Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]

[GuiltyLion]

No rvs. Only Seriousness.

y'all beat me to it this time!

I can't read hydras if at least one of the heads doesn't sign

it's page 2 and I'm already confused on what head is posting what



VOTE: morph the cat

I don't like this post, it doesn't suggest that you're actually trying to figure out which head is which, and if you're confused you could just ask instead of using it as a motivation for a vote

VOTE: Shirou

[GuiltyLion]

If you won't make an effort to distinguish the heads/who's talking, do not ever expect me to do that job for you.

hmm maybe I should have read this post first

but why so annoyed at the idea of trying to do it? it might be annoying, but don't you kinda need to try to do that work if you want better odds of sorting them correctly?

[GuiltyLion]

whom among us has not spent hours pouring through fferyllt's wiki page searching for clues to the mysteries of life

oh god it's poring through not pouring through ohhh god i misspoke in front of everyone just eliminate me now

anyways i would probably scumread myself for this opening because i'm not being serious despite there arguably being readable content from people but i honestly didn't really get anything out of it so RVS and being a weirdo is what you get from me instead for now

hahaha, I would be slightly surprised if you were scum here with this post now

I feel like even in the case scum!NSG opened a game without getting into "sorting" (either because you didn't feel like it or because you didn't know what to say), I think rather than joke about it and bring attention to the fact you would ask about small stuff or something...

hm

perhaps I'm reading too much into this though

don't like this either

[GuiltyLion]

also morph when have you (collectively) ever liked my early game posts

last time we played in that Dedede fusion game I remember us arguing for the vast majority of it, D1 for sure at least

it's prob gonna be the same thing again here

[GuiltyLion]

I used to tell everyone my scum game isn't that good but I've decided in 2022 I'm going to stop doing that and instead demand everyone fear/respect my scumgame

I reread my White Flag ISO a few weeks back and it was like way better than I remember it feeling at the time

but the good news for most of you is that I rolled town here!

[GuiltyLion]

hmmm Shriou, how excited would you say you are to play this game? How much forum mafia experience do you have ultimately?

Hey PA! I am not sure, having just spent several weeks dealing with her scum game I'm hoping to feel it out tone/vibewise if she's different. I don't have a great sense of Ydra meta but I guess if she's town I'd expect her to work a tiny bit harder than she just did in the Dance game to show some solvey thought processes?

[GuiltyLion]

If a hydra doesn't have at least one head signing their posts but was against being treated as a more unified entity, they would be basically delegating all the work/effort of making their slot readable onto other players when they could solve half of the problem spending one or two extra seconds on every post. It doesn't feel...correct.

I guess I can buy this as a principled stance, if you aren't going to say it's AI to sign/not-sign posts

we might just have a different opinion on what people owe us as players, I kinda feel at the end of the day it's always my responsibility to do my best to read people accurately regardless of what they give me or how much they cooperate. I feel I don't grow as a mafia player if I blame people for things that make me misread them

[GuiltyLion]

I thought you came off townier than the Amazonian Legends hydra, it seemed like their play was more centered on appealing to you than vice versa, but I don't know if I have fully formed Takes on it yet since there's always gonna be some level of inherent weirdness in how much experience/familiarity you all collectively have with each other and how it needs to be acknowledged/addressed up front regardless of your alignment combination. Honestly for D1 I might just defer to how you two hydras each sort eachother but I'll jump in if something feels off to me

[GuiltyLion]

...really? i had the opposite take and thought amazonian was townier because of the 'challenge' or threat they presented in their first posts.

like morph is probably the most boppable player(s) around at the moment and when you combine that with familiarity it's pretty uh... bold to make your first interaction "if you try to push us we WILL get you killed next day by virtue of our death" which doesn't really seem conciliatory at all but more like "fuck with us and regret it"

which, if there are people around that know you, seems like a bad idea to call attention to that sort of thing instantly.

I dunno, my take is that if it's the kinda thing you think you would do as town then it's the kind of thing you need to bluster about similarly as scum, and they wasted basically no time whatsoever immediately trying to establish "scumreading me is a scumclaim from you" which just felt a lil over the top for how early it was and how they initiated it. Like I said though, if it's out of the ordinary and potentially scum-indicative from them I'd expect morph to pick up on that and so I want to weigh their opinion a bit more than my own, it could entirely just be me as a third party not understanding the nature of their relationship with eachother

[GuiltyLion]

I don't think I have any actual concerns with Shirou now that he's followed up on stuff and I don't really scumread anyone else actively posting so far

VOTE: numberQ
what's this button do

[GuiltyLion]

aaaaahhh Fumuki eh, if you are scum you definitely shouldn't have told me that

[GuiltyLion]

I thought you came off townier than the Amazonian Legends hydra, it seemed like their play was more centered on appealing to you than vice versa, but I don't know if I have fully formed Takes on it yet since there's always gonna be some level of inherent weirdness in how much experience/familiarity you all collectively have with each other and how it needs to be acknowledged/addressed up front regardless of your alignment combination. Honestly for D1 I might just defer to how you two hydras each sort eachother but I'll jump in if something feels off to me

I know you had a conversation about part of this, but can you explain what you mean by appealing to?

It felt like you had a goal of establishing that you were going to scumread them if they scumread you, and your posts demonstrated that intention, whereas their opening was more just reacting to your entry.

"appealing" isn't the best word, I don't mean "appealing" in a literal sense, but I mean "appealing" in the sense that your posts were proactively designed around sending a message to them - does that make sense?

[GuiltyLion]

The interaction between Tejate and Ceph from 238 on is pinging me. 238 itself does strike me as a lot of nothing that

could

be scum indicative. Ceph calling him out on it though, for some reason I didn't like it even though I generally agreed with the sentiment. And overall I feel like Tejate is coming out of that back and forth looking towny, and Ceph null-scum.

This was my impression too. Ceph is giving me major "SE pushing on a mislimmable Newbie in the Newbie Queue" vibes

I townread Tejate

[GuiltyLion]

so 238 essentially just says "hey look everyone i have handwritten notes" since there is no actual reason for it to exist.

this post in particular

I could definitely imagine it being town in Ceph's spot trying to pressure a questionable slot, but it's just ever so slightly too aggressive for me. like I can see where Ceph is coming from calling out that the "notes" comment is a bit LAMISTy, but it's not too hard for me to imagine a town!Tejate writing the post and thinking it might be useful, he feels genuine to me

[GuiltyLion]

actually though I am thinking fua's jump in is worse than Ceph's push

I townread Tejate, but I can imagine Ceph being town misfiring on him. I think if that was a T-T spat, fua's play vibes like scum looking for a distraction outside the scrutiny their own slot is receiving, and leveraging Tejate/Ceph to do it

VOTE: fua

[GuiltyLion]

implosion and nQ get major towncred for mindmelds

and I kinda townread Ydrasse so far too

[GuiltyLion]

Ceph is giving me major "SE pushing on a mislimmable Newbie in the Newbie Queue" vibes

?? i'm not even pushing anyone

I was referring to the pressure on Tejate when I say "pushing on" (not "pushing")

[GuiltyLion]

anyway I'm a lil too high to be playing and my partner put Cool Runnings on so I'm gonna watch that for a bit and be back and play more later

[GuiltyLion]

actually though I am thinking fua's jump in is worse than Ceph's push

I townread Tejate, but I can imagine Ceph being town misfiring on him. I think if that was a T-T spat, fua's play vibes like scum looking for a distraction outside the scrutiny their own slot is receiving, and leveraging Tejate/Ceph to do it

VOTE: fua

Yes, I want a distraction from my own slot, so instead of enlisting my buddies to do something or waiting my turn, I just hop in balls-out into a pre-existing feud right after people express suspicion of me, because I'm eager to get away from the pressure of zero votes. You have solved the case very early into day 1. I'm not sure what you think my level of experience is or how well-versed I am in how to play this game, but this isn't it chief.

this post is not a good look, my vote stays

you feel extremely defensive, leans on sarcasm extra thick to try to imply that voting/scumreading you is dumb, and is the implication here supposed to be that scum you would never hop into any feud? How else would scum find things to push on or reasons to scumread people?

Where did the "solved the case" nonsense come from? Did my post give you the impression I felt I had "already solved"? Why?

[GuiltyLion]

you people sl'd fua for a little airheadedness in their opening posts?
might as well tie *me* to the stake right now then

really though what I see from their iso is that they're going for more of a conversationalist playstyle rather than an essayist one.

do you townread fua?

[GuiltyLion]

I just have a soft spot for people who correctly discern my alignment, I suppose.

I thought you claimed to be an experienced mafia player? You know if you are town, some scum will attempt to townread you and pocket you, right?

[GuiltyLion]

I can see implosion and GL as a scum pairing.

is this because of any specific interactions between us, or just because we are both voting you

[GuiltyLion]

Mostly just that I wouldn’t be so stupid as to directly do what you’re saying. If people you think are scum are trying to pocket me then I must be town.

I'm not saying anyone is trying to pocket you (necessarily), just pointing out that you don't seem to be considering it. If you are town I would expect you to be considering it. like if I did know for a fact you were town, then for me redtea stock is almost certainly tanking hard, yet you townread them for ?? reasons

[GuiltyLion]

Or at the very least the conclusion they arrived at makes much more sense for a townie actually trying to solve the game than yours.

Do you honestly believe townies should see you as town by now? why? what things have you done that scum you can't do? Is your respect for your own scum game that low?

and I want to point out to you, they didn't even arrive to a conclusion on your alignment, they just said your playstyle was "conversationalist". That doesn't show me a solving mind that has stakes in the game

[GuiltyLion]

you also tried to change the subject immediately when I pointed out my reasoning to try to latch onto weak spur of the moment reads.

when did I do this? I honestly don't know what you're referring to

[GuiltyLion]

What do you make of Tejate’s point that people are trying to tie him and Ceph together? Because you certainly pushed that note when you voted for me. Why can’t you be trying to pocket Tejate by going against popular opinion and TRing him?

I do think anyone claiming to tie Cephrir and Tejate together would be making a mistake, yeah.

You're not wrong that I made some assumptions and suggested a narrative. I don't have any hard data so I offered a hypothetical that made sense to me and pushed it to see what would happen

I'm not trying to pocket to Tejate cause I'm town, but it's certainly not unreasonable for someone to suspect me of doing that, and if that's what you believe you should argue for it

[GuiltyLion]

Also ignoring 398 in favor of continuing the redtea discussion. I have a townlean on him for now based on a quick and instinctive D1 readslist. Deal with it.

ok

VOTE: redtea

[GuiltyLion]

Which is what you did by saying they’re in a feud that I was trying to stoke the flames of.

I didn't say you tried to stoke the flames of it? You DID jump in and voted a player who was already fighting another player, and I could imagine scum in your spot choosing to do that. I never argued or suggested that you were trying to flame the Tejate/Cephrir fight from the sidelines, moreso I thought you were trying to capitalize on creating an environment where Ceph/Tejate might be dualing wagons

I was just wondering because you have particularly circular logic in that part of your argument against NSG and redtea applies to you as well.

I'm sure I do things at time that will look suspicious to other players, however I have the good fortune of knowing my own alignment so I don't have to sort myself for the intentions behind what I'm doing.

If you're confused about why I'm doing what I'm doing, or if you want me to look at NSG or redtea, you can do that. I'm not really interested in proving myself town to you at this stage

[GuiltyLion]

I mean, you don’t really have any progression on Tejate and the first time you mention him you say he’s a solid townread with zero reasoning. Which seems less believable to me than someone trying to consider a different perspective.

I don't tend to explain why I'm townreading people I feel it's important to do so. I want to see who comes to the same conclusion on Tejate as I did and whether they have their own reasons. I said he feels sincere to me and felt that was sufficient, if you doubt that you can ask for more information

[GuiltyLion]

I will say this though, frankly, your reasons for townreading redtea suck and you should re-evaluate there. Again, they didn't take any real stance on your alignment, just buddied up to you while offering a generic vague statement about your playstyle that has nothing to do with your alignment

[GuiltyLion]

In the same post you say that Ceph is misguided in his targeting of Tejate and simultaneously saying that I’m leveraging the two of them to escape pressure. How is it wrong to categorize this as tying them together and why do you say that I was trying to start dueling wagons with a single naked vote? You still haven’t addressed my point that my SR of Ceph was completely unrelated to the Tejate interaction and that I responded to him because I was being explicitly mentioned and misrepresented.

dude are you understanding the conditional/hypothetical nature of that post or not

I said "I can

IMAGINE

Ceph being town misfiring on him"

because I had just said I was pinged a bit by Ceph's aggression, but then I thought about it more, thinking about how the last time I saw Ceph as scum he was laid back and not this aggressive, and thought "you know it's totally possible Ceph is just wrongTown here"

and then I said, "suppose Tejate/Ceph is T-T, what would scum!fua do", and I thought finding a reason to vote Ceph would be a perfectly logical play from you there, so I wanted to pressure you on it

none of this is me asserting like 'yeah, definitely this is

exactly

what's happening', it's me thinking about a possible framework for the game and trying to fit it onto you and see what you do.

I know you have ~ reasons ~ for SRing Ceph, but frankly I think it's easy to fake a reason to scumread Ceph, that doesn't matter as much to me right now. I can imagine town!you or scum!you having that reason to vote him.

[GuiltyLion]

everyone keeps talking about me and tejate having a fight and i don't really feel like that's a thing that actually happened

I literally couldn’t care less about what happened between you and Tejate and I’m saying the interaction wasn’t a factor like GL claimed.

I didn't say it was a factor for a vote, that's what you're not connecting here. I was thinking about what was happening gamestate wise, not what reasons you did or didn't give for your vote.

[GuiltyLion]

like fua, I assume that if you are scum, you are capable of fabricating a fake reason to vote somebody when you want to vote them.

do you not share that own assumption about yourself?

[GuiltyLion]

fua have you ever seen someone vote or fos you and go “gosh, I’m town but their reasoning here sure is solid”?

I mean, several other people in this game have said that it’s understandable if people scumread them for (X) reason. So if your point is that town always thinks that reasoning against them is bad then that’s clearly not true and also a weak argument to begin with.

that's... not even close to what i'm saying? my point is you seem especially acerbic toward people that have expressed suspicion of you. I literally asked you one question and then emptyvoted you and you're calling me your tied biggest scumread and speculating about who I'm scum with. It seems like a bit of an overreaction.

do you think the "acerbic"ity is scummy? I'm townreading it, I don't know if scum!fua would be this aggressive if they knew they were full of shit, I am getting a vibe that they're just a defensive person

[GuiltyLion]

If you think it’s equally likely for town me and scum me to have that reason to vote for him then why assume it’s alignment-indicative and cast your vote for me in the first place?

to create content and pressure you

and AGAIN, the REASONING is not why I voted you so much as just the fact that you chose that point in time to vote Ceph at all

[GuiltyLion]

just vote redtea who already functionally did that

[GuiltyLion]

hey y'all, I'm here and about to read up, I should be around on/off tonight for quite some time too so hit me up if you want ~ real time interactions ~

[GuiltyLion]

We both have thoughts about GL's play here vs that game, but they're still in the amorphous zone.

if they ever exit the amorphous zone, I'd love to hear them

[GuiltyLion]

There's a whole fua vs GL exchange in there that I don't have my thoughts sorted on yet. At multiple times throughout reading it I thought both players were either alignment. I kind of want to just throw it in the TvT bin and be done with it but that feels like a mistake.

why would that feel like a mistake?

I don't like the vibe of this post - kinda feels like you're hesitant to really dig into the spat we had and also you don't want to commit to a trajectory/read where we both come out of it harder for you to push

[GuiltyLion]

At a stage where people are starting to put out reads and leans, even tentative ones, here Ceph is giving a reason why he might not be able to. And then of course, he does not for the rest of his ISO. This is also +scum - he's been in several interactions and debates, but his only takeaway is that "everyone is scum"?

Do you think scum is more likely to go for an "everyone is scum" approach? I think scum are more likely to hand out some early townreads to try to get towncred in return. Ceph certainly doesn't seem interested in making allies this game

[GuiltyLion]

If ydrasse is scum and we're not just being paranoid, then GL's easy townread there after the dancegame becomes a point of great interest.

I think this is kinda backwards, wouldn't me easily townreading Ydrasse be more suspicious if she is town? Why would I hand out a barely-explained, easy townread to a buddy? I feel like a broken record repeatedly saying I don't do weak interactions with my buddies, I generally want to go to great lengths to look like I'm either disassociated by way of buddying them or disassociated by way of fighting with them.

[GuiltyLion]

repeatedly saying across games*, that is

[GuiltyLion]

I really like Ydrasse's numberQ push and general page 24-25 posting, definitely feeling good about a townread there

@Ydrasse, I really don't think I put as much focus on Shirou as you're saying I did, until very recently when we argued over his questioning of Tejate. My "backing off" was more a function of my Ceph SR implying a Shirou TR, not as much based on my misunderstanding of his logic. And misunderstanding or no I still don't

really

see how that line of questioning could have lead him to a townlean, regardless of alignment. You're acting like I can only question my scumreads.

I don't think Ydrasse is

acting

(also an odd word choice, for the record) like you can "only" question your scumreads, she's just highlighting that it's weird to question slots you're otherwise townreading, your Shirou questioning seemed like it should have purpose to it but then it just evaporated. It's easy to imagine that being scum doing fake-solving as opposed to town doing real, intentional solving. I don't like the way you're framing this last sentence here, like do you not understand how your questions towards Shirou seem contradictory/inconsistent with your mindset that scum!Ceph is pocketing town!Shirou? Even if you are town, I don't think it'd be a hard point to understand

[GuiltyLion]

What do you see as significantly different about her play here vs the first couple calendar days of that game? And why is any difference +town?

I don't think it's fair to contrast this game with that game too much because the setups are so different, first phase of dance game is all about getting a dance partner and it's a lot harder to really vote/pressure scumreads, especially as a lady

but I will say the difference I'm seeing is that Ydrasse seems genuinely a lot more invested in parsing out people's mindset behind their takes, I liked that she challenged me on the early conclusion I drew about your hydra having a townier opening than AL, I like that she's digging into numberQ's commentary on Shirou. It's not an ironclad reason to locktown Ydrasse, like she's certainly a capable scum player, but overall the sense I get from her scum game - especially how she played Dance - is that she leans heavily on appearing tonally town, chill vibes, wanting to seem like she's not too survivalist or too tryhard, etc, whereas I get the sense the purpose of her posts so far here is less about being

perceived

any kind of way and more doing real digging into things she doesn't like or doesn't understand. All this is D1 with no flips so heavy grain of salt, but that's the distinction I'm feeling

[GuiltyLion]

Who did scum read fua again? GL? I wonder what their opinion on this is.

my back and forth with fua gave me a solid townread on fua and it's been further reinforced by their play since then

I have no interest at all in a fua lim currently

[GuiltyLion]

Her vote on numbers kinda gave me that vibe, which is why I was pushing her earlier. The red-alert feel has dissipated, though.

I think probably a disconnect here is I don't see the numbers vote as an especially Big Move. I do feel you on her liking a big play, but I think the end goal of those big plays is again to

be townread

, I don't get the same vibe from her here. though I can understand your perspective, if you think that vote is likely to be townread then I can see the thought process

[GuiltyLion]

voting redtea feels like a waste if they’re not active but their entrance was meh

if redtea is scum, wagoning them could put the buddies in a harder spot

[GuiltyLion]

do better

why do you scumread me again

let's work it out

[GuiltyLion]

I'd be annoyed but it's not like there's a shortage of viable scum candidates atm.

Ceph, where's your GL scumlean coming from?

i'm expecting town-GL to produce compelling analysis and be a town leader, and i haven't seen that so far

oh, this

it's coming! once I finish eating dinner and reading and thinking I think I'll do a reads wallpost

[GuiltyLion]

My take is that we shouldn't lim any of the inactive slots today. This isn't a game suffering for activity, so unless we think all 3 scum are lurking then I don't see an upside to basing wagons on activity.

this is a bizarre take

lurkier slots are generally more likely to be scum, and if they're town they're limbait town that's better served getting out of the way

the ideal scenario is to lim a lurky slot whose content has been scummy when they HAVE been here, like redtea

I wouldn't advocate for NSG because I don't think any of her stuff has been all that scummy and I think with time / if she comes back, she'll put some effort into the thread

but I think advocating to

not

lim any inactive slots is weird on the whole

in general, it's easier for scum to find reasons to bullshit pushes on active townies than total lurk townies too

[GuiltyLion]

And let's say we do wagon inactive scum. Then the rest of the team has carte blanche to bus their buddy and get sweet towncred. Whereas with an active slot, bussing is a lot harder and there can be clearer lines drawn after the flip irrespective of alignment.

this I am also not liking, it feels like motivated reasoning

it's really hard to toe the line of bussing an inactive slot while not slipping that you know they're going to flip red, in part because their content is so sparse

if you have an active buddy, and you have daytalk, it's way easier to do a huge theatrical production, exactly because you're both around and invested in getting people to think the way you want them to think about your slots

Scum are often too hesitant or too eager to bus their deadweight inactive partners, giving lots of potential content to glean information from, so I just disagree with this entirely

[GuiltyLion]

yeah all of Tejate's posting on 34 re: this discussion is Very Good Posteing

[GuiltyLion]

I wasn't saying to lim them right this moment

[GuiltyLion]

who

Any Inactive Slots

[GuiltyLion]

but using you as a motivating example

[GuiltyLion]

As scum I’ve argued that voting out inactives as scum is a good thing because they don’t contribute and it removes places for scum to hide. On the surface this seems like a town-beneficial argument to make, but ultimately a miselim is a miselim that puts scum a step closer to winning— especially in a setup where every town is a PR.

mm, the point about PRs is ok maybe, but is a limbaity town slot with a Night 4 Cop claim going to be one we decide to then keep around for 5 days?

If we lim an inactive slot that flips town, I'd be all for scrutinizing the people that vote it. I'm not saying it wouldn't be beneficial to scum to take a miselim on a lurker when they can. but

if that miselim is going to happen

, it's way better to happen D1 rather than D4. and I'm also mainly saying arguing that we shouldn't lim any inactive slots doesn't feel like a useful nor genuine thought... if there is an inactive scum slot, you're also just giving them a totally free pass to coast.

[GuiltyLion]

aight, reads time

Town: {fua, Shirou, Amazonian Legends, Tejate Raichu, Ydrasse}
Town Enough For Now: {Cephrir, implosion, morph}
Needs More Data: {NSG}
Would Lim: {numbersQ}
Would Lim With No Mercy: {redtea, imaginality}

I don't feel like I need to walk through reasoning on fua/Shirou, seems they're kinda universally townread by this point

Ydrasse I've kinda covered already in my back and forth with morph and my catch up, I don't think she's playing with an agenda, I was on the same page with her numbersQ suspicion, and I also kinda buy her lack of willingness to vote redtea as genuine, I think scum is a lil less likely to find reasons to not vote an inactive slot they claim to be scumreading/wanting to vote on the whole. that last point is the weakest, the bigger point in my mind is my sense of agreement with the times she really has dug into somebody in the game so far

Tejate, like I said earlier, bleeds earnest sincerity in his posts. I was maybe verryyyy slightly pinged by a bit of overexplainy selfconsciousness in 827, but then 830 and 836 immediately put that doubt to rest again

Amazonian was in the slightly more paranoid town tier until 846, I struggle to see that as a post that is likely to come from scum. I'm on board with the angles they've been taking this game by and large and the reads post in 821 is fairly consistent with my own view of the game and doesn't appear to be agenda-driven. I also place some weight on morph locktowning them, I think regardless of morph's alignment a locktown read there is generally ++townpoints for AL

the next tier I think it's entirely possible, if not likely, that there's a deep scum in there, but I don't have enough data to feel I have a good grip on who it would be, and I generally respect all three of their scumgames enough to not townread them as strongly as the first tier given their content so far. both morph and implosion have had a couple instances where I feel in sync with them and a couple instances where I'm a lil concerned they might be playing to an agenda or emulating what they think they'd do as town. Ceph does feel quite different to me than Shakespeare, a recent game I played with him as scum, here he's a lot more, grumpy, hostile, confrontational, I don't see him trying in any way to be townread and I feel he's got real stakes in the game this time. The only reason he's not a stonger TR is cause it's BadMeta to do a singular vibe comparison between Shakespeare and here - he might just have more time and WIM to effort better now - and I feel his suspicion has been not directed at the slots I'd actually want him to direct it at. Expecting me to be town leader is fine, but it's also kind of a weak reason to be voting me in particular at this stage when there's people posting posts like 713

NSG the main thing I want to say is I can understand where AL is coming from with the "let's stop posting so much" being a bit LAMISTy and inconsistent with her subsequent thread disappearance, but it's easy for me to imagine town!NSG doing that and I kinda liked the defense of fua in 266 so altogether just not enough for me to feel the needle has moved in either direction.

neither redtea nor imaginality have posted a single thought I think is more likely to come from town or something that feels like it's meant to do any real solving, and I definitely didn't like that massive imaginality reads wall, feels very much like a scum who missed the start of the game, doesn't have a footing, and trying to do one big reads post to keep scrutiny at bay. There's no vote, there's no pressure or serious attempt to open a dialogue with anybody, and the bit about "not remembering the case against GL" felt like it was meant to buddy me and it's decidedly not inquisitive in a Bad Way - town should be going back and trying to see who is voting me and why, if that's how they feel.

With respect to numbersQ, I have a few moments of doubt given his sustained presence in the main threads of the game and that his thought process seems to evolve fairly organically in response to people's pushes on him, or the mech discussion, but it's not especially hard for me to imagine it coming from a capable wolf. The thing that's been tanking him in my reads is kind of exactly what AL called out in 821 - feels like he's there to make comments or ~solve~ in the thread but none of it feels like it's actually amounting to a useful goal or moving the gamestate in a direction that numbersQ feels is protown. The inconsistency with his Shirou questioning that Ydrasse called out is a good example of this. His vote has been parked on Ceph but I don't see him engaging with any of Ceph's later content nor working to convince people to also vote there, instead his vote is just kinda languishing. And the whole "we shouldn't lim inactive slots" thing just feels like something scum decided they would say as town and came up with the justifications second, and I'd be especially suspicious of it if one of redtea or imaginality

were

to flip scum.

[GuiltyLion]

Town: {fua, Shirou, Amazonian Legends, Tejate Raichu, Ydrasse}
Town Enough For Now: {Cephrir, implosion, morph}
Needs More Data: {NSG}
Would Lim: {numbersQ}
Would Lim With No Mercy: {redtea, imaginality}

does it bother you at all that this is also approximately what you'd get if you sorted the PL by charisma (tejate being the main exception)? This is something I've been thinking about a lot more lately.

it does kinda, like I'm pretty much certain that the scumteam isn't exactly nQ/redtea/imaginality, but at the end of the day I'm looking for people D1 I don't feel like are solving and it's hard for me to have any town-feelings about the solving coming out of the bottom two slots. it's why I have the secondary town tier where they are, I could see them being scum doing enough to fool me at the moment. but I do feel pretty good about the top townreads

[GuiltyLion]

Or at least like, I don't want to rock any boats unless I feel like I have a read that

actually

has any substance to it and is not just some read I found on the ground somewhere, as my reads usually are.

do you consider voting me a boat-rock?

[GuiltyLion]

GuiltyLion, I know you said you don't "need to explain since it's a consensus read", but can you go a bit in-depth on your town read on me?

also what did you mean by this early on:

aaaaahhh Fumuki eh, if you are scum you definitely shouldn't have told me that

what's your opinion of my scum game?

I thought 341 is less likely to come from scum, you went and looked at a prior fua scumgame and found a post that I thought was pretty similar to their opening here. I have a pet tell I've been thinking about that scum

generally

don't do work to find meta reasons to scumread townies, because it's somewhat of an exercise in futility from the start if they know the alignment of the player isn't going to match the meta case they're going to try to make

You said at one point you'd vig me and I don't think you'd be wanting to pick a fight or catch my eye like that if you were scum and knew I am town, but maybe I think too highly of my own reputation

I thought you came across as townie in the back and forth with nQ in the 500s, and the extended paranoia on Tejate I think is less likely for scum to fake at a time when he's otherwise pretty widely townread by the thread, your limpool isn't far off from mine

that post you quoted, that was mostly a small joke to see if you'd react at all, the last game I remember playing with you you were scum and I feel like I remember tunneling you correctly when you were the last scum alive at like 7p or 5p. I think if this here is your scum game it's taken a giant leap, but I haven't played with you in years so I wouldn't say I have an up to date understanding of how you play scum and what you're capable of

[GuiltyLion]

This purely reactive post makes me think you're caught up and perfectly happy with the game state / not doing anything.

Right now I'm rereading morph and implosion in iso so I can answer AL's question about implosion.

As for the gamestate though, yeah.
-We're still like 10 days til deadline
-the game's active
-no danger of anyone I townread getting quicklimmed
-not worried that people aren't impressed by my posts so far as I expect to be able to change their view over the course of the day

I'm not 'not doing anything' but I don't feel the need to shake things up

you should be voting, at the very minimum

[GuiltyLion]

For instance he was about to do something I consider truly AI but people forcing him to engage them ruined it.

can you elaborate on this, though? what would be "truly AI" and how did people ruin it

[GuiltyLion]

Not Voting (6): imaginality, morph the cat, redtea, Tejate Raichu, Ydrasse, Shirou

hot take, not voting makes people harder to solve and gives less content to read them off of than the spectrum of activity/inactivity

I'd like everyone not voting to explain in their next post if they'd be willing to vote redtea and why or why not

[GuiltyLion]

I'm not that willing to vote redtea right now anymore and if everyone accepts Morph hiding their meta tells I hope I can stay quiet on the reasons for this too (although I'm not sure it's a "correct meta tell" but I don't want to explain what about their posts I'm reading them off since I don't think we're gonna get a lot of content from them, so this is the unique way I found of seemingly reading their slot properly).

I'm not town leaning the slot but I don't think their content are as bad as their entrance.

I guess Shirou already did this so he's excused

this is completely useless to me though, for the record, can't work with this at all if you're going to say you're not willing to vote for 'sekret reasons' yet you also don't actually townread them still (??)

you should always be willing to vote slots you don't townread

[GuiltyLion]

[

numberQ's

] vote has been parked on Ceph but I don't see him engaging with any of Ceph's later content nor working to convince people to also vote there, instead his vote is just kinda languishing.

I also think this is one of the most indicative things I called out in my giant reads post and I want more people to think about / engage with this as well

numberQ is not behaving like someone who still thinks Ceph is the best vote for today

[GuiltyLion]

I'm still in favor of a potential nQ flip myself, something fua obviously disagrees with so I'm not sure how viable an actual wagon would be

you'll never know if you don't try! I'd be willing to join a nQ wagon if it got traction

however I have a few things that make me think I could be wrong in scumreading nQ whereas redtea has yet to fire on my towndar even a single time

I think we have different opinions on the value of voting, I don't see any harm in "haphazardly voting" at all, I think it generates content and builds wagons and is fundamentally pro-town in that way.

[GuiltyLion]

I'd like to try a different approach here, since the game is much slower paced. Games here last for multiple weeks, rather than like 20-30 minutes.

what do you think is the advantage of withholding your vote?

[GuiltyLion]

I am indifferent about voting for redtea. I don't especially want to end the day yet.

I'm not sure GL was suggesting we end the day right this second.

GL, could you elaborate on what exactly you meant by wanting to vote redtea? I assumed you meant closer to the end of our timer, as opposed to starting a wagon right now?

I want to start a wagon right now, but I don't want the day to end. Why is everyone acting like voting somebody is now a signal that you're ready for the day to end? Did I miss a change in sitemeta or something?

When the game is in a weak state like this (multiple people not voting, no serious wagons) it makes it really easy for scum to blend in. They can just post words without having to do anything or commit to anything. I like it when wagons get up to E-3, E-2, E-1, even if I'm not ready for an actual hammer, even if the person being wagoned isn't my top choice. It means people who are on the wagon are more committed to who they're voting - and if they back off at that point, it often says a lot. It means people who

aren't

on the wagon are confronted with a question - will they ultimately support this wagon? Or are they going to speak up against it? Who do they think should be the center of attention instead? And it means the person

being

wagoned is now staring down a Very Real possibility that they might die today.

The current gamestate provokes none of these interesting questions and doesn't put any pressure on anybody to do anything or take any stances. It's easy to write your opinions about a post or an ISO. It's a lot harder to put your money where your mouth is. That's why wagons are good. They create stakes that demand real positions and real commitment.

[GuiltyLion]

[

numberQ's

] vote has been parked on Ceph but I don't see him engaging with any of Ceph's later content nor working to convince people to also vote there, instead his vote is just kinda languishing.

I also think this is one of the most indicative things I called out in my giant reads post and I want more people to think about / engage with this as well

numberQ is not behaving like someone who still thinks Ceph is the best vote for today

I don't feel much about this because I feel like my vote has been languishing all day, as a function of gamestate.

yeah, but you're at least shopping your vote around and showing a willingness to explore other votes. nQ hasn't done that

[GuiltyLion]

GL I'm against voting redtea right now because I think their posts are perhaps in a trajectory to get me to town lean them. they are null town for me at the moment after their last posts which was already an improvement over the null scum read I had on them for their entrance.

which posts are giving you a town impression?

[GuiltyLion]

I feel as though GL

has

to have said something really alignment indicative at some point by now based on the way in which he's interacted with the game but I really struggle to figure out what it'd be.

nah, my scum game in The Year of 2022 is so good that I cannot be safely townread for anything until the game is over

I am too sleepy to really play at the moment but I do get a lot of good vibes from all that there NSG content

tomorrow I'll probably think about our different takes on Ydrasse and figure out how much (if at all) I wanna rethink there or hash it out

in the meantime let's keep building this redtea wagon

[GuiltyLion]

hm actually though NSG I would like you to detail what you're seeing in numberQ that makes him town

[GuiltyLion]

also I dislike that redtea wagon. They're more likely than not town to me and even if you can't see their slot that way, they've barely been here. You're mostly voting them for inactivity and not having much content to go off rather than because they've been really "scummy". It feels like almost a RVS wagon...except on page 40-ish.

This isn't true, I legitimately scumread pretty much every redtea post and when I asked you which you townread and why, you have failed to answer. I'll go into it in more depth later when I'm not working and I have time, but acting like there isn't anything indicative in redteas play is badbadbad

This is a terrible thought process here and almost singlehandedly makes me think NSG is right about me being wrong to townread you

[GuiltyLion]

In fact this is almost exactly the same shit you pulled last time I played with you as scum when you tried to defend your buddy shaddowez

[GuiltyLion]

I'll ask you this in the meantime Shirou

If you are looking at the gamestate and think redtea is limbait town, who do you think are the scum capitalizing on it and positioning to miselim redtea, and why aren't you pushing them explicitly? You're grandstanding against the wagon but not using the wagon to inform your reads as far as I can tell

[GuiltyLion]

I am tired so I don't think I can get to everything I want to get to, but I'll try to at least engage on a couple points before I fall asleep, and really make a commitment to playing more tomorrow during the actual day

I asked what did you think about my slot after NSG told you that BEFORE I made the redtea posts that I knew you would dislike

eh I mean I thought it was a fair word of advice to be cautious, I had no idea you were nommed for a Don Corleone and I had previously thought you were kind of an easier to read player, so it made me want to re-evaluate on why I townread you but I hadn't, haven't, actually bothered to do that yet. I do still generally believe the reasons I have for townreading you, but probably I just shouldn't weight them quite as heavily

[GuiltyLion]

You need to decide whether you think I'm some skilled scum player like NSG is saying or if I'm still newbie scum that needs to openly defend their partners like that rather than doing counterwagons, theatre with the other buddy as distraction, or in summary any other more intelligent tactic.

What NSG is telling you about me and how you're implying you're considering my potential scum game are complete opposites.

I don't think this dichotomy is as strong as you're making it out to be

lots of scum will try to defend their partners, especially if they go about it in a very direct way they can try to act like that shows they

clearly

didn't know what redtea would flip (assuming they were to flip scum), which wouldn't be that hard for you to do here. The commonality across that old game and this one is that in both you are suggesting that the "easy" or "lazy" scumread on the less-active slot is too "easy" and therefore they're not scum, and that's a justification I Do Not Vibe With.

and in general, if you were to never defend your partners, that also becomes indicative, no? Anyone you defend as scum is then confirmed town? playing scum is like poker in that way, you need to mix up how you play from hand to hand so that you can't be read easily in every game. I don't ascribe to a one size fits all approach to mafia play, I think there are generally some patterns of behavior but individual game vibes/context also matters a lot and the most important thing with respect to this particular game is I can't fundamentally understand why you actually townread redtea, like at all, so it strikes me as a position that fulfills an agenda rather than one arrived at from honest belief

[GuiltyLion]

This isn't true, I legitimately scumread pretty much every redtea post and when I asked you which you townread and why, you have failed to answer. I'll go into it in more depth later when I'm not working and I have time, but acting like there isn't anything indicative in redteas play is badbadbad

is it going to be "they aren't solving the game so they are scum" style of scum pings/"reasons"?

if it is sorry I don't think that it will work on reading redtea at the moment with the amount of posts they have.

I can be wrong sure, but I don't think I'm though.

it's more than that but I'm not ready to case it just yet, too tired, will take a stab at it tomorrow

here's my retort question to you - since you keep dodging why you actually townread redtea - would you agree that the position you've taken on them was arrived at more because of how you want to sort/engage with everyone

else

, rather than actual town indicative behaviors in redtea's ISO? Because that's the only way I can make sense of your read as coming from town

[GuiltyLion]

If you think I'm that good as scum, surely this is very likely not a defense on a buddy, at most white knight attempt for some town cred later.

Or you didn't really think much of what NSG said before about my skill as scum and you think that this can easily be a me/redtea scum team and I'm simply making a sloppy play here?

last post on this, to kinda reaffirm my 1325, the first sentence here is WIFOMy. I don't know your alignment so it might just be a defense of a buddy, I can't rule that out. Saying you wouldn't defend a buddy like this is not an argument I can just accept at face value. And like I said earlier, I don't think it would be necessarily sloppy at this stage, I don't think it'd be too hard to play this off like you didn't know redtea was going to flip scum.

all that aside, I still think your overall play is holistically more likely town than not, like I don't think the S-S explanation is what's likely happening here, but you'd be better served dropping this self-defense and actually just convincing me why I should be seeing redtea as town. Tying yourself to them in this way is not really helping me at all and kinda making it about you and your reads rather than redtea

[GuiltyLion]

I wish I had more energy to explain it but imaginality's 1105 and 1116 really give me this emulating/fake vibe in how he talks about his reads. like the assertions about implosion downplaying his effort or his reads - they feel uncharitable and motivated solely to make implosion look bad, there's not any apparent consideration of the town!implosion explanation for those posts. and I'm definitely not a fan of the buddying vibe towards Tejate claiming he shouldn't be limmed because he's "fun" but then he's also a townlean as well? Like the order in which imaginality decided to say those things (1. he seems fun 2. here is why I think he's town) gives me vibes like imaginality decided he was going to say he was town

first

and then came up with the reasons for justifying it after the decision was made. if that makes any sense

[GuiltyLion]

numberQ

same question I asked to NSG - can you explain what it is in numberQ's ISO/play that lead you to a townread there? Apologies if you have explained that already and I just missed/forgot, feel free to just cite a post if so

[GuiltyLion]

implosion finally I've liked one of your posts

you're right about the observation about Imaginality's in that Guardian game vs here.

However, it's not just an observation you can find in the Guardian game. At least in the 3 more recent scum games from Imaginality, he felt the same way he has here.

I would rather not go too in-depth about what I noticed for future games sake but I guess I can if it's necessary, either way, the point is that Imaginality's play here seems to resemble a lot more his more recent scum games rather than town games.

If I had to summarize, I would say that town!Imaginality likes to get right into engaging people, pushing and sorting slots, but scum!Imaginality likes to explain his arguments and thought process to the audience (in this case, the town), to appear as someone that has been "busy" solving the game.

To me, imaginality here seems more worried and focused on trying to explain his thought processes and voice all his reads and suspicious than he is in focusing in a few slots that worry him the most. Even when he does focus on certain slots like for example the most recent "case" on implosion, it always feels like he's trying to justify his read on implosion than he is trying to push and engage implosion to clear his doubts about the slot.

I'm good with this

also implosion's posting since my last presence in the thread up to this Shirou post feels very town to me on the whole

I don't remember where everyone stands with implosion but he's definitely in my townpool now

[GuiltyLion]

Two things: first, I'd like to do this exercise once again since it seems like imaginality is going to be a very popular wagon. Let's make the assumption that right now, 2 non-voters vote for imaginality right now (which would be hammer) and he flips Doctor. Do you glean anything from this information? And what do you gain information wise if he flips mafia?

Also, is it necessary to really claim your night in this setup? I don't feel like it helps us very much at all.

mmm this is kind of a weird post

I don't know if it's weird enough to scumread, but I don't like it

I think I'd rather Tejate just like, share his own thoughts regarding potential 'information' from the flip rather than asking like a seminar style discussion for the class

and I think it's really hard to really meaningfully answer this until you have the imaginality flip in hand, like I could make theories but they'd just be theories at this stage, and it might give scum useful info as to how to go about leveraging this imiginality wagon to manipulate me or anybody else, especially in the worlds where imaginality is town

[GuiltyLion]

Anyways, if there's one thing we can at the very least agree on it's that I don't necessarily have an issue with ending the day. We have a lot of content, after all.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: imaginality

this feels

very

different than your attitude about not haphazardly voting like... not just a day or two ago? now you're fine with putting somebody at E-1?

[GuiltyLion]

ok I don't have any more energy in me for the last four pages, will return tomorrow, but I'm fine with the imaginality lim

I think if I whiffed on an early read it's probably Tejate, he seems very awkward around this wagon and I can't get over him going from "I am going to try not to vote haphazardly" to just suddenly deciding he's good with the day ending on imaginality basically 24 hours later

I think Shirou/implosion/AL/Ydrasse/fua is a fundamentally sound town core at the moment, I really like a lot of Shirou's posts re:imaginality and Tejate, and I think scum is going to have a hard time breaking into that townbloc even if there's capable scum in like Ceph or NSG who hasn't made any mistakes yet. and I don't even think that's likely I townread both of them still as well.

[GuiltyLion]

Sorry y'all for rewinding but I just started catching up on the pages I missed the other day and I want to zoom in on this post

This is probably the single most town thing they have posted in a while from my perspective.

Can you explain why you think that's a particularly townie post? I don't think it's especially hard for scum to ask somebody why they're townreading another player. Especially in worlds where redtea is town, there could be a potential scum motive in challenging people who are townreading redtea. So I'm curious to understand why you highlighted this as the "most town thing" they've done?

[GuiltyLion]

i suppose i would be interested in why he chose redtea specifically.

right so I finally have the time/energy to specifically go into what I didn't like in redtea's ISO

let me break it down:

330 - it seems a little odd to me to open by saying that 328 made you laugh while also claiming to have not read the game fully yet. There'd be missing context for what I was pushing fua for, no reads on fua/myself to interpret our interaction - like is that post still as funny if fua is scum trying to discredit me? just seemed to me like an odd entry in the game and something that's more likely to come from an informed perspective re:fua and I's alignments, rather than town who hasn't read up

331 is a bad post. redtea doesn't give any indication of whether they are townreading fua, all they do is strawman the reason for suspecting fua and push against that strawman, while joking about themselves. Vibes exactly to me like scum who want to make a buddy in fua and also get a joking foothold into the game. The "conversationalist" remark feels like fake analysis, again there's no evidence of a thought process regarding whether town or scum is more likely to be "conversationalist", no evidence of trying to reason about fua's alignment.

332 is also inconsistent with 331 - if redtea only read between posts 248 and 330, and didn't read the beginning of the game, how are they making comments about fua's entry or their ISO? Did redtea read fua in ISO but not the game? why?

879-882 reminds me of stuff I do as scum to try to make it seem like I don't have an agenda, giving one opinion then immediately reversing it. it was also just an immediate hasty misrepresentation of my position, redtea acted like I was demanding a lim immediately ("we have 12 days left") when I wasn't.

as for a general pattern of play remark, a lot of redtea's content is in response to stuff happening in the thread when they are here, which indicates that they're at least reading along at some points in the game, but redtea doesn't give any indication whatsoever of their reads or how they see the game until 1209. I don't see proactive effort to engage with people or an obvious direction redtea wants to go for lim or pressure. Very much gives me scum coasting and not giving information vibes

And then 1209 is a janky post in that the questions/thoughts section doesn't correlate to the reads at all, as far as I can tell. It's also weird to have a "can go" category (which presumably means scumreads), but then a "flip would help" category for Tejate/Cephrir - what's the difference between "can go" and "flip would help", like is "flip would help" null? Why is that different than the "???" tier? I don't think that part of their post is inherently scum indicative but it sure doesn't show me a solvey/uninformed mindset, it's missing indicators of a town mindset that show me how the reads relate to each other or how they were arrived at.

[GuiltyLion]

As for GL, I didn't say it was necessarily super town. Just townie relative to everything else I read over. I like the question itself (why townread redtea?) combined with the context (we had just got done with a discussion about limming lurky players because we can't read them well). It does seem rather odd for fua to come out of that discussion with a TR of all things.

I feel like you're not really getting at the heart of my question here, like sure, you like the question, and fua TRing redtea was weird - but that doesn't really answer why morph can't write that post and ask that question as scum? It doesn't strike me as a hard or unlikely angle to take as scum, and your answer doesn't really give me any insight into why you believe it is

[GuiltyLion]

Don't you think if redtea was scum here it would be kinda...too obvious? They show up here, everyone pressures they to do something through shading but they still don't come up with much. I'm not saying "if scum reading a slot is too easy it means they can't be scum". No, there's players that are rather "obvious scum", but I don't think redtea specifically would have this sort of ISO as scum when I took a look through his past/recent scum games.

As ydrasse linked, in a recent town game their ISO felt somewhat similar to here, and they were just town miseliminated on D2. Perhaps I can't help but draw connections between his miselimination and the reasons people voted him there, and their play/people's reads on him here.

I dunno, I try not to out think myself on D1. If someone hasn't posted anything that makes me think they're less likely to be scum, they don't get out of my limpool. I'd be interested in exploring the meta point more through - didn't Ydrasse say town!redtea did ~ more ~ in that town game they referenced? And what were the reasons people gave for limming redtea in those games?

[GuiltyLion]

would you agree that the position you've taken on them was arrived at

more because of how you want to sort/engage with everyone else

, rather than actual town indicative behaviors in redtea's ISO? Because that's the only way I can make sense of your read as coming from town

GL can you expand on this too when you get the chance

basically FMPOV you are a good candidate for a wagon because you've barely given any engagement with the game to read you off of and I did have issues with the posts you

had

posted, I don't see how someone can genuinely see towntells in your ISO at the point where Shirou said he had you as town. I can understand "bad candidate for lim", but I can't understand a townread.

So when Shirou says he has a townread on you but he doesn't want to explain why, I have to imagine the best town!explanation for his behavior is just to test how people react to his defense/TR of you. It's not a situation where I can be like "yeah, I can understand why Shirou townreads redtea and defending them", especially if he's not explaining it in a manner meant to convince anyone else that he's right.

[GuiltyLion]

The perspective slip thing doesn't really jive to me (I don't see why redtea-scum would lie about having read less of the thread than they have, that doesn't exactly make them look good).

I don't think I said redtea was lying about how much they've read of the thread? The point was more I don't understand how they could genuinely engage with things in the way that they did, if they hadn't read the thread.

[GuiltyLion]

I'm still on board with potential imaginality wagon, but I should have been considerate of the people who had yet to catch up. Especially since two of those people were ones I didn't have public reads on yet.

just for the record, I don't actually think the E-1 is bad in and of itself

I just don't understand how your mindset about it reversed so much in so little time

if you're implying you were in a different ~headspace~ when you did that, it actually kinda makes a lil more sense to me

[GuiltyLion]

What were your mindmeld congruencies with Implosion?

The reads/takes in these posts:

nQ townish imo.

I don’t think I like this interaction. You feel too overexplainy.

The phrasing of this post is weird. What do you hope to get from Ceph by telling him that he is too overexplainy?

I also don't really think tejate raichu is scummy as of now and there's a couple things he's said that I think are at least a little towny.

[GuiltyLion]

The situation calls for it so I'm gonna summarize my positive feelings about redtea here:

I've read at least 2 or 3 of their scum games, and 2 or 3 of their most recent town games.

In a nutshell, I think you're all underestimating scum!redtea here.

scum!redtea has no problems engaging people with questions, replying to questions, and coming up with reads/feelings about other slots.

Almost no scum does in fact have trouble with those things. They are

easy and simple

things to do for anyone with moderate experience in this game. You just get used to it. The people that have trouble doing it are more often than not due to a lack of motivation than lack of ability.

I kinda dislike their "lock-town" on fua because it feels kinda hard to believe there's that much difference between town!fua vs scum!fua having scrolled some of their games myself, but still, they are having trouble coming up with reads, and I do think that even if it sounds scummy at face-value, I believe scum!redtea would have no problem coming up with them, therefore making me believe that their behavior in this game is more likely town than not even if it sounds dubious.

I agree with the general point of this post that scum!redtea is capable of playing better than here, sure, but the question you're not answering is why isn't town!redtea playing better here?

like, yeah, it's not inherenly scum-indicative to be behind in a game or not doing a whole lot, but it's not town indicative either. You're telling people it's not scum!indicative but giving no reasoning as for why that means we should townread redtea instead. at best redtea's a limbaity-if-town null slot that I'd rather just get out of the way early if this is how they're going to play all game. even a cop inno on redtea would be less valuable than a cop inno on other slots. That's also why I don't agree with paranoia limming a power town today in this set up, the cop checks are better served on hard-to-read-but-really-useful-if-town players rather than giving-no-content players.

[GuiltyLion]

My opinion on redtea right now is annoyingly similar to Shirou's: they have the aesthetics in my mind of a slot that could easily be either alignment but is prone to being misread as scum if town. I feel like imaginality is a better shot for actual scum - to compare the two, they both have been on the sidelines of the day, but whenever imaginality comes into the thread it feels to me like he's coming in for the sake of giving stances or looking like he has them, and not figuring out stances. Whereas from redtea I don't even get the vibe that they care about appearing to have stances. Basically I don't get the vibe of caring about appearances from redtea. To be fair if they are scum this is probably the point of why they've been playing this way. I think it's the way imaginality's wallish posts have worked that gives me this impression, whereas yeah you point out redtea's wallreadpost is sort of all over the place/weird and it's like, idk, I feel like they'd want to flesh it out a bit more as scum. Kind of like what Shirou was saying of people maybe underestimating redtea's scumgame, I feel like redtea's game as scum here would have to be essentially very lazy/sloppy because of the pressure they've been under whereas as town I think it's easier to see their posting as like, someone just not all that invested/engaged in the game yet.

I do think I'm coming around on imaginality potentially being a better lim for exactly these reasons, I'm certainly not townreading him either

however I think I mainly just don't think redtea is all that townie and I don't vibe with Shirou insisting that they are - I get preferring imaginality, I'm not against that, but even on an imaginality scumflip I'd probably still want attention/pressure on redtea the next day all the same

sloppy/lazy play comes from scum quite frequently. I've seen people make essentially this same argument when people lurk, play sloppy, flake out, it's not a good reason to townread somebody imo. I don't assume town is more likely to be disengaged from the game than scum, and that's what it feels like you and Shirou are assuming with this logic

[GuiltyLion]

but I think if even with the reply above you can't see my point GL, I guess we'll have to agree to disagree about redtea.

It's not like I don't see your point though. I know what I'm reading redtea off can be walking in a slippery rope in some cases, however having seen some of their town/scum games...I really do believe this tell is a decent way of reading them and that's it. (at least in this game, in future ones this won't apply anymore I suppose).

Even if you don't agree with it, can you see my point though?

I don't think my goal here needs to be convincing you to give up on redtea for the rest of the game at all, I think I would be quite satisfied in simply persuading you that Imaginality may be the better D1 elimination.

yeh, this is fine, I see your point and I'm fine with opting for imaginality instead

once I get an updated VC I'll probably vote there

I think I'm hurting for scumreads but that can be a D2 problem

I read implosion's town case for numberQ and it seemed alright, I do vibe with numberQ feeling like he doesn't care too much about how he's being perceived, but it did lean a bit heavily on that prior Guardians game and I have not bothered to read that game

if either redtea/imaginality are town then someone here is definitely a deeper scum fucking with the gamestate but I don't think I really have a solid suspect as for who it is

also, I totally vibe with pretty much all of Tammyhead of AL's reads, Tammy is seeing the game pretty much exactly as I am seeing it

[GuiltyLion]

If there's anything anyone feels I should pay particular attention to, let me know.

I most of all want your takes on redtea, imaginality, and everything Shirou is saying in favor of imaginality over redtea

[GuiltyLion]

At the same time this makes your claim a bit more believable, it also kinda reeks of TMI by how much you trust that Ydrasse was telling the truth there, which may be a sign you knew she was town, because as scum it's easier to believe what comes from townies is just the truth.

why does scum!imaginality decide to stick with the whole "I'm a night 2 doc" pseudo-counterclaim as an argument to push/suspect Ydrasse anyway?

It's the main thing that makes me think he might be town, I don't think scum would decide in advance to fakeclaim that particular night/role and use it as a reason to push someone who isn't at all likely to get limmed here, just doesn't feel like a natural play for scum

[GuiltyLion]

I'm also wary of Tejate proclaiming he was reconsidering me not for the reasons whoever said earlier about Tej being my scumbuddy, but rather with me being town, I see it as a way where Tej can look like he's unsure about my flip without doing anything to push another wagon and giving himself room to rejoin my wagon.

That said, I don't think the timing of Tej's reconsidering post is as suspicious as people are making out though (Shirou in #1494 and maybe someone else earlier?). Like Tej said it's not unreasonable to want to reread someone even in the absence of new content, considering it felt like the game was taking a breather at that moment.

Also, Shirou's argument that Tejate is trying to divert from me falls apart when I flip town. So to my mind there are three possibilities here about why Shirou is pushing this point:

1. Shirou is town and believes he's making a good point against Tejate.
2. Shirou is scum and thinks making it look like Tejate is a plausible buddy for me will help get my mislim over the line
3. Shirou is scumbuddies with Tejate and knows this attack on Tejate will be invalidated once I flip, making Tejate look better than if Shirou hadn't called him scummy over this, while helping them with distancing

(2 and 3 could both be true.)

this whole post kinda vibes town to me

[GuiltyLion]

I'll vote redtea if it does come down to redtea or me, of course, but currently I would rather see implosion or numberQ limmed and I think there's time for that to happen.

numberQ's iso has a lot of caveats, to-dos and minor questions. He backed off his early suspicion of Cephrir. I'm not seeing anything strikingly towny in his posts.

He can prove himself town by voting implosion with me though - how about it, numberQ?

eh but then I do not like this post

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: imaginality

yeah, I don't like the bargaining for numberQ's vote and I don't really buy the level of projected confidence in his implosion scumread, I think implosion's later play has felt quite townie and earlier whenever imaginality was casing implosion he sounded a lot more doubtful/uncertain than he is acting now

[GuiltyLion]

@Morph

I think Shirou/implosion/AL/Ydrasse/fua is a fundamentally sound town core at the moment, I really like a lot of Shirou's posts re:imaginality and Tejate, and I think scum is going to have a hard time breaking into that townbloc even if there's capable scum in like Ceph or NSG who hasn't made any mistakes yet. and I don't even think that's likely I townread both of them still as well.

I townread all these names here, Ceph/NSG are lighter townreads, I still SR redtea, I'm waffley on Tejate/numberQ I think there could be a scum there. Really not sure how to read you, at times posts have felt town but I agree with the general thread vibe that you aren't yet a

confident

townread, probably same tier as Ceph/NSG where I definitely don't want to lim/wagon today but I wouldn't bet the game on y'all being town.

[GuiltyLion]

Or to put it another way, I am only somewhat confident that implosion is more likely scum than GuiltyLion/Cephrir/etc.

when did I become a scumread? You had me as top town in 1116

also, what

exactly

is your read on redtea? You've been very null to scum on them whenever you've talked about them or given a read on them, but you seem Very Confident implosion is more likely to flip red than they are, why do you think redtea is more likely to be town? In 1173 you suggested redtea might be scum because your wagon sprang up much quicker than theirs. Yet you aren't demonstrating any real interest in voting redtea, and saying things like this:

I just feel that I want to push for implosion a bit more rather than accept the redtea vs imaginality framing others are trying to funnel this situation into

as if people are trying to tie your alignments together instead of just independently scumreading/wagoning redtea? For me personally at least I haven't been trying to push for a "redtea vs imaginality" situation, I was pushing redtea cause I thought they were scummy and wanted to see whether people had reasons to vote or not to vote there, had nothing to do with your wagon. But I do find it weird that you don't claim to townread redtea, yet despite being the leading wagon you're not voting a slot that several other players want limmed in favor of your vanity scumread - it doesn't feel very genuine to me, feels like you're resistant to voting redtea for reasons you aren't willing to share

If I'm wrong and you have reasons to not want to lim redtea, correct me by all means, I just don't see any evidence of it in your ISO. And I know I said this earlier but I also just don't buy your confidence in implosion, this feels very similar to many times I've seen him as town and I don't think the case/reasoning against him that you laid out in 1105 is all that scum-indicative. like how would you really boil down the case against him here when you get to the nuts and bolts of it? he downplayed his ability to play mafia and seems too worried about what morph thinks of him? I don't find it hard to imagine that coming from town

[GuiltyLion]

> That's part of why redtea looks a bit better to me now, because I think if they're scum as well, scum would be keeping more names in the mix unless they're pretty sure of getting me mislimmed over redtea.

This also feels like a perspective slip.

Wait lmao good catch, "if they're scum as well"

[GuiltyLion]

Oh wait, unless he's referring to implosion there? not sure that's a slip actually

[GuiltyLion]

Nah wait no context around implosion so I think you're right, probably a slip up

I'm off to wake my brain up with caffeine before posting again

[GuiltyLion]

fua thinking self awareness is scummy then being self aware is big red flag

which fua posts are you referring to where they are being self aware?

[GuiltyLion]

This is in the context of a post talking about people who are pushing for/okay with me v redtea. I'm saying if redtea is scum as well as the people narrowing it down/letting it drift to a 1v1, I think they might more likely have been keen to keep other names open as possible D1 lims, unless they're confident they can get me limmed over redtea.

ah okay yeah that clarifies the phrasing

but you seem to be putting a lot of stock in the idea that scum wouldn't be bussing/distancing from redtea if they are scum

I dunno I was thinking about it a bit the other day and I think in a setup with a bunch of cops you're not going to see too much of scum treating each other with kid gloves, because your scumbuddies could get guiltied at any moment and you need to be setting up to play around that if possible

[GuiltyLion]

Man I wish I had the ability to catch up as fast as Meg is right now. I just can't retain information at that level of speedreading

I dunno it's probably not indicative (town or scum can lazily skim through a game) but it doesn't give me a lot of confidence in their reads. In the 13 minutes between 1634 and 1635 they read 7 pages closely enough to update their opinions/reads on players? That's only just enough time to read the posts IMO, there's no way Meg sat down with any significant/notable arguments or posts and spent any more than 30 seconds thinking about any of them.

again, could be lazy-town, and I've certainly been lazy or skipped over certain parts/sections of the game at time, but it's not an inspiring catchup

[GuiltyLion]

guiltylion are you not totally caught up or are you ignoring me or are you ignoring me until you get everyone's hot takes on me

I'm caught up but I don't remember anything you said that I felt I needed to reply to? what are you waiting on a response from me on

[GuiltyLion]

Man I wish I had the ability to catch up as fast as Meg is right now. I just can't retain information at that level of speedreading

I dunno it's probably not indicative (town or scum can lazily skim through a game) but it doesn't give me a lot of confidence in their reads. In the 13 minutes between 1634 and 1635 they read 7 pages closely enough to update their opinions/reads on players? That's only just enough time to read the posts IMO, there's no way Meg sat down with any significant/notable arguments or posts and spent any more than 30 seconds thinking about any of them.

again, could be lazy-town, and I've certainly been lazy or skipped over certain parts/sections of the game at time, but it's not an inspiring catchup

Have you played with Megs before?

I have not - what should I know?

[GuiltyLion]

I don't like numberQ jumping onto Meg's observation. I don't think the hypocrisy is nearly as important/notable as either of them are framing it to be, especially given fua's Shirou vote was early game, and I also don't think hypocrisy is a scumtell at all. If fua was still championing to lim Shirou on the "self-aware" grounds

maybe

they'd have a point, but it's a bizarre thing to harp on 60+ pages later, particularly from numberQ.

[GuiltyLion]

It's easy to feel like helping out when you relate to someone/something huh...

Strange add-on, but I also feel pocketed so I think it’s fine.

It's just that I didn't want it to seem like I'm trying to be

extra

nice just to pocket you or to appear a "goody townie shoes"

initially I thought about only saying "read post 0/page 1~3" where we talk about the hydras, but since I was also pretty lost about the hydras at the start I felt like going the extra mile in the reply

and yes, I'm self conscious of what I post as town as well. It's kinda a pain in the ass if people begin suspecting me for silly stuff like that.

No biggie. I just thought it seemed strange to outright say ‘hey, look at me, I relate to and empathize with you’. It felt a little stilted to me, but I’m just trying to find things to look at since I want to not sit on my ass and be useless this whole time.

y'all are also both pretending like this post just doesn't exist at all apparently

[GuiltyLion]

what are we doing here guys, the game is stagnating. are we waiting on anything?

my vote is on the largest wagon and feels like it's a good vote

I don't know why imaginality isn't trying harder to leave reads to follow in the event that he dies, why he's not trying harder to pressure who he thinks would be scum mislimming him

and if anyone is NOT ok with this wagon, do something more to push elsewhere? if everyone's ok with it, we should just flip it. feels like regardless of imaginality's alignment, any scum off the wagon are stalling and not doing anything here

implo's 1715 is fair I guess? I do agree gamestate wise there's not a ton of motivation for a scum!nQ to shade fua, but I have a hard time understanding how anyone genuinely believes the point against fua is actually indicative or good, so propagating it is inherently suspicious to me, even if it ultimately doesn't lead to anything or amount to much.

[GuiltyLion]

Nowhere did I say or imply I did an ISO, the posts I referenced came from Meg's own quoting. But like... okay? Not sure what this has to do with what I'm saying. Literally all I'm asking is why you used Shirou's self-aware joke as a reason to vote him (even if you later explain it in more detail), and then later used your own self-aware joke as a defense. I completely fail to see how this is in any way "weird". I didn't say it was scummy, I'm not grilling you or anything, it's not this huge thing I'm trying to nail you with. It is literally JUST an observation I thought was interesting and wanted to follow up on to see if anything else interesting would come out of it. Like jesus people, idk what's up with this game and having words/intent put in my mouth

I think my issue with this is that like, you just basically took Meg's word for it instead of going back and checking for any context yourself, it kinda vibes to me like a lazy +1 on somebody else's push rather than something that is likely to help you personally sort fua. posting "observations" is an easy way for scum to put little floaty trial feelers out for who they can plausibly push or get a temperature check on the town, without putting themselves out there too far. if you're town here it'd help me if you made your intentions with this kinda stuff more clear, and if your intention is just "following up on an interesting observation" you should expect some pushback if others think the observation NAI, lazy, ill-thought out, etc

[GuiltyLion]

Nowhere did I say or imply I did an ISO, the posts I referenced came from Meg's own quoting.

also this isn't really true, you went back and found the Shirou post immediately preceding fua's vote and claimed that the post was the reason for fua's vote

while it's true fua voted after that post, there were a few posts preceding where they had a conversation and fua pointed out other oddities in Shirou's previous posts

so clearly you did go back to reference additional posts, but either you looked at the rest of the context and completely ignored it or you didn't look at any of the other context, and both are kinda ??? to me

[GuiltyLion]

I don't want d1 over yet

why not

[GuiltyLion]

A: The wagon is on scum and the buddies are hoping for a reprieve out of apathy.

this is the theory I'm going with as imaginality has dialed back his presence/effort as well

[GuiltyLion]

I am not a night one doctor

I still think the wagonomics yesterday may make more sense if both redtea and imaginality are town though...hm, not sure.

can you explain this - why yesterday makes

more

sense with redtea as town? I'm town and I was pounding the table for redtea for a ton of yesterday and virtually nobody bit at it. The way you discount a scum!redtea possibility here doesn't sit right with me - while I can certainly imagine town!redtea I don't follow how you say it makes

more

sense than a rather straightforward possibility of redtea being scum coasting, townies didn't feel confident in it, and scum didn't push it to avoid putting too much pressure on a teammate.

[GuiltyLion]

Were they just hoping there'd be no doc?

how do you expect anyone to answer this

[GuiltyLion]

Specifically the reason that fast turnaround strikes me is that GL was so gung-ho on redtea-scum for so long, so what's the impetus for a vote swap at that point? His swap changed wagons from 4-3 to 5-2 and basically solidified the imag elim in a world where a redtea elim was still perfectly possible and he seemed so invested in his redtea scum read that it's pretty surprising he'd give it up on someone that he had just indicated multiple reasons to townread, even if he also then found some reasons to scumread them.

I disagree redtea felt possible, nobody was really scumreading them alongside me and Shirou was defending them, it felt to me like we stalled there for several days. where do you see 7 redtea voters?

I felt we were at the point where a flip would be more useful than me continuing to try to shepherd votes, I tried and failed

[GuiltyLion]

like I wrote up a whole case on redtea and was met by the thread with a resounding meh

[GuiltyLion]

I think scum!redtea was very likely gonna get bussed a bit there.

I think this is the best point in your favor, I'm not sure I feel confident saying definitively whether scum would bus scum!redtea or kinda sit out and hope the wagon dies, but if it were me I'd have felt pressured to bus (or at least solidly distance) in that situation given the possibility of cops breaking the game open and you're right I don't really see anyone doing that

I can also vibe with the suspicion on Meg/Tejate slots. Though I think I currently prefer Tejate over Meg given I was townreading NSG's content and I don't think Meg's entrance is as scummy as you're suggesting, I think scum would be more inclined to try to earn towncred. D1 it's easiest to get away with voting a mislim, I don't think scum!Meg would feel especially afraid of maneuvering onto either imag or redtea, avoiding the situation altogether I find sorta agenda-less.

[GuiltyLion]

I think town for sure would have had something to say about the two top wagons that had been discussed so much...but he didn't say or do anything other than a vanity vote on Ydrasse. I can't help but be weirded out by that.

I don't disagree that town

should

have said something and it's weird, I just don't know that scum wouldn't feel like they should say something for the same reason

I have no experience with Meg though maybe he just dgaf trying to be townread, I guess this is reasoning is similar to why people didn't want redtea yesterday and I shouldn't put much stock into it

I really hate that Tejate post 1809 I called out though, feels wayyy too much like a "I'm not scum because I'm acting uninformed!" type of post

[GuiltyLion]

while I'm not exactly a fan of their opening here, I don't think it's very dissimilar from what they did in the newbie game.

do you think scum!Meg would not try to play the same way they play as town?

[GuiltyLion]

So far I've mostly skimmed today's content, enough to see that AL protected fua. I also started ISOing imaginality over the night to try and see how others interacted with him. (Better late than never on that ISO I promised D1 I guess lol) My thoughts are a little nebulous for now, and I'm trying to factor town!Ceph into them as well, but I feel as though GL approached the imaginality wagon strangely.

He started out wanting to lim redtea, then came around on scum!imaginality, citing implosion and Shirou as convincing him. He provided lots of commentary on the evolving read, giving exact reasons every step as to why he can see what others are saying, but there were always just one or two towntells keeping him from voting. Then finally it was imaginality's bargaining with me that pushed GL over the edge to vote.

Overall, I got this sense that he was carefully charting the trajectory of his read, knowing that imaginality was town. It never struck me as though GL was actually uncertain, it was always more like seeking out reasons to slowly shift into a scumread.

um

can you explain why you don't think I was uncertain? I was pushing redtea over imaginality for most of the day and no one took me up on it and Shirou (who I townread) was pushing against it. I finally just gave up and went with the weaker scumread

I don't really know what you are looking for from town waffling between the two major wagons that isn't in my ISO

[GuiltyLion]

This is a little bit of an odd reaction given nsg said she'd be able to tell who Shirou is before Shirou said who he was. I searched for mentions of Shirou in his ISO and it's pretty much entirely being entirely convinced that Shirou is town. This is a little bit incongruous with this post in my mind because other people have been describing Shirou as having a very strong scumgame, which GL should know if he's town, and so in principle he should be slow to townread Shirou, but he isn't. Sure that might not be how GL's thinking about the slot but I don't really get the sense that GL was ever using meta to read Shirou which this post from him implies he should be doing. Which makes this post feel performative.

implosion are you scum?

I only played one game with Fumuki where I caught him early and town stomped the scumteam, which was what prompted that comment. and I explicitly already referenced this

that post you quoted, that was mostly a small joke to see if you'd react at all, the last game I remember playing with you you were scum and I feel like I remember tunneling you correctly when you were the last scum alive at like 7p or 5p. I think if this here is your scum game it's taken a giant leap, but I haven't played with you in years so I wouldn't say I have an up to date understanding of how you play scum and what you're capable of

it was not my opinion that Fumuki had a strong scum game until NSG said so

[GuiltyLion]

eh I mean I thought it was a fair word of advice to be cautious, I had no idea you were nommed for a Don Corleone and I had previously thought you were kind of an easier to read player, so it made me want to re-evaluate on why I townread you but I hadn't, haven't, actually bothered to do that yet. I do still generally believe the reasons I have for townreading you, but probably I just shouldn't weight them quite as heavily

[GuiltyLion]

This whole thing just makes it seem like he was lying about the Ceph scumread.

I never had a full on Ceph scumread, so calling it a "lie" is ??. I felt pinged by like, one Ceph post and interrogation, then I digested it after a few min and thought about it and decided I didn't really feel like it was indicative

[GuiltyLion]

his is a little bit incongruous with this post in my mind because other people have been describing Shirou as having a very strong scumgame, which GL should know if he's town

like, this is frankly extreme bullshit

I hadn't played with Fumuki-Shirou in YEARS

and also, why would me knowing the depth of Shirou's scum capabilities depend on my alignment in

this

game? Like your argument is based on this idea that I should have known Shirou could be good at scum, but scum!me should have known that as well, so, this thought process feels like a giant reach

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: implosion

if I die today cop/flip this next

case on me is full of disingenuous shit

Tejate/implosion/redtea probably

I TR everyone else except numbersQ but I'm willing to buy his claim

[GuiltyLion]

First, the suspicion toward Ceph feels very only-poke-the-warthog-from-a-distance. Like he doesn't want to incur wrath too badly. Specifically the couched language in 310 - "ever so slightly too aggressive" and "can see where he's coming from" but still wants to explore the scumread. Compare, say, even the way that nsg talked about the Shirou slot - it did not feel like she was trying to stay on his good side even though she wasn't really calling him scum when she gave her tirade of "can we please not all locktown shirou".

I'm skeptical about him having been pinged by Ceph's aggression, then having thought about it more and thinking about Ceph being laid back last time he played with him, and going through this whole line of thought and this hypothetical and deciding that this was the best use of his vote. I'm skeptical because the time between GL's "ceph gives SE-scum pushing a newbie vibes" post and his voting fua instead, was 7 minutes. This post also feels like GL trying to retcon his read on Ceph - at no point in the actual exchange did he mention having changed his mind because he was thinking about Ceph meta

which is it implosion

was I claiming to scumread Cephrir, or was I being couched and not very sure of the read

you can't have it both ways

you say I'm scummy for not scumreading Ceph strongly, then you say I'm scummy for apparently lying about scumreading Ceph

when the reality is it was never a strong read and so your idea that I "lied" later isn't based in anything that I said

and you're right, this was a period of 7 minutes, because I was just trying to thought dump into the thread and hadn't really sat down and crystallized any thinking

the fact that it is 7 minutes should make you think it's not a planned agenda, instead you try to frame it as if scum!me would make up a read and then yolo 180 on it 7 minutes later for ??? reasons. why would scum!me do that? just to get townread?

[GuiltyLion]

also, why does scum!GL do

any

of that and then walk away with a fua townread as a direct result of pressuring them just a few pages later?

like do you think I'm just sloppily making complete bs up as I go or what? Is that your impression of how I play scum?

[GuiltyLion]

This post also feels like GL trying to retcon his read on Ceph - at no point in the actual exchange did he mention having changed his mind because he was thinking about Ceph meta.

als wtf is this

like, the post you are quoting is exactly where I am saying I am changing my mind because I was thinking about my experience with Ceph the last time we played together

again, all this happened over 7 minutes??? when would you have expected me to mention Ceph meta before that post?

[GuiltyLion]

oh wait, never mind, that post was the next day, though ti was in the same sequence of posts

I guess I didn't mention meta previously, but the idea that I was "retcon"ning the read is still ridiculous, because I DID mention I could see it as town

I townread Tejate, but I can imagine Ceph being town misfiring on him.

[GuiltyLion]

like basically the whole way you went about framing my read dynamic with Ceph/Tejate/fua is just terribly disingenous

I didn't like Ceph's push on Tejate, it felt aggressive and I

was

townreading Tejate
I think about it like, fractionally more, and decide it's not especially unusual for town!Ceph to treat Tejate that way
I then think about how fua was pushing Ceph and decided to pressure fua in case they were trying to jump ahead of a Ceph-Tejate TvT

At no point was I really scumreading Ceph. at no point did I retcon my read into a townread. I was pinged, then decided it was not indicative, then came around to more confidently townreading Ceph over time

But you're playing up the magnitude of the suspicion I initially had on Ceph explicitly for the purpose of making it look like I was lying about how much I scumread him

which is ?? both because - that's not what I did, and also why the hell would scum!GL do that to begin with? There's no critical thinking in any of your case on me of what scum!GL gains or is trying to do with my posts, it's all just fear mongering about inconsistency in how I present my reads. I'm far more inconsistent as town than scum

[GuiltyLion]

also, maybe this is a weird card to play, but I was stoned during that whole initial sequence of posts and I said as much in 318

I don't think that should like, clear me, but it should add context to anyone thinking those posts feel a little muddy or confused

[GuiltyLion]

I'll reiterate: I don't see why town-GL would rather "create content and pressure fua" than creating content and pressuring Cephrir, who would have been a real wagon (i.e., real pressure) rather than a vanity vote.

maybe

just MAYBE

it's because I wasn't scumreading Cephrir

[GuiltyLion]

I get cranky when people scumread me

what do you think about hall the actual arguments I'm making

game after game people zero in on me getting riled up and act like that's scummy, it's not, it's just me getting riled up

Ydrasse and Cabd can vouch for having JUST seen me get like this when LLD pushed me in the Dance game

[GuiltyLion]

How could you possibly be that confident that fua would be an impossible wagon? The argument you're referencing started on page 12.

this is a good point - though I am not sure I trust your intentions in making it - but I was basically the first person to townread fua and I think I actually deserve a lot of the credit for locking horns with them and prompting AI content from them into the thread.

If memory serves implosion was the one actually sitting around and still taking potshots at fua. Like that's basically exactly why I posted 439, I was coming around on fua but implosion was still pressuring them

[GuiltyLion]

anyway uh

that was a strong reaction and a lot of posts and I don't want to like, turn this into a full on 1v1 that might make my points less salient

so I'm gonna take a thread break

[GuiltyLion]

hey y'all, haven't read up, got sucked into the insanity that was the NFL this past weekend and now am doing work, but I will have time to play this afternoon a couple hours from now. this is basically a quick prod dodge but to make sure it's not a totally content-less post for now I'll say I did see implosion saying his point was to try to evaluate me from a biased view because he's afraid of my scum game after White Flag, and while I can understand that

idea

I don't know if I'm sold that it really takes away the issues I had with what he posted because it basically excuses him from having to account for/address town explanations for my play. I'm sympathetic to the general notion of "GL got me last time as scum so I can't trust that he's town here", and I do think it's understandable from a neutral perspective to be suspicious of how I wound up on the imaginality miselimination, but idk, I don't like having to discern his intentions in posting an "intentionally biased" case because that's basically exactly what scum need to do all the time.

I'll also admit that part of why I wanted to throw down with him in response was to see which sides people take, and I figure probably people have since commented on that, so I'll read up on the subsequent pages when I actually have time to sit and play

[GuiltyLion]

I mean this is sort of the point. You never "scumread" him formally but you did unambiguously say you were getting scummy vibes from something of his, and then you quickly turned around on that. Hence my saying that you as town would want to push on that more. It's just weird to go so quickly from saying something Ceph did is suspicious (which you did do, even if you didn't formally scumread him) immediately to voting someone else specifically because of reasoning that assumes Ceph is town. Like I think it's pretty weird that early in the game to vote for a reason based on two specific people being town in the first place.

on this and your subsequent 1901

I think maybe this is just a disconnect in playstyle more than anything - when I return to a game and feeling like I should put some thoughts into the thread, especially if I'm a lil behind the number of active pages, I will often just react to posts or put my first thought down before I've really deeply thought through it. Doubly so when I'm not 100% sober and not tryharding.

That Saturday, I posted 135, then didn't come back to the game until later that night, there were some 170 posts to catch up on and read through. During the initial read through, my first reaction was that I didn't like the vibe of the Ceph-Tejate interactions on page 10, felt like Ceph was being overly aggressive to relatively innocuous posts from Tejate. I then saw nQ's post 273 on the next page saying the same thing I had been thinking, which gave me good feels about nQ and prompted me to post 308, then 310 to add my own take/perspective. But as I was writing out my thoughts, it was causing me to question them myself, which is already reflected even in that post. And then by the time I had read through the rest from 270-300, I kinda didn't feel as strong of a dislike toward's Ceph's posts anymore, and was trying to absorb that with also a gut dislike of fua's page 12 and vote on Ceph. I thought pushing/voting fua would be both more informative and based off a better read than my initial Ceph ping.

Being 100% sincere, is this something I could/would fake as scum? Possibly - I'm pretty sure I've said on site elsewhere before that I do like to fake these types of quick reads reversals as scum, both because it might appear agenda-less and because I do them as town. However, the fact is I

do

do them as town, so unless your argument is that the execution of this one in particular looks fake and designed to get towncred,

or

that it serves a certain agenda, to me it's just a non-indicative playstyle habit, to post a hipfire take and then reverse it moments later.

If you're intentionally trying to bias yourself, I can see how maybe it's "weird" and therefore worth calling out, but ultimately I don't really think you can genuinely believe it's weird in a

scummy

(rather than NAI) manner. At no point did I later try to push Ceph on those grounds, and my pressure on fua quickly turned into a townread, so it doesn't set me up down the road to scumread/push either of the players involved, the only real scum!agenda it could have is just trying to fake-solve in a way I think I'd solve as town around slots I wasn't planning on limming/pushing on D1. But you haven't been suggesting that it's a disingenuous/fake version of something I do as town, you're suggesting it's something I

wouldn't

do as town, which is just not true.

Your argument seems to rest on an idea that town!me should have been more suspicious of Ceph - why? Why is it inconceivable that I'd initially dislike something on my very first catchup read through, but then reflect on it / think about it and decide nevermind, it's not actually a good reason to suspect someone? Surely that has happened to you before?

[GuiltyLion]

And why would a 1v1 make your points less salient?

you ever been in a game where people start arguing every little point back and forth for pages on end? nobody wants to read all that, I had my initial reaction where I called out the stuff I thought was disingenous/motivated reasoning, and didn't imagine further discussion (before other players had a chance to react/post) would do much productive and would instead just bloat the thread - which is annoying to come back to and makes catching up a difficult process for other players

[GuiltyLion]

redtea is a lingering of me thinking their approach to the game is more sensible as detached town than detached scum. Like look at this page, I just don't think detached scum would typically have this little care about how they're perceived.

on the whole, how much do you really believe this? Like would you bet the game on redtea being town? Would you say you're more confident in me being scum than redtea?

I can vibe/understand your gamestate points about me feeling like I could be the active scum, but I think it's really dangerous/bad to be making gamestate views as the foundation for your sort on a hard-to-sort player (me) when you're simultaneously making base assumptions like town!redtea for

really

spurious reasoning. I don't see anything at all that makes me think redtea's play isn't just lazy scum faking apathy for townpoints.

[GuiltyLion]

I think Shirou's assessment of me as a gamestate read is fair, (and similar to implosion's) but unfortunately that means I'm dealing with a BoP dynamic where it's starting to feel like I have to sort correctly in the (in my mind) much harder to sort and less likely to be town low-content slots like Meg or redtea to try to

prove

myself town via gamestate, and if I pick incorrectly between them (or even Tejate as well) it sets scum up to push me pretty easily on D3 or beyond.

therefore I humbly request any N2 cops to strongly consider copping me if we mislim today, I'm probably not NK'd in that universe and it'd be a real asset to town if I were hard cleared imo

[GuiltyLion]

some other things I'm trying to sift through and form Real Opinions on

morph/Tejate shared mutual scumread based on prior game of experience - I feel like this is significant in some flavor, though I could see either side of a T/S or even a S/S distancing tactic. I find it somewhat unlikely that both slots would be town and both would be having genuine good faith concerns about disparity in each other's play from a past T-T game, yet not be doing much more to resolving it? Like Ceph has a really great point about their D1 interactions looking kinda wack, and it reminded me of the really bizarre Tejate comment about morph in 1265 that I called out in 1468 and 1475.

at the same time, having some small doubts about scum!Tejate given that he still feels kinda tonally honest to me... but not sure if they're enough to turn him into a legit townread - I also feel resoundingly meh about the way he's defending me against a bad point in implosion's case, implo already acknowledged that it was an intentionally biased case and Tejate isn't really acknowledging/responding to that, and I could see this as scum sucking up to me and trying to leverage a TvT into a convenient vote / alternate wagon.

Meg feels more likely to be the apathetic townie to me than redtea, I still scumread every redtea post reflexively with great vengeance. Like can we all agree 1925 is just a super LAMISTy post? what was redtea themself doing at end of D1 yesterday to keep the day going or to help generate content and sort players? why is there an assumption that the replacement can't or won't be active today?

as I just said in 2019, I feel I need to get the vote right between Tejate/Meg/redtea as a miselim on any of them is only going to further paranoia on my slot, but my current pref for lim is probably redtea->Tejate->Meg in that order.

here's another gamestate read, I also kinda feel like if town!redtea there'd be at least one scum making noise about kickstarting that wagon again, but basically everyone feels really apathetic about it. Why? It makes me feel either redtea is scum or redtea is a miselim scum want to save for later, and neither is a good thing to be ignoring right now.

[GuiltyLion]

Tejate wagon feels super solid composition wise so far though

VOTE: Tejate

[GuiltyLion]

one other last last thought on redtea and whether they're apathetic town/scum

if I were scum this game, I think I'd consider aiming for at least one scum teammate to try to act TSTBS/disengaged/unsortable in an effort try to vortex the cop shots away from the teammates trying to endgame/carry. IMO this is why it's more useful here to try to use cop checks on slots that are more likely to endgame rather than null-scum barely posters, but from a scum!perspective it'd probably be a good idea to have a slot trying to ride that line where nobody feels comfortable reading either way (due to lack of real content) who might be able to coast for quite a while yet is totally fine to discard in case they get guiltied

[GuiltyLion]

@Tejate, fair enough, I am looking forward to reading your post

[GuiltyLion]

You know

Meg really sounds like someone that knows Tejate is town and is getting themselves ready to shade/blame people tomorrow if Tejate flips green.

Not that I think Tejate is town but eh. Meg's posts are increasingly bugging me. It's hard to believe they do believe on what they are saying at some points, their logic is so...weird sometimes?

I was thinking about whether this is a WK, but the thing is I don't know if scum!Meg needs or wants to go to bat for town!Tejate this hard, feels like if Tejate is town then scum are more likely to just let town drive that wagon without needing to get too involved given fua and Ceph are both on it

Meg feels insistent on trying to pick this fight with you without caring how it looks, what does he gain from this as scum really? I don't think it's going to save Tejate if they're buddies either

Meg I'm having a lot of trouble following your logic. You asked Shirou to condense their case, which they did, and then you basically objected to the condensed case on the grounds that it was only based on one thing. Which it was, because it was condensed.

100% agree with this point

[GuiltyLion]

I think the core of my issue with that exchange at this point isn't about you scumreading or not scumreading ceph or whatever per se but about you specifically voting someone based on an assumption that Ceph is town, immediately after stating your suspicion (and like I briefly mentioned, I also think it's strange at that point in the game to make a vote specifically based on reasoning that assumes multiple people are town in the first place). Like sure, maybe your opinions change faster than mine but I just feel like the thought process that goes into voting someone specifically under the assumption that they'd make sense as scum if Ceph is town, would not come that quickly after you felt suspicion on Ceph.

Meh, I guess all I'll say here is like.. that thought process did come that quickly, and I think if I were scum, even though I do like to try to emulate agenda less free-spirited play, it would have been a little more calculated to ~some end~ than that.

You should clearly be able to see that I'm more confident in you being scum than redtea from my recent reads list

this is just baffling though

like in what world and I a more confident bet for scum than redtea

I truly can't grok that opinion

I can grok like, GL

could

be scum, I have [x] or [y] reason to TR redtea, but when it comes to read

confidence

, how on earth do you compare our ISOs and our play and say mine comes from scum more often than theirs?

as much as I agree with a lot of your points/analysis, I don't think I'll ever really feel good about you being town if you really have this much strength in a redtea townread, it's fundamentally unimaginable to me. I can understand being a lot

more unsure

of me given our recent past games, but

more confident

that I'm scum? no way

[GuiltyLion]

am* I, not and I

[GuiltyLion]

I guess to try to frame my thinking better, I feel like at best someone could be vaguely townreading on redtea but with large uncertainty

and maybe scumread me, but with less confidence in me being scum than confidence in redtea being town

saying you're more confident that I am scum here than redtea rubs me the wrong way. At this point, there should be like a bunch of reasons I could be town and maybe a handful of why I could be scum. Whereas with redtea, there's a handful of reasons they could be scum and .... ???? virtually no reasons for them to be town? The fact that they are barely playing?

[GuiltyLion]

I am pretty sure I'm misunderstanding you here? Or you're misunderstanding me? I find you a little scummy on net and redtea a little townie on net. And you're saying you can find those two things individually reasonable, but together they're not? I don't understand how you're using the word "confidence" here. I'm just ordering slots from T->S and saying you're further on that list than redtea.

yeah I'm probably not being clear, sorry

I think finding me scummy is reasonable (though not for all the reasons you said), I don't think finding redtea townie is at all reasonable but I can accept that you might think that

I think if you're saying "who would I pick for scum" and picking me over redtea, that's reasonable

what I don't think is reasonable is thinking you're confident that I'm scum to a degree greater than you're confident redtea is town. Which would be a more

surprising

result to you - a GL greenflip, or a redtea redflip? It feels to me like you're saying the former would be a greater surprise, that is what I find hard to buy. I think that there should be a lot of reasons to think I

could

be town, but it feels like you're willfully trying to discount all of those in part just because you hold to a townread on redtea by default on really flimsy reasoning.

I guess another way of putting it is this - in my mind, if you sat down and wrote "list of reasons GL could be town/scum", you'd probably have quite a long list in both columns. If you wrote "list of reasons redtea could be town/scum", I feel it'd be relatively empty. So how can you feel better about having my alignment correct than redtea?

[GuiltyLion]

the way he's been treating the redtea slot in general having very little nuance seemingly

also I hate this

I'm treating redtea with a lot more nuance than you. Your position is "they don't seem to care about solving or appearing town, so they're town". Whereas I've highlighted several times throughout my ISO things I didn't like about their posts, things that make me think their thought process isn't genuine, things that stand out to me as an absence of town indicators. How on earth can you sit here and accuse

me

of treating the slot with a lack of nuance

[GuiltyLion]

as another thing, redtea literally hasn't voted all game. Everything else aside, how on earth can you look at that and say that "yeah, that's a town player"?? town's only weapon to kill scum is the vote, here we have a player halfway through D2 who hasn't tried to use it even once. call me "lacking nuance" all you want but I don't see why the hell I'm supposed to just assume they're town and I don't see why the hell you're forming gamestate POE scumread views off a key assumption that redtea isn't scum

[GuiltyLion]

do we have Cephrir/AL/Shirou on board though? I don't want to trade a leading wagon for a smaller one but if I got to decide the lim unilaterally I'd pick redtea

[GuiltyLion]

also I'll do a readslist as well

{AL, fua, Ceph}
{Shirou, numberQ, Ydrasse}
{morph, implo, Meg}
{redtea, Tejate}

I'd be hard sell to lim anyone above the bottom tier at the moment. Second tier is town unless there's multiple green flips in the bottom 5, top tier I'd bet the game on town

[GuiltyLion]

implosion, the issue is you opened the day with this:

The dynamics of whether scum are likely to have been on the imag wagon depend a lot on redtea's alignment; if redtea is town then it's not like scum were at any real risk yesterday and they probably would have voted more for looking town than for caring who got elimmed.

and then have basically since treated redtea as town, not once pressuring them, not once discussing how you'd view the game on them being scum, instead pushing me because you didn't like my D1 nor my progression on the imaginality wagon

I get that you're saying you don't see our alignments as tied together in any way, but that doesn't feel true to me in how you're behaving. You're spending all this effort casing me because you don't like my redtea scumread and because you think the gamestate points to me being scum if your townpool (which includes redtea) is correct. I don't feel at all like you're considering the world in which redtea is scum who I would be correctly pushing on, I imagine you'd say "well you could still be just distancing/bussing them in that world", which is certainly fair to speculate about, but I don't feel you even thinking about the first step of "what if redtea is scum". That's why I'm so hung up on trying to figure out why you have all this confidence in redtea town, you're basing a lot of your subsequent play

off

that assumption instead of revisiting the assumption itself.

[GuiltyLion]

It might be partially unfair to accuse you of lacking nuance on redtea but posts like this make me feel like it. Who the heck "fakes apathy for townpoints"??? Like I could see redtea being scum who is apathetic about the game, but what kind of scum who is genuinely engaged in the game will then fake apathy because they think apathy will look townier than them engaging with people. That just sounds absurd to me, apathy is usually not viewed as townish.

this also feels like a semantic nitpick or misunderstanding, maybe "fake apathy for townpoints" isn't the best phrasing but it should be obvious I'm not saying redtea is

actually

secretly engaged and just faking apathy, I mean more like they're staying in their projected apathetic lane because no one is forcing them to do anything outside of that. Maybe I should have said "faking [being apathetic town] for townpoints", "fake" is meant to be operative on "town" not "apathy", but I can see how that's not well-written.

[GuiltyLion]

UNVOTE:

[GuiltyLion]

I have some thoughts I want to eventually put down about implo/Shirou's posts but yeah Tejate's latest posts have me townreading him again and I like that morph is feeling that as well

busy rn but will play in a bit

[GuiltyLion]

also one last thing

it's an unfair take I know but even if I'll give scum points for GL if redtea flips town, I don't think I'll give that many town points if they flip scum...

it's like I said before, the confidence that redtea is scum seems a bit overdone to me...I would still suspect that GL may or not have thrown his most fragile teammate under the bus to gain town cred.

I will say in response to this

just cop me if I'm going to get this level of paranoia about me all game, where even BOP won't suffice apparently

please cop me, I'm directly asking for it

[GuiltyLion]

GL, you seem to have an issue the ~confidence~ that implosion has about redtea being town, but conversely I kinda am still a bit puzzled about how ~confident~ you're about their slot being scum.

I'm saying confidence weirdly like that because I know both of you already said it's not exactly confidence, but the thing is implosion is almost always assuming redtea is town or at least not a very good vote right now (kinda?), and it feels you're mostly always assuming they're scum/a very good vote, since D1.

It feels like you're in fact both doing a similar thing, but each on a different side of the coin more or less? But I suppose since I agree with implosion points/logic/pov more than yours (and I town lean him), to me personally it means your posts bug me more than implo's.

on this

my general mindset is, at the start of the game, everyone is base 60-70% town a priori, and both scum and town are going to try to keep up appearances of looking town

therefore any time someone makes a post that I really have a hard time imagining making sense from a town POV, it's a point against them, especially as other players are posting things that I find generally likely to come from town

as D1 progresses, the more someone posts things that look town to me, the less likely I am to want to vote them that day. There's always going to be a capable scum who fools me early game, that much I just take as a given, my hope is to find them later when I have a ton of associatives, vote counts, and flipped alignments to work with. Instead my goal is to find the scum that aren't trying or are completely failing to keep up with the majority of town players. The more someone chronically lurks, doesn't post, doesn't give me town vibes, the more I want to lim them, especially early game as we have mislims to spare and I think the general odds of this being a town-player-failing-to-look-town shrink.

end of the day, I usually have at least a few reasons to townread almost everybody - posts I liked or felt were useful, thought processes that seemed genuine, votes I thought demonstrated intent to find scum or sort players. Every now and then I have pings or scum tells that fire hard on my scumdar and push me towards tunneling somebody, but that hasn't really happened this game.

Instead I have a ton of players I townread to varying degrees, and then a pool of low content low engagement slots that don't give me any reason to townread them. Of those nulls, redtea has given me the

least

reason to townread them.

pt 2 coming in a sec, did Ceph a favor by trying to Break Up The Wall

[GuiltyLion]

pt 2

I don't like spending early game hounding the prolifically hard to read players or the players who are Doing The Most. In my book it's very likely you will find bogus/false reasons to scumread these players if you try to suspect them hard enough, cause they're the ones putting the most noise/content into the thread to interact with. I find it's a much better process to sort these players when you have the fullest arsenal of information at your disposal late game, that is when you have the best chance to read them correctly.

Someone like redtea isn't inspiring any confidence that I'll have more/better information with which to read them later, compared to someone like a morph or an implosion. It's best to lim the low content slots and bite the bullet early even if they're town limbait. And I find these types of "barely playing, not trying to appear town in any capacity" players are still >rand scum most of the time! because just as much as y'all act like town has no reason to play that way, scum has no reason to play that way either! This:

Not a single one of redtea's posts looks like it's crafted to get people to townread them

is

never

a good reason to townread someone if it's by itself. Combined with other points, sure. But assuming that every scum player is going to try to get townread and going to play the way that

you

think scum should be played is a complete fool's errand, and gong to wreck you every time you meet the meme/apathetic scum players who just don't give a damn about tryharding (often as either alignment, but especially as scum)

That's why I can't grok the strength in implosion's redtea townread relative to the strength in his scumread on me. I can sorta vibe with like, thinking they

might

be town, and suspecting me for pushing LHF. Maybe? I don't think I especially pushed low hanging fruit in my last scum game with implosion. But sure, lots of scum like pushing LHF.

But what I really

can't

vibe with is why he doesn't seem concerned at all that he maybe just can't read me that well, and that maybe the odds of him finding false alarms or erroneous signals in my some ~160 posts are quite high, compared to the much lower odds that redtea's ~50 posts are enough for him to confidently feel scum never produces that ISO.

[GuiltyLion]

so while you're here, how are you feeling about this game and the people in it?

*wheezing and gurgling noises* *collapses on the sidewalk*

I also strongly disagree with implosion's assertion that redtea is not trying to look town. redtea is not trying to look 'solvey' sure. but redtea IS trying to use charisma/humor to pass a vibe check. I would say a post like this is definitely designed to be townread, I would even say it serves no other real purpose. And I can say the same exact thing about redtea's first post about fua making them laugh, that was kinda my main point when I first cased them

[GuiltyLion]

If redtea is town I feel like the probability that this is scum!GL trying to redirect us into the LHF is quite high, if one of Meg/Tejate are scum.

it's like I said before, the confidence that redtea is scum seems a bit overdone to me...I would still suspect that GL may or not have thrown his most fragile teammate under the bus to gain town cred.

this is also really bugging me and makes me think my whole gamestate view is fucked and Shirou might be scum

first, he says if Meg/Tejate are scum, my plan would be to distract town off my buddy onto a LHF town wagon

then, he says if redtea is scum, my plan is to bus the weakest member of my team.

So in one world, scum!GL doesn't bus his buddies, instead he's trying to save them by pushing the easiest available counterwagon

but in another world, scum!GL is bussing for towncred?

It's not consistent or an honest treatment of me. Shirou has no position on whether I as scum am likely to bus my buddies, instead he's finding ways to scumread me regardless of redtea's alignment and regardless of Meg/Tejate's alignment. There's no consideration here of why wouldn't scum!GL bus scumbuddy!Meg, why wouldn't scum!GL save buddy!redtea by pushing Meg instead, etc. It feels like a really warped way of treating my slot and my brain is stuck on trying to process how this could be genuine

does anyone else see this?

[GuiltyLion]

I mean I guess the simple explanation is he just doesn't like my confidence on redtea, but I really hate how he's using that to find a way in which I am scum regardless of what the alignments are of any of the other players involved. like just vote me instead if that's your position?

[GuiltyLion]

Whether it flips town or scum is just tools to try to make sense of it and if there's good scum motivation or not to do it.

ok, but if redtea is scum, and I am scum with redtea, why not just take the free Meg/Tejate options instead?

and if redtea is town, and I am scum with Meg, why not bus him for towncred instead and save redtea for later?

when you reason like this you can write any narrative you want

[GuiltyLion]

the tl;dr for my 2220 by the way is just POE

I POE my scumreads and focus on finding town

if I can't find you town, you're good odds for scum and I want to lim you

I see no reason to find redtea town, 90 pages into the game

[GuiltyLion]

It feels like scum is very much happy with the focus being on inactive slots so I feel like between Tejate/Ydrasse/redtea there is at most 1 scum.

who is the scum that is "happy" with the focus on inactive slots? Every time I've tried to push redtea I've been met with a bunch of resistance and scumreads in return. Same with Ydrasse, nobody is actually pushing her, she's picked up like 1 vote total this game maybe?

the only wagon it felt like most people were happy with was Tejate, and I don't understand who you think is scum specifically that is encouraging attention on inactive slots

[GuiltyLion]

I don't think you guys realize how much of a wild approach to scumming they are doing right now if they are scum. In all my 3 years of mafiascum I've NEVER seen a scum slot in the middle of D2 straight up say "I've no reads, so".

you're right, I don't realize that. I feel like I see lurky disengaged scum all the time, fairly consistently. Reads are the easiest avenue to poke at someone's thought processes and inherently restrictive to future votes/maneuvers, why would scum post them or commit to them if they don't need to?

In my last game, holiday dance, scum!Andante said she didn't have strong reads, then made up some SRs, then literally said later in the day that those weren't her real reads she just felt like she wanted to participate. That was actually the first time I could remember seeing scum openly say they were making up their reads - which I feel is even wilder than just saying you don't have them.

In Shakespeare, the game I played before that, scum!Juliet didn't give any reads, I called her out on that, then she said she was happy to provide if I asked for some but she didn't previously give them cause she felt discouraged/ignored by the thread.

That's just off the top of my head from my two most recent games, in my history on site I've seen plenty of "would scum actually play this weakly/badly?" slots flip scum. Townreading someone because you think they'd try harder or do better as scum is a fallacy.

[GuiltyLion]

and again I want to add that having a slot play intentionally scummy might actually be

incentivized

in this setup because it could draw a cop shot away from the tryhard scum teammates who are positioning themselves to endgame

the thing that makes me a little iffy on that is I don't really see anyone trying to distance/bus redtea. That's the biggest thing that makes me think they could be town, the fact that if they

are

scum there's nobody trying to look good from their flip

[GuiltyLion]

there's not even much to discuss in the first place

like, what do we exactly talk about redtea when we've talked about most of their posts already? There's the recent string of posts to dissect but that's it.

Just vote the slot and get this over with, I'm getting lethargic about this game being like this.

IF they flip town though, we also should turbo eliminate one of GL/Meg/Tejate tomorrow imo.

That's it have a nice day everyone.

what's with the emotional mindset here? Why are you acting like this game is so boring/bad for you?

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: redtea

Tejate I am sorry for doubting you

[GuiltyLion]

I think my current working theory is like

AL, fua, Ceph are locktown, but AL/Ceph are kinda taking the backseat and not driving so much, giving scum room to drive discussion

Meg/Tejate are limbait townies scum is planning on miseliminating

redtea is scum

there is another scum in implo/Shirou defending them so much (hot take wild conspiracy theory would be both but I don't really want to confbias myself that much yet)

and then the pool of people I need to sort more definitively alongside the implo/Shirou group is numberQ, Ydrasse, morph. All of them feel fairly town to me, numberQ especially I've liked a lot of his posts today, but it's not impossible there's a deep scum in there just coasting (assuming there is a town in implo/Shirou).

I thought about my "nobody is bussing redtea" thing but I think it's stupid, in a set up with so many cops scum probably don't want to bus unless they absolutely have to

[GuiltyLion]

I think an implo/Shirou/redtea team actually makes a ton of sense, but let's flip redtea first

it would make sense why both of them are taking so many potshots at me, beyond Meg/Tejate there's really not a lot of slots this game that are super easy to push, and I tend to be a bit all over the place and scumreadable so it's both necessary and convenient for scum to be trying to set me up to keep me in the limpool

[GuiltyLion]

and I kinda wonder if Shirou talking about why he'd scumread me if redtea is town is meant to nudge me away from limming redtea out of Fear of Being Wrong

p-edit: really? I went back and checked VC 2.04 and nobody was voting redtea, I don't think there's been six votes since then?

[GuiltyLion]

implosion what's your latest read on Shirou

do you have any thoughts on the thing I called out yesterday about how he's like "if redtea is town, GL is scum protecting a buddy, and if redtea is scum, GL is scum bussing"

does your read on me hinge at all on redtea's alignment?

[GuiltyLion]

I'm trying my best to hide my annoyance on the scum reads

Well you're not doing a very good job lmao

I have more to say on your big ole posts but I'm just waking up and need coffee in my brain to do it justice. The thrust of it basically though is that I actually don't think defending redtea like you did would be a very dumb thing to do, we were very close to limming somebody else today and you were setting up to push me on D3 regardless of who we limmed between Meg/Tejate. You're acting like this could only be some terrible newbie scum play of yours and I just don't think that's true.

Also, "why would I play like this as scum" is not a good defense, it's inherently a WIFOM argument. How about you stick to explaining why you think things like redtea town, Meg scum, GL scum, instead of making up weird leaps of reasoning around why scum!you doesn't defend redtea here. Ydrasse pulled a lot of this same WIFOM as scum in my last game "pairing with the IC and not playing would be dumb for me as scum!!" well turns out that's what she was doing and it wasn't dumb because she came very close to winning

[GuiltyLion]

Also I mentioned before but the only time I've seen you as scum you did the same thing defending a suspected buddy saying their play was too awkward/poor to comr from scum. You can say you learned from that game and that you'd never make the same mistake again but I say old habits die hard and maybe you've just learned to be sneaker about it

[GuiltyLion]

I would like Ydrasse to live through the day ;A;

[GuiltyLion]

UNVOTE:

GL let me ask you a question before deciding for sure what doing today:

what would be your read on me if redtea flipped town?

lol, is this an attempt at trying to throw what you *already did* back at me if I say scum? YOU already said you scumread me regardless of redtea's flip, so there's no way you can act like it's scummy for me if I do the same

cause frankly I haven't liked most of your posts today and I think I'd scumread you either way. As I said in my last reads post, I have all of AL/fua/Ceph as "barring insane extreme shenanigans, I can't see myself voting these slots ever" tier townreads. I think Meg/Tejate are townie regardless of redtea flip.

I think numberQ is fairly townie but largely I don't see why he as scum would claim N1 cop and clear his top suspect - it's not the best point, he could still be scum, but I find it less likely

Ydrasse I have a pet theory on I'm waiting to see how she plays D3 when she can't coast off the doc claim, but I think she's felt tonally different than my most recent game with her when she was scum

morph I don't have a confident read on, I put a lot of stock in AL finding them generally townie, and I

really

like that they also indicated doubts/backing off of Tejate when they did. I don't see any scum agenda there, but I do have respect for their scumgame

Implosion feels agenda-y. You feel agenda-y. And redtea frankly I have a really hard time seeing as town in any universe because my townblock is quite large.

So yeah, I'm probably scumreading you regardless of redtea's actual alignment. The main thing being I don't see three scum outside of you/redtea if both are town. I'd have to be

significantly

off in my assessment of the game, it would require basically all of my nulls to be scum

But I don't think I am, and I don't think redtea is flipping town either, so let's get on with it

p-edit: oh

[GuiltyLion]

yeah Ydrasse repping out like that kinda ends a theory I had for why she was playing this way, but I'm also not sure she'd do that as scum?? probably shouldn't read into it but eh. we'll see what the replacement says but I still don't think that's a good wagon today

[GuiltyLion]

redtea is a lingering of me thinking their approach to the game is more sensible as detached town than detached scum. Like look at this page, I just don't think detached scum would typically have this little care about how they're perceived.

on the whole, how much do you really believe this? Like would you bet the game on redtea being town? Would you say you're more confident in me being scum than redtea?

I can vibe/understand your gamestate points about me feeling like I could be the active scum, but I think it's really dangerous/bad to be making gamestate views as the foundation for your sort on a hard-to-sort player (me) when you're simultaneously making base assumptions like town!redtea for

really

spurious reasoning. I don't see anything at all that makes me think redtea's play isn't just lazy scum faking apathy for townpoints.

It might be partially unfair to accuse you of lacking nuance on redtea but posts like this make me feel like it. Who the heck "fakes apathy for townpoints"??? Like I could see redtea being scum who is apathetic about the game, but what kind of scum who is genuinely engaged in the game will then fake apathy because they think apathy will look townier than them engaging with people. That just sounds absurd to me, apathy is usually not viewed as townish.

also I was rereading and this post is misreppier than I initially identified

because in the exact post implosion is quoting, I say "

LAZY

scum faking apathy for townpoints"

but implosion says
"what kind of scum

who is genuinely engaged in the game

will then fake apathy because they think apathy will look townier than them engaging with people"

and I never said redtea was genuinely engaged in the game, like I literally said in my post, they'd be playing lazy

[GuiltyLion]

yeah, GL is scum

I'm a night 3 cop and I'm leashing my cop on GL

we're no eliminating tomorrow

if I die tonight you eliminate GL or you're game throwing

that's kinda it.

In my opinion we should also stop following this and just eliminate ydrasse but /shrug

If my result on GL is a inno I can self-vote if he wishes me to. I'm pretty sure it's not going to be an inno though.

By the way that's why I was hinting that I "trusted a cop to check on GL". Because duh, I was the cop and I was gonna check him.

I kinda think it's a waste to check him right now tbh though because we could just eliminate him and me check someone else but eh, I don't have enough energy to try to convince people of that.

Also I think redtea is town due to the fact he's pushing it yeah

lol, go ahead and cop me, if you're town it'll be green I promise

and if you're scum, you're gonna claim guilty tomorrow anyways. so no, we're not no-limming, we're limming scum!redtea

feels like this is a desperation effort to save the game

[GuiltyLion]

If my result on GL is a inno I can self-vote if he wishes me to. I'm pretty sure it's not going to be an inno though.

why the fuck would I ask you to self-vote if you have an inno on me

if you're scum you claim guilty on me 100% of the time, and you should know that

so this is not an honest thought here

[GuiltyLion]

it's truly still beyond bizarre to me that anyone can be more confident in me being scum and redtea being town than the reverse situation

like Shirou, you could have just not claimed, let scum!me push a town!redtea, and then use your cop however you want and push me tomorrow

instead you preemptively claim today because you're SO SURE that I'm scum? nah mate

[GuiltyLion]

WHY YOU THINK SCUM ME NEVER CLAIMS AN INNO ON YOU TO TRY TO WIFOM?

uh, yeah. Correct play for scum on D3 is to claim a guilty and use it to brute force a miselim, especially if we've already miselimmed twice

if you're scum, claiming an inno is a bad move 100% of the time

[GuiltyLion]

it's a desperation move because I think redtea is just scum and Shirou is scum realizing he's losing

[GuiltyLion]

this panic is not a good look on you dude

[GuiltyLion]

yeah, if Shirou is town, correct play is just not claim here, flip redtea, if it's town just cop me and out the result tomorrow

I can't think of a town reason to try to claim first here, and I'm really trying. he should not be this confident in town!redtea / scum!GL

[GuiltyLion]

yeah, if Shirou is town, correct play is just not claim here, flip redtea, if it's town just cop me and out the result tomorrow

I can't think of a town reason to try to claim first here, and I'm really trying. he should not be this confident in town!redtea / scum!GL

???????????

I'M NIGHT 3 COP, NOT NIGHT 2

Tomorrow you would simply push me and there's already Meg/Tejate/You for a wagon. If one of Morph/Ydra is scum, and I think they are, there's almost enough to miseliminate me there and I've 0 energy for this game.

The reason I'm doing this is because it was obvious from today that if you're scum, redtea is likely town and you're already setting up implo/me for miseliminations, and if I claim cop there, you would say it's simply a desperation move to buy a no elimination day.

oh lol, you're making the even more convenient claim

dude, you need to take a deep breath and just consider you might be wrong. let's flip redtea. if they're town, you can use that to push me tomorrow. let's do it. I'm happy putting my money where my mouth is on redtea

[GuiltyLion]

GL you're confirmed scum to me and you should treat me as confirmed scum to you

I mean you're the one who forced that dichotomy over your crusade for town!redtea... I'm still just trying to flip my primary suspect here man

I don't think I'm wrong though.

funny thing is, I know for a fact that you are!

[GuiltyLion]

You/GL/Meg would likely vote either me or implo tomorrow/following days as far as I can see

you think that would happen on a town!redtea flip?

[GuiltyLion]

If I'm scum with redtea as you all seem to be thinking, the worst that can happen by no eliminating one day and eliminating redtea on the other, is that you'll lose the possibility to get one extra elimination, but you'll still have nailed down two scum either way, and would have used NONE of the remaining cop checks on either of us

If I'm truly a town cop and GL is scum, if you eliminate me before I get the check on GL, you're basically gonna be likely two mislims down (me and redtea) and have no confirmed scum.

If I'm scum doing this I would already be cornered. You all would lose little from no eliminating for one day.

If I'm town though, you're massively shooting yourselves on the foot by not no eliminating one day for me to get the result.

I'm a bit confused, what exactly is your position around eliminating redtea today?

I haven't thought through all the implications of no eliminating tomorrow, I think it depends heavily on if we have an N3 doc and what night is fua's cop shot, but I don't think there's a compelling argument against eliminating redtea today unless you

assume

that they're town and it's a guaranteed miselimination. which absolutely no one should be doing

[GuiltyLion]

the idea that you're willing to bet the game on me being scum without knowing redtea's alignment is just so contrived

[GuiltyLion]

like gamethrowingly bad if you're town

[GuiltyLion]

I just think you're scum basically GL, redtea is more likely town than not but it doesn't matter that much if we mislim them or not as long as I get my result on you, or I die therefore confirm myself and your slot gets under scrutinity.

ok, so why did you freak out and claim today, several days before your claimed cop check, if it doesn't matter if we mislim redtea or not? why not just flip redtea and if they are town and confirm your suspicions (or even if they're scum and you think I'm bussing), hash this out tomorrow?