Newbie 1741 - Game Over
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nn30 Mafia Scum
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Hey everyone!
I've played some mafia in real life but never online. It'll be interesting to play without the help of body language tells - let's see how this goes!
I'll start us off with some strategy talk...
Since there are 7 town and 2 mafia it's unlikely that a day one lynch will be useful (since we're unlikely to land on a mafia). I'm in favor of a day one no lynch.-
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nn30 Mafia Scum
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In post 11, algebra wrote:Any no lynches give the town a mathematical disadvantage, bad idea
What's the math on that?-
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nn30 Mafia Scum
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@Dunhallym Do you like my sweet new avatar? Roll a d20 to see how you react to it.
@Dunhallym - In all seriousness, a no lynch day one is something I would go for and have gone for in real life. In RL, you can play a 9 person game in 20 minutes. There's not nearly as much time on day one to gather information on people. In this case, the day one lynch is actually just random (or you just point it at the trickiest person in the game regardless of the tells you have on them). Odds are you kill a townie by accident this way and get no real good information out of it.
But, I'm quickly realizing that the way games go online are significantly different than the way they go in real life.
There's been more conversation on day one of this game than I've ever seen in real life. I see now that the information which can be gathered is useful. Plus, with the nature of a running forum, you can hold people accountable for what they said and who they associated with on day one.
Probs just paranoid. I think they're just they were just the two most active people so they ended up talking to each other.In post 72, ecane wrote:I don't know if I'm being paranoid here or what, but I could potentially see this Titus/Papa Zito business being SvS.
Meh, probably just paranoid really. That's not the talk for now anyways... Everyone hasn't even posted yet...
I mean... maybe... but if self preservation were triggered by one vote mafia is not the right game for me to be playing.In post 76, Titus wrote:In post 75, Papa Zito wrote:
Seriously, did you not put together that newbie scum might suggest no lynch because they fear getting lynched?
@shaddowez @titus why are you voting algebra? Post 48 seems legit to me - lets gather more information before we go into the night.
I'll add to the heat as well.
VOTE: shadowez-
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nn30 Mafia Scum
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nn30 Mafia Scum
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I play a lot of games with a guy in real life. Lets call him Kyle (not his real name). He teaches everyone the game, leads the discussion the whole time, and then everyone votes him out of the game because he's also the most experienced (e.g. able to trick us).
I'm also voting for shaddowez because he's our inexperience challenged player. Rawr.
>:(-
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nn30 Mafia Scum
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So here's where my thoughts are right now. Please chime in if you agree / disagree.
Townie feeling - Dunhallym - entered the game and gave some good analysis on what was going on. This is difficult to do as scum since pretending to do analysis on who is and isn't scum is difficult when you already know the answer.
Townie feeling - Aronagrundy - more of a feeling than anything, but she seems genuine town.
Scummy feeling - Algebra - quick to go along with a lynch vote but isn't offering much in the way of reasoning. Maybe because he knows the people he's putting votes on aren't scum.
Scummy feeling - Titus - five pages in and he won't let go of his scum tell on me. Is it so hard to believe that a newbie would think a no lynch is good?
Scummy feeling - Morning Tweet - post 81 was the tell. Read page three up to post 81. Tweet's analysis comes out of nowhere basically. As I said above it's difficult to do analysis as scum, no?
No reads - everyone else.
Whatever happens, I just want day one to be over. Nothing here is set in stone - I want to see if scum do before I make any concrete conclusions.-
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nn30 Mafia Scum
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@Morning Tweet
I assume you mean Dunhallym and not Arona? That's who I referred to in my post anyways.
Dunhallym - post 91 - She came in and asked a number of good questions about what had happened so far. Her thoughts were well developed and I agree with most of her sentiments.
Your post (81) was kind of rambly and commented on something which, judging by page three, was a dead topic at the time.-
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nn30 Mafia Scum
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I don't know where you got the idea that I'm phased. You don't get to Donald Trump this conversation (e.g. declare something to be true and then have it indeed be true).
In post 115, Papa Zito wrote:
BTW if this is your criteria your vote should be on me.In post 104, nn30 wrote:I play a lot of games with a guy in real life. Lets call him Kyle (not his real name). He teaches everyone the game, leads the discussion the whole time, and then everyone votes him out of the game because he's also the most experienced (e.g. able to trick us).
fear my join date
lolClearly a joke.
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nn30 Mafia Scum
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@papa zito - no read because you're talking so much it blurs everything. Remember, I only have RL to compare to - and in RL the most talkative person just means they're experienced. I've been carried by a talkative townie and I've been tricked by a talkative scum as well.
@dunhallym - you're right, it was weird that I left with my vote on papa instead of on someone I felt was scummy.
VOTE: algebra
L-1 I believe.-
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nn30 Mafia Scum
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I'm playing it like it's a game.In post 125, Titus wrote:Great, so according to your own words, we're far out of RVS but you're still joking around?
Also, given your behavior towards my push, my reply details the fact you are phased. That's pretty true. Stop trying to be bigman on campus if you're town. Stop joking around. A joke is ok, but retracting a vote based on its a joke doesn't make any sense. You seem to be doing whatever it is that gets people to like you. Well guess what I like odd balls.
I'm having fun with it.-
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nn30 Mafia Scum
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In post 38, Papa Zito wrote:I am so helping rn.
Generate discussion? Check.
Scumhunt? Check.
Pushing wagon? Check.
I'm the towniest town the ever towned and you know it, that's why you aren't even accusing me of anything.
You could be like
"ayy this zito guy's pushing bs on me vote: zito"
or
"ayy let's dissect or hell even question this zito guy what's pushing a wagon and got me to L-2 on page 2"
but nah you're just like
"this is fine" #firedog
@Papa ZitoIn post 135, Papa Zito wrote:@Titus: Dunny mentioned I'm tunneling you.
wellIn post 133, nn30 wrote:@papa zito - no read because you're talking so much it blurs everything.
Primarily I've been digging at Titus this whole time. Look at the questions I'm asking and observations I'm making. Do you think those further a scum agenda or a town one? Why?
The nice thing about the forum game is you can always go back and review things. I'll point you to the "Iso" feature - scroll to the bottom of the page, below the quick reply box, and you'll see "Display posts by user: "
If you select my name and push Go the page will refresh with just my posts. Even better you can push the [+] button next to it:
Now you can see our full back-and-forth. Neat!
Thanks for pointing out the iso feature, very helpful.
Here are the things I see you doing.In post 135, Papa Zito wrote:
Look at the questions I'm asking and observations I'm making. Do you think those further a scum agenda or a town one? Why?
1) Trying to force Titus' thought process into the open. This furthers a town agenda because it fosters transparency that we can later reference. We can use this information to either catch her in a fib or determine that she is indeed town.
2) You're tunneling Titus. This one could go either way. It could further the town agenda because you're genuinely trying to vet Titus and her actions. It could also further scum agenda because if everyone is focused on Titus, they aren't focused on the real scum (presumably you and your buddy).
3) [quote="In post 114 Why am I having to drag this shit over multiple pages?[/quote]
This leads me to believe that point two, while it could go either way, should be leaning town. You seem genuinely pissed that Titus is being difficult and not answering questions. This would stem from your desire to find out if you and her are actually on the same team or not.
At the time this quote was merely hilarious. Now, four pages later, the only accusation or vote you've accumulated is my joke vote. This holds a little more weight than it did on page two. What could this mean?In post 38, Papa Zito wrote:I am so helping rn.
I'm the towniest town the ever towned and you know it, that's why you aren't even accusing me of anything.
Option 1) You're the towniest town that ever towned.
Option 2) You're the smoothest talking scum that ever scummed.
This exercise has illuminated that I should be getting a town vibe from you.
HOWEVER.
This game has also taught me not to trust anyone and especially not on day one. I've been burnt many times by trusting someone who I knew to be good at the game. I'm still inclined to stick with original feeling - no read - but I will acknowledge that the needle has moved towards town.-
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Cleaned up version. I hope this works.
@Papa Zito
Thanks for pointing out the iso feature, very helpful.
Here are the things I see you doing.In post 135, Papa Zito wrote:
Look at the questions I'm asking and observations I'm making. Do you think those further a scum agenda or a town one? Why?
1) Trying to force Titus' thought process into the open. This furthers a town agenda because it fosters transparency that we can later reference. We can use this information to either catch her in a fib or determine that she is indeed town.
2) You're tunneling Titus. This one could go either way. It could further the town agenda because you're genuinely trying to vet Titus and her actions. It could also further scum agenda because if everyone is focused on Titus, they aren't focused on the real scum (presumably you and your buddy).
3) You seem genuine?
That's either really good fake anger, or genuine anger. I assume you're mad because, if you and Titus are both town, she is wasting your time.In post 114, Papa Zito wrote: Why am I having to drag this shit over multiple pages?
At the time this quote was merely hilarious. Now, four pages later, the only accusation or vote you've accumulated is my joke vote. This holds a little more weight than it did on page two. What could this mean?In post 38, Papa Zito wrote:
I'm the towniest town the ever towned and you know it, that's why you aren't even accusing me of anything.
Option 1) You're the towniest town that ever towned.
Option 2) You're the smoothest talking scum that ever scummed.
This exercise has illuminated that I should be getting a town vibe from you.
HOWEVER.
This game has also taught me not to trust anyone and especially not on day one. I've been burnt many times by trusting someone who I knew to be good at the game. I'm still inclined to stick with original feeling - no read - but I will acknowledge that the needle has moved towards town.[/quote]-
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I ask a question.In post 97, nn30 wrote:@shaddowez @titus why are you voting algebra? Post 48 seems legit to me - lets gather more information before we go into the night.
I answer my own question (since nobody answered it).In post 118, nn30 wrote:Scummy feeling - Algebra - quick to go along with a lynch vote but isn't offering much in the way of reasoning. Maybe because he knows the people he's putting votes on aren't scum.
I act on that thought.In post 133, nn30 wrote:VOTE: algebra-
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In post 162, Titus wrote:
Nn30 does appear to be scared of rope, but this counter seems a little opportunistic.
@Titus what counter are you referring to?-
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@AlgebraIn post 172, algebra wrote:When nn30 flips red we should definitely consider Titus
What you just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. I award you no points, and may god have mercy on your soul.
We've only just gotten out of the stage of the game where Titus is tunneling on me. Now that she's moved her scum radar to someone other than me, she's suddenly suspicious? How does that even make sense?
Your contribution to this game has consisted of votes (without accompanying logic) or votes (with an accompanying one liner). You've contributed basically nothing of substance as towhyyou feel the way you feel. If you're actually town (unlikely) this is frustrating to play with.-
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@arona - Algebra's post in 172 doesn't make sense because Titus has been on me the entire game. Just because she looks elsewhere when Algebra is also at 3 votes shouldn't necessarily be suspicious.
@shadowezz - Honestly, I didn't press Titus because I didn't think to do so. Still new at this - not entirely sure how to scumhunt online. I relied a lot on body language cues in person (which is obviously impossible online).-
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I was on the Algebra wagon before one was started on me. The wagon on me started because I put Algebra at L-1.In post 175, Titus wrote:
Your wagon countering algebra.In post 173, nn30 wrote:In post 162, Titus wrote:
Nn30 does appear to be scared of rope, but this counter seems a little opportunistic.
@Titus what counter are you referring to?-
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I feel like I've missed the window of relevance to respond to some of the questions posed to me - it'd be weird to bring it up now. If anyone has something burning that I haven't answered, please let me know and I'd be happy to do so.
I want to see if I can't suss out Algebra's scum buddy (assuming that, however unlikely, that we're not both town) based on some associations. This analysis is based on the 'talk is cheap' mantra - I'm only looking at votes which have been cast. I'm also assuming that no bussing has occurred to this point.
Algebra has voted for Titus and myself (removing both of us as his likely partners). Shaddowez, Titus, Arona and Dunhallym have all voted for Algebra at one point. This leaves only Papa Zito, Morning Tweet, Empoof as the most likely partners. I have some thoughts as to the most likely but I'll keep those to myself for the moment.-
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@Titus - You're right, bussing could happen. Though I'm assuming that it wouldn't happen on day one. I imagine bussing is good for mid/late game when being on the wagon that turns up a scum gains you some cred among the town. Doing that right now and risking turning the game into 7 vs 1 seems suboptimal.-
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I wrote about half a paragraph which was defending Shaddowez. Then I realized I didn't agree with my own logic.
[quote="In post 284
Yep, look at me flailing. Mind showing me where I'm backtracking? Or, define how backtracking can be proven against reads progressing based on new information presented.
...
I'm still hesitant based on this not being the town!Titus I'm used to, but not enough to have a vote there.
UNVOTE: [/quote]
So he flails and backtracks in response to being told he's flailing and backtracking. facepalm.jpg
I still think that Algebra is a better lynch today, however. He's basically dropped off the face of the earth (not that he's ever posted much to begin with). If he's town the most generous thing I can say about him is that he's being unhelpful. If he's scum we've got ourselves a day one scum lynch. Win win?-
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Irrelevant aside - as I was falling asleep last night, I came up with a mathy argument to why day one no lynch is bad.
Assumptions for this exercise - the worst case scenario occurs every day (town mis lynches all the way up to lynch correctly or lose stage).
X means lynch, O means night kill
Day one lynch scenario:
9 players start. X O X OX.
In this case the bold X represents town getting the last lynch.
Day one no lynch scenario:
9 players start. O X O XO.
In this case, scum get the last kill to put the game at parity (ending the game).
In a 9 person game a day one no lynch speeds the game up (in scum favor).
Using this argument a 10 person 2 scum game should actually no lynch day one.
OXO X OX.
It gives them the power of the last kill (as opposed to forfeiting it to scum with a day one kill). Also, assuming lynches are chosen randomly, the day two lynch carriers a higher chance of landing on scum than a day one lynch. A marginal advantage but still relevant.
Can anyone disagree with this logic?-
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I know we're not a 10 person game. I was presenting a scenario in which a day one no lynch holds some merit. Hence - irrelevant aside.
If we were to play a 10 person game, I wouldn't even bring up a no lynch until maybe the last 2 days. That way we played as if we were going to lynch and gained information already. In a 10 person game - assuming lynches never land on scum - a no lynch day one scenario comes with the same number of town lynches as a day one lynch scenario.-
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In post 308, Papa Zito wrote:
Common wisdom around here is to always lynch Day 1 regardless of even/odd number of players. Reason being is Day 1 generates a ton of info with wagons and conversation which you'll lose if you decide to no lynch that day.In post 307, nn30 wrote:I know we're not a 10 person game. I was presenting a scenario in which a day one no lynch holds some merit. Hence - irrelevant aside.
If we were to play a 10 person game, I wouldn't even bring up a no lynch until maybe the last 2 days. That way we played as if we were going to lynch and gained information already. In a 10 person game - assuming lynches never land on scum - a no lynch day one scenario comes with the same number of town lynches as a day one lynch scenario.
I mean, I get that. What if a no lynch day one was only pushed after the wagon had moved around the town and information was gained?-
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@Papa Zito
Because in a 10 person game town gets the same number of lynches to try and catch scum - regardless of whether or not the first lynch was on day one or day two.In post 310, Papa Zito wrote: Corollary: If the town is willing to drive someone to L-1 then clearly they're seen as a scummy player, why wouldn't you just lynch them then and there?
Are you familiar with the Monty Hall problem? If not - here you go.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
TL;DR: There are three doors. One contains a car, the other two contain goats. A game show contestant chooses a door. After this initial choice, the host opens one of the unchosen doors and reveals a goat. The host then asks - would you like to change doors? Math says you should. The math also holds true for larger numbers of doors.
We could extend this problem to Mafia scum. The car = scum and goats = town. The host is the night kill (revealing/killing a goat in the night).
@Titus - the choice of when to bring up a no lynch could be seen as AI. This is indeed a problem that I cannot resolve - I concede this point to you.-
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@Empoof - We can table the strategy talk - no offense taken here.
I think that the case against shadow is based on two things 1) contradicting himself (Titus meta) and being caught doing so and 2) he flailed in response to being told he was flailing.
I can see the reason behind the votes which are currently on him but I don't feel strongly enough about it to be the hammer.
@Dunhallym - I think it's unlikely that Algebra and Shaddowez are partners. I laid out why I thought that in 269.-
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So, Shaddowez replies have done nothing to convince me of his innocence - in fact they've done the opposite. They're inconsistent and still flailing.
Re: Flailing - it's in your tone. You've been salty for a while and since I said I had intent to hammer it's only intensified. You disregard the explanations we've already given for how you seem to be backtracking and flailing and instead turn it back on us "how exactly am I flailing/backtracking again?"
Re: inconsistent* - In 284 you ask us how exactly you're flailing/being inconsistent - you give us the counter explanation that you're reacting to new information. Then you go on to unvote Titus. It felt like you unvoted Titus due to pressure in yourself, not new information.
Re: inconsistency 2.0 - You originally wagoned me way back when by pointing out an inconsistency in wgat I said (which I've since explained). In 344 you go on to say that 1) you found me less scummy because I'm unlikely to be Algebra's partner and 2) you try not to make preflip associatives. Point 1 and 2 contradict one another all on their own. The logic in point 1 also contradicts why you found me scummy in the first place (my scummyness had nothing to do with a partnership with Algebra according to anything you said).
Inconsistency 3.0 - You said in 355 thats it's the job of town to back up their reads. IMO it feels like you want to wagon titus just because she's wagoning you. First you vote her, then unvote her and now you want to revote her again. You joined the Algebra wagon in what was most likely a self preservation tactic - you offered nothing of substance on wanting to lynch him. You started a wagon on me and then abandoned it in an inconsistent manner (as I've pointed out above).
You asked earlier why I originally tried to defend you and changed my mind. Please refer to the * above. I originally thought you could be changing your mind on Titus due to changing information. On rereading recent posts I concluded no new information had come to light and that it didn't make sense.
As it stands right now, I'm more inclined to lynch shadow than Algebra. His posts have convinced me.
@Empoof - if you had to choose right now who would you lynch?
I'm available for the next ~2 hours. I'll bold a VLA after that.-
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Just finished my re-read of the thread (and an Arona ISO).
To the IC's - when you've played as scum, what have your goals been with NK's?
Arona voted for shadow, titus, algebra, me, and empoof at one point or another.
Her issues with Titus were from Titus' scumreading of me on page one. She also indicates in 230 that she thinks Titus is town.
Her issues with me were from early-mid game. She indicates in 257 that she thinks of me as less scummy due to a reinterpretation of something that happened.
When Empoof entered the game she scumread him for a while but eventually settled on a town read after an exchange between the two of them.
Shadow is dead.
All that leaves is Algebra. However, I don't actually think a scum Algebra has much to gain from killing Arona - he's already on the block with so many of us that one NK isn't going to change the general feeling towards him.
Option 1) Arona was killed because she was being read as townie. Empoof was the only person who comes to mind to even vote her seriously. She never gained any significant heat beyond that.
Option 2) Arona was onto something. Other than Algebra, she didn't seem to be zero'd in on anyone. If I had to choose between myself, Titus, and Empoof, Arona's weakest town read was on me. So that's something I guess.
Option 3) Arona was killed because scum had a PR tell on her (unlikely).-
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- Joined: August 15, 2016
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