Open 714: Tit for Tat [Game Over]

[Mathdino]

I don't find that ridiculous
Sheeping is a large aspect of my aneninen scumread

Can you give other examples then

[Mathdino]

Creature and I will die at night in some order in the next couple of days (unless scum thinks they can mislynch me (i.e. enough townies scumread me)). If vig and lynch both fail to hit scum, that's LyLo by D3. NSG is probably the kill after that.

Townbloc obviously needs to be expanded for this to work.

Aneninen is never going to be townblocced, and he's never going to be NK'd IMO. Same goes for people like Jay, or Luca even. mutant can towntell but he hasn't yet (which is admittedly worrying).

Fortunately, vig gives us double the power that scum has. We don't need to hit scum with every shot/lynch but we do need to remove suspects faster than scum can remove non-suspects.

Hence my goal of sorting people into piles ASAP, to set up town okay after tonight. I prefer high-quality discussion over contentious slots. Talking about Creature is too easy. He's town. At the very least, he's never getting lynched.

The slots I'm working on are:
Aneninen
mutant
Gamma
Luca
Pintu

If you notice anything that helps in townclearing them, that would actually be super helpful.

[Mathdino]

PoE is stronger than any other form of analysis IMO. I'm pretty bad for scum to have lategame. And I get killed a lot in open games. I still haven't emptied my bag of tricks

Nah ofc I haven't cleared jmo. I'm just townreading him. He's not gonna get NK'd so yeah he's probably useful to sort. I don't see anything particularly pinging in his ISO though.

[Mathdino]

Re: 5 slots: Dude, if everyone outside those 5 slots is town, I'm a damn scumhunting legend, because it means people inside those 5 slots each have a 60% chance of rolling scum. You just can't claim a 60% accuracy based on an ISO alone. Townhunting works wonders.
And even if I'm wrong and one scum is outside those 5 (which is likely, due to Jay, jmo, NSG), that's still a 40% accuracy rate within those 5 slots, which is significantly better than random.
I get the feeling you think this is unfair. And to be fair to you, you'd think that as either alignment.
To get out of a PoE scumread, you basically argue that I'm townreading scum, or that the other people in my lynchpool are scummier than you.

Re: Creature: Good catch.
You can't activity-tell Creature while complaining about his activity, or while calling him scum early on. You activity-tell him by leaving him to his own devices and seeing if he picks up interest in the game entirely on his own. I realised this about halfway through, and considered asking everyone to stop talking about Creature, but "WOW MATHDINO STOP CONTROLLING THE TOWN", so I didn't.
My thought process around that time was, if Creature is scum after all, he's 100% going to be today's lynch once people realise he's checked out of the game. But it takes a long time to realise he's checked out (usually results in him getting prodded), so I'm really just better off assuming he's town for now until proven otherwise.
Lo and behold, the very next page, he showed up despite being townread and started doing shit.
My read progression on Creature was more tactical than reads-based. Wanted to see what he'd do if people trusted him (which I do, if he's town).

Re: Walls: Ughh you actually want me to do that? That was a "might".

[Mathdino]

ignoring meta (lazy), there's almost definitely some number of scum in {Luca, jmo}

luca can be scum yeah

Math, I don't think you ever explained this. Why made you think there was definitely scum in me and jmo at this point?

Because I thought you were scum and jmo was town lol
I couldn't explain my actual reads cuz I was limiting myself by the sheep NSG test

[Mathdino]

It's important that we settle on a lynch within the next 3 days.

Let's go, guys. Get to voting. If you don't know who to vote for, sheep something.

[Mathdino]

I recommend just not trying to read Creature until you're 90% sure he's scum.

Like, don't even do the "Wait a second is Creature scum?" or "Where's Creature?" because that ruins the tell. He gets lynched one way or another if scum.

[Mathdino]

look i'm just gonna say it

my vig plan was that when we took a wagon to L-1 and got our claim, we'd assign the vig to kill that player and then run up a wagon on someone else and lynch them

the longer it takes for town to consolidate, the harder this is gonna get

NSG i know you hate voting but please vote thanks

@Mod: request prod on jmo, who is not producing game relevant content

let's wagon aneninen already
jmo lurking is NAI, creature, it's not like he's active in speakeasy, it looks like he literally isn't logging in

[Mathdino]

jay trusts my abilities and sheeps me unless he doesn't

idk i mean jay's entire scumgame has historically been "sheep dino as long as he wagons someone who's not me or my scumpartner"

so jay is probably scum if aneninen flips scum but outside of that it's not scummy

we should just lynch aneninen

[Mathdino]

goddamn guys do i have to write a case here

it's fuckin hard to write cases without flips, we really just need flips

[Mathdino]

if you want to be present more, not placing OMGUS votes on 2 players who are clearly not getting lynched today would help muchly

cmon place a spicier vote

we have {Gamma, Aneninen, mutant} in the lynchpool
also i'm betting pintu can be lynched today if i really pushed for that but w/e

[Mathdino]

we have 5 days to come up with a lynch target and a vig target
i would very much prefer outsourcing the vig to the town
that way we can get claims from both

those 3 are just the main wagons, the wagons i think could actually drum up enough support for a lynch

i'm townreading you still FTR

[Mathdino]

jmo could be a power role. I'd rather not have vig slated to kill a PR.

[Mathdino]

the fuck

i'm townreading you so

also the jmo-vig idea is still a very bad idea

[Mathdino]

1054 is pretty convincing
VOTE: Jay

also are you guys dense
the fact that aneninen has been the top wagon for days on end now with literally no one picking up the bait almost ensures that he's scum

we're at the point where we need to double-deadline-lynch

i'm good with Jay-Aneninen

[Mathdino]

Votecount 1.4

jmo16mla(3)

~ northsidegal(49), Creature(80), Gamma Emerald(168)

JaydragonKing(3)

~ Luca Blight(157), Mathdino(215), jmo16mla(53)

mutantdevle(2)

~ Aneninen(41), Pinturicchio(48)

Aneninen(2)

~ Almost50(51), JaydragonKing(80)

Mathdino(1)

~ TheGoldenParadox(38)

Gamma Emerald(1)

~ mutantdevle(71)


Not Voting (0):

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2018-03-13 13:20:00)

[Mathdino]

NSG wtf are you doing with your vote

[Mathdino]

also are you guys dense
the fact that aneninen has been the top wagon for days on end now with literally no one picking up the bait almost ensures that he's scum

what makes you frame it as "nobody picking up the bait" when it seems equally plausible to me that scum could be complacent with that being the default end-of-day wagon?

thought i had reading most recent pages. one second.

not sure what you're suggesting
there are multiple lynch candidates who have avoided the aneninen wagon when they easily could've jumped on to force it to be the default end-of-day wagon
scum should've been sheeping this long ago

i think 1054 is pretty towny and that a jay wagon right now wouldn't really be based on anything solid. like, i agree that he has a point – as far as i know, people have just said that he hasn't contributed much rather than that he's done anything more specifically scummy or that he's done anything that town jay

wouldn't

be doing.

i also think his point about scum being more interesting than town was genuine and a reason for his relative lack of activity.

i hate you for being right

NSG do you just not have scumreads

VOTE: Aneninen

like i need 2 fucking wagons that town can agree on and we can't even reach half of a lynch for any single player
gamma was the only one that passed that threshold and that was ridiculous

wtf are we doing

[Mathdino]

okay guys this is really not okay
i want us to get one out of two of our lynches done within the next 36 hours

Votecount 1.5

Aneninen(4)

~ Almost50(51), JaydragonKing(80), Mathdino(218), Luca Blight(159)

jmo16mla(3)

~ northsidegal(53), Creature(80), Gamma Emerald(168)

mutantdevle(2)

~ Aneninen(41), Pinturicchio(48)

Mathdino(1)

~ TheGoldenParadox(38)

JaydragonKing(1)

~ jmo16mla(57)

Gamma Emerald(1)

~ mutantdevle(71)


Not Voting (0):

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2018-03-13 13:20:00)

@Paradox:

A50 and I are never getting D1 lynched. You know better than to park a vote there with the deadline coming up. You've made your statement, you got your reactions. Move your vote.

@mutant:

bro unless you have a fantastic case on Gamma, that vote is really not useful

@Creats:

I feel like jmo is town. Did you feel differently from his ISO or are you voting for lurking?

@NSG:

are you really going to stick by your "never going to vote anyone unless i want to murder them on the spot" playstyle when we need 2 wagons for claims

@jmo:

NSG's right about Jay, regardless of her alignment. If you're having trouble getting reads, then just sheep your strongest townread.

I feel like this town is too resistant to sheeping, which is ironic considering most of them can't get any reads on half the playerlist.

Edit: thanks luca, updated VC to reflect vote

[Mathdino]

@pintu: i no longer believe that so that would be counterproductive
at the time it was basically that jay acted like he was willing to sheep me but kept avoiding the aneninen wagon

[Mathdino]

Can we just get claims out of both of them?

VOTE: pintu

pretty much skimmed the last page but w/e

[Mathdino]

If we get a lolhammer, vig should shoot the hammerer.

If pintu self-hammers, shoot Aneninen please.

[Mathdino]

You think A50 and I flashwagoned pintu after pushing Aneninen all day?

holy fuck dude

[Mathdino]

Regardless of flip. Scum loves to lolhammer their scumbuddies. Remember JK9++? RedFlavor does

--yes I do

[Mathdino]

1121: The what now tell?

1123: I was trying to cull the bad votes off the vote count. From your POV, jmo was an acceptable and viable wagon. NSG's vote was RVS though and Creature was already scumreading Aneninen.

Also didn't say anything to Anen or Pintu because their votes seem fine from their POVs.

[Mathdino]

@Gamma:

Get off your dummy-dumb lurker wagon please.

[Mathdino]

If he vanishes and is active elsewhere on site, then sure. Doubt he's lying about RL issues though.

[Mathdino]

Finally getting around to mutant devle's wall of "unanswered questions"
38+39 I responded to Math in 202, ok
204 I'm pretty sure I responded to Math's response by telling him I still didn't see it?
209 that was clearly answered by jmo stating it was to get the game going. I should have stated that but I don't really think it's necessary to tie off loose questions.
236 also got answered, I think jmo pointed it out?
249 wasn't actually a question; it was a jab at A50 because I wanted him to not have an excuse to lurk away.
257's response kinda got lost in the wall. However my general response can be seen in how I reacted to the two votes on me from Anen and whoever else voted me that time frame.
270 I'm gonna address this later
271 honestly he already answered in 152, so eh. Didn't note it though so it's a fair cop
283 what the fuck? I'm fairly certain Luca responded. Infact I checked and it's

the next post

. I don't think you actually care about looking for the resolutions, you're just trying to sling mud at me any way you can.
292 wasn't exactly responding to a serious comment so why should I be hounding down an answer? This is a

very questionable

poke as it's not even caring about context of the question at all. And also Mathdino answered so

again

, not caring for the truth, just wants his lynch. Keep on going Manfred.
343 I forgot about that. This is the second question that Jay hasn't answered (270[/post] was the first) and again I'm not finding any issues with your point here, but this also raises concerns about Jay.

@Jay:

why the fuck haven't you been answering my questions?
370 was rhetorical in a sense. The point was to get people to reconsider their reads on jmo, if they did so why should I care how they respond, they're fixing their reads.
378 was me poking Creature for content. If he doesn't respond it's not really my burden to drag him into the thread and beat the answers out of him.
434 I didn't pursue this because I realized my question was stupid, he was already pretty open about it
596 wasn't as much a sorting question as much as me being pissed someone said I was "in my own world". I'd already kinda made up my mind it looked like discrediting.
604 lmfao what a shitty way to end your wall bro. No one responded so I felt like it was clear and everyone was just not bothering to state it specifically.
And for the little closer about how you were "skimming": yeah fuck no, no way you miss a response on post afterward with the way you started this. You're fucking scum. Also I'm gonna do some historical reading cos I remember this same exact push being done on me before and idr which alignment it was. But until then bye bye.
VOTE: mutantdevle
I was having doubts about him but this made me not care about those doubts

please use post tags next time

[Mathdino]

you know, i used to think lack of follow-up was a scumtell

until i realised that i ask all sorts of questions without following up, as town, shortly before people start scumreading me for it

sometimes the answers just aren't interesting tbh

i don't really like interrogation

[Mathdino]

nah i still do it
my playstyle has not changed much in the past few months
it is thus not a good scumtell

[Mathdino]

because we need 2 lynch candidates
1. to actually lynch
2. to vig without fear of hitting a PR

also of note is the fact that scum will almost certainly claim jailkeeper when run up

remember not to cc at the drop of a hat everyone

[Mathdino]

VOTE: Aneninen

[Mathdino]

you really are completely out of the loop dude

re: claims: Scum optimal strategy is to claim jailkeeper as they're being run up so they can get the actual JK to counterclaim.
The fact that I'm saying "HEY GUYS SCUM WILL CLAIM JAILKEEPER" is actually beneficial for us, because it makes it more likely scum will do the suboptimal choice and claim VT (not outing any PRs).

re: vote switch: The whole point is that we run one person up, get a claim, then run another person up, and actually lynch them.
Pintu's getting vigged tonight. I still think he's scum. Now we need another suspect.

[Mathdino]

Can we all agree to hypothetically vig pintu tonight?

I know that if I'm a vig, I'm doing it.

[Mathdino]

Please don't comment on the worth of vigging pintu vs Anen

Speaking as a PR hunter, any further commentary on that makes it more likely scum will figure out who the vig is. Avoid PR spew

Edit: Gamma then wtf do you suggest we do with vig

[Mathdino]

Gamma, the point of outsourcing the vig to the town is that we don't have vigs who go off and
A. Shoot their own vanity scumreads
B. Policy-vig the jailkeeper or backup rolecop

We have a claim from pintu already. He's a VT. It would be incredibly dangerous to shoot someone else at this rate.

Plus, I'm lynching him tomorrow if he's not already dead. We had enough votes to lynch him, and the wagon comp was basically identical to Anen's wagon.

[Mathdino]

But you literally JUST TOLD jk not to counterclaim, so the "suboptimal" strategy, claiming VT, isn't suboptimal anymore. Why couldn't you have waited until after the claim to say this?

Because I didn't want to wait for scum-him to say "I'M A JAILKEEPER GUYS" and watch the real jailkeeper immediately counterclaim.

If scum decides to claim VT, all the better for us. We can just lynch them.

[Mathdino]

please stop this

gamma, look the point regarding pintu is he's basically going to get lynched tomorrow if he's not vigged, regardless of whether or not you townread him

you don't have a good enough towncase on him here

would you prefer the idea of vigging aneninen and lynching pintu

[Mathdino]

the point of removing him is that we're in evens, he's already claimed, and leaving him alive is a lylo liability

we literally already had the votes to hammer him; if there were no vig, he'd be fuckin dead

are you okay with a aneninen vig

[Mathdino]

please stop this

no one is reading this shit

if you have cases on each other present them to the rest of the class

[Mathdino]

I prefer pintu lynch over Anen.

The point is that we have two lynches. We've already "lynched" pintu by agreeing to vig him (hoping that Gamma isn't the vig of course). Now we have a second one, which will be the official lynch.

Vote Anennnn

[Mathdino]

idk i want to townread that

but it's also #badposting

i'm actually starting to get weird feelings about mutant

[Mathdino]

no i'm saying part of me doesn't actually want to run up aneninen

i'm treating pintu as if he's already lynched

[Mathdino]

@pintu: i'll listen to your reads if i'm still alive btw

hope you don't fall into the "fuck the community for D1 lynching me" mindset tbh
the first game i played with hyper-experienced players got me D1 lynched for bullshit reasons
sometimes it's more about charisma than anything else, which can be annoying but things get better

[Mathdino]

Fuck I'm townreading this

God I don't want to fill 20 pages with a back and forth with luca but if this Anen/pintu read is bad then it might actually be scum in {luca, mutant}

Update: I will likely not be able to lock that NSG read given how little time we have

[Mathdino]

@Dino: I thought you said you were townreading her or something earlier?

Not a lock though

Fuck it

I don't want to reward aneninen but

VOTE: mutant

[Mathdino]

PoE
There's gotta be 3 scum somewhere
Can you link your recent scumgames so I can go verify my hypotheses for your tells

[Mathdino]

That'd be cool

[Mathdino]

Paradox confirmed town if mutant is town

[Mathdino]

Uhhh what
Can you explain how this is more than an omgus read

We should vig pintu still

[Mathdino]

oh, no, i was just PoEing
pintu's vote was on mutant at the time, yeah?

Edit: ok got it

Guys, further votes on pintu and further discussion of doing anything other than vigging him is role-indicative for good PR hunters.

Like this shit can easily turn into a gold mine. To some extent I'm sad I'm not scum.

We all need to agree to vig pintu, and find someone else to lynch. If we lynch pintu straight up, town doesn't have agreement on a good vig candidate, and we run the risk of hitting a PR.

[Mathdino]

ok fine
mutant doesn't have enough scum meta for me to differentiate here

VOTE: Aneninen
we can do this

[Mathdino]

do i look like the master of votecounts to you

i didn't even notice pintu voting mutant lol

[Mathdino]

So let's get more votes on aneninen

Also A50 and NSG could still be scum tbh
That meta I wanted isn't gonna come in a while

I request jail keeper protection on the basis that there's a 1/9 chance I'm vig
And if I am a vig I'll find out tonight and just shoot on n2

[Mathdino]

Wat
What about post 1186 do you seriously think is alignment indicative lol
It's literally "try not to feel too bad"
I'm definitely getting that impression you're not really trying anymore

[Mathdino]

Not gonna lie, this lynch feels wrong
But I just don't see other viable lynches right now with 3 days on the deadline
I guess A50 could be scum but we're not d1 lynching him
I'm pretty low on townreads :/

[Mathdino]

What?

A50 is a player I have a good record of sorting given time and flips. I can generally tell which players fall under that category. It has nothing to do with experience. I'd just as quickly say we're not d1 lynching Paradox.

[Mathdino]

I'm stuck. I don't believe I'm in a position to canvas votes on players outside the current lynchpool. I especially don't think going after someone like Luca is really going to help anything. All I know is I play better with flips, and I'm working to do that.

End of the day, I'm willing to straight up sheep Creature on this one in absence of solid reads of my own.

[Mathdino]

I think mutant is town, but whatever.

mutantdevle(3): Aneninen, Gamma, Jay

Looks like a scum counterwagon.

Given that my read on mutant was basically null, that dented my confidence, so back to anen

Creature's jmo vote was made before jmo actually did shit

I await reads on his return

[Mathdino]

i've also seen town-him be fairly wrong
but then there's always surreptitious

do you have any better ideas here though
i guess NSG could be scum (and the test actually worked)
also feels like a wrong D1 lynch but she's barely providing any content so idk what's up with that

[Mathdino]

shit i think i just found a scumtell for NSG

crunching some numbers brb

[Mathdino]

page bottom

update: searching for NSG tells is not going well

[Mathdino]

Votecount 1.7

Aneninen(4)

~ TheGoldenParadox(46), Mathdino(261), Luca Blight(185), Almost50(69)

Pinturicchio(2)

~ northsidegal(60), mutantdevle(100)

mutantdevle(2)

~ Gamma Emerald(199), JaydragonKing(92)

Mathdino(1)

~ Aneninen(49)

jmo16mla(1)

~ Creature(84)

JaydragonKing(1)

~ jmo16mla(61)

Almost50(1)

~ Pinturicchio(72)


Not Voting (0):

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2018-03-13 13:20:00)

[Mathdino]

you do realise a computer program is generating those reads lists, not me

vig should in no universe take the chance of shooting the jailkeeper and/or rolecop

pintu already claimed and he's never getting nightkilled; call it a policy vig but it's kind of a policy vig at this point

also shooting null VTs is great vigplay idk what you're talking about

[Mathdino]

i mean honestly the alternatives to pintu imo are you and jmo

and i'm townreading jmo

[Mathdino]

Someone's sitewide activity dropping off doesn't mean shit
Read his trajectory
Reads like town who wanted to go all tryhard but got busy and started snowballing into not being caught up

[Mathdino]

rolefishing me is pointless

like, as a PR i do everything i can to look like a VT

lack of knowledge of my actual role helps me in tricking scum

regardless
at the end of the day what's killing this game is relative inactivity
tbh i think aneninen/mutant/gamma/pintu wallposting all the time and then insisting on responses to their posts have been a major component of that
so that's reason enough to lynch in that group

Edit: jesus fuck dude i literally just complained about walls

[Mathdino]

paradox your reads are generally sub-random-chance

until you get to a point where you know you can be confident in your D1 reads

sometimes being town means being the town player that's convinced

vigging me is potentially the worst decision that could be made

ESPECIALLY because the vig's job is also to PR hunt, and they have no reason to know or think i'm a VT because i've given no signals either way

[Mathdino]

i mixed up the lynchpool with the wallposters sorry

the wallposters are in fact anen/mutant/gamma

[Mathdino]

paradox i'm obviously going to have less faith in your reads after
1. you tunnel me the entire game and start calling scumteams all over the place
2. reading some of your other towngames
3. blah blah can't talk about it

like what would you rather i do
how can i possibly be pocketing you if you're literally just calling me scum every time i call you town

[Mathdino]

You saying I make wallposts when the only really big post I made was full of spoiler tags is just the cherry of the cake of this game. Saying that the reason this game is mainly to wallposts and not because of your fucking lame 1v1 with Luca to see who has the longer dick is just painful, and the lack of posting of other people could be mainly because of neither wallposts and said 1v1, so could you make any good reads at all, Dino?
P-edit: apology accepted, still thinking the 1v1 was much more determinant

i neither started that nor insisted that anyone do anything more than skim that

every time that happened i actively asked to disengage

but then it became "yo mathdino is scum for dropping the conversation"

like obviously games are much better without 1v1s, i think the content of 1v1s is barely alignment indicative and should largely be skipped

[Mathdino]

@pintu: then luca becomes one of those players that's basically impossible to talk about because every mention of him possibly being scum turns into a nitpicky 1v1
see 1339

like i'm just tired of this day
if i had more time, effort, political capital, and faith in other people to actually be active i might've put luca in today's lynchpool by now given that i'm only townreading him by sheeping other people's reads there
doesn't help anyone

we lost our momentum a long time ago

[Mathdino]

sigh
the vig plan doesn't work if people don't agree to put some ass behind the fact that we basically already fkin lynched pintu
have you noticed that he requested the vig kill until people started townreading his reaction
now that thread is dropped

A50 wanted to vig someone else because he wants pintu lynched
paradox wants to vig me

there are plenty of players wanting to vig other people

the point is this: even if pintu is town, he is going to get mislynched at some point if we leave him alive
this is basically true of anyone that gets run up to L-1 and claims VT
there's just little point in not lynching them once it comes to that unless there's extremely strong reason not to

[Mathdino]

I replied to your case point for point and you dropped it.

Another point Math ignored.

I have given you the opportunity to show exactly how they are predatory rather than genuinely trying to sort people, but you chose to disengage. Others have asked similar questions - I pointed out one Gamma asked me earlier which was would qualify as '

predatory

' by your definition, but again you ignore it.

You just ignore every point I make against you anyway.

I pointed out how groundless this was, which you of course ignored.

you overuse the word misrep

[Mathdino]

If Paradox or Creature claimed VT would you be saying they would have to be lynched at some point? Of course you wouldn't.

creature is just gonna get NK'd

paradox i guess is policyviggable, i wouldn't mind a vig there if he just claimed VT out of nowhere (which would be inherently scummy)

[Mathdino]

If Paradox or Creature claimed VT would you be saying they would have to be lynched at some point? Of course you wouldn't.

creature is just gonna get NK'd

paradox i guess is policyviggable, i wouldn't mind a vig there if he just claimed VT out of nowhere (which would be inherently scummy)

So now you're saying that you wouldn't mind to vig your locktown (as said by you)... I don't really know why the fuck I trusted you

Does it look like he claimed VT out of nowhere
Because that's the entire premise behind this scenario

[Mathdino]

But Pin didn't claim VT out of nowhere...

If Paradox was run to L-1 and claimed VT, would you want him vigged?

yes obviously

[Mathdino]

guys if someone manages to get to L-1 and claims VT
- what's the chance that scum ever thinks "yeah that seems like a good nightkill"
- what's the chance that that person doesn't just become an automatic topic of discussion for every remaining day they're alive

if paradox got run up to L-1 and claimed VT, hell yes i would vig him even if i'm townreading him

[Mathdino]

The thing is, if you were townreading someone, there's no chance he would get to L-1 because "we are not lynching him today guys", so let's cut the hypothetical crap?

i guess that would depend on how much influence i have over the gamestate
the hypothetical point is to drive in the idea that good vig play is to policy shoot anyone that either should have already been lynched or is basically going to get lynched tomorrow anyway
the point of getting 2 claims today is to ensure vig doesn't shoot PR

... But wouldn't you rather Lynch Paradox in that situation?

Why the hell do you keep asking the Vigilante to shoot the VTs? Let the Vig take some risks and make smart plays. Don't make us literally make her shoot someone we don't care enough about to Lynch.

- we have a vig and a lynch; it wouldn't really matter to me which was vigged and which was lynched

- because i have played many games with vigs, and have not ONCE seen a vig make a smart play by shooting their personal scumreads

i have seen vigs shoot power roles
i have seen vigs shoot cop innos
i have seen vigs shoot the most active player on a vanity scumread
i have seen vigs policy shoot a doctor the first chance they got

and oftentimes what happens is the vig becomes insanely obvious by the shot alone

i'm thinking like scum here, thinking "what do i most want town to do?"
this is basically what scum wants:
- Vig shoots their personal scumread, flipping town, rather than someone that the rest of the town scumreads.
- That universal scumread either wastes a day getting lynched or is a constant source of paranoia until endgame.
- Scum can easily find the vig just by NKA, because scum is the only one (besides the vig) who actually knows who killed who.

i always design my strategies around what i would NOT want scum to do
hell i'd argue i'm town by pro-town setup shit alone but that would be pretty cheesy because it's fakable

[Mathdino]

The problem with your strategy is that you are getting claims just for the sake of it, not because a "universal scumread", because the wagons were shit. If you really dislike vig killing his scumreads, then ask the vig to not kill anyone at all on D1

we're in evens

if vig doesn't kill we're objectively at a disadvantage

[Mathdino]

The problem with your strategy is that you are getting claims just for the sake of it, not because a "universal scumread", because the wagons were shit. If you really dislike vig killing his scumreads, then ask the vig to not kill anyone at all on D1

we're in evens

if vig doesn't kill we're objectively at a disadvantage

"Explain the Newbie" time

suppose vig just never kills and we end up at 8p
3 mafia, 5 town
random lynch gives us a 3/8 chance of hitting scum
on the other hand, no-lynch means scum kill a townie, giving us a 3/7 chance of hitting scum, which is slightly greater

when in evens without some method of stopping kills or generating kills, no-lynching is generally the mathematically correct/standard call when there's an even number of players
obviously in this setup we have both the means to stop kills AND generate kills, and both jailkeeper and vig should be working to bring us to odds by doing so

plus if you think about what a vig is
a properly used vig doubles the power of the town by giving us another "lynch"
of course it can also completely fuck over the town because for whatever reason vigs on MS keep fucking shooting power roles
that is why i'm treating it as essentially a second lynch, with claims and everything

[Mathdino]

some interesting facts:

NSG's postrate is almost exactly between her average town postrate and scum postrate

the number of questions she's asked per post far FAR exceeds both her town questionrate and scumquestionrate, although her scum questionrate is generally a little higher

basically NSG is playing severely against meta by spending almost every post asking questions rather than making statements

it's not scum indicative but i've realised that's why i can't get a lock on her

[Mathdino]

But I didn't say vig never killing, I said not killing on D1. Just by speaking your math language, 2 mislynches are more probable on D1 than on D2, including all the info you get with the first lynch and the NK from scum. Vig kills would be better aimed starting at D2

not how it works though

by that logic, lynching on D1 at all is a bad idea because you're more likely to hit scum later on

if town has 2 abilities to remove scum from the game while scum has only 1

town should take as many safe options as they can get

[Mathdino]

While it would be fantastic to formalise vig conditionals, we don't have an easy method of voting for them
Hence the original vig idea

[Mathdino]

Also there is no way I'm confident enough in Anen being scum to agree to death after his, or vice versa
Sell me on Anen being scum from my pov

[Mathdino]

Here's roughly where I'm at:

Town: Paradox, Creature (not here though wtf)
Townlean: Gamma (VCA), jmo (early game)
Nulltown: A50 (appears to be allowing the town to implode), Jay

Nulls:
NSG - Playing against meta and also clearly has this game as her lowest priority.
pintu - Should still be vigged honestly.
Anen - Hard to see motivation in his posts because you can generally expect the same kind of content from him regardless of playstyle.
mutant - Nowhere near enough scum meta for me to begin to figure out how to read this guy.

Scumlean: Luca

I'm kind of on the Anen wagon because it's a wagon. I need flips to do basically anything at this point. Beginning to think we should've just lynched pintu and ended the day when we had the chance; leaving it open who vig is shooting for this long is naturally disruptive.

I'd be down for wagoning Luca still. No, I don't have a case, we're way too far in for me to have a case on anything.

[Mathdino]

I actually really agree with Anen's point about Math manipulating the vig, which is why I feel one of them is scum.

All I wanted was to use the vig as a second lynch.

Do you at least understand why, from my POV and given my experience (largely with players from this game), I would have a little "PTSD" over how MS towns use vigs?

[Mathdino]

Well then, what are you waiting for. Jump on the wagon again, let's lynch Aneninen and if he flips town, the vig shoots Dino. If Aneninen flips scum, we follow the first plan and the vig shoots me.

You being scum is in no way conditional on Anen being scum, and obviously verbalising this plan is a bucket of WIFOM.

Do you believe you're never getting lynched given the circumstances?

[Mathdino]

In the vast majority of MS games, the vig fucks over town harder than it fucks over scum.

As scum, the optimal strategy for me isn't to try to strongarm everyone into following this great idea of outsourcing the vig to democracy (LOLDEMOCRACY), it would be to
1. Not get vigged. It's hilariously easy to town it up D1 as scum when you know who everyone is.
2. Let the vig "decide what's best".
3. Try to shoot a power role (and dear god so many people this game have bled power role).
4. Read through everyone's reads lists on D1 to figure out who the vig is and just shoot the vig on N2.

Every open setup I enter I think to myself "what are the flaws in how town uses this" and "how would I want things to go if I were scum".

How I would want things to go is literally letting things go the way they normally do and shooting PRs because I'm better at doing that than convincing 9 players to do what I want.

[Mathdino]

It's not solely about just vigging VTs all over the place.

Hell, vigs are more likely than random to shoot power roles when left to their own devices, because vigs are shit at PR hunting.

It's about giving the vig input from the town to better inform that decision.

If vigs, left to their own devices, shoot town more often than the lynch does, it's clearly better for town to treat vig like a second lynch. This massively increases the power of the town, making the game half-nightless in a way.

As scum I guarantee my safety by just not being scumread by the vig, figuring out who the vig is, and shooting them first.

[Mathdino]

We can certainly agree to disagree on vig optimal strategy, yeah. But the setup is open; if I say anything provably wrong (or wrong FMPOV) it's obvious to everyone. It would be worse for me as scum to push a general strategy I know is more likely to hurt town, because that would basically be a scumclaim. I spend a lot of time optimising setups.

Point is, my thought process is pretty obvious and kind of predictable from the moment I enter open games. I'm asking you to understand that me pushing this strategy as town was basically an inevitability given my experience.

[Mathdino]

I feel pocketed, A50

Tbh I actually prefer being vigged to being lynched, because then I can blame the one jackass who wrongly scumread me instead of the entire town. I take it as a point of pride that I'm hard to lynch even when I'm town. That reputation has actually helped me develop reads on people.

[Mathdino]

holy shit i just realised NSG has a completed scumgame under her alt
factoring that into calculations

A50 i really need reads from you
somehow all the players i consider sheepable {A50, NSG, Creature} up and disappeared, leaving literally the people i'm willing to lynch

[Mathdino]

Okay yeah. Factoring in that game I somehow missed, I believe NSG's playing her scumgame.

More analysis upon more reading.

Edit: Gamma, I explained that, I think you just disagreed. He reads like town who wanted to go tryhard but then went site-inactive.

A50, I think I actually agree with that.

Please do more work though.

[Mathdino]

I mean for strong vig play look at Real Folk Blues rematch. My first shot was a partial-hipfire based on someone trying to strongarm my shot feeling scummy. After that my shots were always within a specific pool that for the beginning I made myself but after a critical failure I took advice from the masonry in that game. So really we should all probably make a vig pool and vig can only shoot in the one we all decide on.
You okay with this Dino?

I think on a theoretical level it sounds nice? In practice, not at all.

That makes it optimal scum strategy to all include the same player in their lynchpools while differing everywhere else (so it's not obvious they're scum together). 1 player gets an automatic 3 votes. The chance that player gets vigged is incredibly high at that point.

Plus I categorically disagree with vigging people I think could be PR, since I have a mental list of people who I think are PRs this game. I would really REALLY prefer not to have to argue this list to people if, for example, their vigpools consistent 100% of PRs.

To be fair Math that was a misrep of Luca there. And the way you kind of just stop talking about it when Luca mentions this kinda makes it look intentional. I would have thought you'd at least say something about thinking he said you were scum for it.

I don't intentionally misrep people, lol. I say whatever seems to make sense FMPOV. Sometimes that means dramatising things.

The thing is, half the game dislikes it when I take the initiative in dropping the me vs Luca debates, and half dislikes it when I continue them. Had I kept going, I'd have gotten screamed at not only by Luca (who is obviously going to disagree with whatever I have to say), but also pintu and Anen, who were blaming me for the chaotic/toxic gamestate.

Now flash forward pages later and you're suspicious of the fact that I dropped it.

I'M ALWAYS THE ONE THAT DROPS IT. That does not mean a concession, that means "this really doesn't benefit me or anyone except scum to continue this debate".

[Mathdino]

I'm not that familiar with NSG's meta. I've played 1 town and 1 scum game with NSG. In the scum game I protected her N1 as a doc and was mostly town reading her but by N2 I had a gut feeling she was scum which turned out to be correct. In my town game, she replaced in and I was lynched D1 so didn't get too much of a chance to interact. She felt town there though and I didn't have that gut scum feel as I did previously. Math's statement here is either proof that he doesn't know NSG as well as he claims to or that NSG is trying something new this game. I don't have that gut scum feel this game.

wat

I mean I'm getting a guttown feel from her as well this game. I so far have a 100% success rate at reading her alignment. But she's correct that she's improving her scumgame to the point that she's not just going to scream scum when she rolls scum.

My statements are literally me entering in numbers into a spreadsheet and calculating averages. I'm looking at the metric of how often she posts and how often she asks questions.

She's been posting everywhere EXCEPT this thread.

And she's been asking an extraordinarily high number of questions as opposed to giving reads and making pushes.

I find that problematic, and I think that fundamental difference from her towngame (and also her early scumgames) are why I haven't been able to definitively say "YEP THIS IS NSG PLAYING TOWN".

[Mathdino]

It wouldn't have hurt to at least have acknowledged the pretty blatant misrepping you did, Math - that wouldn't have fueled any further argument.

The fact you cut the quotes exactly to fit in with your narrative did look deliberate, though.

You're not going to get some kind of "sorry I was wrong" unless I feel like I actually fucked up in some way.

I'm still interpreting those posts the way I did, even with context.

Every time I talk about you you call it blatant misrepping without acknowledging that the way you come across to others is not the same as your perception of yourself.

There's just no point in continuing this. I'm not playing this game to appease people.

[Mathdino]

A50 can you just give a reads list

[Mathdino]

My working theory is that after NSG was told why she was being townread so much (asking questions all the time), she subconsciously amps that way the fuck up as scum to get people to townread her for that.

There's basically 0 indication she's actually forming reads based on those questions this game though. The fact that there's more questions than posts makes that pretty clear.

Edit: Okay so we're doing this. NSG's gonna be upset when she gets beetlejuices back into the thread yknow.
VOTE: NSG

[Mathdino]

@mutant: You haven't noticed how many times I dropped it precisely because I didn't mention I was dropping it before.

@A50: Can you go read Pick Your Poison and get back to me? I'm trying to figure out how this is consistent.

Like, scum-NSG at least puts some effort into making up reads. Idk why she hasn't this game.

[Mathdino]

Still have 100% record reading A50 as mafia or not mafia. After seeing his motivation, I'm fairly sure he's town here.

[Mathdino]

Like A50 is basically playing exactly how I'd expect him to play in the open queue given this playerlist. NSG is really not.

[Mathdino]

And I agree this A50 wagon feels retaliatory
Pintu telling me I'm scum in basically every post addressed to me is inconsistent with the idea that A50 is pocketing me

Luckily NSG is someone I can actually case

[Mathdino]

Does anyone here legitimately believe that I'm town and A50 is scum?

Because I'm telling you right now that out of anyone in this playerlist, town-me has by FAR the best shot at determining A50's alignment, and I'm saying he's town. If he's not, he's going to be incredibly easy to sort tomorrow.

You guys are utterly failing to understand his progression this game and are essentially proving correct the idea that it's better off to not show up in the thread at all.

The fact that no one sees that A50 and I have a legitimate argument for NSG being weird (and she is in fact posting in every game other than this one, I CHECKED) and that A50 is being explicitly wagoned for it is extremely concerning.

If anyone thinks A50 is scum you're gonna have to make a real nice case for an A50/Mathdino scumteam because you're not going to make a good case for "Mathdino is just fucking wrong about A50 here".

[Mathdino]

Last I checked Almost, you are one of the most confrontational middle aged dudes I know. This? The is non- confrontational.

You acted recklessly as a Tracker in JK9. You acted recklessly in Stack the Deck as a Bodyguard. You clearly have a streak of giving hard readslist and generally making a storm with your presence. This is the most passive I've ever seen you. So I'm getting you are flipping Mafia Rolecop or Backup Jailkeeper with how safe you've been. That's why your trying to live so hard.

Passiveness DOES NOT DESCRIBE A50'S SCUMGAME.

I have seen passive A50 as town. There's reasoning behind it. This is fucking town.

[Mathdino]

Dino. You've been in two games with him along with me and modded the third. This is not Town Almost.

He's actually been getting crappier since we called him out on it too, if you've noticed

The fact that you haven't seen scum-A50 wrecks your argument.

If I say "I can't talk about it without breaking site rules" will that
A. Convince you
B. Motivate you to do your own research
?

[Mathdino]

Oh, so I went from "the best lynch today because you are clearly scum" to "shitty town"? Throw me some shade, sugar!

Making sarcastic statements like this does basically nothing to convince anyone or advance the gamestate.

[Mathdino]

Retaliatory by the same people who wagoned NSG in the first place? Unless you're calling Pin her partner, which is at odds with what occurred earlier.

Jay has previously sheeped me onto his scumpartner, before coming up with bullshit reasoning to jump off and go do something else. A50 is recognising this pattern very clearly. He's not necessarily right, but the fact that that's the first thing that came to mind hugely demonstrates a town POV.

And I don't think pintu is completely inconsistent with NSG-scum, but I'm open to being convinced on that one.

[Mathdino]

"town-me has by FAR the best shot at determining A50's alignment", "I have a legitimate argument for NSG being weird"... GTFO with your MVPness and accept you are wrong for one fucking time, as you were wrong jumping on Aneninen's and my wagon for no single reason at all

I didn't have an argument for Anen-scum or pintu-scum. I was sheeping people I trust because the gamestate wasn't conducive to scumhunting or doing my own casing.

I have good arguments for A50-town, Paradox-town, and NSG-weirdness.

You need to take a step back and realise that your view of the gamestate is extremely coloured by resentment at how this game has progressed. I accept that by not being more proactive (and expecting the easily readable players to do more readable things) I've been a part of that. But for the past 5 pages or so you've made yourself a major part of that.

[Mathdino]

Oh, so I went from "the best lynch today because you are clearly scum" to "shitty town"? Throw me some shade, sugar!

Making sarcastic statements like this does basically nothing to convince anyone or advance the gamestate.

Not voting for obv!scum A50 neither

You want to turn this into a "I'm right" "No I'm right" argument?

Like jesus fuck dude this isn't being clever and this isn't adding anything to the discussion. No one has made a good argument for A50-scum yet.

It also demonstrates a scum framing my past scum behavior, but your not looking for the WIFOM part of that argument, are you Dino?

See, he didn't go and explain everything though. He and I had the same thought (although he's more convinced than I am on that).

If he were scum trying to legit convince everyone you're scum (or that he's so town) he goes and spells it out to more than literally just me. He didn't even properly explain it to me.

[Mathdino]

It looks like there's a lot of faith lost in my reads out of resentment from me voting them.

The following are the only reads I've had this game that were not sheeped from other players.

Almost50 is town. I've said this all game.
Creature is town. This is fucking obvious.
Gamma is scum by the first half of his ISO, but I believe he's town by VCA.
jmo is town.
Luca leans scum.
NSG is fucking weird and playing against meta, and I think my initial scumread might be right.
Paradox is town.

Those are all of my actual reads.

My votes on Anen, pintu, mutant were votes on players that I didn't and still don't admit much ability to sort, and my word on them should obviously not be valued that much. I've admitted I don't know what to do with this set. I can admit when my reads should not be trusted.

But with the above set, they absolutely should be.

[Mathdino]

Dear god this game had so much promise.

[Mathdino]

@Scum: You really thought you were lynching the Vig (or forcing an explicit claim?). GET OUT OF HERE. I was a VT, SUCKERS! It was all planned to lure you into shooting me.

This was fairly clear from the get-go by the way.

The fact that Jay is apparently completely unable to notice when A50 has a plan in mind for directing the scum NK is... well...
If he's town, even more respect lost.
If he's scum, gg I guess, you're getting lynched at some point.

Edit: NO SCREW YOU I ALSO DID NOT WANT TO HANG ANEN AT THE END THERE
WE HAD A LEAD AND YOU IGNORED IT

[Mathdino]

It was a fucking joke. And I'm saying he's pocketing you, the loudest and manipulative town alive. You're Anakin, he's Palpatine. Why is that not enough argument for me believing he's scum?

Because you and Paradox aren't good at recognising pocketing.

[Mathdino]

A50 do me a favour and never self-hammer again.

Multiple players have literally not been in the thread since the very first vote on your wagon.

[Mathdino]

Whatever. You play against meta like you did you get suspected. I'll admit that the possibility of you baiting NK should have been on my mind but I was kinda tunneled on you. Sorry bro.

DO YOU THINK SEVEN TOWN PLAYERS WERE UNABLE TO RECOGNISE THIS

jesus chriiiiiist

that wagon was the most scum motivated shit i've ever seen

[Mathdino]

NSG hasn't posted in 2.5 days btw, while having posted, again, in every single other thread she's a part of.

[Mathdino]

I'm pretty obviously the kill tonight. My request for protection stands btw.

[Mathdino]

Also I want to point out that every single fucking game where A50 and I start townreading each other, one of us gets wasted by scum.

Me/A50 has been over the course of multiple games shown to be a massive danger to scum.

Jay is aware of this, and town-Jay has 0 reason to believe he's right on A50's alignment over me. So yeah, Jay is probably scum for openwolfing here.

Others are obviously less aware of this but scum who don't know me or A50 at all have shot one of us once we start townreading each other. It's easy to get intimidated.

tl;dr 2 or 3 scum on the A50 wagon, we are not lynching off-wagon, and scum will kill people who were off-wagon.

[Mathdino]

It was a fucking joke. And I'm saying he's pocketing you, the loudest and manipulative town alive. You're Anakin, he's Palpatine. Why is that not enough argument for me believing he's scum?

Because you and Paradox aren't good at recognising pocketing.

Because you say so, right?

Because I've pocketed Paradox before and he didn't recognise it at all, and now he thinks that me doing something reasonably different from that is actually pocketing.

And because you're fucking wrong on 2 counts.

If you're interested in improving, you own up to being wrong. If I'm wrong on A50, then yeah, I've learned something. But I'm not wrong here.

[Mathdino]

Behaviour like this is essentially exactly why you're playing badly tbh.

[Mathdino]

Calling pintu/Jay/NSG, outside chance of Luca and jmo.

Edit: pintu what are you planning on saying here if A50 and I both flip town?

[Mathdino]

So what was the benefit of self-hammering there? I was actually considering switching back to NSG, but wanted the chance to analyse A50's reactions first.

Saying there is definitely 2/3 scum on his wagon is lazy BS - his wagon wasn't vastly different to Anen's or Pin's, but for the fact he pathetically self-hammered.

The formation of his wagon was very clearly different from the formation of the Anen and Pintu wagons, both of which were composed of townbloc a50/me/Creature.

[Mathdino]

Yeah Dino just called out a townbloc.

At least Almost didn't die night one again, I guess.

You think NSG and jmo should be townblocced? What?

How do you still have no faith in A50s reads?

[Mathdino]

I also blame A50 but his reads were fucking right and he got wagoned for it so I'm having trouble sympathising with the rest of yall here

[Mathdino]

DID I NOT FUCKING TELL YOU GUYS COME ON

[Mathdino]

i even fucking preempted pintu's claim by saying "all mafia is going to claim jailkeeper" SPECIFICALLY SO WE WOULDNT OUT THE REAL JAILKEEPER

those of you on the A50 wagon can never question my ability to read A50 ever again thanks

[Mathdino]

regrettably i know my role now so that's whatever
this mafia is clearly shit at finding power roles if they shot creature of all people

jailkeeper will continue to protect me until 1 mafia left

scum is in {NSG, Jay, Luca, Anen} in descending order

[Mathdino]

@Jay: don't turn this around on me

creature was obvtown to everyone

town creature almost universally gets shot N1 and he also created the pintu wagon

Edit:
@Gamma: fair
how about just a standard "if you trust my alignment, trust my reads"
i fully accept being scum as a reason for being wrong

[Mathdino]

let's be honest here guys scum is no matter what in the set of people that heavily suggested not shooting pintu

plus by lynching in that set, we don't run the risk of running up the vig

[Mathdino]

my bad, these were the creature posts i was basically sheeping in lynching pintu

pinturicchio feels fake.

Why?

He looks like one of these newbscum that quote a bunch of posts and just answers them.

@pintu: My push on NSG was worthless. It was very explicitly a reaction test. If NSG is town, scum would just know that she's town and would probably come out as town under pressure. Not a wagon they want to be found on. Aneninen is not so easily sortable by pressure.

And yeah, I do think scum jumped on the Gamma wagon at some point. And yeah, I do know I'm one of those votes.

Are you scumreading me, or pointing out that I should be scumreading myself here?

I was pointing out that, by your logic, it would be more reasonable to go for someone who jumped on a wagon than someone whose wagon didn't get momentum because "scum didn't want to vote him". Aneni's case (as pointed out by Aneni himself) has no explanation at all, why would town jump there? Gamma's case, on the other hand, had some good arguments so it would be easier to jump there for scum. I'm not saying you are one of those scums; I'm actually thinking mutant could be scum on that jump and he had to build his case against him AFTER jumping and not BEFORE jumping. BUT, on my point of view, I can't get much information from that, as I am still scumleaning Gamma (not scumreading any more, tho).
So, my point is: could it be a better wagon than Aneni's wagon right now? What is it about Creature and A50 that you trust them so much? If you think scum jumped on the Gamma wagon, shouldn't a mutant wagon have more sense at this point?

Ugh the genericness.

I really need to review Pinturicchio.

Checking VC 1.06 and VC 1.07, Pinturicchio is the only I don't townread that was on Gamma.

I prefer pintu lynch over Anen.

[Mathdino]

Anyone up for a last minute pintu wagon?

i still scumread the way anen talked about the whole math/luca interaction but i compared his iso this game to his iso in his last scumgame and i think they feel pretty different.

fair enough

i feel like i'm also pretty open about when i'm not totally sure about my reads

it's just certain players (like Almost50) that i feel i can strongly read

i fully admit that pintu-scum was not my own read and was essentially copied

anyway i'm compiling quotes from around the time the pintu wagon started, and NSG doesn't feel like a bus there so
VOTE: Jay

[Mathdino]

Anyone up for a last minute pintu wagon?

i still scumread the way anen talked about the whole math/luca interaction but i compared his iso this game to his iso in his last scumgame and i think they feel pretty different.

The things you quoted are basically just theory/playstyle explanation which he wouldn't have to fake as scum anyway.

If we're following Math's plan then Anen should claim, and then we can wagon someone else after.

Okay I'm happy with my vote.

what suddenly made you happy with your vote there?

My vote was going to put Anen at L-2 which I was fine with but then I saw Pintu's vote and saw my vote would put him to L-1 which I was hesitant to do because of a potential hammer - but I decided to vote anyway since any premature hammers would basically be a scum claim. I then looked into Pintu's reason for voting and it just wasn't adding up to me. It felt scummy and I don't think Pintu has ever mentioned a desire to vote Anen and I don't think he's ever scum read him (I might be wrong on that though). At first, it felt like a reason to justify not voting for Anen which made me think Pintu was scum and hence I was further uncomfortable with my vote because scum on a wagon usually means a mislynch. But the more I thought about it the more it felt like a last minute attempt to get on the wagon to bus a declared doomed scum buddy.

I'm not really up for a Pintu wagon since my main basis for now suddenly being suspicious of him is that he's potential buddies with Anen. If Anen were to flip town, I could still consider this vote be due to Pintu's inexperience - An inexperience I can relate to because I remember wanting to be on every lynch that goes through regardless of my read as I thought it was the townie thing to do which I only started dropping on my first game on this site.

I already stated I'm voting Aneninen because I'm following Dino and I've declared myself unable to read Aneninen. I also liked the wagon's composition until you got in here, and thought exactly the same thing you are saying about me: bussing on a declared doomed scum buddy", are you projecting yourself on me for some towncred if Aneninen flips scum?

My vote was going to put Anen at L-2 which I was fine with but then I saw Pintu's vote and saw my vote would put him to L-1 which I was hesitant to do because of a potential hammer - but I decided to vote anyway since any premature hammers would basically be a scum claim. I then looked into Pintu's reason for voting and it just wasn't adding up to me. It felt scummy and I don't think Pintu has ever mentioned a desire to vote Anen and I don't think he's ever scum read him (I might be wrong on that though). At first, it felt like a reason to justify not voting for Anen which made me think Pintu was scum and hence I was further uncomfortable with my vote because scum on a wagon usually means a mislynch. But the more I thought about it the more it felt like a last minute attempt to get on the wagon to bus a declared doomed scum buddy.

I'm not really up for a Pintu wagon since my main basis for now suddenly being suspicious of him is that he's potential buddies with Anen. If Anen were to flip town, I could still consider this vote be due to Pintu's inexperience - An inexperience I can relate to because I remember wanting to be on every lynch that goes through regardless of my read as I thought it was the townie thing to do which I only started dropping on my first game on this site.

let me get this straight – you think pintu's vote was bad and it made you hesitate on keeping your vote there, but then you figured that it was a bus, so you felt good about it still flipping scum. your second paragraph doesn't follow with this. if pintu's vote was scummy initially but not scummy because you figure it's a bus, 1) that still makes pintu scum and 2) why do you just write it off as inexperience at the end instead of in the first place?

like, a scummy vote still makes someone scum even if you think it's scum budding their buddy.

At first I thought you were misinterpreting what I was saying but then I realised you're right and I'm flat out wrong... this is why you don't scum hunt at 3 PM in the morning buzzing with caffeine whilst pulling an all-nighter to catch up on college work.

VOTE: pinturicchio

If pintu is scum then Anen probably is also, but if pintu flips town then Anen could still be scum anyway - not the other way round.

Intent to hammer.

@dino, fine. But tomorrow, no guarantees. I believe that you+A50+pintu is a very probable scumteam here based on rereading and interactions.

I'm not okay with vigging pintu and I will hella oppose that action

getting cold feet on NSG-scum but i'm waiting for her return

it looks like it was gamma that hard-pushed against the pintu vig

i'm townreading gamma though so i'm going to keep compiling quotes

[Mathdino]

Spoiler: people commenting on lynching/vigging pintu or others

Anyone up for a last minute pintu wagon?

i still scumread the way anen talked about the whole math/luca interaction but i compared his iso this game to his iso in his last scumgame and i think they feel pretty different.

I might be able to explain this later on, but this wording feels like intentional distancing meant for me to pick up (and rule out NSG/pintu). I can't explain quite yet.

I already stated I'm voting Aneninen because I'm following Dino and I've declared myself unable to read Aneninen. I also liked the wagon's composition until you got in here, and thought exactly the same thing you are saying about me: bussing on a declared doomed scum buddy", are you projecting yourself on me for some towncred if Aneninen flips scum?

I feel like pintu might've quickly recognised Jay's scum strategy of "follow Dino when he's wrong". This heavily implies Aneninen is town by association. pintu was primarily willing to sheep me on Anen.

VOTE: pinturicchio

If pintu is scum then Anen probably is also, but if pintu flips town then Anen could still be scum anyway - not the other way round.

This is pretty bad and is kind of just wrong..

@dino, fine. But tomorrow, no guarantees. I believe that you+A50+pintu is a very probable scumteam here based on rereading and interactions.

This is also bad. pintu scumflip is really making me question my Paradox townread.

I'm not okay with vigging pintu and I will hella oppose that action

First person to suggest not vigging pintu. Still feeling town by VCA.

This is Almost's ego finally reaching critical mass. I knew he wouldn't stay silent for too long, especially after he let Dino build it up to be shot Night one by the mafia instead of him.

Pintu, you also have to realize the Vigilante DOES have a mind of their own too. They may very well shoot someone elsa.

Classic example of Jay openwolfing. I've seen this kind of play in Stack the Deck, buddying up to town PRs when it suits him..

A50, why do you want me vigged just because Pintu suddenly got off my wagon once it gained traction, has it not occurred to you that he might have jumped off because he didn't want to be part of a mislynch? Of course, from your perspective, you'd probably need my flip to confirm that. So, at the very least, my flip would incriminate Pintu fully. But honestly, I don't think we need my flip to see that Pintu is scum.

Btw @Gamma, would you reevaluate your town read on Pintu if I was to flip town?

Possible bussing I guess? Seems like it'd be a weird play. Not sure here.

Fair enough but surely then you'd want to push me to L-1 to see if I'm a PR so that a potential vig shot on me isn't blindly risky?

This tells me already that you aren't a PR by response alone, by the way.

I really think the Vigilante being forced to shoot Pintu even when appearantly some more of us are townreading him is a horrible idea when there are better options as hand.

dear god this is scum in so many ways

We've all gone into quite a lot of detail about what the Vigilante should do, and that's fine... But we really should look at the benefits of leaving Pintu alive to shoot someone elsa night one. I really hope it's not the case, but the Vigilante could only get one shot if he's NKed tonight. I'd prefer if they have a valuable shot then a null-town Vanilla Townie slot.

scum trying to save pintu
he doesn't even have an alternative option in mind
it's just HEY MAYBE VIG SHOULD DO WHAT THEY FEEL IS BEST AMIRITE GUYS

Now let me think what I can do. I fricking want to join this mutant wagon, but I don't b/c I'm not confident in him. A dino or A50 lynch is not going anywhere, even though they're quite obviously scum manipulating town. I have no idea how you guys are this blind to see it but w/e. I don't want to votepark him again because look where that went last time so I'm going to put in a humble request, because I'm sure he's not PR and I'm almost certain he's scum:

@vig: kill dino.

VOTE: mutant because there's like three and a half days left and the other wagons that have any support I'm p sure they're town.
See this is why playing town is so f*cking hard, because not only do you have to find the scum, you have to convince the f*cking other town players that you've found the scum.

a grabbag of waffling, LAMISTing, and counter-control of the vig to shoot me
also
1. why the fuck is he PR hunting me
2. why the fuck is he PR hunting me at a time when i said multiple times i didn't know my own role

Do not vig pintu, it's a bad idea, he's town. Anen is likely town. I'm not getting behind an anen lynch today, and I certainly oppose it.

ogod
paradox townread nullified

Your also still the only one to entertain the idea of shooting someone besides Pintu, Luca. Well, that I can actually take seriously. I want us to suggest an alternative for the vigilante to shoot.

jay is still scum here
wants other people to do his work for him

2: I'm helping the Vigilante have a valid reason so she can shoot whoever she wants and not have to be shit on by you, Dino.

Why the hell do you keep asking the Vigilante to shoot the VTs? Let the Vig take some risks and make smart plays. Don't make us literally make her shoot someone we don't care enough about to Lynch.

hooooo boy

I'm currently thinking:

vig Anen, leave Pin alive, lynch either Mutant or jmo.

suddenly agrees with leaving pintu alive
on the bright side luca is aware of this and was in line with me in townreading pintu's reaction
pintu's whole "GO AHEAD AND VIG ME" was pretty obviously a desperate play and i think luca was just one of the people caught in it

Alternatively, there's another explanation.
Pintu is VT for real and the scum want the Vig remove him. Then the scum can perform a more valuable Nightkill and they're safe from the Vig-shot too.

For your information: later on the same page Mathdino's trying to manipulate the Vig in a way which favours him. I don't think that would make sense from town-him. At this point I seriously consider self-hammering, because at least that would not be two birds with one stone for the scum.

potentially bad but anen is town by interactions i guess?

What if we lynch dino, then if he's town, vig anen, if he's scum, vig mutant or jmo.

paradox is not scum with aneninen

I'm really feeling one of Math/Anen are scum - if Anen flipped green I'd like Math vigged.

fucking lol this is 2 greenflips

the fck lynch this and vig dino please

unless I'm the only one that has been seeing this garbage scum

desperation

Yeah, No. The vigilante is shooting whoever the hell they think is more scummy. Clearly democracy isn't going to work out. If they shoot me, fine. If they shoot Pintu, fine. If they shoot Dino, fine. If they shoot ANYONE, fine.

yet more openwolfing

right so jay is clearly scum
paradox townread is nullified but he's not scum with aneninen
aneninen, luca, and NSG i guess can be townish for now

[Mathdino]

btw i'm also willing to bet that jay is our mafia rolecop

he's actively PR hunting and also taunted us with the A50 "scumflip"

classic jay thing to do as scum, breadcrumbing his actual scum role

[Mathdino]

then let's do it

gamma's vote is on loan to me, luca agrees, paradox owes me a vote

that's L-1 by my count let's go

[Mathdino]

i wanna watch jay fakeclaim power role tbh

[Mathdino]

Furthermore, there is also the WIFOM that scum killed him because his reads are terrible despite being known as a player with strong reads to lead us astray.

This happens less often than you might think
People don't usually flip around their reads for the dead

Anyway don't forget A50 who's had tons of experience with NSG and Jay

[Mathdino]

Hmmmm, theory time.

Do we want to direct the vig again?

Since we're in odds, an extra death at night is theoretically pretty bad for town and puts us in LyLo if we're wrong about both our scumreads. On the other hand, if scum fails to catch the vig (which, let's be honest, they'll probably easily find the vig tonight thanks to yesterday's shitshow), we could actually direct yet another vig tomorrow to put us back in odds.

Clearly Jay dies no matter what, but do we have any backup options?

[Mathdino]

It's because you're actually a power role, right?

[Mathdino]

My read on NSG yesterday was independent of my read on pintu. Tbh I kind of expect everyone to flip town, so I was kinda reading NSG on the presumption that pintu had already been lynched (and flipped town).

In light of the flip (which A50 also didn't expect), I'm not comfortable with her in today's lynchpool for now.

[Mathdino]

This is a bit of reverse engineered logic so bear with me. When I designed my Large Normal to start I had two ideas I sorta rolled into one: the Willbooster idea and the Vig 18p idea. The Vig 18p idea was actually based on this exact setup, but with a few more roles to sorta sweeten the pot I guess. The reason why I picked 18 players as the number was because with vig there should generally be 3 deaths a cycle, thus bringing it eventually to 3p lylo potentially. I took that idea from this setup because I saw the same process in play here just with less overall numbers. My point is vig should not be holstering because I feel the setup is based around them shooting each and every night.

I think this is fair, but also keep in mind most setups are based around not lynching scum on D1 (and let's be honest, pintu was basically lynched, not vigged).

Clearly if we get a counterclaim situation, vig is our backup plan to shoot scum if we get the coinflip wrong.

I'm toying with this idea: We should be lynching today in the set of people who didn't want the vig to shoot pintu, as those people had shittons of scum motivation and are pretty clearly not the vig.

Why not use the vig to shoot people who WERE okay with vig shooting pintu, and acknowledge that since the vig isn't gonna just shoot themselves, there's less danger of hitting a power role?

That would mean shooting in {NSG, mutant}, with the acknowledgement that if one of them actually is the vig, they should obviously just act like they're VT potentially getting shot.

Edit: @mutant: I want to lynch Jay and vig someone else. We should do our best to hit scum today I think, because that gives jailkeeper the opportunity to play offence (scumhunting) rather than defence (nightkillhunting).

[Mathdino]

You know, the best thing you could be doing for town right now is letting go of your "let Dino control my vote when he's right" (which you completely ignored yesterday when I was screaming A50 was town) and actually scumhunting, so we have material if you flip town.

[Mathdino]

Dude it's been 5 days, your vote is still a possible bus, and you provided basically 0 reads over the course of yesterday.

Convince us you shouldn't just get policyvigged here.

[Mathdino]

Anyone up for a last minute pintu wagon?

Were you aware as of writing this post that this wording would ping me? I feel like you should know what I'm talking about.

[Mathdino]

hey aneninen who's the scum on the a50 wagon
was there scum at all on the pintu wagon
who's the scum on your wagon

do you now have an ounce of faith in my reads and my "manipulation"

o yeah and who we lynchin'

[Mathdino]

guys keep in mind that scum don't actually know who the vig is

please stop saying things that could spew whether or not you're the vig

[Mathdino]

Dino, Gamma, Luca, and Paradox joined in.

YOOOO I WAS HARD DEFENDING A50

[Mathdino]

jay you're not even voting anyone wtf

you should be the one giving us a better option

[Mathdino]

Maybe you'll realise that FMPOV, everything you've done all day has been self-defence rather than actual scumhunting?

[Mathdino]

this mafia is clearly shit at finding power roles if they shot creature of all people

Alternatively, they thought they had been in no danger and wanted to perform a non-informative Nightkill. (?)

Creature was super obv-VT. But yeah, he was shot for being obvtown. Thinking they were in no danger would've been silly when pintu was already half-lynched.

jailkeeper will continue to protect me until 1 mafia left

Why?

Because last night's NK was obviously gonna be me or Creature due to correct reads and Almost50 locktowning us both. Tonight it's likely to be me. I get stronger as a player as the game goes on, and I was already on one scum lynch.
When there's 1 mafia left, the jailkeeper can just play offence though and just try to jail the one scum remaining.

scum is in {NSG, Jay, Luca, Anen} in descending order

Can you explain that? Also, why I'm not in the Top 3?

NSG is a lurksack playing strongly against town meta, who made no waves yesterday and potentially bussed pintu to unexpected success (returning to the shadows when the town wagoned other people all on their own).
Jay was just fucking openwolfing yesterday through and through, with:
- Open PR speculation
- Displaying a high willingness to sheep me yet not sheeping me when it counted (A50)
- Arguing that vig shouldn't shoot pintu despite being on the pintu wagon
- Scumreading A50 for godawful reasons
Luca is just confbias. When I get one scum right, it's usually because my early reads are good, and Luca was my early scumread.
My scumread on you is still just sheeped from others, combined with your blow up in the second half of D1 and reversing your read on me to defend pintu.

let's be honest here guys scum is no matter what in the set of people that heavily suggested not shooting pintu

Are you talking about the Vig-shot alone?
Because there were a few players townreading him. Including me.

Doesn't matter. Vigging him was the correct move regardless of personal townreads on him.
Otherwise I don't know what you're talking about. I'm saying that there is 100% scum in the group of people who argued against vigging pintu. Both scum? Not sure. But at least one.

[Mathdino]

how were you a player in stack the deck yet still believe jay is town by play in this situation

[Mathdino]

he wasn't losing back then though

none of his scumteam were ever in danger thanks to N_M's meta and montosh's lurking

[Mathdino]

NSG, please explain your perspective on this game from the point you checked out.

It seems like you're just glossing over the fact that you straight up weren't here for 3 days while active in

literally every other game

, and can thus somewhat be held responsible for the total lack of town cohesion going into the night by not being here to stabilise things.

[Mathdino]

While I definitely would not want to run up mutant today, I would be a strong advocate for vigging him tonight unless anyone seriously objects.

Edit: Okay but you weren't posting even before the A50 wagon. Like I was asking you questions and shit (nonapplicable now).

[Mathdino]

...were you reading the thread?

Were you reading when people were dropping you down their reads lists the longer you were inactive? You usually get pretty annoyed at that shit.

Were you reading when I did that huge metadive on you?

[Mathdino]

I'm looking into how to get full wagon data from the votecount scrubber. Don't work too hard.

[Mathdino]

Setting up the wagon data thing.

Spoiler: VoteCount Settings

priorVCNumber=0
url=viewtopic.php?f=51&t=75223
playerList=Mathdino,JaydragonKing,Almost50,Luca Blight,northsidegal{nsg},Creature,Pinturicchio,Aneninen,Gamma Emerald,TheGoldenParadox,jmo16mla,mutantdevle
replacementList=
moderatorNames=RedFlavor
dayStartNumbers=0,1556
cleanDay=true
deadline=2018-03-26 21:00:00 3.00
deadList=Creature-1,Pinturicchio-1
voteOverrides=

Code: Select all

[spoiler=Day 1][/spoiler][spoiler=Day 2][/spoiler]

[Mathdino]

Votecount 2.1

JaydragonKing(3)

~ Mathdino(33), Luca Blight(8), Gamma Emerald(7)

Not Voting (6): JaydragonKing(17), northsidegal(19), Aneninen(3), TheGoldenParadox(3), jmo16mla(4), mutantdevle(7)

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2018-03-26 21:00:00)

It worked fine.

[Mathdino]

WAGONS(Sort By: Alphabetical Data Type: Simple LSort: On)

Note from vote counter. These votes include any vote on or off that impacted said wagon.

Spoiler: Day 1

Almost50 (1)

~

Pinturicchio

1210

Aneninen (1)

~

Mathdino

17

Aneninen (1)

~

JaydragonKing

148

Aneninen (1)

~

Gamma Emerald

309(361)

Aneninen (1)

~

Almost50

616(1058)

Aneninen (1)

~

Pinturicchio

1090(1115)

Aneninen (1)

~

TheGoldenParadox

1176(1210)

Creature (1)

~

Aneninen

16

Creature (1)

~

jmo16mla

85(260)

Creature (1)

~

Gamma Emerald

382

Creature (1)

~

JaydragonKing

387(590)

Gamma Emerald (1)

~

Pinturicchio

22

Gamma Emerald (1)

~

Aneninen

261

Gamma Emerald (1)

~

jmo16mla

262(446)

Gamma Emerald (1)

~

mutantdevle

657(1068)

JaydragonKing (1)

~

northsidegal

9

JaydragonKing (1)

~

Luca Blight

25(94)

JaydragonKing (1)

~

jmo16mla

1068(1082)

jmo16mla (1)

~

Gamma Emerald

15

jmo16mla (1)

~

northsidegal

94

jmo16mla (1)

~

Creature

1009(1129)

Luca Blight (1)

~

mutantdevle

10

Luca Blight (1)

~

jmo16mla

65

Luca Blight (1)

~

Mathdino

166

Luca Blight (1)

~

Gamma Emerald

260(273)

Luca Blight (1)

~

JaydragonKing

995

Mathdino (1)

~

Luca Blight

159

Mathdino (1)

~

JaydragonKing

738

Mathdino (1)

~

TheGoldenParadox

743(995)

Mathdino (1)

~

Aneninen

1270

mutantdevle (1)

~

mutantdevle

11

mutantdevle (1)

~

JaydragonKing

33

mutantdevle (1)

~

Pinturicchio

264

mutantdevle (1)

~

Aneninen

689

northsidegal (1)

~

Mathdino

12

northsidegal (1)

~

Aneninen

184

northsidegal (1)

~

Creature

193(261)

northsidegal (1)

~

JaydragonKing

1445

Pinturicchio (1)

~

Almost50

589

Pinturicchio (1)

~

northsidegal

1101

Almost50 (2)

~

Pinturicchio, JaydragonKing

1474

Aneninen (2)

~

JaydragonKing, mutantdevle

167

Aneninen (2)

~

JaydragonKing, Gamma Emerald

309

Aneninen (2)

~

Gamma Emerald, Creature

594

Aneninen (2)

~

Creature, Almost50

616(668)

Aneninen (2)

~

Almost50, Mathdino

801(1009)

Aneninen (2)

~

Almost50, JaydragonKing

1061

Aneninen (2)

~

JaydragonKing, Pinturicchio

1090(1114)

Aneninen (2)

~

Pinturicchio, Mathdino

1140

Aneninen (2)

~

Pinturicchio, TheGoldenParadox

1176(1193)

Aneninen (2)

~

TheGoldenParadox, Mathdino

1235

Aneninen (2)

~

Gamma Emerald, Pinturicchio

1328(1455)

Creature (2)

~

Aneninen, Gamma Emerald

18

Creature (2)

~

Gamma Emerald, jmo16mla

85(184)

Creature (2)

~

Gamma Emerald, JaydragonKing

387

Gamma Emerald (2)

~

Aneninen, jmo16mla

262

Gamma Emerald (2)

~

jmo16mla, Pinturicchio

593

Gamma Emerald (2)

~

jmo16mla, mutantdevle

657(824)

JaydragonKing (2)

~

northsidegal, Luca Blight

25

JaydragonKing (2)

~

Luca Blight, Mathdino

1058

JaydragonKing (2)

~

Luca Blight, jmo16mla

1068(1074)

jmo16mla (2)

~

northsidegal, Mathdino

98

jmo16mla (2)

~

northsidegal, TheGoldenParadox

105(166)

jmo16mla (2)

~

northsidegal, Creature

1009

jmo16mla (2)

~

Creature, Gamma Emerald

1010(1101)

Luca Blight (2)

~

Mathdino, Gamma Emerald

260

Mathdino (2)

~

Luca Blight, TheGoldenParadox

435

Mathdino (2)

~

JaydragonKing, TheGoldenParadox

743

Mathdino (2)

~

Aneninen, TheGoldenParadox

1324

mutantdevle (2)

~

Aneninen, Gamma Emerald

704

mutantdevle (2)

~

Aneninen, Pinturicchio

1012

mutantdevle (2)

~

Gamma Emerald, JaydragonKing

1195(1270)

mutantdevle (2)

~

JaydragonKing, TheGoldenParadox

1317

northsidegal (2)

~

Aneninen, Creature

193

northsidegal (2)

~

Creature, Mathdino

338

northsidegal (2)

~

JaydragonKing, Almost50

1454

northsidegal (2)

~

Almost50, Mathdino

1455(1475)

Pinturicchio (2)

~

northsidegal, mutantdevle

1110

Almost50 (3)

~

Pinturicchio, JaydragonKing, Luca Blight

1475

Aneninen (3)

~

Gamma Emerald, Creature, Almost50

616

Aneninen (3)

~

Creature, Almost50, Mathdino

801

Aneninen (3)

~

Almost50, JaydragonKing, Mathdino

1074

Aneninen (3)

~

Almost50, JaydragonKing, Pinturicchio

1090(1112)

Aneninen (3)

~

Pinturicchio, Mathdino, TheGoldenParadox

1176

Aneninen (3)

~

TheGoldenParadox, Mathdino, Luca Blight

1242

Aneninen (3)

~

Mathdino, Gamma Emerald, Pinturicchio

1328(1454)

Creature (3)

~

Aneninen, Gamma Emerald, jmo16mla

20

Creature (3)

~

Gamma Emerald, JaydragonKing, Pinturicchio

392

Creature (3)

~

Gamma Emerald, JaydragonKing, mutantdevle

399

Gamma Emerald (3)

~

jmo16mla, Pinturicchio, Mathdino

598

Gamma Emerald (3)

~

jmo16mla, Pinturicchio, mutantdevle

657(801)

JaydragonKing (3)

~

Luca Blight, Mathdino, jmo16mla

1068

jmo16mla (3)

~

northsidegal, Mathdino, TheGoldenParadox

105

jmo16mla (3)

~

northsidegal, Creature, Gamma Emerald

1010

Mathdino (3)

~

JaydragonKing, TheGoldenParadox, Luca Blight

932

mutantdevle (3)

~

Aneninen, Gamma Emerald, Mathdino

1193

mutantdevle (3)

~

Aneninen, Gamma Emerald, JaydragonKing

1195(1235)

northsidegal (3)

~

Creature, Mathdino, TheGoldenParadox

346

northsidegal (3)

~

JaydragonKing, Almost50, Mathdino

1455

northsidegal (3)

~

Almost50, Mathdino, Luca Blight

1460(1474)

Pinturicchio (3)

~

northsidegal, mutantdevle, Luca Blight

1111

Pinturicchio (3)

~

northsidegal, mutantdevle, Almost50

1211(1242)

Almost50 (4)

~

Pinturicchio, JaydragonKing, Luca Blight, mutantdevle

1481

Aneninen (4)

~

Almost50, JaydragonKing, Mathdino, Luca Blight

1082

Aneninen (4)

~

Almost50, JaydragonKing, Mathdino, Pinturicchio

1090(1111)

Aneninen (4)

~

TheGoldenParadox, Mathdino, Luca Blight, Almost50

1250

Aneninen (4)

~

Mathdino, Luca Blight, Almost50, Gamma Emerald

1304(1317)

Aneninen (4)

~

Mathdino, Almost50, Gamma Emerald, Pinturicchio

1328(1445)

Gamma Emerald (4)

~

jmo16mla, Pinturicchio, Mathdino, TheGoldenParadox

610

Gamma Emerald (4)

~

jmo16mla, Pinturicchio, Mathdino, mutantdevle

657(743)

jmo16mla (4)

~

northsidegal, Mathdino, TheGoldenParadox, Luca Blight

108

jmo16mla (4)

~

northsidegal, Creature, Gamma Emerald, JaydragonKing

1045

Mathdino (4)

~

JaydragonKing, TheGoldenParadox, Luca Blight, Gamma Emerald

942

mutantdevle (4)

~

Aneninen, Gamma Emerald, Mathdino, Almost50

1194

mutantdevle (4)

~

Aneninen, Gamma Emerald, Mathdino, JaydragonKing

1195(1211)

northsidegal (4)

~

Creature, Mathdino, TheGoldenParadox, JaydragonKing

361

northsidegal (4)

~

JaydragonKing, Almost50, Mathdino, Luca Blight

1460

Pinturicchio (4)

~

northsidegal, mutantdevle, Luca Blight, Mathdino

1112

Pinturicchio (4)

~

northsidegal, mutantdevle, Luca Blight, JaydragonKing

1115(1194)

Pinturicchio (4)

~

northsidegal, mutantdevle, Luca Blight, Almost50

1211

Almost50 (5)

~

Pinturicchio, JaydragonKing, Luca Blight, mutantdevle, TheGoldenParadox

1485

Aneninen (5)

~

Almost50, JaydragonKing, Mathdino, Luca Blight, Pinturicchio

1090

Aneninen (5)

~

TheGoldenParadox, Mathdino, Luca Blight, Almost50, Gamma Emerald

1304

Aneninen (5)

~

Mathdino, Luca Blight, Almost50, Gamma Emerald, Pinturicchio

1328

Aneninen (5)

~

Mathdino, Almost50, Gamma Emerald, Pinturicchio, JaydragonKing

1352(1392)

Gamma Emerald (5)

~

jmo16mla, Pinturicchio, Mathdino, TheGoldenParadox, mutantdevle

657

mutantdevle (5)

~

Aneninen, Gamma Emerald, Mathdino, Almost50, JaydragonKing

1195

Pinturicchio (5)

~

northsidegal, mutantdevle, Luca Blight, Mathdino, Almost50

1114

Pinturicchio (5)

~

northsidegal, mutantdevle, Luca Blight, Almost50, JaydragonKing

1115(1140)

Almost50 (6)

~

Pinturicchio, JaydragonKing, Luca Blight, mutantdevle, TheGoldenParadox, Gamma Emerald

1513

Aneninen (6)

~

Almost50, JaydragonKing, Mathdino, Luca Blight, Pinturicchio, mutantdevle

1091

Aneninen (6)

~

Mathdino, Luca Blight, Almost50, Gamma Emerald, Pinturicchio, JaydragonKing

1352

Gamma Emerald (6)

~

jmo16mla, Pinturicchio, Mathdino, TheGoldenParadox, mutantdevle, Luca Blight

660

Pinturicchio (6)

~

northsidegal, mutantdevle, Luca Blight, Mathdino, Almost50, JaydragonKing

1115

Almost50 (7)

~

Pinturicchio, JaydragonKing, Luca Blight, mutantdevle, TheGoldenParadox, Gamma Emerald, Almost50

1517

Spoiler: Day 2

JaydragonKing (1)

~

Mathdino

1571

JaydragonKing (2)

~

Mathdino, Luca Blight

1587

JaydragonKing (3)

~

Mathdino, Luca Blight, Gamma Emerald

1655

[Mathdino]

jmo16mla (4) ~ northsidegal, Mathdino, TheGoldenParadox, Luca Blight
jmo16mla (4) ~ northsidegal, Creature, Gamma Emerald, JaydragonKing

RVS jmo wagon next to the policy jmo wagon.

Mathdino (4) ~ JaydragonKing, TheGoldenParadox, Luca Blight, Gamma Emerald

Everyone ballsy enough to vote me.

northsidegal (4) ~ Creature, Mathdino, TheGoldenParadox, JaydragonKing
northsidegal (4) ~ JaydragonKing, Almost50, Mathdino, Luca Blight

Early pressure wagon next to the lategame lurker wagon.

Gamma Emerald (6) ~ jmo16mla, Pinturicchio, Mathdino, TheGoldenParadox, mutantdevle, Luca Blight

The Gamma wagon, now confirmed to be partially scum motivated.

Pinturicchio (6) ~ northsidegal, mutantdevle, Luca Blight, Mathdino, Almost50, JaydragonKing

The Pintu "lynch"wagon, with TheGoldenParadox's intent to hammer.

Aneninen (5) ~ TheGoldenParadox, Mathdino, Luca Blight, Almost50, Gamma Emerald
Aneninen (6) ~ Almost50, JaydragonKing, Mathdino, Luca Blight, Pinturicchio, mutantdevle
Aneninen (6) ~ Mathdino, Luca Blight, Almost50, Gamma Emerald, Pinturicchio, JaydragonKing

The many forms of the Aneninen wagon. All players who were on it are:
TheGoldenParadox, Mathdino, Luca Blight, Almost50, Gamma Emerald, JaydragonKing, Pinturicchio, mutantdevle.

mutantdevle (5) ~ Aneninen, Gamma Emerald, Mathdino, Almost50, JaydragonKing

mutant counterwagon.

Almost50 (6) ~ Pinturicchio, JaydragonKing, Luca Blight, mutantdevle, TheGoldenParadox, Gamma Emerald

Shitshow of a lynch wagon.

Go to town, VCA enthusiasts.

[Mathdino]

Oh hey that intent finally forces me to claim. Wonderful.

I've kinda tuned them out as well and have been posting non-game related stuff to get noticed and see if they'd jump for my throat so I could do something this game, but they are in their own world.

Fake

-claiming

Backup

Jailkeeper by the way.

Did you breadcrumb this before 735?

If we didn't have one scum dead I'd say it'd be too dangerous to counterclaim, but in this case I'm actually open to ccs.

I don't counterclaim.

VOTE: mutantdevle
on NSG's reasoning.

[Mathdino]

I feel like shit for requesting a counterclaim. Jay breadcrumbing so damn late (after I already noted scum optimal strategy is claiming jailkeeper) was a major tell.

RIP Gamma, hope he finds the scum.

Are we good with vigging mutant and jailing NSG?

[Mathdino]

btw since after this lynch it's one scum remaining who should I target tonight? I'm leaning mutantdevle, but if I change my mind I will state such in clear terms.

I mean unless NSG is literally the vig (which is honestly entirely possible but in which case fucking lol), I'm feeling a mutant shot and a NSG jail on the basis that I'd prefer to have NSG around for endgame.

Take all the time you need. Don't let Jay get to L-1 because he'll self-hammer. Gamma should be the L-1 vote.

UNVOTE:

[Mathdino]

@NSG: I expected a better answer for why you avoided this game, and you're playing against your town meta hard.

[Mathdino]

How about this?

HURT: mutantdevle
HEAL: northsidegal

Use the "hurt" tags for the vig, and use the "heal" tags for the jailkeeper.

[Mathdino]

Was honestly reading Dino as the Jailkeeper fake asking people to Jail him, and when I saw he wasn't counterclaiming, I knew he'd let me take the scum shot. Didn't think someone elsa was the Jailkeeper, let alone wouldn't just let me take the scum bullet for them.

I fully expect Paradox to scumread me based on this "intentional distancing" here

[Mathdino]

@NSG: I expected a better answer for why you avoided this game, and you're playing against your town meta hard.

Weaksauce. have you noticed how i'm playing against my scum meta by being on the mark about two scum so far when i don't think i've ever even voted a scumbuddy before?

I've also read through your mafia PTs and remembered that you explicitly said you'd bus when it made sense to and when your townself would be scumreading people, and pintu was definitely scummy. You were the first vote on his wagon and as such you couldn't have expected it to take off as much as it did, and you weren't around to sort the chaos later on.

Edit: Use the hurt/heal tags!
Playing with confirmed scum around is fun, I have no interest in rushing the day.

[Mathdino]

HEAL: Luca Blight

[Mathdino]

like do you remember the point rc was making in be yourself about the lie detect being awful on him? that's how i feel right now. there's literally no reason for it to be on me.

You know, saying "I feel like playing like RC right now" is probably the easiest way to get me to policy lynch you over confirmed scum

[Mathdino]

Well let's all just humor me and go under the assumption I do just flip Vanilla Townie, okay?

We'll need to find the two scum who have infiltrated us and exterminate them. I can rule out Gamma now, and probably Dino, so I'll start looking into Luca. That seems like a fine discussion point.

Why should we?
If you do though don't expect me to telegraph my action, as scum can likely just send the other to kill me. I will never target the vig target however.

Please stop talking to confscum, lol.

Wanna go through the wagon lists to see if we can find our third?

[Mathdino]

NO UNVOTE NOW JESUS CHRIST

HE IS GOING TO SELF HAMMER

[Mathdino]

PARADOX PLEASE STOP BEING A VI

[Mathdino]

HURT: Paradox
HEAL: mutantdevle

[Mathdino]

Just pointing out, we don't actually have to hunt the rolecop necessarily. Once we kill either of the last 2 scum they practically lose the role

(unless they are so stupid they'd rather role check someone instead of killing)

. But, in Jay's case, I guess this works as an argument they are scum.

is it silly to take it as a scum point against mutant that he knows this so readily? i went to go check the rules when i read this, and it only actually shows up in the words of the scum role pms in the spoiler in the first post.

this is kind of a point that i could see being made against me though that i would just roll my eyes at.

i'm fairly reliant on light townslips/scumslips

i agree with you that this is a potential scumslip

[Mathdino]

nah i knew my vote was on mutant
anyone voting anyone is dangerous because you could just quickhammer people

paradox putting you at L-2 is also dangerous because someone not realising the plan could easily come in and L-1 you

[Mathdino]

i'm pretty sure he was baiting you. kind of obvious this time though, i think.

pedit yeah

if you're talking about me, no i was not baiting him

[Mathdino]

it's not lylo?

dude he's claimed scum

optimal play for him is to quickhammer any townie that gets to L-1

help me find third scum btw because right now i'm voting for vigging you

[Mathdino]

jmo16mla (4) ~ northsidegal, Mathdino, TheGoldenParadox, Luca Blight
jmo16mla (4) ~ northsidegal, Creature, Gamma Emerald, JaydragonKing

RVS jmo wagon next to the policy jmo wagon.

Mathdino (4) ~ JaydragonKing, TheGoldenParadox, Luca Blight, Gamma Emerald

Everyone ballsy enough to vote me.

northsidegal (4) ~ Creature, Mathdino, TheGoldenParadox, JaydragonKing
northsidegal (4) ~ JaydragonKing, Almost50, Mathdino, Luca Blight

Early pressure wagon next to the lategame lurker wagon.

Gamma Emerald (6) ~ jmo16mla, Pinturicchio, Mathdino, TheGoldenParadox, mutantdevle, Luca Blight

The Gamma wagon, now confirmed to be partially scum motivated.

Pinturicchio (6) ~ northsidegal, mutantdevle, Luca Blight, Mathdino, Almost50, JaydragonKing

The Pintu "lynch"wagon, with TheGoldenParadox's intent to hammer.

Aneninen (5) ~ TheGoldenParadox, Mathdino, Luca Blight, Almost50, Gamma Emerald
Aneninen (6) ~ Almost50, JaydragonKing, Mathdino, Luca Blight, Pinturicchio, mutantdevle
Aneninen (6) ~ Mathdino, Luca Blight, Almost50, Gamma Emerald, Pinturicchio, JaydragonKing

The many forms of the Aneninen wagon. All players who were on it are:
TheGoldenParadox, Mathdino, Luca Blight, Almost50, Gamma Emerald, JaydragonKing, Pinturicchio, mutantdevle.

mutantdevle (5) ~ Aneninen, Gamma Emerald, Mathdino, Almost50, JaydragonKing

mutant counterwagon.

Almost50 (6) ~ Pinturicchio, JaydragonKing, Luca Blight, mutantdevle, TheGoldenParadox, Gamma Emerald

Shitshow of a lynch wagon.

Analysis upon Jay scumflip:

jmo: RVS wagon was null. Policy/lurking wagon now confirmed to have 1 scum on it. Not looking for more scum here.
Mathdino: We found our scum on the me-wagon. I was initially thinking there had to be 1 scum on it. If it was all-town, scum would see me as an easier lynch target.
NSG: Jay was on it both times. I guess I can let go of NSG.
Gamma: Only 1 flipped scum on the Gamma wagon. I believe there should be 2. Looking here for next scum.
Pintu: The buswagon. All our scumspects are on it.
Aneninen: 1st Anen wagon is 3/5 town. 2nd and 3rd Anen wagon has 2 scum on it. Not sure what to make of this.
mutant: 3 town on this and one scum. Can very much jive with the idea of scum in {Anen, mutant}.
A50: Both scum started it, and {Luca, mutant, Paradox} hopped the fuck on.

Lynch/vig/jail order:

Lynch Jay
Vig Paradox
Jail mutant
*Assume Gamma dies*
Lynch Luca
Vig Aneninen
*Assume Vig, BRolecop, or Mathdino dies*

That puts us at 3p LyLo with some subset of {Mathdino, jmo, NSG, conftown mutant}, in which case we can lynch jmo (or whoever's not a power role).

That should win it.

[Mathdino]

Continuously calling me claimed scum when you have seen me do this EVERY GAME as EITHER ALIGNMENT is horrible and you know it Dino. Get off your ass and have your back up plan ready for when I flip Village Idiot.

Uh, vig Gamma and proceed as usual?

[Mathdino]

Ughhhh that plan is shit. Paradox is still town, regrettably.

HURT: jmo
HEAL: mutant

[Mathdino]

Continuously calling me claimed scum when you have seen me do this EVERY GAME as EITHER ALIGNMENT is horrible and you know it Dino. Get off your ass and have your back up plan ready for when I flip Village Idiot.

Uh, vig Gamma and proceed as usual?

WHAT THE FUCK KIND OF PLAN IS SHOOT GAMMA?!?!

OHHHHHH

Dude I thought you were still pretending to be jailkeeper. Right, my bad.

If Jay flips VI VT, Gamma jails whoever the fuck he wants and we still vig jmo or mutant.

[Mathdino]

No, guys, stop it lol. Jay doesn't fakeclaim in a 100% open setup. He only fakeclaims in semi-opens.

[Mathdino]

Oh I wasn't actually trying to read mutant there.

So at what point did you realise that the worst was actually the guy that got mafiakilled, vigged, and bodyguarded, while mutant was the D1 mislynch?

... Fuck.

WAIT LOL MUTANT IS CONFTOWN

MY BAD

Jay fucking forgot who mutant even was, and wrote paragraphs on how he'd advise mutant to not do what he did in Stack the Deck, mistaking mutant for the worst.

Okay, scum is in {Anen, Luca, jmo}.

[Mathdino]

HEAL: Luca

[Mathdino]

Okay, if Jay is VT, we can just vig mutant and move on. Gamma's jail will only mean anything if mutant is town, so he should jail on the basis that mutant is town (because if mutant is scum, mutant will just perform the nightkill).

If I HAD roled scum with Mutant this game, I would have told him certain things depending on which one of us is the goon, but let's just say he's the goon in this situation: I will Bus you to save myself if I feel endangered enough to think they'll kill me and play it off as just "being precautous" from a previous experience and getting huge town cred, and distance myself from my other scum partner as much as possible since I'd rather not take them with me should I go down too.

I'm of the general belief that scum doesn't lie when they don't have to. This is likely insight into Jay's scum strategy.

Okay so new plan:

Lynch Jay
Vig Aneninen
Jail Luca
Lynch jmo
Vig NSG

Leaving LyLo of 3/4 of {Mathdino, townslip-mutantdevle, conftown-Luca, Paradox}. In that situation, I think I'd just lynch mutant anyway.

[Mathdino]

HURT: Aneninen

Given that his scumpartner was being vigged and he was being wagoned, it's entirely plausible that his frustration was just genuine scum frustration/giving up in the hopes that Jay would be the deepwolf with his 100% scum winrate.

[Mathdino]

Dude I would've counterclaimed your ass so hard
You also repeatedly said you didn't believe I was a power role, gtfo of here

[Mathdino]

Look, Jay is getting lynched no matter what.

mutantdevle is the obvious kill if Jay flips VT. If Jay has any better ideas, he can come up with them.

But the price of fakeclaiming as town is ignoring them until they die. So let's continue with the assumption that Jay is scum and stop padding the pagecount with questions of Jay's alignment. It doesn't matter, we have a plan if he's town, let's move on.

[Mathdino]

mutantdevle is the obvious kill if Jay flips VT

explain this?

Do you have any better ideas or scumreads?

[Mathdino]

No, just that mutant isn't scum with Jay so Jay flipping town opens up mutant as scum

[Mathdino]

NGL it's still probably NSG by play post-bus, but I'm biased as fuck toward keeping her around for readily sheepable reads and if she's deepwolfing she can just die the day before LyLo.

That's 3 votes for vigging Anen (me, Luca, mutant). Add 2 for Mathdino proxy votes (Gamma, Paradox) and Aneninen should claim.

[Mathdino]

Hey NSG who we viggin
Who we jailin

[Mathdino]

TBH the question of jailkeeping isn't who we think is most likely to be scum after the vig target, it's who we most want to clear for LyLo.

So if we agree that Aneninen probably deserves rope for the latter half of D1, then the question is who we want to confirm between {Luca, NSG, jmo}. For activity reasons, I prefer Luca (also because Luca clearly doesn't want to be jailed). For gamesolving reasons, I could be down with jailing jmo.

[Mathdino]

ITT: The GoldenParadox utterly refuses to believe I could be this good

[Mathdino]

I think I'd be comfortable hammering Jay once Aneninen is done catching up and providing reads.

Given the VT claim, there's basically no reason to vig anyone else. We should be working on jail targets. Very much open to Aneninen's opinion on that.

[Mathdino]

Hm. I'll definitely want to go back to this on later days but for now it seems like if Jay flips scum there were two scum on the Anen wagon both of the later times. Kinda makes me think Anen is town in that case. Also interesting is Jay latevoting a lot of suspects d1. Seems like he's really intent to get that middle ground vote, also possibly the bus vote. I'll definitely check into that upon a Jay scumflip. For now let's go with I'm jailing mutant on Jay scumflip. Will note I feel like there should be another scum voting me as I was quite the juicy suspect d1. I'll give jmo a pass cos earlier vote meaning I'm looking in one of (TGP, mutant, LB). Whilst I townread LB I'm not going to make the statement that what I'm townreading them for couldn't come from them as scum as I have no baseline for that. He's still my definite last pick in those 3 for scum. Only issue I see to this is Pintu has Jay plus all 3 of them voting there so that's kinda a wacked wagon comp if that thought process is correct.

1. You're not going to survive the night. As such, you should be the one to place the L-1 vote.

2. Jay clearly has no issue with bussing. Assume he flips scum imo.

3. mutant is conftown upon Jay scumflip. I've gone over this. Jay didn't know who mutant even was.

4. I'm not into jailing Paradox. I think Luca is the right call tonight.

[Mathdino]

Because I think he's town, and he seems to hard-scumread me every time I say so.

[Mathdino]

@Gamma: So it displays a fundamental lack of strategy or direction, and much more displays irrationality/confusion indicative of town.

If he were scum, the correct move today is to work to get locktowned by me and coast to endgame. Instead he's continuing to antagonise me.

[Mathdino]

ok then
also Anen pls at this point there's a very minimal chance of you being scum and I hope Mathdino agrees with me but either way you have a fair bit going for you

Call it trite, but I disagree with vigging anyone else now that he's already claimed VT.

We're going to have 2 automatic clears tomorrow on account of being power roles. I'm a semi-clear by being good. mutant is also a semi-clear by way of Jay.

That leaves {NSG, Luca, jmo, Aneninen, Paradox}. Ideally, at least one of these is a power role. That hardsolves the game.

So tonight should be focused around townclearing 2 of these 5. One will be vigged (Aneninen, by agreement). One will be jailed. We want to avoid townclearing any power roles because they're just going to get cleared tomorrow anyway.

We want to jail a VT claim imo. I think that should be Luca.

Lynch Jay
Vig Aneninen
Jail Luca
Lynch jmo
Vig NSG
Lynch between Paradox/mutant/Mathdino
And that's game.