Newbie 1815: Prisons [Endgame]
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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Whoa, hang on right there. A big part of the reason I replaced in was because I saw you were being obvtown and I thought this might be fun to bounce ideas around.In post 583, NotTheRealPaul wrote:honestly im prob replacing out overnight cuz ive stopped giving shits about this game.
@Skitter, don't think it'll be a problem this time on my end.-
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Okay, I was following the game but only skimming and I'm going to catch up page by page now. This won't be pretty but since I only have 48 hours, I'm just going to post my thoughts as I read and maybe do a condensed version after that.
@Skitter, I'll talk to you about why I think Paul is town once I finish my catchup and unlike last time, I should be done in a few hours.
UNVOTE: until I decide where I want my vote.-
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I'm fully caught up which is cool but now I have to leave for work. While I don't have many strong reads, I have a bunch of thoughts about the game which I'm going to start laying out after I return in about ~7 hours.
In the meantime, feel free to sell me on it. The biggest thing I remember off of memory is that you thought his switch to voting MWAP was scummy when he had previously called MWAP town and didn't respond to your question. What did you think of his response when he finally gave it?In post 593, NotTheRealPaul wrote:also bv hi! can u plz lynch aphix with me? skitters is being a pain-
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I'll post comments/questions to everyone to help me solidify my reads. Starting with Aphix since he's a major point of discussion.
Aphix:
Pretty sure he is town. First off, there's the suspicion of JaeReed in his opening post 234. I find it town because I don't think replacing into the game by pushing the widely townread IC makes sense as a scum strategy. I also agree with 350. I liked JaeReed's initial posts but thought he was coasting later on and pretty much reached the same conclusion Aphix did.
Then there's his general reaction to the heat on him. Most of D2, Aphix was under a lot of pressure but he's still pushing against one of only two people townreading him (JaeReed), and townreading someone who seems very sure that he's scum (Osuka). I think Aphix's reads are coming from a genuine place as opposed to reads that would be convenient for scum to have. For example, he could have easily made an ally in JaeReed but he doesn't, and seems more worried about potential towncred JaeReed might get on his townflip for "whiteknighting." I felt his general frustration with everyone for just calling him scum and checking out is something I can relate to from a town viewpoint but would be a bold move as scum. I think scum in his position would be more interested in seeing who they can persuade and bring to their side rather than just lash out at everyone. I see town doing the latter because people not being active means he can't get reliable reads on them so that's an additional layer of frustration that scum wouldn't have even if they got universally scumread.
A couple of questions though: Can you also elaborate on why Madtatters was a scumread at the point you replaced in? Specifically, what do you mean by 214 not being the usual distrust you see from a town player. What were you expecting from town there?
What's the point of 385? By announcing that you're going to scumread whoever hammers early, you are basically warning scum away from doing it. If you hadn't said anything and got hammered early, that would be a lot more useful to catch scum off-guard, wouldn't it?-
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Sorry for the delay guys. I had to unexpected go to work this morning to fill in for someone and then I was so tired I went to sleep. But I have thoughts on the game and I'm ready to spend the next few hours churning out content. I'll start with JaeReed since he's my biggest scumread at the moment and then explain my Paul read and if I have time, go over the remaining players.-
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JaeReed:
I liked most of JaeReed's initial questions to everyone and it looked like he was trying to drive the game forward. I didn't like the MWAP push in 166, it being mostly based on active lurking is weird considering JaeReed's earlier stance that activity is not alignment indicative. I did notice the distinction that MWAP apparently seemed caught up and wasn't posting content but I still don't like the general direction of JaeReed's scumreads being people that were mostly low activity (200) while townblocking with active posters (specifically I don't understand the Osuka townread).
My biggest problem though is something similar to what Aphix touched on earlier. I don't think JaeReed is invested in his reads or is attempting to derail lynches on his townreads or direct them towards his scumreads. 287 towards the end of the day is an example of that. There was a lot of momentum for the MWAP lynch at that point and JaeReed seemed to be townreading him. But there's no attempt to try and get people to unvote and look at DoctorPepper more, or appealing to anyone in his townblock to look at DoctorPepper. The way he just stated that he was happy with his DoctorPepper vote feels more like he was expecting the MWAP lynch to go through, for MWAP to flip town, and for him to have a target to push the following day. It didn't seem like he expected his vote on DoctorPepper to do anything nor did it look like he cared.
You said in 195 that Osuka seemed different to how he played in a scumgame of his you were reading. Can you explain what this difference is? I don't understand the basis behind your Osuka townread in the first place. Can you talk about what you mean when you say that he "isn't trying to direct you in any particular way?"
I don't understand why Paul is a scumread based on the no kill. Shooting the BP is the optimal move for scum because it doesn't change the number of mislynches they need to win, and by taking away the bulletproof they have the freedom to get rid of a conf-town later on if they feel the need to. Shooting elsewhere would be a risk since scum might be shooting a potential mislynch and get POE'd more easily if the confirmed town makes it too far into the game. So, I'd expectanyoneto take that shot. I also think it's weird that you were townreading Paul all along until skitter replaced in and started attacking him, and then there's a "vote: Paul, w/e" tone of resignation and then a weird justification for the vote later. Can you go over how your Paul read developed and why the resigned tone?
Two other problems with your nightkill logic: Firstly, Osuka was widely townread as well so it could just as well apply to him as Paul. Secondly, there are two scum so their nightkill would be determined by what benefits both of them so just picking out Paul on the basis of "widely townread player making a no-info kill" seems weird at this point.-
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The other PR didn't claim so you're assuming that mafia know who the other PR is. If they take that gamble and end up shooting a VT, that makes the game much harder for them than just playing it safe and removing the bulletproof from the 1-shot BP. I saw your comment about the kill and your point could be semi-valid if there was a lone scum remaining. But there are two scum so I'm not sure why you are assuming that one of them has to be townread and that it is Paul. Why couldn't Madtatters or DoctorPepper or Aphix make that kill for instance.
On re-read, I noticed that MadTatters quickhammered so you probably didn't have that much time between when MWAP was at L-1 and hammer but why not make a stronger effort to stall the wagon while you figure stuff out or talk to Paul who you were townreading and who was pushing the MWAP wagon the hardest?
Is your read reversal on DoctorPepper based solely on him voting Aphix after Aphix said that Paul scumslipped?-
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One more thing, you are essentially voting Madtatters because you don't want him in lylo. How is that so different than lynching MWAP because he was a destructive to the game and him being alive would be more detrimental to town than just lynching him? Both are essentially "get rid of a distraction moving forward" but you were calling BS on the MWAP lynch while advocating for the Madtatters lynch.
Is it normal for you to not have strong scumreads?-
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Can you link to an example game where you had no strong scumreads?
I still don't get why DoctorPepper's vote on Aphix was so town that it erased all your previous concerns with him being an "opportunistic fuck" about the MWAP lynch. Aphix said Paul scumslipped. Osuka called it bullshit. You agreed and called it even more bullshit. Then DoctorPepper voted Aphix. It was a ridiculously safe vote.-
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Okay but why didn't you already go back to your DoctorPepper suspicion once you concluded that Aphix was most likely town (as opposed to the Madtatter's vote which you didn't seem to have much conviction in)?
I'll skim through those games after I get through everyone else's ISOs here. Thanks for the links.-
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DoctorPepper:
I have conflicting feelings here. I don't find the reasoning behind either of his major pushes compelling. The MWAP vote was basically a policy-lynch for claiming scum. The Aphix vote was purely because Aphix accused Paul of scumslipping (something that Osuka and JaeReed pushed before DoctorPepper did).
But I liked how strongly he was pushing Aphix in 393. He comes across like he really buys into his argument.
Why policy-lynch someone that claimed scum? If you really thought it was a scumclaim, I'd expect something like "well, he gave up and claimed scum so let's lynch him." The policy-lynch phrasing seems like you either knew he was town or didn't really expect him to flip scum there and comes across as not taking responsibility for the flip. Immediately griping about the lynch in 285 right after voting feels weird.
I don't understand your townreads either. JaeReed is still a townread because he proposed a BP-claim strategy? MWAP was town because his posts give off a "vibe of a newb-town player?" What does that mean? You said in 212 that it could be scum acting cautious but you doubt it. Why? Also, how come you were townreading MWAP for being cautious and now townreading MadTatters for not being cautious? A little more elaboration on the distinctions would be nice.-
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NotTheRealPaul:
I've been trying to delay this read partly because I wanted to see Paul engage with me and then read through all of skitters' points more closely but time's running out. I'm actually not as sure about him being town as I was when I replaced in.
My reasons for initially townreading him when I was spectating the game mostly come down to his high activity level D1 and his frustration upon being pressured D2. I felt like he was still trying to accomplish an Aphix lynch despite getting a ton of pressure from Skitter.
Upon reading more closely, I actually agree with Skitter that his reaction to MWAP was somewhat weird.
@Paul, can you explain why you were so convinced on MWAP being scum that you took his scumclaim literally? In the game we played together, I said I was scum and you doubted yourself even after that. That means you know that town can claim scum sarcastically. But here, you seemed absolutely certain with no question that MWAP should be lynched and everyone's next post should be "vote: MWAP."
I also found his reaction to me replacing in and townreading him to be a bit underwhelming. I'm not sure what I expected but he just told me to lynch Aphix and after I invited him to sell me on it and gave reasons why Aphix is town, that read just fell by the wayside and dismissed as gut. I suppose I expected him to engage my points and continue pushing his read because he seemed so sure before.
With that said, I thought him wanting to replace out was indicative of town. That seems like a dick move for scum to pull upon being caught and Paul comes across more as a laid back, chill dude so I have a hard time imagining him doing that as scum. But I can see town getting this frustrated.
@Skitter, can you link me to the posts that best illustrate your Paul scumread? I want to engage but there are so many of them I don't know where to begin. I will say that I don't get the impression that he's discrediting you. You said town-Paul is paranoid of you and sheeps you despite that but neither of those points apply here given you are conf-town and your biggest scumread is him.
So, he's probably town but I have a few reservations about that. Would like more engagement from Paul before I can get a better read.-
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@Skitter, I'll talk about your points first and then give my general impression of Paul's ISO:
1. I don't agree with the "buddy and discredit" point. I think it's easy for townies posts to be interpreted as "buddying" and in the last game we played, my posts towards Paul could certainly have come across that way. Him saying you are great town could just be his honest feelings about you. I also think if someone that I expected to read me correctly is wrong, I'd probably laugh about it so I don't think the "you are wrong already" is particularly damning. I don't know why he said "already" though. That was weird and I do want an explanation for that.
2. I didn't like the "I'd scumread you if you weren't conf-town" bit from Paul. But several people said something similar. Ciara in 326, DoctorPepper in 327 and then Paul in 335. I also remembered Paul very accurately saying in Newbie 1797 that your aggression made you town. You had a pretty aggressive opening here pushing on Paul so by his own logic, I'd expect him to think it's townie even not considering that your predecessor was conf-town. But I thought the piggybacking off of Ciara and Osuka to further call you scummy definitely came across as dismissive.
3. Paul saying your reads are bad I think is referring to the fact that you have suspicions of one of his townleans and Paul himself while townreading his biggest suspect (Aphix). I'll have to check the timeline on this though as I'm not sure at what point JaeReed started becoming a scumread for you.
4. I agree that his vote on MWAP was odd. Like I said, it's weird that he took it as a literal scumclaim. I also don't know how he got this superconfident scumread on MWAP in the first place in 251. MWAP only made around five posts by that time and I'd be pushing to get him replaced as opposed to lynched. I also didn't like 262 as a reaction to MWAP's scumclaim. If Paul legit thought that was scum giving up, he'd assume that the lynch was going to happen anyways and wouldn't be so frantic about it. I could see it from scum wanting to make sure a mislynch doesn't slip away although I'm not sure if Paul is that kind of scum player.
5. Regarding Aphix, I certainly don't agree with the push and I'm on the fence about whether it's genuine. I'll go into it more in my next post.
6. I agree with your point about tone and upon re-reading, it's probably the biggest thing that sticks out to me. Paul in this game seems hyper-aggressive, often using strong language to make pushes is overly certain about his reads. That feels radically different than his play in TB's game where he was often sheepy and less abrasive in his interactions with people. I noticed what he said about being less aggressive in stronger playerlists and I'm wondering how much of that is alignment-indicative.
So, there are a lot of things I find bothersome in his posting there are a couple of hints that he may have a stronger scumgame than towngame so I need to think this through and actually engage him which will hopefully happen sometime today. Can you go over your other reads as well and whether you agree/disagree with any of mine? I haven't talked about MadTatters and Osuka but I have a slight townlean on Tatters and I don't know where the Osuka townreads are coming from. I also don't think JaeReed/Paul make a lot of sense as partners given how obviously they were leading the game together early on D1 and townblocking with each other.-
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I'm here. Paul saying he prefers scum actually makes me suspect him more because the extra confidence and aggression makes sense for his preferred alignment. I'll get through all the latest posts in a bit.
@Skitter, why were you thinking Paul is Pepper's most likely partner? I was actually thinking over a Pepper/Paul scumteam possibility at work mostly based on Pepper stating an early scumread on Paul but deciding to give him a pass because everyone else read him as town. Felt to me like he just wanted to pass off the blame to rest of the town in case Paul flipped scum.-
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I'm not as confident about JaeReed as I was initially but I think I'm going to vote there as well. Still trying to decide whether Pepper would be a better lynch here. JaeReed's latest posts felt like he was actually trying to sort/understand your posts. Pepper's contribution this day phase amounted to planting his vote on Aphix and checking out. And the reasoning is pretty weak (Aphix said that Paul scumslipped). D1, his contribution amounted to policy-lynching MWAP. Thoughts?-
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Conflicted. They've both been working in tandem for most of the day phase which would be a bold move for scum. Paul went so far as to say that if Osuka is town here, they should hydra together. Osuka for his part didn't really seem to be sorting Paul and I thought him not really engaging with any of skitter's points was a bit weird. It's possible he was confident in that townread because he's been "working with" Paul throughout the whole game. I suppose it's possible but more likely Paul is town if Osuka is scum and heknewPaul was town.-
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I get weird vibes from Osuka's ISO because I think he's overreacting to everything. I'm not sure if this is a playstyle thing or if he's trying to fake confidence. 140 and 172 is what I'm talking about. I really dislike 183 as well. It seems like he's trying to make it seem like JaeReed is attaching to himself (Osuka) as opposed to genuinely thinking "Jae could be buddying but I don't think he is." The "if anything I should be wary" phrasing is something I don't like. I'm not sure which post you are talking about skitter where you say he got mad at MWAP. I didn't find any of his end of D1 posting to be a towntell.-
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Osuka/Pepper is probably my best guess. I don't see anything ruling them out as scum together. Putting a partner in a lynchpool is common enough that I wouldn't consider it clearing. Osuka was part of Pepper's initial suspect pile but a secondary suspect and then Pepper forgets about him and never brings it up again.
One other thing about Pepper I forgot to mention: he seemed to be discrediting Tatters' suspicion of him by saying that Tatters was townreading the active posters, then sort of gives her a tutorial on looking for motivations as opposed to activity. But nothing in Tatters' posts suggested that she was using activity as a basis for her reads and it seemed entirely co-incidental that her reads at that point were townreading the higher post-count players. 397 is what I'm talking about.
Hopefully Aphix shows up and we can pull off a Pepper lynch.-
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Can you go over this a bit more. I did get those vibes from the way he attacked Tatters and MWAP (i.e. hyperaggressive tone).In post 738, JaeReed wrote:One thing in his favour is that I think his tonal difference from SUPER AGGRESSION and beating ppl down to here is big enough that I was thinking he might be town here off that alone. It's a small point since I know that can change from game to game but it is one so I might as well air it now that I know I'm dead tonight.-
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VOTE: DoctorPepper
I skimmed over that game and I'm not sure what to make of it. He was definitely more aggressive there. I'm not really sure what's alignment-indicative for Osuka. He has that sort of playstyle that I naturally tend to scumread. I'd say we flip Pepper and then go from there tomorrow. That'll also give me a chance to re-read everything during the night.-
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Claim your JK target please.In post 765, DoctorPepper wrote:I'm really fucking hung over right now. So I don't I can make a coherent enough post for you guys. So lynch me if you must, on the condition that Jae goes tomorrow-
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Curious what time zone Paul is in and whether he's going to get home by the deadline. If not, I don't know why he didn't just vote DP before leaving. I'm heading off to work in ten minutes so hoping to see a hammer and scumflip when I get back.
@Skitter, just lay out any other thoughts you want me to consider tomorrow in case it's a no lynch as I'd expect you to be the nightkill. Also, I don't think DP not considering Paul as scum makes sense as he's just as likely if not more to have stopped a scum-Paul from making a nightkill as it is that he protected a town-Paul from a nightkill.-
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I was thinking about that last night. I think if you were scum, showing up and voting DP was the best move for you to make. Alternatively, you don't show up. We no lynch. Skitter is killed, DP is lynched the following day and then you kill JaeReed. You still two more mislynches to win which is the same number you'd need in the current gamestate. Except you'll look a lot worse. I could see a scenario where you try to lynch JaeReed over DP but DP would be in a bind: either he has to answer for why he didn't protect conf-town skitter or you have to leave skitter alive.
With that said, I'm not set on you being scum. Still have an open mind. So, help me solve the game and we'll go from there. I'm re-reading the entire game right now with knowledge of flips and I should be back here this evening.-
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Been really busy irl sorting some stuff out that I haven't been able to get involved in this game the past few days but that's mostly out of the way now.
Anyways, I really have no idea which of Paul/Osuka/random/aphix are scum and while aphix has been my strongest townread, I haven't really managed to rule anyone out. I'll go over my impressions of the game with flips in mind and if people could engage with my points or give different opinions, that'll help me move towards figuring out the game. I'm just going to lay out all my thoughts so this might be a bit meandering. I have a post nearly compiled with thoughts on D1 which I'll post in a couple of hours. Need to grab dinner right now.-
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All of these are my thoughts on day one. I'll go over the rest of the game in a separate post which I'm writing now and should be done later tonight. Feel free to comment on what I've posted so far though.
Aphix (Icibalus):
113 - This is a bad post from Icibalus. It feels like he's trying to excuse himself pre-emptively by saying he's a bad player.
147 - This post is even worse. Saying Madtatters is "clearly scum" for quoting a post is the worst attack I've seen so far in the game. I think anyone reasonable would just assume that Madtatters meant to say something and clicked submit before doing so. I don't see what motivation scum have to do what Icibalus thinks Madtatters did. I also dislike the "I require a good explanation before I unvote" line because it felt like he was already planning to unvote and just needed Madtatters to answer his questions before he does so.
150 - I don't like this post either. Icibalus just clarifies the difference between Madtatter's argument and Osuka's and keeps his vote on Madtatters. This doesn't square with his initial reason of Madtatters quoting a post that says that they are scum. It feels like he found an easy target to leave his vote on.
235 - This is a good question to Pepper. Want to see if there was any follow-up here. I also generally liked Aphix's catch up post (234) but I talked about that earlier.
239 - While I didn't feel that JaeReed and Tatters were aligned when reading the game the first time, I thought this rationale was pretty well-thought out on Aphix's part. That he held onto this reasoning and only gave it after Paul asked also felt town to me (like there was more thought behind the scenes than what he was letting on).
291 - While I don't think it's scummy to want to policy-lynch someone, I don't get why you are policy-lynching if you hate policy-lynching. Although I get why he'd think the lynch is inevitable if the only person arguing against it (JaeReed) is his biggest scumread so I can hardly expect him to "work with" JaeReed to get an alternative lynch. I think that's something Paul hasn't considered in his opening attack D2 which I'll get to in a bit.
NotTheRealPaul:
164, 168 - I like these posts for townreading Tatters at the exact same time I was coming around to leaning town on her.
186, 189 - I don't disagree with anything said here. Icibalus' postwasbad and the MWAP vote wasn't unreasonable. I think the comment about "mindmelding" is probably something that town says more often than scum. In this case, Paul townread Tatters before JaeReed did and then Paul agreed with JaeReed's MWAP push. So, I overall like these posts. I also liked the comment on Osuka's reversal on Tatters and had the same feeling.
209 - You townlean Pepper for his RVS vote on you?
227 - Your last mention of Pepper was a townlean on him. How come you are now okay with lynching him? That said, I think the willingness to lynch Pepper might point away from a Pepper/Paul scumteam?
237 - This would be a weird post to make to a partner I think.
244 - I think Paul would probably townread Aphix here regardless of alignment. Not sure what to make of him saying Pepper shouldn't be dissuaded of his scumread on Paul (it sort of piggybacks on Aphix's reasoning).
251 - Do you normally push lynches like this as town? You do seem really aggressive here in a way you didn't in the previous game we played together.
262 - You didn't answer my question. Why were you so confident it was a scumclaim when in our previous game, you didn't buy that I was scum even after I said I was scum?
263 - This could actually be Paul genuinely thinking that Aphix was MWAP's partner as if MWAP gave up, then his partner would be pissed off.
280, 281 - I like these two posts because they seem like he's actively scumhunting for MWAP's partners as well as getting frustrated with MWAP's inactivity. I just don't think it's likely that scum would question MWAP's motivation for joining the game.
Osuka:
155 - I don't like this response to MadTatters. Tatters basically said "I'd genuinely like to understand your reasoning for your vote" and Osuka's response amounted to "i don't have to offer my reasoning behind every vote or action." It could partly just be a theory disagreement but giving reasons and allowing your target to respond can help you get a better read. It's rather premature to have already decided who he wanted to lynch on page seven.
172 - I'm not sure what was scummy about the post of MWAP's that you quoted. Mind elaborating?
174 - What of MadTatters' 159 were you townreading? I don't think her tone comes off that much more different than what it was previously. I actually agree with Paul that the turnaround after both Paul and JaeReed townread MadTatters feel like Osuka realized that this lynch wasn't going through and changed course for MWAP instead.
177 - I like this back off though and subsequent pressure vote (again) in 181.
183 - The "if anything I'm the one who should be wary" pings me. If Osuka genuinely thought JaeReed was buddying him, he'd say so. If not, I expect he'd say that they were both town that were townblocking. What I didn't like about the phrasing here is that it seemed like he wanted Yakko to continue to have the impression that JaeReed could be buddying Osuka but not actually want to investigate the matter himself (Yakko already claimed BP so this isn't a question to help him read Yakko). I'm not sure what to make of the fact that JaeReed actually agreed with what Osuka said here.
191 - "He explained himself well after I asked if it was a threat?" Do you mean his 160? How does that alleviate your suspicion of him? If you were talking about 159, then same question.
225 - I liked the "too nice" characterization of JaeReed since I got some of those vibes myself and wondered if he was scum for it although it seems to have just been an IC thing.
229 - Conflicted on this one but want to make a note of it. How does most of his content strike you? Why no follow up D2 on this?
271 - I think the argument that "MWAP is scum" and "Aphix knows MWAP will flip town" are a bit contradictory. I'm not really sure whether Osuka thinks MWAP will flip town or scum here. On the one hand, he's pushing the lynch through with statements like "if you think it is not (alignment indicative), I have two (bridges to sell you)" while on the other, there's stuff like "he's either gamethrowing town or gamethrowing scum, and in either case i'm fine with getting him lynched" which feels like a policy-esque vote.
283 - The frustration feels townish here. I see what skitter is saying but I don't find it to be as conclusive as she does.
Random (MadTatters):
146 - I thought the "your anger is only proving to me more that you're scum" seemed really naive in a newb-town way and it's one of the posts I really thought was town from Tatters.
151 - A little bit conflicted on this one. I liked the re-iteration of why Osuka was scummy. It sounded like Tatters were clinging to a genuine belief. I didn't like the emphasis on telling Paul that her vote was fake. It sounded like they were trying to placate Paul. I don't understand the reason why Tatters was townreading Paul and Icibalus.
157 - Weird? No idea what this is.
159 - I think this post is more likely to come from town because Tatters is singling out one of the votes on her (Osuka) while townreading two others (Paul and Icibalus) specifically because he didn't have reasoning. That reads like she's scumhunting her wagon. The "go on, lynch me" argument also makes sense if she genuinely thought people are going to look at her scumread Osuka next after her townflip because of the way he pushed her.
214 - I feel like the assumption that everyone caught onto something with MWAP that she, Tatters didn't betrays a town mindset as well as the curiosity in asking people why they want MWAP lynched. It feels like she's trying to learn how to scumhunt as opposed to seeing how she could take advantage of a situation where a townie is under a lot of pressure.
292 - This hammer and reasoning feel like complete bullshit. She was scumreading Osuka before so the turnaround is weird. It's probably the only thing I found scummy in Tatter's D1 but I really hate it.
DoctorPepper's interactions with other slots:
109 - "FOS buddy, vote townie" was a tell I think but I'm not sure I believe that. Agreeing with JaeReed on Tatters seems like he's trying to set Tatters up for a mislynch.
136 - Conflicted on whether this push makes sense for a partner to do.
212 - The counter-offer to Yakko to move to Icibalus doesn't seem like something a partner would do. Disliking the idea of a townblock makes more sense if JaeReed's townreads are actually town so this gives townpoints to Osuka and Paul. I'm not sure what his hesitance to go after Paul says about Paul's alignment.-
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That makes sense I suppose. Can you explain why you are townreading me here? You haven't really engaged with anything I had to say whereas we talked quite a bit before you started trusting me in the Space game. It feels like you saw JaeReed and skitter hard-townreading me and townbinned me because you thought I wouldn't be a viable lynch in this game.In post 850, NotTheRealPaul wrote:@BV
Yours wasnt really a scumclaim. Like it kinda was but when I read it and u claimed it was supposed to go in PT it didnt realky make sense.It isnt something I can see u posting accidentally.
Like MWAP just came off as something newbscum would say or gamethrowing scum would say.-
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@Skitter, I got the chance to skim through the game where you and Paul were partners. How would you characterize his scumgame there? Did you think he was more aggressive in pushing mislynches, how did he interact with partners, etc. I skimmed quickly but firsthand information would be more useful here. Also, do you think the things I liked about Paul's play are things he's capable of doing as scum?-
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These are my thoughts on pages 13 (start of D2) to 20. I need to go to sleep so I'll just post what I have and do the rest tomorrow. @skitter, I laid out my reasons for townreading Paul here in-depth and once you are done reading, I'd be excited to hear your feedback on whether you think the conclusions I drew from them are accurate.
Aphix:
350 - I think the way he described his JaeReed scumread here feels very town. I doubt scum would go out of their way to push JaeReed when they had their hands full with Paul.
402 - This entire post feels very town to me. The desire to get reads out because he's worried about getting lynched in his sleep, the admission that he's not certain about Paul being scum and making sure to bring up that he's scumreading JaeReed who hasn't really attracted that much attention at all.
421 - I liked this response to Osuka's suspicion of him especially since I found Osuka's 418 to be mildly townie.
457 - I think this is town because it would be going a bit too far to insult site meta if he was correctly caught as scum.
NotTheRealPaul:
315 - I don't think this is a bad attack at all. I think Paul wasn't considering that in between those posts, MWAP became really destructive but I can still see why Aphix's initial townread on MWAP followed by a policy-lynch was scummy to Paul. I also think the aphix push in the face of resistance from skitter felt more like town believing what he's pushing than scum opportunism.
332 - If Paul is scum here nakedly quoting his partner, he's got balls. I think it's unusual for scum to be that blatant towards a partner.
338 - I liked that Paul went back to check how the lynch went down and think that the way he developed his attack here looked town. I do think he missed the fact that Aphix was hard-scumreading JaeReed to the point of looking for JaeReed's partners and in Aphix's mind, JaeReed's support doesn't really mean anything because he's not going to get a scum lynch by collaborating with JaeReed to lynch outside of MWAP. So, policy-lynching MWAP would have been the best course of action there.
348 - Reads like conf-biased townie getting more and more convinced Aphix is scum when Aphix votes him back.
351 - How did Aphix change from scum to wrong here? But I liked that Paul was agreeing with Aphix's JaeReed push while continuing to push him. Not a fan of the "I hate being paranoid so I'm rolling with town!Jae" but I think it matches how he treated skitter in our past game when I suspected her.
361 - Thoughts on Tatters mirror mine pretty closely. The insistence on getting Aphix to explain feels like he really cares about the answer which points to genuine scumhunting. Not sure what to make of Pepper consistently being on the periphery of his reads as a third scumread but I think it's reasonable to see Tatters as scummier than Pepper, and his attack on Aphix was well elaborated.
368 - I actually thought the "I wanna get mled rn just to show skitters cant meta me yet" would be a weird mindset to fake as scum but I can see it coming from frustrated town.
405 - Would change NotTheRealPaul's name to TheRealBalls if he's scum here - for constantly quoting his partner the way he is.
406 - I think the annoyance here is town because while scum can get frustrated at getting caught for the wrong reasons, I don't think Paul is arrogant enough as scum to believe that he shouldn't be scumread. Am I making sense? Let me know if you need this to be rephrased.
430 - More balls of steel if Paul is scum here. I think the more likely explanation here is that Pepper is trying to pocket Paul by consistently saying things he knows Paul will agree with.
470 - The "im feeling a bit under the weather rn. ya ik timing is shit.. if u think im scum tryna get out of skitters' trap ur a dick" feels town. I can't see Paul pre-emptively calling people dicks if they correctly scumread him even if for the wrong reasons.
Osuka:
328 - Can you elaborate on your read on Paul, your read on Aphix, and your thoughts on skitter's wall. It's all too vague for me to understand.
330 - Why was Pepper probably town here? None of these reads make sense to me. For instance the aphix read "I think you're town but I'm suspicious of you for no reason other than gut, unless you count the fact that icibalus was super weird - though i'm willing to let that go since you're townier than he was." Nothing here explains what you are townreading and what you find scummy.
370 - I don't agree with Osuka's take on Aphix here. I think the point that Aphix only pushed Paul after Skitter did was a good one. But I don't see what's so "gross" or "super-fabricated" about the first post he quoted (345), nor how 350 is necessarily scum-motivated. I get the vibe that Osuka was trying to align himself with Paul and against Aphix.
288 - Two problems here. Voting just to see "how full of shit" the conf-town is, is strange. Tatters gaining townpoints for the display of "coherence" in 380 blows my mind because it's fairly rare to see a postthatincoherent. She didn't even agree with your reasoning for pushing Aphix, she just omgus'd Aphix for entering the game by pushing her and said that you and Aphix were her scumreads but you dropped off (why?), then wrote a jumble of words about pairing her two biggest scumreads which I still don't understand. Perhaps you can break down her post and explain what she meant?
412 - I actually like the defense of Paul here and the Aphix vote because he doesn't want a wagon on his townread to pick up.
440 - Can you explain why "doing fuck all to thwart his wagon" is scummy? It's not beneficial for either alignment but if I stretch, I can maybe see town not trying to talk their way out of a lynch thinking it'll help remove a distraction and catch scum in future days. But scum have even more motivation to survive.
Random (MadTatters):
380 - This post is a bit frustrating to read because nothing is explained, just saying that reads became stronger and weaker. Then just votes the popular wagon Aphix. Combined with the MWAP hammer out of nowhere, I get the feeling that MadTatters is just opportunistically going along with popular consensus lynches.
425 - I liked the caution here and wanting to re-evaluate although I don't think it points to Tatters-town that strongly.
480 - Another frustrating post with the same stuff about how her biggest scumreads changed but no reasoning why.
496 - I actually like Tatters' reason for voting Aphix: because Icibalus kept his vote on her even after she explained herself. Whether it's reasonable to place that much importance on it so late into the game is another matter. I don't like how she's giving everyone the run-around when asked for reads though.
DoctorPepper's interactions with other slots:
372 - This vote on Aphix could go either way I think. He could have seen that town were jumping all over Aphix and joined the wagon or he thought that his buddy was under pressure and that he needed to push here.
393 - While it's certainly possible that he's defending a buddy in Paul here, I think it more likely points to Paul as town because the confidence with which he puts down Aphix's scumslip argument would be hard to fake if Paul was his buddy. Pepper would know that Aphix found a legit scumslip and pushing back so hard would be risky. But if he knew Aphix was wrong, he'd have a lot more confidence pushing Aphix for something that he knows is objectively wrong.
396, 397 - I'm torn between whether he's coaching his partner Tatters or whether he's discouraging a town-Tatters from scumreading him by misrepresenting her reads as based on activity. I think Tatters responding by saying "no they aren't" feels more likely town though because I expect she'd change her reads if her buddy was coaching her and suggesting that she should.
428, 429 - I think the confidence with which he's defending Paul and attacking Aphix makes me think they're both town and Pepper is piggybacking on a town-Paul's push on town-Aphix and using that to get a mislynch.
433 - Trying to decide if he's tying a townie to a partner (who he doesn't have to push if Aphix flips town) or is just trying to make his Aphix read seem more legitimate by presenting a possible partner.
498 - More townpoints for Paul here. I can't see Pepper's main point against Aphix being that he correctly caught a scum-Paul scumslipping.-
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So to summarize, I don't think Aphix or Paul are scum. I hated Icibalus' posts but Aphix really did redeem that slot and while I'm not without paranoia of Paul, I think his play makes far more sense as town and there are some interactive tells with Pepper where he doesn't fit as a partner.
I think scum are within Osuka and Randomidget (Tatters). I'll read the rest of the game tomorrow afternoon to see which I think it is.-
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Found a recent game of randomidget's where he townreads a dead player upon replacing in before he catches himself. So, that seems like the sort of thing he'd genuinely do and not alignment indicative.-
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You don't really have an opinion you want to interject with? This whole game, you've been letting me and skitter talk about you while directly engaging me only a limited amount. Do you have any scumreads at this point?In post 870, NotTheRealPaul wrote:Am I expected to respond to skitters' walls too? Bcuz like thats a lotta walls. Or are skitters and BV just bouncing stuff off each other?
@Skitter - I read your post last night and slept over it. Some of your points made me second-guess my read especially the links from his previous scumgame where he was blatantly buddying you. I'll look again more closely when I get back from work tonight. And I'd love to hydra with you sometime!-
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I was leaning towards Osuka as well. My post where I explain my thoughts on the remainder of the game is in progress but I hated 509. It didn't feel like he was actually scumhunting, more like just throwing down stuff that looked like justification for a read.-
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Well, you replaced into a thirty page game so I'd expect you wanted to read it? I do have a question though - how did you go from MadTatters is null to "Tatters was so scummy, why weren't they lynched yet" in a span of three minutes?
@Paul - good luck with school. Hope to see you around.
I'll post my catchup which is almost done and then I'll get to skitter's latest post. I do need to read the Paul scumgame more closely as well as a few of Osuka's games before I feel confident in my reads though.-
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My thoughts on the rest of the game picking up from my last post. Now I'll check out Paul's scumgame and a few of Osuka's games. By the way, Osuka recently completed another newb-scumgame so there's more to work with.
Aphix:
568 - His paranoia of a Paul/JaeReed scumteam distancing from each other while trying to get him lynched felt genuine and I could see why he'd think that.
NotTheRealPaul:
516 - This feels a lot like coaching.
554 - Agree with JaeReed here that it doesn't feel like a scum gambit. I think it's illogical obviously given skitter won't be alive to reset but I see this post coming more from an emotionally frustrated place than a logical one.
562 - I think not wanting to make mylo is something that makes sense as town in his position.
737 - Fairly small point but I liked that he was willing to vote Pepper since Aphix wasn't going to go through. That's a pretty noticeable contrast to how Osuka treated the DP lynch.
775, 778 - Don't like either of these posts. I think Paul was definitely townreading JaeReed for a good part of the game and never seemed to have townread DP so the "why do we believe Jae over DP" felt weird coming from him.
Osuka:
509 - How has Aphix done an "ass job defending himself?" As I listed out in my previous post, he has done a lot of genuine scumhunting and taken positions that don't make much sense for scum to take (like the JaeReed scumread for "whiteknighting"). Suggesting he's not scumhunting anymore or trying to lynch people is veering into blatantly false territory when he's been pushing Paul as well as questioning multiple people. This is a really bad post that feels like Osuka is stretching to justify a scumread on the mislynch of the day.
520 - I have no idea how Aphix last post changed his mind here when Aphix had been making similar posts all day. This feels a lot like Osuka's back-off of Tatters on D1 where he meets resistance and changes direction. Skitter throwing out JaeReed as a possible lynch seems to have been the trigger here and he says he's okay with it. But the last time he expressed any suspicion of JaeReed at all was in 414 where he was a fourth choice behind Aphix, DP, and Ciara. I think he was too quick to jump on the JaeReed wagon without trying to pivot to DP whom skitter had also expressed suspicion of.
544 - I like that he included DP in his willing to lynch list. But the list pretty much contains everyone except his townread Paul and his recent townread Aphix.
572 - How did Aphix jump right back into your lynchpool? I also find it odd in hindsight that Osuka suggests a Ciara lynch but not a Pepper lynch even though they were both listed as equally scummy in his readslist. I get the vibe that he's buddying Paul and is okay lynching pretty much anyone else and while he doesn't really townread Pepper, he also doesn't try to sway the lynch towards Pepper.
688, 689 - I don't understand the "there's one hour to the deadline and her laywer goes for the insanity defense, we're all fucked." It doesn't say anything about the likelihood of Tatters being scum (he actually says she's nulltown) but doesn't want to try to lynch her because she might wiggle her way out by acting like she's insane?
691 - JaeReed being a scumread for the Tatters push is somewhat plausible since I got weird vibes from it as well.
693 - In hindsight, I don't like this post. He lays out a bunch of reasons why Pepper is suspect, says he'd rather not lynch the slot which prevents momentum from turning Pepper's way but leaves an out to hammer if it's unavoidable. If a slot is low content and hard to read, that actually makes it agooddeadline lynch and removes a question mark slot.
694 - I remember not liking this read on me when I first read it. There's a bit too much emphasis on Ciara but I don't really understand what it was about Ciara that Osuka was scumreading. She seemed to be in the lynchpool through process of elimination, and then I came in and made towny posts and now I'm null?
730 - Another post I dislike where he advocates lynching me over DP. BV is acting pretty blatantly town but because I've had a scumpartner do that, I'm down to lynch him? That's really terrible reasoning. It felt like he was banking on a JaeReed mislynch while having DP as a peripheral suspect that he wasn't intending to bus. But when JaeReed claimed, he had to scramble to get another lynch so he tries to brush his DP suspicion aside because "hard read/low content" and lynch me despite being "blatantly town" because Ciara was in his POE pool. This is actually a really incriminating post because DP and Ciara were both in his POE pool before. I came in and according to him played in a towny way. So, that means he should be more willing to lynch DP but he instead tries to minimize my town play and continue to try to lynch me while pushing aside his DP read. Skitter is right in 731 that DP has been in Osuka's scumpool for ages but never really pushed him but that people aren't really pushing anyone so it's hard to tell. I'll add that when push came to shove and the JaeReed mislynch was no longer on the table, Osuka didn't fall back on his scumpool and lynch DP. Instead, he tried to justify not lynching DP with very bad reasoning (low content, hard to read).
747 - This does feel like he resigned himself to a Pepper lynch after three of us voted there. Not sure how alignment-indicative this is though.
748 - His tone changes a bit after voting where he questions the townread on DP whereas before he was arguing against it. I think the premise behind the question is flawed here. Obviously town-DP would be resistant to a Paul lynch (much like Osuka himself) if he was genuinely townreading Paul and didn't want to lynch him. This post reads like now he's committed to bussing DP, he changed course and started being in favor of DP lynch.
844 - I continue to dislike Osuka's read on me. "Obvtown but gets meanie points through POE" does not make any sense whatsoever. The entire point of using POE is because you have a couple of obvtown reads and you are trying to sort the rest. Paul getting meanie points for not interacting with DP also doesn't make sense since Osuka said himself that DP barely interacted with anyone else. What "POE" is he talking about here?
Random (MadTatters):
607 - Unless Tatters is deviously manipulative, this post looks town. I thought the way she was ruling out Aphix/Skitter while being oblivious to skitter being conf-town felt town. The second part also seemed like really naive town thinking they found something smart.
608 - I hated the hammer for different reasons. Really wonder what JaeReed was seeing here.
610 - This is just a bizarre thought process that I don't know what to make of it. I wonder why scum would post this though.
DoctorPepper's interactions with other slots:
614 - Scum points for Tatters for this. I don't see why Pepper would be defending such easy lynchbait here although there's an outside chance he's trying to get Tatters on his side or towncred when she flips.
649 - The Tatters read and MWAP read have a lot of parallels so this could just be trying to pocket a townie.
699 - Not sure what to make of Pepper calling out Osuka's catchup as lazy. I think in a scum-Osuka world, it probably means he's trying to distance especially since an Osuka lynch did not seem likely at that point but I really need to read some of Osuka's other games to check what his general playstyle is like.
Anyways, @skitter, I'm curious to hear your thoughts on Osuka in general. While you're placing a lot of importance on a single event (frustration at MWAP), I think it's a lot easier to fake isolated reactions than keep it up consistently over the whole game. He's my best guess for scum right now.-
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@Osuka, here are the biggest questions I have from your responses:
1. I don't understand your stance on pressuring lurkers. You pressured MWAP because he wasn't posting content in what you call a "bully wagon" (225) which I'm taking to mean that you are pressuring him into posting content. But you say you didn't pressure DP early D2 because "having a wagon on a lurker who I read nullscum and really isn't gonna give that much information." That feels contradictory. If you thought bullying MWAP into posting content would work, you can certainly pressure DP as well to see how he reacts to the wagon. What's the difference?
2. I wouldn't mind talking about 159 more. Can you elaborate on what sounded genuine?
3. Regarding Aphix, I didn't say that Aphix did nothing to thwart the wagon. You did. My question is that even if you genuinely believe that he did nothing to thwart the wagon, why would it be scummy? I thought Aphix spent a lot of time scumhunting and pushing people who it didn't make sense for scum to push in that position (like JaeReed who was townreading him).
4. Why was Ciara scummy? You've actually saidnothingabout Ciara other than agree with her that Icibalus' slot was scum in 225, and put her in a POE pool in 414. You also later suggested "compromise-lynching" Ciara which doesn't feel you had a particularly strong scumread. But after I replaced in, you place a lot of emphasis on the fact that Ciara's scummy posting cancels out my town posting which is weird.
5. Ciara and Pepper actually had a similar amount of content. Both players posted very little. I don't understand why Ciara was an okay lynch but Pepper wasn't just because he was low-content. I don't know what to make of you saying you genuinely didn't consider that a low content slot would be a good deadline lynch but I have a hard time buying it considering you are fine "compromise" lynching Ciara in 572. These reasons only seem to apply to DP. Ciara and DP were also on the same read level in your 414 so I don't get why you're okay lynching Ciara but were reluctant to lynch Pepper.-
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@Archwing - when you come back, can you explain what of 457 was awful and why Osuka having DP in his scumpool makes you think he's town? Did you feel he was against scumreading his partner in the game you've played with him? I'd also be interested in your take in what scum-Osuka plays like and why you think this is not it.
@Randomidget - how was MadTatters "really hypocritical and pushing people that weren't addressing them?" Why is it scummy? I know this is a weird question to ask about a slot you replaced but I'm interested in seeing whether you genuinely believed that or were just trying to get towncred off of "why would scum say the person they replaced is scummy" type thing. You also asked if someone could summarize a case on Osuka. I essentially did that. What's your response? When you finish reading, can you list out your reads and explain them?
@Skitter, looking forward to it. I'm around for another hour or two.-
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@Osuka, I have read the game very thoroughly and I can confidently say you've never stated a single reason why Ciara was scummy. You've interacted with Ciara twice (257, 328) and both those posts are completely mundane. In the first, you tell her that MWAP will never produce worthwhile content. In the second, you answer her question about your read on Paul. Then comes your 414 where she's in your POE pile. Then 554 and 572 where you'd be "willing to lynch Ciara"/"compromise on Ciara." I also have a hard time reading your 414 and believing that you didn't mean for DP and Ciara to be at a similar level of suspicion. If I'm somehow skimmed over a Ciara case, link me to it.
I don't think your stance on lurkers is consistent at all. You argued against a DP lynch on the grounds of him being a hard-to-read/low-content slot but he's not unique in that regard. Ciara and MWAP both fit that pattern but you were okay pressuring MWAP for content early on, and you were fine deadline-lynching Ciara. I've re-read my post and I can't see how I've misrepped anything here.