Newbie 1718 [Game Over!] Mafia

[gigabyteTroubadour]

VOTE: makesnosense

It doesn't make sense why you're not voting yet. Not voting is scummy.

(also hey guys! this is my first forum mafia games! I play a lot of face to face games irl and some games on an irc channel, but I wanted to try something new! Here's to a fun game!)

[gigabyteTroubadour]

VOTE: Smurphinator

For not being Smurftastic.

I know it's still early in RVS, but does something about this vote seem deliberate to anyone else?

(mafia scum doesn't have a [hr] so just imagine this is a nice, clean horizontal rule)

House, as the IC, do you have a private thread in which you comment on us newbies' plays to give constructive criticism? I noticed that a couple of the ICs from the games I read did that, but not all of them did.

Also, if you're lynched early into the game (despite my comment i'm that suspicious of your move), are you still allowed to provide help with theory questions about the game, so as long as you don't provide gamebreaking information? Because if not, it seems like there's a penalty to us accusing you too early in the game if you could help newer players out.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

VOTE: Smurphinator

For not being Smurftastic.

I know it's still early in RVS, but does something about this vote seem deliberate to anyone else?

(mafia scum doesn't have a [hr] so just imagine this is a nice, clean horizontal rule)

House, as the IC, do you have a private thread in which you comment on us newbies' plays to give constructive criticism? I noticed that a couple of the ICs from the games I read did that, but not all of them did.

Also, if you're lynched early into the game (despite my comment i'm

not

suspicious of your move), are you still allowed to provide help with theory questions about the game, so as long as you don't provide gamebreaking information? Because if not, it seems like there's a penalty to us accusing you too early in the game if you could help newer players out.

I gotta stop writing messages while in a hurry, I've made three typos this game already... :K


also sorry for not snipping that quote, i'm on my phone

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I have never heard of an IC PT, so I'm asking the mod for clarification on the ability to post in there once dead. I highly doubt it, though.

I see my mistake, I just read a very long (and constructive) mod pt. For some reason I was under the impression that it was an IC who wrote it. Definitely not the same thing!

But I do wonder about the design decision behind the possibility of ICs dying early. Was the idea that by the end of D1, players would be able to go without their IC if they were lynched or NK'd? I guess that bridge'll be crossed when we get there.

That said, you should not want to lynch ANYONE frivolously, not just the IC. If I'm scum, I need to swing just like anyone else.

Oh, of course not. I was just wondering what would happen theoretically.

Also, you can quote a partial post by highlighting the text you want to quote and clicking the quote button.

It gets screwed up on my phone, sadly. But it works fine on my computer!

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I know it's still early in RVS, but does something about this vote seem deliberate to anyone else?

Is your meaning by "deliberate" because I also voted for Smurphinator? I'm not sure what else you could mean by it. If so, I can see your point, though I'm not sure if that really provides that much information yet, given that it's still RVS (I think). It's certainly something to be noted.

Even in RVS, nothing is truly random. By deliberate I meant that there was some sort of alignment-related motivation behind it, be it town or mafia. Obviously it's not enough to build a case, but I think it's interesting that someone put a random vote on someone before seeing how they react.

Maybe that's just my tendency to overanalyze things, especially when there's nothing to make a strong case with yet. I mostly pointed it out because I'm not even sure if it could be read as town or mafia.

It IS deliberate.

I chose that person to vote because they used 'ph' instead of 'f' in their name.

Hence, not smurftastic.

Of course, I would not be surprised if it

was

a random vote. It's just that if I still hadn't casted a vote, I most likely would have picked a person no one else voted for unless their reaction to being voted for made me suspicious.

([]------------horizontal rule------------[])

I'm also not sure how I feel about makesnosense's vote or how House moved his vote.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I should clarify, there's nothing interesting about putting a random vote on someone who didn't react. I meant it's interesting to put a

second

vote on someone before they acknowledge the first, in case it wasn't clear from context.

I'm also not sure how I feel about makesnosense's vote or how House moved his vote.

I moved my vote because my first vote was rvs and my second is based on suspicion.

This is what I assumed, and I'm going to have to agree about your suspicion.

It just

makes no sense

.

Although I should also point out that I didn't intend to cast any sort of suspicion onto you, especially because I can see town-motivated reasons to try to start an RVS-bandwagon (if you can call it that).

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Personally, I dislike makesnosense's vote because House didn't even get the chance to clarify that he made a RVS vote that was tangential to mine.

A reason would have been nice, but during RVS I'd be willing to let a move like that slide

if

he had voted for literally anyone other than House. Without a joke reason, I'd be incredibly skeptical of MNS if it tried to say it was an RVS vote.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Personally, I dislike makesnosense's vote because House didn't even get the chance to clarify that he made a RVS vote that was tangential to

mine

Harlii's

.

Ebwop, oops, i don't know how one messes up that badly

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Wow, the juicy discourse ends as soon as I wake up. I'll most likely post a more detailed post later, but at the moment, I'm not exactly a big fan of RC's entrance. Everyone else seems OK, and even then I don't really have much of a reason to even suspect him. I definitely want to wait to hear RC's logic behind his initial vote, but with him moving it so quickly I don't think it'll be convincing. Keeping my vote where it is until later.

Do any of the other newbies want to join me for a meta-read of House and RC? I'm probably going to start over the weekend (i.e., after finals), but I think for us, understanding where they're coming from would definitely be useful. There really seems to be something personal with RC's vote.

Final thoughts, I actually really hate that I'm the universal townread this game, since my chances of being nightkilled go up so quickly. With the whole fiasco in setting up 1715, I waited a while to get into this game. I guess that's life though.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I'm not caught up since my last post, but I'm not even sure if the post I've been working on all day is useful.

I'm trying to figure out the argument given against House (i.e., the initial vote of VC), but now that Doctor Pepper is the only person on that wagon, I'm not sure how useful it'll be. I still would like to know RC's train of thought at the time, and I guess that's why I'm just trying to figure it out on my own.

The post is a really long wall, too.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Under the spoiler tags, I have a post-by-post analysis of the suspicion directed towards House, because I'm honestly still unsure about why people are legitimately suspecting House. Like I said before, it's kind of dying out, but I feel as though the explanation behind it was lacking, so I'm going to try to amke a little sense out of it. There's also some explanation about my play from around RVS because it centered around House, but I'm also going to summarize the spoiler tag because I think you guys would prefer analysis over summary.

Spoiler: A post-by-post summary of the case vs. House

#10

Here, House votes for Smurphinator. This looks like an otherwise normal RVS vote, however...

#11

I decide to pull an interesting reaction test. Honestly, from the start, I saw nothing wrong with House's vote. There was some genuine curiosity about it, but I was not thinking "Oh! House is trying to quicklynch/bus Smurphinator!" or anything like that. I commented on it because I wanted to see how everyone

besides

House would react to me questioning his "bandwagon" vote. A two person bandwagon, as I hope you all know I know, is not actually a bandwagon and not really anything worth pursuing, especially during RVS.

The point of the reaction test, in case I forget to elaborate on that, is that I wanted to see who in the game is jumpier with their votes and the type to just agree with whatever is implied. By "kinda-sorta-not-really" hinting at suspicion, I can see who dismisses it or who agrees with it, seeing the question as a good reason to vote. Maybe it's not the best reaction test, but I hesitated a lot before making that post.

#12

This is just a EBWOP but I do fix a typo that affects the meaning of what I wrote above. I just emphasize that I'm

not

trying to cast suspicion onto House. That doesn't mean I townread him or anything, it's just not that I am not trying to build a case on him.

Posts #13 - #16 are all OOG posts and thus irrelevant.

#17

Harlii is the first to respond to my reaction test, and I would say that he reacted in the most pro-town, townreading way possible, at least to me. He was open to discuss the concern and take note of it, but took it with a reasonable grain of salt. I don't think Harlii scumreads House because of my concern, either, which is what I want.

It's questioning, not suspicion.

#18

Makesnosense's intro was, regardless of its intention, pretty bad. It casts a vote for someone whose actions are being taken into consideration, which makes it look as though it's voting because it actually suspects House. It would have been OK for MNS to suspect House because of what I said, but his lack of reasoning shows that he's either:

• A: Trying to be a yes-man, therefore gaining towncred by agreeing with a (non-existent) wagon before it's so popular that hammering is a possibility. This is a scum motivation, naturally.
  
  B: Actually suspicious of House and felt that he didn't need to explain his vote because he's agreeing with me. By receiving a vote, he's given more pressure to respond to me. This is mostly a town motivation, and it seems like something a fellow new townie may do. The lack of reasoning is still bad because of its ambiguity.
  
  C: Randomly voting. Nothing's wrong with that, but both the timing of the vote and its vagueness make its intention very confusing, and confusion never benefits town. After all, that's why joke reasons are typically given with random votes: to clarify that they're random votes. Later, we find out that this is what happened, so I'll get there.

In a way, makesnosense and Harlii's reactions are polar opposites. Harlii is behaving in the most pro-town way possible by promoting critical discussion, while makesnosense acted very anti-town by making the meaning of its vote ambiguous.

#19

House defends his vote by saying that, yes, it was random. This is pretty much the only defense House could have given to my comment, which is why the reaction test was not meant for him. This didn't surprise me at the time, so I didn't really get any new information out of this.

Really, the only non-random motivation for House to vote like that is that he wanted to apply pressure onto Smurphinator and perhaps encourage them to post. I don't think that's good play, which is why I doubt it actually was an intentional move to vote for House to put Smurphinator at L-3 (the horror).

#20 and 21

Here's the end of RVS, folks. House votes for makesnosense for its ambiguous vote and attempt at creating/joining a bandwagon with little reason.

#22

I try to explain what my reaction test was without giving away it's a reaction test. If I didn't ask if there was a motivation (good or bad) behind House's vote, would anyone? My guess is no. House's initial vote generated a discussion which then got us out of RVS before the end of page 1. I also try to emphasize again that my intention is not to make everyone doubt House, because the vote absolutely could be random.

Under the rule, I attempt the same reaction test again. This time, I pretty much

know

how to answer both questions as I'm asking them. To me at the time, makesnosense's vote was to agree with me, while House didn't like that makesnosense is trying to start a bandwagon off of just my comment. I realize that neither is 100% true, but that's how I saw it yesterday.

#23 and 24

House justifies his vote, which pretty much told me what I already knew. I did like #24 because it was very pro-town. Not providing reasons with reads or votes takes away from potential discussion and overall hurts the town.

#25

I, yet again, try to remind everyone that I don't suspect House because of his vote and just wanted to know if there was motivation behind it. I also tell the town that I'm sticking to my current vote. A bit tangential to this spoiler-wall.

I should tell the town, too, that I kept reminding everyone that I don't suspect House because suspecting him would turn the reaction test to a line of questioning, which it wasn't intended to be. Again, the test was for the 7 other players, not House or me. I might suspect House later today, who knows.

#26

Harlii reacts to the test again in a positive manner. He also shows he had pretty much the same train of thought as I did at the moment. His question to House makes him appear to trust House, which is fine.

#27

Pretty much the same thing as #24. I believe House when he said that he meant to randomvote, I just wasn't sure if anyone knew

why

I had asked about his vote before because it seemed unclear. My last post made it sound like any randomvote is suspicious, which, if true, would undermine RVS entirely.

#28 and #29

House explains why the vote is anti-town. I think this is more IC'ing than it is gameplay discussion, but the point he makes here is ultimately important: Discussion helps town. And, at the time, House was the one doing the most talking.

#30 and #31 are more about MNS than House

#32

Here's where I start being confused. From the above posts, I don't think House has done a single scummy action. He defends himself after being voted for, yes, but that's the natural response when someone asks why you're doing something. Also, the OMGUS from House had reasons beyond that of a normal OMGUS, specifically that House felt MNS's towns were anti-town.

Without a reason given, my reaction test is undermined because I don't know if it comes from my comment or if RC noticed something I didn't pick up on.

#33 is skipped because it's redundant (How pro-town of House to ask for reasoning! Discussion is great!), 34 and 35 don't really have info to work with

#36

House gives his reads thus far. He points out that it's possible for RC and MNS to simply be townies acting in an anti-town fashion, which I think is important to acknowledge. His tone does suggest it's unlikely.

#37

RC does echo the idea that anti-town =/= scum, but since House's tone implied that that probably wasn't the case, RC sees it as scummy.

#38 to #41 are about RC, not House

#42

This and, to an extent, #37 make me want to study House's IC meta better.

#43

I can't tell if this means RC dropped their suspicion of House. I assume it doesn't, personally, but from RC's POV I think foedufafa would seem scummier at the moment by jumping onto a bandwagon that quickly.

#44 to #46

I really think there's something personal between House and RC lmao. House is right in that you shouldn't vote if you don't have a reason, but I can see why RC disliked his tone and got offended.

#47 to #51

This is more about the fight between RC and House, so we'll ignore it.

#52

DoctorPepper votes for House, with his reason being a bit vague. It reads as though he thought House was pushing a RC bandwagon, but from the above posts in commentary, it seems to me that House was just pointing out that RC and MNS did some anti-town actions, not that they were scummy.

#53

House points out that he wasn't even on the wagon vs. RC, and this is clear because House doesn't even scumread RC.

#54 to 56 was about the fight between RC and House

#57

MNS returns and, while he says that his vote was random, he now has a case against House. My question is, why is it wrong to defend yourself if someone actually has their FOS on you? Was House being

too

defensive or jumpy? His arguments against RC and DP were valid in my opinion, as House's suspicion towards RC was short lived (and definitely not part of a bandwagon) and he was just criticizing anti-town behavior.

#58 and 59 is about RC.

#60 to #62

House wasn't really pushing on RC in my opinion. House did suggest that RC and MNS could be scum because of their anti-town behavior, but the fact that House didn't even vote for RC tells me that he was only stating the possibility, not intending to move onto a vote.

DoctorPepper also had the impression that House voted for RC, which clarifies some things. DP still has not moved his vote though.

#63

House confirms that he wasn't even pushing suspicion onto RC, or at least not intending to.

It seems that the potential arguments versus House are mostly based on:

• A: Me questioning whether House's first vote was random or intentional.
  B: He reacted to MNS voting him without a reason, which looks jumpy and overly defensive.
  C: House's reasoning for voting MNS was that he performed an anti-town action, which isn't a valid reason to vote because even town members do anti-town things.
  D: House pushed for a bandwagon onto RC by disagreeing with their actions.

A is part of a reaction test that tested everyone

but

House. B I disagree with, I felt he was criticizing his anti-town behavior, not defending himself. C is a fairly reasonable argument, but I think the vote on MNS is well-placed. D is just wrong.

Now, you might not have asked for it, but here it is: The post 11/12 explanation! This might end up being redundant with what I wrote in the spoiler but just roll with me here.

Hello, sorry for not being here most of yesterday. I had a funeral to attend, and then I couldn't get to my computer room last night due to some guests we have. I've adjusted my schedule, so I should be more active. I would however like to announce a V/LA for Saturday and Sunday. I have an airsoft game all Saturday, and on Sunday I'm not sure where our guests will want to go. With that out of the way, here's my current read on the situation.

VOTE: Smurphinator

For not being Smurftastic.

I know it's still early in RVS, but does something about this vote seem deliberate to anyone else?

This really rubs me the wrong way. It seems like Giga's trying to cast suspicion on House merely for being the second to vote on Smurf. Yet that's entirely what one would expect given the random nature of the RVS stage.

My "weird buddying with House" in constantly saying that I was not suspecting him was to make sure this isn't how my post is viewed. But then why would I want to ask the question I posed in post 11/12? Simple!

I wanted to see how quickly people agree or disagree with the post, and whether or not they think it's questioning or suspicion. I was genuinely curious as to whether or not it was a random vote, but ultimately I don't think it would have mattered. I do like that it helped us get out of RVS fast and onto actual discussion (ending at post #20 is pretty good, right?), but I think it ultimately backfired on me and makes me much more confusing to understand.

[]------------horizontal rule------------[]

This post was pretty long and honestly I'm worried that it's confusing. If anyone needs clarification on anything I wrote I'll be happy to explain it again. I spent way too long with this post and usually when I take a long time writing something it just becomes unnecessarily long and difficult to follow.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Hence why I only put Smurf at [-1]. On my scale that's still neutral, and once they post, that will change. However (and correct me if I'm wrong), this is also a soft indicator of a mafia member. Mafia needs to deprive town of as much info as possible. The less one posts, the less their posts are scrutinized (up to a point). In conclusion, the [-1] is just a placeholder, nothing more.

The popular scumtell with lurking is usually opportunistic lurking, or lurking for the sake of avoiding the need to defend yourself. I think Smurf just hasn't logged into MafiaScum the past day or two.

I think tomorrow I'm going to post reads of my own. I spent way too much time today on that one post and I need to catch up for the last real day of school, haha.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I will get to this game soon, but I will say foe is suspicious af for latching on to any wagon picking up steam and getting off them once the heat is off

Reading Foe's ISO, this is pretty much untrue. Foedufafa, as RC is on V/LA, didn't get

off

the wagon, he simply changed his vote from a vote to a FOS. That seems pretty normal, especially considering that half of the active players have also applied a pressure vote onto makesnosense at some point (me, House, Harlii, and Foe. 4/7!). I don't see Foe as opportunistic at all, especially because getting to L-2 is a pretty important goal in terms of discussion.

By the by, that does mean that

makes no sense is at L-2

. Please don't vote for him any more, because otherwise he could be quick-hammered!

------------horizontal rule------------

Will post my reads after school, I only have 10 minutes of class left and that's not enough time to write.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

*it, not he for makesnosense

i'm on my phone and i really prefer using my computer to make longer posts, so no reads yet

[gigabyteTroubadour]

@foe and giga:
Explanation for "Defensiveness":
* On this post, House immediately OMGUS me without even trying to understand why I'm voting him (which was really just RVS). That's what I would have expected from an IC-town. Thus, I believe he meant to play that to his alignment by threatening me to back off with a vote.
* His interaction with RC on Post 42 and Post 44 also shows high level of defensiveness over a mere suspicion on him.

OMGUS, especially in Day 1, is not really that scummy imo. It's crappy reasoning, especially late game, but that's about it. I think that House's argument in that it was anti-town behavior was pretty valid, and he's even off of that wagon by now because there're scummier people. If anything, the fact he's on Racer now kind of shows me that he's not tunneling or looking for even a lynch, as with his vote, we'd be at L-1 and ready to hammer. Thank god we're not, btw.

In a way, makesnosense and Harlii's reactions are polar opposites. Harlii is behaving in the most pro-town way possible by promoting critical discussion, while makesnosense acted very anti-town by making the meaning of its vote ambiguous.

I'd like to believe that my naked vote has promoted more discussion than an ordinary non-interesting reasoning that anyone whether scum or town can possibly contrive. But then again, that's a matter of personal opinion.

All it really did was give people reasons to vote for you, so if you see that as beneficial to the town, then I don't know what to say. I don't see how making yourself look suspicious intentionally is productive.

Simply generating discussion is not exactly a good endgoal for a reaction test, anyway. There needs to be something that can divide town-motivation and scum-motivation in it. I could just say, "Hey guys, I'm

totally

not scum! Trust me!" and that would generate a lot of discussion. But would it be helpful? Probably not.

---

Also, is this the sort of line you're looking for, Giga? ^

what the hell..................... i don't like this new bbc system.................. discusting..........

i don't know if i'll use it since the makeshift rule has its own character, but yes that's what I was looking for...

---

I'm pretty pooped from finals (a lot more than I thought), so if you don't mind I'm going to give very simplistic reads...

Town

{Harlii} – Pretty much the safest townread out of the 9 of us. Harlii, while not incredibly active, writes posts that show that he's thinking independently but is willing to work with the town. Scum have to try to blend in and move with the popular opinion, and even though Harlii's currently on the main wagon (MNS), I think his reasons go beyond what other people wrote.

{Foedufafa} – I think trying to pressure RC was more of a newbie-move, which is why I'm not really looking into it. Posts #77 and 79 were pretty good, and I'm not really concerned about the fact he's also voting on the popular wagon. Especially because it

is

my wagon, the MNS wagon is mainly pushed by town and town-motivated reasons. Even if MNS is not today's lynch (which I think is how this day will go), it kind of helped me see how the town is divided and better surmise what everyone's motivations are.

{House, gigabyteTroubadour} – Yes, I do tend to include myself in reads in places other than the very top. I think it's useful to gauge how I think the town should be/is reading me, and I think I am around the townier side of null. Anyway, my ploy at the very beginning of the game seemed confusing and didn't end up helping that much (other than getting out of RVS which is always good). But, the goal was to see how the town would be divided about something so innocuous, and I thought it worked (until MNS clarified that it voted randomly... but still, way too coincidental).

As for House, I'm worried that I'm confusing his push for discussion and careful thought is just him playing his IC role. Were he a SE, I'd probably switch him with Foe but I'm trying to carry a little bit more caution around him because he's allowed to undermine his win con. Other than that though, I can see why people may not like how House is defending himself, but it looks like it's coming from a good place to me.

Null

{RC} – I didn't like RC's entrance, but House made a good point about how RC did behave in a townish way by changing their vote. I want to wait before making any more decisive reads though.

{Keyenpeydee} – Should be obvious by now. (Also welcome!)

Scummyish but still pretty null

{makesnosense, Racer64} – My views on MNS should probably be pretty clear by now, but they've been a bit more forgiving now. I really wanted some clarification on its views, especially considering the naked vote that I thought was made with my "suspicion" in consideration. I haven't really liked some of its other plays, but that's about it.

Racer64 is

way

too paranoid. And I'm not saying that because I got a -2 on his read scale. Giving House, Smurphinator, and RadiantCowbells scummier leans just felt really unfair, especially considering the fact that DoctorPepper got a completely neutral score. The way I read this is that Racer64 and DoctorPepper are a scumteam, and that readlist was an attempt at trying to distance himself from his partner without outright bussing him.

If DP were Scum!Racer's partner, S!Racer would hardly be foolish enough to put him as a true neutral read. I understand you're putting pressure on me to defend my statements.

Was kind of ironic to post since House suggested the same scumteam, although I get why it was brought up. I still think you're the less scummy player of the two.

{DoctorPepper} – Giving outright wrong reasons to accuse someone is hardly justifiable. His recent activity reminded me to move my vote over, actually, because I think the MNS wagon got about as far as it needs to. There is also nobody so far that I think could team with MNS, but Racer and DP looks like a possible team. Still not a lynch vote, I just want you to give a defense when you get the chance. Also, thank you for that last post, MNS.

UNVOTE: Makesnosense

G(lance)OS: Makesnosense

(you know, just a little less than a finger of suspicion)
VOTE: DoctorPepper

---

Again, welcome keyenpeydee! When you get the chance, I think it'd be best if you could post your reads so we know what sort of direction you're thinking of moving.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

dang i really could have used some spoilers, sorry for the wall.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I was not prepared for hammering this quickly. What happens if DP flips town? Scum? I have no clue what really happens in either scenario. I'd really like to hear House's thoughts on this specifically since he's the one giving his intent to hammer.

I'd unvote to reflect on the fact that I want more time to think about this, but I don't see RC, Racer, or KNDP quickhammering, nor do I see DP self-voting. My vote stays, I guess.

We have like 10 days before the deadline, too. Is it bad to ask we use a little bit more time to think about this? We also have two (three? DP is too, right?) players in V/LA whose input could point us in another direction.

Also I'm not really going to defend against the people scumreading me because I can see why some of my plays could be viewed as scummy in retrospect. Would like to know the specifics though for future reference.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I get the distinct feeling that RC isn't going to be back to explain for a while, and I don't think I'm willing to wait that long. I'm willing to take the (not that risky, in my opinion) risk here for reasons I explained earlier. To, again, put DP in L-1:

VOTE: DoctorPepper

(House: I was willing to unvote earlier in the interests of getting more analysis from more sources, which always seems beneficial. Apologies for screwing around with my vote and such, but it's my first game and I'm still trying to figure out what I think is good play in various situations)

You're flip floppy and your vote after House expressed displeasure makes me sense you feel the need to be liked and make people like you. Kinda scummy of you to vote right after the IC tells you to.

Also lol for the IC committing the very non IC play of intending to hammer right away, early on the day to deny town information. Jeez.
I will not claim. This is just straight up bad play. If you mislynch me this early without anything to go off but 'Defending the V/LA player' and 'basing reads off supposedly shaky stances' then so be it. I see my wagon is heavily scum motivated, and if you don;t see it well sucks for this town

UNVOTE: DoctorPepper

House needs to convince me to bring him back to L-1. I really think I need to reanalyze my reads, I knew there was something wrong about House wanting to hammer so quickly.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Not claiming, but in case I get quick hammered my watch list is House, foe and Harli. Gl town.

Good for you for coming back to your senses

Honestly I still don't think Harlii is that suspicious, he just comes across as very new to mafia as a whole. Wishy-washy voting is normally pretty suspicious, yes, but when everyone's a newbie I think it's a bit more normal to be unsure of yourself. If anything, being

too

confident in your reads seems more scummy for a new player. With some experience on Harlii's side it'd be a lot different.

If this wagon has made me want to think more about my reads, I think House is the person I'd move down. I see a MNS/House scumteam as a possibility, but nothing more than that.

I guess this is kinda my fault for providing cursory glances and just making posts when I read them on my phone without double checking if what i said was correct, I'll get on this when I have more time.

For now, I think I'll have to convince you to go foe

Maybe, but I'll have to give it more thought. This is just pretty difficult because I'm pretty much going the opposite of my initial gut feelings.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Also I should add that claiming Day 1 pretty much hurts town no matter what. Claiming VT narrows down the pool of power roles for mafia to hunt down, while claiming a power role just makes you a certain target, especially if you're helpless (Doctor, Cop w/o doctor, etc). Any BP Townie claim should be seen as scummy anyway.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

House, before I decide whether or not to return to the wagon, what happens if DoctorPepper

isn't

scum? Because if DP is right in that this is a scum-motivated wagon (which he can really only be right about if he's town (or if this is an elaborate bus that imo is pointless unless DP ultimately is not lynched)), pretty much all of the people I've townread are scummier. Seeing an "intent to hammer" post pretty much tells me you're ready to lynch, but I think it's way too early to consider that. I, at the very least, want to know what DP flipping either alignment means.

See there are good reaction tests and there are bad ones.

Getting to a point where a hammer is necessary and getting a role claim 4 days into the 14 day Day phase of the game probably isn't a good reaction test.

The way to avoid a derp hammer would be "someone unvote until we get enough info"

We

don't

want a roleclaim, which is why I'm really uncertain about House's reaction test. I still don't think DP is town, but I want House to answer my question because I really was hoping that it was going to be brought up before L-1.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

There only useful thing that has come from this wagon is a more solid townread on Giga than I already had (which makes me doubly curious about RC's Giga read).

I was hoping to get everyone's reaction to L-1, not just

his

and DP's. Though I did get Harlii's earlier, so there is that.

Would have been nicer if everyone had an opportunity to weigh in on it while it was ongoing, though.

kind of irrelevant to the game but if you dislike using they as a singular pronoun, do you mind using she? Thanks.

And on that note: RC, do you use she or he? Your main says she, but your alt says he so I'm really not sure.

---

Anyway, my plays this game were pretty terrible I think. I'm still adjusting to the slower pace of a forum, and I'm seeing that making rash decisions have really bad consequences even in the short term. In my face-to-face game, people are generally too scared to vote to lynch, so I have to really push the town in a direction to generate discussion. In my chatroom games, RVS is also non-existent, and five-minute deadlines and a general hatred of extensions mean that you have to make quick decisions.

I

like

this better, but I'm just making myself look a lot stupider because I'm not a hotheaded person by nature, but I'm trying to force myself to be from past experience.

---

I think I still townread House but there's a lot more doubt in there. I need a moment to decide whether or not I should validate that doubt or not.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

also house i still want to know what you would do if DP flipped town

[gigabyteTroubadour]

see that's what i townread harlii ^

Also yes, Harlii, when someone dies, their role is revealed. I don't care what DP says he is, I care about what InnocentVillager reveals him as if he gets lynched or NK'd.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

*that's why, and i was referring to 155

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I feel like the answer to 'what happens if DP was lynched and town' doesn't legitimately change if House is scum or not. In either case, does he not say something along the lines of "I was wrong, so I should re-evaluate reads of the people DP was against" leading to targetting probably Foe (given the history between foe and DP) or really anyone else he hasn't read as hard town? As town, he obviously wants to move on to finding the next scummy person, and as scum, he wants to move on to the next non-scum who gives off a scummy vibe while distancing himself from the town lynch. What changes isn't really his reaction, but how people would read his reaction. In every case of retrospect, it makes sense for him to not hammer DP, because he'd be super suspicious if DP was town and he was scum, and as a town, it seems like it's not worth the risk to hammer someone potentially scummy this early.

I'm pretty much asking him who the next scummy person is or who the next "non-scum who gives off a scummy vibe" is though, not looking for a reaction. I want to know so that before DP's hammered, the person hammering at least has a backup plan for the 5-2 scenario. I'm pretty sure House would want to lynch Racer64 if DP flips scum, but I honestly would not know where to go with a town!DP.

It generally

is

worth the risk of mislynching D1, because the information you can get from a townflip and nightkill can be very informative. If you look at the lynch accuracy stats of Matrix6, our chance of mislynching goes down no matter what. 6-1 is probably the most desirable outcome that we can at least rely on, and the chance of mislynching is still around 50%. 5-2 is not as good, but we have a 1 in 3 chance of correctly lynching. It's a big difference, but we're not completely screwed if we mislynch.

If we do end up with a mislynch, I'd at least want it to be a very informative mislynch.

Also I should have predicted that House wasn't going to hammer, especially considering I kept pointing out that I don't want to be on a lynchwagon yet... Really sorry for ruining your reaction test :/

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Im just gonna weigh in and say how worried I am over the fact that its only 5 RL days and we have a bunch of other players who have not given significant contribution to the game and somehow everyone assumes I'm still gonna be the lynch target for today

This is why I'm not too upset about unvoting (if I were I would have revoted).

Only thing is atm I can't see another viable person of interest. Foe is pretty much townread by everyone and is my new "safe townread," so I'm not sure your wagon is going to catch on. RC is a pretty popular townread too.

That leaves KNDP, House, me, MNS, Harlii, and Racer64. While atm they're ordered in how happy I'd be with their wagons (least happy to happiest), a Racer64 wagon would kinda suck since he's on V/LA. After looking at the voting patterns, Harlii's a lot more of a null read to me but I don't feel ready to call a wagon onto anyone.

Mind you, that's not a readslist. KNDP is definitely not a townread to me. Not to suggest Town!KNDP is impossible, but I disliked his entrance.

Also since I've looked at the voting patterns, it's my votes that get wagons rolling this game it seems . Don't know if that's good or bad though.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

house i'm sorry for badgering you about this, but what would you do if DP turned out to be town? How would it affect your reads, to phrase that better?

[gigabyteTroubadour]

To add additional questions:
1. What happens when someone gets all 5 votes on them? I assume the mod shows up at some point, but what happens in the time between the vote and the mod showing up?
2. 'Scumhunting" I assume means actively trying to get people to react in scummy ways, i.e. through reaction tests, y/n?

Not the IC but I got this one!!

1. Votes no longer count, and everyone has to wait for the mod to announce the lynch scene. The time before that is referred to as Twilight, and people are still free to post. Usually the lynchee gets 1 uninformative "Bah!" post and is not allowed to talk, but that varies from mod-to-mod.

2. Not really about reaction tests. They can be part of scumhunting, but the more important thing is looking for scumtells, or things that imply that someone is scum. Think if it as looking for ways people lie in real life, like looking to the left to get more time to think, or being suddenly nervous.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

House, Racer isn't voting for me, or anyone for that matter. I still think he's pretty suspicious but I want him to defend himself once more before placing a vote, his V/LA ends tomorrow.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

House, Racer isn't voting for me, or anyone for that matter.

I still think he's pretty suspicious but I want him to defend himself once more before placing a vote, his V/LA ends tomorrow.

So?

There's nothing wrong with him coming back to some pressure.

Oh, no, I agree, it's just that if I try to join a wagon, I want it to at least be based in the truth. Racer64 originally voted for his scumread, but it was a bad read so he unvoted and iirc never voted again.

Also, I know I said I wouldn't vote until I hear a defense (mostly because my suspicion came from his nullread on DP), but it's not like I can't unvote if I think he makes a good argument. So with that in mind...

VOTE: Racer64

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Was it 187?

[gigabyteTroubadour]

House, Racer isn't voting for me, or anyone for that matter.

I still think he's pretty suspicious but I want him to defend himself once more before placing a vote, his V/LA ends tomorrow.

So?

There's nothing wrong with him coming back to some pressure.

Oh, no, I agree, it's just that if I try to join a wagon, I want it to at least be based in the truth. Racer64 originally voted for his scumread, but it was a bad read so he unvoted and iirc never voted again.

Also, I know I said I wouldn't vote until I hear a defense (mostly because my suspicion came from his nullread on DP), but it's not like I can't unvote if I think he makes a good argument. So with that in mind...

VOTE: Racer64

Racer never voted you. At all. And, he WAS voting for his number 1 scumread.

Why didn't you push me for putting out such a twisted case? Why vote for him when my post was untrue on two premises?

Because I agreed that he needed some pressure? He's been mostly on V/LA and unlike RC there's not really anything to justify anything more than a townread. So giving him 2 votes of pressure seems better than 1.

I'd like a DP lynch better but I think DP/Racer is a likely scumteam, so it wouldn't hurt to push a Racer wagon if it ends up building a better case for either.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

also only point 1 of 182 is false, that's 2/3 and honestly i didn't catch on to his soft-defense of you

if anything i find it weird there hasn't been a push for my lynch from RC and Racer, who both scumread me.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

fuck i meant nullread but what's the point

I hope you have a backup plan for my mislynch, because I don't see what information it would give besides the fact I'm innocent.

1 is wrong because you say he voted for me.
2 is wrong because you say he voted for me.

That's only wrong on one account to me unless I'm missing something.

At least I townread you harder now because Scum!House would have missed that typo to use me as an easy mislynch tomorrow.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

If you thought he voted for me (-2), then -1 is slightly less. The only error I see still is that he voted for me.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I think I still townread House but there's a lot more doubt in there. I need a moment to decide whether or not I should validate that doubt or not.

You had this doubt when I simply stated intent to hammer, yet zero doubts when I posted a factually inaccurate case along with a vote?

With my Harlii townread going down the drain, yes. Foe is my only solid townread and I tend to agree with your reads and claims.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

wtf why did i say "claims", disregard that

And OK, that's three things wrong. I still like pressure on Racer64 so I'm keeping my vote there.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I was really liking Harlii's posting until the self-proclaimed major townread and nk paranoia. That was bad play if town, and manipulative if scum. Still mulling that one over.

Harlii's still a townread then?

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I was really liking Harlii's posting until the self-proclaimed major townread and nk paranoia. That was bad play if town, and manipulative if scum. Still mulling that one over.

Harlii's still a townread then?

Harlii is not a person of interest for today.

OK, but if you're going to suggest that our reads aren't similar, then I don't see how that quote from you implies Harlii's anything but a nullread.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I was really liking Harlii's posting until the self-proclaimed major townread and nk paranoia. That was bad play if town, and manipulative if scum. Still mulling that one over.

Harlii's still a townread then?

Harlii is not a person of interest for today.

OK, but if you're going to suggest that our reads aren't similar, then I don't see how that quote from you implies Harlii's anything but a nullread.

Harlii is not the subject of discussion. You adding a vote after a contrived case on Racer64 is the subject of discussion.

Discussing the read on Harlii is relevant to me though, you said I was inconsistent for saying I both generally have agreed with you (why I put a vote on Racer64 without much thought) and distrusting Harlii.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

House, Racer isn't voting for me, or anyone for that matter.

I still think he's pretty suspicious but I want him to defend himself once more before placing a vote, his V/LA ends tomorrow.

So?

There's nothing wrong with him coming back to some pressure.

Also I voted for Racer because you specifically said this... If you had corrected yourself I wouldn't have changed my mind about staying on an unvote.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

So you're admitting that you've been sheeping me instead of forming your own reads?

How can you say I've been sheeping you? I was the first to push for both of this game's major wagons (MNS and DP), and you weren't even a part of MNS at its end. Also, me unvoting DP because I didn't want you to have the power to hammer implies that I have

some

distrust of you.

Really the only time I've sheeped you is the vote you're scumreading me for, which is fair, but I think my mislynch will be incredibly unhelpful to the town because it doesn't incriminate Scim!House at all.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

*Scum!House

[gigabyteTroubadour]

My logic is that Scum!House wouldn't do this, but me pointing that out gives scum!House a reason to go foward with it and use it as towncred.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

also if you're going to say i'm scum without a flip, who's my scumbuddy?

[gigabyteTroubadour]

No, they don't, but I want to better understand House's case besides that one slip. I just personally would not be so certain about someone being scum unless I know what I want after a correct lynch and after an incorrect lynch.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

No, they don't, but I want to better understand House's case besides that one slip. I just personally would not be so certain about someone being scum unless I know what I want after a correct lynch and after an incorrect lynch.

You jumped on an entirely inaccurate case as an excuse to cast a vote.

That. Is. Not. Town.

The case wasn't even why I wanted to vote. I think DP/Racer is still a possible scumteam and apply pressure onto him. If I wanted to jump on a vote because of your inaccurate case, my first post in response to you would have been a vote. You telling me "My case might be inaccurate but it's still good to pressure him" persuaded me to vote, and I justified it because I can unvote when I need to.

At this point I realize I can't defend myself (and House is totally justified to put this much pressure on me, whether or not this was a test at first or a legitimate scumread), so I'm trying to make sure Town isn't fucked when I flip town.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I meant more than a nullread. It makes no sense because it's not what I intended to write. I don't think anyone can possibly townread Racer and that's what I would have said if I didn't make that stupid error.

I still think Racer's nullread is weird and I want him to explain himself. That's what I mean by pressure. House's view on the weirdness of the vote (why not giga?) was different from mine (why DP?) but House and I were still on the same track with the DP read.

I think House went off on me because RC, who he trusts more on the basis of skill, has me as a very strong scumread (yet he's not on my wagon yet) and he wanted to see how I would put up with a fight. I failed miserably, and it's really starting to frustrate me because I thought I was better than this :/.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I'd be less defensive about my lynch if:

Spoiler: Point A (spoilered because it's long)

A: House wasn't so overzealous that he's right. He's tunneling on something that's tainted by confirmation bias off of someone else's reads, and if he doesn't have a backup plan then mafia's going to eat the town alive with a perfect victory. He's the only person who has been doing any serious scumhunting and not only will my townflip ruin his credibility as town leader, I think he's a prime NK target if he's town. I have no idea what Scum!House implies and honestly it baffles me too much that I'm just going with Occam's Razor here.

By "confirmation bias," I mean that House had absolutely no reason to even consider a scumread on me until RC asked them why he townread me and thus had to question himself. Like if you read through the conversation it still doesn't make any sense to me. I honestly feel betrayed, but this

is

a game about betrayal.

In a nutshell:

• 1. House places a vote on Racer, based on a case that he believes is pretty strong. Read post #188 if you don't believe that he had confidence in his vote.
  
  2. I point out that since a wagon on Racer is exactly what I would want too, I'm most likely voting on this wagon. I'm hesitant, however, because some of House's reasons were a bit off and Racer's V/LA ends tomorrow and he might be able to defend himself.
  
  3. House says that the fact that there are some holes in his case shouldn't affect my vote because more pressure on Racer is better.
  
  4. I agree and vote, pointing out that if I don't like this wagon for any reason I can still unvote.
  
  5. House, again, justifies his case...
  
  6. Yet somehow being persuaded by someone is a scumtell? It's almost like I was baited into this so that House can just say "Wow, RC was right after all!"

To me, House

really

wanted to agree with RC and is overthinking a situation I think anyone could have been in in order to justify it. My later "slips" really are dumb slips (My typo in 194 makes 0 grammatical sense, 202 isn't inconsistent at all and House is ignoring the reasons why, what House pointed out in 215 isn't a contradiction) and I think House is grasping for straws here.

B: I had a stronger case against Harlii, who is a hell of a lot more scummy to me after this fight and also the end of DP's wagon. More on this in C.

C: It wasn't Father's Day and people weren't busy. Some town reactions could have at least steered this in the right direction, and the only people who commented on this were Harlii and DP who are the last people I buy as town at this point. The fact that both of them are waiting for other people's reactions too (Harlii has consistently had a neutral tone to his questions, and DP implied that he felt I was scummy but didn't even vote. Both show they're afraid to take a stance) should at least seem a little scummy, even if you don't trust me.

I'm hoping that if House successfully gets a lynchwagon on me, I get a long twilight phase so I can at least try to do a post-mortem scumhunt while I'm conftown. Assuming that's allowed, of course.

And, also pointers on how to talk my way out of situations like this would be nice, because in my chatroom experience, I constantly get mislynched for "slips" like that while being hounded by a significantly more experienced player. You'd think I'd learn from some experience. It's hard to justify weird actions that you do anyway because you think it's the right thing to do, but surely if I'm town there's some way I can persuade the rest of the town that I'm innocent. I'd probably prefer this post-death or post-game though when I'm confirmed innocent.

also kraska77, welcome!

[gigabyteTroubadour]

You're throwing things around here, I implied what you did was scummy, I didn't say I thought you were scum. Consider the fact that I have another scum read who isn't actively posting and I still need to get an answer from that guy.

OK, who is that scumread? It can't possibly hurt your scumhunting if you state who your target is. After all, you were under suspicion and it wouldn't kill to give some reads.

I'm still surprised that no one who has been on has voted for me though, I thought that if House felt one way the rest of the town would follow. I guess I can believe that you, DP, would be less likely to follow House, but Harlii? Town really needs to be more active.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

House, Racer isn't voting for me, or anyone for that matter.

I still think he's pretty suspicious but I want him to defend himself once more before placing a vote, his V/LA ends tomorrow.

So?

There's nothing wrong with him coming back to some pressure.

He bolded the very thing that tore apart his case on Racer though. That tells me he acknowledged it, and his response tells me to dismiss it. Which I did!

And I interpret your neutrality as stalling to see if any wagon catches on. You've been mid-votes on both of the major wagons (MNS and DP), which also corroborates this suspicion to me.

I also feel as though you've been mimicking my play throughout the game in order to gain House's trust (you've made the same comment about how people are townreading you and thus making you susceptible to a nk, for example. you also criticized your own play right after I did too if memory serves right), but I feel that it's more paranoia than something worth pursuing. I'm probably going to go through our combined ISOs to try to connect the dots on this one, but I don't expect it to go far.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

i just figured out how to get a combined ISO, so give me a moment

also the mimicking argument even isn't that strong, it'd be a very interesting play were you scum and i'd have to compliment you for it, but it just seems silly. still looking into it though.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Yeah, there's definitely too much of a distance between posts to really justify that argument, but my reads remain the same. I can give an exact list if anyone cares.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

This is just factually inaccurate. You have another post as well where you cite your votes as getting major pushes going throughout this day. However, MNS was actually the first person to vote for DoctorPepper before you chose to. And with the MNS wagon you had him as your RVS vote which you never changed, but never made any indication that you were with Harlii and I in pressuring them for more activity. The first thing you say about it is "makesnosense is at L-2 no more voting for him." Unless you can direct me to a post where I'm mistaken about your involvement in that(I don't think I am but you have a lot of posts to sift through) it seems that you're misrepresenting your influence on this game.

I

really

disagree. My vote on MNS became non-rvs as soon as MNS voted, although I couldn't indicate such until way after that. Yes, I was the second vote on DP, but that's still early enough in the wagon. Plus, I don't think MNS has much influence in the game, so I'm not sure if the DP wagon would have caught on had I not voted for it. Maybe I'm overestimating my own influence, but that's legitimately how I saw this.

I got off of MNS because I got the post I wanted (post #97). In retrospect I regret this because MNS's activity has been dead after that post, but I'm more convinced of a DP/Racer or Harlii team and I want to focus on them more. RC did vote for MNS so I think we'll see more of that wagon.

The point is though, I think it's better to be early in the wagon than it is late in the wagon.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

solid entrance from kraska, this slot's in good hands

I'd be happy with a MNS lynch too but I'm still hesitant because I still think DP and {Harlii/Racer64} is a possible team. I want MNS to be at least more active before making a solid read on it, especially because Town has been very inactive in general.

Also, while you're here, do you think you could provide a list of reads?

[gigabyteTroubadour]

House didn't press me to vote for DP, I was the second person on that wagon. I unvoted because while I don't trust DP, I felt House was ready to hammer before I was, and I at the very least want to weigh all of the possible outcomes before anyone's lynch or mislynch.

I voted for Racer without really taking House's case into consideration because Racer was my next vote regardless. House just persuaded me to join the wagon earlier than I would have. I'm not denying my Racer vote was bad though, but I'm standing by it.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

and yes you're right, scum can be early on a wagon. Me being on wagons early though shows that I have opinions of my own and my own motivations, which isn't sheeping.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I've been mulling about my read list, and I have more scumreads (including myself, because I always try to guess where most of the town reads me) than townreads. There's 9 players in every game, and only 2 of them can be scum. How can I have 5 possible scumreads?

If you're wondering what it is at this point...

Town

House
Foe
Raska/RC

Mafia

Racer64
gigabyteTroubadour
MNS/Harlii
DoctorPepper

I hate paranoia in Mafia because this is a cooperative game for even town players, and paranoia simply makes it difficult to come to a consensus and work together. V/LAs are ending soon and I hope that's the impetus we need to actually start moving on this game.

Emotionally I feel conflicted about my Harlii read, mostly because Harlii was at first my top townread. There's a lot of room for scum motivation in his posts, just as there is for newb!Town.

I'm also voting for my least scummy scum because the only thing I have against him is that I read his read on DP as a distancing attempt, and that wouldn't look good if DP flips scum. I want to pressure him, see how he reacts, and see how other players react too. I'm probably going to move onto a more realistic lynch vote (MNS or DP) unless Racer64 slips.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

You're throwing things around here, I implied what you did was scummy, I didn't say I thought you were scum. Consider the fact that I have another scum read who isn't actively posting and I still need to get an answer from that guy.

OK, who is that scumread? It can't possibly hurt your scumhunting if you state who your target is. After all, you were under suspicion and it wouldn't kill to give some reads.

I'm still surprised that no one who has been on has voted for me though, I thought that if House felt one way the rest of the town would follow. I guess I can believe that you, DP, would be less likely to follow House, but Harlii? Town really needs to be more active.

If you were actually reading the game you'd know I'm still on foe

and i still don't understand why

[gigabyteTroubadour]

again, if you actually read through my shit, you'd know why I have a case on foe

I did, I disagree with it. That's why I don't understand it.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I can't think of any better questions, so bear with me here town...

Racer, do you still nullread DoctorPepper? How would you have reacted to his wagon? How would a mislynch affect your reads? A correct lynch?

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Town's moving and I'm happy.

I can't really put words to a lot of my Gigabyte scumread but I've felt like they were playing up their newbiness constantly and trying to use it to avoid pressure. There's some stuff that really doesn't make sense in their play; constantly reminding everyone that they are a newb doesn't mesh with their strong opinions on theory.

The only instance I can think of this was the question I asked during RVS about House's vote, which intentionally seemed like a thing only a newbie would do. I admit that was a little manipulative, but I still stand by it because it got discussion rolling quickly. What's wrong with tricking newbie scum, after all? That's what I was hoping it'd do but I really doubt its success. On the bright side, I can never try to pull that off again in my entire MafiaScum career.

If you mean how I mentioned I'm not adjusted to the slower pace of a forum a few times, then I suppose I see your point, but many other Mafia sites use and discuss MafiaScum's theory and terminology, and I do have

some

mafia experience. Definitely not much, especially with bad meta. I'm just worried it's not translating to this meta because 5 minute deadlines are now 2 weeks long.

And even if I were a complete newbie, I've had ample time to read over the MafiaScum wiki and parrot people's opinions from other games and whatnot. Not that that's what I'm doing, but with almost a week gone by anyone can sound like they've played at least 1 game of mafia by now.

My Harlii townread was godawful but I'm only saying that retrospectively. To me, his posts read like he was genuinely trying to make sense of my line of thinking earlier in the day. Note that my strong townread of Harlii came before his IIoA-type posts (the reads were given on 101, #87 was his last post before that). #155 I really wanted to believe that I was right about the townread on Harlii and I guess my stubbornness will be my fatal flaw there, especially because I saw that IIoA as... not hidden as analysis? He even said that he had no special insights to bring in, but then he brought in his own reads that weren't exactly matching the popular reads at the time. People were still townreading Foe when he posted that, and yet he implied that he's scummy. Most of the post was a bit like stating the obvious, but I think it's plausible for someone to read it and see it as valid.

As the game went on (the DoctorPepper wagon, me reading up more on scumhunting and connecting the dots on Harlii's place in both major wagons, Harlii trying to act neutral again on Giga v. House), Harlii just started to seem more obvious to me. I still have room for doubt on this one, which is why he's not scumread #1, but it's a good shot.

What I dislike about Harlii is mostly the fact that he doesn't vote or really have an opinion on anything this far in the game. Town!Harlii has nothing to lose by voting for who he thinks is suspicious, but Scum!Harlii wants to save face by being on the best wagon. Is that best wagon, however, bussing their scumbuddy, or is it pushing for a scummy townie and turning out to be wrong? I don't think Scum!Harlii knows.

Call it sheeping, bussing, distancing, not thinking for myself, whatever you want. I really don't care what anyone sees this as. But besides his one readlist, there's very little to go with on Racer64's case.

UNVOTE: Racer64
VOTE: Harlii

Ultimately, I'm hoping that Harlii is a correct lynch and that I'll be, as RC puts it, autolynched. I'd rather be mislynched on D2 (after a correct lynch) than have my scummy play cause the town to lose during a 1v2 LYLO. Pretty much the instant House went after me for the Racer64 vote, I realized that my lifespan this game is going to be exceptionally short and I'm trying to make plans to be as useful as possible post-death.

My reads from before are pretty much the same. The only change I can think of is that Racer64 is more null than scum.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Survival's only important if you're a power role. Maybe you do have stuff to lose by rashly voting (see House's change in perception of me), but I don't think that's going to happen to you unless you vote for RC or Kraska at this point. At this point, I think that if you're town, you have some ability to think of a rational vote on someone that doesn't rely on someone else's case.

You and Racer are the only people not voting at the moment, and Racer was on V/LA.

I see the role of a VT in a game like this to be death fodder. They can bring attention to themselves, can make good analyses, and can not really worry about being lynched for screwing up or being nightkilled for being onto the scum. Most power roles, to contrast, want to lay low while not seem scummy. That's not to say both types of roles can act differently to cause confusion (or because it's better for the town in their opinion), but that's generally how I play those roles.

Yes, you voted, but you voted late on both wagons. To me, that's Scum!you pushing for a mislynch (which I see the MNS wagon as being, possibly) or trying to gain towncred. Being the very vote that gives a wagon momentum (the L-2 vote, imo) is a powerful position for scum to be on, especially because it's only obvious if you are looking for it. The first and last votes are probably where most people would want to look intuitively (the person who started the wagon and the person who turns it into a lynch), and that's why I don't think new scum would vote there.

If you flip town, then I hope that I'm not mislynched then. I personally would go back to DP/(Scumbuddy), but I need more thoughts as to who that scumbuddy is if not you or Racer64.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

giga may I ask where you played Mafia before here. You present yourself as a newbie but you're spewing theory all over the place

I've played several games on a chatroom and also have played many face to face games. Theory only really comes into play on said chatroom, as some scummers are on it. Not really sure how I'm presenting myself as a newbie to mafia, I'm just new to MafiaScum.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Nah, you won't be. You're hands down the towniest player in the game.

I was hoping to get some opportunistic sheeps onto you, but alas, it was not to be.

wait wait wait wait hold the phone??

Can you please explain what this whole fiasco is? So your whole thing on me with the Racer vote

was

an incredibly elaborate reaction test? Damn it, I'm supposed to wake up early tomorrow, I'm losing sleep over this.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Nah, you won't be. You're hands down the towniest player in the game.

I was hoping to get some opportunistic sheeps onto you, but alas, it was not to be.

wait wait wait wait hold the phone??

Can you please explain what this whole fiasco is? So your whole thing on me with the Racer vote

was

an incredibly elaborate reaction test? Damn it, I'm supposed to wake up early tomorrow, I'm losing sleep over this.

Yes, I was hoping that scum would jump at the shift of momentum to rid themselves of a hugely town player without having to use their NK to do it.

That is incredibly clever of you and I'm sorry I kind of undermined it by pointing out that you were way too overzealous for it to be true. I was legitimately worried of it catching on too because I've been similar situations (obviously not as a reaction test, they were legitimate scumreads) and got quick lynched.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

That is incredibly clever of you and I'm sorry I kind of undermined it by pointing out that you were way too overzealous for it to be true.

That's fallacious anyway.

wait what I said? maybe i'm not phrasing it right but it's not important. i'll post thoughts on harlii's last post tomorrow if there's a time i'm not busy

[gigabyteTroubadour]

i really don't want to lynch anyone yet because i'm writing an incredibly long post about how i feel about this game in general and to be honest this can go in millions of different directions

in short i really want to reconsider my townread on foe and my scumread on DP. With Harlii, I really

want

to believe he's innocent but most of my reasoning is more emotional than anything that actually would be substantial, so I'm sticking to a scum!Harlii. I will probably cry in real life if Harlii is lynched though, I just feel terrible about it for some reason.

the lynches i'm OK with are definitely DP and Harlii, but the more discussion we have the better.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Sorry, this is more of a prod dodge because I'm not going to get as much time to work on my super-long post as I thought.

I was just starting to believe in Racer64's potential towniness. Since I have the chance to read (can't make analytic posts w/o a computer, I hate using my phone too much), I'm probably going to join House in the same ISO dive. I would like to know what he's seeing but I'll post my brief thoughts on it if it's not about the post where he joins the Harlii wagon (and suspects Giga/Harlii as a scumteam) since that's where I am in said really long post.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

oh god what was i thinking

i admit i've been skimming posts a bit more today and yesterday due to being busy but there was nothing strange about #66... I didn't get to post 286 in my more careful readings and I think Racer is, best case scenario, really overthinking things. Would like to know ither people's thoughts but I do promise that I have more analysis in my upcoming post.

I don't think Racer is the scummiest of scum but I regret pushing him to a nullread in my head just because I wanted to have 3 scumreads at the most.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

*other people's thoughts

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I'm not sure if this is still a useful post because I took so long but I'm writing and posting it anyway.

Also note that I wrote this post over the course of 3 days and I've been rushing to finish it to catch up to this game. If I write something blatantly wrong or contradictory, please point it out.

---

Spoiler: Harlii (Post #267)

Some Thoughts About Harlii in General (more of a rant about my feelings than any analysis, skip if you don't care)

Harlii is honestly one of the most difficult players for me to read correctly in my short experience (let's say 2 months of chatroom games and 3 of face to face?) of Mafia. I'm definitely more of an emotional thinker who tries hard to be logical, so something about the way Harlii writes seems like he's a genuinely nice person. Yes, that obviously is not a towntell or anything worth considering, but during the early game the combination of a genuine tone and neutral questions made it seem like he was testing the game's waters and trying to get a good sense of everyone's alignment. I have a really difficult time telling if he's a newb!Town who just doesn't know when he should take a stance of his own or a really tactical scum player who had me convinced really quickly. I feel

horrible

lynching a Town!Harlii because he seems like a nice person and I'd feel responsible for cutting his first Mafia experience short, even if it's well-deserved. If we do lynch Scum!Harlii, then I have to say that I think he played a really good game and I admire his ability to blend in, even if he is the first lynch.

I think it's notable that if town!Harlii is real, there seems to be a lot of frustration coming from his posts (#247 and all posts beyond #267) and I really feel like this is something that, after town!Harlii is mislynched, will be looked at as "proof we should have known." Being annoyed or drained from pressure just seems like a more townish way to react to it to me, but I lack both experience and Harlii-meta to make town/scumreads based on someone's tone. Either way, it's another thing that just makes lynching a town!Harlii give me that feeling of guilt you get when you accidentally trip on or kick a puppy.

Mafia, though, is not a game about one's emotions. It's easy for me especially to get tangled up in them, and I'm sort of going against my intuitions because I suppose I

want

to believe Harlii is town. But I think the case against him is pretty solid, so the logical side of me has no problem with lynching him, even if it somehow dismantles the town. I just really had to get this out of my system, especially because it explains why I was so stubborn to read Harlii as town. There are more townier players now and I feel less bad about it now though than I did earlier.

Thoughts on Post #267

For better or for worse, Harlii

finally

pushes his own wagon.

He begins the post with a fair point: MNS may not be the best lynch today because there's so little to get out of it. Its early play seemed scummy, but I see town motivation coming from #277, especially because it could have posted a much more lazy prod-dodge. This is more about Harlii so I'll get to 277 later.

I generally dislike survival instincts from a townie, and I know saying this makes me a massive hypocrite considering House's gambit. Yes, having 2 less townies gives the town less voting power, but it's so much easier to make a case on D2 that it nearly makes up for it. Considering the stats Harlii brought up (I posted them, by the way), town's chance of correctly lynching goes from 20% on D1 to 33% on mislynch/no protection!D2. A 1 in 5 chance to a 1 in 3 chance is a

really

good trade if you want to call it that. There's no better scenario than getting a correct lynch, but if we have to settle for a mislynch it's not the end of the world.

On my defense of being lynched, it was less about me being mislynched than it was House's confidence horribly backfiring on him. Note that in #227, where I try to give my motivations for my defensiveness, my biggest point is that House seemed too overconfident about a flimsy case. If it were RC pushing for my lynch, it'd be a different story because he has been consistently scumreading me and his case against me would be stronger as a result. If House's scumread on me was legitimate and he tunneled on me that hard, I think seeing the unexpected result would throw off his reads and most likely the rest of the town's too. I don't think Harlii's lynch would be

as

disruptive if it were a mislynch, but it's hard to prepare for anyone's mislynch (which is why I constantly ask people to give plans, even if I don't think I could come up with something safe).

The reason that I was more in favor of lynching DP than Harlii (at first) was that DP's theoretical mislynch would be far more informative – it would practically clear Racer without the need of pressure. Now, though, I doubt that it's necessary to rely on a clear like that.

I don't think the plan "I'm going to keep going with my current reads" is as horrible as Harlii makes it out to be. Unless there was an obviously scummy vote on Harlii's wagon, I don't really see any associations being changed with your possible mislynch. The town out of the wagon really seems to differ so I think I'm going to take a few steps back and reconsider that though. Anyway, it's not the theoretically best mislynch, but I don't think there is a mislynch in this town as informative as DP's looked like when Racer/DP looked like a possible scumteam.

House is honestly the last person I'd push a case against but that's because only from my PoV does he look unbearably town, and I

do

at least want to understand scum!House if that's how he flips at the end.

On 1, I agree that many of House's plays were pretty manipulative and shocking. Is that inherently bad? Probably not, but it does look a bit unfair if it's a townie victim. Scum!House did have a lot to gain by putting himself in such a position of power, which is why I started doubting House a little bit at that point. Assuming a scum motivation, it's a smart play on House's part. Thing is, House has taken a lot of risks this game and I see putting himself in that hammering position was also a powerful play with town motivation. Such a crazy reaction test was completely unpredicted by everyone, and that's why it was so effective. Perhaps too effective, seeing as though I stopped it early by agreeing with DP and unvoting him. It still allowed House to strengthen his case on the players involved in that gambit.

For 2, that was an even crazier reaction test. You can really make any dumb play and cry "It was a gambit all along!" but I think the fact that House's case against me was flimsy was an intentional move. If he had a stronger case on me and didn't tunnel so hard, he would look flip-floppy if he said "Just kidding! Giga's town guys!" after that. So, really, he had to look overconfident for his reaction test to work because it proves that it's, well, a reaction test and not a real vote.

For 3, I think 2 kind of gives enough for a justification but House should answer for himself.

Spoiler: Short Thoughts on House's Gambit

What I mean to say was that the gambit idea – fighting with me to see if scum would jump on the opportunity to lynch me – was a brilliant concept. I think most people who read it either sided with House or saw it as a TvT conflict (if anyone sees it as SvS tho hmu ur input is valuable there), so there really was a realistic chance of the play succeeding. I think what stopped an otherwise clever play though was that post #227, posted when I calmed down after the whole thing, might have given people more reasons not to take House's bait.

In a nutshell, the idea behind the play was really clever and it

partially

worked (it got Harlii and DP's attention for sure but I can't comment on whether or not they're scum without a flip to be quite honest), but I think me pointing out how strange it seemed messed it up a little. Is it still fallacious to compliment House on it? Legitimately curious.

Spoiler: Racer64 (Post #275)

I think Racer64 is wildly misinterpreting post #66 in order to make a case. Initially, I thought this might be a town thing to do considering that it shows that he went far back enough to study the communications of two people put under suspicion, but after thinking about it more it's a bit scummy.

Harlii's comment was more likely referring to me constantly saying that I wasn't suspicious of House because of post 11/12, not post 11/12 itself. This seems like a serious stretch to make, especially because I don't think anyone saw 11/12 as a scumhunting move until I clarified that it was in #80!

The scumminess of this post comes from:

• A: The fact that it's
  such
  a stretch. How could Harlii and I have planned for literally
  all
  of this game's RVS? I placed a completely random vote, as did Harlii. The whole thing started because House voted for the same person as Harlii! That means that we would have had to predict that someone would vote for the same person as one of us, and what's the likelihood of that? It'd make more sense to argue that this is proof of a Giga/House scumteam if anything. Otherwise, it just
  makesnosense
  . (Sorry guys, last time)
  
  B: I think most people (i.e., Town) forgot about the PT being open. It's believable that Town!Racer went back and noticed post 4, but with such a flimsy case against Harlii and I, I wouldn't have brought it up. The post seems more like scum desperately trying to build a case around two players put under suspicion.

I really don't need a spoiler for answering post 277 so:

• A: I was really stubborn about townreading Harlii around post 155. Yes, that post was mostly fluff, but that's how Harlii has been posting throughout most of the game so I was inclined to believe that that was his playstyle. I let it slide because it gave me an idea of what his reads are, and they were pretty different from what the rest of the playerbase felt at the time.
  
  B: House is so towny it hurts. But only I can really feel that way. House's fight with me really could only have been done by a town player without it backfiring horribly, so unless House is trying to pull WIFOM on me, he's "the safest townread" from my POV. I only felt a little doubt about that because I felt he was too quick to hammer DP, but that wagon's over and I think its effect on the town was a net-positive, so...

And for Kraska on post #279, her case is mostly built around House (most likely) intentionally tunneling on me. And I honestly didn't really think House's vote on Harlii was naked, and he covers that later. Pretty much all I have to say here.

286... is really bad. There was nothing odd about Harlii's comment in 66, like at all. My play at the time was strange and I don't understand why pointing that out automatically means that we're a scumteam.

At this point, if racer's on the same wagon as me then I'm out. UNVOTE: Harlii
I can still buy a scum!Harlii but there's

two

scum and I'd rather go out for someone scummier.

On 313, my votes are generally not to get lynches until I'm completely sure of myself. Harlii seemed very scummy and he has yet to have a wagon on him, so voting for him seemed pretty valid to see how it would go down. It got momentum very quickly which makes me think that at least one of its voters is scum. I think I want to do voting analysis later.

Harlii's 319 is a good post. Honestly, I think that's my readlist too atm, with Harlii in the same position as MNS/KM, maybe higher. My "emotional" take on town!Harlii is explained here, so I don't have to rewrite that. If anything, I feel good about the Harlii wagon because now a town!Harlii has upped his game a bit and is posting less fluff.

On 329, it was {Harlii, MNS, DP} in that order, but it's different now. I don't have 3 scumreads any more, which is bad and why as I'm writing this, I'm trying to narrow it down more. Maybe {KM, DP/Foe, Racer64}? I really don't know how to feel about DP and Foe.

With 332, I honestly can see why a town!Foe would push for DP so hard, which is why I'm not ready to jump onto Foe yet. Will have to see how ai_shuuu decides to take this to make a clearer read on this post, though.

Spoiler: 333, aka KM's entrance

so that quote KM opened up with was not saying we shouldn't suspect House, I was pointing out what seemed like a game design flaw at the time. Giving so much responsibility to a single player seems like it could only go wrong. I no longer feel this way, considering that SE's can help out too and that usually by day 2 most towns get the ropes of this game. Doesn't dismiss KM wanting to read it with the intention of finding out alignments, of course.

I don't really see how saying "accused" implies that in that theoretical scenario, House is scum. I can accuse you of being scum right now but that doesn't mean you are scum until you flip.

The House ""wagon"" was convenient to jump onto at the moment for a scum!MNS to jump on because House's actions were being put into question. The timing of that RVS vote was just bad, and the lack of a joke reason made it seem like a real vote. I understand House's defensiveness here.

I really don't like KM's insistence that the only purpose of a vote is to get someone lynched. People react to being voted for and wagonned onto, and that's how you get reads. RVS wouldn't be a thing if KM were right, anyway.

I still don't think House was thinking anti-town = scum. Note that in 36, House still acknowledges a best-case scenario in which both RC and MNS are just being anti-town.

I don't see where in post 68 Racer implies he doesn't want to lynch House early. He gives him as a nullscum read, yes, but you're reading too deep into that post if you think that's what he meant.

With your comment on 69, are you suggesting {Foe, House} as a scumteam? Why, then, would RC "hath foresaken [thee]" if he's going after the other member of your scumteam?

78 is consistent with 36. An anti-town action can come from a town member, yes, but then you have to ask the question

why?

. With MNS, the answer to that would either be A: RVS, which is null, or B: Anticipating a House-wagon too early, which is very scummy.

I've stressed why I think only a town!House could have pushed me that hard enough times, so I'll leave that be. You might as well say that House breadcrumbed the fact that it was a reaction test with the way he acted.

#340 is also a good post... I know I said I can see why town!Foe might push on DP so hard, but DP finally made better arguments against Foe that I'm now a bit more shaky on the whole argument. I reread the entire thread up to like the early 100s (around the DP wagon's tipping point) and I still kind of side with Foe there. At the same time though, I don't like how Foe was eager to go with a DP lynch but hesitant about Harlii. I'm probably going to read through their interactions yet again because I have no clue who I think is scummier.

---

Readlist, I suppose:

Townier side

House
RC
Giga (that's me )
raska
harlii and KM
foe
DP
racer64

Scummier side

My next vote will either be on Racer or DP unless someone convinces me that Foe is scum.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

when i get the opportunity to come back to this game i will do an ISO dive of Foe and DP. My vote will come after I can get a clearer opinion on Foe vs. DP.

also sorry ai_shuuu for continuously referring to foe, welcome to this game!!

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I mentioned this earlier, I tend to put myself in places other than the top of my list because I want to guess where I think people generally read me. It also makes comparing readlists easier, because the list I just put up is pretty close to Harlii's. I guess it's pretty stupid but I've consistently done it.

It doesn't really mean anything if I put myself at the top of the list so I stopped doing that pretty early in my mafia-experience.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

so I stopped doing that pretty early in my mafia-experience.

Cool, link to the change?

i can't exactly link to chatroom games from months ago, can I? I meant mafia as a whole, not MafiaScum.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

{House, gigabyteTroubadour} – Yes, I do tend to include myself in reads in places other than the very top. I think it's useful to gauge how I think the town should be/is reading me, and I think I am around the townier side of null. Anyway, my ploy at the very beginning of the game seemed confusing and didn't end up helping that much (other than getting out of RVS which is always good). But, the goal was to see how the town would be divided about something so innocuous, and I thought it worked (until MNS clarified that it voted randomly... but still, way too coincidental).

If you're wondering what it is at this point...

Town
House
Foe
Raska/RC

Mafia
Racer64

gigabyteTroubadour

MNS/Harlii
DoctorPepper

if anything i find it weird you point this out now, rather than when I scumread myself

[gigabyteTroubadour]

@Mod, you have Kaori Miyazono down as makesnosense still on the most recent vote count!

Thank you! Fixed -IV

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Can you address the other points I brought up please? I will concede this, and I am well aware that anti-scum and anti-town actions come from either alignment, but the question is more in regards to how he was treating Foe and RC in that post.

Point me to specific points. I'm not willing to write another wall because writing walls are even more anti-town than skimming them. And I say this as someone who has written many walls. This ended up as one and I'm mad.

The issue with your whole interaction with House is that I don't particularly think anyone else was wary of you at that point in time. I was not really concerned with you at any point in the game. If House REALLY wanted to try and get an opportunistic scum to jump on a wagon, why not suddenly push someone who wasn't particularly on anyone's radar? Why you? There was much stronger bait amidst this town.

RC had me as a pretty strong scumread consistently throughout the game, Racer had me as a light scumread, and DP implied that I was the scummier one out of the two of us. This is why I like to "read" myself, it gives me an idea of where I think everyone else sees me at the moment. Then (pre-argument), I felt like I was a nullread player, maybe leaning town. That's the perfect position for that sort of gambit: People

want

to find someone to scumread since this is a game about finding scum, and what better person to accuse than someone who (to you) is very town, but ambiguous-town or scummy to everyone else? You can't push on a universal townread (RC, for example), and House wouldn't have gotten the reaction he wanted from casting suspicion on an incredibly scummy player (say, DP at the time).

Who do

you

think would have been better bait? Because I think I was the only possible bait for such a gambit.

A second question- If you were scum, would you have joined the wagon on you or would you have defended you against House's push? (This is rather poorly phrased, let me know if I need to reword this.)

I probably would have bitten the bait, to be honest, but not immediately. I would have done what scum!Harlii and scum!DP did – sit back and commentate, but don't take too strong of a stance until town does. I'd expect town to side with House, and so if town didn't take action I would have gone for myself.

A third- If you could say he breadcrumbed it with the way he acted, how could he have expected anyone to fall for it in the first place?

Because the entire point of breadcrumbing is that it's supposed to be realized retrospectively. Sheeping onto a wagon the way I did at the time was scummy, and people had every right to be suspicious of me. House was very nitpicky in his argument, which I believe is part of his meta. In the heat of the moment, House really did seem like he was ready to lynch me. It's only if you're looking for reasons to believe that the argument was staged does it all come apart.

Would you like to know why scum-house could have done this?
Look at your reaction to this. You have him as your lock townread. He can easily bring you later in the game without having to be as concerned about you.

Just because someone is my top townread (or even "so towny it hurts") doesn't mean they can dart down to the bottom very quickly. Look at Harlii. He went from townread #1 to scumread #1 to a nulltown read. I'm not that great at Mafia or that smart, but I sure as hell know when to change my reads when it's appropriate. You joining a game for the sole purpose of getting House lynched tells me it's not that time yet.

Honestly?
VOTE: Kaori "Notty" Miyazono

I don't care if this ends up wasting a mislynch, we've got 2 and maybe a night kill will lower the suspect pool. I don't like anything about this situation at all.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

the explanations he won't make (and gets away with not making for some weird reason)

This is true... Why

did

RC vote House initially? Yeah, RC said he wouldn't explain it if he didn't suspect House after the 21st, but it's still pretty important to know what happened.

If the Kaori lynch doesn't go through, the next best wagon is still Racer.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

way back when you were at L-1 that's what my justification for risking a mislynch was because the only reason i suspected racer64 was scummy was because he blatantly tried to distance himself from you, who I suspected was scum. If you're town, then that reason means nothing. Now though I think there are more reasons to poke at Racer64 and I'm going to think about those tomorrow.

Even in that quote I say that it was only relevant at the time and was a completely theoretical scenario. Mislynching you isn't going to affect my read on Racer any more.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I guess, but that was my thought process at the time. I still think lynches should affect your reads, and Racer would have been moved to a more town or null read.

I'd have to agree though that safest lynches are probably ai_shuuu or Racer64.

And before i forget... UNVOTE: Kaori "Notty" Miyazono.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I think everyone should try to come up with two or three people to lynch tomorrow so that we can try to all be on the same page.

VOTE: Racer64

Not my end-all-be-all vote but there has been a lack of Racer pressure and I think this might be the right person to poke. Will see if I can build an actual case around him, I didn't like his role in the Harlii wagon but I do want to articulate my words into an actual case.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I'd really rather we didn't lynch Harlii today.

I don't trust the wagon or

its voters

at this point.

@RC, can you clarify this statement a bit better? I felt the wagon picked up momentum very quickly but I'm not suspicious of any of its original members.

To note, it kind of contradicts with your reads. The wagon was you, me, DP, and House at first, then when you jumped ship Racer took over. You still have a townread on DP and you still townread House, yeah? You saying that you don't trust its voters though is different from saying you don't like the fact I'm pushing it because you distrust me. I'm a single person, you can just say you distrust me without implying suspicion onto House or DP if you legitimately townread them at the time. It would make sense for you to write what you wrote if you meant both Racer and me, but then you unvoted from the wagon before Racer was a part of it so I'm not sure if that's your intention.

I'm looking at the Harlii wagon because it's pretty much the only critical interaction Racer was a part of, and I'm not really sure I like the case he pushed on Harlii during and after the wagon. Also, I thought it was weird he gave intent to be the L-1 vote and can only see it as new scum trying to show caution about being responsible for a mislynch.

If I need to elaborate I'll do it after I sleep.

also i'm sorry to nag about this but are you still writing that case on Foe/Ai_shuuu? I'm starting to move DP further up my townreads and so I think I want to hear what your perspective is on it, especially since you've been on Foe for a bit.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Serious question, what kind of a discussion do we need to have to make good use of our extension? I feel as though we're down to deciding between ai_shuuu and racer as our lynchee, so do we just post the respective cases on them? Is there anyone strongly opposed to lynching either of those two?

I feel as though suggesting an entirely new target *might* take up too much time but I don't want to inhibit discussion. Apathy's terrible and it's just going to get worse now that Harlii's dropping out.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I felt like one of the two of House/RC was town and one was scum.

I have townreads on everyone else, but I can't figure out you two. Kraska makes more sense as an RC partner.

I've been thinking on this and I actually think that out of all of scum!House's possible partners, Racer makes the least sense. If they're the two scumplayers, then why would House get off the MNS wagon to bus him? It's not like House had anything to really gain from telling everyone that he scumread his partner because of a readlist. Maybe it created some WIFOM now that I'm using that situation to discredit the scumteam, but scum!House had a perfectly fine wagon in MNS that would have ended in a mislynch.

I think RC/Racer and House/Kraska make more sense if I were to believe your reads to be perfect.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Hey fiddlercrab, I know it's a long read but when you're done (or as you're going) you should post a readlist just so we know where you stand.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Actually, I'm willing to go with your read if you want to push ai and can give me a case since we have an extension.

I thought Kaori townreads ai_shuuu? I still really want to hear out RC's case, I'm willing to wait since it's the only loose end to this day that I really can think of

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I know, oops. The way 504 was phrased, I had the impression you believed that Kaori, whether he is town or scum, scumread Ai_shuu and you were asking for a case on why he scumreads him. Since ai_shuuu is the other person we seem to be considering for lynching, I

would

like to hear both sides to his wagon since I'm pretty neutral on it. I guess I never really considered calling reasons to townread someone a "case", but it does make sense.

Sorry for the misunderstanding.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I'm still processing the post but thank you so much for that RC.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Anything you'd like to say about this apparent contradiction, Giggles?

first of all giggles is my new nickname please keep using it

And I made that comment (64) when people have only expressed townreads for me. Once Racer and RC said that they scumread me though, I went back to try to understand why and I at least saw Racer's reasons. I didn't exactly agree that they made me scummy, but I gave them weight and realized how they could affect one's perception of me. A lot can happen in 37 posts to change reads, even if they are shitty attempts at reading yourself.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

OK that comment he made about House having too much power on everyone is kinda funny especially considering that he was the first to sheep House.

Only points in your case I didn't quite agree with entirely are:

• I didn't get any wariness from 38 (maybe slightly 39?). I don't really know how your town-playing reputation is, especially because I know you better as one of the best scum players (that scummie isn't there for nothing!). Foe would have either had to be a very active lurker on these forums or scumbuddy!DP told scum!Foe, since House claimed that he didn't know of your reputation in that way. At least this does explain your initial House vote.
  
  If foe/ai_shuuu flips town, and that's a pretty big if because your case did sell me, then I can kind of see where 108 might have come from. At the time of the DP wagon, one of the reasons I was eager to push it was that I really didn't like how DP was constantly getting facts about his and Foe's interaction wrong and saw that as scummy. I could only imagine for a town!Foe that it would be infuriating. Like, in real life, I tend to exaggerate issues if I feel like they're not getting the attention they deserve and I think that could be what was on town!Foe's mind. It certainly is very awkwardly written and emotional but I think that's just how Foe writes (post 79 is a pretty good example, but it's not emotional).

Those are really minor nitpicks to me though and overall I am really glad you pointed out things I missed despite going through Foe's ISO multiple times...

Another reason I'm ready to change wagons again:

foedufafa [1] This is more intuition than anything solid. Take it with a grain of salt.

This quote from Racer. Even at the time, House said that this readlist is incredibly contrived.

Except for Harlii and Foe (town reads) and DP (nullread), everyone in the town was given a scumread for very weak reasons (except mine tbf). Even worse, though, is that Foe isn't even given a reason to be townread. I thought it was too obvious to be a distancing attempt, but this is making me want to look into the possibility of a Ai_shuuu/Racer team.

VOTE: Ai_shuuu

This puts him at L-1.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

and RC

ok RC never said they scumread me until 125 but my point still stands, my personal read changed when Racer scumread me and I wanted to look into why.

and even then, saying you're a universal townread is different from saying you think your play might be viewed as a little scummy, since only how other players read you is what matters. I'm not sure if I'm making sense but it's not like the entire concept of putting oneself into an actual spot in a readlist makes sense to anyone besides myself

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Making sense is quite important when your thought patterns conflict in a way that contradict each other.

How was I supposed to know, at the time of writing post 64, that someone who hadn't even posted anything substantial yet scumread me? As far as I knew, the two people who had any input in terms of reads townread me and no one else said anything about what I was doing, so I made a hasty assumption that that meant my play was town indicative. Was I wrong? Clearly. I understand your nitpickiness, but I have to wonder what you're trying to get at out of this.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

But the problem is, the possibility of me and racer as scumteam is based on rather weak assumptions, and thats make your reason to put me on L-1 really weak, isn't it?
Are you sure you want to do this?

It's based on a rather weak assumption because there has been very little from Racer64. It's almost impossible to use associative tells as a way of building a case around him.

It's far from my sole reason of changing wagons, too. I said it was my reason to put you at L-1 because it was one way I could connect you and Racer if you flip red, and so I don't feel as bad going against voting my bigger scumread. I think besides the slight nitpicks that RC's case was very persuasive and that's what made me feel ready to move votes.

Plus, I thought it was another interesting part of a post I've been studying for a while, especially because I had dismissed it in the beginning.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

If he's hammered before fiddler catches up I will likely run the hammerer into the dirt tomorrow, just saying.

This'll be fun...

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Giggles, we should hang out sometime

I bet you're a lot of fun.

My personality irl is kind of hit-or-miss. Some people get

tired

of me! Uncrediblievable!

Everyone should probably shut up. I only want to know wait ai thinks of the hammer

lmao you're last person who should be asking ai about that

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Oh my god that wasn't a hammer

no kraska do not vote, let's at least get fiddler to comment :C

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I think Fiddlercrab's still at their classes, so...?

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Does twilight end as soon as the death scene comes? Because if not then maybe we should start the night when fiddlercrab comes along...?

[gigabyteTroubadour]

VOTE: ai_shuu

If this is a scumflip diagonal PR is on Dr. Pepper.

To make this perfectly clear: we are not going to look for softs tomorrow. If you have not targeted Dr. Pepper and you get killed before you claim we are assuming that your target was Dr. Pepper.

Don't be awful, target them. that hammer was sketchy as fuck.

Does this still apply since DP's vote was a fakehammer?

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Well now that we know that was a fake hammer, then obviously that was just DP's last big push to make ai-shuuu talk/claim

RC already knew all that and was playing into it to feed the fear.

I thought he didn't pick up on it until post 570?

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I'm pretty sure the entire wagon vs. ai_shuuuu was town, but if anyone disagrees I'd like to know... I still want to push a Racer64 wagon but I don't know if it's considered normal to immediately start voting on day 2? This is more of a question of site culture, I know in LYLO it's horrible to vote immediately.

There's not really much I can think of in terms of NKA, so I say that we should ignore it for the time being unless someone thinks they found something really interesting through it. Also, I doubt it'll be helpful, but I'm almost done with a VCA spreadsheet if anyone wants to look at how the wagons moved yesterday.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

It isn't LYLO yet Giga, thats tomorriw if we mislynch today.

I know it's not, but is it still OK for me to vote?

And I definitely agree with RC here, there's pretty much no reason for the BPT to not claim.

So, assuming there

is

a BPT:
(floating is so shitty on this what the fuck??)

Spoiler: Why it's cool to claim

On a correct lynch and BPT is shot

• Day 2: Scum is lynched. 5 townies and 1 scum.
  Night 2: BPT is shot. 5 townies and 1 scum.
  Day 3: Townie is mislynched. 4 townies and 1 scum.
  Night 3: BPT is shot. 3 townies and 1 scum. (MYLO)
  Day 4: NL. 3 townies and 1 scum.
  Night 4: Townie is shot. 2 townies and 1 scum. (LYLO)
  Day 5 is the final day.
  
  (2 lynches until LYLO)

On a correct lynch and BPT is not shot

• Day 2: Scum is lynched. 5 townies and 1 scum.
  Night 2: Townie is shot. 4 townies and 1 scum.
  Day 3: BPT is lynched. 3 townies and 1 scum.
  Night 3: Townie is shot. 2 townies and 1 scum (LYLO)
  Day 4 is the final day.
  
  (2 lynches until LYLO)

On a mislynch and BPT is shot

• Day 2: Townie lynched. 4 townies and 2 scum.
  Night 2: BPT is shot. 4 townies and 2 scum. (MYLO)
  Day 3: NL. 4 townies and 2 scum.
  Night 3: BPT is shot. 3 townies and 2 scum. (LYLO)
  Day 4 is the final day.
  
  (1 lynch until LYLO)

On a mislynch and BPT is not shot

• Day 2: Townie lynched. 4 townies and 2 scum.
  Night 2: Townie is shot. 3 townies and 2 scum. (LYLO)
  
  Day 3 is the final day.
  
  (1 lynch until LYLO)

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I guess it does give you a free MYLO in the bottom left scenario if the BPT is not lynched but why would you not NL then?

Also, fiddler, most of my scumread on Racer comes from the fact that very little of what he has said, at least to me, seems like it could have come through with town motivation. I was OK with lynching someone else because I think he needs more pressure so that we can get a more accurate read.

Also your reads are more or less the same as mine atm, 'xcept I do have a nulltown on RC and I'm a bit hesitant to trust your slot. I don't feel as good townreading DP (RC ninjad me with exactly why) as I did before but there are definitely more scummy players. Definitely OK with a DP lynch but I'd be late to that wagon.

VOTE: Racer64 would love some input from you soon, I know you're busy <3

[gigabyteTroubadour]

RC, i have work, school and playing CSGO and Overwatch and I was still more active than you

Ps, check back to when I was L-1 as to why i could be bp. And wouldnt it be weird if i claimed BP after 1 vote and not be BP?

If you're referring to 139, then I would see it as the best interest of pretty much anyone to not claim there... I'm especially wary of BPT claims early game because it's a pretty easy thing for Mafia to safely fakeclaim.

For now, I believe your claim but I still am giving you the good ol'

GOS: Dr. Pepper

. KM, Fiddler, and Racer are much more interesting to me at the moment.

Speaking of which, Fiddler, what are your thoughts on your old slot's play?

[gigabyteTroubadour]

*139

no idea why i linked it to that post

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I kinda mentioned that in my walls that I think Harlii is either a natural scumplayer or just really new at mafia, and the more I think about it I think my intuition (that they're new to mafia) is probably true...

I'm really starting to psyche myself back into a DP/Racer scum team... I'll have to give it some thought and time though.

On knowing the roles, since House was revealed as a jailkeeper, there's two scenarios:

• A: Mafia team consists of two goons and town has no other power roles.
  B: Mafia team consists of a goon and roleblocker, town has a bulletproof townie.

A BPT, like RC said, should come out and claim when asked to. So as you implied you figured out, DP actually claimed

late

to seem pro-town, he shouldn't have waited until RC gave him a vote. Since the mafia know whether or not there is a BPT, that's pretty suspicious because he could use the fact that no one else

should

claim BPT to throw us off and give him conftown status.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

We might have to NKA House based on interactions, but for now

I said I wasn't going to do it but I have an idea I want to try out.

I want everyone (myself included) to answer this question:

If you were scum, who would you kill and why?

My intention isn't to pin blame onto someone who answers House or something dumb like that, but I do have something I want to figure out through this question. I'm thinking that, if I can get at least 1 other person to agree with me, we could answer this popcorn style? If someone doesn't know what that means, that just means that after you answer the question, you pick who you want to answer next. If someone else thinks it's a good idea but doesn't volunteer to answer first, I'll go first.

And, yes, I'm aware scum may lie, but it doesn't really matter if they answer honestly.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

go ahead fiddler

I have an idea as to what people will answer and what I hope to derive from it, there's a situation I've been in in a chatroom game that I think is very similar to what's going on here, and while this is not what was done then, I think this is the right way to approach the situation?

Sorry I'm being super vague, if I outright say what I want (or even vaguely suggest it) it will ruin it. I'll explain after I get 7 answers (or 6, there's someone I'm OK with not answering).

---

I definitely agree with fiddler, actually. I would like to know people's reads on the newbies (me, fiddler, racer, and kraska) because I feel like most of this game's focus has been on House and DP.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Actually, I thought of a better way to phrase the question:

Who did you expect to be the nightkill and why?

The old question kind of deterred people from answering themselves.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Who do you want to answer next, Fiddler?

[gigabyteTroubadour]

all right i guess we're not popcorning, I was going to go to DP if we

did

popcorn

I pretty much agree that I'd be NK target #1 because of my nearly universally townread status. If not me, then probably RC because I thought that his reaction to the DP fakehammer was the PR response to it. Clearly I'm wrong about that, though.

Popcorning to Kaori, if it matters.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

i mean i'm cool with that because at least one of them is scum, possibly both but I want to know what the deal with Racer is.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

i mean can i just say that if there's no way RC's getting lynched (which I agree, I doubt DP, KM, Racer, and Fiddler can get a wagon together), then any sort of a push on RC is a waste of time and thus anti-town. If KM really thinks they have a convincing case then by all means go for it, but for now I think there are better ways to use our energy.

For example, if Racer were town, shouldn't he be prodded right now? It's been a pretty long time since he's last been prodded, so I'm thinking that maybe he had some activity in the scum PT that, you know, made sure he didn't get prodded...

What I'm trying to say though is that while I'm totally cool with RC lynching DP and KM, I really want activity from Racer's slot because I think there's a good shot it's scum.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

i mean can i just say that if there's no way RC's getting lynched (which I agree, I doubt DP, KM, Racer, and Fiddler can get a wagon together), then any sort of a push on RC is a waste of time and thus anti-town? If KM really thinks they have a convincing case then by all means go for it, but for now I think there are better ways to use our energy.

For example, if Racer were town, shouldn't he be prodded right now? It's been a pretty long time since he's last been prodded, so I'm thinking that maybe he had some activity in the scum PT that, you know, made sure he didn't get prodded...

What I'm trying to say though is that while I'm totally cool with RC lynching DP and KM, I really want activity from Racer's slot because I think there's a good shot it's scum.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

pardon the double post

[gigabyteTroubadour]

And he's hardly done anything to make me think he's scum, unlike you. I don't understand your play throughout this game and at the moment I'm not ready to lynch anyone, but I'm not opposed to it because I hardly see any town motivation coming from you.

As for DP, I hardly trust any BPT claim. I think the way he claimed was suspicious and I have consistently been scumreading him throughout the game. Do I regret loosening it yesterday? Yes.

I'm not pushing for anyone's lynch until I figure out what the hell to do with Racer.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I mean there's been a pattern of some of the things I want to say getting ignored, but it's fine. I think it reflects on your motivations in this game.

I felt like one of the two of House/RC was town and one was scum.

I have townreads on everyone else, but I can't figure out you two. Kraska makes more sense as an RC partner.

I've been thinking on this and I actually think that out of all of scum!House's possible partners, Racer makes the least sense. If they're the two scumplayers, then why would House get off the MNS wagon to bus him? It's not like House had anything to really gain from telling everyone that he scumread his partner because of a readlist. Maybe it created some WIFOM now that I'm using that situation to discredit the scumteam, but scum!House had a perfectly fine wagon in MNS that would have ended in a mislynch.

I think RC/Racer and House/Kraska make more sense if I were to believe your reads to be perfect.

It's kind of too late but your RC/Kraska scumteam didn't make sense at the time, especially considering that it was done via process of elimination (Either RC or House is scum, so that means each of the nullread players go to one of them). I realize a direct question was not asked here, but I'm surprised you didn't humor a counterargument to something you suggested.

Now, I can at least see where it could come from but the day is still young, and Kraska is my strongest townread.

Can you address the other points I brought up please? I will concede this, and I am well aware that anti-scum and anti-town actions come from either alignment, but the question is more in regards to how he was treating Foe and RC in that post.

Point me to specific points. I'm not willing to write another wall because writing walls are even more anti-town than skimming them. And I say this as someone who has written many walls. This ended up as one and I'm mad.

I'm also still waiting for this.

Who did you expect to be the nightkill and why?

Popcorning to Kaori, if it matters.

And this, too.

---

I feel like this whole game would have worked out entirely differently if an actual newbie took MNS's slot or if KM were just open about the fact that he's notty... Posting multiple walls and tunneling House has done nothing beneficial to town, if anything it bred a lot of apathy because no one is interested in fights like the one you had with House or the one between KM, DP, and RC. At least the thing with House and KM would have turned out differently if KM just came out as an alt, the drama was incredibly unnecessary.

So really, KM, if you're going to keep going in this direction, I want a case against RC. Otherwise, this is going to make our town apathy even worse.

And if you want questions:

• 1. Why join this game?
  
  2. Why join this game as Kaori Miyazono?
  
  3. Why
  scumread
  not townread RC? I'm talking about D1 stuff only.
  
  4.

  As scum, I either ply really passively or stupidly reckless (As in, lynch someone in 24 hours for saying the word "lamp" reckless.)

  Is joining a game by posing as a newbie (House was definitely not the only person to think this, and I'm pretty sure you know this too), giving a wallcase on someone who everyone townread (and, whoop-de-doo, was town), and tunneling on what even you said was an unrealistic lynch not recklessly stupid?
  
  5. Did you form your reads before or after joining this game? If you're going to say before, what was your impression of MNS?

I also think there's something disingenuous about how you write walls (I know, stones and glass houses) and say you're just leaving it up there for discussion. Since I think that most of the content you wrote was bs-ass bullshit (and I know I'm not alone), my intuition tells me that it's a very earnest attempt at faking scumhunting and, well, promoting pro-town action.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I'm not convinced you're lying, I literally said that I believe your claim a few pages back. It just don't make you conftown to me. Nor is RC anyway conftown. I see absolutely no scum motivation coming from RC, that's why I don't scumread him. I've consistently nulltownread him and it's not going to change for a while.

This town is only hopeless for two reasons: A: Since KM joined, town discussion has been nothing but the non-newbies fighting about each other's metas, and B: Racer probably flaked out, which means that we don't have an entire slot to read and use for discussion. If we all can put aside our differences (mostly talking to you and RC) then maybe we can actually find scum and progress through this game.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

look maybe it was extreme of me to say that i was ok with your lynch, but i have scumread you for most of the game. I really do agree with RC's point that a BPT claim is really sketchy but I disagree with lynching you first.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

It just

doesn't

make you conftown to me.

EBWOP

[gigabyteTroubadour]

See i dont see why you have universal townread status. You constantly flake out with your beliefs and youre afraid to commit to a read.

wait at first i thought this was directed at RC but was it actually directed at me?

because i can explain myself if it is

[gigabyteTroubadour]

See i dont see why you have universal townread status. You constantly flake out with your beliefs and youre afraid to commit to a read.

wait at first i thought this was directed at RC but was it actually directed at me?

because i can explain myself if it is

Yes

aight

House, Kraska, and RC have pretty much been townreads for me the whole game. Foe

was

up there until more people started to throw suspicion at him. I was starting to see the case against him on my own but I wanted to hear it out from RC. I had some doubts about it but I didn't see a more viable lynch candidate, plus ai_shuuu's reaction was pretty bad (but not unwarranted). Fiddler is being nulltownread by me because the Foe flip made me realize that I was overanalyzing Harlii's play and I really do think he was just a confused newbie. I honestly feel really bad for him.

My scumreads all have had very little material to work from, which is the bad thing. MNS was barely active, and Racer's lack of activity is really problematic for town. You're pretty much the only exception, and since the start of the ai_shuuu wagon (maybe around post 340?) you've been moved up to a nullread. I understand you were busy and that could explain some of the actions you were being scumread for, which is why I am not 100% willing to scumread you.

When RC pressured the BPT to come out, I wasn't expecting you to come out. Scum had pretty much no reason to NK you from D1, so your play as a BPT did not really compute with me. With an outed and dead JK, there's no point in really hiding, so when you needed pressure to come out, I was suspicious.

I really don't think this is how he'd react if he was actually bulletproof. He claimed under pressure from the person who he was voting and claiming as his #1 scumread.
I don't think that town would do that. It feels more like him knowing that I'm town and getting jumpy about it.

^ This interpretation of the events made sense to me at the time. If you are scum, then I don't see how this isn't what happened. Thing is, from your fight with RC and your reaction to this whole thing, I'm really starting to doubt you're scum.

Also, on policy lynching, I normally hate it, but based on the newbie games I've read from RC, it seems more like a personality thing to suggest than anything alignment indicative. I wouldn't be opposed to it because Kaori gets lynched during lylo, and like RC said, a BPT claim inherently has a 50% chance of being scum, versus everyone else whose chances are much lower (in terms of solely random thinking). It's definitely not something I'm going to encourage, though. My options are stay out of it and not really mind it, or oppose it. By saying that I'm cool with it, I was picking the first option.

I'm pretty sure the entire wagon vs. ai_shuuuu was town, but if anyone disagrees I'd like to know...

I am now standing by this statement once again. I think the scumteam is KM / Racer at this point but it's mostly process of elimination. If it helps process this better...

{Kraska} - Town
{RC, Fiddler} - Nulltown
{DP} - Null
{KM} - Nullscum
{Racer} - Probably scum but I cannot actually make a scumread with like 9 posts.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

i'm not really willing to move you past a nullread until kaori answers the question i popcorned btw

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Heres where I have a problem. Your largest scum read is someone with 9 posts.
Also in what time could I have claimed without it seeming sketchy? When exactly? Because you guys have already built up a bias against me to the point that anytime I would havr claimed would be suspicious

Well there's the reason I voted to lynch Ai_shuuu, Racer was too busy for me to make a good case on him because there's no material to work with. I think he's going to get prodded (or force replaced?) really soon anyway so hopefully I can make a better call on this later.

And, if you didn't want the claim to seem weird, you should have claimed on your first post of the day, as RC asked. Usually with a request like that (and coming from RC who I know would actually try to push a lynch on someone who refused or claimed at the wrong time), I'd be honest and claim immediately. I really do believe your claim, and I really hope we can put this whole conflict aside because the more it goes on the more I think it's TvT.

---

This is honestly one of the scummiest towns I've dealt with in my experience of mafia and I hate scumreading everyone, that's mostly why everyone's null. Kraska's the only read I'm confident in and I'm pretty sure RC and Fiddler are town. Maybe the tiers should be {Definitely town}, {Most likely town}, and {I guess town but I don't really think I should commit until the question that pretty much determines the side i take on this conflict gets answered}.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I think you're overestimating the amount of trust I am placing in RC.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

hey RC serious question that i think i asked earlier but got buried

You've been pretty strongly scumreading me throughout day 1, has that changed at all? If so, why? I'm not really concerned about the read itself, it's just that a lot of people have been emphasizing the fact I have "universal townread status" when you and racer have scumread me the whole game.

Sorry to totally divert the topic. Like I kept saying, if this

has

to be RC vs. DP, then I'm not going to be swayed either way until I can get the answer to the questions I want (since, of course, I have follow-up questions to ask after Kaori answers my popcorned question).

---

oh my god why do you guys have to be like this...

[gigabyteTroubadour]

see the thing is i really don't

want

to play this safely, I literally cannot express the opinion I want to because it could interfere with the question I want town to answer. After Kaori and maybe Kraska answers it, I'll give more of a decisive opinion on this.

But this is really annoyingly TvT. I want you guys to make up because of that, but I'm worried that a policy lynch is actually the right thing to do because I'm seeing very little hope for reconciliation.

And if you want conviction from me?
VOTE: Kaori "Notty" Miyazono

A vote on Racer, I suppose, is pretty useless.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Why is RC town?
On the notty vote tho, go ahead. Pressure that, i wanna see you have more conviction on your reads

i think i'm going to have to wallcase town!RC, so i'll give it to you tomorrow (it's 4 am so like in 16 hours at the very least because I can't sleep)

and ok what's bothering me about you denying I have any convictions on my reads was that, if you look at what's been going on throughout the game, I've arguably lead three out of the four major wagons yesterday (MNS was definitely mine, yours too, and Harlii's is debatable). I get that I'm really wishy-washy today but that's because I legitimately have no idea what I want now that I lost a major read of mine and got screwed over with another read.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

hey guys just popping in to say that i'm pretty deep into this town!RC wallcase

As for what Kraska has written... (mostly in response to 783)

Taking a look at my wagon spreadsheet (I can link it to anyone interested), the Racer "wagon" was really only House's thing (and mine). so I'm not too sure I agree that Racer is lynchbait. Harlii hopped on it towards the end but I think if he stayed in the game he would have gotten off of it. I think the deaths happened the way they did for entirely different reasons I'm not ready to discuss until our friend Kaori answers 683 (and 724) for me.

And, kraska, if you believe Racer is lynch bait, then what are your reads on Harlii/Fiddler and me? Based on process of elimination, if Racer, RC, and DP are town, then either me or fiddler have to be KM's scumbuddy from your PoV.

I suppose that at the moment I, too, would be opposed to a Racer lynch because there's not enough to really push a wagon but I still scumread him over Fiddler.

Fixed -IV

[gigabyteTroubadour]

@Mod, it looks like my link to post #724 broke! Mind fixing it? Thanks!

and also thank you so much kraska for 782

Fixed -IV

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Wallcase: RC is Town

RC's entrance definitely put a lot of attention on him. Saying that his vote was non-rvs (and the second vote on someone) showed that it came from reading an actually scummy action. This is not alignment indicative, mind you.

What did make me think RC is town from that beginning, though, is that he went after Foedufafa (an OMGUS, technically). I know House townread this based off of meta, but I think that a scum player would have approached this differently.

Let's put ourselves in scum!RC's shoes. So, you join a game, and you see House, an experienced townie, being overly defensive about a seemingly-RVS vote. He already has a vote on him, and he's being fairly scummy, so this looks like a good wagon to start pushing.

House defends himself by pointing out how naked votes are anti-town, and, since you are scum, you want to throw doubt at him by pointing out how you dislike his belief that anti-town = scum. (I still don't think this was the correct interpretation of post 36 but w/e)

But here's where things start to get weird. Foe votes for you, which is incredibly frustrating because the wagon you're pushing isn't working. You're busy in real life, so you can't really defend yourself and promise elaboration after your V/LA. House then says that he plays his IC games differently than normal (he didn't directly say this, but he meant that he wants to set a good example and thus cares about town acting anti-town).

Scumarcee now has a few options:

• A: Keep going after House, since you know you can defend yourself against his accusations.
  
  B: Unvote House and say that you will wait until after your V/LA to make a better decision.
  
  C: Go after an entirely different person.

The only newbie games I've read from RC are 1711 and 1693 (both of which were town games). I think I have somewhat of a sense of his personality, and from that I'm under the assumption that he would not want to go with option B. I should note that, in my opinion, option B might have been the best choice for a scum RC to make because, as I see it, RC has (and had) very little credibility throughout this game. Option B might have helped RC salvage that lost credibility, even if he went back to accusing House.

So that leaves A and C. C would make a scum!RC even less credible, which effectively strips him of any power to push wagons. A shows conviction to a belief, even if it's not one the Town agrees with, which leads to some chance of building credibility in the future.

The thing is, RC went with what is probably the worst option for scum! From just that early game interaction, trying to apply a scum motivation onto RC just does not compute. RC is a good scumplayer and I'm sure he knows how to make strange plays effectively, which is why I believe House expected a scum!RC to go with option A, and I think anyone familiar with RC would expect it too.

In summary, bringing a lot of attention and drama to his entrance is definitely a move most scum would shy away from, but I'm sure a scum!RC would have made the same sort of entrance. What makes the interaction seem town is that RC does not care about saving face and instead adapts his reads, which shows that his interests lie not in hiding but seeking scum.

Now, gaining credibility and pushing for mislynches is of course not the only scum strategy, and it's definitely not the best. The thing is, there's not much else to point to from RC's activity that, with a scum mindset in mind, also doesn't suggest a scumbuddy in DP (namely RC's V/LA pausing for him to ask people to get off the DP wagon for no clear reason (which is fine, RC, it was your opinion and you had a right to express it) and then starting a new wagon on someone I'm fairly sure is town, and also staging a very convincing TvT fight to breed apathy and lower the pool of lynch targets).

So, in a nutshell: If you're going to scumread RC, scumread DP too. The issue with that is that they're both town.

And, Kaori, big question I have to ask: Why aren't you townreading Kraska?

[gigabyteTroubadour]

and I think the failed case vs. foe shows a willingness to actually scumhunt, i don't think scum!RC would want to write a wallcase on something he knew was wrong. Like I said, I don't think RC had much credibility during the day because his opinion usually was different from that of the town, so it's not like a scum!RC would expect people to listen to his wallcase.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I appreciate the wallcase, I just have to ask why was the day before a different scenario, with people calling RCs non rvs vote scummy, and him not giving off any interactions
. wallcases can be made by town or scum. Mot alignment indicative. What will be alignment indicative is if RC has a tendency to do more in which alignment, which needs a meta check.

i'm not really sure what you're asking in your first question?

And I definitely do agree with you about wallcases, it's just that I don't think it would have been the right move for a scum!RC to make unless Racer is scum!RC's scumbuddy, since we were pretty ready to lynch him until he presented his case.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Why was he being townread after the nullread yesterday

oh like real life yesterday (really two days ago)

He was a nulltownread. I choose to keep him at nulltown because there's still the issue of a lack of activity, but I'm sure that in in-game today he will make up for it and strengthen my read (or completely undermine it, who knows). Unless I can see clear town or scum motivation from only a few posts (like I felt I was able to with Racer, but since it's been a week I'm feeling less confident), people with low activity are inherently going to be nullreads.

The exception here is still you (in terms of nullreads) because I really do not know what to make of you. I'm leaning town but I can't give my reasons, as I have stated earlier.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

so the point is my read hasn't really changed, it's just that i wrote a wallcase on a nulltown read

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Posting a pretty contentless prod dodge because there's not really much I can add without any movement from this game, and with the site going down it's been two days since I last posted...

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Ah, yes, the loop I've been waiting to be thrown into all game.

If I somehow cannot post anything beyond this one line: If we're lynching

anyone

on the ai_shuuu wagon, it's DP.

---

I don't really see how Kraska's 240 is bs. The timing of MNS's vote was bad, post #18 is normally fine for an RVS vote but it was placed on the wrong person and with no clear indication of a motive. That's what made it suspicious. Not enough for a full-on scumread, of course, but Kraska did say that she was exaggerating her read on MNS in order to pressure him (it was not until KM appeared that it became a full-on lynch-vote). I can see town-motivated reasons to do that, and Kraska was pretty much committed to pressuring that one slot for the whole day.

So, if you're going to scumread Kraska, I have to ask – why would she pick MNS as her mislynch and not change it when no one else joined her? There was a perfectly fine mis (assuming that DP/Kraska is the scumteam) lynch in Harlii that started pretty shortly after that.

Personally, I dislike makesnosense's vote because House didn't even get the chance to clarify that he made a RVS vote that was tangential to Harlii's.

A reason would have been nice, but during RVS I'd be willing to let a move like that slide

if

he had voted for literally anyone other than House. Without a joke reason, I'd be incredibly skeptical of MNS if it tried to say it was an RVS vote.

^ This post still sums up my thoughts on the whole thing.

---

I do like your thoughts on scum!DP but as I have iterated on multiple instances, I'm still trying to sort something out and I need Kaori's input before I can ultimately make a decision. I know focusing on nighttime events isn't usually good play but my thought process is literally at an impasse because I can't ask the questions I actually need to ask.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

One, I find it incredibly odd that you, Giga, dont think both scum could have been on the wagon i pushed.

The only person on the ai_shuuu wagon I've scumread at any point of the game is you, and it's such a null read that I don't feel ready to push it yet...

Just because ai_shuuu was a townflip doesn't mean I feel I have to scumread one of the people on the wagon. My gut tells me that scum took a hands-free approach to Foe's wagon because really Town needed House and I to get onboard since we both have stated intent to jump on, and then someone else to hammer after reading RC's wallcase. There wasn't really a need for scum to get people interested in the wagon, it was pretty much already there.

Out of all of the major wagons on day 1 (DP, Harlii, Foe), I think the scummiest was Harlii's. Again, this is mostly gut, but it is notable that the Harlii wagon essentially consisted of the same people as the Foe wagon (RC, me, House, DP, Racer). The only notable difference is that Racer was there instead of Kraska (and that RC got off as soon as DP voted, hence no hammer). I don't see that as a reason to say that Racer/Lycan is a scumslot because of my gut, though, I still want to look into the exact posts around the wagons and haven't really.

Also probably sometime soon I'm going to do yet another ISO dive of Kaori. Don't know if I'll write a wallcase (seems redundant with Kraska's, no?) but I definitely want to see where Kaori's "obvtowniness" comes from.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I think you underestimate the possibility of scum lynching ai_shuu, Im sure we have 1 guy on it as scum, and 1 guy who stayed off the wagon

who do you think it is?? like I get Racer saying it'd be you and kraska, but I have no clue who you'd answer...

[gigabyteTroubadour]

i called lycan racer and for that i am sorry

[gigabyteTroubadour]

tbqh kraska i am actually very much enjoying your prescence here at MS MafiaScum

^ not that my townread of you is because of that but still

Still the fact that Kaori hasn't answered my questions is kinda delaying my ability to be more active. And on that note, Kraska, I remember going through your ISO and saw that I missed some questions from you that I thought I answered? Maybe I just assumed the answers were implicit or smth, idk. Anyway if you want me to go back and answer them I'd be glad to, I'm just asking because they were from D1 and idk if you still need answers about me.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I would seriously give you so much towncred if you hammer right now.

You just done even know.

hey

@lycan and kaori

why do you think House felt this way about Kraska?

[gigabyteTroubadour]

What about Racer/Kaori?

This is what I'm thinking, but I feel bad lynching people who just replaced in without some defense on their part.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

One, I find it incredibly odd that you, Giga, dont think both scum could have been on the wagon i pushed.

ok like i've already responded to this but it's still ???

why is it incredibly odd? My two consistent scumreads are off of the wagon, and my three strongest and most consistent townreads were on it... I feel like for some reason you want me to scumread you but that makes zero sense.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

VOTE: Dr Pepper

This vote is going back down for now though.

do you mind giving a readslist? Don't really worry about reasoning, it's just I don't know the order you scumread Racer/Kaori/DP, or who you're townreading? I'm OK if you want to wait but it's still bothering me a little.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Since I didn't think I'd get much out of RC as a player I had to go by motive. Forget town!RC, would a townie think this?

Kraska, if you keep ignoring my posts, I'm going to suspect you have a fake agenda.

Idk, Lycan, someone else besides RC and Harlii seemed to dislike that set of posts, and they're confirmed town...

---

Although, I am starting to feel a bit shakier about town!RC. Lycan, you were in 1717, which was running concurrently with our game's day 1. Why was RC much more active in that game than he is here if he was also busy? I also do think it's weird that as DP said, RC hasn't utilized the three-day truce. This isn't enough for me to change my read, but it's just making me uneasy that RC isn't doing anything too helpful when he posts now. I really would like more content from him.

As for where I stand, it's either Kaori/Lycan or DP/RC from my PoV. I still mostly nulltownread the latter two scumteam, so it's mostly in my head if I can disprove DP's claim. For some reason my gut wants to townread Lycan but it really doesn't make much sense, which is also throwing me off. This game is hella weird and I swear to god I'm not this waffly most of the time.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Koari, ignore my questions from before, I felt I asked them with too much confbias in mind, that they kinda sucked, and that they lack relevancy now. If you feel differently though it can't hurt to answer them, yeah?

Here's a buttload of different questions though.

• Since it's part of your playstyle to find townies and now that House is conftown: What do you now make of the interactions between House and Racer? You had them as a possible scumteam, so previously I would assume you interpreted it as SvS. Has your read changed?
  
  I skimmed through a good portion of your (not that) recent newbie games and I really hate the fact that you, and
  very specifically
  you, brought your own meta into this game. Thoughts?
  
  Who did you expect to be the nightkill and why? (yes this is the same question i kept spamming)
  
  Are you able to explain some of the crypticness between you and DP from D1? I'm referring to #433's post-edit and #483.
  
  Assume Kraska dropped dead right now and flipped town. Who is the scumteam from your PoV?
  
  Assume RC dropped dead right now and flipped town. Who is the scumteam from your PoV?
  
  This is asking Kaori as a player, not the slot: Why do you typically not vote? Again, reading through your recentish newbie games, you almost never vote regardless of your alignment. It's just an interesting playstyle and I'd like to know what the logistics behind it is.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

ok js i take back what i was saying about feeling uneasy about town!RC, I just reread the last few pages and I think I'm still OK with it.

But I do want a lot more content from him, that sentiment is the same.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

citing house when he's unclear what he was referring too is awfully lazy. if i want a confirmed townies' opinion why don't you give me yours? or is there a problem with that question?

House was referring to the same set of posts RC didn't like. I think it's clear what he's talking about, I can lay this out better if you would like me to. Since you asked, I kind of felt weird about them (the posts) too, I felt Kraska was misrepping House at the time. Now I can see more town motivation from them and I like them, but that's in retrospect and because I have a stronger read on Kraska.

And, RC, I know it's pretty tangential but it's really bothering me: Did your read on me change from D1, if so, when and why?

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I am pretty sure that you're town.

OK, thanks.

It was just really weird to be your top scumread for a long time but never getting pressured :/

[gigabyteTroubadour]

fake. do you want to know how I knew that you were scum?

i mean i do, at least humor DP at this point because i'm actually considering requesting a double replacement for you both even though that will mean every slot but mine replaces out. I don't really care if there is a "right" side or a "wrong" side to this fight, I think it's hurting everyone and I see a double replacement as the only fair option. Don't replace if you guys think you can try to put this beside you though, I really want Lycan to be the last replacement.

Kraska and Fiddler, I'm feeling that there actually is scum within {Lycan, Kaori, DP} (in that order). I want to actually make sure their lynch goes through, so the two of you should try to work with me on agreeing with one of them. I'm not open to policy-ing RC but if you want both of the fighting players out we should replace RC and lynch DP. I'm putting a lot of trust into you two because I'm like 100% certain I'm going to be the nightkill.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

i also don't think DP is acting, but maybe i'm inexperienced when it comes to tonal reading

[gigabyteTroubadour]

wait what the fuck we have four days to go??

[gigabyteTroubadour]

If this were the {Cop, Doctor, Roleblocker} set up, would it be better to kill or roleblock an obvious cop? Why?

That's the question I was trying to lead up to with the nightkill questions. Depending on the answers, I was going to try to figure out whether House was killed for being townread and a threat, or if the scumteam was PR fishing. I guess I need to be more direct with this.

If I can prove there is a roleblocker (I'm pretty sure it's Kaori based on interactions between Kaori and Lycan), then that means I can prove DP is town. If there is no reason to believe there is a roleblocker, then DP needs to be autolynched right now. Lycan is probably scum regardless, but I also really think DP and RC are the same alignment. The point is if we get a correct lynch today, then we've pretty much won the game because a correct lynch means we have room for error.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Also did anyone besides RC, Kaori, and I pick up on House being a diagonal PR?

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Also can anyone scumreading RC explain to me why he would back off from the Harlii wagon? That was an entirely possible lynch (Racer was ready to hammer!), there was no need to stop it.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I am tentatively willing to vote Kaori because I don't see how we lose after a Kaori lynch but if he flips town like I think he will you are voting DP, no questions.

Yes, this is what I am suggesting by insisting that he's the roleblocker. I would lynch DP first but it's

possible

he's telling the truth from my PoV. I will read the ISO you sent me and see if it changes my view on this first.

Could you answer my question about roleblocking, though? I am willing to believe that DP is scum, but I really want to be confident about lynching him first. I need a flip from Kaori (or at least some communication at this point) first before I'm certain DP is scum, but if the way the NK went disproves any possibility of a roleblocker then I'm lynching DP no questions asked.

Really it's between DP and Kaori, while Lycan is confirmed scum imo.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Actually I'm more willing to lynch DP now. This might be confbias talking but the ISO you sent me was just not

as

convincing as DP's AtE but I see where you're coming from. I admit that I'm a sucker for such tactics though, I suppose it's because my Myers-Briggs personality type is INFP (I feel DP is one too and since a lot of my scumhunting involves putting myself in the position of other players the fact I might act similarly might have something to do with that :/).

Kraska and Fiddler, whether we lynch DP or Kaori is up to you two. I'm willing to hear a case for going after Lycan first, but we might as well give ourselves an easy lylo.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

just fyi DP the current nightkill looks bad for you

so if you can explain why House would be killed and not roleblocked, that would be great!!

[gigabyteTroubadour]

wait holy shit i'm sorry for waffling but Kaori is town

Hear me out:

Why would a scum Kaori want to expose a PR? Remember the crypticness I complained about earlier? Kaori wanted to know if the other players wanted to see if House was an obvious PR. There's literally no reason scum would want that.

UNVOTE: Kaori "Notty" Miyazono

I might go back to him if it's a green flip from Pepper. But js I want to hammer, hence no vote from me.

Fixed -IV

[gigabyteTroubadour]

@Mod, I messed up my unvote tag, mind changing it?

Done -IV

[gigabyteTroubadour]

The point is Kaori got off of House for a reason. He's probably town.

Readlist because I better be the night kill:

{Me}
{Kraska}
{RC, Fiddler}
{Kaori}
{DP}
{Lycan}

[gigabyteTroubadour]

just fyi DP the current nightkill looks bad for you

so if you can explain why House would be killed and not roleblocked, that would be great!!

DP, can you answer this? RC too.

And why don't you think Fiddler is town?

[gigabyteTroubadour]

and tbh i feel like i'm the one being discredited here

my reads are coming organically, I don't need RC to tell me you're scummy.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Also dead PRs are more important than blocked PRs for scum. If scum thought he was PR, its easier to just kill the guy

The thing is, if there's a Cop and Doctor and your cop is incredibly obvious, killing

isn't

that safe of a move. Scum either took a ballsy move (Unknown doc could have protected obvcop House) or there simply isn't a roleblocker.

And if Harlii's slot is scum with RC, it doesn't make sense. Why would RC so suddenly push for a bus? If he wanted to cast blame on his scumbuddy the way he did, why didn't he do the reverse of his plan (lynch giga, with a red flip we lynch Harlii no questions asked)? Let's break this down.

TvT or T!RC v S!Fiddler: Everything can be taken at face value.

S!RC v T!Fiddler: Pointless waste of a mislynch.

S!Rc v S!Fiddler: Poorly planned bus

Fiddler's alignment is irrelevant. It's a weirdass move no matter what.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

If this were the {Cop, Doctor, Roleblocker} set up, would it be better to kill or roleblock an obvious cop? Why?

rc answer it phrased this way

[gigabyteTroubadour]

But it's interesting to see

the fire he puts into responding to someone suspecting him rather than finding someone

. It reads as defensive, and you yourself mentioned you can understand why he would be defensive!

Who in this game has the most to gain by playing so vehemently defensive?

And in no universe ever does notty/Kaori ask this question with any amount of sincerity.

Oh, fuck.

I do not want to be lynched until I can confirm DP has seen something so it can be questioned at a later time. (DP, please let me know if you see

what House is alluding to that all experienced players should see.

)

If House is not scum,

it is RC.

UNVOTE:

I realize what I missed. I'm going to be mislynched, but I'm not really going to fight it anymore. My main goal is to make sure DP sees what I see.

I don't want it openly discussed

, I just want a simple yes/no.

Because if you are scum- it's just an attempt to abate the wagon on you, and

you kill RC, that means it never comes into question again.

It's a failsafe to make sure it can be discussed later.

Why did Kaori suddenly stop going after House? It's because of the thing that "all experienced players should have picked up": House was playing an incredibly obvious PR game! Also, Kaori strongly townread DP, which is why he put so much emphasis on DP knowing rather than both DP and RC knowing. Thing is, that may have made everything worse for town... But scum have no need to make sure anyone sees this, they can just coach their scumbuddy in the PT.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I caught onto the exchange too, but the problem was that it was made while a Kaori lynch was on the table. Meaning, no night talk.

Oh, true... But that just makes a Lycan/Kaori scumteam seem possible still

I agree that a Kaori/DP scumteam is incredibly stupid, their interactions really read SvT to me, mostly through gut.

Fiddler/DP is

buyable

but...?? After the ai_shuuu flip I'm really not inclined to scumread fiddler and Harlii for their play. Their scumreads made sense at the time but after the mislynch I feel that we're overthinking it now. I understand why Kraska is scumreading him though and she's pretty much the only person I'm OK with feeling that way (personal experience and all that).

also newbie 1718, like the united states, was never great to begin with

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Hmm... Thoughts on a Fiddler/Lycan/Kraska/Kaori/RC LYLO? Assuming that this is, in fact, a LYLO...

I just dunno, I feel like we should keep a town!DP around for LYLO because we have an unkillable conftownie. But it just doesn't seem likely.

My responsibility here though is to hammer DP/Lycan/Kaori, though, so I'll definitely have my mind made up then.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

RC, do you think it's correct to believe that if there were a roleblocker, House would have been roleblocked and someone else (presumably you, or me if you're scum) would have died?

I can go through and explain why I'm convinced the nightkill and set up are really closely related.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I'm suddenly more willing to believe DP is town solely because Lycan is the only scumbuddy that makes sense. Assuming I'm confirmed town in everyone else's PoV (no one scumreads me, so...?), these are all of the possible scumbuddies of DP:

Fiddler and Kaori make the least sense out of everyone. Makesnosense was literally the first person to vote for DP. There was nothing at stake that required bussing your partner, so why do it? Harlii gave very weak reasoning to join the wagon, why potentially risk losing your scumbuddy day 1 so early into the day? Both were newbies though so I

suppose

them assuming "Oh, I'll get easy towncred" could be a motivation, but it's just such a pointless risk I really have to wonder if they would do that.

Kraska doesn't really have any interesting associatives with DP. She joined too late in the game to be a part of his wagon, but going through her ISO her reads on him seem pretty organic. The two had very weak interactions (Kraska's DP read has changed multiple times and there was also the Kaori discussion, that's really about it), so I'm not sure what to make of that. I will say that reading Kraska's ISO pretty much strengthened my townread on her, her thought process is really clear and logical and I feel that out of the 7 living players she's the only one that can really have someone say that about them.

I know this was Lycan's red-herring scumteam but I have to wonder with recent events if he's going back here.

RC as DP's scumbuddy initially made sense, as double bussing as they did could have easily been planned, and the fight they did was very convincingly TvT. My hesitation about calling this the scumteam is A: the fact I townread RC, and B: the second time RC and DP fought, both sides seemed very sincere in how they felt. I'm not really sure to call it SvS, maybe TvT or TvS.

Lycan is the only person left. In terms of Racer and DP, Racer gave a very sketchy readslist in post 68 that put DP as null for very little reason. He said that he agreed with Harlii's dislike of RC, but for some reason disagreed with his read on DP. If you think one player is scummy, why are you not scumreading the person who buddied him under false premises? There's more that's scummy with that one post but I would save it for a case against Lycan's slot, not for pointing out DP associatives. Lycan is also the only player who can really "bus" DP, as if DP is truly scum then he's pretty much indefensible at this point. I am interested in how I feel that Lycan has been pushing for RC/Kraska more than RC/DP, though...

---

At this point, it's either Lycan/Kaori or Lycan/DP from my PoV. Still intending to hammer which wagon gets going first.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Fiddler or RC, vote Lycan when you're back, we might as well go for the safest option here. If DP or Kaori disagree though I would like to know.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Fine. I still intend to hammer.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Harlii was obv noob town

So Harlii's slot is no longer obv town? I suppose I can see why, but does the fact that town is ready to lynch your scumbuddy have anything to do with it ?

In all seriousness though, I suppose I am more willing to consider Fiddler as DP's scumbuddy, but that's about it. I'm going to look through Harlii's ISO and his posts in context and see if that opinion strengthens. So far, though, it seems to me that Harlii had enough reasoning to go on the wagon in

his

mind. The actual logic might not make sense, but the internal did, and really that's enough to motivate a townie to sheep someone. I'll get back to Town tomorrow at the latest on this one.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Lycan, this isn't really a question to gauge alignment or anything, but did you happen to know Foe's and House's alignments during your first read-through of the game?

[gigabyteTroubadour]

It's OK Kraska!

Now that DP's slot is no longer DP, I suppose RC is more willing to consider a Lycan lynch?

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I think I can live with a DP lynch first tbh

DP (if green flip) > Lycan > Kaori

DP (if red flip) > Lycan > Fiddler

I will gladly stuff my face in humble pie if this these are not winning lynch orders.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Fiddler idk ur posting schedule but you should put Lycan at L-1 unless you have any objections

same to Kaori if he decides to pop in, but he should ISO me and look for the questions i asked him tbh :/

[gigabyteTroubadour]

So did you find out what you wanted to know giga?

There are a lot of things I want to know still, so probably not. That's why I'm putting myself in a position to hammer, because I trust myself to hammer at the best possible time. As soon as Fiddler gets on your wagon, any vote on you is immediately scummy, a DP-slot's quick-hammer or a self-hammer might as well prove you're flipping red. I doubt Kaori is logging on anytime soon, but my gut says he wouldn't be eager to vote you regardless of alignment.

The nightkill and your flip will determine whether to go for RC/Kraska or DP/Fiddler if you're town, or if Kaori or DP eats rope first if you're scum. LYLO will be a risk no matter who survives, but it's one this town has the information to work through.

If Fiddler doesn't write a case for you when they vote, I will gladly do so before I hammer. I want the wagon we go through to go as cleanly as possible.

---

Why the change in vote, RC? Both wagons are good but what made you change your mind?

[gigabyteTroubadour]

the dp slot qh'ing proving YOU'RE red is a misphrase

the dp slot qh'ing is incredibly scummy and makes them an easy solution to lylo, sorry. (can't see a qh'ing done as a bus in matrix6, hence why i specifically said lylo)

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Yeah I'm actually a bit more hesitant on my scumrread on DP for the same reasons as Kraska. It seems like legitimate frustration.

But at the same time, I'm confident that we can win no matter what with a DP lynch. Unless there's a non-RC/Kraska scumteam that can win with the lynch plan I listed above, it's as good of an option as any.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

also i'm sheeping nobody

My reads are my reads. My votes are my votes.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

VOTE: LycanFire

I trust RC to hammer at this point.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

oh wait lycan is at l-2 nvm :/

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I have really strong opinions about a roleblocker lynch but since you posed this quesiton to RC I'll stay silent for now :S

[gigabyteTroubadour]

RC, thoughts on Kaori/Lycan as a team? Because if there's a roleblocker I think I have a case on Kaori as this game's. Assuming a Lycan/Kaori scumteam, of course.

If Kaori flips town, then DP can't be town imo.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

lycan that is the most bs way of describing those wagons btw

[gigabyteTroubadour]

no it's not, it's JaeReed's, hence why i am in the process of writing one that isn't by obvscum

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I'm still writing the post about the wagons, how long are you going to be on?

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Wagon #1 – Makesnosense

• Voters (chronological order): Giga, House, Harlii, Foe
  
  Starting post: Technically the very first post of the game, but it became a serious wagon at post #20.
  
  Reasoning behind the votes: MNS placed a very suspicious RVS vote on House that appeared opportunistic.
  
  Events: Nothing particularly interesting. Most of the focus while there were votes on MNS was around House, as RC, DP, and MNS all had voted for him for vague reasons. The wagon ended arguably at post 97 because people thought your slot was much scummier.
  
  Notably, Kraska's entrance was asking people why this wagon was abandoned and trying to get it started again.

Wagon #3 (House's is #2 but he's dead) – DoctorPepper

• Voters: MNS, Giga, Foe, Harlii, Intent to hammer from House
  
  Starting post: Post 97, but because I am a narcissist I like to believe that I'm important, so I want to say it's actually post 101 because MNS disappeared from the game like right after this vote, so he can't really push a wagon.
  
  Reasoning behind the votes: DP was misrepping a widely townread player and was misconstruing game events. In retrospect, this is more of a town thing to do anyway.
  
  Notable events: RC speaks against the wagon in post 123 and nakedly votes for MNS. Harlii sheeps RC in 126, but then sheeps House and votes for DP again in 132. Something about 139 pinged me as town and made me super uncomfortable with the lynch. House reprimanded me (kinda justifiably, I could have just said I'm not ready to hammer), but unlike Harlii I stood by my unvote and ended the wagon.

Wagon #4 – Racer64

• Voters: House, Giga
  
  Starting post: 182, but the case was intentionally off for an incredibly elaborate reaction test.
  
  Reasoning behind the votes: Racer presented a very fake-looking readslist (essentially everyone was a scumread for weak and contradictory reasoning). He also defended a nullscumread of his (House) which suggests that he knows that slot is town but is struggling with doublethink. He had little activity besides that, so it was worth trying to pressure that slot to get more out of it.
  
  Notable events: House jumped off of the MNS wagon to vote for Racer earlier in the game, and I also did scumread Racer. I, at first, was not ready to get onto the wagon and pointed out some errors in House's case. House used this to fake a scumread of me and attempt to tunnel me to see if anyone would jump onto my wagon. Alas, no one did.
  
  This is around the time Kraska replaced in. I also started to suspect Harlii for his continuous fence-sitting because of his commentary on House's tunneling.

Wagon #5 – Harlii

• Voters: RC, Giga, House, DP, Racer (after RC unvoted)
  
  Starting post: 261, where RC gives a readlist and theorizes a Harlii/Giga scumteam.
  
  Reasoning behind the votes: Harlii was super neutral and his votes were sheepy and very jumpy.
  
  Notable events: Two votes on Harlii was enough for him to push a case on someone (House, specifically). House drops his vote on me and nakedly joins the wagon. Racer gives intent to L-1 the wagon (???). Kraska criticizes House's naked vote and points out it's inconsistent with his earlier votes. DP joins the wagon, and after that RC gets off and gets scummy feelings from it. Racer joins to take RC's spot. Kraska continues to criticize the wagon voters, pointing out that no one on the wagon has Harlii as their main scumread. Harlii presents a decent readlist in 319 and drops his case on House and moves onto Racer, ending the wagon on Harlii.

Right about now, Kaori replaces MNS.

There's kind of a return to the Racer wagon from Harlii and House, but Kaori now exists. There seems to be a pattern to how obvscum Racer's wagon keeps getting derailed for some reason . I would say that pages 14-16 are worth a read on your own, Kaori's kind of an oddity in this game.

Wagon #6 – Kaori Miyazono

• Voters: Kraska, House, Giga
  
  Starting post: 380, where House gets frustrated by Kaori's walls and finds scum motivation in them.
  
  Reasons for the vote: MNS's slot was already under suspicion, and Kaori's entrance that immediately tries to throw suspicion at House (without a vote, strangely) just made it worse.
  
  Notable events: DP initially did not like Kaori's entrance, yet when it's revealed that notscience is Kaori, he suddenly gut townreads the slot. Ai_shuuu tries to argue with House about his townread of me, but it seems independent from Kaori. House expresses that if Kaori does result in a mislynch that he will be more suspicious of kraska. RC reads Kaori as town for some reason (please just read this wagon it's so fucking weird). Kraska wants the Kaori wagon to get serious, but doesn't want people to vote until DP weighs in on how he reads Kaori. House drops the wagon at 454. Unsurprisingly, Harlii makes a typical "I'm not sure!" kind of comment at the end of the wagon.

After this, everyone struggles with who to come up with as the deadline lynch. I tried to push Racer again, but RC had a convincing case on Ai_shuuu's slot that pulled the attention away.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

ok now on to the good stuff, why i'm convinced that if Kaori is scum, he's a roleblocker (don't expect a wall, there's not that much to it because kaori mostly posted fluff)

[gigabyteTroubadour]

makesnosense [-2] Its vote against House without any initial explanation is rather sus to me. Also the fact that it's barely posted.

RadiantCowbells [-3] Post 41: This really isn't helpful in any way. You say that House is scummy, and that you can't say way, then when Foe calls you out on it, you swing around to a vote against him. You then proceed to insult House for, again, not reason you care to give us.

Realize that MNS and RC are voted for pretty much the same reason: naked votes. Why is it scummier when RC does it than when MNS does it? Sadly, I never considered to think of a Racer/MNS team while Racer was still in the game so I never got to poke at this, but not joining a wagon of someone who you "scumread" while trying to start a wagon on somebody else makes me feel like he was trying to distract everybody from MNS.

* His interaction with RC on Post 42 and Post 44 also shows high level of defensiveness over a mere suspicion on him.

I saw 44 as more attacking than defensiveness. RC wouldn't give an explanation for his vote, and House called him out on it. Besides, RC had already moved to voting for Foe in post 43.

What do you see that makes you think otherwise?

I know this is more about just Lycan/Kaori associatives in general, but still. This interaction felt really forced. MNS's post was directed at Foe and I, why would Racer feel the need to defend his scumread from another scumread?

Racer- Something to note- in his last post, he mentions a post on the last day the scum PT was open. Now, I had no idea what he was talking about as the PTs in this game are night talk only if I remember correctly, so I went back to double check and saw it was left open for a while longer. Do you think as town, someone would have noticed that off the bat?

Kaori gives a

really fucking good reason

that the Racer wagon shouldn't have derailed itself so often. What the hell was that about?? If Kaori is scum, and Lycan is definitely scum, then that means that Kaori was preparing to bus his partner if the need arose, which based on how much pressure there was around both of them, seemed very likely.

Scum-notscience is a survivalist at heart. I will happily cut the cords of my teammates if I have to in order to get the deepest I can in a game. I don't stick my neck out.

In case it wasn't obvious enough scum!Kaori is ready to bus, his given self-meta is consistent with this. Lynching Racer is not at all sticking his neck out.

I will let fiddler catchup but will likely vote Racer for sake of deadline.

You scumread a slot but say you will vote it for deadline

... OK...

What's more interesting about this, though, is that Kaori didn't even bother to fight for a slot he was townreading when he stated intent to vote for a slot he was scumreading. There's literally no town motivation for this.

Kaori is obvtown. Her entrance was scummy.

??? how is kaori obv town?

1) Reads the same scumteam as me
2) Didn't scumread Harlii
3) Wasn't on the Aishuu wagon

these are trash reasons to scumread someone, sorry. if lycan is somehow not scum i really would like to discuss post-game why these are bad reasons to read someone as town

---

Anyway, the point is: Lycan is reading Kaori as obvtown for absolutely no reason. Kaori has stated willingness to bus Lycan but has avoided following through. This, to me, reads as though a scum!Kaori is preparing for an inevitable bus, while Lycan (not even scum!Lycan at this point, sorry) is defending his scumbuddy like crazy hard.

If it's not Lycan/Kaori though fmpov it's probably you and lycan, so Kaori is a pretty good lynch

[gigabyteTroubadour]

also bc my wall buried RC's comment

everyone besides kraska and RC, read and answer 1027 <3

[gigabyteTroubadour]

House's wagon was a little bit after MNS.

Voters: MNS, RC, DP (KNDP, Harlii, and Ai_shuuu all voted for House later but never in a way that seemed like a wagon)

Reasoning for votes: House was being overly defensive seems to be the main reason. DP also wanted to white knight RC for some reason. Ai_shuuu didn't like that House was trying to lynch people (since, you know, at the end of a lynch people usually ask for a claim) and accused him of PR fishing. Harlii felt manipulated during the DP wagon.

Notable events: It was more of a counterwagon that spanned throughout the whole first day, so it's harder to pinpoint events. Foe definitely white-knighted House against RC, but it seemed that Racer also wanted to too? People seemed to vote for House completely independently after it was a wagon, so I feel like KNDP's, Harlii's, and Ai_shuuu's vote on House were all kind of townie because they were such unrealistic lynches.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

also I'm reading the scumteam as you kraska so yes i'm cool with a kaori wagon. whether i want to vote or hammer tho is tbd

[gigabyteTroubadour]

VOTE: Kaori Miyazono

rc's gotta hammer whoever we lynch i think

[gigabyteTroubadour]

how can lycan's slot be town i don't understand this

and tbh i cbf to even defend myself against lycan this game is doomed

[gigabyteTroubadour]

look rc if fiddler hammers and dierfire flips town then we're going straight for jaereed, deal?