Mini 1800 - Game Over

[karnos]

VOTE: Dierfire
...because reasons.

[karnos]

@kappy

Going back a bit. Why did you self vote?

To be funny.

VOTE: Kappy

I'm trying to be funny too. Is anyone laughing?

[karnos]

UNVOTE:

In all seriousness, I don't see a good target for a serious vote yet. I don't think kappy is in danger of being quick-lynched, but I don't want to be implicated if it does somehow happen while I am away.

[karnos]

In all seriousness, I don't see a good target for a serious vote yet. I don't think kappy is in danger of being quick-lynched, but I don't want to be implicated if it does somehow happen while I am away.

Your worry is about being implicated, and not the (highly unlikely) quicklynch itself?

I don't like kappy but it could just be playstyle silliness. This sounds like scum thinking.

It bothers me that this post got buried so easily, because it's 100% truth.
VOTE: karnos

I caught up with the thread a bit late, made an RVS vote, reviewed the thread and decided Kappy was acting weird enough that I wanted to vote him. I almost immediately realized that persivul had just called out sickofit for wagoning kappy, and I also knew since it was my wife's birthday I wouldn't be able to post for the rest of the day, I figured unvoting would be safer than leaving with such a controversial post.

And I phrased it as I did because I wouldn't be worried about a quick lynch that did indeed flip a scum Kappy, but I didn't want to be implicated if I was wrong and he was an innocent townie. Being only a few hours into the first day I wasn't ready to stake everything on one read.

[karnos]

Is playing without an avatar a scum tell?

[karnos]

After a full review of the thread, I've gotta re-vote my RVS target:

VOTE: Dierfire

Stop hiding.

If I posted my reads list, it would just be pretty damn similar to everyone else. I think it's obvious chumba is acting extremely pro-town, sickofit and kappy acting a little silly and scummy, and just about everyone else falls in between. Hard to have a strong read on anyone at this point in the game. I'd like to at least see a couple posts from every player by now, the game has been up for almost 24 hours right?

[karnos]

I was thinking that too, but this is my first normal game so I didn't want to make assumptions.

Bitch I just got a new avatar now, how do I look?

It's like Jesse Pinkman playing robin hood.

[karnos]

Thank you karnos for reinforcing my read on you.

I don't like your vote. They'll either turn up or get replaced. Voting someone before they've turned up always just feels like a safe play for scum. Also you say kappy and sickofit are acting a little silly and

scummy

. Why vote for someone who hasn't turned up (which is pressure doing nothing, cos they haven't turned up) over someone you think has done scummy stuff?

I don't know, is not having an avatar a scumtell? More importantly, why do you ask? Cos it sounds like you want to call it a scum tell but want to know someone else will follow you first.

What was controversial about your post? You were voting on a viable wagon early game. To me that just sounds like playing the game. I don't get your reasoning. You seem really oversensitive to the fact that it might implicate you.

Shady is a newbie with about a dozen posts, I was just trying to get him to add an avatar and it worked.

I don't like your vote either, do you want to fight about it? Not posting at all feels like a safe play for scum, and without a little tiny bit of pressure the hiding player can step in, make a minor observation and then hide again for awhile. If everyone had posted by now, I still might be voting for the player with the least posts, if I didn't think they posted any actual useful content.

Are you being obtuse? When I made the post, I immediately realized persivul had called out sickofit for doing virtually the same thing, and there was a bunch of back and forth on the topic. I decided I didn't want to get into that mess when I knew I would be out and unable to post. Now that I am back and able to post, bring it on

[karnos]

If you are town, keep the fuck out of my way and help me scum hunt. If you are scum, keep following my scum filled wagon and expose yourself all the more.

This really makes me want to vote you. Knowing how you play, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt a little longer. Call this a

FOS

[karnos]

Lurking is NAI unless you have meta on a person to say otherwise.?

Yes, and who wouldn't want their alignment indicated?

In general, I don't put a lot of trust in day 1 reads. Yes, I do have a couple players noted in the back of my mind as acting a bit suspicious, but I think they are already getting enough pressure and my vote isn't needed. So I'd rather get some discussion going among the less active players and see how they act and react before even thinking about who the first real lynch should be.

I tend to be a fairly active player when I'm not sleeping. Yesterday was an unusual day for me, so I was feeling a bit paranoid knowing I wouldn't be able to be actively posting. Maybe that paranoia made me come across as scummy.

[karnos]

I have a pitch.

We lynch persivul today: here's why:
If I am lynche today and flip town, persivul can weasel his way ou of a lynch tomorrow.
If Percy is lynche today and flips town, I won't be able to work my way out of tomorrows lynch.

I think everyone is picking a side in this argument, I think we will all agree this is not a TvT.

Lynch persivul today.

If he flips town:
If there is a jail keeper, jail me and kill me if you chose.
If there is cop, cop me.
If neither, I am a viable lynch tommorrow.

If he flips scum:
Then we get a d1 scum lynch. Youre welcome.


If you decide to lynch me today:
You Better lynch Percy tommorrow.

The above sounds like madness. It's way too soon to narrow down the lynch to two names.

You agree it is not alignment indicative, but then use it to imply that someone is scum. That does not follow.

I don't think a singular vote means "hey, this player is scum!". I think it's more like a prod that players can use. Of course, discussing it in the open like this makes it lose value as a pressuring tool.

[karnos]

Mobile post: sorry, connectivity issues, back within 24 hours!

That is about exactly what I didn't want to see. Nothing useful. Luckily for you, Mizzytastic is defending this style of play.

Yes, of course it's NAI. Am I supposed to accept that some players can hide their alignment by not posting or posting insignificant notes like the above and just give them a free pass?

Since my vote isn't doing anything as far as pressure thanks to Mizzy, and I don't expect to see another post from dierfire for awhile, I'll just try this.

VOTE: Kappy

We are past the RVS silliness, what are your serious reads now? Based on your read list, you rate sickofit and chumba as scummier, yet you are still voting persivul, any reason why?

[karnos]

Bullcrap, I was defending not having posted at all. I'm against consistent lurking. I don't believe you have enough evidence to make that claim yet. People have stuff like connectivity issues happen. Not everyone likes phoneposting. Wait 24 hours, see what manifests. If nothing does then go right ahead and look more closely.

This is my FIRST response to you on the subject:

Not posting at all feels like a safe play for scum, and

without a little tiny bit of pressure the hiding player can step in, make a minor observation and then hide again for awhile

. If everyone had posted by now, I still might be voting for the player with the least posts, if I didn't think they posted any actual useful content.

I fucking called it. Exactly what I feared, happened- see bolded text above for emphasis. And your original response? "Lurking is NAI unless you have meta blah blah". I told you from the first response that I wasn't merely concerned with lurkers, I was also concerned with a lurker who posts the absolute minimum post and then goes back to lurking.

[karnos]

She's right - inactivity is NAI absent meta to that effect. He also curtailed activity in another, later stage game. I doubt he's skipping out on that game because he's scum who's afraid to make a D1 post here. You get lurkers through associatives, investigatives, or vigs. Lynching one D1 gives no information and is a waste. Voting them is a lazy excuse for scum hunting.

Sigh.

- I wasn't expecting to lynch the person, but I was hoping at least the pressure of a vote would encourage him to post something useful when he does drop in from lurking. Of course I had to explain this to mizzy, which tends to remove any useful pressure from the act.

- I wasn't concerned about the lurking, I was concerned that the lurker would make an insignificant post as he did to dodge being prodded. I even said so in my original response, when I said if he had no lurkers I still probably would have voted the least active player to get them to post more. The hope was pressure of a vote might encourage a more substantial post when he comes out of lurking.

[karnos]

VOTE: karnos

Feeling pretty tired today, so I don't think I'll be posting much more today. I'll be generally posting more in the weekends I suspect, just as a general guideline.

Somehow I didn't pick up on this the first time I skimmed it. I see whats going on, I was aggressive towards hiding players, so qubixes heads me off and votes me first before he goes into hiding for the rest of the week. now I can't vote him without it being OMGUS!

I don't know, maybe this is something I need to learn from. I tend to distrust hiding players in every game, feel free to look at my game history. When you give them a free pass, how can you make sure scum doesn't abuse your goodwill?

[karnos]

Ha! You can vote me if you think I'm scum. Why are you so worried if it looks like an OMGUS? If you give solid reasoning why I'm scum, it's not OMGUS. You seriously think that I would vote you, because I'm afraid you're going to vote me for inactivity? Also self-meta doesn't look good to me. Apparently you're aware of what you normally do, and you do it here, so that proves... exactly nothing, except you want us to believe you're town?

I meant that in a joking manner, maybe it wasn't obvious enough. I'd absolutely vote you if I thought you were really scum, but even if you are going to hide for a day or two you have been making readable posts prior to that so I don't really have an issue.

[karnos]

Scum - Open 638 - "I don't like the hiding... it makes me think you have something to hide."

Yes, and as town...

1700 In my (brief) experience playing here, I've noticed scum are often the quiet players who post the minimum amount to keep suspicion off, without trying to draw attention to themselves.

1692 Of course, I also find the quietest players are often that because they are mafia trying to keep a low profile, and the annoying talky players are sometimes just poorly playing townies, so you may yet be innocent.

It's part of my general thought process every game.

Also, FYI, 638 was multiball. While I was scum, I was also scum hunting to kill the other scum team.

I see kappy is sensing weakness and pouncing. I'm feeling better about re-voting him.

[karnos]

I like dierfire's entry, lots of good reads. Sorry to see chumba is replacing out, but it'll be very interesting to see how the new player plays in the same slot.

Kappy, thanks for clarifying, that removes the main reason I had for voting you. So lets try this again

UNVOTE: kappy

[karnos]

Kappy

- I read him as acting a bit silly and random in and shortly after RVS, but that isn't obviously scum indicative. His recent post has been better. (nulltown)

sickofit

- If this was a random player I have never played with before in this slot, I'd be reading him as scum. Knowing him from 640, I have to upgrade that some. sickofit: if you are town, please post more carefully and think before submitting. Also: don't self hammer (null)

persivul

- I had a strong town vibe for him yesterday, but now I am really starting to wonder, especially given the town vibe I had for him in 640 in which I just discovered he was actually scum. (nullscum)

VOTE: persivul

[karnos]

I've been lurking, I've had a few thoughts but I wanted to see where the Persivul:Saru thing went. Since that seems to be sputtering out, I'll cut in.

One thing I want to comment on:

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=66642

This game is now abandoned and can be cited. Check sick's play. He was town, but when pressured was very defensive and OMGUSsy. He even self-hammered as town. Compare that to this game where he was scum:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=66158

In that one he kept his cool except for a single post.

In this game he's in between those two. It reads to me closer to the first, and he said unprompted by me that he was toning down his style. So, I have him as town for now.

I find this a bit weird to me. You knew how he played in 640, and in 640 he got pushed hard and even eventually self-voted before flipping town. So in this game, you pushed him right from the start, as sort of a reaction test... but you knew how well that "test" worked in 640, what were you really trying to do? Give him enough rope to hang himself again? Were you thinking that if he was scum you would get a completely different reaction?

[karnos]

Persivul: that is about what I expected to hear, whether from town or from scum trying to act like they aren't scum.

The conversation between Persivul and Saru bores me. From this, I conclude that they're both Town! (I'm only partially joking)

That's why I cut it off.

You cut it off because it makes you sound town, good time to stop?

[karnos]

Expecting an answer and getting an answer are not the same thing. I was hoping you would surprise me.

[karnos]

Perhaps I will. I don't like giving a full road map to scum, but I do have some thoughts I could share.

But it won't happen right now, I need to leave work and pick up my son. Maybe later tonight.

[karnos]

I'm going to be absent most of the day, monthly D&D game is today. I'll try to get caught up tonight after the kid is asleep.

And yes, the reads will be coming when I get some time.

[karnos]

Most of my reads. Skipping someone for obvious reasons. Also, here is my big newbie slip- I don't know how to easily link posts by post number. Is there some shortcut? Doing it the manual way seems to be way too much work, sorry, I will at least provide non-hyperlinked post numbers so you can check my work if you wish. Also, going to come right out and admit this: I tend to show some unintentional bias against players voting me, I'm trying my hardest to read everyone equally.

kappy

started off very weird in RVS. started to develop a significant wagon from those suspicious of his weird behavior, and predictably calmed down and started posting read lists and taking the game more seriously. I'm not too happy though that it seems once his wagon started to fade away so did his posting- A staggering 20 posts Wednesday, 6 Thursday, 7 Friday, final one explaining that he going away and will be posting even less frequently, and nothing yet today. More damning is the fact that his last 5 or so posts are totally game irrelevant, stuff like miss-posts and talk about hockey. Almost sensing that he was only acting town long enough to break away from a wagon- of course that didn't fully work, as he still has several votes to his name.

null/scum

sickofit1138

started posting a bit weird in RVS as well, and almost immediately called out for some inconsistencies in his posting. Pushed hard for a bit by persivul, who eventually seems to be satisfied that sickofit is town. Yet the feeling isn't mutual, and sickofit continues to vote persivul. Also a few posts I really don't like, such as the one saying no town should vote me, only scum, or the one where sickofit offers that everyone should either vote him or persivul. While I don't think I should automatically view him as scum because of knowing his post style in prior games, that certainly doesn't confirm him as town either.

null/null

mizzytastic

Almost every single post by mizzy is a question, prior to #123 where it goes into a more serious attack on me. I don't consider asking questions to be a scum tell, but it almost seems fake, like someone told mizzy to ask a lot of questions as scum so you look like you are town. Even #60, Mizzy's initial vote on me, just looks like a cheap copy of chumba's post #59 a minute prior. After #123, almost every post seems to be focused on me, until a Friday post announcing being away, and no posts at all today.

null/scum

qubixes

Starts by asking questions but quickly moves to more complex analysis, initially with #175 where he votes me. However, unlike mizzy above this looks like legitimate original content, and there is no tunneling- later posts call out species, question the saru/persivul argument, some defending towards kappy (I don't fully agree with TBH, but it doesn't sound scummy), followed by getting a bit caught up in the whole kappy discussion for a few posts.

null/town

chumba

Initial impression was that chumba is clearly town. Her vote on me #59 was real, unlike the nearly identical copy posted by mizzy. A few defensive posts after people question her for defending sickofit, but nothing that screams out scum to me there. Gets a little bit into it and then apologizes for posting so much, odd but not damning. Some interesting points towards persivul, but remains voting kappy. Gets a little defensive later and insists on parking her vote on kappy, and then replaces out.

town

(pending reads of replacement)

mechagoomba

First post #76 is incredibly bad. Seems to be tunneled on proving that chumba is scum because chumba defended sickofit. I read #88 as another bad post... the logic used is that he is unvoting chumba because chuma's stubborn refusal to admit doing what she did proves she is town... I don't like the argument one bit. Almost sounds to me like mechagoomba wanted an excuse to unvote and just had to go with it when chumba refused to confess. After that, jumps on the wagon with mizzy voting me. Comments on my and mizzy's arguments a bit, and makes a remark about species having a "pretty bad" ISO. Goes on to question sickofit about his vote on persival and eventually votes kappy. #312 another terribly bad post from a town perspective, complaining that he can't read a post because it has typos, instead of responding to the content. #324 is also bad, just generally showing a lack of patience and refusal to re-explain anything- this IMO can be a scum tell, if you are simply posting what you truly belive it's easy to repeat a point multiple times using different words, but when you are making stuff up you need to make sure you repeat the exact same stuff each time to avoid contradicting yourself. #331 is bad coming from mechagoomba- note I was trying to keep this notes brief, but this just demands an exact quote "Communication is a two way street. Both the speaker and the listener bear blame when miscommunication happens. To blame the listener ("you're not reading") when you're the speaker and blame the speaker ("creating confusion") when you're the listener is untenable." - I just find this statement coming from mechagoomba to be so ironic, given his earlier refusal to read a post because it had typos and his refusal to re-state a position instead demanding ShadyHood read the top post of the page.

null/scum

snork

Very short ISO, not much to go on. Apparently because he was attending a nieces graduation (congratulations to your niece!), though even after his return we don't have anything new yet. Initial vote of kappy, with a switch to sickofit at #96 for not completely obvious reasons.

null/null

species

Another relatively short ISO. Lots of short posts asking a singular question or making a small point, reminiscent of mizzy's initial ISO before she started to tunnel me. No vote change since his initial vote on sickofit, which is odd. I consider it a scumtell when someone simply sticks with an RVS vote through, because what are the odds that the person randomly picked matches up with their best scum guess from hunting? I need to remember that isn't exactly the situation here though, because species came into the game late, first post was #97.

null/scum

saru

Saru also started posting late in the thread, in this case at #111, right in with a reads list, and some opinions, sounds very towny. Voted persivul initially after catch-up. Has a little back and forth with chumba, and then gets into it good with persivul. Eventually apparently he has had enough from persivul to convince a vote switch to kappy, but also seems to still view persivul as a possible scum. More or less admits that he wants to pressure kappy, which sounds bad but might just be a noobish error, as pressure doesn't work nearly as well when you admit you are only voting to pressure.

null/town

shadyhood

Another short ISO, and another player requesting replacement. I don't have a strong read on this guy and since he is replacing out I'm going to hold off and do his reads later when the new player for the slot has made sufficient posts. TBD

dierfire

I hate the prod dodge posts such as #166, but as a one-time thing I won't deduct points for it. The latest late-comer to the game. Another very short ISO, especially when you deduct his fake filler posts #166, #226, #290, #293(semi-content in this one), #354- that is a *lot* of filler. In his favor while he has few posts some are very detailed posts full of useful information. I don't have a strong read here either. I find his posting style very strange, it's like he isn't active in the thread, just periodically posting his admittedly detailed journal of thoughts. I've really never seen another player post exclusively like this, and I don't know what to make of it.

null/null

[karnos]

Saru

Additional note: Extremely defensive, correcting my read almost immediately...

null/scum

I'm kidding, of course.

I don't expect my reads to be all that accurate being where we are on day 1.

[karnos]

And yeah, I get your point. I just think pressure works best when you never mention the word, until after the desired result occurs.

[karnos]

Karnos: If you have as many scumreads as you have townreads, you need more townreads, because there aren't that many scum in the game. There are always more town than there are scum.

I'm glad you wrote "if", because otherwise you would be misrepresenting me. I didn't have any absolute scum reads, and I had 4 null/scum reads.

However, this is my first normal game. Do normal games never have more than one scum team? Can't a normal game include a serial killer or pyromaniac or other neutral sort of "scum"? I find it interesting that you think you know exactly how many scum are in the game.

I don't know how to easily link posts by post number. Is there some shortcut?

Code: Select all

[post]350[/post]

Or highlight the post number (nothing else, no spaces or # or anything) and click the "post" button. It's the last one.

Thank you, I knew there had to be an easier way.

Qubixes: I don't really feel the need to explain myself to you in detail, the majority of the points you brought up have already been explained. I will say that your entire posts reads like someone who has already decided to vote me and is just looking for excuses to justify that vote... which does match your current situation.

[karnos]

How many Mafia players did MechaGoomba say are in the game?

368

"because there aren't that many scum in the game"

I didn't say he said how many are in the game, he implied that he knows how many are in the game. I just find his wording a little but too specific. He could have said there are

probably

not that many scum, or he could have said

usually

there won't be that many scum, but instead he wrote as if he knows for a fact exactly how many scum are in the game. A slip, or arrogance? Probably the later, but I want to see what others think so I point it out.

[karnos]

You'll be in Kansas until next Saturday, right? That means you won't be focused on this game for a whole week. The deadline is in 9 days from now. Don't you think that calls for a replacement? Not even kidding. Not contributing for a whole week while you have a good amount of suspicion on you will either lead to a policy lynch or replacement. I really prefer the latter at the moment.

While kappy is barely posting because he is in Kansas, there are a number of player who have been posting even less, or not at all in the past few days. Why single him out?

[karnos]

Karnos's 359 mentions that Kappy was much more active on Wednesday. However, he then says that Kappy had more of a wagon then than he does now. This is wrong. Check GreyICE's ISO for the votecounts; the maximum wagon Kappy reached Wednesday was 3 players, and it disintegrated quickly. For most of the past few days, Kappy has had 4-5 players on his wagon.

I think you need to do some more re-reading, because you are putting words into my mouth that I didn't write.

"Almost sensing that he was only acting town long enough to break away from a wagon- of course

that didn't fully work

, as

he still has several votes to his name.

"

What exactly do you think I meant by "that didn't fully work"? What do you think I meant about "he still has several votes to his name"?

Fact: kappy had 3 votes to his name very quickly Wednesday, due to his randomish style of posting and vote jumping and self voting. Later that same day, he starting playing a bit more seriously, the majority of his wagon vanished, and for a time he was only being voted by a single player 77. That is what I was referring to. And then it seemed like kappy was satisfied, he didn't post as much useful content, and people re-upped their votes on him. I'm sorry if you misread my post, but I never said that kappy has a smaller wagon now.

[karnos]

VOTE: mechagoomba

Been near the top of my potential scum list for some time, and the last few interactions with him just gave me a bad vibe. Maybe this vote will just serve as an empty gesture, compared to the existing wagons, but I feel my prior vote is no longer serving a useful purpose.

[karnos]

He said "There are always more town than there are scum."

And he's right, and I don't see how you can find that at all specific.

I was specific when I said there are usually 3 scum in a 13 player game. You don't need to be scum to know that. It's general knowledge.

He made more than one statement. The statement about there being more town than scum is silly and irrelevant, but not a scum tell. It was the other statement, the one I quoted above, that I took issue with.

usually

3 scum in a 13 player
there aren't that many scum in the game

I don't find the first statement to be a scum tell at all, you are stating a fact.

The second statement is the one I find odd, because it's not qualified with a "usually" or "probably". Especially when I didn't even read anyone as definite scum. Mecha was speaking from knowledge. Of course it's crossed my mind that even as a scum, he wouldn't know whether or not another scum team or serial killer exists, but the more I think about it the more I suspect it might have just been both a scum slip and an error, the error being he forgot that there might be more scum than he knows about.

[karnos]

Here's the other statement: "Karnos: If you have as many scumreads as you have townreads, you need more townreads, because there aren't that many scum in the game."

There's nothing specific there either.

A scum slip isn't negated because the rest of the post is reasonable.

[karnos]

Actually I missed exactly what you quoted, I thought you were posting the other part of his message.

"there aren't that many scum in the game"

is incredibly specific, when I only indicated 4 potential scum. It means there are 3 or fewer scum in the game.

[karnos]

The actual ordering is "later that day, his wagon vanished, and then he started playing more seriously." ISO him; everything above 77 is pure fluff with only, what, 2-3 game-relevant one-liners? But then, after 77, he puts out 2 separate readslists. While the second one does come after Persivul and Karnos's vote, he wasn't under particularly serious pressure at the time, and now, when the pressure ramps up, he's inactive.

Not really, but keep lying, it makes your scum motivation more obvious. 45 53 65 71 - not shiny examples of awesome town posting, but they were legitimate serious posts, as opposed to the random silly posting style kappy was using prior. Two of the three players voting him changed votes after 45, so that is why I read kappy as I did.

Also, "everything above 77 is pure fluff with only, what, 2-3 game-relevant one-liners?"

Care to guess how many game relevant posts you have made up to that point? A big fat ZERO. Of course kappy only had a couple short relevant posts, because that is all that ANYONE had at that point. It was the 3rd page of the thread, we were barely out of RVS. You are making an absurd argument and I am calling you out on it.

Been near the top of my potential scum list for some time, and the last few interactions with him just gave me a bad vibe. Maybe this vote will just serve as an empty gesture, compared to the existing wagons, but I feel my prior vote is no longer serving a useful purpose.

Something about this just feels really terrible.
He admits nobody else is going for me, but doesn't actually push me in any way. Town generally aren't that content with being the only one on their scumread.
He fails to actually give any explanation for why he's changing his vote now, of all times. Top of the scumlist, yes, so why not switch to me earlier? Because he didn't have an undefined "bad vibe" then.
And, of course, this vote just coincidentally happens to be placed right after I've finished discussing why I'm unsure that Kappy's scum and I might switch to voting him.

Oh I see, nice OMGUS. In all seriousness I don't consider it a scum tell, and I hate it when people act like it is a scum tell, but I can't resist point out how blatant it is in this case.

I didn't switch to you earlier for obvious reasons I'd be happy to reveal later.

[karnos]

And I screwed up the post links, oops. 45 53 65 71

[karnos]

w/e. I can see I am in the minority on this thought. All the same, I was reading him as scummy before and after that post for other reasons, even if the slip isn't as telling as I think it is I am still voting him.

[karnos]

If that isn't already clear to you, then no explanation is going to be sufficient.

[karnos]

You are not wrong about that first part, I am letting meta-observations from other games slip into my thinking here. However...

you're the only one acting like OMGUS is a legitimate scum tell here

What I actually said:

In all seriousness I don't consider it a scum tell

How exactly do you read "don't consider it a scum tell" to imply that I think it is a legitimate scum tell?

[karnos]

No, I don't think you consider OMGUS a legitimate scum tell. The way you brought it up looked like you were

acting

that it was. Why call it "blatant" when there is nothing scummy about it? Blatant town?! Blatant null?! Here is the quote again for reference:

How am I as a reader supposed to think that you bring up something that is completely null/irrelevant?

Because it still has a meaning. I'm just saying his vote on me might not be motivated purely because he thinks I am scum, but rather as a reaction to me voting him.

[karnos]

It's not just important to separate scum and town, it's also important to figure out which town are playing smart and coming to logical useful conclusions, as opposed to the town that play from emotion and want to lynch the first person to challenge them.

TL;DR: Town can be wrong, and showing why town might be wrong is a useful thing.

In any case, the above is largely a philosophical discussion, because I do believe mechagoomba to be scum. That is, his OMGUS vote isn't what makes him scum, but it certainly doesn't make him town either.

[karnos]

>Why would these useless one-liners be better tools at removing a developing wagon than readslists

I don't know, maybe you should ask the people who changed votes. I was reading based on *what* happened, I don't know exactly why it happened. Although, it might have been related to facts already stated: we are talking page 3, the game was still in RVS mode for a lot of people, and there wasn't a lot of legitimate content to read from.

>Yet every post you have made attacking me is about either the perceived scumslip or my "OMGUS".

If you don't consider my read of you in 359 to be an attack, is that tacit admittance that everything I read into your ISO is true? Notice how my reads on you were longer than anyone else? Notice how I didn't really have much good to say about your ISO? Are you still confused what other reasons I had for voting you?

[karnos]

I think by calling it "blatant" and "doesn't make him scum but

certainly

not town" is just an attempt to make him look more shady. If you don't want to do that, don't add these terms.

He is scum, that is my viewpoint. I don't have to attempt to make him look more shady, his whole ISO is doing that for me.

[karnos]

It's a learned behavior, followed by realization that it's all a lot of BS anyway. I'm sure if you look at all my prior games in order, you would notice some evolution in my play-style. You should also notice something in common among all my town games- I am initially scum read in almost every game, before eventually coming through without getting lynched. I have not been lynched in any game thus far, yet every game seems to start with a wagon on me.

My first newbie game. I had 3 votes to my name very early, due to my play-style and eagerness to lynch.

My second newbie game. Again I had a wagon of 3 votes to my name by VC 1.2

My 3rd game, and only scum game As scum I was never really even close to getting lynched, at most I had 2 votes to my name on any of the vote checks I can see.

My 4th game, mod abandoned Only see myself up to 2 votes on vote checks, I thought I was actually voted higher between checks. /shrug Even if I wasn't voted highly, my perception was that I was in danger of being lynched this game because of constant attacks.

My play has evolved from this. My early games I attracted a lot of negative attention early on, and so I tried to play more carefully at the start of this game. Obviously its not working out too well.

Overall, Karnos' wishy washy style of play compared to his last game does make me suspicious of him.

My last full game was my scum game- you are reading me as scum because I'm not playing the way I play as scum?

Or are you talking about Open 640 - Mod Abandoned? That was an interesting game, the majority of it was extremely polarized between GreyICE and me, until things just broke on day two because of mod miscommunication.

[karnos]

312 MechaGoomba quotes a massive wall of quotes, just to reply

"I have no idea what you're saying. Please try again with more explanation and fewer typos."

324 MechaGoomba

"OK you see that post at the top of the page? Go read it. If you've already read it, reread it. Then make a coherent response to it."

331 MechaGoomba "Communication is a two way street. Both the speaker and the listener bear blame when miscommunication happens. To blame the listener ("you're not reading") when you're the speaker and blame the speaker ("creating confusion") when you're the listener is untenable."

Does this series of posts not bother anyone else? Mecha refuses to put the tiniest effort to respond to qubixes in 312 because of some typos. Mecha refuses to respond to ShadyHood, instead lazily asks him to reread the post at the top of the page. And then Mecha has the audacity to complain about miscommunication to Saru. Yes, he covers his ass by saying "miscommunication is not alignment indicative", but that just begs the question why even bother bringing it all up? Talking about game mechanics, which some see as an easy scum strategy to avoid sharing real reads, this is a step worse than that in my book.

[karnos]

Also, you're just picking a bunch of twisted/bad (imo) interpretations of Mecha's posts and calling it bad. It doesn't feel like you were really putting in some effort to actually try to accomplish anything with the read at that point.

It's what I have to work with. Mecha, maybe you could post some more reads, targeting someone other than me? His ISO is completely bare of real townish posts, and all I see are these mild scum indications. They don't mean much individually, but his reactions and lack of counter evidence is enough for me, for the time being.

Would you prefer some meta analysis, where I take some out of context quote from one of Mecha's other games to try to prove he is scum in this one? Rhetorical question, I don't have the patience nor desire to read through everyone's prior games, even if some of my enemies are that desperate.

[karnos]

312 MechaGoomba quotes a massive wall of quotes, just to reply "I have no idea what you're saying. Please try again with more explanation and fewer typos."

You're reading just to find arguments, not to actually understand and solve the game. He said in 313 to ignore the quotes, meaning he was referring to sick's preceding posts.

Sure, okay I get what he is saying now. Nobody pointed this out to me when I originally posted my reads, and EBWOP is an abbreviation I wasn't aware of. I've looked it up now, sure that makes some sense.

But I don't see how that makes his post a good town post. It's still just dumb filler, followed by a clarifying dumb filler post.

[karnos]

I'm not going to keep banging my head into the wall to make a point, if you want to lynch me go ahead. As long as the scum who started this wagon on me get lynch in the following days, I'll consider it a fair trade.

[karnos]

My responses are in green.

312 MechaGoomba quotes a massive wall of quotes, just to reply "I have no idea what you're saying. Please try again with more explanation and fewer typos."

He used an EBWODP to explain he had not meant to quote. I think that is fine, since the phpBB quote feature can be unreliable.

324 MechaGoomba "OK you see that post at the top of the page? Go read it. If you've already read it, reread it. Then make a coherent response to it.

Whats wrong with this? Mecha was just telling them to read his post again.

Individually, neither is bad. But then you have this

"Communication is a two way street. Both the speaker and the listener bear blame when miscommunication happens. To blame the listener ("you're not reading") when you're the speaker and blame the speaker ("creating confusion") when you're the listener is untenable."

.

Basically, I see Mecha REFUSING to communicate because of typos or poor writing, and then refusing to repeat an argument, because.. why? he is lazy? Whatever, it's okay.

But then he goes on to make some big point about how communication is critical and trying to throw blame around is unacceptable... WHAT? He is just being a huge hypocrite, I don't see any other way to read it..

[karnos]

Individually, neither is bad.

Let me rephrase. They are still bad, because they are fake filler posts. But not *that* bad... until you get to his later post where he reveals just how hypocritical he can be.

[karnos]

@ Karnos - a few questions:

persivul

- I had a strong town vibe for him yesterday, but now I am really starting to wonder, especially given the town vibe I had for him in 640 in which I just discovered he was actually scum. (nullscum)
VOTE: persivul

Are there any specific reasons you were townreading Persivul for? I didn't read the entirety of Open 640 but from an ISO of you and Ctrl+F Persivul, it seemed like he was scum with GreyICE and when GreyICE attacked you, he defended you leading you to townread him. Nothing in this game is comparable to that so where is your read coming from?

Okay, confession time. I never stopped town-reading Persivul. It's not something where I can point at one or two posts and say "there, that is why he is town!", just his general play overall seems like the play a town player should use. He pushed, voted, applied pressure, but when he got a response he thought indicated town he would relent and move to another target. I feel that a scum player would be more likely to ignore the response or act like it's not good enough and keep pushing for a lynch. I lied in the post quoted above.

The reveal that Persivul was scum in open 640 made me realize something. There are some players who are good enough that I won't be able to read them as scum, at least not without some pressure to make them adjust their posting style. At the time, there was a small wagon forming on Persivul, so I made the rash decision to vote him myself, with the above flimsy argument, in the hopes that persivul under pressure might post something I could read as scum.

This is actually what I was referring to in 410 - I didn't want to immediately state that my vote on persivul was entirely fake, because I was still hoping that he might feel slightly pressured and say something he wouldn't say otherwise.

Above said, I am obviously give up on that play. If Persivul is scum this game, I don't think I will ever know.

[karnos]

You apparently gave up in 475, resigned yourself to being lynched. Why not explain yourself then? Why wait until now, if you had this explanation ready all the time and just kept it secret for *reasons*?

You tell me: what is the scum motivation in waiting?

If I do get lynched, I'll have a chance in twilight to share anything else that needs to be shared.

If the only reason you were voting Persivul was to pressure him enough that you could read him, why not unvote after the big Persivul vs. Saru argument? You never followed up your vote. You never pushed Persivul. What could your one unsupported vote give in terms of pressure that a giant pagelong argument couldn't?

I don't *have* an argument. Persivul was playing as town should, IMO. 295 was my lame attempt to push him a little. Could I make up some absolute BS, and try to use that to attack him a little more? Maybe, if I tried, but I didn't want to get myself miss-lynched bad enough for that. In retrospect the whole thing was a poor play. Maybe I should have gone all in on the attack, but I felt my slot was already viewed as scummy by several players and I couldn't risk a full gambit like that.

When you voted Persivul, you made the decision to focus on pressuring him over pushing your scumreads. When you chose not to vote me, even after you put me as a top scumread, you reaffirmed that. You scumread a lot of things I said between 247 and 399, and none of them convinced you to vote me.
So then, what reason could you have to go back on that decision to pressure Persivul and vote me? I didn't suddenly become hyperscummy right before 399. The only good reason would be you realized you were no longer able to pressure Persivul, right?

Reads evolve, and sometimes not pushing a suspected scum can lead to more valuable information than you would ever get by pushing it. I feared that I wouldn't be able to read persivul as scum unless he was pushed, but that doesn't apply to all players. Any scum reads are rather flimsy at this point, and giving you more rope to hang yourself seemed like a better plan at the time. I don't like to do this, but since everyone wants to use meta against me I guess it's fair to bring up: in my previous games, I hated posting read lists. I know my reads are flimsy, and posting them in the thread for all to read just gives a lot of information away that I really don't want scum to have.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 8#p7866218

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p7780459

Those were my first two games, both as town BTW. I've gotten a lot of pushback from this line of thinking, I get the impression that I am viewed as scum because I don't share reads, so I decided to go the other route this game and shared a nearly full read list (minus persivul for obvious reasons- if I revealed that I read him as town, my vote on him would seem incongruous and I wouldn't be applying any pressure). Suffice to say, I am now wishing I just stuck with my previous strategy of keeping my reads close except when I was willing to vote, as sharing my reads as I have somehow just made me look worse and gave some free information away to scum.

Anyway, long story short: I won't always vote a scummy player immediately, or even tell them I see them as scummy, because to me that is essentially saying "hey, if you want to fool me into thinking you are town, quit doing X Y and Z". Just plain bad strategy IMO.

Then, if you saw you weren't pressuring him with a vote on him, why would you still believe you'd be able to pressure him even after unvoting? Your rationale for not explaining in 410 doesn't hold water.

It's psychological. If I vote you and say I think you are scum, and later switch to another person saying something like "well I am even more sure they are scum", it doesn't fully take you off the hook- you might wonder if I will go back to voting you, or if I will vote you after the other person is lynched, etc. It might release some pressure having the vote moved off, but you still know there is a player who wants to lynch you, even if he isn't voting you currently.

And TBH, I really think the above would be completely obvious, but you don't see it because you are blindly pushing your case on me.

[karnos]

Personally, I don't really see the point of waiting out the deadline here. I doubt scum are going to reveal themselves regardless of Karnos' alignment. Anyone agree/disagree?

Really? I guess my opinion will be disregarded since I am the one under the microscope here, but that type of reasoning is always scummy. You have time, use it.

[karnos]

Persivul in 435 and qubixes in 459 accurately capture where I was going in 393: karnos pushes back against MechaGoomba in a way that feels insincere (more like trying to "return fire" than actually trying to read MechaGoomba). I need a VC and time to finally look at those previously mentioned games of karnos, but this is likely to be my vote shortly.

You and others making the same 'observation': I voted MechaGoomba first. If it's scummy to push back with a vote, then you should be reading him as scum, not me.

MechaGoomba: The chance of me claiming before L-1 and intent to hammer is 0%. If someone decides to rush and quick-hammer before claiming, the loss is on them, not me.

[karnos]

Anyway, for bloodthirsty players like Mecha and qubixes, why not use this time to be productive? If I am scum, who are my scum partners?

I'm really curious to see what you think, seeing what you think prior to my flip is much more valuable from a town perspective. If I'm going down, I'd like to take at least one scum with me.

[karnos]

since you voted Kappy for a good chunk of the game but basically did nothing with it. He was also doing his best to ignore you until the wagon on you got really big and then he used flimsy reasoning to hop on.

Dude, I was completely transparent on that, it should be super obvious even for someone tunneling me like you are.

171 I voted kappy, making it clear why with this:

"We are past the RVS silliness, what are your serious reads now? Based on your read list, you rate sickofit and chumba as scummier, yet you are still voting persivul, any reason why?"

I was already reading persivul as town at that point, and was trying to understand why kappy of all people was voting him, especially given his own readslist.

239 I unvoted kappy,

"thanks for clarifying, that removes the main reason I had for voting you"

Based on 235 and 236 , where kappy changed vote targets.

[karnos]

/sigh

Fri Jun 10, 2016 7:38 am This is my first post in the 640 game thread after the scum team reveal.
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p7990492

Fri Jun 10, 2016 8:52 am
247 This was my vote on Persivul in this game, roughly an hour later. Why the hour? Honestly I can't remember, it's been almost a week. I may have been posting or reading in another ongoing game, or I might have actually had to do something for work that morning.

Go ahead, call it a coincidence if you want.

[karnos]

I don't really have anything to add right now. I can reiterate- I will claim if we get to L-1 with intent to hammer, but I'd rather not have to claim for obvious reasons.

[karnos]

The key thing here is:

Karnos admits to faking a read.

He's just saying he did it for town purposes, as a reaction test. But he is still claiming it was fake. He just claims the motivation was town, not scum.
So I suppose the question has to be: If he was reaction testing, why did he leave out Persivul in his readslist?
Wouldn't any answer to that question be just as good an answer if he was scum?

Mecha, there is a reason I am scum reading you. It's posts like the above.

Please tell me, what post of mine has me faking a read?

I voted a player who I was currently reading as town, in the hopes that maybe some pressure on him would make him slip up if he was scum. That is what I did.

I didn't fake a read, I actually excluded him from my list of reads. You seem to be aware of this, so why would you say I admitted to faking a read?

[karnos]

Karnos can you post some updated reads?
I have thoughts but no time so will talk about them later today.

Looks like it might be a slow day at work, so I should have plenty of time.

But now I have a bit of a dilemma.

I agree with most of your post and I'm happy Karnos finally makes it to L-1. Probably don't have to say this, but if Karnos claims, don't CC..

At this point I'm not willing to compromise, and I don't think there's much that will change my willingness.

It sounds like a decision has already been made.

[karnos]

Please don't quick hammer. Actually has anyone posted intent to hammer? I just don't want to claim unless it's absolutely necessary, it's really better for my role to remain unknown.

[karnos]

The dilemma is that I am wondering if there might be a town power role in this game that, by nature of how it is played I thought it was scummy, but really the player was just taking advantage of the role.

I might have said too much already, but you are pushing me into a corner. I don't want to out a town power role.

[karnos]

Well, then don't out them if you think it is a town power role? I'm not seeing the problem here.

Well yeah you don't see the problem, you aren't the one being lynched. As much as I hate to do it, I'd rather share my theory and possibly out a PR than see myself get lynched for no gain.

Anyway, it can be tough to give unbiased reads when I am in the spotlight like this, I'll try:

Dierfire - I don't like you, but I am not thinking you are scum exactly. I like that you are doing your own homework at least.

The Bulge (replaces Chumba) - MIA? I thought Chumba seemed pretty town, but since being replaced the bulge has not been very talkative. Literally only one post in the last 5 days. busy? hiding?

species - Totally MIA. If I were to follow my instincts, I'd say here is the scum right here, hiding in plain sight... but the meta here seems to be that MIA players are null/town, and focus on the hiders is apparently a HUGE scum tell. If he needs a replace, he needs a replace. If not, it's extremely suspicious to me that he has been hiding so long.

JohnnyFarrar (replaces ShadyHood) - I like what I have read so far. Not afraid to push, but not easily manipulated either. And I am not just saying that because he could hammer me if he wanted. Please catch-up and offer your input.

Kappy - Early on, I took kappy for a null/town who could be easily miss-lynched due to an immature play style. Since than inconsistencies pushed that read down, but I still don't think he is obvious scum. Maybe I am just hanging on to hope, because I sense that defending him is part of what brought a wagon to myself, I don't want to find out I was defending a scum.

Persivul - I've read him as town most of the game. I'd love to see his take on whats going on, not just on me.

Saved these for last, because they are sort of a special read IMO:

Mathblade (replaces Snork)- Here is a scenario. replaces into a scum slot, seeing a big wagon on town, hit the jackpot! He just had to hammer a few nails into my coffin, and he has a free town lynch without the nasty scummy look from pushing a wagon from scratch. Based on my thinking now, this is the most likely scum on my wagon. Also: 562 : LAMIST.

Wingback (replaces Sickofit1138)- I read sickofit a lot like I read kappy- a bit of an immature town player. With the replace in, and change of posting, I am reading this slot very differently. If mathblade is the scum on my wagon, this is the scum going for towncred by opposing the wagon. Of course, by saying this I might just push him to quickhammer me. I honestly hope I am wrong, I hope an actual town player is on my side here, but knowing I might get lynched in the near future I'd rather out this theory now rather than wait.

[karnos]

Kappy - Early on, I took kappy for a null/town who could be easily miss-lynched due to an immature play style. Since than inconsistencies pushed that read down, but I still don't think he is obvious scum. Maybe I am just hanging on to hope, because I sense that defending him is part of what brought a wagon to myself, I don't want to find out I was defending a scum.

Not going into all of your reads, but this one caught my eye. If I read your ISO I get a the following progression of your read:

1-239: slightly scummy
239-359: slightly townie
359-now: slightly scummy

Am I wrong?

@Saru: If you want a Karnos claim, you'll have to state intent to hammer it looks like or wait for someone else to state intent.

171 "Since my vote isn't doing anything as far as pressure thanks to Mizzy, and I don't expect to see another post from dierfire for awhile, I'll just try this.

VOTE: Kappy

We are past the RVS silliness, what are your serious reads now? Based on your read list, you rate sickofit and chumba as scummier, yet you are still voting persivul, any reason why?"

I wasn't reading him as scum, or "slightly scummy", I was voting him because of one specific action. This is where MechaGoomba comes out and calls me scum again, because town would *never* vote unless they think they caught a real scum. When kappy returned and changed vote I figured that settled things.

>Also, I don't see you defending kappy really anywhere? I saw you were discussing with Mecha about Kappy, but I didn't figure it was a defense..

I don't know what it was, TBH. Mecha was attacking me for my read of kappy, which was null/town. I figured Mecha thought kappy was scum and wanted me to support his view, and he got upset when I stuck to my points. I don't know anymore. Was it just a pointless filler exchange?

[karnos]

To me 112, 117, 198 read like you're scum reading him. Wrong?

Ehh. In your reads list you call kappy null/scum. So I thought you were on the opposite sides...

No, you are right about my reads list in 359 . Which makes Mecha's comments on my kappy read even more mind boggling to me, as I really felt like he was trying to push me to read kappy as more scummy. But before my reads list, I specifically posted a read of kappy as null/town.

112 - This was a post of mine explaining my unvote. If I thought kappy was obvious scum, I wouldn't have unvoted. Put 1&1 together and you can see that even back then I thought kappy was null at worst.

117 - what? Acting a bit silly and scummy doesn't mean scum. It just meant I didn't have any good leads. Kappy and Sickofit each had a bit of a wagon, and while they might have been deserving of that based on behavior, from experience in open 640 I figured it was a player play style issue, not necessarily indicative of a scum slot.

198 - Personal bias can be real. I was previously giving kappy benefit of the doubt, because I figured his odd voting and posting patterns could be explained by immature play style. When he actually voted me, it came across a lot more scummy, even though in retrospect it fit his previous pattern pretty closely. That carried over into my thinking when I did his full iso in 359, but since then I have adjusted my read of him.

[karnos]

I voted a player who I was currently reading as town

EXACTLY MY POINT!

I think we can reasonably assume that voting someone means that you think they're scum!
What's next, "I only said they were acting scummy, not that I thought they were scum; I actually believed they were town acting scummy the whole time"?
"I said I wanted them to be lynched, but I never said that I actually scumread them; I just didn't want them in the game"?

This is blatant semantics and I will have no part of it. TOWN DO NOT VOTE THEIR TOWNREADS. End of discussion.

I agree with you.

...

Btw, Karnos, you don't have me in your readslist.

Readlist: I know, it was intentional. I don't have a strong read on you. Your slot was absent for a long time before you replaced in, so I don't have a strong read for it prior to you either. However, see my read of wingback - the same logic *could* apply here, but you have been more subtle and less confident so I don't think it's nearly as likely that you could be a scum going for town cred.

The above quote from MechaGoomba reminded me strongly of this:

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p7950694

Oh I see, it was a clever ruse to get me to incriminate myself

You were just lying. Mmmm. Lots of lying, I see.

So Karnos, lets talk about more of your lying. You say I have not scumhunted anyone besides you. You stand behind that?

And also note:

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p7958364

" "if I think you are scum and I want to see if you do more scummy stuff, I might even lie to you in the thread" Note the words if and might, I wasn't saying that I had lied, and I wasn't even saying I will lie. Depending on how the game goes it might not be a useful tool, as it happens I may never have a reason to post a lie.

I said then, and still feel the same today, is that there are certainly times where lying as town is a great thing to do. Basically I could see exactly where GreyICE's argument was going, and rather than let it drag out and bog down the whole thread, I thought I could just save everyone some time by refuting his final point, which seemed to be that a lying player is a scum player. (That idea certainly didn't work out, but that is beside the point.)"

I hate the out of game meta arguments, but they have been used against me so much and upon reading your response to Mecha's post, I realized just how familiar it all sounded.

Yellow quote was from GreyICE, as scum. Orange quote was from me, town.

Of course if someone wants to argue that meta-game analysis is stupid and meaningless, I'd welcome that. The brunt of the attack on me is stupid meta-game analysis.

[karnos]

Even when about to be lynched, when you have your last chance to contribute to town, you're still so cautious!
You're not saying "These people are the scum, lynch them tomorrow." You're saying "OK, you asked for reads? Here are reads."
Above all, that's what I really don't like. When you have a chance to contribute, you equivocate, but you are willing to reiterate your flimsy defences as much as you need to.

WTF dude. Being at L-1 doesn't grant super-cop capability to detect all the scum. What I know comes from the reads I have made in the thread. 586 is my best guesses. If I just wanted to live, maybe I could stomach lying like you think I should and say X is obviously scum lynch them tomorrow, but I have to be honest. I don't know who is definite scum, best I can give are my reads and opinions. I don't want to be lynched, but I'm not going to insist on a lynch of someone I am not 100% sure about. Read 586- pick one of the suspected scum talk about it and lynch the right one. I can't tell you who is absolutely scum because I don't know.

[karnos]

He voted a fucking town read who the hell does that as town? Like what?

This. So much this.
...
I mean, "I voted the guy I was townreading as a reaction test" is up there with "Yeah I fakeclaimed a cop guilty, but I was really sure the guy was mafia."

Really? I find it really strange that you would say this.

He was reaction testing. He never scumread you: your contradiction just gave him a platform to reaction test.
Therefore, he never believed sloppiness was scummy. No contradiction exists.

(You could argue that this is deception and therefore scummy, but reaction testing like that is a well-known strategy for town, and, well, it worked here. He sorted you as town.)

Sound familiar at all? That was YOU. In 300 you indicated that deception, voting, & reaction testing is all kosher and well known town strategy. Now you are claiming town would never use it? WTF dude?

It's obvious what I missed, and I'm sorry to out you, but you are obviously a mason. There is no other way you could spew so much contrary BS without being scum-read by more players than me. I'm sorry I didn't see this earlier, but I am not sorry for outing you: you forced me into a corner and I am not going to let me lynch you because it's your fault that your mason game makes you look scummy as all hell. Obviously, deny, don't confirm the claim, but now that I know I realize why pushing and voting you made me look like scum. You are the one making the huge contradictory posts, not me. I've never said that town never lie, or town never vote town reads. I have been consistent and honest, you haven't.

[karnos]

Who retreats after someone says "actual town"? Not ready for claims/lynches on your top scum read is bullshit. If they aren't your top scumread anymore say so and who is. If you are unsure of who your top scumread is say that. But this is fucking sketch.

Combining that with the prior defeatist posts puts a big FoS on Dierfire especially the one quoted.

I believe we have caught scum in Karnos and now scum are scrambling to find any sort of lynch and revitalize it. Do not let that happen. We should be lynching Karnos today.

Is that really an argument? I was pretty sure you would double-down after my read of you as scum, but "actual town" is a scum tell?

There you go Mecha, there is the scum. Trying to pushing the lynch through on Father's day weekend when a lot of players won't even be around to chime in.

[karnos]

UNVOTE:

VOTE: MathBlade

Although, if I am actually wrong about MechaGoomba, I'd be voting him right back.

[karnos]

Also, I find it really strange that karnos has been going "you're scummy and terrible and we should lynch you for all these blatant contradictions" and such, and then as soon as MathBlade shows up and starts 1) voting for him and 2) not looking super town, karnos suddenly hypertownreads me with a flimsy mason explanation and then tries to get me to jump onto MathBlade. Not really seeing the read progression there.

You see that there are a bunch of people that seem to be buddying me, ignoring my "contradictory BS" and pushing my wagons. Their goal seems to be to get you lynched, and since (assuming you're town) you know you're town, this would be a mislynch.
Why would you ever assume "they're masons" and not "they're scum"?

PS: I'm not a mason.

I'm trying to understand how you think you are even making sense.

1- About an hour ago, you were complaining that I didn't assume you were scum.

2- And now you are complaining that the progression from thinking of you as scum to masons happened so fast.

So obviously you do realize I was originally working under the assumption you were scum. Your prior complaint is either a lie (which proves you are scum based on your own logic, lol) or you were deeply mistaken (it's not the first error you have made, either) which should be a warning call to anyone blindly sheeping your call to lynch me.

Now, you seem to be puzzled why I decided you are probably a mason. Let me enlighten you: while a scum team coordinating a blatant push on town is in the realm of possibility, it's very very unlikely because of the danger of making the buddying too obvious. Masons don't have the same worry. You and those who I would rather not name have been playing like you don't care about your buddying being noticed, so I have read you as a mason. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

In summary, you are either a very inconsistent lying player, or you make a lot of mistakes.

[karnos]

Wtf Karnos!

1) This is scum and needs to die.
2) Mecha may or may not be a mason I don't know but you sure as hell don't give any ideas to scum.
3) No matter what you claim I don't believe you and you're just making shit up to save your own ass.
4) Today has been OMGUS weekly. Scum are trying to start a counter wagon on me. Don't let them.
5) Karnos would not be a NK target because he is scummy as fuck.
6) "Actual town" This means Karnos thinks there is such a thing as "fake town".
7) I will post my arguments whenever I damn well please. I don't give a shit what day of the week it is. I play when I want and others play when they want. I want scum lynched today and you are not sneaking out of this.

You are just upset that you can't push over an easy miss-lynch before people have a chance to think things through. I wouldn't rush things too much if I were you: after I flip town, you will be next.

And yes, there is such thing as fake town. AKA scum, AKA you.

6- yes there is such a thing as fake town... it's AKA scum, aka YOU

[karnos]

@Mecha -- Assuming Karnos is scum, who do you think is scum with him?

I have the entire nightphase to figure such things out and so really don't want to waste time with preflip associatives

, but if I absolutely had to pick someone, I'd go with either Kappy or maybe Dierfire.

If I didn't think you were a mason, I'd say that sort of thinking comes from knowing how I flip already but you can't share reads based on me flipping town while you push for my lynch in the same breath.

[karnos]

Denying you are a mason is the correct thing to do. It doesn't mean you aren't a mason.

[karnos]

Too tired for this rn.

Just one question: Karnos, you basically confirmed that my thoughts about the way you voted Pers was accurate. Now here's my question: Why did you call it a fake vote? Because I can completely understand you getting paranoid of a townread that you were townreading in another game and in that other game said person flips scum. It happens. However, paranoia is not fake.
This has been bugging me since yesterday and I'm to tired to think rn.

I wasn't voting because I thought he was scum, I was voting because I was afraid he might be scum.

Unlike MechaGoomba, I do vote players who I don't think are scum. In my very first newbie game, I voted killthestory and put him at L-1 with my entry into the game, because my thinking was it'll either get some good information out of him, or scum will hammer and we can nail the scum. Of course that was very immature thinking, scum are extremely unlikely to hammer like that, but the basic thinking is something I still hold onto in my play today.

This is also why I sometimes vote "hiding" or inactive players, even thought it's NAI, in this game and in others. Essentially it's the same reason: I am not voting them because I have reason to think they are scum, but I vote them because I fear if they are scum, I won't ever find out. A non-hammering vote is a useful tool that can be used on a player of any alignment. It's how I play, and even if it gets my lynched this game, I don't think I will change, because I find it useful more often than not.

[karnos]

The counter case is a truckload of evidence to the contrary (even if Karnos tries to present it as a bunch of meta tells).

Is it really?

I voted kappy in RVS, and decided to unvote because I expected to be afk for extended length of time, and several players jumped on me for my choice of words. That is my great crime.

Then there is your meta analysis, which is all BS. You pick and choose specific posts to prove what you want, while ignoring posts that prove your theory to be worthless.

For example:

My read on him is not so much a meta read, but importantly the meta does reinforces it. Here are the overall main problems I have with him:

1

He is being very careful. I don't find this true in his town games.

2

He is very conscious about how what he writes looks. Also didn't find many examples in the meta.

3

His reads list is long and basically a whole bunch of nothing/null. It reminds me very much of my own read lists when I was scum the first time (I also felt that I should give a list as scum to look townie).

I'm so tired of this meta crap, but when it's being used as a major part of the case against me I guess my only choice to show how it's bullshit, one piece at a time.

Spoiler:

1 is BS.
I was accused of the exact same crap, being too careful and "too town" in newbie 1700.

RE: karnos (from game 1700, my second newbie game, AS TOWN)

He townplugs unnecessarily in the questionnaire responses. He has somewhat of an appeaser mentality when responding to questions. The RVS logic could stem from a newer mindset, but almost seems like scum setting themselves up early to dismiss low-velocity pressure vote wagons. Out of near everything I've read on these two surprisingly productive last two pages, Karnos pings me the most, Ghost a bit. Nothing else in particular thus far.

2 is absolutely true, in all my games. How is this AI?

3 is this unusual? My main experience with read lists is ranger's ever-present lists, where the majority of reads fall in the middle with a few strong town/scum reads. I was not super confident in any of my reads at the point where I wrote them out. I also find it annoying that I am attacked from both ends on this. You are complaining that my reads have to many null reads, while MechaGoomba complaints that I have more scum reads than the total number of scum in the game (even though I actually had 0 scum reads, only some null/scum reads). For the record, I don't think I posted any reads in either of my newbie games until day 2 or later. Posting full reads with reasoning is a new thing I decided to try this game, and TBH it didn't seem to have the payoffs I was hoping for. Maybe my reads will be taken more seriously after the flip.

Then, I uh... what exactly else did I do? Other than the meta complaints, many of which I have proven to be a lot of cherry-picking by offering counter examples, is there anything else? I'm trying to find out where these trucks full of evidence are hiding.

@Karnos: Stop the mason stuff, it's not helping town (it never was).

What do you mean "it never was"? Was someone else mason claiming earlier? I am fully aware that it's not pro-town to reveal a town power-role, but between that or lynching myself, I see it as the lesser of two evils. I'm not just going to ignore the obvious and go down without a fight.

[karnos]

Claim now please. Consider this an intent to hammer although I'm going to hold off on hammering until everyone's caught up and ready to go.

No. If you really want to hammer me now, that is on you. I already have my suspicions and it looks like getting lynched may even me inevitable, I'm fine with letting you quick-hammer me before I claim because it will make you look all the more guilty. Qubixes has already asked that my claim be ignored anyway.



To your question: my play has matured. I know that in the example I mentioned, basically just out of RVS, it's absurd to think scum will hammer. In the current state of this game, it's not completely absurd at all. There are enough players demanding my lynch that I think anyone could potentially get away with hammering me, as long as they can offer a little bit of reasonable doubt and show they they gave intent in some backwards way.

[karnos]

FYI to others: I will claim at L-1 with intent, that is not where I am. I'm not treating wingback's threat as intent because I am not currently at L-1.

[karnos]

I am fully aware that it's not pro-town to reveal a town power-role, but

between that or lynching myself

, I see it as the lesser of two evils. I'm not just going to ignore the obvious and go down without a fight.

How is this an either/or scenario?

Well, if I suspect someone of being a mason and then lie and don't out him, I am obviously scum. So I *had* to out him. /sarcasm

I'm not seeing myself alive much longer. If not from a lynch, I'll probably be dead tonight. I get lynched without trying, that is on me. But if I do try my all and still get lynched... well then it's on MechaGoomba, and those sheeping him. And I think my best chance of survival is to come clean with what I suspected, dancing around the issue and pretending I didn't have a realization about mecha's role just made me look like I was hiding something- since I was. Look at the whole attack on me- a lot of posts are based around my reads of kappy or persivul changing without explanation, so there was no fucking way I was going to try to make up some BS reason for changing my view on Mecha, I had to get out with the true answer, even if it might hurt town a little. Lynching me will hurt town more.


I'm a flavor cop. "

neapolitan

" is the role name. Probably makes me a tempting target to kill, which is why I really didn't want to claim.

Asking in advance: if there is a jailkeeper or doctor, please think of me tonight if MechaGoomba doesn't lynch me first.

[karnos]

Note: had to double check the rules, but I think it's fine to post this, paraphrasing.

When I investigate, I get a "vanilla" or "not vanilla" result.

My understanding is that a "vanilla" result guarantees the target is vanilla townie, there is no scum role that will give vanilla as a result, while a "not vanilla" result could be town power role or a scum.

[karnos]

No, I haven't.

[karnos]

Catching up, I'm curious to see how dierfire responds to the points brought up. Not sure how I stand on that, as I find dierfire's posting style hard to read, but it seemed to be largely town motivated prior to the odd unvote/revote.

I'd love to see some more input from Persivul, I think I understand his switch to Johnny but clarification would be nice.

MathBlade is still my top scumread, but his more recent posts seem to be more thoughtful, almost like he has had a change of heart... I think it's an act, he missed his easy lynch push on me and now he is trying to cover up his previous desperation with a different play style.

[karnos]

For the record, I'm willing to go either way. If you think scum might kill my target just to waste the investigation, I could just investigate the scummiest players, and if they aren't killed that is a bit of a tell on it's own. I could at least verify that they are or are not VTs. Of course, if I am investigating by direction then it becomes obvious what the result is if I don't find a VT.

I do have a target in mind currently, if I don't get any other suggestions.

OTOH, I think scum would most likely just kill me outright, and I'd rather be jailed and miss using my power than get killed, so there is that.

[karnos]

What makes you think there is a jail in this setup?

I don't know if there is one or not. Just based on what I know, a doctor or jailkeeper could keep me safe at night. A doctor targeting me would just be common sense, I hope, so I don't even mention it. A jailkeeper might be reluctant to target me because he doesn't want to block usage of my power, but that is why I am outright asking for it to target me- I'd rather be alive and blocked than dead.

But as far as your later response- I don't want any acknowledgement of this in the thread. If you are the jailer, or doctor for that matter, please just consider me for your night action, don't respond in thread, don't crumb, don't out yourself in any way.

[karnos]

Too many the huge wall posts lately. Can't anyone write a concise short point anymore?

We should be lynching Mathblade.

Mechagoomba, you asked me what my reads are when I was about to by lynched, but now nothing is being done with them. Look at Mathblade's iso, there is no slow logical progression. Two reading posts, and then a massive wall of text demanding my lynch followed by immediate vote to L-1 561 562 You can see how hastily the post was crafted because he calls Persivul vs Sickofit "TvT" while at the same time calling Wingback "probably scum" - this sloppy mistake shows he didn't really do the work, but rather was just desperate to get out a hit piece on me ASAP before the wagon lost momentum.

666 also strikes me as scum motivated, pushing for a lynch on Father's day when some players won't be able to check in.

His posts since my claim have just been focused on getting any other player lynched while keeping the idea that I am scum on top of everyone's mind. I get a sense that I'm being setup, like scum have a blocker or something, so they can push for my lynch tomorrow when I don't get a result.


A few updated reads:

Persivul: I still have a town sense from him, but it seems like he is posting less than in other games, that could be NAI though. prob town

MagnaofIllusion: My read of species was based largely on inactivity, and I am seeing a totally different side from the slot with a more active player in it. It almost feels like he is saying "karnos is scum but we can't lynch him due to the claim", setting things up to lynch me later, but to be fair that is probably just personal bias. null

Masquerade: Was mostly a null read, but the recent interactions with Mathblade moves him to a solid town read. My sense is that masq and mathblade couldn't be same alignment.

Mathblade: See above. I am in the minority here though, and I am will to switch votes to prevent a no-lynch, but would much prefer to just lynch mathblade. scum

JohnnyFarrar: I really don't see the scum read here, but maybe I'm being bias because he defended me to a degree. He can't keep using the "busy" excuse forever, especially as we approach the end of the game day. null/town

Wingback: I don't know anymore. If he was scum looking for towncred by stopping my wagon, he must have been tempted to actually hammer after my claim and he didn't, so that tempers my previous scum read. He could be scum playing the long con, but I'm finding it less likely at this point. null (not due to lack of indication, but due to conflicting indicators)

[karnos]

Mafia is a forums game based on READING. Reading isn’t a hardship.


So karnos – let’s talk about setting up positions to make it easy to justify later lynches and why this isn’t what you are doing with Johnny here …

Okay, lets be clear. I want to lynch mathblade, I think he is the most obvious scum.

However, I will vote Johnny if the need arises. This is a team game. While I like to think I have it all figured out, truthfully it's all a lot of guesswork and hunches. If the majority, including my main town reads, decide to lynch someone, I'll move my vote to help it happen. I'm not going to be stubborn and cause a no-lynch.

As to your first point above, the game is very much a writing game as much as it is a reading game. Sometimes a point that could be made in a couple sentences becomes a meandering page of text. Say more with less! I'm honestly not expecting any real change in this regard, it was mostly just an expression to share my feeling on the matter.

[karnos]

Okay, lets be clear. I want to lynch mathblade, I think he is the most obvious scum.

However, I will vote Johnny if the need arises. This is a team game. While I like to think I have it all figured out, truthfully it's all a lot of guesswork and hunches. If the majority, including my main town reads, decide to lynch someone, I'll move my vote to help it happen. I'm not going to be stubborn and cause a no-lynch.

Well then – why again is it something you intimate to be scummy behavior for me to have a reason not to pursue your lynch today (your claim) but still scum reading you and potentially looking to lynch you in future days but when you take a similar stance it is reasonable Town play. Seems to me to be a case of Cognitive Dissonance …

The two shouldn't be equated. My thought was that if you were scum trying to get me lynched, maybe scum have a roleblocker, or some other role to mess with my ability to investigate. I get a nagging feeling that the talk about lynching me tomorrow comes from knowing that I won't have investigation results because you already know I will be blocked somehow. Or, maybe it's because you know I will be nightkilled and it's a misdirect. It just feels off to me. I don't have a strong scum read otherwise, but it is what it is.

I was not trying to imply that simply having a FOS on me while voting someone else is a terrible thing. I just get this feeling while reading that maybe there is some detail to be read between the lines.

As far as my willingness to switch my vote, that isn't something that could be manipulated by some power-role or nightkill. If the mathblade lynch doesn't happen, my vote isn't going to help anything by sitting on him. I can either move it to a viable lynch, or I can be part of the problem and potentially leave us with a no-lynch. It's essentially out of my control.

[karnos]

As far as my willingness to switch my vote, that isn't something that could be manipulated by some power-role or nightkill. If the mathblade lynch doesn't happen, my vote isn't going to help anything by sitting on him. I can either move it to a viable lynch, or I can be part of the problem and potentially leave us with a no-lynch. It's essentially out of my control.

Eh how is that out of your control exactly?

Let me try this again:

Situation 1- Scum mess with my ability to investigate, my investigate fails, day 2 I have no results, it's used as fuel to push a lynch on me. The role block used to prevent my investigation is an ability known to exist in the game that scum could have access to.

Situation 2- Nobody else joins the mathblade wagon. I'm voting him, but it's not going to do anything. Even in the fantasy scenario where I am lying scum, it's still out of my control, as there is no power in the game that could potentially force multiple players to vote a certain wagon.

[karnos]

there is no power in the game that could potentially force multiple players to vote a certain wagon.

Force, no. Persuade? Convince? Yes.

Giving up on having your opinion be heard is possibly the worst thing you can do. People may be ignoring you now because they have predetermined you to be scum, but at the very least you should leave them with something to look back on after you (eventually) flip.

Yes, that goes without saying. You don't have to get a feeling that someone might try to persuade or convince because it's pretty much the entire game. That is the difference between the situations, and why I don't think they are equatable.

[karnos]

Since I haven't seen anyone else do it:

Intent to hammer.

I've said why in my last few posts, I won't let the day end with a no lynch.

[karnos]

@Karnos: We still have more than two days now.

I'm aware. I have the most time to read and post during the week, at work. After work today I probably won't be on the forums as often as I would like, so I am showing intent now.

But since you moved your vote, that makes it easier for me, I can just push him back to L-1 and leave the hammering to someone else.

VOTE: JohnnyFarrar

Note: don't take this to mean I am not willing to consider another lynch. I will still read the boards over the weekend, and I'm perfectly willing to move my vote if necessary.

[karnos]

Wow, I wasn't expecting that so quickly.

Lets hope for a scum flip!

Anyway, if anyone wants to shoot out an investigation suggestions I will take them into consideration, though I have a person in mind already.

[karnos]

I investigated persivul. No result. Either I got roleblocked, or persivul got jailed.

[karnos]

Guess I should do this:

VOTE: MathBlade

I'm even more confident about this now, since Wingback was the only other player I had a strong scum suspicion on. Anyone else find it a little hypocritical he is linking to other games to show meta and then at the end of his post he is saying we shouldn't use meta to find scum? 956

Firebringer has an odd stance, not sure I have seen a player flat-out refuse to read through the thread upon replacing in before. I find myself largely agreeing with his posts, maybe fresh perspective free of influences from the first 900 posts is a good thing? I thought his slot was town before he replaced in, so going to call this null/town for now.

re: neapolitan, I wanted to pick a target that I thought actually had a decent chance of being a VT, and that also wasn't making a lot of noise. Someone like masquerade fit into the first qualifier, but I had my fear that he might be killed or jailed at night. I figured persivul had been keeping such a low profile lately that it was unlikely for him to be killed or jailed, and I thought there was at least a fair chance of him being a VT.

Since there was a kill last night, I'm guessing scum have a role blocker.

[karnos]

Why is someone being Jailed a part of this reasoning? Jailkeepers don’t prevent investigation roles from working on their targets. A Rolestopper? Sure that makes sense. But Jailkeeper doesn’t.

Huh. Apparently I was playing the role in a nonstandard way at the previous site I played on, I never realized before now that you can still investigate someone "in jail".

My job was killing me today, haven't had any time to post. I did try to read the thread throughout the day when I had breaks, but I didn't see much to comment on at first glance. MathBlade is still making a lot of noise, nothing new there.

Kappy's been MIA for the last two days, due for a prod I think?

I have a 2-year-old asking me questions about paw patrol every 5 minutes so I can't really focus enough to re-read thoroughly now, I'll try to make some more notable contribution later tonight.

[karnos]

Noticed something in my re-read, something that stood out and is a bit more interesting to me than the constant noise from Mathblade.

Masquerade has been someone I have avoided looking at too closely. Admittedly, I thought he might be scum in the same way I thought Wingback might be scum, but I'd just be reiterating the same argument, scum trying to buddy up to town pre-flip to build cred. At the time when I was at L-2 to L-1, I felt my situation was pretty delicate, and I didn't want to kick the hornets nest so to speak, and cause him to turn on me and hammer me before I could claim and have some discussion. (I came out against Wingback as potential scum, but I almost immediately regret that decision because I realized if he was indeed scum he could quickly counter my argument by simply lynching me. ) This was compounded with the fact that it was just a thought of a possibility, not a serious feeling that he was scum, and I wanted to remain focused on what I thought was the most obvious scum in the game at the time, Mathblade.

The recent trend of multiple huge wall posts every day by Mathblade distracted me for a time, and didn't even think about bringing Masquerades buddying as a scum tell, but upon my last re-read I noticed something odd about this post:

Only experience I have with him is a multiball where we were on opposing scumteams. My buddy was lynched D1, I killed Karnos' buddy N1, town lynched me D2, and then I think they lynched Karnos D4. So I wouldn't call him a bad player, but I don't think he'll be making very complex plans.

The game in question:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... &start=975

I wasn't lynched D4. Certainly not trying to brag, really it came down to a coin-flip decision, but I went to endgame and won as scum. Why is Masquerade downplaying my scum game? I just can't fathom a reason. Yet he was there, posting in the game thread after it was all over, I just don't see how him being unaware that the game ended with a scum win.

Masquerade, whats your deal?

VOTE: Masquerade

[karnos]

To be clear, Mathblade is still scum. I'll revote him upon request. What I noticed from masquerade demands a vote.

[karnos]

Oh really? Then I remembered it wrong that's so stupid lol.
But do you really think that's alignment indicative?

I am not sure. But if it was important enough to bring it up in a post, my thinking is it would be important enough to click the "view your posts" link and take 10 seconds to read the game ending. You also posted something about being lazy. Is the error due to laziness, or is the error intentional and the lazy comment was to allow for plausible deniability if your error was realized.

I just don't know, I want to get some other opinions on the situation.

[karnos]

You were townreading Masq for quite a while. In 809 you said you were convinced Math and Masq couldn't be coaligned (which I disagree with, but that's for later). You've said you still think Math is scum. You only noticed this during a reread, and the primary thing you pointed out was not the buddying but the misstatement of what happened in your game, making it seem like the misstatement made you go back and look at Masq, and it was then that you saw the buddying.

In summary, it looks like you jumped to conclusions by assuming that the error must have been intentional, and ended up confbiasing off of it.

You aren't wrong about one thing, I did think Masq was likely town based on Mathblade being scum, and I do still think MathBlade is scum. But I try to be realistic, my scum reads aren't actually going to flip scum 100% of the time, and my scum reads aren't going anywhere without support from other town. I'm trying to avoid tunneling, and this particular comment from Masq really stuck out to me.

I disagree on your summary, this is about the opposite of confirmation bias. Confirmation bias would be ignoring anything that doesn't support my preexisting "MathBlade is scum" argument.

[karnos]

I;ve been going over Magna's iso and what stands out to me is him wanting Karnos to out his reads. But then I think, that actually might be a good idea because it forces scum to kill conftowns. But Magna wants Karnos to claim every day while it's not a good idea to claim not vanilla because scum will know whether they are scum.


UNVOTE:

I agree with above. I intend to announce when I find a VT, or when I get no result, but if I get a "not-vanilla" result I'm not going to mention who I investigated.

Masq, as far as the drama earlier don't worry about it. I thought your error was a bit telling, but apparently nobody else cares enough to even comment on it, perhaps I was overreacting. In the end, it's just a game.

[karnos]

Two things I realized while reading the last few pages. MathBlade isn't a "he". Sorry about that. And Firebringer is the dragon from HTTYD, I thought his avatar was a pokemon at first. Oops.

Masq, as far as the drama earlier don't worry about it. I thought your error was a bit telling, but apparently nobody else cares enough to even comment on it, perhaps I was overreacting. In the end, it's just a game.

Explain again how Masq forgetting the specifics about how a game ended is alignment indicative again?

If

he forgot, it's not NAI. I thought he might be intentionally misleading to somehow make me look better, sort of a roundabout way of buddying. I don't know, it just seemed weird. That said, I brought it up and nobody else thinks it's indicative of anything, maybe a cigar is just a cigar.

VOTE: Mathblade

Still thinking this is the most likely scum.

[karnos]

So he's now scumreading both Math and me while Math just had this push on me and not a word about that. What was it Karnos? Was Math bussing me there? Was I bussing Math yesterday? It just really looks like he isn't trying, I can't not agree with Math about this anymore.

Yeah, I'm going there.
VOTE: Karnos

More rereads to come soon. Kinda tired now, might try another one before bed but it's already pretty late so not likely.

"my scum reads aren't actually going to flip scum 100% of the time"

I meant that. I'd be ecstatic if I could predict scum with 60% accuracy. Given the design of most mafia games, 60% accuracy for town would be a guaranteed win for them. Even 50% read accuracy is enough to win the majority of times. Now, if you look at the overall statistics of the games here on mafiascum, I think you will find town doesn't win the overwhelming majority of the time. The sad reality is that most town players predict scum with 30-40% accuracy

at best

, resulting in some town wins mixed with some scum wins.

I always keep that in mind when reading players, which is why I am not going to give you a free town read just because I have a scum read on someone opposing you in the thread. As sure as I am about MathBlade, I know that my overall success at predicting scum is probably worse than 50%, so there is still a fair chance I am wrong. And if I am wrong about that, you can certainly be scum.

>Why would anyone lie about something that's so easy to check?

That is the thing. I did check, and if I ignored the discrepancy once I noticed it I would be essentially repeating your lie. I have a responsibility to the rest of the town players to point out a contradictory statement such as the one you made. Judgement, as to whether or not it means anything, I can't say. I thought it might mean something. My sole vote sitting on you wasn't going to get you lynched and nobody else seemed to care, so perhaps I was wrong.

But now you brought the issue back up, it's almost like you wanted me to tacitly "lie" by accepting your false statement without calling you out on it. Why would

I

lie about it, given that I knew the results of the game? Why would I withhold that information to the rest of the players? I just don't understand your thinking.

[karnos]

Oh for crying out loud, I reread that post like a dozen times to make sure I got that right :/

Ok, dude, Mecha, we started with 13 players. It's perfectly possible to be multiball. Why would there be an uneven number of scum?

But in 1197 you were sure that I was in error by suspecting two diametrically opposed players as both scum.

Another one of those weird inconsistencies. It seems you assumed it couldn't possibly be multiball back in 1197 and now suddenly you are sure it is a possibility?

I do find it interesting that mecha seems to be positive there are 3 scum, he indicated that earlier in the game and I pointed it out and apparently nobody thought it was a notable statement then either. Is there some basic formula rule of normal games that makes 4 scum an impossibility?

[karnos]

Me too, possibly won't be able to post today at all, family stuff for the 4th, though I might get some time late in the evening.

I

will

be able to catch-up and post tomorrow morning before day deadline. I generally have more time to play during the work week, and the holiday has made this weekend especially busy.

[karnos]

Wow, brain fart there, I copy/pasted my message from another game. Ignore the thing about day deadline, I know it's not even close.

[karnos]

I return.

I see that I'm at L-1 with hammer intent from Titus.
I claim VT.

I'm working on catching up now.

This is the most robotic sounding post I have ever read.

[karnos]

@Dwelee Dierfire is scum and is at L-1. There are four days left so let's take the time for you to get reads Dwlee

So, I could be wrong on MathBlade, or they could be bussing, so a scum flip isn't totally out of the question.

But... can we agree that if Dierfire flips town MathBlade is scum?

I think it's almost worth hammering DF if it'll finally give some support to the scum!MathBlade theory.

[karnos]

@Karnos: why can't they be both town?

My top scum read could be town, sure, but to get anything done in this game you need to take the best option you have. I can't just play passive assuming I am wrong about all my reads, that doesn't do us any good at all.

From my POV, MathBlade is the most obvious scum in the game, and looking at the recent posts from them I just see that being reinforced.

[karnos]

I don't like his posting style, it feels robotic and rehearsed, like he isn't having a conversation, but instead he is writing a essay for school.

That said, I don't see the scum motivations. MathBlade is scum (most likely). Bussing is a possibility, but the simplest most logical explanation is that dierfire is town. So yes, I think dierfire will flip town. I am not voting him, or showing intent to hammer- I think it's a mistake to hammer dierfire now.

I can't say I won't ever hammer him- come 5 hours to deadline with no other viable lynch and my thought processes may change. But we still have time now to turn this around. Lynch MathBlade!

VOTE: MathBlade

[karnos]

The main thing is he wants to save Dierfire. It is so obvious to me it is ridiculous.
Seriously it has to be Dierfire/Masquerade/Karnos.

Pure insanity. I see what you are going for, I'm just not positive which way it is.

Scum!dierfire, getting bused, so you want to set things up so you can turn the lynch to me tomorrow.
or
Town!dierfire, getting lynched, so you can claim I was acting from a scum PoV knowing dierfire was town.

F that. I'll hammer if I must just to prove you are full of it.

[karnos]

Can't risk it.

VOTE: Dierfire

I hope this is a bus.

[karnos]

@Karnos: Risk what?

A bus.

My town read on dierfire was largely based on MathBlade being scum and pushing the lynch on him. After the last exchange, I'm wondering if it's actually a bus in which case I'd be setup perfectly to be lynched tomorrow after dierfire flips scum.

The lynch seemed inevitable, so holding back and looking guilty as hell in case of a scum flip wasn't worth the risk.

If he does flip town, well at least my instincts were right, but we already had a claim, and we already had intent. The lynch was going to happen whether I hammered or not.

[karnos]

God two bad hammers in a row. Dank maymay

What? How do you know it's a bad hammer when we haven't even seen the flip yet? And if you are so sure he is town, WTF did you give intent to hammer?

[karnos]

@Karnos @Qubixes
What are your reads looking like?

I don't want to give much detail on my reads because it might give scum a clue as to who I am going to investigate.

If I get killed at night, please just lynch MathBlade and get it over with.

Dwlee: might be scum, not enough posting to say so far. Jury is out.

Qubixes: as much as I disagree with his ideas, I think they are town. Probably.

[karnos]

@Karnos: Risk what?

A bus.

My town read on dierfire was largely based on MathBlade being scum and pushing the lynch on him. After the last exchange, I'm wondering if it's actually a bus in which case I'd be setup perfectly to be lynched tomorrow after dierfire flips scum.

The lynch seemed inevitable, so holding back and looking guilty as hell in case of a scum flip wasn't worth the risk.

If he does flip town, well at least my instincts were right, but we already had a claim, and we already had intent. The lynch was going to happen whether I hammered or not.

But how does a hammer help you in that case? Do you think it makes you look less likely to be scum if Dier flips scum? You said you were trying to hammer him to prove him wrong, right? ("prove you are full of it") It's like you're trying to say that MathBlade is bussing Dier, but hammering him somehow proves that it was not you that was bussing..

This is what I was responding to:

The main thing is he wants to save Dierfire. It is so obvious to me it is ridiculous.

If not hammering somehow proves I am trying to save a scum dierfire, what would prove that wrong?

[karnos]

Sorry but not sorry about hammering. It was going to happen whether I did it or not, and I felt like I had to prove something about MathBlade.

VOTE: MathBlade

OTOH, I was not roleblocked last night.

Masquerade is confirmed Vanilla Townie.

[karnos]

This post:

The main thing is he wants to save Dierfire. It is so obvious to me it is ridiculous.
Seriously it has to be Dierfire/Masquerade/Karnos.

I force Masquerade to take a stand on Dierfire so they vote them in a pinch.
Then Karnos comes in and says "ooooh look at this shiny. Don't you want it more?"

So blatantly bad it makes my skin crawl.

MathBlade essentially blackmailed me into hammering. If I didn't hammer, and dierfire flipped scum, it's pretty obvious how MathBlade could turn that into a lynch on me the following day. In hindsight, knowing dierfire is town, I suspect scum MathBlade was just trying to push me to hammer a townie, but that can't be helped today.

[karnos]

MathBlade essentially blackmailed me into hammering. If I didn't hammer, and dierfire flipped scum, it's pretty obvious how MathBlade could turn that into a lynch on me the following day. In hindsight, knowing dierfire is town, I suspect scum MathBlade was just trying to push me to hammer a townie, but that can't be helped today.

So you are saying you hammered a Town player (I'm not clear on whether you actually suspected Dier or not) because you thought Mathblade was bussing and if you didn't hammer you'd be lynched today with a scum flip?

Why would Math push a counter-wagon to herself (scum in your scenario) on a partner?

I feel like this has been asked and answered already.

My hammer was a reaction to MathBlade's post. Before that post, I was reading dierfire as town, which is why I didn't want to get involved in the wagon. MathBlade posted the accusation that I was trying to save scum!dierfire, right around the same time Titus & Dwlee both posted intent to hammer.

I got worried that I made a mistake. Yes, I thought it could be a bus, and I didn't want to take the risk that it was by refusing the lynch myself. In my mind I had to act quickly: if I didn't dwlee or titus would have hammered, and MathBlade would easily turn to lynch me on the following day "see look karnos refused to lynch his scum buddy dierfire".

I feel dumb now, because at this point it's obvious it was just a ploy to push me to hammer a townie.

[karnos]

I'm trying to re-read with fresh eyes to make sure I am not tunneling too much. On the assumption that MathBlade is town, who would be scum?

If MathBlade is town, there was a clear opportunity for scum to hammer yesterday while he was L-1.

karnos

,

Saru

,

Magna

, &

Masq

were on the wagon. I personally know two of those are town, so that implies a couple things. At 1426 Masq puts MathBlade at L-1. At 1435 Magna unvotes, putting MathBlade at L-2. 12:26pm to 2:06pm on July 12th.

The only active poster during that period who wasn't already on the wagon was Titus. So scum Titus could have easily hammered town and pushed us into lylo. If MathBlade is town, Titus probably is town as well. OTOH, who was absent from the thread during that period, and could still be scum?

Dwlee, Firebringer, Mecha. Potentially Magna & Saru could be scum already on the wagon.

Another thing I noticed: Mecha was voting Titus prior to this occurrence. Mecha has also been reading MathBlade as town. But as above shows, Town!MathBlade strongly implies that Titus is also town. The obvious implication being that there is no reason for town!Mecha to vote Titus while he is reading MathBlade as town. I'm just trying to figure out if town!Mecha realized his error, or if scum!Mecha realized the flaw in his reads.

If Mecha is indeed town, that leaves the scum pool as Dwlee, Firebringer, Magna, Saru. Assuming we still have a misslynch before lylo, we could simply lynch the entire pool and win. But this is all riding on the theory that MathBlade is town, which I'm absolutely not ready to commit to.

[karnos]

1436 Dwlee enters the thread, the post after Magna's unvote. I don't like his post for obvious reasons. It also seems very out of place- nobody mentioned lynching a cop or lynching me on that page. Now, out of a hundred possible worlds maybe town!Dwlee got confused and made that post without quoting whatever he was really responding to, but I think it's much more likely a frustrated scum post.

He came into the thread and realized if he was a couple hours sooner he could have hammered MathBlade and pushed the game into LYLO.

This was followed up by a 1438 in which he says "My thoughts on the game rn are mainly math blade town." Why come in just as the wagon is dissolving to say that? It just seems weird to me, why wasn't he posting earlier when math was actually at L-1?

I also find it interesting how he suddenly became very active while apparently on V/LA.

[karnos]

Another: 1504 Dwlee says MathBlade is town, but Titus and I are scum.

As I showed above, scum!Titus could have hammered town!MathBlade. Dwlee's logic doesn't make sense. I am not convinced MathBlade is town, but if she is Titus can't be scum.

[karnos]

I don't know, but why would Persivul replace out as scum? I kinda see his replace out as frustrated town that just doesn't want to deal anymore.

In open 640 Persivul directly asked the mod to replace another player or he would replace himself out. In that game, Persivul was scum. So there is clear precedent for the idea that Persivul would replace as scum, the answer is a resounding YES.

Because I tell you right now, I see no reason for Math to tunnel a universal townread to the point where everyone scumreads Math for it when they could just NK karnos.

I was assuming that scum avoided killing me because they thought they could get me lynched, or because they had a roleblocker (though my successful result last night disproved that theory). So I wouldn't say my survival proves anyone's innocence on it's own.

Thoughts on Dwlee/Pers, Saru?

Feel his slot was/is scummy. The timing of your vote on him makes me feel he might just be town. I didn't really take his jump from 1353 to 1356 to be scummy. Seemed consistent with a replacement's thought process. His frustration town read of MathBlade makes sense coming from a replacement as well. His recent posting has me scratching my head, he might want to explain that when/if he comes back. And he also might want to read up. Overall, the slot read is scummy but the person in the slot hasn't been all that scummy. Not my biggest priority in terms of a lynch.

So Saru, you also think Titus is scum but Math is town? Why do you think scum!Titus would pass up a free chance to hammer MathBlade? I just don't buy it. I think you are being naive, or maybe I've been reading you wrong all game.

VOTE: Dwlee99

Dwlee at L-1.

I think this is the best choice of course whether Math is scum or not. Reading through Math's iso, I see little direct confrontation with the persivul slot, and what does exist is largely disagreement about persivul not voting me, and interestingly Math always seemed to read persivul as "obv town", same as Mecha.

Anyone looking at Dwlee's iso can see how he is creating fake excuses and then ignoring them when they don't work out. 1353 Dwlee

"the karnos dierfire associative tells are real af"

obviously implying I am scum with dierfire. After that, I hammered dierfire, and 1356

"I think you might actually be town from how stupid that was."

then 1436

"I agree with lynching cop day before lylo"

1438 a lot of stuff, weird train of thought post, including this piece

"I think if the hammer was scum that means Titus is scum because I remember very clearly in cyberpunk where Titus wanted me to derp hammer diamondsentinel with a sheep vote so I can see her directing that her as well."

and then finally 1482

"Karnos makes sense with titus, math."

It just does not sound like logical progression from a town player. He is implying I'm scum with dierfire, then (pre-flip) he calls me town for making a dumb hammer, and then post-flip shows dierfire to be town, suddenly he doesn't care about associations anymore and I must still be scum, as he suggests "lynching cop". Then he explains his thoughts, which include a gem about how if the hammer was scum, that would make titus scum- great logic, except the hammer isn't scum. And of course there is the note I made above, that Scum!Titus had the perfect opportunity to hammer MathBlade and didn't.

So, Dwlee is scum, I don't see another explanation. I'm torn on MathBlade. There is room for him to be Dwlee's scum partner, or potentially town. If Math hammers here, it doesn't mean she is town.

[karnos]

WHAT

[karnos]

Incredible game. I was doomed on day 1 before MathBlade replaced in, the mutual bus strategy turned out to be a lifesaver. Neapolitan scum role was handy.

I like how the setup had a lot of unusual power roles. Funny how it turned out Mecha *was* a mason... just not at the time I thought he was one.

[karnos]

Thanks for running the game.

Do normal setups ever get re-used, or turned into open setups?