Open 785: Secrets of the Anuket Topaz [Game over!]

[Menalque]

I actually don’t know which game you’re talking about

Was this a while ago or fairly recently?

[Menalque]

Were you a vig role?

[Menalque]

Oh right, I got you, but I don’t think it was the tiger I think it was the other player who often gets referred to as the “animal”

And like, eh? I think I played that whole game really differently to how I played it here, and I think that the more natural assumption should be “because in this one mena is town who was wrong” vs “in this one mena is still scum who learned from his mistakes”

Also that game was just a big sigh, I wasn’t very motivated for it and honestly I’m kinda amazed that my “pulled out of my ass” scumplay is being compared to my fairly try hardy townplay... although that may not say great things about my townplay, come to think of it

[Menalque]

it gives him minimum towncred while being very bad for scum

Well apart from the “both scum are probably on snow so let’s just lynch through that wagon” hypotheses being rolled out

[Menalque]

idk i haven't read the last 5 to 10 pages so i'll leave the final decision to Eva
maybe the solve is like RCE + Montosh or something

The main thing that bothers me about RCE (in like a why he may not be scum sense) is A50’s TR on him. If A50 is scum, then it could either be a strong WK, or it could be buddy defence that he’s doubled down on. But if A50 is town then the level of confidence he’s expressed in this does make me think RCE is more likely to be town

@A50, can you point to any examples where you’ve professed a super confident read in someone’s alignment and been right?

[Menalque]

You never said it was Fred before he flipped...

[Menalque]

Menalque’s pretty charming

It’s okay Eva, I forgive you for being wrong on me, but you have to make it up to me by winning the game, deal?

[Menalque]

I think if you don’t townread me by now you probably never will and it may be better to get rid of me because you paranoia will only be stronger at gylo where it’s much more important I’m not guillotined

[Menalque]

*pets eevee gently

[Menalque]

A50, if it’s not you, and it’s not me, and you think RCE is cleared for you — do you think it’s montosh or do you think scum would both be off the snow wagon? I don’t think scum can both be off the snow wagon when it was getting resisted so hard, right? Like I don’t think I’m that persuasive that I convinced 5 townies to nearly vote town while scum were busy actively trying to bus their partner?

[Menalque]

It just doesn’t seem likely to me tho fredrick. Like I’m good, but normally I’m not that good. I’d say getting a lot of support is rare if I don’t have some scum backing for what I’m doing and I normally miss one scum even when I am on form (normally the one who’s been backing my plays/pocketing me)

[Menalque]

@A50 so you’re saying it’s ydrasse + montosh/S_S, interesting

[Menalque]

/s

[Menalque]

Run me through why I’m scum to you?

[Menalque]

Okay raya, explain to me again why ydrasse only makes sense with you and not with anyone else in the unconfirmeds?

[Menalque]

I am still supportive of guillotining on the snow wagon, but I recently lost a game because scum bussed in (what I thought was) a bus disincentivised situation so I’d like to run through it to make sure I’m understanding the reasons

[Menalque]

I would be so much more comfortable if it wasn’t primarily unconfirmeds on the mae wagon saying that

[Menalque]

VOTE: montosh

[Menalque]

In explanation:

I know I’m town. I do still err towards thinking that there was at least one scum backing my push.

RCE is probably town even though he reads super scummy, because of the way mohab talked about him and voted for him? Like she didn’t just say “I wouldn’t be surprised if he flipped scum” and then avoided it (covering for if he did get run up) she actually voted there — i.e. she was happy with a misguillo there?

A50 is probably slightly +town if RCE is town fr defending him although still a big idk there.

Leaves montosh who I also just don’t really townread at all

[Menalque]

I see, the mechanics make much more sense now. VOTE: HoldenGolden.

I don't know what the fuck HoldenGolden is saying, so I'll be ignoring that slot

upon more indepth looking, it's actually kinda comprehensible. taking my last statement back

meaningless wagon as all wagons are early on. UNVOTE:

Also, this is a somewhat over explained progression for her approach on holden right?

Would mohab feel the need to explain this much unvoting a townie?

[Menalque]

I’m not really interested in fighting titus if she really wants to do this based on VCA though, that’s just not my style

[Menalque]

Also forgot to point out: scum can't bus today, which is why I asked the unconfirmed to make pushes. Not sure how well my plan worked, but I think everyone has been hardpushing A50 which maybe clears him(?)

~Eva

I haven’t been, but he’s been mostly advocating for me so I guess it’s the same difference. Also, I think that while this is mostly solid, it’s worth bearing in mind that the white flag gambit does exist, and I imagine that A50 is in the group of people ballsy enough to play it

[Menalque]

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... lag_Gambit

@eva

[Menalque]

*sigh*

VOTE: menalque

[Menalque]

I'm too lazy to go back and reread everything I skimmed the first time, someone tell me why Menalque is scum and why A50 isn't.

Because I am the one who was ultimately responsible for driving the snow wagon, and while I think I’ve done more or less everything in my power to show I’m town since then, people can’t get over it. Which, honestly? Fair enough, I know it’s really hard making calls like that and the idea of losing to me if I were scum is, I can only assume, eating away at the back of the mind of every townie.

I think the problem is that so long as I’m in the game, people like Eva are going to be worried I’m pulling one over on them, and seeing as I’m not confident on who we should flip today, I think the best thing is honestly to flip me to confirm me, because if we were to guillo two others and be wrong first, the level of paranoia I think the remaining town would have on me in gylo would be so high that I kind of doubt they’d be able to see I’m town there (if they can’t already see it confidently by now)

[Menalque]

I think S_S and montosh are the two scummiest slots, probably.

I don’t know what I think of titus’ VCA, but it’s probably worth taking into consideration at the least, which means think about A50/ydrasse. I don’t really scumread either on play but that’s a low confidence read.

RCE is also scummy and I think individually comes up right after S_S and montosh. I really hated his AtE today but it may well be genuine.

Sorry not to be more help

[Menalque]

I really don’t think it’s healthy for the gamestate for me to survive today. I’m glad you have me as town, I’m glad titus is clearing me vía VCA, but everyone else is *begrudgingly* town on me at best, and I have faith in this town to successfully re-evaluate after my flip and to find one of the two remaining scum in the 5 remaining names.

[Menalque]

Okay, and if I felt confident on us hitting scum today then sure, I getchu. But I don’t really because I don’t think anyone is like *really, really scummy*. So if we don’t do me today, and we miss (40%EV of a win if we do shoot correct today) then we go to tomorrow where if I’m still not the guillo we have a 50%EV. But if we do miss other of those shots, then despite having a 66% EV of hitting on D4, I think the bias on my slot and discomfort means I’ll be disproportionately more voteable than the actual scum are, meaning the odds are much lower. Also, I guess that should actually be 50% EV D4 from anyone who isn’t me, which makes it /even worse/ given that I think people will be biased towards voting me.

If I die today, then yes, we don’t get the 40% EV shot at an autowin, that’s true. But it does remove the most “obvscum” slot that I think is throwing people like eevee off. So I think that actually improves EV, as we’d still be in with 50% EV D4 but there wouldn’t be the bait slot that is me to skew perceptions

[Menalque]

So, I uh, realised that my math was wrong because of the scum escape if there’s no scum guillo for two consecutive days.

So in worlds where I’m guillotined today: EV tomorrow is at 40% but then it declines to 33% the day after.

If I’m not guillotined today or tomorrow, then EV today is 40%, tomorrow is 50%, and in gylo it would be 33% anyway. Admittedly there the paranoia creeps in and means it’s lower than that, but I think on balance the extra chance is worth it, in addition to the 50% EV tomorrow if I’m not guillotined then either.

I would like to talk more with eevee.

Can people explain the TRs on montosh? I don’t see it.

[Menalque]

Also, UNVOTE: in light of what i just said

[Menalque]

I sort of think it may be S_S/raya

[Menalque]

Snowblaze, you’re online, do you think that’s crazy?

[Menalque]

Ehh actually maybe it’s just ydrasse

[Menalque]

VOTE: ydrasse

[Menalque]

Yes, I think ydrasse is the best bet for today

[Menalque]

*sigh*

VOTE: menalque

Ewww.

This vote the and the whole stream of posts following is so bad. Why are we not lynching here? Menalque says well hey yes sure I am probably the slot that needs to be evaluated today so definitely vote me. And guess what, people move off that wagon because "scum would never do that"

.

But scum will do it if they think it makes them look townie enough to give them a chance to escape. They remove some pressure and then stop self-voting.

Not to mention that self-votes are +scum like always

.

(1) I took my vote back off after (a) realising that my math was wrong (I think my later math was also wrong though lol) and (b) after there was a relative amount of cohesion from the towncore about me not being scum that made me less worried about being the paranoia mislynch in gylo if the game gets there. Your approach here seems super bad faith. Like, yes, I would contemplate pulling this move as scum. But you're just going "ewww gross votes" because it's something I

might

do as scum instead of looking at whether there is motivation for town!me to be doing it. (Which yes, there is, because I am town, and I did it. Also should be fairly obvious without that knowledge that there is a town motivation to thinking that if slots are tunnelled on you who have a lot of influence -- eevee -- then it may be better to resolve your own slot to allow them to recalibrate.

(2) This is just shade, have you got anything to back this up? I've self-voted as town before and have been in multiple games where town has self-voted out of frustration/a desire to have their reads taken seriously once they're confirmed.

[Menalque]

What are you reads anyway montosh?

[Menalque]

It's probably just Ydrasse and Montosh guys.

Not S_S or raya?

[Menalque]

I thought about it more and now think that either both scum bussed or that raya is right in (1 on, 1 off).

My reasoning for this is that if you’re scum and there’s a strongly competing wagon on your scumbuddy, what is gained from trying to save them and push the CW? Yes, you stave off the guillo for one day, but there’s no NK and your buddy probably gets guillo’d the next day. If that does happen then you’re confirming 5 anyway (I suppose you can’t lose by default at least though, which is something) and it’s going to be /very/ clear that you were supporting the CW even if you leave as many people unconfirmed there as possible. I don’t think this is a smart plan for scum if they’re trying to win the game, it’s all about the short term gains.

If, however, you’re a canny scum, then you know that if there are competing wagons and one flips scum, the default response will be “the scum must have Ben trying to save their buddy” — this was my initial thought as it was of several others. But mohab/mae was a weak slot, and I think that’s important to factor in. When I’m scum, I often choose whether I’m bussing or not based on the strength and communicativeness of my partner(s). If I have faith in their abilities or they’re talking a lot with me in scum pt, I try for a perfect game or to at least minimise bussing. If I perceive them as weak or if they’re not talking to me, I’m more likely to go for the bus to set me up as the deepwolf carry for the team.

Based on what mohab/mae die while they were here, I doubt they fit the mould of “scumplayer who we really need to save to win” for the scumteam, which means they would have been a very strong bus candidate, with the idea that town will default to guillotining on the CW and that will be enough (given the fact that game ends at D4) to get the scumteam to a win. So I think actually double bus is plausible, or if not double then single is very likely.

I’m not totally sure who it would be — S_S looks scummy to me but I struggle to read him. All of them have trajectories onto mae which could be bussing. But I think I may have figured out a tell for ydrasse (if she is scum I think it’s accurate) and Titus says VCA implicates her as one of her top suspects. Therefore, I’d like to do ydrasse today

[Menalque]

S_S, you’re online and you were saying earlier that you think it’s insane for scum to bus — why do you think the above logic is wrong?

[Menalque]

gylo

This makes me uncomfortable

Also, why did this make you uncomfortable?

[Menalque]

S_S, you’re online and you were saying earlier that you think it’s insane for scum to bus — why do you think the above logic is wrong?

it's not out of the question that scum thought Maemuki could turn the slot around - she didn't have to be the plank walker the next day if we threw snow overboard

~Eve

Maybe, but I doubt it. Generally when wagons are competing that hard it’s SvT. It would still probably have been correct even if wrong because it would have confirmed that scum were very comfortable and probably split across both wagons, had it been TvT

I’m thinking about what S_S said above

[Menalque]

That’s sort of valid but given that one would still leave at night the remaining one would still have to be careful to not be too closely associated with them once they exit the game

So I’m not sold on that really

[Menalque]

this why i think it's just Menalque:

• hard pushed snow day 1
  
• defended Mohab as oblivious town
  
• started a Titus counterwagon against Mohab
  
• is pushing the narrative that there were 1 or 2 bussers on Maemuki

VOTE: Menalque

~Eve

Okay, but listen to me and titus tomorrow once I’ve flipped town and kill ydrasse

[Menalque]

i think Menalque arguing that both scum may even be bussing is very scum-indicative for him and feels like an agenda he needs to push as scum for a chance to win this game

~Eve

If I was scum I could have quite happily kept arguing that there was scum on my wagon, got montosh done and then probably still lived > RCE/A50 and escaped at night

Unless you think I’m partnered with montosh/RCE/A50 which is honestly kinda ???

[Menalque]

I personally don’t think this play makes any sense from scum!me as all I had to keep doing was pushing the idea that all the scum was on snow and then keep it off me (and frankly I wasn’t looking likely)

And instead your logic is that scum!me decides to throw that all away to push what I know is a likely unpopular mae!wagon target?

Like I literally don’t see how this makes sense from scum!me fypov unless I am exactly scum with montosh which also doesn’t make sense unless you think we entered white flag gambiting all day

[Menalque]

this why i think it's just Menalque:

• hard pushed snow day 1
  
• defended Mohab as oblivious town
  
• started a Titus counterwagon against Mohab
  
• is pushing the narrative that there were 1 or 2 bussers on Maemuki

VOTE: Menalque

~Eve

Okay, but listen to me and titus tomorrow once I’ve flipped town and kill ydrasse

why though other than My Votes And Your Game Theory

That’s not enough? That feels like enough

Titus thinks you’re likely scum by VCA

My most likely expectation of what scum would do means you’re in my candidates for more likely scum

You may have a tell (not sure, depends on your flip here) and if you do it means you’re scum

[Menalque]

If you do flip me today then do ydrasse tomorrow and if that is wrong I’d probably lightly lean (S_S, montosh) but honestly i could totally see it being any of (raya, A50, RCE) there too

[Menalque]

Can we hurry up either way if I’m gonna die then I’d like to just get it over with so the game can proceed

I’m mildly irritated that you’ve been so flip-floppy on my slot only to finally come down on this side of things but c’est la vie

[Menalque]

i think Menalque arguing that both scum may even be bussing is very scum-indicative for him and feels like an agenda he needs to push as scum for a chance to win this game

~Eve

Amazing that this is scum!indicative for me when I said it actively knowing it was more likely to get me killed today and I think you should know that I’m intelligent enough to know that’s the case

[Menalque]

i'm actually curious of what you think the tell is now but i'll have to learn later

I mean if you flip scum I’m definitely not telling you

If you flip town then I’m seeing if it’s broadly reliable for you over a few more games or not, and if it keeps being inconsistent (instead of this being a false positive) then I’ll tell you

[Menalque]

but when people put their entire faith into it, it feels like there's not much that i can do to get them to look at everything else regarding the game.

That’s kind of the point, and it’s why I think your reaction is scum!indicative here

VCA is annoying as scum because if it’s not extrapolated on it just gives people a guilty on you and if they won’t explain you can’t argue with that, so you’re just screwed more or less. I think that town!yiu would be more focussed on trying to identify scum even with a bad VCA on you to help in the case of a mis-guillo on you base on it

Or would just be like “well okay but ur VCA is wrong doe titus” whereas you seem very concerned about that an with being scumread generally, despite i think having not been /that/ at risk of it today given that eevee is probably the biggest town leader atm and wants to stay on the snow wagon. I can’t be because of my defense of mae yesterday, and titus is absent so she’s not leading

[Menalque]

I feel like there's an argument to be made that this^ is against the rule about harming your performance in the current game to gain an advantage in future games... (there is such a rule, right?)

Though this is neither the time nor the place to discuss that. It just annoys me because it encourages a culture of secrecy and competitiveness, like, beyond the scope of the game itself.

I don’t think not outing a tell on another player to allow you to reliably discern their alignment in the future is like a trust tell at all really and I think the idea of “you should always out your tells” is flawed

At most I’m hurting myself very minutely here through not outing, but I doubt me outing it changed whether I get guillotined today or ydrasse does

[Menalque]

You might not if you kill titus and manage to keep pocketing eevee tbf

[Menalque]

I don’t think not outing a tell on another player to allow you to reliably discern their alignment in the future is like a trust tell at all really and I think the idea of “you should always out your tells” is flawed

At most I’m hurting myself very minutely here through not outing, but I doubt me outing it changed whether I get guillotined today or ydrasse does

Well yeah, you are only harming yourself if it actually benefits you to out it which would basically be if anyone wanted you to out it and thought they could evaluate either you or Ydrasse better as a result.

If it's a meta tell, I, having no meta with Ydrasse, have no interest in it, since I have no way to judge its validity. But I suppose others might.

Right only if I’m right then so long as people listen to me and titus’ VCA it doesn’t matter if I keep the advantage for the future by not telling her what it is, because she still gets flipped tomorrow and town wins

Or if it’s right and we do guillo ydrasse today, then I also don’t need to out it because that’s happened anyway

[Menalque]

i thought i was supposed to be pocketing you too. i only have so much room here to hold all of you

Let it be said, I really do like you regardless of your alignment:)

[Menalque]

Okay but for real to everyone else, can we shuffle this game along so I can know if I still gotta care tomorrow or if I can just idly browse from dead thread and be vaguely annoyed with eve

[Menalque]

Yo, S_S, raya, umlaut, snow
Pick a goddamn wagon let’s get this show on the road

[Menalque]

I mean I know that if I’m wrong then Eve is probably gonna deathtunnel me tomorrow so fmpov it’s win the game now or watch town probably lose in gylo

So pretty confident but I’d be lying if I said like 100% would blow your mind

I considered trying to swing eevee with a “listen final offer: vote ydrasse and if I’m wrong I’ll self vote tomorrow and spend the whole day prodging” but my heart wasn’t really in it because I’m not that sold she’s scum, she’s just my best bet. If she’s not I think it’s you or raya honestly

[Menalque]

I've

tried

and everyone hates every wagon I pick

Well the options are currently me or ydrasse unless you wanna start another hero scum wagon but I don’t fancy your chances as today eevee is tunnelling me and not teh scums

[Menalque]

*grumble grumble grumble*

Fine but no later than tomorrow

[Menalque]

Eve, if you decide you’re gonna keep pushing me today, I think you should be able to come up with convincing answers to the two following questions:

(1) if I’m scum, why am I comparatively half-hearted in my push on snow? Look at my comparative other pushes. Why do I push snow hard enough to make me look awful by associatives with mae, but not insist that we do snow and not mae? That’s something entirely within my scumrange and something I would believably do as town if sold enough on a read, so why did I let myself be in the worst possible position out of mae!flip.

(2) and this one is the more important one: if I’m scum who’s successfully turned my slot around to the point where my guillo is looking unlikely today with a couple of key supporters and a general sense that A50/montosh/RCE would be better guillotines than me for today — why do I then throw that all away by pushing the idea of 1-2 scum on the mae wagon instead of just doubling down on getting the town on the snow!wagon guillo’d before escaping?

[Menalque]

I also think the answer to (2) will help you to become a better player (not that I think I’m better than you) by forcing you to clarify an incorrect thought process that you will have had to have made a leap or an error in that you will hopefully be able to identify afterwards

[Menalque]

(1) i mean yelling at every slot that was undecided and telling them they’d better vote snow or I’d be coming for them tomorrow/targeting the weaker mae voters getting them to out their reasons for their votes and then arguing them into the dirt one by one, plus also probably building a fake megacase on why I was 100% on why snow was fucking scum who needed to die. None of which I did, all of which I’m capable of doing

(2) I just... don’t really think that’s true? There were a couple of people going that way. It’s still objectively safer and looks much optically better for me to keep pushing eliminating on snow!wagok if I’m scum so long as I’m pretty sure it’s not me, unless you think it’s like me/montosh or me/RCE both of which are honestly kind of lol as an idea. I don’t think it’s odd to think that’s a real possibility and I laid out exactly why I think scum have a strong incentive to bus here. 1-on, 1-off is maybe the most likely though, but I think both bussing is significantly more likely than both in snow at this point

[Menalque]

If he's scum he doesn't have a plan to win, unless his plan is to specifically pocket people who think like me by playing 4d chess.

I’d like to mention that this would also be playing against pretty much all my existing scum meta and almost every thought I’ve ever expressed in a scum pt todate

[Menalque]

how do you think you have a tell on Ydrasse when she has no scumgames?

~Eve

Dude she has a scumgame

[Menalque]

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=83349

[Menalque]

Idk but I think she’s plausible as scum with ydrasse so I’d rather just guillo ydrasse which this feels like a distraction from

[Menalque]

Why are you SRing me again, ydrasse?

[Menalque]

Okay but can you flesh that out for me

Why do you feel that I’m scum for instance or if I’m not that A50 is?

[Menalque]

Why are raya and montosh cleared, but moreso montosh?

[Menalque]

so that leaves you.

(1) who i feel is like... running through a list of things that just pile on the list of things that scum does blatantly in the hopes of it being townread because it is Too Blatant

. the

(2) hard push on snowblaze d1 (where, i know you said you weren't pushing the case super hard but i feel you were invested enough to ask for people's votes and also ask them to change it back which fmpov seems to imply you were pushing it fairly hard

), the

(3) self-vote in an effort to ~help town resolve you which is entirely counterproductive to actually helping town if you're town and you know that

. i dunno.

(4) your lategame to me just has this feeling wherein you're trying to get the votes shuffled off of you.

1441 + 1461+ 1471 being some examples of that.

idk. you're

(4) just weirdly dissonant in the sort of defeatist tones of "yeah if i'm wrong vote me out tomorrow, or you can just resolve my slot today (as you did earlier), i'm not even really sure in my reads" and still providing a lot of theory and determination in your views on where scum might've voted (1402)

.

(5) sidenote on 1402 i don't know where the

(1) okay but like why would i choose to play this way as scum when I would have varying choices? This isn’t really consistent with how I’ve more or less ever played scum on site, and my scumgame is almost entirely focused on solid play and doing the smart thing, not on trying to coast through on WIFOM. I have tried to leverage wifom when forced into a bad position, but you’re arguing I did this from the beginning which is like... not how I operate

(2) it really wasn’t that hard. I don’t understand how you or other people are suggesting that level of push was a hard push, when there’s meta examples of how strong my pushes tend to be when scum. Or when town, for that matter. I can find more than one game in a second where I more or less forced the guillotine onto the person I wanted after repping into the game despite their being townread beforehand. The level of force I’m capable of bringing in is why the push to do snow > mae was not a strong push.

(3) I don’t see your point and this doesn’t feel like a very good faith take? In the scenario where I am town, and at that point in the game there was a very legitimate reason to think that despite missing out on the auto-win opportunity, there would be a benefit from townslots who were tunnelling on me learning they were wrong and being able to refocus. I don’t understand how that’s “entirely counterproductive”?

(4) this is across 2 points because I think they’re both relevant to the same thing — yes, I am now trying to get voted shifted off me, and yes this is different to my defeatist (not entirely defeatist but more fatalistic, I still have reasonable hope that town will win if I’m misguillo’d) stance before, but that’s in consequence of my stronger reads and desire to flip you which wasn’t there. Like, while I was in the position of “oh idk where scum is at all, could be here, could be there, I’ve already been super wrong once idk if I want to try and lead again anywhere and I’m not sure what scum decided to do D1” it made sense to say “okay maybe I should be the sacrificial lamb if people aren’t TRing me and I’m going to be a liability if I’m brought to the late game.” Once I got stronger reads it no longer made sense to do that. And especially on giving that theory from 1402 — there’s a big incentive for me to provide that in the case where I am guillotined today, in order to help town tomorrow. How is that contradictory with me being fatalistic about likely dying today, especially knowing that that push was likely to lead to me looking worse — which again, why do I do that as scum when I could definitely have gotten A50 guillotined over me given how little he’s played and how he’s also on the snow wagon.

(5) I think this paragraph is unfinished

[Menalque]

Why are raya and montosh cleared, but moreso montosh?

Echoing the Raya question. I feel like people have just been writing Raya off as town for ?? reason.

Yeah, I realised I was doing this shortly before writing 1402 and it was part of what led to the re-evaluation laid out there

[Menalque]

I mean the Menalque wagon lacks a single conftown so yeah

Eevee's been pushing Menalque all day (need to see why he stopped actually?).

More accurately, eevee has been flip flopping on my slot all day

They’ve stopped because eve has handed the reins over to eva who is happier with ydrasse than with me

[Menalque]

Please see 1402 for why I think scum is more likely to have double bussed than to have double defended here, gimme a sec and I’ll find the argument against it on why scum is more likely to be on the snow wagon than the mae wagon

I sort of think 1 on 1 off is the most likely currently, but I think it makes more sense for scum to double bus there than to both limp on the CW

[Menalque]

throwing Ydrasse overboard would be a disaster - her recent posts are genuine and the tone would be hard to fake as scum

we have an easy route to victory here by targetting the snow wagon and misthrowing someone on the Maemuki wagon makes this unnecessarily difficult

remember - snow was kinda obvtown when she was high efforting towards the end while Mohab was compeltely absent - i refuse to believe snow would be so neck and neck with Maemuki/Mohab in terms of votes without a lot of drive from scum on it
there's no world where both scum were bussing based on that and i even think it's kind of unlikely 1 scum was so let's stick to the plan please

RCEnigma or Menalque today

~Eve

This is the main case for why scum were on the snow wagon or more likely to be there than on the mae wagon

[Menalque]

It’s not just you; titus and I have also both been actively advocating for ydrasse for a while now

[Menalque]

There is probably benefit to both raya and snow voting here

The people on vanities maybe would be good voting on one of the main wagons too, but i guess that’s less urgent given plurality and the fact that the VC should reflect where their top SRs actually were

[Menalque]

Idk how I feel here tbh

[Menalque]

I’m not townreading A50 on play

But I don’t see why my theory is wrong? On scum wanting to bus there

[Menalque]

That feels a lot like you’re townreading me, ydrasse

[Menalque]

Ngl while the “let the unconfirmed make pushes” was and is a reasonable posture to take, the lack of conftown throughout the majority of this day is annoying

For instance, the fact that I’m not sure a single conftown has voiced a take on whether scum were more likely to bus or to be supporting the snow wagon, let alone had a conversation with me about it

So I’m here like “oh, convenient that most of the mae wagon thinks scum would have done one on one off or supported snow, but the snow wagon as far as I can tell think that a bus is very plausible”

Actually now I think about it it makes more sense, as the town on either side would expect scum to have done the opposite thing to what they did? Maybe idk. We probably should have ended this day like 5 days ago

[Menalque]

Fredrick, what do you think?

[Menalque]

Why do you prefer the A50 wagon to the ydrasse wagon?

[Menalque]

VOTE: A50

[Menalque]

God I’m gonna kick myself so hard if I’m changing off scum into town here

[Menalque]

...okay i slept on it and I’m kind of back to thinking it’s montosh

[Menalque]

In regards to A50, mostly POE yeah but I mean I wasn't too big of a fan during my ISO of them, and then he sorta dropped off the face of the Earth which I don't really like.

Menalque I never felt the need to because I already scumread them.

I do the big ISO/progression thing to help sort through slots I'm not sure about. There was a wagon on A50 at the time and I wasn't sure how I felt about it.

So take this. Montosh has done a big read through for A50 and a smaller one for ydrasse (or like started on the ydrasse one). But he says he’s never done one on me because he’s really confident I’m scum.

That raises the question: what is his progression on me?

On D1 this is where he’s at:

629 That Mohab ISO that eevee posted doesn't look great for Mohab. There seems to be relatively confident analysis of the mechanics there.
640 This is pretty silly from Menalque. People can make up their own minds about who they think is vulnerable.
665 Good post, good case on snow. I initially liked 415 because I liked her going through the logic. I do think that, on reflection, there's less there than I initially thought, though I still kind of like the post. The hedging and lack of scumreads still worries me though.

He’s not keen on mohab or on snow, but he ultimately chooses to vote snow. He’s voiced at this point a dislike of my early play (“could be a scum play”) but I think his calling my case good here implies that he thinks I’m towny at this point. Because he chooses to vote in the same place, and supposedly my reasons are understandable.

Shift to D2:

Spoiler:

I feel like if this slot turns out to be town, then it's going to be a huge lynchbait target come lylo (if we get there). Given all the interactions around them if may be helpful to resolve that slot sooner rather than later.

And I just feel like there was enough resistance to the Mohab/Mae wagon to think that scum was at least partially involved in the snow/Titus counterwagons. This is especially notable given how many people scum-read that slow from basically RVS.

I'm not convinced both scum weren't bussing but I think it's not as likely as the alternative.

VOTE: Menalque

On the snow wagon, hopped on the Titus wagon at one point. Consistently defended mohab and started out intentionally playing so scummy that I could see it being a play.

I see little benefit to leaving this slot alive. If they're town, then it's going to be a huge lynchbait target for the scum so they can escape. If they are scum, then they're going to get out of here and escape at the first opportunity. Resolving this slot now rather than later seems like a good idea to me.

No idea, hence why I think it's a point against your wagon. But there's too much WIFOM there for me to necessarily go based off that entirely.

I think it's best to flip the scummiest slot today, which is still Menalque imo. This makes sense from my perspective, but from your perspective you don't want to be eliminated either way. It's an anti-town attitude.

Ewww. This vote the and the whole stream of posts following is so bad. Why are we not lynching here? Menalque says well hey yes sure I am probably the slot that needs to be evaluated today so definitely vote me. And guess what, people move off that wagon because "scum would never do that".

But scum will do it if they think it makes them look townie enough to give them a chance to escape. They remove some pressure and then stop self-voting.

Not to mention that self-votes are +scum like always.

I'm not seeing any reason not to lynch Menalque here. Yes maybe both scum bussed. It's not impossible. But I still think there are two other very likely scenarios, where it's 1v1 or both scum on snow. And I think in either of those, Menalque is an extremely good candidate for scum.

His primary reasons for scumreading me to today... don’t actually seem to be for scumreading me? The main focus of his push is “we should resolve mena today” because “if he’s town he’ll be guillobait later on”. Aside from that, he gives the reason, in 1036 there, that my defending mohab is scummy. Only

that’s not what I did from his point of view.

I didn’t defend mae, I pushed snow. Indirectly, it worked to defend mae, yes. But he agreed with the push! He also thought snow was scummier on balance on D1 and that’s why he voted there — I don’t think it makes sense that this is an important part of the few reasons he gives for actually scumreading me when he believed my case was good on D1.

Then on top of that the only other real reasons are “I could see it being a play” re: my entrance, that I hopped onto titus, and that I self voted briefly. But I’m not persuaded that any of these suggest he should have the level of confidence in me that he doesn’t feel the need to bother doing an ISO read through on me to try and sort me because they’re so compelling to not matter in face of the WIFOM of my slot — which, again, is the main thing he’s been using to try to get me guillotined, *not* my push on snow or my self vote or the other reasons he’s meant to be SRing me for.

***

There’s also one other thing that really bothers me and makes me feel like his reads are not real.

Look here:

In regards to A50, mostly POE yeah but I mean I wasn't too big of a fan during my ISO of them,

and then he sorta dropped off the face of the Earth which I don't really like.

Menalque I never felt the need to because I already scumread them. I do the big ISO/progression thing to help sort through slots I'm not sure about.

Two key points. (1) he read A50 and thinks A50 looks bad from the read through he did. (2) he only does the ISO on people he’s not sure about and therefore he didn’t do one on me because he’s that confident I’m scum.

Let’s see some of his positioning on A50:

Spoiler:

Town

Raya
RCE

S_S
Ydrasse

A50
Menalque

Scum

1039 Hey A50, I have responded, albeit late. This feels like a lot of worrying about how your motivations are perceived, which is something scum are inclined to do. Also the frustration presented here feels a little bit AtE so I'm definitely not a fan of this post.

[snip]

1152 Like you say, I think it's best to flip the scummiest slot today, which is still Menalque imo.

This makes sense from my perspective, but from your perspective you don't want to be eliminated either way. It's an anti-town attitude.

794 More hedging on the snow vs Mohab vs Titus now vote question. Would seem +scum to me in general. Meta-wise I don't recall A50 ever acting like this but I admit it has been a while.

So, not a fan of A50 really. He’s at the bottom of montosh’s readslist alongside me after the ISOing, despite there being a few things in there that montosh gives him towncred for. What I find most odd about this, is his take on A50 given the following remark:

109 Naked vote on Craig.

165 & 167 Homura pushes the idea that Craig/Menalque's joke scumclaim is somewhat AI despite the riskiness of bussing. Doesn't feel like two scum distancing. As of now wouldn't put Menalque and A50 on the same team.

He says he doesn’t think that A50 and I are likely to be on the same team. He never retracts this thought or revisits it. He doesn’t have the thought later “oh, maybe they could be because X” nor does he double down on it as “yeah, I’m still really sure mena and A50 can’t be partnered because Y”.

This seems very strange to me in light of the fact that he (1) puts us both next to each other in the bottom of his readslist, when I think it would make sense to say “one of (mena/A50)“ there. But also (2) if he’s convinced I’m scum and thinks we’re unlikely to be scum together, how does this post

In regards to A50, mostly POE yeah but I mean I wasn't too big of a fan during my ISO of them, and then he sorta dropped off the face of the Earth which I don't really like. Menalque I never felt the need to because I already scumread them. I do the big ISO/progression thing to help sort through slots I'm not sure about. There was a wagon on A50 at the time and I wasn't sure how I felt about it.

Make sense from town!montosh? If he thinks A50 is reasonably likely as scum and he thinks that we’re unlikely to be scum together, he should be ISOing me (which would also fit with what I think is a lot of very weak reasoning for his scumread and justifications based on “it would be wifom to leave mena alive”). If he really is sold that I’m scum strongly, shouldn’t he be bumping A50 up in his reads/giving him the benefit of the doubt, given his previous expression of belief that we’re not aligned with one another?

This feels to me a *lot* like keeping his options open for either of us tomorrow as a push.

***

Okay, that’s it. We don’t have ages until deadline, and I do understand it if no-one wants to do another CFD but I think this is quite a compelling case for montosh!scum. I’ll be around-ish today to talk to people about it.

VOTE: montosh

[Menalque]

I um, didn’t mean for it to be that long or realise how long it was getting. Please read it through properly, it’s quite clear I think!

[Menalque]

I got nothing.

I guess I'm gonna have to read Menalque's case but I have a very complicated relationship with wallpost cases and by complicated I mean I hate them.

I think it’s very simply laid out — I can try to do you a tl;dr summary later when I get home

[Menalque]

Eva, can you try to tell me where you think I’m going wrong on my montosh read then?

[Menalque]

also montosh’s relative indifference if he was mafia of being put into a losing position this close to eod would be odd.

Would it look better if he was desperately yelling that I was scum and that guillotining him was shit play?

[Menalque]

But I did have that thought. I just thought about it more and decided that a massive “don’t guillo me!” reaction would look just as bad?

[Menalque]

if we lynch town D3, we auto-win?

No, if we lynch scum D3 we auto-win

[Menalque]

Eva, can you try to tell me where you think I’m going wrong on my montosh read then?

It isn't so much as there's anything wrong, it just doesn't resonate with me. I also mindmeld with Montosh more than I let on and I don't think he's scum(?)

~Eva

Okay

I kind of don’t wanna fight you on it after yesterday but I think montosh and I’m not sold enough on A50 to want to change

[Menalque]

Sorry, Eva, I don’t or at least I don’t > montosh

[Menalque]

Weirdly maybe, I didn’t find it stressful. Maybe a little frustrating at points. Hopefully this is GG

[Menalque]

VOTE: RCE

[Menalque]

VOTE: RCE

Why?

I think he didn’t play D2 because it would give him enough cred to try and come for my today. If he’s committed to me being scum, he should have been on me hard yesterday, not just passively sitting there

But I had a very townie D2 and that made it difficult. Given that I was wrong again D2, he thinks he can win the 1v1 today (or just generally get me flipped easily if I don’t go after him)

[Menalque]

But also, I don’t care that much at this point. I get A50’s point about it being frustrating to effort and be mis-guillotined anyway. I don’t think I could have had a townier D2, really. I think I did several things that I specifically don’t do as scum and I think I made plays that don’t make any sense coming from me as scum. I’m annoyed with eve for still wanting me flipped on the basis of that, and because her read on me seems to be some combination of “mena push town D1” + paranoia about my scumgame (which is good, but not good enough for this to be an example of it)

And I also would prefer to lose to A50 than to RCE

[Menalque]

If we’re committing on the “flip on snow!wagon until scum turns up” thing which is what eve seems to want to do and honestly my reads have been trash thus far and I cba to fight that, nor do I even know if I really want to

[Menalque]

I fundamentally don’t think I can look any townier than I already do at this point, and if that’s not towny enough then this is probably a lost game and I’m making my peace with that

I’d self again only I guarantee that the same town who vote me today are the ones who will be going “OH MY GOD can you BELIEVE that mena would SELF VOTE as town that’s such an ANTITOWN play his behaviour is so UNACCEPTABLE” despite them not being willing to approach me today with an honest assessment of my play so far

Maybe I’m overreacting but this is basically what I called would happen yesterday when I said “if you think you’ll have major doubts about me going on, remove me today and get my flip”. I just think that everyone who’s town bar titus seems to have relaxed on their TR on me, and I think that the other unconfirmed town will sheep that, and the unconfirmed scum are going to behave like vultures

[Menalque]

VOTE: ydrasse

[Menalque]

Also, she’s on me rn and not A50

[Menalque]

can we like actually vote in a50/mena today though

the two people who have been on one attempted and one successful town elimination?

It’s lowkey kinda scummy to be shading me for the montosh wagon when it was literally me and A50 + every conftown in the game

[Menalque]

I feel bad for being wrong on snow

I feel pretty okay with being wrong on montosh and don’t think he was very townie, and I think the fact that every single conftown voted him with me is reflective of that

[Menalque]

I mean I’m not taking it personally, I just think it’s a scummy thing for you to be doing?

[Menalque]

can we like actually vote in a50/mena today though

the two people who have been on one attempted and one successful town elimination?

It’s lowkey kinda scummy to be shading me for the montosh wagon when it was literally me and A50 + every conftown in the game

How when you two are literally her preferred pool?

Because it’s weird to be shading me for being on a wagon that literally every conftown in the game was ultimately okay with even if only begrudgingly in the case of umlaut and eevee?

Her shading me *in general* is like ehh whatever

Her arguing *in particular* that it’s scummy to be on a wagon that I know is at least 6/7 town and which to every conftown was 5/7 town is just scummy, because it was good faith and it was a reasonable enough belief that montosh was scum given that

every single conftown was willing to go there in the end

[Menalque]

Maybe eevee a little less who only voted there to speed up deadline, tbf

But umlaut preferred A50 but was also talking about how my case was good on montosh

[Menalque]

can we like actually vote in a50/mena today though

the two people who have been on one attempted and one successful town elimination?

It’s lowkey kinda scummy to be shading me for the montosh wagon when it was literally me and A50 + every conftown in the game

How when you two are literally her preferred pool?

Because it’s weird to be shading me for being on a wagon that literally every conftown in the game was ultimately okay with even if only begrudgingly in the case of umlaut and eevee?

Her shading me *in general* is like ehh whatever

Her arguing *in particular* that it’s scummy to be on a wagon that I know is at least 6/7 town and which to every conftown was 5/7 town is just scummy, because it was good faith and it was a reasonable enough belief that montosh was scum given that

every single conftown was willing to go there in the end

There was little to no discussion about Montosh being scummy. You made a case last 24h of deadline that Montosh didn't have time to refute or defend.

That's not good faith it's a rushed elimination.

Lol, okay RCE

[Menalque]

Also being confirmed doesn't give them better reads. I don't trust any of the confirmeds reads, it's like I'm playing a completely different game right now.

This is just like a vaguely insane way to look at things. I would always trust the reads of confirmed players slightly more than those of unconfirmed players because I know that they’re at least scumhunting in good faith even if wrong. And you can build a synthesis off that to get better reads than you as an individual with your blind spots are likely to get

This is like the fundamental of townplay imo, and is basically necessary unless you have insanely high. % reads

[Menalque]

I’d really prefer and RCE guillo today but I doubt I’m going to get it

[Menalque]

If they didn’t think that it was a good wagon they wouldn’t have voted there?

I mean they kind of inherently did build the wagon by *making up the vats majority of the votes on it*

If they didn’t think that montosh was scum as a result of my case, idk why they switched

I think it was a persuasive case, I still think it was mostly solid in what I was thinking even though I was actually wrong

[Menalque]

I find RCE really really townie actually.

~Eva

Big disagree and idk why you think that

Willing to listen if you want to explain

[Menalque]

can we like actually vote in a50/mena today though

the two people who have been on one attempted and one successful town elimination?

Those are my preferred eliminations for sure. Kinda preferring menalque honestly. Probably worse to have doubts on his slot tomorrow if we end up being wrong on the elimination today

Right, and you want me now despite me *specifically offering myself up yesterday for this exact reason*

C O N V E N I E N T

[Menalque]

can we like actually vote in a50/mena today though

the two people who have been on one attempted and one successful town elimination?

It’s lowkey kinda scummy to be shading me for the montosh wagon when it was literally me and A50 + every conftown in the game

How when you two are literally her preferred pool?

Because it’s weird to be shading me for being on a wagon that literally every conftown in the game was ultimately okay with even if only begrudgingly in the case of umlaut and eevee?

Her shading me *in general* is like ehh whatever

Her arguing *in particular* that it’s scummy to be on a wagon that I know is at least 6/7 town and which to every conftown was 5/7 town is just scummy, because it was good faith and it was a reasonable enough belief that montosh was scum given that

every single conftown was willing to go there in the end

Honestly I think it's worse when a lot of conftown are on a wagon and only a couple unconfirmed are as well. It means the unconfirmed who weren't on it weren't on a mislynching wagon. So if scum was on that town wagon (which is quite likely) it would have to be within the few uncomfirmed on it.

Are you just intending to openwolf today or?

[Menalque]

I’d really prefer and RCE guillo today but I doubt I’m going to get it

Why?

Like if you were reading my posts you’d know because i already explained

[Menalque]

What does everyone think of an A50/Menalque team? I remember it was in Snow's list of unlikely but I forget why

lol

[Menalque]

I am really starting to come round to the sincere hope that town loses this

[Menalque]

Eh actually AtE is something I’m trying to stop doing even when it’s genuine so I’m gonna step away from the thread for a while

[Menalque]

Actually, until further notice I’m just gonna prodge when it comes up

If I decide this game deserves any more of my time than it got yesterday maybe I’ll try again

[Menalque]

can we like actually vote in a50/mena today though

the two people who have been on one attempted and one successful town elimination?

Those are my preferred eliminations for sure. Kinda preferring menalque honestly. Probably worse to have doubts on his slot tomorrow if we end up being wrong on the elimination today

Right, and you want me now despite me *specifically offering myself up yesterday for this exact reason*

C O N V E N I E N T

You've been pointing fingers a lot. And your cases are leading to miseliminations. I thought you were too scummy to be scum. Now I just think you're scum

Cool story raya

[Menalque]

can we like actually vote in a50/mena today though

the two people who have been on one attempted and one successful town elimination?

It’s lowkey kinda scummy to be shading me for the montosh wagon when it was literally me and A50 + every conftown in the game

How when you two are literally her preferred pool?

Because it’s weird to be shading me for being on a wagon that literally every conftown in the game was ultimately okay with even if only begrudgingly in the case of umlaut and eevee?

Her shading me *in general* is like ehh whatever

Her arguing *in particular* that it’s scummy to be on a wagon that I know is at least 6/7 town and which to every conftown was 5/7 town is just scummy, because it was good faith and it was a reasonable enough belief that montosh was scum given that

every single conftown was willing to go there in the end

Honestly I think it's worse when a lot of conftown are on a wagon and only a couple unconfirmed are as well. It means the unconfirmed who weren't on it weren't on a mislynching wagon. So if scum was on that town wagon (which is quite likely) it would have to be within the few uncomfirmed on it.

Are you just intending to openwolf today or?

Tell me what's wrong with my logic

It is laughable to the point that I’m legit not gonna bother

[Menalque]

I once counterclaimed skitter as a 1 shot vig in mylo and then retracted to a full vig claim which would have meant a like 3% chance of that setup existing and then won in that mylo, so yeah, sure, I probably would if I felt the game was losing if we didn’t risk it

[Menalque]

Also, in this PL I wanna say A50 and S_S are the only ones to have played against scum!me

[Menalque]

Okay, leaving again

[Menalque]

Snow, why is it not ydrasse? Or why is it more important to you to do S_S today?

[Menalque]

Occam's razor says menalque pushing town with SvT h2h wagons, claiming scum him would just push the unconfirmed on that wagon then pushing the unconfirmed on that wagon to an elim, and all the defending of Mohab day 1 just points to him being scum.

I hate the idea of losing to menalque scum with all of that pointing to him but he gets away with it because he put in effort.

Posts like this are why I feel that your engagement with me today has not been in good faith. You’re starting off, I think, from a position that I’m scum and then explaining my actions in light of that.

For instance, what do you mean about “claiming scum him would just push the unconfirmed on that wagon then pushing the unconfirmed on that wagon to an elim”? How is this scum!indicative for me fypov?

I also think that people aren’t just townreading me for efforting D2 (and if you are, um, that’s a bad way to read me unless I’m coming in off the back of several scumgames or really burned out, I’m quite capable of efforting as scum when needed). I think they’re townreading me because my trajectories don’t make a lot of sense if I’m scum, outside of some fairly outlandish scenarios (like me being scum with A50). Like, for instance, everything that happened on D2 — for me to be scum I have to have put in a load of effort, secured TRs on me to a sufficient extent that I wasn’t really at risk of being guillotined, only to risk throwing that all away by calling out that I thought scum was more likely to be doublebussing than to be double on which scum!me would know looks insanely scummy given that the initial TRs on my a lot D2 were from my insistence that we probably win by just flipping through the snow wagon one-by-one.

I think it would then also look bad for me to simply flip back to A50 because of feeling ehhh on ydrasse, and to then push montosh at the end of day knowing that if I redirected onto town it would again look bad for me. I just think these things are all very questionable form me in a world where I’m scum, and only really make sense if I am entirely going for a WIFOM based win. And I just think that doesn’t make sense given that I’m generally competent enough as scum to not need to do that, and prefer to play solidly rather than gamble on town falling for WIFOM.

[Menalque]

For instance, what do you mean about “claiming scum him would just push the unconfirmed on that wagon then pushing the unconfirmed on that wagon to an elim”? How is this scum!indicative for me fypov?

(1) Because things like this are narrative pushing. Like that specifically was you saying you wouldn't do xyz as town but would as scum, pushed something else and circled back to that thing scum!you would have done.

(2) The bad faith bit is inaccurate as well, I thought you were townish day 1 and votes on your preferred wagon with the caveat that Mohab!Scum likely points to you as scum.

She flipped scum. So even before mohabs flip there was content to pin you as partners and she flipped scum.

(3) I'm not overthinking this

.

(4) Day 2 I'm not super interested in screaming at the confirmed that they're wrong,

they can do their own thing since the game is ultimately in their hands not in the unconfirmeds. Which, fine, but frustrating.

(1) I don’t really see how this is narrative pushing but I’m open to it being that we have a different conception of what that means? I think you just end up in a world where anyone offering an explanation for their actions is “narrative pushing” and I don’t see how offering an explanation for your actions is inherently scummy or towny. I mean, yes, I’m arguing that this doesn’t make sense for me to do as scum because it leaves me in what I think is an objectively more difficult situation as scum? But I also more don’t understand what it is that you’re arguing I actually said/did, and I’d like you to explain that

(2) I kind of... don’t see that in your ISO? One of your opening posts is like an ambiguous thing on how MT repping in defaults my slot to scum and I admit to only having skimmed you now but I don’t think you particularly commit on my alignment other than “probably not partners with ydrasse or snow” and “could be partners with fredrick”. Could you point me to where you did this — like where you said you thought I was townish or behaved in such a way to express this + the bit where you said mohab!scum likely points to me!scum?

(3) like, I’m not asking you to overthink, I’m asking you, if you’re town, to have a meaningful engagement with me instead of writing me off as scum? Because I think you’re quite likely to be scum but I could be wrong and if I am I think my best chance of figuring that out is through talking to you about why you think what you think but that requires a two way street

(4) I don’t think anyone is asking you to, and I don’t think I did that either. I think you can still disagree with the conftown and push your own takes though. I feel like you were much more passive D2 compared to today. Do you think that’s a fair take? Why was that?

[Menalque]

You keep mentioning this doublebuss theory but still pushed on the snow wagon. So idk why you have been bringing it up.

Err, yeah, because I thought/think (honestly I’m not sure anymore, it seemed sound at the time though) that doublebussing is more likely than no bussing. But probably the most likely is one bussing and one not. And given that and that I was pushing what I still think was a p good case, I think it makes total sense that I pushed on the snow wagon, and I don’t think that’s in contradiction with the fact that I think that both (1) the most likely is that scum were 1 on 1 off and (2) if both scum did the same wagon it’s more likely they bussed than that both tried to save

[Menalque]

Idk fredrick, I kind of think the confirm pattern points to 1 on 1 off too, which is something I didn’t think about that much earlier

But if you’re both off, I think there’s a good case to say you just confirm literally the entirety of the mae wagon and force hunting within snow to be harder

Also I think you’d still end up having to do 1 person unconfirmed on mae who would be a paranoia fountain if chosen correctly for gylo

Whereas if double bussing I think the amount of leeway in having 3 unconfirmed is cutting it maybe a little too fine? I’m not sure, I think this is probably the situation where if it did happen could lead to the greatest variety of patterns

But like from a mechanical point of view, I think 1 on 1 off is best — if you figure people will incline towards going on the snow wagon you have a 25% chance of losing by EV followed by a 33% chance but then you can escape and your partner has a 33% EV

Whereas if you’re both off then under the actual confirmations you have a 66% chance of autoloss that goes down to 50% after one escape

If both in you have a 50% chance of autkisss that likely stays there. Vs if you confirmed no-one a 33% chance that stays at 33%

[Menalque]

I've basically decided that S_S is town now. I've been going back and forth on him in my head lately but I think I like him as town

Why?

[Menalque]

But then decides Chemist-slot is scum when that becomes a flashlynch option. He wasn't willing to change to Mohab, since he was set on Snow, but why change to Titus?

If i may:

Because I didn’t have chemist townlocked, I said I thought he’d lowkey town told. As in, I thought he was more towards town than scum but it wasn’t that strong. I voted titus because I did think it was hugely contradictory and avoidant for her to vote whoever she did at the time given her stated reads

[Menalque]

I'm thinking it's a pretty standard scum readlist, so the top townread is town, and so is the top scumlean. The townleans are confirmed town, so the only possible scum is Craig on this list, or they are not on this list at all. This also points to not RCE, probably (RCE was leading wagon at the time):

Why are you assuming it’s a standard scum readslist? Especially when if I were partnered the last place I would have told a partner to put me is in null

[Menalque]

I've basically decided that S_S is town now. I've been going back and forth on him in my head lately but I think I like him as town

Why?

Given that I a, voting him over both Menalque & Ydrasse I'd like to know why too.

Yeah, why is that actually?

[Menalque]

Titus, what does your VCA say on raya again?

[Menalque]

Eve and I have talked about it, and we think it's best to go Menalque today.

(1) He's done a lot of pro-scum things that the most likely explanation is he's just scum. (2) It feels wrong to take a leap of faith over the most likely option, and if that costs us the game, then at least we have less to regret.

Also, we already used our free leap-of-faith card.

Not talking about the Montosh lynch though; I don't think that was on him because conftown chose to switch, although I found Montosh one of the more townie unconfirms and

(3) I don't know if town!Menalque doesn't see that

. *shrug*

(4) Am gonna go through Menalque's ISO in a bit and see if there's anything worth pointing out

.

(1) okay, can we talk about this though? Because if you don’t really think montosh!wagon was a pro-scum thing, then I’d like to know what else I’ve done that’s pro-scum besides leading the snow wagon?

(2) because this kinda feels like you’re not actually that convinced that I am scum and you’re voting me more because you’re worried that I might be scum who’s played a blinder of a game and you’re more worried about losing to me here than you are about correctly getting scum today. Which is kind of fair, I’ve had those feelings about people before of “I’m gonna feel so awful about losing to you if you do flip scum in the end” but like, most of the time those people don’t flip scum and you’re just doing it to satisfy your own doubts. And I really don’t think this is the best approach to follow if you want to win (yes, I’m aware how rich this is coming from me, but I’ll say the same thing again in the postgame)

(3) err, why not? My reads are not great as town. Yeah, I normally end up voting scum at some point, but I wouldn’t necessarily say it’s standard for me to have voted scum within the first 2 days especially in a fairly strong PL and one where there’s been no NK

(4) okay, please do this

[Menalque]

Yoink

[Menalque]

I thought a not insubstantial chunk was also that you didn’t think I had many viable partners amongst the other unconfirmeds

[Menalque]

Okay, so like re: 1879 I don’t think that 736 is really committing you to a read on me, and I felt at the time that you were much more talking generally about the way I’d be perceived in the thread? And the second post doesn’t feel like yiure really saying you think I’m that scummy either, with the “it’s a bit on the nose for scum!menalque”. I guess I could have misread 736. But like essentially I’m still unclear from that on why I’ve been the super obvious slot to you that should be flipped since the start of D2?

[Menalque]

Especially considering that you voted snow with me and if you’re town idk why I deserve less benefit of the doubt fypov on just being wrong in the same way you were?

[Menalque]

(I just realised my argument is looking suspiciously like “too scummy to be scum” which I find pretty ironic considering how this game began!)

So when I've considered if Menalque would play this way as scum the likely answer is no. But I know a lot of people experiment with playstyles and I can't help but think the opening on Craig was telling that the slot was prepared to open wolf.

It's either that or menalque is having a very unfortunate game.

I mean, I was prepared to jokingly openwolf, I’m unclear why me doing this on an alt account says very much about my alignment?

And tbh, I don’t think I’m having that unfortunate a game? Like moderately bad, sure. I was on the wrong side of the D1 wagons, that was the most unfortunate thing. But I think I played D2 really well even if I was wrong in getting a decent number of people to see me as town or at least have very real doubts about my being scum

[Menalque]

Okay, so like re: 1879 I don’t think that 736 is really committing you to a read on me, and I felt at the time that you were much more talking generally about the way I’d be perceived in the thread? And the second post doesn’t feel like yiure really saying you think I’m that scummy either, with the “it’s a bit on the nose for scum!menalque”. I guess I could have misread 736. But like essentially I’m still unclear from that on why I’ve been the super obvious slot to you that should be flipped since the start of D2?

736 is literally if Mohab flips scum, flip menalque, town wins. I followed through with that idea through day 2 and ran into the confirmed wall.

I have the notes in a notebook but the gist is you had a scummy trajectory on Mohab and your reasoning for it does not hold up on reread.

For example (I'm recalling from memory) at one point your reasoning for defending Mohab was that snow was scum and scum were counterwagoning Mohab after they failed to get the wagon on me past 4-5 votes. With that in mind you didn't have any interest in the slots that were actively pushing both my and mohabs wagons.

So fmpov those kind of statements were more about defending Mohab than actually seeking a solve. I think the overlap on my wagon and mohabs wagon was like, Eevee/ydrasse. Both slots you townread by deadline.

Err, so I don’t think 736 is that clearly saying that, but okay

With regard to my trajectory, can you find the notes you have and put them out here? I’m also going off memory here but I don’t think I see the contradiction here. If I think that a slot is scum and the other slot is being counterwagoned by scum, I don’t know why I would redirect from the scum I think I have to try and hit who I think might be scum on the CW?

I also am pretty sure that I was very uneasy on eevee around end of D1 and said I thought she was a likely scumslot if snow flipped scum. I think I posted a potential solve that was exactly (snow, eevee, ydrasse) actually? It definitely had snow and eevee in it, I might be misremembering ydrasse in it too

So I guess I don’t think that’s how it happened and if you are remembering it that way I think you should check the posts again?

[Menalque]

I mean, I was prepared to jokingly openwolf, I’m unclear why me doing this on an alt account says very much about my alignment?

It's not alignment defining it's just an option that *could* explain your play in a bubble.

I don’t really get this, but it being something that could explain my play in a bubble isn’t something that I really find compelling and I’m not sure why/if you do?

[Menalque]

There are probably a lot of things that could explain my/others play in a bubble but they’re generally not things I would pay attention to

[Menalque]

All scum in (snow, ydrasse, RCE, fredrick, homura) is my early prediction

@eve i really don’t think mohab is a good guillo for today and we can revisit there later if the better slots for killin (suji, RCE, snow, ydrasse) don’t flip scum promptly

3/3 (suji, Holden, RCE, ydrasse, snow)?

I think I’m roughly at

Ydrasse, fredrick, umlaut
Holden, A50, RCE
Mohab
Chemist, S_S
Raya, eevee
Snow

Where my pool for scum is basically the last 5 names

I should also say: while my halves are mostly true, I may or may not have configured how much I townread some people or scumread others, and may or may not have put one of my top SRs in my TRs and vice versa

So these are the main pools that I can spot from looking at my ISO quickly, and i don’t think your point makes sense given that my later scumpool moved away from the unconfirmed slots and more into a group that is now decently confirmed? Also I just don’t really see that much benefit to scum!me in leaving my pool to match up a lot with the unconfirmeds? It’s just not really how I think about/approach a game, I’d worry more about who I thought I couldn’t get misguillo’d as scum than about lining up with my prior reads

Okay, so can you pull the posts that you’re talking about re: my defense of mohab/me waffling so I’m clear what we’re talking about?

[Menalque]

If you are town where does scum lie and why? Omgussing me doesn't do much to change my mind on you and makes this discussion largely unproductive.

I’m not sure is the answer

Currently I’m just sheeping titus due to my two pushes having been wrong so far

I am uneasy about how you/A50 have interacted all game especially given that you’ve doubled down on it. Idk if you would both do this as scum but I think one of you could be pocketing the other

Idk why you’re dismissing ydrasse as scum really? Like I said I think that a double bus is plausible but one on one off is probably the most likely? Which would mean if it’s not you it’s A50

[Menalque]

Okay, so which bits of that do you think are waffle and why do you think they are things I would do as scum?

[Menalque]

Also can you go into more depth on what about ydrasse’s trajectories you think make her not scum?

[Menalque]

I’m town

[Menalque]

Bad elim

[Menalque]

I’m lowkey disappointed that the various people who were correctly townreading me weren’t actually willing to fight for me on that

Also that I got hammered while I was asleep and before I could respond to eevee

[Menalque]

I’d like to suggest in my final words that you sheep titus tomorrow and not eevee — like obviously listen to them, but if it comes down to it and they’re both fighting in different directions, please vote on titus’ side

[Menalque]

Idk if there’s a lot of benefit to me giving my reads or not? Given the scum escape and that that would inevitably change them

[Menalque]

I don’t have good feelings on any of the remaining slots if I’m honest and I’ll try to explain why so you can look at it tomorrow:

A50 — just hasn’t really played at all. Says that this is because he doesn’t want to effort and then be misguillod anyway, but he hasn’t been at that much risk of that for a while and still has avoided playing. Strong associatives with RCE but unclear if partners taking a big gamble or if one is deliberately muddying the waters for after they escape.

RCE — has felt off all game. Has been pursuing the ‘easiest’ misguillotine in me for the last 2 days. His engagement with me has felt evasive and surface level. Has been trying to suggest that A50 should be cleared if we flip him, but again, possibly trying to just create negative associations there where only 1 is scum.

S_S — A50 is right that he feels similar to in jk9++ and unengaged. Suji doesn’t like scum/doesn’t feel comfortable as scum, especially if there’s no strong presence there to guide him. Could make sense that he didn’t post at all with a scum role PM.

Ydrasse — titus’ VCA says she’s the most likely scum alongside A50. She also may have a tell that I don’t want to out, but if said tell is correct then she’s scum.

Raya — I disagree that she’s playing to her town meta. I read a previous game of hers and had her picked out as town pretty early on and that read never really changed. Here I just don’t get the same sense? Also, would need to read back through, but impression is she lacks conviction. Like her move onto me here after having supposedly been convinced by snow that I don’t make sense as scum with many people

[Menalque]

Frankly I think removing me was a serious misplay given how little sense a lot of things I did made from a scum!pov. Like the logic around me pushing montosh after my double bus theory or my voting titus and leaving my viable counterwagon to a scumbuddy to do so are not wise things for scum!me to do. The reasons I was scumread were just for being wrong, which is dumb.

Now you’re left with a bunch of slots who haven’t been playing the game that much, and the most obvious scum is going to escape.

[Menalque]

I also find it objectionable that I said “if you have major doubts about me that are going to interfere with your ability to sort me accurately, just remove me today” yesterday, and was fully willing to just give my reads and go with that, only to be guillotined today after having, I think, done enough to redeem my slot to those not consumed by paranoia.

[Menalque]

I guess I’m salty because I feel like I did try fucking hard yesterday only for eevee to, i think, not actually engage me on why what I’d done didn’t make sense and to hardpush my misguillo for ?? reasons.

[Menalque]

Eve and I have talked about it, and we think it's best to go Menalque today.

(1) He's done a lot of pro-scum things that the most likely explanation is he's just scum. (2) It feels wrong to take a leap of faith over the most likely option, and if that costs us the game, then at least we have less to regret.

Also, we already used our free leap-of-faith card.

Not talking about the Montosh lynch though; I don't think that was on him because conftown chose to switch, although I found Montosh one of the more townie unconfirms and

(3) I don't know if town!Menalque doesn't see that

. *shrug*

(4) Am gonna go through Menalque's ISO in a bit and see if there's anything worth pointing out

.

(1) okay, can we talk about this though? Because if you don’t really think montosh!wagon was a pro-scum thing, then I’d like to know what else I’ve done that’s pro-scum besides leading the snow wagon?

(2) because this kinda feels like you’re not actually that convinced that I am scum and you’re voting me more because you’re worried that I might be scum who’s played a blinder of a game and you’re more worried about losing to me here than you are about correctly getting scum today. Which is kind of fair, I’ve had those feelings about people before of “I’m gonna feel so awful about losing to you if you do flip scum in the end” but like, most of the time those people don’t flip scum and you’re just doing it to satisfy your own doubts. And I really don’t think this is the best approach to follow if you want to win (yes, I’m aware how rich this is coming from me, but I’ll say the same thing again in the postgame)

(3) err, why not? My reads are not great as town. Yeah, I normally end up voting scum at some point, but I wouldn’t necessarily say it’s standard for me to have voted scum within the first 2 days especially in a fairly strong PL and one where there’s been no NK

(4) okay, please do this

Like unless I’m missing it, I don’t think eevee ever actually even bothered to engage with me on this? Which doesn’t feel like they were bothering to even try and sort me in good faith any more and had decided just to tunnel until I was dead

[Menalque]

Also umlaut I have no idea why you hammered someone who you were correctly townreading while there were still 6 days to turn it around

[Menalque]

I think you played very well, snow. Sorry about pushing you D1. Your analysis on why I wasn’t scum was really spot on, it’s a shame no-one wanted to listen

[Menalque]

Possible teams with both scum on my day one wagon

RCEnigma/Almost50

Possible Teams with both scum on the Maemuki wagon day one

Something_Smart/Raya36
Ydrasse/Raya36

Possible teams with one scum on each day one wagon

Menalque/Something_Smart
RCEnigma/Something_Smart
RCEnigma/Ydrasse
Almost50/Something_Smart

There doesn’t appear to be any pair of eliminations that gives us an auto-win assuming I haven’t ruled out the actual team. The closest I can get is S_S and RCE, and that still loses to Raya/Ydrasse.

I suggest you try to force the rest of the conftown to engage with you on this once you have a scum confirmed

[Menalque]

To double check you haven’t cleared anyone who shouldn’t be cleared, for instance

[Menalque]

EV is now down to 25% so scum probably win, which I think they deserve

[Menalque]

Oh, I was prodded.

VOTE: Menalque

We're going to do this anyway so let's just get it done.

[Menalque]

Sorry, not feeling up to mafia. I haven't read the last few pages in detail, but I will do that and respond to things better Soon.

Basically, I think Menalque is scum because
- Hard Snow push (this is the most pro-scum thing, as we can all agree)
- Mohab defence (the problem with this is the reasons he townread Mohab for are dodgy. I don't claim to know Menalque *that* well, but from a past town game I remember, he was more cautious/suspecting, and he doesn't exactly give *a lot* of leeway for newer players. This townread was handed out a bit too easy and feels unnatural)
- Trying to flashwagon Titus when from his point of view, Snow should be more scummy. This makes it look like he's willing to go anywhere but Mohab.
- His double-bus theory, but then going for Montosh (if he believed in his theory, he would not have gone this way)
- The Montosh case (the case itself, not the outcome because he's not to blame for that, is pro-scum)

A popular counterargument is "this is why does scum do this?" / "This makes no sense for scum to do because it looks so blatant" but I don't think that's a good reason considering scum don't always do what's optimal. Or they do what's optimal for them, and then try talk their way out of it, which I suspect is a play Menalque would be willing to go for.

Also, I guess you could say this could all be a horrible series of accidents, but the more likely explanation is he's scum. Could I be wrong? Yes. But we should go for the most likely option.

~Eva

[Menalque]

Yeah... I'll move back to Menalque

VOTE: Menalque
That's E-1!

[Menalque]

VOTE: Menalque

[Menalque]

*nodding sagely*

VOTE: menalque

[Menalque]

VOTE: Menalque I'm cool with ending the game.

[Menalque]

Aww, I’m just trollin’ but no-one’s here to see it

I was scum, GG town

[Menalque]

I really should have committed harder on the push to save mohab D1 I think that was the big mistake

[Menalque]

I really thought I’d gotten away with it on D2 as well

[Menalque]

Thanks for modding NSG! I do like the setup it’s just feels so townsided if scum get hit D1

[Menalque]

So, going to tell us who your partner was?

You had it right, it was S_S

[Menalque]

That’s why things got so out of hand on D1

Like both my partners were super inactive in the early phase and S_S isn’t exactly high impact normally, plus he didn’t want to tie us together too strongly for mechanical reasons

And we figured saving mohab/mae would be good but that if the wagon was under suspicion I’d have a better chance of fighting it off than him, so I should stay on and he should bus

[Menalque]

Sorry for the misguillo @montosh, I wanted to preserve A50 because I was worried that if he flipped then I was like the obv D3 flip and keeping him alive slightly reduced the odds of that happening. I thought about pushing RCE there instead, as I thought both of you were pretty locked onto me but I thought he had more people townreading him and less like ~*obvscummy*~ content in his ISO/less contradictions that I could point to

[Menalque]

Dammit. Sorry Menalque I tried.

Ehh, it’s cool, I get why you were a bit burned out after jk9++ and I do still begrudgingly agree that we shouldn’t have aligned too strongly in what we were pushing

[Menalque]

Eevee i might nom for moment of brilliance tbh, they played super well in getting mohab through and then not losing focus on me while I was trying so hard to pocket them

[Menalque]

Thanks umlaut, I really thought that I had you and snow sufficiently pocketed

Titus I didn’t but hey, I wasn’t gonna argue with her VCA when it was clearing for me

Fredrick i had no idea what he was doing with the hops and general lack of explanation, just seemed like he was often happy to sheep whatever the strongest push at the time was so I thought if I pushed ydrasse hard as deadline approached he’d probably change too

Eevee was the only one who I felt I really didn’t have a solid handle on getting to TR me from the confirmeds

[Menalque]

I think even with losing this may be one of my best scumgames yet, like I basically never manage to maintain effort when I know I’m already in a losing position, definitely not across multiple days. I kind of had lost motivation when a load of people started voting me as the day kicked off and figured I’d try to ape A50 and go for the “I just cba to play” thing

[Menalque]

I felt like snow wasn’t getting enough traction to actually prevent the flip and I thought that with titus’ vote being so different form her stated reads there was a chance that we could just flashwagon her under deadline pressure

Also I didn’t really know snow but titus is like an active worry to have in a game as town so I was willing to take a chance

Plus without the confirmations it was like, maybe we can then push the snow wagon through D2 as well, and then there would be no confirming 5 town slots going on

[Menalque]

Plus figured I could easily explain it away as “oH bUt wHy wOuLd i StOp vOtiNg tHe CoUnTeRwAgOn tO mY bUdDy?!?”

[Menalque]

ydrasse up in here with the savage trolling

(sorry NSG it had to be said! no more posting from me until endgame officially comes in, sorry!)

[Menalque]

Raven, who were you?

[Menalque]

I actually agree with ducky that Fredrick deserves a lot of credit here. That was my impression from the dead thread — either one alone was unlikely to turn it around.

[Menalque]

I have mixed feelings about this game. I might go into it later if I’m in the mood. Overall I think town deserved the win, but only on the basis that I think A50 dropped off the face of the earth and got complacent on D4. I think based on D1-D3 scum prob deserved to win/played better.

Thank you for modding, NSG!

[Menalque]

I did see the irony of you bringing up that game as an example of me misreading you as scum for the same reasons as here while A50 was very hard at work pocketing you

[Menalque]

Montosh was a bad push in hindsight, I’m not sure why I was so wrong there, my inclination is that it was OMGUS skewing my reads which is the same thing happening with you by that point (although, I was at least easing on that when I decided to try to force you to engage with me, and like, might have come off it if that conversation hadn’t been cut short).

I probably should have stayed on S_S as the scummiest looking individual slot to me D2. I think I left him alone because everyone was talking about ydrasse or A50 (also not wrong) and so once I’d thought “mm, yeah, let’s go one of those two” I just... never really reconsidered that I didn’t actually have reasons for *stopping* SRing S_S, and montosh is where my attention redirected to.

[Menalque]

That actually twigged me hard in Smuggler’s Port (running simultaneously to this) he responded to what was practically the same question like this:

Hi S_S

Is this yet another game where you’re going to fool me as scum?

I'm not going to fool you as scum...

Spoiler:

because I already HAVE fooled you! mwahahaha

*cough* sorry, what?

[Menalque]

I guess the frustrating things about this game was that I chose to play D2 and maybe I shouldn’t be salty when that was something I could have just... not done instead. I’m glad that I was pretty close to bang on for my logic of what scum were thinking about bussing/defending on D1 in the scum PT when I argued for one-off, one-on or double bus being more likely than a double defend. I’m glad I was right that my death was necessary for town to successfully re-evaluate. It was frustrating that that was *still* needed by D3 when I think I had done a lot of things by that point that I just wouldn’t have done as scum. Thinking I would required the belief that I have no idea how I’m perceived within the thread which is normally something I’m pretty hypersensitive to, even if I’m still wrong sometimes. So I feel like my miselim by the end was pretty much entirely based on a paranoia about my scumgame and a lack of willingness to engage with what I’d done on D2 and into D3 (despite me being wrong on D1).

[Menalque]

I suppose I just think in most cases paranoia hurts more than it helps. Like for me to be scum this game I had to (1) consciously look terrible for trying to save my buddy while not fully committing on pushing the counter through (2) decide, after getting to a point where I was unlikely to be the D2 elim even if we did go on snow!wagon that I would draw attention to myself by saying “hey, err, actually I think they might both have been on mae” (3) after coming up with that stance as scum (maybe to justify pushing there D3 after someone else on snow!wagon was eliminated, so there’s still like a ~*vague*~ chance I might be scum) i then (4) fail to commit to it for the cred and come back to saying ahh fuck it let’s go on snow!wagon after all and finally (5) decide to build a big case on montosh for shits and gigs of getting him eliminated there, which I wouldn’t need to do or have an incentive to do — he’d be much better kept as a miselim for later on given how easily all the conftown ended up swinging onto him

And like, I suppose it would have depended on who my partner was, but actually I think I normally would escape? I don’t normally go for the big WIFOM plays as scum unless I really need to (even tho I may want to) and the risk-reward of people’s paranoia being too high to not kill scum!me on D4 would probably sway me into the solid move of just leaving, trying to antispew my partner and create bad associatives with a townie, and trusting my partner to get it done

Maybe we have different perspectives on who we’re willing to lose to? I’d always rather lose to active scum who may have done something daring and risky than to scum who just decide to coast out and hope town will guillotine the superficially bad looking people

[Menalque]

I wasn’t in this game just spectating.

That explains it, I was briefly so confused

[Menalque]

Ehh I think I view elimming lurk prone slots as policy lynching. Winning or losing when that's the scum makeup is underwhelming either way, makes me just....not want to play in the first place.

Maybe it is a bit underwhelming but like... it’s still right a lot of the time? It was right here. Like yes, I’d much rather every slot play the game hard and figure out the scum in the middle of all that and that’s definitely the most satisfying way to win but like... that doesn’t happen very often, and I’d much rather be able to say “ah well, I lost, but at least you did look like town and you were working your ass off” then “oh, you were scum all along and just... didn’t post”

But yeah, I guess philosophical difference here

[Menalque]

With point 2.) You were trying to get that across in game but like. You held both stances at one point and neither of them are really attention grabbing because neither is more likely than the other. Going into day 1 it was agreed bussing was a negative utility play for scum and they busses anyway when they had every opportunity to just...not.

Like worst case for scum is Mohab/Mae votes snow and they go down day 2 for it but with 0 confirmed going into the day. I wouldn't even have blamed them for a survivalistic vote there.

I'd be a hypocrite because I literally voted myself over having to Lynch ydrasse but it's not super scummy to put yourself first day 1.

Ehhh, but like I think one is more likely than the other? I mean admittedly it was, in the end, one-on one-off but scum have to have a plan and that plan can only be one of three things: both bus, one on one off, both defend. And just because it’s not known which world we’re in at the time, one of those is more likely than the other two, and then another one is more likely of the two after that.

I don’t think bussing was as negative utility as it was made out to be because of the questions around WIFOM, but I don’t think that the bus was done optimally. But even with that said, it was still enough for S_S to dodge the guillo for 2 days.

I also disagree on the final bit? Like the worst case is that *if* scum definitely survives D1 and gets flipped D2 then I think that is strongly indicative that they were protected on D1, and so it would make a lot of sense to just look at whoever was defending them/who made a crucial switch over. And then with the confirmations on the other wagon, I think town has a much easier game than we actually did.

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I’m sad mae didn’t get a chance to actually play after seeing her posts in the scum pt

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I’m so sad that you correctly realised I was trolling endgame so quickly

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I’m always obvtown ducky, just remember that and you’ll never go wrong on me!