Open 680.1 C9++ | Endgame

[FireScreamer]

Mind talking about why?

[FireScreamer]

I never accused you of fearmongering to be fair. Don't conflate me with GC.

[FireScreamer]

I'll deal with the rest tomorrow but that stuck out at me the most.

[FireScreamer]

@Brian, I'm kinda on the fence on Umlaut. But consider this: Both FS and Umlaut have played in a way to keep me from sounding credible. In fact over half of either of their ISO's are either 1-2 liner fluff posts or trying to make me look bad.

Some town is buying into it, but they've only ever been pushing me.

Even if you dislike my probability theory, the fact remains it is probably right and if it is, then scum would definitely want the 3 people who were scum last game to hang this game just so they can buy themselves time. Which when they've been trying to control the wagons and every wagon offers little resistance compared to FS. Trying to get votes on FS is like pulling bloody teeth. Now, scum would be all too happy to get on a mislynch of this is what is was. That and funny how they suspect anyone who is suspicious of them. They've not really gone after dave, rory or anyone who didn't suspect them. Which means they also aren't taking risks. If they aren't taking risks, they are playing it safe. If they're playing it safe, we got scum.

You stop yourself from sounding credible. You don't need any help.

Citation: This post

[FireScreamer]

@Brian

Thanks for answering. I was asking because I can't understand why anyone would be willing to vote on Titus' say-so right now. It sounds like you're saying it doesn't have much to do with Titus at all.

What do you find confusing about my test on Firebringer?

@FireScreamer

I think it's time to accept that Titus is not going to make herself any more transparent, at least not today. We can drop it or we can wagon her, but if there's a third option I haven't thought of it.

Don't tell me what my options are.

[FireScreamer]

VOTE: Fire

ThinkBig just count the one that's on scum.
You know which one I am talking about.

You really want to make my life difficult, don't you?

It's about time you showed up. Goddamn this about to be both lit af and confusing af.

So the game will be like being on weed.

Gross. Weed is like the second least pleasant drug i've never used.

Why is this?

That never should be an ever.

It smells bad it gets everywhere. It's invasive and the high is mild.

[FireScreamer]

@Alchemist, Gamma and Narna, what would it take to get you three to vote FS? We can't rely on the others because they've shown they will resist his wagon and if he flips red, we might be able to get two birds with one stone. If you can't help put him at L1, WHY is he town to you all? Look at his ISO, it's fluff, no cases built, nothing. He's relying on being "Town read" to get by. He's not actually trying to scum hunt.

My ISO has me doing more actual sorting attempts than anyone in the game.

[FireScreamer]

@Alchemist. BUT you don't think he's townie neither. At the very least, it'd be a good idea to light a fire under his ass.

I'm the most active poster in the thread. I've engaged in far more pushes and discussion of pushes than you have. I don't need the fire. I AM the fire.

[FireScreamer]

@GC Do you think the change in tone from GC towards the end of that analysis is enough to excuse the play during the rest of it?

[FireScreamer]

from GE*

[FireScreamer]

@GC Do you think the change in tone from GC towards the end of that analysis is enough to excuse the play during the rest of it?

Also it's time to get off of Alchemist unless you can make a fresh case.

[FireScreamer]

First of all, I don't really understand what point you're trying to make. And if it is what I think it is, then why are you using a reaction test on someone based on probability after spending the vast majority of this game getting on CK's case about it? It's incredibly hypocritical.

I got on CK's case because his math was just incorrect as a matter of fact, not because using probability is bad. I actually spent last roll posting detailed tables of probabilities after every PR claim/reveal, and was planning to do that again once we actually had some.

• A priori
  a player is about eight times more likely to be scum than they are to be a mason.
  
• If FB had seriously confirmed the mason "claim," these would be the only two possibilities with any significant likelihood.
  
• Therefore that claim alone would have made FB scum with 8:1 odds.
  
• This reasoning wouldn't work in just any case, because normally masons would have a far higher base rate for claiming mason than scum would.
  
• However,
  in this special case,
  FB would be about equally likely to do so in either case, so this reasoning
  does
  work.

I think this was an

excellent

reaction test even if it was inconclusive, and I would use it again.

I withdraw my objection to what you did.

[FireScreamer]

Brian, what are your feelings on Titus' play? I'm not necessarily asking for a read, just whether you find it pro-town or think you understand her motivations.

All I know is that Titus is heavily reliant on VCA. However, the stars and the planets have aligned and we agree on a read, so I'm sheeping her. And the Rory wagon had no legs.

I think Narna is probably town. His comment about ToS (which I'm assuming to be Town of Salem), reminded me that there are players who actually do push people just to get a claim (it's not their fault though, their classic setup is predicated upon the idea that claim=alignment and they only get like 2-3 minutes per day phase).

I've gone back and tried to look at the game from a Town-CommKnight perspective. I've found myself townreading his thought processes.

Although I don't agree with him about the probability, I can see why he would think it. And FS piggybacking your argument against him felt wrong to me (he also piggybacked my reasons for scumreading

you

). I don't know if he's given a scumread that was based on his own original thought.

Spoiler: FireScreamer Quotes

But yeah. I feel like I've done something this game that I actively wouldn't do as scum and asked a couple of middling questions. The fact that Umlaut ignored the bigger thing makes me think the read wasn't super thought out and I think town is less likely to not properly think about townreads before expressing them.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Comm

This gamblers fallacy stuff is lol. Time to pressure Comm till he reveals it was all a ruse and he is actually 1 shot doc pretending to be scummy.

And come on guys what are the odds of him doing that twice in a row

Eh. Usually I'd assume it's a town gambit but Commknight has already shown a willingness to make plays as scum. I don't think he should be gambiting and if that is what he is doing the quickest way to shut it down is votes.

Even is this was OMGUS that's NAI. However I challenge anyone in the thead to seriously decide that I wouldn't scumread you for this if it was targeting anyone else.

I warn you Comm. If you try and take me down here you will lose. If you are town you need to reconsider suiciding based on a provable logical fallacy. It would leave town with nothing to go on tomorrow.

Fearmongering.

I've already made a statement in the thread I wouldn't have as scum. And I assure you it wasn't a threat. It was a certainty.

^This is a trust tell statement.

If people come at me with questions in an attempt to sort me il work with them. If people come with accusations based in provably flawed logic I'm going to treat it as hostility.

If this is town vs town and you tunnel me down scum will just hop on the side that is making sense. That isn't your side.

Fearmongering. Also unnatural.

Generally I bet that this is reaction test nonsense in which case I'd tell you that you don't have town credability doing this so knock it off.

Unnatural. More fearmongering.

As a joke because he has started this game the same as last by trying to fite the player in the thread that has been most overtly townread.

Idk what this is. FS is putting himself on a pedestal and I didn't get the impression he was being overtly townread.

Interesting that all I have to do is mention the words 'trust tell,' and I get accused of fearmongering. Yet, that's exactly what FireScreamer is doing to CommKnight here. Not to mention that CommKnight is right that some of his comments sound very unnatural from a town perspective.

Spoiler: More FireScreamer Quotes

Uh, +1, or ditto, or whatever the cool kids are saying these days.

Lol, "cool kids." I'M COOL. So just follow me. The cool kids speak proper English. Not the lame "txt spk" kids do or the "1337 5p34k" either. Also that is a life tip for the younger ones playing. If you go to hit on a woman. Intelligence is much more valuable than that shit. (I mean, don't go rocket-sciency intelligence because the average high school girl will not give a rats ass about that and will look at you like you're weird. Even if you speak of Elon Musk. All the kids raving about environmentally friendly and all this liberal stuff. Yet don't even know who Elon Musk is or what he does. My coworkers don't care when I explain it out to them).

ANYWAY, back on topic.

- I've made a list of 2 people I won't lynch today due to probability (TODAY ONLY).
- I've TR'd two people.
- The other 8 people I'm up for lynching if there's a good case on them.

Had you previously stated the "today only" aspect of your probability thing?
Have you said who the TR's are?
Do you have any actual SR's yourself?

Are you aware of what the probability thing says to an observer who is outside the 3 people who get a free pass and the people you're directly arguing with?

Pedit: Yay, replacement!

I find it funny you ask me those things... since I'm literally the only person with an actual reads list in the game... that and I've stated those things multiple times. I mean heck, this is my 23rd post, so even ISO'ing me isn't so bad aside from my walls of text. (I'm going to build great walls... they're going to be great... the greatest you could say. I know people... important people... they'll help to ensure the USA pays for these walls. They're great people and I know them. Very important. Much Doge).

On a serious note. VOTE: FireScreamer.

His play feels off from last game.

{FrankJaeger, Brian Skies, Narna}
{Alchemist, Green Crayons}
{davesaz, Titus, shannon, RoryMK, Necta}
{Umlaut, FireScreamer}

If FireScreamer is red, I'm willing to bet Shannon is too.

VOTE: shannon

Is anyone allowed to ask why or are you wanting to engage Shannon herself?

Also, the likelyhood of mafia last game being mafia this game will actually probably be unlikely. So I'm pretty confident in the team being green this time around. But TB definitely rolled some of our bloc from last game as red this one. I'm willing to bet on it being FS of all people.

Look at that beaut. My first serious post of the day has an early reads list (and people have been getting antsy about it ever since.

My blocs went: Not lynching, slight-TR, Neutral, Suspicious.

As you can see, Umlaut falls on that bloc very easily.

I'm certainly not lynching anyone

today

that was scum last game,

because that is counter-intuitive. It is a gambler's bet. But it's a bet even you know is likely to be correct. Rolling something twice in a row is highly unlikely. Especially if we end up being in a 2 mafia vs 10 VT & 1 1-shot PR game.

Either way,

I'd be willing to roll the dice on either FireScreamer or Umlaut.

It's a hunch,

but it's more than likely a right one and they're gonna rip on me after the game for "getting lucky" if I'm correct. But we'll see.

And oh mah gawd. My next post literally has me saying I won't lynch them TODAY. Then I even went on to say my Umlaut/FS reads were a HUNCH. It's almost like these two posts everyone has gone crazy over... because they might be... RIGHT.

Anyway, I don't mean to be a sarcastic prick.. oh wait. Yes I do. (No I'm just being an ass because my ISO is a quick read when you read those two posts and then base everything since then from those.). Seriously though, think about how Umlaut and FS have reacted since and the wagon forming on me based on those two serious posts of the day. I mean I get I didn't have the BEST case on them at the time (there was nothing solid to go on back then). But now.. as stated in one of my latest posts.

Again, you're taking it too literally and skipping over the parts that help make it make sense. Not sure if intentional or if you're reading what you want to read into me.

- I've made a list of 2 people I won't lynch today due to probability (TODAY ONLY).
- I've TR'd two people.
- The other 8 people I'm up for lynching if there's a good case on them.
- Instead of building said case on them, you worry about defending FS. Which honestly started as a simple SR as scummy behaviour. But mixed with your defense of him. I'm willing to bet more on there being one scum in the two of you if you aren't both scum.

If you don't like my SR of yourself or FS, feel free to make a case for something. But worrying about me providing burden of proof (when there is none currently for anyone) is itself a fallacy. In fact, your entire thing and vote on me is that I don't have a solid case to vote FS. (Which shouldn't worry you unless you somehow know for certain he is town). Which I could argue the same back against you both. You got no real case. Just votes on me for voting FS and suspecting him. Which IS an OMGUS vote.

Back when I was going on about the probability numbers, you guys are soo worried I won't lynch into two other people (and myself included). I'm not enforcing this rule on others. But *I* won't vote in the pool. (Which of course I'm in the pool, I'm not going to vote myself. Herp a derp).

But yet you keep pushing this "Why won't you lynch X?" crud. Unless you got a case against either of them, then it's wise to drop it. Because why aren't YOU lynching X? Again, I have TWO people I'm not voting for DAY ONE. This is what you guys blew out of proportion because I said the random probability is lower on them being scum than others. Then you get antsy about a vote on FS. Again, unless you got some reason to solid TR him, you should want more information from the slot as well, should you not? Or are you going to claim mason buddies? Otherwise your defense of the slot as a townie makes zero sense. You should want to sort EVERYONE, but you're using past-game-confirmation-bias to be against my style of play while writing off the difference in FS now play compared to last game play.

Do I need to spell it out any clearer? So far you and FS have been the most scummy in my eyes and it's only getting worse. Want to prove me wrong? Then let us get more info, or you find a good case for me to look at. Because currently I only see the one valid case of your defense of FS and overreaction to initial reads. Part of it was gut, but now it's your guys' play thus far.

Fastposted by Umlaut. Well as I've stated in this post, it's leaving the probability phase and entering a more reaction phase. I had nothing solid to go on now, but now I believe I do. (Read the above paragraphs).

For real, read the first two posts I quoted of myself. Where in them did I say no one else could look into Frank or Blue Skies? I just said I wouldn't lynch them today based on probability. Which like the probability or not, or like the reasoning or not. It's my own train of thought and it is most likely right this game based on their overreaction to it thus far.

@Rory, the above was towards Dave, but I'm really interested on WHAT you support about my wagon. I just pointed out the two things people got all antsy over me for which can be reread in my VERY short ISO. So what do you agree with again? Because you're sliding down any chance of being TR'd for today. That's for sure. At least Daves isn't blindly following something they see as an easy mislynch. To me, you seem less interested in why the wagon is formed on me or even reason to vote me. Just you see something forming and voting it. Am I wrong?

Also, you never answered my question. When you play a game, do you avoid the PT area of the forum on your moderator account?

"The capital of France is Berlin"

"No it is Paris"

"Wow you shook get him boyz"

I didn't really understand this interaction at the time. However, reading through it again, I find myself sympathizing with CommKnight.

I'd rather reread the thread tomorrow before giving a considered full reads list.

Scum leans -

[CommKnight], Umlaut,

Brian

Town leans Alchemist, GC, Dave

I still stand by my accusation of this being incredibly fencesitty and noncommittal.

I can probably do a more in depth case later, but that seems fine to me. Also, I'm hungry and need to do some things before work.

I want justification for the following statements.

1. Either you independently agree with Titus or you are sheeping her. Which is it?
2. The narna townread. Why?
3. Why is it wrong to "piggyback" an argument against a demonstrably incorrect strategy such as gamblers fallacy? There is a right answer and a wrong answer and there are only so many ways to express that.
4. Show me where I piggyback your umlaut read or reasoning in any way.
5. You don't know if I've given a scumread based on my own original thought? Go back and actually look. If you still want to defend that statement once you say you have done that be my guest.
6. Why do my statements seem unnatural from a town perspective?

[FireScreamer]

Has anyone responded to that argument? Either make a new one, make the same one better or start sorting elsewhere.

[FireScreamer]

@GC Do you think the change in tone from GC towards the end of that analysis is enough to excuse the play during the rest of it?

Not particularly. I don't have a problem with Gamma votes.

Yeah looks like we are at the same place on that. Like I get what you mean about the tonal shift but was there really anywhere else for him to go?

[FireScreamer]

Comm can you lay out why you actually think I am scum again?

[FireScreamer]

Don't wall of text me either because I am having trouble interacting with that from you. We can go into the why of why afterwards. Summarize your reasoning behind the read in say 3 sentences.

[FireScreamer]

Have fun.

[FireScreamer]

If you could talk about your Narna read before you go that would be nice, though we will still be here when you get back.

[FireScreamer]

Can you go over why you came to that conclusion.

[FireScreamer]

1. Either you independently agree with Titus or you are sheeping her. Which is it?

Both.

2. The narna townread. Why?

Narna has been a lurk sac all game. And by "lurk" I mean present just enough to know that he's been around and paying attention (compared to dave who has been MIA), but I really couldn't tell you what thoughts he's had at all (save one--mentioned below).

Then there was the night that Narna got drunk and decided to flurry post. And then immediately sunk back into a nonentity. I fully support getting shithoused and then posting on MS. But if that's your most significant engagement with the thread, I'm going to be suspicious because it artificially allows you to look involved and free-wheeling (loose and carefree = town, right?).

I disagree with this insofar as the Narna read goes. Observing that Comm's push for a vote-to-claim on a TR aligns with how other forums (or whatever) play mafia is not alignment indicative. Yes, town could say it because it is true; but so could scum (because, again, it is true), particularly if they want a good reason to not vote a popular wagon like Comm, regardless of Comm's alignment.

Partly gut. Partly because I don't see him just getting caught up in the same arguments or same logical conclusions as other people. I feel like he's actively trying to sort people and be vocal about his opinions. Admittedly, he hasn't been around for a while (not really that long, the day or so absence seems expected based on his posting pattern), but the last time he posted, he seemed to either have fallen behind or is struggling to keep up. He was also one of the top posters when he was around and is still one of the top posters despite being absent.

The ToS comment falls in line with his prior comments about Comm. Sure, scum can do it, but I also think it shows that Narna is actually trying to figure people out.

Also, just because you're not paying attention to him or don't remember his posts doesn't mean he's a nonentity. It just means you're not paying attention to him or don't remember his posts, which sounds more like a

you

problem.

3. Why is it wrong to "piggyback" an argument against a demonstrably incorrect strategy such as gamblers fallacy?

There is a right answer and a wrong answer

and there are only so many ways to express that.

That is just your opinion. And it's not about whether or not he has the

right

answer or not, it's about whether it's coming from a town mindset.

I don't really think it's wrong to piggyback. It just felt nice to say and I feel like I'm conditioned to scumread it. Either way, I still don't like the way you reacted to him.

4. Show me where I piggyback your umlaut read or reasoning in any way.

Spoiler: Me

How am I supposed to feel about you just bailing at the first sight of a non-PR claim and not just think you're PR-shopping now?

Spoiler: You

UNVOTE: CommKnight
It's too early to lynch and I think we've gotten what we can out of this wagon.

Gotten what we can? Are you claim collecting?

Granted, we could've just come to similar conclusions.

5. You don't know if I've given a scumread based on my own original thought? Go back and actually look. If you still want to defend that statement once you say you have done that be my guest.

It was a throwaway comment since I just wrote up a quick case. You're more than welcome to show it yourself.

6. Why do my statements seem unnatural from a town perspective?

Because your lines give off this weird impression that you know he's town and you want him to go somewhere else, and then you respond to him with a 'you couldn't lynch me if you wanted to' attitude. In most scenarios, I would expect either a 'you're wrong' or a 'EAT ROPE DIE SCUM' mentality, but that's not what you displayed here. I could reasonably expect different reactions (playful joking around or whatever), but this is not one of them.

If you look at the last game you'll find the same warning some one off from tunneling wit the same attitude with me vs Titus. It's not indicative of me being scum. Both arguments you've accused me of piggybacking are just very easy conclusions to come to in the game. I'm not sure what you wanted me to add in either case. Got any other complaints?

[FireScreamer]

Umlaut firescreamer alchemist scumteam

Davesaz sk

Final guess

Wow you are bad at this

[FireScreamer]

Alright. Come back on the Gamma wagon then.

[FireScreamer]

Can you go over why you came to that conclusion.

Your demeanor and attitude seem centered around positions that I think scum are more likely to take, and I looked at your past games that were town and they didn't feel same as this.

So....scum.

Now I await for you to say I am being vague.

Well I am going to need details if I am to refute that. It is fairly nebulous. Which positions?

[FireScreamer]

Well your reasoning is flawed but I cannot explain how without you sharing it. Why doesn't my scum hunting feel genuine? How have I been manipulative? I don't want to dismiss your case I want to correct your case. There are town reasons for everything I've done and I know that because I did them. I also haven't sorted your slot yet and I want you to explain yourself so I have every oppertunity to gut you once my wagon dies should you deserve it.

[FireScreamer]

If you were to flip scum Firescreamer, I am considering Titus deadlock for town. Not because she wouldn't buss, but the way you interact with her makes it clear to me you two aren't scum buddies.

Agreed obviously.

Gamma Emerald is my only strong townread right now.
The wagon on him is gross.

Why do you townread him? Who should I be on instead?

[FireScreamer]

Well your reasoning is flawed but I cannot explain how without you sharing it. Why doesn't my scum hunting feel genuine? How have I been manipulative? I don't want to dismiss your case I want to correct your case. There are town reasons for everything I've done and I know that because I did them. I also haven't sorted your slot yet and I want you to explain yourself so I have every oppertunity to gut you once my wagon dies should you deserve it.

I think some of your questions are leading questions, so thats kind of manipulative, subtle but you know.

The push on Umlaut for his reaction test was bad and not genuine scum hunting imo.
Your interactions with Titus are the most weird thing in this game for me.

I think you should go after me and we do this Fire vs Fire fight that everyone wants.
LET THE PEOPLE HAVE THEIR SHOW!!!!!

We will see soon enough if bringer trumps screamer.

Which questions are leading questions? How are the interactions weird?

I do regret the Umlaut thing once it was explained to me. Can't fault you there.

[FireScreamer]

Yu go oh is trash though

[FireScreamer]

Can't we play Magic instead?

[FireScreamer]

You

[FireScreamer]

It's not cheating if we are everyone

[FireScreamer]

Despite what you may have heard in Sunday school playing with yourself is only healthy

[FireScreamer]

Well your reasoning is flawed but I cannot explain how without you sharing it. Why doesn't my scum hunting feel genuine? How have I been manipulative? I don't want to dismiss your case I want to correct your case. There are town reasons for everything I've done and I know that because I did them. I also haven't sorted your slot yet and I want you to explain yourself so I have every oppertunity to gut you once my wagon dies should you deserve it.

I think some of your questions are leading questions, so thats kind of manipulative, subtle but you know.

The push on Umlaut for his reaction test was bad and not genuine scum hunting imo.
Your interactions with Titus are the most weird thing in this game for me.

I think you should go after me and we do this Fire vs Fire fight that everyone wants.
LET THE PEOPLE HAVE THEIR SHOW!!!!!

We will see soon enough if bringer trumps screamer.

Which questions are leading questions? How are the interactions weird?

I do regret the Umlaut thing once it was explained to me. Can't fault you there.

[FireScreamer]

That's fine. Just making sure it wasn't lost in memes

[FireScreamer]

UNVOTE:

[FireScreamer]

VC 1.15

Official Vote Count

Green Crayons

(5): Brian Skies, Titus, Narna, Alchemist21, CommKnight

CommKnight

(3): Umlaut, RoryMK, FireScreamer

Brian Skies

(2): Green Crayons, Gamma Emerald

FrankJaeger

(1): shannon

Titus

(1): davesaz

FireScreamer

(1): FrankJaeger

Not Voting

(0):

None.

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2017-05-03 20:06:48)

VC 1.16

-

CommKnight

(5): Umlaut, RoryMK, FireScreamer, Brian Skies, shannon

-- L-2 --

Green Crayons

(4): Titus, Narna, Alchemist21, CommKnight

Titus

(1): davesaz

Alchemist21

(1): Green Crayons

FireScreamer

(1): FrankJaeger

Not Voting

(1): Gamma Emerald

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2017-05-03 20:06:48)

VOTE COUNT

FireScreamer

(4): FrankJaeger, CommKnight, Titus, Brian Skies

Gamma Emerald

(4): Narna, FireScreamer, Umlaut, Alchemist21

Alchemist21

(2): Green Crayons, shannon

Titus

(1): davesaz

CommKnight

(1): RoryMK

Not Voting

(1): Gamma Emerald

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2017-05-03 20:06:48)

Enough smart people are telling me Comm isn't scum to where they can't all be partners. So assuming Comm town, me town and GC town.

VOTE: Brian

It's contrary to previous reads lists but clearly it's time for a fresh take.

[FireScreamer]

The Gamma wagon is also pretty clear of names that show up more than once there as well. Was wavering but could go back just as easy.

[FireScreamer]

In fact yeah I'm gonna go back now.
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Gamma

[FireScreamer]

Actually if I know live in assumed Comm town land then I guess it's plausible Gamma was townreading Comm legitly and just articulated it terribly

[FireScreamer]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Brian

[FireScreamer]

I've sort of moved on from even trying to argue commscum now Narna so I don't know how useful that conversation is any more. Catch up and let us know what you think

[FireScreamer]

VOTE: Brian

It's contrary to previous reads lists but clearly it's time for a fresh take.

Are you waiting for BSkies to ask, or can I ask: why?

I have a theory based on the remainder of your post, but not sure if that's what you're actually intending as the basis for your vote.

It's as it seems

[FireScreamer]

Open 680.1: C9++

Mod: ThinkBig
Co-up Mod: Aristophanes

Game Stat

Current Game Stat

: Day 1

Deadline

: (expired on 2017-05-03 20:06:48)

Player List

01. davesaz
02. Narna
03. shannon
04. Firebringer

(replaces FrankJaeger)

05. Alchemist21
06. Green Crayons
07. Brian Skies
08. Titus
09. RoryMK *
10. Gamma Emerald

(replaces Necta)

11. Umlaut
12. CommKnight
13. FireScreamer

* denotes prod

Living Players

Living Players

davesaz
Narna
shannon
Firebringer (replaces FrankJaeger)
Alchemist21
Green Crayons
Brian Skies
Titus
RoryMK
Gamma Emerald (replaces Necta)
Umlaut
CommKnight
FireScreamer

Spoiler: Dearly Departed (0/0)

None

Spoiler: VC Settings

Super awesome Vote Counter!

Links

Day 1 - Post 2

Deadline

2017-05-03 20:06:48 -4.00

Well your reasoning is flawed but I cannot explain how without you sharing it. Why doesn't my scum hunting feel genuine? How have I been manipulative? I don't want to dismiss your case I want to correct your case. There are town reasons for everything I've done and I know that because I did them. I also haven't sorted your slot yet and I want you to explain yourself so I have every oppertunity to gut you once my wagon dies should you deserve it.

I think some of your questions are leading questions, so thats kind of manipulative, subtle but you know.

The push on Umlaut for his reaction test was bad and not genuine scum hunting imo.
Your interactions with Titus are the most weird thing in this game for me.

I think you should go after me and we do this Fire vs Fire fight that everyone wants.
LET THE PEOPLE HAVE THEIR SHOW!!!!!

We will see soon enough if bringer trumps screamer.

Which questions are leading questions? How are the interactions weird?

I do regret the Umlaut thing once it was explained to me. Can't fault you there.

[FireScreamer]

I'm not sure what to make of 1255. There is at least one thing blatantly wrong with it, but I'm not sure what shannon's intent was.
FireScreamer's subsequent rapid ping pong voting is also quite interesting. Panic much?

But what's

really

interesting is the freeze. Is Friday a bad day for most people? Nobody has a comment on the wagon effects of the last 1.5 pages or so?

Obviously Titus isn't going anywhere. I'm disappointed but it does match the general trend that few people believe my cases.
VOTE: FireScreamer

Why is that indicative of panic and not someone working through the full implications of a new read?

[FireScreamer]

Titus if you arnt comfortable with me being voted to a claim I suggest you unvote before Narna votes me.

Not to assume you are uncomfortable with it of course.

[FireScreamer]

@Davesaz, Why are you voting FS?

Because I think he's scum.

Why though

[FireScreamer]

Titus if you arnt comfortable with me being voted to a claim I suggest you unvote before Narna votes me.

Not to assume you are uncomfortable with it of course.

bro I wouldn't vote you so. Pay attention fam.

Oh ill shut my stupid mouth then.

Who is scum?

[FireScreamer]

Let's tipsily make a reads list on the new Commtown assumption mixed in with some what have you done for me lately.

GC
Alchemist/Umlaut/Titus/Comm
Narna/Firebringer/Shannon
Dave/Rory/Brian/Gamma

[FireScreamer]

Umlaut firescreamer alchemist scumteam

Davesaz sk

Final guess

I was initially voting gamma for calling me drunk, but he's been pinging me recently. I'll try to illustrate it better, but d1 is a bit of a crapshoot to me. I'm mostly trying to avoid lynching my townreads.

Umlaut, Davesaz, Gamma, Alchemist?

I'm totally up for OMGUSing dave If yall would be interested.

[FireScreamer]

Shannon, give me a non gamma case built on something other than Gamma assosiatives please.

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

Explain why in depth.

Why does nobody in this town want to actually justify anything they do.

FS, what's up here? Why are you acting so strange around my wagon here?

Regardless I will be able to show you

1. Scum behaviour leading to a wagon leading to a claim
2. The claim post
3. A tonal shift after the claim post involving"Shaping up"

I never got this.

The game was open 680

[FireScreamer]

Let's tipsily make a reads list on the new Commtown assumption mixed in with some what have you done for me lately.

GC
Alchemist/Umlaut/Titus/Comm
Narna/Firebringer/Shannon
Dave/Rory/Brian/Gamma

Can you explain how a new town read on Comm made you want to move from Gamma (equal wagon with you) to Brian (brand new vanity wagon)? Especially when Gamma is in your lowest tier to begin with? The move would make sense if the new revelation was you thought Gamma was town, but that doesn't seem to be the case. And I can't see a town motivation for moving your vote off someone you have as scum to someone who is very unlikely to be lynchable this late in the day.

I saw you admitted all you have on me is an OMGUS. At least you're honest about it.

How does digging in on Gamma help me sort anyone else? I'm transparent that I'd move back to him. It's not that late in the day.

What's the scum motivation for moving my vote off him? If you think we are partners vote for him and ill bus and everything.

[FireScreamer]

Growlithe used intimidate.

[FireScreamer]

Firescreamer i am wondering how to answer your post still.
I feel like I gave it as indepth as I wanted to.

Anything specific you really really want to discuss?

Which questions have I asked that you felt were leading?

[FireScreamer]

It's such a low effort read on a wagon that was already forming as you gave it. You can see why I would want to try and make you work harder at it.

I don't think you really think I'm scum at this point either, yet you are still on me.

[FireScreamer]

They arnt though. And you are putting me in an impossible situation if they are wrong.

[FireScreamer]

I don't view manipulation as a scum tell. It's a method not a motive. What makes you think my attempts to sort you are not genuine?

[FireScreamer]

What's your read on me and why?

Town speckled null. You came in and joined the easiest wagon for self admitted bad reasoning. You are looking at others as well though and are at least being fairly candid in our exchange about your justification on me. I don't understand the hard Gamma townread which pings me.

I think that more data is required and that's why I'm trying to engage you on me.

[FireScreamer]

I don't view manipulation as a scum tell. It's a method not a motive. What makes you think my attempts to sort you are not genuine?

Because I have a gut instinct that everything you say is from a mindset in which you know I am Town.
The words you use and way you present stuff just gives me that vibe.

I hear less of why you doubt my attempts of sorting you and more of convincing me I am wrong.

Have you compared that to how I talk in other town games? I don't think it's different than in the fake day 1 of this game for example.

[FireScreamer]

I'd rather work with players and form town cohesiveness unless I have a hard scum lean on them. Particularly good players. I'm willing to reassess down the line but having a suspicious tone won't help me do what I am trying to do.

[FireScreamer]

In newbie 1777 post game Grey is amazed by how hard I townread him as town despite all of his Grey odd behaviour for example.

I don't see how taking to people as if they are scum helps you as town. Towns need to work together.

[FireScreamer]

You just joined the game FB and the player you replaced didn't add anything I view as AI.

You get the benefit of the doubt for day 1.

[FireScreamer]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Gamma

Brian not getting any bites anyway.

[FireScreamer]

GC whenever you check I'm from vla it's time to wagon Gamma

[FireScreamer]

Why can't you join me on GE Titusa?

Because GE is town and FS isn't.

I'm not though. If there was anyone in the game that I think would misread me in this game it would be you though so I forgive you.

Why did you vote Brian fx?

He's been wagoning townies all game.

[FireScreamer]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: a50

[FireScreamer]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Gamma

[FireScreamer]

Davewagon gentlemen?9

[FireScreamer]

I'm getting drunk and watching anime with a friend. So reply will be sporadic but ill be around for most of the night

[FireScreamer]

I'm getting drunk and watching anime with a friend. So reply will be sporadic but ill be around for most of the night

What series?

VOTE: Titus

VOTE: Green Crayons

VOTE: CommKnight

VOTE: Rory

Brian join me? My gut feels Rory is town, or maybe that's my ego.

I'm still not a fan of Rory, but sure.

VOTE: FireScreamer

These are Brian's votes, now to compare these with FS's reads

I was only looking at votes involved in large wagons.

[FireScreamer]

I'm getting drunk and watching anime with a friend. So reply will be sporadic but ill be around for most of the night

What series?

One Punch Man and Space Dandy

[FireScreamer]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Davesaz

[FireScreamer]

Commit to Space Dandy. It's the winner of the two.

This is a cheer up a sad friend thing so I'm not driving what we do.

[FireScreamer]

I'm getting drunk and watching anime with a friend. So reply will be sporadic but ill be around for most of the night

What series?

VOTE: Titus

VOTE: Green Crayons

VOTE: CommKnight

VOTE: Rory

Brian join me? My gut feels Rory is town, or maybe that's my ego.

I'm still not a fan of Rory, but sure.

VOTE: FireScreamer

These are Brian's votes, now to compare these with FS's reads

I was only looking at votes involved in large wagons.

Well I figured you included that since it was a wagoning vote.

I quoted the VCs I was looking at. I couldn't have been clearer.

[FireScreamer]

The timing of that switch onto me is pretty dumb and there's plenty of time to push your real scumreads.

[FireScreamer]

Yeah it just doesn't make sense.
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Gamma

[FireScreamer]

I don't understand why he waited till now to vote me. I do t understand that from scum either. He votes me as a counterwagon to dave but not to himself?

[FireScreamer]

If I'm not scum Comm then who is?

[FireScreamer]

A wagon on me will not proceed to a lynch. I promise you that.

[FireScreamer]

Vote hopping isn't particularly scummy. It's indicative of not knowing the answer. Even just trying to counterwagon myself isn't scummy and if I wanted to do that I'd have just stayed on GE without weakening my position.

[FireScreamer]

You are just confbiasing page 7 reads that had no foundation Comm. You are derailing the game doing it. I hope you reevaluate how you play after this game if you are town.

[FireScreamer]

Why would you be on Titus with a green flip of me? Of the people on my wagon I'd suspect her the least

[FireScreamer]

How about you vote Gamma today. Scum now has to be terrified of my soft. If I'm still alive tomorrow and gamma flipped green I'll claim page 1.

[FireScreamer]

Seems like a plan that should satisfy you Comm.

[FireScreamer]

I'd still lynch that tbh

[FireScreamer]

Yeah I guess day 2ing it is optimal

[FireScreamer]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Dave

[FireScreamer]

The same principles which make it a good fake claim still apply. The margins are smaller on role blocker because it's significantly less likely. But it's also significantly less likely.

[FireScreamer]

Why?

[FireScreamer]

Oh shannon's slot OMGUSes and we have town refusing to compromise.

Who is the compromise wagon here apart from me?

[FireScreamer]

Oh shannon's slot OMGUSes and we have town refusing to compromise.

Who is the compromise wagon here apart from me?

Davesaz, you're on it. Not thrilled about it but davesaz is scummy.

Do you agree that we likely have to flip Gamma tomorrow?

[FireScreamer]

I will ask for vigs to not kill tonight. We have no cop investigation and you may hit a PR. So abstain from shooting please.

Strongly disagree.

[FireScreamer]

Get well soon TB.

Thanks!!

[FireScreamer]

Ehh this does feel kind of backwards though. I can swing with either of these lynches.

VOTE: Gamma

Narna, I feel lynching Gamma is a mistake. Why would scum gamma claim a role that is likely needing to be lynched in a couple of days?

Lynching Gamma is a mistake because he needs to be lynched?

[FireScreamer]

Narna come back to Dave.

[FireScreamer]

So back to Gamma boyz?

[FireScreamer]

And galz

[FireScreamer]

I'm not a super big fan of the fact that Gamma is on Dave when it comes to lynching dave before Gamma.

Not RB obviously.

[FireScreamer]

MATH POST AHOY

We already know there is no IC, which slightly raises the likelihood of any other town PR. This is accounted for in the numbers below.

Regarding the plausibility of Gamma's claim:

• The probability that the game contains a 1-shot roleblocker is ~4.4%.
  
• If there is a full roleblocker, that probability goes up to ~14%.
  
• There is still a ~28% chance of having a town roleblocker even if there is no town one-shot roleblocker.
  
• I don't know the base rate at which scum claim 1-shot blocker, but maybe someone who's played a lot of C9++ has an idea.
  
• Existence of a full roleblocker is the only thing that
  especially
  corroborates a one-shot roleblocker claim. (Existence of a Mafia roleblocker or godfather also makes a one-shot RB more likely, but only in the sense that it makes any town PR more likely.)

Conditional on the truth of Gamma's claim, these are the multiplicity distributions for each letter:

Spoiler: Here be tables

T count	Prob
0	1.960%
1	11.216%
2	26.472%
3	32.686%
4	21.517%
5	6.148%

C count	Prob
0	40.194%
1	39.968%
2	16.151%
3	3.323%
4	0.349%
5	0.015%

D count	Prob
0	55.439%
1	34.597%
2	8.761%
3	1.127%
4	0.074%
5	0.002%

V count	Prob
0	55.439%
1	34.597%
2	8.761%
3	1.127%
4	0.074%
5	0.002%

M count	Prob
0	87.812%
2	12.103%
4	0.084%
5	0.002%

B count	Prob
2	99.457%
4+	0.543%

Strongest immediate implications of the claim (aside from existence of a full blocker) are:

• The probability of a Mafia roleblocker increases, from ~73% to ~94%.
  
• The probability of only two mafia decreases, from ~27% to ~6.1%.
  
• The already-unlikely events of two cops (8.3%) and two vigs (2.9%) are further lowered, to 3.7% and 1.2% respectively.

Can you explain how the odds of the 1-shot rb existing are 4.4%?
I just assumed since it needs BB it would be (5/100)*(5/100) = .0025 = 0.25% odds.

It isnt 5/100. Its 7 shots at 5/100

[FireScreamer]

It really tickles me that we are back to claiming RB or not RB.

Day one ja vu

[FireScreamer]

Theres a 50% chance. We either have it or we don't.

[FireScreamer]

Can we get an explicit yes or no from Umlaut and Alchemist please.

[FireScreamer]

Also Umlaut since I am pretty explicitly softing at this point can you tell me the odds of BB if either 1 or 2 other non B letters are known.

[FireScreamer]

I don't understand the reluctance to lynch Gamma from you GC.

[FireScreamer]

You expressed you'd be fine with his lynch before the claim and one shot RB is about as close to useless of a PR as we can possibly have. The ceiling here is high and the floor isn't a disaster.

[FireScreamer]

What does waiting till tomorrow accomplish considering Gamma has already said he won't target tonight? It's not like he's cleaned up his play since he claimed. He went from wagoning me over stronger scum reads in 1426 to joining the davewagon that I was on. His reads feel manufactured and not someone actually searching for an answer.

BB is also just particularly unlikely of a scenario. Maybe he was hoping people would townread him for claiming the hard way but I don't.

[FireScreamer]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Gamma

[FireScreamer]

I never said I wouldn't act, I said one shot doesn't mean to act Night one. Nice misrepresentation.

I have no clue but that doesn't mean I'm going to fire a gun into the air to hit a satellite. I want to be extra certain I'm blocking scum.

[FireScreamer]

FireScreamer is OBVIOUSLY trying to put the wheels back on Gamma to save Titus. dave's wagon hit a brick wall and scum need a counter wagon to beat the one on Titus. That's TWO SCUMS I've nailed so far and I'm willing to wager the whole game on them BOTH flipping red.

As opposed to someone wanting someone they have been scumreading for most of the day lynched?

[FireScreamer]

Like I don't think you are trying to defend Gamma as a partner here because of the Shannon/Gamma interaction, but thats a very strange conclusion to leap to. Yes I would prefer a Gamma or a Dave lynch over Titus today, but I don't know how you are that sure I couldn't have come to that conclusion from a town perspective.

[FireScreamer]

FireScreamer is OBVIOUSLY trying to put the wheels back on Gamma to save Titus. dave's wagon hit a brick wall and scum need a counter wagon to beat the one on Titus. That's TWO SCUMS I've nailed so far and I'm willing to wager the whole game on them BOTH flipping red.

As opposed to someone wanting someone they have been scumreading for most of the day lynched?

You missed your chance when you switched off to dave. Now that the dissipation of both Wagons on you and Gamma has resulted in the creation of the wagon on Titus you are trying to rebuild the Gamma wagon (which appears to be much easier to push based on the public opinion).

I reevaluated my reasons for leaving the Gamma wagon and am now returning. Plus I don't like the fact that Gamma is voting Dave.

[FireScreamer]

Like that read is based on the assumption that i've I couldn't push Dave over Titus. Believe me if that was my only goal in life i'm pretty sure I could do it.

[FireScreamer]

that i've come ot the conclusion I couldn't*

[FireScreamer]

I fully understand what he is saying Gamma.

[FireScreamer]

If I was Titus' partner i'd be picking a wagon and commiting to it. There isn't incentive for me to unvote Dave and come back to you because I am pretty sure I could in that scenario get a mislynch on Dave. I don't need to weaken my position by coming back to you. You would also be a tasty mislynch tomorrow. My actions are indicative of someone who genuinely reconsidered their position and is trying to lynch scum.

[FireScreamer]

Is it really worth it to act sub optimally as scum for the minimal amount of towered I get for pointing it out?

[FireScreamer]

Who would you lynch. We are near deadline so be realistic and somewhat flexible

[FireScreamer]

Consider my both on both Dave and Gamma for purposes of last minute wagoning but not Titus.

[FireScreamer]

my vote*

[FireScreamer]

We just have different reads man. If you lynchpool is exactly me and A50 then you are not leaving me much room to work with. I like my pushes better than A50 and you don't have support elsewhere for him. I'm not saying I wouldn't move in a pinch but I don't feel the pinch. Both of my pet wagons have more support but you won't compromise with me because you think i'm scum.

[FireScreamer]

If you find support for A50 thats cool. But otherwise can you just give me the benefit of the doubt for a single day and work WITH me?

[FireScreamer]

Brian or Rory work?

[FireScreamer]

Like even if I started a new wagon here on one of those two with you i'd be leaving a wagon on stronger scumreads with more support. You really dont have the leverage to move me here.

[FireScreamer]

And I am saying what is my incentive to work with you? I don't know your motivations. Leaving a wagon on dave or gamma for a smaller one with you isn't accomplishing anything but budding you. Which isn't my main priority.

[FireScreamer]

If you build something I can get behind to the point where it has more support close to the deadline I won't be adverse to joining it. That's honestly the best I can do.

[FireScreamer]

Fair enough. Well yes. You are around a nullread. I'd be willing to work with you on light scumreads and below or other nullreads in a pinch.

[FireScreamer]

The odds that there is actually a 1 shot RB in the setup are 4% or below. I think that's low enough to just lynch Gamma unless the RB outs themselves. Worse case we get an IC RB.

[FireScreamer]

4% or below with current information. I'm also softing something so if you believe me its even lower. If anyone else is a non RB PR its even lower.

[FireScreamer]

Does gamma when pushed like he was pushed as scum claim like this more than 4% of the time?

That argument might be a bit contrived but you see what I mean.

[FireScreamer]

I'll say the same as I said to Firebringer Comm. Work with me and give me the benefit of the doubt for exactly one day. Vote Gamma. I think he's just scum and I have no idea why we are dancing around it to protect an RB claim.

[FireScreamer]

No one currently townreads me besides Titus.
I am very viable wagon for those who want it.

Not sure why it isn't happening given the amount of people who seem to want it.

Not wagoning you for the same reason i'm not wagoning A50. I have stronger scumreads that I am closer to lynching.

[FireScreamer]

OK, here's a question:

@FS:

I want you to list all 5 lynches you're willing to support twice. Once assuming a Town flip and another assuming a scum flip. Now tell me what effect does that flip have on you reads of everyone else.

I'm willing to support more than 5

[FireScreamer]

I also have no desire to alienate people from voting on my wagons A50. Plus I am very lazy. Pick like 3 of the lynches you believe I would support and i'll do that for you.

[FireScreamer]

Reiterating that I think its just a huge positive EV play to vote Gamma. The fact that his claim is genuine is so unlikely, and in the event that it is we don't even mislynch, we just out a PR of questionable usefulness.

[FireScreamer]

take a long walk off a short pier.

Is this a common expression for people? Because that's fucking hilarious!

It's one I use to say, go fuck yourself.

But seriously, dave and A50 slot are not town at all.

No one is claiming rb, which suggests my gamma read is wrong.

That makes gg unless I am wrong. So I am not surprised I am wagoned now. *shrug*

Sort of makes sense why I am A50's secondary target as well.

[FireScreamer]

I wasn't disturbed by Titus' irresponsiveness, and I hadn't read past that post so I couldn't tell she didn't answer. I was disturbed by GC's phrasing.

So you saw like 300 posts had happened between Titus voting me and you asking GC the question, and it didn't occur to you to:
- read a few more pages to see if it had been resolved
- read a few more pages to see whether anyone else had asked what you were going to ask
- ISO any of the involved players to establish same?

Your iso suggests ... that might actually be the case. It shows you responding to posts in order, regardless of what might have happened in between. OK, I believe you.

VOTE: Alchemist

Can you look back on the Gamma progression on me and comm and come back on the wagon kthanks

inb4 'shannon was bussing gamma and then the wagon got strong and she left it but now she's worried about not being on it so she came back'

I actually sort of was really surprised when Shannon said this as well because I wasn't thinking like that at all.

[FireScreamer]

take a long walk off a short pier.

Is this a common expression for people? Because that's fucking hilarious!

It's one I use to say, go fuck yourself.

But seriously, dave and A50 slot are not town at all.

No one is claiming rb, which suggests my gamma read is wrong.

That makes gg unless I am wrong. So I am not surprised I am wagoned now. *shrug*

Sort of makes sense why I am A50's secondary target as well.

Are you agreeing dave and A50 are scum or just A50?

I hate trying to nail the whole picture in day 1 but yeah I can see how the Dave/A50/Gamma team works.

I was pushing Gamma and Dave. Deadline was approaching. A50 shows up and sets up the Titus alternative because he NEEDS to manufacture a wagon that isnt one of those two. Chainsaws me in the process.

[FireScreamer]

I also have no desire to alienate people from voting on my wagons A50. Plus I am very lazy. Pick like 3 of the lynches you believe I would support and i'll do that for you.

Gamma, dave and myself.

Red flips on any of you would limit my scum pool to the other two right now.

Green on Gamma or Dave would make me scumread you less.

My read on you is the weakest, with a green flip i'd probably still go after Dave or Gamma, but would still look elsewhere too.

[FireScreamer]

The Gamma wagon has so much resistance and counterwagoning when worst case we get an IC out of the deal. Gamma is scum.

[FireScreamer]

The Gamma wagon has so much resistance and counterwagoning when worst case we get an IC out of the deal. Gamma is scum.

What wagon doesn't have resistance right now?

What other wagon has such a good worst case scenario?

[FireScreamer]

The Gamma wagon has so much resistance and counterwagoning when worst case we get an IC out of the deal. Gamma is scum.

What wagon doesn't have resistance right now?

What other wagon has such a good worst case scenario?

What other wagon involves a claim of a role that has a less than 4% chance of being in the setup?

[FireScreamer]

If Gamma is town, the rb will claim, I will likely be mislynched and just say follow FireScreamer. I am aware of that but a deadline scramble is terrible here given the sheer number of wagons today.

This is a good point. Why would scum titus push a wagon like this on town gamma as her alternative where if she is scum and knows gamma is town then she KNOWS the RB will claim and her alternative will fail?

If I was scum in Titus' spot the last thing i'd want to do is trade myself for an RB claim.

[FireScreamer]

Read the last line of that again too.

2.5 days until deadline. So yeah, the VC is a factor.

I predicted this response.

Survival voting is all well and good.

There is a big difference between saying "VOTE: Gamma, better him than me," and saying "VOTE: Gamma, I changed my mind and decided he was scum at the most convenient possible moment."

If Gamma is town, the rb will claim, I will likely be mislynched and just say follow FireScreamer. I am aware of that but a deadline scramble is terrible here given the sheer number of wagons today.

This is a good point. Why would scum titus push a wagon like this on town gamma as her alternative where if she is scum and knows gamma is town then she KNOWS the RB will claim and her alternative will fail?

If I was scum in Titus' spot the last thing i'd want to do is trade myself for an RB claim.

Umlaut explain to me why scum Titus would do this

[FireScreamer]

The Gamma wagon has so much resistance and counterwagoning when worst case we get an IC out of the deal. Gamma is scum.

What's with this talk about the IC?? Isn't the IC -if existent- supposed to be mod-confirmed at the start of the day??

A virtual IC. The 1 shot RB cannot exist without an RB.

[FireScreamer]

Titus is arguing in the post above yours that we should lynch Gamma even in the presence of a full RB claim.

She knows, I know and you know that if an RB claims titus likely is lynched. Scum doesn't make the play she is making.

[FireScreamer]

If Gamma is town, the rb will claim, I will likely be mislynched and just say follow FireScreamer. I am aware of that but a deadline scramble is terrible here given the sheer number of wagons today.

NO RB in their right mind would out to save a ONE-SHOT RB.

What? You wouldn't claim to save a mislynch and confirm 2 people?

[FireScreamer]

This isn't inconsistent with Titus last game.

[FireScreamer]

Can I literally sell another lynch today on someone else besides my tip townreads of gamma and Titus.
Anyone?

Fire, I get gamma looks town by play. I agree with you but I don't think anyone can be rb here.

If there is, we have an innocent child here.

Walk me through this, please.

Gamma town requires a full rb. If gamma flips town, the full rb is an innocent child.

Except he still won't claim, and you know it!

Why wouldn't you claim to prevent a mislynch and clear two town members?

[FireScreamer]

Do you think keeping an RB hidden is worth the same as a confirmed cop with a clear? Not even dead. Just not hidden.

[FireScreamer]

I mean, if the RB won't claim to save Gamma they sure as hell won't claim after the fact! Duh!

So if the RB is at L-1 or in a massclaim they will lie?

[FireScreamer]

Why wouldn't

you

THEY claim to prevent a mislynch and clear two town members?

Because they know they are going to be targeted if they do, and then the Town is down by 2 PRs, one of which is a FULL RB. Thanks, but no thanks.

TWO

CONFIRMED

PLAYERS

[FireScreamer]

The RB claiming with Gamma on the stand turns them into a confirmed one shot cop with a an innocent result on someone that was going to get lynch. If we have even a 1 shot doc in the game as well things get VERY spicy.

[FireScreamer]

And again I reiterate the chances of a 1 shot RB even being in the setup are equal to less than 4%.

[FireScreamer]

Do you think keeping an RB hidden is worth the same as a confirmed cop with a clear? Not even dead. Just not hidden.

He will be dead by the start of D2, GDI. Unless you KNOW there's a Doctor, and you also know the doctor values the RB role in general, so is willing to protect the RB.

By my reads I suspect there is a Mason pair (MM), and then there's a RB+1-x RB (BB), so the chance of a TTT is moderately real. That's TWO SHOTS on the RB, and the Doctor still can't save him.

So even in this scenario we downgrade the RB into an IC1shotRB and both scum have to shoot the same target N1, so lets call it worth a doc protection as well. How much more valuable does the RB need to be?

And this as WORST CASE. Forget the fact that Gamma is SCUM why don't ya.

[FireScreamer]

If the roleblocker manages to get 2 confirms and paint a giant target on his back before the start of night 1 they did enough. Stop trying to provide cover for Gamma's fakeclaim.

[FireScreamer]

Umlaut can I possibly convince you to reconsider and vote gamma? I don't understand what the barriers to it are.

[FireScreamer]

Your case on Titus is that she is building an alternative that can be confirmed at any point if she is scum and they are town. It doesn't make any sense when she had Dave as an option as well.

[FireScreamer]

I mean, if the RB won't claim to save Gamma they sure as hell won't claim after the fact! Duh!

So if the RB is at L-1 or in a massclaim they will lie?

Let me put it this way: >I< wouldn't claim if it's to save a 1-shot RB.

I don't believe you. I've just explained to you why its a fantastic use of a PR. You are trying to provide cover for your scumbuddy.

[FireScreamer]

That'd be trading a full RB for a "very possibly" Goon while buying Gamma one more night at best.

Holy shit that sounds like a FANTASTIC deal. I'd trade actual factual full cop for a goon in a heartbeat. Let alone PLUS a confirmation of another player.

[FireScreamer]

You severely overvalue PRs, severely undervalue limiting scum night options or you are scum.

[FireScreamer]

Alright if you are the RB and you let gamma be lynched I'll know that it wasn't my bad play that wrecked the game but yours.

[FireScreamer]

List for me an average case game for the RB that is better than a day 1 scum lynch and confirming 2 townies.

[FireScreamer]

Not to mention that if you are town and scum want to go RB hunting they are going for you first now anyway after that level of softing it.

[FireScreamer]

List for me an average case game for the RB that is better than a day 1 scum lynch and confirming 2 townies.

One where they live to prevent a scum kill in LyLo and result in a Town win

This is average case for an RB right?

[FireScreamer]

Lets say all your reads are right A50. Titus is scum and there is a mason pairing in the game and thats it.

So the RB claims. Titus is lynched. We now have a day 1 scum lynch and a 70 page day of assosiatves to pick from. The RB is killed in the night. Targeted by Mafia and SK.

Day 2 begins. There are now as many confirmed town as scum and a day of data to analyse with a red flip.

This scenario seems bad to you how?

[FireScreamer]

It's funny though that you believe I softed RB and still want to lynch Gamma!! I'm wondering how your brain works.

No I think you are trying to provide your scumbuddy gamma with as much cover as possible and that involves softing to scare townies while at the same time being adamant that you are not to avoid you attaching yourself at the hip to him.

[FireScreamer]

And I'm not claiming anything, btw. I'm neither confirming nor denying being one role or another.

Tomorrow might be another day though.

This is manipulative softing and i've already explained your motivation for it.

[FireScreamer]

Clearly enough people believe the way I do on this issue A50. There have been plenty of RB or not RB claims. So why would scum titus build a counterwagon to themselves that could crumble at any point?

[FireScreamer]

And I'm not claiming anything, btw. I'm neither confirming nor denying being one role or another.

Tomorrow might be another day though.

This is manipulative softing and i've already explained your motivation for it.

Agreed.

Why couldn't you post like this at daystart?

I wonder where Gamma is.

You had da lurks at gamestart. People in glass houses.

His participation in this game has plummeted since the claim. L A Y I N G L O W.

[FireScreamer]

I'm glad A50 replaced in. He's dragging Titus and FS through the mud and they don't even understand how.

Titus today, FS claims tomorrow and if he doesn't cliam PAGE 1 of D2.. He dies. No exceptions.

@Full RB, stay hidden. We're NOT lynching Gamma today and getting yourself killed in a game with likely zero doctors is not a bright move. Those who have toyed with the RB/Not RB shit will face trial by fire tomorrow when Titus flips red.

I said I would claim page 1 on the sole condition of a Gamma green flip and you working with me today.

[FireScreamer]

Please come to Gamma FB

[FireScreamer]

VOTE: Titus Eh, Titus isn't high in my TR's currently. So I'll compromise Titus over Gamma. I also find it funny FS thinks the RBer is useless. You do realize it can counter the scum roleblocker or stop mafia/SK kill right? In a game with limited town PRs, roleblocker is one of the few roles we can at least make use of.

I'm glad A50 replaced in. He's dragging Titus and FS through the mud and they don't even understand how.

Titus today, FS claims tomorrow and if he doesn't cliam PAGE 1 of D2.. He dies. No exceptions.

@Full RB, stay hidden. We're NOT lynching Gamma today and getting yourself killed in a game with likely zero doctors is not a bright move. Those who have toyed with the RB/Not RB shit will face trial by fire tomorrow when Titus flips red.

[FireScreamer]

From a compromise lynch to this will happen WHEN titus flips red.

???

[FireScreamer]

The reason I started on Gamma in the first place was an awfully manufactured and ill reasoned townread on Comm.

[FireScreamer]

A50 would you lynch Comm?

[FireScreamer]

Titus would you?

[FireScreamer]

VOTE: Comm

I think its important that I don't come off of Gamma for this FB but I explicitly support this and would switch if I had to.

[FireScreamer]

I am honestly only voting him because his posts lately are really bad.

I mean were they ever not? Is this a "I think his early posting is good" or a "I havn't read his early posting cause I replaced in"?

[FireScreamer]

I mean were they ever not? Is this a "I think his early posting is good" or a "I havn't read his early posting cause I replaced in"?

I didn't read his early stuff, so I am just assuming they aren't this bad.

I'd read them.

He voted someone to push them to claim despite them being his top townread.

[FireScreamer]

Nah, no one answers questions. That's how you get wagoned.

This is 70 pages and needs to stop.

Lynch me or lynch Gamma fire.

If this goes to 100 pages D1, I am subbing out.

It wont. Everyone still posting is just dug in and circlejerking till some of the less active players show up.

[FireScreamer]

Come back to Gamma GC.

[FireScreamer]

I think a gamma vote would be -1. I'd double check yourself first though or wait for a VC.

Who would you vote if that wasn't a factor?

Pedit: Oh ok.

[FireScreamer]

Brian bb come to the Gamma party.

[FireScreamer]

And thats a hammer.

[FireScreamer]

We shall see who I want to lynch tomorrow.

[FireScreamer]

A50 you are a little late buddy. Can't compromise a hammer.

[FireScreamer]

Feel free to talk about your Narna, Rory and GC reads though. I'm riveted.

[FireScreamer]

A50 status at realizing we pushed through his chainsaw : Shook

Would be surprised if he posted in twilight tbh.

[FireScreamer]

A50 status at realizing we pushed through his chainsaw : Shook

Would be surprised if he posted in twilight tbh.

We have time. Let's wait on Brian to catch up and Almost to respond to what we have. Twilight gloating doesn't help town scumhunt unless there's actual scumhunting going on.

Sure. I'm probably going to be deliberately vague on how I'd feel on either flip for obvious reasons.

[FireScreamer]

Day one only took about 170 pages to be fair.

[FireScreamer]

Explain Brian.

[FireScreamer]

Why is that dumb? Pick only a couple of the levels if you like.

Also three different people have now asked you the same question and you are ignoring them. Do I need to make it 4?

[FireScreamer]

Gamma you have been hammered. If you are flipping green now is the time to impart your wisdom.

[FireScreamer]

Sure. Adding more people to the questioning pool will not make me answer the question

Way to be accountable to your own vote.

[FireScreamer]

Brian SKiles you say?

[FireScreamer]

Be seeing you

[FireScreamer]

A50 status at realizing we pushed through his chainsaw : Shook

Would be surprised if he posted in twilight tbh.

You be like...

Got ya

[FireScreamer]

And I'm not claiming anything, btw. I'm neither confirming nor denying being one role or another.

Tomorrow might be another day though.

This is manipulative softing and i've already explained your motivation for it.

Agreed.

Why couldn't you post like this at daystart?

I wonder where Gamma is.

I was asleep. Look at my signature.

Nah. You have the second largest postcount in the game but since you claimed you shut all the way up.

Again. The hammer has come down on you. Stop defending yourself.

[FireScreamer]

And thats a hammer.

I don't think so

RoryMK, Alchemist21, Narna, FireScreamer, Titus, GC, Brian

[FireScreamer]

I was leading it. I just took a vacation on dave island.

[FireScreamer]

Why is that dumb? Pick only a couple of the levels if you like.

Also three different people have now asked you the same question and you are ignoring them. Do I need to make it 4?

Sure. Adding more people to the questioning pool will not make me answer the question

Way to be accountable to your own vote.

Brian SKiles you say?