Team Mafia 2018: White Flag — Day Six

[Lycanfire]

[VOTE: Shea

[Lycanfire]

I'll need some clarification on that vote at some point, Lycan

It was an RVS vote because I didn't want to leave RVS. I wanted to make a sillier looking vote but I somewhat felt bad for Mathblade so I made it coherent enough to be picked up by their web bot.

Do you usually need reasons for RVS votes?

[Lycanfire]

And yeah, I think scum might have their eyes on the start time a bit more particularly since we didn't have to confirm roles.

I feel like this is more a product of you not understanding current MS playerbase. Which holds for the spam comment I didn't quote.

You're still laying it on and contributing to a much stronger null-because-i-want-it-to-be-null-read now.

i think this is more of a product of llamarble pushing a biased agenda. Ethier way he either genuinely believes Marquis is scum at this point or llamarble is scum.

OK, I am caught up, feel free to fire questions at me.

Is this a scumclaim. What make you so special that anyone needs to ask you instead of the other way around --maybe it's your catch-up posts, let's investigate-- are you scum?

sauce has a "i want the spotlight on me" feel.

when you are close to reading people but decide doing it properly is too much work

[Lycanfire]

llamarble is quite the confident player. Already isssued a warning about being NK'd if he's sorted. Not a fan of players talking about they'll get NK'd this early in the game.

This is the entire point behind Llamarble's play. This is a problem I see too often: players want certain other players to flip a certain way, so they stick with their first gut instinct instead of fully absorbing what other people are doing. This amounts to feely bullshit.

Also, we should probably lynch one of the players who has already posted today.

Agreed.

Vote: 'marble

F...first has scummy cadence too. Did we ever calculate whether ellipses are just a scumtell? Doesn't matter.

If we want people to take such micro scum tells, we have to be more rigorous. You can't just lump in a mid-word ellipsis with general ellipses.

Keychain now also agrees that northsidegal wouldn't pick scum and has provided this game as evidence, highlighting this post.

I like how by providing evidence you've managed to make your claim less compelling than it was previously.

Llamarble is obviously putting all the attention on himself to rile up opportunistic scum. CES immediately jumps on it. I don't like Llamarble talking himself up on a personal level - it's pretentious - so why does he post it? It's because anyone that would actually raise an issue with it is crippled, reaching for low hanging fruit.

VOTE: Cogito Ergo Sum

Tchill seems town so far. "Alarmed" post counts in favor and scumhunting seems genuine enough.

You don't think his catch-up-style entry to the game felt forced? I'm assuming he's used to a spammier meta than we are and catching up on a 4/5 page game seems weird to me. Achieving a natural game entry as scum is generally not trivial, especially given the Marquiswagon, and this seems like an affectation that would let him sidestep the essential difficulty.

Open wolf season

[Lycanfire]

Going to say this right now: I'm busy. I'm read up to and including page 14. I'd like to thank everyone for not making this a toxic wasteland like other games have turned out to be. Tomorrow and Friday I will re-double my efforts on this.

This isn't the lycanfire reads collectors edition, it isn't calling a team and running with it. I'm quite vocal on never having nullreads, so push comes to shove I sort people into two categories and slap disclaimer bumper stickers all over them if i think I'm driving too nice of a car into the neighbourhood. The point is to drive the car over the finish line, not to look good doing it.

Town
Shea - asks the questions that popped into my head as I was reading, and even one i would have otherwise missed (#250) sorting of LQ seems genuine (or at least this is not s/s). i feel that by being easily baited into discussing reck's feelings he had first feelings of doubts, and began pausing each time he interacted with a scumread. 265 isn't exactly a 'push', it's very awkwardly worded. (for someone that said "okay we have our first" shea isn't exactly lowering the boom with "if you're town you're not going a good job". particularly in 270 I feel like Shea is so focused on Reck's read that he is unable to see what is in front of him. In 293 he does the exact same thing, in fact the strange wording with Gamma comes back but is directed towards LQ here at the end. My read on Shea is that he is too easily baited into questioning Reck's read that he himself is not putting in the work in the area Reck pointed him in. The entirety of @Drunkards should listen to him talk about the game rather than the other way around.

ActionDan - He offers a fair roast of Gamma and takes what is oddly a hard position for other people to come to? Motives here seem well intentioned. I feel like his take on 254 is fair - at first it reads like Shea whiteknights Dunnstral, however it's pretty well established that Gamma has nothing to go on, so it's a worthwhile nudge by Shea. I differ on his opinion on 265. Shea's word choice changes quite rapidly from "got our first" to "not doing a good job [if town]" I've reconciled it in my own way. I don't think it breaks from Dan's comment "honest" but it's something that should have been questioned or internalized? Premature.

NSG - I feel like Llamarble's tell wasn't something concrete- but my opinion on Marquis is that his attempts at early game dejection (awww shucks) were noise. Nothing that helped us in any way. Maybe unfair-if showing emotion is town, is perceived attempts at humanizing yourself to others always scum? Is failing to do so also scum? I don't have a cookie cutter for every read- I collect the circumstances and walk the path the people I read walk in. When the reality I experience is disjointed from the one being presented to me I feel dysphoric, I want to correct it, and to make it "right". I feel like pushing Marquis is absolutely fair, but it wasn't an end all read on the slot.

scum
Tchill - i thought i was being quite inflammatory by saying his reads on llamarable and sauce should have been flipped, and that he made some attempt to read but fell short and decided to phone it in rather than come up with something real. i feel like scum tchill immediately discredits me here, but he did not, so i don't know what to make of that. he follows up on my push on CES in 246 by saying what amounts to "there is Y, and as a result maybe X (but I'm going to yell over that possibility and discount it)". i don't see how that's fair.

LQ - I feel like he dragged his heels in defense of himself by focusing so much on Reck's read. If Shea were to pop into the thread and say "by powers of his supreme deductive ability Reck says LQ is scum, also I am on the toilet right now" and never talks about LQ again, doesn't LQ have a good pillow to throw himself on rather than the sword he leaps on with 252? The "I am innocent" vibe I get out of this does nothing to convince me of it. I have 267 noted down as being entirely mechanical. It's back to the baiting of Reck's read I spoke of above in combination with going down this route anyway. Like LQ said later on, eventually a conversation just stops, but why did this one start?! To prove doubt? It looks like he succeeded, because Shea never once stops doubting himself to call LQ out on baiting him into shit that doesn't matter. LQ makes an effortpost later on, but I feel like the basic thesis of 308 is a

complete

break from his earlier "WIFOM bomb" comment.

Gamma - Bad vote aside, it reads like a machine shit out 253. A HUMAN BEING would

show dejection

of being so obviously wrong- they would feel silly, frustrated, or otherwise upset, and from that alone we could observe that

all actions

that came from that premise were as so. Instead Gamma sits there and writes "

I

see that

you

are right

, and

I no longer FoS you

." Compare this to Shea who has real moments of pausing and doubt, real flaws that he doesn't admit and may not even be conscious of. The "bus vote" thing being more likely over Dunnstral choosing a name and going out for lunch feels pretty nefarious in motive. LQ points this out, and I don't feel like they're a viable team despite trying to outscum one another on the same page. There's no proverbial lion in the room that necessitates outrunning your fat friend here. incidental.

Llamarble - He may be Llamarble, but I'm not sure if he is righteous...

Postie - I disagree in the entirety of 323. Failing to come to good conclusions makes me think Postie is acting in bad faith. Overall I feel confident in reading Postie.

Sauce - he's like one of those sirens corner stores use to stop children from loitering except I'm too old to hear this shit.

jumbled mess because while I had an idea of my overall opinion of everyone their position and the points I was trying to make were laced up as i jumped between each ascending note

@NSG

Why the question of "who are my townreads?" in particular?

@LQ

What's up with posts 92 and 308?

[Lycanfire]

Llamarble if I called the scumteam as Marquis+ActionDan+CES what would be your opinion?

[Lycanfire]

Nothing concrete yet. I want Llamarble's opinion. I'm still trying to reconcile my primary scumreads (i.e. only one of you or LQ). I think Postie is more town for reasons, some questions I have to respond to, others I think are inane and I will be ignoring. I have a few thoughts, but two/all three of those jumped out at me in a way I usually see into other dimensions to find scum. Will explain everything.

[Lycanfire]

Llamarble if I called the scumteam as Marquis+ActionDan+CES what would be your opinion?

I don't see anything wrong with these choices, particularly CES + AD I can believe. CES is going after Marquis with a decent amount of energy, but not enough to rule out the pairing.

You didn't really need to make 5 posts just to make like one interesting point, 'marble. Come on, if you're going to unvote lurkerscum, please be a good example in a different way. Also, I suggest you ask fferyllt about Marquis.

3) again it's literally been a day. i know i didn't post when i said i would (oh no someone didn't keep their word on ms.net) but like. come on. it's not 2005. lurking isn't a scumtell (if anything the scum meta is spamposting but i'll cut off because i'm not sure if that applies here yet). town has just as much motivation to not want to deal with things. case in point i pretty much played overwatch all last night because i really didn't feel like coming into d1 scumreads/votes on me and trying to defend myself.

I see the same mechanisms protecting you as I'm used to seeing, so I care very little about your generalities about the current meta. I do like how you point out that it should barely count as lurking in a few different ways only to undercut it by admitting you lurked intentionally.

Is that supposed to excuse your earlier scummitude

?

LQ still looks town to me. Lots of posts I've glossed over admittedly and I probably could use to recheck my read there,

but I don't see the scummitude others do

.

None of Marquis' recent posts look to me as anything other than null, and certainly not giving me town vibes for the language, emotion or any content within as suggested by Gamma. In fact the time spent making those posts could have been used to read the thread, as I'm sure Marquis is aware.

Tchill lack of anything not Postie related after he thought certain posts of hers looked townie is now a concern of mine. That said recognizing that at least some of her posts have merit to them is an encouraging sign and I maintain previous to that his thought processes didn't strike me as particularly scummy.

I still don't know where CES stands in his reads this game and don't know why he thought Marquis was scummy to begin with earlier before the lurking.

I still don't know where CES stands in his reads this game and don't know why he thought Marquis was scummy to begin with earlier before the lurking.

Yeah, things aren't really going quite as planned

; I thought things would develop more helpfully. The main reasons I found Marquis scummy very early on were 1) his general awkward tone early on and 2) the whole "representative" affectation. I think Signs and Void from last Team Mafia is pretty important context here - his early posts here feel really similar. I think both of those things are more significant than his lurking although his lurking has also felt scum-motivated (but I'd be more hard-pressed to explain the nuts and bolts of that feeling).

[Lycanfire]

q&a period

if i miss your question it was probably stupid

BLANKET ANSWER

"6 suspects" / "no CES" in post 430.

Nobody gets upset with someone that gives 11 towns 2 nulls in a mini. They might get upset with which reads fall onto certain people. Saying I can't find >3 people scummy at any given time is disingenuous. I placed a big-ass disclaimer at the beginning of my post that I didn't care about calling a team, working with a theory, and that I was going to put town or scum on everyone. Deal with it. Regarding the lack of CES, if you look closely I spell out "Vote CES" if you apply the Fibonacci sequence to every paragraph.

.... No, seriously, CES is clearly on my mind when I put Tchill in scum territory just for discounting the possibilities of CES. My first point was something I couldn't make heads or tails of, so he landed there purely as a result of my second point. All I was doing was making reads off of interesting developments within 3-4 pages. Deal with it.

Lycan, in your 225, do you not think your conclusion that CES is opportunistic scum jumping on Llmarble is example of what you described as "feely bullshit" since it seems to me you don't have a reasonable basis to conclude either that Llmarble talked himself up to rile up scum or that CES voted him in reaction to it as CES hardly gave much of a reason for his Llmarble vote in the first place.

I come across nonsense posts like this that essentially boils down to, "well according to your methods, everything related to gathering reads/playing mafia/living life is pointless!" As if it's supposed to be some ultimate "gotcha". No. Nothing about this is real. I already said my first gut reaction was that I didn't like Llamarble's post. Not seeing past his behavior is CES' problem, not my own. I'm explicitly doing the opposite of using "feely bullshit". I'm reasoning a read. I'm the one who has put in the work to have a read. Llamarble's intent is irrelevant. I reason that 1) CES' vote is a result of Llamarable's previous posts. This is fact. 2) Despite not making comment on it, I don't see CES making this vote if Llamarble does not make post65. What he

does

vote Llamarble for is nothing worth pushing. CES voted Llamarble because he thought it was a good vote. I don't see the town motivation for anyone that reads past their initial gut feeling.

Not only that, but in 225 he just assumed Llama was doing a slayers gambit of some sort as opposed to just thinking Llama is firing from the hip (which can come from Town and Scum alike), which IIRC Llama neither confirms nor denies which makes his vote on ECS superflux.

1. Are you saying I'm scum for disagreeing with you? If so, please tell me why your opinions are so self-evidently correct that I couldn't possibly see things differently?

Read post

Why no conclusion?

I... posted the conclusion first?

I would like to thank everyone that asked me stupid questions and ones they did not expect answers to. It's only as a result of your effort that the shining beacons of content in this post become more real.

[Lycanfire]

Thoughts

EddieFenix/Sauce is not s/s - I don't think wolves talk like 421 425.

Maybe

421 is in-thread comm, but I feel the increasing feeling of getting brain damage every time I read Sauce's posts, moreso than trying to read the anagrams in Schadd's recent Mini.

Dunnstral/Postie are weirdly aligned at the time of writing 427

Marquis/LQ is not s/s - 458

EddieFenix/Gamma likely not s/s - 506

Gamma/ActionDan is not s/s - 522

Reservation-

Gamma's spoilered defense of Eddie in 395 was shit.

My guess is that you either didn't see the pattern that Marquis saw themselves, or you didn't think I saw that post by North, or you thought I would be too embarrassed to admit that I didn't see the pattern there. I think it's the later.

This is Marqu trying to get the game going IMO

Asking again what you meant by 308.

His provided reads on not even half the players in the game goes after isolated incidence instead of looking at the whole picture regarding the reads he gave where he said most about them. It's important to note that these are the more active players on average so the fact he goes after isolated incidents instead of a broader picture of those slots shows he's either giving low effort for this competition or he is Scum.

...

His question to me

I don't think is a legit way to sort me

considering he's already given a SR on me, which makes me think he is pushing an agenda instead of actually sorting people. It's also unclear who he SRs and who he TRs because under Scum

you have 6 players, which is far too many to be SRing

, which makes me think he is intentionally trying to paint a lot of people as Scum so he can't get blamed for voting someone later in D1 whom he already game a SR on.

Lycan uses a lot of colorful wording, but there is a disconnect between what he is representing with enough solid backing that I think he is just creating stories for motivation instead of looking at all possibilities.

Why do you think I do not intend to sort you when I'm offering twice the number as scum as scumreads? Are you special?

Who are you talking to in this (434) post, and what are you trying to say?

What about my wording is interesting?

Marquis I'd like you to ISO Eddie and tell me what you think. See 388, 390, and 402 for why I think he's scum.

And since you scumread Gamma, see 331/332/335 for why I think he's town.

Context: Marquis asks to be pointed in a direction. Receives groans. Postie pops by and doesn't waste an opportunity to promote her petread like some kind of psychotic Jehovah's Witness. I would say Postie's conviction here is town. The main problem with Postie is that her reads are bad- the push on Eddie has some substance (sure pushing someone that makes that townbloc comment and never relenting is cool), but she later makes a weirdo post which amounts to "Eddie has no direction, something something super secret reads are scum" in 469. Eddie never admits to having a super secret read, but I'm puzzled how that would be a scumpush.

Ok, let's unite forces, Liquety.
VOTE: Chill

Meanwhile you can figure out why even though ppl expressed sympathy with my attacks on you the same ppl don't hesitate to follow your vote on Chill as opposed to helping me attack Cogito.

What reservations did you have about CES? Want to come back on board?

LQ is a very good scum candidate too. Those 3/15 odds aren't looking so bad anymore.
I liked Lycan's big post; puts him in the area of "nothing particularly difficult to fake yet but moving in a good direction" with NSG.

The reasons people find you scummy aren't the tells you anticipated? The horror! Oh and the guy making genuine effort to read you (and the rest of the game) is scum, because that follows.

Is the latter comment referring to Shea?

---

I'm theorizing that CES and ActionDan are scum together: Marquis a possible third. See a few posts previous in 602 where I (apparently, too subtly) point out what I believe to be in-thread communication between the two of them. ActionDan in particular has defended Marquis twice over (Shea has done the same thing, also twice) while CES is on the opposite side of the argument. I'm suggesting the word choice in 410 and 520 is a word defined in pre-game* to focus the teams' attention on a serious push. ActionDan's reciprocation in 520 amounts to "back off of Marquis, CES". See my bolded segments. CES picks up the code and returns soon after in 526 stating that things aren't going according to plan, and weakly tries to get ActionDan on board, to which Dan expresses meek interest in exploring at some undetermined time in the future.

*yes my team is all-town, we know about pre-game communication was a thing because jjh asked shit for brains if pregame was 24 hours to do nothing, to which we were asked if we were all town, upon being told yes we were told that we sit around talking to ourselves for 24hr

tl;dr for

everybody else

I want you to sell me on your pet wagon and if you do so you're etching your name into the history books as someone who promoted a wagon over one on CES.

god bless

[Lycanfire]

I'm pretty sure all of Team Mafia has scum daytalk, bud.

That's my mistake.

No intentions of taking some aggression here and seeing what bites?

None of this is true.

There's only one real answer to my original argument if you're scum.

These posts are a real waste of energy. Who's scum?

--

Davsto catchup so far is townie

Explain like I'm five.

Gamma wasn't acting human in 256. Your 323 amounts to "there is no suspicious activity here, fellow humans!" It isn't that I disagree with you that makes that post scummy, it's that it's a genuine shit post.

I'm not sure how to explain the things you're confused by any better than I already have, and you seem to be ignoring 90% of my reasons for scumreading Eddie in favour of nitpicking this one thing. I don't know what else to say to you because this is such an astronomically skewed interpretation of events. I don't think we're going to mesh well this game.

I've read your entire case on Eddie. I'm telling you that the premise of your original push was all right, but you've since locked yourself into a tunnel. See my last point in 606. You're not making much sense by the tail end of your push. You're welcome to start making more sense if you want a serious wagon to get going.

@lycanfire 606: I was engaging ef,not defending him. shade noted though.

Hold the phone. It was a pure defense of Eddie in that post. Maybe nobody else bothered to open the spoiler (why are people doing this? clip your fucking quotes and make enough sense the first time around) but you essentially said he blank votes you and ended up blaming Shea for Eddie's behavior. Don't dish it if you can't take it.

I can say I really don't like your 'holier than thou' attitude.

For the first question, you are implying that your Scum reads are the only ones you plan on sorting? This means you would not be reevaluating your Town reads, which I think is an incorrect way to approach the game.

Who said anything about townreads? This is about my supposedly permanent 6 player scum pool. Seems fitting, there's a lot of shit in stagnant water.

I am not talking to you in post 434, I am talking to Town to see what they have to say about it.

How many times did you rewrite the original post?

It's more that your wording paints a picture that ends up giving more emphasis to points that are not as well substantiated. In other words, I am saying your words are charismatic and your words are stronger than the evidence of what you are actually saying.

It's a bird! It's a plane! No, it's

The

Balki

Attack!

Your perceived threat of my posts says more about you than it says about me.

Difficult to read players that I don't have any special reason to believe are town
Postie - paranoid about this one especially because "wait why are we townreading this player" happens a lot with scum
CES

...

Serious D1 Lynch Options:
Marquis
Eddie

AD
LQ
Tchill

How are you rationalizing the current wagons?

Eddie, GE, why aren't you voting?

Because I originally was voting GE, after a back and forth, I unvoted them. I'm also waiting for fresh blood/meat to get in here to sort some of those damn null spots I have in my reads. Marathon, CES.

What fresh blood? Who do you want to have post? Call them out.

---

Marquis catchup acceptable for now, must make a vote before EoD.

Unvote, vote: Postie

What point were you trying to make in your previous post exactly?

Clipping the fuck out of Sauce's post because the less I let it influence me the better I can perform. Most notably from this post and in the two that follow Sauce drops their posting gimmick.

Yes, currently we have 11/15 players (including yourself!) not voting for someone useful.

VOTE: Tchill

I still feel best about CES+Dan.

[Lycanfire]

When I asked you how you were rationalizing the current wagons I mainly meant how you are able to explain the absence of a counterwagon. When I voted Tchill I expected a few things- Tchill making a post before the heat death if the universe, a counterwagon, a lolhammer, usual things like that. I expressed uncertainty because your own reads list has only steadily launched CES into scumspace, but I feel you lack enthusiam to vote him.

Assuming Tchill is scum, I had no problems with the wagon comp, but if anything I'm less worried about the prospects of an all-town town lynch than voting the wrong person for the wrong reasons, the latter of which is being presented with an absence of choice.

Saying that CES is an unworkable or claiming there is a world he deserves to live to lylo is ridiculous to me. I'm barely able to stay awake and managed to weave through enough noise to see that rather than claim to find scum like I asked him to he walked in and like a magician pulled out two recent posts and whispered scum like some kind of rapist. He doesn't deserve some self resolving pass when he is past his expiration date.

What is your biggest concern Llamarble?

[Lycanfire]

[Lycanfire]

Eddie is lynchbait. Saying he is completely different from TBD is flat out wrong. He did the same meaningless "you haven't answered my question" gimmick there as scum.

Dunnstral is also walking bait. Scum!Dunn is incapable of original thought.

[Lycanfire]

ok yeah what part of my post to Eddie says I'm blaming Shea for anything Eddie did?

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

@Lycan: Yes I do. Thank you for your explanation.

This vote kinda feels like he's jumping me, but I won't press it since I can also see that it came right after TSQ presented a smoking gun of sorts on me.

[Lycanfire]

Don't worry postie if tchill townflip.and you eat NK I shall grant Eddie 754 scum points

Pefit
I think if you are in one game with tchill where he is posting and one where he is not, original thought is not required to make case against him. Don't overcred dunn for that specifically. However overall I find him alright anyway.
Is the gimmick scum specific?
Also by bait do you mean these players are town?

Does it matter? Dan is saying Eddie is nothing like TBD. I picked up pretty quickly that Eddie isn't all that different, besides trying to attract more attention.

Dunnstral improved his vote, had a reason for it, asked pointed questions in 796 and 806. He is a complete lurksack these days regardless of alignment, but he doesn't make strong pushes or helps town the way he is in this game when he rolls scum.

Yes they are both likely town.

[Lycanfire]

I have a real dilemma here. I have this sofa - it's a really big one, and I need six people to help me lift it.

Also, the sofa is CES' head.

VOTE: CES

[Lycanfire]

i think i'm still at postie, actiondan, ranmaru definitely town, quick and gamma questionably town, cogito ergo sum and lycanfire scumreads (although my teammates disagree on lycan).

If you are town why do you hesitate in making a vote and seeing what bites?

Lycan scumread – my lycan scumread initially started because i got majorly pinged that his reads were fabricated. he entered the thread making a point and a vote that were entirely predicated on a hard llamarble townread, and then later on in his readslist he had llamarble as null. other people seemed to townread him for the one post where that happened, but i never saw anything there. in fact, i think it's the kind of post where i myself would be inclined to make a mistake in townreading it. nothing he's posted since then has changed that or really caused me to reconsider.

I hard townread Llamarble early, put him in scum over 1/1 post in a set period of time-actually, that read was mainly a "I'm watching you" post directed to him because he was not meeting my expectations of what I thought town!Llamarble was (unless you really think Llamarble talking about himself

again

was a legitimate scumread out of me.) Llamarble became serious, so I dropped the matter. If you're having trouble understanding the townreads on me, it's because I spoke directly to Llamarble in-thread, he saw I could push him, he shrugged it off and when I did not push him, hard townread me for the rest of the day.

If my reads seemed "fabricated" to you it is only because you decided to ignore how I specifically threw out reads based on four pages in mostly-isolation (except when they were referencing previous material). You got upset about it and tried to lord some kind of inconsistency on my read on Llamarble which I ignored and repeated what my motives were.

Cogito ergo sum – this started because ces really just wasn't doing anything. he was pretty much one-note pushing marquis for a comparison to the 2015 team mafia white flag game where marquis was scum, and he was kind of obtuse in answering my questions. Granted, that doesn't make someone scum, but as i've already described the switch from thinking the tchill wagon was no better than random to scumreading screen for the replace in seems scummy to me.

What started?

[Lycanfire]

Lycan

: Why are you voting CES without interacting with him, nor casing him? Why aren't you pushing for his lynch

Mainly hesitation to write off the last few pages as TvT (is it just noise, am I missing anything). Lack of time to fully justify my reads. Ask me again later about that.

CES/Dan are obvscum. Whenever I push CES some scumfuck like Dan or NSG comes out to try to discredit me. Not building consensus on that worries me about where the third is, but maybe this is a giant shitstorm of noise.

And for all your emotion and over-the-top tone re: your supposed scumread on me, it's incredibly difficult to believe it's genuine when this read came from mastina. In other words I flat out don't believe the read on me is genuinely that strong when you only even switched focus to me because of one of mastina's random-ass "readslist"s. It feels way more like you know you have to stick to me as an only viable alternative to your mislynch... other than your scumpartner LQ.

Why are people talking so much about teams at this point. I mean I know why - because people have done it in this game and gotten away with it so people just keep doing it.

Stop, it's not helpful.

This is true, but at the same time three people are trying to infuence the town. In this moment three different people are steering the town with an anti-town agenda. Looking at one person a day is how every game of mafia has been lost for town.

[Lycanfire]

1. I asked to get a setup reviewed that I've been working on for a month.
2. I did some back and forth with my reviewer.
(which is more fun than being ignored in this game)
3. Did I mention this game is shit? no okay
4. You're expletive town. 2/2 people on my team that care enough about this game agree. (like, flat-out, scum don't make 1631 )
5. Your global reads don't help anybody. Form better reads about this game.

My performance this game has been underwhelming because the people I want to push don't want to play, then the town wants to go vote each other so I get to make a post that amounts to "can we lynch CES rather than town" only to get passed by. I'm not a person that townhunts, or makes cases for people being town, because I always hold a giant sack of suspicion and allowing myself to get blinded by a townread (like people were with Sakura Hana in PPMIII) is a weakness. I go off on my merry way and collect towns as it makes sense to with regards to where I am in the game state.

See my reads on Eddie and Dunnstral. I didn't like how Dan was justifying Eddie as town, as Eddie was playing

pretty damn similarly

, and I was establishing his read was being made in bad faith. Dan's alternative to scum!Gamma is Dunnstral, and having no problems with Dunnstral whatsoever I pressed Dan to see what other name he would divine or if he was willing to commit to Gamma. Based on his post 927, who he considers to be scum/town, and players he is engaging like townies, after my rebuke in in 932, does scum!Dan have anywhere to go? Apparently not. His last content post puts Marquis/CES/Screenplay in his crosshairs. The former two he had engaged as town for all of the game, the latter being the handpicked lynch of CES. Dunnstral/Gamma 404. Scaredshitlessscum.

And on my read on Eddie, which is so relevant to you Ran, it's that he has dogshit reads with no reasons for them, but because he lined himself up in the crosshairs I thought he was town. He's subverting that now by being terse. Is he the third? If so, he's basically playing team captain here by being the only person to post by visually face tanking every other casepost while the other two want him dead to rights. I'd say he isn't, because we had two paradigms day 1: CES wants Marquis, AD doesn't want Marquis. Eddie? Fuck it, Marquis is null until SoD2, where he becomes scum for some lame reason. There's no coordination there. The third is more likely a lurksack like NSG.

Please do ISO Lycan. Then look at his votes. Then look at how he is pushing his scum reads and tell me what you think about it.

Like what the fuck is wrong with my votes anyway?

Shea

: On day 1 I asked you for your thoughts on Davsto and I had to repeat myself before you actually responded to me. I was thinking since you and I disagreed on reads, being the most top town reads, you would be interested in asking me to reconsider any reads, like you did with Llama. Today you never

initiated

a conversation with me, your strongest town read. So my question is this: Why haven't you made the initiative to ask? Of course if

I

ask you to talk reads, you'll talk, I am not disputing that. Why don't you agree on Lycan, do tell. Why did you ignore LQ's #434, and attack him a few minutes later? Why did you never comment on LQ's #434. I also did not like your treatment of Gamma on a re-read. I want an updated full reads list from you with reasons. I felt that you should have considered LQ before simply voting Eddie this phase. I expected your assistance on LQ so it was odd that you preferred to support the Eddie wagon instead at the time.

This is a pr good post because seeing Shea go so ham on LQ afterwards made me feel like a scumfuck. I did pretty much the exact same in Darkest Dungeon but my intentions were meant to be good by getting my highest tr going instead of defending someone that isn't in the game. I'm glad you picked up on this and all but is the conclusion (Shea and I are scum) really justified here? Isn't it SvT, like somehow I felt out to manipulate Shea... Or an alternate universe where a fire is fanned and LQ gets lynched around the time he started getting defeatist about that eventuality? I feel like you saw something weird and decided to make sense of it but really just glossed over the easiest conclusion that Shea held back when he shouldn't have and let it loose when it was pointed out he was justified in doing something besides playing D for Reckoner.

Anywho here's where I stand on LQ

@Marble, I've got Screen in my sights for today. However, from the AtE and flailing going on, I'm willing to let the case write itself right now and give screen more time(and rope essentially) to hang themselves with it. If anything, I'm a patient man.

I want to point out the dissonance in this. He implies that he strongly thinks Srceen is scum, but then says he wants to give him more time and isn't going to vote or push there.
Like, Eddie in this post straight-up, literally, says that he wants this lynch but wants it while sitting back and letting it play out without his involvement.

I didn't know it was possible to play exclusively to scum wincon so hard and not be obvscum.

Like jesus christ guys this isn't rocket science

And if I had a nickel for everytime Llama changed their scum reads I would probably have several dollars by now.

I think it's Scummy af for you to try and use Llama's death to say Eddie is Scum. Llama was widely widely TR. That is why Llama was probably killed, not because of who Llama went after.

Dudes town despite being bad day 1. You just have to let these things happen.

Lycan

: Why are you voting CES without interacting with him, nor casing him? Why aren't you pushing for his lynch? How is your reads list looking like now?

It's flat out mean spirited to be the loudest player in the game and berate me for having damn near every post in some way about CES and simply not trying hard enough, or not interacting with somebody that upon being prompted to say who is scum, does total bomb posts like 728 and 870 that are really only made to serve a purpose after he's dead to fuck with people. Or how he made a post that suggested Postie+Myself the moment Llamarble expressed uncertainty in Postie, then voted Postie, and when I asked him with a shit-eating grin to put it on paper that he was transparently was trying to push an angle of Postie and myself he ignored me.

See:

My subconscious is really concerned about Postie.

What do you think of #446? Relevant context: none of those questions have received answers.

Unvote, vote: Postie

What point were you trying to make in your previous post exactly?

Instead of have you read into CES' posts as well as I have I get the headache inducing task of going through several pages of TvTs and either lead the town to the promised land or be a false prophet. My life would be a lot easier if you would stop having shitty reads and lynch obvious scum.

Okay that readslist

town: everyone not listed below this game is pretty easy

i don't care about rc tier: postie seriously fucking stop it

maybe scum: eddie, nsg
(when postie was gungho for eddie, Dan was putting a foot down on that one. Eddie is a Marquis voter, so is CES. Dan was/who the fuck knows anymore anti-Marquis, but Marquis is lynchbait so having differing opinions is good. 660 is pretty tame. ces shading someone is probably the easiest way to up someone's towncred. like someone getting a piece of trash thrown at them by a monkey at the zoo, you don't even feel bad about it, because they totally just got pelted with trash by a monkey.)
game is solved here: ces, dan

shilling my future mini theme game btw, theme is pubg. come for the headshots, stay for the chicken dinner. [disclaimer: not in queue, in review stage.]

[Lycanfire]

And on my read on Eddie, which is so relevant to you Ran, it's that he has dogshit reads with no reasons for them, but because he lined himself up in the crosshairs I thought he was town. He's subverting that now by being terse. Is he the third? If so, he's basically playing team captain here by being the only person to post by visually face tanking every other casepost while the other two want him dead to rights.

yeah i guess dan doesn't want eddie at all i have no idea who i was thinking of when i said this, prob marquis by eod1.

[Lycanfire]

Ngl i did wagon analysis on the basis that the three wagons of the day were trendy and pointless but it is only harming my reads atm will post it when i have more time

[Lycanfire]

Brain is a bit full of fuck right now

Once already this morning I was phone posting something really good. I realized it didn't mesh with the conclusions I thought I was coming to. Tonight I made my thoughts more coherent and let my analysis take me to my conclusions. I'm happier than when I started, but I'd like to do some quid pro quo with Ran first.

Lycanfire, you had LQ as a scum read Day 1. When and why did that change?

Pretty much the circumstances of how he took Shea's pressure mixed in with a bit of Llamarble's. It culminated in posts like

It seems that I am a player who people seem somewhat polarized on. Given this, It might actually benefit Town if I am lynched, but then that takes away all my power to have an influence on the game based on my play and I think I can give Town a better chance at winning if I am not lynched. That said, if people remain to have polarizing views of me, then it's likely I will be able to stay in the game for a while because Scum will not NK someone they think they might be able to lynch. Given this, it puts a lot of pressure on me for my reads to be good and to produce good content. Most of this pressure is self induced because last time I survived to end game I used a method to try and solve the game that I put too much trust in and it ended up with me having a few of bad reads so I don't want to have another poor performance where I survive to late game to have a poor influence on helping my team win the game.

This is before Llamarble's game predict post where he began treating himself as already lynched. He's basically just egging it on.

And I did really like that sod post I quoted before-

@Marble, I've got Screen in my sights for today. However, from the AtE and flailing going on, I'm willing to let the case write itself right now and give screen more time(and rope essentially) to hang themselves with it. If anything, I'm a patient man.

I want to point out the dissonance in this. He implies that he strongly thinks Srceen is scum, but then says he wants to give him more time and isn't going to vote or push there.
Like, Eddie in this post straight-up, literally, says that he wants this lynch but wants it while sitting back and letting it play out without his involvement.

I didn't know it was possible to play exclusively to scum wincon so hard and not be obvscum.

Like jesus christ guys this isn't rocket science

And if I had a nickel for everytime Llama changed their scum reads I would probably have several dollars by now.

I think it's Scummy af for you to try and use Llama's death to say Eddie is Scum. Llama was widely widely TR. That is why Llama was probably killed, not because of who Llama went after.

Scum love starting shit with NKs. NKA might be under-used, but it's also poorly used, and if it's a one liner at sod, it's not even analysis, it's just shit. Why does scum!LQ make this post-no, here's a better question. Why does scum!LQ make that post, at that time? If someone wants to earn towncred by making a voice of reason post, they can still let the fans be flamed by somebody else. Contributing at that moment in time was about as towniest as it was going to get-he could have done so later, and let people get tangled in bias, or let something catch on fire. Nope, it's time to proceed with day. Thank god.

I'd like to ask you: can you explain your read on Gamma?

For everyone else: get rid of your fucking null reads. If you find someone town for X and scum for Y say it. You might not be the only one. You might be the only one, and nobody noticed X or Y. It doesn't matter if you're wrong, or hurt somebodys feelings. If some ill-fated push happens as a result, it won't be just because of you, so go ahead and reach for the stars, even if they're made of shit.

[Lycanfire]

Something I need to point out in LQ vs Postie is that my Postie read (the "fuck rc tier") basically means: the more we've normalized RC's existence in this game, the more open Postie has been in letting him influence the game by proxy. Prior to this there was some doubt over whether he was playing puppeteer or not. My main concern is my ability to read Postie is not as good as my ability to read RC.

I feel like LQ was in part complicit in this a lot like other people were

@Postie, what is RC's read on me?

I really don't know what result you expected to have happen as a result of asking this if anything besides having RC enter the thread.

[Lycanfire]

Okay those wagonomics. So like I said I was going into it with my own conclusion, and felt really good about it until I noted Eddie had two peaks at 5 (Marquis & CES). Neither were concurrent. Additionally, in both counterwagons, Gamma was a dubious supporter of both.

-The basic thesis is that at start of day, Eddie, Marquis LQ had morale for wagons against them. This has little to do with D1. I find this important because it defines people who are okay to wagon.
-Marquis appeared as a counter to Eddie. Ranmaru was the first voter, shifted gears, then was re-voted by Eddie. He peaked at three with Eddie, Gamma and CES all providing shit reasons ranging from it being sure scum, to a blind sheep vote of the former, to it "being the time" to lynch him.
-Ranmaru and LQ crossvote, Marquis votes Eddie and the wagon collapses
-Gamma votes LQ
-Marquis votes LQ
-CES votes Eddie

I don't think this disproves anything like CES-Dan-NSG. I'm capable of seeing trends, and each time I accused CES, Dan would come out and scumread me (1) or NSG would (twice). If any of these flip scum, I'm pretty sure the game is solved. I do find it hard to shake the immediate nature of the CES vote onto Eddie, which is basically aimed at Marquis for leaving. Up until I read into the game the Eddie wagon looked like Worst Damn Thing™ due to the cherry on top, but I do actually see a reason for the CES vote, and without observing any coherant plan launched on the Eddie wagon, I'm pretty comfortable with it right now. The LQ wagon on the other hand is poop.

okay so if you hate wall posts just stop reading here and skip to the next post or smth

(The paradigms "mafia plan" and "team of 3" have been bothering me all game day which is why I had a very much wait-and-see approach with CES, because my only rationalization was that the entire team was just lurking out.)

Continuing that thought, to go along with my "trendy wagons" theory, without trying to shoehorn myself into a conclusion.

I noted who was making which player socially acceptable to push since sod. Most of this was Postie on Eddie, and LQ on Postie. Here's the full results if anyone cares. What I consider to be shade might not be yours, so if you don't like it, go fuck yourself.

lq postie(8) eddie(2) marq (1) gamma(1) dav(1) ran(1)
postie eddie(9) ran(1) shea(1)
ranmaru marquis(4) dan(1) postie(2) eddie(4) lq(4)
eddie lq(1) ces(1) ran(5) marq(3)
dun postie(1)
dav lq(1)

I considered this period to be over around this post, because afterwards we moved into Davsto's meta case on Eddie.

I'm thinking the team is [LQ > Eddie > Marquis].

LQ

:
LQ's post is force in his #888. LQ tries to shade my replace in his #829 Shea asked him if he why he didn't think my catchup was genuine, and responds saying that he laughed at me misrepresenting him, and fence sits his read on me. Yet, this has nothing to do with his point that I had no 'unique' reads. Seems like a slight back track of his original position. LQ throws shade at Screen in his #1058, and while null scum reading him in his #999. Yet, LQ doesn't join the wagon on Screen, he avoids it while poking at him. He then votes Postie, who he read as null in his #999, but has not stated a read change nor did he have any progression. My assumption is that he saw my case on her, and took the opportunity to place his vote on Postie to A) Draw associative between her and him, and B) To stay off the ScreenTOWN wagon. LQ's #1299 shows that he prefers to muddy the connection between himself and Postie, to drag her down in his eventual lynch.

Eddie

:
Eddie's #1315 Shows he scumreads CES for hammering. Then, he votes Marquis in his #1320 while scumreading myself for no reason at all. In his #1336 he states I'm trying to draw off pressure from Postie (LQ v Postie), which contradicts his initial read of CES MARQ RAN. It shows that he has no genuine reads here, and is applying the same tactic LQ is, muddying his connection with myself to drag me down in his eventual lynch.

Marquis

:
Marquis enters voting North following Postie, with weak reasoning in his #24. This is in response to Postie asking why he voted North, not a good response. Marquis states he is having a hard time getting into the game in his#381 but lurks for quite a bit and doesn't try to get back into it, which he admits to in #631 . He talks about who is scum on his wagon, LQ in his #455. He is sidelining while not really pushing anything, like in his #877 and then unvotes in his #879 and nothing else. He has progression for LQ but he never follows up with it. In general, he seems more interested in getting a good position in town, fails and gets wagoned, and then lurks out to survive and dodge the lynch. Then he comes in late with with 1226 voting LQ. It is badly timed, it does not seem genuine.

LQ and Eddie are both trying to muddy connections between universal town reads, since they seem to have no other option, or little options available to them. Today, we lynch either LQ or Eddie. Then the other the next day.

Ran essentially started the Marquis fire, but in my mind it isn't until Eddie's / Mastina's godread on Marquis that it became a "wagon" and hit the peak of 3. By this time, Ran had moved on. I feel it is pretty notable that in one post Ranmaru pointed at all three wagons of the day. If there was any deeper meaning to this post, I'd like to know it.

This is why I asked Ranmaru for their Gamma read: I actually like CES' read on Gamma better than Ranmaru's read. Considering I had been transparently been scumreading/townreading these players, we either need to get on the same page, or there's gonna be a lynch Ranmaru is going to disagree with down the line.

I'm going to VOTE: Eddie, because if peoples' reads are bad, it's because they're probably scum. He's had two counters to himself, both supported by Gamma. He's had every opportunity in the world to stick to CES, or not vote for lynchbait. I can be persuaded onto Gamma or put back on the true path of saying CES is scum all day. This is the only theory I can give beyond say everything is a giant TvT.

Who the third-anyone who pushed Eddie counters (Marq, Dav, Ran) or a lurksack. I'm happy to talk about this I guess.

[Lycanfire]

tldr

-Eddie doesn't have good reasons for his beliefs
-Gamma doesn't have good reasons for Eddie's beliefs
-Gamma countered Eddie twice
-Wagons of the day have been Eddie/LQ/Marquis. They were made acceptable by Postie and Ranmaru respectively.
-I can only stand on my head rationalizing tvts for so long before I start to see trends that might not be suspicious in nature. Send help.

[Lycanfire]

So I think I should put my money where my mouth is, because people don't see to be liking my idea of making actions to produce content over most everything else, so I am going here:

VOTE: Marquis

Listen here you punk you just shit on hours of work and drinks with this vote

[Lycanfire]

So like the main issue I see with Lycan is hypocrisy. A fabulous example is him saying early in the game saying he won't take a team and run with it yet he's doing that -right now-. Another issue is him saying people ten to not be willing to reconsider their reads leading to "feely bullshit", which I somewhat see in his posts? Real convenient he left out any definition of what "feely bullshit" means

I said I wasn't running with a team in that single post where I gave 6 scumreads. It was to emphasize I was doing analysis in near isolation from where I left off to the end of LQ vs Shea. I never made any promises of

not

doing this... Is this only a problem for you when you're in the team, or when I say CES/Dan/NSG it's super cool?

As for the latter comment. I said people not reading PAST their first gut feeling.... Is feely bullshit. I don't know what you think you're doing with this post, but it isn't doing whatever you think it's doing. Make more sense.

No, that was to Lycanfire. Yet I'd like for you and Lycanfire to ISO her and look at my #1821, then tell me what you think.

That's essentially why I was calling her lurksack every post, because she's aware of it. She's not exactly trying to avert it either, but people also aren't keen on wagoning CES, so. if we're going into bad territory and nsg is scum, it isn't with Eddie. Does your scumteam change and if so why?

P-Edit: I hope you can take this post as a consolation. I am thinking GE could be Scum here after all. I will look over that PYP game I played with him and see what I can get.

Does scum!Gamma blindly agree with Eddie's godread on Marquis post?

[Lycanfire]

Lycanfire

: Meta. Gamma as scum doesn't really have interest in posting, from what I have seen. Gamma here has been saying sensible things and putting in work. His paranoia of me earlier Day 2 was also townie, not something I'd expect from scum him. Earlier you said that my conclusion on Shea was wrong (SvS) so I want to know, how did that conclusion affect your read on Shea and why?

If you want a better answer, you need to give me a better question. Of course I'm going to tell you the interaction you saw wasn't SvS. I was pretty glad you saw how immediately Shea went onto LQ, because I definitely had a moment of "wow I wish I was a wolf right now" when he did that. So, I feel like if you were to scrutinize anything out of the encounter it would be that I was being in some way manipulative, because if there was a real agenda under the surface, LQ would have been lynched yesterday. That makes it a SvT interaction if you want to push that angle, but you suggested we were both wolves, so that didn't happen.

How that affects my read on him... It made him town? Shea's posting was pretty flawed, going back and forth from saying someone is scum to treating them as halfway town, and defending Reck. I feel like this is all pretty consistent in someone triple guessing their reads, so when I pointed it out, having him go hard on LQ wasn't all that surprising.

I think what I need from Shea right now is some direction out of him. He's a patron of the Eddie wagon but briefly humored my read on CES and Dan. Meanwhile he dislikes Dunnstral while I like Dunnstral. We're now on the same wagon, but our reads feel pretty desynced.

[Lycanfire]

I think tier list shitposts should be left to the person that has Ranger on their team.

On [Eddie, Marquis, NSG] team, I want to mention that Marquis's #24 is weird and feels like he voted North to distance.

What does this have to do with Eddie?

[Lycanfire]

[Lycanfire]

It seems disingenuous to accuse me of not having a direction simply because the direction I have is different from yours, lycan.

I don't think it's unfair to ask if you're still for this.

My top scumread after Eddie is Dunnstral, based on PoE and the timing of his vote.

Explain this for me.

Alright then. I guess that a fair response and to be expected but I felt like it might get something out of you. Also more shade yippee! Like, I never said which team I took issue with. I took issue with CES-AD-nsg because it seems you're kinda ignoring evidence against that, as shown with you not taking in the fact scum have daytalk in this game and adjusting your AD-CES reads based on that.

Here's a thought: townies tend to think I'm scum (except lately, probably because I don't set out to be an outlier anymore). Scum shit themselves when they see my posts because they see a marble chiseled statue bleeding town and know God can't save them.

Dan said I was scum when I was pushing CES. I fell behind in the game and did a catch up post, during which CES didn't make a post. I explained my reads on everything transparently, poked where I thought I had to poke, encouraged behavior I thought was good and expressed others didn't hit the mark (Llamarble, Tchill) all at the same time.

This gives me a solid townread from Dan. Did he have bad reasons to townread me the second time around? Maybe not, but after the kneejerk of challenging my "reading past / feely bullshit" comment that was the pointy end of my case on CES, he went from apprehensive to

welcoming

of my presence. I was never challenged by Dan again. If I'm really so townie, maybe I ought to be directed onto who is scum and not given a pass for being a townie. I'm worth it, just saying.

So upon being told there is daytalk there was nothing for me to consider beyond that besides to shrug. That doesn't explain away the word choice used (I mean, it's not like they were saying "not town" which is a common complaint for people-they both used a made up word, "scumitude"). Doesn't explain the visible challenge CES and Dan had for one other over Marquis. It didn't explain why they townread each other. It didn't explain how CES could talk Dan into 'looking into it'. There's no evidence to the contrary of any of this: these things happened, and that's fact.

Saying there's evidence against in-thread communication is all fine and dandy, but the entire exercise isn't built on that premise. The final clincher was implying there was a nefarious purpose playing out in-thread (we should lynch marquis, no, we should not lynch marquis. no, we should definitely consider lynching marquis.) See it this way: I point out that two scumfucks are jogging together, and I say they were going to the supermarket. Anybody sneering at me saying I can't know that is severely missing the point that two scumfucks are jogging together. Also Marquis is a supermarket.

At this point I don't recall anytime you actually called me scum but I am reminded of something I wanted to ask you: if my "defense" of eddie was so bad, why don't you seem to suspect me for it? And shouldn't you also suspect eddie based on that?

I called you scum, but not with LQ (or Dan).

Previously I said you defended Eddie. You responded by saying it wasn't a defense of Eddie. You said you were engaging/questioning him, when about 27% of the quotes you responded to contained questions. 100% of those were meatballs. Your conclusion in the post in question... "My opinion of Eddie so far: he seems a bit off-color at points but it's nothing horrible." This is either a defense or a non-stance. Take your pick This conclusion was made after a long winded spoilered post, which you have to stop doing (also, don't vote in spoilers again), you provided commentary to Eddie's post, and after the second time someone "jumping you", you excused his blank vote on you and blamed it on Shea.

I never actually called you scum this post, I simply remarked that while I didn't think that a wolf doesn't talk to a wolf in 506, you were performing mental gymnastics to attribute blame for bad behavior that was not Shea's fault. Reading the Damn Thread™ is apparently shade. Not exactly the conclusion you ought to be coming to.

I have another grievance with the post where that was brought up: the "thoughts" feel like useless analysis. You kept saying "these aren't s v s" with out making any conclusions. Thinking about it just now it feels like leaving options open.

That's the opposite of leaving options open. That's putting real thoughts on paper and sending it through the post.

What exactly do I gain from this as scum?

If the answer is "looking townie", is this scumhunting?

Gamma:

how do you feel about being strung up with rope after an Eddie scumflip?

[Lycanfire]

You should

[Lycanfire]

Finally

[Lycanfire]

it wasn't a hammer

if lq genuinely thought he was hammering, we can throw out dunnstral lq and postie lq. still a small chance he was playing dumb. there's no way he misses the unvote with those teammates.

[Lycanfire]

as for why i've been gone i don't really have an answer, every time i go to start a post i either don't or i start something and then delete it for being too bad

Post your thoughts not Kmds. Even go reach for the shit stars. It's better than not posting.

[Lycanfire]

as for why i've been gone i don't really have an answer, every time i go to start a post i either don't or i start something and then delete it for being too bad

Post your thoughts not Kmds. Go reach for the shit stars. It's better than not posting.

wasn't sure what idiom to go with, ebwop

[Lycanfire]

When did your read on Dan change?

[Lycanfire]

When did your read on Dan change?

around the time that boonskiies flipped scum. i'm not sure how much more i can elaborate on it.

sure you can

you said dan preferred scum. he said that he prefers town. my team told me d1 that he prefers town. i noted to them that he posts more as town. if this has to do with dan picking scum, you can still talk about it.

was there anything else readable from him?

[Lycanfire]

Also still interested in KMD's notes.

you care too much about people that aren't in this game

[Lycanfire]

how do you feel about Dan

-waiting a day to townread ces
-scumreading marquis
-scumreading dunnstral
-voting dunnstral

[Lycanfire]

LQ, Gamma is locktown. He doesn't have enough viable partners. I'm convinced enough that everyone else on the site breaks and scumclaims after being pushed by me yet I don't have any real reason to suspect him anymore with Eddie gone. I can't rationalize his interactions with Eddie as anything besides town. For instance, scum have no business sticking their necks out with that spoiler post unless it served some kind of function. If it can't be solving (because it's suicidal), or distancing (because Eddie wasn't scum), was it muddying waters? There's more to the point ways to do that, and if someone does do that, they aren't spoiling their post. Scum

want

the town to see dirty laundry. This is counter-intuitive to harming postflip associations.

Besides, Rosa has been spewing Gamma town through meta since day 1. Something about being as easy to read as Zachstral the moment they get pushed. It's incidental, but Rosa and Ranmaru are right too.

Where my reads are today: it's day 3 and CES is voting Marquis again. I don't see the case on Marquis beyond peacing out on the early pressure. Just about everything he's said this game has been forgettable. Maybe he's flying under the radar, but I don't give a shit. He's here on day 3 selling the same promise as day 1, with no wagon data in hand, no associatives to be found, doesn't give a shit about interactions, or whether anyone else cares about his reads. Somehow like flies to shit Davsto, Postie, Gamma, Eddie, Dunnstral, LQ, and Ranmaru have all voted there at least once, but he never managed to get this great lynch.

Marquis: 60%

Eddie: 55%
GE: 30%
Postie: 25%
Dunn: 25%

ActionDan: 25%
northsidegal: 20%
LQ: 20%
Davsto: 15%
Lycan: 10%
TSQ: 10%
Ranmaru: 5%

Reminder that Gamma and Postie were shit reads he came up with EoD1 to justify not working with the town. Then when push comes to shove and lynchbait is being served he's okay with lending a hand, for some damn reason. Also Dunnstral is blatant town, but never mind any of that, or the fact that they vote Marquis with him. Definitely upper spectrum scum we're dealing with here.

EddieFenix(4) ~ LicketyQuickety, Postie, Thestatusquo, Davsto
Marquis(3) ~ EddieFenix, Gamma Emerald, Cogito Ergo Sum

like even with me and ran voting lq this is very obviously a dichotomy.

and i still don't know how people are even entertaining lynching me over lq or even eddie for that mastina series of wtf -
i'm explicitly scumreading everyone on my wagon other than CES because it's more easy to believe it stems from him holding a different mafia-the-game mindset and simply not understanding my play while still being town. and even then i know that's nothing i should be using as a townread basis which is why i'm purposely keeping him low priority for now.

About the only thing memorable from Marquis is that he consistently wanted Gamma/LQ with a sprinkle of NSG for most of the game while simultanously townreading CES' nonsense because geriatric.

Meanwhile despite scumreading nsg for never being around, he gave out a truckload of nulls for people for the same reason in 1481.

So is Marquis scum? I could see it, but how can CES know that with such certainty, certainty that suddenly melts away whenever the town locks the lynch for the day? There's never a threat of a tipping point or a push vote if any possibility of a Marquis lynch immediately collapses. That's sus as fuck.

Meanwhile there's Dan, who CES not only talked into scumreading Marquis by EoD1, but he himself was also actively distracting from his own petread. What is the point in any of that? And, sure enough Dan comes on board by the end of the day, probably to show some kind of progress in the game. Whatever.

So, Ranmaru, back to where my reads are today. They're back to the egg.



VOTE: CES

Lynch this shit with fire.

[Lycanfire]

also looks like it's answering the question "why did Postie survive N1?" rather than "why did Postie die N2?"). I feel like I need to re-read; the Postiekill especially worries me since it suggests scum were happier taking out a slightly scummy player with unknown reads than a more town-looking player with known reads. Davsto has just generally sounded town to me; that's one player I should probably take a slightly closer look at.

Don't think too hard about the NK now

[Lycanfire]

I could spew more reasons than you for Marquis, or why Postie died, so why are you the one pushing this shit? Zero effort.

[Lycanfire]

Preface: I know I'm ignoring questions I'm phoneposting

LQ you said you hated the Marquis wagon based on wagonomics yesterday. Can you explain your feelings on that for me?

Also, I feel like Dunnstral made a big vote off Marquis D1 onto Tchill. You townread Dunnstral, and TRed him yesterday simultanously as well. How do you reconcile both these game reads?

[Lycanfire]

Lycanfire, what is your read on Shea?

Town. I like how he's unwavering in saying Davsto is free to scumread him.

Why not? Lack of NKA is one of the reasons town don't do as well currently.

I was criticizing CES for

not

trying hard to justify the NK. I think doing it without coming to good conclusions is worse than not doing it at all.

--

I'll be plain here: I think Postie was killed because I PoEd LQ away from Postie yesterday. I also PoEd Gamma away from LQ in the past (see: that page they were both scumming it up in my catch up post). It's notable that LQ had gone on Gamma today.

Since day 2 LQ has been voted by: Marquis, Gamma, Ranmaru pretty consistently.

Gamma Emerald (3) ~ ActionDan, Cogito Ergo Sum, LicketyQuickety 853
LicketyQuickety (3) ~ Ranmaru, Srceenplay, Gamma Emerald 961

Postie also had conflict with Ranmaru, but that was precipitated on an Eddie scumslip. I don't know if Ranmaru and RC have history together, but I don't think Ranmaru kills Postie with an Eddie townflip, because he's doing pretty well to fool RC in that case. So if Ranmaru kills Postie, it's incidental, and has another underlying reason like removing a locktown on an LQ flip.

@Lycan,

I am a firm believer that no one is "lock Town" unless they are confirmed by the mod to be Town. Also, don't give me that "there are no associations with Ran" because we haven't got a red flip yet. So no, Ran is not clear. If you have a very good reason to say why he is Town, that is one thing, but to say he is lock Town is not something I can roll with.

Okay, also I have no idea what Ranmaru has to do with this! Gamma isn't being lynched though.

To lycan: "scum!dunn is incapable of original thought", he asks what original thought dunn has given this game and questions what dunn has helped town to do this game (in response to another thing lycan said)

Dunnstral's meta-case on Tchill seemed well intentioned. Something I'm not seeing come up in the simultaneous Dunnstral/Marquis reads is that nobody is mentioning how Dunnstral hopped off Marquis onto Tchill. Frankly, if Marquis is scum, he's getting bussed hard this game, and actually going through with it might be to the scum team's benefit. There's not much of a reason in hopping off there. Similarly if he's town, Dunnstral is hopping off one town wagon to another. Does he need to stick his neck out for that? I would argue that is actually counter-intuitive to lynching Tchill/Screenplay, because the result you'd expect is the result he received: Llamarble immediately suspected him for it, which weakened morale for lynching Tchill.

When Dunnstral is scum he will use other peoples talking points: when he's town he makes his own.

I have a question for you or whatever teammate is playing your slot today: why the fuck do you attack Dunnstral's meta case while simultaneously townreading Marquis?

Post something coherent.

If it was the first time I talked about wagonomics ITT, you might have a point, but it wasn't. I talked about not liking the Marquis wagon due to wagonomics. Also, from what you quoted, I thought I had mentioned something earlier than that about not liking the Chill wagon. You should go back and check that.

This was posted 40 posts after he agreed with Eddie on lynching Marquis / Dunnstral as a townread.

Tell Math I understand why he is seeing me teamed with CES. I haven't said a lot about him. My read for CES is mostly based on the fact that he isn't saying the same thing that everyone else is and he has new insights into players. I view this as really strong Pro-Town behavior because Scum rarely care about bringing in new insights into the game. Scum is primarily concerned with pushing and agenda and they don't need to provided new insights into the game to do that. That said, IF Marquis flips Town, and I highly doubt he will, then I would look at CES a lot closer.

Why not lynch CES first?

--

My problem: if I can do more work casing or gaining reads than other people, that's scummy as fuck. I'm seeing lazy reads (CES, NSG), lazy explanations (LQ). I'm willing to believe that Postie was a freebie kill on someone that can deliver a lynch, so we're going to lynch CES first instead of play guess the scum motive. God bless.

[Lycanfire]

I think you can answer my question easily. How are you reading Shea and why, Lycan? Simple question, just want what is at the top of your head.

I had a Big Ass Post™ ready this morning, hit ctrl+z instead of ctrl+x and lost a quote and response and couldn't fix things between the 600 tabs I had open. I ran out of time.

To me I had already answered / was popping by to get what I needed at the moment.

[Lycanfire]

jesus christ

[Lycanfire]

Well, I think I picked a good day to clean my closet because pretty much NOTHING has happened in this thread today.

Lycan, I see your post. I feel like... IDK what you are doing there.. why are you what looks like shading me when you had me as strong Town not too long ago? How did that read change?

Your unwavering TR of Dunnstral, mixed with random shadeposts on him, wagonomics post v Marquis, while supporting Marquis' lynch, while doing nothing to reconcile your reads. I don't feel like any of this is real. The Postie kill is just extra-skirt asked me if I'm the kill, and I told him Shea was because I'm a fuckwit that is letting other people influence me. The Postie kill has some kind of function (you did it, somebody wants me to think you did it.) I don't actually give a shit about why Postie died, or if you killed her. I'm here to smash this game and pull my team ahead from any tie break scenarios, so you get to deal with angry Lycan for the rest of the day.

Bus CES.

[Lycanfire]

Shady as fuck when you said something along the lines of finally working together. I don't think you were attempting to pocket him. If that's wolfy, it's because burying the hatchet in thread ties up loose ends so gymnastics don't need to be used to suddenly explain why teammates that shouldn't know that they're teammates are working together for no good reason. 2288 isn't an attempt to pocket you, because you already know your self-meta and that shouldn't convince you of anything.

Here's what I can do: After you give your case on Gamma, I can explain my Gamma Town Read, and link you to the games I have played with him. That's it. When I reference his meta, I'm talking about games I have played with him. (Hint: I've already referenced two of them)

Did you read the games you asked for, LQ? What did you gain from reading those games?

Nope. It's dependent on you giving your read (and most importantly why) first.

This is apprehensive, but you're both spammy and stuck in the thread together. "hey let's throw stuff at each other and see what happens" could be a fun game to play...

I've already answered your meta question, so you have already seen it. #2068

Now explain your Gamma Scum read.

Some kind of gotcha

So that would be the read.

Ran's defense of Gamma is completely unwarranted. He keeps saying it's a meta read, but he has yet to demonstrate how this game is any different that Gamma's other games. The reason I wanted people to look at Gamma's games is to show that Gamma is remarkably good at copying his Town meta. So then for Ran to just give these lame ass "reasons" for a "Meta Read" which isn't even a distinction between his Town and Scum games shows something funny is going on here.

LQ suddenly breaks from the exchange to talk to the town. A lot more calmly than he did day 1 when I had pressed him and suddenly switched between "he" and "you" a good three times in the same paragraph. Calm nerves.

That said, I asked Ran for his meta read on Gamma, and hopefully people see that Ran's meta read of Gamma is BS.

some kind of opposite of gotcha, no idea why this post is even made

[...] a lot of floundering

Like I said, I'll show you what I mean later. I think you are town, and think this is not helping us find actual scum. You are just being distracting right now. Reason for not casing Gamma as town: I didn't need to. I've already explained the gist. If you really need me to explain (which you have already asked questions about, and I have said I will get back to you on that) I shall. Your case isn't really a case. Also, don't spam. You are being anti-town.

This post puts a lot of attention on LQ when someone like Davsto or even Shea might jump on this.

I don't hide that I have misgivings towards you based on associations with LQ. I do think Dan would be a more likely third. Marquis is never scum on an LQ-CES team, because wolves like LQ don't talk to wolves like Marquis. I don't think scum LQ misses scum Dunnstral's vote swap D2 either. I'd prefer to bag CES first because that should hang the third out neatly and solve the game.

[Lycanfire]

nice of you to check in dan, sorry for the red pm

[Lycanfire]

you make a big mistake and assuming that scum should care that eddie would flip town. he literally gave us the finger and left leaving everyone to assume he was scum. being on that wagon was good, so

[Lycanfire]

so copy and paste my fucking case on dunnstral add another person that has no conviction in having real reads. the bar is literally that low that you could have quoted me and i would think for at least a moment "hmm maybe they are not a wolf".

[Lycanfire]

You know, if I scumslipped in that post you would have never read it

[Lycanfire]

Lycanfire: Lycanfire votes Shea in his #70, without any reasoning at all, which shows he doesn't care to progress RVS.

I literally said in my next post that my vote was made because I noted CES' vote as bad and wanted to wait out RVS and see how other people would react to it instead of exit RVS. What lack of reasoning is there exactly? I smudged my vote tag on purpose so I could point back to it as being irregular.

[VOTE: Shea

I'll need some clarification on that vote at some point, Lycan

It was an RVS vote because I didn't want to leave RVS. I wanted to make a sillier looking vote but I somewhat felt bad for Mathblade so I made it coherent enough to be picked up by their web bot.

Do you usually need reasons for RVS votes?

llamarble is quite the confident player. Already isssued a warning about being NK'd if he's sorted. Not a fan of players talking about they'll get NK'd this early in the game.

This is the entire point behind Llamarble's play. This is a problem I see too often: players want certain other players to flip a certain way, so they stick with their first gut instinct instead of fully absorbing what other people are doing. This amounts to feely bullshit.

Also, we should probably lynch one of the players who has already posted today.

Agreed.

Vote: 'marble

F...first has scummy cadence too. Did we ever calculate whether ellipses are just a scumtell? Doesn't matter.

If we want people to take such micro scum tells, we have to be more rigorous. You can't just lump in a mid-word ellipsis with general ellipses.

Keychain now also agrees that northsidegal wouldn't pick scum and has provided this game as evidence, highlighting this post.

I like how by providing evidence you've managed to make your claim less compelling than it was previously.

Llamarble is obviously putting all the attention on himself to rile up opportunistic scum. CES immediately jumps on it. I don't like Llamarble talking himself up on a personal level - it's pretentious - so why does he post it? It's because anyone that would actually raise an issue with it is crippled, reaching for low hanging fruit.

VOTE: Cogito Ergo Sum

Tchill seems town so far. "Alarmed" post counts in favor and scumhunting seems genuine enough.

You don't think his catch-up-style entry to the game felt forced? I'm assuming he's used to a spammier meta than we are and catching up on a 4/5 page game seems weird to me. Achieving a natural game entry as scum is generally not trivial, especially given the Marquiswagon, and this seems like an affectation that would let him sidestep the essential difficulty.

Open wolf season

He states he is busy in his [urlhttps://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=9907370#p9907370]#430[/url] which is a recurring excuse.

What's the point of this comment, unless the point is to make me feel bad about everyone in my life demanding more from me?

In his #932 he states Eddie and Dunn are lynch bait, but doesn't really look into people that are pushing Dunn.

... I expressed this read laser pointed at Dan, within minutes of him posting shit reads to see if he would go back on Gamma (to closely align with CES' reads) or change his mind and say Marquis is scum (... to closely align with CES' reads) or pull another name out of a hat (which would be amusing). He lurked it out... And later came up with Gamma and Marquis.

He returns to his CES vote #1369, while not trying to push the wagon even though he says he wants people to be on it. In his #1575 he states he didn't do much with it or interact with him due to previous pages being TvT, which doesn't seem believable to me. In his #1669 He states his underperformance is due to people not wanting to play, which is another excuse.

Yes, congrats on spamming the thread at that time. You made for a fun game.

He also states my global reads needs changes but he doesn't have solid reads to back his up, especially his town reads.

I gave reasons for all of them. Point out which ones you don't like.

His read on Eddie is mabye scum, for voting Marquis, who he feels is lynchbait. His #1839 seems like a big effort to move from the CES wagon he was sitting on onto Eddie who he was reading as maybe scum.

Mastina's godread was awful. Gamma sheeping that was awful. All great conclusions you couldn't come up with yesterday.

A wagon analysis before he flips, not after. After my interaction with him, he seemed to get better at interacting near the end of Day 2, but it doesn't do much to improve my read on him.

You were going for NSG hardcore for being a lurksack. I went on NSG for having a sucky read on Dan. Again, you're welcome for doing the legwork that you're incapable of doing.

He town reads Shea for being unwavering with Davo's scumread on him, but that's it. It's a bit weak, and he hasn't really tried to sort him, nor did he ask about his direction on Dunnstral, who he believes is lynchbait. Scum. His read on Shea doesn't really factor in that Shea is pushing for Dunn when Lycanfire stated Dunn was lynchbait. Again, showing that he said that only to say that, not actually backing that up.

For the last three days you've asked me to justify my read on Shea. At what point am I supposed to revise my read? If he's town he's town, and I'm not going to look through windows for trash when there's a dumpster right in front of me. I don't need to poke and prod at a townie to stop voting a townie when that flashpoint can get scum to justify shit reads (see: LQ, Dan, NSG re: Dunnstral.) Lynchbait is lynchbait for a reason.

Vote CES.

I want him
You want him
Shea gave brief interest in ces and dan yesterday
LQ said he wanted him on a Marquis townflip
NSG has a teammate saying to lynch him, paid some attention to the prospects of ces and dan

Davsto last put CES at null and agreed with him on some point later on. Focusing too hard on LQ/Gamma, no idea where he stands

Gamma doesn't want CES but is neverscum with CES.
Dunnstral doesn't want CES, got miffed at Shea when he got poked in the eyes on how he was talking to him
Marquis last townread CES two weeks ago. isn't scum with lq, could be getting turbo bused on a dan team.
Dan briefly said CES was scummy then explicitly townreads CES and has offered no new content on the matter. They're partners so who gives a shit about getting his vote.

There's 5 people that want him. We need 6 to lynch. One of the five that don't agree will flip.

Let me ask you Ran: if I'm partners with CES would I be getting this much resistance? I had two critical moments yesterday where I hinted I was happy ignoring all the supplementary evidence I found and would drop it all to vote CES. - 1839, 1855. In your theory where the choice is pre-determined by a scumteam, is there a strong scum motive in calling out a teammate for lacking a continuity in reads or asking if there was ever a possibility in lynching CES?

2347 is your worst post since your global read one. You're not reading into the game in any meaningful way. Just about every point you have on the board to scumread me hilariously should be a reason to townread me. There shouldn't be a universe where you townread Dan's dogshit read on Dunnstral - 927, epic intermezzo (CES, what do I say? edition): 1144, 1698 (double exclam, this one is for you, chesskid!!), 1705, 1708, (makes a post that boils down to "i townread everyone") > 1988 at least he remembered to at least look like he's taking the wind out of Eddie's wagon with the followup post. Back to live! 2318 -> no mention of Dunnstral switching votes D1 despite simultaneous Dunnstral/Marquis scumreads all game; cares more about the D2 vote switch when it really didn't matter. I can't smell what Dan is cooking, because he's a fake chef. Fake meal.

[Lycanfire]

could you explain the inconsistency there between the meta case and marquis? i'm not really seeing it.

Why hop off one town wagon in favor of another? It would make more sense to scumread Dunn over this for someone like Dan, who scumreads them both - except he doesn't care because he's a wolf - Dunnstral didn't have a reason that is more likely than "probably legitimately believes Tchill posting in other games is indicative". The only scum motive I could plausibly see here is wanted to look like a more cohesive part of the town, because the Marquis wagoners (wgeurts/Davsto, CES) aren't exactly town MVPs. That has to beat out "but I felt pretty much the same way so his reasoning is good".

[Lycanfire]

you never actually finished your full reads list as you promised around that time.

I never promised one. I was explicitly saying the post I was making wasn't final. I was prefacing the reads I was giving and ended up getting flak over it anyway.

Just goes to show that you aren't really that committed to progressing the game.

I made 9 different reads in the post you're criticizing. On every single person that posted between posts 225 to 324. I furthered my read on every single player on the list.

Don't try to use my activity as an excuse, when I rarely go over two posts. (Only in rare exceptions to I exceed that in cases like my reads list and responses)

you're really lacking in self awareness. i'm not even going to paraphrase what skirt has to say about you, because i don't feel like making you replace out. he still thinks you're town, though.

Here is one read I didn't like: Your Shea read, it's weak.

Shea - asks the questions that popped into my head as I was reading, and even one i would have otherwise missed (#250) sorting of LQ seems genuine (or at least this is not s/s). i feel that by being easily baited into discussing reck's feelings he had first feelings of doubts, and began pausing each time he interacted with a scumread. 265 isn't exactly a 'push', it's very awkwardly worded. (for someone that said "okay we have our first" shea isn't exactly lowering the boom with "if you're town you're not going a good job". particularly in 270 I feel like Shea is so focused on Reck's read that he is unable to see what is in front of him. In 293 he does the exact same thing, in fact the strange wording with Gamma comes back but is directed towards LQ here at the end. My read on Shea is that he is too easily baited into questioning Reck's read that he himself is not putting in the work in the area Reck pointed him in. The entirety of @Drunkards should listen to him talk about the game rather than the other way around.

This is a pr good post because seeing Shea go so ham on LQ afterwards made me feel like a scumfuck. I did pretty much the exact same in Darkest Dungeon but my intentions were meant to be good by getting my highest tr going instead of defending someone that isn't in the game. I'm glad you picked up on this and all but is the conclusion (Shea and I are scum) really justified here? Isn't it SvT, like somehow I felt out to manipulate Shea... Or an alternate universe where a fire is fanned and LQ gets lynched around the time he started getting defeatist about that eventuality? I feel like you saw something weird and decided to make sense of it but really just glossed over the easiest conclusion that Shea held back when he shouldn't have and let it loose when it was pointed out he was justified in doing something besides playing D for Reckoner.

Town. I like how he's unwavering in saying Davsto is free to scumread him.

You should have re-vised your reads today but you show no signs of doing so.

What exactly am I supposed to do and for what reasons am I supposed to do them? All I have is

more

reasons for my beliefs. I've sat back - too much already - thinking about other options, when the scumteam is god damn obvious, and get to deal with unrealistic amounts of noise whenever I want to push the lynch I want. Be less noisy.

I'm not voting CES today.

We'll see.

What's your read on Marquis?

The most sure he was on anything was floating LQ/Eddie as scum. Doesn't fit on an LQ team because of how he pushed LQ (over Eddie) or how they interacted in 456-458. Wagon data for both days says LQ is never scum with Marquis.

EddieFenix(4) ~ LicketyQuickety, Postie, Thestatusquo, Davsto
Marquis(3) ~ EddieFenix, Gamma Emerald, Cogito Ergo Sum

like even with me and ran voting lq this is very obviously a dichotomy.

and i still don't know how people are even entertaining lynching me over lq or even eddie for that mastina series of wtf -
i'm explicitly scumreading everyone on my wagon other than CES because it's more easy to believe it stems from him holding a different mafia-the-game mindset and simply not understanding my play while still being town. and even then i know that's nothing i should be using as a townread basis which is why i'm purposely keeping him low priority for now.

This is his best post all game and then he ruins it by townreading CES later. Marquis never gets lynched before CES. Frankly his reads are bad, he's happy to assign null, could easily be be giving as little information as possible in the event of his lynch. If he's the third, literally something like "so are you guys going to keep voting me?" "yes" must be playing out often for the scumteam. Being demoralized could be indicative of being bussed as well. I'm not sure what more I can say-because despite his post count-there isn't much to say, and I'm increasingly aware that there's likely no more than 1 scum in {marquis, lq, nsg}, so I'm more happy with what I already have (he isn't scum with LQ). Happy to see an ending where a gun is pointed to Dan's head to see him ride out the game ending lynch. The smarter lynch is Dan, by the way. I'm the only one that would be allowed to do a meme ending. Everyone else has to vote Dan.

[Lycanfire]

the scum motivation in this switch seems obvious – accelerate the mislynch that looks like it's actually going through and the one for which an extremely easy / surface level meta "case" can be made. also, i can't really comprehend what the bolded is meant to be saying – could you elaborate / clarify that?

I'm going to be real here - I was under the impression that the Davsto replace didn't happen until after this. Maybe it doesn't make Dunnstral transparently towny by way of wagon data, but I liked his reasoning, while for that last part it makes more sense for people scumreading Dunnstral to also scumread Marquis. Dan in particular cares about a vote change that he shouldn't (d2) in favor over the one that he should care about (d1-hinting CES-Dan-Marquis). LQ also brings up wagonomics as a reason

against

voting Marquis... while simultaneously townreading Dunnstral. He later comes through on voting Marquis again, while Dunnstral remains a townread.

Congratulations on posting something coherent! While we're on a roll here can you explain your thoughts on Dan treating CES like town D1, and only floats him as scum D2, and how he voted Dunnstral over Marquis yesterday? Does your readslist take this into account at all?

[Lycanfire]

Congratulations on posting something coherent! While we're on a roll here can you explain your thoughts on Dan treating CES like town D1, and only floats him as

town

D2, and how he voted Dunnstral over Marquis yesterday? Does your readslist take this into account at all?

alexjonesyourescum.mp3

[Lycanfire]

I accept that LQ slipped up in 1375 and had meant Tchill, but while looking more at LQ-Dunnstral interactions I saw this:

@

LQ

: Can you explain how the motivation I am ascribing isn't there point by point? I don't see CES shaking things up. He seems more conservative/reserved until recently. How do you feel about his early Marble vote? Finally, where have you actually posted your reasoning for scum reading Tchill?

@

TSQ

: Fair enough my dude.

I'll get to responding to your case on me point by point after this.

I've said Chill is a meta read. I've played (I think) back to back games where Chill was Scum. Then Dunn dropped the bomb that Chill is a lot more active as Town and that made me feel better about Chill being Scum. But I am still torn on Chill because there is pretty much zero resistance to the Chill wagon. What Llama says about the wagon being primarily Town motivated doesn't make sense if Chill is Scum with the consideration that there is not hardly even a competing wagon to Chill as of last VC.

TBH, I would have to look up where CES voted for Marqu because I don't remember that. The way I see CES shaking things up is in that he has a different perspective that the "dominant" players in this game. He is going up stream instead of going with the flow. So while he has not been a prolific poster, he still has enough content that I would say is "different" than what everyone else is saying to where I think this gives Town +EV if ECS is Town, which is what I am leaning towards.

Which leaves me with a different question: in what way did you dislike the Tchill wagon?

Why Dunn? Why Dunn over AD, Marq, and CES?

Why Dunn? Why is a wagon suddenly forming on Dunn out of all the lurkers?

Again so why not CES, LQ?

[Lycanfire]

sleeping on the prospects of marquis scum

i can be a noise machine without feeling bad: marquis, davsto. need up to date reads on ces. god bless

[Lycanfire]

Preface (cop dan masonize lq vig ces)

I don't see Marquis as scum over LQ. Fine with letting NSG voting CES. Rosa townreads her, JJ doesn't think that's a bus vote. (for the record, my entire team, sans trans, all agree that ces is scum that must die. rosa-skirt heavy supporters of ces+dan since d1, titus thinks ces is scum because magic, jj was townreading dan all game but was convinced of my game solve in discord like an hour ago holy shit why do i never sleep.)

I was putting some breaks on promoting LQ as scum because JJ was trying to sell me fake news like "LQ/CES can't be aligned together because they haven't voted each other". I would have said that was bullshit if he worded it like that instead of something vague like "voting patterns" two days ago.

Okay so this gets pretty heavy I think I cut out some parts where I was repeating myself. Since nobody ever understands what the fuck I'm saying I think I should have left it in and repeated myself like someone in a mental institution just so everyone understands where I'm coming from.

Part 1 - Their Clues

The most peculiar rationalization I'm having to come up with is how CES/Dan/LQ all simultanously vote Gamma vs. screenplay. There's nothing that really explains this, but all of them simultaneously developed the same shit read D1, and then LQ ends up with a wagon on himself. Then, at this point screenplay is public enemy #1. Trajectory and lack of any thinking skills whatsoever explains the Gamma-Screenplay kneejerk as scum in action. There does need to be a "why" for how they wound up on Gamma to begin with- I'm going to be an asshole and paste all their reasoning, but all behavior makes sense. I present to you all something which I will call "refuge in audacity".

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

I find post 125 incongruous with the Dunnstral evaluation before and after. I also would have expected in post 232 that LQ's acknowledgement of Dunntral's naked vote to be taken as a cue to look back and see why LQ would have said that, instead of making something of it.

Similarly, but much more importantly, there is disparity present between posts 105 and 231 with regard to the read on Sauce. Although 231 doesn't endorse a town read of Sauce there, it is a statement that is a far cry from the feelings expressed in 105.

I don't find anything nearly as scummy in the TSQ/Gamma back and forth as the above, but I will say that I got a strong townread of TSQ out of it.

@Dan 374: I don't think I'm gonna vote Sauce at least for right now based on my current feelings about him and having other people I'm considering before then.

What are these current feelings? Actually I'd like you to detail your feelings at 3 points in time: 105, 231, and right now.

You've questioned Sauce? Where? Could you explicitly link the posts (using URLs, not quoting the whole thing) where you see town value with an accompanying explanation as to why.

Who's scum?

Unvote, vote: Postie

Anyone interested in a last-minute actually good wagon on GE for that gross case in #702?

Unvote, vote: Gamma Emerald

How does that make me Scum?

VOTE: GE

LQ I will respond after work. Why are people voting Gamma for one post when I am seeing him post pro-town posts like the above two.

I think his main reason for voting me is why I'm scumreading him (as in he's voting me because of my reasoning, not my reasoning is based on that, but LQ voting me like that doesn't help matters either)

No, there was also your shady vote shenanigans earlier in the game revolving around Shea and I also talked about how you are voting Chill but made a case on me.

People are going to read this post and not know what the fuck I am talking about because it's prolly over most peoples heads as to why that makes your behavior Scummy. I don't really care. People are not really trying to sort me. They have made up their mind that I am Scum based on completely misinterpreting my motivation. I don't have the drive to explain why the above makes what you did Scummy. If people really want me to explain it I will, but I am loosing hope for this game.

Anyway actually addressing Llamar's scumreads I take issue with, AD is a townread for me, he's been questioning a lot and it isn't just bluster. I honestly don't get why people are scumreading CES but he's been a bit of a black hole for me in terms of having an opinion so maybe someone who townreads him and someone who scumreads him give a case? While I myself don't scumread EddieFenix I guess there is some validity to it?
As for the other parts I'm meh on it, all it takes is one deviation and it goes out the window imo

This is a Town post.

UNVOTE:

Somewhere along the way, I lost the thread of this game.

UNVOTE:

I'm never going to be completely satisfied with GE's turn of opinion with regard to sauce and their interpretation of sauce's earlier posts giving town value to certain inane ramblings, but I've never really seen anything besides that that would make me think scum in particular. (Caveat, I haven't analyzed recent reads with a fine tune comb). Most of the game felt this way too back when I last had command of the game. The only real exception was Dunnstral, and my intention was if I were ever to switch from GE it would be to Dunnstral. That said, people seem to be liking his recent posts and I see why, there's a meta case against Tchill that he's pushing reasonably.

...

I'm not really sure where to put my vote. It's really tempting to just buy into Tchill meta as put forward by Dunnstral, and there's not too many other people I'd vote at this stage (this list is basically just Dunnstral himself / Marquis / CES [who's recent postings I need to read more critically]) but my confidence level on anything flipping scum right now is pretty shit.

Part 2 - Their Blues

Votecount 1.26

Tchill13(5)

~ Thestatusquo, northsidegal, Dunnstral, Gamma Emerald, Lycanfire

Gamma Emerald(2)

~ ActionDan, Cogito Ergo Sum

EddieFenix(2)

~ Postie, Llamarble

northsidegal(1)

~ Marquis

LicketyQuickety(1)

~ Ranmaru

Davsto(1)

~ Tchill13


Not Voting (3): Davsto, EddieFenix, LicketyQuickety

With 15 alive it takes 8 to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2018-02-05 21:00:00)

How does that make me Scum?

VOTE: GE

Votecount 1.28

Srceenplay(5)

~ Thestatusquo, northsidegal, Dunnstral, Lycanfire, Llamarble

LicketyQuickety(3)

~ Ranmaru, Srceenplay, Gamma Emerald

Gamma Emerald(1)

~ Cogito Ergo Sum

EddieFenix(1)

~ Postie


Not Voting (5): Davsto, Marquis, EddieFenix, ActionDan, LicketyQuickety

With 15 alive it takes 8 to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2018-02-05 21:00:00)

Did i say saturday evening? I mean sunday actually am meeting with gf on saturday sry

But I'll try my best to keep with the current state of the game too since that's quite late

rn I think I'll vote LQ because a lot of what he's done has rubbed me the wrong way

VOTE: LicketyQuickety

I've been very busy today, sorry, so just making a quick pop-in to say the whole swap situation makes me feel better about the Tchilllynch - it's certainly a better one than lynching Lickitung (even if Lickitung does post too much).

I reread LQ's iso. Admittedly skimmed some of the posts but I'm getting 0 scum vibes. i.e, exactly the same feelings I got before.

Postie's Eddie analysis is strikes me as a town post and is mostly correct, but I don't agree that EF's ISO this game matches his scum game. If I had to pick out a similarity it's that sometimes questions don't lead anywhere — but that's rather normal for everyone regardless.

Ranmaru, in the absence of clear scum reads, I'm sorting people into "town" and "those remaining", which is not out of line where others (yourself included) are approaching this game as well. Kagami is calling this game a town-hunt and I can't help but agree (she also suggests the scum team is competent but I don't agree that has to be the case).

So far my town column is:

TSQ, lycan, Postie, EF, LQ, Llmarble, Ranmaru , Davsto, NSG.

I'm going to read Marquis/CES/screenplay

Votecount 1.31

Srceenplay(8)

~ Thestatusquo, northsidegal, Dunnstral, Lycanfire, Llamarble, Ranmaru, Gamma Emerald, Cogito Ergo Sum

-- HAMMER

Postie(1)

~ LicketyQuickety

LicketyQuickety(1)

~ Davsto

EddieFenix(1)

~ Postie


Not Voting (3): Marquis, EddieFenix, ActionDan

With 15 alive it takes 8 to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2018-02-05 21:00:00)

Part 3 - Blues Clues

Lycan, in your 225, do you not think your conclusion that CES is opportunistic scum jumping on Llmarble is example of what you described as "feely bullshit" since it seems to me you don't have a reasonable basis to conclude either that Llmarble talked himself up to rile up scum or that CES voted him in reaction to it as CES hardly gave much of a reason for his Llmarble vote in the first place.

Lycanfire:

His provided reads on not even half the players in the game goes after isolated incidence instead of looking at the whole picture regarding the reads he gave where he said most about them. It's important to note that these are the more active players on average so the fact he goes after isolated incidents instead of a broader picture of those slots shows he's either giving low effort for this competition or he is Scum.

His question to me I don't think is a legit way to sort me considering he's already given a SR on me, which makes me think he is pushing an agenda instead of actually sorting people. It's also unclear who he SRs and who he TRs because under Scum you have 6 players, which is far too many to be SRing, which makes me think he is intentionally trying to paint a lot of people as Scum so he can't get blamed for voting someone later in D1 whom he already game a SR on.

Not only that, but in 225 he just assumed Llama was doing a slayers gambit of some sort as opposed to just thinking Llama is firing from the hip (which can come from Town and Scum alike), which IIRC Llama neither confirms nor denies which makes his vote on ECS superflux.

Given he's completely wrong about my motivation for doing things, I think it's more than likely he has done this with other people as well. Misinterpreting someone's motives and just calling their motives Town or Scum, without really digging any deeper than behavioral analysis drops his game short and in my experience this comes from Scum more often than Town.

tl;dr in the disaster that was lq's day 1 posting i never pressured him for doing the exact same thing i've been saying dan and nsg did because i was too pre-occupied contemplating whether his ate was real or not, how fake dan's reads were, and wondering why the fuck llamarble was refusing to lynch ces. pretty much everything point here and we could have figured this out day 1 but just bask in the glory with me for a moment

just kidding, bonus round

[spoiler="re llamarble lynch gamma wagon]

In some order, we are lynching Tchill, the entire Gamma wagon (CES AD LQ) and Eddie.
Scum are going to NK TSQ, Me and / or Postie, NSG / Ran
That's 5 lynches; we get 6. If we haven't won the game with those 5, the people still alive at that point can reevaluate.
If somehow those 5 players are all town, then well played scum. Team would have to be like Marquis Postie NSG or something.
In fairness, NSG scum is more plausible than I was thinking; her ISO is essentially just some reads and reasons.
NSG mostly works on Eddie and CES teams and such though.

The lylo that would leave is:
Marquis
Dunnstral
Lycan
Davsto
Gamma

Give whoever you lynch the day before lylo (CES if he makes it that far) the right to pick the lylo lynch if they flip town. Otherwise elect somebody to control all the lylo votes.
Town MUST all 3 get it right, if game goes to lylo, so they need some preexisting mechanism to agree and stack their votes or else scum have a 90% chance of winning in 2/3 lylo.
And once again, do not assume someone who lacks a good possible buddy must be town. I was universally scumread in Whiteflag 1 and won as scum because Mith distanced from me successfully and it looked like nobody could be my partner.

I can see LQ flipping town. I can see AD flipping town, maybe. I can see Tchill flipping town if all the scum are on the gamma wagon.
CES I can't really see flipping town here, but I'm also too lazy and not reliable enough at reading him to try to lynch him D1. If alive in lylo, all votes go on him please.
Eddie is probably where my next big timechunk of reading should go.

In some order, we are lynching Tchill, the entire Gamma wagon (CES AD LQ) and Eddie.

Why?

Scum are going to NK TSQ, Me and / or Postie, NSG / Ran

How do you know this?

That's 5 lynches; we get 6. If we haven't won the game with those 5, the people still alive at that point can reevaluate.

It's D1 and you are assuming that you have already solved the game. This is a problem.

If somehow those 5 players are all town, then well played scum. Team would have to be like Marquis Postie NSG or something.

This is prolly the dumbest thing said in the thread so far, so congrats on that.

In fairness, NSG scum is more plausible than I was thinking; her ISO is essentially just some reads and reasons.

Yeah, reads and reasons, what are those good for anyways?

NSG mostly works on Eddie and CES teams and such though.

I have no idea what you are even talking about. List some examples.

The lylo that would leave is:
Marquis
Dunnstral
Lycan
Davsto
Gamma

How the fuck are you saying that you know what the LyLo players left are going to be on D1? Irreprehensible. You have not even come close to demonstrating that you have the level of competence to be able to figure this out.

Give whoever you lynch the day before lylo (CES if he makes it that far) the right to pick the lylo lynch if they flip town. Otherwise elect somebody to control all the lylo votes.
Town MUST all 3 get it right, if game goes to lylo, so they need some preexisting mechanism to agree and stack their votes or else scum have a 90% chance of winning in 2/3 lylo.
And once again, do not assume someone who lacks a good possible buddy must be town. I was universally scumread in Whiteflag 1 and won as scum because Mith distanced from me successfully and it looked like nobody could be my partner.

I can see LQ flipping town. I can see AD flipping town, maybe. I can see Tchill flipping town if all the scum are on the gamma wagon.
CES I can't really see flipping town here, but I'm also too lazy and not reliable enough at reading him to try to lynch him D1. If alive in lylo, all votes go on him please.
Eddie is probably where my next big timechunk of reading should go.

OK, so what was you point again?

Put simply I want to set things up D1 to ensure a town win, so I am thinking a few moves ahead. I don't have a very long shelf life as town.
Your post essentially says "I find it annoying that you're thinking far ahead." Which offers even less value than my post
Lynch math - 15 -> 13 -> 11 -> 9 -> 7 -> 5 = 5 lynches; if we've hit scum with those 5 we get an additional lynch.

You haven't demonstrated that you have the ability to think that far ahead! You haven't articulated half of why you have stated the outrageous claims that you have. What value does you post offer in terms of utility for someone who doesn't just take your word for it? Zero!

[/spoiler]

team is {ces, dan, lq}. I will fight all of you horse-sized to the fucking death if you say otherwise.



this one is for eddie cane, stock image scandi (#teamscandi for dan and chesskid), that llamarble guy who is pretty cool, postie for being an alt of one of my teammates, and ranger can go fuck herself for having shit reads.

[Lycanfire]

I would Cop Marquis. Reason for this is that it's the third day in a row we only really legit have one slot in danger of lynch.

Hi

With the Davsto vote on CES we have enough people that have expressed support for CES' lynch.

For the third time I'm asking you to explain why Marquis gets lynched before CES.

[Lycanfire]

Anyone interested in a last-minute actually good wagon on GE for that gross case in #702?

Unvote, vote: Gamma Emerald

Anyone interested in a last-minute actually good wagon on GE for that gross case in #702?

Unvote, vote: Gamma Emerald

Anyone interested in a last-minute actually good wagon on GE for that gross case in #702?

Unvote, vote: Gamma Emerald

Anyone interested in a last-minute actually good wagon on GE for that gross case in #702?

Unvote, vote: Gamma Emerald

Anyone interested in a last-minute actually good wagon on GE for that gross case in #702?

Unvote, vote: Gamma Emerald

Anyone interested in a last-minute actually good wagon on GE for that gross case in #702?

Unvote, vote: Gamma Emerald

Anyone interested in a last-minute actually good wagon on GE for that gross case in #702?

Unvote, vote: Gamma Emerald

Anyone interested in a last-minute actually good wagon on GE for that gross case in #702?

Unvote, vote: Gamma Emerald

[Lycanfire]

his vote on postie literally boils down to "lycan didn't answer your questions" except he never said his reasoning. when i asked him to explain he ignored it. what scumhunting?

[Lycanfire]

I want to ask why you are fine with having NSG vote CES

It isn't a bus vote, and I'm not going to consider outlier teams with NSG.

Marquis is trying to survive and doesn't care to follow up with his reads (NSG read)

oh ok, looks like he's doing a shit job of it, you know by not voting his counter

[Lycanfire]

wondering when LQ wants to speak for themselves btw

[Lycanfire]

That's exactly what I was talking about. You are also being so conf-biased right now that you aren't even considering what I said about NSG (Pedit, I was wrong, diff reason). Scumhunting: Pushing Marquis. That's the only solid thing I can give him. He's not obvious town, but he's lean town. He's not someone I'd consider lynching today. I think you are afraid of considering the NSG aspect because you feel it may make your confidence in CES go down, but I do think you should look into it.

pushing marquis, or that person that appears as a read only when it is convenient for lq ces and dan? this person that is so scummy, that never manages to get pushed over other shit reads like dunnstral, gamma, or eddie? a+ scumhunting.

[Lycanfire]

Lycanfire, that's exactly why he is scum, because he's voting off the 'counter' to seem town. I basically explained this in my #2556. You are really letting this 'team' thing restrict your reads. (I mean scumteam thing)

this only makes sense if marquis IS scum with ces and wants the ship to be set on fire as it crashes against the waves. how are you rationalizing marquis=scum, ces=town, counter=no?

[Lycanfire]

paraphrasing skirt because he has more time than i do is basically the same reads

There is one scum in Marquis|CES. Skirt favors CES here, and wants Marquis powerlynched if CES is town. (breaking from skirt and saying that Titus said the same thing earlier in day when LQ hopped onto CES). This could be SvS as well, but skirt doesn't see it and wants to see someone that isn't CES push something that isn't a shit case onto Marquis.

Skirt goes onto doing NKA on Llamarble citing 875 and fingering this for his death and that we need consensus that the Gamma wagon was bad. Postie is supposedly killed to implicate Dunnstral (which is all pretty consistent with what we're seeing today). Killing someone hard townreading NSG is supposedly a bonus, because skirt thinks this was a lynchable slot coming into day.

With NKA out of the way skirt gives a neverlynch pool of {NSG, Ran}. We had a lot of discussion in Discord a few days ago over whether NSG v Ran was SvS, or how Ran was pleading to get her onto Marquis was theatre. NSG subverted this by voting CES, and we agree that Ran's hop on isn't strange after I blasted CES on his votes again.

Gamma is put a step further- his read is basically is that he thinks Gamma's play is within his scumrange, but we aren't considering outlier teams with Gamma. I'd put Gamma in neverlynch.

LQ is townie(?) because of his push on Shea. I countered in Discord that LQ's case doesn't make sense and being off both main wagons is awful.

Skirt hardtown read Shea off day 1, but says from meta-analysis that Shea has a good scumgame, while Hiplop and Reck have equally good scumgames, while both flipped town. This gives him suspicion of Shea given how he called CES' lynch D1 pointless to throwing weight beyond Postie's crusade D2, while simultanously pushing Marquis. I think the point is that Skirt is saying Shea is viable scum on a CES red flip. He's the towniest of the lynchable.

Skirt only offers a weaker NSG read onto Davsto (Postie/RC killed to make more lynches viable) so I'll supplement. Titus has a witch read saying one of Shea|Davsto is scum. Don't ask me how this works. I think Davsto giving up Gamma and taking a break from LQ to throw themselves behind the CES lynch is only good stuff. Skirt seems to think Wgeurts takes scum on Young and Beautiful but I countered by saying that Wgeurts has one bullet in the gun, and it's not a very good bullet for White Flag: he can get angry, one time, and it might work, or he might get lynched in the ensuing slapfight. Skirt and I also agree that Wgeurts didn't do anything pro-town. Overall I think he places Davsto too low due to the four townflips on YAB clouding his judgment. I would put Davsto just below neverlynch, above Shea, and a lightyear above LQ.

Skirt makes no sense on Dan. Trash read lol. Says Dan doesn't take scum on his team. Says it is right for ~~reasons~~ that I'm not sure is legal to say anymore. These reasons were supposedly never wrong in Team Mafia18.

Marquis is somehow town and lynchable past Dan. There's a lot of paranoia in our Discord atm about why Marquis isn't voting his counter, why Dunnstral, Marquis, LQ and Dan all have shit reads while skirt is tunneling on the Postie kill while I just think she got RC'd.

Which leads skirt to Dunnstral and says there's 100% scum in ces|dunnstral. Jj says 3 scum in CES Dunn Dan Davsto.

My team basically wants to fite me but we all agree that CES has to die. People having shit reads this game isn't helping us not have shit reads.

[Lycanfire]

Tell me what you think of this post: #2380. Then tell me what you think of the rest of those pages. I think these are important to read, so if you think it's nonsense, don't. I want you to read them. Tell me why you think Marquis and LQ are

not buddies

.

Vote onto CES wasn't meant to be, LQ vs Shea is shit, and LQ has no business with his vote on Shea with how little sense he is making. Marquis and LQ aren't wolves because of how they talk to each other see 456-458, 1505 all being the easy examples. Sprinkle in vote data (marquis and gamma must die, ces too, just kidding! also, a wild shea) and I don't think they're on the same team. LQ's votes are very reactionary, and the Gamma one in particular is aimed because I said they couldn't be aligned based on interactions, and I imagine he was more worried about Llamarble's D1 post than any of us when he opened day with that can of worms. I read LQ as having a hitlist of people he can't get along with endgame, and this Shea argument just reads like he's muddying the waters.

(I know I hate how people ignore my reads so I'll give LQ a pity fuck- 2410 is over the top to 2426 is accusing Shea of doing something he isn't doing... Though I suppose that by attacking Shea's premise "once you're caught you're dead" is also attacking the Marquis wagon? I just don't view any of this as actually town, so seeing this as an attack on Shea, or the credibility of the Marquis wagon all get outpaced by the idea that LQ is just trying to create uncertainty tomorrow.)

[Lycanfire]

I feel like Ran telling LQ to vote CES was testing whether he was the third or not. The reply he got was that LQ would look into the "hard data". This is immediate failure of the test, IMO. Basically if the bus becomes the best play (which it is) he would do it, but only after he embarrasses himself apparently.

[Lycanfire]

LQ what is your read on Ranmaru?

[Lycanfire]

[Lycanfire]

NSG: I think she's scum due to fence sitting, lacking presence, and not committing to the Eddie wagon without a stance on it. She states her lack of motivation was due to having bad posts, but I never got that feeling, and she was never pressured. I certainly think that she is more likely scum who actually lost interest in keeping up. She posts in other games and seems to have more energy for those and leaves this in the back burner. She also hasn't seemed to re-evaluate her CES read, she seems to be more harping on him and trying to find anything she can on him rather then actually try to determine his alignment.

I pretty much did a call-to-arms post and NSG and Davsto answered the call. NSG wouldn't have to play the hammer as an instrument over and over again. If you trust that I'm town, then trust that scum!NSG either tells me to fuck off and as a result push CES-NSG as a team like a madman, or shouts you down for ignoring me. She doesn't need her own horse in the race, but it's there, and her content has picked up today. Reconsider your read.

Lycanfire

: I also want you on this push. I think scum are killing in a way to let others do the work for them while they sit in the background. LQ votes Postie in his #1210 in a weird manner to stay off the wagon to keep his hands clean. NSG votes T-chill, but lurks after words and prod dodges: #707 #1030. No appearance before day end. No vote from Action Dan. Marquis too. D2 LQ is on Eddie's wagon because he believes Postie is bussing. So instead of pushing for Postie, he follows her push. While Action Dan and NSG wagon Dunnstral. Note that NSG held her vote until the EOD to start a counter wagon. I don't think she really intended for that vote to *do* anything.

We can find all kinds of circumstantial evidence like this if we try, but we were both on when she made that vote and I was bothering her about Dan. Refusing to make progress on him at that time was bad, and supportive of an NSG-Dan team. What this doesn't explain is why she stays off the Eddie wagon, because I'll fight anybody that wants to say someone being v/la but not really for 3 days, prodded at 5 and comes by on day 6 to tell us all they and their team don't give a shit about the game wasn't a good wagon to be on. Doesn't scum!NSG

still

want her vote to do something?

What does scum "intent" mean to you? If it means advancing a scum agenda, I'd say Dunn did his fair share pushing Tchill/Screenplay to lynch. And after that, lurking enough to not get noticed, is the motivation that describes most of his posts. ...

you're acting if that's the end-all be-all when it isn't.

I thought the D2 vote change bothered you the most? Is Dunnstral's D1 vote swap that bad, was it conductive to lynching Tchill/Screenplay, and if this is some kind of progression why aren't you conceding that you're posting this because I called you out on focusing on the D2 vote change instead of the D1 one?

VOTE: Dunnstral

After reading the latest Dunnstral posts I'm more and more confident in a scum flip here. 2258 is the definition of surface level thoughts. If you aren't prepared to come up with your own answers for questions like these then it's a post for the sake of a post. I feel similarly about posts like 1899 and 1992: Both me and TSQ have given our rationales clearly, and at least for me, this wasn't ever a new development; so adding on the "it doesn't make sense" bit there is indicative of not doing the barest of due diligence, and I'd posit simple willful ignorance. I am aware of Dunnstral not being caught up, but the way that post is written betrays an unwillingness to do so to actually attain the context of my read and potentially sort me from that.

I do think it's entirely possible for the vote switch to marquis from Eddie by Dunnstral late D2 to be attributed to the reason given but that scum would be capable of that thinking too and might see an opportunity to position better knowing eddie was doomed and would flip town.

Dan in particular cares about a vote change that he shouldn't (d2) in favor over the one that he should care about (d1-hinting CES-Dan-Marquis).

If you don't show your work, it isn't exactly progression. Telling a half-good case is only saying a half-good case. It doesn't prove to me that you're in this game to lynch scum.

I also am 100% betting that you asking me for a sorted read's list is in bad faith also but here you go:

I was gnawing at my fingernails when I posted skirts reads, because I was happy with my game solve, but for the first time my team is convinced I'm a goner tonight and we want a CES lynch. I'd love to have everyone sheep my reads but at the same time I recognize that sometimes you need to throw reads on a canvas and see what is made out of it. People have different reasons for different reads, and people can be reasoned to have better reads. Once you have townies working in concert it's difficult for the scumteam to crack apart that glue and prompt them into mislynches. So I did it, even if it made me unhappy, anxious, or worried that there'd be some paradigm shift and I'd have to deal with another D2 shenanigan festival.

So what I mean to say here is that giving us reads only in isolation up to this point is disgusting. See my "walk in other peoples shoes / take the routes they take / see how their reality matches up to my own" approach to reads I mentioned D1. I already walked an uncomfortable path because I thought it was going to have to be traveled, and the temporary discomfort is outweighed by giving potentially useful information the next day. Acting like it's in some way nefarious to ask for a readslist doesn't add up to me. You should be willing to slam them down, justify yourself and work towards better reads.

I meant to do a full catch up but I didn't actually expect I'd have to go back and read back from earlier in the day and D2. Rest will be done tonight.

[Lycanfire]

I see you're running out of room to find reasons to scum read me, now relying on me not getting/producing a read on Gamma. That's fine you can continue to do that, as well as saying Gamma is low/null when that's not the nature of my views towards him. Nor is he anywhere close to a priority today.

You're definitely right that I was writing you off as town, mostly from one of Sauce's post and continually pushing out huge walls, but I'm wising up now.

And I'm not failing to undermine you, I'm doing it. I even got YOU off of NSG! score 1 for me! Hopefully this day ends in a Dunnstral lynch and then we'll really be cooking.

you should be willing to come to a consensus that gamma is town or push people into reasoning otherwise. slamming him down as null/maybe scum/not any kind of priority isn't progressing the game. i'll be frank: scumreading gamma is a shit read. i've reasoned him as town. i'm sure he's north of most readslists. we need people to agree on things to make progress, and this is an easily agreed upon read. show your work.

[Lycanfire]

I don't really see it still but in CES's comments about his read on me he said that he'd have liked to see more about the townread I gave Eddie. I have to ask, did you not agree with it? originally it was because I'd never think Eddie would take a scum PM as long as his team had any town PMs, which is why I thought there was 99.9% chance eddie was town coming into the game. But considering your vote D2, I highly doubt I'd have changed your mind and you were cognizant of it, it seems. So why the need to reiterate it to you? would that have made you unvote Eddie?

I just think it didn't stand out to me initially; it's not like I was scum reading him at the time. There were definitely times in D2 where I wavered and was close to switching back to Marquis.

This looks like a really weird interaction.. They both seem to be on the defensive of each other. I don't know what this means. I almost think this is T vs S, but I am usually very hesitant to label things as that because they are so hard to spot.

@Lycan, what do you think of this interaction here?

Theatre. Dan is trying to look concerned about CES' read, maybe pointing out that CES had a good reason to suspect Dan (CES had Eddie high up in his pool D2). Meanwhile CES is making a pass, and still has no aspirations to question Dan, esp. after that hilariously bad flip eod1 Dan had with Gamma-Eddie-Dunnstral and then onto Marquis, while being unable to properly justify Dunnstral or Marquis as scum, even though it's easy to argue. It isn't that they're being defensive of one another, it's that Dan is saying "look everyone, CES had some weak suspicion of me at some time for a good reason! look at how much of a scumshit I was yesterday!" all while trying to be up in his face about it. CES perceives no threat from Dan and rather than say "you can't influence me to vote anybody" or "why didn't you work with me yesterday" he offers this lawful neutral "[at] times ... i wavered". CES is unnecessarily making this about himself.

I made it this far in CES' ISO.. I don't think he is Scum.

So is CES the townie in the above scenario? It's worded

T vs S

. As in, the townie is the one creating the flashpoint against the scum. That's Dan in the above. I don't see how they're defensive either.

I also thought 395 was weak sauce and I hate that Shea is TRing Gamma for that.

Is 395 scummy?

The "No Doubt" post.

snip

This is why Shea needs to die.

Is it unfair that somebody that scumreads you, calls you scum, and says that he has no doubt that you would vote him? I don't like how you boil down his argument to you joining "a bandwagon". Shea at the time wasn't just a random person for you. Shea is referencing a time where you were actively attacking Reck's reads, and saying you would vote him as scum is completely fair. Attacking you for your votes at the time was completely fair. Boiling it down into "would I do this as town"/"would I do this as scum" is pointless, because he clearly defined his read on you at the time. Combating this by trying to create some kind of doubt about your align is just hilariously the wrong angle to make, because it completely sidesteps the need to justify your votes.

Is anyone besides North actually TRing Marquis?

How do you feel about Postie trying to sell Marquis her Eddie read, only for Marquis to ignore it, come back and say he'll post for real, then votes you, Ranmaru eod, only to ignore Postie again D2 to vote yourself and Dunnstral?

THAT is a CASE!!!

VOTE: CES

I applaud you.

Why CES over Marquis? In your own words please. No dodgerino, you're the one putting your foot down for these reads here.

Does Tchill's wagon comp factor into your reads at the moment? How does this affect your read on Dunnstral?

[Lycanfire]

I'll be home in a few hours if anyone wants a jam tonight. I'm mostly caught up and have a tab explosion of posts I think are important. Let's break this game open.

[Lycanfire]

Lycanfire we need to talk tonight. CES, I'll reply when I get home.

I'm here

[Lycanfire]

I've put this off long enough but I'm going to really consider replacing out. I don't expect this to end anytime as soon as I thought it would and you all know I keep tapping in and out here.

Asking my team about it, will get back in the morning with a fresh head and final decision.

can you come to a consensus that ran is town or power him into the ground with some sick point that flew over everybodies heads?

[Lycanfire]

Ranmaru: I feel like the basic thesis of putting LQ and Gamma on the same team is flawed. What do you think of post 285 and LQ's retort in 289, along with pages 11 and 12? Your entire scumteam is interacting here.

[Lycanfire]

I'm not sure how necessary the Gamma case is with this team when LQ (or Dan) were the only people that wanted Gamma and that meta case (which I suppose I skipped) is a good 200 posts after I point to Gamma as locktown. Doesn't Shea finger LQ as a possible scum partner there, too?

[Lycanfire]

I'm pretty curious where CES went for Shea when he made 2952, and I was hoping to have him on board for CES, instead he joined the shit read alliance.

Basically the members of this alliance have been:
Ranmaru (ranges from good reads to shit, flip a coin in the middle of the day to find out)
Shea (Dunnstral, Marquis)
Dan (Dunnstral, Marquis, Gamma)
Dunnstral (Marquis)
Marquis (Dunnstral, Ranmaru)
LQ (Marquis, Shea)

CES is stuck on Marquis because he knows he's going to die and giving any more info only hurts the scumteam. He's about the only person that has bothered to drum up something beyond that Marquis lurked (Dan doesn't count because Dan's case sucks)

Gamma's votes haven't been amazing, but he's been for Dan and CES.

Davsto and NSG have townie votes.


My team wants no compromise outside of {CES|Dunnstral}. Rosa is pretty sure that Dunnstral is town through some meta thing / skirt is pretty sure he's either scum or scum killed Postie to promote the lynch, and wants the flip to find out. Pencil that in with the shit reads alliance above. (see my previous post about people with shit reads not helping us not have shit reads.)

That's a really lame lynch, so we need Gamma to hammer CES instead.

Cogito Ergo Sum(5)

~ Lycanfire(41), Davsto(21), northsidegal(105), LicketyQuickety(272), Thestatusquo(117)

This wagon comp is acceptable. If there's a bus vote, it's probably LQ. Equally likely is roadkill Marquis, because he's had every opportunity to be ON this wagon.

[Lycanfire]

Equally likely [to be the third] is Marquis.

[Lycanfire]

more team content

something something say to vote ces in large font and people will do it - rosa

V

O

T

Є

C

Є

S

☭

☭

☭

☭

☭

H

A

M

M

Є

Я

T

Ї

M

Є

☭

☭

☭

☭

☭

say that nsg and gamma are ics in this game (probably paraphrased) - skirt

do not vote nsg gamma and ranmaru this game

okay i was supposed to do that too

skirt says respec to nsgteam

that

[Lycanfire]

okay so if this shit isn't locked when i wake up i want lq's next post to have answers to my 3205 that he promised

if gamma is on and doesn't vote ces, he needs to say why and who is the lynch for the day

if shit is fucked, and this is a townflip there

must be

a pre-determined player that controls lylo come day 5.

i suggest

whoever is left tomorrow out of

{myself nsg gamma ranmaru}

come to a consensus day 4 who will choose the day 5 lynch. everyone that is town disputes this shit tomorrow because people that don't fall in line day 5 missed the train and claim scum.

don't even bother fighting me on this now. fuck you, do something productive with your life instead.

[Lycanfire]

thank you for the contribution

[Lycanfire]

I'd almost appreciate a real vote out of CES if he were town, like, right now, but notice how I didn't bother to ask and that he didn't bother giving one.

Also, apparently he knows that Marquis will live to day 5.

[Lycanfire]

quick is already on ces. dunnstral is the one that voted shea.

[Lycanfire]

reading is hard

[Lycanfire]

that's ok, his last post of the day will be remembered as the one that rather than answer my questions and prove he's in on ces, he promoted marquis as the third. with his "do you know why i'm asking" comment i legit thought he was going to accuse you of derailing the ces wagon and i was :amused: only for him to ruin it by making it all about not lynching him tomorrow.

[Lycanfire]

(which is fine because dan is a perfectly fine lynch.)

2532 means we don't have to choose between lq or marquis (is the lq/gamma/tchill wagons of day 1 suspicious, or is marquis refusing to vote his counter because of double scum wagons?) just vote dan tomorrow.

[Lycanfire]

My vote for LyLo lynch leader is whoever is willing to vote for Marquis.

I strongly encourage anyone reading this that's still alive in LyLo to just go rogue and vote for Marquis.

I'd almost appreciate a real vote out of CES if he were town, like, right now, but notice how I didn't bother to ask and that he didn't bother giving one.

Also, apparently he knows that Marquis will live to day 5.

adding onto this in case any subtleties were missed

i'm blatantly painting a townbloc of unlynchables, and saying we need a lylo controller

he doesn't care about a lylo controller

he flat out says to disobey, but gives no reason why

ces has no delusions of not being lynched

he is saying this now, because he can't say it tomorrow

he is saying marquis will live to day 5, but if he gets lynched and flips town, that will probably not happen

if ces is town and about to be lynched, he has two things he can do:
-pre-vote for a lylo leader
-demand to be the lylo leader today and say for marquis to be lynched

look at his specific wording:

My vote for LyLo lynch leader is whoever is willing to vote for Marquis.

For someone that makes things about himself even at his own detriment he refused to make THIS about himself. CES' Marquis scumread has been his entire contribution to the game, but rather than make THAT all about him - he refuses and vaguely says that whoever wants to vote Marquis in a day5 lylo is the leader.

This is a scumclaim.

[Lycanfire]

Let's dissect that.

...You disagree with the premise of a lylo controller (go rogue)
No comment. That's shit.

...You disagree with the people presented.
At the very least you don't think they will vote for Marquis, despite two of the four doing so today.

...You say your ideal lylo controller anybody that votes Marquis.
Looking at the wagons of the day, Marquis already had a wagon exceeding your own. There's no reason to assume that he wouldn't be lynched tomorrow with how easily he could have been lynched today.
You shouldn't know that Marquis lives to day 5 (though, he could if you flip scum).

...You don't present yourself as a leader.
You plainly point for somebody else to lead at lylo.

...You are clearly aware that you're about to be lynched.
If you were ever going to flip town, what the fuck is any of this?

Nothing about this is real.

[Lycanfire]

NSG: Now is the time for Shea. Join me. We have cookies.

your never ending desire to extend day is disgusting

i present to you an anti-scummie, and elusive artifact given to those that promote only the best shitplay.

[Lycanfire]

you can wait forever, you've got time

[Lycanfire]

Lol

[Lycanfire]

Phonepostan

Lq/3269 you later case Marquis as third scum. Do you think there was a bus going from day 1/ how do you feel about that CES comment in that exchange "at times I wavered [day 2]" and do you think that is more likely than Dan's push on Dunnstral being the endgame spoiler?

[Lycanfire]

someone give me a reason to not hammer now
I got aminute

I dont actually care about lq answering and just wanted his answer on paper because I don't think anybody would ask for his gymnastics tomorrow.

Lynch Dan tomorrow, third scum is LQ, maybe Marquis.

[Lycanfire]

¿Qué pasa? my fellow townies

If I told you all that I had insider knowledge about the setup would anybody believe me?

[Lycanfire]

This entire tournament is a joke

[Lycanfire]

Nop

[Lycanfire]

[Lycanfire]

Nobody in team mafia told me anything

From what little I can piece together I was the NK last night. This is fact. NSG was a forced kill. I am insulted that scum didn't surrender and kill me anyway.

[Lycanfire]

I never expected to make worthwhile content posts again but Jj still wants the free win.

I own Ran's vote today because they have proven to be a poor handler of it.

Please vote LQ, Ran.

[Lycanfire]

Again I have 100% certainty that this happened and we can't talk about it, sorry

[Lycanfire]

[Lycanfire]

Okay but regardless of what you think, LQ is scum.

[Lycanfire]

okay i wasn't going to hurt anybody's feelings but this is reaching COPPA level stupidity

drinking alcohol does not make you an idiot. it makes you disoriented. it harms your impulse control. you're still 100% capable of reason and shame unless you have an actual medical condition such as alcoholism that leaves you susceptible to black outs.

and if you are blacking out, you aren't capable of hitting submit. blacking out means you might punch someone at the slightest provocation and never remember it, or say something you otherwise wouldn't say. you know, with your mouth.

this is all the more reason why we're lynching LQ.

[Lycanfire]

You're a child roleplaying as an adult that is roleplaying as a child.

[Lycanfire]

Here ye! Here ye, scummy folk!

[Lycanfire]

why do i even bother to effort edition

CES' FLIP IS POWERFUL.

The entire thread can be read from CES' pov, and all his motives can be poked at. Living in his moments and feeling how he may have felt at the time is key to determining the context in how he was speaking.

WE CAN FOCUS ON WHAT IS READABLE.

We have a lens that we are able to view the thread with and read it with the context to serve us with the results that we want (namely: lynching his partners).

WE HAVE BETTER REASONING AND MORE INFORMATION TODAY THAN WE DID BEFORE.

Consider how sure I was with CES, which started with a single post, to a bad interaction, to bad wagon movement. Does him flipping disprove any previously mentioned theory? No. All of these things happened and all conclusions made have to fit the context of the game.

Using the above three deductions, only one conclusion can be made:

LQ is scum, and this post will prove it.

CASE 1 - VOTE HISTORY

Gamma Emerald (3) ~ ActionDan, Cogito Ergo Sum, LicketyQuickety 853
LicketyQuickety (3) ~ Ranmaru, Srceenplay, Gamma Emerald 961

enough said

CASE 2 - WAGONOMICS

I have already previously mentioned how Tchill was the counter to LQ.

-LQ reaches 4 votes to Srceenplay 5.
-CES immediately shades the wagon, promotes Tchill wagon
-Dan shades the wagon, promotes Tchill wagon
...
-sometime later CES hammers and pretends a gun was put to his head, yadayada never bothered to push his other reads over it

...

CASE 3 - THE SUSPECTS

CES had

four clear suspects in mind

day 1. They were Marquis (wagon), Gamma (wagon), Postie (vain), Tchill (hammered). Two of these have flipped town.

I agree with NSG that it is likely that CES never voted scum. CES is a geriatric. Older players know that people will look for patterns when there are none, and will try to find distancing when there is none, a bus when there is none. The flaw in scumhunting in this way is that

you are at the mercy of scum, and they get to play spoiler.

You HAVE to define the interaction as explicitly SvS. If there's any universe where it is SvT, it can be because

the wolf wants you to think it's SvS.

CES doesn't have to distance in this game- plus, this is consistent with the behavior I described before

CES is stuck on Marquis because he knows he's going to die and giving any more info only hurts the scumteam. He's about the only person that has bothered to drum up something beyond that Marquis lurked (Dan doesn't count because Dan's case sucks)

CES has been under suspicion all game.

Walk with me in the shoes of CES day 1.

Why did CES break with the town so rapidly day 1? 665, 728 are examples I never let CES get away with. Why not promote the Tchill wagon and infiltrate the town? Llamarble was running the town at the time, and either by luck or skill had a decent town bloc behind him. White Flag is the scumhunters setup: I think most of us were sent here before our role PMs were drawn. CES was burdened by proficiency, and joining the flock left him to justify himself to Llamarble. "Scumhunting" CES had nothing to justify. This is what happened. He did not push Tchill because it was scummy to do so.

Why did CES not promote Marquis over the Tchill wagon? Going against the town with shoddy reasoning would be scummy as hell.

Why did CES not promote Gamma over LQ? Davsto's vote comes just over 100 posts after Llamarble says to lynch the entire Gamma wagon of CES-Dan-LQ. And a hundred posts after that Llamarble says he loves Gamma's vote onto LQ. In what fucking world does making Gamma a counter to LQ help the scumteam?

Why did CES not promote Marquis over LQ? We reach an interesting dichotomy here. The answer is because one of them is scum. There's

no reason

why CES cannot promote Marquis over LQ, yet he does not.

Why did CES promote Tchill over LQ? It is because LQ is scum. LQ was already going terminal in 476 in Llamarble/Shea/myself vs LQ, after the Davsto vote, he doubles down in 991. Not exactly an inspiring story. He follows it up by moving reads around but he doesn't scumhunt ever again until he bashes his skull into Shea D3. I'm being generous by calling that scumhunting. 991 is the peak town performance scumQ can offer.

CASE 3 - THE NIGHT KILLS

Llamarble - killed because of 875
Postie - killed because of 1949
Lycanfire - I was the kill. I was killed because I called him scum every other post D3. Scum literally could not win with me alive and I'm surprised they didn't make the still completely legal kill of offing the treestump. There wasn't going to be a drop of wine in the nightkill. I wish I was dead right now.

CASE 4 - SUPPLEMENTARY EVIDENCE

LQ goes onto Gamma start of D3 because of 1949
LQ wants Dunnstral lynched because of the same post even though if he was playing a competent scumgame he would be reverse white flag gambiting atm. I already called the team impossible.

He has scumclaimed in three different instances

(scumtears, and he's actually referring to Gamma, but says Ran for some reason.)

@Lycan,

I am a firm believer that no one is "lock Town" unless they are confirmed by the mod to be Town. Also, don't give me that "there are no associations with Ran" because we haven't got a red flip yet. So no, Ran is not clear. If you have a very good reason to say why he is Town, that is one thing, but to say he is lock Town is not something I can roll with.

(this is four hours after the CES flip)
LQ salt requesting this set up to be evaluated in Open Setup Discussion

Request: 15 player White Flag, 3 Scum

LQ noming NSG for a scummie

Nom northsidegal for Rising Star.

Will have to do a proper meta dive, but North types with clarity and insight with nearly every post they make.

My team agrees that this is NEVER town, can only be scum tears, and we expected day to never happen until night was delayed because we were sure that the scumteam was surrendering.

More reasons to believe me: skirt legitimately trusts my reads and isn't just saying that.

[Lycanfire]

Please vote LQ, Ran.

I don't think it's LQ. Both Marquis and Action Dan never showed up before deadline.

marquis and dan never show up for anything. vote LQ.

[Lycanfire]

davsto: where did your LQ vote go?

[Lycanfire]

LQ goes onto Gamma start of D3 because of 1949

I meant 430. I'm either sleep deprived or you're all melding into the same antitown fucker.

Vote onto CES wasn't meant to be, LQ vs Shea is shit, and LQ has no business with his vote on Shea with how little sense he is making. Marquis and LQ aren't wolves because of how they talk to each other see 456-458, 1505 all being the easy examples. Sprinkle in vote data (marquis and gamma must die, ces too, just kidding! also, a wild shea) and I don't think they're on the same team. LQ's votes are very reactionary, and the Gamma one in particular is aimed because I said they couldn't be aligned based on interactions, and I imagine he was more worried about Llamarble's D1 post than any of us when he opened day with that can of worms. I read LQ as having a hitlist of people he can't get along with endgame, and this Shea argument just reads like he's muddying the waters.

says it more eloquently

[Lycanfire]

scum team of tchill, LQ and then one in {wgeurts, Cogito Ergo Sum, Dunnstral, Gamma Emerald, EddieFenix } ?

that's not a great POE on the last slot but thankfully I don't have to worry about it yet.

Yeah, it's not POE, it's preflip.

a co-ordinated scum team of Tchill, LQ, and Marble (which wouldn't be out of the question as of this post now that I think about it.

So uh
My buddies are my top 2 scumpicks
One of whom I am voting
Excellent

Though I actually got happy when I (a few hours ago) ran into that LQ post about Tchill meta, it was very.much the flavor of.buddies. So you can have partial credit for noticing that at least.

I see we are doing preflip here. What is the motivation for doing so?

There was no deeper meaning. I felt there was a higher chance of LQ and Eddie being scum together, while I had Marquis as a scum read on the back burner, as I wasn't too confident in it. I'd like for you to look into NSG.

Yup. This is why Pre-Flip sucks eggs.

Because Pre-Flip is bad.. Duh.

[Lycanfire]

Llamarble if I called the scumteam as Marquis+ActionDan+CES what would be your opinion?

I don't see anything wrong with these choices, particularly CES + AD I can believe. CES is going after Marquis with a decent amount of energy, but not enough to rule out the pairing.

You didn't really need to make 5 posts just to make like one interesting point, 'marble. Come on, if you're going to unvote lurkerscum, please be a good example in a different way. Also, I suggest you ask fferyllt about Marquis.

3) again it's literally been a day. i know i didn't post when i said i would (oh no someone didn't keep their word on ms.net) but like. come on. it's not 2005. lurking isn't a scumtell (if anything the scum meta is spamposting but i'll cut off because i'm not sure if that applies here yet). town has just as much motivation to not want to deal with things. case in point i pretty much played overwatch all last night because i really didn't feel like coming into d1 scumreads/votes on me and trying to defend myself.

I see the same mechanisms protecting you as I'm used to seeing, so I care very little about your generalities about the current meta. I do like how you point out that it should barely count as lurking in a few different ways only to undercut it by admitting you lurked intentionally.

Is that supposed to excuse your earlier scummitude

?

LQ still looks town to me. Lots of posts I've glossed over admittedly and I probably could use to recheck my read there,

but I don't see the scummitude others do

.

None of Marquis' recent posts look to me as anything other than null, and certainly not giving me town vibes for the language, emotion or any content within as suggested by Gamma. In fact the time spent making those posts could have been used to read the thread, as I'm sure Marquis is aware.

Tchill lack of anything not Postie related after he thought certain posts of hers looked townie is now a concern of mine. That said recognizing that at least some of her posts have merit to them is an encouraging sign and I maintain previous to that his thought processes didn't strike me as particularly scummy.

I still don't know where CES stands in his reads this game and don't know why he thought Marquis was scummy to begin with earlier before the lurking.

I still don't know where CES stands in his reads this game and don't know why he thought Marquis was scummy to begin with earlier before the lurking.

Yeah, things aren't really going quite as planned

; I thought things would develop more helpfully. The main reasons I found Marquis scummy very early on were 1) his general awkward tone early on and 2) the whole "representative" affectation. I think Signs and Void from last Team Mafia is pretty important context here - his early posts here feel really similar. I think both of those things are more significant than his lurking although his lurking has also felt scum-motivated (but I'd be more hard-pressed to explain the nuts and bolts of that feeling).

Why no conclusion?

Not only that, but in 225 he just assumed Llama was doing a slayers gambit of some sort as opposed to just thinking Llama is firing from the hip (which can come from Town and Scum alike), which IIRC Llama neither confirms nor denies which makes his vote on ECS superflux.

Was the distinction I made too subtle to be clear to you or what?

Why no conclusion?

I... posted the conclusion first?

Could you repost your conclusion than?

I would like to thank everyone that asked me stupid questions and ones they did not expect answers to. It's only as a result of your effort that the shining beacons of content in this post become more real.

I can say I really don't like your 'holier than thou' attitude.

[Lycanfire]

I've offered evidence beyond "CES did this, CES did not have to do that".

I've provided wagon analysis, pointed out trends in posting, PoEd a townie to death, PoEd others to being pounced upon, and delivered a flip when there was no morale for it.

I'm fine doing D3P2.

"Cases are scummy" ~ Cogito Ergo Scum

[Lycanfire]

I've been relatively hands off all day and look at all the fun exciting scumhunting going on.

[Lycanfire]

Noticing low activity (I know, pot meets kettle), and I'm guessing people feel a lot like we've already won?

Explain.

[Lycanfire]

btw I want to discuss this now: should we no lynch for 5p if we mislynch today?

Yes, no lynching at 6 is a good idea. EV wise it is always better. The problem begins and ends with the scum choice. Nothing compels the scumteam to kill in this setup. Repetition will result in rocks falling and killing everyone up to Mathblade's discretion. If the other game were to magically be completed before then, it might be possible to reach a consensus of repetition depending on who drew scum in this game assuming a town win in the other ongoing.

It may even be possible to test who scum are by daring them into a draw, but I suspect trying with the state of Team Mafia at the moment would create blowback and intentional slowdown to prevent solving of other game in the time necessary to make that work. I would say it's more pro-town not to go with this route so as to not stifle discussion. If all other games were magically completed or about to be, it would be very viable as a strategy.

Personally I would not support a forced draw under other circumstances.

It's unlikely that scum actually allow the 5:2 lylo. Realistically there are 4 towns going into it.

[Lycanfire]

4:2 vs 3:2 math is hard

[Lycanfire]

Which leaves you and Dunnstral

Jog my memory, why isn't actiondan scum from your point of view?

You only say this because you know you have no defense for your actions. It's called a strawman.

God, what is the hold up? Dunn is so obviously Scum it's painful.

[Lycanfire]

here's a hint: townies don't dodge. they do super town shit like grey did here:

Spoiler: whattowniesdo

There was seemingly no motive for you to make post 61, but you still made it to throw fuel on Sheep vs. Barley. Is that why you're choosing not to answer?

Just what the fuck exactly are you expecting me to answer when you're not asking me a question?

So are you or are you not in the backseat of that Alfa Romeo?

Sure, why not.

VOTE: Elena

[Lycanfire]

Lycan your case is kind of awful. You are saying its a proof of LQ scum, but you spend more time talking about CES than you do about LQ

Don't people read anymore?!

I don't see a single point that makes LQ more likely to be scum in there

More likely that what? What yardstick are you comparing it to? Is LQ not anymore scummy than I said he was yesterday? You're what I like to call "wrong".

just a whole bunch of CES Wifom and confirmation bias.

I'm focusing on what is readable.

NONE of that makes me Scum Though.. Like you just said I did certain things.. How does that mean I am Scum?

Why am I a better vote than Dunn?

You tell me why your vote is justified.

[Lycanfire]

lycan did you know Grey was House

yes i knew that ever since he replaced me in backstabbers, rip house

[Lycanfire]

Spoiler: NSG's CES casework

Cogito Ergo Sum is Scum.

1. Vote / Reads Progression

Let's start back at the start of the game. CES votes llamarble and never explains why. He later calls for dueling marble-marquis wagons, and again never explains why. Llamarble calls him out on this, saying that he doesn't understand why he'd want that as town. This is CES' response:

It's not always about you, 'marble.

He later describes this vote as something he chose to do instead of putting down a serious vote on the marquis wagon.

He calls Marquis the scummiest of the three lurkers (Dunn, Marquis, Wgeurts), and again doesn't explain why. He makes a lot of posts just calling marquis scummy around this time still without explaining why before finally talking about it in 526. What were his reasons? "Awkward tone" and meta from one scumgame in 2015 that he never really explains in any depth. As far as I can tell,

these are still the reasons he's scumreading Marquis

, along with lurking. It goes without saying, but these reasons are both very easily fakeable and are apparently good enough for CES for that single read to last the entire game.

He briefly votes postie, perhaps influenced by marble's questioning of postie in the previous post. He again only explains this much later, saying that postie was more looking good than actually scumhunting. In that same post he says that he obviously agrees with the gist of the eddie case, but that he still thinks it would be an easy thing for postie to focus on if she were scum. All of these opinions are contradictory to eachother.

His Gamma vote comes for Gamma's case in 702, but again he only barely explains this until much later, with a vague comment about Gamma's case being "accusatory" in 823. He goes into more detail in 1567, saying that Gamma was being awkward and looked concerned with how justified his votes were. This is another weak read, and he pretty much entirely drops this point and doesn't bring it up again – you know, after the consensus largely came to be that gamma is town.

I've talked a lot about CES' read on tchill/screenplay, but let's really go over his progression there.
662 – Brings up two points that make tchill scummy, one point that makes him towny. Describes it as a "wagon driven by relatively crude heuristics."
820 – Pretty much doesn't take any stance on tchill, talks about how the lurking doesn't affect his read.
1025 – The swap makes him feel better about the wagon.
1179 – Argues that screen being willing to swap means it's more likely that the tchill slot is scum here.
1185 – When responding to ran, describes how the scumread on postie seems more convincing to him than the eddie part, which "doesn't really sway [him]".
1217 – Hammer.

CES says that he detailed the nature of his read change but he really didn't in any truly explanatory way. He's said how the odds of hitting scum in tchill went up for him, but the only reasons in his iso for this are the swap and screen's desire to survive.

Day two, back on the marquis wagon. Later, when Tsq asks him why he's not on the eddie wagon when he's stated that he agrees with postie's case, he says that that doesn't help with the goal of lynching two scum. What?

He later jumps on the Eddie wagon with no real indication as to why the switch.

Finally, day three, back on the marquis wagon.

---

Let's examine all of the reasons CES has voted people for, this game:
-Lurking
-Awkward wording
-Looking more good than actually solving the game (this vote never went anywhere, however)
-RVS? (Llamarble)

First of all, these reasons are, as a whole, surface level. It was llamarble who said that if CES doesn't lynch scum then he's probably scum himself – given that this is what CES has been pushing people on, I'm inclined to trust that. Next, all of his scumreads have been opportunistic – on players that looked lynchable (notable is that dunnstral is an exception to this, with a very weak reason from CES – this lends credence to my view of the scumteam). Marquis has always been a viable wagon. Tchill and eddie both actually went through. Gamma looked viable for a bit, and that's when CES voted / scumread him. His postie vote followed llamarble placing a bit of pressure there and again stopped afterwards. It's all agenda-driven.

A quick review of team mafia 2015 indicated that he didn't vote lurkers all the time. He seemed to have fairly well-developed reads that don't compare with his fairly robotic scumhunting this game.

---

2. Undeveloped Townreads

Here's a list of every time i could fine where CES calls someone "town":

662 – He talks about a "nice town tell" from tchill but still evidently scumreads him (if his behavior is anything to go off of).

1179 – Says that i had a "townish line".

1397 – Describes how one of quick's posts shows a pro-town mindset, but ultimately comes to the non-conclusion of "It's not hard to find scummy posts by Lickitung but it's not hard to find townie posts by him either."

1596 – Calls lycan town for scumreading him, calls tsq "sheaey", so wants to sheep llamarble's read on him.

1801 – Says that Ran is his strongest townread.

2223 – Says that davsto generally sounds town, but that he needs to take a closer look. This goes away after davsto votes him.

2610 – Quick is solidly town.

I'm pretty sure that's it. He's barely mentioned a large amount of the playerlist, and for the reads that he has mentioned, his reasons are always self-admittedly weak.

He's keeping his options open.

Look back at team mafia 2015 – a huge difference in how he approaches townreads. He's not playing the same at all, and i'm fairly confident it's because he's scum.

---

3. NKA

Let's examine llama and postie and their relation to cogito ergo sum.

First, llamarble's mentions of cogito ergo sum.
215 – Says to lynch CES in lylo no matter what. Can't imagine why CES called for dueling Marble/Marquis wagons if he was town.
343 – Calls CES null, and makes the point that strong players always appear town early on.
347 – Says again to lynch CES in lylo, mentions that he's been buddied by CES as scum before and to not let it happen this game.
408 – Calls CES the first alternate to his scumreads
516 – Put CES in his scumteam.
537 – Reiterates to lynch CES in lylo.
582 – Says that he could could "easily believe" a scumteam with CES in it.
664 – Same as before.
875 – Lays out a lynch order where CES is first on the chopping block if tchill flips town.
930 – This one is important – says to give CES some time,

but if town isn't winning before LyLo, CES is scum

. He also advocates lynching whoever is left in lylo that should've been nightkilled.
1146 Says that CES should be lower on Ran's readslist.
1160 – Places CES in the category of "don't let live to lylo".

As an aside, Llamarble's thoughts on marquis were that there were decent to very good reasons to townread him, and his lynch order had town leaving him alive until lylo. The llamarble kill day one is a point against marquis scum unless marquis is also scum with one of the people in marble's lynch order.

When it comes to postie, there's very little indication that postie would have gone after marquis and she had me as locktown. Her death clears the way for both of those pushes. This point less directly related to CES scum but still something i'd like to talk about later.

---

Now, a look at cogito ergo sum's use of NKA / his use of dead people's reads.

In 1557, CES says that 1160 would be where we should look given the marble kill, but the readslist in that post was heavily based around tchill being scum. One of the things marble was incredibly adamant on was that we not let CES get to lylo if town isn't winning by then. His readslist also wasn't lynch from the bottom up – he explicitly said that there was scum in the good but hard to read players.

In 2690, he says that if he doesn't care about marble's reads then nobody will as a defense of his TSQ read. Not only is this not true in the first place, but it's kind of a misrepresentation of what marble had made clear – people who are alive at lylo when they shouldn't be need to be lynched. The fact that he doesn't mention this nuance or seem to take it into account doesn't do anything to defend his weak TSQ read, and only furthers the idea of a scumteam there.

Let's look at another TSQ interaction based on marble's reads. In 2742, CES says that he feels good about sheeping marble's townread on TSQ because they know each other in real life and thus marble should have a good idea of how to read him. This again is just selectively choosing parts of what marble said.

2223 – Says that postie was killed because scum preferred to take out a scummier player with unknown reads, when postie had known reads outside of eddie.

2334 – Argues that the postie kill was to make me look better and to give me more sway to steer the lynch away from marquis. What? How does postie being dead, someone who had me as locktown, give me

more

town sway as opposed to less? If the scumteam actually cared about protecting marquis, they probably would've killed the person hard tunnelling him from day one – CES himself. The fact that he doesn't recognize this and this whole point are incredibly disingenuous.

When it comes to what dead townies have said and what the nightkills mean, CES cherrypicks the points that agree with him, ignores the ones that don't and makes disingenuous arguments.

---

4. VCA

I'm confident in saying that cogito ergo sum has voted only town this entire game.

The cogito ergo sum wagon never moves anywhere despite nobody really townreading him. Here are the people who have voted CES:
Day 1 – {Lycan, Ran, NSG}
Day 2 – {Eddie, Lycan}
Day 3 – {Lycan, Davsto, NSG, Ran}

Comparatively, the people who have voted marquis (excluding rvs) are:
Day 1 – {Davsto, Dunn, CES, Llama, Quick, Gamma}
Day 2 – {Ran, Eddie, Gamma, CES, Quick, Dunn}
Day 3 – {CES, Quick, Dunn, Ran, Gamma, TSQ}

The cogito ergo sum wagon doesn't take off because scum don't want it to. The marquis wagon does, the same way the eddie wagon did. If cogito ergo sum were town, his wagon should have taken off at some point during this game, but it hasn't – not even after ran was canvassing pretty hard for it.

---

5. Defense of himself

Cogito ergo sum's defense of himself is notably lacking and inconsistent at times.

1662 – Ran brings up multiple valid points against CES, some of which i've talked about myself. His response is just to call the paragraph lots of spin with little substance and provide some self-meta of him as town.

2003 – His defense of the tchill lynch is to go back to his percentages without going in-depth as to why the percentages changed.

2279 – Discredits my push on him by discrediting both of my teammates' opinions, then tries to reduce my scumread on him to just his being on the lynches.

2534 – People (ran) apparently take this as some incredible reason to townread CES. I've responded to this already, but i'd like to reiterate some points.

CES says that he detailed the nature of his read change on tchill – my point is that his read change is justified with incredibly poor reasoning.
I made the point that he wasn't gamesolving, and he responded that he was solving the game and wasn't interested in "brownie points". He's not solving the game. He's not really coming up with any possible partners for marquis, he's not giving any thoughts as to what happens if he's wrong, he's not really sorting anyone else or looking for townreads (as we've gone over).

2571 – CES argues that scum marquis could just be saying that he townreads CES while a buddy of Marquis' pushes on CES, but he doesn't actually say who that buddy would be. In this same post he also talks about how he didn't like the tchill wagon, inconsistent with what he's been trying to tell me about his reasons for switching.

2690 – Basically completely ignores the question of what happens if marquis ends up being town.

2742 – Again discredits reads from my teammates saying that math is uninvested in the game.

---

6. Conclusion

Cogito ergo sum has exclusively voted town, and has voted the low-hanging fruit in marquis every day so far.

He has almost no townreads – he's keeping his options open.

He's avoided talking about what happens if marquis flips town – again, keeping his options open.

He's selectively and disingenuously used NKA and the reads of dead townies to push things like the marquis wagon.

His wagon doesn't take off because scum don't want it to. This stands in contrast to other town wagons that we've seen in the game.

Cogito Ergo Sum is Scum.

Ok I've gone through all of this, with the use of CES's iso as a reference. I am aware of CES's long posts and I'll read them later but I want to just post my initial thoughts first without any other influences. I think it's a bit of a waste of space to go through each individual point so I'll just address the conclusions, and since I have my own thoughts after, I'm going to do what I normally would never and bold my reactions inside the quote below.

6. Conclusion

Cogito ergo sum has exclusively voted town, and has voted the low-hanging fruit in marquis every day so far.

Maybe. (ignoring gamma ftm) I don't think there's substantial reason to think Marquis is town, now or ever, although I do agree that if CES flips scum that'd be the best one I'd ever see. This point is also related to how one views CES's vote on Eddie. I do think there's sufficient progression that that raw vote in 1597 isn't unexpected, and incidentally the translation to "I want to lynch 2 scum instead of 1" meant "I think Eddie is scum but is the easier lynch, so better to vote Marquis now". So it comes down to whether CES's read on Eddie is believable. I'll say what I said before, that it's impossible to know, at least for me. It becomes less believable the more you give credence to the following thought "CES being alive near lylo without scum dead means he's the scum" which I'm sure is what you've got to be thinking here. I'll talk about more of his votes below though.

He has almost no townreads – he's keeping his options open.

I broadly agree. I don't find fault with certain things, like Davsto becoming a stale/"evaporating" read after being a townread, but I'd tend to think scumreads/townreads would have been more palpably defined aside from LQ, Ranmaru, (I'm explicitly not counting Shea as a well-defined townread) and Marquis (only scum read) at this point.

He's avoided talking about what happens if marquis flips town – again, keeping his options open.

He hasn't avoided saying he doesn't have a good bet for others than Marquis but I guess that's the point of this. My thoughts are exactly the same as above.

He's selectively and disingenuously used NKA and the reads of dead townies to push things like the marquis wagon.

With regard to Postie CES's NKA is definitely wrong. I agree that Posite was mislynchable but had clearly known reads (didn't matter some where from RC) and that her dying to bolster your towncred to increase the chance of a non-marquis wagon is way too convoluted no matter the case. I can't determine how disingenuous that could be though because it's honestly incontrovertible what exactly Postie's reads were. As for Llmarble's well as far I see the only thing he's borrowing from that is a town-Shea conclusion which as a side note looks blown out of proportion based on that alone, which is all I've ever seen supporting his read on Shea.

His wagon doesn't take off because scum don't want it to. This stands in contrast to other town wagons that we've seen in the game.

I'd say the wagons so far that had gotten within critical mass of lynching, or have been the lynches were limited to Tchill/Eddie/Marquis/ and I'd say LQ kinda. I don't think that says too much at the moment. I sort of shrug at VCA's without scum flips already though. So shrug.

Cogito Ergo Sum is Scum.

It's certainly possible

There are definitely a lot of points in the above case aside from what I've commented on that I don't think are particularly scummy. The early Llmarble vote and the lack of justification for it, for example. Or that it'd be scummy to be contradictory when scum reading both Postie and Eddie.

That said there are a couple things that stuck out over a reread. The original vote on Postie going unexplained for a good while did strike me as somewhat scummy, even though I found the later explanation just fine. It's not a pro-town mindset to leave it to guesswork as to why you are voting someone as a counter to the lead wagon if you want to get something to stick.

The other more major behavior that was pointed out was that the GE scumread has basically disappeared for inexplicable reasons while I'd say the closest thing CES has to an alternative to voting Marquis is voting me based on recent posts. I'm sure I feel this more than someone else might but to me it does feel like a shot at angling for my lynch instead of an honest reread.

However, while I very much disbelieve the push unto me, I still can't help sympathizing with his Marquis push. Because while it does come down to lurking in a somewhat theatrical way, I think that case is still believable and within town CES's range to make.

In any case NSG I think Dunnstral is essentially guaranteed to be scum if CES is but not necessarily the other way around. I still think Dunnstral/Marquis; Dunnstral/Ranmaru are just as possible, and would prefer that first, so there's a pleasant choice the next day. If CES is town there's going to be a really tough choice between Marquis and Dunnstral.

this is a scum response to NSG's case

[Lycanfire]

Lycanfire, Davsto, NSG, Dunnstral. Tell me what you think of what I have said regarding [Gamma, Quick, Shea], and tell me if you would be willing to compromise to one of them today. I'm going to sleep for now. Ciao.

I haven't seen all of what you've said, I'll add that I was sort of townreading both Gamma and Quick and don't think I'd be comfortable with them being the lynch for today

In general, I am pretty open to compromising elsewhere if needed

Quick: Same question. Who is scum on CEStown flip, and CESscum flip. In fact, everyone answer this. Ces scum = Ces, Shea, Quick.

I'm thinking Action dan

this is a town post

[Lycanfire]

3669 compilation of LQ being scared of the implications of CES' flip

3670 LQ refusing to discredit my CES+Dan+Marquis team as preflip, because combating it directly is dangerous. This is inconsistent.

sorry if these posts were lost on people i have a tendency to overrate others

[Lycanfire]

What the hell is even your problem Lycan? It's like you are upset at Transcend and taking it out on me.

justify your dunnstral vote or swing

[Lycanfire]

Shadoweh truly taking on the role of their predecessor

Lycan what do you think of this post?

no different from how i said shadoweh was the new marquis in white flag tag yourself

[Lycanfire]

It should be obvious for people that I didn't start day calling for Dan to swing for a reason. Powerlynching scum here would have helped solve Team Mafia, but I have a healthy amount of paranoia that Dan may have taken a town PM. Going on LQ is still attacking the people most likely to be aligned with CES.

What have we gotten from the day?

-LQ wants to ignore Dan with a passion
-Dan wants to prod dodge all day
-Ranmaru doesn't want to vote LQ, but I feel like Ranmaru doesn't unvote Marquis D3 when LQ can find a way to manuever onto the hammer. I do feel like posting more vote analysis later, but if I do that, I don't want people taking it as gospel.
-Davsto doesn't want LQ because ~~reasons~~

Other reason why I voted LQ: he salt posted in the Open Setup Discussion thread asking for an evaluation for 12:3 white flag after CES swung. Seriously how is this shit for a scumclaim? Add onto that nomming NSG for a scummie, that's just hilarious. This is given-up scum surely.

[Lycanfire]

No thoughts on the fact it's essentially shading?

if it gets new marquis posting what is the problem?

[Lycanfire]

oh, i guess i didn't vote LQ, but I'm proxy voting him through whatever anti-town fucker chooses to give me their vote later.

[Lycanfire]

What the hell is even your problem Lycan? It's like you are upset at Transcend and taking it out on me.

justify your dunnstral vote or swing

I've said it. Dunns votes are suspicious as all fuck and since Dunn explains fuck all that leaves us back to the beginning of the game where Dunn naked votes Marquis as RVS. I mean Dunn's first post where they vote Marquis is like the perfect representation of Dunn's play as a whole this game.

If you think Dunn has played more Pro-Town than me you are out of your fucking mind.

dunnstral's votes are bad how? you had nearly the same votes. explain.

[Lycanfire]

Tell you what, Lycan. If Dan ends up voting someone else besides Dunn, I'll vote Dan.

Horrible. If Dan is town it strongarms him into voted Dunn. If Dan is scum with LQ Dan can just not vote anywhere else.

Is Dan scum?

[Lycanfire]

That was directed to LQ. I snagged the wrong quote somehow.

LQ: is Dan scum?

[Lycanfire]

@Mod:

Is voting for a draw a valid choice?

[Lycanfire]

How do you feel about the first Unholy Union wagon on Gamma of Shea-Eddie-Dan, Ranmaru? The earlier two votes dropped off, and Dan stayed. He was joined by CES, then LQ. Gamma never went past 3 votes, and those were the two wagons.

Is Gamma always scum with LQ? Start of D3 he went hard on Gamma, which I perceived as opportunism to use my hard D2 scumread on Gamma as a means to gain momentum: interestingly, LQ did the same sod2, on Postie (a CES special), and proxy-RC ended up killed not long after I said LQ never believes he hammers Eddie on a team where Postie can scream him down in daytalk for being an idiot. I don't feel like this is a viable pair.

[Lycanfire]

Ignore my bit about LQ if you want. I read some part about your D3 lynchpool and I'm also jumping around the thread rereading different events and recording responses. I think I internalized something incorrectly and spewed something otherworldly but also dumb.

[Lycanfire]

But yeah you don't seem to have a good reason to go from LQ as scum to LQ as town, all of this feels precipitated on the CES flip, which actually makes LQ look a million times worse.

[Lycanfire]

Worst thing Shadoweh has done all game is pretend to be drunk, not sure if I would argue some kind of LaL...

She's demonstrated to be a voice of reason in posts like 3545, 3558, 3651, 3759. I'm not just saying this because they're voting LQ, I've been letting you anti-town fuckers fight on purpose.

Shadoweh does have to read up. I'm doing it now. I think just about the entire game is readable. The headache zones are early D2 and mid-late D3, but they're also required reading.

[Lycanfire]

Does LQ scum have a reason to kill the other dead townie rather then stop you from tunneling on them some more?

NSG is the EV kill. I didn't actually expect to be killed as the treestump, but yeah she was never dying before administration dicked Team Mafia2018. NSG also fingered Dunnstral before she died. This is something I've never agreed with.

My team is hard claiming cop inno on Dunnstral. Skirt is super done with team mafia and is still popping by every day to remind me that Dunnstral is town and that LQ is scum.

Dunnstral: can you stop fucking your town meta to help your scumgame and do something productive this game you're pissing my team off thanks

more thoughts tomorrow, my reread was helpful but i want to plug it into the vote history to see if i'm vi'ing at all, gnite

[Lycanfire]

okay i think i'm done with this game

lynch LQ

failing that

lynch Dan, and if there's ever a universe where Dan is town, lynch LQ, because he makes a lot of sense on a bunch of outlier teams i'm not going to humor

if everyone decides to ignore me and lynch somebody else, no lynch to a draw or force a kill for the better lylo.

[Lycanfire]

The resistance to lynching Dunn is unreal. That is a weak reason to SR Dunn all in itself.

skirt wanted me to call this out because dunnstral isn't even playing and there's no real resistance to the lynch

[Lycanfire]

also, in a magical fairy world where this game reaches lylo, the vote data esp. when marquis kept reaching l-1 is particularly interesting

[Lycanfire]

innocent children {gamma, dunnstral, shadoweh}
antitownfucker {ranmaru, davsto}
shea {shea}
scum {dan, lq}

if the gamma/marquis wagons were ces' golden gift to the game (which it was not) then accept it for the loss. it's all the more likely that scum obved themselves into inactivity. see my rationalizations on d2, idea of a "scum plan"/"who is the team captain?" dilemma. they got blown out of the water, and the CES hammer onto tchill was something I'm sure he did not want to do, but had to do it after he realized his team were all agreeing with it, but they were all off-wagon.

[Lycanfire]

and despite his post count, lq totally fucked the dog d2. shaded postie, went mia, asked if he could hammer. don't even fucking try that rebuttal.

[Lycanfire]

you're worse than the antitownfuckers because you've been dragged the entire way through the game, resisting good lynches while giving no reasons for doing so.

[Lycanfire]

Got any last words Smellq?

[Lycanfire]

Quick

– I have something mathdino wanted me to share. He strongly agrees that shea is scum, and there's no way that he's ever scum

with

marquis (his most recent sheep of ran onto the marquis wagon should confirm that, i think). From VCA and from interactions, if shea is scum then cogito ergo sum is his most likely partner.

The people lynching marquis are also the people who

you

scumread – why join in on that wagon?

I disagree that shea can't be Scum with Marquis.. Context is important. If they are both Scum, then Shea is in a world of hurt if Marquis gets lynched and flips Scum and shea isn't on the wagon. I have yet to look at shea's read(S) on CES, but that's on the order. Depending on what I see there, I may have more to say.

Long story short, Marquis should NEVER make it to LyLo.

I don't think bussing makes sense in the first place here. Like, you're saying that if marquis got lynched and tsq wasn't on the wagon then he'd look bad, but marquis wouldn't be getting lynched here in the first place if he were scum – it was scum who started the wagon (and i think your reads match mine on this point such that you should agree). If cogito ergo sum were town scum would've almost certainly taken that opportunity, the same espeically so for dunnstral. Scum wouldn't need to be the trailing bus vote on a scum!marquis wagon because a scum!marquis wagon most likely wouldn't be going through in the first place. None of the pushes there have been forceful or convincing enough for them to

need

to sheep on it or look bad.

Marquis doesn't have to make it to lylo if we win before that.

You greatly underestimate how much a player like Marquis hurts Town... You may have a TR on Marq, but let's be honest here, there's just not enough to get the majority of players to TR Marqis at pretty much any stage of the game. That makes Marquis a HUGE liability. With CES, he is at least contributing something to the game and giving us something we can actually read whether for later in the game or just basically clear him based on a Scum!Marquis flip.

You are also way too confident that "we could win before we get to LyLo, so it won't matter." This is playing best case scenario, which is NEVER the way you want to approach the game - especially when you don't even have a Scum lynch and it's D3.

Basically, I think there is a Scum in Marq/Dunn and Marq/CES and CES/Dunn. That's kinda where I am atm.

Mathdino wants to hear creature's thoughts on the marquis wagon, quick.

Creature wants a Shea lynch over CES. That's what he has said about the game today.

[Lycanfire]

Phonepostan

Lq/3269 you later case Marquis as third scum. Do you think there was a bus going from day 1/ how do you feel about that CES comment in that exchange "at times I wavered [day 2]" and do you think that is more likely than Dan's push on Dunnstral being the endgame spoiler?

someone give me a reason to not hammer now
I got aminute

I dont actually care about lq answering and just wanted his answer on paper because I don't think anybody would ask for his gymnastics tomorrow.

Lynch Dan tomorrow, third scum is LQ, maybe Marquis.

[Lycanfire]

Hello I will let the dead talk through me because my team has melded with NSGteam. NSG team illegally reads Dan as town. Mathdino is a big proponent of it for ~reasons~. That doen't make Dan town.

[Lycanfire]

Lycanfire, why do you think Lickitquick voted Dan then?

white flag gambit, he's given up 3+ times in this thread alone already, and out of this thread as well. it got him this far.

[Lycanfire]

LQ's entire day strategy has been pray that I legitimately gave up but I have slightly too much pride to do so even if I think Team Mafia 2018 is a tournament of poop. eddie cane will take the throne.

[Lycanfire]

Maybe if LQ doesn't get lynched in the next 48 hours he'll blame this on Transcend for no reason, even though I called the scumteam yesterday.

Why is such obvious scum allowed to live?

[Lycanfire]

Quick: On my town flip, does your read change on Shea?

Why do you keep suggesting that you're the lynch for the day? All you do is give

Can anyone tell me they're scumreading Ran for something other than him defending CES?

There's a bit of difference between defending someone and trying to make someone preemptively sound like the incoming scum flip's partner, which is what I interpretted a lot of his comments towards Lycanfire as being. Especially since Lycan is 99% not a member of the scum team now. Regardless of that I think his opening post today sounded like pleading. I've been in the desperately pleading not to get lynched position though but somehow I doubt I'm going to be convinced by this train of thought. :V

a fuck ton of town cred for no reason. You had no business going into sod4 and making your first post based on the suggestion that you're being

mislynched

for the day. Hell, if you wanted to be superscum, you could have said the counterwagons of day 3 were all some fucking joke to rile scum, but you didn't do that either. You had two days to think about what you wanted to say when you made 3536 but your conclusion is that you're coming into the day looking bad?

[Lycanfire]

Ran: I don't think you're scum with LQ, because you unvoted Marquis when you were talking with Shea when LQ could have come online to justify a vote onto Marquis. You sidestepped this scenario completely instead of work with LQ.

Are you willing to vote LQ today?

[Lycanfire]

("justify a hammer onto Marquis")

[Lycanfire]

Marquis (5) ~ Cogito Ergo Sum, Dunnstral, Gamma Emerald, Ranmaru, Thestatusquo 2578
Marquis (5) ~ Cogito Ergo Sum, Dunnstral, Gamma Emerald, Thestatusquo, LicketyQuickety 2629

seriously if ya'll aren't looking at the voting data you're missing out

[Lycanfire]

Marquis (5) ~

Cogito Ergo Sum

, Dunnstral, Gamma Emerald, Ranmaru, Thestatusquo 2578
Marquis (5) ~

Cogito Ergo Sum

, Dunnstral, Gamma Emerald, Thestatusquo,

LicketyQuickety

2629

seriously if ya'll aren't looking at the voting data you're missing out

with spooky colors added

[Lycanfire]

[Lycanfire]

libera me to hell

[Lycanfire]

you have to elect more than more person for lylo controller dummy

[Lycanfire]

No, we're not doing that.

there's literally no drawback to this if people think i'm wrong. conveniently, it also gets rid of me.

we could also listen to me today and win instead

[Lycanfire]

Alright, besides Gamma, who should I elect Lycanfire. I want you involved in this process as I'm not solid on the rest of my town reads.

elect shadoweh, precipitated on a dan lynch rn

[Lycanfire]

the refusal to poe people as town is frustrating

what is the harm in being wrong? your scum towns will open wolf and nobody is town at lylo.

this is why both you/ranmaru/davsto were different shades of antitown fuckers for me, we need consensus to go forward

[Lycanfire]

it's like shea wants all my towns to be on the table as potential scum, which i find to be ill intended

[Lycanfire]

suggestion: everybody in this thread votes dan

Ranmaru: unlikely to be with LQ, happily voted LQ.
LQ: potential to be on a Dan team, has voted Dan in the last 24 hours, if he doesn't vote Dan, it's a scumclaim
Gamma: should be willing to vote Dan
Shea: i see you as possible on dan and lq teams

we need one more, and I imagine Dunnstral is willing to hammer. despite what Gammateam seems to think, I'm not as sold on the Dunn-Dan team, even though there's some shit in CES' iso, Dan treated Dunnstral the same way he treated Gamma/Eddie.

[Lycanfire]

LQ is town. Dan is town. Davsto is town.

[Lycanfire]

just going to let people know for tomorrow to ignore most of the vote patterns of late d4 if we get a town lynch. i think early d4 had open wolfing.

[Lycanfire]

Ranmaru: unlikely to be with LQ, happily voted LQ.

failed externalization. i meant to say that ranmaru already poed himself away from lq, when i felt like this was a possible although one of the least likely teams. ranmaru failing to vote for someone again to poe is awful, and if we can't get him on board, it's also a scumclaim.

sorry sometimes my godreads speak through me in mysterious ways

[Lycanfire]

how can i reach these kids

[Lycanfire]

like i can just repeat myself in new and interesting ways that usually works

in 1839 I did "acceptable wagon analysis". among the people that posted before davsto's meta case on eddie, ranmaru and lq threw the most shade. ranmaru hit all the active wagons. LQ was laying pain on people that were never being lynched.

lq postie(8)eddie(2) marq (1) gamma(1) dav(1) ran(1)
postie eddie(9) ran(1) shea(1)
ranmaru marquis(4) dan(1) postie(2) eddie(4) lq(4)
eddie lq(1) ces(1) ran(5) marq(3)
dun postie(1)
dav lq(1)

let's compare this to ces' later post on the likelihood of scumflips two pages later

Marquis: 60%

Eddie: 55%

GE: 30%

Postie: 25%

Dunn: 25%

ActionDan: 25%

northsidegal: 20%

LQ: 20%
Davsto: 15%

Lycan: 10%

TSQ: 10%
Ranmaru: 5%

B

= confirmed town

I

= I infer these are towns

Something I've discussed in my Discord this game day is how LQ has never bothered to interact with me directly, and instead discredits me about the modkill, about how I "blame him for what Transcend did" (though I have no idea how LQ could be involved in this in any way, he and his team had nothing to do with it, and we cannot discuss this matter any further). I'm conftown. I can be interacted with. If he panders to me as the tunneling conftown I am, he's more likely to achieve better results than talking over me and discrediting me. LQ is anti-town.

Compare this to how Cogito Ergo Scum reconciled my tunnel. He said I was town at every opportunity since D1. It's out of the classic scum textbook under the chapter "never recognize reasons why you are scummy, and call other people scum". LQ has behaved the same way today with Dunnstral.

Based on what I've seen so far, I think CES would put his teammates in the middle of the pack. He's a geriatric and knows that people will try to find patterns where there are none, and nothing the scumteam has done has been particularly impressive so far.

In addition see how CES wanted Postie EoD1, and still wanted Postie mid-late D2... Let's see LQ's day opener again

VOTE: Eddie

Postie is either bussing or has a good read here in my estimation. Someone who is good at looking at wagons can analyze Eddie's wagon.

I mean there could have been other reasons but I wanted to point out that it makes sense from the PoV of Eddie being scum.

I am going here:

VOTE: Postie

Pretty much everything Postie writes I look at it in a way that RC has basically scripted for her. I can't prove it, but that's how I feel about it. Consider this a gut read.

Since you're here and this was on the first page I clicked on
LQ wtf why are you sheeping me
I mean keep sheeping me but also how did you get from there to here

Yup, that read hasn't changed. I just think you are bussing so we may as well go along with the bus and sort you later.

That quote from Llama wasn't about the kill; I was pointing out how this is one example of many where Eddie is very obviously playing into a scum wincon/mindset and people need to stop overthinking and just lynch him for it already.

Likely to get scum lynched > is townread though. The latter matters in lategame but means very little right now. But whatever I don't care as long as you're voting Eddie.

This is pretty much exactly the kind of playstyle I would expect from RC. I think RC is in large part playing the game for you.

I'm willing to let the case write itself right now and give screen more time(and rope essentially) to hang themselves with it.

I

never

voted them because I wanted to keep discussion going for the day cause I had a feeling that Srcreen was trying to redeem the slot.

Fucking lol

Did you even notice the fact that as soon as he hit L1, he (Screen) was

immediately

POUNCED on?

What I noticed is that as soon as I voted Postie Screen was lynched. Could just be a coincidence tho.

and there's more but i'm not turning the page in his iso, just go look at my "acceptable wagon analysis" above

in 1604 he hops off the eddie wagon

OK, so what I am seeing here is pretty much the same type of thing that happened to Chill and Screen, namely, that there is a single wagon with very little resistance and not really any other wagons to speak of.

I got what I wanted out of the Eddie wagon, so it's time to move on.

I'm going here to see what happens. I have some shallow reasoning for this vote, but it's more just to see what happens:

VOTE: Ranmaru

(holy shit this tchill/screen comparison again, do i have to drop my wagonomics of d1 again & how his team were all for it?)

he makes ranmaru-davsto wagons in the coming pages

Votecount 2.10

EddieFenix(4)

~ Postie, Thestatusquo, Davsto, Cogito Ergo Sum

LicketyQuickety(3)

~ Marquis, Gamma Emerald, Ranmaru

Marquis(1)

~ EddieFenix

Dunnstral(1)

~ ActionDan

Davsto(1)

~ LicketyQuickety

Cogito Ergo Sum(1)

~ Lycanfire


Not Voting (2): northsidegal, Dunnstral

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2018-02-18 19:30:00)

Sorry for the delay had a lot of work stuff.

LQ gets some votes, later decides to vote marquis with Eddie for some reason (what a helpful readslist!). that's when he goes absent and comes back later asking to hammer.

(reminder that postie died n2)

it wasn't a hammer

if lq genuinely thought he was hammering, we can throw out dunnstral lq and postie lq. still a small chance he was playing dumb. there's no way he misses the unvote with those teammates.

[Lycanfire]

fuck you all for making me effort i don't even want to play this game

[Lycanfire]

people i've poed away from lq: postie (dead n2), gamma (pressured sod3), dunnstral (hard pushed d4), ranmaru (he voted him 10 hours ago)

[Lycanfire]

everyone, i don't think lq can be scum with lq wink wink

[Lycanfire]

:/ I really don't want to be choosing between Ran and TSQ, this is ridiculous.

you are conveniently online to vote the other scum, dan, how does that make you feel?

[Lycanfire]

Can we just lynch Dunn?

[Lycanfire]

notice how scumQ does not demand to be lylo leader even though he's about to be lynched. scumsurrender

Request: 15 player White Flag, 3 Scum

[Lycanfire]

I reread LQ's iso. Admittedly skimmed some of the posts but I'm getting 0 scum vibes. i.e, exactly the same feelings I got before.

Postie's Eddie analysis is strikes me as a town post and is mostly correct, but I don't agree that EF's ISO this game matches his scum game. If I had to pick out a similarity it's that sometimes questions don't lead anywhere — but that's rather normal for everyone regardless.

Ranmaru, in the absence of clear scum reads, I'm sorting people into "town" and "those remaining", which is not out of line where others (yourself included) are approaching this game as well. Kagami is calling this game a town-hunt and I can't help but agree (she also suggests the scum team is competent but I don't agree that has to be the case).

So far my town column is:

TSQ, lycan, Postie, EF, LQ, Llmarble, Ranmaru , Davsto, NSG.

I'm going to read Marquis/CES/screenplay

[Lycanfire]

Lycan, if Dan is scum would he not have just closed out this TSQ wagon and said it was because of deadline?

you mean did i consider his "btw i'm online and not hammering post"? you do know it's not lylo right? i asked you how you felt about being online for the dan flashwagon of justice. why are you voting dunnstral?

[Lycanfire]

there's three scenarios where dan does not hammer you. you found one. good work.

[Lycanfire]

there's three scenarios where dan does not hammer you. you found one. good work.

from my perspective I don't really have to waste much time thinking about the scenario me and dan are scum together.

whats the third one out of curiosity.

the one I suggested? why are you so fixated on being aligned with dan?

[Lycanfire]

Sorry Dan, don't mean to rush you. I'd still like your vote on Shea though. Would you be willing to join me there, or would you prefer to vote me instead at this time?

this is so fucking obviously scum that I don't even know what to say.

why does scum!ran go for you today? he's hella resisted any wagon i've wanted until recently

[Lycanfire]

I would rather take our no lynch right now than lynch dan.

do you want me to

DIE??

[Lycanfire]

It was either CES or Dunnstral and the balance tipped squarely into CES at one point, is my recollection

The vote bloc of myself-Davsto-NSG never moving, Gamma being interested in it, Ranmaru being interested up until they weren't, and myself and NSG being way louder than anyone else is what made it inevitable. No other lynch was going through. Dunnstral was not at all a possibility yesterday. That's revisionist. Only yourself/Marquis/Shea/LQ wanted Dunnstral yesterday. Not exactly the most charismatic bunch. NSG wanted Dunnstral, but only after CES flipped.

[Lycanfire]

jesus christ

[Lycanfire]

Yeah my hope is we all hold hands and vote shadoweh tomorrow. Is it realistic? well, if this End of Day has proven anything, quite possibly!