Touhou UPick 4 - [Aborted]

[zMuffinMan]

hello

i think there's a very decent chance noddy is scum in this game. he hasn't been scum in any of the touhou upicks this game and therefore has a very high chance of drawing scum this game. it would not surprise me if sakura hana is scum with him for the same reason

#gamblersaxiom

[zMuffinMan]

o wait nm sakura was scum last time. she's prob town this time. kagami could be scum though. she hasn't drawn scum yet i think

[zMuffinMan]

okidoke so just read the rules

i'm going to assume this is 12:4 nightless with 10 days to lynch the 4 scum

PS: i think i'm basically an innocent child because if i were scum, the game would literally already be over

[zMuffinMan]

i'll claim my day spellcard just so it's out there - i have an unlimited use gladiator shot (it refreshes if my target gets lynched, ergo unlimited)

this and the permanent -4 are two of the reasons my role would be completely broken as scum, and a third one will be apparent at some point in this day phase, probably

[zMuffinMan]

actually there's not a lot of point in being subtle

reason #3:

Vote: notscience

[zMuffinMan]

no

[zMuffinMan]

i'm not voting notscience because i think he's scum (although he very well could be, #gamblersaxiom always right etc)

i'm voting him so you see a shiny number 5 next to his name in the next votecount

[zMuffinMan]

Unvote

i'll probably be refraining from voting for the most part, just fyi

wagons are more interesting when i'm not literally half the votes on them

(also, i imagine like half the player list has vote manipulation mechanics - in one form or another - just due to the nature of this particular game)

(i imagine at least two scum players have weird voting mechanics, so i wouldn't write anyone off as town for weird voting mechanics)

(except me, i'm town)

[zMuffinMan]

it was pretty obvious zmuffin wasn't being serious here

please don't speak for me

[zMuffinMan]

it was pretty obvious zmuffin wasn't being serious here

please don't speak for me

gomen, gomen. any scum reads so far?

yes

[zMuffinMan]

btw, i'm sorry to hear about the arrest, ns. i hope the big house is treating you well

[zMuffinMan]

We haven't seen the gladiator in action

well duh, but why do you think i would make that up?

[zMuffinMan]

I just don't agree with this particular declaration that muffin's role is quantifiably more likely town than not from what we've seen.

it is objectively more likely town than not, actually. i don't really think that's debatable. whether or not people choose to think it's possible i'm scum with this role is another matter

tbh, i personally wouldn't write me off as town, but i also wouldn't be silly enough to argue that it's not more likely a town role

[zMuffinMan]

And if he's scum I'm assuming he's lying about *some* aspect of his role

it is good practice not to lie about things that are easily verifiable when scum!

[zMuffinMan]

Sakura seems obvtown

i would like to know why you think this

Borfguy seems super town

and this

the scum version of this I think needs to exist for this game to be fair

and this

[zMuffinMan]

Things like character name and number of cards are obvious go-to's for kill conditions

i doubt this

there is likely a way (or are likely ways) for scum to kill, but i doubt either of these would be conditions for that (if there even are conditions like that)

[zMuffinMan]

what things is born saying that you are thinking

[zMuffinMan]

i don't really understand what you mean by sussing things out in-thread rather than the scum QT - what is he trying to suss out?

[zMuffinMan]

i doubt sakura is getting lynched today even if she were scum

[zMuffinMan]

is that it

[zMuffinMan]

nothing is impossible when you row row fight the power

[zMuffinMan]

do you have a read on him

[zMuffinMan]

why would i lie about that?

[zMuffinMan]

First two reasons that come to mind are "Getting immediate reactions" and "Trying to influence role ability/spell card decisions".

there are better ways to do both

[zMuffinMan]

i don't have any sort of town read on any of the following: bork, kagami, shadoweh, gaiden, chocola

every other player is somewhere on the spectrum of "eh could be town" to "most likely town"

sleep time

[zMuffinMan]

am I scummy for my opinion on that?

a bit, but not because you hold the opinion per se, more because of the way you're going about it.

take #198, for example. this line:

I'd be objectively right about it as scum too.

doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me from the perspective that you're town considering the possibility that i'm scum

i have issues with posts like #65 for the same reason

i don't really think a lot of the way you're going about assessing things so far is coming from a town mindset. mostly because of the way you're phrasing things and the nuances in the things you're saying

[zMuffinMan]

oh, and that part i quoted about #198 i also have an issue with because it seems like over-compensating

[zMuffinMan]

I think that opening has a specific goal

i agree

I think scum would be worried about a locked in plan like that biting them in the ass if the gamestate evolves in an unexpected way

i don't really see this

[zMuffinMan]

explain Feysal/ns/thdgkdms/Kilga

gut gut gut gut

[zMuffinMan]

I think this is just rhetoric

i disagree and i think the way he's being careful with all his words this game looks more like overly cautious scum than anything

[zMuffinMan]

or scum have weird voting mechanics

I have weird voting mechanics; it's not hard to imagine others might too.

assuming all that stuff is true it's pretty ridiculous sounding regardless of which side it's on

p-edit: I see the quadruple-vote.

I'm just saying the more crazy power you put in the game the less obvious "X must be town/scum" is

no, just a general thing

[zMuffinMan]

er didn't really mean for those quotes to be there but well, they illustrate the point i'm making anyway. was gonna go collecting all the quotes i didn't like but hey whatever

[zMuffinMan]

to be clear, my issue with #65 is "i have weird voting mechanics ergo scum probably does too" which is a weird assumption to make in the first place, but also is just very weirdly phrased from a town perspective when the much simpler statement is "i could easily see scum having weird voting mechanics" without having to mention himself - this sort of self-consciousness doesn't come across as town to me

[zMuffinMan]

explain Feysal/ns/thdgkdms/Kilga

gut gut gut gut

actually i do have somewhat legitimate reasoning for noddy but i thought it was funnier to respond like this anyway

[zMuffinMan]

explain sky_paladin and Katsuki

i don't really have any issue with anything sky paladin has written so far
cupcake is a cupcake

which are the scummiest of your non-townreads and which are the least town of your townreads

gaiden and bork
feysal and thd

[zMuffinMan]

yeah sure

[zMuffinMan]

It wouldn't make sense if they don't.

why not

[zMuffinMan]

You basically dislike him because he's sharing helpful information

no, that entirely misses the point

[zMuffinMan]

he's a strong enough townread I'd fight to save him

what exactly has he done that you agree with or think is town?

don't be vague when you answer please

[zMuffinMan]

does anyone think it's likely both shadoweh and bork are town? and, if so, i would like to hear who your four most likely scum picks are. tia

[zMuffinMan]

he has implied lynching Sakura would be impossible this day phase

that has nothing to do with me or my role

By the way, I've seen more posts from Gaiden this game than I've ever seen from him in the other games combined. I've never seen scum!Gaiden though. Is this meaningful?

i don't think the post count itself is meaningful

[zMuffinMan]

I'm not raising my eyebrows that I'm one of a small group you aren't townreading as a result

;roll;

[zMuffinMan]

I'm not sure what exactly you're trying to say with that assertion

i'm saying the way you have phrased things is not the way i think someone would phrase them if they were town thinking the same things

I don't know what to say that's going to rectify that perception

probably nothing, if i'm being perfectly honest about it. it will probably always be something in the back of my head that factors into my read on you and i'm not looking for excuses or anything

if you're town, be town

[zMuffinMan]

it is not so interesting when you consider that i could tell you the flavour of gaiden's 4x vote

[zMuffinMan]

meh, muffin seems town anyway.

at what point did you start thinking this

[zMuffinMan]

I literally already answered your question by telling you exactly what borf is saying that I agree with.

no you didn't, and you didn't answer why it makes him town, either - you've made really vague assertions that he's sussing things out (though you never answered exactly what you meant by this and what specifically you thought he'd do in the scum thread rather than the game thread if he were scum) and you've pointed out one thing he said that you seem to agree with...

or are you saying that because he said "scum could have weird voting mechanics" and you agree with this, that he's town and that alone made him a strong enough town read that you'd "fight to save him right now"?

It wouldn't make sense for so many of us to have vote shenanigans (or for one of my cards to exist) if the scum don't have vote manip as well, that's common fucking sense

well up until just recently, the only known 'vote shenanigans' were two hated players (they've been hated in literally every touhou game so far), kilga's role, my role and then you and bork claiming some "weird" vote-based stuff, and the hated roles aren't particularly "weird" in any sense of the word, and certainly aren't something i'd categorise as "vote manipulation" per se. really, the only vote manipulation that had been claimed is my role and you and bork's... so the assertion that you were making (that scum must have vote manipulation) must have come from these three alone...

[zMuffinMan]

i am kind of interested in who you actually think is scum right now, actually

give me four names you're most suspicious of right now, pour fayvor

[zMuffinMan]

then who are your town reads

[zMuffinMan]

I know that in role madness as scum I do the sussing out of how the game mechanics work in private because I don't want town to figure it out.

i am still unsure what you're actually referring to here

if you mean he took issue with someone else saying that my role made me town, then how was that sussing anything out and why would he have done that in the scum thread rather than the game thread?

if you are referring to something else, what?

[zMuffinMan]

ironically, the kind of sussing out i

think

you're referring to is my own #71 because nothing bork has written about it is anything other than, "well we don't know what's in the game so we can't make any assumptions *shrug*"

but you never mentioned my post so uh

[zMuffinMan]

like, are you suggesting that if bork were scum, he'd have gone to his scum thread and been like, "hey guys, i think muffin could be scum or town because his role isn't definitely scum or town"? and that because he said that in the game thread instead, he's either a very tricksy scum lord who is playing next-level mind games or he's town?

because if that's what you're saying, then i see no flaws in your argument

[zMuffinMan]

charming

[zMuffinMan]

@Muffin: do you actually think Shadoweh is scummy or do you just disagree with her logic + have her on PoE?

i haven't liked her responses to my questions or the game in general (i think kilgypoo made a post somewhere on the last page or two that i agreed with about her reaction to him being weird, for example)

that doesn't necessarily make her scum but i don't have her anywhere near a town read

[zMuffinMan]

i don't think i want to lynch relentless atm

[zMuffinMan]

well, damn

i guess you raise a good point

[zMuffinMan]

i dont think he's scum either, no

i would have more words but busy

[zMuffinMan]

when was it revealed that sakura is in a neighbourhood?

i'm not caught up and prob won't be til late tonight but i've skimmed stuff and seen several mentions of it but i didn't see it claimed before this page

[zMuffinMan]

@Muffin

I thought Sakura might be in a neighbourhood with Pie from their early phase interactions.

This post from Sakura suggested she was in a neighbourhood with Not Science this post and Not Science's immediate follow up confirmed it. I didn't know Pie was in the same neighbourhood for sure until just now.

why did you say sdm?

[zMuffinMan]

Did you think there couldn't possibly be another one?

why would that matter?

[zMuffinMan]

why did you use your -4 to support the idea of your role all-but-proving you to be town

ignoring whether or not i actually thought i was "proving" myself town, it

is

one of the many reasons my role doesn't make sense as a scum role - i don't actually care to discuss this unless it's actually a sticking point for someone, in which case i suppose i would be perfectly fine writing a wall explaining why you're completely wrong about theory if you disagree

[zMuffinMan]

i think i still want to lynch from within the initial pool of players i mentioned not having any sort of town read on

that's mostly still the same except maybe not kagami

[zMuffinMan]

dunno. feels kind of lazy for cupcake scum

kind feels he's town due to burden of unproficiency

[zMuffinMan]

@Muffin:

why did you say sdm?

Because I've died to Remilia enough times to know whose spellcards these were.

that isn't really in line with your #414

i asked why sdm because if you weren't sure pieguy was part of it, and sakura had very clearly used a spellcard on the first page that meant she wasn't a part of it, why sdm specifically?

[zMuffinMan]

if we're bragging, i think i've never ever shot town as a vig

i think i've never drawn vig, either

[zMuffinMan]

Enlighten me

it helps if you think about it from a design perspective. what is the purpose of my role as a scum role? either it has enough counters that it's not a very strong role (which, imo, would just be poor design and something i wouldn't expect from fakegod) and is therefore... pointless to put in the game as a scum role? or it has 2 maybe 3 "counters" in multivoters which aren't even really hard counters and i auto-win if i get rid of them, barring shenanigans (which is also horrible design, especially since scum probably do have a way of offing players outside of lynches in this game).

no amount of multivoters would actually count as a counter to my role were i scum for those reasons (unless you're just speculating it was a very poorly designed role). i mean, as is, even if every other multivoter was town and voted me, it would still take basically the entire town to lynch me (and it would actually take the entire town and probably some bussing to lynch me if one of them died)... actual counters would be something like vig shots, investigative roles, etc, etc but they're not really specific counters so much as things in the game that could be a detriment to scum. the only real counter would be something that can just completely disable my abilities, but that also is just a general counter to anything... i have the sort of role where there aren't any natural 'counters' that make a whole lot of sense. i basically count as 8 votes. every day

further, and this is actually important to the overall point, why is that rule about the game lasting only 10 days in there if scum has a role where, unless every multivoter lasts until then, is autowin far before that point is ever even reached? like literally, unless someone has 5 votes or 2 multivoters with 6 total votes between them reach lylo, i couldn't lose a lylo situation as scum. why is there a safeguard in place for scum to win come day 10? because my role fucks with them. if you want to know what an actual counter looks like, that's it. you don't put roles in a game where unless X targets Y, Y automatically wins the game. you put in safeguards like that to help one team in the event they're disadvantaged. so if, for example, scum do have a way of offing players in this game, they aren't forced to use it on me because they can never get rid of me during the day; they still have outs in that winning clause

everything about my role (together, not just one aspect of it, like you seem to be suggesting i said) makes far more sense as a town role than a scum role in a game where the rules are as they are here

all of this is considering the fact that i would just be

one

role on a scum team. one role. that would take a large chunk of town power to actually balance properly (because hey, if i didn't even mention my role and played a low key game, i could probably get away with it until the point i actually do autowin as scum). unless the setup is what? entirely balanced around countering my role? (in which case, why the autowin clause?)

and this is objectively right, which is why bork is just totally wrong when he says, "oh but we don't know what else is in the game, maybe there's a counter so it's not more likely a town role"

all that said, i

could

be scum. i could be scum with a dumb, swingy role. a dumb, swingy role that requires me being taken out before a certain point, else scum would basically autowin apart from the autowin clause they already have in place. or maybe it was put in as a scum role just because it's nonsensical as a scum role. or maybe scum is so seriously underpowered that they needed that AND an autowin clause. but really, this is more likely a town role than a scum role

i was being facetious when i called myself an innocent child, but you're simply wrong if you don't understand why it makes more sense as a town role than a scum role

[zMuffinMan]

i mean, i literally have the exact same flavour 4x vote as gaiden who could tell you it's permanent, so unless you think i'm lying about the -4 also being permanent, that doesn't really work (and yes, i was aware that if suika was in the game, they probably had the same 4x vote i do)

[zMuffinMan]

i'm not the one who keeps bringing it up and i said i'd rather drop it

*shrug*

[zMuffinMan]

i also don't really think feysal is scum atm but all the people i do think are more likely scum aren't posting anything interesting

[zMuffinMan]

that said, it's mostly that i think the angles feysal is taking are kind of weird angles to take as scum

[zMuffinMan]

Who does borkums actually think is scum?

[zMuffinMan]

I am hoping chocola dies to the 9 day rule

[zMuffinMan]

I am not enamoured with shadoweh's recent post

What did you (or anyone, really) like about it specifically?

[zMuffinMan]

eh, there have been opinions (in and before that post), it's just none of them are particular awe-inspiring

i read that reads list and just thought, "meh"

i mean the noddy pie thing is just... meh. null reads because she can't read them day one is just... meh. lurkers lurking... meh. town reads that aren't really going against the grain in any way... meh

meh

[zMuffinMan]

meh

[zMuffinMan]

oh and the very non-committal feysal read is also just... meh

[zMuffinMan]

i would like to see borkiepie do less talking about stuff that isn't particularly important and more talking about who he would or wouldn't like to lynch

[zMuffinMan]

you weren't "taking shit" for having a town read on either of those players, you were "taking shit" for not having very good reasons for those town reads. there's a world of difference between these two things, don't conflate it and act like having a town read on either in this game state is some wacky backwards thing that's going against the flow of the game

though i maintain that anyone town-reading bork for what little content he's posted (i am being generous and and assuming i missed content somewhere, when really i should be saying "no content") is silly or scum (regardless of whether or not bork actually is town)

[zMuffinMan]

oh, for not having good reasons

and

for the claimed strength of those reads

[zMuffinMan]

though i don't imagine, if you are scum, that you foresaw getting as much heat for it as you did, so still, those reads aren't particularly exciting in any way

i mean, i don't think you've really substantiated any of your reads so far? except the bork read, which after i asked you like a bazillion times to justify you're suddenly all like "oh wait maybe all that stuff i was saying i was townreading him for didn't happen but oh well he still seems town"

so uh

whatever

[zMuffinMan]

like how does kilgy go from "omg can't believe he'd say something like that so suspicious" to "oh wait, that was a joke? well now you're one of my strongest town reads even though i claim i have difficulty reading you... oh but these other people i have difficulty reading? nah they're just null"?

what points about feysal that people are mentioning do you agree with and why?

why is thd your number one scum read? or at least the person you'd most like to push if you were voting? why no mention of any of his recent posts?

why is relentless your strongest town read? i don't even think i've seen you mention him once before plopping him there? would prefer an answer to this that is more substantial than "his reaction to wagon"

[zMuffinMan]

like why are any of your reads what you claim they are?

[zMuffinMan]

Your pointless badgering is making it impossible for me to read this game

i apologise for asking you to give reads and justify them. i'm not very good at this mafia thing and didn't realise that was pointless badgering

[zMuffinMan]

Kilga's case

er.. i wouldn't exactly call one off-hand line in a post a case? ignoring whether i think it's likely that you'd read that and assume it was a serious "case"

I don't think it sounds like he cares what he's posting

in general, i hate comments like this because if i ask you to justify it you're just going to continue being vague about it, but whatever...

(a) if that's why you think he could be scum, why didn't you mention that instead of "lurking"?
(b) i'm not really expecting anything more than "OMG MUFFIN WHY DO YOU KEEP BADGERING ME I ALREADY EXPLAINED IT OMG" but, why do you even think this?

Re Feysal I think it was something Kagami said. I'm having trouble loading pages and it's 8am so I'm not going to look for it r/n.

i want you to go into more detail about what specifically you agreed with next time you can load pages

[zMuffinMan]

Either vote me out or leave me the fuck alone so I can actually play

in what way am i hampering you playing the game?

[zMuffinMan]

I don't really think Gaiden is town.

[zMuffinMan]

I don't think I've been particularly vague about my thoughts here

[zMuffinMan]

There are things I think he'd do as town that he's not doing. I don't think he's done anything town.

There are two other reasons that aren't particularly worth discussing atm (one to do with my own personal speculation about what roles I'm expecting to be in this game and one to do with who else I think could very well be scum that doesn't matter all that much unless I'm right about it)

[zMuffinMan]

A less cryptic version of that last part is that if borkybork flips scum, gaiden should probably be purged from this game immediately but I don't care to talk about why I think this until I see a borkles flip

[zMuffinMan]

that he still hasn't done anything town-looking

[zMuffinMan]

we should probably start working towards consolidating a lynch choice sooner rather than later

pretty much my would-be-willing-to-lynch pool has remained the same throughout this day phase - {bork gaiden chocola shadoweh}

i just don't really have any strong feelings about anyone outside that pool being scum atm and i don't have any strong feelings that anyone inside that pool is likely town

i am a little disappointed that chocola won't die to the 9-day rule (at least any time soon) and i kinda want that to die sooner rather than later tbh. not sure if it's a worthwhile lynch D1

[zMuffinMan]

i should note; if i choose to use my gladiator ability, it will cause all wagons to be unvoted, so keep that in mind if anyone actually cares about me proving its existence

i would like to get at least some opinions on who the most viable wagons for everyone are and start moving towards making those happen and getting a claim or two on the table before it reaches the 24-hour mark

[zMuffinMan]

I think Relentless's assessment is pretty accurate.

i feel that way about borko

[zMuffinMan]

Muffin: Why no Katsuki in that pool?

i'm holding him to different standards

[zMuffinMan]

that is cupcake's impression of a chicken, he's not actually talking to you bork

[zMuffinMan]

I think chocola could just be scum, despite how lazy and mostly uninformative a lynch there might be

[zMuffinMan]

that

or something like that

[zMuffinMan]

I haven't had a chance to read borkaloo's posts today yet outside of light skimming and likely won't til later tonight

Do they look town?

[zMuffinMan]

neighbourhoods are where all the cool kids hang

i can tell you were never popular in mafia school

[zMuffinMan]

I'm also interested in seeing Muffins response to my prior questions.

what questions

[zMuffinMan]

i am still content to lynch within the group of four players i listed before today

what sky said about chocola doesn't really affect my opinion of him all that much except that the fact he was somewhat active pre-game makes me question the lack of activity (and promises to catch up) even more

i didn't really like bork's recent catch-up, but i'm not sure how comfortable i'd be with lynching him D1. i suppose the biggest issues i have with him atm is that, even with the reads list he gave, i'm not really sure how he arrived at those reads and that i'm not really seeing any sort of game-solving so much as questions that feel rather shallow (or easy to ask). i also don't really like the whole "try it" thing with regards to noddy, mostly because with a 4x voter expressing willingness to vote him and noddy with his goon squad behind him, it wouldn't actually be all that difficult to make his lynch happen - that sort of grandstanding felt a bit like false bravado in an attempt to come off as sort of indifferent-antipathetic town or something

i still don't feel shadoweh has done anything remotely town and i think my biggest issue with her, apart from the fact that i don't really like how she's claiming she arrived at certain reads (or not explaining others), is that i keep reading her posts like she's trying to tailor them to expectations. like i don't really believe that the town reads she's expressed are ones that she arrived at naturally and i just think that the way she goes about expressing those reads looks more like scum trying to not so much white knight or buddy as simply not do anything really polarising while not making any enemies. it's like an aura of fabrication about all of her stances. *shrug*

as for gaiden, while i see him being willing to neighour with people who have a decent chunk of experience with him and could very well read him correctly, i think he's mostly doing this because if he's scum and he didn't, he'd be relatively screwed or because access to the neighbourhoods is probably just a good thing for scum to have anyway, to keep tabs on things. and i think my biggest beef with the way he's played the game so far is that he's not talking about things in a way i'd expect him to talk about things if he were town and instead is trying to come across like he's being helpful and considering and thinking about things etc but not actually doing so. so, for example, when gaiden made a string of posts about what a gladiator is, that looked more like a "hey look at me i'm trying to be thoughtful, guys!!" thing than gaiden thinking about the game from a town pov

*shrug*

i think basically everyone else in the game is town, with varying degrees of certainty and i don't really want to lynch there until i see how many i'm wrong or right about in the above group of four, really

barring something changing between now and whenever a lynch occurs, which seems unlikely

i would be perfectly fine with voting chocola today, if only because it's probably the easiest one to make actually happen. it's also the one i'd feel least guilty about if i'm wrong and while there aren't mounds of information to be gleaned from his flip, it would make me feel a lot better about certain players if he does flip scum

[zMuffinMan]

that said, a chocola town flip would be pretty turd, which is the only reason i'm a little hesitant

[zMuffinMan]

seriously dude if you've got an issue with my reads then fucking ask for an explanation and you'll get one.

well for starters, a simplified "I think x is scum for reasons a,b,c" would be helpful since it seems like you're reading feysal as scum for projecting or something? and noddy scum for... not interacting with you and calling you scum? there may be other reasons but it's hard to follow the progression on these reads. I know you've talked to them or asked people's opinions of them but I don't see where the scum reads form and why

[zMuffinMan]

also my power is out temporarily and my phone is 17% battery so limited access for a little bit until I figure out some way of leeching electricity off someone

[zMuffinMan]

So why do you comment on me when I'm the topic of conversation and with me when I'm actually pushing you but ignore me the rest of the game?

you haven't been around for most of the game so i think this is a bit silly

[zMuffinMan]

so i just looked back through your ISO and all i see about feysal is the back-and-forth with regard to him talking about how your pieguy read came about

and other than the recent thing with noddy voting you, all i see is something about him not doing things and asking pieguy for his read on noddy

eh

[zMuffinMan]

in all honesty, i'm pretty OK with just lynching chocola today and going from there

i expect some things will be a lot clearer D2

[zMuffinMan]

I wouldn't feel too bad, Kilgy, chocola didn't exactly help your cause (which is as good a reason as any to punish him with rope, but not in a kinky way, in a lynchy way)

PS my phone autocorrects Kilgy to Killy - I think it's trying to tell me something

[zMuffinMan]

Wouldn't be the first time my phone autocorrected something and I found scum because of it. Trusty phone never fails me.

[zMuffinMan]

A forced replacement might have happened if chocola didn't post after 4.5 days absence... As is we'll need to hope he doesn't post for another 6 days for that to happen...

[zMuffinMan]

i don't really think feysal is scum, but he is low down on my list of could-be-town players, along with cupcake and thd

[zMuffinMan]

i don't even really think bork is a bad lynch, i would just feel meh if he flipped town (doubly so if chocola is scum)

[zMuffinMan]

Muffin, I don't think there's a response I can give your opinion on me that would satisfy you, but I did read your post. I don't recall us having conflicts like this in the past, a lot of my frustration is from you not being able to read me this once.

this is the mental image i have in my head every time i read your posts

Spoiler:

[zMuffinMan]

well, if he *is* scum, it makes sense to save any cards for later in the game

[zMuffinMan]

i use many adjectives to describe mehness. turdiness is just one of them

[zMuffinMan]

fwiw consider chocola l-2

[zMuffinMan]

I'm usually into D1 lurker lynches but a last minute lynch on somebody who's modkill / vigbait seems like a bad idea

eh

there's a number of people who've said lines like "X will happen D2, just wait and see" that i'm fine with just waiting and seeing while getting rid of a player who is unlikely to be killed via modkill (unless he doesn't post another "hey guys catching up tomorrow" post in the next 5.5 days) and i'd rather not rely on a vig shooting (besides which, there are other available vig shots) and has an ok chance of flipping scum (though i say this mostly based on the fact that i'm struggling to find good scum reads elsewhere)

[zMuffinMan]

if chocola does show up in the next 24 hours, he should claim immediately

[zMuffinMan]

i am debating whether it's worth letting the slot be replaced (though i doubt it will happen any time before this day phase ends unless he explicitly requests it), in which case we'd need to decide another lynch in the next 21 hours, or just killing it today

[zMuffinMan]

i will say that if that slot does get replaced and doesn't IMMEDIATELY claim everything about their role, i will hammer it

[zMuffinMan]

i am pretty sure the ffery replacement is what the 24 hour freeze is about, given i directly asked a question about it before that post

presumably we need to wait for ffery to reply to fakegod and such

in any case, if ffery does replace in and does not full claim in her first post, i will probably hammer her

and in the event we arent lynching that slot, i would probably go for a bork lynch or a gaiden lynch. either or

[zMuffinMan]

Did you actually doubt that happened?

[zMuffinMan]

do you think you'll be caught up tonight?

if so, i'm going to wait until you catch up to comment on anything

[zMuffinMan]

i doubt it. last time i was in a neighbourhood with someone i got them lynched D1 so i could spend some alone time with fakegod

there's no guarantee i wouldn't do the same here

[zMuffinMan]

you should claim all the negative utility aspects of your role, i think

but that was on the assumption we'd have <12 hours to the deadline

[zMuffinMan]

who are your scum reads?

thd and? feysal?

[zMuffinMan]

The ultimate point was less about Muffin's alignment and more about why it was a bad idea to just shut off one's brain and assume TownMuffin.

that's never a bad idea

lynch all liars

[zMuffinMan]

Though I sincerely doubt sakura can actually confirm herself tomorrow, yes, that is the reason most people are ignoring her today, but no, that's not to do with the spell card she used on page one

[zMuffinMan]

I don't think ffery has done anything particularly interesting or particularly town yet

I am interested in seeing where she ends up with her reads and why

[zMuffinMan]

thb hasn't mentioned my slot at all this entire gameday as far as I can find, despite the high likelihood Chocola would have been lynched if he hadn't replaced out, and the fact that my wagon didn't soften at all until several hours after I replaced in. If he's scum, his own lynch became a little more likely as a result of that perturbation, yet he didn't latch onto any of the higher probability wagons fluttering around. he's stayed pretty hyperfocused on players who are highly unlikely to be lynched today.

Doesn't feel like the sort of positioning that scum would do, even if one or some of the higher likelihood lynches are teammates.

i disagree with some things here but i don't feel thd is all that likely scum

so

who do you think should be lynched or still too early to say?

[zMuffinMan]

178 can't say I care much for kagami's reads here.

what does this mean?

Page 5, I feel iike bork is going out of his way to stay wary of zmuffin

probably correct

I really don't like thdkms's 175. I feel like sakura's push back was to be expected, and that pieguy looked a little worse for wear in it all.

so you think scum is more likely to make a post like #175 than town?

At just the point where I started to panic about bork, he came in on page 25 and 26 and got pissy

why is this relevant?

I'm not really sure about Feysal. I worry I'm defaulting to must-be-scum because I'm unfamiliar with him.

can you point me to feysal posts you think are more likely to come from scum than town and describe why?

I think with Gaiden there are usually some very sharp edges to his thoughts when he's town. I'm not sure how to explain it, but I didn't get that impression from his posts here

this is reasonable

her explanations for why she was asking come from a town place

is this something you thought before or after suggesting kagami was a null read?

[zMuffinMan]

I didn't think anything of kagami asking about card numbers or the reasoning behind it and it has all of nothing to do with why I decided she's more likely town than scum

ftr, I would assume said reasoning is something she probably thought before the game even began, which is why I didn't, and still don't, care about it

[zMuffinMan]

Muffin: Can you detail why you'd vote ffery('s slot) over Bork at this point?

Well I have been explicitly avoiding mentioning who I currently want to lynch since ffery replaced in so you're confusing things somewhere

If your question is simply, "why, with all the things you said about borkypoo, did you want to lynch Chocola?" then the answer is simply risk-reward. I'm fine with leaving Bork alive until I am more confident about the read and I would feel slightly bad about lynching him if he happens to be town because I don't think he's that bad a town player. In the mean time, I was fine with lynching Chocola, who I also thought was likely scum but wouldn't feel even an ounce of remorse if I happened to be wrong

[zMuffinMan]

I would also be fine with lynching gaiden for the same reasons as chocola fwiw, but with most of the goon squad saying they didn't support it, chocola was the sensible option

[zMuffinMan]

Actually I've been explicitly avoiding discussing a few things since ffery replaced in

One such thing is ffery's claim, what it means about her alignment (if anything), in terms of both the role itself and whether the fact she openly claimed it means anything. I am disappointed no one else thought it was an interesting discussion point (unless I missed it somewhere in my skimming)

[zMuffinMan]

who's scum

[zMuffinMan]

Y

[zMuffinMan]

do you literally have no opinions on anything that's happened in the past 48 hours?

[zMuffinMan]

Yes

Do you have no questions for anyone, either?

[zMuffinMan]

Is there a reason you're not forthcoming about these "ideas" and "concerns"

[zMuffinMan]

you can share whatever you'd like to share

mafiascum is a free country

[zMuffinMan]

how does that translate to a concern about kagami and why did you not allude to a concern about kagami until just now

[zMuffinMan]

I don't care much for trying to guess the distribution of the number of cards when it probably has no bearing on anything by itself, regardless of whether or not scum can reuse cards

[zMuffinMan]

Not sure what muffin thinks, but a enough of ffery's points align with my thinking to an extent that I don't want to go in that direction.

what do you mean by "ffery's points"?

[zMuffinMan]

Yeah I'm leaning town enough on bork that I don't want to vote him.

i would like you and bork to give me at least two names of people who are scum that are not feysal

[zMuffinMan]

FYI, if, for whatever reason, we lynch feysal today and feysal flips town, i am exercising my voting powers from the get-go D2 to murderise the fuck out of {ffery, bork, gaiden} and basically not moving my vote outside of that pool until they're all dead

barring some sort of reason not to between now and tomorrow, though i sincerely fucking doubt that anyone from that pool is going to have any sort of inno on them between now and then anyway

this is something i would like followed through with if i happen to not be around tomorrow, btw

and this is the only condition on which i would accept feysal being a lynch candidate today

i'm not even super-confident feysal is town or anything, but i just see him as the designated mislynch in a pool of harder-to-lynch-than-feysal players that scum is hoping remains on the table because otherwise they're fucked - or at least this is where all signs are pointing for me atm

[zMuffinMan]

ftr, if "ffery's points" means "i agree with ffery's reads and think she's on the right track" then yeah, i also agree with ffery's reads because most (or possibly all) of the people she's called town are actually town - that doesn't make her town, though, and i have issues with the way she's approached the game so far that make me not have her anywhere close to a town read

the reason i want to see who bork and ffery think is scum (outside of feysal) is because now that bork has retracted his noddy scum read, he has all of one scum read and a whole bunch of town / lean-town reads, and ffery has... i dunno... gaiden and that's it now?

i want to see their picture of the game right now

i want to see them come up with a list of people they think are likely to be scum

i want to see bork come up with at least 1 or 2 candidates for feysal's scum partner, if nothing else

[zMuffinMan]

and the only reason i'm not demanding the same of shadoweh right now is because she's not going to do it, no matter how much i ask

because "oh that's not how i scum hunt" or some bullshit like that but whatever

if i were actually to press the issue, i would like shadoweh to come up with a list of people she thinks are most likely scum, too, since i haven't seen anything of the sort from her, either

i doubt that the entire scum team is in this pool of players {bork, ffery, gaiden, shadoweh} but i sure as fuck think there's at least two, quite possibly three scum names there and i want it dead sooner rather than later

i want to be more sure of my reads than i am now, though, and i think that's going to happen D2, so back to the main issue at hand:

everyone (including shadoweh) should give a current list of people they're willing to vote today - minimum two names, preferably three

[zMuffinMan]

I'd like to interact with bork some.

also, fwiw, from the moment ffery said this, in combination with the fact that she gave two people who she'd be willing to vote today who also just happened to be the same people i would like to see lynched, i thought to myself, "yep, what's going to happen is ffery and bork are going to have a back-and-forth conversation about the game and regardless of whether or not bork comes out of it looking town, ffery is going to say she changed her read on bork from it"

i am literally not surprised at all this actually happened

like

literally not at all

[zMuffinMan]

i think ffery wanted to align her reads with mine as much as possible before trying to make it look like she organically changed her read on bork and not really wanting to lynch gaiden either

but basically

if we lynch bork today and he flips scum, murderise the other two

do not pass go or collect $200, just murderise them

[zMuffinMan]

like the only thing that would have actually surprised me about the bork-ffery back-and-forth is if ffery came out of it voting bork

because that would mean my prediction was off somewhere

and i'd probably need to reevaluate

[zMuffinMan]

i didn't ask whether you wanted to lynch feysal

[zMuffinMan]

the reason i want to see who bork and ffery think is scum (outside of feysal)

Then I don't know what this is about.

it is exactly what it says it's about

i put outside of feysal more for bork but also because i didn't want you to say feysal either

how exactly was i being unclear when i asked who you want to lynch

[zMuffinMan]

why is the feysal line there the part you focus on when it literally isn't important except insofar as i don't want to hear "feysal" as an answer to the questions i asked

[zMuffinMan]

so with not very long to the deadline, how exactly do you intend to decide who you want to vote?

regardless of whether you're doing whatever poe thing you're claiming you're doing, who are the people you're currently looking at lynching

[zMuffinMan]

like you don't think bork is scum

you're claiming you're not scum

give me three to four names that aren't in your town list

[zMuffinMan]

The rest of the stuff you're coming up with looks associative to me

well, duh

i mean, i think you could both very well be scum independently of each other, so it's not entirely based on associatives, but that stood out as a good reason to think you're scum together

I don't really see any reason to change what I'm doing and thinking so far purely on the basis of you thinking I'm part of a scum grouping

when did i ask you to do that? what was the relevance in saying this?

[zMuffinMan]

that's not even true

[zMuffinMan]

i've never seen you have an issue with coming up with a lynch pool, even if you call them "not as town" or whatever

[zMuffinMan]

what exactly did bork do or say that made you think he's town, btw

i figure i should pretend it was an organic read and ask you about it

or how specifically did you go from willing to lynch him to thinking i'm wrong

[zMuffinMan]

show me a game you've had any issue tiering reads in such a way that you were unable to come up with a list of players you'd be willing to lynch

[zMuffinMan]

I'm worried I'll play the game I want this to be

every time you throw lines like this out there, i think it's far less likely you're town

[zMuffinMan]

i probably wouldn't be too sad if thd was lynched, but i don't feel it's terribly likely he's scum

that said, things i'm attributing to him as possibly town are also things that i'm looking back at and thinking could just be coming from a really backward style of scum play and i don't really like the continual focus on noddy and sakura alone

[zMuffinMan]

Dear Kilgypoo,

Why are you willing to vote players you think are "useless" over players you actually have some sort of scum read on?

[zMuffinMan]

allow me to guess what muffincat's input is going to be...

KILL EVERYTHING

PS: CUPCAKES ARE INFERIOR TO MUFFINS

[zMuffinMan]

Instead, I found that you're scumreading a player I think looked pretty town especially when viewing him against the in-thread behaviors of his neighborhood.

Feysal? Well, unpack that for me because he's been misrepping me pretty much the entirety of the game

What was feysal misrepresenting?

[zMuffinMan]

I dunno why that smilie is there but my phone apparently thought it was a good thing to insert on its own

I am ok with that. You dun good, phone

[zMuffinMan]

I'll look back through the Feysel stuff, though.

What happened with this

[zMuffinMan]

I was half right but only because cupcake is half wrong

[zMuffinMan]

post 897 happened.

Right, and did you ever explain what exactly borkie porkie puddin' and pie did that made him look town to you? I remember something vague but I don't remember liking the explanation

[zMuffinMan]

liking his interaction with notsci when he came back

what is this referring to and why did you like it

[zMuffinMan]

i don't think 619 was a town reaction at all but i've already gone over why i think this, i think

tl;dr it was very out of place imo

(and also the explanation you're attributing to that post is different from the explanation he himself gave which was something along the lines of "noddy hasn't mentioned me then suddenly wanted to vote me" or something along those lines cbf going back and checking)

[zMuffinMan]

619 looks to me like something i would say if i were scum trying to give off the impression that i'm combative town

[zMuffinMan]

it does not look to me like a natural reaction from a town player, any which way you slice it

[zMuffinMan]

No he's not

[zMuffinMan]

Literally just go read any ISO from any game he's actually been town in then come back and read his ISO here

If you don't notice the difference, you're blind

[zMuffinMan]

Guys, just run me up and make me claim

if you want to claim, then claim

nothing is stopping you

[zMuffinMan]

I have a 100% track record of killing Gaiden night 1 regardless of my alignment though.

don't let this be the game that breaks your streak!

[zMuffinMan]

I could lynch Sir Borkington, if only because I think him flipping scum would break the game pretty wide open IMO

[zMuffinMan]

Well, if only probably wasn't the right terminology there but whatever. Same diff

[zMuffinMan]

ok. who do you want to lynch?

@kilgy

is there a reason you didn't include thd in the list of "useless" players?

[zMuffinMan]

simply because that's the way FG usually does this kind of thing.

Town-aligned daycards generally aren't super-high utility

neither of these is true ftr (though it may happen to be the case in this game)

[zMuffinMan]

I still don't like feysal

i am not thoroughly impressed by feysal on reading back over things, but i don't think he'd be anywhere near my first choice of lynch if i were given free rein

Gaiden's play is wildly different than usual, which potentially stems from fear of currently living players.

that is one assumption i am making

I'd like more from relentless, thugcuddles

agreed

I guess GiF looks town enough, and has reason to think feysal is town?

agree with the first part - but i doubt gif's endorsement of feysal means anything, though, and i'm probably not going to factor it into any read on feysal

[zMuffinMan]

the human-only vig was from the second game, in which the only human was an innocent child

it was also in game 3 but that doesn't really add anything to your point

there's also stuff like noddy's role in the first game

in general, vigs in these games haven't been geared towards taking out scum roles (at least no more than they haven't)

and define high utility

[zMuffinMan]

"notably" increasing expected win-rate is dependent on how a lot of cards are used - e.g. i wouldn't say ankamius's spell card from last game was particularly high utility except that it could block claimed scum from being able to use anything to mess up lynches

in general, though, i'd expect at least half town's day cards to either directly or potentially increase town's win chances. i'm not sure if i should expect more or less in a virtually-nightless game

[zMuffinMan]

hm. looking back over game 3, human vig wasn't in that game actually. was a non-human vig. anyway, not super important, except insofar as i don't think fakegod designs town counters for scum roles in the way you were suggesting (if anything, i think his setups are more about designing scum roles to counter town power, but that's also probably a bad generalisation to make)

[zMuffinMan]

Feysal should probably just claim in his next post

[zMuffinMan]

I will murderise anyone who reaches L-4 at this point so claim early or forever hold your peace

[zMuffinMan]

just fyi i think there's a decent chance thd could be scum with bork

might read other recent stuff later when not on break

[zMuffinMan]

(that's just something i've been holding onto for a couple days now and part of the reason i said i was very ok with a bork lynch and thought it would break the game open whenever i said that, assuming i said that and didn't imagine i said that)

(bbl)

[zMuffinMan]

That is part of why I asked, the other part is that I was already building my thd-Borkums theory in my head and it stuck out to me that, in a list of "useless" players, you didn't include an obvious one

*shrug*

[zMuffinMan]

Okay, well, since we apparently can't lynch Sakura Hana today...
UNVOTE: Sakura Hana
I just want to put it out there that I still think that Sakura Hana is scummy, but whatever.

With regards to the recent spat involving borkjerfkin, I don't really feel that he's particularly scummy, so whatever.
Something about Shadoweh's posts bother me though.
Like, I look at posts like 171 and 226 and I don't see anything of substance.
All she does is say that X is wrong because Y and provides no actual opinions or thoughts of her own.
I don't really get why you'd want to shut down discourse since that's what refuting arguments while providing none of your own kind of does?
VOTE: Shadoweh

Also CBF trimming this quote on phone but this mention of Bork stands out to me a lot

[zMuffinMan]

It's 41 degrees tomorrow

41

That's like 500 degrees in America

And it's not even summer yet

I can feel my phone melting in my hand already

[zMuffinMan]

i think the spellcards bork used likely had to do with in-game things like "person with least votes" "person who last used a spellcard" etc etc and nothing to do with flavour

not that it's important

[zMuffinMan]

in other news I think gaiden may be town on role unless scum has multiple quicklynchers :S (muffin too obviously but yeah)

i think there is probably at least one more scum player with a vote manipulation role (either in terms of extra votes or in terms of being unlynchable)

[zMuffinMan]

in a virtually nightless game, vote shenanigans are going to replace kills (obviously), ergo it is not surprising, no

[zMuffinMan]

I would expect at least one scum in bork's town list

it may be the case, but i think this is a pretty meh thing to expect

[zMuffinMan]

i was willing to let bork live to endgame if he gave good compliments like he promised but he hasn't been doing that, which could mean he's scum? probably should be lynched tomorrow

[zMuffinMan]

Yes, cupcakes ARE better than muffins.

OK that's the final straw

I'm invoking lynch all liars

You're fucking dead tomorrow

[zMuffinMan]

I don't actually know... but one is clearly superior and it's not the cupcake

[zMuffinMan]

i've gained some insight that i'd rather not share here yet.
i would like to think that both of them are town.

Congratulations on your first reads.

How do you feel? Was it scary? You'll get used to it eventually