New Year Dance Party [afterparty]

[midwaybear]

hellooo ladies!

[midwaybear]

sorta miss when this setup was 14-3 and I would get carried. We'll make do

[midwaybear]

hellooo ladies!

you’ve finally returned home after all these years...

doc on me

[midwaybear]

18 pages already? help a poor gent catch up anyone

[midwaybear]

thanks
from a really quick skim and I mean really quick, I didn't rlly miss much. It is a dance game but it is honestly a little worrying too
Shiro/Ausuka seems like the only scumhunting happening so far

[midwaybear]

honeslty, I viewed Ausuka's early game as more personality rather than scummy. idk how I feel about shiro yet but Im sussing the people who piled on
but I do like tsq progression on Ausuka

[midwaybear]

I was thinking specifically about ydra and fire. It's a bit odd to me because while I sus both of them for piling on, one of them is most likely town.

[midwaybear]

oh yeah std also popped in saying he liked shirou, but I can't really read that

[midwaybear]

What people think about this

i agree that it wasn't obvious she meant voting, which is maybe a bit odd to me. I think the thought of campaigning for Shirou to be left out would come more naturally than voting out in dance phase.
but then why would she mention voting? I think it could be a weird inconsistency that happens with town?

pedit: im so slowww

[midwaybear]

oh yeah std also popped in saying he liked shirou, but I can't really read that

Was there a question here

Nah, i just noticed you technically also "piled on", but more indirectly. But idk how to read that.
ig if I were to ask, what made you like Shirou? I can't read him rn even though he's making a push.

[midwaybear]

rolling town in this game means that I did not roll scum a single time in 2022

relatable

[midwaybear]

decisions decisions...
VPB, I'm a little sus on your question posed to Shirou in 528. I don't really see what was unclear about what he was saying. So it felt like u were trying to throw him a softball and butter him up.

[midwaybear]

They are crying.

crying for Meuh

[midwaybear]

Buttering up for what?

towncred

[midwaybear]

How does asking a clarifying question get me towncred?

Well, the point of my original question was that I didn't think there was much to clarify, so it seemed like you were offering a fake question to Shirou so then you can inevitably agree with his response. And then it'll make u look like a good town.

[midwaybear]

@Meuh

Actually maybe Ausuka and Irrelephent were being kinda awkward in those first 7 pages.

More amazing takes like that to come after I get my weekly groceries

Seems like I'm not alone after all hmmmm?

Alone in what?

I can't see what is confusing about Shirou's post (Shirou also getting groceries? unlikely). The question doesn't seem real.

[midwaybear]

I mean I could be overthinking a simple question, but I also felt VPB's entrance and posts so far aren't what I expected (I remember VPB as pretty down to business, not overly fluffy)

pedit: i expected u to infer from his wording. but that might be biased with my knowledge that shirou sr ausuka

[midwaybear]

nobody wants to kill a puppy

i see what you did there

[midwaybear]

anyways, im lowkey leaning towards enchant cuz i don't think enchant leaves scumbuddies out to dry with that last post
it's a lvl 1 read but i think it holds here? the thing is, idk if a proposal will be accepted at this time
fine with either Cakez or VPB, just don't have as strong of read on either

[midwaybear]

anyways, im lowkey leaning towards enchant cuz i don't think enchant leaves scumbuddies out to dry with that last post

really? I thought it was kinda heavy-handed AtE to make us feel bad, potentially survivalism - feel like Enchant wouldn't normally care so much and would have just /in'd as a Gent if he was worried about not being able to play past pre-dance. I didn't like his last post

from what I remember, enchant is hard to read, but at least tries to win as both alignments. I think as scum, he probably doesn't give up as quick cuz the buddies are there for support. As town, maybe there's genuine frustration. But yea, I don't typically like making reads based off ATE because it's always hard to tell. I thought in this situation it's more town than NAI.

[midwaybear]

Yea, I mean Enchant hasn't posted since though, so I think it's legit. I don't think it was even clear he was gonna be left out at that point in time which makes it more likely that it's town frustration rather than a scum tactic.

[midwaybear]

I

could

still propose VPB. Not sure why everyone has overlooked UNOwen's just popping in to propose lol
Weird stuff can come from town, but it's also like whaaat

pedit: not anymore lol

[midwaybear]

I think everybody should make it clear who they think should be paired between Enchant/Cakez before midway proposes

don't worry i wont do anything until/if enchant comes back

[midwaybear]

ngl Datisi has been clean with it so far

[midwaybear]

Enchant, would you like to dance?

[midwaybear]

don't want to stall out the day too long
if i throw this im taking another long break
but I didn't rlly want to overthink things.

[midwaybear]

I

could

still propose VPB. Not sure why everyone has overlooked UNOwen's just popping in to propose lol
Weird stuff can come from town, but it's also like whaaat

pedit: not anymore lol

I mean, were you actually going to propose? That doesn't seem like it was likely.

Also, what was weird about Owen from your perspective?

I wasn't going to in that moment, but I might have proposed to you later on.
I dunno. Owen hasn't posted much this game, so it's odd to just see a proposal coming out of nowhere (although there weren't many choices left). Though I think the overall pop-in play might be slightly +town. It's just weird tho.

[midwaybear]

srry nothing personal. just going with who i think is more likely to be town. I think you could be town too, but not as confident as enchant.

[midwaybear]

dang rejected
@GL I don't want to get too bunkered down on a bad read. But I tr Enchant mainly just cuz he gave up way too early too be scum. Also ig looking at ISO, there's a consistent sus on Meuh that might come from town?

[midwaybear]

I don't think Enchant should be the choice because i don't like their current attitude.

as in it's scummy?

[midwaybear]

snip snip

snip snip/quote]
Okay this is just scum, the tone here is horrendous
Either way the pairing goes I want midwaybear dead ASAP

How tho? There's no way ur this confident based on those two posts

[midwaybear]

oops messed that up and also

I mean I could be overthinking a simple question, but I also felt VPB's entrance and posts so far aren't what I expected (I remember VPB as pretty down to business, not overly fluffy)

I think this is bad
midwaybear there brings up having the general stance that VPB's entrance was something to pick apart but specifically went after a basic question he asked. Like if midway's town, they'd just say "VPB's being too fluffy" rather than attack that specific question if that makes any sense?
It feel dishonest and opportunistic, just blegh, esp since I'm leaning town on VPB (709 and 711 both have a townie mindset)

I don't how choosing to attack VPB for a specific post vs attacking his overall posting makes me opportunistic. And honestly, wouldn't attacking overall posting result in a more vague attack that's easier to defend? IMO it's generally more difficult for scum to pinpoint specific things they don't like about someone's posting. It's easy to attack someone for being "too fluffy".

[midwaybear]

I do think specific examples of behaviours are useful, but I think there's a disconnect between you singling out that post as if it was the main problem when right after, there seems to be a wider issue of fluff in your eyes. It's off.

Ok, I can understand how it comes across as a bit unnatural, but I don't see how you're making the step from "oh this is off from midway" to "it's opportunistic scum"
cuz I think off stuff comes from town a lot of the time and I really don't see what makes that moment scummy

[midwaybear]

The current dawdling is awkward so also not good.

bruh if i was wolf I woulda paired with cakez already

[midwaybear]

ig

[midwaybear]

bringing this back cuz I don't think it ever got answered

i have never played dance games, is it normal for scum to pair together

it's pretty rare actually. What I'm getting from this is that you might think one exists?

[midwaybear]

Almost every irrel post seems so performative.

ik what you mean, but I also liked his read of you in 820 cuz it seems like such a uniquely town way to make a read on someone

[midwaybear]

As a sidenote I’m relieved StD is as scummy as me, because then later if we get elimmed and he’s town i won’t feel as bad about it being my fault two townies flipped. And if he’s scum it will be so easy to catch him - because no one will feel the need to keep me alive! Really I’m doing y’all a favor by being vaguely sketchy

yeah I'm having a hard time seeing this as a scum thought process lol, especially because there's little pressure rn

[midwaybear]

Ummmm firebringer/UNO/StD have pinged me scummily

Ari/TSQ/Cakez/Enchant/midway/StD have pinged me townily

lol I noticed StD made both your town/scum pings. Elaborate on a read from each pile? (i see you talked about me a bit and I agree with that analysis 100%)

[midwaybear]

I hope people will try their luck on my slot on more details if they haven't already?

You're a hard read for me. You've been one of the strongest voices in the game (in a good way), but it also feels like you have a very good control over your words which makes it harder to discern your alignment.

Skimming thru ur iso i liked 767. You sorta set up favoring Enchant as town over Cakez in the first text block, but then instead of towncasing Enchant firmly, you question him at the end of the second text block. It gives a stream of consciousness vibe that feels good.

also in 786, u said you could potentially white knight Enchant for his pop-in, but then you explain that those types of pop-ins typically come from wolves. So on what basis were u going to wk him?

[midwaybear]

Nice
The sad part is that Enchant is more likely to be scum if Cakez also flipped red. But I'm not gonna tinfoil too deep yet

[midwaybear]

The mod team better not be up to something funny.
Anyway good job Shirou, very good catch. Shirou is pretty much 100% town now.
"But Norwee, how did they know Cakez would flip scum there? This might just be some really clever scum distancing" <- No, shut up.

I find norwee pretty town for this post. Doesn't feel like there's much incentive to throw a tr on Shirou here as scum
Lol but I must ask: why can't it be distancing?
My super tinfoil is shirou/vpb/enchant/cakez scumteam

[midwaybear]

kinda want to yeet both of these and then myself

maybe ari is scum, but right now I'm finding the other 5 of you all pretty townie

[midwaybear]

unless enchant is also scum i think it would be batshit insane for shirou to sit there psychoanalyzing his partner knowing there's still a chance he can still dance

This is a very very outside possibility I was thinking

could

be possible.
I think we can first elim VPB/UNOwen. I think UNOwen is town, but VPB has been a pocket scumread of mine for a while. also don't really like his entrance to this first dance phase. 1153, 1163
wow 2 words in two posts. I know there's no outward sense of defeat, but the lack of effort gives off defeated scum vibes.

oh yeah I don't think VPB and Shirou can be scum together either so down goes that crazy tinfoil, meaning Enchant more likely to just be town

pedit:

[midwaybear]

uh yeah should've been 1167
for STD/Irrel, Irrel has been pretty clearly town this game. I think Ydrasse also made a pretty good point in 1183. I don't think wolf Irrel cares to comment on that if Cakez is also wolf.
I'm more nullish on StD. Like I see that Cakez has scumread StD, but I don't wanna scumread every player that Cakez has scumread. StD gives off a chill vibe and while I normally townread stuff like that I feel like he would be chill as wolf too.
Idk, I think VPB more actively scummy so far.

[midwaybear]

@1208, 1209 but isn't irrel also reading enchant as town? It just gives me oblivious town vibes where it's like "oh unfortunately t/t darn"

[midwaybear]

irrel thought cakez was towny more than once, how does this way up versus like how irrel is making/presenting the reads

Rn I still think his way of making/presenting reads feels unlikely to come from a scum angle. I can see how him calling cakez townie might be scum!irrel subtly supporting his buddy, but there's also nothing that makes me think it isn't a townie's genuine opinion. So the way irrel is making reads makes me lean/solid town him up
gonna bring up the top paragraph 1076 again
like does scum reallly say stuff like that?

[midwaybear]

it's about the tinfoil being the first thing that came to your minds

nah I think most tinfoils probably come from town
because if one of me/enchant is scum, it's the scumteam's goal to set us up super-town for how the end of the pre-dance went
so it doesn't make sense for another scum to just start questioning it immediately imo.
In the case that me/enchant t/t, it's just a wack take that i don't think scum generally care to make (cuz they're informed we're t/t and have no reason to suspect that others don't)

[midwaybear]

I'm down to wagon VPB
VOTE: VPB

[midwaybear]

the way ur responding is like....trying to mirror the 'boy im not scared of u' thing. And ur doing the same "im much better than u think" attitude too. Its like ur trying to play up this ego game u guys already did before.
I woudl ask why but i don't really care to find out tbh. This is probably not how i am going to sort u.

I didn't play in HoD but to me, it seems like a pretty normal convo. Feels like a weird line VPB is trying to go down and I think tsq is reasonable here, not in a "im better than u" way but "wdym bro" way.
tsq has been the towniest person in this game for me and I remember u said urs was vpb. So we're both probably biased here.

[midwaybear]

you did meuh dirty

[midwaybear]

even so I think scum midway/cakez always gets yeeted regardless

sure, i get more towncred from cakez flipping red, but I don't get where the idea comes from that me/cakez would get quickly yeeted out. Most people did favor enchant, but also thought it was an unfortunate t/t pairing. Nobody would have cared if I offered cakez and some even preferred

[midwaybear]

I think midways town read of me is weird I don't remember that being expressed before that fight with VPB?

ok, honestly, I'm a little tunneled on VPB. And during that moment, I felt like momentum was shifting away from suspecting VPB. So I wanted to get some support back on wagoning vpb by expressing a tr on you there.
typing it out, it sounds shady but that was my reasoning

[midwaybear]

Why didn't you as town do this, what were you waiting for once you'd been rejected by Enchant?

Cuz I townread enchant and cakez hadn't towntold? If cakez did something I thought was townie, I woulda proposed for sure. Or if people started grumbling too much ig, but that didn't rlly happen.

[midwaybear]

im more or less talking about how scum cakez never makes it to endgame no matter what.
He would have said as much in ur PT anyways...presumably.

yeah I wouldn't know about that

[midwaybear]

honestly im not an endgame player either
it does seem cakez genuinely wanted to play the game, which makes me think we woulda paired as w/w even if it was "better" to ditch him for enchant

[midwaybear]

i will just sheep whatever baltar read GL lands on tbh im not confident anymore

another thing that pinged me about VPB is his dynamic with UNOwen
753 - autoaccept that comes out of nowhere. Every single other pairing had a sort of "story" behind it so UNOwen proposing to VPB out of the blue already is a bit shady (still town in my eyes tho), but then VPB accepting it without a doubt is worse imo
859 - questions me why UNOwen is weird
1043 - asks fire what is townie about UNOwen
The most suspicious thing about the last two posts is that VPB doesn't seem to actively be trying to read UNOwen (which I would expect to be a huge priority). Almost everybody else has a moment where they're actively considering the alignment of their partner, but VPB legit doesn't. Just two weak sauce questions.
The one potentially redeeming point is: 993
UNOwen, let us know what's going on inside the PT so far.

[midwaybear]

why does it even matter what Unowen's alignment is to Baltar at that point in time?

Hmm the problem with my analysis is that im not sure how caught up VPB was at that time. Cuz if VPB was aware that UNOwen was so lurky, there's no shot VPB accepts UNOwen without hesitation. I get that you always want to be pairing as town, but there's still a natural doubt/consulting, especially as the final few pairs are being formed. Absent.
Although if VPB had no clue, then sure ig it's ok.

But once VPB accepts, no way town!VPB should seemingly care so little about sorting UNOwen.
Like 859 implies he doesn't even know UNOwen had barely any posts, which I expect him to have know by then??

[midwaybear]

This point reads as poorly reasoned shade to me.

....

And I see Ari is making all these points for me.

Yes, I don't really view your initial choice to pair with UNOwen as scummy anymore, but both of you ignore the second part.
It doesn't seem like ur actively trying to sort ur partner, which is sus considering how lurky UNOwen has been this game.

[midwaybear]

why would I try to sort my partner in thread instead of in my PT which is designed for such things?

how has that been going?

[midwaybear]

@VPB That sounds pretty generic but ig it's something.
Anyways, wrt Norwee, I can see how it looks like he was pushing for Cakez over Enchant. But I don't think it's done in a super sneaky fashion? It just seems Norwee assumed Enchant/Cakez was t/t and pushed for the +ev move. Although ig you can question why he chose to view them as t/t when a lot of the thread had other opinions.
@GL if im being charitable towards Norwee, i think 895 is just asking Enchant to explain why Enchant is so confident Cakez is town that he's willing to leave the dance. I think u ask a good question why Norwee is allegedly so solvy in PT whereas he's not doing much in thread
but also im having a hard time reconciling Drapion throwing out two simultaneous proposals as scum. I feel scum just play slow and go one at a time.

[midwaybear]

dw VPB just scum trying to agitate

[midwaybear]

not really engaging with the fact that irrel hemmed and hawed about the eod events which i feel like is weird to gloss over

It's similar to how I view norwee, but I see the generally noncommittal read Irrel had on Cakez/Enchant as town genuinely conflicted. irrel didn't even really push Cakez like Norwee, so i don't think his EoD is to concerning

[midwaybear]

dw VPB just scum trying to agitate

Y tho

can't really explain, the whole exchange doesn't read well to me. I've been townreading tsq throughout the game and VPB just seems like he's arguing cuz it provides content. bruh, tsq scummy because he isn't as aggressive over some kinda reaction test 1292? nahh

[midwaybear]

it’s so much easier to just say omg town because of this quirky post lol

ig that's sorta how i like to make reads lol
(off of one post or a short string of them)

[midwaybear]

me too
i skimmed thru 2003 a couple days back and it was tooo funny

[midwaybear]

Yea, I don't really get why fireisred has suddenly gotten 4 votes on him. I think someone's quoted this already (maybe GL), but look back at Cakez: 1060. There's an uncertainty in Cakez read of fire that doesn't read like scum bussing. If Cakez was shading a partner, I would expect a much more sure tone instead.
I don't see what's sus about the EoD either.

[midwaybear]

Oh yeah, I'm now reading STD as town too so I don't want that pair gone today for sure. If StD is scum, saying this out loud might not be the best, but I townread him because although he hasn't been townie, he's acting like he deserves to be townread which I think comes form town.

[midwaybear]

You guys are sure putting a lot of stock in something that's subjective and shaky at that.

what are you even putting stock in?

[midwaybear]

So maybe, we just read the players themselves for now.

Fair enough but I still don't know why you hopped on (I'm still townreading ur slot)

@Norwee. Personally I think people are overanalyzing what happened EoD. Yea scum can call Cakez/Enchant t/t as a means to subtly push for Cakez, but I don't see why town can't say the same thing without an ulterior motive. That's similar to why I don't view ur EoD as scummy either. What makes you think Ari wouldn't bus Cakez? I think it's possible.

[midwaybear]

MariaR entire ISO is a mess

Yes, but i still think it's town (well I think tsq was super town and maria hasn't yet dissuaded that read). Lemme read ur posts above more carefully now.

im assuming ur secret openwolves were tsq/ari. That doesn't make sense to me cuz remember their argument about Cakez and his skirt read? That would be pretty creative scum theater

[midwaybear]

Shirou, you said MariaR repped in and took two relatively consensus-y scumreads which makes her look informed about the gamestate. Ig that's possible. However, then you sus her for switching onto Irrel/StD and then fire/ydrasse. Don't you think that could be testament to her lack of knowledge about the gamestate? Switching around reads so messily? So that's not too scummy to me.

But I think you make a good point about Maria's confidence not aligning with her 1587. It's definitely weird that she starts calling people scum 3 minutes after being seemingly clueless about the game. I want to read it charitably somehow cuz i townread tsq so much, but I'm a bit stumped.
However, i will say this. If Maria is being fed stuff from the mafia pt, then I can see her taking those shady reads but not to that degree of confidence if that makes sense (especially within so little time)

JUST LIKE HOW TSQ hoped on Ari wagon before quickly going back to VPB and saying he would "sit there"

TSQ woulda sat there if VPB hadn't stirred him up. Maybe VPB's the one picking the fight to avoid Ari being suspected

[midwaybear]

That's exactly what he has been doing here imo.

I'm still confused where you think he's (tsq) been scumsiding. If I'm being generous, sure, I can acknowledge his end of day townread on Cakez. But, outside of that, there's nothing else really. Idk how you can say scumsiding so confidently when there's only been one flip too.

I'm open to your maria read tho. I just don't understand the tsq scumread.

[midwaybear]

I think UNO is undeservedly universally townread when I’m suspected by half the pl for similar play
Actually - that makes me think maybe VPB is the baddie. Because I don’t suspect UNO’s posts when I read them, I just suspect his strangely safe positioning

I don't think your play is too similar. You're doing more than Owen. imo most people tr him (including myself for now) because he's doing too little to be scum.
That's a good point about VPB ngl

[midwaybear]

Im fine with hammering too although I see intent has already been declared by VPB. I tr norwee, ari's been a pocket scumread. But, at the same time, I'm wondering how this wagon happened so quickly. People seem to think it's a good info flip? Not sure what "info" it gives beyond alignments ... which every other flip would also accomplish.

pedit: nvm

[midwaybear]

i basically echo ur thoughts on maria

id like to see the post that she said she had but wasn't posting for some reason before we flip anything

good catch.
That part of the interaction read a bit off to me. I'm not sure why Maria needed to play up her response as something she was drafting when I think answering the question should have a fairly simple answer.

[midwaybear]

Looking at the votes, I townread a lot of the early votes. The only ones I'm not sure are later ones like owen, maybe meuh, and vpb (pending). So the wagon seems clean early on which is a good sign.
idk if it's ai but ive noticed maria keeps talking about killing norwee when she isn't even voting there? Is she more attentive as scum, faking derp? Am I overthinking? hum

[midwaybear]

No it's not. I've literally talked about Owen and how I am not town reading him. Relly also has much worse associatives with Cakez. It's a terrible point.

bruh you talked about in the most lamist way
And I think the point was that you guys should be receiving more pressure as a t/t pair, since UNOwen has been so lurky.

[midwaybear]

If you vote them I’ll swap and if they flip wolf I promise to not vote you next.

ur vote is already on fire

[midwaybear]

I'm not getting pressured because there's nothing of substance there.

and why isn't owen getting pressured? You said urself that you aren't townreading him.

Also, we are going down the wrong track asking why norwee is scum. if there's scum in the pair, it's ari imo

[midwaybear]

VOTE: norwee/ari cuz i don't want fire/ydra flipped nor maria/furtive yet
vpb clearly isn't going through rn
one vote to lim

[midwaybear]

Oh I could’ve hammered? That’s unlucky. Hey mid you’re one of like four people I have as a villager what’s your partner tier list looking like

now u can although it might be a bit rude if they're both town
tier list
gl/fire
fire/ydra
me/enchant
you/furtive

std/irrel
shirou/meuh

norwee/ari
vpb/unowen

[midwaybear]

if ari red -> meuh town else meuh is good candidate for next flip

I'm at like:

other than fire being scum, i mostly agree (well u have norwee scum and i have ari scum so that's fine)
i don't think u ever answered my question yesterday why u scumread him? U wanna say?
good to see vpb in the orange

[midwaybear]

gj
shirou, i really don't think tsq aligned with ari given their argument over cakez and his skirt jacket read
how about we all VOTE: VPB

[midwaybear]

wrong person in that pair

what if... they're both scum

[midwaybear]

i thought her vote was kinda gross too

maybe if it was t/t, but given ari flipped scum it doesn't look like a bus setup to me

[midwaybear]

I asked Owen who he thought would flip scum out of that pair and he said Norwee, so I'm guessing Owen is probably not scum here. Gave him a chance for free distancing and he didn't take it.

nah, he could just be scared to look informed

[midwaybear]

i’m put off by her vote boiling down to her saying “idk which one it could be but here’s a reason to vote regardless”
also late vote lol

hmm i think shirou sorta forced her to vote which is why it looks so odd

[midwaybear]

i’m put off by her vote boiling down to her saying “idk which one it could be but here’s a reason to vote regardless”
also late vote lol

hmm i think shirou sorta forced her to vote which is why it looks so odd

so i think from a town pov, she legit doesn't have too strong reasons to vote but since shirou is telling her she makes that weak justification. as scum, she's probably more firm there
also i don't see why she would shade drapion early on given that's who her buddy is paired with

[midwaybear]

didn't she shade drapion before ari accepted and then kinda walk it back after

idr the exact timeline

I think the Drapion thing is a really weak point because I walked it back within the same post I even shaded him, yeah

im trying to prove ur town work with me -_-

yo i see you tried to pair with GL. That's townie in my book.

[midwaybear]

real mindmeld

[midwaybear]

shirou
for the third time, i have a hard time seeing tsq/ari fight over cakez as scum theater. The whole thing starts with 908. When do you ever see two scum buddies arguing over how to read a third scum buddy? Cuz what even is their end goal with that triple scum interaction beyond looking unaligned (which I heavily doubt scum care about so early on).
you need to explain your other points on tsq as well

To the damn end, MariaR never voted Ari even though she kept talking about how there was scum for sure there.

i can't really see this as a sneaky scum move lol

[midwaybear]

have similar thoughts with u on fb, but it's not prio to talk about him before second dance

[midwaybear]

Why are you so great is my question

what do you mean?

Also I have a hard time seeing this particular back-forth as scum theater lol
First, why would maria ask her buddy a completely irrelevant question? Why not ask something remotely game-related to build some cred upon flip? Maybe a stretch, but is she really gonna call her buddy who is about to get flipped "great"?
And Ari's response just reads genuinely confused. If they were both scum, I expect something more playful. Like alright im about to flip, lemme make u look town. But it's just a simple wdym. Given that they must be interacting a lot in the scum PT, no way Ari reads this confused to something coming from scum!maria
And then Maria just ignores Ari from there. No distancing just disinterest.

Also why would scum maria push norwee instead of ari straight up?

[midwaybear]

got to convince GL im scum friend.

I changed my mind
I think ur town

[midwaybear]

So they look unaligned which is what they should be doing but that's not scum "priority" according to you? What.

Scum priority from start to finish on the game is to look town and seem unaligned, they don't necessarily need to search for misleminations, town will most likely miseliminate or give a serious push on a miselimination on their own. what do you even think Ari was doing in this game other than trying to distance when she only opened her mouth to talk about how Cakez was scummy?

You say looking unaligned wouldn't be their "priority" but you're proven to be FACTUALLY WRONG already with Cakez/Ari.

Can you please just stop thinking that playing a good scum game and advancing their wincon (looking unaligned) is something they wouldn't do? It makes no sense for anyone that knows the basics of playing scum.

-To come up with the three way interaction takes creativity as scum and it's not something i see them pursuing so early in the game. yes, scum want to look unaligned, but they generally don't come up with such creative schemes to do so.
-Bro I thought Ari was potentially bussing too, but this isn't the same type of situation. it's a three way scum interaction, not just two scum interacting with each other.
It's two scum buddies deciding to argue about the towniness of their third buddy. I have a hard time believing scum tsq decides to fight his partner Ari for scumreading their other partner. If it's over anyone else, sure but it's not.

[midwaybear]

Ok midway, out of curiosity then if I am right on MariaR as well will you consider lending me your vote or 3/3 will still not be enough for you?

I'm arguing with you right now because you have done well so far. like it's out of respect for your game. You have a lot of influence, so I feel like I need to argue with you since I really disagree that maria/tsq is scum.
if you're right on maria, my own confidence will be shattered and i will likely sheep you yes

[midwaybear]

Huh I thought FB was just town, especially with him pairing with GL.
But I also haven't given it much thought, since I think it's just better to look at post-intermission

we were just messing around. FB is town.

[midwaybear]

for me that push has been the staple of Midway's gameplay so it irks me

i think ive done much more than just push vpb

[midwaybear]

Did you explain why furitive is obvtown

why did you vote furtive instead of maria? did your read on her change? did u ever even scumread her?

[midwaybear]

You seem to not have much on term of reads except coincidentally town reading your partner.

Who does this behavior remind me of again?

Ah yeah Ati. People also said that behavior or hers wasn't scummy, look at how that turned out.

Stop trying to read every player the same way. And there are still differences. Ari was giving legit reasons why norwee is scum and in a very controlled manner. furtive is much more unrestrained. His reasons are admittedly unconvincing, but it gives me vibes of town desperately finding a reason to stay alive. You might be like: "wouldn't he be doing the exact same thing as scum". Nah, at least not this this degree of indignance and I doubt he can spew so much as scum either. He's getting more engaged as he is getting pushed which is not a common pattern I find w/ scum.

[midwaybear]

doing nothing in the pt to try to sort me

can it be explained by his inactivity or is it like nothing nothing

[midwaybear]

reconsidering my irrel townread

[midwaybear]

it's my fault isn't it

a little, but STD comment about irrel hood activity helped me realize some of the reasons I viewed him as obv town don't rlly hold up. I still prefer VPB/Owen, but ur next

[midwaybear]

There aren't specific posts that make me townread him, but I feel that he is too confident in his own status to be scum. All the stuff about "will to live" being scummy I disagree with because it's a pretty common for town players to say they are town without really saying why (or having good reasons why in this case). Idk how convincing it is to you, but that's why I prefer vpb/un or even ur pair gone today.

[midwaybear]

Example No.1 is cakez and No. 2 is ari.

you can't deny neither cakez nor ari were desperate to the same extent furtive is

[midwaybear]

Nothing else she's done points to town.

I think she's town rn cuz she came out of both flips ready to solve

[midwaybear]

If they were the only mafia in the last players to be paired, scum would have made more of an effort to save them.

that's not a great argument cuz scum don't always try to save their buddy. ari was softbussing cakez remember
and when you consider everything outside of that, it's unlikely either of us play the way we've played as scum

[midwaybear]

Nothing else she's done points to town.

I think she's town rn cuz she came out of both flips ready to solve

What do you mean?

after cakez flipped scum, she noted that cakez is a known busser and started pulling quotes. I didn't get an agenda-y vibe from it.
after ari flipped scum, she started pushing you/vpb and pulled up a gazillion vote counts.
I feel that scum generally don't come in with so much energy after their buddies have gotten flipped.

[midwaybear]

What do you find fishy about me? Since "a little".

I didn't really get why you had to say you were town and didn't read anything in ur first post. Bit of an awkward intro.
felt like you were stalling out Shirou a bit, potentially from an informed angle
and you ask a bit too much questions which idk why i found scummy but yea
mostly just series of small pings that prevented me from liking ur entrance

[midwaybear]

@midway - does this make sense to you?

Yes. And yes Enchant could be scum is what I'm saying

What happens if midway accepted Enchants refusal and then he flips scum who committed suicide?

That seems like it would be a pretty easy deduction that he's do that to save his buddy.

ig
though honestly, there are rarely easy deductions in mafia...
something might seem obvious from scum pov, but town can't find consensus on it
so im not sure how much that played a role in scum decision making. ill take a look back

[midwaybear]

Neither of those flips were unexpected by the time they happened, they weren't close run things.
From my perspective her push post Cakez flip was Irrel, who I think is town and her push post Ari was me.
If MariaR/furtive is a T/T pair do my votes really look bad? I feel like that if I equalized the wagons it wasn't inevitable what would happen.

-k but even if scum ydrasse anticipated that, i doubt she's going to draft up a post about her post flip thoughts. It's most likely she spontaneously came up with those thoughts after seeing the flip and I think that attitude comes from town more often than not
-fairly reasonable takes imo. u think she looked opportunistic?
-ur vote didn't have any words attached so it looks bad.

[midwaybear]

Meuh's post is way too large and what I read wasn't any good, feels like busywork to me but IDK I just got here

it looked fine to me, and there's no way scum meuh puts that much effort at this stage in the game

[midwaybear]

unfortunately im already pocketed by enchant

[midwaybear]

I mean true but why do you think this

Cuz I don't see what your objective is as scum in making that post. I think scum want to preserve themself or set up their buddy at this point in game (duh). But idk what that accomplishes in terms of self-pres and if you're w/w w/ furtive, I feel like a mega post explaining why he is town is not the first thing that comes up when you think of how to defend a partner.

[midwaybear]

midway what's your read on baltar?

in my poe

[midwaybear]

this current wagon isn't it.
furtive legit has not shown a single scum pattern this whole time he has been pushed imo
ofc this wagon probably isn't scum driven, so i think you guys have just picked up some lhf tendencies he has and read them all as scummy. maria still town too. I think we can do better today.
Either with vpb/owen (but my owen tr has came back after last night) and I'm even willing to compormise with std/gimil (@VPB)

[midwaybear]

what do you consider a scum pattern?

his posting is natural, not resigned, even a bit aggressive
reminds me of myself when i got pushed as town before

[midwaybear]

bye bye baltar
VOTE: vpb

[midwaybear]

alright. first of all: all scum on wagon yesterday
and I wasn't on wagon
but I'll respond to this

why midway

I had him as pretty town but there were a couple of problems that I picked up on reviewing ISO and the initial Enchant/Cakez decision still bugs me
If you consider VPB town (which I was assuming for the review) then his content starts to look pretty bad, he has been tunneling non stop

Considering end of choosing, there's no reason for midway to just sit around and do nothing when he gets rejected. He doesn't try to convince Enchant, he doesn't try to get a read on Cakez, he looked like scum who had a plan that just got deflated. Ari then tried to push Enchant into accepting. Cakez initial reaction was overdone and looked a little like theatre. midway does point out the possibility that he's scum who planned to take enchant as an obvtown ticket which is the big point in his favour but could just be WIFOM

Elsewhere he had a mysterious Ari pocket scumread that I can't find much of an explanation for and his position on Firebringer was looked pretty shifty to me in this sequence of posts 2148 , 2155 and 2213

-I was intentionally doing nothing wrt sorting Cakez/Enchant cuz I was trying to observe the gamestate instead. I wanted to see how the rest of the thread pushed Cakez/Enchant and if I could glean anything from that.
-uh ari was just gut. Thought she could be bussing cakez eod. Ig you can suspect that if u want.
-firebringer: I was actually a bit sus on firebringer, but I realized it wouldn't do any good to say (maybe scum nk his pair) which is why I started calling him town.

[midwaybear]

Meuh/shirou should unquestionably be the endgame pair imo
people pushing her are susp to me because scum know shirou is unpushable and probably go for meuh instead
Again, scum!meuh doesn't make that effort to call furtive town at that moment. Idc that she ended up voting furtive.
AND she tried pairing with GL lol

[midwaybear]

alright. first of all: all scum on wagon yesterday
and I wasn't on wagon

why are you sure of this

i think that wagon was always happening once shirou refused to play the game

^

i off wagon was four flipped town, me, and fire so ig it is a backwards reasoning

[midwaybear]

wrt the enchant meta
has midway ever played a game with enchant to know that info because i think he was gone for like a year?

i was aware of enchant as a player before this game
and even if i didn't, my buddies would know

pedit: what fire sadi

[midwaybear]

I think it's ydra and midway.

Yes and we 8-9 hammered our buddy ari with little progression cuz why not.
And before you say it's for the cred, idt either of us has mentioned it before this point so nah.
Meanwhile, you're hemming and hawing about ari and how she townreads norwee in the pages before she gets flipped.

ok, let's get a flip then today I guess. Intent to hammer. I'll give you a couple hours for any final words or for Ari to deliver on a persuasive townread of Norwee.

I would be pretty surprised if Nor was actually mafia and I guess the egg would be on my face but I just don't think he is - so many things he does feels counterproductive to his win condition and most of the points against him are not definitive - I know I might be biased but I just don't feel that I'm wrong here.

Can I get a couple examples of what you think is counterproductive to a scum win con? Doesn't need to be quotes and stuff. bullets are fine.

Maria - You going to post this reply post, or...???

another point that I thought was counterproductive to his win con was when he started talking about how he suspected me for being so trusting of him at a time when lots of other people were suspicious of me for other reasons.

This feels like really counterproductive to post if he actually wants us to survive and there's really no reason for him to post that because it only signal amps suspicion on his dance partner.

This feels like a better point than the "scum don't fight IC point"

another point that I thought was counterproductive to his win con was when he started talking about how he suspected me for being so trusting of him at a time when lots of other people were suspicious of me for other reasons.

This feels like really counterproductive to post if he actually wants us to survive and there's really no reason for him to post that because it only signal amps suspicion on his dance partner.

This feels like a better point than the "scum don't fight IC point"

I do think Ari has shown more survivalism this game than norwee, to be fair.

LOL right after I vote ari and kill pressure becomes evident again

[midwaybear]

wow i didn't get pedit from midway post, we posted at same milisecond, locktown

yuh

[midwaybear]

VOTE: norwee/ari cuz i don't want fire/ydra flipped nor maria/furtive yet
vpb clearly isn't going through rn
one vote to lim

I like I how midway is trying to take credit for the ari flip when this was his vote lol.

That vote came at a time when people started getting cold feet on whether norwee/ari was actually the day's flip or not. So...
And the point of the post was more about u than me lol

[midwaybear]

midway posturing with "look at all my wagon positions" just has a bad tone to it

don't make the same mistake twice

[midwaybear]

Well played scumteam
i completely scumsided after the first day phase. Gotta sto pmaking careless reads

[midwaybear]

Exceptionally modded. Thanks for the game Datisi.