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Post #339 (isolation #1) » Thu Oct 06, 2016 4:29 pm
Postby Dierfire »
My apologies to everyone--I overestimated the amount of free time that I would have this week. Fortunately, this is a short-term problem, and I expect to return in roughly 12 hours with sufficient time to get completely caught up.
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Post #351 (isolation #2) » Fri Oct 07, 2016 4:57 am
Postby Dierfire »
I find both PenguinPower and Gamma Emerald to be suspicious.
I definitely don't like the interaction between Gamma Emerald and PenguinPower finishing in 149. PenguinPower makes a great show of pointing out a seeming contradiction in the way that Gamma Emerald is treating Lil Uzi Vert and implosion, but then votes for Lil Uzi Vert (later clarifying in 240 that this was a result of Lil Uzi Vert not answering RQS and not contributing, which to me both seem like weaker reasons than what PenguinPower gave against Gamma Emerald). Of course, this makes the eventual move to Gamma Emerald in 335 seem forced or rushed (particularly given the hesitance in 320 and 309).
The rapid change between 221 (Grendel is either Town playing poorly or Mafia) and 242 (Grendel is Town) is also suspicious to me. While I agree that the last line of 241 sounds more like the kind of thing that Grendel would say as Town than as Mafia, the speed of reversal from the aggression in the earlier posts makes me believe that the aggression was feigned.
UNVOTE: Zoronos VOTE: PenguinPower
---
@implosion
I see your case that PenguinPower is Town in 330. I think that there's a chance that some of the emotions that you've assigned to PenguinPower (making him more likely to be Town) are feigned here. Could you link me to the previous game that you mentioned? I hesitate to guess before reading, but I could speculate a few reasons that PenguinPower, as Mafia, would respond differently to Grendel in this game than to you in the other.
---
I could perhaps note a few additional minor points against Gamma Emerald. The major points are all either associative or have been discussed already (or both).
@Gamma Emerald
In 224 you thought that Zoronos was suspicious for being defensive. What do you think of PenguinPower in 221?
---
I'm out of time for this interval. I'll back in a few hours to discuss why I'm reading implosion, Grendel, and nn30 as Town (I could tentatively add eagerSnake and Zoronos as well).
In post 351, Dierfire wrote:The rapid change between 221 (Grendel is either Town playing poorly or Mafia) and 242 (Grendel is Town) is also suspicious to me. While I agree that the last line of 241 sounds more like the kind of thing that Grendel would say as Town than as Mafia, the speed of reversal from the aggression in the earlier posts makes me believe that the aggression was feigned.
Why specifically is that change suspicious? He was clearly entertaining the possibility of town in 221 (you summarized it above, 'Town playing poorly or Mafia'), and Grendel posted a whole bunch in between those two posts. Explain your thinking to me.
In 221, PenguinPower is saying (as an immediate response to Grendel's post above) that the case that Grendel presents against PenguinPower is groundless, and that this makes Grendel either Town playing poorly or Mafia. The phrasing communicates a certain level of aggressive pushback. When I read 242, the aggressive pushback seems to have disappeared (while the essence of the argument that Grendel's suspicions are unfounded remains). To me, this suggests that 221 was intended to simulate an emotional reaction. I'm also not sure that I see anything from Grendel in the intervening posts that would persuasively point to Town alignment for someone who had such a strong feeling that Grendel was playing so poorly as to possibly be masking Mafia intent, but the tonal shift is the main point.
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Post #491 (isolation #5) » Fri Oct 07, 2016 4:20 pm
Postby Dierfire »
@Grendel
In post 434, Grendel wrote:Does anybody have some hypothetical scum teams cooked up?
I can't I.D. third scum for my scum team and want to hear some interactions people may have caught between people.
A lot of people I originally thought could be with Penguin were, or are, on his wagon.
As I've outlined (351), I think that Gamma Emerald looks like a viable partner for PenguinPower. I also want to flag the quote below as suspicious, but I think that it's probably not productive to think too hard about this from an associative perspective right now.
In post 432, PenguinPower wrote:Btw...not liking Slandaar right now. Hate. Absolutely hate. Prodging.
The timing is weird to me (¿why is the absence of Slandaar provoking absolute hate at this point?) and feels more like PenguinPower is looking for something to say than like PenguinPower has a real comment on Slandaar at this point.
In post 491, Dierfire wrote:The timing is weird to me (¿why is the absence of Slandaar provoking absolute hate at this point?) and feels more like PenguinPower is looking for something to say than like PenguinPower has a real comment on Slandaar at this point.
Um, because I noticed it then? Should I have brought up before then?
I think that it's strange for you to be noticing it then, yes. My reaction in that position would have been to say something about players voting for me. Given the tone of your 431, I take it that you find most players voting for you likely to be Town?
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Post #517 (isolation #8) » Fri Oct 07, 2016 4:42 pm
Postby Dierfire »
I'm not seeing that comment as especially unlikely to come from a Mafia partner. It casts aspersions on the wagon without actually defending PenguinPower directly.
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Post #531 (isolation #9) » Fri Oct 07, 2016 6:31 pm
Postby Dierfire »
@PenguinPower
In post 519, PenguinPower wrote:That's a strange conclusion. I think there a some town on my wagon that seem to be doing worthwhile things, and if my lynch gets them moving on the right track, then...yeah. String me up.
Is it not an accurate conclusion? Which players on your wagon are Town doing worthwhile things? Which are suspicious folk?
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Post #532 (isolation #10) » Fri Oct 07, 2016 6:32 pm
Postby Dierfire »
@Grendel
In post 520, Grendel wrote:If you could explain these reads soon that'd be nice-
Sorry, I got distracted. Here is my reasoning.
implosion
has a few consistencies of thought. I liked the vote for Lil Uzi Vert in 131, and the reaction to Gamma Emerald in 247. These are consistent with the evolving reads presented in 257 (implosion was initially suspicious of Grendel, Zoronos, and eagerSnake, so it makes sense that he would move his vote to a wagon like Lil Uzi Vert).
He also has good points on Gamma (251, 257, 333).
Lastly, the read on PenguinPower given in 330 is thoughtful and makes clear effort to understand motivations for actions (although I suspect that when I read the game in question I will be able to come up with at least two reasons for the mismatch).
As a side note, I recall implosion as a source of quality analysis in a prior game (link--I'm not counting Mini 1762 because I never actually played). I'm therefore aware of what implosion said in 130; still, I think that these points make implosion more likely to be Town.
nn30
is a seemingly uncontroversial read, so I'll be brief. The look at prior games in 90 indicates a certain amount of motivation to discover information. I also agree with points raised by Zoronos in 303.
As for you (Grendel)
, I think that your RQS is probably not indicative of alignment, but your reaction to those who question RQS (in particular the last line of your 241) seems more likely to come from a Town player (there's a path of less resistance if you're Mafia just looking to fabricate some reads). Your case on PenguinPower agrees with my read and does not strike me as likely to come from a Mafia partner (unlike Gamma Emerald); this is further reinforced by the way that PenguinPower responds to you.
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Post #533 (isolation #11) » Fri Oct 07, 2016 6:32 pm
Postby Dierfire »
@Zoronos
In post 523, Zoronos wrote:So, you're either missing an obvious cause for the tone shift, or not understanding the tone shift. There is a better case available against Penguin (in my mind), so I'm really curious why you chose this specific case.
I suppose that the best explanation that I could give is this: I'm not seeing the tone shift from aggressive to dismissive, but more like aggressive/dismissive to avoidant.
If you see a better case (and if it doesn't look to be related to my existing line of questioning), I would like to hear it (particularly given your most recent posting).
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Post #595 (isolation #12) » Sun Oct 09, 2016 11:34 am
Postby Dierfire »
I'm hearing what other players are saying about PenguinPower, and I'm willing to consider that I'm wrong about his tone. However, I reviewed the game linked by implosion and I don't find it inconsistent with the way that PenguinPower is playing in this one. Among other things, I note that in this game Grendel had attracted substantial negative reactions from other players with regard to the RQS opening (which makes it relatively safe for PenguinPower to push the line "bad Town or Mafia" here). In that game, PenguinPower attracted suspicion mainly from implosion, who gave clear and detailed reasoning that was received well by other players (at one point two players followed implosion without adding much to the case, implying that implosion had some standing--it is also notable that PenguinPower characterized implosion as "manipulative" in that game).
I also think that this point still stands (I'm adding that the case in 312 pulls mostly from material before 240):
In post 351, Dierfire wrote:I definitely don't like the interaction between Gamma Emerald and PenguinPower finishing in 149. PenguinPower makes a great show of pointing out a seeming contradiction in the way that Gamma Emerald is treating Lil Uzi Vert and implosion, but then votes for Lil Uzi Vert (later clarifying in 240 that this was a result of Lil Uzi Vert not answering RQS and not contributing, which to me both seem like weaker reasons than what PenguinPower gave against Gamma Emerald). Of course, this makes the eventual move to Gamma Emerald in 335 seem forced or rushed (particularly given the hesitance in 320 and 309).
---
@Zoronos
In post 534, Zoronos wrote:I also think your commentary in 515 is off base. It's NAI (in my opinion) for him to note it. He responded to Grendel (in a frustrated fashion), posted about an AFK, and then went right back to talking to Grendel. It wasn't some epic deflection.
I don't recall characterizing it as epic, but I still think that it reads as a deflection, not from talking
other players voting for him. In other words, I think that PenguinPower "noticing" an AFK player at that moment is the sort of thing that is less likely to come from a player trying to read alignments and more likely from a player looking for something to say.
---
Since I still think that the way that Gamma Emerald approaches PenguinPower looks like a Mafia partner (refresher below), I'm willing to move my vote if there is significant resistance on PenguinPower.
Spoiler: Refresher
Gamma Emerald starts by objecting to the speed of the wagon on PenguinPower:
In post 367, MariaR wrote:to fast a wagon for someone not very scummy nope not doing it
My specific problem is the fact we were already on intent to hammer with Maria having intent.
However, shortly afterward Gamma Emerald feels the need to join the wagon (and seemed to suggest that he was only waiting for a VC to do so earlier, which makes the comment about the wagon speed strange):
In post 442, Gamma Emerald wrote:You trying to call his methodology bad. Also, as Grendel mentioned, you've seemed to be trying to remain in popular opinion.
Now that we have a VC: VOTE: PenguinPower
And I didn't say you were town, that statement before was sarcastic. I had already been townleaning Implosion. Not the same case with you.
It is also worth noting that PenguinPower answered Grendel's questions in 136, so my interpretation is that Gamma Emerald went looking for an excuse to vote for PenguinPower.
Later, the read appears to solidify:
In post 478, Gamma Emerald wrote:And boring just helped me explain part of my scum read on PP. He feels flippant in a scummy way.
Shortly thereafter, however, the story is again that Gamma Emerald only didn't care for the speed of the wagon (contradicts the "I was only waiting for a VC to join" sentiment above), and the idea that PenguinPower is flippant in a suspicious way has gone:
In post 506, Gamma Emerald wrote:
I wasn't against it, just against the fact he was run up so fast.
I'm actually rethinking my scumread on PP because of that wagon looking back. UNVOTE:
This is also immediately after he noticed that I was suspicious that he and PenguinPower were both Mafia (495).
From there, Gamma Emerald shifts from finding PenguinPower suspicious to looking for Mafia on his wagon:
In post 512, Gamma Emerald wrote:I'm feeling like the most likely person to be scum on PP's wagon was Dierfire.
Finally, Gamma Emerald decides that PenguinPower was not actually suspicious to begin with (until the time that I flip Town):
In post 570, Gamma Emerald wrote:
My read changed after my review of PP's wagon. I didn't find his vote particularly scummy.
As for Dierfire, I think he is the most likely scum on PP's wagon. His grouping of me and PP feels like throwing shade on us. This makes me think PP is town. If Dier flips town I'll reconsider my PP read.
It's also noteworthy here that my reasons for reading Gamma Emerald and PenguinPower are not addressed (just "throwing shade" and that's it).
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Post #596 (isolation #13) » Sun Oct 09, 2016 11:38 am
Postby Dierfire »
@Prism
Could you explain in more detail why a noncommittal read on MariaR is suspicious to you, and why the opinion of boring given in 563 is suspicious? The former is reasonable to me given that MariaR hasn't been a central figure in this game so far, and the latter seems consistent with the reasoning in 562.
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Post #1115 (isolation #14) » Mon Oct 10, 2016 8:30 pm
Postby Dierfire »
Why have you all written 21 pages since yesterday? I've read through a few pages, but I simply will not be able to make the time to read that much material thoroughly until tomorrow (and it would be tremendously convenient to not have another 21 pages written between then and now).
I'm aware that Shadow_step is claiming Ascetic, which I assume is why eagerSnake has a wagon now. I don't know why Lil Uzi Vert is voting for Shadow_step--I would think that a Mafia player would be unlikely to try to counter the claim from eagerSnake there.
I also see that boring is the leading wagon, which I assume will be discussed in the pages that I haven't read.
---
@boring
In post 598, boring wrote:@Deirfire - I just read that whole post, and I can't tell if you're justifying your vote on PP, or moving away from it. Can you give us a thesis statement?
I was both justifying my vote on PenguinPower and expressing willingness to vote for Gamma Emerald as well. I guess that we'll see whether anything changes when I get caught up.
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Post #1297 (isolation #15) » Tue Oct 11, 2016 5:23 pm
Postby Dierfire »
All right, I've caught up.
I am virtually certain that Shadow_step has the Ascetic modifier, regardless of alignment (he was clearly setting up to counter the claim as soon as eagerSnake made it), and very confident that Shadow_step is Town (Mafia has low incentive to counter the claim). With eagerSnake, I was half expecting him to withdraw the claim; the fact that he hasn't rules out some Town plays (Bulletproof or Miller trying to draw the kill were my first thoughts, I also thought of Wary but I don't know if that's common on this site because I can't find it in the Wiki--certainly it's not Normal). It also weighs against some Mafia plays (I agree with the idea that a Mafia Ascetic role is powerful and probably unlikely to claim early without withdrawing the claim later, so I'd find a Mafia Goon more likely).
A few points since the claim make me suspicious of eagerSnake. First, and most obviously, eagerSnake actively resisted attempts by Zoronos (785 and others) and nn30 (888) to provide content that would help us judge his alignment independently of the Ascetic claim. This seems consistent with a Mafia player in significant danger of being lynched and trying to avoid giving associative information (discussion of possible self-vote in 980 is also consistent with that thought process). The vote on implosion in 1212 is also strange given that boring is the larger wagon and was the player eagerSnake was most confidently reading as Mafia (I don't see any change from 1104). Of course, I think that the reasons to vote for boring didn't hold much water in the first place (
next post
post after next), which is also suspicious (I'm not buying that eagerSnake was simply too uncertain to make a meaningful case--in that event, he should have been working at improving his reads rather than repetitively insisting that he was Town).
UNVOTE: PenguinPower VOTE: eagerSnake
I want a full claim from eagerSnake.
I saw someone else ask this and get the "fishing" dodge, so to be clear: I am inclined to lynch eagerSnake
unless
he has some additional reason that we should leave him alive.
It seems unlikely to me that PenguinPower and Gamma Emerald are
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Post #1298 (isolation #16) » Tue Oct 11, 2016 5:23 pm
Postby Dierfire »
@Prism
In post 1253, Prism wrote:I'd rather hear why someone that isn't implosion disagree with the points I've made about implosion.
I'm still not suspicious of implosion.
I'm not suspicious of his read on MariaR in 562; as he said in in 802, he committed to other reads, so I'm not at all bothered by his difficulty reading one player (especially since MariaR had not given much that would help sort alignment).
I'll also throw this quote in about the read on boring:
In post 562, implosion wrote:I'm tempted to throw boring into my scumpile for reasons that I'm not sure have merit.
I don't find the discussion of those reasons suspicious; I'm understanding your argument that it doesn't make sense to have a problem with the reads that boring gave because they overlap with those given by implosion, but I think that it's perfectly fine to think that a Mafia player would give "easy" reads on Town players.
These things
could
come from a Mafia player, but I don't see any specific reason to think that they are coming from Mafia rather than Town here, and I'm sticking to the reasons that I gave for implosion as Town in 532.
virtually no one has read me for alignment or outed a single read on me
in 24 posts.
Grendel's recent one is the closest attempt.
I'll say that I disagree with Grendel in 1226. I don't find it suspicious that you would believe what implosion says about PenguinPower (it would be fairly easy to fabricate that read as Mafia, with a strong incentive to do so if PenguinPower were also Mafia and a weak incentive to do so if PenguinPower were Town). I would eventually like to hear your thoughts on my response to the meta case (595), but that's a low priority right now.
I'm not suspicious of your reasoning; I don't think that there's any special reason for you as Mafia to be focusing on implosion here, and it does seem as though you are trying to determine alignment by looking at whether implosion actually believes the reads that he gives.
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Post #1299 (isolation #17) » Tue Oct 11, 2016 5:23 pm
Postby Dierfire »
Last, I'm discussing boring.
MariaR seems to be working with PoE (675). I've nothing useful to say about that.
I see that nn30 has multiple references to things that feel "off" (564, 638, 932) but not much elaboration on those.
The idea that eagerSnake parking a vote on boring should have attracted more votes from Mafia players if boring were Town (820) does not seem compelling to me. For one thing, there
were
votes for boring: a vote from Prism in 488 (due to an error in the VC the two votes for boring are listed separately), one from MariaR in 644, and one from implosion in 786.
I don't find it suspicious that she turned on eagerSnake after Shadow_step claimed. I think that her ISO clearly shows that she was reading eagerSnake as Town for no reason other than the claim (whether this was warranted is a separate discussion, but not one that I feel gives insight into her alignment given her reaction in 73). I'm not seeing any evidence that boring is "happy" with the conflict between Shadow_step and eagerSnake (774), other than the fact that she was ready to vote for eagerSnake.
The idea that the read on Shadow_step given by boring in 476 is the one that I most agree with--that last line in particular does seem awkward. I do think that Shadow_step seemed aggressive before that, though (and I find it suspicious that Gamma Emerald in 927 seems convinced by this, since Gamma Emerald in 485 thought that Shadow_step was in a tunnel).
This isn't a Town read, but it's not a Mafia read and I think that eagerSnake is a better vote than boring.
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Post #1309 (isolation #21) » Tue Oct 11, 2016 5:40 pm
Postby Dierfire »
I could think of lots of reasons for PenguinPower not to see a need to move his vote there.
What if he were Mafia with eagerSnake, afraid to look like he's trying to counter the wagon?
What if he were Mafia with boring, trying to keep the eagerSnake wagon viable to avoid lynching boring?
What if every single wagon were on Town, and he just didn't see a need to move a vote at all?
(What if he were Mafia with you and the whole thing is an act?)
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Post #1311 (isolation #22) » Tue Oct 11, 2016 5:42 pm
Postby Dierfire »
If it helps, I'm more suspicious of you than of PenguinPower, so there's a real chance that he's Town; I just don't see why his refusal to vote for me is inconsistent with Mafia alignment.
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Post #1315 (isolation #24) » Tue Oct 11, 2016 5:51 pm
Postby Dierfire »
I'd apologize to you after the game for being wrong, of course.
I'd also do what I usually do after a player flips: read the game over for new insights (the length of this game will make that difficult, but I'd at least give it a try).
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Post #1317 (isolation #25) » Tue Oct 11, 2016 5:53 pm
Postby Dierfire »
That would be a similar situation, except that the "new insights" category would probably be larger because I could assess the players on and off the wagon for their reasoning (whereas the NK is often a source of WIFOM).
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Post #1322 (isolation #26) » Tue Oct 11, 2016 6:11 pm
Postby Dierfire »
@Gamma Emerald
In post 351, Dierfire wrote:
I definitely don't like the interaction between Gamma Emerald and PenguinPower finishing in 149. PenguinPower makes a great show of pointing out a seeming contradiction in the way that Gamma Emerald is treating Lil Uzi Vert and implosion, but then votes for Lil Uzi Vert (later clarifying in 240 that this was a result of Lil Uzi Vert not answering RQS and not contributing, which to me both seem like weaker reasons than what PenguinPower gave against Gamma Emerald). Of course, this makes the eventual move to Gamma Emerald in 335 seem forced or rushed (particularly given the hesitance in 320 and 309).
--SNIP--
@Gamma Emerald
In 224 you thought that Zoronos was suspicious for being defensive. What do you think of PenguinPower in 221?
I thought that the pattern from PenguinPower early in the game (cast suspicion on you but vote for Lil Uzi Vert in 149) looked like a possible partner interaction (create distance without a vote). I thought that the switch in 335 was not consistent with the progression of the game at the time (I thought that he had better reasons to vote for you sooner, meaning that he had some ulterior motive to vote you then, such as creating distance).
I also thought that PenguinPower was similarly "defensive" in 221 compared to Zoronos in 222, so I was suspicious that you voted Zoronos without comment about PenguinPower.
In post 517, Dierfire wrote:I'm not seeing that comment as especially unlikely to come from a Mafia partner. It casts aspersions on the wagon without actually defending PenguinPower directly.
This was a reference to 365. I thought that you were trying to oppose the wagon on PenguinPower without saying so directly.
I can't find the quote right now, but I thought that your flip on PenguinPower was suspicious too--it was a drastic change from your earlier confidence and for reasons that had existed at the time of your earlier confidence.
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Post #1324 (isolation #27) » Tue Oct 11, 2016 6:14 pm
Postby Dierfire »
@Shadow_step
In post 1320, Shadow_step wrote:No point asking Eager for a full claim, he will probably claim a strong pro town role to draw a CC, so that his buddies can kill that player. No thanks.
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Post #1330 (isolation #29) » Tue Oct 11, 2016 6:19 pm
Postby Dierfire »
I promise that I will continue to evaluate and update throughout the game. I like to think that I am not inordinately susceptible to confirmation bias, and I always read and try to understand the perspectives even of players that I find suspicious.
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Post #1332 (isolation #30) » Tue Oct 11, 2016 6:27 pm
Postby Dierfire »
No, I've no other players that I'm reading as Mafia at this time.
I'm reading as Town: Prism, Shadow_step, nn30, Zoronos, implosion, and Grendel (strongest reads are Shadow_step and Zoronos)
I'm reading as Null: Lil Uzi Vert, MariaR, and boring (first two I haven't made much effort to read, boring I've read but not found anything especially indicative of alignment)
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Post #1351 (isolation #32) » Wed Oct 12, 2016 4:50 am
Postby Dierfire »
@Zoronos
In post 1334, Zoronos wrote:So, for the sake of clarity Dierfire, your scum reads are Eager, Gamma, and Penguin? You are further of the opinion that Gamma and Penguin's set of disagreements around the competing trains was theater / scum distancing and that they could be scum together?
Am I understanding this correctly?
Yes, that's correct.
I'm not married to the idea that all three are Mafia together, but I have independent reasons to read each as Mafia, associative reasons to read PenguinPower and Gamma Emerald as partners, and no associative reasons to doubt either as partners for eagerSnake (in fact, perhaps some associative reasons to read Gamma Emerald as a likely partner for eagerSnake given the hops on and off the eagerSnake wagon).
For Gamma Emerald and PenguinPower, I think that their direct reads on each other looked like interactions between Mafia partners. I don't recall many disagreements between them about other players (implosion early in the game, in real time when Gamma Emerald voted for me, and indirectly after Gamma Emerald was considering moving back to eagerSnake); none looked especially difficult to coordinate or unlikely to occur to Mafia partners.
In post 1334, Zoronos wrote:So, for the sake of clarity Dierfire, your scum reads are Eager, Gamma, and Penguin? You are further of the opinion that Gamma and Penguin's set of disagreements around the competing trains was theater / scum distancing and that they could be scum together?
Am I understanding this correctly?
Yes, that's correct.
I'm not married to the idea that all three are Mafia together, but I have independent reasons to read each as Mafia, associative reasons to read PenguinPower and Gamma Emerald as partners, and no associative reasons to doubt either as partners for eagerSnake (in fact, perhaps some associative reasons to read Gamma Emerald as a likely partner for eagerSnake given the hops on and off the eagerSnake wagon).
So, in short, your theory is that Gamma is Eager's scum partner, and who jumped on the lynch train when he thought it was going to complete for the town cred, then jumped off again when he thought he might be able to save his scum buddy?
Yes, and I'll add that Gamma Emerald jumped on twice and off twice (comes back from V/LA, sees the claim from Shadow_step, votes in 867; removes vote from eagerSnake in 927 and to Shadow_step in 933 after Lil Uzi Vert adds another vote to that wagon; brings eagerSnake to L-1 in 1176; comes off again in 1258).
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Post #1395 (isolation #35) » Wed Oct 12, 2016 2:48 pm
Postby Dierfire »
@Lil Uzi Vert
In post 1390, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:I'm saying that Shadow made it look like he intended to counterclaim Snake and that when he did counterclaim, it conveniently was at time where there were some serious discussion and debate going on about the wagons on Gamma and Penguin.
I think that it's clear that Shadow_step was setting up to counter the claim from early in the game. I'm not certain why you find that suspicious. Why would Shadow_step, as Mafia, feel the need to start setting up to dispute the claim so early? Usually it is not difficult to dispose of an Ascetic role (by NK or by lynch).
I also don't think that Shadow_step needed to claim in order to create a distraction. The move that you describe would be one with low reward and high risk.
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Post #1399 (isolation #37) » Wed Oct 12, 2016 2:58 pm
Postby Dierfire »
If PenguinPower were Town, and you were Town, and Shadow_step were Mafia, then Shadow_step would have very little need to distract from the competing wagons.
Or are you saying that you're reading Shadow_step as Town
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Post #1405 (isolation #38) » Wed Oct 12, 2016 3:22 pm
Postby Dierfire »
@PenguinPower
In post 1400, PenguinPower wrote:Sorry...Dier is talking a lot about my wagon in relation to the claim. Could you clarify as to where my wagon was at when the claim came?
Shadow_step claimed in 642. This was the VC at the time (I see no changes between the VC and the claim):
I'm saying to Gamma Emerald that, if you and he were both Town, and Shadow_step were Mafia, there would be many easier things to do than counter the claim by eagerSnake (vote for one of the large Town wagons, vote for one of the small Town wagons, something).
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Post #1411 (isolation #39) » Wed Oct 12, 2016 3:33 pm
Postby Dierfire »
@Lil Uzi Vert
I think that you are mistaken to suggest that Shadow_step was "tunneling" you early in the game. I assume that you're referring to things like 125 and 166, and the fact that he left his RVS vote on you. I wouldn't read too much into those things; his lines of questioning suggest that his focus was much more strongly on eagerSnake after the claim (122, 168, 263, 280, 296).
I also think that it is incorrect to suggest that Shadow_step came up with "little to no information" by waiting, or that he had insufficient information to proceed. You may have missed this post:
In post 739, Shadow_step wrote:I got townreads. I'm almost 100% sure that boring is town because of your interactions.
And that these shouldn't be bothered at night by PRs[zoronos, nn, grendel, boring]
Actually I'd even go as far as saying that DF is town. But that is a meta read so meh
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Post #1417 (isolation #42) » Wed Oct 12, 2016 3:46 pm
Postby Dierfire »
@Gamma Emerald
I'm not understanding this line at all.
The claim from Shadow_step decreased the sizes of the wagons on you and PenguinPower.
Your theory is that Shadow_step made this claim in order to look as though he were distracting from your wagons and thereby get you lynched (along with him).
I don't think that this makes sense, because Shadow_step had no need to sacrifice himself; he could have simply voted for one of the wagons and tried to push it to completion (potentially with assistance from other Mafia players). This has every probability of giving one lynch without cost. He could then push the other on some later day, leaving alive the Town players who looked likely to cooperate so as to ensure wagon viability. These maneuvers would be more reliable than banking on us drawing weird associations and less risky than putting a claim out there.
It's extraordinarily far-fetched to think that the focus of the claim by Shadow_step was any player other than eagerSnake.
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Post #1419 (isolation #43) » Wed Oct 12, 2016 3:49 pm
Postby Dierfire »
@Lil Uzi Vert
In post 1416, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:You're not taking into the account that he had a gut read on me he could not explain, called me out for naked voting, and actually was serious about it even when people tried to point it out to him that it was RVS and it means nothing. He seemed very serious about wanting to lynch me.
I'm not talking about that reads list, I'm talking about the one that followed after he counterclaimed.
I am taking his statements into account. I am suggesting to you that a "gut read" without explanation and calling you out for a naked vote does not constitute a serious attempt to lynch, particularly at that stage in the game.
Are you referring to the list quoted below? To me it seems consistent with what I quoted before.
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Post #1421 (isolation #44) » Wed Oct 12, 2016 3:53 pm
Postby Dierfire »
@Gamma Emerald
Yes, boring was of the opinion that the game was unlikely to contain two Town Ascetic roles (quote below). What is your interpretation of that?
In post 1165, boring wrote:I think we've had quite enough role claims for Day 1, but suffice it to say that I find it very, very unlikely that we have two ascetics.
In post 958, eagerSnake wrote:You've literally spent the entirety of this game looking for "my buddies" which don't exist, forming your reads based on my interactions with other players while looking at me through rose tinted glasses. I.e. forming reads based solely on the false assumption that I'm scum
You've barely made any noticeable interactions. Only my boring town read is based on you being scum.
If you want him to explain other reads, you should probably ask him to explain other reads!
@Shadow_step
Would you like to help Lil Uzi Vert out by explaining some of your other reads? Personally I am most interested in your read on Grendel, whom I was reading as Town early but haven't revisited in a bit.
Well, boring voted for eagerSnake, so am I now to understand that you think eagerSnake is Mafia again?
I'll also want details about why you think that this particular interaction makes them both Mafia.
---
I'm trying not to clutter the thread, so that's it for me tonight.
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Post #1544 (isolation #48) » Sun Oct 16, 2016 7:48 am
Postby Dierfire »
I'm thinking that nn30 is likely to be Town for the vote in 690 (path of least resistance there is to vote for eagerSnake if both were Town, and I still think that Shadow_step as Mafia has many better options than countering the claim from eagerSnake).
The next significant fork in the road is whether boring was Town or Mafia.
@Shadow_step
I thought that you had boring as Town primarily for interactions with eagerSnake. What is your reasoning for reading her as Town now?
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Post #1547 (isolation #49) » Sun Oct 16, 2016 7:56 am
Postby Dierfire »
@Shadow_step
In post 1545, Shadow_step wrote:What are your thoughts on implosuon?
Do you know why I'm voting him?
I thought that reasons given for reading implosion as Mafia were unpersuasive (1298). I don't recall addressing your suspicions at that time, so I don't remember what they were.
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Post #1659 (isolation #50) » Mon Oct 17, 2016 5:08 pm
Postby Dierfire »
@implosion
In post 1651, implosion wrote:@dierfire: last think I see you say about boring is that you've read up on her but don't find anything really alignment indicative. What do you think of her after the eager+maria townflips, and/or why don't you agree with my points on her?
Obviously the death of MariaR is a minor point against boring (MariaR was voting for boring), but no more than a minor one.
I still don't see any evidence that she processed the conflict between eagerSnake and Shadow_step in a suspicious manner.
For your points:
You made the point (1068) that you don't see why boring would read eagerSnake as Town for the initial claim. I think that, from a probabilistic perspective, it makes more sense from a Town player claiming legitimately than from a Mafia player making a gamble (this is where I was after the initial claim). Whether that was a reason sufficient to justify the apparent strength of the read given by boring is a matter best answered by boring (I, for example, had eagerSnake as one of my weaker reads); I looked to 73 for an answer and it seemed that boring thought the claim sufficient that eagerSnake would either die or be held in suspicion for living. Therefore none of the reaction from boring to the second claim seemed out of place to me. In fact, of all the players that wanted to lynch eagerSnake after the second claim from Shadow_step, boring had the most prior evidence that her read on eagerSnake was primarily based on the first claim.
You also made the point that boring seemed artificially rather than genuinely unconcerned about the wagon forming on her. To assess this, I would look at her attempts to read those voting for her (if she is genuine that the wagon on her is in part a positive thing because it informs the alignments of players on the wagon, she should show evidence of trying to use that information). She had appropriate questions out to nn30 (1266, 1363, especially 1382) and Gamma Emerald (1365). She appears to have made some attempt to read you as well (1555, 1609) and to have revisited Gamma Emerald in 1610. I was hoping to have a deeper analysis from her with the results of those inquiries; I will prompt her directly.
You made the third point (1463) that boring had a "tepid" response (1453) to the suggestion from eagerSnake that we pass on the lynch. It seems clear to me that boring was demonstrating that better play from eagerSnake as Town would have been to push for lynching boring rather than no lynch at all (I don't read "are you suggesting that we give a free kill to the Mafia?" as a serious question but rather as a rhetorical one). I've no problem with the tenor of her response; I acknowledge your argument that it sounds "detached" but find this unpersuasive as a reason to vote for boring.
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Post #1660 (isolation #51) » Mon Oct 17, 2016 5:08 pm
Postby Dierfire »
@boring
You seemed to suggest that you would be able to make useful information from the wagon on you (1037). You've made defenses against the arguments offered by nn30 and implosion (1614); would it be accurate to say that you found implosion the more suspicious of the two (for reasons given in 1609)? Would it be accurate to say that you found implosion the most suspicious of all those players who voted for you?
Also, I'm not seeing that Lil Uzi Vert voted for you. I assume therefore that you find Lil Uzi Vert more suspicious than the most suspicious player who voted for you (presumptively implosion, otherwise specify the player)?
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Post #1662 (isolation #52) » Mon Oct 17, 2016 5:16 pm
Postby Dierfire »
I'd rather vote for Gamma Emerald than for PenguinPower or Lil Uzi Vert.
I'm still assessing whether I'd prefer to vote for Gamma Emerald than for boring.
I guess that for the purpose of clarity I'll put my vote on Gamma Emerald for now.
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Post #1756 (isolation #53) » Tue Oct 18, 2016 8:33 pm
Postby Dierfire »
@Gamma Emerald
In post 1669, Gamma Emerald wrote:Also, I think me putting up a promise of a case of why me and Eager can't be buddies pretty much clears me now that he flipped town.
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Post #1757 (isolation #54) » Tue Oct 18, 2016 8:34 pm
Postby Dierfire »
@Grendel
In post 1729, Grendel wrote:I'd like to know more about why boring is 2nd scum for you when you found most the other players cases on her uncompelling.
Is the crux of your case that she finds LUV scummier then Implosion, when through PoE she should be on Implosion?
How do you feel about Implosion?
It would not be accurate to say that boring is a Mafia read for me. I am having difficulty finding clues as to her alignment, and I feel that many proposed reasons to be suspicious of her do not hold water (this is not the same as reading her as Town). The reason that I am placing such a priority on determining her alignment is that, as one of the leading D1 wagons, her alignment carries significant information about the state of the game at that time.
I've exhausted my time for now, but I'll be back tomorrow and will discuss implosion at that time.
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Post #1762 (isolation #55) » Wed Oct 19, 2016 2:54 am
Postby Dierfire »
@Gamma Emerald
In post 1759, Gamma Emerald wrote:Why would I put up a defense on allegations of me and Eager being on a scum team if I was scum and knew he was town? I'd let the matter slide.
Ha ha, but you didn't put up a defense! You just promised that one would be forthcoming after the flip (and the flip obviated the need for the defense).
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Post #1808 (isolation #56) » Thu Oct 20, 2016 2:49 pm
Postby Dierfire »
@Gamma Emerald
In post 1764, Gamma Emerald wrote:I said "I have evidence that me and Eager are not scumbuddies" and he flipped town. Why the fuck would I say that as scum?
I'd just be like "okay I know I'm safe from this point so just forget about it".
It indicates I did not know his alignment before the flip, clearing me.
I will argue that the underlined is precisely what you have done!
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I read the case presented by Grendel in 1769. I haven't read the off-site game in question (yet, probably I will not do so at all as Gamma Emerald seems not to dispute the facts but rather to argue that he didn't have sufficient experience with Grendel to read him as well as Grendel seems to think he should have). The depth of the case reassures me about Grendel and encourages me in my vote on Gamma Emerald.
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I don't like that Lil Uzi Vert hasn't cast a vote yet today. My next task is reading Lil Uzi Vert; this will happen within roughly 24 hours.
This VC is where I'm starting.
So, eagerSnake is Town and 4/5 players on the boring wagon are Town. Although it's clear to me that my reads have not been superb in this game, I still think that Shadow_step is close to mechanistically clear by virtue of his claim.
If boring is Town, it's unlikely that the Mafia players would find a reason to avoid her wagon (makes nn30 more suspicious) and it makes PenguinPower the most suspicious player on the eagerSnake wagon. Lil Uzi Vert remains the most suspicious of the players on neither wagon.
If boring is Mafia, it makes nn30 less suspicious and probably increases the chances that we're looking at something like: boring, either PenguinPower or Grendel, and one of the players on neither wagon.
PenguinPower and Lil Uzi Vert are fairly suspicious regardless of whether boring is Town or Mafia. PenguinPower is more suspicious than Grendel, which makes him a better guess for a second Mafia player working with boring to oppose her wagon and a better guess for a single Mafia player on the eagerSnake wagon. Lil Uzi Vert is more suspicious than Zoronos and Prism, which makes him a good guess for Mafia unless all Mafia players are on the important wagons.
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Post #1914 (isolation #59) » Sat Oct 22, 2016 1:01 pm
Postby Dierfire »
@Zoronos
In post 1592, Zoronos wrote:PenguinPower - He put his vote on Eager quite promptly after the claim, then did nothing to try and figure out which side was telling the truth. He responded to some questions about himself (his secondary read being Gamma) and otherwise reiterated over and over to lynch Snake. Of particular note - I don't feel Penguin can be scum with either Grendel or Boring.
Do you still feel that PenguinPower is unlikely to be Mafia with Grendel or boring?