NY 170: Georgetown II (Game Over)

[emeraldemon]

Confirm

[emeraldemon]

Hi team. I am very new, I have exactly one finished game (here if you're curious). I will try to keep up though.

I have an inkling that it's multiball.

Can this happen in a vanilla game? The signup post just says "no PRs", so I guess it is still possible, as well as maybe serial killer or something similar?

And

VOTE: Acidic_TACO

because you are at the top of the page.

[emeraldemon]

Re: bulba, gotta start somewhere I guess.

re: slandaar, honestly I was asking more of a rules question. There is a list of things not allowed in normal games, but I don't really know if "vanilla" carries strict rules about what it can and can't have. Looking more carefully at the first post it does say "As this is a vanilla game these are the only roles:", which makes me think it can't be multiball or have a SK.

[emeraldemon]

You're new but you know what multiball is?

I know how to search a wiki

So do you think bulba's town or scum for that vote.

If I had to pick one I'd say town, but it's probably just null.

Huntress: Is there any way we could get clarification on this? As to what the definition of "mountainous" is, and does such a game type forbid multiple mafia teams?

The wiki entry for "Mountainous" is the only definition I know. It simply refers to the lack of power roles.

I would say that 16:3 is far too out of balance to be approved as a Large Normal, so it's highly likely we're looking at 13:3:3.

That said, speculation on it is useless until Day Two.

If huntress had said "this setup cannot have multiball" that would have been very useful, so I think it was worth it to ask. As is, her response tells me that we can't rule it out, which is all I wanted to know.

[emeraldemon]

I don't read that as calling for a NL, Garmr

The main point was he was using that to sneak a opportunistic vote under with out explaining himself. What do you think of his voting so far?


So everyone join the Aegor wagon or if you think I'm scum vote me let get things moving.

I think your vote is on acidic taco.

[emeraldemon]

#170 - this is actually the only post from emogirl I don't like. The rest of it is null.
#188 - garmr: "if one is scum the other is not of the same alignment." I dunno, are you sure?
#193 - Not sure if I like this vote either... or the waffly townread on me.
#200 - Ok Maestro is obvtown now
#204 - garmr again, you vote emogirl but you want to go back to arguing with aegor?

So... 170 aside, I don't really see anything scum in emogirl's posts. I don't think she's intentionally confusing, I think she's just confused. Not feeling great about garmr though.

vote: Garmr

@garmr I'd like to hear more about your emogirl vote please. Do you agree with bulba and maestro? Why do you think they are town?

pre-edit: i like you, ohgodmylife. Can we be friends?

[emeraldemon]

VOTE: Garmr

[emeraldemon]

Ok Maestro is obvtown now

I'm kidding. That NOPE did make me laugh out loud though

[emeraldemon]

#170 - this is actually the only post from emogirl I don't like. The rest of it is null.

What don't you like about it?

I doubt the vote (133) was just for drama, especially sense she's been serious about scumreading you ever since. Hard to say what to call it exactly, but maybe revisionist history / not owning up to intent. If she wants to vote you she should vote without qualifying it, in my opinion.

But that alone doesn't make her scum necessarily.

[emeraldemon]

Sorry for disappearing, I will be good and post now.

First thought, does Maestro actually have wagon summoning powers? It's worked twice so far, on emogirl and chevre. Is he being townread or does every just agree with his reads? Is there some meta / group history that I wouldn't know about?

So the emogirl wagon went like this:
maestro, NS, bulba, garmr, brian skies, Albert, maenara, chevre, kaboom

I don't really see why Chevre is the scummiest vote on this wagon. Given that people have said most scummy things about the votes from albert on, maybe it's something about joining the wagon late? It does seem like maybe the unvote from Chevre is scummy, but I'd love to know why no one thinks e.g. Brian Skies was scummy. Or NS for that matter.

Will actually read posts sometime this weekend.

Meanwhile, don't mind me slipping my vote onto the largest wagon.

VOTE: Emogirl

@garmr
Since my vote is on you maybe I get to pick on you specifically. Is it just the unvote & explanation that is scummy from chevre? You were on the emogirl wagon also, why did you move? Do you still think emogirl is scum?

[emeraldemon]

How has it worked twice? He was a big push behind the start of the emo but he was the 4th vote on a momentum wagon of Cherve. What do you think about him being on both wagons? As for your point on Brain Skies, I could see him as scum. His catch up posts aren't really bringing anything to the table and he might as well just jump in the deep in rather than spend forever on out of date catch posts to make it look like he is doing some work. He seems to be asking a lot of empty questions rather than scum hunting.

Offtopic, your pic and ohgodmylife's look too similar, I keep confusing you two.

In my memory Maestro called out Chevre's vote right away, but it was actually Maenara's vote he called out (239), so I was wrong about the second wagon.

Maestro feels kinda town to me, at least I feel like I can understand the intention behind his posts and his votes. This game is really complicated to follow, but I have a slight townread on you and ohgodmylife, and a slight scumread on Chevre, although that's probably 75% sheeping. Garmr ignored my questions to him, so clearly my vote is ineffective where it sits.

[emeraldemon]

@zdenek

I won't fake a confidence I don't have, it will just sound fake and scummy. I like what you are saying about goodfather though.
Regarding my last game, nothing like having your first game be a scum win, right? But (1) This game is way more complicated, and (2) I stupidly decided to take on 4 games simultaneously.
I'm going to push harder in here, but I just think if you are using my meta to judge you should take that into account.

@sotty7

The avatars are fine, I like the xkcd, it's just weird to skim through at first.
So early game it seemed like you had a strongish scumread on maenara, now that zdenek replaced in does that affect your read on that slot?

The wall ending at 589 was not convincing to me at all, and I actually feel better about Chevre scum than I did before.
VOTE: Chevre

604: OGML "Chevre is town not for suddenly trying hard (that really should have happened without needing a major wagon to give you motivation) but because of the swarm of people already trying to lay blame for a chevre mislynch at the feet of ABR et. al. Somebody who *knows* he's town is feeding that fire."
611: Zdenek "Bulbazak and Yessiree?"

Tebow calls out Nobody Special for voting Chevre in 465, then doesn't like Albert's vote (485). Yessire thinks the Chevre wagon is bad in general, argues with Tebow about it. There's something wierd about Tebow simultaneously pushing for Chevre lynch and being suspicious of people getting on the wagon. Bulbazak also doesn't like Albert's vote (494).

I don't see anyone trying to lay blame for a Chevre mislynch, the only thing that feels a bit off is The Fonz / Tebow.

@The Fonz

Are you pushing for a Chevre lynch? Are you trying to make sure you only get the right kind of votes?

@bulbazak

What is your read on Chevre? Are you against the wagon?

There's a lot of mush in the middle of this list, but at least I have a better idea of who I'm suspicious of now.

TOWN
Sotty7
Maestro
Bulbazak
OhGodMyLife
emogirl123
Aegor
Zdenek [Maenara]
The Fonz [Tebow]
yessiree [WBOCampfire1104]
Garmr
Acidic_TACO
Slandaar
Albert B. Rampage
Nobody Special
kabooooom
The Goodfather
Brian Skies
Chevre
SCUM

@Chevre

Slandaar says your vote is just "lets lynch a lurker", do you agree? Do you have more to it than that?

I want to get invested in this game, so anyone who's online please ask me questions.

[emeraldemon]

Do explain, which part of 589 do you find not convincing?

This part:

Slandaar (9, 12, 24) - It's not really because of the multiball discussion, obvioiusly; I have no problem with that, it just feels outside of that he's done relatively nothing. I'm interested to see what his "investigations" are.

Vote: Slandaar

It's hard to feel like the huge recap was relevent if this is the conclusion. I get that you're townreading Chevre, which makes you scumread me for voting him, but what makes you so sure he's not just buddying you? How many of those reads (scattered through lots and lots of text) really surprised you or made you go "huh, I didn't notice that"? Because if it didn't, maybe it's just a recap, and not scumhunting.

[emeraldemon]

Let me put it a simpler way: which part of 589 WAS convincing?

[emeraldemon]

Whether or not

I

find Chevre's wall convincing does not directly affect my read on him due to the following reason.

I did the walls because I was in danger of being lynched and I wanted town to have as much of my perspective as possible. It isn't really pro-town, or at least not pleasant to do those things, but it was the only way to get my full feeling out there and I tried to make it as easy as possible with the indices.

However, I find it odd that you reinforced your scumread on him just because you find that one little part at the end off. What is your read on slandaar?

(1) So Chevre doesn't have to be convincing because there is a disclaimer that it's a brain dump. Fair enough, but the brain dump felt like it could have been borrowed from someone else's brain (again, maybe yours?). I get the biggest town feel when I read someone's post and think "oh shit, you're right!". When I read and think "where have I heard this before?" I don't get that town vibe.

(2) It's not "the one little part at the end". The vote is the most important part of the post. You thought my post was horribad, but you focused in on the vote, why? In some ways the vote is the only thing that matters. He posted three huge walls of catch-up (which you are not calling convincing) and then at the end I still felt like I got "oh yeah I guess I should vote someone".

I don't want to overstate my case here, I'm not convinced I've caught scum. In all honesty I considered voting Brian instead but I think there's a good chance he'll get replaced so I'm waiting on that.

I will talk about that and slandaar in the next post so I can pick up Aegor's question.

[emeraldemon]

A lot of these are in a "mildly scummy for not contributing" pile.

Brian Skies

- probably going to get replaced, but the vote on emogirl without reading rubs me the wrong way, and the catchup posts are lots of semi-pointless comments. I specifically don't like "Considering the jumps from NS, Albert, and me, you sir have earned yourself a small townread." about the emogirl wagon. Handing out townreads is kinda scummy to me, especially saying "oh you noticed my vote is bad, please take this townread as appeasement".

The Goodfather

- lurking, and voting b/c of a bad rickroll, and fluffy posts like 502 and 520. No effort. Swap out after pressure is a bit suspicious.

kabooooom

- Could just be a confused newb like me, but could be trying to lurk the day out. I'm in another game with kabooom, which I can't talk about I guess.

Nobody Special

- This is closer to null, but self-described coasting and riding easy wagons, the only time he stood up was to randomly vote acidic taco. The townblock stuff is probably a joke, but I still don't really like it.

Albert B. Rampage

- another easy hop on the emogirl wagon and again on the chevre wagon. I also don't like his "too confident" reason for voting emogirl, sounds forced. nullscum.

Slandaar

- honestly similar to ABR and NS, lurking / coasting. He doesn't get on any wagons, just leaves his vote on goodfather without any poking. But with this I can't really call it scum, feels closer to null. That's really just gut, hard to distinguish scumminess and laziness at this stage.

I have to keep in mind that my own posting has been pretty lazy and wishy-washy up to now, so some of these are probably not scum, just busy and overwhelmed like I was. But if scum wants to hide in a big no-PR game, this is a good way to do it.

[emeraldemon]

Let's just take a quick snap.

Tebow calls out Nobody Special for voting Chevre in 465, then doesn't like Albert's vote (485). Yessire thinks the Chevre wagon is bad in general, argues with Tebow about it. There's something wierd about Tebow simultaneously pushing for Chevre lynch and being suspicious of people getting on the wagon. Bulbazak also doesn't like Albert's vote (494).

I can go into details about how your question are useless if you want. But it makes you look like a hypocrite, no?

Sure, when you clip out my conclusion and questions, it looks like I'm not contributing. But why would you do that?

I am no amazing scumhunter, but
(1) I don't think OGML's post about setting up for a Chevre mislynch was well founded, and I wanted to explain why
(2) the dissonance between Tebow's push for Chevre and his suspicion of the votes on the wagon seemed, well, dissonant, and I wanted to try to find out more.

If you think those thoughts are not my own and are sheeping someone else, point out where they've been said already, maybe I missed something.

Believe it or not I'm actually open to suggestions for better scumhunting, so if my questions are useless I'd like to know why. The only problem is if you are actually scum and leading me astray intentionally...

[emeraldemon]

?

So Albert, you say "emo's wagon shouldn't be so difficult", but didn't she go up to L-3 almost immediately? What were you hoping for?

[emeraldemon]

So are your scumreads related at all to that wagon failing? slandaar was never on any counterwagon (and as far as I know never even gave a read on emogirl at all). I did townread emogirl, but I don't think that's why you're voting me, is it?

[emeraldemon]

@sotty
I posted a list b/c I thought it would be good to show my reads. Is that bad?

@the fonz
Well you didn't seem to like the votes from Nobody Special or Albert B Rampage on the Chevre wagon. I'm wondering why, if you really do want the wagon to build.

[emeraldemon]

Slandaar, if Kaboom is obviously scum why are you still voting the goodfather (now inHimshallibe)?

[emeraldemon]

Hey Brian,

Don't mind me I am just lurking.

This guy is pure evil.

Maestro really feels like scum to me. Chevre not so much.

Loot/Maestro seriously looks like a team when you realise how quick Maestro was to dismiss Loot as a VI but not EG.

Hmm. This post might be town.

Where is the Slandaar vote coming from?

[emeraldemon]

Well time is short and it looks like it's either gonna be slandaar or brian skies. I could see either as scum honestly but I think I will

VOTE: Brian Skies

I'm pretty sure 101 was sarcasm, and the "important investigations" was probably just BSing, not trying to fake a breadcrum. So... that doesn't leave much.

[emeraldemon]

When someone jumps on a wagon, even one you like, at a point and with and explanation (or lack thereof) that seems like scum piling on a mislynch, you reconsider the wagon. I pressed Albert for a bit, got a response I felt was town, and this then made me comfortable rejoining the wagon.

Thanks, this makes sense.

On Brian Skies, his scumhunting is better than he's getting credit for. His case against Slandaar, when made clearly, is not just that Slandaar has been voting for easy targets, but that he's voting for

all

the easy targets. Normally, a town player will read some of the poor players as scum, more so than the good players, but will have one or two where they feel the case is overblown and the player is trying, but bad. If you suspect all the 'low hanging fruit' then it seems, as Brian said, that you're not trying to sort through the pile. Brian's 'ten page lurk' was Thursday-Monday which seems more likely to be a 'real life intervened' break than a deliberate lurk.

(1) I'm not sure where you're getting the "all the easy targets" thing. Slandaar's vote trajectory has been goodfather -> brian -> me. I could see my wagon being "easy target" (although I'm probably biased), brian maybe but probably not. And he wasn't on the emogirl wagon or the Chevre wagon.

(2) Brian's argument seemed based pretty heavily around two fake towntells, neither of which looked like faking a towntell to me.

Slandaar is trying to make the 'I'm a townie who's not that into it' case, which is a scum thing to say more often than random, but not a slamdunk. I really, really don't like his reaction to coming under fire, which feels like 'strawman your accuser as much as possible.'

This part I agree with.

How-fuckin-ever, Chevre's not done any scumhunting since the wagon on him died. His 623 feels very reactive (and his response to why he did something he admits he doesn't think is pro-town is poor) while #715 just feels like posting for the sake of posting. I'd like people to reconsider this wagon.

Emerald is... unhhhh. Tough to read. Not today's lynch, I don't think.

I am still with you on the Chevre lynch also. And hey, ask me something.

[emeraldemon]

Well time is short and it looks like it's either gonna be slandaar or brian skies. I could see either as scum honestly but I think I will

VOTE: Brian Skies

I'm pretty sure 101 was sarcasm, and the "important investigations" was probably just BSing, not trying to fake a breadcrum. So... that doesn't leave much.

This is horrible.

I'll need some time to digest the back and forth between Brain and Slandaar

UNVOTE:

Not sure what I'm supposed to do with this. Do you want me to guess why you think I'm scummy?

[emeraldemon]

"Looks like it's either A and B getting lynched today, I think either of them might be scum, so I'll hop on one of them."

This is scummy because

1) This effectively shakes off any accountability you have in the case of a townflip since your wording deliberately implies you think that they are the only lynch candidates for today.
2) Lining up for future lynches in the case of a townflip
3) Not attempting to refine your reads on the person you are voting, complacent to just see a lynch go through, whether or not the lynch will benefit town

1) I did think they were the only lynch candidates for today. It was before the replace out and deadline extension; we had about 2 days (which we have now again think).
2) Not really sure what you mean.
3) I feel like my questions have been productive for me at least

So let me ask you, who do you think are the possible lynch candidates for today?

[emeraldemon]

Where is the Slandaar vote coming from?

He likes to throw fake towntells in the thread.

There's also some prejudice involved.

OK so I am anti-town for talking with you and Fonz instead of staying on Brian. Fair enough.

Hey Brian, I find your fake towntells unconvincing. Is Slandaar still scum?

[emeraldemon]

If you had reasons (i.e. found his fake towntells unconvincing), why didn't you specify that in the same post where you voted him?

I did!

Well time is short and it looks like it's either gonna be slandaar or brian skies. I could see either as scum honestly but I think I will

VOTE: Brian Skies

I'm pretty sure 101 was sarcasm, and the "important investigations" was probably just BSing, not trying to fake a breadcrum. So... that doesn't leave much.

101 was sarcasm = fake towntell #1. "important investigations" = fake towntell #2. Maybe it wasn't clear?

[emeraldemon]

Sorry team, I'm reading now, will post soon.

[emeraldemon]

@Chevre
Re: 1023
At the end you say sotty7 is the scummiest, "I never really found Sotty7's vote reasoning for Slandaar very in-depth, and then he switches off the wagon." But if you're looking for good vote reasons, why not vote Zekrom, who just writes "for reasons given" (904)?

Can you clarify for me why sotty was the scummiest vote on that wagon?

Also, you could call ABR a lot of things, but I don't think "wishy-washy" is one of them.

[emeraldemon]

Bulbazak and Zekrom currently gut level scums.

vote: Bulbazak

Where is this coming from?

[emeraldemon]

More examples of answering with questions to divert.

This doesn't make sense, in the post you quoted Thor explains why Aegor's vote on Zekrom seems suspicious to him, so what is he diverting?

I was one of the ones on the Brian wagon, but Thor's posts have seemed pretty town to me.

[emeraldemon]

Zdenek, what did you think of 1023 / 1024?

[emeraldemon]

@Zdenek

Zdenek, what did you think of 1023 / 1024?

Never got an answer to this. Early in the day you said you thought Chevre could be a good lynch, what do you think now?

[emeraldemon]

I have a hard time seeing scum Aegor defending Brian Skyes the way he did at the end of day one.

I was asking about Chevre?

[emeraldemon]

Questions for everyone!

@inHimshallibe

What is your read on Tony PR [emogirl]? Do you disagree with Bulba's case?

@Zdenek

What do you think about what inHimshallibe said in 979, that scum ABR wouldn't push hard on a town wagon day 1?

@Tony PF

You say you liked Chevre's analysis in 1118, but I thought Chevre concluded that the NK didn't point to ABR. Which part are you agreeing with?

@Nobody Special

Why are you voting ABR? Also, you voted Chevre yesterday, what made you decide he's town?

@Chevre

What is your read on Bulba? Did his arguments sway you in voting Tony PR [emogirl]?

OK I lied, the rest of you are boring to me and get no questions.

[emeraldemon]

Questions for everyone!

@Nobody Special

Why are you voting ABR? Also, you voted Chevre yesterday, what made you decide he's town?

I am voting ABR because he's scum.

I don't recall saying that I thought Chevre was town, I'm just not voting him at the moment because, sadly, I have but one vote.

I do not understand how a discussion of my meta vs. ABR's meta is in any way useful.

That's not really what the discussion is about.

What is your read on Chevre?

Ineffectual town.

Ineffectual town is still town yes?

[emeraldemon]

Like, does anyone have any reason whatsoever for not reading Nobody Special as scum? Is it not considered scummy any more to emerge from a lurk to put a vote on a non-contributor, and in other sundry ways just say nothing of value on day one? Today, he's parked his vote on the biggest wagon with no reason. Also his point about why Tony chose to read ABR in ISO had already been answered in thread when he said it - Tony ISO'd Albert because he was the player that was 'flavor of the week' ie the one everyone was talking about.

Agree.

VOTE: Nobody Special

Also I'd still like to know why NS changed his read on Chevre to town and then apparently forgot about it.

And still waiting on this one:

@Zdenek

What do you think about what inHimshallibe said in 979, that scum ABR wouldn't push hard on a town wagon day 1 because it burns towncred?

[emeraldemon]

Yeah, I don't really know how this works, but I'd rather Zekrom be modkilled or force-replaced than lynched if possible.

For what it's worth, he wasn't so blatantly anti-town in Newbie 1464 http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=36006 . He was scum that game.

[emeraldemon]

The other consideration is NS. Now, I'll admit, I'd feel better about this if we had gotten a wagon worth "anything at all" on him first. But, he was still the biggest wagon, and as soon as a counter wagon starts up his immediate reaction is to light defend Aegor. Now, I'm faaar too lazy right now to check, but could someone go back into his ISO and see if he had already expressed pro-town thoughts about Aegor? If the answer is "no" then I would very much like to turn the Aegor wagon around and just speed lynch NS for lulz. If the answer is "yes" ...eh...at that point it becomes muddier for me, and I probably advocate lynching Aegor because then NS' reaction looks a bit more townish.

Like Zdenek said, NS has never mentioned Aegor prior to that post (I assume we're talking about 1355).

I think NS is a good lynch, but I don't really follow why NS defending Aegor makes NS scummier? Are you implying NS and Aegor are scum buddies?

[emeraldemon]

I'm worried about Fonz and Sotty because they are both capable players who have decided to be rather pathetic in this game.

I disagree with this, especially about The Fonz. He's probably my #1 townread right now.

Also is it a coincidence that you're worried by players who are worried about you? Is this like a non-voting OMGUS?

[emeraldemon]

@Zdenek
The early argument between Bulba and Fonz wasn't a strong tell, but it had all the vibes of town vs. town to me.
592, 855, and 985 all sound like someone who is reading closely for clues and trying to sort players.
Especially his answer to my question in 855 felt very town to me. He wasn't just pushing a wagon, he wanted to know where players were coming from.

So why are you worried?

[emeraldemon]

@garmr
What is your read on nobody special?

[emeraldemon]

I dunno, maybe you want revenge on Brian and it is clouding your reads.

[emeraldemon]

Vote: Nobody Special

Just FYI this was L-1 on Nobody Special unless I miscounted.

[emeraldemon]

@Huntress
Is the clock still running?

[emeraldemon]

Time is freeing up for me, let's kick this game's ass!

VOTE: Aegor

@kaboom
The mod still hasn't officially called 1468 over so I wouldn't talk about that game yet.

@Aegor
It's one thing to go for the biggest wagon when there's three days left. We have more than a week left. I refuse to believe we can't do better than a policy lynch. Yet your favorite wagons have been Zekrom, Kaboom, ABR. What are your reads? You didn't like Chevre's vote Day 1, have you changed your mind?

TOWN
Thor665
Sotty7
Garmr
Bulbazak
inHimshallibe
HighShroomish
Rainbowdash
Zdenek
Albert B Rampage
Kaboom
Matias
Nero Cain
Chevre
Aegor
SCUM

I'm not convinced on the ABR lynch. At least Thor and Zdenek are posting reasons, but I feel like way too many people just see ABR as a lurker slot with votes on. If you want to policy lynch a lurker, you should start a wagon on Matias.

[emeraldemon]

I was voting kab earlier in the game. ABR is at L-1. Forgive me for thinking that he is the easiest lynch at this point. Nothing would give me greater pleasure than lynching kab tomorrow.

Are you looking for the easiest lynch or a lynch on scum?

Both? Either?

Bulba, vote Aegor, this is scummier than Highshroomish by a mile.

[emeraldemon]

It's a bad stance for Aegor to take, but I'm thinking that it's genuine and that there's no reason for him to take it as scum.

Scum has a good motivation to keep lynching lurkers, especially town ones. The longer scum can keep town lynching based on activity level, the longer scum can stay alive just by posting semi-frequently.

[emeraldemon]

Exactly that. There is the issue.

Most of the ABR wagon seems to be going "oh yeah but kab wagon is fine" but have been avoiding it

. Never even mentioning him until I press the issue and the rest of the game is lurking not even talking about the wagon. The fact that I am probably fighting the wagon the most while saying "yeah its an okay lynch" it feels wrong. Good for information still yes, but wrong.

I agree completely. But all those posts are now part of this game's record, and their authors can be held accountable if they refuse to vote kab tomorrow.

This also, trying to set up a second policy lynch tomorrow? Weren't you talking about lynching Garmr tomorrow?

[emeraldemon]

Yet you were defending The Fonz yesterday - calling him your strongest town read, while he was pushing the lurker NS lynch.

In my mind NS wasn't just a lurker lynch. Obviously he was town and my read was wrong, but two things in particular bugged me: hopping blindly on the ABR wagon at the start of day 2 (957), and calling Chevre town (1035) but then backing off when I pressed him about it (1203). Also there were a few posts that just felt like fake-contributing, like 1074 and 1174.

[emeraldemon]

Aegor, why do you want to lynch ABR?

[emeraldemon]

HighShroomish (1) - Bulbazak
Aegor (1) - emeraldemon
inHimshallibe (1) - Zdenek
Bulbazak (1) - Nero Cain

Not voting (3) - kabooooom, Garmr, Matias

A listing of people whose votes are currently doing jack and spit.
It's a depressingly large list of people.
Let's work on this and make it a less shameful list.

We have six days left. It isn't necessary for everyone to be on the biggest two wagons. But more importantly, you should sheep me and vote Aegor.

KILL ABR KILL ABR KILL ABR KILL ABR KILL ABR

VOTEVOTEVOTEVOTEVOTEVOTEVOTEVOTEVOTEVOTEVOTE

I don't even know what to say about this. I will work out an Aegor case in another post.

[emeraldemon]

OK, we all know that Aegor's favorite thing is policy lynching lurkers (e.g. 963, 1303, 1308, 1362), and his second favorite thing is hopping on the largest wagon (431, 666, 963, 1377, 1440, 1570, 1618). His style is mostly voting without posting any reason (277, 431, 1253, 1337, 1440), and the one time anyone pushed him he self-voted (1343). By my count he has either voted for or said he would lynch Garmr, ABR, Kaboom, Chevre, Slandaar, Matias, inHim, Zekrom, Thor, NS, and Zdenek.

But wait, you say. While that noise surely doesn't help town, can you really call it scum motivated? In a sea of anti-town players, what makes Aegor stand out from the crowd? I argue that Aegor is not just anti-town; he is scummy.

1) It's not just that he wants to lynch lurkers. He insists that there is no better use of our days and our lynches. He has said repeatedly that there is no useful information in the game so far (1351, 1378). He doesn't try to scumhunt; he doesn't want us scumhunting.

He wants to draw attention away from actual debate

and make it seem like "OMG guys lurkers everywhere" is useful content.

2)

The only time he's been under any kind of pressure, he panicked

, self-voted, and grossly exaggerated the amount of danger he was in. Check out the classic "Just promise when I flip town that you'll lynch Zekrom and kaboom and maybe Thor" (1345) even though he was nowhere near lynch, wasn't even really a wagon. It's really worth rereading the Thor/Aegor argument, especially Thor's 1366 and 1373.

3)

The only wagon he hasn't hopped on was emogirl's.

Literally every other wagon, he joined, typically with comments like (471) "Can we please lynch Chevre already? I daycop investigated him. He is scum." or "KILL ABR KILL ABR KILL ABR KILL ABR KILL ABR" (1709). This isn't just near the deadline, to avoid a no-lynch. This is anytime a wagon looked like it was gaining momentum. A town player worries about whether or not they are making the right lynch. A scum player knows exactly who needs lynching, and scum needs to lynch almost everyone eventually. Who do we know who wants almost every player in the game lynched?

One of these things in isolation might be frustrated/misguided town, but the three of them together make Aegor my strongest scumread.

[emeraldemon]

What's your ABR read?

I think he's scummy, but not my first pick. I still think there's a chance he's town and just got overwhelmed. Does him replacing out tell anything to you either way? Do you think he'd be more likely to replace out as scum (or town)?

[emeraldemon]

That is such a misrepresentation. I am not opposed to scumhunting. It is just that before this case, Bulba is the only freakin' player who has actually attempted to construct a case or probe anyone in any significant way. This game suffers from massive lethargy, and I do not have the energy to resurrect it by myself. It is ridiculous to claim that I am suppressing scumhunting when in fact I am just proposing a rational procedure given a game with no scumhunting in it.

You are proposing a procedure where we give up on scumhunting and spend (2? 3? how many?) more days lynching lurkers. But if you were just town with a bad idea, that wouldn't bother me. I think if you were town you would actually care about where the wagons were going, and not join all of them indiscriminately. I think if you were town you would ask people questions, try to sort us, point out things that seemed funny or strange to you.

Since I do actually want to sort you, let me ask you some questions about the scumhunting that you say doesn't exist:

1) Nero Cain thinks he found a scumslip from Bulbazak 1687. Do you agree? What's your read on Nero [Tony PF [emogirl]]?

2) You wanted Zekrom's blood, but he's been replaced by Rainbowdash. Do you still want that slot lynched? What do you think of Rainbowdash's vote?

3) ABR is replacing out, if he is replaced by an active player will that still be your #1 lynch priority?

This isn't even looking back very far, this is just stuff from the last few pages. Are you still going to claim there's no content in this game?

[emeraldemon]

3 days left.

The thing about Aegor is that whatever case people have raised against him based on what he's been doing fits well with the opinions that he's been expressing. While I don't doubt that he could fake it as scum, it makes all of it quite null.

OK, so you're saying his actions are consistent with his opinions, which is null. But both his actions and his opinions are scummy. Scum has good reason to do the things he's been doing and town doesn't. Lamenting that this game is a black hole is a great excuse never to contribute. Policy lynches are a great way to delay and avoid actual scumhunting. All of his opinions are geared towards justifying his antitown actions, so of course they are consistent.

Sotty

, you asked why I thought Aegor was scum, what do you think now?

Chevre

, what is your read on Aegor?

DisCode

, have you read anything? Deadline is close and the game is long, maybe just read the most recent 10 pages or so to see what we are doing now.

I don't want to give up on this just yet, but deadline is close so I want to have a plan B. Someone on the kaboom wagon explain to me why that's preferable to ABR?

[emeraldemon]

VOTE: Albert B. Rampage

L-2.

0) save Huntress the trouble of finding a replacement
1) Spending another day arguing about ABR just sounds like a waste
2) I will sheep Thor, and I will avoid the wagon Aegor is pushing

Aegor, let's talk some more tomorrow. This day won't end in no-lynch, just like none of the others did, and the lynch won't be because of your hysterics. If you are town please think about this.

[emeraldemon]

You'd have to be kind of a masochist to replace into ABR's slot anyway.

[emeraldemon]

Sorry to prod dodge, this weekend is a bit crazy for me, I will get in here hopefully tomorrow, but definitely by Monday.

[emeraldemon]

OK, I am caught up, but it's late and I will have to work on this more tomorrow. A few quick things:

0) I'm actually really stoked that we got a scum kill, we finally have something with traction instead of groping in the dark. I need to reread, but my feeling is that this flip means Thor is town. When he came in with the meta case yesterday, the ABR wagon was waning. I don't know Thor's meta, but that would be a really aggressive bus. At some point I need to spend time rechecking the ABR wagon(s) for clues.

1) I just finished a game with scum kaboom: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=36651 . That game had some serious problems, but it might be worth checking out. kaboom has lurked a lot more in this game, but a newbie is easier than a large game like this.

2) I don't really see the NK helping us at all, the flip would have made Zdenek close to conftown anyway, so it's an obvious scum choice.

3) Aegor is trying a slightly different tactic today, posting cases and arguing pretty hard, mostly with bulba. Nothing to change my read though, and 1924 really rubs me the wrong way. "Lynch me now or never speak of day 2 again" is a pretty crappy thing to ask from town. In this case I wouldn't mind obliging.

VOTE: Aegor

[emeraldemon]

@Sotty

I'm backing off on Aegor. I think a lot of people are voting him because they are annoyed with his "sissy fit". Yes I still very much dislike his wagon position at the end of the day but he seems to have two sides. One being the annoying anti town I am always right BS that sadly, a few players have in this site meta. But he is also pushing good cases today that some people like emeraldemon just aren't acknowledging. The more he makes those kinds of posts the better, but Rainbow is right, the behavior it's antitown which doesn't equal scummy. Unless of course anyone has any real hard meta against him, then speak now or forever hold your peace.

I don't think Aegor is just anti-town (see 1712). I think he is scum. I'd like to know which cases from him you like. Aegor's vote pattern today has been Bulb, RBD, Chevre, RBD, Bulb, kaboom, Bulb, kaboom. He also says he's scumreading inhimshallibe and highshroomish. He throws out these scumreads like candy on Halloween, but there hasn't really been much pressure that I've seen. There was a little on Bulba (1970, 1996), but then he backed off and is now voting kaboom again, for reasons I can't fathom (it's another vote without any explanation). I will say it seems kinda town to me that he'd townread the people leading a wagon against him (Thor and myself).

Bulbazak is a tricky one for me, some of his stuff I really like, but I do think his reads have been strangely unwavering, his top two scumreads still seem to be emogirl and garmr [discode], which hasn't changed since page 6 or something. That kind of stickiness can be a pretty strong scumtell.

@Aegor
Surely you know that all 6 of the people you're scumreading can't be scum, we'd have lost already. I don't understand why you moved your vote back to kaboom. I think it's strange that you're denying pushing kaboom's wagon yesterday against ABR, when you clearly did (1832). You also haven't really said anything about why kaboom is a bigger lynch priority than Bulba or RBD or Chevre or any of your other scumreads.

Sotty thinks you're town, and I think sotty's town, so maybe you can change my mind here, but you're not acting town to me.

[emeraldemon]

I want Rainbow dead. I also do not want to hear any more crap about my involvement on the wagons yesterday, so either lynch me today or STFU about it henceforth.

His attitude of being entitled to a town read if not lynched.

I think you're implying that this is an OK attitude for town to have, but it absolutely is not. Just because you haven't been lynched on any particular day or succession of days doesn't mean you deserve any town read. We've all survived this far, and some of us are scum. I

strongly

dislike what's implied here: Aegor is saying that later on in the game, he doesn't want his early play held against him. I refuse. If you and I make it to LyLo together, I will look at your Day 1 play, and you'd better do the same to me.

[emeraldemon]

OK, so what makes him town?

[emeraldemon]

@Thor

And if we still haven't caught any scum and we mislynch tomorrow, if there are six, which seems highly likely for a big game, the games over.

Zdenek thought there was no way scum would claim to guess six scum in this game. It's worth noting that HighShroomish actually argues against this being a towntell (1664, 1668).

Also note the case against ABR in 1727.

[emeraldemon]

Blar this thread moves so fast

That's not the only thing. There is a reason why Chevre was placed at L-1 on Day 1 which was lost.

What was that reason, I haven't read Day 1.

emogirl never answered this, but I will because Chevre is still on my scum list and I'm curious what people think.

Chevre's Day 1 vote on emogirl 311 made some people uncofortable. When Chevre started getting pressure he unvoted 387 in a way that made even more people (myself included) think scum. The biggest pusher on that wagon was probably Fonz[=Tebow], see 334 and 491.

[emeraldemon]

ABR's scumflip strongly suggests Bulbascum. I'll go into more detail when I don't have to clean before friends get here for the weekend.

inHim, I don't think you ever explained this. How does ABR's scumflip implicate Bulba?

I think this is about where I'm at right now:

TOWN
Thor655
Sotty7
HighShroomish
Discode
inHimshallibe
emogirl
Bulbazak
Rainbowdash
kabooom
Chevre
Aegor
SCUM

[emeraldemon]

Hey sorry, I hope this isn't too late to pick up my prod. Real life got unexpectedly busy but I am still here. Reading now, if anyone is online please come ask me something.

Thor what is your read on bulba?

[emeraldemon]

Also who are we lynching today?

[emeraldemon]

Ok, let's see.

VOTE: Rainbowdash

[emeraldemon]

vote: bulbazak

L-1

[emeraldemon]

Awesome. This makes me more paranoid about Thor though.

[emeraldemon]

In Mewbie 1468 http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=36651

I was in a game with kaboom where he was scum and he won. I would describe his play in that game as erratic, but coherent. He made actually pretty detailed cases, check out this post for example:

So, here's why i think drags a scum!

he is lurking! Trying to blend! Going with the flow when he posts! Etc.

he didn't post anything useful at all untill post #105. And the reason he posted this post was because i told him to post twice (#97 & #103). And justkelly told him to post (#98). But that's not it! His post 105 is totally useless! He says he thinks Kelly is scum for SOME REASON! He doesn't know what reason, but he thinks Kelly is scum! (example of blending!)
then he says IV is slight scum for proposing RQS!! Seriously?! (another example of blending!)
then you say Jason is town read because he is actively scum hunting! When i asked you why did you thought so, you said he was creating pressure and pushing people, but you don't say in which posts he does that! And now you think he didn't scum hunted at all! I mean before he declared that he was town doctor!

lastly you say, u m town. But you are not quite sure why am i town??!! Who does that sentence even makes any sense??!!

so basically what you are doing is lurking and then trying to blend in!


then in post 114 you just oppose me and pretty much repeat the same stuff!

then you have no discussion related posts!

then your posts from 185-291 are you trying very hard to prove Kelly scum! (though i agree with you!)
however what really is weird is your analysis of post 242!!!

how alongtimeago got the best town read in your analysis???!!!!!!!!!!!
but in your recent analysis of post 325 he is slight scum because of lurking! But he has been lurking even before your analysis of 242 so how did he made it to top of the list? His behaviour hasn't changed at all!
its also interesting how Jason was one of your town reads and how easily you were convinced that he was scum!
also you say i m scum read in post #242 and #325 however in post number 242 you gave no reason for your scum read on me. And in post #325 you just said what alongtimeago and ED already mentioned! If you actually felt that way you would have mentioned in your post 242 as well!

inshort most probably, you are one of the scums!

There hasn't been anything remotely like that from kaboom this game. Is that because he's lazier as town? Like thor said, bad play isn't a towntell. So I guess I would say his play seems different in this game than 1468, but it doesn't seem townier. Kaboom is still a slight scumread for me.

[emeraldemon]

Also I misread kaboom in that game, I thought he was town, so maybe that makes me wary / paranoid about him this game.

[emeraldemon]

Aegor, how do you think is scum?

[emeraldemon]

*who

[emeraldemon]

@Thor
I had a townread on garmr day 1, and the bulba flip makes garmr's fights with bulba feel more town. Check out 1409. This kinda makes me think Thesp [Discode [garmr]] is town.

[emeraldemon]

VOTE: Petroleum Jelly

[emeraldemon]

kaboom, in our last game together you actually tried to build cases on people. If you are town, do you really want a reputation for only trying to hunt when you are scum?

[emeraldemon]

I am strongly in favor of lynching someone today. I understand that no-lynch is numerically better in the situation where votes and lynches are random. So let's not make votes randomly. Someone with more time than me could figure out the confidence you need to have in your scumreads to make lynching better than no-lynching in this situation, but I don't think it would be very high, since according to the table no-lynching is only about 11% better in the random case.

And there's another good reason our situation is different from the table: the shootings won't be random either. This quote from PJ:

If you believe the game can be figured out by process of elimination, then No Lynching poses zero harm to that plan.

The most straightforward example: suppose you are convinced 6 players are Town ("Town pool") and the scum are therefore necessarily within the 4 remaining players ("elimination pool"), which is exactly how many lynches we have. No Lynching can only increase the odds of winning because it increases the odds scum will kill one of the 4 remaining players in the "elimination" pool.

seems very incorrect to me, because I would put the odds of scum killing someone in the elimination pool very near to zero, and the odds of scum killing someone in the town pool near 100%. Let's say hypothetically that kaboom is town. Is he gonna get NK'd tonight? Scum has used a fairly straightforward and successful NK strategy so far: kill helpful and townread players. I can't imagine they'd stop now.

Of course, the real question, and the more difficult one: does all this mean PJ is scum?

[emeraldemon]

@sotty
When Chevre came under pressure early day 1 for his vote, he chickened out and unvoted in a way I thought was suspicious (387, see my post 2145).
Chevre's early game had multiple big walls that felt like IioA to me (e.g. 1118).
Bulba actively fought against Chevre being lynched (1995, 2128, 2157), even though there wasn't much of a wagon on him at that time.
emogirl's NK may not mean anything, but it may mean PJ/Chevre was nervous.
PJ's first post on joining the game and rereading was to FoS people on Chevre's [his] first wagon (2204). That one may mean nothing, but it bugs me.
I disagree with PJ's no-kill logic and think it might be scum looking to stall for night.

I intentionally ended my post with a question because I wanted people to answer it. So sotty, what is your read on PJ/Chevre?

[emeraldemon]

Sotty are you going to vote someone?

PJ, I have to agree with sotty, what are your reads?

[emeraldemon]

What's your read on Thesp?

I'm townreading thesp, but I've fallen behind in this game and I only skimmed the back-and-forth between him and thor.

I'm gonna try to reread today at least and probably move stuff around, but this is where I'm at now:

TOWN
sotty7
thesp
Thor
Nixon in a party hat
highshroomish
rainbowdash
aegor
kaboom
pj
SCUM

The biggest changes from yesterday are probably my thor paranoia and PJ scumread.

[emeraldemon]

Kaboom, why do you think Aegor is town?

[emeraldemon]

For that matter how is he only voting him in two VCs, the entire game?

Garmr was voting bulba in about 6 VCs, from 1177 to 1466. For most of that time the only other vote on bulba was inHim. This was day 2, when the big fight was Nobody Special vs. ABR. So my point really had nothing to do with Bulba interacting with garmr, I'm saying Garmr (and somewhat inHim) were trying unsuccessfully to get a bulb wagon going when that was not a popular opinion to have. Also in the end Garmr gets so pissed off at bulba that he replaces out. Is that really how scum buddies would interact?

[emeraldemon]

The most interesting series of posts actually begins arounds Post #495, where OhGodMyLife "dislikes" Bulbazak asking Albert B. Rampage to describe why Chevre is scummy "in his own words." Bulbazak responds in Post #505, and there is a continued discussion between OhGodMyLife and Albert B. Rampage. I find it hard to think this discussion indicates an OhGodMyLife-Bulbazak-Albert B. Rampage scumteam.

Hrrrm. I actually like this find, although I don't think it's impossible for OGML to jump in as scum here.

PJ, I can understand wanting to reread everything, but you're not even through day 1 yet. At the rate you're going you definitely won't finish rereading before deadline, much less finish in time to help choose a lynch.

[emeraldemon]

Also how confident are we that there are only 3 scum? 4 is also possible yes?

[emeraldemon]

Rainbowdash, why did you stop pushing Thor? You seemed pretty adamant yesterday.

Petroleumjelly, am I right that your reads look something like:
town - sotty, inhim, highshroomish, thesp
null? - aegor, kaboom, emeraldemon, thor
scum - rbd
??

Also, what do you think about what I said in 2432?

[emeraldemon]

As scum, I have to think I would replace in confidently, assess the situation (which would involve "hmm, my only remaining partner is about to be lynched, how should I play this?"), formulate a plan, and take immediate action and then justify it later. It is beyond easy to pick a few weak players, or find likely counterwagons, and argue against them for a lynch continually; it is equally easy to call for blood against a partner who is a lost cause.

The reason my play has appeared lackluster is that I did not come into the game trying to fix my image, or trying to look Town, or trying to achieve any one particular goal. This is because I was instead trying to use my time to honestly and thoughtfully read the game while giving my reads and trying to decide who is scum.

Maybe this is off topic, but I have to ask, is this really the meta you want to set for yourself? As I understand it you're saying that if you seem confident and directed on a replace in, you're probably scum? I will say that the large number of "hard to read" players in your list does you no favors in my eyes, but I'm guessing you don't actually want "can't sort the players" to be a towntell for you.

That said, this has been interesting and I don't want a hammer quite yet, so

VOTE: Rainbowdash

Rainbowdash, I can find plenty of instances of you defending ABR or directing away from his wagon (1788, 1803, 1808, 1843). And yet as I read your case against Thor (2114,2151) it seems largely about Thor not pushing ABR or directing away from his wagon. What's up?


Thor, what do you think about Aegor lately?

[emeraldemon]

Wait, I'm thinking the same thing as kaboom? No I'm really paranoid...

[emeraldemon]

Might as well pick up where we left off.

VOTE: Rainbowdash

[emeraldemon]

Sotty,

Rainbowdash, I can find plenty of instances of you defending ABR or directing away from his wagon (1788, 1803, 1808, 1843). And yet as I read your case against Thor (2114,2151) it seems largely about Thor not pushing ABR or directing away from his wagon. What's up?

This is all I've written so far. Honestly a lot of it is about PoE, I have townreads on you and Thesp, and I'm leaning town on HighShroomish, Thor, and Aegor. That leaves RBD and Kaboom.

I am still semi-paranoid about Thor (inHim did say "It's down to PJ and Thor for me" late yesterday -- 2585) and Aegor, so my main goals for today are to sort them, Kaboom and RBD as best I can. I'm happy to start with RBD.

[emeraldemon]

Lets hope she is scum.

This could just be kaboom being kaboom, but I don't like it on a gut level. Feels like scum.

[emeraldemon]

Maestro (replaced by Rainbow) puts pressure on bulb right when he moves his vote to emo that felt very genuine to me. This was part of the reason I had a town read on this slot. Rainbow voters or pushers what do you think of Maestro's posts in this slot?

It is true that Maestro questions Bulba's logic, but he ultimately sides with bulba and helps him wagon emogirl: 156, 221. Not sure if there's anything to 238. Some of it seems sorta town, nothing strong though.

[emeraldemon]

ABP don't leave me hangin' I was looking forward to playing with you

Aegor, what is your read on Rainbowdash?

[emeraldemon]

Oops that quote is unrelated, forgot I hit the multiquote button while reading.

[emeraldemon]

Wow, totally didn't expect the quick lynch, I'm glad it was successful. Thanks to everyone, I do think town did a good job this game, but I also think it was hard for scum once the first one was caught. I'm wondering now how 15/4 would play out.

In a game without any PRs it's easy to feel like everything is pointless WIFOM, and it was hard for me to keep motivated with such a high post count to go through. The high number of replace-outs makes me think I wasn't the only one (and the replaces make the game harder to read, which makes it worse...). Fortunately we had some hard-working town to keep things going, I especially liked the play from The Fonz, Zdenek, Sotty and Thor this game. Thanks for carrying me to victory

[emeraldemon]

I actually tend to go shorter when I'm really trying to make a point...maybe that doesn't work?

I actually really prefer shorter posts to walls, especially quote walls. For the most part I'd rather someone just paraphrase / reference, like "In post 666 you said I'm satan, but clearly...." rather than quote it, which takes more space and time to read. As a bonus paraphrasing shows someone how you understood their post, which may bring to light any miscommunication.

Omit needless words!