Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]
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see this is me, except only the first four wordsIn post 42, Shirou wrote:I can't read hydras if at least one of the heads doesn't sign-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Why do you say this in response to one serious vote?In post 192, Tejate Raichu wrote:Oh hell yeah, page 8 wagon on me? Let's do it.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Your reasoning fails to persuade me of this :pIn post 205, Shirou wrote:Therefore you may end up thinking "okay, but what is the difference between doing that and nothing?", and this is my reasoning:
Everything you're describing here can be achieved if people breadcrumb well. I already have, for one.-
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There's plenty of room for creativity in breadcrumbing.In post 222, Shirou wrote:I guess breadcrumbing is simply easier/safer than whatever I proposed...it's just not really "fun"/"novel" and those are the elements I'm focusing more than necessarily "optimal"-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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nQ townish imo.
The phrasing of this post is weird. What do you hope to get from Ceph by telling him that he is too overexplainy?In post 295, fua wrote:I don’t think I like this interaction. You feel too overexplainy.-
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In post 319, morph the cat wrote:
These stances seem really assured based on what is still pretty thin data on the ground, GL.In post 314, GuiltyLion wrote:implosion and nQ get major towncred for mindmelds
and I kinda townread Ydrasse so far too
Perhaps the problem is you gave them to the wrong people, rather than the government not minting enough of them.In post 321, morph the cat wrote:We're still stuck at 3 day-3 passes. :/
VOTE: fua-
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This is also kind of weird. I feel like scum if anything will try to haveIn post 404, fua wrote:
It’s because you have no interactions with each other and yet pray to the reach gods to try to fabricate a reason to scumread me within less than a page of one another. But that’s just why I think you could be paired even outside of you both individually being scum.In post 402, GuiltyLion wrote:
is this because of any specific interactions between us, or just because we are both voting youIn post 362, fua wrote:I can see implosion and GL as a scum pairing.differentreads from each other. I feel like if I were scum and saw a scumbuddy fabricate a scumread on player X the last thing I would do is then go "hm, i should also fabricate a scumread on player X".
And there's plenty of players that I at least have not interacted with at all.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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that's... not even close to what i'm saying? my point is you seem especially acerbic toward people that have expressed suspicion of you. I literally asked you one question and then emptyvoted you and you're calling me your tied biggest scumread and speculating about who I'm scum with. It seems like a bit of an overreaction.In post 430, fua wrote:
I mean, several other people in this game have said that it’s understandable if people scumread them for (X) reason. So if your point is that town always thinks that reasoning against them is bad then that’s clearly not true and also a weak argument to begin with.In post 428, implosion wrote:fua have you ever seen someone vote or fos you and go “gosh, I’m town but their reasoning here sure is solid”?-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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And to answer the original thing: that's not what I was calling questionable, like I said, it's the phrasing that I found weird. The phrasing where you're talkingIn post 326, fua wrote:
I'm saying my thoughts and reads out loud. Why is that questionable?In post 298, implosion wrote:nQ townish imo.
The phrasing of this post is weird. What do you hope to get from Ceph by telling him that he is too overexplainy?In post 295, fua wrote:I don’t think I like this interaction. You feel too overexplainy.tocephrir about how he's scummy.-
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I just flat disagree that opportunism is scummy on d1. My vote absolutely was like 80% opportunism. Wagons are Good For The Town on d1, actually.In post 443, fua wrote:I dislike opportunism more than I dislike people scumreading me. It’s also really the most notable thing that’s happened in this game considering how people can’t stop talking about me, so I figure it should factor into my reads a little.-
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It's specifically because you're addressing it to him, and not as a question. It's like if I said "fua, you're really scummy this game." More typical phrasings would be "fua seems really scummy this game" or "fua, why did you say this thing that is scummy?" Very minor thing, hence it being a one-off question with, again, a vote that was mostly opportunism.In post 448, fua wrote:Why is that weird? I’m already in a conversation with him.-
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This emotion doesn't really jive. 3 day-3 passes... literally less than 12 hours after the game began. How does that merit a :/?In post 321, morph the cat wrote:We're still stuck at 3 day-3 passes. :/-
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This is not a direct comparison; I'm perfectly happy with the number of reads I have at this point. I'm specifically unhappy with not being able to trust myself on Shirou.In post 475, morph the cat wrote:
And you're questioning us wanting more than 3 townreads atp?In post 466, implosion wrote:I very desperately want to call Shirou super town but I feel like he's the kind of slot that I incorrectly townread sometimes.
I like tejate/ceph/nQ/ydrasse for town so far.
There's very little intersection in our reads atm. Hmm.
Regarding little intersection I assume part of that is because you're locktowning Amazons (and I'd imagine you probably are okay with other people not individually having the capacity to locktown them at this point) and at that point the expected amount of overlap between 2 people and 4 people is pretty low.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Missed this, I think it's entirely personality and not really strongly readable. If it does swing one way it's probably a little townish at this point but I don't think it's near enough to be confident.In post 439, GuiltyLion wrote:
do you think the "acerbic"ity is scummy? I'm townreading it, I don't know if scum!fua would be this aggressive if they knew they were full of shit, I am getting a vibe that they're just a defensive personIn post 436, implosion wrote:
that's... not even close to what i'm saying? my point is you seem especially acerbic toward people that have expressed suspicion of you. I literally asked you one question and then emptyvoted you and you're calling me your tied biggest scumread and speculating about who I'm scum with. It seems like a bit of an overreaction.In post 430, fua wrote:
I mean, several other people in this game have said that it’s understandable if people scumread them for (X) reason. So if your point is that town always thinks that reasoning against them is bad then that’s clearly not true and also a weak argument to begin with.In post 428, implosion wrote:fua have you ever seen someone vote or fos you and go “gosh, I’m town but their reasoning here sure is solid”?-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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I fully forgot about dedede. I also fully forgot that I'd even played with Ceph before. There is one thing that I had remembered about morph and I see looking at dedede that it was in that game, which is that I distinctly remembered me having played a scum game where I made some post, and morph absolutely shredded me over that single post and I remember feeling like, emotionally devastated over it lol. Part of why I voted morph is that they felt kind of on the sidelines of this game so far which to be fair might be totally normal for them but it was in somewhat contrast to that memory.-
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Part of it is he feels very similar to the game we just played where we were both town. The way he's engaging with the game/with people, I think 270 as a catch up followed by engaging with people and asking for a vote count and then voting before getting one is somewhat town.In post 537, Amazonian Legends wrote:
Can you expand on your nq townread?In post 466, implosion wrote:I very desperately want to call Shirou super town but I feel like he's the kind of slot that I incorrectly townread sometimes.
I like tejate/ceph/nQ/ydrasse for town so far.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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I also just want to say that I currently kind of feel like my d1 reads are like, absolutely doomed to be complete trash based on recent games so ultimately while I do currently think these things and can give reasons why I think them I really don't think it's especially likely I'm right :X
tbh I haven't really been paying the closest of attention to the actual threads of this game compared to the aesthetics of it. But uh, idk. He's maybe a little focused on some specific people but that's normal on d1.In post 544, Ydrasse wrote:what do you think about the things he's actually saying beyond him just saying him? :<-
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547 is a townish question from Ydrasse, since it's indicating a consistent train of thought (of course these things can be faked but they take effort to fake).
552 also makes me feel better about calling Tejate town - this seems like a really likely way for relatively new town to feel about Shirou's play and it's something I think relatively new scum wouldn't think to say. I don't like 557 though, very sideline-y in a bad way.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Actually morph's reads list maybe goes so far as to sketch me out a bit? Idk it feels like... a really convenient list for scum to have. Ydrasse/nsg/redtea. Idk. The reason for scumreading nsg is so weird. Lurkiness sure, but the throwing-in-front-of-fua thing... I don't see how one finds scum-motivation in that move from nsg that she wouldn't have as town. nsg was mislimmed in my most recent game with here and I think she's the kind of player who would have a stereotypical reputation of being hard to mislim and iirc part of it was an inconsistent schedule of thread interaction though I could be misremembering, but either way I'm not really reading into her alignment from that right now. Especially when it's still <36 hours into the game, and it's been entirely during the weekend.
Both the nsg and Ydrasse reads relying on thread-avoidance is also a little wack to me because like, I personally have had a decent amount of trouble finding stuff to interact with for a good amount of this game. I think it's partially the nature of the game. Especially when like, morph themselves up until now has hidden their reads (which they normally do but it doesn't exactly facilitate thread interaction).
Like, two people they're accusing of thread avoidance and redtea who... is not exactly prolific, is all just underwhelming. And like I said I don't like the extra reason on nsg. Can't speak to the Ydrasse meta.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Crumbing results is a bad idea unless the crumb is ridiculously obvious, because cops flip without their night so we'd have no way of knowing if a dead cop has a result.In post 631, Shirou wrote:
?In post 626, implosion wrote:innos when relevant
I think that cops should always claim results here, even if it's only an inno?
Everyone is 1-shot so we aren't losing anything other than "hiding them from scum kills", but like, I don't want to write a wallpost here but basically it's not really that much of an issue even if they kill the inno given it would likely be someone that is a former suspect?
Forcing an inno to get nightkilled sounds way better to me than risking someone been cleared before but no one knowing it because the cop died at a night later before saying it.
I guess we can "crumb results" but...I don't know. I think it's obvious by now but I'm not a fan of crumbing, to the point I don't bother looking for crumbs even when I'm scum.
I generally would have no issue with a cop claiming an inno in almost any situation. But if you're a cop and you have an inno, and that inno is under no pressure, and you're under little or no pressure, and you don't think you're likely to be NK'd, then it's not unreasonable to hold onto the info. Also not unreasonable to give it.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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And yeah this is something that looks appealing but scum know the distribution of roles, and so there's not a whole lot that can be done to gain advantage there.In post 629, Tejate Raichu wrote:I suppose that's probably true, I was just thinking about how roles are most likely to be distributed/how scum are most likely going to claim in this setup. Perhaps that's a waste of time, though.-
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Like yeah, they're not. Neither is the one point on the other side. Scum will have to make a choice and be accountable for it at some point. That is... how the game of mafia works.In post 662, numberQ wrote:eh yeah on reflection I don't think the two points in the "let them wait" list are THAT important. I'm for the plan I think.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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There are tradeoffs to all of these situations.In post 669, Shirou wrote:
Implosion do you consider yourself a mech person?In post 665, implosion wrote:The advantage from forcing scum to claim cop immediately isn't as high as I think you're making it out to be. They'll just... do it. I don't really object to it as a plan but it's not exactly game-breaking or close to it.
What do you mean scum risking their neck for their partners or giving us a free extra inno isn't important?
hello...?
Cops who claim with a useful inno will, inevitably, get towncred. Scum can claim cop with a useful inno for that reason; hell, they might want to even without any plan of any sort that we're implementing. They can also claim a result on someone who died that day, still. A cop claiming a long-dead inno is going to be viewed as scummy, and so scum would want to avoid that anyway.
I feel like the way you're viewing this is very extreme where we're "forcing" scum to do something they probably want to do some of anyway. And again I don't really object to it as a plan! I just don't think it really nets much if any real advantage.-
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Ostensibly yeah. I think the pros and cons are both very small.In post 674, numberQ wrote:So are you saying you don't think either plan gives us better chances?-
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Like 4 people have called you town already <,<In post 677, fua wrote:Low hanging fruit. I'm an easy target for a mislim.-
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I'm quite confident that if I had drawn scum here, 2017 meta would be not among the best indicators of how I'd play.In post 724, morph the cat wrote:Implosion's interactions with us are giving me dedede vibes, but I haven't (yet) gone back to look at his iso in that game. Insomnia struck so it might be tomorrow before I do that review.
Hello; it is Me, Math, here to say This Wrong. There are two ways to explain why it's wrong: one, each town player's night is independently chosen, so me being, say, night 4 doesn't make the existence of another night 4 player be any more or less likely. The more poignant way to explain it is that if you know that as soon as someone claims the same role and night as you, it increases the probability that someone has the exact same role as you above the 60% baseline because, well, they might be telling the truth. The 60% probability that someone shares a role with you is the probability before any claims happen - if nobody else claimed the same role as you, then that probability would drop to 0%. So it stands to reason that if someone *does* claim the same role as you, it'll increase *above* 60%. And because the nights are independently chosen that increase will be by exactly the right amount to cancel out this idea of thinking about who does or doesn't have the same night.In post 713, imaginality wrote:
Assuming a 5-5 split, we have on average 97% chance of at least one pair of Town cops (i.e. cops who have the same action on the same night), and 78% chance of two pairs (or one triplet). Even if it's a 4-6 split, the 4 town players have 81% chance of at least one pair.
The same analysis applies to docs, of course.
So objectively, for the town as a whole, we can't really tell a lot from the existence of any particular pair.
However, subjectively it's a little different. Subjectively, there's 1-80%^4 = 60% chance of you being paired with a town player if you're part of five town players with that role (and 50% if there are four of you, 70% if there are six of you). So someone claiming the same role and night as you gives you at least a slight reason to suspect them over baseline suspicion (3/12 = 25%).
Spoiler: Much, much more detailed calculations that I'm not 100% sure are all correct but I dare you to find an issue-
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Also.
Can we please not? This is like, the equivalent of rolefishing. And I think everyone or at least a lot of the people calling fua town are not calling fua town for the roleclaim (I'm not specifically, though I do think the roleclaim is +town).In post 713, imaginality wrote:I think if anything fua's claim today is slightly +scum rather than +town as fua hinted it's a late-day action so it seems like it could be designed to encourage us to keep fua around, while also making docs likely to target fua which is fua is scum gives scum freer rein to kill whoever they like. Definitely feeling a bit wary about that.-
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- Joined: September 9, 2010
- Pronoun: he/him
- Location: zoraster's wine cellar