Open 735: Watchmen Wanted - Game Over!
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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You're lucky I can't swap back to that avatar right now ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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Recently I'd been a bit of a wet blanket because I overcommitted myself and forgot about some travel (well, that, and I rolled a protective role so I lurked my way into staying alive in a game that just ended)
But I'm back, baby, so lord I hope you're actually town with me this time because you know I'll put the screws to ya without hesitation-
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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Grab 1.75g of dry oolong tea leavesIn post 656, the worst wrote:don't feel bad baby elephant
some people really really struggle with reading me
some totally do not xD
Scatter into a baking sheet
Shake for more than 2s but less than 4.4s
If it forms a vaguely duck-like shape, he's town-
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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Unclear; best to consult with the modIn post 668, the worst wrote:
i used lapsang souchongIn post 659, Nauci wrote:
Grab 1.75g of dry oolong tea leavesIn post 656, the worst wrote:don't feel bad baby elephant
some people really really struggle with reading me
some totally do not xD
Scatter into a baking sheet
Shake for more than 2s but less than 4.4s
If it forms a vaguely duck-like shape, he's town
are we in trouble-
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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Lordy
Tryhardrrelephant came out to play!
I've been dealing with some personal shit :< also headed out to an eye appointment. Taking my laptop just in case I can still read a screen with my pupils dilated in the afternoon ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I swear to God it's like the whole world is against me being on MS this week; I've been modding via occasional 4G signal in bathrooms-
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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After reading the first 200 posts I have a narrative/idea of keyser's motivations and narrative that feels extremely plausibly scum to me and I noted a lot of which posts made me feel that way, but since I have over 600 posts to still read, I didn't bother to write up the case yet because it could change or have stronger data points. Plus, I want to finish reading before I do the necessary deep dives to test my hypotheses.In post 924, Eragon wrote:In post 725, Nauci wrote:Not even remotely caught up (I'm at like post 52) but VOTE: Keyser Söze until I'm done because like dayum
why do you think keyser is scum?In post 916, Nauci wrote:Making progress
and not changing my vote; actually if anything I feel worse about Keyser at this point
is it the posts you pointed out in your wall or is it something else?
if its something else, what is it?
I feel strongly that Reundo is town from the first 200 posts, that Keyser is coming from a scum POV, and the rest I'll develop as I finish reading
Leaving the notes in raw form to hurry the process along, but posting them so that you guys can read my reactions and thought processes and therefore form reads on me. Convincing you guys of my reads will happen afterwards and in a much more organized manner (pretty similarly to what I did in presidents, IMO, except apparently a lot of people didn't even read my glorious wall posts that I so carefully wrote and formatted and annotated >:C).-
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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No you're notIn post 950, Irrelephant11 wrote:yeah I'm actually pretty interested in a Nauci flip-
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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Damnit I knew I had set a new bar for myself with the American Presidents game lmao
Whether or not I format a post depends on how much time I have on my hands and if I am on my phone or my laptop or not, actually; don't rely on shallow tells like that IMO but then again I've not played scum enough to know what tells for myself would be hmmmmmmm
Irrelephant it's totally bizarre that you'd say you want to see my flip before I've even put more content into the thread; my flip wouldn't even generate any associatives. What? Is this more reaction testing?-
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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Okay sorry for the delay; I've had so many things pop up unexpectedly lately
Spoiler: musings and ramblings and notes and reactions for posts 200-399
omg there's a button to add [post] tags I'd been manually typing them for all of my stuff before (though that was on desktop where I wrote them up in Sublime; currently having to juggle back and forth between my laptops and phone via Google Keep so shit's a mess sorry)-
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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Spoiler: hot takes and notations from 400-599
Looks like the next 200 aren't that substantive so I might be able to finish catching up tonight? But it's already like 1 AM. I've been sleeping at a normal schedule when the sun is down every day for like 2 weeks now for the first time in literally >5 years but lord am I tempted to fuck that up by deep diving Keyser games until 5 AM like an idiot-
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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Quick and dirty reads list before I head into the 600s
Skitter Tier:
Reundo - Bellaphant of the ball
nsg - this is so outside of scumsg range and definitely in burned-out-townsg range
You know what? You's alright:
Toranga
Eragon
Ausuka
Wouldn’t bet on these:
Dunnstral
The worst
Naughty little boys and well actually just boys:
Keyser
Irrelephant-
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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honestly yeah nsg is really easy to read lol; she just puts in way more effort as town than scum and hate hate hate hates scummingIn post 986, Toranaga wrote:is burnt-out-town range nsg not in nsg's scum range?
is she that easy to read?
I mean she a style that's suitable for wolfing, you know
oh well
and this is the most effort I've seen her put into a game in the last several months (there's like at least one scum pt where like her only post is a "why can't I ever roll town" complaint-
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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I realize it was a while back, but just check out this ISO
versus scum nsg:
Subject: Micro 817: Mafia PT
replaced outnorthsidegal wrote:i just want to be town
viewtopic.php?p=10367782&user_select%5B ... #p10367782
Subject: Mini Normal 2024 Mafia Thread
Shallow reads/lurking into replace outnorthsidegal wrote:uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuggh why cant i just be town
Subject: American Presidents, the War Room Mafia PT
lurk then replace out :< :< :<northsidegal wrote:sigh
Man, NSG, I'm sorry about this crap luck rolling scum so many times in such a short time.
I think her town games aren't nearly so high effort right now but, as seen above, her scum games are far lower still.-
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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I think that I'm only able to come to these reads because I know the two players and read everyone on a narrative/psychological basis. If I didn't, I'd absolutely have them in my town basket because they are very good and very active players who have all the usual hallmarks of town mannerisms.In post 985, Toranaga wrote:that just feels wrong to me
I'll read the game later but irrelephant and keyser as scum? wow
maybe I'm a dumbass but that's completely opposite to my reads
My case on Keyser will expound on Reundo's but I think I'll hold off on Irrelephant because there's a whole lot more interaction I want to do there to test my hypotheses-
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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If you want to see the breadth of Irrelephant's scumrange, read our 17 page scum pt for a 9 player newbie game lol (I was a jerk and lurked out because I also struggle with motivation when I roll scum but fortunately it's been super rare)
He purposely makes typos, very super softly scum reads but then defends me because he's hyper aware of associations and pocketing opportunities, specs out every possible role claim and fake claim and optimal night kill, and cases tons of players in the game thread with such expertise that it carried the lurking of me and all of my replacements through to a flawless victory without ever having to even bus my slot. Everyone swore up and down that he was their only sure town read until the very end, when he backstabbed his biggest supporters lol.
In American Presidents I poked and prodded Irrelephant for like 80 pages before I finally stopped scum reading or being paranoid about him and town read him, but even after that I had to neapolitan check him just to be totally sure (and more importantly to assuage the paranoia that I fed to Skitter early on about Irrelephant). But it does mean I do think I can read him fairly well, and that declaring so actually makes his responses more telling.
Irrelephant are you tired of me joining your games and putting you through all this yet-
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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Hmm.In post 997, Toranaga wrote:man irrelephant iirc cased the fuck out of volxen d1
it just feels not svs
Actually thank you for pointing this out; most of my feelings on irrelephant were based on his interactions with keyser and largely near deadline. I didn't realize how early he pushed volxen fairly hard for that reads list post, and this changes my view significantly.
I'll finish catch up and rethink things. I mean, I've had an overwhelming scum case for people before and been dead wrong (mathblade in team mafia tiebreaker, blackvoid in american presidents), etc., so I'll be doing a lot of keyser meta diving before I really push there, but I wasn't at all familiar with BV's range tbh.-
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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It's entirely dependent on the game and context, but I find that townrrelephant is more casual, more "adhd" and likely to jump around, empty vote, provoke reactions, test stuff, make more scummy posts in service of those goals, and just generally spend a lot of time being paranoid. I tend to come to totally different reads from townrrelephant.
Scumrrelephant was more opportunistic about scum reads, fishes out possible mislynch pursuits in question form (instead of scumreading outright, he'll ask "what do you think about <player>'s <action>?" or "hmmm <posts> could be scummy" or "this pinged me" and only go into it when he has the temperature of the room. He's meticulous about having a towny post style (and since this didn't apply before he ever knew I'd be in the game to undermine it, it's making me worry less about him).-
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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this is townrrelephant–final answerIn post 657, Irrelephant11 wrote:My last thought (about Toranaga) got me thinking about how the wagon on volxen happened and I went back and found this
Which, given scum don't have day chat, is VERY INTERESTING.In post 399, the worst wrote:hot take: we need to hammer Sesq who will do nothing to defend themselves or flashwagon volxen who is one rung townier and will become extremely obvious later if scum
If volxen "will become extremely obvious later if scum", why be concerned about lynching him now? (wagon movement was still more toward sesq, who tw says here is scummier)
Unlesshe's trying to hint to his scum buddy that it's time to bus
Toranaga immediately followed it up with the move to vote volxen, which tw followed. Tor has tried to claim towncred for them both this game day, and has since lampshaded "inb4 partners" which, admittedly, would be bold, but would also make anyone who called them partners look a little silly
Any thoughts on this? tw has come across as feeling v towny in tone but I can't get over the combo of
-GNB's weirdness
-volxen's long, drawn out nullread of the slot
-tw's TMI of the lynch
And then Toranaga
-Has directed attention off-wagon without reasoning
-Has lots of interactions with tw that are really very friendly and (significantly) once tw joined the game Tor was much more interested in playing
Tor was also pretty scummy last game day imo (see: Keyser's case, which was mostly ignored?)
Thoughts anyone? They happen to both be independently possible scum but ISO the two of them + GNB and see if you see what I see
For now I'll start with VOTE: Toranaga
pedit: hi sorry-
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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hahahahhaahhahaaIn post 665, Toranaga wrote:-Has lots of interactions with tw that are really very friendly and (significantly) once tw joined the game Tor was much more interested in playing
I like how enjoying to play with certain people is scummy to you irrelephant
See all of irrelephant and I's interactions in american presidents or mini normal 2024 or here for why I'm giggling-
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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Subject: Mini Normal 2024 - Endgame
Subject: Mini Normal 2024 - EndgameToranaga wrote:yeah I checked NSG's ISO before replacing in and, never seeing her scum game before but also never seeing her lurk this hard as town I was guessing this would be a red role PM. turns out I'm town which works great for me cause wolfing is... painful
I'm going out in a bit so I can't read the thread rn
Subject: Mini Normal 2024 - EndgameToranaga wrote:
yeah I enjoy the challenge of subbing in late regardless, I just thought this had a >rand chance of landing on scumIn post 1083, BlueBloodedToffee wrote:Creature, where did DDL go from your scum reads?
Toranaga, you replaced into a slot, thinking it would be a scum slot, even though you dislike playing scum?
Lmao the amount of lamp shading and WIFOM bait is hilarious. (DDL was the 3rd scum that game) Toranga you put up a hell of a scum game; not sure if anyone but Krazy would have caught you that gameToranaga wrote:IDK anything and I'm just suggesting but that drdolittle ISO is an absolute garbage fire and deserves death
Toranga is capable of not just bussing but casing his teammates and I have no doubt that he can plan to confidently claim town credit for doing so and rescind my town lean-
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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Spoiler: mad ramblings on 600-799
Mmk it's 3 AM so I'mma stop now but here's my preliminary listicle:
Town bucket:
reundo
nsg
irrelephant
ausuka
Lynch candidates:
Eragon (lurked all of d2; more research needed)
the worst (could swing either way; every other post pings me as towny or scummy)
toranga(nothing I previously townread for is out of toranga's scum range. More research needed)
dunnstral(come play with us I don't even have anythihng to read you on)
keyser(I'm going to need several hours of free time to get this case ready; don't want to screw it up like I did BV)-
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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I've been wrong about my scum reads (but also dunked lots of scum), but I've never been wrong about my strong townreads to my knowledge.In post 1017, Toranaga wrote:in b4 all 5 of your lynch candidates are town and it's just ausuka and NSG-
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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The most important part of volxen's ISO is that he had spent a lot of time reading mafia theory and guides on the wiki, so we can make some safe assumptions about his play style being based on the things mhsmith et all have written about scumming, associatives, etc., IMO.In post 1037, Irrelephant11 wrote:lol not what I meant
I don't mean "he was really bad at playing scum" which is sorta true but you live and learn, whatever
I mean "the way he played scum was pretty textbook and I think his associations are going to be more helpful than the average flipped scum, so we don't need to get weird/paranoid with the lynch"-
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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Okay first of all I already wrote a book on this in american presidents. Second, I wrote a relatively detailed note on every instance I had a reaction to something TW post and why, so just go read those.In post 1039, Keyser Söze wrote:@Nauci - what does ‘scum The Worst’ look like in your own words?-
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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Even as a spectator without the obvious bias of being in the slot, my reaction to these associatives that feels strong is that he didn't try to throw the heat off of himself and onto a teammate, so Toranga (and I) are clear. I don't see a world where inexperienced scum would do that, tbh.In post 1042, Irrelephant11 wrote:volxen associations:
14 - RVS votes GNB[tw]
104 - He parrots NSG's (without mentioning nsg) "why say not to townread yourself?" case on GNB[tw]
123 - He shades Sesq[Nauci] for poorly scumcasing Keyser
125 - He continues to argue with GNB[tw] and answers Ausuka's question about GNB[tw]
148 - Asks 2.718[Huntress] if he's still scumreading Keyser
167 - Answers Toranaga's question about GNB[tw] ("I'm nullreading him")
237 - He townreads Keyser for weak reasons; nullreads nsg in few words; nullreads GNB[tw] in very many words; scumreads 2.718[Huntress] with his most in-depth thought processes yet. His reasons for the scumread are:
> Misrepping Keyser
> Siding with Reundo against Keyser
> Townreading Reundo with poor reasoning
254 -Tries to direct attention off his slot by pointing at lurkers. Namely: 2.718[Huntress], Toranaga, and Sesq.Notably, part of his scumread of Tor is that Tor thinks scum is in 2.718[Huntress]/volxen/sesq. I think this is somewhat clearing for Tor (in addition to the towncred he does actually deserve for the volxen lynch) because I don't think their scum play here was to name each other in their lynchbait lists.
280 - Reiterates his scumreads from his previous posts. Also says Reundo/Keyser is either t/t or s/t (Keyser being town either way)
288 - says hi to the worst (not really indicative, I'm just being thorough)
321 - He answers nsg's question about knowing the worst ("yes")
324 & 326 - continues to talk about nsg, this time about his experience with mafia and mafiascum.
330 - Becomes the fourth vote on sesq
352 - Welcomes Huntress
354 - Helps sesq try to unvote
383 - Welcomes Eragon
446 - Claims watcher in response to me
484 - Tries to shift wagon movement back to sesq in response to me
508 - Shades Reundo for attacking Keyser one more time after his lynch is inevitable-
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this is like your 9th flip on dunn case him properly or stop flippingIn post 1053, Toranaga wrote:dunn is totally scum, his ISO is horrible-
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i woujld love for us to not lynch town tiaIn post 1055, Irrelephant11 wrote:I mean I would love if nsg would come refute the nsg case-
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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Pausing from my catch up to point out that this is a bomb-ass postIn post 912, Ausuka wrote:i told myself i was going to stop posting content itt because i'm having no fun but i can't stay away because i have a mafia addiction probably. still not really going to bother defending myself, sorry
don't think chainlynching popular suspects is going to get town anywhere. i don't think anything indicates scum are feeling pressure; feels like slots commonly seen as town are mostly sitting back and watching suspects go at it, while not actually committing to townreads on any of the suspected players. like, aside from tw to toranga who really tr's any of {ausuka, dunn, toranga} on a substantial level? because as far as i see it's nothing and scum don't really look uncomfortable.
also Reundo had a towny day 1 yeah but he's like totally been scumming it up d2.
first is his keyser push which is like a possible motive of the huntress kill other than keyser!scum I think? but that's minor, more importantly he just up and forgets about this push because nobody was biting? and like his decision to chainlynch me and toranga doesn't make much sense i think. the voteflopping / "opportunism" thing has literally been done to death and is boring while the "organic" thing makes like very little sense; he can feel free to elaborate on it if he wants but I feel like I didn't detail progression on volxen itt so I don't see how it can really be read as inorganic. the fos on toranga I kind of just don't understand at all. and I don't get how he can literally just push a chainlynch while seemingly not really caring about anything either of us posts; like, he has other SRs, he has 4 FOS's with 2 scum alive, you would think that he would do something other than "let's just chainlynch these two players who were the weakest of my 4 FOSs" tbh.
nsg kind of had some poor associatives w/ volxen I think. nauci is possible scum I guess. eragon's hard to tell because I think he's forcing his reads here as either alignment. still need to consider tor/tw/dunn I guess but again doesn't really feel like mafia are threatened in this gamestate-
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