Open 573: C9++

[davesaz]

VOTE: Death Stare

Because if you can kill with a stare...

[davesaz]

weird, the someone posted thingy didn't pop up

[davesaz]

<consults player list>

2 hydrae and a single. I'd like to join this group and make it a balanced quartet.

[davesaz]

That's assuming heartless has a change of heart. More or less.

[davesaz]

That moving avatar is getting on my nerves. Keeps drawing my attention away from the posts.
Of course there isn't much in the posts to be drawn away from, other than perhaps the thought of the posts being empty-ish itself.
Nero's behavior

could

be brash scum, but I don't have player history to gauge it against.

I read wgeurts comments on setup as null.

Edit: Reasoning can be a two edged sword for town. If you explain too much, scum can figure out how you're reading them and adjust accordingly. If you explain too little, other town might see you as scummy. Though it's potentially beneficial to err on the side of too little, as scum are also likely to jump on it.

[davesaz]

I can see why Anti thinks davesaz is scum. Post 152 is very underwhelming and halfhearted, especially seeing that it distinctly lacks

follow through

. There's no questions about Nero Cain's play style directed at people who know him and there's no accompanying vote on Nero Cain to back up the accusations of empty "-ish" posting. The sentence on wgeurts being null is as uninformative as the rest of the post and the scope of reads (only 2 players) is extremely narrow.

That's my "making a drive-by post on the way to work and see what happens" post style.

This is my "making a drive-by post while a show is on commercial to see if anything else happens" post.

After my shows are over for the night, I'll come back to see if the net has caught anything.

[davesaz]

Wow la, I've just woken up and there so many posts here with so little content... as if the player list consisted of Aneninen. ^_^

I specially liked the part where certain players are willing to quicklynch someone because the Deadline is bugged. I'd suggest reading post 1, box 2, point 8, words 4 to 7.

Oh, you want content. Well, as for 78 from Wgeurts. I think he simply hasn't read the setup which is a null... in itself. Let's see what happens next. (By the way, your name sounds funny if you try to pronounce it in Dutch lololol!)

And now, the weather forecast. Hi there, Sthar8, Antihero and Mollie!

yeah, still want that dead.

scum hunting is really hard these days, you have a ton of players that are intentionally anti-town and then the rest of the players are irrational as fuck so determining if they are bad town or scum is a crap shoot. Can't you at least give me a hint? Is it Mollie and foxxxx?

Why do you think my play could be brash scum dav?

Short and kinda joking (to me) posting style, making assertions but without much logic, not coming back to follow up on the comments. These are the type of posts which can be laughed off as not being really serious. In my experience, posting like this can be an indicator of scum being talkative to look active but not wanting to take a really big stand on anything that they can't back out of. It's not a very strong indicator, but it identifies you as someone to watch. Also a quick perusal of your iso shows that the majority of your posts lack a quote for context, thereby making them a bit more difficult for others to use with proper context. This leaves opportunities for using misrep claims as a defense.

[davesaz]

As of right now, I'd be happy to lynch monkey or nero, especially since neither has been able to articulate what makes wogglydeegort scummy.


Monkey much more than Nero, since Nero actually has had a process, easy to fake though it is.

I found it interesting that Monkey unvoted under pressure, but apparently not on a change of heart with regard to wgeurts.

Nero paid a lot of attention to the discussion regarding wgeurts, but still keeps DS as a scum read and has not moved his vote.

I think it was instructive to see who was concerned about a quick lynch of DS, even though at L-3 with days to go it never seemed to be a serious possibility. My vote and at least one other on that "wagon" are leftovers from RVS. I left mine there in part just to see what might develop if someone read the numbers without looking real deep into the support for a lynch or lack thereof. Since it doesn't seem to be generating any useful discussion, no point in keeping it there.

UNVOTE:

I have seen massive in another game, though he was NK'd before I replaced in so none of the interaction was in real time. I'd like to see more of him in this game.

wgeurts wants to no lynch.
wgeurts doesn't like random bandwagons.
wgeurts wants to hold onto his vote.

I don't know that mafia is the game for wgeurts.

This is town too.

I am getting a good town block.

Heartless, Nero Cain, Massive and Me.

I think I just broke the game.

Scum:

wreurts, Death Stare

I fail to see how MonkeyMan can get a town read on Massive from just one real post. It's a little too convenient to use it in a "town block" like this, like he's reaching for someone non-controversial to add to the list. The other members of the "block" seem to have only their suspicion of wgeurts in common. I don't identify town that way, too much chance to confbias yourself into ignoring scummy behavior that conflicts with block membership.

In fact, having thought about it long enough to write and edit this post, I think someone has some 'splaining to do.

VOTE: MonkeyMan

[davesaz]

Another thing I've noticed. MTD voted Aneninen for fluff...

Spoiler: longish post

Simply not understanding the setup is null.

I wrote the same thing. And C9++ is not an easily-comprehend-able-ish setup, after all.

But

he said he isn't new to mafia...
I agree however that this is no tell.

I am not sure about him currently, he sure hasn't acted mega-towny, though.

Wanting to NL is normal for people coming from other sites.
Btw
@wguerts: You say we shouldn't lynch someone yet, and attack people for voting because you want to put pressure on people first. Just fyi, the most prominent way of pressuring people happens to be votes. And no, lynches don't happen because of 2 or 3 votes.

in general: It is quite obvious noone currently wants to quick-lynch anyone, so quit whining about it pls.

Aneninen's looks somewhat scummy to me. His posts are nearly all fluff, the only things he has really said about other people is

Wgeurts' play is indeed a bit strange, especially because he said that he wasn't new to Online Mafia though, I think he simply didn't undertstand the setup.

Basically saying that there is nothing interesting there and

MonkeyMan is changing his vote all the time.

Which is damn obvious.
In general I have the impression he is trying to make a good impression without risking anything. I don't like that.

VOTE: Aneninen

Death Stare is prob town, dunno about the other hydrae.
I don't really like GrayFox so far, but there's little to go on there.

Also I just realized that massive is

old

.

But then goes to post a bunch of

Spoiler: fluff

He meant my Mafiascum age.

exactly.

No idea why you assumed I knew his real age.
Or why you do.

@MTD: his real age is on his page.

uhm.... is it?

Well, there actually is the possibility to change votes, you know....

Just explain yourself itsn't that hard if you're town.

really, this isn't that hard.
Hint: there is a difference between reasons for voting someone in particular and reasons for placing a vote (regardless of the one you vote for).

This is nowhere near as important so my vote stays where it is, but keeping MTD in mind for later.

[davesaz]

[quote="In post 180

This post is what I need you to focus on.

Noted for future reference. I won't spoil your interaction by interjecting my thoughts just yet.

[davesaz]

I would like to echo the request to use hydra names and not the heads. And not use nicknames which have no relation to nick. And please refer to the same player the same way within your posts.
For example, who is nachomollie, that name does not appear on the player list that I can remember.

[davesaz]

Another thing I've noticed. MTD voted Aneninen for fluff...

Spoiler: longish post

Simply not understanding the setup is null.

I wrote the same thing. And C9++ is not an easily-comprehend-able-ish setup, after all.

But

he said he isn't new to mafia...
I agree however that this is no tell.

I am not sure about him currently, he sure hasn't acted mega-towny, though.

Wanting to NL is normal for people coming from other sites.
Btw
@wguerts: You say we shouldn't lynch someone yet, and attack people for voting because you want to put pressure on people first. Just fyi, the most prominent way of pressuring people happens to be votes. And no, lynches don't happen because of 2 or 3 votes.

in general: It is quite obvious noone currently wants to quick-lynch anyone, so quit whining about it pls.

Aneninen's looks somewhat scummy to me. His posts are nearly all fluff, the only things he has really said about other people is

Wgeurts' play is indeed a bit strange, especially because he said that he wasn't new to Online Mafia though, I think he simply didn't undertstand the setup.

Basically saying that there is nothing interesting there and

MonkeyMan is changing his vote all the time.

Which is damn obvious.
In general I have the impression he is trying to make a good impression without risking anything. I don't like that.

VOTE: Aneninen

Death Stare is prob town, dunno about the other hydrae.
I don't really like GrayFox so far, but there's little to go on there.

Also I just realized that massive is

old

.

But then goes to post a bunch of

Spoiler: fluff

He meant my Mafiascum age.

exactly.

No idea why you assumed I knew his real age.
Or why you do.

@MTD: his real age is on his page.

uhm.... is it?

Well, there actually is the possibility to change votes, you know....

Just explain yourself itsn't that hard if you're town.

really, this isn't that hard.
Hint: there is a difference between reasons for voting someone in particular and reasons for placing a vote (regardless of the one you vote for).

This is nowhere near as important so my vote stays where it is, but keeping MTD in mind for later.

How are the latter two quotes from MTD fluff?

Incorrect terminology and/or wrong posts quoted, my bad.

The point still being that MTD's content is less than stellar.

[davesaz]

Scum:

wreurts, Death Stare

this post in very lacking in dave and sthar scum reads.

Short and kinda joking (to me) posting style, making assertions but without much logic, not coming back to follow up on the comments. These are the type of posts which can be laughed off as not being really serious. In my experience, posting like this can be an indicator of scum being talkative to look active but not wanting to take a really big stand on anything that they can't back out of. It's not a very strong indicator, but it identifies you as someone to watch. Also a quick perusal of your iso shows that the majority of your posts lack a quote for context, thereby making them a bit more difficult for others to use with proper context. This leaves opportunities for using misrep claims as a defense.

This post feels very much like cherry picking. I think I've taken hard stances and I think its pretty hypocritical for you to say that I'm not taking hard stances while you aren't voting me.

As I said, it's not a very strong indicator. You don't do it all the time, just some of the time. This post I'm quoting right now for example is a lot more concrete than many of your earlier posts. If my weak scum read were true, you might react to it by adjusting your approach to the game, so the fact you're improving doesn't completely clear you in my mind. There are other things to go on which I won't spell out at this time.

[davesaz]

why do you think that Davesaz is scum?

I was mainly agreeing with anti-heart but his accusation that I was fluffy or didn't have any content or whatever is absolutely ridiculous.

There are accusations, votes, and combinations of the two. Accusations may be baseless, weak, or very strong. All of these are scum hunting methods designed to generate responses which may strengthen or weaken reads.

Whether people read my posting correctly, and how hard they try to push an incorrect read, are indicators too. The same applies to their reactions and approaches to other players.

[davesaz]

@GrayFoxxx

That posting style of imbedded replies makes it difficult for others to use the post. Not trying to bang on you, just making a public service type post, FWIW.

p-edit

Damn, I know it didn't take long to type one sentence. But activity is good.

[davesaz]

OK
HARD RESET

tth:

vote from [greyfox, monkeyman]
mtd would also be a pretty acceptable vote
great things will follow

probtown are 50shades,sthar8,deathstare,nerocain,wgeurrajjsrkel;jfthefuckisthisname?

On grayfox, I'm not very convinced. Sure the whole interaction with sthar8 had me reaching for a bucket (and reaching for the monitor's power switch when my kids came in the home office), but that type of thing doesn't tend to be scum in my experience. Was there something else other than the slapfest that bothered you about him? I thought the question, though badly handled, was kinda reasonable. Maybe just because foxxxxxxx was going after someone in your town pile?

I'm happy to not be in the scummy pile, but don't know what I'm doing (or not doing) to fail to reach the town pile.

[davesaz]

Unvote

OH MAN I GUESS WE WON'T VOTE MTD BECAUSE HE'S SO FUCKING TOWN
I'M SURE ALL OF THOSE BEAUTIFUL BEAUTIFUL POSTS HE MADE MADE HIM THE TOWNIEST MOTHERFUCKER WHO LIVED EVER AND I'M SURE THAT BULLSHIT PUSH ON ANEN IS ACTUALLY CORRECT AND ABSURDLY BEAUTIFUL

Nice catchup. I can't see scum going to all that effort, especially if there is little or no pressure. You go on my likely town list.
I followed all of it but this post. Why the change of heart? I happen to agree on MTD and plan to follow that thread at some point.

Also you commented on my play style. Part of my scum hunting style is to make less committal posts like the ones you quoted to see who reacts to them and who doesn't.

[davesaz]

Regarding the playing like a robot quote, it's a profession tell. I'm a systems engineer / software engineer / inventor. Usually my strongest reads are on logic terms, which requires one hell of a lot of input. I tend not to jump to conclusions quickly. I also tend to distrust players who PoE with very little material on the eliminated players. Since I only have two games on the site, the meta might as well not exist for my reads other than the players I've seen before.

[davesaz]

Short and kinda joking (to me) posting style, making assertions but without much logic, not coming back to follow up on the comments. These are the type of posts which can be laughed off as not being really serious. In my experience, posting like this can be an indicator of scum being talkative to look active but not wanting to take a really big stand on anything that they can't back out of. It's not a very strong indicator, but it identifies you as someone to watch. Also a quick perusal of your iso shows that the majority of your posts lack a quote for context, thereby making them a bit more difficult for others to use with proper context. This leaves opportunities for using misrep claims as a defense.

This post feels very much like cherry picking. I think I've taken hard stances and I think its pretty hypocritical for you to say that I'm not taking hard stances while you aren't voting me.

There a huge difference between having a hard stance and being able to show what the reason for that stance is. I don't see continuing comments on your stances or any attempt to follow up to prove the read or convince others of it.

^
is scum

vote:50 shades

This is a perfect example. You say 50 shades is scum, and vote. That seems to be a hard stance, by your definition. But you say nothing about why. Without that explanation it makes no sense at all. Only scum try to sow discontent and confusion. Town may do that inadvertently, but they

never

try

to do it. Even when town have nothing to go on but a gut read, they typically say that.

VOTE: Nero Cain

[davesaz]

this thread has a lack of Dave posting and Mollie votes.

I posted all I needed to along with my vote.

See this post?

^
is scum

vote:50 shades

And your reply. Key part snipped, and then spoilered in its entirety.

Not entirely sure if its a reading thing or if you are scum going out of his way to misrep me (I'm going with scum!) but claiming that I don't have reasons for suspecting people and that I had little content (both untrue btw) is a blatant lie. Now why would town do that?

Spoiler: Nero's defense

*rev rev rev*
^
chainsaw sounds

I kinda disliked his early trolling and cluttering up the thread

^
explaining why I was early voting DS

Even though you do this in basically every game ever, you jumped too early on asking for my reaction to my wagon. You should've waited until more votes piled up.

yeah, please get to dying. You are basically waving me off which I think is far more likely to come from scum then town and the wgwerts was all "STOP VOTING DS" so your "you jumped too early on asking for my reaction" really doesn't make sense in context of the gamestate.

^
pointing out that I didn't like DS waving me off AND explaining why I dislike Wegurts. And the wegurts thing felt like it should have been pretty obvious so that "YOU HAVE NO REASONING FOR VOTING WEGURTS!!!" seems sorta fake. Fake, like Mollies in-game personality.

Not entirely sure if its a reading thing or if you are scum going out of his way to misrep me (I'm going with scum!) but claiming that I don't have reasons for suspecting people and that I had little content (both untrue btw) is a blatant lie. Now why would town do that?

I think Mollie is very likely scum 'cause townMollie doesn't town read townNero thus means is very likely to be scumMollie.

I still think DS is p scummy. Maybe it was just GIF being worthless town...idk. Maybe Mollie was bussing him earlier dunno yet but like if you are town you should sheep me to victory or like you could just die after 50 shades of scum flips.

I'm responding directly to the 50 shades vote.

[davesaz]

I'm responding directly to the 50 shades vote.

ok but I wasn't.

I don't see continuing comments on your stances or any attempt to follow up to prove the read or convince others of it.

and I was proving you wrong.

Where's the followup on 50 shades then?

[davesaz]

Y'all are having real trouble keeping track of who the votes are on.

Nero is voting 50 Shades. MonkeyMan is voting Nero. But the discussion is continuing as if they're both on DS. What's up with that?

I'm still on Nero because his current vote on 50 was without explanation, and I want to draw more attention to this because 50 only warrants a ? on Nero's scum list.

[davesaz]

Y'all are having real trouble keeping track of who the votes are on.

Nero is voting 50 Shades. MonkeyMan is voting Nero. But the discussion is continuing as if they're both on DS. What's up with that?

I'm still on Nero because his current vote on 50 was without explanation, and I want to draw more attention to this because 50 only warrants a ? on Nero's scum list.

monkeyman is not voting nero. he's voting death stare.

My mistake, must have clicked the wrong line on overview. Was only scanning for the last vote. Makes me wonder who it was then.

I stand by the point with Nero though, what's up with all the talk being one player and the vote being another?

[davesaz]

caught up now.

dave is ignoring my questions like the plague so I know who I'm killing tonight.

I don't see any question. Care to reiterate?

[davesaz]

Not to mention, who you're killing? Really?

[davesaz]

For Dave

What do you think of Anen saying that your vote on me is maybe a chainsaw of mollie?

If reads/votes without reasons are so scummy, why are you ignoring Heartless who has a scum read on 50 and has yet to provide reasoning?

Thanks. Now I know what your post immediately after mine meant. I had to use the wiki to have a clue of what you're talking about. I'll hilight the phrase relevant to my answer.

The key to identifying this tell is intent -

it is possible to confuse Chainsaw Defense with a player who simply finds the attacker scummy

and has no intent of defense. In general, you can be reasonably sure that this tell is involved if a) the player supposedly using Chainsaw Defense has not previously been especially critical of the player he is now attacking, and b) the player supposedly using Chainsaw Defense seems to find the player he is supposedly defending at least reasonably pro-town.

The point is that you posted a naked vote. I thought it was scummy because it's a vote with no other text at all.

TBH I didn't notice the comment from Anen, and would not have known what it meant even if I did. I'll have to look at that. More correctly, I'll have to look

for

it, then I can look at it.

[davesaz]

Not to mention, who you're killing? Really?

Why do you want to know who I am killing?

I can see that this didn't come across without the tone of voice. Probably should have used some formatting there. It's supposed to be incredulous accented on the

you're killing? Really?

[davesaz]

^
is scum

Why? (You meant the previous post, Nero)

*rev rev rev*
^
chainsaw sounds

(Edit: it was about Davesaz's vote on Nero)

And that was the very first thing coming into my mind as I had saw that. We should keep this part of the thread in our minds, I think.

This post, I'm guessing. It wasn't directed at me and I didn't understand what it meant even if it had been...

And now, I'd

still

like to know the why behind post 523. What was scummy about that post? Correctly reading Nero hinges on this. I have no desire to tunnel, just need answers.

[davesaz]

Next case, while we wait for Nero to explain. I was initially very skeptical of the folks reading wgeurts as scum for no lynch. I thought the whole newcomer to the site and that's how we play where I come from thing seemed genuine. But later activity is very disturbing. Being newbie and not knowing what to do could go a little way to explaining it, but after a point it starts to stink. Of scum.

Spoiler: chain of posts

We need to start making a decision, we are all split on our reads so we need someone to take lead and feed us compelling evidence. Grayfoxx we still await your read on everyone.

You don't think there's any compelling evidence at all?

Yes there is, there's however 23 pages to search through >.>

ok, whats the compelling evidence you think?

Scummy play through-out the game, following others while not providing anything themselces, spurting nonsense, etc.

Who is that about?

Anyone, just somebody find it and present it for us. We need a strong case right now so we can discuss together and not in seperate little grudge fights.

Why don't YOU go find this? Why do others have to do the work for you? It is only 23 pages.

I really don't like this, not one bit. If wgeurts is the experienced player that he claims, then he's seen the talk about PLing and the negative response it got. Playing up to the newbie (to this site) status would be a fine way to hide as scum. He can just claim that he's used to leaning on others. It seems safe to be anti-town in an obstinate way, and perhaps significantly safer than the reaction he might get if he makes a bad case.

Some of you might think I'm late to the party on this, but I'd also wonder why it's not the talk of the town. Unless you think it's too scummy to be scum?

[davesaz]

*twitch*

Was 613 a reply to me? Try giving context next time. Like I did here.

The short answer is OMGUS?

[davesaz]

Even if I'm not townreading Nero right now, even if I'm unsure whether your post (524) was a Chainsaw or not (it could have been), I strongly think that you're ignoring topics and posts – especially Nero-posts and you

should

be interested in those since you're voting for him!

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Davesaz

When I ask a question, I usually expect my name to be used when the answer is posted. Either by quoting the question (like I just did here in my reply to you) or by @name, or something. This helps especially when the "answer" is not specifically addressing the point that I asked, and when a lot of posts (like more than two) have intervened. Nero made a statement along the lines of "she thinks I'm a dick" (yes, I know there was more to it, I just don't want to multi-quote the post) which didn't seem to relate to the question I had asked and didn't refer to me in any way, so I did not see it as a reply to the question.

I already said I did not even know what a chainsaw was. Both Nero's and your reference whooshed right by. TBH I interpreted Nero's as "man, I'm really mad at you now".

@Nero

"Player1 is always scum when she reads me as alignment2" is not sufficient for my purposes. This is one of the worst kinds of reads. It ought to have a name. (General question, does this have a name?) I'm not buying this for a reason for your vote. Try again. Also, you responded to my post about wguerts as though I posted it as evidence against you. I posted it as a way of saying I don't like wguerts's posting and think he's scummy. Taking a post about someone else and making it about you in a defensive manner, when you could just explain your vote better, doesn't sit well with me. If anything it makes you look even scummier.

Back @Aneninen: See what I did there? I replied to another person and addressed it to them. Perhaps this will serve to illustrate why your vote on me is incorrect. Kindly look for scum now.

[davesaz]

God, we really need to make a desicion instead of endless squabbles.

Who do you think is scum? The way you ask others to solve the case very strongly implies that you just want a bandwagon to ride. That's a scum behavior and is going to get you lynched if you don't change quickly.

[davesaz]

Cough. 746

[davesaz]

says the man who ignored why I was voting Mollie...TWICE!

And is now saying that reason is bullshit. Try another reason, or hang.

[davesaz]

What do you think of Dave pushing me for my naked vote on you but ignoring ya'lls naked vote on DS and wegurts naked vote on ya'll?

This wasn't addressed to me and I'm actually interested in the answer, so the player it was aimed at should not take my reply as a cue to ignore the question.

Do you want the actual truth? Or better said, will you accept it? I've been reading the thread on phone, tablet, and computer using the "new posts" button on the bookmarks page. When you do that, it advances the read point to the top of the next page. and if you change devices before completing the page you miss the posts. I did not realize that was happening until you mentioned the naked vote. I would have jumped on it all the same, though it might not have caused a vote to move since I prefer to tree the present fox vs. chasing another.

You will notice that I have recently started pushing wgeurts for content, as I'm not very happy with the way he evaporated on us. This naked vote would just become part of the push.

Getting pissed off at one head of a hydra isn't going to help the game state. I appreciate the way you're engaging with the other head. I do stand by what I said about the tell you were ostensibly using. "She only reads me town when she's scum" is just

awful

as a scum read. Scum can just bypass it by giving you a mild scum, and you set up that player to never be able to honestly townread you as town.

[davesaz]

When I ask a question, I usually expect my name to be used when the answer is posted

I have a few problems with this. #1 I know you saw my 736 'cause you quoted it. My reply to you was in 733. So it seems hard to believe that you saw my 736 but missed my post 3 posts away? #2 I quoted you TWICE in my 733 so your excuse that you missed my post 'cause your name isn't in it despite quoting you is

"Player1 is always scum when she reads me as alignment2" is not sufficient for my purposes. This is one of the worst kinds of reads

What are your feelings on meta. This is obviously what I'm getting at here.

My 746 was a response to Aneninen, in response to 743, which itself referred to 567. On the first read I did not catch that 567 had anything to do with me, and had no reason to re-read it until I had to do research to post 746.

Not being from these parts, I have no ability to use meta to do my own reads. And I question when others use it, especially when they say it is meta but don't explain further. Regardless, that's still not a good tell no matter how much meta you have, because the moment scum know that's the tell they can avoid it trivially.

[davesaz]

Look, everything I'm posting is the literal truth. Fuck off if you don't believe me. When I say I didn't see something, I didn't see it. It's a goddamn game, and I have a job, wife, and 2 kids. I'm reading 3 games, and hundreds of pages of softcopy of various kinds on a daily basis. Skimming is an essential skill to my lifestyle, and unfortunately it means that I see the beginning of something unimportant and skip it until something important comes along.

UNVOTE:

You're having trouble reading too. I just got through saying that I'm looking at other people instead of Nero. But I keep having to respond to this shit because you keep bringing it up.

[davesaz]

Actually, no, I never got around to saying it. Probably because I stopped and replied to Nero's question first, and then never got back to it.

I was going to jump on wgeurts, but he posted stuff that was valid to look at. Now reviewing 50 Shades in light of wgeurts. Maybe I won't get interrupted by work.

[davesaz]

See

and understand

.

Wgeurts is cherry picking, and I really don't like it. Could just be because he's only up to 500, but when catching up I think it would be best to thread forward to newer material on the target player.

@Aneninen: Is what you're doing a chainsaw? Was Nero's post a cue to do this? Because you're going to a lot of trouble to read alignment into honest posting. I found something I thought was scummy, and the things that were posted in response to it didn't really change the fact that the original vote was for a totally bogus reason. Your attack makes zero sense in that light. I see nothing that exonerates the use of "She only town reads me when she's scum".

[davesaz]

What do you think of Dave pushing me for my naked vote on you but ignoring ya'lls naked vote on DS

and wegurts naked vote on ya'll?

This wasn't addressed to me and I'm actually interested in the answer, so the player it was aimed at should not take my reply as a cue to ignore the question.

Do you want the actual truth? Or better said, will you accept it? I've been reading the thread on phone, tablet, and computer using the "new posts" button on the bookmarks page. When you do that, it advances the read point to the top of the next page. and if you change devices before completing the page you miss the posts. I did not realize that was happening

until you mentioned the naked vote

.

I would have jumped on it all the same

, though it might not have caused a vote to move since I prefer to tree the present fox vs. chasing another.

You will notice that I have recently started pushing wgeurts for content, as I'm not very happy with the way he evaporated on us. This naked vote would just become part of the push.

Getting pissed off at one head of a hydra isn't going to help the game state. I appreciate the way you're engaging with the other head. I do stand by what I said about the tell you were ostensibly using. "She only reads me town when she's scum" is just

awful

as a scum read. Scum can just bypass it by giving you a mild scum, and you set up that player to never be able to honestly townread you as town.

Sorry, I write at too high a level. I know this is a problem for me but do not always catch it in time.

Here is how to read the bolded part.

I did not notice wgeurts naked vote, because my "next unread" post marker jumped past it when I switched devices. If I had noticed it at the time, I would have jumped on it. [because I hate naked votes with a passion, in case you didn't already get this] I have started pushing other people like wgeurts, and this would be part of that push had I noticed it.

So, I did say I was pushing other people. That makes me feel a little better.

[davesaz]

So, I've got home. First of all, as I promised, I would explain why I scumread "early lurkers".

don't care, there's nothing alignment indicative about being a lazy fuck
it's also better to scumread people for actual reasons once people start posting

TOWN:
Heartless
Anen
wg
MonkeyMan
Nero Cain

in other news, i'm pretty fucking close to solving the game

Why I voted 50 Shades part 2:

Spoiler: 50 Shades

So, I've got home. First of all, as I promised, I would explain why I scumread "early lurkers".

don't care, there's nothing alignment indicative about being a lazy fuck
it's also better to scumread people for actual reasons once people start posting

Double standard here; apparently what I'm doing isn't a good read.

TOWN:
Heartless
Anen
wg
MonkeyMan
Nero Cain

in other news, i'm pretty fucking close to solving the game

By post 500 I was still on her town list.
I'll end here but a scan of here posts make it clear that he just wants someone lynched and will attack anyone he can with weak short pushes to see if it will work.
Such a big lack of scum-hunting.

This is unbelievably old news, and a lot has happened since then. It may have made sense if it had been posted around the same time you voted. Posting it later, and in particular picking this old stuff as a reason, makes you look just as scummy as the original vote, if not more so. In contrast, Nero actually did post a reason immediately after being asked about it, and just did a really poor job of making it clear that what he posted actually was the reason. It was a thin reason too, but his efforts since then are a lot more genuine.

How about you catch up all the way and give us something based on a more recent game state.

[davesaz]

Prod dodge for awsum reason
Will be here tomorrow

When you get back, have you looked anywhere but MonkeyMan? I'm not really comfortable with your lack of real scum hunting.

[davesaz]

Of all the update checks I've done so far, I think MonkeyMan stands out as the worst. He's doing nothing at all to scum hunt. His vote was for a "WhiteKnighting" post that looked more like a joke than anything else. I have not quoted back that far because it's easy enough to find, and feel making the post longer is unnecessary.

Spoiler: Monkey Junk

Ok, what do you want to talk about?

I already responded to that.

But you wanted to talk. :'(

Because despite the definition they posted WhiteKnighting in mafia is primarily when scum jumps to the defense of a town person to look more town when said town person flips. That would mean they know I am town even though they think I am scummy.

I don't have an update because I am trying not to just see everything they do as scummy. I will look at them again: 1. if a wagon starts to form or 2. Tomorrow. I know at this point I will just confirmation bias myself into thinking they are scummy.

No, it was Death Stare who said the WKing thing and said it about Nero.

I think Nero is town. He is super townie.

lol, I am town so this will look good for you no matter what.

VOTE: MonkeyMan

[davesaz]

actually

VOTE: dave

I kinda wanna see where this goes.

A mislynch, of course. But I see you had a change of heart.

It's called iso player 1, see something. Iso player 2, see something. Iso player 3, decide that you really like them worse than players 1 and 2.

BTW, sthar8 is V/LA, in case you missed it. Maybe you should look where I've been looking and see if you agree. I know, a hydra of legendary players sheeping a newbie's hunting, what a concept.

[davesaz]

Just saying... It can also mean taking a break from this game, unless there is some requirement that it has to apply to all games? Even taking a break from all games...
But I'd better be careful or you'll think I'm defending someone, heaven forbid.

[davesaz]

Two him's in that sentence and I'm having trouble figuring it out.

[davesaz]

What do you think of him(sthar) calling me scummy for finding wegurts scummy while simultaneously accusing me of bussing him(wegurts)? Seems damned if I do, damned if I don't.

I also don't think it was hard to figure out.

I think you placed too much emphasis on that post. It could be a simple theory statement, or it could be a reaction test. Reacting to it that way actually pushed you a notch closer to scummy (at that time) in my view. Being willing to bring up ancient history like that at this time pushes you a notch toward town, so it breaks even.

V/LA notwithstanding, I currently think sthar8 is on the scummy side of the scale. At least enough to warrant testing.

Pedit: @50 -- pointing out facts. Acknowledging that I'm cognizant of how people seem to misinterpret my intent. Read this new post.

[davesaz]

For the record, being scum read and voted doesn't bother me. Being accused of lying about not seeing + understanding something hits a hot button.
(TBH this is probably going to be a soft spot when I finally get a scum role, because it's kinda hard to be scum without actually lying about something)

I've had my rant and moved on.

Pedit: MonkeyMan's behavior in the quoted posts is scummy. Did I forget to say that? To expand on this, he's not scum hunting and apparently never was really serious about it. He happened to be the next one I ISO'd, and I stopped at that point to do my day job, so had to make a decision on who to pressure.

[davesaz]

Of all the update checks I've done so far, I think MonkeyMan stands out as the worst.

He's doing nothing at all to scum hunt. His vote was for a "WhiteKnighting" post that looked more like a joke than anything else.

I have not quoted back that far because it's easy enough to find, and feel making the post longer is unnecessary.

Spoiler: Monkey Junk

Ok, what do you want to talk about?

I already responded to that.

But you wanted to talk. :'(

Because despite the definition they posted WhiteKnighting in mafia is primarily when scum jumps to the defense of a town person to look more town when said town person flips. That would mean they know I am town even though they think I am scummy.

I don't have an update because I am trying not to just see everything they do as scummy. I will look at them again: 1. if a wagon starts to form or 2. Tomorrow. I know at this point I will just confirmation bias myself into thinking they are scummy.

No, it was Death Stare who said the WKing thing and said it about Nero.

I think Nero is town. He is super townie.

lol, I am town so this will look good for you no matter what.

VOTE: MonkeyMan

You see, the problem with this post is that fact that you just quoted posts but didn't explain why they are scummy.

Bolded for the visually impaired.

[davesaz]

Sorry Jingle, got your pagetop by mistake. I suggest bumping twice in that situation and then editing the 2nd bump.

[davesaz]

@Aneninen: Is what you're doing a chainsaw? Was Nero's post a cue to do this? Because you're going to a lot of trouble to read alignment into honest posting. I found something I thought was scummy, and the things that were posted in response to it didn't really change the fact that the original vote was for a totally bogus reason. Your attack makes zero sense in that light. I see nothing that exonerates the use of "She only town reads me when she's scum".

Lololololol, I've been waiting for that post. ^_^ And it's not a Chainsaw. Remember, I also thought that Nero's case was very weak. I'm not scumreading you beacuse you voted for Nero. I have plenty of other reasons for that, you can find them in my previous posts.

There is something I don't understand. You wrote that Wguerts's case was weak. (I also found certain parts of it weak.) And you're voting for Monkeyman in your next post with a very short explanation but with a very long quote-wall. Why?

Wgeurts posted, and the post made more sense than his previous. I decided not to pull the lever on voting him, so I had to look at someone else. MonkeyMan came up next. The reason was there, and I thought it's reasonably strong. He isn't scum hunting. His best reply was to be puzzled and then make a joke vote.

@Jingle, deleting the bump, that works too.

[davesaz]

T S O, welcome! Lots of catch up but at least you don't need to do any damage control from your silent predecessor.

[davesaz]

I, again, don't think you have a valid point when the only people doing anything this game is 1) us and 2) heartless.

Really? Does this mean you're not reading the thread at all?

[davesaz]

I might have said you're the only people NOT doing anything this game.

And yes, serious. If you can't town read me from what I've posted, then mafia is not the game for you.

[davesaz]

help on star would be huge.

If this V/LA would ever end so there is material to analyze.

[davesaz]

Tbh i dont remember. Could look later.

[davesaz]

Because my 903 was on phone at a restaurant.

[davesaz]

Survey say...


Gold-plated, scum coated BS. I'd vote it right now, if I didn't hate to vote inactives this early in the game.

[davesaz]

@Davesaz. Whom has you been talking about in your latest posts? In some cases I can't figure out whom has you been talking to.

The post welcoming TSO is obviously directed to him.

The posts questioning 50's statement that they're the only ones actually playing were clearly directed at them.

903 and later are answering the question posed by 50 and Nero about sthar8. I was not happy about sthar8's posting and believe I've said that before. I would like to see more material, because lynching sthar8 right now would be more about policy on inactives than on continuing scummy posting. If it became necessary to vote sthar8, I would probably quote some stuff to illustrate why I thought it was scummy.

Long story short, I'm a little surprised you're not able to understand what has been happening, but it would be hypocritical of me to castigate you for it.

Further news, my current read on MonkeyMan has not changed. I think too little reasoning has been posted, when there was plenty of opportunity to do so. I don't see a lot of genuine scum hunting. I'm a lot more comfortable with Nero than I was before. Multiple people have fallen off the radar and need to be re-examined. The extension will help with that.

[davesaz]

This was directed at 50 shades.

What have either of you done this entire game which merits anything?

While I overreacted some to the reply, I also agree in part with the question. The push has not been consistent and at times has lacked evidence and context.

[davesaz]

This was directed at 50 shades.

What have either of you done this entire game which merits anything?

While I overreacted some to the reply, I also agree in part with the question. The push has not been consistent and at times has lacked evidence and context.

what are you even talking about here I forgot that star was even in the game which is why I am nearly positive that star is scum. nacho doesn't fully get it but he is letting me go with it cos on d1 he knows that I know wtf I am doing even if it looks crazy to some people.

that you are even talking to me instead of nacho whom nobody wants to lynch ever cos god knows I have tried I managed it once but he was town and that is what he gets for voting me on d1 is proof that we are town.

if you have a reason as to why star is town I am so all ears. cos I am telling you he isn't.

I actually have no reason to believe that. He's providing no evidence that he's actively playing the game with a town mindset. What I'm struggling with is deciding between useless and scum. I do believe there is a difference and we should aim for scum if possible. Useless are lynch worthy only when there isn't a good candidate for scum. It is a fine line and I'm not sure.

My preference is for cases which are built on evidence and the analysis of that evidence. Next come reads which are based on tendencies in what someone is posting (which can be pointed to using evidence but not clearly backed by logical analysis), and my least preferred is reads based on historical knowledge about player tendencies, which I have no access to. What I think I'm seeing from your slot is a mixture of type 2 and 3, not a lot (if any) type 1. Hence, I'm looking for more evidence and context for reads.

[davesaz]

I saw the same things on wgeurts. On phone so cant easily quote with the small screen and kbd.
VOTE: wgeurts

[davesaz]

VOTE: massive

will also accept dave and 50 shades votes

all other votes are inferior and will be made fun of by me

Let's get something straight right away. Several RL days have passed, and therefore it's not acceptable to just vote without saying why.

[davesaz]

VOTE: massive

will also accept dave and 50 shades votes

all other votes are inferior and will be made fun of by me

Let's get something straight right away. Several RL days have passed, and therefore it's not acceptable to just vote without saying why.

Tough rhetoric, dave. There's not much in the way of actions this game to back it up, though. You really don't have much room to give Anti grief about anything.

The dave and 50 Shades reads are mine. I plan on talking Antihero into voting you, by the way, because I think you're scum.
The tail end of yesterday for you was spent voting MonkeyMan, who I think is probably town. Ostensibly, your reason for voting him was "pressure," but there's a lack of follow-through on this promise. In subsequent posts, you don't work to advance the wagon or interact with MonkeyMan himself in any meaningful way. You seemed to be perfectly content letting your vote fester on a failed wagon that never exceeded two votes, but that never seemed to bother you. Reads on people outside of MonkeyMan are left mostly undeveloped and there's a distinct lack of transparency in your overall view of the game. I also wasn't a fan of the earlier Nero Cain push (Nero Cain is a townread).

-TTH

Nice reply, wrong issue. The vote was on massive without a reason. I'm looking for that reason.

[davesaz]

VOTE: massive

will also accept dave and 50 shades votes

all other votes are inferior and will be made fun of by me

Let's get something straight right away. Several RL days have passed, and therefore it's not acceptable to just vote without saying why.

^^^^
all you need to know about why dave is an ok lynch.

vote:massive

You too, what's the reason to vote massive?

[davesaz]

VOTE: massive

will also accept dave and 50 shades votes

all other votes are inferior and will be made fun of by me

VOTE: massive

i'm pretty pissed at all of you right now. Seriously, fuck all of you.

Welcome back, I guess? Why the angst?

[davesaz]

Nice reply, wrong issue. The vote was on massive without a reason. I'm looking for that reason.

No, you're nitpicking. Anti's already talked about why he thinks massive is making a bad case.

Where were you yesterday?

-TTH

I don't see the leap between massive's "bad case" and scum. How do we distinguish between town massive misunderstanding early Nero vs. scum massive misrepresenting early Nero?

Your slot is saying plenty but explaining next to nothing. How do we distinguish between town with God-like abilities and scum pulling cases out their ass? My assumption is that if you can't / won't explain it, then you're scum. I don't know any of you from Adam and have to go on just what you have posted in this thread. This game is not called leap of faith.

You might be right. I would gladly evaluate your case, if you explained what the case is. If I find it has merit, I might join the party.

Same goes for everyone. If there is a case presented, I'll consider joining it. If there is no case presented or reason that you're joining another case, I'll be inclined to to think you're scum. I'm going to see no case as more scummy than a bad case.

[davesaz]

VOTE: massive

will also accept dave and 50 shades votes

all other votes are inferior and will be made fun of by me

VOTE: massive

i'm pretty pissed at all of you right now. Seriously, fuck all of you.

Welcome back, I guess? Why the angst?

Hi. Are you town?

Absolutely.

I would have also liked to ask about the naked vote (see my other comments on the subject), but wanted to give you the chance to reply to the first question.
What has you upset with "all" of us?

[davesaz]

I simply don't understand the players' interaction pattern (or how should I call it). Day1 was 43 pages long. In such a long time, there should have been player-blocks formed, or at least, mini-blocks. I mean, a couple of players who agree in their reads more-or-less, pushing the same wagon with well-built cases, or anything. I can see no such things.

I totally agree with this at the general concept level. It has been noted that I didn't produce much day 1, and I'll openly admit to that. The reason was that not a whole lot made very good sense to me. I got the general tone that several players/slots had not the slightest bit of interest in any of the genuinely odd stuff that I brought up, like they didn't care what was actually posted in the thread. To me, it looks like a whole lot of "I know these people and how they play, this set are scum and that set are town" with absolutely no coherent thought behind it. Now D2 I finally got at least some explanation of the massive case, and the explanation made sense. TBH, I haven't had a chance to look to see if the evidence matches the accusation, so I have not decided whether the case is a good one. But it's definitely progress IMO.

[davesaz]

I have time to re-read and do actual analysis. Hooray! Going one player at a time. First two from the player list in this post.

Sthar8: Town.
Analysis: 235 is some good insight into wgeurts at that point in the game, and digs at Nero and MonkeyMan for their focus on newbietells. This point is early on in the interaction test with Fox. 285 replies to several people (broad focus). 354 Shows continuation of previous activity and remains broad focus. 1023 shows some reads evolution. 1036 Notes that cases against massive are understandable but doesn't vote until 1055. Summary: seems to be going along with massive because the case(s) are understandable and town needs a lynch. Scum could do this but the broad focus in several posts and the reads progression look to be town driven.

Heartless: Town
Analysis: 169 is kinda sorta an analysis of some posting. 213 and 214 look at several people (broad focus) and includes logical thought process. 288 focuses on only one player (Aneninen) and doesn't give a why, but it does evaluate the quoted posts. 292 explains 288, and it's a fairly good explanation. <note to self, take a deeper look at the allegation from 292> 294 notices massive and asks what he's doing. 337 shows broad focus and reads progression. Laments a lack of town reads. [371] Shows more reads progression. Hydra play is making my head hurt big time. 625 has followup. 747 latches on to massive and starts making a case. "Continued" in 748, 749, 760. <note to self, this is the massive case I want to verify> 972 Votes massive 1122 Explains thought process to me. Summary: Broad focus, followup, reads progression, doesn't duck when I asked for an explanation. This last part makes sense for town who think they have a good case, would not make sense for scum to go into this kind of explanation.

[davesaz]

I got time to look in depth at massive. I could only see one firm read by him in all this time, and it's the really weak case on Nero for "claiming that he always found wgeurts to be scummy". Not seeing any real suspicion of anyone else being scum, and no town reads. I could see town being defensive, but not to the extent of being absent on the scum hunting front. It could be that there is something subtle going on in his play, but I'm just not seeing it. Don't think it would reveal much to quote, since I'd have to quote everything to prove an absence of reads. Besides, with as much defending as massive is doing, if he really did post a read he can always defend against me too.

Don't think I'm ready to vote yet, still lots to look at. But I do find massive scummy enough to go along today if it gets down to he's the only wagon. I find it strange that we don't have at least two major suspects, there is still a lot of work to do.


Side note: A scum team going for no lynch could have been trying to set up a godfather to be copped, given that close to 50% of the possible setups have a godfather.

[davesaz]

Let's suppose for a moment that you're town. Perhaps you'd like to do something productive for town other than defend yourself?

[davesaz]

Side note: A scum team going for no lynch could have been trying to set up a godfather to be copped, given that close to 50% of the possible setups have a godfather.

This right here doesn't sit well with me at all. Like at all.

VOTE: davesaz

For real, what was the purpose of this part of the post?

I made an observation about the setups which are possible under C9++, and a theory about why scum might arrange a no-lynch. I don't see any reason to be especially jumpy about it. If this observation is useful then good. It may be totally useless.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Wgeurts

Appeal to emotion is not going to help you here. If you know you aren't playing well how come you aren't trying to fix it? What was with your vote? You didn't even give a real reason you just said it was because of ISO. What about the ISO exactly didn't you like?

Wrguerts is scum. How is that not obvious by now?

For real, what do I have to do to get people to talk to or about me?

Let's talk about your wgeurts read / vote. It seems rather disjointed, like you're not pressing it at all. That comes off as way too shallow for town. I see things I don't like about wgeurts, but I'd like to see some explanation from you that shows your read is genuine and not just a shot in the dark. You might be seeing the same things or different, which is fine either way.

[davesaz]

Activity is dead.

You have the option of contributing to the problem or the solution. Seems quite a few of your recent posts are contributing to the problem.

Do you have any other scum reads? Or reads in general? No, I don't want to read the thread, I want you to say what you're thinking.

Why move your vote away from someone who is clearly scum to you, and onto someone who posted a setup theory? Why not change your vote back?

I can't tell if Heartless and 50Shades moving off massive is the result of a legitimate read on sthar, or scum trying to keep us so confused we can't lynch anyone.

One of my problems this game is that the hydras are not internally consistent, which is keeping my reads on them in a continuous state of churn. When there are 2-3 players in a game who are highly inconsistent, it makes the game very difficult. More problems are the AtE's like sthar's "fuck you all" post, which is either sad if the V/LA was legit, or genius if it was not. Add a few apathetic (probable) townies, and there isn't enough material to get a definite scum!!! on anyone.

I guess the best thing to do is concentrate on the best available maybe scum.
VOTE: wgeurts

[davesaz]

You guys could lynch me and then you could talk about how mollie's scum.

With two votes, you're posting this? Nothing keeping you from doing things like, actually hunting scum. Considering that at least two of us (wgeurts and myself) are lacking the meta background, quoting stuff in this thread to push your scum reads would be a really good thing

TM

. Not that I really care that much about you convincing wgeurts, since he's probably scum, but you could make it easy for me. Unless you're trying to make it hard on us.

If you're town and blowing off the game with no reason, that's against wincon. I give you benefit of the doubt that there could be a reason...

[davesaz]

235 is some good insight into wgeurts at that point in the game, and digs at Nero and MonkeyMan for their focus on newbietells.

I also disagree with this. Not only do I know that I'm town and I feel like Monkey is town (he has 1 post that makes me a lil' uneasy but meh) so he's misreading two townies, but that's null. Both voting for no lynch and or advocating for no lynch and defending a "pl" or in this case, a perceived pl, or both things that can and have come from newb scum. Wgurts is just as likely to receive a red pm as the rest of us so him being a newbie doesn't mean we should ignore bad/newbie play. You should not be using this as a towntell for sthar me thinks.

I'm using it in read progression on sthar, to answer the question "was the focus moving during the active period". It's trying to read the active period and see what that says if we ignore the inactive period. More recently, I'm losing faith in sthar big time. Even if the V/LA was genuine, behavior after the V/LA looks like crap. I just posted a wake up call, we'll see what happens.

I expected a newbtown wgeurts to wake up and adjust. That didn't happen, and it's been going downhill, hence my vote.

[davesaz]

If I don't think someone is scum, I'm not going to join the wagon.
Try actually proving a case, maybe someone will believe you. And something which is not meta based, because I don't give a rat's ass about the meta.

[davesaz]

Try reading the next paragraph BTW.

[davesaz]

You don't consider my posts to be agreement / commenting on your case? Or I'm not a person?

[davesaz]

Or is this some other case you're talking about?

[davesaz]

I've been thinking wgeurts is scum for a long time. But since you ask I can see that I never fully explained it in my own words.

Spoiler: long quoted post

Okay, there are less than

13

12 hours left so I can't wait more with this. I'm posting the case I've been thinking about for a while. (Even if it seems to be a drastic change of my reads.)

Wguerts has been wasting our time all the time and done no real scumhunting at all.

Spoiler: about Wguerts...

We were fooled by his early-posts. (Okay, not all of you but I was fooled, definitely.) By suggesting No Lynch and talking about theoretical question he had two goals, in my opinion. First of all, he wanted to "detour" the game (and I was stupid enough to get engaged in conversations about the setup, about theories, etc.). Plus, he wanted to wait until cases against other players were emerging.

In 165 he was "tempted to lynch Nero" but did nothing. (As far as I can remember, Nero was FoS according to many players' reads.) Null-posts and the "let's do No Lynch" posts followed that point for a long time.

In 289 he asked

"Any articles anywhere I can read to improve?"

. But I had told him in 121

"Also, Wguerts, wiki.mafiascum.net is your friend."

. It seems that he wasn't (hasn't been?) reading the thread at all!

In 295 things changed, he voted for DeathStare (his reasons were vague, I think). However, in that post and in 298 he told us that his scumread were MonkeyMan and DeathStare – those were the longest wagons at that time!!!

Aaaand, surprise! In 397 he posts a long case against Monkeyman and votes him a single post later! By that time, DeathStare had 3 votes (including his vote), Monkeyman had 4. Yet again, he joined the longest wagon and put Monkeyman to L–2.

Than a long pause comes in his posts. Keeps on suspecting Monkeyman and then, in 664 he votes for 50Shades. (Again, he turned that wagon into the longest one.) A naked vote! He explains his vote much later, in 787/788. Yes, those contained valid points but I've read that part again. Am I right that his case contained nothing new and contained only very old things? Also, in 757 he told that his scumread was Monkey, and a post later he corrected himself to Monkey and 50Shades. (He was voting for 50Shades at that time). Again, his scumreads were mirroring the most popular wagons.

We ignored 915. Check this:

MTD

(in 913):

"Well shit. I completely forgot about this. I will try to catch up -.-"

Wguerts's answer was:

"Have fun, I've completely lost it after doing the same."

– was he suggesting MTD

not

trying to catch-up at all??!

974 is important too.

"Could we like, make a decision as a group or something? Right now we are all aimlessly voting random people. If everyone puts everyones names plus no lynch in a list with most wanted at the top and least at the bottom I'll do an istant run-off vote so we can actually progress. Who will join this?"

– I've checked and they indeed used a similar system in the game he linked for me. Though, as far as I can remember, this system was criticized by some players there! (I might be wrong here, I didn't read the whole game, it was terrible and not because of Wguerts – don't put it in a wrong way.)
But it's more important that I asked a question about that post in 1008 and he's never answered it. That was not the only case: as far as I can remember, he tends to ignore questions, while...
...he answered my question about his games on his other site quickly! Sooooo, if he's been able to answer a question which he may have considered an unimportant one (as for this game), why doesn't he answer "real" IN-game questions??? He even started a conversation with me about that other game!!!

Finally, his vote for Monkeyman in 1020. Again, without any reasoning (though, check out his "explanation". Just check it out!). I've been waiting for a detailed post about Monkeyman but I don't think it'll ever arrive.

TL;DR version: Wguerts
(1) does no real scumhunting
(2) keeps voting for the most popular scumreads/wagons
(3) parrots things pointed out by others in his arguments
(4) gets engaged into a conversation eagerly if it's NOT about this particular game but is unwilling to give (proper) answers if there are questions about the game itself.

Wguerts is likely scum.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Wguerts
Sorry, hoor!

@Everyone
If you think that my case is wrong, point it out quickly, please! If not, we might have enough time for this wagon.

I'm off to work in an hour or so, I'll try to read (and make short mobile posts in every 2–3 hours or so) but I can't promise anything. When I get home we'll watch Twin Peaks with my sweetheart, because we watch the whole series every fall. So, most probably I'll be unable to produce another detailed post Today.
As for other wagons (briefly, because I'm in a hurry).
Unless the forthcoming posts change my reads drastically, my opinion is the following. I'd lynch Davesaz but that won't happen, I suppose. Monkeyman is sort of okay, I posted about this before. (He's either newb-town, or the SK if we have one). 50Shades and Massive: I'm unsure about these. Sthar8 and Nero are bad ideas, I'm unwilling to lynch them Today.

I saw the same things on wgeurts. On phone so cant easily quote with the small screen and kbd.
VOTE: wgeurts

I need to get my shit together and do RL things right now. There is more stuff since then on wgeurts which doesn't make him any less scum IMO.

[davesaz]

Crap, hit the wrong button and some things that should be in the spoiler are not. And I could have trimmed the quoted stuff to just wgeurts related. Oh well...

[davesaz]

You don't consider my posts to be agreement / commenting on your case? Or I'm not a person?

I don't remember you doing that at all.

1255
I see you didn't really reply to it. Folks should remember this for the next day.

[davesaz]

Quick side trip into setup analysis. Not a push for anyone more to claim, just pointing out some things that PRs might find useful in interpreting results.

From the setup in the wiki, it's about even chances we have a vig or a SK. From the presence of a godfather, town has either 2 or 5-7 power roles. There is a decent chance that mafia has a roleblocker, a certainty if town has more than 2 power roles (since 3 and 4 roles are ruled out given a godfather).

If town has any role other than roleblocker, then town has more than 2 power roles and MonkeyMan's claim does not prove he's town because there are both town and scum roleblockers in play.

And now for the more important matter of re-reading and updating analysis. This will take a while...

[davesaz]

Taking speculation one step further, I'd be willing to bet that N1 the SK's bulletproof was popped, and N2 the SK killed while the mafia was blocked.
This might just finger the SK by the pattern alone. It certainly gives me an idea of where to check.

[davesaz]

Did MonkeyMan claim a N1 target? If not, I'd recommend waiting for a while.

As to voting, I was kinda hoping to see more discussion first. I'm worried that we could be misled by a plausible but untrue claim, or that we could misinterpret the claim results. Plus if we have other power roles (that's far from certain, but possible) I don't want a quick wagon that gives them nothing to steer their next actions.

[davesaz]

After reading the day's events more slowly, I think it's solved. The SK is pretty clear to me too, but now is not the time to go into that since we can lynch only one.

VOTE: Death Stare

[davesaz]

N1, mafia attempts to kill SK and triggers bulletproof. SK kills TSO
N2, monkey blocks mafia, SK kills 50

[davesaz]

Exceedingly high probability? That's a slip. Townies don't say they are high probability, they say they are town.
Trying to find a role you could claim that would fit the setup?

[davesaz]

Lets do this lynch then.

[davesaz]

The dawn breaks on your little adventure. You all appear to have moved around quite a bit during the night, but you find most everyone. Unfortunately, T S O has been hung from one of the trees.

An unsettling giggle echoes all around. "No Adventure is complete without Jingle Hat and Jingle Feet!" Well isn't that just grand. The Jester's rhymes dont appear to be stopping.

T S O,

Vanilla Townie

, was Murder/Death/Killed on N1!

Vanilla Townie

Welcome to Open 573, T S O

Stavrogin

, you are a

Vanilla Townie

.

Abilities:
Your weapon is your vote, you have no night actions.

Win condition:
You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated and there is at least one town player alive.

Vote Count 2.0

sthar8 (0):
Heartless (0):
davesaz (0):
GrayFoxxxx (0):
Aneninen (0):
Death Stare (0):
50 Shades of Purple (0):
wgeurts (0):
MTD (0):
MonkeyMan (0):
massive (0):
Nero Cain (0):
No Lynch (0):
Not Voting: sthar8, Heartless, davesaz, GrayFoxxxx, Aneninen, Death Stare, 50 Shades of Purple, wgeurts, MTD, MonkeyMan, massive, Nero Cain

With 12 alive, it is seven to Lynch or No Lynch.

Deadline for Day 2 is in (expired on 2014-10-25 16:00:00) on October 25th, 2014 at PST (GMT-8).

I have had posts not appear on preview, so it's not just you.

[davesaz]

Wow, where did that come from? lol

[davesaz]

I haven't yet decided if it helps town more to post my casae now than it does to wait. It certainly doesn't make sense to do so solely on the request of confscum.

[davesaz]

There have to be 5+ town PR to get 3 scum with a godfather.

[davesaz]

OK, this is taking too long. This might mean there really are more town roles in play, in which there could be a chance DS is town.
I'm working and don't have time to post my entire SK case all at once. I'll start by crumbing. It's helpful to see if anyone else sees it without the full evidence.

Who was extremely pissed off at the start of D2? Who was especially pissed off at mollie? Who said that mollie and TSO are the best people at reading them from meta? Who used a AtE to try to deflect a case where their scum meta might apply. (where SK would be included in scum) One person meets all of these statements. One person with motive to kill TSO and then retaliate against mollie after having bulletproof popped.

[davesaz]

Good scum get townread by people all the time. Read the evidence. The logic is very strong. The only thing that doesn't make sense, and that I won't have anywhere near enough time to check myself is the meta. Does this player have a tendency to lose it and "emotion slip" when things don't go their way?

[davesaz]

Testing. 1499

[davesaz]

Too many silent people.

The

only

way there can be missing kills, without MonkeyMan's roleblock having hit scum, is additional town PRs. And if there is even one more, there

must

be

at least

three to give us a total of at least 5. The only setups with a godfather are 0-2 T's (5+ power roles) and 5-7 T's. (0-2 power roles)

[davesaz]

Too many silent people.

The

only

way there can be missing kills, without MonkeyMan's roleblock having hit scum, is additional town PRs. And if there is even one more, there

must

be

at least

three to give us a total of at least 5. The only setups with a godfather are 0-2 T's (5+ power roles) and 5-7 T's. (0-2 power roles)

Isn't there still the possibility that the RB claim was false?
Also you are ignoring the possibility of crosskills.
Also don't forget the potential SK-bulletproof.

I bolded things and underlined for a reason. It is anti-town to fully explain the reason.

[davesaz]

Are you trying to argue for a no-lynch, let the scum kill the SK, and then come back to lynch the scum? What if the scum decide to leave the SK for later? That just gets 2 townies killed, unless the SK gets lucky enough to kill scum again. That seems to be a higher percentage play for scum because it gets them to wincon faster, though I'm not spending a lot of time thinking about the math on this right now.

[davesaz]

If we lynch scum, then the remaining mafia (if any) can't RB and kill the same night.

[davesaz]

Now if you're saying don't lynch the SK because the Mafia will take care of it for us, sure that's helpful but doesn't affect the decision today unless someone can verify MonkeyMan's block didn't hit scum.

[davesaz]

Crunching numbers...

[davesaz]

@MonkeyMan I don't think you get to just order people to claim, even something as simple as "not 1-shot vig". Is everyone scum if nobody responds? Does it help scum more than town if some answer and some don't?

Whatever you do, don't reveal your RB target until we know if the setup is 2T or 5T.

[davesaz]

1-shot town RB.

[davesaz]

If you read my iso, you will see clear evidence that I knew all along that it's either 5T or 2T.

[davesaz]

Missing kills could be intentional or someone who missed night. I'm one shot so there is a full rb. The previus post that was quoted should read there must be another role for Monkey claim to be false. In 5t there can be no other PR.

[davesaz]

Last night one of us blocked a kill.

[davesaz]

N1, mafia and SK submit kills on same player, TSO
N2,

monkey blocks mafia

, SK kills 50,

mafia tries to kill SK and pops bulletproof

N3, I block someone, Monkey blocks someone, only one kill. Since mafia would have tried to kill SK, I think the block is on the mafia.

There are other plausible scenarios for missing kills, many (perhaps all) of which boil down to the killer either forgot/wasn't able to send orders, or chose to not kill to either discredit the RB or get the RB's target lynched.

[davesaz]

Sthar.

[davesaz]

Oh, that was really smart. Why target the one person who is 100% behind your claim?

Either sk or mafia could still no kill or they could target the same. Or someone else lied in the claim phase.

Or my block still worked.
VOTE: sthar

[davesaz]

No, I think you're scum.

[davesaz]

I did previously post reasoning of why I already suspected sthar of being the SK. While I do continue to think that should be explored, it would be better to go another direction.
UNVOTE:

Nero Cain needs a serious look. The early naked vote on 50, which I called him on and he accused me of a chainsaw, could easily have been scum getting in an early vote on their partner. The chainsaw accusation could even have been a pre-planned move. Anenienen seems to have a thing for seeing chainsaws -- I have noticed it elsewhere but can't quote. The "I know who I'm killing tonight" sequence also struck me as a scum slip. It could be seen as crumbing a vig role, but we now have confirmation that this had nothing to do with it (unless at least 1 PR is lying). I can't see a townie crumbing a non-existent vig, and there was no attempt to write it off as a joke. There may be other things too, like vote anomalies, but it's after midnight and I don't have time to look right now.

[davesaz]

Yes the killing comment was about Nero. His chainsaw comment could have been to be certain you didnt miss it. If nero is mafia and the 50 vote was a planned action, he would have pointed the chainsaw finger at the first person to critisize his naked vote.

[davesaz]

I don't remember, did you provide a case?

[davesaz]

I believe he said it was wgeurts.

[davesaz]

I'm seeing 2 conftown and 6 potential suspects. Need to do a lot of reading.

[davesaz]

Wow, those crickets are deafening.

For my part, I'm working through stuff. Very active at work the past couple of days. Kinda hoping to see an active replacement.

[davesaz]

1. How the hell am I claiming last? Antihero at least should know what a terrible idea that is.

2. I'm blindingly and obviously a VT. If you need me to point out why, I can laters.

3. I still have boys and they're higher priority than you guys. I'll work out setup maths tomorrow.

Can you point to that blinding / obvious evidence? The fact that my block didn't work means that it isn't a reason to vote you, but I still have doubts.

Got a scum flip in a completed game for Nero which makes him look slightly more town here.

Really hoping we get something posted by Majiffy. But I forgot who was replaced?

[davesaz]

I'm looking at both Nero and Anen with regard to the chainsaw incident, as possible scum trying to get negative association information into the thread. Nero repeats it, referring to my "hard defense of 50" which is just plain bull. I could see Nero as SK based on overall behavior, but would need to re-read Anen.

[davesaz]

Nero repeats it, referring to my "hard defense of 50" which is just plain bull

ACTUALLY.....I was the first one that called your vote on me (for voting mollie) a chainsaw. I think when you call my case on Mollie (which was spot on btw) bad, call me scummy for naked voting 50 while conveniently ignoring other naked voters I think its perfectly logical to look at you as having defended your buddy.

I could buy this, if there were any evidence in thread that you thought 50 was scum before that vote. It would be really helpful if you could point to that, perhaps even with a quote.

[davesaz]

Heartless – high. They're saying that 50Shades were townreading and defending me. As for the latter one, see above. As for their so-colled townread: they were constantly townreading Heartless on Day1. All the time! Even their "soft-defense" case against me missed elements which they could have been found easily. I think they're drawing the attention away from themselves.

lol

you have fun with tth now

Since you're here, can you update us on who is scum?

[davesaz]

I have played on CivFanatics, Total War org, and TWC. And if you're in a modding hydra, could be you modded a game I played?

[davesaz]

Is that you saying you can't be the SK because you're 50's buddy?

[davesaz]

Try not being scummy when you're town. If you're town...

[davesaz]

caught up now.

dave is ignoring my questions like the plague so

I know who I'm killing tonight.

(emphasis bold+italic added)

One man's joke is another's scumtell.

But rather than do nothing but throw stones, how about we look at catching some scum.

As far as I can tell, the main reason for suspecting Massive is the no-lynch, on the theory that scum being off the wagon is what scuttled it. While there are some scummy things from just about every player, I don't see the balance of Massive's posting to be tilted to the scummy side. Especially when there are some individual posts from other players that are way scummier.

We have had a chronically inactive slot, and missing kills from either a SK or a scum team with a sole living member. Doesn't that implicate the inactive as being one or the other? If the inactive is the SK, even if mafia knows who it is (the popped bulletproof theory), then mafia could direct their kill somewhere else counting on the SK to be absent, to throw doubts on MonkeyMan's claim. If the inactive is mafia, then we would still have just one kill. But we give replacements a free pass despite there being fairly good evidence that the missing kills

could

be an inactive not sending orders. Doesn't this require some investigation?

[davesaz]

I don't see Heartless as fitting the inactivity profile. But that is only part of the potential solutions to no kills. There are two other potential solution types -- no-kill orders, and mafia + SK choose the same target on multiple nights.

Can anyone else offer comments on that theory?

[davesaz]

I'd kinda like to hear more from Majiffy, Sthar8, and Aneninen before end of day, so I won't push massive to L-1 right now.

[davesaz]

The majority of my focus would be that slot. Though there are a couple others I'd still like to hear more from.
Hope we can keep some conversation going.

[davesaz]

I promise not to post at all on saturday. That might extend to sunday depending how tired I am.

Will you promise to post plenty on Friday as compensation?

[davesaz]

@ everyone- I'd like to see suspect pools from all of you. I currently have heartless and Anen as town, leaving me with {brian, massive, nero} as my lynch pool. TellTaleHero's silence is making me paranoid though, they might switch spots with nero.

How about you post an update on your reasons for this suspect pool, aside from AA9's slot?
Does that need to wait for the catchup?

[davesaz]

Highly confident
2 conftown (Monkey, Dave)
1 town (Aneninen)

Somewhat confident
1 weak town (Massive)

Not confident at all
2 possible SK (Nero, Sthar8)
2 possible mafia (Heartless, ArcAngel9 slot)

I'm very unhappy about lynching Massive. Nero has been harping on Massive the whole game without even an iota of a case that I can understand (or more accurately remember).

I'm also very unhappy with the 3 townies I haven't positively ID'd. I can't read people who aren't posting. Reading people who are OMGUSing each other is more difficult than when they are not. You aren't distinguishing yourselves enough from the 2 non-town players, in ways that are unambiguously town.

There is a definite non-alignment indicative reason that Majiffy was replaced. I don't know site policy on discussing those reasons, though it is in the open for anyone to see who looks around a bit. The only thing that keeps me from calling the holder of that slot straight up scum is a little pity over replacing in to such a horrible slot so close to deadline. Maybe we should mercy lynch, if for no other reason than to preserve an active player to get some reads.

[davesaz]

This is really long so I'll spoiler.

Spoiler: Nero on Massive part 1

Why are you pretending like I wasn't voting him in 83?

It's a throwaway vote and you spend the whole post talking about how Death Stare is scummy and not wguerts. Are you saying you want us to believe you found wguerts legitimately scummy at this point?

Are you kidding me right now? The first sentence of 83 is me saying why I disliked wegurts post. The only part about DS was the last sentence. I don't think town would misrep me like that. You are also implying that I'm scum but not using your words. None of that comes from town.

massive
dave
sthar
50?
maybe wegurts

OMGUS is the reason, with a side of "he misrepped me"

You don't know, as in you're not suspicious of Death Stare anymore or... what? This recent post makes me think you still think Death Stare is scum, that's why I even asked about it in the first place.

idk as in I'm doubting myself. All of Massive, sthar, dave look really scummy and Mollie hydra and wegurts are still p suspicious to me. Stav is a totes unknown. That's already six and I'm more confident that scum is in the first 5 so GIF gets a pass today.

Going "x player always calls me scum so player calling me town means they are scum" is bad reasoning unless you can back it up, which you can't,

True story, I once lynched scumMuffin for the same thing. There is an ongoing element so I don't want to talk to much about this but it is a good idea to go through my games. What happens if I go through my games and find that Mollie calls me town as scum and scum as town?

Wait-oh. Have I misread Nero so far?
I've checked those posts and his votes. It seems that while he's voting for a player he keeps posting why another player is scum instead of giving arguments why the voted one is scum. Am I making out things of nothing again?

I really hate this post though. You are blindly agreeing with Massive's really bad push. I mean there's more than 1 scum in this game and I'm going to answer questions directed at me so I don't see how you can think that me answering a question about why I had voted player X but my vote is on player Y. Singular and or limited scumhunting is the hallmark of scum.

Mentions "massive's really bad push"

(1) how exactly could a newbie-scum play to "pro-standards"? Show me, where Wguerts suggested us "passing" him.
(2) as if towns never tried to prevent a policy lynch.
(By the way, most of us have never thought that we should policy lynch Wguerts.)

Are you reading the game? Half the reason that Monkey and I are getting flack is 'cause we think its possible that wegurts is scum. He is new to this site and everyone (except you?) agrees that he's playing like a new player. What I was saying is that new scum playing like a new player to get a "pass" is not outside the realms of possibility. Wegurts has never suggested we give him a pass and I don't think I ever said that he said that. I think sthar suggested that and I do get the vibe that ppl don't want to lynch him 'cause he's new.

I have seen town try to prevent a pl but I've also seen scum try to prevent a pl. DS wasn't even a pl though and wegurts acting like it was was odd me thought.

Are you scumreading Massive too? Why? Because he scumreads you?

I'm scumreading him 'cause his push that my wegurts vote was a throwaway is all kinds of junk. Why do you think town would misrep me like that?

It's an OMGUS because "misrep". But how is saying a wgeurts vote is throwaway a misrep? Misrep would have to be a statement about your statement.

I don't follow Massive blindly. He posted a case which was based upon your read progerssion. Well, that's one possible interpretation which, in my opinion, may or may not be true. His case is significant because it made me read your posts again

well ok.

but like....Massive was saying that my reads progression made no sense.

I told him that I voted him in post 83.

And now he's basically trying to use jedi mind tricks and claim that I really wasn't scumreading wegurts.

I don't think its a different interpretation at all and I think you should feel bad for buying said case.

I still don't understand what was scummy in his newbie-ness. (Though, his naked vote was a WTF. It's strange that you haven't posted about that.)
Can you link where Sthar8 suggested freepassing him?

It wasn't sthar. Monkey was arguing with DS about Wegurts and said something along the lines of "yeah, lets give him a pass for being new." His post was obviously sarcasm though. I guess I attributed it to Sthar 'cause he was all like "nope, these are not the scumtells you are looking for."

votes for nl
defends perceived pl of DS
"HE COULD BE A SPECIAL!"=fear mongering
I also very much dislike his 75. Ignoring the gamestate.
then 180s on DS and is all the sudden ok with DS getting lynched

Could these things come from scum? yes could the come from new town? yes Should we never lynch this player 'cause he's obviously new and there's apparently zero scum motivation in this? no

I'm also sad that no one found this funny.

Nero is very hungry for blood, I suggest we question him why he wants blood.

I'M A VAMPIRE!!!

Does everyone think that Massive's case was a (1) blatant misinterpretation or an (2) intentional misrepresentation?

So you agree that it was a misrepersentation/interpretation?

This acknowledges that it could be a misinterpretation (i.e. not intentional)

vote:massive

but MTD, that whole "Nero never scum read Wegurts" seems way too dumb to come from town.

Still an OMGUS side of misrep.

nero I moved on from scumreading you like forever ago. Your various reasons overlap with TSO's quite a bit.

ok......

but calling TSO a strong player looks like whiteknighting and I think that's often from scum.

I also hate Anen. Calls my monkey case crap, agree's with Massive's stupid case on me and then sheeps me? This is very confusing.

Reasons are still the case on Nero.

VOTE: massive

will also accept dave and 50 shades votes

all other votes are inferior and will be made fun of by me

Let's get something straight right away. Several RL days have passed, and therefore it's not acceptable to just vote without saying why.

^^^^
all you need to know about why dave is an ok lynch.

vote:massive

No new reasons

TINFOIL

Massive is scum and getting bussed by wgeurts and sthar

No new reasons

Mollie, why are you calling Massive scum but not voting him?

Did you miss the end of the day yesterday? The deadline wagon that we couldn't push through? He pretty much has to die now.

Why would Massive *have* to die just 'cause his wagon didn't go through? Yes, there was a good chance he'd get wagoned up and be the days lynch but there's no "we have to lynch him."

However, I have a kind of theoretical question. Is it a good idea to quicklynch a player now? After all, we've got plenty of time now – shouldn't we try to get more information on each other before lynching? (I've never been in a game on this site where a No Lynch occured. That'swhy I'm asking this.)

In the long run I don't think it'll matter. If Massive is scum then prolonging his lynch allows his team to A.) spread around Mist and B.) work on a counter lynch. Usually discussion is considered pro-town (and it is.) but forcing discussing just 'cause dl isn't up yet seems like it would be a bad idea. If we are still talking about stuffs then fine but I don't think we should artificially draw out the day.

If massive is scum? I thought you were dead set on massive as scum. The Mollie thing ends up being insightful in hindsight, but seeing it now does nothing to bolster the case back then.

I had four votes on me at deadline and would have been lynched had anyone been paying attention. How is that "fuck all reason"?

And anything specifically scummy about my play? Calling it "horrible" seems like you don't have any idea what might have been actually indicative.

Well, I don't think you being wagoned yesterday meant you were going to 100% be the lynch today. Yeah there was a good chance but I don'think there was any reason to claim this early 'cause hypothetically you might not have been lynched and yes, that's fuck all reasoning.

Ignoring the fact that your "case" on me is all kinds of bad...I do not like you claiming early. Also a lil' ticked off that you are selectively hunting me.

had to backtrack to fill in your scum read. Doing exactly the same here.

like here you are fussing at me that I'm retroactivly giving reasons why I was voting you and wgeurts.

but wgeurts is doing the same thing.

Still OMGUS.

I like how you are voting for me but have no anticipation of me being lynched.

and I like how you are desperately trying to twist my words. You got wagoned yesterday, there was a good chance you'd get wagoned today but that does NOT mean that you were 100% going to be the days lynch (unless maybe it was a planned bus.) Its so frustratingly stupid that I have THE hardest time thinking you are town.

Brian is town reading me? I always get so paranoid when players that usually scum read me flip and town read me.

Why is claiming you are a vanilla townie early scummy?

I'm arguing the same thing. Why is he scummy for this and I'm not?

NEW TINFOIL!

Scum have given up on Massive and Sthar and Mollie are distancing from each other.



but Massive is still scum, there's like zero town motivation for him to claim early. And now he's intentionally playing oblivious why that is bad.

The claim approaches being a reason.

NEW TINFOIL!

Scum have given up on Massive and Sthar and Mollie are distancing from each other.



but Massive is still scum, there's like zero town motivation for him to claim early. And now he's intentionally playing oblivious why that is bad.

go me! You guys think this theory might be true?

I also have a p strong desire to kill Dave today. Still not town reading Massive and Mollie was somewhat reluctant to vote Massive despite clearly calling them scum so I think its a good chance that its a scumbuddy. + Claiming early like that had no town motivation despite what he says.

Dave/massive and maybe sthar are my preferred lynch pool.

Hindsight is easy.

So, up to this point there is a lot of "OMGUS, his case on me was bad" and "claiming early is scummy". The best indicator comes at the end, with Mollie calling Massive scum but not voting. But for that to be a good indicator, 50 Shades has to be voting someone else that 50 said was less scummy.

I see Nero taking a position and noticing events which match the read. (Does Nero ignore Massive's activity which doesn't match the read? hmmm, IDK...)
I don't see Nero explaining the position in the kind of detail that I'd hope to see from town. Disappointing, but style...

[davesaz]

The crux of my case is that his early day2 claim wasn't town motivated
up until recently, he did nothing but defend himself
he's a confirmed liar

I guess in the morning I can make a bigger case with quotes and neat formatting.

so yeah its not like I haven't said this before so I don't get why you keep ignoring what I'm saying and then chide me for not saying things 'cause you haven't read them. You may infact be the scummiest confirmed town in the history of mafia.

So, I helped you out a little and pulled the majority of your posts that included Massive, up to the first one after 50 flipped.

I didn't intend saying you'd been on Massive the whole game to literally mean you've never scumread anyone else. Maybe "since D1" would have been a better and more accurate way to put it.

The 2nd point "did nothing but defend himself" I might find persuasive. The point can be made by either scum or town. When people use this point in their case, I hope to see some effort to actually show it. No effort and screaming from the rooftops give the accuser scum points and reduces the impact of the point against the accused. Some effort, without going over the top, gives the accuser town points and vastly increases the impact against the accused.

The 3rd point "confirmed liar" is the type of thing I expect to see actual proof of. A baseless accusation can be grounds for a PL if the accuser's standing is less than a town lean.

[davesaz]

Forgot to reply to another point.

so I don't get why you keep ignoring what I'm saying

It's the brevity. 1-2 lines does not give me warm fuzzies that you have a basis for what you're saying.
So many things like "<--- is voting scum and you should sheep" and "^ is scummy".

[davesaz]

Maybe that's confirmation bias talking. Once I formed an opinion based on all the early 1-liners, it became very difficult to believe Nero. That makes me want to overlook Massive, because "the person my scumread finds scummy is probably town".

If massive, as mafia, knew who the SK was (popped BP theory), he'd want us to lynch someone other than the SK. But until Monkey and I had both claimed, he didn't know that he wasn't RB or there wasn't another PR, so wasn't sure about the SK. Taking that into account, the remaining mafia now wants to defend the SK. Massive agreed with the theory the SK is inactive, but tried to debunk the best choice for that theory (Brian/Majiffy/AA9) in a really derpy way.

If you add that to being relatively quiet (but not silent) and not really coming out until the claims, plus having established an early VT claim, plus basically parking on Nero for so long, it adds up to a pretty solid case.

Having connected the dots myself, I'm downgrading Massive to likely scum, with intent to hammer. But I'm leaving the L-1 slot open for now.

[davesaz]

I got that one without the decoder ring, but thanks.

[davesaz]

Yo, Nero McFly!

Read 1741!

First line!

OK, I'll rephrase so you get it.

Maybe I had a bad case of confirmation bias because the first things I saw from you were baseless things.
Maybe that meant I didn't believe other stuff you posted.

Maybe I'm now realizing I was wrong. (about you, what else might the confirmation bias been about?)

You're town, massive is scum, I'm ready to hammer it.

(BTW, this also seems to show you're not reading my whole posts)

[davesaz]

Anti -- We have a L-2 and intent to hammer. Your intentions?

[davesaz]

Actually, don't rush, if you're going to work out the SK first then by all means please do.

Pedit- duh. Oops... lol

[davesaz]

I am at jack in the box getting dinner.

VOTE: massive

[davesaz]

Umm, vc?

[davesaz]

4 town, 1 mafia, 1 sk.

A mislynch gives 3,1,1 and a next day of 1,1,1 if both kills are different town targets. Town loses in that case and it's just a question of which of mafia or SK wins, right?
Is this one of the rare cases where the best move for town is to NL, to give worst case next day scenario of 2,1,1?

Three scenarios for one kill only: mafia and SK both targeted Monkey, or one party was inactive, or one party no killed.

Not sure about the order that this scenario would be resolved: Monkey blocks A, B kills Monkey. And even if we knew who Monkey's target was, WIFOM would rule because the missing kill could have been a no action to frame.

[davesaz]

I also agree with the AA9 slot as likely scum, would have gone there yesterday if Nero weren't so confident on Massive. The slot fits the activity profile and I didn't see uber town coming from either replacement.

VOTE: AA9

[davesaz]

Why would doing a No Lynch be good?
The worst possible outcome is 1:1:1 and that can still be won because it would be a prisoner's dilemma for the scum factions. BUT, all other outcomes are better. Mind this: unless the mafia and the SK agreed somehow to go for a draw, they should get rid of each other – via lynch or kill – although I don't understand why it is not happening.

'cause they play to win the game? Mafia and sk SHOULD try to shoot at each other tonight. In fact, its a decent possibility that scum know who the sk is and will this kill them tonight to improve their chances of winning. If we end up mislynching today then the game is over for the town.

Whether they try to kill each other tonight or not, if they fail I'm pretty sure the 1-1-1 situation is lost for town no matter what happens.

[davesaz]

That's unclear, rephrase:

If there is a mislynch, and mafia/sk take out different townies, then it's a 1-1-1 which I think is unwinnable for town.

[davesaz]

1:1:1. If town lynched, mafia/sk draw. If mafia lynched, sk kills town and wins. If sk lynched, mafia kills town and wins. Town cannot win a 1:1:1. This is basic mafia.
It is not mylo, because one of mafia or sk could kill the other, or they could both target the same townie.

I've had more time to think about the no lynch strategy. If town has a reasonably good read on one of the scum factions, then lynching is the correct move. Lynching is also better if the probability of scum night killing conftown is high, because it lowers the chance of the kill eliminating a borderline suspect (which would have made the next day's lynch easier). No lynch is the best strategy if town has low confidence in having ID'd scum and there is no conftown to kill.

[davesaz]

I'm pretty comfortable with lynching AA9. Not really decided on the other yet.

[davesaz]

Watching Nero and Sthar not post.

[davesaz]

We'll see what a replacement stirs up, if anything.

[davesaz]

I think the ope setup says 1-shot.

[davesaz]

We should have only 1 mafia and 1 sk left. The setup is rb, 1shot rb, godfather, goon, sk.

[davesaz]

So, we know that Fonz is doing "due diligence" which is good. Nero, what do you plan to do?

[davesaz]

I stayed out of the spoiler thread, and had no idea who was sk.