Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]

[Shirou]

huh, that ended up being a wall anyway

but dunno how I could make it any shorter hmmm

well either way that's it, I kinda played a bit with a ~scum mindset~ by being survivalistic, and it's fine if you all think I should be eliminated later for it (I know, kinda defeatist as I accused Imaginality but at this point I do believe I'm objectively not a bad elimination on other people's pov), however...yeah just vote someone else for today please?

That's all I wanted to say in regards to my claim/my posts yesterday.

[Shirou]

about my reads today...hm, I'm less confident but I still mostly believe there's scum in Tejate/GL/Morph yeah.

[Shirou]

I'll be honest though, I get a scummy vibe from fua and would probably be suspecting them if it wasn't for the doc save, but I also know voting they here at all is kinda gamethrowing bad if it turns out we're wrong, so I believe mathematically speaking is just better to let they win if they are scum that gambited here on N1.

Like, Meg even said the above yesterday and now Amazon dies, Amazon was a sensible NK either way for me, but it would also make sense for scum!fua to target them to ~confirm~ themselves more with the gambit.

Forget I ever talked about this from now on though, I doubt I would ever vote fua here in any scenario.

[Shirou]

I sincerely believe we should stop massclaiming as well as I said before.

Also...I think it'll affect one idea I've for tomorrow. But blah, I guess you would need to trust me and you kinda don't.

Either way, I'm checking GL tonight yes.

See you, gonna have dinner now.

[Shirou]

(not sure if I should vote GL today though...he's valuable if town)

[Shirou]

I'd be a lot more trusting of your intent to cop GL if you hadn't worked so damn hard to knock the wheels off the redtea wagon on day 1, and went so overboard pushing a no-elim yesterday.

yeah hm, I don't have a comeback to that except...a kind of argument that no one here would buy?

therefore, since no one would buy it I'm gonna put on a spoiler, up to each one if they want to read or not (I warned!)

Spoiler:

eh my unique comeback to that is...I doubt I would be in this kind of position here if I was scum...?

I'm not

that

dumb, even if I wanted to protect redtea if they were my partner, I could simply push Imaginality harder rather than constantly trying to defend accusations to redtea. What I did here would be a very poor way of trying to deflect suspicious on your buddy.

Hmm, I think NSG overestimate my scum game but maybe you should at least believe her words a bit in the extent of "he can't possibly be THIS bad/obvious as scum right?"

/shrug

Even if you argue I may have done it as WIFOM, that kind of risky wifom only works with people that know you and expect better from you, but I've literally no experience with most of this playerlist.

Oh well, I know it's the kind of argument no one buys until postgame though. But at least future advice for future games maybe?

[Shirou]

I've skimmed Shirou's wall and still need to actually read it closer and digest the arguments being made but like

dude, if you are town, in this game and in all future games with me can you please cut any of this gambit shit and acting or whatever? your reads are not as good as you think they are, and being manipulative to achieve whatever ends you want based on your reads just winds up making you look... manipulative, and leads to you now having to write these long ass walls where you're explaining ~ secret motivations ~ to what you were doing. it just makes your slot fundamentally harder to read and harder to trust.

like all of this is basically what you would need to say if you were scum and had a meltdown about your buddy being eliminated, right? so why am I supposed to prefer an explanation where you're actually town ~ gambiting ~ instead of just scum playing to a scum-agenda?

ultimately you claim to have done all this because you think I'm scum who was going to try to eliminate you today. I'm not scum, and if you hadn't been defending and townreading redtea so hard and just helped lim them I probably wouldn't have been suspecting you at all today. instead, none of any of your play around redtea or Tejate/myself has felt like it helped us find scum or do anything productive, the only thing you have accomplished so far was making yourself a massive obstacle towards limming Actual Scum yesterday

I didn't do this because I think my reads are super good at all? It's precisely because I thought redtea was more likely town than not but was afraid of being wrong that I did all of this?

Even if you're town GL, or Tejate town, it wouldn't make much difference? You could miseliminate me even if you're both town, and I just wanted to avoid that one scenario with the least amount of effort possible. I literally did all this to avoid my miselimination before my result in the worst case scenario, not because I necessarily think you're scum in all scenarios here...? I don't think you got my point there but it's fine.

I do agree though that it's a pain in the ass to read that kind of stuff from a third person's pov, and also that I negatively impacted the game by delaying redtea elimination. That part is my bad.

[Shirou]

Sorry if it felt that way to anyone else as well. I don't think my reads are good at all. That's why I did it...I was afraid of being wrong and being the miselimination today before I could out my result.

Honestly it kinda made me sad now that you think that way of me GL, but it's fine, I guess it's not an unreasonable way to view it...

[Shirou]

I didn't even start suspecting you until after you started accusing me of being scummy regardless of any of redtea, Meg, or Tejate's alignments. Which I called out as a fundamentally disingenuous way of treating me. YOU were the one playing to a trajectory, not me

First you were focusing on implosion yes, but I said above I disliked both your trajectory on me *and* on implo. I'll admit it may sound hypocritical to suspect you for something similar I did to you, but the issue is I didn't dislike the action per se. For example Implo was kinda like "Shirou can be scum even if I only mostly have reasons to town read them", and I had no issue with that.

It's just...the way you were going about it? It felt calculated, as if you were focusing so much on implo and later on me because you already knew what redtea was gonna flip so you were preparing on advance how to switch to voting those slots later, be it if redtea flips town by accusing us of "you had TMI", or if redtea flipped scum by accusing us of "you were defending your buddy".

I simply felt like you had an agenda when talking about redtea, me and implo. It felt as if all of it was done so that your trajectory later on would have been solid when looked at hindsight.

[Shirou]

if you are an N3 cop and I am scum, regardless of whether I believe you are going to vote no elim or not, regardless of whether I think you are viable to miseliminate, why do I not just kill you on N2 and guarantee you can't get a cop check off?

I thought maybe I would have died on night 2 now for this reason, but I also think scum doesn't have many miseliminations here, so in this scenario my slot is probably important to them. Even if scum didn't do it on night 2, they can try to miseliminate me on day 3 and if all fails try to NK me on night 3. There's certainly explanations here, otherwise I would have stopped suspecting you.

[Shirou]

I didn't even start suspecting you until after you started accusing me of being scummy regardless of any of redtea, Meg, or Tejate's alignments. Which I called out as a fundamentally disingenuous way of treating me. YOU were the one playing to a trajectory, not me

First you were focusing on implosion yes, but I said above I disliked both your trajectory on me *and* on implo. I'll admit it may sound hypocritical to suspect you for something similar I did to you, but the issue is I didn't dislike the action per se. For example Implo was kinda like "Shirou can be scum even if I only mostly have reasons to town read them", and I had no issue with that.

It's just...the way you were going about it? It felt calculated, as if you were focusing so much on implo and later on me because you already knew what redtea was gonna flip so you were preparing on advance how to switch to voting those slots later, be it if redtea flips town by accusing us of "you had TMI", or if redtea flipped scum by accusing us of "you were defending your buddy".

I simply felt like you had an agenda when talking about redtea, me and implo. It felt as if all of it was done so that your trajectory later on would have been solid when looked at hindsight.

please cite specific posts

...

too much effort GL, I already said I don't intend to effort that much here back in D2.

Just vote me if you want after tonight. Also I think there's a decent chance you're scum anyway so engaging you on your read on me may be wasted effort.

[Shirou]

If you are town, then whatever the hell this gambit is... you overcorrected greatly.

hmm

probably

[Shirou]

VOTE: Morph

I'm assuming Tejate is kinda out of the pool today as well for being able to guarantee fua gets a night result. Unless we do massclaim, that could change my mind about Tejate but yeah...and I don't think massclaim is a good idea but up to all of you.

Gonna do dailies and it seems I fulfilled my duty for now, probably not gonna post a lot today, see you.

Spoiler: me being silly

I'm genuinely sad about some stuff GL said if he's town but...okay.

I did all this because I wanted to avoid ever being today miselimination if I was wrong on redtea (which I was, and if I was miseliminated before copping someone, I would be

double

the negative utility for town), but somehow you think it's because I believe my reads are really good...? when it was the exact opposite...?

...

okay...

[Shirou]

You can be as hurt as you like about my reaction to be fake-guiltied.

And can be as wrong as you wanna be about our alignment.

It's going to be a fact in evidence, though, and you're never going to have the mafia moral high ground over us in this game. We're completely justified in our opinion of your play.

hm, I should go away but

this is the first post from morph I felt like it comes from town!morph more often than scum!morph?

moral high ground...would scum use that specific kind of word? I think they would fake indignation but this way of phrasing it would be peculiar as scum I think

maybe I should start trusting other people reads rather than my own...especifically Amazon's read on Morph. I think they thought the slot was more likely town than not although never much confident on it.

UNVOTE:

I dunno who to vote outside of GL/Tejate/Morph though...Meg?

(GL because I'm cop checking him tonight and Tejate because he's a claimed n3 doctor so fua is gonna obligatorily have a check as long as they are alive, unless they decide to be confirmed scum for a 1:1 trade with fua)

I did all this because I wanted to avoid ever being today miselimination if I was wrong on redtea

how does making yourself look painfully like redtea's scumbuddy do this

hmm, by giving a good mech reason to let my slot alive just for today...?

it's fine if I die later on, I kinda thought it would be inevitable if redtea was scum...

[Shirou]

Actually I think everyone should keep claiming. Why listen to Shirou?

ouch...

sigh

numberq

please

I'm begging you and anyone with the same idea...

it's fine to eliminate me and scum read me even if I come up with a guilty tomorrow, but please not today.

[Shirou]

You've no idea how much I want to actually leave and die in this game

but...just not today. Tomorrow okay? Pretty please?

The PoE scum pool here is getting so small that we either win with cops checks or we find out some of the believed claims are false. Please don't let me ruin that by being miseliminated today, I would feel even more guilty than I already feel about my poor play here.

[Shirou]

Shirou's posts seem to me to be the equivalent of "aha, it was just a jolly jape"? And, yeah, it seems like precisely how he would have at this point forced himself to play as scum

you guys have really low expectations of my scum play huh...

[Shirou]

If you are scum, I think it would be a bad idea to let you live another day. It will mean a wasted day as we mull over your fake result. Even if we quick lim you, what does that gain us over getting rid of scum today? And I don't like the idea of giving you another chance to NK someone to try and turn perception away from limming you tomorrow.

literally no nightkill would make people change their minds about me

about "wasting a day"...go on and consider me scum and hunt for my partner. There's still 2 scum left, not one. You would want to reduce the pool of partners down, no?

If you're SO CONFIDENT that I'm scum, there's no reason to not treat me as if I had already flipped (and had flipped scum in your imagination I guess), and today you were hunting for my last buddy.

It's so weird that you're this confident on me being scum that you would rather risk not getting a cop result at all if wrong rather than just wait a bit before eliminating me.

[Shirou]

I can always just investigate Shirou tonight. Worst case scenario mafia kills a suspected person anyway.

If you're gonna investigate me you shouldn't confirm it publicly at all

If it's confirmed you would investigate me, scum best option is simply to nk me and waste both your result as well as deny my result. That's two wasted cop results, therefore if you investigate me and scum NK me, they "mechanically win" N3. If you make me investigating me just a possibility, scum will need to decide if they NK me or not tonight, since even if I was left alive as a miselimination initially on N2, maybe you'll confirm me tomorrow and that would mean my cop result would also be universally trusted.

If scum NK me and you didn't check at all...I kinda think it's a good thing.

[Shirou]

how does the scum player that plays my D1/early D2 also think it's a good idea for your long-term survival to play like in the end of D2?

This is so stupid honestly...just remember for future games reference.

Unless I'm playing mind games with people that know me well and expect a

lot

better from me (which are rare, because they would be simply overestimating me), if I look this bad upon a gambit or weak partner flip, I'm just

ALWAYS

town. Get that through your thick heads upon my flip please and thank you.

I'm dumb but not dumb enough to throw the credibility of my slot as scum for literally the weakest possible partner in this game (due to the fact they were the consensus scum read since D1, and weren't even TRYING to play the game).

but whatever, I just want to die here and be relieved of my duty to post, so try to just quiet down that burning flame of wanting to do something mechanically really suboptimal and maybe tomorrow I can even self-vote just to get this over with.

[Shirou]

I consider myself self-aware of my meta and this stuff you're scum reading me is literally the towniest thing in my entire ISO. Everything else you were reading me for before is kinda meh, as long as I had energy (which honestly I don't have much nowadays as it's beginning to show but still) I could easily do it as scum.

I'm not gonna be unreasonable, I don't expect you to know my meta that well at all, I don't expect anything at all on that point about all of you, however I also reserve the right to just feel in even more apathy towards this game than I already had in D2 now.

so after I flip, If you think this whole gambit was to make me survive until endgame if I was scum I'm speechless, I was clearly town just tired of this game and wanted to avoid the worst case scenarios in the easiest way possible. I was dragging myself to post through D2 and I had to write so much (and therefore lose so much time) to reply to everyone that it was affecting my IRL stuff. That was it. Maybe it backfired, not sure since even while everyone scum reads me, there's still only one vote on me for now, but either way that was what I had in mind back then.

[Shirou]

I used to have a lot more time in my hands but only now I realize how posting as frequently as I used to is just near impossible if you don't want to burn all your free time on mafia (and I don't nowadays). So after this game I'll either learn how to lurk *a lot* more, or maybe go on in another break.

That's why my D1 started strong and my play began to get worse each day. I was feed up with wasting so much time here explaining myself or etc, and I'm hoping this is last ditch effort I need to do in this game before I die; hopefully convince you to just let me alive for today, and go hunt for my "partner" or something.

If even after all this you're unconvinced to not vote me for today...sigh, whatever I guess. Just don't blame me for being today miselimination on postgame.

You can certainly blame me for not keeping up my good play from D1 and making you suspect me and waste a miselimination on me, but I don't think it's fair to blame me for not being able to get my cop result when it's just that simple to go hunt for my potential partner rather than vote me today.

All this "gambit", claiming early and etc, was just to make me survive until tonight. You may think it's scummy, you can think it's bad, suboptimal, etc. It's all reasonable to hold that opinion about it, but you can't look at it and say that my objective with all of this was to endgame rather than just survive D3, and scum objective is to endgame, not survive a meaningless day/night for them.

Even if you do scum read me so strongly to ignore that unique point (which is fine really), sorry you're wrong, I'm town, so can we collectively ignore me just for today? Thank you.

[Shirou]

okay that's it. If someone votes me after this I think I've nothing left to say I guess.

Back to my reads...hm, Morph or Meg and I'm kinda leaning Meg I think, but morph weirdly doesn't think meg is scum so...

[Shirou]

Also why would scum just not kill you right now anyway? You’re talking as if you know you’ll be around tomorrow.

Because I think I'll? I would be a bit surprised if scum NKs me.

Yesterday whether I was a possible miselimination or not was still a bit less obvious, but today it's VERY obvious that even if I came up with a guilty, I would be the first to go. If we believe most claims so far, scum doesn't have a lot of room to hide here, every miselimination is rather important for them.

That's the unique way for me to make sense of me not dying in N2, and therefore I don't think they would suddenly change their mind about what to do with my slot on N3?

I also would perhaps NK a slot like me if scum depending on circumstances, but they didn't so it shows that they probably plan to keep me around even if I'll get a cop shot off it.

There's also something else I've been thinking but it's suboptimal to say it aloud.

[Shirou]

Lost opportonity to claim you will check Shirou but instead check someone else.

yeah that was actually the best plan but I don't think fua was considering it so I just explained it publicly...

[Shirou]

Lost opportonity to claim you will check Shirou but instead check someone else.

yeah that was actually the best plan but I don't think fua was considering it so I just explained it publicly...

Why in the world would I tell the truth about who I’m going to check?

hm, dunno, I just assume people leashing their targets are going to be honest?

/shrug

I also secretly think it's kinda sub-optimal to check me either way when I still can theoretically be the NK in any given case (I think we've more to lose than to gain by checking me tonight, as in, if I get checked and NK'd, we're in really a bad place), so I thought explaining it was better even if you were just poking at it, better safe than sorry or something?

[Shirou]

It was probably because I'm honest about my claimed targets so I probably often assume other people are but I guess it's dumb to think like that

[Shirou]

VOTE: Meg

either this or morph for me.

I don’t know why you think scum would equate a cop claim to a cop claim that has results. One is far more fearsome than the other and your play yesterday didn’t inspire confidence. Best case scenario here is that you’re town and you’re gonna die tonight.

hmm, hopefully I guess? but I claimed that I was N3, so if they were planning to kill me ever, I think it was a much better shot to do it at N2 where we already had 2 N2 doctors outed as not targeting me, and added to that I looked rather scummy due to redtea flip so I doubt any extra doctors would protect me yesterday.

However tonight is when I get my results...it's more reasonable to expect a doc targeting me now, so would they risk it at all?

Maybe I'm also imposing my own mindset as scum in the scum team here, since if I was scum and planned to kill a slot in the same situation than mine, I would always do it at N2 rather than risk waiting until the very night they can get a result (especially when a doc save also gives another elimination to town), but yeah, maybe I get NK'd I guess.

If you end up flipping town tomorrow morning then I think it’s safe to say scum were banking on you being miselimmed today. So either way I kind of agree that you shouldn’t be limmed at least for today. Making the mafia waste a NK is much more helpful.

yeah, I think similarly about this point.

[Shirou]

I don’t think it’s Meg.

I was kinda a bit confident on morph being scum since D1 but since I was wrong on so much this game, I'm kinda losing confidence I had anything right at all...

[Shirou]

I would compromisse on morph though if it ends up being the wagon for today

[Shirou]

honestly I'm just waiting for someone else to lead this day since my contributions so far weren't helpful...I think it's the kind of game where I need to shut up.

Which actually makes me sad that GL regardless of alignment seems to think I believe my reads to be good/special. Like...I'm so lost in this game, all of this is the result of me being a bit lost here, but hmm, okay I guess.

[Shirou]

I probably could compromise for almost everyone for today, except Ceph/Fua/Implo.

[Shirou]

Shirou do you think mafia keeps you alive to start claiming Cops intensive on next day to throw chaos party?

Because it's what i think they planning.

you're treating me with so much goodwill that it almost brings a tear to my eye kkkk

thank you, really.

hmm, about the massclaim thing though, I don't think they would necessarily leave me alive for only that at all, but it's true that in my opinion, they could direct their nightkills a lot better if they know how many docs there are and who they are gonna be leashed into. Therefore I think they may not lead the massclaim suggestion as fua is doing, but I most certainly think they would agree to it.

If another person gets saved at night, we get an extra elimination. Since they already have one scum down and there's quite a number of trusted claims already, I think that's the most threatening mechanical part of this game right now. Fua does have a point though that maybe depending on role distribution, we could coordinate better knowing everyone roles, but hmm...I think it's a bit of a coin flip. Maybe massclaim can help us and maybe it can rob us of potential future advantages. Considering we already have now two cops and one doctor claimed (and one of the cops is suspected so a NK there isn't objectively bad), I think we should wait to massclaim on D4 or so, but again, I don't think my words hold much weight here...

I think their plan on leaving me alive is mostly to simply miseliminate me, preferentially today before I get a result, which is why I'm trying to fight off/defend myself for now on D3.

[Shirou]

I probably could compromise for almost everyone for today, except Ceph/Fua/Implo.

Replace Implo with Enchant.

after that post filled with goodwill towards me I could kkk, but not replace implo though...maybe add enchant to that list, but not replace Implo.

I've no idea how scum!Enchant plays though, their posts so far are good but I don't understand the confidence people have at the moment on them being town, however...I was also wrong for most of this game so far, so I believe I should trust others reads a bit more here.

I guess the list is now Ceph/Fua/Implo/Enchant then. I'll give you that if I'm wrong on someone in that list, the first person to come to mind is implo, but I don't think it's the case...I can't help but relate to their position on redtea since I was the same.

[Shirou]

But mafia already know how many docs and cops in game?

yes but they don't know who they are exactly right?

they can guess based on role distribution, but they can't nightkill with one hundred percent precision if they don't know the roles of everyone. For example, right now they don't know if there's an extra N3 doctor or not. There's a chance a save may happen today, but if we massclaim and leash the doctors, it's never happening.

[Shirou]

I mulled on it over night and I guess it does make sense to leave Shirou alive today. It gives me a lot of pause though because the biggest proponent of that plan is the person who's at the chopping block. So if Shirou is scum that means Shirou getting out this investigation factors into scum's plans somehow. But idk, maybe it's just desperation to last as long as possible.

Actually, even if Shirou isn't scum, there hasn't been much push to lim him today besides from me, and I don't think that would be a difficult mislim to pull off. Which means either way him surviving to tomorrow is part of scum's plan.

hmm. I'm gonna leave my vote here but I plan to look back and focus on who the other scum might be.

thank you

[Shirou]

I think scum doesn't want to push too hard for my miselimination today because it would be a bad look when I flip cop, so they are most likely expressing willingness to vote me, but perhaps not trying to lead the wagon on me to not be responsible tomorrow. I think they have been mostly testing room temperature for me today, regardless of who they are.

If you kept pushing it until the end of the day NQ, I may have given you some town points even though I think it would be a problematic stance to have for today, but either way I like the fact you backed down even if it's also what I believe scum!NQ would do after seeing not much support for me today.

[Shirou]

I would literally bet the entire game on Enchant being town.

hmm, okay, I'll trust your read on them in that case. I also want to trust Amazon read on Morph but uh...I don't think they were town reading morph that strongly.

[Shirou]

U don't really understand what so special in my goodwill post like i just post idk.

the special thing about your post is that you're not openly treating me as "almost confirmed scum" as most other people are. You may think it's the case as well but the way you engaged me is different from everyon else, it's how one engages someone that they want to genuinely chat with rather than ~kinda chat~ while keeping their distance due to suspicion, or trying to dissect all my points for accusations.

Amazon was kinda similar, but now they are unfortunately dead, so now it's kinda only you. It's still a relief to be listened in goodfaith by even one single person though, so that's why I said thank you.



It's kinda rather demotivating when literally no one is interested on what you've to say other than to try to use it to accuse you further. It feels like your opinions/reads no long matter so why bother...

[Shirou]

I don't have much experience in being in this position to be honest, especially as town. Maybe I'm getting a bit emotional, but it also makes me wonder if I should change how I approach my scum reads, because I'm of course often wrong on them, and one of my "tactics" to wagon them is to try to hurt their credibility so that people stop taking what they say seriously, either due to suspicious or exposing some logical inconsistency in their argument. I think it's an effective way to do it, but it's also...hm, not the nicest way to do it when you're wrong. I can see that now, I feel bad for Imaginality.

[Shirou]

not to uh, use what you have to say to accuse further, but this is just AtE

kkkk this is kinda exactly what I was talking about but it's fine, it's part of the game, just a tiring one.

if you're town there's two scum left to find, but instead you're still making everything about yourself and saying "why bother" playing?? certainly you have to understand you've lost some credibility by pushing imaginality and defending redtea so hard, but that doesn't mean nothing you do matters anymore especially if you wind up flipping town

stop posting self defenses and start scumhunting, no one is limming you today by virtue of your claim you have a free day, and you're still just pumping out wall after wall about why you don't play this way as scum, which is virtually useless. that's why I haven't been interested in what you have to say, defending yourself is literally the least valuable thing you could be doing for me right now

It's true I did self-defend myself quite a bit but uh...I was just discussing up until now Enchant being town with fua, what I think would be a scum stance today, if massclaim is good or not, etc. This is a bit disingenuous, I've been defending myself but I've also been talking about other stuff.

About Morph, just like you I think it's odd that they believe you could ride the fake guilty to a elimination before fua revealed it was fake, however they also seem really sensitive about fake guilties, so it's not impossible that they think it's a possible move for scum!guiltylion in their head, even if most other people would disagree it's a feasible plan. So...it's kinda dependent on whether I believe they truly are this sensitive to fake guilties, and I don't think I can answer that without researching a bit of their meta, right now I could only try to guess at most. I've been thinking about it but no conclusion so far so I didn't comment on it.

About Ceph saying it's the kind of thing scum would indignant about, I kinda agree that Morph would react strongly as scum to this as well, but they seem to be playing the "moral"/"ethical" quite a bit, and that part specifically is what makes me think that maybe, and just maybe, it's a town point for the slot? They would get indignant about it as scum but would they think it's "unethical"? It's the first thing about the slot that I could reasonably call towny from a certain pov. I kinda maintain my initial take.

[Shirou]

also, you say you townread implo because you had such similar feelings that redtea was town - do you think it's not possible at all that you were getting buddied there? I'm having a hard time intuitively feeling out who is your POE suspect pool - morph, Meg, myself? I know you don't like my interactions with redtea because you think I was too sure they were scum, what do you think of Morph and Meg's?

maybe implo did buddy me, but I don't have any particular good reason to suspect it's the case vs us two being town having a mindmeld. It doesn't feel like they are trying to pocket me very much, they never even threw me a town lean or town read when I was a consensus one.

Morph/Meg's interactions with redtea are...uh, not very relevant? The unique thing of note I remember about morph/redtea is that morph was kinda trying to prevent a hammer (not sure if I'm misremembering though), which I guess is objectively +scum points for them, but Meg's is...really meh? Meg had both ydra/redtea as scum reads for "coasting through the game", but they mostly only focused on ydra, and even back in D1 where redtea was begin wagoned, they voted for ydra rather than put pressure on redtea.

I said back then it was a bit of a weird trajectory (voting a vanity wagon vs putting pressure on someone you scum read and has a proper wagon on), and I still maintain that take, it's my main reason to scum read Meg since D1, so that's why I'm not talking much about my PoE. Redtea flip doesn't make anyone on it townier, and it's almost a PoE based on the fact I believe most claims so far. I think NQ dropped a bit on my read list, and Enchant ascended, but it's probably my bias.

There's really...not a lot new to talk in my opinion by this point on my scum reads. It kinda feels like we're getting close to PoE, and we either can win through that or we'll find out that one of the claims so far is false.

[Shirou]

like, with the exception of my slot, I think we've had roughly the same pool of suspects since D1. I kinda talked extensively already through my ISO about Morph, Meg, Tejate, GuiltyLion.

If it was up to me I would genuinely begin quick eliminations on the pool. We're kinda talking in circles when we talk about scum reads. That's why I'm not talking that much about it aside from the fact I also want to let other people lead the dayphase more.

[Shirou]

hmm

this game needs less talking and more votes imo so

VOTE: morph

really sorry if wrong morph

[Shirou]

that's not a bad plan implo, I was also worried about the same thing, and I find that post of yours rather town due to it really looking like a cop worried about wasting a night action.

[Shirou]

you can give me a pool like you and fua for argument sake but just make sure there's GL on there I guess. I really doubt I'll change my mind that he's the best target for tonight but the pool thing is a good idea even if mostly useless in my case.

[Shirou]

ah, now that I think about it, my unique other suggestion for the plan is that I get added to fua's pool specifically. Why?

Even if implo investigated me, I believe most people are so suspicious of me that they would rather believe it's a scum team of implo + me than taking the claim at face value. I believe if implo checked me and claimed I was green, he may be miseliminated. The unique person that would probably not be likely miseliminated by claiming I'm green, is fua I think.

But, /shrug if there's an issue with this. I don't think so but...

[Shirou]

the persecution complex.

huh?

no I just want to avoid implosion being miseliminated, I really think he's town. If it was any other slot I wouldn't care.

[Shirou]

I think as long as the "town core" of Fua/Ceph/Enchant/Implo isn't miseliminated and is also correct (as in they are all town), this game has good odds of being mech won, so I'm trying to avoid a scenario that goes against this.

[Shirou]

Are we seriously mass claiming today?

I think by this point any other n3 cops should claim, but everyone else no imo.

[Shirou]

well, I'll let you and fua sort out the groups/pools and then I /confirm it later. You can leave me with the unpicked slots out of you two.

Maybe we should do a draft order starting with fua?

[Shirou]

I also think an Enchant check isn't really needed
But -_()_-

On second thought Implosion’s list basically just guarantees that Shirou is targeting GL which I think goes against the point of this in the first place.

hm

I hadn't noticed it before but true kkkk

well if that's the case, @implosion, want to trade one of your targets with me? although it's not really necessary either I guess considering my circumstances.

[Shirou]

Sure. I also think it's best to swap nQ/Meg. So how does this look:

Shirou: GL/numberQ
fua: implosion/Shirou/Tejate
implosion: morph/Meg

fine by me

also, we're probably eliminating morph so fua probably should get my slot

[Shirou]

hm, yawn

nothing interesting since I last posted

kinda surprised GL is arguing for a NQ elimination rather than morph though

[Shirou]

This game plot twists are unending.

[Shirou]

Fua, I can only give you GL if you leash on him. Only him, no WIFOM, since you can't possibly die.

Also...if you take me GL off me like this I want you added in my potential cop pool as well. So my pool would be morph/NQ/fua.

[Shirou]

also, I think no elimination is a grave mistake. And if you talk about how I had suggested no elimination yesterday, re:read my ISO because I already explained that before.

[Shirou]

I didn't want to do this right now but if it's between no elimination, taking GL out of my cop list and voting GL today. I'm down to voting him today.

/shrug

VOTE: GuiltyLion

Morph let's go if you're town, put your vote back on GL?

[Shirou]

Also, what list would you suggest instead?

Shirou: GL
fua: implosion/Shirou/Meg
implosion: morph/Tejate/nQ

also no we aren't following a list suggestion from a suspect

it's either the cops themselves making suggestions or Ceph for me.

[Shirou]

also, I think no elimination is a grave mistake. And if you talk about how I had suggested no elimination yesterday, re:read my ISO because I already explained that before.

Uhhh

Please explain to me like I am a 5 year old how in your view it would have made sense to no elim yesterday prior to the redtea flip, or why you were trying to get everyone to agree to a no elim today, but now that redtea flipped scum, it's a "grave mistake"?

already explained in my ISO and if you can't find it /shrug

I'm not going back to explaining myself that much, in fact, didn't everyone complain when I did it...?

scum!Shirou is desperately trying to take advantage because he knows that every mis-elim counts at this point

uh...I was about to say how scummy it is to find a problem in me not trying to lose us the edge we've (even if it's a bit ~unlikely~, it's still very possible for us to gain an extra elimination as long as we eliminate everyday), but in hindsight if you think I'm that scummy...I guess that makes sense from your pov.

[Shirou]

In post 3148, Tejate Raichu wrote:

In post 3147, morph the cat wrote:

In post 3125, Shirou wrote:
Morph let's go if you're town, put your vote back on GL?



Trying to think of a sentence that would make me less interested in putting our vote back right now.

Coming up empty.

This might be the towniest thing you've done all day.



Trying to think of a sentence that would make me more interested in listening to Shiro.

uh

okay then I guess...

[Shirou]

VOTE: no elimination

if there's that much resistance to trying to get us an extra elimination which in a setup full of cops can literally be the difference between winning and losing, okay. Let's do no-lim then, but I think we'll regret it later.

this situation is getting kinda funny, I'm beginning to wonder what will be the reaction from my flip.

[Shirou]

so, this is the pools we're doing right?

Shirou: Morph/Implo
Fua: Shirou/GL/NQ
Implo: Meg/Tejate

except fua agreed to leash themselves to GL, so maybe Implo can have me in their pool and I do get NQ.

PS: Implo I really think you shouldn't investigate me as you'll probably be eliminated in disbelief but it's up to you I guess.

Therefore...

Shirou: Morph/Implo/NQ
Fua: GL
Implo: Meg/Tejate

?

[Shirou]

If anyone of the cops (not anyone else) have a problem with the above, do say so

personally I'm /confirming myself to the above but dunno about implo/fua.

say whether you /confirm it or not.

p-edit: okay

VOTE: unvote

[Shirou]

you putting no-elim at e-1 and then bolding new groups when people have said they're suspicious of you proposing groups is like, the single easiest way to lose the game if you're town and the single easiest way for you to create an out for yourself if you're scum.

uh sorry

it's just that I'm getting annoyed by listening to people saying I'm obvscum and etc

I'm not really putting much thought in this game right now

you're right

[Shirou]

wait a min though

that's not a suggestion I did. It was fua's. I'm simply agreeing to their requests and going with the flow.

You're also being a bit unfair to me here implo

[Shirou]

I'm tired of this dayphase already though

it may be a bit mean but I think everyone other than the cops themselves and perhaps Ceph should just stop making so much suggestions to the pool like that. It's impossible to cater to everyone's requests?

also if anyone else begins to say they are suspicious of me "recommending a pool", it was FUA'S IDEA.

[Shirou]

also implo, fua didn't yet double confirm it but they literally made the pools themselves, and agree to be leashed on GL already.

If you've time to post to shade me implo, can you actually post whether you agree to the pool or not?

There's quite literally...only you remaining unconfirmed to it more or less.

[Shirou]

it's something fua suggested and then other people said they didn't like it and would rather ceph suggest groups. I'm also tired of this dayphase. So let's have Ceph confirm what groups he's okay with in his next post, then you/me/fua all agree in our next posts, then we no-lim so that no one can claim that there was any funny business..

more waiting...sigh

okay

[Shirou]

I object to being in Shirou's pool.

I don't know why that change happened.

no one wants to be in my pool...like, is this even a valid complaint? sorry?

no one wants to be in my pool so is there any meaning to listening to requests like this...?

[Shirou]

am I supposed to cop check the mod or so? because if we do a "if you want to be in shirou's pool, raise your hands", we would end up with likely 0 volunteers.

[Shirou]

I investigated Meg, they are town.

Since I'm still alive, GL is also very likely town.

Yeah, me saying I would cop GL so much was kinda just wifom, which implosion was kinda right to suspect. I would truly think GL as my top suspect if redtea flipped town, but I knew if redtea flipped scum it would shake the read a bit, but I would still have reservations and suspicious about how adamant he was on redtea. I felt like it wasn't impossible at all that he simply knew redtea alignment from the start considering how he interacted with the slot.

Therefore since my slot was already damned anyway in D3, I kept my stance on GL and kept insisting on checking him so that even if a potential scum!he suspected I may simply be doing WIFOM, it would still be really risky to leave me alive, since I would get a guilty on him and therefore get scum team down to only one person remaining eventually.

I don't think in those circumstances, scum!GL would risk trading my slot one-for-one, but since I've already done this "oh it was all a sekret plan~" thing, I do think it's possible that he figured out it was simply WIFOM and gambited that I wouldn't check him. However...blah, I'm tired, I already did everything I could to try to solve his slot and it just looks like he's town. If he gambited and therefore now won the gamble, congratulations if he ends up winning as scum, I'll just consider him as town for the remain of the game I think.

[Shirou]

I think I was able to trade my slot for info on 2 slots in the end so...maybe I wasn't completely negative utility in this game I suppose...?

[Shirou]

so if Meg/GL/Tejate is town...huh, what that does leave us with anyway?

As I was beginning to suspect but not voice...maybe one of the claims widely believed is false.

p-edit: yeah

[Shirou]

like, there's Morph and who else left from the pool again?

[Shirou]

also I was happy on implo being town

so I'm happy kkkk

I was secretly getting scared I was wrong on literally everything in this game

[Shirou]

Are Shirou town...

hm, I've a lot less reservations about being miseliminated today. I kinda don't even have that much time right now for this game to keep defending myself

if it feels like the correct play to confirm the pool we've, although I'll fight a bit against it, I don't think I would be that opposed tbh...

/shrug

I know it's a defeatist attitude but really, I just wanted to get my check out + try to get info in the GL slot through this gamble. I'm satisfied with what I managed to accomplish to try to counter my bad play around redtea...

p-edit: I guess

[Shirou]

to be honest, I'll say one last thing before dipping out:

I really think fua may be scum in some universes of this game. Especially depending on whether they are or not who I kinda suspect they may be, NSG words about me being the person you should be most wary of as scum may be completely false.

I didn't want to do this call out but I low-key feel uncanny about the slot, but maybe it's just an easier solve and I'm begin too paranoid...

[Shirou]

:thonking:

hm...if that's really the case maybe disregard what I said I guess but hm...okay

[Shirou]

I agree that Meg shouldn't claim as well, dunno about Ceph, results are beginning to show that NQ may be scum.

[Shirou]

Cephrir, fua, GuiltyLion, morph the cat, MegAzumarill, numberQ, Shirou, Tejate Raichu, Enchant

I don't think you should include GL on this pool initially as well. Me being alive other than a huge gamble, does really point to him being town.

[Shirou]

The actual pool from a third pov should probably be [Shirou, Morph, NumberQ] for now

I know I'm town so it leaves me thinking there may be at least one scum in those two, if that's not literally the scum team.

[Shirou]

I've some reservations about a NumberQ/Ceph scum team doing that gambit on N1 to be honest. Not impossible but eh...I don't think Ceph being scum is very likely since it would need to be exactly NQ/Ceph.

[Shirou]

also my pet town read on NSG was right

that was fun

[Shirou]

honestly...Morph/NQ feels too easy

[Shirou]

how confident are people other than fua that Enchant is town?

I feel like this game can still kinda make sense if Enchant is scum with one of NQ/Morph

Other than that I believe eventually we need to get to WIFOM territory about the claims.

[Shirou]

Yeah, honestly I really think fua is scum here if it's not an easier solve inside of Enchant/NQ/Morph.

Maybe I can be wrong on GL and that would make this game more reasonable as well, but I...don't want to risk that. Everything at the moment kinda points to him begin town you know...it would have been a huge gamble if he was scum. /shrug.

(although somehow fua/GL also really makes a lot of sense to me considering fua play yesterday...)

[Shirou]

begin

being*

[Shirou]

but at the same time, ever risking an elimination on fua is gonna be so "gamethrowing bad" if I'm wrong that...

Yep, I'm leaving this on your hands, I don't want to touch that kkkkkk

the blaming on postgame if I'm wrong would be insane and understandable

p-edit: it was an intentional no night kill because scum!fua would have expected a doc to target them since they had claimed cop and were being town read

[Shirou]

It's like galaxy brain "OH WELL LET'S SKIP KILL AND HOPE SOME N1 DOC WILL HEAL ONE OF US"

yeah...and it's the kind of shit I would attempt to pull honestly?

I would try to get "mechanically confirmed" by a doc if I was scum here, and it's one of the "fun gambits" that I mentioned scum being able to do in this setup.

but blah

I shouldn't have talked about this yet for reasons, but I think this is my last day here so I just wanted to get my thoughts out.

[Shirou]

hopefully this game is easier than that, but like I told you, I already know I'm not scum, so the pool in my pov is conveniently Morph/NQ. If one of those is town, and Enchant isn't scum, (and GL is probably not scum...?), we've a...problem where any of the possible solves are all inherently based on WIFOM plays from scum.

[Shirou]

if we count on us miseliminating me today, we've 2 eliminations left.

so, how do we plan to bet on it? doing both of morph/NQ believing that there needs to be at least one scum there?

[Shirou]

I think the wifom pandora's box is going to be wide open when today ends.

kkkkkk, maybe.

[Shirou]

We have three futures.

Shirou is fake Cop.
NumberQ is fake Cop.
Both legit, then mafia team are exactly Morph+Guilty.


... And that's all.

I'm really beginning to dislike your slot. But it's a shame since I liked you yesterday...

[Shirou]

but hm

Enchant doesn't really give scum vibes in their interactions with me yesterday, so I suppose it's a bit hard to believe they are scum.

NQ was really eager to miseliminate me though yesterday before I got a result, I can see scum!NQ here.

p-edit: I think you aren't considering the possible WIFOM plays enough, just because you think it's a "galaxy brain" thing, when it's actually not. It's definitely a huge gamble and smart, but it wouldn't be anywhere near impossible...in fact I kinda had thought about trying to get a doc to confirm me if I rolled up scum here in pregame.

I think trying to just say "yeah these two people remaining in the pool so conveniently must be the scum team" is kinda pushing a potential scum agenda in this game, but at the same time I can see you just being town and jumping to the easiest answer as the only possible one.

[Shirou]

Of the two, Shirou is my pick.

huh

me coming out with an inno and soft inno on both of my yesterday suspects didn't mellow you guys out at all?

I thought there was a small chance people could go "oh maybe shirou's actually town" considering how suboptimal my play right now would be as scum, but hmm, I guess I was just daydreaming kkkkkk

oh my, you all are so cold...

[Shirou]

well

I would be fine with a [Shirou > NQ > Morph] elimination chain. It would kinda bet on fua being town but mechanically wise there's plenty of good reasons to believe they are just that: town.

I guess in most universes that would guarantee us at least one scum. Whether GL/Enchant should be or not added to the pool later I'll leave up to you guys.

I suppose if everyone still scum reads me the same way as yesterday, we should just proceed to opening the pandora box of my town flip after the massclaim.

[Shirou]

Fuck wine, Fua is town.

If Fua is not town, then fuck this game and GG.

So i throwing this future out as impossible.

We have three futures.

All.

I guess that's the easy answer

not that it's bad just because it's easy, it would win most games. Dunno if it wins or loses here, mathematically speaking it likely wins, but...welp, dunno. I'm not a diviner.

[Shirou]

Morph, I think you should begin the massclaim if you're around.

[Shirou]

actually...the massclaim should just be you/GL to be honest, maybe Ceph.

Meg really shouldn't claim, they are going to get confirmed today most likely.

Also, I strongly believe any doctors should stop targeting fua since now we're about to have an actually 100% confirmed town on Meg, and after that maybe a confirmed town on Ceph depending on NQ's flip.

[Shirou]

personally I would leave Meg/Ceph out of the claiming today.

[Shirou]

I think that's all I had to say for this D4 for the most part. See you.

[Shirou]

actually I hadn't thought about mech too much today huh

GL is kinda right, we probably should have Meg/Ceph claiming...but what about doing so tomorrow?

GL is a claimed N5 doctor along with Morph, that guarantees if there's a cop in Meg/Ceph, they'll have night protection.

Even if we confirm at the moment that there is 1 townie in Shirou/NQ, it doesn't mean anything since most likely I would be the elimination anyway and flip town.

Spoiler:

sigh, GL is theoretically likely town from the gamble as I said, but damn it really feels like he's pushing scum agenda...
knowing today who's the cop in Meg/Ceph now that it's likely they may have no protection, would be literally informing scum of the best NK on the likely confirmed townies (as I said I don't believe much in NQ/Ceph, so even if NQ is scum I think Ceph may be just town)

[Shirou]

Okay let me think about this mech stuff, because I hadn't before...

I guess a sign of how little thought I'm putting in this game huh, for me to not think about mech stuff, weird.

[Shirou]

Cephrir - Unclaimed
MegAzumarill - Unclaimed
Enchant - N2 Doctor
implosion - N3 Cop
imaginality - N2 Doctor
numberQ - N1 Cop
redtea - Scum
morph the cat - N5 Doctor
Tejate Raichu - N3 Doctor
fua - N3 Cop
GuiltyLion - N5 Doctor
Shirou - N3 Cop
Amazonian Legends - N2 Doctor

That's 6 claimed doctors and 4 claimed cops.

However, out of that pool, there's only 2 (100% confirmed) doctors, and 1 (100% confirmed) cop.

However if we assume some consensus stuff as:
> Enchant is town
> Fua is town
and also the tidbit of:
>Ceph is town

That would mean, there's 4 confirmed doctors and 2 confirmed cops, which makes the remaining pool of suspects [GuiltyLion, Morph] in the doctors, and [Shirou, NQ] in the cops.

There's three possibilities/scenarios based on that:

A) If both Meg/Ceph are doctors, it means as long as both Enchant and Fua is town, the scum team

MUST

be GuiltyLion/Morph. We would have 8 claimed doctors and 4 claimed cop after all, and the

minimum

amount of a given role is 4, therefore all the cops claims would be guaranteed to be town. We would confirm a 6 doctors : 4 cops setup.

B) If both Meg/Ceph are cops, it means as long as both Enchant and Fua is town, the scum team

MUST

be a random combination of [Shirou/NQ/Morph/GL]. We would have 6 claimed doctors and 6 claimed cops, and unless the scum team is exactly Shirou/NQ, there's at least one scum in Morph/GL.

C) If there's one cop and one doctor in Meg/Ceph, we would have 7 claimed doctors and 5 claimed cops. At least one of the doctors would be confirmed to be lying since there can only be a maximum of 6 of a given role, therefore one of [GuiltyLion/Morph] must be scum, although it could also be both.

Within the initial assumptions, GuiltyLion/Morph can only both be town in a universe where it's exactly Shirou/NQ and both Meg/Ceph are cops (scenario B), but even in that scenario it's completely plausible there's one scum there.


In both scenario A/C, there's a chance of either one or both in Shirou/NQ being town. In scenario B it's

guaranteed

for both me/NQ to be town.

[Shirou]

both me and NQ should know from our own povs if we're town, that scenario B

can't

be possible. Meg/Ceph can't be both cops, therefore for both of us, there's one guaranteed scum in GuiltyLion/Morph as long as the initial assumptions are correct.

[Shirou]

However, there's an interesting tidbit here:

I believe both Morph and GL are skilled players. I find it rather...unlikely that they would do scenario A, where they basically are publicly guilted scum on massclaim. Although at the same time they would either way be in such a rough spot that claiming cop and clearing another player would be kinda suicide, the elimination pool would already be too tight.

However...even more interesting than that, would be scum!Guilty in that scenario beginning the mech talk, since theoretically they should be afraid of people realizing the potential of breaking the setup on massclaim? It would be a rather...risky play for no benefit since he would not even be fishing the potential cop inside Meg/Ceph, given in this scenario they would be both doctors and they should already have known that from the role distribution.

In my pov, and I believe in NQ's as well...this must be scenario B. Therefore, there's very very likely one cop, one doctor in side of Meg/Ceph, and scum knows that, and scum should *want* to know who's the cop there since the elimination pool is getting way too small for yet another cop check.

[Shirou]

I'm confident.

This setup is a 5 doctors 5 cops one, and there's one scum in the doctors and one scum in the cops.

GuiltyLion play today doesn't make any real sense if he was scum here in scenario A. It would be A HUGE, GIGANTIC missplay to begin talking about the mech confirmations right now. I believe GL is better than that. And in scenario A (both Meg/Ceph are doctors), both GL and Morph needs to be scum when you assume the initial assumptions.

We're almost guaranteed on scenario B.

[Shirou]

scum isn't afraid of a massclaim because they have camouflaged themselves on a perfect 1 : 1 distribution between the possible roles, which makes it impossible to confirm with precision anyone being town or scum before flipping them.

It's actually the most viable play anyway. At least one of GL/Morph needs to be town, and the other one as long as our initial assumptions are correct, needs to be scum.

My bet is on GL town and Morph scum.

[Shirou]

If GL/Morph believe in:

> Fua is town
> Enchant is town
> Ceph is *likely* town

You're kinda basically...outed scum to each other in your povs.

Scum knows the role distribution in advance, so they would know that claiming both the same role in a 5:5 setup would literally out them as scum in a massclaim.

Sure, you believe my scum game isn't beyond what's possible in my play here, but now that NSG slot is basically almost confirmed town, and that I've in the above showed that I know my mech, can we please believe that IN NO UNIVERSE EVER I LET BOTH ME AND MY PARTNER BE OUTED GUILTED SCUM in massclaim? I would already have lost the game tomorrow if that was the case anyway.

We're in scenario B, and as long as Fua/Enchant are town, and Ceph likely town:

Guiltylion, Morph MUST be scum for you.
Morph, GuiltyLion MUST be scum for you.

kkkkkkkkkk

Okay that was very funny. Didn't know there was a play here other than miseliminating me.

[Shirou]

Potentially miseliminating either me or NQ right now is actually...suboptimal now to be honest...and it actually saddens me that I must yet again defend myself for the day due to trying to give town the best chances to win...I know this is LAMIST but it's a true le sigh moment for me.

Why it's suboptimal? Because if you correctly nail the scum in NQ/Shirou, the other one eventually becomes conftown. You're potentially wasting an entire elimination for nothing if you get who is the likely scum in us wrong.

And well...*smirk*. If we're ever both town, it means Ceph/Meg is automatically town, and therefore, FUA MUST BE SCUM if the setup is 5:5.

HAHAHAHA

Oh my, there was no need for paranoia!

As long as the cop in Meg/Ceph checks one of me/NQ, we would eventually know with *certainty* if fua is scum or not I suppose.

[Shirou]

oh my...this game has becoming surely interesting all of a sudden

even if I'm dying today, I'll surely try to give you guys the best mech plan possible, so if I ever come to E-1 while away, please don't hammer me. Although it's kinda suboptimal, even if we were to miseliminate me there's probably stuff we could do now that I thought about it.

Mhm, I was correctly afraid for a reason of being scum in this setup. The mech solves really are a bit too strong. Even in the hypothetical scenario where fua is scum, they may end up being eliminated solely due to mechanics, which honestly...makes this setup unbalanced in my view.

[Shirou]

even if I'm dying today, I'll surely try to give you guys the best mech plan possible, so if I ever come to E-1 while away, please don't hammer me.

I mean don't hammer me before my last words or something please.

[Shirou]

And furthermore, what earthly reason do I have to not stay on the lim Shirou train? There was no inno. He still looks like scum, the actions of previous days are not erased. His posts today have not convinced me that he's not, either.

heh

kkkkk

Tejate can you like, please read my posts?

If my slot is scum I'm basically already on auto as long as we do what I said. I've already lost this game if scum from any possible angle, no matter if my potential partner would be NQ or not.

As long as we do the plan I said, the cops should auto resolve themselves. Whoever is scum in Shirou/NQ/Fua will be shown, no matter if there's only one or two.

I've a game where when I was confirmed to have mechanically lost, I simply gave up and admitted to being scum. I hate wasting time, and I'm not giving up here. If I'm scum and your pools are currently right this game is already over no matter what, if you're town, can't you try to show me a bit of good-faith and read my mech talk to understand why it's good to do a course of actions that also guarantees you get scum even if you're wrong on me/NQ?

[Shirou]

Let me make sure I have this right, I don't think it's quite clicking for me but Shirou/nQ both agreeing on it makes me feel there's something I am not grokking from the claimed cop PoV

redtea never claimed, so there are 12 possible claims

nQ and Shirou you are asserting that scum will always claim it to wind up 6:6, because otherwise if the claim distribution is 5:7 then they can be auto'd? I think that's the step I'm missing, why are we certain we can't wind up with a 5:7 claim breakdown here? isn't that the world where morph is outed (to me), assuming Enchant is scum?

I think I'm missing how from your PoV, 4 ~real~ cops and 6 ~real~ docs would mean an impossibility - why can't two of the (non-you) cops be lying?

I've the proper reply to this and redtea not having claimed doesn't matter GL. But I need to do something right now but I'll be back in a few minutes.

Just saying so you don't think I'm running away from replying this right now. Convincing people of what I'm saying is important here.

[Shirou]

Let me make sure I have this right, I don't think it's quite clicking for me but Shirou/nQ both agreeing on it makes me feel there's something I am not grokking from the claimed cop PoV

redtea never claimed, so there are 12 possible claims

nQ and Shirou you are asserting that scum will always claim it to wind up 6:6, because otherwise if the claim distribution is 5:7 then they can be auto'd? I think that's the step I'm missing, why are we certain we can't wind up with a 5:7 claim breakdown here? isn't that the world where morph is outed (to me), assuming Enchant is scum?

I think I'm missing how from your PoV, 4 ~real~ cops and 6 ~real~ docs would mean an impossibility - why can't two of the (non-you) cops be lying?

Okay from the start:

Redtea never claimed, you're right about that, usually scum aims for a 7:6 claim distribution (because there's a minimum/maximum of 4 ~ 6 roles, therefore if they did a 8:5, everyone would know that they simply should purely eliminate either in the doctors or in cops, whoever had 8 claims on it). However since redtea was already dead they likely aimed for 6:6, which doesn't tell us any obvious information about where scum is from a first look.

The reason that in the given scenario with the assumptions there can't be two cops lying, is that those are the cop claims in that scenario:

Shirou
NQ
Fua
Implo
Meg
Ceph

To me Meg is town, implo is already flipped, so there is:

NQ
Fua
Ceph

Within the initial assumptions, only NQ can be scum there, even if Ceph were to be scum, it would be shown when we tried to solve the remaining doctors with eliminations/cop shot. It would be kinda be auto as long as Fua is town, and...isn't that what we believe anyway if we're eliminating inside our current pool? The unique thing doing this stuff would do is to show us clearly if we're wrong or not on Fua for example, it would still be auto for most teams in that pool however...

I think I misspoke something in my excitement now that I cooled off a bit. I'm thinking about it right now.

[Shirou]

I said that this must be scenario B but I may have confused what scenario B was. Huh...wait a bit actually.

[Shirou]

Shirou, it feels like you had something on your phone that you don't want your SO seeing so you keep spamming the convo to get stuff out of being visible on screen.

So much noise.

For the love of Arceus, if you're town, spoiler tag that shit and draft it together in one well laid out post instead of word vomiting it over five hundred posts. If you're scum, uh, keep doing what you're doing I guess that's cool?

?

I literally only did 5 or so posts explaining it and the rest is all either commentary about it or talking to other people about it though?

but uh, okay, I'll try to think more before speaking again I suppose

[Shirou]

okay before shutting up and thinking more to do a more concise final post as requested, I'll just say this:

on hindsight it can either be scenario B or C as I see it right now, I actually misspoke and confused scenario B and C, I initially thought there Meg/Ceph would be either doc/cop or cop/doc due to me wrongly assuming that if both were cop, it would instantly mean I had to be scum with NQ, which isn't true.

It's possible for this to be cop/cop and what made me realize was GL talking about it. What I replied to him is still right to me, but I wondered why he was assuming there would be 6 claimed cops, and for some reason I ended up thinking they couldn't be both cops even if in my initial post I said it right: that even if both were cops, the pool would be wider than Shirou/NQ.

Hmm. Thanks for helping me realize this GL, let me think about this more.

Sorry I guess. I'll revise it.

[Shirou]

and uh

I don't think we should ever start off voting Fua NQ.

I'm a bit paranoid but I don't think it's good mech play or reasonable to start voting fua here ever.

I'm only talking about scum!fua mostly in hypothetical, because eventually depending on the role distribution, it may become confirmed that fua is scum based on our combined alignments, but uh, that's a hypothetical for later.

[Shirou]

miseliminating fua right now would be how we lose the game basically. I feel we're close to a semi-auto depending on Meg/Ceph roles and their nights, but I need to think more so for now I'll shut up for a bit.

[Shirou]

There's no reason to not claim.

Mafia can as well deduce remaining two claims.

What?

Of course there's a reason for Meg/Ceph to not claim today.

They can be either cop/cop or doctor/cop (unlikely to ever be doctor/doctor), scum doesn't know who's the cop and who's the doctor at least in the second scenario.

and not sure if this is what you're talking about, but even if the are on the scenario of cop/cop, they shouldn't ever claim nights.

claiming today isn't a good idea when if it's doc/cop, it outs to scum who's the one they should NK. In N5 we've two claimed doctors, they either protect them or get outed as scum. It's better to leave Meg/Ceph claiming for tomorrow.

Of that I'm almost 100% sure at least.

[Shirou]

miseliminating fua right now would be how we lose the game basically. I feel we're close to a semi-auto depending on Meg/Ceph roles and their nights, but I need to think more so for now I'll shut up for a bit.

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... robability

also...what's up with this?

How it's bad to appeal to people do a course of actions assuming the most probable scenario(s)???

You may as well stop believing in math entirely if you think that's bad...?

[Shirou]

THERE'S 0,01 POSSIBILITY MOD MADE MISTAKE AND PLACED CULT LEADER INSTEAD OF MAFIA.

Paranoia issues.

I don't think you understand what we've been discussing about and I recommend a re:read.

Don't confuse my stance with NQ's.

I think fua is still possible scum but wouldn't vote them unless they are confirmed, because from what I'm seeing, whether fua is truly town or not will eventually be apparent.

What I'm trying to discuss is a way to put this game as close to auto solve as possible, and one of the main considerations, is that fua IS town for that.

[Shirou]

Mhm. Okay I've made things simpler:

We no longer need to assume either Enchant being town or Ceph being town. We really just assume Fua is town here and therefore if this fails at any point at the last days, fua is outed scum. I don't really think they are scum atm. I'm starting to see other more plausible teams.

I'm gonna double check a bit more before posting just to not need to redact yet again. The logic is still more or less the same of the post before, but I'm not necessarily assuming anything other than fua is town.

With this plan, as long as fua is town, I suppose we may be in auto-win as town depending on role distribution on Meg/Ceph.

[Shirou]

Therefore if fua is town, clap clap clap I guess? Decent chances we've just won I would say.

[Shirou]

If both Meg/Ceph are cop *and* fua is scum, it would be game over for us. But uh, we wouldn't eliminate fua either way with how things were going.

[Shirou]

Shirou's Mech Wall

okay let's go step by step and if someone has any doubts they quote the specific point, it's gonna be easy discuss it like that and make everyone understand it I suppose. Let's start with the basic of the basic. I'm gonna call each "point" a "bullet" for dangaronpa flavor and giggles.

Bullet 1: Eliminations remaining.

Spoiler:

We've 9 players alive, and 2 scum remain. 7:2 parity.

Even if we miseliminate every day/scum night kills successfully everyday:

> Day 4: 9 alive, 2 scum remains. 7:2, two townies die.
> Day 5: 7 alive, 2 scum remains. 5:2, two townies die again.
> Day 6: 5 alive, 2 scum remains. 3:2, last day to get scum. However if we get one scum in the third elimination:
> Day 7: 3 alive, 1 scum remains. Last day again.

It's obvious but just to get it out there if someone didn't calculate it yet, we've 3 eliminations remaining, and if in those three first eliminations we get one scum right, we get a fourth elimination.

Bullet 2: Assumptions for this plan to work.

Spoiler:

1) Fua is town.
2) One of Meg/Ceph are town.

One of Meg/Ceph must be town because there's two scum remainings, and no matter if you think that the team may be Meg/Me, Ceph/NQ, or Shirou/NQ, at least one of [Meg/Ceph] is ALWAYS town here, if not both.

Enchant doesn't need to be assumed to be town, you're free to do so though if you want since he's left for last in a way that if he's town, he will always remain alive as long as fua is town (except if he's NK'd I guess).

Bullet 3: Setup possibilities.

Spoiler:

We've 6 doctors claimed, and 4 cops claimed. Meg/Ceph are still unclaimed. There's the following scenarios here:

A) If they are

both doctors

. We would be on 8 doctors claimed, and 4 cops claimed. There's a minimum of 4 of a given role in any roll of this setup, so all cop claims would be confirmed town and we would eliminate the unconfirmed doctors [GuiltyLion, Morph, Enchant] for a guaranteed town win.

B) They are

both cops

, We would be on 6 doctors claimed, and 6 cops claimed. Impossible to tell initially if scum is both in the doctors or cop, or if there's one scum on each claimed role, however it also means we have 2 extra cop shots, which together with the N5 doctors claims, guarantees we get at least one more cop result. We will use that to win in this scenario, explanations in another bullet.

C) They are cop/doc or doc/cop. We would be on 7 doctors claimed, and 5 cops claimed. Guaranteed that at least one doctor is lying, and there's only 3 unconfirmed doctors, so guaranteed for us to get at least one other scum with the number of eliminations we've. We can also still solve the cop pool potential scum (although it's possible to be no scum in the cops in this scenario) with the explanations of another bullet point.

Bullet 4: What is my recommended play for today and tomorrow.

Spoiler:

Today, we eliminate one in the pool of Morph/GL. Tomorrow we eliminate one in the pool of Shirou/NQ most likely.

Why and how?

In both previously mentioned scenario A and C, it's either confirmed both me and NQ are town, or that there's at least one townie on us. Even in scenario B, there's no guarantee whatsoever that there's scum in the cop pool. However, in all scenarios except scenario B (Meg/Ceph as cop/cop), there's a

guarantee

of scum in the remaining doctor pool.

Therefore, since scenario B is the unique one where there's no guaranteed scum in [Morph, GuiltyLion] (there's also Enchant in the pool, but removed due to popular demand I guess?), we would direct today the potential cops in Meg/Ceph to inversely check on who checked them. Basically:

If Ceph is a cop, he check me tonight.
If Meg is a cop, they check NQ tonight.

They are most likely the nightkills as well, therefore:

If Ceph is a doctor, he protects Meg tonight.
If Meg is a doctor, they protect Ceph tonight.

If we're in scenario B where there's no guarantee of scum in doctors, we would still get a guaranteed cop check. If we're in scenario C and only one of them is a cop, even if they were a N5 cop, it's likely that we get the cop check anyway like this, since we already have claimed N5 doctors, and there's a good chance that the doctor in Ceph/Meg would be N4 given that implo was nightkilled on N3 (he was the obvious nightkill), and we know there was no other N1 doctors. Even if the doctor in Ceph/Meg is N5 as well, scum would still need to gamble a 50/50 on discovering who is the cop in that scenario. We would have AT LEAST 50% chance of getting the cop check either way.

As long as there's only one N5 doctor alive tomorrow, we can have Meg/Ceph claim tomorrow if no results tonight, and leash the remaining claimed N5 doctor to whoever of them claims N5 cop (if any). If that target is nightkilled, the claimed N5 doctor would also be outed scum.

If they get an inno on one of Shirou/NQ, we eliminate the remaining one to completely confirm the cops pool tomorrow. If they get a guilty, you know the gist.

Bullet 5: Differences on what to do between scenario A, B and C.

Spoiler:

No matter if we're in scenario A, B or C, what we do today/tonight is basically the same. The difference is that:

A) If tomorrow Meg/Ceph both claim/flip doctor (unlikely), we continue eliminating in the doctors pool since all cop claims would be mechanically confirmed town (there would only be 4 cop claims in that scenario, remember, the minimum). This would give us the easiest auto-win.

B) If tomorrow Meg/Ceph both claim/flip cop, if there's a result from N4, we either eliminate the guilty on Shirou/NQ, or eliminate the one that didn't get the inno to confirm the cop pool. If there's no result from N4, it means there'll be at least one N5 cop alive among them, and we leash the remaining N5 doctor to them. We still eliminate one on Shirou/NQ in D5 and investigate the remaining one. If the cop dies, the doctor is confirmed scum. A "cop result" either way.

C) If tomorrow Meg/Ceph claim/flip either doctor/cop or cop/doctor, likewise, if there's a result from N4, we eliminate the guilty on Shirou/NQ or eliminate the one that didn't get the inno to confirm the cop pool. If there's no result from N4, it either means the cop died or there's a remaining N5 cop alive among them again, and we also leash the remaining N5 doctor to them. They investigate either Enchant or the remaining N5 doctor. We still eliminate on one of Shirou/NQ on D5. If the eliminated cop on D5 flips scum, in this scenario all the other cops are confirmed town and you just destroy the remaining doctor pool. If the eliminated cop on D5 flips town, we follow the result from the N5 cop and eliminate the remaining unconfirmed doctor. If said unconfirmed doctor flips town, the remaining one alive of Shirou/NQ would be scum.

Therefore we're guaranteed to get one scum right doing this chain no matter what universe we're in as long as fua is town. However, now remains to explain why it gets to an auto after one more scum elimination in those scenarios (except scenario A, that's a straight up obvious mech town-win in D5).

Bullet 6: How the scenarios/this chain develops to an auto win or semi auto-win

Spoiler:

Okay, so we know that in scenario A the reason it's an auto win is obvious in D5 (it leaves only 2 unconfirmed players alive and we would still have 2 eliminations left).

Let's explain why it's also a town win in scenario B and C as long as fua is town, and I'll assume we get the worst luck possible in those scenarios. If things run better than expected, we may even be able to confirm if fua is truly town or not just to be sure!

Scenario B:

So we're in D5, one of Meg/Ceph died, but the remaining one claims cop anyway (since both are cops in this scenario). Let's assume the worst luck possible: we eliminated Morph, they flipped town, and the remaining cop of Meg/Ceph is a N5 one, so we've no result.

We leash GuiltyLion in this scenario to protecting the remaining cop of Meg/Ceph, and we eliminate on Shirou/NQ inversely based on who is alive. If Meg is alive, you eliminate me and leash Meg to investigate NQ. If Ceph is alive, you eliminate NQ and leash Ceph on me.

If the cop dies, GuiltyLion is confirmed scum, and we've 1 elimination left for [Shirou or NQ, Enchant]. It's obvious that the elimination would be whoever of Shirou/NQ remains, so unhappily yes, we would lose in that scenario to scum!Enchant, but this is considering the WORST LUCK possible. If we don't get the worst luck, in most cases we also can ensure a win even against a potential scum!Enchant. For example, if the first eliminated N5 doctor is scum, or if our surviving cop in Meg/Ceph is N4. In most cases here, even a scum!Enchant loses.

If the cop survives, we get the cop check in the remaining one of Shirou/NQ, and the game gets in auto since every slot except [Enchant/Surviving N5 Doctor] would be confirmed, and we would still have exactly 2 eliminations to confirm everyone. Scum cannot possibly win here as long as again, fua is town.

Scenario C

: So we're in D5. One of Meg/Ceph is doctor, and the other one cop. This can end up playing in three possibilities:

1) The doctor gets NK'd and the cop is left alive (good for us! they either have a result already or we leash the N5 doctor to them in N5, we're guaranteed either an inno or guilty again)
2) The cop gets NK'd, and the doctor is alive (the worst luck possible, but there's still salvation as I'll show)
3) The doctor saves the cop and there's no nightkill in Ceph/Meg. (best possible course of action for us, we leash the N5 doctor to the remaining cop if they already don't have a result, and again guaranteed either an inno or guilty)

Okay, let's assume WORST LUCK again, scum lucks out in the 50/50, targets the cop, and also gets lucky that the doctor in Meg/Ceph is N5 or something. We end up with the cop died and the doctor alive on Meg/Ceph. Let's see what we can do:

We would be in a 7 doctors claimed, 5 cops claimed scenario here, so therefore there's a

guaranteed

scum in the doctors, and one of Shirou/NQ is guaranteed town. If we still had the cop check, we would check inversely like the scenarios before on Shirou/NQ, but since here scum lucked out, we don't have an extra cop check to guarantee we get the one in Shirou/NQ right. Assuming worst luck again, let's also assume in D4 we also eliminated Morph and they flipped town. We've 2 eliminations left (and get as explained before, one extra when we get scum).

One of [Enchant/GuiltyLion] is guaranteed scum.

One of [Shirou/NQ] is guaranteed town.

We eliminate in the doctors until there's a scum flip, and then you choose in Shirou/NQ. As long as Enchant is town, GL (or Morph if we did GL on D4), NEEDS to flip scum here first, so don't worry scum!me isn't manipulating here and still would have no chance of winning as long as Enchant isn't my partner, since the chain would be [ GL or Morph > Shirou > NQ].

Again...on worst luck scenarios we kinda lose to scum!Enchant, but once again as long as it's not the worst luck hypothetical, we can also check Enchant here.

For example if our cop in Meg/Ceph survives here, if they are N4 they claim their result and then we either eliminate the guilted one in Shirou/NQ, or the unconfirmed one in case of an inno result. If we get a guilty, it confirms every other cop as town since there would only be 4 remaining cop claims, and we would still have 3 eliminations left to kill all of the uncofirmed [GL or Morph, Enchant]. In fact, we would have a SURPLUS of one elimination.

If we get an inno, we can eliminate the remaining unconfirmed one in Shirou/NQ. Even if it flips town, it would still confirm all the cops since the scum team can't be Shirou/Ceph or Meg/NumberQ. We would still have 2 eliminations left to kill [GL or Morph, Enchant], leaving 0 unconfirmed slots in the game. Scum again cannot possibly win as long as fua is town.

Bullet 7: What's the difference between doing this and just doing whatever?

Spoiler:

We've 3 eliminations, and again, get one extra if we get one scum. Therefore as long as the entire scum team is in [Shirou, NQ, GL, Morph]. Yeah, we can do any chain of eliminations inside that and it's a town win already.

However you lose to Shirou/Meg, NQ/Ceph, and a potential scum!Enchant. If you try to check any of Meg/Ceph/Enchant without this plan, you also can lose to one of [Shirou, NQ, GL, Morph].

What I'm proposing gives exact 0 chances for any scum in [Shirou, NQ, GL, Morph] to win, but also gives 0 chances for scum!Meg or scum!Ceph to win from a 3rd person pov's. It also gives us very likely chance to catch scum!Enchant if we're ever wrong there.

I didn't explain it as well since no one believes in it and it's not guaranteed to happen, but also if we get a bit ~lucky~ on what Meg/Ceph are and what happens at night, we can also confirm fua's alignment as well.

There's kinda...no actual cons to this. No real risk. Only benefits.

The best argument you could do for this to be a ~scum plan~ for me, would be that I may be scum trying to get lucky in a 1v1 with Enchant in a single scenario of the above, but...hm, come on, I'm not winning a 1v1 against Enchant here ever, I would lose anyway, and I would basically need dumb luck for that scenario to even happen...

[Shirou]

uh...that tired me out

but hm, tl;dr is even if we do random ass elimination chains on [Shirou, NQ, Morph, GL], I guess we can win as long as Meg/Ceph/Enchant are all town, but you can't EVER deviate of [Shirou, NQ, Morph, GL] later to try to check one of Meg/Ceph/Enchant, if for example NQ flips scum or from a third person pov, I flip scum. We also always lose against a potential scum!Enchant here while in most scenarios we win against even a scum!Enchant with my plan/chains.

If we get ~lucky~, we also even double check fua's alignment.

It's kinda the optimal stuff to do but /shrug

sometimes people just like to do things the easier way and I'm gonna try to not complain too much if it's the case here even though my fingers hurt after typing so much...

[Shirou]

I...don't think I want to do GL because I believe he's town for game reasons now, so I think the likely scum in [GL, Morph, Enchant] is just Morph.

VOTE: Morph

/shrug

if this is right, I wasn't that far off in D1 huh...

[Shirou]

Sorry if there's any typos in the wall, I got exhausted and couldn't double check for typos. You can quote any potential typos and I can correct if it's a typo or not I guess.

[Shirou]

to be honest I'm so lazy in this game that even though I figured out the ~optimal~ way to go about this game, I kinda feel like maybe we should just do a screw-maths moment and just turbo eliminate [Shirou, Morph, GL, NQ], and in my humble opinion it should be [Morph > Shirou or NQ > GL], but I guess I can accept being first due to...POPULAR DEMAND HAHAHAHAHA

[Shirou]

okay I've a bad sense of humor I know

[Shirou]

If either one of Morph/GL is scum, none of Meg or Ceph can be scum as well, so the unique thing we would be missing in that scenario is our assurance against Enchant, and maybe against fua.

That's all I suppose...there's nothing left of meta to discuss I think...

If we don't do the ~plan~, I believe cops in Meg/Ceph should check for Enchant. It's kinda a half-assed way of checking for Enchant but hey...it can kinda just work you know...

there's no point in cop checking any of [Morph, GL, Shirou, NQ] if we don't do the plan I believe. We've enough eliminations so that no scum there can ever win.

[Shirou]

nothing left of meta to discuss I think...

nothing left of mech to discuss*

[Shirou]

Hm..I really wrote all that for nothing huh

Not even proper discussion about it

[Shirou]

If no one is gonna listen to the mech plan and will rather just lol vote randomly. Can I actually ask you all to speedwagon me and get me out of here already?

If you aren't going to follow any mech plan and will rather just do stuff randomly, it's obvious my slot won't be around until endgame and neither I would want to live 3 or 4 days hearing the same repeated lines.

If Meg/Ceph are cop/cop I expect a shitshow in results, and especially if Ceph is scum with NQ, but oh well, I'm washing my hands at this point if that's how much interest there is in actually discussing mech.

Only GL seemed to be interested on it as far as I remember. Maybe fua but not sure.

[Shirou]

If we aren't doing the mech plan that has a chance of confirming either my slot or NQ, I believe my slot needs to just get flipped so you can rethink your solves. Maybe my elimination could have been avoided today if I tried to push Morph harder or something, but I don't see the point of delaying the inevitable.

The unique reason I'm not gonna self-vote is that I believe it's against the "playing to wincon" rule, even though flipping my slot at this point isn't against my wincon at all. Also you should scum read this for "fake bravado" or something so even more reason to just vote me yes.

However,

if you don't want to vote me neither discuss implementing the mech plan, can we simply speed eliminate Morph? Thank you.

At least let's get a wagon going, this game is far too slow.

[Shirou]

From what I see, most of you aren't interested in doing a mech plan to be assured against a NQ/Ceph team or Shirou/Meg.

Okay.

You aren't interested in being a bit wary of fua?

Okay.

You aren't interested in being wary of Enchant.

Okay.

You've three eliminations to get one scum, and four eliminations to get the remaining scum team.

The pool of consensus suspect has exactly 4 players; [Shirou, Morph, NQ, Guiltylion].

What the hell are you hesitating for? Do something.

[Shirou]

Or rather, do the obvious.

If you aren't interested in trying to give yourself the best chances against a hypothetical scum!Ceph, scum!Meg and scum!Enchant by doing the mech plan, neither are interested in double checking fua, there's literally nothing left to do in this game other than speed eliminate [Shirou, Morph, NQ, Guiltylion].

[Shirou]

I didn't want to bring it up before anyone noticing to not be rambling self-defense yet again, but since GL talked about it, I also want to mention that Amazon was one of the few slots that were treating me a bit positively after my early cop claim thing in D2.

Killing them would be kinda suicide/a bad move, when I'm guaranteed to not be scum with Ceph if I'm ever scum here, and Ceph would be always a better NK due to being a cop checked player + hadn't claimed yet so could be a cop as well. I would have nightkilled one of the few slots that was likely to not want to vote me immediately. Amazon was town read but they weren't 100% confirmed. It still could have been a scum!Amazon doing a no nightkill gambit, it would have been much easier to do than the supposedly scum!fua gambit.

I think the fact Amazon died N2 rather than Ceph may be an important detail in this game. There's also another possible theory about this but I don't want to make more enemies than I already have for today...

[Shirou]

Even fua had brought up being a bit paranoid of a gambit from Amazon before they died I think. It was a bit of a weird kill.

[Shirou]

Hm....
So. What i think. (Yes i did read this wall and i stoled it shamelessly to explain with simple words).


We killing numberQ today. If this is mafia, then okay, revaluate... If Town, then we locktown Ceph and read next step.
If numberQ town, we killing Shirou next. If this is mafia, then okay, revaluate... If Town, then we locktown Meg and read next step.
If Shirou Town... Then game won, because team is exactly Guilty+Morph and we murderize them. GG ez.

We have enough firepower to bloodbath our way to victory. Yay!
As long as i won't end up on choping block (Well it's hard) and Fua is town (I absolutely sure), we are in chocolate.

...

no?

We need to necessarily start by killing one of the doctor claims today for the plan, who between NQ/Shirou is killed tomorrow depends on who is the cop or surviving one between Meg/Ceph.

You misunderstood the wall I believe. I talk about eliminating either me or NQ on

Day 5

.

I don't want to eliminate GL at all though...

[Shirou]

If we've a bit of luck we don't need to check fua at all with the plan, this is kind of what I was talking about

As long as we don't get the worst luck possible, we'll end up realizing by mech that fua is scum, *especially* if this is a cop/doc game and therefore a 5:5 setup. I'll admit that it's gonna be a bit harder to check fua if Meg/Ceph are cop/cop, but I don't think directly cop checking fua is a very good idea...

At the very least, in most scenarios, we at least would get a 1v1 between fua and Enchant with my plan if it's scum!fua/town!Enchant. It would be guaranteed to be at least funny and eye-opening.

But eh, honestly it's mostly paranoia for me, I don't think there's good chances of fua being scum here at all atm, it's just...I'm always rightfully paranoid in my opinion? If it's between blindly trusting fua/Enchant, and doing something that can gives us a bit leverage in the worst case scenario, I believe the latter is better if there's no inherent risk to it.

[Shirou]

If we don't do ~the plan~, I believe the cop(s) in Meg/Ceph should target Enchant or GL. That way in the last day if it comes to that, fua would be technically confirmed scum for either GL or Enchant.

I believe checking GL may be the best even if I think he's town, because Enchant and fua are both very town read and town reach each other. It would be an interesting fight if it ever comes to that kkkk

I don't think in GL vs fua, it's likely that a hypothetical scum!fua loses in most case scenarios.

[Shirou]

but again eh, I think we're focusing a bit too much on scum!fua right now and I don't think it's worth directing cops there or thinking about voting them.

@Ceph/Meg how interested in listening to my mech plan are you right now?

and also spicy question, if I was the elimination today and flipped town, would you let me direct your hypothetical cop targets tonight?

depending on the answers, it may make sense to eliminate me first here.

[Shirou]

Enchant would be like the worst possible target IMO, he's just town

cops in this game need to stop checking my damn townreads and either check me or check my scumreads

so check you I guess. I thought maybe you would get mad at me for suggesting ~again~ a cop check on you.

But like, if you've paranoia about scum!fua, checking you would guarantee that at the very least this would get to a Enchant vs Fua fight, where you or anyone else could rethink their thoughts, since it's two slots that people are betting the game on right now, and we would be shown to be wrong on one of them.

PS: That is, if we don't do the plan, if we do the plan the cop checks would be on me/NQ inversely based on who checked the cop. So Ceph on me and Meg on NQ I guess.

[Shirou]

@Ceph/Meg how interested in listening to my mech plan are you right now?

and also spicy question, if I was the elimination today and flipped town, would you let me direct your hypothetical cop targets tonight?

depending on the answers, it may make sense to eliminate me first here.

this is important so please reply.

[Shirou]

why would I be mad at a suggestion to check me, I've been asking for that since D2. I think it would be really useful to take me out of the suspect pool and make people more likely to actually listen to me and how I'm seeing the game

eh, yes but I spent most of this game saying to cop check you or something. I'm actually trying to not get in a fight with you right now/on your bad side. You're more or less starting to see the game like I'm, and I don't want to disrupt this chain of events depending on how Meg/Ceph replies to me.

[Shirou]

it's bonkers that Shirou posted an enormous, thoroughly detailed and objectively neutral mech plan, and half the players just straight up ignore it

kkkk, that's the kind of creepy part!

That's like, exactly what any of hypothetical scum!Ceph, scum!Enchant, scum!Fua wouldn't want (I guess scum!Meg as well but you know, confirmed town to me and it doesn't make a lot of sense in the first place I would suggest something like that if I was scum with Meg).

But uh, to be honest atm I just think it's Morph + someone else and fua is town. Is it creepy though? kinda yeah.

[Shirou]

I asked that early as well because I just noticed that there's an universe here that it's completely and utterly not anti-wincon for me to self-vote, and if I get banned after this, I would fight the site mods here.

Even without rigorously following the mech plan, there's some chances of forcing a Enchant vs Fua 1v1 in last day here if one is scum, which would be eye-opening and the best we could likely hope for without straying away too heavily of what's "mathematically likely" (since, it's mathematically likely that fua is just town for example and therefore checking them tonight is kinda ~bad play~).

However that depends on whether the potential cops, Meg/Ceph, are willing to be directed through a plan.

p-edit: I feel a fuzzy warm feeling from GL improving his image of my slot

[Shirou]

fua no thoughts on the Superior Shirou plan?

Uh... I don't think it said anything that wasn't already implied? I already know that Meg/Tejate/Enchant/Ceph should never be elimmed today, at LEAST three of them are town, and I know I'm town (and that Tejate is town),

so we should elim in one of the remaining four.

Hmm..no, it explains that we should eliminate strictly in the doctors claim today rather than in the "remaining four" and how it leads in most cases to hypothetical scum!Meg/scum!Enchant/scum!Ceph not winning.

We would strictly eliminate on the cops pool tomorrow, not today. (As in, whoever survives today of the doctors, is guaranteed to not be eliminated tomorrow as well).

For the plan to work like it's written, it necessarily needs to have a chain of [one doctor eliminated D4 --> one cop eliminated D5].

I could try to make a bit less ideal workarounds depending on how Ceph/Meg answer though I guess...

[Shirou]

actually for now

UNVOTE:

I'm not sure if there's a very good point in doing Morph today necessarily if Ceph/Meg are as uninterested to listening to me as they seem to be right now. This could end up leading to more damage than good even if Morph is scum.

Also, if Morph is scum, to those still heavily suspecting me and not being able to see many universes where I could be town, what would be your opinion of me in that hypothetical scenario? Would you think I'm the most likely partner of scum!Morph?

[Shirou]

If I give up on any possibilities of

mechanically

confirming fua alignment in the mech plan, maybe I can come up with something that begins with my death and can still force a Enchant vs Fua in the final day (all the while following the consensus that fua is town, and enchant is town), which is the best chances of us winning against either scum!Fua or scum!Enchant right now I think in a worst case scenario.

[Shirou]

I know the above is LAMIST but /shrug

right now it eerily feels like some really suboptimal stuff could take place in the following days with how much interest of thinking this through there is from most players.

If I die today and everyone agrees to follow what I say in mech, it's not that bad compared to leaving stuff up in the air like right now.

[Shirou]

by the way, trivia fact:

If we hadn't no eliminated yesterday, but rather done Morph

We had a very good chance of getting an extra elimination today if one of Meg/Ceph is doc, which would guarantee we win even against scum!fua in most scenarios ever. Like, in that scenario scum needs to luck out to win this game no matter who they are.

[Shirou]

Oh, those are better replies than I was expecting.

[Shirou]

@Ceph/Meg how interested in listening to my mech plan are you right now?

and also spicy question, if I was the elimination today and flipped town, would you let me direct your hypothetical cop targets tonight?

i recognize that i should probably read it

maybe

and not just maybe! kkkk

Please look at least if you agree about the night actions. Even if you don't understand the whole thing, as long as you agree on the night actions, it's still okay and we can resume the Morph vs Me debate.

[Shirou]

If you are not flipped ceph should check you and I'll check someone else assuming we are cops.

hmm, wait, if I'm not flipped neither NQ is, you aren't going to check NQ?

Meg, to be clear here, I don't see a world where scum doesn't try to nightkill one of you, therefore unless we luck out and one of you is a doctor that manages to protect the other, even if each of you checks a cop, we'll likely only have one checked cop tomorrow. If you check someone else other than NQ, we risk having no cops checked tonight at all if Ceph is nightkilled, which would be kinda suboptimal since by confirming the cops, we also publicly confirm your/Ceph alignments to other people.

[Shirou]

Even if scum NKs your claimed cop target in this case (NQ), it doesn't matter. We simply have a surplus of one elimination in that world compared to the pool we've now, which is effectively what a cop check would do anyway, and there's exactly 0 chance scum nightkills either me or NQ normally (aka without leashing cops on us).

[Shirou]

:thonking:

But well, actually,

If I'm not speaking from a complete neutral PoV by knowing my alignment. Meg your plan isn't bad at all if Ceph agrees at all.

I was speaking completely neutral before so I didn't push or mention for it, but right now weirdly enough, an inno is much more valuable than a guilty in the pool of [GL, Morph, Shirou, NQ].

It's a pool of slots that people already seem convinced either way, so a guilty merely gives you an order of priority rather than giving you a surplus of one elimination.

[Shirou]

Therefore knowing I'm town, if Ceph agreed to cop me but you for example Meg, cop checked the one in [GL, Morph] that is least likely to be scum (which in my opinion is by far GL). It may not be a bad idea.

Of course however, from a complete neutral PoV, this course of actions could give an advantage to a Shirou/Meg scum team, but since both me and you know this isn't possible, we could do it if that's what you are already thinking anyway.

[Shirou]

This can also backfire of course if it's a 6 cops : 4 doctors setup, and GL/Morph is the scum team. In that scenario confirming NQ is town is the best scenario.

However again, if I'm not being completely neutral, I think GL is town therefore an inno on one of us would help much more than a hypothetical guilty on Morph or NQ.

[Shirou]

Eliminating Morph, Ceph checking me, Meg checking GL (aka the least likely to be scum in [Morph, GL] from most people views?), is indeed a good idea.

However, you need to assume a not complete neutral stance there that I'm not likely scum/GL isn't likely scum for example.

[Shirou]

I think having me heal meg makes perfect sense. I'm less sure that letting shirou out of the like so I can check him makes sense; in particular I am not sure why he merits this treatment over GL or morph

because if you/meg are cop/doc or doc/cop, we would be in 7:5 on claims and therefore any guilty on NQ/me would confirm all other cops.

I had kinda forgot this overnight until you mentioned it, I was kinda secretly wondering why I had insisted on me/NQ being checked, but it was derp, forget what I said to Meg before, that's why my past-me had leashed the docs on the cops huh. That's why it's better to check on us than GL/Morph from an objective neutral pov.

If we get to a 7:5 scenario, a guilty in one of the cops means all others are confirmed town. If you're cop/cop and we'll be in 6:6 on claims...it actually doesn't matter that much to be honest I think. Unless I forgot again something about this specific scenario.

If you're cop/cop and therefore we will be in 6:6 on claims tomorrow , killing me today/right now isn't very relevant in the grand scheme of things tbh. The reason we do doctors today is kinda more strictly because you/Meg can be cop/doc or doc/cop and therefore if NQ for example is scum, (or in your pov, I'm scum), all other cops get to be confirmed town, therefore risking miseliminating in me/NQ when one can potentially clear the other in this scenario, would be suboptimal. We may end up wasting one elimination.

[Shirou]

Therefore knowing I'm town, if Ceph agreed to cop me but you for example Meg, cop checked the one in [GL, Morph] that is least likely to be scum (which in my opinion is by far GL). It may not be a bad idea.

Of course however, from a complete neutral PoV, this course of actions could give an advantage to a Shirou/Meg scum team, but since both me and you know this isn't possible, we could do it if that's what you are already thinking anyway.

This can also backfire of course if it's a 6 cops : 4 doctors setup, and GL/Morph is the scum team. In that scenario confirming NQ is town is the best scenario.

However again, if I'm not being completely neutral, I think GL is town therefore an inno on one of us would help much more than a hypothetical guilty on Morph or NQ.

Eliminating Morph, Ceph checking me, Meg checking GL (aka the least likely to be scum in [Morph, GL] from most people views?), is indeed a good idea.

However, you need to assume a not complete neutral stance there that I'm not likely scum/GL isn't likely scum for example.

This was all derp

This is truly okay if Meg/Ceph are cop/cop but if it's doc/cop or cop/doc, you want to strictly check/clear the cops looking for a possible guilty/scum flip, since it would confirm the others.

So like, if Meg/Ceph are cop/doc or doc/cop, NQ being scum would clear me, and hypothetically me being scum would clear NQ.

[Shirou]

sigh

I had forgot that so I was secretly wondering if there wasn't an equally optimal path that begins with my miselimination, and I was getting the answer "yeah, kinda", which I found weird since yesterday I had concluded that my slot shouldn't die today for the most optimal mech, but unhappily now I was reminded of why I decided I should try to remain alive for today. My miselimination may be completely unnecessary/a waste depending on Meg/Ceph claims and what NQ flips/what result the cop gets on him huh

back to this I guess

VOTE: Morph

[Shirou]

But there's something positive about the time I wasted thinking about my possible miselimination chain I guess. If you're about to hammer me, I already asked for this but once again, please allow me to just post the mech stuff to do in that scenario considering my town flip.

Outside of that scenario where we're gonna be in 7:5 on claims tomorrow and NQ is scum, me dying today isn't that bad at all I guess, mech-wise.

p-edit: hello tejate, there's a mathematical reason to check me/NQ in case we're gonna be in 7:5.

[Shirou]

I'll give to you though that investigating me/NQ or one of the doctors has almost no difference if we adjust the entire chains to that in a 6:6 scenario.

Unhappily...we can't know if Meg/Ceph are both cops or one doc/one cop without lowering our odds of having at least one cop alive in either scenario.

[Shirou]

Elaborate, because I think an nQ check would be a lot more valuable.

If Ceph/Meg claims cop/doc, or doc/cop, we'll have 7 claimed doctors and 5 claimed cops.

There's at minimum 4 cops. Therefore if we find a scum in that scenario within the cops pool, all others are guaranteed town.

If you think I'm scum, if we're in that scenario, a check on me would clear automatically clear both NQ and fua slot.

If NQ is scum, and again we're in this 7:5 scenario, it would clear both me and fua slot.

It doesn't matter if you think I'm scum or not, a guilty on me in that scenario is the same thing as an inno on NQ, and vice-versa.

However as I said, if Meg/Ceph are both cops, checking me or NQ doesn't give us much in the grand picture of things.

[Shirou]

I tend to think the idea that scum would walk into a 7/5 for no reason is kind of a pipe dream

I also kinda do believe they would want to balance the claims but...right now, depending on the team, it's not as bad as it sounds to have the info "one of the doctors claim is a lie" confirmed.

[Shirou]

Spoiler: Trivia/Shitpost about the Setup

I believe the real risk of 7:5 for example, isn't the fact we know one of the 7 has to be lying.

It's the fact if we ever get one scum flip in the pool of 5 claims, we know all others are automatically town. That can be a bit game breaking depending on the scenario (on ours, it isn't).

Funnily enough you've 66% chance of this setup being 6:4 or 4:6. If you massclaim in D1 and make all cops target the pool of the role without the confirmation one has to be lying (the one with 7 claims), there's a decent chance you end up getting around 3 or 2 confirmed townies for free if it's a 6:4 or 4:6 setup and you find the scum there. But...It can also go horribly and be for nothing if it's a 5:5 setup and the pool you're checking only has one scum.

You would be forever looking for the second one until realizing that it's on the other unchecked pool

it can be a funny gamble for a marathon run of this setup. People are too serious to gamble on this in a normal game as the one we are though

[Shirou]

GL deserves a good amount of town credit imo due to me not being NK'd, I'm gonna trust people on Enchant for now. Fua is mathematically likely to be town.

That leaves me with Morph/NQ by process of elimination, so if we eliminate Morph and Meg checks for NQ, I believe there's good chances that either the game is over or I'll at least be confirmed I guess.

If it's 6:6 though and there's an inno on NQ tomorrow, I hope the site mods will excuse me but I'll self vote. It would be the actual ~optimal~ thing to do even if I'm town there (to confirm Meg and therefore the NQ result)...

Weirdly enough, I kinda want for it to be 6:6, Ceph dies tonight and there's somehow an inno on NQ kkkkk. Either that or we flip scum!Morph today and have a guilty on NQ tomorrow.

I'm trying to diligently play the rest of this game but honestly I'm already feeling a bit impatient and can't wait for it to be over or for me to die. I feel like there's not much left to do in this game other than tryhard in hedging against scum!fua/scum!Enchant which are fairly unlikely.

[Shirou]

Also this may be a bit LAMIST but stop and look on how this day is going.

Who are the most engaged players right now?

I would say, me and GL discussing what is the optimal stuff to do.

If we're scum our chance of winning this game at this point in any order of eliminations is really fairly slim, even more so with the plan I proposed (that makes it impossible in most scenarios). Would we really be this engaged in a game we've not only most likely lost but also be trying to deliver town the key to ensuring our defeat?

The unique thing that bugs me a bit about Morph/NQ is that NQ isn't voting for me but fua...but hm, I guess there could be explanations for that, and for me personally it could be Morph/Enchant.

Morph/Enchant would kinda make sense as well to me considering how much Morph skirted around Ydrasse. They kept shading her but never actually going ham on it.

/shrug

[Shirou]

Oh right.

Implo pool also had both Morph and NQ. He died.

I had GL but I'm alive. What's the most likely answer here, really?

[Shirou]

hm, actually on hindsight

Implo had Morph/NQ/Enchant. Exactly the pool of suspects I've in mind right now.

Hm, this is a convenient argument...maybe a bit too convenient in fact...

[Shirou]

@Ceph, Meg

I will ask again to confirm, now that I've explained why it's optimal to check me/NQ just in case we're in 7:5. If we eliminated Morph, would both of you agree to:

Ceph investigates me (if he's a cop)
Meg investigates NQ (if they're a cop)

Ceph protects Meg (if he's doctor)
Meg protects Ceph (if they're a doctor)

Would you agree to that?

Because if you don't, even if it's a bit suboptimal I may be forced to concede on me being eliminated today and just self-vote to make both of you listen to a mech plan upon my flip. I think that would still be better than not coordinating properly as we're right now (for example checking NQ is kinda useless if we eliminate me).

[Shirou]

I will ask again to confirm, now that I've explained why it's optimal to check me/NQ just in case we're in 7:5. If we eliminated Morph, would both of you agree to:

also, this assumes you would follow the plan regardless of Morph flip.

(even though I think they just flip scum...)

[Shirou]

Spoiler: yet another meaningless post from me that will only confuse you more while trying to read me, so don't read it maybe?

*gasp*

is it bad I lowkey want them to refuse to concede to the plan so that I can just die with a good and justified excuse?

I don't want to replace out (used to replace out way too often so I tried to ~vow~ not to replace anymore unless absolutely necessary), but this game is consuming a bit too much time/energy and there's plenty other stuff that is knocking on my door IRL right now...

If I get an inno on me I would be /in to this purgatory for more...three weeks or one month? That's a lot. I'm confident either GL or Morph if confirmed could positively contribute more for this game in long-term than I ever could. I'm mostly efforting right now because I feel it's a *duty* to convince people of a plan to increase our odds of winning against the most possible number of scum teams combination.

I'm gonna be honest, if I get inno'd here I'm just going to sit on it and vote within [Morph/NQ/Enchant] for the rest of the game, maybe trading Enchant for GL but I don't know, Morph/Enchant just makes sense to me and scum!GL had their chances to nightkill me and avoid risking being guilted.

[Shirou]

It's not throwing to me because even if they are "locktown" due to "meta", I don't know their meta, and am not obliged to do so.

It's the same as if I were try to argue that voting me is "borderline throwing" because my meta strongly points to me being town here. Even if it's true (it really is...), there's no way you would be able to know, and no one is obliged to know that.

If it's purely due to the argument you made off Ydrasse replacing, I don't buy it. Ydrasse is in a massive "I've no energy for scum games" phase. If her scum buddies complained, or if she realized that her team would be better off with someone else, I believe it's not unreasonable to expect she would replace out either way. She may be town but I don't see the locktown argument at all.

I'm gonna try to trust the consensus that Enchant is town until it's down to GL vs Enchant. If I'm alive by then, I'll reconsider it as everyone should at least a bit.

[Shirou]

This game/dayphase is still ongoing hm...

[Shirou]

Contentless "prodges" do not count for the purpose of resetting the prod timer.

okay here's the game related content then:

Much like fua I believe that Morph post about their flips was a bit weird, but dunno, could still come from town. Morph feels so...lost...in some posts and it's one of the few things that give me pause about believing in scum!Morph. I think they no longer see an endgame strategy if they're scum therefore explaining some of those posts? It would be the same for me if I was scum, so at least it's how I see it.

Either way, my dozing off gif post is more important though. It reflects the state of my soul...

[Shirou]

Hm, LAMIST by this point but I was about to say "morph last posts to GL kinda look more town than usual" but honestly I still wouldn't have changed my vote. I don't even know who else to vote other than potentially NQ here, but if you're town regardless of NQ alignment there's at least one other scum and...it doesn't sound like GL.

I really think there's one scum in fua/Enchant if Morph is really town but I believe we should stick with the plan anyway for the next day, so tomorrow either me or NQ being the elimination.

[Shirou]

enjoy the responsibility.

*thumbs up*

Sorry for getting your slot wrong if you aren't trolling. But you would have got me wrong as well so...hopefully we can forgive each other postgame.

[Shirou]

Hm

but Enchant helping out us by suggesting confirmation from Meg/Ceph for the mech plan doesn't sound like scum, does it now...?

Hm, If Morph is really town this is a headache, but to me it means NQ almost ~needs~ to be scum. If NQ is also town...hm, expect a problematic game I guess.

[Shirou]

If Morph is confirmed town I would normally try to sheep their reads for a bit due to me expecting town!ffery/town!Cabd to have better reads than me here on average, but the fact I'm their top suspects...don't give me a lot of confidence on that.

I think that's all I had to say before day end.

[Shirou]

:thonking:

[Shirou]

I see, we're in this kind of twist mhm...it's hard to believe, that the scum team gambitted not once, but twice, however this team is the unique thing that still makes sense to me with today posts and morph flipping town...

Enchant, I'm afraid that we shouldn't do my recommended chain at all of killing NQ today and then Ceph checking me.

I...may have lost nearly all belief that NQ can be scum here, and I've also now with you trying to stick to the plan gained the belief you're very likely town.

I believe we should eliminate me today, but before that, I need to talk to both of you, @Enchant, @NQ.

[Shirou]

Let's start our discussion by calming down and wondering, @NQ, @Enchant.

Right now on the "day before the last day". Who are the unique people that can be argued to be pushing an "agenda", as in, trying to steer the game or public opinion in a certain direction?

@Enchant, do you think this is someone trying to push the game in the direction they want?

I find myself in a strange position because I absolutely see the logic in limming me to clear Ceph, but it feels weird to be okay with that lol

Why was Meg the kill? Leaving Ceph alive risked getting a result on Shirou (since that seemed to be the most widely agreed plan coming out of D4), so I guess scum were okay with that happening. Makes me think the scum!Shirou solve isn't right.

At first when I saw the nightkill I thought it was to try and frame me, due to Meg promising to investigate me. And I was ready to accuse fua of being behind that, but... them blasting GL out the gate instead of me does not fit that narrative.

@NQ, do you think Enchant seems sure of what direction they want the game to go? Don't they seem to be simple struggling to come up with what's the best course of actions?

[Shirou]

What is this sacrificial bullshit, if you are town, it just confirms team as NQ and Ceph/Guilty, who ELSE can be?

You shall fight for the end.

Right now I believe Fua is scum with GL.

That's why of the sacrificial bullshit.

You/Tejate/NQ always lose to GL/Fua like things are now, and they seem to be pushing the game exactly on that direction.

You aren't pushing anything that can resemble an agenda. NQ isn't pushing anything resembling an agenda. Tejate hasn't posted yet.

However Fua/GL?

They always win by doing what they are doing today, for example:

Day 5: NQ miselimination
Night 5: Ceph dies

Day 6: GuiltyLion is guilted and eliminated
Night 6: Tejate dies

Day 7: Shirou is miseliminated.

It's a mafia win.

Even if somehow fua is eliminated, as long as they attach me to the other one, they still win considering how public opinion is right now.

Say Enchant, why do you think Meg was the one that died? They risked me being confirmed town from my pov, but they weren't willing to risk NQ being the confirmed town?

Curiously enough, I did town read GL, and NQ did scum read Fua.

Who's the bigger threat here if GL is town and Fua isn't scum? It should have been me. I kept saying that I wouldn't vote Fua, and that GL was very likely town and my last option/resort, while NQ just kept insisting on Fua being scum.

If Fua wasn't scum, scum team would want to keep NQ around so that they boost their chances to the maximum of miseliminating Fua. It's the unique way a scum team completely inside Shirou/GL/NQ can win.

[Shirou]

@Tejate @Enchant @NQ

If I don't change my mind that the scum team is Fua/GL, I almost recommend me being the elimination today, but please let me talk to you until I'm satisfied, I want to convince you of what I'm seeing right now.

Ceph opinion is...hm, honestly kinda not very important in long-term because if NQ is town like at the moment I think, Ceph is gonna eventually die tonight or tomorrow anyway. In this scenario Ceph isn't going to decide the result of this game, but rather two of @Tejate/@Enchant/@NQ likely will.

[Shirou]

Good thing I'm not voting NQ. Shirou is posting blatant TMI.

It doesn't matter if it's NQ or me.

You are just gonna pair up the other one with GL to win.

[Shirou]

I think Shirou accidentally just confirmed NQ and Ceph are just town.

Scenarios where I'm scum are gonna be irrelevant when this day ends. I WANT to be killed today.

Therefore to anyone that is town, can we please just hear me out for a bit? I'm not even gonna vote for fua/GL today, I know I need to verify my alignment first for any hopes of being listened to right now, but I really believe Ceph just dies tonight.

If Ceph goes for a GL check, they may let Ceph live so that GL can 1v1 Ceph even if it's unlikely for GL to win there (they could accuse Ceph of being partners with NQ for example).

If Ceph goes for a Enchant check, I believe he'll live through the night since it's a harmless check mostly.

If Ceph goes for a fua check, they'll suddenly die and GL will be guilted.

To check my theory, one of the few things you have to do is leash Ceph to fua, and then confirm my alignment today to show you that I'm not scum with GL.

Of course, they may go for a WIFOM of letting Ceph get the guilty on fua and claim that GL wouldn't let him do it if they were a partner, but hm, dunno how convincing that would be.

[Shirou]

If you think GL is scum then why didn't you check him???? What changed in between now and your last read????????????????????/

I thought GL could be scum like I said, but I thought there was very little chance that he would let me live if he was scum.

Therefore, if I checked him and he was scum, I would most likely be sent to the dead thread before being able to announce my guilty.

If I wasn't sent to the dead thread, I was likely gonna get a confirmation he was town even though it would be kinda ~obvious~ he would be town if I lived...at least in most scenarios.

Therefore, I firmly believed GL was town and Morph was the scum in the doctors.

However, not only Morph flipped town, but NQ doesn't sound very much like scum today. It feels like they have almost no plan, no will to fight, and I know NQ unique possible partner is GL.

However GL is full of life! Doesn't feel like doomed scum at all.

From today posting I believe Enchant is really just likely town.

What's up with that then?

If it's GL/NQ, why is NQ so defeatist today when they should be trying to get either me or fua eliminated together with GL?

Maybe the answer is, NQ is town even though they should be almost confirmed scum to me under my assumptions yesterday. And that means by process of elimination that it needs to be you/GL since I know my alignment, and plan to verify it without doubt today.

[Shirou]

if both of you're scum as I suspect at the moment, your mindset coming to this day and right now would also be just try to shade me and discredit as much as possible even if I say I'm willing to be the elimination today voluntarily (and therefore, maybe even self-vote).

However both Enchant and NQ didn't seem very keen on me today, even though they should if they were scum. This really just feel like a huge theater between fua and GL.

@Tejate, @Enchant, @NQ why do you think that in the last bits of D3, fua tried to change GL from my cop pool to their own?

They may say "I suspected GL/Shirou as a team" right now to excuse their behavior there but that's just wasn't true back in D3. They weren't suspicious or at least not very suspicious of a me/GL team at all back then.

The real reason fua wanted GL in their cop pool, is because rather than Tejate for example, they would be able to clear their partner GL, and the pool right now would be Tejate/NQ/Shirou since consensus believed fua. They would have a surplus of eliminations if this was the case, but right now they don't.

Fua was testing me on GL back in D3, and when I flip town, please consider the fact it may all be for the simple reason that fua is GL's partner.

[Shirou]

I am not full of life

I am full of rage at my name still being dragged through the mud

all because I dared to give you a chance Shirou!

kkkkk

I can't see many universes where you're town right now (unless it's fua/NQ I guess? but that feels kinda weird considering NQ was pushing for fua at the same time they said I wasn't very likely?), but this will be funny once I flip town as well if you're ever town here.

Like, I think Fua/NQ isn't impossible but hm, dunno, doesn't feel like it to me considering how NQ is acting.

[Shirou]

You acknowlidge that even if Ceph guilty Fua, it will be very tricky situation without Ceph being confirmed first by NQ death? And that's reason why i plan NQ elim at first place?

You really have hope the team is NQ/Ceph here? I've lost all hope this game is that simple.

Enchant you're right that technically what I'm doing is risky and suboptimal considering Ceph won't be confirmed, but stop and think through MY pov right now.

I'm rather confident the team is Fua/GL right now.

If we do stuff like *you* want, it'll be JUST like the chains of events I described.

Fua vs Ceph isn't a good idea, but me vs fua IS EVEN WORSE in a scenario where fua is scum (which is what I believe right now).

NQ to me is the unique townie that genuinely suspects fua, eliminating him right now when I believe fua is scum is PLAIN SUICIDE.

If I really had to choose someone to eliminate today, it would be GL. but I also know that if I'm ever wrong, I just removed any chance of Ceph getting a result on fua!

Tejate is confirmed. Right now I really believe you're town since you're talking to me like this as well rather than just take advantage of this to shade me (like fua and GL is doing by the way?).

WHO ELSE can I kill today without completely ruining our odds if I'm wrong, but still giving us a solid chance against scum!fua/scum!GL in case I'm right?

There's no slot like that Enchant. Yesterday it was Morph, so I pushed them, but right now trading my slot for NQ feels like a complete mistake.

[Shirou]

If I ever vote Enchant or Tejate consider it a scumclaim and turbolim me.

@Everyone.

this makes no sense to say either...why the hell would you vote Tejate?

like, aren't you a cop with a check?

This is pure AtE and appealing for Enchant to stick with you in my opinion.

Enchant, both GL/Fua have been defending you non stop since you repped in. You really think that's normal town behavior?

They are buddying you.

[Shirou]

There. That guarantees I won't survive if it comes down to me vs. Enchant. Not that I think it ever will.

It never comes down to you vs Enchant right now if you're scum with GL...

[Shirou]

If fua's GL/Shirou solve is true, GL is heavily distancing. Which could be very possible in this gamestate for that team. However, I think I'd expect scum!GL to push for fua instead if his partner is Shirou. I dont currently have a concrete reason for this beyond my impression of GL's opinion towards fua from the end of the previous day. Just seems like that'd be an out besides bussing your partner this hard when scum is already in a precarious state.

NQ PLEASE

I'M ALREADY DYING

Can we stop thinking "what is shirou's partner" for a bit and consider my suggestion of Fua/GL?

What is my goddamn plan as scum here by trying to push a self-sacrifice rather than miseliminate you (since you should know you're town and therefore not scum with me in that scenario)?

You really think the best I can do as scum here is get myself eliminated willingly?