Open 722: Red Flag [Endgame]

[teacher]

/confirm

[teacher]

Will be online in about 3 hrs. Sorry for AFK.

[teacher]

Holy crap, 1 day of RL and I have 8 pages to read. Going to catch up and then post. Sorry for being AFK. (posting while on page two ).

[teacher]

Ok. Im jumping in somewhat late and at 190 (so not addressing anything after). Here are a few thoughts.

1. Ive played online before, but am only in one other (active) game here. This site's meta is soemwhat new to me, especially this game with hella short posts and brief analysis. I say that as intro because my newbness may strike you as off, and I may miss somethings due to the meta not being familiar.

2. I really want to like Fumuki and CFJ, as they have offered substantive posts advancing info, and fumuki seems like someone willing to do homework in player's histories. But I scumread Fumuki, and by extension CFJ. The read is because of 73 - a repeat townread of CFJ (first one in 56) at a time when CFJ isnt being actively sus'ed. Just seems too buddy-buddy for a role where you actually dont know anything. Plus I had a slight sus of CFJ 57 "dont talk mafia strat," as that could avoid discussion outing the strat they are playing by.

3. As a result of those reads, I townread BBT. I also like Creatures reads, and so them. (side note, I rarely look left to see gender so use they/them alot).

4. More nullish reads on Kill and Hiraki. I dont see Mafia being as super agro as Kill is being. I get Hiraki's criticism of Kill's vote, but dont see much else coming out of them.

5. I see a potential contradiction in Pisskop's frownie face at Creature's 48 immediately followed by a desire to talk about mafia kills at 53. Maybe Im overinterpreting an emoji tho.

6. Action - can you explain the townread on Northside?

7. Brie/WGuertz -- need more participation to have views.

[teacher]

. If you disagree with me you can say why though...

Thanks for your post, and the correction of AD. TBH, it doesnt change my skim, but theres probably pages and pages to go in the days, and my reads will certainly change. I also didnt like your wagon vote if you want to explain that. As for your own question, I think you answered it. Maf will likely figure it out anyway, and I view all chatter as good chatter, so dislike discouragement of it. (that said, even in my other game I have seen that other players just come at this question differently so I dont put much weight on it, just my personal idiosyncrazy.

[teacher]

Again a lot of activity to catch up. Ive read it, but I havent analyzed it. (whoever called me a mech/anal player is right. I build two spreadsheets every game, one for post notes and one for relationships). I will post updated anal in about 12 hours. My pattern, for what its worth, is to read at random times, but to set aside one specific time each day to really cogitate on it. RL is busy atm, so I missed that time today.

[teacher]

So I have indeed dramatically updated my analysis. I still want more participation from Brie, PK, and WG before I share on them. To increase pressure for now, I will VOTE: Pisskop. The following discussion is by player slot, in line with my notes:

1. Creature - You claim your oneliners have alot of content, but Im not seeing it. In 319, you say you have two suspects, but you need more than that in this game. As best I can tell, youve towned everyone else but WGeurtz (inactive slot) and CFJ. I am particularly interested in your townread of pisskop, 133. Care to explain?

nullread

.

2. Fumuki-san - You have been by far the most active poster. But you have shared precious few reads, other than interpreting your votes. Style seems LAMISTy, while not actually PROVIDING info (certainly have been asking questions, and detailing some meta behind them). Really dont like the active concealing of your reasons behind the kill vote. On balance, still

scumlean

.

3. Teacher - obvious dirt bag.

4. Hiraki - not much content, but declared V/LA. Not digging the complete tunnel on Kill, but like your town reads and when you have claimed them. Hoping for more participation, but for now

townlean

.

5. Pisskop - too low activity to really read. But what is there suggests following thread and discussion. Seems active lurking and

scum

.

6. Action - Like your reads, and like when youve gotten them. I appreciate your explanations for them, even if I dont always agree with it. Would like for you to share views on more slots, please?

townlean

7. Kill - I wish that you would explain your reads, as it helps provide more information and allows a defense. Am particularly wondering about your progression on CeeJay. That said, I like that youre sharing all of them, and that you have changed them as often as you have. Youre an experienced enough player that I think some of the contradictions I have seen between reads and posts is actually AI town, as scum you wouldnt let them be caught this easily.

town

.

8. CeeJay - through 208, I was sus'ing you. But that post provided good analysis that I could grok. I disagree with 219, because providing reads could be helpful associational data in later days. Also,248 ("dont post list") and 254 ("heres my list"), seem a bit contradictory, but Im not going to hold it against you because, as stated, I like this info. Overall,

null

9. WGeurtz - nothing.

10. BBT - going over it again made me realize how little content youve posted. You called out Fumuki (whom I also sus), but concealed the reason, and since then havent come back. Surely the game has advanced enough now that you can share your reasoning? Or thoughts on other players?

null

11. North -- V/LA with a townie entrance.

townlean

.

12. CFJ -- You have provided reads, reasoning, and information regarding TheBrie. I really liked 135. I disagree with your 216, as I think town wants flexibility too since they come into the game with no information. But you seemed to recognize this in 286 - a contradiction between posts that Im not going to hold against you, but point out. Bottom line, advancing the game is

townlean

13. Brie -- The reasons for people voting you seem silly. But you arent providing me any particular reason to defend you either. Get involved.

Null

[teacher]

meaningful question to the slots you want more info, question motives in recent posts

TBH, this feels misreppy. In case you missed it, the reads list had questions for most of the people I want to question. In case they missed it too:

@Creature: Why town Pisskop in 133?

@Fumuki: What are your reasons on Kill? You say you had posted them...All I see is 272 Hiraki and recent posts; 276 I dont have to explain. 279 did provide some reasons, but I disagreed with them. For example, you questioned why his lists didnt have Brie on it. But they were listing PoE (process of elimination), so including their current vote doesnt seem necessary (but my second game and I dont know the meta on this, I just dont see non-inclusion as error). The whole cop thing struck me as an obv joke that again you were trying to overblow. Bottom line, I wanted to you to explain again. As has been discussed before (in the context of you answering questions put to others), sometimes it is useful to get people to repeat themselves.

@Action - please broaden out and provide views on more slots.

*PEdit: No, I am indifferent to Brie, and could join later. Just dont want to up a wagon now when theres 3 slots essentially not participating and so alot more info to be gotten.

@BBT - whats your reasoning on Fumuki?

[teacher]

teacher and thebrie seem to be related and most likely scum aligned

Responded just above, but misplaced the Pedit. Just pointing it out.

[teacher]

i'm now scum

This feels misreppy. She didnt say you were scum. In fact, she responded to Fumuki 369 by saying she had

considered

it, but stood by her town read because she "do[es] like the explanation for [Kill's] play."

@Kill:Fumuki and I have both asked for explanations from you. Could you give them, or link them if you feel like you have given before? Right now, I have a TvT feeling with you and Brie, but am open to being convinced Im misreading either.

[teacher]

VOTE: Kill L-2. Maybe that will get you not to quit but actually talk.

[teacher]

Been hard to explain reads because I couldn't get much engaged this game yet.

You were engaged enough to come up with a read, enough to post it, but not to explain it????

[teacher]

Is it that Kill was formerly my strongest townread, and Im voting them?

1. I townread them for contradictions, which can be a scumtell, but one I would not expect from as experienced a player as Kill.
2. I really dont like that you have had a pending question to explain their reads and play for multiple pages, and they won't do it. Even if town, its Badtown, as it deprives town of info.
3. I reread Brie's ISO. It was not as empty as I remembered. While the entrance is questionable, I see some helpful posts, questions, and actions. This also made me question Kill's tunnel on them.

There is more to answer this question, but Im only guessing at what your problem is anyway. If you want to explain the problem, Im glad to answer more fully.

*Pedit: The one read youve been asked about twice creature is Pisskop. So why not try to explain that one or change it if you have no justification for it.

[teacher]

this town is aids.

Good explanation in this post.

@Fumuki - not interested in your game. Think I know what it is. But its time for you too to start sharing instead of just steering.

[teacher]

if you know you could just answer.

Looks like we are at an impasse then. I still have my doubts about you so do not want to get into your game. If the goal was to point something out to me, I think Ive seen it. If it was to point something out to the board, you are going to have to carry your own water. If it was for you to get an assessment of my reading, well, I will continue to provide plenty of opportunities for you to assess that at other times.

[teacher]

Im just saying, you can answer it too. I probably will answer it when I post a readslist on Monday (if theres enough activity thats not me and you). But I dont get why you wont, if, as you say, the goal is being useful to town.

[teacher]

teacher prob mafia with thebrie btw.

feel like 1 deepwolf is going against brie for cred, too. i think max only 1 deepwolf tho whil other wolves are defending him hard or implicitly.

Feel free to explain anytime.

[teacher]

I dont think its Fumuki's only reason (see our interchange on contradictions in recent posts).

But its the second time Fumuki has gotten into the third slot of a bus, which is statistically the scummiest spot.

I also find the unvote on Kill particularly bizarre. Fumuki explained his vote as based on the lack of reasoning. No more reasoning has been coming, but hops off the bus as soon as it gains traction to L-2.

Im staying where I am, but Fumuki - why did you unvote?

[teacher]

I'll for now be holding back more detailed info from hopping off the wagon, but teacher-san, I didn't hop off as soon as it gained traction to L-2, I did hop off in the moment that a case scenario probability became too low.

Thats the second thing you're holding back from the board, friend. And re-Brie, I dont see the weekend description as contradictory to her sewing and reading habits. Im normally extremely v/la on weekends with my kids, but theyre away right now.

[teacher]

everyone else, stop pressuring fumuki before i fucking destroy yoh

Hi kill. Looks like you didn’t quit.

VOTE: Fumuki-san.

On that note, I’m offline for the rest of the day.

[teacher]

I love you CFJ and will sheep you for the rest of the day. The post above, along with your earlier play, has basically lock-towned you in my book. Youre the only one posting actual analysis and explanations. If we can get a town block moving, that will help the town, and Im glad to start it.

To respond to your questions/comments on my positions:

1. Re 397: I am null on Brie, as I said in my Friday reads post. Rereading the iso made me slight townlean, but not strong at all. This is why when I first engaged with Kill I asked for explanations and said I wsa open to being convinced either side of what I was then reading as TvT was scummy. I genuinely wanted to be convinced.

2. Re 440: I did use bus rather than wagon because I am scumming KTS, Fumuki, and Creature. I am in NO way wedded to those reads, and agree that confidence D1 (especially early day one) is not that helpful. Also, my read does not require that they each be scum, but is instead based on their individual play. In with this setup, I do think everyone should be looking for 4 scumreads. For KTS and Fumuki, I see it as scummy that they are refusing to explain analyses they clearly have performed. If they are town, its Bad!town to deny information and discussion. I especially dislike Fumuki's withholding of reasoning on his unvote, since the explanation for the original vote remained valid. (sidenote, while Fumuki is not sharing his own analysis, he certainly is steering discussion, which can either be townie or scum searching for the mislynch most likely to gain traction.)

[teacher]

VOTE: creature. Start of the CFJ sheep/block. L-3.

[teacher]

god teacher is such an obvious fucking wolf along with thebrie

I suppose it would be too much to ask for a case to defend myself against?

[teacher]

f i had a scum read right now id go on fumuki based on tone.

After the way he busted Brie, I dont think so.

I have been suss'ing Fumuki from the drop. So much so that my annoyance at KTS and Fumuki's playstyle has clouded my analysis and made me miss the obvious point he noted on Brie. I need to reread the game in a neutral mind, without getting annoyed at playstyles that do obviously draw information even if they are unfamiliar to me. I will be quiet today while I do that.

I will note that I want something from AD and BBT.

[teacher]

feel better here than any current wagons

Why not Brie? I know Im being silent and reading, but I found Fumuki's point compelling. Just curious why you dont.

[teacher]

Saying our and us when talking about the scum

The Our and us in the referenced quote are about the town, at least on my read. Why did you think they were referencing scum wincon?

[teacher]

So I am again re-evaluating, and doing this by re-reading ISOs in Alpha Order:

1. Action - I stand by 324,

townlean

. Hasnt come back since then except to promise (and not deliver) more activity. I dont hold weekend LA against people, as I will normally be in this boat. Thus, I will repeat 339 as well - please provide more views on more slots.

2. Archwing (vice wgeurtz) - Claims V/LA on entry. Provides creature and KTS town reads; fumuki scum based on tone.

null

due to lack of info;

scumlean

from PoE, not getting creature townread, nor fumuki tone?

3. BBT - Again, I stand by 324. Only two posts since then do not provide game-advancing content. Please detail the case on Fumuki (whether or not you still sus him).

null

due to lack of info;

scumlean

from PoE.

4. CFJ - As stated 464, has almost lock-towned himself with 463. Since my reads post 324, all subsequent content has scanned

town

.

5. Ceejay -- Like everyone else (CFJ, Fumuki, me), is looking for explanation from Kill. I also like the questions in 421 and 422, and the vote in 496.

Townlean

6. Creature -- Still not seeing game advancing content. Nor any answer to repeated questions from multiple players regarding 133. Vote of KTS 328 could be scum seeking to blend in on a wagon, 336 could be seen as seeking to accomplish its statement, 359 scumming Brie and KTS together strikes me as odd. Repeat statements (e.g., 458) of non-engagement is at the very best Bad!town, and more likely

scum

.

7. Fumuki -- I have sus'd him from the start. Even then, however, I noted advancing questions and genuine effort at game-solving. I like your early townread of CFJ 56, the analysis of CJ 95 186, the vote on Pisskop 206, the pressure on Kill for explanations 287. I really really really like 395 and 480. But my bottom line is that I genuinely do not understand this playstyle, and therefore am

null-town

.

*******

Real life rears its ugly head again. Kill is null; Id really like some explanations. Northside remains very slight townlean with low info. PK is in my scum PoE. Bottom line, in case this post is not clear, my current scummiest is creature, then Brie. Im holding the last two scum spots open for Kill (no explanations), Arch/BBT (low info), and possibly Fumuki (just not understanding).

[teacher]

SO my last was poorly concluded due to the rush of getting out. The bottom line is:
Reading scum: Brie, creature
Dissing from low activity and content: Arch, PK, BBT
Still open to, but view as less likely: North, Kill, Fumuki
Order within rows is intentional.

[teacher]

CJ in longer post. Didn’t get a chance to ISO Hiraki but pure gut was a slight townlean dating from the kill discussions in the 100s. On mobile.

[teacher]

Mobile Hiraki gets a

townlean

and is appropriately left of my lists in 563.

[teacher]

teachers entire analysis is bullshit

id day the same of yours, but still haven’t seen any.

[teacher]

I’ll try the toned down approach. Kill, pick any one of your “locktown” or “lockwolf” reads and try explaining it to us plebs? Please help the vulgar crowd understand your superior intellect.

[teacher]

Happy to sheep in line with my reads. VOTE: TheBrie

[teacher]

VOTE: TheBrie

L-2/

[teacher]

A few things on TheBrie not mentioned in 608. Two separate times she has been caught trying to pocket kill in ways that even she when pressed cant explain. See 311 to 363; Post 378 to 483.

Of course it would ping me, but 478 also seems off. As a newb, one thing I am always conscious of is matching the number of scumreads to the number of slots (see my immediately preceding 464, for example). Of course, early in the day I had more nulls than scums, but I dont think even my early posts (which had two scums in each) gave "very few" scum reads. Indeed, at this time Brie had only scummed two herself. Seems to be looking to build off Kill for mislynch. (478 also off for the reason CFJ already did mention - I backed up the scumreads across multiple posts, not just the one he cites. Quote +question for more details).

513 also seems off. Sure the reasoning for the unvote is there. But it is contrary to 308, where she said she was parking until she got a better read. After 308, she sus'd me, Fumaki, and CeeJay, but does not move to a scumread. At this point not voting/pressuring for info does not help town, but allows the flexibility scum want.

@Fumuki, as for TSTBS (my new abbreviation for too scummy to be scum), I dont buy it, and would feel comfortable lynching it as it certainly doesnt help town.

[teacher]

I don't have much to post but I atleast got fairly decent reads.

Care to explain [post]359[/[post], scumming Kill and Brie together. I can see one but not both.

[teacher]

It's possible for one of the scum to decide to go solo.

Solo is different from advancing the town's wincon, no?

[teacher]

and BBT

?

[teacher]

@Teacher, I already explained the read you're in doubt back there, I honestly have no desire to explain it again

Just to confirm, you are referring to 332.

As a more general note, Fumuki-san, I hope you dont get fully bitten by the LA-bug infecting this game. While I still have trouble sorting your playstyle and alignment, you have advanced the game almost alone in getting substantive information from the board, and from the metas. I for one truly appreciate it; even as I have been annoyed by it from moment to moment, it always rings truer upon reflection. The Brie contradiction is a great example. I found your style of pointing it out somewhat annoying and pedantic, but it would have taken me another day of separation from the board to realize it. So I hope you keep at it, and want to acknowledge it.

[teacher]

I take it were lynching between KTS and TheBrie today

Thats my read from the early activity, though Id push for consideration of one of the low-posting slots (e.g., Arch) once more information is gained as well. Since you were one of the earlier CFJ town-reads, and I see you as town as well, I wonder what you think of joining a block?

[teacher]

Wow that was a flurry of posts to respond to:

@Fumuki-san 637. I somewhat agree. I definitely agree on getting pressure on more positions. But I disagree on not lynching an obvious scum. Sure, scum can kill them, leaving the town free. But getting to 2 is as simple as 1+1, so I find the tradeoff (a free night for town) to be more expensive than your post suggests.

@Fumuki-san 639. Im in for reading one meta. But to be clear, my question was to CJ, not creature. CJ is higher in my townreads than creature, but creature's recent posts have made me inclined that way as well. Is there a reason you redirected it (not that I mind)?

@Brie 640 "that slip" has been explained multiple multiple times as town, and your misread. Did you miss this? Do you not care? Or do you disagree? The post as a whole feels like trying to pocket the board. You need four scum reads, but you only have 0.25.

@Fumuki-san 641. Excellent and somewhat distressing response. Excellent because I didnt expect you to want to be in a block given your play style (why I hadnt asked). Distressing because of the doubt in CFJ. He was the early townread whose repeat made me doubt you. What has changed for you?

PEDIT: AtE - Appeal to Emotion

[teacher]

@TheBrie: Id also be interested in a defense/response to 608 and 621. I know you said you tend not to care about early wagons, but this is twice that you've made L-2 and if town it would help the board if you can cogently defend some of the issues.

[teacher]

@Fumuki-san - Im going to be signing off in a bit, so if you want to give me an assignment, do it in the next 20 please, or it may have to wait a day.

[teacher]

I think I agree with 651 entirely, other than the strength of the Creature read. Its just a different way of wording things.

I agree Brie isn't Obv!scum, which is why I asked her to defend herself. But I dont have a problem lynching today if the defense is totally vapid/other issues are noted. I (as stated) am fully in support of pressuring new slots. But we are lynching someone today (I assume), and whoever we lynch it should be the best scum case.

Regarding Creature's unvote; Im inclined to see him as towny (as stated). But with more caution than you express. The reads seem to be somewhat regurgitations of earlier points/posts (Northside came from CFJ 408, for example). I also can think of scum explanations for the unvote that are less complicated than you suggest, such as a simple realization that it was a flashwagon.

Fair enough on townread/lean. I am aware of the possibility CFJ is scum, but he is also posting his own (detailed) analyses that have thus far been sound. If he is the deepwolf doing this, it still helps town in a LA game, and later misdirection will be harder to sustain given the quality of the early analysis. And I appreciate the comment on me. Youre not doomed yet.

[teacher]

Assignments taken. As for those to give - Im most suspicious of BBT and Arch out of the lurkers. But I trust you enough to best assign yourself.

[teacher]

reassignments taken.

[teacher]

reassignments taken.

Hoi-lee crap. They each have 70+ games. I aint reading it all. I dont mind doing an analysis of five games each (most recent regardless alignment, plus two most recent scum and two most recent town). I also dont mind doing it another way that you suggest entailing approximately equal work. But I sure as heck aint diving more, and dont want to mislead you into thinking I would.

[teacher]

I agree creature by meta seems towny here. What is your suggestion?

[teacher]

Im no longer lock wolf. At least the shift was as unexplained as the original read.

[teacher]

What he said, but not what he meant.

[teacher]

Thats not who I was suggesting, Fumuki-san.

*Pedit: Nor that. Doesnt KTS flip provide info on the most slots (Hiraki AND Brie simultaneously)? And serve to get rid of the random yelling too?

You seem to be suddenly interested in Hiraki for reasons I dont grok, other than potentially OMGUS. I.E., if the Kill fight felt staged, why not call it staged 400 posts ago?

[teacher]

Sounds good. Im going to get some sleep. My vote stays where it is for the night. Im probably just going to continue sheeping CFJ. I'll be interested in seeing his reaction to your Hiraki case. I dont know the Kill-Hiraki meta, but Im not seeing Hiraki as strong scum just from his ISO. If your Hiraki scum read depends on the fight with Kill being forced, it would have seem to me to have to go both ways, and so equally incriminate Kill. As for morale, Im not sure what throwing out reads without explanation despite repeated requests (and not just from me and you) does to improve morale. Indeed, I think Hiraki's tunnelhunting with analysis is better for the town than the Kill's without the same. But Ive been being too addicted to this site and too close to this game, so need to actually analyze. These are just the off-the-cuff reactions.

[teacher]

DO YOU GUYS UNDERSTAND NOW?

so much to respond to since I signed off, but I’m going to have to actually work most of the day. This one line basically encapsulates it all for me though. I perfectly well understand you, just disagree. Perhaps it is you who needs to be more flexible, understanding that there is reasonable ground for disagreement. (Same as to the Hiraki/Kill, I sinply disagree as to who is more helpful to town especially with an announced v:la and when Kill makes me want to play less not more.).

[teacher]

It's possible for one of the scum to decide to go solo.

Solo is different from advancing the town's wincon, no?

also, Fumuki-San, with the benefit of some distance/sleep, this quote seems really contrary to town!creature meta. He does try to gamesolve as town, but he is a very smart player. I suppose I can’t see the motivation to hardbus day one, even to gain Towncred, because that gets us halfway to the wincon early. What say you?

[teacher]

EVEN IF SHE'S BY A MIRACLE SCUM.

Towncase her please. Seriously, make the case that what she has said comes from town. I cant see the lazy argument because she tried to post reads and explain them. If its the TSTBS case, we are going to have to disagree whether thats a thing. And regardless its Bad!town. Again, Im not saying we shouldnt pressure other slots. Im also not saying I cant be persuaded to vote elsewhere. But you're wrong to claim that "no one is even trying to redirect wagons" 711, as that is exactly what youre doing, and to a lesser extent northside, BBT.

Your strategy posts also seem bullet-riddled to me. Essentially you seem to be arguing for a lower-information/lurker lynch, rather than a higher-suspicion lynch, D1 because (a) scum could leave town alone N1 and/or (b) high-suspicion can be caught D2 anyway. But your logic doesnt follow. For example, this:

if we don't hit scum, 4/7, and d3 without hitting it again, 4/5.

contradicts point A. It assumes scum does NOT leave town alone. And I think they are right. Because scum voting power becomes so dominant so fast, I think scum has to kill town tonight even if town leaves a big honking suspect flapping in the wind. Relatedly, this:

however here by day 2 if we don't hit scum today, that advantage is over.

Is why I think we have to kill our best suspect rather than expect mafia to do us the courtesy. I do think lynching even brie gets harder at 7:4. Id rather try to organically build a new scumwagon at 8:3 than try to force even Brie at 7:4.

My bottom line: lynch the best suspect at end of day. Right now thats Brie to me. But we are nowhere near end of day yet.

Finally, on our discussion of KTS v. Hiraki: I think we understand each others positions, and simply disagree. Which I can respect. But just in case I havent made my view clear - this is what I disagree with:

2. He goes for blood in his scum reads
3. He goes for blood in defending his town reads

He may go for blood, but he doesnt draw it. He doesnt provide any case whatsoever. He simply drones on, repeats himself again, and says AIDS. Hiraki argues. Agree or disagree with the arguments as you will, but at least they are there to actually convince people. (also I think KTS at least shades more slots, even if doesnt lock them). Im open to revisiting this if Hiraki doesnt continue on his current course of the LA, but thats my $0.02 for now.

[teacher]

who do you want to lynch teacher?

I agree we have lurkers, las, and replacement lurkers. But Im going to echo CeeJay, and repeat myself from days ago: Its time for you to share some reads. OK, Hiraki is reading scummy. I assume from our conversations that Im reading townie. Who else is pinging you either way? Ive provided mine. You, not so much.

[teacher]

Lets go Arch then. Because Im not agreeing on Hiraki and CFJ at this point, but do agree on the desire to pressure. (AD prodged, so expect action regardless.)

PEDIT: Im also open to a triple on BBT.

[teacher]

And I already explained the benefits of Hiraki flip nonetheless.

What are the side benefits of the Hiraki flip now? In other words, you say this

Plus, now that I noticed a KTS flip doesn't make Hiraki clear at all to be honest.

Can you explain to me how a KTS flip doesnt shade Hiraki, but a Hiraki flip shades KTS? Im sure you have a case, I am just not getting it. If you just think Hiraki is scummier than KTS, thats fair enough, but I dont see that as "benefits."

[teacher]

I'll be not posting starting from tomorrow for around 2 days probably

I thought you promised a game solve around tomorrow. IF youre going away close to the deadline, want to share it now?

I honestly dont know what to make of you. Like I said, I appreciate you though. I hope you have an enjoyable 2 days doing that thing you do (vague reference to rando Tom Hanks movie....even I dunno).

[teacher]

Mod - Can we get a 24 hour extension. Its been low activity til now. And I will be v/la this weekend, when the deadline may spur life. In general, Id love for any weekend deadline to kick to Mondays, as I will be V/LA "babysitting" most weekends. But the case is more exacerbated this particular weekend by the prods, prodges, and v/las so far. I say this with respectful acknowledgement of your prior position.

.

[teacher]

Wait, did Kill actually promise he would "explain in detail"?! (the interrobang needs to catch on more. And I just might have to get off the wagon to see it.)

[teacher]

But I think I have a good suggestion to who we should lynch today, do you guys want to hear it?

Never opposed to hearing things.

[teacher]

Thanks for the case Fumuki-san, and happy travels. This is a wagon I could join. What say you CFJ?

[teacher]

Long post coming. VOTE: Kill.

[teacher]

nails it.

.I had thought it several times. But I couldnt write it -- It wouldnt have been believable coming from me, when Brie and Kill have both scummed me (and Northside underlined that). But you nailed it, including down to the strength of the reads. And theres more in each column. Ill try to be brief. But I will suggest and VOTE: Kill as I think it is far more informative than just Brie.

Kill + Brie

Kill has an largely unexplained hunger for Brie's blood. Only once (despite today's promise) has ever articulated any reasons besides the entrance, and those reasons (505) are just plain lies. It accuses "him" of pushing "villagers" and being on "wagons." But Brie's then-current vote dated from RVS (19), she had already towned that vote (196) and she STILL has not pushed anyone else, with no scum reads (640). Just as Bizarrely, brie TWICE towns Kill

as having good analysis

(while he was hunting her), only to be forced to say TWICE she was full of shit when pressed. (See the top of my (621) for the summary.

KTS + Fumuki

This is the most troubling part of Fumuki's behavior. Not only does he derail the KTS wagon, but does so when his reasons for joining remained facially valid. (see 440, 441). Moreover, his explanation for trying to steer to Hiraki is that it provides info on Kill; but he argues Kill doesnt provide info on Hiraki -- such a one way rachet is implausible, especially if the read is based on how scum would play together (741, 742). Fumuki gives his reasoning in the second links above, but I dont buy them. By the way, given the Kill-Brie above, I have no idea how Fumuki can plausibly suggest Hiraki (someone he accuses for LURKING) has "more associatives" than KTS -- Fumuki making contradictory arguments from a supposedly close-reading player. On the reverse side, KTS pretty routinely towns Fumuki without reasons, only changing during what could well have been a staged fight.

Fumuki + Brie

Fumuki contradicts himself about his Brie vote. As CFJ notes, he answers my first question about being third on a bus by explaining that it is for "pressure" but

not

"in hope of lynching." ((195). But I ask him about it when he does it again (on creature now). And then he says that he "certainly ain't out of intent" to lynch (441). So which is it -- Third votes are to lynch, or arent they? Certainly they dont seem to be, Fumuki ensures his own quick exit once wagons gain traction. (206 - first to exit the first Brie wagon; 427 - first to e,xit the Kill wagon right after L-2, first to exit the creature wagon IIRC). And he is openly and honestly trying to stall any and all Second Brie Wagon, with the logic that she is scum who can be nabbed later?!

******

Of course, I also agree with your comment that this may be "carried away." I mean, how likely is it that 75% of the scum are in the top half of the activity? And how likely is it that scum Actively busses a teammate by pointing out the first contradiction (as Fumuki did to Brie). I also do buy some portion of Fumuki's case on Northside. For example, I believe our mod and player are the same (204). The Mod has been active enough to put "-" on most pagebottoms. Thus, the player's explanation that they havent caught up and just magically appeared when suspected (773) seems staged. It also places them in a place to try to missteer me to someone I suggested (BBT), while also undermining me by sussing -- 776.

Bottom line, I think this setup encourages 2 lurkers and 2 active misdirectors. I see that potential team entirely as named in this post. But I can also see a team involving CFJ, CJ, and some of the totally empty slots. I dont want to kill Fumuki for the same reasons Im not interested in CFJ - active, detailed posting helps town even if it comes from scum, because it offers information (most of this and CFJ's post are based on Fumuki). The best lynch on the board I see is Kill. It can entirely derail this theory or potentially validate it. It provides the most associative data (Brie, Fumuki, Hiraki), plus has the added policy benefit of getting rid of a style I find personally annoying. Hence the vote above. I am equally comfortable lynching Brie (theres a wagon there already), and potentially open to Northside.

Id like for the empty spots to be more active before a lynch occurs, which is why I hopped off the wagon. I hope the wagon will switch to Kill if they find this convincing. But I also hope we force info from those slots before night comes, so dont want to advance to L-2 without getting reactions from Creature, AD, BBT, and Arch.

PEDIT: @ Fumuki - you said "Do you seriously think that scum isn't manipulating things here?" The only people trying to actively steer are Kill, you, me, and CFJ, in that order. IF scum is active and you know your orientation (and have townleaned me), its 50/50 Kill or CFJ. So why not Kill?

[teacher]

I'm honestly getting tempted to hammer TheBrie

I dont think a hammer is out there any more.

[teacher]

I have no idea how Fumuki can plausibly suggest Hiraki (someone he accuses for LURKING) has "more associatives" than KTS -- Fumuki making contradictory arguments from a supposedly close-reading player

@Fumuki, please consider this an explicit question for you. I will flag post V/LA too, as it is entirely contrary to your playstale.

[teacher]

KTS remains town

Why?

[teacher]

Mod - the VC attributes Fumuki to Hiraki. Could you also clarify any relationship you have to northsidestory the player?

[teacher]

@Mod - Please reword this any way you would like to enable an answer the thrust of the question. Can you respond to the assertion in 204 or otherwise state whether northsidestory is an alt?

[teacher]

@Arch, Brie, Creature: not voting is not helping at this point. Particularly the latter two should be able to respond to something in the last 4 pages and a vote.

@BBT -- CJ is a vanity wagon that will not gain traction unless you can provide a damn compelling case. What is it? And why does it outweigh the Brie/Kill wagons in your view?

[teacher]

@Mod - Please reword this any way you would like to enable an answer the thrust of the question. Can you respond to the assertion in 204 or otherwise state whether northsidestory is an alt?

Northsidegal - since you arent the mod, presumably you can answer these? between the alt and the writing style, I suspect Fumuki is right, but given that CFJ has reraised the question (after Brie asked it), it only seems fair for someone who KNOWS the answer to provide it.

[teacher]

@Mod - Please reword this any way you would like to enable an answer the thrust of the question. Can you respond to the assertion in 204 or otherwise state whether northsidestory is an alt?

Northsidegal - since you arent the mod, presumably you can answer these? between the

avi

and the writing style, I suspect Fumuki is right, but given that CFJ has reraised the question (after Brie asked it), it only seems fair for someone who KNOWS the answer to provide it.

EBWOP in bold

[teacher]

@teacher I don't think this will help us in solving who's who

I dont disagree. But since it has been raised and discussed a few times, we may as well put it to bed. There are enough posts trying to scumsort that I dont see the harm in both. But I dont plan on posting again on this issue.

[teacher]

@CeeJay - then onto the real herrings: Why Brie over Kill? CFJ concedes Kill is more informative. If you switch, he will likely follow, and Kill will have more votes than Brie at that point.
PEDIT: Thanks Mod.

[teacher]

This is a pretty sudden playstyle change

I concur. Were it not for 505 being patently false, and Fumuki having previously (before your case) announced a v/la, I would be viewing this shift as a good reason to go to him rather than kill. So...
@Kill: You promised a detailed case for us chucklefucks. Can you please explain 505?

[teacher]

I have no idea how Fumuki can plausibly suggest Hiraki (someone he accuses for LURKING) has "more associatives" than KTS -- Fumuki making contradictory arguments from a supposedly close-reading player

@Fumuki, please consider this an explicit question for you. I will flag post V/LA too, as it is entirely contrary to your playstale.

MY DEAR CAPS-LOCK GOD. YOURE OBVIOUSLY STILL HERE, AND OBVIOUSLY NOT ANSWERING MY PRAYERS.

[teacher]

hmmmm, considering ALL the votes on you have been on the Brie, and include 3 you have previously townleaned (fumuki, CFJ, CJ (169), your "super scummy" seems flailing. I was like a kid at Christmas waiting your case when you promised it. But this footbleeding thing will obviously prevent you from answering..... Or is it the noose.

[teacher]

Seriously @Kill, if you will just admit you have been fluffing yourself all game, and didnt care about getting the details right at all, that would make at least me seriously debate a Fumuki lynch. His contradictions are deeper than yours, and the association with Brie actually stronger. For me, today's lynch is down to between the two of you, and Fumuki's sudden bloodlust is pointing towards him.

[teacher]

I have no idea how Fumuki can plausibly suggest Hiraki (someone he accuses for LURKING) has "more associatives" than KTS -- Fumuki making contradictory arguments from a supposedly close-reading player

@Fumuki, please consider this an explicit question for you. I will flag post V/LA too, as it is entirely contrary to your playstale.

MY DEAR CAPS-LOCK GOD. YOURE OBVIOUSLY STILL HERE, AND OBVIOUSLY NOT ANSWERING MY PRAYERS.

This is not a wall. You wont answer? Or you cant answer?

[teacher]

Kill, in the 15 minutes, can you justify 505 as being in any way accurate as to Brie pushing villagers, plural, or being on "every wagon," plural?

[teacher]

Prayers for a speedy recovery. Youre right that I shouldnt have made that joke. Im going to go read Brie again and compare to your 505.
@Fumuki - any answer on the "associatives"?

[teacher]

thebries pushes are me creature and fumuki

KTS's explanation for 505 dont hold up. Brie was not pushing KTS, she was actively towning him ([post]311[/[post], [post]365[/[post], [post]378[/[post], [post]483[/[post], see also [post]640[/[post]). Her strongest push at this time was CeeJay ([post]479[/[post], [post]493[/[post]).

My bottom line - Hit this today, but after the LAs post. If flips scum, hit Fumaki. If flips town, look at (CJ or Brie/Fumaki again).

[teacher]

thebries pushes are me creature and fumuki

KTS's explanation for 505 dont hold up. Brie was not pushing KTS, she was actively towning him (311, [post]365[/[post], [post]378[/[post], [post]483[/[post], see also [post]640[/[post]). Her strongest push at this time was CeeJay ([post]479[/[post], [post]493[/[post]).

My bottom line - Hit this today, but after the LAs post. If flips scum, hit Fumaki. If flips town, look at (CJ or Brie/Fumaki again).

Links fixed. End Spam.

[teacher]

thebries pushes are me creature and fumuki

KTS's explanation for 505 dont hold up. Brie was not pushing KTS, she was actively towning him (311, 365, 378, 483, see also 640). Her strongest push at this time was CeeJay ([post]479[/[post], [post]493[/[post]).

My bottom line - Hit this today, but after the LAs post. If flips scum, hit Fumaki. If flips town, look at (CJ or Brie/Fumaki again).

Links fixed. End Spam.

[teacher]

thebries pushes are me creature and fumuki

KTS's explanation for 505 dont hold up. Brie was not pushing KTS, she was actively towning him (311, 365, 378, 483, see also 640). Her strongest push at this time was CeeJay (479, 493).

My bottom line - Hit this today, but after the LAs post. If flips scum, hit Fumaki. If flips town, look at (CJ or Brie/Fumaki again).

Links fixed. End Spam.

[teacher]

So the board has been spammed tonight after the scum team was made. For those looking for a TL/DR from an obviously biased participant:

CFJ posted the case on a Kill-Fumaki-Brie scum trio: 806
I added in my own thoughts in the same line: 824[/[post]
Kill unsurprisingly defended without explanation, saying the town is AIDS and lynch Brie. [post]861 862
Fumuki provided a longer defense 812, but could not answer questions 867, and went to pushing for a lynch only to unvote within 30 mins 846877

I am at end of day on Kill, with tomorrow on Fumuki if Kill flips mafia, and (CJ/Brie) if he flips town.

[teacher]

EBWOP

So the board has been spammed tonight after the scum team was made. For those looking for a TL/DR from an obviously biased participant:

CFJ posted the case on a Kill-Fumaki-Brie scum trio: 806
I added in my own thoughts in the same line: 824
Kill unsurprisingly defended without explanation, saying the town is AIDS and lynch Brie. 861 862
Fumuki provided a longer defense 812, but could not answer questions 867, and went from pushing for a Kill lynch only to unvoting Kill within 30 mins 846 to 877

I am at end of day on Kill, with tomorrow on Fumuki if Kill flips mafia, and (CJ/Brie) if he flips town.[/quote]

[teacher]

Fumuki - if you want me to even remotely consider switching votes today, explain:
1. Why Kill's 505 is demonstrable lies, and the explanation equally wrong. (see 891).
2. Provide an answer to 867.
Tomorrow is irrelevant until the flip is made.

[teacher]

No, the original quote came from my post. This has nothing to do with CFJ. Its all me. But clearly you wont answer why you were accusing Hiraki of lurking, but at the same time said he had more associations than KTS, the most active player on the board.

[teacher]

Im going to make sure this stays on the last active page.

So the board has been spammed tonight after the scum team was made. For those looking for a TL/DR from an obviously biased participant:

• CFJ posted the case on a Kill-Fumaki-Brie scum trio: 806
  
• I added in my own thoughts in the same line, explaining why Kill's 505 and Fumuki's 742 were provable lies: 824
  
• Kill first defended without explanation, saying the town is AIDS and lynch Brie. 861 862. His laterattempt to explain 505 was also false. 891
  
• Fumuki provided a longer defense 812, but could not answer questions on 742 867, and went from pushing for a Kill lynch only to unvoting Kill within 30 mins 846 to 877

I am at end of day on Kill, with tomorrow on Fumuki if Kill flips mafia, and (CJ/Brie) if he flips town.

[teacher]

Hiraki, he showed up and instatly sheeped TheBrie wagon, if TheBrie wagon had scum fingers on it, Hiraki might be part of the scum team.

Y'all are really making this way too easy. Again, you answer on Hiraki is demonstrably false. He did not show up and "sheep" the Brie wagon. He showed up and voted Kill, while explicitly criticizing the Brie wagon as RVS and weak with scum (Kill and Fumuki) on it. 168. Seriously, thanks.

[teacher]

NVM, I see you are talking about Brie Wagon No. 2. Looking into this.

[teacher]

if TheBrie wagon had scum fingers on it, Hiraki might be part of the scum team.

This is somewhat of an answer, actually, so I will revise my summary of the night. Nonetheless, it is pretty demonstrably wrong. First, the primary drivers of the second Brie wagon were you first building an actual case and KTS's repetition -- i.e., the very people you say are not scum. CFJ at best was a secondary driver, with a secondary case. More importantly, the other people on that wagon were Kill (not an additional association for Hiraki), myself (who you had

just

townleaned), . Thus, the only associatives Hiraki had by 742 were: Kill, Action Dan, and CFJ. That cannot possibly be more than Kill, who had at leastHiraki, Brie, you, me, and Creature. So the statement is still false.

[teacher]

So the board has been spammed tonight after the scum team was made. For those looking for a TL/DR from an obviously biased participant:

• CFJ posted the case on a Kill-Fumaki-Brie scum trio: 806
  
• I added in my own thoughts in the same line, explaining why Kill's 505 and Fumuki's 742 were provable lies: 824
  
• Kill first defended without explanation, saying the town is AIDS and lynch Brie. 861 862. His later attempt to explain 505 was also false. 891
  
• Fumuki provided a longer defense 812, but refused to answer questions regarding 742 for two hours 867 and that explanation is also wrong 908

I am at end of day on Kill, with tomorrow on Fumuki if Kill flips mafia, and CJ if he flips town.

[teacher]

@Teacher, can you tldr town!Fumiki for me?

no. Because I’m believing he is scum. But the real real short of it other than 909 is that two “teams” are basically locked together - (Kill/funuki) and (cfj/ceejay). Interestingly, both teams suspect Brie. But I think we should flip Kill because I find that team far more suspect for a host of reasons, and if Kill flips town I will basically death tunnel CeeJay.

[teacher]

@Kill: in case you haven’t noticed, I play with explanations not insults. So you say I’m level 0? Ok. Give me the level one course.

Explain why 891 isnt fatal? Why CFJ’s attempt to start a second Brie wagon, and need to be persuaded off it even to you, sn’t very anti-meta if bussing? For the love of god reason with me. Or don’t, because you can’t, and are the scum I suspect.

[teacher]

@teacher, if you're here i'd like to talk to you. otherwise i'm gonna keep reading from where i'm at.

Arch I’m on mobile in subway. Desktop in any 30

[teacher]

can you pinpoint a moment/page/area where you saw scum!fumiki?

No, I honestly cant. It was always a possibility in my mind that gradually turned into a probability. Please note that for all links after the first bullet below, Fumuki has probably provided an answer that you can find in his iso near the same postnumbers, but I found his defenses to be an incomprehensible wordsalad (or, for the UK amongst us, a dogs breakfast).

• From my start 191, I am suspicious of Fumuki. That's because the playstyle can only be two things: A genuine gamesolver or an active misdirector.

[*]Genuine gamesolvers share their own info for the wisdom of the commons to assess, whereas active misdirectors only throw shade. As I note, through 324, Fumuki is really only doing the latter. (he towns people, including CFJ 3+ times, but is also hopping votes and suspicions).
[*]His interactions with Kill starting at 262 through 427 make him one of my most-active suspects. The cop thing and brie in Kill's list seems purely manufactured. The desire for explanation for Kill's reads is real and repeated. But its still real when Fumuki suddenly hops off the wagon as soon as it hits L-2 (see 440). (Fumuki also did his again last night).
[*]Likewise, 395, 407, and 410 bug me. He wants a case on Brie, but he doesnt want it to come from him. Again, misdirecting.
[*]Thus, I think you misread our interactions in the 600-700 range. At this point Im actively sussing him (see 464), and trying to draw information from him so I shade my read later 562 in the hopes of cooperation and put up 634 as well. I view the effort as successful: In 687 (if not earlier), Fumuki starts pushing a Hiraki wagon, and explains it 729 as (1) Hiraki lurking, (2) Hiraki+KTS=scumteam, and LATER (3) Hiraki offering more associatives 742. I point out that 1 and 3 are contradictory. Fumiki's answer is unpersuasive. 908.

Thats my scum!Fumaki case. But after last night, I am fully persuaded that there is either a (KTS Fumaki) team or an (CFJ CeeJay) team. So I want to flip one of the team that I find scummier. If KTS is scum, scum needs to kill Fumaki in order to avoid auto. If KTS is village, tomorrow's lynch is guaranteed scum.

[teacher]

EBWOP

can you pinpoint a moment/page/area where you saw scum!fumiki?

No, I honestly cant. It was always a possibility in my mind that gradually turned into a probability. Please note that for all links after the first bullet below, Fumuki has probably provided an answer that you can find in his iso near the same postnumbers, but I found his defenses to be an incomprehensible wordsalad (or, for the UK amongst us, a dogs breakfast).

• From my start 191, I am suspicious of Fumuki. That's because the playstyle can only be two things: A genuine gamesolver or an active misdirector.
  
• Genuine gamesolvers share their own info for the wisdom of the commons to assess, whereas active misdirectors only throw shade. As I note, through 324, Fumuki is really only doing the latter. (he towns people, including CFJ 3+ times, but is also hopping votes and suspicions).
  
• His interactions with Kill starting at 262 through 427 make him one of my most-active suspects. The cop thing and brie in Kill's list seems purely manufactured. The desire for explanation for Kill's reads is real and repeated. But its still real when Fumuki suddenly hops off the wagon as soon as it hits L-2 (see 440). (Fumuki also did his again last night).
  
• Likewise, 395, 407, and 410 bug me. He wants a case on Brie, but he doesnt want it to come from him. Again, misdirecting.
  
• Thus, I think you misread our interactions in the 600-700 range. At this point Im actively sussing him (see 464), and trying to draw information from him so I shade my read later 562 in the hopes of cooperation and put up 634 as well. I view the effort as successful: In 687 (if not earlier), Fumuki starts pushing a Hiraki wagon, and explains it 729 as (1) Hiraki lurking, (2) Hiraki+KTS=scumteam, and LATER (3) Hiraki offering more associatives 742. I point out that 1 and 3 are contradictory. Fumiki's answer is unpersuasive. 908.

Thats my scum!Fumaki case. But after last night, I am fully persuaded that there is either a (KTS Fumaki) team or an (CFJ CeeJay) team. So I want to flip one of the team that I find scummier. If KTS is scum, scum needs to kill Fumaki in order to avoid auto. If KTS is village, tomorrow's lynch is guaranteed scum.

[teacher]

here's where I'm at:

i'm never lynching CFJ or creature or KTS today. plain and simple. I want their reads around tomorrow.

if I'm lynching in the lurker pool, i'd look at CJ probably. (not total lurker, but not that active either)

if i'm lynching in the active players, it's probably between fumiki and thebrie, but this last category is where i need to refine my reads the most.

OK. I find this quite interesting.

@Northside (player) and @BBT - please react as well.

My preferred lynches, in order, are Kill, (Fumuki/CJ). Im not voting outside those three - they provide the most info.

[teacher]

how would you think about scum!CFJ?

Possible. The (CFJ CeeJay) team is defintely present. But I agree with them, and with their logic. They also dont have the obvious contradictions that the (Kill Fumuki) team do, e.g. 505 and 742. That is why I want to kill one of the (Kill Fumuki) team. Whatever way the flip, I know where it points for tomorrow.

[teacher]

I don't 100% buy your KTS/Fumu or CFJ/CJ associations

This to me is the key, and it locks the game for town. So lets explore it. Tell me what you dont buy, or what undercuts it:

1. KTS/Fumuki team: [/list]

KTS + Fumuki

This is the most troubling part of Fumuki's behavior. Not only does he derail the KTS wagon (

after last night, he has hopped off at L-2 twice

), but does so when his reasons for joining remained facially valid. (see 440, 441). Moreover, his explanation for trying to steer to Hiraki is that it provides info on Kill; but he argues Kill doesnt provide info on Hiraki -- such a one way rachet is implausible, especially if the read is based on how scum would play together (741, 742). Fumuki gives his reasoning in the second links above, but I dont buy them. By the way, given the Kill-Brie above, I have no idea how Fumuki can plausibly suggest Hiraki (someone he accuses for LURKING) has "more associatives" than KTS -- Fumuki making contradictory arguments from a supposedly close-reading player. On the reverse side, KTS pretty routinely towns Fumuki without reasons, only changing during what could well have been a staged fight.

In general, KTS seems to attack anyone who calls Fumuki scum (both now and later in the game); this is mostly focused on teacher, so that might be the result of an independent scumread, but teacher seems like a pretty convenient target (if KTS/Fumuki are scum together, then they must be pretty worried about teacher's reads!).

2. CFJ CeeJay team: Here, nobody has made the case before. And its far less obvious, less guaranteed. For me this is again an indication that the KTS Fumuki team is scummer. AT bottom, its a VCA case. Both seem to be joining wagons later (possibly scum looking for mislynch):

• 509 - Creature
• 810 - Brie

The countercase is that this is weak, and shared votes could be the logic actually convincing them independently. Moreover, their posts show no obvious relationship (but that can be strategic distancing as you suggest).

• Early CFJ scums, votes, and defends his scumread CeeJay early for credible reasons. 54 and 135 and 264. T
• Early CeeJay on the other hand towns CFJ - a common read at that point, possibly pocketing, and not indicative of team either way.
• But then Ceejay seems to go against CFJ 264 - distancing?

*******

After rereading and trying to justify, all I see is a KTS-Fumuki-Brie team for sure. Im down for lynching whoever of (KTS-Fumuki) the board can rally behind, which may well be Fumuki, even though Id prefer Kill. What say the current votes on the Kill wagon? If they flip town though, I sus (whether as a team or independently (CFJ and Ceejay) and insist on lynching one of them.

[teacher]

VOTE: CJ

I'm good to start here.

i'm gonna go finish studying and write a final exam in cosmology. i'll see y'all either tonight or tomorrow. don't do something stupid while i'm gone yeah?

Tell me how Fumuki doesnt provide more info? The lines between him and both Kill and Brie are locked. CeeJay is -- as you note -- less tied. Lynching Fumuki either nabs 1 scum, or provides 2-3 clear suspects for day 2 -- CFJ, CeeJay, and me. Since I know my own alignment, its CFJ and CeeJay for me.

[teacher]

Im stepping back for a bit for work. I will wait to see more reaction from other slots. For anyone coming in, I will offer my own biased tl/dr on the last 15 pages if asked. But my bottom line remains that this game feels pretty lock-town regardless of today's lynch/flip as long as it is Kill/Fumuki. Here is why:

1. Kill/Fumuki flip scum: The ties between each other, and Brie, are incontrovertible. D2 scumlynch and win secure.
2. Kill/Fumuki flip town: The wagon must have had scum on it. Since I know my orientation, and the other wagon leaders are (CeeJay CFJ), D2 scumlynch secure.

I dont see a CFJ wagon ever starting. I dont think CeeJay offers the same info at this point. Thus, Im down to Kill/Fumuki. I prefer Kill but will defer to anyone else on leadership.

[teacher]

Wow. So little advancement, but so much talk. Im going to ignore all of today's posts from related players (Fumuki, Kill, CFJ, me), and focus on the contributions of the non-aligned players (Hiraki, Arch, BBT).

Y'all have made it pretty clear that only two wagons will go through today: CeeJay or Fumuki. Im actually fine with that.

Now, one of those wagons has to be driven by scum. So lets see whose driving what wagon:

• CeeJay: BBT was there, but the impetus is being driven by Kill+Fumuki
• Fumuki: Im driving it, and presuming CFJ and possibly CeeJay will join it.

I have already provided the case that Kill and Fumuki are clearly coordinating. I tried, but could not provide a case that CFJ and CeeJay were coordinating. 977. I challenge you to make a case that CFJ/CeeJay AND I are coordinating over the course of the game. If you cant, ask yourself, which one is the wagon more likely being built by scum for a mislynch? The one with players coordinating over the course of the game, or the one without it?

Seriously, I challenge the nonaligned players to answer two questions. (I dont want to hear from our active players. Do you own analysis):

• If you think Fumuki was NOT clearly associated with Brie (saving her lynch by any argument necessary and driving counterwagons) and Kill PRIOR TO LAST NIGHT, explain why not?
• If you think CeeJay WAS clearly associated with two players (CFJ and me) PRIOR TO LAST NIGHT, explain why?

If this exercise winds up with you agreeing that Fumuki has more associatives, why wouldnt you lynch him? VOTE: Fumuki-san.

One final note, it is IMPERATIVE that one wagon go through. If we are close to deadline, I will hammer or jump on a CeeJay wagon. When he flips town, remember the team that I tried to convince you of. To avoid a D3 loss, scum must self-kill n1 and n2. Put another way, in this scenario, when CeeJay flips town, make the following lynch list irrevocable: 1. Fumuki, 2. KTS, 3. Fumuki. That creates D3 start at 8:1.

[teacher]

And Fumuki gives away the game. The Brie is the key to the puzzle. Filter the entire game for Brie, and:

1. Assume Brie is town, and the wagon on her was scum motivated:

• Kill starts 1st Brie Wagon with second vote. (111)
• Ceejay disclaims interest. (215)
• Fumuki points out a contradiction (316).
• Kill tries to scum me and Brie together, and I disclaim interest (333, 339),
• CFJ Nulls the spot and I do. (463, 464),
• Fumuki makes a longer case about a second contradiction. (480)
• Only then do I and CFJ join.

The original motivation comes from Kill and Fumuki, not CeeJay or even CFJ. CFJ (and my) Brie cases follow Fumuki's by 100s of pages.

2. Assume Brie is scum: Scum must be willing to bus their own and put town within one lynch of their wincon, because CeeJay put Brie at -1. OR scum is not willing, and will do anything to stop lynch - a la Fumuki.

However you slice the Brie's actual alignment, the different role played by Fumaki and CeeJay in her wagons make their alignment plain.

[teacher]

And back to spamming the board and promising analyses........Kill for days you have promised to explain your Brie read. Days. But the two times you have tried, you were caught in lies (891 So.....
1. Explain the Scum!Brie case?
2. Explain why, if Scum!CeeJay, he would put his partner at L-1 (801) where she would stay for 2.5 hours?

[teacher]

Silent because subway commuting home. Interested in the solution you have Fumuki, or at least whatever creative juices are flowing. Because I think what you are going to offer is something newly cocked up because my 1026 explained how town still wins with a CeeJay mislynch today.

[teacher]

Since this setup is about majority votes if we reach deadline, I'll be lynched anyway, so wait a little for my post. Until later.

I point out that the game is town-sided with ANY flip because of the 3 person team, so I promise hammer. 1026
The leading scum suspect then tries to remove his own counterwagon to avoid just that -- to ensure NO flip. 1040
He promises a later post based on the Brie's demonstrably false assertion that this is a plurality lynch game. 1042

Now I ask you. Is withholding a game solution something that is consistent with Town!Fumuki's 341 posts? Or does it demonstrably prove scum!Fumuki who now realizes that a counterwagon also kills them?

Im actually not asking for a quick hammer. But get those votes in by Sunday, because the explanation sure as heck wont be.

[teacher]

Since this setup is about majority votes if we reach deadline, I'll be lynched anyway, so wait a little for my post. Until later.

I point out that the game is town-sided with ANY flip because of the 3 person team, so I promise hammer. 1026
The leading scum suspect then tries to remove his own counterwagon to avoid just that -- to ensure NO flip. 1040
He promises a later post based on the Brie's demonstrably false assertion that this is a plurality lynch game. 1042

Now I ask you. Is withholding a game solution something that is consistent with Town!Fumuki's 341 posts? Or does it demonstrably prove scum!Fumuki who now realizes that a counterwagon also kills them?

Im actually not asking for a quick hammer. But get those votes in by Sunday, because the explanation sure as heck wont be.

[pause while Fumuki has fellow scum flyspeck his new concoction for the same obvious holes that the try at a CeeJay wagon had].

I will say this Fumuki, Im interested to see what you have cooked up. If it locks the game with lynching Town!you first, I will accept both the offer, and the premise that youre town. But the lock better be in place with me as town. Otherwise I'll spot a hole, because Im not scum. Happy cooking.

[teacher]

Fumuki, I honestly appreciate it. But I dont yet understand it. Who is the scum for your gamesolve?

Put another way, play out your hypo with me, with variations for night actions. You say

• D1 -> hit Fumuki (town) -> 8:4
• D2 -> hit Brie (?)
  • If Scum!brie->KTS D3
  • if Town!Brie -.????

. What do we do under your plan if Brie is killed N1?

Put simply, I dont get your gamesolve. I appreciate your sacrifice. But show that it solves it, please. Because I do want to flip you today (I think youre scum). So tell me what to do with Town!you to win.

[teacher]

So the only lock-scum in your solve is Brie? I still am not getting it. Who is lock scum? Or who is in the scumpool and how many in that pool MUST be scum? i cant play this out as a lock, but I may well be missing something. Please?

[teacher]

Ah, the internal bickering. I dont think this solves because it makes two critical assumptions that I dont buy. I will explain.

[teacher]

This does not yet solve. The problem is that it requires all four scum to be known. If only three are known, it is not a lock, though it favors town provided Scum is lynched day 2.

These are the critical assumptions:

Every one of you are lock-scum

CJ ISN'T SCUM.

So according to Fumuki, the scumteam MUST BE (Brie, CFJ, Kill, teacher). I know this assumption to be false, because I am town. But you do not believe that. So I ask you assume any ONE of your lockscum are innocent, and there is a three person scum team playing with either two lurkers or CJ.

Play this out, predicated on a D1 Town!Fumuki mislynch, as directed by your sacrifice:

• D1: Town!Fumiki, 8:4
  
• N1: rando townie killed, 7:4
  • D2: MISIDENTIFIED! scum lynched, 6:4
    • N2: Correct scum killed, 6:3
      
    • D3: Correct Scum lynched, 5:2 (1 to wincon)
      
    • N3: Correct Scum killed, 5:1 (1 to win con)
      
    • D4: No Info, not locked. Mislynch begins D5 at 3:1, and lylo.
  • D2: Correct! scum lynched, 7:3 (1 to wincon)
    • N2: Correct scum killed, 7:2 (1 to wincon),
      
    • D3: MISIDENTIFIED Scum lynched, 6:2 (1 to wincon)
      
    • N3: Correct scum killed, 6:1 (1 to wincon)
      
    • D4: No info, not locked. Mislynch begins D5 at 4:1 - one free lynch before lylo.

All of this said, Im down for your game. It is consistent with the teams I actually believe are at play (Fumuki KTS) v. (CFJ), and buys town two free nights, and possibly a free lynch. My precondition is also based on the teams I believe are at play. If Fumuki flips Town!, we must and have to hit CFJ. That lands scum, and so winds up in the second column.

In short, my vote stays where it is, and my day 2 remains the same as it would have been if you flipped town. This changes nothing for me. But you have explained it to the board, so maybe they will all sign off (except KTS, who is tunneling Brie).

Lynch Fumuki, per his instructions.

[teacher]

There is no way I am not hitting Fumuki or Kill today, except to hammer a CeeJay CFJ wagon. Im out.

[teacher]

Teacher, I don't know why if you believe in the theory you're not willing to sacrifice yourself

I said I would play. I.e., that i am willing to be the misidentified scum lynch. What more you want?

But, just to complete the gamesolve, can you prove (demonstrably) that the scum team isnt (CFJ, CeeJay, and two lurkers) or (KTS, Brie, and two lurkers). Because those just about kill town under this scenario, just saying.

Regardless, Im lynching in (Kill/Fumuki/Brie) today as before, with a willingness to hammer a (CeeJay, CFJ, or even me) wagon to provide some info.

[teacher]

NVM, if its deadline with me on the block, I can see town suicide as just dumb. Too fast.

[teacher]

Well. Fumuki it is for me. My other two options are Kill/Brie. It sees like the CeeJay wagon is dead.

I know Kill's position. Brie also has the most lurker votes. I will return to sheeping CFJ and looking for the town consensus lynch.

[teacher]

VOTE: TheBrie. I still prefer Kill or Fumuki but am happy to consensus lynch here.

[teacher]

Brie is L-1.

[teacher]

Exactly Arch.

Which leads to teacher/CJ.

or Mafia Kill KTS to do this. Just saying. BBT you were never on Brie.

That said, I’m VOTE: CFJ right now based on relooking at the old vote counts. I get I’m sus and don’t blame you if you lynch me. But I am vla through Monday so won’t be responding that fast.

[teacher]

I can’t. I’m on mobile and vla. Basically I tried to look at funuki Kill CFJ and ceejay after Brie flipped and thought I saw CFJ mirroring Brie a little bit. My end of d one read was still on teams. That’s been blown out of water. So tbh I don’t have much right now at all and may not be a terrible mislynch. But I am town. And will explain whatever your case is as best I can when I get back on Monday.

[teacher]

Im on vacation, so not going to take any time to analyze. I will provide that Monday afternoon. For now, I'll just respond to those suspecting me:

• I made an independent scumcase on Brie AFTER voting her, 621. I stayed on for hundreds of pages. Indeed,.....
  
• I left her at L-1 for two hours after CJ voted, before shifting to Kill. I shifted because I thought Kill offered more information, as I explained 824 and others agreed. I remained explicitly willing to vote Brie at this point.
  
• Once the board made clear that Kill would not be a compromise lynch, I went to Fumuki. 1026 Why? Because the board also made clear that Fumuki was the most likely compromise lynch in my suspect pool (Kill, Fumuki, Brie). Nobody had expressed interest in Brie.
  
• I provided the L-1 vote on Brie when it was a flashwagon. I don't see Scum!me doing that.

Im town. Im also derpy from my team theory. But even if you dont accept the team theory, look at my actions from its perspective, and they make sense. I certainly dont see how they are more suspect that Fumuki's try anything efforts to avert the Brie wagon, only to change when it became apparent that he would be the other option. (No, Im not calling for a Fumuki vote here. I need to go over D1 with the flip knowledge before I make any case on any one.) VOTE: unvote.

@BBT - like I said, I get why Im sus. But can you now answer the repeated requests for your early Fumuki case that you would not share?

[teacher]

@BBT: I think the question you asked (Im not sure) is why I think I'm sus. I think it is because I took the hammer off of Brie 2.5 hours after it appeared, and then argued more in favor of Kill/Fumuki than Brie. The reason I did that was that Brie's ISO at that point was fairly empty, other than the fact that she could not explain her repeat pocketing of Kill. I thought the case on Kill provided more info while still lynching within the same team (tied together by Fumuki). I moved off Kill to Fumuki based on board preferences (what I took from Arch's 980). I always remained willing to lynch her and did so as a flashwagon once it became clear she could be the consensus.

One other note. I still need to analyze D1, but I think CeeJay's putting Brie at L-1 in the 800s and L-2 in the flashwagon basically clears him. Yes, I realize Im clearing your alt to me. Which makes you think we are a scum team. But it is giving me the same thoughts about you: That you and Fumuki are maf having planned your night kill to cause a (CeeJay or Me) mislynch to distract from Fumuki's efforts to clear Brie today, and that your start of D1 unexplained case on Fumuki was theatrical distancing. So Im inclined to vote either of you. But I am not going to actually do so before analyzing the game.

[teacher]

@

teacher

: What do you make of Fumuki's #1060?

I need to think on it. Right now, without self-checking across posts, I cant make much of it.

Scum!Fumuki thinks that if he flips Mafia, the town is going to KTS next (I probably would have, but could certainly have been talked to Brie). So he knows his death buys 2 night kills and a mislynch?

Town!Fumuki this he has solved the game. But he clearly hasn't - Kill is town, and I am too. If town, its an oddplay to seek a mislynch, and one I know now should make me doubt all of his reads.

When I actually get back and analyze the game, I know Im going to be looking mostly into Fumuki, BBT, NorthSide and Creature because I am not sure what to make of any of their play. Id still really like to know BBT's early Fumuki case.

[teacher]

MOD - VC is wrong. I unvoted. 1231. Offline now til Monday.

[teacher]

MOD - VC is wrong. I unvoted. 1231.

Offline now til Monday.[/quote]

[teacher]

Lynch me, lynch town. Like I said, I get it. And I will respond to BBT's analysis Monday if the day continues.

But @BBT: Youve been asked about 10 times now. Why cant you explain your unexplained Fumuki case from the 100s? If you dont want to distract from your wagon on me, make it in two sentences and then emphasize the growing wagon.

@Creature - I expressed the read AND had my vote there.

[teacher]

I don’t know if I’m hammered or not but for my fellow wanker townies - didn’t it occur to you AT ALL that nobody was trying to push a counterwagon? Scum kind of has to at least a little bit or lose the game. Should be confirmation of vanilla but IDGAF. It was a great vacation/wedding weekend.

[teacher]

If it is twilight I’m not going to go do the analysis I promised. But BBT Fumuki and creature smell bad to me. Funuki was trying anything to save scum. BBT was lurking yesterday, then pushing the counter wagon, only to come out of the gate much stronger today on what turned town. And I think creature is playing in his scum register - low game relevant comments or reads but voting on town. Note that BBT and creature missed most of the Brie fun

[teacher]

And I see BBTs still unexplained case on Fumuki as fake distancing. I view Fumukis wagon and destruction of the wagojbon creature as the same as what he did to Brie.

I havent given CJ much thought. I think Hiraki is lock town. Good luck.

[teacher]

To rebuild cred? I honestly cannot read you. But the Brie events, the interp of the NK, now the focus on lynching the townie tunneling you..... makes me susp you. Sorry if I’m wrong.

But I will also point out that scum didn’t have to do much today. Town needs to get better at realizing the absence of a pushback. Needs to get better at at least having a counterwagon for better vca. To not end a day in 48 hours.

[teacher]

So boring I may die....wait, I already did. Go towns!