Mini 1769: Ice Cream Mafia - Game over!

[Aquanim]

Waffle cones are the best.

(icecream is okay too)

Golden Robster is mafia.

VOTE: mn
Why aren't you voting GR, then?

[Aquanim]

Why would I?

So as to vote for mafia and push for their lynch.

[Aquanim]

...
I do not play like that.

What do you play like?

[Aquanim]

Okay, mn, you think you know what you're doing. Impress me.

UNVOTE: mn

[Aquanim]

@Golden Robster

: Can you explain why you townread (or at least disagree with a scumread of) Masquerade?

[Aquanim]

Anyone around for a chat?

[Aquanim]

Let's talk about Golden Robster. On the one hand, I don't really understand the basis for Golden's reads. I don't see you prodding mn over his playstyle as scummy - it seemed like it had the same idea behind it (to get the game rolling and to get the measure of mn) as when I did it. While I wouldn't say I get any strong townread out of it I certainly wouldn't push back against somebody townreading you in the way that Golden has. I'm not sure where the Masquerade townread is coming from, either, and despite some fairly obvious opportunities to do so before I asked Golden hasn't explained it.

The scumread on Ocean is partially based on disagreement over those reads and I think partially based on Ocean not answering Golden's questions immediately - considering Ocean wasn't really dodging but instead pushing on an apparent inconsistency in Golden's reads (and chasing that would be more useful for Ocean before giving his own reads, rather than after) I don't think that that was scummy myself.

On the other hand, Golden's pushing is putting alignment-relevant stuff in the thread, which is good at this stage. I like #78 as a means of "pushing" the OceanWind discussion.

tl;dr: I don't like the reads that are being pushed but I do kinda like how it's being pushed. Your thoughts?

[Aquanim]

@Keyser

: It sounds like we're on similar pages with respect to Golden. I'd describe my conclusions less as "null-town lean" and more as "null, but this perspective on Golden will help me read them once there's more data".

I like those Ocean reads as well, though I don't think they're unfakeable. The way in which Ocean pushed back to get information out of Golden gives me more of a townread.

Anything else you want to talk about before I go sleep?

This game Is stagnant. We Must move It forward.

VOTE: Keyser Söze Let us remove the Annoying player.

but I like keyser

[Aquanim]

VOTE: Masquerade

Masquerade doesn't seem to be interested in pushing anything

or

getting information with which to push anything. All I see is a fairly generic question of KainTepes:

OK A QUICK LOOK AT ROBOSTER SHOWS ME HE IS PROBABLY TOWN... UNVOTE:

OCEANWIND IS SUSPICIOUS VOTE: OCEANWIND

MN IS NULL

Do you plan to sue capitals all game? I'm shouting your posts in my head while I'm reading them and it's annoying (the shouting in my head I mean)

Also, that's all you have to add?

but this wasn't pursued by Masquerade when Kain made a less-than-illuminating answer, and I don't think asking a vague and generic question like this of Kain in particular was ever going to get much of worth. This feels like a throwaway line, to look like being useful, not something said by a townie who really wants to find things out and get reads. Besides that, it's all talking about mn's personality or policy lynches.

[Aquanim]

I always have a slow start. I get scumread a lot for it early in the game. It's getting boring.

The only game of yours I can see that is finished is Blitz 22, in which you posted once in the first third of day 1, and got scumread for that. Are you saying you think this is the same as that?

Oh.

UNVOTE:

But why suggest a PL so early in the phase?

Also, why did you unvote here?

[Aquanim]

I'd be happier with the sheeping part of the KainTepes case if there were more data points, but this:

TRUE... now that I think about it...

SCUM would want not so good players to be alive as LONG as possible

so they can trick them later when people are fewer... bad town players want policy lynches...

So mn is not scum...

UNVOTE: mn

my tummy still HURTS... will think more when it STOPS HURTING...

All seriousness - We are talking about policy lynching keyser here who, might not be the best (I don't know), but he doesn't come across as bad. I don't really think changing a read based on the idea scum wouldn't want to lynch keyser because he isn't a great player is very town-like shall we say.

does feel like he's more comfortable debating policy lynches in general rather than the specifics of this game.

[Aquanim]

WHY ISNO ONE TALKING ABOUT ME....

VOTE: PHOENIX WROUGHT

Yeah, no... I don't believe that anybody is *that* inane.

VOTE: KainTepes

@Aquanim: ... it's not hard to figure out the answer to your 2nd question.

That's not an answer to the question, and I still want one.

[Aquanim]

Telltale is scum.

Discuss

If I were to make a case for Telltale being scum, it would be along the lines of the point about Kain sheeping jumping the gun a little (I'd have been happier seeing him do something meek like that a second time before pulling the trigger), and perhaps Telltale rushing it out after Slandaar went after Kain in #175 so as not to appear too Johnny-come-lately.

That being said, of the two of them, I'm definitely more interested in lynching Kain. The above is pretty subjective and not that strong.

What do you think?

[Aquanim]

...
I'm thinking this kain wagon is a mislynch.

I have a really hard time believing that any player, town or scum, would be completely unaware that they'd just been wagoned. Given that,

WHY ISNO ONE TALKING ABOUT ME....

VOTE: PHOENIX WROUGHT

this has to be a lie, and I don't see a reason for a townie to straight-up lie about it.

What part of that do you disagree with?

[Aquanim]

OceanWind has been prodded.

Sorry, stuff came up and I'm really tired and not feeling up to playing mafia at the moment. I'm going to have to give it a couple of days and then I'll re-read the thread and get back into the game.

Do you need to V/LA?

[Aquanim]

WHY ISNO ONE TALKING ABOUT ME....

VOTE: PHOENIX WROUGHT

@KainTepes

: Why did you vote for Phoenix Wright in this post?

[Aquanim]

I don't see any reason for town-Kain to post #206, short of him deliberately trolling us.

If Kain hasn't read the thread, why does he feel the need to make the claim nobody is talking about him?

[Aquanim]

@Keyser, Masquerade

: If you have an explanation for Kain's play besides him being scum flailing or a deliberate troll, you're going to have to sell me on it.

[Aquanim]

If anyone besides Kain doesn't understand why I'm voting him, feel free to ask.

Prod revceived.

My bad, probably tonight.

Please. Also massive, pops and Ocean (whenever you can)

[Aquanim]

Don't worry KainTepes, I won't be voting you. I don't believe in easy lynches.
...

Who do you think is a better lynch?

[Aquanim]

@Phoenix Wright

: Can I get some thoughts from you? You pick what.

[Aquanim]

THIS is TERRIBLE.... BBT LOOKS SO MUCH MORE INACTIVE THIS GAME THAN IN ALL THE GAMES WHERE HE IS TOWN,, I WILL NOT GIVE HIM ANY MORE CHANCES..............

VOTE: BLUE BLOODED TOFFEE

So this player, who's savvy enough to talk about meta, didn't read the thread enough to see he was being wagoned earlier?

I don't think so.

[Aquanim]

...
I think that this post is really bad. It didn't look like Golden Rpbster was defending mn. Somebody wanting mm replaced because of their playstyle is kind of drastic, so it's weird that ocean wind isn't acknowledging that at all. There's no accusatory tone and he isn't acting like masquerade isn't town. So Oceanwind is just trying really hard to get golden robster lynched. What do you think about it?

I agree that the part of Ocean's argument referencing mn isn't very good. I can well imagine a town-Golden Robster calling out someone for requesting a force-replace on mn, whatever GR's read on mn actually is.

However, the part referencing Ocean's read on Masquerade I feel has a bit more meat on it. Golden is at least probing at Masquerade with this post (trying to find out the motivation behind the force-replace request) and I certainly couldn't see any good reason to think Masquerade was town at the time. Pushing GR over this, even if the evidence that Golden previously townread Masquerade was pretty slim, was I imagine partly directed at finding out the reason for GR's town read on Masquerade (which IIRC never did get explained).

This was pretty early in the game, so Ocean reaching a bit for material doesn't seem that scummy to me. I know I've fallen into the trap of "point A is scummy, point B is similar so it must be scummy too (even though point B is much more tenuous)" myself in the past.

[Aquanim]

KainTepes is town but that's obvi

Considering this line of thought:

I don't see any reason for town-Kain to post #206, short of him deliberately trolling us.

If Kain hasn't read the thread, why does he feel the need to make the claim nobody is talking about him?

explain to me why town-Kain makes this post:

WHY ISNO ONE TALKING ABOUT ME....

VOTE: PHOENIX WROUGHT

That goes to anyone town-reading Kain, by the way.

(Also, in hindsight, I don't even think it's likely Kain making that post is a pure troll.)

[Aquanim]

town-Kain is suspicious of everyone, even people not trying to mislynch him and Phoenix Wrought. It's very healthy mistrust.

No, that's not an answer to the question. Why does Kain feel the need to say that nobody is talking about him, when that is completely untrue?

[Aquanim]

Because his stomach hurts.

...

[Aquanim]

words have failed me

[Aquanim]

I'm pretty sure KT will verify my response himself.

And you're going to take his word for it?

Better yet, how does a stomach-ache actually account for Kain saying something that there's no reason for him to remark upon if he hasn't read the thread?

[Aquanim]

I don't see the scum narrative. His scum strategy is to skip reading the thread and draw attention to himself? I don't believe he's played 1000 games of "town of salem" but I believe he's played 10. You're not really painting me a very believable picture, your just pushing an easy day 1 VI lynch.

It reads to me like someone with the mentality small child playing hide-and-seek, hiding in the corner and covering his eyes thinking "if I can't see you, you can't see me", hoping that if he doesn't look at the danger it will just go away.

Whether Kain in fact has that mentality or he's just projecting it, it fits somebody of that mentality

deliberately trying to deceive

.

[Aquanim]

EBWOP: I agree it's not a standard scum picture, but I cannot find a town picture that includes that post which even makes any sense.

[Aquanim]

Kain is really taking the "hide" out of hide and seek, Aquanim. He posts frequently, in all caps, and posts even if he has nothing about the game of which to speak.

The point of the analogy isn't the "hide-and-seek" part, it's the "if I can't see you, you can't see me" part.

[Aquanim]

That was a characterization of what Aquanim had just told me.

No, it's really not. I didn't say Kain skipped reading the thread and drew attention to himself as scum.

The scenario which makes sense to me is that Kain read the thread, saw there was pressure on him, then decided he'd *pretend* not to have read the thread, so he wouldn't have to answer to the pressure.

[Aquanim]

Kain is really taking the "hide" out of hide and seek, Aquanim. He posts frequently, in all caps, and posts even if he has nothing about the game of which to speak.

This

seems more relevant to personality than alignment.

And iirc someone said he's played more chillaxedly in a different game where he was town, and he's even less concerned with keeping a low profile this game. Assuming this game is the one where he's drawn scum would be a Too Scummy To Be Scum argument.

I think it was this game:

link

in which he never got wagoned, which is what's driven him to his higher-profile activity this game.

[Aquanim]

I just can't give the much masterminding credit to someone who thinks ice cream is a good idea for an upset stomach.

"Cover your eyes and pretend nobody is looking at you" is mastermind-level play now?

[Aquanim]

Let's go back to where I started.

Do you think Kain had read the thread and knew he was under pressure when he posted #206?

[Aquanim]

How much attention one draws to oneself should indeed be based on meta, but Kain is exceeding even his own meta in terms of suicidal flashy behavior, so it should be seen as alignment indicative.

Actually, what basis do you have for this? In the game I linked, town-Kain had 40 posts by post 200 (as opposed to 12 or so here), and in those 40 posts there is pushing of reads with at least some pretense to reasons (none of which I saw here by that point).

[Aquanim]

Given what he posted, no. Either way, I don't think it's alignment indicative. If he said no one was talking about him, I think there is a 99.99% chance that's what he believed to be the case.
...

I really don't think that's a post anybody makes if they haven't actually read the thread.

[Aquanim]

I'd argue Kain's 127 is more protown than everything he posted in that other game combined. Either way, he did far less to spotlight himself that game.

Kain's #127:

Let us policy lynch and move on.

now he is SCUM

VOTE: mn

is spotlighting himself less than this?

Also I am Mafia Suicide Bomber so both Not_mafia and xotxm is lying

(among the fully 20% of the thread he occupied in the other game)

Please tell me you're joking.

[Aquanim]

Oops, wrong way around.

Kain positively APED the spotlight in his other game. Here he jumped on mn, who was about as boring and safe a target as you can get.

[Aquanim]

I can't imagine any way to draw attention to yourself faster than "why is nobody talking about me". You can't even upgrade it by saying "talk about me" because then it no longer has the snazzy passive aggresion.

You're missing my point though - I think Kain was trying to avoid having to talk about the wagon against him by pretending he didn't know about it.

In practice, it drew a lot of attention to him, but I don't think that was the intention.

[Aquanim]

Oops, wrong way around.

Kain positively APED the spotlight in his other game. Here he jumped on mn, who was about as boring and safe a target as you can get.

To elaborate on this: In his other game, Kain called out two players as scum near the very beginning, and pushed them with consistency for a decent period of time. Looked like he was at least trying to apply pressure,

and to draw attention to himself as a player worthy of respect

(see this post).

In this game, he pushed Golden Robster for a post or two, then switched to Oceanwind with no explanation, then switched to mn (with a bit of explanation, but mn was as previously noted a pretty safe and boring target).

Then he says this:

I dont see a reason to LYNCH anyone rn, period... its hardly been 2 days into the game...

where in his other game he scumread somebody within an hour of the game starting, and then scumread somebody else (

who turned out to be scum, and who he claims to be proud of having caught from the start

) a few minutes later.

I'm not saying that this meta comparison is a strong reason to scumread Kain but I don't see how it is a reason to townread him.

[Aquanim]

I think anyone young enough to expect that plan to work doesn't have internet access yet.

Then give me another plausible explanation of why Kain made that post.

[Aquanim]

I think anyone young enough to expect that plan to work doesn't have internet access yet.

Then give me another plausible explanation of why Kain made that post.

Do you think Kain is legit or is it some sort of gimmick alt?

I'm not sure.

No matter whether he is legit or not

, I don't think anybody makes that post if they haven't read the thread, I don't see a reason why a townie would make that post and lie, and I do see a reason why a scum would.

It's the kind of thing somebody says after they read the thread and are frusturated it's not meeting their expectations, not something that just gets said out of the blue. If he's town, why does he care that nobody's talking about him anyway?

[Aquanim]

The more I think about it, the more it rings true with me as scum mentality.

And in the end... if he's a deliberate troll then I will not feel bad about lynching him even if he flips town.

[Aquanim]

If I started deciding not to lynch people with the rationale of "what if they're a townie consciously trying to throw" I'd never lynch anybody.

[Aquanim]

If I started deciding not to lynch people with the rationale of "what if they're

a townie consciously trying to throw

" I'd never lynch anybody.

Maybe I'm giving him too much credit but I don't think that's the case here.

Yeah, neither do I. I think he's scum.

[Aquanim]

If you don't, you must have some explanation for how he's a townie and not deliberately throwing... so let's hear it.

[Aquanim]

Make #206 make sense to me as a post by a townie who isn't deliberately trying to screw over the game.

I don't care about reasons it was bad for him to do it as scum, I care about a reason why he *would* do it as town.

I'm waiting.

[Aquanim]

Make #206 make sense to me as a post by a townie who isn't deliberately trying to screw over the game.

I don't care about reasons it was bad for him to do it as scum, I care about a reason why he *would* do it as town.

I'm waiting.

because its part of his gimmick... why are you taking that post so serious yet ignoring other posts like where he voted for the freaking mod?

Kain voting for the mod was just screwing around. Not alignment indicative.

Trying to dodge talking about the votes and arguments against him by lying and pretending he hasn't read the thread is not just screwing around.

[Aquanim]

...
you are just missing the joke in 206

"WHY ISNO ONE TALKING ABOUT ME...." when people WERE talking about him.

He claimed later that he wasn't reading the thread:

I WILL READ MORE BACKWARD...but i have a SHORT ATTENTION SPAN and my memory is not VERY GOOD also my tummy just got better............. I WILL READ SOON....

Given that it extends over multiple posts, there's a fairly straightforward reason why scum would want to project that impression, and Kain never engaged with the scum reads made on him before that point, I do not buy this as an innocent joke. (I also don't see how it's funny.)

[Aquanim]

VOTE: KEYSER

DIE KEYSERRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!!!!!! YOU ARE A MEAN PERSON!!!!

Of all the people in this game, Keyser is not a "mean person", and I don't see how anybody can honestly come to that conclusion.

@BlueBloodedToffee

: I'd prefer to see Keyser's reply to your arguments before weighing in on that myself.

That being said, you played against scum-Keyser in Mini Normal 1719 - my feel-read of that game is that he was a lot less assertive about his opinions as compared to Mini 1744 where I saw him as town, and this game is feeling more like the latter than the former to me. You played in the first game so you might have a different perspective; if so I'd like to hear it.

[Aquanim]

I'm also liking GuyFawkes for scum.
...

I scumread the Masquerade slot, and that didn't go away when it sheeped the Kain wagon then jumped off when Keyser did with the following reason:

@Aquanim: Just the one post where he seems to have reason. I don't completely agree with his reads but it shows he put thought into it.
...

I don't think "he made one post to which I can find a way to ascribe townie motivation" is a legit reason to townread somebody. Pretty much every scum I've ever seen made some posts which were at least moderately towny.

The only redeeming feature of Guy's defense of Kain is that I can kind of believe that a townie might believe #437.

If anything, popsofctown's defense of Kain was even worse - pretty much boiled down to "I'm more experienced than you, neener neener", "too bad to be scum" and again cherrypicking individual things which a townie motivation could be ascribed to and ignoring the bigger picture.

Seems kind of unlikely they're both scum, though.

[Aquanim]

That being said, you played against scum-Keyser in Mini Normal 1719 - my feel-read of that game is that he was a lot less assertive about his opinions as compared to Mini 1744 where I saw him as town, and this game is feeling more like the latter than the former to me. You played in the first game so you might have a different perspective; if so I'd like to hear it.

I assume you have signatures turned off.

No, I see his signature. Pretty sure it hasn't changed since I played with BBT over a year ago.

I think there's a difference between "informing oneself about meta" and "building a case around meta/relying on meta". I agree with BBT that the second is unreliable.

[Aquanim]

Put nobody at L-1 unless you're willing for them to be hammered without warning.

[Aquanim]

...
Is this you saying that you think Keyser has been assertive with his opinion this game? If so, show me some examples.

I think his scumread into null-read of Kain is a read that Keyser put his back into. I am not saying that it's a strong read on Kain one way or the other (which it obviously isn't), or that I think it is a good read - I am saying it is a read which Keyser went to a lot of effort to explain. (Further, he knew he would have to do that when he made the switch back to a null read, and he wasn't afraid to do so.) His trying to get more information out of Kain since then also rings true to me.

For another example, these posts, the read on mn isn't super strong in the first post and there isn't a read on pops at all in the second, but the tone is firm and assertive. His posts in his scumgame have a much less decisive tone.

@BBT

: Had you read the thread through before you started writing your review (starting here)?

[Aquanim]

...
and the fact he went back to a null read should tell you something. ...

Yeah, indeed it did.

Why do you think a scum-Keyser felt that making that scum read on Kain, and then retracting it, was a good idea?

[Aquanim]

It shows 'effort' in an attempt to make reads. It shows a pro-active attitude. It shows an attempt to scum hunt.

But this all falls flat on it's face when it always ends with a null read and a serious lack of committment and conviction.

Agree or disagree?

Are you saying that you think Keyser planned from the start to retract back to a null read or not?

[Aquanim]

I agree that it's not impressive play, but the more important question is "what was scum-Keyser thinking when he did this?".

I don't see why he would plan from the start to vote and then unvote Kain; he would know that would look sketchy, and there were other things he could have pursued to "show effort" that would not look sketchy.

I don't see why he would vote Kain, and then decide he should unvote after Kain did even scummier stuff and the wagon gained momentum with myself and Masquerade. If Kain's scum he comes under a ton of pressure if/when Kain flips; if Kain's town, he just rides it to a mislynch.

Neither of those seems like a good plan.

On the other hand, I don't find it *that* hard to believe that a town-Keyser changed his mind.

[Aquanim]

Since you're not voting for him, I assume you disagree with my scumread of Kain. Why?

[Aquanim]

Firstly, you're assuming all scum think everything through that they do; this isn't the case.

No, I'm not. I'm assuming Keyser Söze, as scum, thinks through the votes he chooses to make.

[Aquanim]

@Aquanim

Your wagons are small compared to others - what makes them worth existing at this stage? You should talk about them more if they're interesting.

What is your read on KainTepes?

if they're not interesting why not help me put Keyser to L-1 to force a claim? That could be a bit more entertaining and give us something new to debate also.

I think Keyser's probably town.

[Aquanim]

What is your read on KainTepes?

Don't have one, what's yours?

Do you not have one because you haven't looked, or because your read is null?

[Aquanim]

...
A combination of both - what of him I have read is little, but it is not particularly screaming town or scum to me.
Why, is there part of him I should read that would give me a town/scum vibe on him?
You also didn't answer my question to you - asking your read of him. Why not?
...

I wanted to know where you were at first.

Why I think KainTepes is mafia

- #129 looks like Kain is hiding behind it being early in the day to avoid discussing his scumreads. Considering that in Kain's completed towngame he voted for scum an hour in and said he was frusturated nobody followed him, he claims to be "a VERY AGGRESSIVE player" as town, and in his towngame he in fact had some fidelity to his early reads despite resistance, I don't buy this.

- The arguments Slandaar and TTH made starting here.

- Kain pretended in #206 not to have read the thread, to dodge talking about the points Slandaar and TTH made about him. I don't believe that he (or anyone) would make that post if they hadn't read the thread (he also claimed not to have read the thread in #219), and I don't believe that a townie having read the thread would dodge like that (unless there were some underlying plan, which I've seen no sign of). I've already been over this at length.

- There is nothing redeeming about the reads Kain has made, and I don't see any coherent town thought process behind his switching from one to the next. I think there should be one if he's capable of these observations:

THIS is TERRIBLE.... BBT LOOKS SO MUCH MORE INACTIVE THIS GAME THAN IN ALL THE GAMES WHERE HE IS TOWN,, I WILL NOT GIVE HIM ANY MORE CHANCES..............

VOTE: BLUE BLOODED TOFFEE

...
too many people suddenly interested in keyser,, feels OPPORTUNISTIC

None of those points is explained away by Kain being a PR.

@everyone

: If you don't think Kain is scum, I want to know what in the above you disagree with.

[Aquanim]

- #129 looks like Kain is hiding behind it being early in the day to avoid discussing his scumreads. Considering that in Kain's completed towngame he voted for scum an hour in and said he was frusturated nobody followed him, he claims to be "a VERY AGGRESSIVE player" as town, and in his towngame he in fact had some fidelity to his early reads despite resistance, I don't buy this.

Did you look at any of his scum games to see if he plays slower as scum than as town?Because if he does then you're selling me super well on this case, but if he doesn't then I'm not sure this point is as relevant as you think.

Kain doesn't have any other completed games. The point is not so much comparing his activity in this game to that one, as that his stated position in this game (that it being only 2 days in is a reason not to have reasons to lynch anybody) disagrees with his observed position as town. I do agree that this point would be stronger with scum meta to compare to.

...

- There is nothing redeeming about the reads Kain has made, and I don't see any coherent town thought process behind his switching from one to the next.

I (slightly) agree with this, but will admit I am leaning towards a belief that the noted play is what Kain thinks of as him being an aggressive player.

I see where you're coming from here; I can believe a town-Kain would think that throwing his vote around a whole bunch is an effective scum-hunting tactic. The content of the reads is the worse part - given how much Kain's demonstrated he knows about the game, I don't see the townie behind the reads he's made.

[Aquanim]

@everyone else

: Even if you already have an opinion of Kain in the thread, I still want to see your thoughts on #642.

[Aquanim]

@Thor

: Do you have avatars turned on?

[Aquanim]

...

@Thor

: Do you have avatars turned on?

Yes.

The reason I ask is because the conversation with TellTaleHeart you're talking about here...

...
Conversely - go and read [BlueBloodedToffee's] interplay from the page I noted him as a town read, he is talking to TTH. He makes multiple comments about multiple players and expresses many views that seem open minded and built to generate discussion. Not only is this the opposite of tunneling (and shows that his focus is healthy, and not blind in any way) it also looks immensely town.

was not a conversation with BlueBloodedToffee at all - it was with Boonskiies. BlueBloodedToffee has at no point expressed "multiple comments about multiple players". His entire catchup sequence is focused on Keyser (and totally ignored the Kain-shaped elephant in the room).

The few comments BBT has made about players who aren't Keyser don't convince me that he's thinking seriously about determining alignments either; there's a few things about Kain which are non-committal as to Kain's alignment, an unexplained scumread on Ocean, a townread on the Masquerade slot solely based on its replacing out, and an unexplained townread on me. That's it.

...
BBT is not tunneling.
...

The conversation I had with BlueBloodedToffee about Keyser starting here did not feel to me at all like BBT was seriously considering anything I said.

Spoiler:

...
I don't see Keyser being assertive at all and the fact he went back to a null read should tell you something. Effort is not indicative alignment, look at his content. It's poor.

In the post previous to this I gave examples of Keyser having an assertive tone. This felt to me like BBT was determined to talk about only his own definition of "assertive", rather than understand the point I was trying to make.

Firstly, you're assuming all scum think everything through that they do; this isn't the case.

This was a serious misrepresentation of my argument:

...
No, I'm not. I'm assuming Keyser Söze, as scum, thinks through the votes he chooses to make.

If Kain got lynched right now, who would you say is the primary pusher of the wagon? Who would shoulder the most responsibilty for the lynch? It certainly isn't Keyser but he has contributed a hell of a lot to lynch a person he doesn't have a read on.

Completely missing my point that Keyser's actions were guaranteed to get him a lot of scrutiny, even before a Kain lynch, and that that would be obvious to Keyser from the start.

tl;dr: BBT isn't even paying attention to any arguments that contradict his claimed point of view on Keyser.

This is also the exact opposite to how I think a townie should be thinking:

The only reason I am saying it is because if Kain is scum, he will be easy to catch.

I want to catch the people who are much more likely to slip through the net. Like Keyser.

Kain could well slip through the net through nobody wanting to engage with him - in fact, it's happened today. Somebody who spams the thread like Keyser is never going to get forgotten. I don't see why a town-BBT would think this.

Further, I townread Keyser and don't like the wagon on him.
- I think Keyser is genuine in his interest in what other people think and what their alignment is, and getting information into the thread in general (e.g. pushing mn at the start of the game to get things going, #224, #235, #543).
- Keyser has not been reticient about explaining his reads (even if I don't agree with the final analysis of some of them); most of his reads in the first week were not conclusive, but given how many lurkers and generally unsatisfactory there were in the first week, there weren't really all that many strong reads to be made. Keyser's made some long posts that didn't really go anywhere (e.g. this stuff on mn, his list of reasons to lynch Kain) but I've seen posts like that from him as town (e.g. this).
- I can't see any good reason why Keyser would flip as he did about Kain as scum. If Kain's his scumbuddy, Keyser's inviting a lot of pressure onto himself; if Kain is town, then what Keyser's done is far more conspicuous than simply riding an easy mislynch, or arguing against it in the first place.

It doesn't look like a Kain lynch is going to happen today, so:
UNVOTE: KainTepes
VOTE: BlueBloodedToffee

[Aquanim]

Looking at the iso though, I still don't think the tunneling issue really holds water,

What is your definition of a tunnel? So far as I can see, BBT's never so much as considered lynching or pressuring anybody else today, from the very beginning of his catch-up.

and I'm not sure I'm buying the intentional misunderstanding thing either - I live in a universe of people claiming I'm intentionally misunderstanding them though, so I will admit I tend to be pretty soft on that as a scumtell.

I can understand why you would feel that way.

He is assuredly Keyser focused - but if that's a crime feels like you should also be calling me scum, yeah?

The difference is that I feel like you are interested in getting thoughts, or at least reactions, out of other people through pushing Keyser. I don't get that vibe from BBT's posts.

I also like the immediate defense of Masquerade for the replace out, very unopportunistic for a theory scum.

Meh. I don't townread the Masquerade slot, either, and it's gotten BBT out of saying anything more about the slot.

[Aquanim]

Scumhunting is more than just calling someone scum.
Calling people town, and asking people for their reads on various people and (as BBT did)

even inviting conversations on players outside the tunnel

, is all called 'scumhuntung' in my book.

The only instance of BBT doing this I can see is asking Boonskiies for his read on mn and Golden Robster. I don't say BBT has done literally nothing but talk about Keyser, but there's very little, and none of it impresses me.

What's your definition, and in addition to that, explain how it's scummy.
Because even legit tunneling, to my mind, is only scummy insomuch as you avoid giving reads on other players. That's the beginning and the end of what makes tunneling scummy as far as I'm aware, and I don't see that from BBT in any metric.

My definition is largely the same as yours, except I don't think someone has to be doing literally nothing else to be tunneling. I think BBT is indeed using his push on Keyser to avoid talking about other players very much. Like I said, he's offered very few other opinions and none of them interesting or detailed.

BBT is basically active and is asking questions - sure, not as much as me, and maybe not in an aggressive style, but the core concept is still there in microcosm, and at that stage - what's the difference?

I don't think that assessment is accurate. BBT prod-dodged for a week (during the period where the thread was focused on Kain, which I can imagine scum would be uncomfortable with), and asked a few pretty tame questions which don't convince me that he's actually thinking about the game.

Meh. I don't townread the Masquerade slot, either, and it's gotten BBT out of saying anything more about the slot.

Except it hasn't - no one has questioned him about the slot at all and he went out of his way to note the slot as town, and then later to bring it up in defense from a weak, and empty, and lonely vote from TTH.
So there is no evidence to suggest he wants to avod discussing the slot, and there is evidence to suggest the opposite conclusion of what you're theorizing here.
I'm not sold.

BBT didn't say anything about the Masquerade slot to TTH except about the replacement, and there's certainly more one could talk about with respect to that slot (Masquerade hopping on and off the Kain wagon early without much explanation, GuyFawkes defending Kain while being null on him, the lurking since then...)

[Aquanim]

So it's a case based on a matter of degrees then. That's always going to be a harder sell.

Nobody said the game was easy.

Outside of the opinion part "interesting"
I would note that "detailed" is a bit of a playstyle issue, and "few other" is a degree - how many pinions does he need to offer to be not scummy?

He is assuredly offering some on a fair slate of players, often unasked

- to my mind that is not a calculated plan to avoid giving reads, or if it is, then it's clever enough to fool me...and also obligated to still give reads to mask not giving...other...reads?

The few reads he has offered are not convincing me that BBT is seriously assessing this game in an effort to find scum.

Yes, except for mentioning the light of the sun, he did not mention the sun, and he could have talked about the heat of the sun, or the rotation of it but didn't.
This is nitpicky, isn't it?

There's a pattern between both Kain and the Masquerade slot of BBT sticking with a superficial argument to townread them and not discussing the meat of the cases being made against those players.

I also feel like you're trying to sell your case on associatives, correct me if I'm wrong, but if I conclusively proved that Kain was town (or maybe that Boon was) it would put a big hole in your case on BBT, yes?
Doesn't that concern you as far as your reason for pushing the slot?

No - I think that BBT might well not be comfortable talking about Kain even if Kain is town. Boonskiies' alignment isn't relevant to anything I've said about BBT, why do you think it is?

[Aquanim]

AQUANIM SUDDENLY SAY I AM TOWN???? I THOUGHT YOU WANTED TO LYNCH ME EARLIER,,

VOTE: AQUANIM

Where do you think I said this?

[Aquanim]

@Massive and Titus

: your thoughts on BBT?

[Aquanim]

@popsofctown

: If you want the Golden Robster slot lynched, convince me.

I don't think more of Golden for the replace out but I don't think it's alignment indicative.

...All the opportunism and questionable pushing of the BBT slot...

The only instance of this I see is #132, which doesn't look like Golden is trying to get all that much mileage out of it.

I didn't agree with a fair few of the positions Golden purported to feel strongly about (e.g. the scumread on Oceanwind and TTH, the townread on Kain) but I got the feeling that Golden's forcefulness was intended to provoke reactions/get information out of other people. I'd be much more confident in that read if I'd gotten to see Golden's conclusions, but I'm not seeing your reasons for thinking that Golden/Titus is the best lynch today.

[Aquanim]

...
BBT is easy to sort once he starts posting. Activity is not alignment-indicative, no matter what anyone says, so why are you trying to push it as such? If you're trying to sell scum-BBT because of a throwaway magical townread, why isn't Ircher getting the same attention?

Well, he's started posting - what is your read on him?

The core point against BBT is that I think he has jumped on Keyser (against whom there was a fair bit of thread sentiment before BBT's entry), and has been hiding behind saying Keyser is scum a lot, to avoid having to talk about the rest of the game and to lynch Keyser, who I think is town and a fairly valuable town player at that.

That assessment is, however, less true of BBT's recent posts.

[Aquanim]

@BlueBloodedToffee

: Summarise your scumread of Keyser in a paragraph or less.

[Aquanim]

@massive

:

...
BBT is easy to sort once he starts posting. Activity is not alignment-indicative, no matter what anyone says, so why are you trying to push it as such? If you're trying to sell scum-BBT because of a throwaway magical townread, why isn't Ircher getting the same attention?

Well, he's started posting - what is your read on him?
...

[Aquanim]

@Titus, Guy

: Do you have a reason to think Ircher is mafia which is not based on association?

[Aquanim]

@Titus, Guy

: Do you have a reason to think Ircher is mafia which is not based on association?

Is there any reason to believe he is town?

I agree with many of the things he's said and (more importantly) I think that he believes them. So yes, I have reason to think Ircher is town.

You are dodging the question.

[Aquanim]

Thor's in the mn slot. Titus is in Golden Robster's slot.

[Aquanim]

@Aqua

- If it wouldn't be too much trouble, could I have a readlist, so I know where everyone is currently standing?
...

I townread TellTaleHeart, Keyser and you. Weaker townreads on Slandarr and Thor; I don't have any good reason to think they're scum at this stage, but I don't think they're incapable of what they've done so far as scum.

I don't have much of a read one way or another on the GR/Titus slot, but this kind of slow start is consistent with what I've seen of Titus in the past. I'd like to see what she does tomorrow. I want some more time to read Boonskiies too.

Massive and pops could well be scum, though I think they're less likely than Guy or BBT. I'm not liking massive's vote for you or his general inactivity, though I'm not sure the latter is alignment-indicative for him. Pops trying to lynch GR/Titus over the replace out was sketchy, and I don't have any good reason to think he's town.

Some of BBT's more recent posts gave me pause for thought but his disappearance from the thread now that he's no longer under pressure is not making me scumread him any less. I still scumread Kain, but I'm prepared to see how the claim pans out. Besides our conversation about Kain which I more or less forced him into, Guy's done nothing but take potshots at you and Keyser, and I am not getting the feeling that Guy is actively trying to get either of you lynched or to get more information. All three of them being scum seems too easy, though.

[Aquanim]

Yeah, BBT did disappear again, but I'm willing to sort it out tommorrow.
Thanks for the meta tip on Titus.

I notice you're voting BBT right now, since deadline is approaching, would it be okay for you to join the Guy wagon? Keyser's at L-2 and Guy is currently at L-3, so I don't think adding your vote to Guy would be a problem.

I still want some answers out of BBT, but I suppose my vote alone doesn't really help with that much.

UNVOTE: BlueBloodedToffee
VOTE: GuyFawkes

[Aquanim]

...

@GuyFawkes

: Do you have a reason to think Ircher is mafia which is not based on association?

[Aquanim]

That's L-1.

[Aquanim]

@BlueBloodedToffee

: Summarise your scumread of Keyser in a paragraph or less.

Considering that vote it might not be current but I still want to see this.

[Aquanim]

Get

The hell

Off of Guy.

I presume you townread Guy - why?

[Aquanim]

Okay, I'm headed off; I should be around tomorrow, but I have been suffering some technical difficulties so just in case:

Why I think the Masquerade/GuyFawkes slot is scum

- Masquerade was active at the start of the game but wasn't trying to get information out of anybody or make reads.

- Masquerade sheeped the Kain wagon when it gained momentum (after myself and Keyser voted it), then jumped right back off again after Keyser did, with lacklustre explanation in both cases. Regardless of Kain's alignment I can see scum wanting to have a presence on his wagon if it looked like it was going through. Masquerade was also under pressure from me at the time to do some scumhunting; this feels to me like an attempt to look active in that regard.

- GuyFawkes defended Kain quite strongly upon his replace, despite his stated null read on Kain and this:

We are going to just waste the day away if all anybody does is argue about kain tapes

I did draw Guy into the Kain discussion, but Guy didn't look at all interested in actually doing anything else, despite his statement to the contrary.

- Since then the entirety of Guy's activity has been been taking potshots at Keyser and Ircher, and I don't get the feeling that Guy is trying to improve his reads, get information, or actually push for his preferred lynch.

@Everyone voting elsewhere

: I want to know why you disagree with the above.

[Aquanim]

I think I understand why Titus thinks GuyFawkes is a mason, and I think she's wrong (though probably not lying).

My vote stands.

[Aquanim]

And his case against me?

- Considering that I wanted to know the answers to the questions you asked, I would not describe your reaction to those associative cases as "flailing".
- I think no-lynching is terribad d1 but I can believe you'd prefer it to lynching Keyser.
- I think the "why me" point is a serious stretch.

tl;dr: I'm not buying that, either.

[Aquanim]

Looking at Guy's recent posts, I think that if he is a mason he had a plan to claim it before deadline if necessary.

[Aquanim]

How is THAT pr fishing????

Whoever Guy says he might be willing to lynch = probably not his mason
Guy says he'd never been willing to lynch me = probably his mason buddy

Pretty blatantly obvious there.

Couldn't you make that argument about just about anything Ircher said to or asked of Guy at this point?

[Aquanim]

@Ircher

: I don't think this is a winning play for a Titus/Guy scumteam. Eventually, either Titus will have to claim to be Guy's mason partner or the third scum will, and one way or another (PR actions, too many PRs, etc.) it would almost have to come out before endgame.

That leaves three possibilities:

1) Titus is scum and Guy is town. If Titus-scum has nothing to lose today (all the wagons are on town) I can believe she might be pulling this as a gambit for towncred. I don't think this case is very likely though.

2) Titus is town, but not masons with Guy. Like I said, I think I know why Titus would think Guy is a mason in this case, and I think she is wrong. That doesn't inherently say anything about Guy's alignment, but I think he is presently hiding behind the WIFOM and hoping it will save him.

3) Titus is town and masons with Guy. I think this is unlikely; I don't see why Titus would play this out in the way she has, or display her earlier willingness to vote for Guy.

I still think Guy is the best lynch today in the absence of a claim.

[Aquanim]

This legitimately isn't TownIrcher. Like at all. In Mini 1755, I hardcore tunneled him and he got SUPER DEFENSIVE and pointed out what I was doing wrong in that.

Sounds like you're describing these posts to me.

Also, he consistently was open to the idea of considering ALL possibilities, where here he is not.

I don't see why you think having focus on his reads at 12 hours to deadline is scummy.

[Aquanim]

You're being extremely anti-town for no discernable reason

Hardly.

I wouldn't stop the VCA analysis if I wasn't convinced that Guy was a mason.

What vote count analysis?

[Aquanim]

You should not pretend to actually be an expert on my meta if you don't know the answer to this.

It's on day 3+ with a scumflip looking at the votes and seeing who is likely town and working backwards. It's a Titusonian hallmark.

I know what vote count analysis is.

I've never claimed to be an expert on your meta. I'd have to read your games... *shudders*

Further, in what sense are your present actions stopping you from doing such a thing on day 3?

[Aquanim]

You don't get to bully me when you have fewer votes.

[Aquanim]

aquanim is masons with tth

Care to contribute anything else?

[Aquanim]

I'm done for the night.

The unrepentant awfulness in this game has just made the part of my brain responsible for logic give up.

Will you be back before deadline?

[Aquanim]

When will you be available between now and deadline?

What do you make of the mason "claim"?

[Aquanim]

Has GuyFawkes roleclaimed yet?

GuyFawkes has not yet roleclaimed GuyFawkes' role, no.

[Aquanim]

I really wish some of the words in that sentence were not necessary.

[Aquanim]

Titus has claimed that GuyFawkes is a mason (with whom, or why, she hasn't said). GuyFawkes' reply was:

Titus, what makes you think I'm a mason?

Beyond that Guy hasn't claimed anything at all.

[Aquanim]

I think that puts Guy at L-1.

[Aquanim]

Why would GuyFawkes not roleclaim and drag us nearer to the deadline with WIFOM?

Survival?
...

That's the only explanation I can think of.

I'd like to see an actual roleclaim before a hammer but looking at when Guy's been active previously I suspect it wouldn't happen before deadline.

[Aquanim]

Hey, Aqua, Pop, TTH, and Thor. Let's have a little chat.

Who do you guys believe is scum in this group of 4?

Of those three, I think Pops is most likely. Very much doubt TTH is scum, and I think Thor is unlikely too.

[Aquanim]

Clever.

I haven't looked into associatives with Thor yet, but my best guess is that it's two of {BBT, Pops, Massive}. My townread on him aside, Keyser seems very unlikely based on Thor trying to lynch him. I could be wrong on Ircher, but the sheer amount of work he's put into putting his thoughts into the thread still makes me lean town on him, role-fishing or not. The whole mason thing still seems unlikely from scum-Titus.

[Aquanim]

I'm not seeing why a town-investigative-Thor would have not wanted to lynch or even pressure Kain d1 after Kain softclaimed an investigative role.

[Aquanim]

I'm not seeing why a town-investigative-Thor would have not wanted to lynch or even pressure Kain d1 after Kain softclaimed an investigative role.

I'm not seeing why I would - you're claiming I should have automatically assumed that it was impossible to have two investigative town roles because that's so strange and rare...?

Because it's not - there are double investigative all the time.

I'm not saying you should have automatically assumed it was impossible - I'm saying you should have assumed it was unlikely enough that Kain at least merited some scrutiny.

I still don't know why Thor665 didn't investigate me - makes me think he knew I wasn't bullsh*tting about being a VT. There was only one way he was going to force my miss-lynch through on D2... with evidence. I.e a positive investigation. Yet he chooses to target Slandaar...

Thus, no N1 follow through with the reads he expressed during D1.

I don't think this is a strong point. If town-Thor believed he could force through a lynch on you without the check, then checking you would be a waste of time. I don't inherently find Thor checking Slandaar unbelievable. (Of course, that would also be why scum-Thor would deliver that kill.)

On the other hand, I can well believe that Kain believed he could not force a lynch on me without a redcheck.


When everyone's said all they want to I'm ready to hammer.

[Aquanim]

Bleh. Sorry Thor. Still can't work out why you wanted to lynch Keyser over Kain, though.

VOTE: KainTepes

[Aquanim]

@Ircher

:

But not two strong ones.

...
2. How do you know he's a strong investigative already?
...

I'd like to see an answer to this.

[Aquanim]

Assuming Kein is telling the truth, then Mafia MUST have a roleblocker or something similar. I actually thinking Kein is telling the truth -- Mafia have no need for a cop & why fakeclaim Odd-Night Cop?
...

Odd Night Cop + Gunsmith = OP
...

[Aquanim]

@Boonskiies

: You should not take a shot tonight - going to MYLO tomorrow if you miss would be very, very bad. I want another day to work with.

[Aquanim]

In Mini 1755, your argument was "I do too many scummy things so I must not be scum." Are you saying that's also your defense now? Do you want me to point out some glaringly obvious errors in your gameplay if you're actually town? Like, to start with, not basing POE on a complete supposition about Day 1 wagons? Usually POE works better with facts.

What are the differences between Ircher's play in this game and in 1775 which make you think Ircher is scum in this game?

[Aquanim]

This is my worst town game ever.....

You have defended town all game and shown hesitation on all the main miss-lynch wagons (me, GuyFawkes, Thor).
That is not "worst town game ever" - that is scum who knows who is town, or town having a great game.

Show me your "trying to save town" with a solid push on scum and I will unvote. I do not like your reasons for wanting me or Kain Tepes dead.

Scum can easily defend town. Your random mason defence of GuyFawkes on D1 was weird, and your random tangent counter wagon on BBT D2 was weird too.

I'm pretty sure Titus was paraphrasing Boonskiies here.

[Aquanim]

...

What are the differences between Ircher's play in this game and in 1775 which make you think Ircher is scum in this game?

I'm not sure what you're asking here. Ircher's play in 1775 made him an easy mislynch -- but you seem to be suggesting I should forgive obviously-scummy behavior because "he's played like this before," when I would suggest that I would lynch anyone (and probably Ircher specifically A LOT) if they behaved in this fashion. I'm not going to give him a pass just because he plays scummy in every game.
...

So are you saying there aren't any significant differences you see from the last game you played with Ircher, in which he was town?

[Aquanim]

...
Occam's razor, Boonskies is a scum-aligned tracker that saw Thor visit the dead player, then had a crazy idea. He started with a watcher claim on the night's victim, which is safe if he was tracked, then switched to a vig claim on the night's victim, which is ALSO safe if he was tracked. He was hoping 2 players visited the dead player.

Boonskiies claimed to have shot Ircher, not Slandaar, and TellTaleHeart confirmed that she stopped Boonskiies' shot going through. I don't think TTH ever said whether she JK'd Boon or Ircher, though.

Also, if he actually tracked Thor to Slandaar, how would claiming to have watched Slandaar be safe (since he would have actually visited Thor)?

[Aquanim]

I still think Ircher is town. I'm much less sure about Titus... but Kain is a far better lynch than either.

- JK/Gunsmith/X-shot Vig/Odd-night Cop as town PRs doesn't sound balanced. Even if it were somehow balanced by scum having a large amount of power, the game would be incredibly swingy and based almost entirely on PR outcomes.

- Kain's day 1 play has not become any less scummy:

...
A combination of both - what of him I have read is little, but it is not particularly screaming town or scum to me.
Why, is there part of him I should read that would give me a town/scum vibe on him?
You also didn't answer my question to you - asking your read of him. Why not?
...

I wanted to know where you were at first.

Why I think KainTepes is mafia

- #129 looks like Kain is hiding behind it being early in the day to avoid discussing his scumreads. Considering that in Kain's completed towngame he voted for scum an hour in and said he was frusturated nobody followed him, he claims to be "a VERY AGGRESSIVE player" as town, and in his towngame he in fact had some fidelity to his early reads despite resistance, I don't buy this.

- The arguments Slandaar and TTH made starting here.

- Kain pretended in #206 not to have read the thread, to dodge talking about the points Slandaar and TTH made about him. I don't believe that he (or anyone) would make that post if they hadn't read the thread (he also claimed not to have read the thread in #219), and I don't believe that a townie having read the thread would dodge like that (unless there were some underlying plan, which I've seen no sign of). I've already been over this at length.

- There is nothing redeeming about the reads Kain has made, and I don't see any coherent town thought process behind his switching from one to the next. I think there should be one if he's capable of these observations:

THIS is TERRIBLE.... BBT LOOKS SO MUCH MORE INACTIVE THIS GAME THAN IN ALL THE GAMES WHERE HE IS TOWN,, I WILL NOT GIVE HIM ANY MORE CHANCES..............

VOTE: BLUE BLOODED TOFFEE

...
too many people suddenly interested in keyser,, feels OPPORTUNISTIC

None of those points is explained away by Kain being a PR.

@everyone

: If you don't think Kain is scum, I want to know what in the above you disagree with.

- Ever since d2 pretty much everything Kain has said has been either:
* claiming that I'm scum, without any apparent interest in convincing anybody else or getting information
* totally misunderstanding how power roles work, which I am not buying.

If you think the person you're voting is more likely to flip scum than Kain, explain why. Otherwise, vote for Kain.

[Aquanim]

And so did I, but I was beginning to doubt myself that she was scum.
...

Why did you put Titus to L-1?

[Aquanim]

Keyser/Ircher/massive scum team?

I'm pretty sure both of the first two are scum, less sure on the third one.

I do not think Ircher and Massive are plausible scumpartners, I'm not buying their interactions as a bus.

You were townreading Ircher until halfway through d3 - what caused your read to change?

wrt Keyser: I still think Kain is probably scum, and therefore that Keyser's d1 wagon had at least one scum on it. Keyser's other interactions with Kain also seem unlikely from scum partners. Beyond pre-flip associations, I still gut-townread Keyser.

Can you make an explicit case for Keyser-scum for me? If Keyser is scum, there is something I am failing to see.

[Aquanim]

...
I can't read Kain for shit so I'm just gonna try and lynch the scum roleblocker and then wait for scum to kill him. What makes you think Kain is scum?

Nothing's changed since #1720.

Even if Kain is scum (which he probably isn't) that's only ONE unflipped vote in the entire DP. One. With numerous counter-wagons showing up all over the place. I'm not sure how you're missing what I'm trying to say here Aqua.

tl;dr: I am a long way from convinced that you are town.

Stop using pre-flip associatives because your bias that Kain must be scum is clearly clouding your ability to read Keyser. Everything I said about Keyser on D1 still applies now only now we have a lot of additional information (see above) that shows Keyser is very likely to be scum here.

I'll go back and look, but I didn't like any of your d1 arguments at the time.

[Aquanim]

I mean, it's pretty obvious from your post that you thought massive was the only person who could be scum off the wagon.

So, when you deny that, it's a flat out lie.

I'm not buying this line of argument, BBT. The argument for Massive was based on the

hypothesis

that there would be one scum off the Thor wagon. Keyser's apparent certainty was based on that hypothesis.

If

the hypothesis holds,

then

Massive is probably scum - but Keyser was uncertain since the hypothesis may not actually hold.

[Aquanim]

VT

[Aquanim]

Setup:

1x Town Odd Cop (Kein)
1x Town 1S Vig (Boon)
1x Town Gunsmith (Thor)
1x Town JK (TTH)
1x Mafia RB (???)
1x Mafia Encryptor? (??? - Seems kinda common nowadays)

This setup was reviewed for balance and that is balanced.
...

I'm not so sure that is balanced, and even if it is two investigates n1 is super swingy.

Does anybody have a reason to think Kain is town which is not related to his claim?

[Aquanim]

@aquanim - Don't you think our set-up needs a cop?

Gunsmith is a Cop in all but name and the details of which roles it gets false results for.

[Aquanim]

Gunsmith + RB + JK is actually weak:

Mafia can RB Gunsmith.
Town cannot protect the gunsmith (Nullified Follow the Cop)
Gunsmith can get false results.

That would be unbalanced for town as there are tons of ways scum/town can mess that up.

If Kain is scum, what makes you think there is a roleblocker?

[Aquanim]

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Gunsmith

tl;dr: returns guilty on Mafia, Vig, Cop. Does not return guilty on JK.

[Aquanim]

...
This is town BBT and I'm kinda irritated he didn't show up earlier.
...

I'd like to know what basis you have for that conclusion.

[Aquanim]

Mafia chat will be released in 24 hours after the mafia members PM me any posts they wish removed from the chat.

Uh... yeah, there's gonna be some of those. There are a lot of flames from me. I'll take out the unreasonable ones.

Things I don't understand about this game:

- Why Kain was not lynched on any of the four days
- Why anybody scumread Keyser ever
- Why Titus did that whole Mason thing instead of just asking Guy to claim
- Why nobody thought to ask "if Thor was the last to claim and is scum, why did he claim anything"
- Why nobody believed Thor would investigate Slandaar... seemed like an obvious investigate from him, really
- Why TellTaleHeart claimed Jailkeeper
- The size of BBT's ego

[Aquanim]

I was actually wondering if Boonskiies was a Voyeur who was hoping to match up the claimed PRs to the actions he saw.

[Aquanim]

As an addenum to #1931, I think I

do

understand why Titus was lynched, but there's a reason why there were literally no scum on that wagon.

Also, putting Titus to L-1 and the hammer were both not clever. The hammer more so.

[Aquanim]

EBWOP: literally no scum on the wagon, and literally no townies bar Titus herself off it.

[Aquanim]

I kind of expected the half-dozen replacements all into town slots to sink us.

[Aquanim]

Frankly, I have more sympathy for Ircher than Massive here. There are parts of his game which Ircher could improve with work - Massive just needs to give a shit about the game.

[Aquanim]

Okay, maybe that's not fair... but Massive did basically just tunnel Ircher with a post every couple of days all game. If that's at all mistakeable for his towngame, I would not want to roll town with him.

[Aquanim]

Getting me mislynched as town might be a good step towards proving what I've been saying all along...

Or it would demonstrate to YOU that you need to step up your game.

[Aquanim]

Ugh, sorry, I'm just salty. Not really specifically with Massive, but just with Mafia in general. I always regret having played the game, have never found it a pleasant experience. Now that I've finally rolled scum for the first time in a dozen games, and found out what it's like, I think I've had enough.

[Aquanim]

To make it clear, I think my issue does go deeper than the number of posts.

[Aquanim]

I will try and turn this into an actually applicable point to playing the game instead of me just ranting and flaming. From something I wrote in my wiki a while back:

Do not be afraid to mislynch. Do not feel too bad about misreading inactive and useless townies. You're far better off lynching a useless null than somebody who is maybe slightly more likely to flip scum, but who is active and will become more readable one way or the other with time. And if you encounter a townie who is making the thread toxic and unplayable... show no remorse. Just because they got handed a town PM doesn't mean they're helping you achieve the town wincon.

(That being said, lynching replacement-bait which has no interaction with any other slots is not ideal, though sometimes unavoidable.)

If you screwed up and lynched a useful townie out of paranoia or something, you should feel bad.

There are (almost) always going to be some players in the game which are inherently difficult to read due to inactivity, lack of regard for their wincon, etc. If the playerlist has like six or so (which I've seen in the past), town is pretty much screwed unless you get lucky - since you can't afford to lynch all of them.

This game actually had less than most - of the players post-replacement I would put Titus, Guy and Massive approximately in this category. BBT had shades of it too. I'm not sure how to classify Kain. Boonskiies sometimes is but in this game, not.

The particularly important point is that

these players will not become much easier to read as the game continues

. Lynching a player like Keyser day 1 is inherently a bad plan because given a few days he will either get shot or his alignment will become obvious. Probably the same for me in the other direction this game - my play in later days was quite catchable in ways my d1 play was not.

On the other hand, lynching players who will never be particularly readable is preferable. I believe I would have lynched Masquerade/GuyFawkes d1 as town this game without hesitation. Similarly Titus' play deserved to die, even if it didn't flip scum. Town was unfortunate in that they went for the two that didn't have red PMs, but I think they were both lynches that had to happen sooner or later.

tl;dr: Activity is not alignment-indicative, but

nevertheless activity should influence who you choose to lynch

. Your current read on a slot is NOT the only think which should influence your choice of lynch.

[Aquanim]

Oh, okay. You want to do this? Let's dance then.

I think the idea that some players aren't readable just isn't true.

Perhaps not, but then that's not actually what I said, is it? Some players are more readable than others. Some players play in a way which will make them more readable with time than others do. Do you disagree with either of those?

KeinTepes could be an example of such a player - he was seemingly impossible to read but some players correctly scumread him even on D1.

I didn't put KainTepes in my list, now did I?

Inactives should be replaced, not lynched. Lynching empty slots just sets the town back. If someone is coasting, you can always use the fact that they are coasting to get a read on them. When people don't post, more likely they have real life obligations and they misjudged the amount of time they could spare for mafia as happened with me.

In an ideal world everyone who is "inactive" would be replaced, yes. The world is not ideal.

I fundamentally disagree with the idea that you shouldn't be afraid to mislynch. Are you sure you are not just offering it as justification for mislynching people in the past and then feeling angry at yourself for not getting it right, and then shifting the blame so that you are not at fault?

Yes, I'm quite sure. If you're going to make an allegation like that about my character you might want to provide some evidence.

Titus for instance wasn't inactive in the least and most certainly didn't "deserve" to die.

Did you actually read the game?

You speak with some bizarre pride at mislynching other players when you are town. But the reality is that if you are mislynching players a lot, you just aren't very good at reading people.

I don't mislynch "a lot", but there's not a player on the site or anywhere that doesn't mislynch sometimes.

Re-analyzing the way you develop reads and improving from your mistakes is a better way to become a good player rather than hunting for justifications to quell your frustration at being wrong. If you pushed hard for a lynch, it can be frustrating to see them flip town - I've led my fair share of mislynches - but improving yourself is not about deflecting blame but understanding where you went wrong.

What makes you think I don't do that?

[Aquanim]

tl;dr: make an effort to understand what I actually said

[Aquanim]

I will attempt to clarify myself.

In an ideal world, as town I would lead only scum lynches. However, I am not perfect, and sometimes mislynch townies instead. My strategy, which has a pretty good success rate in terms of winning towngames, involves any mislynches that do happen being of less readable and valuable townies (the two typically go hand in hand).

If I were ever responsible for mislynching a player like Keyser, Thor or Slandaar I would feel really bad about my play, and would be sure I had worked out where I had gone wrong. I nearly mislynched Thor in my first newbie, and you'd better believe I deduced how it had happened, and went to some effort to not make the same kind of mistake twice. (No, I'm not telling. I wouldn't want anybody to know how to get a town-read from me.)

The fact of the matter is that some other players (like GuyFawkes, Titus and Massive in this game) I would feel less bad about mislynching. I will not let myself be discouraged from threatening such a player with a lynch by the fear that they might flip town. I will never be as certain about their alignment as I would be about a Keyser, but

the possibility I am wrong about such players will never go away, and therefore should not necessarily prevent me from making that lynch

.

[Aquanim]

EBWOP: The issue of evaluating my reads post-game and making improvements is

entirely

unrelated to the above, except insofar as such evaluation might move a player into my "will be able to read later, shouldn't lynch on a weak case now" bucket in future.

To put it another way; the day 1 lynch is the lynch for which you have the least information. It is preferable to lynch a player where more information won't help you read them much on day 1, and save deciding on players where more information is helpful for a day on which you have that information. You'll lynch townies day 1 sometimes, but

you were going to lynch townies day 1 sometimes anyway

.

And since you've already brought it up once... my strike-rate on scum day 1 with this idea is quite reasonable, so no, I'm not just post-hoc rationalising my screwups. Thanks for asking.

[Aquanim]

As a final, mostly unrelated note, I would say that many (if not most) of the games of forum mafia I've seen that ended in scum wins resulted from an overdose of either lurking, or hubris and ego in town. For what that's worth.

[Aquanim]

/thread

[Aquanim]

I agree that by postcount and in general Titus did more than Massive/Guy; my argument does apply less to Titus than to those two slots. My problem with Titus' play is what was actually said in those posts - Titus' d1 was all either begging off from doing much or the wildly anti-town Mason stunt, and a lot of play after that point was calling Ircher a "scumfuck", or similar. Putting aside my personal distaste for such invective, I don't think it was productive for town (I don't think it resulted in Titus or anybody else having a more accurate read on Ircher or anybody else), and there's nothing about it I think scum-Titus is incapable of.

I would like to think that if I were town in this game I would not have lynched Titus over Massive (or Kain), though we will never know. I've played with town-Titus before and (eventually) correctly townread her... though I admit I wasn't heartbroken when she got vig-shot.

A lesson to be learned from this game: Calling somebody a "scumfuck" (or your slur of choice) repeatedly does

not

make them scum, it does

not

convince other people, and it does

not

get you townread. Furthermore, it tends to aggravate both your target and other players who prefer a more respectful atmosphere, and they are less likely to give you the benefit of the doubt when it comes to considering their reads on you.