Open 589: Duck Duck Goose (Game Over: Somebody Won)

[davesaz]

VOTE: oddmusic

I like odd music (both senses of odd) but have never played with oddmusic.

[davesaz]

Without flavor he votes. Dissapointed I am.

[davesaz]

Welcome Storyteller! And thanks LlamaFluff for working through the rough patch!

[davesaz]

It's page 3 and you're all whining about RVS related things even though you're claiming it's not RVS..

So I've got no comment.

Well, some of the people who are talking are whining about it, that's true. How do you feel things should go? Pick someone to wagon for the reaction? Respond to the whining. It's clear you're not going to join in to the whining, and TBH that doesn't bother me at all.

[davesaz]

Yes, this is my first game. Does this mean you consider me a town read yourself, then? If not, what do you think about my postion thus far?

To me it's less what you said and more how you said it, which I still find it a funny exercise to interpret tone in a bunch of text on a screen. Your willingness to admit the progression of the game and keep it rolling speak to me about your intent. I'm liking it so far.

I am cautious, though, as you have said you'd been following and analyzing mafia "a lot" so you would obviously know to project confidence early and often if you were to roll mafia in the first game you were participating in.

Speaking of new vs. experienced, you seem to know the lingo pretty well yourself, for someone with a joindate only a couple weeks ago. Have you played mafia before?

[davesaz]

Taly may have my first town read for actually being the one to end RVS.

Is that something you can really get a town read for? I'm not aware of any statistics on alignment of RVS enders.

[davesaz]

Kaboose's 69 and 65 are concise which is good, but it's annoying to be required to follow the links.
The embedded post number style would be enhanced by putting a name there too, like I've demonstrated in this reply.

[davesaz]

Taly, nice post. It's pretty early to draw conclusions but I like that you're willing to have an opinion regarding what little there is to analyze. You missed me, but I tend not to talk a lot this early in the game so I don't mind too much.

Pedit: oddmusic, yes it's scary to make decisions on one or two posts, but we can also read a lot from a person's reaction. The first wagon is usually not the one which goes through, but it often reveals a lot from that reaction and from how the voting and non-voting players handle it. I also agree that we need to hear from dodgy and honey bee.

2nd edit: Nice use of editing by way of post (EBWOP)

[davesaz]

Netherspite is <redacted>, get out of my game please

talah, don't ask obvious questions you have the answers to. Useless. Use your time scumhunting, not asking me why I made an obvious RVS vote please.

Taly is <redacted>.

Discuss.

Couple things.
1. Please keep it civil. Yes I know it's Mafia and some degree of antagonism is expected. It's up to the game mod to set official limits, not me. I'm asking nicely.

2. I see from your "location" that this is a hydra account. If you're playing it like a normal hydra with both players involved, it may be helpful to the rest of us if you identify who posts what. Again, just a polite request.

[davesaz]

Code: Select all

[post]138[/post]

Is how you link to a post.

[davesaz]

Netherspite gave good advice on having your own opinion and not being manipulated, since some advice could be from scum. I don't think it's alignment indicative, but still good advice. Asking for non-gut reads on vettrock and myself seems to be for the purpose of figuring us out.

We can't read the late realization that scum have daytalk as a town slip. Scum could post that in the game as a way of telling buddies to get in the PT. Being daytalk we can look for unnatural degrees of coordination as a possible scumtell.

[davesaz]

Oh, more importantly:

Why is my vote 'bad'? It's better than yours. Mine is actually because I think someone is scummily jumping on a D1 easy-wagon to free-lynch-ville, whereas your vote is "Uh, uh, their vote is bad and um, their response is bad! Yeah! I'm gonna jump on the wagon!"

I

honestly

think this is actually a newbie-fuckup trying to fit in onto the biggest wagon whether than necessarily a scum fuckup

Do you have any reads? Any plans for activity which isn't reactions to the vote?

[davesaz]

I think there needs to be a revolution among Mafia games that D1 becomes less scum hunting based on absolutely nothing(unless a game mechanic changes that of course) and evolves to be more of removing dead weight in hopes of prolonging those the town deem most helpful moving forward.

While I agree with the sentiment of this since the D1 lynch is almost always garbage based on some nuance of something that someone posted, or the way the wind happens to blow, the problem with just lynching the useless/lurkers is it provides very little information for D2. D2 you have the wagon and the voting from the day before, and the NK. If you just policy lynch, you are left with only the NK.

vettrock, Kaboose: Nice theory discussion. Have you seen enough to get some reads going?

[davesaz]

Like how davesaz is asking for reads from someone who has made their position clear but he hasn't made an effort to clearly state his own.

Hmm, I didn't think that any of the people I asked had stated reads, per se.

I use this information to do some of my reads. I usually don't state reads till I have them.

[davesaz]

My scum team right now is ChriVi and NJAC.

You posted a little bit about ChriVi, but I don't see any substantial comments about NJAC. Please explain.

[davesaz]

Here are my general impressions so far. I need to prepare for work so can't spend a lot of time quoting right now, but would be happy to explain later.

Town vibes from Taly, Talah, Honey Bee, Netherspite, oddmusic, Ploben.

Neutral for ChriVi. I see how many players took the caustic tone of ChriVi's posting and made it scum, but I don't buy that. I'd prefer to go on content over tone. The content isn't overly scummy, but it certainly isn't really town either.

Null for Vettrock, NJAC. Would need to see more activity.

Dodgy's few posts aren't inspiring. The vote on ChriVi seems opportunistic and I don't see any evidence of trying to figure things out. Weak scum.

Kaboose didn't explain reads very well, doesn't look as opportunistic as Dodgy but still lean scum.

VOTE: Dodgy56

[davesaz]

Taking this opportunity (in the middle of the work day) to post a reminder that I did say that time was short and I know I didn't explain the town reads.

[davesaz]

@Mod:

On the last VC, NJAC and ChriVi were tied, but you said ChriVi would be lynched. Is a tie decided by first to reach that number, or is it a no-lynch?

[davesaz]

So you don't care, at all?
So... tempted... to... vote... ploben...

[davesaz]

I have seen townies do what ChriVi did, as a means of kickstarting conversation. If nothing else, they find out who buys their move without question and who jumps on it. And who doesn't really pay much attention. It is risky, though not terribly so when we're halfway into a 3 week day.

There is a solid reason for townies to act mildly scummy, but it doesn't apply in this game. The reason I'm thinking of is PR's who want to slip by between the lynch and the NK.

I need to digest the results of the above before coming to any conclusions about it.

[davesaz]

I'm going to need to re-read and evaluate.

[davesaz]

Ploben why am I scum?

I have a better question for you: why are you town? Can you point to legitimate scum hunting?

[davesaz]

Ploben why am I scum?

I have a better question for you: why are you town? Can you point to legitimate scum hunting?

My goodness. I hope you have a good follow-up to this question.

Do you find anyone scummy apart from Kaboose, based on your re-evaluation?

I'm going to need to re-read and evaluate.

The question does have a point.

[davesaz]

Ploben why am I scum?

I have a better question for you: why are you town? Can you point to legitimate scum hunting?

I also want to point out now that davesez isn't asking me to point out scum hunting of mine in the sense that he thinks I'll be able to find some for him to look at. He's asking a rhetorical question to call me out on what he believes to be a lack of scum hunting. Which is funny that he wants to use that as a reason to push my lynch, when I'm less guilty of it than... Oh I don't know... NJAC? So davesez would rather lynch me for not scum hunting than NJAC for not scum hunting. Cute.

Either way I'd like to see what the replacement is like in that slot before I probably cast another vote.

Replying to this part first. I do have thoughts on the other parts of the post.

I actually hadn't made up my mind on your alignment. I wanted to see who attacks you, who defends you, and how you reply.

You're attributing a motive to my question without having any idea what my true motive is. I actually was asking you to point out your scum hunting, in case you had posted something that you thought was scum hunting but I didn't see it as such. So it was an invitation to identify your actions that have town motivation. If you do have some town posts and others are dismissing them it gives me a lead on those people. And if you don't then it tells me something about you. Attributing a motive like that instead of answering the question shows you're trying to discredit the question. Looks scummy to me.

I found it interesting that, given this opportunity, you chose to compare yourself to NJAC and not others. In particular, you could have pointed at me, but you didn't. This tells me that you don't want to take the risk of accusing someone who probably does have the ability to fight back. Instead you're still trying to keep the focus on NJAC who is being replaced. I think that's pretty scummy.

On the theory question of whether it is useful to lynch an inactive player... Town should generally do this as a last resort, when they have no good scumreads. Obviously you might catch scum by voting a scummy player. Second best, a scummy town player is a liability later in the game because they give scum a mislynch target; and if they survive to LYLO then it ups scum's chances a lot. A true inactive will invariably be replaced which will yield more information. A scum replacement is often uneasy with the situation, and a town replacement often goes gangbusters to telegraph their alignment. So lynching an inactive is only better than a no-lynch. In this game we won't have any no-lynches. The theory is scummy.

I think that's the trifecta of scummy posting all in one shot, but I'm going to do a little vote counting before I throw down. We can wait for a NJAC replacement and with the lynch mechanics a lead is all you need. I'd definitely be willing to vote.

[davesaz]

The question does have a point.

What was the point? Your next post 451 implies that the point was a reaction test, or to gauge a response. In which case, why not wait for the reaction from my own vote first?

I was replying while reading, so had not reached Kaboose's post to reply to when I posted 450.

[davesaz]

I don't like the lynch anti-town attitude either. That is the part I disagreed with. After looking at it some more, I'm just saying that the replace out when the wagon is building against me is something that scum do. Are there plenty of other reasons why this happens? Of course, but I do think the NJAC slot gets half a scum point for it. Considering my case against Honey is fairly weak as is and I'm not moving my vote should tell you about where to rank that. Now if the replacement comes in a starts scumming it up, it will be a factor. I agree with waiting to see the replacement's actions before passing judgement on the slot.

I don't put a lot of faith in the "replace out when the wagon's building" theory. I think NJAC's activity dropped site wide, after peeking in the "user's posts" view. Agree, we need to see actual posting from the replacement to be able to sort NJAC's slot better.

[davesaz]

Dave is weird. Le weird. I've misread him before, I remember that avatar. Inclined to think he plays close to the chest, not always pro-town, but I'm saying town.

Yeah, your avatar is familiar too, and I recognize the style.

[davesaz]

Vote: Taly

Please join us friends, in welcoming the scum to the noose!

You get bonus points if you don't make me explain why

Mmmmm, nah. I bet at least 5 people here are good enough to get it without a paint by numbers.

I must say, after our previous encounter I have serious misgivings about sheeping you. But I do see it... TBH it was right there all along, but the steady drip gets numbing after a while. It's pretty damn obvious if you're looking fresh or if you ISO.

When I read Taly's posts, I see "if you can't dazzle them with your brilliance then baffle them with your B.S." Are we on the same wavelength on that?
What I'm not sure of is how to make that alignment indicative. How do we know it's not just "loquacious newb"?
I think we get plenty of information anyway, and that's good for town, but weigh Taly vs Vettrock with that question in mind. Still like Taly better?

[davesaz]

On phone. Vote later. Missing something i expected to see.

[davesaz]

I was really surprised that GreyICE changed targets, apparently at my behest, after such a soft question. Feels like appeasement. It's not like my post regarding our previous game was a scathing attack on his scumhunting. I really meant it more in a lighthearted way but he jumps right up and switches to Vettrock. That makes me even more nervous about him than the brash entry did.

It's equally disturbing that nobody called it appeasement. I'm not exactly a model of uber town here, so I very much expected to see that challenged.

Taly constructively misunderstood my post as saying I have a town read. I know my writing can be hard to catch, but I was agreeing with GreyICE's point that Taly's posting is a lot of words which don't add up to real scum hunting, hence it was a scum read.

My earlier phone post promising a vote was overly optimistic. I do plan to make my vote count before deadline, but the strangeness is bugging me and I want to resolve it with some rereading. I'm wondering if there is a pattern that can help nail scum here and now.

[davesaz]

@Mod, please update the VC at your earliest convenience.

[davesaz]

So your answer is that you didn't get around to answering, and scumread you for that if I will?

odd stop wasting my time and post next when you've read and actually have an answer. Or, ignore it and reassess your reads and come back with something which either reinforces your current vote or indicates who you might vote for at deadline, if you don't have time to actually scumhunt or provide content which might make you more readable.

Note that I'm voting you, and you're the leading wagon.

I'm having a really hard time figuring this out. If I take this at face value, you're voting the leading wagon because that player townread me, and then wouldn't answer why? Really?

[davesaz]

And you're scumreading him because...

[davesaz]

So, you dont have to answer questions?

[davesaz]

Ehhhh... I'm prod-dodging.

If the oddmusic wagon gets bigger than the Kaboose wagon I'll likely switch.

Besides, I'm looking forward to talking it out.


Welcome Grey. I wanted to play with Kuribo for ages but I guess you'll just have to do.
I've read a few of your games too but I'm sure you don't want piss in your pocket.


Should be back on board within about 24h. I haven't checked the deadline but am hoping we've got a few days...

VOTE: oddmusic

Now the oddmusic wagon is bigger. Lovely.

Whichever I vote is bigger right now. And I like odd for scum better thank Kaboose partially because I was unsure about him (but thought he was a good candidate) when I voted him, and then the dave and nether show turned up to "assist" with thin reasoning off the back of it.

oddmusic I've been wary of for a bit and he owes me the answer to a question. Also I'm liking ChriVi and ploben for town.

vettrock - egh maybe. I have him in the null possibly dubious pile along with netherspite.

I feel like oddmusic's a better offering for lynch overall given 2 days to go.

No, because of his fake readslist and ignoring my question. Among other things.

I could be wrong. We'll see how it goes but I'm not sitting around doing nothing at this stage.

So your answer is that you didn't get around to answering, and scumread you for that if I will?

odd stop wasting my time and post next when you've read and actually have an answer. Or, ignore it and reassess your reads and come back with something which either reinforces your current vote or indicates who you might vote for at deadline, if you don't have time to actually scumhunt or provide content which might make you more readable.

Note that I'm voting you, and you're the leading wagon.

So your answer is that you didn't get around to answering, and scumread you for that if I will?

odd stop wasting my time and post next when you've read and actually have an answer. Or, ignore it and reassess your reads and come back with something which either reinforces your current vote or indicates who you might vote for at deadline, if you don't have time to actually scumhunt or provide content which might make you more readable.

Note that I'm voting you, and you're the leading wagon.

I'm having a really hard time figuring this out. If I take this at face value, you're voting the leading wagon because that player townread me, and then wouldn't answer why? Really?

So your answer is that you didn't get around to answering, and scumread you for that if I will?

odd stop wasting my time and post next when you've read and actually have an answer. Or, ignore it and reassess your reads and come back with something which either reinforces your current vote or indicates who you might vote for at deadline, if you don't have time to actually scumhunt or provide content which might make you more readable.

Note that I'm voting you, and you're the leading wagon.

I'm having a really hard time figuring this out. If I take this at face value, you're voting the leading wagon because that player townread me, and then wouldn't answer why? Really?

I don't understand what you're asking. I'm voting oddmusic because I think he's scum.

And you're scumreading him because...

Because read the thread.

Bullshit. I am reading the thread, and you're voting oddmusic solely because he's the leading wagon and didn't answer your question.

VOTE: talah

[davesaz]

dave & odd

Why do you feel the need to stall the game at the end of the day by either asking questions already answered (but you not reading the game or wanting your particular answer spoon fed to you) or writting huge posts explaining why you didn't answer a previous question instead of just answering the question?

I think my talah post answers this, right? But if it doesn't please feel free to ask a follow up.

[davesaz]

I would consider Kaboose. Don't want to lynch vettrock given my concerns about GreyICE and really suspicious of both taly and talah on oddmusic's wagon.

[davesaz]

Me too.

[davesaz]

So, assuming I'm any good at logic, and the scum didn't do something highly illogical just to mess with us, the other scum are Kaboose and Oddmusic.

[davesaz]

So, assuming I'm any good at logic, and the scum didn't do something highly illogical just to mess with us, the other scum are Kaboose and Oddmusic.

No they're both town. Don't do this please.

I didn't rack up a 13 game win streak on my old site by being a bad player. You're going to have to do better than just dismiss me.

<wonders when I'll be asked what the logic is>

Pedit: If odd was the counter wagon and town, then all 3 scum have to be on it. Corollary left to the students.

[davesaz]

So, assuming I'm any good at logic, and the scum didn't do something highly illogical just to mess with us, the other scum are Kaboose and Oddmusic.

No they're both town. Don't do this please.

I didn't rack up a 13 game win streak on my old site by being a bad player. You're going to have to do better than just dismiss me.

<wonders when I'll be asked what the logic is>

Pedit: If odd was the counter wagon and town, then all 3 scum have to be on it. Corollary left to the students.

Nah, only 2. And one is dead.

One scum bussed.

That goes to the illogical part of my previous post.

If one scum bussed, then all they had to do was unvote to lynch odd. If the 3rd scum was off both wagons, all they had to do was vote odd to lynch. The bussing scum could even unvote and revote, and odd would become the new lynch leader.

Scum would absolutely bus if they didn't have a choice, I'm not arguing that. But there are too many ways for scum to avoid needing to bus, if odd was town, given the plurality lynch mechanics.

My theory does blow off the possibility that someone hardcore bussed as a strategy from the getgo. I bet you can guess who I'd have as my first candidate for someone with the stones to pull that off.

And I'm being assertive, but there is nothing personal about it, contrary to what you suggested in your other post. Sorry if it seemed that way.

[davesaz]

Late night here, hope I don't mangle this too badly.

I'm hunting scum. The technique involves not voting at this time. There is bait in the water, please don't disturb.

Would scum post logic that fingers themselves? To borrow from GreyICE's ideas, would

fearful

scum post something that pointed straight back at them?

I am townreading GreyICE based on his posts today. The fragment you quoted is me suggesting my logic would be wrong if scum bussed hardcore. How did you read the last part of that quote? What was I trying to say? What does it mean about the confidence of this townread?

Let's discuss the choice I faced at end of day. We have two wagons tied. One player I think is scum is off wagon with me. The leading wagon is on someone I think is scum. Note: saying I don't want to vote Vettrock is part of the scumhunting plan and did AFAIR I did not say anything about him not being a scumread.
1. Vote odd, who at the time I thought was less likely to be scum.
1a . If odd is scum, good for town, but we lost a chance to test Kaboose's alignment
1b. If odd is town, then we lose any chance of lynching Vettrock at that time, unless at least 2 net votes change (either 2 unvote odd, 2 vote vettrock, or someone switches odd to vettrock)
2. Vote vettrock, who at the time I thought was a little more likely to be scum.
2a. If vettrock is scum that's good for town, but we lose info a mafia switch might have gained.
2b. If vettrock is town, nothing can save him short of 2 people switching to odd. We also lose a chance to learn Kaboose's (and perhaps other) alignments
3. Do nothing. Vettrock who I think is a little scummier is up for lynch
3a. Scum do nothing, vettrock is lynched.
3a1. Vettrock scum. We know something about Kaboose (and coincidentally me) since voting odd would potentially save vettrock
3a2. Vettrock town. As town, my staying off his wagon reduces the number of people on it who could be scum.
3b. Scum save vettrock, odd is lynched.
3b1. Odd scum, scum who switch look like townies until we get a vettrock flip
3b2. Odd town, scum who switch look like scum

Cases 1b, 2b, 3a2 are clearly bad. Best cases for town are 3b2 and 3a1. Given the number of good outcomes from doing nothing, that clearly is the best play for town. Coincidentally it is also the best play for me personally.

[davesaz]

I switched to watching mode with a day to go or so, and continued to monitor off and on up to a couple hours.
My post about the choice to leave the wagons tied was about that timeframe, not earlier.
It's not an embellishment. Those are my actual thoughts from that time. A bit more organized of course, I don't actually

think

in logic.

I prefer to wait a bit more for the explanation.

I posed a question to Talah. Anyone can answer now.

[davesaz]

-Taly is all over the place
-The Vett and Odd wagons exploded after I voted them
-We should look more. Hang on.

Agreed on the first point.

I think the 2nd point is pushing things a bit. You were on Vettrock for less than 50 posts. It looks to me like you're trying to take credit for the Vettrock lynch where none is due.

Agree with looking more, but perhaps not where you're looking.

[davesaz]

Scumreads include: Odd, NJAC, and maybe slightly Nether.

Townreads are a weak Honey read, and Plob.

Deavas is the towniest of the nullreads.
Why is nobody cincerned that Yoda is rambling off abut random things and not participating?
Kaboose has a large wagon for not being the scummiest player.

Vett not in scum reads.

vote: Vett

Say something relevant that also takes a firm postiion.

Votes vett.

Spoiler: vc

Vote Count 1.14

With 12 alive it's 7 votes to Lynch.

Voting for:

Netherspite (0):
davesaz (0):
talah (0):
Honey bee (1): vettrock
NJAC (1): Kaboose
Pisskop(1): davesaz
vettrock (1): Pisskop

Kaboose (3): Honey bee, oddmusic, ploben

oddmusic (0):
ploben (0):
ChriVi (1): Talah
Taly (0):

If deadline is reached without any changes to the votes,

Kaboose

would be lynched.

Not voting (4): Netherspite, NJAC, ChriVi, Taly

Deadline is March 22nd, 0600 UTC or in (expired on 2015-03-22 06:00:00)

True, the only vote on Vett. But...

So ChriVi thinks I'm useless apparently. Opinion's mutual my double-headed friend.

@Pisskop: What do you think of vettrock now? H'es been posting more, but I could absolutely see the argument that he hasn't said much of substance yet.

Warming up to the vettrock lynch a little. Helps that vettrock completely got Honey Bee's play this game wrong.

I cant stand all these people 'warming up' to a Vet wagon.

vote: Odd

Why, when you were the first one to vote him? And how is "warming up" bad, when the reason is that your argument is good? See yellow hilight, which I don't remember seeing when this post was quoted later.

Spoiler: vc

Vote Count 1.15

With 12 alive it's 7 votes to Lynch.

Voting for:

Netherspite (0):
davesaz (0):
talah (0):
Honey bee (0):
NJAC (0):
Pisskop(1): davesaz
vettrock (1): Honey bee

Kaboose (3): oddmusic, ploben, Talah

oddmusic (2): ChriVi, Pisskop
ploben (0):
ChriVi (0):
Taly (0):

If deadline is reached without any changes to the votes,

Kaboose

would be lynched.

Not voting (5): Netherspite, NJAC, vettrock, Kaboose, Taly

Deadline is March 22nd, 0600 UTC or in (expired on 2015-03-22 06:00:00)

Very next votecount. There is only one voting for Vettrock. I don't see any way you can claim the wagon "blew up" after you started it and then immediately left.

Voted someone you didn't have a scumread on. Maybe goading a partner to be active?
Dropped it like a hot potato at 2 votes after a 3rd player acts like he's going to join in.
Vote that player, who was a scum read before but you didn't vote him then.

After the flip

, claim you started the Vettrock wagon, and by extension that you're somehow responsible for it.

VOTE: pisskop

[davesaz]

Please explain your kaboose and odd reads tho. Odd and vett doesn't feel as vicious as scum normally bus expecially with vett leaving his vote on the random and I'm not sure how the logic your using to defend yourself doesn't apply to kaboose.

I prefer to wait a bit more for the explanation.

The logic for Oddmusic is still pretty straightforward. Scum didn't take the opportunity to swing the lynch off their buddy. This leads to: 1) He's one of them; 2) They're all on his wagon; 3) He's town but switching to him would be way too obvious. I didn't think that all scum being on his wagon was too likely, and didn't think scum would pass up an opportunity to lynch town unless they'd be guaranteed to be fingered. Without the Vettrock flip we don't know the final switch is to save a buddy, so it's not obvious right away.

Kaboose logic required Oddmusic to be scum, with the thought being that he wouldn't want to vote either one. But this is flawed -- scum in Kaboose's position (or mine) facing wagons on both their buddies absolutely should bus (and forcefully) to guarantee they look town for essentially hammering.

The reason for holding off on this explanation was to see if anyone would bite hard on Kaboose being scum, and to see what Kaboose's reaction was.

The case my vote is based on is better than either of these.

[davesaz]

@talah, you apparently didn't notice that one of my mentions of Vettrock was to suggest to GreyICE that he was a better target then Taly. GreyICE and the votes which followed were essentially the swing that got Vettrock lynched. You're suggesting I redirected a likely townie onto my buddy who only had a couple of votes at the time.

I wonder if this is a really indirect chainsaw...

[davesaz]

@davesaz:
So you don't have to answer questions?

Is there a question I haven't answered?

[davesaz]

@Nether: Having a 3rd lynch candidate be a null-scum is not an issue. As town I'd consider a null-town for a lynch to avoid a no-lynch. It wouldn't be a first choice...

[davesaz]

Davesaz - Do you find Talah scummy at all?

Heyyyy Dave. hi.

Gonna need to analyze more than 100 posts to be able to answer. Earlier, as in literally the last time I looked at the thread, it might have been easy. But Talah changed completely.

[davesaz]

Supplementary question:
Who am I indirectly chainsawing, and why?

Given there are so many points, some more obvious than others, I'll answer separately.

Chainsaw is a defense by attacking the attacker, or at least that's the meaning I got when others tried to accuse me of it. Obviously that would be pisskop, since I'm voting him and he's the leading wagon.

[davesaz]

1)

Why aren't fearful scum likely to stay off both wagons?
- since you were off both wagons and you're trying to present fearful scum as something else

My point, which I thought was as plain as it was possible to make it, is there was no evidence that scum were fearful

at that time

. Not to mention, it's not even my term.

GreyICE

came along and called them fearful

after

the flip and no-kill.

Since scum would have had no reason to be fearful at the time, fearfulness is immaterial to reading the VCA.

GreyICE thinks scum are fearful this game. Do I look fearful to you? If you're looking for fearful people, look for the ones who aren't posting much.
(Whether this fearfulness thing is accurate or not goes to a different point and will be answered separately.

[davesaz]

4)

Why are you obfuscating a lot of the actions you are taking?
- since this is highly anti-town and just as likely to provoke town as it is to catch scum, and I think it might be so you can make something up later

It's called scumhunting. There are times that town want to give scum something to react to. It is a valid observation that town might react to it too. The skill is in looking at both reactions to see which is the town reaction and which is scum.

My first post of the day (logic says Odd and Kaboose are scum) without explaining why was a reaction test based on actual logic. That logic went "I'm town, and tied wagons implies both wagons are scum, which implies Odd is scum, which implies Kaboose is scum and couldn't bear to choose which buddy to keep". Several reactions are possible.

• Point out the logic error
• Accept the logic and attack either Odd or Kaboose
• Attack me
• Ignore the whole thing
• Something I didn't anticipate

Part of the logic turns out to be incorrect. I noticed this fairly soon but decided to slow play the reveal. Another reaction test, similar possible results.

Reaction tests usually require some hidden element. And they usually depend on not having interference from other players.

[davesaz]

@Nether: Having a 3rd lynch candidate be a null-scum is not an issue. As town I'd consider a null-town for a lynch to avoid a no-lynch. It wouldn't be a first choice...

But we have a plurality rule.
Why attempting to push your nullscum-read even in the third place?

I did not pay attention to the details of who the 3 people are for Talah. I'm stating a theoretical position. Up to you to decide whether you think it's a reasonable interpretation. Though I might consider it an interesting thing to look at.

If the lynch leaders include a town and a null, and plurality lynch rules are in effect, you're better off voting the null than doing nothing. The point of attack when looking at this is not that the person voted was nullscum when there are higher scum reads. The point of attack is why the other wagoned player (who later flipped scum) was a town read.

If the lynch leaders include a scum and a null, with or without plurality, and someone votes the null -- then this is very questionable. If your point is that Talah was scum reading Vettrock and only nullscum on Odd, and voted Odd, then I'd consider it a smoking gun.

[davesaz]

Regarding myself, and GreyICE, and "credit for Vettrock lynch".

Vote: Taly

Please join us friends, in welcoming the scum to the noose!

You get bonus points if you don't make me explain why

Mmmmm, nah. I bet at least 5 people here are good enough to get it without a paint by numbers.

When I read Taly's posts, I see "if you can't dazzle them with your brilliance then baffle them with your B.S." Are we on the same wavelength on that?
What I'm not sure of is how to make that alignment indicative. How do we know it's not just "loquacious newb"?
I think we get plenty of information anyway, and that's good for town, but weigh Taly vs Vettrock with that question in mind. Still like Taly better?

I must say, after our previous encounter I have serious misgivings about sheeping you. But I do see it... TBH it was right there all along, but the steady drip gets numbing after a while. It's pretty damn obvious if you're looking fresh or if you ISO.

When I read Taly's posts, I see "if you can't dazzle them with your brilliance then baffle them with your B.S." Are we on the same wavelength on that?
What I'm not sure of is how to make that alignment indicative. How do we know it's not just "loquacious newb"?
I think we get plenty of information anyway, and that's good for town, but weigh Taly vs Vettrock with that question in mind. Still like Taly better?

We're on the same wavelength with Taly, but with a few extras that I'll expound on in a little.

Given your question... Taly is a pretty strong read but... good god Vettrock has been scummy since... oh god. Post 2? Post 3?

Vote: Vettrock

GreyICE had voted both Taly and Vettrock before this point. (Taly vote is included in the quoted posts).
I agree on Taly but suggest that the things we're both seeing could be newb (alignment unknown) where Vettrock looks more scum.
GreyICE agrees with me and switches back to Vettrock again.

I don't claim to be responsible for the Vettrock lynch. What I do claim is making a point that caused GreyICE to focus on Vettrock over Taly. Scum would have to be pretty crazy to do that.

This change in direction from GreyICE, and in particular how easy it was to convince him to switch, bothered me and I ended up not voting Vettrock myself. More on why it bothered me later, that fits in with a different train of thought.

[davesaz]

It's a work day. Longer post in progress on my comp. The only ongoing unexplained item is GreyICE. His reply is unrelated to my concern. Scumread on Talah is your assumption -- my opinion is in flux though attacking me -> possible scum is part of reaction test. God reply on mobile is painful...

[davesaz]

2)

Why didn't you see my vote on Kaboose as a pressure vote?
- since you came in afterward and simply laid suspicion and said it was "for pressure" later

This interaction?

Spoiler: stuff

talah please stop being useless with your vote and make a case on me or make a case on someone else and put your vote there

Ehhh - I never promised to make a case on you, my vote's on you because

I'm yet to

I was yet to see anything particularly useful or townish from you. I will admit I'm getting pretty bored with my vote here but your obstinance in wanting my vote off you is making me want to persist.

Still - I can see a bit of motivation with your voting. It's not as random as it seems.

UNVOTE: ChriVi

You know what - my next line under that unvote was a vote for NJAC. But then I look at the gamestate and both you and Kaboose have just unvoted him on the slightest twinges of pressure and I'm liking ploben's moxy. I also like the wagon composition, and it's getting late in the day. Well maybe I have some misgivings about oddmusic, but still.

VOTE: Kaboose

My 334 was not suggesting we should just go ahead and do it(although we should just go ahead and do it because as far as I'm concerned he keeps lying to us with his "i'm getting to it now" and because he's been useless imo) but it was more of a question as to why they would want to be closer to deadline to figure out the lynch. It felt like stalling to me, and it also makes me so angry when a game gets close to deadline and someone gets to L-1 and then that someone claims something that causes everyone to second guess everything so unvotes start happening and then scum know even more before we learn anything if it's a town L-1 claim. That's why I asked about them wanting to use the entire deadline.

It shouldn't be looked at as "We are lynching someone at this time" because that's just as bad an a misinformed lynch to put a deadline on it. I feel a more town way of thinking is "lynch when you have a good lynch"

NJAC is a good lynch to me.

Is it scummy to support a lynch? Because you're telling me it is.

UNVOTE: NJAC

Ploben why am I scum?

What happened between these two posts?

Ploben why am I scum?

I have a better question for you: why are you town? Can you point to legitimate scum hunting?

UNVOTE: NJAC

Ploben why am I scum?

I didn't like

Kaboose

's wagon initially and then comes this.

@Kaboose

Why did you feel the need to unvote here?

I just asked him the same question. What don't you like about Kaboose?

Ploben why am I scum?

I have a better question for you: why are you town? Can you point to legitimate scum hunting?

My goodness. I hope you have a good follow-up to this question.

Do you find anyone scummy apart from Kaboose, based on your re-evaluation?

I'm going to need to re-read and evaluate.

The question does have a point.

My "better question, why are you town" was a reply to Kaboose's question to Ploben. Your interaction with Kaboose didn't factor into the discussion. I didn't know, or care, that you were pursuing the same angle. That part of the discussion wasn't "loaded into memory". Nor did I care that Nether was involved. I was replying to a specific post, in the flow of my (busy) day, and had taken no special notice of what else was going on. That's one of the ways I scum hunt, and you don't get to judge me on whether it's a good way or not. You hunt scum your way, I'll hunt mine.

[davesaz]

Bad town.

What exactly makes you thinking they're bad town and not lurking scum?

Dammit, quit asking the questions I want to ask. Someone will mistakenly think we're connected.

[davesaz]

-Viomi.
-I dont feel like their motives are scum motivated.
-If they're scum they'll be found out by PoE

Lack of scum does not necessarily mean town. Are there any town motivated actions you can point to?

[davesaz]

Kaboose, you're a couple of pivots behind. I've moved on from the original theory of "Odd+Kaboose as scum" to either "Odd scum+someone bussing" or "2 scum on town Odd wagon".
Pisskop is my current vote as most likely to be scum, either with Odd or with another scum on Odd's wagon.

The reaction test was for who might buy you (or me) as scum even though the original logic was bad.

[davesaz]

I'm not quite sure what to make of your first point. Maybe you're having trouble following along.

Grey makes a comment about fearful scum. I get painted as said fearful scum because I was "afraid to commit to a wagon". I point out that a) I'm anything but fearful today and b) no reason for scum to be fearful before the flip. How does that have anything to do with whether fearfulness is the correct diagnosis for the no-kill? How does the possibility that scum just screwed up and forgot to send a kill order have any relevance to a bogus case on me being fearful, or on my response that such a case is patently absurd?

Secondly, in that case, scum screws up sending the kill, and town assumes that scum were afk -- means that town got it right. Is there a subliminal message here, that town has it right this game too? How would you know that, unless you're scum? Or is the subliminal message that town has it wrong this time and it was a time issue? In which case, you're scum again?

Next, your "point" against vettrock. Did you actually give reasoning which shows depth of thought and trying to figure out the game? I'm having a little problem with finding anything deep you have posted. TBH I had trouble reading your posts and in general. Care to explain where the depth is, in case I just missed it?

[davesaz]

davesaz (do i have to bold this?) you still avoided my question about why you voting me at ehn end of the day does not equal doing nothing. you anwered the other questions fairly methodically, if you could answer the ones you missed that would also be appreciated.

My vote: Post 592 Fri Mar 20, 2015 8:16 am
My last post of the day: Post 648 Sat Mar 21, 2015 1:03 pm
End of day: post 663 Sat Mar 21, 2015 9:29 pm

My previous vote was not at the end of the day. I had a choice between vote odd, vote vett, do nothing. I did nothing (in terms of voting) for about 36 hours, 8 of which was between my last post and end of day. I

explicitly chose not to change my vote

. Your question was not very smart, but I allowed you time to realize it yourself.

[davesaz]

Also good job avoiding the last part of my post which was what I wanted to focus on.

I'm not discussing my GreyICE read, for a very good reason which involves people not asking about it. I can say that most people, possibly all, are wrong about what my read is.

[davesaz]

Yo're still voting for town.
. Fix that.

Prove it by finding scum, and I'll think about it.

In the meantime, you're the one voting for town.

[davesaz]

I'm not sure what you want.

I was, and still am, wary of GreyICE. He could be scum. I never like it when people appease me, and he's done it like 3 times already.

[davesaz]

There, I pissed away any chance to catch him trying to continue to appease me, if he's scum. Hope you're satisfied.

Now let's solve the game folks. At least one scum remaining on Odd's wagon.
The other scum could be on either wagon. If the 3rd scum is on Vettrock's wagon, it will likely be someone trying to look super townie, to make the most of the bus credit.
Another good place to look is someone attacking me. If you're town then you really should be recognizing that I'm driving here.
Specifically Pisskop, if you're town then the OMGUS is going to get you lynched.

[davesaz]

I expected town to have a little discussion about the relative merits of the cases. Yes, I cast doubt on Taly because I had a legitimate doubt. I thought Vettrock was scummy and asked a question, compare how scummy these two players are. I didn't expect an immediate switch.

Repeating my previous question, how would it be good play for scum me redirect a forceful player like GreyICE onto my partner when it looked like lynching Taly would be easy? That, by itself, should clear me. Which is good since I am town.

Town should not be wasting energy on me. Let's catch scum together. For those town not wasting energy on me, pay attention to the people who continue this behavior.

[davesaz]

Where do you get the idea that I think town have to disagree to be town? I have specific meta on a specific player. That player's reaction to the meta could be totally sincere, or it could be manipulative. If he's scum but I buy it as sincere, there's a very good chance that town loses, because he'll take me to lylo and I'll help him win. If he's town and I take it as manipulative, worst case we end up in lylo and I help scum win by voting him. So I'm playing it soft right now, and trying to use other behavior and associatives to sort him while telling my fellow townies to be wary.

My vote is on Pisskop. I'm not even pursuing GreyICE as scum right now. He's a little bit scummy, which means I'm not convinced he's town.

Why is this even a question at this time?

If I were scum trying to paint town GreyICE as scummy, don't you think voting him would be a good idea?

Your vote, last I checked, was inexplicably on me. I'm as close as can be, without an actual flip, confirmed town.

• The whole point of your question is that I told GreyICE to switch to Vettrock. Scum would be absolutely crazy to do that when Taly would have been easy to lynch.
  
• Scum me could easily vote Odd and save Vettrock. Without Vettrock's lynch it might be suspicious but it's not the obvscum that people make it out to be.
  
• Scum me could easily vote Vettrock, point to my post telling Grey it was a better idea, and get mega town points on the flip.

I know people hate self meta, but check the very first game on my wiki page. It's a newbie where I had doubts on an assertive player, failed to act on those doubts, and lost as town.

[davesaz]

I've said truthfully what I did. I literally did exactly what I said -- looked at the situation and dared scum to try to change things.
If you don't believe me then so be it. A flip will prove you wrong.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, I've posted a real case based on what someone actually posted, not based on 8 hours of silence. Where is everyone?

[davesaz]

Voted someone you didn't have a scumread on. Maybe goading a partner to be active?
Dropped it like a hot potato at 2 votes after a 3rd player acts like he's going to join in.
Vote that player, who was a scum read before but you didn't vote him then.

After the flip

, claim you started the Vettrock wagon, and by extension that you're somehow responsible for it.

There are 4 points to my case on Pisskop. The most important one is point 3, voting Odd only when the wagon on Vettrock got hot, when Odd was a scumread before and Vettrock was not. You're selectively focusing on point 4, which is the attempt at a coverup. Yes, that's an important part of the case, but it's icing compare to the sequence of points 1-3.

[davesaz]

I was asking a question because I didn't understand your case and now your using that to call me scum with piss wow. You spent most of that post observing how quickly piss moved off vett so that's what I assumed you were emphasizing (plus you underlined and separated the last point).

Actually I still don't understand it. Jumping off of vett I can agree is of interest, but why is voting odd in particular any different than from just falling off?

You're misinterpreting part of that post, but it's a reasonable misunderstanding.

Voted someone you didn't have a scumread on. Maybe goading a partner to be active?
Dropped it like a hot potato at 2 votes after a 3rd player acts like he's going to join in.
Vote that player, who was a scum read before but you didn't vote him then.

After the flip

, claim you started the Vettrock wagon, and by extension that you're somehow responsible for it.

There are 4 points to my case on Pisskop. The most important one is point 3, voting Odd only when the wagon on Vettrock got hot, when Odd was a scumread before and Vettrock was not. You're selectively focusing on point 4, which is the attempt at a coverup. Yes, that's an important part of the case, but it's icing compare to the sequence of points 1-3.

Rephrasing last paragraph. The way it was written made it sound like I'm accusing you of the coverup because I left out a referant, but that's not what it actually means.

There are 4 points to my case on Pisskop. The most important one is point 3, voting Odd only when the wagon on Vettrock got hot, when Odd was a scumread before and Vettrock was not. Point 4 was Pisskop's attempt at a coverup today.

You're selectively focusing on point 4. Yes, that's an important part of the case, but it's icing compare to the sequence of points 1-3.

@Pisskop, your vote on me is the OMGUS. I did say that people attacking me are most likely to be scum. That has included Honey Bee along the way, but I'm feeling more town vibes from the attempt to work with me on this. You on the other hand are missing out on the opportunity to identify someone who actually has a nonzero chance of being scum as your new target.

[davesaz]

Hmm, I didn't notice this the first time, but 775 has another element that I don't understand.

Scum caught a break when I unvoted, and they'll be amoung those pushing this angle at me.

Which unvote is this, and how exactly did scum catch a break? Last I checked scum had lost one of their number and failed to kill, no breaks in sight.

[davesaz]

TBH, I don't understand your case. Can you skip all the crap and just say what your reasons are? As succinctly as possible please?

I'm not going to believe you are town unless you make a case on someone else, given I'm town myself.
You might feel the same way, but I was there first. Either you blink or one of us hangs.

[davesaz]

Still not seeing the case summary, which I'd be quite happy to respond to.

Also not seeing any attempt to rebut, even in the face of a L-1. Nor any refresh on the reasons on historical reads.

[davesaz]

I was kinda hoping for a list like the one I provided. Is that even trimmed down from the original post?

[davesaz]

You're voting me for scumhunting. Cute.

My question: "vettrock, Kaboose: Nice theory discussion. Have you seen enough to get some reads going?"

Yes, that's how I scumhunt. The implication of this question is that the players don't have reads. I can't call it scummy, especially in the case of Vettrock at that point, because he hasn't said anything of substance. See Open 581 for a great example of someone pushing me over this style, but you can find it in pretty much any of my games.

My question to Kahoose: "I have a better question for you: why are you town? Can you point to legitimate scum hunting?" in reply to a question " in reply to his "Ploben why am I scum?".

Another example of how I scumhunt. Kaboose has posts but not any legit scumhunting. Maybe I missed it, so I ask him to point it out. That's town mindset -- scum mindset might just catch the wagon.

I'll pause there to allow you the chance to make a popping sound, if you really are town. I can do this point by point, every single thing you're quoting and saying is my scumhunting style and I've already responded to a lot of it when other people asked questions about it.

[davesaz]

Interesting. This will need more thought.

[davesaz]

you still haven't explained what the purpose of voting me late day 1 was.

My, you're really obtuse, aren't you. I stated why, in the post where I voted you.

I am reading the thread, and

you're voting oddmusic solely because he's the leading wagon and didn't answer your question

.

[davesaz]

You never did respond satisfactorily to the statement that I made.
In that same post 592 I quoted

everything

you had previously said about Odd.
What I hilighted stands, as of that point in time. Nothing you can say later can change the fact that you had lied about you having stated a reason to vote him before that point.

But once again, why is this significant? How is it even a topic that is worth spending time on? I'm proven town, by the simple fact that I didn't save Vettrock or bus him to get cred. It would make sense to scum read me if Vettrock had flipped town, if (and only if) Oddmusic later flipped scum.

I repeat once again, going after me is a waste of time. Let's lynch scum together.

[davesaz]

And your point would be?

[davesaz]

EBWOP - was replying to 1024, didn't notice there was another page.

I didn't give a rat's ass what your interaction with Kaboose was. I was focusing on

Ploben's interaction with Kaboose

.
I didn't even notice your contribution to it.

[davesaz]

My case on you yesterday was that you did not have a reason for voting Odd. I still believe that I proved this in 592.
Nothing you can say will ever change my mind on 592.
My read might (and did) change

after

that point, but

at that point in time

you were scum.

I didn't even pay attention to your interaction with Kaboose. I read Kaboose's post (replying to Ploben) and responded to it. I treated that post in a total vacuum. I was not thinking about whether there were other people interacting with Kaboose. I'm pretty sure I looked at Kaboose's post, dual-iso'd him and Ploben, returned from the dual-iso, and posted my followup. I'm very sure I didn't look at anything else. That's what I do when I have a 5 minute window of opportunity. Some days that's what my life gives me. I multi-task on a continuous basis -- tonight I happen to not be doing anything else but it's a rare exception.

Spoiler: background on "truth"

I anticipate there might be a question on how I'd know I did that. I have a "semi-photographic" memory. If I'm actually paying attention, I remember things. I remember posting 592 and I remember posting my "better yet" question to Kaboose. If I'm not paying attention, such as when in skimming mode, I know "something" passed by my eyes but may not be able to remember exactly what. Occasionally I leave myself notes in a thread, when I know it's something the memory "recording" didn't pick up.

Further anticipating the "yeah, self meta, tl/dr". Another thing you should know about me. When I talk about RL events, I

never

lie. When I'm scum, I obviously lie about my role, and about who I'm scumreading and why. But I'm absolutely truthful when I give an account of what I actually did. If I'm not sure, I don't say anything at all, or I encircle it with "I think" or "to the best of my recollection". If I give it as an absolute truth, it's true -- or at least I think it's true, I've been known to be wrong but that's not a lie. Feel free to search my posts for the word "literal".

[davesaz]

I agree with Nether on the threatened self-hammer. Acting town in a little way like that doesn't make someone town.
VCA and the how of the votes led me to pisskop, but the lack of meaningful town motivated activity is what's keeping me there.

@Honey Bee & Talah: I don't find it easy to discard logic. But I am open to being convinced. If Kaboose is scum, who's the other?

[davesaz]

My focus has been elsewhere, so my Kaboose opinion is out of date. I'll have to refresh first.

An association isn't strictly necessary, just a 2nd scum read would be adequate. Though TBH I'd have trouble stating a 2nd strongest scumread right now. Too many people triggered one of my tells, and they can't all be scum, so that will take analysis too.

[davesaz]

Scumhunt.

[davesaz]

Umm, I posted it in 774.

You're the one with nothing more than fairy dust.

[davesaz]

The case is that you took credit for starting Vettrock's wagon, and by extension for his lynch, when you were the one who started the counter wagon.

Voted for Vettrock when he was never a scum read. (establish distance)
Switch right off when others start to vote him. (mustn't let partner get lynched)
The reason you voted Oddmusic was for "warming up" to Vettrock. (chainsaw)

After the flip, tried to use that lonely vote, on someone who wasn't even a scum read, as evidence you were scum reading him. (you weren't)
Claiming you started the wagon (technically true) and therefore are responsible for the lynch (uh, no, you're responsible for the counter)

All those things in parenthesis are scumtells.
Your attack on me is an OMGUS, that you didn't even think up until after I voted you. That's another scumtell.

Regarding your "point" against me, I directly addressed the "weird interactions with Vettrock", which you claim I've ignored. I was scum reading him -- I specifically suggested to GreyICE to go after him. If I'm scum why would I direct someone else toward my partner? That isn't something that any scum do. If scum want to bus their partner, they bus themselves, not by proxy. The "weirdness" was that I got suspicious of the other people who were voting him, because some of those interactions were too easy so they looked like potential scum setting up to bus.

Now, I don't really believe (yet) that you're town who got caught leaning the wrong way, but let's suppose you are, for argument's sake. Did you make an actual case on anyone else?

Anyone who can look at the content of what I've posted today and think it's anything other than town automatically goes in my scum pile. If you want out of the tunnel, I've made it really clear what you'll have to do.

[davesaz]

I am voting the scum, yw.

Good luck with convincing anyone else.

[davesaz]

I do take note that you have no rebuttal to my case. Maybe enough will take note that we don't have to wait out the deadline.

[davesaz]

@pisskop: Let's explore that Odd read a little. Were you applying a personal scumtell, that is to say something that you look for and consider someone scum if they post it?

To give an example, being upset that nobody votes them in RVS might be an example of this class of scumtell.

[davesaz]

So you can't point to something specific in Odd's posts that caused your scumread?

[davesaz]

Condolences to GreyICE.

I hope we get some replacements soon. We need those slots to make progress beyond the crickets chirping stage.

[davesaz]

Oh good, discussion. Please refresh my memory on what you think of pisskop.

[davesaz]

@Talah: Maybe you missed this, or failed to completely understand it.

Kaboose logic required Oddmusic to be scum, with the thought being that he wouldn't want to vote either one. But this is flawed -- scum in Kaboose's position (or mine) facing wagons on both their buddies absolutely should bus (and forcefully) to guarantee they look town for essentially hammering.

[davesaz]

My focus has been elsewhere, so my Kaboose opinion is out of date. I'll have to refresh first.

I would like to hear about this before a replacement comes in if I may please.

also

@mod: Can we have an extension once both slots are filled?

Medium strength town. D1 scum don't want to eliminate inactives because having inactives makes it easier to hide, gives them free mislynch opportunities later when they need them, and are great to have around at the end of the game. Scum want to make a case on the strongest town they can convince others to vote.

[davesaz]

Not only has he done this before, but he has done this on the exact same player.

Meaning what?

[davesaz]

Where am I doing that?

[davesaz]

My focus has been elsewhere, so my Kaboose opinion is out of date. I'll have to refresh first.

I would like to hear about this before a replacement comes in if I may please.

also

@mod: Can we have an extension once both slots are filled?

Medium strength town. D1 scum don't want to eliminate inactives because having inactives makes it easier to hide, gives them free mislynch opportunities later when they need them, and are great to have around at the end of the game. Scum want to make a case on the strongest town they can convince others to vote.

Not only has he done this before, but he has done this on the exact same player.

I asked where have I done that, and you just requoted this same post.

Maybe I asked the wrong question. What is "this"? What is it I've done before, and where did I do it before? Because I really have no idea what you're talking about or why you're posting it.

[davesaz]

Would he be bad enough scum to fail to bus when needed? That's a scum 101 play.

[davesaz]

When it doesn't change the outcome, yes. Plurality lynch is different than majority in that respect. In majority lynch, the L-2 through hammer slots can be touchy for scum, but in plurality with tied wagons, the extra vote is more like a post-hammer. It may get questioned but the answer is easier.

[davesaz]

As scum and if Oddmusic is town, Kaboose could have voted Oddmusic and it would be relatively safe until a later scum flip. People don't often question the hammer in cases where the hammerer had previously had a scumread. That's more the reason I doubt Kaboose.

@pisskop: If you're town, pick someone other than me to scumread and you still might be able to convince me. And if you still get lynched, town is better off with that than they are with OMGUS attack the logical guy.

Pedit2: Don't refer to other games.

[davesaz]

Maybe we just have different meanings for "late day".

I consider "late" to be the last

8-12 hours

. Please re-evaluate with that in mind.

[davesaz]

Maybe we just have different meanings for "late day".

I consider "late" to be the last

8-12 hours

. Please re-evaluate with that in mind.

I consider "late" to be

within 1 or so prod-dodges from a player to the end of the day.

Most sane poeople would think that as well, and your opinion, actually, does not determine the objectivity of "late in the day".

No re-evaluation is required. Late in the day you decided to not make a choice between vettrock and oddmusic and instead did *something else*. The fact that you characterise it as "nothing", equally does not make it nothing. What it was, was laying a vote on a player who wasn't up for lynch, and which had no purpose whatsoever. As evidenced by the fact that you didn't follow it up until I repeatedly brought it up.

I'll note that it had a fantastic purpose if odd flipped town.

When I say something about RL, it is always true. Late means right at the last minute for me, period. My last action of the day was an explicit decision not to change my vote from you to someone else. Voting you was the next to last action. That's a simple fact, and you really need to evaluate me according to that. Failing to do so is one reason I can't townread you.

VOTE: talah

[davesaz]

Now, any late action (or inaction) I take today will be after this point.

[davesaz]

If it's more than a few hours before deadline, there may be another "next to last" point established.

[davesaz]

I'm angry, not passive. I don't like being called a liar, even indirectly, and there is ample evidence in my record to prove that. I'm even on record saying that this approach to life may get me into trouble when I roll scum. But this game is not the game I get to test that.

Y'all are not voting my scumread, and I'm going to be really upset if he ends up winning as scum.

I don't know about ChriVi and we learn next to nothing by lynching them. I think Kaboose is more likely town than scum.

[davesaz]

Logic still says Kaboose is more likely to be town than scum. I realize that I'm making somewhat of an assumption that Kaboose would play well / optimally as scum, but I'm not willing to easily believe he'd play poorly.

I don't see movement from talah that I would expect to see from town. This is still scummy, but weak.

I'm going to be very upset if pisskop is scum and gets away with it. The tell that I'm scumreading him on is very reliable.

ChriVi's relatively low activity means their lynch is less informative for town than it might be. But I'm going to play a hunch that this pattern matches their scum game, which I saw firsthand in the game I modded. It's possible I could be wrong, but I feel pretty strongly that this is better than a Kaboose lynch, if just barely.

VOTE: ChriVi

[davesaz]

What would really help me from you to get a read if you're town, is for you to stop beating around the bush and start answering questions sincerely and consistently. And to provide answers to the questions I'm asking. I think that this kind of down to earth no bullshit attitude is what makes for a strong town and if I find myself not getting that from you, but rather getting "clever" reaction tests and evasion / delaying responses then I'm probably going to be on your arse until one of us is dead. If I ask why one standard applies to you and another standard applies to someone else then I expect you to see that as something legitimate and worth addressing.

Fair point but I don't know what you think I've answered badly. The only thing you've focused on recently is why I voted you near the end of D1, which is immaterial. BTW I gave a reason in the post I voted -- more below. What is material is that I didn't vote either of the other wagons. Because I wanted to create the environment where scum could save their partner, if one of the two was scum. To get something that I could read with logic. Need I go on? I have said this exact thing before. Well, probably different words but same idea.

In any case I see you're voting ChriVi now after ChriVi has just voted your preferred lynch for today. You don't mention any suspicion of that in your reason for voting...:

ChriVi's relatively low activity means their lynch is less informative for town than it might be. But I'm going to play a hunch that this pattern matches their scum game, which I saw firsthand in the game I modded. It's possible I could be wrong, but I feel pretty strongly that this is better than a Kaboose lynch, if just barely.

VOTE: ChriVi

...and I asked you specifically to give an opinion on ChriVi in my 1204 which you completely ignored:

davesaz contribute something please. What do you think of ChriVi?

What about HB?

So you've done something today late day which is push the lynch off Kaboose and onto ChriVi and you've give a couple of reasons.

What I'd like to know is why you didn't also acknowledge ChriVi's vote on pisskop. What do you think about that?

At the point of 1204 I did not have an opinion on ChriVi. Beyond that, since you had given no evidence that anything I said would change your opinion (Aneninen calls this the "regardless of card") I had no interest in answering. There you go, brutally honest.

ChriVi's vote on pisskop did not change the game state. The two of us would not be enough and there was no indication that even one other person would be interested in that lynch. My vote needs to go somewhere else, and I posted exactly what I thought when I was voting.

The difference between my 592 and ChriVi's vote is that I had a pretty damn good reason for voting you. I asked you why you voted Oddmusic and the response you gave to that question was the opposite of what actually happened in the thread.

[davesaz]

BTW, assuming I didn't miss anything current gamestate is Kaboose, ChriVi, Taly all with 3, and first reached 3 in that order. I don't know if ChriVi moves ahead of Kaboose when going to 4 and stays ahead when going back to 3, or if the lynch reverts to Kaboose as the earliest one to reach 3 and not leave that level. Probably ChriVi as it makes the most sense, but doesn't hurt to know for sure.

Of these 3, I would put both ChriVi and Taly as more likely to be scum than Kaboose.

@Mod clarification of how this tie is resolved? And a VC please?

[davesaz]

Interesting that ChriVi has not taken action to save themselves, given their vote is hanging. Time zones in action? Two scum in the tied wagons? Planning to divert at the last second?

[davesaz]

Roughly 25 hours, and it seems that talah's primary posting time is during my night. With the current deadline, I get online with about 2 hours to go tomorrow morning.

[davesaz]

Interesting that ChriVi has not taken action to save themselves, given their vote is hanging. Time zones in action? Two scum in the tied wagons? Planning to divert at the last second?

They don't need to yet because

Kaboose

will get lynched if nothing will change.

That gets to the crux of the question to mod. Going to 4 could put ChriVi at the head of the line for 3, or the order of arriving at 3 might not change.

[davesaz]

There are multiple back/forth's going on, clarify please.

[davesaz]

I thought taly could be scum based on a reread back when GreyICE entered the game, but there were some indications that it's merely awkwardness.
That can be a very hard call to make, as one way of playing scum is to be awkward on purpose.

[davesaz]

That's just great. Your unvote changed it back to Kaboose.

[davesaz]

The post you're responding to says Kaboose is a terrible wagon.
I'm saying Kaboose is a terrible wagon.
GreyICE said Kaboose is a terrible wagon.

You're voting Kaboose. Where did the relevance of ChriVi's vote come into play?

[davesaz]

I will definitely be here at deadline. That's tomorrow morning my time, and I really need to go to sleep now.

[davesaz]

So, pisskop just put ChriVi back in the lead and took taly off the table.

[davesaz]

How can Kaboose possibly be scum is more the question. There is no way I can see scum!Kaboose passing up a chance to vote town!Oddmusic, to save Vettrock. Not when doing so would leave no associations to track.

Which leaves my original theory of scum!Kaboose can't choose which partner to bus. But I really don't see both remaining scum replacing out as being a very likely outcome. Most people would kill to get a scum role. Of course it's possible that they both randomly have a RL reason. Secondly, I don't see good scum in that position passing up the opportunity to be strong townread by bussing one and then becoming nearly confirmed town if the other flips too.

[davesaz]

Umm, is there a previous reference in this game to a Kaboose friends and enemies game?

Why did it take so long to post an actual case on Kaboose? You could have posted that very post days ago and it might have changed things.

Pedit: because I'm a logical person. I'm very certain about the things I consider optimal play.

[davesaz]

@HB: Where I'm the "don't just tell me what you think but why you think it" type. If your reasons make sense than I trust both you and the reasons. If they don't make sense then I won't trust the read and will remain ambivalent toward you or think you're scum.

@Taly -- sorry I have a personality type you don't like. But it is my actual, RL personality.

All these flipflops are killing me. If it keeps up and I survive to tomorrow I won't be able to apply my analysis style.

[davesaz]

Offtopic question: Do any of you guys know MBTI or Enneagram?

Yes, I used MBTI in a leadership development class at work. Very strong I, very strong T.

[davesaz]

In case anyone gets the idea that's code of some sort. I means introverted (vs. E=Extraverted), T means thinking (vs. F=feeling).

[davesaz]

Once again, I don't remember seeing a reference to "that game" in "this game". I only have two F&E games to check, so please hold...

Pedit: everyone's here today after so many gaps. The above to HB

[davesaz]

Followup to HB -- what is "that thing"? Just so I'm clear what to scan for.

[davesaz]

Another followup -- compare me vs pisskop in this game to me vs. swag in that game.

[davesaz]

The tone, not so much substance.

Thank you for finally connecting the dots. Yes, Kaboose looks exactly like he did in that game. And it's plausible that he disappeared as a result of those dots being connected.

VOTE: Kaboose

[davesaz]

Note: This fits my logic theory for today as well. Good scum would do what I suggested as optimal play, but going for inactives when scum is not optimal. Having done not optimal play in the past suggests the possibility of not good scum. QED

Time's short, and I'm pretty sure we're still at ChriVi in the lead though my attention has been on processing this (unfortunately) late breaking info and not on keeping my mental VC updated.

[davesaz]

Um, senseless post is senseless.

[davesaz]

pedit @pisskop

My motivation seems crap to you because I was voting you most of the day.

If Kaboose didn't have meta of pushing for lurker lynches as scum I would never have switched. Given the meta, it's really obvious. If the meta had been stated directly instead of with a really generic "he's done this before" with no referents on what he or this meant, it only would have taken an hour or two real time from that point to agree.

You also seem to have a hard time working with someone who places a higher weight on assuming people would play well. If a good scum should do something, I expect the actual scum to do it. I don't expect them to play badly. I said this myself right in my first post of D2 -- unless scum did something suboptimal.

Speaking of playing well (or not) don't know what to think of the NK. Seems like a bad play unless the last scum is someone who Grib would nail easily.

[davesaz]

Oh, I found it really fast. My comment was just saying that "Kaboose tried to lynch lurkers before" is much more straightforward because it removes all ambiguity.

We have pisskop claiming "hammer" on the Kaboose wagon which was unclear right up to the last hours, same as he claimed to have started the vettrock wagon the day before. But I'm worried that's confbias talking. I'd be the logical NK if it were him, but then we get info a WIFOM loop on whether I'd know that and be armed, would scum know that and skip me, etc.

I don't like how Netherspite opened up with "well, I'm the obvious lynch here". I never have had a firm read on him.

[davesaz]

Looks to be another rough day at work. I do have time to jot down my notes on all the players. I think the last scum is clearly among 4 players.

Town: Honey Bee, talah

likely town: Ploben, taly

Less likely to be town: netherspite

Possible scum:

ChriVi -- Abrasive attitude could be an attempt to hide scummy behavior behind bad. Had weird positions pretty much all the time. To Do: review vote pattern and interaction pattern

Probable scum:
GreyICE -- the whole vettrock thing could have been scum getting in on the ground floor of a lynch that was likely to happen. Not on Kaboose. To Do: review interactions with the Kaboose wagon

Pisskop -- The claim to have started vettrock wagon was proven to be stretching the truth at best, and it's a position scum might take. Was primarily responsible for the oddmusic wagon which is now proven to have been the CW. As scum "hammering" Kaboose would definitely be the right move once it became obvious too few people would accept the CW. To Do: look at everything else to see if I'm just confbiasing

I really think my fellow townies need to take a hard look at GreyICE and Pisskop. I'd be willing to settle for ChriVi. I'd listen to a strong case on Netherspite.

[davesaz]

Sorry Dave, but I'm not sold on Ploben being town at all at the moment. Where has he even been since D1?

The majority of that read is D1 with a little D2. The D1 analysis makes it unlikely he'd be in a team with the flipped scum.
I know I haven't provided the quotes / links, a bit busy at work. We do have plenty of time.

[davesaz]

I still have Nether as 4th most likely to be scum, but will give

hammer intent

to move this along.

I would prefer Pisskop and ChriVi, in that order. I'm not convinced that GreyICE is town but don't see that lynch happening.

[davesaz]

Are you saying Netherspite is a mislynch? You started that wagon...

[davesaz]

@HB: Which is a sign that some of those players are failing rather dramatically at playing as town.
If the last scum is outside my set of candidates then they've played an awesome game.

@pisskop: If Nether really is town, then both of your scumreads are town. Which means if you're also town, you're the one who is failing this game.

[davesaz]

@HB: Don't tell me you're an idiot too.

@pisskop: Was that to me?

[davesaz]

I have reads and I'm very confident in them. Why is that bad town play? Even more, what about it makes me scum? Hint -- I'm not.

When my reads are wrong and someone convinces me of that, I change willingly. See: Kaboose yesterday. I misunderstood the post from HB, got a clarification, verified the meta, and acted accordingly. How is that not town?

[davesaz]

My Grey case was posted before, but I'll be happy to paraphrase. Grey entered the game with a fairly mysterious "Taly is obvscum" and a weak "Vettrock is bad". After being questioned on Taly he posted some explanation. I agreed with that explanation but countered that I didn't know if it indicated scum or newb, and asked what Grey thought about Vettrock. Instead of engaging in conversation on Vettrock, Grey immediately switched. At that point in time it was far from clear that Vettrock would be lynched. Scum could easily fake an early scumread on a partner to try to get town cred (in particular with me) and get stuck unable to get off that wagon later. And the mysterious obvscum read on Taly is also the type of thing that scum would try.

There is more, but I'm trying to split brain this post with a work phone call and work is winning.

I voted Kaboose because he specifically goes for lurkers as scum. If I had realized that was what HB was trying to say, I would have agreed with that within about 10 minutes of understanding the post. It was

really

easy to find.

[davesaz]

Order = most likely to be scum, next most likely to be scum. Not as in they should be lynched in this order -- why should that matter?

If nether is town, then pisskop's scum reads are both town. Since I'm his other scum read, and I'm town. It should not be necessary to spell this out.

Logic says a good scum player would do X. I am a good scum player. I did Y (which is not X). Therefore I'm not scum.

Yes, I actually do think and act that way in RL.

[davesaz]

Having the input from a flipped townie always helps.
If he's scum and gets lynched then game over.
Can't see any way that hurrying would be better than waiting.

[davesaz]

Ploben did very well. I kept saving my shot because I looked to be mislynch bait.