NY 183 - Apocalypse Mafia

[davesaz]

VOTE: Grib

Before me, and strange entry post.

[davesaz]

dave, are you the SK again?

Sadly, no. I've been hoping for a game where I could test some adjustments to my approach, but I keep coming up town.

[davesaz]

Nero, if you're town please make it more obvious this game.

[davesaz]

Oh no, the dreaded RQS.

1. Capo IV. Definitely not a normal game from this site's point of view, but loads of fun. I was the mafia-aligned lawyer, in a MB game with 5 mafia teams (!!!) and IIRC over 100 players (!!!). Maybe I'll remember to link some offsite games in my wiki entry.
2. Godfather, when town doesn't know there is one. But really, anything other than VT is good.
3. Spring
4. Depends on the amount of advance warning and type of apocalpyse. Generally, be moving toward the appropriate survival location after gearing up but before the masses. Probably leading a group of some kind.

[davesaz]

I'm curious to see where this really goes.

VOTE: Boonskies

[davesaz]

I am aware that davesaz was the first to vote grib and so I can't really use that logic for why he voted in the first place, but it is interesting to me that when he did change, it was in this manner.

You do know what an RVS vote is, right?

[davesaz]

dave, why was my opening strange? Ricastle's curious.

I don't often see people put "I'm not scum" in their first post in the game.

[davesaz]

Dave, thoughts on Rubicon and BagelS? And can you answer Grib's 34 please?

See above post. Though it would have been easier to quote my original post that Grib's 34 was referring to, as I'd then be more likely to notice it was my post you were really asking about.

BTW You can wrap a post number in "post" tags and it will link automatically, like this.

Code: Select all

[post]34[/post]

Please hold regarding Rubicon and BagelS. It's a work day and I'll need more than a couple of minutes...

[davesaz]

Please hold regarding Rubicon and BagelS. It's a work day and I'll need more than a couple of minutes...

Rubicon is

acting

townish. I'll need to see more to know if it's real.

[davesaz]

I fell asleep between trying to read Rubicon and PointYbagelS. This was a function of it being after midnight my time.
PointYbagelS is coming across as genuine, which makes me lean town.

[davesaz]

Ricastle, isn't it a little early to associate people merely by their posting? When I see someone seriously instigating a townblock, I usually question if they are mafia trying to fit in by friending town without individual buddying. Though I have not gone back to games where it happened to see if that was an accurate read. Might not be a bad project... Note, I don't think of less serious / joking townblocks as alignment indicative at all. I don't remember offhand the tone of this one.

[davesaz]

I wanted to jump on one of these wagons but davesaz continues to be wholly unconvincing. He has not posted anything he wasn't asked for. This comes off as scum pseudo-lurking to allow the town to continue their line of thought. I just can't see any motivation to do that as town, but it seems scummy regardless of grib's/kitz's alignment.

The observation (I haven't posted much) is accurate, but your conclusion is incorrect. There is a natural pattern to my activity driven by work schedules, and this is the low activity end of the cycle. I also tend to listen more than talk when faced with a large number of unknown people. But this is self meta and I won't blame you if you require that actual activity to see the town in me. The fact that you're questioning it is one of the things that makes you come across as genuine to me.

[davesaz]

Well, that Ricastle / Grib / Skold triangle is turning out to be interesting. Note to self, continue to follow this.

[davesaz]

Well, that Ricastle / Grib / Skold triangle is turning out to be interesting. Note to self, continue to follow this.

What do you mean triangle? Are they the players you find scummiest? If there's multiple scum in that group they're hella bussing each other.

The interactions seem to form a triangle. Haven't formed an opinion on alignments yet, but I expect it will be significant.

[davesaz]

Ricastle

Ricastle

is definitely town!

Glad to hear it. Any thoughts on Skold?

I was waiting someone to question me why? value play fail, *sad face*

You didn't wait long enough, I would have replied that your post was missing a "because" clause.

[davesaz]

Right click the post number, copy link as. Then use that link as the target of a URL tag. Or use what Grib said.

[davesaz]

Playing turtle scum

Dave

? That's bad!

I have no idea what you mean by that term.

If you want to find out if anyone is going to question a play you make, you have to leave it out there long enough for some people to actually see it before you reveal what you were looking for.

[davesaz]

I read the two posts and made my reply in one session btw, in case you thought I saw the first one and let it go until after you revealed.

[davesaz]

I hate to interrupt, but what was the point of the rolleyes? You do realize that the clown thing was a reaction to it?

[davesaz]

and cannot gramr speak for himself? does he communicate so poorly that you need to step in and speak for him?

My question relates to reading you by determining your motive. What did you find questionable in Garmr's post?

[davesaz]

I think the wagon built too fast, especially with the slot being replaced. This makes me suspect there are scum on the list, but I don't like to use pre-flip VCA.

[davesaz]

I think the wagon built too fast, especially with the slot being replaced. This makes me suspect there are scum on the list, but I don't like to use pre-flip VCA.

Why are you coming with this observation? what direction do you want to push?

I don't know yet -- if I did, then I'd push it. Also at my age, it's a prop to remember what I was thinking at the time.

[davesaz]

@Elusive: it is strategically sound for VT to prefer their own lynch/NK to a PR's, but psychologically some people prefer/need to try to survive whether it's the right strategic move or not.

@Nero: the immediate past should be part of meta, but don't let it dominate too much

[davesaz]

As usual, the wrong part of my post gets focused on. Maybe I'm just including too much. The real point of the comment is that we can't read the slot based solely on the claim / replace out. To reiterate:

Psychologically some people prefer/need to try to survive whether it's the right strategic move or not.

We should act like the claim didn't happen.

That being said, if we're going to talk general strategy instead of scumhunt we might as well lynch now. If we're not actively scumhunting/townhunting, we gain nothing by extending the day. (so town points to ricastle for doing just that)

You could try not replying, if you'd prefer to stay away from strategy. I'm going to refrain from extending the discussion on true VT claims, even though it approaches being physically painful to leave a fallacy unchallenged.

[davesaz]

I'd like to hear from Skold a paraphrase of why the jbomber wagon was started in the first place.

[davesaz]

I think I know why some people are scum reading jbomb. If the reason is what I think, I strongly disagree that the reason is always alignment indicative. And falsely making a case out of that reason is itself extremely scummy, because it's a reason that gets sheeped by lazy town. If there is some other reason they're scum reading the jbomb, then I'd like to know what it is, in case I missed it. In either case, I'd like to see what the replacement posts before we lynch it. If it's a scum slot, there will probably be another more reliable tell that we can use.

As to the why, I'm the type of town who wants to identify actually scummy behavior before I lynch someone. I don't pull a read out of a place the sun doesn't shine and toss it out there to see if it sticks. And I hate naked voting with a passion, because if you let people do it the scum can hide there effortlessly.

[davesaz]

Why me though?

I am trying to figure out who actually started it. Your vote seemed to be first. And I'm looking for something specific.

To reply to creative, if I come right out and say what, then it will ruin the effect.

[davesaz]

I'd like to hear from Skold a paraphrase of why the jbomber wagon was started in the first place.

PointYBagels and Rubicon are up next.

[davesaz]

I know town who are

very

focused on not looking scummy. I know a

lot

of them. And they're town more often than scum, because scum know they need to

not say

they're focused on not looking scummy. Scum on the other hand love it when townies say they're trying not to look scummy, because in that case the scum can manipulate the

incorrect

site meta that trying to not look scummy is scummy. It's a myth, and people need to stop using it as a standalone scumtell.

Hard defending a scumbuddy? That got to L-1? Surely you must be joking.

I wanted to see if there was a reason other than "tried to not look scummy". Let's discuss that. Because trying to not look scummy sucks as a sole reason for a wagon but it combines pretty well with almost anything other than inactivity or derp. And voting someone for trying to not look scummy is a scumtell if it's the only reason someone votes, but drops off when in combination.

BTW I needed a couple of people on record before posting this, or it kinda defeats the point of the inquiry.

Pedit: If you're right, jbomb was in the perfect zone until a bunch of sheep joined the wagon. There are times you want to be a little bit scummy but not enough to be lynched.

[davesaz]

Dave, does it matter what order we answer you in?

Not any longer. I'd be interested in further reasons other than "not wanting to look bad".

All the replacements are going to mess with trying to graph interactions. Finding pockets of isolation is one of my favorite ways to analyze a large, though it can be time consuming.

[davesaz]

@Ricastle, I saw that observation and was asking if there was any more to it.

@Creative, it's not meant to be a "defense" per se. I don't see a real need to be defensive. I'm explaining so that if/when I get NK'd the remaining town will know to treat my words with some value.

@Klingoncelt, you haven't had a chance to see me post much. I often have a theory, and usually explain it in painstaking detail because I tend to make leaps that others can't follow. Even with the detail I often forget to connect all the dots. If you remove the bias against me does it make sense?

Finally to answer PeaceBringer (in a somewhat roundabout way):

I started this exchange with no read on Jbomb at all, and doubting the wagon due to its acceleration. I did not think the "trying not to get myself into trouble" post was alignment indicative when I saw it initially. My approach to figuring it out was a little like one of the submarine hunting tactics in a Tom Clancy book -- fire a torpedo and see who maneuvers in what direction.

After getting some explanations from folks on the wagon (does wonders to have more than a naked vote) I'm leaning scum on the slot. That would still mean there are likely scum on the wagon, trying to make town points while jettisoning a liability.

[davesaz]

Actually, a clarification. I was asking if there were any more points from other people, not for an elaboration on that point. But thanks.

[davesaz]

Please add the list of who is being placed to the notes in the VC.

[davesaz]

I agree.

[davesaz]

I still don´t like

Davesaz

posts, would really like to know where he stands this game.

What don't you like about the truth?

Where I stand is I don't have a lot of strong reads. The difference between scum and town in that respect is that scum will try to evade this point where town have nothing to lose by saying it.

[davesaz]

I still don´t like

Davesaz

posts, would really like to know where he stands this game.

What don't you like about the truth?

Where I stand is I don't have a lot of strong reads. The difference between scum and town in that respect is that scum will try to evade this point where town have nothing to lose by saying it.

Are we really talking about telling the truth in a mafia game?

Give me your weak reads then.

Even when I'm scum, I try my best to use truth. In that case it's just not the best truth.

Sorry, I thought I had done a spectrum in this game, but when I ISO'd myself to quote it, no dice.
My bad. It's a workday so I can't promise a specific timeframe.

[davesaz]

Yay, replacements!

Dave's recommended reading:
Look at JBomb slot's awkward moment, saying he didn't want to do something that would get him into trouble.

Some of the reaction to that may be town but I strongly suspect some scum push on it, because it's the kind of mistake that scum can pursue for free. This carries even if the slot ultimately flips scum, because scum on that wagon would still be in prime bussing position.

[davesaz]

Hmm. Does anyone reliable know if House town meta is highly variable?

[davesaz]

Hmm. Does anyone reliable know if House town meta is highly variable?

What a terrible question.

You could simply ask me. I am the pre-eminent authority on House meta, considering I quite literally wrote the book on it.

I've been castigated so many times for "self meta" that I was hoping to get an unbiased opinion.

[davesaz]

That one is actually more characteristic of what I've seen before.
How about a town game where your posts average more than 2 lines?

[davesaz]

All my reads are very weak, as can be expected on d1.
This is all from accumulated memory and will need some rereading.

Town lean

Nero Cain
PeaceBringer
Creative
Ricastle
Grib
elusive
House

Null - Conflicting data

PointYBagelS
Errantparabola
Vampirate

Null - insufficient data

Bellaphant
Xayzeck
Boonskiies

Scum lean

-- these are the ones I need to focus my rereads on, along with the conflicting data ones
Klingoncelt -- gut, closest to null of the scum leans
Kitz -- my memory of Kitz is choppy play that seemed to lack an inquisitive nature
Rubicon -- I remember a lot of simple posting and don't remember a lot of stands
Skold -- what I remember is finding reasons to take positions, vs finding things and taking positions where they lead

VOTE: Skold

[davesaz]

Xayzeck has had some activity on site since showing up and then saying he'd iso his predecessor. I think I'll move him from insufficient data to lean scum.

[davesaz]

Twilight is between end of day and the flip being posted.

[davesaz]

I had the same thought as 1215. Scum having that thought would want to eliminate the player in question.

[davesaz]

Davesaz

Spoiler:

I had the same thought as 1215. Scum having that thought would want to eliminate the player in question.

Stop softing my role dude.

The House post I quoted was about Vampirate, not you. Why are you injecting yourself into it?

[davesaz]

Work has been tight. @Creative you missed my reads post?

[davesaz]

Ricastle interacted with Skold a lot, in a way that made it seem like he thought Skold was scummy. But he didn't actually call Skold scum until after voting him.

[davesaz]

there is not enough attention being paid to skold lynch other than the loudest pusher. Who was quietly on that or egging it on?

Bella said she was "pretty sure" Skold was scum yet never pushed him. Looking back, that does seem pretty weird. (902)

I might see what you're referring to, but am not sure. Are you basing this off the one post, or more? And did you pay attention to when it was?

[davesaz]

Errantparabola said Skold was town, said he'd prefer Garmr, but voted Skold anyway.

[davesaz]

Can you show me games where Boon wasn't super lurk town the first couple days? Because in my experience he is.

Didn't meta him.

Are you saying he doesn't lurk as scum?

Question: do you generally tend to think lurkers are scummy? Has that been accurate for you in the past?

[davesaz]

Can you show me games where Boon wasn't super lurk town the first couple days? Because in my experience he is.

Didn't meta him.

Are you saying he doesn't lurk as scum?

Irrelevant. Boons lurking is not indicative of alignment and is not indicative of scum either way

Similar question for you -- is lurking indicative for people other than Boons? Do you find "scumreading lurkers" to be a scumtell?

[davesaz]

Grib, is your Xay vote anything other than PL the lurker?

[davesaz]

The recent stuff from Grib made me think scum doing some cherry picking, but then I looked back at ISO and remembered why I had him as town.

Still not happy about the cherry picking though. I think PeaceBringer got tangled up in some awkward language but there are plenty of other posts which seem normal. I'll need to look though, because some of PeaceBringer's posting is damage control and it could be either scum or town damage control.

Vampirate seems town. Nero is lean town. I'm unsure of House. Creative seems fairly town. I'd like to see more details from Rubicon, as I remember being edgy about him.

This post didn't identify any scum reads. I know that, have been a little out of touch with this game due primarily to higher than average workload.

[davesaz]

Dave's brain can't come to the forum right now, it's fully engaged with a work issue.

[davesaz]

Catching up after a hellish week at work. This caught my eye.

Now, having read all of this, I want EVERYBODY to give their concrete read on Xayzeck in their next post. Commit to a townread or a scumread, right fucking now.

Is your read on the slot or the player?

I think more likely to be scum than town. Don't know how the strength of read will compare to other players I need to look into.

[davesaz]

Xayzeck is town, if only for multiple of my scumreads scumreading him. I guess he could be a sacrificial lamb but I'd sooner assume he's just low-hanging fruit.

I read the first half of this post as "the enemy of my enemy is my friend". I don't think that's a valid reason to townread someone. You could be wrong about your scumreads. You also downplay the possibility that if your scumreads are indeed scum then they could scumread a buddy to distance.

What do you get as a read if you leave out the associations? A townread should be doing something you can say is town.

[davesaz]

I'd rather stick to my reads than contradict myself. That's all there is to it.

This can be interpreted as "changing my read might look scummy". I wonder what your previous position has been on people who do things like this?

[davesaz]

Fair enough. I scanned for contradictions in your posting on this issue and didn't see any.

[davesaz]

So 3 different players have now asked for Ricastle to read Xayzeck based on posts and not on associatives.

[davesaz]

End of day is creeping up on us.

VOTE: Xayzeck

[davesaz]

Defending Boon isn't necessarily a scumtell, because in general the standard traitor role means that mafia know there is a traitor but don't know who. There is a chance that Boon said something useful, but I wouldn't bet on it.

[davesaz]

Hmm, RIP's entry was interesting. Thinking it might be a scummy interesting. But I'm not really sure.
I'm gonna have to read it again, slowly.

[davesaz]

Btw, what's this reference to eggs?

[davesaz]

Taly, I've been unbelievably busy at work. You're not the only one to notice my absence. On the upside, workload might go down to normal within a few days. Scum appear to be keeping me in their back pockets for a mislynch later. I hope town listens to me when they try it.

[davesaz]

RIP, I used to think the same way, that active players tend to be town and less active tend to be scum. Scum trying to mislynch lurkers is a thing here. Enough of a thing that town won a game I was recently in primarily because one of the scum went specifically after lurkers. And you definitely can't take high activity as a town indicator either. My first game on the site, the player with the most posts in the game turned out to be scum.

I think RIP could be scum. The high post count could be an attempt to exploit what would be a towntell on his other site.

Also regarding low post counts, in my particular case, I never lie about RL. I have stated several times that I've been busy, and lack of posts is not alignment indicative under those conditions.

I think one of Elusive or Nero could be scum after seeing their interaction over the last 4 pages or so. I don't like Elusive's town block.

[davesaz]

Re: 1357 That was a formatting error. He tried to post it twice and didn't come back a 3rd time with an edit.

[davesaz]

Umm, yeah I see it, thanks. My main question on that is how much is real signaling, and how much is false trails? I have only seen Boon in one other game and don't know from that if he's crafty enough to do the false trail thing.

[davesaz]

I too would like an answer to 2600.
VOTE: Klingoncelt

[davesaz]

Why is RM still in the vc?
Why no hammer?

Votecount has been fixed.

[davesaz]

why so anxious to hammer Davey?

I don't think anxious is the right term here. I'm the type of player who uses logic on the flips.

[davesaz]

Interesting NK choice, especially with some of the other claims.
Tracker results are in no way conclusive, especially tracker clears. It's quite possible for the tracker to be town and both of the results to be accurate but not clearing.
This might be enough data for a partial solution, but I'll need hours if not days to go through the data.

[davesaz]

Hey here are some questions:

1. What does Nero keep lying about mafiacraft? Why does he blatantly misrep me my meta from that game and try to pass it off as noob scum? Why? Look up the game he's talking about if you have the balls, which I doubt either of you do, and prove his point that in fact based on meta this isn't my town game.

Or you know {}

I don't see a glaring similarity between that game and this one. Maybe you can show us what you're talking about?

[davesaz]

I'm not sure what Mafiacraft game you're reading davesaz but here are some quotes below, in spoilers.

Your argument appears to be that you posted "sharp" comments. I was interpreting Nero's comment to be that this game has more emotional content than the Mafiacraft game that I found. I don't see that as a misrep, since I see a difference between "sharp" and "emotional".

[davesaz]

Was that supposed to make sense?
What makes you lock clear?

[davesaz]

If anyone is wondering still. Read pag 22 and make sure to LOCK clear vamp. We need vamp

Huh?

[davesaz]

Btw how about dave? When can we just blast him?

How about not.

[davesaz]

And all this talk of lock clearing people is just nuts. There is a huge difference between a strong town read and a lock. The only people who can easily say someone is a lock for town are cops and scum -- and you're clearing way too many people to be a cop.

[davesaz]

The lock clear thing is bugging me. Don't know if I'll stay here but...

VOTE: RIP

@MOD: Is Nero's vote recorded accurately?

Fixed.

[davesaz]

Dave can u explain ur horrible vote?

My vote is not horrible. Your "lock clearing" people is horrible.

Spoiler: lots of clears

Scummy:

Klingoncelt
Peacebringer

WELL WOULD YOU LOOK AT THAT

Wow this is interesting and strengthen my scum read of both. Creative was killedby mafia since grib claimed the boon kill.

Yes. Nero's just bad town this game, VI'ing it up.

then this

Hmm suspect. Ithink him defending nero here is bad. We can sheep me onto nero and I can lock clear myself.
I'm very very sure nero flips mafia here.

so basically boon tunneled KC, called nero town, and said house vs nero is tvt, that is it.

seriously you think boon is coming out tunnel busing KC?
I don't buy it.

Tvt is town vs town correct? Well I'm town. He prop pushed Kling and she's town and then put house and nero there as town but nero is scum

I was using this thread logic.

You think I'm scum so why are u so shock I would do something so scummy. Like something soesnt add up.

U have dave say that I could be scum cuz I post a lot and that's the reason he's posting so little.

So the scummiest person is Pb, he's posting way too much.
I now have madman as a lock clear, cuz scum wouldn't lurk.

How don't u see it? And why are u reading me like if u know I'm town acting like the rest of u?

What the fuck would be the point in getting a potential teammate killed in order to join the Team?

Why would that necessarily get you killed?

If you think I am scummy for this then why is RIP not scummy for this?

I can say this now because that other game is done, RIP is a noob and somewhat of a loose cannon. Over time in a game his play and decisions improve considerably. If he hasn't improved considerably by the end of the next Day then I'll reconsider my read on him.

Why do you not understand that I am able to see players as individuals?

That's not good enough.
Why don't u tell them how I tunnel you and then was able to lock cleared u once u stopped trolling.
After scum tried to get me myslinched I ended up killing them back to back nights and then calling out the rest.
By then it was too late but they had to kill me and by then I had destroy that scum team.
Check all my completed games lol. They have to Nk me ASAP to win.
Same will happen here, scum will be stupid to leave me alive. I'm never getting lynched

Elusive is acting like she cannot be killed.
She pushes me for no reason.
She claimed watcher or something but I just don't think is true
She has derail other wagon.
I think killing her when she's getting no heat with lock clear me. Inb4imbussing

If elusive is saying truth then she likely dies tonight.
I think rubicon is town, strong reasons.
Ricastle lock town, I'm guessing his weak role thing was because he is a neighbor? I don't see how's thsts a weak pr. That's a lazy reason to vote KC. Neighbor are always town aligned and is a role that can easy clear.
I think we are looking good even if we MISLYNCH here. She's poe anyways and won't make it far alive.
I want to clear vamp and errant too for a super solid town block. Anyone else we can kill in any order
From slankers and up

Vamp is Conf town. If that wasn't clear so I'll be capping anyone pushing his wagon or mine.
I'm lock clear too.

Elusive jumping on my wagon after Nero vote and ore he called for my head is scum play that u can spot from the moon.

Rubicon I don't like u case on vamp.
And I hate hate the case from peace.
Can we just kill peace and elusive and finish this game?

If anyone is wondering still. Read pag 22 and make sure to LOCK clear vamp. We need vamp

Rubi read vamp post and tell me how he's ever scum?
Dude is trying hard and has some good thought process in his reads.

Errant btw is also lock clear, I don't wanna go into too much. Just know we are never killing him.

At this point I'm looking at

Rubicon
RIP
Nero Cain
Errantparabola
PointYBagelS

in no particular order.

I find it funny she added me here, once I started saying I might be wrong about her and I as thinking about hammer.
She cleared me ALL game and I was like the best town read of hers. If I. Not lock clear I don't know who is

If there's a scum in that list im betting everything on nero or pointy.

Here's what we can get from that list.

There is 98 % chance there's none or just one scum there.
I say if we find one then we can lock clear the rest

Why im being wagon? Dave please try to keep up dude.
There's scummy wagon and scummy people getting by and u are tunneling me cuz u don't like I say I'm lock clear? That's how I play. Adapt bro

Tbh I was looking forward to the told u so and a bunch of im the lockest clear in the game now, on the last two days I started to really be like : Hmm damn she's really struggling and if she flips scum im fucked.

But anyways I know I'm clear but u guys don't know that yet. I don't blame u, had she flipped town it would be a different story.

Stop. The. Bullshit.

[davesaz]

There is also the horrible "everyone who lurks is automagically scum" thing.
IMO this is scum BS of the highest order. One of the easiest ways to win as scum is to be very very active and mislynch all the inactive townies.

Does this mean I have a lock scum on you? No, of course it doesn't. But it's definitely worth a vote.

[davesaz]

I'm not claimng nothing.
The results were results of my trademark ISO and search skills and soul reading abilities.

So you're essentially making stuff up.

[davesaz]

I don't remember any use of "lock clear" in that game.

If you're referring to the scumreading of inactive players, I was the scum in that game trying to use inactivity as a scumtell.

[davesaz]

I'm gonna stay put and see what a few more people say about it.

[davesaz]

2)[/b] Dave, are you alive? I feel like you're mostly making small posts on people you're suspecting. You were a lot more vocal in the other game where we were both town :/

I've had trouble with RL work. The extreme activity you noted in that game came after I got a strong whiff on a possible solution. The eureka moment will come, and there won't be any doubt when it does.

[davesaz]

dave never townslipped; I Cop'd him N1.

I started out being a little suspicious of the "townslip" since I couldn't find it. But enough people ran with it that I decided it would be better to just be happy to be townread by someone.

[davesaz]

If one of Grib's JOAT powers was cop, what's the chance we have another n-shot cop in the game? This makes me continue to question RIP's clears. Scum could quite easily fakeclaim a N-shot cop and "clear" townies to gain the trust of those people plus anyone who is townreading them.

[davesaz]

A review of pisskop looks quite different from games where we were town. I would find it hard to believe he's really just meh about the game. This is very different from a simple lurker.

VOTE: pisskop

I also see the case against Elusive, and it isn't a bad one. But I'd have her as closest to town of those in the questionable pile.

[davesaz]

In pretty much every way.

[davesaz]

But I'd have her as closest to town of those in the questionable pile

Who is the questionable pile? piss, peace, elusive, rip?

Yes. I should have clarified though, to say "those in y'all's questionable pile". I have not independently done a complete sort and my list may vary.
I am very comfortable in voting pisskop on his own scumminess, regardless of what others had been saying.

[davesaz]

It was only L-2 before, L-1 now.

[davesaz]

Agree, if town Ika needs to contribute asap. I doubt the slot is town though.

[davesaz]

Here is that same vote count updated for current players. I was having trouble keeping the slots straight.

Vote Count

vampirate

(8):

Skold

, Rubicon, BBT,

Ricastle

,

Creative

, Nero Cain, PointYbagelS, PeaceBringer

Skold

(2):

elusive, Grib

elusive

(2):

taly,

Garmr

Boonskiies

(1):

davesaz

Klingoncelt

(1):

Boonskiies

PointYbagelS

(1):

Klingoncelt

Nero Cain

(1):

vampirate

Not Voting

(2):

Kitz

, RIP

[/quote]

I also think it's interesting that both of the killed town were on that wagon. If there are 4 scum and a traitor I think it's very likely to be 1 on and 1 off, especially knowing that they had an encryptor. Day 2 and 3 wagon analysis might reveal some flow patterns that are indicative of being daytalk driven.

[davesaz]

Pointy spent the 2nd half of D2 as the counterwagon to KlingonCelt. With daytalk I'd figure mafia would be actively working toward a CW, unless they had already decided there was no way to save KC.

Vampirate was on the KC wagon early. Getting off that type of bus would be very risky. Of those two, I'd lean toward Vampirate, and if he flips scum I'll be kicking myself over doubting (now known) town's reaction to JBomber back on day 1.

PEdit: I think 3+traitor is too weak, even with both the team scum being PRs so far.

[davesaz]

I'm VT.

Regarding N1, some possibilities are:

Someone is a BP, perhaps the traitor was BP and either didn't recruit or mod didn't add the recruited modifier to the flip.
We have a doc who hasn't revealed because the target is already flipped town.
We have a roleblocker, in which case a reveal now might nail scum if the target was not in the known / cleared town list.
We have a JK, in which case the result might yield a 50/50 chance of catching scum.
Scum decided not to NK to try to screw with PRs, which I doubt would happen in a large unless the team is a big one.

I could see the lack of kill last night as being a single scum who flaked, but it's more likely to be 2 scum who both flaked. It could also be doc (who still should not claim unless we're about to mislynch either the doc or their targets), RB or JK (who should definitely claim along with all targets).

[davesaz]

I'm on board with Taly.

1. Late bus on Klingon.
2. Pushed the CW to Ika really hard.
3. Has not posted since May 30th. Has not visited since May 30 (but I think that's not updated if you're in stealth)

VOTE: Taly

@BBT, I find 1st letter crumbs to be next to useless. Not that I mind, just saying I never catch them.

[davesaz]

With a traitor not guaranteed to be recruited, it would be 3.5 scum which is pretty weak. 4.5 makes more sense, with it becoming 5 on a successful recruit. We'd expect slightly more than usual town PRs for balance. The type of JOAT that Grib is counts as a full, so do a doc and tracker. I'm still suspicious of having both a JOAT and 2-shot cop (as claimed by RIP). A doc on elusive is not a clear given the the kill could have been Boon if it's a BP traitor, but I do think she's town.

PEdit: Why, is that L-1 already? Just in case...

UNVOTE:

[davesaz]

vote Vamp...

really frustrated here and the aviodance of jbomber is standing out...

Any result for last night?

[davesaz]

I read "taly didn't go anywhere" as a comment on the wagon. Derp...

With a no-kill night this is a meaningless result, despite presence of a doc.
I'm pretty skeptical about their being a JOAT

and

a 2-shot cop

and

a tracker. That's a lot of investigative power.

[davesaz]

I don't get how a "no result" turns into a guilty. That assumes ascetic is only used as a scum modifier, doesn't it?
I would like to see more explanation from RIP. Twice now he has claimed to be lying about something.

[davesaz]

VOTE: RIP

[davesaz]

To get an answer, of course.

[davesaz]

Trying to figure a scum motivation for faking a no result. Also trying to figure a town motivation for checking Nero. I'll have to come back to it tomorrow, because I can't keep my eyes open long enough to get any useful analysis done.

[davesaz]

What about a scum factional kill taking town cred by claiming JOAT?

[davesaz]

Assume traitor unknown...

[davesaz]

That's quite a spread. I'm thinking one or more of the people working diligently to break up wagons could be scum.

[davesaz]

This guy is, but it's dinner time. I'll give you something to chew on in the meantime. (OMG that's bad lol)
The VC just posted by RIP indicates Elusive, otherwise why wouldn't Ika vote the CW? I suggest looking for interactions between Ika and Elusive slot.

[davesaz]

Dinner was spaghetti with homemade sauce and meatballs.

Interesting stuff to be found by looking around.

vote: Elusive

firs off

UNVOTE:

that doesnt need to be there

i have been losely follwing along with the game

Makes me wonder what the trajectories of pisskop/Ika and Elusive wagons were that day.

[davesaz]

That's a ptetty strong reaction. What missing info?

[davesaz]

Going from memory on the known info columns. This assumes the 'alive' list in the op was up to date except for PointYBagels and PeaceBringer

elusive
Nero Cain - cop by RIP gave 'no result' ?
Grib - claimed JOAT
davesaz - Grib says cleared
Rubicon
Vampirate
Drixx
RIP - claimed cop
BlueBloodedToffee - claimed doc

I thought BBT's hammer post was kinda interesting.
So who are the scum on the wagon? That VCA will probably be my next move.

[davesaz]

Carry that thought a little farther.

[davesaz]

Pointy wagon analysis ho.

PointYBagelS (6): Rubicon, Nero Cain, elusive, RIP, Grib, BlueBloodedToffee

Rubicon - vote in 3952, reason was in 3950 but it was pretty weak, based on Nero's 3937
Nero - vote in 4007, PoE apparently, or 3937 as a reason
Elusive - vote in 4031, no reason directly given. Must be PoE
RIP voted in 4045, "pointy looks bad anyways"
Grib voted in 4046 with a "whee". Had given reasons for scum read back in the 3500's
BBT voted in 4066 with "Ahhhhh". Had Pointy or Vampirate as a lynch pool earlier.

This is one of the ugliest late game lynches I've ever seen. The town on this lynch did us no favors by being so lazy about giving reasons, because it left the scum a perfect hiding place.

[davesaz]

If you had an actual reason, I'm sure you can quote it.

[davesaz]

Going from memory on the known info columns. This assumes the 'alive' list in the op was up to date except for PointYBagels and PeaceBringer

elusive
Nero Cain - cop by RIP gave 'no result' ?
Grib - claimed JOAT
davesaz - Grib says cleared
Rubicon
Vampirate
Drixx
RIP - claimed cop
BlueBloodedToffee - claimed doc

I thought BBT's hammer post was kinda interesting.
So who are the scum on the wagon? That VCA will probably be my next move.

What are your reads?

The only people I'm reasonably sure are town are Grib, Rubicon, and myself.

Vampirate still has a cloud from JBomber.
RIP's claim seems fake. The x-shot doesn't seem to fit the revealed PRs, and two cops (with Grib JOAT) seems wrong.
If RIP's claim is true then Nero is lying.
BBT's claim could easily be fake and I had a weak scum on the slot before.
Drixx slot could have been the scum that failed to even submit a kill the previous night.
Elusive had some weird associations that I pointed out yesterday.

Dave
Grib
Rubicon
----- nulltown
Elusive
----- nullscum
Nero
Vampirate
----- scum
BBT
Drixx
RIP

[davesaz]

I feel it's important you don't check out entirely while doing it. Other than keeping up with the current events, how you re-read is up to you IMO.

[davesaz]

I'm really beginning to suspect BBT. His normally aggressive scum hunting is absent, and a fake doc claim is trivial to make on a no-kill night. Doubly so if it hides the obvious fact that the no-kill could be because a likely scum suspect was flaked at the time. He could even be the scum who didn't submit the kill, for that matter, even on purpose for the obvtown doc claim. The only risk would be if there was a counter claim, and we already have doubled roles (presumed town) which means a counter claim could be WIFOM'd away with ease.

[davesaz]

I'm not sure it matters what a single scum could do, because I think it's a fairly good chance we have two left.
I still think the no-kill could have been because there wasn't even a kill submitted that night. Why get so hung up on there being an action to stop it?

[davesaz]

VOTE: Drixx
Have been thinking this for quite a long time.

[davesaz]

Attention town: Drixx & BBT look to be the scum.
Go ahead and flip me if you want the proof.

[davesaz]

A doc claim is one of the least comfirmable claims. But the clincher for me is that you're not scumhunting the way I expect. And you (and Drixx) were mostly fine with me until I started suspecting you...

Granted, cop clears are indeed susceptible to godfathers, so I'm not confirmed either. Nobody is confirmed, not even Grib or RIP. In a closed setup we have no idea if they're both true claims or one is fake. That has been my whole point all along. Town is trusting the claims too much, and also putting too much faith in the estimated number of scum.

[davesaz]

Iso me.
ctrl-f 'work'
read results
retract vote

[davesaz]

Replying to Drixx:

Reaction test. Did you ask me about it, or use it as an excuse to go searching for borderline things you could call scummy?
It's also a reaction test for some others -- do they pile on or question what you posted.
The one I thought was townier questioned what you posted. The one I thought was scummier piled on. Though I doubt, if there were two scum, that both would jump so quickly and so hard.
Someone is absent from the discussion. I considered waiting on this reply...

To Rubicon: With one scum, one of RIP and Nero Cain have to be lying. Unless we have a town PR who hasn't revealed, which would be a huge derp at this point. With two scum, then I agree that lynch pool pretty much has to yield at least one scum. The only way it wouldn't yield scum is if we had two and it was both you and BBT, which I just can't see with the posting records.

Pedit: I had something written on the subject of Nero or RIP first, but would like to see BBT's reply.

[davesaz]

EBWOP: the naked vote was a reaction test...

[davesaz]

That doesn't change the purpose of making it naked.

[davesaz]

That doesn't change the purpose of making it naked.

You don't get to make a series of posts foreshadowing your intent to vote someone, then naked vote them and afterward claim it was a reaction test.

You don't get to call it a naked vote and then bring up the foreshadowing. If there was foreshadowing then it isn't really naked, or to be more technically accurate it isn't without reasons.
When I say I did something for a reason, I mean it. I chose to make it (technically) naked to see what would happen. See Open 589 for a reference on my attitude toward statements on why I do things.

How about that "triangle" you were talking about early in the game? What was the importance of that? Why did you abandon it? Did you realize that only one of those people is still alive? You seemed to think there was scum there, but you dropped that like a brick.

Ricastle was painting Grib as a SK, and Skold was defending Grib. Grib was responding to Ricastle and largely ignoring Skold. I thought that a Skold scum flip might point to Grib by ignoring the WIFOM that scum would not so hard defend a buddy but the buddy sure would try to ignore the partner in that case. After Skold flipped town, the scumbuddy theory was out the window. Nagging doubts remain on Grib's claim though. Didn't I just say that I don't consider any of the claims to be confirmed?

[davesaz]

Why the if?

[davesaz]

I should have been more adamant that Grib's role meant RIP was lying!
GG!

[davesaz]

If one of Grib's JOAT powers was cop, what's the chance we have another n-shot cop in the game? This makes me continue to question RIP's clears. Scum could quite easily fakeclaim a N-shot cop and "clear" townies to gain the trust of those people plus anyone who is townreading them.

Someone did question it.