Open 702: Vanilla Nightless Game Over
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Impede Goon
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How is RVS over?In post 18, mozamis wrote:so rvs i sover, happy to get a wagon going on archwing
Why Arch in particular?- Impede
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Impede Goon
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Second.In post 40, LaserGuy wrote:cytheflyguy is Town.
Comm, I'd also like to see some rationale for your wagon analysis. Seemed kind of off. I would consider it a possibility if you said there's at least one scum in Arch's wagon, but that's not super helpful to begin with.- Impede
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Leaning town on this too.In post 34, Lucky2u wrote:... that just makes it seem like you picked any of the names without pattern and said scum are in there. It makes it look super lazy since there is another wagon at 2 as well so you just picked the top 2 wagons in the VC, by position in format not by vote count amount.
FoS Commknight.- Impede
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Sorry guys! Slowly but surely catching up. Crazy work day today. Will post as I catch up and notice anything of significance.
In post 93, Lucky2u wrote:I am asking you what YOU think valid reasoning is. I've already given you my reasoning, and last I checked I think my own reasoning is valid. Don't dodge the question. Give me an example of what you think valid reasoning is to move forward with a vote right now.
Luca pings me pretty hard here. All of his retorts are attacks, not actual valid responses to a line of questioning. Tons of AtE rather than actual meaningful content.In post 94, Luca Blight wrote:You had no reasoning, just guesswork. There is no particular reason for you to believe Comm is lying about fishing for reactions, and given that everyone fishes for reactions to some degree in RVS you really need to have something to make your vote hold water.- Impede
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Holy hell you guys post a lot. Trying to keep up. Give me to tomorrow afternoon to get off my phone and on a PC so I can digest all this. I recognize there are votes on me. I'll respond. Just need to get to a computer. I am totally not a lurker btw. Just hardcore swept up in RL job stuff right now. I think it'll die down, but if not, I'll do you the courtesy of replacing out.
Also, regarding AtE, I misused it a bit. I was more referring to Luca's emotional as opposed to rational/reasoned responses. If you think I'm off base, tell me. More tomorrow. Need to put a readslist together to sort this mess. Should be fun.
Night all.- Impede
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Rereading the entire thread at this point, since I feel completely out of touch with this game right now. You were absolutely right about Luca. Upon reread I don't really get any emotional responses from him. Dunno where I was coming from with that. Doing a post-by-post until I get caught up and then I'll drop a readslist (which will hopefully answer a lot of questions directed at me and get at my thought process).
Spoiler: Wall of quotes
More coming...- Impede
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How did 90 by Zaraki get ignored? It's so delightfully odd. Some thoughts:
This is a weird defense-bordering-on-buddying. You can't call someone's post well-composed unless you have meta background for them or some evidence that they put an extraordinary amount of thought, self-consciousness, or caution into their authoring of it. Also, if you could show that they did, I would scumread that pretty hard. Scum tends much more strongly towards caution and careful, self-aware posting than town does.In post 90, Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez wrote: Second, Cy's post isverywell composed for a scum post. Now, don't get me wrong, I've played games with very convincing scum, but there's always some... drywall sticking out. His post feels genuine.
Third, Meh. Call it gut instinct.
How will you ever find scum using this? If I look at your sorting of cy's posts, you are pretty generous with him. Very subjective.In post 90, Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez wrote:Lastly, I'm going to use my favorite probability device, Punnett's Square. (Yes, I know it's for genetics, but I re-purposed it. It works.) This will be regarding Cy and Comm.
Let us presume the dominant gene would be town, resulting in town being (T). Scum, however would be the "recessive" gene, and thus come out as (s). So, our square would look like this.
TT | Ts
--------
Ts | ss
As we can see, the chances of only scum are fairly slim, at only a 25% chance. The chances of it being only town however, is also at a 25%. However, the chance of it being both town and scum is 50%, making it the most likely. We can also safely presume that at least one of them is town with a 75% chance of it being true. So, if we overlap the majorities, Ts is our most likely bet.
You are notably more objective in your analysis of Comm, but you clearly were not trying to be objective in your sorting of him, so I'm inclined to discard this (even though I think you make a couple decent points).In post 90, Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez wrote:We then peer at Commknight. He has 7 posts.
4 of these, are defensive posts. 75% are simply while good counters, are very short, and quite frankly, answer none of the questions posed to them (33, 36, 38). The other 25% is fluff. Pure fluffy fluff. (46)
1 of his posts go to RVS, and I'm going to ignore that, as there is little value in that post, although his wording is somewhat peculiar. (Notice, he is the only one to ever mention scum as a reason for RVS).
Furthermore, the whole post counting/sorting and town/scum probability approach seems woefully unreliable to me. In fact, I'd expect scum to be much more cautious in their posting which would lead this tool to potential false scumreads of town players who are just throwing out posts based on their gut reactions. You need to go at least a layer deeper in your analysis too. Posts that go out of their way to NOT look scummy, are often written by SCUM. If you take them at face value, you are potentially getting the opposite result... this is why LAMIST is a thing.
Slightscumleanon Faraki from all of this. Might attribute this to his meta though, so curious what he/others have to say.- Impede
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Yeah. This. Guess Zaraki's post didn't get completely ignored lolIn post 95, Sesq wrote:you seem to have not accounted for the fact that only a third of players are scum. and this statistical analysis.... it doesnt work. posts dont work like that. people dont work like that. logic doesnt work like that. nothing works like that. the only thing in mafia that even remotely works like that is votes, and even then its fairly inconsistent. and player counts i guess, but you cant do a lot with that. and maybe some other things in different setups but WHATEVER
and ultimately you just make the same conclusion you would have without the math. cy looks productive you and comm looks unproductive to you, because there is ZERO. objectivity in that report of yours. none at all. i think cy is mostly just saying lamist bullshit and meandering while comm is taking a strong but, difficult position and saying exactly what he needs to say with brevity.
hahaha luca broke. i empathize heavily.- Impede
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That might be somewhat true actually. I've been so behind this game that some of my posts have been thrown out in the 5 minutes I have to stare at my phone while on the pot.In post 107, mozamis wrote:
agree with this, impedes question seemed a bit pointless when i had clealr said why i was votng archer. making a post for the sake of making a post.In post 52, Luca Blight wrote:My first serious vote will be going to a player who has had a very passive opening; in 27 he's trying to look busy, 41 is a useless post where he's just echoing what's already been said without directly involving himself with the Comm wagon, 42 is just an inexplicably easy townread.
FOS IMPEDE
In any case, I posted my 27 in complete ignorance of your 17 for whatever reason. No idea why. Forgive the bad play up until now. Anything henceforth, feel free to wagon me for lol.
You DID make it clear what your vote rationale was, and it's understandable that you said RVS is over after your first serious vote. I probably would have picked up on it if it were in the same post.
On a sidenote: Moz's posting is rather sporadic and quick... lot's of multiposts, not particularly well thought out (like whoever said scum normally presses preview 15 times on every post). Normally inclined to townread this type of behavior, but I've seen him do it before and don't know his meta well enough to understand if this is just standard Moz play or if it's AI in any way.- Impede
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This sucks. Weak PoE. Also makes me think you're town.In post 130, mozamis wrote:OK, so P.O.E time:
Town= Moz, Sesq, Lucca, Lucky, Zaraki, Comm
So scum in: archer, impede, cyber, cult, voyager, laser guy
thats four scum in 6 , good odds!
out of those 6, gun to head i would say scum team is: archer, impede, cult and voyager- Impede
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Yeah. See my earlier post. My foot is already epically in my mouth multiple times over this game. Hoping to try and establish some added value credibility here on out.In post 143, UC Voyager wrote:Luca doesn't ATE. I don't remember seeing ATE from him, and i doubt he is actually doing it. he has a solid game style. no need to change
are you sure you know what ATE is? IF not, it is appeal to emotion. Im sure you know this though- Impede
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In post 162, Sesq wrote:HAHAHAH TWO MINUTES AFTER HE
AHAHHAHAHHAHAHA
ok ill read the post now
standard fluff..... whateverIn post 163, mozamis wrote:wow what a scummy load of nothingness from impede lolIn post 164, mozamis wrote:if you are town busy in RL, you would still throw out a few reads. He managed to say nothing a quite a long para.In post 165, Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez wrote:Well, that sure as hell wasn't a convenient good night, right when the pressure got tougher. Impede is starting to look scummier, with his lurk play.
On an out of context side note:How ironic there's so much posting this late at night on a nightless game.
RIP. Was basically making a "stfu and let me get around to making a real post" post. Guess that worked against me. I do alright with pressure TBH. I actually went to bed there lol. My tendency under pressure is to admit to sub-optimal play (because otherwise why would I be sus?) and apologize for being an idiot or not being contributory. I think I've already done this a couple times lmao.In post 166, Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez wrote:Ironically, I was scum in my first newbie game, and I fucked up royally. I also pulled the same, night bye! Too much pressure move.
Anyways. If you still think I'm off-base after my catch-up (still in progress), feel free to wagon it up. Better to clear me based on my L-1 responses or just PL me than let me drag down town's game (if that's what you think is happening).- Impede
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Agree with most of this. I don't think Luca is particularly scummy. Would be interested to see the rationale for that. Agree with your assessment of Moz, but I think it's just "not the best" town play rather than an actual scumtell.In post 167, LaserGuy wrote:Post #90 from Zaraki is a hot mess. There's a lot that's weird here... like he says he townread cy between 39 and 50 when he posted that read on #43. Gives cy credit both for my reasoning (dumb tell), but also having a well-composed post which... isn't really something that is hard to fake. Big probability argument that doesn't prove anything. This all looks like bs to me, and this seems like a really excessive explanation to his initial read in #43. I don't believe for a second this was his reasoning at the time he posted his townread of cy. Leaning scum on him, and if Zaraki is scum, would not be surprised if one of cy or Comm turns up scum as well.
Sesq looking good. Lucky looking scummy, Luca too. (Did we seriously have a Lucca, Luca and Lucky? Can we lynch of these characters on general principle?)
Comm is null. Did he ever explain why he made that initial post about the wagons? Doesn't really look like it. #55 of his is bothering me a bit, but need to think on it some more.
I don't like #126/#127 from mozamis. FoS on a replacement that has just joined the game off a null slot? Townread on lucky for effort? Bleh.
Impede has done nothing productive so far. Archwing is just as bad.- Impede
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Finally caught up. Here's where I'm at as far as reads. Not going to post a ton of rationale since I need to get back to work (on lunch right now), but most of it is in my previous posts from the past hour. Feel free to question anything in particular that doesn't jive and I'll explain.
TowntoNulltoScum:
Sesq, Moz
UCV*, Luca, Cy----slight
Laser*, Comm----leaning town
CoA*, Arch('s slot)*----leaning scum
Lucky, Zaraki
*indicates a need for more content. Don't feel great about these reads.- Impede
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Lynch me then. If you're going to be irrational and not provide measured responses and confirmation bias me the entire game, it would be easier for me and better for town if we got it over with.In post 188, Sesq wrote:Obvious Scum Gets Caught And Moves To The Side With All The Town
also, don't be like "well, you're actually kinda wrong about these things;" when you can't say why i am, because i am not, because i have never made any mistake this entire game. i am the flawless townie. Breathe. Breathe.
you still look like scum.- Impede
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Because he's clearly not read my posts and is falling victim to conf bias. Don't like his playstyle at all. If I'm going to be on the receiving end of it all game for no reason then I'll either have to get used to ignoring it or end up dead. It's a waste because I feel relatively strongly that he's town and should be going after players presenting legitimate scumtells.In post 194, UC Voyager wrote:why would you ask someone to lynch you?
tbh, this looks like ATE to me. and the fact you were trying use ATE earlier disturbs me.- Impede
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This is kind of irrational and not town-productive. You must know that you would never get the level of rationale you required in 89. Why are you pretending like it was a fair request? And how would you define "Luca logic"?In post 98, Lucky2u wrote:
Youre still not providing an example, because you can't provide one. We are just evaluating people's reactions in interactions and deciding ourselves wether it's coming from scum or town. Let's turn this around Luca, we are several pages in, what are your reads and why? **disclaimer, I will be using your own logic to your reads, so unless you read the entire playlist as null, I'll expect you to defend your opinions against "There is no particular reason for you to believe that X is Y"In post 94, Luca Blight wrote:You had no reasoning, just guesswork. There is no particular reason for you to believe Comm is lying about fishing for reactions, and given that everyone fishes for reactions to some degree in RVS you really need to have something to make your vote hold water.- Impede
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All good lol. I definitely agree that confbias is a town move. Hence why I'm accusing my strongest town read of being guilty of it.In post 201, UC Voyager wrote:lol. why did i think this said you were scum reading moz and Luca...... my bad. i miss read- Impede
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I don't think that's what he was getting at. I think he was cautioning you from making a scum read on something that is heavily WIFOM-ladenIn post 203, Lucky2u wrote:
You can't prove it, thus you shouldn't act on it. For example, whats your scum case on me?In post 197, Impede wrote:And how would you define "Luca logic"?
Doesn't matter, you don't have proof I'm not just bad town so you shouldn't scum read me.- Impede
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How is it not? Scum!Comm could be trying to distract from actual scum and Town!Comm could be reaction fishing. Both of these are equally legitimate possibilities, esp since we were so close to RVS. Do you disagree?In post 208, Lucky2u wrote:I'm obviously taking it to the extreme but I don't feel my reason for voting comm was wifom at all- Impede
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In post 199, UC Voyager wrote:Luca has a really good play style. i have seen him figure out who the scum is several times. He takes a good approach to the game as well. What he is doing now isn confbias. if he was confbias, he would probably be on me right now.
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=73370
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=73677
these are some examples of when i confbias. confbias generally doesn't happen til nylo or mylo.@UCV: Just to be super clear, I think we understand each other now more or less, but don't want you to think incorrectly. I was referring to Sesq with the confbias comment. In fact I don't think I've addressed Luca directly much at all. Also, what is "NYLO"? Typo?- Impede
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Ah, so same as LYLO then.In post 211, Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez wrote:NYLO I would presume means No-lynch and lose.- Impede
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There's some definite fence–sitting happening. Can't say if there is an actual attempt at pocketing, but I don't really know UCVs metaIn post 215, Luca Blight wrote:He has also made a lot of 'on the fence' comments, as is his style as scum:- Impede
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DraaaaaamaaaaaIn post 230, CultOfAthena wrote:Don't worry about it.- Impede
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The only buzzword was confirmation bias, for the record. It is a bit LAMIST admittedly. I just wanted you to say something meaningful instead of just posting your blurted out, hair-trigger reactionsIn post 231, Sesq wrote:this buzzword string is a fucking perfect storm of comedy
@voy its not ate. its lamist
Pedit: @Luca: I tend to be a strike two voter. Once I convince myself that I agree there's scumminess on more than one occasion, I'll hop right on. I haven't ISO'd UCV yet, so give me a minute.- Impede
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Comm, why do you townlean Cy and scum lean Moza?In post 235, CommKnight wrote:{Luca, Cult, Sesq}
{cy, UC}
{Zaraki, Impede, Laser}
{Lucky, moza, Zulfy}
Getting a better feel of people now and moza and Lucky are definitely on the bottom right now. Luca, Cult and Sesq are off the table for today (though Sesq is definitely being looked at more in future days), Cy and UC are more town leans and the rest are more meh. Zulfy is more of an educated gut feel.
People should vote Lucky.- Impede
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Are you my dad?
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Who is the townie in this scenario?In post 262, Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez wrote:Also, poliy lynching for not playing to your ideal of good town play is no good. Scum need lynching, not townies.- Impede
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You've been one of my null-leaning-scum reads, but it was mostly for lack of content. You're posting since seems to be town-motivated. I think I'll leave you as Null, but might be leaning a bit more Town than before. Once I reformulate my readslist, I'll do some more in-depth analysis.In post 269, CultOfAthena wrote:I've seen some questioning of townreads on me which implies that either the people asking those questions disagree or are having trouble forming their own reads on me. @Those people, what're your takes on me?- Impede
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Not really what I was getting at.In post 339, Luca Blight wrote:Basically you're asking me how UCV's behaviour this game could come from a Town perspective?
If so, you should ask that question to whoever is against UCV's lynch.
But I think I've seen enough. The fence sitting looks bad enough, but combined with that jankity vote it just comes off wrong.
VOTE: UC Voyager
This is L-2 by my count- Impede
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Meh. It's a lose-lose tbh. He flips scum and you'll accuse me of bussing, he flips town and you'll accuse me of being scum trying to fly under the radar. I'm more or less resigned to getting lynched sooner than later. Hoping I can conjure up some added value analysis for you all to ignore until it gains credibility when I flip.- Impede
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@Luca: I wasn't asking you to defend your read (Moz...) or defend a town!UCV position. I was asking you what behavior you would expect from town!UCV. He is accusing you of scumreading him no matter what. So in what scenario would you say "damn UCV seems towny af right now".
pedit: @UCV: my vote was parked on Moz from RVS, not on you. Dunno why you'd ask this. Also your question about what your town meta is is exactly what I'm getting at with my Q to Luca- Impede
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Lawyers ask questions with the goal of discrediting the person they are asking or catching them in self-incrimination. Why WOULDN'T you be asking lawyer questions?In post 352, mozamis wrote:anothe rgood reason impede is scu, for asking such an awful "lawyer" like question.- Impede
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Fair, as long as you are being honest with yourself. If he flips town you're going to come under a lot of scrutiny.In post 365, Luca Blight wrote:Impede - I understand your question now. I still don't want to answer it however for a couple of reasons: a) it will influence how UCV is playing now and b) it will influence him in possible future games which will make it harder for me to read him.- Impede
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If you had a brain, you'd realize I'm questioning Luca with the GOAL of boosting the credibility of his read (or potentially undermining it if his read is bad). You're impossibleIn post 363, mozamis wrote:@ Impede - you are voting UV. So you think he is scum, right?
and yet you are more concerned with arguing with Lucca than pshing your scum read. you are scum.- Impede
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Doubt it. I think you're being genuine. But people tend to be quite shallow.In post 369, Luca Blight wrote:Are you saying if UCV flips Town you would be scumreading me?- Impede
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@UCV: Buddying and fence sitting are great scumtells. You have to read personality/meta into it though because certain people (myself included) tend to be hesitant to state hard and fast conclusions without a great degree of confidence and might have a naturally agreeable disposition. This can come off like fencesitting and buddying. That's why I wanted to try to understand your meta a bit more, but having my second-biggest townread say "I know this guy and this is his scum game" kind of puts the nail in the coffin IMO. But that's also why I asked him what he thinks your town meta looks like.- Impede
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This. This is what gives me pause. Is his frustration due to Luca falsely scumreading him? Or because he doesn't want to be "that scum" that gets lynched on D1 and it's all happening because Luca reads him like a book?In post 409, CultOfAthena wrote:I'm just trying to put myself in the shoes of someone lynched so often day one, and I'm wondering when some element of frustration would come into that.- Impede
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It's generally scummy to not be on a wagon unless you have demonstrated a trajectory towards a townread of that person. This game is A bit unique however... no NK means that scum necessarily have to wagon effectively, so I think Moz's observation that this wagon is slow is most definitely a good sign. Although I'd expect a crap ton of bussing D1 and possibly D2 (at least until we lynch scum), so there's a chance multiple scum are on this wagon already to get their bus pass (just made up that term... hope it catches on).- Impede
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- Posts: 946
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Impede Goon
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- Posts: 946
- Joined: October 25, 2017
- Location: California
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Impede Goon
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- Posts: 946
- Joined: October 25, 2017
- Location: California
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Impede Goon
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- Posts: 946
- Joined: October 25, 2017
- Location: California
I did the same thing FYI. Although granted it was based off of insufficient content at the time.In post 481, Luca Blight wrote:He makes a point of stating UCV as a town-lean, but without any actual explanation for this.- Impede
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Impede Goon
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Lmao... If we go 4/4 on lynches this game I'm having a plaque made for Luca.
Now that we are post-flip I could explain why I would townread Luca quite hard even if UCV flipped town, but I'd rather not offer it up as a tool for a free townread for scum going forward. Although you can probably guess why.- Impede
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Impede Goon
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This is manufactured.In post 478, cytheflyguy wrote:Holy fucking shit.
I'm too tired to actually respond to what happened.
But holy shit.- Impede
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Impede Goon
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Sesq already remarked this in his own way, but most of the readslists you posted actually did have rationale associated with them, but they were in that person's ISO. It's not uncommon for someone to form opinions on events/posts as they transpire and then summarize them in a readslist at some point. I can't see how you'd be so detached from this game to actually hold this opinion...In post 324, cytheflyguy wrote:Including myself and excluding UVC, there are four other people who gave little/literally no reasoning for their reads. I feel that UVC's meta has blinded you in the order of who you want to lynch, but these should be addressed as well down the line if we're reasoning that poor reads=a larger likelihood of being scum or not.
This also aged poorly, as now that we know UCV is scum, it comes off as Alignment-Informed. "I feel that UVC's meta has blinded you in the order of who you want to lynch, butthese should be addressed as well down the lineif we're reasoning that poor reads=a larger likelihood of being scum or not." I could be wrong, but that bolded portion almost says "once we lynch UCV and he flips scum, we should also scrutinize these people".
On the other hand, it's kind of obvscum to come to the defense of a partner on D1, but Occam's Razor and all....
VOTE: cytheflyguy- Impede
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Impede Goon
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Definitely not saying you made a good point, so you can rest easy there.In post 493, cytheflyguy wrote:I'm sorry but this is such a bad argument. Are you're saying I made a good point at a time but it's too good because it seems like I knew UVC's role?- Impede
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Impede Goon
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Who cares? He was right, and IMO he was right for the right reasons. Do you still question his rationale? You must see that it wasn't purely meta-based. There were a couple conclusions that were easier to come to based on meta (i.e: that it wasn't JUST UCV's personality that made him fence-sit and buddy).In post 493, cytheflyguy wrote:I'm sorry but I have to call bullshit. I was pointing out his hypocrisy as well. We could only judge UVC off of what we knew unless we did the meta ourselves. Luca never once gave quotes from other games with UVC. UVC did the same thing other people did with the four fucking posts Luca called UVC out on. But however they, for some unknown reason, did not appear on Luca's radar as hard. He was truly blinded by his tunnel. He was also correct. These are not mutually exclusive terms.
Why are you getting so worked up? We're just following logical conclusions. No need to get all defensive. There's not even a wagon on you yet, and if there was, it would be reckless to pursue it overly quickly when we still have the entire day left. You have plenty of time to try to act town before L-1.- Impede
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Impede Goon
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How are you guys this absurdly dense?!?! Was my 338 THAT difficult to understand?! The number one objection to Luca's read of UCV was that he always scumreads UCV regardless of behavior. What's the easiest way to prove that wrong? If Luca provides a contrasting scenario where he would hypothetically TOWNREAD UCV. This is what I was asking for. I was by no means defending UCV.In post 511, LaserGuy wrote:Luca cases UCV in 303, so interactions following this are ones where Scum!Impede needs to decide whether to defend his buddy or not. #338 he sort of defends UCV ("what would you consider the not scummy alternative to UCV's behavior?", then goes for the vote on him in 347. He makes an attempt to defend his #338 question when moz and Luca give him a hard time about it, but drops this line very quickly, with only a half-hearted attempt again in 411. Interestingly, while there's tonnes of back-and-forth between Impede/UCV prior to Luca's case, they go totally silent on each other as soon as Luca starts going after UCV in earnest.
Luca understood the question. Moz STILL doesn't which is annoying af because he keeps asking me and accusing me of the same crap.
Also, think for a second WHY I was responding to UCV so much. There was a lot of pressure on me and I was being questioned BY UCV. When the pressure shifted to UCV, this back and forth ceased (especially since UCV kept misreading/mischaracterizing my posts and laid off it once I cleared it up).
Take your scumglasses off for a second and look at the situation objectively.- Impede
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Impede Goon
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I should clarify. Luca didn't understand the question right away, but did shortly after I clarified in 360, at which point he declined to provide the answer.In post 516, Impede wrote:Luca understood the question. - Impede
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