Newbie 1741 - Game Over

[nn30]

Hey everyone!

I've played some mafia in real life but never online. It'll be interesting to play without the help of body language tells - let's see how this goes!

I'll start us off with some strategy talk...

Since there are 7 town and 2 mafia it's unlikely that a day one lynch will be useful (since we're unlikely to land on a mafia). I'm in favor of a day one no lynch.

[nn30]

Also, how do I do vote tags?

[nn30]

Any no lynches give the town a mathematical disadvantage, bad idea

What's the math on that?

[nn30]

On day one we don't have anything other than a hello and some bsing to go off of. Those feelings are worthless.

I'm still not seeing how no lynches are bad. *shrug*

[nn30]

@Dunhallym Do you like my sweet new avatar? Roll a d20 to see how you react to it.

@Dunhallym - In all seriousness, a no lynch day one is something I would go for and have gone for in real life. In RL, you can play a 9 person game in 20 minutes. There's not nearly as much time on day one to gather information on people. In this case, the day one lynch is actually just random (or you just point it at the trickiest person in the game regardless of the tells you have on them). Odds are you kill a townie by accident this way and get no real good information out of it.

But, I'm quickly realizing that the way games go online are significantly different than the way they go in real life.

There's been more conversation on day one of this game than I've ever seen in real life. I see now that the information which can be gathered is useful. Plus, with the nature of a running forum, you can hold people accountable for what they said and who they associated with on day one.

I don't know if I'm being paranoid here or what, but I could potentially see this Titus/Papa Zito business being SvS.
Meh, probably just paranoid really. That's not the talk for now anyways... Everyone hasn't even posted yet...

Probs just paranoid. I think they're just they were just the two most active people so they ended up talking to each other.

Seriously, did you not put together that newbie scum might suggest no lynch because they fear getting lynched?

I mean... maybe... but if self preservation were triggered by one vote mafia is not the right game for me to be playing.

@shaddowez @titus why are you voting algebra? Post 48 seems legit to me - lets gather more information before we go into the night.

I'll add to the heat as well.

VOTE: shadowez

[nn30]

Realizing I failed to upload an avatar... Hold on...

[nn30]

@Papa Zito is there a way to delete posts? Maybe nobody else has seen it yet.

[nn30]

Just adding to the heat.

[nn30]

I play a lot of games with a guy in real life. Lets call him Kyle (not his real name). He teaches everyone the game, leads the discussion the whole time, and then everyone votes him out of the game because he's also the most experienced (e.g. able to trick us).

I'm also voting for shaddowez because he's our inexperience challenged player. Rawr.

>:(

[nn30]

@Titus and you're confirmed town how?

[nn30]

No, I'm saying that you're not confirmed town.

[nn30]

VOTE: papa zito

My apologies.

[nn30]

So here's where my thoughts are right now. Please chime in if you agree / disagree.

Townie feeling - Dunhallym - entered the game and gave some good analysis on what was going on. This is difficult to do as scum since pretending to do analysis on who is and isn't scum is difficult when you already know the answer.
Townie feeling - Aronagrundy - more of a feeling than anything, but she seems genuine town.

Scummy feeling - Algebra - quick to go along with a lynch vote but isn't offering much in the way of reasoning. Maybe because he knows the people he's putting votes on aren't scum.
Scummy feeling - Titus - five pages in and he won't let go of his scum tell on me. Is it so hard to believe that a newbie would think a no lynch is good?
Scummy feeling - Morning Tweet - post 81 was the tell. Read page three up to post 81. Tweet's analysis comes out of nowhere basically. As I said above it's difficult to do analysis as scum, no?

No reads - everyone else.

Whatever happens, I just want day one to be over. Nothing here is set in stone - I want to see if scum do before I make any concrete conclusions.

[nn30]

@Titus - she*

My apologies.

[nn30]

@Morning Tweet

I assume you mean Dunhallym and not Arona? That's who I referred to in my post anyways.

Dunhallym - post 91 - She came in and asked a number of good questions about what had happened so far. Her thoughts were well developed and I agree with most of her sentiments.

Your post (81) was kind of rambly and commented on something which, judging by page three, was a dead topic at the time.

[nn30]

I don't know where you got the idea that I'm phased. You don't get to Donald Trump this conversation (e.g. declare something to be true and then have it indeed be true).

I play a lot of games with a guy in real life. Lets call him Kyle (not his real name). He teaches everyone the game, leads the discussion the whole time, and then everyone votes him out of the game because he's also the most experienced (e.g. able to trick us).

BTW if this is your criteria your vote should be on me.

fear my join date

lol

VOTE: papa zito

My apologies.

Clearly a joke.

[nn30]

@papa zito - no read because you're talking so much it blurs everything. Remember, I only have RL to compare to - and in RL the most talkative person just means they're experienced. I've been carried by a talkative townie and I've been tricked by a talkative scum as well.

@dunhallym - you're right, it was weird that I left with my vote on papa instead of on someone I felt was scummy.

VOTE: algebra

L-1 I believe.

[nn30]

Great, so according to your own words, we're far out of RVS but you're still joking around?

Also, given your behavior towards my push, my reply details the fact you are phased. That's pretty true. Stop trying to be bigman on campus if you're town. Stop joking around. A joke is ok, but retracting a vote based on its a joke doesn't make any sense. You seem to be doing whatever it is that gets people to like you. Well guess what I like odd balls.

I'm playing it like it's a game.

I'm having fun with it.

[nn30]

I am so helping rn.

Generate discussion? Check.
Scumhunt? Check.
Pushing wagon? Check.

I'm the towniest town the ever towned and you know it, that's why you aren't even accusing me of anything.

You could be like

"ayy this zito guy's pushing bs on me vote: zito"
or
"ayy let's dissect or hell even question this zito guy what's pushing a wagon and got me to L-2 on page 2"

but nah you're just like
"this is fine" #firedog

@Titus: Dunny mentioned I'm tunneling you.

@papa zito - no read because you're talking so much it blurs everything.

well

Primarily I've been digging at Titus this whole time. Look at the questions I'm asking and observations I'm making. Do you think those further a scum agenda or a town one? Why?


The nice thing about the forum game is you can always go back and review things. I'll point you to the "Iso" feature - scroll to the bottom of the page, below the quick reply box, and you'll see "Display posts by user: "


If you select my name and push Go the page will refresh with just my posts. Even better you can push the [+] button next to it:


Now you can see our full back-and-forth. Neat!

@Papa Zito

Thanks for pointing out the iso feature, very helpful.

Look at the questions I'm asking and observations I'm making. Do you think those further a scum agenda or a town one? Why?

Here are the things I see you doing.

1) Trying to force Titus' thought process into the open. This furthers a town agenda because it fosters transparency that we can later reference. We can use this information to either catch her in a fib or determine that she is indeed town.

2) You're tunneling Titus. This one could go either way. It could further the town agenda because you're genuinely trying to vet Titus and her actions. It could also further scum agenda because if everyone is focused on Titus, they aren't focused on the real scum (presumably you and your buddy).

3) [quote="In post 114 Why am I having to drag this shit over multiple pages?[/quote]

This leads me to believe that point two, while it could go either way, should be leaning town. You seem genuinely pissed that Titus is being difficult and not answering questions. This would stem from your desire to find out if you and her are actually on the same team or not.

I am so helping rn.

I'm the towniest town the ever towned and you know it, that's why you aren't even accusing me of anything.

At the time this quote was merely hilarious. Now, four pages later, the only accusation or vote you've accumulated is my joke vote. This holds a little more weight than it did on page two. What could this mean?

Option 1) You're the towniest town that ever towned.

Option 2) You're the smoothest talking scum that ever scummed.

This exercise has illuminated that I should be getting a town vibe from you.

HOWEVER.

This game has also taught me not to trust anyone and especially not on day one. I've been burnt many times by trusting someone who I knew to be good at the game. I'm still inclined to stick with original feeling - no read - but I will acknowledge that the needle has moved towards town.

[nn30]

DAMN IT why are putting multiple quotes in so difficult.

[nn30]

Read from @papa zito down - the rest is not meant to be there.

[nn30]

Cleaned up version. I hope this works.

@Papa Zito

Thanks for pointing out the iso feature, very helpful.

Look at the questions I'm asking and observations I'm making. Do you think those further a scum agenda or a town one? Why?

Here are the things I see you doing.

1) Trying to force Titus' thought process into the open. This furthers a town agenda because it fosters transparency that we can later reference. We can use this information to either catch her in a fib or determine that she is indeed town.

2) You're tunneling Titus. This one could go either way. It could further the town agenda because you're genuinely trying to vet Titus and her actions. It could also further scum agenda because if everyone is focused on Titus, they aren't focused on the real scum (presumably you and your buddy).

3) You seem genuine?

Why am I having to drag this shit over multiple pages?

That's either really good fake anger, or genuine anger. I assume you're mad because, if you and Titus are both town, she is wasting your time.

I'm the towniest town the ever towned and you know it, that's why you aren't even accusing me of anything.

At the time this quote was merely hilarious. Now, four pages later, the only accusation or vote you've accumulated is my joke vote. This holds a little more weight than it did on page two. What could this mean?

Option 1) You're the towniest town that ever towned.

Option 2) You're the smoothest talking scum that ever scummed.

This exercise has illuminated that I should be getting a town vibe from you.

HOWEVER.

This game has also taught me not to trust anyone and especially not on day one. I've been burnt many times by trusting someone who I knew to be good at the game. I'm still inclined to stick with original feeling - no read - but I will acknowledge that the needle has moved towards town.[/quote]

[nn30]

@Dunhallym - I try not to be a jerk online. I'm pretty peeved at Titus right now and I still apologized for mis-gendering her. Just my style. I understand you taking it as a scum tell though. Of course scum want to be generally agreeable.

[nn30]

@shaddowez @titus why are you voting algebra? Post 48 seems legit to me - lets gather more information before we go into the night.

I ask a question.

Scummy feeling - Algebra - quick to go along with a lynch vote but isn't offering much in the way of reasoning. Maybe because he knows the people he's putting votes on aren't scum.

I answer my own question (since nobody answered it).

VOTE: algebra

I act on that thought.

[nn30]

*shrugs*

My vote is still on you for a reason.

[nn30]

Nn30 does appear to be scared of rope, but this counter seems a little opportunistic.

@Titus what counter are you referring to?

[nn30]

When nn30 flips red we should definitely consider Titus

@Algebra

What you just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. I award you no points, and may god have mercy on your soul.

We've only just gotten out of the stage of the game where Titus is tunneling on me. Now that she's moved her scum radar to someone other than me, she's suddenly suspicious? How does that even make sense?

Your contribution to this game has consisted of votes (without accompanying logic) or votes (with an accompanying one liner). You've contributed basically nothing of substance as to

why

you feel the way you feel. If you're actually town (unlikely) this is frustrating to play with.

[nn30]

@arona - Algebra's post in 172 doesn't make sense because Titus has been on me the entire game. Just because she looks elsewhere when Algebra is also at 3 votes shouldn't necessarily be suspicious.

@shadowezz - Honestly, I didn't press Titus because I didn't think to do so. Still new at this - not entirely sure how to scumhunt online. I relied a lot on body language cues in person (which is obviously impossible online).

[nn30]

Nn30 does appear to be scared of rope, but this counter seems a little opportunistic.

@Titus what counter are you referring to?

Your wagon countering algebra.

I was on the Algebra wagon before one was started on me. The wagon on me started because I put Algebra at L-1.

[nn30]

To be honest, all of this detail is pretty overwhelming. I need to make a point of not disappering on weekends. I'll go through and respond to anyone who had a thought directed at me and then see where that takes me.

[nn30]

So I wrote a book on the topic 'replying to everyone that had questions for me.'

Then I failed to hit submit and walked away. I'm now salty.

I'll try again tomorrow.

[nn30]

I feel like I've missed the window of relevance to respond to some of the questions posed to me - it'd be weird to bring it up now. If anyone has something burning that I haven't answered, please let me know and I'd be happy to do so.

I want to see if I can't suss out Algebra's scum buddy (assuming that, however unlikely, that we're not both town) based on some associations. This analysis is based on the 'talk is cheap' mantra - I'm only looking at votes which have been cast. I'm also assuming that no bussing has occurred to this point.

Algebra has voted for Titus and myself (removing both of us as his likely partners). Shaddowez, Titus, Arona and Dunhallym have all voted for Algebra at one point. This leaves only Papa Zito, Morning Tweet, Empoof as the most likely partners. I have some thoughts as to the most likely but I'll keep those to myself for the moment.

[nn30]

@Titus - You're right, bussing could happen. Though I'm assuming that it wouldn't happen on day one. I imagine bussing is good for mid/late game when being on the wagon that turns up a scum gains you some cred among the town. Doing that right now and risking turning the game into 7 vs 1 seems suboptimal.

[nn30]

I wrote about half a paragraph which was defending Shaddowez. Then I realized I didn't agree with my own logic.

[quote="In post 284

Yep, look at me flailing. Mind showing me where I'm backtracking? Or, define how backtracking can be proven against reads progressing based on new information presented.

...

I'm still hesitant based on this not being the town!Titus I'm used to, but not enough to have a vote there.

UNVOTE: [/quote]

So he flails and backtracks in response to being told he's flailing and backtracking. facepalm.jpg

I still think that Algebra is a better lynch today, however. He's basically dropped off the face of the earth (not that he's ever posted much to begin with). If he's town the most generous thing I can say about him is that he's being unhelpful. If he's scum we've got ourselves a day one scum lynch. Win win?

[nn30]

I'm so bad at quoting HOLY SHIT. I feel a little dumber every time I do that.

Can someone link me to an article on how to quote properly please?

[nn30]

My vote was on Algebra, actually.

VOTE: Algebra

[nn30]

Minus nn30, this is the algebra wagon.

Can we get intent from you MT?

Irrelevant aside - as I was falling asleep last night, I came up with a mathy argument to why day one no lynch is bad.

Assumptions for this exercise - the worst case scenario occurs every day (town mis lynches all the way up to lynch correctly or lose stage).

X means lynch, O means night kill

Day one lynch scenario:

9 players start. X O X O

X

.

In this case the bold X represents town getting the last lynch.

Day one no lynch scenario:

9 players start. O X O X

O

.

In this case, scum get the last kill to put the game at parity (ending the game).

In a 9 person game a day one no lynch speeds the game up (in scum favor).



Using this argument a 10 person 2 scum game should actually no lynch day one.

O

X

O X O

X

.

It gives them the power of the last kill (as opposed to forfeiting it to scum with a day one kill). Also, assuming lynches are chosen randomly, the day two lynch carriers a higher chance of landing on scum than a day one lynch. A marginal advantage but still relevant.

Can anyone disagree with this logic?

[nn30]

That quote was not meant to be there...

[nn30]

I know we're not a 10 person game. I was presenting a scenario in which a day one no lynch holds some merit. Hence - irrelevant aside.


If we were to play a 10 person game, I wouldn't even bring up a no lynch until maybe the last 2 days. That way we played as if we were going to lynch and gained information already. In a 10 person game - assuming lynches never land on scum - a no lynch day one scenario comes with the same number of town lynches as a day one lynch scenario.

[nn30]

I know we're not a 10 person game. I was presenting a scenario in which a day one no lynch holds some merit. Hence - irrelevant aside.


If we were to play a 10 person game, I wouldn't even bring up a no lynch until maybe the last 2 days. That way we played as if we were going to lynch and gained information already. In a 10 person game - assuming lynches never land on scum - a no lynch day one scenario comes with the same number of town lynches as a day one lynch scenario.

Common wisdom around here is to always lynch Day 1 regardless of even/odd number of players. Reason being is Day 1 generates a ton of info with wagons and conversation which you'll lose if you decide to no lynch that day.

I mean, I get that. What if a no lynch day one was only pushed after the wagon had moved around the town and information was gained?

[nn30]

@Papa Zito

Corollary: If the town is willing to drive someone to L-1 then clearly they're seen as a scummy player, why wouldn't you just lynch them then and there?

Because in a 10 person game town gets the same number of lynches to try and catch scum - regardless of whether or not the first lynch was on day one or day two.

Are you familiar with the Monty Hall problem? If not - here you go.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

TL;DR: There are three doors. One contains a car, the other two contain goats. A game show contestant chooses a door. After this initial choice, the host opens one of the unchosen doors and reveals a goat. The host then asks - would you like to change doors? Math says you should. The math also holds true for larger numbers of doors.

We could extend this problem to Mafia scum. The car = scum and goats = town. The host is the night kill (revealing/killing a goat in the night).


@Titus - the choice of when to bring up a no lynch could be seen as AI. This is indeed a problem that I cannot resolve - I concede this point to you.

[nn30]

I missed your post the first time around, rereading it now.

I brought it up because it's interesting.

[nn30]

@Empoof - We can table the strategy talk - no offense taken here.

I think that the case against shadow is based on two things 1) contradicting himself (Titus meta) and being caught doing so and 2) he flailed in response to being told he was flailing.

I can see the reason behind the votes which are currently on him but I don't feel strongly enough about it to be the hammer.

@Dunhallym - I think it's unlikely that Algebra and Shaddowez are partners. I laid out why I thought that in 269.

[nn30]

@Dun where's my shiny reply?

[nn30]

C'mon fam - make with the talking.

FYI - I'm leaving for a wedding tomorrow morning. It's unlikely that I'll be able to put much effort into any post between then and Sunday morning.

[nn30]

@Empoof - Are you asking why I don't think he's scummy enough for a lynch?

[nn30]

Or, better yet, why I think Algebra is a better lynch than him?

[nn30]

I'm not understanding the question.

[nn30]

@Titus - if we haven't shifted to Algebra as today's lynch by 12pm (~5hrs from now) I will claim intent to hammer on Shaddowez.

[nn30]

Intent to hammer Shaddowez

Off to bed now. VLA

[nn30]

@Zito - On mobile. Just lost 30 minutes worth of reply to mafia scum telling me to login again. RIP. In the car - will chime in soon.

[nn30]

So, Shaddowez replies have done nothing to convince me of his innocence - in fact they've done the opposite. They're inconsistent and still flailing.

Re: Flailing - it's in your tone. You've been salty for a while and since I said I had intent to hammer it's only intensified. You disregard the explanations we've already given for how you seem to be backtracking and flailing and instead turn it back on us "how exactly am I flailing/backtracking again?"

Re: inconsistent* - In 284 you ask us how exactly you're flailing/being inconsistent - you give us the counter explanation that you're reacting to new information. Then you go on to unvote Titus. It felt like you unvoted Titus due to pressure in yourself, not new information.

Re: inconsistency 2.0 - You originally wagoned me way back when by pointing out an inconsistency in wgat I said (which I've since explained). In 344 you go on to say that 1) you found me less scummy because I'm unlikely to be Algebra's partner and 2) you try not to make preflip associatives. Point 1 and 2 contradict one another all on their own. The logic in point 1 also contradicts why you found me scummy in the first place (my scummyness had nothing to do with a partnership with Algebra according to anything you said).

Inconsistency 3.0 - You said in 355 thats it's the job of town to back up their reads. IMO it feels like you want to wagon titus just because she's wagoning you. First you vote her, then unvote her and now you want to revote her again. You joined the Algebra wagon in what was most likely a self preservation tactic - you offered nothing of substance on wanting to lynch him. You started a wagon on me and then abandoned it in an inconsistent manner (as I've pointed out above).

You asked earlier why I originally tried to defend you and changed my mind. Please refer to the * above. I originally thought you could be changing your mind on Titus due to changing information. On rereading recent posts I concluded no new information had come to light and that it didn't make sense.

As it stands right now, I'm more inclined to lynch shadow than Algebra. His posts have convinced me.

@Empoof - if you had to choose right now who would you lynch?

I'm available for the next ~2 hours. I'll bold a VLA after that.

[nn30]

What should we make of the hammer coming from Algebra (the other likely lynch)? I'm inclined to think it should have come from someone without a self preservation motive.

[nn30]

vla

[nn30]

Just finished my re-read of the thread (and an Arona ISO).

To the IC's - when you've played as scum, what have your goals been with NK's?

Arona voted for shadow, titus, algebra, me, and empoof at one point or another.

Her issues with Titus were from Titus' scumreading of me on page one. She also indicates in 230 that she thinks Titus is town.

Her issues with me were from early-mid game. She indicates in 257 that she thinks of me as less scummy due to a reinterpretation of something that happened.

When Empoof entered the game she scumread him for a while but eventually settled on a town read after an exchange between the two of them.

Shadow is dead.

All that leaves is Algebra. However, I don't actually think a scum Algebra has much to gain from killing Arona - he's already on the block with so many of us that one NK isn't going to change the general feeling towards him.

Option 1) Arona was killed because she was being read as townie. Empoof was the only person who comes to mind to even vote her seriously. She never gained any significant heat beyond that.

Option 2) Arona was onto something. Other than Algebra, she didn't seem to be zero'd in on anyone. If I had to choose between myself, Titus, and Empoof, Arona's weakest town read was on me. So that's something I guess.

Option 3) Arona was killed because scum had a PR tell on her (unlikely).

[nn30]

@Empoof - my bad. If you're reading this Arona, I'm sorry I misgendered you dude. Your avatar threw me off.

[nn30]

I don't know, I think that's overthinking it Tweet.

Occam'srazor.gif

[nn30]

I see no compelling reason not to lynch Algebra today.

VOTE: Algebra

[nn30]

@Empoof - what are your thoughts on the Arona NK?

@Everyone - we need to generate some more discussion. It's like everyone fell off the face of the earth.

[nn30]

@Empoof - How does an Arona NK benefit scum teams?

@Papa Zito - He explained that in his post already.

[nn30]

...if algebra is scum, it's likely his partner was on the other mob and if algebra is town, I think the scum team benefitted from keeping him alive so he could serve as a good lynch for today...

Option 1) Algebra is town. Scum push for a Shadow vote in order to to keep Algebra around for an easy D2 lynch.

Option 2) Algebra is scum. Scum push for a Shadow vote in order to save their buddy.

In both cases the people on the Shadow wagon need to be scrutinized.


Titus started the Shadow wagon (not with a vote, but with suspicion) in 251. Papa followed it up with a vote in 260 which Empoof then jumped on in 278. Arona hopped on in 286 and Titus followed up with a vote in 287.

I think it's safe to remove Zito from the scum discussion. He was the first to vote Shadow - scum don't like to rock the boat and stick their neck out that way.

By the same logic, I think it's safe to remove Titus as well. She's done the most scum hunting this game. She's suspected and voted for half the town by now.

All that leaves is Empoof.

When Empoof entered the game (194) he had me pinned as his top scum. Since then, he 1) voted Arona and subsequently unvoted him after the two wrote each other books 2) voted for me in 222 and 3) voted for Shadow.

For one, I don't like how he voted for Shadow.

UNVOTE: nn30
VOTE: shadowez
I need to do some soul searching and I want to see shadow's sultry IC words in this thread

This is relevant because he wrote quite a bit about why he voted arona (215) but is comparatively silent on why he votes for Shadow.

The timing of this vote is also suspect - he hopped on a popular wagon. There was no boat to rock by the time he joins.

Then there's his post in 439 where he tries to throw some shade on Papa Zito - this feels thin at best.

For someone who had me pinned as his top scum, he's done next to nothing to scum hunt me.

I'm not a fan.

[nn30]

Algebra was also on the Shadow wagon - but I ignored him for the purpose of my post. No reason to beat a dead horse.

[nn30]

Interesting.
Regarding the part I bolded: IIRC, Zito mentioned suspicions on Shaddow before Titus's 251.
Can you explain a few things about Titus: where has she done the most scum hunting and what does "She's suspected and voted for half the town by now." mean? IIRC, you had Titus high on your suspect list yesterday, when did your opinion change and why?

1) Titus scumhunting - she has stated that myself, Arona, Algebra, and Shadow were scummy at one point or another. She's suspected 4/9 town members so far (almost half). She's also voted on everyone but Arona. When she wagons someone, she pushes

hard

. This suggests to me that she's town. There's nothing about her play that says "I'm trying to blend in."

2) Titus on my suspect list - I was being reactive toward her tunneling me from post one. It was an emotional, rather than a logical, response. It also had to do with some misconceptions I had about how the game is played. I was initially under the impression that the

entire game

was played in 14 days (and not just one day). I also believed that it knowing anything on day one was impossible (since I'm used to 20 minute in person games where day one usually is just a random lynch). Based on how I felt about knowledge on day one, I figured anyone acting as confidently as Titus must be scum.

As the day went on and I 1) read more theory on the wiki and 2) gleaned how scum / town "typically" and "should" play. Her sticking her neck out and actively trying to solve the game are what made me think she's towny.

[nn30]

Regarding Zito's suspicion of Shadow (earlier than Titus 251) - what are you referring to? I found a point where Zito pointed out that Shadow wasn't doing much but that's it. Did I miss something?

[nn30]

@Titus - that's unexpected. Why Zito?

[nn30]

@Titus - I read your 456 twice. Now please assist me in getting my brain into the same space as your brain by using the words.

[nn30]

@Titus - I don't see it in 456. That seems like discussion, not suspicion.

[nn30]

I believe!

[nn30]

I don't recall complaining about anything?

You seem grumpy Titus maybe you should take a nap.

Savage. But in a dad joke way.

[nn30]

I'm waiting on Empoof to get back. Until he does, my line of thought can't go anywhere.

[nn30]

@Empoof - If I'm reading you correctly, your defense of my 445 is that my process of elimination should never have left you as the lone suspect?

I was reading Titus as suspicious of Shadow at that time. Even though you voted before she did, her suspicion came before yours. Rather than initiating the wagon, you joined it.

Can you back up your suspicion of Papa Zito with anything from earlier in the day?

I'd also like to know why you did so little scum hunting of me, your top scumspect.

[nn30]

@Dunhally -35, 135, 328, 345, 431 are the best examples I found which answer your specific question.

Here are some more examples of Titus scum hunting which reinforce my point.

Posts 15, 19, 23, 74, 76, 87, 123, 175 are all examples of Titus suspecting, voting, pushing or defending her suspicion of me.

Posts 59, 61 63, 67, 163, 168, 251, 290, 293, 431 same but Algebra.

Posts 268, 287, 328, 345, 357 same but Shadow.

If there was a scale from "stroking your beard, smoking a cigar, and saying 'hmm... interesting'" to "firing a blowhorn while pointing at your top suspect" Titus would be a champion of the latter.

[nn30]

@Dunhally - wasn't Titus clear in saying that she'd come after Algebra today?

@Morning, I fully intend to come after algebra tomorrow.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding your question.

[nn30]

And I am telling you that I moved off Algebra after the Shaddowez wagon took off. I mentioned Shaddowez trajectory was shit because it was.

Emproof is town.

I am looking for algebra's partner, if he has one.

Empoof town - you're gonna have to give us more to go off of than that.

[nn30]

1) I think it's narrow sighted to write off people like that. There's still the (unlikely but possible) situation of Titus having bussed algebra all D1 and planning to win by being "cleared", but saw the shadow wagon and moved to that one. I get you want to focus on me, and understand why you would, but completely ruling out other targets is foolish.

I disliked your reasoning for leaving off Zito especially, since

he started a counterwagon away from algebra

. For you to ignore that and say that scum don't like to rock the boat really put me off.

2) My suspicion of Papa has to do with earlier in the day. Iso him and look at where he mentions algebra and you'll see the softball questions and a lack of mention of his stance on the algebra lynch - until it's getting close to the wire. That's why I view the post I brought up as hedging bets on the lynch, since I was clueless he was comfortable with it until it was crunch time.

3) I didn't scumhunt you heavily because I was scumhunting arona and then was relatively absent. Read my iso from unvoting arona to lynching shadow and you can see that. As I read through your posts and listened to peoples reasonings I "wanted to do some soul searching" and didn't like shadow's titus push. When he floundered more it was easy to hold the vote.

4) Question: Do you see me pushing a possible Zito scum as rocking the boat?

1) Let's take your logic to it's fullest extent (referring to the bolded). Here are the assumptions you are making for this scenario.

a) Algebra is scum
b) Papa Zito is scum
c) Papa Zito started the counterwagon (260) on Shadow in order to save his scum buddy

How does this play out in later days? Zito knows Shadow will flip town. After that point, the town will likely revert back to bussing whoever it was bussing before switching to Shadow. In this scenario, that's either Algebra or myself (referring to the VC in 237 with myself and Algebra tied). At the point in time where Zito made his play (bussing Shadow) let's say there's a 50/50 chance that he manages to divert the wagon away from Algebra on day two. Is this a logical scum play?

To take this into day 2 speculation (I fully admit that this is difficult to speculate accurately; I'm doing it for the purposes of this thought process).

Then

we have to assume that town won't turn on him (or Algebra) once I flip town. Is this still a play that logical scum would make?

Re-read the interactions between Shadow and Zito leading up to Zito's vote in 260. I think that it's more likely that Zito found Shaddow's actions at the time to be scummy and chose to switch focus to him.

2) Sure, these do seem like softball questions. I'll concede this point, but I do have a question.

How does this read match up with how Zito has been behaving on day two? Please look at 476 and 518 in particular.

3) Why did you choose to scumhunt Arona over me though? I get that you were absent - that's fine - but you chose to go after someone other than your top scumspect.

4) Sure; you're scum hunting a fresh target. That could be seen as rocking the boat.

You could also be trying to divert attention away from Algebra (just as you claim Zito did by bussing Shadow).

It could go either way IMO but I'm leaning towards the latter rather than the former.

[nn30]

1.) Is this a logical scum play - yeah, he found the scummy looking target that Titus was looking at, someone who was ride-or-die algebra=scum, and pushed him while appealing to Titus. This is a beautiful wagon to counterpush. I don't like how you put chance numbers in this, I think looking at a situation like that as a 50/50 isn't good. Algebra is looking worse and worse and Zito needs to find a target that will appeal to a mass audience more. Enter:Shadow

2.) It matches up with Zito taking a backseat early on and trying to gather ground. I dislike him taking a backseat while he was considered so townie by so many people. What does scum!algebra's partner do this day other than bus because algebra's so screwed.

3.) I wrote why I chose to scumhunt arona over you when I voted him - look over those posts. You're stressing this "topscumspect" thing really hard. You can see my behaviour and my reasonings in my iso and I don't think I need to rehash any of that.

4.) HOW AM I DIVERTING ATTENTION AWAY FROM ALGEBRA WHEN HE'S BEEN DEFACTO MY LYNCH TARGET AND CORE FOUNDATION FOR SCUMREADS

2) Does the following change your view on Zito taking a back seat?

I need to stop talking tho, this is newbie game not zito game.

4) He was not your defacto target yesterday. I reviewed wagons - you never cast a vote for algebra. He may be your defacto target today, but anyone who was Algebra's partner would be well into "I need to bus my partner" brain space by now.

@Empoof - A lot of this back and forth isn't super useful at this point. I'll just reply to stuff that I feel is worthwhile.

Now that I think about it, the Arona NK makes you super unlikely to be scum. After you and Arona wrote novels about one another, he appeared to have a strong townread on you. So... a scum!Empoof has no good reason to NK him and plenty of reasons to keep him alive.

As unconvinced as I am by our back and forth, this alone is enough to trump my previous suspicion of you.

[nn30]

Well shit.

[nn30]

Ok, 5 alive means we are in lylo.

Nobody vote. Scum can quickly dual hammer.

What needs to happen now is that we utilize the fact there is a confirmed town or counterclaim to our adapvantage.

1) We use intent to vote statements to generate votes.
2) Someone gets two of these.
3) They claim PR or not.
4) If the person claims PR, anyone has the chance to CC.
5) If no cc, conftown. If a CC happens, there is our lynch pool.
6) If the person we intended to vote on claims VT, they pick the next person.

Intent to Vote Papa in the future

Scum know the plan now and can behave accordingly.

How does this help us?

[nn30]

Titus you're just 100% wrong on the setup right now take a closer look at the grid if jailkeeper is revealed:

Jailkeeper/BPV/Mafia Roleblocker
JailKeeper/VT/Goon

How likely is it that a scum!Titus intentionally "gets the setup wrong?"

[nn30]

Hrm. Okay.

I do disagree.

Poof, who's your top town read and your top scum read?

[nn30]

@Prism - I think that the fact that your #1 scum read is LUV and that your #2 is Boring needs to be reconciled considering that Boring is pushing LUV as well.

[nn30]

Sorry about 581. Wrong game wound up in here.

[nn30]

@Zito - top scum read, top town read, go.

[nn30]

Titus is my top town read rn. What makes you scumread her?

[nn30]

@Zito - Her pushing is scumhunting though. You may not agree with the methods, or the outcomes, but she is scumhunting.

@Titus - the only person I can think of is Empoof, but the Arona kill mucks that up. Do you think Poof would kill off someone who was town reading him?

[nn30]

Dunny asked me this too. Please read my 495.

[nn30]

Additionally I don't think scum would pretend to screw up the setup.

Now she's also an uncountered PR. This adds to my top townread status.

[nn30]

Thanks for pointing out 495, there's a lot there so I'll look into that later. Do you have no concerns that the 3 pushes you mentioned there all happened Day 1 and all happened (from your perspective obv let's not play games) on townies?

Re: Day 1 -

There weren't really any strong pushes on day two. Algebra lynch was a foregone conclusion by the time we got to day 2. So no it doesn't bother me that they all happened on day 1.

Re: Pushing on only townies -

She doesn't have to be

right

to be scumhunting. Though I do see your point - scum "accidentally" only pushing other townies is a possibility. I just don't think that's what's going on here. Her pushes felt genuine to me.

[nn30]

1) I'm not sure how your first bit points to alignment. 2)I'd like you to think through the second again.

1) Think of it in terms of expected outcome. Let's say scum!Titus pretends to not understand the setup.

Outcome options:

a) It will be pointed out to her that she got the setup wrong. The plan, which hinges on her misinterpretation of the setup, is not enacted by town. People interpret her misunderstanding as NAI.
b) It will be pointed out to her that she got the setup wrong. The plan, which hinges on her misinterpretation of the setup, is not enacted by town. People interpret her misunderstanding as a scumtell.
c) It will be pointed out to her that she got the setup wrong. The plan, which hinges on her misinterpretation of the setup, is not enacted by town. People interpret her misunderstanding as a town tell.
d) People don't call her on her misunderstanding, her plan gets enacted, but the remaining town PR doesn't claim.
e) People don't call her on her misunderstanding, her plan gets enacted, and the remaining town PR claims.

Where's the upside? How does this play benefit a Scum!Titus? I see very little to gain from intentionally screwing up the setup.

2) Ahh, I see what you mean. There's no guarantee of a town PR still being in play. Scum!Titus could be lying about the BP since she would know the setup. At best un-countered PR is a 50/50 shot here.

[nn30]

@empoof - I should have made this more clear in my post. Point C is indeed a benefit, but I don't think it's the likely outcome. There are more negatives to the play than positives.

[nn30]

Who said it was intentional?

Me, mostly.

Still - I also don't believe scum would accidentally screw it up either. They're more likely to cross their i's and dot their t's with any post.

She came into the game thinking she was the IC so clearly she's off her meds. The real point here is she was attempting to paint herself as cleared.

I mean, you did that as well on day one ("I'm the towniest town that ever towned!")

[nn30]

@Zito - Self vouch was post 38.

I'm afraid I fail to see any real scumhunting here, nor do I see what's earned your top townread status.

If none of this is scumhunting, would you mind pointing me to examples which

are

scumhunting?

@Titus - post your reasons. Maybe we can help identify the weakest of your town reads.

[nn30]

Well here's the first thing.

You [Nn30] don't really make sense as a Zito buddy. The way Zito is framing you as scum whiteknighting me or my hypothetical buddy isn't exactly likely in a scum!Zito universe. Possible sure. Likely no.

Combined with...

Zito hard buddying that slot doesn't suggest scum.

Doesn't make sense.

Your logic:

1) Zito frames me as scum. Therefore, I must be town.
2) Zito buddies Tweet. Therefore, she must be town.

They both can't be indicators of town.

So either Zito is actually town (I agree, unlikely) or you need you rethink your Morning Tweet read.

[nn30]

Re: Zito scumread - after the Algebra flip, I did an iso of Zito. Other than getting Shadow lynched, he spent most of day one on the sidelines. On day two the most proactive thing he did was to speed up the Algebra lynch. That, coupled with the fact that he refuses to see the possibility of Titus!Town, is resulting in my scum reading him. This is the answer to Empoof's question in 648.

Re: Empoof's questions in 642 - a scum!Zito would have known that Algebra and myself would have flipped town. Since there's no difference between us, he sat on the sidelines (because why bother?) As far as lynching Shadow, I think he saw the opportunity to throw shade on another townie. Unfortunately for us, Shadow's reaction to this felt scummy and he got lynched for it. I don't think Papa ever expected to get a Shadow lynch when he began this wagon.

Titus is my top town read because of the amount of scum hunting she did on day one - which she also carried into day two by investigating Zito. She displayed an earnest attempt to solve the game. I feel that her pushes come from a town mindset.

Papa refusing to admit that Titus was scum hunting furthered my scum read of him. Her style may not be the same that he would employ, but it

is

scumhunting. Refusing to admit that worries me.

[nn30]

I'm willing to vote Papa - not Empoof though.

You must have missed this but I'll ask again.

After D1 Arona was town reading Empoof. Given this, do you think that a scum!Empoof would have killed Arona?

My answer is no.

[nn30]

I don't think that reasoning outweighs the fact that Arona townread Empoof.

[nn30]

The process of elimination says MorningTweet, but that doesn't feel right either.

Are F5's usually this hard?

[nn30]

I think F5's usually don't stem from a townie refusing to play the game all of D2 when they're under the gun.

So that's unusual? Good.

[nn30]

i have work tonight and a busy weekend. So sparingly.

I trust nn30. You can buddy with valid reasoning. The two are separate ideas.

<3

[nn30]

FYI I'm celebrating an anniversary today. I'll put some thoughts into the thread tomorrow most likely.

[nn30]

@Zito - If I were to characterize your D2 it would be with the following three direct quotes and one lightly edited quote.

1) You don't add much to the discussion "on purpose."

I'm purposefully staying quiet atm, I want to let the discussion develop naturally. I am reading everything tho dw.

2) You sassily respond to questions or thoughts posed to you.

can't wait to find out why

3) And you speed up the Algebra lynch.

VOTE: algebra

Post or perish.

4) He scum hunts.

[If Zito did some scum hunting I would quote it here but since he didn't scum hunt day 2 I can't]

As for your "tearing apart" of Titus' scum hunting, all I have to say is that you've got some pretty high standards dude.

[nn30]

can't wait to find out why

VOTE: algebra

Post or perish.

@Xalxe - what's up with the site going down btw? Is that for maintenance or something?

[nn30]

The extra quotes in the previous post were not meant to be there. Sorry bout' that.

[nn30]

@Tweet

I may be cherry picking but my argument is being totally ignored. The alternative to providing useful details - I mean cherry picking - is posting the entire ISO. You can go read that yourself and tell me what you think.

To be perfectly clear, here is what I think of Zito's day 2.

He didn't scum hunt.
He didn't add to any worthwhile discussion.
His biggest contribution was pushing for Algebra to be lynched in early days.

@Zito - Would you like me to post your entire ISO?

[nn30]

@Papa - I've made enough of an effort to prove my case on you.

If another townie wants me to answer more questions on you, I will. But I'm done spinning my wheels directly with you.

Why don't you start building a case of your own instead of responding to the one on you?

[nn30]

I came into today with a game that made little sense. I'm facing a lylo situation with only one solid townread. I've done numerous isodives and looked at vote movements and haven't come up with anything definitive. What to do? In situations like these I fall back on the one thing I'm 100% sure about, which is my own role PM. Since I know I'm town, I can use that to my advantage. I'm inviting people, especially those who have expressed a scumread on me, to make a case. By doing this I can more easily assess their motivations without the (TvT? TvS? SvS?) that two unknowns going at it provides. You'll note I used this technique earlier in this very game.

Regardless of what alignment you end up flipping - I'm glad you're in a newbie game. This was helpful information for me to carry into future games.

For this game in particular - this post doesn't remove my scumread of you.

If you think I'm scum, as you've stated multiple times, you're going to need to convince others to join you in voting me. The best way to do this is to make a case with supporting evidence that definitively shows why I'm more likely scum than town. Why are you refusing to do this, especially when I'm inviting you to do so? Why does the fact that I'm the one asking for it matter in the least if your objective here is to get your scumspect lynched?

I have tried to state a case on you. Funnily enough, you're handwaving it away as unsupported/hand-wavey/cherry picked.

The issue in asking for more detail in my case on you is that it revolves around your

lack

of scum hunting. I can't quote what was never there to begin with.

You're asking me to provide photographic evidence of the non-existence of bigfoot.

How, exactly, do you suggest I do that?

[nn30]

We are officially talking past one another.

[nn30]

...

[nn30]

How does voting Empoof test said theory?

[nn30]

Empoof still being a live after 7 hours suggests that he's scum.

If he were town, two scum would have dog piled him already.

Unless Titus is using this vote to bait a townie into voting Empoof.

Hrm...

Titus having a vote on her, that isn't dog piled yet, also suggest scum. Though Zito and I haven't been here since that vote was cast.

HRM...

[nn30]

@Titus - convince me that killing Arona is in Empoof's best interests. Why would he do this when Arona was town reading him farily strongly.

@Empoof - what are your thoughts on not being dead yet?

[nn30]

I mean, I've been hard town reading her for a while. Something drastic would have to happen for me to change that.

That is happening right now.

p-edit - please expand on mechanics.

[nn30]

You bring up my hard town read on her now? I've been on that thought process for the entirety of D3. Why is this suddenly scummy to you?

Titus voted me and I lived with others posting. Since I'm town she has to be a wolf. 3 town / 2 wolf

This is categorically incorrect. I see two likely possibilities - there is no guarantee which one is correct.

[nn30]

Two possibilities if you're town -

Titus is scum and baiting.
Titus is town and testing the water.

[nn30]

we can't both be town. Leaves 2 red in tweet/papa/nn and they can vote and win the game

Ahh, I see what you're saying. Yeah I'll buy this. One of you is scum.

@Titus - but a scum!empoof would benefit from having Arona around at this very moment. The point of leaving him alive would be to win a lylo.

[nn30]

I was definitely testing what would happen. I did it while I would be here. If I saw someone vote, I would have immediately unvoted. If Empoof was town (meaning my theory was incorrect), he would have gotten votes. Instead, a stalemate happens.

I'm almost convinced. Can you think of a situation where your theory doesn't work?

[nn30]

I would get a null result if you piled on.

Well you currently have as much result as you're going to get.

He's either scum or he isn't.

Your test suggests scum. Why not just lynch him?

[nn30]

I'm ass backwards confused about this now.

They could have pre-planned last night.

[nn30]

@Morning Tweet - nope, I'm still town reading Titus and have a brand new scum read on Empoof.

The fact that Empoof is still alive right now suggests that he's scum. If he were town, two scum would have attempted to dog pile by now.

The alternative is that Titus is scum who hoped to bait a townie into voting for Empoof with her. Once a single town hops on, Titus' scum partner would hammer.

Based on how everything went down last night, I'm thinking Empoof is scum and Titus is town, however.

Mechanically, Empoof's partner is Zito or Morning Tweet.

My money is on Zito.

[nn30]

VOTE: Empoof

[nn30]

That's hammer right?

[nn30]

I just want to confirm - I just hammered Empoof right? So we wait until the mod shows up and flips him?

[nn30]

I just went back and counted 3 votes like, twice.

Unless I'm brain-dead that's hammer.

The scum team was me and Tweet.

[nn30]

For the record - Tweet totally carried my butt across the finish line.

Anything could have happened D3.

That being said so many of you wrote her off as town that I could have done literally anything today and we still win tomorrow.

Surprised I wasn't the lynch here tbh.

[nn30]

I'm not even mad I'm so proud

Lol why?

[nn30]

@Everyone - thanks for playing! I really enjoy this site. I had a lot of fun playing. I'll definitely be back again for more games.

Anyone have some effective scum hunting tips? I'm interested in learning how the game is played from the other side.

Also, Poof, you entered the game and IMMEDIATELY pinned me as scum. Cred.

[nn30]

Alright the last 2 pages of a lot of walls of text (at least on my phone) and our server called in sick so my break is shorter than I want

Reading Papa and Titus as the big townies so far. Papa's 4 page sink hounding Titus was excessive but I actually think it was genuine
Morning Tweet made OneBigPost.jpg and has been silent. Feels like scum hiding in the back after looking townie. I need more on this though.
at first nn looked like confused noob town but then saying algebra was hoping on a wagon without lots of reasoning... while hoping on the algebra wagon without a lot of reasoning... lol
Looking over algebra's small posts I'm actually not as sold as I was before. My main scumread was similar to what I read from others - that he sent Titus to L-1 and then specified later. But I realized the later was literally 6 mins. Otherwise he's reacted to things seemingly genuinely and at least is feigning an attempt at solving the game. Willing to bet he's stubborn town actually. So throw me on his scum team ty
Shadow has been surprisingly absent for being the IC this game - 14 posts in 13 days. Would love more, null atm
Dunhallym wrote novels I haven't read so idk
I wanna iso arona because every post felt like a rollercoaster ride for me for some reason so I'll hold a null for now

AND THATS THE GAME W0W

nn is my top scum now, will flesh out when I get off work if I feel like it and I'll start being an Active Towns Member now

You called the game in one post.

CRED

[nn30]

Also, ftr, tweet is a her.

Yeah - thanks Xalxe!

[nn30]

Jfc?

[nn30]

In post 767, nn30 wrote:
For the record - Tweet totally carried my butt across the finish line.
That's so untrue, I feel like everyone townread me by PoE

This may be true.

But you being town by PoE is a direct result of the 'analysis' you've been posting.

You being town means everyone was focused on nn/x scumteams which don't include nn/tweet.

GG.

[nn30]

@Titus - how close were you to coming around on me being scum?

[nn30]

Wait, are trophies a thing on this site? I thought it was a joke.

[nn30]

PoE got you.

Algebra couldn't die - he was lynch for day 2

Titus/Papa yelled at each other a lot - let's let them continue to do that.

Empoof called the game in one post - killing him would lead back to us.

It was you or Dunny and we arbitrarily chose you.

[nn30]

hot damn the shoving about the night kill from nn while it might lead to them

Wat?

[nn30]

Zito - why is your name green now?

[nn30]

Where can I look at these statistics?