Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]

[Tejate Raichu]

wanna kill me and lose the doctor on fua tonight be my guest ~

No, I don’t want to eliminate you today.

But you have the wolfiest pop ins I’ve seen in a long time and I’ve lost patience with your play.

Yeah, I really liked Ydrasse's opening but like... damn. I might need to rethink this one too.

[Tejate Raichu]

I literally do not think anyone was suggesting that but yourself.

[Tejate Raichu]

Don't blame yourself, I think the frustration is understandable. If it's any consolation I think you've been fun to play with.

[Tejate Raichu]

Speaking of which, I think you're in a unique position here seeing as you'd pretty confirmed. What's your take on this whole series of recent events? Particularly regarding the discussion Shirou, myself, and GuiltyLion have been involved in.

[Tejate Raichu]

yeah, GL is scum

I'm a night 3 cop and I'm leashing my cop on GL

we're no eliminating tomorrow

if I die tonight you eliminate GL or you're game throwing

that's kinda it.

In my opinion we should also stop following this and just eliminate ydrasse but /shrug

If my result on GL is a inno I can self-vote if he wishes me to. I'm pretty sure it's not going to be an inno though.

By the way that's why I was hinting that I "trusted a cop to check on GL". Because duh, I was the cop and I was gonna check him.

I kinda think it's a waste to check him right now tbh though because we could just eliminate him and me check someone else but eh, I don't have enough energy to try to convince people of that.

Also I think redtea is town due to the fact he's pushing it yeah

BAHAHAHAHAHAHA

What in the name of... Shirou, this is a joke right? You just did like 5 different things I find scummy in one post.

No, I am not no-elimming tomorrow, not for that. You do not control my or anyone else's vote, and it's not throwing to go against you. And now that you've found an excuse, you hopped off the redtea wagon immediately and want to quickswitch to Ydrasse (who hasn't even got their replacement yet), after this whole song and dance of "look at me, I'm willing to vote redtea so back off on the associative". And then you threaten to SELF VOTE if it's inno? Why? You are, or at least, were, under basically no risk of an actual wagon forming. Furthermore, self voting is not only damaging to town most of the time barring extraneous circumstances, but it is also from my knowledge not even a real reason to towntell someone. You wanna talk about performative statements, this whole post is blatantly performative.

[Tejate Raichu]

Shirou, every new post you make makes me wish I could vote for redtea twice.

Also welcome Enchant.

[Tejate Raichu]

How are you a consensus suspect? It's still mainly myself and GL that are expressing suspicion. From my view, you still are extremely unlikely to get elimmed without a cop claiming result on you.

redtea is, maybe even implo, but how are you one?

[Tejate Raichu]

morph, what do you make of this?

[Tejate Raichu]

Oh ydrasse claimed.
Well fine...

And i need to protect fua because...?
Protects are kinda suck if mafia knows about them.

fua claimed cop, was protected N1, and doesn't have their results yet.

[Tejate Raichu]

I have stated this before and I'll do it again: why on earth would you hard bus in a setup with at minimum 4 one shot cops?

[Tejate Raichu]

Well, I have a few hours left I can be here. My vote isn't moving, but I'll still be around to discuss for a couple hours.

[Tejate Raichu]

it's also become a harder stance by virtue of a bunch of people (Shirou, implo) just insisting on not voting redtea.

shirou was on the wagon until like an hour ago and i've said it's in practice not really a bad elim even if i think it'll flip town?

Shirou has also chosen to not revote.

[Tejate Raichu]

I still genuinely cannot believe you had the idea that you would be pushed to E-1 tomorrow. This series of posts skyrocketed your chances of that happening, not lowered them.

I think you may have fulfilled your own prophecy in trying to avoid it.

[Tejate Raichu]

I'm not agreeing to any pre-emptive day 3 vote before day 3. Let's see our flip and N2 cop checks, then come to a decision on day 3.

[Tejate Raichu]

I'm not really interested in bargaining over this wagon. Vote or do not, I am not going to agree on where my vote is placed before I've absorbed the information that end of day 2, night 2, and start of day 3 offer.

[Tejate Raichu]

I still think if anything pushed your slot into day 3 elim status, it's your posts in the last couple of hours about not wanting to get elimmed day 3.

[Tejate Raichu]

Man, getting this wagon through has been like pulling teeth.

[Tejate Raichu]

Man, getting this wagon through has been like pulling teeth.

That was directed at the killing morph comment, not the unvote. Unvote was understandable.

[Tejate Raichu]

Man, getting this wagon through has been like pulling teeth.

I don't understand how this is in reference to the morph comment.

Please expound.

From my view, the people I think are scum have been trying to find any reason possible to not be on this wagon. I sort of knee jerked into thinking "we better not be starting a morph wagon right now" because I really do not want to give them another excuse.

[Tejate Raichu]

is it like pulling teeth though, because this wagon went from 0 to 60 in no time flat.

im not saying thats a problem, wagon speed arguments are trash, but

My problem isn't with the speed at which this wagon formed. My problem with the fact that it was an obvious wagon day 1 but got pivoted off of, was barely even talked about early today, and now that we're back here I see a lot of Shirou seemingly trying to pivot away from this while also saying that he's fine with voting it. But then not actually voting it until he realizes that he does not have the same wagon leading power that he did yesterday.

[Tejate Raichu]

As for Enchant's slot, I'll take your guys' word for it on the metaread.

[Tejate Raichu]

if redtea is town, meg/tejate are both scum

Elaborate?

[Tejate Raichu]

I have only around an hour left before I'm actually properly V/LA, so if any of you have questions now is the time to ask.

[Tejate Raichu]

and im already scumreading you/yours is the wagon we derailed to do this.

Fair, I suppose. I didn't expect to suddenly get townread by anyone, frankly I'm surprised my wagon fell apart anyways. I understand that if redtea flips town it looks really bad for me, but quite frankly I've been playing out the latter half of this day by forcing myself into the mindset of already being in dead thread, so I'm surprised there was a switch at all.

[Tejate Raichu]

That being said, I'm not exactly sure how Meg ties into me being scum. I've actually barely interacted with the slot outside of saying that I didn't find his entry to be that scummy off of meta I've seen in 2085. He replaced into a slot that I was close to straight up just locktowning, but the entry struck me as so scummy that I pushed him to E-1 (or rather fake E-1, not trusting player written VC ever again).

[Tejate Raichu]

Alright well, I'm gone. Have a good weekend folks.

[Tejate Raichu]

Hello, back home briefly before going out again so I figured I'd check up on the thread.

He's not a true newbie. But iirc most of his experience is in discord and f2f games. Might be mixing him up with another player from the 2085 newbie game. I'll check on that when I'm at my laptop tomorrow.

Nope, that was me. That pretty much summarizes it.

@Meg, sure, I can see where our delay might look scummy, but what do we get out of it? In the end there were no doc claims, and frankly anyone who's played with me ever knows that I don't comment on nights that turn out favorably for town without a very, very good reason. I'm not sure I ever have in 50+ games. Commenting was pretty much a blazing signal to morph that we were taking responsibility for the lack of kill in a way that I couldn't have backed out of.

As soon as you asked about our reads on fua I could see the doc claim coming from a mile away. So if nothing else I think that strengthens your claim a bit. If you had done that and hadn't claim I'd be very suspicious of you.

I don't support a no-elim tomorrow without much better arguments for it. As someone (Tejate?) said, town's power is in eliminating, puny docs and cops aside.

I explicitly said I don't like Shirou's plan of locking no-elim tomorrow and kind of refuse to agree to it. Maybe there is a situation tomorrow where no-elim is good... and maybe it will do nothing but hurt town. I absolutely do not like the idea of deciding that before we can accurately judge what no-elim actually accomplishes tomorrow. The situation I would be most okay with is if redtea flips scum. Then, maybe, I could agree to it.

GL's posts I really have nothing to comment on because I have already expressed similar thoughts in other posts. I see nothing particularly out of place.

Also, regarding Meg's pet theory: I have thought about this some too, although I think you may be on the wrong track suspecting fua for it unless you believe Amazonian is also scum. Realistically the no NK scenario that makes most sense is Amazonian being scum, not her target. scum!fua and town!Amazonian would require the scum to essentially hope that there is a N1, so if this scenario was correct it actually makes most sense that we have 6 docs and 4 cops, not the other way around. That being said, this is still kind of conspiracy theory territory, no idea if any of this will have any value going forward.

[Tejate Raichu]

unless you believe Amazonian is also scum

I would literally self-vote in xylim under the assumption that Spay gave me a fake town role PM than vote Amazonians at any point in this game levels of they're town.

Which is why i'm lock-towning the shit out of Fua too.

I townread them! Just pointing out that suspecting fua over possible no NK shenanigans seems like the wrong way to entertain the possibilities of N1. Realistically, there are 4 things that could have happened night one.

1) doc!Amazonian protected cop!fua. Exactly what was stated was what happened. I really see no reason to doubt this at the moment.
2) scum!Amazonian fake protects scum!fua. But why? Neither of them are like, anywhere close to being in the danger zone? Amazonian was fairly TR'd and fua was close to locktown for almost everyone but me. This really makes no sense from a motivation perspective, even as WIFOM this would be baffling?
3) doc!Amazonian protected scum!fua, mafia make no kills this night. As stated, this seems unlikely. It would essentially require mafia to make a lucky guess that A) there was a night 1 doc at all and B) that the n1 doc would protect scum. This makes no sense unless 4 cop 6 doc, again even as WIFOM.
4) scum!Amazonian "protected" cop!fua, mafia make no kills. Of the 3 possibilities besides the obvious, this seems the most likely. Amazonian is in complete control of their own claim, so this wouldn't be relying on luck to pull off in theory. And fua is just an obvious protect. This would also have the benefit of strengthening all TR's on Amazonian, which is something scum may actually consider worth not killing for after pulling off a mis-elim d1.

That being said, while I have thought about this some, I still feel like it makes the most sense that a doc protected a cop.

[Tejate Raichu]

I'll take your word for it.

[Tejate Raichu]

Ah, real quick something just occurred to me in regards to 2601. Again, this is still wild conspiracy theory stuff so take this with a grain of salt.

5) doc!Amazonian protects cop!fua... but scum didn't night kill anyone. Let's think about option 3 for a second, why does the scum (possibly) attempting such a play have to be fua? I even noted in this possibility that there is no real guarantee of success which made it seem unlikely, but what if it failed? What if the scum tried to draw in the doctor for this play but ended up needlessly confirming fua?

Okay enough of that. By the way, I really like 2604. Overall I've actually liked a number of nQ's posts better than day 1, regardless of the claim.

[Tejate Raichu]

Ah, real quick something just occurred to me in regards to 2601. Again, this is still wild conspiracy theory stuff so take this with a grain of salt.

5) doc!Amazonian protects cop!fua... but scum didn't night kill anyone. Let's think about option 3 for a second, why does the scum (possibly) attempting such a play have to be fua? I even noted in this possibility that there is no real guarantee of success which made it seem unlikely, but what if it failed? What if the scum tried to draw in the doctor for this play but ended up needlessly confirming fua?

Okay enough of that. By the way, I really like 2604. Overall I've actually liked a number of nQ's posts better than day 1, regardless of the claim.

I’m the queen of paranoid theories, but your two theories where scum decided not to kill the cop just aren’t very likely, at least in the case of most scum teams. I can’t imagine a scum team deciding to just not kill a claimed cop in a game with at least four cops without having a counter to the cop. There are just too many variables you can’t control; the risk is way too high for no guarantee of a tiny reward. Unless you can neuter the cop, thou shall not suffer a cop to live.

Having a minimum of four cops is why I also don’t think there was a no kill. Is it possible, yes, but I don’t think it’s likely at this moment.

I'm still of the camp that you are probably just town doc who healed a town cop. The chances of this very weird edge case scenario are pretty low, but I figured I might as well mention it while I'm entertaining Meg's conspiracy theory.

[Tejate Raichu]

I was kinda hoping redtea would offer a little more than "hmm yes the game state is interesting" with no elaboration. Oh well. I have no problem with a hammer right about now.

[Tejate Raichu]

I was kinda hoping redtea would offer a little more than "hmm yes the game state is interesting" with no elaboration. Oh well. I have no problem with a hammer right about now.

What leads you to think this is an attainable hope?

I'm NOT suggesting a hammer. Not until Tammyhydra is ready to end it.

Nothing, it just hurts my soul a little when people just give up in mafia. Unless you're literally mechconfirmed evil and there's nothing you can say to your benefit, I think people should at least try in situations like this. I have not seen any such effort from redtea, so it just disappoints me a bit.

[Tejate Raichu]

Good morning. This topic of contention is dreadfully boring, so I'll say this. If fua is lying and doesn't retract their guilty result before the end of Day 3, I'll move to policy lim them. We good on that whole WIFOM debate now? Cause fua is almost certainly town and an investigation on morph makes sense.

Onto topics I actually find interesting to discuss at length, I may need to do some re-working of my reads. If morph flips red, at least one of implo and Shirou actually came up with that not very good reason to townread redtea on their own, as opposed to something thrown around in scum PT. If I had to pick scum out of those two, it would almost certainly be Shirou. implo's read on redtea, while pretty faulty on the logic front, is consistent with the rest of his posts. Shirou's recent posts shortly below the redtea elim do not sound as if they come from town, at all.

[Tejate Raichu]

My question morph, do you think fua has a reason to fakeclaim a result on you if it's scum!fua and town!morph? I wouldn't really say scum win exactly hinges on your slot to the point where they'd sacrifice a teammate when they're already in a losing position.

[Tejate Raichu]

Honestly I'm kind of down for fast day if fua doesn't retract. fua, you understand that I will hard tunnel you tomorrow if you're lying about your results yes?

[Tejate Raichu]

Good morning. This topic of contention is dreadfully boring, so I'll say this. If fua is lying and doesn't retract their guilty result before the end of Day 3, I'll move to policy lim them. We good on that whole WIFOM debate now? Cause fua is almost certainly town and an investigation on morph makes sense.

Onto topics I actually find interesting to discuss at length, I may need to do some re-working of my reads. If morph flips red, at least one of implo and Shirou actually came up with that not very good reason to townread redtea on their own, as opposed to something thrown around in scum PT. If I had to pick scum out of those two, it would almost certainly be Shirou. implo's read on redtea, while pretty faulty on the logic front, is consistent with the rest of his posts. Shirou's recent posts shortly below the redtea elim do not sound as if they come from town, at all.

Are you talking about Shirou's case on GL and their plan to no lim today? Out of Shirou's entire ISO that's really the only section that's given me reason to hard scumread them, whereas I've felt implo has given me several reasons to scumread.

I don't think that's really the only reason. The main reason those posts even came about in the first place is because I drew an associative between them and redtea. I said that their read on redtea was just barely committed enough that they could push wagons on other people, while also easily throwing redtea to the wolves if need be, but showed no intention of actually doing such. Once it was clear that redtea was the new wagon, I saw nothing but resistance. The weird posts are just the cherry on top.

[Tejate Raichu]

It heavily strikes me as the reaction of a scum who realizes how close their team composition is to being solved. No elimming there would have been anti-town for sure, in most circumstances it's pretty much always better to lim a scum sooner than later. Even if they are likely to be limmed later. And yet, despite this fact that should have been apparent, considering Shirou and I believe implosion as well even called me out earlier in the game for focusing too much on info from flips... Shirou was the one actively campaigning that we skip out on a vote on someone who is, at best, null and never going to improve beyond that. I have already described why I thought they were worse than null.

Even with the mis-elim from yesterday, the no kill on night 1 combined with a day 2 elim on scum puts the mafia team in a pretty horrible position. Even delaying redtea's death one day would improve things a tiny bit for scum.

Point is, it reeks of panic. The N3 cop claim is very convenient for scum in that position. And the over-eagerness to state that they're "going to be wagoned soon" when it's clear from the gamestate that there is zero chance that happens UNLESS town followed my suggestion to cop them, tastes like scum who wants to dodge being caught out as much as they can.

[Tejate Raichu]

So you're not a N2 cop, then?

[Tejate Raichu]

For now I'm just patiently waiting to see if we have any actual N2 cops. There are a few people who have yet to post. Ceph, Meg, and implo have not yet posted out of the people who are alive and haven't already claimed a role.

[Tejate Raichu]

If we have an actual, not fake guilty, I would be happy to fast vote and end the day early.

[Tejate Raichu]

AL is sort of a strange kill; of all the AL-fua-ceph conf-ish-town morass, they're the one slot with a definitely useless role. I feel like that's a very strange kill for scum who is seemingly in a quite bad position to make and wonder if it means something significant.

I don't think it is. AL would have been near impossible to mis-elim and they know that no one is likely to protect them. On night 1 they went for a risk, on night 2 they went for a guarantee. Makes sense to me.

As for why they didn't kill a town!Shirou, well that's quite simple isn't it? Shirou no longer has the same wagon pushing power he had day 1. He's no longer largely immune to suspicion. Of course, that's assuming he's town... plus, we've had several doctor claims by now and a dead doc at the time of night 2, so the chances of there being a N3 doc are statistically not very high, especially if we're in 6-4. As we saw night 1, scum is presumably willing to take that risk.

[Tejate Raichu]

I want to look more at meg/tejate associatives with redtea; the possible Shirou associatives are obvious ofc. tejate saying that he's like, looking for reasons why it wouldn't be me/shirou is also quite interesting.

I said that mainly because I was giving fua's claim the benefit of the doubt (2 scum found = at least one of you is guaranteed town), I don't think that applies quite as well now. I still think you two are sus as hell, Shirou moreso.

But, I'm still willing to look at other options.

[Tejate Raichu]

I actually think Ceph was more likely to get healed than Amazonians. They have yet to claim (possible cop, mafia wants this dead and as such other night 2 docs are more likely attracted to it). In my opinion the night kill would have had to be one of those two since they're both all but innocent children at that point.

[Tejate Raichu]

I also agree... those are the same reasons Ceph would be a better shot, particularly from scum who are losing and would need to take risks.

I'll just drop it, this point is probably just me projecting the way I think about things in a kind of not useful way.

I didn't say I necessarily disagreed, just that I can see where the nightkill might have come from. I'd rather not offer my opinions on who I personally would night kill in these situations until after the game, I'd rather not give mafia hints.

That being said, I don't think it really could have been anyone but Amazonian or Ceph. fua might have been on the table in hopes that Enchant would WIFOM their night action (which they apparently were tempted to do and I can't blame them).

[Tejate Raichu]

My point wasn't that they wanted to kill a doc over a cop, my point was that they want to reduce process of elimination without the risk of a doc showing up and ruining this for scum even further.

[Tejate Raichu]

The more confirmed townies that stay alive, the harder it is for mafia to have space to actually do anything. It was the safest kill they could have made that reduces poe.

[Tejate Raichu]

If we're going to mass claim, may I start us off now?

[Tejate Raichu]

I am a

Night 3 Doctor

.

[Tejate Raichu]

I kind of assumed you were, so that was the plan anyways.

[Tejate Raichu]

I mean, I figured that there's no way a night 4 or 5 cop would be eager to claim earlier than everyone else. I felt you were n1 - n3, and I learned today that you are not night 2.

[Tejate Raichu]

I'd like to hear Ceph's claim since he's pretty confirmed.

[Tejate Raichu]

...Interesting.

Have you played in a game with popcorn claiming before, Tejate?

Nope.

[Tejate Raichu]

If you are town, then whatever the hell this gambit is... you overcorrected greatly. I don't know if GL would have done it, but I knew well that there was 0 chance of pushing you without a guilty cop result. That is the main reason I wanted the non-existent N2 cop to check you. If you had held back and not made those posts, we would still probably be the only people in the game with decently solid SRs on you. I may not be as widely scumread anymore, but it should be fairly obvious to you that I'm not in the same standing as someone like Amazonian was. Do you honestly think I could have pushed a wagon you D3 without those posts? I was willing to hang back and advocate for a cop check. And maybe GL would have, but I highly doubt it would have gone far.

I can understand not wanting to be the night kill, but it should have been obvious that it was never going to be you. Not for night 2. Scum at the moment redtea became the main wagon had to reduce PoE as soon as possible. If anything, you were already SR'd just enough to not be the night kill even if we didn't have 3 pretty confirmed townies.

Also, I agree with GL's sentiment. Just about all of this reads like something scum would be saying to get out of a misplay.

[Tejate Raichu]

You know what? If we don't all immediately dogpile on Shirou, I'd actually not be entirely opposed to a no-elim ---> Shirou tomorrow now that we have one scum out and are effectively ahead in terms of dead town vs dead scum. Worst case scenario, we flip one scum a day late when we still have plenty of time and we have ideas on who Shirou's scumbuddies could be.

Or, if Shirou flips town and has a guilty result on GL, we can quick-lim GL and either way we have 1 scum left. I highly, highly doubt that Shirou is scumbuddies with GL. There was literally no reason for GL to turn on someone who seems to have been set up to deepwolf, especially when the only other person throwing significant shade on their slot is someone who was almost a wagon.

[Tejate Raichu]

Are we seriously mass claiming today?

Pretty sure implo was just claiming for the sake of that plan.

[Tejate Raichu]

I mulled on it over night and I guess it does make sense to leave Shirou alive today. It gives me a lot of pause though because the biggest proponent of that plan is the person who's at the chopping block. So if Shirou is scum that means Shirou getting out this investigation factors into scum's plans somehow. But idk, maybe it's just desperation to last as long as possible.

Actually, even if Shirou isn't scum, there hasn't been much push to lim him today besides from me, and I don't think that would be a difficult mislim to pull off. Which means either way him surviving to tomorrow is part of scum's plan.

hmm. I'm gonna leave my vote here but I plan to look back and focus on who the other scum might be.

If it helps quell your doubts, I still think Shirou is megascum but I'm okay with letting him live one day since we are very much ahead. If we're wrong on scum!Shirou, then the investigation result has value. If not, we can ignore it. I see no-elim ---> Shirou elim as a win/win pretty much, and as such I actually no longer think it's a good idea to cop Shirou in these circumstances. He's either a night kill, or an elim.

stop posting self defenses and start scumhunting, no one is limming you today by virtue of your claim you have a free day, and you're still just pumping out wall after wall about why you don't play this way as scum, which is virtually useless. that's why I haven't been interested in what you have to say, defending yourself is literally the least valuable thing you could be doing for me right now

Probably the only thing left giving me pause on scum!Shirou is that this is kind of like looking in a mirror. This is almost exactly what half of my day 2 was.

That being said, I'll place my vote now. If you've paid attention to my posts today this shouldn't really be a big surprise.
VOTE: No Elimination

We're still a good ways away from LiLo, and on the off chance Shirou is town we potentially get valuble results or force scumteam to be one down on mis-elim.

[Tejate Raichu]

Tejate why No Elim over Morph elim? I get why we shouldn't lim Shirou, but that doesn't mean we have to vote no elim

Morph isn't really that strong of a scumcase for me, I feel like I have maybe a slightly better read on them but I'm still not all that confident. I'll vote them if you guys are that convinced that they'll flip red, but I think this vote is pretty sound mechanically speaking.

[Tejate Raichu]

Once again, I have no experience with Enchant but I'll take your guys' word for it that they're town.

[Tejate Raichu]

They might be referencing the part where I said I'd be down to just do a fast day if the guilty was legit.

[Tejate Raichu]

I don't think it's very worth thinking too much more about Shirou unless he comes out swinging with some big brain solves. I really just want to wagon him if he's alive tomorrow.

[Tejate Raichu]

<ultimasnip>
Shirou: Enchant/fua/GuiltyLion
fua: implosion/Meg/morph
implosion: numberQ/Shirou/Tejate
<gigasnip>

Regarding this, can I also add that I don't think a Shirou check is that valuable at this point, but if we're going to include him in the pool could we maybe let fua have it? I'm still entertaining redtea/Shirou/implo, so I'd rather not have my second biggest scumread check my biggest scumread thanks.

[Tejate Raichu]

What are the benefits of no limming again?

We have 3 claimed cops, one of which is pretty much locktown and guaranteed to get a result. That'd be you, fua. We aren't limming the scummiest looking player today (Shirou) because of this very claim. We lose effectively nothing by doing this since with 1 missed night kill and 1 scum dead, we are at a pretty major advantage where we would have to mis-lim two days in a row AND have 2 night kills go through to reach LiLo. By no limming, we guarantee no mis-lims on potential later day cops or unclaimed N3 docs. I think it is worth going for the safe play here since, again, at worst we get 1 scum a day late when they're already losing.

[Tejate Raichu]

Sure. I also think it's best to swap nQ/Meg. So how does this look:

Shirou: GL/numberQ
fua: implosion/Shirou/Tejate
implosion: morph/Meg

Your terms are acceptable.

[Tejate Raichu]

Actually yeah, I think it's best if we just assume Shirou is leashed to GL. Maybe give yourself nQ?

[Tejate Raichu]

I know it's about as exciting as checking in poker, but I'm still in favor of no-elim.

[Tejate Raichu]

I'm hard scumreading No Elimination. Let's vote them out quick before they do any more damage.

Jokes aside I really don't think we have that much more to discuss today so I'm cool with hammer whenever.

[Tejate Raichu]

That's E-1 btw, next vote will be hammering the dastardly scum player known as No Elimination.

[Tejate Raichu]

It’s the open acknowledgment of self-awareness coupled with his LAMIST attitude and admission of uselessness that made me suspicious of him to begin with. The part I quoted in particular stands out as pretty odd to me.

Sooo, we gonna vote soon?

[Tejate Raichu]

Did not mean to quote that post, woops.

[Tejate Raichu]

Sure. I also think it's best to swap nQ/Meg. So how does this look:

Shirou: GL/numberQ
fua: implosion/Shirou/Tejate
implosion: morph/Meg

If we're still here I guess, I'd like to mention again that my one issue with this list is Shirou. I feel like it's kind of obvious that Shirou is just going to target GL if he's a real cop, and we should probably treat it as such. I highly doubt Shirou has much interest in checking nQ's alignment.

[Tejate Raichu]

Mmm... actually, I think I'll just go out and say it.

I feel like Tejate and GL are the last two members of scum. I took a step back and looked at it, and Morph does have a good point about GL's reaction to my claim as well as Tejate pretty much doing the same 'I'd be happy to turbolim if this is a real claim'. Tejate saying that he'll be gunning to turbolim me tomorrow if my results are fake implies he knew they were fake and that he was posturing to eliminate me if Morph's elimination went through afterwards. Which is kind of a weird thing to say if he already thought that I was a night 2 or night 3 cop? He's essentially saying 'I know you're lying about your results, but even if you are town, I'll tunnel you anyway'. Which is not a townie mindset to approach things with, even if you do understand policy lims.

Actually, if you read the post before that one, I was assuming it was real. The reason I said I'd policy you in the first place is because the current discussion was about the guilty being fake, as brought up by morph. I suggested policy as a way to resolve a discussion I saw as going in circles because I honestly half-believed the claim.

Tejate has also been making a lot of weird assertions about what scum would and wouldn't do, explaining their motivations behind kills/trying to drive home a narrative beyond that too and it kind of shows. He's also the one that's been trying to get the most milage out of Shirou to build up an association between him (Shirou) and Redtea, and it's hard not to feel like GL is joining in the mix to support that.

I don't think I've actually said anything really out of the blue on that front, really. What exactly about the night kill have I said that seems unreasonable coming from town?

Tejate has just tried to cover for GL twice to ensure that it's less likely that he gets investigated-- which could come from a sentiment of the issues we've discussed beforehand, but it's also indicative of an association between the two, especially when GL was one of the main reasons the wagon on Tejate dissipated in the first place.

Wanting them investigated in case I'm wrong about Shirou is half of the reason I want no-elim to begin with. If Shirou flips town and has a guilty on GL, then we are still in a good position to mechsolve in lieu of any other guilties tomorrow.

I think the N3 Doctor claim is fake, and that while I won't die tonight, many of his posts have been posturing towards killing implosion tonight so he doesn't get his result and then proceeding to miselim Shirou tomorrow, which is basically the right move for scum in this position.

??? Okay, I get the Shirou part but how exactly am I posturing to get implosion night killed?

A big thing that sparked my suspicion in this was actually Shirou (At least, I think it was Shirou) bringing up the fact that GL's insistence on limming redtea implied TMI, and with GL trying to get towncred for that exact thing I feel as if he's right on the money. I'm not exactly the best at casing people but if we're just going to take every claim at face value and work our way down from there I think that Tejate and GL have the most partner equity between them out of any pair in the game.

I won't deny that we've had a lot of similar takes, but I feel like that's not necessarily AI on its own. I'm still pretty sure Shirou was being set up to deepwolf, so if anything I'm getting slightly more paranoid of the people who seem distanced from Shirou.

[Tejate Raichu]

Actually, if you read the post before that one, I was assuming it was real. The reason I said I'd policy you in the first place is because the current discussion was about the guilty being fake,

as brought up by morph

. I

suggested

policy as a way to resolve a discussion I saw as going in circles because I

honestly

half-believed

the claim.

:/


I hate this entire line of thought. Extra weasel-worlds. Minimizes your own agency...

But it's true! I wouldn't have even brought up the possibility had you not! I mentioned that specifically because I feel like fua skimmed over the context of me saying that. I even said in my day 3 opener that fua investigating morph made sense.

[Tejate Raichu]

Furthermore, fua you say that I'm posturing to get implo night killed. I still don't understand how that makes sense, but let's assume for the sake of argument that I said something that could be construed as doing that. Why on earth would I kill implosion in the case of scum!me and scum!GL? Shirou is hard locked on GL tonight. Does it not make far more sense to kill town!Shirou in this situation? Of the 2 claimed cops with no leashes, town!Shirou is the least likely to receive protection and if I was scumbuddies with GL that means it would be in my best interest to get Shirou out of there. It is not worth going to a 1f1 here, and you should know that. So again, why on earth would I set myself up to kill implo tonight? That's not wine, that's just straight up throwing the game if I'm scum.

[Tejate Raichu]

scum with GL^

[Tejate Raichu]

Furthermore, fua you say that I'm posturing to get implo night killed. I still don't understand how that makes sense, but let's assume for the sake of argument that I said something that could be construed as doing that. Why on earth would I kill implosion in the case of scum!me and scum!GL? Shirou is hard locked on GL tonight. Does it not make far more sense to kill town!Shirou in this situation? Of the 2 claimed cops with no leashes, town!Shirou is the least likely to receive protection and if I was scumbuddies with GL that means it would be in my best interest to get Shirou out of there. It is not worth going to a 1f1 here, and you should know that. So again, why on earth would I set myself up to kill implo tonight? That's not wine, that's just straight up throwing the game if I'm scum.

He’s a cop claim. You openly admitted you want Shirou dead tomorrow and claim that you’re doc leashed to me. That’s literally why you’re trying to move GL so that Shirou isn’t targeting him. Process of elimination. Why are you concerned about your biggest scumread checking GL? Do you think that GL will be killed over any of the three cop claims?

Move GL? I was suggesting we move nQ and Shirou respectively. I didn't want implo to be the one to check Shirou because I am still entertaining an associative read. Fua, are you sure you're actually digesting my posts? Because if anything I suggested the opposite of moving GL. I suggest that we just leave Shirou leashed to GL tonight if he's a real cop. And yes, I do want Shirou dead tomorrow in lieu of a guilty result.

[Tejate Raichu]

Regardless, if anyone is going to check Shirou I'd rather it be the confirmed townie.

[Tejate Raichu]

My vote stays where it started. I'm still in favor of no-elim.

[Tejate Raichu]

Also, what list would you suggest instead?

Shirou: GL
fua: implosion/Shirou/Meg
implosion: morph/Tejate/nQ

[Tejate Raichu]

Or switch around morph and Meg. This helps solve the issue of implo having low value targets does it not?

[Tejate Raichu]

Didn't you just have an issue with me trying to move GL out of Shirou's investigation?

[Tejate Raichu]

I kinda don't like that fua sprung that list last minute.

[Tejate Raichu]

Doesn't really help that I like that proposed list about as much as Enchant liked mine.

[Tejate Raichu]

also, I think no elimination is a grave mistake. And if you talk about how I had suggested no elimination yesterday, re:read my ISO because I already explained that before.

Please explain why it's mistake, because i see it as not bad move (exactly not bad, of course killing maf is better). Like, we will need to skip anyway, unless other doc will save someone (which is fairly unlikely).

Because it doesn’t narrow down the PoE at all and just lets mafia get a kill. We can skip later after we narrow down the PoE and cops get their results. I just don’t think there are any positives to letting mafia kill whoever they want.

fua... we have 3 claimed N3 cops. How on earth is that not narrowing down PoE to wait until we get their results?

[Tejate Raichu]

It's not even guaranteed to let mafia get a kill either. Mafia essentially has to target one of you three tonight or risk losing the game. Any unclaimed N3 docs have it very easy tonight. And if they do choose someone else? We get 3 guaranteed results anyways, at least one of which is 100% true.

[Tejate Raichu]

I explicitly said yesterday that I would be comfortable with no-lim today if redtea flipped scum. That happening is the only reason I haven't death tunneled Shirou yet, so if I'm going to vote for anyone today, it's CERTAINLY not going to be a wagon Shirou is pushing, it reeks of opportunism off of fua's solve proposal. If you think me + GL solves the game, then have some patience. You aren't the only one at the table with an opinion on the scumteam, and I am guaranteeing your survival tonight. You think we're scum? Then check us, and you have your solve. Or, when you see that I at least am unambigiously town, then can we proceed to yeet Shirou into the grand canyon?

But please, just end the day on no-elim, or at LEAST don't follow a wagon pushed by a consensus scumread on someone who is almost definitely not his partner. I am rapidly running out of patience for this game day. Scum are at a point where every single mis-elim is a big deal. Depriving them of that today also hurts them, even if it's not getting a scum out immediately.

[Tejate Raichu]

Could you give us your take on the cop pool proposals so we're prepared to end the day properly at least?

[Tejate Raichu]

That I would find more agreeable than what Shirou is doing right now.

[Tejate Raichu]

I highly doubt GL is trying to find reasons to TR Shirou.

[Tejate Raichu]

Morph let's go if you're town, put your vote back on GL?

Trying to think of a sentence that would make me less interested in putting our vote back right now.

Coming up empty.

This might be the towniest thing you've done all day.

[Tejate Raichu]

nQ, are you suggesting fua is scum? It's odd to me that you're expressing scrutiny at people pushing for a lim, but don't make any explicit comment about who looks worst from it. I would have thought Shirou being your main suspect opportunistically hopping onto my wagon would have received more of a direct call out

I know this wasn't directed at me, but the way I'm reading this is that fua is wrongtown and scum!Shirou is desperately trying to take advantage because he knows that every mis-elim counts at this point. nQ put it pretty succinctly: scum needs to elim far more than town does right now.

[Tejate Raichu]

The only real point right now is that we need to make a decision on who the cops actually want to investigate. Other than that there's really nothing else I have any interest in dragging out the day for.

[Tejate Raichu]

Shirou: GL/Meg
fua: implosion/Shirou/Tejate
implosion: morph/numberQ/Enchant

This one I think.

But perhaps I should just make them so we're not listening to a question mark.

You should either make them or formally enshrine these as truth; I for one am very much idling my engine until the end of the day, at least.

I don't really buy that people pushing for a lim right now is a super duper scummy thing to do. I think it's slightly ambiguous which is better though I do prefer no-lim.

I don't think it's all that ambigious. I can understand the town desire to get scum out in the here and now, but there is just simply no good reason to do so. Scum would prefer to mis-elim this day than to no-elim. Even if we get 0 scum out today, depriving them of an elim they desperately need to have a chance at winning is +town.

[Tejate Raichu]

Is that E-1 again? VC please?

[Tejate Raichu]

Really? The biggest problem I've had with the suggested pools this whole time was that I was assuming you'd be hard leashed to GL. If your pool isn't going to include GL, I can join yours.

[Tejate Raichu]

so, this is the pools we're doing right?

Shirou: Morph/Implo
Fua: Shirou/GL/NQ
Implo: Meg/Tejate

except fua agreed to leash themselves to GL, so maybe Implo can have me in their pool and I do get NQ.

PS: Implo I really think you shouldn't investigate me as you'll probably be eliminated in disbelief but it's up to you I guess.

Therefore...

Shirou: Morph/Implo/NQ
Fua: GL
Implo: Meg/Tejate

?

we are not removing you from the pools just because you don't feel like being in them lmao

I didn't even notice that actually lmao. Half of me is in favor of not having Shirou checked cause I kind of just want them out of there, but I guess a clear result would be best.

[Tejate Raichu]

Speaking of which, Ceph, have you resolved on a list? I'd kind of like to end this game day soon.

[Tejate Raichu]

Acceptable. If fua agrees, can we just hammer and end this day?

[Tejate Raichu]

Alright, who wants to do the honors?

[Tejate Raichu]

Well, have a good third night everyone. Remember, if any other N3 docs exist, your job now is to stop the kill. I will protect fua, so go somewhere else.

[Tejate Raichu]

Hoo boy, this is getting chaotic. I tried to stay up for the timer, but I ended up falling asleep.

Tejate is town. I didn't want to risk the invest on a cop when it was 50/50 that one could be nightkilled.

This is a load off my mind. I got to a townread on day 2, but the differences between his play here and in Newbie 2085 are pretty stark.

I'm kind of not the most consistent mafia player in the world.

Anyway, I think theres a pretty good chance at this point that the game isn't as easy as it currently appears, but there are certainly still non cleared players I'm suspicious of, so possibly I don't need to start thinking about that yet!

Agreed, let's think about that come day 5.

Shirou's posts today have not really improved my opinion of the slot. I don't think the argument of "if I was scum there's no way I would play this badly" makes much sense. I have indeed seen townies play in a way that is so suboptimal there is just a very low chance it's coming from scum, and I have actually TR'd people for that in the past. But context is required: you were playing in a way that was most certainly NOT suboptimal for scum before the whole wallpost thing on day 2. In fact, if you were actually scum defending redtea, you went about it in a sneaky way that wouldn't be noticed for a while. That's not "suboptimal" and I'm not TRing you for it.

VOTE: Shirou

[Tejate Raichu]

So, I lit a fire under fua's ass for half the game, suspected redtea early, hard pushed redtea day 2 the moment it was even possible for me to do so in a situation where 1 scum man down early is a huge loss even if it's a dead slot? When I could have instead tried to push harder on implo, GL, Meg, which from your perspective are guaranteed town in this scenario?

And, on top of that, you also think that fua no-killed in the hopes that there was a night 1 doc? You think all of those things are true at the same time?

[Tejate Raichu]

And furthermore, what earthly reason do I have to not stay on the lim Shirou train? There was no inno. He still looks like scum, the actions of previous days are not erased. His posts today have not convinced me that he's not, either.

[Tejate Raichu]

And furthermore, what earthly reason do I have to not stay on the lim Shirou train? There was no inno. He still looks like scum, the actions of previous days are not erased. His posts today have not convinced me that he's not, either.

heh

kkkkk

Tejate can you like, please read my posts?

If my slot is scum I'm basically already on auto as long as we do what I said. I've already lost this game if scum from any possible angle, no matter if my potential partner would be NQ or not.

As long as we do the plan I said, the cops should auto resolve themselves. Whoever is scum in Shirou/NQ/Fua will be shown, no matter if there's only one or two.

I've a game where when I was confirmed to have mechanically lost, I simply gave up and admitted to being scum. I hate wasting time, and I'm not giving up here. If I'm scum and your pools are currently right this game is already over no matter what, if you're town, can't you try to show me a bit of good-faith and read my mech talk to understand why it's good to do a course of actions that also guarantees you get scum even if you're wrong on me/NQ?

I did, and I'm fine with that elimination chain. The only real problem with it is GL/morph, but cops can take care of that I guess.

Actually, I'm not necessarily in favor of massclaim today. I'd rather any remaining town!cops remain unclaimed.

[Tejate Raichu]

Meh. like I said, my read on you is purely by association at this point. If all those things you say you did are true, sure, there's a town spin to it. But I also don't really see any hard evidence that those interactions can't be S/S. fua is still alive and has been more or less hard cleared by most of the player list ever since their claim, so lighting a fire under their ass didn't really amount to anything, and was relatively low risk. Scum can, and by some schools of thought should, suspect their partners early on. And by day 2 any scum team could have easily seen redtea as a lost cause.

First point, fair enough, disagreement is not necessarily AI. And yes, if I was scum I would agree that redtea is a lost cause slot. But I wouldn't really be rushing to bus them either. As I stated in an earlier post, ignoring specific contexts it is almost always better to get a scum out earlier than later. redtea even just surviving up to day 3, even if everyone knows they're scum, is worse for town than eliminating them day 1 or 2. Had that happened, town would be in a far worse position than we actually were in D3. Thus, it would be insane to bus in a setup with this many cops, at a point where I am already under heavy suspicion and am likely to get checked. There is only one way your argument makes sense beyond the associative: I was doing a soft bus and wasn't actually intending to get redtea elim'd, but instead throwing shade on them when my own slot seemed like a cost cause to anti-scum spew. I think you will find this is not the case.

And yes, I do think fua no killed N1, but I don't think the entire gambit HAD to have a N1 doc. One of his buddies could have taken that up if AL hadn't claimed, and suddenly you have 2 conf!towns.

Actually, interesting point. It would have been risky, but no NK is inherently risky. I didn't consider that.

[Tejate Raichu]

Fua is town and anyone thinking otherwise should pour gasoline over themselves and light a match.

I don't have to be happy with their play to town read them. There's no way day two goes down the way it did with a fua nokill n1 gambit.

Sadly, there are no arsonists in this setup.

[Tejate Raichu]

I was a bit surprised too, but I guess there was that "solve" yesterday. But now everyone knows that solve is impossible, the only way I am scum is if fua is my partner. This is actually part of why I dislike nQ's associative. Yes, it is true that scum!me can only be partners with fua at this point. But that doesn't necessarily mean scum!fua necessitates scum!me either. It's not a two way street, but nQ seems to be treating it as such since they mentioned that their read on me is purely by association.

I guess being wrong isn't necessarily AI on its own, but I felt like this was fairly obvious and I'm pretty sure someone else stated it in the thread earlier.

[Tejate Raichu]

That being said, just some random spitballed thoughts.

1) I think elimming fua today would be a mistake. I'm not opposed to getting them if a guilty pops up or something, but I don't think it's really the play here.
2) I haven't fully absorbed the mech wall yet, but I'll take a look and decide what I want to today. This doesn't necessarily need to be a fast day, we have some time.
3) I hated nQ's day 1, started warming up to their day 2 play, and now I'm starting to fall back to day 1 vibes. I do agree at the very least that eliminating them at some point before LiLo would be to our advantage.

[Tejate Raichu]

I do kind of agree that we're at a point where checking Shirou is pretty useless. If there was any time to check him, it was night 2 or night 3, but right now it would be a waste. Shirou is now a slot that will probably not live to endgame by necessity.

Regarding GL's posts today, I find them interesting since I have been thinking about a night kill gambit for a long time. Essentially since the start of day 2. I was ready to write off fua's check as wrongtowning because of their sudden last minute "solve", but it isn't impossible that they manufactured a reason to check me over Shirou. Granted, I myself wasn't sure how valuable a Shirou check would be.

I still think eliminating fua today would be wrong and just poor play, but I'm not prepared to bet the farm on them being town personally.

I know it's a lot of just echoing various sentiments, but I feel like it might be interesting enough just by virtue of coming from the person fua is clearing.

[Tejate Raichu]

Oh, and

UNVOTE:

I'll consider our options outside of Shirou a bit.

[Tejate Raichu]

Elaborate, because I think an nQ check would be a lot more valuable.

[Tejate Raichu]

I'm getting the feeling that this setup might lean towards being town favored with just goons... is there somewhere you can see winrates on common setups?

[Tejate Raichu]

Hmmm... I suppose that's true, actually.

[Tejate Raichu]

In this setup, since it is randomized, mafia always have a claim space of 2 cop slots, 2 doctor slots, or 1 cop and 1 doc. So they have a space for 2 slots overall. And then one becomes the odd one out with either cops or docs having a confirmed scum in it. Now that I'm really thinking about it, maybe it's not as valuable as I once thought to adhere to 7:6 (or in our case, 6:6).

[Tejate Raichu]

Interesting that mafia has a higher winrate, though granted it is just 16 games. I wonder what the trajectory of those abandoned games was, but I suppose we can save that for post-game discussion.

[Tejate Raichu]

You know what, I'm just going to say it. I don't care about giving scum hints anymore, they've probably already realized this.

But yeah, I don't think 7:5 is actually necessarily awful as we might think. As Shirou pointed out, the danger is not in confirming one slot has scum in their ranks, but by confirming the other column is mostly if not all town. As such, it actually wouldn't be the worst idea ever, in this specific scenario, for mafia to intentionally unbalance the claims towards the side that has less confirmed townies (probably doctors). This way mafia aren't fighting to be the only unconfirmed person in their column. I don't know which they might lean to yet, and maybe it won't happen, but I feel like it's not something we should rule out now.

[Tejate Raichu]

I'm still a little suspicious of Shirou in principle but... he's kind of correct on this mech plan. This plan allows for no real chance of scum!Shirou winning. There's no real incentive to say any of this as scum, there's digging your own grave and then there's handing town your shovel.

VOTE: morph

I'm in.

[Tejate Raichu]

morph, are you comfortable with killing nQ tomorrow? Since we're in twilight I guess.

[Tejate Raichu]

Well, do you have a better idea then in lieu of a guilty?

[Tejate Raichu]

I suppose I'll think about it for if I'm alive come tomorrow. I feel like I'm the most likely to be murked outside of the Meg/Ceph situation.

Either way, it's been a pleasure playing with you. Say hi to Amazonian in the underworld for me.

[Tejate Raichu]

you dying tonight would be a godsend honestly lol

I think it's Tejate that always dies here - the cop checks are more cleared than the claimed cops

This is exactly what I meant yesterday when I said I'm most likely to die outside of Ceph/Meg. I feel like I'm probably just dead unless doctors wine. My flip proves nothing, fua's flip proves that I'm town. I know which one definitely looks better for scum, so I find it baffling that fua could propose themselves being the night kill in any universe. Plus I'm now starting to be widely townread, and if my newbie game reminded me of anything it's that that gets you killed.

@Tejate, @Enchant, @NQ why do you think that in the last bits of D3, fua tried to change GL from my cop pool to their own?

I have already expressed my opinion on this on day 3. I thought fua's proposed pools were terrible and they made me physically grimace. You not going with a GL check when your read has suddenly wrapped back to scum!GL though isn't reassuring either.

My unique fear is that NQ is in fact scum which means I would be wrong on one of GL/Fua.

if only there were some way to figure out NQ's alignment, maybe even an approach you may have speculated about and planned in great detail yesterday...

This bothers me a lot still, because mechanically speaking Shirou's plan

should

be correct. So why is there this sudden backpedal, and conflicting reads from Shirou? I still think that scum!fua should make itself apparent with the current plan, and while I certainly still don't full TR fua I don't see how the plan really needs to make a sudden change. Does flipping town not now just prove that either nQ or fua is fake? We could change Ceph's check to accommodate if you really want. Ceph checking fua with a town result should effectively confirm scum!nQ, no?

@Tejate, @Enchant you really think that Fua/GL is impossible and would bet on the game being literally any other team before that?

Please don't put words in my mouth just because I wasn't awake to post. I'm still considering what we should do if you flip town.

either of you = shirou/nq

okay but then what do you think is the solve if let's say, I flip town today?

What is the solve if either of me or GL flip town?

If you're town, it's gotta be GL/NQ from my perspective.

From what I'm expecting, the final day would have at least two of Tejate/Ceph/Enchant/Fua to decide the game result in that scenario.

That means the chance of us winning are still pretty good considering that's the solve all of you would most likely default to once I do flip.

If GL is town, it needs to be you/NQ, and the key to winning there is by leaving GL alive today so that he can protect Ceph, and for Ceph to check you.

If it's NQ/Ceph though...hm, what I'm doing right now is a terrible course of actions, and honestly there's a possibility it's just that, but hm...wouldn't it be a rather ballsy play...?

Sigh

Then why on EARTH are you not proposing nQ elimination? Every single possible scum team you list here besides fua/GL includes nQ. I'm sorry, but I really don't see the logic behind threatening to self-vote if you're town here. It makes far more sense for you to push for nQ elim, change Ceph target to you or fua, and then go to town. Do you not agree that fua or you coming up town proves the other as scum in the case of nQ elim?

UNVOTE:

@Ceph

Check me tonight to confirm Tejate and myself.

After one of NQ/Shirou dies can we lim GL?

i'll agree to this if everyone's cool with it

I'm probably just the kill tonight but I'm fine with this if we decide to flip nQ.

[Tejate Raichu]

Summarized to get it out of the wall of text: If we flip Shirou today and he's town, Ceph should check nQ or fua. If we flip nQ today and he's town, Ceph should check Shirou or fua. This makes sense to me.

[Tejate Raichu]

As for who I want to vote today, I don't know. I want to take some time to think about it. I think from a mech perspective, nQ just makes a lot of sense. Him flipping town ensures that we can trust Ceph's result, which means that unless Enchant is scum, Shirou or fua will be mechconfirmed scum. And then there's the obvious benefit that if he flips scum, we're on a good path to solving. Unless I'm missing something big, this should be correct.

But my heart is telling me that Shirou is still just scum here. I know it's less mechanically advantageous if Shirou flips town, but the way today has been handled just feels weird. There should have been no reason to go into panic mode over something that should have a very simple fix. Shirou flipping scum on the other hand hard confirms Ceph as well, and leaves us with a free cop check tomorrow between nQ and fua, wherein the pool is essentially nQ/fua/GL, short of any Enchant shenanigans. The problem is that this perfect scenario hinges on a scum flip from Shirou, and it's otherwise worth less than nQ.

[Tejate Raichu]

I'd like to get mech stuff sorted before the end of the day since I feel like I'm just going to be super dead tonight, so if anyone has any problems with my Ceph check proposal please engage.

[Tejate Raichu]

If I ever vote Enchant or Tejate consider it a scumclaim and turbolim me.

@Everyone.

Also, can we talk about this? What the fuck is this? Why am I listed among an unconfirmed but strong TR here as if I'm also a townread? I was CHECKED by you, you should know for a fact that I am town and this should be fairly obvious unspoken. It's not like nQ is saying "I'll never vote for Ceph" because that is very obvious. No one else should be eager to vote me either. Even if, and that's a big if, EVEN IF you think I'm scum, it is always mechanically better to go for fua first since that is my only possible partner. I'm not in imminent danger of being a potential vote on day 6, you are.

So why the hell would you say this as town cop? Why did you say that as if I'm merely a strong TR? Why do you say that as if I am EVER a potential mis-elim from the point you checked me without you being eliminated first?

[Tejate Raichu]

To be fair, anyone flipping scum confirms me

How does nQ scumflip confirm you?

[Tejate Raichu]

Okay, fair enough.

[Tejate Raichu]

I'd like to get mech stuff sorted before the end of the day since I feel like I'm just going to be super dead tonight, so if anyone has any problems with my Ceph check proposal please engage.

Hm, I think if whoever we flip today flips town, we kinda always should investigate fua because getting a guilty when the pool is this small isn't very helpful compared to an inno...

For example imagine we eliminate NQ today, they flip town for some reason and the pool is [Fua, GL, Shirou]. If you get a guilty there, you still need to risky a fifty-fifty on who is the last scum.

However if you get an inno, you automatically know the scum team.

Guilties are more valuable when you've multiple suspects (like the beginning of the game), but the smaller a pool is, the more helpful innos are.

The exception is...a guilty on fua. In my opinion if there's a deepwolf in this game, it's fua, and it's hard to imagine that we win against scum!fua without a guilty that can convince most people to vote there. I wouldn't want to vote fua without a guilty either if at all possible, if we're wrong, it would be a really bad mistake and everyone would be cursing us from the dead thread.

However hm...If I'm not being neutral, I guess I do like your plan considering a hypothetical inno on me would make me feel so peaceful/at ease. It would also be a really good result for town to narrow down the PoE as well, perhaps even more helpful than a guilty on fua since it would make the team look like GL/Fua by process of elimination.

However...that's only because I know I'm town of course...hypothetically speaking if you got a guilty on me, it would be actually a fairly wasted investigation since I was a common suspect anyway.

Who do you think Ceph should check in the case of scum!nQ flip?

[Tejate Raichu]

common suspect anyway.

Who do you think Ceph should check in the case of scum!nQ flip?

Hmm, I explained it before but in the case of a scum!NQ flip, we kinda have two choices:

Ceph would be not confirmed at all in that scenario, so:
1) If we treat them as conftown anyway we can try to confirm fua
2) If we include Ceph in the pool of suspects we need to give up in ever getting fua right here most likely

if NQ is scum, it means we've up to 2 miseliminations left to kill 3 players in the pool [Shirou, Ceph, GL]. There's by default/random a 25% mathematical probability we lose. If we check fua that problem remains, but if we check either GL or Me, it would mean we are guaranteed to win as long as fua isn't the last scum.

It's a tricky situation...and since I'm a coward, despite what I said, I believe including Ceph in the pool and not checking fua in this scenario is the correct choice to not have a potential salty postgame. If we lose to scum!fua everyone is just gonna praise fua, but if we lose to either scum!GL or scum!Ceph (and from a 3rd person pov, scum!me), we would be losing a game that was technically on a silver plate for us, just because of last minute paranoia.

Therefore, I would say if NQ is scum, either me or GL being checked is the go to choice for minimum risk? But I guess fua isn't unreasonable if you want to get dangerous...[/quote]Well here's the thing right, scum!Ceph doesn't actually gain anything by posting a false guilty. They'd still lose. In the case of redtea/nQ/Ceph, scum!Ceph HAS to come up with an inno tomorrow or we just 1f1 them. Which means that actually, I think we can wholeheartedly trust an inno on whoever they check regardless of nQ's alignment. As such, I actually see little reason to deviate in accounting for scum!nQ flip.

[Tejate Raichu]

Okay, how about this. We flip nQ, Ceph checks fua (regardless of nQ alignment), GL protects Ceph. Is everyone okay with that plan?

[Tejate Raichu]

Actually give me like an hour, I'll make a flow chart.

[Tejate Raichu]

Okay, how about this. We flip nQ, Ceph checks fua (regardless of nQ alignment), GL protects Ceph. Is everyone okay with that plan?

/shrug

I'm okay with this if it's what you want to do even though as I said, it's kinda risky if NQ flips scum since you give a 33% chance to scum!GL, scum!Shirou or scum!Ceph of winning...but hm, I'm fine with it I guess yeah.

To be fair this plan gives us a 100% chance of losing if Enchant is scum.

[Tejate Raichu]

You know what, I'm opening paint.net. Don't end the day yet.

[Tejate Raichu]

Alright I take it back, making flowcharts takes forever.

[Tejate Raichu]

Plan 1

Lim me (numberQ).

Ceph investigates fua.

Lim fua on a guilty, GL on inno.

If fua/GL is a mislim, we're at 3p ELo out of [fua/GL], Shirou, Tejate, Enchant, and Ceph (minus 2 nightkills).
Otherwise, we have one more mislim to hit the last scum.

If you are town and fua is town, neither myself nor Ceph can be scum. Which would just leave Shirou if we're still assuming the metaread is correct and Enchant is in fact town.

Plan 2

Lim Shirou.

Ceph investigates fua or GL.

On a guilty result, we get an obvious lim.
Innocent result: inno!fua means lim GL. inno!GL means lim... fua? me? Unclear.

? from here

This would be pretty much what I'd propose for a Shirou lim yeah, although I'd like to workshop it if we go that route.

[Tejate Raichu]

I haven't committed to a vote yet, so if you guys wanna switch to Shirou I'd like to properly figure out a plan of action. We don't need to commit to specific elims, but I'd at least like if we had some idea of what to do after Shirou's flip, no matter what it is.

[Tejate Raichu]

I still feel like nQ flip is just mechanically the better option unless we're really that sure that Shirou is scum. Outlook on nQ townflip is not the worst it could be, outlook on Shirou townflip is really bad.

[Tejate Raichu]

Ceph, since there's no way we can be on the same team, do you have a preference for elim? And if we went with Shirou, what do you think of his townflip plan?

[Tejate Raichu]

No way we can both be scumbuddies* Jesus Christ I need a coffee

[Tejate Raichu]

Actually. For me limming NQ just confirms the scumteam is Shirou/GL if he flips town. Tejate is town and Enchant is town. NQ town means Ceph is town too.

So if Ceph townreads me he should probably realize that an NQ flip just wins the game if he's town.

I mean, realistically I probably kinda die tonight. So just Enchant is town for you.

But yeah, that's what I'm stuck on. What Shirou has been saying has been (for the most part) agreeable... but I also feel like Shirou is just scum? I'm leaning a bit towards nQ flip but hmm.

[Tejate Raichu]

Declaring intent. Just want to make absolutely sure before we end the day, are you 100% clear on the plan?

[Tejate Raichu]

Also important, are we all prepared to take the fat L if Enchant is scum, because we don't really have any contingency for that at all.

[Tejate Raichu]

Yeah I know, I don't necessarily SR them. Just pointing out that there's really not much we can do if that ends up being the case. And I don't see a real way to work that possibility in either. So I think we all just need to accept that if we go with this plan, and Enchant is scum, we just kind of straight up lose 100% of the time. I hope you guys really are as confident as you say on your Enchant TRs.

[Tejate Raichu]

Also nQ, if you think fua is town, thinking I'm scum is in direct contradiction to that.

[Tejate Raichu]

Well, I'll hammer in like an hour or two if no one else has any objections. I do think that nQ flipping town is pretty close to a gamesolve.

In the case of nQ townflip:
Inno on fua = lim Shirou/GL
Guilty on fua = lim fua
Ceph dead = lim GL

I know we've gone over this plan like 5 times now, but nQ are you comfortable with this course of action in the case of your flip?

[Tejate Raichu]

@Tejate, @Enchant

Assume those two worst case scenarios:

Scenario A: NQ flips town, Ceph dies which confirms GL is scum, therefore final day is one of [Shirou, Fua].

Scenario B: NQ flips town, Ceph gets a guilty on fua, therefore final day is one of [Shirou, GL].

How likely are you to vote me in each scenario? Because I know voting me there is game losing anyway so this is an important question.

Again, I'm probably dead tonight. However, I'd need some time to think about it. In case of Shirou v fua, I feel like I'd probably be a bit more inclined to vote you but I would need some time to think about who is realistically more likely to be partners. From just redtea, you seem more likely but maybe there's something I missed. I really do not like redtea's entry post in response to fua either, that's one of the only interactions they've really had all game and it left a bad taste in my mouth at the time. Something to the effect of calling it ridiculous to suspect fua.

Shirou v GL, I'm a bit more suspicious of GL now on account of morph's flip so I don't really know. This seems like the most stressful LiLo situation for me to live to see.

[Tejate Raichu]

I would have to be a god tier player to ever be scum with GL and have the kind of interactions we've been having. Also, GL killing Ceph isn't alignment indicative regardless, it's just WIFOM.

GL shouldn't wine here. I'm comfortable with dying if it means we're on track to win. The NK target has to be one of Ceph and me or possibly Enchant, so wine isn't the absolute worst idea in theory. But in practice I wouldn't encourage it from GL tonight.

Also @nQ, because I'm actually more confirmed than fua is. As I have stated, me being town proves nothing about fua. It's the same reason why Meg was the target last night: since I am now leashed to being fua's partner in case I am scum, I am impossible to mis-elim without a fua flip. Meg was leashed to Shirou, so it would have been impossible to push mis-elim without Shirou flipping first. Therefor, besides Ceph and MAYBE Enchant if they really want to get townreads out, I make a fair bit of sense as the kill since I am one of the only kills left that doesn't reduce PoE.

[Tejate Raichu]

Do you not agree that the scum are pretty limited in their options tonight? Shirou, GL, nQ, and fua will NEVER be the kill in any scenario regardless of the flip. That would narrow down PoE for us to essentially the entire scumteam (assuming Enchant isn't scum). That leaves Ceph (who has GL claiming leashed), Enchant (who is widely TR'd but not mech confirmed), and myself (soft confirmed by cop claim and widely TR'd).

[Tejate Raichu]

If you had the choice of eliminating anyone today, who would it be?

[Tejate Raichu]

Would you be comfortable with having Ceph choose between checking fua or you on nQ townflip?

[Tejate Raichu]

I don't think it's worth being paranoid about. We all just need to collectively say now that we're willing to take the L if Enchant is scum. Because it really doesn't matter who they're buddied with if they're scum, we just lose to it no matter what.

[Tejate Raichu]

Is that hammer?

[Tejate Raichu]

Well, while we're still here I guess, I just want to say that if nQ flips town I'm okay with letting him choose between Shirou and fua investigation. Up to his discretion.

[Tejate Raichu]

@Tejate, @Enchant

Assume those two worst case scenarios:

Scenario A: NQ flips town, Ceph dies which confirms GL is scum, therefore final day is one of [Shirou, Fua].

Scenario B: NQ flips town, Ceph gets a guilty on fua, therefore final day is one of [Shirou, GL].

How likely are you to vote me in each scenario? Because I know voting me there is game losing anyway so this is an important question.

"hey friends, who should i kill tonight?"

-_-

Flashback to Shirou silently removing himself from cop pools.

[Tejate Raichu]

If I remove myself from cop checks you guys see it in a negative light, but if I want to be copped now it's also bad.

What do you guys want exactly...

Do you want to just let Ceph choose between you and fua regardless of flip result?

[Tejate Raichu]

Honestly, I'm okay with that if Ceph is.

[Tejate Raichu]

I'm still not entirely sure if I counted votes right so I'll hammer once Ceph resolves on what he'd like to do tonight.

[Tejate Raichu]

To be clear Ceph, same plan as before, just expanding your pool to allow you to check Shirou or fua.

[Tejate Raichu]

So we are in twilight then? Oh.

[Tejate Raichu]

That'd kind of be a weird hammer to try and pull a play like that on, seeing as I declared intent. No real need to distance yourself if you don't hop on the hammer at all.

Regardless, good luck everyone. Ceph, I believe in you to make the right call. I'm leaving it up to you to choose within the pool of suspects. Everyone else, please no paranoia about Enchant tomorrow short of a fucking miracle that makes them confscum. Just focus on what we have discussed.

Also, please do not cremate my corpse if I die tonight. I have a necromancer buddy, he'll fix me up right quick.

[Tejate Raichu]

Not gonna lie, I secretly want to die because I kind of want to see how the ghosts are doing. I miss when Amazonian was alive.

[Tejate Raichu]

The last thing I want to say while we're here is this:

oh and for last raichu is one of my favorite pokemons so I ask of you to be town so that I can see your cute avi for longer

please and thank you Tejate

Just for you, I will retroactively attempt to will a town PM into existence.[/quote]I'm sorry Shirou, but I lied. I was actually trying to will a mafia pm into existence before the game started but it didn't work.

[Tejate Raichu]

I like a challenge.

[Tejate Raichu]

Not gonna lie, I secretly want to die because I kind of want to see how the ghosts are doing. I miss when Amazonian was alive.

Ghosts are probably shit talking us a lot for being dumbasses. Especially now that Morph is there.

That's the best part of dead chat!

[Tejate Raichu]

I hope the day ends sooner so I can die and find out for myself.

[Tejate Raichu]

Does it matter? We're gonna be receiving our flip eventually anyways. Regardless, I trust Ceph to do what he thinks is best as far as the investigation go. Realistically as long as it's not outside of fua/Shirou/GL pool I'm okay with it.

[Tejate Raichu]

Aw man, I'm conftown and I'm not dead? Alright, let's do this.

I do wonder if there's a reason for Enchant dying rather than Tejate, or if it's just WIFOM.

Doubtful. No one was ever going to vote for Enchant anyways, only reason to keep them around was good ol paranoia.

[Tejate Raichu]

Well, let's see, if my math isn't off we have 2 eliminations and 3 suspects. Maybe instead of trying to scumread someone today, I might have a better idea.

Let's try to think of who we absolutely will not vote for in the pool of Ceph/GL/Shirou. If we get one good townread in this pool, we win the game. And it should theoretically be easier than trying to scumtell at this point.

[Tejate Raichu]

In his defense, I had some lingering paranoia about you. I might have checked you if I was a night 5 cop instead of a night 3 doc. Regardless, fua, do you have an opinion on my proposal? Does everyone in the pool look too scummy for this to work?

[Tejate Raichu]

I'm a firm believer that D1 and D2 with the sum totality of knowledge of the alignments of all the flipped players will probably ultimately be more helpful than D4/D5 when scum have more of an endgame plan, so I'll likely reread those days again at some point this weekend and try to decide which of Shirou/Ceph I think is scum

I was thinking a lot about day 1 between praying that I'd be the night kill so I could say hi to Amazonian. If I had followed up on my nQ or even redtea push harder, we might not be in this situation in the first place... I have a bad habit of sometimes losing a lot of confidence in my reads.

Regardless, I'm still not sure who I think the third scum is. I'm honestly not that sure if there's a good reason for scum!Ceph to clear fua. I think fua was still miselim potential. That doesn't necessarily make them town, but hm. Right now if I had to pick someone to not vote, it would probably be between GL or Ceph.

[Tejate Raichu]

Honestly, thinking about it, it may have been better if nQ flipped town funnily enough. town!nQ flip + town!fua check = scumteam 100% confirmed.

[Tejate Raichu]

Even if that happened I would 100% vote Shirou over you. Ehh, I guess this is sort of verging onto post-game discussion.

I think, today, I'd like us to case GL and Ceph. If we can just figure out who between them is most likely town, then the game is already over. I agree with GL's assessment that D1/D2 play is probably key to figuring this out.

[Tejate Raichu]

The first thing that really sticks out to me is GL's early suspicion of redtea in addition to their near constantly having similar opinions to mine. I suppose pushing a wagon on your partner day 1 isn't exactly unheard of, but in a setup like this? Then again, the wagon did fizzle out about mid day even though it definitely had potential. That could be by intention. There was morph's suspicion of distancing yesterday, hmm...

[Tejate Raichu]

The way the game is going, if Ceph flipped town I would definitely want to just get you. Then again it's also me or fua being the kill tonight so, maybe I won't end up choosing at all.

[Tejate Raichu]

If scum had pushed my mis-elim to go through, the game might already be over by now. So I think that is actually a pretty strong argument for town!GL. I usually don't say that kind of thing but... bussing in this setup is insanely risky. scum!GL should really not have been fine with pushing the wagon onto a partner.

Honestly, I think maybe the true play here is to get Shirou today just so we can avoid some wine tomorrow. Then we turbolim whoever we didn't decide looked townie tomorrow.

GL, what do you make of morph's suspicion of you given that they are posthumously conftown?

[Tejate Raichu]

If scum had pushed my mis-elim to go through, the game might already be over by now. So I think that is actually a pretty strong argument for town!GL. I usually don't say that kind of thing but... bussing in this setup is insanely risky. scum!GL should really not have been fine with pushing the wagon onto a partner.

Honestly, I think maybe the true play here is to get Shirou today just so we can avoid some wine tomorrow. Then we turbolim whoever we didn't decide looked townie tomorrow.

GL, what do you make of morph's suspicion of you given that they are posthumously conftown?

Ceph vs. GL would be wine too though…?

I suppose, I just really don't want you guys talked out of a Shirou elim at the pivotal moment. Honestly it's kind of impressive that he's still alive.

[Tejate Raichu]

I see.

[Tejate Raichu]

I feel like GL, your play has been very consistent this game. But... I also feel like the scum partner is most likely someone who was set up to deepwolf. I don't feel like day 1 went down the way it did without being the case. And I know I said bussing in this setup is risky, but it's also possible that maybe you didn't realize. Or maybe you liked the challenge, who can say.

And I don't think Ceph could ever really be a deepwolf. He had a fake cop check him... when he was in no real danger of getting voted? Where is the logic in that from scumteam SvS check? Ceph didn't do much with his psuedo-conftown status. From my perspective, this game at least, he's not really in a position where that plan makes much sense.

I still kind of thing Shirou just flips scum but man... this wine is delicious. The iocane powder really brings out the flavor.

[Tejate Raichu]

Maybe it was a pipe dream on my part to hope we'd be able to figure this out before LiLo. Oh well, I'll still try to figure it out before I'm possibly dead. I'd... really rather Ceph/GL be the pool tomorrow. Even if Shirou was town, I don't see a world in which he survives LiLo. Unless something has changed drastically about your guys' reads, I feel like Ceph flipping town is essentially the same thing as believing that GL is town from a mechanical perspective.

VOTE: Shirou

[Tejate Raichu]

GL, all I have to say is, if you're scum, you're doing a good job. No, maybe that doesn't quite encapsulate how I feel about the possibility of you being scum.

GL, if you are scum this game, you are a fucking menace. And well played in that case.

I'll read over day 1 some more and try to think about how I really feel about the both of you (GL/Ceph). It's difficult for me to see you as not town here, but I have the sneaking suspicion that the scumgame of someone who has been here for 7 years might be slightly okay. Just a little decent.

[Tejate Raichu]

I mean, Shirou, you kind of have to vote for Ceph followed by GL regardless of your alignment. Unless you think fua is a gamethrowing town and got a fake inno on me, from town!you's perspective those are the only real elims to go with. Same kinda goes for GL and Ceph. GL has to believe that the scum resides between you and Ceph, and Ceph has to believe that scum resides between you and GL. Which is why... don't take this as me trying to be mean, but if I'm valuing anyone's opinion on the matter today it's fua. Those of you in the pool kind of have to already be assuming you know which 2 people scum is within. fua and myself do not.

That being said, I do still want to hear GL's piece and consider who I probably wouldn't want to vote between GL/Ceph.

Also, I'm not committing to a GL townread yet. I'm almost kind of doing what implosion tried with GL earlier in the game, I'm kinda trying to force myself to look at their game in a scummy light.

[Tejate Raichu]

I didn't say don't give your thoughts.

[Tejate Raichu]

I was more pointing out who you want elim'd on its own doesn't really hold much weight, since all 3 of you should always pretty much want to elim those 2 people no matter what.

[Tejate Raichu]

That's correct, yep. One of has got to die, and any other kill pretty much strictly helps town.

If I end up making it to LiLo, could you say hi to Amazonian for me? Even though they can see this thread?

[Tejate Raichu]

Well, I myself haven't come to a decision yet, but I figure now's a good a time as any to ask. fua, if you don't survive the night and I am the decision maker at LiLo assuming we flip town!Ceph today, who would you be most likely to scream at me from dead thread to vote?

[Tejate Raichu]

I know town can be wildly wrong, but I do want fua's input on this since I know now for sure that they're town. And to be clear I meant between the remaining pool of Shirou/GL.

And, fair enough I suppose.

[Tejate Raichu]

Okay, just one more question. If we flipped Shirou today, he flips town. Who are you leaning towards? Still Ceph?

[Tejate Raichu]

Although it's not 100% and I would rather let you choose than anything else.

I know, but man LiLo is stressful. My worst fear is that I survive to it and get all the flak if we lose.

[Tejate Raichu]

Alright. I'd still like to hear a bit from GL and actually especially Ceph since he hasn't spoken much today. I'll go ahead and declare non-specific intent to hammer either Shirou or Ceph.

I'm still leaning a little towards getting Shirou first, but if we're assuming GL town then order doesn't really matter.

[Tejate Raichu]

Well, if Shirou is really okay with losing regardless of alignment if Ceph flips town... I guess we could just assume GL town and end this day. Shirou, you're prepared for the consequences of your own actions if the game doesn't end on my hammer?

[Tejate Raichu]

Also, could we all vote fast night if the game doesn't end? It kinda seems like we're approaching consensus on what to do, so turbolimming might just be the play.

[Tejate Raichu]

That was a bit rash. If you're town, then yes I certainly had a part to play as well. Regardless, if you're fine with losing on a Ceph townflip, and you're okay with fast night, then I am okay with hammering right now.

[Tejate Raichu]

I'm willing to accept my own fault if we lose the game to GL scum.

[Tejate Raichu]

Alright. I have this awful feeling in the pit of my stomach that's telling me GL might be scum, but here goes nothing.

UNVOTE: Shirou
VOTE: Cephrir

That should be hammer.

[Tejate Raichu]

If this isn't it, and I'm dead tomorrow... good luck everyone. Especially fua, I do not envy your position in that specific situation.

[Tejate Raichu]

Will you be voting fast night if it comes to that GL?

[Tejate Raichu]

All of the energy is leaving my body.

[Tejate Raichu]

I would have probably scumread me off of d2 play either. Looking back, it reminded me a lot of how I played town in the SH days. I believe I mentioned before but in SH's heyday, I actually used to be way better at scum than town. As scum I would pull off these crazy plays, direct bullets, and get people to trust me enough to elect me chancellor. Then as town, I would say the most incriminating shit feasible.

[Tejate Raichu]

I think it was a fine play to do SvS cop check, but it may have been worth it to try claiming a later night. As we saw here, N1 cop claim with alive target is almost bound to get elimmed or checked at some point, just for the info. The mech seems to favor scum!cop claims to claim mid or later nights.

[Tejate Raichu]

I would have probably scumread me off of d2 play either. Looking back, it reminded me a lot of how I played town in the SH days. I believe I mentioned before but in SH's heyday, I actually used to be way better at scum than town. As scum I would pull off these crazy plays, direct bullets, and get people to trust me enough to elect me chancellor. Then as town, I would say the most incriminating shit feasible.

thought you played a good game, your early reads were actually pretty on point. I was scared I might be throwing you into the deep end by inviting you after 1 game in the newbie queue but I felt you held your own here.

I was honestly a bit surprised that both of my hard scumreads for day 1 were correct. I guess I'm improving on that front. My secret is that I've been scrolling Vigilante and forcing myself to shoot night 2 in Town of Salem recently. Thank you for the invite and modding, by the way!