Newbie 1732 [Game Over!]: InnocentVille

For Newbie Games, which have a set format and experienced moderators. Archived during the 2023 queue overhaul.
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Post Post #7 (isolation #0) » Sun Aug 07, 2016 5:28 pm

Post by shannon »

Yay, we're underway!

VOTE: Implosion because he's the only player I know :mrgreen:
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Post Post #17 (isolation #1) » Sun Aug 07, 2016 8:16 pm

Post by shannon »

Just noticed that Rocnix is new-new, having joined only at the start of this month. Welcome! (Imagine I am clever and have inserted a cute gif here)

Could you please pop up an avatar so we can tell who you are at a glance?
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Post Post #26 (isolation #2) » Mon Aug 08, 2016 12:23 am

Post by shannon »

I wouldn't say I have *lots* of experience, but I've bumbled my way through a few games here now. Mostly I've subbed in to other games, I think this is my third played right from the start. I'm still hoping for my first town win - fingers crossed this is going to be it!
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Post Post #28 (isolation #3) » Mon Aug 08, 2016 3:06 am

Post by shannon »

How can you accuse someone of having a too-cute avatar when yours is a penguin! And your *name* is a penguin

VOTE: Penguin for overwhelming cuteness
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Post Post #43 (isolation #4) » Mon Aug 08, 2016 4:41 pm

Post by shannon »

In post 42, AstralFlare wrote:
she opened up with a self vote in Open 398, where she ended up being scum. I couldn't find any other games where she started like that.
That was in 2012! In her more recent games, I'm unable to find any examples of anyone selfvoting during RVS.

Chrimi: In addition to Jib's question, I would like to know if you've had any recent off-site experience.
I've seen the RVS self-vote a couple of times, but I can't link it here. I don't think it's necessarily indicative of alignment.

In post 39, AstralFlare wrote:Jibs seems towny, he's quite actively questioning people and trying to push the discussion forward, with lots of effort spent on checking Chrimi's past games. I'll be investigating those as well, and I'll post in a few hours if I find anything interesting.

Implosion, is your Penguin FoS tone based as well?

Shannon and rocnix, do you have any thoughts right now on anything?
It's the middle of the day for me (11:35 AM as I write this) so I'm working - most of my posts will come on the weekend or in the evening (my time).

I do find it interesting that people are checking Chrimi's past games so thoroughly at such an early stage, based on what looked (to me) to be a reasonably off-hand comment. I personally don't delve in to past games looking for clues as to play style, I just go on what I remember from playing with them.
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Post Post #51 (isolation #5) » Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:16 pm

Post by shannon »

In post 49, Chrimi wrote:Wait wait wait

Are you guys seriously taking my first post's RVS joking self-vote as somehow scummy?

I've had alternate accounts, as well, not that it matters. I've also played a shitton off-site. :s
IMHO having an alt account totally matters in a game like this. It's not like you're playing a hunter instead of a mage and that gives you different abilities. Unless you're faking a whole other personality, an alt in mafia only serves to obscure yourself to get an advantage over players who might otherwise recognise your style and your tells.

VOTE: Chrimi for being the sort of person who has alts to hide behind.
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Post Post #52 (isolation #6) » Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:40 pm

Post by shannon »

In post 42, AstralFlare wrote:
she opened up with a self vote in Open 398, where she ended up being scum. I couldn't find any other games where she started like that.
That was in 2012! In her more recent games, I'm unable to find any examples of anyone selfvoting during RVS.

Chrimi: In addition to Jib's question, I would like to know if you've had any recent off-site experience.

Astral Eevee - why are you defending Chrimi against Jibs' comment here?
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Post Post #61 (isolation #7) » Tue Aug 09, 2016 1:27 am

Post by shannon »

Isn't randomly voting kind of the point of RVS, though?

Pedit: I lolled at Very Serious Game. What happened to newbies needing to ask a million questions about how to mafia? (Or
was
is that only me?)
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Post Post #76 (isolation #8) » Tue Aug 09, 2016 1:29 pm

Post by shannon »

In post 66, Jibs wrote:Hello Shannon! I have some questions for you.

VOTE: shannon
In post 43, shannon wrote:I do find it interesting that people are checking Chrimi's past games so thoroughly at such an early stage, based on what looked (to me) to be a reasonably off-hand comment. I personally don't delve in to past games looking for clues as to play style, I just go on what I remember from playing with them.
Do you see scum agenda behind the people questioning Chrimi?
In post 51, shannon wrote: IMHO having an alt account totally matters in a game like this. It's not like you're playing a hunter instead of a mage and that gives you different abilities. Unless you're faking a whole other personality, an alt in mafia only serves to obscure yourself to get an advantage over players who might otherwise recognise your style and your tells.

VOTE: Chrimi for being the sort of person who has alts to hide behind.
How much of this post was sarcastic?

I don't see scum in the people isoing Chrimi, I just think it's a little unusual for this stage in the game. Like someone said, it's a Very Serious Game

I *am* a stickler for rules but that was a reaction test :lol:
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Post Post #91 (isolation #9) » Wed Aug 10, 2016 12:52 am

Post by shannon »

What's with the attitude Chrimi?
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Post Post #164 (isolation #10) » Wed Aug 10, 2016 1:09 pm

Post by shannon »

In post 97, thenewearth wrote:
In post 67, Jibs wrote:thenewearth: Can you give me a read on penguinpower? Can you explain your read on shannon?
Shannon's vote

Incredibly scummy

Must die
:lol:
In post 98, thenewearth wrote:Actually you know what?

Calling it right here

Shannon-Penguin
:lol: :lol:
In post 109, Jibs wrote:Hello everyone!

Here is the case on Shannon. (snippy snip but clicky the linky to view it again)[/post]

The point of my post and vote wasn't to test Chrimi's reaction, it was the see the rest of you react - to see what you would make out of a rubbish point made early. And the winner is ... 0x40, whose first post came in just after my 'reaction test', and who made a giant mountain out of a molehill. His very first post is where he votes Chrimi over basically a typo or turn of phrase, then kicks it on to , , , , ...etc etc. The whole ISO is basically pushing Chrimi over absolutely nothing. I'm not sure whether it's alignment indicative or just overzealous/personality based, but it's worth a vote at this point.

VOTE: 0x40

Implosion is looking fairly neutral at this point, I can't tell much between his IC posts and his regular play style.
Jibs is behaving decently townily and I liked that he questioned me over my change of mind on Chrimi
Chrimi reads like frustrated town

I've not really got much of a read on the others at this point.

Apologies for not being part of the big conversation that happened, it was overnight for me. GMT+8
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Post Post #195 (isolation #11) » Thu Aug 11, 2016 2:08 am

Post by shannon »

^^Agree with Astral Flare (GMT+8 too? Perth too?) that Implosion is as much trying to IC as he is play the game. I don't think he's deliberately trying to cause confusion but it's not always clear to me whether he's saying something with his IC hat on or whether it's his personal opinion. Maybe Implosion you could italicise your IC stuff just to differentiate it from your regular play?
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Post Post #200 (isolation #12) » Thu Aug 11, 2016 2:13 am

Post by shannon »

Astral Flare - No one else is really sticking out to me as scummy at this point, I think I'll go re-read everything.

PEdit: Actually Chrimi makes an interesting point about the misrep. And this part he quoted from AF is kinda hilariously dramatic
"You will explain this contradiction, along with giving the usernames of all your other alts, if you want this vote to be elsewhere today."
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Post Post #252 (isolation #13) » Thu Aug 11, 2016 2:39 pm

Post by shannon »

Alright, here it is. 0x40, stop it with the Chrimi thing. All you're doing is frustrating people and derailing conversation. If Chrimi is scum, it's not because of having alt accounts. Let's find something *in this game* that's relevant to alignment. It's actually really hard to get a read on anyone with this whole thing going on, it's distracting and I don't like it.
In post 224, Chrimi wrote:
In post 223, 0x40 wrote:
In post 219, Chrimi wrote:I already gave you a reason why I can't. Remove your vote, or find a real reason why I'm scummy.
What reason? And saying that your meta is useless is not a valid reason, because that's simply not true.
1. There are many players who believe meta is bogus.
2. Alternate accounts are made to try different playstyles, or to enjoy people not knowing who your main is.
3. Me giving the username(s) of my alt(s) is completely pointless and doesn't help town or scum.
Basically, this.

Also, for what it's worth - meta isn't necessarily helpful to town. I won my first time as scum, quite comprehensively with both of us still alive. Next game, one of the players was the moderator from my scum game, who knew all my tells and tricks from watching me do it ... and he town read me all game, we made it to MYLO, and I won again, as scum. Meta doesn't always help town. So let's just play this game and let Chrimi have alts, OK?
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Post Post #267 (isolation #14) » Thu Aug 11, 2016 7:09 pm

Post by shannon »

Quickie reads list, and thanks to Implosion for separating his IC self from his game self. Order of people copied from page 1 so I didn't miss anyone.

1. Jibs - Previously a weak town read because he called me out over my reaction test, which I thought was fair enough. Something from his 264 set me off, asking Chrimi re: Implosion - "From your perspective, who would his scumbuddy be? I think he would bother to make up a reason for townreading af if he was scum with af, but maybe I'm being paranoid here". This, to me, reads like a newbie rushing in to defend his scum buddy (implosion in this case) unnecessarily. So I'm keeping an eye on Jibs now.

2. AstralFlare - I like Astral Flare for town, especially for his comment to PP in 193. Pointing out these sorts of inconsistencies (i.e. scum reading but not voting) is good town play.

3. PenguinPower - Not much to go on, to be honest. Engages with Chrimi over the alt thing and then responds to Jibs, but there's not much more to see. Null I guess.

4. 0x40 - Scummish for the tunnelling of Chrimi over the alt issue, but could have been a TvT thing driven by personality. Keeping an eye on him.

5. Rocnix - I'm getting decently town vibes, her play reads like newbie town. Lots of questions, referring to the wiki, but also calling out things like misrepresentation. Asking for reads lists a lot is something that I think new town does, when they're unsure of how to really participate themselves.

6. Chrimi (SE) - Still think she's frustrated town.

7. thenewearth (SE) - It's bothering me that the SE hasn't provided much content, beyond a defense of alts. Unsure whether this is because of business elsewhere or general lurkerdom. Has to be null for now.

8. shannon (SE) - Me! Town! Yeah!

9. implosion (IC) - I can't get a read here, Implosion is a much better player than I am and I have seen the whole 'reasonable town leader' thing from scum as well as from town. I think I'm going to have to wait for a flip before I know anything much about him.
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Post Post #268 (isolation #15) » Thu Aug 11, 2016 7:10 pm

Post by shannon »

Changing my VOTE: Jibs because I'm more suss of him than of 0x40 right now. Will do a proper read again tonight x
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Post Post #276 (isolation #16) » Fri Aug 12, 2016 2:11 am

Post by shannon »

In post 251, 0x40 wrote:Here are my reads so far:
Jibs: Seems to be extremely overconfident in some of his reads, putting shannon at 31% scum for very minor reasons, and townreading Rocnix at 19% scum for seemingly no reason at all. He thinks policy lynching is a good enough of an idea to bring it up, which is insane from a town perspective. Lynching based on policy rather than lynching whoever is the most scummy is extremely anti-town. He wants Chrimi to not get replaced and doesn't give a good explanation why. 32% scum.

Chrimi: Isn't really scumhunting much, is very selective in the questions she chooses to answer, selfvoted during rvs, votes implosion for some strange reason, and
doesn't seem to have much of a read on anyone
. 30% scum.

thenewearth: Pretty much all her posts are completely useless.
Seems to have basically no reads whatsoever on anyone
, and has done next to no scumhunting. 27% scum.

shannon:
Doesn't seem to have any reads on anyone either
, but seems to at least trying to scumhunt. 23% scum.

implosion:
Hasn't really given much of a read on anyone since post #33, but that's kinda understandable considering that not much has happened in this game so far
. 23% scum.

AstralFlare: Is supposedly working on a readlist that will be posted today. Been actively scumhunting. 22% scum.

PenguinPower: Makes a reasonable case against Chrimi in #110. Has a readlist that makes sense. 20% scum.

Rocnix: Has a readlist that's almost identical to PenguinPower's. Not much else to go by. 23% scum.
I have some questions about this post

1) Why is Implosion excused for not having reads ('kinda understandable considering that not much has happened') but for everyone else it's a negative?

2) How is TNE 'pretty much useless' at 27%, and yet me, implosion, rocnix are at 23% with seemingly neutral reads? Is 4% a significant margin for you?

3) Penguin gets credit for a reasonable case and gets 20%, but people who are not giving reads are only on 22% or 23% ... again, is 2 or 3% really significant?

Isn't this list just a way of saying that everyone is about the same, but you think Jibs and Chrimi are slightly scummier ... I guess I think that the words and %s don't match up.

Finally - aren't you town reading everyone based on this? If no one is more than 50% scum, aren't we all town? So isn't this list kind of ... meaningless?
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Post Post #309 (isolation #17) » Fri Aug 12, 2016 6:54 pm

Post by shannon »

Sorry guys, still got major renovation going on here so I haven't had as much time available to concentrate as I would like.
In post 297, Rocnix wrote:
Shannon, I have a bit of an oddball question for you (or anyone who would like to throw in their two cents): Who do you think is in the most danger of being nightkilled?
I can see why newbie town would ask this, but I don't think there's a good way to answer it without giving scum some kind of useful information. So here's a general answer, strategies that scum might pursue -

1) NK the towniest person and leave everyone wondering
2) NK someone at that others have been scum reading, and leave everyone wondering
3) NK someone they suspect is a PR
4) NK someone who is doing a good job as town, i.e. is a logical thinker and able to influence others
5) NK someone chosen deliberately to make everyone wonder what was going on, like picking someone who's been on totally the wrong track and then offing them

Personally when I play as scum, I'd go for 3), then 5), 2), 4) and 1) in order of preference. Others mileage may vary.

Later you say I'd probably thinking about NKs as a town PR or as scum, and that's true of me as a vanilla townie also. I'm always looking at the whole situation and trying to draw out possible conclusions. If I'm doing this in late game as town it's generally guaranteed to get me killed, but at least (if the remaining townies don't take me for a VI or ignore my thoughts) it gives them something to go on.

In post 307, Rocnix wrote:I may as well explain my whole logic behind that question, since it's unsafe to get answers:
1) It gives a partial readlist in a different context, by talking about who would kill, who has motivation to, and who is town enough to be killed.
2) Talking about who scum should kill and why gives more context to analysis tomorrow.
3) It's a question specifically about maf's actions, so it's a lie in which they can be caught. I'm not good at reading subtle things, so I could use a specific interaction to target.
Is there a way to examine this without threatening prs?

I think it's useful to discuss potential NK or lynch candidates later in the game after we've had at least one or two flips, but this early, it's really just a crap shoot.

Also re: 2), if I said for example 'OK scum should totally kill Chrimi' and they did, how would you work out whether a) I was scum and killing Chrimi, or whether b) someone else was scum and took that as as a way of pinning it on me, or whether c) I was scum and did it because I thought I could use b) as a strategy to get away with it?
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Post Post #310 (isolation #18) » Fri Aug 12, 2016 6:59 pm

Post by shannon »

Someone said that TNE is tunnelling me, but as far as I can tell there's no tunnelling going on. This is what I've got from TNE's ISO, what am I missing?

Spoiler:
In post 64, thenewearth wrote:also

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Shannon
In post 97, thenewearth wrote:
In post 67, Jibs wrote:thenewearth: Can you give me a read on penguinpower? Can you explain your read on shannon?
Shannon's vote

Incredibly scummy

Must die
In post 98, thenewearth wrote:Actually you know what?

Calling it right here

Shannon-Penguin
In post 189, thenewearth wrote:I'll address the shannon stuff after she posts about 3-5 times

She either can fix herself or make it more transparent

Lets see what she'd do <3
In post 209, thenewearth wrote:Well someone's not fixing herself


By the way, it would be really helpful TNE to tell me what you think needs fixing, I'm useless at reading between the lines. What do I need to fix or make more transparent?
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Post Post #312 (isolation #19) » Sat Aug 13, 2016 1:55 am

Post by shannon »

OK it's wine o'clock so I'm sitting down and trying to find something to post about because frankly I can't make head nor tail of this game so far. I suck at D1 I think it's fair to say.

The only thing I'm wondering is whether Chrimi is hiding a bit behind playstyle. Like, by using lots of accusatory tones and getting a bit dramatic, she's building in an automatic defense, something along the lines of 'you just don't like how I do things' or 'you just don't get it'. That's basically all I got.
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Post Post #316 (isolation #20) » Sat Aug 13, 2016 2:10 pm

Post by shannon »

The other thing I'm wondering is whether people *know* we won't be policy lynching (e.g. lynching lurkers) so they're being deliberately lurky D1 because they know they can get a way with it?
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Post Post #324 (isolation #21) » Sun Aug 14, 2016 2:18 am

Post by shannon »

None of it was sarcasm!
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Post Post #325 (isolation #22) » Sun Aug 14, 2016 2:19 am

Post by shannon »

I try not to do sarcasm here because it's hard enough to judge intention and interpret people's tones without adding layers to it.
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Post Post #333 (isolation #23) » Mon Aug 15, 2016 1:06 am

Post by shannon »

Agree re: Implosion's most recent post, I don't like the appeal to our just-finished game. It was a very different game from this one, it had 19 players and an unknown setup, and it was full of very strong characters and completely rubbish gambits and hundreds of pages wasted on utter tosh. I was unsure how to interact with it in the early stages, it just seemed too big to me, I'd wake up to tens of pages every morning. (My disengagement didn't serve me well in the late game, when no one really listened to/cared about my thoughts because I'd been deliberately useless early on - lesson to town, always participate). This game is nothing like that!

I think it's really helpful to see the votes in list format, it makes connections a bit clearer.

We have Chrimi on AF, AF on TNE ,TNE on 0x40, and 0x40 on Chrimi in a round-robin of OMGUS and early game grudges. I think one of our scum is here, waiting for the point when *fine*, if town demands it, they'll abandon their grudge and vote on a popular wagon. So I need to ask who's doing the most to keep this thing going?

Rocnix and Implosion are also on TNE. I can't see why TNE is scummier than any of the others in the Alt Drama Squad. Rocnix says she's there because TNE isn't participating . From what I can tell, TNE's entire gameplay is Alt Drama Squad stuff and then supposed tunneling of me. So OK, I can see that. Implosion gives roughly the same reason in . I'm not sure whether I buy it entirely. Something about Implosion's phrasing, 'ironically join the wagon', throws me off. I need to see how this develops once TNE rejoins the game.

Jibs, why aren't you voting?
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Post Post #358 (isolation #24) » Mon Aug 15, 2016 2:19 pm

Post by shannon »

In post 336, AstralFlare wrote:
In post 333, shannon wrote:We have Chrimi on AF, AF on TNE ,TNE on 0x40, and 0x40 on Chrimi in a round-robin of OMGUS and early game grudges. I think one of our scum is here
Why do you think scum is there? Last I checked, you had Chrimi and I as town, and PP and implosion who aren't in the round robin as null. Assuming your first scumread is Jibs, what makes you so quick to discount PP and implosion, and so confident that it's either TNE or 0x40 as second scum?
My post perhaps made me seem more confident than I am, but it just seems convenient that the whole thing keeps rolling on with these four players. and it's not like it's two sets of pairs cross-voting each other, it really is a round robin. So I think someone is invested in keeping that going as cover.

I should probably UNVOTE: Jibs at this point to keep my options open.
In post 337, thenewearth wrote:Ya'll are reading waaay to into texts btw
Yeah that's kind of the point of the game?
In post 342, PenguinPower wrote:So...you were too busy, and needed 2-3 hours, to basically say that 0x40 is scum because he's tunneling your subjectively-called weakest player, Chrimi; and, that shannon is town because you said so but will never tell us. Oh and screw providing your town reads because...yeah...

Solid reasoning...thanks for your contributions...you have definitely helped town out here.
In post 343, thenewearth wrote:Yeah because making it easier for scum to NK the towniest player is the greatest contribution

bzzt
That's totally not a defense for not participating. It's not like scum can't make their own judgments about who's towniest. And it's also not like scum auto kill the towniest looking person - someone can be both genuinely towny and wrong about who's scum, after all. (Pedit - What implosion said)

So, the question is: Is TNE scum, or is he just being difficult?
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Post Post #378 (isolation #25) » Tue Aug 16, 2016 12:49 am

Post by shannon »

What cryptic stuff?
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Post Post #395 (isolation #26) » Tue Aug 16, 2016 4:59 pm

Post by shannon »

Quickie update because I"m just reading over lunch and have like 10 mins.

TNE has moved up my town list with her latest posts. I am feeling a bit off about Implosion and about 0x40, given what I said about the 'round robin' voting and how TNE has pointed out that 0x40 has done next to nothing useful so far. I feel like implosion is just smoothing over any issues raised about him and it feels a bit off putting. "It's the vibe of the thing", as they say. I'll try to be more specific when I can make a substantive post later tonight or tomorrow.

Regarding Rocnix: If she comes back from this prod and it becomes a 'thing' that she needs prodding but never actually gets replaced, I'd vote to lynch on policy. I've twice had it happen where someone (town) did this and in both cases it only helped scum. (They eventually replaced at the 3P LYLO stage, and it was a disaster - much better to have offed them early and got on with things).
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Post Post #402 (isolation #27) » Wed Aug 17, 2016 2:28 am

Post by shannon »

Good luck reading the game that Implosion and I just finished!
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Post Post #405 (isolation #28) » Wed Aug 17, 2016 3:13 am

Post by shannon »

Alrighty, going back and ISOing Jibs I've decided he's FOS, i.e. the tone isn't the only thing that he's faking.

In he seems like scum who has more info than everyone else. He seems so all-over the game that he can not only suggest scum partners for Chrimi, he can also suggest town reads based on those scum reads.

- "
First, I had some reasonably strong associative reads at that point in the game, and I thought other town players would as well. You seemed to be putting a fair amount of effort into the game, and it was surprising that you couldn't pick a scumpartner for Chrimi.
I think me, Rocnix, tne, and especially imp all would have been good choices from the perspective of town!PP, but even if you had different reads, that would have been fine, as long as there was some reasonable explanation"

"Second, I didn't like your townreads on me and imp. At that point, if you think Chrimi is scum, you should be very suspicious of imp for scumreading her, making an incredibly weak push on her, and then leaving his vote on you. Additionally, you should be suspicious of me because I voted Chrimi, changed my vote in 66, and said basically fuckall about her alignment after that while going after other players"

Later, in , two things stand out to me. It sounds like he's trying to suggest (but stealthily) a policy lynch on 0x40. It also sounds like he's trying to make up for some over-confidence by saying how his reads are bad. Notice how back in 171 he was full of suggestions and game theory advice for another player, and now he's no good at the game.

"While it might be nice to policy 0x40, we absolutely cannot afford to right now" -- " I'm just not reading the game very well at this point =/"

Now again in , Jibs is reading the game poorly, and apologising for discounting someone else's reads. This seems like he has realised his previous over confidence might seem scummy, and he's trying to back away from making strong claims.

"I don't mean to discount your reads, especially when I'm reading the game so poorly. I will definitely keep af and pp in mind as possible lynches. If you are town, I think it is likely that we will need your vote in order to lynch scum, and I am very happy that you took the time to post a read wall"

Finally, , Jibs gives himself an excuse for any future changes-of-read, he's happy to follow the herd.

"The point is, three different people called me out on my rocnix read, and it's not possible for scumteam to be you+pp+imp. I don't think you would change a read based on people disagreeing, but I 100% would"


Anyone else see what I see?
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Post Post #408 (isolation #29) » Wed Aug 17, 2016 1:45 pm

Post by shannon »

Jibs - Regarding the lynch pool.

To narrow it down, I'd like to lynch within the round robin, excluding TNE because his response to the wagon on him seemed so towny. So that's AF, 0x40, and Chrimi. I think that we might get useful info by picking one of these, since there's been a lot of interaction around them.

I am back and forth on Jibs and Implosion. They're both a bit too smooth for my liking, and I can't tell their alignment. Certainly, a flip from them would be revealing in some way, but I'm not sure whether it's worth the risk because they'd both be great assets to town *if* they're town.

I can't support a lynch on TNE (as above), or Rocnix (because it would just be policy at this point).
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Post Post #415 (isolation #30) » Wed Aug 17, 2016 5:46 pm

Post by shannon »

I'm going to wait for the official VC before I vote
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Post Post #422 (isolation #31) » Thu Aug 18, 2016 1:12 am

Post by shannon »

OK, good, VOTE: 0x40
This is L-1 (one more vote to lynch), please no one vote without explicitly stating intent and giving time for 0x40 to respond.
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Post Post #425 (isolation #32) » Thu Aug 18, 2016 1:48 pm

Post by shannon »

I also wouldn't mind hearing from the people who are voting elsewhere, because from my end at least, 0x40 is one of a few suspects and my vote on him is partly because we're nearing deadline and need to consolidate, as Implosion says. Implosion, AF, Rocnix, do any of you have a strong town read on 0x40, or are you feeling OK about this?

(Thought: Did ScumImplosion talk about consolidation so that I would vote 0x40?)
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Post Post #427 (isolation #33) » Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:03 pm

Post by shannon »

Hi Drone! Nice to meet you
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Post Post #449 (isolation #34) » Fri Aug 19, 2016 3:04 pm

Post by shannon »

I am not very impressed with 0x40's reason for not claiming. I'm referring to this - "Of course I want to hide my role. I want this day to end with scum having as little information about who the prs are as possible, and unless I'm convinced I'm getting lynched if I don't, I'm not claiming."

0x40, here are the problems with this, for me:

1) Flips give info to scum, so if you're holding out and someone hammers you anyway, scum will know your role.
2) If you were going to claim a PR and are trying to avoid it, 1) happening is really bad because it doesn't give any other town PRs the chance to save you.
3)You haven't identified another candidate for scum. At least give us someone else to look at?
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Post Post #461 (isolation #35) » Fri Aug 19, 2016 9:31 pm

Post by shannon »

Yeah, please clarify why you've got four candidates there? Drone, TNE, Jibs, Chrimi. You've made cases on 3 and 4 you say, then there's Drone (a new case, I don't get how the new player is the scummiest for not giving reads, scummier than three existing players who you've already cased?
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Post Post #465 (isolation #36) » Sat Aug 20, 2016 2:22 pm

Post by shannon »

Given that pretty much everyone either voted or stated intent to hammer, it's pretty safe to say there was scum
Involvement.

If you are a town pr, this is the time to think about your night action. If you have a protective role, try to use it on someone you think is a PR. If you don't have any idea about other PRs, target someone you think is town. But please prioritise suspected PRs first. (I say this as someone who was once killed the same night I would have got a result on scum, because the doc protected her favourite town player instead of me).

If you have an investigative role, please target someone in your 'dunno' zone. Not someone you think is definite scum or town, but someone you're unsure of. The aim is to get as much info as possible.
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Post Post #472 (isolation #37) » Sat Aug 20, 2016 4:11 pm

Post by shannon »

In post 466, thenewearth wrote:Shannon its posts like that that make me think you're 1000% scum :/

Because you disagree with my recommendations, or because I posted at all? I see a few others have now added their own advice, which may be better or worse than mine (likely better, they've got more experience), so I'm sure our PRs will take that in to account.

Jibs, sorry to see you go. I don't know whether Implosion was crumbing anything TBH, and if there's cryptic stuff going on it's going over my head. That's part of why I am playing mafia, I am trying to learn not to take everything literally, and not to speak so forthrightly.
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Post Post #477 (isolation #38) » Sat Aug 20, 2016 8:09 pm

Post by shannon »

In post 473, thenewearth wrote:Nah its because that post was almost either

role fishing, LAMIST post, PR controlling

All 3 points are scummy
PR controlling = giving what I thought was good advice, YMMV
I don't see how it's role fishing, because how would the fish be caught? Someone says 'oh thanks Shannon, cool, I'll protect X today'?
I don't know what LAMIST is but will google it.
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Post Post #478 (isolation #39) » Sat Aug 20, 2016 8:10 pm

Post by shannon »

For anyone else who needs google, LAMIST = Look at me, I'm so town
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Post Post #479 (isolation #40) » Sat Aug 20, 2016 9:22 pm

Post by shannon »

OK, what's the most useful thing we can do with this extended twilight?
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Post Post #484 (isolation #41) » Sun Aug 21, 2016 12:47 am

Post by shannon »

Re: Drone 483 -

For me, the vote was between four people because they were all voting each other in turn over what I think is petty distracting crap (alts and VIs and whatnot). I ruled out one of them based on a towny response to accusations. Out of the others, 0x40 was the scummiest, and he ended up being one we all agreed upon. I can't tell whether the others thought it was policy, but his behaviour definitely didn't help.

It's a little weird to me that 0x40 had four votes on him, with Chrimi and implosion both willing to hammer, Drone pointing FOS, just leaving Jibs as the only one not supporting the lynch. I guess the flip will tell whether this was the Best Town Wagon Ever or whether there's scum laughing somewhere in back.
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Post Post #486 (isolation #42) » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:22 am

Post by shannon »

No need to guess, i posted about it - check my iso

(I don't know whether you know but if you click ISO next to the post number, it shows only posts by that player in the current game)
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Post Post #496 (isolation #43) » Tue Aug 23, 2016 2:33 pm

Post by shannon »

In post 495, PenguinPower wrote:
In post 493, Chrimi wrote:That's.. very interesting? So we've got a JK, BP or both.
Wait...why just those two? Could there not also be a Doctor?
There totally could be a doctor.
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Post Post #500 (isolation #44) » Tue Aug 23, 2016 7:08 pm

Post by shannon »

I thought this was a bit weird at the time and now I think it's weirder given no-one died overnight, so here's a recap of D1 lynching. The quotes are spoilered in the bottom. This wasn't meant to be a massive post but it just grew that way.

- I respond to Jibs' question about the lynch pool, stating I'd like to lynch one of AF, 0x40, and Chrimi.
- Chrimi votes AF
- PP votes 0x40
- Jibs votes 0x40 and declares it L-2, questions whether the TNE wagon has scum on it
- Jibs suggests it's too easy for scum to hammer their buddy because we all want the day to end
- I say I'm waiting for the VC before I vote (implied: I want to vote 0x40 but don't want to accidentally hammer)
- vote count shows L-2
- Lengthy post by Implosion about how we need to consolidate votes on one person (it's this that twigs me, see below).
- Implosion questions 0x40
- I vote 0x40 (L-1)
- Chrimi gives intent to hammer

Going back to what I hinted in , I think Implosion gave his write up about consolidating votes as a signal to Chrimi to move to hammer 0x40 (he'd voted AF in 409 and then gives intent to hammer 0x40 in 424). We were already naturally 'consolidating', 0x40 was at L-2, and I'd said in 415 that I wanted the official VC before voting, i.e. I didn't want to accidentally hammer, so my intention to vote him to L-1 was clear. So what was the point of Implosion's post about consolidating, other than to signal a scum buddy that hammering was OK? Why did implosion basically tell us to stick with the wagon in 418, ask heaps of question of 0x40 in 419, and then not vote?

Bolded in here are the weird bits of implosions posts for me:
Spoiler:
In post 418, implosion wrote:
Jibs wrote:I'm kind of stuck in confbias mode on imp right now. Before I opened the thread I was thinking "if imp digs in his heels on pp then he's mafia, but if he reevaluates then he is also mafia". I'm suspicious of the fact that he never reevaluated his townreads on me and 0x40--players who came into the game very strong and then dropped off rather conveniently.
I do want to re-evaluate you.
I still feel like 0x is probably town a bit more strongly.
But I mean, I'd
like
to re-evaluate all my reads - it's just a matter of time. I'm in my third week at a new job and am still settling in to an extent to my new apartment, so
I don't have a ton of free time
- certainly enough to play, but
not enough to re-evaluate my reads quite as much as I'd like to
ideally. It is also d1 and re-evaluating reads is usually more useful on later days when there are flips for context.

(snipped the rest, irrelevant)
In post 419, implosion wrote:
Actually scratch me being more confident on 0x than on you. I'd say you're two of my weaker reads at this point.
I think if I go with my gut at this moment the people I have no interest in lynching today are shannon, af, and chrimi.

Here comes the change of mind, now Implosion is 'around' the 0x40 wagon but not voting him for pressure

0x's jibs scumread actually feels more off to me than his chrimi read. It feels similarly like he's just latching on to something and pushing it, but it feels more like he's doing it because he's realizing people aren't interested in the chrimi push or like he feels like he's supposed to have more than one scumread at this point. It just doesn't feel like it evolved naturally
.
In post 420, implosion wrote:
Not really speaking as IC
but this is advice that's generally applicable to a lot of games:

We are starting to close in on deadline (4 days away with a replacement pending) so it might be worth it to start consolidating votes soon, within the next couple of days. It's at the point where we're not going to get a ton out of continuing the day, and I think we're going to be better off if we end the day soonish.
I think I mentioned it earlier but a lot of the stronger players on MS are of the opinion that towns often tend to drag days out longer than necessary, which can lead to apathy. This is especially true d1 when we're dragging out the day with no flipped information.

Looking a bit more at 0x
he went from slight town to "scummiest by far" on jibs in the span of 8 posts and jibs mentioning the possibility of a policy lynch in passing. Actually,

@0x40: is there any reason other than the "nice to policy" post from Jibs that caused this shift from you between and ? Because you had been calling him town, then suddenly call him the scummiest player in the game in 245 seemingly for one thing, and then six posts later in you suddenly have a plethora of reasons for scumreading Jibs that seemingly weren't influencing you at the time when you posted 237. You heavily cite his reads list seeming overconfident, but that same reads list had already been posted when you made post 237, yet you were calling him slight town at that point. I'm curious about the mental process behind your read on Jibs forming in that span of time.


I also want to look at Jibs' question, whether the TNE wagon had scum aboard, but I don't really know where to go with that. Maybe someone else can help? The wagons for reference:

TNE wagon - AF, Rocnix, implosion, Chrimi
0x40 wagon - TNE, PP, Jibs, shannon, Chrimi

Based on what I've said, I'm going to VOTE: Implosion

Here's all the posts I referred to in my big list above

Spoiler:
In post 408, shannon wrote:Jibs - Regarding the lynch pool.

To narrow it down, I'd like to lynch within the round robin, excluding TNE because his response to the wagon on him seemed so towny. So that's AF, 0x40, and Chrimi. I think that we might get useful info by picking one of these, since there's been a lot of interaction around them.

I am back and forth on Jibs and Implosion. They're both a bit too smooth for my liking, and I can't tell their alignment. Certainly, a flip from them would be revealing in some way, but I'm not sure whether it's worth the risk because they'd both be great assets to town *if* they're town.

I can't support a lynch on TNE (as above), or Rocnix (because it would just be policy at this point).
In post 409, Chrimi wrote:
In post 408, shannon wrote:Jibs - Regarding the lynch pool.

To narrow it down, I'd like to lynch within the round robin, excluding TNE because his response to the wagon on him seemed so towny. So that's AF, 0x40, and Chrimi. I think that we might get useful info by picking one of these, since there's been a lot of interaction around them.

I am back and forth on Jibs and Implosion. They're both a bit too smooth for my liking, and I can't tell their alignment. Certainly, a flip from them would be revealing in some way, but I'm not sure whether it's worth the risk because they'd both be great assets to town *if* they're town.

I can't support a lynch on TNE (as above), or Rocnix (because it would just be policy at this point).
Sounds good to me

VOTE: AF
In post 410, PenguinPower wrote:Looks like Rocnix isn't coming back, and we won't get a replacement until D2. I will not support a TNE lynch, and I'm hesitant on Chrimi and AF. I'm willing to pursue Jibs or 0x40. Jibs has been more involved, but to what end...I don't know.

UNVOTE: Rocnix
VOTE: 0x40
In post 411, Jibs wrote:Hello all.

VOTE: 0x40. I believe that is L-2.

pp: do you think the tne wagon had scum on it? I believe it was AF, Rocnix, implosion, Chrimi, and myself at the end.

tne: same question.

Chrimi: you still tne+af?
In post 413, Chrimi wrote:
In post 411, Jibs wrote:Hello all.

VOTE: 0x40. I believe that is L-2.

pp: do you think the tne wagon had scum on it? I believe it was AF, Rocnix, implosion, Chrimi, and myself at the end.

tne: same question.

Chrimi: you still tne+af?
Nah, I just dislike tne's playstyle. Not sure who AF could be with.
In post 414, Jibs wrote:It feels a little too easy for scum to vote their scumbuddy right now because they know town wants more information before the hammer. Does everyone feel okay about declaring intent if they are exceptionally confident that we are hitting scum?

PP: I see your point, only 7 town in this game.
In post 415, shannon wrote:I'm going to wait for the official VC before I vote
In post 417, innocentvillager wrote:
Mod NotesLooking for a Rocnix replacement.

Prodding 0x40.

AstralFlare is V/LA until Friday.


VOTECOUNT 1.5
Player
Being voted by (in chronological order)
Number of Votes
1. Jibs
2. AstralFlare Chrimi
1
3. PenguinPower implosion
1
4. 0x40 thenewearth, PenguinPower, Jibs
3 (L-2)
5. Rocnix
6. Chrimi 0x40
1
7. thenewearth AstralFlare, Rocnix
2
8. shannon
9. implosion


Not voting: shannon

Deadline to lynch is in (expired on 2016-08-21 21:23:28).

With 9 eligible to vote, it's 5 to lynch

Please let me know if there are errors in the VC, or have any other questions in general. Don't forget to bold such requests to me.

In post 422, shannon wrote:OK, good, VOTE: 0x40
This is L-1 (one more vote to lynch), please no one vote without explicitly stating intent and giving time for 0x40 to respond.
In post 424, Chrimi wrote:
Intent to hammer.


Please claim your role, 0x40.
In post 425, shannon wrote:I also wouldn't mind hearing from the people who are voting elsewhere, because from my end at least, 0x40 is one of a few suspects and my vote on him is partly because we're nearing deadline and need to consolidate, as Implosion says. Implosion, AF, Rocnix, do any of you have a strong town read on 0x40, or are you feeling OK about this?

(Thought: Did ScumImplosion talk about consolidation so that I would vote 0x40?)
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Post Post #508 (isolation #45) » Wed Aug 24, 2016 12:45 am

Post by shannon »

Ugh I missed the button, this is implosion 501 -

"shannon, I think calling for consolidation is still relevant even with those additional votes on 0x; it wasn't clear that the wagon was going to take off (I didn't interpret your 415 as saying you were going to vote 0x specifically), and just looking at the vote count before I posted there were three singleton votes, one 2-vote wagon, one 3-vote wagon, and one non-vote - hardly consolidated".
In post 502, Chrimi wrote:The reason for wanting town to consolidate is so we don't have a no-lynch and end up with no information on Day Two, no?
OK, so Implosion, Chrimi - -

Implosion's post above (and Chrimi's defense of Implosion) states that the reason for asking for consolidation is to avoid the possibility of a no lynch at end of D1. This is fine in and of itself, it makes sense to vote *someone* rather than no one. The points I have a problem with are as follows:

1) I flat-out don't believe that implosion didn't realise I was going to vote 0x40. I had narrowed it down to three candidates, and stated I wanted to see the VC first. The only reason to see a VC first is, IMHO, to make sure you're not going to accidentally hammer. Otherwise, why does it matter what the votes are? The other two of my candidates had only one vote on them each, ergo, I was waiting to make sure that the L-2 wagon on 0x40 really was L-2. I think Implosion is a close reader and I think he would have noticed this signal.

2) Implosion's point above about the wagon distribution makes sense if you look at the VC in alone, but not if you look at the context. The two votes on TNE were the remainder of a wagon that was disbanding, remember? One of the two votes on TNE was part of the 'round robin' four players all voting one another, and the other vote was the AFK Rocnix. I don't believe Implosion thought L-3 on TNE would be a plausible, growing wagon, let alone a competing wagon to the L-2 on 0x40. Especially since two of the votes on 0x40 happened within ten posts of Implosion calling for us to consolidate.

3) Implosion calls the wagons 'hardly consolidated', but I said that we were
starting
to consolidate of our own accord. Again, immediately prior to my checking the VC, there were two votes on 0x40 in quick succession. This to me suggests that we were getting organised around one candidate.

4) Why, if the priority to lynch and get info, did implosion ask 0x40 questions, and not add his vote? Especially since 0x40 was at L-2, and Implosion didn't consider this a 'sure' wagon? An info seeking vote could have really helped put the pressure on 0x40 to give us useable stuff instead of just attitude.

I'm keen to hear anyone else's thoughts on this.
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Post Post #511 (isolation #46) » Wed Aug 24, 2016 1:58 am

Post by shannon »

All I can say is that I just played with Implosion (we were both town) and he seems different here. He seems, in my limited experience, like a really good player and a really close reader. I expect him to pick up on things like my intended vote, and he says he didn't. I expect him to remember that TNE's wagon was disbanding, not building up. If someone else made those sorts of mistakes I'd expect him to call them out on it, so for him to make the mistakes himself suggests to me that they're scum and not actual mistakes.
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Post Post #522 (isolation #47) » Wed Aug 24, 2016 12:39 pm

Post by shannon »

In post 521, Chrimi wrote:
In post 520, PenguinPower wrote:
In post 509, Chrimi wrote:Me forgetting this setup might have a doctor is suspicious? Oh boy.
Why would it be weird for someone to see a scumslip in that?
How is it a scumslip? If anything it's a "I'm obviously not a doctor" slip
Initially I thought that forgetting the doctor might have been due to Chrimi having one particular scum role, but then I looked at the matrix and saw that there could be other town PRs with that role, so nope, not a scum slip.
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Post Post #526 (isolation #48) » Wed Aug 24, 2016 1:18 pm

Post by shannon »

Congratulations TNE, your role fishing has put you next in line to be ISOd! It's not the fishing per se, it's the fact that you cautioned against it earlier:
In post 473, thenewearth wrote:Nah its because that post was almost either

role fishing,
LAMIST post, PR controlling

All 3 points are
scummy
(when I ask what the best thing to do is)
In post 480, thenewearth wrote:
To not talk about PRs, honestly
Then today ...
In post 514, thenewearth wrote:
If it was a BP s/he should claim honestly
In post 515, thenewearth wrote:
No point in actually hiding that fact

Hell that's the most anti-town shit you can pull especially when it reaches later days
But there *is* a point in a BP not claiming, it obscures things for scum.

Why would scum ask for a BP claim?
1) To find out whether or not they were JKed (like if I was targeted last night and said I was BP, scum would know they weren't JKed)
2) To narrow down the options for the setup

In my ISOing I see that you've done no scum hunting at all this game. You've talked about alts, called me scum for doing a reaction test, called Chrimi scum for really weak reasons, and dealt with the case made on you ... but you've never *really* made a case on anyone (there are no long posts with quotes), never really questioned anyone for non-alt-drama stuff, and you've never had a decent town read on anyone, either.

When I said that one of the four of you in that voting round-robin had an interest in keeping it going, I discounted you because your reaction to the wagon on you looked towny. But looking back after 0x40's flip, and after ISOing you, I think it was you. The drama over alts and the insult trading actually gave you a reason to post, but also a reason to avoid posting any real game-changing content.


VOTE: TNE - my vote stays until I see you post some real content, not just one or two liners
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Post Post #527 (isolation #49) » Wed Aug 24, 2016 1:20 pm

Post by shannon »

In post 524, Chrimi wrote:This means if you're a protective role you better save my sweet ass tonight.
Chrimi was that a real claim?! :eek: Have you considered the possibility that scum targeted someone else and were blocked?
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Post Post #528 (isolation #50) » Wed Aug 24, 2016 2:00 pm

Post by shannon »

Hang on, I just thought of this, TNE's role fishing and Chrimi's response make perfect sense if TNE is scum part of a team with a Mafia Roleblocker (column A). Here's how I got there.

I think there's no reason for town to want to know about their BP at this point. So the question is automatically scummy to me. TNE asked specifically about a BP as reason for no NK, which makes no sense if he's scum in 1 or C.

So he's either -

In a goon/goon team and trying to choose between B or 3
In a goon/RB team trying to choose between A or 2

If he's goon/goon, he doesn't need to ask about the BP preventing the NK. There's no other protective role in 3 and none at all in B. So that's out.

If he's goon/RB, he's trying to establish whether the kill was prevented by a BP or JK in A, or by a doctor in 2. So it makes sense to ask about a BP, because asking about a doc would draw suspicion.

TL;DR: Since Chrimi confirmed being a BP, we're in A, and TNE is in a team that includes a goon and a roleblocker. TNE for the rope, please.
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Post Post #530 (isolation #51) » Wed Aug 24, 2016 5:38 pm

Post by shannon »

Quickie reply because I'm on lunch -

1) I'm going to ISO Chrimi next and see whether there's anything worthy of a NK attempt. From memory nothing sticks out but I'll re-read in light of my new theory. (It's also possible that Chrimi is having a gambit of some sort here).

2) I'm drawing strong conclusions because usually, I equivocate over everything and it's not doing me any favours. This has led me to be obv town in every single game (including the scum ones). I've never been lynched, but I've also never won as town. So, time to shake things up a bit.

3) I acknowledge that my case is mostly circumstantial, but I think all those circumstances add up. We have someone who's not doing any significant scum hunting, has no town reads, and was the D1 first wagon. He discouraged me from giving advice to PRs, then comes back today asking whether we have a BP amongst us. I can't see any town advantage to knowing that info. I can see definite scum advantage. Assuming that the question was in fact scummy, by POE it is most likely to have come from a team with a roleblocker, and if this is the case, we need to 1) lynch TNE ASAP, and 2) prevent the scum team from finding any hint of our JK. If Chrimi was lying about being BP, same goes, but substitute 'other PRs' for JK.
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Post Post #535 (isolation #52) » Wed Aug 24, 2016 10:12 pm

Post by shannon »

Put your vote where your mouth is Cass, let's get some pressure happening.

I don't mind the votes on PP either, but I want answers from TNE primarily.
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Post Post #541 (isolation #53) » Wed Aug 24, 2016 11:41 pm

Post by shannon »

Alrighty, Chrimi ISO examined. TL;DR, a few very minor things bothered me, but overall it reads town.

The slightly bothersome things:
- Deflecting the question about not voting in
- Overall defensive tone, defending herself more than scum hunting (but not not-hunting, just really caught up in defending)
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Post Post #544 (isolation #54) » Thu Aug 25, 2016 12:31 am

Post by shannon »

In post 542, Chrimi wrote:
In post 541, shannon wrote:Alrighty, Chrimi ISO examined. TL;DR, a few very minor things bothered me, but overall it reads town.

The slightly bothersome things:
- Deflecting the question about not voting in
- Overall defensive tone, defending herself more than scum hunting (but not not-hunting, just really caught up in defending)
As per my meta. :wink:
OMG but what about your aaaaaalts
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Post Post #545 (isolation #55) » Thu Aug 25, 2016 12:43 am

Post by shannon »

This is in reply to PP 543 - -

The answer to why you'd start or hop on a wagon is to help find scum. Starting a wagon puts people on notice that they need to participate and be accountable for their actions. Hopping on a wagon adds pressure to someone who's already under suspicion. It helps us to get a response. (See, two votes are on you, and you're responding). If everyone waits and sees, no one does anything, You have a vote, use it.
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Post Post #547 (isolation #56) » Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:22 am

Post by shannon »

PEdit:

Just saw Astral Flare's post pop up ahead of me hitting this one, and he's voted PP. I'm going to post my ISO check anyway, because I think that's the most honest thing to do. I can't vote PP, I can't see any scum motivation in his posts. What am I missing?

The other thing I want to note, AF, is that if you think the team could be Implosion and PP it might be best to vote for Implosion as he's most experienced. If those two are a team, I think PP will struggle without Implosion where as the reverse might not be so true.

***

ISOing PP -

I get newbie town vibes rather than scum vibes. Reading back, I think his response to Implosion's 531 is fair.

389- "Absent a scumslip, significant new information, or us getting within 72 hours of deadline, I don't see my vote changing until Rocnix - or her slot - returns and starts participating. "

410 - "Looks like Rocnix isn't coming back, and we won't get a replacement until D2. I will not support a TNE lynch, and I'm hesitant on Chrimi and AF. I'm willing to pursue Jibs or 0x40. Jibs has been more involved, but to what end...I don't know.

UNVOTE: Rocnix
VOTE: 0x40"

I can see why at this later stage in the day, PP changes his vote off of Rocnix. So overall, townish?
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Post Post #549 (isolation #57) » Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:50 am

Post by shannon »

OK, here's a question for everyone. All else being equal, at the end of D1, who did you think would be the D2 lynch and why?
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Post Post #556 (isolation #58) » Thu Aug 25, 2016 3:01 am

Post by shannon »

To clarify for AF in 550 - I don't mind the votes on PP because I think we need to get more participation from him. However, I would prefer the votes to be on TNE because I think we really really need to see more from him, and especially, pressure for him to explain his call for a role claim.
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Post Post #557 (isolation #59) » Thu Aug 25, 2016 3:02 am

Post by shannon »

PP please don't go blindly forward with a town read you can't back away from.
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Post Post #559 (isolation #60) » Thu Aug 25, 2016 3:20 am

Post by shannon »

OK that's two, let's get it rolling. All aboard the TNE wagon, let's get some answers!
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Post Post #579 (isolation #61) » Thu Aug 25, 2016 2:51 pm

Post by shannon »

Chrimi did you receive notification that you'd been hit but survived? Or did you receive no notification and are assuming that you were hit since there's no NK?
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Post Post #581 (isolation #62) » Thu Aug 25, 2016 3:05 pm

Post by shannon »

In post 563, thenewearth wrote:Someone please tell me they can counterclaim Chrimi
In post 564, thenewearth wrote:I'll explain when there's actually no counterclaim
In post 565, thenewearth wrote:Remember guys,

Matrix6 is PR-solvable
TNE, Enough with the cryptic crap, and the contradictions. Why do you want to lynch our PR claim when is also a pseudo innocent-child?
What do you mean about matrix 6 being PR-solvable? (Can our IC throw any light on this?)

In post 570, Cass wrote:Do you mean you want to lynch Chrimi today? Because you also just called her a pseudo-innocent-child, right? Or just that you would have had the claim come on a later day?

For now, because of which makes sense:

UNVOTE: The New Earth

Would like to hear everyones opinion about this situation.
My opinion is that you shouldn't unvote for exactly the reason you stated in the start of this post. Why is TNE wanting Chrimi's lynch on the one hand, and calling her conf town on the other? (That's how I read the pseudo-innocent child comment).
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Post Post #589 (isolation #63) » Thu Aug 25, 2016 6:47 pm

Post by shannon »

OK, so why claim BP then, and make a fuss about being protected? Surely scum were just as likely to think they'd been doctored, JKed, etc?
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Post Post #590 (isolation #64) » Thu Aug 25, 2016 6:52 pm

Post by shannon »

If PP is right in 586, that we had gone past the prod deadline and that's why he changed votes, then this is the second time that I've noticed Implosion misusing post timelines to try to imagine reasons for things. The first is when I asked him about questioning but not voting 0x40, and he blamed it on there being two competing wagons - the first of which was pretty clearly disbanding after already reaching L-1.
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Post Post #591 (isolation #65) » Thu Aug 25, 2016 7:12 pm

Post by shannon »

In post 584, implosion wrote:I'm also not sure what she means by it being PR-solvable.
In post 2, innocentvillager wrote:
ABC
1
Town Jailkeeper
Vanilla Townie
Mafia Goon
2
Mafia Roleblocker
Town Cop
Town Doctor
3
Town 1-Shot Bulletproof
Mafia Goon
Town Tracker
The existence of a BP claim doesn't tell us a ton; it's not confirmable in the event that we're in setup 1, the fact that there's two setups with only one power role means that having two PR claims doesn't make them both true. And even having three PR claims you can't always figure out which one is fake (if there's bp+jk+tracker claims it could be that the jk is fake, the tracker is fake, or both the bp+tracker are fake).

So yeah really idk what she means.
I'm not even sure I know what PR solvable means - is it that certain PRs can solve the game, given a BP claim? Or is it that we can work out from fake claims which PRs are in the game? The other interpretation I have of it is that TNE is signalling that she's noticed a soft PR claim, and in light of Chrimi's BP claim, she can solve the game. Or is it something else? I'd really appreciate clarification here because I think it's interesting from a theory standpoint, as well as with regard to this game specifically.
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Post Post #600 (isolation #66) » Thu Aug 25, 2016 9:54 pm

Post by shannon »

Everyone on TNE!
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Post Post #601 (isolation #67) » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:06 pm

Post by shannon »

@Implosion I'm referring to the cases you tried to make in and .

Your points about PP and about me both rely on recounts of D1 that look plausible on the face of things, but are able to be shown incorrect.

In response to my questions, you claimed that there were two competing wagons and that's why you didn't vote 0x40 when you questioned him late D1. But looking back at the day, one of them wasn't an active wagon - it was two votes on a wagon that people were moving *off* of, and one of those votes belonged to the inactive Rocnix.

In PP's case, you've tried to make it look like he was committed to voting Rocnix and then jumped, and that's plausible on the face of things, because PP did put a time limit on his support of Rocnix. But PP has shown that he changed vote because Rocnix went beyond prod during that period and was going to be replaced, so staying on her wagon didn't make sense. Which I think is fair enough. (PP could still be scum, but this act wasn't scummy IMHO).
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Post Post #608 (isolation #68) » Fri Aug 26, 2016 3:51 am

Post by shannon »

TNE I don't get it, so if I make guesses will you walk me through? In the spirit of helpfulness?

Here's what I've got -

Scum is unlikely to claim BP D2 because they'd have to explain why they are alive for the rest of the game, i.e why two shots weren't taken on them.

Scum are more likely to claim BP pre-LYLO because by then they'd have a better idea of whether such a claim was even plausible, because there'd usually be at least one PR flip. So like, if a doctor had flipped, no point scum trying to claim BP.

So the early claim makes Chrimi more likely to be town?

That's all I've got, am I on the right track?
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Post Post #609 (isolation #69) » Fri Aug 26, 2016 3:54 am

Post by shannon »

Also, I copied this from the guide to being an IC - you don't have to have 'tonnes of experience' with the setup.

A player that finishes any five games, with at least two outside of The Road to Rome, and has at least 3 months on-site may apply to be an Inexperience Challenged (IC) player.
Replacing out of a game does not count as finished!
At least one of your 5 games must be a Newbie game, either as a Newbie or as an SE.
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Post Post #617 (isolation #70) » Fri Aug 26, 2016 5:26 pm

Post by shannon »

Can we please get more votes on TNE so we can get an actual real explanation?
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Post Post #619 (isolation #71) » Fri Aug 26, 2016 7:46 pm

Post by shannon »

Is anyone around? I feel like we need to have a good chat about this in something like real time in order to sort it out. I feel like I keep missing everyone because of the time zones.
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Post Post #622 (isolation #72) » Fri Aug 26, 2016 8:15 pm

Post by shannon »

What I mean is that being online at different times is allowing TNE to dodge questions. I don't think she even replied to the first case I made on her, where I took her questioning in combination with the BP claim to mean that she was mafia on a team with a RB. Maybe she thought it was trivial enough not to deserve a response, IDK.

I just feel like at the moment we're mostly talking past each other, and people are conveniently ignoring points made against them because the stilted conversation allows them to.
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Post Post #625 (isolation #73) » Fri Aug 26, 2016 9:49 pm

Post by shannon »

I will only move off TNE if we get to a situation like yesterday, where we're at deadline and need to get the lynch. If I am tonight's NK, lynch TNE tomorrow.
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Post Post #628 (isolation #74) » Sat Aug 27, 2016 1:40 am

Post by shannon »

More Lynchable

TNE - reasons already given
Implosion - reasons already given, though TNE suggesting we lynch him puts me off a bit. I still like these two for a team
Drone - nullish
Cass - nullish
PP - I don't think he's scummy but it seems there's a wagon
Astralflare - looks pretty towny to me
Chrimi - uncontested BP claim, don't lynch the closest we have to conf town

Less Lynchable
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Post Post #629 (isolation #75) » Sat Aug 27, 2016 1:44 am

Post by shannon »

Oh and in reply to Drone 612, a question I haven't seen anyone else answer -

I personally would use FOS if a player is at L-1 or L-2 and I'm thinking of joining their wagon, but want to give them the opportunity to redeem themselves. Sometimes (IMHO) I think if a wagon looks too certain, people just give up and accept it, which is bad for town.

Some people use FOS for their second scum read (so voting someone and pointing FOS at someone else), or they might have two solid scum reads and then some other 'dodgy looking' people they will FOS, making FOS a step below null but above a full scum read.

You should use FOS, or not, however you think best.
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Post Post #633 (isolation #76) » Sat Aug 27, 2016 4:55 am

Post by shannon »

Replying to Cass - -

"Hm, I think if TNE is scum, it's with Chrime, and they set up the current situation together. But if so, at least one of us would know Chrime was lying. It's not impossible, but for today I'm going with assuming this is not the case."

Agreed, I don't think TNE and Chrimi are a team. I don't support a Chrimi lynch without TNE going first because I think at this stage we have to allow Chrimi's unchallenged claim to stand. But, I think the flip will be revealing. (If TNE flips town, question Chrimi strongly about the claim).


@shannon would you in general be ok with delaying a TNE lynch until Day 3, or do you feel it is too risky?


Well, if I'm right about TNE being scum I think I'm toast tonight and it might make things a bit difficult for me to get him lynched D3! I want to point out that he still hasn't responded to my very first case against him.

I also want to point out that we could potentially lose this N3, and we need to be very careful to lynch correctly and to defend our PRs.

At the moment we are 6:2 town:scum, and getting it wrong today would make it 5:2, with 4:2 after a night kill. A mislynch D3 would leave 3:2, and then the night kill hands it to scum.

Based on Chrimi's claim, we have either a JK or a Tracker in this setup. I'm going to do some reading about what our optimal plays are here, given that a role claim would eliminate any advantage we have as our power roles aren't protectable.

The other possibility is that Chrimi sensed what TNE was up to with her questions about the BP, and quickly claimed so as to protect the Doc + Cop, and those two roles are keeping quiet because they know Chrimi is taking one for the team. If this is the case I would encourage those two players to keep their roles quiet for as long as possible, but cop, if you exist, please don't forget to share your results before you die!
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Post Post #637 (isolation #77) » Sat Aug 27, 2016 4:17 pm

Post by shannon »

With TNE at L-1 (I'm just assuming that PP's count is right), here are the questions I'd like answers to:

1) Why draw us in to role speculation, after calling it anti-town late on D1? My contention is that you are scum and your team was thrown off by lack of a NK, so you're now willing to risk questions like that.

2) Why did you fail to address my initial accusation that you were scum and fishing for roles? I even pinned it down to which team I thought you were in. If you think it's a ridiculous accusation, you could at least take the time to explain why.

3) After her uncontested BP claim, why call Chrimi as pseudo innocent child, and then say you'd like to lynch her? This seems like a big contradiction.

4) What do you mean by PR solvable, and why did you try to paint implosion as scum for not knowing what it means?

5) Why are you being cryptic instead of engaging with the rest of us in a productive way? Saying thinks like 'you'll learn one day' doesn't help the town team you're playing with now. I'm reading over your posts again and I can't see anything that hints at a PR crumb, so there's got to be some other reason.

I think it's coming to a time when you need to make a substantive contribution to the game or you're going to get lynched. If you're town, this is your chance to make a real case to defend yourself. Even better, make a substantive case on someone else. I won't accept three line posts, cryptic stuff, and 'you'll see' as answers. Your play isn't doing anything to help town, and I regret that I was one who town read you yesterday.
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Post Post #639 (isolation #78) » Sat Aug 27, 2016 11:56 pm

Post by shannon »

OK, a question for Drone:

If Jibs was a scum read ('target for a lynch right now') and Cass in the same slot is a town read, what makes you decide that the slot is town? Could it not also be that Jibs was just a bad scum player, but Cass is an excellent one?

This bit I don't quite understand, could you please give me a simpler version? Are you saying that Cass is doing good scum hunting and that's why you read the slot as town now?

"Cass whatsoever, covered it up with her constant, logical and reasonable scum hunting (if it is towards me, yes.)"

PS - don't be afraid to ask questions, even of your town reads, even if they seem silly
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Post Post #645 (isolation #79) » Sun Aug 28, 2016 1:37 am

Post by shannon »

Why didn't you vote Chrimi then?
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Post Post #646 (isolation #80) » Sun Aug 28, 2016 1:42 am

Post by shannon »

And can you please explain what you mean by PR solvable?
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Post Post #648 (isolation #81) » Sun Aug 28, 2016 2:14 am

Post by shannon »

What do you mean by 'spiritually'? Is she giving you vibes? Are you reading bad things in your tea leaves?
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Post Post #650 (isolation #82) » Sun Aug 28, 2016 2:36 am

Post by shannon »

Can you explain why you asked for BP claims early on D2, after telling me D1 that any kind of PR fishing was scummy?
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Post Post #658 (isolation #83) » Sun Aug 28, 2016 1:20 pm

Post by shannon »

^^I'm surprised to see an intent to hammer at this point too, can we please hold off from hammering but keep votes up for pressure? We still haven't got any real answers. The result is the same as D1, except without the righteous indignation. (Now I'm wondering whether Drone is scum with TNE and calling our bluff, because he knows it's early and someone will back away from the hammer. I've made exactly this play myself, so I'm somewhat alert to it).

@AF - "Also rereading shannon's list of questions there's a lot of leading questions worded and supplemented with info that implies she's scum." - - is the implication here that I'm scum, or that I have info that would show TNE is?
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Post Post #670 (isolation #84) » Mon Aug 29, 2016 12:55 am

Post by shannon »

In post 651, thenewearth wrote:If there was an NK there wouldn't be any problems
I think I can sort this out once and for all, TNE would you like to claim a role please?
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Post Post #671 (isolation #85) » Mon Aug 29, 2016 1:24 am

Post by shannon »

In post 343, thenewearth wrote:Yeah because making it easier for scum to NK the towniest player is the greatest contribution

bzzt
I think it's fair to say I'm the towniest player at the moment, and I've got nothing to fear from being NKed, so would you please share the rest of your reads now?
In post 662, thenewearth wrote:Also lynch implosion plz
As best I can tell, your vote on Implosion came from him not understanding the PR-solvable thing, which seems like weak point. Do you have more on him?
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Post Post #673 (isolation #86) » Mon Aug 29, 2016 3:02 pm

Post by shannon »

Alright, no point hanging out on a case where I'm not going to get anything.

VOTE: Cass
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Post Post #680 (isolation #87) » Mon Aug 29, 2016 11:23 pm

Post by shannon »

In post 676, AstralFlare wrote:
In post 625, shannon wrote:I will only move off TNE if we get to a situation like yesterday, where we're at deadline and need to get the lynch. If I am tonight's NK, lynch TNE tomorrow.
In post 673, shannon wrote:Alright, no point hanging out on a case where I'm not going to get anything.

VOTE: Cass
?

I'll get around to everything else later
It is what it sounds like, I've basically given up on getting anything useful from TNE. I agree with Implosion's comment that she's deliberately trying to be inscrutable. The problem with that, for me, is that I can't see the town motivation for it. Scum already know who the townies are, so why bother trying to obscure one's towniness from town? Only makes sense if you're scum.

I really want to know @Chrimi if you're sticking with your BP claim?
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Post Post #683 (isolation #88) » Tue Aug 30, 2016 2:13 am

Post by shannon »

Do you think there's any reason scum would have targeted you last night?
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Post Post #684 (isolation #89) » Tue Aug 30, 2016 2:18 am

Post by shannon »

Also FWIW there's a way you're not conf town, if we're in 1 then no townie would claim a PR to counter you and there's no way that scum would say 'nuh-uh, we're both goons'.
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Post Post #690 (isolation #90) » Tue Aug 30, 2016 3:46 am

Post by shannon »

*sigh* I know it's not the done thing but everyone knows I'm town so I've got a target painted on my back, and by the look of things everyone also knows I'm a PR. Since any close-reading scum will have deduced my role from the combination of my questions and their own role combo, I'm going to be up front so that town gets at least one piece of info before this potential speed lynch (it's my bed time so my last post for tonight).

I'm jailkeeper and I jailed TNE last night.

This should explain:
1) Why I'm suspicious of TNE, her PR fishing, and her lack of engagement with my questions
2) Why I'm suspicious of Chrimi's claim for BP

From my POV, the options are:

1) Scum targeted Chrimi and she really is BP - in this case we have a roleblocker and goon, so my role is of little use given that everyone has worked out that I'm a PR
2) Chrimi is scum and fake claiming
3) Chrimi is town and fake claiming

and/or

5) TNE is scum - knows I'm on to her and was going to off me, so I haven't lost anything by claiming
6) TNE is town and I saved her

So for lynches:

TNE first - if TNE flips town, I will be very surprised if Chrimi is town. If scum, yay! Double yay if she's a roleblocker.

Chrimi first - If she's a BP, I still don't get why she claimed. If she's scum, yay! If she's vanilla town, I don't get why she claimed and her doing so has pretty much resulted in me outing my role, so yeah. (If she'd stayed quiet I could have gambited as a cop, but I didn't get that option. And Chrimi seems fairly experienced, moreso than me, so I think she would know that. The whole thing seems like a gambit to get the PR to state their role in order to be believed.).

The more I think of it, Chrimi needs to be today's lynch.

VOTE: Chrimi

If she flips scum, come back to Cass tomorrow. If she's town, lynch TNE. That's the best I've got.
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Post Post #703 (isolation #91) » Tue Aug 30, 2016 4:28 am

Post by shannon »

Chrimi
Assuming your claim is real, scum would have known I was faking if I claimed tracker.

If your BP claim is TRUE, then based on my role, we have to be in A. That means scum has a role blocker, and there are only two options for roleblocker, A or 2... and by claiming BP so confidently and refusing to back away from it, you let scum know that we were not in 2. My claim just levells things for town so that they know too.

Also, I have an idea: I'm dead anyway, so lynch me today unless you're super sure about your scum choice. Then, instead of scum NKing me, they have to choose someone else - and that choice might be revealing.


(Yes I got out of bed just to write that)
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Post Post #729 (isolation #92) » Tue Aug 30, 2016 12:44 pm

Post by shannon »

In post 708, Cass wrote:Wtf is this game??

@Drone - you're not even trying anymore, or what? How am I bussing tne by making cases on you and explosion, having drone/imp/pp as scum top three and refusing to lynch her today? Was that a scumslip about you bussing her?

A jailkeeper claim, oh why... Oh my. I guess that means we don't lynch Shannon or Chrimi now.
Btw, I thought I had spotted breadcrumbing for tracker from shannon, but w/e. Doesn't matter anymore now.

So scum is either TNE, or whoever targeted her, right? Oh, or neither, if Chrimi was the target. Jeeze, this really isn't helping. Shannon just got herself needlessly nk-ed is what it looks like to me.

To explain further why I claimed - I am looking at the game from the perspective of scum, who have more info than we do. And there have been a few people commenting that my case on TNE looked like I was acting on information that they didn't have, ergo, the thought I was a PR of some kind.

Chrimi's BP claim, if true, narrows down the options for scum - if they have a goon and a roleblocker, Chrimi's uncced claim puts them in A, and if they're goon/goon her claim puts them in 3.

So - if scum are any of the people who commented that I had more info (or if they knew it but are now denying it because it looks town), they already knew my role, based on Chrimi's claim and their own team combo.

The reason I claimed, then, is because if Chrimi's claim is true then based on my role we're in A, and scum already know it. And I think they probably knew that I'm the PR - - if TNE is scum, they'd be almost certain of it, since I made that early case on her D2 when no one else saw it.
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Post Post #730 (isolation #93) » Tue Aug 30, 2016 1:00 pm

Post by shannon »

Quote snippied for relevance, my comments in bold because I can't remember how to do that thing where you separate out bits of quote.
In post 710, implosion wrote:
I'm not sure why you said this:
and by the look of things everyone also knows I'm a PR.
I don't think everyone knew you were a PR and I'm not sure why you thought it. People were just townreading you because your play looks town. It looks like I'm not alone in this.

I'll go back and quote all the things if you like


Now that you're claimed there's a simple optimal play: you should announce your target beforehand and follow what you've announced if we lynch scum today. That way if you die we'll at least wind up with a clear. Although there's a roleblocker if both you and Chrimi are real so it'll only actually be a clear if we lynch the roleblocker today.

Correct - we need to make our best guess at scum today


If we lynch town today then you shouldn't necessarily follow what you announce, instead you should try to guess who will be the scum who makes the kill and jailkeep them. Although again I guess this is irrelevant if there's a roleblocker.

Correct. And if I survive until tomorrow, there's probably no roleblocker and this has implications for Chrimi's authenticity.


Actually thinking a little more the optimal PR play (for shannon) is this:
-if we lynch a townie then shannon jailkeeps arbitrarily without paying attention to who it was announced on
-if we lynch a scum roleblocker then shannon jailkeeps whatever target she announced beforehand (which she should announce for this case)
-if we lynch a goon then shannon jailkeeps Chrimi. This is because if we lynch a goon, the other scum is either a RB or a goon. If they're a RB they'll just block+kill shannon so it doesn't matter who she jailkeeps. If they're a goon then they're Chrimi.

Yes, we're on the same page - Chrimi, if you're going to unclaim BP now's the time to do it.


If we're lucky then shannon stopped the kill last night and you still have a bp shot.

This is the optimal scenario, and we can find out if it's true by lynching TNE


OK, so lynching TNE today:


-if we lynch a townie then shannon jailkeeps arbitrarily without paying attention to who it was announced on
-if we lynch a scum roleblocker then shannon jailkeeps whatever target she announced beforehand (which she should announce for this case)
-if we lynch a goon then shannon jailkeeps Chrimi. This is because if we lynch a goon, the other scum is either a RB or a goon. If they're a RB they'll just block+kill shannon so it doesn't matter who she jailkeeps. If they're a goon then they're Chrimi.
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Post Post #731 (isolation #94) » Tue Aug 30, 2016 1:11 pm

Post by shannon »

I'm posting these here to remind everyone of the D1 wagon on TNE, and to save everyone else from having to go back and find them.
In post 297, Rocnix wrote:Implosion's defense makes enough sense as town. We were reading the situation differently, so he responded in ways that didn't quite make sense to me.
UNVOTE: Implosion

VOTE: thenewearth and this time I'm going to leave it there until she does something. AstralFlare, you care about this too, so hold me to that.

Shannon, I have a bit of an oddball question for you (or anyone who would like to throw in their two cents): Who do you think is in the most danger of being nightkilled?
Votecount
Spoiler:
In post 329, innocentvillager wrote:

VOTECOUNT 1.3
Player
Being voted by (in chronological order)
Number of Votes
1. Jibs shannon
1
2. AstralFlare Chrimi
1
3. PenguinPower
4. 0x40 thenewearth
1
5. Rocnix PenguinPower
1
6. Chrimi 0x40
1
7. thenewearth AstralFlare, Rocnix, implosion
3
8. shannon
9. implosion


Not voting: Jibs

Deadline to lynch is in (expired on 2016-08-21 21:23:28).

With 9 eligible to vote, it's 5 to lynch

Please let me know if there are errors in the VC, or have any other questions in general. Don't forget to bold such requests to me.

In post 374, Jibs wrote:Alright then.

intent to hammer thenewearth


Let me know if I need to fix the formatting there.

I'm feeling very strongly that Chrimi and tne are opposite alignment now, and I will wait quite a bit before hammering (at least 24 hours, since we have lots of time). I'm fairly certain about what tne will claim, but I'm curious about whether she has a convincing argument that Chrimi is scum.
In post 375, AstralFlare wrote:
In post 374, Jibs wrote:I'm feeling very strongly that Chrimi and tne are opposite alignment now
I wouldn't say so. Yes, if TNE flips scum, Chrimi is pretty much confirmed town. There's no reason for scum!Chrimi to push a wagon so hard on her partner over something as common as lurking.

Rocnix: You mentioned in your readlist that TNE was null. So was your vote of TNE several pages after to pressure into more activity, or because you genuinely thought her as scum?
votecount
Spoiler:
In post 376, innocentvillager wrote:
Prodding Rocnix.


VOTECOUNT 1.4
Player
Being voted by (in chronological order)
Number of Votes
1. Jibs
2. AstralFlare
3. PenguinPower
4. 0x40 thenewearth
1
5. Rocnix PenguinPower
1
6. Chrimi 0x40
1
7. thenewearth AstralFlare, Rocnix, implosion, Chrimi
4 (L-1!!)
8. shannon
9. implosion


Not voting: Jibs, shannon

Deadline to lynch is in (expired on 2016-08-21 21:23:28).

With 9 eligible to vote, it's 5 to lynch

Please let me know if there are errors in the VC, or have any other questions in general. Don't forget to bold such requests to me.

In post 377, Jibs wrote:Hello all, couldn't sleep.

I rescind my intent to hammer


All the cryptic stuff kind of fried my brain, so I forgot about the basic mechanics of the lynch. I am very worried about there being scum on that wagon.

Please don't claim tne.
In post 380, Jibs wrote:VOTE: implosion
PenguinPower wrote: 4 on...why are you suddenly very worried?
Part of it is that Chrimi seems really nonchalant about voting with her top scum, and AF is quite nonchalant about voting with imp, who he is suspicious of. I also worry about imp's vote, since it feels like he adjusted his reads so that he wouldn't have to vote with his top scum. Finally, I agree that it would be very weird for Rocnix to play this way as scum, but this feels like a weird game to begin with.

To be honest, tne could definitely still be scum, as per shannon and Chrimi's points. I don't agree at all with her comments about night kills, if I'm looking at the game right, and she needs some reads.
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Post Post #733 (isolation #95) » Tue Aug 30, 2016 2:39 pm

Post by shannon »

Well, agree to disagree then, what's done is done, let's get the best outcome we can from here.
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Post Post #744 (isolation #96) » Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:39 pm

Post by shannon »

In post 738, AstralFlare wrote:
3) Chrimi scum and fakeclaiming.
Nah 75% chance she will be counterclaimed, I don't think scum would pull out such a risky gambit.

4) Chrimi town and fakeclaiming
This one is more likely, although I don't get the motivation for doing so? It's obvious that there isn't a doctor/cop pair to protect this game since Shannon already claimed JK. If someone could explain why they think this is possible to me—

Regarding 3)

If Chrimi is scum in a team with a roleblocker, it's only 50/50 as to the counterclaim - she's either in A (where there is an actual BP) or 2 (where there's a cop and doc, who will probably not counter claim her but let it go on long enough for them to get results).

The game would be to stay alive long enough to NK the PRs, without having them out you as a fake claimer - and then to get away with the fake claim by saying you were trying to hide other town PRs.


Regarding 4 )

Scum are currently the only ones who can truly know whether Chrimi's claim is real. Last night's kill was blocked, and only scum know who was targeted. If they targeted Chrimi, she's a real BP. If they didn't target Chrimi, then I did the saving and TNE was either the killer or the target. If their target *wasn't* Chrimi, the only way anyone can know the veracity of her claim is by being scum in a goon/goon team, which would but us in 1 not A.
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Post Post #759 (isolation #97) » Wed Aug 31, 2016 12:50 am

Post by shannon »

In post 747, AstralFlare wrote:Shannon, is your 744 trying to push for a lynch onto Chrimi?
No, not at all. Just explaining that scum had more info than we did, the second that Chrimi claimed BP. (If her BP claim is true)
In post 748, Drone wrote:Basically, it's all statistics. The chance Chrimi was shot/tne was saved/tne way blocked. Statistically the chances are the same.
But I return to my former question, why would mafia target tne?
Yep, so we've got to look at motivation. I can't see why mafia would target TNE.
In post 752, Cass wrote:Also, if Chrimi is lying, we must be in row 1 (2 goons, 1 JK) and in that case TNE is her partner and they planned this together to find the JK (and it worked). This scenario would also lead to a TNE lynch today.

Thinking all these scenario's through makes me understand why Shannon claimed and I now support the decision. I see no way Shannon won't be the NK so it's good she spoke up today.

Thanks! It's worth noting, though, that if Chrimi is town and fake claiming then scum
know it
- she's only BP if they've got a roleblocker, so if they don't, she's fake.

In post 753, AstralFlare wrote:
In post 749, Cass wrote:I checked Chrimi day 1. No serious interactions with Rocnix/Drone, some with Implosion, Astralflare, PP (and others, not trying to be complete here) - bottomline: she does make sense as NK target,
You're making the assumption that scum will only night kill people who are suspicious of them. When that is very often not the case! I will repeat this again,
Chrimi was the best target for a day 1 NK.


Why? Because she was the most aggressive. Because she was the most active. Because she was being pretty universally town read. Who has the biggest potential to find scum? Someone who is able to put pressure. Someone who is able to do so frequently and regularly.
Someone who is conf town, and is able to use that credibility to influence people to follow her vote.
In other words, Chrimi.

Do you get where I am going with this?
I see that you've slipped - Chrimi didn't claim BP until D2, so scum would not have seen her as conf town on D1.
VOTE: Astral Flare
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Post Post #761 (isolation #98) » Wed Aug 31, 2016 1:28 am

Post by shannon »

I'm now one of those nerds with a spreadsheet :nerd:

We are currently 6:2 Town:Scum.

Assuming we mislynch D2:


- And scum kill town every night and we mislynch every day: D3 is 5P LYLO (3:2)

- And NKs succeed but we lynch correctly every day: Town wins D4

- And there are mixed wins: (N2 ends 4:2, D3 4:1, N3 3:1), D4 is MYLO, assuming no lynch an a successful NK, D5 is 3:1 LYLO


Assuming we lynch correctly D2:


- And scum kill town every night and we mislynch every day: D4 start is MYLO, D5 is 2:1 LYLO

- And NKs succeed but we lynch correctly every day: Town wins D4

- And there are mixed wins: (N2 ends 5:1, D3 4:1, N3 3:1) D4 start is MYLO at 3:1, assuming no lynch and a successful NK, D5 is 3:1 LYLO
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Post Post #762 (isolation #99) » Wed Aug 31, 2016 1:29 am

Post by shannon »

In post 760, Drone wrote:Lol. I only noticed it just now. But also the description of Chrimi day 1 doesn't add up to me. She didn't seem so towny, dominant and scum hunting. She was a bit closer to tne's common read.
What do you mean, you only just noticed what now?
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Post Post #764 (isolation #100) » Wed Aug 31, 2016 1:37 am

Post by shannon »

Yep, and I think the fact that she's using 'was' and not 'is' makes it clear that she's definitely talking about N1. So I think AF has slipped. Join me in voting for pressure?
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Post Post #766 (isolation #101) » Wed Aug 31, 2016 1:58 am

Post by shannon »

I think you missed what I was pointing out. It's nothing to do with vote moving on anyone's part. It's that AF makes a big deal about how Chrimi would have been a good N1 target because Chrimi was conf town - but Chrimi didn't claim BP until D2. So that point is false and I think it comes from Scum AF trying to help Scum Chrimi.
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Post Post #770 (isolation #102) » Wed Aug 31, 2016 2:55 am

Post by shannon »

Feel free to wagon me, I've never been lynched!
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Post Post #781 (isolation #103) » Wed Aug 31, 2016 11:50 am

Post by shannon »

In post 775, Chrimi wrote:
In post 730, shannon wrote:
In post 710, implosion wrote: If we lynch town today then you shouldn't necessarily follow what you announce, instead you should try to guess who will be the scum who makes the kill and jailkeep them. Although again I guess this is irrelevant if there's a roleblocker.

Correct. And if I survive until tomorrow, there's probably no roleblocker and this has implications for Chrimi's authenticity.
What's that Shannon? As long as scum kills someone other than you, scum can get an easy mislynch on me tomorrow?

You know the roleblocker doesn't even need to use their ability to kill you, right? Unless you happen to know who is scum and which one will make the night kill (which you don't because for some ungodly reason you think conftown is scum)

They don't even need roleblocker to kill you. They might even go ahead and kill someone random just so you'll go "See Chrimi is scum!!" tomorrow and go for an all out mislynch on town.

PEDIT: What? Penguin making sense? Looks like I need to look over my reads again..
Chrimi if there's no roleblocker it's possible for me to guess who the scum is that's coming to kill me, and jailkeep them. Hence, me being alive tomorrow. If there *is* a roleblocker I'd expect them to both roleblock me and kill me just to be sure. Can you see a scenario where it makes sense for scum to leave me a live, with info about who I jailkept, for another day, vs. killing me? No?

In post 776, Cass wrote:
In post 766, shannon wrote:I think you missed what I was pointing out. It's nothing to do with vote moving on anyone's part. It's that AF makes a big deal about how Chrimi would have been a good N1 target because Chrimi was conf town - but Chrimi didn't claim BP until D2. So that point is false and I think it comes from Scum AF trying to help Scum Chrimi.
Shannon, there is no logical scenario where Chrimi is scum and Tne is town (because of your jailkeeping) - or do you see one I'm missing?
Yes, Chrimi attempted to kill TNE, and I protected TNE with the JK.
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Post Post #782 (isolation #104) » Wed Aug 31, 2016 11:52 am

Post by shannon »

I've got Drone, Chrimi, and PP on TNE so this makes it L-1.

VOTE: TNE
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Post Post #786 (isolation #105) » Wed Aug 31, 2016 3:01 pm

Post by shannon »

In post 785, Chrimi wrote:
In post 781, shannon wrote:Yes, Chrimi attempted to kill TNE, and I protected TNE with the JK.
And then I claimed with no wagon or pressure on me, which as scum would give me a 1/4 chance of survival...?

In which case I would know there wasn't a BP, so I would know we have a jailkeeper.. So claiming would mean I'd be jailkept every night, preventing me from performing night kills. Which means if you caught my buddy today, then I would essentially lose my ability to make night kills and probably get lynched eventually.

shannon, I really feel like you're not thinking this through. Just like you didn't think claiming through.
Stop misrepresenting me. What you've quoted above was me responding to a question about whether it's *possible* for TNE to have been town and you scum. And it is a logical possibility. It's perhaps not a likely scenario, but it's possible. That's all.
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Post Post #787 (isolation #106) » Wed Aug 31, 2016 3:02 pm

Post by shannon »

Cass's question was "Shannon, there is no logical scenario where Chrimi is scum and Tne is town (because of your jailkeeping) - or do you see one I'm missing?"

So yes, me accidentally saving TNE from ScumChrimi *is* a logical scenario. I'm talking in the strict philosophical sense of logic here, not the colloquial one where people use logical to mean 'likely' or 'makes sense to me'.
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Post Post #788 (isolation #107) » Wed Aug 31, 2016 3:35 pm

Post by shannon »

This image is for the visual people. Green is the setups that my claimed role makes possible. Blue are the ones Chrimi's claimed role makes possible. They only overlap on A, which means that if both are true, scum has a goon and a roleblocker.

If everyone's claims are true,
prior to Chrimi's BP claim
, scum would have been tossing up between A and 2. They can't have thought they were in any of the others, because having a roleblocker precludes it.

So to be clear:

If you're speculating about a goon/goon scum team, you are either calling me a liar or calling Chrimi one.

If Chrimi's claim is fake but mine is true, and
no one else is a BP
, then we're *actually* in 1, and there's *no* roleblocker. (This isn't to say anything about Chrimi's potential motivations for potentially fake claiming, or what her alignment is - just that if there's no BP, we're in 1)

If my claim is fake but Chrimi's is true, and
no one else is JK
, then we're actually in 3, and town has a tracker someplace.

If mine and Chrimi's claims are
both true
, these are the possible scenarios:

A) I prevented TNE from killing someone
B) I prevented TNE from being killed
by
someone - Drone, Cass, Implosion, PP, or AF
C) Chrimi was hit but BP, I didn't do anything
D) TNE targeted Chrimi, and I jailkept her, so Chrimi is still BP

If Chrimi's claim is untrue
and
she's scum, these are the possible scenarios:

E) TNE is also scum and attempted to attempt the kill N1, but my JK prevented it
F) TNE is town, and I saved her from the scum team kill
G) I did nothing, and whoever scum hit was actually BP

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Post Post #791 (isolation #108) » Wed Aug 31, 2016 7:58 pm

Post by shannon »

IMHO, better to lynch TNE now and get info while we can still use it, than to have her around late and be wondering.
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Post Post #793 (isolation #109) » Thu Sep 01, 2016 12:55 am

Post by shannon »

Chrimi could be the roleblocker, the roleblocker can kill and block at the same time in this setup - it's in the rules on the front page.
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Post Post #797 (isolation #110) » Thu Sep 01, 2016 1:50 am

Post by shannon »

That's a good point, we haven't considered whether I was roleblocked. If I was, whoever was targeted last night is actually bulletproof.

For reference, what crumb did you see?
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Post Post #799 (isolation #111) » Thu Sep 01, 2016 3:11 am

Post by shannon »

Hahaha I was just thinking about WoW because my husband has started playing again, that quote means nothing! I'm glad I didn't say rogue, I'd have been lynched by now!
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Post Post #802 (isolation #112) » Thu Sep 01, 2016 3:31 am

Post by shannon »

What do you think we should do TNE?
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Post Post #803 (isolation #113) » Thu Sep 01, 2016 3:31 am

Post by shannon »

And has this helped you to PR solve the game?
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Post Post #810 (isolation #114) » Thu Sep 01, 2016 3:48 am

Post by shannon »

For what it's worth, the case you made about the BP claim earlier (how it's falsifiable in LYLO) also applies to your own situation now TNE. You'll forever be the person I jailkept but we don't know whether or not you're scum until you flip.

I think that it's better to do this early than late, to avoid further confusion for town.
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Post Post #811 (isolation #115) » Thu Sep 01, 2016 3:49 am

Post by shannon »

On that note it's bed for me, please don't hammer in the next 24 hours I think we still have things to sort out.
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Post Post #822 (isolation #116) » Thu Sep 01, 2016 12:34 pm

Post by shannon »

UNVOTE:
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Post Post #823 (isolation #117) » Thu Sep 01, 2016 12:37 pm

Post by shannon »

Tne is now back to L-2

I think it's unlikely tne and chrimi are working together, and ts possible both are town. So let's try to find the other scum

Can I please ask everyon to poe and post their process and results? I am not sharing mine for obvious reasons
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Post Post #830 (isolation #118) » Fri Sep 02, 2016 12:13 am

Post by shannon »

Implosion has put TNE back at L-1, just for everyone's info.

I'd like to be the one to hammer if that's, OK? In case we have totally kicked ass and TNE is the roleblocker, I'm keen to get enough info to make a good guess tonight.

In retrospect I'm still glad I claimed today, I think. Even if I'd jailed TNE again tonight, we still wouldn't have a clear picture - we wouldn't know whether a no result *or* a kill meant that TNE was scum, since there's a team of 2. I think we've got a better chance of getting one of them now that everyone knows what's going on. Time will tell.
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Post Post #831 (isolation #119) » Fri Sep 02, 2016 12:14 am

Post by shannon »

TNE would you mind sharing your reads list with reasons please? If you're town, the info you give will be very helpful tomorrow.
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Post Post #833 (isolation #120) » Fri Sep 02, 2016 1:43 am

Post by shannon »

Yeah I think if I was in a scum team I'd want to mix up the roleblocking and killing, that makes sense.

The really big question here is whether we think TNE is more likely to be scum than anyone else. Because it's possible that I jailkept a townie, or that Chrimi was shot and is BP.
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Post Post #836 (isolation #121) » Fri Sep 02, 2016 3:42 am

Post by shannon »

You know I almost jked implosion last night but changed my mind to you at the last second, based in almost nothing. Is it implosion's style to nk someone who has narrowly escaped being lynched? I don't know but at this point I think a risk could be worth it.

Also interesting: implosion has cass, drone, tune as scum
Tne has implosion as scum, cass as town
Chrimi didn't want to be grouped as town with cass and me in tne's list

What does anyone think of pp and af?
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Post Post #842 (isolation #122) » Fri Sep 02, 2016 12:43 pm

Post by shannon »

In post 837, AstralFlare wrote:
What does anyone think of pp
looking a little more towny

TNE to confirm, you're saying second scum is one of Drone/PP/I
No, I was just asking the question, no implication behind it. I just hadn't seen those names mentioned much lately.
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Post Post #849 (isolation #123) » Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:59 am

Post by shannon »

Alright, let's end this now. None of us knows the truth besides scum, but all I know is that I thought TNE was scummy enough to jailkeep and there wasn't a NK, and her behaviour asking for a claim was scummy when D2 started. No point having her around in 'uncertainty' D3, for the same reasons that she herself wanted to avoid having a BP claim wait until that time.

VOTE: TNE


That should be the hammer.

In case that's not a roleblocker, good luck town. :cop:
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Post Post #1003 (isolation #124) » Sun Sep 18, 2016 6:26 pm

Post by shannon »

In post 990, innocentvillager wrote:
Night actions:

Night 1:
Drone roleblocks implosion
shannon jails thenewearth
PenguinPower kills thenewearth (fails)

Night 2:
Drone roleblocks shannon
shannon jails Drone (fails, roleblocker precedence)
Drone kills shannon

Night 3:
PenguinPower kills implosion
I was so sure I was going to die N2, since everyone had figured out my role (per the quotes from Jibs), so I thought it was best to claim at at least get *some* info out there. But from scum chat it looks like they actually hadn't :facepalm:

FWIW I thought Implosion was Drone's team mate and I was surprised to see him flip town.

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