Mewbie 2094 -- GAME OVER

[catboi]

I dunno I'm going to take a day to think about it

how about this, and this is why ive been so frantic today

i know you have elo choking issues and i dont think ur going to be able to stay convinced on a townread on neither bella nor luke because their isos have holes and strange moments in logic or progression that mine doesn't (i am completely fluid and have been making posts all game ik u will come to empathize with after any amount of explanation)

even ur reasons for PoEing luke earlier today were quite clearly not based on anything amazingly strong under the hood

i have the interactions and the transparency u need to form a core here and eliminate the scum team 100% of the time, so dont let me die

this will probably be my last game for at least a few months so let's just go out with a good one

one of the ppl voting me out today clearly has a vested interest in doing so, i think it has to be me + u + jpeg

(i am aware that saying this opens up the door for u to be killed over jpeg tonight which is why i didnt want to lead with it but if you vocalize a strong tr on me today i think we can win regardleas of the nk they make, unless maybe they nk me, but it would also make 0 sense for u to nk me bc i have already stated my read on you isnt moving so u could just convincingly say u wouldnt nk me and win)

those are truly all my of my cards, wp if ur scum as well

I mean realistically in the scenario where you go over I'm significantly more worried that town votes me than the other way around, but no matter

[catboi]

VOTE: lukewarm

If syugar's scum after that last page, I'm snowed.

fwiw my posting today has less to do with indecision/paralysis and more an inability to focus at all to form coherent thoughts (too easily distractible). I had points I wanted to make against luke, was slightly weirded out by syugar's posting at the start of the phase (because the thought of deflated scum had entered my head) and so backed off, wanted to take time to consider things being said before making a move.

[syugar]

I'm not gonna put up my vote for the rest of to-day but will probably vote when I wake up tomorrow

[catboi]

went to reread bella to check my bases and am ~unsure there, several posts I kind of find individually towny but nothing unaligning with GM in the grand scheme of things. I had actually felt that her wavering on GM last day phase more likely to be town-indicative, simply because I don't get why scum primes themself to bus and then hesitates in that situation - maybe if they sense the opportunity but I think I made myself clear that I wasn't going to vote cat.jpeg, ultimately

[catboi]

Spoiler:

VOTE: goldfish

A better vote.

I just want to repeat this early: a newbie game day one shouldn't last much more than ten pages

I don't love this - D1 should last until it runs out of steam or until deadline, whichever comes first. Sometimes that's page 10, sometimes it's page 25. I suspect this might be one of the longer ones but maybe that's just me.

And at both of you: Why’d you assume I was talking about scumreads first? It’s not an unreasonable assumption to make, but it is a (slightly) unnecessary one. I already know about the importance of both townreads and scumreads.

Most people mean "scumreads" when they say "reads", but you're not wrong.

I rather not bring up past games, that was weird.

This is... interesting when you immediately afterwards post 34. Granted the contexts are slightly different but it's an interesting dichotomy of thought.

@GoodMorning, why is your vote serious?

Why do you think?

VOTE: catboi

This is a serious vote.

I'd like to hear the reasoning behind this.

What do you think the reasoning is?

VOTE: catboi

This is a serious vote.

I am unfazed.

Do you think I was expecting that my vote would bother you in some way?

I sort of agree, that you need 'more info' but I think everyone has this weird double think where we know a day 1 elim is probably town and then I think sometimes momentum gets lost. I tend to find day one much easier to look back on with the Info about flips. But yes, w need some content to look back on.

[...]

It's a very nai statement to make though. Scum!Bella is happy to speed through day one and elim a townie

So you do think that 10 pages may be speedy? What makes you think momentum gets lost from second-guessing the wagons more than other factors?

I would also argue that if one's preferred wagon loses momentum, then one should consider pushing harder, but that may also just be me.

Oof, quotestriping on mobile is tedious.

I hate this post from GM.

Taking a break:

Currently don't want Bella, cat.jpeg, catboi, or syugar to be the elim.

I have possibly the most thoughts on Goodmorning of literally any slot in the game, but they are conflicting thoughts so I am having a really hard time sorting her

I would not stand in the way of any of Tidus, the worst, Takem, GM

I am probably done for the night (off to see my mom lol).

At this point, if gth I had to pick the elim it would be between goodmorning or T02.

I won't be mad about the worst or tidus going through, but I would prefer one of the other two.

I have finished my catch up.

VOTE: Tidus

The thing that I like about the ISO comment was a nice ping when I reached that point in the thread, but I did not realize that they literally fell off the face of the thread afterwards, which is definitely not a good look, and makes their in 462 worse.

I also have a worry that would be anti-town to voice currently if we were to start exploring alternative wagons.

This is what I was getting into earlier - Luke is essentially keeping GM at arm's length for all of day 1, mentioning her as a suspect and even suggesting her as a preferred elim, but never exerts any significant pressure there and winds up landing on Tidus for the elim instead. It's basically exactly how I'd expect a scum partner to handle GM.

[catboi]

Spoiler:

Also, newbie 2093 ended, so I can say that Asphodelus replaced out because she wasn't feeling into her games. So I don't think her dropping from this game is necessarily AI, and I'm not sure her being underwhelming compared to her other games is necessarily AI. I still think worst's play from Day 1 is significantly scum-motivated.

I am not feeling the worst right now, and I think that we should kill Goodmorning.

I felt off about a lot of goodmorning posts day 1.

First thing I didn't like was the repeated busy work questions that they asked in post 40. Like three in a row.

Then I liked a lot of catboi's points about them.

I felt like they got overly defensive when dealing with syugar. Particuarly the "slanders and lies" line.

It also stood out to me that they kept doing a page number reference thing in their posts. Like, a lot.

Page 5

Page 6 (and the top of page 7)

Page 8:

Page 9:

Page 13

Page 14

Page 15:

Through 17:

Through 19:

Through present

Seeing it, I really didn't like it on a gut level. Especially as it kept happening. I went back and checked their iso in their last couple games over night, and I did not see this in any of them. Like, not a single post doing it. Much less how many times it happened here.

I feel like I think it could be because they are self conscious, and feel the need to clarify their posts.

I'm holding off my vote until we decide if we are doing the popcorn thing.

The other thing that doesn't make sense to me right now is the worst hinself.

Bunch of quotes:

VOTE: Lukewarm good counterwagon, thanks.

naw nevermind
VOTE: catboi

I'm not convinced by the Tidus townread. I'm not convinced by the rate in which your confidence grew. I'm not convinced that your reads are "tidus town, nothing else worth actioning" (though understand this might be partially tainted by your being absent). I don't buy that your response to being called out on TMI reads is "I would NEVER!!! do that as scum". Just not sitting right with me at all.

Would still probably do Tidus but I'll concede it's largely because he's ignored all of the actionable calls to play the game. Which isn't a reason I'd like to use in a newbie game. But deadline pressure is what it is.

To expand a little I guess.

- I think scum are incentivised to win credit by looking like they knew better than the d1 town. I think it's actually instinctive for scum to double down on unpopular but correct reads.
- I think having syugar and I uncertain on Tidus and pushing there because of deadline pressure creates a good opportunity to move against us on a tidus townflip.
- I think catboi not having pushed elsewhere is a more a symptom of not having time to do so, than a symptom of not having an agenda. I doubt that it's a reliable indicator of catboi's alignment.
- it's also just really hard to guess what wagon would or wouldn't gain traction in this gamestate!!

allowing that if Tidus is scum his partner would likely be trying to come out of this looking good. I'm not totally sure exactly what that means, and it's rich with wifom. Just, like, if we hit tidus today and he's red don't look for his partners in the obvious places. I'm also not really sure how many people out of 100 just immediately bus a newbie partner.

Walk me through this.

You saw me make this argument.
You voted me.
You then made the exact same argument that I made.
You then seemed to think I was the scummiest player at the start of day (based off suggesting I start the popcorn).

If you think I am scum, why are you not questioning the argument that I am making? If you think the argument is Good and Valid, why are you not reevaluating me based on through fact that we appear to be thinking about the game the same way?

In favour of mass claim, popcorn is fine, suggest Luke goes first

Also, newbie 2093 ended, so I can say that Asphodelus replaced out because she wasn't feeling into her games. So I don't think her dropping from this game is necessarily AI, and I'm not sure her being underwhelming compared to her other games is necessarily AI. I still think worst's play from Day 1 is significantly scum-motivated.

I am not feeling the worst right now, and I think that we should kill Goodmorning.

I felt off about a lot of goodmorning posts day 1.

First thing I didn't like was the repeated busy work questions that they asked in post 40. Like three in a row.

Then I liked a lot of catboi's points about them.

I felt like they got overly defensive when dealing with syugar. Particuarly the "slanders and lies" line.

It also stood out to me that they kept doing a page number reference thing in their posts. Like, a lot.

Page 5

Page 6 (and the top of page 7)

Page 8:

Page 9:

Page 13

Page 14

Page 15:

Through 17:

Through 19:

Through present

Seeing it, I really didn't like it on a gut level. Especially as it kept happening. I went back and checked their iso in their last couple games over night, and I did not see this in any of them. Like, not a single post doing it. Much less how many times it happened here.

I feel like I think it could be because they are self conscious, and feel the need to clarify their posts.

I'm holding off my vote until we decide if we are doing the popcorn thing.

i have several concerns & like where this is going

VOTE: goodmorning

I'm also p lost and don't think I'm goanna have a comfortable solve until we have some more flips! I think gm wagon has probably been waiting to happen for a while and I was a reason it didn't and I feel dumb about it so seeing where this goes.

Luke vote is good and I stared into my soul for a long moment wondering whether to join but I like GM better

If you think I'm scummy, why are you not questioning the direction I am trying to lead the thread?
And if you think i am leading the thread in a good direction, why are you not reevaluating me based on the fact that we seem to, repeatedly now, viewed the game the same way?

I think the only other thing for me to address is @Luke:
1. You clearly haven't been actually reading my posts if you're bringing "lies and slander" back up again.
2. What makes you think those were "busywork" questions instead of, I don't know, actual questions?
3. You wouldn't have noticed that over my "last couple games", since it's usually something I do when I get behind/replace in to games. My last game i was one of the more prolific posters, and the games before that were when I was in the process of site flaking 6 years ago and did not give a single shit about staying informed.

Anyway, more reads stuff later when I can be bothered but suffice it to say catboi may actually be Town. When I reread the game just for content and not tone, there was nothing in his posts to dislike. Also I figured out what I didn't like about Cat using the same words as me - mirroring can be used to buddy (& is the most common method of irl buddying, intentional and otherwise). Whether that means anything here is still undecided.

Wow, there are exactly 0 scummy things about my wagon. Completely normal and very cool, nothing suspect whatsoever.

This game has been so exhausting and unfun. Frankly I'm just about ready to die.

VOTE: worst

I still think T02 is Town and I understand where catboi is coming from already even if it's a very misguided place. worst's hop onto my wagon is l a z y in a way that feels like a scumclaim.

But, y'know, go ahead and run me up, it'll be a great time.

And good morning, why are you calling the wagon scummy, but only calling 1 person suspicious for it?

And why are you only evaluating the people who actively voted, and not the other people who scum read you?

Like, I was the one who said we should elim you, but I'm not on your list of people you needed to sort whether I was scum angling for your miselim?

I think Bella also scum reads you (not gonna double check this at the moment)

I have a poe of catboi, gm, the worst, and t02 and that has too many names in it, especially since i appear to be in multiple people poes, so that means we have too many miselim options in the player list.

I need the townies in that group to come town it up.

---

I didn't grab stuff on T02, but I was largely uninspired by their day 1, and they seemed to promise more going into day 2 because irl stuff was happening day 1, and it simply hasn't happened. So far they have voiced a scum read on gm, and that was it.

VOTE: The Worst

I went back through his iso, and I am having a hard time seeing the worst plays from the pov of a VT.

His "anyone is better then me" approach to the game, and the post about not hammering him without a claim made me feel like he had to be a pr or scum, and apparently he is not a PR. I don't think that you accidentally get half the lobby to think that you are a PR, so I think that it was deliberate to try and get through day 1.

---

In general all of his reads/votes look like they are chosen just based on what looks like it will go through. Here are his votes in, reverse order:

1) Goodmorning

He votes good morning in 688. this comes immediately after I suggested we push GM and catboi votes. This is a 180 of his read of GM.

The most recent post he made about goodmorning prior to that was 407, where he was town reading them (and has been for a while. expressed a town read in 331, 322)

I think I need to read some ISO's but right now tentative TRs on Goldfish, Goodmorning, and Notajumble (though i would like them to post some more)

pretty keen to hear more on why you townread any of these 3? I can see one of them kinda

I think I need to read some ISO's but right now tentative TRs on Goldfish, Goodmorning, and Notajumble (though i would like them to post some more)

to elaborate, Goldfish seems town to me due to how little she has posted, as town and mafia she usually posts a lot so its odd in general she isnt posting as much but I do feel its a town thing because as mafia she would probably be trying control the game a bit more and subtly buddying people.

goodmorning combatively pointing out how being combative isnt a town tell seems townie though might just be a play. Also something about their wallposting feels towny

With NotAJumble honestly i just have a vague town vibe so far.

So I know this isnt very solid but oh well.

what are you seeing in goodmorning which makes you think their motivation is to find town and not to undermine people accurately townreading each other? There's a dissonance between "I'd expect goldfish to be trying to steer this game" and "goodmorning is town for the way they're steering this game" - I'm not sure I see why you think the way goodmorning is tackling this game is towny?

I also kinda like goodmorning btw I'm just left a bit confused by your townread there

NAJON + goldfish reads are fine

the worst
Bellaphant
syugar
goodmorning probably?
catboi - town or cat.jpeg partner if powering thru
Takemi
Goldfish, cat.jpeg has one and I think it's cat.jpeg
tidus slot is probably just scum

maybe cat.jpeg and goldfish finding each other so quickly is a sign that there's some intangible towny energy from cat which i'm just not picking up. i also keep seeing posts from cat and thinking "huh wow i townread that" and then realising they were goodmorning posts..

i have several concerns & like where this is going

VOTE: goodmorning

He does not give any reason for why his read changed. Bella pressed him for a reason for the swap, and this was the only reason I have been able to find

I understand where catboi is coming from already even if it's a very misguided place.

Also, I thought I was your top scumread yesterday given you did nothing but votepark me yesterday? And I haven't even explained my vote?

this really concerned me as well. the "oh I reread catboi and other than tone all of his content seems fine~!!" isn't really consistent with a read re-evaluation from someone who voteparked you for the entirety of d1.

this one

I'm also holistically concerned that GM's entire read trajectory this phase is "my wagon is suspicious, let's vote the lowest hanging fruit from it" but that's hardly ground breaking.

EXCEPT, the thing he is calling scummy is something that happened after he voted, so it simply cannot be the reason he vote there.

2) Tidus

3) Catboi

Votes in post 610.

The worst was scum reading catboi for a while before this one. However, the vote did not come until it looked like he might have support. It comes 1 page after I called catboi scum. And, it also appears that his read completely dropped once more people started town reading catboi.

4)Me

Votes in 609. The most recent vote in the game before that was T02 voting me in 592. And, like catboi, this read has completely dropped. However, it seems like it dropped in response to me pushing him, and him not feeling like he had a good rebuttal (781)

Like it really looks like he saw someone vote me, so he voted me. Then he saw me call catboi scum, so he voted catboi. Then he saw catboi vote GM, he voted good morning.

Here we go again day 2: opens with "we should kill goodmorning", but no significant pressure there, even as a wagon develops.

Admittedly, everyone is kind of guilty of pivoting onto the worst when we should have gotten gm, but it feels like luke's action there is...more targeted? It's dissonant that for someone who supposedly had gm in his poe so much

more

of his attention is focused on pushing worst over goodmorning. They have their brief little exchange, he says he doesn't like gm's posts, whatever, I don't get the sense he's really trying to get GM killed as much as he is trying to look good if she gets flipped at any point

[catboi]

on a little bit of reflection, even the fos on GM at the start of day 2 oisn't all that exonerating - scum knew it was a jailkeeper setup and could very well have been anticipating the possibility that there might have been a guilty on them

[catboi]

JK-T02 means I'm mostly lost again but for now

VOTE: syugar

928 feels like trying to preempt people from scumreading his lack of content D2. I kind of set him aside as a townread and stopped caring but now I'll be going back and rereading his ISO.

Cat is looking more townish again I think. 926 and the posts leading up to it look like Town happy with a solve rather than Scum pointing it out.

Kinda sad we cant get any definite info from this but its also very fun. I think the fact that whoever you jailed both days was either mafia or the nk should be enough for us to figure it out.
Can i make a guess that at least one of the days Bella was jailed?

They both walked into this day phase, trying to push for scum reads on the jk targets.

Cat.jpeg even preempts the jk target on Bella, trying to set up the idea that it was a kill stop there.

Spoiler: Bella

@mod,.vla until monday

The worsts reads seem to be 'elim anything that isn't me'. I've not played with them much, but I don't recognize this kind of survivalist/ opportunist vibe. I'd like to see them really take ownership of a case, even if to understand their thought process.

@ the worst, you've votes everyone living apart from me, syugar and t02. You've just said you maybe town read catjpeg and catboi, but phrased in a really wooly way.
You also ignored the rest of my post. That's both you and catboi who have blatantly misrepped me now.

Spoiler: cat.jpeg

If both prs claim neither of them will definitely die (because we have a protective role) unless we have a mafia roleblocker which is a 2/5 chance. If there isn’t a roleblocker then I think its still unlikely

doctor

/

jailkeeper

will save the nk and it will be wifom thing. Bit better chance if it’s a

jailkeeper

though but still not good odds. I think the prs should claim tmr. If one of the prs dies sure we miss out on a potential conf town that they could of told us of, but on day 3 we can just look at their biggest townread from today. As for if a

jailkeeper

dies well yea their info will be lost.

About

jailkeeper

, obviously a conf mafia is more useful than a conf town but is a 'either mafia or nightkill' more useful than a conf town? im not sure but if we had a

jailkeeper

they probably picked someone with the intention of protecting them or stopping them from killing so they likely have an opinion about whether their target is town or not. I'm opposed to mass claim today unless we have a

jailkeeper

with somebody they think is scum (or a different role with a guilty but obviously you should always claim if ur that). If thats the case then the

jailkeeper

should claim then we should start popcorning after that. I don't think its good to have only one of the prs claiming, it should be all or none based off of what happened in my last game where scum claimed tracker, a role that was compatible with both real prs so neither counterclaimed. Anyway if none of the prs claim we can just assume they only have conf towns. (i guess if somebody had a conf townread on the worst or GM or something that would be useful too, up to you if you want to claim on that)

Also I figured out what I didn't like about Cat using the same words as me - mirroring can be used to buddy (& is the most common method of irl buddying, intentional and otherwise). Whether that means anything here is still undecided.

I am also mirroring your pfp. Anyway I had no idea you used 'I don't love' so much until I checked your iso, it was completely subconscious. My scheming is no where near the purposefully copying mannerisms level yet. Also hate to say it but you townreading me probably wouldnt help me too much this game.

Spoiler: catboi

No deaths is good-ish. Given how stalled out things were yesterday, I was thinking that if no PRs died during the night we'd have people claim to narrow down the pool of suspects. Thoughts? (taking a page from LLD with this strategy)

Assuming it wasn't an intentional no-kill (highly unlikely), leaves the following as possible setups:

Column A & Row 1: Mafia Roleblocker, Mafia Goon, Town Cop, Town Doctor, Vanilla Townie x 5
Column A & Row 2: Mafia Roleblocker, Mafia Goon, Town Jailkeeper, Town Tracker, Vanilla Townie x 5

Column A & Row 3: Mafia Roleblocker, Mafia Goon, Town Mason x2, Vanilla Townie x 5

Column B & Row 1: Mafia Rolecop, Mafia Goon, Town Tracker, Town Friendly Neighbor, Vanilla Townie x 5

Column B & Row 2: Mafia Rolecop, Mafia Goon, Town Jailkeeper, Town Friendly Neighbor, Vanilla Townie x 5
Column B & Row 3: Mafia Rolecop, Mafia Goon, Town Tracker, Town Doctor, Vanilla Townie x 5

Column C & Row 1: Mafia Goon x 2, Town Cop, Vanilla Townie x 6

Column C & Row 2: Mafia Goon x 2, Town Jailkeeper, Vanilla Townie x 6

Column C & Row 3: Mafia Goon x 2, Town Mason x2, Vanilla Townie x 5

Also, newbie 2093 ended, so I can say that Asphodelus replaced out because she wasn't feeling into her games. So I don't think her dropping from this game is necessarily AI, and I'm not sure her being underwhelming compared to her other games is necessarily AI. I still think worst's play from Day 1 is significantly scum-motivated.

because there's confirmed to be no kill it also limits the number of possible setups, if there's a cop or tracker the investigative report is useful information that can narrow things down (or possibly just out a mafia, depending on their target). A doc save is unambiguously clear, a jailkeeper target is unfortunately ambiguous as to whether it was a save or a blocked kill but it at least gives something to discuss. I think at this point though any information is going to be useful given where we are an the amount of replacements and idleness we had to work through on Day 1.

Spoiler: goodmorning

Massclaiming makes no sense with either 8 or 7 alive. Trying to hamstring your PRs at this stage of the game in a semiopen is not correct and I will fight anyone who thinks it is. (Even LLD, and I really like LLD!)

Now, if this were an Open, it probably would be correct, but this is not an Open.

Also: in the specific Tracker scenario mentioned, where a JK claims, it would make more sense for the Tracker to claim VT so that they can continue to investigate; otherwise they are completely useless as they'd likely eat the JK N2 (i.e., not being able to do their job) and very possibly become a miselim candidate afterwards, since they wouldn't even have "innocent child" status by way of the massclaim.

I think the only other thing for me to address is @Luke:
1. You clearly haven't been actually reading my posts if you're bringing "lies and slander" back up again.
2. What makes you think those were "busywork" questions instead of, I don't know, actual questions?
3. You wouldn't have noticed that over my "last couple games", since it's usually something I do when I get behind/replace in to games. My last game i was one of the more prolific posters, and the games before that were when I was in the process of site flaking 6 years ago and did not give a single shit about staying informed.

Anyway, more reads stuff later when I can be bothered but suffice it to say catboi may actually be Town. When I reread the game just for content and not tone, there was nothing in his posts to dislike.

Also I figured out what I didn't like about Cat using the same words as me - mirroring can be used to buddy (& is the most common method of irl buddying, intentional and otherwise). Whether that means anything here is still undecided.

Spoiler: syugar

No deaths is good-ish. Given how stalled out things were yesterday, I was thinking that if no PRs died during the night we'd have people claim to narrow down the pool of suspects. Thoughts? (taking a page from LLD with this strategy)

I am not opposed to this, i dont think? LLD convinced me that day 2 popcorn pr claims is good in general a while back - but I have not thought a out whether a lack of kill affects that at all.

nope not with 8 alive

slank cover til tomorrow, dont know what to say

theres no massing with 8 people it makes sense with 7 imo

in that sense it sucks no one died

catboi, t02, bella i believe to be town, squabbling over who else gets elim i dont particularly care, still

Because we opened the day up by immediately talking about mass claiming or not, I feel like its odd looking at everyone's entrances, because it seems to basically boil down to post on whether they agree or disagree with the mass claim for the most part - except for bella who was vla then skipped to talking about the worst.

It looks like me and catboi were pro massclaim, and everyone else was anti. That does mean that as a minimum one scum was against the mass claim, and I think that actually makes sense given the worry that there might be a floating guilty out there on them. This is another reason to think catboi is town here.

I think that the scum team would hope that the jk could be night killed without outing their target - which coincidentally, is something that cat.jpeg said explicitly "As for if a jailkeeper dies well yea their info will be lost."

I also noticed that cat.jpeg spent a lot of time talking explicitly about the jailkeeper possibility. Like says doc exactly once as part of a "doctor/jailkeeper" and then proceeds to talk about jailkeeper for the rest of the post.

Goodmorning on the other hand spent a lot of time talking about a tracker + JK combo, which I feel like could be setting up for a fake claim down the line.

I also highlighted goodmorning's comment about cat.jpeg, which feels awkward? And also surprising that goodmorning is now walking into day 3 with a cat.jpeg town read.

I am feeling a lot better about the gm+cat.jpeg solve atm. They both walked into day 2 against the mass claim, because they were worried about a guilty on one of them. Goodmorning's comment also looks like an awkward attemt to distance from cat.jpeg - which would make sense if GM is worried about having a guilty on them.

----

Something else I noticed toDay was this line

i am partial to elimming jpeg first for a possible jk clear

I don't follow, what jk clear do you get from killing jpeg first instead of gm?

The way he latches on to syugar suggesting a team of jpeg/gm but stays parked on gm doesn't make a ton of logical sense - realistically I'm not sure

why

he resists the cat.jpeg vote if he believes that's the team but it makes more sense if he's trying to position himself on the "correct" vote yesterday and is wary of being suspected for leaping off of gm

[catboi]

RE: the Goldfish stuff: I really need to see more from both Goldfish and Cat to read either of those slots at this point.

Meant to say this in my previous post but I have a decent TR on Numbers atm. Most posts seem to be looking at the game from a Town perspective.

Page 6 (and the top of page 7) is way more feelings than quotes, thank goodness for that:

^ good posting from the fish

I'm a little surprised, after reading the full page I'm still stuck on full null on Goldfish. I'm pretty underwhelmed by the reads post, none of them feel super original with the exception of the T02 read I guess? But I do think her interactions with Cat feel better than theirs with her. I also appreciated the abbreviated reaction test.

Expanding on that:
I'm strongly beginning to believe that Cat's continual assertions that Goldfish is buddying are actually projection. They look like they're trying to hide behind past history a little too much for my liking, and I'm also not seeing as much interaction with the rest of the game as I would like.

@catboi:
A. It is absolutely not still RVS.
B. if someone makes a bad argument to FoS you, an argument that feels, let's say, deceptive... you expect a town player to ignore it and not point out that deceptive behavior, despite the fact that deceptive behavior is sometimes a scumtell?

syugar: just saw your latest post to me, I'll respond to it as soon as I can. I am currently posting from work and my lunch ended 45 minutes ago

Do not like 171 from Goldfish at all. Feels very Nixon.

You let people float on by and say that it's understandable they haven't done anything, and now I'm having issues finding any townreads at all.

VOTE: Takemikazuchi02

Despite the thread blowing up, all of T02's recent posts are just about himself. When asked about the rest of the thread, didn't even respond.

I think a lot of the game feels fragmented for this reason - T02 and Numbers are each almost a party of one, and Cat and Goldfish feel like a party of two, plus the limited interaction from Ash, so really there are only 4 slots interacting with other slots regularly.

Reads, since I asked, on a spectrum from most Town to least (gaps indicate gaps in level of seriousness):

syugar

Numbers

Bella
(1/2 gap)

Goldfish

T02
Cat

Ash

catboi

Feel free to ask about any of these.

kind of notable - won't give a substantive read on goldfish, says she doesn't like a goldfish post, but still has goldfish 4th from the top in her reads list?

[catboi]

Spoiler:

Through 19:

Elaborate please.

Why are you asking me to elaborate on things I already explained?

Because I don't feel satisfied by the level of explanation.

VOTE: numbers

I don't like how you've been playing the returning player card since the start of the game.

VOTE: T02.

I don't like how you [insert random thing about someone that isn't related to the game in hand] since the start of the game.

This feels confrontational in a way that I would not expect newbie scum to be so early in the game.

What! Is going on with this game! If I never see the word "confrontational" again it will be too soon!

Just know that you probably won't get very much information if I am eliminated, if we eliminate T02 or Cat.jpeg, even if whichever one is eliminated isn't scum, we get some information out of it due to their reads, and I would say there may be a good chance of either of them being scum

Consider me like fourthing that this is an awful look. Doing nothing is not the defense you think it is!

I have a question I want answered before the day ends. To the people that townread me, why exactly?

It's a townleanish thing rather than a full townread for me, and it's completely meta. Once you got engaged with the game, you pretty immediately started to feel like you did in our previous game.

Through present:

My issue was I didn't like syugars posting, then I didn't like GM's response, then I didn't like how catboi called syugars posting town! I'm liking catbois progression much more.

I think in particular w/r/t syugar I've seen other players take that kind of aggressive approach where they seem to fos a lot of people on entry and gotten wary of it because of how wide their suspicion seemed to be, but the player ended up being town anyway. Just think stylistically the scattered approach is more likely to be town where scum faking aggression take a narrow-tunnel approach


If I assemble my vague townish feelings together, I have Cat.Jpeg (feel very good about this one), goldfish, bella, and syugar. It's possible I'm wrong on one of these because it's earrly, but if it

is

true it would mean all the scum would be in GM, Ash, T02, and jumble. Which feels...plausible?

Catboi, what moved TO2 into your scum pile, given you seemed to town read their entrance?

Another thought that I had about this post, is that cat.jpeg going from "the person catboi was voting" to his single highest town read is probably + town for him.

I drew the opposite conclusion from this - he doesn't seem to have had any real reason to change his mind at that point, none of what Cat was doing in between the vote and unvote was AI, so either the vote was fake or the unvote was, imo. What about it makes you think it improves the likelihood of catboi being town?

Not a big fan of the fact that the worst seems to be one of your top scum reads (they were in all three of your alternative scum team options), but you don't have what slot they are sorted out in your head.

This is not a bad point, and syugar's response to it was not great.

I tend to agree that if I'm right on Tidus, on the balance of probabilities I'm wrong on cat.

I'm a bit [username joke] on Lukewarm's contributions so far. I still find it jarring very few people are acknowledging Tidus' existence. It's like we're living in FFX-2.

I don't find it that weird that people would forget the existence of a player who seems that determined to make 0 contribution to the thread, but maybe that's just me.

Massclaiming makes no sense with either 8 or 7 alive. Trying to hamstring your PRs at this stage of the game in a semiopen is not correct and I will fight anyone who thinks it is. (Even LLD, and I really like LLD!)

Now, if this were an Open, it probably would be correct, but this is not an Open.

Also: in the specific Tracker scenario mentioned, where a JK claims, it would make more sense for the Tracker to claim VT so that they can continue to investigate; otherwise they are completely useless as they'd likely eat the JK N2 (i.e., not being able to do their job) and very possibly become a miselim candidate afterwards, since they wouldn't even have "innocent child" status by way of the massclaim.

I think the only other thing for me to address is @Luke:
1. You clearly haven't been actually reading my posts if you're bringing "lies and slander" back up again.
2. What makes you think those were "busywork" questions instead of, I don't know, actual questions?
3. You wouldn't have noticed that over my "last couple games", since it's usually something I do when I get behind/replace in to games. My last game i was one of the more prolific posters, and the games before that were when I was in the process of site flaking 6 years ago and did not give a single shit about staying informed.

Anyway, more reads stuff later when I can be bothered but suffice it to say catboi may actually be Town. When I reread the game just for content and not tone, there was nothing in his posts to dislike. Also I figured out what I didn't like about Cat using the same words as me - mirroring can be used to buddy (& is the most common method of irl buddying, intentional and otherwise). Whether that means anything here is still undecided.

I understand where catboi is coming from already even if it's a very misguided place.

Also, I thought I was your top scumread yesterday given you did nothing but votepark me yesterday? And I haven't even explained my vote?

I took it as read that your D1 feelings carried over, since you didn't add any new reasoning. Is that not accurate?

RE: voteparking on you: I had no reads stronger than my read on you; my read on you was a fairly strong toneread, but tone reads are relatively weak. When I went back and ignored the tone things I didn't like, I felt like you were largely coming from a (very foreign to me) Town perspective rather than a Scum one. You're definitely not my strongest townread still - I kind of expect to see stronger alignment-related opinions from you (though this game has definitely been... not good for that) - but you are a townread.

I understand where catboi is coming from already even if it's a very misguided place.

Also, I thought I was your top scumread yesterday given you did nothing but votepark me yesterday? And I haven't even explained my vote?

this really concerned me as well. the "oh I reread catboi and other than tone all of his content seems fine~!!" isn't really consistent with a read re-evaluation from someone who voteparked you for the entirety of d1.

294 and 381. Literally the only thing I changed my mind about was my opinion in 381.

Not many teams make sense anymore and I don't have any clue what to do

All voters list viable worlds for who they are voting

worst has been flipping wildly through votes as though flinging things to the wall to see what might stick and has not necessarily looked genuine on some of them. Ash didn't look great either, including starting off with a justification as to why her posts might look different. I have more words than this but these should suffice to answer your question in brief.

I should say, for the record - I don't agree with anyone scumreading the "softclaim", because I didn't think it was a softclaim.

I think the only other thing for me to address is @Luke:
1. You clearly haven't been actually reading my posts if you're bringing "lies and slander" back up again.
2. What makes you think those were "busywork" questions instead of, I don't know, actual questions?
3. You wouldn't have noticed that over my "last couple games", since it's usually something I do when I get behind/replace in to games. My last game i was one of the more prolific posters, and the games before that were when I was in the process of site flaking 6 years ago and did not give a single shit about staying informed.

Anyway, more reads stuff later when I can be bothered but suffice it to say catboi may actually be Town. When I reread the game just for content and not tone, there was nothing in his posts to dislike. Also I figured out what I didn't like about Cat using the same words as me - mirroring can be used to buddy (& is the most common method of irl buddying, intentional and otherwise). Whether that means anything here is still undecided.

Wow, there are exactly 0 scummy things about my wagon. Completely normal and very cool, nothing suspect whatsoever.

This game has been so exhausting and unfun. Frankly I'm just about ready to die.

VOTE: worst

I still think T02 is Town and I understand where catboi is coming from already even if it's a very misguided place. worst's hop onto my wagon is l a z y in a way that feels like a scumclaim.

But, y'know, go ahead and run me up, it'll be a great time.

And good morning, why are you calling the wagon scummy, but only calling 1 person suspicious for it?

And why are you only evaluating the people who actively voted, and not the other people who scum read you?

Like, I was the one who said we should elim you, but I'm not on your list of people you needed to sort whether I was scum angling for your miselim?

I think Bella also scum reads you (not gonna double check this at the moment)

When a wagon springs from 0 to E-2 in one page, it's slightly more often than average Scum-involved. In that case, you look at the voters. I have townreads on both catboi and T02; I don't have one on worst, and worst's vote was also the worst vote.

RE: you: I didn't like your entry read on me, but sometimes people have difficulty catching up on a full game and improve on context once they're actually participating.

RE: Bella: we seem to be just missing each other in this game. I'm feeling a lot more confident in her being Town since the start of D2, and I also think we're starting to reach more points of agreement.

I think you may have missed saying something you meant to say in the above post, or did you accidentally quote 686 there?

I'm also holistically concerned that GM's entire read trajectory this phase is "my wagon is suspicious, let's vote the lowest hanging fruit from it" but that's hardly ground breaking.

This phase has been going on for 4-5 pages which were mostly arguing about massclaiming and I have two posts (this is #3). What trajectory are you looking for with that kind of sample size?

--

Why is everyone doing associatives before flips? With 8 alive?? Seriously. Stop it, get some help.

I am still very anti massclaim (it clearly will provide more info to Scum than it will to Town) but will bow to the will of the 3 UTs - let me know if you're still inclined to see this through or not.

That said, at 2.5 days remaining I'm also not sure there's really time for it.

In the meantime:

@Luke 805: I'm not sure I understand your point. It's not automatically scummy for someone to scumread me, I'm not [player name redacted for obvious reasons]. Did you want me to fight with you? I'm not really in the mood for that atm.

While we're waiting for gm to answer, I'd like to point out that Bella, Syugar, Luke and Catboi all voted for tidus and worst and I'm confident both mafs are among those 4.

While we're waiting for gm to answer, I'd like to point out that I don't like this post.

Agree with this and the subsequent reasoning, regardless of T02's PR claim.

--

In the interests of keeping this game moving I'm vt. Don't have time for anything else tonight but I have plenty of anything else to discuss.

Cat is looking more townish again I think. 926 and the posts leading up to it look like Town happy with a solve rather than Scum pointing it out.

What does this even mean?

Also I want to pint out mafia would have known we had just one pr and it was a jailkeeper from the start of day 2 because they knew we were in the C column and there was a protective role. Idk if that helps with anything but im glad we didnt claim yesterday.

What makes this "Town happy with a solve" vs "scum pointing it out?"

Town and scum would both know it at the point that they made that post. Its not even a solve

Well, no, it's not literally a solve, it's a "yay, we know what the setup is now", but solve is quicker to write. Scum would have known the setup already (as Cat points out), and this feels like genuine new excitement which Scum would not have. I also don't think that newer scum would necessarily want to draw attention to what the scum would have known at any given time.

I found something interesting while skimming through the thread. At the end of day 1 652, gm miscounted the votes and dropped what he thought was the hammer vote on tidus(Tidus already got hammered at the time)
This means that 5 of the 6 uncleared players are involved in both miselim wagons.

You... might want to read my post again if this is what you think happened. I quite literally said I was voting just in case there had been a miscount, not that I thought that was likely.

I want everyone to share their reads list.
This day is crucial and we need to share info and discuss as much as possible so don't slack off please.

Next post will be one.

That's fine, but it's the little words that matter. You said is 'suddenly' had this read on catjpeg, but it's not new at all - words like that feel very scummy to me. You call it 'suspicious' but I've just shown to what my progression is and you haven't really responded, just defended yourself.

I don't know that I actually have a comment, lol - I appreciate the clarity? I think it generally makes sense and is plausible you're town just getting paranoid here.

I was only going to respond to questions/requests directed at me/everyone, but I really don't like this post. It very much feels like a setup for the "I forgive you for scumreading me, I know you have to (because you're scum and I'm now scumreading you)".

This is a shamelesspledge, was dealing with a migraine all day yesterday but hope to be able to catch up tonight.,

ur literaly dying...

I'm sorry that my inability to look at screens for more than 5 minutes inconvenienced you! Next time I'll just tell my brain not to do that and I'm sure it'll work!!

Im not going to dignify that with a response!

Readslist, very generally:

Town
T02- confirmed by un-cc'd claim
Bella - has shown clear and transparent thought processes throughout the game, none of which seem manufactured
Luke - has been obviously attempting to solve the game, particularly today; minor issues regarding the massclaiming stuff but I think it was well-meant
Cat - started to drop some newbTown tells, including the one I pointed out earlier; while their wishy-washy reads tend to look scummy, those also can be an indication of lost newbTown
catboi - I don't know anymore; I think one way then I think the other way. Fairly sure we've been of opposing mindsets and moods throughout
syugar - has a lot of posts but not a lot of content; as soon as he started being widely townread, he stopped trying altogether. His early posts today looked very much like someone trying to set up against a soft guilty
Scum

If anyone wants any clarification, let me know.

And then on luke - there's a handful of interactions, but gm never,

ever

gives anything resembling a substantive read on luke prior to her final readslist, which we can rightly wipe off the table. there's all these little bits of faux-tension and questioning each other but I have to say it doesn't feel nearly as pointed as gm got with syugar early in the game. It just makes significantly more sense as teammate distancing to me.

[Malakittens]

Votecount 4.02

syugar: (2) Lukewarm bellaphant
Lukewarm: (1) catboi

Not Voting (2): cat.jpeg, syugar

With 5 alive it takes 3 to Eliminate.

Day 4 deadline is in (expired on 2022-06-03 01:30:00)

[syugar]

i atempt to stay awake til 10pm today but pasing out cant read anything or stay awake sorry

[Lukewarm]

Spoiler:

I used some pretty mediocre examples, as I wrongly assumed that people had similar mechanical preferences to me and deflated my own case, but I can use better examples for the Luke read. Those examples can simply be reads from today. I hate writing walls but here we go.

Luke's approach to the game is what I'd call

cerebrally inconsistent

. When you try to piece together reads and statements he has made, it almost seems like they're coming from different players. I posit the first example, his justification for townreading catboi today:

it has to me or syugar from your pov. What sounds more likely?.

I don't know, that's the problem. I will need to reread the two of you sometime that it is not 4:30 am.

But I was thinking about how day 2 played out, and I am really struggling to see that come from partnered gm and catboi.

His literal first post of day 2 was advocating strongly for a mass claim, specifically in a way that would appeal to me (by referencing a conversation he knew I had with LLD), and then he proceeded to argue why he thought it was the best move.

And gm was then The Reason the massclaim didn't happen, both by arguing against it and then refusing to do it when we started.

This is such a specific dissonance that I don't see them together. To be clear it is not just because they disagreed, that was the fact that the entire idea came from catboi, so I don't think this would apply to anyone else (including me).

Like how would that scum team have gotten there? Did they not talk at all? This doesn't match what I've seen of catboi in scum chats - when I read his scum chat for fgo, I felt like there was a lot of collaboration and suggestions to his partners.

He argued for it too much if he didn't actually want it to happen, and GM argued against it too hard if they actually did want it to happen

Is it a scum team that thought the mass claim would help them? GM's play makes no sense
Was it a scum team that thought the mass claim would hurt them? Catbois play makes no sense

That would just leave a team that thought it wouldn't matter either way, but then I don't think catboi leads with it and keeps arguing for it when there is push back.

I just can't see it

This read is ridiculously nuanced. I also think it's bad, but that isn't really necessary so I'll come back to it later. This read is so nuanced, assumptive, and pedantic that I'll call it "Level 3". I want to rank these reads on levels. To paraphase this read in a short way, he said this:

"Because catboi is an excellent scum player who collaborates with his teammates a lot, it seems impossible to me that he and his partner could have different opinions on a massclaim, especially because catboi suggested it; he seemed intent on this massclaim going through, and gm seemed like the opposite. This is unlikely, as either massclaiming or not must have been seen by his team as optimal and thus if they were teammates they would share the same opinion on the massclaim."

Wow. That's a lot. He's taking into account meta, how he thinks the scumteam would talk to eachother, mechanical facts etc etc. to paint a picture that catboi must be town here. This makes sense; the isos are so competitive and towny today that we need a bit of extra special sauce to figure them out. Compare that to how he opened the day:

My gut reaction is to omgus catboi, but also because he seems to have that angle to push me ready to go, when for all we knew there was not going to be a kill.

If the read above was

Level 3

, this is

Level 0

. Keep in mind that the read above assumes that catboi is an extremely deft and competent scum player (which he is, he won awards yadda yadda).

The first part of this read that makes it Level 0 is that it doesn't make sense. He thinks that when the day opens like this, scum must have known that there would be a kill and thus had something prepared. What he doesn't take into account is that townies could reread over the night and form theories for two reasons:

1) If there's no kill, the game very likely ends instantly. I don't need to do anything else, so when I reread tonight I should be reading with the contingency that jpeg gets cleared and look for another suspect.
2) If there's no kill, there may have been an NK. I want to read and develop theories that I will bring to the table regardless if we lynch cat jpeg or not just so we are bouncing ideas off of as many people as possible.

Maybe you can buy 1 (I don't, given the deftness of his earlier read), but given that Lukewarm was apparently obsessed with there being an NK to set up a false lynch for jpeg, it is surprising that he did not consider that catboi was thinking along line 2 similar to how he was overnight.

Furthermore, let's buy that Lukewarm believes 1 and 2. If that's the case, catboi would have essentially slipped Remember the read from earlier where he talks about how great of a scum player catboi is? If this is his true opinion on catboi, it is very difficult to believe that he would buy catboi would be that careless as scum as to not consider how his opening would make him feel perceived.

What's the point of dissecting this?

It's a fake progression

(ostensibly). This reaction to catboi's opening and the later extremely nuanced reads are incompatible. Level 3 players who are deep into the meta reads to justify specious townreads will not make thoughtless reads that don't take into account any meta perception of the player's skill level an hour before that. What?

Here are more reads I consider Level 1 from today and why:

I am comparing that to Bella's entrance of disagreeing with catboi's read on me, then accepting my town read on catboi, and engaging with me in a way that was accepting of me thinking of the game as it having to be between syugar and/or Bella, which is a losing strategy to start the day with imo

This is his justification for townreading Bella. Let me rephrase it without the fluff:

"Bella came into the day with reads. She interacted with my read. Then she acknowledged that if I townread catboi, fmpov it has to be her or syugar (basic logic that isn't even a comment on anything in the game other than signaling that she read what I posted). This is a losing strategy (why is that losing if you townread it? citation needed.)"

I don't actually see anything out of range for anyone who's played for as long as Bella here. If this is towny for Bella, what is Bella's scum game like? Does she have no reads? Does she not read other people's posts and engage with them? How is someone who has so much reverence for one player's scum game think that another experienced player is so incompetent that these are towny actions from them?

I think this bleeds into some of the theoretical mechanical discussion (I think that there has been talk of things that just pretty much wouldn't happen), but since people don't agree with me on that, I'm willing to drop it because it isn't really necessary to my argument.

Other things I disliked:

Let's look at his read on me:

VOTE: syugar

I don't buy syugar's progression from 1178 to voting in 1182 to not even considering scum!Bella in 1199. And I did not like his responses when I followed up.

For the first part, he doesn't explain why he finds my progression unbelievable.

For the second part, this is misrepresentative.

He's referencing this post:

that being said, the only other thing i'll offer is that if you/luke/catjpeg vote for me today, just try to sponge my townread on catboi and elim luke tomorrow

Nothing about it implies that I wasn't considering Bella ~at all~. He arbitrarily loaded that into my thought process by misinterpreting the statement I was leaning towards Luke being scum, yeah, but what he's missing is that this post is addressed to Bella. Why was this addressed to Bella? She seemed unsure on catboi's alignment and was hard townreading Luke. In a world where she is town, this has to be made known, because catjpeg is going to be killed at night and I need her to get over her paranoia on catboi and erroneous scumread on Luke. Considering it's addressed to Bella, and the three players alive would be Bella, Luke, and catboi, her voting Luke just logically follows from her accepting my townread on catboi.

This is evident in my reply:

The post I was responding to was when you said was that in 3 man elo with Luke+catboi+Bella, kill Luke.

oh yeah, i agree with myself then

u tr catboi so i dont see how u find it unreasonable, altho in a perfect world id be able to elim both u and bella

I'm trying to reach common ground with him here. "You TR catboi so I don't see how you find it unreasonable (fmpov)". It doesn't really make sense for him to scumread the fact that I townread catboi this hard considering he townreads catboi himself. Like, what?

Again, his reasoning for FoSing me feels kind of arbitrary. Looks like he saw me as the vote and needed a way to get there. He chose weird things to get hung up over and refused to empathize with it from my PoV, which is strange given how he tried to step into catboi's shoes to produce that townread on him (again).

That part of the case is done, now I want to revisit this:

it has to me or syugar from your pov. What sounds more likely?.

I don't know, that's the problem. I will need to reread the two of you sometime that it is not 4:30 am.

But I was thinking about how day 2 played out, and I am really struggling to see that come from partnered gm and catboi.

His literal first post of day 2 was advocating strongly for a mass claim, specifically in a way that would appeal to me (by referencing a conversation he knew I had with LLD), and then he proceeded to argue why he thought it was the best move.

And gm was then The Reason the massclaim didn't happen, both by arguing against it and then refusing to do it when we started.

This is such a specific dissonance that I don't see them together. To be clear it is not just because they disagreed, that was the fact that the entire idea came from catboi, so I don't think this would apply to anyone else (including me).

Like how would that scum team have gotten there? Did they not talk at all? This doesn't match what I've seen of catboi in scum chats - when I read his scum chat for fgo, I felt like there was a lot of collaboration and suggestions to his partners.

He argued for it too much if he didn't actually want it to happen, and GM argued against it too hard if they actually did want it to happen

Is it a scum team that thought the mass claim would help them? GM's play makes no sense
Was it a scum team that thought the mass claim would hurt them? Catbois play makes no sense

That would just leave a team that thought it wouldn't matter either way, but then I don't think catboi leads with it and keeps arguing for it when there is push back.

I just can't see it

This reasoning is patently forced. Think to the last time you've ever played as scum. You had a QT, or maybe you had a discord server. Have you ever planned bringing up such a topic with your partners and made sure you were aligned on it, ever? Especially for something that's been argued as town-optimal such as a massclaim? When scum strategize with eachother (at least this has always been the case for me), they think broad strokes; "these narratives about players xyz need to be pushed eventually. We need to have tension on a point in order to seem like we aren't partners. etc, stuff like that".

On top of that, even if we were to say that they planned something around the massclaim, there's nothing suggesting they wouldn't plan the opposite as a means of distancing from eachother on a fundamental level.

On top of that, we don't even know how actively they would have communicated in this hypothetical scenario. GM posted light and was quite inactive. The massclaim suggestion was somewhat off-the-cuff based on a gamestate where we didn't have a lot of information due to stagnation.

Keep in mind this is a read that flipped Luke's perceptions of catboi, so you'd think it'd have to be something pretty strong. This read takes four or five assumptions that may prove true or untrue and essentially gambles the game on them. It feels like

justification created after the read was decided

. For strategic reasons. I don't think town!Luke would find this super soul read convincing enough to carry this anti partner read. It's like... out of his own book, TMI?

I am open to discussion about either of these points, as long as you're representing them properly.

This is a lot of words to boil down to
1) Luke's first reaction to catboi's push was weak and not well thought out
2) After walking away and thinking on it a bit, he had very detailed thoughts on catboi's alignments
3) ????
4) Therefore Luke is scum.

I admit that 1 and 2 are both true.

"Luke's approach to the game is what I'd call cerebrally inconsistent. When you try to piece together reads and statements he has made, it almost seems like they're coming from different players"

First, the timing of the posts syugar grabbed were explicitly when we just walked into this day phase, and it was confirmed to me that I had been town reading scum, and that I needed to throw away my earlier town reads and try again. And that was immediately before I saw catboi pushing me since when I opened the thread up the T02 flip and catbois vote were litearlly back to back . But then as I laid in bed I was thinking back over all of the reasons that I was town reading catboi the day before, and it was hard to slot it together. -- But syugar wants people to believe that it is impossible for me, as town, to have those thoughts occur at those times.

I don't think that there is even a reason why I need to have that 180 there as scum.

---

I am grabbing some cases that I have made in other games, to show why I don't think that syugar really did meta on me and came to the conclusion "none of your reads were as empathetically specific or comprehensive as uve been doing this game so i decided it was good enough" or "that also doesn't make sense and doesn't seem like a towny thought process, you're assuming 3 chess moves in advance in a game of checkers."

Here are some of my reads from my most recenly completed town game. I am town reading SM largely based on meta I have on them and how they approach certain types of players. My town read on titus is framed in the specific word choice used when expressing a detailed idea.... And my scum read on Catboi was omgus. I could not believe that a town catboi would push me the way that catboi was pushing me that game.

[

Town

Spoiler: StrangeMatter

58
I stand by the fact that their reads list in 535 had a total of 3 names to be town indicative for them. SM was not even taking the time to flesh out most of the reasons, so could have easily put more names in there - even just copying a couple consensus reads.

I have also seen town!StangeMatter say the exact same general idea behind "Partial paranoia but he just feels like how he played in Mini 2265 and I can never get a read on him" in two separate games. Putting people down as scum leans because they bamboozled them in the past.

They did it with me here: viewtopic.php?t=88785&f=90&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

They did it another time with Dwlee here: viewtopic.php?p=13200640#p13200640

This is distinctly in line with how town!StrangeMatter thinks about slots, even if it is a strange approach.

I like 546 as well

I would be VERY surprised it StrangeMatter flips scum here. SM is a LHF player that is often misread.

Spoiler: Titus

Figured I would explain the dumb working thing about 36. It was the asynchronous way she referred to the scum team in the conclusion of each line.

then they win | then scum lose
scum win | we win

I would expect scum to be thinking more to make sure they don't mess up and say we, us, them to refer to the wrong group. (which is why, more often then not, I expect something like that to actually be a town mistype). But in trying to make sure that in this repeated if then scenario, they were actually worried about that, I would expect it to be more consistent.

So, yeah. That was my dumb reason to town read titus.

Re: the "stop voting my mason." It distinctly reminded me of her town hunting approach in a prior game. I thought it was 2226, but looking back at that game I am not seeing exactly what I was reminded of... so it must have been a different game. Not trudging through all of my games to find it.

{snip}

Scum

Spoiler: catboi

OMGUS

But for serious, I think that this is scum Catboi.

I have so many thoughts, but I feel like I am going to end up typing a thesis paper that won't convince anyone.... and I am struggling to express it in a way that is clear.

[I just typed out a rambling mess, and deleted it]

He feels like he is staking strategic positioning around people, vs naturally being in the game. I felt that way about his early interactions with Pooky (which also felt similar to the way he positioned around pooky in our Secret Hitler game), with the praetorian and mena in post 203, and with me.

His approach to me actually reminds me of scum!Prism's approach to me in our last game together, which was only the second ever time I have been miseliminated as town, so probably a good approach to have.

[omg , deleted another rambling mess.]

I am very certain in this read, but I don't think I type it out in a way that makes sense, so poo poo on me, I am actually just not good at the game.

Hey guys, if Catboi ever dies, and flips scum, probably look at Bell. If Catboi flips town, Bell can go up a couple notches on my reads list

He said it wasn't a townie thought process that I was thinking about the way that the scum team might be working together, here is a partner read built around what I perceived to be the scum plan at the time.

Spoiler:

To me, option 1 looks like a scum team that has some semblance of a plan. Option 2 looks like a scum team that is all pulling in completely opposite directions.

I don't have a ton of experience with Titus, but from what I have seen, I feel like she would have had some semblance of a plan.

I would go as far as to say that there is already evidence this game that Titus was trying to coordinate plans in the scum chat, when you look at Day 0 and see Moon Cancer, Day 0, jumping on to the Saber 4 Master campaign when Titus thought she could win the master. Then Moon doing a full 180, and calling Saber scum once Titus realized she had lost the master (and that she would probably need to bus if she wanted to regain a footing in the game)

---------------

So yeah, foreigner being scum makes more sense to me.

I would no longer say that scum!Avenger is impossible, but would need to see more evidence for it -- such as foreigner flipping town in order to give me any evidence that a counter wagon was being made by the scum team

And, there have been reads that have gone off the deep end.

Spoiler:

Subject: Mini 2230: Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night: Game Over

I am going to break down why this post implys a wildly inconsistent thought process from Titus.
This post was written at 1:18 PM est

@Annie, The reason why I played it the way I did is that it leaves scum with no good options.

Topic sentence. Titus is presenting this post as HER PLAN ALL ALONG. This is not her spur of the moment thing she did. This is "why she played it the way she did"

If we shard me and then I get enough shards to turn demonic, I am removed from the elimination pool.

If we give her a shard today, and THEN she gets enough shards to turn demonic. "Her plan all along" revolves around the idea that she needs more then one shard.

However, by not sharding me after I get sharded today, they are suggesting they want me in the elimination pool which indirectly suggests I am town.

The only move for them is to argue that I am not an FN to try and eliminate me before I get enough shards to become a demon. It forces them to tunnel me.

Not only does her plan involve getting more then 1 shard, her gambit actually HINGES on it. She gets one shard, and then forces the scum team to decide the pro/con of giving her the second shard. Like. This is the gambit she was making in asking for a shard...
This makes zero sense if Titus thought that she only needed one shard. There is no explanation that I can come up with to make this make sense.

If they do decide to demon me and then roleblock me, then that's resources that aren't spent on our investigates which means they get shots off. Plus, they'd risk being tracked and or watched as I'd be an ideal target for such investigations if they occurred.

A bit of a broken record here, but once again. "If

They

decide to demonize her following getting her first shard.

-----
Again, that post was made at 1:18 pm est.

At 1:45 pm est Titus is asked about the shard numbers that she needs

How many shards do you need to get the FN/become demonic again?

The default number. I have none now. I need to check the ruleset.

At 1:48 pm est Titus acknowledges that she originally thought that everyone needed 1 shard, but that now she is realizing that she needs 2

I'm not sure what you mean by a 1-sharder. We should all be one-sharders.

What did this mean?

I was supposing everyone only needed one shard to be demonic, since my role PM didn't say. There's talk of two shards being needed though.

At 1:51 Annie comes in with the confimation of needing 2 shards

Unless otherwise specified, a player is considered "Demonic" if they have two or more shards, otherwise, they are classified as "Human". Players may start with 0 or more shards per their role

-----

Now, jump to when Titus started talking to me.

I'm not sure when I figured it out. I was confused and probably thinking both simultaneously until Annie quoted the mod for me. There's no way I can know the exact post when I was first told. The mod got back to me right as Annie posted.

Titus claims that she became aware of the correct answer when Annie told her, which was around the same time that the mod confirmed it. So 1:51.
BUT, she outlined her whole "gambit" at 1:18. The time line does not make sense.

In Conclusion, there are major cognitive inconsistencies in her post explaining her gambit.

Subject: Mini 2230: Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night: Game Over

HYPOTHESIS.

Titus is a dirty scum bag who needs 1 shard to be turned into a demon. At the start of the day, the scum team was gunning for a shard win, and she went for it. Post change, like pooky pointed out it was less of a priority -- Every thing after that was Titus playing on the back foot

I think that pooky had her dead to rights. But Titus needed to respond, because she cannot just say "welp, you got me. I stopped caring about the shard because that stopped looking like the best way for me to win"

Que 1965. Notice She does not immediately say "pooky, you have activated my trap card," and reveal her gambit. In this post, she is just tries to talk her way out of the pooky vote. But pooky does not drop it 1966

It is not until she is unable to talk pooky out of it and it looks like he might push her, that she reveals the "gambit" see post 1970.

Also of note, 1981 Medea voting Titus did not activate her "gambit" but pooky's did. The difference? pooky is pushing her

because

of her interaction with the shard mechanic.

But now she is getting pressed about her "gambit." Pooky, the Dragons, and Annie all question her.

That is when Titus sits down and has to come up with a comprehensive outline to explain her gambit in a way that makes sense, given all of the questions. Que post 2013.

New interesting thing to note, this new detailed gambit explanation actually has nothing to do with her original slayers gambit

2028/2029/2031 is her not taking into account that she had already revealed that she only needed one shard earlier, and is now back peddling again.

Also, this seems tonally off as well:

Spoiler:

In Titus's world with her gambit, she just trapped scum!pooky

see wasn't that way easier

If I outright claim, I don't net scum. It's a small contribution but it's useful in catching opportunistic votes, which I knew would happen.

Does this sound like someone who is talking to someone who just fell for they gambit? Or is this someone scrambling to make the thread believe her fake explanation for not going for the shard?
This is TO POOKY, the person she just "caught"

[Lukewarm]

And, this is why I was pushing so hard for him to tell me what game he even read of mine to come to those conclusions.

Because it looks like he was argueing "Luke thinks about games the way that Luke thinks about game -- and therefore Luke is scum" And then he tried to back it up as a meta based read.

[
otoh i just skimmed a towngame of urs and didnt see any posts close to looking like this

But he was never even able to do that.

Specifically what game did you read.

What about that post were you looking for in that game that you say you didnt see?

some open in ur post history i forgot

none of your reads were as empathetically specific or comprehensive as uve been doing this game so i decided it was good enough

[Lukewarm]

Spoiler:

classic game where I'm onto scum early then talk myself out of it for 2 days

VOTE: lukewarm

I did a little rereading during the night. I think my reasons for un-aligning him with goodmorning were poor in hindsight. I think that both jailkeeper targets were plausibly saves, and I think both displayed a believable level of paranoia yesterday that is more likely to come from town.

not gonna lie im closer to voting bella than this lmao

i also townread catboi over everyone else atm

it has to me or syugar from your pov. What sounds more likely?.

I don't know, that's the problem. I will need to reread the two of you sometime that it is not 4:30 am.

But I was thinking about how day 2 played out, and I am really struggling to see that come from partnered gm and catboi.

His literal first post of day 2 was advocating strongly for a mass claim, specifically in a way that would appeal to me (by referencing a conversation he knew I had with LLD), and then he proceeded to argue why he thought it was the best move.

And gm was then The Reason the massclaim didn't happen, both by arguing against it and then refusing to do it when we started.

This is such a specific dissonance that I don't see them together. To be clear it is not just because they disagreed, that was the fact that the entire idea came from catboi, so I don't think this would apply to anyone else (including me).

Like how would that scum team have gotten there? Did they not talk at all? This doesn't match what I've seen of catboi in scum chats - when I read his scum chat for fgo, I felt like there was a lot of collaboration and suggestions to his partners.

He argued for it too much if he didn't actually want it to happen, and GM argued against it too hard if they actually did want it to happen

Is it a scum team that thought the mass claim would help them? GM's play makes no sense
Was it a scum team that thought the mass claim would hurt them? Catbois play makes no sense

That would just leave a team that thought it wouldn't matter either way, but then I don't think catboi leads with it and keeps arguing for it when there is push back.

I just can't see it

otoh i just skimmed a towngame of urs and didnt see any posts close to looking like this

And even looking at this progression here. He is catching up. He hits catbois vote on me, and says that he prefers Bella. He makes 1179 at 7:10. Then he makes 1190 at 7:15.

That means he had the thought on my post, looked up a recent game of mine, went through my iso to analyze my cases in that game and read them closely enough to come to the confident conclusion that I just don't make detailed nuanced cases, came back to the thread and called me scummy in 5 mins.

[Lukewarm]

And like, if he really believed everything that he said in 1317 then what was he doing when he made this comment

luke looks less partnered with gm the more i reread and talked with him today, largely for reasons i already believed in yesterday and just threw aside, i didn't really have any logical edge against him when we were arguing and his points related to yesterday's vote make sense

So, he was absolutely convinced that I was scum. Then decided that I was town. Then went back to being convinced I was scum. Both of the changes happened while I was completely out of the thread.

[Lukewarm]

And I mean absolutely convinced

its too bad u outed already with ur body of work today

to looks unpartnered, and he didn't have any "logical edge" against me when arguing

luke looks less partnered with gm the more i reread and talked with him today, largely for reasons i already believed in yesterday and just threw aside, i didn't really have any logical edge against him when we were arguing and his points related to yesterday's vote make sense

Back to seemingly convinced

What's the point of dissecting this? It's a fake progression (ostensibly). This reaction to catboi's opening and the later extremely nuanced reads are incompatible.

All while I was out of the thread and had made zero posts.

[Lukewarm]

Keep in mind this is a read that flipped Luke's perceptions of catboi, so you'd think it'd have to be something pretty strong. This read takes four or five assumptions that may prove true or untrue and essentially gambles the game on them. It feels like justification created after the read was decided. For strategic reasons. I don't think town!Luke would find this super soul read convincing enough to carry this anti partner read. It's like... out of his own book, TMI?

And even here, he sayd "for strategic reasons" without even giving a strategic reason for me to do this if I were scum.

He is also completely breezing past the fact that catboi was a strong town read the day before AND that I had already looked at everyone's stances the day before.

Also with the knowledge that maf knew what the setup was since day 2, it makes catboi's mass claim proposal a lot more suspicious.
If the mass claim went through, one of the mafs could have claimed tracker, I die N2 and maf easily gets a miselim D3 and wins.

VOTE: catboi

I am finding it really hard to look at my day 2 interactions with catboi (starting at post 755) coming from scum!boi.

I don't think that scum catboi approaches me this way. I was not particularly town read, so people are not following me - and he just happened to exist on a list of

5 names

of people in my PoE, and I was not pushing him at the time. This is not a threat to scum!catboi that he needs to deal with, and getting me to town read him is likely not a top priority.

It reads more like proper frustration at getting incorrectly scum read by me once again.

I also don't think that he then questions me when I say that my scum read softened.

And finally, I buy 762

Spoiler: Bella

@mod,.vla until monday

The worsts reads seem to be 'elim anything that isn't me'. I've not played with them much, but I don't recognize this kind of survivalist/ opportunist vibe. I'd like to see them really take ownership of a case, even if to understand their thought process.

@ the worst, you've votes everyone living apart from me, syugar and t02. You've just said you maybe town read catjpeg and catboi, but phrased in a really wooly way.
You also ignored the rest of my post. That's both you and catboi who have blatantly misrepped me now.

Spoiler: cat.jpeg

If both prs claim neither of them will definitely die (because we have a protective role) unless we have a mafia roleblocker which is a 2/5 chance. If there isn’t a roleblocker then I think its still unlikely

doctor

/

jailkeeper

will save the nk and it will be wifom thing. Bit better chance if it’s a

jailkeeper

though but still not good odds. I think the prs should claim tmr. If one of the prs dies sure we miss out on a potential conf town that they could of told us of, but on day 3 we can just look at their biggest townread from today. As for if a

jailkeeper

dies well yea their info will be lost.

About

jailkeeper

, obviously a conf mafia is more useful than a conf town but is a 'either mafia or nightkill' more useful than a conf town? im not sure but if we had a

jailkeeper

they probably picked someone with the intention of protecting them or stopping them from killing so they likely have an opinion about whether their target is town or not. I'm opposed to mass claim today unless we have a

jailkeeper

with somebody they think is scum (or a different role with a guilty but obviously you should always claim if ur that). If thats the case then the

jailkeeper

should claim then we should start popcorning after that. I don't think its good to have only one of the prs claiming, it should be all or none based off of what happened in my last game where scum claimed tracker, a role that was compatible with both real prs so neither counterclaimed. Anyway if none of the prs claim we can just assume they only have conf towns. (i guess if somebody had a conf townread on the worst or GM or something that would be useful too, up to you if you want to claim on that)

Also I figured out what I didn't like about Cat using the same words as me - mirroring can be used to buddy (& is the most common method of irl buddying, intentional and otherwise). Whether that means anything here is still undecided.

I am also mirroring your pfp. Anyway I had no idea you used 'I don't love' so much until I checked your iso, it was completely subconscious. My scheming is no where near the purposefully copying mannerisms level yet. Also hate to say it but you townreading me probably wouldnt help me too much this game.

Spoiler: catboi

No deaths is good-ish. Given how stalled out things were yesterday, I was thinking that if no PRs died during the night we'd have people claim to narrow down the pool of suspects. Thoughts? (taking a page from LLD with this strategy)

Assuming it wasn't an intentional no-kill (highly unlikely), leaves the following as possible setups:

Column A & Row 1: Mafia Roleblocker, Mafia Goon, Town Cop, Town Doctor, Vanilla Townie x 5
Column A & Row 2: Mafia Roleblocker, Mafia Goon, Town Jailkeeper, Town Tracker, Vanilla Townie x 5

Column A & Row 3: Mafia Roleblocker, Mafia Goon, Town Mason x2, Vanilla Townie x 5

Column B & Row 1: Mafia Rolecop, Mafia Goon, Town Tracker, Town Friendly Neighbor, Vanilla Townie x 5

Column B & Row 2: Mafia Rolecop, Mafia Goon, Town Jailkeeper, Town Friendly Neighbor, Vanilla Townie x 5
Column B & Row 3: Mafia Rolecop, Mafia Goon, Town Tracker, Town Doctor, Vanilla Townie x 5

Column C & Row 1: Mafia Goon x 2, Town Cop, Vanilla Townie x 6

Column C & Row 2: Mafia Goon x 2, Town Jailkeeper, Vanilla Townie x 6

Column C & Row 3: Mafia Goon x 2, Town Mason x2, Vanilla Townie x 5

Also, newbie 2093 ended, so I can say that Asphodelus replaced out because she wasn't feeling into her games. So I don't think her dropping from this game is necessarily AI, and I'm not sure her being underwhelming compared to her other games is necessarily AI. I still think worst's play from Day 1 is significantly scum-motivated.

because there's confirmed to be no kill it also limits the number of possible setups, if there's a cop or tracker the investigative report is useful information that can narrow things down (or possibly just out a mafia, depending on their target). A doc save is unambiguously clear, a jailkeeper target is unfortunately ambiguous as to whether it was a save or a blocked kill but it at least gives something to discuss. I think at this point though any information is going to be useful given where we are an the amount of replacements and idleness we had to work through on Day 1.

Spoiler: goodmorning

Massclaiming makes no sense with either 8 or 7 alive. Trying to hamstring your PRs at this stage of the game in a semiopen is not correct and I will fight anyone who thinks it is. (Even LLD, and I really like LLD!)

Now, if this were an Open, it probably would be correct, but this is not an Open.

Also: in the specific Tracker scenario mentioned, where a JK claims, it would make more sense for the Tracker to claim VT so that they can continue to investigate; otherwise they are completely useless as they'd likely eat the JK N2 (i.e., not being able to do their job) and very possibly become a miselim candidate afterwards, since they wouldn't even have "innocent child" status by way of the massclaim.

I think the only other thing for me to address is @Luke:
1. You clearly haven't been actually reading my posts if you're bringing "lies and slander" back up again.
2. What makes you think those were "busywork" questions instead of, I don't know, actual questions?
3. You wouldn't have noticed that over my "last couple games", since it's usually something I do when I get behind/replace in to games. My last game i was one of the more prolific posters, and the games before that were when I was in the process of site flaking 6 years ago and did not give a single shit about staying informed.

Anyway, more reads stuff later when I can be bothered but suffice it to say catboi may actually be Town. When I reread the game just for content and not tone, there was nothing in his posts to dislike.

Also I figured out what I didn't like about Cat using the same words as me - mirroring can be used to buddy (& is the most common method of irl buddying, intentional and otherwise). Whether that means anything here is still undecided.

Spoiler: syugar

No deaths is good-ish. Given how stalled out things were yesterday, I was thinking that if no PRs died during the night we'd have people claim to narrow down the pool of suspects. Thoughts? (taking a page from LLD with this strategy)

I am not opposed to this, i dont think? LLD convinced me that day 2 popcorn pr claims is good in general a while back - but I have not thought a out whether a lack of kill affects that at all.

nope not with 8 alive

slank cover til tomorrow, dont know what to say

theres no massing with 8 people it makes sense with 7 imo

in that sense it sucks no one died

catboi, t02, bella i believe to be town, squabbling over who else gets elim i dont particularly care, still

Because we opened the day up by immediately talking about mass claiming or not, I feel like its odd looking at everyone's entrances, because it seems to basically boil down to post on whether they agree or disagree with the mass claim for the most part - except for bella who was vla then skipped to talking about the worst.

It looks like me and catboi were pro massclaim, and everyone else was anti.

That does mean that as a minimum one scum was against the mass claim, and I think that actually makes sense given the worry that there might be a floating guilty out there on them. This is another reason to think catboi is town here.

I think that the scum team would hope that the jk could be night killed without outing their target - which coincidentally, is something that cat.jpeg said explicitly "As for if a jailkeeper dies well yea their info will be lost."

I also noticed that cat.jpeg spent a lot of time talking explicitly about the jailkeeper possibility. Like says doc exactly once as part of a "doctor/jailkeeper" and then proceeds to talk about jailkeeper for the rest of the post.

Goodmorning on the other hand spent a lot of time talking about a tracker + JK combo, which I feel like could be setting up for a fake claim down the line.

I also highlighted goodmorning's comment about cat.jpeg, which feels awkward? And also surprising that goodmorning is now walking into day 3 with a cat.jpeg town read.

I am feeling a lot better about the gm+cat.jpeg solve atm. They both walked into day 2 against the mass claim, because they were worried about a guilty on one of them. Goodmorning's comment also looks like an awkward attemt to distance from cat.jpeg - which would make sense if GM is worried about having a guilty on them.

----

Something else I noticed toDay was this line

Like, I town read catboi, my read wavered for a moment when he started pushing me, and then went back to thinking the same things that I had thought the day before -- and he is painting that as an impossible progression.

[Lukewarm]

The way he latches on to syugar suggesting a team of jpeg/gm but stays parked on gm doesn't make a ton of logical sense - realistically I'm not sure why he resists the cat.jpeg vote if he believes that's the team but it makes more sense if he's trying to position himself on the "correct" vote yesterday and is wary of being suspected for leaping off of gm

catboi... this isn't even true I don't think.

I think that I landed on the gm+jpeg solve before syugar ever did, so that definitely wasn't me latching onto anything...

----


942 T02 reveals that syugar and bella were the jk targets.

I start solving given a clear To2, and I voted GM soon after with 948. There was no reason for me to already be bussing here.

I have the solve of GM and jpeg in 949 and start casing it with 950.

T02 votes catboi in 953.

I immediately town case catboi in 955, trying to dissuade a wagon there. (Which as scum, I definitly should not do... Bella said that they thought it was catboi+GM in 937. Bella+T02 on catboi would have been a godsend for scum luke there)

(Syugar first suggests GM and jpeg in 973 btw)

I do some more rereading, and end up casing GM+jpeg some more in 985.

989/990 syugar says that he agrees with my case, and then suggests that we kill gm first for a "possible jk clear" I immediately ask what he means, because if that is true I'd move my vote, but I did not understand what he was saying. (which as scum, I literally just presented that as the team, and I could have just... moved my vote to sheep him)

His response was 995, which did not make a ton of sense to me, and T02 asked him to follow up. 996.

At this point, I was still just waiting for him to tell me what he saw that I was missing on why that was better then the other.

jpeg votes gm in 999
T02 votes gm in 1016

So now, I still did not understand why syugar prefered jpeg go first, but gm had 3 votes and jpeg had 1. So it had inertia. It seemed likely to me that they were both scum, and so it did not make sense to me to move to the smaller wagon

Which I explicitly said here

I guess I dont think that it matters much which of jpeg or gm goes first.

I think goodmorning is kind of the default because t02 seems to be Town reading jpeg. Not sure it's worth trying to sway him to move his vote, so :shrug:

T02 was on goodmorning, and was townreading jpeg. moving the elim seemed like it would take effort, and it seemed like wasted effort.

[Lukewarm]

VOTE: Cat.Jpeg

im badly outplayed if this is wrong and will go eat my underwear

iso looks partnered with gm with the initial readslist and the followup so thatd be my first jk instinct

VOTE: goodmorning

Not impressed with your lack of engagement.

if gm is maf I will jail bella

I think you should jail someone you havent before

prob jk on catboi idk tho cuz he also seems quite townish but i dont think ill have that degree of confidence

Something else I just spoted was syugar's progression on who should be jailkept.

His presented solve was goodmorning+jpeg, but kill jpeg first, and then jail goodmorning. This is a stance feels like it makes sense with his read pairing. Scum!syugar is risking nothing with this stance, since if jpeg is flipped it doesn't matter if t02 jks gm.

Then, GM hits e-1.

Now, his stance is "don't jail someone you have already jailed" (which since he was jailed, it definitely benefits him)

And then he lands on... catboi? Remember, he was set on the jpeg+gm solve, and originally saying "kill one and jail the other." And that just disappears now that it looks like GM is going through.

I think that syugar prefered catboi being jailed, because he wanted to keep the miselim option open for jpeg.

[syugar]

This is a lot of words to boil down to
1) Luke's first reaction to catboi's push was weak and not well thought out
2) After walking away and thinking on it a bit, he had very detailed thoughts on catboi's alignments
3) ????
4) Therefore Luke is scum.

I admit that 1 and 2 are both true.

You miss the essence of the case when you say that my case "basically boils down" to this, but anyone who reads it for themselves can see that. Nothing I've said is technically impossible for a townie to do, which is why I've been oscillating between votes, but it's difficult to reconcile these posts as being from the same town solve, along with some other reads.

First, the timing of the posts syugar grabbed were explicitly when we just walked into this day phase, and it was confirmed to me that I had been town reading scum, and that I needed to throw away my earlier town reads and try again. And that was immediately before I saw catboi pushing me since when I opened the thread up the T02 flip and catbois vote were litearlly back to back . But then as I laid in bed I was thinking back over all of the reasons that I was town reading catboi the day before, and it was hard to slot it together. -- But syugar wants people to believe that it is impossible for me, as town, to have those thoughts occur at those times.

Again, "impossible" is absurd, but "unlikely" is probably true. It's a crack in your game that doesn't line up with your perceived skill level or process, it feels like guttural and reactive pure defense or just a throwaway reaction used to force the impression of a progression on the table. It's a type of loquacious empty-headedness that doesn't fit into the rest of your game.

I don't think that there is even a reason why I need to have that 180 there as scum.

This is (pick any):
1) Incredibly debatable depending on your read of the thread state;
2) A statement that supports the fact that you posted those two throwaway lines to manufacture some sort of "180" so you could call back to it later
3) WIFOM. People often do things as scum that they view as unnecessary for them to do as scum so that they can say they wouldn't have done it as scum. What is a scum game but doing a bunch of actions that you want others to think are reasonless as scum?

I am grabbing some cases that I have made in other games, to show why I don't think that syugar really did meta on me and came to the conclusion "none of your reads were as empathetically specific or comprehensive as uve been doing this game so i decided it was good enough" or "that also doesn't make sense and doesn't seem like a towny thought process, you're assuming 3 chess moves in advance in a game of checkers."

That I didn't read your games /at all/ is a very un-sympathetic conclusion on your part, which again makes it feel like you aren't trying to sort me, just push me. For scum!me to just lie about it when anyone can look at your iso at any point would be pretty egregious and something I'd most likely avoid commenting on without triple checking to make sure it's coherent.

It's kind of close to true, though, without the narrative you're setting up behind it. I only brusquely reviewed one of your games, a very recent one, so it's possible I was inaccurate. I was pretty fed up the game at that point, so I didn't really feel like doing my DD, just finding a rough baseline I thought I was comfortable with. Saying this alone makes you digging through a bunch of other games to set this "gotcha" up against me kind of pointless, because I... probably didn't read the games you're quoting. I am, as with the rest of the game, just sputtering out my thought process for the thread.

I am disinterested in picking these apart for now because they aren't really integral to why I'd vote you here, but maybe after I finish the rest of this post.

And, this is why I was pushing so hard for him to tell me what game he even read of mine to come to those conclusions.

Because it looks like he was argueing "Luke thinks about games the way that Luke thinks about game -- and therefore Luke is scum" And then he tried to back it up as a meta based read.
[...]
But he was never even able to do that.

And even looking at this progression here. He is catching up. He hits catbois vote on me, and says that he prefers Bella. He makes 1179 at 7:10. Then he makes 1190 at 7:15.

That means he had the thought on my post, looked up a recent game of mine, went through my iso to analyze my cases in that game and read them closely enough to come to the confident conclusion that I just don't make detailed nuanced cases, came back to the thread and called me scummy in 5 mins.

I concede that I never did that; I never supplied the game. "Never even able" is different from "never did", though. If I went into your post history and looked again I'd probably be able to pick it out, but it doesn't sound very interesting. Why haven't I? It doesn't look like you were genuinely interested in getting an answer to that question, because you dropped it as soon as gave an answer you deem as unsatisfactory. You still don't. This shows something kind of impure about your approach: this clearly bothers you, but instead of browbeating me for an answer you're just interested in reframing and assuming the meaning of these posts. You're totally satisfied to hang me with my own words without first going through the social interactions to understand what my own words even are.

Bluntly, you're misrepresenting what I said, again. I said I "skimmed a towngame of yours and didn't see any posts close to this".

You're incorrectly assuming that that means "Luke just doesn't make detailed, nuanced cases". It never crossed your mind to ask me what I meant by that. When I was scanning your game, I was looking for a specific type of case that I couldn't find. It's hard to describe and I had only intuitively acknowledged this, but let's look at the extratextual 663 you supplied:

Town

Spoiler: StrangeMatter

58
I stand by the fact that their reads list in 535 had a total of 3 names to be town indicative for them. SM was not even taking the time to flesh out most of the reasons, so could have easily put more names in there - even just copying a couple consensus reads.

I have also seen town!StangeMatter say the exact same general idea behind "Partial paranoia but he just feels like how he played in Mini 2265 and I can never get a read on him" in two separate games. Putting people down as scum leans because they bamboozled them in the past.

They did it with me here: viewtopic.php?t=88785&f=90&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

They did it another time with Dwlee here: viewtopic.php?p=13200640#p13200640

This is distinctly in line with how town!StrangeMatter thinks about slots, even if it is a strange approach.

I like 546 as well

I would be VERY surprised it StrangeMatter flips scum here. SM is a LHF player that is often misread.

Spoiler: Titus

Figured I would explain the dumb working thing about 36. It was the asynchronous way she referred to the scum team in the conclusion of each line.

then they win | then scum lose
scum win | we win

I would expect scum to be thinking more to make sure they don't mess up and say we, us, them to refer to the wrong group. (which is why, more often then not, I expect something like that to actually be a town mistype). But in trying to make sure that in this repeated if then scenario, they were actually worried about that, I would expect it to be more consistent.

So, yeah. That was my dumb reason to town read titus.

Re: the "stop voting my mason." It distinctly reminded me of her town hunting approach in a prior game. I thought it was 2226, but looking back at that game I am not seeing exactly what I was reminded of... so it must have been a different game. Not trudging through all of my games to find it.

{snip}

Scum

Spoiler: catboi

OMGUS

But for serious, I think that this is scum Catboi.

I have so many thoughts, but I feel like I am going to end up typing a thesis paper that won't convince anyone.... and I am struggling to express it in a way that is clear.

[I just typed out a rambling mess, and deleted it]

He feels like he is staking strategic positioning around people, vs naturally being in the game. I felt that way about his early interactions with Pooky (which also felt similar to the way he positioned around pooky in our Secret Hitler game), with the praetorian and mena in post 203, and with me.

His approach to me actually reminds me of scum!Prism's approach to me in our last game together, which was only the second ever time I have been miseliminated as town, so probably a good approach to have.

[omg , deleted another rambling mess.]

I am very certain in this read, but I don't think I type it out in a way that makes sense, so poo poo on me, I am actually just not good at the game.

Hey guys, if Catboi ever dies, and flips scum, probably look at Bell. If Catboi flips town, Bell can go up a couple notches on my reads list

The first read is a metaread based on shared experiences from previous towngames, but it doesn't assume any information that isn't available in public.

The second read is based on the wording of a statement, which doesn't assume any information that isn't available in public.

The third read is something that you couldn't even explain, which is pretty much completely divorced from your case in this game. You had no problem getting into the details. But, again, this case doesn't assume any information that isn't available to the public.

What's different about your read on catboi in this game? You assume information and team interactions that aren't available to the public, and it just isn't possible you have a good enough read on scum's supposed QT this game to satisfactorily make that leap without having extra questions or being unsure. You are gambling the game on content that you assume would exist if they were a scumteam but you are assuming does not exist because they disagreed on a mechanical play. If you can't see how this is much more of a reach than these three reads and is just substantively different, I'm not sure what to say.

So, yeah, you don't understand what I meant by "doesn't come close to this". It isn't that you can't be

detailed

in terms of your town meta, it's that the case itself is so

spurious and unsupported by content that we have

. Nor did you ever ask or really feel like you were interested in receiving the answer through progression of clear followup. Understanding my viewpoint seems totally irrelevant to you. Why does it seem totally irrelevant? You didn't ask me to clear this up; you typed a long essay about something you assumed I meant first to support your read. Based on things you don't understand or haven't tried to. (will continue on in another post due to formatting complexities)

[syugar]

And even looking at this progression here. He is catching up. He hits catbois vote on me, and says that he prefers Bella. He makes 1179 at 7:10. Then he makes 1190 at 7:15.

That means he had the thought on my post, looked up a recent game of mine, went through my iso to analyze my cases in that game and read them closely enough to come to the confident conclusion that I just don't make detailed nuanced cases, came back to the thread and called me scummy in 5 mins.

2: Hey, you copied me. I'll respond to this with your own words from this game:

I think that you must be pretty slow on a computer to think that I couldn't spot check that information that quickly.

[syugar]

And like, if he really believed everything that he said in 1317 then what was he doing when he made this comment

luke looks less partnered with gm the more i reread and talked with him today, largely for reasons i already believed in yesterday and just threw aside, i didn't really have any logical edge against him when we were arguing and his points related to yesterday's vote make sense

So, he was absolutely convinced that I was scum. Then decided that I was town. Then went back to being convinced I was scum. Both of the changes happened while I was completely out of the thread.

What? This actually

is

flailing: it's not true. I didn't even say that I currently believed you were the best vote, I'm just restating myself more clearly and engaging with Bella to try and show my thought process and understand what she thinks about it, how it changes her read about you in any way, and if-not-why-not. I rephrased my argument so that Bella could engage with it: I said nothing about continuing on to vote you (yet).

VOTE: Unvote

Here's what I'm going to do.

I believe I was a bit inarticulate about the read you just referenced on Luke. When I get home, I'll rehash it in more detail and we can talk through it.

This is

another

case of you misrepresenting me; you realize I haven't even voted you yet?

[syugar]

Keep in mind this is a read that flipped Luke's perceptions of catboi, so you'd think it'd have to be something pretty strong. This read takes four or five assumptions that may prove true or untrue and essentially gambles the game on them. It feels like justification created after the read was decided. For strategic reasons. I don't think town!Luke would find this super soul read convincing enough to carry this anti partner read. It's like... out of his own book, TMI?

And even here, he sayd "for strategic reasons" without even giving a strategic reason for me to do this if I were scum.

He is also completely breezing past the fact that catboi was a strong town read the day before AND that I had already looked at everyone's stances the day before.

Like, I town read catboi, my read wavered for a moment when he started pushing me, and then went back to thinking the same things that I had thought the day before -- and he is painting that as an impossible progression.

Yeah, that is a good point. I concede this.

[syugar]

VOTE: Cat.Jpeg

im badly outplayed if this is wrong and will go eat my underwear

iso looks partnered with gm with the initial readslist and the followup so thatd be my first jk instinct

VOTE: goodmorning

Not impressed with your lack of engagement.

if gm is maf I will jail bella

I think you should jail someone you havent before

prob jk on catboi idk tho cuz he also seems quite townish but i dont think ill have that degree of confidence

Something else I just spoted was syugar's progression on who should be jailkept.

His presented solve was goodmorning+jpeg, but kill jpeg first, and then jail goodmorning. This is a stance feels like it makes sense with his read pairing. Scum!syugar is risking nothing with this stance, since if jpeg is flipped it doesn't matter if t02 jks gm.

Then, GM hits e-1.

Now, his stance is "don't jail someone you have already jailed" (which since he was jailed, it definitely benefits him)

And then he lands on... catboi? Remember, he was set on the jpeg+gm solve, and originally saying "kill one and jail the other." And that just disappears now that it looks like GM is going through.

I think that syugar prefered catboi being jailed, because he wanted to keep the miselim option open for jpeg.

"Something else I just spoted was syugar's progression on who should be jailkept."

You didn't spot it, because you completely cut out post 1044:

cat jpeg voting gm is a bit weird for my view of this table but idk whats going on

I elaborate on this much later in 1111:

and independent on my townread on catboi, catboi/cat.jpeg makes more sense than any other team right now. I don't understand why jpeg just votes gm like that. It will be autoloss if they are partners. That's why I am freaked out.

That should answer your questions about my progression here. At a certain point there kind of came a sense of disbelief that cat.jpeg would be voting on gm into more or less autoloss there, so I got kind of paranoid and was looking for alternate stuff that made sense. So, doesn't look like you're curious about understanding my progression.

"Now, his stance is "don't jail someone you have already jailed" (which since he was jailed, it definitely benefits him)"

That was always my stance, it didn't then become my stance. Notice that I never said he should jail Bella or myself. You're right that it benefits me, but any jk that isn't me benefits me even as town because it helps narrow down the solve. Suppose they JK me here as town and I lead a (wrong) lynch on catjpeg and we get to ELO with me being dead and you in a trifecta with Bella and catboi; how did that benefit me?

When it comes down to it, I believe more in myself to townclear through volume and content than I believed in other people to do so. So, yeah, beneficial to me, but also beneficial to the rest of the game.

And then he lands on... catboi? Remember, he was set on the jpeg+gm solve, and originally saying "kill one and jail the other." And that just disappears now that it looks like GM is going through.

Answered by posts 1044 and 1111, which I've already quoted. I wasn't really sure on any of this.

I think that syugar prefered catboi being jailed, because he wanted to keep the miselim option open for jpeg.

That neglects to explain why I decided to hammer before T02 came back to the thread after he'd stated he'd jail cat.jpeg.

It also neglects to explain: If I didn't want this to happen, why didn't I give him the chance to come back to the thread, change his mind, and JK someone like Bella? If I wanted this to happen, why don't I just

agree that he should jail Bella and never (successfully) dissuade him from doing that

? That doesn't make sense if I don't want jpeg jailed.