Mini 1723: Town of Helen Day 4
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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tl;dr: I'm a shit poster when sleep deprived and writing code.
Now it's like you never even replaced into this game.-
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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In post 17, Prolapsed Brain wrote:I replaced in?
Exactly.
I'm getting offline now to get some sleep. I'll be less scatter-brained in the morning, I promise.-
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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Titus' original vote seems like an RVS push at someone to see what squirms, which is town play. Silverwolf's response is pretty much exactly what you hope for when you make such a push - overly concerned, defensive, etc.
The SK thing is stupid and not indicative of anything either way.
Re: Setup speculation. Traditionally, 10-2-1 couldn't possibly be balanced for scum unless one of them was lynch-proof or something equally dumb. 10-1-1-1 would be interesting, but probably too swingy for anyone to want to run it. What's more likely here is 10-2-weak cult, since this is bastard. Itispossible to have third parties in a 13 player, 10 town bastard game, but not traditional scum and an SK. Setup speculation with zero flips is a waste of time, though. It's also a waste of time to conflate "not considering setup speculation prematurely" with "is scum".
Basically, the potential scum tell here is the reaction from Silverwolf to having a vote on them, not the shitty reasons Titus is throwing out. I almost wonder if this is an out-of-the-gate scum v. scum. Maybe I'll dig into Titus' meta later and see if she's done that before.
Post #68 is Titus encouraging us to design a setup in-thread. That's major derailing.
I don't like Vedith's ideas (setup spec =/= inside knowledge, not in the way Titus is doing it), but they're town.
Titus and SW, can one of you link to all games you've played with each other in, on and off site?-
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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I should probably note that I tend to write as I read and then post the results with little to no editing. My thoughts may change between the top and bottom of a post. That's confused people in the past, so it's easiest for everyone if I mention it now. Any reads I deliver farther down a post are more relevant/more up-to-date than those at the top.-
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In post 85, Titus wrote:@rob13, if you're looking at my meta, I play a shit ton, best to ask for a specific behavior.
I was only interested in the interactions/history between the two of you. I'll dig for games you both posted in later if I have time. That's a big "if", kind of a busy year for me.-
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In post 84, Titus wrote:In post 82, Rob14 wrote:I should probably note that I tend to write as I read and then post the results with little to no editing. My thoughts may change between the top and bottom of a post. That's confused people in the past, so it's easiest for everyone if I mention it now. Any reads I deliver farther down a post are more relevant/more up-to-date than those at the top.
Isn't this how everyone does it if posting unfiltered like us?
Some people read the entire thread then write a post. Even if unfiltered, people naturally tend to post more consistently in that format because they highlight the behaviors that support their overall thought process more than those that contradict it. I like writing more as a stream of consciousness because it prevents that bias, but I would say most don't do that.-
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@Vedith: I'm saying that this is not a situation where it appears inside knowledge was used. Even though I think there are 3rd party possibilities, I can see how a reasonable person would arrive at Titus' conclusion without knowledge of the setup. I just don't think your read that they must have inside info is very strong.
And I'm thinking more about the "us", and I really don't like it. Your read on me is either very town very fast or you know that I'm town. Nowthat'san example of inside knowledge.
VOTE: Titus-
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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Titus, can you explain how you have such a strong town read on me by page 4 to refer to me as part of the "us" group? I'm just not seeing it. If you have a clear rationale, then I'll reconsider, but I don't think I've ever town-read someone hard enough in the first few pages to be willing to consider them confirmed town like you apparently consider me, based on your language.-
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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In post 103, Titus wrote:The stream of consciousness is the us by the way.
I don't buy that. I explained what stream of consciousness was without calling it that, basically, then you said that it's what everyone who posts unfiltered does "like us". That reads like "us" being town to me, not "us" being stream of consciousness.-
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In post 112, SilverWolf wrote:Stream of consciousness is a personality tell. Hands fucking down. Remember that game where I drew neutral. You didn't find me out because I was posting any less than normal or different. You found me out much because I was overexplaining a neutral as an IC. Stream of consciousness is NOT an alignment tell ever.
Responding to Titus, what did I do other than simply post in stream of consciousness and say I was posting in stream of consciousness that was transparent? Just give reads? Because scum do that all the time. Can you link to a game where you made the transparency argument in the past as town?-
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In post 114, Titus wrote:@SW, I haven't said Stream of Consciousness is a town tell and it is personality tell. Transparency suggests town. That is what fuels my townreads.
Oops, also meant to quote that in the above post.-
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In post 33, Titus wrote:Didn't I teach you a lot about how SK and scum are different in the Halloween game?
Second, SKs aren't relevant here.
VOTE: SilverWolf
No sympathy from me, you're better than this.
At the time you made it, was this an RVS vote or a serious/semi-serious vote? If it was serious, can you explain why you found this scummy?-
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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Upon re-reading the interaction, I'm dismissing the possibility of SW v Titus being scum v scum. The only reason I had to think SW was scum was a suboptimal response to being pushed in RVS. But if they knew the person pushing them was not genuinely doing so, then I don't see why they'd react with concern. I also recalled that we didn't have a confirm period, so there was probably no scum discussion prior to the start of Day 1 (unless they have daytalk). A scum v scum push early Day 1 would be risky with no discussion beforehand.
This just eliminates the possibility of Scum!SW and Scum!Titus together, not the possibility that either one could be.-
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In post 131, Prolapsed Brain wrote:In post 120, Titus wrote:Also, why are you not calling out those lesser-active? At least I'm posting. O_o
Active lurking is worse than normal lurking in the first 48 hours of a game.-
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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In post 137, GuiltyLion wrote:SW vs Titus - Titus seems to manipulating/inferring a lot from SW's posts to provoke a reaction. Leaning town because it's extremely aggressive and succeeding in getting a response from SW. SW is overdefensive but frustration at being scumread for stupid reasons comes from either alignment, so still null on her for now.
I like where Vedith and pistachi0n are at. Rob13 is efforting a bit too much this early in the game but I will have to meta this weekend to see if that's normal for him.
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Aristophanes. Standing on the sidelines and sheeping Titus, fueling the flames of an unproductive and petty argument. We already have one person getting under SilverWolf's skin and using it to paint her as scummy, we don't need two.
You're welcome to check, but FYI, I haven't played a game in around a year, maybe more. My meta is probably stale by now.-
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In post 160, GuiltyLion wrote:It's an easy push to make and feels like probing for the sake of probing, rather than probing with results in mind.
From a more theoretical standpoint than practical for this game, you have this backward. Scum probes with results in mind, because they already know who is and isn't town. Town probes to see who squirms, and then they go for the results.-
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In post 161, Titus wrote:In post 127, Rob14 wrote:In post 33, Titus wrote:Didn't I teach you a lot about how SK and scum are different in the Halloween game?
Second, SKs aren't relevant here.
VOTE: SilverWolf
No sympathy from me, you're better than this.
At the time you made it, was this an RVS vote or a serious/semi-serious vote? If it was serious, can you explain why you found this scummy?
Serious. I thought SW mentioning things that did not exist as her RVS was scummy, especially when it required conflating SK and scum.
But how is that scummy? Why would scum choose to say you were scum in the last game in the joke stage? Where's the motivation?-
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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I did some reflecting for a bit on my past play now that I'm a ways removed from it and re-read a few of my past town games. I think I have a confirmation bias toward people who are more active. As they post more, they're more likely to say something that doesn't sit right with me and that leads me to go after people simply because they're bound to say something off if they're posting a lot. I'm saying this because, upon further thought, I don't know if my read on Titus is an example of that. I don'tthinkit is, but idk. My take-away from my self-meta is that I need to more actively look for town tells and more heavily weigh them against any scum tells in determining my reads, since just looking at volume of scum tells isn't much better than rolling a pair of die, probably.-
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Titus has had their pressure and reacted as much as they were going to, in my opinion. As I already explained a while back, empty posts are 1000x worse than no posts in early Day 1. I mean, come on, P_B came right out and said things like:
In post 50, Prolapsed Brain wrote:Wow, drama. Let me know when it's over.
Let's not analyze the reactions; let's just skip it due to "drama". Hint: If you define drama as two people arguing, all of Mafia is drama.
In post 113, Prolapsed Brain wrote:In post 107, Titus wrote:
You want an end to drama, we can agree to Unvote for 48 hours and not to mention each other as scum (but have it presumed unless noted), we scumhunt other people. That would reduce the drama for all without forcing me to be fake in my reads.
Hahahaha sorry, this just made me laugh (literally) out loud. It's like two people in a relationship saying "Let's take a break for a while. We'll see other people, and we'll check back in after a month or so."
Sorry. I do have a pretty warped sense of humor. Carry on. (However, if these two are scum together, I would not be shocked. It's too much like coaching.)
I'll just claim my credit for posting, but you guys keep doing your thing. There's no content in this post, and it was well after RVS.
In post 131, Prolapsed Brain wrote:Also, why are you not calling out those lesser-active? At least I'm posting. O_o
Then, when I did start calling them out on their emptiness, they actively tried to claim the "hey, I'm posting!" credit.
Not a single post from P_B has shown any desire to find scum. It's shown a desire to sit back, eat some popcorn, and stay alive. That's scum, through and through. This is a much stronger read than Titus ever was.-
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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@Titus: I don't really count drawing a relational tell as content. They're useless pre-flip.
Titus is reading more like really stubborn and wrong town lately. I question why on earth he would write what he did on #171, though. If Titus ever flips scum, we lynch P_B next for sure.
Re: pistachi0n; Reads on players and specific questioning are generic statements about the game. K.-
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In post 177, Titus wrote:@Rob, why are you drawing relationship tells between me and PB if they are useless Preflip?
It's not useful content now, but it can become useful later, and I'm likely to forget it. There's a difference between posting nothing but a relational tell and noting a dependency in your reads while also doing something useful in the short-term.-
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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That's me questioning Titus' explanation of how he got a read on me, which I didn't buy. How is that not relevant?-
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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I believe I found a bias in how I form my reads, and I think it's not a bias that I can easily tell when I'm using it. I was announcing the potential bias so others can think critically about my reads and give me a firm kick in the ass if I start tunneling everyone who posts a lot. That's not a hypothetical; it's certainly happened before.-
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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@Titus: I re-read games semi-frequently. I'll come back across my own post. A good portion of my posts is me more-or-less throwing my notes into the thread, which many people don't understand. That's kind of the point of me announcing that I post my unedited thoughts as a stream of consciousness. You know, the post that you seemed to dismiss as unnecessary/something everyone does as town? Ironically, your confusion is pretty much what I was trying to avoid by being up front about that. Oh well.-
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In post 188, Titus wrote:@Rob, Are you an Aspie?
No, but my brother and two cousins have autism, and that personal attack is entirely uncalled for. I'm stepping away from this thread for a bit. Users have been banned for using that slur before.-
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In post 202, Titus wrote:In post 200, Rob14 wrote:In post 188, Titus wrote:@Rob, Are you an Aspie?
No, but my brother and two cousins have autism, and that personal attack is entirely uncalled for. I'm stepping away from this thread for a bit. Users have been banned for using that slur before.
I don't consider it a slur as I am an aspie myself. :$
Historically on this site, it's been used as a slur. If you didn't intend it that way, I'll assume good faith there, but please refrain from using it again.-
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In post 223, Rob14 wrote:I'm getting pretty confident that I've hit paydirt here.
In post 224, pistachi0n wrote:How much time do we have left? The Rob wagon isn't gaining anything and Titus has been looking scummier to me with recent interactions.
But suddenly, a new contender has emerged...-
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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I'm pretty sure Titus is town now. Stubborn town, but town nonetheless. My original read on SW was based on the strong reaction, but others have now mentioned that it's in her meta to be somewhat hot-headed, so that's more or less back to null for me. I haven't seen anything particularly town there, but the reaction appears to be present in all SW's games (based on other people's knowledge of her meta; I haven't dug there).-
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Your only non-RVS contribution so far has been to FoS someone for requesting more activity from you, with no further reasons why. Contribute something.-
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Starting with the harder of the two, Ari has been somewhat of an enigma to me. I haven't seen much either way from him. He appears to be putting in some effort, but #205 seems like a lot of summarization over analysis in many places. I don't think it looks overtly scummy, but I have a hard time placing a post with that much summary into the town column because it's the type of thing scum can do to look good. So basically, it's one big idk.
By the way, just realized I forgot to answer about my Vedith read. His posts strike me as trying to sort through the Titus v SW situation, not encourage it. Scum doesn't hound on a risky topic like setup spec and insider info when no-one else bites onto it, which no-one did. Carefully considering his existing reads by asking questions. I don't know what here could possibly be interpreted as scummy. My read wasn't incredibly strong at that point, but he's as town as anyone here for me by page 4. Since then, the read has gotten stronger. When the Titus wagon was reaching a standstill momentum-wise, he questioned my rationale for voting that way, and yet kept hammering Titus, even going so far as declaring that he'd found her partner. Scum doesn't make that move, especially when I pull off Titus in favor of P_B and it's obvious the wagon is dying. Why help kill the wagon and then double down on it? Consistent with someone trying to think critically and find scum. Inconsistent with someone who's trying to secure a lynch and survive.-
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As for Titus, that's mostly gut, with a healthy side of that realization I had about my bias toward thinking those who post a lot are scummy. I thought about it more, and the "we" "slip-up" is exactly the type of nit-picky thing that comes up simply due to volume of posts. At the end of the day, my gut is saying Titus is town, and I'm going with that for now.-
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In post 239, GuiltyLion wrote:I didn't like the abrupt change.
Just as an FYI, throwing around my vote is very much in my meta. As town, it's my strongest and often only power, and I intend to use it wisely. As scum, I'm aware of my town meta and replicate it. If you look into my games, you'll find this is very much a null tell for me.-
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In post 240, GuiltyLion wrote:In post 237, Titus wrote:@GL, Where's the attempt to sort SW from you if you think my reasons are stupid? When ika and mollie play in games without me, they can be some of the best scumhunters but by doing things that seem illogical or stupid on the surface (but they really aren't). Insulting one method while providing nothing to support it yourself is discouraging sorting SW. The fact you haven't asked her anything since I brought that up makes me wonder, just what are you doing to sort SW?
I have not attempted to sort SW yet. I don't think the things you are doing are stupid, I only think your justification for your conclusion is wrong. SW thinks "scum" includes a hypothetical SK, that doesn't mean she is scum in this game. She never accused you of being SK. I'm not insulting the method, just questioning the conclusion you are drawing from using that method. I can read you as town and still think your push doesn't make sense, town makes misguided pushes/cases all the time.
I will get around to sorting her as the game goes on and it would help if you stopped derailing everything she posts and getting her so aggravated that she tunnels/argues with you. As a bystander to the whole argument between the two of you, there's nothing I see in her posts that helps me sort her and there's nothing I want to ask her about yet. She hasn't done anything in this game so far other than get sucked into arguments with you.
Everything about this screams town. GL is now my strongest town read.-
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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Where'd he say he'd look through my meta? If he said it pages ago, I've forgotten it. He didn't say it in those posts, that's for sure. I'm an advocate of pointing out your own null tells as a proper use of self-meta, which is what I did here. I'll explain more post-game unless it becomes relevant, but this is something I've done before and been lynched for before. I know I've done it as town, and I'm pretty sure I've done it as scum as well. So it's a null tell. (A very meta discussion about meta ... hehe)
As for why that post is town: Town don't regularly admit that they haven't read through something yet, because it almost invariably follows that someone will push them for skimming or not scum-hunting. They're following my line of thought exactly about the SW/Titus slap-fight, and I know I'm coming from a town POV, so they get some minor points for that. More importantly, that line of thinking shows they're critically analyzing the two sides. They come away with two town reads. At this point, siding with one party isverylow risk and potentially high reward (derail town, probably get a lynch out of it). With someone directly asking them for their thoughts on the slap-fight, no-one can later accuse them of purposefully trying to keep the distraction going. After all, someone specifically asked them to interject! There's no scum motivation to pass up that opportunity. She even actively tries to encourage space for all involved to do their thing.-
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In post 259, Titus wrote:@Rob13, I don't see analysis but at best a stick in the ass stating you suck. It's not analysis to call people stupid, summarize the thread and then say null which means no conclusion can be drawn. I could fake a null read on you with more content than he did. You just put a bunch of facts, then say null.
PB's condition hadn't been met. His condition was the end of the drama, it's ended now.
Having a condition to start scum-hunting is scummy. That's a really obvious statement, too.
And yes, it is analysis to call an argument stupid. Would you rather someone fake a town/scum read when the read is actually null? I've found no correlation between null reads and town/scum. I'd say I actually give more null reads as town, personally.-
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Not everyone writes out their analysis in full, but in order to reach the conclusion, it must have happened. If you see a chicken, then you don't debate whether you ever saw an egg. It must have been there.
Forcing yourself to throw people into town and scum piles when there is a large middle ground makes itharderto find scum, not easier. Once you start looking at someone as scum or as town, you think about them differently. If you force a null read into one of those boxes, you'll find yourself facing confirmation bias that make your reads less useful. At least that's what I've found.
I have a response to the last two paragraphs, but I'd like GL to directly respond to that point first.-
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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Yeah, my memory is way shorter than that for an off-hand comment. Thanks for digging it up, though.
The problem is that when you start thinking in terms of a "town" box and a "scum" box and sort everyone cleanly into the two, you start looking for more town tells in the town box and more scum tells in the scum box due to conf bias. This results in reads that are less susceptible to change, which is my main issue with forced sorting. But this is w/e, probably should be discussed in the post-game. I think we can chalk up our differences in the GL read to a disagreement over how town should be playing and we're unlikely to resolve that. I'm happy to debate further if you like, but I don't see anything to be gained from it at this time. At least not that would help us in this game.
FYI, my reads list (in no particular order within each category):
Town:
Titus
Vedith
Hieirama
GuiltyLion
Null:
SW (need to see more; right now the Titus/SW fight is decidedly null for me. Original reaction was scummy imo, but other players with experience with SW appear to support that it's in their meta regardless of alignment, so null tell I guess)
20x100 (this will essentially always be null; I'm shit at reading hydras because they're incredibly antithetical to the way mafia is meant to be played and every contradiction can be explained away as "but it was the other head!")
Boonskiies (either bad town or scum; indiscernible at the moment)
Aris (lot of effort, not so sure on substance)
Flubber (needs to stop lurking, null tell for this player though)
A Simple Plan (has made one prod dodge post, nothing else)
Scum:
P_B
pistachi0n-
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6219
- Joined: October 5, 2012
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6219
- Joined: October 5, 2012
In post 268, Titus wrote:Good night Rob. Catch you tomorrowish.
At the risk of turning you off to being pleasant, could you find an example of you similarly exchanging pleasantries in one of your town games? As I was flossing, it occurred to me that this is another example of potential buddying concerns. Almost went right over my head, too.-
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6219
- Joined: October 5, 2012
I think Flubber's concern is that I stated earlier that my playstyle has likely changed over the past year since I last played. That's a valid point. I can tell you that as town, I would still throw around my vote, as it's a deeply held conviction of mine that that's the way you find scum. I can also tell you that as scum, I would copy that, since I know it's in my past town meta. Take from that what you will.