FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt - 2 Game Over

[Servant Rider]

VOTE: Servant Assassin

[Servant Rider]

We've already used almost 10 of our 42 pages for the day (although I'm pretty sure we're supposed to get 45). So I'd appreciate it if the hyper-spam posters would start condensing their posts so we don't run the risk of exhausting ourselves.

[Servant Rider]

Well, that was the quickest scumread I've ever gotten.

[Servant Rider]

I don't think Archer is scum.

Also, playing in neat little boxes can be very fun if done well.

[Servant Rider]

Who’s town and who’s scum, Rider?

Idk. Your guess is probably better than mine. I haven't really been following the game.

I'm pretty sure that Avenger person was sketchy though.

[Servant Rider]

Do we get another 45 page allowance when Day 1 officially starts or is that tied in with the 42 in the vote count?

[Servant Rider]

What do you need to get invested in the game?

Idk. What can you offer me?

[Servant Rider]

Me

Lol. Ok.

[Servant Rider]

It also seems strange to have a miller and a "miller-proof" cop - unless we also have a non-miller proof cop, and I don't know how likely it is that Cabd would give us multiple cops

Considering that a lot of these super abilities are probably ***** and that it would take 5 days/nights to charge, most of these abilities will probably not see usage without outside help.

And I don't really believe the miller claim and feel like it was mostly done in reaction to Assassin indicating he had a cop-like ability.

[Servant Rider]

Quit trollin' you know you love being here. Or else you'd have left already.

I just thought it was funny that you townread yourself.

You should already know your own alignment, right?

[Servant Rider]

So you believe Assassin's claim, but you don't believe Avengers?

If that is the case, why would Assassin's ability apparently include wording to make it clear that their cop investigation sees through a miller?

Their abilities are incompatible. So I don't really understand this dichotomy.

This assumes his cop-ability acts in the traditional sense, which is not what I had assumed when he originally claimed anyway. But that just may be because I'm used to seeing different variations of investigative actions.

I don't know if I believe his claim or not. I mostly just voted for him because I needed to sleep and he claimed a strong ability.

[Servant Rider]

It's like, I don't find Saber's ability description all that enticing, but I find the wagon composition for Berserker to be slightly disturbing.

[Servant Rider]

Gut reads
Shielder - Can't remember him
Saber - Frustrated town
Archer - Strong town lean
Lancer - I waffle here. So gun to my head town but would eliminate as a compromise.
Rider - I know he's posting but I don't recall his content. Not sure if that's a me problem or a him problem as avatars are hard to tell apart.
Caster - Strong town lean.
Assassin - Gun to my head town. I have reservations about how he pursued being master.
Berserker - Moderate town. I don't know if it's jealousy or something nefarious over why he got more votes than me while facing much less questioning.
Ruler - Same as Rider.
Avenger - Weak town.
Moon Cancer - His flip reads scummy right now but I'll give his explanation a second read later when I am not stuck waiting on work.
Alter Ego - Strong town lean
Foreigner - Weak town
Beast - Weak town. It would be higher but major buddying concerns.

When you're scum hunting would you say you identify scum more often than average?

My scumhunting prowess is largely dependent on the environment I get and my own personal life.

My townhunting is where it's at.

Well of course if you call mostly everyone some sort of townread that you're going to think you're a great townhunter.

[Servant Rider]

I haven't looked at it in that much depth. I just don't like Avenger being on there, and I'm curious about Alter Ego and Moon Cancer considering I'm pretty sure they don't like each other. Like, isn't Alter Ego supposed to be Moon Cancer's biggest scumread?

And then there's Ruler. Ugh. I don't want to read their posts.

Currently in my reread process.

[Servant Rider]

I don't have a preference regarding Shielder. The only qualm I could see people having is if they think the replacement could make a better option than Berserker, but I don't really think Berserker would make a poor choice either way.

Also, Archer seems to really want the Berserker wagon, and I really like the Archer slot, so I wouldn't mind the Berserker wagon going through.

[Servant Rider]

I actually like Ruler for town.

[Servant Rider]

Why is their transparency sending out mixed signals to you? Wouldn't one think that would be a strong indicator for town?

[Servant Rider]

Give it up, Cabd. We're still not voting for you.

[Servant Rider]

I'm going to be busy the next few days. But fear not, I will do my best to post when able.

[Servant Rider]

I'm actually surprised my name hasn't been thrown out more.

I'm pretty sure I've stated only two townreads thus far, so I'll stick with those for who I'd like off the table.

The two I'd like Cabd to politely invite to the dead thread would probably be Saber and Beast.

[Servant Rider]

Omg. I got myself a pagetop. Put me on the board Foreigner.

[Servant Rider]

VOTE: Berserker

[Servant Rider]

I was sad when I realized they were gunna be an inactive slot. So I had nothing to push out the gate or use to develop reads on.
You can iso me. I mentioned shielder once before that. though I also think on my flip it'll just out right say they're town in the role pm that's released.

If Shielder was confirmed town to you, why were you so willing to just move on with electing Saber in 242 before Shielder had a chance to check into the game?

You first mention of Shielder doesn't come until 494.

In 244, Alter Ego responds to your 242 by saying some players, Shielder included, hadn't posted yet. But your response in 254 doesn't really seem to take Shielder's absence into consideration. If anything, at that point in the game, you seemed laser-focused on the Saber election.

[Servant Rider]

I have no idea what you just said.

[Servant Rider]

My preferred eliminations are Saber, Beast, and Avenger. Just outside of that pool are Foreigner and Shielder, although Shielder cannot be scum unless Beast is.

[Servant Rider]

I wouldn't want to put anyone to sleep.

[Servant Rider]

My reads are currently in chaos. Fear not, I will have them sorted in due time (hopefully within the next 6 hours or so).

[Servant Rider]

What do you think of Beast's claim being legit?

I don't believe the claim at all.

[Servant Rider]

I don't understand how some of you develop townreads. I feel like some of you just throw them around like candy. With that said, here are my thoughts on the game after another read through (I also may or may not have almost posted this on the wrong account).

Archer: Probably one of the most influential players regarding the Master selection phase. Quickly joined and left the Saber wagon to explore other options, and in a way that felt fairly townish to me. 95 is a rational thought that makes sense to me, regardless of whether one thought the cop-ability was legit, and he holds firm in 99. 277 is probably the best post from Archer in that I feel like his entire process of selecting someone to receive the Master upgrade was town-motivated. Archer's refusal to take Caster's bet on Berserker's alignment in 295 (although really this is a chain of interactions on Page 12) bodes very well for Archer in hindsight. I don't really feel like talking about this person anymore.

Ruler: While I don't necessarily agree with their conclusions, reading through their posts, the things that concern them are things I feel are more likely to come from someone with a town mindset rather than someone who is trying to fabricate reasons to fit their reads. This person also doesn't seem to like me at the moment, but I don't care as it's not like I've been going out of my way to make myself readable.

Caster: Little concern in 47 where it seems like Caster may or may not have attempted to draw out relative power of players by nudging them towards trying to get a Master. Posting on Page 12 seems fine. Regarding 351, Caster was obviously wrong in hindsight, but I like the thought process presented here and think it's more likely to be town-indicative. Caster and Archer interactions feel very TvT to me and I no longer want to comment on this person. 374 is a good post though.

Beast: He makes strange and off-putting comments. He says Saber seems fine in 80 while already having voted for Saber in 53, which begs the question as to why he joined the wagon in the first place, and if he was having concerns, why not unvote or air them. Early buddying on Lancer in 88. And I find his attitude in 87 slightly off-putting, especially with regards to the aforementioned 53. I can't really tell what the purpose is for their comments against Alter Ego in 113 and 118. Would town care to go through the pains of explaining a null read as Beast does? Or does this make more sense as scum shooting down a potential rival to Saber after Archer mentions Alter Ego as a preference in 84 and 95? The concerns outlined in 118 aren't bad, I just don't understand why he goes through all that and just says 'you're null to me', which is strange considering the strength of his townread on Saber at this point (who to me hadn't done anything particularly worthy of being read as town, at least not to that degree) and the fact they sound like reasons to scumread someone. Actually his approach to AE seems fine. However, at this point in the game, his attitude doesn't match what he claimed to have regarding Shielder being town and 'being disappointed in not having someone to latch onto out of the gate.' I just don't buy it. 281, 282, and 283 is an interesting chain of posts that seem fine at a glance, diving deeper feels mostly like Beast is trying to discredit Archer (whose process up to this point I haven't really had any issue with) in order to support the Saber wagon. Also, in 281, he makes a comment that seems to imply Saber to be a better choice over Berserker, although I don't really see where he would draw this conclusion. Between Beast and Archer, I feel like Beast's approach to the Master upgrade selection process was much more agenda-driven. The reasoning given for supporting Saber in 328 seems pretty weak. 344 is a discredit of Alter Ego which seems to be almost a direct response to Alter Ego voting for Berserker instead of Saber. 361 makes me think there is some sliver that I could be wrong on Beast being scum here, but when compared to the larger picture regarding his actions, I still feel like he had an agenda with regards to the Saber wagon.

Lancer:

I don't really have the same impression that he's super town like some others are claiming. But I also don't really see anything glaring or concerning.

Eh, I can buy 159 being a strong indicator for Lancer being town.

Assassin: 146 is kind of a weird post. Partly in that he could have been appealing to Berserker's 122 about him by saying he'd be fine with a Saber election, and I don't really get why one would think Berserker's thoughts concerning the charismatic town leader would be off-putting (kind of feels a little bit like OMGUS). Actually, reading through 152 gives me the impression Assassin just might not think he could be elected unless he shoots down the charisma argument, and I feel like that's something that could hold true for a player of either alignment. I like 156. I don't really understand 320. A point that favors Assassin's claim for me is that he never used the Miller claim as support (although, obviously, if he were scum and the Miller weren't, he wouldn't be able to continue his cop claim, although I don't remember seeing anyone challenge Assassin directly up to this point for a counter-claim, and Avenger hasn't exactly been doing anything to make me think he's town).

Alter Ego: 155 gives me some town feels. But only because I feel like I can relate to the idea of wanting to go for riskier plays even though it may really bite the collective in the long run if it fails. 244 also gave me some good town feels.

Foreigner: Early play seems town enough. Page 16 bothered me in that I thought it was possible Foreigner was intentionally inflating the post count, although now I just think he was trying to get a page top (and I feel a little silly in thinking one scum would try to burn all our pages by oneself). I have a sneaking suspicion the foreigner schtick may be there to intentionally make their posts harder to parse.

Saber: Aside from an early townread on Ego (which was argued by others that townreads there was questionable anyhow), most or all of early play was mainly campaigning. Maybe I'm wrong on this slot. 235 doesn't make sense to me as a natural train of thought, mainly in that Saber jumped to buddying just because Moon Cancer was scumreading the alternatives. 339 is interesting to me in that Saber says she

wants

to believe Assassin is lying (I'd be thrilled if Assassin were telling the truth, personally, so I don't really get why she'd feel this way if she were town), but I don't really want to argue semantics as it's possible she meant something else entirely.

Moon Cancer: I don't really understand 238 from a town perspective. Thinking too much and too much uncertainty in reads are scum-indicators? The Assassin comment seems to be exactly what Berserker mentioned previously, except Moon Cancer is scumreading Berserker too? Also seemed to be piggybacking off the opinions of Ruler for their reads. Not a huge fan here. Also not sure if there's more to this than what we're seeing.

Avenger: My stance on negative utility roles is very simple. If you're going to claim one, your play better be strongly indicative of you being obvtown or I will do my best to eliminate you.

I see too many times where scum get ignored off a fakeclaim and they get away with basically nothing, which is what Avenger has done thus far. It also doesn't help his case that not only did he claim way later than a claimed cop-like ability, but Assassin also claims his role is incompatible with the Miller claim.

434 shows some promise that Avenger could be town.

I only got to page 23 before losing interest. Didn't really see anything in the last several pages to change any of my reads and am unsure if I'm just being biased now. Don't ask me to do something like this again or finish this. I won't do it.

[Servant Rider]

I’ve already brought up that I’m immune to investigations and think that’s weird in conjunction with the claims on the table.

I forgot about this. But yes, knowing that you have this and you're confirmed town makes it more difficult for me to believe in the legitimacy of Avenger's claim.

I don't really get the implications toward me and Saber either. Are you saying that I'm scum with Saber and was trying to push his wagon through? That seems unlikely scum rarely have the guts for that.

I would find it difficult believing scum would be as adamant as you were to move a wagon from town (Berserker) onto another town (Saber). So I feel like if you were scum, then Saber would probably be scum as well. However, I don't really think it works the other way around. I don't think Saber being scum would necessarily imply you being scum, if that makes any sense. And I also believe Saber could be scum even if you weren't.

although, obviously, if he were scum and the Miller weren't, he wouldn't be able to continue his cop claim

I don't understand this reasoning.

Assume a scenario where Avenger is town and Assassin is scum.

Avenger claiming Miller would imply the existence of a slot that can directly investigate for alignment (not necessarily, but it would be a reasonable assumption). Assassin, having already claimed a cop ability, would then be at risk of either being counter-claimed by another player or having their ability overlapping with another player(s).

I'm not currently leaning towards this actually being the case here.

[Servant Rider]

I'm pretty sure Beast claimed (or indicated as such) just a little bit before you posted.

I still don't believe the claim. Mainly because if I knew you were town, I would probably have been interested in waiting to see if you'd be interested in the Master upgrade, and then immediately proceed to find a way to campaign for you. However, Beast's play doesn't seem to show any indication of wanting to see your stance regarding the Master upgrade at all and instead mostly revolves around getting Saber elected and discrediting other potential candidates and their supporters.

[Servant Rider]

Well, that's an interesting way to punish a player.

[Servant Rider]

VOTE: Moon Cancer

[Servant Rider]

Then - I don't like that 801 seems designed to make us question Berserker's judgement

I think this is probably more frustration on Foreigner's part and related to him suspecting Caster this game (see 627, 677, 798).

[Servant Rider]

Your comment makes no sense in relation to mine.

[Servant Rider]

No. Archer said Foreigner's comment was designed to make us question Berserker's judgement. I disagree and believe he made that comment because he may have been frustrated with the way his scumread (Caster) was being treated by Berserker. 801 was also a direct response to my 799, which was me questioning his 798. Nowhere did I mention whether I believed that comment was town- or scum-motivated.

I also happen to be voting Moon Cancer. The two are unrelated.

If I really wanted to defend someone, I would actually

defend

them.

[Servant Rider]

If people would rather skip the partner speculation, I'd be perfectly fine with wagoning/eliminating Saber here.

[Servant Rider]

VOTE: Saber

[Servant Rider]

I missed the assassin post there.
Well if Assassin targets anyone outside of me, it's a scum claim.

I'm inclined to believe Assassin

as it's easily disproven

.

How's that? By eliminating you?

[Servant Rider]

To catch up and read, or just go with the flow? Decisions,

decisions

.

[Servant Rider]

VOTE: Moon Cancer

[Servant Rider]

scum miller

I'm curious to know how such a paradoxical role would operate.

[Servant Rider]

I think Avenger recalling the gladiate after seeing that he was going to lose it is very NAI survivalist.

This was my general impression of the canceled play.

He was already in my pool of preferred eliminations, so I'm mostly just interested to see what Moon flips here.

[Servant Rider]

?

[Servant Rider]

There is some comfort that foreigner, rider, and Avenger aren't on the wagon.

Sorry to break your heart, but I've been on both Moon Cancer wagons.

What I don't understand is why you're on it.

[Servant Rider]

I wouldn't be surprised if there was a decent amount of investigative abilities in this setup. I'm less concerned with whether someone claims one than whether I think the person claiming it is town.

[Servant Rider]

beast/avenger unlikely to be partners.

Why do you think this?

I'm fine with the idea that Foreigner is probably just town considering it was likely they were the scum-designated mislim.

My preferred elimination pool currently contains Avenger, Saber, and Beast.

Me and saber were first to catch Moon, so you should follow me now.

Who are you even voting right now? Or are you just implying that you'd like to eliminate Avenger?

I think we just keep killing the people who don't seem to care because I think the scum team might be demotivated and barely playing.

You can pick which ones you would like to go after.

[Scummiest]: Rider

Regarding my 'apathy,' just because my effort doesn't look like another player's effort, it doesn't mean I don't care. My schedule is such that I run into periods where it is very difficult or even impossible for me to post or pay attention to this game. But I'm still following along and contributing when I can.

[Servant Rider]

I feel like I went through it pretty extensively in my previous (albeit unfinished) analysis of the game.

[Servant Rider]

VOTE: Saber

[Servant Rider]

But, because it is in the middle of a reads list, it is not actually pushing moon

The names in that list aren't in any particular order.

[Servant Rider]

I feel as though, if anything, the scumflip should implicate Avenger, considering Avenger led the Foreigner wagon at Day Start in response to the Moon Cancer wagon and gladiated Foreigner when original Berserker proclaimed Moon Cancer was scheduled to be eliminated.

[Servant Rider]

I agree that Saber is probably the best elim for today. They're already claimed, so we won't have to worry about the risk of running up some random townie to a claim and giving the scumteam any more information than they've already received from us this Day Phase. And enough people are scumreading or at least suspicious of Saber that an elimination there will allow most players to reset or reconsider their reads if we're wrong.

[Servant Rider]

This explanation feels half-baked as if they didn't expect to actually flesh out their theory with actual names.

I generally got the impression the goal was primarily to take suspicion off of themselves and throw it literally anywhere else rather than to find an appropriate alternative.

[Servant Rider]

I have a policy to not take a person's posts or opinions seriously while they're self-voting.

[Servant Rider]

Very little, if at all. I'm not even sure if anyone wants to eliminate Saber on the basis of whether or not they think Saber is lying, but rather in the way they went about (and are going about) things.

[Servant Rider]

Maybe, but we already have Avenger's true name.

[Servant Rider]

VOTE: Avenger

[Servant Rider]

Kind of strange that the setup can apparently produce that many clears.

I don't think this is actually a thing.

[Servant Rider]

My preferred eliminations are still Avenger and Beast.

[Servant Rider]

Lancer, if you don't mind explaining it, what exactly does your ability do?

[Servant Rider]

Sounds like it's a thing Rider.

Like I said, I don't really think it is.

And you're one of the players my comment pertains to, who I'm scumreading, so I don't really care much for this comment.

[Servant Rider]

Okay, I kind of believe that claim from Lancer.

But I still think Avenger and Beast are the best eliminations for today.

[Servant Rider]

That you have a friendly neighbor ability.

[Servant Rider]

I feel like I’m being pretty wishy-washy. It’s probably still better if I’m not selected, although I won’t say no if we’re prioritizing trying to hit town. I feel like I’ll be pretty obvtown which is good for that, but also I’ll be obvtown regardless and don’t need the master to confirm me per se.

I feel like you may have alluded to it early on here? Which gives some credibility to your claim for me.

I thought you were probably town anyway.

[Servant Rider]

Berserker is immune to investigations.

[Servant Rider]

Why would your area of doubt be on me naming my ability and not on, say, whether Avenger is lying?

I don't really understand this question.

If you hadn't outright claimed your ability, I would question it more. And I outright even said I don't think this setup is capable of producing that many clears, or at least not as easily as some would like to believe.

However, you did outright claim your ability, and it seems to make sense with your early play. And I felt like you were likely to be town even without this ability.

Avenger isn't really in a position to lie about your ability, even if he were scum. However, there is plenty for him to gain for him by telling the truth, especially since he was probably already in the hot seat as it were.

As far as the setup goes, we have:

-Potential to modconfirm a townie with a mechanic that definitely leans more toward the town (see: Berserker)

-A claimed Friendly Neighbor (that seems to be gated in some way)

-A super-cop-like NP that Assassin is claiming to have

-An informed townie that knows another player has to be town

Not to mention what else could be in this setup.

Considering the stomp of a game that was the previous FGO, do you really think Cabd feels like town needs all this basically free help to overpower and beat the scumteam?

Of the three I bolded, two of them also seem to require the town to be able to earn with decent play in some way. The last one was claimed by Beast, and I still think he's lying about it.

[Servant Rider]

the only way you think I might not actually be confirmed town is if you think Avenger and I are scum together

, as this game is explicitly not bastard. It shouldn't matter what my ability is or isn't.

What?

How would I possibly even begin able to determine if the two of you weren't scum together without knowing what your ability is?

[Servant Rider]

Lancer, how would I even begin to make the determination of whether the two of you are scum together without knowing what the ability is?

[Servant Rider]

Not to mention, Avenger could also have received something else entirely and conftowned you for poor reasons.

[Servant Rider]

that's why it's weird to me that Rider is talking about believing my ability being the reason to think I'm town.

Also, I said I thought you were town

even without this ability

, which makes me think you're not even reading my posts.

[Servant Rider]

It had more to do with 'why does Avenger think Lancer is conftown.' If he had been locktowning you for a fruit vendor or something, then I'd be a lot more suspicious. Just because it's your ability, doesn't mean I'm necessarily questioning just your alignment (or your alignment at all). I was mainly interested in Avenger's motivations, especially considering he's one of my preferred eliminations.

You claimed Friendly Neighbor, which is a fairly cut and dry ability, and not what I was expecting to begin with. But I remembered you mentioning early on that you'd be obvtown anyway, checked the post in question, and it seemed to match.

Regardless of whether or not I thought you were town, I don't see what the issue in asking what your ability does. Especially since you were willing to outright claiming it. If we're going to locktown you (or at least treat you as locktown), don't you think it would make sense for people to know why? You think I should just take some guy's word for it, especially when he was willing to gladiate someone in spite of the original modconfirmed townie proclaiming who we were going to eliminate?

[Servant Rider]

Instead of, I don't know -- joining the bus?

Because Avenger claimed miller in the face of a claimed 'cop.' The 'cop' claims the miller is irrelevant to the way his ability functions. Also, nobody has challenged Assassin's 'cop' ability directly (so no indication of another role being affected by the miller), so I believe the miller claim was done primarily in response to Assassin rather than him actually being a miller.

Avenger started the Foreigner wagon in response to the Moon Cancer wagon. Avenger also gladiated Foreigner when Moon Cancer was scheduled to be flipped. Both of these are indications to me that Foreigner was probably just being setup as the counterwagon to scum, and I think Avenger is the very strong candidate for actually being scum here.

As far as 'joining the bus' is concerned? I don't really feel like scum would be that willing to just give up a player that can modify the factional kill into a strongman. Especially in the face of a modconfirmed townie that cannot die until Night 2.

[Servant Rider]

Except the way it was done was never going to save moon.... We had a double elimination. At best, it would have moved moon from elim #1 to elim #2

And if he really was going all out to save moon, why tell us he could stop the gladiate, and why stop it?

Unless you think that the entire scum team did not realize we had a double elim day 1?

I believe eliminating at least one townie on a double elimination day is miles better than potentially allowing the town to flip two scum, especially since the original Berserker was leading towards eliminating both Saber AND Moon Cancer on Day 1.

I don't understand what the second quote has to do with anything, unless you're trying to argue that Avenger is town, which I don't think he is.

Regarding Avenger saying he could stop the gladiate? Avenger's attitude seemed mostly that he felt he could win the gladiate with bravado alone. It clearly didn't work, and him claiming a way out of the gladiate seemed mostly as a way to feed into that 'confidence.' Why would a townie have the ability to cancel their gladiate as part of their gladiate ability anyway? Seems more like a mechanism to protect scum in case things go south.

[Servant Rider]

Yeah, but Saber was clearly not going to be townread if she lost the election, and I think she knew that just based on the way she campaigned.

If Saber wins the election and flips scum, are we more or less inclined to believe her scumread on Moon Cancer? In the face of losing the election and several other players suspecting her anyways, what would be the harm to the scumteam in just her sitting on the Moon Cancer wagon?

Unfortunately for them, we eliminated them both regardless.

[Servant Rider]

Yes, but before that, he was leaning Saber AND Moon Cancer.

And even if it's Moon Cancer and Avenger that are scheduled to die, that's even more reason for scum-Avenger to gladiate a townie, don't you think?

[Servant Rider]

How does it not make sense?

Do you believe he's actually a miller?

[Servant Rider]

I'm actually more curious in why you think all our Day 1 wagons were on scum. Like, is your game-breaking analysis that the scumteam just let the town wagon all the scum without going for a townie?

[Servant Rider]

Why do you believe the Miller claim and not the 'cop' claim? That seems fairly counter-intuitive. Especially since the 'cop' claimed first AND said they were incompatible with the miller claim instead of using the miller claim as support for believing their own claim.

It also seems strange to have a miller and a "miller-proof" cop - unless we also have a non-miller proof cop, and I don't know how likely it is that Cabd would give us multiple cops

Considering that a lot of these super abilities are probably ***** and that it would take 5 days/nights to charge, most of these abilities will probably not see usage without outside help.

And I don't really believe the miller claim and feel like it was mostly done in reaction to Assassin indicating he had a cop-like ability.

I agree with the last paragraph and I want to believe assassin is lying.

Not to mention, the part here about Saber

wanting

to believe Assassin is lying makes me more inclined to believe that Assassin is town and telling the truth here.

[Servant Rider]

You're so deep into this fantasy of yours that I don't really think you're worth the effort of salvation.

[Servant Rider]

I'm just going to sit here and watch the results of this wagon.

[Servant Rider]

And if Assassin is telling the truth, why would his ability be worded in such a way that makes it clear it would by pass a miller, unless we have a miller.

I'm pretty sure Assassin indicated that he

was not

expecting a miller to be in the setup and don't think his ability was worded in a way to bypass a miller specifically. I'm pretty sure Assassin only said that their ability would not be affected by one.

[Servant Rider]

Hello, I'm here.

I am claiming Miller. You know what helps to sniff out a false Miller? Becoming the master!

My NP goes through this. I am surprised that miller would be a thing in this setup.

As a note about the miller claim, my ability is more complicated than "select target - learn alignment". It will however produce an 100% effective un-counterable cop result.

[Servant Rider]

Avenger is just scum. You've yet to explain to me why Avenger is town (or at least what you have presented is wildly insufficient to do so).

Foreigner is just the scum counterwagon. I don't think his posting has been that scummy either. Trollish at times, yes, but I don't have an issue with their posting, at least not in light of Saber's and Moon Cancer's alignments.

Even independently of wagons or whatever Saber and Moon Cancer were doing (and your wild and outlandish theory), I would think Avenger to be scum and Foreigner to be town (or at least more likely than Avenger).

I feel like the simplest and most likely explanation for what happened on Day 1 is for Foreigner to be town and Avenger to be scum, whereas I need to jump through many hoops to reach the opposite conclusion that you're presenting to me, which I just don't see being a thing.

[Servant Rider]

Archer, I want your thoughts on 1731, especially in light of this so-called miller claim.

[Servant Rider]

I was shot at last night, I have an ability that delays my death until the end of this day phase.

This further cements my suspicions of Beast being scum here, and I don't have a preference between eliminating Beast or Avenger.

[Servant Rider]

I have a different theory. And it involves Archer specifically.

[Servant Rider]

I currently believe you're responsible for Ruler's elimination and are currently trying to eliminate Foreigner as recompense.

[Servant Rider]

Hello, I'm here.

I am claiming Miller. You know what helps to sniff out a false Miller? Becoming the master!

My NP goes through this. I am surprised that miller would be a thing in this setup.

As a note about the miller claim, my ability is more complicated than "select target - learn alignment". It will however produce an 100% effective un-counterable cop result.

Archer, I want your thoughts on 1731, especially in light of this so-called miller claim.

Archer, I'm still waiting on your response to this.

I'd also like you to explain your scumread of Foreigner.

[Servant Rider]

I'd just like to state that my Noble Phantasm is a gated PT Cop.

Just in case people decide they want to run wild with making neighborhoods.

[Servant Rider]

I would say that unless someone has a firm role-related reason to believe a miller should exist in this setup, thinking his role or play this game to be even remotely town would be incredibly silly, misguided, or potentially even scum-motivated.

[Servant Rider]

Archer, I was going to say something regarding that delay, but fair enough.

[Servant Rider]

or potentially even scum-motivated.

Rider, please, I am begging you.

Please try to scum case me right now.

I would actually love to see how you could try to spin that

I don't think I could even if I wanted to.

And it's why I have you as being misguided rather than scum, and thus have kept you out of my elimination pile.

[Servant Rider]

I select two players and I'm told if at least one of them has access to a PT.
There is a way for me to receive more specific (and thus actually useful results), hence why I say it's gated.

I'm not saying you can't make a neighborhood. Just understand that giving a player access to a neighborhood is essentially the same thing as accepting that I would not be able to receive a useful result on that player with my ability.

[Servant Rider]

Seeing as how I feel as though I could get Avenger flipped regardless, I think you'd need to up that ante.

Although the only other thing I'd really want is serious consideration in eliminating my other scumread (Beast).

[Servant Rider]

So, I mean, I feel like I have at least somewhat of a solid grasp of the game state this game. So it feels a bit odd to be talked about as though I am just a lost townie -- whether you agree with my current read or not.

I feel as though this same argument can be applied to me as well, especially considering my 855 came before your 901, and had all of Beast, Avenger, Moon Cancer, and Saber explained as some sort of scum read.

Caster, your disappearance is incredibly unnerving and I need to see more things from you ASAP.

Archer and Lancer are still town, Ruler is town, alter is town. Shielder is town.

Rider is leaning town, I quite enjoyed their wall. Caster disappearing is concerning.

To which original Berserker even admitted to have enjoyed reading through and I would not be surprised if my wall played into the slots they were looking to push and eliminate, seeing as how at least three (Avenger, Moon Cancer, and Saber) ended up being on the chopping block for elimination.

And if you don't really want to trust my reads because I'm not confirmed town or whatever, then we can at least trust notscience's because he was confirmed town and was on a hot streak as well.

Let's put it this way though, how often are millers dealt with?
More than not. I personally think that the general meta should be Miller claims do not make MyLo unless confirmed town.
I also think that a vig should always shoot a miller claim regardless of what has happened. Therefore, it's actually a stupid play from scum to claim (hence why the meta should remain regardless).

I don't survive to end game, and I'm not going to be pushing back on that later.
I have 2 additional roles though, 1 is either for or against scum (and low key ironic for me to get), and 1 is anti scum in this setup.
Both of these are also provable, the first at any point in the day and the second at the end of the day.

Here's some food for thought though, and I've been thinking this over for the last day to if I should say or not, and I've decided I want to since Lancer and Foreigner are shading and most likely contain 1-2 scum.
In addition, my power up power thing is the same Sabres. Originally I read Sabres comment as it's better late game, and that is my view on it.
So my thoughts here are
A) if anyone else at all has this power, then its plausible to be town or at least irrelevant to thought right now and I think Sabre is town anyway.
B) if only me and Sabre have this power then it's likely 1 of us is scum and 1 of us is town. Obviously in this situation, I would claim the town.

If its A, I'm probably going to use my first power on Foreigner if the votes are not going there.

0 reason to claim this as town. Townie would be more paranoid about revealing powers. Avenger got scared that after saber flips and someone notices that he used this ability, we will notice that he has to be scum for having the same power as flipped townie.

Yeah, I clocked that too foreigner. We will deal with them next flip.

Which, once again, with Avenger being on the chopping block for elimination, gives him plenty of motivation to want to gladiate Foreigner with a 1v1 as scum.

[Servant Rider]

You're so deep into this fantasy of yours that I don't really think you're worth the effort of salvation.

I find it laughable you think Archer is proposing a fantasy when their view of the game seems very rational and in line with my own thoughts

Yeah, but I don't really get the feeling that your grasp on this game is that great.

[Servant Rider]

I don't know what the 'one must be scum, one must be town' pairing is referring to.

[Servant Rider]

I would say my perspective is more emblematic of the general consensus, and I’m also confirmed town, so do you really want to try gaslighting me?

Why do you think I'm gaslighting you?

What do you mean more emblematic of the general consensus?

If you're trying to say that you are the direct reason we have two flipped scum, I would say no. I would say it was more your predecessor and the actions of other players around you, and that you mostly just inherited the slot because notscience posted on the wrong account. I don't even think you were on the final Saber wagon.

Just because you are in agreement with someone else doesn't mean either of you two are right.

[Servant Rider]

It's not an ad hominem.

Just stating it how I see it.

[Servant Rider]

I would say my perspective is more emblematic of the general consensus, and I’m also confirmed town, so do you really want to try gaslighting me?

Why do you think I'm gaslighting you?

What do you mean more emblematic of the general consensus?

If you're trying to say that you are the direct reason we have two flipped scum, I would say no. I would say it was more your predecessor and the actions of other players around you, and that you mostly just inherited the slot because notscience posted on the wrong account. I don't even think you were on the final Saber wagon.

Just because you are in agreement with someone else doesn't mean either of you two are right.

I think you’re gaslighting me because you’re trying to suggest I shouldn’t trust myself. As for being more emblematic, it means our thought processes are shared by even more people than just us, and as such if you want to say we’re wrong you have a lot of people to convince.

I wouldn’t say I directly caused any scum to be eliminated but I took a deliberate course of not using my vote as an influence Day 1 and instead simply speaking my thoughts. I also don’t think your current attitude of trying to besmirch me for not voting out scum is a good look.

I don't think you understand what gaslighting means.

Just because multiple players share the same view, doesn't mean it's right.

I've still yet to see an valid argument on why the 'miller' claim should be trusted.

I don't really care whether or not besmirching you is a good look. You say 'I'm confirmed town and plenty of people agree with me.' These are appeals to authority ('you should believe I'm right because I'm confirmed town') and to the crowd ('a lot of others believe the same thing, so it must be right'), both of which are common fallacies.

If you really have that big of an issue with it, then just eliminate me.

[Servant Rider]

It's not an ad hominem.

Just stating it how I see it.

You’re literally saying that I wasn’t a factor in the scum flips and that I’m essentially resting on notsci’s laurels. That’s ad hominem.

The truth hurts. Doesn't make it any less true.

[Servant Rider]

I condescend a lot at people that push me when I'm town though. It's a bad habit and bad play, but I do it frequently enough that I just sit in the "could come from either" camp, camp.

I do think Rider is fairly grumpy even though we're winning though. But I think foreigner or Avenger probably has at least 1 scum in it.

Why would I be grumpy?

All the biggest threats to my role have been dealt with in some form or another:
-The player that is immune to investigations is conftown
-The strongman scum was eliminated Day 1
-The PT-crashing scum was also eliminated Day 1
-The town roleblocker was eliminated Night 1

My issue is the ridiculousness that is being presented to me by Archer [and potentially Berserker] in preserving Avenger despite him being very likely scum.

[Servant Rider]

I mean you think I'm very likely scum, so I'm not sure how seriously I can take this statement.

And yet you still push my scumreads for me.

I don't know if I should really care how seriously you take me.

[Servant Rider]

Well, I'm actually arguing that Avenger

is

scum and Foreigner

is

town.

So, no? You interpreted it correctly the first time?

[Servant Rider]

I'm going to be honest, I'm not really that certain Foreigner has to be town.

I just really really don't think Avenger has any shot of not being scum.

[Servant Rider]

You shouldn't care how seriously I take you.

Hey, I've always voted there first. You just voted right after.

To me, you're not on the table today without something very convincing being thrown at you.

I'm clearly missing something, but why are you gloating about how nothing can stop you now that your archenemy is dead.

Yeah, kind of hard to pass up the potential to eliminate a scumread, regardless of who's leading it.

I wouldn't say that I'm invincible or anything, but I'm now afforded a fair amount of tranquility with how the first Day played out.

[Servant Rider]

The real comedy option is for all of Avenger, Rider, Ruler 1, and Ruler 2 to all be town, and this is just a game of "just how many town players can hard defend the scum team"

Like....

Says the player defending Avenger.

[Servant Rider]

How is someone snagging or not snagging credit for a Moon Cancer flip and Avenger claiming Miller even remotely comparable? Those are two completely different things.

How about this? If no one claims a valid role-related reason to believe the Miller claim, we eliminate Avenger today. If someone does, we do what you want [which I presume is eliminating Foreigner].

As far as Foreigner is concerned, I find it more believable that he was convinced he was the scum counterwagon to Moon Cancer and didn't think Saber-scum would be bussing there. And I don't have any issue with the way he pushed Avenger or Moon Cancer Day 1. I also find it unlikely for scum to just double-up and push a wagon like that [even if it were intended to be a bus wagon] by voting back-to-back like that.

[Servant Rider]

If we flipped Avenger today, and he flipped town -- where would you want to flip tomorrow?

Beast.

But if we flipped Avenger and he flipped town, I would be shocked that anyone would care about what I wanted to eliminate tomorrow.

[Servant Rider]

That we know of. We also know their true name, but the particularly concerning part is the fact they claimed 'miller' which doesn't seem to fit the setup as far as I can tell and the timing of their Gladiator action.

[Servant Rider]

Catching up.

My issue with the Avenger-scum hypothesis is that for it to be true, it supposes Titus was doing nothing but bussing on day 1 (she jumped on Avenger in the duel and pushed fairly hard on him), and I'm not sure why that is somehow more plausible than all 3 wagons day 1 being on scum. To dismiss one of those as implausible but not the other seems like questionable logic.

What would be the issue with Titus bussing all her partners on Day 1? Her goal was to be elected and be removed from the game.

Do you think it's more likely that town will just listen to all her reads after they know she was scum all along, or question the validity of her reads?

[Servant Rider]

Like, people have said "I am surprised how many clears this set up can make" --- but like, having both a player immune to investigations and a player who is a miller is the counter to that.

On top of a 'friendly neighbor', neighborizing-cop, PT cop, and 'informed townie'?

Berserker being immune to investigations seems plenty enough as a counter to investigative actions across the board.
Who is the 'miller' countering?

[Servant Rider]

Well, I don't believe the informed townie claim either.

But the Miller claim doesn't fit anywhere. My role doesn't care about the Miller. Assassin's doesn't seem to think their role cares about it either.

[Servant Rider]

@Rider -- Day 0 came before Day 1

So no, none of her Day 1 plays were built around the idea that she might get elected

(I get the feeling that maybe I am not the one with a poor grasp of the game state)

Day 0 can arguably be considered part of Day 1.

Don't act like you twisting semantics around is a reason to argue me having a poor grasp of the game state.

[Servant Rider]

and you did just ask investigatives to out themselves which is anti-town.

There are

two

scum left.

Two

.

If someone has a valid reason to think Avenger is a Miller, they should definitely out it. And if not, we can eliminate Avenger and squeeze out the last with the remaining Days and Night Actions.

Acting like we can't afford to out some very specific investigative role (that probably would've challenged Assassin on Day 1 when Assassin claimed Cop mind you) with what we already have on the table is very silly.

[Servant Rider]

Look back at your post 1824...

Alter Ego talked about things that Saber did Day 1.

You responded that those things made perfect sense because Saber planned on getting elected. -- Which clearly does not line up with the actual order of events.

Maybe it is less of your grasp on the game state (that was more of a light jab, in response to you completely dismissing my ideas as fantasy) and more that you just did not read Alter's post too closely before you decided to disagree with it.

Yes, but Saber also immediately pushed Moon Cancer early on in Day 0 (and for reasoning I found to be suspicious). So yes, Saber probably did plan on bussing to some degree (and that's why I read Alter Ego's post in the manner that I did).

Moon Cancer originally supported Saber before backing down and flipping their reads, which makes me think that Moon Cancer was not really on board with that plan, at least not initially.

With regards to what happened on Day 1, who really cares? It's not like Saber made it there without a heap load of suspicion on her, especially after we found out what her Noble Phantasm really was.

[Servant Rider]

Rider, you seem more against a Foreigner flip then I would expect from just about anyone.

Like, I know I came out saying I was hard against an Avenger flip -- but I have since softened to the idea that if I am wrong, you are probably right.

I find it interesting that when I asked you if Avenger flipped town, where you would look next, that you were not equally interested in looking into the other option presented today (foreigner)

While I admit I may be wrong on Foreigner (and I'm pretty sure I even said I wasn't completely convinced), you've still failed to convince me that Foreigner is scum, even if Avenger is town.

But it's also probably because I don't really think I'm wrong on Avenger right now?

[Servant Rider]

Also, my issue today is mostly that I feel like people are discounting Avenger for very silly or outright poor reasons.

[Servant Rider]

Does Avenger + Foreigner even make sense here? How much bussing is too much bussing for a scumteam?

[Servant Rider]

If it makes you feel any better, if foreigner does flip town, then obviously my idea for what the scum team was doing was wrong, and for me, Avenger will be back on the table.

I am not trying to say that I think Avenger should be off the table forever, just not the flip for today

Sadly, it seems as though Foreigner will be the flip today, or at least over Avenger. I don't really see a point in distracting from the wagon any longer if so many others are convinced this is the way to go.

Hopefully I'm wrong and Foreigner is just scum. I'll eat my words and apologize profusely to you and Berserker if that's the case. If I'm right, I'm probably going to be fairly irritated, and I'm going to want more than just an 'oh I guess we should just flip Avenger now'.

[Servant Rider]

Hey! I can't be the only one not using logical fallacies.

[Servant Rider]

I'm a gated PT cop.
Lancer is a friendly neighbor.

[Servant Rider]

I'd just like to state that my Noble Phantasm is a gated PT Cop.

Just in case people decide they want to run wild with making neighborhoods.

So... My NP conditionally creates a neighborhood, and the condition is whether my target is town or scum. Unsure if that's relevant but I see Shielder/Rider saying stuff about Neighborhoods thought I'd add that to the mechanical mix.

(which is why it goes through millers, wouldn't be affected by beserker's passive, etc.)

I'd just like to state that my Noble Phantasm is a gated PT Cop.

Just in case people decide they want to run wild with making neighborhoods.

What does a "gated PT Cop" even mean? Like, you check to see if someone is in a PT?

Are you advocating we don't make neighborhoods?

I select two players and I'm told if at least one of them has access to a PT.
There is a way for me to receive more specific (and thus actually useful results), hence why I say it's gated.

I'm not saying you can't make a neighborhood. Just understand that giving a player access to a neighborhood is essentially the same thing as accepting that I would not be able to receive a useful result on that player with my ability.

Works for me, anyone that enters my neighborhood will be town anyway.

^This is for Shielder.

[Servant Rider]

I feel like 'PT Cop' would not be an entirely correct way to describe your role, although it wouldn't necessarily be wrong either. You are after all essentially a cop that can create PT's.

I actually investigate for PT's though.

[Servant Rider]

@Rider -- beast has claimed an investigative ability that if it can determine if someone tried to kill,

I imagine it would interact with a miller claim

Doubtful.

[Servant Rider]

I find it hilarious that Avenger is now being set up to make the nightkills for the remainder of the game if they were scum. But hey, let's just keep them around.

[Servant Rider]

idk man. I keep pinging back and forth

Passing a detective check from beast is a good look for him, especially if it turns out both kills came from the scum team -- but then 2 kills coming from the scum team in a game that is 10 v 4 seems strange to me -- but then no one is claiming a vig shot. So, idk

Foreigner claiming to watcher beast does not help him though. If anything, beast makes more sense to be targeted by a scum watcher then a town watcher, so then it comes down from to "did foreigner make a bad play, or is foreigner just scum here" -- and again, that is confusing

So, no he is not exonerated, but I guess I would say I went from "We should definitely yeet Foreigner today" to "I am very confused about Foreigner"

Yeah, I'd say I'm a little confused as well. Having played Watcher before, I guess I can see where someone might think there are too many potential choices for the scumteam to kill, or they're just not confident enough to go with a particular person, so they may want to just try and verify any visiting actions instead of wasting their shot. Especially since a lot of these abilities (at least from what I've seen) seem to be limited in usage. I guess here it just depends on who they think would have been the possible Night Kills.

The problem with the Beast investigation is that I can see the motivation coming from either alignment.

I'd say I've probably gone from "I'm fairly confident this isn't scum" to "yeah, idk, still not my preferred elimination for today."

[Servant Rider]

The more I think about it, the more I think Foreigner might actually be scum.

But then it's like, wtf was the scumteam doing on Day 1?

[Servant Rider]

Mechanically speaking though, Avenger is still the best elimination for today.

[Servant Rider]

And now I no longer care which one gets eliminated first.

[Servant Rider]

I went back through Foreigner's iso and haven't seen anything resembling game solving for today. I also feel very unenthused by the self-vote since Ruler already tried the same stunt on Day 1.

Anyhow, my sleep schedule is in chaos and I need to take a nap before work.

[Servant Rider]

I think Beast has a decently strong chance of being scum this game.

[Servant Rider]

Who did you clear?

[Servant Rider]

VOTE: Avenger

[Servant Rider]

Even if you think Avenger could be town, they will have to be eliminated tomorrow anyway, since the day after tomorrow is Mylo.

I don't think they're town though. I still think the Miller claim was mainly in response to Assassin's 'cop' claim, even though it doesn't interact with theirs. And the 'killer' addendum was only made in response to Beast's [I don't actually know what it's supposed to be, detective?] claim, to which Beast can't verify anyway. And I still think the timing of the Gladiate is scummy.

Also, I'm fairly certain Avenger's only scumread all game was on Foreigner, which makes me think it was just a long bus [other than an early one on Assassin, but let's be real, a 'gut' scumread is hardly something I'd call genuine].

[Servant Rider]

Archer also flipped Jailkeeper.

[Servant Rider]

Why do you think it's me?

[Servant Rider]

If you want to eliminate me, just let me know, and I'll even self-vote for you.

However, Avenger will need to be flipped after me regardless, and if I'm right and they're scum, then we can save everyone a Day/Night phase by eliminating them now.

[Servant Rider]

Considering all the wagons on Day 1 were on scum, I think we should all accept that the scumteam was just trying really hard for free towncred regardless of who got flipped first.

[Servant Rider]

Either that or they just really wanted a quick exit out of this game, which I'm more than happy to give to them.

[Servant Rider]

We're still at E-2, I belbelieve.

But yes, you're more than welcome to hammer yourself.

[Servant Rider]

Same.

[Servant Rider]

Lancer, please hammer.

[Servant Rider]

Avenger probably called it off because it became obvious there was no towncred for him to gain there with the way people were reacting to their ability and they were going to get eliminated. Also because other players were berating them for using it in the first place when the original Berserker had someone else scheduled to be flipped.

Please hammer.

[Servant Rider]

I think it's Beast, but I literally just woke up and am not in the mood to explain anything I haven't already done so in a previous post (see 855).

I'm sorry Avenger wasn't scum. I'm bad and couldn't help myself from chasing after the shiny.

[Servant Rider]

rider needs to explain himself

Aside from Avenger being overtly scummy to me, what would you like for me to explain?

[Servant Rider]

Avenger's role pm explicitly implies the existence of a detective type.

Yes, but with town-killing roles, this doesn't mean the 'detective' type necessarily has to be town.

[Servant Rider]

New information pending, I'm fine with Caster, Lancer, and Assassin being off the table.

[Servant Rider]

I mean you were basically the only person trying to prevent Foreigner from being wagoned D2 and insisted that Avenger was scum, which in retrospect seems like the most obvious scum motivation to me since Avenger was town

I feel as though most of this depends on the idea that I have to be scum because I was wrong, and that town cannot be wrong.

I still struggle understanding why things played out the way the did. I feel as though a lot of Avenger's posts were not great, and I struggled seeing scum failing to push a single town-wagon in response to three of their own (and only three of their own, as I'm pretty sure we never wagoned a townie other than Avenger during their gladiate) being wagoned all of Day 1. For me, it made more sense for Foreigner to be the scum-designated counterwagon to two separate scum-wagons rather than scum just letting town wagon all of them. Avenger also gladiated Foreigner in the face of a Moon Cancer elimination, and of the three flipped roles, I felt as though Moon Cancer probably had the strongest role of the three and would've been (at least from a mechanical standpoint) the best teammate to defend as that role has the best opportunity to deal with a mod-confirmed townie from Night 2 onwards, and from my perspective, I thought it was possible Moon Cancer and Foreigner were just involved in a long cross-bus up to that point, so that's why I thought I still thought Avenger could be scum even with a Foreigner flip.

Not to mention Avenger completely flubbed their claim (they only mentioned the miller portion originally and only included the killer part after Beast claimed their detective ability), and some of their reads seemed like they were just thrown out with little to no care or reasoning.

I felt like Avenger was obvscum with all this in mind, but clearly, I was living in my own little wonderland.

[Servant Rider]

and from my perspective, I thought it was possible Moon Cancer and Foreigner were just involved in a long cross-bus up to that point, so that's why I thought I still thought Avenger could be scum even with a Foreigner flip.

This should say Avenger and Foreigner, not Moon Cancer and Foreigner.

[Servant Rider]

Beast, how were your results returned to you regarding Caster and Foreigner?

[Servant Rider]

I feel very strongly that Alter Ego isn't scum this game.

Idk. At this point, I can't say I have an issue with the plan to eliminate Rider + Beast to end the game.

[Servant Rider]

I semi turned my brain off yesterday because nothing besides avenger made sense as scum to me. None of Rider/Alter/Beast make sense as scum to me today either. And of course, Lancer is town from avenger and Caster is now more strongly confirmed as well per beast.

I think it's important to think about mass-claiming at this point. A lot of information is out there and there's not much else to lose.

If that's what people want, I don't mind mass-claiming.

However, the only person I can see being scum right now, barring new information, is Beast.

Anyhow, unless someone has something specific they want to talk about, I'll return after Caster checks in.

[Servant Rider]

I just feel very confident in my reads.

Which may seem silly, considering how wrong I was on Avenger, but that's just how it is.

Also, it's not that I believe Alter Ego is more likely to be town than myself (I don't believe I've ever implied this), I just think Beast is the final scum here. I ignored Beast yesterday because I only had space for one scumread, and I just thought Avenger was far more likely to be scum than Beast.

[Servant Rider]

I do not think that Alter should be cleared for being mean to Foreigner near the end. If that's being weighed. I'm not sure if others are.

Idk what you're referring to.

For example, when Lancer was like, "based on what happened with Moon cancer, Foreigner should be cleared"

instead of just giggling in my scum PT

, I was like, "actually, no" Alter played similarly.

Freudian slip?

[Servant Rider]

My noble phantasm allows me to check two players and learn whether at least one of the two players has access to a private topic.

I know the exact number of 'good-aligned' players that exist in this game. If I target a 'good-aligned' player with my noble phantasm, I gain an additional and separate result that pertains specifically to that player.

I have a two shot bulletproof I can activate during the day that lasts for three night phases.

I have a lightning rod ability I can activate at night that causes all investigative actions to target me. I earn one charge for my noble phantasm for each ability that is manipulated in this way.

I would like Beast to claim next.

[Servant Rider]

Except Lancer and Caster.
They really don't need to claim. It just benefits the scum team I think. I guess it might help, because it might make other roles less plausible. But, I guess what I mean to say is that they should go last and they should feel free to fudge their claims to hold advantage so to speak.

Mostly right now, besides hunting, I'm thinking about how to achieve two eliminations on the most probable scum without losing an elimination by getting eliminated myself. Pretty much, I want to do the opposite of what Rider is doing, because if I'm wrong again I'd like another shot rather than getting killed for being wrong again. Which results in a sort of blame game or, 'you're responsible for being wrong, so if we lose because I voted you, it's on you"
and yeah, it's on me, from a justice or fairness perspective but from the perspective of win condition it leaves a lot to be desired.

Also, just from a self-case perspective, I've self-cased and Alter has self-cased but Rider just argued that they were wrong and they were being suspected for that, which is slightly different. I'd like Rider to self-case and tbh, for Assassin to self case.

Sometimes I get burnt because I push at people in comfortable positions, but I'm just trying to solve and make sure the corners are clear. So I hope Alter and Assassin do not push back (too) hard for me questioning them.

With that out of the way.

I don't think Alter is cleared. I still think they're town because as mentioned there were decision points where they just defaulted right back onto scum when they had reason not to.

For example, when Lancer was like, "based on what happened with Moon cancer, Foreigner should be cleared" instead of just giggling in my scum PT, I was like, "actually, no" Alter played similarly.

Assassin has intentionally played a certain way. But I feel like they have no results to show for it, which, kind of sucks tbh. I don't think a clear should be relied on here. They require a closer look.

I'm kinda just draft posting today. I'm busy with other stuff.

These are scummy posts and continue to cement my scumread of this slot.

[Servant Rider]

It's a one-shot ability, that gives me two shots of protection, and expires three night phases after activation.

I didn't use my lightning rod ability on Night 1 in the event Berserker's noble phantasm was an investigative ability as I didn't want to interfere with their action. I didn't use it on Night 2 because there was only one scum left and I didn't see a point in meddling with other player's investigative actions. On Night 3, there weren't enough 'good-aligned' players left for me to warrant usage of my lightning rod ability (and I wasn't sure if there were even going to be any investigative abilities to manipulate anyway).

I didn't run for master because I was busy when the game opened, and I was unsure how useful my Noble Phantasm would be. Other players also wanted it more than me, Assassin claimed a very strong 'cop-like' ability and I didn't see any red flags regarding their play up to the point I voted for them, and later on Berserker seemed fine enough as a selection for master when I realized I wouldn't be active enough to do a good job as town leader at that point in the game and I probably wouldn't of gotten elected at that point even if I wanted it.

I will explain why those posts are scummy after we finish the massclaim.

[Servant Rider]

I wouldn't be surprised if there was a decent amount of investigative abilities in this setup. I'm less concerned with whether someone claims one than whether I think the person claiming it is town.

I was pretty clearly in the group of players that believed there was a decent amount of investigative actions in the game.

Why wouldn't you want to interfere with an investigate to clear yourself? Were you one of the players that cast doubt on there being multiple investigatives? I forgot whether you were one of those players in that camp or not.

With as many town players left and how Day 2 played out, I figured there would be a decent chance someone would feel the need to investigate me regardless. I don't see the point in manipulating multiple players just to clear myself when there's only one scum left.

[Servant Rider]

being busy is fair. Your ability would have been quite powerful because you could probably use your noble phantasm twice. It wouldn't have been broken or anything but pretty good, probably.

Yes, I believe my role was designed with this in mind. Unfortunately, it landed in my hands and the timing for the opening of the game couldn't have been worse for me.

I don't mind how things played out, though, as I feel like there are other roles that would have worked just as well or better as Master. If notscience hadn't altslipped, I feel like that probably would've been the best option for Master (especially since they were immune to investigative actions, and a killing role is another, albeit roundabout, way to find someone's alignment).

[Servant Rider]

'Roundabout' is probably not the best word. 'Very direct' is probably the most appropriate description.

[Servant Rider]

My NP is available today. I will be using it on whomever we don't eliminate that's still a viable scum candidate.

I can't help but think I'm going to die horribly tonight as my NP is probably the most threatening of the lot, and was hoping their was still a protective role. But either way I'll be out of Beast's eliminate pool right quick!

This is exciting!

I don't believe there's any real reason why you should be in anyone's scumpool right now, but as long as you pick someone within [Rider, Beast, Alter Ego], we should be fine. This actually narrows things down quite a bit and I believe puts us in auto-win territory?

[Servant Rider]

This claim is actually an interesting bomb shell.
Could you claim your actions, I noticed you did not and that is problematic.

1. Since the bullet proof is activated during the day phase he could use his lightning rod ability, but my ability wasn't redirected either night.
2. This also creates a seemingly confusing contradiction. I recall Rider not believing my investigation ability. Foreigner also claimed to watch/track me, which would have been redirected to rider and he would have known that too.
3. I might be recalling incorrectly, but didn't they ask me a specific question as to whether my ability said whether the target's name was mentioned? Or was that someone else? this is really interesting. This shows more internal consistency however because it shows that they had been playing toward their role for most of the game. This doesn't necessarily point to town for quite a few reasons however. Other scum also tried to role play their roles consistently from a town POV, specifically saber had tried this. Nobody bought it, but they had tried to follow this and largely didn't lie about their abilities. Riders comments throughout the game follow a similar pattern, I don't think this is scummy without thinking about it further.

However, the question becomes why didn't they jump down my throat earlier? They would have arguably had a guilty or equivalent with my Foreigner check. But didn't do anything with it, if I recall they defended foreigner, but then they flipped scum and this didn't change their mind any. Could you explain further, what was going through your mind throughout the game Rider? From he beginning of the game to the present?

I don't believe I properly responded to this post.

It wasn't the detective ability I didn't believe, it was your "I know Shielder is town" ability.

I've been scumreading you for most of this game, and I feel like I've made this apparent with the exception of Day 3 when I was convinced it was Avenger. No, I didn't jump down your throat after you claimed your detective ability. I don't understand why you think I would have.

Regarding my Lightning Rod ability, I will add more context. I know there are exactly 6 "good-aligned" Servants in this game. I didn't use my ability Night 1 because I didn't want to interfere with Berserker in the event their Noble Phantasm was an investigative ability. Even with Ruler being killed at the beginning of Night 2, I was a little bit excited because even with two "good-aligned" Servants flipped, there were still four more viable "good-aligned" targets and only two scum left. With two more flipping at the end of Day 2, and only one scum being left in the game, I didn't feel as though it was worth attempting to gain charges for my Noble Phantasm (which is a ***** ability) and potentially interfering with multiple players' abilities to only clear myself when there is the potential to clear multiple players at once. After Archer flipped on Day 3, I lost interest in attempting to charge my Noble Phantasm because I knew there was only one "good-aligned" Servant left (and based on who I thought it was, didn't think it would do much for my result), and I thought an Avenger flip would end the game anyway. After finding out I was wrong on Avenger, and with Berserker and Lancer saying they thought it was me in the game thread on Night 3, I figured I'd probably be the primary target for investigations even without my ability, and I still don't think it's worth potentially interfering with multiple players just to clear myself when there's only one scum left and a mislim available.

[Servant Rider]

Mrs. Crane was the only caster servant that I thought might come away clear in an investigate because she liked clothes, so I thought "maybe she could change her clothes after they got blood on them" Twas' a passing thought.

I'm narrowing my focus to Assassin, Alter, Rider and then need to whittle it down more from there. I'm okay with a mass claim.

The Mrs. Crane comment here isn't real analysis. Just flavor-spec hoping to expand the elimination pool.

Except Lancer and Caster.
They really don't need to claim. It just benefits the scum team I think. I guess it might help, because it might make other roles less plausible. But, I guess what I mean to say is that they should go last

and they should feel free to fudge their claims to hold advantage so to speak.

There's no town-motivation in making this post. All this does is incentivize other players to add confusion to the analysis for them.

Assassin from a role perspective I couldn't clear. It seems based off of the scum roles revealed so far there isn't a replication of roles in terms of scum roles. There was a machoizer and a strong man. Assassins I can see just from a thematic stand point getting past a role blocker. However, based on the roles revealed so far if there is a redirector it would have to be the last scum and I'm pretty sure that:
1. A redirector has lower priority than a role blocker so their action would fail even if they redirected caster. 2. The kill would need to be guranteed to come from assassin based on the information we have.

It should be noted that the scum team's NP seems to have been all 4 stars, but unless assassin had an extra boost as part of their own abilities none of their abilities that would have allowed for a boost a NP even a 3* wouldn't have charged by the night they would need to have to get through a role block.

Pretty much the only universe where Assassin is scum is one where they can kill with an innate ability (no NP, or a really low cost NP which I find unlikely) or some sort of passive that alters how abilities effect them.

Beast, how were your results returned to you regarding Caster and Foreigner?

Cabd told me in my notes PT, they used the player's name and then stated whether the player had killed anyone this game. Both were negatives.

I clarified with Cabd over night that he hadn't made an error by naming Caster. (I couldn't have been blocked as an investigative without being informed of it, due to the nature of requiring a result). He said it was intentionally worded that way. So, I wasn't redirected. Pretty much.

I performed a night action on Assassin last night, it worked so he is not Ascetic.

Uh I don't really know what to do now except I guess re-read?

I'm going to be really impressed with whoever the last scum is

Through Beast's own analysis, Assassin makes no sense as a scum-candidate right now. Especially if they believe their own results in indicating Caster to be cleared as well. So to Beast, Caster and Assassin should be the players without any real consideration here.

-Through Beast's result, Caster cannot be scum because their result strongly indicates that Caster hasn't made a kill as the last scum. Regardless of Beast's alignment, Caster cannot be scum.
-Caster claims Assassin cannot be ascetic through night actions by confirming with a separate ability, and roleblocked Assassin on a night where there was both a Nightkill and only one scum left. So if Beast's own abilities and results are to be believed, and their analysis regarding redirector's and roleblockers hold any weight, then Assassin shouldn't be on the table for Beast either.

Except he only takes Lancer off the table, which I feel is the weakest of the clears mechanically, but Beast has been buddying that slot since pretty much the beginning of the game.

Mostly right now, besides hunting, I'm thinking about how to achieve two eliminations on the most probable scum without losing an elimination by getting eliminated myself. Pretty much, I want to do the opposite of what Rider is doing, because if I'm wrong again I'd like another shot rather than getting killed for being wrong again. Which results in a sort of blame game or, 'you're responsible for being wrong, so if we lose because I voted you, it's on you"
and yeah, it's on me, from a justice or fairness perspective but from the perspective of win condition it leaves a lot to be desired.

Also, just from a self-case perspective, I've self-cased and Alter has self-cased but Rider just argued that they were wrong and they were being suspected for that, which is slightly different. I'd like Rider to self-case and tbh, for Assassin to self case.

Sometimes I get burnt because I push at people in comfortable positions, but I'm just trying to solve and make sure the corners are clear. So I hope Alter and Assassin do not push back (too) hard for me questioning them.

With that out of the way.

I don't think Alter is cleared. I still think they're town because as mentioned there were decision points where they just defaulted right back onto scum when they had reason not to.

For example, when Lancer was like, "based on what happened with Moon cancer, Foreigner should be cleared" instead of just giggling in my scum PT, I was like, "actually, no" Alter played similarly.

Assassin has intentionally played a certain way. But I feel like they have no results to show for it, which, kind of sucks tbh. I don't think a clear should be relied on here. They require a closer look.

I'm kinda just draft posting today. I'm busy with other stuff.

There are so many issues with this post.

First off, it's clear that Beast's modus operandi for today, to which they've pretty much already laid the groundwork for starting in this post (the first paragraph no less), is to survive. They've pretty much told us to our face that their main goal is to find two players that are better eliminations than them today. Not the player that is most likely to be scum, mind you, but two players that Beast thinks they can get eliminated so that they won't be.

Then, despite their prior analysis, and no reasonable explanation to go back on it, Beast suddenly states that the clear on Assassin shouldn't be relied upon. Which makes no sense, and once again, leads me to believe they're just trying desperately to expand the elimination pool.

Also in this post, is them requesting both Alter Ego and Assassin to not push back (too hard). This is particularly egregious because it continues to play into their narrative that expanding the elimination pool is good, so long as Beast isn't in it. It's okay for Beast to push other players, but despite other players potentially needed to check their own angles (so to speak), that they should only go easy on them.

The funniest thing in this post is them mentioning having a scum PT. They claim it was just for comparison's sake, although no matter how much I look at it, I don't know why a town-aligned player would ever feel the need to say such a thing or even bring that up, and I feel like they just slipped. But I don't really feel like focusing on it that much.

VOTE: Rider

Is my response to rider's posts. If you just want to go for surface, least charitable interpretations. I'm just going to automatically assume you're scum phoning it in instead of hunting.

Abilities.
1. Shielder is town. Merlin isn't in the game.
2. I could body guard shielder every night. However, I could not use my two shot investigate at the same time. I was asking abou how their death worked to see if I could revive them or bodyguard them post death, but nope.
3. 2-shot investigate -> Investigated Foreigner N1. Investigated Caster night 2.

My NP is a **** ability, it confirms both players's alignment of the targets I investigated. This is probably to get past any doubts if Investigated a player and got a negative result because they specifically hadn't used their night kill. Based on what I know, I believe the only way for me to use this NP (and it wouldn't tell us much, since I do think Caster, just probably doesn't have an obscure ability to come up clean on an investigate post-kill) is if we no kill. one day.

Ah, yes, she did. She answered my question about mrs. Crane.

I think I want to go Rider. If the game doesn't end, no elimination to narrow the pool. Then show down with Alter. I might be okay with skipping the no lim phase depending on what happens to assassin. Since there's only one scum left I don't have to worry about collaboration weirdness which should introduce some interesting and hopefully AI responses.

The request for a No-Kill makes no sense with regards to his abilities and the circumstances surrounding his results. What? Does he suddenly have some reason to question his investigation result that should reasonably clear Caster despite:
1. There only being one scum at the time they investigated Caster.
2. No reasonable reason to believe their result can't be trusted (According to Beast, Cabd explicitly stated Caster did not make the kill that night).

What does 'No-Killing to slim down the pool' really achieve? We have three players (Caster, Assassin, Lancer) that we can reasonably take off the table. So all this does is allow scum to take a free shot at one of those three players. Not to mention scum could be hiding a Noble Phantasm that allows for an extra kill and potentially end the game despite us being at even numbers here.

No, regardless of what happens today, we should definitely

not

No-Kill.

[Servant Rider]

I believe Lancer is actually the most mechanically clear unless I missed something big because Avenger said the mod confirmed to him that Lancer was town. I really hope VFP's reading acuity is not so bad as to get that wrong.

I have Lancer as the weakest clear mechanically. I'm just trusting VFP's judgment there, partially because I feel like Lancer's play this game has been fairly consistently town.

I feel as though the only reason Alter Ego is even being considered here is because there are three players ahead of them mechanically. If I were to rank the players in terms of towniness based on play, it would be something like

Alter Ego
Lancer

Caster/Assassin

Beast

[Servant Rider]

but yes it is strange that beast gets both information on a starting clear + an investigative role + an ability that flavorwise is in sheilder's department. That said, Cabd definitely has taken pains to defy expectations for the power levels of abilities and NPs, so outguessing the mod in that area is quite difficult.

Not to mention Beast has also claimed information regarding a character that can't be in this game, which would have overlap with Avenger utility-wise.

[Servant Rider]

2. I could body guard shielder every night. However, I could not use my two shot investigate at the same time. I was asking abou how their death worked to see if I could revive them or bodyguard them post death, but nope.
3. 2-shot investigate -> Investigated Foreigner N1. Investigated Caster night 2.

I'm highly skeptical of the decision to investigate Foreigner here (when there were still two scum left) over protecting Shielder after claiming Shielder was confirmed town to them (unprompted no less) and on a night where Berserker couldn't die.

[Servant Rider]

the mod tells a person I’m town. how is that weaker mechanically than investigative clears which can be bypassed with abilities? Unless this game is bastard, a friendly neighbor, equivalent to an IC >>>>>>>>> any other clear

Probably because scum messengers are a thing.

It depends on the nature of how they were informed, but it's not something that we can verify ourselves and they've already been flipped, so we just have to trust their word for it at this point.

Like I said, I think you're townier by play, just that I don't hold your 'clear' in as high regard as the others, and it's not like you're going to be eliminated anyways.

[Servant Rider]

It's a big red flag that Rider is making a case based on my posts right now, than my posts throughout the game.

There continues to be a lack of back and forth that was present in their earlier analysis in the game.

I've been talking about you all game.

[Servant Rider]

Yeah, but you're not picking over the scraps that you overlooked the first time.

What are you talking about?

Nor are you weighing evidence that contradicts your own narrative. Like you've done earlier.

Also, no, I really should not have protected Shielder when I had two investigates to go through. @_@

What do you think I should be considering that contradicts my narrative?

I mean, when the confirmed townie "Berserker" couldn't be killed on Night 1, and you went out of your way to out your supposed confirmed innocent of Shielder for no reason, then yeah, I do think you should've protected Shielder that night.

Especially when the alternative didn't even guarantee a fruitful result even if you managed to hit scum.

[Servant Rider]

You've still failed to mention what exactly I should be considering that contradicts my narrative. I'm also at the point where I don't see my reads changing barring some gamebreaking analysis.

However, with the way the 'clears' are playing, I don't really feel that motivated to give much more effort than I already have and am mostly just hoping to get eliminated today so I don't have to watch them continue to mosey around.

Have you ever interacted in real time with any of the members of the scum team rider? I'm trying to remember if you have.

No idea, actually. Probably not.

[Servant Rider]

I feel like it's a pretty solid scum iso, and I applaud you for it.

[Servant Rider]

Whoa there. Careful with the 'b' word. We wouldn't want the others to get the wrong idea.

[Servant Rider]

So I was going to case Beast's Day 1 play this game, because calling Beast scum over and over again has become my new favorite hobby.

But the interactions pointed out by Caster in 2321 has me curious.

If they're town they're a worthless POS who deserved to die anyway.

If they're town they're a worthless POS who deserved to die anyway.

do it few more times and enjoy your loss

Boo hoo, you fucking baby. How hard is it to claim your role when asked?

Go put your head in trashcan.

It is not hard and you enjoy doing things without reasoning.

Mainly in that I don't understand why this interaction exists between these two. Particularly the bolded part.

I feel like at this point I just want it to be Beast, because I think their interactions still look really bad, especially on Day 1, but I guess there's actually a universe where I could be wrong.

[Servant Rider]

I guess 2057 could maybe make sense from a perspective where Alter Ego decided to actively go against their own scumteam to deepwolf this game (supporting Berserker over Saber, bussing Moon Cancer, leading wagon on Saber, eventual support for a Foreigner elimination over Avenger on Day 2).

I don't know how much I actually believe that though.

[Servant Rider]

Alter Ego's early Day 1 play feels so town though.

[Servant Rider]

Alter Ego hit some of the things that's been bothering me about Beast this game.

Although I'd like to add that I've been leery of the way Beast was attacking players that didn't support the Saber wagon early on (Archer, Alter Ego), mainly in that it seemed as though Beast was attempting to discredit them without actually saying why they were wrong or scummy (more of a "you're bad or can't be trusted if you don't support the Saber wagon" sort of feeling). I still think Alter Ego came away much townier to me in their Day 1 altercation in that it felt as though Beast was provoking Alter Ego and trying to play it off as though Alter Ego was just overreacting and being unreasonable. Also, Beast and Saber were both trying to spin the narrative that Berserker was not a good candidate for Mastership because scum were clearly trying to keep it away from Saber, but when pressed on it, neither of them were able to name any suspects.

The main reason why I didn't believe the claimed ability regarding Shielder from Beast was the timing of it. It came around the time the Berserker wagon was looking to be consensus choice for Master. And the vanity vote seemed like a weak attempt in pulling the wagon away from someone who really wanted the ability and most people thought was town (although I don't believe Berserker ever indicated what their ability would be, which, in a sense, can be incredibly threatening to scum as they don't know how to play around it) to someone that was barely or not around or didn't show any indication of wanting to be the Master (i.e. Shielder). It's also why I'm not a huge fan of their early play around Lancer, which seemed like a weak attempt at buddying a player that also didn't really care either way for becoming Master (which means this person probably wouldn't be a huge threat if elected). The Foreigner quote defending Beast's vanity vote continues to make me think scum were probably interested in moving the Mastership wagon away from Berserker, or at the very least stalling it.

The lack of care regarding Shielder on Night 1 is particularly alarming for me because I feel like they were set up to be killed to make Beast's claim more believable.

The whole thing regarding Beast shifting his read around against Foreigner could easily just have been Beast trying to find more reasons to be townread (claim detective when players were indicating there would probably be a decent amount of investigatives in this setup) and Foreigner falling on the sword for Beast to gain more credibility.

[Servant Rider]

Does anyone believe Moon Cancer would lay out all their scumbuddies in a POE like that?

[Servant Rider]

He kept the three remaining players that could be scum

at or near the bottom half of their reads list

, with his two other partners near the absolute bottom.
So, yes?

In that post, I'm on the null-line and you're above it?

[Servant Rider]

I will take solace in the fact that notscience was able to see the goodness in my posting when many others couldn't see any (although these players couldn't see the evilness in my posts either, so I guess they just don't know how to read me).

[Servant Rider]

He kept the three remaining players that could be scum

at or near the bottom half of their reads list

, with his two other partners near the absolute bottom.
So, yes?

In that post, I'm on the null-line and you're above it?

Yes, I'm not scum though, so. Like. Yes, that's what they did.

So if you're not one of these three players, who's the third player that can be scum here?

[Servant Rider]

I also ask at that point in time, in light of notscience's scumread on Beast, whether he outs that clear on Shielder at the moment he did. I felt at that point in time that Shielder was obvious burn-bait if they were town due to their low level of contribution. The fact that it was a hard roleclaim seemed to me like an utterly insane and possibly game-losing gambit for scum to make at the time.

Do you still believe this? Or has your stance on this changed?

[Servant Rider]

This may come as a surprise, but I'd like Lancer to fullclaim.

[Servant Rider]

Lancer said I could ask for their claim if I wanted it.

That you have a friendly neighbor ability.

Why would your area of doubt be on me naming my ability and not on, say, whether Avenger is lying?

-----------

Q. Why didn't you send the message to berserker?

my ability is conditional on something so I didn't want to risk the condition failing on Berserker, and Ruler seemed like the obvious NK to me. Avenger was the only other person that I could be reasonably sure the condition would work on.

--------------

I feel like I’m being pretty wishy-washy. It’s probably still better if I’m not selected, although I won’t say no if we’re prioritizing trying to hit town. I feel like I’ll be pretty obvtown which is good for that, but also I’ll be obvtown regardless and don’t need the master to confirm me per se.

I feel like you may have alluded to it early on here? Which gives some credibility to your claim for me.

I thought you were probably town anyway.

yes, that's why I didn't care about being master. I knew I could be confirmed anyway.

Why would your area of doubt be on me naming my ability and not on, say, whether Avenger is lying?

I don't really understand this question.

If you hadn't outright claimed your ability, I would question it more. And I outright even said I don't think this setup is capable of producing that many clears, or at least not as easily as some would like to believe.

However, you did outright claim your ability, and it seems to make sense with your early play. And I felt like you were likely to be town even without this ability.

Avenger isn't really in a position to lie about your ability, even if he were scum. However, there is plenty for him to gain for him by telling the truth, especially since he was probably already in the hot seat as it were.

As far as the setup goes, we have:

-Potential to modconfirm a townie with a mechanic that definitely leans more toward the town (see: Berserker)

-A claimed Friendly Neighbor (that seems to be gated in some way)

-A super-cop-like NP that Assassin is claiming to have

-An informed townie that knows another player has to be town

Not to mention what else could be in this setup.

Considering the stomp of a game that was the previous FGO, do you really think Cabd feels like town needs all this basically free help to overpower and beat the scumteam?

Of the three I bolded, two of them also seem to require the town to be able to earn with decent play in some way. The last one was claimed by Beast, and I still think he's lying about it.

the only way you think I might not actually be confirmed town is if you think Avenger and I are scum together, as this game is explicitly not bastard. It shouldn't matter what my ability is or isn't.

that was @berserker

my being conftown shouldn't depend on my ability, it should depend on whether or not you think Avenger is lying. it doesn't matter if it's my ability or if it's a random person's ability

imo, Lancer is confirmed town in every scenario, unless the team is exactly Avenger+Lancer, which seems like too silly of an idea to entertain, even if Avenger does flip scum.

right. it literally doesn't matter what my ability is or what ability caused Avenger to receive the message. unless you think Avenger is lying about receiving the message (and that Avenger and I are scum together), I should be confirmed town. that's why it's weird to me that Rider is talking about believing my ability being the reason to think I'm town. it just straight up should not matter.

When I was looking back at other posts, I remembered this interaction with Lancer and how it rubbed me the wrong way at the time.

I felt like Lancer was mostly just interested in being treated as confirmed town rather than letting others understand where it was coming from. Obviously, I don't hold his ability in as high regard as the other "clears", and have stated so, and a lot of it has to do with his attitude around it.

Specifically the part about how Lancer kept trying to shut down me questioning the source of why Avenger thought they were town. The basic argument was "well if Avenger is town, then I must be as well, nothing else should matter" and I still find it incredibly grating.

yep, his defense of foreigner and insistence on scum!avenger is I think the most suspicious out of the players remaining. I agree with rider next

I don’t think caster and assassin are 100% cleared either - given avenger’s flip, it’s possible that scum also have abilities that fool detectives or whatever beast is, or used an ability on assassin that prevented him from being blocked. I also don’t put a ton of stock in caster saying beast is town because “why would scum!beast clear players,” because on D2 he did attempt to clear foreigner. (actually, because beast said he had cleared foreigner, I assumed that there were only two scum left, not three, otherwise how would beast know that foreigner was 100% cleared from his action? But there were actually three scum left at that time, so foreigner should not have been cleared at that time just based on the action. I think this is somewhat scum-indicative for beast?)

Of course it’s possible that alter is deepwolfing, but I think that’s unlikely given he had the same reaction as me to avenger in real time?

And then in twilight, Lancer completely shuts down Caster and Assassin as potential clears, but based on the way they speak, seems to think they should still be treated as confirmed town.

And then Lancer also finds a way to shade pretty much every other player as a potential locktown in the span of the same post.

Berserker dying after Lancer sets up Rider + Beast eliminations is something I also find particularly disconcerting. Especially considering it feels like Lancer is content to phone it in as Alter, Beast, and I argue it out (although earlier it was mostly just me and Beast).

Funny enough, the comment about Beast is incorrect as there were two scum left when Beast claimed their result on Foreigner.

the mod tells a person I’m town. how is that weaker mechanically than investigative clears which can be bypassed with abilities? Unless this game is bastard, a friendly neighbor, equivalent to an IC >>>>>>>>> any other clear

I'm still not huge on this as I feel like there are other roles that can replicate a message being sent to another player. But seeing as how Lancer kept shutting down the discussion surrounding it, and seemed fairly sensitive to it, it's hard to know.

I mean you were basically the only person trying to prevent Foreigner from being wagoned D2 and insisted that Avenger was scum, which in retrospect seems like the most obvious scum motivation to me since Avenger was town

While Lancer is right that I was very much in favor of eliminating Avenger, and against a wagon on Foreigner for wagon dynamics, I feel like this comment is very disingenuous after looking back through their iso.

Spoiler:

I'm back here: VOTE: moon cancer

I think foreigner is town.

I think foreigner and saber both voting moon cancer and then both becoming counterwagons to moon cancer is probably town-indicative for them and scum-indicative for moon cancer, on average. (although saber could still be scum, I think moon cancer is most likely of the 3 to be scum regardless of saber's alignment). I thought saber's NP stuff was a bit oblivious and have no idea whether that's intentional or not, but on second thought I don't think I think it's inherently scummy.

Pretty much everyone has Avenger in their nullscum tiers (except for like, Saber, which I feel like could be partner-indicative for Avenger & Saber) and yet no one has voted him. So I'm fine voting there too.

Saber also had some fencesitting hesitation over voting moon cancer so I could easily see that be a bussing vote.

I'm not interested in moving off Saber when they haven't really responded to the votes on them or being wagoned at all. Also, the narrative of them being a "counterwagon" to Moon Cancer doesn't really track - 3 of the voters on Saber were common ith the ones on Moon Cancer - Me, Lancer, and Rider.

It is, however, notably ironic that I'm apparently Moon Cancer's biggest scumread but they have no probably sheeping me on both Berserker and Saber.

ah, I didn’t look at wagon comp at all.

I’m fine with yeeting any of my bottom 4 reads, I don’t have that strong of a preference for moon caster. I just feel like that slot has done nothing town at all and deserves more pressure at least.

Foreigner is town. Berserker had them as town. Berserker had just announced that moon cancer was going to be his chosen first elim.

This gladiate is either the most anti-town shit you could have pulled, or just scum.

Foreigner is town. Berserker had them as town. Berserker had just announced that moon cancer was going to be his chosen first elim.

This gladiate is either the most anti-town shit you could have pulled, or just scum.

I want to point out here that Berzerker is mentioned when giving the read on foreigner because they are confirmed town, correct?
Meaning that that view is genuine and there for should be listened to.

So if I am to flip town, where does this leave the read in your view? Given that my thoughts are equally as geniuen.

I mentioned Berserker because you took an action that explicitly undermined his views as town leader for what seems like a bad reason compared to the opportunity you had to gladiate saber who should be near-confirmed scum to you. I also trust his reads, but the main point here is that this action is inherently anti-town for opposing the town leader and forcing the elim like this.

I am still pretty sure Foreigner is town. I don't really think your alignment impacts my read. My scumread on you is entirely independent of your target.

Now when you say moon cancer's posts are not scummy, can you explain specifically why you don't think moon cancer's read on alter is scummy?

like I said, I was super confused but I didn't really care about your claim enough to figure out what you were actually saying. because my plan, and berserker's plan, and literally the whole townbloc's plan, was to solve in moon cancer/saber.

Now when you say moon cancer's posts are not scummy, can you explain specifically why you don't think moon cancer's read on alter is scummy?

Because there's nothing for me to really go by on it.
I just don't read Moon as scummy though.

I want you to comment on moon's read on alter. And why you don't think it's scummy.

I don't understand the read. Why would that make it scummy?
Be it, Moon is probably right with the read.

Moon cancer voted alter because he was getting "too townread" and then when asked for more reasons, referred everyone to their ISO, which only contained "Alter thinks too much and their reads have too much uncertainty" which is very much not how I would characterize Alter's posts. Explain why you think this is not scum-indicative.

Well it starts saying that Ego has too much uncertainty. That's different to just town read.
I'm not sure why I'd directly find this scummy rather than Null?

Just because someone has a reason which isn't great doesn't mean it's scummy. Otherwise foreigner's original scum read on me should be one the favoured. But yet, we're here.

so why is foreigner scummy but moon cancer isn't?

I mean, you've gladiated foreigner and diverted an elim away from moon cancer so it stands to reason that you think moon cancer isn't scummy. You also literally said you're not scumreading moon cancer. So I'm asking you what the difference is between the two that leads to scumreading foreigner but not moon cancer. how is that a loaded question?

why is moon cancer elimbait but foreigner isn't?


do you think moon cancer's wagon was scum-driven or that there were 2 or more scum on it?

scum bus each other all the time. are you saying you'd never willingly vote with the bus on scum?

ah whatever VOTE: moon cancer

that's E-1, back to where we were 12 hours ago

With 14 players alive, it will take 8 votes to burn a servant.

Foreigner (4): Avenger, Beast, Ruler, Moon Cancer
Saber (4): Alter Ego, Rider, Lancer, Archer
Moon Cancer (2): Foreigner, Saber

Deadline: (expired on 2021-07-12 00:17:51)


Page Usage: 7/42

foreigner seems to be the pretty clearly designated counterwagon to moon cancer (formed before the saber wagon)
saber's wagon should be all town here. moon cancer and shielder joined later.

I'm not super confident that saber will flip scum either, but I highly prefer saber elim over foreigner. Foreigner appeared to be the designated scum counterwagon, and shouldn't be on the table after moon cancer scumflip.

As for foreigner, I've just looked at their posts and I find it odd how evenly distributed their addresses to other players are, the general lack of nuance and a confidence that doesn't make sense to me.

This is the only thing you've said that actually describes why you scumread Foreigner

is there anything else?

what makes you think foreigner was bussing?

a large part of it is foreigner being wagoned as moon cancer was getting wagoned

the ISO is honestly not as towny as I thought, but I still think that foreigner being the counterwagon to moon cancer means it's unlikely that foreigner also flips scum. I don't really think it makes much sense for moon cancer to jump onto a scum!foreigner counterwagon to themselves. Avenger and foreigner are 99.9999% not scum together, and Avenger voting foreigner while the moon cancer wagon was building and then gladiating foreigner when the moon cancer was building the second time is scum-indicative for avenger in my opinion. Foreigner was also low enough in the general readslists that I don't think he would be the designated deepwolf and decide to hardbus a scumbuddy who seems to be pretty powerful. On review I don't think this means Foreigner is 100% town, but I think I feel more comfortable eliminating saber. idk.

can you explain what you mean by timing and arguments after the flip? which infractions did you make that they didn't comment on, and why do you think that's AI?

I didn't quote every relevant post as I feel like people can just read through Lancer's iso if they're interested. But as far as I could tell, they were against both Saber and Foreigner wagons (or at the very least not very interested in them) after the Moon Cancer elimination, so I'm not a huge fan of their reasoning for suspecting me here.

I do think it's funny that Lancer calls the Saber wagon a counterwagon to Moon Cancer despite being one of the three players that moved off Moon Cancer to start the flashwagon. It kind of begs the question as to what was going through their mind when they voted Saber there in the first place.

that was me. my ability is conditional on something so I didn't want to risk the condition failing on Berserker, and Ruler seemed like the obvious NK to me. Avenger was the only other person that I could be reasonably sure the condition would work on.

presumably the setup is balanced to account for clears.

Spoiler:

Also sabers getting eliminated ovrr my dead body

literally zero votes on saber... why are you so worked up over people supposedly scumreading saber when there is no wagon?

if you want me to try to explain how I read people, I will, but it sounds like you're going to tell me my methods are wrong so I don't think it's going to be very productive.

I've already mentioned my experience with mastina is very limited.

I've got alot of blind spots, probably to many.

I saw several people voting avenger for "bad play" and " sub optimal plat" and nothing on how the gladiate choice was actually scum motivated away from trading 1 for 1 scum which is dumb play

why me and alter specifically out of those people?

we already talked about this when the gladiate happened. it occurred right as moon cancer was about to be eliminated so it looked like he was trying to save moon cancer, who we now know flipped scum.

Foreigner is town. Berserker had them as town. Berserker had just announced that moon cancer was going to be his chosen first elim.

This gladiate is either the most anti-town shit you could have pulled, or just scum.

I want to point out here that Berzerker is mentioned when giving the read on foreigner because they are confirmed town, correct?
Meaning that that view is genuine and there for should be listened to.

So if I am to flip town, where does this leave the read in your view? Given that my thoughts are equally as geniuen.

I mentioned Berserker because you took an action that explicitly undermined his views as town leader for what seems like a bad reason compared to the opportunity you had to gladiate saber who should be near-confirmed scum to you. I also trust his reads, but the main point here is that this action is inherently anti-town for opposing the town leader and forcing the elim like this.

I am still pretty sure Foreigner is town. I don't really think your alignment impacts my read. My scumread on you is entirely independent of your target.

I also talked about how I could see avenger being town but wasn't going to vote for foreigner so my vote was going to avenger instead, because he (at the time) refused to remove the gladiate.

I've already mentioned my experience with mastina is very limited.

But its enough for you to figure out she was the one behind the slot?

I don't need to have played mafia games with her to recognize her writing style.

how do you believe this line of questioning and resulting information will be useful to you in figuring out my alignment? because right now it seems like you are pursuing this as if you're trying to "gotcha" me.

VOTE: ruler

right. would you like to explain how your scumread on me fits with me being the person to swing the wagon back to moon cancer?

mastina's writing style is incredibly distinctive. I've read a bunch of her posts in discussion and really don't need to have played mafia with her to recognize it.

I've already mentioned my experience with mastina is very limited.

But its enough for you to figure out she was the one behind the slot?

VOTE: lancer i think this is overdue

I've already mentioned my experience with mastina is very limited.

But its enough for you to figure out she was the one behind the slot?

From her firsr post while I'm at it

Er, what? How is recognizing someone's posting style supposed to be scummy?

He’s trying to play the “gotcha” game as if I’ve been caught out in a lie because I said I haven’t played much with mastina but

somehow

recognized her writing immediately. His other reasons for scumreading me are voting avenger (which I’ve already attempted to engage him about and he ignored), and brings up my “positioning around alter” which does not make any sense (I also asked about this and was ignored).

Ruler slot has consistently had takes that I cannot wrap my head around - takes that are so wildly off from where I am. Their view of the game does not make sense to me. Usually when someone is town and I disagree with them, I can at least understand why they are taking the stances they are and where they’re coming from. One example is that Ruler saw Saber’s reasoning for master bid and then was like “yeah this makes sense why Saber wanted NP and why he said he wanted to use it immediately and that it was stronger than a full cop shot,” which is so so so far from where I am in the universe. It would be one thing if Ruler simply said something I disagreed with, but his stances are consistently so far out of the realm of logic to me that I don’t believe it’s town. Scumreading alter and me for pushing avenger, who clearly made a super anti-town play if he was town and derailed a wagon on literally flipped scum, and ignoring everything else about our play, and then adding “alter might just be someone I disagree with” but then “I dislike lancer’s position around alter” does not seem like it can come from town. What’s the difference between me and alter, other than that I’ve been pushing and questioning Ruler? Why is alter someone he “just disagrees with me” but I’m the one positioning around Alter? (Highly disagree with that characterization by the way! Alter called me town first, I do not have any “positioning” around him.)

Finally, when I suspected the slot was mastina, I was okay with not being able to vibe with any of her takes because that’s kind of par for the course on my reading her posts anyway. A second person in the same slot who makes actually no sense to me and whose thoughts I can’t see coming from town has to be more than just coincidence.

Looking back at the end of Day 1, Lancer seemed to at least think Ruler was suspicious enough to vote. However, they also claim they didn't pick Ruler because they seemed like the obvious NK, which doesn't really make much sense to me contextually, and I don't know how much I really believe that.

This isn't a slamdunk scumread or anything. I've just been having second doubts based on a lot of the content being posted on Page 94.

[Servant Rider]

Just let Lancer respond.

[Servant Rider]

The request for a claim isn't directed toward you and they said they would claim if needed.

So unless you want me to go back to tunneling you, kick rocks.

[Servant Rider]

Nothing points to Avenger reading the message they received incorrectly. This is extraneous information and doesn't change the core of Lancer clearing themselves. That a confirmed town member received a message that confirmed that Lancer was town by the mod.

Also, it has less to do with Avenger reading the message incorrectly than the plausibility that it could just be a scum mailman or something.

[Servant Rider]

Ah, I see, he did confirm it wasn't a message sent.

I'm pretty sure I saw that Avenger said that the first time, but I just slid Lancer into the townpile and didn't think much of it afterwards. I'm also reading this game portions right now.

As far as why I would ask the person who was the source of the ability, why wouldn't I? It's called verification. Is Avenger being silly? Can Avenger be misinterpreting it? Like, obviously, Beast understood enough to question the validity of the claim, but you don't, which I don't really get.

[Servant Rider]

Also, no one said it was a friendly neighbor ability until I asked you, so your reaction here is very uncalled for.

[Servant Rider]

you're surprised... that a conftown died......?

It has a lot to do with your attitude this phase in that you're just in the 'let's eliminate Rider + Beast' mode. But you're not actually doing much at all in helping make the determination of who to eliminate first or if you're right at all.

[Servant Rider]

again - if you saw that Avenger confirmed it was a mod confirmation, why would it matter what ability generated the mod confirmation?

Because players are generally morons and like to confirm players as town for bad reasons.

[Servant Rider]

Yes, I get that. And I even said this wasn't a surefire scumread or anything, just that I was having second thoughts and wanted you to clear up some things.

[Servant Rider]

again - if you saw that Avenger confirmed it was a mod confirmation, why would it matter what ability generated the mod confirmation?

Because players are generally morons and like to confirm players as town for bad reasons.

again

... then why wouldn't you be questioning Avenger about the message if you thought he was being a moron?

Because it's easier to just ask the source.

[Servant Rider]

It's not like you were dead.

[Servant Rider]

Or instead of just asking you directly, would you rather I just played 20 questions with Avenger on what he thought it was?

[Servant Rider]

So what? Of course I doubted whether or not you were confirmed town. Why else would I ask about it?

I don't know why this is such a difficult concept for you to grasp.

[Servant Rider]

to me it feels like he's just trying to widen the elimpool

Sure would be nice if you actually started playing the game again.

You're always welcome to just vote me if you think you're too incapable to do so.

[Servant Rider]

If he's that incapable of contributing, he can replace out.

I'm not saying this to be mean.

I get that they may feel like they deserve to be in this game until the end, but at some point when does it just become selfish and disrespectful to the other players.

I understand being too busy to post. I was extremely busy at the beginning of the game but I still found a way to at least post something. But I also knew at some point my schedule would open up, which is why I signed up to begin with.

He calls my case on him trash, but his literal reason for thinking I'm scum are things he's done himself. And if all he plans to do is phone it in until he dies, then I don't know what to say except why even stay in the game?

[Servant Rider]

It's not about his contribution up to this point. Which is why I said I understand if they feel like they deserve to stay until the end.

It's about their ability to contribute now.

Like I said, if they just want to phone it in and hope to get NK'ed, they can just vote to eliminate me. I really don't care.

Otherwise, if they don't feel like they can contribute at all, then why stay?

[Servant Rider]

I didn't tell you to replace out. I told you to eliminate me.