Final Fantasy XIV - A Realm Reborn Mafia (Game Over)

[mastina]

JOIN RAID;
CLAIM: I HAVE a 1X ABILITY TO GUARANTEE A RAID SUCCEEDS

[mastina]

JOIN RAID;
CLAIM: I HAVE a 1X ABILITY TO GUARANTEE A RAID SUCCEEDS

Am phoneposting, so can go into details later, but y'all can discuss which of the 3 options below are best:
-Dont use it
-Use it
-Dont announce use/not use of the guaranteed success, but use some private method to determine which.

Regardless, I should be a part of the raid.

I can claim details + RVs reads once home. Which will be in 6+ hours, so later tonight.

[mastina]

JOIN RAID;
CLAIM: I HAVE a 1X ABILITY TO GUARANTEE A RAID SUCCEEDS

Am phoneposting, so can go into details later, but y'all can discuss which of the 3 options below are best:
-Dont use it
-Use it
-Dont announce use/not use of the guaranteed success, but use some private method to determine which.

Regardless, I should be a part of the raid.

I can claim details + RVs reads once home. Which will be in 6+ hours, so later tonight.

First matter of business: I decided to not do the fullclaim of the ability here. I figured that the ability might not be unique to me, and while me fullclaiming it would conftown me to any others with the ability, that's redundant--I'm fairly confident in my ability to show myself to be town without relying on a role to do so, meaning it's more valuable for me to hold off on the info to potentially conftown someone else with the power.

I will say that's not my only power, but obviously I see no reason to fullclaim right out of the gate D1.

Soo mastina uses her role to auto succeed raid and then gets another auto succeed.
Seems cool

I did check with the mod, and as a matter of fact: yes. That's in fact how it works! The mod confirmed that me using my 1x guaranteed raid success...will give me another shot at a guaranteed raid success.

The downside to me claiming/confirming this is that now all scum with X-shots know they can get another X-shot but hopefully the town can get more mileage out of the raid. (I claimed without knowing what the raid bonus was, I saw my role earlier, formed a plan for what I'd do on daystart, I was phoneposting when the game started, so didn't know the ramifications until now.)

Anyway, I may or may not be around to get reads. (I was mostly reading to see use/don't/hide-which opinions, encountered this post, logged in to ask the mod, and got my answer thus me posting now.) If I'm not around for reads I'll give them later tonight; if I am around for reads, well, then, you'll get them almost immediately.

[mastina]

(In my defense I thought my role was probably one of the weakest in the game. I, uhhh...mayyy have misjudged my role's strength since it seems I

might

be one of the strongest roles in the game...... )

[mastina]

VOTE: Sakura Hana
Second.

VOTE: Bell
I'm abusing the bell tell

Flops
VOTE: Momrangel

Town.

(No Town? or confident Scum? or Scum on P1, unfortunately.)

[mastina]

I kinda don't believe you're telling the whole story about your role Mastina but if it does work that way then absolutely use it.

Oh meant to include this. I'm telling the full truth; I have a one-shot ability that guarantees a raid succeeds. I've not paraphrased the ability's nature and I have at least one additional power outside of my 1x-raid-succeed, but I am not leaving anything out like conditions or whatnot. It's one-shot, it makes the raid succeed, I confirmed with the mod that the raid bonus means making this raid succeed gives me a second use of the ability, I could give the exact wording (well, close as can be without getting modkilled obv) but I don't feel the need to, because the important thing was to claim the mechanic since it felt like a role I had no reason to not reveal and use.

That having been said.

Vote: RealCheeks

.

I'm having trouble forming reads on most players I'm seeing posting. I've a few names I think are town but most are ~static~ to me; you're the first name whose static has red particles to me where I can get some semblance of a read which is south of null, but it's like...by 1-2%. (Thus the use of bold vote rather than vote tag vote.)

[mastina]

HAVENT READ BUT

join raid join raid join raid

(SirCakez is another 1-2% scum name here.)

I mean Mirio is right but am I that different from Nancy?
There’s also the fact that I am male and Qrow is male
-Qrow (aka Gamma)

However I think I have a much better vote now.

VOTE: Qrow and Raven.
Pretty sure they're scum. Like, compared to the 1-2% of SirCakez and RealCheeks, this is a solid 50-75%. Not 100% for sure but pretty damn high.
(To be clear, these percentages are on a scale of 0 to 100, where 0 is neutral, dead-null, and 100 is guaranteed scum.)

[mastina]

Let's see if putting things in a readslist helps my thoughts here.

Mirio
Bell
dwlee99

ArcAngel9
Mystic Bears (Noraa + Flea the Magician)
Save The Dragons
Titus
Toogeloo

Head One and Head Two (T3 + ManateeGal)
tictac
Tomorrow Corporation
Whemestar
Mandelbrot (House + Yume)
Sakura Hana
Momrangal
Romance
Elsa Jay

SirCakez
RealCheeks (RCEnigma + CheekyTeeky)

Qrow and Raven (Gamma Emerald + Nancy Drew 39)

Approximately: townread null-positive null-null-to-null-negative scumlean scum.

[mastina]

Also, my other head told me not to claim in full, but I feel you deserve to know that one of our abilities could be seen as kinda scummy.

This kind of post almost always comes from town but also I could see scum House doing this.

I'll sheep that. At least close enough to sheeping it.

Mirio
Bell
dwlee99
Head One and Head Two (T3 + ManateeGal)

Mandelbrot (House + Yume)

ArcAngel9
Mystic Bears (Noraa + Flea the Magician)
Save The Dragons
Titus
Toogeloo

tictac
Tomorrow Corporation
Whemestar
Sakura Hana
Momrangal
Romance
Elsa Jay

SirCakez
RealCheeks (RCEnigma + CheekyTeeky)

Qrow and Raven (Gamma Emerald + Nancy Drew 39)

Townread weak townread null-positive null-null-to-null-negative scumlean scum.

[mastina]

I found mastina

Boring. Everyone found mastina.

I mean I

said

I didn't need to fullclaim in order to spew myself town.

She is popping off, townreads me, and I feel like I you don't want me to townread her

I wouldn't call 1 scumread + 4 townreads + 2 scumleans + 1 townlean +a few null-positives to be 'popping off' in a game with this many players, honestly.

Also I'm getting nothing to refine my reads from these last few pages...

Mirio
Bell
dwlee99
Head One and Head Two (T3 + ManateeGal)

Mandelbrot (House + Yume)
Mystic Bears (Noraa + Flea the Magician)

ArcAngel9
Save The Dragons
Titus
Toogeloo

tictac
Tomorrow Corporation
Whemestar
Sakura Hana
Momrangal
Romance

Elsa Jay

RealCheeks (RCEnigma + CheekyTeeky)
SirCakez

Qrow and Raven (Gamma Emerald + Nancy Drew 39)

I GUESS this is a little change but it's not much.

[mastina]

I found mastina

Boring. Everyone found mastina.

I mean I

said

I didn't need to fullclaim in order to spew myself town.

She is popping off, townreads me, and I feel like I you don't want me to townread her

I wouldn't call 1 scumread + 4 townreads + 2 scumleans + 1 townlean +a few null-positives to be 'popping off' in a game with this many players, honestly.

Also I'm getting nothing to refine my reads from these last few pages...

Mirio
Bell
dwlee99
Head One and Head Two (T3 + ManateeGal)

Mandelbrot (House + Yume)
Mystic Bears (Noraa + Flea the Magician)

ArcAngel9
Save The Dragons
Titus
Toogeloo

tictac
Tomorrow Corporation
Whemestar
Sakura Hana
Momrangal
Romance

Elsa Jay

RealCheeks (RCEnigma + CheekyTeeky)
SirCakez

Qrow and Raven (Gamma Emerald + Nancy Drew 39)

I GUESS this is a little change but it's not much.

(Also pagetop.)

[mastina]

Mastina can you elaborate on your Cheeks read for me ^^

Sure. I'd expect to be able to read CheekyTeeky here as town if Cheeky were town but I'm struggling to do so.

Similarly, I'd expect a town-RCE to be a lot more...obviously town, for lack of a better word.

It's a read, but it's not a strong read.

I wouldn't call 1 scumread + 4 townreads + 2 scumleans + 1 townlean +a few null-positives to be 'popping off' in a game with this many players, honestly.

You said this then made 425

A post that has has literally half the playerlist as effectively null? As in, literally 10/20 slots a shade of null? That's not popping off, that's me being basically worthless.

This lacks something :/ I'm not sure what though

I can tell you what it's missing!

It's lacking conviction!

You know how normally in games I get into the "tunnel" mode, where I exaggerate both town/scumreads to be stronger than they actually are? How I will make pushes with confidence and conviction?

I'm struggling to do that this game. Closest I've got is my Qrow/Raven scumread (which might be a bit of the tunnel mode read), and a few of my townreads (Mirio/Dwlee come to mind as exaggerated townreads tho Bell's town enough that the townread on him isn't exaggerated). But I'm struggling to lock people down, and struggling when locking things down to make them be strongly so. I've got basically no conviction here and it fucking sucks.

Give it a bit of time tho, I'm sure that'll change eventually and slowly.

Mastina town
Flea town
Elsa Jay town
Qrow town

These reads are...somewhat suspicious, and my memory of STD is that...he does...a lot more than this as town?

Bell
Mirio
dwlee99
Mystic Bears (Noraa + Flea the Magician)
Head One and Head Two (T3 + ManateeGal)

Mandelbrot (House + Yume)

ArcAngel9
Titus
Toogeloo
tictac

Tomorrow Corporation
Whemestar
Sakura Hana
Momrangal
Romance

RealCheeks (RCEnigma + CheekyTeeky)
Elsa Jay
Save The Dragons


SirCakez

Qrow and Raven (Gamma Emerald + Nancy Drew 39)

[mastina]

Sure. I'd expect to be able to read CheekyTeeky here as town if Cheeky were town but I'm struggling to do so.

At the time of your read I don't think cheeky had posted besides checking in on her main and once in the hydra.
-R

Well that was part of the problem, yes, given I expect Cheeky to be a lot more active as town.
But even with Cheeky posting it continues to be the case; I'm not feeling a fire from Cheeky, for lack of a better term.

[mastina]

Do I even have to say how obvtown mastina is?

Can I just say that while me showing townness is something I get because I am town and genuinely feel like I've shown some of what makes me town, I'm kinda baffled by how

strongly

the townreads are because while I've shown some of what makes me town, the strongest markers of what make me look town to others (namely, conviction) have been absent so I kinda don't get it? Like, if I were going full-conviction-mode here, I'd not bat an eye at the description of me being obvtown as I'd agree. But I don't feel like I've obvtowned yet--towned, yes, but OBVtowned, not

that

strongly town yet. I've full confidence that I WILL be that obvtown eventually...but I don't feel like me as I currently am warrant that description? Townreads I get (I've done enough to earn them), locktown townreads where I am obvtown beyond any shadow of a doubt, I don't (I've not done enough to earn

that

).

Why is a 4 vote wagon

"Opportunistic as fuck"

?

If you had a flash-wagon on you, and you were town, what would

your

thoughts on the wagon be?

I believe I get where Titus is coming from and I think I just talked myself into a Titus townread because I don't think she fakes that thought process here as scum. (I believe it's within her capacity to fake it as scum, I just don't think she

did

fake it, and think it was genuine.)

Bell
Mirio
dwlee99
Mystic Bears (Noraa + Flea the Magician)
Titus
Head One and Head Two (T3 + ManateeGal)

Mandelbrot (House + Yume)

ArcAngel9
Toogeloo
tictac

Tomorrow Corporation
Whemestar
Sakura Hana
Momrangal
Romance

RealCheeks (RCEnigma + CheekyTeeky)
Elsa Jay
Save The Dragons


SirCakez

Qrow and Raven (Gamma Emerald + Nancy Drew 39)

Hard to tell how town Titus is precisely but I'll take the risk and put her in my strongest town tier.

[mastina]

Explain Dwelee and Elsa.

Well Dwlee's content looks town enough. I'm not sure but he's town enough for now.

Elsa's content looks incredibly lackluster. It overall looks closer to scum not having a good grasp on what to do instead of town, but is not strong because it could just be town not having a good grasp on what to do. So, slightly suspicious, but not extremely suspicious.

I hadn’t even posted!

That was a huge part of the problem.

I realize that you had very very very serious shit going on and that meant a new fresh game was absolutely not on your priority list. But while I realize there's not a great way to handle out-of-game circumstances influencing games, that it's tricky to deal with them, I genuinely feel the way it was handled is indicative of your slot having a higher-than-random chance of being scum.

That's a shitty explanation, lemme see if I can try to better describe it.

Say a scummer was, suddenly and inexplicably, badly V/LA due to a hurricane, as an example.
The absence of the scummer from a game would, explicitly, be expected and NAI due to the bad V/LA thanks to the hurricane.
However, the alignment of the scummer in a game can still differentiate the specifics and how things manifest.
So in spite of the situation being the same regardless of alignment, of the scummer being badly V/LA due to a hurricane in this example, there can still be alignment information to be gleaned in how that V/LA manifested.
It's hard to approach because you don't want to frame things as "the scummer is scum from overplaying their V/LA to gain an advantage and the hurricane was not that bad"--that's the sort of thing you absolutely don't want to say.
But if the scummer as town would do X when badly V/LA due to a hurricane, but as scum would instead do Y when badly V/LA due to a hurricane, you still have a need to point out the difference between X and Y (in spite of the scummer having been badly V/LA due to a hurricane regardless of their alignment and not lying about their circumstances regardless of their alignment).

Hope that makes sense for what I am getting at.

To put it into this game's context, you being gone? Not suspicious. The manifestation of that, however, feels like the Y (scum) rather than the X (town) to me.

Also Gamma kinda looks like scum on his own. You're the easier head to read but just because you're not around doesn't mean I won't try to read you off of your partner's posting.

[mastina]

(Am reviewing Nancy now to refresh my Nancy knowledge. Am reconsidering my read, stand by, may have an update. Gimme like 20 minutes of reading other games to refresh my memory there for her.)

[mastina]

Unless "Town enough for now" is the same strength as "Strongest town tier"

Bingo.

I should probably invent a new tier of town for Bell tho as Bell's above that by now, but he's the only one I can say that of.

(Am reviewing Nancy now to refresh my Nancy knowledge. Am reconsidering my read, stand by, may have an update. Gimme like 20 minutes of reading other games to refresh my memory there for her.)

Btw did this and basic conclusion: need more Nancy posts to tell for sure. The content I see overall leans town but not absolutely so, meaning that I'll go with this:

VOTE: SirCakez

Nancy's not town to me yet but she deserves at the very least to not be my vote until I get her better locked down here given what I've seen compared to my refresher course on her play indicating her posts weakly indicate slightly more likely to be town (but with a need for more). Basically her slot's a lot closer to null now than scum, and I don't want to vote her unless I think she's scum, and I currently need more to tell town/scum on her but what she's given bumped her slot up from scum to null thusfar.

[mastina]

Have you ever checked the validity of that by using finished games with Mastina?

Welllllllll......

Green Cap Boys

The Emperor
ta vera

NorwegianboyEE

{

The Limit Does Not Exist, Dwlee99, Titus

}

cass.bruant

Fairy Circle (hydra of Momrangal and Flea the Magician)

Bingle

(I am allowed to be self-deprecating. )

this makes very little sense, nancy had done literally nothing, so unless you're talking about how I acted this doesn't track

Well, I was in fact talking about how you acted.

tictac is mechanically town; just trust me on this one. I'll elaborate on day 4 so hold me to this.

I'll buy that.

(ngl I am kinda...out of it. I don't really have the proper mindset to sort things out but I also feel like I should be doing so right now, am trying my best)

[mastina]

I expected her to interact with me at least somewhat.

You expected wrong.

I want my trader.

I read that as 'tradar'/'trade-ar', as in, a combination of 'trade' and 'radar' and was disappointed it was not that, as honestly, I want that, too. I want a trade in my scumhunting radar as my current one is basically nonfunctional.

Because, as you can see...

Bell

Mirio
dwlee99
Mystic Bears (Noraa + Flea the Magician)
Titus
Head One and Head Two (T3 + ManateeGal)
tictac*
Mandelbrot (House + Yume)

Toogeloo

Tomorrow Corporation
ArcAngel9

Whemestar
Sakura Hana
Momrangal
Romance
Qrow and Raven (Gamma Emerald + Nancy Drew 39)

RealCheeks (RCEnigma + CheekyTeeky)
Elsa Jay
Save The Dragons


SirCakez

*(Trust in another claim)

These reads are pretty damn shit.

[mastina]

So would you say that raids are similar to quests?

You may recall I got force-replaced in XP Mafia and I didn't follow allow after that, at all.

So I've no familiarity.

Bell

Mirio
dwlee99
Mystic Bears (Noraa + Flea the Magician)
Titus
Head One and Head Two (T3 + ManateeGal)
tictac*
Mandelbrot (House + Yume)

Toogeloo

Tomorrow Corporation
ArcAngel9

Qrow and Raven (Gamma Emerald + Nancy Drew 39)
Momrangal
Whemestar
Sakura Hana
Romance

RealCheeks (RCEnigma + CheekyTeeky)
Elsa Jay
Save The Dragons


SirCakez

Probably closer to this.

I don't feel good in my reads at all.

Sorry.

[mastina]

And I am kinda disappointed in mastina this game...

So am I!

I'm actually hard-disassociating right now. I'm onsite but I actually really don't want to be playing mafia right now. I'm not in the mindset for it. I'm not in the capacity to think. I'm not in the ability to be anything. I'm basically worthless. I've identified what's a type of localized depression which is particularly bad in this game, maybe with a side of the me that is fronting most right now being the me that isn't as fond of playing mafia so is less competent at it when forced into the role.

It's actually so bad that, no joke. I had the legitimate, genuine thought.

A thought I've never ever had before in a game.

No joke, first time I've ever had this thought before.

For this game.

I genuinely had the thought.

"Would it be better if I just...replaced out?" (or something similar)
Because I'm

not

, so to speak, "vibing" this game. I'm not resonating with it right now. I'm not "in" the game. I'm detached from it. I'm lost, I'm not able to focus, I'm not critically analyzing things and when I do I am wishy-washy about them, I'm reading but not truly comprehending and I genuinely don't think I can scumhunt right now.

And if I can't scumhunt, what good am I to the town? The main way I show my obvtownness is

through

scumhunting so I can't be obvtown without scumhunting and if I can't scumhunt right now I'm not contributing to the elimination of scum so if I'm not contributing to the elimination of scum and I'm not obvtowning thanks to not contributing to the elimination of scum...what good am I doing?

I'm not.

I know I'm not doing good and it's incredibly frustrating. The spark isn't there. I have a decent read on

why

the spark isn't there (disassociation, hardcore), but not how to get it back, other than:

"Wait, hope and pray."

Which, to be fair. Does work. Giving it time has, traditionally, always worked for me. While it's fairly rare, this is not the first towngame I've felt lost/detached from, and the 'give it time' approach was precisely what I needed in those games in order to get back into the swing of things. Sure enough, after I had the benefit of more time, I ended up being my normal self, contributing normally, having focus, having conviction, obvtowning, etc.

It's just that giving time is something that leaves me with only a hope of future-me being more suited to the task.

I'm sorry I'm not my normal self. Believe me, I

want

to be my normal self!
And you have my word that given extra time with extra flips and extra claims and extra scumhunting, I'll get better, more honed in, refined, etc. Which is why I'm not actually going to replace out, because I DO have faith in future-me to be the normal me.

But until then I'm just an extra body. I won't

hurt

the town in this state, but I can't help them in it, either. I'll be sure to tip the scales down the line as I've full confidence in my ability to do that once I have a good focal point. I just need to find it.

Until then, I know this sounds terrible, but.
I genuinely am considering just voting in the LHF that I don't townread and supporting other players doing the same.

RealCheeks (RCEnigma + CheekyTeeky)
Sakura Hana
SirCakez
Romance
(gap?)
Whemestar
Elsa Jay
Momrangal
Save The Dragons

(this is not a readslist, this is a reformatted thing.)
As in, genuinely, voting any of the names in here, preferably the lower names due to them being lower activity.

This list is based on perceived lack of activity and perceived low-hangingness of the names combined with lacking true townreads in the names listed, but basically.

I am genuinely considering just voting the names I don't think are doing much in the way of gamesolving, just to advance the game into a state where maybe, hopefully, down the line, I actually have some semblance of good reads.

[mastina]

And I am kinda disappointed in mastina this game...

So am I!

I'm actually hard-disassociating right now. I'm onsite but I actually really don't want to be playing mafia right now. I'm not in the mindset for it. I'm not in the capacity to think. I'm not in the ability to be anything. I'm basically worthless. I've identified what's a type of localized depression which is particularly bad in this game, maybe with a side of the me that is fronting most right now being the me that isn't as fond of playing mafia so is less competent at it when forced into the role.

It's actually so bad that, no joke. I had the legitimate, genuine thought.

A thought I've never ever had before in a game.

No joke, first time I've ever had this thought before.

For this game.

I genuinely had the thought.

"Would it be better if I just...replaced out?" (or something similar)
Because I'm

not

, so to speak, "vibing" this game. I'm not resonating with it right now. I'm not "in" the game. I'm detached from it. I'm lost, I'm not able to focus, I'm not critically analyzing things and when I do I am wishy-washy about them, I'm reading but not truly comprehending and I genuinely don't think I can scumhunt right now.

And if I can't scumhunt, what good am I to the town? The main way I show my obvtownness is

through

scumhunting so I can't be obvtown without scumhunting and if I can't scumhunt right now I'm not contributing to the elimination of scum so if I'm not contributing to the elimination of scum and I'm not obvtowning thanks to not contributing to the elimination of scum...what good am I doing?

I'm not.

I know I'm not doing good and it's incredibly frustrating. The spark isn't there. I have a decent read on

why

the spark isn't there (disassociation, hardcore), but not how to get it back, other than:

"Wait, hope and pray."

Which, to be fair. Does work. Giving it time has, traditionally, always worked for me. While it's fairly rare, this is not the first towngame I've felt lost/detached from, and the 'give it time' approach was precisely what I needed in those games in order to get back into the swing of things. Sure enough, after I had the benefit of more time, I ended up being my normal self, contributing normally, having focus, having conviction, obvtowning, etc.

It's just that giving time is something that leaves me with only a hope of future-me being more suited to the task.

I'm sorry I'm not my normal self. Believe me, I

want

to be my normal self!
And you have my word that given extra time with extra flips and extra claims and extra scumhunting, I'll get better, more honed in, refined, etc. Which is why I'm not actually going to replace out, because I DO have faith in future-me to be the normal me.

But until then I'm just an extra body. I won't

hurt

the town in this state, but I can't help them in it, either. I'll be sure to tip the scales down the line as I've full confidence in my ability to do that once I have a good focal point. I just need to find it.

Until then, I know this sounds terrible, but.
I genuinely am considering just voting in the LHF that I don't townread and supporting other players doing the same.

RealCheeks (RCEnigma + CheekyTeeky)
Sakura Hana
SirCakez
Romance
(gap?)
Whemestar
Elsa Jay
Momrangal
Save The Dragons
ArcAngel9

(this is not a readslist, this is a reformatted thing.)
As in, genuinely, voting any of the names in here, preferably the lower names due to them being lower activity.

This list is based on perceived lack of activity and perceived low-hangingness of the names combined with lacking true townreads in the names listed, but basically.

I am genuinely considering just voting the names I don't think are doing much in the way of gamesolving, just to advance the game into a state where maybe, hopefully, down the line, I actually have some semblance of good reads.

Edit by way of quote; I forgot to include ArcAngel9 in there.

[mastina]

(I should also clarify that I sorted it from highest-perceived-sortingness to lowest-perceived-sortingness in that AA9 followed by STD followed by Momrangal are the slots I think have sorted the least and RealCheeks followed by Sakura Hana followed by SirCakez are the slots on the list I think have sorted the most, with Romance up there as well and Elsa Jay similarly low to Momrangal/STD/AA9.)

[mastina]

And I am kinda disappointed in mastina this game...

So am I!

I'm actually hard-disassociating right now. I'm onsite but I actually really don't want to be playing mafia right now. I'm not in the mindset for it. I'm not in the capacity to think. I'm not in the ability to be anything. I'm basically worthless. I've identified what's a type of localized depression which is particularly bad in this game, maybe with a side of the me that is fronting most right now being the me that isn't as fond of playing mafia so is less competent at it when forced into the role.

It's actually so bad that, no joke. I had the legitimate, genuine thought.

A thought I've never ever had before in a game.

No joke, first time I've ever had this thought before.

For this game.

I genuinely had the thought.

"Would it be better if I just...replaced out?" (or something similar)
Because I'm

not

, so to speak, "vibing" this game. I'm not resonating with it right now. I'm not "in" the game. I'm detached from it. I'm lost, I'm not able to focus, I'm not critically analyzing things and when I do I am wishy-washy about them, I'm reading but not truly comprehending and I genuinely don't think I can scumhunt right now.

And if I can't scumhunt, what good am I to the town? The main way I show my obvtownness is

through

scumhunting so I can't be obvtown without scumhunting and if I can't scumhunt right now I'm not contributing to the elimination of scum so if I'm not contributing to the elimination of scum and I'm not obvtowning thanks to not contributing to the elimination of scum...what good am I doing?

I'm not.

I know I'm not doing good and it's incredibly frustrating. The spark isn't there. I have a decent read on

why

the spark isn't there (disassociation, hardcore), but not how to get it back, other than:

"Wait, hope and pray."

Which, to be fair. Does work. Giving it time has, traditionally, always worked for me. While it's fairly rare, this is not the first towngame I've felt lost/detached from, and the 'give it time' approach was precisely what I needed in those games in order to get back into the swing of things. Sure enough, after I had the benefit of more time, I ended up being my normal self, contributing normally, having focus, having conviction, obvtowning, etc.

It's just that giving time is something that leaves me with only a hope of future-me being more suited to the task.

I'm sorry I'm not my normal self. Believe me, I

want

to be my normal self!
And you have my word that given extra time with extra flips and extra claims and extra scumhunting, I'll get better, more honed in, refined, etc. Which is why I'm not actually going to replace out, because I DO have faith in future-me to be the normal me.

But until then I'm just an extra body. I won't

hurt

the town in this state, but I can't help them in it, either. I'll be sure to tip the scales down the line as I've full confidence in my ability to do that once I have a good focal point. I just need to find it.

Until then, I know this sounds terrible, but.
I genuinely am considering just voting in the LHF that I don't townread and supporting other players doing the same.

RealCheeks (RCEnigma + CheekyTeeky)
Sakura Hana
SirCakez
Romance
(gap?)
Whemestar
Elsa Jay
Momrangal
Save The Dragons
ArcAngel9

(this is not a readslist, this is a reformatted thing.)
As in, genuinely, voting any of the names in here, preferably the lower names due to them being lower activity.

This list is based on perceived lack of activity and perceived low-hangingness of the names combined with lacking true townreads in the names listed, but basically.

I am genuinely considering just voting the names I don't think are doing much in the way of gamesolving, just to advance the game into a state where maybe, hopefully, down the line, I actually have some semblance of good reads.

Edit by way of quote; I forgot to include ArcAngel9 in there.

(I should also clarify that I sorted it from highest-perceived-sortingness to lowest-perceived-sortingness in that AA9 followed by STD followed by Momrangal are the slots I think have sorted the least and RealCheeks followed by Sakura Hana followed by SirCakez are the slots on the list I think have sorted the most, with Romance up there as well and Elsa Jay similarly low to Momrangal/STD/AA9.)

And yes, I am fully aware this amounts to a "Lim All Lurkers" policy where lurker is defined not so much by posting as much as content within the posts but also to some extent still does factor in lower activity = higher-priority-elimination.

I realize that is not a good metric to reliably find scum and eliminate them.

But I don't really have anything better right now.

VOTE: STD

Sorry.

[mastina]

(For the record.
I am aware there's wagons on Romance and WhemeStar and both are reasonably active--I don't think my vote there helps any.

I am aware there's a wagon forming on ArcAngel9--my vote

could

help there, but I'd prefer to add it

after

she's posting, not before, because I feel my vote will do more if she's around than it would if she's not, in that if my lack of townread remains, a vote on her is more powerful with her posting than with her not.

I voted STD from my list because he's a slot that I think me voting actually can help, and is not more valuable with STD posting compared to not posting.

But if y'all ask me to, I'll vote anyone on my list probably and anyone on the lower half of the list definitely.)

[mastina]

Mastina your STD vote is bad

Is it?

I mean it explicitly isn't

good

. I'd be the first to say that. I KNOW it isn't good, I don't think I can

make

a good vote right now.

But a lack of it being good does not innately make it a bad vote and I do not think voting STD is a bad vote.

I don't think me voting Wheme/Romance does anything useful.

I don't think me voting ArcAngel9 is useful until she's actively posting.

But voting STD IS useful regardless of him posting/not posting.

I am going to sheep mastina.

I have some bad news for you...

[mastina]

VOTE: ArcAngel9
She's back and her posting did not instill in me confidence of her being town.

[mastina]

there's no way in hell Sakura Hana is LHF here, Nancy hard TRs Sakura and while I'm maybe a bit more hesitant I don't think she's nearly as low-impact as you seem to.

Well that's exactly what I mean in what I say there; Sakura Hana has one of the highest post counts in the game but in my opinion one of the lowest impacts with me struggling to get a read there.

Btw while I don't really feel like I can make a readslist right now, I AM thinking Qrow/Raven are town here.

At any rate, i cant explain why your elitell i feel is in bad faith coz [REDACTED]
So anyone would have to do their own research.

I can give a summary for folks too lazy to do this:
ArcAngel9 was absent from

this

game while maintaining presence elsewhere, this is true enough--the elitell as I understand it.

...HOWEVER, I agree the elitell is invalid, because the

inverse

has been true as well: ArcAngel9 has neglected other areas of the site

in favor of THIS game

. For the elitell to be valid, her inactivity here must be specific to here and stay specific to here.

Instead, where AA9 is inactive is changing, where she was inactive here but active elsewhere, and then inactive elsewhere in favor of being active here.

Meaning that the elitell does not apply.

However, I still am suspicious of AA9 because...

The only reason i said that is because i really feel mastina has a strong sense of nailing down scum on day 1. (assuming she rolled town)

I have very good reason to doubt this. Like, VERY good reason to suspect this is bullshit.

[mastina]

Why were you posting elsewhere and not here? Why are you deflecting it on to me? Sorry but your jump on me is seriously scummy because it looks like you’re opportunisticly sheeping Sakura to try to get us miselimed.

I have responded to this already. Asking same question twice, saying same things multiple times doesn't make you right. SCUM!

For the record, the elitell on AA9 is fully 100% invalid to be clear.

However I still think that this response from AA9 to the elitell is more likely to indicate she's scum here.

[mastina]

I don't really think Gamma is scum here
Could vote mom

+1 to both halves of this.

mastina as i know is a pro-town player. So my intent to say that i will sheep her was more to do with the confidence I have in her (based on my perception).

One of my issues here, AA9, is that this is the first game you and I have both been players in for years--and I've some serious doubts that you would still think I, as town, would have a good lock on scum on D1.

You may have observed that trend years ago in my play but as far as I can tell you most certainly have

not

observed that trait in more recent times.

[mastina]

mastina's claim, although townie, can never be disproven.

Fortunately, I don't need to prove my role, I just need to use it.

Bell
Mirio
dwlee99
Mystic Bears (Noraa + Flea the Magician)
Titus
Head One and Head Two (T3 + ManateeGal)

I feel confident enough with mastina's townblock. Her scumreads I'm not sure yet.

I mean you're not the only one.

I do feel decent about the townbloc; the scumreads? Not so much.

It's nice to have you back my own feelings tho when I feel pretty shit about them.

Genuinely, thank you. <3

Dumb take but I feel like genuinely most if not all scum are just lurking this out

Not actually much of a dumb take.

In the hundreds-posters,
{Real Cheeks, Sakura Hana, Dwlee, Mandelbrot, Bell, Qrow and Raven}, we have a very low presence of possible scum.
I don't think anyone in there has a high chance of being scum.

In the high-dozens-posters,
{Mirio, Head One Head Two, Mystic Bears, SirCakez, Romance, maybe-Whemestar; maybe-Elsa Jay}, there's still a fairly low presence of possible scum.

In the lower posters,
{Toogeloo, Momrangal, Titus, AA9, STD, Tomorrow Corporation, tictac}, there's two names I wouldn't yeet due to roleclaims (tictac, Tomorrow Corporation) and two names I wouldn't yeet due to townreading (Titus, Toogeloo), but I'd basically yeet any of the others.
(Momrangal, AA9, STD).

In the three groups I've broken down activity in, I'd go 0-1 in the first, 0-2 in the second, and 1-3 in the third.

Does mom have a lurkscum meta?

More or less, yes. At least more than she doesn't. Momrangal hates drawing scum, and it shows in her investment in a game more often than it doesn't.

[mastina]

I'm sorry, everyone. I gave it some thought and the raid has a lot of benefits I'd overlooked. I've tried to restrain myself but it's simply an offer I can't refuse. Ugh, I'll probably regret this later.

Join Raid

TC could you please answer my previous question @ you?
-Qrow

I'm a pretty emotional person, yeah. I let the tide take me wherever it pleases and I don't complain. If I have a problem with someone, I'm telling them upfront and I'm not mincing words. Same goes for if I like someone though, if I like you, you'll know it.

Hm, alright. Which posts have been Tom/Susie?
-Qrow

Yo, I'm back here, and probably coming up on a prod timer, but can I ask for like

24-48 hours of V/LA

here?

I've got a lot of very important shit going on right now so I'm not able to focus on playing mafia games right now.

[mastina]

Yo, not here right now (will be later tonight, just not right now), but I aint gonna join that raid so if scum wanna make it fail feel free to do so.

I suspect given the raid reward tho that they very much will not.

[mastina]

I'm just posting to make sure mastina sees I'm posting more now that I'm back from vla

Speaking of which.

VOTE: Save the Dragons.

Still think this is a good vote.

[mastina]

Yes she's acting sus

(For the record, think this exchange makes Dwlee and House-hydra quite town even tho they already were.)

WILL NOT ELIMINATE RIGHT NOW:
Titus, Toogeloo*, Romance, Mystic Bears, Head One Head Two, Tomorrow Corporation*, tictac*, Mandelbrot, Dwlee99, Qrow and Raven, Bell, Real Cheeks*

*Comparatively weaker

DON'T WANNA YEET RIGHT NOW:
SirCakez, Sakura Hana

REMAINDER:
ArcAngel9, WhemeStar, Elsa Jay, Save the Dragons


I realize that there's not enough in the remainder pile to fill all the scum slots for this game (circa 5 scum) but *shrug*, is what I can do right now.

I also happen to think STD is just scum here anyway.

[mastina]

I’m thinking Romance may be town from this.

So am I! Is why Romance got promoted to my don't-wanna-eliminate-right-now pile.

I'm not sure why you have me in ur town block. i might be mixing you up with the ten other people that can't read me for their life but i remember you as always having a hella hard time coming around to town reads on me. Why do you think I'm town this game?

I'm fairly sure you do indeed have me mixed up for someone else as after my first one or two games with you, pretty sure I got you locked down hard?

But even if I didn't, Flea's town, so. By proxy, you'd be town anyway.

But also you're town so like. Both heads being town = one of the towniest slots in the game.
The only slots I think really rival you for towniness are Qrow/Raven (also both heads being town), Mandelbrot (also also both heads being town as House and Yume both look town), and Bell (by virtue of being Bell).

Tho Titus, Romance, Dwlee, and maybe Head One Head Two are also up there in towniness as well. (And Real Cheeks is a possible one up there, too.)

[mastina]

... ok 40 pages behind, not 20. wow.

Me when I thought I'd have like 20 pages to read but was dumbfounded to find out I was on 60/100 and thus had 40 to read instead.

(Working on it now obv. If that wasn't apparent enough. )

She has 11 posts. How is that enough in like any world?

By the way, this, but applied to STD and Elsa.

Look at STD's iso.

Look at Elsa Jay's iso.

There's a reason both of them have consistently been in the bottom of my list.

[mastina]

Good luck with your op Martina!

An op(eration) is years away but the appointment was good, this marks day four of my low-initial-dose of T-suppressants and also day one of me committing to my workout routine. (It's pathetically simple; my idea was alternating days of knuckle pushups starting at 5 and crunches starting at 10, increasing both by the week; alternating days of jacknives and crunches starting at 10, increasing by the week. I also want to do walking a mile every day but that will need to wait until I have a way to actually meter how long I am walking for requiring either a treadmill or a fitbit-or-similar. We'll have to see. Butyeah, is a start!)

Just so peeps are aware here, We're having a pretty rough time rn and while we're not on spinny door level of switchy, we are switchy <3 Mental health crashed super hard.

Also a big mood, is part of why I didn't show up yesterday in spite of promising I'd be around later that night.

I'm not really truly critically analyzing things right now but I'm doing the best I can to still find strong town vs. weak town vs. need-more-info (the not-yeeting-now) vs. remainder.

I want to at least get caught up even if I can't do much when caught up.

I'm up to end-of-D1/start-of-D2 so that's promising at least!

[mastina]

[*]

Enterprise:

During the night you may lend a player your airship Enterprise, giving them ability to commute during the next night phase.

MOD: Could Momrangal use this every night?
If so, could her target use the commute and another action the same night?

Just asking 'cuz I want to know if we effectively yeeted a delayed-rolestopper. As in, a very strong protective. (As in, whoever she targeted N1 would be immune to death N2; whoever she targeted N2 would be immune to death N3; etc.)

[mastina]

Okay, at work but 2 things:
That hammer wasn't the best hammer.

You say this, and yet...

VC 1.11

Momrangal (8):

tictac, Sakura Hana, Romance, Head One and Head Two, Dwlee99, Mirio, Mandelbrot, Titus

VOTE: Mom

VOTE: Mom

Eh. Why not. They haven't done anything either.

They are now at E-1 tho so be careful about any extra votes.

Your L-1 was just as bad if not worse and you were the one who cast it, you could have unvoted, and you chose not to, so I blame Toogeloo a lot less for the townflip compared to you.

And by 'blame' I don't so much mean "It's your fault" as I mean "you're pretty scum", in that Toogeloo's hammer I don't see as scum--your L-1 vote AND your insistence on the hammer being bad AFTER the fact in spite of your EGREGIOUSLY bad L-1 vote, on the other hand?

Yup, that's scum.

[mastina]

Inb4 it was actually a town player that interfered with me

I mean, possible, but this at least helps me buy that you're town, which helps.

Should just give 19 names to be safe... oh wait.

I'd do it as top/bottom half of playerlist, honestly. (Also is this game really only 19 players? I thought it was more than that.)

[mastina]

I'm counter claiming if that wasnt obvious.

I believe this. I also believe it was unnecessary since I don't think TC was serious in their own doctor claim.

ArcAngel
Whemestar
SirCakez
Elsa
Save the Dragons
Titus
Tictac
^ My scumpool.

Honestly the only two in there I wouldn't eliminate are Titus (townread there) and tictac (play isn't really that town but looks passably town + Tomorrow Corporation was apparently serious in claiming tictac was town so between passable townness + TC tictac is out of the scum pool for me).

So I would legitimately genuinely eliminate any, preferably most/all, of {ArcAngel9, WhemeStar, SirCakez, Elsa Jay, Save the Dragons}.

I'd be shocked if that group had less than 2 scum in it;
I'd expect it to be 2-4. So like, at least three.

[mastina]

VOTE: SirCakez

I see the guilty.
I believe the guilty.
I also see no reason to join the wagon on the guilty as stating my other suspicions beyond the guilty and backing them up with a vote is better imo.

SirCakez is going to be the elimination today.

No ifs, ands, or buts, about that.

But I don't feel compelled to vote him and not do anything else.

[mastina]

Could do, but first this raid needs to succeed with 0 scum in it, so i cant be roleblocked and scum cant strongman.
Was originally planning on Healing Romance.

For that matter: if any of Elsa Jay, STD, or ArcAngel9 (and to some extent, WhemeStar) are on today's raid:

I'd consider that a scumclaim from them.

Dead serious.

[mastina]

That seems to be in direct contradiction to the wiki.

Speaking from experience, I know:
GIF does not use the wiki.

Or rather, GIF uses what he thinks a role/modifier is, but doesn't stay entirely up to date on the exact mechanics of the role/modifier, and thus, uses what he thinks is the interaction rather than what the interaction per the wiki may be. (For instance, having a Hider that was, by the wiki, a Weak Hider whose hide was more like a commute. He was unaware of the wiki version until it was pointed out to him.)

[mastina]

Elsa shouldn't be in the raid. :/

+1 to this.

I'm voting Elsa Jay tomorrow and literally never unvoting there ever for the rest of the game if Elsa remains on this raid and refuses to leave it.

[mastina]

you really think elsa jay is scum trying to sneak that in

Unironically? Yes--Elsa Jay is the type of scum player to do precisely that.

[mastina]

my scum pool rn
(qrow and raven, elsa, wheme, head one and head two, Romance, Mirio)
and actually save the dragons has been lackluster so they can go in there too

lmao I swear to god that last line was not provoked by save the dragons' last post

StD probtown
-Qrow

I've the opposite read on that.

You DO know that SirCakez has a habit of bussing, right?

Yes, he's tried a lot to actively change his scum meta--bussing included.

But he still has the tendency to distance from scumbuddies, and his STD interaction is precisely the sort of scum distancing SirCakez tends to fall back into whenever he isn't careful enough.

[mastina]

Oh yeah, that reminds me, i did say that someone that SR Mirio was scum because of him being NK'd. Cakez also fits that description, so I guess it wasnt entirely wrong.

For the record, so does AA9.

Just sayin'.

[mastina]

I don't remember Mastina being super caught up on wanting to have the +1 to succeed a future raid so maybe some validity to that? Or suggests that it isn't 1 shot.

I have at least two parts to my role.

One of the parts to that role was an ability that, if I am in a raid, I can guarantee the raid succeeds. It was a one-shot ability.
However, thanks to the nature of the D1 raid, I got a second shot of that.
Meaning that I intend to join every raid from D3 onward, and then just not announce if I am using my guaranteed-success ability to force scum to guess if I am using it or not if they want to sabotage the raid.
I'm not joining the D2 raid because I've zero desire for the strong-willed/armed as it is highly redundant. (My role does not need to be strong-willed/armed.)

I could obviously claim more details to this, I just see no need to as I will be spewed town by play eventually anyway. (And even if not, I have the fallback of the unclaimed aspects of my role which once claimed will make me be conftown anyway.)

[mastina]

to be clear:
i know stuff
and that stuff strongly implies that both tictac and TC are confirmed town.
Also this game may have some direct mod influence ftr
-T3

I believe this.

So basically between role-spewed town, and town-by-being-town, we've got:

HARD TOWN:
Sakura Hana
Romance
Bell
Mystic Bears (Noraa + Flea the Magician)
Mandelbrot (House + Yume)
Head One and Head Two (T3 + ManateeGal)
Qrow and Raven (Gamma Emerald + Nancy Drew 39)
Tomorrow Corporation
tictac

ALMOST HARD TOWN:
Titus
Dwlee99

SOFT TOWN:
RealCheeks (RCEnigma + CheekyTeeky)
Toogeloo

REMAINDER:
Whemestar
ArcAngel9
Save The Dragons
Elsa Jay

CONFSCUM:
SirCakez

I'm back in the game. Holy shit I'm BACK in the game.

[mastina]

Spoiler: mastina_and_me_irl

I understood that reference. <3

Am I seriously gonna be the one player basically bullied out of the raids? Fuck that. Honestly I'll join them all out of spite and town it up so hard you can't get rid of me.

I'm not bullying you out of raids in general--I'm "bullying" you out of a raid

that gives scum a

fucking STRONGMAN

when we have a genuine follow-the-cop going.

And if that is broken with you on the raid?

No amount of pleading, no insane roleclaim, will save you.

I'm turbo-fucking-voting you for the rest of the game.

It's not raids-in-general.
It's THIS

SPECIFIC

raid.

[mastina]

Why would scum have to guess? From the OP, they simply make a decision to fall the raid or not. I don't see any risk involved in their part.

My role of guaranteeing raid success overrides their decision. As in, if they decide to make a raid fail, and I make it succeed, it succeeds.
So if they try to make a raid fail, but I use the second guaranteed-success shot, it will succeed.
If they try to make a raid fail, but I don't use my ability, the raid will fail and bingo we know scum were on the raid.
If they don't try to make a raid fail, but I use my ability, I waste it.
If they don't try to make a raid fail, and I don't use my ability, the raid succeeds without me needing to use my ability.

So they need to guess if I am using my guaranteed-success or not, if they want to make the raid fail.

I see no reason to share if I use my ability or not. I will use my own system (I have a good one, promise) whenever on it.

{Romance, Mandelbrot, Toogeloo, Tictac, Sakura}
{Bell, dwlee, mastina, Qrow and Raven, H1H2, Mystic Bears}
--------‐‐
{whemestar, STD, Elsa, AA9}
{SirCakez, Titus, TC}
Anything below the line can go imo.

Bump Titus up, please.

HARD TOWN:
Sakura Hana
Romance
Bell
Mystic Bears (Noraa + Flea the Magician)
Mandelbrot (House + Yume)
Head One and Head Two (T3 + ManateeGal)
Qrow and Raven (Gamma Emerald + Nancy Drew 39)
Tomorrow Corporation
tictac

ALMOST HARD TOWN:
Titus
Dwlee99

SOFT TOWN:
RealCheeks (RCEnigma + CheekyTeeky)
Toogeloo

REMAINDER:
Whemestar
ArcAngel9
Save The Dragons
Elsa Jay

CONFSCUM:
SirCakez

I'm back in the game. Holy shit I'm BACK in the game.

Looks like we're on the same page!

[mastina]

Final Raid Group

1. Dwlee99
   
2. RealCheeks
   
3. Bell
   
4. Elsa Jay
   
   
5. SirCakez
   
   
6. Sakura Hana
   
7. Romance
   
8. tictac
   
9. Tomorrow Corporation

The raid is a

failure!

Gee I wonder why the raid could have POSSIBLY failed.

VOTE: Elsa Jay
To be clear.

VOTE: Elsa Jay

Also,
VOTE: Join Raid

[mastina]

Btw forgot to mention this but I no longer think STD is scum and buy that this is his towngame.

VOTE: TC

Uhhh...why are you voting the slot that the nightkill-who-was-Janitored was clearing as town? Like...

Head One and Head Two was eliminated Night 2.

TC is town trust me

TC and tictac are both ~almost~ mech conftown FMPOV.

to be clear:
i know stuff
and that stuff strongly implies that both tictac and TC are confirmed town.

As in my-role-can-confirm-multiple-townies once someone does something outside of the game.

My role implies both tictac and Tc are town but not 100%. If something happens to someone outside of the game then these players can be 100% confirmed town.

Are y'all gonna ignore the fact that

Head One Head Two was probably janitored

to prevent TC from being conftown'd from their flip

?!?

Because it should be stupidly simple to...yaknow. Trust the nightkilled janitored player's roleclaim and NOT vote out who they said was conftown and instead vote for the player who has basically hard-scumclaimed (Elsa Jay).

[mastina]

I want either tictac or TC today. I'm not voting anyone else in the raid list.
- House

House to be blunt: you're being mega-dumb.
ASIDE FROM THE FACT THAT THE NIGHTKILLED PLAYER LITERALLY WAS HARD-VOUCHING FOR TC AND TICTAC BEING TOWN, we KNOW that there's a group with AT LEAST ONE GUARANTEED UNFLIPPED SCUM.

Final Raid Group

1. Dwlee99
   
2. RealCheeks
   
3. Bell
   
   
4. Elsa Jay
   
5. Sakura Hana
   
   
6. Romance
   
   
7. tictac
   
   
8. Tomorrow Corporation

The raid is a

failure!

We know that Sakura Hana and Romance are town by role, but even if we didn't, their play by play is town.

We know Bell is town by his play. He's admittedly not cleared by role, but play is strong clear.

That, in of itself, means we have AT LEAST ONE SCUM GUARANTEED in {Dwlee99, RealCheeks, Elsa Jay,

tictac, Tomorrow Corporation}.

And in that group?

The nightkilled player was literally hard-vouching for tictac and TC being town.

And,

The janitor was probably used to prevent tictac and Tomorrow Corporation from being conftown upon the H1H2 flip

.
Meaning that realistically, the elimination pool today should be PRECISELY:

{Dwlee99, RealCheeks, Elsa Jay}, as that pool contains one GUARANTEED scum.

And one of the players in there (hint; it's Elsa) was being a blatant scumfuck yesterday, while the other two both look town enough.

So there's ZERO realm in which today's elimination SHOULD NOT be Elsa Jay.

[mastina]

What in the world was that nk about lol.

Hmm, I wonder.

VOTE: TC

VOTE: TC

VOTE: Tomorrow Corporation

My role implies both tictac and Tc are town but not 100%. If something happens to someone outside of the game then these players can be 100% confirmed town.

Head One and Head Two was eliminated Night 2.

Could it perhaps be, ohhhh, I dunno...

...That scum fucking nightkilled and janitored H1H2 to prevent TC from becoming conftown so people would be dumb enough to wagon TC today instead of the actual blatant scum???

[mastina]

I kinda thought cakes was bussing Elsa tbh.

Pretty much yeah.

I kinda thought cakes was bussing Elsa tbh.

Elsa, Q/R, and Wheme all got pushed by Cakez to varying amounts. If any of these three is scum, it would still be foolish of them to lose town cred and cause a raid failure.

Don't give me that "too scum to be scum" shit.

Sometimes, blatant scum will pull the blatant scum move. Because they know they are blatant scum and have nothing to lose by pulling it.

Elsa Jay was already a prime suspect. Why the fuck would Elsa NOT fail the raid as scum?

In contrast, why the fuck would not-Elsa scum fail the raid? If we eliminate Elsa today (which we should) and if Elsa doesn't flip scum, that blows their cover. Is revealing that they're scum really worth a mislim on a player who is likely to eat the elimination even if they let the raid succeed? Fuck no it isn't.

The ONLY player with an incentive to make the raid fail is Elsa Jay.

Today on D3 we were likely going to eliminate Elsa regardless of yesterday's raid succeeding or failing.
If we eliminate Elsa and yesterday's raid succeeded, the names on the raid would be pseudocleared.
If we eliminate Elsa and Elsa flips scum, yesterday's raid failing makes sense.
If we eliminate Elsa and Elsa flips town, then yesterday scum making the raid fail is literally gamethrowing from them because it exposes that there is scum in a group we otherwise would have reason to believe was scum-free. (See above.)

QED, the ONLY explanation for the raid failing is Elsa is scum.

[mastina]

Elsa Jay was already a prime suspect

(without the raid fail taken into account).

Why the fuck would Elsa NOT fail the raid as scum?

In contrast,

why the fuck would not-Elsa scum fail the raid?

If we eliminate Elsa today (which we should) and

if Elsa doesn't flip scum,

that blows their cover

. Is revealing that they're scum really worth a mislim on a player who is likely to eat the elimination even if they let the raid succeed? Fuck no it isn't.

The ONLY player with an incentive to make the raid fail is Elsa Jay.

Today

on D3 we were likely going to eliminate Elsa regardless of yesterday's raid succeeding or failing.

If we eliminate Elsa and yesterday's raid succeeded,

the names on the raid would be pseudocleared

.
If we eliminate Elsa and Elsa flips scum, yesterday's raid failing makes sense.
If we eliminate Elsa and Elsa flips town, then yesterday scum making the raid fail is literally gamethrowing from them because it exposes that there is scum in a group we otherwise would have reason to believe was scum-free. (See above.)

QED, the ONLY explanation for the raid failing is Elsa is scum.

Gonna quote this again with added clarity/emphasis because I reiterate this.

Scum in the raid who is NOT Elsa Jay is gamethrowing because we were likely going to yeet Elsa Jay anyway. And then what happens when Elsa Jay would flip town? The scum who had minimal-to-zero focus on them prior to the raid failing and an Elsa flip now has a laser focus on them because we know the pool has a scum within.

Scum in the raid who is NOT Elsa Jay had every reason to let the raid succeed--we can yeet Elsa Jay without the raid failing, and then what happens when Elsa Jay would flip town? Nothing, the scum if anything on the raid would be considered town.

But scum being Elsa Jay has the motive to do so because Elsa Jay knows that Elsa's going to, with a high probability, be yeeted. If you're going to be yeeted anyway, you've nothing to lose by making the raid fail.

[mastina]

I’m thinking scum exist on that raid that isn’t Elsa, but Elsa is also scum, and the scum agenda was for him to be flipped and for the town at large to tune out the rest of the raid.

This is, admittedly, possible, but the result is STILL that Elsa Jay is the correct elimination today.

The THEORETICAL possibilities are:
-The raid was all town. (Disproven by the raid failing.)
-The raid had at least one scum on it, and it was not Elsa Jay. They decide not to draw attention to themselves by not making the raid failed. (Disproven by the raid failing.)
--The raid had multiple scum on it. One was Elsa Jay. They decide not to draw attention to themselves by not making the raid failed. (Disproven by the raid failing.)
-The raid had at least one scum on it, and it was not Elsa Jay. In spite of the fact that Elsa Jay is likely an elimination, they decided to make the raid fail despite how that will narrow down who could be scum meaning they basically outted themselves. (This is possible, but violates occam's razor.)
-The raid had multiple scum on it. One was Elsa Jay. They decide Elsa Jay will take all of the heat from the raid failing and bank on the scum on the raid that's not-Elsa being pseudo-conftown.
-The raid had one scum on it, and it was Elsa Jay. Elsa failed the raid to deny town the advantages and get scum closer to their boons, knowing Elsa would go down anyway regardless of raid success/failure.

There's precisely one possible scenario where Elsa Jay is not scum and it requires the scum to be frankly moronic and make the stupidest play possible for them to make, because they don't need it to frame Elsa and they would become prime suspect(s) after an Elsa townflip with the raid having failed.

So in all other scenarios, ones which are comparatively simpler and smarter, Elsa Jay is just scum.

[mastina]

HARD TOWN:
Sakura Hana
Romance
Bell
Mystic Bears (Noraa + Flea the Magician)
Mandelbrot (House + Yume)
Qrow and Raven (Gamma Emerald + Nancy Drew 39)
Tomorrow Corporation
tictac

ALMOST HARD TOWN:
Titus
Dwlee99

SOFT TOWN:
RealCheeks (RCEnigma + CheekyTeeky)
Toogeloo

Save The Dragons

REMAINDER:
Whemestar
ArcAngel9

BASICALLY CONFSCUM:
Elsa Jay

Think this is where I'm at. (I mayyyy have scum in the soft-town category but that's a revise-as-needed thing.)

[mastina]

Elsa Jay was already a prime suspect

(without the raid fail taken into account).

Why the fuck would Elsa NOT fail the raid as scum?

In contrast,

why the fuck would not-Elsa scum fail the raid?

If we eliminate Elsa today (which we should) and

if Elsa doesn't flip scum,

that blows their cover

. Is revealing that they're scum really worth a mislim on a player who is likely to eat the elimination even if they let the raid succeed? Fuck no it isn't.

The ONLY player with an incentive to make the raid fail is Elsa Jay.

Today

on D3 we were likely going to eliminate Elsa regardless of yesterday's raid succeeding or failing.

If we eliminate Elsa and yesterday's raid succeeded,

the names on the raid would be pseudocleared

.
If we eliminate Elsa and Elsa flips scum, yesterday's raid failing makes sense.
If we eliminate Elsa and Elsa flips town, then yesterday scum making the raid fail is literally gamethrowing from them because it exposes that there is scum in a group we otherwise would have reason to believe was scum-free. (See above.)

QED, the ONLY explanation for the raid failing is Elsa is scum.

Gonna quote this again with added clarity/emphasis because I reiterate this.

Scum in the raid who is NOT Elsa Jay is gamethrowing because we were likely going to yeet Elsa Jay anyway. And then what happens when Elsa Jay would flip town? The scum who had minimal-to-zero focus on them prior to the raid failing and an Elsa flip now has a laser focus on them because we know the pool has a scum within.

Scum in the raid who is NOT Elsa Jay had every reason to let the raid succeed--we can yeet Elsa Jay without the raid failing, and then what happens when Elsa Jay would flip town? Nothing, the scum if anything on the raid would be considered town.

But scum being Elsa Jay has the motive to do so because Elsa Jay knows that Elsa's going to, with a high probability, be yeeted. If you're going to be yeeted anyway, you've nothing to lose by making the raid fail.

Also requoting this, too, for new page.

[mastina]

I've debated whether I should claim this or not but I figure I should explain WHY I am very much opposed to a TC elimination today:

My role has a method which the scum cannot block, of bypassing the janitor they did on H1H2.

The scum cannot block or otherwise prevent my method of bypassing the janitor (killing me won't stop me from bypassing the janitor and due to the nature of this bypass it is immune to roleblocking), but it requires until the end of N2 in order to function.

In other words.

I very very very strongly do not want y'all to eliminate a slot that I may be able to conftown overnight.

By the start of D3, we will have a much better idea on TC and tictac thanks to my role bypassing the scum's obfuscation.

So fuck the soft guilty--give me one damn night and we might have two hard innocents that the scum can do nothing about.

[mastina]

I've debated whether I should claim this or not but I figure I should explain WHY I am very much opposed to a TC elimination today:

My role has a method which the scum cannot block, of bypassing the janitor they did on H1H2.

The scum cannot block or otherwise prevent my method of bypassing the janitor (killing me won't stop me from bypassing the janitor and due to the nature of this bypass it is immune to roleblocking), but it requires until the end of N2 in order to function.

In other words.

I very very very strongly do not want y'all to eliminate a slot that I may be able to conftown overnight.

By the start of D3, we will have a much better idea on TC and tictac thanks to my role bypassing the scum's obfuscation.

So fuck the soft guilty--give me one damn night and we might have two hard innocents that the scum can do nothing about.

Also as part of this:

protectives, do NOT protect me!

I don't need to be alive for this--in fact, being protected is actively detrimental given the method by which I can bypass the janitor. Y'all have better folks to try and protect.

[mastina]

Mastina I think you're likely townbearding pushing the lim away from TC. I think h1h2 misunderstood something because they were claiming OOGI and I think that the only reason they thought TC was conftown was this misunderstood OOGI

And if they had a genuine innocent and then tomorrow it's revealed you fuckers eliminated conftown?

What then?

You. can. wait. one. day.

(Also whoops, I meant by the start of D4 and by the end of N3, mistakenly thought today was D2 for some reason but I think the intention here is clear.)

If the information doesn't reveal TC as town, then I will happily support and even actively push for TC's elimination on D4.

But if the information DOES reveal TC as town, then the soft guilty today isn't an actual guilty and you're trying to eliminate conftown.

So I repeat.

You. can. wait. one. day.

Scum aren't going to win overnight.

[mastina]

Nah we should eliminate scum

Yeah and eliminating a slot that is potentially the opposite of confscum (conftown) is doing the opposite of eliminating scum.

I think I want Mastina to fullclaim

So that you'll get to know the exact method by which I bypass the janitor rather than being forced to guess?

No thanks, I'll pass.

Is there any reason mastina's role cannot be used against Elsa?

Yes, a really obvious reason. My role can bypass a janitor and reveal the role Head One Head Two held.

This is, explicitly, something which can only be done on the player that is dead and janitored.

My role is not an investigative. It is a role that can bypass the janitor. It just so happens that the scum used the janitor on a slot that was claiming innocents on TC and tictac. So by using my janitor-bypass role, we get the info on TC/tictac which scum went out of their way to attempt to hide.

For a supposed doc, them going nowhere is odd.

Tomorrow Corporation's doctor claim was pretty damn obviously not a real one. I said as much yesterday. I literally told y'all that Tomorrow Corporation was not realclaiming doctor but was probably still town anyway. That result is just confirmation of what we already knew. This "soft guilty" is a farce; there's no guilty to be had.

If anything, that soft guilty is actually a hard inno in of itself--

Do you think there is any scum role that would not act AT ALL last night?

Because we know at least two scum roles did.
We know a scum roleblocked acted--

Tomorrow Corporation cannot be the scum roleblocker.

(This in of itself means we should not eliminate TC! Because we want to get rid of the scum roleblocker.)
We know a scum janitored Head 1 Head 2--

Tomorrow Corporation cannot be the scum janitor.

So for TC to be scum, TC would need to be scum that did not act last night when we know at least half of the remaining scum (assuming 5 starting, we know 2/4 acted last night) did in fact act last night.

[mastina]

If anything, that soft guilty is actually a hard inno in of itself--

Do you think there is any scum role that would not act AT ALL last night?

Because we know at least two scum roles did.
We know a scum roleblocked acted--

Tomorrow Corporation cannot be the scum roleblocker.

(This in of itself means we should not eliminate TC! Because we want to get rid of the scum roleblocker.)
We know a scum janitored Head 1 Head 2--

Tomorrow Corporation cannot be the scum janitor.

So for TC to be scum, TC would need to be scum that did not act last night when we know at least half of the remaining scum (assuming 5 starting, we know 2/4 acted last night) did in fact act last night.

Gonna requote this part with emphasis because y'all should realize this.

[mastina]

If TC is a roleblocker

Which we know not to be the case because Titus tracked TC to nowhere.

And fuck the idea of suggesting ninja-roleblocker. That occam's razor violation will NOT stand. You KNOW that logically, TC being tracked to nowhere, and there being a roleblock last night, means TC is NOT the roleblocker.

Ergo, do not eliminate TC.

Eliminate someone else from the pool of guaranteed scum, {Dwlee, RealCheeks, Bell, Elsa Jay, tictac}.

tictac is tied to TC, so not there.
Bell is clearly town by play, so not there.

Leaving {Dwlee, RealCheeks, Elsa Jay}.

And you know your alignment so you should know that to try and eliminate the scum roleblocker, you should be voting in {RealCheeks, Elsa Jay}.

But really, actually just voting Elsa Jay.

[mastina]

TC can be ninja something.

That's a huge violation of occam's razor and you know it.

Ninjas are a thing.

Ninja-Janitors are NOT a thing.
Ninja-Roleblockers are NOT a thing.

You're warping the evidence to fit the read rather than basing a read off of the evidence.

The evidence against TC is that TC, obviously facetiously, claimed doctor and got CC'd but went nowhere--when the doctor claim was obviously facetious in the first place, that is not evidence at all.

The evidence in favor of TC being town is that

the janitored slot

said they were conftown, got

janitored

to hide that, and that TC went nowhere when we know that a roleblocker and a janitor both scum acted last night meaning TC is neither of those.

[mastina]

I'm just pretty sure that H1H2 misunderstood their role because claiming OOGI influence and Alisae being in the game doesn't make sense to me

And what about possibly-misunderstanding their role means that their claimed innocents cannot be innocent?

Because the claimed innocents are separate from the 'misunderstanding' you are pushing as being proof to discard H1H2's innocents on tictac/TC.

Sure, it's possible Head One Head Two were not understanding their role entirely--but the mechanic that they expressed confusion about which you are saying they misunderstood, is entirely separate from their claimed info of tictac/TC being conftown.

[mastina]

If TC is scum in singleball, my mastina read plummets.

And if TC is conftown you end up eliminating today

I WILL NEVER LET YOU FUCKING FORGET

.

[mastina]

I've noticed... mastina thus far has claimed absolutely nothing that does not come intent with the power of a red role pm.

I can be hardcleared if I fullclaim--I've deliberately not done so as doing so would only be pro-scum, but I explicitly am a role that CANNOT be scum and is PROVABLY a role which cannot be scum and is, explicitly, a role that can conftown me.

I started the game not realizing I was one of the strongest town roles in the game, but after I confirmed the mechanics with the mod I realized I legitimately AM one of the strongest town roles in the game. It just isn't beneficial for me to fullclaim and explain why. (Well, it is beneficial--to the scum. Which is precisely why I have not done so.)

Why would a one shot raid successor be able to clear anyone? Why would this check be unstoppable by any means? Why couldn't this be used on Elsa?

I have always been explicitly clear that there were multiple parts to my role, and that my role was NOT just 1x raid successor.
The unclaimed part of the role is a method to bypass a janitor.
This bypass is unstoppable because of what the bypass is; scum cannot prevent it.
But it is something that can only be used on a janitored player.
Meaning the only way it'd be usable on Elsa Jay is if Elsa Jay were janitored.
The use of it on Head One Head Two will reveal H1H2's role, which bypasses scum having janitored them.
Given as how H1H2 had claimed a role that clears tictac and TC, if the reveal of H1H2's role reveals this information to be true...then tictac and Tomorrow Corporation get hardcleared.

Romance, how does my result make any sense if TC is town and single ball is here?

Your result makes sense by simple virtue of TC being town, in a game where every scum player likely has a role. (The only scum roles that would not act are a goon or a scum role that is entirely passive, but both of those are less likely overall.)

Elsa is being so egregious today like “we got TC we got this!” and was like oh silly Mastina pushing me :/ and then Wheme jumped on like Yeah Mastina Claim Your Role!

And no one finds this weird?

Btw this is in fact a good point.

[mastina]

...your result makes sense because you tracked a VT going nowhere.
If you think the entire scumteam goes in claiming TC hardtown full cleared in this environment, just no.

^Romance is literally the slot who got us our first elimination on scum and y'all are ignoring her in favor of pushing explicit moonlogic that violates occam's razor.

That should really fucking say something to y'all.

[mastina]

If all of you are taking TC’s posting as anything other than lighthearted and joking there really is no hope.

^

Why the fuck does TC as scum change claim and say fucking inane nonsense? Why? What about TC’s posting makes any of you think that THEY WANTED TO BE BELIEVED.

^

BECAUSE I AM TRYING TO KILL SCUM AND I DO NOT WANT TO ELIM TOWN. LIKE MY WINCON SAYS.

^
And eliminating a slot that is possibly conftown who has a tracker result indicating that they should be far more likely to be town...

...Instead of eliminating within the pool of {Dwlee, RealCheeks, Elsa Jay} that is guaranteed to have scum in it?

Is doing the opposite of eliminating scum.

[mastina]

THEY DID NOT DRAW IT OUT INTENTIONALLY IMO. SAKURA CLAIMED PRE-EMPTIVELY. I SAID AS MUCH WHEN IT HAPPENED.

This, too.

Like holy shit I know mafia is serious but please just go read TC’s iso from the perspective of someone memeing around and having fun, like. What’s the scum agenda? To die? Why not kill the doc claim you baited out..????

Also this.

Why do you know TC is town then?

Well given that there's 5 scum to (number of players - 5, too lazy to math) town, and that statistically speaking a player is more likely to be town than scum, the burden of proof is on the accuser, not the accused, and the question isn't why TC is town, but why TC would be scum.

But to humor you.

For why TC is town. Oh, I dunno. Maybe...like...

Head One and Head Two was eliminated Night 2.

TC is town trust me

TC and tictac are both ~almost~ mech conftown FMPOV.

to be clear:
i know stuff
and that stuff strongly implies that both tictac and TC are confirmed town.

As in my-role-can-confirm-multiple-townies once someone does something outside of the game.

My role implies both tictac and Tc are town but not 100%. If something happens to someone outside of the game then these players can be 100% confirmed town.

Are y'all gonna ignore the fact that

Head One Head Two was probably janitored

to prevent TC from being conftown'd from their flip

?!?

Because it should be stupidly simple to...yaknow. Trust the nightkilled janitored player's roleclaim and NOT vote out who they said was conftown and instead vote for the player who has basically hard-scumclaimed (Elsa Jay).

Plus that what Romance is saying is describing innately town behaviors that are indicative of the slot not being scum.

[mastina]

But there are consequences to joke claiming a doc. As seen by a counter claim.

You do not policy-eliminate a slot that has reason to be conftown, when you have every reason to instead be hunting for scum roles that are proven to be in the game which the slot that has reason to be conftown is provably not a holder of.

Why isn't Elsa the easy miselimination?

Final Raid Group

1. Dwlee99
   
2. RealCheeks
   
3. Bell
   
4. Elsa Jay
   
   
5. SirCakez
   
   
6. Sakura Hana
   
7. Romance
   
8. tictac
   
9. Tomorrow Corporation

The raid is a

failure!

Gee I wonder why the raid could have POSSIBLY failed.

ASIDE FROM THE FACT THAT THE NIGHTKILLED PLAYER LITERALLY WAS HARD-VOUCHING FOR TC AND TICTAC BEING TOWN, we KNOW that there's a group with AT LEAST ONE GUARANTEED UNFLIPPED SCUM.

Final Raid Group

1. Dwlee99
   
2. RealCheeks
   
3. Bell
   
   
4. Elsa Jay
   
5. Sakura Hana
   
   
6. Romance
   
   
7. tictac
   
   
8. Tomorrow Corporation

The raid is a

failure!

We know that Sakura Hana and Romance are town by role, but even if we didn't, their play by play is town.

We know Bell is town by his play. He's admittedly not cleared by role, but play is strong clear.

That, in of itself, means we have AT LEAST ONE SCUM GUARANTEED in {Dwlee99, RealCheeks, Elsa Jay, tictac, Tomorrow Corporation}.

And in that group?The nightkilled player was literally hard-vouching for tictac and TC being town. And, The janitor was probably used to prevent tictac and Tomorrow Corporation from being conftown upon the H1H2 flip.
Meaning that realistically, the elimination pool today should be PRECISELY:

{Dwlee99, RealCheeks, Elsa Jay}, as that pool contains one GUARANTEED scum.

And one of the players in there (hint; it's Elsa) was being a blatant scumfuck yesterday, while the other two both look town enough.

So there's ZERO realm in which today's elimination SHOULD NOT be Elsa Jay.

Don't give me that "too scum to be scum" shit.

Sometimes, blatant scum will pull the blatant scum move. Because they know they are blatant scum and have nothing to lose by pulling it.

Elsa Jay was already a prime suspect

(without the raid fail taken into account).

Why the fuck would Elsa NOT fail the raid as scum?

In contrast,

why the fuck would not-Elsa scum fail the raid?

If we eliminate Elsa today (which we should) and

if Elsa doesn't flip scum,

that blows their cover

. Is revealing that they're scum really worth a mislim on a player who is likely to eat the elimination even if they let the raid succeed? Fuck no it isn't.

The ONLY player with an incentive to make the raid fail is Elsa Jay.

Today

on D3 we were likely going to eliminate Elsa regardless of yesterday's raid succeeding or failing.

If we eliminate Elsa and yesterday's raid succeeded,

the names on the raid would be pseudocleared

.
If we eliminate Elsa and Elsa flips scum, yesterday's raid failing makes sense.
If we eliminate Elsa and Elsa flips town, then yesterday scum making the raid fail is literally gamethrowing from them because it exposes that there is scum in a group we otherwise would have reason to believe was scum-free. (See above.)

QED, the ONLY explanation for the raid failing is Elsa is scum.

Gonna quote this again with added clarity/emphasis because I reiterate this.

Scum in the raid who is NOT Elsa Jay is gamethrowing because we were likely going to yeet Elsa Jay anyway. And then what happens when Elsa Jay would flip town? The scum who had minimal-to-zero focus on them prior to the raid failing and an Elsa flip now has a laser focus on them because we know the pool has a scum within.

Scum in the raid who is NOT Elsa Jay had every reason to let the raid succeed--we can yeet Elsa Jay without the raid failing, and then what happens when Elsa Jay would flip town? Nothing, the scum if anything on the raid would be considered town.

But scum being Elsa Jay has the motive to do so because Elsa Jay knows that Elsa's going to, with a high probability, be yeeted. If you're going to be yeeted anyway, you've nothing to lose by making the raid fail.

I’m thinking scum exist on that raid that isn’t Elsa, but Elsa is also scum, and the scum agenda was for him to be flipped and for the town at large to tune out the rest of the raid.

This is, admittedly, possible, but the result is STILL that Elsa Jay is the correct elimination today.

The THEORETICAL possibilities are:
-The raid was all town. (Disproven by the raid failing.)
-The raid had at least one scum on it, and it was not Elsa Jay. They decide not to draw attention to themselves by not making the raid failed. (Disproven by the raid failing.)
--The raid had multiple scum on it. One was Elsa Jay. They decide not to draw attention to themselves by not making the raid failed. (Disproven by the raid failing.)
-The raid had at least one scum on it, and it was not Elsa Jay. In spite of the fact that Elsa Jay is likely an elimination, they decided to make the raid fail despite how that will narrow down who could be scum meaning they basically outted themselves. (This is possible, but violates occam's razor.)
-The raid had multiple scum on it. One was Elsa Jay. They decide Elsa Jay will take all of the heat from the raid failing and bank on the scum on the raid that's not-Elsa being pseudo-conftown.
-The raid had one scum on it, and it was Elsa Jay. Elsa failed the raid to deny town the advantages and get scum closer to their boons, knowing Elsa would go down anyway regardless of raid success/failure.

There's precisely one possible scenario where Elsa Jay is not scum and it requires the scum to be frankly moronic and make the stupidest play possible for them to make, because they don't need it to frame Elsa and they would become prime suspect(s) after an Elsa townflip with the raid having failed.

So in all other scenarios, ones which are comparatively simpler and smarter, Elsa Jay is just scum.

It's almost like I've been laying out why Elsa Jay is scum here all day long and why Elsa Jay is NOT mislim-bait.

[mastina]

Man remember that one game where town fake claimed masons with scum and then proceeded to get janitored?
Imagine if someone claims mech clear with 2 players and then gets Janitored.

Fortunately my role bypasses the janitor so this concern of yours can be addressed by literally waiting one day phase!

By revealing the janitored role, we'll have the answers we're after.

And since scum can't stop me from doing this...

T3 was probably informed a certain flavor was town but thought it was a player

OR, T3 was informed that two slots would become conftown if a certain flavor-role did a certain action and thought it was a player. (Or something along these lines.)

So why is TC town again?

Was tracked as visiting nobody when we know scum have both a roleblocker (would have visited Romance) and a Janitor (would have visited H1H2), and the janitored player of H1H2 insisted that TC could be conftown, and was janitored after having made this claim.

And given that my role can bypass the janitor, we can have a much better idea on this iffy-conftown status.

That, aside from how Romance's characterization of Tomorrow Corporation's play being town is spot-on.

[mastina]

I am less interested in Elsa Jay today, and more interested in finding potential scum already in the raid.
The last thing we want is another fail, specially on a raid effect that sounds so town sided.

Fortunately, as long as I submit it before day's end (I've not submitted it yet because I wanted to see a votecount to see the raid comp since if the raid comp was all town that'd be a waste and if it was assumed-all-town but then it failed that info would be more valuable to me than the success, but obviously if the raid comp isn't all town then fuck yes I'm going to use the second success), I can make the raid be guaranteed to succeed.

After I've seen the composition of the raid I'll make a judgement call there. (We've not had a votecount in a while which means I've not seen the raid comp in a while.)

Actually
VOTE: STD

As one of the bigger proponents of STD being scum yesterday I'm not exactly in favor of this anymore.

Cheeks is a fairly acceptable vote. It’s between Cheeks/Elsa for me today.

I'd compromise on RealCheeks just by virtue of how pro-scum they've been this dayphase but I really want the worst offender and actual basically guaranteed scum in the form of Elsa, first/most.

[mastina]

Adding to her claim diminishes her read for me

I've added nothing to my claim.

I HAVE a 1X ABILITY TO GUARANTEE A RAID SUCCEEDS

I have this as an ability but I did not say that was my only ability.

I will say that's not my only power, but obviously I see no reason to fullclaim right out of the gate D1.

Here I explicitly said that my raid-success was not my only power, that I had more than that in my role.

(In my defense I thought my role was probably one of the weakest in the game. I, uhhh...mayyy have misjudged my role's strength since it seems I

might

be one of the strongest roles in the game...... )

Here I said that my power was one I thought was weak but realized later was actually ridiculously strong.

Being able to completely bypass a scum janitor with my role, with them unable to roleblock me or stop this from happening by nightkilling me, certainly counts as something that seems weak initially but is actually ridiculously strong, no?

I kinda don't believe you're telling the whole story about your role Mastina but if it does work that way then absolutely use it.

Oh meant to include this. I'm telling the full truth; I have a one-shot ability that guarantees a raid succeeds. I've not paraphrased the ability's nature and

I have at least one additional power outside of my 1x-raid-succeed

, but I am not leaving anything out like conditions or whatnot. It's one-shot, it makes the raid succeed, I confirmed with the mod that the raid bonus means making this raid succeed gives me a second use of the ability, I could give the exact wording (well, close as can be without getting modkilled obv) but I don't feel the need to, because the important thing was to claim the mechanic since it felt like a role I had no reason to not reveal and use.

Here I reiterated that.

My claim is exactly the same as it always has been.
I have a, initially one-shot, ability to guarantee a raid succeeds as long as I am a member of the raid. Thanks to the nature of the D1 raid, I got a second shot of that.
I have at least one other ability--I have revealed that this ability allows me to bypass the janitor, and that scum cannot roleblock me and that nightkilling me will not stop the bypass of the janitor.

I have since stated that my fullclaim would elevate me to conftown status (because my role

cannot

be a scum role), but that is precisely why I am not revealing the details of my role.

But my claim has never had things added to it. It has had additional details revealed, but those details were always there.

[mastina]

Right? It's like she's angling to have almost as much sway over the events of the game as the moderator.

Well, from a

certain

point of view...I do.

But obviously I've no reason to explain that.
(It's a technicality, more trivia than anything else.)

[mastina]

But I do think mastina should weigh in on if the recovery even affects TC as much as she previously thought it would, or if we are just doing it to know H1/H2 at this point.

Fucked if I know--that relies on H1/H2. My role explicitly bypasses the janitor done on H1H2 but I won't know how/if it affects TC until after I've actually bypassed the janitor. I don't magically have info that you don't have about H1H2; I know exactly as much as you do:

They claimed they had potential innocents on TC and tictac;
They were nightkilled;
They were janitored.

We won't have the extra info until the end of N3/start of D4.

if you're town you want me on the raid

I actually buy this.

[mastina]

Queue:

1. Sakura Hana
   
2. Save The Dragons
   
3. Dwlee99
   
4. Romance
   
5. Mandelbrot
   
6. Toogeloo
   
7. Titus
   
8. Mystic Bears

Backup

1. mastina
   
2. Qrow and Raven
   
3. tictac

[/area]

For the record--the only slot I really want to leave the raid is Dwlee.
Toogeloo I'm not sure is town so having Qrow/Raven in instead of Toog+Dwlee would be better imo, but the raid comp is mostly town.
Sakura's town; Romance is town; Titus's tracker claim is almost certainly town; I buy STD as town; I read both Mandelbrot and Mystic Bears as town; etc.

[mastina]

@mastina, why is Bell obviously town to you when he's pushing a TC elimination?

Not everyone pushing a TC elimination is going to be scum--in fact, very few of the names doing so could/would be.

Scum janitoring H1H2 allows town to push TC on their own. After all, even IF all four scum DID pile onto TC (they wouldn't), they'd still need town to back them up. They'd need town votes to back their own votes in order to get a TC elimination.

Meaning, voting TC is not a scumclaim.
It's being pro-scum.
It's doing what scum want the town to do.
It's following the scum's plan.

But voting TC is not in of itself indicative of a player being town or scum.

It's the way they do so which can shed light on their alignment.

The way Bell has done so is a way I would say is nai-at-worst but lines up loosely with what I would think Bell would do as town. It's a wrong move, but not a scum move.

@mastina scumLLD janitored to hide the fact they were not a mason with town. So all be janitored tells us is scum decided that result not be known.

Fortunately, we just so happen to have a player that claims they can bypass the scum's janitor and thus reveal the truth about H1H2! And all it requires is to wait until the end of N3/start of D4, with you NOT eliminating TC today.

mastina, i dont think people are saying TC is a ninja roleblocker or a ninja janitor, but just... a ninja, their NK wouldnt be seen anyway.

Well we know there was only one nightkill last night. We know Head One Head Two was janitored. Most scum janitor roles require that the janitor be the one performing the kill. We know TC did not visit anyone last night.

Ergo, TC is not a ninja who performed the nightkill because the person performing the nightkill was almost assuredly the scum janitor.
Unless you propose ninja-janitor (again, this is explicitly a violation of occam's razor) or a ninja-roleblocker (even more of one, because of the rb-trumping-doc you bring up).

[mastina]

mastina, you're gonna auto success this raid right?

Probably, especially if Dwlee's on it (as I don't trust Dwlee anymore). But it's best for me to not say.

Who said there's 5 scum?

Usual game balance for a game of this size. Also to some extent, trusting Toogeloo's flavor knowledge of there apparently being precisely 5 characters that fit as scum, no more no less. (This is from memory, may be misremembering Toog talking about that but I seem to recall Toog mentioning there's 5 likely scum flavors.)

There could always be less (incredibly unlikely) or more (possible, if scum are weak and town is overall strong), but usual game balance for a game of this size is 5 scum.

[mastina]

Are you obiwan kenobi Mastina?

If this is attempting to reference a character, I sadly have zero flavor knowledge of FFXIV so I wouldn't be able to know who this is meant to be attempting to reference, sorry.

Not clear what Cheeks is doing that is anti-town rn?

The insistence on pushing for a TC elimination / resisting the Elsa Jay elimination was what I was referring to, but both of those qualities have since gone away so I'd prefer not to eliminate RealCheeks here.

[mastina]

Yeah gonna need some elaboration here when I've supported you today and made room for you on the raid. Geez some people.

Apparently my memory is faulty as I could've sworn you were pushing TC hard and defending Elsa but actually doing an iso of your play today I'm not finding it.

So, full retraction on supporting RealCheeks as an elimination.

Sorry for the mistake on my memory.

[mastina]

Or Star Wars, apparently.

I know who Obi Wan Kenobi is, at every stage of his life in fact. (Even bits not shown in the movies.)

If Bell was attempting to breadcrumb a FFIV character by invoking Obi Wan Kenobi, then that is where I am sadly inept as I wouldn't know who would be the character being compared to Obi Wan Kenobi, even if I happened to be the character Bell was attempting to reference.

[mastina]

"If your target dies during the night their alignment and role will not be revealed"

Precisely--"your target".
Janitors need to visit in order to janitor their target.
That usually means they need to be the one performing the nightkill, i.e., "if you perform the nightkill, you may janitor it", but even if they don't need to perform the nightkill, even if it's just "if your target dies, their alignment/role will not be revealed", that still is a

visiting

action.

Meaning that TC could not be the janitor, and TC could not be the roleblocker, regardless.

[mastina]

HARD TOWN:
Sakura Hana
Romance
Bell

1

Titus
Mystic Bears

1

(Noraa + Flea the Magician)
Mandelbrot

2

(House + Yume)
Qrow and Raven (Gamma Emerald + Nancy Drew 39)
Tomorrow Corporation

3

tictac

3

SOFT TOWN:
Save The Dragons
RealCheeks (RCEnigma + CheekyTeeky)
Toogeloo

???:
Dwlee99

REMAINDER:
Whemestar
ArcAngel9

BASICALLY CONFSCUM:
Elsa Jay

1:

Weaker than it was but I still think both Flea and Noraa look town. Ditto for Bell.

2:

This is 100% due to Yume; if the slot were just House I'd kick the slot out of town altogether and go null-at-best.

3:

Explicitly due to H1H2 and to be revisited tomorrow, pending the results of my role N3/D4.

[mastina]

thought you were making a reference to that quote.

Oh, I was! I'm a big fan of Jedi Truths for playing mafia.

Why do i feel like you say this every game

Because I have god-tiered RNG as town and game mods genuinely give me roles where I can be conftown in like 90% of my games.

Legitimately, genuinely. It's just RNG. I seem to get these roles literally every single game. I don't know WHY, it's just luck of the draw.

(For instance, there was a time when I legitimately had like 10 mason-like roles IN A ROW.)

Change of plans. Sakura on Massy.

No, protectives should NOT be on me. Aside from me being on a raid that gives BP, I don't want to be protected at all this game.

Also why cant TC be a Ninja janitor that needs to kill to Janitor?

Oh I dunno...

This is basically me saying that TC going nowhere doesnt confirm him as anything other than VT or Scum

I mean, ninjas vs. trackers are an interaction mafiascum as a whole tends to strongly lean against.

Ninjas that are another scum role on top of being ninja are also something mafiascum tends to strongly lean against.

Ninjas that are another scum role on top of being ninja, versus a tracker? Combining both taboos into one?

It IS GIF, so you're right--he's a mod who could create a role that strong.

Doesn't change that suggesting it with zero evidence to support its existence is a violation of Occam's Razor.

What we know is that there was a scum janitor.
What we know is that there was a scum roleblocker.
What we know is that Titus tracked Tomorrow Corporation going nowhere.
What that suggests is that Tomorrow Corporation is not a scum roleblocker or a scum janitor or any scum role that had a visiting action.
What that then suggests is that the tracker result is a soft-

innocent

.

It is explicitly not a HARD-innocent. Because of the possibility of being a scum role with no visiting, or a ninja. But those possibilities are precisely that: just

possibilities

. Not probabilities. Because the balance of probability dictates that the simplest, most likely explanation, is that the innocent result from being tracked nowhere is precisely that; an innocent result.

It's enough to warrant giving me a day to bypass the janitor and potentially elevate soft-conftown to hard-conftown.

[mastina]

tictac is tied to TC, so not there.

TC lied about TicTac though. This is no longer credible. You'd have to bank TicTac being town specifically on H1/H2's flip, which also makes no sense since neither of TC or TicTac's characters are tied together, so whatever H1/H2 is shouldn't be able to mechanically sort the both of them.

H1H2 specifically claimed both of tictac and TC as town--not just one of them. There's been people saying their THEORIES about how H1H2 misunderstood, how H1H2 was misinterpreting, how H1H2 was mistaken, how H1H2 was wrong, etc.

But every single one of those is just a theory to justify going against what H1H2 said and what the scum did.
The scum janitored H1H2 to deny the town access to that info.
H1H2 said they had potential innocents on both tictac and TC.
It's possible H1H2 were mistaken, misunderstood, misinterpreted, sure--but saying that is just a theory, a hypothesis. It is not fact.

What IS fact is:
H1H2 claimed innocents on tictac and TC.
H1H2 was janitored by scum.
I have a method to bypass that janitor--meaning the information H1H2 had which scum attempted to deny to us, I can obtain.

Meaning it doesn't matter what theory you have--on D4 we will have answers, so there won't be a need for theorizing.

If the answers support the theories, that's great, the theories no longer are theories and become fact. But you should still be willing to give TC a day phase so that I can """investigate""" (it's not an investigation to be clear) the situation.

[mastina]

Yeesh I missed an entire day phase apparently.

Guess I'm annoying Nora for reads again >.<

I miss anything important in the mean time?

-A still slightly manic Flea

Quoting this to let you know where I am with a note that I'm not up to efforting tonight. (I usually take Saturdays off for me-time on mafiascum but I am currently taking an exhausted-from-doing-most-things breather/break which involved logging on and logging on means I have to attend to things like games, but I'm not up to it tonight. Beyond being 4:30 am with a fair number of pages to read, there's also the fact that I'm a bit depressed, and even if I wasn't, I just don't

want

to spend the entire remainder of my evening on mafiascum and want to do something...not-mafiascum right now.)

I'll PROBABLY be posting some time tomorrow, but if not it'd be Monday at the latest. (Apologies, I don't have the energy to play every day--the last couple of days between Thursday and Friday were exhausting and I need a break to recharge. Sorry.)

[mastina]

Alright, am here.
NGL, I still don't

really

wanna post in here, because I expect it'll take the majority of my effective night time, but I have the capacity to, I'm around on the site, I'm more lucid, it's an hour and a half earlier than it was yesterday so I have more time, and I'm in a better headspace that's more mafia-game-oriented so I really should in spite of not feeling like it, so starting now.

[mastina]

She's just forgotten how to read me, which is sad because she was one of the first that could read me within my first 10 posts back in the day.

There's multiple reasons for this. One's the trope The Fog of Ages. I've been playing mafia nonstop for, what, ten years by now? I'm coming up on my scumday in 4 days from now, and I started playing in 2008, with approximately one year taken as a break soon after but otherwise continuously active the entire time.

I've been playing the game, continuously, for nearly half my life. I've done so mostly on mafiascum, and for the last 5-7ish years, exclusively so on here. I've played hundreds of non-marathon games on this site. I've lived through every aspect of site culture, participated in almost every major event, I am active in discussion and the title fairy and read a lot of the stuff on the site, all while I continue to play games. I meet and play with new scummers every game.

There's only so much room in my brain for that info. I can't retain it all. Especially as my brain has lost some of the flexibility of youth. I've began to enter the "boomer memory" phase of life where things are harder to recall.

This is made worse by the fact that I am a minor form of plural, in that the me who plays is not always the same day to day, game to game, year to year. The core Bree is the same, and there is a main-me that I loosely consider 'mastina', but the main-me isn't always mastina and even when I AM mastina, the things which make the me who is mastina do change over time. (This, especially after I made the mastina account and the two main mes that I had deliberately kept mostly separate started to have the boundaries between them break down. They're still two explicitly different mes to this day, but they've cross-pollinated a lot, taking some from each other and trading traits thanks to a weaker wall between them. I can still tell that I'm different mes, but ever since I created the mastina account, my ability to explore my mes has greatly diminished since it's something I've actively avoided exploring my mind about. Which has the net effect of fucking with my memory and feelings and experiences because my sense of self isn't as defined as it was when I had the clear wall between my main two mes.)

And then there's just the ravages of time--even if I DID have perfect memory of how you play (and the above two are fairly large reasons I don't), are YOU the same as you were back then? Like...literally identical as a player? Because if you're not (and I think it's safe to say that you are, in fact, not literally identical), even a small change from who you are now compared to who you were years ago is enough to fuck with readability.

It's definitely sad, and unfortunate. I wish I had that perfect ability to read many players I've since lost the ability to read. But due to the three factors (fog of ages, mental mess of my mind, and even subtle changes from the player being enough to fuck up prior readability), if I haven't been actively playing with a player in the last 3-6 months, I've zero ability to read them. And even if I

have

, it's never good, never perfect.

Like, every game, I am still using 90% my "generic" tells on players, instead of the "meta" specific tells on players, with the 10% remaining being me refining the generic off of my experiences with the players. I still use way way WAY too much of the generic tells. I rely on them instead of the meta too much.

Give me House as town. Period.

Well I already am via Yume, so.

And I don’t understand why Mastina didn’t want Toog to be on the raid.

It's not that I didn't want Toogeloo on the raid, it's that I needed to be on the raid and I trust you more than I trust Toogeloo.

If Dwlee left the raid and the raid consisted of

ideal raid composition

Sakura Hana
Save The Dragons
Romance
Mandelbrot
Titus
Mystic Bears
mastina
Qrow and Raven

I am telling you, flat-out, I wouldn't need to use my power. In fact I am telling you that if the raid was composed of those 8 names, explicitly, I would NOT use my guaranteed success, because there'd be no need to. I trust the names in the above list to all be town and if any of them are not town, them failing the raid would expose that fact to me, forcing a necessity in reevaluating reads. (I value knowing scum is in my townbloc over a guarantee of bp and denying scum the multitasking.)

But since Dwlee's on the raid, obviously, different story altogether.

[mastina]

Spoiler: not game related

This is made worse by the fact that I am a minor form of plural, in that the me who plays is not always the same day to day, game to game, year to year. The core Bree is the same, and there is a main-me that I loosely consider 'mastina', but the main-me isn't always mastina and even when I AM mastina, the things which make the me who is mastina do change over time. (This, especially after I made the mastina account and the two main mes that I had deliberately kept mostly separate started to have the boundaries between them break down. They're still two explicitly different mes to this day, but they've cross-pollinated a lot, taking some from each other and trading traits thanks to a weaker wall between them. I can still tell that I'm different mes, but ever since I created the mastina account, my ability to explore my mes has greatly diminished since it's something I've actively avoided exploring my mind about. Which has the net effect of fucking with my memory and feelings and experiences because my sense of self isn't as defined as it was when I had the clear wall between my main two mes.)

Btw fun fact.
Is something I've not said before to my knowledge, but.
My decision to move to the mastina account was actually pretty much

because

the walls between the two main mes were breaking down. I wasn't lying when I said the other reasons for the move, that the name mastina is closer to my name of Brianna, that mastina is more feminine, that it'd help me move on to an account where I would be exclusively known as a girl since I hadn't known I was one for the first half of my mastin2 days, and it was a good fresh start.

All of that is true.

But because I don't often talk about being plural, and at the time there was actually a somewhat strong social taboo about most forms of plurality (DID systems were known and accepted, but other forms of systems like tulpas were very much NOT), that social stigma meant I wasn't as open about it.

Also, to some extent,
1: I didn't want to invade the privacy of the other main me,
2: The other main-me wanted to not be out in the open,
3: I didn't want to openly acknowledge and admit the walls had begun to break down between the two main-mes.

But the creation of this account, of me moving to mastina, was because the two main-mes, explicitly, were beginning to have the walls/barriers we had established break down, and we were in more direct communication, more directly influencing each other, etc.

You can actually trace this back to my dialog in Steven Universe 2. I had a different me driving for most of day two than I had driving on most of D1.

And D3 was when the two different mes began to have our walls break down. And

that

was the birth of me playing on mastina, because I realized I could no longer keep the barriers enough for the mastina-main-me to be on mastin2. You may note that on my (horribly-out-of-date) wiki for my played games, I list Steven Universe 2 as my 'zeroeth' game--and

this

is the reason why I did so. Because Steven Universe 2 was the game where the barriers between the two main mes began to break down and the mastina-me and the other main-me began to have more cross-contamination and weaker separation.

(I realize it can be confusing that this account is called mastina and I also have a main-me I identify as mastina, and that the main-me who is mastina existed before I created the mastina account and was the main driver on the mastin2 account and that it was only

after

the switch to mastina that the mastina-me became less dominant. I hope it makes sense.)

I DO want to, at SOME point, better explore my mind, to get a better understanding of my system, of the nature of my mes. But right now, I have a strong resistance to the idea of starting that right now, in spite of how I do still have that separation. (Right now, for instance, I can tell you that believe it or not, it's not the mastina-me posting this right now. It's the other-main-me.)

But I digress. Is all personal stuff; back to the game now.

[mastina]

Sorry, it’s probably a mix of avatar and preconceived notions.

(Btw can confirm, this is in fact something that has led to me misgendering Dwlee accidentally, precisely those factors. I

am

trying to actively remember and do better and such but I

have

on occasion slipped up and not caught it before I hit 'submit', unfortunately. I do apologize; I need to do better and am trying, I just...am very very slow and bad and shitty.)

Biggs and Wedge are reoccurring characters in the final fantasy series. They’re usually buddies in a militaristic outfit in whatever world they find themselves in and they were born and raised in whatever society they’re in. They’re named after Star Wars characters actually.

Wedge also shows up in ChronoTrigger (another Squaresoft title), but he's accompanied by Vicks & Piette, if memory serves.

Correction, Biggs is in that one too! Not Vicks.
Sorry, been ages.

Technically, you weren't actually wrong, owing to a bad translation in the original English SNES version of the game--Biggs

was

translated as 'Vicks' in the original English version of the game. It was only in a later release (DS maybe?) that the translation was updated to be the intended Biggs.

(I am a Chrono Trigger nerd. )

ArcAngel9 is in V/LA until Tuesday

again

.

Even the mod is getting in on the frustration with ArcAngel9 being a permanent lurker.

[mastina]

And aside from that fact, what exactly has Bell done after Day 1?

A lot more than you're giving him credit for?

Like...Bell has 272 posts.

129 of those were on D1, sure--but that means literally half his content has been after D1. And there's been plenty of content. This is the start of his D3 posting.

Literally half his posts have been

this day phase

.

Read his iso from the linked post and tell me with a straight face Bell has done nothing since D1.

Because he's done plenty enough.

Bell remains a top townread of mine.

[mastina]

Spoiler: not game related

This is made worse by the fact that I am a minor form of plural, in that the me who plays is not always the same day to day, game to game, year to year. The core Bree is the same, and there is a main-me that I loosely consider 'mastina', but the main-me isn't always mastina and even when I AM mastina, the things which make the me who is mastina do change over time. (This, especially after I made the mastina account and the two main mes that I had deliberately kept mostly separate started to have the boundaries between them break down. They're still two explicitly different mes to this day, but they've cross-pollinated a lot, taking some from each other and trading traits thanks to a weaker wall between them. I can still tell that I'm different mes, but ever since I created the mastina account, my ability to explore my mes has greatly diminished since it's something I've actively avoided exploring my mind about. Which has the net effect of fucking with my memory and feelings and experiences because my sense of self isn't as defined as it was when I had the clear wall between my main two mes.)

Btw fun fact.
Is something I've not said before to my knowledge, but.
My decision to move to the mastina account was actually pretty much

because

the walls between the two main mes were breaking down. I wasn't lying when I said the other reasons for the move, that the name mastina is closer to my name of Brianna, that mastina is more feminine, that it'd help me move on to an account where I would be exclusively known as a girl since I hadn't known I was one for the first half of my mastin2 days, and it was a good fresh start.

All of that is true.

But because I don't often talk about being plural, and at the time there was actually a somewhat strong social taboo about most forms of plurality (DID systems were known and accepted, but other forms of systems like tulpas were very much NOT), that social stigma meant I wasn't as open about it.

Also, to some extent,
1: I didn't want to invade the privacy of the other main me,
2: The other main-me wanted to not be out in the open,
3: I didn't want to openly acknowledge and admit the walls had begun to break down between the two main-mes.

But the creation of this account, of me moving to mastina, was because the two main-mes, explicitly, were beginning to have the walls/barriers we had established break down, and we were in more direct communication, more directly influencing each other, etc.

You can actually trace this back to my dialog in Steven Universe 2. I had a different me driving for most of day two than I had driving on most of D1.

And D3 was when the two different mes began to have our walls break down. And

that

was the birth of me playing on mastina, because I realized I could no longer keep the barriers enough for the mastina-main-me to be on mastin2. You may note that on my (horribly-out-of-date) wiki for my played games, I list Steven Universe 2 as my 'zeroeth' game--and

this

is the reason why I did so. Because Steven Universe 2 was the game where the barriers between the two main mes began to break down and the mastina-me and the other main-me began to have more cross-contamination and weaker separation.

(I realize it can be confusing that this account is called mastina and I also have a main-me I identify as mastina, and that the main-me who is mastina existed before I created the mastina account and was the main driver on the mastin2 account and that it was only

after

the switch to mastina that the mastina-me became less dominant. I hope it makes sense.)

I DO want to, at SOME point, better explore my mind, to get a better understanding of my system, of the nature of my mes. But right now, I have a strong resistance to the idea of starting that right now, in spite of how I do still have that separation. (Right now, for instance, I can tell you that believe it or not, it's not the mastina-me posting this right now. It's the other-main-me.)

But I digress. Is all personal stuff; back to the game now.

Spoiler: so much for being back in the game... :P

I'm sorry, I can't help it, I wanted to ramble on this some more.

The two main mes, mastina-me, and the-other-me (and it's the-other-me that's actually writing this, I do have a name for this half of me but I prefer to keep it private even on mafiascum), still have different memories, feelings, personalities, preferences, trends, specialties, etc.

My ability to tell the two mes apart isn't as good as it once was thanks to cross-pollination in these aspects, but I can still tell that I'm not the mastina-me

right now

due to the overwhelming amount of factors that typically are trends of the other me, between memories of certain things, preferred activities I want to be doing right now, the relative lack of pointless cussing, sense of humor, choice of when to use ':P', and also things I am thinking about, frame of mind, etc. Basically I can tell it's the non-mastina-me driving because the mastina-me doesn't have basically most of what I am right now nearly as often.

But, thanks to the cross-contamination from the weakened walls, I can tell that the mastina-me is still

here

and

influencing

me, she's just not the one typing this.

[mastina]

Spoiler: One final offgame addition

Spoiler: not game related

This is made worse by the fact that I am a minor form of plural, in that the me who plays is not always the same day to day, game to game, year to year. The core Bree is the same, and there is a main-me that I loosely consider 'mastina', but the main-me isn't always mastina and even when I AM mastina, the things which make the me who is mastina do change over time. (This, especially after I made the mastina account and the two main mes that I had deliberately kept mostly separate started to have the boundaries between them break down. They're still two explicitly different mes to this day, but they've cross-pollinated a lot, taking some from each other and trading traits thanks to a weaker wall between them. I can still tell that I'm different mes, but ever since I created the mastina account, my ability to explore my mes has greatly diminished since it's something I've actively avoided exploring my mind about. Which has the net effect of fucking with my memory and feelings and experiences because my sense of self isn't as defined as it was when I had the clear wall between my main two mes.)

Btw fun fact.
Is something I've not said before to my knowledge, but.
My decision to move to the mastina account was actually pretty much

because

the walls between the two main mes were breaking down. I wasn't lying when I said the other reasons for the move, that the name mastina is closer to my name of Brianna, that mastina is more feminine, that it'd help me move on to an account where I would be exclusively known as a girl since I hadn't known I was one for the first half of my mastin2 days, and it was a good fresh start.

All of that is true.

But because I don't often talk about being plural, and at the time there was actually a somewhat strong social taboo about most forms of plurality (DID systems were known and accepted, but other forms of systems like tulpas were very much NOT), that social stigma meant I wasn't as open about it.

Also, to some extent,
1: I didn't want to invade the privacy of the other main me,
2: The other main-me wanted to not be out in the open,
3: I didn't want to openly acknowledge and admit the walls had begun to break down between the two main-mes.

But the creation of this account, of me moving to mastina, was because the two main-mes, explicitly, were beginning to have the walls/barriers we had established break down, and we were in more direct communication, more directly influencing each other, etc.

You can actually trace this back to my dialog in Steven Universe 2. I had a different me driving for most of day two than I had driving on most of D1.

And D3 was when the two different mes began to have our walls break down. And

that

was the birth of me playing on mastina, because I realized I could no longer keep the barriers enough for the mastina-main-me to be on mastin2. You may note that on my (horribly-out-of-date) wiki for my played games, I list Steven Universe 2 as my 'zeroeth' game--and

this

is the reason why I did so. Because Steven Universe 2 was the game where the barriers between the two main mes began to break down and the mastina-me and the other main-me began to have more cross-contamination and weaker separation.

(I realize it can be confusing that this account is called mastina and I also have a main-me I identify as mastina, and that the main-me who is mastina existed before I created the mastina account and was the main driver on the mastin2 account and that it was only

after

the switch to mastina that the mastina-me became less dominant. I hope it makes sense.)

I DO want to, at SOME point, better explore my mind, to get a better understanding of my system, of the nature of my mes. But right now, I have a strong resistance to the idea of starting that right now, in spite of how I do still have that separation. (Right now, for instance, I can tell you that believe it or not, it's not the mastina-me posting this right now. It's the other-main-me.)

But I digress. Is all personal stuff; back to the game now.

Spoiler: so much for being back in the game... :P

I'm sorry, I can't help it, I wanted to ramble on this some more.

The two main mes, mastina-me, and the-other-me (and it's the-other-me that's actually writing this, I do have a name for this half of me but I prefer to keep it private even on mafiascum), still have different memories, feelings, personalities, preferences, trends, specialties, etc.

My ability to tell the two mes apart isn't as good as it once was thanks to cross-pollination in these aspects, but I can still tell that I'm not the mastina-me

right now

due to the overwhelming amount of factors that typically are trends of the other me, between memories of certain things, preferred activities I want to be doing right now, the relative lack of pointless cussing, sense of humor, choice of when to use ':P', and also things I am thinking about, frame of mind, etc. Basically I can tell it's the non-mastina-me driving because the mastina-me doesn't have basically most of what I am right now nearly as often.

But, thanks to the cross-contamination from the weakened walls, I can tell that the mastina-me is still

here

and

influencing

me, she's just not the one typing this.

Worth mentioning is that the me I am now is the me who isn't as fond of playing mafia anymore, which is why I don't

really

wanna be here right now, catching up. The mastina-me is usually the one who has the mood/energy for mafia games so when I'm at my most active onsite, she's usually the reason why. And when I am attending the site more out of obligation, it's usually because the current-main-me that's driving now, is driving.

Funnily enough, this is one trait that has actually swapped between the two main-mes. It

used

to be the case that the current-me loved mafia and mastina-me was burnt out, and it

used

to be the case that the mastina-me was my more wishy-washy half and the current-me-half was my more conviction-fueled half, but nowadays, I'm the half that a lot of my lack of confidence stems from whereas the mastina-me's the half where most of my conviction comes from.

[mastina]

Oops forgot about nested spoiler there, lemme fix that post.

Spoiler: One final offgame addition

This is made worse by the fact that I am a minor form of plural, in that the me who plays is not always the same day to day, game to game, year to year. The core Bree is the same, and there is a main-me that I loosely consider 'mastina', but the main-me isn't always mastina and even when I AM mastina, the things which make the me who is mastina do change over time. (This, especially after I made the mastina account and the two main mes that I had deliberately kept mostly separate started to have the boundaries between them break down. They're still two explicitly different mes to this day, but they've cross-pollinated a lot, taking some from each other and trading traits thanks to a weaker wall between them. I can still tell that I'm different mes, but ever since I created the mastina account, my ability to explore my mes has greatly diminished since it's something I've actively avoided exploring my mind about. Which has the net effect of fucking with my memory and feelings and experiences because my sense of self isn't as defined as it was when I had the clear wall between my main two mes.)

Btw fun fact.
Is something I've not said before to my knowledge, but.
My decision to move to the mastina account was actually pretty much

because

the walls between the two main mes were breaking down. I wasn't lying when I said the other reasons for the move, that the name mastina is closer to my name of Brianna, that mastina is more feminine, that it'd help me move on to an account where I would be exclusively known as a girl since I hadn't known I was one for the first half of my mastin2 days, and it was a good fresh start.

All of that is true.

But because I don't often talk about being plural, and at the time there was actually a somewhat strong social taboo about most forms of plurality (DID systems were known and accepted, but other forms of systems like tulpas were very much NOT), that social stigma meant I wasn't as open about it.

Also, to some extent,
1: I didn't want to invade the privacy of the other main me,
2: The other main-me wanted to not be out in the open,
3: I didn't want to openly acknowledge and admit the walls had begun to break down between the two main-mes.

But the creation of this account, of me moving to mastina, was because the two main-mes, explicitly, were beginning to have the walls/barriers we had established break down, and we were in more direct communication, more directly influencing each other, etc.

You can actually trace this back to my dialog in Steven Universe 2. I had a different me driving for most of day two than I had driving on most of D1.

And D3 was when the two different mes began to have our walls break down. And

that

was the birth of me playing on mastina, because I realized I could no longer keep the barriers enough for the mastina-main-me to be on mastin2. You may note that on my (horribly-out-of-date) wiki for my played games, I list Steven Universe 2 as my 'zeroeth' game--and

this

is the reason why I did so. Because Steven Universe 2 was the game where the barriers between the two main mes began to break down and the mastina-me and the other main-me began to have more cross-contamination and weaker separation.

(I realize it can be confusing that this account is called mastina and I also have a main-me I identify as mastina, and that the main-me who is mastina existed before I created the mastina account and was the main driver on the mastin2 account and that it was only

after

the switch to mastina that the mastina-me became less dominant. I hope it makes sense.)

I DO want to, at SOME point, better explore my mind, to get a better understanding of my system, of the nature of my mes. But right now, I have a strong resistance to the idea of starting that right now, in spite of how I do still have that separation. (Right now, for instance, I can tell you that believe it or not, it's not the mastina-me posting this right now. It's the other-main-me.)But I digress. Is all personal stuff; back to the game now.

I'm sorry, I can't help it, I wanted to ramble on this some more.

The two main mes, mastina-me, and the-other-me (and it's the-other-me that's actually writing this, I do have a name for this half of me but I prefer to keep it private even on mafiascum), still have different memories, feelings, personalities, preferences, trends, specialties, etc.

My ability to tell the two mes apart isn't as good as it once was thanks to cross-pollination in these aspects, but I can still tell that I'm not the mastina-me

right now

due to the overwhelming amount of factors that typically are trends of the other me, between memories of certain things, preferred activities I want to be doing right now, the relative lack of pointless cussing, sense of humor, choice of when to use ':P', and also things I am thinking about, frame of mind, etc. Basically I can tell it's the non-mastina-me driving because the mastina-me doesn't have basically most of what I am right now nearly as often.

But, thanks to the cross-contamination from the weakened walls, I can tell that the mastina-me is still

here

and

influencing

me, she's just not the one typing this.

Worth mentioning is that the me I am now is the me who isn't as fond of playing mafia anymore, which is why I don't

really

wanna be here right now, catching up. The mastina-me is usually the one who has the mood/energy for mafia games so when I'm at my most active onsite, she's usually the reason why. And when I am attending the site more out of obligation, it's usually because the current-main-me that's driving now, is driving.

Funnily enough, this is one trait that has actually swapped between the two main-mes. It

used

to be the case that the current-me loved mafia and mastina-me was burnt out, and it

used

to be the case that the mastina-me was my more wishy-washy half and the current-me-half was my more conviction-fueled half, but nowadays, I'm the half that a lot of my lack of confidence stems from whereas the mastina-me's the half where most of my conviction comes from.

[mastina]

(Btw actual game-relevance to 4061 is that right now, the mastina-me is actually falling deeper and deeper away, which is making it harder and harder for me to play the game as more of the non-mastina-me is coming out. The mastina-me literally said to the me who is driving right now, and I quote, 'focus, dammit!', because I am struggling very very hard to do so, am slipping out into my own world of thought which has nothing to do with mafia so am struggling more and more to read and be constructive, sorry. I kinda suck.)

Kind of surprised that everyone was saying that Bell had this creature style meta that led everyone to townread him D1 and now he's suddenly into a bunch of people's PoE.

Well, it's an unfortunate side-effect of a combination of goldfish-memory and paranoia, with people not remembering just

how

town Bell is, thinking he's posted less than he actually has, thinking he's contributed less than he has, and them being too lazy to look and refresh their memory and realizing that, actually, yes, Bell IS in fact that town.

That, or it comes from them being scum, but I find the former (town not remembering right and their paranoia eating at them) more likely than the latter in most cases. (Which is to say, there

could

be scum pushing Bell, but I'd need to see the list of names of players pushing Bell in order to tell you if there actually IS, because by default, I'd assume it's town doing a dumb rather than scum doing a scum.)

[mastina]

I think the take away I'm getting here is that Cakez actually didn't push for Elsa as much as I thought. He made a few idle comments in regards to Wheme, but never made a serious push there. He spent quite a bit of time trying to get in the pockets of dwlee and Mandelbrot, but that's on a cursory glance. His biggest pushes were Mirio, Romance, and Q&R.

As I've said before, this is indicative of SirCakez's usual scum MO. He's

tried

to change his scum modus operandi, but no matter how many times he tries, it seems he always in the end has the very very very bad habit of falling into a typical scum trait for how he treats his scumbuddies, and the usual way he does so is precisely what you describe:
Pushing them, but not as much as people think he pushed them. Rarely a serious push there. Pocketing town with biggest pushes on town, but still looking 'town' if his scumbuddies were to flip before him thanks to him having constantly suspected them.

If you'd like, I can give you a few examples of this behavior from him in prior scumgames of his for you to compare, with the understanding that SirCakez has had his scum meta critiqued

multiple

times (at least two or three) and has

tried

to change and thus that it probably won't be an

exact

match. (I just think that, in spite of him having tried to change, he still whether accidentally or deliberately fell into his old bad habit here, with the push on Elsa being scum-scum.)

[mastina]

I thought people wanted mastina to unjanitor H12 first to see if they really have a clear on tictac and TC?

For the record, I'll probably regret saying this when it's the mastina-me back in the driver's seat, but I should say that I'm actually very very doubtful of me being able to get clears from my role.

If I'm being fully honest with myself, it's more of a possibility than it is a probability.

I

do

think that Titus tracking TC to nowhere is, genuinely, a probability of an innocent (TC being more likely than rand town from it) versus the possibility of being a worthless result (TC being scum that didn't show as visiting but still being scum).

But I don't think the odds are in my favor of my role actually clearing TC/tictac.

I DO want to still try, so I DO prefer not to eliminate either TC or tictac today in spite of doubting that I'll

actually

get a clear.

It's the kind of thing that's basically: if I get nothing clearing, it was low-risk that had zero reward, but if I DO get something clearing, it was no risk with a HIGH reward. And given that the risk is near-zero and the potential reward is incredibly high, it's worth a shot, even if I'm not optimistic about the chance of actually getting two clears.

(Basically, do I think we'll get two clears? No. Do I want to try and get two clears? Yes. Do I think it's worth trying? Yes. Do I think we should hold off on TC/tictac eliminations at least for today? Also yes.)

[mastina]

She never claimed anything about it herself tho, right? That's why she's being vague about it.

I am indeed deliberately keeping it vague because the scum will have less ability to make the most optimal moves if they are guessing.

There's a finite number of possible methods, so their guess pool isn't exactly huge (only so many ways you can bypass a janitor), but they still

need

to

guess

, and if they guess wrong, they can make a misstep, a misplay, which makes their actions not be optimal and making scum take non-optimal actions is obviously preferable to handing scum the optimal night action play.

She won't claim a flavor because none would get past Toog.

Actually, I'm not claiming flavor because in spite of my lack of familiarity with the source material, I'm like 90% sure my flavor would give away the method of my janitor bypass, the very thing I am trying to keep vague to force the scum to guess.

When the janitor has been bypassed, obfuscating that detail will obviously no longer be a necessity.

[mastina]

Yo. First off:

VOTE: Join Raid

Join Raid

For obvious reasons, given that you want me on this raid. Just sayin', keeping a guaranteed success every day is very very strong.

2:

Elsa Jay, Lahabrea (

Garlean Invader 1-shot Combined Janitor Roleswapper

), was eliminated Day 3.

You are

Lahabrea (

Garlean Invader 1-shot Combined Janitor Roleswapper

)

Ability:

• Ascian:
  As an Ascian, you have a power to overtake someone's body. Once per game, when you make a nightkill you may choose to hide the flip of the target. If successful, you will also take his role.

While my role can bypass the janitor aspect of this role, I got confirmation from the mod that I wouldn't be able to bypass the 'take role' aspect. In other words, as soon as the janitor was used, we lost the ability to ever know what H1H2 knew because Elsa stole it, meaning, my bypass wouldn't work.

In other words, I can bypass the

janitor

, but I cannot bypass the

roleswapper

, so it's a good thing we flipped Elsa yesterday.

3: I wrote this before the topic was locked and while it was partially a case on Elsa, it still has good info so I'mma posting it now.

I think it looks like Elsa Jay is the consensus. I think it's wrong, but I think the wagon is pure with the exception of possibly tictac and TC, who MAY be resolved in the night phase. I'm debating moving my vote there in case I am wrong.

I realize that Elsa's not lockscum here, but there's multiple reasons I prefer the Elsa elimination.
1: SirCakez's treatment of Elsa Jay fits his scum modus operandi of how he usually defaults to treating his scumbuddies. Though this is not slam-dunk (as SirCakez is aware of his meta and actively trying to change it), it seems more like a probability than a possibility that SirCakez slipped back into the bad habit without having consciously thought about it.

2: Elsa Jay was on the failed raid, and there is only a finite number of possible scum on that raid. Even

if

Elsa Jay is town, an Elsa Jay flip is, explicitly, not worthless, as it, explicitly, would narrow down the number of finite names who could be scum on the failed raid.

3: By play, Elsa Jay's play has felt incredibly pro-scum. This is a little hard to quantify, but when it comes to the motivation and intent of Elsa's posts, to me they reek of being scum. I realize this is something that's subjective rather than objective, but I still should call it as I see it. When I look at Elsa Jay's posts, I struggle to see the town justification for them. (It requires me to go through difficult logical leaps relying on Elsa Jay basically being a manipulator even as town and being, so to speak, in the Flavor Leaf/Boonskiies school of play, and even via

that

, I have a hard time tracking. But admittedly, due to how foreign/alien the FL school of play is to my brain, I can't follow it too well anyway. Still, though, it's extra hard for me to see it this game from Elsa.) In contrast, when I look at Elsa Jay's posts in the lens of them coming from a scum wincon, every post, every move, just makes perfect sense.

4: I genuinely think that, with the possible exception of Dwlee, all the names on the D2 raid aside from Elsa are more likely town than scum.
I've doubts on TC owing to the lackluster play from the slot, sure, but as I've said I genuinely believe the tracker result of going nowhere is a probability-of-innocent over possibility.
I've doubts on tictac being town, due to tictac's content overall being in the Toogeloo school of "it's there, but you don't really remember it" (Toog has seen me describe his play multiple times so Toog will understand what I mean by this), but what I see

does

look town, especially more recently.
I've doubts on RealCheeks being town, but both heads have looked town to me overall with their posting, especially CheekyTeeky. There's no

guarantee

that they're town, but they definitely

look

town to me.
And while Bell

could

be scum, I'm still like 90% sure that this is Bell as town, to the point where Bell remains one of my top townreads.

So I genuinely don't see the scum who caused the raid to fail, being anyone other than {Elsa Jay, Dwlee99}.

None of these on their own would be strong, but with all four, it builds up. I don't have a slam-dunk "Elsa Jay is clearly scum here beyond any question of doubt".

But I genuinely think that Elsa Jay is the best elimination, both due to a fairly high chance of Elsa flipping scum,

and

, the clear tangible benefits to be had even if Elsa

doesn't

flip scum.

[mastina]

VC 3.05

Tomorrow Corporation (2):

WhemeStar, Mystic Bears

Mandelbrot (1):

Save The Dragons

tictac (1):

Qrow and Raven

ArcAngel9 (1):

Dwlee99

Mystic Bears (1):

Bell

Not Voting:

ArcAngel9, Elsa Jay

Btw really only interested in voting in this pool.

And from them:

HARD TOWN:
Bell
Qrow and Raven (Gamma Emerald + Nancy Drew 39)
tictac

SOFT TOWN:
Save The Dragons

???:
Dwlee99

REMAINDER:
Whemestar
ArcAngel9

So like.

VOTE: ArcAngel9
Would also vote: {WhemeStar, Dwlee99}.

Do I think that group is exclusively the scum?

No, but I'm not really interested in touching the Elsa voters today and I'm not interested in touching my previous hard townreads today.

[mastina]

It's boring but like. If the slot's town oh well, if the slot's scum it's a super easy flip.

Basically why I want the D4/D5 flips to be ArcAngel9 and WhemeStar.

If we get two scum from that, we're down to the last scum and things get more spicy.
If we get one scum from that, we still gotta find two more but we've got scum basically locked down and things begin to get spicy.
If we get no scum from that, kinda sucks, but oh well; we can begin to hard-effort at that point.

[mastina]

Because the VC said he did. Ask GiF. I’m not making that up. He was the hammer despite never actually self-voting.

can confirm.

Echoing this. When I saw the final vote on Elsa Jay was Elsa Jay without Elsa having voted Elsa Jay, I lowkey thought that Elsa had stolen a role from H1H2 that would self-hammer at L-1 honestly.

[mastina]

Do you think we should do a mass claim while you're still alive at this point?

I wouldn't be opposed to a mass-flavor-claim and the folks that are consistently in the bottom half of most folks's readslists being required to back their flavor up with a roleclaim.

I wouldn't want everyone to claim tho.

If we get to 3 scum dead, sure, massclaim feels fine, but with only two scum dead massclaim feels suboptimal.

Especially with the scum roleblocker alive.

Kill another scum and/or kill the scum roleblocker, fuck yeah massclaim away but with three scum alive and a scum roleblocker, not really comfortable with a massclaim of roles. Mass-flavor-claim would be fine with players topping the elimination charts forced to claim, but EVERYONE even the townie slots fully massclaiming feels like a mistake here.

[mastina]

I want to see h1h2's role

So did I, but sadly, while my role can bypass a janitor it cannot bypass the effects of a roleswapper and thus cannot reveal h1h2's role. Using my janitor bypass would just reveal that h1h2 had had their role swapped by Elsa.

Like, I was getting, "shut up, we're Masons" kinda vibes from the hard defense & the way MB submitted a raid list exchanging his name for Elsa's.

I genuinely thought that Elsa had a neighborhood with the players most strongly defending Elsa (e.g. House, Titus, MB, StD--not all of them, obv, but some of them) and that the reason they were hard-defending Elsa was due to some neighborhood shenanigans.

Apparently not tho.

[mastina]

I'm suddenly getting paranoid about mastina =_=

Iso me, control-F "cakez".
Repeat this control-f, but with "Elsa" instead.

Then iso Elsa and control-f 'mas'.

There was literally NO player pushing Elsa harder than I was and if you think there was, you can fuck off because I was 100% the strongest pusher of Elsa being scum bar none. You can give

credit

for the Elsa elimination elsewhere as I was not the only reason Elsa was eliminated but while I may not own 100% credit for the elimination, I WAS the

strongest

pusher of that elimination.

So either I was hard-bussing or I'm not scum.

(Also this isn't my scum meta, so.)

Can mastina pass the raid by herself with her role?

If you're asking if I could pass the raid solo as the only one on it?

Haven't asked the mod but I'd actually assume the answer is 'yes', given nothing says I couldn't.

However, doing so would obviously burn through a guaranteed success. Given I only have two shots total and burned one D1 (with it being beneficial to not specify if I did or did not burn it D3), I don't want to burn through a shot today.

Tomorrow if you want me to verify my role though would be happy to pass a raid solo (or close to).

(Basically, right now I have either 0 or 1 shots. If it's 0 I can't burn through a success; if it's 1 I don't want to reveal that I have only 1 by forcing a burned success. Tomorrow if I am on the raid and it succeeds, I will have either 1 or 2 shots, depending on how many shots I have right now and if I burn one today but will always have at least one with a chance I have two. So obviously, confirming my role that way would be optimal tomorrow, not today.)

mastina had her chance at the coroner, supposedly we'd know the flip even if she died, well she's alive, and we don't know the flip so i'm assuming she either got interfered with or was lying. So there should be no reason for her to withhold a full claim.

I was not lying. My role can bypass a janitor. It was explicitly confirmed by GIF that everything I thought about it was true. I couldn't be roleblocked and it would work even if I was nightkilled.

However, I did not anticipate the roleswapper.

And my role cannot bypass the roleswapper.

So I didn't use my role last night because it would not have revealed anything useful.

I

really

don't wanna eat a modkill from communication being too close to what GIF said, but basically, GIF said RE: Elsa Jay's role, that after Elsa used the roleswapper, H1H2 would be shown as having had their role stolen. H1H2's original role would not be revealed, because my role cannot bypass the roleswapper.

I don't know how else to explain it beyond that.
My role can bypass a

janitor

. Nothing can prevent my role from bypassing a janitor. Scum can't roleblock my janitor-bypass and scum killing me won't stop my janitor-bypass from functioning.
My role cannot bypass a

roleswapper

, because while my role can bypass the janitor, it would then after having bypassed the janitor not show H1H2's original role but rather show that H1H2 had their role stolen.

there's no further use for her role

Actually, there is. I said my role could bypass a janitor; when did I say that was

all

it could do? I didn't. My role has other utility beyond bypassing a janitor.

And I'd rather not out it.

I'm not exactly fond of flavor-claiming (though I'm not hard-opposed) specifically because I'm like 90% sure flavor-claiming will reveal the nature of the role that functions as a janitor-bypass. I'm

willing

to, but I'm not claiming short of the town, ALL of the town, massclaiming (and that is something, per what I've said, I'm opposed to with 3 scum alive with one of them a roleblocker).

[mastina]

Oh I see, the fact that Janitor included a roleswap with it means the +1 shot on it is useless because it loses the janitor portion when claiming the new role, that was smart GIF.

It was also what fucks over my intended nonconventional use of my role. (My role was not

designed

to bypass a janitor, but I confirmed with GIF it had the theoretical

ability

to bypass the janitor. It does not however have the ability to bypass the roleswapper so by making the janitor a rolesweapper, my role could, fundamentally, not actually bypass the janitor because while it technically bypasses the janitor the intended effect of the janitor of preventing the role from being revealed is preserved because my bypass doesn't reveal the original role, it reveals the swapped role.)

[mastina]

(Btw did ask a couple of questions to the mod. There was one interaction I didn't check out that I should have, and I also asked about Dwlee's question.)

[mastina]

Even if we dont massclaim, mastina should 100% full claim today.

Frankly?

No.

If you think I'm scum by play go ahead and try your damned best to make a case of me being scum by play.

Because this is literally one of THE towniest games I've ever had and I'm MILES outside my scumrange and was THE biggest pusher for Elsa being scum (we would never have gotten an Elsa elimination if I hadn't been as avid as I was for us to not eliminate TC/tictac because the wagons on them would've always been bigger if not for me) and even a pusher of SirCakez being scum before the guilty.

If the entirety of your paranoia is based on me not fullclaiming my role?

Fuck

that.

[mastina]

Hmm mastina wanted STD dead D2

I mean STD was

among

the players I wanted dead then but I've since come to the belief that this might be STD as town, so.

Wtf was the point of being able to reveal a janitor but not a roleswap

Giving me a chance to be too smart for my own good, apparently.

There's no utility in hiding your flavor.

There is, actually. Outing my flavor basically outs the method by which I could bypass the janitor but not bypass the roleswapper.

I'm like 100% sure that if I fullclaim and Toogeloo is alive, Toog would go "oh yeah mastina's 100% truthfully claiming here" because of the flavor matching to

both

of my powers perfectly. (I know absolutely NOTHING about FFXIV, but given what my flavor is, even someone inept as me can tell that my flavor matches my role 100% perfectly. And, fuck, given what my role is, you don't need to be Toogeloo to tell. If *I* with my absolute zero flavor knowledge can tell that my flavor 100% fits my role perfectly, then the scum knowing my flavor can, even without knowing my role, figure out what it is due to how obvious it is.)

I'll give you a hint as to my flavor though; I'm a protagonist. Being the protagonist I am, if I ever

did

fullclaim I'd probably be conftown'd on the spot for it. Y'all would be rather

enlightened

from the experience.

[mastina]

She can see current posts when her post... posts.

Actually, that requires me to not close the tab immediately after I hit 'submit' and see "your message has been posted successfully". But since I always do...

If mastina turns out to not be town, I'm thinking she's more likely to be solo scum than group scum.

I'm not advocating for her elimination based on unfounded suspicion. Just a possibility to keep in mind.

So...you want to...serial killer hunt now?

Hmm.

Wonder which faction benefits from hunting 3ps?

Wasn't it YOU, House, who said as much? (Could be mistaken but I seem to distinctly recall in a prior game you being very explicit that 3p hunting is a scumtell.)

[mastina]

This post has solo scum all over it.

Oh that? That post was me hinting at my role/flavor. (The two need to be combined to form the certain point of view, but are very closely linked together.)

So, couldnt you have used it on Elsa to find the swapped role?

(Btw did ask a couple of questions to the mod.

There was one interaction I didn't check out that I should have

, and I also asked about Dwlee's question.)

That would be the one interaction I didn't check out that I should have.

I legitimately genuinely didn't think about it until today, which is a fuckup on my end, sorry. I'll let you know once GIF gets back to me, though.

[mastina]

If scum knew how to flavor match they wouldnt be getting caught with their fake claims methinks

I'm saying that my flavor is SO obvious and SO matched to my role that scum don't need to know flavor. Even with an inability to match flavor to a role, they could still pull it off with me. Because my flavor-role correlation is SO obvious even people with absolutely 0% role/flavor knowledge can make the connection from one to the other.

[mastina]

There is no serial killer with the ammount of kills per night we've had so far.
More importantly if there WAS a serial killer i'd been dead ages ago.

Yeah, idk why she even jumped to that conclusion.

I use SK to refer to any malevolent 3p.
You said I could be 'solo scum'--a term for malevolent 3p.

But this is still a deflection from my point:

If mastina turns out to not be town, I'm thinking she's more likely to be solo scum than group scum.

I'm not advocating for her elimination based on unfounded suspicion. Just a possibility to keep in mind.

So...you want to...serial killer hunt now?

Hmm.

Wonder which faction benefits from hunting 3ps?

Wasn't it YOU, House, who said as much? (Could be mistaken but I seem to distinctly recall in a prior game you being very explicit that 3p hunting is a scumtell.)

Which faction has more incentive to hunt for 3ps?

Is it the town, when we know for a fact that there's still scum left in the game? At least two, and almost assuredly three?

I think not.

[mastina]

mastina i dunno why you want me to trust you when

I'm suddenly getting paranoid about mastina =_=

Iso me, control-F "cakez".
Repeat this control-f, but with "Elsa" instead.

Then iso Elsa and control-f 'mas'.

There was literally NO player pushing Elsa harder than I was and if you think there was, you can fuck off because I was 100% the strongest pusher of Elsa being scum bar none. You can give

credit

for the Elsa elimination elsewhere as I was not the only reason Elsa was eliminated but while I may not own 100% credit for the elimination, I WAS the

strongest

pusher of that elimination.

So either I was hard-bussing or I'm not scum.

(Also this isn't my scum meta, so.)

If you think I'm scum by play go ahead and try your damned best to make a case of me being scum by play.

Because this is literally one of THE towniest games I've ever had and I'm MILES outside my scumrange and was THE biggest pusher for Elsa being scum (we would never have gotten an Elsa elimination if I hadn't been as avid as I was for us to not eliminate TC/tictac because the wagons on them would've always been bigger if not for me) and even a pusher of SirCakez being scum before the guilty.

If the entirety of your paranoia is based on me not fullclaiming my role?

Fuck

that.

[mastina]

I use SK to refer to any malevolent 3p.
You said I could be 'solo scum'--a term for malevolent 3p.

I use scum to refer to any non-town faction.

Malevolent or neutral.

Which you should have figured out when I brought up survivor.

And you're

still

deflecting from my point:

But this is still a deflection from my point:

If mastina turns out to not be town, I'm thinking she's more likely to be solo scum than group scum.

I'm not advocating for her elimination based on unfounded suspicion. Just a possibility to keep in mind.

So...you want to...serial killer hunt now?

Hmm.

Wonder which faction benefits from hunting 3ps?

Wasn't it YOU, House, who said as much? (Could be mistaken but I seem to distinctly recall in a prior game you being very explicit that 3p hunting is a scumtell.)

Which faction has more incentive to hunt for 3ps?

Is it the town, when we know for a fact that there's still scum left in the game? At least two, and almost assuredly three?

I think not.

[mastina]

If you tell me your character name, I'll confirm whether your role seems credible. There are maybe 2 characters I can think of with your role.

@mastina

Technically, my character doesn't have a name.

Does that narrow it down for you?

[mastina]

I don't give a fuck about your loaded question.

What makes it loaded and not valid?

3p hunting is NOT scumhunting because scum are, explicitly, the scum faction.

So I repeat.

Which faction has more incentive to hunt for 3p?

Why are you focusing on hunting 3p instead of focusing on scum?

You backed off after a while, sure!

But why did you go there in the first place?

Why the FUCK did you decide to look for 3p instead of looking for scum when you know that, by the evidence, I am not scum?

You brought something up that you had no reason to bring up in the first place.

[mastina]

Are you seriously claiming the Warrior of Light?

Yes.

I genuinely thought at the beginning of the game that everyone was Warriors of Lights. Everyone was a Warrior of Light, just with some having different abilities than others.

I was genuinely surprised/confused to learn that players in this game were claiming to be named characters.

I can give you the exact image used in my role PM (not the same one GIF used, mind you, but there's multiple sources of this one so I could link to it without it being the one GIF used with it being valid because it wasn't gotten through GIF) since I saw at least three different versions of the image used with a quick google search of FFXIV Warrior of Light, buuuuuuuut, since I don't want to toe the line, I'll instead use a

different

one that I believe is the same character. Two in fact.

^This guy, but he has a sword on his back. Gigantic sword. (At least I assume, from the size of the hilt.)

^Might also be this guy.
If you do the google search tho, the actual image used in the role PM is one where the sword is on the Warrior of Light's back.

My guaranteed-raid-success is from being Raid Leader.
My janitor-bypass-that-fails-on-a-roleswap is from my main power, which isn't intended as a janitor-bypass. It's a power that I thought was weak initially, then thought might be the strongest ability in the game, but now which I think is about middling in strength.

[mastina]

JOIN RAID;
CLAIM: I HAVE a 1X ABILITY TO GUARANTEE A RAID SUCCEEDS

Am phoneposting, so can go into details later, but y'all can discuss which of the 3 options below are best:
-Dont use it
-Use it
-Dont announce use/not use of the guaranteed success, but use some private method to determine which.

Regardless, I should be a part of the raid.

I can claim details + RVs reads once home. Which will be in 6+ hours, so later tonight.

First matter of business: I decided to not do the fullclaim of the ability here.

I figured that the ability might not be unique to me

, and while me fullclaiming it would

conftown me to any others with the ability

, that's redundant--I'm fairly confident in my ability to show myself to be town without relying on a role to do so, meaning it's more valuable for me to hold off on the info to potentially conftown someone else with the power.

I will say that's not my only power, but obviously I see no reason to fullclaim right out of the gate D1.

Soo mastina uses her role to auto succeed raid and then gets another auto succeed.
Seems cool

I did check with the mod, and as a matter of fact: yes. That's in fact how it works! The mod confirmed that me using my 1x guaranteed raid success...will give me another shot at a guaranteed raid success.

The downside to me claiming/confirming this is that now all scum with X-shots know they can get another X-shot but hopefully the town can get more mileage out of the raid. (I claimed without knowing what the raid bonus was, I saw my role earlier, formed a plan for what I'd do on daystart, I was phoneposting when the game started, so didn't know the ramifications until now.)

Honestly this should've given it away to you, Toog.

How many characters have the exact same ability with the exact same flavor in FFXIV? I wouldn't know, but I imagine it couldn't be many.
How many

player characters

have the exact same ability with the exact same flavor? Well potentially, any/all of them.

I genuinely thought literally everyone in this game that was,

Warrior of Light

(

Eorzean *insert their role here*

), followed by a descriptor of their role and what it does following.

I was pretty baffled to learn that the roles from this game

weren't

various different versions of the Warrior of Light, but rather, that I was the

only

Warrior of Light and everyone else was an NPC.

[mastina]

@mastina... In the sense of the game, there is only ONE Warrior of Light. All other players that are not you are considered Adventurers. So for purpose of story telling and game building, there would be only one WoL.

Yeah but it's an MMO. I thought everyone was player characters (with specific powers) except maybe the scum who would have fakeclaims of being player characters (with specific powers). That everyone would be a Warrior of Light, just with their jobs/classes/etc. being different between them, since I know that you can have different jobs/classes/etc. that serve various different functions.

[mastina]

Mastina if Elsa succeeded in swapping then when Elsa flipped did the traded role flip or Elsa's OG role flip?

I'd assume that alignments can't be shown wrong or else the game would be labeled bastard. If Elsa was town, then Elsa flipping as scum would be bastard modding, and to my knowledge, the game wasn't advertised as bastard, so. GIF would literally lose his modding experience for making a bastard game out of a game advertised as not bastard, if Elsa weren't scum.

It is interesting that 3p is the only party mandel seems right on.

Oh I'm not 3p.

I just genuinely think House's insistence on

hunting for 3p

is scummy as fuck because why the fuck would town hunt for 3p?

I am, explicitly, not groupscum--even if House

were

right about me being 3p (which he isn't, since my power is explicitly tied to me being town and fundamentally cannot come from a 3p which y'all would know if I fullclaimed which is, again, one of the reasons I don't want to), focusing on 3p is, and I want to reiterate this because House keeps deflecting: not hunting for groupscum. Yaknow: the thing

guaranteed

to exist and still be in the game?

Focusing on hunting (nonexistent, non-proven) 3p instead of focusing on hunting (proven to exist, certain to have 2-3 more members) groupscum.

[mastina]

[*]

Is it possible your game has any of the following: cults, mid-game alignment changes, moderator lies that cannot be reasonably anticipated (for example, Godfather, Tailor, Miller, Ninja, and mechanics like that are generally fine. Telling someone they are a reflexive doctor when they're actually a PGO is not), secret win conditions, un-divulged non-randomness in player role/alignment generation, direct moderator influence during the game? (Yes/No)

- No[/list]

Per this, a player flipping scum that was not actually scum would be a moderator lie that cannot be reasonably anticipated. So Elsa was scum.

That, aside from the fact that in private GIF basically confirmed to me that Elsa was scum.

[mastina]

I meant if both H1H2 and Elsa were scum together.

Still runs into the same issues aside from GIF having also implied to me that H1H2 was town. (Obviously not confirmed, but implied.)

[mastina]

So, couldnt you have used it on Elsa to find the swapped role?

(Btw did ask a couple of questions to the mod.

There was one interaction I didn't check out that I should have

, and I also asked about Dwlee's question.)

That would be the one interaction I didn't check out that I should have.

I legitimately genuinely didn't think about it until today, which is a fuckup on my end, sorry. I'll let you know once GIF gets back to me, though.

Btw I did get an answer to both of my questions.
My janitor bypass would fail on H1H2 because, thanks to the roleswapper, H1H2 is [mafia role];
My janitor bypass would fail on Elsa Jay because Elsa Jay is mafia [role].

But, I CAN solo-pass a raid assuming I have a shot and I burn it. I can be the only player on a raid and pass the raid, IF I have a shot.
I can claim if I have 0 or 1 shot right now, obviously, but I'd prefer not to, because tomorrow I will always have at least 1 shot and potentially 2.
(If I have 0 shots and the raid succeeds, I go up to having 1 shot. If I have 1 shot and blow the shot to make this raid succeed, I have 1 shot tomorrow. If I have 1 shot now and holster on the raid succeed, tomorrow I have 2 shots.)

Seriously, don't mess with my FF knowledge. I have been a fan since I played the first Final Fantasy on my NES back on Christmas Day in 1987.

On that note, what do you think of ""Final Fantasy"" Legend I/II/III (which was really SaGa 1/2/3 but released as Final Fantasy Legend because Final Fantasy was popular at the time and nobody knew about SaGa)?

The third was genuinely, up with Chrono Trigger, THE game that left the biggest influence on me as a kid. (I literally became a writer because of "Final Fantasy" Legend III aka SaGa 3.) To this day, it remains one of my favorite games of all time, tho I still like the second game.

[mastina]

Btw I did get an answer to both of my questions.
My janitor bypass would fail on H1H2 because, thanks to the roleswapper, H1H2 is [mafia role];
My janitor bypass would fail on Elsa Jay because Elsa Jay is mafia [role].

(And yes, to reiterate, this does mean my role only works on town roles. Which, again, is why House's claim that I'm 3p is pretty debunk. I literally

can't

be 3p. I can

only

be town. And me fullclaiming would reveal precisely why I can ONLY be town.)

[mastina]

Just like at the VII Remake. Case closed.

To be honest, I'm fine with the story of the VII remake. It's deceptive because

people with no knowledge of the original game get continuity lockout because the game's a Stealth Sequel and the title of 'Remake' is how it is Aeris basically with full knowledge of the original timeline trying to make a new better timeline meaning knowledge of the original timeline is required

, but as a fan of the original story, I actually think that's a bonus, not a detriment. The expansion on characters who were originally side-characters was good, too! I genuinely love some aspects of the story being told and how it's not an

exact

retelling of the original game but still has many parallels to the original game.

There's two main gripes I have with the game though.
The first is that it only covers the first half of the first disc of the original game. Like, we get out of the city at the end of the Remake, but that was like the halfway point on Disc 1...of a 3-Disc game. They covered less than 1/6th of the story of the original game. If they titled it something like "Part One", it'd make it clear that it's not done, but by having it be titled just "Final Fantasy VII Remake" they left casual viewers/gamers under the impression that it was the complete game, that it alone was a retelling of all of the original FFVII when...it aint even close. (You might think that nobody wouldn't know this. But I've

watched

streamers, MULTIPLE streamers, who were under the impression that it WAS telling the entirety of the story. Because they deliberately wanted to avoid spoilers from the original game, they didn't know about the fact that the new game only covers 1/6th of the original game's plot.)

I more or less blame whoever was in charge of marketing for that though (whoever set the title of the game), more than I do the people in charge of the story or the game.

The second, and biggest, gripe, is the change in battle mechanics. Like, I LIKE RPG games, which're pseudo-turn-based but have timers for actions, like the original FFVII was. Where you wait until your turn, then select an action, and attack, and the enemy waits for their turn and attacks, and depending on your game settings, the enemies can continue to attack if you're taking too long to select your own attack. (Chrono Trigger is similarly this style of game battle mechanic. And it is among my favorites.)

I've ZERO love for what amounts to a hack-n-slash game. You can be generous and call it

tactical

hack-n-slash, but even with the settings meant to get you closest to the game mechanics of the original game, it's still not an RPG pseudo-turn-based combat system. It's a hack-n-slash combat system. This change alone is such that it KILLS any interest I have of EVER playing the game myself. I'll

watch

playthroughs of the game, even/especially a 100%-playthrough, even someone playing through multiple times (for instance, to see the multitude of dresses you can have for the three dress-wearers in the game). I'll watch the game 1000 times because the story is still

damn

good, and I love the narrative, the characters, and the expanded worldbuilding, fleshing out aspects of the original game that were just hinted at (or only expanded upon in later works), showing off the world, but with some extra. It's a wonderful environment.

But the shit decision to make the combat shift from my favorite combat style to my LEAST favorite combat style means that instead of playing the game, I'll never ever play it and will stick to the original (which I happen to own on Steam).

[mastina]

Mastina needs to verify that she even has the charges to solo a raid, and then has to verify with the mod she even can. Either of those is a no, we need to put town reads on the raid.

It works, but I don't want to out if I have charges today. I'll claim the number tomorrow.

If Mastina is claiming survivor, House can shut it.

It's explicitly impossible for me to be scum because, explicitly, my role can ONLY work if I am town. It literally cannot exist as either a scum role OR a neutral role.

This was the first raid, im 90% sure the scum strongman was in it. If we eliminate EJ who is known to not be, and mastina who is also obviously not the strongman now we get

Mandelbrot
Mystic Bears
RealCheeks

Toogeloo

Bell

Btw while I think your logic is sound, my list isn't quite the same as yours.
Bell is a hard-remove, and Toogeloo a soft-remove.

I'm not sure Mandelbrot is worthy of removal tho.

So if your theory has merit, it'd be:
{Mandelbrot, Mystic Bears, RealCheeks} to me as the pool for the strongman.

However, I'd prefer we hunt for the RB over the strongman. We can keep the strongman from having more shots by ensuring these three slots are not on the raid.

So, instead, we should focus on eliminating the scum roleblocker.

Given the three names probably do not contain the scum roleblocker, we're left with a pool for the scum roleblocker of:
{ArcAngel9,

Qrow and Raven

, Whemestar, Save The Dragons, Dwlee99, tictac, Tomorrow Corporation}.
It cannot be Tomorrow Corporation due to Titus tracking TC nowhere on a night we know the roleblocker acted.
If we throw in my townread, that leaves an effective roleblocker pool of:

{ArcAngel9, Whemestar, Save The Dragons, Dwlee99, tictac}.

Final Raid Group

1. Dwlee99
   
2. RealCheeks
   
3. Bell
   
4. Elsa Jay
   
5. SirCakez
   
   
6. Sakura Hana
   
7. Romance
   
8. tictac
   
9. Tomorrow Corporation

Speculating further, there is a high chance the scum roleblocker was not in this raid, because if the scum roleblocker

were

in the raid, there'd be no need for Elsa Jay to fail the raid. There can still be scum in the D2 raid, it just isn't the roleblocker. Since tictac and Dwlee were both in that raid, that leaves the roleblocker pool as precisely:
{ArcAngel9, Whemestar, Save The Dragons}.

In other words:

We have a 1/3 chance of eliminating the scum roleblocker by voting one of AA9, WhemeStar, or STD

.

I don't think STD is scum here and actually buy STD as town here.

So I genuinely think:

We effectively have a 50% chance of eliminating the roleblocker by eliminating one of ArcAngel9 or WhemeStar today.

Is my logic wrong, Sakura? Because if it's not, you should back me on eliminating AA9 or if not AA9, WhemeStar.

[mastina]

So if your theory has merit, it'd be:
{Mandelbrot, Mystic Bears, RealCheeks} to me as the pool for the strongman.

(Btw I genuinely don't know who the strongman would be. I can't tell. If it were just House I'd say it was Mandelbrot for sure of the three but Yume looks absurdly town. But I've liked both heads of Mystic Bears here. And RealCheeks doesn't really seem like scum. But I genuinely think that the strongman-is-on-the-D1-raid theory has merit and that it could only be one of the three meaning one of the hydras which looks town, isn't actually town.

I'm hoping, however, that we just win the game by eliminating the scum roleblocker and that we can find the scum strongman via an unroleblocked cop that scum can no longer kill. Which is why I think we should focus on eliminating the scum roleblocker. Which is why I think that we should eliminate one of {AA9, WhemeStar} today and if they don't flip scum roleblocker, flip the other on D5.)

[mastina]

Mastina can't be alive at YOLO if she's 3P, simple as that.

Fortunately, I am not 3p and cannot be 3p and can in fact ONLY be town because my role literally cannot be anything but town, but even if it weren't, scum would kill me well before 3p anyway. They'd have no choice.

Flavor outed her. Already explained.

You mean the flavor that Toogeloo said this to?

Meh... Not really. I mean, yeah, if the player doesn't want to play through the story. I think the nagging at the back of brain is would the WoL actually be in this game? FFXIV does have a generic WoL that is used in cinematics for the title screen and launch promos, and to be fair, the WoL is the primary driving force of the story since it's, well, the player. technically plausible since if there is any one character in the game that would actually succeed in raiding, it would be the player lol.

Honestly, I'm willing to just leave that all alone for now. I'm more than happy to Elim some easy PoEs today in either Wheme, ArcAngel, Mystic Bears, those kind of slots.

Mastina being 3P is tinfoil, even more so than Mafia aligned mastina. We aren't liming her unless we have exhausted Mafia scum options. Don't go diving down the rabbit hole yet people. We have plenty of scummy people out there to elim still.

Toogeloo, the person who is the most flavor-knowledgeable in the game?

Flavor didn't out me as 3p. Flavor outed me as

conftown

that is

one of the strongest town PRs in the game

. (Not the strongest, but among them.)

[mastina]

Also also, if she WAS NOT 3p, she wouldn't have gotten so bent over me mentioning it, saying that it's something "I had no business bringing up".

I would be hounding you regardless of who you accused of being 3p. It's not that you accused me of being 3p. It's that you brought up 3p in the first place. And to reiterate the point that you've

continued

to deflect:

I just genuinely think House's insistence on

hunting for 3p

is scummy as fuck because why the fuck would town hunt for 3p?

I am, explicitly, not groupscum--even if House

were

right about me being 3p (which he isn't, since my power is explicitly tied to me being town and fundamentally cannot come from a 3p which y'all would know if I fullclaimed which is, again, one of the reasons I don't want to), focusing on 3p is, and I want to reiterate this because House keeps deflecting: not hunting for groupscum. Yaknow: the thing

guaranteed

to exist and still be in the game?

Focusing on hunting (nonexistent, non-proven) 3p instead of focusing on hunting (proven to exist, certain to have 2-3 more members) groupscum.

I don't give a fuck about your loaded question.

What makes it loaded and not valid?

3p hunting is NOT scumhunting because scum are, explicitly, the scum faction.

So I repeat.

Which faction has more incentive to hunt for 3p?

Why are you focusing on hunting 3p instead of focusing on scum?

You backed off after a while, sure!

But why did you go there in the first place?

Why the FUCK did you decide to look for 3p instead of looking for scum when you know that, by the evidence, I am not scum?

You brought something up that you had no reason to bring up in the first place.

And you're

still

deflecting from my point:

But this is still a deflection from my point:

If mastina turns out to not be town, I'm thinking she's more likely to be solo scum than group scum.

I'm not advocating for her elimination based on unfounded suspicion. Just a possibility to keep in mind.

So...you want to...serial killer hunt now?

Hmm.

Wonder which faction benefits from hunting 3ps?

Wasn't it YOU, House, who said as much? (Could be mistaken but I seem to distinctly recall in a prior game you being very explicit that 3p hunting is a scumtell.)

Which faction has more incentive to hunt for 3ps?

Is it the town, when we know for a fact that there's still scum left in the game? At least two, and almost assuredly three?

I think not.

You've kept going, "3ps need to die".
You've kept going, "mastina is totally a 3p".
You've kept going, "but I'm not focusing on mastina at all right now and am willing to let it rest".

But none of that addresses my original point.

It is a KNOWN fact that there are at least two scum in the game (strongman, roleblocker) with a high probability of 3 total left.
It is NOT a known fact that there is 3p in the game as there is precisely one player who is saying there is a 3p in the game. That player's logic and reasoning for which, being a stretch that our flavor expert disagrees with them on. That player using moonlogic to justify a conclusion to cast shade on me.

So.

Which alignment has an incentive to hunt for the known threat of scum?
Which alignment has an incentive to hunt for nonproven nonscum-that-are-nontown?

[mastina]

You seem to have more motive for wanting her dead tho. Why is that?

Because having me as conftown makes the game harder for the scum so any way to make me not be conftown is a way to make the game easier for scum.

Literally has scum powers. Not a member of any town alliance/group. She's 3p through and through.

Uhh, you're wrong about mastina having scum powers. She can only fail a raid if she's part of the hostile faction. In which case she's not survivor, just scum.

This is not even a productive discussion.

Pointing out your consistent attempts to shade my townness and focus on 3p and how your viewpoint has logical flaws in it and your stance is contested by a flavor expert and so on and so forth is in fact a productive discussion.

It shows that your position comes from a point of malevolence in that it is a position you would have no reason to hold as town but have every reason to hold as scum.

First you tried selling me as being scum.
When that didn't work out you shifted to trying to sell me as 3p.
When even that didn't work out, you tried to distance from the whole thing by saying you aren't interested in pushing me anymore...
...But saying you're not interested in pushing me anymore doesn't change that you DID push me, both initially as scum and then when that didn't work out, as 3p. With a focus on 3p that town has no reason to have, but scum do.

Also if House was scum, then scum probably would've crafted better fake claims.

I mean, you'd

think

that, but...I have some personal experience for how that can fail to materialize.
(For those not in the know: I was THE player in that game with the most flavor knowledge of Chrono Trigger. What Toogeloo is to this game, I am to Chrono Trigger. I literally have near-encyclopedic knowledge of the game. I looked up facts about the game from multiple wikis, from official Chrono Trigger wikis to TVTropes. I literally have

streamed

me playing the entirety of the game, basically twice! And played it in recent times, thrice. With a total number of playthroughs numbering in the dozens, not counting having watched a few before.
Didn't stop me from being unable to stop atrocious fakeclaims from my scumbuddies.)

I realize that Mandelbrot isn't lockscum here. They have genuine reasons to be town. Yume looks town and I admit that House being knowledgeable about flavor reduces the odds of scum botching flavor-to-role-fakeclaims.

But they are in a very narrow pool of who could be the scum strongman, and both the other hydras have reasons to be town, and House's trajectory on me has been one that has a very VERY clear/obvious scum motive but lacks entirely anything resembling a town motive. Which is why, if you DID need to push come to shove force me to guess which of the 3 is scum I'd go Mandelbrots > Real Cheeks > Mystic Bears most to least.

[mastina]

OTH if AA9 is a scum roleblocker why isnt there more resistance? or is AA9 just indefensible?

I mean.

We have a good PoE for who the roleblocker is.

Who can defend AA9 without risking their towncred?

How can they justify defending AA9?

Obviously, the scum want the scum RB to live as long as possible.

But how do they do that without making themselves look like scum?

They can't defend the scum roleblocker if our PoE on who could be the roleblocker is correct.

So the only way they can defend the scum roleblocker is by trying to attempt to push us to eliminate someone outside the roleblocker PoE. Direct defense of the scum roleblocker if our PoE of the scum roleblocker is impossible.

(initially had this as a part of a separate post but said separate post is long and important enough that I want to post it solo, separate to this)

[mastina]

I have not bullied mastina one bit. Nor have I belittled her.

Calling it bullying/belittling may not be accurate words to describe it...but you

have

SHADED me, and you

have

PUSHED me:

Elsa is being so egregious today like “we got TC we got this!” and was like oh silly Mastina pushing me :/ and then Wheme jumped on like Yeah Mastina Claim Your Role!
And no one finds this weird?

Not really. Want me to tell you why? I've noticed... mastina thus far has claimed absolutely nothing that does not come inherent with the power of a red role pm.

You mean, after mastina does that thing scum can do?
Is this before or after she gets in the raid and does, y'know, that thing scum can do?

I'm trying to figure out why mastina is essentially claiming Mafia Janitor.

I don't get why people are buying mastina's claim wholesale.

Everything adds up just fine if she's scum.

Adding to her claim diminishes her read for me, but out the gate Day 1, Post 1 claim was a strong town tell. That being said, it's easy for a scum player to openly claim, "I can guarantee a raid's success," hence the reason her addendum to her role claim has me now raising my eyebrow.

Right? It's like she's angling to have almost as much sway over the events of the game as the moderator.

Then, you switched from calling me scum to calling me 3p:

If mastina turns out to not be town, I'm thinking she's more likely to be solo scum than group scum.
It would explain the abilities she has, and why she can legitimately hunt scum.
I'm not advocating for her elimination based on unfounded suspicion. Just a possibility to keep in mind.

Funny how every time we want something concrete from mastina, up comes another mysterious aspect to her power role.
Yet, nothing has actually been confirmed.

Being against Elsa doesn't mean you can't be solo scum. Solo scum tends to be pretty powerful to make up for their lack of buddies.
I remember a game with eyestott as a Survivor that town-sided as solo scum.

Right? It's like she's angling to have almost as much sway over the events of the game as the moderator.

Well, from a

certain

point of view...I do.

But obviously I've no reason to explain that.
(It's a technicality, more trivia than anything else.)

This post has solo scum all over it. Town doesn't get that much power over a game.

I'll tell you right now, you're never shaking my 3p read now that you've resorted to this bullshit, because now it's transparent how threatened you are about me bringing it up.

I intimidated you by bringing up 3P, and you couldn't even tell when I let it go. So, now it's back to stay.

Survivor all pissy about being outed.

All the NPC's have their specific agendas. The player character does whatever benefits them. Sounds like 3p to me.

Confession, it is good for the soul. Not so good for the body, though.
VOTE: mastina

Meh... Not really. I mean, yeah, if the player doesn't want to play through the story. I think the nagging at the back of brain is would the WoL actually be in this game? FFXIV does have a generic WoL that is used in cinematics for the title screen and launch promos, and to be fair, the WoL is the primary driving force of the story since it's, well, the player. Not either of the names I would have guessed mastina to pick, and she hasn't confirmed it either, but technically plausible since if there is any one character in the game that would actually succeed in raiding, it would be the player lol.

You're not following. All the NPC's, good and evil, have a set script. Things they HAVE TO DO. The warrior of light is unique in that they don't HAVE to do ANYTHING. The player can just spend their entire lives killing lv1 mobs outside the starting city, if they wish. The player is the quintessential third party in FFXIV lore.

Well glad we got that paranoia out of the way finally.

It just sucks that she's literally confirmed 3p.

Flavor outed her. Already explained. I also don't wait for group scum to give a full confession before I eliminate them.

Did Mastina claim 3rd party legit. Or was that just you being aggro.

Not aggro at all. The logic is sound. All of the NPC's have a set course of action. A script. The warrior of light (player character) does not. They can advance the storyline, or they can spend their whole life farming pelts in a starter zone. The warrior of light is literally the third party in FFXIV lore, just like the player character is the master of their own destiny in every FF game. I leveled Cecil to 50 on imps outside of Baron on one playthrough of FFIV back in the day (labeled as FF II, because original NA release). The warrior of light has no alliances outside of those he/she/etc chooses for themselves. Every NPC has an assigned alliance. Also also, if she WAS NOT 3p, she wouldn't have gotten so bent over me mentioning it, saying that it's something "I had no business bringing up".

@House, you only "outed" her if she is actually 3P.

She is, so.

Pushing someone who is town as 3p is

still

pushing to discredit them. It's a FACT that I am town. (It's currently known only to me and the mods, but it is nonetheless the truth. Nothing you can do or say will change that I am in fact town.) It's a FACT that you're pushing me as 3p, something that I am not. Nothing you can do or say erases the above.

However, something which is

veeeeeery

interesting about your callout of me being 3p:

As far as I'm concerned, hunting out whether a game is multiball is a scum concern. As far as town is concerned, if it's red it's dead.
Multiball just makes it easier for scum to blend in with town by hunting otherscum.
There's no pro-town reason to be speculating about multiball before there is an unexplained nk.
- House

There's plenty of reason for scum to speculate about multiball.

multiball hunting is plenty for me.

Hey House, how can you justify having said

THIS

, when you said all of the above?

(Btw during this iso I realized that House's defense of Elsa Jay is identical to House's defense of his scum partner the last time I saw him as scum, so...)

[mastina]

So on one hand you're saying she's scum because she knows H1/H2 role anyway (via elsa), and can choose to fail or succeed a raid. On the other hand you're saying she's 3p because but then she doesnt know H1/H2 role unless she has an ability to find out, and she cant fail a raid on her own.
So, which one is it?

This, again, would be why I genuinely think that Mandelbrot has a fairly high chance of being the scum strongman.

It's not a surefire thing because there

are

genuine reasons for the hydra to be town--Yume looks town, and scum that have claimed so far have shown poor flavor/role coordination when House is a flavor expert. But while those can make the slot be town, they're not surefire signs that make the slot impossible to be scum and both the other candidates

also

have reasons to be town meaning one of the slots with reasons to be town, isn't town, and House has fairly good reasons to be scum.

Why is this a topic of discussion anyway.

A lot of the discussion we've been having has felt like a way to distract us from eliminating the roleblocker, per my prior answer to your question as to why nobody is defending AA9.

The scum cannot defend AA9.

What the scum

can

do is try and rely on town's goldfish memory by distracting them with distraction after distraction after distraction by making the town go off on tangent after tangent that prevents them from eliminating AA9.

[mastina]

Also also, if she WAS NOT 3p, she wouldn't have gotten so bent over me mentioning it, saying that it's something "I had no business bringing up".

I would be hounding you regardless of who you accused of being 3p. It's not that you accused me of being 3p. It's that you brought up 3p in the first place. And to reiterate the point that you've

continued

to deflect:

I just genuinely think House's insistence on

hunting for 3p

is scummy as fuck because why the fuck would town hunt for 3p?

I am, explicitly, not groupscum--even if House

were

right about me being 3p (which he isn't, since my power is explicitly tied to me being town and fundamentally cannot come from a 3p which y'all would know if I fullclaimed which is, again, one of the reasons I don't want to), focusing on 3p is, and I want to reiterate this because House keeps deflecting: not hunting for groupscum. Yaknow: the thing

guaranteed

to exist and still be in the game?

Focusing on hunting (nonexistent, non-proven) 3p instead of focusing on hunting (proven to exist, certain to have 2-3 more members) groupscum.

I don't give a fuck about your loaded question.

What makes it loaded and not valid?

3p hunting is NOT scumhunting because scum are, explicitly, the scum faction.

So I repeat.

Which faction has more incentive to hunt for 3p?

Why are you focusing on hunting 3p instead of focusing on scum?

You backed off after a while, sure!

But why did you go there in the first place?

Why the FUCK did you decide to look for 3p instead of looking for scum when you know that, by the evidence, I am not scum?

You brought something up that you had no reason to bring up in the first place.

And you're

still

deflecting from my point:

But this is still a deflection from my point:

If mastina turns out to not be town, I'm thinking she's more likely to be solo scum than group scum.

I'm not advocating for her elimination based on unfounded suspicion. Just a possibility to keep in mind.

So...you want to...serial killer hunt now?

Hmm.

Wonder which faction benefits from hunting 3ps?

Wasn't it YOU, House, who said as much? (Could be mistaken but I seem to distinctly recall in a prior game you being very explicit that 3p hunting is a scumtell.)

Which faction has more incentive to hunt for 3ps?

Is it the town, when we know for a fact that there's still scum left in the game? At least two, and almost assuredly three?

I think not.

You've kept going, "3ps need to die".
You've kept going, "mastina is totally a 3p".
You've kept going, "but I'm not focusing on mastina at all right now and am willing to let it rest".

But none of that addresses my original point.

It is a KNOWN fact that there are at least two scum in the game (strongman, roleblocker) with a high probability of 3 total left.
It is NOT a known fact that there is 3p in the game as there is precisely one player who is saying there is a 3p in the game. That player's logic and reasoning for which, being a stretch that our flavor expert disagrees with them on. That player using moonlogic to justify a conclusion to cast shade on me.

So.

Which alignment has an incentive to hunt for the known threat of scum?
Which alignment has an incentive to hunt for nonproven nonscum-that-are-nontown?

You seem to have more motive for wanting her dead tho. Why is that?

Because having me as conftown makes the game harder for the scum so any way to make me not be conftown is a way to make the game easier for scum.

Literally has scum powers. Not a member of any town alliance/group. She's 3p through and through.

Uhh, you're wrong about mastina having scum powers. She can only fail a raid if she's part of the hostile faction. In which case she's not survivor, just scum.

This is not even a productive discussion.

Pointing out your consistent attempts to shade my townness and focus on 3p and how your viewpoint has logical flaws in it and your stance is contested by a flavor expert and so on and so forth is in fact a productive discussion.

It shows that your position comes from a point of malevolence in that it is a position you would have no reason to hold as town but have every reason to hold as scum.

First you tried selling me as being scum.
When that didn't work out you shifted to trying to sell me as 3p.
When even that didn't work out, you tried to distance from the whole thing by saying you aren't interested in pushing me anymore...
...But saying you're not interested in pushing me anymore doesn't change that you DID push me, both initially as scum and then when that didn't work out, as 3p. With a focus on 3p that town has no reason to have, but scum do.

Also if House was scum, then scum probably would've crafted better fake claims.

I mean, you'd

think

that, but...I have some personal experience for how that can fail to materialize.
(For those not in the know: I was THE player in that game with the most flavor knowledge of Chrono Trigger. What Toogeloo is to this game, I am to Chrono Trigger. I literally have near-encyclopedic knowledge of the game. I looked up facts about the game from multiple wikis, from official Chrono Trigger wikis to TVTropes. I literally have

streamed

me playing the entirety of the game, basically twice! And played it in recent times, thrice. With a total number of playthroughs numbering in the dozens, not counting having watched a few before.
Didn't stop me from being unable to stop atrocious fakeclaims from my scumbuddies.)

I realize that Mandelbrot isn't lockscum here. They have genuine reasons to be town. Yume looks town and I admit that House being knowledgeable about flavor reduces the odds of scum botching flavor-to-role-fakeclaims.

But they are in a very narrow pool of who could be the scum strongman, and both the other hydras have reasons to be town, and House's trajectory on me has been one that has a very VERY clear/obvious scum motive but lacks entirely anything resembling a town motive. Which is why, if you DID need to push come to shove force me to guess which of the 3 is scum I'd go Mandelbrots > Real Cheeks > Mystic Bears most to least.

I have not bullied mastina one bit. Nor have I belittled her.

Calling it bullying/belittling may not be accurate words to describe it...but you

have

SHADED me, and you

have

PUSHED me:

Elsa is being so egregious today like “we got TC we got this!” and was like oh silly Mastina pushing me :/ and then Wheme jumped on like Yeah Mastina Claim Your Role!
And no one finds this weird?

Not really. Want me to tell you why? I've noticed... mastina thus far has claimed absolutely nothing that does not come inherent with the power of a red role pm.

You mean, after mastina does that thing scum can do?
Is this before or after she gets in the raid and does, y'know, that thing scum can do?

I'm trying to figure out why mastina is essentially claiming Mafia Janitor.

I don't get why people are buying mastina's claim wholesale.

Everything adds up just fine if she's scum.

Adding to her claim diminishes her read for me, but out the gate Day 1, Post 1 claim was a strong town tell. That being said, it's easy for a scum player to openly claim, "I can guarantee a raid's success," hence the reason her addendum to her role claim has me now raising my eyebrow.

Right? It's like she's angling to have almost as much sway over the events of the game as the moderator.

Then, you switched from calling me scum to calling me 3p:

If mastina turns out to not be town, I'm thinking she's more likely to be solo scum than group scum.
It would explain the abilities she has, and why she can legitimately hunt scum.
I'm not advocating for her elimination based on unfounded suspicion. Just a possibility to keep in mind.

Funny how every time we want something concrete from mastina, up comes another mysterious aspect to her power role.
Yet, nothing has actually been confirmed.

Being against Elsa doesn't mean you can't be solo scum. Solo scum tends to be pretty powerful to make up for their lack of buddies.
I remember a game with eyestott as a Survivor that town-sided as solo scum.

Right? It's like she's angling to have almost as much sway over the events of the game as the moderator.

Well, from a

certain

point of view...I do.

But obviously I've no reason to explain that.
(It's a technicality, more trivia than anything else.)

This post has solo scum all over it. Town doesn't get that much power over a game.

I'll tell you right now, you're never shaking my 3p read now that you've resorted to this bullshit, because now it's transparent how threatened you are about me bringing it up.

I intimidated you by bringing up 3P, and you couldn't even tell when I let it go. So, now it's back to stay.

Survivor all pissy about being outed.

All the NPC's have their specific agendas. The player character does whatever benefits them. Sounds like 3p to me.

Confession, it is good for the soul. Not so good for the body, though.
VOTE: mastina

Meh... Not really. I mean, yeah, if the player doesn't want to play through the story. I think the nagging at the back of brain is would the WoL actually be in this game? FFXIV does have a generic WoL that is used in cinematics for the title screen and launch promos, and to be fair, the WoL is the primary driving force of the story since it's, well, the player. Not either of the names I would have guessed mastina to pick, and she hasn't confirmed it either, but technically plausible since if there is any one character in the game that would actually succeed in raiding, it would be the player lol.

You're not following. All the NPC's, good and evil, have a set script. Things they HAVE TO DO. The warrior of light is unique in that they don't HAVE to do ANYTHING. The player can just spend their entire lives killing lv1 mobs outside the starting city, if they wish. The player is the quintessential third party in FFXIV lore.

Well glad we got that paranoia out of the way finally.

It just sucks that she's literally confirmed 3p.

Flavor outed her. Already explained. I also don't wait for group scum to give a full confession before I eliminate them.

Did Mastina claim 3rd party legit. Or was that just you being aggro.

Not aggro at all. The logic is sound. All of the NPC's have a set course of action. A script. The warrior of light (player character) does not. They can advance the storyline, or they can spend their whole life farming pelts in a starter zone. The warrior of light is literally the third party in FFXIV lore, just like the player character is the master of their own destiny in every FF game. I leveled Cecil to 50 on imps outside of Baron on one playthrough of FFIV back in the day (labeled as FF II, because original NA release). The warrior of light has no alliances outside of those he/she/etc chooses for themselves. Every NPC has an assigned alliance. Also also, if she WAS NOT 3p, she wouldn't have gotten so bent over me mentioning it, saying that it's something "I had no business bringing up".

@House, you only "outed" her if she is actually 3P.

She is, so.

Pushing someone who is town as 3p is

still

pushing to discredit them. It's a FACT that I am town. (It's currently known only to me and the mods, but it is nonetheless the truth. Nothing you can do or say will change that I am in fact town.) It's a FACT that you're pushing me as 3p, something that I am not. Nothing you can do or say erases the above.

However, something which is

veeeeeery

interesting about your callout of me being 3p:

As far as I'm concerned, hunting out whether a game is multiball is a scum concern. As far as town is concerned, if it's red it's dead.
Multiball just makes it easier for scum to blend in with town by hunting otherscum.
There's no pro-town reason to be speculating about multiball before there is an unexplained nk.
- House

There's plenty of reason for scum to speculate about multiball.

multiball hunting is plenty for me.

Hey House, how can you justify having said

THIS

, when you said all of the above?

(Btw during this iso I realized that House's defense of Elsa Jay is identical to House's defense of his scum partner the last time I saw him as scum, so...)

Btw I want to pagetop this post because it's very important.

However, as much as I feel like pressuring House is important, I need to also pagetop-quote these:

So on one hand you're saying she's scum because she knows H1/H2 role anyway (via elsa), and can choose to fail or succeed a raid. On the other hand you're saying she's 3p because but then she doesnt know H1/H2 role unless she has an ability to find out, and she cant fail a raid on her own.
So, which one is it?

This, again, would be why I genuinely think that Mandelbrot has a fairly high chance of being the scum strongman.

It's not a surefire thing because there

are

genuine reasons for the hydra to be town--Yume looks town, and scum that have claimed so far have shown poor flavor/role coordination when House is a flavor expert. But while those can make the slot be town, they're not surefire signs that make the slot impossible to be scum and both the other candidates

also

have reasons to be town meaning one of the slots with reasons to be town, isn't town, and House has fairly good reasons to be scum.

Why is this a topic of discussion anyway.

A lot of the discussion we've been having has felt like a way to distract us from eliminating the roleblocker, per my prior answer to your question as to why nobody is defending AA9.

The scum cannot defend AA9.

What the scum

can

do is try and rely on town's goldfish memory by distracting them with distraction after distraction after distraction by making the town go off on tangent after tangent that prevents them from eliminating AA9.

OTH if AA9 is a scum roleblocker why isnt there more resistance? or is AA9 just indefensible?

I mean.

We have a good PoE for who the roleblocker is.

Who can defend AA9 without risking their towncred?

How can they justify defending AA9?

Obviously, the scum want the scum RB to live as long as possible.

But how do they do that without making themselves look like scum?

They can't defend the scum roleblocker if our PoE on who could be the roleblocker is correct.

So the only way they can defend the scum roleblocker is by trying to attempt to push us to eliminate someone outside the roleblocker PoE. Direct defense of the scum roleblocker if our PoE of the scum roleblocker is impossible.

(initially had this as a part of a separate post but said separate post is long and important enough that I want to post it solo, separate to this)

This was the first raid, im 90% sure the scum strongman was in it. If we eliminate EJ who is known to not be, and mastina who is also obviously not the strongman now we get

Mandelbrot
Mystic Bears
RealCheeks

Toogeloo

Bell

Btw while I think your logic is sound, my list isn't quite the same as yours.
Bell is a hard-remove, and Toogeloo a soft-remove.

I'm not sure Mandelbrot is worthy of removal tho.

So if your theory has merit, it'd be:
{Mandelbrot, Mystic Bears, RealCheeks} to me as the pool for the strongman.

However, I'd prefer we hunt for the RB over the strongman. We can keep the strongman from having more shots by ensuring these three slots are not on the raid.

So, instead, we should focus on eliminating the scum roleblocker.

Given the three names probably do not contain the scum roleblocker, we're left with a pool for the scum roleblocker of:
{ArcAngel9,

Qrow and Raven

, Whemestar, Save The Dragons, Dwlee99, tictac, Tomorrow Corporation}.
It cannot be Tomorrow Corporation due to Titus tracking TC nowhere on a night we know the roleblocker acted.
If we throw in my townread, that leaves an effective roleblocker pool of:

{ArcAngel9, Whemestar, Save The Dragons, Dwlee99, tictac}.

Final Raid Group

1. Dwlee99
   
2. RealCheeks
   
3. Bell
   
4. Elsa Jay
   
5. SirCakez
   
   
6. Sakura Hana
   
7. Romance
   
8. tictac
   
9. Tomorrow Corporation

Speculating further, there is a high chance the scum roleblocker was not in this raid, because if the scum roleblocker

were

in the raid, there'd be no need for Elsa Jay to fail the raid. There can still be scum in the D2 raid, it just isn't the roleblocker. Since tictac and Dwlee were both in that raid, that leaves the roleblocker pool as precisely:
{ArcAngel9, Whemestar, Save The Dragons}.

In other words:

We have a 1/3 chance of eliminating the scum roleblocker by voting one of AA9, WhemeStar, or STD

.

I don't think STD is scum here and actually buy STD as town here.

So I genuinely think:

We effectively have a 50% chance of eliminating the roleblocker by eliminating one of ArcAngel9 or WhemeStar today.

Is my logic wrong, Sakura? Because if it's not, you should back me on eliminating AA9 or if not AA9, WhemeStar.

In that while I think that Mandelbrot has a decent chance to be our scum strongman, but we should focus on eliminating the scum roleblocker today, and the scum roleblocker has a very high chance of being ArcAngel9.

[mastina]

Spoiler: Paranoia in the back of my head

What's bothering me about mastina is that she never actually claimed Hero of Light, she claimed

protagonist

and toog got baited into claiming the flavor for her.

I am, very explicitly, Warrior of Light (technically not called Hero of Light, it's called Warrior of Light in the role PM), an Eorzean [REDACTED - first role] 1x Raid Leader.

I thought it was pretty damn clear that I was pretty explicitly claiming that but

technically

speaking, you're right in that I hadn't

explicitly

claimed it verbatim. Consider this to be me having done so.

If your concern on me is only based on my flavorclaim/roleclaim though:

I'm suddenly getting paranoid about mastina =_=

Iso me, control-F "cakez".
Repeat this control-f, but with "Elsa" instead.

Then iso Elsa and control-f 'mas'.

There was literally NO player pushing Elsa harder than I was and if you think there was, you can fuck off because I was 100% the strongest pusher of Elsa being scum bar none. You can give

credit

for the Elsa elimination elsewhere as I was not the only reason Elsa was eliminated but while I may not own 100% credit for the elimination, I WAS the

strongest

pusher of that elimination.

So either I was hard-bussing or I'm not scum.

(Also this isn't my scum meta, so.)

If you think I'm scum by play go ahead and try your damned best to make a case of me being scum by play.

Because this is literally one of THE towniest games I've ever had and I'm MILES outside my scumrange and was THE biggest pusher for Elsa being scum (we would never have gotten an Elsa elimination if I hadn't been as avid as I was for us to not eliminate TC/tictac because the wagons on them would've always been bigger if not for me) and even a pusher of SirCakez being scum before the guilty.

If the entirety of your paranoia is based on me not fullclaiming my role?

Fuck

that.

I'll say this as many times as it takes.

[mastina]

It's not even a RPG. It's a hack & slash with spells.

Exactly.

I get that hack & slash games with spell mechanics have their fanbase, have their players, are fun to people who enjoy that sort of game. There's a whole genre of games like that, and a fair number of hugely successful games. A Persona5 spinoff game having it was in my opinion fine for instance, because it being a spinoff of the main game rather than a remake, it's acceptable to not copy the og game's mechanics because spinoffs are precisely the realm to have different game mechanics. (That said, I still have a gripe that the spinoff game is a sequel to Vanilla P5 and doesn't include Royal but I maintain hope that the spinoff gets an extended edition which includes the Royal content. But I digress.) And I believe most Yakuza games up until one of the most recent used that system? (Might be mistaken, but Yakuza was actually from my understanding an inverse, where it had a more 'active' combat system but in the more recent game turned it INTO the rpg combat system that's CT/FFesque.)

So like, I don't hate hack & slash games in principle, as I feel they fill a niche in the gaming market with high demand and decent supply. There's plenty of folks who like to play games of that type, and I respect that, and a game isn't bad just by being a game in that genre.

HOWEVER.

I just have zero interest in playing a hack & slash game.

And if you're going to shit on my childhood by turning one of my favorite games of my favorite combat system, into a game that uses my LEAST-favorite combat system.

I'm gonna take issue with that.

[mastina]

Mastina you have lost your scum reading charm btw.. You have never been anology person but more of a gut/feeling person. A huge change in your game claim.

I mean I still do gut reads, it's just that I'm much much better at extrapolating my gutreads into the reasons most of the time.

I still have some occasional reads that I can't explain my gut on, and they can be quite strong!

But I can now quite often explain what used to be a gutread but now I know how to identify it.

However.

I do admit I don't have a read on you.

It's unfortunate, but it IS genuinely PoE of the most important scum role in the game.

The identity of the scum roleblocker is a very very very small pool. If my townreads are correct, it could only be one of two players--and you are one of the two.

It really fucking sucks to be eliminated by PoE regardless of your alignment. Eliminated as town wrongly by PoE without an ability to argue against it; eliminated as scum by PoE instead of for being scum.

So I get it, it sucks.

But there is a genuine 50/50 here in my opinion between you and WhemeStar for who the scum roleblocker is.

If you don't want to be the elimination today, your efforts shouldn't be on trying to prove you are town;
Your efforts should be focused on proving that WhemeStar, rather than you, is the scum roleblocker.

I'm willing to listen there, I mostly defaulted to voting you over Wheme because there were already votes on you.

[mastina]

(Btw during this iso I realized that House's defense of Elsa Jay is identical to House's defense of his scum partner the last time I saw him as scum, so...)

For the record, the game in question was this; check it to see the defense of Norwee/NorwegianboyEE that game.

Compare that defense to House's defense of Elsa Jay this game.

It's not the type of thing you notice while it's happening, but it sticks out like a sore thumb in hindsight when you do an iso later on.

[mastina]

VOTE: Join Raid

Join Raid

VOTE: WhemeStar

Should be fairly obvious.

[mastina]

At this point i dont care much about the roleblocker and im resigned to the fact that maybe i should just play like a VT until we hit the roleblocker.

Well if you want to hit the roleblocker you shouldn't be voting RealCheeks as they cannot be the roleblocker.

Strongman? Sure, but as you said, roleblocker's bigger threat.

[mastina]

But if you're curious I healed mastina last night.

Probably a smart target as if we massclaim I'll not be long for the world.

Mastina can you please smack some fools in the head with her overwhelming logic?

Unfortunately, I don't have much to give.

Sakura Hana's logic about the strongman being among {RealCheeks, Mandelbrot, Mystic Bears} holds merit.

Mandelbrot could still be scum, but via their role, can almost assuredly not be the strongman. (As in, if they're scum, they're not the strongman and not the roleblocker, truthfully claiming their role.)

Which makes it a decent 1v1 between you and Mystic Bears for who is more town.

I WILL however say that hunting the presumably-unlimited roleblocker is better than hunting the used-shots strongman tho because the strongman has used their role and has nothing left to give the scum beyond being a scum body, whereas the scum roleblocker gives value to the scumteam every night they exist.

And if we don't continue to hunt for the roleblocker, then eliminating AA9 wrongly was all for naught. The entire point of that elimination was roleblocker-hunting within the limited POE. Switching to strongman hunting is the worst thing we could do.

[mastina]

Btw if we do massclaim today and turns out there's a role that actually would be in risk of being roleblocked over me, i'd happily go back to hunting for the roleblocker.

*raises hand*
I miiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight have been bullshitting about being RB-immune.
The rest of my claim, oh, absolutely not a lie, very much the truth through and through.
But being immune to being roleblocked?

No, that was a bluff to make sure the scum didn't.

[mastina]

Well I guess this is just wrong but I always thought Massy was crumbing PGO really hard so I tried to not throw any more SRs on her that way town investigatives wouldn't go to her. Anyways I guess that wasn't what was going on. Ok then.

Wait that actually might mean Mystic Bears is the scum strongman here...

[mastina]

What is the basis for the strongman PoE again?

Strongman is almost assuredly an X-shot role, most likely one-shot.
Mirio died N1 with Sakura Hana protecting the slot--a very high chance of being due to a N1 strongman because strongmen tend to burn their shots N1 AND the alternative requires the scum roleblocker to have gotten ABSURDLY lucky by targeting Sakura Hana with zero info on Sakura.

Titus died N3 while bulletproof, which is proof that she was strongman'd.

Ergo, there is a very high chance that there was a scum strongman on the D1 raid which gave them a second shot.

Final Raid Group

1. Momrangal
   
   
2. Romance
   
3. mastina
   
4. Mandelbrot
   
5. Mystic Bears
   
6. Elsa Jay
   
7. RealCheeks
   
8. Toogeloo
   
9. Bell

It cannot be {Romance, mastina, Elsa Jay, Mandelbrot} due to their flips/roles.
That leaves the possibilities as {Mystic Bears, RealCheeks, Toogeloo, Bell}.
Toogeloo has very strong reason to not be scum;
Bell is not scum because this is his towngame.

Ergo, we have a 50/50 for the scum strongman in {Mystic Bears, RealCheeks}.

However, we also had a similar basically-50/50 for the scum roleblocker which is why voting WhemeStar is better here.

[mastina]

@mastina & @Toogeloo since this may be our last night using our ability, would you like us to Neighborize you two? We would have done it before, but I didn't want to trigger paranoia and be forced to out earlier.

Sure, it'd allow me to fullclaim to ya two to get the info out.

[mastina]

If you’ve been paying attention the raids are repeating themselves in the exact same order, right? D1: X shot. D2: strongwilled D3: bp, D4: X shot. D5: strongwilled, so D6 will most likely be bp again, which means we absolutely should kill strongman because strongman is a bigger threat tomorrow. We don’t want a replay of what happened with Titus.

Does strongman gain a shot from a raid giving bulletproofs out?

I'd assume the answer to be 'no'.

So if the strongman used a shot N1 and N3, they should have none for N6.

Unless they were on the second refill raid...which we made composed of players specifically not on the first refill raid.

So the strongman CAN'T shoot the bulletproofs.

[mastina]

Gonna ISO mastina to confirm or she could answer it herself, but iirc she said she can auto succeed an incomplete raid? Which makes this process easier.

I can in fact auto-succeed an incomplete raid. I do have a shot left, so I could use it today or tomorrow, but not both (as I do in fact only have one shot).

[mastina]

As I've been saying all scum has to do is roleblock me and shoot wherever they want to shoot and they dont need the strongman for that.

Not if we kill the scum strongman today. Then they're forced to kill you since they can't kill your doc save, and they can't wait until tomorrow because you get BP tomorrow.

[mastina]

As I've been saying all scum has to do is roleblock me and shoot wherever they want to shoot and they dont need the strongman for that.

Not if we kill the scum strongman today. Then they're forced to kill you since they can't kill your doc save, and they can't wait until tomorrow because you get BP tomorrow.

*scum roleblocker

[mastina]

wanna sell me on your QR townread?

Sure.

Both heads are town by meta.

[mastina]

mastina how sure are you that STD is town?

I mean.

Not very.

I believe this to be STD's towngame but I'm not sure;
I believe STD's softclaim to be town-indicative but I'm not sure.

But if the choice is STD vs. WhemeStar, WhemeStar is more scum to me.

[mastina]

So you agree that there's a chance that Wheme isnt the roleblocker?

Sure.

I'd prefer if all of {STD, WhemeStar, Mystic Bears, RealCheeks} claimed today so that we could sort the strongman/roleblocker pools effectively.

But lacking them doing so, by default I'm gonna assume WhemeStar is the more likely scum roleblocker in that group.

[mastina]

Yo, at work, so can't deal with PMS and such, or really respond to stuff in the thread at all, but:
Y'all do realize that my guaranteed raid success is an active ability, right? Not a passive.
Meaning, that I have to activate it?
I've not done so, because I only have one shot of it left, and if tomorrow is the bulletproof, I REALLY wanna save the shot for tomorrow.

Meaning, I've yet to use it.
Meaning, that right now, an unfilled raid will fail.

Also, I've yet to get a link to the pt, meaning that I haven't had the chance to claim to Toog there.

[mastina]

VOTE: Join Raid
VOTE: Mystic Bears

At work, so can't explain properly until home, but I'm 99.99% sure that MB is scum here and like 75% sure std is the fifth.

If you want the details prior to this, including why it's not RC, you can ask Toog or Mandelbrot to paraphrase my posts there.

Also, can't submit a raid success until home, but I fully intend to once there.

[mastina]

I'm 100% convinced that mastina is town.

is this like 100% convinced normal mafia-speak, or mech convinced where we

actually

don't need the test anymore?

I don't think we needed the test in the first place. But to answer your question, I am convinced normal mafia-speak. The reason the raid was failed was answered in our linkshell, and I believe it.

I will indeed basically lay out everything that I said there, in here, once I am able to. But yeah, I just couldn't submit given work. (Speaking of which, gotta go after this post, sorry.)

[mastina]

What's your 25%

Honestly?

That the rb/strongman theory spec is wrong and that the last scum is just a player who isn't cleared by play. (I'm pretty damn sure that RealCheeks is just town here by play.)

Given MB scum and theoretically not-you as scum...

Toogeloo is cleared by play;
Mandelbrot is cleared by play;
Bell is cleared by play;
Qrow and Raven is pretty damn cleared by play;
RealCheeks is pretty damn cleared by play;

That leaves a not-cleared-by-play pool of {Dwlee99, tictac, Tomorrow Corporation}.
From there, Tomorrow Corporation would be the least likely due to being the name that scum tried to force through instead of Elsa Jay, so, to give the answer you're looking for,

The 25% remaining where you're not scum is like 20% Dwlee, 5% tictac.

But I still have the 75% on you being scum and once I give a dump of last night's note I will show why.

[mastina]

VOTE: RealCheeks

I might sheep this. She was also defending Mystic Bears.

Actually, not as much as you'd think. Will explain this in a bit.

What's the PoE, Panda?

Well, by the rb/strongman logic, it'd be precisely:
{RealCheeks, Mystic Bears} for the strongman and {RealCheeks, Mystic Bears, Save the Dragons} for the roleblocker.
And RealCheeks is basically hard-cleared by play ESPECIALLY with a Mystic Bears scumflip.

If we're going by slots being town by play, I'd say the pool is a bit wider, but not by much, per 5773;
With Toogeloo, Mandelbrot, Bell, Qrow and Raven, and RealCheeks all town by play, that leaves a POE pool of,
{Mystic Bears, Save the Dragons, Dwlee99, tictac, Tomorrow Corporation}.

(Again, getting caught up in the thread properly then will be posting the PT content.)

[mastina]

Why Mystic Bears is Scum

:

1:

Mechanical Speculation

(with a side of POE)

Mandelbrot's proven by role; they're not the scum strongman OR the scum roleblocker. With a third non-RB/Strongman scum role flip, this means they're flatout conftown. No "could be the scum role, in

theory

". They're just outright conftown.
Even if you happen to doubt my role-logic (you shouldn't, because it's literally occam's razor), there's plenty of play-based evidence. Titus lived in spite of having essentially claimed in the PT is one proof of Mandelbrot not being scum; the other is the scum's lack of good fakeclaims also gives credence to the slot being town.
And when you add together the role AND the play, there's fairly compelling reasons to be town both by play and by role.

Toogeloo is, by play, very damn strongly town. The scum wouldn't have botched their flavor claims with Toogeloo as scum almost assuredly, but even had they, Toogeloo's been instrumental in the death of scum in a way that makes Toogeloo just town here.

Bell is, by meta, essentially hard-cleared as town as this isn't Bell as scum.
Qrow and Raven are just as cleared as town for the same reason: Nancy can fake several parts of her towngame but I just don't think she's capable of doing what she's done this game as scum. Plus, Gamma Emerald looks rather town, playing more like I'd expect Gamma-town to in contrast to Gamma-scum.

Which leaves us with:
RealCheeks (RCEnigma + CheekyTeeky)
Save The Dragons
dwlee99
tictac
Mystic Bears (Noraa + Flea the Magician)
Tomorrow Corporation

6 players, to contain the strongman and the roleblocker.

D2 (strong-willed) Final Raid Group

1. Dwlee99
   
2. RealCheeks
   
3. Bell
   
4. Elsa Jay
   
5. Sakura Hana
   
6. Romance
   
7. tictac
   
8. Tomorrow Corporation

The scum roleblocker basically cannot be among these names, because if the scum roleblocker were among these names, there was no need to make the raid fail in the first place, and in fact, making it fail would be incredibly detrimental. Which means that the roleblocker cannot* be Dwlee99, tictac, or Tomorrow Corporation.
(*Granted, this is where the 25% on STD not being scum comes from; if Elsa made the raid fail in spite of how detrimental doing so was to the scum, Dwlee, tictac, and Tomorrow Corporation would all theoretically be possible to be scum.)

So the possibilities for the scum roleblocker are:
{Save the Dragons, RealCheeks, Mystic Bears}.
Per the town players being town by play, and the raid poe theory, that means one of those three MUST* be the scum roleblocker.
(*see above)

Then we get to Sakura's theory,

D1 (+1 shot) Final Raid Group

1. Momrangal
   
   
2. Romance
   
3. mastina
   
4. Mandelbrot
   
5. Mystic Bears
   
6. Elsa Jay
   
7. RealCheeks
   
8. Toogeloo
   
9. Bell

One of the players in this raid should be the strongman, as Sakura Hana's theory was that scum used a strongman shot on Mirio N1 and Titus N3 (the latter proven because Titus was bulletproof at the time and could not have died to anything BUT a strongman).
Given the names we know the alignment of in the above, that leaves the

theoretical

possibilities as:
{Mandelbrot, Mystic Bears, RealCheeks, Toogeloo, Bell}.

It's not Mandelbrot per the reasons I gave above, of Mandelbrot being conftown by both role AND play.
It's not Toogeloo per the reasons I gave above, of Toogeloo being instrumental in the town's victories thusfar.
It's not Bell per this being Bell's town meta.

Which means the strongman, if Sakura Hana's theory is correct, is precisely within {Mystic Bears, RealCheeks}; yes, this means that the strongman pool is identical to the scum roleblocker pool, just missing from it StD.

Initially, I thought that meant there was a decent chance that per the implications given, {Mystic Bears, RealCheeks} would be our precise scumteam.

However, then I did some extra digging. I'll cover that below, though, after I lay out more of the reasons why Mystic Bears is scum here.

2:

As Scum as Scum Interactions Get

Mystic Bears never voted ANY of {STD, RealCheeks, WhemeStar} yesterday. They defended both WhemeStar AND Elsa Jay. And it gets worse.
Mystic Bears has literally defended

all three

flipped scum.
On D1, I point you to this defense of SirCakez by Mystic Bears, followed by THIS defense of SirCakez made by Mystic Bears, followed by a THIRD defense of SirCakez made by Mystic Bears, with this fourth glorious borderline-TMI of a defense of Cakez by Mystic Bears.

Mystic Bears defended WhemeStar as early back as here, and while in the interim was always posting that Wheme was in the poe (see below for why that in of itself is a damning read progression), never voted Wheme, until eventually, for no reason, doubled down on WhemeStar being town when WhemeStar began to be threatened.

It's not as visible with a control-F of 'wheme', but the slot defended WhemeStar all of D5, too, which y'all should remember.

It gets juicier.

Here we get to Mystic Bears defending Elsa Jay. Mystic Bear's defense of Elsa Jay continues here. Mystic Bears continues to defend Elsa Jay here. And Mystic Bears actually backs that Elsa Jay defense up even. But you don't get stronger defense of scum than this in Mystic Bear's defense of Elsa Jay. But there's more; here's another Mystic Bears defense of Elsa Jay...
...Which also is a post that shows why the defense of WhemeStar is so scum-indicative--look at the treatment of WhemeStar when Elsa Jay was threatened and WhemeStar was under no threat, compared to the treatment of WhemeStar when WhemeStar was under threat (shown above) because we already eliminated Elsa Jay by that point. Here is another hard-defense of Elsa Jay from Mystic Bears that ALSO shows the treatment of WhemeStar before WhemeStar was under pressure (willingness to eliminate him), in contrast to how they treated him AFTER he was at risk of being eliminated (suddenly, inexplicably for no apparent reason, he's suddenly town, in a reversal of the prior read).

And more than that? Mystic Bears has also been voting for the

counterwagons

to the flipped scum. On D5, Mystic Bears didn't vote, but on D4, Mystic Bears voted AA9 instead of WhemeStar.
They also voted Mandelbrot instead of either STD or RealCheeks.
They voted Tomorrow Corporation instead of Elsa Jay.

This post basically feels like a confession, of being scum with both Elsa and Wheme. You might think "Noraa wouldn't do that", but actually, Noraa as scum can and has done precisely this before, admitting to being scum with scum in a way that frames it as being pseudo-sarcastic-eyerolley.

Which is a good segue into my next point:

3:

Noraa is in her scum meta.

This isn't one that I really have evidence to show as it's just the kind of thing that if you know, you know. If you are familiar with Noraa's scum meta, you should know that this is it.

4:

Bonus: SirCakez

I want you to take a good, long look at this post. Go ahead and TRY to tell me it's not SirCakez TMI-distancing/bussing the slot. (I'll cover more on SirCakez below.)

Given all of this.

Even if it weren't for the role POE. Even if you discarded all reads, all reasons for those roles.

I'd vote Mystic Bears just on merit of them being scum.

So whoever is their scum partner, I think they're just scum right now.

Why Save the Dragons is the Most Likely Scum Partner

:

1:

Why I think RealCheeks is town

RealCheeks is the opposite of Mystic Bears--whereas Mystic Bears defended all three scum, throughout RealCheeks's iso, RealCheeks has consistently pushed all three scum. Not just distancing, either--voting scum, even on days when scum wasn't eliminated, even when there were other viable town options to vote.

I will admit; RealCheeks did hard-locked Mystic Bears as town early and often. I'm a bit too lazy to get all the links there.
However, critically, unlike STD who had that read remain the same (see below for that)...by here, RealCheeks has started to sus out Mystic Bears. Which continued here.
While the read then goes back and forth with it being townish, they slide Mystic Bears back to maybe scum here. And have shown continuous willingness to vote there, even stating "go ahead and eliminate us, but after you do, immediately flip Mystic Bears".

If they're scum they basically for the entire game bussed their entire team. While it's not IMPOSSIBLE, bussing literally ALL FOUR partners seems incredibly improbable, and that's why I think RealCheeks is just town here, in spite of the strongman/rb poe being what it is.

2:

The 'secret' scum breadcrumb strat?

STD and Mystic Bears have breadcrumbed being a mystical town PR in basically the same exact way. I was too lazy to do the links to this, but both of them claimed PRs vaguely in a mystical fashion suggesting that they are some sort of town power role that absolutely shouldn't be forced to claim early.

Given how badly SirCakez and Elsa Jay botched their claims, this seems like a deliberate strategy to avoid claiming for as long as possible to make their claims be as good as they possibly can be.

3:

Defense of Scum

STD did defend Wheme back here. Admittedly STD voted Wheme yesterday, but STD had no mention of Cakez pre-guilty and defended Elsa the entire game. (I was too lazy to grab all the Elsa Jay defense links but y'all should remember this as Elsa Jay as town was one of STD's most insistent reads.)

If we take for a given that Mystic Bears is going to flip scum though (I realize this is speculative but seems pretty damn certain),
STD did defend Mystic Bears here.
STD was also defending Mystic Bears here.
This is an explanation of STD's defense of Mystic Bears.
STD called Flea (half of Mystic Bears) town early too.
And STD explained the townread on Mystic Bears here.
There's a mention of Mystic Bears being town here from STD too.
And there was another Mystic Bears-town here from STD.

So STD defended both Elsa hard and Mystic Bears hard. (Admittedly, this loses validity if MB doesn't flip scum but given how sure I am on MB being scum...)

All in all, STD has defended 1 of the flipped scum hardcore, 1 of the flipped scum softly, has zero mentions of the third flipped scum, and has hard-defended a suspected fourth scum.

In contrast, RealCheeks has attacked all three of the flipped scum, not just distancing but actively voting and strongly advocating for their deaths, while also having what appears to be a real actual organic read progression on the suspected fourth scum going from town to scum to town to scum in a way that isn't buddy-indicative to me.

4:

Bonus SirCakez

We've got the good ol' SirCakez bussing/distancing strat for evidence of this. STD was a last-minute addition to his scumreads. I called it out at the time as thinking STD-SirCakez there was scum-scum theater and I agree with past-me's reasons.

Notably, while Mystic Bears was absent from that later scum pool (thus was not SirCakez'd), I would like to again point out this earlier post I feel is damning.

So, uhhh...yeah. I legit think it might just be Mystic Bears + STD.

[mastina]

Also, sidenote, RE: raid failing yesterday:
I really couldn't have done anything more than what I did at the end of the day.

As-was, I barely fit in the post I did. I went to bed Sunday Night and when I did so, the raid was filled at the time.

I woke up on Monday and went to work.

I squeezed in enough reading to see that the raid wasn't filled--but work was really really busy for me so I barely had time to make 5652.

If people want to call me out for having not used my ability PRIOR to that, I made my preference as clear as I could: here I said I COULD use it, not that I HAD used it, and that I could only use it ONCE. While I didn't make it explicit here, I did HINT at it, in that I value the BP raid succeeding more. (Sure enough, I've submitted a guaranteed success for today's raid now that I'm at home.)

I didn't want to explicitly out if I was using my role or not, and I made that as clear as I could, especially on D4.

Admittedly, most of it came from posts the prior day phase and there's less there than I thought (I swear there's like two or three posts I SWORE I made during D5 that I couldn't find. I SWORE I claimed my shots; I SWORE I made my preference for BP success more clear prior to my last post; I SWORE I made something else along those lines, but couldn't find the posts in my iso for some reason), butstill, I NEVER said I was USING it yesterday. Anybody assuming I would, that's on THEM. Because I did NOT say I was going to use the guaranteed raid success. Not once did I. Because I wasn't planning to.

Guaranteeing the raid success is something that I, explicitly, needed to CONSENT to, via submitting the guaranteed raid success. You (collective you) didn't get my consent. I didn't submit an action that I had only one shot of, because I

didn't want to use it yesterday

and had at least hinted at not having wanted to use it that day.

Plus as an aside.

I'll take scum death for a failed raid anyway. It's still scum dead, and now we know precisely what the scum roles are. (Strongman, Roleblocker.) Strongman confirmed from Titus's death; Roleblocker confirmed from Romance being blocked N3. There should only be two scum and both scum should be POEable from the info we've managed together.

There really shouldn't be disagreement that scum self-hammering to make the raid fail is still a net-win for the town because it's still a scum dead that wasn't the strongman or the roleblocker meaning that we now know precisely what the scum roles are and via the raid rewards, we have a very good ability to POE the remaining scum.

[mastina]

Wait I'm scum because you think real cheeks is town and you think its impossible to have a role you dont want to claim and I said wheme might he town once?

Well, basically, at 75% certainty? Yes.

We have a good POE with solid logic and solid foundation for who the scum roleblocker is--there are precisely three slots that can be the roleblocker, and you are one of them.
We have a good POE with solid logic and solid foundation for who the scum strongman is--there are precisely two slots that can be the strongman, and they happen to be the exact same two slots who can be the roleblocker, aside from you.

With RealCheeks almost assuredly not being scum due to them being scum requiring them to have bussed their entire scumteam, and Mystic Bears as the scum strongman, by the roleblocker POE, that means you would be the scum roleblocker. (However, with only 2 scum left alive, killing the scum strongman means that the last scum, the roleblocker, cannot both kill AND block due to not being multitasking meaning we don't need to prioritize the RB anymore as one scum left alive is all we need. So because I'm 99.999% sure Mystic Bears is scum compared to 75% on you, I want to eliminate Mystic Bears first.)

The other logic is just bonus.
Your interactions with scum have been fairly damning and scum's interactions with you have been reasonably damning.

You're not lockscum, but 75% is about what I feel is an appropriate level to call you scum at, given the above.

[mastina]

I think your case on me is pretty weak

Doesn't need to be strong to still have a damn high chance of being right, given what we have.

Town POE is a real thing that is really deadly.

It is

theoretically

possible for Mandelbrot to be scum, in that it is

theoretically

possible that their proven role is only half of their role, and they have another role on top of their proven powers (that or the scum roleblocker and/or strongman are factional abilities). And that the two scum who tried to claim botched their claims in spite of House's flavor knowledge for whatever reason (which, hey, has happened before). THEORETICALLY. But

realistically

, Mandelbrot is just 99.9999% town here by KISS rules. Occam's razor applies; the simplest explanation is just that they are town.

It is

theoretically

possible for Toogeloo to be scum, in that it is

theoretically

possible that Toogeloo failed to impart his knowledge to SirCakez and Elsa Jay's fakeclaims leading to both of them botching their fakeclaims, and then Toogeloo decided that defending them was a lost cause and decided to get towncred from outing that their botched fakeclaims were in fact botched, and fake. But

realistically

, Toogeloo is just 99% town here by KISS rules. Occam's razor applies; the simplest explanation is just that they are town.

It is

theoretically

possible for Bell to be scum, for him to be having the best damn scumgame of his career, for him to know his town meta and manage to convincingly fake it across multiple day phases without having burnt out. However, realistically speaking, Bell is just not capable of the sustained effort required for what he has demonstrated in this game. So Bell is just 99% town here by KISS rules. Occam's razor applies; the simplest explanation is just that he is town.

It is

theoretically

possible for RealCheeks to be scum, in that it is

theoretically

possible that RealCheeks decided to bus their entire scumteam for basically the entirety of the game. However, given their organic read progression and overall thoughts, directions, contributions, and insistence on what they have pushed, they're like 90% town here; the more likely explanation is just that they're town.

It is

theoretically

possible for Qrow and Raven to be scum, in that it is

theoretically

possible that Nancy Drew is scum, that everyone thinking this is her town meta has things wrong, that what she has shown was in fact fakeable for her as scum, that her sustained effort (kinda sorta like Bell in that regard) and that her incredible emotions and huge amount of emotional play with impulsive thoughts and such, isn't in fact as town-indicative as it looks and is either NAI or just her managing to be that good at replicating her town meta. And then beyond that, it is definitely possible that the markers I'd expect of Gamma being town are wrong and that Gamma Emerald is actually just scum here playing quite well.
However, overall, town meta is town meta and the more people who are sure of this, the more confident I am that I am not wrong in this as well, so I'm at least 95% sure that I am not off-base in my read here.

So given that POE.

We've got the remainder as:
{Mystic Bears, Save the Dragons, Dwlee99, tictac, Tomorrow Corporation}.

2/5 of those names are basically guaranteed with odds so high as to be nigh-100%, scum.

I admit I did not thoroughly investigate Dwlee99, tictac, and Tomorrow Corporation as much as I wanted to.

Ideally

, I'd have investigated their interactions with flipped scum, flipped scum's interactions with them, and their interactions with my 99% scum and the 99% scum's interactions with them.

However, you still have a 40% chance of being scum just by POE, and if Mystic Bears flips scum, a 25% chance of being the last remaining scum...

...So the logic that points to you, while not necessarily strong, is strong

enough

given the POE being what it is.

[mastina]

I think the PoE by play reads I'm worried about the most are q&r and bell. Pretty sure the whole game will collapse if MB is town but at least we made friends along the way

For the record, didn't mention this in my case, but I did math it out last night.

We can afford to humor me, here, unless there actually

is

six scum. (Which, there shouldn't be. A game of this size shouldn't have more than 5 scum by playerlist size and Toogeloo our flavor expert has basically outright said there should be precisely 5 bad guys by flavor.) And even if there IS six scum, we don't lose the game outright (albeit admittedly, we're put in a tight spot).

We should be able to eliminate both Mystic Bears and STD (and then have some room to spare!), and just win the game outright.

We have 11 alive today. We eliminate {Mystic Bears, STD} today (preferably Mystic Bears), leaving 10 alive.
Given one kill a night, tomorrow, D7, we have 9 alive. We eliminate the other, leaving 8 alive.
And then scum kill in N7.

Come D8?

That's 7 alive--even if there's six total scum (leaving 3 alive) and even if neither MB nor STD are scum (which, both should be), we still don't lose the game.

Even in the ABSOLUTE WORST CASE SCENARIO where the logic behind the strongman AND the roleblocker are BOTH wrong and {STD, Mystic Bears} somehow contains 0 scum (in spite of, per my theory, it should contain both remaining scum), we can still afford to humor me and entertain my theory...

...Because even if both STD and Mystic Bears were to somehow flip town? We still have seven alive come D8.

And if folks don't trust my current RealCheeks townread and aren't worried about 6 scum with 3 scum left alive, they could eliminate you then safely and still end up in a worst-case-scenario of lylo in D9. (Granted, I'd prefer for them to trust my townread there, since I don't want you to be eliminated, butstill.)

[mastina]

Basically, I think that the game should go:
Mystic Bears-->Save the Dragons-->if the game's not over with a town win, look into {Dwlee99, tictac, Tomorrow Corporation} (you should be able to eliminate all 3 btw because 11 alive today, 9 alive after MB elimination, 7 alive after STD elimination, 5 alive after eliminating 1/3, 3 alive after eliminating 2/3, and in 3p lylo, eliminate the third), preferably in the order of Dwlee99 > tictac > Tomorrow Corporation.

After I inevitably die (I can't die tonight because I'm going to be bulletproof, but from N7 onward I've no protection), y'all are free to choose to reevaluate my reads if you REALLY think I'm wrong about my town POE, but this is what I think we should do right now.

[mastina]

(Btw another reason I think Mystic Bears is scum: unironically, I feel like basically any scumteam in this game would've had incentive to kill me. Maybe, MAYBE not N1, but every night after that, I should've been a possibility.

...Unless scum, via having a scum bodyguard, were worried that I was a PGO, and by the time they realized I wasn't, they had higher-priority MUST-kills to make first.)

[mastina]

(Btw another reason I think Mystic Bears is scum: unironically, I feel like basically any scumteam in this game would've had incentive to kill me. Maybe, MAYBE not N1, but every night after that, I should've been a possibility.

...Unless scum, via having a scum bodyguard, were worried that I was a PGO, and by the time they realized I wasn't, they had higher-priority MUST-kills to make first.)

To elaborate on this:

Nancy Drew is

terrified

of me when she's scum.
You might think, "but mastina, aren't you townreading her? If she's scum, isn't that enough to keep you alive?"
Well that's the thing.
At the beginning of the game...I wasn't.
I later moved them up to here, but I wasn't townreading them even there.
Even after I moved them up to here, I still wasn't locktowning them.
That was actually my last readslist of the day, even though I later said they were unlikely scum.

Does Nancy, who is TERRIFIED of me when she's scum, not strongman me N1 when she KNOWS I was suspicious of her play and she KNOWS that she can't keep up the townness the entire game?

I think not. She'd be pushing for my death pretty damn heavily.

Does either of {Mandelbrot, Toogeloo} leave me alive if they were scum?
Well Mandelbrot has House who knows I'm inclined to scumread him nowadays and Yume who is TERRIFIED of me when she's scum, and Toogeloo similarly knows that I tend to scumread them regardless of their alignment. So I shouldn't live with either of those slots as scum.

How about Dwlee99? Probably not, as Dwlee has had personal experience with what leaving me alive for too long has done to them as scum. They've directly lost games they could have won, specifically because they

almost

nightkilled me early, but ultimately chose not to. I'd like to think that Dwlee, if scum, has learned from their mistakes and would not repeat the same mistake again and would advocate for my death.

STD?
It took me until, what, D4 to not scumread STD? I was pushing STD as a SirCakez scumbuddy even before D2's guilty on SirCakez. While STD might not have the same respect for me as the other scummers, the fact that I was scumreading STD for the majority of the game certainly lends credence to the idea that STD wouldn't justify leaving me alive.

The list of people who don't have reason to nightkill me is then narrowed down to:
{Bell, tictac, Tomorrow Corporation, Mystic Bears}.
Keep in mind also that the known dead and flipped scum could also be calling for my head. It'd take a remaining scum

overriding

the dead scum to not kill me early here.

Bell tends to just go with the flow of the scumteam--he would not be the one to override SirCakez/Elsa/Wheme/etc. on nightkilling me. So we can safely remove him.

Meaning there's precisely three players who wouldn't nightkill me early on:
{tictac, Tomorrow Corporation, Mystic Bears}.

Mystic Bears, both because Flea likes to play with me and can often subvert my efforts, and because Noraa thought I was a PGO role (which would thus, be a bad nightkill).

[mastina]

(Btw another reason I think Mystic Bears is scum: unironically, I feel like basically any scumteam in this game would've had incentive to kill me. Maybe, MAYBE not N1, but every night after that, I should've been a possibility.

...Unless scum, via having a scum bodyguard, were worried that I was a PGO, and by the time they realized I wasn't, they had higher-priority MUST-kills to make first.)

To elaborate on this:

Nancy Drew is

terrified

of me when she's scum.
You might think, "but mastina, aren't you townreading her? If she's scum, isn't that enough to keep you alive?"
Well that's the thing.
At the beginning of the game...I wasn't.
I later moved them up to here, but I wasn't townreading them even there.
Even after I moved them up to here, I still wasn't locktowning them.
That was actually my last readslist of the day, even though I later said they were unlikely scum.

Does Nancy, who is TERRIFIED of me when she's scum, not strongman me N1 when she KNOWS I was suspicious of her play and she KNOWS that she can't keep up the townness the entire game?

I think not. She'd be pushing for my death pretty damn heavily.

Does either of {Mandelbrot, Toogeloo} leave me alive if they were scum?
Well Mandelbrot has House who knows I'm inclined to scumread him nowadays and Yume who is TERRIFIED of me when she's scum, and Toogeloo similarly knows that I tend to scumread them regardless of their alignment. So I shouldn't live with either of those slots as scum.

How about Dwlee99? Probably not, as Dwlee has had personal experience with what leaving me alive for too long has done to them as scum. They've directly lost games they could have won, specifically because they

almost

nightkilled me early, but ultimately chose not to. I'd like to think that Dwlee, if scum, has learned from their mistakes and would not repeat the same mistake again and would advocate for my death.

STD?
It took me until, what, D4 to not scumread STD? I was pushing STD as a SirCakez scumbuddy even before D2's guilty on SirCakez. While STD might not have the same respect for me as the other scummers, the fact that I was scumreading STD for the majority of the game certainly lends credence to the idea that STD wouldn't justify leaving me alive.

The list of people who don't have reason to nightkill me is then narrowed down to:
{Bell, tictac, Tomorrow Corporation, Mystic Bears}.
Keep in mind also that the known dead and flipped scum could also be calling for my head. It'd take a remaining scum

overriding

the dead scum to not kill me early here.

Bell tends to just go with the flow of the scumteam--he would not be the one to override SirCakez/Elsa/Wheme/etc. on nightkilling me. So we can safely remove him.

Meaning there's precisely three players who wouldn't nightkill me early on:
{tictac, Tomorrow Corporation, Mystic Bears}.

Mystic Bears, both because Flea likes to play with me and can often subvert my efforts, and because Noraa thought I was a PGO role (which would thus, be a bad nightkill).

May as well pagetop this but I'd like to remind you that the real case is in my prior pagetop; 5775.

[mastina]

who are all the folks who agree w you about QR? I must have missed them.

I don't remember, honestly.

And what's up with that?

There's no contradiction in being unable to submit due to being at work and really not wanting to submit anyway. The two augment each other, not contradict each other. I didn't want to submit the guaranteed success yesterday, but I also COULDN'T even if I did want to (which I didn't).

So um...there are some contradictions we've noticed concerning mastina. Like this one

Yume you have access to the PT where I made the thoughts originally. It's partially an oversight on my part, partially an accounting error in translating the case from the PT to the thread, because originally I wasn't sure RealCheeks was town and actually thought RealCheeks was scum but you should have access to the reasons which make me think town and not want to not eliminate there. (As a refresher, that'd be 11.)

I don't think RealCheeks is scum now; RealCheeks isn't in my pool at all.

(Btw another reason I think Mystic Bears is scum: unironically, I feel like basically any scumteam in this game would've had incentive to kill me. Maybe, MAYBE not N1, but every night after that, I should've been a possibility.
[...]
The list of people who don't have reason to nightkill me is then narrowed down to:
{Bell, tictac, Tomorrow Corporation, Mystic Bears}.
Keep in mind also that the known dead and flipped scum could also be calling for my head. It'd take a remaining scum

overriding

the dead scum to not kill me early here.

Bell tends to just go with the flow of the scumteam--he would not be the one to override SirCakez/Elsa/Wheme/etc. on nightkilling me. So we can safely remove him.

Meaning there's precisely three players who wouldn't nightkill me early on:
{tictac, Tomorrow Corporation, Mystic Bears}.

Mystic Bears, both because Flea likes to play with me and can often subvert my efforts, and because Noraa thought I was a PGO role (which would thus, be a bad nightkill).

Eh, boring.
Regarding me, yea I don't kill you N1 in most cases, because I'm reasonably sure I can stay out of your PoE and EC Mafia was beautiful but has probably left you a little paranoid around me. If I can't stay out of your PoE then I absolutely have to NK you because you will find me and bust me. While I am able to subvert your efforts on occasion, it doesn't happen nearly as much as you'd think.

If as scum I have no input in the NK, then I'm either scum with people who are disregarding my input (unwnds harbinger game) which is a lot of potential associatives from D1 - or - this is my slankiest game ever as an alignment we both know I love to play.

So there's actually something very important about this, and it's not obvious on a glance.

Read Mystic Bears's 5817.

Notice something?

It's quoting,

what it is quoting

"In post 5797, mastina"

Why's that important?

Because THIS is 5797:

(Btw another reason I think Mystic Bears is scum: unironically, I feel like basically any scumteam in this game would've had incentive to kill me. Maybe, MAYBE not N1, but every night after that, I should've been a possibility.

...Unless scum, via having a scum bodyguard, were worried that I was a PGO, and by the time they realized I wasn't, they had higher-priority MUST-kills to make first.)

Notice something about the difference between Mystic Bears's quoted 5797 and the actual 5797?

You should; they aren't the same.

What Flea (the Mystic Bears head who wrote this) is

actually

quoting, is either 5799 or, far more likely, my immediate pagetop requote of that, 5800.

When you quote a post that has multiple quotes, it's quite easy to keep the contents of the later post but have the quote link be from the earlier post.

Why's this important?

Because it means that it was edited to leave out the fact that it was quoting a later post.

Why do I think that's so important?

Well let's go quote my 5800 and have a certain line from it be highlighted:

(Btw another reason I think Mystic Bears is scum: unironically, I feel like basically any scumteam in this game would've had incentive to kill me. Maybe, MAYBE not N1, but every night after that, I should've been a possibility.

...Unless scum, via having a scum bodyguard, were worried that I was a PGO, and by the time they realized I wasn't, they had higher-priority MUST-kills to make first.)

To elaborate on this:

Nancy Drew is

terrified

of me when she's scum.
You might think, "but mastina, aren't you townreading her? If she's scum, isn't that enough to keep you alive?"
Well that's the thing.
At the beginning of the game...I wasn't.
I later moved them up to here, but I wasn't townreading them even there.
Even after I moved them up to here, I still wasn't locktowning them.
That was actually my last readslist of the day, even though I later said they were unlikely scum.

Does Nancy, who is TERRIFIED of me when she's scum, not strongman me N1 when she KNOWS I was suspicious of her play and she KNOWS that she can't keep up the townness the entire game?

I think not. She'd be pushing for my death pretty damn heavily.

Does either of {Mandelbrot, Toogeloo} leave me alive if they were scum?
Well Mandelbrot has House who knows I'm inclined to scumread him nowadays and Yume who is TERRIFIED of me when she's scum, and Toogeloo similarly knows that I tend to scumread them regardless of their alignment. So I shouldn't live with either of those slots as scum.

How about Dwlee99? Probably not, as Dwlee has had personal experience with what leaving me alive for too long has done to them as scum. They've directly lost games they could have won, specifically because they

almost

nightkilled me early, but ultimately chose not to. I'd like to think that Dwlee, if scum, has learned from their mistakes and would not repeat the same mistake again and would advocate for my death.

STD?
It took me until, what, D4 to not scumread STD? I was pushing STD as a SirCakez scumbuddy even before D2's guilty on SirCakez. While STD might not have the same respect for me as the other scummers, the fact that I was scumreading STD for the majority of the game certainly lends credence to the idea that STD wouldn't justify leaving me alive.

The list of people who don't have reason to nightkill me is then narrowed down to:
{Bell, tictac, Tomorrow Corporation, Mystic Bears}.
Keep in mind also that the known dead and flipped scum could also be calling for my head. It'd take a remaining scum

overriding

the dead scum to not kill me early here.

Bell tends to just go with the flow of the scumteam--he would not be the one to override SirCakez/Elsa/Wheme/etc. on nightkilling me. So we can safely remove him.

Meaning there's precisely three players who wouldn't nightkill me early on:
{tictac, Tomorrow Corporation, Mystic Bears}.

Mystic Bears, both because Flea likes to play with me and can often subvert my efforts, and because Noraa thought I was a PGO role (which would thus, be a bad nightkill).

May as well pagetop this but

I'd like to remind you that the real case is in my prior pagetop; 5775.

If this is the post Flea quoted, as I suspect, and Flea edited the post into what you see in 5817, then that means that Flea not acknowledging the

actual

case is deliberately malevolent on faer part.

[mastina]

I think rb may possibly have been an X shot because why wouldn’t you have been roleblocked?

Why would I be roleblocked?

Especially if scum thought I was a PGO, they wouldn't roleblock or kill me.

I claimed previously that I was RB-immune. That was a fib on my part, but scum wouldn't know until I said as much yesterday.

Literally the first night they could've roleblocked me is last night, but I don't have a way of knowing if they did or not at this very moment. (That said, I DO have a need to ask the mod a question, one my dummy dum dum self should've asked a long time ago but neglected to do until just now.)

Do you really think I'd let myself be caught mechanically?

At the time, no!
You'd not let yourself be immediately caught by mechanics.
Inadvertently not realizing the town could POE things down the line?

That's not something ANY scum player, no matter HOW mechanically-gifted they are, can avoid.

If you THINK you're mechanically safe, but it later turns out you're not, I don't care how good you think you are at mechanics. Both heads of Reasonably Rational, Jingle, other mechanical-gods, geniuses of mechanics and manipulating them as scum. NOBODY is immune to getting caught down the line for making a play they initially thought they couldn't get caught from.

Plus, to some extent, it's also something not fully under your control, as other scum enter into the picture with what they did. You can control your own mechanical position; you can suggest positions for your scumbuddies, but scumbuddies ultimately do not necessarily listen to your advice, and thus, no amount of mechanical prowess on your part can prevent the combination of misplays from scumbuddies and later town POE information from catching what was originally a safe play and then becoming caught mechanically.

However, it's not even a surefire thing that scum did not do what you wanted. It's possible they didn't act as you asked, but it's also possible they

did

, and you just didn't account for

every

variable. You're not omnipotent. No mechanics-oriented player is. They can coordinate what they

think

to be the optimal play is, and then end up later proven wrong, only realizing they made a mistake in hindsight.

do you really think I'd hang around in a game again when I'm getting mechanically screwed by my team?

For multiple reasons? Yes. You're not going to bail on Noraa here, and it wasn't until basically today that you were mechanically caught. You would have no reason to have bailed previously and even had you, Noraa is enough reason to have talked you out of it, thinking it was salvageable. Because it is.

Plus, beyond that, there's a matter of sportsmanship.

It's generally considered poor form to replace out of a game as one of the last scum when you are likely to go down sooner rather than later--you know this, Flea, so why WOULD you replace out? You have literally every reason NOT to.

Do you really think me and Noraa would be so... Naive? as to just openwolf and guard like that?

Explicitly so, yes.

[mastina]

Mastina. Thoughts on this?

I mean the other half of my role is pretty damn clearing in of itself so I don't feel the need to clear myself from making an undersized raid succeed. (And Mandelbrot and Toog both saw my fullclaim so can vouch for that.)

But while I don't think my role needs to be proven, I really don't care--I'm making the raid succeed, and with the scum (presumably) out of strongman shots, that limits their kill pool.

So I don't care one way or another. Undersized raid proves me but scum can't kill me due to my BP until N7; full raid doesn't prove me but scum's kill pool is even smaller. Doesn't really matter to me, one way or another, because I've done my job regardless.

[mastina]

MOD: Letting y'all know that I'll be severely V/LA on Saturday/Sunday

Saturday = double staff meeting, then driving home, straight to bed, because Sunday = opening guard shift so my weekend is dedicated to working.

[mastina]

Btw I don't have the time/energy to read the thread properly right now (depending on work, that'll have to wait until Sunday at earliest, maybe even later, potentially Monday or even Tuesday (depends on work, schedule, how much it takes out of me, etc.).

If the day hasn't ended before then, I intend to read/respond to things properly, although as far as I'm concerned, I don't really see any

need

for the day to keep going, at least on

my

end. (I've submitted the guaranteed raid success, I laid out my reasons for my reads, so I've said everything I set out to say. Meaning, the day continuing would explicitly be due to others needing it due to them wanting to say more. I've said what I set out to say, but I'm not the entirety of the town. I think I'm explaining this concept well enough for you to get my meaning here; basically, you don't need to keep the day going on behalf of me but if you have reasons to not end the day yourself, obviously, I'm also not in any particular rush so can wait until you're ready.)

That said, I DID do something I wanted to; a brief iso control-f of tictac and Tomorrow Corporation.
While I'm not sure on the chronology RE: Cakez (it may have been on D2 invalidating this, meaning I need to check timestamps there when putting more work in), I

did

notice that Tomorrow Corporation, like RealCheeks, has pushed all three scum. Not as strongly as RealCheeks in most cases, but it's present. Plus, TC was pushed as the counterwagon to Elsa Jay.

tictac's record is comparably less than stellar. tictac hard-defended WhemeStar and also was a defender of SirCakez on D1 prior to the guilty, but admittedly, tictac

did

push Elsa Jay fairly strongly. (Plus, was another of the counterwagons to Elsa Jay, albeit not as popular as the TC one.) Additionally, if, as I suspect, MB is scum, tictac's interactions loosely suggest not scum-scum there (albeit not locked as definitive, they are at least probable in being not scum-scum), tho obviously that relies on an MB scumflip.

When it comes to Dwlee's interactions, which I am reading now, the Cakez interactions don't look to me to be scum, but plausibly still could be so can't clear them from that. Their Wheme vote early however is at least promising, being an early pusher of Wheme as scum. Not really much with Elsa, but the WhemeStar push is at least enough to be somewhat promising. (This, on top of the other reasons for the slot to be town; see also, Dwlee-Titus 'hood N1.) If, as I suspect, MB is scum, Dwlee's interactions there are less than stellar, tho obviously that relies on an MB scumflip.


Basically, when it comes to towniness from the non-STD/Mystic Bears slots (without taking into account roles or meta), I'd go, most town to least town:

Tomorrow Corporation

>

RealCheeks >>>> Dwlee99

>

tictac.

Bonus iso control-f of Qrow/Raven; they have some fairly good suspicion of SirCakez prior to D2. As in, were one of the only slots to VOTE SirCakez on D1. And not as a temporary thing; he was their main vote for the majority of that day phase. It was mostly Gamma, but even Nancy held suspicion of the slot. The Elsa Jay interactions, while not hard-pushing, look organic and not buddy-buddy (their interaction with Elsa is in some ways similar to RealCheeks's interactions with Mystic Bears to me). The read did shift into more of a scumread later, which is promising.

Admittedly, the slot does have a stain in defending Wheme, but the Wheme defense actually looks town to me in a way that doesn't look like scum defending a scumbuddy but more like town defending a "I know this isn't objective and isn't really gut but I feel like it" type of defense. They also show some read progression there, which is promising. The original townread shifted into a "something seems

off

" read, showing a progression towards scumreading the slot. (As for Mystic Bears, similarly has a bit of a read progression there that doesn't really look scum scum.)

In the scale above, I'd rate them at ~RealCheeks' level without meta, and above Tomorrow Corporation with meta, in that their play just does NOT fit with a scumbuddy.

So like.

Towniest to scummiest in the non-STD/MB names, we get:
Qrow and Raven >> Tomorrow Corporation

>

RealCheeks >>>> Dwlee99

>

tictac.

Extra Extra Bonus: Bell control-f for Cakez and Elsa reveals he was immediately suspicious of both slots on D1. As in, didn't like SirCakez, was suspicious of him, and HARD-pushed Elsa. He even called out the (correct) potential for them to be scum-scum. The only times he backed off of one was when he switched to pushing the other. A bit later, he also was a pusher of WhemeStar. And one of the strongest ones at that. So like, even if he weren't town by meta (which he is), he's pushed all three scum in the game.

So like.

Towniest to scummiest in the non-STD/MB names, we get:
Bell

>

Qrow and Raven >> Tomorrow Corporation

>

RealCheeks >>>> Dwlee99

>

tictac.

(Prolly going to bed now so no iso of Toog/Mandelbrot here for the control-f of dead scum, and I'm too tired to add links so y'all can see what I just did the work on yourselves, but suffice to say, I DO think it's just MB and STD here because I just think everyone else has more reason to be town. Some by play, some by meta, some by role, some by 2-3 of these combined. Whereas Mystic Bears and MB both have reason to be scum by play, by meta if I am correct, and by role if I am correct.)

[mastina]

I have some truly groundbreaking news!

…I'm fairly certain that RealCheeks is town!






(Okay so this is obviously in jest given that they were night kill ed, but. It still IS actually important given that Toogeloo was suspicious of RC last night. So, IMO, an RC niggtkill here is actually big news, in that it basically hardclears Toog AND Mandelbrot. Just in case y'all wanted to get paranoid about them.)
VOTE: Join Raid
VOTE: Save the Dragons

This should just end the game tho.

I'm three for three in killing scum; can you trust me on one more, please?

[mastina]

BTW, Toog, I do have a theory Re: your concern, but I want to wait on outting my theory until after STD inevitably fakeclaims.

[mastina]

Oh right, yeah. Question to all of you. Why aren’t you scum this game?

TC, tracked nowhere on a night we know had a roleblock.
Mandelbrot, confirmed not a roleblocker.
Me, have contributed to every scum death + am way out of my scum range + my fullclaim (Which Toog and Mandelbrot can vouch for).
You, for meta + contributing to every scum death.
Dwlee, for contributing to some scum death + N1 pt with Titus + being on the D2 raid which Elsa failed (may need to double check that, am mobile phoneposting at work, so working off of memory here)
Toogeloo, for contributing to every scum death + PT knowledge.
Qrow/Raven, for contributing to most scum deaths + both heads in their town meta (maybe more, too, but need to not be phoneposting).

I'm probably missing more than Tictac and std here, but again, phoneposting, so this is what I got off the top of my head.

[mastina]

Minfilia

i'm a beloved princess who roleblocks town when killed
i'm also an enabler of day access for private topics

you know

something i didn't really want to claim unless i absolutely had to
something i really wanted to get BP for so scum wouldn't lolkill me and fuck people over
something i didn't need strongman or an extra shot for so i stayed off those raids

So, House, this is a a scumclaim, right? As in STD should be lockscum to you, right?

[mastina]

Minfilia

i'm a beloved princess who roleblocks town when killed
i'm also an enabler of day access for private topics

you know

something i didn't really want to claim unless i absolutely had to
something i really wanted to get BP for so scum wouldn't lolkill me and fuck people over
something i didn't need strongman or an extra shot for so i stayed off those raids

So, House, this is a a scumclaim, right? As in STD should be lockscum to you, right?

Minfilia is a pretty important Scion. That would be an odd fake claim.

The role actually adds up to me, but as I've said before, it's been years since I've played.

I defer to Toog on this because he's been pretty accurate in his analysis on flavor.

- House

Okay, let me put it to you this way, House:
How many private topics in this game do you know of which have daytalk?
STD claims to enable day access to private topics.

But the pts you create lock once day starts

Your role's function serves as direct proof that std is fakeclaiming.
I've more. But phone about to die.

[mastina]

Minfilia

i'm a beloved princess who roleblocks town when killed
i'm also an enabler of day access for private topics

you know

something i didn't really want to claim unless i absolutely had to
something i really wanted to get BP for so scum wouldn't lolkill me and fuck people over
something i didn't need strongman or an extra shot for so i stayed off those raids

So, House, this is a a scumclaim, right? As in STD should be lockscum to you, right?

Minfilia is a pretty important Scion. That would be an odd fake claim.

The role actually adds up to me, but as I've said before, it's been years since I've played.

I defer to Toog on this because he's been pretty accurate in his analysis on flavor.

- House

Okay, let me put it to you this way, House:
How many private topics in this game do you know of which have daytalk?
STD claims to enable day access to private topics.

But the pts you create lock once day starts

Your role's function serves as direct proof that std is fakeclaiming.
I've more. But phone about to die.

[mastina]

I don't believe STD's Claim is town Because

:

1

:

The role itself

We are a

Modified Temporary Neighborizer Listener

. We submit 2 players to be Neighborized during the day, and we can read the PT but not participate in it.

i'm also an enabler of day access for private topics

Save the Dragons claimed that he is a daytalk-enabler for private topics.

The problem with that is that STD's claim provably does not interact with any of the town's roles. The PTs created by Mandelbrot get locked on daystart. This may be due to the wording on Mandelbrot's role, so only they'd be able to know the interactions for sure, meaning that either STD's claim is outright false due to the role not interacting with Mandelbrot's, or even if the wording in Mandelbrot's role means that it'd be impossible for the PTs to be open during the day, the fact that there's zero town PTs active in the day suggests it is a fakeclaim.

In other words, it's hard-damned if you do (the interaction SHOULD mean daytalk in Mandelbrot's PTs), still-damned if you don't (no PTs for STD to make be daytalk for the town).

2

:

MOD: Do the scum have daytalk enabled by default?

It's relevant to my next point which is that enabling daytalk may not be a fakeclaim--but a trueclaim of the actual fifth scum if scum do not have daytalk enabled by default. (Obviously, doesn't matter if they have daytalk by default tho.) It's entirely plausible for GIF to make a role that has one passive ability and an active ability, proven by Mystic Bears having one of both. So STD could genuinely be enabling daytalk...for scum...while still being the roleblocker.

3

:

Wrong Terminology

STD said he is a daytalk enabler. I would expect this claim, if it were real, to be under a different name: Encryptor. I realize GIF is not always on top of the standard terminology, but that's precisely why I don't believe the daytalk-enabler, as Enabler (in this case, Daytalk) is actually the newer term with the older, more recognized by a veteran mod like GIF, term, is Encryptor. (The two do the same thing; Encryptors are Daytalk Enablers.)

4

:

Flavor

Gaius van Baelsar, the one scum we're likely to have left, and as I remind you, conveniently the scum flavor STD "jokingly" claimed here (do I need to mention how contrived a coincidence it is that STD in his "joke" claimed the ONLY scum we've yet to eliminate?), has this little blurb about his abilities:

Gaius is a skilled pilot of machina, personally steering the ancient Allagan magitek armor known as Ultima Weapon. He has access to at least one unnamed ship of the Imperial Dreadnaught designation, which is not encountered beyond its one appearance in the 1.0 story.

Gaius is an accomplished general whom both enemy and ally alike cannot help but respect. He conquered Ala Mhigo during its period of unrest: when the people revolted against the King of Ruin, leaving the nation vulnerable, Gaius made his move and conquered the nation with minimal effort.

(The other half covers why Gaius is a good fit for being a scum roleblocker, but we knew that about him anyway.)
Both of these definitely seem like possible flavor justifications for Gaius being a scum Encryptor. A general, inspiring loyalty, respected, who is skilled at piloting.

5

:

Fakeclaim fits as a mod-provided safeclaim

i'm a beloved princess who roleblocks town when killed

GIF is

precisely

the type of moderator who would give the scum roleblocker a fakeclaim of roleblocking the town when they are eliminated. I just genuinely think that scum roleblocker getting a beloved princess fakeclaim is PRECISELY the sort of thing up GIF's alley of scum fakeclaim policy.

But while we're on that part of the role PM...

6

:

Play around the claim

i'm a beloved princess who roleblocks town when killed

"roleblocks the town". Well, about that:

raid

Raid Queue - Ifrit
Success bonus for raid completion:

Gains strongwilled/strongarm for one night

raid

Raid Queue - Ifrit
Success bonus for raid completion:

Gains strongwilled/strongarm for one night

Why is that important?

Guys.
I just got info that... yes indeed this raid reward would make my heal succeed regardless of strongman.
Something about 2 strongarmed roles interacting as if neither was strongarmed.

Sakura Hana went through the effort of basically saying that for the town roles, the raid would make them immune to being roleblocked unless the roleblocker was also strongwilled and roleblocked them.

In other words.

A beloved princess, if eliminated on a day where the raid success bonus is strongwilled...
...The town players on the raid wouldn't be roleblocked by the beloved princess being killed.

So my question is thus:

Why didn't STD, after Sakura Hana went through the effort of figuring out this interaction, claim his role and offer himself up as an elimination?

For D2 you can maybe excuse it as being a day we had a cop guilty--but what about the later raid?

If STD were really a beloved princess whose death would cause the town to be roleblocked, then he'd realize the raid would cause those on it to bypass his role, basically nullifying the downsides of it.

But wait, there's more!

7

:

The claim itself...again.

Per the wiki, let me quote this:

Variations

A common variation for Beloved Princess is that the Day-skipping event only occurs if the Beloved player is eliminated. If the Beloved player is killed in any other way, nothing special happens. This significantly increases the chance of the Beloved role

not

crippling the Town.

I get that it's listed as a variation and that GIF wouldn't necessarily use this version, but it's still the version of the role that, in spite of being called a 'variation', I would consider more common. Scum killing a beloved princess and being rewarded with a day skip is obviously something town has little counterplay around. Town killing a beloved princess is something that they deserve to be punished for.

And then there's a final bonus:

8

:

STD should be killed before we have 6 players alive REGARDLESS of his alignment.

EVEN IF Save the Dragons IS town truthfully claiming beloved princess, now that he has claimed, if he is town, he cannot be allowed to live until we have 6 or fewer alive. Because then, regardless of him being eliminated during day or night, scum automatically would win.

In other words, we NEED to eliminate him while we have 7 or more alive.

The fact that STD hasn't mentioned this, though, the fact that STD hasn't mentioned that he can't live to 6-or-fewer alive? Is evidence that he's scum here because if he were town, he'd KNOW that he'd need to die while we have more than 7 alive.

By the way, we have 9 alive right now.

If STD is truthfully claiming, he NEEDS to die either today or tomorrow; he CANNOT live longer than that or the town risks an autoloss

.
But again: STD not mentioning this is pretty damn strong proof that he's scum, fakeclaiming, because he doesn't want to actually eat the elimination, in spite of how if he is town he should know he MUST be eliminated before town auto-loses.

[mastina]

STD should be killed before we have 6 players alive REGARDLESS of his alignment.

EVEN IF Save the Dragons IS town truthfully claiming beloved princess, now that he has claimed, if he is town, he cannot be allowed to live until we have 6 or fewer alive. Because then, regardless of him being eliminated during day or night, scum automatically would win.

In other words, we NEED to eliminate him while we have 7 or more alive.

The fact that STD hasn't mentioned this, though, the fact that STD hasn't mentioned that he can't live to 6-or-fewer alive? Is evidence that he's scum here because if he were town, he'd KNOW that he'd need to die while we have more than 7 alive.

By the way, we have 9 alive right now.

[b

]If STD is truthfully claiming, he NEEDS to die either today or tomorrow; he CANNOT live longer than that or the town risks an autoloss

[/b].

if he is town he

should

know he

MUST

be eliminated before town auto-loses.

Just going to put this out there for emphasis.
(I did do the math slightly wrong tho; it's 5 alive, not 6 alive.)

Even if you don't believe me that STD is scum, you should still want to back me on eliminating STD because if STD isn't scum, scum can auto-win by killing him when we have 5 alive.

[mastina]

BTW temporary prod dodge to let y'all know that I'll be around later tonight, to respond to everything and hopefully flesh out why I think we should just eliminate STD here.

[mastina]

Oh right, yeah. Question to all of you. Why aren’t you scum this game?

TC, tracked nowhere on a night we know had a roleblock.
Mandelbrot, confirmed not a roleblocker.
Me, have contributed to every scum death + am way out of my scum range + my fullclaim (Which Toog and Mandelbrot can vouch for).
You, for meta + contributing to every scum death.
Dwlee, for contributing to some scum death + N1 pt with Titus + being on the D2 raid which Elsa failed (may need to double check that, am mobile phoneposting at work, so working off of memory here)
Toogeloo, for contributing to every scum death + PT knowledge.
Qrow/Raven, for contributing to most scum deaths + both heads in their town meta (maybe more, too, but need to not be phoneposting).

I want to give better answers to this than what I gave, but basically:

Tomorrow Corporation has directly contributed to the death of every scum in the game, multiple times. Tomorrow Corporation was also a scum-driven counterwagon to Elsa Jay on D3. As if that wasn't enough, Tomorrow Corporation was tracked going nowhere on a night we know that the last scum remaining used a roleblock action. As if that wasn't enough,

Final Raid Group

1. Dwlee99
   
2. Bell
   
3. Elsa Jay
   
4. tictac
   
5. Tomorrow Corporation

The raid is a

failure!

Every name on here is basically highly likely to not be the scum roleblocker. They are basically conftown here as a result.

Mandelbrot has contributed to the death of multiple scum, as well as having their role be confirmed to not be the roleblocker. Furthermore, their usage of their role makes them highly likely to be town. The knowledge they've gained from private topics, like N1 and N5/N6, all make it so that they are basically as cleared as cleared can get.

I am conftown from having been suspicious of all four scum for basically the entirety of the game and being THE main driver behind most of their eliminations. I was the strongest proponent of the Elsa Jay elimination AND I shut down the attempted counterwagons on Tomorrow Corporation and to a lesser extent tictac. I was the driving force behind eliminating WhemeStar and defended RealCheeks. I was THE driving force behind the Mystic Bears elimination, and again, shot down, and by proxy, shut down, counterwagon attempts (again on the likes of RealCheeks among others). And beyond all of that, my role (which Mandelbrot and Toogeloo have full access to) is hard-clearing of me as it is a role that cannot be a scum role. Plus, while my raid success has never been confirmed, the fact is that I've still contributed towards making those raids succeed, and have thus been immensely pro-town in having done so, and scum making raids fail had to deliberately sack themselves in order to do so. Plus, this is so absurdly out of my scumrange that it's impossible for me to be scum. (Heck, it's even out of my 3p range since while I play 3ps as if I am town, being 3p instead of town, I still notably have something "not there" which people can and DO pick up on when I am 3p. That nobody has is proof that I'm town.)

You, Bell, are conftown because of meta with this being outside of your scum range, you having contributed to basically every scum death, and also,

Final Raid Group

1. Dwlee99
   
2. Bell
   
3. Elsa Jay
   
4. tictac
   
5. Tomorrow Corporation

The raid is a

failure!

Every name on here is basically highly likely to not be the scum roleblocker. You are among them and thus, highly likely to not be scum.

Dwlee is also basically cleared for this by the same logic, but beyond that, had the N1 PT with Titus and Titus lived through N1 AND N2 alive and unblocked, plus, has contributed to scum's death in a way that doesn't seem scumbuddy-indicative.

Toogeloo is basically cleared because of how Toog was the deciding factor in the Elsa Jay elimination AND the SirCakez elimination and has contributed to every scum death in a meaningful way. Beyond that, if Toogeloo were scum, the last two nights would not have played out the way that they did, as Toogeloo had access to my fullclaim and we know the scum roleblocker is left alive. As a result, from what transpired and what

didn't

transpire, I am clearing Toogeloo here.

Qrow and Raven is basically:
Nancy doesn't really bus. (She CAN, she just...in general...doesn't.)
Why's this important?
Because the slot, if scum, has done precisely that the whole game pretty much.
You can argue that Gamma's earlier posts, Nancy wouldn't veto, but this one I feel she would have objected strongly to, yet she did not. Cakez was Gamma's strongest scumread in fact and this was partially with Nancy's feedback. While Nancy doesn't list him as scum, She DOES list him as "concerning" in not being town, which while not a hard-commitment to not bussing, still shows more inclination towards bussing. While she backtracks on that here, she does so...when pointing fingers at a

different

scum, in thinking WhemeStar was suspicious. And Gamma continued his push there.

Gamma also showed early suspicion on Elsa Jay, too.

Admittedly, this isn't the strongest of starts on page one of their iso.

But it does get better.

This is Gamma voting for Cakez on D1 instead of Momrangal. While Nancy was more defending of Cakez than not, critically, she did not unvote. She did not override Gamma's vote. If she were scum, I'd expect her to have unvoted SirCakez there, but she didn't. She let the vote stay.

And while Her D2 vote on Cakez was after Romance's guilty claim, this being Nancy, I'm not even sure she

saw

the guilty claim at the time, and there's evidence she was heading towards a Cakez vote prior to the guilty claim (Romance's guilty claim was 2205 so Nancy posted 2185 before the guilty claim and 2185 is pretty unambiguously suspicious of Cakez). 2253, also post-guilty, but also showing Nancy showing reasons beyond "lol guilty" to vote there.

But that's just SirCakez.

This post also implies Elsa suspicion. As does the followthrough.

Which is made explicit in 2185, where Elsa is noted as a suspect.

Gamma also showed severe suspicion of WhemeStar.

Gamma Was an early voter of Elsa Jay here. Furthered in 2922. This would be something that Gamma would've discussed with Nancy overnight so it is likely she was aware of it and did not oppose him. 3036 and 3054 both show more of this. Here she had the chance to back off of Elsa Jay but chose not to. Tho she does go off against tictac and launch into a crusade against them (by the way, Nancy doing that? 100% her town meta and not something I feel she can replicate as scum so while it's unfortunate that it took the slot's vote off of Elsa Jay, it's further proof they are town by play even if not by vote placement), later down the road she still has Elsa Jay as a preferred elimination anyway. (Her preference towards tictac isn't scum not voting a scumbuddy, but rather, Nancy doing the OMGUS Nancy is known for and confbiasing as a consequence. Again--something I don't think she's capable of doing as scum.)

4066, 4067, and 4069 all show evidence that Nancy was sincere in wanting to yeet Elsa Jay, too. 4077 was further pushing of this as well.

And then furthering the pushing of flipped scum, we get to Nancy's push on the slot here, augmented by 5577 and culminating in the vote here.

But the real clincher is 5592, where Nancy claims Out Of Game reasons for scumreading WhemeStar--does that sound like an accusation a scumbuddy makes of their scum partner when deciding to bus them? Fuck no, this is a town Nancy through and through. And it wasn't a one-off, either. She was quite insistent on eliminating Wheme, there. In fact, she was one of the strongest pushers for Wheme being scum.

Plus, while it's not bussing of Mystic Bears, This post sequence is not scum-scum from Nancy ever.

Aside from all of these interactions, Nancy is just in her town meta through and through. I've seen her as scum quite a lot and if this is her scumplay she's leveled up it a LOT because it's hitting all the right town notes from what I'd expect to see from her when she's town.
It is

also

what I'd expect to see from Gamma Emerald as town as well.

Both slots have played about as town as they possibly could, so while not cleared mechanically, they can't get more town than this.

[mastina]

Oh right, yeah. Question to all of you. Why aren’t you scum this game?

TC, tracked nowhere on a night we know had a roleblock.
Mandelbrot, confirmed not a roleblocker.
Me, have contributed to every scum death + am way out of my scum range + my fullclaim (Which Toog and Mandelbrot can vouch for).
You, for meta + contributing to every scum death.
Dwlee, for contributing to some scum death + N1 pt with Titus + being on the D2 raid which Elsa failed (may need to double check that, am mobile phoneposting at work, so working off of memory here)
Toogeloo, for contributing to every scum death + PT knowledge.
Qrow/Raven, for contributing to most scum deaths + both heads in their town meta (maybe more, too, but need to not be phoneposting).

I want to give better answers to this than what I gave, but basically:

Tomorrow Corporation has directly contributed to the death of every scum in the game, multiple times. Tomorrow Corporation was also a scum-driven counterwagon to Elsa Jay on D3. As if that wasn't enough, Tomorrow Corporation was tracked going nowhere on a night we know that the last scum remaining used a roleblock action. As if that wasn't enough,

Final Raid Group

1. Dwlee99
   
2. Bell
   
3. Elsa Jay
   
4. tictac
   
5. Tomorrow Corporation

The raid is a

failure!

Every name on here is basically highly likely to not be the scum roleblocker. They are basically conftown here as a result.

Mandelbrot has contributed to the death of multiple scum, as well as having their role be confirmed to not be the roleblocker. Furthermore, their usage of their role makes them highly likely to be town. The knowledge they've gained from private topics, like N1 and N5/N6, all make it so that they are basically as cleared as cleared can get.

I am conftown from having been suspicious of all four scum for basically the entirety of the game and being THE main driver behind most of their eliminations. I was the strongest proponent of the Elsa Jay elimination AND I shut down the attempted counterwagons on Tomorrow Corporation and to a lesser extent tictac. I was the driving force behind eliminating WhemeStar and defended RealCheeks. I was THE driving force behind the Mystic Bears elimination, and again, shot down, and by proxy, shut down, counterwagon attempts (again on the likes of RealCheeks among others). And beyond all of that, my role (which Mandelbrot and Toogeloo have full access to) is hard-clearing of me as it is a role that cannot be a scum role. Plus, while my raid success has never been confirmed, the fact is that I've still contributed towards making those raids succeed, and have thus been immensely pro-town in having done so, and scum making raids fail had to deliberately sack themselves in order to do so. Plus, this is so absurdly out of my scumrange that it's impossible for me to be scum. (Heck, it's even out of my 3p range since while I play 3ps as if I am town, being 3p instead of town, I still notably have something "not there" which people can and DO pick up on when I am 3p. That nobody has is proof that I'm town.)

You, Bell, are conftown because of meta with this being outside of your scum range, you having contributed to basically every scum death, and also,

Final Raid Group

1. Dwlee99
   
2. Bell
   
3. Elsa Jay
   
4. tictac
   
5. Tomorrow Corporation

The raid is a

failure!

Every name on here is basically highly likely to not be the scum roleblocker. You are among them and thus, highly likely to not be scum.

Dwlee is also basically cleared for this by the same logic, but beyond that, had the N1 PT with Titus and Titus lived through N1 AND N2 alive and unblocked, plus, has contributed to scum's death in a way that doesn't seem scumbuddy-indicative.

Toogeloo is basically cleared because of how Toog was the deciding factor in the Elsa Jay elimination AND the SirCakez elimination and has contributed to every scum death in a meaningful way. Beyond that, if Toogeloo were scum, the last two nights would not have played out the way that they did, as Toogeloo had access to my fullclaim and we know the scum roleblocker is left alive. As a result, from what transpired and what

didn't

transpire, I am clearing Toogeloo here.

Qrow and Raven is basically:
Nancy doesn't really bus. (She CAN, she just...in general...doesn't.)
Why's this important?
Because the slot, if scum, has done precisely that the whole game pretty much.
You can argue that Gamma's earlier posts, Nancy wouldn't veto, but this one I feel she would have objected strongly to, yet she did not. Cakez was Gamma's strongest scumread in fact and this was partially with Nancy's feedback. While Nancy doesn't list him as scum, She DOES list him as "concerning" in not being town, which while not a hard-commitment to not bussing, still shows more inclination towards bussing. While she backtracks on that here, she does so...when pointing fingers at a

different

scum, in thinking WhemeStar was suspicious. And Gamma continued his push there.

Gamma also showed early suspicion on Elsa Jay, too.

Admittedly, this isn't the strongest of starts on page one of their iso.

But it does get better.

This is Gamma voting for Cakez on D1 instead of Momrangal. While Nancy was more defending of Cakez than not, critically, she did not unvote. She did not override Gamma's vote. If she were scum, I'd expect her to have unvoted SirCakez there, but she didn't. She let the vote stay.

And while Her D2 vote on Cakez was after Romance's guilty claim, this being Nancy, I'm not even sure she

saw

the guilty claim at the time, and there's evidence she was heading towards a Cakez vote prior to the guilty claim (Romance's guilty claim was 2205 so Nancy posted 2185 before the guilty claim and 2185 is pretty unambiguously suspicious of Cakez). 2253, also post-guilty, but also showing Nancy showing reasons beyond "lol guilty" to vote there.

But that's just SirCakez.

This post also implies Elsa suspicion. As does the followthrough.

Which is made explicit in 2185, where Elsa is noted as a suspect.

Gamma also showed severe suspicion of WhemeStar.

Gamma Was an early voter of Elsa Jay here. Furthered in 2922. This would be something that Gamma would've discussed with Nancy overnight so it is likely she was aware of it and did not oppose him. 3036 and 3054 both show more of this. Here she had the chance to back off of Elsa Jay but chose not to. Tho she does go off against tictac and launch into a crusade against them (by the way, Nancy doing that? 100% her town meta and not something I feel she can replicate as scum so while it's unfortunate that it took the slot's vote off of Elsa Jay, it's further proof they are town by play even if not by vote placement), later down the road she still has Elsa Jay as a preferred elimination anyway. (Her preference towards tictac isn't scum not voting a scumbuddy, but rather, Nancy doing the OMGUS Nancy is known for and confbiasing as a consequence. Again--something I don't think she's capable of doing as scum.)

4066, 4067, and 4069 all show evidence that Nancy was sincere in wanting to yeet Elsa Jay, too. 4077 was further pushing of this as well.

And then furthering the pushing of flipped scum, we get to Nancy's push on the slot here, augmented by 5577 and culminating in the vote here.

But the real clincher is 5592, where Nancy claims Out Of Game reasons for scumreading WhemeStar--does that sound like an accusation a scumbuddy makes of their scum partner when deciding to bus them? Fuck no, this is a town Nancy through and through. And it wasn't a one-off, either. She was quite insistent on eliminating Wheme, there. In fact, she was one of the strongest pushers for Wheme being scum.

Plus, while it's not bussing of Mystic Bears, This post sequence is not scum-scum from Nancy ever.

Aside from all of these interactions, Nancy is just in her town meta through and through. I've seen her as scum quite a lot and if this is her scumplay she's leveled up it a LOT because it's hitting all the right town notes from what I'd expect to see from her when she's town.
It is

also

what I'd expect to see from Gamma Emerald as town as well.

Both slots have played about as town as they possibly could, so while not cleared mechanically, they can't get more town than this.

Pagetopping this.

[mastina]

i'm an encryptor not an enabler, sorry. i'm probably providing mafia daytalk and nothing else, which is why i have the beloved princess part of my role as a catch-22. i assumed i was enabling house but i guess i wasn't doing that.

(Btw this is basically STD admitting he fakeclaimed as he thought he was claiming a role that Mandelbrot would verify as a way to make STD live longer.)

[mastina]

it's modified

(for the record, I also don't believe this as how GIF would handle the role from my experience in GIF games--this one included!)

[mastina]

Minfilia
i'm a beloved princess who roleblocks town when killed
i'm also an enabler of day access for private topics

Also also, as the owner of a multi-part role, I'm fairly certain that this is a fakeclaim and not genuine from the way STD is "paraphrasing" it. If this claim were genuine, I'd think the "paraphrase" would line up more to the formatting of my own multi-part role, but it doesn't.

[mastina]

I voiced a concern in our PT last night about why do we have 2 scum with protection abilities? I can see 1 for WIFOM, but 2 just seems weird to me, and 21 players, 1 kill a night, 5 scum, I just have some thoughts, but they're confusing.

Since STD has claimed, my theory is that H1H2's

actual

role was some form of Vig, maybe conditional but also presumably very powerful. (No way to know if scum could've used it tho given we eliminated Elsa D3.)

That'd explain why we haven't seen a Vig (the vig died already), AND why scum have anti-vig abilities.

[mastina]

So do you remember when I accused mastina of acting like she had as much power over the game as the mod and she said that, in some ways, this is true? Nothing about the outed aspects of her claim would justify such a remark.

It was half flavor (the Warrior of Light being the protagonist = they have as much control over the game world as anyone else), half my second unclaimed-publicly power (in that that power allows me to have basically unlimited power if used correctly), which you got to see me fullclaim in the PT.

The only way I really want to eliminate StD is if there is nobody else that has a PT, because that will indicate that he crafted a fake claim based around how he thought our claim operated.

Bingo. Precisely why I think he's scum fakeclaiming here.

[mastina]

acting like nobody's ever bussed scum before

If it was just bussing, this would be fair.

It's also a bunch of other things for everyone, including the WAY it was done and specific interactions.

[mastina]

So there's good news and bad news.

The bad news is, I don't have any idea who the scum is within {Qrow and Raven, tictac, Dwlee99} (tho if I were forced to have an inclination I'd vote them in that order).
The good news is, it doesn't really matter.

We've got 7 alive now, and enough time for 3 eliminations.
I'm never eliminating Toogeloo here;
I'm never eliminating Tomorrow Corporation here;
I'm almost certainly not eliminating Bell here;
Given I know I am town, that means that even in the worst case scenario, we can just brute force our way to a win by eliminating in the pool of {Qrow and Raven, tictac, Dwlee99}.

If you want me to chose it'd be Qrow and Raven > tictac > Dwlee99 in that order but I'd rather actually leave the choice to someone else and sheep their choice.

VOTE: Raid (not that it matters but still gotta do it as a formality I guess)
HURT: Qrow and Raven
(is a soft-vote)

[mastina]

1. How did the raid mechanic feel? What could've been done to make the mechanic better? 2. How did the raid rewards feel? Were they felt useful?

The raid mechanic was pretty neat, but a narrow pool of raids (literally only three, repeating) and their consistent order (no randomness to them), not to mention having my role which allowed for auto-success of basically half the raids in the game via the stacking bonus, all meant that raids felt a little under-developed as a mechanic. It could've been a lot more.

[mastina]

(Btw I also think that the game is a little bit townsided, even given the strong scum roles due to my role in combination with the cop and doctor and commuter and so on and so forth. My role makes all of them stronger and have redundancies when paired with raids. I don't think it's HUGELY unbalanced because the scum roles ARE pretty strong, but I'd say it's closer to like...55-57.5:42.5-45 town:scum here. Granted, town won by play, but I do think that the town roles' synergies were underestimated in review even if we didn't get to optimize the usage of said role synergies.)

[mastina]

-------- Original Message --------
Subject: FFXIV Role PM
Date: Tue Sep 14, 2021 6:19 pm
From: GuyInFreezer
To: mastina

Warrior of Light

Welcome to FFXIV ARR Mafia

You are

Warrior of Light (

Eorzean 1-shot Universal Backup 1-shot Raid Leader

)

Ability:

• Job Change:
  Once a game, you may PM the mod to job change to one of the eliminated town role during the night.
  
• Raid Leader:
  Once a game, if you are in the raid, you may PM the mod to make the raid 100% succeed.

Win Condition:

• All hostile factions are eliminated

Success bonus for raid participants:

gains 1-shot for applicable roles

Question.

If I use Raid Leader on this raid, does that mean I get another Raid Leader?

Raid Leader is a 1-shot ability and the raid success bonus is a +1 to x-shot roles, so this is important to ask.

Yes

Questions about the job change:
-Do I lose Raid Leader if I use the Job Change ability? (Basically, how thorough is the job change? Is it completely and totally making me into that role losing all of my prior abilities, or are they added onto the abilities I already have?)

-Do I lose Job Change if I use the Job Change ability? (It says 'once a game', but I am gaining a +1 so I should have two uses of it, this is asking if I use one would I still have access to the other. Basically, same basic question as above.)

-If I can use Job Change twice, do the roles accumulate? (Say I use Job Change on a Cop and Job Change again on a Doctor. Am I still the Cop while also a Doctor, or do I become just the Doctor?)

-Do I inherit the entire role of the player I job change on, or just one ability?

-Is my use of the role I inherit from job change unlimited, or is it 1-shot? (For instance, if I inherit a full Cop, am I then a full Cop or am I a 1x cop?)

-If I job change onto an x-shot role, do I get all of their shots, or only however many they had remaining? (For instance, if I inherit a 2x Cop that used one shot, do I get two cop shots or just one?)

You don’t lose raid leader.
I don’t know what I was on when I wrote that role PM but intended way of how that role works is that you gain 1-shot of the dead townie’s role when you use it. Yeah I know. Now that I look at it it doesn’t mention that at all.

So let’s say there’s a 4-shot cop who died. If you use your job change, you keep your role and gain a 1-shot cop to use. You inherit the 1-shot version of the entire role. So if the dead cop was macho you would be macho until you job change again. Gained role can be stacked with Garuda raid bonus.

tl;dr you gain 1-shot of active role, you keep passive until you job change again.

I think I get it.
It adds onto my existing role, I get the entire new role but can only use one shot of an active, I keep any passives, and actives stack but passives do not. (So if I backed up a Bulletproof Cop and backed up a Weak Doctor, I'd keep a 1x of the cop and lose the BP but also get a 1x of the doctor and gain the passive of being Weak, as a hypothetical.)

Do I have that basically right?

You’ll lose the shots you didn’t spend.

Pending an answer to this question,

will not be taking the role

, but need to ask:

How does the scum taking a role interact with my backing up of a role?

Do I back up the initial pre-stolen role (meaning, the original role, meaning I still get the powers), or do I get the role after it has been stolen (meaning, the new role, meaning, I get nothing)?

You'd get the stolen role and fail because you cannot take a mafia role.

Right that confirms it then.

I will not be taking a role tonight; I am no-actioning tonight.

Couple more questions.
1: What would happen if I tried to use my backup on Elsa Jay after Elsa had swapped roles?
You said the stolen role is what I'd get if I targeted H1H2 here and it'd fail as I can't get a scum role; is the inverse true as well, that if I target Elsa I would succeed by picking up the stolen role?

Or is it being in possession of scum in spite of being originally town, make it count as a scum role?

2: Per rule 2 in the rules for raids, where raids fail if not enough players are on them, if I am on a raid without enough players and use my raid-success ability, will I cause a raid to succeed?

Consider like this.

You can’t take H1H2 role because it’s [mafia role].
You can’t take Elsa’s role because it’s mafia [role].

And yes you can force a raid to succeed in any circumstances unless you were eliminated.

Another important role question:
Per what you've established previously, my backup needs to be used during the night.

My question is, can I use the role immediately that night, or do I need to wait until the next night?

For instance, if N4 I copied Momrangal's role, would I be able to use it N4, or would I need to wait until N5?

Next night.

jsyk picking up an inventor will give you 1-shot of giving devices each.
(1-shot strongwill giver, 1-shot commute giver)

So I pick up two for the price of one, effectively?

Another question.

Can I back up a role on the same night I use another role?

For instance, tonight, can I use the commute-or-strongwill AND pick up the 1x cop, or am I forced to choose?



Additionally:
If I back up an x-shot role that used up their shots, do I get 0 shots or x-shot?
If I back up an x-shot role that GAINED shots, do I get their gained amount or their original amount?

1. You're not multitasking so no
2. You get 1-shot.
3. You get 1-shot.

Important question; can my obtaining a role be roleblocked?
It's technically a night action per my role PM, but I figure I should ask this finally. (I didn't want to know the answer earlier in the game, but now it's actually important to know.)

Yes

Question.
Can I back up the same role twice?
As in, tonight, could I back up Romance again and would I get another cop shot from it?

Yes

(I probably didn't ask all the questions I should have, honestly.)

[mastina]

Mastina, why’d you make this post? Did you not realize we were already hammered?

Me?

Read before posting?

Since when?



(I was 5 seconds too slow on submitting an overkill vote on you tho after I realized there was a hammer.)