Mafia of Revelations ~ Game Over!

[VP Baltar]

One time, on this very site, I watched ABR say something about China and everyone raged at him.

VOTE: Albert B. Rampage

Also, hi Blair! Glad you accepted the invitation!

[VP Baltar]

The Game of Thrones has begun

In this game, you get cute or you die.

(Hi to you as well puppy! Glad you accepted the invite as well)

[VP Baltar]

Glad to be invited!

Are you scum this time though? Be honest

[VP Baltar]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Morning Tweet

[VP Baltar]

Town
Llama
Farside
Porkens
Starbuck

Green Crayons
Blair
Hoopla
CLAP
Reck
UT
iau
MT
Baltar

Agar
Auro
KMD
ABR

The idea is scum feel a need to do something, and being cute is something to do, like a mission. CLAP's version seemed less goal-oriented.

Posts an entire list of reads in basically RVS. "Scum feel a need to do something"

Well here we are!

[VP Baltar]

Why are you voting MT?

Because his posting seems the most contrived.

[VP Baltar]

morning tweet seemed least sincere - or at least, seemed to be opportunistically using the screen of jokes-y cuteness to shield herself from potential early scrutiny.

You gonna get on this wagon with me or....

[VP Baltar]

Is there something that seems insincere about it?

There were like 6 posts on it. Seems very try-hard for a mediocre joke.

We were still in RVS, but I can't imagine being THAT committed to that bit.

[VP Baltar]

I just thought MT was joking. I never took the any of it seriously. I don't even see MT caring on with that thought process as serious.

I never said it was serious... what does that even mean?

you're saying my vote implies I thought MT was serious about the cute alliance?

[VP Baltar]

UNVOTE: MT
VOTE: iamausername

I just spent a game as scum fighting against Blair's instincts to save my team. No one in that game would really follow her and she screamed into the void for many pages. She ended up copping two of them.

Blatant sheep here. Come at me if you don't like it.

[VP Baltar]

exciting times. i must say, what a treat for mafia enthusiasts watching along witnessing such a high level of play

I am VP Baltar, and this...is my Masterclass.

[VP Baltar]

UNVOTE: MT
VOTE: iamausername

I just spent a game as scum fighting against Blair's instincts to save my team. No one in that game would really follow her and she screamed into the void for many pages. She ended up copping two of them.

Blatant sheep here. Come at me if you don't like it.

Why you leave MT?

Eh, still felt like a bit of a forced interaction on her part, but maybe that's how she actually is.

I decided I'll just stan Blair instead.

Can I lure you guys into theory talk about how scum have higher cognitive load and don't recognize jokes easily

"Me scum. You no funny"

You mean like that?

Your no lynch suggestion was hella dumb and I would've voted you for it because it was hella dumb, but I don't think it was particularly AI given that it was a early (first?) D1 post.

You were actually going to vote over that?

[VP Baltar]

I dont even start reading the game until page 25 these days.

Explain to me what's going on and I'll give you my opinion on it.

town heroine hoopla dazzled onlookers with a stunning moment of divine intuition, powering the wagon on GC-scum.

in response, shady antihero blair rustled up an uninspired counterwagon on lurking easy-target iamausername. her motivations? god knows.

You didn't explain anything and I still need to be explained gc and iamuser if you want my vote

You're on a wagon with MT. Is that a better explanation?

[VP Baltar]

Well the IAAU one is simple. There are two posts there and his vote is the kind of minor inconsistency scum go for.
GC has a more developed ISO of different stuff, but most recently 305 calls a bunch of people suspicious and disappointing without really doing anything.

We caught two scum in the first 10 pages? Well that was easy!

I'm kind of surprised Reck and Puppy are such wallpaper this game. Not really what I was expecting from either

[VP Baltar]

On-wagon: Could be VP Baltar. He felt the need to over explain why he was sheeping me. Could denote self consciousness.

I stan you and this is your response! rude af

unvote

Agree with VP + IAAU (I think if it's not GC, those two + Reck + Auro is best)

I got to say, I find this fringing on the point of silly and distracting.

Well the IAAU one is simple. There are two posts there and his vote is the kind of minor inconsistency scum go for.
GC has a more developed ISO of different stuff, but most recently 305 calls a bunch of people suspicious and disappointing without really doing anything.

We caught two scum in the first 10 pages? Well that was easy!

I'm kind of surprised Reck and Puppy are such wallpaper this game. Not really what I was expecting from either

im lurking, mafia philosophy is kinda boring and i don't feel like inventing some strong takes so i can effortpost with the big boys

^Town response.

I didn't create any sort of "empty calorie" discussion. The fact that you are assuming my motives without talking to me makes you look like an ass, not me.

not sure how you could see this as a personal sleight (that I'm somehow calling you an ass?), so inclined to think this is manufactured

This fight does strike me as odd.

Starbuck, do you find GC scummy or just irritating?

i'll have you know some wallpaper is fucking beautiful

If i could put a face with a wall, it would be yours <3

UNVOTE:

huh? explain.

[VP Baltar]

huh? explain.

I gut-townread Green Crayons from his posts.

You're gonna have to do better than that.

[VP Baltar]

Do you want to talk about any of my other reads I've given reasons for?

VOTE: auro

No. I would think you could actually give even a minor detail about what in your "gut" read pinged for you. I don't like the hand waving when asked a pretty simple question.

[VP Baltar]

I don't think Crayons is particularly town that his wagon needs to dissolve; I prefer it over Starbuck's, but VP is also a good choice if Auro pressed an innocent child button.

Just to be clear, you believe I'm scum who has tried to bus two partners in less than 20 pages on D1?

[VP Baltar]

Baa, baa.

Black sheep...why are you voting me?

Other than it being the only viable alternative to your own wagon at the moment of course.

[VP Baltar]

Daddy's home from work everyone.

Looks like the scum goofed and tried to start a wagon on me while I was away. This should be good.

[VP Baltar]

Ok, so I think the most useful approach here is probably looking at the folks on this wagon and their reasoning, because there has to be some artificial inflation here in this group (aka, the bad ones, aka, those whose names shall not be spoken, aka SCUM).

First, ABR:

Spoiler:

He votes me here:

Well the IAAU one is simple. There are two posts there and his vote is the kind of minor inconsistency scum go for.
GC has a more developed ISO of different stuff, but most recently 305 calls a bunch of people suspicious and disappointing without really doing anything.

We caught two scum in the first 10 pages? Well that was easy!

I'm kind of surprised Reck and Puppy are such wallpaper this game. Not really what I was expecting from either

This is moderately scummy.

VOTE: VP Baltar

Votes me in a classically ABR way, so not really alignment indicative of anything. Unclear whether the "this" in that sentence refers to making a sarcastic remark about llama's inane full solve posts or me nudging Reck and Puppy on their inactivity and seeing how they reacted. Neither is a good reason for voting, but eh.

What I do think is important about the ABR vote is that it comes right after I point out he has a useless vote camped on Blair.

I dont even start reading the game until page 25 these days.

Explain to me what's going on and I'll give you my opinion on it.

town heroine hoopla dazzled onlookers with a stunning moment of divine intuition, powering the wagon on GC-scum.

in response, shady antihero blair rustled up an uninspired counterwagon on lurking easy-target iamausername. her motivations? god knows.

You didn't explain anything and I still need to be explained gc and iamuser if you want my vote

You're on a wagon with MT. Is that a better explanation?

Back in the day when I played with ABR, we didn't really have a name for his style. Nowadays, I would probably call it Trumping. He's eager to attack before being attacked. And then it's just a matter of repeating the idea enough that people begin to believe it. I'm not sure if this really says a lot about his alignment at this point because it's a useful psychological strategy from either approach. He goes on to encourage a wagon race between me and Auro...which again could be a valuable strategy from either alignment. Forcing people to take sides in a run off can sort scum. But it's also a strategy I've used as scum very frequently when I'm happy with the targets and I think it will generate a mislynch or some type of useful claim. You don't get dirty by trying to explain yourself, while still being able to nudge the day where you want it to go.

Overall, don't have strong feelings about ABR's vote and pressure either way.

I'm going to skip over IIAU for now. He was technically second on my wagon, then hopped off and seems to have hopped back on. I'll address him based on his current wagon position.

Next vote on me is Hoopla:

Spoiler:

doot -de-do

VOTE: VP Baltar

That's it! Don't really have anything to say about it. That's her only mention of me all game. Generally I've been reading Hoops as town, so I kind of just assume this was a "let's see where this goes" kind of vote.

Now is when things start to get more interesting. Auro's vote and then quick abandonment is a HUGE scumtell. I was a mildly up and coming wagon and he saw that as he was facing pressure. His reason for voting me was "gut" townread on Green Crayons, whose wagon happened to be waning. I took time to give him an opportunity to explain something I was missing there, but clearly my initial twinge was right, hence the vote. That much should have been quite obvious to anyone mildly looking at that interaction (an important point later when we get to the squad saying 'VPB hasn't done anything town yet this game!' ~ which is completely "give me a break" territory given the folks saying it.)

Which brings us to IIAU:

Spoiler:

UNVOTE: Auro
VOTE: VP Baltar

lost my taste for the Auro wagon right around this post.

in other news, AGar has now thoroughly ingratiated himself into my town reads - can't imagine this post coming from scum - there are clear benefits for scum to not alerting everyone to the source of the misunderstanding, pretty much regardless of Blair/Starbuck alignments.

His reason for voting me....is that I voted Auro! Yikes, ok. Keep in mind, he deduced this by looking at his own wagon, shrugging heavily because he had done nothing in the game and saying I must be the scum. Quoting here for reference:

this is fair. i have really not got in the game yet, and my Hoopla vote was a pretty crappy vote. i had yet to find anything notably scummy to latch on to at that point, people started voting Hoopla, who i had yet to find notably town, so i joined in and pushed at a seeming contradiction that i expected Hoopla to have a perfectly valid explanation for, which she did.

Blair's insistence on browbeating people into voting me over Green Crayons feels fairly town. i have no idea why people are voting GC, so pushing something other than that seems correct. the way farside and KMD joined the wagon also seems reasonable. if scum have jumped onto me, and i expect there's a good chance that one would have done by now, VP Baltar is the most likely candidate.

so i guess
UNVOTE: Hoopla
VOTE: VP Baltar

people that feel townish:
2) Albert B. Rampage
4) Blair
6) farside22
7) Green Crayons
8) Hoopla
10) Kmd4390
11) Llamarble
12) Morning Tweet
13) Porkens
14) Starbuck

people who have yet to feel townish:
1) AGar
3) Auro
5) CantLynchAPuppy
15) Untrod Tripod
16) VP Baltar
17) xRECKONERx

there's only two spots left in the town bunker, better step up your game, folks

Keep in mind, there were four people voting him at the time. This is weak sauce reasoning and makes no sense as basis for a vote, let alone to come in later and say an Auro wagon is a bad wagon because I voted on it. What I see here is incredibly lazy scum hunting. And a scum pool referenced above that's just broad enough to end in a mislynch without much trouble D1.

Needless to say an IIAU-Auro scum pairing is something Llama and I can agree on.

Next up is UT:

Here is the reasoning for the vote (actual vote is in a follow up post that doesn't say much)

Spoiler:

Regarding VP, I think his post history is really wallflower-y. A little commenting, a little asking directionless questions, and a whole lot of not really taking a stance on anything. I like this slot for scum.

Which stinks, honestly. Perhaps I could squint and see where this is coming from. I've intentionally not been pushing super hard today, mostly because I think there are a lot of strong personalities in this game -- and that's already led to a absurdly bloated page count. (Some players have spent pages debating the Blair/Starbuck fight when it is pretty clear they could both be town overreacting in that scenario.) So my approach has been a little more lay back in the cut and pounce when I see things worth pushing. That'd be a fair assessment.

HOWEVER, I have actually done things to move this game in the right direction when the moment has called for it. Now, compare that to UT, whose previous post to the above attack on me was this:

I'm having a hard time finding anything to focus on in this game. Can someone offer me some direction in terms of post to read that are especially scummy (inb4 this post). I want to contribute but every time I start reading my eyes cross and I lose consciousness. I just don't even really know where to start

To call me a wallflower is little more than a ginned up reason to join my wagon when I would argue that people who have also been more laid back in this game include:

Reckoner
Starbuck
kmd
Puppy
Blair
IIAU
oh, and UT

Much like IIAU, this is absurd reasoning to join an easy wagon that's not seeing any resistance. I don't read UT as likely scum as much as Auro or IIAU because him openly saying he's not focusing this game could come from a town place. Llama pointed him in my direction I believe, so again, could just be laziness on UT's part. But that mischaracterization certainly raised my hackles and I'd like to see UT put in more effort.

This is still a gem either way:

how in the fuck am I sheeping

Shit reasoning, sheeping...what's the difference?

Last, we have Farside:

Spoiler:

Her vote is here:

Okay so on the ISO of VP I found him to basically just sheep reads and have no follow through with pushing any reads. I don't even know why he voted Auro at this point and he pushed MT and dropped it, which looks for pretty freeking weak reasons.

VOTE: VPB

Completed my iso so I feel better with some reads.
Null to scum:
Agar
UT
Kmd
Auro
Iam
CLP
MT
VPB

I literally said I was sheeping Blair, so that's a weak accusation. A few other people have mentioned it, so it is probably worth addressing. I just finished a game with Blair and Puppy immediately before this (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=83054). In fact, I was the one who asked Vi to invite them to this game because they're great. I blatantly sheeped Blair there to gauge her reaction and try to get a better read on her. I think she's an outstanding town player from what I've seen, so getting a solid read there early in the game was important to me.

As I said above, my Auro vote was actually quite clear to anyone paying attention. And llama actually explicitly said the reasoning shortly thereafter.

Overall, I've been getting townvibes from Farside, so Im chalking this up as ABR influence.

[VP Baltar]

Other observations while I was rereading:

Didn't care for ABR and Auro fishing information off Reck.

@Blair - the Starbuck thing is over. AGar's breakdown of this is good. Trust me, most of the people in this game have played with Starbuck and she gets hyped as either alignment. That means nothing. Regarding the attack itself, seems like it could have been a mistake. I'd rather hear your thoughts on some other players than see this debate suck up all the oxygen in the room. You could start with Auro and IIAU.

[VP Baltar]

lol @ me randomly choosing blues because I'm too lazy to make my takedown of my vaporware wagon look nice.

[VP Baltar]

you're simply a player i haven't picked up any town tells from yet - this post being the first one i've liked.

I tend to get scum read a lot as either alignment. I think it's my face.

[VP Baltar]

I tend to get scum read a lot as either alignment. I think it's my face.

i used to have a terrible case of resting-scumface too. i have since learnt to let the purity of my town essence flow through me.

I'll try to reach my inner gwyneth paltrow going forward.

[VP Baltar]

Now is when things start to get more interesting. Auro's vote and then quick abandonment is a HUGE scumtell. I was a mildly up and coming wagon and he saw that as he was facing pressure. His reason for voting me was "gut" townread on Green Crayons, whose wagon happened to be waning. I took time to give him an opportunity to explain something I was missing there, but clearly my initial twinge was right, hence the vote.

So this piqued my curiosity the most out of your wagon analysis. Can you tease it out more, because Auro jumped on to a VP vote and then seemed to get distracted by farside--rather than it appearing to reflect AI on his VP vote.

Hm okay. Auro switches off to farside like an hour later. It's a huge scumtell because Auro joined the "up and coming" wagon, or it's a huge scumtell that he dove in and out?

Auro switched off I believe because I called him out on it. I think he realized he goofed because as scum in the leading wagon, you can't just sheep off onto a counter wagon. If my wagon had actually been successful with him on it like that, it would have been a disaster for him day 2.

In my post right after his vote, i point out how problematic that vote looks and ask for him to explain.

[VP Baltar]

Now is when things start to get more interesting. Auro's vote and then quick abandonment is a HUGE scumtell. I was a mildly up and coming wagon and he saw that as he was facing pressure. His reason for voting me was "gut" townread on Green Crayons, whose wagon happened to be waning. I took time to give him an opportunity to explain something I was missing there, but clearly my initial twinge was right, hence the vote.

So this piqued my curiosity the most out of your wagon analysis. Can you tease it out more, because Auro jumped on to a VP vote and then seemed to get distracted by farside--rather than it appearing to reflect AI on his VP vote.

Vp comment about auro is pretty hypocritical considering he voted auro while his wagon was building.

Not hypocritical at all given I have an actual reason and have explained it numerous times now.

[VP Baltar]

pedit: i like blair because in her last game she also liked to drive early on contradictions and sort of "force" confrontation. i just think that's who she is, and so far this feels authentic to me. like, if it's fake, it's a town fake iykwis

Have you compared this to scum Blair before? I would agree with your premise on how I perceived town Blair, but I haven't heard how she plays as scum before.

[VP Baltar]

ABR, do you think Auro is scum or town?

[VP Baltar]

Is that a defense? I thought he was partnering Blair / ABR

Nope. Point is ABR is reacting to me calling out his lack of scumhunting, so he moved into a more aggressive position. Really only mattered his vote was wasted at that time, not who it was on.

[VP Baltar]

I switched my vote from blair to you without reading your post about my useless vote or whatever. I didnt even read that.

Unlikely

[VP Baltar]

Is this the post? Very unremarkable.

Implying you could ignore seeing your own name in lights!

[VP Baltar]

I never said I was being aggressive about it. I said your response was an overly aggressive response because I called attention to you. I think you could do this as either alignment as a way to prompt reactions.

Like I said before, it is a very ABR play so it's pretty shrug to me. I do think it is silly of you to say you didn't see me responding directly to a post you had made.

[VP Baltar]

Spoiler:

UNVOTE: MT
VOTE: iamausername

I just spent a game as scum fighting against Blair's instincts to save my team. No one in that game would really follow her and she screamed into the void for many pages. She ended up copping two of them.

Blatant sheep here. Come at me if you don't like it.

UNVOTE: MT
VOTE: iamausername

I just spent a game as scum fighting against Blair's instincts to save my team. No one in that game would really follow her and she screamed into the void for many pages. She ended up copping two of them.

Blatant sheep here. Come at me if you don't like it.

Why you leave MT?

Eh, still felt like a bit of a forced interaction on her part, but maybe that's how she actually is.

I decided I'll just stan Blair instead.

Can I lure you guys into theory talk about how scum have higher cognitive load and don't recognize jokes easily

"Me scum. You no funny"

You mean like that?

Your no lynch suggestion was hella dumb and I would've voted you for it because it was hella dumb, but I don't think it was particularly AI given that it was a early (first?) D1 post.

You were actually going to vote over that?

I dont even start reading the game until page 25 these days.

Explain to me what's going on and I'll give you my opinion on it.

town heroine hoopla dazzled onlookers with a stunning moment of divine intuition, powering the wagon on GC-scum.

in response, shady antihero blair rustled up an uninspired counterwagon on lurking easy-target iamausername. her motivations? god knows.

You didn't explain anything and I still need to be explained gc and iamuser if you want my vote

You're on a wagon with MT. Is that a better explanation?

Another thing that I thought about while I was away was that VP never followed back up with MT and there read he had there. He says he is sheeping blair, says maybe that's just how MT is and then mades a comment to ABR that reads like he still finds MT scummy but I see no follow up or push there any more.
Like what happened to that read and why not follow up with it?

Are you asking me in earnest why I'm not questioning MT over the cuteness thing?

[VP Baltar]

Like IAAU's readlist where he anticipated a lot of peoples' reads so that we all think "he is seeing this game the way I do"

This right here strikes me as among the most easily fakeable.

I really don't get why people are so easily confused by lists=effort, especially on D1.

IAAU is quite insistent on my lynch still it seems and yet, he's never asked me a single question or stated a reason why.

[VP Baltar]

VP, does it bother you at all that you called me scummy for looking at my wagon and determining you to be the most likely scum on it when that is exactly what you did, right there, in the post where you called me scum for doing that?

It actually did occur to me as a little hypocritical, and I wondered if I was being biased. I do think my wagon had more momentum than yours. I also think your level of actual scumhunting has been much less and you've just been camped on me for awhile as a safe place to have a vote, so I think the circumstances are not the same.

What are your thoughts on Auro?

[VP Baltar]

i have narrowed my pool of acceptable lynches to VP Baltar and Can'tLynchAPuppy.

Also, is puppy scum simply by approximation to me or for other reasons?

[VP Baltar]

what made you think that i was suspicious of puppy through association to you?

Because puppy is actively opposing my mislynch, and I'm the only person I've seen you really glance toward this game

[VP Baltar]

VP was the one who said he was doing that in the first place in another game. So if he is doing it here for the same reason what did he gather from his reaction? Did it read like he saw a reaction that looked similar?

I'm not quite following this since the sentence structure is a little confusing, but I think you're asking what my read of Blair's response was to my sheeping her.

She didn't give a lot of response to that directly, but the fact she was critical of me a little later felt Blair town to me. I'd expect her to be a hyper aggressive player as town and to be suspicious of any buddying attempts. Granted, we are talking a sample size of one game, but she's felt genuine to me this game, if a little adrift in terms of direction.

[VP Baltar]

Spoiler:

UNVOTE: MT
VOTE: iamausername

I just spent a game as scum fighting against Blair's instincts to save my team. No one in that game would really follow her and she screamed into the void for many pages. She ended up copping two of them.

Blatant sheep here. Come at me if you don't like it.

UNVOTE: MT
VOTE: iamausername

I just spent a game as scum fighting against Blair's instincts to save my team. No one in that game would really follow her and she screamed into the void for many pages. She ended up copping two of them.

Blatant sheep here. Come at me if you don't like it.

Why you leave MT?

Eh, still felt like a bit of a forced interaction on her part, but maybe that's how she actually is.

I decided I'll just stan Blair instead.

Can I lure you guys into theory talk about how scum have higher cognitive load and don't recognize jokes easily

"Me scum. You no funny"

You mean like that?

Your no lynch suggestion was hella dumb and I would've voted you for it because it was hella dumb, but I don't think it was particularly AI given that it was a early (first?) D1 post.

You were actually going to vote over that?

I dont even start reading the game until page 25 these days.

Explain to me what's going on and I'll give you my opinion on it.

town heroine hoopla dazzled onlookers with a stunning moment of divine intuition, powering the wagon on GC-scum.

in response, shady antihero blair rustled up an uninspired counterwagon on lurking easy-target iamausername. her motivations? god knows.

You didn't explain anything and I still need to be explained gc and iamuser if you want my vote

You're on a wagon with MT. Is that a better explanation?

Another thing that I thought about while I was away was that VP never followed back up with MT and there read he had there. He says he is sheeping blair, says maybe that's just how MT is and then mades a comment to ABR that reads like he still finds MT scummy but I see no follow up or push there any more.
Like what happened to that read and why not follow up with it?

Are you asking me in earnest why I'm not questioning MT over the cuteness thing?

Are you saying that is the only reason you scum read MT? Because the last quote to ABR implies you still find MT scummy but aren't pushing a wagon there.

The post you quoted is literally 8 minutes from the post where I explain to Porkens why I left the MT vote behind (less than 24 hours since I unvoted). I don't quite follow your logic here. You're saying at that point I either should have dropped all concerns about MT or should have been following up aggressively on a forced joke twinge instead of sending a jab ABR's way?

[VP Baltar]

UT, can you tell me how your wallflower read of me is distinctly scummy from several other players in the game?

Also, how engaged do you feel in this game at this point post your larger post?

[VP Baltar]

I'm sticking with my initial read on him because I think it's a lot easier to fake reactions than to fake an initial attitude.

That's an accurate statement. But, my vote on Auro predates my wagon and is certainly the scum read I feel most confident about. It's not too late to abandon this folly and get on an actual scum lynch.

[VP Baltar]

How is you giving him that direction something that would have made him turn on you?

It's just been my experience historically with ABR (very admittedly old ass experience at this point) that he's itching for a confrontation day 1. My memory is that's something that has happened to me before (I'm sure that's probably true for many people) when I've played games with him as town. The overstated case, the memetic repetition of the lynch name to make it seem more popular than it is...as I said before, this is what I expect from him as either alignment because it's an effective strategy.

So needless to say, I decided to look back and see why he became triggered at me and saw that post as the immediate predecessor. I think it's a pretty reasonable conclusion, regardless of what he claims about whether he saw it or not (which, hey, maybe he didn't? But also how many people here don't at least read posts where they are quoted?)

the single most important thing that can happen on day 1 is a roleclaim.

To me, this feels like a more honest reason that I'm being run up. Rather than try to hunt scum, I've been chosen to disclose information as a pseudo policy. I disagree with this since we are not near the half way point you describe (7 days till deadline still...that's 48 more hours, or approximately 25 pages of content in this game based on current estimates, until we hit the half way point), and Auro is an actually good wagon to get on.

GC is correct that you're mischaracterizing yourself as "jabbing" me, when the order of events is as GC puts it:

1) I

claim

I don't read the first 25 pages of a game, ask who wants my vote, ask them to explain why I should vote there
2) You chime in and say that me and MT are wasting our votes on Blair
3) I vote you with more pazaz than my page 3 Blair vote
4) You say that I'm voting you to take a more aggressive stance against you because you called me out
5) You double down on this statement

Bold and emphasis mine because I think it's an accurate word choice.

Point #1 is I know you're a smart guy and are actually reading along. Point #2 is I'm saying there is a relation to steps 2 & 3. Actions mean more than words, and those were the actions I saw.

Could it be you're telling the truth and missed it? Totally. But I don't think that is the most likely conclusion here based upon the order of events though. I think you should actually be honest, and this is my personal flaw being a journalist.



Meanwhile in actual scum land...

The Solve
Albert B. Rampage: Arrogance and taking control are an unnecessary call to attention in a gamestate where he'd be quite comfortable as scum.
Blair: General behavior in a player-list that doesn't award tunnels
Auro: Accessed role PM; town.
Hoopla: Uniquely townreads me but also second-guesses it when the rest of town shouts that I'm scum; so there's no intent of buddying (even when I respond very positively to her generally in game).
Llamarble: Earnestness.
Porkens: I believe that "clueless" is not a way that Porkens would approach as scum.
Starbuck: The emotive reaction to the push on her, and subsequent relief at being termed a false positive both read town.
Untrod Tripod: Brazen admission of having nothing to add and call-out of the D1 solvers.
Green Crayons: One of the holistic townreads I have, rather than specific tells.
xRECKONERx: The call to cut out spam, and quick to recognize biases from playstyle (as covered earlier)

This list is they type of fluff that is all over Auro's play this game. Between that and the rampant discussions about mafia theory and meta that I just glaze over, I'm lulled into a state of "I just want to ignore this person." and then I remember I could not for the life of me tell you who Auro actually thinks is scum. The play reeks and should actually be lynched.

[VP Baltar]

Right now VP Baltar has the biggest say in that with how he plays the rest of the day, regardless of his alignment.
Hopefully he can be very active and tell us who we should go after instead of him with good reasons; that will also give us some associatives if he is scum.

I really don't think it is my responsibility to make people try harder in this game. How am I supposed to help kmd and Starbuck and Porkens actually catch up and post? How am I supposed to stop ABR from inanely repeating the same bad point again that I've already responded to? I've explained why Auro is a good lynch and why the wagon on me is vaporware.

I will try tomorrow though to put a more succinct Auro case in one place because it has certainly been spread out over a lot of pages.

[VP Baltar]

A lot of activity overnight. I'm probably not going to be able to get to this game until this afternoon, depending on how busy work is today.

I did read Porkens' catch-up since it's been a long time coming.

@Porkens can you point to some specific posts where I'm "flailing"?

Also, if I'm reading your list right (and c'mon man, I'm Meeple status? You can't give me even like a goblin or something?), you have Crayons and Puppy as your other potential scum? Why is that?

Pedit- perfect timing!

[VP Baltar]

I tend to get scum read a lot as either alignment. I think it's my face.

Actually not that far from my quarantine beard and hair at this point

[VP Baltar]

For now that’s just how I felt reading through, that you were scummy as you defended yourself. I’ll iso you later this morning and give specifics.

I look forward to specifics.

[VP Baltar]

Other thing I'm noting before I turn into vapor here...

I oddly find ABR's post about his strategy here (go after harder to lynch targets early) to actually make sense, given I think few people in this game would be easy mislynches. His anger vote off me is a bit weird and messes with my perception I was having there, but haven't yet had time to double check my instincts on yet.

[VP Baltar]

Other thing I'm noting before I turn into vapor here...

I oddly find ABR's post about his strategy here (go after harder to lynch targets early) to actually make sense, given I think few people in this game would be easy mislynches. His anger vote off me is a bit weird and messes with my perception I was having there, but haven't yet had time to double check my instincts on yet.

*a perception I was having


Phone posting

[VP Baltar]

@ABR that is a shitty sideways response to a fair, straightforward question.

On ABR v VP,

On closer inspection, this is looking more like Blair v Starbuck where neither side comes out looking great. VP’s accusation of OMGUS is flimsy. “You are on a wagon with MT” mathematically approaches “you are wasting your vote” but never actually gets there.

On the other side, the counterattack to that very same point is overblown. Furthermore, ABR’s refrain of “he’s desperately trying to look town, c’mon guys pile on” Is desperate in and of itself. The fact is there just isn’t much substance to this case.

Initially, I was going to end this post with “fine people on both sides, but we’ll will see what happens.” Instead, however, I’ll propose this hypothesis:

Revelation, Porkens 3:16;

Spoiler:

This has all been scum theater. A hidden mechanic in this game activates POWERFUL POWERS when the player reaches L-1. This wagon was designed to get VP juuuust up to the brink. I think the proest town thing to do would be to push it off the cliff.

So not flailing then, but you still think I'm the best lynch?

[VP Baltar]

VOTE: ABR

FUCK you guys got me so mad I’m gunna throw a clot

lol

Yo, I'm finally here for real now. Seems like I missed a lot.

[VP Baltar]

Your weak is fucking weak as hell. Did you go out of your way to just call one post scummy? Out of everything else said in this game you latch onto one fucking post while you do it shit post this whole game, where as I can link to Animal and DD and yes I realize you were in a hydra but there was a lot more thoughts in both fucking games compared to this. You are holding onto something that is minor and making it something more then it is.

Find myself nodding to this Farside assessment of Auro.

I feel given he is at L-1, me making a big compiled case on him is pretty pointless, but really what I see fairly clearly as the scum case is:

1) his dump of the vote off me after I called him out as bandwagoning me to avoid the troubles he was facing. I first started calling this out in my post 485
2) He votes farside on like page 17 and does little if anything to encourage people to lynch her. I mean, lord knows I've been playing defense for like 20 pages here and have not been able to do as much active scum hunting -- but I don't think that's the case with Auro. He just kind of sat on that vote and joked and theorized to infinity.
3) THE THEORIZING TO INFINITY, OH MY CHRIST. I know MT says this is how he is, and I don't know him, so that's probably true. But honestly, i think scum has benefited this game from the jumped up page count. I do think there must be a scum among the most active players encouraging that. Auro's fluff to content ratio makes him a good suspect in this regard. I called this out in post 825 Even when he's trying to make "scum/town hunting posts" it looks like generic fluff.
4) The wagon on me has felt like a combination of apathy and a refusal of people to vote Auro. That has obviously shifted. I was starting to get weird concerns in the last day or so because as I started reflecting on why I was getting wagoned, it sort of occurred to me ABR would frequently say "VP or auro" but would then slightly nudge in my direction each time (percentages, etc). Looking at ABR's ISO, I saw lots of more direct calls to vote me and direct criticisms, and not nearly as much on Auro. However, ABR's unexpected switch and refusal to put me at L-1 when he had the chance basically means I was worrying about nothing. So I need to reassess who had a lack of interest in Auro's wagon but has jumped or been on mine with no prob (thinking mainly IAAU and MT here off hand, but I need a closer look at them.)


Stopping this post so it is separate. I'll continue my catch up in my next posts.

[VP Baltar]

Also, if I'm reading your list right (and c'mon man, I'm Meeple status? You can't give me even like a goblin or something?), you have Crayons and Puppy as your other potential scum? Why is that?

Porkens, can you answer this?

I'd be happy with CLAP - none of his posts seem to have left any impression on me whatsoever, although that avatar is cute....

Set ironic posting to 1000

I haven't done the VC or gone back specifically to tally up who has suspected Auro, so this is just ~*~feelings~*~, but it seems that Auro has been this thread's punching bag. That just about everyone has gotten it out of their system about how suspicious he is. And yet he hasn't been a major focus of votes.

I think that points to Auro scum. Maybe that's unfair because this is really something that's outside of Auro's direct control, but just something that's been kicking around in my brain this AM.

Hard agree on this. It makes no sense that someone getting tons of flak for actual reasons is getting few votes, while I'm just reeling in DEM VOTES for ???????

@kmd - your post 966 about the interaction between Hoopla & Puppy feels either like super forced analysis or you are just in way too deep. Definitely doesn't read like you describe to me.

What is your read on Hoopla guys?

I've found her posts pretty protown. I'll admit Im biased because I just like her posting style. She's not a slot I've been particularly concerned with having a hard solve on day I because I think I'll get a better sense of her alignment as the game goes on.

short, declarative sentences. they're your friend.

co-fucking-signed

hoo boy, this is going to be a hot take because no one asked for it and im not going to really explain it beyond "gut feeling"

but im thinking 2/4 scum in this group: [ llamarble, farside22, reck, kmd ]

thought goes like this: day reads to me like lots of town infighting, main wagons town (vpb, auro), some of the bigger drivers (blair, abr, gc) don't feel like scum drivers. so im kind of looking for players who are skirting around the main wagons and main discussions and that's what i feel at least. (actually llamarble is 3rd most active player which surprised me because i don't remember much of what he has said / done all game, this is probably the first iso ill do when i get around to that stage)

Doesn't feel like a hot take to me at all. I think it seems like a reasonable concept. not sure I 100% agree with the people in the list, but worth a closer look.

ABR switching to Auro then not switching back to VP who he vehemently wanted at L-1 and claim is kinda eh

are you saying this is a scummy action from ABR?

You're not. I had an all-day work thing on Weds and yesterday I found out that my Great-Grandfather (who walked out on our whole family in like the '50s) passed away back in February and my Great Aunt knew but never told my Grandmother (her sister) because they haven't spoken in like 10 years although they still live like 15 min away from each other. I had to call my Grandmother in Connecticut, while I'm in Florida, to tell her that her father died six months ago and her sister couldn't have been arsed to tell her. So it's been a weird few days.

Blah, I'm sorry. That sounds super stressful.

ABR switching to Auro then not switching back to VP who he vehemently wanted at L-1 and claim is kinda eh

He scumreads Auro for not joining the VP wagon because ABR told him to? i could have predicted that reaction from Auro regardless of alignment. saying "Vote someone or I will vote you" is practically begging Auro to not do it and i wouldve thought ABR would know that

You just plagiarized Blair.

FOS: MT

I'm saying that by making the threat in the first place, you guaranteed you would be moving your vote in five minutes ("If you don't vote for who I tell you to in five minutes, I'm voting for you!" will make the other person dig their heels in 100% of the time and you knew this).

darn. It's not exactly rocket science though

you know what actually, whatever. i read through the past whatever amount of pages the best i could on my phone. Usually i wait till im on my PC to check everything more closely and be more organized and try not to be redundant, but this time i just posted what i was thinking as i thought it. at least i said something when i felt like not doing anything

This feels overly defensive to me.

I find auro scummier than VPB.

This is truly news to me.

further:

There's something ethereal about Auro whereas VPB puts on a more grounded defense.

Didn't you say some shit about me being too rational or some nonsense? I really don't understand the play here and it is confusing the hell out of me.

Green Crayons is scum.

See above. I would love for an explanation on this.

still here, still prefer VPB but it's not like i'm super sold on Auro as town (or on VPB as scum for that matter) and i mostly just want this day to be over with.

my reads look like this now.

confident townreads:
1) AGar
6) farside22
8) Hoopla
13) Porkens
14) Starbuck

less confident townreads:
2) Albert B. Rampage
3) Auro
7) Green Crayons
10) Kmd4390
11) Llamarble
12) Morning Tweet
15) Untrod Tripod
17) xRECKONERx

null reads:
4) Blair
5) CantLynchAPuppy
16) VP Baltar

Are you caught up in this game? Has no one in this game done something to actually deserve your vote?

Pork, are you alright mate? I'm 99% sure you are town but ABR acting irrationally =/= ABR conf scum, so your anger is.. misplaced

UNVOTE:

you know, I can probably defend some of Auro's criticisms, i'm sure some is NAI. but probably not all of them. I don't explicitly townread either of the competing wagonees. I can't find the motivation right now to review Auro's big ass ISO or look back for the most compelling reasons. I do know that he's been the most polarizing character of today so in theory we'll learn the most from flipping/not flipping him

you're unvoting me why? Also, why are you saying you need to go to his ISO and dig up reasons to defend him? I mean, like I would do that maybe for someone I was strong town reading, but no someone I "don't explicitly townread"

(apologies for the wall post. )

[VP Baltar]

I never thought I'd live to see the day.

I wish I had a second vote to force this Auro claim.

[VP Baltar]

As a side: if the last ditch ABR wagon attempt had scum involvement in it, that's brilliant play.

VOTE: vpbaltar

Right?

You going to answer my questions to you or keep pretending like I don't exist?

Thinking on the Auto claim. Gut says someone should hammer. This day has gone on long enough.

Hoopla makes a fair point about strategy, but I still think Auros play is quite scummy

[VP Baltar]

GAMMMAAAAAAA. We get a chance to win one together this time! Thanks for replacing in.

Ok, so I actually did do some reading over the night phase and there are SO MANY reasons to vote Morning Tweet.

VOTE: Morning Tweet

Going to run down them quick because I don't have long left on the computer here, so this is a very "notes dump" post.

The biggest reason I saw to think MT-Auro buddies is MT's incessant defense of Auro throughout D1 despite saying he is on the null to scummy side. (posts 144, 175,473, 546, 624, 642, 844, 853, 854, 1006, 1011, 1089). Alot of this is like a meta defense "auro wouldn't play like this" kind of stuff. Which, for the person who claims they know him the best here, that surely missed the target if MT is actually town.

There was also the weird Porkens "obvtown" stuff ... which feels like a scum conclusion based on very little evidence. Calls him a top town read as early as page 19. Wasn't really much substantive content from Porkens at that point yet, so not really sure how she was reaching that conclusion.

Here is another bit pulled straight from my notes:

No serious vote on anyone in the game until she votes me and my wagon is looking like it's going to happen for sure. (post 853) Also just realized this vote of me included a defense of Auro hahahahahaha.

Post 632...lists Auro as a middle of the pack null read, on the fringe of scum, and yet the defenses of Auro and efforts to nudge away from the wagon persist for most of the rest of the day.


Post 705... MT says "I don't actively scumread him but i dont exactly actively scumread, period D1" But I went to find a town game from her because this sounds kind of silly. Needless to say, I randomly picked Micro 943: Treestump and MT is voting people regularly and looking for scum on D1. So not sure where this "I don't scumhunt D1 thing started." Open to hearing more from MT to explain that.



Later in the day, seems to be inching toward my wagon by saying "I like the wagon composition" (post 848) ... which makes no fucking sense when you literally have zero scum reads and have not made a serious vote yet in the game.

The only thing that is throwing me a little bit is MT's interaction with Auro in twilight. The reactions feel slightly genuine to me, but on the other hand Auro was hamming it up and trying to make a bunch of WIFOM it seems like.

[VP Baltar]

well i was way off <_<

VOTE: iamausername

of all the voters off the auro lynch this is the most likely to be scum

This is also a good vote, imo

[VP Baltar]

Iiiii dunno, I could be the spookiest scum from your perspective - did you have a strong inclination my slot was town from Llama?

I was reading llama as pretty town D1 despite him being like a beautiful mind and wrong on many counts. He was trying hard to march the town forward.

[VP Baltar]

He seemed p. right about Auro from what I've read up to so far - what was he wrong about? (aside from his Reck thoughts, Reck being lazier than his former self is a truth he was unaware of)

Well he was clearly wrong about me for starters and contributed to that uphill fight for Auro for some time.

I also recall he was scum reading puppy, which I found myself disagreeing with.

I think the whole "solve the entire game" approach to D1 was counterproductive and contributed to a bloated D1. But hey, pobody's nerfect

[VP Baltar]

I also find it scummy when players defend others on meta for no apparent reason but on the other hand I would NEVER defend a mafia partner so obviously on day one. I’m not MT though so, maybe?

My theory is scum thought I was likely donezo until ABR acted like a beautiful psycho and refused to L-1 me.

MT was caught flat footed

[VP Baltar]

VOTE: starbuck

Bullshit, my tantrum was real. And this feels very much like a “go after porkens for his lolhammer on day 2”

Same song as always.

You OMGUSing here?

[VP Baltar]

Go ahead, the bit of information that I received is one of you or farside are scum. I think it's you. So no, my vote isn't moving and you shouldn't be been so obvscum yesterday with your reactionary stances.

VOTE: Porkens

Also, Starbuck is confirmed town if no fuckery in play. No way scum comes out D2 and 50/50s their own life after losing a teammate D1

[VP Baltar]

went full bore on it.

Kind of skimming while I'm at work, but Starbuck, just so I'm being 100% clear on your info, you had this info from the start of the D1 or you gained a revelation at some point during D1?

(I know I'm being lazy and could probably figure this out by line by line rereading your responses to puppy, but I'm not in a position to do that until EOD today. Feels like something I should understand sooner)

Porkens AtE pulls at my heart strings a bit, but I also don't remember him being a shit player back in the day? I mean, I guess we all have our own self doubts and criticisms. Lord knows, I was feeling like trash human when I was going to get lynched D1 in a game I asked for...

re: Hoopla's theory on Starbuck -- I mean, maybe? It'd be a really genius level play by scum and a worthwhile trade I suppose. I have a hard time buying that's what is going on though. I would NEVER have thought of that as an actual play worth trying. Maybe I'm dumb. I sort of read Starbuck as a pretty earnest and straightforward player. That's not the type of deception I'd expect from her, which is why I believe she's being honest about her info.

2. I'm a VT but started with the info and as part of the revelation as listed in Post 1 of the game that I already previously requoted.

ok, so I think you're saying you had it from the start of the game.

Oh and then she says she’s busy and won’t be back (which may be true but is also a great excuse to ghost this day until things shake out)

I don't like this shade throwing. I don't think anyone in this game is here for anything more than fun. Saying someone would be lying about IRL commitments is kind of shitty.

Porkens - why do you think doubting Starbuck is inherently a town move and believing her is scummy from farside? I would think if I was town in your position, I'd be like "sweet, easy scum caught. I just have to make sure that person gets lynched today"

maybe the team is auro/starbuck/farside/porkens

that'd be spicy

galaxy brain

[VP Baltar]

Now that I believe starbuck that’s where I’m at

What changed your mind specifically?

[VP Baltar]

Also I don't see anything scummy with SB.

What was your actual read on SB yesterday and how did you arrive at that read?

[VP Baltar]

Very interested in hearing from MT and Blair.

[VP Baltar]

hi VP!! (>ω<)

Since you believe Starbuck, who do you prefer lynching today, Porkens or Farside?

[VP Baltar]

if blair was scum wanting a mislynch, she could have been a lot more active to get that mislynch. i don't think blair is the kind of person who would sit by passively and watch her positoin crumble (vpb and gammagooey can back me up on this point), so i think its a misreading to look at blair like that

i think that's enough blair defense since at some point blair has to come in and defend herself

On face, I'd agree with you. My sample size with Blair is one game though, so idk. I can see a world where scum sits back on a probable mislynch to bank town cred later. That's effectively what Gamma and I did during the NPOM lynch in that game.

Anyhow, Blair can give us her own perspective.

Pedit- and she has!

[VP Baltar]

ABR pushed Auro many times.

Were there particular instances of ABR pushing Auto you saw before he refused to L-1 me?

I didn't really get a sense he was making a serious push on Auro until that moment.

[VP Baltar]

I will be truly happy when I don't have to fix every phone Auro auto correct from Auto.

[VP Baltar]

Yes, the shrieking was significant. I guess my point is that he was pushing my wagon much more thoroughly and then just sort of tacking Auro on as a second choice. So I'm curious where you felt like he was actually pushing Auro rather than just saying "VPB or Auro"

[VP Baltar]

Yes, the shrieking was significant. I guess my point is that he was pushing my wagon much more thoroughly and then just sort of tacking Auro on as a second choice. So I'm curious where you felt like he was actually pushing Auro rather than just saying "VPB or Auro"

When he's hounding everyone to vote within his PoE, "VP or Auro" is significant.

Don't really agree as much on this. We can see the results of his harder push on me (I was actually wagoned, whereas Auro coasted until ABR turned on him).

My point is that if I'm scum buddies with Auro, I might have been sitting back and reading the room as likely to end on VP, even if Auros name was being posted. Staying off wagon in that instance is the right play from scum.

You're saying you thought Auro had equal pressure until ABR's turn simply because he posted our names together?

[VP Baltar]

You already analyzed your wagon, right? Or just Auro's?

I've looked at both wagons, yeah.

I'd like to go back and look closer at farside's switch off me onto Auro though and reevaluate given the new info from you. Maybe the tone will read different knowing she could be scum trying to read the likelihood of the Auro wagon at the time.

[VP Baltar]

Hey farside. I didn’t say you said you were ghosting - I said it was a good setup to ghost, but I’m glad you are not.

So the info you have makes starbuck look town. Hmm. What % confidence would you place in that?

My info is not like hers. It does say vt and in the pm it says i know x info in the game.

Just an fyi i had some info too, which was why I believed star. My info helps scum more then town tbf.

would revealing this information make it more likely we believe you to be town?

or are you planning on taking it to the grave?

Yes I will. I'm not good with helping scum.

Is this info helpful at all to town or just to scum?

[VP Baltar]

Auro keeps the weak scumread on Farside up when pressed, but again - never really commits to this. 906, farside realizes that Auro wagon might be back on so why not try and get that sweet sweet towncred from a bus? They've both said they suspect each other, so it's gravy! And nary a word is said of Auro again, nor a post for the rest of the day. Coast on the wagon, don't try and say anything that could cause a slip, and cash in, amirite?

Yeah, I agree with this analysis. Interestingly, farside votes shortly after ABR gets pissed off at Auro for not voting me. Auro really did look scummy there because he had no reason not to vote me. The fact she doesn't pressure him after that does indeed look like soft bussing.

UNVOTE: porkens

Spiritual vote on farside or willing to hammer. Not sure what the vote count is atm

[VP Baltar]

VOTE: farside

What is P?

[VP Baltar]

Is this a gimmick to reveal you’re SK or something?

Is this at Porkens or Farside? Cause that "I have scum info but I'm not scum" is throwing me for a loop

[VP Baltar]

Oh that's awesome! I was actually thinking about that recently being problematic.

[VP Baltar]

Wow, 19 pages of debate over this.

*Homer slowly backing into bushes.gif

[VP Baltar]

It is absolutely blowing my mind that you all are passing on the people on yesterday's LITERAL LAST DITCH COUNTERWAGON TO SCUM to focus on farside who did... I don't know... vaguely something???

what in the fuck is happening right now

Are you actually reading the thread or....

[VP Baltar]

Before we end today, I want to know if UT is actually tracking this game or not.

I also sort of feel like if anyone else has a 50/50, maybe we should know about it? I suspect that's not the case since ABR and Starbuck both had them it seems, but if it does exist, that'd be info we shouldn't risk to a NK

[VP Baltar]

i believe starbuck's specific fullclaim because reasons

don't waste an investigation there check someone else

or how about if we have a detective or something we don't out them for no reason that seems good

im going to beat UT to it because fuck UT

VOTE: farside

Some cold blooded shit.

Re: investigation -- may make more sense to check Porkens. That would potentially clear both Porkens and SB in one action.

[VP Baltar]

CLAP or Gamma

What's the case on either really?

I see Agars post on gamma's slot, but is that it?

In terms of bus potential.

I liked VP’s Morning Tweet case at least in the sense that it was using associatives off a known flip. That gets me all riled up.

I'm still about a Morning Tweet wagon.

Hell, I'll even start it.

VOTE: Morning Tweet

Yerp, all about that life.

VOTE: Morning Tweet

Starbuck + Baltar team cleaning house.

iamausername also needs more scrutiny.

who feels like impressing me by investigating his slot? BIG town points on offer to any intrepid reporter.

ooo ooo, I'm a reporter! If by investigate his slot, you mean review his iso, I'm eager to do that. I have some notes on my computer after D1. It just wasn't as compelling as the MT case, who is def the right purge (this is the new word I'm using!) today. I'll grab that IAAU stuff next time I'm on a PC though

[VP Baltar]

mostly I can't understand just NOT HAVING any scum reads at that point. also, puts the two flipped scum in the town pile.

Yeeeeessss, this was definitely in my notes and struck me as BS similar to the way Auro wasn't really scumhunting. MT said the same thing day 1, which I believe I noted in my case.

Also, UT's point about the farside transition from town to scum resonates with me

[VP Baltar]

you mean review his iso, I'm eager to do that. I have some notes on my computer after D1.

love to see what you have to add to the post above. I found a few things just doing a quick skim. maybe we can go 3 for 3

Just for you, I put down my porch beer and RAN TO THE 'PUTER.

I don't have a ton to add, but I also did not do an overnight reread of IIAU because I stand by my MT case. Here is a copypasta of my notes:

- First serious vote of the game is on me and he just camps on that. He briefly votes Auro, and then unvotes him to get back on me. It feels like a weak bus that he chickened out on.

When I point out that he voted me without doing so much as even asking me a question, he asks me questions...which feels reactionary.

- Post 756... says he's willing to lynch puppy, even though he hasn't said word one about him.

Post 766...It strikes me that both IIAU and MT say this same "I'm only going to town read D1." IAAU doesn't have any recent town games, so I can't really check if this is true or not. Light defense of Auro in this post, which he puts at Hoopla's feet for making such a convincing townread.

The posts I reference in those notes are here:

i have narrowed my pool of acceptable lynches to VP Baltar and Can'tLynchAPuppy.

Which I do think is really out of the blue with puppy when nothing has been said there.

He later clarifies with this:

puppy is the other player that has done nothing that has struck me as town.

i decided a while back to take a townhunting approach to this game instead of a scumhunting approach because i was struggling to find anything scummy to latch onto.

'hasn't done anything to be town' is pretty lazy to me, and easily excusable if pressed (or open to change at a whim).

That also happens to be post 766, which is the other post I reference in my notes. Notice the blame for thinking Auro is town lies at Hoopla's feet rather than his own

clearly i have false positives, because there are definitely going to be more than two scum in a 17 player game, but i figure on later days my town-sieve will have smaller holes. or i might actually find some scummy behaviour. either way, i am not especially concerned about it right now.

Auro is one of the more likely false positives, i guess. i found Hoopla's explanation for her townread on him in 462 convincing more than anything Auro has done himself.

[VP Baltar]

ok the clap iso will happen when im not drunk

DO IT DRUNK

[VP Baltar]

not sure if i've ever played a vi-game before.

does vi have a history of modding surprise-cult games? 3 mafia + a cult leader seems like the only possible anti-town combination other than four mafia that could work, since it looks like we don't have a SK.

I'd expect a Vi game to have some kind of twist. (Which is why I wanted them to mod.)

It has occurred to me some type of 3rd party could be in play and that's why the town pool seems so large in this game. But I'm also unsure and we're killing them scum, so....

[VP Baltar]

not going to spend any more time defending myself - i backed the wrong horse D1 and played pretty terribly in general, and if i take the fall for that, so be it. it will be a much more worthwhile use of my time to try to figure out the actual scum before i go.

Actually went back because I thought I had missed your defense. I did not.

As a person who spent 20 pages trying to stop you and others from purging me over Auro, I think at least some defense of the case against you is warranted?

[VP Baltar]

Re: puppy case - doesn't feel super convincing to me. But I appreciate the drunk case. I assume this is what it is like to be a real detective.

Like I can maybe see some of the points, but only if I read puppy's actions in the least charitable way. Best point seems to be assumption of 4 scum and the associated scum pool. Putting one buddy in that pool would definitely be a move I'd do as scum for future town cred if flipped. But, on the flip side, 4 scum also seems like an assumption someone could just make.

GC, curious what you found the strongest points of the CLAP case to be.


Hoopla, did your revelation say 4 mafia or generally 4 people with non town goals?

[VP Baltar]

Hoopla, did your revelation say 4 mafia or generally 4 people with non town goals?

i was told there are four anti-town players in the game.

Ok, thanks. One thing that did occur to me when I was trying to reconcile that info with an apparent lack of serial killer and the large amount of people looking pretty town at this point, is the potential for a survivor.

Could be a cult as you suggested, but those always end up so swingy and unpredictable, whereas a survivor could easily skate as town and things will get very confusing if we manage to root out all the scum but the game is still going.

[VP Baltar]

GC, curious what you found the strongest points of the CLAP case to be.

1672’s tldr is a pretty good reason to vote CLAP

Assuming you mean 1572.

I'd repeat my question though because "all of them" isn't really an answer. Which specific points are you agreeing with most? Are there any that don't sway you?

[VP Baltar]

I don’t really understand your Q. Or, I should say, the motivation behind it in terms of what you’re trying to clarify.

Cases usually don’t involve silver bullets. There isn’t one single thing that I think is the deal sealer. It’s the totality of Reck’s observation of CLAP’s D1 play. And I think CLAP is on a potential bus slot for the farside wagon.

I'm trying to get you to articulate what you think the case on Puppy actually is because I don't find it that strong, so when I see someone just sheeping on to it, I want them to actually explain their position. I never said a word about a "silver bullet" or a "deal sealer." I asked you to explain, with words, what you thought the best reasons were. I'm not really sure what is so confusing there or difficult to answer.

farside opted for a similar style of revelation-softclaiming as reck earlier in the game.

though scum should be thinking about their strategy re: revelations, my intuition suggests that two scum wouldn't both soft a revelation D1.

could reck/farside both be so crafty?

I don't really find these things that similar. Farside's was under pressure, iirc. Seems like it could be something she faked, especially since she never made an actual revelation claim. Reck's seems more ahead of the curve.

If we have everyone with a revelation claim they have a revelation, does that help us narrow town pool?


I don’t think so but just throwing it out there in case if I’m missing something.

I think this only makes sense if we believe farside was the scum with info. I'm not sure I really do. Ostensibly, that info would help a scum fake claim, so if it was hers I don't see why she wouldn't have revealed it to try and stop her purge yesterday. Now, if it was her buddy's and she didn't want to outright steal it for herself, I could see the soft claim.

presumably there's a Tarhalindur in the game

good memory! I totally forgot about this aspect of Vi games.

[VP Baltar]

I can confirm I struggle really hard to scumread D1 quite a lot, you just checked a game where something very interesting happened during RVS, a player was put to L-1 and nearly hammered immediately. I've been getting better at it I suppose, but this game isn't going so well in that department for me. To be honest I kind of underestimated myself, recently I have been getting scumreads more. Here's an example if you like though

Ok, so I've looked at this game and even there it does not appear you have trouble scumhunting necessarily. You link to Post 583 as proof of your indecision.

But as early as post 144viewtopic.php?p=11810992#p11810992 you're giving reads in response to someone saying you're not scumhunting enough.

Like I can possibly believe you have struggled in the past to for scum reads, but I don't really follow that as far as to say you could go an entire first day without some kind of reads of your own and then slink onto a scum counter wagon.

[VP Baltar]

@Blair -- thoughts on MT and puppy?

[VP Baltar]

EBWOP

But as early as Post 144 you're giving reads in response to someone saying you're not scumhunting enough.

[VP Baltar]

what is a tarhalindur

Former MS user. Frequent bastard character in Vi games

[VP Baltar]

My revelation is that Morning Tweet is actually Untrod Tripod.

You can see it in the vote count.

[VP Baltar]

I have some catching up to do after being offline a good chunk yesterday. Not sure why the MT wagon is falling apart. Maybe there is something amazing town I missed. I did see someone say something about it moving too fast...which I don't get. With two scum left who are badly losing this game, it wouldn't surprise me if a correct town wagon would form quickly.

[VP Baltar]

If it is dispersing because of the VT claim, I don't find that persuasive. It's basically a WIFOM argument on optimal scum strategy for a team that is playing suboptimal.

[VP Baltar]

ngl idg the kmd votes

explain

^this

[VP Baltar]

I can confirm I struggle really hard to scumread D1 quite a lot, you just checked a game where something very interesting happened during RVS, a player was put to L-1 and nearly hammered immediately. I've been getting better at it I suppose, but this game isn't going so well in that department for me. To be honest I kind of underestimated myself, recently I have been getting scumreads more. Here's an example if you like though

Ok, so I've looked at this game and even there it does not appear you have trouble scumhunting necessarily. You link to Post 583 as proof of your indecision.

But as early as post 144viewtopic.php?p=11810992#p11810992 you're giving reads in response to someone saying you're not scumhunting enough.

Like I can possibly believe you have struggled in the past to for scum reads, but I don't really follow that as far as to say you could go an entire first day without some kind of reads of your own and then slink onto a scum counter wagon.

Guess I am never getting this answered

I'm going to strongly suggest we yeet MT unless this replacement is amazingly town. The association to Auro is incredible and everyone fracturing into their pet project without very good cases is killing momentum in this game. I could compromise maybe on IAAU, but I thought his last post was finally engaged and better.

Kmd seems like he is still behind from the Fourth, but willing to hear an actual case there as well.

It's likely there is a scum hiding in my town reads, but I'm 100% good taking a scum circling the drain today as an easy win to keep this party going!

[VP Baltar]

is being disengaged a scumtell?

Is that all you took from my post?

This does seem to be the bulk of the kmd case...which I'm not finding super persuasive. I definitely don't think kmd has done very much this game, but he also missed like all of day 2 and seemed to have been gone for the holiday or something.

If we are going to policy yeet anyone, let's just do MT. A replacement is going to kill momentum here further.

quoting my previous case for ease of reference:

GAMMMAAAAAAA. We get a chance to win one together this time! Thanks for replacing in.

Ok, so I actually did do some reading over the night phase and there are SO MANY reasons to vote Morning Tweet.

VOTE: Morning Tweet

Going to run down them quick because I don't have long left on the computer here, so this is a very "notes dump" post.

The biggest reason I saw to think MT-Auro buddies is MT's incessant defense of Auro throughout D1 despite saying he is on the null to scummy side. (posts 144, 175,473, 546, 624, 642, 844, 853, 854, 1006, 1011, 1089). Alot of this is like a meta defense "auro wouldn't play like this" kind of stuff. Which, for the person who claims they know him the best here, that surely missed the target if MT is actually town.

There was also the weird Porkens "obvtown" stuff ... which feels like a scum conclusion based on very little evidence. Calls him a top town read as early as page 19. Wasn't really much substantive content from Porkens at that point yet, so not really sure how she was reaching that conclusion.

Here is another bit pulled straight from my notes:

No serious vote on anyone in the game until she votes me and my wagon is looking like it's going to happen for sure. (post 853) Also just realized this vote of me included a defense of Auro hahahahahaha.

Post 632...lists Auro as a middle of the pack null read, on the fringe of scum, and yet the defenses of Auro and efforts to nudge away from the wagon persist for most of the rest of the day.


Post 705... MT says "I don't actively scumread him but i dont exactly actively scumread, period D1" But I went to find a town game from her because this sounds kind of silly. Needless to say, I randomly picked Micro 943: Treestump and MT is voting people regularly and looking for scum on D1. So not sure where this "I don't scumhunt D1 thing started." Open to hearing more from MT to explain that.



Later in the day, seems to be inching toward my wagon by saying "I like the wagon composition" (post 848) ... which makes no fucking sense when you literally have zero scum reads and have not made a serious vote yet in the game.

The only thing that is throwing me a little bit is MT's interaction with Auro in twilight. The reactions feel slightly genuine to me, but on the other hand Auro was hamming it up and trying to make a bunch of WIFOM it seems like.

Ask yourself this, would I as a town member defend someone else 13 times on D1 if I had them on the scum side of a null read? If the answer is no, you should be voting for MT.

Lastly, I'll add that I am suspicious of the replace out as a disappointed scum who wasn't engaged replacing out to help a partner in a game they are losing. It's equivalent to a free pass for that slot for the day because no one is going to want to yeet someone who just had the decency to replace into a 70 page game.

[VP Baltar]

672 is the first post that pings extremely scummy to me. just... Blair felt like she wasn't pushing Starbuck hard enough, and was going to be scumread for that, but it turned out people starting scumreading her for the opposite! like, the "i thought i would be scumread for not pushing hard enough" seems like a weird thing to think to start with, and smacks of a guilty conscience. and then the fact that she just... stops pushing Starbuck here just absolutely stinks. there's no "you guys are wrong, Starbuck is scummy" or "yeah, i guess i was wrong about Starbuck", just "oh, i'm being scumread for this, better stop doing it!"

678 - if Auro is so confusing, why no effort to figure him out? like, this post came after she asked ABR who to vote and he said "VP/Auro/UT all need pushing", so she declares VP town, Auro 'confusing' and then votes UT? there's no indication that she thinks UT is scummy, just that's another player ABR named, so i guess that's good enough?

1022 - 'hates' both the main wagons, does nothing to push anything else. this is the tl;dr version of my case right here

1032 & 1080 - that is an awfully quick turnaround from "I'm not really convinced Porkens' reaction to ABR was genuine townie outrage" to "Porkens is the hero we need right now".

1340 - find it extremely suspect that Blair sees Starbuck's revelation and just immediately jumps to 'Porkens is scum' without appearing to give any thought to the other half of that equation. like, most people, given that info, either said "well, i have a townread on farside/Porkens, so i guess it must be the other one" or "not sure, guess i'll reread them both", but Blair just jumps straight to "Starbuck is voting Porkens so i will too." like, this doesn't feel like the moment Blair learns that one of farside/Porkens is scum, this feels like the moment Blair learns that she has an excellent excuse to vote for Porkens.

This Blair case isn't entirely terrible, actually. hmm, I may have been wrong on IAAU.

[VP Baltar]

Oh, I'm sorry, maybe I wasn't clear.

I'm 100% not reading 70 pages.

Where we landing, boys?

Are you planning on doing any reading?

[VP Baltar]

I like where AGar's heads at at the top of the page

How could his case possibly make sense if you haven't read to verify yourself?

[VP Baltar]

For example, Blair gets points for just answering the question as does Gamma for prompting this query first. Kmd and you do not.

Also, please explain why town is more likely to respond to your question, "where we landing boys"?

[VP Baltar]

I didn't say I understood his case, I said I like where his head's at.

They aren't. My points system here, much like the insistence that I 100% need to read even 50 pages, is absolutely arbitrary. Shit'll get better as the pages continue, no?

How can you like where his head is at when you don't understand what is being said?

I'm not giving you a free pass since your slot is most associated with flipped scum. I did not ask you to read any set number of pages, but you're definitely not walking on this day just sheeping onto a convenient wagon.

Pedit - get to work then and stop trying to strawman about how you're being harassed to read thousands of posts.

[VP Baltar]

I'm with Reck in that I am not excited about many of the cases being presented. I think we need some compromise here.

I'm liking the increased effort from IAAU, though I disagree with his Morning Tweet/chk assessment. It's dismissing a mountain of scummy behavior for a molehill of town behavior. But clearly we need to come to some compromise here to avoid an apathy yeet.

People I am willing to yeet today

chkflip
Blair

Never going to yeet today

Starbuck
Gamma
Agar
Puppy
Reck
hoopla

People who I need to see a stronger case to yeet

kmd
GC
IAAU

[VP Baltar]

I know you haven't played with scum!Blair, VP, but does this feel like my scum game to you?

Yeah, meta is garbage

is garbage

, etc. but beyond a Level 1 analysis of, "Blair opposed the Auro wagon and supported a Porkens wagon over Farside," I don't really see the case for scum!Blair here.

Of course I wouldn't see it, naturally, and the fact that I'm even engaging in this conversation is outside of my norms, but I would like to hear more about this. Get inside my head. Explain the Blair-the-Scum-Mastermind theory, please.

I exert a lot of control over the thread when I put forth the effort - do you feel like my interactions with the Auro and Farside wagons are indicative of scum!Blair genuinely trying to subvert those efforts? Or is your working theory that I'm just extra lazy when I draw a scum role PM? (The available data, while limited, suggests the opposite)

I don't think I'm trying to peg you on meta. I have noticed you being pretty reactive rather than proactive this game. Case in point: actually responding quickly when I mentioned you. Suggests to me you are reading the thread but only popping in as needed. You answer questions when asked, but aren't posing many of your own.

I just don't see you pushing a case. Which to some degree I get because fuck this game is exhausting when people won't move the way you want -- but I expect a losing scum team to be less engaged right now than town.

[VP Baltar]

Contrast this with my last scum game, where we were set on a hard course for a mechanical loss from Day 1 - I hustled hard and came within one vote of a sweep.

How long ago was this?

[VP Baltar]

Less than a month ago.

Here you go, one heaping serving of scum!Blair coming up: Noughts & Crosses | The Noughts PT

I guess my point is that those types of fights from behind as scum can be exhausting. If I had to come off a fight like that as scum, I don't know if I could muster the will for another right after.

Not discounting what you're saying, but lord knows I wanted to say fuck this game when I was fighting for my life D1 after I had just finished our mini and spent many days trying to win a losing battle.

Anyhow, I'd love to see more bruising up the scum from you so I don't have to put up with the weird vibes. We can still yeet righteously on chk.

[VP Baltar]

Why not IAAU? Hanging on to my earliest scum read is one of my few great joys in this game.

His more recent posts have been better at articulating an actual point of view on the game (though I will same that kmd vote feels a bit convenient).

I also became less enthused on IAAU when MT tossed a vote on him and then said she was going vla.

I'm open to hearing an updated bullet point case from you since your vote was after UT's case. What do you make of IAAU's more recent posts with flesh on the bones? (You can ignore his case on you, I noted your response there).

[VP Baltar]

Looks like claim time to me

[VP Baltar]

I also don't believe this claim. Tracks and reasons and any breadcrumbs now please.

[VP Baltar]

What the heck is going on with this game?

[VP Baltar]

What the heck is going on with this game?

classic comedy

For real, this is some Vi stuff for sure.

[VP Baltar]

Does anyone have tracker revelations to help sort this?

[VP Baltar]

yes only a tracker can visit another player

Getting into WIFOM territory, but maybe kmd would have actually been who scum chose to perform a NK on N1?

Like, farside seemed to be in a lot of town columns until she got busted, so I can't see her doing it. That would leave a scum!kmd and a seemingly well hidden 4th as the killers N1. Unless chk is the fourth with kmd, wouldn't scum have sent kmd that night?

[VP Baltar]

me coming back to this thread like

IT IS THE WORST TIMELINE

[VP Baltar]

sure why not

VOTE: chkflip i guess

also my reason for wanting a trackertriangle is:
1. if there's scum in there...
.....A: they have to keep tracking people instead of killing to keep up their claim and not get caught
.....B: scum are forced to kill a tracker instead of a higher priority target, which further narrows the lynch pool and sorts the tracker situation for us
2. if there's no scum in there...
.....A: scum have to deal w/ potentially three conftown at the end of the game with only two scum left if they don't kill them
.....B: or scum have to kill off the trackers which lets other potential PRs get some cover to do work

I see some holes in this plan, but there may come a point where it works

[VP Baltar]

What's the case for chkflip?

I've posted it like 10 times. You're not serious?


I'm still not buying the kmd claim, but agree that can hold a day, especially if we can flipCHK (check out that wordplay!) as scum. It's basically a checkmate on kmd at that point.

[VP Baltar]

For him, personally, he's had 27 posts and not an ounce of real contribution

Also, this

[VP Baltar]

I really don't think chk is scum though...

You wouldn't

[VP Baltar]

If you had bothered to read any of day 1, you'd realize how stupid you sound rn. I'm sorry you got a scum role and appreciate you replacing in all the same.

[VP Baltar]

Yeet me to the sun.

We're waiting for puppy to weigh in, but you should keep flailing.

[VP Baltar]

Kmd not being on the wagon is a reach for town cred.

You finally say something that is plausible

[VP Baltar]

claim plz chkflip

No.

Why no claim?

[VP Baltar]

Also ~reasons~

THREE FOR THREE YALL

[VP Baltar]

I was having fun anyhow

[VP Baltar]

Probably means scum don't have day talk since they likely would have told CHK that MT had already claimed VT.

Or if there is day talk, his buddy isn't around currently.

[VP Baltar]

Oh look, the thread is stalled. AGAIN.

This wait is likely worthwhile

[VP Baltar]

agar is worried because with POE the PR can't be agar/kmd/GC, so that leaves a pool of 8/11, then figure 2 scum so 6/11, and then all the players who haven't visited anybody would be eliminated too

i promise i am not worried about this at all and i have a good reason. you can vote for me tomorrow if i fail to provide a good explanation

Yeah you haven’t inspired me that you’re operating in good faith here.

We can move on as far as I’m concerned, I don’t think this is going to proceed anywhere that benefits the town. My fear is the PR will be PoEd even further than that based on gameplay and associatives.

Just spitballing here, would it make sense to list a group of targets (maybe 3? 2 false, 1 true) and puppy can infer whatever he needs to know from that?

Maybe this is a question for puppy.

I'm with hoops that figuring out some of the setup stuff seems a higher reward for town than scum given the current numbers.

[VP Baltar]

AGar: Hoopla n1, someone who visited n2
GC: Kmd n1, ??? n2
Kmd: CLAP n1, Hoopla n2

[VP Baltar]

plz 2 yeet chk

[VP Baltar]

~~ Intent to hammer ~~

It's fine you don't need to give any wind up

[VP Baltar]

I'm surprised Reck has been so quiet during all this and hasnt tried to get more people following in his footsteps.

Puppy, would it make sense to reveal your revelation before the deed is done here?

[VP Baltar]

trackers go

[VP Baltar]

Processing the setup madness.

Puppy why did you crumb the kills are random only to later say they are mod chosen? Your role PM makes it clear it's mod pick and not a dice roll or something?

Gamma, why did you claim before kmd? Seems like making kmd go first would have been the right choice today. I assume you were trying to get ahead of an IAAU kill.

Given iaau is kind of a weird kill choice, I can probably believe a random kill. Not entirely sure this isn't a smart puppy gambit. I need to think on the likelihood of scum knowing the kill is random in their revelations or something.

Maybe we can figure out mass claim by tracking who hasn't actually claimed yet, because it feels like lots have...

I'm also very curious if reck's info confirms any of this.

[VP Baltar]

Ninja does seem like an obvious scum power tbh. This essentially becomes a vanilla game ... which is kind of genius.

[VP Baltar]

So given your knowledge of that, feel like you have gained any insights by watching the kills flip?

[VP Baltar]

more broadly, trackers should claim before i did because my claim changes the meaning of all track claims.

Wouldn't you claiming first and keeping trackers under wraps equally inform them that their information might be suspect or unreliable?

I get what you're saying about trying to catch someone out targeting an early game NK choice, but seems like an imbalance in the information trade

[VP Baltar]

i think they're good for town

How so? Isn't the randomness what is neutering tracking power?

[VP Baltar]

Reck, did I miss the extent of your revelation? For some reason I have it in my head that you had some info we don't know yet.

[VP Baltar]

On eliminating Vi, it's got a major pro and a major con. The pro is we have four chances to catch scum killing if they submit their own kill. The con is the kill is in scum's hands again. Looks like Vi can reset the votes though so unless it counts if we get it in before a vote count is posted, we can't do it anyway.

I don't think Vi was so much resetting the votes as just making it clear you can't actually vote for Vi

[VP Baltar]

who else beyond me has not claimed yet? I still want to figure out if mass claiming just makes sense at this point.

[VP Baltar]

who else beyond me has not claimed yet? I still want to figure out if mass claiming just makes sense at this point.

Blair, Hoopla, UT, Reck.....I think?

Didn't UT claim VT? And I think Reck claimed VT with a revelation, I think?

If those are true, we are looking at just like a third of people left

[VP Baltar]

1) discuss massclaim (i'm in favor)

I think I'm in favor of this as well. Not seeing a lot of downside at this point. Someone speak if you see a good reason not to.

[VP Baltar]

also im not claiming my revelation, doing so would be anti-town, scum already know that i know ~something~ so i'm leaving it at that. u wanna mislynch me that's fine, go ahead

Just so we can keep this claim train moving, you're claiming VT with a revelation, right?

Also, don't you think the odds are greater you'll be dead before LyLo, even if puppy's theory of random kills is correct?

[VP Baltar]

and yes, if it's random kills, i'm likely dead before xylo anyway. if it's not random kills, i don't know, scum could be playing mega mindgames trying to leave me alive hoping to force me to claim what my info is

(good correct on xylo...old habits)

so, from your perspective, it's better info dies with you rather than it being public before endgame?

[VP Baltar]

absolutely 100%. it's the nature of the info specifically. y'all are free to lynch me if that's where majority feels comfortable, i know i've been aloof and disengaged. i don't have any strong scum reads, though tbh i don't think anyone does. but i'm just saying ahead of time if a wagon gets started on me, don't expect me to drop my info to get pressure off of me. it's better if i die with it.

I don't really want to policy yeet anyone. I'm just having a hard time understanding. I assume this info basically confirms you as town, and that's why you want to save it until xylo. Wouldn't being confirmed town help us just as much now and everyday you don't eat a kill? You being yeeted to hold onto that info seems to defeat that purpose.

[VP Baltar]

Does the info confirm you as town?

[VP Baltar]

So, just my claim now I believe?

[VP Baltar]

I know this is going to come as a shock to y'all, but I am ... wait for it ... a tracker.

N1: UT goes nowhere
N2: IAAU goes nowhere
N3: kmd visits Gamma


breadcrumbs: My first post of the game I said I "watched" ABR. End of D2 I said "I want to know if UT is actually

tracking

this game or not." And then early on D3, Hoopla asked if anyone could impress her by investigating IAAU, to which I replied "ooo, ooo, I'm a reporter." Hadn't breadcrumbed kmd track today since it seemed likely to be mass claim today.

I held out claiming yesterday during the tracker debacle because I hoped that I'd be the dark horse who lived after the mafia started killing the trackers...doesn't seem like it mattered now.

[VP Baltar]

I know this is going to come as a shock to y'all, but I am ... wait for it ... a tracker.

N1: UT goes nowhere
N2: IAAU goes nowhere
N3: kmd visits Gamma


breadcrumbs: My first post of the game I said I "watched" ABR. End of D2 I said "I want to know if UT is actually

tracking

this game or not." And then early on D3, Hoopla asked if anyone could impress her by investigating IAAU, to which I replied "ooo, ooo, I'm a reporter." Hadn't breadcrumbed kmd track today since it seemed likely to be mass claim today.

I held out claiming yesterday during the tracker debacle because I hoped that I'd be the dark horse who lived after the mafia started killing the trackers...doesn't seem like it mattered now.

Would you fault me for thinking your crumbs could fit several different roles? The Day 2 one is spot on, of course, but the others are better fits as crumbs for different roles, not Tracker.

Writing the word tracker repeatedly would seem a little on the nose.

I've also never been particularly good at breadcrumbs. Shrug.

[VP Baltar]

...wow. 6 trackers

1/6 scum? 2/6 scum? 2/6 seems a lot more likely to me tbh. 2 scum trackers might also explain why auro didn't claim, and somehow i think it's a bigger troll for scum if they have two, and i think solving the setup just means figuring out what would make vi laugh the most

Maybe. Given the trackers are all neutered (assuming your revelation is truthful), I'm considering this a vanilla setup. I think scum could be anywhere.

I still think kmd is probably the most suspicious of the trackers, but he was truthful about his night action

[VP Baltar]

...wow. 6 trackers

1/6 scum? 2/6 scum? 2/6 seems a lot more likely to me tbh. 2 scum trackers might also explain why auro didn't claim, and somehow i think it's a bigger troll for scum if they have two, and i think solving the setup just means figuring out what would make vi laugh the most

Maybe. Given the trackers are all neutered (assuming your revelation is truthful), I'm considering this a vanilla setup. I think scum could be anywhere.

I still think kmd is probably the most suspicious of the trackers, but he was truthful about his night action

Actually, I'm kind of confused about the logic you're using to say 2/6 is more likely...you're getting there because Auro claimed VT?

[VP Baltar]

no i think massclaim is stupid

Like in general or in this game? Neither seems like a good thought.

[VP Baltar]

i mean this game specifically but now that we have 6 trackers on the table i guess it really doesn't fucking matter that much bc this game is pants on head

Don't forget to light them on fire

[VP Baltar]

...wow. 6 trackers

1/6 scum? 2/6 scum? 2/6 seems a lot more likely to me tbh. 2 scum trackers might also explain why auro didn't claim, and somehow i think it's a bigger troll for scum if they have two, and i think solving the setup just means figuring out what would make vi laugh the most

Maybe. Given the trackers are all neutered (assuming your revelation is truthful), I'm considering this a vanilla setup. I think scum could be anywhere.

I still think kmd is probably the most suspicious of the trackers, but he was truthful about his night action

Oh nm, I misread this. Thought you were saying both of the remaining scum were among the trackers, which was ?????

I can definitely see 2/6 total being scum and the other scum role being something like a ninja so they can't get caught out by tracker mania. Seems like the most likely setup to give you a tense xylo situation

[VP Baltar]

I do think Reck's awkward revelation claim is worth pushing, and I also really hate VP's Tracker claim.

Both of these need deeper explanation

[VP Baltar]

Re: VP Baltar
It looks like he laid out breadcrumbs for multiple roles, not just Tracker.
He waited until everyone else had claimed before joining the Tracker party?
There's nothing special about any of his checks - so why did he feel the need to hang back instead of claiming with the other Trackers yesterday?

You think I was what, going to claim watcher or tracker? You think I'm faking a claim that can easily be verified by a bunch of trackers at this point?

Why would I have claimed yesterday when I had the potential to be a hidden force at that point?

[VP Baltar]

You think I was what, going to claim watcher or tracker?

Maybe. It looks like you breadcrumbed Watcher on Day 1 then breadcrumbed Tracker on Day 2... and I don't even know what we were supposed to glean from the third one, but definitely not Tracker?

It looks like you prepped early on to have some options by the time we reached massclaim. Then at some point you discovered this was some awkward 72-Tracker Fiesta and settled on Tracker as the only viable PR claim.

The alternative is that it was all genuine, but then I'm left wondering what on earth the rationale was for crumbs #1 and #3.

You think I'm faking a claim that can easily be verified by a bunch of trackers at this point?

Nothing about your claim is falsifiable.

Why would I have claimed yesterday when I had the potential to be a hidden force at that point?

Your plan was to be "a hidden force"? You said you tracked Gamma last night. So another Tracker claims to have tracked another Tracker claim (and you already knew Gamma's target because you were the last to claim). You did the same thing as all the other Trackers. Help me understand this strategy?

The concept behind all my crumbs were terms related to investigations. Kind of silly to say I was cornered into tracker when I was crumbing my targets the whole time.

My claim, and really all trackers seem verifiable with coordinated tracks to see who goes where.

Re: gamma...I didn't track him. I tracked kmd to gamma. I tracked kmd because his claim was most suspicious.

[VP Baltar]

You haven't actually taken any risk by claiming that if it's false.

That's just wrong. If people are skeptical, they could tell me to track a tracker and post the result first thing tomorrow. The other tracker could then confirm whether I'm telling the truth about who they visited or not. It's pretty easy to verify any particular tracker on any particular night.

Are you willfully misunderstanding here or you don't know how trackers work?

--------

In other news, I'm a bit torn on focusing on the tracker pool vs. the pool of people with revelations this game. I'm suspicious someone in that latter pool could be lying, particularly since I think ABR likely had a revelation on Auro/me given his laser focus on us from the jump and the bad case that formed my wagon D1. There's also a non-zero level of fuckery going on with both reck & puppy's info, though I don't find either of their actions this game particularly scummy. Clearly Vi was intending at least one revelation to make a person look like an unreliable narrator.

Reck, why are you so confident farside was telling the truth about a revelation? It just read to me like a lie any scum could tell on threat of death. Plus, wouldn't all scum be privy to revealed info after talking with their buddies? Doesn't seem any kind of guarantee that alleged info (which was never given) actually originated with her.

[VP Baltar]

@VPB - you're pretty clearly a tracker because of what this game is and b/c you're not suicidal. But, to be fair to Blair's paranoia of you (though not her specifics), you leaving a watcher breadcrumb as scum in case you got ran up early and needed a claim that wasn't tracker assuming scum-you knew tracker would be counterclaimed isn't completely impossible. I don't really think that's what happened, but it's theoretically a play scum VPB could make.

Sure, that's understandable. But Blair's point seems to be beyond that. She seems to be saying there's a reasonable doubt I'm not a tracker, which is just silly given how easy it is to prove that I am. If I was scum, wouldn't the easy play just be to say I don't have breadcrumbs? It makes no sense that I'd be one of the few (only?) people to crumb my all my actions so far if I was trying to be less than transparent.

VPB what were your thoughts during the tracker clusterfuck yesterday? Did you think any claims were particularly likely to come from town b/c of the way they came out? What did you think of AGar's mystery track at the time?

Well initially I was like "sweet, kmd is caught." Then AGar immediately had the same reaction as me so I briefly thought, "well maybe there are 2 scum and 2 town trackers." I had kind of thought maybe you had picked up on a crumb of mine when you said something like "what if there are multiple trackers in the game." So AGar felt pretty town to me right away, so I didn't really care about him withholding info at that point. Seemed plausible he thought that was helpful to town. Also, GC claimed unprompted, which felt kind of town. Then things escalated and I was less sure what to think, but I still generally trust my instincts as it went down.

My speculation is that scum may have known there were multiple trackers in the game. We know they had Auro. They could also have a second. We also don't know what kind of revelations they had. Did they know from the start town have trackers too? I've been thinking about what my play would be if I was scum and I lost two team members from the start. I think scum play might become increasingly risky, given the deficit. That means I can't rule out scum might lean into a mass tracker claim. But overall, still think kmd is the least town of that crowd.

how about this: two trackers agree right here to agree to track vi. they can't both die.

that still leaves three trackers to do whatever, which as we've all admitted is basically nothing anyways

Happy to be the second on this if needed.

[VP Baltar]

Which of the 5 tracker claims do you doubt is a tracker? Just VPB?

I think either of the two who offered to track Vi have a higher likelihood of being scum.

(Bear in mind VP Baltar just seamlessly transitioned from "Me fake claiming is risky because I could get caught tomorrow based on who I track tonight" to "Sure, I'll track the mod tonight")

You think GC and myself have a greater likelihood of being scum than kmd?

[VP Baltar]

Maybe reck is not remembering correctly when farside claimed?

Regarding tracking, I'm not thinking Blair should be devising the plan. I'm happy to do whatever, but Blair is out to lunch and not above the suspicion line in my eyes. Would much rather SB/Agar be the deciders on any tracking plan.

My initial thought is two on Vi and others go as they please. There is still a possibility we can catch out a VT moving at night as well if scum don't have something to hide that. Several trackers have already been tracked to places they said they went it seems.

[VP Baltar]

Which of the 5 tracker claims do you doubt is a tracker? Just VPB?

I think either of the two who offered to track Vi have a higher likelihood of being scum.

(Bear in mind VP Baltar just seamlessly transitioned from "Me fake claiming is risky because I could get caught tomorrow based on who I track tonight" to "Sure, I'll track the mod tonight")

You think GC and myself have a greater likelihood of being scum than kmd?

[VP Baltar]

VPB, who are we voting today?

I want to do some gut check rereading before deciding.

[VP Baltar]

also something is bugging me about starbuck's revelation but i can't put a finger on it. like the mod straight up just put a role in that nails scum for free? really? it's like even more powerful than a cop tbh.

Wait so you believe farside but doubt Starbuck? You are confusing me man.

I think one (or possibly more with AbR?) pieces of free info to town seems fair in game where all the town PRs are basically yakety sax.

Also, you're saying your info basically only helps town and puppy's is semi suspicious. Doesn't seem OP to me at all.

[VP Baltar]

VOTE: Blair

I wanted to go back and read her actions around Farside to make sure I was not misremembering, but Blair's play this game has been atrocious. She actively avoided both the Auro and farside wagons, even when evidence piled up. It strikes me as pretty illogical play coming from a fairly illogical player. She's used self-meta to defend against this, but I don't really buy that this game is like any other game. I think everyone in this game is a really unique personality and nobody is a doormat. I think scum is struggling to run this game because the town players are just so damn town. Blair has also made several arguments against people that seem like they are not really reading the game and context closely to really assess where people are coming from (Starbuck, ABR, my claim, etc.)

The best points Blair has made all game are against Reck's info, but Reck could just be difficult..soo

[VP Baltar]

It strikes me as pretty illogical play coming from a fairly illogical player

#rude

TYPO. illogical play from a

logical

player

[VP Baltar]

You don't get to label my play in this game atrocious based on me opposing two scum lynches unless there's an actual ~reason~ why my opposition was scummy independent of the flip.

I think I laid out a very clear case why Auro was scum D1. His play also became increasingly erratic and nonsensical as pressure mounted on him. I'd expect you to be good with yeeting that.

On Farside, it was 50/50 with Porkens...and then she claimed a BS "never gonna tell you" revelation, which you seem to think was scummy (correct me if I'm wrong). I'm not saying you necessarily HAD to flip over there, but you just kind of camped on Porkens and again avoided what looked like flailing from Farside.

I'm reading you as the type of person with a highly attuned BS meter, so why would you not pick up on those things? I guess that's also what I mean by illogical play from a logical player.

I feel like I've been periodically poking you for a good amount of the game, saying "hey try harder because your play doesn't look great," and the line of 'let me get to 7 and then you'll be wow'ed' doesn't do a lot for me.

[VP Baltar]

Tell ya what, if you get roasted today then I'll be the 3rd tracker on Vi. If you could maybe take a break from responding to everything and everybody for a bit tomorrow and just read over reck's play from before this game day and say what you like and don't like about it I'd appreciate it.

I agree with this.

It also just doesn't fit for me that you are basing your reck case off this when you ignored farside's same action. If there is more to reck, explain it.

[VP Baltar]

Wasn't morning tweet run up for being wrong on reads too?

She was within the PoE, for me, and I appreciate that being resolved. On top of that, chkflp had an opportunity to redeem the slot and chose to add a bunch of spam to the thread. I'm not sad about removing that element.

Also chkflip started to imply he had a PR after MT had already said she was vanilla. I would yeet that 1000 times.


Pedit - it is about how you arrive at those wrong reads. Everyone can be wrong, but if you have specious reasoning for getting there, that's scummy.

[VP Baltar]

No random kills seems to mean trackers work, which is game over for scum. Don't really get liking them?

[VP Baltar]

UNVOTE:

Coming in after a long day and uh WTF

[VP Baltar]

My opinion is if there is ANYTHING else that you haven't shared except for who specifically has the calamity trigger, share it now so we can be done trickling out information and wasting several days on speculative bullshit

also, if YOU have the calamity trigger and not another player, claim that now because 'teehee it was me the whole time' is not going to be an acceptable answer at any time past today when you should have claimed that instead of just saying you were VT with a revelation and saved us literal days of time.

Gamma is my favorite.

[VP Baltar]

I mean, seems like the calamity trigger thing is either Puppy or Reck. If yeeting one of them fixes kill mechanics so tracking works, I'm 100% on board with this.

I am 100% not on board with us speculating on this for pages on end.

The only possible downside i can see is the trigger fixing the trackers, but introducing some new terrible effect. But then again, if kills are random or semi-random, the trigger holder could eat it on any night.

[VP Baltar]

Puppy, so your revelation is three parts?

Do you think your demise guarantees the end of the tracker-hamper?

[VP Baltar]

Also, is UT always this salty about everything? It feels manufactured.

This isn't a terrible point, actually.

On puppy, I do think he's town. I guess we need to decide if wasting a misyeet is worth it to stop the madness. We're all just WIFOMing the setup at this point. I am open to taking that chance, but also would be fine with a Blair, kmd or UT yeet in that order.

[VP Baltar]

it is blowing my fucking mind right now that anyone is saying "let's just let this army of trackers be completely useless"

Well yeah, I agree with that. You have to admit though, there is a potential risk, regardless of what you think puppy's alignment is.

And it's even harder if you're asking people who think he is town to just policy yeet him for *fingers crossed*

[VP Baltar]

it is blowing my fucking mind right now that anyone is saying "let's just let this army of trackers be completely useless"

Well yeah, I agree with that. You have to admit though, there is a potential risk, regardless of what you think puppy's alignment is.

And it's even harder if you're asking people who think he is town to just policy yeet him for *fingers crossed*

and you just not bothered at all by the behavior around the four separate installments of claiming this information?

It was certainly not helpful. I'm not sure it is AI.

I think your much better point may actually be this question about puppy thinking everyone wanted random kills. Talk to me more about what you saw in puppy's posts you found scummy

[VP Baltar]

Also prodded. Have only been able to mildly pay attention because work is crazy with the news out of Portland. Willing to hammer.

[VP Baltar]

Can confirm Vi targeted Agar last night.

Just a heads up to you all that because of what's going on in Portland right now, my play is going to be severely limited. I haven't done any rereading overnight. I will do my best to participate because replacing out at this point is a burden, and I can reasonably still read along and contribute as time allows. You will likely see a downtick in my posting though, so heads up.

Gamewise, I think UT/reck makes the most sense probably. Still possible Blair went hambone super bus in a last ditch to save this game for scum, but that's a tinfoil theory at this point.

[VP Baltar]

vote: UT

While I can agree that 3/4 kills benefits scum, I have a harder time believing that puppy was that far out there in a gambit

[VP Baltar]

@VPB- who did you track last night? There was a plan for both GC and you to target me but UT decided to hammer himself before we could confirm that you were on-board with it.

There was a plan? I totally missed that (though I had barely read anything after my vote and when I came back UT was dead).

I targeted Vi again last night because I felt like I should double check what Puppy was saying after the Agar kill, which didn't feel random. Felt like maybe Puppy was some type of player who could bus drive or deflect kills somehow through Vi...but could maybe also choose NKs? I was hoping I wouldn't see Vi visit the kill and then I could definitely say Puppy was lying. GC kill doesn't feel random if the plan was to have him and me target, but Vi did indeed target him last night ... So idk

[VP Baltar]

I am sorry my friend
VOTE: VP Baltar

I also bailed on the plan and tracked you. I got a result of you visiting no-one.

Um, that's bullshit.

VOTE: gamma

I 100% did visit Vi last night.

[VP Baltar]

Actually, this makes zero sense.

unvote

I don't know what gamma would get by lying about me because it would be obvious when I flip town he lied.

But at the same time, I don't understand why you'd say I'm scum if you said I was going nowhere. Like, I couldn't have done a kill if I was scum and went nowhere? I'm not even following your logic here

[VP Baltar]

I guess it's also worth mentioning that I think VPB's 'watch' breadcrumb d1 is at least slightly sketch

THANK YOU

Y'all can misyeet me if you want, but you are definitely wrong and makes zero sense for me to bring on myself if it was actually fake.

[VP Baltar]

Problem is I actually tracked Vi to the kill last night. I don't know what is going on with your result...but it's not right

[VP Baltar]

Vote:Vi

don't think this will do anything, but we may as well push it over the edge for funsies

[VP Baltar]

So VP Baltar claims he succeeded in tracking Vi, and received a result. (VP Baltar was not roleblocked)

Gamma claims he successfully tracked VP Baltar, and received a contradictory result. (Gamma was not roleblocked)

Gamma claims he has received the same result for all of his investigations.

I only see four possibilities:

1. Gamma is a non-sane Tracker (naive?)
   
2. Gamma's investigation was redirected, by an as-yet unclaimed role or mechanic, to a Vanilla Townie.
   
3. VP Baltar is lying scum.
   
4. Gamma is lying scum.

Am I missing anything?

That's roughly my take on it. It's also possible something affected me and prevented my results from being seen? Something related to calamity trigger? My data base of distraction roles is pretty lacking, so idk much other than what my actual result was.

FWIW, I am skeptical Gamma is scum here. The short term gain of my misyeet seems more risk than it's worth if he was the last scum. There would have been easier misyeets for him to go after than elaborate story that would end in backfire within a day or two.

[VP Baltar]

VOTE: Reck

Actually, I'm pretty comfortable with this. Don't care for the 'yolo let's just misyeet for the lolz' approach.

He's also got the secret revelation that only benefit the scum, and something weird happened last night. If his secret info explained that, he would have spilled it by now.

[VP Baltar]

Go on

[VP Baltar]

:/

[VP Baltar]

i felt like letting it be known that scum know my revelation lets me claim i have SOMETHING and also keep the mystique about it
idk i really didnt do the 4D chess involved that took into account scum couldnt kill me if they wanted to

Correct me if I'm wrong here, but weren't you still claiming this info was valuable in Xlyo post-mass/Puppy claim?

[VP Baltar]

yeah, i mean, it was a catch 22

while the info was secret, it was useful
revealing the info makes it completely not useful

so

So....what changed between then and now?

If you had made it to Xlyo, don't you think it would have looked hella suspicious to say "jk my info is garbage"?

[VP Baltar]

Try to keep up VP, geez.

Stupid is as stupid does over here!

[VP Baltar]

scum having two trackers (at least?) means they had to have had some inkling about the setup weirdness. 2 trackers is basically a big red flag saying "trackers are important in this game!" (which actually is double funny since it turns out they're not lmao)

I agree with this. Scum having two trackers is a huge red flag that they need to watch out for something.

I don't agree with hoops that Reck's revelation is townie because he claimed it. Why would scum claim their actual revelation anyhow? Best to keep that in a back pocket and make up something bullshitty, like "my revelation only helps scum." That's what farside did after all. A little truth with your lie if you are scum who knows scum have info. I think Reck messed up by trying to say his info was powerful and then realizing you can deliver on that when you have several misyeets to a win.

[VP Baltar]

I had a great time even though abusing the setup is never my strong point as scum! It's just not how I think.

I was super disappointed I got a scum PM because I was fresh off a tough scum loss. After farside got iced by the 50/50, I pretty much figured we were donezo. It didn't help the past 60 days has been hellish work.

It's actually too bad Auto got yeeted D1 instead of me. I think he would have done leveraging the setup.

Vi is the real star of the game. Super creative setup and the mass claim was a hilarious round of wtf. I enjoyed that part the most even though it seemed like a disaster for us!