Mini 2331 - Touhou UPick: Anonymous Edition (Game Over)

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Like "Hmm a canon bodyguard, let's make her a bodyguard" writes itself

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Reisen's canon abilities all revolve around the manipulation of wavelengths, which in practice she only really uses to cause hallucinations and insanity

[Kaguya Houraisan]

And from the not related to abilities side she's Eirin's apprentice (Super Doctor that made the Hourai Elixir which makes anyone who drinks it unable to die) and does errands for her and also tends to be the test subject for Eirin's shady drugs. The design space just isn't really there to make her a spellcard blocker

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Is a combination of no lim and:
Reisen uses Illusion Seeker on Koishi
Koishi Bodyguards Aya
Aya watches Marisa
Marisa uses guilty generator
optimal?

If Koishi/Aya gets shot Reisen delays Koishi's death until the next night
If Marisa gets shot Aya sees the kill
If Marisa survives the guilty generator gets used
Both conftown always survive until tomorrow, and the number of mislims available stays the same

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Is a combination of no lim and:
Reisen uses Illusion Seeker on Koishi
Koishi Bodyguards Aya
Aya watches Marisa
Marisa uses guilty generator
optimal?

If Koishi/Aya gets shot Reisen delays Koishi's death until the next night
If Marisa gets shot Aya sees the kill
If Marisa survives the guilty generator gets used
Both conftown always survive until tomorrow, and the number of mislims available stays the same

Why can't we lim and have the same pattern as long as we don't lim Reisen or Marisa?

Because if there's a 1f1 we can't lim both

[Kaguya Houraisan]

1f1?

If we lim someone here and Marisa comes out with a guilty we don't have time to lim both the guilty and Marisa

If we no lim we have time to lim both

[Kaguya Houraisan]

How does a no lim buy us enough time though? Either way, if the target flips town, scum!Marisa would claim a misinterpretation and so would town her.

If Marisa's guilty flips town she gets flipped 100% of the time. Having the time to flip both means that scum Marisa can't fake a guilty to force a winning 1v1

[Kaguya Houraisan]

They've had multiple takes where they seem to take things at face value that I'm not sure they should if they aren't forcing themselves to present themselves in a certain light or because the beliefs suit them. I'm not sure what's missing there.

Examples? I'm taking things mostly at face value because the accounted for scum actions so far would point to one person fakeclaiming to hide the spellblock and the other either mostly or entirely fullclaiming

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I don't understand their reversal on reisen even after reading their reasoning.
It's pretty much "I'd expect a role blocker - like abilities to mess with people' but I wouldn't expect that to extend specifically to spell cards because that doesn't fit thematically"

It's close enough *psyduck* it doesn't need to reach that level of specification to be thematically appropriate I wouldn't expect such a close adherence either.

The problem is that to fit the theme it's all or nothing. Either you block everything by shifting stuff out of phase like with

Spread Sign "Invisible Full Moon"

Owner:
Reisen Udongein Inaba
Stage 5 — Hard

Comment:
Just by shifting things out of tune by a hair's breadth, the whole world vanishes.
Because it's out of tune, the true full moon is invisible. ...Does that make it a new moon?

Or you don't block it at all

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Like Yuuka go check out the canon Reisen Imperishable Night spellcards for the type of theming that would be happening

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Ichirin Kumoi,

Medicine Melancholy - Little Sweet Poison

, aligned with

Incident Resolvers

, was eliminated Day 1.

Spoiler: Flip

Medicine Melancholy

You are

Medicine Melancholy - Little Sweet Poison

.
You are aligned with

Incident Resolver

Confusion "Into Delirium"

[Spellcard][Night]

- This specific type of poison confuses target into targeting your own target instead. Additionally, the target gains 3 stacks of poison.
Poison Sign "Nerve Poison"

[Spellcard][Night]

- You increase the virulence of the stacked poison on all players on the following day. The players with only one stack of poison will become weakened(

Hated

) for a day. The players with two stacks of poison will become weakened(

Hated

) and crippled(

Macho

) for a day and night. The players with three stacks of poison will become weakened(

Hated

), crippled(

Macho

), and unstable (

Actions are redirected to random target

) for a day and night.

Affected players will be notified of the effect of the poison and their duration.

Poison just for you

[Active][Night]

- You can visit the target and choose to either increase or decrease the poison stack. You also learn the resulting poison stack count of the target at the end of the night.

Sweet Little Poison

[Passive]

- Players who visit you will gain a stack of poison. It's totally their fault for visiting you. The poison can be stacked up to 3 times, and the target will be told how severely they are poisoned. The poison has no effect until

Poison Sign "Nerve Poison"

is used.

Win Condition:

Eliminate all

Incident Causers

Spoiler: Canon

Confusion "Into Delirium"

Owner:
Medicine Melancholy
Level 4 — 7

Comment:
Today, the air is even more stagnant.
I'm fine, but the camera doesn't seem to be.
You can barely see anything in these pictures. Poor thing.

(This is from Shoot The Bullet so this is canonically Aya making comments)

Confusion "Into Delirium"

• User: Medicine Melancholy
  
• Notes: Neurotoxin stress type
  
• Reference Level: Nah, I'm tryin' to take care of my health

A Spell Card that's even worse than Poison Breath. This one mainly puts pressure on you by obscuring your vision. Most of the danmaku is totally invisible thanks to the mist covering it.
At times like this, your only options are either dodging with your mind's eye, or beatin' her before you get hit.
Cowardly danmaku like this ain't bad. If I'm usin' it, at least.

(This is from The Grimoire of Marisa so this is canonically Marisa making comments for replicating spellcards)

Poison Sign "Nerve Poison"

Owner: Medicine Melancholy

(No canon flavoring on this one, Phantasmagoria of Flower View)

Tenshi Hinanawi,

Tenshi Hinanawi - Girl of the Sphere of Neither Perception nor Non-Perception

, aligned with

Incident Resolvers

, was eliminated Night 1.

Spoiler: Flip

Tenshi Hinanawi

You are

Tenshi Hinanawi - Girl of the Sphere of Neither Perception nor Non-Perception

.
You are aligned with

Incident Resolver

Abilities:

Keystone "World Creation Press"

[Spellcard][Night]

- You slam a giant keystone onto the ground and shake the very core of the earth. The resulting shockwaves prevents the other players from successfully using their

[Active]

ability.
Peach Sign "Hermit's Peach of Steadfast Durability"

[Spellcard][Night]

- You consume a celestial peach that strengthens your physical resiliance. You become bulletproof for the night.

Sword of Hisou

[Active][Night]

- You can use your Sword of Hisou to gather your target's Ki and manipulate the weather around them to one of the choices below. This ability cannot be used on the same target consecutively.
* Typhoon - Delays an

[Active]

ability by a phase
* Spring Haze - Disables an

[Active]

ability for the next phase
* Drizzle - Motivates an

[Active]

ability
* Sunny - Make an

[Active]

ability resolve without any potential modifiers

Troublemaker Celestial

[Passive]

- Your arrogance and bratty nature makes others want nothing to do with you. You are immune to being neighborized.

Win Condition:

Eliminate all

Incident Causers

Eternity Larva,

Seiran - The Pale Blue Eagle Ravi

, aligned with

Incident Causers

, was eliminated Night 1.

Spoiler: Flip

Seiran

You are

Seiran - The Pale Blue Eagle Ravi

.
You are aligned with

Incident Causer

Abilities:

Bullet Sign "The Eagle Shot Its Target"

[Spellcard][Night]

- You mark the target with your Lunarian targeting device. Your actions against the marked target next night will be treated as strongwilled.
Gun Sign "Lunatic Gun"

[Spellcard][Day/Night]

- Back in the day when you were a soldier, you were supplied a gun, and you've kept it ever since. You can load the gun with one of the spellcard you have copied from your

Ex-Infiltrator

or

Dango Salesgirl

ability, and use it on the target during the phase specified by the spellcard.

Dango Salesgirl

[Active][Night]

- You visit a player and give them a Dango. Target is notified that they received a Dango. Also, you learn the first-listed Spell Card of the target.

Ex-Infiltrator

[Passive]

- You utilize a simple trick or two learned from your scouting experience. The neighborhoods you are in are undetectable, and cannot be influenced by any means. Additioanlly, you learn the first-listed Spellcard of the players in the neighborhood you join.

Factional Ability:

Win Condition:

Eliminate all

Incident Resolvers

, or reach the state where such is unpreventable.

Spoiler: Canon

Keystone "World Creation Press"

Comment:
Taking the great heights above the screen, Tenshi descends onto the opponent with an enlarged keystone in her arms. A wanton technique.

(From Scarlet Weather Rhapsody, a fighting game. Literally drops a giant rock on your opponent)

Peach Sign "Hermit's Peach of Steadfast Durability"

Owner: Tenshi Hinanawi

At 9:03


(From Antimony of Common Flowers, a fighting game. Makes you invulnerable for the duration of the spellcard)

Spoiler: Canon

Bullet Sign "The Eagle Has Shot Its Target"

Owner:
Seiran
Stage 1 — Lunatic

(No canon flavoring on this one)

Gun Sign "Lunatic Gun"

Owner:
Seiran
Stage 1 — Lunatic

(Also no canon flavoring here)

The elimination was not changed.

Sanae Kochiya -

Patchouli Knowledge - Great Unmoving Library

, aligned with

Incident Resolvers

, was eliminated Day 2.

Spoiler: Role PM

Patchouli Knowledge

You are

Patchouli Knowledge - The Great Unmoving Library

.
You are aligned with

Incident Resolver

Fire Sign "Agni Shine"

[Spellcard][Night]

- Tracks the target. High level follows the target.
Water Sign "Princess Undine"

[Spellcard][Night]

- Protects target from a single kill attempt during the night. High level protects target from multiple kill attempts.
Wood Sign "Sylphy Horn"

[Spellcard][Night]

- Neighborizes a target with you. High level neighborizes two targets of your choice.
Earth Sign "Lazy Trilithon"

[Spellcard][Night]

- Learns the action of the dead player the night they died. High level learns all night actions of the dead player.
Metal Sign "Metal Fatigue"

[Spellcard][Night]

- Delays the target's action. High level roleblocks the target.
Sun Sign "Royal Flare"

[Spellcard][Night]

- Turns the target voteless during the next day. High level also turns the target hated for the day.
Moon Sign "Silent Selene"

[Spellcard][Night]

- Shuts down Neighborhood for a phase if the target is in one. High level shuts it down permanently.

Magic Supremacy

[Active][Night]

- You begin the game with 1 Magic Point (MP for short), and gains 1 MP every beginning of the subsequent days.
Using a spellcard normally consumes 1 MP.
With 2 MP, you can choose to use two spellcards in conjunction with a single usage, or use a high level version of the spellcard.
With 3 MP, you can use a powerful spellcared

Fire Water Wood Metal Earth Sign "Philosopher's Stone"

, which uses all the remaining spellcards you have for one of the following effects:

Spoiler: Philosopher's Stone

Neighborize the target and exits the game together for a single phase, becoming untargetable but also disable all actions, posting, and voting.
Reveals your alignment and become untargetable for a day and night publicly, and become a treestump when dead.
Gains all Spell Cards of an eliminated player, unless otherwise noted.

Using the spellcards with insufficient points will cause you to die after the card's activation.

Frail Elementalist

[Passive]

- As a high level magician, you begin the game with a lot more spellcards compared to other players. However, you can only activate the spellcards twice per game, even if you would have spellcards left after. Additionally, you cannot be protected from any killing actions.

Scarlet Devil Mansion

[Passive]

- You are in a neighborhood with

Marisa Kirisame

.

Win Condition:

Eliminate all

Incident Causers

Spoiler: Canon

Fire Sign "Agni Shine"

Owner:
Patchouli Knowledge
Stage 4 — Easy/Normal (Reimu-A)

Spell Card Pattern Description:
Her first spell card as Reimu-A on easy/normal mode. Patchouli creates waves of fireballs that circle around her, then change angle and expand the circle outwards.

(From Embodiment of Scarlet Devil)

Fire Sign "Agni Shine"

• User: Patchouli Knowledge
  
• Notes: Basic magic, the book burns
  
• Reference Level: ★★★

A fire vortex Spell Card. The most simple and danmaku-like danmaku.
Even I could easily use something this simple, but if you look carefully, she's makin' the vortex wobble to open up gaps for dodging.
That might show her composure, but I'd probably need some sorta knack to make the gaps form at fixed intervals.

(From The Grimoire of Marisa)

Fire Sign "Agni Shine High Level"

Owner:
Patchouli Knowledge
Stage 4 — Normal (Marisa-A), Hard/Lunatic (Reimu-A)

Spell Card Pattern Description:
Her second spell on normal mode as Marisa-A, and her first spell on hard/lunatic as Reimu-A. This is very similar to "Agni Shine", but the circles are formed by fireballs going in opposite directions.

(From Embodiment of Scarlet Devil)

Water Sign "Princess Undine"

Owner:
Patchouli Knowledge
Stage 4 — Easy/Normal (Reimu-B)

Spell Card Pattern Description:
Her first spell card as Reimu-B on easy/normal mode. She shoots 3-way thin lasers aimed at the player while expeding blue bullets from above herself. Then she shoots multiple lines of large aimed bullets, as she shoots a 3-way pattern of slow, medium sized blue bullets that also aim at the player.


(From Embodiment of Scarlet Devil)

Water Sign "Princess Undine"

• User: Patchouli Knowledge
  
• Notes: Basic magic, the book gets soggy
  
• Reference Level: ★★★

A Spell Card that scatters water blobs. The water blobs fly in straight lines, so it's easily readable.
That's probably why she shoots the lasers. To balance the difficulty.

(From The Grimoire of Marisa)

Water Sign "Bury In Lake"

Owner:
Patchouli Knowledge
Stage 4 — Hard/Lunatic (Reimu-B)

Spell Card Pattern Description:
Her first spell as Reimu-B on hard/lunatic. Visually similar to "Princess Undine", Patchouli shoots thin lasers that close in on the player, as she produces circles of blue aimed bullets around her. When she finishes, she moves to the side while shooting lanes of large bullets around the player, then quickly returns to the middle.

(From Embodiment of Scarlet Devil, thematically would be the higher level Water Sign)

Wood Sign "Sylphy Horn"

Owner:
Patchouli Knowledge
Stage 4 — Easy/Normal (Marisa-A)

Spell Card Pattern Description:
Her first spell card as Marisa-A on easy/normal. Patchouli shoots green bullets from herself that fall to the lower left corner, while the right side of the screen spawns more green bullets that go in the same direction.

(From Embodiment of Scarlet Devil)

Wood Sign "Sylphy Horn"

• User: Patchouli Knowledge
  
• Notes: Basic magic, the book dances
  
• Reference Level: ★★★

A Spell Card made of leaves dancing in the wind.
I'm good at this kind of magic, too. Spell Cards like this are easy as pie: you just activate them, then sit back an' watch. One problem is that you can't attack the opponent directly, though.

(From The Grimoire of Marisa)

Wood Sign "Sylphy Horn High Level"

Owner:
Patchouli Knowledge
Stage 4 — Normal (Reimu-B), Hard/Lunatic (Marisa-A)

Spell Card Pattern Description:
Her second spell for Reimu-B on normal mode, and first spell as Marisa-A on hard/lunatic. Behaves very similarly to "Sylphy Horn", but the direction of the bullets changes to the lower right, and it's far denser.

(From Embodiment of Scarlet Devil)

Earth Sign "Lazy Trilithon"

Owner:
Patchouli Knowledge
Stage 4 — Easy/Normal (Marisa-B)

Spell Card Pattern Description:
Her first spell card as Marisa-B on easy/normal mode. Patchouli spawns brown bullets that slowly go lower in the screen and take a random direction in seemingly large clumps.

(From Embodiment of Scarlet Devil)

Earth Sign "Lazy Trilithon"

• User: Patchouli Knowledge
  
• Notes: Basic magic, the book gets dirty
  
• Reference Level: ★★★

A Spell Card that hurls mud balls.
It's basically playing in the mud. If you get hit, you get covered in mud and start t' stink.

(From The Grimoire of Marisa)

Earth Sign "Lazy Trilithon High Level"

Owner:
Patchouli Knowledge
Stage 4 — Normal (Reimu-A), Hard/Lunatic (Marisa-B)

Spell Card Pattern Description:
Her second spell as Marisa-B on hard/lunatic. Very similar to "Lazy Trilithon", but the bullets are much faster.

(From Embodiment of Scarlet Devil)

Metal Sign "Metal Fatigue"

Owner:
Patchouli Knowledge
Stage 4 — Normal (Marisa-B)

Spell Card Pattern Description:
Her second spell card as MarisaB on normal mode. She spawns large yellow bullets in a circle around her, and those first generation bullets in turn spawn bullets of the same kind around themselves. The second generation bullets won't reproduce. This gives the illusion that Patchouli is spinning bullets around herself and repelling them.

Metal Sign "Metal Fatigue"

• User: Patchouli Knowledge
  
• Notes: Basic magic, the book nothin' happens [1]
  
• Reference Level: ★★★

A Spell Card that hurls bullets made of metal.
The bullets break an' split apart in midair. In the world of danmaku, broken bullets are often tougher. Why? 'Cause a loss is a loss, no matter what kind of bullet hits ya.

Metal Sign "Silver Dragon"

Owner:
Patchouli Knowledge
Stage 4 — Hard/Lunatic (Marisa-B)

Spell Card Pattern Description:
Her second spell as Marisa-B on hard/lunatic mode. Patchouli makes three-layered circles of medium sized silver bullets. The circle as a whole is aimed at the player, and the bullets pile up as they spawn quickly.

Sun Sign "Royal Flare"

Owner:
Patchouli Knowledge
Extra — Extra

Spell Card Pattern Description:
A complex pattern that comes from multiple invisible enemies that spin while shooting red bullets. Patchouli stays still on top the entire time.

Sun Sign "Royal Flare"

• User: Patchouli Knowledge
  
• Notes: Advanced magic, your throat gets parched
  
• Reference Level: ★★★★

A Spell Card that produces an explosive light.
It's hard to dodge, but the fact that she made sure to set up an evasion route shows that she knows what Spell Cards are for.

Moon Sign "Silent Selene"

Owner:
Patchouli Knowledge
Extra — Extra

Spell Card Pattern Description:
Patchouli shoots lanes that get denser as time passes, ending when she shoots bullets below herself, while small bullets rain from random spots on the screen.

Moon Sign "Silent Selene"

• User: Patchouli Knowledge
  
• Notes: Advanced magic, you can read the book in silence
  
• Reference Level: ★★★★

A Spell Card where moonlight pours down vertically.
Her elemental magic up 'til now was easy to understand, but it's a mystery as to what properties "moon" and "sun" have.

Fire Water Wood Metal Earth Sign "Philosopher's Stone"

Owner:
Patchouli Knowledge
Extra — Extra

Spell Card Pattern Description:
Patchouli spawns five magic books around herself, each with an associated color and element. The book on the far left shoots blue (water), spread bullets that aim at the player. The book on the far left generates circles of grey (metal) bullets that aim at the player, similarly to "Silver Dragon". The one on the middle left shoots slow yellow (earth) bullets in random directions, which then stop and change directions. The book on the middle right shoots green (wood) bullets in random directions, which then fall towards the lower left corner of the screen, and the book below patchouli shoots red (fire) circles that cross over each other. Patchouli herself stays in the top middle of the screen during the spell.

Fire Water Wood Metal Earth Sign "Philosopher's Stone"

• User: Patchouli Knowledge
  
• Notes: Combined magic, slave-type with lotsa books
  
• Reference Level: ★★★★★★★

A Spell Card that crystallizes the five basic elements of her magic, then fires magic from the crystals.
Since she's calling up a whole bunch of magic types at once, the danmaku shot by each individual gem is weak. She's probably only capable of making 'em fire automatically.
I wanna know how to make gems like these, but no matter what book I read, there aren't any specific procedures written.
The philosopher's stone... All I learned about it from books is that it can turn base metals into noble metals, it can restore everyone's health, an' sprinkling it on your cooking makes any dish taste delicious. Man, I'd love to make a five-colored lunch topped with philosopher's stone.

Clownpiece,

Toyosatomimi no Miko - Shoutoku Taoist

, aligned with

Incident Resolvers

, was eliminated Night 2.

Spoiler: Role PM

Toyosatomimi no Miko

You are

Toyosatomimi no Miko - Shoutoku Taoist

.
You are aligned with

Incident Resolver

Secret Treasure "Armillary Sphere of Ikaruga-dera"

[Spellcard][Day]

- You display an armillary sphere, the symbol of heaven and authority, to all. You become immune to being voted for the day, and the votes on you reset. Additionally, once the elimination is achieved (including No Elimination), you can choose to change the target of the elimination within 24 hours of the thread lock.
Discernment "Laser of Seventeen Articles"

[Spellcard][Night]

- You shoot a laser of the Japanese Seventeen Articles (We call it the Constitution nowadays) at the target. You learn whether the target is aligned with

Incident Resolver

or not.

Shukuchi

[Active][Night]

- A supernatural ability gained as a result of your hermitry. You can choose to commute during the night. This ability cannot be used consecutively.

Ten Desires

[Passive]

- The desires of an individual attracts you. At the end of the day, you will create a neighborhood with a random target for a night to listen to their desires. This neighborhood only lasts until the end of next day.

Win Condition:

Eliminate all

Incident Causers

Spoiler: Canon

Secret Treasure "Armillary Sphere of Ikaruga-dera"

Owner:
Toyosatomimi no Miko
Stage 6 — Hard

(From Ten Desires)

Discernment "Laser of Seventeen Articles"

Owner:
Toyosatomimi no Miko
Stage 6 — Normal

[Kaguya Houraisan]

tl;dr unless there's pretty much no canon flavoring like Seiran or Toyosatomimi no Miko then there's pretty much always gonna be an element of canon in the PM

Medicine (Not a lot of canon) had Confusion "Into Delirium" which is poison that obscures vision which got translated into picking who your target targets

Tenshi had Peach Sign "Hermit's Peach of Steadfast Durability" which in the fighting game makes you take no damage which got translated as 1-shot BP

Patchouli had canonical high level spellcards of the same spellcard which got translated into the 1MP/2MP spellcard types where she could pick which one she wanted

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Kaguya, mech aside, who is scum?

I'd rather not set mech aside while it's still useful, thanks. Pure readswise completely divorced of mech I'd probably put the kill list as Kagerou -> Marisa -> Yuuka/Reisen.

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Kaguya, mech aside, who is scum?

I'd rather not set mech aside while it's still useful, thanks. Pure readswise completely divorced of mech I'd probably put the kill list as Kagerou -> Marisa -> Yuuka/Reisen.

Where's Dai?

In the Do Not Kill area of the list

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I don't think scum would decide to come out with an ability that lets them unalive themselves and say they're gonna actively try to use it and then actively uses it to get killed, especially cause she wasn't really in any danger positionally that'd warrant trying a delaying tactic like that (if I'm assuming she'd always try to rezz as scum)

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I mean if it wasn't for the start of D3 Dai would essentially be going from "middle of the POE" to "kill immediately"

[Kaguya Houraisan]

The level of positional danger I'm talking about is e.g. Sanae d1 where the only reason she survived is cause she claimed she could treestump herself at night

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I mean if it wasn't for the start of D3 Dai would essentially be going from "middle of the POE" to "kill immediately"

And what happened there?

I was temporarily holding back me being in the Clownpiece hood for reactions and she came back and called me out for being in the Clownpiece hood and not saying anything after like 24 hours of the day starting (since the self rezz is on a timer)

[Kaguya Houraisan]

The level of positional danger I'm talking about is e.g. Sanae d1 where the only reason she survived is cause she claimed she could treestump herself at night

Have you considered that you're too scared of repeating the past you're letting scum go?

What are the odds of two similar abilities both being town?

Aya and I are both Stealthy

Yuuka and Aya are both Watchers

Ichirin and Aya and Reisen can all Redirect

[Kaguya Houraisan]

So she ruined your method of scumhunting and you're giving townpoints? Not believing something's useful is one thing but...

How about you go read the start of D3 and go form your own opinions

[Kaguya Houraisan]

If it wasn't for Marisa pretty obviously being the scum spellblocker I'd be voting Kagerou rn just fyi

[Kaguya Houraisan]

*snarkless*
I don't agree with the reasoning that overlapping roles increases the chance of one of the players being scum. This is based on personal experience and observation.

Why do you think overlapping roles are more likely to have one of the players being scum?

respond to this please.

In the case of death, it's because we don't have protection roles. Plus Dai revived, so they skipped investigatives which you don't seem concerned with.

My spellcard let me doc multiple people
Koishi is a confirmed bodyguard
Sanae had a doc spellcard
Tenshi had a BP spellcard
Clownpiece had a Non-Consecutive Commute active

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Blocked.

What do you mean by this

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Yeah but I’m not understanding why it’s a clearing action to kaguya if they could come back, it’s like a zero risk possible reward situation.

Coming back per se isn't clearing, it's actively trying to Dai instead of keeping it in her pocket and just claiming like Hider or Redirector or something that's clearing

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Well it was a loud ability. Idk how many ways you can flip it.

Yeah, so she could have just claimed the redirection parts, not mention anything about dying if her target dies, then just never shot anyone she's targetting. If she's scum she'd have had to specifically suicide into Clownpiece instead of taking a shot at Aya/Koishi or something

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Blocked.

What do you mean by this

Factional block by scum presuming.

Every town role has a downside.

Why are you assuming scum have a factional block instead of it being an active/spellcard?

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Well it was a loud ability. Idk how many ways you can flip it.

Yeah, so she could have just claimed the redirection parts, not mention anything about dying if her target dies, then just never shot anyone she's targetting. If she's scum she'd have had to specifically suicide into Clownpiece instead of taking a shot at Aya/Koishi or something

Then it’s just a wasted ability no?

As scum I'd argue having a wasted ability is better than actively killing yourself with your ability, idk about you

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I guess I am indeed in kill one of Reisen/Kagerou and try to extract the truth from what Marisa claims. Or they make it easy by claiming a guilty equivalent on me like I asked if they're scum.

Day copped you and it’s red!

Incident Resolvers are red, lets go Yuuka town

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Well it was a loud ability. Idk how many ways you can flip it.

Yeah, so she could have just claimed the redirection parts, not mention anything about dying if her target dies, then just never shot anyone she's targetting. If she's scum she'd have had to specifically suicide into Clownpiece instead of taking a shot at Aya/Koishi or something

Then it’s just a wasted ability no?

As scum I'd argue having a wasted ability is better than actively killing yourself with your ability, idk about you

But they don’t….they just come back.

What's more sus:

1. Loudly reviving to bring the game back to Evens without a good reason
   
2. Not dying in the first place

Scum Dai can't predict that I'd hold back the Clownpiece hood so "Loudly reviving to bring the game back to Evens for a good reason" isn't an option

[Kaguya Houraisan]

And look good doing it, that’s the point of doing it.

idk why people aren't getting this: She only looked good cause I held back the hood, therefore for it to be better than just not suiciding she'd need to have predicted I'd hold back the hood

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Evens/odds is only like a marginal advantage/disadvantage. And probably wouldn’t be my main concern.

Even/odds is the difference between having 1 conftown in 5p and having 0 conftown in 5p

[Kaguya Houraisan]

And look good doing it, that’s the point of doing it.

idk why people aren't getting this: She only looked good cause I held back the hood, therefore for it to be better than just not suiciding she'd need to have predicted I'd hold back the hood

Eli5 please

If I immediately claim the Clownpiece hood then town Dai has 0 reason to be reviving D3. Therefore coming back would be a scumclaim. Therefore for suiciding and coming back to be a good scum move she'd need to predict in advance that I'd hold back the Clownpiece hood for long enough for it to look bad

The alternative move would have just been to not kill Clownpiece in the first place and go shoot someone else which would avoid having to suicide and would be easy to pull off given that Clownpiece claimed Charged Commuter who's commuting N2 in thread D2

[Kaguya Houraisan]

It would especially be a scumclaim given that she claimed in thread D2 that she'd be trying to kill herself for the rest of the game

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Kaguya, did yuuka/dai’s timing on when dai came back to thread not bother you at all?

I’ve been mulling over it for awhile now.

What do you mean? Dai came back like 10 minutes before 24 hours after the flip passed and also claimed to be on a timer for sending in the revive command

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I still don't get how any of that is relevant. Dai had two nightshots FoSing her. They're an investigation target. I don't see how a Clownpiece hood has any relevance.

Clownpiece claimed Charged Commuter who's Commuting N2 on D2. The only people that knew this to be a fakeclaim were Aya (conftown) and me (since Clownpiece claimed it in the hood) and also anyone who targeted Clownpiece N1. Since I wasn't claiming the hood that means that no one was claiming the hood -> Assumption is that scum got put in the hood and don't want to come out with that info

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Kaguya, did yuuka/dai’s timing on when dai came back to thread not bother you at all?

I’ve been mulling over it for awhile now.

What do you mean? Dai came back like 10 minutes before 24 hours after the flip passed and also claimed to be on a timer for sending in the revive command

Why does anyone of any any alignment NOT press the button I guess is my objection to this being clearing.


And we don't actively have any proof that this timer exists.

Pressing the button isn't clearing, it's getting into the scenario where you have to press the button in the first place when you control all the kills that's clearing

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Dai came back after yuuka publicly voiced concern about who clownpiece was in the hood with. Dai came back like immediately after.

What's your point?

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Dai came back after yuuka publicly voiced concern about who clownpiece was in the hood with. Dai came back like immediately after.

What's your point?

I was curious why it never even crossed your mind as suspicious.

I don't understand why it'd be suspicious

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Yuuka makes the public realization that the clownpiece hood is unclaimed, dai pops back in with the knowledge you were in the hood with clown and drops a vote. It would be suspicious if I were you. It doesn’t involve me and I made note of it timing wise.

Still not getting why this is suspicious, do you think other people weren't having the realization of "everyone checked in and no one has claimed the hood -> either Dai or scum were in the hood" just without posting it?

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Deadline:

(expired on 2024-04-07 14:43:23)

We should be deciding now if we're no limming or if we're gonna try to kill someone here

[Kaguya Houraisan]

There’s a bigger thing that I can’t wrap my head around and it’s your handling of dai. I can’t imagine you were that sure of dai!town when this plan was being made if you were willing to omit or withhold info between the hoods. But things like not being put off by the yuuka/dai timing comes off like you were already in the town!dai camp.

So it doesn’t line up to me, I can’t get behind the thinking.

I fullclaimed to Dai and actively thought Dai was town and said as much in the Clownpiece hood, the only thing I omitted was the Clownpiece claim

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I fullclaimed to Dai and actively thought Dai was town and said as much in the Clownpiece hood, the only thing I omitted was the Clownpiece claim

Like I was actively ready to co-ordinate with Dai on her Hider claim to keep her alive before Clownpiece came back with their fullclaim and the plan

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Deadline:

(expired on 2024-04-07 14:43:23)

We should be deciding now if we're no limming or if we're gonna try to kill someone here

I'll make it simple.
Dai》》》》》》Yukka > No Lim

[Kaguya Houraisan]

The funny part is that even if Marisa votes maf I'm not trusting her here since she can afford to bus for the win with Koishi + Aya kills

V/LA until the 23rd, should still be able to post

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Keep in mind that Marisa is a quad-voter, so we absolutely need to be NOT using actual votes, and instead hypo-votes or hurt tags.

It's still 4 to lim, we can quickhammer her

VOTE: Marisa

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Setup Information

• Any abilities that may provide advantage or disadvantage during ELo/MELo will be disabled during those days (E.G. Day-Vigilante, Doublevote, etc)

[Kaguya Houraisan]

idk why we're even entertaining Marisa when she's claiming a block spellcard and quadvotered at 7p

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Cool lets quickhammer Marisa before she gets back and hammers

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I want to understand everything I did before I act.

If it can wait until tomorrow then let it wait, we're quickhammering right now

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Hey it says 4 votes to kill so am I just dead???

Votes got reset when Marisa quadvoted so no

[Kaguya Houraisan]

If you guys wanna popcorn, popcorn.

In general, rule of thumb here is to have Aya dictate the process, there was no real empirical doubt, but Koishi’s flip does settle the matter.

I don't think there's much to popcorn here. The claims here will just be:

• Kagerou Burglarized you
  
• You Self-Watched
  
• I got fish
  
• Reisen either slept or used the self-targetizer on me

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Kaguya did not stop to consider why Marisa made the error of not speed eliminating. They were a very real option of who Marisa would dictate the elimination to if they wanted. It was goal directed behavior.

I assumed Marisa was trying to force a Reisen quadvote into a Yuuka 1v1 at ELO and just messed up by not noticing she needs to revote after the updated votecount

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Kagerou Burglarized and Master Sparked N1, unless she had a spellcard that can be used with other spellcards all her N1 actions are accounted for

Scum Spellblocker is therefore in Yuuka/Reisen

Yuuka deviates from the "standard" by only having one spellcard, Reisen deviates from the "standard" by having an extra passive. This doesn't help me figure out who's the spellblocker other than by telling me one of them is lying about their role PM.

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I wanna look at if it makes sense for Dai to have been shot N2

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I wouldn't know, I just use my active and get fish

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Additional question Reissn, did you pop your ability for player to force them to target themselves?
Because you should have popped it given it was melo and no one claimed a killing role.

So I have 2 pieces of information, kind of. Kaguya targeted themselves last night. Doesn’t make them not!scum it just makes them not the one performing nightkills.

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I wanna look at if it makes sense for Dai to have been shot N2

Dai getting shot would validate the Yuuka scum + lying about spellcards/actives world, otherwise I think I want to vote Reisen here

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Okay can we agree that no townie should be voting on a wagon without me today?

Can't actually, if I think someone's scum and I can win a 1v1 I'll drop the first vote when I'm ready if you still haven't voted

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Kagerou what did Burglary give you from Yuuka?

[Kaguya Houraisan]

If Kagerou is town that means scum had to deal with

1. Aya redirect spellcard + Watcher active
   
2. Kaguya multi-doc spellcard
   
3. Sanae Doctor spellcard + Tracker Spellcard + Roleblocker Spellcard
   
4. Tenshi BP spellcard
   
5. Koishi BG active + double BP spellcard
   
6. Clownpiece non-consec Commuter Active

with just a single Spellblock. I don't think that makes much sense

[Kaguya Houraisan]

If Kagerou is scum that means scum had to deal with

1. Aya redirect spellcard + Watcher active
   
2. Kaguya multi-doc spellcard
   
3. Sanae Doctor spellcard + Tracker Spellcard + Roleblocker Spellcard
   
4. Tenshi BP spellcard
   
5. Koishi BG active + double BP spellcard
   
6. Clownpiece non-consec Commuter Active
   
7. Yuuka contageous Watcher/Reisen self-targetizer

with a single Spellblock and a scum Unstoppable Vig shot. This makes slightly more sense but it's still pretty bad

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Am I missing something that would make this setup playable for scum?

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I don't think Kagerou's the townie here and I kinda wanna vote there, anyone see anything I'm missing?

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Okay can we agree that no townie should be voting on a wagon without me today?

Can't actually, if I think someone's scum and I can win a 1v1 I'll drop the first vote when I'm ready if you still haven't voted

Yeah and then I will vote you.

You have no idea how much willpower it's taking to not just immediately drop a vote while quoting this post is here

[Kaguya Houraisan]

lame

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Sell me on why Kagerou is town

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Can I have a day to read everything? I dont even know if I think Kagerou is town or not.

My first step is figuring out why we don't always just kill Yuuka from the supposed 1v1 yesterday. Then I decide if I wanna off Reisen. Then I look at Kagerou's play. Then I examine you.

Yesterday wasn't a 1v1 because Yuuka already claimed to have used all her spellcards before Marisa flipped so the roleblock announcement wouldn't have triggered (This doesn't clear her, just makes it not a 1v1)

[Kaguya Houraisan]

If Kagerou is scum that means scum had to deal with

1. Aya redirect spellcard + Watcher active
   
2. Kaguya multi-doc spellcard
   
3. Sanae Doctor spellcard + Tracker Spellcard + Roleblocker Spellcard
   
4. Tenshi BP spellcard
   
5. Koishi BG active + double BP spellcard
   
6. Clownpiece non-consec Commuter Active
   
7. Yuuka contageous Watcher/Reisen self-targetizer

with a single Spellblock and a scum Unstoppable Vig shot. This makes slightly more sense but it's still pretty bad

I think the 4 Docs/BPs is legit unplayable for scum without the Jugg shot. Even with a Roleblocker Active there's just too much defense to go through

[Kaguya Houraisan]

HURT: Kagerou

pretend this is a vote tag

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I think the 4 Docs/BPs is legit unplayable for scum without the Jugg shot. Even with a Roleblocker Active there's just too much defense to go through

You can get around the Superstar passive making it obvious who the vig is by using the factional kill to make a reasonable looking vig shot while using Master Spark to get around Doc/BP, then just claiming the factional kill as the Master Spark shot and pretending the Master Spark shot was the factional kill

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I will be blatantly trying to convince Aya to vote the way I want

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Glad to see your WIM is intact.
I’m not even sure how I’m supposed to ask you or differentiate between: you came up with what would save you.

Not sure how you'd get anything meaningful from that. Aya's taking the bullet tonight so winning this game requires me to not get limmed.

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Well that was poorly worded.

I meant how you construed the Marisa Lim served you well. If someone took an opportunity handed to them, it was pretty much you.

No I mean think about it: if it's Reisen/Kagerou then you admitting to not be roleblocked immediately turns the game into a TvT 1v1. At that point looking like you're going slow is where you wanna be, especially if scum had multiple blocks and blocked the spellcard.

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Don’t get it.
Killing Marisa there due to player error when Marisa was either voting you or Reisen benefits you.

Either people are bloodthirsty and the lim goes through fast without scum intervention in which case being off wagon is where you want to be

or people aren't bloodthirsty in which case you can't insta-force a lim through and being on wagon just looks bad

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Either people are bloodthirsty and the lim goes through fast without scum intervention in which case being off wagon is where you want to be

or people aren't bloodthirsty in which case you can't insta-force a lim through and being on wagon just looks bad

Blood thirstiness is not the gradient of choice in terms of figuring out who is scum.
Yes, there is some level of maneuvering/niche occupying.

ok I'll break character for a second here.

In order to push through a speedlim there needs to be a culture?/party line?/general vibe? of anti-slowness. If there's not enough anti-slowness the speedlim doesn't go through, if there's enough anti-slowness the speedlim is inevitable. It's only in the inbetween that scum need to act to force the speedlim.

The threadstate wasn't in that inbetween state

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I'll go back to mechposting after this but readswise that threadstate is pretty much why Kagerou is near the bottom of my list there, especially cause she was advocating slowness to understand her actions but then never came back with the information from those actions

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I'll go back to mechposting after this but readswise that threadstate is pretty much why Kagerou is near the bottom of my list there, especially cause she was advocating slowness to understand her actions but then never came back with the information from those actions

Like threadstate was extremely bloodthirsty yesterday; the people who couldn't shift into that bloodthirsty mindset are scum. They basically had like an hour to sense the bloodthirst and shift gears while town were just naturally bloodthirsty and willing to express it

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I'm bored, someone post

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Going into N2:
Dai townreaders:

1. Yuuka
   
2. Koishi
   
3. Clownpiece
   
4. Kaguya
   
5. Sanae

Dai haters:

1. Aya

More people probably expressed Dai reads but I'm phoneposting so looking up reads is hard. Dai was def townread enough to be shot N2 if Clownpiece/Aya/Koishi were considered off limits.
Clownpiece claimed charged commuter so would externally be off limits. Koishi claimed to only be able to swap the bound target once so that'd be a pretty obvious spellcard soft; might have been read as off limits by having extra effects which would also make Aya off limits?

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Okay here is my base thought right now.

I never wanna kill Yuuka.

I always think Reisen is scum.

And I'm deciding wherher I want to murder Kaguya or Kagerou, or if I just cop out and murder the caught scum and let y'all decide what to do about that tomorrow.

lol

{Yuuka}
{Reisen}
{Kagerou}

is around where I'm at. Wanna go for the ego play and kill Kagerou here?

[Kaguya Houraisan]

We'll I would have to rule you out first

Whats the Kaguya scumcase/Kagerou towncase

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Actually on second thought just drop the full cases on both of us, centering the convo around disputing the Kaguya scumcase/Kagerou towncase without bringing up the Kaguya towncase/Kagerou scumcase makes the rhetoric harder

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Tragic, points for points is my strongest technique

How much do you think the game makes sense setup-wise if Kagerou is town? There's like 6+ ways for town to stop a kill with a mix of actives and spellcards and so far we've only seen a single spellblock from scum to counter that

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Second question: The Tenshi kill is "justifiable". Is it town justifiable or scum justifiable, especially compared to alternative kills

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Third question: How congruent is Kagerou's "wait I need to verify" attitude of yesterday with her "Yeah Yuuka is scum instavote" of today

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Did... did somebody redirect the scum NIGHT KILL onto larva, and the vig shot was just true on Tenshi? (which, terrible shot lmfao dude was obvtown as shit by end of day)

obvtown sounds like a bit much but ok maybe it wasn't the best shot i could've done

Right, keep forgetting about that

Kagerou can you elaborate on why you thought Tenshi was so scummy / worthy to be vigged?

Sure can !

Basically it's no secret that i already was scumreading Tenshi, for reasons that i could gather up if you want

her EoD also seemed extremely non-commital? Like, saying a lot of stuff and it's contrary, which was the spot where i expected scum to sit, especially considering she was apparently a bit exhausted at that time (me too) it just didn't fit in my eyes

I also like, didn't recall mentions of outstanding towniness about Tenshi from other people so it made me feel good about the shot at least shrinking down the PoE's size

And there also was a bit of hoping i would get the honors of actually having been correct on the wagon i tried to push through earlier in the game

This contrast specifically is illustrative of the scum justifiable-type shot. The mask slips in 3255 while there's a huge justification wall that they have later (Which if you have all of these justifications you'd presumably disagree that it's a bad shot)

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Lurking out day 2 with zero attempt to solve is also where I'd expect scum to be wrt Sanae

[Kaguya Houraisan]

my other spellcard was stardust reverie which would allow me to enter into a neighborhood and if it was temporary i would make it permanent, i used it on Aya and it did nothing

Oh right this too

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Does old!Kagerou's reaction of the Dai return and accuse look like a townie reaction or does it look like a "become deepwolf" reaction

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Specifically comparing the early positions of

VOTE: Kaguya Houraisan

I kinda like Kaguya's reaction to having her passive disabled, it shows as pretty uniformed imo

although this game kinda is a headache

i'm struggling to see how Kaguya makes this kill when she would be very much aware it strongly points to her

Kaguya : big WIFOM slot that makes my head hurt, mechanically scum but i very much like her tone and idk if that's something scum would be able to go for

To

It's simple: do you think stopping a scum kill on Aya/Koishi while in a hood with Clown would get me in the towncore? If yes then the numbers work out so that one person in the towncore survives til 3p ELO/4p MELO regardless of the results of Clownpiece's cop check

Not necessarily no?

The plan could also very well be for you to buy as much time as possible for the last mafia who is in a better position than you

Ok maybe this is just me being contrarian but i feel like scum explicitely shooting their own foot to mess with town is in everyone's thoughts enough for this plan to not stick you forever in the townsphere basically

it would give you most towncred than me / reisen / even marisa maybe i'll admit that much

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Those last two posts in particular have the heavy tone of "I'm talking to town that I need to prove wrong" type of scumposting where you accidentally treat the person you're talking to as town while points for pointsing

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Kaguya: if you’re town the scum team is exactly kagerou/Kaguya. Why are you going after Kagerou first?

Winning a 1v1 against Reisen in 3p is trivial, Kagerou not as much. You slaved your vote to Aya though so this gives me two chances with convincing Aya in 5p and then you in 3p

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Okay here is my base thought right now.

I never wanna kill Yuuka.

I always think Reisen is scum.

And I'm deciding wherher I want to murder Kaguya or Kagerou, or if I just cop out and murder the caught scum and let y'all decide what to do about that tomorrow.

lol

{Yuuka}
{Reisen}
{Kagerou}

is around where I'm at. Wanna go for the ego play and kill Kagerou here?

Points please. No this isn’t a scum brag thing or a wink thing. I just want levels of confidence.

Pure readswise it's like

1. Yuuka +35
   
2. Reisen -15 .. +5
   
3. Kagerou -60

[Kaguya Houraisan]

The justification of the shot is hard for me. I don’t have much experience with scum vigs.

The graph for telling vig's apart is:

• Hero shot/POE-ish but not really shot that hits scum
  - See: Aya
  
• Pure POE shot that hits scum
  - Scum can just miss and go "oops"
  
• Pure POE shot that hits town
  - Could go either way
  
• POE-ish but not really shot that hits town
  - Danger zone, scum really want to be here because it furthers their win condition the most while still being something they can get away with
  
• Hero shot that
  hits town
  - Depends on the gamestate, but very easy to read. Town make this kind of shot when the game is spiraling and they paranoia themselves into a terrible kill, scum make this kind of shot when it's obvious they're getting limmed anyways

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I can look into kagerou, don’t think you have to sell me that hard on kaguya. Even if you’re scum one of them is as well. I can do this.

Why am I scum

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Lurking out day 2 with zero attempt to solve is also where I'd expect scum to be wrt Sanae

Job stuff. Whether they’d have played this way as town while having job stuff as opposed to scum stuff is only a meta thing and I’d be hard pressed even for players I’m familiar with to bet right on that.

I mean they still had time to post a wall on why they shot Tenshi, there wasn't even an off-hand comment on who's scum or town d2

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Like compare it with Reisen where both were pretty much AFK, I at least know where she stood with

So at the moment I’m thinking, koishi/clown/aya/kagerou/yuuka/marisa town

And everyone else is in a spot where they’re either scum or it doesn’t really matter numbers wise. Idk how many slots that leaves on the outside looking in.

[Kaguya Houraisan]

This is we need to hit scum time, not we need to do what’s best for Kaguya time.

They're both the same thing unless you wanna call yourself scum here

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Like I'm willing to throw the solve down as Kagerou scum, Yuuka town, Reisen scum by POE; I've already shifted into "get other people to vote where I need them to" mode

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Well my votes slaved. So technically it does not matter. But I’d really appreciate a look at Reisen.

I already did, she's scum by POE cause normally I'd throw her in the "Not bad" pile but there's two scum here and not enough room for her to be town if you're also Town

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Is scum by PoE a thing in melo.
I guess low key I do that but to me the idea of PoE in melo is scary. And it just makes it hard to figure out if you’re afraid of interacting/casing them in case they mess up or they as the remaining town turn against you.

It's pretty easy to get away with PoE here, and until tomorrow happens I'm probably not gonna bother to sort Reisen harder:

1. Aya controls the lim today
   
2. Aya will not lim Yuuka over Reisen here
   
3. I think Kagerou is scum
   
4. If Yuuka is the townie I want Kagerou dead over Reisen here because gives me two shots to get people to go for a Kagerou lim over me
   
5. If Reisen is the townie then the only winning play is to get Aya to kill Kagerou and find Reisen in 3p once Aya is dead

[Kaguya Houraisan]

If Kagerou is the townie then I'm not finding her anyways this game, so I'm not gonna optimize for that world

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Is scum by PoE a thing in melo.
I guess low key I do that but to me the idea of PoE in melo is scary. And it just makes it hard to figure out if you’re afraid of interacting/casing them in case they mess up or they as the remaining town turn against you.

Like metaphor time: you gotta treat it like watching a chess engine sack their queen for a hidden checkmate in 17. It's not a "human" move, in most cases sacking your queen (not sorting Reisen in ELO) is suboptimal, but in this specific case it's more optimal for me specifically because I know I'm town.

It's very specifically a playstyle divergence. You've slaved your vote to Aya so the only thing you can really do is solve, I'm openly deciding to get Aya to vote in a way that maximizes town winrate and as a result this kind of stuff is gonna happen

[Kaguya Houraisan]

If Kagerou is the townie then I'm not finding her anyways this game, so I'm not gonna optimize for that world

Why not? You can be wrong, can’t you?

If Kagerou is town that means you're scum, I'm absolutely not gonna be able to reach that world even in 3p

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Another is that they’ve been near aggressively discrediting themselves. You come off as competent. They do not. It’s almost to the point of parody though. So it just gives me a head ache.
I don’t understand why scum them would a. Not read. B. Not talk to their partner first about basic facts of the game before taking action. C. Fake not reading the game. D. Completely lose the plot on basic melo play. They must realize that it is an awful idea to get an unexplained message and act on it in melo right?

Yet they didn’t make an excuse or say it was a reaction test. It’s just so, fucking weird.

It's a fake dumbtell, the feeling of parody is a direct result of that

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Is scum by PoE a thing in melo.
I guess low key I do that but to me the idea of PoE in melo is scary. And it just makes it hard to figure out if you’re afraid of interacting/casing them in case they mess up or they as the remaining town turn against you.

Like metaphor time: you gotta treat it like watching a chess engine sack their queen for a hidden checkmate in 17. It's not a "human" move, in most cases sacking your queen (not sorting Reisen in ELO) is suboptimal, but in this specific case it's more optimal for me specifically because I know I'm town.

It's very specifically a playstyle divergence. You've slaved your vote to Aya so the only thing you can really do is solve, I'm openly deciding to get Aya to vote in a way that maximizes town winrate and as a result this kind of stuff is gonna happen

The only difference to slave voting and not slave voting here is that I haven’t been threatening people not to vote before I do. Nor have I tried to get people to cross vote who I suspect or start getting them on that path.

That's where the divergence is though, if you're willing to force 1v1s like that at the correct time you can strongarm people into a town win

[Kaguya Houraisan]

The only reason I'm not actively forcing the Kagerou 1v1 here is because Aya'd instakill me here, strongarming her into voting Kagerou is the next best thing

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I don't like viewing this as a chess match here. There's deduction but we should not act like a chess match in melo/elo without solid information. Everyone should be considered.

It's not a chess match metaphor, it's a natural human move vs unnatural engine move metaphor

[Kaguya Houraisan]

- Anti-fishing town indicative

When the anti-fishing is anti-fishing their own role no not really

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I am checking for that world too tbh Yuuka.

Help me bus Kagerou

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Why are you looking at Kagerou first Reisen?

Cuz I could easily vote kaguya and not feel that bad about it. Also kinda think kagerou is just town. So I guess I’m looking for a reason to townread you via kagerou in a way? If I’m wrong that’s where I’m wrong so that’s where my focus is.

Why am I scum

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Oh I'm actually a viable lim today here.

Annoying cause in that case winning is only easy if Kagerou is town

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Wow this is actually really fucking annoying

If Kagerou is town I have to find her and that's probably not happening

If Reisen is town she has to find me and that's probably not happening

If Yuuka is town she needs to find the Reisen/Kagerou ties and that feels a lot iffier right now than it was earlier

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Kagerou can you case the Yuuka/Reisen world?

Yuuka why isn't Kagerou/Reisen a thing?

Reisen why am I scum?

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Dai had a mound of evidence against them (even though Dai was town). Why would scum!me shoot my main suspect with one elimination to go effectively ruining my credibility?

I townread Dai pretty heavily, what was even the case there? Actually probably doesn't matter compared to how likely Dai was to getting limmed. I'm phoneposting rn, what were the Dai stances before the shot?

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I'm also concerned by the lack of consideration of Marisa here minorly.

I don't get what this means

[Kaguya Houraisan]

The thing that's tricky about the Dai shot is that scum would know Marisa was a town Flandre. Frandre has the spellcards

• Forbidden Barrage "Catadioptric"
  
• Q.E.D. "Ripples of 495 Years"

which can both be flavored as an Aya style redirect given that those spellcards have her ricocheting shots off the edges of the screen to hit you. Given that she mentioned she hasn't used her shot yet and also mentioned wanting Aya to get shot there's a very real possibility scum thought she'd redirect an Aya/Koishi shot.

In that case the Dai kill would seem to be a standard "Dai is townread and Aya/Koishi are off limits, make the kill there" type shot

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Though this would still point to whoever Marisa scumread being scum, which would be Yuuka/Reisen?

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Dai had a mound of evidence against them (even though Dai was town). Why would scum!me shoot my main suspect with one elimination to go effectively ruining my credibility?

I townread Dai pretty heavily, what was even the case there? Actually probably doesn't matter compared to how likely Dai was to getting limmed. I'm phoneposting rn, what were the Dai stances before the shot?

Dai fmpov had none and all the dead suspected Dai so maybe I'm not the best judge. I didn't hear a single reason to townread Dai.

As in what were peoples stances on Dai, not the other way around

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Oh I'm actually a viable lim today here.

Annoying cause in that case winning is only easy if Kagerou is town

How is that easy? It’s the second hardest win for you by a town you country mile.

Winning requires me to be alive

[Kaguya Houraisan]

You’re not at risk. My shot is slaved. You’re only at risk if Aya thinks you’re scum, not if I do.

Today yes, tomorrow no

[Kaguya Houraisan]

The good news Kaguya is that at least for today no one has to find anyone. Townies follow my vote.

TOMORROW sucks more. Much more.

Barring a Kagerou lim all of these problems will still be a problem tomorrow

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Also trying not to alt slip is causing me so much stress. Everyone else is fine cause if they alt slip it just means they follow the confirmed townie today and then read the game overnight for 3p ELO or we have lost already.

If I alt slip the game becomes SO BAD.

Change your theme between accounts and if you have the computers only post on one computer per account

[Kaguya Houraisan]

idk why we're even entertaining Marisa when she's claiming a block spellcard and quadvotered at 7p

This does indeed bother me a lot. + your 180 read on Reisen because yes their theme interferes with people, but not like

that

you know?

Reisen needs to be scum if you’re town.
But that brings me back to, why’d they misread Reisen, like *that?* You know?

It's a skill issue coming from deciding to basically 180 my playstyle from mostly readsbased to mostly mechbased. Broadstrokes I was correct in predicting:

• The flavoring of Marisa's active
  
• That flavoring letting her disable abilities (though passives instead of spellcards)
  
• Reisen having spellcards that'd be flavorable as blocks

It's the Spellblock part that tripped me up because that's a pretty esoteric effect that looked like the kind of "You see the effect but get the mechanism wrong" that the Flan puzzle piece fit into

Your issue specifically here is that you're taking my aura of competence and assuming it comes from being good at the game in this playstyle instead of it being a separate charisma-based skill I picked up. My mech reads are in actuality pretty mid

[Kaguya Houraisan]

To be very specific, I thought the spellblock was being done by Marisa with "Destroyer in the Palm of One's Hand" which is the spellcard flavoring of her active

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Also for the record I still don't actually know what spellcard would let Reisen spellblock specifically

[Kaguya Houraisan]

If you look closely, what I was doing wasn't mechsolving (not that good at it) but flavor solving (touhou nerd) and it's where the disconnect is coming from you.

Like yes, in hindsight I should have realized that if the game needs Reisen to be a spellblocker GIF can fudge the flavor enough to force it through. I wasn't thinking in those terms though, I was thinking in the "ok she's Reisen/Flandre/etc., what design space would their flavoring let them strictly occupy" and came to the conclusion that a strict interpretation of Reisens flavoring wouldn't let her Spellblock while a strict interpretation of Flandres flavoring would let her perform something that'd look like a spellblock by destroying Sanae's spellcards and this short-circuited the question of "ok what if we fudge the flavoring a little"

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Shit, why didn’t you immediately suspect Reisen of trying to bring you down with them when they said they made you self-target?

I don't get how this'd be bringing me down?

In addition, you seemed to want to kill Reisen first at the beginning of the day then shifted to Kagerou, why?

This never happened? I've been pretty clear about wanting to kill Kagerou today

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Simple thing though...names can be different. See my passive.

I'm very specifically talking about flavor names otherwise I wouldn't be bringing up Flandre

[Kaguya Houraisan]

It associates you with them and they would know your abilities while there’s always a small chance of things backfiring if they use their ability on someone they don’t 100% know the abilities of.

I literally fullclaimed after a supposed red check (The Dai coming back thing), if you think people continue to fakeclaim there we play some very different games

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I wanna look at if it makes sense for Dai to have been shot N2

Dai getting shot would validate the Yuuka scum + lying about spellcards/actives world, otherwise I think I want to vote Reisen here

Going into N2:
Dai townreaders:

1. Yuuka
   
2. Koishi
   
3. Clownpiece
   
4. Kaguya
   
5. Sanae

Dai haters:

1. Aya

More people probably expressed Dai reads but I'm phoneposting so looking up reads is hard. Dai was def townread enough to be shot N2 if Clownpiece/Aya/Koishi were considered off limits.
Clownpiece claimed charged commuter so would externally be off limits. Koishi claimed to only be able to swap the bound target once so that'd be a pretty obvious spellcard soft; might have been read as off limits by having extra effects which would also make Aya off limits?

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Kaguya: if you’re town the scum team is exactly kagerou/Kaguya. Why are you going after Kagerou first?

Winning a 1v1 against Reisen in 3p is trivial, Kagerou not as much. You slaved your vote to Aya though so this gives me two chances with convincing Aya in 5p and then you in 3p

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Yeah, I read your later reasoning. But why wasn’t that your reasoning coming into the day rather than your reasoning after saying you wanted to vote Reisen? Why was there a change, had you just not thought about who you wanted to fight off yet?

Pretty much. It's a mindset shift of "Just vote for scum" to "How do I maximize the chances of both scum getting voted out this game"

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Like again, this is very much an alien way of playing for me; I sometimes forget the theme I had going for this game and post naturally instead

[Kaguya Houraisan]

It’s fucking unacceptable to me that “Reisen’s iso is fine, but not as fine as yours so they’re scum” in melo.

I’m sorry. I know it’s obnoxious. But it’s not something I can easily move past.

It's literally the case though? Like idk what to tell you, that's about as much as I can get from Reisen's ISO

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Like the only real way that read's getting refined is with an extended livechat and I'm V/LA and she's never really around so I don't have high hopes of that happening

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Not to mention it’s weird that they’re probably the biggest actual touhou fan here and they’ve barely touched on the flavor.

Where's the touhou fan part

[Kaguya Houraisan]

They’re probably a touhou fan.
That’s all I got.

I didn't pick up on that from her ISO so I'd prefer the posts you saw there

[Kaguya Houraisan]

*speechless*
Oh come on. They have 230 posts and a “tee hee I thought I was dead” comment.

Most of those posts were D1 where town was completely disfunctional, D2 onwards it's a ghosttown activity-wise

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Honestly, at the current pace winning a 1v1 with kagerou would also be trivial.

I’m trying to say this and I want to say this again. I really, really, really want you to case Reisen and tell me why they’re scum or hell, I’ll take a revelation and Reisen is town and I’m scum with Kagerou over this.

I think EoD yesterday does this. It was a rushed lim that no one thought through to protect Riesen. The analysis was supposedly if Marisa voted, she'd control the lim. If we had the opportunity to think, we'd just leash her not to use it. She suspected Riesen.

If Marisa had suspected town, then letting her use it is not a problem as she dies in elo if wrong. If Marisa had suspected scum, then she couldn't dare vote.

If Marisa was scum, why randomly trade herself?

Scum definitely made that play.

Which is odd for Kagerou, a player who has allegedly viewed things through a strategic elimination not to pick up the proper play from both sides there.

The problem with this line of thinking is that I spearheaded the speedlim so that'd imply I'm scum

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Honestly, at the current pace winning a 1v1 with kagerou would also be trivial.

Sitting at Kaguya = Reisen > Kagerou.


I have to figure this out. /:

[Kaguya Houraisan]

*speechless*
Oh come on. They have 230 posts and a “tee hee I thought I was dead” comment.

Most of those posts were D1 where town was completely disfunctional, D2 onwards it's a ghosttown activity-wise

Yes. But why does a dysfunctional town make it harder to sort them from those early posts?

Because if scum are sitting at 0 risk the entire day 1 then they don't need to

do anything

. They can just naturally post in the same way town are posting and I'm not capable of reading alignment off of that

[Kaguya Houraisan]

If scum Marisa did push a lim through, she died tomorrow unless she bussed. All quadvotes are disabled in melo/elo (mod quoted it somewhere) so scum couldn't have won the game there.

If she thought she'd be at risk of getting limmed that day then quadvoting and trading like that to let her teammate play for 3p would be optimal compared to not doing that, getting limmed, and her partner having to play 5p solo

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Honestly, at the current pace winning a 1v1 with kagerou would also be trivial.

Sitting at Kaguya = Reisen > Kagerou.


I have to figure this out. /:

It feels like you're arguing from a position that's assigned to you rather than analyzing.

Riesen's off limits. Why?
We must be in a 1 v 1. Why?
Yuuka feels like an afterthought. Why?


Fmpov, I know one of you must be scum. There's a remote chance you both are (unlikely). There's no harm in looking at every setup.

All of those being suboptimal would imply the team is exactly Yuuka/Reisen, this is a hard world for me to accept

[Kaguya Houraisan]

btw Kagerou what did you get from Burglary

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I had zero expectation of a speedlim.

I wanted to understand myself before even having an opinion.

You weren't expecting a speedlim when both conftown decided Marisa was scum and people were like "speedlim Marisa before she comes back and quadvotes someone"?

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Yuuka this isn’t working I’m just townreading kagerou more.

Reisen why am I scum?

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I had issue with you playing positionally before and it hasn’t changed now that you’re openly admitting to playing positionally.

Why is being openly positional scum indicative

[Kaguya Houraisan]

What was the point you were trying to make by asking me that question?
What did you think I'd say?

It was commentary on what kaguya!scums win route looks like.

If I'm scum in your world my win route is really easy: call it a Kagerou/Reisen game, appease Aya, and let her kill you here

[Kaguya Houraisan]

For the record, I am going along with Aya decides the lim. I'm not sure it's the best.

Aya picks one of us to vote first instead. That's a 50% chance to hit scum. Then, even if wrong, a town would have a 2/3 chance of hitting scum at random.

Once the 1 v 1 is declared, then Aya picks the lim with input.

I'm down with this

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Kaguya, I’m free tomorrow, I saw you wanted some real time interaction and I’ll meet you halfway if you need a specific time window.

I'm on vacation so I don't really have any uninterrupted mafia time outside of early mornings is the problem

[Kaguya Houraisan]

2. If you forget you notify each visitor is scum, then you see guilty, vote guilty.

What did burglary give you from Yuuka

[Kaguya Houraisan]

It associates you with them and they would know your abilities while there’s always a small chance of things backfiring if they use their ability on someone they don’t 100% know the abilities of.

I literally fullclaimed after a supposed red check (The Dai coming back thing), if you think people continue to fakeclaim there we play some very different games

To add to this, I also pushed both Reisen and Marisa on mech based on following the Spellcard/Spellcard/Active/Passive/Hood Passive format so the number of abilities I have can also be inferred

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Clearly Yuuka's actually a Sunflower Fairy, we got her

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I want to understand everything I did before I act.

What happened to this btw

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Wrote another post, deleted post.
Not game advancing

Are You three done solving(Kagerou, Kaguya, Reisen?).

Mostly done, only thing left would be livechatting Reisen but I don't want to hold up the day for days waiting for both of us to be online at the same time

[Kaguya Houraisan]

My most reliable scumhunting tool is normally random.org, not sure how much that'd help you

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Can someone remind me who had Clownpiece's QT on N2?

Me

[Kaguya Houraisan]

N1: Sing + Strongwill spellcard (3 fish)
N2: Sing (4 fish) + Doc spellcard (Aya/Koishi, 0 fish), Neighborized by Clownpiece until the end of Day 3, Passives disabled by Marisa until the end of Night 3 (Stealthy and Daiyousei Hood)
N3: Sing (1 fish)
N4: Sing (2 fish)

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I'm Wakasagihime

• [Spellcard/Night] - Effects targetting me resolve as if Strongwilled, get 3 fish total when combined with singing
  
• [Spellcard/Night] - Doctor a single person per two fish
  
• [Active/Night] - Sing to get 1 fish (Resolves before my spellcards)
  
• [Passive] - Invisible to action investigatives
  
• [Passive] - In a hood with Daiyousei

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I need to reread Yuuka and Kaguya and decide if I'm wrong on Yuuka.

Here is a question: if Kaguya was in CP neighbourhood N2 and had a doctor why didn't Kaguya protect CP?

Because Clownpiece claimed charged commuter and you'd be the only person who'd know they lied

[Kaguya Houraisan]

But they claimed cop n2 to you, and weren't you the one who told me that commute and cop can't be done together? Or was that someone else.

I don't get where you're going with this, me knowing clownpiece isn't commuting isn't gonna change who I'm doccing there

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Like me knowing CP was commuting doesn't change my target cause I'm town

[Kaguya Houraisan]

You knew CP woule cop, which if you are more diligent than I am asking a mod if commute + cop works is relatively easy. So you could easily have known to protect CP. More important than not realizing to protect CP you are in a semi unique position of being able to know CP might be vulnerable for a shot.

The only person who'd know to shoot CP was you and maybe Dai, hedging against that world would mean I can't fully block the kill on Aya/Koishi and it'd be a 50/50 instead

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Dai being on CP avoids the CP kill if she's scum since I'd be able to out her if CP died while she lived.

[Kaguya Houraisan]

You knew CP woule cop, which if you are more diligent than I am asking a mod if commute + cop works is relatively easy. So you could easily have known to protect CP. More important than not realizing to protect CP you are in a semi unique position of being able to know CP might be vulnerable for a shot.

Also I think you misread: CP openly claimed non-consec commuter who commuted N1 in the hood

[Kaguya Houraisan]

We both decided that me doccing Aya + Koishi while Dai does her thing on CP was optimal while fulling understanding CP was vulnerable

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Hang on lemme pull out the chart:

1. If Kaguya is scum she doesn't shoot Clownpiece because not shooting gets her into the towncore
   
2. If Daiyousei is scum and shoots Clownpiece she either goes down with him from the redirect or doesn't and gets limmed the next day
   
3. If Aya is scum and shoots Clownpiece then game goes to odds by Dai and she gets outed by me

Those are the only people who'd know Clownpiece was commuting (except for people who visited N1 but we both forgot about that), everyone other scumteam would be shooting in Aya/Koishi there

[Kaguya Houraisan]

At this point Kaguya, you should be more focused on breaking my chain of logic about Kagerou town if you disagree with me there because what I'm seeing from Larvae's ISO indicates Kagerou town.

I'll be around later but you're falling for the same trap I normally do where you make a partner read and locktown off of it then ignore the shit they do later that should be ringing alarm bells (I've done this

a lot

). Going past the partner read: Should Kagerou be locktowned off the totality of her play or not?

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I'll add that I'm especially vulnerable to this trap against good scum players if that helps

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I'll add that I'm especially vulnerable to this trap against good scum players if that helps

As in the good scum player flips and I misclear their scummy partner

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Reisen is a slot that has been weirdly written off for reasons i have yet to identify and they are the only player in this whole game that hasn't had one post that made me think "this comes from town"

Like I can dig up anti-Reisen partner posts from Larva too I'm just not putting much stock in anything Larva's posted because they can't both be town

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Trying to open the mod ISO crashes my phone from the videos in every VC but iirc Larva had an "on while safe, off when unsafe" pattern to her Kagerou votes. I don't think she intended for any person still here to die d1.

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I admit that I am open to listening to your arguments about how Larvae approaches Kagerou as scum on day 1 there with full intent to bus and how they fake their reaction to the vig claim in addition to how the totality of their play makes them scum.

Totality wise though (from memory):
Day 2 active enough to answer questions about her shot reasoning but does has 0 solving or takes
Day 4/Day 5 the Marisa hesitation into Yuuka vote
Day 3 the specific arguments used to push me but that one probably doesn't help you

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Okay. My new reads are Kagerou town Reisen scum.

If I still trust my gut on Yuuka town that makes Kaguya scum.

I am far more confident in Reisen scum than Kaguya scum but I worry if I kill Reisen today Kagerou will die tomorrow. I am utterly convinced Kagerou is town. Beyond all doubt.

You can simply tell me to kill Kaguya and I'll do that next day phase.
With a Reisen scum flip it becomes closer for Kaguya in my mind.

The only way I'm town from your perspective is if both Reisen and Kagerou are scum so not sure what you mean by this

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I’m saying I associate Reisen scum more closely with you than Kagerou scum.

So if Reisen flips scum then I think you’re more likely to be scum.

So if Kagerou flips scum it's Reisen/Kagerou but if Reisen flips scum it's Reisen/Kaguya?

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Yep!

That feels wrong but I don't have time to figure out why

[Kaguya Houraisan]

mmm maybe not if it's just saying the designated townie ordering is

1. Kagerou
   
2. Kaguya
   
3. Reisen

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I tried to tell you that it would be a problem if you did not try to read Reisen this day phase.

Find me an hour Reisen is online and I'll find you a Reisen read

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Find me an hour Reisen is online and I'll find you a Reisen read

This is annoyingly well played if this is intentional btw

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I tried to tell you that it would be a problem if you did not try to read Reisen this day phase.

So yeah, if they flip scum. You’re going to have to live with that choice.

If not, congrats on your win! You played well.

Independent of any partner solves (probably not the right words) like what's happening here, what's your readslist look like right now

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Also Aya ignoring the Larva stuff what's your readslist look like

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Aya’s pointing out those Larvae reads tipped the balance some.

So what's the readslist look like

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Reisen. Scum.

Kaguya = Kagerou.

Yep!

That feels wrong but I don't have time to figure out why

Gonna try to put this into words. If you think Reisen is always scum here and that Reisen flipping scum tips the scales towards me flipping scum then how is it possible for Kagerou and I to be in the same tier here

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I'll be around later but you're falling for the same trap I normally do where you make a partner read and locktown off of it then ignore the shit they do later that should be ringing alarm bells (I've done this

a lot

).

I feel like I'm making a similar mistake with Yuuka's D3 livechatting and I kinda wanna reassess

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Like your play towards the second half of the phase feels positional (If Kagerou flips then you get to kill Reisen with me, if Reisen flips you get to kill me with Kagerou) and I wanna check if I'm going crazy or not

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Yeah, you do you.

Reisen. Scum.

Kaguya = Kagerou.

Yep!

That feels wrong but I don't have time to figure out why

Gonna try to put this into words. If you think Reisen is always scum here and that Reisen flipping scum tips the scales towards me flipping scum then how is it possible for Kagerou and I to be in the same tier here

Can you answer this?

[Kaguya Houraisan]

You gunna engage the substance of those associative posts or only barely touch the edge of the wings on them?

Properly engaging would require me to be able to check VCs and that'd have to wait until I'm back from V/LA on the 23rd

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Wait, what.

No. If Reisen flips town I don’t get to kill either of you. Game’s over.

I'm looking at the game from a bus perspective, you're positioned in a way that lets you endgame regardless of what happens

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Obviously if we flip the other townie here that also works out for scum you

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Yes, because I don’t wanna die and lose the game which 100% happens today or tomorrow if I die.

You’ve used this perspective yourself. I didn’t challenge you much on it because I understood the perspective.

There's a difference though: the stuff I'm doing still had a consistent solve of Yuuka Town/Kagerou scum/Reisen POE scum. Your solve changes on flips in such a way that's framed to be an algo solve that also simultaneously has you positioned to vote someones biggest scumread at all times. That's where the positional feeling is coming from

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Huh?

I've been pretty clear that my solve is Kagerou/Reisen, my open positionalness is based on maximizing the likelyhood that this solve goes through

You don't have a set in stone townie, your positionalness is based on maximizing the chances that Yuuka doesn't go through

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Huh?

I've been pretty clear that my solve is Kagerou/Reisen, my open positionalness is based on maximizing the likelyhood that this solve goes through

You don't have a set in stone townie, your positionalness is based on maximizing the chances that Yuuka doesn't go through

The first recognises that both townies have to not die to win, the second does not

[Kaguya Houraisan]

The only alignment I know for sure is my own, so it's the safest bet.
It goes me
1. Me.
2. Empirical town.
3. Wibbly-wobbly people in a wibbly-wobbly world.

Great, sadly 2 townies does not a POE make here so you still need to solve for the third.

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I want you to take a serious stance. Who is the townie here?

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Could people stop trying to force me to make decisions on hard stuff.

No. I don't want an algo solve; I want you to take a serious position in ELO, even if you change your mind later

[Kaguya Houraisan]

You'll notice that if I had made up my mind, I wouldn't have changed my mind.
From Dai scum to dai town.
From you scum, to you town, to you scum, to you town, to you scum.
From kagerou town to kagerou scum to kagerou town to kagerou scum to kagerou weird.
From Reisen town, to Reisen scum.

It's weird.

What is your current GTH townie

[Kaguya Houraisan]

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Reisen. Scum.

Kaguya = Kagerou.

RIGHT NOW, RIGHT THIS SECOND IN THIS SINGLE MOMENT IN TIME,
I THINK, KAGUYA MUST BE THE TOWN BECAUSE UNLIKE REISEN, THEY IMMEDIATELY GET THE OMGUS MICROSCOPE OUT WHEN THEIR POSITION GETS WORSE BASED ON WHAT SOMEONE SAYS ABOUT THEM TO SEE IF IT'S SCUM DOING IT.

I HATE KAGEROU'S POSITIONING SO MUCH THIS AND LAST DAY PHASE THAT IT ALMOST FORCES ME TO EXCLUDE ALL OTHER CONSIDERATIONS EVEN AS I REALIZE SOMETHING REALLY STRANGE IS GOING ON THERE.

Did your position change between these two posts? If yes who was your GTH townie then

[Kaguya Houraisan]

You have a cookie in one hand and a closed fist in the other. It's skinner box basics.

idk what this means