Mini 1140 - Mafia Mishmash...Game Over!!

[subgenius]

Then the game is afoot.

After slaughtering a goat earlier today and examining its entrails, I have determined that one of the murderers has more numbers than letters in his name. The goat entrails have never lead me wrong before, Therefor...

VOTE: bgg1996

[subgenius]

1. EST
2. Negative
3. I haven't played enough games to have formed an opinion on this yet.
4. Pretty frequently.
5. I haven't played a ton of games, so I'm still working on this. On the one hand, you can't have a town full of leaders, but sheeping can be dangerous depending on who's doing the leading. That said, I prefer to do my own work when scum hunting.

I've played 2 full games, if anyone is wondering.

[subgenius]

My avatar is meant to be expressing anger at the use of "gut". FWIW, if I have a schtick on this site, it's for hating gut-based play.

Among the justifications for my points system is that it directly ties every single suspicion I have to specific reasons. (eg. if I find something scummy, I say why and then say, eg,

+5

. What this means is that my suspicions are always clearly linked to specific reasons.)

Hm, seems like a pretty powerful tool for giving your completely subjective observations a false air of objectivity. I do not like it. I'll reserve judgement until I've seen it in action for at least a little while, but I trust well reasoned cases better than I trust a tally of isolated scum tells.

@pappums
I appreciate that you respect my divination skills to such an extent that you will follow my lead even while directing an HoS at somebody else. Why would you not vote for your own suspect? Did you slaughter your own goat, or did you use an ouija board?

[subgenius]

Re: Abstaining from RVS=scummy

It's not scummy if other action is taken in lieu of RVS'ing. At this point, I don't think it's scummy, but hypothetically, if we don't see tclawren do anything productive in the next 2 weeks, I think it would be fair to point towards his refusal to RVS as his first infraction. That being said, at this point I don't find it scummy, and hopefully I won't find it scummy two weeks from now either.

[subgenius]

In other news, out of curiosity, if I were to cop to being a Town Miller, what would general reaction be?

I'm not a fan of this hypothetical question. Claim or don't. You'll find out what my reaction is if, and when, you claim.

[subgenius]

I fail to see how your miller question is any more useful than regfan's list. What have you concluded the two responses you received?

[subgenius]

concluded *from* the responses you received.

I shouldn't post after 2:30am.

[subgenius]

Votes don't count if they aren't

IN BIG BOLD LETTERS!

[subgenius]

Folks I'm finding scummy atm:

1)pappums rat for following my bgg1996 vote instead of following his own suspicions.
2)Anyone who hasn't posted yet. Granted, it's the weekend and people might have things to do, but lurking isn't cool. At least check in.

[subgenius]

@Subgenius: You are suspicious of anyone that has'nt posted yet? It has been around a day and as you said they could easily be doing anything.

That comes across as a filler comment.

Scummy was probably a stronger word than I should have used. Suffice it to say, I would like to hear from those who haven't posted yet.

[subgenius]

@bgg1996

Are you planning on answering the regfan questionnaire there, pal?

[subgenius]

I agree with what some others have said. Either Magnetic is a) scum, b) a townie who is willing to lie for very little reason, or c) a miniscule chance that he's actually a doctor. I'm willing to lynch either of "a" or "b". The reason for lynching "a" is obvious. The reason for lynching "b" is that if I can't trust that someone isn't playing around with gambits and reaction tests, I can't read them as scum or town, and I don't want that kind of player making things more difficult down the road. Even on the off chance that "c" is true, magnetic will either be NK'd immediately or set us up for some really fruitless WIFOM if he isn't.

I'm willing to hammer Magnetic, but i want to hear what he has to say nos that he's at L-1. He'd have to make an amazing amount of sense to change my mind, though.

[subgenius]

I have no problem with prolonging the day a bit, but magnetic needs to be lynched in the end. ATM, I am not liking bgg's posts. Posting pressure vote analogies is not useful in any way whatsoever, and this analysis of magnetic's claim makes no sense:

What do you think the possibility is that Magnetic is Strong doctor?
That would explain why he claimed weak doctor, why he didn't know what it did, perhaps why he thought that claiming a role that he didn't know what did would clear himself.
He could've been scared that he would die, and take back his claim, and then put it back when he realizedit made him more suspiscious.
It's possible, if not likely.

As I said, this makes no sense at all, and I see scum motivation behind it regardless of how magnetic flips. If magnetic is scum, this, along with his insistence on extending the day is pretty damning. If magnetic is town, I see this as an attempt to get townie cred by being the only person who gave magnetic the benefit of the doubt. The logic here is just too twisted. It's more likely to have come from a scum trying to force a point while having an ulterior motive in mind than to have come from a townie expressing a sincere belief.

I'm not going to vote magnetic, because the consensus seems to favor chatting a bit more, and I have no problem with that, but magnetic must die, bgg1996 is not far behind him though. Fortunately, that's where my vote was already anyway.

[subgenius]

I know I just finished saying that I wasn't going to vote for you, but this post pissed me off. You're either scum, or you're a troll. I'm more than happy to lynch either. If somebody else on your wagon wants to unvote to prolong the day, they're welcome to it, but I personally hope they don't.

unvote

vote: Magnetic

[subgenius]

Btw, that's L-1 for those who aren't counting.

[subgenius]

I'll be so pissed if he actually was the doctor. Not regretful, just angry.

[subgenius]

In response to Regfan's questions:
1) I'm guessing 3 mafia of a single faction and an SK.
3) I'm not seeing too much of use there.

@Truant
Are you thinking that Yura is a SK or mafia? tclawren was stabbed, not shot, meaning he was probably killed by the SK, so if you're saying he was targeted on the basis of having an accurate read, it could only have been by the SK. The SK would have no way of knowing how accurate his mafia reads were, just as the mafia would have no way of knowing how accurate his SK reads were.

vote bgg1996

Although his theory was partly right, since magnetic turned out to be a doc, I still don't like this post.
ISO #3

What do you think the possibility is that Magnetic is Strong doctor?
That would explain why he claimed weak doctor, why he didn't know what it did, perhaps why he thought that claiming a role that he didn't know what did would clear himself.
He could've been scared that he would die, and take back his claim, and then put it back when he realizedit made him more suspiscious.
It's possible, if not likely.

I find this theory to be extremely far fetched, and I don't think it would serve any use for a town player. While a town player might accept that such a theory is possible, there's no reason for paying any attention to it, because it's so unlikely. I think the probable explanation of this post is that bgg1996 is scum and saw magnetic make a horrible play that would almost certainly get him lynched. Knowing that magnetic was actually town, bgg made this post in an effort to gain credibility after magnetic was lynched and flipped town.

[subgenius]

Wait, did that mean that the weak doctor did what the wiki says it does, or what magnetic said it did?

There's no way for us to know, and it's irrelevant anyway.

I disagree with your thoughts on Bgg. The probable explanation is that Bgg was trying to justify completely irrational actions on the part of someone who was later banned for trolling, and stretched a little bit into the realm of the improbable.

What reason would he have to justify magnetic's actions? If bgg was a townie and thought magnetic was also town, he would want to justify magnetic's actions, but I would expect him to have better reasons than an admittedly far fetched hypothetical scenario.

bgg1996, feel free to answer this as well.

[subgenius]

So... you thought he was scum, but your first reaction was to propose a scenario in which he was just a confused townie. Secondly, there's no way we could have confirmed magnetic's role, regardless of how long the day went. I would also deem it extremely unlikely that we would be able to ascertain the identity, not to mention the existence of the SK, by extending the day.

[subgenius]

Also, as an overall meta standpoint that I firmly believe in: if we punish scum for making "optimal" decisions (killing those who are a threat to them) by analyzing every NK for motivation, then we can force them into making suboptimal decisions because they don't want to get outed. Therefore, by forcing them into making suboptimal decisions we can gain a slight advantage resulting more often in a town win.

Scum know that their targets are going to be examined and pick them accordingly. Knowing this, it's foolish to read too much into why the targets were chosen. We can't know the scum motivation for killing any particular player, so it would be unwise to lynch somebody on the basis of assuming we know those motivations. The killer might have picked tclawren because he considered him a strong town candidate, but unlikely to be watched. He might have picked him purely randomly. He might have picked him with the intention of making the exact argument you're making on D2 to fuel the lynch of an innocent. Also, the "optimal" kill isn't necessarily the player that has already expressed suspicion of the actual scum, it could be the player that is considered most likely to eventually pin point the scum and lead a wagon against him. Further, the scum know that their targets are going to be examined and pick them accordingly. Knowing this, it's foolish to read too much into why the targets were chosen.

Overall, I consider this reason for voting pretty poor.

Also, if you think Yura is the SK, who are you thinking is mafia? Why didn't you analyze Pappum's death in a similar way as tclawren's? This seems exceedingly scummy imo, because only mafia would be solely interested in finding the SK.

[subgenius]

Tbh, I did do some pretty lazy cut/paste editing after I wrote it, so I guess I wouldn't be surprised if it has the appearance of a misordered ramble. Sorry. I guess the last three lines are all that's really needed.

[subgenius]

@subgenius: Yes, cause scum plan for nk analysis to intentionally gimp themselves first night when they don't know whether or not the NK will be analyzed. Yes, they *might* have done anything, but the most logical and best choice for them typically is removing threats to them.

Scum would be have to be full of idiots to not consider the likelihood that the town will go back and re-read the opinions of their victims. Again, scum has every reason to try to remove threats, but D1 fos's are not the only criteria that scum would use to in judging how threatening a townie is, and to lynch based on that basis is foolish.

I analyzed the SK first to see if there was a good start on eliminating an anti-town NK right off the bat. We can't be assured that they'll go for scum (or that they'll even hit scum) so therefore I'd rather get rid of them if I can since I don't believe that it's a vig.

That makes sense, but there were two victims, and you only analyzed the presumed SK victim. If your method is valid at all, it would work just as well against mafia, but you didn't even make an attempt. I'll agree that taking out the single SK is more beneficial than taking out one of several mafia, but catching one of each is better. You didn't even make an attempt to create a mafia lead.

As it turns out, both victims seemed to have yura as their top suspects, so you would have ended up with the same conclusion either way, but you didn't even bother to look into pappums. There are only mafia motivations for this.

[subgenius]

Is there a reason I shouldn't ask the question?

The reason is that the answer only benefits scum. Even if he answers no, it still benefits scum. Whether or not you believe he's clever enough to refuse an answer is irrelevant. You asked a question that would have helped scum decide their NK's if he had answered.

This doesn't strike me as over analyzing a single post. It's just a straight out scummy thing to do.

[subgenius]

There was zero chance that the question would be answered.

I'm not going to continue this stupid, and completely worthless argument any further.
Unless, maybe, anybody does something either scummy, or extremely stupid.

You really can't say there was zero chance, and I still don't understand why you bothered to write such a question at all.

BTW, knowing the specifics of how a weak doctor works will offer literally no insights into the set up. Even if it worked as magnetic suggested, I would hesitate to use that information to conclude that we have an SK rather than a vig.

Also, when are you going to start scum hunting instead of trying to get the mod to answer questions about the setup? You've said that you suspect everybody who voted for magnetic, and yet you've done literally nothing to generate leads on any of them, instead choosing to complain about the D1 lynch, speculate on set up, and possibly sniff out town power roles. I'm baffled as to why you only have one vote on you.

[subgenius]

2. The reason I am not naming said individuals, is because I wasn't saying "I suspect these people, the people who did this.", I was saying "Doing this is a scummy thing to do". Does that make sense to you?

I think you'd better narrow this down, seeing as you've implicated 70 percent of the town.

[subgenius]

To be fair, statistically he has also identified at least two scum in the pile.

Lol, funny point, but if bgg is scum, there could be as few as one scum in that pile.

[subgenius]

True, but as stated, I consider there to be a very slim chance that this is true. Present, but slim.

I'll agree that there are likely 2 or 3 scum that voted for magnetic, but it's silly to say that voting for Magnetic was scummy, because obviously there were plenty of townies that did it too.

[subgenius]

The people that I would be referring to are not unidentified. You can find out who they are whenever you feel like it. The fact that you do not do so makes me think that you want me to say their names, so that you can make a big thing about how those people have nothing scummy about them, and make a case on me for it.

You said that you are suspicious of the players who voted for magnetic. This statement is useless if you refuse to narrow that list down. Seven people voted for magnetic, and they can't all be scum. I do want you to name some players, and I do want you to make a case for them, because as of now, I have no reason to believe that you're interested in actually finding scum. I'm far more disturbed by your refusal to cite any specific cases than I would be if you posted a case that I didn't fully agree with.

In fact, if we're going to analyze the magnetic wagon, I think it would be just as useful to argue that since it's unlikely that every scum player would have joined the lynch, either you, Regfan, or CKD is probably scum. I have a strong suspicion that it's you.

If you had to pick out one or two who would you pick?

At this point, I would say Truant and yura-chi. Depending on bgg1996's flip, S_C.

[subgenius]

Anyway, I didn't specify seven people with that statement. The way it is worded, I only specified two.

Alright, I see what you meant now. It's pretty damn irritating when someone would rather be needlessly enigmatic than provide a simple clarification when it's obvious that a few people misunderstood.

Now that I realize you're claiming to find SC and me suspicious (or maybe not, I still don't know... You think I did something scummy, but that doesn't mean you suspect me. Is that right?), I have to wonder why you have been content to continue spending time wondering about setup, complaining about the length of D1, and leading us around in circles by refusing to clarify needlessly vague posts rather than trying to apply pressure to your suspects (or people who did something scummy but aren't suspects?).

[subgenius]

At this point, I would say Truant and yura-chi. Depending on bgg1996's flip, S_C.

I've been trying to figure out why this statement bothered me. It's the bit I bolded. I dislike the fact that you're talking with a specific confidence that he IS going to flip shortly.

I didn't intend to convey any certainty that bgg would be lynched anytime soon. After all, it wouldn't make much sense to be cocky about his lynch since I'm still the only vote for him. I just meant to indicate that your consistent defense of bgg would look quite suspicious if he ends up flipping mafia anytime in the future.

Also, if the only defense of bgg is that he looks too scummy to actually be scum, I'm quite content with my vote.

That being said Subgenius comment has made me have a bit of a rethink.

Could you explain this?

I just reread Andrew(doesn't take long) and I am seriously worried about him.

I agree with you here about this, at least.

[subgenius]

I'm not going to say I agree with Andrew's case, but I think what he's trying to say is that he thinks that you led off D2 with an immediate vote for Yura and no discussion of the lynch in an attempt to avoid scrutiny for hammering. The fact that you hammered isn't necessarily scummy, it's that he thinks you were trying to avoid addressing it at the beginning of today.

[subgenius]

My opinion of the D1 lynch is that it had to be done, and I don't think there was much benefit to be gained from extending the day. Magnetic absolutely had to be either lynched or force replaced. Also, I'm pissed off that a troll forced us into a situation where we had to lynch the doctor on D1 in a game with two killing sources. That completely sucks.

IMO, we've spent our one policy lynch on magnetic. Assuming we're dealing with an SK, we'll probably be losing two townies each night, and we can't afford to lynch anybody else for any reason other thinking they're scum. Being an unhelpful townie isn't enough. If we mislynch today, we could very easily be dealing with 3 town against 4 scum tomorrow.

As far as my opinion on Andrew... I just don't know. I have trouble reading posters that don't make a lot of sense. My official opinion on Andrew is, "I don't know, and I'm not comfortable lynching someone I'm not pretty sure about in our current situation." If I were to agree to anything resembling a VI policy lynch, Yura would be my pick.

[subgenius]

Updating as I go (from page 9)
this comes out of fucking NO WHERE...this reeks of someone(s) thinking I am a threat and being directed to start pushing something on me...why me out of everyone who is left?...

I wasnt on the fucking townie lynch....

Why did you feel it was necessary to mention that you weren't involved in magnetic's lynch?

[subgenius]

Cute dialogue

That's a nice script, but one thing I don't understand is why person 1 waited until the end to start (questionably) scum hunting instead of wasting person 2's time by speaking in twisted analogies and parables.

You expect me to believe that it's a coincidence that Magnetic guessed that there were two killing sources?

Why on earth does it matter at this point? I know you're trying to use this information to confirm the existence of an SK, but knowing the specifics of Magnetic's role is not going to do that. If you want 95% confirmation, all you have to do is look at the night kills. Tclawren makes absolutely no sense as a vig kill, so it must have been an SK. There, question answered. On the off chance I'm wrong, hooray, I have a pleasant surprise.

Vig or SK is completely irrelevant at this point, particularly because if we mislynch today, an SK would have nearly as much motivation to try to NK a mafia member as a vig would. Even if there is a vig, how is it going to change your play? It shouldn't at all. If you're town, either way you should be hunting scum.

The question of SK or vig concerns mafia more than it concerns town, and I'm pretty worried by the fact that you're still hung up on this issue. I consider it a scum tell both because I feel that it has become a substitute for meaningful scum hunting and because the information you're digging for is more important to mafia than it is to town.

[subgenius]

Today:

I also believe that it's easier to pin down one person's motivations than a group so I decided to analyze the SK's decision over the mafia's decision first when I had little time to analyze everything the way I would like to.

Friday:

I analyzed the SK first to see if there was a good start on eliminating an anti-town NK right off the bat.

It appears that your reason for focusing on the SK rather than the mafia have changed over the last day. I also notice that you offered justification for not investigating the mafia even though Vollkan never asked for any, perhaps because you've realized that omitting an analysis of the mafia kill was a slip.

[subgenius]

Have you dropped your suspicions of SC and Subgenius?

But don't you see? Bgg didn't think SC and I were suspicious, he just thought we had done suspicious things.

I would define a suspicious action as one that would cause an observer to become suspicious of an individual who performed such an action, but bgg1996 appears to have a more nuanced understanding of the word.

I will say that I don't understand why Andrew not posting for a day means new suspects have to be found. I will also say that he has not seemed to put a lot of effort into finding anybody else to suspect. Instead he's continuing to badger the mod for set up clues and to seemingly go out of his way to avoid clarifying his earlier comment about suspecting those who voted for magnetic in clear terms. If anybody still doesn't understand what bgg1996 was saying when he voiced suspicion for those who voted for magnetic after he issued his warning, please tell me. I would be happy to explain it in the interest of not seeing bgg1996 write another crappy analogy to explain an idea that could easily be explained in a simple sentence.

[subgenius]

i think this is starting to get interesting... since everyone's opinions are different were going to have a long day time so that means more time to hunt scum!

Don't say you're going to scum hunt. Just scum hunt. Who do you think is scum right now, and why? It's okay if you're not sure about your reads, just give your very best 2 or 3 guesses and reasons.

Also, I'd like to ask what you think about the source of the second kill last night. Do you think it was a serial killer or vigilante, and why? Why do you think each of the victims was chosen?

[subgenius]

Anybody else think it's a bit unusual that 4 of the 6 people with votes for them have votes from the person that they're voting for? I'm not accusing all of those people of OMGUS necessarily, but it's a little strange and maybe even concerning.

[subgenius]

subgenius: conversation to yura looks like coaching

I was going for more of a "good cop" kind of approach, but I can see how they'd look similar.

[subgenius]

@Andrew:

I'll repost this request from Vollkan, because you must have missed it:

The fact you need to ask this is proof that you are lurking.

Time to issue my tried-and-tested ultimatum: Read up, or replace out

Please give us, in your next post, two sentences minimum on each player telling us your opinion of them.

If you can't or won't, for any reason, do that, then leave.

[subgenius]

Sub, who is your strongest two FoS's right now and why?

Am I really that hard to read on this?
1)bgg1996:General avoidance of scum hunting, seems more concerned with confirming vig/sk than finding scum, wasting time by refusing to clarify simple statements for no reason, and subjectively, I think he was trying to gain townie cred by arguing to delay magnetic's lynch.
Tie for number 2:
2a)Truant: I feel that he's borderline lurking, I think his case on Yura was too easy and not at all compelling, and I think the fact that he only analyzed the SK kill at the beginning of the day could very well be a scum slip.
2b)Yura-chi: General pattern of waffling on votes and no-content posts that seem intended to appear town-like.

[subgenius]

@andrew

Truant and Yura are 2a and 2b because I was posting my fos's in order of certainty but I don't have a strong opinion on which of the of them is more likely to be scum. Bgg1996 is my strongest read, though.

Re: Yura and trying to look town
Going back through her ISO, it's not quite as prevalent as I thought, but there are still a few glaring examples:

i think this is starting to get interesting... since everyone's opinions are different were going to have a long day time so that means more time to hunt scum!

You know what think what u guys want but all I'm saying is I'm townie alligned u guys believe what you want....

ehhh!?!? im dat big of a threat???

But going back through her ISO, I'm seeing more attempts at adding content than I first realized. They're not great attempts, but they're there. I'm interested to see who her fos's are, and I'm seeing some things in her response about the vig/sk, but I'll wait until she releases her fos's to talk about them.

[subgenius]

I'm thinking myself in circles on Yura. I have no idea. I'm starting to rethink my fos of her, though. This fos retraction is very tentative and subject to change.

[subgenius]

Anyway, I feel I'm not contributing as much as I should. Just thought I'd say it before vollkan gives me points for it.
Forgive me if I tunnel a bit to make up for it.

I realize there's a certain amount of sarcasm here, but if there's any amount of truth, it's fairly scummy.

[subgenius]

Pig latin? Clever. The only reason I can imagine for this is that you're trying to get under my skin by continuing to avoid writing concise and direct content. I cannot fathom a pro-town reason for doing this.

To answer your question (even though I suspect that you are fully aware of the answer), It's scummy because scum hunting or doing anything else for the purpose of not appearing scummy is scummy. Town hunts scum because it helps acheive their win condition, not because it makes them look town.

[subgenius]

@bgg1996
Erm, that quote is talking about not giving up and taking a lynch without defending yourself, which is not the situation you are in at all.

Town players do not scum hunt because it makes them look like a good guy. Town players scum hunt because that is how a town player wins. Scum players scum hunt because it makes them look like town.

To a townie, anything to help not get me lynched is PRO-TOWN.

Absolutely not true. For example, false claiming a power role might prevent you from getting lynched, but it is not pro-town, because it can result in outing a real power role or taking doctor protections from real power roles. That is not pro-town at all. An individual townie doesn't win by surviving at all costs. He wins by finding scum and getting them lynched.

My problem with what you said at the end there Sub is that I often worry about looking town when I play town. I think carefully about everything I say hoping it's not going to come off as being a scummy thing to do. Because town don't want to be thought of as scum any more then scum do.

You could probably accomplish the same thing by worrying about whether or not what you're saying is logical and helpful. Town absolutely has an incentive to not appear scummy, but they do this by authentically doing things a townie should be doing, not by going out of their way to do things that will hopefully make other people think he's on the town's side. "I will make this case so that people don't suspect me of being scum," is absolutely not a townie thought process. The townie thought process is "I will make this case, because I think this person might be scum."

[subgenius]

Anyway, you have yet to tell me

why

my argument is BS.
My argument is specifically made against this sentence
"It's scummy because scum hunting or doing anything else for the purpose of not appearing scummy is scummy."
"It's scummy because scum hunting or

doing anything else for the purpose of not appearing scummy is scummy.

"
"

Defending yourself is scummy

."

I'll accept that your rebuttal to my argument is accurate. Defending against accusations is not scummy, so I was wrong to say that anything done for the purpose of not appearing scummy is scummy.

However, I specifically said that you are being scummy if you are scum hunting out of a desire to appear town aligned. So I hope other players will note that you don't appear to disagree with the part of my sentence where I say that scum hunting for the sake of not appearing scummy is scummy, since you did not bold that portion.

tl;dr: I was partly wrong, defending yourself is not scummy, but we both seem to agree that scum hunting to appear townie is scummy. You announced plans to do just that, therefor you were acting scummy.

[subgenius]

Is anybody else willing to put some more votes on bgg in the hopes that he'll start talking sense? I'm tired of him spewing completely worthless arguments, and I don't think anything is going to change his ways other than some actual heat put on him. Bgg, if you're town, you need to start making yourself an asset pronto. You are very near the point of no return with me.

I'll make sure to NK you for that statement.

Please explain why this doesn't mean what I (and apparently maxous) think it means.

Honestly, I just checked whether or not Jesters are allowed in normals, because bgg is completely off the wall here. BTW, they're not.

[subgenius]

I'm not sure I like the phrase "point of no return" From Sub. It sounds too much like you're either a) intending to lynch him for being useless, town or no(this is a mistake) or b) intending to keep him even if you think he's scum just for being useful.

Believe it or not, I've tried to stay open minded about bgg. He is my top suspect, but I'm willing to change my reads. He has not improved at all since my original suspicions. If anything, he has gotten worse. If he had shown any interest in scum hunting or analyzing cases in anything except the most hairsplittingly semantic terms, I might have moved my attention elsewhere, but with very few exceptions, he hasn't. The longer he does this, the less I can believe he is a town player who is simply off his game.

At this point, it's reaching the point where the only explanation in my mind is that he's acting so scummy in the belief that nobody would actually believe scum to be so blatant. There is no town motivation in his posts. Most of the time when you see anti-town behavior, you can at least see how the anti-town player is really trying to help, but that is utterly absent in bgg's posts. He is being worse than useless, and not in a way that bad town players are useless. I get the distinct sense that he is being intentionally counterproductive, and there is absolutely no reason for town to purposely be so bad.

At the risk of this becoming a bgg-yurachi see-saw, Yura+5

Come on man, lets make bgg squirm a bit. I'm sick of his crap. Don't be a slave to your score sheet! Lets get some votes here. We don't have more than two votes on anybody, and that's part of the reason we aren't getting anywhere. Lets do this thing.

Who else wants in?

If we aren't going to bandwagon bgg, we need to get on someone else. Keeping a bunch of people at L-5 and L-4 isn't working.

[subgenius]

2) Hypocrisy (Ironically, this is a perfect demonstration of what I was arguing earlier about tu quoque. Whilst Yura is completely correct about bgg's useless arguments, it is hypocritical and thus scummy for yura to vote bgg on that basis - even though the reason why yura is voting bgg is actually valid)

I've found your scum tells to be pretty solid up to this point, but I don't agree that hypocrisy is a scum tell. If making crappy arguments is a scumtell when bgg does it, then it's also a scum tell when yura does it, but it's not scummy for either of them to say the other is scummy for making poor arguments. If one of them wants to build a case against the other why should he be forced to make his case weaker by omitting the mention of poor arguments?

[subgenius]

@Maxous, Truant, and bgg

This day has gone on long enough that your votes should be somewhere.

[subgenius]

b) Player X does genuinely believe A to be a scumtell.

b) is, on first glance, consistent with Player X being either town or scum. However, if Player X is town, this simply doesn't make sense - because Player X has a firsthand understanding of how it is that a townie could do A.

Here's the thing, though. There are very few, if any, scum tells that town don't engage either due to carelessness or poor play. If you really thought that scum tells are defined as actions that only scum do, then you'd only need to see one of them from a player to conclude that they are definitely scum. Scum tells are useful because we believe they are actions that are

more likely

to have been performed by scum, a hypocritical town player knows with certainty that his scummy actions were not the result of scum motivations, but he can't say that about any other player, and he shouldn't hesitate to point that scummy action out (although he should probably be prepared to explain his own scummy behavior afterwards).

[subgenius]

I'd probably be willing to support a wagon on any of those 3, especially Truant or CKD. I feel like they're both managing to fly under the radar, and it's not kosher at all.

[subgenius]

People have tried. Tried for many years.
And failed.

I don't understand why you signed up for this game. Btw, you're ignoring some questions.

fly under the radar????..ha.

will be giving this game the update treatment in the next 24.

You haven't posted in over two days, and you pop in right after your name is mentioned with a promise of giving an update within the next 24 hours? That's bs.

strong fos on CKD

[subgenius]

I approve of any Truant votes. He's definitely near the top of my scum list. I'm saddened by the lost bgg vote, though.

[subgenius]

Both those questions rely on a subjective judgement of how likely an action is to be performed by one alignment or the other. Like it or not, in most circumstances, "more likely" is the best we have to go on. For example, your question, "Can I see this person reasonably doing X action as town?" If the answer is no, the next question has to be, "What chance is there that this person is a townie acting unreasonably?" Because townies act unreasonably all the time. If Yura is town, she would certainly realize that town players can be useless as well, but that doesn't mean that she can't find uselessness generally suspicious or think that bgg's particular type of uselessness is extra suspicious or think that he should be encouraged to explain himself and shape up. You, yourself said that she her reasons for voting bgg were valid. If she's right, she's right. She's still scummy for being useless, but not extra scummy for pointing out uselessness in another player.

Actually, I looked back at post 468, and aside from containing the charge of hypocrisy, which I disagree with, it also contains some serious contradictions. I don't find this scummy necessarily, but it does make me wonder if you drummed up a post to put Yura back at the top of your list with a particular motive in mind.

[subgenius]

Previous post is directed at Vollkan. Yura posted while I was writing.

[subgenius]

Is there a prod out on Truant?

No. But it is not far off.

[subgenius]

This is why I was hestitant to vote earlier, Sub. I get indecisive about lynches. :/

No kidding, if it weren't for the fact that you've voted for all 3 of my top suspects (Yura has lost my temporary fos suspension), I'd find these quick vote changes quite alarming.

[subgenius]

right after = 5 hours???? noted

I posted "24 hours" because I couldnt meeting the deadline of my previous post..I am sure you have noted that I havent posted anywhere on site...i am sure you noted that during the week days I post after a certian time...and I am sure you have been in a postion in a game, where you dont have time to post an fucking giant updating post, but DO have enough time to pop in a sentence or two...

5 hours is not a very long time in a game that can last months. Believe it or not, I have not checked your posting outside this thread, and I don't really care about it. It's quite possible that you simply don't have time, but I have seen scum coast by using similar methods, so I find it suspicious. You're not on my lynchable list at this point, so don't worry about it too much.

[subgenius]

was making a point, he says my actions were scummy yesterday, yet I wasnt involved in a quick lynch of a townie (this was just one of the many reasons I feel like a scum group to include Regfan feels I am a threat). He came out of the gate swinging at me, I want to know why when this game is chalked full of actual scummy people.

If you think that not being in on a townie lynch makes you less suspicious, you are mistaken, and the fact that you would cite your absence from the wagon for the purpose of demonstrating your town status does not reflect well on you. It would be beyond easy for a scum player to avoid a near certain town lynch wagon with the intention of making the exact point you're trying to make.

[subgenius]

ermm i just noticed. if you look at ckd, earlier, he calls me dumbass (or something) for my comment of his '1000 games under belt'. later on, he quotes my comment AGAIN and makes a different response. infact, as i look at his post, it seems hes just opening 2 windows, one typing, and the other one quoting and responding to absolutely everything. this reads scum.

You'll have to explain why this is scummy. I don't get it. I won't deny that it results in enormous walls of unfocused remarks, but I don't see it as scummy.

[subgenius]

thus: wall of fluff

I think I see what you're saying. With long catchup posts, a player is able to produce a lot of content about what has already happened without really affecting the current direction of the game very much, which could be construed as a tactic for avoiding attention. For the moment, I don't think that's his intention, but I see your point.

[subgenius]

Just finished briefly reading Andrews scum games, his playstyle in them is almost identical to that of this game. For anyone else interested in reading them, they are:

Did you read his town games too? I'm not a huge fan of meta cases in the first place, but I'm even less persuaded when someone only links to three games with no indication that he's compared the player's scum games and town games. How is his town play and scum play different and where do you see him displaying his scum tendencies in this game?

Again, I don't disagree with you - I just think we are talking at cross-purposes.

I don't think we're getting anywhere here. I understand what you're saying, but I still firmly disagree. This more or less confirms my earlier concerns about your scoring system. Again, I'm not saying this is scummy, but if it ever comes to a point where you need to convince me to change my vote you'd better have a case to give, because a composite score of unspecified subjective scum tells is not going to do it for me.

*sigh* Actually, against my better judgement, I'm going to look at this yura +5 scum points post and unravel it and explain why I think it's bad. We're probably going to waste another 4 posts on it each and I'm not sure it'll be useful, but I'm having trouble biting my tongue.

well i don't mean to bandwagon but i think sub is making sense bgg is getting into useless arguements (tho i don't really think i have any say in this, since everyone also thinks i'm useless and dumb) and i wanna see how he wud react if he face some heat

At the risk of this becoming a bgg-yurachi see-saw, Yura+5

Unvote, Vote: Yura

1)

Once again, Yura jumps on a bandwagon for crappy reasons.

2) Hypocrisy (Ironically, this is a perfect demonstration of what I was arguing earlier about tu quoque. Whilst Yura is completely correct about bgg's useless arguments, it is hypocritical and thus scummy for yura to vote bgg on that basis - even though

the reason why yura is voting bgg is actually valid

)
3)

Explicitly voting to add pressure

4) The fact that Yura has not been involved with any of the extensive prior debate on bgg, but suddenly decides to vote for bgg (

for weak, short reasons

) as soon as subg invites a wagon

Alright, first, the bolded portion contradicts the bold italicized portions.
1)Contradiction is pretty clear
3)If she expressed a valid reason to vote, I really don't see it being scummy to add that part of the reason for her vote is to ratchet up pressure on bgg, especially since I explicitly said that more pressure on bgg might be useful.
4)clear contradition with the bolded part. Reasons were short, but short valid reasons are better than long invalid ones. I can't really argue about the bandwagon charge. I don't find it scummy, because she did exactly as I asked, but if someone else thinks that bandwagonning is scummy in general, it's hard to say she didn't do that.

Now as for point (2). Besides what I've already said about not finding hypocrisy to be a scum tell, I don't think she was being hypocritical. If you read Yura's post, she accuses bgg of "making useless arguments," While she admits not to being "useless and dumb" but of being thought of as "useless and dumb". Making "useless arguments" and being thought of as "useless and dumb" are two different things, which invalidates the charge of hypocrisy. Both involve being useless, but one is a judgement by others while the other is a deliberate act of creating dumb arguments. Even if she actually admitted to being useless and dumb, that is still not the same thing as making dumb arguments.

I want to be clear here. I am not doing this because I want to defend Yura. I am doing this because I want to show that Vollkan is not an infallibly logical scum hunting robot as he would like to portray himself. I think this was a pretty poor post, and an extremely bad set of reasons for switching a vote from another serious scum suspect. If a different player switched votes off of a wagon just as it was gaining steam using this post as justification, I would not have a problem calling it quite scummy. With Vollkan, I'm not quite as sure, because I realize that he's dogmatically following a scoring system that allows this kind of flip flopping. I can't say whether it's the system that's to blame or Vollkan.

I'm dreading the theory discussion this will probably spawn, but as I said, I was having trouble continuing to bite my tongue on it.

[subgenius]

AND THEN, he says "maybe you think I'm scummy, but it doesn't matter cause you're actually scum." THAT IS NOT DEFENSE! THIS IS NOT A TOWN PLAY. Forget the meta and everything else, THIS is the worst, scummiest play I have seen so far this game.

I missed that. I agree that is a crappy defense and a poor town play. Looking back over this latest exchange between you and Andrew, I'll agree that Andrew comes out looking paranoid and (poorly) overly defensive.

Why is he so concerned about you putting a vote on him, when your vote is already there? Why is he so concerned about "weird" being a code word for suspicious, when you've been more than to call out suspicious actions so far? Andrew is looking quite overly sensitive to minor pressure.

[subgenius]

im not listening to a thing you are saying, and it seems to me you are discreting making me stop 'looking into this' by a hidden threat of

'weird' = 'if you talk more about it = i vote'

I could be misinterpreting this sentence, but the bold section seems to say that you think that by calling your fixation on CKD's post style "weird" he was threatening to vote you. He already had his vote on you, though. Basically, the passage seems hyper-defensive.

I'll wait until Truant finishes catching up to comment on his latest post.

[subgenius]

I wanted to wait until Truant had posted his second catch up post to comment on his vote for bgg, because I wanted to allow him a chance to convey his opinions without getting defensive. I find the vote a little out of place and poorly explained. He did elaborate in his most recent post, though I'm still not sure I'm satisfied with it.

To be honest, I'm losing steam on my scum reads here, and I think I need to do some re-reading. bgg has settled down a bit, and while he isn't being any more helpful, he's not being as flagrantly obnoxious as he was for while. Also, S_C's insistent defense of bgg is starting to sway me a little bit. I just don't know, but I think I need to look back over the game and check my opinions, but not tonight, because I've got a nasty headache, and looking at the screen while I'm writing this post is making it worse.

@vollkan
What do you think of Truant's vote on bgg?

[subgenius]

I agree with Maxous on this one. I just don't see SK going out of his way to shoot his fos on N1. That would make sense on N2 here if we mislynch, but not N1.

I haven't done a full re-read of the thread, but I have re-read truant's ISO, and I don't like it. So far, he's been on the magnetic wagon, yura wagon, and bgg wagon (he was also the 3rd person to fos or vote tclawren after he refused to RV). Granted, he was the first voter for Yura today, but I think it's fair to say that she was the second most likely lynch candidate from D1, and there was a good chance some of that momentum would carry into today. Also, he completely flip flopped from a town read on Yura to voting her overnight based on some very shaky NK analysis. Now, he's voting for bgg for similarly shaky reasons (a single quote). Based on his support for the biggest wagons and votes with weak reasoning, I'm getting the impression that Truant is putting his vote on whoever he feels will be easiest to lynch rather than who he most suspects.

For reference, here are his votes accompanied with the reasons he provides:

Vote: tclawren Since if you're not going to vote, your vote should at least be on your sleeve and not in your pocket.

Magnetic should be insta-lynched.
Unvote
Vote: Magnetic

This time for pretty much exactly the reasons that Vol stated, you don't decide to gambit as town for no reason, then ungambit, then regambit. If you're actually a town doc, you don't claim at L-6; so that's out. Really the only options left are non-town.

Couple thoughts: tclawren most likely was onto something since stabbing is typically an SK flavor (gogo mod-guessing); and SK's normally try to hit town and lynch scum while they're at it. Either way, (if there's an SK or a Vig) I doubt that there's only 2 mafia since mods generally don't like it if there's a chance that a scumgroup could theoretically be eliminated d1 (lynch and being NK'd would wipe out a scumgroup of 2). To support this, I don't really think that anyone ever expressed real suspicion of tcl yesterday (though while being trolled by (was town, now officially a troll banned loser) magnetic) that's less of a point.

Looking back at TCL's posts, he really was only suspicious of Yura before Magnetic's claim.

(quote from vollkan)

Have I tunneled already? I didn't think I even made an accusation yet.

(blah blah blah)

O.o Yay for basically admitting that you're scum.

Vote: bgg1996

I won't deny that all of these people were scummy in their own way, but he has consistently voted the most vulnerable targets without giving convincing reasons, which I find concerning.

@bgg
We do seem to be slowing down a bit, and I think part of it is that we haven't put any serious pressure on anyone. Nobody's gotten closer than L-3. We're too divided and it's resulting in a bunch of half-assed pressure that isn't accomplishing anything. I don't know what to do about it besides complain, though.

[subgenius]

If a hypothetical stereotypical serial killer is going out of his/her way to kill somebody who he/she thinks is mafia, which, as my quote says, is the biggest threat to his victory.......
Then who would he kill if he isn't

"going out of his way"

? Vollkan?

TBH, I don't know, but I think an SK would be primarily interested in hitting somebody that couldn't be traced back to him. It's WIFOM all the way, regardless of what anyone thinks is most likely. At the same time, I don't think Vollkan would be a good sk kill, because he's a prime candidate to be watched, if we have a watcher. Obviously, I don't know if we do or not, but if I was SK (or mafia for that matter), that would be part of my thought process.

But is that a big scum-tell for truant, or how he normally plays?

I'm not big into meta. I'll leave that research to someone who is. I'm only reading his votes in this particular game, and I think they're suspicious.

[subgenius]

Also, I think I was the first person to vote Yura today, not him. Don't really know when D2 started, though, or I'd go back and check to make certain.

You were close behind, but Truant beat you by three posts. I don't think it makes much difference. I think Yura built enough negative momentum during D1 that I think casting the first vote on her D2 was borderline band wagonish.

[subgenius]

@vollkan

Am I right in assuming you'd be willing to lynch either Yura or Bgg? Is there anyone else on your lynchable list?

We really need to start moving towards a consensus lynch here.

Bgg and Truant are my top picks. I'm borderline on Yura and wouldn't terribly mind seeing her lynched if nothing happens with my primary two fos's. I'm not at all that persuaded by the cases on Andrew, Regfan, CKD, or S_C. Surely at least one of them is scum, but I'll start looking more closely at the folks in that pile after some people from my primary pile end up dead. Nobody has made cases on Maxous or Vollkan, so I don't think they're even in the discussion, which is okay with me.

In the meantime, I'm switching votes. Bgg has been a little better behaved lately, and as I've mentioned in my previous few posts, I'd like to see Truant swing. Bgg, you're still on notice.

unvote

VOTE: Truant

[subgenius]

And part of the reason I unvoted bgg was in the hopes that you wouldn't make a post like this.

I really don't see how you can put yourself more at risk than you already are right now.

[subgenius]

I'm seriously worried that the debate over my contradictions point (which was just one part of the reasons for a mere 5 points) has sullied the entire case against Yura.

If this is the case, I sincerely regret making that post. I still think Yura is a fine lynch candidate. I think more than anything, she has lurked her way off of people's minds. She hasn't posted in over 3 days.

[subgenius]

Beaten by Max, but I'll post it anyway.

I have clearly stated all of the reasons that somebody could've wanted to kill tclawren.

1. He is the SK.
2. I am the SK, trying to implicate him.
3. The SK made the choice randomly.
4. Somebody else is trying implicate Andrew as the SK.
5. The shot was vig, the stab was mafia.

There is absolutely no other reasons, except for ones that barely make sense, and/or don't really change the conclusion, that tclawren could've been killed.

I srongly believe that none of 2-5 could be true. After we eliminate

all other possible reasons,

the

only one left

has to be true. It's called the process of elimination.

I don't see in reason to disbelieve 2-5, especially not any strong enough to convince me to vote Andrew. You missed quite a few other possible reasons for tclawren being NK'd as well.

1. Considered strongest overall town player who was unlikely to be watched, protected, otherwise targeted by a town power role.
2. Tclawren was killed by a vig with a really bad read.
3. Tclawren was killed because he had an accurate read on the SK (See Truant's case).

I think the very fact that two people have used Tclawren's death as evidence to implicate two different suspects should be enough to make any reasonable person doubt both cases.

[subgenius]

Alright, so I just got out of the shower and did some thinking. I'm starting to get some semi solid town reads here, enough to group up everyone who I think is scum.

Town:
S_C-If this soft claim of his is fake, hats off to him, because I'm quite convinced.
Bgg-See above
Regfan-I'm seeing town motivations in his desires for S_C to fully claim.
Vollkan-Was pretty null on him until he expressed disappointment about the Yura case losing steam. I think mafia Vollkan would be happy to let his scoring system do the talking and lynch one of his top few candidates when the time comes. I think he truly believes Yura is scum and wants to see her lynched.
Maxous-Weak town read, but he's been helpful and I find myself generally agreeing with him.

Mafia:
Andrew-Process of Elimination
CKD-Process of Elimination
Truant-Case has been made + Process of elimination
SK:
Yura-It turns out,I think Truant might have been right about Yura at the beginning of the day. This also meshes nicely with her,"Am I really that much of a threat?" comment. Doesn't mean Truant isn't scum, though.


I would be fine with lynching any of these four.

[subgenius]

I believe CKD's vote puts Andrew at L-2.

[subgenius]

suddenly not okay with the shifting of votes.

I'd like to know exactly what you weren't ok with.

[subgenius]

addendum to previous question...

I'd like to know exactly what you weren't okay with AND why that caused you to unvote.

[subgenius]

addendum to previous question...

I'd like to know exactly what you weren't okay with AND why that caused you to unvote.

it really was a loss to you?...SC says her top two people were Yuro and Andrew..., but she unvoted andrew to vote Yuro...hmmm, you dont get why I have issue with that? I unvoted because I didnt like her vote of Yuro over andrew...there was no reason for it.

I understand why you didn't like SC's vote change, but I still don't understand why it prompted you to unvote.

[subgenius]

@subgenius, my bad if im wrong, but didnt u call me more town than surprise before?, so im scum by poe now?

I don't think I made that comparison, but if I did, it was before S_C's soft claim. If it makes you feel better, I'd rather lynch Yura or Truant.

[subgenius]

I agree that there's no reason to rush to lynch the Yura slot without waiting for a replacement to come in. I am a bit peeved that it looks like my top two fos's are being replaced.

[subgenius]

I feel pretty good about a Yura lynch, but not good enough to hammer before Yura or her replacement have a chance to respond and/or claim.

[subgenius]

In the off chance that Yura is town, it would be useful to hear the replacement's views on the game before we string him up. Confirmed townie analysis might be somewhat useful.

[subgenius]

Definitely seems as though we're in a holding pattern here. I'm quite interested to hear what CryMeARiver has to say about things.

[subgenius]

At this point, my first pick to lynch would be Haylen. It goes without saying that she is a far better player than Yura, but so far her input is based on incomplete read, and I'll be curious to see how her read changes by the time she's fully caught up. Same goes for CMAR. I'd be more interested to read about his thoughts after he's read a larger portion of the game than this back and forth with S_C.

[subgenius]

You are right. I typed something I didn't think. Now go back and read my bgg case and see how it's not "ridiculous".

Believe it or not, you're not the first to build a case against bgg or find him scummy in this game. He's been posting the same weird logic all game, and I was ready to lynch him for it. There's a reason we're looking the other way for the time being, and we might take your case more seriously if you address that reason. (Hint: It has to do with S_C's consistent defense of bgg and following soft claim).

[subgenius]

I'm a bit embarrassed that I just got prodded. Sorry guys. I've been reading, and keeping up, but I'm feeling a bit stalled. As before, my top two suspects are Haylen and CMAR. I am very concerned that CMAR and Haylen appear to have bgg as their top suspect, yet neither of them have addressed S_C's claim. I think I'm going to need to do some re-reading to regain momentum on my reads, because I feel like I've lost my focus.

[subgenius]

That is the absolute worst claim I've ever seen. Instead of outright claiming miller, you are testing the waters to see if you'll be scummy for it?

If you believe this is the claim that people keep mentioning, you are mistaken.

[subgenius]

That is the absolute worst claim I've ever seen. Instead of outright claiming miller, you are testing the waters to see if you'll be scummy for it?

If you believe this is the claim that people keep mentioning, you are mistaken.

I posted that as I read. If you kept reading what I said, I clearly realized it wasn't a claim later in the post.

Alright, well I look forward to hearing your opinion on the reason why nobody else is voting for bgg when you reach it in your catch up.

I find it strange that you feel compelled to proclaim how townie your slot is during your catchup. Also, why are you addressing dead players (tclawren)?

[subgenius]

I don't even remember who my slot is... -_- And when I'm doing a reread, I do it as if it was happening, so I address all players.

Well, atm you're voting for someone who several people consider to be at least provisionally clear without showing any interest in why other people think he's cleared. At your current reread pace, you might be caught up in a month. To a certain extent, I feel like you're dragging your feet in an effort to avoid posting any content that's meaningful to the current game. Your stream of conscience posting style seems to lend itself better to creating an appearance of activity than actually presenting useful cases.

And still, it blows my mind that you haven't inquired more deeply about S_C's claim, which has been mentioned several times. The fact that you display no interest in this leads me to think you really don't give a damn about who you're voting for since you're clearly not interested enough in seeing new evidence to either ask where this claim happened or to read more than 2 pages of the thread in the week or so since you've joined the game. This has scum written all over it. A town player would have a keen interest in assessing a claim that may or may not clear some players.

[subgenius]

@ CMAR

Well, you've done 2 pages in a week. At your current rate, you'll be caught up in about 15 weeks. In the mean time, your vote is on a player that is possibly cleared, and your second fos is the person who cleared him. You have shown very little initiative in finding new reads or explaining why anybody should change their minds on bgg's alignment, since you haven't addressed the reason why people think he's town. At this point, your vote is in a useless spot, and you're doing nothing to make it less useless. Since you've replaced in, you have done little aside from fos'ing two players that have almost zero chance of being lynched today, posted a response to the first two pages without saying how it informs your view of the game as it currently stands, and provided excuses for why you haven't been able to form proper reads in a timely manner.

Also, you seem to think that your refusal to please other players is a town tell, but I think it's more symptomatic of either a lack of effort or a scum player going out of his way to appear independent and stubborn in the belief that it makes him look like a townie. Unfortunately for you, it doesn't. Speaking for myself, I can only view stubbornness as a town tell if the player in question has convinced me that he is acting out of a sincere belief that his obstinate behavior is in the town's best interest. You have not done this, leading me to think that your stubbornness, combined with your argument that this stubbornness should be perceived as a town tell, is an act rather than an example of a confidently independent town player.

[subgenius]

1)I'm not seeing a lot of progress. All I can say is that I hope it doesn't take 15 weeks.
2)Unfortunately, your vote still counts whether or not you've read enough to make it an informed vote. Clearly you realize that you're missing important information, so I have to wonder why you're still willing to cast a vote without educating yourself about all of the players. The best explanation I can think of is that you don't care who gets lynched (as long as it's town), which would be the mafia stance.
3)I don't find the lurking necessarily scummy by itself, but I would describe the posts I've seen from you so far as somewhat empty and without much bearing on the game. If you say you don't have much time, I have to believe that for now, but you have had time to make SOME posts, and those posts have not instilled me with much confidence in your alignment. At best you're a town player who is not spending his limited game time wisely. At worst, you're a scum player who is consciously dragging his feet.
4)You're right, I took your ISO out of context, apologies.
5)Look, nobody decides how you execute your re-read besides you. So far, you've addressed the first two pages, and kept up with a discussion that you started from building a case from a single post from the last page when you subbed in. IMO, neither of these have been especially productive. You've had time to do at least a few things, but the things you have chosen have not been productive, and you have to expect to be judged on that. It's awfully convenient for you to argue that you should be allowed to live through the day because you haven't had time to catch up. Also, I hope realize by now that people are finding you suspicious because you're

voting

despite admitting that you don't have the necessary information to make a good vote.

[subgenius]

Alright, I think CMAR's change of opinion is a bit excessive and emotional. Being called definitively right about something strokes my ego a bit, but there's an element of AtE and excessive flattery in his unvote of bgg that strikes me as off.

In other news, we're getting seriously close to the deadline, and I don't see CMAR getting lynched today. I'm going to vote Haylen, because I really, really don't want to no lynch today, and I feel pretty good about her being scum. She hasn't done anything since replacing in that has caught my attention scum-wise, but Yura was just too scummy to rehabilitate. If Haylen turns out to be town, I'll feel pretty badly, because I'm sure she'd be a great player to have around. Unfortunately she replaced in to a really poorly performing slot. I believe this puts her at L-2. I'd like to see her claim asap since the deadline is coming up so quickly, but I don't have a ton of experience playing against a deadline, so I'll leave it to her discretion, since she's a far more experienced player than I am.

unvote

vote: Haylen

[subgenius]

For now... a Haylen/Yura lynch seems too scum-motivated.

You've got Vollkan, S_C, Maxous, and me voting for Haylen. Which of us is scum?

[subgenius]

What softclaim?

I'm sick of waiting for the replacements to get to the claim in their re-reads, so I'm just going to link it.

S_C ISO #599

I'm going to simply say that [bgg1996] is town. If him and I both survive till D3, I will fullclaim. If I don't make it, then you have my claim. We're certain either way. A fullclaim now would be pointless danger.

There it is. It was the culmination of S_C being pestered about his inexplicable defense of bgg's consistent stream of misapplied logic and diversionary nonsense. Personally, I find the claim to be pretty credible. S_C had been expressing doubt on cases against bgg for the entire day and was voicing increasing certainty and decisiveness in his read as people continued to push on bgg. Eventually, he soft claimed when it became apparent that nobody was buying his defenses and bgg began to look like a pretty likely lynching candidate. It's certainly possible this was a scum ploy, but the whole thing looks very organic and makes a lot of sense to me as the actions of a town PR. You'd really need to read all of D2 to get a sense of this, but the claim seems pretty legit to me.

[subgenius]

Ugh, I really should have previewed that.

Mod: Could you fix my retarded link for me, please?

yes..

[subgenius]

For a second or two, I had hoped you were PMed about an open SK slot.

Did you also hope that she would respond, "Because I was PMed about an open SK slot." That would have been nice.

[subgenius]

I'm assuming SK for two reasons:
1)Assuming tclawren was the 3rd party victim based on flavor, I don't think he makes a very good vig target at all. I'd expect vig to kill someone who was either scummy or useless. Tclawren was neither.
2)I'd rather be playing with the worst case scenario in mind.

[subgenius]

unvote

vote: CMAR

If it goes down to the wire and Andrew needs a hammer, I'd be willing to do it, but I'd prefer CMAR.

[subgenius]

Andrew, that's got to be one of the scummiest votes I've ever seen.

"I think Player A is lying about her claim, but I'm going to vote Player B, because he's the next biggest band wagon after my own."

[subgenius]

FTR, I will say that I find Haylen's claim a bit suspect as well. It's completely unverifiable and encourages town to let her live at least through mylo. Pretty convenient. That being said, I don't think she's getting lynched today, and the claim is enough for me to let her go one more day. I have no specific reason to think she's lying, but that's a pretty convenient claim for a scum player to make.

[subgenius]

Subgenius, there are many town roles that are unverifiable. Would you find everybody suspicious who had one of them?

I'll say that I would find them less persuasive. The fact that you specifically outlined your usefulness in a mylo scenario is more suspicious to me than claiming an unverifiable role. It's a convenient claim for someone who is interested in surviving late into the game, which fits scum motivations. Also, lets not forget that I've been suspicious of your slot all day. If somebody else made the same claim, I'd probably be more willing to take it at face value.

[subgenius]

SC, I know you want to vote Andrew but I would ask that you take a look at who all are currently voting for him.

QFT, the people on the CMAR wagon (except for Andrew) give me a much townier vibe than those on the Andrew Wagon.

[subgenius]

I'll go ahead and summarize my case on CMAR.

From Truant:
1)The fact that he ignored the presumed mafia kill in favor of analyzing the SK kill was a scum slip, IMO. He claimed to place a lot of faith in NK analysis, but only applied it to the only victim that mafia would be interested in analyzing. Truant ISO 6
2)After voting for Yura by assuming he knew the motivations for one NK, he unvotes her when he realizes that applying the same logic to the 2nd NK would also point back to Yura. Rather than strengthening his convictions, this caused him to unvote.Truant ISO 8
3)The rest of his posts were basically active lurking until he replaced out.
From CMAR:
1)Vote for bgg based on one post without seeming interested when people suggested that there was reason to believe he might be clear.
2)Dramatic change of mind accompanied with AtE when he couldn't keep the vote up anymore.
3)He's been in the game for over a week, and I know more about his reading list and college application process than I do about his fos's.

[subgenius]

Sorry I wasn't here for the final hours. I went out to do trivia expecting to return home before midnight, but ended up staying out later. Going to catch up now and see if I have anything to add before the thread is closed.

[subgenius]

Hm, skimmed the last few pages, and I don't think I have any points that are begging to be made. Andrew's claim about his role contradicting haylen's are interesting. We'll just have to wait and see. I'll have to reread again later, particularly CMAR. His posts deserve more than a skim, but I'm in no state of mind to do it right now.

[subgenius]

Gee, it really would have been nice if Haylen had redirected that kill. I'm not sure NL is the best option, since the scum will probably just take the opportunity to kill bgg. I suppose he's not technically confirmed since he could still be a godfather, but in our current situation, I think it makes sense to assume he is actually town.

I'm not at all convinced by Haylen's claim. I don't think mafia would have risked shooting the obvious NK choice if they thought there was a chance of the kill being redirected. They knew that it was a false claim, so they had no problem shooting the obvious target.

[subgenius]

Scum took the shot because I announced yesterday that under no circumstances was I going to use my ability until I was sure I was right.

Claim: One Shot Redirector. Yura did not use her ability. If I'm allowed to live, I plan on using it in mylo to reflect the scums kill back at themselves. If we reach lylo and I haven't used it by then, I THINK I the night will play out and I can redirect the scums kill back at themselves if we mislynch.

The first quote is a lie. You did not announce that you wouldn't use your ability under any circumstances. You suggested that you were planning on saving it for a mylo situation, and you also suggested that you weren't even sure how a lylo would play out in the final sentence of your claim. Nowhere did you mention that you required certainty in your reads before you would feel comfortable using your ability.

Your willingness to make things up in order to defend yourself does not improve my opinion of you.

[subgenius]

So subgenius...did you misunderstand how the ability works or something?

Yes, I did misunderstand how the ability worked.

[subgenius]

@Subgenius: Are you preferring a Haylen lynch over a River one at the moment?

I'm still trying to decide on that.

The behavior of Yura, the convenience of having a role that provides almost no utility until the end of the game, making things up to explain her night actions... It all rings scum to me. On the other hand, I'm willing to admit that there's a chance that I'm wrong, and there are most likely two more scum to find. I definitely want to hear more from CMAR. I think if the deadline was tonight, I'd put my vote on Haylen, but this is quite subject to change.

I would also like to draw attention to the votes on Andrew. Based on his alignment, I think it's safe to assume there was some mafia present on his wagon. That wagon consisted of:

(curiouskarmadog, bgg1996, Haylen, Regfan, CryMeARiver, Surprise_Carcinogen)

S_C:Is dead
bgg: I'm assuming he's town, maybe he's not, but in the absence of stronger evidence, I'm not going to ignore S_C's investigation.
CKD: Is reading much more town to me now than he was for the first part of the game.
Regfan: I was reading town on him earlier, but I'm not so sure now.
Haylen: I think she's scum.
CMAR: Probably scum.

I would not be at all surprised if Regfan is scum with CMAR based on his defense of him yesterday, but perhaps that is too obvious.

I would also be surprised if all three scum were on Andrew's wagon, which means that either Maxous or Vollkan is probably scum.

I want to emphasize that this doesn't represent a culmination of my reads through the entire game. It's more a set of assumptions based on how the day ended yesterday.

@regfan: I just finished a game with SK + 3 maf. The town lost and a few complained that it was imbalanced, but nonetheless, that was the setup.

[subgenius]

@ Regfan
Here's the link:

Mini 1126

Also - What leads you to believe that mafia would likely be on a SK lynch, you don't believe it possible or likely that they considered him just to be a VT (Not SK) and dealt with his lynch and wagon as such?

I think the only significant fact to consider is that Andrew was not mafia, so it's extremely likely that the mafia contributed to his lynch. I'd have more or less the same opinion on the wagon if Andrew turned out to be a VT, although I might be speculating on who the SK was if that was the case.

why focus on this wagon, you think the off wagon had less scum on it?

I think it's only natural to focus on the wagon of a lynched non-mafia player when the off wagon was against a player whom I strongly suspect. If CKD is maf, as I suspect he is, then I would expect more players on Andrew's wagon. I freely admit that there are a lot of assumptions here, but I'm trying to piece together of a theory of the game that makes sense to me.

why not focus on the previous day's wagon too?

IMO, Magnetic was so scummy and so toxic that I have trouble finding anyone suspicious for voting him. It simply had to be done. I do think that it's safe to assume there's scum on that wagon as well. FWIW, there are two slots that were on both lynch wagons, CMAR and Haylen.

[subgenius]

The idea of speculating over Andrews lynch only holds any ground if the opposing wagon was mafia and this wagon was pushed in an attempt to prevent one of their own getting lynched. If both running lynches were town/sk it's entirely possible that there are no mafia on the Andrew lynch. Therefore I see no point in speculating over the list of players on the Andrew lynch unless you've got a definitive read on the alternate wagons.

You're speaking sense here, and I certainly wouldn't use that bandwagon analysis as the entirety of a case, but since I have a strong suspicion that CMAR is mafia, I find it helpful. You're correct in expressing caution, though. Maybe I am putting the wagon ahead of the horse.

[subgenius]

@ Vollkan

Play-wise, I'm not really seeing the difference between the two approaches. Either way, he's not getting lynched today.

Do you still want to NL?

also i am confused here...what are you trying to say? you think i am mafia?

I meant CMAR. Sorry about that. I got my 'C' acronyms mixed up. You're fine in my book atm.

[subgenius]

Bgg, I'm having trouble deciding if you're scum hunting or trying to settle a personal score. Do you simply want Regfan to admit you're right, or are you thinking he's scum?

[subgenius]

This is pointless as hell.

[subgenius]

With that said - Do you currently have any town-reads, and if so can you explain reasoning to back them up?

I'm sorry to say that my town reads are dissolving quickly. CKD has looked better lately, but I wouldn't call it a town read. My read on Max and Vollkan is slipping.

@Subgenius: Is there something that you would rather talk about?

Yes, anything that has to do with finding scum. Who are your top suspects? Who are we going to lynch today? Why?

I noticed that way back before S_C's claim, you were voting for me, but seemed to still regard my posts and opinions as much as anybody else's. Was this because you didn't really believe I was mafia(which is bad), or because you always hold everybody's opinion equally(which is good)?

I'd have to be a fool to answer the bad answer, but the good answer happens to be the truth anyway. I don't think I've ever had a strong enough scum read to make me comfortable completely disregarding what another player is saying. I'm more likely to ignore someone if they aren't making any sense than if I think they're scummy. I think I mentioned somewhere in the middle of day 2 that I was still open to you redeeming yourself, because I wasn't ready to close the book on you yet.

[subgenius]

My read on Max and Vollkan is slipping.

Any reasons in particular for this?

I didn't care for how you both started the day out with theory talk rather than scum hunting.

This happened after the above quoted post, but:

Yes, if we mislynch today (which is inherently a lynch that is based on less information than a post-NL lynch and, thus, is more likely to be a mislynch) , we need to rely on town-Haylen to save us (and those odds aren't good).

Whereas, if we NL, Haylen might be able to redirect tonight anyway - but even if she doesn't (either by failing or not acting), we still get to lynch tomorrow with more information.

Now, it's also completely untrue that Haylen's ability won't save us. Imagine a 4:3 LYLO. We mislynch, it goes to 3:3. Yes, as you said earlier, scum can just No Kill, but they don't win with a tie. The reason that games get endgamed when there is a tie is that there is no way for town to win. However, in 3:3, we still can win - by Haylen redirecting at night. (and, for obvious maths odds reasons, it's better that we rely on Haylen in a post-LYLO mislynch rather than a post-MYLO mislynch).

I do not like Vollkan justifying a no lynch by arguing that Haylen's ability would be more likely to succeed after a post LYLO mislynch. Haylen still has the highest scum score according to Vollkan, and she is in no way cleared. I cannot imagine why town Vollkan would argue for a NL on the assumption that Haylen's claim is valid. Town Vollkan can't know the truth of Haylen's claim. Scum Vollkan knows she is town and therefor assumes she is telling the truth or knows she is faking but has a motive for playing along with the claim.

100% Filler

Enough said.

[subgenius]

Yeah, I see what you're saying about adopting the same assumptions for the sake of argument, and I suppose I'll grant you the point about NL talk. I think my suspicion of that discussion might just be a product of me starting to get a bit frustrated with the lack of solid leads. I'm getting impatient.

I'm still not sure about NL'ing, and I'm looking forward to CMAR's next post, because his last one was not confidence inspiring.

[subgenius]

3) Despite her scumminess, Haylen should not be the lynch today unless we all come to an agreement. In reality, if she is town and we mislynch, she is possibly our only hope of making it through the night. If possible, we should find scum elsewhere.

If Haylen is deemed the most likely to be mafia then we should lynch her regardless of her claim and possible night scenarios.

I think both of these quotes say pretty much the same thing, but CMAR phrased it in a really wishy-washy way. Basically, "Haylen is scummy, but we shouldn't lynch her today unless everyone else wants to do it, in which case I'm game," versus, "If we find Haylen the most likely to be mafia, we should lynch her." Functionally, I think both of these statements mean almost the same thing, but CMAR's version is a bit scummy to me because rather than making his support of Haylen's lynch contingent upon finding Haylen scummy, he only says he requires a consensus.

One thing I was wondering. So far, the following town PR's have been revealed: sledgehammer, cop, and doctor. That seems like a pretty powerful arsenal of power roles, and I find myself wondering if another PR as potentially powerful as redirector would be included in this setup. This is pure speculation, and I haven't played enough games to have a strong sense of how likely this would be. Even if I had, it would be pure speculation, but this seems like a lot of PR's to me.

[subgenius]

You're strawmanning and misrepping. I said that I was going to use my ability during lylo or mylo. It should have been inferred that I would not be willing to use it at any other time. Especially considering my refusal to use it just to confirm my role.

Implying is not the same as announcing. You claimed and explained your plans for your power. Plans can and do change, and I see nothing in your claim post that would make me infer that your plans were set in stone.

With a one shot ability, certainty is a necessity. Put yourself in my position, what would you do if you potentially held the outcome of a game in your hands? In fact, how would you play a one shot role?

What I would do with a one-shot power isn't really relevant. You justified your inaction last night by claiming you said something that you never said. I agree that you should be as certain as possible before you use your power, but you didn't say that yesterday as you claim you did.

I'm thinking Subgenius and Vollkan scumteam. I don't know what to think about whether there's a third mafia because 1 SK and 3 Mafia in a 13 player setup seems a bit heavy to me. And oh hey, if it is mylo/lylo, they're going for the easy target.

What are you talking about? Vollkan is voting NL, and I haven't voted anyone. You're certainly near the top of my suspect list, but I'm not sure enough about your lynch at this point to vote for you. In addition, how are you the easy target? Your claim has been enough to make everybody think long and hard about your lynch.

Might have been a scumslip. I don't see any reason for anyone who didn't know how many scum there are to know that no lynch is a good idea. Balance wise, I would say we had 2 mafia PR's and an SK. Because 3 mafia and an SK is really heavy.

Did you miss my post where I provided a link to a mini with SK+3 Maf? 3 mafia is a distinct possibility. IMO it's far more scummy to suggest that we aren't actually at MYLO than to assume a worst case scenario.
[quote="Haylen"

The behavior of Yura, the convenience of having a role that provides almost no utility until the end of the game, making things up to explain her night actions... It all rings scum to me.

Yura was a newb. Blame random.org. Who says I'm making things up? I was making it clear that I'm going to use my ability in the most pro-town way I can think of and that anyone who suggests I use my ability to confirm myself is foolish.[/quote]
Yura was a scummy newb. You know what I'm talking about when I said you're making things up. You addressed it in this same post. I truly don't understand why you aren't interested in confirming yourself, since that would involve redirecting a night kill onto maf. I appreciate the difficulty in this, but confirming yourself and helping town both involve the exact same action in this case. Anyhow, I misunderstood how your ability worked when I questioned why you didn't save S_C. I understand the decision at this point.

Bgg could be a godfather btw. If we go by 2 mafia, it would make sense that he'd be NK and Inv immune. I'm reading Andrews flip as him being Inv. immune, by the way. I have no reason to believe that Bgg is town anymore.

I can understand saying he's not completely clear, because he's not, but we have no reason to even think there is a gf. Yes it's a possibility, but the chances are far far better that it's a valid investigation.

My read on Max and

Vollkan

is slipping.

Oh hey, distancing alert!

If one of them flips scum, this might make sense.

Scum Vollkan knows she is town and therefor assumes she is telling the truth or knows she is faking but has a motive for playing along with the claim.

TOWNIES DO NOT LIE ABOUT THEIR ROLE. PERIOD.

I should have phrased that better. What I was trying to say is that Vollkan's assumption that you're telling the truth leads me to believe that either:
a)He is scum and you are town telling the truth
or
b)You are both scum, so he knows you are lying but has a motive to support the claim.

Bear in mind, Vollkan's explanation for that post made sense, and I don't still hold to this interpretation.

Oooh! Scum could have a framer!

Who gives a crap? The Cop is dead and he got an innocent. Completely irrelevant.

Bandwagon analysis should come tomorrow as well as read of page 41.

Still waiting on this...

[subgenius]

The advantage that you guys would get from NLing and me dying is related to the chance that I am scum.

It's also related to how much of a help you're being in helping us find scum, which is approximately nil right now. I don't want to lynch you or see you NK'd, but I'm not seeing much value in these probability arguments.

PS Another day passes with no word from CMAR.

[subgenius]

vote: CMAR

[subgenius]

I know that people strongly dislike night-kill speculation but I think at least something can be read from this games ones. I looked back at Pappumrats post now that we know mafia were the ones to shoot him, his suspicons were completly off-track considering the fact he FoS'ed, Tcl and S_C and none of his posts resembled any form of a power-role tell, I'm interested in hearing peoples thoughts on why he was shot?

Why are you ignoring the fact that he voted Yura at the end of the day?

Anyhow, I can't come up with any plausible reason that would explain Pappum's death.

[subgenius]

i think yura-chi is trolling this game tbh. however, notice what i have bolded in sc's last post:

He's been 'not posting' for about 9 or 10 hours. That's not exactly a drought. It's not suspicious to go less then 12 hours without posting. Otherwise, I have a list of about 6 or 7 people who are also suspicious. I mean, for example,

that yura-chi guy

went, like, 13 or 14 hours before making his first post!

this seems a bit like he may be distancing himself from the guy who just happened to share the same qt as him. i dont see why he couldnt just say 'yura-chi'.

The fact that he suggests that S_C was distancing from Yura would lead me to believe that he did suspect Yura at least a little bit.

[subgenius]

When somebody says they plan on doing something. Then you should take it that they mean to do that and not try and twist it to mean something scummy later.

And if you mean to state something unequivocally, you should probably make sure to do it rather than saying you did so afterwards.

It's completely relevant. Because it's about how to best play something. Which is a defense of my lack of action.

No, it's not. I admitted I misunderstood your role when I first brought up your night choices. You don't have to defend your night actions from me at this point. I've said as much. I guess you choose to ignore it, though.

With regards to Vollkun, I meant the fact that he's using the same lame excuse you are to make people think I'm scum ie that I didn't outright say something that was obviously implied. I'm an easy target because I replaced into the scummiest role in the game and I'm on people's scumlists - how does that not make me an easy target?

You're getting paranoid. You're also admitting Yura was scummy after writing a detailed explanation of how you thought she was a clear newb townie yesterday. I guess she was an easy town read when it suited you, but now that you can use her scumminess to manufacture an fos, you're willing to contradict yourself. Anyway, there's almost no chance of you being lynched today. Trying to lynch our last claimed PR is not something I would call easy. Others have already said they would strongly prefer to avoid lynching you based on your claim.

You know what I'm talking about when I said you're making things up.

No I don't. Provide links.

"Making things up" refers to the "announcing" vs "planning" fiasco.

If whoever gets lynched today is a Framer, would it still be irrelevant?

Yes, it would only be relevant if the cop received a guilty investigation, which he didn't.

The vote was more out of frustration other than anything else, on top of that the were several players that stated suspicion towards Yura in a higher extent at that point, if the kill was purely based upon the concept of removing those who suspected Yura they would have died over Pappumsrat.

Please read my response to Maxous. You don't accuse Player A of distancing from Player B if you don't suspect player B of being mafia. Anyhow, You've asked what others think of Pappums death, but what is your opinion?

[subgenius]

Are you implying that on night 1 Pappums was possibly night killed because of the threat his suspicions posed to Yura?

Absolutely not. I already said I have no explanation for why Pappums was killed. I only brought it up because I thought it was strange that Regfan would mention the two confirmed town that Pappums fos'd but ignore the still living player for whom he actually voted.

Look, it is quite apparent at this stage she is saying 'Framer' in reference to what I would call a 'lawyer'. The role in which the target of your ability appears innocent when he should appear guilty.

You're right, and that would be relevant if we lynched someone and he showed up with that kind of role. That being said, I'm not going to spend a lot of time thinking about it unless that happens. Bgg isn't being lynched today. If we lynch maf today. He will almost certainly not be lynched tomorrow either. He might, possibly, conceivably be lynched in 3 person lylo, but talking about it before then is merely idle banter, especially if it isn't accompanied by actual reasons to think that bgg is scum.

[subgenius]

For those who are interested. Since Day 3 has started, CMAR has made 30 posts on the forum, of which, two were in this thread. Of those two, there was no original content. CMAR is hard core lurking, and it isn't because he hasn't had time to check the forums or write a post. He is actively avoiding this game.

[subgenius]

I'll admit it. I'm pretty mad at this point. Why the hell has CMAR done nothing in this game except bread crumb a role and claim with one vote on him? WTF. This is absurd. I don't know what to do at the moment, and I'm just about beyond caring.

On the one hand, CMAR's claim meshes with Haylen's thematically, on the other hand, he could be a mafia Jail Keeper or just plain lying. I don't know, I'm tempted to just take both their claims at face value since it narrows down the field so greatly. After crossing Bgg, CMAR, and Haylen off the list, that leaves Regfan, CKD, Vollkan, and Max. TBH, I don't find any of the latter four all that scummy, although there is almost certainly at least one maf in there. Christ, I just don't know, but I think the town has failed epically in this game, myself included.

[subgenius]

Well, it's still possible he

is

the best mafia player here, but then, we still shouldn't lynch him, as he would be the best mafia player here, and would still play as the best town player.

Are you saying that since a large part of a mafia player's strategy is to look like a town player, Vollkan would still be helpful even if he's mafia because he'll do such a good job looking like town that he will actually help the town? If so, you're insane.

[subgenius]

I'm not sure how helpful a mass claim would be at this point. We already have four PR's claimed, and I'm not sure how many more we can expect or how useful it would be to hear more of them. I feel like it would only serve to further muddy the waters. I do agree with Vollkan about definitely not mass claiming if we decide to NL, but I don't think a mass claim would even be especially useful if we do decide to lynch today.

As far as a NL, I'm more open to it now that my two prime suspects are both claimed PR's, but it still makes me uncomfortable simply because I feel like it is a collective admission from the town that we have no leads.

For those questioning why I claimed now, I felt it pretty obvious. I've played rather badly in this game as I haven't given it a lot of time so I figured I might as well make up for it to my replacement by letting him know of my breadcrumbs to help cement the fact that I'm town rather than having him lynched outright for my bad play. I have made a deal with the mod that I will play until I find my own replacement.

Claiming at one vote does not help cement you as town in anyway whatsoever. Look at what happened to Magnetic. It looks desperate and overly defensive. Also, why is CMAR now in charge of both playing his slot and finding his own replacement when he couldn't find the time to only play his slot. Please, please, please get somebody who has the time and motivation to continue into this slot asap.

[subgenius]

Welp, I'm still at a bit of a loss here. It appears that we'll be receiving two new players, whom I would like to hear from before we finish the current day.

Only think I have to comment on is this:

I actually think it would clear things up considerably. Both of the current claims (CMAR and Haylen) are scummy, and they've both claimed roles which can plausibly be mafia roles. Nonetheless, their claims have made me more reluctant to lynch either of them. If we are lynching with the prospect of losing (because it is most likely MYLO), then it makes sense to lynch with the clearest picture of game balance possible.

If, for example, we MC and there are other PRs, that makes it far more likely that CMAR or Haylen is scum. The opposite isn't necessarily true, though, but it would still clarify the situation

Why would you suspect Haylen and CMAR more if more claims appeared rather than the players that made the new claim, particularly since you've announced that a new claim would draw suspicion to the previous claimers rather than the new claimers? New claims wouldn't shed much more light on anything. We'd still have no way of verifying the claims, and we don't have a kill to spare to test any of them out as the game progresses further. I'm just not seeing much benefit to seeing new claims when it's so easy for scum to lie about it.

In fact, as I write this, I'm becoming more convinced that I'd prefer to NL with no MC. If we MC today, we give scum more information to use when they pick their NK. If we wait until tomorrow, we give them an entire night to discuss their claim strategy. Neither of these is good for town.

[subgenius]

You mean you favour NL over lynching now? Or just no-MC+NL over MC+NL?

I do favor NL now, but it's not a strong preference. I feel pretty strongly about not MC'ing tomorrow if we NL today.

[subgenius]

Who says you're going to be killed? If either Haylen or CMAR are telling the truth, it's quite reasonable to guess that the maf will kill them rather than risk one of their night kills being tampered with.

[subgenius]

Because usually the mafia choose the logical kill choices. While it is possible that they would kill them, you have to realize that they would only do that if it is worse.

I'm not sure what you mean by "you have to realize that they would only do that if it is worse." Anyhow, I'm not going to delve too deeply into my opinions on who would be the best NK, but I wouldn't be very surprised to see you alive tomorrow if we NL.

[subgenius]

And I don't think you understand what I'm saying about choice. I mean that you can't say "maybe the mafia will kill one of the others, and it won't be as bad", because they would only do so if they judged the outcome to be worse for town.

And I don't think you understand that what is worst for town is up for debate. It's a debate that I'd prefer not to go into, but it's not at all clear cut.

We already had a protective role in Weak Doctor, so JK seems a bit much as well.

This is a point that hadn't occurred to me, and it makes a certain amount of sense. It's definitely setup speculation, but I find it at least somewhat compelling.

[subgenius]

NL means if any of Haylen or CMAR is legitimate and they do block a night kill at some point in the game, we will be at mylo again and not have an added mslynch.
Lynching today and if Haylen or CMAR is legitimate and do block a night kill we gain an added msylnch.

Are you confident enough in Haylen's and CMAR's alignment and ability to correctly pick their targets to potentially leave the game in their hands if we mislynch?

In addition, you haven't even voted for anyone, so unless you're going to push for someone's lynch, arguing against a NL amounts to little more than idle chitchat since the way things are going now, we'll probably end up NL'ing at the deadline anyway. Who do you want to lynch?

[subgenius]

I still think we should lynch today though.

I will be voting Cry Me A River before the end of the day. He is my pick.

Why the change of heart?

[subgenius]

I still think we should lynch today though.

I will be voting Cry Me A River before the end of the day. He is my pick.

Why the change of heart?

What change of heart?
The first statement is 'I would like to lynch.'
The second statement is 'I would like to lynch River'

Oops, freudian reading slip. I remembered that you were one of the first to broach the possibility of NL'ing today and read the first post as "I still don't think we should lynch today." My mistake.

[subgenius]

I'm more than a bit concerned by the swiftness with which CMAR/Hinduragi has garnered the majority of the town's tentative votes. I would be surprised if this many town players settled on a single player with so little discussion, and I don't believe that mafia would be very to bus in our current situation.

Current votes/intents to vote:
Me
Maxous
SB
bgg
Regfan

I'm pretty confident there is scum in this group. I'm currently leaning Regfan since he has displayed the least suspicion of CMAR in the past. I think he said he would be willing to vote for CMAR at the end of Day 2, but other than that he was pretty ambivalent about the case against him. I've had a null tell on him for most of the game, but I have a bad feeling about this pseudo-wagon, and he's the one that sticks out the most to me.

unvote

[subgenius]

So there is scum in that group where you have included yourself (lol) and a 96% confirmed bgg. So I guess you think the scumteam is me Max and regfan (or 2 of 3 depending on size of scum)?

I don't believe I said the scum team is You, Max, and Regfan. I think it's quite premature to speculate on scumteams before we've found even a single confirmed scum. I said I think there is scum involvement on the CMAR wagon and Regfan is the one that seems most likely to me. If I intended to argue that the entire scum team was on the wagon, I would have said so.

This is a HUGE change of heart from the following...

I'll admit it. I'm pretty mad at this point. Why the hell has CMAR done nothing in this game except bread crumb a role and claim with one vote on him? WTF. This is absurd. I don't know what to do at the moment, and I'm just about beyond caring.

On the one hand, CMAR's claim meshes with Haylen's thematically, on the other hand, he could be a mafia Jail Keeper or just plain lying. I don't know, I'm tempted to just take both their claims at face value since it narrows down the field so greatly. After crossing Bgg, CMAR, and Haylen off the list, that leaves Regfan, CKD, Vollkan, and Max. TBH, I don't find any of the latter four all that scummy, although there is almost certainly at least one maf in there. Christ, I just don't know, but I think the town has failed epically in this game, myself included.

Where you list 3 of the 4 members on your new scumteam as not scummy. That's a pretty big change of heart in a week where basically the only content has been me replacing in.

How on earth does this contradict my most recent post? I was mad at the CMAR claim because it threw a wrench in my suspicions of him. At the time, I wasn't sure how to interpret it, and that was frustrating. The scum team listed in this post is the one that would result from hypothetically taking CMAR and Haylen's claims at face value and seeing if it made sense. Even if I don't consider any of those four players scummy, I'm almost sure at least one of them is a scum player who is playing very well.

Changes of content since that post: Maxous saying he would likely vote for CMAR, regfan saying he would likely vote for CMAR, bgg saying he would vote for CMAR, and you voting for CMAR. Those are important developments.

Also the CMAR wagon has been anything but swift. This game is crawling. This is a really lame reason to unvote. The "wagon" was just you and me. That's hardly garnering the town's tentative votes. I'm just getting a vibe that your posts aren't genuine and that makes them scummy.

All of these votes or commitments to vote happened within just over a 24 hour period:
Maxous ISO 77Apr 21, 10:47 am
SB ISO 2Apr 21, 10:15 pm
Regfan ISO 115Apr 21, 11:41 pm
Bgg ISO 180Apr 22, 12:40 am

This is pretty fast considering there was nobody pushing a case and more players were discussing whether or not to lynch at all than who to lynch. This sudden focusing of attention on CMAR seems unnatural and untown to me.

After CMAR almost being lynched on Day 2 it would be very pratical for mafia to bus him in this situation.

I don't think so. If there are 3 scum left right now, the mafia are very close to winning the game. Bussing would result in an extra day and a solid lead for the town to work with, and the benefits would be minimal since there would be less time for the bussing players to capitalize on their town cred than if they had done so earlier in the game.

If there are only 2 mafia, the other maf would be taking a huge risk by bussing his teammate, thus ensuring that he can only win in a 3 man lylo.

[subgenius]

Votes speak louder than weak deadline NL avoiding promises.

I don't disagree with that, and if we had more time and days, I'd be willing to wait until more votes were cast to comment on them. Unfortunately, this might be our last day, and we are nearing the deadline, so I had to act earlier.

Also the whole x scum are in this group of people argument is flawed. At this point I can take any group of 2-4 people and probably find scum in it. So it doesn't really have value.

I happen to think breaking off a set of players that likely contains scum, eliminating as many as possible, and picking one or two out who are most likely to be scum could be pretty effective.

This is a complete misrepresntation of the situation at hand, and something I expected much better from you. Lets take a look at the actual facts:

April 4th I vote for CryMe due to him being my strongest suspect at the time.
April 6th I state agreement and disagreement with portions of the case against CryMe
April 6th I state I still believe River is mafia, just not with as much strength as I did in the past, state I have no issue voting him at all.
April 6th I state reads from strongest to weakest with CryMe being the highest of any alive player.
April 13th I state my full list of reads with CryMe as my strongest mafia read.
April 21st I reaffirm confidence in a CryMe potential lynch.

Fair enough, I should have read more carefully. I was basing my opinion of my recollection of you being the most vocally doubtful of the case on CMAR when I was trying to push the case on him during D2. Clearly I didn't read as far back or as carefully as I should have.

Lol what? You guys do realise that mods are allowed to put one or two non-normal roles in a game? I had a Town Godfather in the large normal that I ran, and I think some other weird role too.

GF is an explicitly normal role, though, and while the normal rules do allow for one

unusual

role, they do not allow for non-normal roles.

New/variant roles may be included in limited number (no more than 1 in a Mini, 2 in a Large), and should be based on the usual role mechanics: Killing, Protecting, Investigating, Blocking, Voting, Enabling and Communication.

Redirection is not in this list.

Further, I find Haylen's method of defense suspicious. If her role was valid, I would expect her to be legitimately surprised as well as irritated with the mod for assigning a role that could potentially put so much heat on her. Instead, her first reaction is to explain why the role makes sense based on her understanding of normal rules, which is pretty clearly incomplete, which would explain why she claimed redirector in the first place.

vote: Haylen

[subgenius]

She explained why her role can be in the game, why should she be outraged and surprised if she moderated a game that had a couple of these 'unusual' or whatever roles?

She cited the inclusion of GF, which is explicitly mentioned as a normal role to validate her claim of redirector, which is explicitly non-normal. Mentioning a mini-normal with a GF does nothing to make her claim more believable. If she can remember what the other roles are and show that they were outside the normal rules of the time, I would be willing to listen.

I think a townie's natural reaction to someone pointing out that their claim is contrary to the rules of the game would be to read the rules, recognize that they've been somewhat screwed over by the mod, and protest that regardless of the clearly stated rules, he or she did in fact receive that role. Instead, Haylen is trying to argue that her role is allowable without giving any compelling evidence. I see her putting more effort into showing that her claimed role is feasible than that she actually received that role. I think this is because she fake claimed and she has a bit of pride on the line if she's lynched on the basis of a foolish role choice.

[subgenius]

What's a town GF? A miller? If so, those are normal.

Loving how Bgg is ignoring the fact that a NORMAL game with SCUM MASONS has just finished.

Quote from the rules post of that game:

This game is being run as a Large Open set-up.

That was not a normal closed game.

[subgenius]

That role was no-reveal, Subgenius. People weren't told what a Town Godfather was when it flipped. It was a miller-Vig. No-reveal roles are prohibited too.

That role is still normal, since it is a combination of normal functions. False reveals are prohibited, but not explaining unusual roles is not. After reading the setup that you were talking about (Large Normal 109), it does not appear to break any normal rules. It contained two unusual roles (town GF and super saint), and neither of these roles had any prohibited functions.

[subgenius]

English please?

Tolkien parody is the highest form of English, rivaled in sophistication and beauty only by recitations of Monty Python sketches.

We think they're trying to get us to use our one shot, doesn't we? My precious...

To continue the parody theme:
Haylen Bond: Do you expect me to use my one shot?
Subfinger: No, Ms. Haylen, I expect you to die!

I don't think anyone believes your claim at this point, so it would make little sense to let you live with the expectation that you'd use your ability.

[subgenius]

I agree. Max is next in line in my book.

[subgenius]

I agree. Max is next in line in my book.

And why is that?

Very similar to what Regfan posted: Bgg is nearly confirmed, and SB is looking town based on his uncovering of Haylen's slip. As others have mentioned, it seems unlikely that both claimed PR's are faking, so Hindu is probably town. I'm still not sure about Regfan, Vollkan, or Max, but of those three players, Max's interaction with the Haylen wagon is quite conspicuous in that he seemed more interested in deflecting suspicion from her than learning more about the set-up rules that could prove her claim false. My only reservation is that it almost seems too obvious.

[subgenius]

And why can't he be telling the truth about his power and also be mafia? Why automatically town?
Mafia have night powers.

TBH, I was bluffing. Even if he is a town JK, I think maf would have done us a favor by offing him. I was hoping maf would be more likely to NK him if town appeared to be putting a lot of trust in him. I thought eliminating a potential WIFOM would be more useful than a one shot JK, I guess either mafia agreed or CMAR is also Mafia.

I'm not liking CMAR/Hindu, but Hindu has a whole day to make me think differently. I think the fact that Haylen's one shot claim was bogus actually casts more doubt on CMAR's claim. It seems quite possible that CMAR was following Haylen's lead after seeing the effectiveness of her one-shot claim. Also, as SB mentioned, if CMAR is a JK, that would mean the town was given two protective roles, which seems somewhat excessive.

Now, Max, why was it that you were so uninterested in noting how Haylen's claim clearly contradicted the rules of normal setups? You seemed to accept her explanations although they really didn't explain anything. Up to that point, you had been quite on the ball, but with Haylen, you seemed all too ready to accept her excuses.

CMAR and Max are my top two suspects atm, but I'm having trouble fitting them together as a scum team. If they were paired together, that would mean Max was trying to bus Hindu/CMAR yesterday, and as I said yesterday, I don't think that it was a good spot to bus.

[subgenius]

Doing a brief reread of the day 2 and day 3, I noticed a few things about CMAR.

1)He didn't start breadcrumbing his JK claim until after he had 3 votes on him towards the end of day 2. This was his 27th post of the thread. I think this further calls the authenticity of his claim into question. If he was the bread crumbing sort, I would expect him to start doing it earlier.
2)He seemed far too trusting of Haylen's claim.

3) Despite her scumminess, Haylen should not be the lynch today unless we all come to an agreement. In reality, if she is town and we mislynch, she is possibly our only hope of making it through the night. If possible, we should find scum elsewhere.

This quote does not make sense if his claim is truthful. He was still unclaimed at this point and would know that he had a chance to protect if he was telling the truth. Why would he defend Haylen while admitting that she is scummy if he actually held a shot at using a protection?

Do not NL today as we have (if Haylen isn't lying) 2 chances of avoiding kill today.

3)Combined with Truant's earlier defense of Yura:

Yura is (unfortunately) my strongest town read; pretty much for the exact opposite reasons as Vollkan had initially voted him for (the threat comment makes no sense coming from scum; especially somebody as seemingly ignorant as Yura where I can't believe he'd be bright enough to think about saying that as scum).

I'm regaining steam on my truant/cmar/hindu scum read.

[subgenius]

I'd like to think that CMAR wondering what role Magnetic had wasn't a scum ploy for townpoints, Hinduragi didn't search through the thread for his own claim before claiming, and scum killed Scott because they thought he may have jailkept/protected me.

Hindu had plenty of time to search the thread for his claim. He said he has played with Vollkan, Haylen, and SB, which leads me to believe he is more than experienced enough to realize why you were so insistent that he had to claim immediately and quickly scan the ISO's of Truant and CMAR to see if either had already claimed. Also, lets not forget that SB was extremely vocal about his suspicions of CMAR's claim, which provides an alternative motive for the NK. I think that if mafia thought CMAR was for real, they would have NK'd him rather than you or anyone else. The risk of him successfully protecting someone, thus confirming both himself and his target was too great. Admittedly, this is WIFOM, but that's my take on it.

[subgenius]

Interesting development. This claim strikes me as fairly credible. First, it meshes with my previous suspicions of CMAR/Hindu. Second, I had noticed that Maxous hadn't posted for two days, and his claim explains that. Third, the fact that he clears Regfan makes his claim extremely useful tomorrow. If Hindu flips scum, we could start tomorrow with 2 confirmed innocents, which kicks ass.

I'm willing to accept his explanation for doubting the case against Haylen, since he has made several references to playing mafia at other sites. In my limited experience, I've found that MS puts a lot of thought into their rules and how to enforce them, so I was quite willing to lynch Haylen for making a claim that contradicted the rules, but I can understand how I would be less eager if the majority of my mafia experience was at a site that wasn't quite as structured and moderated. I'll admit that it's strange to cite experiences from other sites to explain why a claim at this site is within the rules, but I can let it go.

P.S. I had the following post sitting on my clipboard from last night, and didn't get around to posting it.

I'm now basically left without a clear suspect. CMAR obviously has the highest score, but his claim obviously complicates things. I agree with SubG that there is a decent chance that CMAR was sheeping Haylen's claim.

This statement is unusually equivocal for you, Vollkan. You want to say he's scummy, but then you mention his claim affects your opinion, then you say that there's a good chance that he's lying about it anyway. You don't want to NL, but who are you thinking you want to lynch?

@Regfan
Condensing the VC's like that makes for some interesting reading. In particular, I think 2.20 and 2.21 are interesting, in which Max, Vollkan, and I are voting for CMAR. I'm not sure what to make of it, but it looks like an interesting focal point to investigate.

As I'm rereading, I'm becoming more and more convinced of CMAR's/Hindu's guilt. In particular, his breadcrumbing and claim seem extremely, extremely suspicious to me.

As I mentioned earlier, he started breadcrumbing in ISO 27, which was very near the end of day 2, shortly after Haylen's claim, and shortly after he garnered three votes. At the end of this very same post, he writes:

I'll be online til around 10 EST if I need claim.

To me, this indicates a certain eagerness to claim. He's almost asking someone to request his claim in the same post that he starts breadcrumbing. This seems odd to me.

Then, the fact that he claimed yesterday with one vote. If he was town, he wouldn't be worried about his replacement missing his breadcrumbs, his replacement would be able to refer to his pm and claim when it made sense. It seems more likely to me that he didn't want his breadcrumb defense going to waste, so he claimed when he decided he had to be replaced.

[subgenius]

Also, at this point, I think it might make sense to mass claim with Maxous releasing his final role last. Depending on what his final ability is, and assuming Hindu is scum, he might be able to nail the final scum during the night. I'd be willing to bet Hindu is a goon and his partner has an ability of some kind. That would explain why the mafia picked such a highly suspected slot to execute the kill. After tonight, if Maxous is NK'd we have bgg and regfan confirmed, and if he's not NK'd we probably have some useful info if his last ability is also investigative.

Actually, it might make sense to only have Vollkan and myself claim since bgg and regfan might be clears. Or maybe just have Vollkan and me claim first and bgg and regfan later if anything comes up that would make us think their claims might be useful.

Thoughts?

[subgenius]

3 votes for claiming is enough for me. I'll go ahead and start.

I'm a

vanilla townie

.

[subgenius]

I jailkept Scott last night.

Why did you pick Scott to protect instead of the confirmed innocent?

[subgenius]

On top of that, if you were roleblocked, you wouldn't have visited. This means if you were roleblocked Maxous would have no idea that you visited Scott, which he did.

You're leaving out the possibility that Max is fake claiming, in which case, he would be straight out lying about knowing who Hindu visited last night. It is possible that Hindu was roleblocked and Max fake claimed and happened to accuse Hindu of visiting the correct player (who wasn't the obvious protection target), but the odds seem pretty long on that.

Hindu, you really should have taken the angle that Max is faking and claimed to have visited bgg. You're almost certainly scum.

[subgenius]

If he is legitimate then Maxous/Bgg/I are town meaning he roleblocks Volkan tonight. If a kill goes through Volkan becomes clear and Subgenius would be the last mafia, if no kill goes through we lynch Volkan and Subgeninus the following day.

This sounds like a good plan. I want to wait for Max to confirm this course of action before I vote, though.

[subgenius]

vote: Hinduragi

[subgenius]

Vollkan already hammered. The reason we haven't gotten a flip yet is that the mod is V/LA until this evening.

I think we're in good shape. I trust Max's claim, and based on your response, I think you do too. I agree that bussing would be a poor decision for maf at this point, which leads me to think that Hindu is actually the final scum and maybe we've already won. Or maybe Max hoodwinked us and we've already lost. Or maybe Vollkan saw the writing on the wall and decided to go along with it in hopes of finding a way to survive tomorrow. In any case, the lynch has already been decided.

I will say that I think mafia would have three members if town has doc, cop, JoAT, and sledgehammer. Anything less seems imbalanced in the town's favor.

[subgenius]

I haven't played a lot of mafia, but I'm basing my assumption entirely on my experience in my previous game, which is the only other game I've played with an SK.

The set up was:
Scum: SK + 1 mafia goon, 1 mafia watcher, 1 mafia doctor
Town: Tracker + 2 Masons + 6 vanilla

Not only were there 3 mafia and an SK, but two of the mafia players were PR's and the town only had a handful of fairly weak PR's. Town never lynched the SK, so we had 2 deaths every night. Even so, town had a chance to take the win at the end of the game.

There was some complaining in the post-game about the game being imbalanced against the town, though.

[subgenius]

There are two possibilities as I see it:

1. Maxous is telling the truth, and he role blocked Vollkan, which makes me mafia since a kill went through.
2. Maxous is mafia. He fake claimed and bussed Hindu.

Are there any other possibilities that I'm missing?

Clearly, I'm a proponent of option number two. It appears that the rest is up to regfan and vollkan. I'll wait until they weigh in to see how they want to handle this.

[subgenius]

I'm slightly hesitant to hammer here, this is a position where mafia bussing causes them to lose due to Maxous being able to RB tonight yet Vollkan and Subgenius voted along so quickly. I need to do some thinking, something isn't adding up.

I haven't done anything near a full re-read yet, partially because I realize that anything I say at this point is bound to be taken with a large grain of salt, but Regfan nailed it here. I didn't think so at the time, because I believed Max's claim, but Regfan was right. Vollkan and I both voted very quickly despite the fact that if either of us was a mafia member lynching our partner, we would be almost guaranteeing ourselves a loss. We both voted quickly, because we both believed the claim and saw a town win coming out of it. This would not be the likely mafia response when faced with a town PR claim with a guilty against a partner. A bit of WIFOM, I admit, but Regfan spotted it before night even fell.

[subgenius]

There's one major problem with this: you only voted Hindu (1274) after Maxous had declared his intention to RB me (1273). Further, in 1251 Maxous indicated that he thought I was the third scum because of my "CMAR's claim complicates things post" (which you agreed with and said you had forgotten to post: 1253). In which case, I doubt SubG-scum would have fought against the claim, since it would have outed you as scum. Instead, it would make perfect sense for you to play along with it.

I waited to vote until a plan had been settled upon because I didn't want night to fall without an agreed plan in place. I believed Max's claim, so it made no difference to me whether he RB'd you or me. Either option would have won us the game if Max was telling the truth. The "CMAR's claim complicates things" was actually a factor in convincing me that Max's claim was credible. Max's claim proved you to be scum (at least from my perspective) and the quote also made you look scummy aside from that. The claim and the quote were mutually reinforcing in my eyes.

As far as saying that playing along with Max's claim makes perfect sense for scum, I think you'd have to admit that it also makes perfect sense for town, since you made the same decision, and it is now clear that you are town.

One thing from last night that strikes me as strange is that bgg was killed rather than Regfan. I don't think anyone will disagree when I say that Regfan has been the stronger player, so why is he still alive? I think it is because Regfan never claimed, and it's possible that his flip could have contradicted Max's claim. If Regfan had flipped paranoid gun owner, some sort of unused vig role, or some other gun-owning town role, it would have been obvious that Max was lying. He killed the safer target, the one who had no chance of contradicting his claim, bgg1996.

[subgenius]

That's all fair enough, but it does refute your previous claim that your action was not the likely mafia response. Your behaviour around the claim is basically a nulltell

The first point wasn't necessarily to argue that going along with the claim wasn't the likely mafia response but to provide an account of my thought process, which was town. You seemed to think that voting only after Max announced he would RB you was scummy, so I explained why I waited and why I mentioned your quote about CMAR. Obviously, there wouldn't be much difference in the actions of scum Sub and town Sub yesterday (although I do think there would have been room for scum Sub to resist Maxous's claim if he chose to), but I hope that explaining the thoughts behind the actions will be helpful in convincing you that I had town motivations.

The only reason I can see for Maxous-scum not killing Regfan is that, having declared Regfan gun-free, Maxous-scum may have felt that Regfan would be more disposed to see Maxous-scum as innocent. But that's obviously pretty weak

That is also a possibility, but I think the lack of a claim from Regfan also had something to do with it.

[subgenius]

Bgg did'nt claim :/

Yeah, but bgg's role was completely irrelevant to your claim. You had no stake in his flip.

[subgenius]

The reason I am leaning to it being SubG is that, if Maxous was gambiting scum, it would be against his interests to effectively declare Regfan innocent. By doing so, he has lowered the lynch field today from 3 (SubG, Maxous and Regfan) to just two (Maxous and SubG). This is obviously WIFOMy, and I have no intention of voting on it, though.

By the way if I was scum I could of simply claimed tracker and nothing else and kept the lynch possibilities to all 4 players.

I really don't see this as compelling. From your perspective, it doesn't matter how many people are cleared or not as long as the town believes your claim. Whether there are 1, 2, or 3 possible lynch targets today is irrelevant as long as you aren't one of them.

[subgenius]

I'm pretty sure if Regfan has a role that involves a gun he would of called me out on it in the last day period

Yeah, that's a fair point. I hadn't thought about that. It's possible that you're a mafia gun smith. Such a role could have been included to help mafia catch the cop. In that case, you would have known Regfan was unarmed. Or maybe you just picked an investigative role and took your chances. I don't know.

I would like Regfan and Vollkan to both think about how appealing a role claim and bus would be from scum's perspective yesterday.
1. Going into yesterday, scum knew that they only needed to get one more mislynch out of the town. It didn't matter if it happened D4 or D5. As long as town is lynched at any point, scum wins.
2. CMAR/Hindu had clearly drawn a lot of suspicion, and at the end of D3, Regfan and I both named Max as also suspicious. Scum had time to discuss this during the night before Max's claim and plan their strategy.
3. Think about how well a false claim followed by a bus for "confirmation" of the role with the intention of mislynching a townie the following day represents a winning strategy for a scum pair that is entering a MYLO day knowing that they are probably going to be the two leading suspects.

[subgenius]

But, equally, I doubt Maxous-scum would have been under any illusion that his bussing would clear him. After playing this game for so long now, he couldn't have expected to be considered confirmed town by virtue of gambiting.

That's why I put "confirmation" in quotation marks. Clearly, he isn't confirmed, but he doesn't have to be. He only has to be credible enough to lead the town to mislynch one person. Bussing his partner contributed to that credibility just as clearing Regfan contributed to that credibility.

Still haven't done a full re-read, but just noticed another point:

Bgg could be a godfather btw. If we go by 2 mafia, it would make sense that he'd be NK and Inv immune. I'm reading Andrews flip as him being Inv. immune, by the way. I have no reason to believe that Bgg is town anymore.

Disclaimer: It is not necessarily MYLO. I could easily see only 2 scum since they get an extra NK through the SK. But we assume the worst situation of course.

As I outlined to Refgan the Haylen and CMAR mentioned the idea of having 2 mafia a bit too often which leads me to beleive there is only 2.

All three mafia have been pushing the idea of there only being two mafia. Whether these posts were meant to be fake town slips or lull the town into lynching without thinking the game is on the line, I don't know, but it is definitely a common thread running through all three of them that I haven't seen much of from any of the town players. In any case, by the end of the game, Max was the only one who was still suggesting there were only two mafia in the set up. The town players all correctly concluded that balance demanded three.

Is it more likely that Max was an experienced town player mistaken about the setup or that he is an experienced scum player who was knowingly planting a town slip?

[subgenius]

I'm flattered but you give me too much credit >_>

Considering Haylen and CMAR have both already been proven to have employed the exact same tactic, I don't think that it requires a criminal mastermind to realize that purposely making setup mistakes can serve to mislead the town either about alignment or the state of the game. You were employing the same tactic as the two confirmed scum, while every town player arrived at a different conclusion. Regfan and Vollkan should consider just how debatable the setup actually was and whether it is more likely that you guessed wrong as town or that you purposely continued a tactic that your teammates had used in an effort to bolster your credibility in the exact situation we now find ourselves.

[subgenius]

Pretty sure I did. I thought there was 2 mafia because Haylen (the flipped mafia) and CMAR(the likely mafia) talked about there only being 2 mafia a few times. I thought they were mafia hinting at the set-up which I have seen mafia do before - I don't know why they do it, but they do.

I would like to see a game where the mafia plainly stated facts about the setup that only they could know just for the hell of it. It strikes me as supremely unlikely that an intelligent town player would give any credence to a confirmed scum's speculations about setup.

Secondly, I agree with you that it is unlikely that Hindu would have sent in the kill if he was paired with Vollkan or myself. This is another point that I would like Vollkan and Regfan to consider. Isn't it pretty convenient that there were 2 scum players heading into D4 and yet Max catches the most heavily suspected player in the game executing the kill?

Isn't it also convenient that Hindu didn't even try to deny targetting SB? He gave every appearance of being a smart player, yet he was remarkably docile when faced with Max's accusation. Is it more likely that Hindu, an experienced player, completely botched his response to Max's claim or that he purposely went down easy since the two of them had planned the claim the night before?

Max's version of events requires some really dumb behavior from Hindu, who has quite a few games under his belt, and myself, and I would like to believe that I've shown myself to be a reasonably thoughtful and intelligent player.

In actuality, Max and Hindu are both scum, and they're both smart. They saw that they were in rough shape going into D4 and planned to sacrifice Hindu for the benefit of giving Max solid credibility going into MYLO on D5.

Max's version is two smart people royally screwing up. My version is two smart people acting appropriately. Which is more likely?

[subgenius]

Was'nt everybody going off the idea of lynching Hinduragi? If mafia Max planned a bus it would of been the other way other around. (He jailkept me, no kill, I is caught scum etc.)

It is true that he was gaining in credibility, but I think it's still fair to say he was a leading suspect. Your claim worked better because it was new and less tarnished. Plus, you would make an extremely unlikely jail keeping target. He would have had to explain why he used his one shot ability in an offensive bid to MAYBE catch scum rather than n defensive move to protect a confirmed innocent. Hindu jailkeeping you would have been a very tough sell. In addition, even if he successfully bussed you, he would have had lower chances to survive the next day, given his slot's spotty history. Plus, in the Max claim/bus version, you two had the opportunity to kill someone. The only way for Hindu to be confirmed was to skip a night kill. You two went with the better plan.

1) Narrowing the decision to 2 players instead of having a standard 3-way choice in LYLO.

As previously discussed, this is irrelevant. It doesn't matter how many people are cleared as long as you are perceived as more credible than one remaining townie.

2) A gamble that Regfan's role did'nt involve a gun

It's possible that you actually are some sort of role cop, or as Vollkan argues, it's possible that the risk was negligible.

3) A gamble that Vollkan and Subgenius had no active ability of any sort. (to roleblock)

I don't think claiming in your situation is any more risky with a role blocker involved than remaining an unclaimed goon. Would a roleblocker have targetted you last night after your claim? No way. There was some risk that there was another roleblocker who would have been highly suspicious of you, but that's a risk that any fake claimer takes. CMAR took it, Haylen (sort of) took it, and you took it.

Mafia max would of safely claimed VT and took Regfan and Vollkan into LYLO with him.

Given the end of D3, I don't think VT claimed mafia max would have fared well in such a scenario.

[subgenius]

Just rereading bit more:

Maxous ISO 90 Bolds are added

For myself to be in a mafia team that would require the mafia to brillaintly double-guess who Hinduragi would roleblock/protect and take a big chance in revealing that he visited Scott to frame him. I can't be a mafia tracker because my buddy would have to be a roleblocker and if the two of us used abilities then who sent in the kill?

Oh wait! Actually I could be mafia with Hinduragi and we set this whole thing up.

Ah still, anyway you look at it Hinduragi has to be mafia unless I'm like, half-psychic

This is Max explaining how unlikely it would be for him to fake claim and correctly guess who Hindu jailed while also having a role blocker. The interesting part is that he sarcastically mentions the exact tactic his team actually used as if it's absurd. At that point in the game, I will admit that I had not thought of the possibility of Hindu and Max being partners. Nobody else had mentioned this possibility either. Would the possibility have occurred to town Max? And if it did, would he have highlighted it as an absurd idea like this? Or was scum Max having fun with his partner (this post was partly in response to Hindu's phony protestations of Max's claim) or possibly flaunting a fake claim that seemed to be proceeding swimmingly or maybe preemptively making an attempt to dissuade the town from taking such ideas seriously.

Again, this is hardly a smoking gun, but think about it. Is it more likely that town Max was the only town member to consider the possibility of a fake claim/bus combo, or that scum Max was riding high on a fake claim that town was eagerly swallowing and decided to flaunt his success a bit?

The idea had not occurred to me. Regfan, Vollkan, did it occur to either of you?

[subgenius]

There is absolutely no general rule that mafia power roles cannot both use a power and carry out a kill. The position in specific games varies, generally depending on mod preference and balance. And yet, the quote above has Maxous very clearly assuming a particular position on this issue, which implies inside knowledge.

Actually, I think I was the first one to draw conclusions based on the assumption that mafia players can only perform one action per night.

Post 1254

I'd be willing to bet Hindu is a goon and his partner has an ability of some kind. That would explain why the mafia picked such a highly suspected slot to execute the kill.

Like others, I was trying to sort out the implications of Max's claim, and one of the loose ends in my mind was why Hindu would have executed the kill. I had always mistakenly assumed that only one action could be performed per night, and that assumption provided an explanation for why Max might have caught Hindu. It's possible that Max saw my line of reasoning and sensed an opportunity to incorporate it into his own arguments for bolstering his claim. Or maybe my generally mistaken assumption happens to be correct in this particular game. I don't know.

[subgenius]

1. ISO #37 by Maxous - Reads as a slight-town tell.

I suppose you're saying this is a town tell because Max says he is willing to lynch either Yura or Truant while doubting the case on Andrew, but given the facts that Yura was a VI and Truant was a mega-lurker, I believe bussing either one of them while going on the record as opposing the lynch of Andrew (who was probably town as far as Max was concerned) was the optimal scum strategy.

I would also like to hear your current thoughts about what you said yesterday:

I'm slightly hesitant to hammer here, this is a position where mafia bussing causes them to lose due to Maxous being able to RB tonight yet Vollkan and Subgenius voted along so quickly. I need to do some thinking, something isn't adding up.

You noticed something not adding up yesterday, but it adds up perfectly with Max bussing Hindu. What are your current thoughts on the end of D4?

[subgenius]

however there is some legitimacy to the timing of his claim as well as Hinds reaction towards it.

One other point regarding Hinds reaction to Max's claim. According to Hindu's profile, he has played in about a dozen games, and based on his posts, he has demonstrated an ability to write coherent thoughts. This would lead me to conclude that he is both experienced and not a moron.

Now consider a scum player's possible responses when faced with an incriminating tracker claim from a town player.
1)Admit that you targeted the player who was killed the previous night, thereby incriminating yourself and bolstering the claim of your accuser.
2)Lie about who you targeted and do your best to discredit the town player's claim.

Option one is for dumb people. Option two is for smart people. Option one can also be for smart people if a bus had been prearranged.

If you believe that Max is telling the truth, you also believe that Hindu had a massive brain fart as he formulated his response to Max's claim. Confirming your accuser's role makes absolutely no sense unless you're part of some kind of bussing scheme.

[subgenius]

Glad to see you're finally taking my points seriously.

As far as the contradiction between the meticulous planner and the gloating liar, I'm not sure it's such a huge contradiction. My main point in bringing up the fact that you mentioned the possibility of you bussing is that the idea never crossed any of the town player's minds. Why you mentioned the idea is beyond me, but you were the only one that thought of it, which I think is telling.

The example you use to prove that you have a talent for imagining unlikely scenarios is not valid, imo. You suggested the existence of a lawyer along with godfather during the speculation about the reliability of cop investigations. These are no brainer considerations, and people were already talking about framers.

What Subgenius is doing here, is what mafia commonly do when they are looking for a case on someone. Read through the ISO selectively choosing lines that they can pick out and present it in a scummy way. I could look through the ISO of any of the four of us here and do the exact same thing.

Everyone should remember that regardless of whether I am town or scum, my faction wins if you are lynched today. You and I are the only ones who know the truth here, and the game depends on which of us is lynched today. At the risk of sounding self-righteous, I am going to simply say that I am town, and I'm playing for the win, which means you must die, which means I need to find compelling evidence. You are not confirmed, and you have no business saying that I am scummy for trying my hardest to convince people of my innocence and your guilt.

As long as we're applying generic scum tells to each other, though, why is it that you're content to maintain a defensive posture in this exchange? Shouldn't you be trying to get me lynched? Do you really think that your claim is so airtight that you don't actually need to convince anyone I'm scum? It seems to me that you're taking a passive and reactive position, trying to conservatively wait your way to a win without having to stick your neck out too far to actually build a case.

I beleived [CMAR's] jailkeeper claim.

Does not add up. Why did you vote him at the end of D4 if you believed his claim?

Now keep in my mind this is meant to be my mafia partner here. Realisitically there is no scum benefit for calling for that.

So scum doesn't bus now? You get town cred for busing regardless of how good your future parter might be. There is benefit.

And now this incident in which people started becoming convinced I was mafia. So I have been suspecting Yura/Haylen for about 2 day periods, trying to get them lynched(along with CMAR) and when they are about to get lynched I state how lynching due to set-up speculation is not a good idea. So when the momentum swung towards Haylen I stuck to my guns against the line of fire. But if I was mafia bussing my partner the entire time it would be strange not to go along with the lynch and instead of stick my head out like I did, inviting the suspicion on me. The entire point of bussing is to not look suspicious.

I agree that this is strange. I can only speculate that at some point and for some reason you decided to focus your busing efforts on CMAR/Hindu. I don't know why. Perhaps you began defending Haylen because it started to look likely that you would end up with two lynched partners, which seemed like too much busing. I don't know.

[subgenius]

Yes it is. I was either one or the other.

Ok, there is a contradiction, but it isn't important. The important part is that your thinking at the time was different than the other town players. I speculated that you might have been gloating, but if I'm wrong about that, it doesn't change the fact that you were the only one to think of a bus scenario. Similarly, I could speculate as to why you were pushing the idea of only 2 maf, and all of my speculations could be wrong, but it wouldn't change the fact that, again, you are the lone player who claimed to think there were only 2 mafia in the setup.

The cons of losing my mafia partner in that situation far outweighs the pro's of slightly having less suspicion on me.

That's possible, but highly debatable. There are benefits to busing at any time, it's a judgement call as to whether they outweigh the costs.

The scenario I was thinking of was:

Hinduragi would not jail and lie and said he did.
Hinduragi would jail somebody and lie about who he jailed.

This does not add up!

You thought there were probably only two mafia, which would make Hindu the last one. You also thought mafia were not allowed to perform two night actions. If you were telling the truth, you would have expected Hindu to send in the kill, not jail. At the very least you would have included killing in your list of possibilities. You're answering the question on Regfan's terms rather than maintaining a consistent set of assumptions. You are demonstrably lying right here. I believe this is the strongest bit of evidence against you yet.

NK analysis

Yeah, SB was one of the only people in the game to express suspicion of me, but in the short time he was in the game he suspected four total people. He was clearly a good player and clearly ready to change his reads quickly. Considering the speed with which he nailed Haylen to the wall, I don't think it's outlandish to think that you and Hindu offed him simply because he was an aggressively good player who had a good chance of blowing holes in your scheme the next day.

As far as bgg goes, it surprised me that he was the NK choice at the beginning of today, and it still surprises me. It surprised to such an extent that I felt compelled to suggest a pretty outlandish reason for him being the NK choice, because it seemed so strange and demanded an explanation. I have no idea why he was killed.

[subgenius]

I suspected there might be 2 mafia before N3 due to comments but it was'nt a strong suspicion(convincement even) until after the night when I tracked Hinduragi to killing Scott.
In N3 I worked off the assumption that there was 3 mafia. Hence I tracked Hinduragi to see if he would lie about using his JK power.

The following quotes show that you were suggesting two members before N3.

That group you listed, is there scum in that? I'm unsure to be honest. I'm thinking maybe the mafia pairing is Haylen - Hinduragi (due to predeccessors actions of course). If there is a third member - I'm a bit stumped.

(ISO 80)

Maybe.
Alternatively it could be a 2 mafia set-up.

(Max ISO 78)
Whether you were sure about 2 mafia or not, you were certainly giving it credence before you tracked Hindu, which means that it should have entered your thought process that Hindu would be sending in the kill.

He saw that defending CMAR would'nt work so went back to distancing and beleived my claim etc.

Yes, I got cold feet about the CMAR lynch towards the end of D3. I thought people were settling on his lynch without much discussion, and I found it concerning considering we were most likely in MYLO. If most of the people on that wagon had given compelling evidence for their voting intentions, I wouldn't have been as concerned. I just thought the lynch was proceeding suspiciously easily. Proclaiming him almost certainly town at the end of D3 really was a bluff in the hopes of getting Mafia to kill him during the night. It didn't work for obvious reasons.

If you guys are more willing to beleive that ....argued against the set-up speculation reasoning during Haylen's lynch inviting the suspicion on me,

I love how defending a confirmed Maf is scummy when I was hesitant to lynch CMAR, but it was townie when you defended Haylen. We both did essentially the same thing, and you're being pretty hypocritical by trying to say that it's only scummy in my case. If Regfan and Vollkan care to look into both events and decide which seemed more genuine, I'd welcome it. I still don't know why you didn't find it interesting that Haylen's role was against the stated rules.

cleared Regfan as a gambit on Day 3

Again, this served to bolster your credibility, and you only need to lynch one town player, not three. As long as you didn't confirm all of us, you're in good shape.

...cleared Vollkan as a gambit

To be honest, I'm not sure you thought that part through. I noticed when Regfan suggested the roleblocking plan that you didn't seem especially enthusiastic about it. In hindsight, it might have been because you didn't realize that role blocker would be useful for further narrowing down the suspects. I also recall you questioning a few times today whether or not role blocking blocked night kills, further showing that maybe you hadn't taken that plan into account when you picked roleblocker as your final ability.

suggested there was only 2 mafia as a deliberate misleading town tell

Again, you were the only player that claimed to think this was likely. Everyone else correctly assumed there were three. You're a smart guy, and so are Vollkan and Regfan. They should ask themselves how much in question the setup actually was. To me, it really wasn't, and we already have two examples of other scum players misleading town in this way. I think it's compelling.

gloated and suggested myself as bussing Hinduragi

Again, you seem to be missing the point about this piece of evidence. It doesn't matter why you mentioned the possibility of you busing, the fact is that it never crossed the mind of any other player, because it seemed so absurdly unlikely that you would have a connection to Hindu. It's odd that you would have thought of it unless it was actually the case.



I suppose I'll go ahead and throw my vote in as well. If either Regfan or Vollkan would like any clarification of anything or questions, please ask them.

vote: Maxous

[subgenius]

Re-reading an exchange between Max and Hindu:

Post 1268

Preview edit: For myself to be in a mafia team that would require the mafia to brillaintly double-guess who Hinduragi would roleblock/protect and take a big chance in revealing that he visited Scott to frame him.
I can't be a mafia tracker because my buddy would have to be a roleblocker and if the two of us used abilities then who sent in the kill?

Oh wait! Actually I could be mafia with Hinduragi and we set this whole thing up.

Ah still, anyway you look at it Hinduragi has to be mafia unless I'm like, half-psychic

Post 1270

Regarding the p-edit:
Yes, it would, that's why I explained how far-fetched it seemed. It's a huge stretch.
Good point.

LOL, that would be awesome.

Yeah, half-psychic, I'm still thinking about how you figured it out.

So, this is Hindu responding to the post where Max mentions the possibility of the two of them being in cahoots. He responds to each of Max's statements in sequence, and I've bolded Max's mention of busing and Hindu's response to the busing idea, which is, "LOL, that would be awesome." Why on earth would he say this? This is almost a covert high five between the two of them.

Additionally, why in the world does every one of Hindu's responses to Max in this post serve to give more credibility to Max's claim? This is the last thing Hindu should be doing unless he is part of a team that is banking on Max's credibility going into the next day. I've brought up this point before, but good lord, just look at it. That is not how scum responds to a town power role.

@Vollkan
Are there any loose strings that you would especially like to see addressed?

[subgenius]

Ugh...I'm getting really frustrated by the WIFOM swinginess of this. Behaviour gives nothing to separate the pair of you and, whilst SubG is being convincing, everything just collapses into WIFOM.

I'll admit that in this case I think I'm more comfortable having my neck on the line but knowing the truth than being the one who has to make the decision on little more than a gut feeling.

I don't think every part of the case against Max is WIFOM. In particular, the fact that he did not list the possibility of tracking Hindu to a kill shows an inconsistency in his story. There are quotes from before N3 that show him toying with the possibility of there only being two mafia. If he truly thought a two mafia team was a possibility, he would have also considered the possibility that Hindu would execute the kill, but he didn't mention that at all when he explained his choice to track Hindu. The fact that his explanations for his actions don't fully take into account the opinions he claimed to hold at the time he made his decision shows that he is lying. That is not WIFOM.

Secondly, I don't think Hindu's response to Max's claim has much WIFOM in it. Technically, it is possible that Maxous is town and Hindu went down easy in a conscious effort to look like a bus, but even when I try to look at it completely objectively (after all I'm quite biased when I consider this scenario), it just strikes me as exceedingly unlikely that a scum player would execute that kind of tactic on the fly without having any opportunity to discuss it with a scum partner. He would be handing a great deal of credibility to Max in the hopes that his partner would pick up on it the next day and be able to make a strong case without ever having the chance to confer with him. It's possible, but it seems overly complex and unlikely. The Max/Hindu bus plan is also complex, but they had an entire night period to plan it, so it seems far more plausible. Admittedly, there is some WIFOM, but one option seems so implausible that I really can't imagine anyone actually executing it. It's possible that I only hold this opinion because I'm not looking at it impartially, but I don't think so.

[subgenius]

If you thought Haylen was a mafia redirector, why were you defending her at the end of D3? Also, if you thought Haylen's claim could be valid (which you must have if you were trying to slow down her lynch) how could you have also thought that town would have so many power roles while still entertaining the idea that there were a mere two mafia?

Why would you prefer to keep a maf alive to possibly role block than simply lynch the mafia? That's silly as hell.

[subgenius]

I said the set-up speculation reasoning was a bad idea. Just because I think somebody is mafia does'nt mean any reasoning goes. I could of been wrong about her being mafia, and there was mafia taking advantage for an easy lynch.
I thought it was valid claim...as a mafia power.
I did'nt prefer to keep mafia alive I was stating my willingness to lynch Haylen most of Day 3.

This is riddled with contradictions. I can understand not being sure that someone is mafia and being wary of mafia pushing an easy mislynch (after all, that is pretty much what happened when I unvoted CMAR), but I cannot understand trying to take the wind out of a case against one of your top suspects without fully researching the accusations. Not only did you say that the setup speculations were invalid, but you also tried to argue that my point about her choice of defense was also invalid. My point was only indirectly related to setup speculation, but you still chose to dismiss it and add your support to Haylen's defense (and try to incriminate me in the process), and now you're trying to say that you thought she was mafia the whole time. I don't see how anyone could buy this.

He likely just made a mistake, since he did'nt have much time to react.

He had as much time to react as he wanted. It's not like we were close to deadline or anything. He could have taken as much time to make a non-idiotic response as he wanted. There was no rush, and he chose to help confirm your role.

I doubt he purposely confirmed he targeted Scott just to make me look bad.

Exactly, he purposely confirmed he targeted Scott just to make you look good. That's the whole point. It's possible that he simply made a mistake, but as I've argued before, Hindu seemed to have a solid understanding of the game, and admitting that he targeted a newly shot player is dumb beyond belief, so that seems unlikely.

[subgenius]

If you can't understand why did you earlier say you accepted my explanation? #1253

Two reasons:
1. I really wanted to believe your claim and I was willing to cut you a bit of slack since everything else seemed to add up quite nicely.
2. When you were defending Haylen and making your later explanations of your defense, you hadn't said that you thought Haylen was scum at the end of D3. Now you're trying to say that you defended Haylen while also thinking she was scum, which doesn't make sense.

You're going to have to point this one out.

ISO 81

Further, I find Haylen's method of defense suspicious. If her role was valid, I would expect her to be legitimately surprised as well as irritated with the mod for assigning a role that could potentially put so much heat on her. Instead,

her first reaction is to explain why the role makes sense based on her understanding of normal rules

, which is pretty clearly incomplete, which would explain why she claimed redirector in the first place.

vote: Haylen

I raised an eyebrow at this vote..
She explained why her role can be in the game, why should she be outraged and surprised if she moderated a game that had a couple of these 'unusual' or whatever roles?

My point there was that besides her claim being against the rules, her defense was suspicious. This was a point based on psychology rather than set up speculation. The point was that a townie in her situation would have read the rules and realized that her role was explicitly forbidden and set about trying to convince town that regardless of the stated rules, the mod or game reviewers must have made a mistake. Instead, Haylen chose to present a lame series of arguments to show that her role was actually allowed. For some reason you immediately bought Haylen's explanations, came to her defense, and tried to transfer suspicion to me, yet now you're claiming you thought Haylen was scum the entire time.

I think he made a mistake saying he jailed Scott o_O

We're just going to have to disagree on this, and Regfan and Vollkan will have to decide which they think is more likely: Hindu made a series of boneheaded mistakes or Hindu presented a lame (even counterproductive) defense to help ensure a smooth claim and bus.

I think that between Hindu corroborating your tracking investigation and explicitly agreeing with all of your points about how unlikely it was for you to be scum (and bear in mind, these counterproductive behaviors continued through several posts), you're suggesting that Hindu had a remarkably sustained brain fart, while in my version he's following a previously agreed upon plan.

[subgenius]

P.S. I'm going to be V/LA starting this Thursday and continuing until Sunday evening.

[subgenius]

I do find it amusing that Hinduragi's response will likely end up sinking the town despite me nailing a mafia.(he was probably going to be lynched anyway but whatever). I honestly don't think I could of used my night power much more effectively in this game
The irony is really not lost here

I always feel like a jerk when I call someone on AtE, but I feel like I have to do it anyway. The resignation, talking about how you did your best, etc is fishing for sympathy, and I don't expect Regfan and Vollkan to fall for it.

Anyhow, I don't see myself digging up much more of interest either. I'm happy to answer questions. Hopefully we hear from Regfan this evening.

[subgenius]

I agree that it's not a scum tell, but I'd hate for anyone to see it as a town tell.

[subgenius]

I'm going to sound like a broken record at this stage but if a townie is night killed instead of a confirmed town then there is a reason for it. Nine times out of 10 the reason is that the confirmed town was on the wrong track. Otherwise the mafia would kill the confirmed town and nobody can pin WIFOM on them since the kill was obvious.

This is as WIFOM'y as it gets. I think SB would have made a good NK choice regardless of who the scum team actually was. He had made aggressive accusations against CMAR, Vollkan, Haylen, and myself. He brought a lot of energy to the town and was actively scum hunting while the rest of us were stuck in the doldrums. Not to mention, it's plausible that you and Hindu decided to kill him to set up a NK based case against whoever between Vollkan or myself ended up being the primary suspect, knowing that you were planning to clear Regfan. There's no telling why SB was killed, and there are several plausible explanations.

I did not realise how strict the rules were and thought exceptions were allowed since they said weak doctor and sledgehammer was an exception so it did'nt make sense to me at the time.

The post in which you defended Haylen was immediately after my post where I quoted which unusual roles were allowed. I pointed out that re-director was not included in that list. Weak doctor and sledgehammer were allowed. I guess you chose to ignore that, though.

[subgenius]

Stuck in the doldrums?

Yes, there was no direction and no new scum hunting going on. People were only discussing lynch vs no lynch and how to use power roles. I can't be the only one who thought the game felt stuck at the time.

And yeah, agressive accusations against other people..

Other people at the time, but he was in the game for only half a day and raised suspicions against 4 separate players. He wasn't exactly tunneling in on anyone, and he was clearly more than willing to move on to new fos's. While he was the only one to raise an FoS at me, it wasn't as if he was leading a crusade dead set on getting me lynched. Admittedly, there would be a slight motivation to kill SB if I was scum, but it wouldn't be especially strong, and there would be reasons to kill him if you were scum as well. I just don't see this SB NK as a particularly strong piece of evidence. SB would have made a good NK regardless of who was scum. He was simply a really good town player. You have a point, I just think it's a weak one, and I don't think it would be enough to sway me if I were looking at this from a neutral perspective.

As for the NK case..that would be more plausible if I came up with it right away instead of leaving it so late(I did'nt think of it for ages unfortunatly ¬_¬) instead of.. you know bringing it up straight away after the kill.
That is how a mafia does a NK case. It is because thay are already thinking of the implications of the kill when they make it.
I actually wish I thought of half of this stuff at the start..might of made things smoother >_>

You might notice that my points have been made in roughly reverse chronological order. My first points were made based on the most recent events, because they were freshest in my mind. I mentioned the NK early because it was one of the most recent facts to be revealed, and I was still forming fresh thoughts on it. The NK point was weak, and I think pretty clearly the product of me brainstorming about the game as I received new facts. I tried to find a reason for a strange NK, and I failed, and I still have no explanation for it.

[subgenius]

Aw, well that's frustrating. Sorry about all the townie on townie fighting on the last day.

It did occur to me about a week into D5 that Vollkan could be a role blocker, but by that time, I thought my case against Max was going well, and I had dug up enough evidence to convince me that he was definitely scum, so I decided it wasn't worth compromising my case by suggesting a second possibility that I judged to be pretty remote. Vollkan's slow and deliberative played on D5 also helped to clear any thoughts of second guessing my Max case.

That's a tough loss, especially since I dismissed the correct answer. Oh well, I guess I probably would have been lynched and lost regardless.

GG Vollkan. I really would be curious to hear what Hindu's thought process was when he admitted to targetting SB, it just seems like a really bad move imo, unless he really was trying to fake a bus, in which case, bravo.

[subgenius]

Subgenius, I did it mainly to gambit.

Nice play. I fell for that hook line and sinker, I think mostly because I was motivated to latch on to anything that would clear me.

Town: Why didn't you guys push for a no lynch?

It never even crossed my mind. I was quite sure Max was scum, so I had no reason to suggest NL.


I didn't really have much time to respond in my first post game post, but after reflecting on it a bit more, I think the game was pretty much unwinnable for town by D5, which isn't necessarily unfair considering we lost two of our strongest PR's in the first two days and didn't lynch any mafia until D3. If we had won, it would have represented a massive comeback. Anyhow, I don't think there was much chance of getting a lynch through on Vollkan on D5, even if the possibility was suggested, partly because he played very well for the first four days and partly because of the inherent improbability of him being a role blocker and the unclear mechanics that double role blocking involves. I think it would have been extremely difficult to implicate Vollkan based the possibility that he MIGHT be a roleblocker, when the simpler and likelier explanation by far was that I was scum. I would certainly support a site wide effort to clarify power role resolutions in an effort to avoid any confusion in the future. I place no blame on Fitz.It was a well modded game, and I think his interpretation of the rules was fair.

One thing I was thinking of doing at the end of D4 was requesting that I be roleblocked instead, since I knew I was town. My thought was that Vollkan's only option if I was RB'd would be to NK, which would grant town an extra mislynch, which would guarantee us the win (I had no suspicion of Max at that point). I ended up not doing that, because I thought it would be construed as a strange (and therefor scummy) request.

I felt like I played pretty well this game, but any feedback is welcome. This puts me at 0-4 in mafia on this forum now.

Anyhow, well played maf. It came down to the wire, and I really did enjoy D5, even though I was approaching in completely incorrectly. I was still a bit disappointed that Regfan picked me to lynch, even though it really didn't matter.

[subgenius]

I would have answered hypothetical questions about how I would handle two RBs if it had been asked.

Yeah, I considered asking about it, but I thought that it would be a better idea to focus my efforts on getting Max lynched. I re-read Vollkan a bit before I decided, and I concluded that there was way more evidence against Max, so gg Vollkan, and gg Hindu for giving me ample fuel for my busing suspicions.

Yeah, sorry about that. If it's any consolation I didn't vote you because I believed you were mafia I actually had a town-read on you throughout the whole game but rather I didn't see any possible way that Maxous could be mafia, he answered and responded to all my qualms I had about him.

Yeah, I don't envy that decision. I was certainly more comfortable thinking I knew the truth of what happened.

[subgenius]

I felt a bit bad for you, Haylen. That's a frustrating way to be caught, especially since you seemed to be coasting along with your claim quite comfortably at the time.