Newbie 1882 - Game Over

[teacher]

I read while waiting for brass. I didn’t like the demon vote and immediate invite. It I’m also not crazy about Trusts desire to dominate the thread. I’m at a casino tonight so will probably do more in the morning.

[teacher]

I read while waiting for brass. I didn’t like the demon vote and immediate

unvote

. It I’m also not crazy about Trusts desire to dominate the thread. I’m at a casino tonight so will probably do more in the morning.

Ebwop.

[teacher]

Since I had a good go at the casino, I’ll give it a try. Preflop, an IC is 78% likely to role town - the same as you and me.

[teacher]

Hello everyone, glad to start my first game
VOTE: WhyReadThis

Also, xRECKONERx, why did you vote for Zito with no stated reason? Was it random or not?

This side-by-side conversation really tweaked me. It is a question, but seems designed to elicit a defensive answer (Reck’s not the right place to go for that). Moreover it is a question about something you did. Finally, it is a question about an RVS vote in post 11. Seems LAMISTy. Trust – I know your 15 spoke to this a little bit, but can you talk more about it?

[teacher]

1. What is your experience at Mafia

RL years ago; appr. 9 forum games now.

2. How do you play as town

I Obv!town.
[quote="In post 223. How do you play as scum[/quote] I Obv!town.

4. What do you think gives away a player as scum or town

Motivations, probabilities, and associations. For each post, I try to ascertain the

motive

behind it. Does it seem town-motivated or scum-motivated. To be sure, both town and scum have similar objectives, but they arent overlapping. Town is not as afraid of being lynched, because there will be a mislynch at some point; scum knows that their death is 50% of a loss. Town wants to out real analysis to advance the game; scum wants to repeat information that everybody knows so they can appear to be helping without actually doing it. Another key area of difference is in

probabilities

. Here, I cant say it much better than a strategy article from the Wiki (link). I'll talk more about associations tomorrow if Im kicking.

[teacher]

EBWOP

1. What is your experience at Mafia

RL years ago; appr. 9 forum games now.

2. How do you play as town

I Obv!town.

3. How do you play as scum

I Obv!town.

4. What do you think gives away a player as scum or town

Motivations, probabilities, and associations. For each post, I try to ascertain the

motive

behind it. Does it seem town-motivated or scum-motivated. To be sure, both town and scum have similar objectives, but they arent overlapping. Town is not as afraid of being lynched, because there will be a mislynch at some point; scum knows that their death is 50% of a loss. Town wants to out real analysis to advance the game; scum wants to repeat information that everybody knows so they can appear to be helping without actually doing it. Another key area of difference is in

probabilities

. Here, I cant say it much better than a strategy article from the Wiki (link). I'll talk more about associations tomorrow if Im kicking.[/quote]

[teacher]

Chardev, why are you misrepresenting what CT asked? Your vote reason was obviously RVS (unless you're scum in which case props for being honest), but I can see why a newbie would want clarification.

I do not believe that word (Misrepresent) means what you think it means. And its a pretty loaded word. Trust (btw, I use this shortform because its easier to search the game for) asked if a vote was random. Chardev said it was random -- answering the direct question asked, though it turns out it wasn't asked of them.

[teacher]

Also, Zito, why did you switch your vote to UglyDuck? Was their one post suspicious?Also, this came right after Reckoner said he voted for you due to a post where you voted for him, so that seems a little odd to me.

FORCED.

I think that keeping my vote on WhyReadThis is the best decision for now, especially since they confirmed, but have not posted so far. This seems like intentional lurking, especially since they are aware a game is going on. Without any explanation for their absence, I have to suspect them.

FORCED.

Trust, give some consideration to the fact that Zito and Reck know each other and cross-voted just for yuks. Also RVS in my semilimited experience here generally lasts until appr. pg.4 in a 9 player game, with some players hopping about simply to reaction test.

[teacher]

VOTE: Papa Zito

Rule of three.

[teacher]

I believe that the 22% of the time the IC is Skum is out weighed by the 88% of the time they will be Town.

I love an IC who gives 110% My view on the whole shebang is that the IC should be treated the same as any other player, and not get special attention for being the IC. Plus, Im soulreading Zito as town.

[teacher]

I'm pretty damn sure Chronic just used the wrong words to describe RVS (i.e. did not actually mean he wanted to randomly lynch someone). He said this is his first game, and it's far from the first time I've seen newbies have vocabulary problems.

Took all of two seconds to come to that conclusion, so why push a vote instead of discuss what happened, Chardev?

That's a hell of an assumption to make and I'm confused why you'd leap to that conclusion instead of drawing out an actual answer.

I actually was inclined to this view too. Seeing alot of newb there, so its NAI pending further discussion of thoughtprocess and clearing of potential contradictions. But it struck me as the sort of newb who might get scared into lurk regardless of alignment from all the pressue they got all of a sudden.

@Chronic, that would be the worst thing you can do if youre town. Try to come out and talk more. Dont worry about the pressure. At some point this game, I guarantee, a towny will be mislynched. That's not THAT bad. Whereas for scum, getting lynched is half of a loss. So better for town to stand tall, even if they are on the way to the gallows, and try to help their side.

[teacher]

Im done with my spam posting now, fully caught up and I wont do that again.

[teacher]

You clearly have some suspicion of Friend Lando here... why didn't you vote him?

Because a cold read through misses the "feel"/gestalt of a live game, so I wanted to see what both he and the board would say before I voted. Given his comments, I also want to go back and read the timestamps, not just the text. Also, I was surprised nobody (except you, a little) twigged him on it before, so wanted to give the board a chance to react without thinking it would necessarily lead to votes. But I am leaning that way.

[teacher]

Mod: Im low access weekends. I understand the new deadlines/prodtimers and will likely get at least a mobile post in, but just letting you know.

[teacher]

Can someone who has played with Reckoner tell me whether the mindset he is expressing now is normal? I don't want to think someone is being scummy purely because of the way they play.

1. Havent played with him.

2. Disagree with him on meta.

3. His playstyle (and Lefty's open) are relatively common, and took me some adjusting to when I joined the site. I have difficulty reading it, but view it as playstyle rather than alignment.

[teacher]

So far this game Im doing way better at town hunting than scum hunting. And I can see what Lando was saying about the lag.

@Sunny - what slot do you feel strongest on (either way), and why?

@Papa - did Lando's unvote strike you the same way as Chronic's, and why (not)?

[teacher]

Mod: Lando/Trust says his vote is miscounted

Lando-Im working on a longer post. But as a courtesy, bold things for the mod so that they stand out.

[teacher]

…..readslist snipped……
Sunlit Diamond- Diamond gave me the most thorough answers to my questions . . . . .
Teacher- . . . . some of his questions are about relatively inconsequential things.

I disagree with several of your reads. But I only have two real differences, here. (Disagreements happen all the time and aren’t necessarily worth commenting on.)

1. Sunny actually dodged your question 4 in a way I found scummy. They did not provide any actual advice for how to scumhunt outside a falseclaim, a telling omission in a newbgame.

2. You think Im focused on minor things; I think your focused on surface things. Take for example your objection to Papa’s non-answers. That’s too obvious. Look deeper for motivations, which often come out in the minor things (like above).

Who are you TR on right now?

1. If you are good at townhunting this game, who do you townread?

Interesting that Lando repeated the question. But in any event, at the time I made that post, I was townreading Papa, Lefty, and Chardev in order. Id like Lefty to answer the questions pending to him when he made this post tho.

Teacher and Demon should post some reads.

Really weird question. As far as I can tell, you yourself hadn’t posted reads. Papa hadn’t posted reads. Reck hadn’t posted reads. And I had posted a similar number of reads (2, Papa and Lando) as Lefty. Why did you select me and Chronic? This felt like scum fishing for the new way to push. In any event, Im not posting a full readslist yet, though I did share some townleans above, because not enough people are +rand.

It didn't no and I'm not sure what would be similar between the two? Chronic's unvote was basically borne out of panic. Lando clearly explained his thinking. Also by then there had been other unvotes so the pressure was lost anyway.

You and I read Chronic differently. But as for Lando, I saw him as not wanting to stick out of the crowd both times – hopping on and hopping off. But that could well have been confirmation bias from my earlier scumread, which is getting weaker.

[teacher]

he does actually care about getting answers and isn't doing it purely to look busy.

Ill sheep this thinking actually. I was too focused on questions, which I didnt particularly like, but that could just be an experience/approach issue.

VOTE: Sunny[/unvote]. I already talked two issues with 23 (misrep, and non-answer No. 4). In addition, while I agree with the reaction to Chronic in 77, the reaction to Chardev seems over the top.

[teacher]

EBWOP

he does actually care about getting answers and isn't doing it purely to look busy.

Ill sheep this thinking actually. I was too focused on questions, which I didnt particularly like, but that could just be an experience/approach issue.

VOTE: Sunny. I already talked two issues with 23 (misrep, and non-answer No. 4). In addition, while I agree with the reaction to Chronic in 77, the reaction to Chardev seems over the top.

[teacher]

EBWOP No. 2

he does actually care about getting answers and isn't doing it purely to look busy.

Ill sheep this thinking actually. I was too focused on questions, which I didnt particularly like, but that could just be an experience/approach issue.

VOTE: Sunny. I already talked two issues with 23 (misrep, and non-answer No. 4). In addition, while I agree with the reaction to Chronic in 77, the reaction to Chardev seems over the top.

[teacher]

talking about poker

?adonde?

[teacher]

[quote="In post 127, teacher”]

Teacher and Demon should post some reads.

Really weird question.
Snip

Snip
I asked you two specifically because I was having trouble figuring out where you were at reading your isos.[/quote]
How could you tell where Reck was? (And where did you think he was?)

[teacher]

GDI. No more mobile quote fun for me. Sorry.

Teacher and Demon should post some reads.

Really weird question. As far as I can tell, you yourself hadn’t posted reads. Papa hadn’t posted reads. Reck hadn’t posted reads. And I had posted a similar number of reads (2, Papa and Lando) as Lefty. Why did you select me and Chronic? ...... snip

There is no correlation between me, or anyone else posting reads and my request to have you post reads. . . . . snip . . . . I asked you two specifically because I was having trouble figuring out where you were at reading your isos.

How could you tell where Reck was? (And where did you think he was?)

[teacher]

Brass, only three players are not voting, and I’m not one of them

[teacher]

My pool atm is Sunny Delight, Ugly Duck, and Reckoner/Chronic, but its early for L-1 for me especially living in Quietville.

@Lando, talk to me more about Chardev? I liked their early interactions with your slot (the pushback on the IC point, the retraction, and the pushback on Whyreadthis). I loved their reason to get off Zito - something you scum them for, Why do you dislike that when it would have been a no information cluster? And I disagree with you on the Demonic vote -- the "greatest suspect of all time" felt like the sort of loose attention-getting hyperbole that would run counter to their interests?

I no longer really scum you (I do take Papa and Lefty's point), but I want to understand your process better.

[teacher]

Nine posts in a day? Town better get its poop in a group.

[teacher]

Five votes is instant death. Once someone gets four votes it is important to say “intent to hammer” and wait rather than just vote, to allow times for claims or reconsideration.

[teacher]

I’m going to do a weekend catchup read tonight in a couple hours, but I wanted to float my current thinking while I was away before doing that. I’m leaning towards a light policy of Chronic. The momentum behind UD has been too easy - no serious counterwagon push or opposition is making me think scum is happy with that staying in the lead. I don’t think we can get quiet town to coalesce behind another slot fast enough given the pools I have seen so far. That leaves Chronic, who is either:

• town that scum will never nk and be a liability at lylo because of their newbness (tbh I find this more likely but am still ok with the outcome)
  
• scum that got told to hide behind the newb card (quite possible)

[teacher]

Also for lando and the other newbs. We want to be at L-1 in about 24 hours, so that there is time for a claim and finding an alternative wagon. But I will talk more on my thinking quite late tonight.

[teacher]

Because Chronic has been scum and null read and my sense is that they are the best compromise lynch. I townread Chardev as ive previously explained (still mobile so not linking). What I was trying to express is that my acumread of UD has gotten weaker. I’d still rather SUnny but Chronic has been promoted to second and wanted to see if I could start some movement before I make a longer post with the argument and theory because that will come too late for most people.

[teacher]

Duck aint a newb.

[teacher]

@Stargazer: Welcome. I very light townleaned Lefty, but would love to get some more action into the game.

I just read over everything since Friday, and tbh, it wasnt enough to convince me to change my pools or reads. So Im going to speak briefly about my approach to D1 in a newb game.

Its 7/2. Distancing is definitely a thing. But Bussing -- scum voting scum when serious lynch time comes -- is more of a D2+ thing. So to lynch scum today, we need to convince a supermajority of town to all land in the same place 5/7, or 71%.

Thus far, UD is the common suspect. And I get why. They were high on my lynchpool. But my issue is that, even after I made my pool and L-1 leaning apparent, there has been no serious counterpush. There is no serious counter push or wagon now. Simply, I dont think this is scum, because if it was I would expect a little more activity in general. I think its been quiet in part because scum are happy to let town burn itself.

So I want to find another compromise target. It doesnt look like my number 1 candidate, Sunny, is happening, even though nobody has told me whats wrong with my case. So the next spot on my list is Chronic. To be honest, I agree with Stargazer that this is probably lynchbait. My read is pure null (so 75% chance of town). But that's my issue. If I cant catch scum, Id like to at least remove town liabilities. And if Chronic is town (an open question, hes certainly done nothing to help town), scum is never going to nightkill him because he isnt advancing or solving the game.

[teacher]

Fair enough points.

VOTE: UglyDuck

That is L-1. I will deqrhrunnel anyone who quickhammers.

[teacher]

If it does become one post a separate intent please and give time.

[teacher]

Since intent has been out for a while, and I'm going to be offline for the next bit, I'm going to make a twilight ish post in case the hammer comes.

I find it interesting that nobody is saying anything. Interesting that everybody is on one of two wagons (given intent) or not voting at all. Interesting that, until the intent, the wagons were not cross-voting.

If Duck flips scum, I'm most suspicious of Reck. If Duck flips town, I'm going to be a lot more open to both Chardev and Skygazer.

[teacher]

Also I don’t think the hammer should fall until 24hrs after the prod (937 my time) to give the optimal chance of replacing Chronic

[teacher]

VOTE: Sunny. Don't want the hammer in the air, so mostly going back to where I was for a holding pattern.

UD, why the full roleclaim now, rather than just a PR (to leave ambiguity over whether you could be protected)? Any softs to point to?

But I do have to reconsider the board, and also check out the possible setups, since I think that basically assures us of two PRs but am not positive off the top of my head.

[teacher]

I went back to the setup, and am even more confused by UD's play.

All UD's claim tells us, if true, is that we are in Row 2. So, if true, scum knows exactly what the setup is. Thus, they know whether or not they can fake claim Tracker to save themselves (C2). And they know whether or not to target town!UD tonight (probably no in A2, yes in B2). So claiming your exact role was a terrible move if youre town. But I'm still inclined to believe it, and certainly inclined to lynch elsewhere today.

But for the rest of the board I will comment that it is always worth it to trade a PR for a scum in a 7-2 setup. Cop, Neapolitan, or JK are counterclaims to UD's claim. IT would be worthwhile to have a counter.

Finally, UD, I will echo Papa's question.

[teacher]

@Lando: I'm genuinely not sure. In my limited experience here, Tracker is the best role for scum to fakeclaim, because of the column C setups where town only has one PR. But I don't know enough to answer.

Your question, though, made me look back through the posts. And I saw for the first time that Zito urged Duck to "fully" claim the role rather than just signal PR.

@Zito: Why would "fully" claiming a role (particularly a protective role) be better than a partial PR claim? (To be clear, I expect you to answer as an IC.)

And to shade you answer, I don't believe it is better to fully claim in late afternoon. Someone who vaguely claims PR is already 50% scum, but can be forced to hard claim the next morning such that if they are town, scum has to guess whether or not they are the protective PR or whether they will be protected. Here, your direction took that option away.

VOTE: Zito

[teacher]

My issue is that we aren’t going to Lynch either “pr” or “jk” D1. And Lando’s 229 could have been made D2 morning, after a night of ambiguous protection and forcing a hard claim. Bottom line, Claiming PR rather than specific Role is almost always the best play for the first claim, and I would expect you to know that. But I’m commuting so will wait on the rest of my thoughts.

[teacher]

I think you have to keep scum. But for heal my hardest tr at this point is trust.

[teacher]

And no, my question is why you claimed JK rather than just vague PR

[teacher]

I’m still on mobile. My gut without following the links and examining it is that it overread somethings but I will comment on it when I am back at a computer I trust.

[teacher]

So let’s start at the start. Trading one PR for one scum is completely worth it. And Cop, Neapolitan, or Jailkeeper is a counterclaim to duck.

SO IF YOU ARE COP, NEAPOLITAN, OR JK, CLAIM NOW

.
Sorry for screaming, just wanted to make sure everyone got that point.

Second, let’s go on to Lando’s excellent observation: There is only 1/9 setups without one of those three roles. So, in the absence of a counterclaim, there is an 89% chance Duck’s claim is true. I’ll pretty much bank that for now.

Finally, let’s talk about the meaning of town!duck’s near-lynch experience. The most-common arrangement for a town lynch is to have one scum on, one scum off the wagon. The second most common is to have both scum on. It is incredibly rare to have a townie lynch without scum involved. So for now (and until there is a counterclaim), I am treating Ugly Duck as essentially flipped and am primarily interested in lynching on his wagon.

Obviously, Im not so interested in lynching myself. Nor am I interested in Lando – he’s the one who made the observation that got me here, and he’s been advancing the game throughout even if I didn’t like his style at first. So Im left with Papa, Skygazer, and Chardev – my earlier townread pool (this crow tastes delicious).

Chardev is out because he is where all the other votes were (remember, one scum on, one scum off). Plus, he was a decently strong townread for the reasons Ive already discussed with Lando in 156. Skygazer was more of a gut townread, but I like that they pushed Duck even after I expressed my reservations – more in front of a mislynch than I think scum would want to be. On the other hand, I really don’t like Papa pushing Duck for a full claim, and haven’t seen all that much gamesolving from him so far (he doesn’t get the same credit for 220 because it was post intent, but I do give some credit for good questions).

So that’s why I moved my vote where I did. My pool is (Papa, Skygazer, and Chronic). Im going to respond to a few other posts now.

[teacher]

Thoughts on a "Heal" vote pool for my target tonight?

Assuming your claim is true, you

MUST

try to JK scum. Here is why: Scum know exactly what setup we are in. If it is B2 or C2, they will kill you, not anybody else. Thus, 66% of the time, your "heal" wont matter. Better for you to try to prevent your death by putting the killer in jail.

[teacher]

Day 1 ends in (expired on 2018-07-26 21:00:00)

Assuming Chronic doesn't pick up his prod in the next 40 mins, is having 2 slots double replaced sufficiently "extreme" for an extension?

[teacher]

Danke.

[teacher]

Lando asked me to respond to his Zito read. Im going to spoiler the blow by blow. The bottom line is that the process reminded me of why I had soulread Papa as town. But it's not strong enough to overcome my new suspicion of the duck wagon (explained above), nor my dislike of the "full role claim" advice, which I will discuss after the spoiler.

Spoiler: Response to Lando's PbPA of Papa

My read of Zito has transitioned from null to scum, here are the reasons(apology for the long post):

• since youre new here, I will suggest you experiment with forum coding to make your posts more visually appealing (lists/hard returns). It adds charisma weight/subconscious appeal to any cases you make. But thats a total NAI aside.

In32, Zito votes for UglyDuck(who I believe is really jailkeeper) because of one post without any questioning beforehand, it feels opportunistic.

• I think you overread an RVS-type vote (and have done throughout). Not that youre wrong, I just dont give it as much weight. And again as a play-style aside, you dont want to include your weak points in a case, because it is too easy for scum to refute those and ignore the strong ones and still convince people.

In 36, Zito does not give an answer to the question of why he voted UglyDuck, which hardly helps the town

• I actually originally liked this post, because I saw it as his "twigging" (search my ISO) of you for asking too obvious questions. Again, fmpov, you are overreading this (but again, its not that you are wrong, this is just different approaches).

In 46, Zito says people need to post more often but spends 48,50,53,55, and 64 doing nothing to advance the game.

• Here again, we just come at the posts you list differently. I liked these in real time because I saw it as an IC trying to get you past the surface-level things. I agree it doesnt particularly encourage others to get involved, but I didnt see it as doing "nothing." So I view these posts as mostly NAI, and 64 as possibly towny in reaction to the shitwagon.

In 69, Zito questions Demonic about what a random lynch would accomplish without saying why that is a bad idea or wondering whether Demonic is a new player with little knowledge of how the game is played.(I don't think Demonic is scum because he would have been coached by the other mafia player so such a mistake would not be made.) It feels like he concludes Demonic is being scummy without considering the possibility he is new.

• I think you are assuming quite a lot here, and overlooking the fact that Papa is pressing chronic based on the exact words chronic used. I agree with Papa that the scummiest thing Chronic did was the immediate unvote, so I understand Papa questioning it. But I assigned less "scum" points than Papa because the three easiest things to confuse are newbs, scums, and PRs --> all are more likely to be guarded and defensive. Bottom line, this was another post I liked in real time and dont see much scum justification.

In78, Zito says Diamond's conclusion about Demonic was an assumption, but wasn't his too?

• Zito didnt make one - he asked a question.

79 Is another post that added nothing to the game, why did Zito feel the need to post this?

• I had assumed this was an implied townread and some fun between familar friends, but I dont actually know that. Either way, I think you are overreading it.

In 97, Zito goes on for paragraphs about how the wagon on Demonic should have been kept, but ends the post by suggesting UglyDuck needs to be suspected. That feels really abrupt and odd, not at all fitting with the rest of his points.

• Its OK to have multiple points in a post. And the points on Chronic were sound theory, and a good teaching moment. I do agree with you that the cheerleading a townlynch without a case is minorly scummy.

In 122, Zito does not ask Reckoner for reads on everyone or multiple people, instead he is only concerned about opinions of him. This also seems weird, Zito just asked for it out of the blue.

• I think Reck addressed this, but as with Lefty you are ignoring preexisting relationships.

In 190, Zito asks for Demonic to vote for someone, this may not seem suspicious, but that request seemed to be intended to bait Demonic into doing something scummy.

• Again, an assumption. FMPOV at the time, it felt like he was trying to get Demonic to do SOMETHING so that the slot could be better sorted. But I could equally be wrong.

In 217, Zito says posting reads is a bad idea(which I don't get since it it usually rather obvious who is really hard to lynch) and asks for a fullclaim.
In 230, Zito doesn't like the unvoting of Duck despite my argument that he is probably Jailkeeper, which makes it seem as if he is still pushing for him to be lynched for a reason that is currently not fully explained.

These are my biggest issues with Zito as well, which is why I left them outside the spoiler.

• I cannot come up with a good argument for a fullclaim D1. I have seen ICs in the past argue against it for the precise reason I have given -- a vague "PR" can be sorted with a hardclaim the next morning while preserving some WIFOM protection even if they are the protective. I would be stunned if an IC didnt know of that viewpoint at the least, even if they disagreed with it.
  
• Zito's explanation for the fullclaim also rings hollow, because it ignores that the same benefits can be obtained the next morning, at lower risk. And Zito says that his role as an IC is to tell the truth only about game mechanics, not necessarily my theory question. But the very page he linked to at the start of the game (here) says that IC's also have to tell the truth about game theory (like whether it makes sense to full-claim PR or partial claim): "Never lie about game theory to get a tactical advantage . . . . make sure that whatever theory does get covered is fully explained and understood by all." (note - I do NOT scumread Zito for not knowing ICs cant lie about theory; I scumread him because I disagree with his approach and am pointing out that he is honor bound on both mechanics and theory for his benefit going foward).
  
• Finally, like you, I see no potential advantage for leaving a hammer in the air after a PR claim when we only had three hours to deadline, so I thought Zito's criticism of the unvotes was quite odd.

[teacher]

*three days to deadline.

[teacher]

Lando: Im not going to put too much effort into your question right now, Ill be glad to go back after the game if you want to chat more. Without going PbP, it felt like you were doing some surface level reads and aggressive questions (including ignoring RVS) -- basically trying to dominate the thread and appear to be solvey (powerwolf) in a way that would get defensive responses even from town (enabling mislynches). But I didnt have a good feel for how slow this game was going (so less dominating), nor your willingness to engage and openness to other views if people did interact (so less causing defensiveness). As you can tell, Ive turned around, primarily because I do think you are eager newbtown and processing everything.

[teacher]

How can you not see a good reason to fullclaim when someone is at L-1 and someone else has stated intent to hammer? That is like, basic best practices.

Same question I asked to Papa: How is a fullclaim ("JK") better than a partial claim ("PR") AT THIS POINT rather than start of D2?

1. We can get the fullclaim in the morning, allowing time for counterclaims and to lynch the claimants without risk of losing the game.
2. But he can get the benefit of scum not knowing whether or not he will be protected, making him a less likely kill target.

I have read several times that a partial claim is best D1. Im open to being told that that is wrong. But I will need reasoning rather than appeals to authority.

[teacher]

Thoughts on a "Heal" vote pool for my target tonight?

Assuming your claim is true, you

MUST

try to JK scum. Here is why: Scum know exactly what setup we are in. If it is B2 or C2, they will kill you, not anybody else. Thus, 66% of the time, your "heal" wont matter. Better for you to try to prevent your death by putting the killer in jail.

You don't see any other merit in this idea?

If you are asking the board to run two votes-I think it is more complicated than can be worked when we have to get consensus to a lynch in three days. And, as Lando correctly understood, I think you should JK your best bet for scum tonight because you are likely to be scum's target.

[teacher]

How can you not see a good reason to fullclaim when someone is at L-1 and someone else has stated intent to hammer? That is like, basic best practices.

Same question I asked to Papa: How is a fullclaim ("JK") better than a partial claim ("PR") AT THIS POINT rather than start of D2?

1. We can get the fullclaim in the morning, allowing time for counterclaims and to lynch the claimants without risk of losing the game.
2. But he can get the benefit of scum not knowing whether or not he will be protected, making him a less likely kill target.

I have read several times that a partial claim is best D1. Im open to being told that that is wrong. But I will need reasoning rather than appeals to authority.

Because full claim opens up actual town PRs to counterclaim and bag a dead scum if it's a fakeclaim.

see point 1 above. That benefit is equally available tomorrow, without as much drawback.

That horse has been beaten. Im interested in seeing both Papa's and Skygazer's reactions to the evenings events.

[teacher]

Skygazer was more of a gut townread, but I like that they pushed Duck even after I expressed my reservations – more in front of a mislynch than I think scum would want to be.

One semi-reservation to this point. Skygazer's counter to my Chronic push would also make sense if they were partnered with Chronic. But this is an extraordinarily unlikely preflip-associational point, so not entitled to much weight. Just noting it in case I ISO myself and trust my thoughts too much.

[teacher]

The smartest play for them is to remove the player they're going to have the hardest time getting a mislynch o

presumably, with a semi-protective role claimed, this objection has been overtaken by events? Or are you still opposed?

[teacher]

Most salient point is that we have a live JK claim so if your PM says cop, Neapolitan, or JK, please counter.

[teacher]

thanks Brass. And Lando-while I’m leery of the slot, I view the absence as NAI since they said they were on PTO doing GISH.

[teacher]

You're making assumptions about scum team power that you shouldn't be.

Where, and what assumption?

As for the theory bit, lets chat more after the game. Im getting the sense that you genuinely believe it (because "there isn't a tomorrow to evaluate"). But I genuinely disagree (because the undisputed existence of tomorrow has to be taken into account in deciding the best play today, and the fullclaim - and any counter - can come tomorrow). Speaking solely for myself, I would not lynch someone who partially claimed "PR" on D1 because the lynch is better used to sort other slots. But youre probably right that this theory point isnt enough to wagon you when I liked the rest of your play.

VOTE: Stargazer

[teacher]

FFS. VOTE: Skygazer

[teacher]

You're making assumptions about scum team power that you shouldn't be.

Where, and what assumption?

Why is scum roleblocker not a possibility?

It is a possibility -- 33% in our current world. But Im not seeing how that affects any of the discussion? (Sorry, Im a bit sleep deprived so if it seems like it should be obvious, Im just totally missing it right now).

[teacher]

woah cowboy any reason for that them vote there

Duck's wagon analysis and PoE of liking the other people more.

[teacher]

You're making assumptions about scum team power that you shouldn't be.

Where, and what assumption?

Why is scum roleblocker not a possibility?

It is a possibility -- 33% in our current world. But Im not seeing how that affects any of the discussion? (Sorry, Im a bit sleep deprived so if it seems like it should be obvious, Im just totally missing it right now).

Roleblocker trumps JK. If the roleblocker exists, the JK is getting permablocked. You don't seem to be accounting for this possibility in your posting.

Im not sure how it should affect my posts/views. JK being left alive and permablocked is not a terrible outcome, because that means Dr is unblocked and able to save very likely town. What am I missing?

[teacher]

Oh, @Zito, before it gets lost in the shuffle, can you explain why you thought we were too quick to unvote a PR claim? (I just find it jarring, especially now that you are using those unvotes to justify your position on the theory bit)

[teacher]

he's not cleared by any means and we'd be unwise to treat him as such.

In the absence of a counterclaim, youd agree he is 90% likely to be town, right? So Rand+15?

You agree that good PR play is to appear somewhat scummy so as not to attract the NK right? Doesn't that undermine 220 (not completely, because PRs should try to solve too, but at least somewhat)?

That post was a high degree of shade to be putting at him given the current board state.

*****

And yes, my instructions were for UD because we dont know whether there is a doc or not -- to use your words from 275, I was exactly not "making assumptions about scum team power." I still dont get how the existence of a roleblocker matters for my instructions to UD, because he would be blocked whether he tried to keep scum or whether he tried to heal. In other words, if we are in column A, UD's night actions are irrelevant. If we are in columns B or C, he should try to keep scum. Thus, in all circumstances, UD should try to keep scum.

[teacher]

Teacher and Zito, what do you think of the Chardev wagon? I'm not sure whether to include him in the lynchpool or not because of the possibility that the wagon is scum-driven and two of the people in my lynchpool are on it. Do you believe he should be a suspect or think that the votes should be moved elsewhere?

1. He needs an avatar.

2. Im less interested than in my three person pool, mostly for the reasons I previously discussed with you about a hundred posts ago.

3. But Im not sure I ever really understood anybody's case on him other than yours, so if Reck/Sunny/others want to speak on it, I will certainly listen.

[teacher]

I dunno what Rand+15 means.

A term Ive picked up from this site that discussed the strength of any read. Here, taking any slot (including mine) at random, it is 78% likely to be town.

In the absence of a counterclaim

, UD is 90% likely to be town. So mechanically, UD is rand+12 town (it becomes rand +15 once I factor in my own slot).

Normally, I use +rand in a less mechanical sense, to enumerate the confidence level of my read (e.g. - rand+15->pretty darn confident; rand+10->leaning; rand+5->close to within the margin of error)

[teacher]

(testing something for purposes of another game entirely. This post is random).

[teacher]

(this completes the test).

[teacher]

As for game relevance - I will comment on your case Lando after Sunny either drops or picks up his prod, and Chardev has a chance to react to the role claim and numerous posts that have followed. The short version is Im not sold, but 168 is the post I have the most questions about.

[teacher]

So let’s start at the start. Trading one PR for one scum is completely worth it. And Cop, Neapolitan, or Jailkeeper is a counterclaim to duck.
SO IF YOU ARE COP, NEAPOLITAN, OR JK, CLAIM NOW.
Sorry for screaming, just wanted to make sure everyone got that point.

just cuz it was three pages ago.

[teacher]

snip

Well thats quite alot of blendy reads without reasoning. We have next to no information about your slot, and you jump on the biggest wagon without really providing any case (at least that I can understand).

Why are you sus of Chardev?
Why do you town Sunny?

[teacher]

Prodding SunlitDiamond, this is the final prod

Pure question if the deadline is hard or whether it will be 48hr post replacement (if any)?

[teacher]

@ceejay - thanks for the case. Speak on sunny and Papa?

[teacher]

Chardev, I assume you are not cop, neapolitan or JK?

[teacher]

Sorry Brass. Good luck. @Micc, FYI, Sunlit Diamond dropped their prod and should be replaced.

[teacher]

Our pools overlap on ceejay. Just for my information, why about sky is keeping them out of your pool?

[teacher]

Fair enough, thanks.

[teacher]

Hmmm. Only player on both wagons who previously called Chardev lynchbait then changes to voting them without explanation. Yea count me out for Chardev and even more interested in Sky.

[teacher]

The deadline is 48hrs after the replacement, per Brass response to me yesterday. So it is essentially paused.

[teacher]

What’s your real lynch pool// who is your favorite and why? Other than providing good reasons to get me on the duck wagon, your slot hasn’t done much content so I’d like, in Papas verbiage, “more words”

[teacher]

glad you’re back. But Chardev isn’t voting himself.

[teacher]

With UD's claim my lynchpool is kind of down to {Chardev, Reck, CJ} for now for very weak reasons. I'm not really confident in any of those so I wanted to stir things up with the L-1 vote and see what happens.

I’m surprised you’re mostly focused offwagon. If your scumreads are weak can you give me a specific reason PaPas not in the pool?

[teacher]

Most important thing given when SUnny disappeared is confirming whether you counterclaim JK (as cop, Neapolitan, or JK)

[teacher]

We are rapidly sliding towards the deadline. I’m relatively indifferent between Sky and CJ, so will provide intent on CJ if that’s others’ preference. I’m a bit less interested in Chardev but will go there tomorrow to hammer if needed just to get a lynch through.

[teacher]

@Papa - any interest in giving Lando a hammer by joining the Sky wagon?

[teacher]

I'm still hoping for a ceejay wagon to happen,

Im still open to this one too, so if it gets bigger I'll come there.

[teacher]

VOTE: CeeJay. Its my last day at the job I have had for 10 years, so its been a pretty long one. The vote is mostly for Chronic stuff, with CeeJay's blendy reads on entrance. But even if I question Sky, I agree with him. My reads as a whole are pretty weak this game.

[teacher]

I’m on vacation so mostly mobile posting this week.

My supposition is that we are in column A. But I’d like UD to claim who they JKed.

What I find most interesting is that most of the duck wagon (all except Chardev) wound up on another town target.

[teacher]

@CT: I’m still pretty weak between Papa and Sky. Sky’s posts late yesterday seemed pretty good, but maybe prompted by survivalism once they came under attention. Papa hasn’t done anything that makes me really suspect him other than the full claim, but also hasn’t done any affirmative casing or solving. Maybe it’s BoP fallacy, but I’m just getting pinged a little. (@Papa - now that I have explained my advice to UD, can you tell me more about why you thought it made assumptions about the scum team?)

I also have some interesting off-wagon thoughts, but ones I want to wait until I’m on a computer to go through.

@UD we will need something today, since we have a much shorter time to arrive at consensus.

[teacher]

I promised some off-wagon thoughts. Well here they are.

You will recall back in 242 I talked about the most common setup being one scum on, one scum off a town wagon. Well, let's look at the two town wagons: (And yes, Im treating Duck as town, since its 90% they are.)

The last votecount before the Duck roleclaim was in post 212. The below updates that to reflect my subsequent move and Chardev's intent:

• Duck
  : Zito, Lefty, Lando, Teacher, Chardev (intent)
  
• Chardev: Sunny,
  Duck
  , Reck
  
• Not voting:
  Chronic

Now that we have flipped CeeJay (Chronic), I think it is fairly certain there is scum between HeWhoSwims (Sunny) and Reck. This inference is more reliable than the following discussion of 402, since it occurred before explicit conversation about typical wagon arrangements (that scum could take into account in PT). I will also add that I believe Chardev's only possible partner is HWS/Sunny. Reck moved there when it was a viable wagon; whereas Sunny was relatively voteparked and could have changed his vote and claimed it was based on too early material.

And here is the D1 lynchcount (Im not simply quoting Brass's 402 because his formatting is hard to colorcode):

• Ceejay
  : Zito, Sky, Teacher, HeWhoSwims, Lando
  
• Chardev: Reck
  
• Sky: Chardev,
  CeeJay
  
  
• Not voting:
  Duck

Once again we have Reck off wagon, but this time with Chardev. Less reliable, though, since scum could now be discussing wagon setup, and thus scum!HeWhoSwims could decide to join with his partner. The one thing this setup strengthens is my conclusion that Chardev most likely is not teamed with Reck

Thus, through VCA (and based off of knowing my alignment), I think I have narrowed the scum down into two pools:

• One in Reck/HeWhoSwims
  
• One in Sky/Zito/Lando/Chardev

Due to the size of these pools, Id rather lynch between Reck and HWS. But Im not voting until I can assess the JK and how it impacts my reads.

[teacher]

@Papa - now that I have explained my advice to UD, can you tell me more about why you thought it made assumptions about the scum team?

What's this referring to?

Your 275, which felt like a backhanded push at me. I explained why it was wrong in 288, and I dont believe you ever reacted to that. Do you think Im right (and no assumptions were made), or do you still think I was making assumptions?

[teacher]

I get what you’re saying but we also have a relatively limited amount of time before deadline.

[teacher]

speaking of, Prod?

[teacher]

Thanks

[teacher]

Another mechanical thing we can talk about while waiting for UD is the tracker claim strategy. Since most in here are experienced, I will raise whether it makes sense to do it without getting too much into the details of it. If you haven’t heard of it, ask and I will like an explanation.

My thinking is that it does make sense today. The lack of any claim will lock UD as town. In contrast, a claim does not guarantee anything (C2). But it can be beneficial:

• a doctor could subsequently claim and confirm that there is scum between UD and the tracker claimant, guaranteeing us to catch a scum by D3.
• The tracker would have to claim action and results, which could be interesting in its own right and against UD’s JK claim.
• As implied by the last, the claimant becomes 50/50 town or scum

THIS IS ME SPITBALLING. PLEASE LET OTHERS ASSESS THE THEORY BEFORE ACTING ON IT.

PEDIT: five days. In a town that struggles to get 10 posts a day. So yes, im in favor of talking.

[teacher]

And the first bullet above is wrong, because the doctor could be fake too. Clearly need to think about this more, but would like others to weigh in.

[teacher]

@Pap: I brought it up again because I didn’t understand where you were coming from. I had thought your comment was based on telling Duck to act as a cop rather than a doctor even though multiple scum were left. Your clarification now makes it make total sense. (Also, on the original questions, I thought the revelation of a PR might make sharing reads more acceptable since it’s less likely scum is going for pure town rather than Pr hunting. But I accept different views there)

Also, thanks for the position on tracker claim. I’m pretty divided myself. Can you help me think through it by posting why you feel the way you do?

[teacher]

Question for Brass or board: would a replacement learn who UD JKEd N1?

[teacher]

@Brass - can you also prod Chardev?

[teacher]

No worries Mate. Thanks for everything.

[teacher]

There’s no chance Skygazer was the NK target absent some really strange scum play

There is some small chance that scum did not NK for the wifom of the JK situation. I have seen only one intentional no-nk-N1 in the games I have played or read, so it is a very small chance but still possible.

There is a 33% chance we have a doctor, assuming UDs claim to be true.

That means functionally there is about a 35% chance UD didn’t prevebt the NK. Not high enough.

VOTE: Sky

[teacher]

Yea I just don’t see software or a reason they would PR hunt w you.

[teacher]

*softs. F’ing auto.

[teacher]

Zito: look at 1881 that just finished, the scum team killed off a player who was playing kind of scummy

because they suspected he held a power role

even without a crumb

Liar liar pants on fire.

I think I might rather kill Flicker then FF. Reason being is that this will throw a lot of WIFOM into the game if people are trying to figure out why Flicker was killed.

Not PR hunting. No belief they were a PR. But I will grant you that Flicker does seem like a weird kill given my cold read of the game.

But saying a weird thing

can

happen does not make it

likely

to happen. Even if we have a doctor (1/3), there is no guarantee they stopped the NK (and in fact only a 1/6 chance they did). Scum thrive on possibilities; town should play based on probabilities.

My vote's not moving. I know there's no point in trying to convince scum that they are scum. Mostly I'm posting this for the others.

[teacher]

No I’ve thought about a townflip (otherwise I wouldn’t have read Newb 1881). But the play there is obvious. It’s no lynch mylo D-3 and massclaim lylo D4.

[teacher]

I’m back on mobile. I don’t see much benefit to discussing reads when you’re the obvious lynch simple because I think it benefits scum.

I’m weaker than you are on Lando, but still a townlean. I’m null on Papa; as I had indicated you and he were in about the same place before the JK claim.

As for UD, he was 89% town yesterday baded on pure claim, and higher today with the fact that he was a good track target (and there must be a tracker in the 11% scum). So he’s town afaic.

Between Reck and HWS, I need to reread.

[teacher]

Also we are all forgetting Chardev.

[teacher]

CT/Lando: that’s some pretty odd wording for your views on Chardev. IIRC, you made a pretty big case on them D1. So “beginning” to suspect feels pretty off. But I’m still mobile so will have to check the ISO later.

[teacher]

If I flip town how likely is UD-scum to you?

Sky presumably if you’re hung up on UD, you think a doc prevented a night kill and there is a tracker. So why aren’t you arguing in favor of a tracker claim? I really am ambivalent in that, but it seems the only way for town you to solve.

Also kindly don’t drop the hammer until Chardev picks up the prod or is replaced. It will be helpful whichever way Sky flips to know more about that slot.

[teacher]

Pedit kinda: yea that.

[teacher]

I think Zito is town here

why

Why do you think Zito is scum? Like the only reason you've given is lying low but you've kind of been doing the same thing here

Can you (Sky) answer the question? I appreciate that you turned it around, and dont disagree with your own questions. But can you answer it too?

[teacher]

UD is a yes without reasons.
Papa is a no without reasons.

I’m genuinely conflicted. I see pluses (the only way we can fully clear UD and basically incriminate Sky) and minuses (scum can fake claim and coast in C2; even in B2 it removes the quasi-investigative since they have to be JKEd so they can’t soft a clear if sky flips scum)

I think I’m a soft yes rn,but I really am open to being convinced.

[teacher]

Ah. I suppose that is a version of “hypo”, which I’ve only heard of for cop.

Fair enough on the real claim idea. I’ll let the idea die it’s slow ignominious death.

[teacher]

I’m pretty inclined to Reck as town for reasons, but twining somebody aren’t them. I am more used to seeing scum defending town or throwing out a “new” read that isn’t really justified precisely for the towncred you are giving.

[teacher]

Teacher, do you think the quickness with which everyone is agreeing to lynch Sky means she's not scum?

Different day, different story. Sky is the only lynch that really makes sense given the objective facts. (Yes, I sound like Reck. But I said it before him). The ease/lack of a counterpush could well be their partner trying to claim towncred if it is scum.

Tbh I have some concerns Sky is town just from how they have attacked today. But I can’t get any other lynch to make sense in my head with the known facts and statistical odds.

[teacher]

Welcome Eragon, glad to have you. And thank you for the new perspective on Lando. I have been getting gut pings, so its nice to read a case even if Im not interested in going there currently.

Going to do a quick reactions post while I am at a computer.

First, this town needs some statistics lessons.

Spoiler: stats class

given that if there are two mafia goons, claiming jailkeeper has a one third chance of being cc'd instead of a one ninth chance.

False. Still a 2/3 chance of being CC'ed -- C1 and C2 (cop and JK). Thats why tracker is the better fakeclaim; only 1/3 chance of being CC'ed - C3. [now I see Reck covered this]

242 the 89% is not true, because of what I said to ugly duck

??? Lets see:

• cop, neapolitan, and JK are counterclaims to Duck.
• 89% of set ups (8/9) have a cop, neapolitan, or JK.
• No counterclaim occurred.
• See also above; even if scum!duck knows we are in C, tracker is the better claim.

Second, I actually cant let go of my tracker claim idea, in part due to Sky's play and in part due to this conversation.

If we're in tracker/doctor then the tracker would still be under the assumption we're in tracker/JK

Oh. Duh.
Hrmm. So if there's a doctor, they should straight up claim so we can get a 1:1 trade and try to let the Tracker get a result.

FFS, are people not reading what I write? This is why I have been softpushing the tracker claim idea. Because a tracker is overvalued as an investigative (since nullchecks are not clears absent a scumlynch) but

• the absence of a claim clears UD, and makes it 50/50 we have a doctor, and so reduces the incrimination of Sky, and
• the presence of a claim either convicts Sky or allows a doctor to counter duck (greatly increasing the likelihood of a scum death by D3.)

I had let it go since nobody has seemed interested, but I havent gotten answers when asking for reasons, and this conversation is making me feel like nobody is even thinking it through. I am very open to being wrong, I just need to know why.

only if they're a rolecop

If this is in response to 553, I really dont understand and think youre wrong. On any given night, scum do not find out if they are targeted to be JKed until after the fact; they know if there is a JK if they rolecop the right person on an earlier nioght.

[teacher]

If this is in response to 553, I really dont understand and think youre wrong. On any given night, scum do not find out if they are targeted to be JKed until after the fact; they know if there is a JK if they rolecop the right person on an earlier nioght.

What do you mean? The question was if scum know they're JKed.
They wouldn't get a response unless it's an investigative role that gets a result. So that's only JK.

Maybe we need an interpreter for the two of us, since I dont get yours either (nor the first). ........and in writing it up I think I've deciphered it.

The only scum that would know for certain whether they had been JKed is a Rolecop, because they would get a "no result" report on any investigation they had tried to carry out when jailed.

My b.

[teacher]

Finally, just for Lando's benefit, the tracker claim thing is not just PR hunting. It is a school of thought that is slightly common here, even if I am ordinarily opposed. Here's a decent write-up of it in general, though lacking the game-specific reasons why I am advocating for it in these circumstances.

[teacher]

Also. I think you misunderstood my question.

Is a mafia told if they are RB’d BEFORE they submit night actions?

I’m asking this becuase, if yes, then mafia probably hit the docotor(guessing here) and if no, mafia may have been caught by tracker, which means that the other mafia is probably a weaker townread than skygazer, which is kinda odd. This is a lot
Of tinfoil, but I still want to know he answer yes/no

The straight answer is no. But your post is v weird.

I don’t know why you think Mafia hit the doctor if they knew they were RBed. FYI doc can’t save themselves.
I don’t know why you think tracker caught someone and is staying silent.

I don’t get it. But I’m not sure it matters at all.

[teacher]

Bueller?

[teacher]

I’m all kind of conflicted, way more than I normally am. I apologize for the lifetime movie conclusion of this post, but I need somebody’s help.

Several things along the way (as noted in my intro and random posts throughout) have pinged me about Lando. But I also grok - and respect - what both Zito and Lefty said about him. Ordinarily, I do not allow other people’s reads to change my own (instead I use them to adjust my confidence levels, rather than the read itself), but here I have let it change Lando into a town lean.

Similarly, I found duck scummy D1 and a bit today, but he is my strongest townread by pure mechanics.

My scumreads are sky and Reck. But I’ve made posts calling both town today. I think it’s because, as with Duck, my case on them is mechanical rather than motivational.

Bottom line my head is in one place but my heart another. I’ve not had that happen before in a mafia game. I am going to be voting sky absent a bombshell in the next 24 he’s, but if anybody has thoughts on how to deal with my conflict better I’m all ears.

[teacher]

Really don’t like that HWS didn’t realize Chardev is gone as a comment on his engagement, but not sure if there’s anything alignment indicative in there rather than wifom.

[teacher]

- #225 is just inaccurate. I have the weakest of the town roles - trying to get a CC out is just asking for roles that can out Skum to make themselves known.

First, please link posts when discussing them. Second, 225 is absolutely accurate. I doubled down on it in 242 in screaming red text. 242 is the post that you yourself had said made you change your mind about me. So I don’t get how you think the same point made earlier is scummy pr hunting, but is at least semi-towny when made later. I swear to god if you weren’t mechanically town I’d lynch you as this really seems like motivated contradictory shade. But I don’t think it can be. My scumdar is broken.

[teacher]

also also - someone else should unvote so they are not at L-2 for the same reasons.

it would be bad to allow scum to double tap town why??????

[teacher]

I believe that he's reading too much into minor things and making arguments based on his interpretation of the intent behind posts.

Since this is fundamentally my approach, and I’ve been open about it, I don’t get how I am (or was) a townread for you.

Also, outside of alignment issues, this is a bit prescriptivist. There a 100 different ways to play. Some people think meta is garbage; some swear by it. Some look for contradictions; others don’t believe in scumslips and so trust their internal genuineness thermometer. To each their own, and neither is flimsy or scummy.

[teacher]

Not hammer. l-1 I believe.

[teacher]

Sure

[teacher]

I’d be ok with that

[teacher]

I mean the theory is quite tinfoil, as you would be outed by a bass claim.

[teacher]

Mass. Autocorrect.

[teacher]

Pleasure either way Sky.

[teacher]

FfS. Why are we claiming at MYLO?????

Duck is almost certainly mechanically town. Which means we have a doctor. How do we not let them have the opportunity to create a clear, or at least guarantee better odds on the first shot and then trust analysis and associatives to reveal the second.

VOTE: no lynch

[teacher]

Before outing analysis that scum can use later can we try to get consensus on no lynch/lynch? And I’m hard pushing the former.

The doc probably healed Duck. Scum parked their roleblock somewhere ineffective (Duck?)

[teacher]

Agree there.

[teacher]

Yay I’m townclear.

[teacher]

Also, what would a no lynch accomplish Teacher? Wouldn't the scum just try to kill people who are not likely to be suspected like you and UglyDuck? That would just leave us with the same pool of suspects.

Yes. I assumed that there was not another townclear. Your info changes it.

As a general matter, no lynch is best at mylo simply to increase the odds of hitting scum, especially when there is an unknown protective or investigative who could create a new clear. But since we have already mass claimed it is time to PoE it.

[teacher]

Actually I’m not townclear because of C2 and the wifom possibility of no night kill. And Lando isn’t clear either. Just adds a wrinkle.

UD who did you null-check?

Any other PRs want to claim?

[teacher]

Lando - any crumbs at all?

[teacher]

Eragon,

While I remain town and am fairly convinced after a quick ISO that that is the team, I want to make sure we don’t clear Lando. Scum could very easily have decided to no nk N1 if they were townread enough in order to be able to claim doctor and guarantee a win at mylo/lylo. And Lando was universally townread.

[teacher]

VOTE: unvote
Crazy busy day prepping for new job. Will respond to your question tonight. A lot of it is VCA.

[teacher]

But yea I’m going to need “more words” papito.

[teacher]

Who did you nullvheck?

[teacher]

Duck I think you’re drunk again. Pull the vote and talk.

And I know I’m encouraging talk while not doing it. Tbh I’m waiting for papa.

feels like it’s been about 30 for him but not sure

[teacher]

NKA of N1 (no death) and N2(Reck) says Lando is true, and scum last night were PR hunting/avoiding townreads for fear of a docsave.

Everybody has posted and nobody has countered.

I will post a longer analysis but I’m now convinced on Papa. I still lean HWS but that can wait til I’m off mobile.

[teacher]

You’ll not convince scum that he is scum.

Tbh even after your claim I was truly worried about you because of the play style thibgs making me think you were trying to be scum mayor, and your hesitancy to lynch HWS. But the Reck kill basically ended that when I thought about what it meant about scum mentality.

[teacher]

VOTE: Papa

[teacher]

Well we can pretty much confirm that there is at least one scum in Zito Lando and me since otherwise scum could quickhammer the win.

[teacher]

@Duck -- Youre the only person worth talking to, since you are town and the only townread to express hesitancy to lynch Papa. So Im going to be talking to you a bit over the next couple posts.

Doc would never claim here as town

You are entirely ignoring the board state. One person (Eragon) had said doc should claim if he saved non-dead-duck N1. A second person (me) – who is apparently conf!town, at least to Lando – then agreed. Only third did Lando claim.

Moreover, you are entirely ignoring the mechanics behind our advice. Everybody agrees that Skygazer was not the N1 kill target. So either (a) scum no killed (how likely is that in general?) or (b) a doctor saved. If the doctor saved outside of the dead, creating a third clear makes the game PoE 67% win. All we have to do is pick scum today, and then have you act as a cop

(though we might need some clarification from Brass on how Natural Action Resolution will play out if we get the wrong scum)

Finally let me address (a) more. At this point, that would require a scum team of Lando and me. Why would scum!me raise no-NK as option after the N1 no-flip? Have you ever seen a game where the two most talkative players were both scum? Where after my partner claimed I would still be casting pretty severe shade at him? Seriously, ask yourself what the likelihood of that team is, or what the likelihood of Lando and me NK Reck N2 after both throwing some shade at him yesterday (kill our own mislynch target??) is and then apply Occam's razor.

[teacher]

What about me flipping town makes teacher a weaker townread or vice versa?

Ducky, I know your suspicious of me. But you never answered this question. How was lynching Skygazer not the right play, purely mathematically?

[teacher]

actually wait - if skum is Goon!Goon they could claim doc for cred.

I definitely thought this. Indeed, after the claim I thought it was CT-HWS. But really really think about the Reck kill. It makes no sense unless there is a doctor.

[teacher]

Yay I’m townclear.

You absolutely are not. Sky could of been the target... however unlikely that may be.

I agree that is possible. It is also possible Lando is full of shit. But as for just my alignment, (a) apply Occam's razor to what you recognize is unlikely, and (b) look at the timing and progression of my posts following Lando's claim, and ask whether they feel genuine.

[teacher]

this is all just a bunch of WIFOM.

.....

any number of probabilities are possible, but we need to figure out the ones that make sense and are the most likely.

Thats why its not WIFOM. Because there are likelihoods, and thats what you have to compare.

[teacher]

agree. I could well be wrong. After all I soulread Zito as town and have been pinged by Lando all game. But a N1 no kill and N2 Reck kill make the presence of a doctor far more likely than the absence of one.

[teacher]

@Ducky - why havent you said who you Jailkept yet?

[teacher]

UD are you fakeclaiming? because tbh i think you slipped non-JK in a post after your claim. i may have over-read it, but i want to hear what you say first.

I am just fine if you say you were gambitting

Lando, say whatever else you want, but this attention to detail (the slip Eragon later calls out) is town AF.

[teacher]

You're making assumptions about scum team power that you shouldn't be.

Where, and what assumption?

Why is scum roleblocker not a possibility?

It is a possibility -- 33% in our current world. But Im not seeing how that affects any of the discussion? (Sorry, Im a bit sleep deprived so if it seems like it should be obvious, Im just totally missing it right now).

Roleblocker trumps JK. If the roleblocker exists, the JK is getting permablocked. You don't seem to be accounting for this possibility in your posting.

@call papa - this seems to be false according to the wiki, which says this is a conflict unresolved by natural action resolution. Can you clarify?

[teacher]

2

Roleblocker

@call papa - this seems to be false according to the wiki, which says this is a conflict unresolved by natural action resolution. Can you clarify?

sorry.

[teacher]

I think Papa just scumclaimed with the contradiction in the last post.

First

, we have him saying Duck is alive because Duck hasn’t suspected scum, not because of a doctor.

if the JK isn't a threat to your team, there's no imperative to kill him.

• The problem with this is that Duck hasn't really posted reads (look at his ISO)
  .

Second

, we have Papa implying that Im Lando’s partner.

I'm not sure what Teacher has to do with anything unless you just slipped your buddy.

• The problem with this that Duck was most suspicious of me
  .

Spoiler: duck's suspicions

Chardev still my favorite choice. Teacher could be considered as well.

If Sky flips Town, Teacher is probably my favorite choice.

Finally

, but most importantly, we have the external contradiction:

There is a perfectly viable scenario (doc protect) in which you're both town.

this situation with a dubious claim.

Which is it, “perfectly viable” or “dubious”?

I thought the former, which is why I believe the claim. While I agree its

possible

scum intentionally no-killed N1 and killed a common suspect N2 just to be able to fakeclaim at MYLO, I find it far more

likely

there is a doctor. Indeed, scum that made such perfect night decisions would also likely wait until LYLO to avoid the exact shade you are throwing.

[teacher]

@Papa - what's your NKA for both nights if you believe there is not a doctor? Is it really just to lay the groundwork for a fake claim? Keep in mind, in your world, Ugly Duck can jailkeep uninhibited.

@duck - when he answers, compare the likelihood of his answers to mine:

• N1 scum RB'ed duck in expectation of him being docsaved, and attacked me as widely townread.
  
• N2 scum RB'ed duck (same logic), and attacked Reck suspecting him of being doctor (and in any event unlikely to be saved).

[teacher]

VOTE: unvote[/unvote]

I think there are strategic aspects of night play that make it worth waiting til Duck picks up his prod.

[teacher]

VOTE: unvote

[teacher]

Thanks for the long post. I’m going to do likewise tonight to respond to Lando and also make my case. But I think we have a functional lynch on Zito, but I also don’t want to vote til those posts are out and others can respond.

[teacher]

Ah didn’t see multiple pages. Will still respond late tonight.

[teacher]

I agree with Lando. Im not voting because I do want to make my case, but also review both ISOs. I fell asleep last night, but will get it done today.

@HWS, Im going to need your best case on Eragon. Lurking at this critical point isnt all that helpful (or it is!)

[teacher]

@763 - Right but since it’s only the two of you, that is not evidence you are not scum. Landos point is that the length of time we both were on Zito undercuts a Eragon-HWS team.

[teacher]

It will be posted tonight; just sat a comp now. (switching from law to high school teaching full time starting this week, so my life has been a bit of a S-show.)

[teacher]

First, a stand alone post regarding night play. Lando, if Papa flips RB you must heal duck and only duck. He will serve as a cop. I’m not going to discuss what to do if Papa flips goon, but I figure that play is obvious.

[teacher]

So on reflection, I am really divided between Eragon and HWS, though I still lean HWS. Im going to lay out my issues with both slots chronologically and in a fair amount of detail because Id like others to react, and to provide their own thoughts (Im doing this based on ISO and VC; a lot of you have expressed thoughts on either slot along the way that Im not seeing as I do this.) Since this is really long, I will bold the points I find very telling, and leave the last three outside spoilers.

Before going into the list, one constant assumption is that Papa is the teammate – both because of the available quickhammer earlier today, and because if he is not we have already lost. So associatives with him are figuring into my calculations in a way they were not before.

Spoiler: Posts 1-100

This tips slightly against Eragon:

• 7: Eragon RVS against Papa. For distance? (would explain the weirdness on math)
  
• 16: Eragon somewhat weirdly interjects to answer a question not posed to him
  about Papa’s slot
  .
  
• 19: Papa requests an avi. Eragon didn’t have one. Distance?
  
• 23: HWS misuses misrep to throw shade at Eragon; doesn’t really answer how to scumhunt.
  
• 32:
  Papa provides second vote on Duck; HWS is first. Very unlikely for a scum pair, but Papa’s experienced enough that this is worth less than it normally would.
  
  
• 37: HWS interjects to semi-defend Zito in a bizarre way. Offers avi as buddying?
  
• 44: Eragon gets town points for encouraging focus on actual play
  
• 77: HWS’s vote of Chardev here feels forced, even though he has seen the scum play before. Makes me weigh 32 even less, but otherwise null.
  
• 78: This was Papa’s towniest post, and it is shading HWS for good reasons. Which weighs against a pship.
  
• 85: Eragon’s unvote here is really weird and contradictory. But the light town is not what I would expect from scum (nullish tends to be common).

Spoiler: Posts 101-200

Again, slightly worse for Eragon.

• 111:
  I like that HWS actually posted a readslist, and it seems pretty genuine. That said, the hard defense of Chronic is something that generally comes from scum (looking for town-accurate cred); town tends to be weaker in defense.
  
  
• 120: Eragon’s “continuing my questioning” seems pretty off/LAMISTY
  
• 146: Full Fluff from Eragon.
  
• 155: Papa encourages Lando to case Eragon.
  
• 171: Papa refutes Lando’s case on Eragon.
  
• 174: HWS has basically lurked out at this point, and offers nothing game advancing other than to shed Lefty which might be an incipient wagon.
  
• 179, 181, 183, 190:
  Feels like Papa is playing on his experience with Reck to push against an Eragon wagon, only to encourage the vote for distance once Reck sticks with it. Then, immediately after the vote, Papa redirects attention to the low hanging fruit.

Spoiler: Posts 201-300

This is neutral

• 216: Eragon’s intent. TBH, this (and the prevalence of one-on, one-off) was a large part of my preference for HWS. But Eragon was the alternative wagon, so I could understand two on even if it is sig less likely. The color coding etc. feels forced, and a lot like the former player’s meta scum game.
  
• 230: Papa going to the Chronic low-hanging fruit after the duck wagon falls apart. Protecting Eragon?

Spoiler: posts 301-400

This weighs slightly against HWS.

• 303: Papa semi-defends Eragon upon CeeJay’s entrance by echoing my questions.
  
• 308: Actually feels like a relatively genuine post/response to a case from Eragon.
  
• 310: Another towny post from Papa, now against Eragon. Basically the counterweight to 78.
  
• 327: Papa’s pressure of CJ here is part of what eventually leads to his mislynch. And it saves Eragon the alt wagon again.
  
• 359: HWS entrance is good – new perspective on Reck – but mostly repeating what has already been said. Certainly less detail than Eragon’s later one.
  
• 364:
  This is HWS’s post that tweaked me the most. On Zito, it seems like a lotta effort to arrive at a nullread. It talks about several towny aspects and only one scum point. Scum want to be null on their partner but avoid their partners lynch.
  
  
• 386:
  In the series of posts on Friday ending here, HWS provides reasons for townreading every single player other than CJ and Papa. But he never comments on Papa. Buddying board while not pointing at partner?
  
  
• 398: I actually found HWS presence on the second lynch (and Eragon’s absence) to point to HWS, because there has been open discussion of probabilities.

Spoiler: posts 401-500

Bad for HWS.

• 411:
  HWS again makes another post pointed at Zito, but again not mentioning a name.
  
  
• 418: Some more Zito shade that feels unnecessary. Distancing or prize for best hunter? Im leaning the former from how this early energy has been replaced by lurking.
  
• 419: HWS is the first Sky cheerleader, after towning them the day before. Not unreasonable, but also not a positive. The discussion of 351 in particular feels off.[/b]
  
• 474: Papa calls for more participation from one player – to cover for the absence of eragon?
  
• 490:
  Is HWS too in front of a mislynch for scum?
  
  
• the fact that Chardev lurked out all of D2 I view as mostly NAI, but want to acknowledge it.

Spoiler: 501-600

This weighs slightly against HWS.

• 547: I like Eragon’s entrance, esp. the point about defending scummy town (See 111).
  
• 549: Eragon’s question to duck seems TAF closereading upon entry.
  
• 553:
  Eragon’sMech question feels very forced for someone who has played 10-15 games of mafia, including 2-3 here.
  
  
• 556:
  Eragon scumreading two known town (including a then-present claimant) and hardtowning me (scums target) feels a bit like seeding the ground for a multi-scum mylo D3.
  
  
• 571: HWS shade at Eragon (IIOA) is wrong. Eragon brought a totally new perspective, just pointed the wrong way.
  
• 588:
  HWS scumread of Reck seems off, compared to the late 300s, and I don’t see what Reck could have done to change it.

Spoiler: post 601-current

This is neutral.

• 607: Really not sure what to make of Eragon’s tinfoil Duck-Sky theory. Its clearly wrong, and should have been at the time. But….what does that mean?
  
• 619: In the post explaining the tinfoil on DUCK, Eragon says ZITO is scum (348). TMI slip?
  
• 627:
  Eragon’s alternative reads lists is fairly towny. Papa’s placement in each; and the Reck-HWS together in town scenario – seems like mislynch prep, given VCA from D1.
  
  
• 635 and 637: Feels like Eragon testing the waters to find the doctor – towning those safe to town (or the partner), and shading those safe to shade, even before the claim.[
  
• 639: Eragonepeats my early points on towning Papa, but ignores that they have since blended and lurked.
  
• 650: Countervails 635; I don’t think scum!Eragon would get this far into a 1v1 and use huge letters. But that’s just a gut thing.
  
• 656: Eragon;s question about “we” having another day is WIFOM – scum would care, but wouldn’t say. Or would they? I view it as scummy, but ymmv.
  
• 660: Massclaim at mylo=PR hunting or solving. Ymmv.

674: I don’t see why scum!Eragon makes this post which increases town’s shot. At the same time, it does assume a non-duck save……

704:

HWS’s refusal to actually engage/provide a case on Eragon is worse than Chardev’s earlier lurking, because the game state is more critical. Sure, there is WIFOM, but if youre town, better to go down swinging.

760: HWS’s italicized “for now” seems like seeding a push since the game is over if Lando is lying.

[teacher]

FYI I plan to vote papa with one day left on deadline.

[teacher]

what is the plan with the Zito prod drop?

Eragon acknowledging your questions. Ymmv is your mileage may vary - a way of saying here’s what I think but I recognize it’s an assumption. I will respond to everything else when I can.

HWS and Duck - since I think you two have the most interest in Eragon, I’d love to hear why I’m over reading some HWS stuff and what I’m missing on Eragon

[teacher]

[/b] I really have to get better at refreshing. Sorry, and thank you, Brass

[teacher]

Is there an effect on the deadline?

[teacher]

No, I agree there. Basically I’m hoping it allows time for Lando and Duck to talk about tomorrow since there is a good chance one of them (or me) won’t be around assuming it doesn’t end today, and I am not yet comfortable want other views.

[teacher]

Responding to Eragon since nobody else wants to play.

i havent played a game with jailkeeper and/or Roleblocker on this site

If you can point me to a site where a JK/RB is known to the other side on the night it acts, that would be helpful to me. Because the thought that this would be a possibility anywhere is difficult for me to imagine.

why "clearly wrong"?

Because if Duck was bussing Sky, Duck would necessarily be outed by a massclaim at LYLO. It is a play that doesn’t make any sense, and so clearly wrong.

can you elaborate on this i dont see where i called ZITO scum?

In 619’s discussion of 348, pasted here: “this could be TMI right here.” Seemed way overread.

its town-y but you think its mis-lynch prep?

My way of acknowledging that there are two ways to look at the post. I lead with my thoughts, but acknowledge the counter. Same theory as ymmv/WIFOM. Comments like this are opinions not evidence.

i dont see how either of these (635 and 637) are trying to find the doctor, or shading?

If you assume scum!you, TRing me (target), duck (claimant), and Papa (partner) is safe, and pushing Lando on statistics could be seeing if the response is a PR slip. This is a bit confirmation biased since I was looking for reasons to suspect you, but it does seem like shade at any possible lynch rather than targeted scumhunting.

i didnt even know you had points for Town!Zito or anything else?

But you commented on the post. See here:

252 I low-key stopped writing teacher’s posts down because I’m not sure if he can obv.town

MY issue is that I agree with the list, but it ignores the subsequent 400 pages of thread absence.

At the same time, it does assume a non-duck save……and then i realized that after you posted and i re-worded it.

Yea, but the WIFOM question is whether you made an erroneous assumption (town) or slipped actually having more information (scum). I view it as town but as always want to acknowledge where I am making pure assumptions.

[teacher]

Intent as well and I can do it before deadline but I if this doesn’t flip RB I am most worried about Lando so want him to be able to talk.

[teacher]

If we do not lose here and i die i want it to be noted that i think it is eragon.
Also teacher if you have anything else to divulge you should do it now.

Can you at least say why Eragon? Extra credit for why not HWS.

[teacher]

Well done ausuka. Thanks for replacing in.

[teacher]

It doesn’t matter. He was roleblocked. Why Lando died (as predicted).

No lynch also doesn’t matter. Scum is between Eragon and HWS so it’s 50/50 today or tomorrow.

Duck if you want to answer the why/why not questions that’d be great. HWS likewise.

[teacher]

I also have some thoughts, but I’m going to let them sit until after Duck. Have fun with the Mrs.

[teacher]

Also, Im going to metadive. Eragon/HWS - links to your 2 most recent scum and town games (15 players or less) on any site, please?

[teacher]

Quack quack?

I’m going to be LA weekend. I’d ask that we not get two votes on any slot.

[teacher]

The thing with Char is that while the arguments don't check out I don't really know if it's anti town.. could be just faulty argumenting. But I wouldn't really see a convincing lynch atm. Let's make day 2 longer y'all.

Just wanted to put this in my ISO. Also reminding myself to reread Newb 1843.

[teacher]

kindly prod Duck?

[teacher]

Yup. But someone will hopefully give some new perspective in Ducks place since I’m a bit inclined to defer to that slot.

may I pm Duck in case that obviates the need for replacement?

[teacher]

Prodge. Welcome Krazy. Thanks and I will respond in the day tomorrow.

[teacher]

I promise content tonight by 11 eastern. I’m sorry for the delay.

[teacher]

First, Krazy, I repeat my thanks for subbing in. Reading 30 pages just to provide informed reads at MYLO is incredibly generous.

Second, possibly weakening your incentive to take this post seriously, I am going to out-and-out sheep you. I am very, VERY conflicted. I am posting, rather than simply voting, to give you the benefit of a “counter-argument”. Im not necessarily committed to it. If it changes your mind, great. If it doesn’t, great.

At bottom – Im happy to discuss anything in here further if it would help you, but if you think you’ve gotten all you can get out of the game, just tell me and I’ll throw up the vote.

***********************************
Here are my major issues with a Zito-HWS team. The first Ive said before, but most of the rest are new. They are presented chronologically, rather than by weight. In terms of weight, Reck’s death (point 5) plays a fairly big role.

Spoiler: countercase

First, the early day one votes. In 7, Eragon RVS’s papa, something I have seen scum do for distance semi-frequently. In contrast, in 32, Papa gets right next to HWS on an early wagon, which is a fairly uncommon position for scum. As I said, I give this less weight given the relative experience of players, but it weighs slightly against scum!HWS.

Second, and more interesting to me, are the alternative D1 lynches. I see no reason for scum!HWS to push against the Chardev wagon upon his entry in 364 382 and 383, especially given that scum!Zito had already semi-defended Chardev. Effectively this took an mislynch off the table. In contrast, the only reason I see for Papa pushing chronic as much as he did in 179-327 (see my discussion in 771) is to distract from Chardev/Eragon – I don’t see Papa as hard-defending in these posts, more slight defending and distracting with other low-hanging fruit.

Third, why does scum!HWS get so out in front of the inevitable D2 mislynch by antagonizing Sky? (e.g., 419, 490, 514).

Fourth, I see some weirdness from Eragon. I talked about the mech question, the tinfoil theory, and the doctor claim. But 573 could also be PR hunting/slip that there is a doctor in the game. Likewise, 598 could be a fake townslip of not being aware of hammer. And 635 -> 641 “what push”? could be seen as defensive. (All this doesn’t mention the preclaim shade at Lando).

Fifth, and most importantly, is Reck’s death and Eragon’s reactions: On Reck’s death, I don’t see the person who wrote 588 night-killing Reck. In contrast, I def see that from 627. Also, I do view my 428 as potentially playing a role in the selection of the night-kill, as it implied I would lynch HWS with death of a town!reck (which would have lead to a scum!Eragon win). Eragon’s reactions are even more telling. The 660 massclaim suggestion, and the 662 HWS push favor scum – they would out the doctor and get the mislynch accomplished.

Finally, more Eragon weirdness: 753 suggesting JK would clear; 795 looking to no-lynch when it doesn’t change the gamestate but does make so that one misvote is all that is needed for the quickhammer.

*********************************************

It could be that you both have flipped metas, that you only try when you're scum and Eragon tries really hard when he's scum

Step 2: We ignore the useless meta because it helps for neither of the remaining candidates. Neither is playing to a discernible meta.

For what its worth, I agree with the latter quote having read their games. Eragon’s effort level is NAI. And I think HWS’s apathy if more real life than game-based. Whichever one of them is scum has played well.

************************************
Pleasure playing with all of you and sorry for slowing this up.

[teacher]

Works for me. And to make clear to the others, I don’t blame you at all; HWS was my gut too but it got a lot closer to me when trying to respond to Lando/Duck. So I deserve an entirely equal amount of eggshells if this is town.

VOTE: HWS

Gg all.

[teacher]

I for one appreciate the spoiler but for future would recommend either spoiler coding it or waiting for the mod as it does frustrate some other players FYI.

And thank you as well for the replacement (as with several slots).

[teacher]

What is it with the Nick Cage Brass

[teacher]

MY weak attempt at a joke since you have Nick Cage and Krazy threw his meme up too.

[teacher]

Thanks all. And yea I do try to play the same meta as scum. Who knows how successful it is - only rolled once here so far.