NY 189 - Flower Viewing Festival [~fin~]

[AxleGreaser]

FFS, it's like you're not even trying to understsnd what I say here

Please read this carefully.
If I tried to understand what a towny you said then I will put my towny meaning into your words.

My question that I am asking myself is are you town or scum.

If you are town then there is towny meaning in your words and you know what it is. So yes I challenge, just how well you know just what it is you are saying.
In my observation what you are saying is sliding around.

In 2868 you were impressed by the towniness of

No, I gave the way he went after firebringer hard imediatly after lynching tn.

(not sure if you were implying he lynched tn or you mean just after it happened.)(in fact he was not around and so didn't get a chance to vote tn and we will never know if he would have or not, or if he ould he have done so scummily.)

Then your position was

Well, I've reread the thing you've asked me to and I agree frogger acted quite weird about firebringer.

and you said
I remember him pushing tn a lot. But the thing is, frogger's play today has looked quite town to me, his changing his mind a lot seems really town imo.

I remember him pushing tn a lot. But the thing is, frogger's play today has looked quite town to me, his changing his mind a lot seems really town imo.

and now its that well he doesnt give reasoning for anything also when he voted scum at the time when they were in no real danger of the lynch going through, You(bear) considers that "pushing a lot"

As for your read based on todays play.

Remember how I warned you earlier about what you do first counts more. It is highly likely scum are in an every man for himself mode.
You even said that is what you think is happening.

I feel at this point, every scum is for himself. Bus hard would be the name of the game.

If Frogger is indeed now playing every man for himself, and before he was holding back and not really trying to catch scum....
What would that look like?

Wouldn't you now see the scum hunting skill that Fro99er was in fact not using earlier? How is that not what you are seeing now.

Personally i am not actually impressed by what my former scum suspects do anymore. As if your claim about what they will be doing(every man for self), is correct, then they will be hunting scum. And they ought be pretty good at it as they know who the scum are. So superficially they may look quite towny. What they do want, is to look good enough that having lynched some of their team mates they can then eek out a win on the resulting town cred they can get from their TMI based reads.

[AxleGreaser]

Again, where did I say frogger not giving reasons means I think he's town? I said that him not giving reasons for tn is softned by the fact he didn't give reasons for anybody?

Yes it softens it but it does not make it an actual push. or an attempt(or desire) to get Tn lynched that had any real risk of it happening.

As such it is not bus. It does not indicate that it was risk scum should not have taken.
It has no features that make it unlikely scum would do that.

AND

your observation that eh doesn't have reasons for things is something that ought raise suspicions in you
instead it is providing an excuse to read a soft possible distancing push by fro99er on tn as a bus.

[AxleGreaser]

and its while between drinks

but that sentence feels legit.

But honestly, I assumed this was his normal playstyle. I'll have a look at those other games(yes, I'm postponing yet again)

[AxleGreaser]

EBWOP.

and its been a while between drinks

but that sentence feels legit.

But honestly, I assumed this was his normal playstyle. I'll have a look at those other games(yes, I'm postponing yet again)

[AxleGreaser]

Dont read that last post wrong, this is still true
I think your filter(+ parts of pisskops) is scummy enough that I could hammer it to the wall with a boot nail.

[AxleGreaser]

which Axle is conveniently leaving out.

Which axle hasnt read :O
but I suppose will tomorrow,.

[AxleGreaser]

I've already quoted that aero quote 3 times now. For as thorough as you seem to be, how could you not have read that?

I dont read the meta you tell me to that would be silly.
I open your view topics and pick stuff to read from there.
Also having played with you I read less background on you than most people.

[AxleGreaser]

I've already quoted that aero quote 3 times now. For as thorough as you seem to be, how could you not have read that?

Oh I know! Confirmation bias.

it was also game you didn't want talk about. an i had enough trouble getting answers due to you being either too drunk to remember (2383 2380) or it being too windy.(2578 2579)

but Ok I looked.
But i dont scum read for your vote for jumping around

Ok, this jumping around Fro99er is doing is pretty indicative of how i've seen him as town.

I scum read for the reasons i have stated. I cant follow your towny thought process. Things you are calling pushes, that bear is calling busses, are at comparatively weak distancing or just tentative RVS style probes.

tentative probing pushes from refraction

Spoiler: example votes and reasoning from refraction

This vote http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 3#p6949963 is clear. but just weak push, if hed been scum that guy could have been his buddy.
This vote http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p6950450 is just pressure to play.
This is another not much push http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p6951247
so yes hes does those and doing them is fine, but hey are not strong pushes that are trying to get the guy lynched.

This is fro99er making an actual push. If Fr099er was scum, hed be unlikely to be scum with Plotinus
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p6955816

using that as my metric for what is and is not serious push This was Fro99ers first serious vote with push in this game 329
(note even then if he was good enough even that could be distancing as its not the kind of push that gets sheeped.)
It could be the kind of push you make to park your vote somewhere. I am not sure why he did it but i cant tell where it came from.

If he was harboring deep seated parnoia from our last game, then it could just be fear he carried into the game, but he had already indicated he did not

You don't read axle based off his opening post. You read axle based off his reactions to everyone else. He's got a pretty clear scumhunting/non-scumhunting meta, IMO.

Fro99ers play has these unexplained corners in his reasoning.

So no when I read refraction and compare it to this game I dont see the same towny player.

[AxleGreaser]

and as you have still never explained

Like, Axle expects me to remember every post I made for every reason n while I was hammered, and then every post I made for every reason while my brother was in the hospital and it was a holiday weekend here in the States.

If he realizes, I hardly posted on site that whole weekend. I was away from the game. I didn't give two shits about mafia with more important things.

I honestly don't even know what reasons I posted and why. I just don't care anymore.

Vanilla town

Gonna lurk now.

NO you claimed JUST very recently

There's zero chance I bussed tn).

either that was made up crap, or he really believes "There's zero chance I bussed tn"

now suddenly there is no explanation why that is a zero chance play?

BS.
Scummy BS.

@Frogger explain how you reached the conclusion "There is zero chance you bussed TN"
and how everyone else is meant to know that

When you claim you own memory of events is so poor you cant even now explain what you did and why?

[AxleGreaser]

He's not so good at this

Way to discredit the person rather than refute their points or just give a towny response.

I only have one vote, if you are in your own opinion highly likely getting lynched as you are AtEing like a trojan
Then its your play that then attracted the rest of the votes.
Try not getting a scum PM next time and see if that helps.

Spoiler: response i prepared and posted earlier

Nice AtE

It's going to be so great laughing at you post game for your idiotic tunnel of me.

There are reasons I scum read you
and
but its that i cant PoE you because you started being deliberately non transparent.
Thus i can get the data to overule my scum read.

because all you hear is wind. 2577 (and the other times you dodged, instead of answering)

While you are busy riding this AtE horse
while claiming (self meta) it is you town play.
yet also claiming i am bad.

[spoiler2=AtE]

If this is town:"good" at mafia I am glad i am bad and plan to stay that way.

VOTE: Fire

I'm so ready for this game to be over.

FlashLynch me tomorrow

FlashLynch Shazam the day after

Why done we just lynch me now?

Any cop out there should investigate me.

I assume Ricastle is the NK since scum won't kill me and they won't kill Hana, bearbert, or Shazam (who is prob scum), to ensure my lynch

So you're omgus'img. Cool.
You're town, just crappy town like me

cause when you were scum in that other game you were competent.

You see axle...this is why I'm not scum here. I've been an incompetent boob all game

VOTE: Fro99er

Total policy and you should all sheep me

[/spoiler2]

[AxleGreaser]

@Frog You said this

You read axle based off his reactions to everyone else. He's got a pretty clear scumhunting/non-scumhunting meta, IMO.

and reaffirmed it here

I didn't want people to scumread Axle fore #8 (meta) and now why I am scumreading him (actual play).

Please explain how 329 is from you scum reading my actual play.

While you are there, on D1 you also said

(by the way, scum run up their scum buddies not expecting it to run to completion early on D1 for town cred. Scum typically don't run up one town just to lynch another town).

So explain again how the previous minor pushes you made on tn (AND aero btw) mean you cant be scum with tn.
Before settling on me with lame duck case. 329

[AxleGreaser]

Hell actually explain that to me and I will be the L-1 beneath Ricastles wings.

[AxleGreaser]

but explain it Ricastle first while I take wander.
AKA to be fair.
If you are doing that, I will even AFK(ignore you your filter and what you) for lets say 12 hrs.

[AxleGreaser]

(yes, I'm postponing yet again)

How long for?

[AxleGreaser]

oops. EBWOP. sry.

I meant (see next post where I am offering to give him room to explain it to you, without me kibitzing )
@Frogger

Hell actually explain that to me and I will be the L-1 beneath Ricastles wings.

[AxleGreaser]

and another EBWOP

but explain it

TO

Ricastle first while I take wander.
AKA to be fair.
If you are doing that, I will even AFK(ignore you your filter and what you) for lets say 12 hrs.

[AxleGreaser]

perhaps I ought just AFK. {blush}

Update: I Still scum read Fro99er > Shizam > Davsto > Bearbert in that order.
Since my last reads thing they got closer. The others caught up to Fro99er.
So yeah, If Fro99er pulls a rabbit out of his hat, I am willing to L-1 bear.
(

I might even accept a brown rabbit but not a '

pigeon

', as they poop.

)

[AxleGreaser]

(yes, I'm postponing yet again)

How long for?

I've read the iso you've linked. Nothing screams scum in this game

Yeah you claim his recent play seems towny, and that towny play starts right about from the time you also think scum will have started playing every man for himself.
I see a problem with that read, and you have not addressed it.

What that game does demonstrate, is that your earlier evaluation of the tn push as being serious push is not valid.
In that game you can see what Fro99er pushing someone seriously looks like.
In 3132 I link to number of examples of Fro99er pushes in the spoiler.
Some are not serious one is. Fro99ers early pushes in this game were all in the not serious category.
The first plausibly serious push he made was on me.

There are no serious pushes by fro99er against any of tn or Aero.

So as I understand it the only thing left from your town read on him is:

Yeah you claim his recent play seems towny, and that towny play starts right about from the time you also think scum will have started playing every man for himself.
I see a problem with that read, and you have not addressed it.

---------------------------------------------

Now its a good thing we had this conversation instead of delaying it more. As this conversation is about your read and whether or not you have sound towny basis for it.
It wont be relevant what Fro99er flips, or if Fro99er can explain he we ought know he is town. The question do you know how and why you read him as town.
Ricastle has just asked Fro99er to explain similar thing. So you explaining how you know it before he does would be good if you had done it well.

Now we get to see if Fro99er can answer Ricastles question.

TBMrecollection

you have not specified just what in the recent times you read as being so towny.

[AxleGreaser]

its pretty clear at this point one of Bear or Shaz is scum.

Why only one?
What would be their choice if they were both scum?

[AxleGreaser]

He never explained it in plain English until like the eighth time I asked

bullshit

[AxleGreaser]

See Davsto where was all this suspicion on Shazam before he became the popular target today/yesterday?

This is becoming a theme with you.

Not only that but where did the capability to do what he just did hide all those previous days?

[AxleGreaser]

Indeed.
Ugh, i need to reread all i've missed but everytime i try i get lazy :<

and when iw as thinking about stuff like that overnight, that is the sort of thing
that made me want to agree with one thing Fro99er said was right.

Town don't deserve to win this.

[AxleGreaser]

shazam, who were the scum on my wagon?

Hard to say. Ricastle, pisskop, Salamence20, Sakura Hana, and Shiro are the ones I see as more likely than the others. You can probably throw out Ricastle for being the first on there (usually scum join an unopposed wagon later). And I'd throw out Salamence because I find him unreadable at this stage. So pisskop, Sakura Hana, Shiro? I'd guess at least one of them is scum. Maybe I should check out their iso's.

4 out of these 5 have literally flipped Town. I find this unnerving.

That is one hell of a misrep.
The (The Wagon) was chosen by a flipped towny. IaI
The 5 will have been chosen by eliminating the towniest or position or something like that.

Of those Shazam picked 3.
I have explained before why the assumption there must be scum on that wagon is faulty. That assumption was made by IaI.

[AxleGreaser]

Also @Thread

Ok are we done lynching anyone other than the people I want lynched most?

[AxleGreaser]

Indeed.
Ugh, i need to reread all i've missed but everytime i try i get lazy :<

and when iw as thinking about stuff like that overnight, that is the sort of thing
that made me want to agree with one thing Fro99er said was right.

Town don't deserve to win this.

but full and frank admission I am not sure I care about the outcome as much as i feel I should

[AxleGreaser]

Everyone else seems town to me.

Id like to know how you get Fro99er town so hard.

[AxleGreaser]

Ever since Fro99er's Day 1 post vomit I have been fairly certain he was town.

Thats fine now I know when I want to know why and how.

[AxleGreaser]

EBWOP. punctuation and stuff.

Ever since Fro99er's Day 1 post vomit I have been fairly certain he was town.

Thats fine now I know when. What really I wanted to know why and how.

AKA be specific.

Remember you are town and you want to convince me i am wrong.

Also you have just stated you suspect me. So this is also your chance sort me out by seeing how genuine my scum read on Fro99er is.
Also if your town and i am town(and I am) then you really want me to get my head out of my arse and see Fro99er is town too.
...

[AxleGreaser]

Also @Thread

Ok are we done lynching anyone other than the people I want lynched most?

I don't want to lynch those people. I think Davsto and Fro99er are town, though Davsto less so than Fro99er at this point, because of his really bad case on me. I'm trying to decide between Echo, ika, and you.

So you can be specific as well.

What changed.

Just make sure to lynch Fro99er tomorrow.

You're right, Sakura's not scum with this scumbag.

[AxleGreaser]

Okay.

I kinda want to vote all three of Fro99er, Bearbert and Shazam, but sadly that isn't an option.

Shazam... meh, unsure as of yet, actually.
Fro99er has his self-voting antics as well as various flailings.
But Bearbert is the successor to pisskop, whose play I disliked for pretty obvious reasons, and Bearbert's play has been very questionable sooooo

You can explain what changed as well.

Also, I'm pretty sure Fro99er is town, so I feel my worry yesterday that Me v Fro99er v Bearbert was TvTvT and that scum was just letting it sail past seems about right.

[AxleGreaser]

I've already explained this. The flip association for me was Bearbert scum => Fro99er scum, Bearbert town => Fro99er town. I forgot this reasoning embarrassingly enough, partially from distraction, partially from having a hard time thinking of Bearbert as town, but anyway, it's been explained. The interactions there don't make sense for Fro99er scum, Bearbert town.

ealier 431 492 1970 2210 2313 2379 2490 2761 2799

ALL of those contain reason that you scum read Frogger that had nothing to do with any association with Piss/bear.

What happened to those reasons?

[AxleGreaser]

The flip association is more important to me than those things. It's more concrete,

The flip association is ALSO just your judgement of what scum would and would not do.

So go again and explain why Fro99er cant be scum because bear is town.

[AxleGreaser]

For some reason, all it took was a couple people saying "if Bearbert flips town, Shazam is scum" for people to turn against me without a thought, despite the fact that I pushed two scum wagons.

This appears to be little revisionist, maybe it only happened in your head?
About tn, In the thread I find

<

previous good point by someone else elided

>
This is actually a good point.

VOTE: tn5421

This post really stuck out to me, so I edited it to leave the parts I consider relevant. Look at how bad his case on tn is. "I don't like this post" is the best he can do here.

So yeah you are on the tn wagon, but it does not look a lot like rowing the boat that way.

About Fire.
On Fire you get closer with 2101 2210 2490 2599 but as you kept not actually mentioning him as the first person in your list he didn't actually look like even a high priority. So I don't really quite see pushed there either.

[AxleGreaser]

more VCA later after I walk the dog.

I am dissapoint
where is this.

[AxleGreaser]

he main thing was when Fro99er was scumreading me and then did an extremely sudden 180 when he saw a single post. If he was scum trying to push for my lynch, he could easily have just said that it looks like bussing, but instead it changed his read in a way that I find fairly natural for town.

....
...
..
.

Which post.

[AxleGreaser]

Those posts (2973 2974) the ones you are town reading him for
they happened before you scum read him in the post I quoted.

I kinda want to vote all three of Fro99er, Bearbert and Shazam, but sadly that isn't an option.

Shazam... meh, unsure as of yet, actually.
Fro99er has his self-voting antics as well as various flailings.

So let me get this straight yesterday

after

you had had the interactions with Fro99er, that you now read as

I'm pretty sure Fro99er is town,

you say

I kinda want to vote all three of Fro99er, Bearbert and Shazam, but sadly that isn't an option.

do you have any idea why I might be tad dubious about the genuineness of your position?

[AxleGreaser]

I dont actually care, i have tried closing my eyes and it didnt go away.

VOTE: Davsto

ninja'd and I still dont care

[AxleGreaser]

Also town...
please
pretty please

do not bet we are not at MYLO.

[AxleGreaser]

Nothing happened to them. The flip association is more important to me than those things. It's more concrete, because it's based on a series of interactions and actual information of Bearbert's alignment.

That is really really really weird. You also know your alignment (and claim it is town) yet

If he flips town, it makes you town because Bearbert was reluctant to vote you even to save himself. It would mean flipped town genuinely believed you were town.

So that one genuine towny other than you legit believes Frog was town, that over rules your own genuine former scum read.

I am left only able to conclude,
(you are unsure about your own alignment???!!!)
or
You are confident that BearBert is better town player than you so you ought weigh his opinion higher than your own. (as it over ruled your own opinion)

Please tell me I missed where your actual associative tell was explained, because I cant find it, and this one is nuts.

Also, for extra merit, other flipped townies had reads... do you believe all of them too?

[AxleGreaser]

@Shazam

Either

You appear to misunderstand
while I do disagree with the reasoning of read that flipped town bear means town Fro99er.

The more immediate problem is it made no sense coming from a towny who knows they will flip town and used to have genuine scum read on Fro99er.

However I am still voting Davsto
and i am not a double voter.

or

LOL

[AxleGreaser]

@

that should make you think I'm town,

thanks all the same but I dont usually take advice on how to play or read scum from people I am scum reading.

and

so questioning me incessantly about it isn't going to get you anywhere.

yeah a point blank refusal to talk about it works for me.

The intriguing thing is, despite this,

. Admittedly, it could be Axle,

you don't have anywhere to go with this, or anything you need to work out.

@thread
much l8r

[AxleGreaser]

your VCA?

[AxleGreaser]

Assumption: Scum would try not to vote each other early game.

ur a funny guy.

and I havent even read to the conclusion of the post.

[AxleGreaser]

I wrote a bunch of stuff ,then deleted it. TLDR: Your VCA is just a 3 shell game.
You make capricious decision at the top and tunnel it to pretty much the only math conclusion you can get.
Well actually you seem talented, I suspect you might be able to get other conclusions.

However I am currently inclined to agree. You are a mumble uncc claimed mason, and you are more undeniably claimed than pisskop was.
So you get to specify any method you like for how or why you vote and I get to ignore you.

and I currently also strongly read Davsto and Shazam as scum so we are good to go.

If they both get lynched and the game doesn't end....
whoever is alive will get to resolve the problem.

[AxleGreaser]

MarioManiac4

(10) - Davsto,

Slandaar

,

Shiro

,

Sakura Hana

,

BananaCucho

, Shazam,

Salamence20

,

Ricastle

, Spiffeh,

pisskop

We need to lynch in here...more VCA later after I walk the dog.

your VCA?

not while I'm at work.

You walk dogs for a living?

Oh BTW Skip, tells me to tell you, your dog thinks he need more pats.
Also your initial VCA makes more sense than EchoEcho's. (town points to you.)

[AxleGreaser]

I'm bugging everyone this game.

Try to figure out when I bug people if that means I'm town or scum....................

No axle, you weren't going levels deep. This was you being serious.

You appear to be very poor judge of what i am serious about.

You walk dogs for a living?

Piss off

My post showed you why I had asked again for your VCA. Earlier you had said it would come after walking the dog. I could guess walkign th edog took longer than you thought then you went to work or you could tell.
(I know you don't lie about real world stuff, and take da rulez seriously BTW.)

and the rest of post, is revisting RVS chat as me trying to better work out your alignment is perhaps over as you have decided to be, whatever it is you are being.

You have four choices, except they are not choices as they got made for you and me earlier.

I'm town, your town and i am wrong. Shit happens get over it.
I'm town your not, and I am right. Shit happens get over it.
I'm scum and your town (but you read me as town). Shit happens get over it.
I'm scum and your scum (shh I think their buying it) Shit happens get over it.

Also... and perhaps most importantly... I know, IRL happens dont get over it, that is whats actually important. kk.

If I offend thee I apologize. I was literally playing a game with words. I thought it was with friends. Turns out I was playing with myself.

[AxleGreaser]

taking a 12+ hr break.

[AxleGreaser]

Uh wat

[AxleGreaser]

I'm trying to think what's the best approach here.
We currently have 8 ppl alive.
Which means 6-2 or 5-3
If we're wrong here, we can afford to sort out you 2 tomrorow and if you're both town im hell of a lot sure that the mafia will abuse that fact.

sakura how the hell is 14-5 ballanced with a 2shot vig?

like double myslynch and double misshot is day 3 lylo

I also don't like 15-4. (Where we get 4 mislynches and two vig kills AND 4 conf town roles AND JOAT)
(that build the basis of a POE monster even if you assume Vig hits town, but less readable town).

but Davsto either currently flips scum and it goes on
or town (like he 'claims') and we find out

[AxleGreaser]

Uh wat

I was basically 100% certain to be lynched today, fighting it would be entirely unnecessary and probably make you people scumread me more, and seriously you guys needed a kick up the ass to lynch Shazam and Me flipping town better be it.

I am sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo Glad you decided that for me. Geeeeeee ta.

I was about to unvote and think about recent developments, maybe even ask question of two.

truthfully, I am however personally thankful, as it is obligation making me play. No you saved me the trouble.

[AxleGreaser]

There was also an ika mason counterclaim to Echo yesterday, but ika never pursued echo since ika was townreading echo.

Er that would be specifically untrue

skakura im going to be direct here and try to say it in a nice format. cus the post kinda irks me ina bad manner

shazam and dave are my top 2 scum reads. echo is the final if it doesnt end between those 2.

[AxleGreaser]

So I'm looking at our options here.
If we assume that Echo claimed Mason to out ika then Echo's scum.
ika also didn't want us to deviate from sala's townbloc, that would make Echo town and would make Shazam the next in the lynch pool.
Also if we assume Echo town that means there's 2 scum in Axle/Spiffeh/DGB/Shazam

Axle has been the only one i've seen here actually following the game along and trying to solve it, he's the person i think is the most town out of those 4.
I want to know what he thinks about DGB since i think he thought frog was scum at some point?

As pointed out Ika was scum reading Echo recently.

Echo did soft CC, mason here 3301, but IKa went along with it, assuming it might be echo having worked out ika was the mason and was drawing the kill. (see 3347)

However Echo also voted Ika late yesterday

VOTE: ika

@EchoEcho please explain your vote on ika yesterday

[AxleGreaser]

@TOWN

VLA

I will be going VLA thurs afternoon My time +10.
Its tues morn, we have 48 + 8hrs to get this done.

I will have zero access from then until on Oct 3.

[AxleGreaser]

@DGB (this is a little chronological as you were not here)

All of the people that have died after my claim have claimed Masons in the thread.
One of my JOAT abilities is 1-shot BP, i've also claimed a 1-shot Track (Night 3 > firebringer towards shiro) and 1-shot RB (Night 4 on Shazam)

If you have 3 abilities, why did you use 2 of them them on nights

3 & 4

??????

The track by Sakura on Fire is a little odd.
Indeed the whole day is, especially if you start wondering if Sakura can be scum.

It started with Sakura scum reading, fire using this 2130 (thats a pretty large determined bussing attempt.)

Sala (a flipped 2 shot vig) claimed a second shot on Fire. link

(If sakura was scum planning to bus, that(Sala) will take most of the town credit for getting scum lynched.)

Fire claims 1 shot bullet proof http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p7213422

Echo imposes himself on the thread, 2188 and drives a counter wagon on Pisskop 2189
with the claim that this

does commuter trump asshole sala? serious Q

was Pisskop seriously claiming commuter. (Its true piss didnt disavow the claim when it got mumbled about several times)

Having stopped(chainsawed) the Fire wagon on the basis of Salas vig shot.

Sakura, goes back to pushing the lynch. Fails to get traction.
(at this point in time I(Axle) had just voted fire as second vote on the wagon.
Sakura does this

Is this the part where i say that fire targeted shiro last night?

Which is a kinda soft claim. For someone with very very red check.

WHy is it so red?

Well Fire claimed BP. How can Fire be both a BP and visit someone?
So sakura has known ever since fire claimed BP that sakura had a100% red check track on scum.

The play between then and now, is alittle hard to line up with a towny having that knowledge.

I could even wonder about the if instead of when in this statement.

If Fire flips scum, then Frogger's scum with Fire.

During that time, after the aborted wagon on fire due to Salas shot, while Sakura had a red check on Fire
Sakura did this

ok

Vote: Pisskop
Proxying my vote to Salamence.

bearing in mind that

pisskop (5) -

Firebringer

, Davsto, Salamence20, Fro99er, Sakura Hana

While sakura was sheeping the Vig, she was also voting the wagon that was counter wagon to what Sakura knew was certain scum.
Seems a little odd.

[AxleGreaser]

Er that would be specifically untrue

Hmm i guess i remembered wrong then.
Why didnt he vote Echo yesterday... I remember specifically asking and he said something about Echo wanting to eat a bullet for him.

Actually screw thinking, supposed town mason ika would be voting supposed scum suspect Echo who had claimed Mason when it's ika's role.

Vote: ika

yeah it has been a while.

Ika did not counter claim Echo as it made sense that Echo might be trying to draw the nk by softing mason.

However when Echo voted Ika... Ika spat the dummy. Echo voting Ika makes no sense as a towny trying to draw the nk of the mason.

As a scum play, what Echo's play lines up with is scum keen to draw the explicit claim from Ika. So they can nk him.

I dont have any towny explanation for Echos play.

[AxleGreaser]

@Thread

.

I would like to have time to play this out differently(slower) but i dont have time.
So here it is.

I have been thinking rather lot overnight, and reconsidering my reads rather a lot.

Shazam: I find a significant amount of town read on Shazam from the early game, I had talked myself out of believing it while I looked for 3 scum. (my read on Shazam is much weaker)

Fro99er: I tried really hard, and I can now imagine a town Fro99er. (So DGB, yeah i have had very strong scum read on your slot. Today is new day. Also stuff i had been thinking doesnt make as much sense with 2 scum.)

Echo Echo: My scum read on Echo Echo has grown significantly. (TLDR: Echo Echo did NOT drive the TN wagon he flopped around on it near the start and voted early. He did however drive the Flubber Pisskpop wagons. don't recall from memory how hard he pushed for davsto.)

Sakura: As mentioned above for Sakura to be Echo echos buddy would be hard.

Spiffeh: Just an ordinary town read. Unless someone can make scum case I believe.

[AxleGreaser]

TLDR: If I had to vote one person right now. It would be Echo echo.
Why?
I dont actually have a rational case yet, but it feels right.

[AxleGreaser]

We have TWO DEAD GOONS.

The remaining scum has powerz.

One of the flipped goons survived a claimed nk from a flipped 2 shot town Vig.
So doctor. +?

Scary(and bad?) would be if the had a scum vig shot up their sleeve. (but dont trust me on spec as far as you can throw me.)

[AxleGreaser]

Sakura what are your views on Why echo echo would have voted Ika at the end of the day?

[AxleGreaser]

Didn't that happen before ika claimed Mason? I'll go and re-read

Yeah it did.

Who could Echo echo have thought was the mason if it wasn't Echo?

[AxleGreaser]

So Echo soft-claims Mason, says that we need to lynch Davsto and last scum is between ika or Shazam, ika does nothing Echo votes Davsto.
ika yells about lynching Davsto.
Echo votes ika.
ika rages and counter claims Echo (ika's confirmed to be Mason now by Night Kill).
Possible theories:
Town!Echo thought ika was aiming for a mislynch and switched vote.
Scum!Echo decided to mislynch ika instead.

What i don't understand is... the whole thing with the ika CC and thinking Echo could be scum while simultanously thinking that Echo was trying to draw a bullet, Echo's read progression towards voting ika from Davsto is unclear.

P-Edit: Imma go and recheck Echo's reads.

Ika had thought, that if Echo echo was town, then echo echo had softed mason to draw the shot. If was a very soft mason claim.
Echo did not say he was mason just asked if it would make the VLA of if the was the mason.

It looked like a fake claim. I wondered whether scum would think it real or not.

[AxleGreaser]

Ok Echo's reads are not exactly clear but we can probably figure it out.

Davsto/ika/Shazam were Echo's scumreads, obviously he didn't think was the Mason.
Frogger's constant mentioning that he should be lynched, obviously that's not a Mason.
I was a claimed JOAT.

My guess is... you?

That would be daft. The two people that never voted the other mason nor were voted by them were echo echo and ika.
I bvelieve IIRC that some people had openly speculated(mooted those two names as the one of them being the mason)

That Echo echo would put Ika in the list of possible scum but never vote him(before then), is not inconsistent with knowing hes the mason.
If you are covering for the mason that is what you ought do. (especially if it is the result of VCA)

[AxleGreaser]

Scum!Echo decided to mislynch ika instead.

Scum echo wanted Ika to claim so he could be the obvious shot.

[AxleGreaser]

Possible theories:
Town!Echo thought ika was aiming for a mislynch and switched vote.
Scum!Echo decided to mislynch ika instead.

No matter what Echo echos alignment
This is not Echo echo driving to lynch IKa

VOTE: ika

It was only the second vote. To lynch Ika from there would have taken effort and Echo echo would have known that.

[AxleGreaser]

I bvelieve IIRC that some people had openly speculated(mooted those two names as the one of them being the mason)

yeah it was fro99er.

Echo/ika - one of these two is the other Mason but scum can go try to figure it out

[AxleGreaser]

Ika's meta makes him either obviously town or obviously scum. He's obviously town.

also when trying to decide why Echo echo voted Ika there is this problem that i just came across.

[AxleGreaser]

By the way, ika's obviously town. I'll defend him to the grave.

and this one....

[AxleGreaser]

As mentioned I am going VLA.
Even if we no lynch there is no guarantee scum would shoot Sakura. (once and then once again)(assuming the BP is legit)
There is stuff I need to put in the thread. ordinarily Id wait and see how stuff plays out today, but with Echo VLA, I cant play this how I want to.

I would suggest what is in the spoilers may not yet be relevant. But if I die.... then yeah it is. If this day plays out in the some of the ways it might, then yeah it is.
meanwhile i am writing it down while i have some time. (I also have to get ready to go away)

Spoiler: Is Echo Echo the alt of a competent mafia player

TLDR: YEP

or just comptetent without caring about choosing between alt or visiting player from another site.
These posts say yes

VOTE: Aeronaut

So you're saying a town player should have lurked then? Is that what you're saying?

You're trying to paint me as scum without ascertaining the motivations. That's scummy.

Technically, it's called mudslinging. I'm accusing you of doing so.

The above is scum hunting technique i have seen used exclusively by players who are regarded as at least "not bad"

This is damn fine push.

This needs to go.

VOTE: Axle.



Looking in his posts, they lack content. All of it is filler and feel awkward in the sense that they state facts but never provide their own opinion on the game. He has no townreads or scumreads, and to put it bluntly, is just coasting.

I understand why Frogger townread him off Post 8, but it appears to be something playstyle-dependednt and can be easily faked as scum. Frogger mistakenly townread him for a null action because he saw Axle perform it a couple of times before. He has since revised this read.

Ostensibly, he has not provided his thoughts on the game, or on any players, or any reasonable votes that a town player would have made early game. The best he has provided theory discussion that is unfortunately not very correct.

Its BS. It wont fly. It is place to park his vote.
AND
I think it would express a legit concern. My play yup to there had been "odd" (for reasons)

TLDR 418 Is not altogether fluff. And it does reflect my read of how Echo echo evaluates his own skill level and experience and the stature with which he would expect to be seen if he claimed who he was.

Are his two VCAs bollocks

Spoiler: yep

Also see my previous criticism of them

2808 raw data conclusion 2809 bad explanation 2820
This bit for instance is awful

Look at bearbert's vote on the flubber wagon. It is at vote 7 out of 8. Looks pretty safe and scummy right. I think so too.

Not once Bear flips town, this wagon and votes on it do not even figure in his next analysis.

new VCA raw data 3314 revised VCA 3321
That wagon now has no importance at all.
It is not that the wagon is inconsistent with his final conclusion, but this time it plays no part in the analysis.

That the analysis is BS, was clear to me from the start. What echo echo had if he is town is other reasons for having the reads that his VCA gives as their answer, and then he gets them.
The most the VCA does is not contradict his reads.
Which is kind of fair enough ,as thats what VCA is good for, validating and idiot checking your reads.

My problem is it feels like way to lynch people with clean hands, when echo echo doesnt also say they are his reads. WHile not on the same level as when noobs do it, that can be seen as retreating into the safety of a mechanistic approach to making reads and choosing which wagon to drive.

Echo possibly distancing from the Davsto flip.

I'm still testing my VCA, so for science, I'm going to leave my vote on you.

If you're town, sorry.

Yeah but Echo echo is in the town block because.....

He did not really DRIVE the tn wagon.

Spoiler: TN posts

Shazam 1526 noted the echo echo post was odd.
He does quote 1081 where tn expressed strong opinions about mario being scum BUT echo echo di not point out that was incongruous with Tn later jumping off the wagon 1147.
It was spiffeh in 1485 that made the actual observation of how bad that was and why.

and then basically no more pushing of the tn wagon
1649 is not exactly driving the lynch home

Its true that even drawing as much attention as 1483 did, is a risk to do to a scum buddy.

Spoiler: Echos, Views on Aero

VOTE: TN

Any objections to an Areo shot?

I object. Please shoot Davesto.

Spoiler: Echo actually driving a flubber wagon

1838 one might even suggest he was trying to impose himself and his will on the thread (with a big picture)
inviting more votes.

VOTE: Flubbernugget

Follow me!

1857 1862 1866 1925

Spoiler: Echo actually driving a pisskop/bearbert wagon

2188 one might even suggest he was trying to impose himself and his will on the thread (with a big picture)
2189

2809 and onwards lots more serious pushing of Pisskop/Bear Slot.

Conclusion: Whatever town Cred EchoEcho had for making posts that might be unwise as scum (see spoiler about TN above)

is more than compensated for by driving two town wagons quite hard, and advocating for the nk off scum(Aero) and onto town(Davsto).

NOTE: TOWN fuckup too.

THAT ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ is not a case.

It is what is, and what Echo echo status as a member of the town block no longer is.

[AxleGreaser]

I don't see a missing kill. I have a hard time believing that you have a passive BP mixed in with two active abilities. Claim all your targets now. It's Day 7. You have 6 nights to account for.

From most suspicious to least

9 Sakura Hana

8

+ bus'ed by Firebringer

Spiffeh

5 Echo
5 Shazam
4 Shiro
4 Axle

The interesting thing about blind objective numerical algorithms, is that they can be applied to anyone.

FYI: I think Implemented your algorithm right and your slot scored 7.

Also I have not actually gone back and done it, but i suspect i might usually score low on your scum computer as all alignments as i don't sheep much.
But also wont show up in the other category that you sometimes use where people are suspicious for never voting any major wagons.(or perhaps its frequently not voting?)

If you make up another algorithm where you count every one hiding not on the main wagon (irrespective of alignment of the main wagons flip)
then as i march to the beat of my own drum often, then I would habitually show up with a high score.

I strongly suspect you scum puter has bias that will always tend to score me low.

Another thing that is odd to me is why you expect second scum on this bearbert wagon

Bearbert D

(5) -

Firebringer

,

Davsto, Vedith

, DrippingGoofball, Sakura Hana
DrippingGoofball (2) - Shazam, AxleGreaser
Davsto (2) - Bearbert D, Echo Echo
Shazam (1) - Ricastle
One of these is scum Sakura Hana

Surely according to your assumptions once you find enough scum on a wagon then any unflipped people look townier not scummier.


I also find it odd that your analysis doesnt allow for who recently jumped off a wagon such as this one.

Davsto (5) - ika, AxleGreaser, Spiffeh, Sakura Hana, Davsto
ika (2) - Shazam, Echo Echo
One of these is scum AxleGreaser, Spiffef, Sakura Hana

[AxleGreaser]

AxleGreaser is town.

WHAT IF ONE OF THE SAKURA HANA JOAT SCUM POWERS IS A 1-SHOT DOCTOR???

If Sakura hana is scum. What would make you think she told any part of the truth about her role? especially the tracker part?
Id be more inclide to think scum has full doc. or two a shot one at least.

And whiel i am speculating (remembering how bad i am at balance) the other scum role beinga role cop would be interestign as they have to jhunt the mod confirmable townies.

[AxleGreaser]

Surely according to your assumptions once you find enough scum on a wagon then any unflipped people look townier not scummier.

There tends to be more scum on wagons than expected by chance.

And so you are speculating there is an apriori assumption of 50% scum on that wagon?

err nope.

either you're bad at this probability stuff (pdf's and the like) or you dont really believe that either.

Also I am not at home, but when i get there I am pretty sure, that I will link to places in previous games, where you previously expliclty worked with (no more scum than by chance)

Well actually what would explain there being more than 1 scum on that wagon is if the other wagon was on scum.

Bearbert D

(5) -

Firebringer

,

Davsto, Vedith

, DrippingGoofball, Sakura Hana
Drippin

gG

oofball (2) - Shazam, AxleGreaser
Davsto (2) - Bearbert D, Echo Echo
Sh

az

am (1) - Ricastle
One of these is scum Sakura Hana

So if one of Shazam or DripingGoofBall(at the time Frogger) was scum then there might be stronger tendecy for scum to be on the BearBert wagon

[AxleGreaser]

I really want to lynch Sakura Hana.

But as scum really might feel compelled to kill her and solve that for us.

Who else would you want to lynch today instead?

[AxleGreaser]

lso I am not at home, but when i get there I am pretty sure, that I will link to places in previous games, where you previously expliclty worked with (no more scum than by chance)

oops.
I misread what happened in this other game, (a bit)

---

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 8#p3246568
you were scum and used different base chance for each wagon (The doubling however appears to have something to do with the wagons reforming a second time)
(but basically each wagon had an approximately random expectation of scum)
then this one had some other way of estimating how many scum on the wagon
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 3#p3228113
however all the numbers were in the range 25% scum to 30% so it wasnt really that much different to random for any one wagon.

So,
I am not really buying your belief in higher than random of scum and specifically thinking that this particular wagon would have 50% scum for no particular reason.

Spoiler: the wagon

Bearbert D (5) - Firebringer, Davsto, Vedith, DrippingGoofball, Sakura Hana
One of these is scum Sakura Hana

which implictly meant DGB thought here wer two sum on 5 man wagon = 40% scum.

AND to be very clear my problem with that is it does not feel like a mathematician working something out. It feels like a paper mashay volcano made for a school project.

If it was general belief of yours that there are more than the average number of scum on wagons then some of your previous wagons would have been expected to have several scum.

THis is wagon on town with small counter wagon on scum

Flubbernugget

(8) - Echo Echo,

Vedith,

Sakura Hana,

Shiro

, DrippingGoofball,

Davsto, Bearbert D,

Spiffeh

Firebringer

(2) -

Ricastle

, AxleGreaser
One of these is scum Sakura Hana, Spiffeh, Echo Echo, Shiro

me finding one or even two scum on the town wagon would make me feel good about the reads.
Expected number of scum on the wagon if I see such a wagon many times is >1

Heres another (a humdinger)

Bearbert D

(4) -

Firebringer,

Echo Echo, AxleGreaser, DrippingGoofball

Firebringer

(4) - Shazam, Sakura Hana,

Bearbert D, Vedith

DrippingGoofball (1) -

Ricastle

One of these is scum Axlegreaser, Echo Echo

There is wagon on town and a competitive one on scum.

You read read me as town, 3441
That wagon has counter wagon on scum, you have looked at your own PM, so it looks to me like you ought be weighting Echo echo pretty heavily as scum for that vote.

From

my point of view

,

as I have not seen your PM

.

Bearbert D

(4) -

Firebringer,

Echo Echo

, AxleGreaser,

DrippingGoofball

Firebringer

(4) - Shazam, Sakura Hana,

Bearbert D, Vedith

DrippingGoofball

(1) -

Ricastle

One of these is scum Axlegreaser, Echo Echo

I can even accept 3 scum on the wagon as plausible, given that then all counter wagons are on scum.

BTW
how sure are you about this

AxleGreaser is town.

and how did you reach that conclusion?

[AxleGreaser]

EBWOP /Errata (whoops)

this particular wagon would have 40% scum for no particular reason.

heres me calling you out on bad math I have a mental arithmetic fail.

[AxleGreaser]

Wait a second, DGB, since when do you do VCA?

err wat

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Scumputer

[AxleGreaser]

@Echo Echo
From my reading
DGB also qualitatively scores people who look like they are hiding from it.
I have not checked as his methodology varies considerably.

On this occasion for instance he didnt find out Shiro was dead flipped towny....

DGB scumputering.
It does not look to me like a VCA done with the due diligence of someone trying to work stuff out.
Given that the stuff he left out of his own algorithm is essential to the algorithm, also does not sit well.

That the stuff left out biases, the algorithm towards finding anyone who votes on lot of wagons scummy (AKA Sakura) is also not cool

That he failed to notice Shiro was flipped towny, also does not speak of due diligence and working stuff out.

ALIVE
Sakura Hana
AxleGreaser
Spiffeh
Shazam
DrippingGoofball
Echo Echo

I don't see a missing kill. I have a hard time believing that you have a passive BP mixed in with two active abilities. Claim all your targets now. It's Day 7. You have 6 nights to account for.

From most suspicious to least
9 Sakura Hana
8 + bus'ed by Firebringer Spiffeh
5 Echo
5 Shazam

4 Shiro

4 Axle

[AxleGreaser]

The YOU look at it. What do YOU see?

I see that this scum team makes significant sense

Modified coloutring of DGB's Vote counts. + My comments

I Am Innocent

(7) -

Ricastle

,

Bearbert D

,

Vedith

, Sakura Hana, Spiffeh,

Shiro

,

BananaCucho

Davsto

(2) -

Slandaar

, AxleGreaser

Echo Echo

(2) -

Davsto

,

Flubbernugget

Vedith

(2) -

MarioManiac4

,

tn5421

tn5421

(1) -

DrippingGoofball

Spiffeh (1) -

Firebringer

AxleGreaser (1) -

Echo Echo

Ricastle

(1) -

I Am Innocent

DrippingGoofball

(1) - Shazam

One of these is scum

Sakura Hana, Spiffeh

This wagon has always seemed to me to be wagon with little to no case, early D1 to drive out of RVS properly, it was always plausible there were zero scum.

Davsto

(7) -

BananaCucho

,

Echo Echo

, Sakura Hana,

Vedith

,

DrippingGoofball

,

I Am Innocent

,

Bearbert D

Vedith

(2) -

MarioManiac4

,

tn5421

MarioManiac4

(2) - Spiffeh,

Davsto

Echo Echo

(1) -

Flubbernugget

I Am Innocent

(1) - AxleGreaser
Spiffeh (1) -

Firebringer

DrippingGoofball

(1) - Shazam

One of these is scum

Echo Echo

, Sakura Hana

DrippingGoofball

This one seems little scum heavy. But hey perhaps they needed to make up fpor missing out on being seen to be active D1 on the previous wagon that happened FAST.
(basically meh its not great or perfect but lets keep looking)

MarioManiac4

(10) -

Davsto

,

Slandaar

,

Shiro

, Sakura Hana,

BananaCucho

, Shazam,

Vedith

,

Ricastle

, Spiffeh,

Bearbert D

Davsto

(4) -

Echo Echo

,

DrippingGoofball

,

I Am Innocent

,

MarioManiac4

I Am Innocent

(2) - AxleGreaser,

Flubbernugget

Vedith

(1) -

tn5421

Spiffeh (1) -

Firebringer

One of these is scum

Sakura Hana, Spiffeh, Shazam

Why would there now be no scum on this wagon? because they were on the last one and didn't want to look like they were wagon hopping.
In some sense this is the same event that looks less likely than random to have happened as this one is caused by the last one.

tn5421

(9) -

Echo Echo

, Spiffeh,

Vedith

,

Davsto

, Shazam,

Ricastle

, Sakura Hana,

Bearbert D

,

ika

Davsto

(1) - AxleGreaser

I Am Innocent

(1) -

tn5421

Spiffeh (1) -

I Am Innocent

Flubbernugget

(1) -

Shiro

One of these is scum

Sakura Hana, Spiffeh,

Echo Echo

, Shazam

Echo is bussing. Wheres Fro99er, he was AFK. This is Ok.

Flubbernugget

(8) -

Echo Echo

,

Vedith

, Sakura Hana,

Shiro

,

DrippingGoofball

,

Davsto

,

Bearbert D

, Spiffeh

Firebringer

(2) -

Ricastle

, AxleGreaser

One of these is scum

Sakura Hana, Spiffeh,

Echo Echo

,

DrippingGoofball

So why is scum lynching ton today? because they paid in advance for the town cred yesterday.
and 2 is about the right number of scum on an 8 man wagon (according to the scumputer)

Bearbert D

(4) -

Firebringer

,

Echo Echo

, AxleGreaser,

DrippingGoofball

Firebringer

(4) - Shazam, Sakura Hana,

Bearbert D

,

Vedith

DrippingGoofball

(1) -

Ricastle

One of these is scum

Axlegreaser,

Echo Echo

DrippingGoofball

This wagon looks heavy with scum, until we notice the counter wagon are also scum. If nothing else they have survival as an excuse.

Bearbert D

(5) -

Firebringer

,

Davsto

,

Vedith

,

DrippingGoofball

, Sakura Hana

DrippingGoofball

(2) - Shazam, AxleGreaser

Davsto

(2) -

Bearbert D

,

Echo Echo

Shazam (1) -

Ricastle

One of these is scum

Sakura Hana

The pressure comes off and Echo is off the wagon.

Firebringer

(7) - Sakura Hana, AxleGreaser,

Davsto

,

Ricastle

,

Bearbert D

,

Vedith

,

DrippingGoofball

Bearbert D

(1) -

Firebringer

DrippingGoofball

(1) - Shazam

Davsto

(1) -

Echo Echo

One of these is scum

Sakura Hana, Axlegreaser

DrippingGoofball

This wagon after Axle happened so fast it is meaningless. Sakura has a claimed red check. People checked in saw the red check and voted.
There exist ways to wifom about Sakura red check being bus to secure town credit, but it had been very long determined bus. First there was case then a push finally a claim.

DrippingGoofball

(4) - AxleGreaser,

DrippingGoofball

,

Ricastle

, Shazam

Bearbert D

(1) -

Davsto

Davsto

(1) -

Bearbert D

One of these is scum

Shazam, Axlegreaser

Well the wagon has the standard number of scum so there appears to be nbo problem here.

Bearbert D

(6) -

Echo Echo

, Spiffeh,

DrippingGoofball

,

Davsto

, Shazam,

Ricastle

DrippingGoofball

(2) - AxleGreaser, Sakura Hana
Shazam (2) -

ika

,

Bearbert D

One of these is scum

Echo Echo

, Spiffeh, Shazam

Again this wagon is little scum heavy and again its counter wagon would have been on scum.

Davsto

(5) -

ika

, AxleGreaser, Spiffeh, Sakura Hana,

Davsto

ika

(2) - Shazam,

Echo Echo

One of these is scum

AxleGreaser, Spiffef, Sakura Hana

In any real analysis, paying attention to Echo Echo jumping of the Davsto wagon onto IKA, having wanted Dvasto lynched all day.. ought count for something.
Also I have coloured Davsto orange as he self hammered as towny... that wagons not really quite like it ought be.
I am happy in claiming that scum hands of Echo were on the lynch.

[AxleGreaser]

She replaced Frogger, which was a good and probably town slot.

No that was magical conlsuion based on basically nothing that you pulled out of here

Assumption: Scum weren't very active early game, from VCs 1.1 to 1.5
Assumption: Scum would try not to vote each other early game.
Assumption: in VC 1.4: tn is the only scum hopping on the Frogger wagon. The firebringer vote on Spiffeh was not a bus.

Conclusion: Frogger is town. Spiffeh maybe town.

So based on wagon that was purely RVS you concluded Fro99er was town?

Yeah right.

[AxleGreaser]

I don't see a lot of scum voting for scum so far. Do you?

I have cure for that.

When you color in posiible scum team as I did in 3478.

I got lots of scum voting for one another.

You could try suggesting a different permutation of who is scum that does not involve you and has a suitable coloring in.

[AxleGreaser]

Hmm 6 ppl alive and 4 to lynch, most likely 2 scum, 2 votes from town on town mean QH.
So if you want to prove your theory DGB why don't you vote me, if i don't get QH then that means that either im scum, or 1 of you / Echo or both are scum.

Brinkmanship.

[AxleGreaser]

When you color in posiible scum team as I did in 3478.

Yeah but you put me in red, and I happen to know that I am town, so I pay no heed to that particular theory. I do appreciate your input just the same though.

Yeah that is how I coloured it in to see if that scum team makes sense and it does,

If you want me to believe in your VCA you will need to colour in a scum team.

There may be wagon that VCA says need more scum on them from the unflipped payers.
BUT to make sense teams where both the new scum appear in the wrong places that dont make sense together is not plausible.

because i am fairly sure i want to lynch someone other than Sakura >>today<<.

I want see if scum have the balls to to not kill her if shes town.

[AxleGreaser]

And what do you think about a JOAT with a passive, 1-shot BP ability? Does this make sense as town or scum role?

I kind of like it as town role. I dont know whether it has historically been used.

Straight kills all fgoing thorugh by vig and scum wind up at LYLO.
Scum if they make save put us at MYLO, if they hit the BP that gets us back a mislynch.
The 1 shot BP. Gives town some confidence to hold of on making their tracks and stuff, until they have better idea than a D1 shot in the dark.

[AxleGreaser]

Axle how can you give such a compelling case for Sakura being scum and then want to lynch someone else?

I solved the game just let me take the wheel.

because I wanted mice to come out and play?
So dont necessarily bite the cheese.
Do note IIRC. I even asked Sakura the question about tracking the claimed Bp yesterday, but you dint think ti so important then. It is not as slam dunk as all that.
Townies sometimes just mess up.


I have also been reading Sakura's filter, and I find it quite towny looking.

I get contradictory reads from different aspects of different players game.

[AxleGreaser]

We don't have enough time for that. Currently we are at MYLO, which means that scum don't even have to kill Sakura, they could kill yourself, me, or DGB if they think we are more town-looking than Sakura.

Yeah, we have enough time to lynch a scum today and see who they kill.

My current best scum read is you.

I am currently leaning second on DrippingGoofBall.

Third I am still thinking about. (but there are only two)

[AxleGreaser]

I have also been reading Sakura's filter, and I find it quite towny looking.

Spiffeh go back and rerad Sakura's D1.
Is she inquisitive?
Trying to find stuff out?
proactive.

When First Sala and then she jumped the IaI wagon why did you follow? Mario vote le resistance?

Was it because you felt the day need something to happen?
Who would do that and why?

Town would.
And very good scum.

I leaned town on that push quite bit. Its why I have been saying for long time yeah but that wagon could be all town.

Lots of people town read Sakuras play, and it was for a reason.

[AxleGreaser]

there is a wide variety of town roles... a JOAT is the perfect counterpoint.

There were 3 masons, a flower vendor and two shot vig.

Why and how is Joat a counter to that?

Straight up doctor would be.

[AxleGreaser]

Hmm 6 ppl alive and 4 to lynch, most likely 2 scum, 2 votes from town on town mean QH.
So if you want to prove your theory DGB why don't you vote me, if i don't get QH then that means that either im scum, or 1 of you / Echo or both are scum.

Brinkmanship.

Also spiffeh ^^^^ brinkmanship is town points.
If sakura is scum and those two are both town, that is dangerous way to play.
(There are players who would do that, I dont think Sakura is one (...))

[AxleGreaser]

Against 3 masons? That's really powerful. You guys lynched masons, right???

Yes you claimed it was somehow synergising or perfect counter point.

there is a wide variety of town roles... a JOAT is the perfect counterpoint.

you have shown no way way it is a counterpoint.

That does not seem like a genuine thought.

[AxleGreaser]

There were 3 masons, a flower vendor and two shot vig.

AND a gunsmith >>> which kinda goes against the vig.

Yep the mods like to give roles Achilles heels like that.

So this perfect counter point is?

[AxleGreaser]

So be specific this time Ealrier you claimed to have reached the point where you would say unequivocally

AxleGreaser is town.

and when i asked

and how did you reach that conclusion?

Your behavior today.

Looking at possible scum teams isn't helping, I cannot find any pair that I would categorically disallow.

I am a bit less sure about Axletown than I was coming in, but my mind is still open.

So be specific what first had you at an unequivocal Town read (despite having already done your scumputer)
and now are trending back from that.

[AxleGreaser]

Axle I agree that Sakura has seemed very town throughout the whole game. I have admitted to thinking such very recently. However, there is just too much evidence against her at this point. Please tell me how a town-aligned JOAT 1-shot roleblock, 1-shot track, and BPV can be balanced in this setup. Keep in mind that of the mafia members that have flipped, there have only been mafia goons.

How is it not balanced and as she has had role for while, when did this become problem?

What is all this evidence of which you speak?

Goofball analysis is bollocks it does not even follow his own rules. See(http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Scumputer) (important parts of that are left out)

He did not subtract off the expected number of scum when there were flipped scum. (4 players voting 1 scum flipped he claimed he expcted second? Why? or even how the fuck did he think that?)
When i pointed that out he claimed oh yes wagons have more than average scum. (but failed to explain why it was just that wagon that had extras)
That is precisely what his algorithm does not assume. (Var G explicitly subtracts them off and not doing so is DAFT.)

His algorithm is ALSO meant to subtract of the background random rate at which random people would flip scum ( "

(VAR H * 100) - (VAR B * 100)

")
He did not do that. That biases the algorithm towards scum reading anyone who is active and voting lots of wagons.
Indeed people who are strongly town read wind up on big wagons because they are strongly town read.
So DGB's algorithm that he used in this game tends to scum read people who are town reads.

I said people make mistakes. So DGB could have too. So I asked him about the mistakes.
HE doubled down by claiming that the computation on the wagon with an already flipped scum was correct.
It is not, It is rubbish.

Do note.
I am pretty sure that if you were really figuring the game out and implemented the algorithm on the wiki page fairly it would still lean scum on Sakura.
If you were really being fair you would have ignored or discounted some early wagons as they were at best barely out of RVS.

Also, if you go look at my colouring in of the wagons 3478 <<<(Axle colors in aproposed scum team to see if it makes sense)

magic with numbers can make sakura look scummy, BUT there is nothing VCA like that is significantly wrong with the scum team of
Echo Echo and DrippignGoofBall.

As when you color in all the votes for that team it is quite fine. 3478

Then VCA cannot possibly indicate it must be Sakura. as other scum teams makes sense just fine.

That DGB VCA is not and cannot be strong evidence against Sakura.

[AxleGreaser]

So be specific this time Ealrier you claimed to have reached the point where you would say unequivocally

AxleGreaser is town.

and when i asked

and how did you reach that conclusion?

Your behavior today.

Looking at possible scum teams isn't helping, I cannot find any pair that I would categorically disallow.

I am a bit less sure about Axletown than I was coming in, but my mind is still open.

So be specific what first had you at an unequivocal Town read (despite having already done your scumputer)
and now are trending back from that.

So your answer for specific reasons is

I am spontaneous like that.

You are spontaneous like that?

[AxleGreaser]

That DGB VCA is not and cannot be strong evidence against Sakura.

I never claimed this and even said it made no sense to me.

Look at my post 3485 for my reasons.

sry skipped that one.
(I am not scum reading you so it didnt reach the top of the priority queue. I am busy deciding just how sure i am of which reads.)
(even which bits of which reads, AKA my reading of sakura via the thread, and th apparent intent of posts, vs that claim)

and yes sorry about that 3420 is why out of DGB and Echo echo i would like to lynch Echo first.

I posit the reason you cant understand the VCA in part is because they are bollocks.
(i have just a bit more than lot of RL experience at algorithms(heuristics) like scumputer, so i can see what the algorithm ought be, and see what its not as implemented in this game.)

This may leave us screwed.

Fro99er slot is still the towniest town to have ever towned.

as town need every vote to lynch scum.
Can you explain to me why you say that about Fro99er?

[AxleGreaser]

You are spontaneous like that?

Yes, and from my perspective, you're kinda tunneling on a townie, so that's not in your favor.

You are failing to really look at the rest. As such I no longer think your line of inquiry is necessarily town-motivated.

Err thats bollocks have you read my filter?

Where exactly do you think it was that someone (me identified that sakura track claim was questionable with the BP claim and sheeping Sala?)

I have looked very hard at lots of people. Its you who appear to have narrow focus.

If you want me to believe in your VCA you will need to colour in a scum team.

I am not ready to do that right now, I am replacing in and I haven't read the thread.

I am hoping to see who feels town to help me narrow things down.

[AxleGreaser]

Ever since Fro99er's Day 1 post vomit I have been fairly certain he was town.

Did this mean the post vomit made him town, or the stuff since then made him town.
and can you explain it to me?

[AxleGreaser]

Fro99er is town he just seems to stream of conscious/erratic to be scum.

Was it this?
and if so can you point to bits that particularly lean that way.

[AxleGreaser]

Fro99er was scum in Delicious Mafia 2 which ended very recently and his play here does not resemble his play there in the slightest.

He was drunk Fro99er.

he has played scum a few times now.
Rolling scum yet again can make it all just too hard.
What i am speaking from is experience, my scum game has turned radical corners over time.
I was overly angry and aggressive for couple of games, then pulled out perfect win being widely town read (offsite)

I got no sense of him figuring the game out D1 or D2.

I found the pushes on Tn aero and the like to not feel genuine. Tack on additions to his actual push on me.


But as it was drunk fro99er i wrote off d1, and then I couldnt find town Fro99er the other days either.

[AxleGreaser]

Its nearly 5am I am going to bed.
I will read delicious mafia 2 tomorrow soemtime.

[AxleGreaser]

The post vomit.

I can actually talk about it now since the game is over.

Fro99er was scum in Delicious Mafia 2 which ended very recently and his play here does not resemble his play there in the slightest.

also if that make s Fro99er town.

Can you show me the game where scum Sakura played like D1 here?

[AxleGreaser]

The post vomit.

I can actually talk about it now since the game is over.

Fro99er was scum in Delicious Mafia 2 which ended very recently and his play here does not resemble his play there in the slightest.

also if that make s Fro99er town.

Can you show me the game where scum Sakura played like D1 here?

Im tooo bleary to be sure but this one looks different
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... ct[]=21374

[AxleGreaser]

I highly doubt a scum Echo softclaims mason. That's too big of a risk and if ika hadn't said anything and Echo didn't end up dead the next night, he would be in deep shit.

No he wouldn't, because then he votes Ika, or does other stuff to up the tension until ika spits the dummy and claims.

[AxleGreaser]

@Spiffeh @Thread

reasons you should not have town read on Echo echo

As mentioned I am going VLA.
Even if we no lynch there is no guarantee scum would shoot Sakura. (once and then once again)(assuming the BP is legit)
There is stuff I need to put in the thread. ordinarily Id wait and see how stuff plays out today, but with Echo VLA, I cant play this how I want to.

I would suggest what is in the spoilers may not yet be relevant. But if I die.... then yeah it is. If this day plays out in the some of the ways it might, then yeah it is.
meanwhile i am writing it down while i have some time. (I also have to get ready to go away)

Spoiler: Is Echo Echo the alt of a competent mafia player

TLDR: YEP

or just comptetent without caring about choosing between alt or visiting player from another site.
These posts say yes

VOTE: Aeronaut

So you're saying a town player should have lurked then? Is that what you're saying?

You're trying to paint me as scum without ascertaining the motivations. That's scummy.

Technically, it's called mudslinging. I'm accusing you of doing so.

The above is scum hunting technique i have seen used exclusively by players who are regarded as at least "not bad"

This is damn fine push.

This needs to go.

VOTE: Axle.



Looking in his posts, they lack content. All of it is filler and feel awkward in the sense that they state facts but never provide their own opinion on the game. He has no townreads or scumreads, and to put it bluntly, is just coasting.

I understand why Frogger townread him off Post 8, but it appears to be something playstyle-dependednt and can be easily faked as scum. Frogger mistakenly townread him for a null action because he saw Axle perform it a couple of times before. He has since revised this read.

Ostensibly, he has not provided his thoughts on the game, or on any players, or any reasonable votes that a town player would have made early game. The best he has provided theory discussion that is unfortunately not very correct.

Its BS. It wont fly. It is place to park his vote.
AND
I think it would express a legit concern. My play yup to there had been "odd" (for reasons)

TLDR 418 Is not altogether fluff. And it does reflect my read of how Echo echo evaluates his own skill level and experience and the stature with which he would expect to be seen if he claimed who he was.

Are his two VCAs bollocks

Spoiler: yep

Also see my previous criticism of them

2808 raw data conclusion 2809 bad explanation 2820
This bit for instance is awful

Look at bearbert's vote on the flubber wagon. It is at vote 7 out of 8. Looks pretty safe and scummy right. I think so too.

Not once Bear flips town, this wagon and votes on it do not even figure in his next analysis.

new VCA raw data 3314 revised VCA 3321
That wagon now has no importance at all.
It is not that the wagon is inconsistent with his final conclusion, but this time it plays no part in the analysis.

That the analysis is BS, was clear to me from the start. What echo echo had if he is town is other reasons for having the reads that his VCA gives as their answer, and then he gets them.
The most the VCA does is not contradict his reads.
Which is kind of fair enough ,as thats what VCA is good for, validating and idiot checking your reads.

My problem is it feels like way to lynch people with clean hands, when echo echo doesnt also say they are his reads. WHile not on the same level as when noobs do it, that can be seen as retreating into the safety of a mechanistic approach to making reads and choosing which wagon to drive.

Echo possibly distancing from the Davsto flip.

I'm still testing my VCA, so for science, I'm going to leave my vote on you.

If you're town, sorry.

Yeah but Echo echo is in the town block because.....

He did not really DRIVE the tn wagon.

Spoiler: TN posts

Shazam 1526 noted the echo echo post was odd.
He does quote 1081 where tn expressed strong opinions about mario being scum BUT echo echo di not point out that was incongruous with Tn later jumping off the wagon 1147.
It was spiffeh in 1485 that made the actual observation of how bad that was and why.

and then basically no more pushing of the tn wagon
1649 is not exactly driving the lynch home

Its true that even drawing as much attention as 1483 did, is a risk to do to a scum buddy.

Spoiler: Echos, Views on Aero

VOTE: TN

Any objections to an Areo shot?

I object. Please shoot Davesto.

Spoiler: Echo actually driving a flubber wagon

1838 one might even suggest he was trying to impose himself and his will on the thread (with a big picture)
inviting more votes.

VOTE: Flubbernugget

Follow me!

1857 1862 1866 1925

Spoiler: Echo actually driving a pisskop/bearbert wagon

2188 one might even suggest he was trying to impose himself and his will on the thread (with a big picture)
2189

2809 and onwards lots more serious pushing of Pisskop/Bear Slot.

Conclusion: Whatever town Cred EchoEcho had for making posts that might be unwise as scum (see spoiler about TN above)

is more than compensated for by driving two town wagons quite hard, and advocating for the nk off scum(Aero) and onto town(Davsto).

NOTE: TOWN fuckup too.

THAT ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ is not a case.

It is what is, and what Echo echo status as a member of the town block no longer is.

Echo echo has been leveraging his small role in the lynch of TN all game.
He used it to actually drive several mislynches.

He distanced himself from his pushes

According to VCA, Bearbert D is most likely to be scum. Let's go.

I'm still testing my VCA, so for science, I'm going to leave my vote on you.

If you're town, sorry.

and then having worn out the welcome on his VCA wants to ride another one.

God damn it ika, my voting you was part of the gambit. Thank you for trusting me though. You shouldn't have outed yourself. I guess we should communicate better.


It appears that my VCA method fucking sucks. That's unfortunate.

I trust DGB's VCA though.

It also does not seem reasonable to me that voting ika was meant to somehow be part of the gambit and that Ika should have gone along with it.
It looked like an attempt to get the mason outed. I was little worried it was so scum wouldnt have to explain why Sakura didnt die and how they instead chose to guess right who was the mason out of ika and echo.

It could also have been as they didnt want ika alive and did want Sakura. It is in my view easier to guess what Sakura wants, and sakura is better to have alive to day as Ika would have been mod confirmed unshakeable basis that town might rally around.

Whichever the reason getting mason:ika outed was a pro scum thing to achieve.

[AxleGreaser]

I feel like the evidence against you is more damning.

Sigh...
I'm done explaining myself.

I fucked up, this is going to be a town loss because people can't see beyond "oh hey she sheeped her guilty", i already explained myself, i wasnt paying attention to where the votes were and was annoyed that ppl didnt want to lynch fire.

Sorry i let you all down.

So people I wrote 3420

and YES it identifies somethign odd Sakura did.

Having a guilty track, on fire, Sakura let up near the start of the day.
Then late in the day having tried to get fire lynched every other way all day, like towny should.

Eventually Sakura claimed a track.

and yes some stuff doesnt line up, with all a towny could have done. As sakura had not put together that the track was a hard counter to a town BP claim.

NOTE SCUM do in fact think about heir fake claims.
So
no matter whether you scumread or town read sakura, you have toa ccept the fact that Sakura never thought about nor made anything of that the track hard countered the fire BP claim.

I would like people to actually explain their sakura scum read.

I have explained what I saw when I looked at meta. ScumSakura in another game did not play anywhere near as well as Sakura is claimed to have played in this game.

People reject my frogger read, because he was flapping about. Getting drunk is not that hard to do. The other scum had weird interactions with him D1.

I would like people to actually explain their sakura scum read.
and why sakura meta doesn't matter but Fro99er meta does.

[AxleGreaser]

I'm sorry if I'm wrong Sakura but I think there's too much stacked against you.

@Axle

There's also the setup speculation argument which is like 100x less reliable but is still there. I don't see the town having a roleblocker AND a BPV. What exactly would a 1-shot roleblock do? Sure, it would block a kill, which is a confirmed guilty unless scum idles. Then scum waste their kill again trying to kill her because she is basically conf town after outing herself. Then she gets another guilty by tracking someone. Her role alone would be capable of stopping two night kills and getting two guilties, which seems WAY too overpowered with a scumteam of four when we already have a gunsmith and a two-shot vig. Also three confirmed towns because of the masons. It doesn't make sense given the setup. She should be lynched today.

Please respond to this.

The questions looked rhetorical

Sakura role of 1 shot track + 1 shot Role block + BP. Has a theme, the role has survivability, which means they can delay using the tracks and use them more to snip. This adds a small amount of extra investigative power and rewards skillfull checks, as guessing not only who is scum but who will do the action is hard.
and without the BP thetrendency to fire them off D1&D2 would make them very ineffective.

What would 1 shot role block do?
Later in the game when the odds are better, it lets you hunt for the kill. There is the risk of flase psoitve if they snipe you the same day you RB someone, but roles having false positives is not unusual. Mods think its character building for townies to have to second guess their red checks.

In terms of balance I thought 5 scum was plausible, so by definition 4 scum seems underpowered to me. HOWEVER pretty much no one bought into 5 scum for sec. So the current setup with the JOAT does not scream imbalanaced or the 5 man team would have looked more plausible.

So I am not seeing that other people claim WAY over powered, when people seemed to think 5 man scum team was not required with the JOAT.

Your speculation about worst case JOAT actions, is a bit extreme as tracks are hard to get off and hit with. SO worrying about a track and an RB both hotting? If town do stuff like that they deserve an easy win, that is like worrying about what if the vig only hits scum.

[AxleGreaser]

@Fro99er

Spoiler: ooc

(yeah hes not in the game) (I may be as sorry as fuck about what I might be about to do.) Not actually sure where I am going with this and subsequent posts.

@Thread

read through D1 again, Imagine that you are the scum team (

EchoEcho Tn Aero/Fire

) +

d

r

un

k

fro

99e

r.

:

#

)

up to 165 is also worth the read, but after that

This post was interesting

actually, you know what. I have no reason to town read tn. Just felt like it in heat of the moment.

VOTE: tn5421[/v]

What the

fuck

?

Well Aero/fire has flipped scum, so we know he knew Fro99ers alignment, but why never make anything out of it?

If I had to asses the thread the existing scum in the thread are in little bit of trouble, the thread and Fro99er in particular is out of control.
Echo (conveniently) turns up and tries to go back to RQS?

Are 5 day deadlines generally more helpful for scum or for town? Discuss.

Echo make this push which is standard way to push people BUT never follows through.

VOTE: Aeronaut

So you're saying a town player should have lurked then? Is that what you're saying?

You're trying to paint me as scum without ascertaining the motivations. That's scummy.

Technically, it's called mudslinging. I'm accusing you of doing so.

Fro99er scum reads and votes Echo echo...

One thing of note is that Frogger is posting at higher volume than usual.

A...this is BULLSHIT I'll give you TONS AND TONS of links

B...why do you have meta on me??? Where have you played with me before???

VOTE: echo

but despite Fro99er being 'drunk' and volatile
he takes this rather well.

Frogger, I'm townreading you.

Shut the fuck up.

I also didnt like this.
It almost felt like it(the pissing off) might have been an intentional play into his own self aware meta.

VOTE: tn5421

I like this more.

I'm done pissing off everyone. Echo is right. I need to stop.

One of the things Echo Echo achieved early game
I described quite some time ago. (I described it for this reason BTW) (If Echo echo was scum I posited he would drive over the thread like bulldozer)

249
Does not fit your buddying theory.

Drive over the thread like bulldozer seems a more apt description

and what better way to do that than by making short noisy pushes on your buddies who you know wont overreact, or hold a grudge, or lingering doubts.

[AxleGreaser]

VOTE: Echo echo

[AxleGreaser]

Then scum waste their kill again trying to kill her because she is basically conf town after outing herself.

As you are scum reading the role when it outed itself with a check that lynched scum, you cannot possibly be seriously claiming "she is basically conf town after outing herself."

The role if it had been claimed with non informative checks and role blocks, would look quite sus and NOTHING like confirmed town. The JOAT did not add another confirmed town role to the setup.

it is mistake to think scum waste a kill when they hit and BP. Typically all that does is move the game from LYLO to MYLO.

In this case it is a very interesting part of the setup.


IF (but only if) scum make a doctor save, then town loses a lynch to eventually lynch that guy they could have shot. (hence we are at MYLO)

Spoiler: Why thats interesting from mods perpsective

If scum are good enough to make save. Kinda not that hard to guess which scum might get vig shot and if your scum team has multiple people on the vig shot block bo hoo to you. (that your own damn fault)
Anyway that means, what town has i the added ability to take out unreadables (& people who dont actually play). That makes for 'better game".
But we are not done. Even though there are so many mod confirmed townies. If amoungst all that competition to get killed the JOAT can also play towny enough to eventually get shot, then they can earn the mislynch back.
The preponderance of mod confirmable townies, and their tendency to get outed. Means the JOST is likely to survibe long ebnough to snipe with with their track and RB. HOWEVER problem is they dont know that. So giving the JOAT passive BP synergises quite well with role that is best holding its shots for few days.
The Vig tends to rule the game early with the extra kills, and the JOAT comes into their own late game.
Dont know what powers cum,have or exactly where balanced is,.

But a scum Doc and scum role cop, seem useful to scum. (docs more or

less

confirmed. )

scum actually cant SHOOT Sakura at the moment as a zero nk night WILL buy us an extra lynch.

OMG you might think that makes Sakura scummy....

REMEMBER THIS POST

Wait a second, this is MyLo, can anyone tell me why aren't we voting for No Lynch? the worst that can happen is that scum pops my BP and we end up in the same situation again.

That was towny thing to do back then.
It seems unlikely for scum Sakura to suggest that give the logic above.

[AxleGreaser]

AT least

one of (Echo Shazam Sakura is scum)

votecount 7.2

Sakura Hana (2) - Echo Echo, Shazam

Shazam (1) - Sakura Hana

Not voting (3) - AxleGreaser, Spiffeh, DrippingGoofball

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Deadline is October 3, 10:00 GMT-7 or in (expired on 2015-10-03 10:00:00).

Clearly i am betting it is echo echo.

VOTE: Echo echo

Also I am going to play little Cluedo.

I accuse Echo echo of murdering Bearbert and Davsto with a fake VCA.

I claim the VCA is not science and is not something Echo Echo actually believes.

The Fro99er read is fabricated. Its is either fabricated on a scumbuddy under lots of pressure from me.
or its faked on towny he wants to take to end game, as either the patsy or the puppet.

Spoiler: distinction to my claims about DGB VCA

BTW that is similar but different the DGB VCA.

DGB has a wiki page and long history of using the scum puter. (note he doesnt always use it so as scum he can use it when it gives the answers he wants.)

He said he was lazy this game. Indeed I claim he was scum and lazy because he knew what answers he wanted so anything that gave the right answers and looked techy, complex and blingy enough would do.

The shortcuts he took were BAD. (Fromt he wiki:

the base assumption is that any significant wagon has some, but not all, of the scum on it, and that the scum are at least

randomly distributed

.

) It then also embedded int he math formulas that he DID not use.

When I pointed them out to a person claimed to be town and lazy.
HE did NOT go whoops and correct them.

instead he dodged

.
He claimed the wagons have more than average scum ,when that is exactly NOT what his scumputer is based on.
Worse. It was only one wagon he had to many scum on due to failing to follow his own methodology. Thus biasing the results.
Why lie?

Now i write computer code and eat algorithms like that one(but actually complex) for breakfast and have done it for living.
So I can see it is obvious bollocks.
The towny alternative is DGB is signficantly less competent than I think he is or he is scum making it up and hoping no one will notice.

The distinction about that and the Echo echo read
As echo echo algorithm keeps changing, from one VCA to the next, and hes is just waving around doing it for science. What I smell is total fakery of the VCA or any true interest or belief in it.
If Echo echo flips town, I will continue to believe he faked the VCA. I will probably believe that even if he continues with the alt and makes it the alts meta. At best
As scum it is convenient way to distance yourself from the blame.
As town its an easy way to scum read people without giving away your tells.
I believe Echo echo is scum and faked his VCA.

[AxleGreaser]

I have explained what I saw when I looked at meta. ScumSakura in another game did not play anywhere near as well as Sakura is claimed to have played in this game.

People reject my frogger read, because he was flapping about. Getting drunk is not that hard to do. The other scum had weird interactions with him D1.

The weird interactions are described in 3591

but I have realised I did not list what differences I saw.
Non broken ISO of that Sakura Scum game

ISO of this game

In the other game scum Sakura Waffles fro 6 posts.

In this game Sakura is asking questions and progressing the game basically all the time in every post.
When the game was getting bogged Sakura jumped on the IaI wagon to make stuff happen, at that time there was no real case, it could go badly for anyone that did that, it is not low risk play (not highly risky but not safe) (so when the play around there isnt smelly of scum making bad push then doing that is towny> (See Frog voting Tn, with a hey whatever attitude, for counter example, of stuff that could look towny but if you do it wrong looks scummy))

basically there is much less focused inquiry. 114 119
166 States where Skauras head is up to with the read.(transparent)

I liked 269 a lot. 269 and yes that observation that those interactions were weird still irks me and is part of my current read.

Indeed just lots of the ISO from this game i like and is quite unlike that scum game.

[AxleGreaser]

I'm always so indecisive.

You're not gonna get me to lynch Fro99er today. Probably not gonna get me to lynch Echo today.

You think Shazam is town?

Seems we are at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5PgAKzmWmuk

with me you and the scum....
I claim

ugly

.

moving right along.

Yeah, I dont like the popping in and out, that smells bad and possibly expedience driven.

I am hard pressed to know how I scum read him so hard except that i was looking for a group of three playing out a game where MYLO was yesterday
That meant them (Frog Davsto Shazam) driving for the mislynch on Bearbert made sense.
But I dislike two of them doing that, when its further to victory. But you dont believe in Frog scum.

When i reread, the game fresh I refound my shazam town read.
I will go through it now, but suspend my reads on Frog or Echo while i do as best i can.
Its shortish I might even do them all or lots of the early ones.

57 pushed you. The question give you adequate space to look towny. They are genuine inquiries.
115 is him finding out about the confusion over who b&c were addressed to.
431 is him pinging off stuff that made me intially concerned about Fro99er. That response from Fro99er seemed disproportionate but it took me while to confirm to myself he was not actually still wound up over our previous game and hence jumping at shadows when reading me.

448 Also looks like town failing to grasp how much what they knew their words meant is not necessarily what other people think their words mean or are about.
595 reads like more disagreement and misunderstanding and i dont discern a scum motive.

Down to 681 I see him explaining his stance on Fro99er. I disagree and think that Fro99er regardless of alignment would know hos case was crap and exaggerated. I read then, and even more strongly later, that all the caps lock stuff from 329 was performance art to exaggerate point.
he was either town fishing for someone to follow derpy wagon, or wanting to park somewhere or scum.
it is too inconsistent with him thinking back here he has handle on how to read me, where does the ONMG paranoia come from?

You don't read axle based off his opening post. You read axle based off his reactions to everyone else. He's got a pretty clear scumhunting/non-scumhunting meta, IMO.

That is about the end of D1. When the game was there I felt pretty town about Shazam. Rereading it knowing some flips I reach the same or better as conclusion.
As the game went on I had POE'd too many people and thats when i went back to check Frogger netter as time went on Shazam got swept up in that too.

I would struggle now to find how I decided Shazam was in my scum pool.
I think at least in part i got sucked in by the drug of VCA.

[AxleGreaser]

I'm sorry if I'm wrong Sakura but I think there's too much stacked against you.

@Axle

There's also the setup speculation argument which is like 100x less reliable but is still there. I don't see the town having a roleblocker AND a BPV. What exactly would a 1-shot roleblock do? Sure, it would block a kill, which is a confirmed guilty unless scum idles. Then scum waste their kill again trying to kill her because she is basically conf town after outing herself. Then she gets another guilty by tracking someone. Her role alone would be capable of stopping two night kills and getting two guilties, which seems WAY too overpowered with a scumteam of four when we already have a gunsmith and a two-shot vig. Also three confirmed towns because of the masons. It doesn't make sense given the setup. She should be lynched today.

Please respond to this.

The questions looked rhetorical

Sakura role of 1 shot track + 1 shot Role block + BP. Has a theme, the role has survivability, which means they can delay using the tracks and use them more to snip. This adds a small amount of extra investigative power and rewards skillfull checks, as guessing not only who is scum but who will do the action is hard.
and without the BP thetrendency to fire them off D1&D2 would make them very ineffective.

What would 1 shot role block do?
Later in the game when the odds are better, it lets you hunt for the kill. There is the risk of flase psoitve if they snipe you the same day you RB someone, but roles having false positives is not unusual. Mods think its character building for townies to have to second guess their red checks.

In terms of balance I thought 5 scum was plausible, so by definition 4 scum seems underpowered to me. HOWEVER pretty much no one bought into 5 scum for sec. So the current setup with the JOAT does not scream imbalanaced or the 5 man team would have looked more plausible.

So I am not seeing that other people claim WAY over powered, when people seemed to think 5 man scum team was not required with the JOAT.

Your speculation about worst case JOAT actions, is a bit extreme as tracks are hard to get off and hit with. SO worrying about a track and an RB both hotting? If town do stuff like that they deserve an easy win, that is like worrying about what if the vig only hits scum.

OK, I'll bite because I don't completely understand. You're saying 4 scum seems underpowered to you, but you find a JOAT, 3 Masons, a Vig, a Flower Vendor, and a Gunsmith on the other side even possibly balanced? I like how you're voting and would vote with you if it came to it, but I think you're wrong on Sakura at this point. I still don't see her "mistake" as coming from town, and I don't know how Spiffeh can be confused because he convinced me of this and I'm not confused.

Yeah I dont find the Joat adds much power.
It is role that is hard to claim convincingly.

As there was not a 5 man scum team. my idea of balanced has been definitively shown to be at variance with the balance teams.
Yes coming back to a 4 man scum team did raise red flags for me about the roles.
To be consistent with my earlier estimation of balance, it would be some of the flipped roles that couldn't be in the game.

Once I accept i am wrong enough about what is considered balanced, how much more unlikely is it that they also considered adding the JOAT as well to be balanced?

I am not keen on winning or losing the game based on anything I think about setup.
Playing as if there could be 5 scum was precautionary.

This part is me working out what other opinions of balance must be.

In terms of balance I thought 5 scum was plausible, so by definition 4 scum seems underpowered to me. HOWEVER pretty much no one bought into 5 scum for sec. So the current setup with the JOAT does not scream imbalanced or the 5 man team would have looked more plausible.

So I also have other peoples estimates of what is balanced.

TLDR: Is my head a confused mess about balance issues. You betcha.

[AxleGreaser]

I think you're wrong on Sakura at this point. I still don't see her "mistake" as coming from town, and I don't know how Spiffeh can be confused because he convinced me of this and I'm not confused.

explain why it would come from scum.

In my actual mafia playing experience I have learned to trust no one thing(tell/mistake/fuckup). Town make horrendous stuff ups. Especially with their roles.

Please explain what the whole scum plan was during that day.

Sakura had been legit trying to lynch/bus Fire without claiming anything for a while.
IIRC correctly there was enough suspicion stated the day before to explain the track.


Why late in the day, did scum decide nope we really need to bus now. They could have left it a day, and let some potential mislynch happen and then bus tomorrow.
What would have changed the plan from Sakura merely writing a case and busing to fake claiming?

I flat out cant put Sakura as scum UNLESS echo is the partner.

and i cant do that because. How were scum planning on explaining Sakura not getting shot if the other mason wasn't found AND outed.

That for me can make sense, if the partner is Echo but not otherwise.

Thus I don't want to lynch Sakura if Echo is alive for a start off. And then there is my actual read of her play.

[AxleGreaser]

You have the ability to estimate what is balanced, as does everyone else. Noticing you were wrong on your first guess should not cause you to abandon all reason and say "well the setup could look like anything now".

But do also notice that the difference between adding a JOAT and NOT is not large. AND its only the differnce that changes how unlikely it is from my perspective.

Also Oh goody I am bad. Do you actually argue that the setupo should have had 5 scum and it looked inbalanced to have 4?

or do you think i was wrong.

[AxleGreaser]

Hmm... sorry Axle i don't see DGB scum at all,

I am voting echo today.

[AxleGreaser]

I tried to get myself nightkilled yesterday by fakeclaiming mason so that we would have an easier day today in the event the Davsto lynch went south, which I feared. Unfortunately, I didn't communicate well enough with ika, and he got the wrong idea. He claimed and died.

I don't understand. You counterclaimed Mason to the real Mason?

Correct.

How would that even work, though?

and Echo having claimed mason, and Ika not counter claimed then also got off the Davsto (3323) wagon and naked voted Ika 3346

[AxleGreaser]

I also have not seen any explanation of how Echo voting ika adds in anyway to the mason thing, but do see how it is provocative.

Ika by playing along with had already jeopardised his mason claim enough, that when he did CC, sakura voted him 3365 for while.

[AxleGreaser]

I still don't see a world in which scum Echo claims mason.

I dont see how he claims mason as town and then votes the mason.

As scum whats thew problem?

(Echo + not sakura)
If Ika counter claims, all is good Echo says he was covering for him.

If Ika doesnt counter claim then tonight scum kill Sakura last night
and today at Mylo Echoecho is the un cc'd mason.

and he lynches the real one....

(Echo + Sakura)
Echo keeps pushing until ika counter claims then kills him?

Apart from not wanting to lynch sakura due to my read of the game this one is harder to swallow.
but becoming an un cc'd mason at MYLO is bad how?

Hell if he wants he can even unclaim it, and then obviously scum saw through the ruse
or were worried it was ruse so they shot the known power role.

[AxleGreaser]

More or less gut, i mean, both of them are Blindly Sheeping someone's reasons for voting me, while those others aren't even voting me and are actually analysing stuff, to me it looks like i was a designated scum mislynch or something (which would explain they never shooting me).

Assuming they think what ever other power you had would not be worth shooting you over. The masons have been real close to 100% town due to normal guidelines.
So they were better shots. Sakura was a likely shot last night if they didn't at the time know who the mason was.

[AxleGreaser]

I still don't see a world in which scum Echo claims mason.

No? That would be my first thought, so the circumstances must have been extenuating?

I am failing to see anyone actually explain what is the risk or problem with scum doing that.

ACTUALLY claim mason is problem. Waffle about being mason then go "

Oh no. I was just covering for the mason

" is not much of a problem.

If by extenuating, you mean if your partner Sakura is the obv shot, then if the whole process was to get the mason to CC. But that feels weird paranoid and too much.

I also don't like how convoluted the day was when Sakura claimed the track.
Sakura was bussing with a case on Fire. (Sala starts up having shot fire) Fire claims BP. Echo chainsaws by driving on bearbert for the lolsy(?) commuter thing. Eventually having dismantled the wagon, they rebuild it based on a fake red check?
Now thats ^^^^ a tangled web. and not very believable.

[AxleGreaser]

not read it properly yet. I am also screwed for time, but I should get there in next little while.

[AxleGreaser]

(this part is from memory sorry if the details are little off)
First problem with your read of this is you are on the inside of the argument.
This is an extension of the thing with the a,b,c, where you got the wrong idea what the a,b,c referred to and he claimed you didnt recognize your own line of thinking.
The not recognizing your own thinking is a problem

when

it happens, (because making up their thinking

can

have less personal attachment to external lies they made up)
The problem that Shazam didnt get about the exchange, is that when you read his question and misapplied what he said to the other quote, he forgot that you reading his statement can think he is just messed up totally and misinterpretting you.
"Hopefully this explanation helps you understand your earlier conflict with me"
This could be appeasement, if say Shazam was scum, had made a drive on you decided oops and was trying to get out. But I didnt read that into what he was doing.
This could be town trying to defuse TvT, 431 had already town read you. I would phrase 431 differently, but you did not react badly, at points of misunderstanding like that some scum try to paint the other guy as bad, or act squirrely.

Shazam this is the post I'm mostly talking about:

This is an easy place to go into detail on why a lot of what you've said this game doesn't make sense.
1) He just now had 7 votes. How can any statement about his wagon be "too early"? Any "later" in the wagon, and he might be dead.
2) What does timing have to do with his point? His point is that he had a decent sized wagon with no real counter-wagon. Who cares when it happened?
3) Asking for examples is bad for two reasons: a) One can come up with examples for just about anything. It doesn't mean that whatever you're coming up with examples for is common. b) You ought to be able to accept something on principle. If it logically makes sense that a wagon with no counter-wagon is generally town, then that should be accepted as a fair argument with or without examples.

Hopefully this explanation helps you understand your earlier conflict with me. I don't wish to do what I just did with every post of yours that I find interesting, so I may just use the shorthand of "this doesn't make sense" or "overly emotional reaction" or some such thing as it applies.

It's so much filler shit. You're just lecturing me about stuff that doesn't matter and looks like you're trying to perpetuate our argument and try to pass that off as engaging and contributing. I have seen scum do this many times in my experience.

Weren't you still hardcore scum reading Sakura even after she claimed? Or am I imagining that?

As an aside, did anyone else notice that I was accused of having static reads by one person, and of suspiciously changing my reads too suddenly by another person within a couple pages? It's pretty clear I'm not scum, but people are trying hard to make it look that way.

So because people have different opinions about you that means they cancel out and you are automatically "obviously scum?" Instead of clarifying for me the progressions of your reads on Fro99er and myself, you try to discredit as "trying to make it look" like you're scum.

(astthers a directed question at someone else in there I am walking around that)(dodging that aspect)

Shazam, not quite sure Parse the second half of this ,(but that's me being hurried.)

(again from memory)
Shazam had a humongous flip from before to after the Bearbert lynch. It was bad, I didn't like it I didn't like his explanation and couldn't follow the thought process.
But hey I am pretty sure i now have some flips now too.
I still dont like it, but i know town can appear to do that. (each extra bad one makes it worse, it is not meaningless)

---

My plan

Lynch Echo today.
Echo can be sakura scum buddy if the convoluted day that started on bussing fire, chainsawed down the wagon, then rebuilt it happened. (weird and long)
Echo can be DGB's buddy and has been hard defending him and keeping me at bay. Why so hard? His scum buddy will have in the pT flagged the desire to replace out and stress he was under.
Echo can be Shazams buddy. Why keep Fro99er alive? Why not, its pretty god way to keep me entertained distracted and shitting up the thread.

For me ... to be continued, in bit when i have some more time.

[AxleGreaser]

TLDR:
Why is echo Scum. (with extra sauce)

see 3439 Actually read the damn thing go visit the thread where i link and reread the context for yourself.

and that left out Echo chainsawing on Piskop vs Bear the day before 2189

Oh yeah Echo didnt actually know why he unvoted bearbert when asked by Davsto I let echo answer. I wasnt at the time overly worried by echo but had lingering doubts.
Echo who had voted bear because commuter was counter to BP. 2189

Unvoted bear here 2265 which is after this post 2222 (pisskop explained the commuter thing was always a joke/sarcasm/ whatever)
Now if Echo is town that ought be the reason Echo voted and the reason (or a big part of) echo unvoted.
Echos stated reason was

My answer is: Looking at the page itself, and seeing pisskop calling Salamance stupid many times, discouraged me from voting him. Also, Davsto's hesitance to hammer pisskop looks scummy because it looked like he was fishing for towncred or maybe pisskop would flip town so he was afraid to hammer. So, I unvoted pisskop and voted Davsto

Apparently Echo seems to have forgotten why he voted bear and that the reason went away.
Note: he did forget that whether he is town or scum, but I think scum forgetting the stuff they never really believed is more plausible.

[AxleGreaser]

shitting up the thread.

Hey that's not very nice, I am not "shitting up the thread."

I presume your trying to be funny?

Echo can be Shazams buddy. Why keep Fro99er alive? Why not, its pretty god way to keep me entertained distracted and shitting up the thread.

That sentence talked about (If Fro99er was town) Echo could be leaving me chewing on Fro99ers leg. And as Fro99ers post count and mine (are quite large), if that was Echo playing the TvT like that, then its scummy objective was to shit up the thread (by proxy).

The point is Hard defending Fro99er is plausible for scum echo irrespective of Froggers alignment.

[AxleGreaser]

shitting up the thread.

Hey that's not very nice, I am not "shitting up the thread."

I thinik he's referring back to when your slot was Frogger.

yeah i was AND

Also even if it had been DGB in that slot all game, If scum successfully stalls me, while i am chewing on anyones leg I post enough on my own for that to be a pro scum thing to do.

[AxleGreaser]

as mentioned I am going VLA today.
I am voting Echo echo.

Echo echo is voting Sakura. DGB a slot I scum read drove for Sakura with his puter. (and I didnt like how he did that mechanically).

So basically I am not voting Sakura before I leave. I will eat a no lynch in preference to that. (the odds on a no lynch ending the game are IMO really quite very low)

If I get time, I will post some more about what i specifically dont like about how DGb did his scum puter.

Doing that will be hard as the knowledge gap between what i know and did for living and everyone else is largish. So if I get around to writing please try extra hard to understand what i say.
leaving in 2hrs 45 /packing and stuff to still to go. yikes.

[AxleGreaser]

Raw rank order at the moment would be Echo + DGB > Shazam > Sakura > Spiffeh.

pedit: Sry. about her vs his. Most puter nerd types that i know are his.

[AxleGreaser]

If I get time, I will post some more about what i specifically dont like about how DGb did his scum puter.

Instead of that, can you humor me, and make your own supergenius scumputer? Make sure to color me town-blue, otherwise I won't believe it.

#1 Dont have time, but yeah just colour in each of the paris Echo + the others and make your own.

#2 I dont claim to be a super genius. Although I am the kind person that finds IQ tests fun as some of the question are interesting.
But as you opened this can. I have been paid money by other people to do work not entirely unlike making a scum puter.
(but for real world tasks) So some people thought I had enough skillz to pay for them. but that is enitrely unprovable.

So, all we got, is what we posted.

You posted your scum puter algorithms results, i identified flaws in your work.

[AxleGreaser]

sry there are prolly his 's in this. Dont have time to fix them.

Also cant remember how clearly I speeled this out or whether this will be clearer.

Spoiler: read if I die

Why only if I die.
If i am dead you can take my assertions (about math and what is for instance fundamental) as being based on actual experience and background knowledge.
I in my expert opinion am qualified to say what is

fundamental

.

Whats wrong with DGBs scum puter that is IMO a bit alignment indicative about DGB.

DGB did the scum putering wrong. (did not use own algorithm) (this bit alone is not all that alignment indicative... BTW)

The difference was important. One of the steps is to compute how many scum you expect in the unflipped players.
Its kind of

fundamental

to the concept of the scum puter to do that. DGB didnt.

DGB says DGB was feeling lazy or words to that effect and cut corners, Ok. so yeah kinda.

BUT

When i initially asked DGB about, about counting a wagon that already had one flipped scum on it and expecting another.
Which is an obvious ooops I fucked up kind of error. DGB instead claimed that "no wagons are expected to have a bit more than average amount of scum."
That is a flat out made up answer. (it is incongruous with the documented algorithm on the wiki) << this bit is the problem.

other larger wagons in her analysis could be expected to perhaps have 2 scum, but she counted them as if they were one.
and then one wagon expected to have none so people on that wagon SHOULD get town points not scum ones.. were given scum points.

I am fairly sure DGB did not do that analysis to work out who would be scum, but knew what the answer was before they started.
(or at worst wet finger guessed it by visual inspection.)
Again, hey i can in fact visually inspect the wagon and tell you what i reckon is likely. Sakua votes a lot, the scum puter will scum read her no matter the alignment.
but
the bit i just cant really put in town DGB, is

When i initially asked DGB about, about counting a wagon that already had one flipped scum on it and expecting another.
Which is an obvious ooops I fucked up kind of error. DGB instead claimed that "no wagons are expected to have a bit more than average amount of scum."
That is a flat out made up answer.

Surely according to your assumptions once you find enough scum on a wagon then any unflipped people look townier not scummier.

There tends to be more scum on wagons than expected by chance.

This in now way deals with the problem of failing to subtract the number of flipped scum from the expected number left on the wagon.
Fudging it and using larger wagons with an expectaion >1 as if they are all 1 is meh. Including the one that is now expected to have zero scum is double meh.


How strong is that?

Not all that strong, I like my frogger points that many people reject more. BUT it is clean read on new slot, and i know its not from being tunneled. That one is pretty much straight out of the numerical rational side of my brain.

Whats the town explanation. DGb always knew the computaion ass wrong but thought I didnt actually know what I was talking about so they just blew me off.
My advice. betting axle doesnt know stuff is dumb.

[AxleGreaser]

You posted your scum puter algorithms results, i identified flaws in your work.

Then impress me, fix it and find scum. If you find that I am scum that means your theory failed. That's the litmus test.

either that or scumputering is not as strong a predictor as you claim it is.

Google "weak leaner", "Boosting", for theoretical treatment of the subject matter.
I need to go.

[AxleGreaser]

as is you continuing to scum read Shiro....

FFS what is that fake town tell or sumthing.

[AxleGreaser]

bye now.
See you all tomorrow or the after life.

[AxleGreaser]

Well as bad as he is... it pains me to say, he's bloody well near conftown then.

so I guess thats me dead then

[AxleGreaser]

The Town team of Bearbert D, Ricastle, Vedith, BananaCucho, AxleGreaser, Spiffeh, ika, I am Innocent, Flubbernugget, DrippingGoofball, Slandaar, Shiro, MarioManiac4, Echo Echo, and Davsto has won the game!

first reaction i am not sure we deserved that one.

Well played scum team.

[AxleGreaser]

You know, if you killed Spiffeh instead of Axle, you would've won? Axle couldn't stop tunneling my ass and would easily sway DGB in your favor.

You, like those that erred before you, would be plenty damn surprised what i could do.
The day before it happened I expect you'd have been claiming there was no way, I could want someone lynched ahead of Fro99ers slot.
and I wanted you lynched ahead of theFro9ers slot to find out ? ..... well perhaps it was to see if I could read if DGB resisted or legit townied it (either for or against)? As I stated at the day start, i was out of time for working stuff out I was unsure of, so I drove for my best lynches.

There also was a reason I rowed towards being the NK. 3700

... meh.
What your alt thinks your problem not mine.

[AxleGreaser]

Also tunneled on Echo echo? WTF?
I changed to lynching you based on the IKA vote. and faulty POE. So I gave that a great big shove. BUT always planned to back out of that if I had been able to town read your response. Your retreat into blame it on the VCA, read wrong.
With me leaving half way through the day, and no lynch not being an awful choice. A clear seemingly unequivocal position seemed like the best thing i could leave the thread.

[AxleGreaser]

All right, sorry about that. I'll keep that in mind for next time.

The fundamental problem with the vote is

As scum if you want to you can pretend to try and take the bullet.
Shoot someone else.
Wifom that scum never believed you. (as you hadn't really categorically claimed.)
As scum, the next day having voted ika you could well be thinking you stand reasonable chance of getting Ika lynch as a fake counter claim
Well it would be an option you had kept open. You get to decide the next day, whether to press the claim or take the cred.

Every bit it adds to your fake claim, makes it a risk that Ika as town cant afford to take. Well to take it he has to be the game on his town read of you.

In terms of making the play go down the most critical part will not be what you did or did not do, but how much Ika knew you were town.
and the risk is you damage your own credibility and out the mason.

[AxleGreaser]

he didnt do it intentionaly though, axx he was fine and if people listened to me (and they didnt) echo would of been fine but people are to ego headed to listen to confirmed towns when they know what they are tlaking about when it omes to taking a bullet by fakeclaiming

I listen to confirmed towns, trouble is they have conflicting opinions and dont always explain everything. One of the confirmed town I listen to is me as I have seen my own PM. You presented your reasoning at 3359 but were still arguing your alignment with Sakura. I never got to test my problem with his claim+vote, against your reasoning. Which is, yes it is suicidal to challenge a mason, when there is time to lynch both. It is not suicidal to pretend to try to draw bullet and fail... (while trying out if people will buy your fake claim for the the one mislynch that was still required to win.) So I never got to find out what confirmed town Ika thought about that because another town hammered the day on me. As from my point of view that is playing against me and my win con, there is some sense in which I kinda don't care what happens in a game after that, in the sense that it is no longer on me.
That i then went on to try and make play that would cause alignment indicative stuff to happen the next day, was for me above and beyond. But nah, Axle was just, tunneled and if i wasn't tunneled on one person then anytime I changed my mind I was just as permanently tunneled on someone else.

[AxleGreaser]

he didnt do it intentionaly though,

He voted you accidentally?

[AxleGreaser]

I don't have a need to say things and don't think I have much constructive stuff to say.

constructive or not these seemingly should be linked to again.
http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?tit ... ng_as_Town http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=59109
and i will add just dont self vote


@pieguyn

Spoiler: ta for the game

I like playing in well moderated games. As that means there is at least one person posting regularly in the thread and keeping stuff in perspective, and just getting the job done, and it reminds me that other people are putting in effort thus no matter what i feel, the game deserves my ongoing best efforts. As the Mod is clearly trying, so I should too. Me doing less is being slack. That gets me through the hard bits with my eye on the game.

So ta.

@Shiro. oops sorry.

Spoiler: I misplayed == my bad.

When you sent me the flower I played badly. Sorry, it may have contributed to getting you killed early, and reduced your effectiveness in the game. As I said that was my bad, what I did is on me.
If you don't understand how i think that don't worry, a PM explaining that is on my to do list.

@pieguyn

Spoiler: an observation

These are actually questions i am asking myself. I think they might be some of the right questions.
Learning is a tricky thing, the most critical part in guiding your own learning is asking the right questions.

I was recently on VLA and watched some humans act in leadership roles. What they did was subtle, and just tickled things along, but they did well. And i was thinking about that, and I was thinking about when I read the dead thread.
It occurs to me, that I have learned more by reading or talking in dead threads that were unspoiled, as once retrospective wisdom in hindsight analysis kicks in most else turns to mush.
So the question I am asking myself, is if I modded a game, would it have spoiled or unspoiled dead thread. I am currently thinking I would always go with and unspoiled one, as I think that would work best towards what i would consider my mod wincon. But as i said elsewhere horses for courses, without differences of opinions we would not have horse races.
(aka YMMV, and perhaps it even should)