackVoid]

Why would it be a terrible play by DP to claim to jail you if your slot had been his scumpartner? You're sort of parroting what I said about DP piggybacking off of your slot and it's making me uncomfortable.

You still haven't answered my question regarding what it is about Osuka's play here that was town-motivated and pretty much haven't answered anything I wrote in that paragraph. What does "bitter and lacking" mean about 457. What makes it scum motivated? Why didn't you comment on my point regarding how Osuka acted towards the end of the day? Why haven't you commented on my point that he had three people in his POE pool and only pushed two but was reluctant to lynch the only person in there that flipped scum?

[BlackVoid]

Also, I don't think skitter is necessarily taking issue with your read being wonky. It's more that your read changes based on what her read is so it seems more an accusation of aligning your reads with the conf-town as opposed to just the read changing. "Your read is wonky too" isn't an adequate response to that.

[BlackVoid]

the hypocrisy was over their scumread of ciara. the pushing without addressing is shown in 131 and 148 when they talk about the scumread on osuka, despite not having direct interactions yet they talk about the slot without talking to them. they then ask one question in an attempt to "sort" the slot but follows that immeadiately with a vote.

Why is it scummy to talk about a slot without addressing them? How was Tatters' scumread on Ciara hypocritical?

Who is scum and why? Who is your strongest townread and why?

[BlackVoid]

@aphix, what do think about Archwing's read on Osuka?

[BlackVoid]

Hey, I've been on mafiascum for exactly one year! Didn't even notice but for that cake sign. Catching up now but I have to work tomorrow morning so I'm going to do a quick catch up. Should be online for the next half hour or so if anyone wants real time discussion.

[BlackVoid]

I'm in a similar place as you with regard to Archwing/Osuka except I lean more towards Osuka as scum. Interactions-wise, Paul/Pepper does make some sense. Paul's coaching of Pepper was weird and the constant quoting of Pepper points more towards partners than away after understanding Paul's scum mentality and seeing how he engaged you in his scumgame. I was definitely townleaning Paul while I spectated that game. I also agree meta-wise that Osuka's play here looks different than it does in his scumgame.

The major argument in favor of Osuka being the final scum is that I see the way Pepper superficially attacked Osuka while focusing elsewhere, and the fact that Pepper seemed to be obviously buddying Paul and pushing Paul's scumreads and on balance, I think I find the Osuka interactions more likely to be scum to scum than the Paul ones which I think make sense as scum interacting with a townie.

I do want to hash this out though because I'd much prefer just ending the game today rather than going into lylo where you never know what might happen. I think what'll best help me is if you point out any reasons why Osuka might be town.

The fact that he's less aggressive and controlling than in his scumgames isn't fully convincing to me because I know he's been on V/LA and that would affect how he engages with the game.

When I point out my strongest reason for scumreading him, he screams misrep but does absolutely nothing to question me further or even ask why you are townreading me. He also leaves it really ambiguous - I'm not even sure if he's saying that my "misrep" points to me being scum. He also never addresses my questions about why he was scumreading Ciara in the first place. I laid it all out pretty clearly and pointed out why his selective pushing of my slot and JaeReed but not DP is scummy in light of the flip and the only response he has is "misrep!" If I'm wrong here, it would definitely help if you read over my case and show me where you think I'm going wrong.

[BlackVoid]

919 and 926 are the major points.

[BlackVoid]

Distilling it down to a single point, I don't see any town motivation in trying to divert away from a Pepper lynch on the basis of low content/hard to read while being okay with a Ciara lynch especially when Pepper and Ciara were both in his POE pool. I don't see why pressuring Pepper for content was a bad idea when it apparently wasn't a bad idea to bully MWAP into posting content. I think it's weird as heck that he's fine lynching two people that I know to be town in his lynchpool (JaeReed and Ciara) but not fine lynching the one person who we know is scum (Pepper). On the flip side, there's tons of scum motive to play that way if he's Pepper's partner.

[BlackVoid]

How was Osuka's play around the DP lynch town? I explained to skitter why I thought it was scummy so maybe explain why it's town? You keep making general statements without explaining anything and that's hard to read.

[BlackVoid]

Why is Randomidget scum, Archwing?

[BlackVoid]

Comparing Paul's interactions with DP against Osuka's, I agree that DP was mostly in the periphery of Paul's reads and he never really made a strong push there. I don't think it's unlikely though for town to have flipped scum as a secondary or third scumread. My issue with Osuka comes more from the fact that he acted inconsistently towards DP than he did towards others like Ciara and MWAP and wasn't enthusiastic about the DP lynch when by his logic, he should have been.

I do think that Paul's townread on me for "effort" is really bad. It lacks any sort of depth that Paul had when we played together before.

I'm going to give one final shot at seeing Osuka as town and considering a worldview where Archwing is the final scum and figure out where I stand and put down a vote either tonight or tomorrow morning.

@Archwing, I need you explain why you are scumreading randomidget. The way it's shaping up where me and skitter are narrowing it down to you and Osuka, I think it's weird that you are not worried about an Osuka townflip making it difficult for you to win in lylo as town. It almost seems like you want to lynch him even though you think he's likelier to flip town than scum. Shouldn't you be spending time explaining why randomidget is the scum?

@Osuka, you've been V/LA for most of today and you're my biggest scumread right now. If you want to convince me I'm wrong, answer all my questions and go through your thought process in detail and respond to my case on you. We have less than two days left. Ball is in your court.

[BlackVoid]

@Aphix, can you elaborate some more on what your reads are outside of Osuka scum? I'd like to hear your thoughts on the new replacements posts so far especially.

[BlackVoid]

Hey Archwing, explain this:

414 osuka gets DP right. Makes me think Osuka town. I've seen scumsuka... I don't think this is it. although this is only 2nd game ever.

In the game you played, scum-Osuka put his partner in his scumpool:

I'm willing to lynch {gorny, kts, singer}. I'm not opposed to a wh4t lynch even though I think there's a very decent chance she'll flip town and even info-wise, she's a very shitty lynch

How did you conclude that he's town from stuff he's done as scum before in a game you played with him?

[BlackVoid]

@aphix, indulge me and give me a summary of your reads with maybe a sentence or so reasoning for each. A lot has happened over the past few days and I want to make sure I'm not overlooking anyone.

@Archwing, two things: first off, I simply don't get what "paper trail" DP would be leaving by claiming that he JK'd your slot. It says nothing about your alignment. This argument that it supposedly makes you scummy but because you look scummy from it, it actually points to you being town because DP wouldn't make his partner look scummy is such twisted WIFOM I don't know why you are even bothered to bring up as a reason for you being town. Secondly, why would you accept your own lynch? If you are town, it's best to lynch scum, but the second best option would be to just out-survive everyone else and your chances of winning increase if you make it all the way to the end since you get to flip more people. In other words, you get two shots at lynching your scumreads if you don't get lynched but only one if you do.

Oh, hey skitter!

[BlackVoid]

@Skitter, I'm at a similar place. I do want to make sure we're correct in ruling out Aphix before we end the day. What do you think of his posts today, his push on Osuka, and his interaction with the new replacements?

Regarding Osuka, his last few posts continuing to call my push bad/misreppy where I think it makes perfect sense just makes me more confident in wanting to flip him. I feel like like town would understand that my reasoning is valid and recognize that he just winded up being in the wrong place at the wrong time with how he was reluctant to lynch DP but pushed my slot and JaeReed and that from an outside perspective, it looks scummy and explain why. Only problem is I don't know him well enough to know if that's something he'd recognize. His posts feel pretty detached from the gamestate though and I'm not sure what it says about his alignment.

Archwing's posts continue to be weird. I did think that him looking over other games was townish since it's less common for scum to go to that effort but I'm not really sold that the way he did it was particularly towny.

[BlackVoid]

I don't know if I'm getting conf-biased with Osuka but the last time I second-guessed a scumread because they were being annoying/frustrating, they endgamed me and that was the worst loss I had as town because I really didn't feel like they deserved it.

[BlackVoid]

Some of the stuff that's been tipping the scales for me towards scum-Osuka over scum-Paul.

189 - I liked this post. Paul made it when Osuka was not scumreading him or attacking him in any way and I thought it was a good point with regard to how Osuka backed off. You know scum-Paul better than I do but I felt like it was an unnecessary thing to say as scum (potentially antagonize Osuka) but a very good point to make as town.

The Aphix push was started by Paul and Osuka was just piggybacking off of it. How likely is it for scum-Paul to take the initiative to lead a wagon? Personally, I found the timing of Osuka's jump to Aphix a lot safer (if scum, he'd be helping his town buddy Paul push the lynch - that worldview makes more sense).

[BlackVoid]

What do you think of lynching Osuka first and going for Archwing if he's town?

[BlackVoid]

I'm going to sleep on this so I'm absolutely sure. If nothing changes, I'm voting Osuka before I leave for work tomorrow at 11AM. Should be back by the evening well before deadline but I'd rather just end the day with a few hours to spare. Don't want the same situation as D2 where we're wondering if people will even show up to vote.

[BlackVoid]

Yeah, I know you said that. I guess I was talking to myself and hoping you'd have some really good insight as to why one of them is town...

[BlackVoid]

And part of the reason is that I expect Osuka to be more likely than Archwing to slip away in 3-way lylo if I'm dead after you considering his winrate as scum so far.

[BlackVoid]

Archwing's RM push

is

bad though. @Archwing, your focus has not been on avoiding an Osuka lynch. You literally said you'd be okay with lynching him despite thinking that he'll flip town and in the next post you say that your focus has been on not lynching Osuka.

[BlackVoid]

Do you think my points in 1003 make sense?

[BlackVoid]

You said you read through Osuka's scumgame. Did you read Archwing's town ISO in it? I'm curious to hear whether you thought his play here is different?

[BlackVoid]

VOTE: Osuka

My best guess at this point. If not, I think it's Archwing. @Archwing, you should vote. The day ends tonight and it's unlikely anyone outside you or Osuka is going to get lynched. Your randomidget case is really unconvincing. I'm not 100% on Osuka but I'll be here all evening after I come back from work to continue discussing. If everyone could say when they are available before deadline, that would be cool.

[BlackVoid]

Back and catching up. I saw Osuka's vote on me on my phone during a work break. Initial instinct was to think of it as a towntell. But I still hate that he claims that I'm "somehow" scumreading him when I explained exactly why in extensive detail - so even if he disagrees, he knows why. I also considered that he could be doing it just for the towncred as a last ditch attempt. It really does make me wonder if I was wrong though. I'm torn between switching over to Archwing and just wanting to lynch Osuka because if we reward anti-town play and he wins as scum, that would be pretty awful. I asked him multiple times to explain the dissonance in his DP read vs others and he hasn't been able to give anything.

There's like zero motivation for scum!osuka to start a BV thing here when he can just go along with Archwing and push RM tomorrow.

I'm the one that's tunneling him though. He's got a better chance getting random to vote me in lylo than the other way around.

[BlackVoid]

That latest post really makes me think he's scum though.

[BlackVoid]

Why do you think Archwing is town, Osuka?

[BlackVoid]

Why? Paul's meta is something me and skitter discussed pretty extensively so "Paul is town based on meta" sort of ignores all of that. What of Paul's game comes across as his towngame to you? Because right now I have it down to either you or Archwing so you're either wrong or you are scum that knows he's town and I'm trying to figure out which it is.

[BlackVoid]

W/e. I really do hope you replace out if we no lynch.

[BlackVoid]

Yeah, basically I think he wants Archwing alive because if he's scum, then Archwing is a huge distraction. Also, the game going to 3P means that one townie making a mistake is all it takes to hand scum the win. We're here now and we're arguing against Aphix-scum. But in a hypothetical Osuka/RM/Aphix lylo, RM voting Aphix isn't at all unlikely. The game changes a bit because it takes just one bad vote for town to lose. Also, if Osuka feels like Archwing is someone he can pocket, he'd want him alive for support.

[BlackVoid]

5 hours, 45 minutes. Randomidget disappering and Archwing not showing up is super-annoying. He's not even voting anyone.

@Archwing, if you show up before deadline, please vote Osuka to avoid no lynch.

[BlackVoid]

Yeah, I understand what you are saying.

This no lynch push confirmed my suspicions that he just wanted more leverage with 5 players alive minus you. I wish I didn't wait till the final day to put down a vote and people just not showing up at a critical time is really annoying me.

[BlackVoid]

I also found it super-weird he didn't directly address you about your townread on me given you are conf-town. If he actually wanted to make any progress, just asking "skitter, why are you townreading BV? I think he's full of shit because of so and so reasons" would be much more productive than random shade-throwing like "why is he being townread?" that goes nowhere. Also, you pretty much have the same position as me so trying to convince you that both he and Arch are town would be a priority I think.

[BlackVoid]

I'm

way

too involved to be scum here.

[BlackVoid]

Hell, yeah! Feels good to win a game after spending so much time solving it. Thanks for modding, Alisae. I don't have any feelings about FOS mechanic unfortunately. Didn't change the way I played so I'm fairly neutral on this.

Pepper, and Osuka, good try. You gave us a challenge. Especially liked Osuka's "resigned to a lynch" vote on me at the end there.

I'm glad Archwing managed to cast the winning hammer before the thread got locked. I do think we had this locked down to one of {Archwing, Osuka} but it feels much better to end the game right away and not mislynch any townies. As to your question about meta, I think it can be useful if you've played with that person before. Glancing through someone's completed games can't hurt either. But I'd place more stock on their play in the current game and maybe use meta as supporting evidence?

Aphix, nice job on nailing down Osuka. I was definitely re-assessing and second-guessing every read. I doubt you would have been lynched in this game though and I'm glad you re-evaluated your Paul scumread.

Skitter, gamesolving with you was awesome. Beats the hell out of tunneling each other any day! You really made it difficult for scum to get mislynches through by stopping the Aphix mislynch D2 and then continuing to defend Aphix and townreading me even when Osuka was pushing back. That made it difficult for him to get a foothold and gave me space to push my scumread. Game would have gone down very differently if you weren't here. And we should definitely hydra sometime soon!

PM'd Paul and told him we won without lynching his slot but I don't know if he's going to come back anytime soon.

[BlackVoid]

And thanks for the nice words in the dead pt transcend, Alisae's probably right that large games would be harder. I can't see myself enjoying trying to read like twenty players at once. We should definitely play again sometime!

[BlackVoid]

Personally I think larger games that go on for months and for hundreds of pages detract from the level of depth with which you can look at games. From what I've read, I haven't seen anyone be able to thoroughly read and analyze a large game. Probably the "gut" players who don't care about that sort of thing would enjoy them.

[BlackVoid]

Something I forgot to mention: when a slot needs replacement, you're better off extending the deadline until one is found rather than force town to lynch with one slot empty. D2 for instance, with Tatters not there, we needed 5/5 town votes to get a scum lynch. If Osuka hadn't bussed, it would not have been possible unless every single town player voted scum. I also thought giving me only 48 hours to read was kinda cutting it close. That one is a more minor problem but I'm sure what the motivation is to keep rushing the game.

[BlackVoid]

*not sure what the motivation is to keep rushing the game.

[BlackVoid]

I'm not really that bothered about only being given 48 hours. I disagree but I understand your decision. I'm more concerned about not extending the deadline when Tatters needed a replacement.