Team Mafia 2018: White Flag — Day Six

[northsidegal]

hi all! i haven't played with a lot of you but i've stalked games with almost all of you in them!

VOTE: postie

[northsidegal]

I was honestly expecting the thread to be full of spam by now what the heck is this guys

not sure about anyone else, but i haven't actually gotten a game start pm yet

[northsidegal]

that's posturing if i've ever seen it.

VOTE: llamarble

[northsidegal]

VOTE: northsidegal

What

To be clearer: why is your reaction not a) asking Llamarble what he's talking about, or b) voting me to put extra pressure on me?

i didn't think there was any ambiguity as to what he was talking about. it seems pretty obvious to me that he's saying that you're already obvscum, and i think entering the thread like that with a forced read is a weak entrance. my vote was already on you, for one, and for two i thought a better place for pressure was on llamarble.

i'm not really sure what your issue here is.

[northsidegal]

i didn't believe that he really found something, hence my saying that his entrance was forced (kind of like how your questions feel).

[northsidegal]

i didn't believe that he really found something, hence my saying that his entrance was forced (kind of like how your questions feel).

Okay, and the scum motivation behind him lying about having found something is what?

he forces a read to a) pretend like he's generating useful content and b) stagnate things by ending rvs early. moreover, i think in general a forced entrance like that is just more likely to come from self-conscious scum than from town. that's not to say that i believe that he's necessarily scum or that any of those were necessarily his strategy – just that i think it's likely enough to warrant moving my vote while we're still in rvs.

[northsidegal]

Did you think that no one would question him or did you think that he was banking on never having to explain himself? I'm not really following.

where are you going with this? yeah, he probably would explain himself eventually. i expected the explanation to be "i forced a read to get us out of rvs". none of this factored into my decision in the slightest.

[northsidegal]

Not liking how nsg solely focuses on the postie responses and that feels solid enough to go off of.

Would also like to know whose teammates are reading this game and whose are likely to give input d1

so you think that i'm both tryharding and that i'm trying to coast by solely focusing on questions?
don't you think it's a little early in the game to be saying that, especially given that like four people have posted so far?

not sure if all of my teammates will be reading this game but i know a few will and will probably share their thoughts with me.

Put it this way:
If you believe Llamarble hasn't found anything and is fishing for reactions, it makes sense to help him out by voting me or pretending you know what it is or even just staying quiet and letting things play out.
If you believe Llamarable really believes they've found something obvscummy, the logical thing to do is to ask what it is, in case it actually is something that makes sense.
You did neither or these things and instead instantly assumed he couldn't have found anything and attacked him for it. In what world does that make sense? In one where you know he can't have a good reason, because you know I'm town.

what difference does it make between helping him out with his pressure on you and voting him to put pressure on him? there's nothing to say that following him is the "logical" thing to do rather than pressuing him. i assumed he didn't have anything because, looking over your posts myself, there really wasn't anything there that could reasonably be interpreted as a scumslip. sure,

maybe

being the first to the thread opening could be interpreted that way, but i put more weight into awkward rvses being scum indicative than that tell anyways.

this is really forced.

[northsidegal]

@lla – if i was scum i definitely would have lurked out the beginning of the game – activity is probably, for the most part, meaningless (so is everything else you mentioned).

I think you were trying to find things where they aren't, and when directly engaged with Postie regressing to a reactive scum playstyle. These are two separate things, that I'll admit I'm still not entirely sure isn't just me throwing things at the wall for the sake of a comparatively dull game, but regardless the general vibe is scummy against a really townvibing Postie.

you think that

i'm

the one who was trying to find things where there wasn't anything? please point to where you think this happened.

[northsidegal]

Two votes instead of one creates more pressure and more focused pressure.

and? one vote on someone i think is scummy is worth more than one vote on someone i don't have a read on.

I can understand this and along with the stuff you said earlier about believing Llamarble was giving a sort-of "token read" (if that's along the lines of what you were saying?) I can

kinda

see how your reaction could come from town but at the same time
it's just really fucking weird way to react and your actions make a lot more sense from scum than town to me

it's literally not a weird way to react in the slightest – after making a basically random vote, someone came in with what i thought was a scummy enough entrance to move my random vote to a low-information vote.

this is really forced.

Explain?

you're making a mountain out of a molehill. it doesn't feel like this line of questioning comes from you actually trying to figure anything out, it seems like it comes from you

feeling the need

to push someone for something. you made the argument that i'm scum because i didn't sheep someone on his incredibly obvious fake reasons vote – that alone should be ridiculous enough to anyone paying attention.

[northsidegal]

postie, what does the rest of your team think about this interaction?

[northsidegal]

he forces a read to a) pretend like he's generating useful content and b) stagnate things by ending rvs early. moreover, i think in general a forced entrance like that is just more likely to come from self-conscious scum than from town. that's not to say that i believe that he's necessarily scum or that any of those were necessarily his strategy – just that i think it's likely enough to warrant moving my vote while we're still in rvs.

Alright, I'm not convinced this is a scum post as you are still relatively new to the site and thus, the game. Care to talk some things through with me?

Why would Llama want to attract so much attention so early on as you've mentioned? As scum it could be a really bad play in an attempt to draw suspicion on Postie, Llamarble knows whoever he'd have to play this perfectly as to not risk it backfiring. A very dodgy move as scum unless he's intentionally trying to have people think he can't be scum for that exact reason. As town, it could be an attempt to get this moving and test reactions, or he could legitmately have a reason to suspect Postie right now. For these reasons I don't particulary lean either way on thiese actions of his, though gun to head I'd say town.

like other people have said, llamarble is pretty experienced and apparently hard to lynch – i don't doubt that as scum he'd be willing to make a bold play / put himself out there. you also have to keep in mind that this entire conversation is within the context of

my rvs vote

– i was hardly making a case against him, and if i was i certainly wouldn't be using that reasoning.

This brings me to my next point.

How is generating content stagnating the game. The RVS is named that, because it's, well, random. Random votes don't generate alignment-indicative content, anything moving away from the RVS is something that is generating content from which we can try to guess people's alignments. I don't really think your second point holds up, do you see what I mean?

well, that's where we slightly disagree. the r in rvs stands for random, yes, but it's really much better played as a "low-information" voting stage, and that's how i like to look at it. yes, town will eventually need to move out of rvs to get the actual game going, but this process should come naturally. every time i've seen people try to instantly force things out of rvs (eg self-voting just to explain how it's nai or whatever), all it ends up with is a conversation that doesn't really end up going anywhere. to move the game out of the low-information voting stage you need actual information, which i didn't think llamarble actually had.

[northsidegal]

the same thing i said to wgeurts largely applies @tsq with regards to rvs.

@lla – if i was scum i definitely would have lurked out the beginning of the game – activity is probably, for the most part, meaningless (so is everything else you mentioned).

Wifom self meta ahoyhoy.

So, VOTE: Northsidegal

wasn't really meant to be self-meta, was more meant of an example of what i think scum would have done and how i don't think llamarble's tells really mean anything.

[northsidegal]

Reads:
Llamarble somewhat misguided town, his scumread on Postie is p silly, but I feel like he's right on the money with Marqius, could also be right about Dunnstral's vote on Marquis being a bus
VOTE: Marquis

what would indicate to you that he could be right about dunnstral bussing marquis? do you have a read on dunnstral from his one post / did something about it look like bussing to you? i'm not convinced you actually have anything here.

This shows your bias towards how you generally see these players in relation to what alignment they could be and nothing more. That said, you are all over the place and I can see where this would come from Scum trying to WIFOM Town into oblivion.

you realize that the entire middle block of what you quoted was just the playerlist as it appears in-order, right?

So are these TRs or SRs of these players?

i haven't played with postie before and haven't really read any of the games she's been in in-depth, so i don't really have anything to compare her play this game to – with that being said, i think her forced line of questioning is more likely to come from scum than town, so she's a scumlean for now. marquis i think is more likely to be town as of now, although i'd like to wait a bit to see how things develop before elaborating on that.

[northsidegal]

-cracks knuckles- So here's where I sit. I really don't like the fact that Lycanfire just walks in, drops a vote and then walks out without so much as a "hi, bye, I'm caught up," nothing. So you can insert the grandpa from the Simpsons entering and exiting the building gif here and I'll need some clarification on that vote at some point, Lycan. Marquis is going in my null section for now. I'll do a double over later tonight and get with my team on things for business going forward. ActionDan has town vibes. Marble is on my town list for now.

dunnstral did the exact same thing – did you not notice or is there something different about the two to you?

a) your points to wgeurts were in no way responsive to my argument.

b) isn't "what I think scum would have done as a defense for why those saying that me doing the opposite is scummy" like LITERALLY the definition of wifomy self meta?

a) i disagree in that it's best to exit rvs as quickly as possible – if done unnaturally i think it could very likely lead to a stagnant game, as i said. it seemed to me like you were both making the point in that rvs should be exited as quickly as possible.

b) it wasn't a defense of

myself

– it was actually a defense of postie. llamarble wasn't pushing me as being scum for being in the thread early (to my memory), he was saying that postie's comments about being early to the thread were likely to make her scum. it really wasn't meant to be about me at all.

[northsidegal]

No, my argument is and was that your attack didn't make any sense because a town player attempting to create information by making plays would look similar to "trying to force it" as scum or whatever you accused them of.

calling it an "attack" is hardly accurate. the only reason i ever even ended up talking so much about it was because i got cross-examined. also, if i'm understanding you correctly and you're saying that scum forcing an rvs read would look the exact same as town doing so – if i have any faith in myself as a scumhunter and someone who can distinguish town from scum, i just have to disagree.

I then made a related comment which is that frequently I see an attempt to use rvs to divest themselves from their actions and avoid accountability, which is why I don't like your comment about how your vote is a rvs one.

i mean, it was – i'm not sure how else you would expect me to describe it. "low-information vote" is more accurate, but i think they're largely synonymous.

Frankly, I'm not really sure how you could have thought any of the stuff you just said about rvs was relevant to what I thought was bad about that interaction.

you both responded to the same post (28), you made the point that town is best served by leaving rvs as soon as possible, wgeurts made the point that generating content isn't stagnating the game (even if it's forced content). when i responded to wgeurts i responded to both ideas (at least, it semed to me that i did). it doesn't seem that far-fetched to me to see the connection between the two, really.

[northsidegal]

i have some questions from myself and from my team:

@dan – mathdino wants to know why you're townreading quick, he thinks quick was the most likely of his team to pick scum.

@gamma – most of your reads seem to come from other players – do you have any reads of your own?

@quick – thoughts on the votes on the marquis wagon?

@marquis – who are you townreading?

[northsidegal]

by the way, anyone else feel like 179 is a really weird thought? it's hard to put into words – it kind of feels like a pointless thing to say / comment on, maybe.

[northsidegal]

@quick has creature been following / looking at this game? if so i'd like to hear at least one or two thoughts from him.

[northsidegal]

That's a laugh.. I've never played with mathdino, how the hell would he know?

Like what do I think of specific votes on marquise? Which ones do you want me to look at? I was doing a meta analysis, not looking at specific instances.

i'm not entirely sure where he gets his meta. he wanted your thoughts on all of them individually.

[northsidegal]

@lycan, who are your top townreads so far?

Also some questions from the aforementioned teammate: why didn't you believe nsg's self-meta, and why did you write Marquis off as null?

I dont believe anyones self meta, especially when its presented in as an attempt to answer an attack on them.

i'd like to say again that i haven't done any self-meta this game, nor was the comment tsq is interpreting as self-meta an attempt to answer an attack on me – it was a defense of postie and a statement to llamarble that i didn't think his tells made any sense. the "if i were scum" was meant as a turn of phrase as to what i think scum would be more likely to do moreso than a comment relating to myself.

Full stop right here. There is pretty much NOTHING that says you can use to conclude that was a bus vote. It's a gut read and a stretch at that. There are reasons to Scum read you if you say stuff like this.

i think this is a mistake, and i think you made the same mistake in your initial analysis of the wagon – just because dunnstral didn't say anything else or other people didn't make a lot of comments on their votes, that doesn't mean that there's nothing to analyze. the lack of comment is information in itself. i agree with others in that your analysis in 199 is largely superficial, but i'm not entirely sure how it relates to your alignment as of yet.

NSG, if you were scum, how do you think that post of yours would have been different? (ended after 'entrance was forced?' or another thought to make it a more complete post? Or simply the same?)

yeah, i doubt i would have put the comment to postie there in an effort to try to avoid conflict. (i have now done self-meta, at someone else's explicit request).

@cogito ergo sum, who are you scumreading and why?

[northsidegal]

also, i'm pretty much of the opposite opinion to dan when it comes to the tsq/gamma interaction – i think gamma's suspicion on dunn is very easily explained by a confusion of the order of events when it comes to dunn's vote vs the rest of the marquis wagon whereas i think tsq's push there feels opportunistic. mathdino agrees with me here, and he thinks the same "predatory" or "gotcha fishing"-style was visible in tsq's posts to me.

[northsidegal]

i wasn't saying that naked votes are town, i was just saying that there are always questions you can ask about something, no matter how minimal the content. it's more theory than game relevant so i'm not going to go much further into it.

[northsidegal]

VOTE: Postie

I think she deserves votes. the way she's stepping back and referencing her teammates just feels scum driven to me

Completely disagree. Your vote should be on GE, not Postie.

Why GE? Postie feels like they're too worried about the wording of their post.

i think it's more of a sentiment of "reading dunnstral's posts, from what he's saying his vote should be on ge, not postie", which is what i was feeling with regards to that.

@dan, will get to a response in a second

[northsidegal]

also, i'm pretty much of the opposite opinion to dan when it comes to the tsq/gamma interaction – i think gamma's suspicion on dunn is very easily explained by a confusion of the order of events when it comes to dunn's vote vs the rest of the marquis wagon whereas i think tsq's push there feels opportunistic. mathdino agrees with me here, and he thinks the same "predatory" or "gotcha fishing"-style was visible in tsq's posts to me.

I had included him in my list of people I was planning on pushing on before that and that is not the only reason for me voting him. dig deeper here. my issue is not that the vote can't be explained, but rather that the vote needs to be explained, because he was still pushing it as the only thing in the game that he was actively pushing on. the fact that hes still talking about a naked rvs vote when there is 10+ pages of content to dig into as his most interested in the game and most active sorting attempt is what I am scum reading, not the fact that he was wrong about it. (although that certainly doesn't help the point.) I think this is abundantly clear from my posts.

will also respond to this in a second – first, though, are you still scumreading me? this question isn't as banal as it may seem, it's important.

[northsidegal]

also, i'm pretty much of the opposite opinion to dan when it comes to the tsq/gamma interaction – i think gamma's suspicion on dunn is very easily explained by a confusion of the order of events when it comes to dunn's vote vs the rest of the marquis wagon whereas i think tsq's push there feels opportunistic. mathdino agrees with me here, and he thinks the same "predatory" or "gotcha fishing"-style was visible in tsq's posts to me.

I agree that Gamma probably thought Dunn's vote on Marquis came in the middle of the wagon or at least not the first vote (although I wouldn't say that suspicion on Dunn for this is completely warranted per se), but I disagree with you and Dino that TSQ was predatory at any point.

Do you (or MathDino if he's following along) have thoughts about my 282 which is largely outside TSQ/Gamma interactions?

you'll have to let me know if i'm misunderstanding your point here, but i just don't think the inconsistencies you've pointed out are strongly scum-indicative. gamma's posts have been pinging me so far as more "disorganized" than "scum". it's not a hard townread, i just don't get any scum feelings from his posting as of yet. mathdino townreads gamma for 285 – he says that that kind of twisty, kind of weird logic more often comes from town than from scum.

also, i'm pretty much of the opposite opinion to dan when it comes to the tsq/gamma interaction – i think gamma's suspicion on dunn is very easily explained by a confusion of the order of events when it comes to dunn's vote vs the rest of the marquis wagon whereas i think tsq's push there feels opportunistic. mathdino agrees with me here, and he thinks the same "predatory" or "gotcha fishing"-style was visible in tsq's posts to me.

I had included him in my list of people I was planning on pushing on before that and that is not the only reason for me voting him. dig deeper here. my issue is not that the vote can't be explained, but rather that the vote needs to be explained, because he was still pushing it as the only thing in the game that he was actively pushing on. the fact that hes still talking about a naked rvs vote when there is 10+ pages of content to dig into as his most interested in the game and most active sorting attempt is what I am scum reading, not the fact that he was wrong about it. (although that certainly doesn't help the point.) I think this is abundantly clear from my posts.

not really going to go into a defense of gamma here, just going to say that i understand a bit more where your push is coming from now. if you're wondering why i asked you if you're still scumreading me, it's because the way you're talking to me in this post is very different than how you were talking to me earlier in the game and also to how i've noticed you talk to people you're pushing on / scumreading – if you had said that you were still scumreading you i would have taken this post as scum without genuine reads trying to convince someone on a push.


also saving this votecount to come back to look at later – it's an interesting one:

Spoiler:

Votecount 1.8

Gamma Emerald(3)

~ Thestatusquo, EddieFenix, ActionDan

Postie(2)

~ Tchill13, Dunnstral

Marquis(2)

~ Llamarble, wgeurts

Llamarble(2)

~ northsidegal, Cogito Ergo Sum

Cogito Ergo Sum(2)

~ Lycanfire, Sauce

Thestatusquo(1)

~ Gamma Emerald

Tchill13(1)

~ LicketyQuickety

northsidegal(1)

~ Marquis

LicketyQuickety(1)

~ Postie


Not Voting (0):

VOTE: cogito ergo sum

[northsidegal]

llamarble, could you talk a bit about your cogito ergo sum and actiondan reads? i would personally have both of them swap sides on that list there – dan i've gotten some pretty good town feelings from and my teammates largely agree, whereas i'm not really seeing cogito ergo sum's contribution to the game as of yet.

[northsidegal]

@cogito ergo sum, who are you scumreading and why?

---

You mentioned you would have lurked as scum, that's self-meta friendo

first of all – no, it isn't, and i've already explained this. if you have something to say in response then say so. second – is there some reason you commented on this? does this relate to your read on me in any way? because all i see from this is someone

looking

for something to make a response to rather than someone actually having something to respond to, if that makes sense.

@gamma, do you make your posts chronologically? that is, do you type a response to a post before reading the rest of the posts in the thread after it?

I am aware of that, but the votes of llamarble and LQ just feel lazy there, for lack of a better word. I just don't understand how they could read what's happened in the last day and think "huh, the best thing to do here is to vote the lurker with no explanation"

looking at llamarble's reads list, the majority of his scumreads are among the lurkier / lower-content players. don't you think it's possible someone could be reading the game and be coming to the conclusion that the active players are more likely town?


mathdino has some thoughts he would like me to share. first, he says that he's almost positive that sauce is town, having played with him. second, to sauce, he says to stop posting information instead of analysis "bs" and to start scumhunting, because he knows that you can do better than this.
for my own quick thoughts, i think eddie is probably town, for something i'll quote in a second.

[northsidegal]

@cogito ergo sum, who are you scumreading and why?

---

responding to things on this most recent page first:

Why? Do you think I should be voting you...? Shouldn't you know that's wrong from your point of view?

This is also in response to other people saying I should be voting Gamma, I see why he looks scummy but it isn't enough for me, I expect them to look like this as town, kind of scummy and awkward, I feel like I always use them as a scapegoat when I'm scum myself for this reason (not sure if gamma has realized this). I don't really scumread them.

(responding to this because i expressed this same opinion that dunnstral is responding to)
i personally didn't intend it as a statement of

recommendation

that it would be a good idea to vote gamma – i was pointing out that your words and your actions didn't line up, and that from what you posted, from your point of view it should have made more sense for you to vote gamma.

why not mention that you expect gamma to be acting this way as town in your initial post? that seems like a relevant qualifier given how scummy you called him.

I think Marquis wagon didn't really have a reason to fall apart and I'm not swayed either way by any of their posting, I'd get that going again (I don't really agree with the wagon on tchill either)

could you explain your tchill townread to me? i share the view with my teammates that he's definitely on the scummier side and i'd be fine voting there as the day goes on.

NSG

- I feel like Llamarble's tell wasn't something concrete- but my opinion on

Marquis

@NSG

Why the question of "who are my townreads?" in particular?

the entire theory behind what you're saying in 225 relies on llamarble being town, and you making that point requires a strong townread on him – i wanted to confirm that this was what you thought without explictly mentioning that. i can tell that things maybe kind of trailed off towards the bottom of that post there, but his position there and what you said about him gives me serious pause, along with the fact that cogito ergo sum is nowhere to be seen here.

[northsidegal]

why isn't lycanfire in the running for that last spot?

[northsidegal]

Okay then you should know that RC is pretty fucking great at town, which seems at odds with you criticising me for referencing my teammates, no?
The fact you dodged giving an opinion on RC's townplay here after I explicitly asked you for one also also has me concerned; it feels like you had suspicions about where I could be going with this and wanted to avoid getting yourself into hot water.

postie, if we can't take it for granted that you're town then obviously we can't take it for granted that the opinions of your teammates are coming from a town perspective. am i misunderstanding what you're saying here?

[northsidegal]

huh, i was typing up a response but then it kind of clicked and i think i get what you're saying a bit more now. yes, from an outside perspective we have no reason to trust your teammates' reads in particular, but rc being good at town provides a plausible explanation as to why you might be relying on the reads of your teammates a lot.

[northsidegal]

i mean, this is far and away the easiest game to catch up on, but that's neither here nor there.

i don't think there's a point in asking you specific questions if you haven't read the thread at all – they'd inevitably be leading questions, wouldn't they? can you just start reading the thread?

[northsidegal]

@cogito ergo sum, who are you scumreading and why?

[northsidegal]

I'm willing to call Lycan's 430 town. I understand a couple of reservations people have with it, (6 scum reads, CES not being mentioned etc.) but it looks, feels, and has meaty arguments that flow and read town.

could you go into more depth specifically about what makes it town from you? the same question goes out to others who expressed the same opinion because i feel like townreading that post is a mistake and it's a mistake that i definitely would have made in the past, where just because a post looks like it's contributing a lot and people add to the discussion overall, that makes it town. i'm not saying that's what you're thinking but i don't see much else of a reason to townread it, and i think that the reality of the situation is that the inconsistencies between 225 and 430 are consequential enough to say that one of the two was faked / wasn't made coming from a town perspective.


i'm having trouble getting a solid read on quick. on an objective level i'd say he's been scummy, but i keep wondering how much of that comes from playstyle and mathdino says that he's town for sure. i also get the gut feeling that this is one of those games where town is actually on track when it comes to finding scum but ends up getting distracted by the townies who do outrageous things and end up getting lynched (you can all probably can think of a game like this), and quick feels like he might be that outrageous townie.

[northsidegal]

@postie, if you're interested i was townreading eddie earlier on for this:

by the way, anyone else feel like 179 is a really weird thought? it's hard to put into words – it kind of feels like a pointless thing to say / comment on, maybe.

I was wondering who else was going to pick up on that.

the fact that he noticed this, didn't make a post about it and then made this comment about it just instinctually doesn't feel like the kind of thing scum would even think to fake. granted, there's always the chance that it wasn't faked and eddie could still be scum – scum still notice inconsistencies or a really weird tone even if they know that someone is town (and perhaps especially if they know that it's coming from their buddy). there's also the chance that i'm underselling eddie's scumgame, which i'm unfamiliar with.

on a reread of his iso perhaps this is too minor to justify more than a slight townlean, but i'm still not convinced on him being scum and i still think there are far more likely scum candidates.

[northsidegal]

gamma, i don't mean any offense by this but your thoughts in 530 seem superficial.

Proposal for a set of acronyms:

• MTT - my teammates think
• IDCAWYTMTBYMBLTEYPWEG - I don't care about what your teammates think because you might be lying to enhance your posts with extra gravitas
• WYELT?EAIFTR..R?! - Would you, ergo, lynch this? Ergo as in 'for these reasons.. Really?!
• TYRUF? - Then Y R U Frontin'?

I like these acronyms, gives an air of keeping things brief, not getting bogged down in wordiness.

i mean, do you

really

think that these acronyms serve a functional purpose or that people were going to adopt them? i'm having trouble believing that that's a real thought that you had, and the same applies to a few other things you said there.

[northsidegal]

What do I gain from being "opportunistic"?

obviously you gain a townread, if i'm any sort of example.

[northsidegal]

Northsidegal, have you compared Marquis' early posting here to his posts in Signs and Void?

i haven't yet, although i've been meaning to – i thought marquis was a newer player until you pointed out that he was in the previous team mafia. i hope you realize that my question towards you isn't a questioning of your marquis read – i'm trying to figure out if you're actually reading the game at all, because as far as i can tell you haven't expressed any other scumreads nor any clear townreads.

VOTE: wgeurts

yeah i should have took my vote off postie apologies for that.

any particular reason for voting the person being replaced? by the way, tchill has been active elsewhere on site but not here.

VOTE: tchill

Nothing concrete yet. I want Llamarble's opinion. I'm still trying to reconcile my primary scumreads (i.e. only one of you or LQ). I think Postie is more town for reasons, some questions I have to respond to, others I think are inane and I will be ignoring. I have a few thoughts, but two/all three of those jumped out at me in a way I usually see into other dimensions to find scum. Will explain everything.

i'd appreciate if you would respond to 436 and 551 and, if you don't plan to, explain why they're presumably "inane".

[northsidegal]

hey dunn do you have time to talk?

[northsidegal]

if so then please respond to 436.

[northsidegal]

basically a prodge, will post later today. confident in calling sauce's slot basically conftown.

[northsidegal]

yeah, catching up now. sorry guys, i'll admit to kind of putting this game on the backburner.

[northsidegal]

i actually seriously for real this time promise to start playing the game again. full disclosure – i didn't actually catch up the last few times i said i would or over the night phase. i am currently on page 38.

[northsidegal]

Me and mathdino both agree that llamarble was killed to break up town cohesion, and that the post we should all be looking at is 875. To that end, he thinks that postie vs tsq is a pointless debate to have as that'll be resolved itself as the game goes on.

[northsidegal]

someone please question me so that i have a starting off point to get back into this game – it's been so long that i don't really remember the lines of questioning that i had going (if they would even still be relevant).

i think i'm still at postie, actiondan, ranmaru definitely town, quick and gamma questionably town, cogito ergo sum and lycanfire scumreads (although my teammates disagree on lycan).

[northsidegal]

Here's something to consider looking into: Yesterday's wagon, those voting on it and off it, and what was happening around that time. Then look at what happened D2, and tell me your thoughts. Finally, tell me why you were putting this game on the back burner.

Also, talk to me more about CES and Lycanfire. What's your reasoning for scumreading them? Thoughts on this post: #1356

Shea, will respond to you soon, I'm home now.

my thoughts on the wagon are mostly just a reflection of my preexisting reads – i think the wagon was mainly town and, if there was scum on it, it would likely be in {cogito ergo sum, lycanfire}, with the outside chance of dunnstral. to comment on something specifically, i think cogito ergo sum's reason for switching his read on the tchill slot is kind of strange – for someone who said that the wagon was little better than a random lynch, i don't think a sudden switch to thinking that it landed on scum happens the way that it seemed to for him.

i think it was llamarble who might've put forth the idea that it was an all-town wagon that scum deliberately stayed off of, organized using daychat – that doesn't really seem realistic to me. taking that to be true would also imply a kind of weird scumteam, something like {davsto, marquis, eddie} (although if i'm wrong about my reads on the wagon and it is actually town then my reads off the wagon are likely to be no better).

i couldn't really give you a single reason that i kind of ended up putting this game off – i think it started where i was actually just busy for a day or so, and then i didn't want to catch up, and as i kept putting it off the amount that i had to catch up on kept growing which made me want to catch up less, and so on. actually, now that i think about it, i think it all started with the thread lock for your replace in.

will respond in more detail about day two and about that one post you made in a second, just want to get thoughts out there. looking at that vote count that just pedited me, it implies that all three scum are bussing, which i suppose makes sense in white flag.

[northsidegal]

oh man, i really miss when this game was slower.

Lycan scumread – my lycan scumread initially started because i got majorly pinged that his reads were fabricated. he entered the thread making a point and a vote that were entirely predicated on a hard llamarble townread, and then later on in his readslist he had llamarble as null. other people seemed to townread him for the one post where that happened, but i never saw anything there. in fact, i think it's the kind of post where i myself would be inclined to make a mistake in townreading it. nothing he's posted since then has changed that or really caused me to reconsider.

mathdino disagrees with me on this, says that lycan was unlikely to pick scum for this game and from his team.

Cogito ergo sum – this started because ces really just wasn't doing anything. he was pretty much one-note pushing marquis for a comparison to the 2015 team mafia white flag game where marquis was scum, and he was kind of obtuse in answering my questions. Granted, that doesn't make someone scum, but as i've already described the switch from thinking the tchill wagon was no better than random to scumreading screen for the replace in seems scummy to me.

i have some thoughts from kmd, gotten secondhand from math – he thinks marquis and quick are both super town and he's disappointed with the suspicion on eddie, postie and tsq. although i know that until recently he hadn't seen the flip and still thought llamarble might be scum, so not sure how modern these are.

[northsidegal]

i'm pretty sure that my team and postie's team are on the same wavelength when it comes to ran's slot. ran, what's a50 interested in specifically? because i'd be willing to hear it out.

more specific responses incoming.

[northsidegal]

Can you have them give reasons why? Also, can I see a vote from you? Or an explanation for why you aren't voting? I especially want to see KMD's thoughts, and I know he'd be the type to give good notes.

i asked him to go a bit more in-depth just recently, still waiting on that. in contrast to my usual style (or what i like to think of my usual style), i think i'd rather hold off on voting until i'm a bit more confident in this position.

If you are town why do you hesitate in making a vote and seeing what bites?

same reason as above – i feel like we're (or at least, i'm) currently in a position where i'd rather be more thoughtful in where i place my vote rather than more reactionary. i feel like i probably didn't give my tchill vote enough thought and thus i'm partially to blame for that (in addition to the inactivity), so it's something that i'm now trying to avoid.

Cogito ergo sum – this started because ces really just wasn't doing anything. he was pretty much one-note pushing marquis for a comparison to the 2015 team mafia white flag game where marquis was scum, and he was kind of obtuse in answering my questions. Granted, that doesn't make someone scum, but as i've already described the switch from thinking the tchill wagon was no better than random to scumreading screen for the replace in seems scummy to me.

What started?

My scumread on ces, which i am now reconsidering (from talking to teammates, new team mafia-wide info, and from feeling like i don't actually have all that good of a reason to scumread him).

[northsidegal]

Me and mathdino both agree that llamarble was killed to break up town cohesion, and that the post we should all be looking at is 875. To that end, he thinks that postie vs tsq is a pointless debate to have as that'll be resolved itself as the game goes on.

Wouldn't #1160 be the obvious post to look at if that was your point of view?

It's moreso about the plan than the reads, although they're both pretty applicable.

i think cogito ergo sum's reason for switching his read on the tchill slot is kind of strange – for someone who said that the wagon was little better than a random lynch, i don't think a sudden switch to thinking that it landed on scum happens the way that it seemed to for him.

I think that's pretty significantly overstating how positive I felt about the lynch. Screen's play helped me make peace with it happening but I wasn't surprised when he flipped town.

i mean, you asked eddie to put him at l-1 and then hammered him. i've seen people play that way in relation to people who they townread getting wagoned, but i still think it doesn't make much sense to do that to someone if you think they're going to flip town.

[northsidegal]

CES/Dan are obvscum. Whenever I push CES some scumfuck like Dan or NSG comes out to try to discredit me. Not building consensus on that worries me about where the third is, but maybe this is a giant shitstorm of noise.

No words can better capture my feelings with regards to this than that eyeroll does, but i'll talk about it anways. Where have i once discredited you, especially in relation to a cogito ergo sum read? if you've been paying attention, up until this point i've been scumreading cogito ergo sum myself. any time i've talked about you has never been to discredit, unless you consider just stating a scumread on you (and the reasoning for it) to be discrediting, which i don't.

There's a lot of stuff that's come up recently that's made me willing to reconsider most of my reads, but this is making me pause on that.

[northsidegal]

things mathdino wants me to say:

he was the one giving me kmd's thoughts but they were from a chat with kmd and when we were talking he had closed the chatbox and kmd was offline, so he didn't have them.
he think's cogito ergo sum's push on gamma is terrible.
he said that postie is town.


Oh yeah, and one of the more important things that we discussed that he wants me to start up in this game – so far in the tournament it appears like, as a general trend, the players who prefer scum, are good at scum, or would just in general be more likely to pick scum... are the ones who have flipped scum. To that end we both collectively agreed to move actiondan up in our preferred lynch order, and he says that quick is far less likely to be scum and we shouldn't lynch him.

[northsidegal]

@nsg

- What's your Eddie read?

pending a further review i don't feel comfortable or confident calling it either way. my teammates say that they're fine with the lynch there – as for me it's not a lynch that i'm

against

, but hopefully now that i'm back and involved in the thread i can sort things out a bit better.

---

@Ran

 – KMD said he would read up over the weekend and presumably give his thoughts then.

@Eddie

– Mathdino really wants to hear mastina's reads for this game, and he says that it's important that if you're going to get lynched that you get them out there.

@Everyone

– Thoughts on the "people more likely to pick scum are just scum" trend? This is actually one of the more unfamiliar games to me in terms of playerlist, so i don't really know how much all of you prefer town to scum – anyone have any information here?

[northsidegal]

trust me, i've noticed – relayed to my team, as well.

[northsidegal]

ran, the concise version of my response to your 1631 is that your pool is

very

good, we disagree about your mastina point, and in general you had it right when it came to the scum preferences.

i think i'm less okay with an eddie lynch today, just because i'd like to lynch elsewhere.

[northsidegal]

think i must have missed this.

@NSG

i actually seriously for real this time promise to start playing the game again. full disclosure – i didn't actually catch up the last few times i said i would or over the night phase. i am currently on page 38.

i mean, this is far and away the easiest game to catch up on, but that's neither here nor there.

i don't think there's a point in asking you specific questions if you haven't read the thread at all – they'd inevitably be leading questions, wouldn't they? can you just start reading the thread?

Mastina asks: Thoughts on Marquis, given you stated this?

if that's meant to be pointing out some hypocrisy or something, those two posts were made at very different times and gamestates. i'm currently nulltown reading marquis, but he's still in the lynchpool.

Also

gamma, i don't mean any offense by this but your thoughts in 530 seem superficial.

Proposal for a set of acronyms:

• MTT - my teammates think
• IDCAWYTMTBYMBLTEYPWEG - I don't care about what your teammates think because you might be lying to enhance your posts with extra gravitas
• WYELT?EAIFTR..R?! - Would you, ergo, lynch this? Ergo as in 'for these reasons.. Really?!
• TYRUF? - Then Y R U Frontin'?

I like these acronyms, gives an air of keeping things brief, not getting bogged down in wordiness.

i mean, do you

really

think that these acronyms serve a functional purpose or that people were going to adopt them? i'm having trouble believing that that's a real thought that you had, and the same applies to a few other things you said there.

Mastina requests you follow this to it's final destination in the brain/logic department. It was a point against Gamma, but also a point against Sauce now Ran.

i'm pretty sure that's just par for the course for sauce – he seemed like kind of a strange person, so i'm pretty sure the weird acronyms were pretty much nai for him.

[northsidegal]

eh, it's preflip, but i could see an actiondan / cogito ergo sum team. individually i don't have great reasons to scumread either, really, outside of dan perhaps preferring scum over town.

[northsidegal]

i believe that was lycan.

[northsidegal]

i mean, i didn't really make it clear but 1746 was in response to reading through lycan's iso. i wouldn't call lycan town just for reaching that conclusion, especially when it kind of gut reminds me of a situation where scum have to unnaturally stick to their guns and make it look like they have conviction in what they're saying. for example, it seemed like a large part of lycan's scumread on dan came from him theorizing that dan and cogito ergo sum were communicating in thread, but when someone pointed out that all scum have daychat in team mafia, lycan didn't seem to respond at all, nor did it seem to affect his read.

i also can't see where the dan scumread comes from after initially placing him as town except for the associative with cogito ergo sum, and i'm not sure what to make of it when a large part of the reasoning for lycan's scumreads is associative (at least, specifically for the read on dan).

[northsidegal]

NSG

: What is your read on Shea? Can you talk to me more about Eddie. Do you have meta on him?

i had tsq as scum early game but reconsidered a bit later and haven't really had anything jump out to me when it comes to sorting him. me and my team agree that it's definitely more productive to lynch elsewhere today.

i've never played with eddie before so i don't really have any meta info on him. i read a little bit of surreptitious but not enough to really commit anything to memory or to compare this game with it.

[northsidegal]

I'm not finished with my reread, but I've been noticing a strange trend where people are severely misinformed about my preferences to be scum or town. I suppose this is directed at NSG and Almost50 but I both prefer town and rate myself as much better at playing town than scum. I'm legitimately curious were your teams are getting the exact opposite idea. I could even quote myself evaluating my shortcomings in my UCV-hydra QT from deathworlders which happens to be one of 3 recent large theme games I've lost as scum each time.

So yeah,

Curious.

it was pretty much just speculation and comparison with the other people who chose this game – i'll ask my team if they had something concrete.

[northsidegal]

making this post to commit myself to responding now.

[northsidegal]

okay if that's hammer let me see if ican actually stop procrasting and put my thoughts out there, will post in parts to avoid it all getting lost to the thread lock

[northsidegal]

still confident in ranmaru being town, that read started from sauce and ranmaru has done a very good job of being an active voice and actually questioning people and getting people's thoughts out there, this is pretty much a unanimous townread from my team

[northsidegal]

kmd started catching up and has been giving his thoughts, i was planning on summarizing those

[northsidegal]

as for why i've been gone i don't really have an answer, every time i go to start a post i either don't or i start something and then delete it for being too bad

[northsidegal]

i think marquis and quick are both town, i think the eddie wagon was something that needed to happen.

[northsidegal]

something i was discussing with mathdino was that the entire gamma wagon day one needed to be lynched in some order, which i'm not entirely sure about because there are people off that wagon that i think have a pretty good chance of being scum.

i also think that the people saying that i'm scum lurking it out after getting townread have a pretty bad argument given that me not posting has done more to get me scumread than anything else.

pedit:

still confident in ranmaru being town, that read started from sauce and ranmaru has done a very good job of being an active voice and actually questioning people and getting people's thoughts out there, this is pretty much a unanimous townread from my team

So did your team change it's read on me?

my team always had you as town, if you're referring to that one "wavelength" thing i said then that was a misunderstanding that got cleared up pretty quickly.

[northsidegal]

well, not "always", but we've had you as town for a while.

[northsidegal]

NSG, do you lurk often regardless of alignment? Just wondering.

there have definitely been games where i've kind of lost direction as town and avoided the game thread but i also did do the same thing in one of the few scumgames that i've had.

[northsidegal]

i'd like to hear more from dunnstral because from my experience with him as scum (backed up by what one of my teammates has told me), he's kind of indifferent as scum as to who gets lynched, and i got that feeling reading through his posts today. would like to hear his own words on why he scumreads eddie as well as why he switched his vote onto marquis.

[northsidegal]

dunnstral, cogito ergo sum, not confident enough to place anyone at third. i mean, i would place down a vote now but i don't think it would mean anything unless it was on eddie.

i didn't really have anything to say to cogito ergo sum to continue the conversation about him hammering screen after previously townreading tchill because i didn't really know how to respond to this:

I think "expecting to flip town" vs. "expecting to flip scum" is a very unhelpful dichotomy. I initially thought the odds of hitting scum in Tchill was in the 25% area (6 such lynches = likely loss) and that then went up to, say, 35% (6 such lynches = okay odds of winning) which given the general situation seemed like the best I could hope for, so I ended the Day so we could move on.

but looking at it again i don't really think this is a good explanation and reviewing his iso for his townread on tchill he doesn't really do much to stop the lynch there and to get people voting with him on his scumreads.

[northsidegal]

When did your read on Dan change?

around the time that boonskiies flipped scum. i'm not sure how much more i can elaborate on it.

as for why i've been gone i don't really have an answer, every time i go to start a post i either don't or i start something and then delete it for being too bad

Can you go more into this? I've felt this way before but only as scum. Has this been a recurring problem in mafia for you? What is your read on Postie, Gamma, and Davsto?

being honest it mostly happens as scum because i find scum less interesting than town, but it's also happened before as town when i've jsut had trouble getting into a game or start placing too much expectations on myself of having perfect posts. i think postie and gamma are town, don't really have a solid read on davsto – still have yet to have any real time interactions with him i think. kmd has him as scum.

[northsidegal]

Anything in particular that discouraged you from posting? Your posts in the beginning seemed fine and got you town reads. (Can you go into the reasons for your reads)

i got kind of behind around the time that the thread got locked and the posting rate picked up faster than i had expected it to. what that meant was that i needed to catch up on everything to make a really informed post, but i kind of put that off, which only made me further behind which made me want to post less and the problem kind of fed into itself. i'm also supporting a team this game so they're relying on me, meaning that i put more expectation onto myself to post better and have better reads.

When did your read on Dan change?

around the time that boonskiies flipped scum. i'm not sure how much more i can elaborate on it.

sure you can

you said dan preferred scum. he said that he prefers town. my team told me d1 that he prefers town. i noted to them that he posts more as town. if this has to do with dan picking scum, you can still talk about it.

was there anything else readable from him?

me and mathdino were both townreading him by play day one, it was really only after that that we agreed that, out of this playerlist, he seemed among the most likely to pick scum. also around this time mathdino said that he thought the entire day one gamma wagon had to get lynched at some point and that that would likely just win the game.

[northsidegal]

my team always had you as town, if you're referring to that one "wavelength" thing i said then that was a misunderstanding that got cleared up pretty quickly.

I have no other questions besides this: Can you explain the misunderstanding? I don't remember you saying anything about a misunderstanding. Go more into this.

No, I don't think that I can.

[northsidegal]

i can tell you that mathdino mentioned it to me before postie had said anything, i think postie just ended up posting about it first.

[northsidegal]

VOTE: Dunnstral

feel pretty good about placing my vote here now, actually. don't believe that his rationale for voting marquis comes from a genuine place of conviction.

@tsq – i think reck misinterpreted what i was saying about my lurking – i said that i

do

have a meta of being less active as scum, not that i don't.

[northsidegal]

Do you think a 25% chance of flipping scum corresponds to a town read? I'll acknowledge that I didn't get to do as much as I would've liked to arrange a different lynch - I tried to encourage 'marble or someone else to take up the torch because I knew I would have almost no time to spare for basically the whole second week of the game; it probably would've been easier if I had had a town read on Tchill because that would've given me something nice and concrete to do.

i don't understand where that percentage comes from at all so it kind of sounds made up to me. why did the percentage change at all for screenplay's replace in? like, you give the justification for your read as the percentages but you don't give any justification for the percentages themselves.

P-edit: then why do you think Dunn changed to Marquis from Eddie, nsg?

not entirely sure, but i don't think he actually believed in the eddie wagon in the first place. could be to avoid pressure for a poor vote on the wagon, could be to muddy up associatives. either way i think it's scummy play. the eddie wagon certainly seemed as if it was happening anyways. is there something specific about the people that changes something about this read, to you?

[northsidegal]

not entirely sure, but i don't think he actually believed in the eddie wagon in the first place.

Can you quote where you got that feeling?

it was from reviewing his iso – he pretty much just admitted that he never actually looked into any of the meta on eddie and just thought he'd go along with it. like, that's actually just what he said.

Spoiler:

So, Eddie Meta. First to note is that I'll be referencing this post a lot as it's a good sum up of Postie's claimed town- and scum-meta re:Eddie.

First thing to note is that, while the chosen games are from last year (which initially concerned me with regards to cherry picking) they are indeed the two most recent (substantial) games Eddie has played in. This is also a general comment that I'm fairly happy with their assessment of their two games. I don't think the difference is as blindingly obvious as painted, however. Also, I will note that his TBD play (scum) becomes a fair bit more like his Night and Day (town) play as the game continues, which muddies the whole thing a little for me.

Now, the other games:
Paint Mafia Mania (SCUM) - while more recent than the other two, this game is the reason why the qualifier "substantial" is in the paragraph above - an entire 9 posts, due to a personal situation ("unforeseen life stuff"), a fast moving game, and eventual replace out. So, while largely it could be NAI (as pretty much all could be equally explained with the lack of full engagement with the game due to being behind), I do notice even in this tiny sample that a fair few of Postie's meta-indicators are present.
Hunger Games II (SCUM) - this is a hydra game with Bulbazak (to find Eddie's posts, use Ctrl+f and search "-Fenix", as he signs all but his first post with this). Another of Postie's points is here - a very small number of reads. Pretty much the first half of Eddie's posts refer to a single player (Creeps). And yep, a lot of questions which aren't followed up on, and.. yeh you get the idea. I was honestly expecting to have a fair bit to argue against Postie with but... this is pretty much as they say. I'm almost disappointed.
Team Mafia 2015: Mod Error Mafia (TOWN) - four posts, nothing to see here.
Team Mafia 2015: 8:4 Vanilla Nightless (TOWN) - this one's a teeny bit more ambiguous, as there are a few early posts where questions aren't followed up on and a smaller number of players are engaged with. But who am I kidding - this is quickly resolved, questions are followed, he gets mulitple more reads quickly, his posting is indepth and lacks fluff.

Dammit Postie, when you're right, you're right.

VOTE: EddieFenix

Will take a look at this later, will likely vote eddie if I agree

Ok then: I'm ok with lynching Eddie and will vote him if we're ready

I don't scumread LQ, but I haven't been looking into this posts in-depth

Marquis pushing that there was a dichotomy but never actually going into why a dichotomy is

bad

(and I did ask) is at the very least strange

What part of the postie case do you agree with? You mentioned you were going to do some digging into it but I don't see the result of that, I just see you saying "I'm going to look into that" changing into "I'm gunna vote eddie later".

Truthfully I never actually looked into it, I just assumed he was being voted for meta and figured I'd go along with it (also I thought I saw some favorable reactions to it)

I thought postie was relying on her team too much to the point of shirking responsibility off herself, that looked weird to me, I do think it is unlikely she busses though

I don't have an opinion on davsto slot, or on actiondan, I'll look at both of them but truthfully there's portions of the game I haven't read so I suspect I'll be missing on context unless I take the time to catch up on everything

CES doesn't look like scum to me from what I've seen, this is a change in a read I had on him earlier

VOTE: EddieFenix

Seems good for today

[northsidegal]

cogito ergo sum, my main problem lies with hammering a slot that up until recent you were townreading and then after the swap only marginally scumread. that combined with you not really doing that much to remove the lynch from someone you townread makes me think that you didn't actually care who the lynch landed on. if you had any more thoughts as to why screenplay was more likely to be scum after the swap in than the ones you gave in 1179 that might help me to clarify this.

[northsidegal]

i mean, yeah – i'm fence sitting. i don't really have a read on eddie myself and i haven't gone into the meta case that was posted against him.

also, i wasn't attacking dunnstral for getting off of the eddie wagon – i was saying that his vote in general was lazy and he didn't actually care who it was on. there's nothing specifically about eddie in relation to that.

[northsidegal]

making the argument that scum would try to claim credit for a wagon also doesn't really make sense to me, especially in white flag. nobody really gets credit for just staying off of a town wagon anyways, and isn't this the setup where scum bus to try to throw off associatives as much as possible?

[northsidegal]

i mean, if you're calling me scum for this i would appreciate if you would go into the details.

[northsidegal]

those cases probably happened during the time when i was only kind of skimming the thread. i'll go back and read them now to try to refine my own read, i've just so far kind of put off talking about it because i don't really like just sheeping other people's reads – i like to have my own reads on things and i haven't had that for eddie so far.

also, you make it sound like i just resorted to theory as a defense, but you were the one who put forward theory as to why i'd be scum – your theory was that my fence sitting was beneficial to me as scum no matter how eddie flipped, because if he flipped scum i could take credit for the wagon and if he flipped town i could say that i wasn't on it. my response to that is that, at least for myself and the way i've dealt with the eddie wagon, there's no world in which i would reasonably get any "credit" for it, whether he flipped scum or town.

[northsidegal]

NSG, since you townread me, how do you feel about Eddie's attack on me? I'm at work, but I'll go more in depth later on tonight.

could you quote that / give the post number for where that begins for me?

[northsidegal]

don't believe that his rationale for voting marquis comes from a genuine place of conviction.

What does this mean?

Because what I described actually happened

marquis hadn't made a real post in about 6 real life days and in about 300 posts when you changed your vote. i find it hard to believe that it just struck you how marquis' posting earlier in the game was appealing to emotion and such, causing you to switch your vote there because it's somewhere you actually wanted to go back to. i just can't see any reason for that voting pattern outside of not really caring where you're voting at all, and i think that that mindset makes you scum.

[northsidegal]

marquis hadn't made a real post in about 6 real life days and in about 300 posts when you changed your vote. i find it hard to believe that it just struck you how marquis' posting earlier in the game was appealing to emotion and such, causing you to switch your vote there because it's somewhere you actually wanted to go back to. i just can't see any reason for that voting pattern outside of not really caring where you're voting at all, and i think that that mindset makes you scum.

It doesn't

I feel like you don't really care what I say, though

are you admitting that you

do

have that mindset?

@ran – not being willing to commit to something without a genuine reason makes me ... scum?

[northsidegal]

that changed to a nullread when people pointed out that my reason for townreading him (way back at around post 552) wasn't actually that good and started wagoning him. you're really pulling something from a good while ago here.

[northsidegal]

Did you ever state this? Also can you go more into me pulling something from a long time ago, what is the purpose of you saying that?

not really, i think that came right at the time that i started to fall behind. i brought it up because if you're trying to point out some kind of inconsistency then i'm saying i don't think it's valid because you're pulling something from a long while ago.

[northsidegal]

i don't really understand the question. are you asking for my thoughts on eddie's 1365?

[northsidegal]

the entire thing is pretty much a reach, especially the parts about sauce.

[northsidegal]

in isolation? a bit more of a scumlean, but not much honestly. it seems like a scum desperation case, but i think reachy cases can come from town as well, and i have to wonder how much he really believes that he can get you lynched.

[northsidegal]

i mean, i'd be willing to vote eddie, i'm just more confident in dunnstral being scum. i have marquis as a townlean.

[northsidegal]

since about here, i think.

i think marquis and quick are both town, i think the eddie wagon was something that needed to happen.

i've just been catching up to this game with the expectation that eddie's death warrant was already signed and so i didn't really need to read him because he would be dying either way – that's the reason for my lack of a read on him. i was townleaning marquis for the bad wagon on him day one, some of his responses to quick, and his twilight posting at the end of day one.

pedit – this should answer your question.

[northsidegal]

oh yeah, i should get on summarizing that – i think he's read up to the end of day one a tthis point.

[northsidegal]

Why Dunn? Why Dunn over AD, Marq, and CES?

Why Dunn? Why is a wagon suddenly forming on Dunn out of all the lurkers?

because i feel like i have better and more clear reasons to vote dunnstral, moreso than anyone else that you listed. what about it is complicated or confusing to you?

[northsidegal]

here, responding now.

[northsidegal]

NSG: Who's scum to you today? Please post KMD's notes.

it's still dunnstral and cogito ergo sum, same as it was yesterday.

Kmd gave thoughts reading through the entirety of day one but given that they're pretty outdated i'm going to start from near the end:

He notes that in response to screen's question of who everyone would look at if he flipped town, quick says tsq and lycan, gamma says marquis and lycan, adds postie if eddie is town. he said he'd look back at the start of day two to see if they actually did this.

Says that quick's hesitance on tchill because of the people on his wagon felt towny.

Said that actiondan's catchup post was pretty bad, he doesn't like:
Saying that dunn has "reasonable meta" on tchill, which he says is flat out wrong. he also buys into the meta but keeps dunn as a scumread.
His unexplained refusal to reevaluate his eddie read.
His lazy townread on davsto. kmd doesn't think dan actually read those posts before labelling dan as town.
The way he calls tchill his top scumread (following his second biggest scumread's reasoning), but doesn't vote.

To lycan: "scum!dunn is incapable of original thought", he asks what original thought dunn has given this game and questions what dunn has helped town to do this game (in response to another thing lycan said)

He's surprised you even remember him ran, apparently he didn't actually say much in the pt before he was killed.

He had some points against davsto that he reconsidered.

He didn't think postie's meta case on eddie was very convincing and thought it was more of something where postie or rc or someone saw something related to the other games that they couldn't actually say or otherwise had something similar and the meta case was just post-facto reasoning, although he adds that if that actually happened postie likely would've said something like "it's for reasons i can't talk about" somewhere.

He likes davsto questioning postie's meta.

He really scumread's cogito ergo sum's hammer.

Ends with the following:

Town

:
ran
lycan
marquis
postie

"Meh"

:
gamma
eddie
quick
thestatusquo

Scum

:
davsto
cogito ergo sum
actiondan
dunnstral

[northsidegal]

Mathdino also has some things he wants me to relay:

He said that he thinks the lynch order of:
Ces > Quick > Dunn > Tsq > Marquis

ends the game, and actually would likely end the game after the second lynch.

@Dan

– Math wants to hear your team's read and thoughts on tsq

@Quick

– Math specifically wants to hear Creature's thoughts and reads when he gets the chance. He also wants to hear your case on marquis (none of us are really seeing marquis scum), and he wants you to consider whether your scumreads make sense with eachother.

@Ran

– Math doesn't know you but he knows a50 and he shares my confidence in you being town so he wants to work with you and your team today because he thinks you're a very likely kill target.
With regard to your read on me he wants a50 to look over my iso and take specific note of things that were influenced by my team / where i mention my team's reads.

@Gamma

– He's baffled you're still townreading cogito ergo sum, and wants to hear more on that.

[northsidegal]

for kmd it started with the bad wagon on him early in the game (where only one of his townreads was on it) and he didn't really see much to change that from there, it seems. see:

@Quick

– Math specifically wants to hear Creature's thoughts and reads when he gets the chance.

He also wants to hear your case on marquis

(none of us are really seeing marquis scum), and he wants you to consider whether your scumreads make sense with eachother.

[northsidegal]

none of those are my reads, they're my teammates' reads (unless i'm misinterpreting what you're saying – i am slightly coming around myself to the idea of lycan as town).

mathdino is yelling at me to say some things i missed:
he's

strongly

townreading lycan and says that cogito ergo sum should 100% be the lynch today, but if not him then dunnstral.

[northsidegal]

something he mentioned a lot was that the cogito ergo sum wagon has never really picked up steam, and also that his hop on eddie was bad and that ces didn't actually believe in that scumread. already mentioned the kmd thing.

[northsidegal]

for kmd it started with the bad wagon on him early in the game (where only one of his townreads was on it)

There's already 2 dead townies on the early Marquiswagon now. I'm pretty sure you've said you think Marquis is town yourself, so why restrict yourself to talking about outdated kmdstuff?

restrict myself? ran has been asking about this for days now – i'm simply answering her request.

Do you think math's busywork is useful, nsg?

explain what's "busywork" about it? of course i think having someone else to talk to about my reads with his helpful, and he's noticed some things that i haven't picked up on.

why ask this question?

(I also want to make the observation that it kind of feels like nsg is trying to scapegoat me for the two town lynches before the Marquislynch has a chance of going through. That's probably too convoluted to actually be true but certainly nsg's team's reasons for suspecting me don't seem to amount much more than just me connecting to the two lynches.)

i've given reasons in the past for why i think you're scum. i also get the feeling from the way you're framing things here that marquis is the scumteam's designated mislynch (this combined with dunnstral's later vote).

[northsidegal]

yeah sorry, was going to go through the thread and respond to stuff but i get distracted easily

[northsidegal]

Dunnstral's meta-case on Tchill seemed well intentioned. Something I'm not seeing come up in the simultaneous Dunnstral/Marquis reads is that nobody is mentioning how Dunnstral hopped off Marquis onto Tchill. Frankly, if Marquis is scum, he's getting bussed hard this game, and actually going through with it might be to the scum team's benefit. There's not much of a reason in hopping off there. Similarly if he's town, Dunnstral is hopping off one town wagon to another. Does he need to stick his neck out for that? I would argue that is actually counter-intuitive to lynching Tchill/Screenplay, because the result you'd expect is the result he received: Llamarble immediately suspected him for it, which weakened morale for lynching Tchill.

When Dunnstral is scum he will use other peoples talking points: when he's town he makes his own.

That's wifom on the counter-intuitive point. I've played with scum dunnstral in a game where i read him right when nobody else was – basically all he was doing was moving his vote around on different wagons. Could you explain what original talking points dunn has made since about the start of day two? i sincerely don't see any.

I have a question for you or whatever teammate is playing your slot today: why the fuck do you attack Dunnstral's meta case while simultaneously townreading Marquis?

Post something coherent.

this is unnecessarily hostile. other people have wanted the opinions of my teammates and my teammates have been yelling at me to share some of their thoughts.

could you explain the inconsistency there between the meta case and marquis? i'm not really seeing it.

[northsidegal]

NSG

: A50 does and has always wanted to work with you and your team. Right now A50's reads are looking like: Shea > Lycan > Marquis > CES | AD > Dunn > Quick | Gamma > Davsto. (From Scum to Town) Of course I remember KMD, how could I not. I can't remember the details of the posts, but I remember his influence on the game, and he was quite the asset. Now, Dan is someone that worries me. He's getting less and less present. I do agree that I'm a likely kill tonight, so I think it's best we lynch where there will be less support without myself in the game.

i agree with that idea and the end there and with regards to that math has been talking to me about a tsq lynch perhaps being the best today given that it seems that both: he's not getting nightkilled as predicted and that the support for it exists today where it may not exist later in the game. i'm still not entirely convinced and would like to see how the day plays out to be a bit more confident.

Math's lynch order seems fine with the exception of Quick, I don't think he's scum here. I want you to try to convince him back onto Lycan. I feel like you had good points against him. I, myself have been pushing things separately from how A50 has been reading things, and he's becoming more and more right. Yet even so, I feel it's best you try to remain confident with your own reads, separate from your team mate. I want you to try to push your own reads harder. I know that's a thing in the past that has caused me to let scum slip, I let other players experience out prioritize my own thoughts and I let them push their wrong reads and whoops. I didn't like your dissapearance D2 but I can see that it's most likely due to how fast paced this thread has become (partly due to my fault and others). I want you to remain confident and push your own reads. I implore you to look into Shea and Lycan, and compare it with what I say. Re-read the thread. I want you to put the effort. I know it's a lot, but we need your eyes and your thoughts to win. I want you active with me if you are town. I want you to surpass yourself this game. I want you to work with me. Let's get scum.

i definitely will be. just in general it seems like people are getting the impression that i'm letting myself be controlled by my teammates and i don't think that's accurate at all – a combination of real life business and apathy for getting back into this game cause me to be inactive for a while, and in response my teammates stayed caught up and gave me points to go off of so that i wouldn't be completely lost. they also have things that they want me to share, and i don't think it would be fair to them to not say those things just because it might reflect poorly on me. make no mistake – my teammates aren't in control here, i am.

[northsidegal]

lycan i resent that you only mention my teammate's read on ces when that's been my read from the very start of it.

pedit:

could you explain the inconsistency there between the meta case and marquis? i'm not really seeing it.

Why hop off one town wagon in favor of another?

It would make more sense to scumread Dunn over this for someone like Dan, who scumreads them both - except he doesn't care because he's a wolf - Dunnstral didn't have a reason that is more likely than "probably legitimately believes Tchill posting in other games is indicative"

. The only scum motive I could plausibly see here is wanted to look like a more cohesive part of the town, because the Marquis wagoners (wgeurts/Davsto, CES) aren't exactly town MVPs. That has to beat out "but I felt pretty much the same way so his reasoning is good".

here's the votecount at the time:

Spoiler:

Votecount 1.20

Tchill13(4)

~ Thestatusquo, northsidegal, LicketyQuickety, Llamarble

Marquis(2)

~ Cogito Ergo Sum, Dunnstral

northsidegal(1)

~ Marquis

Llamarble(1)

~ Sauce

LicketyQuickety(1)

~ Gamma Emerald

Gamma Emerald(1)

~ ActionDan

EddieFenix(1)

~ Postie

Davsto(1)

~ Tchill13

Cogito Ergo Sum(1)

~ Lycanfire


Not Voting (2): Davsto, EddieFenix

With 15 alive it takes 8 to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2018-02-04 21:00:00)

MOD NOTES

Prodding ActionDan. ActionDan has 24 hours to make a content post.

Added Links to votes for easier finding of votes.

the scum motivation in this switch seems obvious – accelerate the mislynch that looks like it's actually going through and the one for which an extremely easy / surface level meta "case" can be made. also, i can't really comprehend what the bolded is meant to be saying – could you elaborate / clarify that?

[northsidegal]

From what i remember davsto had the towniest progression on the eddie wagon, don't really see him as scum here.

[northsidegal]

I think marquis is today's scum designated mislynch. More later.

[northsidegal]

I don't see dan as scum this game. I don't think dan would take this game if he got a scum pm, I don't think he would play the way he's been playing as scum and I don't think his team would be as uninvested as he's described (which I believe). Moreover, I was townreading him by play day one and the only thing that changed that was the erroneous belief that he prefers scum. With that cleared up I really don't see it.

Talk to me about this, ran. Also talk to me about marquis scum, because I'm reasonably confident that he's the scumteam's scapegoat of choice today.

[northsidegal]

I do townread you. For right now, i'm not voting tsq because i think that's a distraction from more important points and is more likely to create 5 pages of walls that nobody wants to read than anything else. For now, i'm going with llamarble's approach - if tsq is scum, we have to lynch his partners.

Dan, did you mention that you think it's marquis/dunnstral? Despite my marquis read i think that makes sense, but talk to me about who the third is there.

[northsidegal]

Strongly agree with gamma.

[northsidegal]

North Side Gal, I really want you to talk to me about Marquis. I want you to work with me.

that's the exact same thing i want from you – explain your scumread there? i'm really not seeing it, and like i've said multiple times i think marquis is scum's designated mislynch today. like, marquis' 2520 is actually a pretty valid point think. i should have more to say on that in a second.

@marquis

 – i don't need a full readslist from you, i just want to know what you think of the people on your wagon and why ran and dunn are your scumreads in specific.

[northsidegal]

i've given reasons in the past for why i think you're scum. i also get the feeling from the way you're framing things here that marquis is the scumteam's designated mislynch (this combined with dunnstral's later vote).

I acknowledge that you've mistakenly claimed I had a town read on Tchill before in order to paint my hammer in a scummy light; that was part of it.

don't play word games and pretend like saying that his wagon was no better than random doesn't at the very least imply that you're townreading him. even if we only strictly consider what you said as saying "i wouldn't be willing to lynch there" (and i would presume you wouldn't take random lynches), then the point i'm making is that, to copy a bit of your own notation, your pathway from [not willing to lynch tchill] -> [willing to lynch screenplay] was weak.

i also think that since pretty much the end of day one all you've done is made a decision on who you want lynched and voted them – i don't see any genuine gamesolving or scumhunting from you. especially given eddie flipping, someone you had at 55% scum second only to marquis, i would have expected town you to recalibrated or taken a new look at the game or at your reads. instead, all you've done is just say that the exact same person is obvious scum.

VOTE: Cogito Ergo Sum

[northsidegal]

Tsq scum, quick town.

[northsidegal]

from what i can tell most people's marquis scumreads are just from him not doing anything, but i don't think that reality and the idea of him being scum go together realistically. like, the reads that he's given today are completely wild and seem utterly inconsistent with any scum agenda: quick and davsto scumread in 2358 to dunn/ran scumreads in 2517 and a ran vote just don't make sense to me if marquis is scum. it's utterly inconsistent with any realistic scum agenda i could think of and heavily indicates to me town that can't get into the game rather than scum. combine that with 1487 and you see why i'm confident that marquis is the lynchbait.

ran, i really think you need to get off of this wagon. vote cogito ergo sum with me?

[northsidegal]

Ran, unvote. You keep saying that you want to talk to me but you're not actually engaging with me at all.

[northsidegal]

I want to respond to 2556 but I don't have time right now. In short I think it's pretty confbiased and you describe why marquis does things as scum but I don't see the actual reasoning for him being scum in the first place.

[northsidegal]

ran, typing a response now. hold on.

[northsidegal]

Marquis's #2517 is why he is scum. This is the post he would make in a game with PR's, where he would claim VT, to gain the reaction NSG has given in her #2549. Since there are no claims in this game, the best Marquis can do is make that post to survive and seem townie.

This is why I call your case confbiased, Ran. You're starting off with an explanation of why, as scum, marquis is

doing something

, but not of why he's scum in the first place. Why doesn't this post come from town marquis?

It would be fine if he actually tried to sort people and gave effort but he just sits there without doing anything else. He doesn't actually make use of his vote in the best way possible, which would be to wagon CES.

Sure, he's not doing much – why is it scum and not town who just can't get into the game? I've given reasons for why I think it's town who can't get into the game – what are your reasons for the contrary? Also, if marquis isn't scumreading CES, why would you expect him to vote there?

Marquis's #24 still looks forced, it again feels like a buddy voting a buddy to salvage their mistake since to them, it's magnified so they feel they have to fix it. Here Marquis mentions his read on NSG #42, but doesn't reply to Action Dan's #58, ever. That is also the time NSG stops replying, until she gets back in with her #138. I again stress the point that, scum would not weaken their position for any good reason but to progress their own win condition, and salvaging a buddy seems like what happened. Marquis lurked until his #381, giving excuses of being sick. In his #455 he looks at his wagon and picks Quick as being the most likely scum on his wagon, that's the most game content he shares on Day 1.

Stop doing pre-flip and just stop scumreading me in the first place. Like, I know it's not a convincing argument to say this and it normally bothers me when other people say this, but just stop scumreading me in the first place. This day will be far more productive and (in my opinion) likely to end in a scum lynch if you start there. Seriously – your team has me as hard town, postie literally had me as locktown, and i would literally

never

choose scum here. How much of your marquis scumread remains if you consider that i'm never partnered with him because i'm never scum in the first place?

In fact, (and this is something mathdino was talking to me about), who

do

you think marquis makes sense with as scum? Because just on a surface level analysis i think the fact that pretty much everyone seems okay with this lynch should be raising major flags for you. "But bussing!" i hear someone think – yes, bussing exists in white flag, but i wouldn't say it would ever happen on as nonsensical a level as this. I don't think anybody is getting major towncred from this lynch given that marquis is basically not around to give any interactions or do any theater to try to clear a scumbuddy. scum bussing here would basically just be putting themselves one lynch away from an instant loss when, if marquis were scum, there would be different and not much more difficult mislynch options available.

It doesn't make sense.

He doesn't even vote LQ until Screenplay is hammered, in his #1226. That vote was very badly timed. Marquis's #1466 shows that his early push on NSG was a farce, alongside him not actually considering Dan's point of view.

Do you expect someone to have the exact same read 1000 posts later that they did on page two? Also, he elaborated on his read on me in 1481 – does his reasoning there change anything, to you?

His #1481 reads to me as something he'd post to try to seem townie and leave the thread again without any further input, and a vote on LQ. #1493.

So in general: Marquis knows that early game is important to be in for a good position but screws that up, and gets wagoned, and lurks out of it to survive. His vote in EOD is badly timed, to cover for the fact that he has had no presence or intention to check in thread before. He checks in D2 to try to seem townie, and in D3 he tries to AtE a 'give up' post since there are no claims. He tries to seem townie to live, and isn't trying to progress the game. He is going to get lynched today. It is time.

You have again given reasons for why he would do something as scum but not for why those action makes him scum in the first place.

I really don't want to be spending time defending marquis like this – i would much rather be trying to figure out viable scumteams with you. it's just that i think you're pointed in the entirely wrong direction.

[northsidegal]

@Quick – what's your read on dunnstral? Would you ever be willing to vote there today?

[northsidegal]

mathdino also wanted me to mention that "he doesn't actually make use of his vote in the best way possible, which would be to wagon CES." is actually a town argument for marquis and gave him more reason to townread marquis.

[northsidegal]

You say you haven't seen any gamesolving or scumhunting from CES. Technically, he is scumhunting, and he is pushing for Marquis.

that's not "scumhunting". that's pushing for someone's lynch. i suppose a more accurate term would be "sorting".

Gamesolving, he isn't doing as much as I am, but that is his playstyle. This may be your first time playing with him, but he typically plays in a concise manner. I think Llamarble said that usually if he's town, he's pretty accurate.

i understand that he has a perhaps "unconventional" playstyle. that doesn't mean that i can't scumread him for his play.

i was going to respond to the rest here but if you've changed your mind then okay.

[northsidegal]

ces i've had a relatively large response half-typed up for a bit, will try to finish that soon.

[northsidegal]

What is your read of Dunn? Where are you in your read on me currently? I think I remember your team saying I am Scum here. What makes you personally think I am playing similarly to the Newbie Baseball game where I was Scum?

i have dunn as pretty solidly scum, and i have you as town. i think math has largely come around to townreading you, and i don't think you're playing similarly to that newbie game at all (although as scum i still kind of doubt you would be).

[northsidegal]

I'd be willing to go for dunn today if it can get a majority.

[northsidegal]

Quick

– I have something mathdino wanted me to share. He strongly agrees that shea is scum, and there's no way that he's ever scum

with

marquis (his most recent sheep of ran onto the marquis wagon should confirm that, i think). From VCA and from interactions, if shea is scum then cogito ergo sum is his most likely partner.

The people lynching marquis are also the people who

you

scumread – why join in on that wagon?

[northsidegal]

Quick

– I have something mathdino wanted me to share. He strongly agrees that shea is scum, and there's no way that he's ever scum

with

marquis (his most recent sheep of ran onto the marquis wagon should confirm that, i think). From VCA and from interactions, if shea is scum then cogito ergo sum is his most likely partner.

The people lynching marquis are also the people who

you

scumread – why join in on that wagon?

I disagree that shea can't be Scum with Marquis.. Context is important. If they are both Scum, then Shea is in a world of hurt if Marquis gets lynched and flips Scum and shea isn't on the wagon. I have yet to look at shea's read(S) on CES, but that's on the order. Depending on what I see there, I may have more to say.

Long story short, Marquis should NEVER make it to LyLo.

I don't think bussing makes sense in the first place here. Like, you're saying that if marquis got lynched and tsq wasn't on the wagon then he'd look bad, but marquis wouldn't be getting lynched here in the first place if he were scum – it was scum who started the wagon (and i think your reads match mine on this point such that you should agree). If cogito ergo sum were town scum would've almost certainly taken that opportunity, the same espeically so for dunnstral. Scum wouldn't need to be the trailing bus vote on a scum!marquis wagon because a scum!marquis wagon most likely wouldn't be going through in the first place. None of the pushes there have been forceful or convincing enough for them to

need

to sheep on it or look bad.

Marquis doesn't have to make it to lylo if we win before that.

[northsidegal]

Mathdino wants to hear creature's thoughts on the marquis wagon, quick.

[northsidegal]

she's asking why you're voting with creature's top pick for the lynch today (tsq).

[northsidegal]

why would scum be bussing right now?

[northsidegal]

Incorrect question. You should be asking instead, why wouldn't Scum bus Marquis?

• It puts them at one lynch away from an instant loss, a significantly disadvantaged position that they don't need to put themselves in.
  
• If marquis is scum, there are other town lynches would be equally as easy to push as the marquis wagon (and wouldn't be on a scumbuddy).
  
• Nobody gains significant towncred from a scum marquis flip given that he's barely around to provide any interactions and the number of people willing to scumread him.

[northsidegal]

Want to hear from Gamma, TSQ and Dan. TSQ especially I think, can't let him lurk this part of the game out right now.

[northsidegal]

I'm not going to switch again. Join me.

I'm actually considering it
I'll look over CES again and maybe Marq too

Did you get around to doing this? What came of it?

Incorrect question. You should be asking instead, why wouldn't Scum bus Marquis?

• It puts them at one lynch away from an instant loss, a significantly disadvantaged position that they don't need to put themselves in.
  
• If marquis is scum, there are other town lynches would be equally as easy to push as the marquis wagon (and wouldn't be on a scumbuddy).
  
• Nobody gains significant towncred from a scum marquis flip given that he's barely around to provide any interactions and the number of people willing to scumread him.

Plenty scumread him, but it can be read into what is done with that read

it certainly can be, and i think from what i

have

read into of that, it indicates that he's town. did you come to a different conclusion based on the number of people willing to scumread him?

[northsidegal]

those are posts that my team specifically discussed in our team private thread as things that we couldn't forget about, definitely think everyone else should be keeping them in mind as well.

mathdino is chatting me right now, he wants me to say a few things:
he fundamentally agrees with llamarble's posts and thinks that cogito ergo sum using them them to defend tsq is disingenuous when llamarble's opinion was basically "if he's scum lynch his buddies".
the way that eddie cane views the game is pretty much exactly how he's viewing the game
he says that if you want one, ran, he can give a readslist from him.


pedit – i'll probably make a full readslists sometime, definitely before the day ends.

[northsidegal]

man, this is tiring.

[northsidegal]

like just when i think i'm finally making progress on anything ran's entire readslist flips upside down,

again.

[northsidegal]

Ran, you made the point that people who hate scum would take it for the wifom value. I want you to look at the names of every single player who has flipped scum in this tournament. Not making any further comment there. Just look at them.

[northsidegal]

NSG, answer the question. Why did you vote CES in your #333?

i think someone already asked me that back on day one and i already answered – if i recall correctly it was because i felt like he wasn't actually scumhunting.

[northsidegal]

NSG: Gamma asked you, and you selectively quoted him to respond to his self-meta point but ignored the Gamma question. #376 Follow-up question: Why did you ignore Gamma's question?

what question? the cogito ergo sum vote one? that was a long time ago – i have no clue what to tell you.

Ran, you made the point that people who hate scum would take it for the wifom value. I want you to look at the names of every single player who has flipped scum in this tournament. Not making any further comment there. Just look at them.

This is gambler's fallacy. I'll check your team but it's not fair to attribute the thinking of other teams to yours.
Predicting specific response by Marquis in 3...2...

It's not gambler's fallacy. That would imply that it was random, when people chose the alignments that they would take.

[northsidegal]

what question? the cogito ergo sum vote one? that was a long time ago – i have no clue what to tell you.

Go re-read, and try to remember. This is important. Also, where is the CES post you were making?

i think i ignored it and asked him the question of if he responded chronologically because i thought it was obvious why i was voting cogito ergo sum, to get him to answer the question i kept quoting.

i deleted it.

[northsidegal]

NSG is still leaning too much on her team mates because she's having a hard time faking reads. Otherwise she'd be fine with posting a reads list.

i'm literally not. i'm not posting a reads list because i don't see the point. if you want my opinion on someone just ask me.

How am I "having a hard time faking reads"?

[northsidegal]

Why did you delete it? Also, explain your TSQ and Quick reads. You still need to answer to that as well.

i just didn't think it was that good. TSQ is scum by team comp, PoE and by voting history. Quick is just town. I can tell you that he's not playing like what i know of his scumgame to be. he's also made a lot of posts that i think are just obvtown but i really don't care to go back and find them for you.

[northsidegal]

scum please kill me

[northsidegal]

Okay but my point was you can't make the same analysis for all teams. Gambler's Fallacy just sounded like the right term.

You're making the same generalization like you did about your point with bussing. Are you saying that there's something different to that analysis when it comes to me? If so, please elaborate. If not, this doesn't mean anything.

[northsidegal]

it's a lot of typing for something that isn't very pressing. I literally already told you that i intended to post one before the day ended – I don't see the point in you constantly nagging me for one. Do you want my read on someone? Just ask.

I already responded to that. I was largely ignoring eddie because I figured that the wagon on him was inevitable, and nothing pinged me enough to think it was worth derailing it entirely by myself.

[northsidegal]

I don't know, writing just wasn't flowing. Yes, I'm still confident in CES.

Ran

: Can you pretty please stop nagging me and also stop ignoring your teammates and common sense with your scumread on me?

[northsidegal]

Okay but my point was you can't make the same analysis for all teams. Gambler's Fallacy just sounded like the right term.

You're making the same generalization like you did about your point with bussing. Are you saying that there's something different to that analysis when it comes to me? If so, please elaborate. If not, this doesn't mean anything.

What bussing generalization?
Also the point is that each team makes their own decisions. I need to see each one's and analyze those.

These two posts, my response to which I don't believe you've answered:

Spoiler:

This is white flag.

That doesn't all the sudden mean Scum don't bus.

Incorrect question. You should be asking instead, why wouldn't Scum bus Marquis?

• It puts them at one lynch away from an instant loss, a significantly disadvantaged position that they don't need to put themselves in.
  
• If marquis is scum, there are other town lynches would be equally as easy to push as the marquis wagon (and wouldn't be on a scumbuddy).
  
• Nobody gains significant towncred from a scum marquis flip given that he's barely around to provide any interactions and the number of people willing to scumread him.

Plenty scumread him, but it can be read into what is done with that read

Sure, each team makes their own decisions, but do you have something specific to say about how a general trend would be violated in my case specifically?

Pedit – Gamma is still town.

[northsidegal]

you're acting like just because i deleted my response that it's something that utterly proves me wrong. it's not. i don't flip my readslist upside down based on one post.

[northsidegal]

I disagree with what he's saying.

[northsidegal]

not posting a readslist has nothing to do with sorting people or continuing a push or "getting an understanding from him".

it's not that i can't elaborate on it, it's that i'm really tired with talking to you. i can respond to what he said, i just haven't. it's not "rightly refuted".

please put a50 on the phone.

[northsidegal]

a readslist has nothing to do with creating a clearer picture of someone's alignment, all it is is ordering your pre-existing reads. that's the way i look at it.

[northsidegal]

don't play word games and pretend like saying that his wagon was no better than random doesn't at the very least imply that you're townreading him.

No better than random is the

literal definition

of a null read.

This is getting into pedantry, but a random lynch is more likely to fall on town than scum.

even if we only strictly consider what you said as saying "i wouldn't be willing to lynch there" (and i would presume you wouldn't take random lynches), then the point i'm making is that, to copy a bit of your own notation, your pathway from [not willing to lynch tchill] -> [willing to lynch screenplay] was weak.

I feel like you're just trying to find new ways to making it seem like I had a big read change; it's just not true. I detailed exactly the nature of my read change in #1596; do you think I should not have been willing to hammer Screenplay at a time when no better lynch was forthcoming?

Yes – if no better lynches were "forthcoming", you should have been the one to put one forward. This was the entire basis for my original scumread on you – it didn't look like you were actually scumhunting. Lynches shouldn't be "forthcoming" to you, you should be looking for them. Yes, you've described how your read changed happened when your weird percentage of him being scum went up. What

I'm

saying is that i don't think you had good reasons for that percentage going up. that's the essence of what i'm trying to say – no matter what way you define your read (percentages, no better than null, whatever), i don't think the switch you had from your opinion on tchill early in the day to the hammer is a town one.

i also think that since pretty much the end of day one all you've done is made a decision on who you want lynched and voted them – i don't see any genuine gamesolving or scumhunting from you.

Getting the right people lynched is how you win, so that does tend to be my focus, yes. I tried to engage with Eddie, I've been trying to understand where you're coming from (I'd still like a response to the busywork question), but at the end of the day that sort of stuff is only interesting as far it changes who I want to read. I'm here to win the game, not for brownie points.

You're misinterpreting what I'm saying. I'm saying that, when it comes to "getting the right people lynched", townies are sorting people to figure out who to lynch while you're just picking people to lynch.

What busywork question?

especially given eddie flipping, someone you had at 55% scum second only to marquis, i would have expected town you to recalibrated or taken a new look at the game or at your reads. instead, all you've done is just say that the exact same person is obvious scum.

I know this is a concept floating for some reason but this is actually the completely opposite of how it works. Eddie (and Postie) flipping town simply makes it more likely that Marquis is scum - there's only 3 scum and quite a few people look townie to various degrees so it's only become more likely that Marquis is scum. If you're looking for someone and there's 2 man-sized bushes, it's 50-50 they're in the first one but if the first bush is empty, then it's very likely Marquis is hiding in the other one.

This is a valid point in general, but so far i'm fairly certain that everyone you've scumread has been town. does that give you no pause at all?

[northsidegal]

Ran, you are literally crushing my desire to play this game at all.

Stop doing pre-flip and just stop scumreading me in the first place. Like, I know it's not a convincing argument to say this and it normally bothers me when other people say this, but just stop scumreading me in the first place. This day will be far more productive and (in my opinion) likely to end in a scum lynch if you start there. Seriously – your team has me as hard town, postie literally had me as locktown, and i would literally never choose scum here.

[northsidegal]

you're misinterpreting what pre-existing means.

{nsg}
{ran}
{lycan, gamma, quick}
{davsto, dan, marquis}
{}
{tsq, ces, dunnstral}

[northsidegal]

Stop wasting my time.

[northsidegal]

First off, why is a generalization bad?

I'm not saying it's "bad". I'm saying that you're not actually making a concrete point about anything when you speak in generalizations. It's not meaningful.

The point in that first post is that you can't say scum don't bus cos white flag.

I've given good reasons why I think scum

aren't

bussing right now – is your response simply "it's white flag"?

As for the second, the point I'm making is you can still try to sort things involving Marquis. Who actually bnelieves their read and who is just along for the ride.

Sure – I don't disagree, but i fail to see the relevance of this to the argument that scum aren't bussing.

Also, how do these things relate to your picking scum for you? Seems you're just misdirecting.

It's not misdirecting – i'm saying that the vague generalizations that you're using to ignore the fact that i would never pick scum was similar to the vague generalizations you used against my points that scum weren't bussing.

[northsidegal]

I'm still waiting for an explanation about why you were not even remotely curious about the lead wagon when you did your catchup? Why were you perfectly content to just let what you thought was a misslynch happen while doing nothing to stop it?

i've already explained this.

I already responded to that. I was largely ignoring eddie because I figured that the wagon on him was inevitable, and nothing pinged me enough to think it was worth derailing it entirely by myself.

[northsidegal]

Also, why are you stating NSG is town without actually responding to my reasoning for why she is scum?

Can you say your reasoning for me being scum again? Also, please please please please put a50 on the phone, or at least talk to him about this.

[northsidegal]

ok then, guess the first point is fair. As for the next two things when did you say scum weren't bussing? Because that affects what I think of the statement. Also I can see how you can connect the generalizations. btw I'm gonna start working on covering every scumflip, the slot occupants, and if I determine something wrt you team that makes me rethink you I might reconsider, but there's also AD stepping up all of a sudden to defend you, which he didn't do for Eddie, a townflip.

I forget, it was when i was talking about the marquis wagon.

I don't mean any offense by this, but your logic is incorrect in that last sentence there. Yes, eddie was town and dan did not step up to defend him. Does that necessarily imply something different about my alignment because dan is now defending me? That doesn't make sense – we're entirely different players.

What's more, let's say that it really is me and dan as scum. Making this play would practically be suicide for the scumteam – if people follow what he says and he flips scum, that instantly incriminates me whereas if i were simply to get lynched and flip scum he would be better served by distancing himself from me.

[northsidegal]

Also note that NSG had delayed a response with her #1 scumread and it took three votes for her to be motivated enough to respond. It shows she has little interest in determining alignment as she would like to appear to be.

i'm pretty sure there was like a 12 to 24 hour gap between me saying i'd make that response and you flipping out on me. like, i went to bed one day and then i woke up and found your readslist flipped upside down again. you can't imply a causal relationship between the two things.

[northsidegal]

I'll do NSG,that implicates AD anyway
VOTE: NSG

Not sure if i already asked you this, but explain the reasons you're scumreading me, gamma?

[northsidegal]

Btw Ran, KMD's been behind on this game, heard who you think the scumteam is and said something along the lines of "oh god, ran is better than that."

@Tsq – quote that for me, please?

[northsidegal]

NSG: I think she's scum due to fence sitting, lacking presence,

Not scumtells in and of themselves.

and not committing to the Eddie wagon without a stance on it.

I've explained the reason for this.

She states her lack of motivation was due to having bad posts, but I never got that feeling, and she was never pressured.

Okay? You never got the feeling that my posts were bad, but that means nothing for the way that

I

feel sometimes typing them.

I certainly think that she is more likely scum who actually lost interest in keeping up. She posts in other games and seems to have more energy for those and leaves this in the back burner.

I've explained the reasons before for why i lost motivation. Do you have reason to believe that it's more likely because i'm scum than because of the reasons that I've given? keep in mind that i would literally never ever choose to play scum.

She also hasn't seemed to re-evaluate her CES read, she seems to be more harping on him and trying to find anything she can on him rather then actually try to determine his alignment. #1963 || I began to reconsider and think if maybe she had a point. My concern is that she doesn't seem as eager to talk with CES as she would expect him to be (since she says he isn't sorting). This looks very bad on her. She's putting off the most important thing, and that's interacting with her main scum read.

I interacted plenty with cogito ergo sum over the course of the day. Do you know what happened to detour me from doing that? Having to hard defend a lynchbait wagon from going through and then getting hard tunneled by someone committing to make me jump through as many hoops as possible and then still just calling me scum (ignoring her teammates, the nightkill whose dying request was that i was locktown and common sense).

It takes myself calling her out to get her in thread. Her #2581 pinged me in a similar way to Action Dan's post after I voted Eddie. (Which put Eddie at 5 votes) #2423 Is a good post from Shea as well, which looks bad on NSG. #2634 Is suspicious to me as I am pushing for CES, she states openness to Dunn. Compromising is a good skill, but not so early in the day. I felt it was out of place with her focus. NSG's #2528 has been going unexplained for a while. It feels like she stated that to appease me rather then to actually do anything with it. (She has said she wavered on him, and her read change back to TSQ is unexplained)

How is openness to compromise a scumtell? I was concerned that if i couldn't get the votes necessary to lynch cogito ergo sum that the marquis wagon would go through, so i was prepared to switch to dunnstral as i also have him as scum. that's me thinking ahead about how to

win the game

and avoid lynching the lynchbait.

I think i said i wavered on tsq on like day two or something. that read is out of date.

i'm pretty sure there was like a 12 to 24 hour gap between me saying i'd make that response and you flipping out on me. like, i went to bed one day and then i woke up and found your readslist flipped upside down again. you can't imply a causal relationship between the two things.

Which you state you deleted, and said was bad, even though you said you were still confident in your CES read.

And? I don't understand how that's a response to what i just said.

Still waiting to hear what a50 thinks of all this. or cheeky, even.

[northsidegal]

NSG, tell me your thoughts on Action Dan and Quick right now.

Why?

Does it matter? You don't take anything i say into account. Sure, I'll jump through your hoops and type up a paragraph or so on my thoughts on them, but i don't think it'll actually change your mind on anything. Btw, talk to a50?

[northsidegal]

I feel like his inconsistency is scum-motivated. It could be to implicate you though, and it's not just that which is making me scumread him.

First question – why is it scum motivated?

Second question – is it even an inconsistency in the first place if he felt that eddie was not worth defending whereas i am?

[northsidegal]

Hey ran, why do you keep ignoring me when i ask you about your team?

[northsidegal]

Either he's defending his buddy or acting strange to implicate you. As town it feels weird.

What's with this dichotomy? Why is it impossible that he's defending someone he townreads?

[northsidegal]

You have now responded saying that you ignored the wagon because you assumed the lynch was inevitable, but that doesn't actually interact with what I'm saying. The fact that you ignored it because you assumed it was inevitable was my whole point. You just came into the game, did a "catch up," assumed the lynch was inevitable, without determining whether the points were good or not (you mentioned a couple of times that you had not even read the various cases on him despite me asking you to do so like 2 times and despite me asking you for your opinion on those cases)

Despite the fact that you had called eddie various levels of town all of the day and the previous one?

You thought there was no benefit in reading why he was being attacked and disagreeing with it? How did you know the lynch was inevitable when you DIDN'T EVEN BOTHER to read peoples reasons for it.

I considered eddie town initially for a poor reason that others pointed out. I knew postie's team had a meta case on him, which I assumed at the very least was valid. It wasn't a priority for me because there was no way I would be hard-defending him from the lynch in the first place.

[northsidegal]

Either he's defending his buddy or acting strange to implicate you. As town it feels weird.

What's with this dichotomy? Why is it impossible that he's defending someone he townreads?

Because why wouldn't he take the same defense day 2? it's oddly timed I feel.

Like I said, me and eddie are different people. Is it impossible to you that dan considers me with defending where eddie wasn't?

[northsidegal]

A50 would bet the tournament on you being town. I disagree, I think you are relying heavily on the preference to try to clear yourself. I am asking your thoughts on AD and quick because I am willing to compromise to them today.

I'm obvtown by play. The preferences are just an easy way to get everyone to see it.

Is your scumread on me truly so strong that you'd go against your teammate saying that he'd

literally bet the tournament

on me being town? Someone who has far more experience with and knowledge of me?

If yes, I don't mean to be rude, but that's arrogance to the extreme. Your hubris will be the town's failure.


I'm never voting either of those two today.

[northsidegal]

I agree with you normally. Seriously, I do. I'm just trying to drive home a point to Ran.

Ran's proposed scumteam doesn't account for me hard defending marquis and spending a large part of today getting her off that wagon. That's just a face value reason for why it doesn't make sense.

[northsidegal]

Btw, gamma, you didn't quote your reasons for scumreading me.

[northsidegal]

Multiple times, yes. Me / Dan / Quick.

[northsidegal]

What will it change, for you?

I'm pretty sure I've already explained those before and i'm really tired of your questions. Don't think dan takes scum, I think he's been pretty good about shooting down bad points (thinking back to day one here), and i townread the nature of his team's contributions.

Quick is town. Meta. That good enough for you?

[northsidegal]

Tsq, I was certainly interpreting it as a scumteam and I thought she'd said that. Ran, is that what you were saying?

[northsidegal]

@Ran

Is your scumread on me truly so strong that you'd go against your teammate saying that he'd

literally bet the tournament

on me being town? Someone who has far more experience with and knowledge of me?

If yes, I don't mean to be rude, but that's arrogance to the extreme. Your hubris will be the town's failure.

I'd also like to point out that the people in the tournament with any real experience with me have me as literally locktown this game.

[northsidegal]

By the way, quick is also town because of creature's contributions to this game.

[northsidegal]

If you think that's the only thing I've been saying you haven't listened to a word I've said.

Not thinking about team composition is also both willful ignorance and willful stupidity. Again - look at every player who's flipped scum this entire tournament. That's not just a defense of myself, that's also a part of my argument on who's scum.

[northsidegal]

Creature has given meaningful thoughts on this game. He hates being scum so much that he couldn't even fake reads for quick if quick were scum.

[northsidegal]

I've made in-game points as to why both of them are town. What's your response to this?

If you think that's the only thing I've been saying you haven't listened to a word I've said.

Not thinking about team composition is also both willful ignorance and willful stupidity. Again - look at every player who's flipped scum this entire tournament. That's not just a defense of myself, that's also a part of my argument on who's scum.

You're nagging me to type so many things but you're not actually responding to any of it, just moving on to the next hoop that I haven't jumped through yet.

[northsidegal]

[northsidegal]

we're not lynching dan today, by the way.

also want to let everyone know that i'm working on a pretty comprehensive cogito ergo sum case.

[northsidegal]

BTW, Dunn's votes look horribly opportunistic, and then when the Town lynch is basically ensured, Dunn opportunistically hops off the wagon.

i definitely agree with this, and i think this was something i was trying to get across earlier – i think it may have been cogito ergo sum talking to me about it, actually.

[northsidegal]

dunnstral's contributions this whole day are basically non-existent.

[northsidegal]

@Cogito Ergo Sum

– What has your team had to say about this game?

[northsidegal]

Also @ces, I believe you've said before that you place some weight into player alignment preferences. Any thoughts as to what it means when it comes to this game?

[northsidegal]

Ran, if dan's lynch isn't happening today (which it isn't), where would your vote be going?

[northsidegal]

@tsq, has your read on me changed? could you talk a little bit about that?

[northsidegal]

Finished typing up the cogito ergo sum case, by the way.

[northsidegal]

nothing else is coming to mind for me to say but i still need 4 more posts.

there was lovely weather outside today.

[northsidegal]

Thanks, dan!

[northsidegal]

Cogito Ergo Sum is Scum.

1. Vote / Reads Progression

Let's start back at the start of the game. CES votes llamarble and never explains why. He later calls for dueling marble-marquis wagons, and again never explains why. Llamarble calls him out on this, saying that he doesn't understand why he'd want that as town. This is CES' response:

It's not always about you, 'marble.

He later describes this vote as something he chose to do instead of putting down a serious vote on the marquis wagon.

He calls Marquis the scummiest of the three lurkers (Dunn, Marquis, Wgeurts), and again doesn't explain why. He makes a lot of posts just calling marquis scummy around this time still without explaining why before finally talking about it in 526. What were his reasons? "Awkward tone" and meta from one scumgame in 2015 that he never really explains in any depth. As far as I can tell,

these are still the reasons he's scumreading Marquis

, along with lurking. It goes without saying, but these reasons are both very easily fakeable and are apparently good enough for CES for that single read to last the entire game.

He briefly votes postie, perhaps influenced by marble's questioning of postie in the previous post. He again only explains this much later, saying that postie was more looking good than actually scumhunting. In that same post he says that he obviously agrees with the gist of the eddie case, but that he still thinks it would be an easy thing for postie to focus on if she were scum. All of these opinions are contradictory to eachother.

His Gamma vote comes for Gamma's case in 702, but again he only barely explains this until much later, with a vague comment about Gamma's case being "accusatory" in 823. He goes into more detail in 1567, saying that Gamma was being awkward and looked concerned with how justified his votes were. This is another weak read, and he pretty much entirely drops this point and doesn't bring it up again – you know, after the consensus largely came to be that gamma is town.

I've talked a lot about CES' read on tchill/screenplay, but let's really go over his progression there.
662 – Brings up two points that make tchill scummy, one point that makes him towny. Describes it as a "wagon driven by relatively crude heuristics."
820 – Pretty much doesn't take any stance on tchill, talks about how the lurking doesn't affect his read.
1025 – The swap makes him feel better about the wagon.
1179 – Argues that screen being willing to swap means it's more likely that the tchill slot is scum here.
1185 – When responding to ran, describes how the scumread on postie seems more convincing to him than the eddie part, which "doesn't really sway [him]".
1217 – Hammer.

CES says that he detailed the nature of his read change but he really didn't in any truly explanatory way. He's said how the odds of hitting scum in tchill went up for him, but the only reasons in his iso for this are the swap and screen's desire to survive.

Day two, back on the marquis wagon. Later, when Tsq asks him why he's not on the eddie wagon when he's stated that he agrees with postie's case, he says that that doesn't help with the goal of lynching two scum. What?

He later jumps on the Eddie wagon with no real indication as to why the switch.

Finally, day three, back on the marquis wagon.

---

Let's examine all of the reasons CES has voted people for, this game:
-Lurking
-Awkward wording
-Looking more good than actually solving the game (this vote never went anywhere, however)
-RVS? (Llamarble)

First of all, these reasons are, as a whole, surface level. It was llamarble who said that if CES doesn't lynch scum then he's probably scum himself – given that this is what CES has been pushing people on, I'm inclined to trust that. Next, all of his scumreads have been opportunistic – on players that looked lynchable (notable is that dunnstral is an exception to this, with a very weak reason from CES – this lends credence to my view of the scumteam). Marquis has always been a viable wagon. Tchill and eddie both actually went through. Gamma looked viable for a bit, and that's when CES voted / scumread him. His postie vote followed llamarble placing a bit of pressure there and again stopped afterwards. It's all agenda-driven.

A quick review of team mafia 2015 indicated that he didn't vote lurkers all the time. He seemed to have fairly well-developed reads that don't compare with his fairly robotic scumhunting this game.

---

2. Undeveloped Townreads

Here's a list of every time i could fine where CES calls someone "town":

662 – He talks about a "nice town tell" from tchill but still evidently scumreads him (if his behavior is anything to go off of).

1179 – Says that i had a "townish line".

1397 – Describes how one of quick's posts shows a pro-town mindset, but ultimately comes to the non-conclusion of "It's not hard to find scummy posts by Lickitung but it's not hard to find townie posts by him either."

1596 – Calls lycan town for scumreading him, calls tsq "sheaey", so wants to sheep llamarble's read on him.

1801 – Says that Ran is his strongest townread.

2223 – Says that davsto generally sounds town, but that he needs to take a closer look. This goes away after davsto votes him.

2610 – Quick is solidly town.

I'm pretty sure that's it. He's barely mentioned a large amount of the playerlist, and for the reads that he has mentioned, his reasons are always self-admittedly weak.

He's keeping his options open.

Look back at team mafia 2015 – a huge difference in how he approaches townreads. He's not playing the same at all, and i'm fairly confident it's because he's scum.

---

3. NKA

Let's examine llama and postie and their relation to cogito ergo sum.

First, llamarble's mentions of cogito ergo sum.
215 – Says to lynch CES in lylo no matter what. Can't imagine why CES called for dueling Marble/Marquis wagons if he was town.
343 – Calls CES null, and makes the point that strong players always appear town early on.
347 – Says again to lynch CES in lylo, mentions that he's been buddied by CES as scum before and to not let it happen this game.
408 – Calls CES the first alternate to his scumreads
516 – Put CES in his scumteam.
537 – Reiterates to lynch CES in lylo.
582 – Says that he could could "easily believe" a scumteam with CES in it.
664 – Same as before.
875 – Lays out a lynch order where CES is first on the chopping block if tchill flips town.
930 – This one is important – says to give CES some time,

but if town isn't winning before LyLo, CES is scum

. He also advocates lynching whoever is left in lylo that should've been nightkilled.
1146 Says that CES should be lower on Ran's readslist.
1160 – Places CES in the category of "don't let live to lylo".

As an aside, Llamarble's thoughts on marquis were that there were decent to very good reasons to townread him, and his lynch order had town leaving him alive until lylo. The llamarble kill day one is a point against marquis scum unless marquis is also scum with one of the people in marble's lynch order.

When it comes to postie, there's very little indication that postie would have gone after marquis and she had me as locktown. Her death clears the way for both of those pushes. This point less directly related to CES scum but still something i'd like to talk about later.

---

Now, a look at cogito ergo sum's use of NKA / his use of dead people's reads.

In 1557, CES says that 1160 would be where we should look given the marble kill, but the readslist in that post was heavily based around tchill being scum. One of the things marble was incredibly adamant on was that we not let CES get to lylo if town isn't winning by then. His readslist also wasn't lynch from the bottom up – he explicitly said that there was scum in the good but hard to read players.

In 2690, he says that if he doesn't care about marble's reads then nobody will as a defense of his TSQ read. Not only is this not true in the first place, but it's kind of a misrepresentation of what marble had made clear – people who are alive at lylo when they shouldn't be need to be lynched. The fact that he doesn't mention this nuance or seem to take it into account doesn't do anything to defend his weak TSQ read, and only furthers the idea of a scumteam there.

Let's look at another TSQ interaction based on marble's reads. In 2742, CES says that he feels good about sheeping marble's townread on TSQ because they know each other in real life and thus marble should have a good idea of how to read him. This again is just selectively choosing parts of what marble said.

2223 – Says that postie was killed because scum preferred to take out a scummier player with unknown reads, when postie had known reads outside of eddie.

2334 – Argues that the postie kill was to make me look better and to give me more sway to steer the lynch away from marquis. What? How does postie being dead, someone who had me as locktown, give me

more

town sway as opposed to less? If the scumteam actually cared about protecting marquis, they probably would've killed the person hard tunnelling him from day one – CES himself. The fact that he doesn't recognize this and this whole point are incredibly disingenuous.

When it comes to what dead townies have said and what the nightkills mean, CES cherrypicks the points that agree with him, ignores the ones that don't and makes disingenuous arguments.

---

4. VCA

I'm confident in saying that cogito ergo sum has voted only town this entire game.

The cogito ergo sum wagon never moves anywhere despite nobody really townreading him. Here are the people who have voted CES:
Day 1 – {Lycan, Ran, NSG}
Day 2 – {Eddie, Lycan}
Day 3 – {Lycan, Davsto, NSG, Ran}

Comparatively, the people who have voted marquis (excluding rvs) are:
Day 1 – {Davsto, Dunn, CES, Llama, Quick, Gamma}
Day 2 – {Ran, Eddie, Gamma, CES, Quick, Dunn}
Day 3 – {CES, Quick, Dunn, Ran, Gamma, TSQ}

The cogito ergo sum wagon doesn't take off because scum don't want it to. The marquis wagon does, the same way the eddie wagon did. If cogito ergo sum were town, his wagon should have taken off at some point during this game, but it hasn't – not even after ran was canvassing pretty hard for it.

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5. Defense of himself

Cogito ergo sum's defense of himself is notably lacking and inconsistent at times.

1662 – Ran brings up multiple valid points against CES, some of which i've talked about myself. His response is just to call the paragraph lots of spin with little substance and provide some self-meta of him as town.

2003 – His defense of the tchill lynch is to go back to his percentages without going in-depth as to why the percentages changed.

2279 – Discredits my push on him by discrediting both of my teammates' opinions, then tries to reduce my scumread on him to just his being on the lynches.

2534 – People (ran) apparently take this as some incredible reason to townread CES. I've responded to this already, but i'd like to reiterate some points.

CES says that he detailed the nature of his read change on tchill – my point is that his read change is justified with incredibly poor reasoning.
I made the point that he wasn't gamesolving, and he responded that he was solving the game and wasn't interested in "brownie points". He's not solving the game. He's not really coming up with any possible partners for marquis, he's not giving any thoughts as to what happens if he's wrong, he's not really sorting anyone else or looking for townreads (as we've gone over).

2571 – CES argues that scum marquis could just be saying that he townreads CES while a buddy of Marquis' pushes on CES, but he doesn't actually say who that buddy would be. In this same post he also talks about how he didn't like the tchill wagon, inconsistent with what he's been trying to tell me about his reasons for switching.

2690 – Basically completely ignores the question of what happens if marquis ends up being town.

2742 – Again discredits reads from my teammates saying that math is uninvested in the game.

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6. Conclusion

Cogito ergo sum has exclusively voted town, and has voted the low-hanging fruit in marquis every day so far.

He has almost no townreads – he's keeping his options open.

He's avoided talking about what happens if marquis flips town – again, keeping his options open.

He's selectively and disingenuously used NKA and the reads of dead townies to push things like the marquis wagon.

His wagon doesn't take off because scum don't want it to. This stands in contrast to other town wagons that we've seen in the game.

Cogito Ergo Sum is Scum.

[northsidegal]

It shows how often you were posting 'tomorrow' and then never posted. You have been prodded as well. Your presence had been severely lacking, Yet you are more present now then ever. Tell me, why are you more present now?

does this make him scum, somehow?

I think it's suspicious if a person keeps the same lynch pool, when it's only based on gut, and no other game solving or any other contribution. (Besides the meta case) I feel like Shea did plenty in Day 1, but much less Day 3. I feel like he is getting lazy.

you realize this perfectly describes cogito ergo sum, yes?

mathdino is saying that he thinks you're very biased by who's supporting the wagon you're currently on, and that effort isn't AI for marquis.

[northsidegal]

Ran, if you're back to marquis scum, then respond to these?

Spoiler:

from what i can tell most people's marquis scumreads are just from him not doing anything, but i don't think that reality and the idea of him being scum go together realistically. like, the reads that he's given today are completely wild and seem utterly inconsistent with any scum agenda: quick and davsto scumread in 2358 to dunn/ran scumreads in 2517 and a ran vote just don't make sense to me if marquis is scum. it's utterly inconsistent with any realistic scum agenda i could think of and heavily indicates to me town that can't get into the game rather than scum. combine that with 1487 and you see why i'm confident that marquis is the lynchbait.

ran, i really think you need to get off of this wagon. vote cogito ergo sum with me?

Marquis's #2517 is why he is scum. This is the post he would make in a game with PR's, where he would claim VT, to gain the reaction NSG has given in her #2549. Since there are no claims in this game, the best Marquis can do is make that post to survive and seem townie.

This is why I call your case confbiased, Ran. You're starting off with an explanation of why, as scum, marquis is

doing something

, but not of why he's scum in the first place. Why doesn't this post come from town marquis?

It would be fine if he actually tried to sort people and gave effort but he just sits there without doing anything else. He doesn't actually make use of his vote in the best way possible, which would be to wagon CES.

Sure, he's not doing much – why is it scum and not town who just can't get into the game? I've given reasons for why I think it's town who can't get into the game – what are your reasons for the contrary? Also, if marquis isn't scumreading CES, why would you expect him to vote there?

Marquis's #24 still looks forced, it again feels like a buddy voting a buddy to salvage their mistake since to them, it's magnified so they feel they have to fix it. Here Marquis mentions his read on NSG #42, but doesn't reply to Action Dan's #58, ever. That is also the time NSG stops replying, until she gets back in with her #138. I again stress the point that, scum would not weaken their position for any good reason but to progress their own win condition, and salvaging a buddy seems like what happened. Marquis lurked until his #381, giving excuses of being sick. In his #455 he looks at his wagon and picks Quick as being the most likely scum on his wagon, that's the most game content he shares on Day 1.

Stop doing pre-flip and just stop scumreading me in the first place. Like, I know it's not a convincing argument to say this and it normally bothers me when other people say this, but just stop scumreading me in the first place. This day will be far more productive and (in my opinion) likely to end in a scum lynch if you start there. Seriously – your team has me as hard town, postie literally had me as locktown, and i would literally

never

choose scum here. How much of your marquis scumread remains if you consider that i'm never partnered with him because i'm never scum in the first place?

In fact, (and this is something mathdino was talking to me about), who

do

you think marquis makes sense with as scum? Because just on a surface level analysis i think the fact that pretty much everyone seems okay with this lynch should be raising major flags for you. "But bussing!" i hear someone think – yes, bussing exists in white flag, but i wouldn't say it would ever happen on as nonsensical a level as this. I don't think anybody is getting major towncred from this lynch given that marquis is basically not around to give any interactions or do any theater to try to clear a scumbuddy. scum bussing here would basically just be putting themselves one lynch away from an instant loss when, if marquis were scum, there would be different and not much more difficult mislynch options available.

It doesn't make sense.

He doesn't even vote LQ until Screenplay is hammered, in his #1226. That vote was very badly timed. Marquis's #1466 shows that his early push on NSG was a farce, alongside him not actually considering Dan's point of view.

Do you expect someone to have the exact same read 1000 posts later that they did on page two? Also, he elaborated on his read on me in 1481 – does his reasoning there change anything, to you?

His #1481 reads to me as something he'd post to try to seem townie and leave the thread again without any further input, and a vote on LQ. #1493.

So in general: Marquis knows that early game is important to be in for a good position but screws that up, and gets wagoned, and lurks out of it to survive. His vote in EOD is badly timed, to cover for the fact that he has had no presence or intention to check in thread before. He checks in D2 to try to seem townie, and in D3 he tries to AtE a 'give up' post since there are no claims. He tries to seem townie to live, and isn't trying to progress the game. He is going to get lynched today. It is time.

You have again given reasons for why he would do something as scum but not for why those action makes him scum in the first place.

I really don't want to be spending time defending marquis like this – i would much rather be trying to figure out viable scumteams with you. it's just that i think you're pointed in the entirely wrong direction.

[northsidegal]

does this make him scum, somehow?

I would think so, yes. I don't see a pro-town reason for him to come out of the woodworks when his established pattern of presence was much less then that.

Are you saying it would be pro-town of him to continue his low activity?

you realize this perfectly describes cogito ergo sum, yes?

mathdino is saying that he thinks you're very

biased by who's supporting the wagon you're currently on, and that effort isn't AI for marquis

.

His isn't based on gut, and I can actually follow it. I am confused, can you elaborate further on this. Also, who's scum on a CES town flip? Who's scum on a CES scum flip?

CES' reasons aren't based on gut, they're based on very poor reasoning (as i went over in that huge case at the top of this page). Sincerely doubt cogito ergo sum flips town. If he does, it's some weird team with dunnstral. Scum probably won't bus CES, but the scumteam is {CES, TSQ, Dunnstral} i'm pretty sure. At the very least, lynching CES into {TSQ/Dunnstral} in any order should win the game.

[northsidegal]

Yes, I'll get to that. I want to ask what you think of his recent posts, by the way. Then compare it to how you are reading Dunn.

i think they're pretty much following the same pattern as i've gone over before. what's the comparison you're mkaing there with dunn?

[northsidegal]

Do you have anything to say about that massive case at the top of the page there? Also, to pull a you for a moment, waiting for responses to 3161 and 3163.

[northsidegal]

hi please let me respond to ces before hammering