Open 899 - The Pizza Kids Coalition [Game Over]

[implosion]

Happy new year everyone

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I’m flying back from holiday stuff tomorrow and should be pretty around generally after that.

T3 townish.

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DragonEater has a certain aesthetic to his reasoning that reminds me of myself in a way, probably moreso in the past than now. The idea of viewing x thing as more/less likely to come from scum (i.e. reading 1 vs 2 people in an opening post) in such a way that really looks like splitting hairs unless you're the one making the claim. I think when I would post that way I probably tended to do it more as town than scum because it's a lot easier to naturally come up with a sort of hairbrained theory when you're genuinely thinking about the game. It's the kind of read I'd post in the first few pages and then go back and look at weeks later while rereading myself (as town) and genuinely have no idea how I came to the conclusion in the read. I think his first couple pages are fairly towny.

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This is not the point I'm making. In 46, you say that we should focus scumreads more than townreads because focusing townreads lets scum blend in. At the same time, you say Appearance is town and so far all he'd done was give out 2 unexplained TRs. If you think scum blends in by focusing on TRs, you don't also think that Appearance is town. You're claiming to have one philosophy on how to play the setup that contradicts your reads.

I don't like this post/line of logic. It feels less like a misrep (i actually don't like dragoneater calling it a misrep) and more like it's reductive, like if Dragoneater claims to have a particular philosophy that he mentioned then that philosophy doesn't necessarily underrun everything that he thinks. It's lacking in consideration imo as a reason to scumread dragoneater (and it does look like kyouko is scumreading dragoneater).

[implosion]

ssbm, elements, t3 and appearance are all provisional townreads for me

This is an interesting post, with me and Ydrasse having posted like once each at this point this is townreading everyone who has posted a fair amount except dragoneater and klick. I get townvibes from klick as well.

[implosion]

I keep thinking this game is 7 players

there's also a part of me that wants to call this post like, really hard town for being the kind of thing scum would be very unlikely to genuinely think (because they have a scumbuddy they're interacting with/are probably more self-conscious about stuff) and also extremely unlikely to come up with the idea of faking

[implosion]

I love how you say you used to say "this is more likely to come from town than scum" in the past, and immediately follow it with "I think this posting is more likely to come from town than scum" (not saying this is alignment indicative, just find it funny). As a note, yeah that's an early game read, not a lategame read.

i mean yeah i kind of realized i was doing this. the difference now is that i

think

i usually try to draw some concrete line of reasoning between the thing i'm analyzing and how i think someone would view the game as town or scum, 79 is a really good example because i have a very specific reason for thinking that post is extremely town, it's not just a hunch (and I'm not saying your reads are just hunches if you are town, but to me they sort of look the same as hunches without access to how you're actually thinking about the game, if that makes sense).

Also, what do you make of DV's post being the way it is?

This is a good question and I think the answer is that i'm not really sure and i should probably go to sleep.

[implosion]

today has been a lot busier than i anticipated with travel/prepping for a talk tomorrow, i will be around more tomorrow evening

[implosion]

Wild that less than 3 pages have happened since my last content.

I have mixed feelings about the "implosion is trying to look like town" angle. I both want to say that it's probably a personality/playstyle quirk and that of course I'm going to try to look like town in a setup that is about finding and being found as town (which is I guess every setup that I've played since stepping down as listmod >_>). I don't think the latter is really being fair to the argument but it is just an annoying accusation to have levied when idk, I think I do fundamentally play the game with wanting to appear town in mind as town because I just enjoy the game more when I am found as town, it's probably not even out of thinking it's the best way to win, it's just the way I automatically think about the game.

I think probably something that does exist is being seen there but it's probably something you'd see in pretty much any of my towngames and it's telling that I'm being townread by Ydrasse (who has played with me very recently and also i think a second time semi-recently) and scumread by dragoneater (who i think has never played with me) and deasvail (who i'm pretty sure i've played with but probably not in something like half a decade). Though it is possible Ydrasse is scum

[implosion]

i opened deas” iso to try and figure out what i disliked but looking at the posts now it really is just vibes at most

like i could nitpick but i’m shrugging now

This is a good post.

[implosion]

have you checked that to how implosion normally plays?

I haven't actively checked, but I've read a scum game of his before and everything he's posted so far is within his scum range and fits my mental model of scum!implo.

Sort of edit:
Took a while to find because apparently he hasn't played a lot this year, but I just skimmed his iso in a town game of his, and I don't feel the same overly-nuanced tone in that town game at all.

i mean it's completely true that i'm not out of my scumrange yet but also my scumrange is apparently lot better than i'd given it credit for given the last scumgame i played.

[implosion]

here is one example of me being weirdly way too nuanced in (probably) that game you were skimming the iso of. the beginning of the iso probably looks very different from my play here so far because i entered the game on like page 15 or something.

[implosion]

i'm going to stop talking about that now

i think Elements/Klick/Ydrasse/Dragoneater/T3 is a pretty good pool of town. Elements I think actually should just be locktown for that one post, it's like a soft townslip. ssbm might actually just be town for healing them because I don't really know what scum gets out of that in this gamestate. Someone was saying they felt they wanted to re-evaluate T3 but idk. I'll probably do that at some point but shrug. I guess this leaves DV and Appearance and I don't really get why DV is being townread. I think I get why some people have called Appearance town but don't really see it.

[implosion]

Regarding DV: I mentioned 69 as weird, I still don't really know how I feel about it in isolation, it's definitely a post scum can make but if he's scum it might imply something about his buddy when put in the context of the rest of the game. His read on me is a sensible thing to do as scum. Like there's nothing in his ISO that deconfirms him as town but I don't think he's done anything that he either couldn't or particularly wouldn't do as scum in this game.

[implosion]

A few of your posts before this point have given the impression of not having enough time for the game/being busy with other things. So I’m interested in why your play before this point would be representative of your usual gameplay to the point where people’s experience with you would be so relevant.

To me, it feels premature to conclude that certain people townread/scumread you because of their experience with you.

I mean, Ydrasse literally asked Dragoneater if he'd checked if what he was seeing wasn't just how I usually played. Honestly I'm mostly annoyed at the way Dragoneater is acting toward me. I have been busy with other things but my first spate of posting was me with a decent amount of time to look at/think about things iirc so it's probably fairly representative of my typical gameplay

[implosion]

I will also say DV is also a very good scum player in my mind and maybe I'm giving him a high bar but that might have been implanted out of nothing

[implosion]

But also I think the game as a whole has been looking plenty town, like I'm not in want of more people who look generally town, though i feel like that's the vast majority of d1s I play these days

[implosion]

Alright game solved for realsies

HEAL: Klick, Appearance, Dragon, Elements, DeasVail

Now I just lurk until DV and Klick figure out this is the correct solve and then we just convince two others.

The kind of rhetoric of this post is something I feel like I could write an essay about. In the last coalition game I played, I was scum and there was a player (Hero at Heart) who was repeatedly giving similar rhetoric of surety about their coalition (nb: both scum were in it). I think d1 in that game was somewhat easy for me to navigate probably in large part due to that kind of rhetoric, where certain people (myself included) were almost viewed as above scrutiny in a way that felt like it radiated out from Hero's reads. Granted, Hero actually did change his reads plenty of times iirc, but ultimately the town deferred to it with the only real objection coming from me (because i softly wanted my scumbuddy off the coalition).

In this case, I think this coalition is massively likely to have scum on it somewhere. And I don't think DragonEater has the same kind of rhetorical sway that Hero did in that game. But it really makes me not like the direction that this day is going right now.

It’s weird to me that you’d use the amount of time since we last played together to question the reliability of my read on you and then make an unsolicited comment on my scumplay (particularly since 5-10 years ago I was probably better known for strong town play than strong scum play).

The comment on scumplay is more a continuation of 155 than it is of 156

[implosion]

@implosion: Then what do you think of my post which was basically the same thing?

Your post is rhetorically very different and also I think your group has a much higher chance of being all town

[implosion]

HEAL: Elements
HEAL: DragonEater

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@implosion: Then what do you think of my post which was basically the same thing?

Your post is rhetorically very different and also I think your group has a much higher chance of being all town

To elaborate because on rereading your post this is probably very unclear: the rhetorical difference that concerns me is that DragonEater's post is more dismissive in a sense. He essentially is saying "this is the solve, deal with it" where you're trying to actively work with your townreads (which is not a concerning pattern of gamestate to me).

[implosion]

that's funny because i immediately know all the factors being referred to for me

[implosion]

@implosion: Then what do you think of my post which was basically the same thing?

Your post is rhetorically very different and also I think your group has a much higher chance of being all town

I am confused, am I missing something?

I'm not sure what the confusion is about? I elaborated in 169. If you mean about the group being all town, Dragoneater's group also had Appearance in it.

Which post do you want to locktown Elements for? The 7 players thing?

Yes.

I totally understand your annoyance if you are town, but you gotta realize I got to get the game moving and currently that's the only thread I can pull on, and I will abuse it as much as I can to move the game forward.

I'm not really impressed with your self meta and general reaction to my push. If you are town and want to help me sort you, can you answer these questions please:
Who do you think has acted in an actual scummy way or did things you can point out as scum-motivated, other than just not being out of their scumrange like DV?
What do you think of Kyo's recent posting?
What do you think about my interaction with Klick and our reads on each other? (I'm interested both in your thoughts about his read on me, and my read on him).

These questions aren't busywork btw, they will definitely help me sort you.

This response is making me question my read on you. It feels like scum trying not to look like they're tunneling/trying not to piss me off while still wanting to keep me in their scumreads. Particularly the first line, like, what do you mean I'm the only thread you can pull on, that's not even vaguely true. I also kind of don't believe you actually think these questions will help sort me. I think this makes a

lot

of sense as a ploy from scum who has already decided to just shove me in a bucket and move on until after the coalition phase is over, but who feels they can't say that out loud because they'll have to work with me when the coalition fails.

"Who do you think has acted in an actual scummy way or did things you can point out as scum-motivated" is a very bad question to ask me in general. This post is actually the first example this game ironically but there are plenty of games where I simply don't get any real scumreads d1. I usually mostly find town.

I mentioned I think kyouko healing just Elements is a weird thing to come from scum. Just in the sense of like, it's not an action that would really be contributing to her win condition because Elements isn't exactly a player controlling the conversation of the game, and in my mind kyouko is a generally good player. That argument sort of applies to if she's town as well but I think townies are more likely to just do weird shit sometimes. The post timing on 140/141 is something fascinating that I'm just noticing now, it might imply that she is actually reading the game but is being coy with thoughts because I'm not sure what you'd do for 20 minutes that would result in making post 141 otherwise, which would be townish if true because scum who is actually reading the game has not much reason to be coy in this setup unless she's scum with someone who is or who looked very likely to end up on coalition, e.g. you.

Reading through your/Klick's interactions nothing looks especially meaningful in either direction. The first interaction is interesting but kind of a commonplace kind of thing in mafia these days. Is there something in particular you think I should be seeing? The dynamic of you being the two people who are starting to actually push coalitions is something, in principle Klick doesn't have a ton of need to do that at the point he did as scum with you doing it for him (and you're quite unlikely to be scum together both pushing to both be on the coalition with each other).

[implosion]

@Klick: what's your current take on Elements?

i do think Ydrasse is being somewhat consistently townish.

I wish T3 would post more.

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@implosion: my confusion was because based on what your reads it didnt make sense to me that dragon eater’s group would be considered to be much more likely all town.

I was saying Klick's group was more likely to be all town (though it also had one fewer person which helps).

[implosion]

this gamestate is pretty demotivating for me. i'm pretty sure any seemingly-likely coalition right now is going to just fail and i'll be able to do things then but oy.

I think my ideal coalition right now would be me/elements/kyouko/ydrasse/(t3 or maybe klick)

Is there a reason for this in your opinion, or are you just putting it out there "in case" she's TMIing you and not "because you suspect" she's TMIing you? I reread over what Ydrasse posted about you originally and her talk about you with DE, and it seems like it's all been genuine

and that's like, *wildly* far away from what's being proposed. Which at least means if my reads are any good then it might be a 2 scum coalition.
yeah it's just "in case"

I'm kind of lost on "rhetorical" sway - is that just like "influence" over the game? I don't really know what rhetorical means outside of a "rhetorical" question
Are you trying to compare Dragon's sureness in his coalition to this HoH player's sureness? And saying Dragon doesn't have the same influence as HoH had?

Yes, influence over the gamestate. Basically he gives similar vibes to the other game and he doesn't have the same influence as Hero at Heart did in the other game really but he's becoming pretty widely townread (which is part of where that influence came from in the other game) and he's the main person strongly pushing his coalition.

[implosion]

I think the main concern I have re: implosion at the moment is that he clearly has a very logical approach to thinking about the game and his reads etc., but it seems to me that there are examples here where he departs from this to make (what I believe are) less logical points for the sake of convenience. 165 really struck me as something like this because the point about Klick's rhetoric being different should have been enough. Klick's group having "a much higher chance of being all town" shouldn't be a reason why Klick's post was less concerning? Especially since I believe implosion as town would be the kind of player that would expect there to be some amount of error in his early reads in need of re-evaluation.

I mean, I don't see why that isn't a reason for it to be less concerning? It's coalition. If Dragoneater pushes his coalition through to be accepted and it has scum, we've failed phase one. If Klick pushes his coalition through to be accepted and it does not have scum, we win the game. Of course I probably have some error in my reads but at that point you and Appearance were basically my soft PoE and you were both in Dragon's coalition, and he was pushing it in a way that implied a sort of incommensurate surety where it reminded me of the other game of someone pushing a very wrong coalition with a lot of bravado and getting burned. Klick's group had only one of my soft PoE, and it was only a group of 4 people so it's sort of less concerning for him to be pushing it all at once if he's still trying to figure out the fifth (that is, I'm less afraid of him stubbornly digging in his heels on an entire wrong coalition very early and just dooming us).

Can anybody here read Klick really well? DV? implo? Ydra? I'd like to know if you think Klick could be deepwolfing or nah

Nah, I think I've played some with him but don't remember his meta at all.

[implosion]

(nah as in nah i can't read him really well. I do think he's town though)

[implosion]

I think my ideal coalition right now would be me/elements/kyouko/ydrasse/(t3 or maybe klick)

I'd love to hear your reservations about DragonEater. You currently have a Heal vote on him

I forgot about that but also it's entirely symbolic/meaningless, votes don't do anything until you're healing 5 people. I laid my heals bc dragoneater had asked people to but it is strictly meaningless.


I explained my reservations in 207. I don't like his trajectory toward me as it's evolved. It feels like (to steal from dv) wanting to have his cake and eat it too.

If his suggested coalition gets passed and fails, I'll probably scrutinize him in more detail but right now it feels like I just don't have a ton of power in the game.

[implosion]

Still kinda demotivated. Partially for RL reasons but mostly in game.


There's a world where 361 is dragon + one of DV/Klick as scum and Dragon sees an excuse to try to replace the double-scum coalition that's been building with a single-scum coalition. That would also mirror my play in the scum coalition game I mentioned. In that sense that when the game was going well, I went a bit out of my way to try to get the other scum off of the coalition (when that plan failed, I had to bus them on the first lim).

I think if that is the case, it's not really actionable now (aside from just keeping the original coalition Dragon suggested rather than switching). Or rather it's not like, something that's going to make me want to lim one of those people if the coalition fails, more of a "if the game gets to final 5 and dragon + either klick or DV are alive, remember to look back at this".

fmpov a lot of all the current speculation coming from like klick and dragon (especially klick) is kind of blasé because yeah, I agree with the analysis that if I'm town the coalition is likely to fail and beyond that there's not really much to say >_>. I don't think there are any politically feasible coalitions that are likely to succeed right now. That said I am waning on my specific feeling of Dragon being scum. While 361 makes a lot of sense in the specific case I mentioned, outside of that it's kind of a thing that I wouldn't expect scum to do in the gamestate, it's a bit of a rocking-the-boat action to remove those two from the coalition and I think Dragon is probably mostly happy to ride the wave of the gamestate if he's scum, modulo needing to possibly dodge a double scum coalition.

[implosion]

implosion's lack of read of me is a big part of what's concerning me. town-him should probably be scumreading me here, and I think that's been the implication, but why the hesitation?

I don't know why this is the case? Why should I be hard scumreading you? Beyond that why would I be avoiding scumreading you if I were scum? It's not like I've been playing in a way that's conducive to building a coalition with you either way. Honestly I haven't really parsed your more recent posting much in terms of alignment so I should probably do that more.

[implosion]

also I do think that the scum strategy even if outside a potential all-town coalition would be to not rock the boat too much. It's in town's nature to become paranoid and second-guess.

Like you're putting in the extra effort into the nuance here that makes me believe you care

I can see this.

More specifically I think implosion is experienced enough to know that questionable/reductive reasoning isn't necessarily an indicator of scum and that DE (one of his townreads) is doing the same thing

? I'm experienced enough to know that literally nothing is "necessarily" an indicator of scum. I know bad logic has almost no correlation to scum in general. I think that specific form of bad logic probably has some correlation to scum. It's about the specific instance. What do you mean by Dragon doing the "same thing" and why should i be reading whatever thing from dragon exactly the same as I read this post from kyouko?

[implosion]

Dragon, I understand your frustration at me if you're town but tbh I'm just tired. Your play toward me has been tiring to deal with. If you are town I respect your play toward me but I hope you can understand how it's been really demotivating. I don't really have much interest in hard declaring who I think scum in the coalition is until after it fails. I'm not confident in my reads this game by and large. Hell, it's entirely possible the coalition is passing with like t3/kyouko as scum, it just seems far too easy.

Scum!implosion likes using valid points to push an agenda

Frankly I think town!implosion tries to push his own opinion here
I feel like implosion is trying to give little away

Idk. I'll be more engaged after the coalition fails, because at that point I'll have political capital (as dragoneater might bonk me for saying) or if it doesn't then I will have played this game optimally in the sense of effort put in for victory to come out. I feel like if I were scum here with someone on coalition I would have much more reason to effort since how I'm perceived would be a massive part of my team winning (since scum off coalition is positioned to win much better than scum on). Or if I were scum without my partner on coalition then obviously i'd need to do something >_>

It is definitely an accurate portrayal of part of my scumgame that I try to use valid points though I kind of go with the flow/try to emulate my town game more often than I really have a distinct agenda. But the validity of what I say is almost definitely not really correlated with my alignment.

i kinda feel like at this point, even demotivated town would want to get a coalition out there.

I'm pretty slow to vanity vote in most games and voting for a coalition of me/elements/ydrasse/klick/someone (which is where i'm at right now) is like an ultimate vanity vote lol

Since deadline is soon I'll help hammer something if someone on a coalition is refusing to vote, particularly if it has elements/ydrasse/klick

[implosion]

Basically if those three are in it then I'd at least feel better about d1/d2 hunting

It is possible Klick is deepwolfing, I think the method of consistent effort they're putting in here and the persistence to their approach to the phase is really rarely scum though. If they're scum they're playing very well

[implosion]

fmpov town!implo puts aside his pride and votes for a coalition, instead of what he's been doing rn

Tbh I missed that deadline is in less than a day until now but I will probably vote for something soon, probably after catching up

[implosion]

The accurate reason I'm town here is because I have high presence and interest and it shows through my posting

Yeah I tend to believe this

"this has been established already" doesn't sound very natural to me. like the wording feels different than Klick usually sounds.

This whole post feels like really bad logic reasons to think Klick is scum similar to the early points kyouko made on Dragoneater. I feel like that phrasing is a natural outcropping of Klick being somewhat of a town leader this game and that really nothing in this post sounds like there's any reason it should be scum indicative. If kyouko is town I guess she maybe just views this sort of logic differently from me, like it's not like this can't come from town.

I feel like Klick should be pretty universally townread and this as reasoning + dragon's reasoning which seems to amount to "well implo looks like he might be partnered to Klick and maybe Klick is deepwolfing" are just, bad imo.

[implosion]

My eyes are sort of starting to glaze over

I feel like this game is being fairly dominated by teaming ideas and that worries me. A lot of logic seems to hinge on who is a likely partner for me (granted not all of it, but a significant amount) and more generally on what teams would lead to the dynamic we have right now, and I tend to think that's something that's relatively gameable as scum. I'm sort of tired of giving the numbers rant but the odds of guessing the scumteam d1 are a priori 1/28, which is not good. I think it's fine to exclude particular scumteams people are worried about like me/kyouko/t3 but if the coalition fails then I think it's important to deprioritize that kind of viewing the game. I sort of vibe with DV's description of wanting the game to have more town-finding (though it doesn't specifically make me think DV is town).

[implosion]

It's sort of unclear to me what the actual viable coalitions are right now. I'd be fine with something with Klick but without DV but to Dragon it feels like they're a package deal

[implosion]

HEAL: Elements, Klick, Ydrasse, Dragon, Appearance

Split on whether I'd prefer Appearance or Deasvail in a void right now. I'd definitely vote for this with Appearance->Deasvail. If the version without Ydrasse is the prevailing preference then eh w/e probably

[implosion]

Hmmmm explain

i mean my ideal coalition would be that - appearance + me but that's clearly not viable and it's probably not a good idea anyway because if it failed i'd be immediately limmed.

i don't really know what else there is to explain. I have very mixed feelings on both of kyouko and T3 (in T3's case i think his posting has been kind of town but also there's just not enough of it/not enough content in it, i think i've explained kyouko) and i think excluding the three of us is a perfectly fine starting point given that people are suspicious of the 3 of us as possible teams and those teams become impossible if the coalition fails. I think out of the other 6, dv/appearance are broadly the least townish

[implosion]

i think if i were to pick my in this exact moment most likely coalition to pass it'd be me/klick/ydrasse/elements/(one of dragon or kyouko). or maybe both of dragon and kyouko but minus ydrasse. not sure, i'm tired and am going to sleep

[implosion]

I think the scum in the coalition was most likely in ydrasse/appearance/kyouko. I've come back around to Dragon is very probably just town. I think if we can get one scum flip we can potentially parlay it into a lot of information given how d1 went as well by looking at how people might have acted around possible double scum coalitions so I think we're in a pretty good spot given a failed coalition.

[implosion]

DragonEater's whole play reminds me of when I played scum with him.

I'm curious to hear about this (particularly since I think your slot is town) but I feel like at this point Dragon is town for roughly the same reasons as Klick. I think that there are details of his play that are unlikely to come from scum, for instance the previous page he looks genuinely invested/concerned in what the coalition is going to be in a way that I think would be challenging to fake

[implosion]

I think it's somewhat likely that there's 2 scum on especially given that none of Ydrasse/appearance/kyouko were the ones strongly in the driving seats so maybe they were sort of forced into it at the end. I think there's circumstantial reasons to think DV is fairly rarely scum here. The way the day ended is sort of weird if DV is scum, like there's like a world where some confluence of forces conspired to take DV-scum off the coalition but I think he'd have tried to exert some influence over things like I did in my coalition scum game. Like particularly if he's scum with someone who was a maybe on the coalition, I had a pretty strong instinct when I was scum to try to avoid having both on even if it meant being a bit conspicuous about it

If T3 is scum then, well idk, I guess he was somewhat townread early and maybe thought he was gonna get on coalition and then wound up coasting when he saw that he didn't need to? One thing is that I think this game will be much easier if T3 plays it.

[implosion]

We should be limming on coalition. I'm assuming either that's what gob meant or he's just misunderstanding the setup.

I do sort of like 613 from Ydrasse as a reaction but it's certainly fakeable

I don't have a ton of time/energy tonight but should be able to do some diving tomorrow

[implosion]

I'm going to try not to belabor the alt outing; I think it's sort of silly to complain about because effectively Dragon has been playing this game with a meta advantage of knowing that I've been talking about him the entire time without knowing it, which is irksome. It definitely does color some things. On the one hand, the fact that I compared this to Dragon's town game without knowing that it was Dragon's town game is perhaps a good sign that this is Dragon's town game.

On the other hand, it makes me revisit the caution I had early about how he was playing toward me. I feel my play this game is

markedly

different from my play in that other coalition game. I feel like there's no reason Dragon should be tunneling me as town when he has that game to compare this one to. I could imagine him being unsure but the, imo, thinly veiled dismissiveness with which he's approached me all game, even now after the coalition has failed, is angering. I don't really understand why there are multiple slots calling him scummy. gob is ostensibly calling things scummy with no reason and I don't agree those things ares scummy, and T3 popping in for that one sentence is meaningless to me without any context. I have a hard time divorcing the annoyance and anger against Dragon still saying that he's assuming I'm scum after the coalition I've said was going to fail all game (in fact, something that took that coalition and then

removed my top townread from it

) from his alignment. It's infuriating and I've been trying to ignore it but in light of this new info I'm really just pissed off.

[implosion]

How am i calling things scummy for no reason? My read is that Dragon is acting similar to his scum meta and Ive explained why.

Why the discredit? If dragon isnt mafia then yea im lookin in the wrong place but
1. i dont think i am
2. even if i am, dragon should be the one to reapond, not you. Especially because your whole read on my Dragon read is wrong.

That big post feels like a discredit and trying to bury me with a mountain of words. When the crux of the post is really weak (imo)

i mean you've said not that many things for dragon to respond to? And also uh, he did respond so I'm not sure what you want me to wait for before saying things? I see two concrete things you've about him: you said you think he's doing things that are outwardly townie to appear townie and you accused him of fencesitting on you. To the latter, town also fencesit sometimes and I don't find it convincing. To the former, a lot of things he's done simply look townie to me as I've described in my iso. And to the broader point of you thinking his play feels like it did with him as scum, his play here feels like it did when he was town to the point where I compared his play in this game to a different game where he was town where

i didn't even know he was in that other game

because he was on a secret alt. His play strongly reminded me of what I thought was someone else's play, and it turns out that it was actually his play where he was town.

so u are mad that you didn't know dragon knew your meta and ignored it?
but u still think he's town.
just checking to make sure i'm not misinterpreting.
tho, do u think ignoring meta is nai or would u say that doing so could be deliberate?

I think on the whole he's still town. I'm probably overweighting or overthinking the way he's playing toward me because the essence of his play is *very* similar to what I apparently know of his towngame, and I think the things I've thought were townie still apply. I just do not fucking understand why he's on my ass the way he has been and why he's basically forced me to the sidelines and is now refusing to rethink things after the coalition failed. I'm guessing he probably will eventually. I'm sort of mad about the meta thing but mostly I'm just mad that he's been approaching me with what feels like thinly veiled refusal to engage or rethink after an initial scumread that's turned into a tunnel

[implosion]

I wish DV were in instead of Klick tbh, would make this day a lot easier.

Does this give away that kyouko knew the coalition was going to fail anyway?

How does kyo know that the coalition still would have failed with me in it instead of Klick?

I know that klick is a consensus townread, but this still reveals a sort of thought process that I think comes from an informed perspective rather than uninformed

I don't really buy this line of reasoning, I think it's pretty normal to think that replacing someone with your biggest scumread would likely have also led to a failed coalition. Or that kyouko wasn't even thinking about whether that'd mean the coalition would have maybe succeeded. Like it's strictly a logical inconsistency but I think the thought process that would lead to it being posted is not unusual.

[implosion]

i think it's best for the game if i just fully don't engage with dragon.

tbh it's not that hard to misread u.
imho u are pretty much someone who i'd say is generally hard to read.

I accept that, it's just the way he's gone about it that's led to how I feel about everything.

Honestly it's also entirely possible that people are just like,

actively

bad at reading me right now. I was universally townread in coalition, I was pretty widely scumread or at least near the bottom of the pile in Toriel's patience, and now there's this game.

ISOing kyouko. There's something about her play that feels generally similar to her play in Toriel's patience (we were both town, but she did replace in late). I didn't really read her that closely in that game iirc, I think I was mostly relying on a read on her predecessor but looking a little at her play in both games her approach to argumentation and like, the cadence of her making points feels somewhat similar. I don't think it's tangible enough to really be the basis for a read though and I have definitely played with her other times but don't really remember them.

Her wanting both DV and Klick off of the coalition could be a way for her to try for a single scum coalition if she's scum with DV (which I don't think is particularly likely) or Klick (even less likely). Otherwise, if there's already scum on the coalition, her play seems sort of overly earnest for scum who would be fighting to join a coalition that already has scum. That includes the Elements slot even though it wound up off coalition. The only other slot is T3 who she could be scum with. I do like her post (452) on T3 though. I think the conclusion of "he might be scum with implo but is otherwise maybe townish but needs to do more stuff" is sort of an unnecessarily nuanced take for scum to make with either alignment from T3. If T3 is town and she's scum then she's doing this weird tact of tying these two widely scumread town slots together but also not committing to it that I don't think has a lot of utility as scum, and if they're both scum then the whole post is just weirdly conspicuous of a post for scum to make about their scumbuddy in that situation.

I feel like her play as a whole is pretty consistent with town who early on was trying to find bits of the game to stick on to (like the elements heal) and then got more time and started to kick into gear as the game was getting going. I do agree with Dragon that her Appearance vote is bad, it feels somewhat overjustified.

[implosion]

I still kind of like Ydrasse's early play toward me, coming off of Toriel's patience it feels like the right amount of skepticism toward scumreads of me for the right reasons. I also like her early self-analysis. 354 also feels particularly like a town post, i think it's awkward for scum out of nowhere to either put up a 5-town coalition or put up a coalition with their scumbuddy on it. Possibly less so if she's scum with elements or appearance since she said they'd be the first to go off the list in case she got added (which part of me thinks would be a bit conspicuous but from my recent experience playing scum in this setup you do feel like you have to be a bit conspicuous in that way sometimes. Or at least i did). 540 gives me mixed feelings as sort of the follow up to that post in that it is kind of an easy thing to do as scum to throw up your hands in the air, give a couple strong townreads, and then prepare for pretty much any form of the coalition failing. The coalition was 1 vote from passing so maybe this post is like, a wriggle as scum to try to get out of an all-town coalition she'd committed to without having to unvote it? the third paragraph in the post seems really hard to make in that case though so probably if she's scum there was already scum in that coalition.

I think the main thing I probably should be looking for in Ydrasse's play is a specific form of motivation/caring that she had in spades in Toriel's patience where it was like, abundantly clear that even though she was being thoroughly beaten down by the gamestate she still cared about the game. And she hasn't been beaten down by the gamestate in this game but she has been a little out of it and 540 gives me some worries on that front because making a big post like that and then doing nothing post coalition yet is kind of yikes in that department, like it would make sense as scum who is trying to wait a bit to see where the cards fall + who is running out of that kind of motivation to muster consistently.

[implosion]

I'm going to look at Appearance more tomorrow but suffice to say that i am internally assuming he is the alt Dragon said for like 4 different reasons (and I was somewhat thinking it before dragon said it as well) and it is coloring my view of that slot as well. If that is right then I think I'm not very good at reading him in general

[implosion]

I'm also kind of hoping Klick or like, maybe DV or kyouko (if they're town) will find me as town at some point because they're the only slots that it feels appealing to work with right now and I feel like i need help to make headway right now

[implosion]

implo dragons response to me wasnt actually a response. He just said “ur bad at reading me for 2317” totally disregarding the fact i was wolf with him not too long ago

"the response was bad" does not mean there was not a response and does not mean i should hold off on talking about dragon until he responds. because he'd already responded. Though i also disagree with the premise of needing to wait for someone to respond in the first place.

I would think it would seem more like I'm scum with Klick than DV if you're taking this viewpoint that I wanted them both off the coalition because I only wanted 1 scum (myself) on the coalition and wanted to make a show of getting my partner off of it. Especially given I've cased DV much harder and had leniency with Klick, considering that he may be snowed by DV. Also with me wanting to lim DV before Klick, that's like the classic "my partner could be scum with X (X is actually town), but isn't as scummy as X so I want to flip X first" I feel like this is an unlikely conclusion given the evidence, how did you come to it?

Both of those being unlikely pairings was just because I really don't think DV or Klick are scum, the "even less likely" was just bc I think Klick has lower scum equity among the two. I wasn't really thinking about how much sense you'd make as teams.

I don't know if I've ever correctly read you with any amount of confidence in my own work. I just don't get how to do it and I rely on sheeping TRs to read you usually. I don't think we've played that many games together but there've certainly been a fair few over the years

This is fair enough. I think we've played a fair number of games but they've been very far between. I also don't remember if I've seen you as scum before.

[implosion]

i just haven't... felt like posting. i've been procrastinating on doing a lot of things the past few days and this is an unfortunate victim of it.

i live vaguely in a world i think rn where it's like... gob... appearance...??? maybe??? as the wolf team. i'm unsure. i haven't sifted through the last few pages much yet but i saw my name and it was shiny to my eyes

I read this and felt like it reminded me of Radio Buzz for a minute - like the tone matches really well and I thought it was scummy, but then I remembered thinking it was scummy in Radio Buzz also and double checked and sure enough that was a town game - I just tend to scumread this kind of post from you because I think I'd seen you AtE over effort levels specifically, as scum, prior to Radio Buzz. But I think there's a distinction to be made and this feels like the town you.

Like when you're scum it doesn't look as much like AtE even though it makes me feel more AtE'ed, if that makes sense. As town it looks like AtE even though it's not really and it's just how you talk about your feelings. I think what I'm getting at is maybe that you force it a little more as scum but that you're good at it so even though you're fudging it a little it comes off more pure when you're scum

I think Ydrasse can definitely make that post as scum. There are still things in her early ISO that give me pause but I feel she has pretty good scum equity right now. I think there are probably things she is likely to do but likely can't fake in the long term with the current cadence of the game as well so I think she'll also become more readable over time so maybe she's a bad lim for today for that reason

[implosion]

honestly the thought of actually looking closely at Appearance's ISO gives me stomach pain because I have no idea how to interpret anything he says as alignment-indicative.

[implosion]

I think there are probably things she is likely to do but likely can't fake in the long term with the current cadence of the game as well so I think she'll also become more readable over time so maybe she's a bad lim for today for that reason

rip this i guess

Anyway I feel your frustration at me + your overall mode of engagement since coalition failed hasn't been overly scummy, BUT I did check your Toriel's Patience game and I feel your posting style os very different there. That's not to say you do not have nuanced takes in that game, but your takes this game DO feel calculated mostly.

.
I think there's probably a significant amount of difference in posting style between the games that can be attributed to that game being a large and this game being a micro. I usually avoid larges like the plague but that game was 14 players and the setup looked cool. I had certain anchors in that game that I haven't really found in this game (e.g. my mutual townread on Mandate), although I was also semi-widely scumread (though in a somewhat different way from this game). That game also kind of reinforced my feeling that my d1 reads are utter garbage and I think that's been weighing on me more than it did in that game; my first reads list in that game (mind you, it was post 1332, that game was much faster than this one) had, out of 13 players with 3 scum, one scum in the top 2 towniest ("very much locktown"), one scum in the next 2 towniest, and one scum ranked in the dead center of the reads list.

that's not an excuse to not have reads but I think it has been influencing the way I've viewed the game, it's been hard to trust myself on stuff this game.

[implosion]

Regarding the idea of Klick as scum: I think, based on what knowledge I do think I have of them, that they're out of their scumrange by and large. I think Klick isn't particularly notorious for having a good scumgame (and Klick seems to think so, though I did also say the same thing in the other coalition game as scum who was playing well). I think Klick has good odds of getting shot at some point despite being on coalition because I think Klick is town and is playing in a way that is very conducive to town winning, and if Klick gets shot then we don't need to think about Klick being a deepwolf anymore. It's possible Klick is scum but I think it's really unlikely and I'm not really interested in investigating it today in detail.

I also don't really think an exact Klick-DV scumteam is worth overthinking about because I think it's really unlikely to still be possible come 5p eLo if it comes to that, and if it does then it can be evaluated in context then I guess but I think the way the chips fell in the coalition kind of paints DV as town. I might not have great logic for that but I feel like DV's play as the coalition was coming down of just like, being there but not doing anything and eventually getting taken off is just not really what it looks like for DV to be scum there. I think scum off-coalition if there is any is likely to be T3. I could be wrong on gob in theory but I also don't think so and it sounds like people more familiar with gob think this is gob town so I don't really care to scrutinize him either.

[implosion]

(specifically it sounds like Dragon is worried specifically about DV+Klick and I think it's basically never worth limming DV or Klick on just that basis until/unless they both are alive in eLo, unless there are other good reasons to think one of them is scum individually which I think is not true right now)

[implosion]

Re: Ydrasse, I actually (possibly illogically) liked the timing of the dip in motivation. At least from my perspective of playing this setup for the first time, there was always the hope that I wouldn’t have to play anymore after the coalition phase, so afterwards was a bit of a slump for me. I expect scum would have been more energised by the coalition failing.

It sounded to me like she was saying it was for RL reasons, in which case I think the dip itself is not indicative

[implosion]

VOTE: Dunnstral

His entrance is not exactly impressive and I feel like Ydrasse was scum. I feel like the aspects of her posting that people were saying she'd have trouble faking as scum are actually things she definitely can fake over the course of her being in this game

T3 yfrasse seem good. implo will need to go some point soon. maybr dunn too

Do you realize Dunn replaced Ydrasse?

[implosion]

I get that you disagree with the reasons people have called Ydrasse town, but why was she scum, specifically?

Part of it is very squishy PoE, I think there's scum in ydrasse/appearance/kyouko and Appearance feels inscrutable and I feel kyouko is usually town. There are some aspects of Ydrasse's trajectory through the day that feel like they're how she would have played the day as scum.

I'm not wanting to put much into this game for the long weekend but should have more energy to devote to things in circa a couple days

[implosion]

The mafia obviously cannot let 5 townies get nomm'd day 1 or its over. Looking at these pools, it seems Kyouko and Ydrasse had the most incentive to push that coalition. Obviously there is the whole thing of "i know im town so I needa be in the coalition" but the mafia needs to be in or they lose.

I mean I understand the point (I think), but I think this logic ignores the context of how the phase actually happened here to the end. You said you haven't read it, you should just read it, it's less than a page. People had individual opinions but ultimately Dragon picked a coalition of 5 people, and then the day ended 20 minutes later with everyone voting the same coalition; no one really had to push it because the actual coalition that happened was

chosen

entirely by Dragon, and other people may have influenced it but their desires/influences can't be gleaned just by looking at where their final votes were.

I do think this would be a pretty needless tact for gob-scum to take

but it does feel like dragon has this energy throughout the game where he feels like he wants to be doing more, taking more control, forcing the gamestate into places he wants it to go. and he's presenting that as a town mindset, but if he is scum, then i think that kind of energy could manifest in making plays like this. i recognize it because i think i have that kind of energy as scum a lot, where i want to keep doing more and keep setting things up and improving the position

Yes exactly!!

I feel like this describes exactly what I know of Dragon playing as town like to a T though. He was really kind of perpetually self-critical, overconfidently evaluating and overconfidently re-evaluating and doing this process of trying to singlehandedly mold the gamestate a bunch.

[implosion]

I think fire is another person who I am sort of exceptionally bad at reading, at least I think I remember having weird trouble with reading them in some game. Their posting so far is consistent with what I remember of their towngame but I don't really remember their scumgame all that well.

I still like Dunn as a lim for today. I feel like this gamestate gives Dunn as scum every incentive to play the way he is of low throughput commentary without really committing to anything. There's lots of effort being directed kind of disorganizedly at fire and at Dragon and I feel like they're probably both town and Dunn fits well as scum in that world

I do think this would be a pretty needless tact for gob-scum to take

can you elaborate on this

I think if gob is scum he's probably happy to just keep drilling away at Dragon and getting townread by Dragon and others for it and this peer review exercise is just a way to unnecessarily draw attention to his slot

[implosion]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Appearance

implosion, is there a point in time where you expect Appearance to be less inscrutable to you?

Not really. I'd ultimately be happy with a lim on him for that reason since he's in the coalition and I like 3 of the people in the coalition

I am side eyeing you pretty hard for your push on me. Something about it doesn't feel like the way you play as town. You seem way too confident to be calling things out with little information to go on.

I don't mean to come off as confident, I'm not particularly confident that you're scum. It's pretty typical for me to be confident in townreads though by now

I don't think you ever answered this.

Thought i said this but I guess I didn't, your entrance doesn't "have to be" impressive for you to be town, that's a weirdly absolutist question to ask when I'm not claiming to be absolutely sure you're scum. I said your entrance was "not exactly impressive" which is shorthand for you haven't done anything to assuage my feelings on Ydrasse.

What implosion posts in 783 here is super vague and you can say this about pretty much anyone. I don't think implosion is super vague as town like this so this feels off to me. Also I want to note that I copy paste what implosion writes and make it about them to try to showcase this and Klick responds super seriously but without much explanation. My belief here is that Klick did not even read implosion's post above and did not realize I was posting the same thing as implosion, and this not reading of posts strikes me as more likely to come from mafia (regardless of implosion's alignment really)

I think I think i've been being clearer than I have been to some degree. I was specific in the mini wallpost on ydrasse but I haven't really explained what from that I was referring to or how my thoughts have developed but basically I came away from ISOing her with mixed feelings; I figured she'd likely be more readable over time and I had a sense of how I'd want to read her over time and that like mid next day or sometime like that I'd have a better sense of her based on how her engagement develops, how she tries to work with other people, etc. Then she repped out and it recontextualized her ISO to me as this thing where everything she has done feels eminently in her scumrange and she no longer will ever post things that are out of it, and you came in and did largely nothing in a gamestate that I think town is probably doing sorta poorly in and it just feels congruent with how scum would enter this particular game.

I also disagree with the point on Klick, I think missing entire posts is something that e.g. i'm probably more likely to do as town than as scum because as scum I'm deeply afraid of being misinterpreted or getting things wrong whereas when i'm town I know it's okay to just post things because I can always fall back on actually being town. Obviously it's not as simple as that but I don't think it's a meaningful scumtell particularly when I think reading your post without mine it looked like it was probably referencing something because there was no context

[implosion]

come talk about ydra/dunn and appearance with me

correct me if im wrong but the vibe i am kind of getting from you is that you are like "okay i feel like i know how to read these people (klick/dragon/kyo). and they seem town. and i don't really know how to read these people (ydra/appearance) confidently. so they're probably scum"

and like i get the appeal of that conceptually but idk it feels a little complacent. maybe you have stronger reasons for those slots being scum and i missed them

i guess i would just like to know more where your head is at in a broader, like, "how we should be approaching this gamestate" sense, which was something that i remember feeling was present from you in scarfolk

I'm not like specifically framing it that way internally but I guess? I don't really have a good amount of meta understanding of any of those 3 people ultimately. I think they have all towntold though. I will try to elaborate on Ydrasse since Dragon also asked. I definitely feel bad about not knowing about Appearance and I feel like I just kind of hope he is scum because my reads will happen to be better in that world

Scarfolk was sort of an exceptionally good game for me because I was able to pivot my leading the wrong lim on d1 into townblocking with Aisa to the point where I was able to view the game from a really high level and really feel like I was sorting things out. But this is a more typical d1 for me where I don't really feel amazing about anything except some townreads.

[implosion]

Regarding Ydrasse I just had the thought that it's possible her early read on me was TMI. Or like, that I was a convenient person in the gamestate for her to launch a vague defense of to maybe pocket. I don't remember if she's really seen my scumgame though she has seen my towngame recently and also in scarfolk


I mentioned that 354 is townish for her but I think it's certainly a post she makes sometimes as scum, particularly given that it was a pop-in where it was her first real post in 3 days and then she didn't post again for 2 days after that sequence of posts. I think openly voting a coalition without yourself is a sensible cheap way to buy some towncred when you're not really efforting as scum. That's not to say 354 is scummy, but that I think it is in her scum range.


I think 540 is the main post that I dislike as time has passed more. I initially mentioned this post giving me mixed feelings. The context here is that her last significant posting was 354, and it's been a few days and the coalition she voted in 354 is now at e-1. In that context it feels like a post she'd potentially make both if there's one scum on the coalition or if there's 0 - if there's 0 then she can't really unvote because that would be very auspicious and if there's 1 then she wants the coalition to go through. Like, whatever the gamestate around her is, if she's scum there then she is serviced heavily by waffling and not being the one to drive how the coalition changes because I think if she does try to take a major stance at that exact moment in time she's going to be very heavily scrutinized for it. So I think 540 is like, pretty exactly the post that Ydrasse makes there as scum, and I think there's lots of possible posts she could make there as town where she either commits to thinking the coalition needs to change and unvotes or she like, suggests what she thinks is an alternative or she doubles down on not wanting herself to be in the coalition or whatever.

I think the overall posting pattern of having like, a solid entrance to the game -> a couple moments of big effort and then being uninterested in much meaningful analysis outside of those moments, is a pattern that is pretty likely to come from scum who came in with the will to Do Stuff and who then lost some of that will over time because they didn't need to have it since no one was pressuring them, and is less likely to come from town who, when they make an effortful post, is necessarily mentally engaging with things that are happening. It's also why her replace out sort of frustrated me because I think that pattern continuing or not continuing would have been telling

I'll talk more about Dunn's posting at some point

[implosion]

On further thought I have a better explanation for why I don't like Dunn's play. I think Dunn's posting this game lacks a certain incisiveness that I think his towngame usually has. In scarfolk I townread his entrance to the game partially off the back of a very simple, incisive comment calling something very specific out. Here he didn't make any posts resembling that sort of thing until 888 and that post is just not as direct or specific, it doesn't feel like his push on me has the same kind of weight behind it that I think his argumentation tends to have as town. I think he was that way in Toriel's patience too but it's a weird game for his meta and I'm too lazy to look for specifics. His comment on Klick in 896 is sort of this kind of thing but I think the comment itself is more likely to come from scum wanting to say something clever than town who actually believes it.

I think it's also the way he interacts with the gamestate, it feels weirdly detached here with him grappling with me some but only ever making a comment actually relevant to the coalition (which is the natural focus of d1) when prompted to.

[implosion]

Implo can you post a reads list perchance?

Within the coalition, Dragon > Klick > fire >> Appearance >> Dunn. I think Klick's engagement going down is a little bit of a knock against him but not enough to want to re-evaluate at all. I like fire's posting and gamestate interaction and it feels viscerally like how I remember his towngame feeling. I think the order of the top 3 could change if you ask me at a different time of day though.

I think App+Dunn is a very viable scumteam, I haven't thought too closely outside of the coalition today but I thought Elements was quite town and still think you're town though I also sympathize with people who say they have no idea how to distinguish you throwing reads out there as town vs as scum. I think the trajectory you've gone on today would be really weird as scum though. Then DV (who I've kind of forgotten about some but don't really care to think about his alignment deeply until we find scum on coalition) then T3 (who can like always just be scum here but I think is less likely to be scum than having 2 on coalition)

[implosion]

implosion can you help me understand why this is town!you analysis and not scum!you analysis?

Honestly, since my previous coalition game I feel less confident in answering questions of self-meta in an honest way. I feel like I could say things but I think I might be lying to myself if I did so because I think in that game I was able to fabricate a lot of things that I think I'm usually bad at doing as scum. So II think the things about my play that I think I'd have a hard time replicating as scum might just be self-deception. I honestly don't know what the best way to read me in general is right now but I think it's probably not off of the analysis that I give?

One thing that I do think might be different about the specific stuff you quoted is that I think I might have said it sooner as scum, I've had a lot of swirling thoughts about Ydrasse and I think I thought I'd been clear about them and I really hadn't been, and I think when I'm scum it can be important to me to put logic out there (since I'm trying to emulate my towngame which is sometimes just a pile of disorganized logic) and I would have wanted to be clearer about things faster?

[implosion]

In that context it feels like a post she'd potentially make both if there's one scum on the coalition or if there's 0 - if there's 0 then she can't really unvote because that would be very auspicious and if there's 1 then she wants the coalition to go through.

If there's 0 and Ydrasse was mafia then not unvoting could lead to losing the game. You rpoint that she can't unvote because she would look bad doesn't really hold up - indeed she would have to unvote.

well my present leading theory is that there was 1 on it anyway but I think it is entirely possible for Ydrasse-scum with 0 on that coalition to not unvote there, both because it's a big payoff if the coalition does swing a different way and because her unvoting in no way guarantees that it will swing a different way; in fact it might do exactly the opposite. Coalition gets to E-1 and a person not on the coalition who was voting it unvotes it? That's a potential red flag.

[implosion]

im mostly thinking of scarfolk again, partly because this game has felt similar in a lot of ways to me, and i remember you being much more wary there

this is some impressive timing lol

I think the copy/paste thing is like, in the form of something Dunn does as town but in substance it feels like something Dunn is doing to emulate his towngame as scum.

implo the thing i am struggling with is it's hard for me to see ydra playing this way as scum, UNLESS her partner was in a quite stable position

I think this is maybe making too strong of an assumption of how much effort she wanted to put into the game? I think her emotional trajectory makes sense, as far as we got to see it, with any scum partner if she had external reasons for not wanting to commit a ton of energy to the game (i.e. real life, which it sounds like she was preoccupied with). Like her pop ins make sense as low-effort high-throughput scum posts in a pattern of not really actually committing to helping solve the game. It's possible that this is me starting to tunnel though

[implosion]

I think both fire and T3's interpretations of the kill are reasonable at a glance. I'm not sure who Appearance would have shot though, DV or me is the obvious choice but it's possible it would have seemed too auspicious or off chance it's possible they're both scum and think they can keep me in the lim pool. But if Appearance is scum then it feels like there's basically no utility in shooting gob unless it's Appearance+Dragon which I doubt. It might just mean that fire is scum though I don't think fire as scum would be specifically afraid of gob.

I think there's a good chance that different scum players in this setup would view shooting on-coalition differently, which makes NK spec somewhat tricky. It's possible that some scum players in this setup would just avoid shooting on coalition no matter what. I think if I were scum in this setup in general I'd be fairly loath to shoot on coalition. It's possible DV is scum thinking along those lines but I think if DV were scum maybe he would have just shot Dragon anyway. And also we're still limming on coalition anyway and gob dying does not preclude there being 2 scum on coalition as a possibility. It might even be an indicator that way that scum need to find more people to shoot off coalition.

This is all very waffly and I think the conclusion is that I need to try again to actually directly read Appearance's play.

[implosion]

It's really peculiar to try to analyze a kill on someone who didn't have any thread control but had strong opinions that were running against the grain.

[implosion]

Where are you at between Dragon/Klick, then?

[implosion]

I honestly think that gob was the obvious low-info kill here and tbh I think it's a bit scummy of all three of you, fireisred, and T3 to be talking about the kill as if it gives info, because again it's a freaking low-info kill.

I don't think this is a scum reaction to all this. If Dragon shot gob because gob was suspicious of him, or even because he wanted a low info kill, I don't see the scum utility for calling like half the player list scummy for NK spec. It's one of those things that is just more likely to draw ire from a bunch of people than it is to swing around the other way to being called town for it

[implosion]

I would like to hear from Appearance what his current read on the scum in coalition is given the flip, and if he has any strong views on partnerships or generally what angle he's viewing solving the game from at this point.

[implosion]

Right now I'm mostly feeling that I just still don't buy dragon scum. This pivot on to Klick feels like, to a tee like what I'd expect him to do as town here in terms of tone and substance. It's the kind of thing that I think I'd expect often from him as town (because I think he probably tends to re-evaluate things at this point in the game + he's had consistent underlying suspicion/uncertainty about Klick since the coalition phase) and rarely from him as scum (because it along with the above post I quoted give me an impression of someone who is more concerned about saying his piece than being townread)

[implosion]

I don't want to eliminate appearance anymore. I'm not usually one to analyse kills in great depth but I don't think the gob kill happens if gob was totally wrong. If gob was wrong on his reads, then leave him alive, let him steamroll through his pool or draw the ire of the rest of the town and get eliminated. As scum, I would NOT be expecting the town to sheep dead-gob, so all the more reason to.

Now, it is slightly problematic that gob's pool included 3 people on the coalition, but the fact is that gob clearly didn't want Appearance gone and so I don't either.

I... think I might need to just go for fireisred. There is nothing wrong with their play. They are totally reasonable and full of that townie goodness and all that, but with a lack of other options I feel good about, that is no longer really enough. Throughout my day of thinking anout the game I have swayed a little on DragonEater. There would be something satisfying about Dragon being scum, but I'm still not actually sure that this is it. There is a slight "unhinged" quality to Dragon's play at times that I think would be difficult to fake, whereas fireisred... I could see it?

Elsewhere, I do kind of like that implosion went a bit against the grain on DragonEater by calling him town for what I thought were good reasons.

I do want to be open-minded and so am interested to see where Klick goes on that read. After all, gob called Dragon scum too, but I'm not sure that I see it.

I feel this post pretty strongly.

I've read the Klick case and my biggest hangup on Klick-scum is just that I don't know if their scumrange is especially big - I'm still inclined to believe Klick as scum just wouldn't be able to have lead in coalition forming the particular way they did. I'm inclined right now to default to fire being scum, similar to the sentiment Klick is outlining here, in that everyone else on coalition feels harder and I think fire has been town but iirc they have a pretty wide scumrange. I expect Dragon has a pretty wide scumrange as well but all the little aspects of their play just feel like earnest town too, things like 1149 and the wallpost followed by immediately saying that writing the wallpost raised some apprehension on the Klick scumread are maybe the kinds of things I am more inclined to townread than I should be but I feel it all fits cohesively in a world where Dragon is town.

I think the Klick case paints a very reasonable portrait of Klick's potential scum motivations for various aspects of play but parts of it do feel tunnelly/uncharitable.

[implosion]

(and I think the reasons to think Klick is town outweigh the possible cohesive narrative of some of the things Klick has done making sense as coming from scum)

[implosion]

Something just feels really off about fire as the answer.

I think I'm struggling with the idea that if Dragon/Appearance are both town then this game really should have been a win at coalition, and I've talked myself into the D1 narrative not supporting the idea that we swapped from a pass to a fail.

Remind me what is about the narrative that you believe doesn't support this? I feel like the narrative of how we actually ended up at the coalition that happened is more or less fiat of Dragon. And (if Dragon is town) then that fiat was influenced by people's opinions but it was ultimately a fiat.

[implosion]

the issue i have with that part is that i wasn't really convinced that he was truly having doubts. it's easy to post a case and then say you have doubts, but generally with a town player writing a case who begins to have doubts while writing it, you will feel those doubts start to creep in to the case itself

I don't think this would be true of Dragon town. I think Dragon is probably the kind of player who has real conviction while writing something, then takes a step back while out of the mindset of writing it and has (or doesn't have) second thoughts. Or (as he mentioned) who would be very performative about a scumread, but also will step back and re-examine things or allow some room for doubt if/when he thinks he's supposed to.

I think the reason I feel the doubts are townish is that it makes his plan/trajectory today complex, whereas if he's scum it seems like he just wants to be wrestling with Klick, though I guess this is theoretically something scum could do as an off-ramp.

fire is town. I feel and have felt incredibly in-sync with him and would be shocked if he's scum. I have thought many of the same things that he has thought on multiple different occasions and there have been certain things that I've thought but not said in thread but then that he's said in thread

Could you name some of these things?

[implosion]

And personality I think low-info kills are preferred in coalitoon games because of the nature of the lim pool. See Coalition of Frogs for an example of a particularly egregious N1 low info kill.

This is a bad example for your point because scum was limmed d1 in that game, which means the lim pool was not restricted after d1.

[implosion]

(And as the scum who chose that kill, it was sort of partially because it was low-info, but it was mostly because (1) I was near the top of the town pool and needed to kill someone random-looking at some point in the game and it felt right to do so sooner than later, which is related to the fact that it was low-info, and (2) I explicitly wanted to shoot someone who was townreading me in that gamestate, which is in a sense the opposite of it being low-info)

[implosion]

I think DV's play today is town very very frequently. Trying to undermine and dismantle a 1v1 between two people on coalition feels like very needlessly anti-wincon play if it's TvT, and if it's SvT then it's more possible but the way he's doing it feels like the way I'd expect him to act as town.

Dragon, why do you think T3/kyo is a very unlikely team? Based on coalition dynamics, or otherwise?

[implosion]

I think that I feel very dismissive of possible reasons to scumread Dragon right now which maybe I shouldn't be but I feel like there is just a pile of reasons to townread him at this point. Like I just don't really agree with anything in 1179. I guess the doubts thing is not an excellent reason to townread him but there are so many others, and I really disagree that a presence or lack of substance behind the read is even relevant to his alignment. I feel that probably for most players it's the opposite and it's less relevant to see if there is actual good logic behind the read and more relevant to see (1) are they reading/analyzing at a basic level (the answer to this will almost always be yes as either alignment but still good to check I guess) and (2) is there a reason for them to be going through the motions that they are as scum. And I don't think Dragon has a good reason to go and hammer Klick at the start of today as scum, I think he has plenty of reason to go after fire or especially to try to keep Appearance in the lim pool as scum. Instead he's doiing this weird thing where everyone else is dismissing Appearance as possible scum because of the NK but he's saying no, actually the NK is 100% meaningless, but Appearance is obvtown on play. He just keeps doing things that I feel are just procedurally more likely to draw ire than they are to actually win people over if he's scum, and if he's scum he gets to choose what performance he's performing, whereas as town he's bound by the whims of his actual feelings about the game

[implosion]

I don't really agree with Dragon's reasons for fire being scum but I do think fire is the best lim, though pretty much purely for PoE. So I guess I think fire is the best lim for the reasons that fire thinks they're an okay lim, which actually might be a thing fire posts more frequently as scum than as town. I'm not like excited by it though and I'm very unexcited by what tomorrow looks like if it's wrong, especially if T3 is town. I do think if he flips scum I'd probably just want T3 next though if he flips town it might mean T3 is town given how T3 is playing today.

I'm feeling detached from the game right now, kind of for RL reasons but mostly because I feel like my d1 reads are all just bad as a result of Dunn being town + the gob nk and I sort of feel broadly not that invested/like the remaining coalition members are kind of a blob except for Dragon.

[implosion]

Don't really have the energy to read all this posting from fire or in general in depth right now but i will try to at some point

imp and T3, I'm gonna need a favor of you:

How likely do you think the scumteam is to be Klick/DV?

Not likely.

[implosion]

I've caught up.

I'm a bit tired of thinking about DragonEater's alignment in this game in general. Because there's a lack of clarity as to his perceived and actual scum range, and I haven't a clue what a DragonEater scum game would actually look like if he drew red here. Contrast that with feeling like I know what a fire scum game would look like - very similar to a town one, and what we're seeing currently. This description encapsulates why I am uncertain here.

I feel sort of rotationally similar to this, in that I think I'm being convinced that I have a pretty murky picture of what a DragonEater scum game would look like but I think I do know what his town game would look like if he had drawn green here and it's pretty much this picture. I am remembering that fire is a player I have historically figured that I probably just can't read well at all. I feel like fire's reasons for "this could be Dragon's scum game" in 1285 are in essence compelling reasons for exactly that, that the way Dragon played around the coalition is not a reason to locktown Dragon because it can come from Dragon-scum. But "this thing people are locktowning Dragon for could come from Dragon as scum" is not strictly a reason to scumread Dragon, and it's not even necessarily an argument that that thing Dragon did isn't on net more likely to come from him as town than as scum. I feel like the wholistic read of Dragon's ISO at this point just makes it hard for me to believe that it's not his town game, and it's possible that

i

am town tunneling him but things like him calling T3 scum for taking 4 minutes to read a post and his (I agree with fire here) very uninspiring logic in 1348 are, I think, also evidence of him being town because I just don't understand what reasons he has to post those things as scum. The former just alienates T3 if T3 is town and looks really weird and attention-draw-y if they're scum together, the latter is the kind of thing that I feel is very easy to post when you have the brazenness of actually being town and very hard to decide to post when you're in this public 1v1 as scum and you're trying to play the crowd or whatever. Bad logic is probably pretty correlated with being town, in practice, because town is on average less self-critical about what they're posting.

Basically I think I haven't seen any good reason why Dragon wouldn't have made any of the posts he's made as town.

I think fire is the best lim. I ideally would like to get some life out of Appearance before day end but I know he's V/LA.

[implosion]

implosion who do you plan to vote rn?

I think fire is the best lim.

I think fire/t3 is perfectly viable but also I don't think someone "needs" to have a viable partner to be a good lim, I think in a world where there are 5 people who could theoretically be a partner, even if there were good reasons to discount all 5 of them, the summation of those 5 reasons would not amount to a good reason to not lim the person, especially since a coalition game gives scum plenty of opportunities to potentially make plays that rule out their partnership.

I'm mostly not voting right now because I still would like more from Appearance ideally but I'm not opposed to ending the day for the sake of moving things forward if people are feeling like they want a flip.

[implosion]

I don't think you are gonna get more from Appearance tbh

yeah, so it seems.

Dragon, is there anything else you care about today before I hammer?

[implosion]

implo i would like to hear more about your thought progression on appearance

I feel a little bit uninterested in talking about Appearance in depth right now because I feel confident at this point that you're the right lim for the gamestate and I think whether you flip town or scum it's probably useful for us if scum aren't sure exactly where people are at with Appearance.

In short though a lot of your play has been recontextualized for me as I've remembered that your playstyle as scum is probably roughly designed to make specifically me as a person always instinctively townread you, and so I can't really trust the things I was townreading you for, and as I've had that recontextualization most of your posting just makes me feel like yeah, you can definitely post this as scum. I feel that way about all the things T3 listed as well.

I feel sort of bad because in some sense I'm kind of giving up on accurately reading both you and Appearance on play, and if I had more energy to invest this game I might be able to sort you more meaningfully but I think the gob kill as a point is enough for me to not want Appearance anymore (the fact that he's refusing to engage with anything is trying my patience on this but I don't think it's scum-indicative) and I feel like my reasons to townread Klick and Dragon are just sturdier. I have a rough idea of where I'll be at if you flip town but I don't see any good reason to elaborate on it in depth.

[implosion]

Didn't you say you were find with missing today

Missing on coalition and missing off coalition are

dramatically

different. The point of missing not being the end of the world is that at least it gives new info and whittles things down but the only hard info we have is, there is scum on the coalition. Mislimming off coalition gives us no new info in that regard. Even if we lim successfully off coalition, scum will just shoot off coalition and we'd have to deal with the coalition tomorrow. It's very clearly bad.

Just from an EV perspective, if we miss off coalition and scum shoot off coalition then our EV is 1/4 * 1/3 = 1/12, if we miss on coalition then our EV is 1/3 * 1/3 = 1/9. That's 33% better odds of winning in the latter case in pure numbers. And I think the way discourse has revolved around the coalition this phase is all the more reason to lim on it. I think it's really hard to resolve the coalition without just flipping fire, and that if fire is town, we need to know that asap.

[implosion]

I'm really glad fire was scum. I think I have a pretty solid foundation to think everyone left but T3 is town here especially with fire flipping scum.

I am happy to talk about those reasons in depth in theory, but I feel fairly convinced that I will want T3 today and I suspect at least Klick and DV are on the same page of wanting to lim T3 today and if they are, and if they also don't think discussion is likely to change that, then I think it is worth not going into depth about things today for the sake of obfuscating who the right nightkill is in the event that T3 is town.

I'm flying across the country tomorrow so will probably have very limited brain juice.

[implosion]

Actually no, thinking on it more, I think considering the context of this specific game I'd rather have discussion today because I think we can reach 3 town with a high degree of confidence.

Would still like T3's thoughts before any of that though

I don't have a

strong

preference between the options. I think the gamestate if T3 flips town without discussion is probably above average in terms of ambiguity in who scum ought to kill, sort of no matter who scum is, which is why I think low discussion could be valuable. The main thing we lose out on in that scenario is thoughts/discussion from whoever gets NKed, which could be more valuable in this game than the average game since you/me/DV are all pretty analytic types to some extent. And I guess people taking committal stances today that can be analyzed tomorrow but eh, that's the whole point.

Getting T3's thoughts is definitely good either way and if T3 does flip scum then it's all moot. I am also curious of T3's thoughts on Appearance, mostly if he's PoEing Appearance off of primarily the gob nk or also on play. He might have already said previously but I'm too lazy to go look right now.

[implosion]

I should have time/energy tomorrow to do stuff.

DV, why the hammer on T3 with multiple open questions to him?

[implosion]

My first instinct here is that Appearance is scum. I have to temper it some because there's a degree of I just don't want to lose to Appearance if he is scum here but I still have never found much that he's done townish. The gob kill was the really only thing I was clearing him off of and fire flipping scum does mitigate it somewhat particularly since it's possible that fire picked the kill and Appearance was just sort of along for the ride.

kyouko's play is less interesting for me since I know I'm town but there's still differences between how DV and Appearance d1 that are relevant. Joint ISOing kyouko + dragon (since Dragon was leading the rhetoric for what it seemed like the coalition would be, though this isn't a perfect science and I'm leaving out many details): Dragon gave his first long-standing "solve" in 133 (containing DV and Appearance) and kyouko still doesn't really do stuff for a while. Dragon later unheals Appearance and, in chatting with Klick, floats an option that is 4 flipped town + DV. Shortly after that Dragon expresses some paranoia about DV and then heals Appearance, presumably in response to the prior post Appearance made, bringing him back to the first solve. Throughout all of this kyouko mostly isn't posting, eventually she makes 360 shading DV which is interesting. The next post, Dragon unheals Klick+DV based on paranoia that I am scum and that if I am scum that one of them is my partner (and he also says that if I'm town he still thinks there's scum in the coalition). He then immediately heals kyouko quoting post 360. Before kyouko ever posts again, he makes 432 going back to the coalition from 133 that he had supposedly paranoiad off of because of thinking about me. And *that* is the moment that kyouko starts to come alive in the thread.

This all kind of reads to me like kyouko just didn't have time/energy before and now she did; the dominant thread narrative had been what it was for a while. She may not have even been trying to get on the coalition; in 447 where she heals herself + 3 town, and says that she'd like the fifth to be T3 or Appearance, I think it's entirely possible that she just doesn't actually think what she's doing is a politically viable coalition, but she's saying it because she generally needs to do shit at some point to look town. She says she wants me/DV/Klick off coalition because she thinks that list contains 2 scum. That line does make a lot of sense with DV scum at a base level but I think it makes even more sense as scum who already has a scumbuddy in the leading coalition (whoever it is), who is mostly trying to muddle things, and who included Appearance-scumbuddy as a possible 5th so as to hedge on whether or not to include a scumbuddy. I'm trying to get in her headspace to some degree but I started writing this like two hours ago and then had to go to a meeting and so my train of thought is kind of derailed and now I'm heading out again soon but will probably say more later today

In essence, I think kyouko fought the status quo because, well, why not fight the status quo there as scum. The status quo was sort of muddled but it had been that coalition for quite a while earlier; I think kyouko just had a surge of will to play the game and rode that, possibly off the back of Dragon liking post 360, because anything scum can do to obfuscate things in that phase is good for them. I kind of think kyouko might not have even wanted anything she was saying to be listened to in the ideal case but she still found it worth saying, if that makes sense.

[implosion]

implo, how sold are you on me being scum?

Not. The above post was one thing that I was stream of consciousness ISO-ing. It's not my full thoughts on both of you.

Your play frustrates me because in the early game, I found your ISO inscrutable, not through any fault of your own if you're town. And since the early game, you've given ostensibly nothing readable. I rely on recalibrating across days in general because my d1 reads are usually pretty bad and I feel like you haven't given anything to work with; it's frustrating because I think it is possible for you to have the ISO that you do as town but it feels like it's impossible for me to find if that's the case. And if you're scum it's not like I'm learning anything interesting from this game, I guess I'd be learning to not use NK speculation as a stopgap.

I was thinking yesterday that you were likely scum if T3 were to flip town, which is why I wanted to know why T3 thought you were PoE-able, but then DV hammered. Dragon mentioned finding your ISO town but I remember having no idea why he'd think that. And now you coming into the day saying you're going to read a bunch of stuff, and then turning around and trying to suss out exactly where I stand before committing to where you stand, sits very wrong. I also have no idea why you'd expect me to vote you within like 24 hours of the final day opening. That's something I'd do almost never as any alignment in any final 3.

So I guess not sold, but increasingly sold as I write this post.

[implosion]

VOTE: Implosion

There!

I did it.

I’m sorry if this isn’t right. With Appearance there is a certain amount of… unawareness to the extent that I’m not actually sure he can be scum? But I just don’t know… but what I do know is that it’s looking like I’m not really going to have any more information than what I have now.

Aah!

:\

I am inclined to think that this is a wrong vote from town even with no hammer for however many hours it's been.

I've come down with a cold so not going to be doing a ton right now but, if you are town, please unvote. I feel like if i'm right and you are town then it is possible to get to a point of you figuring out that I'm town still

if I'm wrong then well, etc.

[implosion]

if he was around and town he would have posted to show he's not hammering. he just hasn't been around

[implosion]

i'm going to have a lot of egg on my face if you are scum but oy

[implosion]

in a world where we both are town yes, you'd have egg on your face

in a world where you are scum, you do not have egg on your face... because you are scum

[implosion]

idk, i feel like if i were scum here i'd just accept the crossvote and not like. freak out about you voting me with this much time having passed. maybe i'm wrong but if i'm right then losing this game just feels so bad

[implosion]

.-.

[implosion]

welp.

VOTE: DeasVail

I am town but I don't really blame you if you make the wrong call here. I guess T3 was right at least

[implosion]

- Klick knows me well and read me as town

This is, at the very least, not a reason to consider DV town over me. I was Klick's professed strongest townread (which also implies Klick wasn't certain on DV) and DV as scum has plenty of reason to shoot Klick if DV thinks Klick can read him, because he'd be afraid of Klick reading him right in eLo.

- my approach to this day would be much higher risk if scum. In a world where I am scum and implosion is town, it makes more sense for me to rely on implosion voting you than relying on you voting implosion.

This is in some sense fair (and why I don't blame Appearance if he gets it wrong). DV is, I would guess, afraid of me close-reading things and changing my mind, given that I've been reading and evaluating and (as I said) I wasn't sold on DV being town initially. I mean, it's very good play. But it does make sense from scum because it gives him the upper hand in the 1v1. Actually there's a good chance he just came into today with this as his plan and is just following through on that. I don't claim to know exactly why he's playing the way he is but it's definitely sensible to do as scum

For example the day where fire was eliminated, he kept saying that fire was the best elim but did nothing to help push that through as if he was hoping for something else to emerge, but he also did not push an alternative… he was just… there!

This is like, extremely not how I would play there as scum. If I wanted to bus, I'd have bussed. Compare my other recent coalition game where I wound up hard bussing my partner d1 after we were both on coalition; obviously, different circumstances, but yeah, in practice in this setup when I was scum and decided I wanted to bus (and probably in a gamestate where it was much less clear that my scum partner was going to be the lim, if anything) I hard bussed. I think my play this game probably looks almost nothing like that game, and for reasons that are largely alignment; in that game I had an intricate plan spanning several days I was trying to execute. My towngame is much less like that, as illustrated by me not really actually trying to push things through (like the fire lim), because, well, I've felt pretty bad about my reads for most of this game and even fire I felt very very bad about flipping scum, in the way of like, I felt like there was some doom in the air if he did flip town and that there were pretty good odds of it even if I felt like it was the best lim.

I also think a lot of the play since I voted for him has kind of been performance, which is why I didn’t unvote! The whole thing about egg on his face, struck me as something town wouldn’t naturally think, because I thought they would be more immediately worried about you hammering than me being scum. It was like he was preparing for the 1v1 with me before you had even posted.

I mean I think DV could say this about literally anything I had posted after he voted me lol

It's also just a misrepresentation of what happened, I was worried about Appearance hammering... which is why I asked DV to unvote. I was literally immediately worried about Appearance hammering. And then DV doubled down, and so yeah, I was being somewhat performative at that point because I thought him voting me was losing the game and it didn't seem like I could convince him otherwise and I didn't have the energy to like, launch a wall of text at it. In retrospect DV seemed like he wasn't going to be convinced because he's scum and thought he needed to commit to this tact.

[implosion]

Appearance, there is also a wealth of game that has happened to draw from. I'm not completely sure how checked out you have been from things that have gone on while you were on vacation. There's plenty of time until deadline if you want to either eventually read our ISOs, or ask any questions, etc.

[implosion]

Take your time. The longer it takes, the more hot takes we get to see from the dead thread.

[implosion]

<48 hours.

[implosion]

GG.

The main piece of evidence I felt was compelling for DV-town was Kyouko's investment in getting into the coalition at the times she was going for it. I feel like implosion became much more likely scum when Kyouko was the partner because it explained the sense of urgency

On the last day I was sort of loath to actually talk about this at all because like, everything is spinnable of course but golly gosh did I think that d1 was gonna look bad. kyouko did what she needed to remarkably well, and I'm happy with the fact that I decided at the time that my best course of action was to outwardly give up, because it did give me at least a little bit of an out later on of "but why would I have given up and accepted this all town coalition" even if I never appealed to it directly. I think the normal way that I look at this setup is that the coalition phase is usually-but-not-always doomed to fail and town should try to make it work but also not *necessarily* sweat the details, and this game highlights how small changes and individual plays and reactions can have outsized influence.

This game was in many ways a painful grind; we weren't "supposed" to get out of the coalition phase, but once we did there was enough going on in the game that we could hide from it for a bit, but ultimately we had to shoot gob (which I think I'm quite glad we did even if it zapped appearance out of the lim pool) and then dragon was just kind of, there and liable to crack the scumteam open at any moment, and various other dynamics like Klick and DV trusting each other in the way they did made it a pretty narrow path.

And yeah, the flavor...yeah.......

[implosion]

I don't think I played particularly well on the whole. I do think I had a couple of moments of making a right decision, but I think I was never really able to get into a groove in this game from a combination of getting caught early by dragon, and being a little irked at rolling scum in this setup twice in a row, and RL reasons. I frankly think kyouko and fire both played significantly better than me, of course I'm the one alive at the end because I was the one outside coalition, but I really think fire in particular is a stellar scum player. I genuinely do not have any idea how to read them consistently. I think fire was up against a situation d2 that was sort of insurmountable, but they still managed to sow pretty significant doubts and essentially buy me the T3 lim the next day.

[implosion]

And yeah, the flavor...yeah.......

What? You mean to tell me that you never imagined in 2011 that in 2024 you'd be playing in a Pizza Kids theme game where you're fighting for your life against a

Groundhog Day

all-powerful eldritch horror Chuck E. Cheese and his cult of small children?

I mean the main thing is I could just never be sure if this is something you did to everyone, or just me x_X

perhaps even with the evidence i now see laid out before my eyes, i still will never be sure