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Post #839 (isolation #1) » Sat Apr 08, 2017 9:34 am
Postby BlackVoid »
I caught up on stuff that happened since I replaced in. nancy's moves so far have been really suboptimal if she's town. It's possible she claimed 1-shot BP as scum to bait a doc claim.
If that's the case, the doc counterclaiming at this point is actually the best idea.
Then we lynch nancy, the doc is nightkilled. Since there is no roleblocker and only one scum would be left, whoever I track tonight will be cleared. So, even if we mislynch D2 and I get killed N2, there will be a tracker clear on D3. I don't want to risk lynching nancy if she's actually a 1-shot BP and the value of keeping a doc hidden at this point isn't much higher than just counterclaiming.
If you are town, please don't fake-claim
(I don't know why this needs to be said but it's been happening so often in recent games I've played or modded in).
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Post #845 (isolation #2) » Sat Apr 08, 2017 10:01 am
Postby BlackVoid »
In post 843, Drixx wrote:Stopping a night kill and THEN doing the trade would be much more powerful.
Actually it wouldn't. If the doc keeps their role hidden, the D1 lynch could be anyone and D1 lynches usually hit town. The doc save means nothing since it just gets the game to evens and we have to no lynch to get it back to odds.
On the other hand, if the doc cc's, we have a guaranteed scum lynch D1 and we can make an informed D2 lynch while using associative tells from nancy to clear town or catch the remaining scum. Tl;dr, not cc'ing now merely shifts the auto-lynch from D1 to D2 and an actual concensus lynch from D2 to D1. But I'd rather have a concensus lynch later in the game when we have more info and flips. I'm not sure I'm phrasing it right. Does that make sense?
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Post #847 (isolation #3) » Sat Apr 08, 2017 11:28 am
Postby BlackVoid »
Well, my biggest suspicion right now is your slot due to Pine so I'm taking what you say with a grain of salt.
I can't be the only one who finds this entire wall fake as hell. I'm hoping to catch up really quickly so I can get a better understanding of the gamestate but would like everyone's opinion on Pine/Drixx so I can engage when I catch up. I have about three hours now, then I leave for work for an evening shift and hopefully when I come back at midnight PST, I can catch up some more.
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Post #848 (isolation #4) » Sat Apr 08, 2017 11:31 am
Postby BlackVoid »
To elaborate somewhat - that wall of Pine's seems designed to get him into nancy's good books (which would imply nancy-town). He just takes it for granted that nancy is town, laying some sort of trap and scumreads people for "falling into her trap" and "reacting to her push like caught scum." It feels really simplistic and not like he's trying to understand other's perspective. More like he's telling nancy what she wants to hear.
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Post #856 (isolation #5) » Sat Apr 08, 2017 12:02 pm
Postby BlackVoid »
I looked at the setup again and knowing I'm a tracker, I know there absolutely has to be a 1-shot BP or a doc in the game. If there is, then counterclaim and we lynch nancy. If not, then nancy is confirmed town.
@nancy, when you finish catching up, let's talk about Pine's slot/Drixx. That's the only slot I feel comfortable voting. No idea who the partner is but I'm doing some heavy skimming since time is limited.
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Post #860 (isolation #6) » Sat Apr 08, 2017 12:22 pm
Postby BlackVoid »
VOTE: Drixx
I have townreads on Loopdan and TesXX as well. Unsure on the rest of the playerlist. Chronicle might be town but his play is radically different from a recent towngame that I was backup modding (Micro 695) so I'm not ready to slot him as town just yet.
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Post #865 (isolation #8) » Sat Apr 08, 2017 12:58 pm
Postby BlackVoid »
In post 863, nancy wrote:I'll follow you on Drixx but talk to me about the rest of your reads first? Chronicle especially. I don't want to go to Night any earlier than we have to and I'd love to digest with you as much as possible before then.
Okay, so here's Chronicle's ISO in Micro 695. A quick summary of the context - it was a nightless setup where if there was a town lynch D1, scum need to kill one of their own. And if there was a scum lynch D1, scum can nightkill a town but it goes into white flag. Chronicle put a townie at L-1 and a scum quickhammered. He admitted to screwing up and seemed mostly unsure about his reads and where to push. While he had gut scumreads, he had a very uncertain tone and generally just confused about the game.
His play here didn't strike me that way at all. He confidently pushes both you and StealthyNoodle for voting a lurker. He has coherent reasoning that I can follow easily and backs up his push well. Normally that's towny which is why I leaned town on him. But his play being so different from his towngame made me wonder if his higher level of confidence came from knowing everyone's alignment. So, I'm undecided on him overall.
See previous post for Chronicle. I townread TesXX for being so insistent that we follow optimal strategy and have everyone claim 1-shot BP, then tracker. I see that he has garnered a few scumreads for "talking about the setup over actually scumhunting" but I disagree. I think he was so keen to get everyone to follow the plan because he knew it was optimal for town and he wanted to win. There was also a lot of disagreement over it and nancy and some others refused to follow it. So, of course he's going to dig in and defend his views on the setup. I also think as scum, he might want to hang back and see what town does as opposed to stubbornly demand that everyone follows the most optimal, pro-town strategy. TesXX was scum in the Chronicle-towngame I linked earlier and his play there supports my theory that he'd blend into the background if he were scum.
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Post #872 (isolation #10) » Sat Apr 08, 2017 1:09 pm
Postby BlackVoid »
In post 866, nancy wrote:it looks like they are actually more experienced than I thought
That's interesting! I got the same impression midway through reading their posts and that's the point where I started to wonder if Chronicle was better than they were letting on and is part of why I went and read the other game.
As far as StealthyNoodle is concerned, I found a lot of his posts to be awkward but the way he went about trying to dismantle Pine's wall case on him felt like town that thought scum was making a bullshit push on them and was determined to push back.
In post 838, StealthyNoodle wrote:If someone survives the night, it means we have a doc. Not sure if scum are allowed to not vote, but to do so would for certain be a risk. They'd let a player stay alive, on the assumption we'll end up lynching nancy.
This post is super contradictory. First you say that if someone survives the night (presumably you mean if no kill happens?), then it means we have doctor ... which is not at all a sound conclusion. Then you express the idea that scum would not kill in order to frame Nancy.
Like ... you basically just scum claimed and cleared Nancy with this post.
This post? I'm not really sure what StealthyNoodle is trying to say but I don't see how it's a scumclaim. Yeah, it's contradictory and his assumption that if there's no kill, that means we have a doc isn't sound. But he seems to be a newbie and I don't get why him making unsound conclusions is tantamount to a scum claim.
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Post #878 (isolation #12) » Sat Apr 08, 2017 1:29 pm
Postby BlackVoid »
In post 838, StealthyNoodle wrote:If someone survives the night, it means we have a doc. Not sure if scum are allowed to not vote, but to do so would for certain be a risk. They'd let a player stay alive, on the assumption we'll end up lynching nancy.
From context, I think he's saying that if there's no kill tonight, it means there's a doc who saved the kill which means that you (nancy) are scum. Because if you were town, I'll be dead tonight. But he's also wondering about the possibility of scum no-killing just to frame a town-nancy. What's contradictory or scummy about it?
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Post #879 (isolation #13) » Sat Apr 08, 2017 1:30 pm
Postby BlackVoid »
In post 877, nancy wrote:Void if Drixx is Town then where do we look?
I don't have any other scumreads right now which is part of the reason I only feel comfortable voting Drixx. But if he's town, I'll have to re-read the whole game.
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Post #951 (isolation #15) » Sun Apr 09, 2017 5:18 am
Postby BlackVoid »
I mentioned I wanted to look at WhyMafia and Screenplay more in-depth. I went through WhyMafia's ISO and I could see him being a potential Pine partner. At first, he questions townreads on Pine saying that all he did was defend nancy (implicitly creating a false Pine-nancy association). But once there are votes on Pine, he immediately switches to defending him in 299 preferring to lynch a more active player. He continues this line of reasoning in 463. But in 801, he's fine lynching TesXX for "lurking." That's pretty inconsistent. If Drixx flips scum, I'd look at WhyMafia as a partner. A few other points: I think this has been mentioned already but I didn't like him asking people who they would protect if they were the doc. He could easily have asked what their reads were. The "lynch me" post and subsequent reasoning didn't feel genuine either because he knew scum wouldn't ask to be lynched and is basically arguing that his "lynch me" request makes him town so it seems like that's why he did it.
@WhyMafia, can you please post your read on Pine/Drixx? You keep defending that slot but you haven't ever given a solid reason why you are townreading them.
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Post #961 (isolation #18) » Sun Apr 09, 2017 12:48 pm
Postby BlackVoid »
I almost forgot that this was a newbie game, maybe I should elaborate: if doc counterclaims nancy today, we'll have lynched scum D1. They will get killed N1. I will track someone N1 and since there is only one scum left and no roleblocker, we either win outright if I track the scum to a kill or we enter D2 with two confirmed townies (me and the person I tracked). That's seven alive, two conf-town, one scum. That's a very advantageous situation for town. If anyone counterclaims tomorrow, I'm lynching the counterclaimer first.
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Post #1014 (isolation #20) » Sun Apr 09, 2017 9:28 pm
Postby BlackVoid »
In post 1004, nancy wrote:Like Void this Drixx lynch just feels full of conf!bias, we've established that Chronicle looks ugly tonally and Loopdan has been a scummy lurksack all game without attracting any real pressure. I want to lynch either Chronicle or Loopdan here. Src as a compromise.
Pedit three? And don't be simplistic.
Yeah, I was starting to worry it was too easy but Pine's posts have still been the single most scummy thing I've read this game. I'm free all day tomorrow so I'm going to give this game a good re-read from start to finish and post a list of my reads in the morning/afternoon and I'd be happy to hear what you think of them.
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Post #1015 (isolation #21) » Sun Apr 09, 2017 9:31 pm
Postby BlackVoid »
In post 1013, nancy wrote:Btw Void what do you think about Noodle's tonal shift over the past several pages or so?
What tonal shift? As far as his vote on Drixx goes, he spent a lot of time walling against Pine and pushing him so it's not surprising he'd jump at the opportunity to lynch the slot if he's town.
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Post #1099 (isolation #22) » Mon Apr 10, 2017 10:39 am
Postby BlackVoid »
I'm caught up since where I last left off but reading is taking longer than expected so I'll just leave thoughts off the top of my head.
@nancy, Loopdan is actually one of my stronger townreads. Him saying that you should be replaced out may not have been particularly nice but wanting people to either play to win or replace out is something I can easily see coming from town. Personally, I'm more of a "play-to-win" type as well. I think the best way to teach newbies how to play is to give it your best shot at winning and not treating them with kid gloves. I would have supported the BP-claim strategy if I were in the game because I see it as optimal.
Him trying to get you and Pine to read each other also felt town motivated to me because observing how two people who are friends interact with each other is pretty good way to get reads. For example, when I was reading Pine's posts to you, it felt like he was going out of his way to appease you so I concluded that he was likely scum and you were likely town. I didn't agree with Loopdan's conclusion that you were both scum but I could see his "sorting you two through how you talk to each other" a good approach for him to take.
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Post #1100 (isolation #23) » Mon Apr 10, 2017 10:44 am
Postby BlackVoid »
I also feel that Drixx is not investing himself in the game so as to give the least amount of associative tells after he's lynched. The primary reason he's getting lynched is Pine's posts so he could very well have thought that there wasn't much he could do and it wasn't really his "fault" for replacing into a doomed scumslot.
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Post #1126 (isolation #24) » Mon Apr 10, 2017 11:19 am
Postby BlackVoid »
Can someone link me to past Pine-IC games? There's something I want to check but I'm skim-reading really fast before deadline so don't want to go looking for them.
In post 1126, BlackVoid wrote:Can someone link me to past Pine-IC games? There's something I want to check but I'm skim-reading really fast before deadline so don't want to go looking for them.
There's one at least. I don't think meta is going to that helpful here, though, because he seems to have consciously changed his approach to ICing and moreover has been totally inactive this game.
Basically, I wanted to see if he spent a lot of the early-game fluff-posting and offering IC advice because that's the impression I got from his early game here. 67 - Pine is not sure whether the BP claiming is optimal or not but claims anyway. Slight scumpoints for trying to blend in with the town and not checking first to see whether it was optimal. 81 feels a bit premature and fabricated. "Yup, scum are attacking nancy" is a weird thing for town to say this early. Scanning his town-IC-ISO, he has more content but he also does spend a lot of time fluffing so it's inconclusive. I didn't get the same pings from reading his ISO as I got here though regarding buddying.
I was unaware mentioning emotions was scummy. I'll keep that in mind.
So of all the people who posted you think I'm scummy bc I was referring to a comment made about my skill?
This post stuck out to me on a re-read. Quoting this because it's important. The bolded part comes from a newb-mafia perspective. He's trying to figure out what is scummy and making sure to avoid doing them in the future.
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Post #1161 (isolation #29) » Mon Apr 10, 2017 1:00 pm
Postby BlackVoid »
In post 1156, WhyMafia wrote:Not necessarily. I could be trying to learn that so I don't get mis-lynched, hurting my team's win con
So, if someone whose alignment you don't know tells you that you are giving off scumtells, your response would be to make sure you don't do them in the future as opposed to question the motivations of the person arguing it?
Since you are so focused on wincons, you do know that the town wincon isn't just to survive, right? If you just keep mislynching your fellow townies, you will lose the game. To win, you
have
to find scum. You can't just lynch anyone other than yourself. You have to lynch the
right
people. So, with that in mind, why are you more focused on not doing a specific scumtell rather than questioning srceenplay on whether emotional play is scummy in the first place? Why didn't you think he could be scum fabricating it as a reason to suspect you?
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Post #1163 (isolation #31) » Mon Apr 10, 2017 1:04 pm
Postby BlackVoid »
I don't think it is
necessarily
scummy for a new player to be survivalistic but if you are going to refer me back to the town wincon, I'd expect you to actually be playing towards it.
In post 1161, BlackVoid wrote:Since you are so focused on wincons, you do know that the town wincon isn't just to survive, right? If you just keep mislynching your fellow townies, you will lose the game. To win, you have to find scum. You can't just lynch anyone other than yourself. You have to lynch the right people. So, with that in mind, why are you more focused on not doing a specific scumtell rather than questioning srceenplay on whether emotional play is scummy in the first place? Why didn't you think he could be scum fabricating it as a reason to suspect you?
Because I did research and that was the general consensus. Appealing to emotion = bad
Yeah, I see StealthyNoodle linked you to the wiki page in 238. The posts that we are discussing happened before this. Your story is not adding up.
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Post #1178 (isolation #33) » Mon Apr 10, 2017 1:33 pm
Postby BlackVoid »
In post 1175, WhyMafia wrote:I didn't know what ate stood for, but i knew that using emotions was not a good way to play the game, if that's what you're trying to say
If you knew that using emotions was not a good way to play the game, why would do it?
(Also, nancy I saw your post. I'm commenting as I catch up so it might be a couple of hours before I finish).
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Post #1186 (isolation #35) » Mon Apr 10, 2017 1:38 pm
Postby BlackVoid »
Okay. I see you were warned by the mod to not discuss ongoing games. That makes a lot more sense now. Unfortunately, it doesn't tell me anything about your alignment. Looks like I hit a dead end here.
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Post #1195 (isolation #36) » Mon Apr 10, 2017 2:05 pm
Postby BlackVoid »
@nancy, it's possible you are right. It's not a read I'm very confident in. I'm currently on page 14 reading through CogMachine's push on srceenplay and it's actually something I agree with. Srceenplay's vote on Pine in 282 was bad. Then the bandwagon hop onto you in 339 when he was pressured was pretty bad too. I initially townread his 77 and 147 because his trying to get whymafia to vote Loopdan as bait seems genuine. But then he votes WhyMafia in 166 seemingly because WhyMafia hopped on the Loopdan bandwagon which doesn't sit right with me because he himself is bandwagoning a lot.
That's fine. You can use activity to be suspicious of someone but don't use it as the reason.
Just want to make sure that's understood.
In my first newbie game we ran up someone for lurking and skating by. They were at L-1 for over a day. Never came a defended themselves. We all saw them online multiple times. Finally we said f it. Lynched them. The doctor. Didn't really do anything wrong except didn't post when we wanted them to.
With this in mind, it makes zero sense for him to vote Pine because it's easier to lynch Pine while Pine was lurking.
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Post #1209 (isolation #38) » Mon Apr 10, 2017 2:22 pm
Postby BlackVoid »
@nancy, I agree with you on him looking like he was trying to draw out WhyMafia into voting Loopdan. I also agree that there seems to be more behind-the-scenes thought process there than he's letting on. I'm trying to weigh that against his opportunistic voting. I guess I'm finding it hard to get reads on everyone before the time we have left and trying to explore all options.
The only scumread I have any amount of confidence in is Pine. I'd appreciate if you could go back over Pine's posts with your knowledge of his previous meta and let me know what you think. Is there a reason you are dissuaded from lynching him other than that the lynch seems too easy?
In post 846, Drixx wrote:That's a probabilistic argument and it fails in light of the fact that we have information to work with. In fact ... I would go so far as to say that how Nancy responds to my request will have a HUGE impact on how the rest of this plays out. Try to read between the lines BlackVoid. If scum is who I think it is, I'm quite sure they will see what you didn't.
Like do you think this post comes from scum!Drixx?
Granted he hasn't elaborated on this point so I don't really know what his thought process is here.
Why would he not tell us who he thinks scum is in this context when it looks like he's about to be lynched?
Lynch preference from top to bottom, left to right are in no particular order.
In post 1080, Chronicle wrote:Well I'd prefer Src and Loop, but like I could compromise on the other 3 if there's anything compelling between now and deadline.
This seems like you are okay with pretty much any lynch outside of StealthyNoodle. Why?
What exactly is the point of asking this question if you know you are going to flip town. I could potentially see town asking it to someone that suspects them to read that person but you are asking confirmed town what she would do if you flipped scum...
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Post #1263 (isolation #45) » Mon Apr 10, 2017 4:05 pm
Postby BlackVoid »
In post 887, Drixx wrote:I've seen this kind of slip quite a lot. He's scum.
I will put my own skin on the line even. I'm that sure.
In post 931, Drixx wrote:I approach mafia from a rationalist perspective. Day one is literally the worst ever for me because of the near total lack of actual KNOWN info.
@Drixx, these two quotes don't really add up for me. Why would a rational player who is aware that D1 is the worst ever for him put his own skin on the line for a D1 scumread?
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Post #1267 (isolation #46) » Mon Apr 10, 2017 4:13 pm
Postby BlackVoid »
Okay, so I ISO'd Chronicle and read through the quotewall and I'm still null on the slot. I didn't find the defense of Noodle particularly scummy. It could easily be town that had a townread. I was mildly suspicious of Chronicle leaving their options open entirely and being ready to sheep nancy's Pine scumread. That combined with Drixx's latest post probably indicates that they're not partnered but I wouldn't bank on it. I re-read Chronicle's towngame again and the tone does seem to be a lot different than here and Chronicle's responses that the game was short doesn't really address that. I'm conflicted.
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Post #1275 (isolation #49) » Mon Apr 10, 2017 4:23 pm
Postby BlackVoid »
There was something bugging me about Drixx. I finally found what I was looking for. A recently completed game I spectated. Here is a Drixx post:
In post 11828, Reasonably Rational wrote:So what you're saying is that only your pride matters. You realize that we've been mislynched ONCE EVER, and that's featured in our signature.
Individually, we also both pride ourselves on not being mislynched.
The slot was scum so he may have been lying but I don't know why scum would lie about something like this. Assuming that's the truth, Drixx's play here doesn't come across like the play of someone who's almost mislynched and (seemingly) takes pride in that.
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Post #1287 (isolation #52) » Mon Apr 10, 2017 5:17 pm
Postby BlackVoid »
Yeah, I read it and his play here matches with his philosophy that if he's universally scumread, he should be lynched so he doesn't become a distraction or the game-winning mislynch for scum. He's done nothing to try to shake off the wagon on him or to try to survive. Maybe leaving Drixx alive another day to sort him out isn't a bad idea.
But I'm still not completely sold on Chronicle. I may be willing to switch my vote there. But I'd like to hear your thoughts on that src/WhyMafia interaction. Almost felt like "hey buddy, let's take the Drixx mislynch today and stop drawing attention to yourself."
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Post #1292 (isolation #53) » Mon Apr 10, 2017 5:41 pm
Postby BlackVoid »
After reading Pine's ISO again, I think I want to stick with Drixx. So much of what he said feels like regurgitated content. Where are we on the votecount?
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Post #1294 (isolation #55) » Mon Apr 10, 2017 5:46 pm
Postby BlackVoid »
But Drixx's push there and being "tempted to put him at L-1" is also weird. Seems like a way to out a PR. If Drixx thought Noodle was the doc, this would be a good way to confirm that and nightkill him.
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Post #1307 (isolation #58) » Mon Apr 10, 2017 6:11 pm
Postby BlackVoid »
Okay, we don't have the time or numbers to lynch anyone else so let's just assume a Drixx lynch and check for likely partners and people who are scum if he's town. nancy can hammer when we're done.
I'm really not seeing the scumread on Loopdan. I looked over his ISO multiple times now. If Pine is town, I suppose he could have been pushing a mislynch but attacking the IC and the most active player in the game seems like an odd strategy for scum to take especially for a low-content player like Loopdan.
I still have a hard time seeing TesXX as scum. I'm not a fan of his recent lurking, lack of strong pushes, and a readslist that basically called everyone some shade of scum. But the persistent early push to get the BP claim out seems town-motivated. I guess I could see a pre-game interaction in the scum PT where he goes "I'll suggest the BP/Tracker claim strategy for towncred" and then finds that he doesn't have much else to do but on balance, I think he's town.
WhyMafia and Srceenplay are the toughest to sort. A lot of their posts come across as contradictory and not directly advancing a town wincon but they seem somewhat new so I don't know how much of that is alignment indicative.
I don't know who fits best as a Drixx partner. If Drixx is town, I'd look into StealthyNoodle the most. Possibly Chronicle as well.
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Post #1311 (isolation #59) » Mon Apr 10, 2017 6:15 pm
Postby BlackVoid »
No, that wasn't a typo. I have a hard time seeing him as scum. But I backup modded a recent game where he was scum so I'll look over that again. Here is his ISO and here is the mafia PT if you want to take a look.
Also, what do you think of the possibility that WhyMafia and Srceeenplay are distancing?