Amnesiac Mafia: The Movie! That's a Wrap!

[Ircher]

UNVOTE:

I will likely start reading tomorrow.

[Ircher]

I read page one. I have a scum read on Save the Dragons and a town read on Firebringer.

[Ircher]

Your defensiveness is noted.

[Ircher]

I'm probably not going to get a chance to read today. I've been flying all day.

I've heard Dunnstral and Feysal are town while Drixx and Frozen Angel are suspicious.

[Ircher]

Post 26 by Firebringer: "I am going to intermittently continue the scene because i didn't get the role pm i wanted and i am going to have to fun somehow" --> Firebringer loses town points.

Post 40 by DragonEater70: "(Fire please take the hint and stop this madness)" --> Now I just want to eliminate this slot...

Post 99 by Thestatusquo: "I'm incredibly skeptical of people who try to steer conversations towards mech this early." --> I'm not because it happens more often than you would think.

Post 119 by Thestatusquo: "I see value in the question but I don't think I see it in the way you asked it. " --> I don't like this read. It feels too nitpicky.

Post 139 by T-Bone: "Firebringer - 3 (Titus, DragonEater70, Dunnstral)" --> This wagon composition is... something.

Post 146 by Feysal: "Might as well explain where I was going with this, since I just learned my idea would not work" --> Town.
---
I read through page 7 yesterday. I have:

Feysal - Town
Firebringer - Toss up
Titus - Maybe scum?
Thestatusquo - Maybe scum?

Based on those pages.

[Ircher]

No broken bones so...

Hammer time.

VOTE: DragonEater70

I haven't read much from Dragon this game but from a past experience perspective, this is likely flipping town.

[Ircher]

ircher are you going to like...not say anything about your mason partners claim or anything at all?

I was never pinged, but yes, we are masons.

[Ircher]

I'm not satisfied with a situation where the only two players who can vouch for the Mason/Lover stuff are kuribo and Ircher

Why is that unsatisfactory?

[Ircher]

I'm not satisfied with a situation where the only two players who can vouch for the Mason/Lover stuff are kuribo and Ircher

Well you're scum so your opinion is useless

VOTE: kuribo

VOTE: Klick

[Ircher]

I'm here. Here's why Kuribo is smart to obfuscate on if the lover has actually posted in the PT unless they are in danger. A smart lover encourages Kuribo to lie.

Scenario 1: The lover is town - Scum don't know who the lover is. The lover could be Feysal or someone they feel is pocketed. Shooting Kuribo becomes a risk of eliminating a lover role without benefit (supposing dead slots mean the role goes away). If scum know who the lover is, then the risk for them goes way down and they can control the nightphase.
Scenario 2: The lover is scum - Scum shooting Kuribo just takes the lover role out of play for them.
Scenario 3: The lover is Keysal - See one.

The only person time town needs to know the lover is a) if they are at risk of elimination or b) they're a protective role.

The benefit of kuribo and Ircher's claim being backed up further brings more value than any of this stuff though
Who cares if scum can slightly optimise their N2 action in a town!kuribo world when we could actually get significantly further solving today by having the info now

It's not a slight impact to have double death.

[Ircher]

Guys, let's wagon Dunn versus Black and see what shakes out.

Why Dunnstral and why Black? It's not that I necessarily disagree, but I want context before I join a bandwagon.

[Ircher]

Ircher while ur here. Can u confirm ur role yesterday was lover not mason and that ur flavor was Juliet

My flavor was Romeo. kuribo said he had Juliet yesterday. (He claimed Romeo as his flavor today.) Yes, we were lovers.

[Ircher]

Guys, let's wagon Dunn versus Black and see what shakes out.

Why Dunnstral and why Black? It's not that I necessarily disagree, but I want context before I join a bandwagon.

Because they are two big scumreads I have right now and they both drew heavy attention yesterday. Yet, certain slots remained vote parked on Dragon which forced our hand.

Can you quote some of your posts where you explained why you scum read them? I haven't seen them, so this doesn't give me enough to work off.

[Ircher]

It's the more sensible claim. If we flat out claim lovers, we're basically asking scum to kill us both. A mason claim at least leaves that element in the air and makes the risk of one of us getting protected from the kill a greater concern.

Also, I'll go on record and say this was something that Snake and kuribo had already agreed to before I repped in. There wasn't a compelling reason from my perspective not to go with it; the argument for claiming mason over lover had already been presented in the PT and was sound.

[Ircher]

Guys, let's wagon Dunn versus Black and see what shakes out.

Why Dunnstral and why Black? It's not that I necessarily disagree, but I want context before I join a bandwagon.

Because they are two big scumreads I have right now and they both drew heavy attention yesterday. Yet, certain slots remained vote parked on Dragon which forced our hand.

Can you quote some of your posts where you explained why you scum read them? I haven't seen them, so this doesn't give me enough to work off.

I literally spent a good chunk of D1 interrogating Black and Dunn...

How could you AND kuribo miss that?

I've only read to page 7 and the day 2 posts. I traveling Friday, working Saturday-Monday, then traveling again today. It didn't give me a lot of time to read.

[Ircher]

That's been a huge issue I have had with Black. Words but no solid position. I'm willing to give a little room for Black today on mech but Black is my primary suspect.

Drixx's last claim post does check.

Incredibly stupid

but checks. It could be scum aware of a loyal role in existence but a gambit if it is. Willing to let it go for now.

You say the nicest things.

I do. I apologize. That was a bit harsh. The move still wasn't smart but I could have communicated that less harshly and with more respect. I was frustrated because I expect better of you.

I'm not even sure what you felt was bad or why.

Using the word stupid was wrong. I apologize for that.

That still doesn't help me understand what you thought was bad, or why. Can you shed some light on that?

Using a commuter, unless you feel in dire threat, only serves to disrupt roles. It's also not verifiable that the commute existed. It's absolutely negative utility, even if you noticed not to target you. Miller etc claims are due post 1 for this reason. The play is just completely backwards for the current meta of the site.

1.) If anyone was foolish enough to target me after the last post I made before end of day, that's on them. I was very clear that targeting me was bad.
2.) My role was already confirmed by someone else, AND before you made this quoted post.
3.) I haven't played in like 3 years, so how am I expected to know the current meta of the site?

I chose not to claim post 1 because the role was temporary, and because I had hoped to play out a day one that might get me shot at during the night. When it was clear the day was ending, I went ahead and made the post I did mostly to keep any utility from being wasted on me, with a longshot that scum might target it.

1) Again, you're supposing that anyone who doesn't act the way you expect is dumb. Your post, to the uninformed, was wifom. No one knows why you make that post, town or scum included.
2) I'm not seeing your point.
3) Millers/Ascetics/etc claiming post 1 is the meta. Period. Has been for as long as I can remember. I'm shocked none of your team said that (as I would have expected your team to tell you that).While a commuter is arguable, using it basically means you're ascetic which means you should have claimed it if there was any chance of you using it.

I still see no upside to giving scum the keys to the kingdom.

Drixx, what's your full role name Commuter - The person who runs away?

My role name was already provided by someone else. I'm astonished you've missed it and then also didn't go back to find it when I told you that you missed it earlier.

I disagree that commuter is the same as Ascetic. I've already explained my reasoning. Your assertion that my post wasn't an effective warning is just wrong. There was no reason for any town player to believe that post was WIFOM instead of what it said it was. The only players who would have wondered about that post would be scum, and here you are implying that the post made you wonder.

Nah, it could qualify as WIFOM to town if a town player thinks you're scum using it to avoid getting tracked to a kill (or something like that).

[Ircher]

Theoretically if someone targets GiF tonight and it succeeds I'm pretty sure that makes him scum

If it fails then he's conftown? I'm pretty sure that's how the mechanics work right?

No, this isn't how it works at all.

[Ircher]

Wait I misread that. I'll have to reconsider.

[Ircher]

I feel it would be thematically appropriate for scum to be "puppet masters" who already know all the amnesiac roles. Maybe they even have a factional ability to affect how they are assigned.

[Ircher]

I don't like that I'm one of your bottom reads and your reasoning makes more sense for a null read. I also don't feel like I should need to explain to you why I am town, I think that you should have to explain why I am a valid vote and I should get to respond to that. The ball is in your court, don't ask me to pick up your slack.

I don't really know how I'd town case myself but I feel I've been giving opinions on both reads stuff and mech stuff and you haven't challenged me on any of that.

VOTE: Dunnstral

Okay, you're scum because you're more interested in justifying your position in the game than in helping me see that you're town.

I don't see it. What position is Dunnstral trying to justify here?

[Ircher]

I don't like that I'm one of your bottom reads and your reasoning makes more sense for a null read. I also don't feel like I should need to explain to you why I am town, I think that you should have to explain why I am a valid vote and I should get to respond to that. The ball is in your court, don't ask me to pick up your slack.

I don't really know how I'd town case myself but I feel I've been giving opinions on both reads stuff and mech stuff and you haven't challenged me on any of that.

VOTE: Dunnstral

Okay, you're scum because you're more interested in justifying your position in the game than in helping me see that you're town.

? You asked me to town case myself

And then you voted me for "justifying my position"

Yes, instead of discussing what actually makes you town here

I gave the thoughts that I have on you
What are your thoughts on you?

What is the point of Dunnstral giving their thoughts on themselves? Obviously, Dunnstral is going to argue that they are town as anything else is an admission of guilt. I'd rather Dunnstral focus on finding scum than placating the people scum reading them.

[Ircher]

Anyway, going to sleep on this. Thanks for engaging with me on it, I feel like this was productive.

The whole Klick / Dunnstral interaction over the past page reads as SvS.

[Ircher]

Look for the fucking crumb. Quote my posts where you think the crumb is if you want, and if you can't find it, then it's not it and something messed with my night action.

Is this really that important to take up at least half a page? Like either Black sees it or doesn't, but I don't see how if Black doesn't see it already, this is going to make Black see it.

[Ircher]

I had you as my top scumread because I thought you didn't get my role. I'm conftowning you now because you did get my role. Read between lines for fucks sake

...I don't think anyone of us really get what you two are alluding to here...

[Ircher]

In case anybody missed it, I'm conftown

Suck it Shea and Titus. God damn

No, you aren't.

[Ircher]

So we have Kuribo aligned with Ircher, Black only scum if PB is and PB scum unlikely. It is theoretically possible PB detected crumbs and lied about the target but unlikely.

That's a decent start.

[Ircher]

Ircher
kuribo

Black
Dunnstral
Pink Ball

Save The Dragons
Firebringer

GuyInFreezer
Drixx
Frozen Angel
Thestatusquo

Titus

Something like that?

Why are kuribo and I crossed out?

[Ircher]

Oh we do. I'll just claim it at this point. Everything about my role is already out in the open

I'm a Caterer. I can target someone tonight. If they are town they get my role. If they are scum or if they die then the role is put back into the pool and randomly given to someone

PB was Caterer yesterday and he's claiming to have targeted me

Also, I'm fine with Black town or scum with PB.

Yeah both of these could make sense. I don't think PB can be confirmed town here. There's a chance he is scum that couldn't use the role and it got randomly assigned to me

And there's also a chance that YOU are scum, and the role was returned to the pool and then assigned to you.

So we have Kuribo aligned with Ircher, Black only scum if PB is and PB scum unlikely. It is theoretically possible PB detected crumbs and lied about the target but unlikely.

That's a decent start.

Black can be scum if PB is town. It's a low probability but it's in the possibility space. And again I put BOP on you because you should have realized this.

I don't think I can possibly decode whatever the fuck is going on between you and pink ball as either of you being conf town since I don't know what the fuck you're talking about and quite frankly I don't really think either of you do either?

Thank fucking god I thought I was the only one

If PB actually targeted Black with his role, Black is town.

That's not actually necessarily true.

I get having some skepticism/wanting to point out a potentially missed scenario, but this feels almost like you don't want people to town read Black. Once would have been enough.

[Ircher]

Oh and there's also the chance that Black and PB are scum together. Assuming they are scum and they can get town roped today and get a kill through tonight, then Black can claim to have passed it along to someone who claims something else already and that gets a "mislim" tomorrow as well, and then another night kill ... I believe that would be LYLO, assuming 4 scum.

I'm pretty busy at work today ... would appreciate responses.

For what it's worth ... what Black and PB just did is the kind of play that appeals to me as scum. Make the town think I'm conftown (or very nearly so) and run the table.

Occam’s razor etc

Did you really just try to say "Occam's Razor" in response to me pointing out that it could be a (very good, if so) scum gambit? If we consider them conftown and then do what people naturally do and follow their lead, they literally get a free pass to LYLO from this claim.

Yes I said occam’s razor
Is it possible that it’s a scum gambit? Yes.
Is it likely that it’s a scum gambit? Hell no

this is actually a logical fallacy. You cant decide its likelihood from your perspective.

Think vice versa, if they/one of them are scum then its 100% a scum gambit of a sort
if they are town then they are telling the truth.

so without knowing their alignment you cant decide which is more likelier cause this is a conditional likelihood. you cant just assume people are telling the truth before applying occam's razor. that doesn't work like that.

Probability is the wrong concept to apply here. Occam's razor isn't so much about the likelihood as it is about the number of assumptions you have to make for an argument to work.

[Ircher]

I don't see why a theoretical scum!Klick chooses to repeatedly push a bunch of weak leads and then give up on them after getting predictably towny-looking content from each of them

Why are you supposing here that you would get "predictably towny-looking content"? If that's what you expected to have happen regardless, why make the push at all?

[Ircher]

Shea, you're right, this discussion about PB and Black makes me wanna yank my own teeth out of my face and swallow them

I am so not reading half that shit

Tf? I think it's an important conservation to read but ok

Fine I guess I'll read it at some point

Literally just glazes my eyes over and makes my brain feel smooth the more I read it though

I think you're fine to skip it for the most part.

[Ircher]

@FA from my point of view, Black is conftown. I am conftown from my perspective too lol. What I said is that is feasible that anyone else doesn’t conftown both of us, but I’d expect that at least people conftowned Black. Black would be town if I were scum too, there’s no way anyone really thinks this was coordinated

I shouldn't even really be conftown from your POV tbh. 95% town yeah, but I think we have to assume the role could have randomly found it's way back to me if I was scum

I still think that would be bastard.

I do agree with you, I just don't see how we can assume this game isn't a little bastard-y

Bastard means something very specific (or, rather, a couple things that are very specific.)

In order for a game to be allowed to run and be bastard those things have to be declared. This game has not been declared as bastard so it can't have bastard design or mechanics technically speaking.

I think I disagree with pinkball that this would be bastard though.

On which axis?

(see!? This is me trying to do mech are you proud of me yet?)

I agree with this. It is not lying to have "random assignment" result in the role going back to the target:

[Ircher]

In case my previous post isn't clear enough: I am of the opinion we treat those four as if they are town for today. I would encourage them all to give as much thoughts and reads as they can, for obvious reasons.

So in a world where they are off limits, the rest of the list is my current ordering.

I'm pretty happy with my Klick vote right now.

[Ircher]

Would people scumread drixx if the dayvig thing didn't happen

I didn't see the day vig thing, but I'm not town reading Drixx.

[Ircher]

I'm at the bottom of 143 as far as Day 2 posts go.

My reads are something like:

Ircher
kuribo
Black
Thestatusquo
Pink Ball

GuyInFreezer
Titus
Firebringer
Save the Dragons

Dunnstral

Frozen Angel
Drixx
Klick

[Ircher]

Anyway, going to sleep on this. Thanks for engaging with me on it, I feel like this was productive.

The whole Klick / Dunnstral interaction over the past page reads as SvS.

How do I come out of that interaction looking like mafia?

The whole exchange came across as not authentic. Klick is pressing you to explain why you are town (which is rather pointless because most people are going to profess their innocence and manipulate their play in a way that this isn't going to help much.) You then at first refuse but ultimately relent, and the way you executed that comes out as pretty staged. I do think you come out looking better than Klick through the whole interaction, but it still really feels staged and unnatural like two scum buddings distancing from each other but then finding a way to magically town read each other. (Okay, Klick is the one who gets the magical town read on you; I don't think you said whether you town read Klick or not after the exchange, but that's beside the point.)

[Ircher]

im here for the next half hour.

what order we claiming last role cause i feel like just claiming.

I didn't even act last night.

Not only do I know from mechanics that ircher is town, I got Romeo today. I was Juliet on day one, meaning I got the role ircher had yesterday. Ircher is 100% confirmed town to me. Even beyond a mechanical level.

How is ircher conf town to u just because he was a lover.

I feel like this is dumb from a mechanics standpoint and ur not dumb so explain how im the idiot

Scum get amnesiac role PMs

Scum do not get the actual roles.

I literally don't understand this portion.
I am probably too stupid.

So basic summary is ur saying Ircher had a role pm that scum wouldn't or couldn't see. They would just get a lover role pm but wouldn't get a PT because scum don't get that portion.

Nope still not making sense. Need my expert Jingle to explain it to me.

The Mafia Team will be assigned Amnesiac Roles in the same random manner, though the roles will not be granted to them.

So wait all the scum in this game are basically Goons with "safe claims" not really safe cause

they can't use the roles.

Going to point this out as it looks like they didn't understand the setup. But I'm also going to point out that I asked them if they read the setup in my very first post this game in post 53, and that in post 98 they make a comment about the setup and say town should mass claim and that Alisae had looked over the setup.

-town points for spelling Mississippi wrong

Wish I could blame it on chatgpt but i wrote it all myself.

I am going to intermittently continue the scene because i didn't get the role pm i wanted and i am going to have to fun somehow

What does this mean? Did you read the setup?

Okay so I don't see the purpose in this question at all. The idea here i guess from Dunnstral is

he thinks I didn't read the setup

, I don't know what this tells a town or scum dunnstral if I did or didn't.

I have not read setups beforea s both alignments.

Couldn't Firebringer read the setup but not understand the implications? This doesn't seem that contradictory.

[Ircher]

I didn't even act last night.

ohh and also the two people i target are informed they are visited by an arbiter when i visit

btw my claim for last night is no action.
didn't see the point in using my role.

FB 3447 caught my attention. The first time you said you didn't act I thought you could be doing something to avoid giving too much information about your role, but then you posted your role and you said again that you didn't use it. I'm quoting specifically the part that says that your targets would be informed they were visited because I don't understand why would you NOT use this power if it could get you conftowned (as if, someone would confirm that you successfully used an amnesiac role)

woah

I would like more people to talk about this.

This is completely expected from FB, and I think NAI. I cannot recall a time where I saw FB trying to work mech advantage in a game. In fact, my brain says that FB, as town, has actively worked against me and Cerb when we were mechanically breaking a game. A couple times.

And Alisae? As I pointed out, they apparently read the setup.

Oh that's a good point. Hmm....

[Ircher]

cause if im scum the way to go wouldl be claiming VT as someone else said.

Or claim vt
Or something that doesn't have an action to submit
Or like anything that isn't actively bad-looking

If there's a rolecop then this plan falls apart. Or if there are a set number of VT's or something

I think at some point you have to take a risk that you get hosed by something unexpected. I don't find this argument particularly compelling given the designer and reviewers of this setup.

[Ircher]

I think your takeaway from this should be that I'm town and have a number of accurate townreads btw

You only know if your townreads are accurate if you're scum

???
Where do I imply that anyone should 'know' their townreads are accurate
How is this relevant

It's your wording. "I think your takeaway from this should be that I'm town and have a number of accurate townreads btw." You both could be wrong about some of your reads, but you are supposing that since you two agree on certain reads, that makes them accurate.

[Ircher]

I'm at the bottom of page 156. My reads have not changed in any substantial manner.

[Ircher]

Anyway, going to sleep on this. Thanks for engaging with me on it, I feel like this was productive.

The whole Klick / Dunnstral interaction over the past page reads as SvS.

How do I come out of that interaction looking like mafia?

The whole exchange came across as not authentic. Klick is pressing you to explain why you are town (which is rather pointless because most people are going to profess their innocence and manipulate their play in a way that this isn't going to help much.) You then at first refuse but ultimately relent, and the way you executed that comes out as pretty staged. I do think you come out looking better than Klick through the whole interaction, but it still really feels staged and unnatural like two scum buddings distancing from each other but then finding a way to magically town read each other. (Okay, Klick is the one who gets the magical town read on you; I don't think you said whether you town read Klick or not after the exchange, but that's beside the point.)

What do you expect me to do differently as town there? I did what was asked of me.

Not engage after your initial post or two explaining why you didn't think it was useful.

[Ircher]

Well VCA assumes that each votes are with specific purpose, right? Why would someone who plays around with VCA forfeit a valueable piece of information by hammering a townread? It’s not like we were being pushed to hammer. We had like day and a half left when Titus hammered.

Eh, a day and a half is cutting it close. You don't want to be scrambling in the last 6 hours to get a hammer in. I do think it's interesting though that Titus hammered someone she was town reading.

[Ircher]

Demonstrate how you can confirm yourself as town with a Jailkeeper here

Block someone, not Black, who confessed to having a role. Unless that role is doctor, their action failing would confirm me.

Most roles don't receive feedback, so I don't see how this works reliably.

[Ircher]

Black - Dead
Drixx
Dunnstral
Firebringer
Frozen Angel
GuyInFreezer - Black Clear - Hypo
Ircher - Linked
Klick - Dead
Kuribo - Linked
Pink Ball - Linked
Save The Dragons
Thestatusquo - Hypothetical [not revealing X]
Titus - Linked

This leaves Drixx, Dunn, Fire, FA, StD

Versus Kuribo Ircher Titus Shea, GiF

With Lovers and Caterer in play.

?????

[Ircher]

I'n at the bottom of 166. I think Titus is looking a little worse now.

[Ircher]

HOW?

If either flips, gg.

If too many town link, we can link pools together. Scum get forced arguments.

Every scum kill confirms another player as town.

For instance, if Kuribo ever dies, Ircher is conftown.

If PB does, Black is likely conftown.

They then must kill the linked players.

Why does kuribo have to die first for me to be confirmed town? I find this wording to be a bit weird.

[Ircher]

I have almost 0 time to even read this game at this time so I'm just tagging along and will lurk till I have actual time.

Its stupidly convenient how everyone's focus shift on me when I go a bit inactive cause of real life. I'm really busy cause I'm studying PHD and I work and I don't have weekends to spare. like I really shouldn't be playing and only reason I'm playing is cause its team mafia, and it makes me feel bad that I'm not putting in real effort

I'm gonna say this in case a wagon shifts on me that I think the scum were mainly the people avoiding dragon eater and not the ones pushing him cause I still think he played scummy and the way people stayed away from dragon eater. I haven't been reading the game and I'm like what 10 pages behind if not more but I'm not scum. If you wanna form a wagon on me, force each other to explain their scum read on me in detail and not just throw a random wagon so at least if I get elimed you get info out of the wagon itself.

-----------------------------------------

anyways I saw titus claim I can confirm that my role is not active and a role block has 0 effect on it.

The only reason I said I'm not vt is that no one else claimed to have my role tbh not that its anything special. I already crumbed heavy what I am and it will be irrefutable in future phases when others also have the roles anyway cause its a very rare thing that's used in this game and its obvious when you know what you're looking for.

my role means this game is almost definitely single ball btw.

Who was actively pushing you? Yes, a lot of people don't exactly have town reads on you, but I think that's to be expected when you are lower volume and lower activity. It's the nature of PoE.

[Ircher]

Alisae wants everyone to explain their klick scumread

Also 4273 is very townie post

I would say the majority of it was the interaction with Dunnstral that read really fake. Titus has been looking worse over the past few pages though.

[Ircher]

Klick is town

Votes don't work if Klick and Dunn are town.

1) Give me a reason why Shea turns if Klick town.

2) Give me a reason why Klick solely tunnels if town.

3) Give me a reason why we won't confirm me if Klick is town.

4) Give me a reason Klick isn't dead if Klick is town.

5) Give me a reason why Dunn has no content if Dunn is town.

6) Give me a reason why all mech town townread me yet I'm a wagon.

This is scum saving Klick and Dunn.

3) I don't think Klick is tunneling anyone at this point in the game. They want you to engage.
4) I would not expect Klick to be dead at this point, but I can see the point about the wagon having some resistance.
5) Dunnstral has content.
6) [Citation Needed.]

[Ircher]

Ircher you've been tippity tapping around Titus's wagon, how about joining it and ending this day

Are we ready for the day to end?

[Ircher]

HOW?

If either flips, gg.

If too many town link, we can link pools together. Scum get forced arguments.

Every scum kill confirms another player as town.

For instance, if Kuribo ever dies, Ircher is conftown.

If PB does, Black is likely conftown.

They then must kill the linked players.

Why does kuribo have to die first for me to be confirmed town? I find this wording to be a bit weird.

Vice versa is also true.

That's not the issue I had with your wording.

Also just going to give

preliminary intent to hammer

(assuming my vote would be hammer). I might not actually follow through, but Titus has at least until I'm fully caught up (about 6-7 pages) before I would hammer.

[Ircher]

Why not

How about he claimed mason?

[Ircher]

Ideally Black would say 1 name.

Agreed, but I'm not gonna argue with her, not worth it. Made a beautiful post after 2 days of a back and forth with Jingle and the answer to it is "sorry, I don't want to" lol

Frustration felt. I'm half giving up. If I can't lead a horse to drink when alive, what makes me think they will when I am dead.

@Ircher, Then I don't get it.

It's the way you're 100% confident we'll flip town but at the same time, it seems like you aren't actually confident that we are both town in the present. Whereas with Pink Ball/Black, you explicitly state "likely" indicating you acknowledge the other possibility however remote it may be.

[Ircher]

@Klick Part 1- Him applies to Fire not Drixx. Please respond properly rather than twisting.

I misinterpreted what you said because it wasn't clear. Please respond properly rather than twisting. Which has essentially been your approach to every single response you've made to me in this day phase, fwiw.

@Part 2 - It's not about specifics. It's the amount.

Ok

How many things did you get wrong in this game that you wouldn't have gotten wrong if you were scum, and which specific things are they
And 

why

 is that the case
What about your scum play means that you wouldn't do that as scum.

You're avoiding the point of most of the questions I ask you.

Literally std confirms jailkeeper.

Scum aren't going to have a block too.

Unless you think StD is my partner, there's no way I am scum.

You getting STD's role card does not in any way impact the likelihood that scum have a blocking ability.

Yes it does. No safe claim.

You're going to have to be more clear! This doesn't mean anything to me

I'm assuming I'm just never going to get a response to these

This is serious? Thought it was grandstanding.

The mods would never give scum a role that forces a CC.

It doesn't force a CC if scum keep quiet about their special power.

[Ircher]

(expired on 2023-05-02 07:34:51).

Ircher
kuribo

Thestatusquo
Pink Ball
Black

GuyInFreezer
Save the Dragons

Dunnstral

Frozen Angel

Drixx
Firebringer

Klick
Titus

[Ircher]

VOTE: Titus

[Ircher]

I'll wait for everyone to check in case someone counterclaims Fire, but otherwise, my vote is going on Klick.

[Ircher]

But why would scum Pink Ball remove Black from the PoE?

[Ircher]

The problem is that town has been pretty universally wrong so far in this game, at least on who they have decided to pursue as a vote. No one has a good solid scum read that is also correct.

This would be true in the situations you propose we sheep a leader as well.

[Ircher]

I think saying fb is a reasonable target is not the same thing as theorizing immediately black must have targeted fb

I think that given the deflection attempt it's essentially the same

Either way it's flailing scum trying to wiggle their way out of what's coming to them

+1

[Ircher]

anyways I saw titus claim I can confirm that my role is not active and a role block has 0 effect on it.

The only reason I said I'm not vt is that no one else claimed to have my role tbh not that its anything special. I already crumbed heavy what I am and it will be irrefutable in future phases when others also have the roles anyway cause its a very rare thing that's used in this game and its obvious when you know what you're looking for.

my role means this game is almost definitely single ball btw.

oh and I still can be targeted I'm not claiming ascetic or some shit.

I am interested in this

So I will assume that everyone at least claimed targets or will do that, and I will claim that I targeted no one last night.

so I don't have much time for the game, right now, I have some notes written considering the dragon flip that I will post tomorrow hopefully if I manage to sit behind the game for like 2 hours to sort everything up.

I think there are a lot of clues regarding how the dragon eater wagon was handled yesterday, and about who might have been informed about it, so it's a good idea to dig that grave a little to see what we get.

This is the only post you gonna get out of me today cause I already am late for doing something else and I'll be so exhausted in an hour and half from now when I'm done with that.

so see you all tomorrow

I will say my claim was in this post for now, till everyone else claim their day 2. The main reason I didn't claim immediately yesterday was to not let scum "use this utility to fake claim things" as I knew it must have been came from the two dead slots in day/night 1 to me and scum should not have seen this role at least till last night phase so if someone else claims the role I claimed in this post or we get an investigation result concerning it we can confirm the result when I claim

I don't agree with you being the last one to claim.

[Ircher]

There was no point for an early claim as it doesn't mess with watcher/tracker its just an extra explainable result anyway if those role even exists.

If a tracker targets you they are wasting their action

No, they are getting a result that confirms my claim and theirs. I made sure there was no escape from me claiming this role in day 2. I went on explaining how rare the role is how passive it is, how RB has no effect on it, how not important the role is in general, and I used literal words of the claim and explicitly said I claimed it on my first post of day 2 which doesn't have any other crum in it to be used for fake claims, so my claim would still be irrefutable

and some one else must be with the role today anyway so the existance of this role is not a mystery in a setup with roles that swap hands like this - wont stay a mystery forever.

so no the track wouldn't be wasted at all

How does it confirm you? Couldn't hou be scum that performs the kill?

[Ircher]

Since fucking when is the meta that people use checks on the slots they're most certain are scum lmfao

It's surely not uncommon to cop your scum reads.

[Ircher]

VOTE: Klick

[Ircher]

I would argue Frozen Angel hasn't shown much interest in the game to begin with. I'd be more convinced it was a town tell if Frozen Angel was more invested in the game.

[Ircher]

I would like for us to just eliminate scum rather than stall and drag out the day.

[Ircher]

I don't see enough traction on Klick today to think that there's bussing involved. I think the scumteam has no space for bussing this game because of the mechanics so they'll vote for each other only if it's inevitable to save their partners.

I like a FA counterwagon because I think they're scum together. I like it just in theory though, because dividing town onto two scum wagons could lead to an impasse. BUT! You force scum to actually commit into a wagon on themselves. Whoever takes the longest to decide which wagon to join is scum.

This is a very weird post. There's 5 votes on klick and 2 vanity wagons.

We're like a day into the day.

What is your suggestion for where the scum are if they're not bussing?

Not participating. Klick + Frozen Angel has 2/4 acum, guaranteed.

[Ircher]

N3 lovers claim please

No lovers posted Day 3/Night 3.

[Ircher]

How do you know we are not in Elo GiF?

Do you really think there would be 4 mafia in 15p

Yea.

[Ircher]

There's no fucking lovers for the rest of the game, except for kuribo again on D2 and Ircher on D3 if I understood correctly what he said?

kuribo is conftown via visionary now

Yes, you read correctly.

[Ircher]

Ok yeah I got paranoid for a second that StD and Ircher were scum together but StD's answer made me believe they weren't and it was just Ircher but Ircher is conftown so back to square one

???

Why did you think I was aligned with Dragons?

[Ircher]

Only by play, this is how I'm at right now:

GiF
Dunn
FA
Drixx
StD

If this is ELo, I don't mind voting any of the last four. Off chance this is MELo/not ELo I'd rather have a longer day.

does this really sound like the scum team that's managed to keep out of the crosshairs and lead town on mislims

It doesn't seem /too/ unreasonable. Sure, Drixx and Frozen Angel aren't doing much, but the rest are. Also, scum don't have to "lead" town on mislims. They can often get by just giving the slightest nudge in the most favorable direction.

[Ircher]

here's my claims

n1 JK targeted Kuribo
n2 Tracker targeted Shea got NO RESULT
n3 catalyst vig tried to kill Ircher, not successful

Sorry, but this doesn't seem like a town aligned set of actions.

[Ircher]

I completely trust STD claims

Why? This post needs more elaboration for the rest of us to follow.

[Ircher]

also wouldn't i just claim VBC or something isn't that effectively the same as claiming this random vig with a gate no one's ever heard of

what's anti-town about it

There's an incentive to claim stuff as scum; just claiming VBC every day is a sure fire way to find yourself in the PoE.

[Ircher]

Did they say why?

[Ircher]

at this time I think we have some possibilities:

1 - kuribo and richer are town, this means shea is town I guess, the scum is in Drixx, Dunnstral,GuyInFreezer, Pink Ball, Save The Dragons which means a 4/5 from that group

2 - kuribo and richer are scum and for some weird reason they claimed something like a masonry early that no one else confirmed, in this scenario shea can be town or scum I guess cause they got the caterer for real or not but its most likely town unless if scum planned to claim visionary cast like that (?), and then the remaining scum are hidden in rest.

regardless there are 2 to 4 scum in Drixx, Dunnstral,GuyInFreezer, Pink Ball, Save The Dragons

am I right with my math?

What are your reads? I keep seeing you post a lot of mech so it's hard for me to get where your current stances are.

[Ircher]

jesus christ do something if you're so goddamn confirmed town

We did. We killed Klick (even though Klick flipped town).

[Ircher]

It's shade because we in fact did confirm the role targeted me. The only way that's not true is if me and kuribo are scum together and by extension ircher too.

You made a sarcastic comment but the premise of it is false unless you think I'm scum somehow. That's like the whole point that gif is making that you're responding to.

i don't see how this tracks how would scum know kuribo's going to use the visionary on you if you're both town.

also what if it's an X-shot rb

I'm not sure I follow your point here.

If kuribo is town and Thestatusquo is town, then the reasonable explanation is that Thestatusquo was targeted by the caterer and by the visionary.

If kuribo is town and Thestatusquo is scum, then the most likely explanation would be that one of Thestatusquo's teammates randed the caterer, and Thestatusquo somehow determined that he was specifically the one targeted by kuribo. I wouldn't say this has a 0% chance of happening, but the visionary actions lends Thestatusquo a lot of credit here that I won't realistically be entertaining this possibility for this day phase.

If kuribo is scum, then I must be scum by extension because of our lovers claim. And as already pointed out, kuribo randed both sides of the lover pair, so that rules out a persistent mafia lover with only one rotating lover role.

[Ircher]

Ircher did you get the same lover during D1 and D3?

No.

[Ircher]

Ircher and Shea what did you have on D2?

Vanilla Background Character

[Ircher]

Why are you so fixated on the lover part
It’s not like lover role isn’t the only role Kuribo rolled that was confirmed by others.

Because it's super unlikely for such a role pairing to have played out the way it has. And because once the game dragged on long enough that people would naturally be getting super suspicious, along comes a "vision" claim.

I'm also pretty sure that there have been no other "named" roles claimed this game. I've only seen one "scripted" part, and it didn't have a proper name. As far as I'm aware, nobody besides Ircher and Kuribo have claimed to be given a role with a "proper" name.

ALL OF THE FUCKING ROLES HAVE NAMES

"Sassy Cab Driver" is not a proper name in the way that "Romeo" or "Juliet" are names.

Literally nobody but you has claimed their scripted role had a proper name.

Rage more. It's feeding me.

This is such a bad argument.

[Ircher]

Corrupt Judge; Sassy Cab Driver

Are not the same as "Romeo" and "Juliet"

Can you spot the difference? One has adjectives and nouns. The other features only a single proper noun.

[Ircher]

I hate it when people become IC or conftown, and then they just want to coast on that and don't want to actually put in the effort of analyzing the game to bring home a win. Right now I get the distinct impression that the "conftown" bunch are just idling this day phase and will happily rope me whenever they get around to it. No actual review of the slots in PoE is happening that I can see coming from them.

Well, you aren't making us want to reevaluate you when you keep trying to claim our role is fake because it's a proper noun...

[Ircher]

first I need to say that putting PB out of poe mechanically is just wrong assumption cause pb claimed an action post other actions were claimed, nothing actually was said about him, himself. I mean shea is town if pb is town but the vice versa is not necessarily true mechanically. scum could just have tracker as a fake claim and he could have just made the FB checked shea up after it was claimed in thread.

but going back to the gun in my hand, few pages ago I would say drixx, cause of how low impact he became after getting titus elimed. I was not completely alerted with how he approached titus but I think him being less impactful in direction of game is a scum indicative thing of him. But then I actually like his way of approaching lovers claim actually. I think its fair of him to be suspicious of lovers cause its really low probability for no one else to ever have lover in this setup and drixx that I know "drives" with the math and probabilities when he is solving. so I'm actually a bit reserved on the slot now.

Regarding STD his claiming vig existance is particularly something that a scum him would have almost no reason of doing in my head. but then I kept thinking, why would a catalyst vig not try to use that role for confirming himself somehow. like I would expect him trying to hunt an action and why would he assume going on ircher will be likely end up killing a slot to begin with.

That leaves GIF and Dun and I think there is a scum between the two. If both are town we have a 3 scum setup likely.

I also think there is for sure a scum in the commuter claimers that is drixx/gif/dun

who i would shoot will have to wait till I deeper check when I have time thursday night or Friday morning. I don't have time to elaborate more my current reads and check things up but I wanna see how each of the people drove the game regarding each wagon.

You missed the Pink Ball interaction with Black Day 2 in your analysis. That isn't 100% clearing either, but again, it grants more weight to Pink Ball being town.

[Ircher]

What do you think I could have targeted ircher with and why ircher

I still think there's a good chance mafia have at least some control over the way the amnesia roles are distributed.

[Ircher]

PB is the "paranoia" slot. Does everyone understand how to handle such a slot? Do I need to explain, or is that settled theory at this point?

You'll have to explain.

[Ircher]

I still think dunn feels kinda townie tbh. If he's scum he's really good at replicating his town game.

I think I feel most confident in limming std, then drixx if you put a gun to my head.

I'm at a similar place though I'd probably kill Drixx first. My teammates also think Dunnstral is the most town (though they haven't read much yet).

[Ircher]

i don't think you tried to sort me at all

show me something that's not "but scum you would do this"

Fas turn on me doesn't feel believable.

PBS been openly wolfy all day

And the most opportunistic vote goes to...

What happened with PB and Ircher?

What happened with GiF?

You still don't seem to get that PB could have tracked FB to a scum shea. It's possible. Likely? I dunno. Bur until you realize the mechanics is different from what you are preaching stop clearing people

Do you understand how the caterer works?

But I did find something interesting:

GiF is right, there are 16 roles instead of 15: all the PRs that we already know and 6 VTs. D1 is missing the Vig, the Tracker and the Gravedigger
Gravedigger and Tracker are real: Shea got the gravedigger yesterday and I got the tracker on D3.
Only role that has no confirmation is the vig, which conveniently is on a player who's alive today, but given the 16 roles instead of 15, it could be that one of the VTs is fake and it was actually a scum who fakeclaimed and randed the vig.

Another theory that we talked with Jingle back on D2: there could be 16 roles; that way the lovers get nerfed and make the game a little less townsided. Given how things went the rest of the days, this theory gets more credit now.

But what really caught my attention was this:
Drixx: Commuter, VT, VT
GiF: VT, Commuter, VT
Dunn: VT, VT, Commuter

Commuter is actually a great role for scum in this setup: it gives enough WIFOM about the comfirmable amnesiac roles to the point that some night actions could be disregarded via Commuter claim (Caterer targeted you and you didn't get the role? "Oh I was a commuter"; Visionary and someone else targeted you and you didn't claim receiving a vision? "Oh I commuted last night"; etc). The thing is, Titus started this discussion when Drixx claimed the Commuter, saying that he should've claimed it on D1, and GiF shut down that conversation by claiming the Commuter himself.

So what to do with this connection, knowing that the most likely scenario is that there are four scum members inside {StD,FA,GiF,Drixx,Dunn}?
- The three claimed commuters are scum and 1 scum in {StD,FA}. Why would GiF be going after Dunn in this scenario? While I think the scumteam's strategy is not bussing unless absolutely necessary (because one more night means more chances of town getting conftowned), if StD is the remaining partner it's completely valid to throw Dunn under the bus just to control the rethoric of the game for future days; GiF and co would know that there will be another day to play so making a GiF/Dunn 1v1 makes the other look good the next day. I think the real objective of this scumteam is missliming FA, which GiF started this day saying that was a possibility too.
- Two of three claimed commuters are scum. This one is based on two things: I still townread GiF by play; and the VC at EoD2. I think either GiF or Dunn where caught in the crossfire pushing Titus instead of Klick and I'm inclined to believe that GiF was the one caught there. BUT there's the connection between Drixx and GiF: even if the commuter was a real amnesiac role (confirmed by town!Dunn in this scenario), the way it was claimed on D2 and how GiF followed is concerning. I think that Dunn not claiming it on D3 is actually pro town. The remaining scum would be StD and FA.

And that's it, there are no other scenarios because of the PoE I have. Scenario 1 could discard the idea of voting between {StD,FA} even if everything points out to StD being scum. Scenario 2 discards the idea of voting between {GiF,Dunn}.

Drixx is the only confscum in both scenarios.

I guess I strongly think pb, kuribo, ircher are town

I guess I strongly think pb, kuribo, ircher are town

Why PB but not Black?

Because it's not mech based

the lovers claim certainly sounds like garbage in every way

is it true? i dunno. maybe killing ircher will tell us, scum aren't going to kill them unless they kick it up a notch

This you?

im not interested in kuribo or ircher today

I guess I strongly think pb, kuribo, ircher are town

you got me, no time has passed and many people have claimed the lovers role, not just the two that have had it, so there's no reason for my opinion to change

But you said your townreads on ircher and kuribo weren't mech related. 5442 implies that your initial read was based on mech then?

i said my read on you wasn't mech related

Ohhh I thought you meant the three of us

Why did you think I was aligned with Dragons?

StD and you being scum were different thoughts at the time and StD stated his paranoia towards Shea/Ircher/kuribo so if I was right I was expecting for him to push either Shea or kuribo first but then he said he would vote you so the association fell off

JFC there's a world where kuribo, ircher, and shea are all scum we need to at least pretend to explore it

And if this was true who would you vote first?

ircher

Ah fuck, good answer

JFC there's a world where kuribo, ircher, and shea are all scum we need to at least pretend to explore it

Feeling a little cornered?

Nooooo let him answer my question first I'm cooking something

Vote Count

Titus

- 7 (Drixx, Klick, Dunnstral, GuyInFreezer, Thestatusquo,

Pink Ball, Ircher

)

Klick - 4

(

Titus, Black

, Save The Dragons,

Firebringer

)

Not Voting - 2

(Frozen Angel,

Kuribo

)

With 13 Alive, It Takes 7 to Eliminate

Activity Check:

Day Ends Post #4610

Deadline: (expired on 2023-05-05 21:00:00)

If both Titus and Klick were town, this final Votecount would look different.

If Klick is town:
- Imagine a world were StD is town: is it possible that all of the scumteam was voting Titus (or three of them and FA not voting) and all town voting Klick? That would mean the scumteam is 4 out of {Drixx, Dunnstral, GiF, TSQ, FA}.
- Imagine a world were StD is scum: this is more likely, since we would be looking at 3 out of {Drixx, Dunnstral, GiF, TSQ, FA}, and if we assume FA is scum, only two would be voting Titus.

If Klick is scum:
- If StD is town, 3 out of {Drixx, Dunnstral, GiF, TSQ, FA}, same scenario than the one before this.
- If StD is scum, 2 out of {Drixx, Dunnstral, GiF, TSQ, FA}, could be two scums voted Titus and 5 townies led the Titus wagon.

I don't think that both of the main wagons were lead by town. At first I thought that because Titus claimed JK, it became the scumteam main priority to lim her. Given that kuribo was practically on Klick's wagon and Ircher could've voted any of them, that means at least 5 town players were virtually onto Klick. Did the entire scumteam voted as a block to avoid Klick's elimination and the scumteam is just {Drixx, Dunn, GiF, Shea}? No, of course not. Even If FA was scum and one of them wasn't it makes no sense to take that amount of effort just to get the JK out for one night, especially if they were planning of killing Black, who wasn't going to be JKed in the first place (given Black's role).

Now, the town perspective here is "yeah the scumteam preferred to kill Titus over Klick because of the JK claim", but what's the scum perspective about the mechanics of this game? Sure, if they are both town, better kill the player who could get conftowned via protecting the designated nightkill or roleblocking the player making it, and tomorrow push Klick again as an easy mislim. But that's the thing, you can't do that with this mechanics, because Klick could get conftowned if he got a lover role and got access to the lover PT. He could get conftowned too if Black targets him. He could get conftowned with whatever role he had on D2!

So what makes more sense: the scumteam decided to dissuade Klick's wagon in order to get the JK not available for one night but giving Klick the opportunity of getting conftowned, or that Klick is scum and that the scumteam had to put some effort to avoid his elimination?

[Ircher]

5862 is bullshit
i don't know why you quoted 5597
5516 isn't really about me at all
5448 and 5451 aren't sorting?!?
5359 has me as scum already?
5242 is weird but maybe valid
5237 doesn't prove anything
4768 was yesterday????

ircher if you are town you have really blown it

Sure, 4768 was yesterday, but you didn't say the post had to be today.
I didn't quote 5862. I quoted 5826. You may not be happy with the conclusion, but Pink Ball was at least attempting to understand what happened. Pink Ball saw an inconsistency and asked you why. That's sorting.
5516 shows Pink Ball isn't just tunneling you. It shows he is looking beyond just you.
5448 and 5451 are again evidence that Pink Ball is trying to understand your mindset. Pink Ball could have just assumed the worst, but instead, he reached out for clarification.

[Ircher]

cephrir wants to know why this is the only thing you've cared about all game, ircher

It's not. Just because I don't have 400+ posts doesn't mean I'm not paying attention.

[Ircher]

what do you think happens if scum get a mislim on me today

The game ends.

[Ircher]

Yes.

[Ircher]

For clarity, my reads are:

Ircher, kuribo
Pink Ball
Thestatusquo
---
GuyInFreezer, Dunnstral
---
Frozen Angel
Save the Dragons
Drixx

[Ircher]

One might think "I completely trust stds claims" includes the target and my alignment especially since it wasn't really questioned by you until I was taking heat

well one might think wrong

I stated absolutely nothing saying I think you're town. I just stated my opinion about your claims and then later on when I felt something is off regarding what you saying about why you claimed ircher who you were supposedly scumreading, I started questioning it and I hated your response to those questions

so here we are

What was the purpose then of stating that you trusted the claims completely?

[Ircher]

One might think "I completely trust stds claims" includes the target and my alignment especially since it wasn't really questioned by you until I was taking heat

well one might think wrong

I stated absolutely nothing saying I think you're town. I just stated my opinion about your claims and then later on when I felt something is off regarding what you saying about why you claimed ircher who you were supposedly scumreading, I started questioning it and I hated your response to those questions

so here we are

What was the purpose then of stating that you trusted the claims completely?

cause he claimed two roles no one else ever claimed so far in game

I'm not sure I follow this response, but I think your previous post answered my question (though it contradicts what you said ~10 minutes ago).

[Ircher]

My ISO is chock full of me being town. Anyone who says differently is either scum or bad. I've been pushing for town play all game, and have consistently pushed people to think about and analyze and come to their own conclusions. I've shared my thoughts, but I haven't rammed them down anyone's throat, and I've been practically begging the so called "conftown" block to actually do something with their status.

Okay, quote some posts that show you are town.

[Ircher]

You haven't done anything except make rage posts Kuribo. That's clearly not getting it done.

I invite you to go look at the amount of analyzing Cerb and I did in "Steven Universe" when we were IC. Give Cerb 90% of the credit, and I still worked circles around the effort on display here (and it wasn't a 90/10 situation, but I'm trying to make a point).

You can rage at me all you like. You can even vote me. Doesn't change the fact that all you're doing is raging, and the folks who share in your status are also just doing nothing useful.

I'll literally eat my shorts if town can manage a single scum lim at this point, let alone find a path to victory.

Why is this your focus? Why aren't you acting as you preach?

[Ircher]

I need to do a chart with all the claims give me a sec

But I did find something interesting:

GiF is right, there are 16 roles instead of 15: all the PRs that we already know and 6 VTs. D1 is missing the Vig, the Tracker and the Gravedigger
Gravedigger and Tracker are real: Shea got the gravedigger yesterday and I got the tracker on D3.
Only role that has no confirmation is the vig, which conveniently is on a player who's alive today, but given the 16 roles instead of 15, it could be that one of the VTs is fake and it was actually a scum who fakeclaimed and randed the vig.

Another theory that we talked with Jingle back on D2: there could be 16 roles; that way the lovers get nerfed and make the game a little less townsided. Given how things went the rest of the days, this theory gets more credit now.

But what really caught my attention was this:
Drixx: Commuter, VT, VT
GiF: VT, Commuter, VT
Dunn: VT, VT, Commuter

Commuter is actually a great role for scum in this setup: it gives enough WIFOM about the comfirmable amnesiac roles to the point that some night actions could be disregarded via Commuter claim (Caterer targeted you and you didn't get the role? "Oh I was a commuter"; Visionary and someone else targeted you and you didn't claim receiving a vision? "Oh I commuted last night"; etc). The thing is, Titus started this discussion when Drixx claimed the Commuter, saying that he should've claimed it on D1, and GiF shut down that conversation by claiming the Commuter himself.

So what to do with this connection, knowing that the most likely scenario is that there are four scum members inside {StD,FA,GiF,Drixx,Dunn}?
- The three claimed commuters are scum and 1 scum in {StD,FA}. Why would GiF be going after Dunn in this scenario? While I think the scumteam's strategy is not bussing unless absolutely necessary (because one more night means more chances of town getting conftowned), if StD is the remaining partner it's completely valid to throw Dunn under the bus just to control the rethoric of the game for future days; GiF and co would know that there will be another day to play so making a GiF/Dunn 1v1 makes the other look good the next day. I think the real objective of this scumteam is missliming FA, which GiF started this day saying that was a possibility too.
- Two of three claimed commuters are scum. This one is based on two things: I still townread GiF by play; and the VC at EoD2. I think either GiF or Dunn where caught in the crossfire pushing Titus instead of Klick and I'm inclined to believe that GiF was the one caught there. BUT there's the connection between Drixx and GiF: even if the commuter was a real amnesiac role (confirmed by town!Dunn in this scenario), the way it was claimed on D2 and how GiF followed is concerning. I think that Dunn not claiming it on D3 is actually pro town. The remaining scum would be StD and FA.

And that's it, there are no other scenarios because of the PoE I have. Scenario 1 could discard the idea of voting between {StD,FA} even if everything points out to StD being scum. Scenario 2 discards the idea of voting between {GiF,Dunn}.

Drixx is the only confscum in both scenarios.

VOTE: Drixx

UNVOTE: Drixx

Just to avoid ending the day quickly in case someone has something else to say

Ok dude I know you need to keep the PoE wide

Do you disagree with what I said about Drixx?

I don't get this; who are you saying is mafia here besides Save the Dragons and Frozen Angel?

{Drixx,Dunn} or {Drixx,GiF}. By play I'm inclined on the former, by associations on the latter, so inconclusive

Strategically, voting Drixx is still the right choice

I need more time please don't end day quickly

I'm actually pretty much ready to end it

What are you planning

I already did @Drixx

That leaves GIF and Dun and I think there is a scum between the two. If both are town we have a 3 scum setup likely.

Drixx, STD and FA?

Oh and for a "who would you murk first" tally:

GiF/Drixx- Dunnstral
STD / Dunnstral - GiF
Frozen Angel-

First points out to my theory that GiF/Drixx are paired and Dunn got into wrong place wrong time
Second points out that GiF got into wrong place wrong time
Third points out to nothing

We are not voting either GiF or Dunn today

What I really care about is why not vote GiF today

Because I think one of you is the remaining town in the PoE and we are not forced to solve that 1v1 now if we can go more nights that could give us more info or even one of you randing a lover

why you eliminated the possibility of both being scum to get this conclusion?

I haven't eliminated it. It's in the context of what kuribo did.

I posted a while ago why Drixx is the best lim today strat wise.

Some thoughts about yesterday and the exercise:

I actually like how STD reacted to pressure yesterday. I had some thoughts about him before the day started and I wanted to see how he would defend himself, what "townie traits" he thought he had to see if it was part of a scheme or if they were genuine traits. There's one thing that I was waiting to come from scum!StD as a solid defense that never came through: his read on FB. StD didn't question FB getting the caterer on D3 and he stopped pushing that slot before D2 ended. If STD was scum trying to widen the PoE, why wait until D4 to do it? It's not like he hasn't had thread presence, he's been engaged the entire game, so "going under the radar" is not a correct assestment about his play. Scum being worried about the slim PoE would've started acting as paranoid town before the game came to this point.

In contrast with StD's paranoia during this day, we have Drixx who was paranoid about the lovers' claim when it was claimed, paranoid about the caterer when it was claimed and kept his paranoia until this day. He is now inclined to believe the idea of being part of a non confirmed town PoE and that the scumteam would be {StD,GiF,Dunn,FA}, but keeping the "paranoia slot" rethoric alive. That to me looks way more "planning ahead in case me and my partners start getting limmed" than StD's survivalism during this day. Scum!STD has a lot of reasons to fight how he has fought today to avoid getting limmed (mainly to mess up associations and because yeah of course scum is closer to win today than tomorrow because of the game's mechanics), but town!STD has more reasons to fight because if he gets limmed he loses, period. On the other hand, we have Drixx, who came to the thread when he became the main focus of attention for a short period, said "if you lim me today you're gonna regret it" and then disappeared when STD became the main focus again.

Yesterday I started the day like StD->Drixx--->FA->Dunn--->GiF and now I'm more like Drixx----->StD/FA/Dunn->GiF.

Back to this:

- The three claimed commuters are scum and 1 scum in {StD,FA}. Why would GiF be going after Dunn in this scenario? While I think the scumteam's strategy is not bussing unless absolutely necessary (because one more night means more chances of town getting conftowned), if StD is the remaining partner it's completely valid to throw Dunn under the bus just to control the rethoric of the game for future days; GiF and co would know that there will be another day to play so making a GiF/Dunn 1v1 makes the other look good the next day. I think the real objective of this scumteam is missliming FA, which GiF started this day saying that was a possibility too.
- Two of three claimed commuters are scum. This one is based on two things: I still townread GiF by play; and the VC at EoD2. I think either GiF or Dunn where caught in the crossfire pushing Titus instead of Klick and I'm inclined to believe that GiF was the one caught there. BUT there's the connection between Drixx and GiF: even if the commuter was a real amnesiac role (confirmed by town!Dunn in this scenario), the way it was claimed on D2 and how GiF followed is concerning. I think that Dunn not claiming it on D3 is actually pro town. The remaining scum would be StD and FA.

And that's it, there are no other scenarios because of the PoE I have. Scenario 1 could discard the idea of voting between {StD,FA} even if everything points out to StD being scum. Scenario 2 discards the idea of voting between {GiF,Dunn}.

Even if GiF is still looking the towniest of the bunch, StD towning it up makes me come back to the commuters' association. That means that there would be only one scum in {StD,FA}.

So my first strat still stands: lim Drixx, get one more night of night actions that give us more time to get one of the players inside the PoE to get conftowned via amnesiac roles and keep goind down the rabbit hole until we find the carrot.

Yep ... you totally haven't voted me today or consistently been pushing to rope me all day. Totally misrepresenting you here.

That... Wasn't Pink Ball's argument. Pink Ball argued that you haven't been his /sole/ focus of the day.

[Ircher]

I don't have to worry about associative posting. I don't know who my teammates are.

Then you can take stances on people in the PoE and stop focusing on your paranoia.

[Ircher]

Can you give me an example of a game where you were voted by someone in a 1v1 as town and not voted them back?

I'd rather have Drixx focus on their ISO dives than answering this.

[Ircher]

PB you are wrong. The only question is whether you are "genuinely" wrong or not.

I said on day 2 when the claim happened that there would be an appropriate time to act upon it if nobody else ever confirmed them. Today is the time but we conveniently have another claim coming in that has a "domino" clearing effect. If you can't see how that would be strong as a scum gambit ... dunno what to say. Like ... there's a non trivial possibility space that the game is literally just the four "cleared" are scum and the rest of us are just fighting with each other while you all laugh about it. I've seen much crazier stuff in this game over the years.

But your assertion that I didn't seriously consider it is just wrong. It's provably wrong just by reading what I said about it in day 2. If there wasn't a claim by TSQ that "clears" Kuribo, today would have been the appropriate time to rope Ircher, which is what I not so subtly hinted at on day 2.

I need to read all the posts that showed up in p-edit, and I also have about 2.25 hours of work left, and then however long it takes me to finish with what I've been working on.

No. Prioritize your ISO dive. Stop wasting time engaging arguments that merely clutter the thread.

[Ircher]

there's a non trivial possibility space that the game is literally just the four "cleared" are scum and the rest of us are just fighting with each other while you all laugh about it.

No there isn't

Because I'm voting you and the game isn't over, and they've all posted

!!!

To be fair, coordinating a four player quickhammer can be tough. I wouldn't discount the possibility entirely based solely on the fact there hasn't been one yet.

[Ircher]

Today is the day we all prod dodge.

[Ircher]

VCA isn't very useful without a red flip.

[Ircher]

I agree, we do know something that it's compelling: Klick and Titus's wagon progression on D2

The interesting thing is how the momentum flipped when Thestatusquo swapped votes.

[Ircher]

I'm not scum, so adjust your reasoning appropriately. If you want to bet the game has only 3 scum, you can feel free to rope me to prove that. I personally have already said I think we're in a 4 scum world, which is the only reason I've even bothered to fight it.

What kind of response is this? "I'm not scum, so adjust your reasoning appropriately." Uh no, that's not how it works. You should show us you aren't scum rather than merely assert it.

[Ircher]

I can't like...interpret your picture well enough to know if I agree with your conclusions.

would it help if i photoshopped a red circle around the stuffed cat

Doubling the size of the picture would make it s lot easier to read.

[Ircher]

I've been reading through the Day 1 posts I missed. I think Frozen Angel looks worse overall based on those posts. Drixx is also lacking in good early posts; Post 812 for instance says very little of substance.

[Ircher]

RECRUIT HER YOU FUCK

And allow people I work with to see my sixteen year body of work in which I repeatedly called other human beings "inbred pigfuckers?"

Just don't tell them your username, and they'll be none the wiser.

[Ircher]

*prodge*

Nothing worth discussing happened in the last 24 hours.

[Ircher]

I'm giving Drixx until tonight before I vote.

[Ircher]

roughly ordered

Black <
Titus <
Pink Ball
Klick <
Thestatusquo <<
Dunnstral
Frozen Angel <<<
Firebringer <
Kuribo <<
GuyInFreezer
DragonEater70 <
Feysal <
BlueSnakelet <
Drixx

again this has uniform distribution like before on different tiers. again ircher is missing.

I find it a bit weird that you say I'm missing on this list. Like, the game started with 15 players, and there are 14 players on the list (plus Save the Dragons to make 15). Like I can understand you forgetting that I replaced BlueSnakelet, but the way you're approaching this makes me think you are trying to clutch for reasons to make your case.

[Ircher]

I'm not informed, so here's your reminder that if you think you see something associative in my posts, you are incorrect.

I actually called out of work today, which I nearly never do. But that's how it's going.

The general vibe of the pages I just read was "We're gonna rope Drixx regardless". That seem a fair assessment?

If you're town and the game continues, your thoughts would still have value. Thestatusquo is right in that we have effectively waited about a week for you to produce something only to be met with perpetual unkept promises.

[Ircher]

If solving this game was a priority for you, then you would give us more to work with by now than "I am town; therefore, these four players are scum by PoE."

[Ircher]

Like, that's a fair stance to take, but it can't be the /only/ stance you're contributing.

[Ircher]

If solving this game was a priority for you, then you would give us more to work with by now than "I am town; therefore, these four players are scum by PoE."

Bro ... my ISO has me doing stuff to try and help town all game. Your ISO has you doing nothing at all, ever.

I'll sleep okay if you're the one trying to lecture me about doing my part.

I'm not lecturing. I'm explaining why I think the behavior is scum indicative. I also acknowledge that I don't provide earth-shattering takes, but that's also just not how I operate.

[Ircher]

I'll be back in about an hour or two. I'll be voting then unless a miracle occurs.

[Ircher]

A miracle didn't occur.
VOTE: Drixx

[Ircher]

I do think Drixx was /mostly/ right about others in the PoE of using Drixx's attention to avoid doing much.

[Ircher]

We should get people in the PoE to cast the remaining votes.

[Ircher]

Associatives. See which ones are willing to bus/not willing.

[Ircher]

We should get people in the PoE to cast the remaining votes.

I think that saying it beats the purpose though, and in a world were we are 5v4, coordinating every town member to cast a vote on the same wagon is hard, imagine waiting for the scumteam to colaborate in that situation lol

Well no, there's still the WIFOM game to be played, but maybe it makes more sense to just leave the hammer open.

[Ircher]

We also don't have to cut it super close. 24 hours before deadline should be enough time for scum to decide to hammer or not hammer.

[Ircher]

Save the Dragons had enough time to vote anyway.

[Ircher]

So we just didn't get data on what Frozen Angel would've done.

[Ircher]

PB is the game over

Am I FREE to play Zelda tomorrow????

Tomorrow is night phase, so of course you're free to pay this game no attention.

[Ircher]

You said Save the Dragons would be the town if another existed, right? Maybe I just fidn't read, but did you explain why Drixx?

[Ircher]

I wouldn't trust anything GIF says here in Twilight. They'd probably troll us for fun.

[Ircher]

Great game everyone! Thanks for modding T-Bone.

[Ircher]

I was not expecting both Pink Ball and Thestatusquo to be scum, so I thought it was fine for us to lim in the PoE despite Aisa telling me how much they were scum reading Thestatusquo.