The Wire, Season 1 - Final Credits!

[Plessiezarus]

whilst scum will no doubt have been given fakeclaims it's almost a certainty that they'll be more minor characters (at least comparatively).

Er. Have you played in a Farday-modded Theme game before? Because this is almost certainly

not

true. Faraday likes to give the scum nice major-character fakeclaims.

(Psst. Tammy. We're not voting yet. Discuss.)

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

I think it's really cute that you want me to discuss your not voting and calling attention to it as if it means anything. If you'd like to discuss that, I'd be interested in hearing it.

I

am

cute. Thanks for noticing! But actually I was just being snide. I do that (I don't think it means anything, obviously. But you've said that you do, in the recent past.)

What I'm more interested in is why on page 5, you've decided to comment on the lamest possible thing ever which has already been chimed in on.

Okay, so 103 is "the lamest possible thing ever" to comment on. Got it.

You deserve a roundhouse kick to the head for bringing up this stupid idea that had already been talked about as a stupid idea. I know you read the game because you comment on posts 77 and 78, so you saw it brought up, saw the answer, and thought you'd bring it up again.

Heh. This

was

deliberate, right?

(Zar says you're town though . Is that true?)

Didn't comment on anything else because I didn't think the first five page of the game were very interesting (Arthur's RP is irritating and he should stop it, but I doubt he will just because I say so and I don't think it's any sort of alignment-tell). Zar told me he didn't like Shadoweh's reaction to the wagon on her, but he didn't tell me why (he's apparently "busy" ) so you'll have to wait for him to expand on that.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

I am always town, but I don't believe you! Zar either has finally learned how to read me or is just reading Empire. Admit it, you're the one townreading me aren't you?

Well, Zar thinks he's town-reading both of you, but only because he thinks you posted 99. Which is wrong, right? But a town-read on Empire is a town-read on your slot, so.

(Thanks for not replying with a sarcastic confession. That would have made you a terrible person.)

Although Pless - Why haven't you asked any questions or poked at anything?

Laziness

and a morbid fear of talking to strange people on the internet

.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Dismayed by the number of people who signed up with no flavour knowledge. You'd all have much more fun watching The Wire for the first time than you would playing day 1 of a mafia game. I know I would . Ah well. Zar was meant to post something overnight, but apparently

he thinks this game is dull too

he decided to "work" or something instead. Loser.

camn

-- did you ever respond to Cerulean's question to you in 126? That is, do you really think unexplained RVS votes are suspicious, or do they just annoy you? And if you didn't answer, why not?

Also, "hydra self reference" is a silly thing to use a scumtell, especially when you're (correctly) town-reading Cerulean. Not quite as bad as the people who are voting SAD because of his RP, but close. (We're not changing our sig unless you ask more nicely. Just petty that way, I guess.) I've certainly never claimed to be having "rousing debate" with Zar; we both read the first few pages and exchanged a few quick impressions on IM, but that's it. (

DV

, consider that an answer to your question in 251, I guess?)

dayne is town. his roleplay is the terrible-est, fakest reason to suspect someone ever. its not even hard to understand.

Quoting this because lots of people have apparently come to the same conclusion. But I don't think the first sentence follows from the rest...

Yes, SAD's RP isn't a good reason to vote for him. But it's not a good reason to clear him as town, either. I definitely think Arthur's crazy enough to be willing to RP as scum, though he probably decided to RP before getting his role PM, given when he changed his avatar (so his only decision was to not change his mind, if that makes sense). The game Zar just finished modding off-site saw Arthur (with what I guess would be the Traitor role here) post a

huge

amount, so I'm not clearing him based on the fact he's posting a lot, either. That's not a tell for Arthur. (I don't find Arthur all that easy to read in general though, I guess.)

Don't think much of the wagon on Nostrodeus. The name-claim suggestion sounds more like a sign of inexperience (either in Farday-modded games in particular or Large Theme games in general), and the rest of his posts seem consistent with this.

Nostrodeus

-- have you played in (or read) many Large Theme games?

Also, why did you ask this question

@The Mini-L: Why don't you like Great American hero?

when you did?

Mini Librarian said he didn't like TGAH in 95. You make three or four posts after that, and don't ask him about this. Then TGAH votes for you and starts asking you questions and

then

you ask ML about his TGAH-read. Hmm.

Neither Zar or I saw anything particularly suspicious about Shadoweh's 79, so I'm a bit puzzled about why so many people are voting for her based on it. (97 is the post Zar doesn't like, and that's literally all I know? So, yeah. Your guess is as good as mine as to why.)

But in general I'm not following her argument on Benmage. I don't see his play in this game so far as any different from his play as town in ADWD, and Shadoweh was in that game (as the Pandora hydra).

SafetyDance probably has the worst vote on SAD:

Vote:Ser Arthur Dayne

I agree with Benmage. The RP is not helping and is annoying.

Bubbles is a scum CI anyway.

This seems ... overexplained for a page 5 vote. "I'm voting because I'm sheeping X and also because of [joke reason]". Jason's interactions with SAD -- at least his irritation with SAD's RP -- seems much more genuine (although 122 is too long, and I love walls normally).

CDB's style of giving one-line "X looks town/scum to me" reads isn't one I hugely care for, and (perhaps ironically, given why he's voting SafetyDance) some of his posts seem "too safe". I mean, generic statements like "mass name claims are a bad idea" (106) or "people giving opinions is good" (154) or "it's easier to read replies if they're written outside of quote tags" (174). Meh.

ChannelDeliBird

: can you expound on 166 please? What suggests McStab has "a town mindset"?

I don't like McStab's reasons for voting Nostrodeus; I don't like the way he jumped on to and off the Shadoweh wagon without ever giving a read on Shadoweh (I'm not sure I even like his first post, with his "oh, look at me being nonchalant about the RVS wagon on me" remark, but that's probably just me starting to tunnel )

Anyway. Not going to vote until Zar's had a chance to read the thread properly and either post here or in our QT. But later today.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Lets stop talking about you, and start talking about

Plessizarus

I like to see my (our?) name in big letters and everything, but you could at least spell it right .

~ Pless

IEZ

[Plessiezarus]

I don't see any difference there to the last time when I saw him [McStab] as town.

Got a link to that game?

As far as my posting style goes, it's fair enough if you dislike it, but this how I'm going to play. Brevity is pro-town; Walls of text aren't fun so I try hard not to write them and I don't read them either.

Yeah, I don't expect you to change. Short posts seem to be the in-thing anyway; I should get better at reading people who post that way. I'm familiar with the argument they are pro-town, but not entirely convinced.

I like walls, personally. (Not sure you'd have guessed from my posts.)

I don't think my vote on SafetyDance for being too safe is hypocritical - him voting for Ser Arthur over the roleplaying thing is a really easy stance to take that requires no actual examination beyond the surface and would let him get lost in a crowd if the wagon built up.

I don't think I was accusing you of being hypocritical, per se, and I don't think hypocrisy is a scum-tell anyway. You're right that his (and other people's) votes for Arthur are easy ways to pretend to comment.

Apologize for the length of the wall.

This post was too short, yes. Apology accepted!

Tammy and others have told me in the past that Benmage prides himself on having "the best scum game on the site," and as such, he's much more aggressive and engaged as scum. He also tends to look down on people who are lazy or don't try very hard when they're mafia. As town, he's pretty much the opposite, I feel like he's a bit more passive and he can get pretty lazy and lurky. Regfan wrote a very concise summary of it here in ADwD, a game I feel he's playing very similarly to. I also took a look at one of his somewhat recent scum games here and I think you can pretty clearly see the difference (take a look at his interactions with MoI especially).

His play in this game is certainly closer to ADwD than it is to the linked game, yes. (I should probably do my own meta-research, but ... as I said, lazy.)

I don't see how SafetyDance's vote on Arthur in #113 is overexplained at all, in fact my problem with it is the exact opposite - it feels extremely lazy and undercooked.

Overexplained in the sense that, once he said he was sheeping Benmage and voting because of the "annoying" RP, the comment about SAD's avatar seem redundant? Like, why say that at all unless you're worried your vote might be seen as too unoriginal? ("Overexplained" doesn't mean "not lazy".)

Don't really care that he didn't comment on the "major topics of discussion", since ... yeah, they were boring.

Normally, I have a pretty easy time reading Arthur but I'm struggling this game I think largely due to his RP'ing. Tammy's told me his scum game has been improving, though, citing the recently finished Westeros game. Do you and Zar feel like he's playing similarly here or not (and why)?

"Similarly" might be overstating it? Superficially similar, sure, if you ignore the RP in this game. He starts (started?) both games with a lot of short one-linear posts (sometimes quoting something and commenting, sometimes asking questions, sometimes just making random remarks). As I've said, I find this style hard to read, personally, but I'm pretty sure it's what he thinks is the "correct" way to play as town, and it's how I'd describe his early posts in NY160B too. So really, it's not "similar" in any way I consider indicative of alignment, but it's not yet obviousy dissimilar either (again, except for the RP, which is unique to this game). I'd link you to the Westeros game, I guess, but Tammy can do that if she wants.

There are a couple of things I'd expect from SAD this game if he's town, but he's not had the chance to really do either yet, so I won't comment until he does (or if hasn't after a few days, I guess). For now he's very much a null-read for me.

Tammy found the intra-hydra back and forth regarding your townread on our slot to be genuine but I'm not so sure, I think something like that could be easily faked from you guys. I don't really trust myself to be able to read your slot given what I've heard about Zar's meta, though, so I'm pretty much delegating all of that to her.

Well, if we were scum we'd pretty much have to fake some sort of interaction like this (or explain why we weren't behaving the way we did in ADWD), so I don't think the fact I'm talking about Zar so much is much of a tell in itself? I don't know how good a job of faking it we'd manage though.

We

are

town this game, anyway, so well done to Tammy .

(I'm still waiting for Zar before I vote, obviously.)

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

First- I DID answer that question! But Perez didn't notice in his eagerness to create a counter crap case. Attack your attacker, hmm?

I looked for an answer, didn't see one. Still don't, really, unless the second sentence of 147 was meant to be one. Was it?

Also, I ... pretty obviously haven't made a case on you? Asking you a question is not a case. (And you can't really think 254 was intended as a response to 253 -- I simply can't write that much in five minutes.)

Third- the sudden uptick in your post volume after they catch a vote? Classic lurkerscum.

This is also silly. Well done. My post volume increased after my first couple of posts. And?

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Pless wanted me to discuss why I didn't like Shadoweh's reaction to her wagon ages ago; it was mostly because I read her reaction to the votes piling up onto her in #97 as fake. The whole combination with the over the top language and the "your accusation is unfair, give me something to counter-argument with you" tone, basically.

Normally, I have a pretty easy time reading Arthur but I'm struggling this game I think largely due to his RP'ing. Tammy's told me his scum game has been improving, though, citing the recently finished Westeros game. Do you and Zar feel like he's playing similarly here or not (and why)?

Empire: neither of us sees where the Dayne town reads are coming from; we don't think the RP+aggressiveness/activity levels are relevant at all to his alignment. His self-assurance of calling the townreads on him naive doesn't sit well with me; especially knowing that he wouldn't be able to get away with this in the game with three people that followed his class act in the last Westeros Large Theme (BTW: Before the alts change, you should read that Monster known as Mafia 97 in Westeros), As Pless mentioned, Arthur was scum there. Your co-head can give you the insides to that but he was the House Dayne alt.

PEdit: I'll expand on townreads if people feel that it would help with their read on the player in question. Or even if someone just really feels that my explanation for a townread would be the key to determining my alignment. I realise that I haven't said who I townread yet though.

Taking this post into account and your comments in #251

I'm going to bank on this for some more peeking into your brain. So far I've seen people give reasoning out for SAD (which I have my reservations with and Pless touched later); and Benmage (I find Benmage difficult to read but unlike Pless I remember his play being different in ADwD, The White Flag and the other ASOIAF game I read). I agree with your Cerulenan/Channel Town read (though my early impression was that CDB read scummy until #106).

Anyway, can you give out the reasoning to your townreads (though I'm particularly interested in Shadoweh / camn / Nostredeus / TML)?

(For the record, DeasVail's #183 is a very null post, coming from DeasVail... In my first game I found him scummy for being waffly before, but later came to realize that ambivalence is how he approaches the game).

~Zar.

[Plessiezarus]

Stop with the fucking wallposts please

OK!

Day 1, Votecount 14

Not voting (1):

Plessizarus

Even the mod can't spell our name properly .

Game in which I played with McStabTown (also contains me as scum if you're interested)

I'm ... not really seeing the similarity between the game you link and McStab's play in this game. I still think McStab looks kind of scummy.

Question, why is it ok for Plez to find 100-odd general posts boring without much need to comment on but if I didn't feel the need (or have the time to extensively cover it) too, that makes me look scummy?

Couple things regarding pless.

Where do you see me saying its all right they didn't provide content.

In fact i know that at least three of my posts have been on that very thing, in one I said pless was a productive vote because of it. So why are you deflecting onto someone about a subject that's already been covered?

[...]

In the quote below [snipped], pless states they didn't talk or comment on any of the earlier discussion either.

But Cerulean obviously wasn't disputing that I

said

this. Rather, they were saying that they had called me out on it, and very much not said it was "all right".

Why should I suddenly back down if SAD wont?

Wut.

How are you turning this into a 1 vs 1 where you pretend you're tunneling on me but your whole vote was basically statin' "will you stop?" and I answered "no"?

Like, what is your vote achieving now?

Have you given up on the RP now, Arthur? Because you've at the very least tuned it down a lot in your last few posts.

Um. Anyway. Zar was meant to be ISOing somebody, but he's vanished . We've spoken enough now to confirm we're happy with a vote though, so I guess I'll go ahead and VOTE: McStab.

We also have weakish scum-reads on absta, who Zar finds "unusually disengaged", and on Jason and TGAH (don't like either of their contributions, and Zar hated 122). Actually starting to have a bit of a town-read on Safety Dance though (Zar thinks his irritation with Arthur actually sounds pretty genuine, and reading his more recent posts ... eh, I guess I sort of agree?). I guess "town-read" is pushing it - we're not interested in voting him, put it that way.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Plessie,

whats your view on Petapan?

Pless should be back at some point

to continue sneering about me, most likely

, but as far as my thoughts on petapan go, I liked the vote on Nostredemus and thought the vote on DeasVail was natural. Also, I thought his response #284 was more likely to come from someone who wasn't uncomfortable with scrutiny, I'm willing to guess townish at least for me.

I am very well capable of continuing RPing as scum, Pless is right I decided to do this beforehand, and it's hilariously naive to think that I wouldn't do the same exact thing as scum. If you're gonna put me as town, it better be for a damn good reason.

*twitch*

~Zar

[Plessiezarus]

For people on the Safetydance wagon: Why him over Absta? I really feel that Absta is display many of the same signs that Safety is except on a much worse level.

There is always the small hope that Absta will contribute something good though.

Don't understand this comment. Please explain. Are you disagreeing with TML's claim that absta looks worse than SafetyDance, or are you suggesting there's no hope of SafetyDance ever "contributing something good"? Right now, which of the two do you think looks more likely to be scum?

Don't think your town-list is very good either. What makes you think Baby Spice is town? Did you have a town-read on TML before your 396, and if so, why? (Is it because of his 390, is what I guess I'm really asking.) Or a town-read on Vifam before he replaced out? (Though the manner of his replace-out does seem townish, actually, so maybe that's a good read after all.) For someone who insists early town-reads on him are "hilariously naive", you seem to have quite a few naive reads yourself.

Still happy with our vote on McStab. His votes on Nost and SafetyDance feel like opportunistic attacks on inexperienced/weak players. Together with things like the fact he singles Benmage out as not giving off a "scumvibe", while otherwise sneering at the people who were attacking Arthur's RP, or his early and otherwise "naive" town-read on Arthur, he just gives the impression of somebody who's primary objective is to avoid getting into a fight with an active, strong player

or with Arthur

. Not really interested in making a big case on him at the present moment, though, since it's not a very strong scum-read (and because of more general laziness, I suppose).

Benmage

-- I don't really agree with Zar's weak town-read on petapan, but I can't say I agree with your case either. He's definitely coasting and using jokes to deflect suspicion or avoid answering questions, but that seems par for the course from him (based on Abarat, for instance). I find most of your other scum-reads more suspicious than him (except SafetyDance, who I think is more likely town).

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

SAD

-- please respond to my 409.

This may be OMGUS but I think he's been trying to drift under the radar, so I'd be into a Plessie wagon if it forms

Not going to lie -- the fact that 411 was literally

immediately

followed by post after post of people declaring that you actually do look pretty scummy was quite gratifying.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

As far as the connection? Read the thread and we can talk about it.

This is a good way to not answer the question, I guess .

Speaking of not answering questions:

First- I DID answer that question! But Perez didn't notice in his eagerness to create a counter crap case. Attack your attacker, hmm?

I looked for an answer, didn't see one. Still don't, really, unless the second sentence of 147 was meant to be one. Was it?

Well? Is that fragment of 147 meant to be an answer?

(I know, "ragh, READ THE THREAD", but ... isn't it easier to just answer a plain question than it is to make a huge fuss about having already answered it - and refuse to give any link or post number to reference where that answer was? Why make this so difficult?)

Vifam was scummy in general, and so is his replacement. Also note the hypocrisy of asking me 'why' while delivering absolutely nothing in the way of 'why'.

When did you decide Vifam was scummy? (I searched your ISO, and all I find is a post in which you agree with something Vifam says. Can't see you give any read on his slot before now.)

I actually think BT is looking pretty townish (especially in light of the way Vifam dropped out -- that definitely seems more like the action of lazy town than scum). (It also amuses me that Vifam's replacement seems to love walls as much as Vifam hated them.)

Hypocrisy isn't a scum-tell, either.

Either spill it.. or shut up about it and just tell us when after you have two-head-approval. Hydra self-reference is

not useful

.. and although I have townread on YOUR SLOT, I am starting to think it is a scumtell in general.

You seem to be confusing "things that are annoying" with "things that are scummy".

We all get that you don't like hydra self-reference. You've said this repeatedly. (It's funny that you seem to hate answering questions more than once, but are happy to keep telling us you dislike hydra self-referencing, over and over again. Except, for "funny", read "irritating".)

Hydra self-reference isn't a scum-tell. It's

clearly

not. Hydras make references to their multiple heads all the time, as both alignments. If you find hydras annoying or whatever, good for you -- but you signed up for a game which multiple hydras had pre-\inned for. You could have guessed that those hydras would behave as most hydras do and make reference to each head individually like this. Given that, it's a bit tedious that you feel the urge to keep shouting about this topic. Nobody's forcing you to play with hydras, and hydras aren't going to change the way they play simply because you insist it's a scum-tell.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Town peta is much more focused early in the day in terms of scumhunting. Scum peta takes a few pages to find something he wants to bite on.

This is something that is fairly consistent throughout his meta.

Hmm. You might have a point here, actually. I checked the links you provided and had a knee-jerk "oh, but minis are different from large themes" reaction at first. I mean, it's definitely easier to be focused quickly in a mini.

However ... looking back, this pattern seems to hold for Abarat too, which I linked to earlier and thought was similar to this game (in Abarat, peta gets an early scum-read on Shinori and he sticks to it and argues for it quite a bit). I fail at meta, maybe . Will need to go and

gratuitously self-reference

talk about this with Zar, I guess. How many (and which) games did you check?

Right now, which of the two [absta and SafetyDance] do you think looks more likely to be scum?

Prob none actually? I mean they're... just

there

.

But if you

had

to pick one of them as scum, which would you pick?

Vifam's 40 actually reads very genuine and townish in retrospect. It seems natural, + don't think if Vifam was actually a cop and white he would've said that. The one black people IIRC from the cops (in s1) are Kima and Freamon. Kima is a girl, so that leaves Freamon. Meh, so it somewhat lowers the odds of him having a scumrole.

That seems like a pretty odd reason to read Vifam as town. Weren't you mocking the people who read Vifam as town as "naive"

after

this post? A long time after? What made you go back and reread those posts?

Ironic or not, I don't really like any of the other hydras. TGAH I have already gone into and they are a strong scum read of mine. But the other two Plessiezarus and Cerulean both feel fake when I read their posts.

TGAH is scummy, yeah. But I'm pretty confident Cerulean is town. Have you read any of their games before (as a hydra or as the individual heads)? Tammy's scum-game seems to be pretty different to her town-game, and her posts this game don't sound like she does as scum to me.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

More importantly.. have I cleared anything up for you? Is something that was unclear now clear? Please tell us your conclusions.

My conclusion is that, as I thought originally, you didn't actually answer the question. Cerulean asked if you thought voting with no reason was scummy. You don't actually address that question, just said that "naming names is the worst kind of first page". Things that are bad or annoying aren't necessarily scummy.

Because me ignoring questions that dont actually help the game (that is, your question about if I answered a different question)- I do that for a reason. To avoid polluting the game with crap-spam.
I also protest the hydra stuff for the same reason....

to avoid polluting the thread with crap

.

You keep insisting that hydra self-reference is a scum tell to

avoid

spamming the thread? Got it .

I ask questions because that's how I get reads on people. People refusing to answer questions doesn't help the game.

Re: Vifam- Now. Today. Thats when I decided. BT rang my bell, I ISO'd Vifam, and went wow. scummy.
What do you conclude from the timeline of my suspicions? Anything? Or was that just a question for the sake of chainsawing your partner?

What about Vifam's ISO is scummy, exactly?

And Hydra self-reference certainly can be a scumtell. Cerulean alluded to it already-

"look they're trying to fake hydra dissonance since everyone thinks that's town."

And before you say it- I understand that there may actually be real hydra dissonance.... but telling the real from the fake is the name of the game, right?

This is a ridiculous non-sequitur. Of course

fake

hydra dissonance is a scum-tell. But that doesn't mean any and all sign of hydra self-referencing is a scum-tell, which is what you've (repeatedly) claimed.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

TGAH

-- according to 125 / 141, both your heads have (had?) a town-read on Dayne. How and why did you come to this read?

I mean, obviously I agree that Dayne's RP is a terrible reason to suspect him. But, as I think I've said already, it doesn't follow at all that Dayne is town, so I wonder if either of you had some other reason to think this?

From the same posts: rofl had a town-read on Jason, while Konowa had a scum-read. Presumably, since you're now voting Jason, rofl was persuaded out of his town-read. Can (either of) you say why?

absta

-- what are your current

actual reads

on SAD and petapan?

(You call SAD "slightly scummy" and his post "really fake" in 430, but then you let him talk you out of town-reading Jason in 436.

You call peta "prob scum" in 291, call him "town" in 432 and accuse him of "bs noise" in 437.)

But if you

had

to pick one of [absta and SafetyDance] as scum, which would you pick?

None right now? I don't see how this is useful?

I just don't really understand why you replied to TML's suggestion that absta was looking scummier than SafetyDance (which he made in 390) if you don't have anything relevant to say about either of them.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

[Re: peta]How many (and which) games did you check?

[seven games linked to]

... well, I can see the pattern you suggest in the first four linked games, and the last. Don't really see it in NY 157 though? And Micro 49 is such a weird, short game (a double-elimination game that ended in forty posts, then had to be restarted with new roles) that I'm reluctant to even think about using it as a data point. Abarat does fit the pattern though, as I said. Hmm. I'm really not sure what to think, actually.

This is something we (that is, Zar and I) will have to argue about, I guess. Still happier with McStab, TGAH, abtra or Jason for the time being, but I'll try to make time to look for more Petapan games (ideally seeing if I can reliably guess his alignment this way). His posts are the sort I tend to dismiss/skim, anyway, so this will be good practice for me in reading that sort of playstyle.

But if you

had

to pick one of them as scum, which would you pick?

This is such a weird question to ask. Why did you ask this, Pless?

I think I explained this in 496? I find it odd that SAD, who has interacted with both SD and absta, felt the need to comment on ML's "don't you think absta looks scummier than SD?" post just to insist he had no read at all on either.

Also, #419 looks like he's just jumped on McStab because a few players were saying "hmm, McStab is lynchable".

Throwing in the connection with Plezz (as if she's conf scum) is another terrible move that seems more 'opportunistic' than 'genuine'

.

Don't think I agree with this. It would have looked much more opportunsitic if camn had gone "oh, wait, ignore my case on Plessizarus [sic]! they're innocent, McStab is scum!". It's natural for town, I think, to want to hold on to their scum-reads. Easier for scum, who never really believed in them anyway, to throw them away when they don't seem to be going anywhere.

SaD is harder to read (null).

SAD is definitely a pain to read.

You know what?
VOTE: Camn
I'm sick and tired of his fucking bull shit.

4. Camn really hasn't been "bullshitting".

You think Camn is right that hydra self-referencing is a scum-tell?

(Or, since that doesn't really convey my bemusement properly:

you

think hydra self-referencing is a scum-tell? )

Nearly 100% McStab would flip town after reading him in ISO like I said in one of my recent posts.

What do you see in McStab's posts that makes you read him as town? (Let alone "nearly 100% town", which I'm assuming is just hyperbole.)

BT, after the rant about camn being scum and commenting that she jumped onto McStab right after Plessie, don't you think its hypocritical that your very next post is checking out the McStab wagon?

BT didn't suggest camn was scum simply because she suspected McStab. He claimed it was suspicious that camn joined a wagon

started by her claimed top-scum read

. But BT doesn't have a scum-read on us. So I'm not seeing the hypocrisy here at all?

Alright time to plow through the shit arguments out there. Can someone, perhaps BT (I find his posts to be the most eloquent of my detractors) please outline, in bullet point form, the points against me?

If you've read BT, and found his posts against you "the most eloquent", why not just reply directly to those posts?

I know some people are town reading him for the gambit, but it reads fake to me.

The "gambit" is just ... ugh. It's not so much that it sounds "fake", it's that it doesn't read anything like a real gambit inteded to do anything -- in context, it's clear by the time of the "gambit" that people - including Jason - have already said enough that the "gambit" can't possibly work. Doesn't feel like something worth building a read on at all.

What I also think is scummy is his complete sidestepping of the real issues people have voiced against him. He repeatedly keeps saying stuff about how we think he's scumm for wall posting, when the point has been brought up that

it's that his wall posts contain very little content and appear to just be commenting on things to look busy but are trivial

.

The bolded is the problem we have with Jason, yes.

I feel like he's going "how can you think I'm scummy I haven't even done anything scummy yet.".

This is the sense I get from McStab's latest posts, too.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

So TML has had 0 heat all game which makes me sad, I suppose that can wait until Day 2; I might look at this once TML has more content to consider.

Do you think people

should

be looking at TML? If so, why?

(Looking at your iso, you seem to suggest that TML's 390 is scummy, but you say nothing as to why. Can't see any other mention of him at all.)

Because you were clearly showing interest in the big wagons but your vote didn't reflect that -- it was wasted on Absta instead. Why didn't you commit to one of the wagons at #390?

Absta does look pretty bad though? It's a bit early in the day to be talking about "wasted" votes, no?

Arthur - What's your read on Pless/Zar?

Prob null leaning scum.

Have you been very accurate in reading them (either head) in the past? What is leaning you null/scum?

Not particularly? (I mean I don't remember the last time Zar played a westerosi game, and I don't remember ever seeing Pless as scum on westeros, so meh - I don't remember ever really getting a strong read on them in ADWD either).

Since you started playing there, I've never been scum on Westeros. That hasn't stopped you calling me scummy in almost every game we play in . And as Tammy(?) says, Zar plays quite regularly, really. (The Marvel game was ... November, wasn't it? Not that long ago, anyway.)

(You had us as null/scum in ADWD, too, for the record. With, looking back, much the same reasoning as now .)

And I find their lack of engagement/interaction and seemingly interest to be appalling.

We don't feel the need to post more than 80 times halfway into day 1, no. Nor is this currenly a particularly interesting game, one that would justify masses of attention and rereading. Sorry?

@petapan

Could you bullet the reasoning behind your two top 2 scum reads (Sdance, jason? if thats still them)
-And bullet top 2 town reads with a reason or two please.

i think safetydance is scum because he was super bitchy and indignant about how SAD was acting but used words like "antitown" to describe it, then shifted his focus solely to defending himself and complaining and acting like he's a victim. it's bullshit, he's fake, his words ring hollow

i don't particularly have a reason on jason, i was more or less following other people there but i lost confidence in that voteif i had townreads i was confident in, i would state them. i don't. i don't believe anyone here is someone i can easily read as town.

... over 500 posts into the game, you have one scum-read and no town reads?

Even Zar's managed better than that!

My problem with them is the lack of engagement, I said before that I thought that zar was less active due to his modding a game that was running before this game and passed him on that, but he's still not being active, and his new immediate pet project doesn't excuse him from being active here. The only only thing I have towards him being town, is that he hates being town and he hates being unrolled, so if he's decided to check out and leave his partner hanging he might be town.

Cerulean, would you mind signing your posts just for these exchanges? Because if I'm talking to Tammy I'll feel silly for saying things she probably already knows, like "Zar decided it would be more fun to work on a uPick game at Westeros than play this game, and apparently it's going to start on Thursday". At the same time, it's pretty obviously relevant to his current lack of activity. I'm ... not sure why he agreed to hydra with me if he was going to be this busy? Meh. (I'm reviewing that game, too, and it's pretty much the only thing he talks about on IM recently .)

And I might really believe that just pless isn't engaging in the game at the level I would expect innocent him to be, so it makes me paranoid on them both. None of this makes me think they're town, and them looking like they're forcing to post does ring off.

I might expect that from zar, who probs has his own thing that's more interesting, but I wouldn't expect it from pless

.

Ouch.

For the record, even I can find more interesting things in life than this game. However unlikely you might find that to be. This isn't even the most interesting game I'm in on this site.

I was just really hoping you'd have some insight as the pless/zar read is something we've been having a hard time with.

Tammy (if this is Tammy?) -- wouldn't you think you were normally better at reading us than SAD is? (Admittedly, I've never been scum in a game you've played in either, but you at least seem to default to reading me as town while SAD defaults to reading me as scum )

Or does "we" mean your heads aren't in agreeement?

[Plessiezarus]

EBWOP: I forgot to sign that. Clearly nobody will realise it was by me unless I say so, so...

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Plessie, I'm going to be blunt here. Although I will probably get around to it, I am very likely to put off reading quote walls.

None of my "quote walls" this game seem very hard to read?

I mean, I could have easily replaced each of them with several shorter posts (boosting my rather anemic post-count in the process), but I personally find multiple posts in a row from one person more tedious to wade through than a "quote wall". If I have a backlog of several short questions/responses for different people, I'll most likely post them all at once.

Is this a problem to you?

Not really? (It makes you a bad person, but only in RL.)

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Both Pless and I got a chance to discuss reads together today. we're actually more or less in agreement on most people. In short, we're both confident that Benmage and Cerulean are town, and we have weaker-town reads on sottyrulez, Nostrodeus, Shadoweh and SafetyDance. Our strongest scum-reads are absta, Zdenek/McStab and TGAH. Weaker-scum reads on Arthur, CDB, petapan and Jason. Everyone else is essentially null still (though we're conflicted on BT/Vifam Pless thinks BT's townish, but I thought Vifam was scummy and BT has carried the same trend. While he had quite a few single liners, in collective, Vifam's posts were very little content relevant; My impression of BTs catchup in #394 was that it read fake; his thoughts on TGAH didn't read to me like the natural train of thought of someone trying to discern a player's alignment. Didn't like much of #456 either; felt that his jump on McStab could have well come from somebody feeling the urge to bus and thought that he was giving Arthur an easy pass for stuff that wasn't alignment indicative.

Since people hate Pless' walls, apparently, we'll look at what we think the main points against our scum-reads are in a series of posts. Pless will also take a second look at BT, and come back with thoughts.

~ Zar.

[Plessiezarus]

TGAH -- according to 125 / 141, both your heads have (had?) a town-read on Dayne. How and why did you come to this read?

the terrible attempted wagon on him for the rp. easy target is easy. didn't i already say this?

You already said this and I already said it wasn't a town-tell. The mere fact people are voting for a player for bad reasons doesn't mean that player is town. Sometimes people will vote for scum for stupid reasons. "Easy targets" (not that SAD is one) can be scum. That's all perfectly obvious, isn't it?

Wait tammy fill me in on zar-meta in the marvel game (that's the one he played and I'm assuming he was town in?)

"I'm assuming"? Are you claiming you didn't read the Marvel game?

@Plessie

... its a little early to be getting apathetic towards the game.

Apathy is a bit strong? I'm not a huge fan of D1 in general, and this game in particular hasn't really grabbed me yet. But it can only get more interesting.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Since people hate Pless' walls, apparently, we'll look at what we think the main points against our scum-reads are in a series of posts.

(Zar left some notes in the QT. Going to ignore stuff I think is silly and throw in some things I think he missed, but this is essentially a proper hydra-post, I guess.)

Absta

Absta seems disengaged from the game. Oddly so. He claimed in 61 that this is because he's not used to "the speed" and that his content would pick up. But since then, the game has become much, much slower and absta's activity hasn't improved much at all. It feels like he's using his struggles to "catch up" as an excuse to coast. Compare this to Open 456, where he seems more confident and aggressive, pushes more people, and actually follows up on his questions.

Though Abstra (repeatedly) complains how hard it is to keep up, his disengagement seems like a deliberate choice. He seems to be intentionally focusing on only a small number of people (I think he's only given reads on five or six people all game). His posts seem disjointed and I don't see any real sign of a coherent thought process linking them. He throws out various questions to people, but this often seems like posturing - he doesn't seem to care about getting any anwers, and the questions don't fit well with his current claimed suspicions.

For instance, in 282 he asks Cerulean: "why is Safetydance scum to you?". But by this point, he's already claimed to "not like" Safetydance's 113. So this whole exchange just feels like an excuse to go on and later vote for SD, once Cerulean "convinces" him. But though he votes for SD, he does nothing to push this wagon, and gives up on it once other people lose interest (see 516).

In 291 (and earlier) he argues peta is "prob scum" because he is "finding it hard to create reads". But then in 432, he suddenly decides peta is town, based on what feels like a very weak reason. Again, it feels more like he's giving up on the wagon because of a general lack of interest on other people's part.

Also don't like his jump on camn (514 and onwards). Feels opportunistic - a couple of people had expressed suspicion of camn, or at least irritation with her discussion of hydra-dissonance. His claimed frustration with camn's "bull shit" in 515 rings hollow; his first ever mention of camn in the thread came only five minutes before this. So this sounds like an artificial reaction. In 516 he says people should join him in voting camn "for what I brought up". But he hadn't brought up anything new at all...

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Since people hate Pless' walls, apparently, we'll look at what we think the main points against our scum-reads are in a series of posts.

(Zar left some notes in the QT. Going to ignore stuff I think is silly and throw in some things I think he missed, but this is essentially a proper hydra-post, I guess.)

TheGreatestAmericanHero

Another slot that seems to be playing things safe.

Early town-read on SAD isn't really justified and is, at best, illogical. Being voted for for poor reasons doesn't make you town. Since both rofl and Konowa played with SAD in NY 160B, I wonder at the idea either would call SAD an "easy target".

Post 192, responding to DV's 191, reads like a strange defence of McStab. DV had suggested McStab was only talking about who to lynch if Nostrodeus flipped scum as a way to "make [his] scumread sound more genuine" (and failing, obviously). TGAH then whinges that DV shouldn't "jump to conclusuons" and that McStab might really have a good reason to lynch Nost (presumably, one he'd decided not to talk about yet ). Note that this seems to be the only time TGAH mentions McStab. No thoughts at all on his later wagon, apparently.

Their interactions with sottyrulez (550 and 612) feel like wilful ignorance. Of

course

some people, as town, are going to defend people they think they can read well when they read those people as town. It seems forced that they try to suggest that only a scum-buddy would defend Jason. (Zar and I think sotty is wrong about Jason, but that sotty is probably town.)

Otherwise, yeah. As with absta, our issue is essentally that they are playing things too safe and trying to avoid attention. Posts like:

I’m going to catch up with everything, hopefully, before I head out to work today. If there is anything that people would specifically like me to address please let me know.

feel like attempts to not have to create their own content. (It's much easier to respond to points others give you than it is to attempt to forge ahead in a vacuum.)

Votes for Nost, Jason. Town-reads on strong active players like Cerulean and SAD. It's all just a bit too easy, isn't it? (And contrast those Jason/Nost votes with the idea that being an "easy target" makes SAD town!) Fluffing up the post count with links to the wiki and "me toos" in response to other players' thoughts isn't great, either.

(Oh, and TGAH, why do you think we're scum, exactly? 612 seems to be literally the first time you mention any sort of read on us.)

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Since people hate Pless' walls, apparently, we'll look at what we think the main points against our scum-reads are in a series of posts.

(Zar left some notes in the QT. Going to ignore stuff I think is silly and throw in some things I think he missed, but this is essentially a proper hydra-post, I guess.)

ChannelDelibird

Our scum-read on CDB is weaker than on some of our other suspects. A lot of it has to do with their interactions with McStab (so we'd suspect CDB less if McStab were to flip town).

But at the moment, we have a suspicion that CDB has been manufacturing reasons not to suspect/vote for McStab. We don't really agree with 256 as a reason to town-read McStab and I didn't see the similarities with the town!McStab game that CDB later linked to. In that light, the later suggestion (in 429) that McStab was only recently deviating from his expected town-behaviour feels like CDB giving up in light of the pressure on McStab. We didn't see a marked change in play.

Lynching your suspects' preferred target tells you nearly as much about them as it does the dead guy

, Shadoweh, so not convinced by you dismissing it like that.

The bolded seems pretty obviously not true. Especially on day 1. As an argument that Shadoweh should join the SD wagon, it seems ... disingenuous? If you want somebody to join a wagon you're on, surely you can find some way to explain why you suspect them? (And again, in 480 Shadoweh seemed to be at least toying with the idea of voting McStab, so this could also be an attempt to deflect votes away from McStab.)

Ignoring possible links with McStab ... CDB's reason for a town-read on Jason (in 311, 501) seems weird:

I'd be very strongly considering a vote on Jason but Sotty and Zach have never given me reason to doubt their reads on him.

"I think he looks bad but I won't vote for him because somebody else who's alignment I don't know says he's town"? Ugh. I could understand being swayed by sotty and Zach if you were null on Jason, but if you'd otherwise be "strongly considering" voting for him ...

Don't understand the reason for CDB's earlier DV suspicion (in 311), or the reason CDB gives in 501 for changing his mind. If I had to pick a particularly town-ish post of DV's, it wouldn't be 483?

--

I should probably look at SAD next, but meh. I don't want to reread him? Maybe I'll try to explain why I think Zar is wrong about BT instead.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Plez, what was Zar's silly stuff

Some of Zar's notes in the QT are a bit sparse; things like "116 felt a bit like straw manning" or "bad impression about 285".

If I looked at the posts he mentioned and couldn't work out what Zar was going on about or how they were suspicious, I assumed it wasn't important.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Still don't agree with Zar's scum-read on Vifam/BT. (Don't really see how anybody could get an alignment-read from Vifam's one-liners; his replacing-out I still view as slightly more likely from town than scum, but meh.) But talking to Zar I realised I didn't have a

strong

reason to think BT was town. It was more just that I liked the tone of his posts and felt that his reads were broadly in line with my own, really. I'd probably rank him as weak town alongside Shadoweh and SafetyDance for now.

By the way,

SAD

? This post:

Did you possibly miss, like... all of this?

Spoiler:

@Vifam I see your name keep popping up down there... Can you link a game for you as scum, and one as town please.

My last scum game doesn't match my current meta and going through it would be a waste of time

That was back when I gave a fuck and was on tryhard mode

A town game, too please. If your scum game was tryhard, wouldn't that be the opposite of this and therefore illustrating you as town?

It'll be a lot easier for you to just link than for me to have to cipher.

No, because now I don't tryhard at all

But whatever dude if that's what you want

I'd appreciate it.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... start=7325

That's my most recent town but it's gonna take a while finding the most recent scum

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=17839 - Scum game

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... start=7325

That's my most recent town but it's gonna take a while finding the most recent scum

That was actually more helpful for me than you probably realize. (My god tho... Please don't spam post in this game... try and string some thoughts together)

(which gives a series of exchanges from 214 to 224 as a reason for Vifam being town) seems more than a bit odd coming from you, since this exchange came

before

your 268:

The townreads on both me and Vifam and

[sic]

hilariously naive.

And it's also not what you told me made you (eventually) read Vifam as town yourself. (That was, apparently, his 40, which I

still

don't see as alignment-indicative, for the record.)

Anyway, BT. I'm still not seeing Zar's problem with 394, which I read as pretty genuine.

There's maybe a bit of a contradiction between

Don't like Jason #122;

SAD has some stuff outside of RP to look at at that point

yet the focus is still on "omg stop your scum-motivated rp"

and

Not getting a read on him

[=SAD]

otherwise, might be because of the RP.

I guess? On the one hand, BT says SAD has stuff look at beyond RP, so people (Jason) shouldn't attack him for his RP but instead read his "content". On the other, this "content" isn't enough to actually get a read on him, so he's null but for the activity. (Activity is not a town-tell for SAD, for the record. He spams like crazy as either alignment.)

But really, this feels nitpicky at best, and it would at most merit going back to look at BT if SAD ever flips scum (it feels obvious SAD isn't going to be lynched soon, because people read his acitivty as a town-tell, but I may as well note this for future reference.)

Otherwise I still like BT. His suspicion of absta in 456 feels natural (and correct), and his "My God" reaction to camn's 467 saved me the bother of writing a post (though I was arguing Zar out of a scum-read on camn at the time, if I remember correctly).

Barring possible links to SAD (most of which I'm only seeing because of SAD's position on Vifam, honestly), he's null at the worst, and I think more likely town.

(Is he due a prod though? He had a bit of a glut of activity after replacing in, but he's not posted since Tuesday.)

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

"I'm assuming"? Are you claiming you didn't read the Marvel game?

No? I wasn't in it, so naturally if it meant I didn't have time to play it, I didn't have time to read it

You weren't in it, no, but I know that you posted in the spoiler thread (what people here would call the dead QT, I guess). You read at least the first few pages, and read enough of the spoilers that you commented on people's alignments.

I mean, you didn't post in the spoiler thread much, and you apparently lost interest in following the game fairly quickly, but ... meh. Things like this are why I find it hard to read you. Can't tell if you're honestly forgetful or if you're just playing it up as an excuse to misread Zar.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Can't tell if you're honestly forgetful or if you're just playing it up as an excuse to misread Zar.

How so? (explain the latter?). Wouldn't I just not mention it at all instead of asking Tammy to fill me in on his meta from that game?

Wait, what is the "it" you "wouldn't mention"?

You

didn't bring up the Marvel game. You just said: "I don't remember the last time Zar played a Westerosi game". And that wasn't something you brought up spontaneously -- it was when you were challenged by Cerulean about your ability to read me/Zar.

Tammy

was the one to point out that Zar played in the Marvel game. I mean, once she does that you can either say "oh, yeah, now I remember" or you can say you don't remember the game. It would obviously have been weird if you'd just ignored her post entirely. But it wasn't something you brought up yourself.

--

I'd like to try to clarify exactly why you think Vifam is town, too. When (were?) you convinced by the exchange with Benmage you quoted?

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

This are my notes on McStab.

McStab

Overall, we both had a bit of an allergic reaction on the way McStab treated the votes on him on #17, to us it read as trying to paint himself as being nonchalant about it.but Pless thinks this might be something he could see people do as either alignment, and so perhaps it isn't a good idea to read too much into this sort of thing :shrug:.

However, the comment on Jason's alleged gambit in #53 was easy contribution and felt like an attempt to bank on town cred for expressing concern on ruining a supposed gambit. The comment after his unexplained town reads in 93 didn't bring anything to the table either.

Later, we had a bit of an issue with the jump into Nostredeus 160; the reasoning to continue the argument in 164

It's all about context. You tried to come across non-committed to it so that if you got called out for role fishing you'd have an alibi. But you managed to get swayed by one small, two or three sentence post that doesn't even address that issue solely?

Felt convoluted and fabricated. In addition, the jump at Nostredeus for the Shadoweh vote seemed to just be piled up just to sound like there were other suspicious things he had found; basically because I don't understand why McStab found Nostredeus' vote of Shadoweh suspicious, since he had been voting Shadoweh himself.

Comments like the one in 386 seem to come from a player that isn't interested in discerning anything from the thread other than push a lynch. Furthermore, the reaction to the votes and voiced suspicions on him in 416 felt a bit like giving up on being caught in something he could not get himself out of.

I am generally not a fan of scum-pairings early on or without flips, I tend to associate this approach with players that aren't very proficient in their scum play and try to use information they possess to tie people around to others. (This is in reference to #473). It's also something similar thing when players keep coming with reasoning to not push his favorite suspect, like McStab's in #472.

~Zar.

[Plessiezarus]

Also, Zar, you look like you've done a lot of work backstage, but have been somewhat missing on thread, and not really interacting much. Is there a reason for that?

You mean, besides the fact I'm running a game in Westeros?

I tend to read the game following along my impressions on what players post. It's why Pless often makes reference of me leaving him quick notes on AIM; I find he's a lot better organizing our thoughts while I like to think of myself as the better gut reader of us two.

Besides allowing me to torture Pless into posting on D1

~Zar.

[Plessiezarus]

I'd like to try to clarify exactly why you think Vifam is town, too. When (were?) you convinced by the exchange with Benmage you quoted?

Now? That exchange was to show that Benmage and Vifam talked about Vifam's meta and he even linked a game, in which he had A LOT of non-game relevant posts

Oh, hmm. I think I was misreading you a bit. So is your Vifam/BT town-read still based mainly (solely?) on Vifam's 40? What do you think of BT's posts?

Also, Zar, you look like you've done a lot of work backstage, but have been somewhat missing on thread, and not really interacting much. Is there a reason for that?

I tend to read the game following along my impressions on what players post. It's why Pless often makes reference of me leaving him quick notes on AIM; I find he's a lot better organizing our thoughts while I like to think of myself as the better gut reader of us two.

~Zar.

What Zar is too polite to say here is "I think Pless is a bit of a control-freak, and would go nuts in the QT if I dared to post something in the game without at least quickly running it by him first".

He's not far wrong?

basically because I don't understand why McStab found Nostredeus' vote of Shadoweh suspicious, since he had been voting Shadoweh himself.

Which post are you referring to here?

Hmm. Looks like Zar is misreading things a bit here. McStab votes Shadoweh in 93, and later, in 164 attacks Nost for being talked out of his idea by Shadoweh, his scum-read. But McStab doesn't actually say the Shadoweh vote is suspicious in itself - looks like Zar missed the point a bit. That said, I don't like the fact McStab voted Shadoweh and never explained why he had a scum-read on her (he gives a town-read on her later, I think).

and Pless, why do you have a town read on SottyRulez?

Personally, I have a weak town-read on SottyRulez because I think the "trust me guys, Jason is town because meta!" thing is more likely to come from town than scum (as scum it would be a card you could safely play at most once), and because the persistent suspicion of TGAH and the mild bickering with Cerulean seem very genuine.

Zar's read is stronger than mine, though, so he can expand on that, probably.

Pless, the tiny bit about my comments on SAD isn't really a contradiction.

I

didn't get a clear read from his content, but for someone [Jason] who thinks he's scum hiding behind RP you have to wonder why he didn't seem to be interested in his actual content. To try and convince people and such.

Yeah, as I said, my suspicion of a connection between you and SAD is mostly driven by SAD's insistence that Vifam is town (for what feel like contrived reasons). It's a very weak read.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Of our null-reads, TML and DV stood out as the ones we had least of a read on, so we spent a bit of time in the QT looking at them.

The Mini-Librarian

ML's push on Peta (moving from vague dislike in 197, to singling out a bad post in 223, to then going to look at Peta's past games and making a meta-case on him in 439) looks natural. We also quite liked 390 -- and agree that abtsta looked (and looks) worse than SafetyDance -- and I'm not sure why people have said they found it suspicious. Other than that, he's not done or said a great deal.

ML

-- can you explain your town-read on McStab? (From 197). What about 160 made you think McStab was town? And (since you don't list him as a town-read in your next-but-one post, 307) why did he stop being a town-read?

Also, did you find BT's implict suggestion that your 390 was scummy to be suspicious, or just strange? What are your current thoughts on that slot? (I don't think you ever mentioned Vifam, did you?)

DeasVail

DV has more posts, but he's equally hard to get a read on. Zar's impression seems to be that his early posts are mostly good (especially 186, 251, 349), either because they match Zar's impression of town!DV or because they echo Zar's own thoughts as he was catching up on the thread earlier, but then there's a general decline from 375 onwards.

A few of his posts (like 183) feel a bit hollow, but Zar points to this game as an example of town!DV doing much the same thing (Zar says he had a scum-read on DV for a while in that game, and kept accusing him of being vague or fence-sitting, but DV turned out to be town).

DV

-- can you explain why TGAH has become a scum-read (in 706)? Is this a read you'd say was more influenced by what other people have said than by your own impressions? And what specifically has absta done that you find scummy?

What exactly

are

your reads "as they stand"? Have your town-reads, for instance, changed much since 251/320?

So why do you think that McStab is scum?

Um. Why did you ask this question? (I mean, DV has talked about his scum-read on McStab more than he has talked about most of his reads.)

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

@Nost

How am I the only one who sees this shit? Taking into account that Plez didn't post between these two posts, how did this read-change even happen? At one point Camn ends the conversation with Plez, calling her scum, then BT comes in and get's suspicious of camn and she says Plez isn't that scummy anymore. Fucking bs scum.

If you're seeing something nobody else sees, either you're being much smarter and perceptive than everyone else is, or ... something else. Which do you think?

(Your vote on camn is a wasted one. You should vote for and talk about somebody else.)

Personally I just think you are trying to deflect attention back to me over the gambit etc so as to take away from people looking at you.

By suggesting that you could be scum in a post where I talk about a bunch of people and while I'm not even voting you - that suggestion is LOLZY.

This reaction to me when you've said before that you think that my slot is 100% going to flip town is ridiculous.

Not only was that assertion written round about 200 posts ago, that wasn't even what he said. He said he was nearly 100% that Mcstab would flip town. That's not

quite

the same thing as saying 100%

"Nearly" 100% is pretty close to 100% though. That's what "nearly" means? And while the claim came a while ago, it's not as if Jason had said anything about his read on McStab becoming less solid.

I think Zdenek has a point here. To suddenly accuse somebody of being scum, after previously saying you were "nearly 100%" on their slot being town, and not having given any previous sign of your read changing, is more than a little odd.

What to do think of Plesszarus completely misrepresenting McStab in their case on him?

We didn't do this. Zar misreading one post is obviously not the bulk of our "case" against McStab.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Arthur:

If these are your thoughts on TGAH's #692:

This actually reads the same thing as Absta's "frustration". I really can't see how any person would be that "frustrated", and it's really just coming off as fake.

Like I'm sorry but town people don't just go "fuck this game. It makes me soooo angry *hulk*" for little reasons like that <___<

why aren't you voting for them?

~ Zar.

[Plessiezarus]

Umm, well, I obv can't vote for every suspicion I have Like, this is a really awkward question.

That's not what it seems, at least to me. Your statement implies "there's no way town acts that way"; which means you are convinced that this is behavior that can only come from scum. Obviously, you can only vote for your suspects one a time; but if you're convinced about TGAH is scum (which is what these two posts suggest), I'd expect you to vote for him unless you were at least equally sure of an alternate wagon. Are you really that sure Jason is scum?"

~Zar.

[Plessiezarus]

Ok so let's lynch TGAH.

Yeah, that sounds like a plan. VOTE: TGAH

I'm a friendly neighbor: at night I visit people and tell them who I am. It's a confirmable town role.

I don't understand how neighbor role equates to confirmable town role... I think Zdenek is modifying his fakeclaim.

Friendly Neighbour != Neighbourizer

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?tit ... _Neighbour

It's a necessarily town-aligned role.

(Will post more later; apparently Zar hasn't actually watched The Wire, so I need to explain flavour stuff to him.)

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

The problem with it being used as a fake claim though, he can be 'verified' by one of his lower suspected scum buddies. Who can say yes, I was neighborized.

Why did you quote my post when you obviously didn't read it? Friendly Neighbour is

not

the same as Neighborizer. The wiki page I linked to says it has to be town.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

I'm Wendell Orlando Blocker.

I'm a 3-shot neighborizer.

I think that's enough of a cc.

... but Neighborizer and Friendly Neighbor are

completely different roles

that simply happen to have similar names. How the fuck is this a counter-claim of any sort? It's quite possible you both have the roles you claim, it's quite possible that one or both of you is lying. They are different roles.

(Even if they were similar roles, that wouldn't really mean much. I remember that Zar and I had a "non-consecutive RBer" role in ADWD, and on Day 1 we were sceptical when somebody claimed Torturer (a role which includes RBing). The claim was true though, and both slots were town.)

Also, did you breadcrumb this role/name anywhere? (Obviously you're a replacement, but all the same.)

I don't really understand Sterling as Friendly Neighbor

or

Orlando as Neighborizer, by the way. Memory is that Faraday's role-names normally match up a bit better than this, but eh (that's just going on ASOIAF games anyway).

Still think TGAH is the best way to vote.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Doesn't he betray the Barksdale orginization?

He does, yes. Sterling turns out to be stealing money from D'Angelo's crew in the Pit, too.

But if anything, that makes me believe the name-claims

more

, really. (These aren't the names I'd expect Faraday to give out as safe fake-claims, I mean.)

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Actually the way Dan claimed, thinking he was counterclaiming, seems more townish.

Yeah, this seems correct to me (not sure I've convinced Zar though). The rest of Dan's behaviour isn't very townish, though? Meh. (Though I don't really think much of the supposed "scumslip".)

The worries about Zdenek just getting a (hypothetical) scumbuddy to confirm him are overblown. As long as he targets somebody most people have as a town-read, we're probably fine (because if he's scum, eventually we catch on to the fact they're lying, and then we've caught at least one scum we probably wouldn't have caught otherwise). Might be different if Zdenek had claimed 1-shot, but since he didn't ...

Similarly the discussion about both roles existing in the same game are a waste of time. They're not at all similar roles. And even if they were, that probably wouldn't stop Faraday from giving both to town anyway. He likes doing that sort of thing (I mentioned the ADWD game already; via IM, Zar reminded me of the Wheel of Time game on Westeros last year as well, I'm sure there are lots of other examples too and I might check his wiki page for some later). Either of them might be lying, but the two claims aren't really inter-connected in any way.

We should still be lynching TGAH.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

@Cerullen - I obviously know what a fucking FOS is, I was asking what McStab was suspicious for.
---
What's the case on TGAH?.

Hey, here's a novel idea: read the fucking thread instead of asking people to read it for you.

Doesn't he betray the Barksdale orginization?

He does, yes.

Sterling turns out to be stealing money from D'Angelo's crew in the Pit, too.

But if anything, that makes me believe the name-claims

more

, really. (These aren't the names I'd expect Faraday to give out as safe fake-claims, I mean.)

Is you throwing shade on zden in this post? And if you believe both name claims, why ur on dan still at the time of this post?

Is this more bad RP, or is this how you actually speak? (Either way you should stop.)

I'm not "throwing shade" on anybody . It's obvious from my post that I think the bolded sentnece is a reason to

believe

Zdenek's name-claim, not a reason to distrust him. (I stress "name-claim", not "claim" in general, because I have no real idea if either role-claim is genuine. Not really interested in wasting time today wondering, either. It's something to leave to Day 2.)

My vote has never been on Dan and I would like to know why you thought it was. I mean, there's a vote count right above you. Did you confuse my name with somebody else?

(All the people you fos are probably town. Get better reads please.)

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

@Plez - You never seen that question before?
Seriously, go fuck yourself.

Our heads are too far apart to be able to ,

I'm not going to finish reading 10+ (boring) pages when one of you voters could just tell me.

This is what you've been doing all game though. How about you start putting some content as supposed to it being spoonfed to you?

~Zar.

~Tag fixed

[Plessiezarus]

I corrected myself about your vote not being on dan. It was right below the post you just read off.

I know that you corrected yourself. That doesn't explain why you made the mistake in the first place. Why did you

think

I was voting Dan?

unvote; vote plessbians

. BET nobody got a townread on you either...

... you're not very good at reading, are you?

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

This game became incredibly slow over the weekend, didn't it?

Oh, but I really dont know why/who I mistook you for, ples. Had to be someone who had a similar posting style, I guess(?). I'd like to ask, is there anything you can extract from me if I could remember the name/reason I thought you were voting Dan?

If you gave me a convincing answer I'd have a better sense of how you were approaching the game which would, ideally, allow me to stengthen my town-read on your slot. (We had Baby Spice as a weakish town-read before she replaced out.) As it is, I have no real sense of how your thought process is working. Your suggestion we were voting ActionDan just seemed to come from nowhere. (I don't think any of the people with votes on ActionDan in 901 have a similar style to me/Zar, really, but meh . Maybe?).

In fact, despite asking for "good cases" in 776 you've not really commented on or addressed the popular wagons at all, as far as I can tell. The people you've decided to focus on aren't getting lynched today. (By the way, did camn really go from being a town-read to being a scum-read between 777 and 915? Why?)

It's hard for me to tell at the moment if you're just skimming the thread and throwing out random reads because of laziness or lack of time or whatever, or if this is a deliberate strategy.

I'm looking for the case on TGAH but can't find it, I'll keep at it to see if I agree but until then I'd only be sheeping and that won't help you guys establish reads and what not.

Just how hard are you looking? Lots of people have explained why TGAH is scummy.

Zar and I explained our scum-read in 633. It's basically a combination of the slot's limited activity and overly safe opinions.

Some people (definitely sottyrulez and SAD, anyway - can't remember who else) have also said they find roflcopter's apparent willingness to let Konowa take charge of the hydra suspicious. (I've seen both heads as town once - in Zar's recent Normal game, which I followed a bit - but I'm not familiar with their meta beyond that.) Other people (Benmage, SAD again) have also suggested that Konowa's frustration in 691 seems forced. I'd link, but this stuff isn't that hard to find?

I dont have a good alternative lynch to TGAH.
Off the cuff? absta101, ChannelDelibird, Safetydance or BT.

Absta would be a good lynch (maybe better than TGAH, really). But I don't think there's time to get a wagon going on that slot.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Read the claim. Don't really think it particularly "feels town". It's a claim I could easily see coming from either town or scum. Still happy with a TGAH lynch given the rest of his posts.

Any double-checking or reading over at all would have made it clear that they weren't claiming the same role.

It's not exactly the same, but neighbourizor and masonizor are really, really close to the same thing.

Neighborizer and masonizer might be close to the same thing, but the roles that Zdenek and ActionDan

actually claimed

are not. How is this still a thing?

Zdenek claimed Friendly Neighbour. A Friendly Neighbour can target another player at night - the target will be told by the mods that the Friendly Neighbour is town-aligned. They do not communicate in any other way, and they do not set up a QT with their target.

ActionDan claimed Neighborizer. A Neighborizer can target another player at night -- the mods will set up a QT for the Neighborizer and his target. The Neighborizer can be town or scum, and neither he nor his target knows the alignment of the other.

Their claimed roles are

not similar

, except for a quirk of naming.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Pless - I think it's pretty easy to mix those two up.

Definitely not saying people can't mix them up given only the names; as I said earlier, I suspect Dan might be town just because I think he did exactly that (and therefore decided he was really counter-claiming).

But it's pretty ridiculous that people are still mixing them up

now

, despite multiple people explaining the difference, posting links to the wiki and so on.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

camn

-- Zar and I are working under the assumption that TGAH knew the other members of the Police faction, but that they didn't know him. In ADWD, Faraday gave one of the scum factions a traitor who knew the other three scum in that faction; they didn't know the identity of their traitor, but they knew a player with that role name existed and was recruitable. Probably something similar this game?

So TGAH's flip seems to point pretty strongly to Jason and Nostrodeus not being Police -- TGAH seemed pretty serious about trying to get both of them lynched -- but we probably can't clear anybody on the grounds that they voted for or claimed to suspect TGAH. We haven't had time to check connections with absta yet, obviously.

Pretty confident that at least one of SAD and CDB is scum, actually. TGAH's flip has strengthened our scum-reads on both of them. Zar's IMing me via his mobile at the minute, so a fuller post might have to wait until he can get to a computer.

VOTE: CDB for now though.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Serious question, SAD:

Fuck you absta.

Fucking hell I hate people like that.

So besides Absta being 100% fucking useless, [...]

Why are you upset that absta played badly? Feel like he let you down?

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

...How is this a serious question?

What did absta do that prompted your "fuck you for being so useless absta" reaction? Why are you angry that absta, who was scum, played badly?

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Assuming that TGAH's role means that he knows who the scum are, but they do not know who he is. In this situation, as I think I read someone mention,

he will try minimaize attacks on his "masters" and attempt to push lynches away from them

.

Hmm. Kind of like this, you mean?

dayne is town. his roleplay is the terrible-est, fakest reason to suspect someone ever. its not even hard to understand. its low hanging fruit for scum, something easy and mindless to attack. looking at you here, benmage and safety dance

Sotty, would you respond to 304 and give your thoughts on that and how it affects your read on Jason? Would you also address Jason’s scumread on Dayne?

your [SAD] whole case is bad gambit = scum...

That’s not the whole case at all. Why are you not addressing other people’s issues with you? Your “content” is a bunch of noise, examples have been posted several times, and that your push on both Dayne and Vifam are for things that are not indicative alignment.

TGAH -- according to 125 / 141, both your heads have (had?) a town-read on Dayne. How and why did you come to this read?

the terrible attempted wagon on him for the rp. easy target is easy. didn't i already say this? [...]

i do wish i could vote for more people at the same time though. peta, absta, safety and plessie all need the rope.

Jason is scum due to 1) saying Dayne is scum because he's trying hard to look Barksdale (wtf?)

Point stands that attacking SAD over the RP for “trying to look Barksdale” is an easy crap push that scum love to do. Do you disagree that this shouldn’t have given me a early Town read on SAD?

If somebody flips traitor, having spent most of day 1 attacking player X for, in effect, daring to suspect player Y ... well, this isn't rocket science, isn't it? Which of X and Y looks like town? Which looks like scum?

(Players defended like this other than Arthur include CDB and Vifam. Possible defence of McStab/Zdenek is there too, I guess, but Zdenek's town unless Benmage is scum, and Benmage probably isn't scum, so...]

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

What are you going to say?

Well, you spent the entire D1 adamantly defending Jason as town so uhh what the fuck

It's a new day, and what would be the fun without completely 180ing on a stance?

... I think "what the fuck?" is still an appropriate question.

Ignoring your own meta-based defence, why would TGAH, as a traitor, spend so much time pushing for Jason's lynch if Jason were Police?

I'm kinda confused by Plessie because their follow up seems to largely focus on SAD, but their vote is actually on CDB.

We're working on a new hydra post about CDB now, but since SAD is the one posting, he's the one whose more recent posts I'm going to react to. CDB is marginally more suspicious, but there's really not much in it.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Not sure what to make of ActionDan's last few posts.

Don't understand why he picked DV to neighbourize. Seems a really bad choice. His responses to that question aren't very informative (because they're largely generic "here are some things you could consider when choosing who to neighbourzie" responses, and most of the scenarios he gives obviously don't apply). But if he's replacing out, I'm not really interested in talking to him further. Will wait to see if a replacement really happens, first.

(SAD's "this is just like MoS replacing out in ADWD!" is ridiculous, though. I don't believe for a second that SAD thinks "angrily replacing out after an argument with Tammy" is a scum-tell. Arthur played in NY 160B, after all.)

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

ChannelDelibird

Another proper hydra post. Basically an update to our previous CDB read. The flips we've got so far have strengthed our scum-read considerably.

Interactions with TGAH

(Not looking at CDB's behaviour towards TGAH, just the other way around, since it seems safe to assume CDB didnt know TGAH was a traitor.)

In 76, TGAH asks DV to explain his vote for CDB: "why is CDB scum?". (DV never does expain why - he immediately unvotes, and the next time he mentions CDB he's talking about him as a town-read.) TGAH doesn't follow up on this question at all, despite the lack of answer. This suggests he didn't care

why

DV was voting CDB, just the fact that DV

was

voting CDB. Once DV stopped voting, he didn't care anymore.

TGAH replies to and agrees with a post of CDB's in 115 ("qft") but otherwise that's almost the last time the slot cares about CDB at all.

TGAH only mentions CDB again in 691:

If Jason was so worried about scum "fitting in" why does he have no comment on CDB's early posting about absta?

Not sure I can see the reason for bringing CDB up here at all (it's not something TGAH ever comes back to as a reason for Jason being scum). But more importantly, if TGAH found CDB's "early posting about absta" suspicious (or at least more suspicious than anything Jason had pointed out), why did he not mention it at the time?

Interactions with absta

CDB votes for absta in 14, apparently seriously, because of absta's 8. As clarified a few posts later:

what I'm not saying is "this is proof that absta is scum". I'm saying "this reason why absta could be scum is a better reason to vote him than it is to leave a random vote on somebody else".

CDB unvotes absta in 114 in order to vote SafetyDance. Never mentions any sort of scum-read on absta again. In fact, other than telling absta to "try harder ... do better" in 283, never mentions absta again in any context.

Absta never responded to CDB's semi-serious vote on him. In fact, absta never mentions CDB or responds to anything CDB says. Ever.

Can definitely see absta and CDB as partners. A little fake-suspicion early on, which absta doesn't care about in the slighest, then they both ignore each other for the rest of the day. Seems pretty typical behaviour for partners.

Other Stuff

As we said yesterday, CDB has some odd reasons for not voting people.

Suggesting in 311 that Jason looks bad ("I'd be very strongly considering a vote on Jason") but that he's not worth considering as a suspect because sotty/Zach are town-reading him just feels ridiculous. It's an excuse not to have a meaningful read on him: if he happens to be scum, then sottyrulez is to blame, if he's town then everybody should have known it all along.

Likewise the way CDB goes from suspecting DV in 311 to deciding he actually sounds town in 501. We don't feel 483 was a particularly town-sounding post at all. It feels like CDB first decided to change reads on DV, and

then

looked for a reason to do so.

Finally, while CDB did vote TGAH, remember that we're working under the assumption the scum didn't know TGAH was a traitor. So any scum joining that wagon would have presumably thought they were joining a mislynch. The only reason CDB gives for suspecting TGAH seems to be that fact TGAH was voting for Jason. And CDB had himself suggested Jason was suspicious and that he would be voting for him if sotty/Zach weren't town-reading him.

This seems like a very weak reason to vote somebody, really, and CDB's "I'm happy to to move onto TGAH, as discussed before" in 931 comes across as CDB being somewhat defensive about joining a wagon he actually assumes is going to be a bad one. The insistence that the TGAH scum read has been "discussed before" reads like a pre-emptive "no, I wasn't just voting him because he was the largest wagon!" excuse.

[Plessiezarus]

There are only a couple ways I could see tgah going after their master that hard: if they didn't know the identity of all the police or if they were actually trying to draw the nightkill because they were recruitable. Iirc in academy the traitor was recruitable. There is the wifom thing I guess.

Can't really imagine a traitor who didn't know the identity of all the police going hard after anybody . Seems too risky for them -- what if they pick on the wrong person? Unless they thought that person was definitely not-police for some reason (because they'd attacked people the traitor knew were police, maybe?) I guess. But TGAH's attack on Jason seems to come about too early for that. (There are better ways to draw a night-kill, too.)

I'm really not seeing how ActionDan wanting to keep the neighbour secret is scummy

It seemed more ... needlessly stubborn than anything else, really. Kind of pointless to do as any alignment. But what do you think about his choice of target?

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Hmm. Kind of like this, you mean?

Sure *shrug*

I really can't control what TGAH said, neither am I going to analyze myself, neither am I really interested in answering these questions seriously. Because... well, have fun trying to appeal it to other people, but I have literally 0 idea of what you're attempting to achieve by questioning me about it

I'll even use one of your smileys to answer back:

No silly, we weren't questioning

you

. We were pointing out to the rest of the thread you look incredibly suspicious.

And you don't need to give up yet

, here are our thoughts on your interactions:

Umm, because he was useless? I didn't really wanna be a dick when he was alive b/c I thought there was the possibilty that he was town and honestly struggling, but now that I know he was scum it was fucked up?

Is that so? The way we're seeing it, to us your "frustration" reads fake and is a lot more consistent with your Dayne play in the Mystery Hall of Fame, where you actively used AtE to try to latch into a town read for the Goons in your team.

Why would you want to yell to flipped scum for being useless if you're town? This does not make any sense in that scenario. A look at yout ISO combined with absta's points at a lot of coaching and some distancing going on.

For somebody who stated concerns on absta's activity in #321 the posts on which you follow on his later contributions do not express any hint of degree of rising suspicion (it doesn't seem like you ever seriously pondered his activity was indicative of his alignment, despite your remarks on your ooc post), #280, #315, #399 and #904 are a lot more likely to come from a buddy that is coaching another into being more active.

In fact, your response to TML's #390

For people on the Safetydance wagon: Why him over Absta? I really feel that Absta is display many of the same signs that Safety is except on a much worse level.

There is always the small hope that Absta will contribute something good though.

Looks like an attempt to take some steam off the scrutiny his way. Which is pretty consistent with your various deflections to answer our #409 question in your following posts.

If we look at absta's thoughts on your slot, he occasionally pretended to suspect you, but managed to list you as a "null" in #514 while he tended to attack people who went after you. This is behavior that fits with how a buddy would act around another that is on a relatively good position. Mild suspicion that is later disregarded, soft defense and posturing are all signs a possible partnership between you two.

Not to mention that your #1072-#1073 are, surprisingly naive as Pless indicated; you were in NY160B and saw the whole DGB 12 hour angry replace out.

~Zar.

[Plessiezarus]

Dudes I DO NOT want to lynch: Camn, Plessiezarus, Jason, Nostredeus, SafetyDance, Benmage, Librarian, Zdenek, DV (uneasy about this one though)

This list matches up fairly well with our current town-reads (not in this order, obviously, but then this list isn't meant to be ordered, right?).

We'd add you and sottyrulez as town-reads (despite sotty's odd reversal re:Jason today), and wouldn't have TML (who's definitely still null for us) or DV (who

was

null, but has dropped down to weak-scum recently), but otherwise that's it. Can you explain what we're missing in TML's play?

kuribo
Safetydance, ChannelDelibird
The Mini-Librarian, Deasvail, JasonT1981
sottyrulez, BT, Kise
Plessiezarus, camn, Zdenek, Nostredeus
Cerulean, Benmage

How can Zdenek be a weaker town-read than Benmage?

If Zdenek is scum, then Benmage must also be scum, since Benmage would have had to have lied about getting the Friendly Neighbour confirmation. In other words, Zdenek being town is now a necessary precondition for Benmage being town. Logically, it must be at least as likely Zdenek is town as it is that Benmage is town.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

I haven't had the chance to discuss CDB's response with Pless, though I'm pretty confident he survived nemo?

Here are my thoughts in regards to CDB's posts. From reading, there's an air of reservation in them that doesn't sit right with me.

I'm pretty happy with the votes I made yesterday instead of going after absta and it's unfair to say that I bailed on a scumread or anything like that.

You voted TML in RVS, absta, SafetyDance, and finally TGAH, you dismissed the reasoning to vote absta as argumenting there were more interesing things going on; you had a vote on SafetyDance who you now have as leaning town. Your vote on TGAH comes at a point were the wagon is very much a given. As Cerulean points, you are now voting Jason out of a rekindlement with your D1 arguments only after a vote provided by a slot you don't have a read on. One of your most solid town reads is somebody you considered voting in #311 as an alternative to your SD vote, a wagon you preferred (#429) for even after you had stated thinking their push on Arthur seemed genuine in #311.

So, the question is: Why are you happy with your D1 votes again?

Apparently I found DeasVail's 483 more compelling than you did. OK. That happens. Again, if that's your view, I can see why you'd decide it makes me scummy, I guess, but personally I don't see that there's anything more there than two differing reactions to DV's post.

See, here your just saying "too bad, we differ in views". Which if you are town, doesn't help anybody try to understand your mindset. You haven't discussed why you thought the post was compelling, you're just saying we see it differently from you and dismissing it.

Also at a glance, the lack of any other suspects in provided in #1153 rubs me off the wrong way.

~ Zar.

[Plessiezarus]

judging the flips we've had since day 1, i'd reckon scum SAD would have to be A+ fucking stupid to say this:

Nah the east-side people are not that important in s1. I can see 3 cops + like Bubbles as a traitor to the cops + Omar as an SK.

This is a very, very good point.

Now I'm feeling stupid. Why is this a good point? What makes you both think that SAD wouldn't say this as scum?

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

flavor suggests an SK

I don't think the flavour suggests any such thing.

And you think a SK would be daft enough to waste a kill on absta? Knowing how lynchable abstra was? Really?

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

I'll make a real post tomorrow or Wednesday as will other head but now *sleep*

Would like your (collective) read on SAD when you make this post.

rephrase. Why are you suspicious that she's a sk?

because when person A spends all day trying to get person B lynched and fails, but then person B turns up dead overnight, it raises questions in my mind

But ... camn didn't "spend all day" trying to get absta lynched. At all . She only made a big push for an absta lynch in 947, by which point an absta lynch was looking unlikely because the deadline was approaching and TGAH was already at L-1. Previously she'd expressed some mild suspicion of absta, but really no more than anybody else had. And why would a hypothetical SK want to actually kill the people they "suspected"?

And, again ... multiple people had absta as a serious suspect at the end of day 1. He wasn't quite as popular a suspect as TGAH/McStab/Dan, but it was pretty close. There was a very good chance he'd have been lynched today. He would have been a terrible kill choice for a hypothetical SK, and a very sensible choice for a town-aligned vig.

I'm leaning towards thinking that the Police were aware who the traitor was rather than the other way around because Absta had almost nothing to say about TGAH, and kind of think that if he didn't know that he was a (potential) buddy that he'd have been more inclined to attack him.

If you think TGAH didn't know who the Police were, what do you read into his push on Jason?

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Guys I really want Jason's flip now.

[...]

Don't make question my read on you again...

You certainly should question your read on SAD, since your given reasons for thinking he's town aren't very good.

SAD

-- what made you say this:

Hold up Jason might be scum. I'll look at this later but something seems odd.

Surely not TGAH's 550? But then what "seemed odd"?

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Not impressed by kuribo's attempt to 1v1 agaisnt Benmage. That's the worst kind of pointless grandstanding. Benmage isn't getting lynched -- not today, probably not ever. The AtE spam is kind of draining to read, too, but that's presumably the point.

Also not impressed by SAD's reversion to one-liner spam. That sort of "lol, I'm not even reading the thread but I'm going to throw out random ideas and take no responsibility for them later" attitude might have stopped people lynching him in the Westeros game, but it shouldn't in this game. He's still a very good bet to be scum (persausive though the set-up speculation of people who aren't even familiar with the flavour may be to some people ).

Happy to see votes on CDB. More would be better.

Still town-reading both Jason and sotty. Not really interested in the little back and forth they've been having, since it feels like the sort of meta-argument nobody else can really hope to follow.

Still not sure what to make of TML. Looked at the games Cerulean linked to earlier. Not convinced by the meta argument though. Meh.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

(Not signing this because it's a proper hydra post.)

Since we're happy with the CDB wagon (and have actually more or less resigned ourselves to the fact there won't be a meaningful SAD wagon today), we decided to have a second look at some of our weaker reads.

Zoneace

While there isn't anything to look at from ZONEACE yet, the slot inherited the weak town read we had on SafetyDance. This read was based on our impression that Safety's annoyance with Arthur's Roleplaying early on seemed genuine and townish. Further, given Safety's apparent lack of experience with Faraday-modded games, the reasoning he gives to suspect TGAH's claim on 1002 struck us both as more likely to come from town (especially given the later gloating "see, I was right!" in 1129). Obviously the reasoning isn't actually correct, but we can see a town!SafetyDance believing it.

Zar also got a townish impression of SD's attempts to logically analyze the NK in 1127, He thinks that scum wouldn't want to tie themselves to the kill at all, even if were some ploy to mislead.

That said, this remains a very weak town-read. Interested in seeing more from Zoneace as soon as possible.

Camn

Probably should strengthen our town-read on camn.

Don't think absta would have pushed for her in the way he did if she's scum with him. Don't think she'd respond by trying to get a counter-wagon going on him (or, rather, if she did she'd have done so earlier, I think?).

In general, we also feel that scum would work harder to tie their reads into other peoples' thoughts and not make such a point of either pushing unpopular or alternate wagons or coming up with new reasons to suspect people (case in point, her CDB post in 1387).

Kise

BabySpice was a (weak) town-read, though reading back I can't remember why . Interesting to note that she never gave a read on absta.

Trying not to read too much into the fact she replaced out while remaining active in other games (Zar says BabySpice tends to lurk hard as scum).

Already went into why we didn't like Kise's first few replacement posts. Rather than talking about the claims or the popular wagons, he started FoSing people that weren't really suspected and were in no danger of being lynched. Very easy way to avoid accusations of lurking while not saying anything that really matters.

And he's been essentially awol all of day 2. When he first replaced in, he said he'd be in "active lurk mode" until he got his new laptop. According to 1140, that new laptop arrived on Sunday. And yet his activity hasn't improved at all. He's still just coasting.

Not sure if the slot belongs in the null tier or the weak-scum tier, but it's not great either way.

[Plessiezarus]

Pless: your thoughts?

Don't really know what you expect us to say. Of course reads will change over the course of a game. That

is

natural. But your read on DV doesn't seem to have changed naturally. You went from leaning scum on DV as late as 311 to town-reading him in 501. In fact, though you expressed some more doubt at the time, he's now one of your top town reads. And all seemingly because of that one post, which we don't think feels very townish and which you don't want to deeply analyse. What's "natural" about that?

Have you given any other reasons to town-read DV? Do you have any?

Colour us unconvinced.

(If you wanted us to comment on the game having "too many walls", well. You're wrong? Game could do with a few more walls and far fewer pointless one-liners.)

[Plessiezarus]

Pless - how many of these people do you think are town?

kuribo
Kise
JasonT1981
ChannelDelibird

Well, we're both confident on Jason being town at this point. We don't have a town read on any of the other three. But I don't think we're

that

good to have pinned the scumteam with the other three, so idk at least one should be scummy town? :shrug:

If I had to sort them by strength of our scum reads it'd be CDB > kuribo > Kise, though, in case our earlier posts didn't make that clear.

(Why do we have to guess though? I mean, what was the point of this question?)

~ Zar.

[Plessiezarus]

I'm assuming we'd have four with a traitor? idk?

~.Zar

[Plessiezarus]

I'm assuming we'd have four with a traitor? idk?

Wow.

Assuming you've taken math lessons:

absta + X + X + Traitor = 4. A four player scum-team PLUS a traitor would be OP in a 19 player game IMO.

kuribo: still don't think the absta kill makes sense from a SK's POV. Not that it isn't implausible, but just it seems subpar.

~Zar.

[Plessiezarus]

I was trying to get their response subtly, but thanks for making it obv like that

Yes, "subtle" is definitely the word that springs to mind when I think about your approach to this game . Actually, words like "desperately opportunistic" and "suspicious as fuck" seem rather more apposite.

wondering if Pless avoided me and answered Dayne out of fear he'd be dragged into a shouting match with me

This is exactly correct.

Zar

didn't

want get into a shouting match with you; he's played with you before and found that experience quite tedious enough. (In fact, he has made multiple posts in our QT telling me to avoid replying to you. This thread has been cruelly robbed of some heavy-handed sarcasm as a result.) Zar's not a complete idiot, in other words. Why would anyone want to get into a shouting match with you?

I miss petapan

Yeah, because he's easier to lynch than me?

Yeah, sure, people dislike your posts because you're "hard to lynch" . That must be it. It isn't because of the bad-tempered and unfunny self-aggrandizement at all. Well done.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Oh and pless - later tonight when I get home I'll talk about Arthur.

Still waiting . Less wasting time arguing with kuribo, please, and more time doing this.

Well, we're both confident on Jason being town at this point.

Is this only because of interactions with TGAH?

Pretty much? I just can't believe a traitor would go after a member of the Police like that.

I mean, I guess Jason could be third party, but I really don't think the game is multifactional (the absta kill doesn't make sense as a kill from scum).

I hadn't thought about the precise set-up much, to be honest, other than explaining some flavour stuff to Zar. But I actually think 4 communicating scum plus a traitor is very possible. I've modded a game or two with Faraday, albeit on Westeros and not here, and I know he likes games where the town can safely mislynch four times, but preferably no more than that. 14:4(1) fits that guideline?

(But, then again, Zar has modded games with Faraday too, and more recently, and he thinks 15:3(1) is more likely, so. Meh. Not really sure there's any point speculating about it on day 2.)

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Anyway, other stuff:

Zar and I have yet to talk to each other much about CDB's latest posts, but initial impression is somewhat positive. Don't agree with a few of CDB's reads, but the general approach to analysing his wagon seems quite sincere. Not sure I like the fact he's only started to post like this when he's been forced to defend himself though .

(A SAD lynch would probably make me happier than a CDB lynch at this point, but ... yeah.)

On the other hand, DV looks more scummy than when we last read him. The waffle in posts like 1145 and 1344 in regards to CDB rubs us the wrong way. Just feel like he's working a bit too hard to keep his options open.

Thinking about it though, I don't think DV is likely to be scum with Kuribo/Dan. Having a scum-buddy who didn't have a town-read on you "confirm" your role, and then almost immediately flipflop their read on you as DV did (897, 1057, 1081) just seems a really bad idea. Probably at least one of that pair is town.

I do like the fact DV is voting for SAD, but the reasons he gives for doing so are pretty terribly weak.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Prodding Zoneace

*TWITCH* *TWITCH* *TWITCH*

~Zar.

[Plessiezarus]

You say tomato, I say potato. Being afraid of having attention drawn to you is not a town mindset. Look at Ben, did he just "avoid replying?" Newwwwp.

Remind me again which game(s) I've played with Zar?

ortolan's mole game (1303) or the one with LLD vs. AV's 1 vs. 1 and your continued chase of AV after LLD's flip. (I think you were scum there, but you weren't lynched after my death and I bothered asking ortolan who the scum was after it). I died in N2.

Also, your act in 1303 was attention drawing an all time high.

So, me ignoring you is more of an avoiding a pointless time-waster with an attention whore kind of thing.

~.Zar

[Plessiezarus]

Why would jason be 3rd party?

Not saying we think he is at all. Only noting that our main reason for clearing him (the fact he was attacked on day 1 so much by TGAH), really only technically show he's not Police. But for now I'm working with the assumption that not-Police and town are synonyms, so it's only an academic distinction.

Plessie

the kuribo wagon is calling. He's your #2.

Would really prefer to lynch SAD, who both Zar and I think is the scummiest player in the game at this point. Kuribo's on the short-list for scum after that, sure, but I'm not completely sold. In the QT, Zar has started to really push hard for BT as scum, but I'm certainly far from convinced on that slot. I really should thoroughly read CDB's posts about BT and look into the claimed link with absta. (On the other hand, it's Friday night, so I'll probably be

going out drinking

staying in to do my German grammar homework instead .)

Don't suppose we can talk you into voting for SAD? What's your read on him?

Plessiez, do you think SAD is scum? If so, why? (I'm sorry if you've said this before. If so, just link to it)

Er, yes, we think SAD is scum.

Have said why in, among other places, 1082 and 1108.

In brief, we think SAD's scum because of the way TGAH aggressively supported him on day 1. Because he never really pushed absta as a suspect on day 1 (and instead seemed to coach him or defend his low activity without ever giving him as a town-read). Because absta in turn claimed some early suspicion of SAD but had him firmly in the "null" tier once the time came for serious reads. Because his reaction to absta's night-kill seemed more like that of an irritated partner who was annoyed at a "useless" teammate than like something we'd expect from town. And because he doesn't seem to have the confidence in pushing his reads that I'd expect from SAD as town (and the reads he gives are frequently inconsistent with things he's previously said in the game).

(I'm also tempted to say that I think his over-the-top spamming and smug boasts about being really good as scum are more likely to come from scum!SAD than town!SAD? But that's really just based on a quick skim of Open 472 (where he was scum) and NY 160 (where he was town), together with a memory of his last scum game on Westeros and a healthy dose of confirmation bias. Not even going to start trying to read all of SAD's posts on this site for a real meta-based case, because life is only so long, and even reading about the use of the subjunctive in written German seems more appealing.)

It'd be cool if people said they agree with me if they do because so far I'm still assuming sotty won't be lynched today

That is a very sensible assumption.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Plessiezarus, vote SAD with me?

I know you kind of think I'm scum, but if I am, then joining a wagon with me as the only voter is something that scum probably wouldn't do, so you could be cleared!

Heh. Making fun of Tammy is always amusing (and that

is

what we're doing here, right?), but ... given that you asked for other people's take on SAD in 1545, then asked us in particular to explain why we thought he was scum in 1580, we're a bit puzzled (or maybe just irritated) that this is the only thing you have to say in response to our answer in 1603.

(And we're kind of baffled that you claim to find 1614 scummy, too. That whole series of posts from Cerulean is exactly the sort of thing we'd expect from town!Tammy.)

[Plessiezarus]

I don't get the 'making fun of Tammy' part.

I thought your 1621 was supposed to be a reference to this:

It's kind of like his Post 485 where he's pointing out that camn is voting with pless while at the same time thinking pless might be scum. Scum LOVE using this tell when in reality it means absolutley nothing but it looks good, right?

Town don't pay great attention all the time to who is voting whom and will vote sometimes without regard to who else is voting their scum read

.

Never mind, I guess.

I don't find Cerulean's posts scummy (If I did, then yes there'd be a problem). It was BT's post I was talking about.

Oh. I thought your "PEdit: Reading that post" was a reference to the post BT was quoting. Never mind that either, then.

(Apparently I'm not very good at reading things today.)

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

If I have missed anyone shoot them at me

You're missing reads on me+Zar, camn, and Zoneace.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

VOTE: Arthur

In a nutshell: Arthur's play is suspicious on its own; TGAH's interactions around his slot match with what we would expect from a buddy + interaction with absta's slot makes them likely partners. Pless doesn't really get BT as scum; but we'd be okay with either Kise or kuribo.

~ Zar.

[Plessiezarus]

I'm actually a bit annoyed as to the distraction the whole speculation on whether I slipped or not has caused. For the one thing it isn't a slip. English isn't my first language and I guess my wording needs clarification.

My response to Zdenek is based on the belief of there being a single scum faction of four. However, what I failed to convey was that I wasn't willing to bet the game on all of the team being among our scumreads because as much as I want to, I don't pressume of having divination skills? :shrug:

At the same time, while i think this is 15:3(1) as opposed to other setup possibilities, the big sign up front doesn't make it implausible that there is a chance of having more than a scum faction in play. While I'm working under my assumed scenario, I consider the possibilities of others.

~.Zar

What the guy in the party hat said.

~.Zar

[Plessiezarus]

Kise's 1604 is a sufficiently terrible post that I'd probably rather vote for him than Kuribo if the SAD wagon doesn't go through. A week spent reading the game from the beginning and all it does is strengthen his initial half-arsed FoSes? Ugh.

What's going on is that the first post practically says "I'm playing with the assumption that there are 3 scum remaining" while the replies to people

pointing that out

are "no way, 4+1 would be OP", when 3 scum remaining points to 4+1. I'm not even sure if this is a slip or not... I'm generally lost.

Having had a slightly frustrating conversation with Zar about this myself today (in which I tried -- and I think failed -- to explain to him exactly what you're pointing out) I can sympathise with your confusion .

I mean, sure, there is some tension between Zar's guess that the setup is 15:3(1) and his willingness to consider the idea that all three of {CDB,Kise,Kuribo} are scum.

But the thing is,

Zar is not the most logical of thinkers

Zar isn't the sort of player to start off by trying to make some assumptions about how the game is set up and to then proceed on the basis that that assumption is correct. He's prone to second-guessing himself a lot, and this is especially true when it comes to set-up speculation. I think a better paraphrase of his first post is "I'm not willing to rule out the idea there are 3 scum remaining" while his replies should be read as "but I don't think it's likely".

Actually it's weird that they don't give real reads on each other. I don't remember what arhtur thought of bt in mafia stuck but I remember that bt did not trust us much and Arthur is acting quite a bit different here than he was in that game...it seems odd to me that bt really hasn't mentioned him.

SAD definitely mentioned Vifam though (although his reasons for town-reading Vifam were rather foolish and somewhat at odds with his other posts).

(Also, can you quote some specific examples of BT being "oily"? I don't really know what you mean by that.)

--

I'm feeling somewhat frustrated by the number of people who've agreed SAD is suspicious but aren't joining his lynch, also. Maybe instead of us all talking about how it would be nice to vote for him if only his wagon were bigger we could all, I dunno, just vote for him?

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

It troubles me that ZONEACE replaced in almost a week ago and has not provided any content, while he's been posting elsewhere on site during this time.

~. Zar

[Plessiezarus]

Can we Lynch BT, guys? Please?

No.

Can we lynch Arthur? Then he can go to the dead thread and yell at absta for being "useless" some more .

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

I mean, really. Compare this post:

Hmm I can't tell if DV is just bad at explaining his thoughts and always this wishy-wash or he's just scum.

with this one:

Hey Arthur! Why are you [...] not addressing pless or dv's suspicion of you hen they are actually calling or your lynch?

[...] Pless, and to a lesser extent [dv], have showed their thought process and at least I can keep up with what and how they're thinking even if I know they're wrong?

First SAD attacks DV, saying that DV is either scum or "bad at explaining his thoughts". Then he justifies his focus on Jason on the grounds that DV has "showed [his] thought process and I least I can keep up with what and how they're thinking". And the second post comes with 30 minutes of the first.

How can anyone who isn't just making shit up from post to post go from attacking somebody for being "bad at explaining their thoughts" to praising them for showing their thought process and insisting "I can keep up with what and how they're thinking". I mean, come

on

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

And it was absolutely day 2. Dan told deas about his claim after claiming in here. Deas wasn't neighborized until night one. Get to stepping. You're done.

The "counter-claim" definitely happened on day 1.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

I'm led to think that kuribo's #1758 makes the slot more likely lazy town. I mean, the "CAUGHT YOU IN A INCONSISTENCY" feels genuine and I think kuribo!scum would have been pretty clear of when and what his predecessor claimed.

So... can we all proceed to lynch Arthur now?

~Zar.

[Plessiezarus]

The fact is, BT acts as if dan said to himself "Hmmm, friendly neighbor, neighborizor, I'll claim here and the town will never know they're two different things!"

This isn't what BT is saying though. He's saying that Dan (as scum) really did think his role was similar to Zdenek's, and "counter-claimed" because he was planning to claim

anyway

and didn't think people would believe both roles could be town.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

sotty

-- what is your read on Arthur and why?

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Gut instinct is to believe's Kise's claim, at least for now. I mean, the claim itself is incredibly half-arsed (spreading "I'm that guy people were talking about before. Er, I'm a doctor. My flavour name is Levy. Oh, right, and I healed Cerulean last night." over a series of posts is pretty much exactly how you

shouldn't

claim a power role). Being inept isn't a scum-tell though?

Having a role-claim to fall back on might explain why Kise was so unworried about drawing attention, I guess. And Levy as Doctor does make a lot of flavour sense (given that police's night-kills are described as "arrests").

Kise

-- can you link us to a past game in which you claimed a power role?

Couldn't find any sign of crumbs is Baby Spice's few posts, but I'm not sure I want to read much into that. Especially since she apparently wasn't at all familiar with the flavour. SAD is still a better lynch.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

sotty

-- what is your read on Arthur and why?

If I'm on the spot, I'd say town based on tone. That's not a strong read though.

If you think SAD's town because of his "tone", you really should read Open 472.

As for our case against him ... it's not just based on an associative tell. Arthur certainly does make a lot of sense as scum with both TGAH and absta based on their posts, but his posts are also suspicious in their own right.

* There's his reaction to absta's NK, for a start, in 1013. Why does town get

angrier

about somebody being useless when they learn that person

wasn't trying to be helpful anyway

? That doesn't make sense. This reads much more like the reaction of angry scum who is irritated that his buddy played badly and got himself killed.

* There's also his attempt to shift attention away from absta, in 309, 497. Not because absta seemed town to him, but because of "the small hope that Absta will contribute something". In fact, despite suggesting as early as 321 that absta might have been faking how overwhelmed he was "just as an excuse to lurk", SAD never did anything to follow up on any suspicions of absta. This isn't what I'd expect from Arthur if he were town.

* The somewhat gloating tone of posts like 268, 1159 is also something we think is much more likely to come from scum!Arthur than town!Arthur. Agree with Tammy's take on this.

* Arthur has thrown out lots of ideas or reads that we just don't feel fit with his earlier posts (for instance, there's the fact he claims in 445 to have had a town-read on Vifam based on posts Vifam made

before

268, in which Arthur insisted that town-reads on Vifam were "hilariously naive") or that we simply don't believe Arthur can think are true (see, for instance, his claim in 1072 that Dan replacing out the way he did is "MoS-scum from ADWD all over again" -- Arthur has played in games, and recently, in which people argued with Tammy and replaced out, as town. His attempts to suggest the act of angrily replacing out is inherently suspicious are disingenuous.)

* In fact, his choice of targets reeks of opportunism. He throws out unexplained reads, and talks about people being town or scum, but he's more than happy to drop those reads for no reason if he can be part of an easy lynch. (See, for instance, his weak town read on Kise in 1079,1231, followed by his more recent vote. He's not given any reason to stop town-reading Kise, he hasn't even noted that he's ignoring his earlier read. But Kise looked like an easy lynch, and that seems to be all Arthur cares about.)

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

So:

I'm not lynching kise; the wagon has all of my scum reads on it and the claim is potentially solid.

Besides sotty, where do your reads currently stand? One of your last post mentioned willing to compromise on Arthur, but you seem to have changed your mind.

~ Zar.

[Plessiezarus]

There is the possibility that there is no town aligned doctor. That's probably worth mentioning.

That's always possible, having co-modded with Faraday, I'm always paranoid about him being subversive and attempting to anticipate claims when building setups. As an example: in the Westerosi Wheel of Time game he modded the Finder Role -equivalent to the Cop role in MS- was shadow-aligned.

I'm also really disconcerted about BT's recent train of thought, to me it seems kinda paranoid, actually?

~ Zar.

[Plessiezarus]

Alright, I see I missed a good bit and the Kuribo (my no1 suspect) wagon disappeared. I have said I could go for a Kise lynch today. Already given my reasons why so

vote:Kise

So you have literally nothing to say about his claim and just hop on the wagon? Mmk.

This post comes from somebody who only just hopped on the wagon himself, hasn't said anything about the claim, and hasn't removed his vote.

And yet people continue to insist that SAD isn't scum .

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Oh, and I'd reply to SAD's 1860, but it's so obviously nothing but pointless nit-picking ("oh no, I said 309, not 399! Well, that really hurts my case "), over-aggression and sarcastic misrepresentation of our claims. It actually makes the case for SAD as scum better than we could, to anyone familiar with his meta.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Because me trying to defend myself and get you to try and explain some points totally makes me scum. Cool beans.

I'm sorry you're not as good at being scum as you assumed you were.

Hey, why don't you insult me and strawman my case a bit more? It's bound to work eventually .

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

PEdit: What do you mean by paranoid?

Bascially, to me your reasoning seems pretty terrible as you just progressed from "I don't think Kise is likely to flip scum" to "Kise claimed doctor, let's lynch him because that's what scum does!". It seems to me like you're working under the premise that Kise's claim has to be fake, because scum would fake-claim. Sure, scum

might

fake claim Doctor, but also a town Doctor might claim Doctor?

Then again, to me your suggestion doesn't feel contrived at all.

~Zar.

[Plessiezarus]

Won't be near a computer for almost all of today (that's RL today). Not sure how much time Zar will have, either. Quick summary of my thoughts, then.

Think Kise is more likely to be scum than Kuribo or BT (though none of them are as likely to be scum as SAD). Don't understand how anybody is town-reading SAD, really. (Well, I know that he posts too much and he's a bit of a dick sometimes, and apparently people read both these things as town, but otherwise... )

And since I really won't have much time to post in the next few days, I'm d'angelo, VT.

Out of interest, why did you claim your role as "VT" and not "Goon"? (I mean, yes, they're functionally equivalent, per the opening posts, but still.)

Also why the hell is he an expensive doctor, if the mod's going to make up a role for him, why not just call him a lawyer or an expensive lawyer. Admittedly that sort of reasoning doesn't usually help.

Um. "Expensive doctor" is a role that's been suggested somewhere in MD in the past. A couple of times, actually. (This isn't hard to google?) I think it's more likely that Faraday knows about that suggestion than that he (or Kise) would spontaneously make up a role of the same name.

I'm not a fan of Kise's wavering on how much he knows about the flavour. Don't like the fact he unvoted SAD just for his name-claim, either. But I don't know if I think that's something scum would be more likely to do than town, or if it's just weird and not alignment-indicative. Meh.

It's bound to work eventually

Well, if your push on me has been indicative of anything, it's that continuing to repeat something, like "lynch SAD", "SAD is scum", etc, usually DOESN'T work

Oh, gloating. That's something you

never

do as scum, isn't it?

(But, meh. People are falling over themselves to read you as town, despite your clear connections with flipped scum and despite your meta being available for all to see. So I guess I can't blame you for a little bit of gloating?)

I think Arthur is townier than Empire does.

... why?

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Re: ZONEACE: If you run a member search on him, you'll see he's posted elsewhere while putting up excuses in this thread. ~. Zar

[Plessiezarus]

Unvote
Vote: BT

Like 80%+ sure that this won't hit scum.

^ And yet, you guys don't want to lynch this instead? :S I can completely empathize with that Maya girl from Zero Dark Thirty.

~ Zar.

[Plessiezarus]

Day 2, Votecount 42

Not voting (2) :

ZONEACE, Cerulean

ZONEACE has been in the game for nine days now and has yet to do anything but promise to read the thread at some point in the future (hint: he's probably scum?). His lack of vote isn't any sort of surprise. I wouldn't expect any sort of contribution from such a non-active slot.

But Cerulean -- you sort of have to vote soon? I get that you guys are conflicted, and that you don't agree on how scummy SAD is

and that it's fun to equivocate since you can then claim to be right no matter what happens

, but there's this thing called a deadline we have to work with (or a 'deadlien', if you go by the mod's preferred spelling ).

Realistically, even assuming Nost and BT eventually vote for SAD (BT: why aren't you doing that already? your vote on Kise isn't going anywhere today), I don't see any way SAD gets lynched today without Cerulean being on the wagon. (My feeling is that there are more people on the SAD wagon who are willing to compromise on BT than there are people on the BT wagon who'd switch to SAD, too.) And if you don't join the wagon fairly soon, there's not going to be time to convince anyone else to join (or somebody on the SAD wagon will have already given up and switched to BT).

So, Cerulean, if you're not going to vote for SAD, can you just say so quickly so we can move our vote and I do something more useful with my day? I promise not to sneer at you

much

if you vote BT and SAD eventually flips as scum.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

I prefer my own flip at this point because I'm not confident at all in SAD flipping scum and I don't trust my ability to make this slot not bothersome D3 in the face of the huge bias that exists atm

Really don't understand this attitude. If you're town, you should never prefer your own death to the death of somebody else whose alignment you're at all uncertain of.

Do you really think SAD's activities make him scum?

Yes. I absolutely do think that. (Unlike some others on the wagon, I'm not

compromising

on SAD -- I think he is the best possible lynch today.)

Do you think he has a better chance of flipping scum than people like TML?

This is essentially irrelevant, since TML isn't being lynched today. (But yes, that is what I think.)

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Problem is I'm willing to bet SAD will flip town.

Why?

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

I might actually get me vote off later and try to force a no lynch. Teheheh.

Yes, forcing a no lynch seems to be the optimal scum play. Well done you!

Nice to know you intend to be around more before deadline, too. Doesn't really sit well with what you said in 1943 though:

And since

I really won't have much time to post in the next few days

, I'm d'angelo, VT.

Since claiming he "won't have much time to post", SAD has made about two dozen posts on-site, the majority of them in this thread. And given 2079, above, it's clear he'll be around to make more posts if he wants to later today.

Does anybody actually believe that SAD claimed early because he thought he wouldn't "have much time to post"?

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

First things first: we were sent a message last night saying that

Zdenek is mod-confirmed town

. Not exactly a shock at this point, but it's nice to know for sure.

Otherwise, well, our scum-reads are kind of awful this game, apparently. Still somewhat bemused by SAD's flip, given some of the weird things he posted. Meh.

Not sure we agree with Zdenek that Arcangel/Zoneace's death points

definitively

to a SK, either. Though certainly killing somebody who hadn't claimed over any of the suspected-but-claimed people (BT, kuribo, Kise) is a bit of a bad move, from town. Hmm. Going to have to think about that some more.

Actually, probably going to have to think about almost all our reads again. Not really confident in our ability to read people in this game right now. I suspect we've also confidently been town-reading at least one scum player. Will have to look at things with fresh eyes.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Zar and I are still rereading. At the moment it looks like we're probably going to be focusing on the group {CDB, DV, TML, kuribo}. Not interested in lynching Kise, Nostrodeus or Jason today.

I'm quite certain scum have daytalk

Yeah. Would be very surprised if scum didn't have daytalk in a Faraday-modded game.

VOTE: Baby Spice

pfft please, Sporty Spice was the hottest.

Vote Jason

I think I'm legally obliged to defend the honour of the cutest of the Spice Girls.

This could have been her breadcrumbing her role.

Oh, yeah, maybe. Her character-name, anyway.

I didn't really pay any attention to this when I went to look for crumbs myself (I was actually more focused on looking for hidden messages / steganography), but now that you point it out, the word "legally" is somewhat suggestive.

Kise

-- is there some reason you'd rather not say who you targeted last night?

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

1) what makes Jason town?

Not sure he is town. But (given TGAH's big push to get him lynched on day 1), I

am

pretty sure he's not Police. Can't see TGAH as Traitor to a faction that includes Jason. And I'm not interested in hunting for a hypothetical third party today.

2) where did kise say he'd rather not claim who he protected?

He didn't. That's ... why I asked?

He's claimed to be a modified doc, and that the modification is "more harmful than helpful". And, clearly, he hasn't revealed his target today. Doesn't take a genius to guess those two facts might be connected.

I don't think we learn anything from his alignment by forcing him to claim who he protected, and potentially it might be harmful to do so. So I'd rather he answer my question before we badger him into revealing information that maybe he shouldn't.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

and yet when I made that exact same argument about SAD positing that there'd be a traitor (and even named the character), you guys still lynched him.

Your argument for SAD being town was terrible though. The fact he did flip town doesn't make it any better.

Anybody remotely familiar with the source material would have guessed, before the game began, that Bubbles would be a character used (he's one of

the

major characters in the series) and that his most likely role was Traitor to the Police (Bubbles spends almost all of the first season working as a CI for the Major Crimes Unit). The fact SAD suggested there could be a traitor with the character-name Bubbles isn't the sort of thing anybody would have gone back to later as a sign of inside knowledge. It really isn't. The post you used to town-read SAD wasn't indicative of alignment at all.

But, look. You gave a bad reason for town-reading somebody and they turned out to be town. Well done? Have a biscuit. Now stop going on about it.

(If you wanted people to take your reads seriously, maybe you shouldn't have made such a fuss about being terrible at scum-hunting and losing most of your town games? Just a suggestion .)

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Went back to look for some scum!absta meta. In particular, I wanted to know how absta interacted with his partners on day 1 as scum. So I only looked for games in which absta was scum and an original player (not games he replaced into).

(This post might tend towards being a wall, so I'll split it into two. Call this part 1.)

I found a few games. Not sure if this is a complete list (although I think so?). It isn't a huge sample, either, I guess.

Absta was scum in Micro 114.

Spoiler: Micro 114

In Micro 114, absta replied to his partner's post to ask a (soft) question. This was actually one of only a handful of posts he directly quoted and questioned like this all game. Absta later suggested his partner "could easily be scum" but didn't push this or vote for him.

Absta was scum in Newbie 1290.

Spoiler: Newbie 1290

In Newbie 1290, absta replied directly to about two-thirds of the players in the game. This included his partner (both before and after his partner was replaced). He told his partner he was "looking scummy", but didn't repeat his suspicions. He gave no read on his partner's replacement, and the replies he directed to the replacement were either reactions to questions (like his partner asking him for reads) or soft, alignment-irrelevant questions of his own.

Absta was scum in Open 432.

Spoiler: Open 432

In Open 432 absta had two partners. One of them was lynched on day 1. Absta did join this wagon, eventually, but was clearly very reluctant to do so (he twice jumped off to try to find a new counter-wagon, then had to limp back on). He only voted for his partner at all when it became clear she was the preferred lynch. He had earlier agreed she looked a bit suspicious, but then done his best to ignore her (though he did find time to direct a few questions to her posts).

His other partner was extremely inactive and ultimately replaced. Nonetheless, absta found a post of his to quote and ask a soft queston about. Absta never gave a read on him.

There seem to be a few constants here.

1) Absta always tries to "interact" with his partners on thread (by quoting something they say and asking a question). He does this even when he's not doing the same to most other players, or when the partner in question is very inactive.

2) Absta never gives a town-read on his partners. He might give no read on them, or he might (weakly) accuse them.

3) However, absta does not bus his partners early. He doesn't follow up on any suspicions he might claim to have. He doesn't push them for a sustained period and he doesn't want to vote for them if he can help it.

Will look at what this means for this game in part 2.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

(Part 2)

Unlike SAD, who apparently thought absta was deliberately being inactive, it seems pretty clear to me that absta was genuinely overwhelmed by the size of the game (don't think he would have been as inactive on day 1 as he was on purpose). Given that, I doubt he'd have made any conscious effort to change his meta.

So I'm willing to guess the three constants I identified in part 1 will still apply. What does that do to the suspect list?

That is, how did absta interact with {Cerulean, Benmage, JasonT1981, camn, The Mini-Librarian, Deasvail, BT, kuribo, Nostredeus, ChannelDeliBird, Kise}?

Spoiler: 1

1) Absta always tries to "interact" with his partners on thread (by quoting something they say and asking a question). He does this even when he's not doing the same to most other players, or when the partner in question is very inactive.

Absta directed questions or comments at most of these players. The only two he completely ignored were CDB and Kise. Willing to drop both of them as candidates for Police for now.

That leaves {Cerulean, Benmage, JasonT1981, camn, The Mini-Librarian, Deasvail, BT, kuribo, Nostredeus}.

Spoiler: 2

2) Absta never gives a town-read on his partners. He might give no read on them, or he might (weakly) accuse them.

Absta gave town-reads on Jason, on petapan and on DV. So remove all three from the short-list of Police, too.

That leaves {Cerulean, Benmage, camn, The Mini-Librarian, BT, Nostredeus}

Spoiler: 3

3) However, absta does not bus his partners early. He doesn't follow up on any suspicions he might claim to have. He doesn't push them for a sustained period and he doesn't want to vote for them if he can help it.

Absta only cast three votes all day. One was a RVS vote, but this was on petapan anyway so not relevant to this analysis (since he's already been crossed off the short-list). The other votes were on SafetyDance and camn. So remove camn from the list as well.

That leaves just five names: {Cerulean, Benmage, The Mini-Librarian, BT, Nostredeus}.

Reasonably confident, based on absta's past scum-games, that the remaining Police can be found in this group.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

It wasn't JUST the setup thing, it was also the early role-playing, the constant posting, the fact that he was obviously and genuinely scumhunting, and finally just my good old-fashioned gut feeling that his unfettered style screamed out "Hey, I have the freedom that only comes with a town role PM!"

Did you even bother to read any of his scum games?

"Constant posting", in particular, is in no way at all a town-tell for Arthur. He was the top poster (by a distance, I think) in both his last scum games (one here, one off-site). Role-playing (which he gave up under pressure when pushed, anyway) isn't a town-tell for Arthur either -- he comes from a site where early-game role-playing is much more widespread than it is on mafiascum. I firmly believe he would have roleplayed whatever his alignment. And he wasn't "obviously scumhunting" at all. He didn't have the confidence in his reads I'd have expected from Arthur as town, lots of his claimed town-reads came from nowhere and contradicted his earlier posts, and he wasn't aggressively going after his scum-reads in the way I'd have expected either.

But whatever. This is a complete waste of time. It's bad enough Arthur is going to be smug about how I was wrong once I get to the dead thread. I don't want to deal with that in-game, thanks.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Ugh. Sort of wish you hadn't claimed that, Kise. (Or Shaft, or whatever you want to be called now.)

I can only target each player once.

In case anybody's wondering, the fact I googled the claimed role name myself is a large part of why I believed Kise's claim. It's also why I wanted to avoid him being pushed to reveal who he'd targeted today. Note that Faraday clearly read the thread this role was proposed in (he posted in it). It seemed much more likely that Faraday had remembered this role, and used it in this game, than that Kise had just happened to claim an obscure modified role that had been proposed before in a thread which Faraday had posted in.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

I can only target each player once. But hey that

may also mean a small mafia too

(3+traitor)

You know, there is something in TGAH's ISO that has been bugging me for a while. Pless thinks I'm slightly paranoid for it, but the fact that you bring it up makes me want to talk about it:

If we look at TGAH's post 489, there is a comment regarding similar setup speculation that I believed could have been a clue to the Police TGAH was a traitor to. (assuming the scenario of a small scum team were true and TGAH had insider information):

I don’t know.

It could be a small scum team

, Jason could be a scum PR, or a few other reasons that I can’t think of right now. That doesn’t negate the point that they –are- defending Jason. Nor are they touching the main issue of why Jason is scum. Instead they are labeling Jason as town due to his gambit and tunneling on Vifam.

Sotty, would you respond to 304 and give your thoughts on that and how it affects your read on Jason? Would you also address Jason’s scumread on Dayne?

I’m going to catch up with everything, hopefully, before I head out to work today. If there is anything that people would specifically like me to address please let me know.

I don't really have a clue of how a small scum-team could work in a 19 player game. I asked Pless if the flavor would allow for multiple people within the Barksdale Organization working with the Police, and Pless said that Bubbles isn't the only person that makes sense as CI, so I guess that could work?.

Basically, we're both a bit skeptical of our original theory of a vig + a single, large scum team. Pless agrees with Zdenek that the ArcAngel kill was not quite right for a town-motivated vig. And we both have town-reads on the majority of the people in the five person short list for potential members of the Police after looking into absta.

~ Zar.

[Plessiezarus]

So, working under the assumption that the remaining Police are in {Cerulean, Benmage, The Mini-Librarian, BT, Nostredeus}.

Don't think TGAH would have attacked Nostrodeus early on day 1 if Nostrodeus were a member of the Police. Cross him off the short-list.

Have had strong town-reads on Cerulean and Benmage for most of the game. Not paranoid enough to starting doubting either of them, yet. (Cerulean has been a bit quiet lately, I suppose, but I know Tammy at least has out-of-game reasons for being busy.) Also think TGAH's posts might point away from Benmage being Police anyway.

Cross both of them off the short-list, too.

That leaves a list of two people: {The Mini-Librarian, BT}. Would be happy if either were the lynch today, though our preference is for TML.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Why TML over BT?

TML's interactions with absta aren't great, as other people have pointed out. He briefly voted for absta, but quickly found an alternate wagon he preferred, which could easily be distancing. And the fact he forgot all about his absta suspicions when the day came to a close and people were looking for alternatives to Zdenek and ActionDan, in particular, seems quite odd.

TML being Police would also help to explain the Shadoweh death, arguably. She definitely suspected him on day 1, and only moved off him to vote for absta. Killing somebody fairly inactive just because they suspected one of the scum seems a bit weak. But somebody who was suspicious of

two

of the scum-team is a much more appealing NK target.

I also don't like the way TML gave up on his petapan=scum meta case. He seems pretty confident of it in 439 and in later posts (like 667). True, at the end of day 1 he was "willing to let Dan live a night", but he seemed set to come back to this again the next day. And in fact he still seemed suspicious of Dan at the start of Day 2, in 1035.

The fact that, rather than pursuing this read, he instead drops all his suspicions, and actually quickly lists petapan's slot as a town-read, seems to have far more to do with wanting to avoid a fight with kuribo than it does with any genuine change of heart. If you believe petapan's meta makes him scum, then kuribo must also be scum. Or, failing that, kuribo must have done something you find very townish. But TML doesn't mention any such thing. He just stops suspecting the slot, without saying why, the instant kuribo replaces in. (I don't think he gets around to explaing

why

he has a town-read on kuribo until 1722, and even then only because Benmage directly challenges him on it.)

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

VOTE: TML, obviously.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

The two part section isn't bad Plessie. There could definetly be a scum in here. The final two, I doubt. Camn, I'm sorry but their interaction could not have been fabricated. Camn n abstas are not scum together. You direct quote an abstas game that has that intensity and I'll change my opinion.

This reads like it's meant to be an objection to my post . But I agree completely that camn is unlikely to be partnered with absta. Absta's push on her is exactly why I took her off the shortlist.

So to claim 2 scum in TML/BT?nost... I doubt it.

Yeah, I'm not really that pleased that the short-list is so short. It's part of the reason I've been speculating with Zar about more oddball setups.

But even if absta has gone against his meta somewhere, and we've wrongly ruled out

somebody

as Police, I think it very likely that there is at least one Police on the list.

No. Bubbles is going to be the only one working with the cops for S1.

Really? I wouldn't be surprised to see, for instance, Wallace or Shardene as Traitors, myself. They both start the season working for the Barksdale organization. They both end up agreeing to work with the Police and reveal important information about the organization (although, yes, Wallace has second thoughts).

Could be a second scum team made up of Omar's crew, too.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Plessie, how hard does scum-Absta tend to push mislynches?

Hmm. Are you thinking that absta's push on camn on day 1 was

too

over the top? Discussed that with Zar a bit earlier. Short answer is that I think absta railing against camn on day 1 the way he did is pretty consistent with his meta, if she's town.

It's true that, looking back at absta's past scum games, he tends to usually be a bit feeble in his suspicions and to not stick with one suspect for long. But he has pushed hard and consistently against townies a couple of times:

In Newbie 1290 he pushed a mislynch on Wisdom fairly enthusiastically on day 1. He also pushed strongly (and successfully) for a Starbuck mislynch in day 2 of Open 432. The latter is particularly similar in tone to his push against camn in this game.

So, quite confident that absta's push on camn was scum on town (or Police on not-Police, at least), given his past form.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Where I'm at now is it's really looking like TML and BT will be my major scumreads. Proper reasoning will have to come a bit later though.

I'm glad it took you four days to produce this single line of wisdom:

Kind of waiting for a TML replacement I guess, but I'm afraid I still can't get thoughts up. Sorry

I don't really see why TML not being around affects the totality of your brain process, but thanks for sharing.

~ Zar.

[Plessiezarus]

Don't see any need to rush the day here at all. Talk and discussion and questioning is all good for the town. Everyone going quiet or saying "oh, yeah, great case on TML, Pless!" is less useful. (More flattering, I guess, but not useful.) I'm not sufficiently confident that TML is Police that I'd want to throw away all chance of pushing alternate wagons today. And even if he is Police, having more interactions to go back and look at after he flips can only be good.

I mean, literally, we caught him and then he stopped posting.

Meh. You think he site-flaked (he's in at least two games as a player and modding one game as well) just because he'd started to get a few votes at the start of the day? Really?

(And while obviously I think he's the best bet for remaining Police right now, "caught" seems something of an overstatement. He's hardly more "caught" than you were at the start of day 2 .)

Really a replacement this late in the game with a player at L-2?

Middle of day 3 isn't that late in the game, really? (I'm pretty sure the last Faraday-modded game Zar and I played in had a replacement near the end of day 4, although happily we were already dead by then.)

every game I've been in with TML, he's been easy mislynch fodder. The fact that he doesn't seem concerned about what he should feel is yet another mislynch... I don't like it.

Can you link to (or at least name) some of these games? Interested in seeing how town!TML tends to react to becoming a suspect.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

OK.. there were too many votecounts for me to include them all.. so I picked every 5.
Here is raw data [...]

Rather than picking every 5, why not just include the end of day vote counts? Those are the only ones you actually analyse later. You didn't need to make this post to do that. For that matter, you didn't need to "analyse" the final wagons to tell us you suspected CDB, either ...

Zar and I both think that VCA has its place, but I don't think we've had the right sort of flips yet (traitors aren't useful, and absta was never a serious wagon on day 1). Just seems premature now, and any attempts to force conclusions from the information we have seem contrived.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Tammy

- a quick question for you specifically.

I know Empire had a meta-based town-read on TML on day 2. Did you read the meta stuff and agree with Empire's reasoning? Or was it something you were just willing to trust Empire's judgement on? (Apologies if you actually addressed this earlier, but the iso function is playing up for me and I can't easily find all your posts.)

I ask because this post (emphasis added):

Empire is going to take another look through tml's meta and work on that

and we'll be hashing out the rest of our list this week.

... gave me the impression that Tammy was (still?) delegating the TML meta stuff to Empire. But then most recently Empire said (emphasis added, again):

Tammy and I went over TML's meta again and she thinks it doesn't tell her anything one way or the other

Now it seems that Empire is leaving the job of coming to a conclusion about TML's meta to Tammy? (Otherwise, why stress that "[Tammy] thinks it doesn't tell anything" and not tell us what Empire thinks?).

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

kurbio

-- thanks for the link, but ... er.

You said TML had been "easy mislynch fodder" in every game you both played in (and that if he was town he should be stressing out over "yet another mislynch"). I asked you to link me to one of these games so I could see "how TML reacts to becoming a suspect".

In the game you link, TML is town, but he isn't lynched. (In fact, looking at the vote counts, nobody ever casts a vote for him.) This was not the sort of game I had in mind .

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

kuribo

-- were you really voting for TML for no other reason than your belief he was regularly mislynched and would be reacting differently now if town? And was this belief so nebulous that you're now completely dropping it? Did you not think to check your own link before providing it as an example?

Am I going to get any answer to this that doesn't boil down to "I don't really like mafia"?

DV

-- if BT is your top scum-read, why are you not voting him? Why do you have to know how interested people would be in a BT lynch first?

Kise

-- um. What are you talking about?

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

This might be a bit of a nitpick, but:

@Equinox:

Out first post was on page 5; and the last ten pages of this game only have a single post in which Plessiez makes an off-site comment about Arthur. How come, if you've only read the pages you have claimed, you know Arthur and Tammy might influence your opinion on me?

~Zar.

[Plessiezarus]

Out first post was on page 5; and the last ten pages of this game only have a single post in which Plessiez makes an off-site comment about Arthur. How come, if you've only read the pages you have claimed, you know Arthur and Tammy might influence your opinion on me?

If I remember correctly, they have scum meta on you, so I'm hoping they might have commentary on how you've sounded, behaved, etc.

So from

where

exactly do you remember this?

See, neither of them mentioned anything about me in any of the pages you claimed to have read.

~Zar.

[Plessiezarus]

Have you ever played a game in Westeros?

~ Zar.

[Plessiezarus]

Oh, okay, that makes more sense. I just assumed you never played at Westeros because nobody with your name is a member of the discussion board.

~Zar.

[Plessiezarus]

DV do you remember why you voted CDB way back in the game?

I think it was for not liking his semi-serious vote on

UberNinja

. I don't think much of it anymore though.

Er. You mean his semi-serious vote on

absta

right?

I was perfectly fine to hop onto the wagon and see if he made with any of the good stuff. (and no, I don't believe in stating that my vote is for pressure because when you do that, you remove the pressure)

BT, on the other hand, has been fucking ghost mode since the TML wagon started. I don't think the two parts of this sentence are unrelated.

Hmm. OK.

I do think that BT is more likely to be partner to absta than CDB is, given absta's interactions with both. If you're not going to vote for Equinox, then BT is as good a vote as any.

I mean, I don't know why I'm asking you, you're town. But I feel like I can't let that lie.

Is your main reason for thinking Kuribo is town still the fact that ActionDan angrily replaced out at the start of day 2? I'm really not convinced that's at all alignment-indicative.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

So yeah, basically take the SAD wagon

Why are you only looking for scum on the SAD wagon? What makes you think that there has to be scum there?

Combine that with TML interactions /

the unease I get when a townie gets 0 heat all game

/ the legit solid cases on TML today and PoE says it's time to scrap Wall-E.

Please expand on the bolded.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

I do think that BT is more likely to be partner to absta than CDB is, given absta's interactions with both.

What CDB interactions are you talking about?

I'm referring to my analysis of absta's scum meta in 2166 and 2168. Specifically, in all of absta's past scum games he makes a point of directing questions to or otherwise commenting on his partners' posts. He seems to be pretty scrupulous about dong this. In this game he ignored CDB, which I don't think he'd have done if they were partners.

Is your main reason for thinking Kuribo is town still the fact that ActionDan angrily replaced out at the start of day 2? I'm really not convinced that's at all alignment-indicative.

Guh? Didn't you agree with me that kuribo's gotcha was town way back then?

Zar and I each have a weak town-read on kuribo at the moment. Not at all as confident in reading him as town as you seem to be. (I forgot you also commented on the "haha, ActionDan claimed on day 2!!" 'gotcha' though )

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Why are you only looking for scum on the SAD wagon? What makes you think that there has to be scum there?

I find the wagon which stays stable the longest to be more likely scum motivated.

In what sense did the SAD wagon "stay stable the longest"?

The above makes me suspicious of heavily stable wagons with

members who don't make an effort to consider other cases and also compromise voters

, SAD's wagon has both.

Name them?

If a player garners no suspicion from other players in the game it worries me, the longer it goes on the more I wonder why

Are you actually saying that not being suspected much is inherently suspicious? Because that's ... um, not very logical.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

General question: How town were Shadoweh and sottyrulez? Like, were they generally considered town by most everyone in the game?

Shadoweh picked up quite a few votes early on Day 1, but I think she was generally seen as town by the end of the day, yes. She had very few posts in the second half of the day, really - I think people weren't paying her much attention either way.

Sottyrulez was seen as town by most people, but Nost, BT and Jason all claimed scum-reads on them of various strengths during Day 2.

Somewhere in this thread is an argument and/or generally held belief that camn cannot be absta101's partner, so cross her out for the time being.

"Cannot be" seems a bit strong, but "is unlikely to be", sure. (Absta had a big push on camn at the end of day 1, and if you check his previous scum games it seems unlikely he would have treated a partner like this.)

If sottyrulez says jasonT1981 is town, he's town

Er. But Sotty stopped saying Jason was town on Day 2 . Not sure they went as far as calling Jason scum (though they did vote for them in 1084) but they repeatedly said their day 1 town-read was wavering (1169, 1518), they accused him of coasting (1573) and they pressed him to explain unacknowleged changes in his reads (1696). Definitely didn't have him as a town-read anymore.

I also don't see the "gambit" as any sort of town-tell (it wasn't ruined by Vifam, but by Jason's own earlier posts).

Difficult to see Jason as Police though, given TGAH's big push on him. (That's assuming that TGAH knew who the Police were but that none of the Police knew that TGAH was a Traitor until he flipped.)

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Oh, also:

Just got back, cba answering stuff right now, will do so sometime tomorrow.

When you get around to replying to things, please tell us your current read on Jason.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

(That's assuming that TGAH knew who the Police were but that none of the Police knew that TGAH was a Traitor until he flipped.)

Starting to think this might be too big of an assumption. It's entirely possible that TGAH knew some of their partners but not others and I think I remember Tammy telling me there was a flavor justification for this

Might be a bad assumption, yeah.

Zar is keen to remind me that Faraday likes to tie flavour into his game setups (Aegon's forces being split in ADWD, for instance). Given that, I think it's plausible both that there's more than one traitor and that each traitor only knows some of the police. (Each of the police has different CI working for them?)

And I guess you guys in the QT have probably already considered this, but flavour also suggest that the Police might have the ability to eavesdrop on your neighborhood conversations. In the show, Avon and Stringer work out of a backroom in Orlando's, and the Major Crimes Unit are able to arrest Avon at the end of Season 1 after secretly installing a camera in this room. And it's a show based around (and named after) a wire tap, so ... seems fairly plausible to me.

Could also explain why TML wanted to know the name of ActionDan's neighborhood in 909 (if the Police know they can read a QT called 'Orlando's' but don't know anything else about this QT, for instance).

As for "modified role cop", my own guess is that it means TGAH's results would have been passed directly on to the Police somehow (just as, in the show, Bubbles points out the important members of the Barksdale organisation to the Police by arranging to have them photographed wearing that red hat). But I don't think it's too important to know exactly what "modified role cop" meant given TGAH's lynch.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Equinox

: out of curiosity: how caught up are you at this point? Basically, how far along have you read?

~ Zar.

[Plessiezarus]

Equinox

: out of curiosity: how caught up are you at this point? Basically, how far along have you read?

Pages 1-3, pages 70-74, pages 80-94. Shadoweh's iso, sottyrulez's iso, latter half of Nostredeus's iso.

There's something I don't understand. If you've read all of D3 (80-94), Why are you talking about taking a look at Zdenek then?

~ Zar.

[Plessiezarus]

And Equinox- I think the case against you is crap, and the BT case is moderate.

Other than the town-read on TML which you refuse to explain, why do you think the case is crap? What specifically do you think is wrong with it?

I didn't think about an eavesdropped neighborhood.

Scum have access to Kuribo's neighborhood?

This is something I suggested in 2342. Fits with flavour, but otherwise there's no particular evidence for it and it's not something we should spend much time discussing further right now. Wait to see how people flip first. More important thing to bear in mind if there are multiple traitors or if traitors don't know all Police is that we might have been too hasty to clear the people TGAH attacked.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Could you expand on your Nostredeus-town read, please?

As I discussed at the time, his reaction to McStab's early pursuit of him was town, as well as his interaction with Sotty on Day 2. His brushes with TML don't strike me as scum butting heads for show. There's really nothing at all that suggests to me that Nostredeus is being false.

Disagree with this completely, for the record. Other than the fact TGAH attacked Nost (which I'd been assuming meant Nost was probably not Police), I think Nost looks pretty awful. Not interested in moving our vote away from Equinox though.

The reason I'm posting so many examples of camn's super scumtells being bullshit is because she's still pushing me as scum despite me repeatedly rebutting them for the crap they are.

I can understand being annoyed at being suspected for what seem like silly reasons, but ... you knew your repeated goading of camn was going to provoke exactly this response, right?

There's something I don't understand. If you've read all of D3 (80-94), Why are you talking about taking a look at Zdenek then?

NK analysis or at least an attempt at one. Generally, I look at the people who are dead and then the people who should be dead but aren't. Zdenek claimed a confirmable role on Day 1.

What Zar was driving at is: given how much of the thread you claim to have read, you should know that Zdenek didn't just

claim

a confirmable role, he's had that role confirmed by more than one person. Are you "taking a look" at him because you find his being alive suspicious, or for some other reason?

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

camn

-- You ignored my question:

And Equinox- I think the case against you is crap, and the BT case is moderate.

Other than the town-read on TML which you refuse to explain, why do you think the case is crap? What specifically do you think is wrong with it?

CDB

:

I can understand being annoyed at being suspected for what seem like silly reasons, but ... you knew your repeated goading of camn was going to provoke exactly this response, right?

I didn't post them for her benefit.

Obviously not. Whose benefit did you post them for? Do you think it helps the town to have you and camn sniping at each other like this?

(Or, you know, what Cerulean said, I guess.)

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Other than the fact TGAH attacked Nost (which I'd been assuming meant Nost was probably not Police), I think Nost looks pretty awful.

Could you elaborate on this? CDB's "I don't see anything fake" is exactly the stance I took regarding Nost on D2 and it hasn't changed.

Nost seems far more concerned with justifying his behaviour and his votes than he is with actually hunting for scum. He shows a serious lack of interest in changing his mind about his reads (he's been pushing the same "TML is suspicious because everyone is ignoring him!" line since Day 1, for instance). His posts are full of superficial "analysis" that's clearly only being used to justify conclusions he's already come to (like claiming the SAD wagon is bad because it's full of people "who don't make an effort to consider other cases", and yet town-reading everyone on the wagon except TML, even though TML obviously isn't one of those people). He seems happy to ignore or dismiss things when they don't let him reach a conclusion he likes (on day 2, he said he was "happy to say I think at least one of [Jason and sotty] are scum", but after sotty flipped town he hasn't looked at Jason again at all).

Combine that with the (totally unnecessary) white-knighting of Jason during day 2, and the fact that despite suggesting "scum is chilling out and watching town eat itself today" he was happy to sit on sotty (before "compromising" on SAD), instead of actually making an effort to get somebody he really thought was scum lynched ... I really don't see what people like in his posts, at all.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

The wagons yesterday were frankly very revealing

This is actually a prime example of the superficial analysis I was complaining about above. Based on this post I can tell you

who

Nost suspects, but I can't tell you

why

. Nost doesn't seem to have talked about camn much before, but I don't know what it is that makes him suspect her now. Both camn and TML were on several wagons yesterday -- is that suspicious? If scum do "one of two things", and one of those things is to tunnel on a single player while ignoring other cases, why doesn't your "analysis" lead you to suspect somebody like DV?

The Kuribo wagon was clearly just a reaction to the play style, there's nothing to see there.

Er. Really? You don't think it had anything to do with the fact that lots of people suspected kuribo's slot even before he replaced in? Are petapan's behaviour on day 1 and ActionDan's claim then angry replace out not relevant of all a sudden? Why?

ChannelDeliBird (5) - Plessiezarus, Zdenek, The Mini-Librarian, kuribo, camn

If there was scum on it it's clearly TML or camn.

Kise (6) - The Mini-Librarian, Cerulean, Ser Arthur Dayne, sottyrulez, Benmage, camn

Again, if there was scum on it it's probably TML or camn.

BT (7) - Channeldelibird, Kise, sottyrulez, kuribom Benmage, camn, Ser Arthur Dayne

So, again if there is scum on this wagon it's probably camn.

There's no sign of any actual analysis here. You've literally just quoted who was on the wagon and then concluded "so probably the people I have scum-reads on are scum here". Can you actually expand on any of this? Is there some logic I'm not seeing? What about any of these wagons is especially "revealing"?

Ser Arthur Dayne (9) - Deasvail, Plessiezarus, Zdenek, JasonT1981, The-Mini Librarian, Nostredeus, ChannelDeliBird, sottyrulez, camn

So, yeah, errrr, TML/camn for scum on this one too, more so TML. You might be noticing a trend in the way TML played yesterday (camn too but there's other stuff regarding TML that makes it a more productive slot to lynch).

Some reasoning might be nice? The only trend I'm noticing is that you keep quoting wagons and then saying "so TML and camn are probably scum", neatly skipping over all the actual analysis and reasoning one might reasonably expect to occur in the middle.

With regards to the stability thing 'for the longest' was a bad phrase to use tbh, what I was meaning is the core members stayed on regardless of alternative options for an extended period of time and even in situations where they were offered an out, 'so I'm gunna compromise swap to SAD' would have gone down fine, also the same logic -in reverse- applies to people who did swap from BT to SAD.

Which "core members" stayed on the SAD wagon for "an extended period of time"? What is your read on them?

(I have literally no idea what you're trying to say with the second half of this quote. Can you try rewriting everything from "even in situations where they were offered ..."? What does "the same logic in reverse" even mean?)

I'm saying in this case the way TML vote hopped multiple times is indicative of opportunistic motivations.

Why TML explicitly? Show some thought process beyond "I think TML is scum and so when I look at how he voted I think it's scummy".

(To put it another way, why is TML's hopping from CDB to Kise to SAD more suspicious than, say, Jason hopping from Kuribo to Kise to SAD?)

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

The only two he completely ignored were CDB and Kise. Willing to drop both of them as candidates for Police for now.

I disagree with this decision. You've just finished saying that you think Absta was genuinely having a hard time with the game, and both of these were slots that were somewhat inactive at times (Baby Spice more so), so it's quite possible that he simply didn't interact with them because they weren't posting.

Oh, yeah, it's possible that absta ignored one of his partners this game. I'm definitely not trying to say "scum!absta always acts in a certain way towards his partners and therefore the following people are cleared forever". But I do think it's worth focusing, at least for now, on people who make sense as partners to absta given the assumption he hadn't varied his meta.

I also don't think absta would have ignored any partners simply because they were inactive, even though I do think he was feeling somewhat overwhelmed. In one of the past scum games of his I linked to, he quotes and replies to a partner who only managed a handful of posts before replacing out on day 1. And I think people who are overwhelmed by the size or pace of the game are

more

likely to revert to their usual meta than otherwise.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Um. Can people stop trying to do maths in the thread, please?

Or at least learn why parentheses are important and what BIDMAS actually means?

Normally I expect to be paid to read stuff like that.

I'm still more confident in the TML/Equinox wagon than anything else and I still think that's the best lynch. But the nature of Tammy's push on BT makes me feel somewhat less paranoid about the Cerulean slot, so I suppose that's something. (Is the neighborhood QT full of posts like 2474 and 2482?)

I honestly don't think Equinox is scum based off now likely ancient meta but I'll go over those when I'm done with this exam.

Hmm. Zar's looked at some Equinox meta and thinks it supports that slot being scum . So we'd be interested to see this. (Preferably before the day ends, if you're going to be back from V/LA by then?)

Deadline isn't far away and I'm gonna be busy for the next few days but I do want to reanalyze Nost and compare with TML/Equinox now. They're probably not scum together, at any rate.

Then you should string him up either before or after me? Hint hint?

Oh, I know this one! (It's "after", right? I'm not very good at picking up subtle hints...)

I'm not seeing why Equinox and Nost can't be scum together . Nost claiming to be suspicious of TML from day 1 onwards but not doing anything to really push a wagon is not a great point against it, nor is Equinox voting Nost for a few hours (at a time he was in no danger of being lynched) and then jumping to a different wagon.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

This is probably going to be my last reply to Nostredeus before the deadline, since back and forth walls are a pain for everyone and I'd rather focus on getting Equinox lynched today.

Spoiler: What does Nost think about Jason?

So, let me get this straight. I'm showing a serious lack of willingness to change my reads but at the same time if I change my read on the Jason-Scotty situation I've some how ignored my previous game-state? You can't have it both ways mate, pick one side of that fence and I'll defend against it.

You're showing a lack of willingness to change your

reads

, yes. Nobody could ever accuse you of not being willing to change the arguments you give for those reads though.

I mean, look, it's pretty simple. On day 2, you claim a town-read on Jason. At the same time, you claim a scum-read on sotty. In 1250, while commenting on sotty's reversal on Jason, you say "I'm happy to say I think at least one of them are scum". It's not clear why you come to this conclusion, but -- given that you apparently did -- why did you not spend any time on day 3 re-assessing your town read on Jason?

(If the only reason you had to think "at least one of them" was scum was your scum-read on sotty, then why the non-sequitur?)

Spoiler: PoE and the SAD wagon

Regarding the SAD wagon, I had town reads on the other members PoE suggests TML scum, that's really not a controversial way of narrowing down the lynch options for today.

That's .. actually not how PoE works, though. PoE starting with the whole player list works because, once you've identified most of the town, scum must be left in the remaining group. But you're focusing on the SAD wagon, a group of players that might not contain

any

scum. In fact, it's a group of players that you mostly have town-reads on to start with!

I mean, look, let's just examine the logic at work here. You start off by picking out the SAD wagon as worthy of special focus. When pushed, you explain (in 2314) that this is because you think the wagon is "likely scum motivated" and that you are suspicious of "wagons with members who don't make an effort to consider other cases and also compromise voters, SAD's wagon has both". So you are focusing on the SAD wagon because it contains (multiple!) members who have behaved in a way you find suspicious.

And yet, when you actually look at the SAD wagon (which you'd already done, in 2198) you note that the wagon consists of dead townies, mod-confirmed town Zdenek, yourself, and multiple people you claim a town-read on. [Actually, the wagon also had camn on, but you don't mention her here at all. Er. Actually, why not?] Now "PoE" leads you to accuse TML, but in the process you have

completely undermined

your given reason for focusing on the SAD wagon. On the one hand, you are focusing on the SAD wagon because it has people (multiple people!) on it who you think have done something suspicious. On the other hand, everyone on this wagon apart from TML [and camn, who you're ignoring for whatever reason in this post] is somebody you had a town-read on or knew was town because they'd flipped.

Either

you can think it's worth focusing on the SAD wagon because there are several suspicious people on it ("members who don't make an effort to consider other cases" and "compromise voters") and it is possibly "scum motivated".

Or

you can have pre-existing town-reads on everybody on the wagon but TML. But I don't see how you can do both. (You might start off by thinking more than one person on the wagon is suspicious and then after rereading decide they're town, but that's clearly not what happened.) This just feels like you're hunting for reasons to justify your already-decided on read of TML. I can't see any logically consistent reason to focus on the SAD wagon at the expense of everything else.

Spoiler: Vote hopping

The reason I suspect Camn and TML is BECAUSE of their presence on every significant wagon, usually late in the day with the exception of TML on Kise but the reason I don't like that is more down to the claim. It smacks of wagon hopping, it smacks of opportunism; if you can show me another player who was on every significant wagon then I'm happy to re-evaluate, you and I know that wont be possible however.

Well, first of all this isn't why you claimed to suspect TML originally at all. And second, as I've already pointed out, Jason was on three significant wagons: kuribo, Kise and SAD. That's as many serious wagons as TML was on. (Yes, yes, you've decided kuribo wasn't a significant wagon and everyone only pretended to suspect his slot because of his playstyle, even the people who were voting for the slot before kuribo replaced in . I don't care about that: kuribo was clearly one of day 2's serious wagons. The fact you claim not to understand why people suspected that slot should make you

more

suspicious of the people on it, if anything.)

Some more of this dubious bullshit to clean up I see; I'm making a very basic and easy to understand claim. If you put plessie and kuribo in the conf town column along with the obv townies then you look at the wagons from yesterday you get to a really simple conclusion: Either all of the wagons were on scum OR TML/Camn were jumping on every opportunity to get a townie lynched. If you don't buy it feel free to say some stuff that engages with that claim, because all I've been hearing today is heap tonnes of dubious shit.

I don't understand what putting me+Zar or kuribo in the "conf town column" has to do with the conclusion you reach, for a start. Or why the only options are "every wagon [except SAD's] was on scum" or "every person TML/camn voted for was town", either.

But also: despite admitting in 2423 that you need to explain why vote hopping is scum motivated, you haven't done so. "But guys, they vote-hopped

more than once

" doesn't cut it.

Spoiler: BT

"Yesterday's wagons happened that way yesterday for a reason" You're god damn right they did, and they saved BT's ass.

Yup, we've already discussed this, so I dunno what your point is.

If you agree that the suspicious thing about yesterday's wagons is that they "saved BT's ass", why were you 'analysing' the wagons and concluding we should lynch TML? (I mean, yes, obviously you'd already decided to vote TML before you 'analysed' anything, but let's pretend that's not the case, shall we?)

Why, if you think that yesterday's wagons happened as they did because somebody was trying to protect BT, did you give a list of suspects you'd consider other than TML -- namely "Deasvail, Plessiezarus, JasonT1981, [The-Mini Librarian], ChannelDeliBird" -- that didn't include BT, in your 2239?

If you think the BT wagon not ending in a lynch is somehow suspicious, why did you repeatedly dismiss both the day 2 wagons in general and the one on BT in particular? Why did you say "there legit isn't a case on BT" when BT was on four votes, why did you insist "I'm not lynching BT" shortly before that?

Or, to put it in more directly: if you thought all the wagons yesterday were bad and that the one on BT was especially so (which is why you switched to SAD instead), how can you agree with Cerulean's claim that "the reason" for the wagons to happen the way they did was to save BT?

Spoiler: Pointless snark

P-Edit: What kind of a response is that. :/

I can't help but notice that this post came twenty minutes after the previous one, and almost half an hour after the Equinox post you're presumably responding to. Why were you so reluctant to believe Equinox might have taken 21 minutes to write 2448, again?

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

What about her play seems to fit her scum meta more?

Equinox's tone and approach to the game, mostly. I also looked at Micro 53 along with Open 453 as opposed to Mini 1326, where she replaced into a scum slot. I noticed how she seemed to be somewhat off focus in that game with her thoughts and to be bidding herself some time (which is the impression I got from her entry here). So, I decided to take a look at other games of hers to try to discern if it was only a replacement tell. Despite the comparisons I used are older games, I thought her behavior in both Mini 1030 Mini 1030 (she was Wisteria there) and Mini 1073 was a lot more like her play in 1326 than her most recent town games I linked.

I think it'd be great if Empire could also take a look into these games and or point at which other games he used in his meta research.

~ Zar.

[Plessiezarus]

Only have time to make a very quick post today (I'll be in the hospital until late this evening. Joy.). Both BT and TML/Equinox make sense as absta's partners, given absta's scum meta, so I wouldn't be too upset with either of them being lynched today. I think Nost is a somewhat inferior lynch. He was attacked by TGAH, so we'd have to assume TGAH didn't know all the Police, and I'm slightly worried that Nost's wagon analysis is just like his maths -- that is, it's obviously wrong, but also something Nost actually believes in.

I have a sense that more people than just camn are giving Equinox a pass because she's a replacement and because her posts make her seem calmer and more rational than BT or Nost (even if only camn says as much). But that would be a mistake -- the case against TML (in particular the stuff outlined in 2188 ) hasn't gone away just because TML site-flaked. (And there's also the fact TML asked ActionDan for the name of his QT, if we think that theory has any merit). I don't really think being "oily" or being angry and aggressive when in danger of being lynched are scum tells, and as far as I can tell that's the only reason people have to prefer a BT lynch over an Equinox lynch. Zar thought BT was being oily on day 2, which was part of why our reads on him differed, but I think I managed to persuade him that this was more likely just a case of BT's personality rubbing him the wrong way. Actually, Zar now has more of a town-read on BT than I do and thinks his current reactions are very townish (he insists I mention this so one of us can brag to the other later ).

I also don't believe there's much evidence that the SAD wagon won out over the BT wagon because of a push by scum: the key people who switched were CDB, who we have a weak but strengthening town-read on, and sotty, who's already flipped town. So, yeah, Equinox is the better lynch, I think.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Equinox, can you explain your choice of words in regards to Zdenek in this post?

Equinox, are you saying you find Zdenek potentially scummy? If so can you please link me a game with a scum aligned friendly neighbor, I could do with a source or two to see how scum friendly neighbors play and I can't find an example of it happening.

That's not what I said. I'm looking at Zdenek not because I'm suspicious of him -- actually I think he's town -- but because I'm interested in potential reasons for why he is alive, since I am also looking into potential reasons for why scum killed the people they did.

I'll take a look at the rest in a bit, working on something that's due in a couple of hours.

The way I'm reading this post, it seems to imply that you're still have suspicions of his alignment/claim. Can you explain?

~Zar.

[Plessiezarus]

Back from the hospital.

I had a brain scan but they didn't find anything, ha ha ... Why me laugh?

Apparently I'm still alive, so I don't have an excuse to ignore this thread. Sad, really.

There is an interesting point to note here: The only wagon from yesterday which TML was not on is the BT wagon, if I had a scum read on BT this would simply make me want TML dead more.

[...]

[TML/camn].are the only two people who can be found on every single wagon

Consistency,

like subtraction

, is apparently not your friend . And, since TML wasn't on the kuribo wagon, neither is literacy. (Yes, the kuribo wagon was an actual wagon yesterday. It really was. No amount of pretending otherwise will change this.)

Also, that "I don't have a scum-read on BT, but if I did..." bit is horrible. Since you

don't

have a scum-read on BT, why say this? Why attempt to influence people with something you must think is a wrong argument? You sound more interested in persuading others than you do in being correct .

The way I'm reading this post, it seems to imply that you're still have suspicions of his alignment/claim. Can you explain?

I do not. I am wondering if his reads are what's keeping him alive. There's a post somewhere in my iso that explains how I do NK analyses.

And yet you say you only "think" he's town...

(Your options at this point are "Zdenek is town" or "the scum team is Benmage, Plessiezarus and Zdenek, and they are all

utter morons

who will be found out tomorrow". You should be a lot more confident in Zdenek as town than merely "thinking" he is.)

I'm not jumping on the counterwagon right away because I lean town on BT for reasons I've already covered, and I haven't had a chance to review BT's play more fully or review the cases that have been put forth against BT. I want to do that. I want to make sure I believe BT is scum because if I still think BT is town after reading, I'm not going to vote BT.

You're not going to vote BT unless you're "sure" he's scum, even if that means you risk getting yourself lynched? Ugh. (Also, I think you were supposed to be working...)

Attempting to make this as to-the-point as possible. [...]

Congratulations on failing horribly!

Remind me to read these properly tomorrow when I'm actually capable of rational thought.

And you get awesome points for trying to push his lynch while he's VLA and can't defend himself.

Er. You think BT was trying to get DV lynched

today

? Because 2586 really reads like "here are my reads in general", not "I want to get these people lynched right now!". (Also, there's nothing wrong with suspecting people who can't defend themselves? Being V/LA doesn't make you town.)

Quick question to anybody in the neighbourhood

:

are you a cult? if so, please pretend you're not and recruit me soon

why exactly is BT a better lynch than TML/Equinox today? If you think my case on TML is wrong or lacking somewhere, then

why

? (If you think there are good answers to this hidden in one of your back and forth walls with BT, then "pretend" I only skimmed those and summarise them for me again, please.)

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

@Pless: Yeah so quite obviously my point was "if for some reason you don't have a town read on BT *cough see the wagon on BT* then TML is a decent lynch anyway", it's a pretty relevant point dunno what your beef is frankly.

You think TML is scum, yes/no? You think BT is town, yes/no?

And yet rather than wonder

why

scum!TML wasn't on town!BT's wagon as you "analyse" the day 2 wagons, you're content to say "people who suspect BT should vote for TML!" and not consider the matter any further. You don't wonder if TML not being on BT's wagon might mean TML isn't scum (after all, they weren't actually on every wagon ) or that BT isn't town (why did scum!TML pick SAD's wagon over BT's?).

All you care about is spinning things to get people to vote the way you want them to vote. You're happy trying to persuade people to vote for TML based on what you (claim to) believe are bad assumptions. You're throwing whatever you can at TML without any real interest in whether it's true or false. And you wonder why I have a problem with that?

Anyway we're fine with an equinox lynch I guess, and I'll hammer sometime soon if people are ready to end the day, but I'd like to wait for equinox to do what she said she wanted to do this afternoon and empire to come back and give the okay for a vote move.

Has Equinox claimed already? Don't want anybody to hammer without a claim.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Meh he's not a better lynch probably. The last message empire left was that he wouldn't lose any tears over an equinox lynch. But, he did tell me he'd let me know what he thought about her meta fitting town more than scum when he got back from his exam, but I'm guessing he doesn't feel really confident in that. And part of that is probably there are only so many people we think are in the scum pool unless we're off on a town read somewhere.

In the last post from Empire addressing his Equinox read (#2467), we got the impression he was actually pretty confident on his town read on her. But your later posts seem to indicate you've both lost faith in it. Can you shed some light me on what is it that is making you guys waver back and forth on this meta-read? Did Empire note anything in particular that changed his mind?

~ Zar.

~Link fixed

[Plessiezarus]

In the last post from Empire addressing his Equinox read (#2467), we got the impression he was actually pretty confident on his town read on her

Erm, not sure where you're getting the impression that I was confident in that post, hence why I said it was based off really old meta that I had to go over again.

"I honestly don't think Equinox is scum" sounded pretty confident to me, even with the caveat about needing to check old meta again.

(Have you linked to this old meta yet?)

Seeing how I haven't gotten all EXCITED over claiming, yeah, I don't have anything special. [...]

Avon Barksdale, 1-shot kill proof.

... how is Avon Barksdale not "anything special" in a game where the town is made up of

people who work for Avon Barksdale

? I mean, yes, Faraday likes having high profile characters as fake-claims, but that seems like it would be going a bit far even for him .

Ugh. Actually, UNVOTE: while I wait to talk things over with Zar. Because of my own set-up speculation (non-zero chance of Omar as lyncher, somebody else as vig/SK) I'm a bit wary about leaving a possible Avon at L-1 while we do that

*whimper* even (I can't spell)

Please don't tell me you're having cold feet.

[...]

...why am I even saying all this.

A good question. Do you often try to to talk people into following through with their plans to lynch you?

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Plessiezarus, it's quite reasonable to use main characters as safe claims.

Main characters as safe-claims, sure. Absolutely what I'd expect. It was the actual

leader

of the town faction being a fake-claim that I found odd. But Zar reminds me that both Cersei and Twyin were given out as fake-claims in ASOS, even though the Lannisters were the town faction. So yeah, back to wanting you lynched.

VOTE: Equinox

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Here's the thing: equinox's claim and kise's claim are hard to justify as both town. Scum certainly must have a way of preventing cross kills.

Wait, what?

There could easily be both a doctor and a bulletproof player as town in the same game. Especially if the doctor is modified to be weaker than usual, as Kise claims.

And your second sentence is a complete non-sequitur. Even assuming that there is a third party faction with a kill (which is something we still don't actually know and I'm not sure I believe), scum could have a way to prevent cross-kills even if both Equinox and Kise are town. So a belief that scum should have a way to prevent cross-kills shouldn't lead you to asssume one of Kise/Equinox must be lying.

(It would also still be nice if you or DV could bulletpoint why you think BT is a better lynch than Equinox. "He feels like scum" isn't persuading me.)

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

kuribo: is DeasVail more active in the QT than he has been in actual the game thread?

~ Zar.

[Plessiezarus]

Pless, Cerulean has laid out the case on BT better than I can.

But when I just asked Cerulean to explain why BT was a better lynch than TML they said he probably wasn't . It would be nice if one of you could outline the case for me.

I mean, I can definitely understand not liking BT's attitude at times, or finding him "oily" or accusing him of trying to unfairly undermine or discredit his accusers. But my issue is that I'm just not sure how reliable a scum-tell that is. It seems like that's a way lots of people play regardless of alignment. Does BT's attitude in this game compare unfavourably to games in which he's been mislynched as town? Is it unlike how he reacts to being pressured normally?

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

...so, uh, I'm a numbskull and probably one of the bigger ones on the site. I just realized that I'd been assuming for 24 hours that sottyrulez had been vigged, which they weren't, which means that I'd jumped off Nostredeus due to a false assumption.

Er. What? Where did this come from? You didn't talk about sotty being vigged when you moved off Nostredeus. And why would sotty being vigged make you unvote Nostredeus anyway?

And how could you

forget

that sotty was night-killed by scum, when you previously said:

The thing I'm worried about is why Shadoweh and sottyrulez were arrested specifically

... and then spent several posts talking about looking at people like Zdenek and kuribo to analyse why they weren't killed? If you were "worried" about why sottyrulez was arrested, how could you then

forget that it happened

?

(Also not moving to BT.)

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

if [Equinox] does flip cop [Empire] thinks Nostredeus fits for a partner due to her behavior here being similar to there, possibly bt also as she has a tendency to bus

Could definitely see Nost as a partner to the TML slot, yes. Would like to look at Nost's completed scum games to double-check that, perhaps, but no time today (and if Equinox doesn't flip Cop it would only be a waste of effort). Would suggest TGAH didn't know Nost was Police though .

And if she flips Avon, then kise needs to be looked at more closely as we've been writing him off based on his claim. Her flavor explanation for her role was way better than kises who was like "I'm that white dude you guys were talking about...the lawyer" and who has done very little in the game since.

Not sure having good flavour means much -- looking at the ASOS QT I linked to earlier, Faraday seemed to give out sample flavour along with safe claims. (I think he's offered to provide flavour for fake-claims in other games, too?) And while Kise's initial claim was a textbook example of how

not

to convincingly claim a role, the possible breadcrumb in BabySpice's iso, together with the fact Kise claimed a variant of doctor most people have never heard of but that Faraday certainly has, certainly seem to point to the claim being legitimate.

If she flips cop bulletproof, which I would guess would be Kima based on flavor and she's most definitely here since bubbles is, then probably never mind, but I would expect there to be a scum bp or doc here somewhere.

Kima makes quite a lot of sense as bulletproof scum, yeah. (But, actually, with "kills" being arrests, Avon makes some sense as bulletproof town, so ... meh.)

And it dawned on me that she probably got off of Nostredeus because she thought he was soft claiming vig when he said he'd claim at l-2 and we'd all have a good laugh and that he'd vigged his suspect Sotty

Hmm. Maybe. Don't think the timing works, off the top of my head, (because she talked about having thought it for 24 hours, and didn't Nost soft-claim well before that?), but maybe.

as an aside, if you think it's impossible to make those mistakes in assumptions, you haven't been paying enough attention to the idiotic things I say and do in games from time to time.

It's certainly possible to make these sorts of odd mistakes as town, yes. But I think they're at least somewhat more likely from somebody who is only pretending to be thinking about the game and to be trying to hunt scum than they are to come from actual town. (This isn't something I'd find especially damning if I didn't already have reasons to suspect TML, of course -- it's just one more oddity.)

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

*Whistles*

GG.

?

... hopefully that wasn't Nost soft-claiming lyncher .

[Plessiezarus]

Lyncher is a really awful role . And people who fluke their way to a win should probably not gloat about it.

[I guess that on balance it's a positive thing that Nost left the game when he did -- we won't be wasting a lynch on him, at least -- but it kind of irks me that he "won" because of two things he had nothing at all to do with (namely TGAH's day 1 push on him coupled with the Traitor flip, which cleared Nost of being Police + the fact TML was one of the people not cleared based on interactions with absta). I mean, his actual attempts to promote a TML lynch were just terrible exercises in poor logic and question-begging, as pretty much everyone pointed out. Meh.]

No problems with a mass-claim. Let's hope today isn't quite as depressingly futile as day 3 was?

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Agree camn should claim first. Would be nice if we didn't just sit around twiddling our thumbs while we waited for the mass-claim to happen though.

And kuribo- don't second guess.
If we both live, you will see.
I have a plan.

You and kuribo are both alive. What was your plan?

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Benmage

-- can you bullet-point your reasons for suspecting CDB? How much of it is the pattern of sudden activity when it was needed to avoid a lynch (and his subsequently vanishing again), how much is the possible buddying of sottyrulez on day 2 (by following their vote on Jason, right?) and how much is just POE? And is there some other reason I've forgotten about?

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Is Plessie in the neighborhood? Neighboorhoods up, aye?

Yeah, we're in the neighborhood. Haven't claimed in the QT though, so it makes sense we go first.

We're Wintell "Little Man" Royce, VT/Goon.

Don't think it matters which of Cerulean and DV claim next. DV, I guess, just to pick somebody.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

I really really don't like DV's claim at all. And I don't like how eager he was to claim it (he was asking ActionDan if the latter wanted him to claim his role in the neighbourhood since ... well, since ActionDan was still in the game). The rest of the neighborhood seem to think his willingness to claim "daytalk enabler" at all is a town-tell, apparently, but I can't agree. It's only a town-tell if "daytalk enabler" is his actual role, and I don't think it is. Zar and I suspect DV was just pleased with himself for coming up with the claim and wanted to get it out. He might well enable something else (perhaps the ability of the scum to eavesdrop on the Neighborhood QT I speculated about yesterday?). That might be what gave him the idea.

I don't like the fact DV's claimed role seems to contradict the wording of kuribo's role PM (in the QT, kuribo says his role PM promises he can talk to the people he neighborizes "at all times" which obviously isn't true if DV can prevent daytalk by dying). And, frankly, I don't believe Faraday is the sort of mod to include a "daytalk enabler" in the first place. Faraday loves daytalk and hates encryptors. Since it doesn't fit in with the flavour at all, why would Faraday go against his own previously expressed tastes and include this sort of role now?

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Also, A town daytalk enabler is quite different from a scum encryptor?

Not really? (I mean, yes, they're different roles, but to a mod who's on record as saying...

full daytalk or nothing

(preferably full daytalk)

... I don't think the distinction is that important?) A mod who hates encryptors and thinks scum should have "full daytalk or nothing" is unlikely to include a role whose death would prevent the scum having daytalk. Not when there's no sensible flavour justification for such a thing.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

If it was given to deasvail by the mod as a fake claim it was intended to be a safe claim. I don't like that pless is insinuating that deas made up his role himself and is congratulating himself for being so clever. I also dislike trying to claim a mod dislikes a particular role so it's impossible for him to have this role. Mina's crushing independent thought game had an encyptor, and since Mina is the backup mod and works with faraday on setups I don't think it's completely out of the question that this role could exist.

If you want to find deasvail suspicious on play, then make that case but I'm. It willing to lynch someone because his role might sound like a scum role. People did that to staeg in adwd because he was a Frey cop and that just couldn't be town, but it was.

Also, I'd like to ask you all. If he is scum, why bother admitting to daytalk enabler? Why not just claim one shot bodyguard, which wouldn't be questioned?

#1) Do you think kuribo lied about his role allowing him to talk with his neighbors at all times? Because otherwise, DeasVail's role as described the role is redundant.

#2) The fact that Mina is involved in the reviewing of the setup very likely points at chance of the Role PMs being double checked for ambiguity and/or having conflicting resolutions.

There are scenarios where you'd out yourself as enabler as scum:

#3) Assume being a non-communicating partner who's presence allows goons to have access to certain abilities/information. You'd surely want them to know you're what's giving them a boon?

#4) Assume a communicating partner being coached into claiming such a role. Players are unlikely to want you lynched just for it, and it's not really verifiable until flip?

#5) I'm going to guess the assumption of a BG-claim not being questioned is Empire's, I'm pretty sure Tammy has seen Faraday give very town-sounding roles to the scum more than once. Considering a BG isn't really a role that once outted would surely confirm itself even if successful, I don't exactly understand how the claim could go out without being questioned.

~Zar.

[Plessiezarus]

I don't like that pless is insinuating that deas made up his role himself

Oh dear, I wouldn't want to

insinuate

anything . Here, let me try again: I believe Deas made the role up himself. Better?

I really don't understand your problem with this idea. I don't understand at all why you keep saying:

If deasvail is scum and that is not his role, he was given that as a fake claim which was meant to be a safe claim.

Since when does Faraday give out entire

roles

as safe fake-claims? Fake

names

, yes, but I don't think I've ever seen him give out actual roles before without prompting.

He's given people help with flavour when they make up their own fake-claims, sure, but in the past he hasn't just said to people "here is a cool fake claim you can make!" when giving out their scum roles. If you look at the ASOS QT I linked to earlier, all the safe fake-names he gives the scum are written out as a VT fake-claims. And there are repeated examples in that game and the other Eddard Stark games of scum making up their own fake-claims.

Why are you so sure that any fake-claim somebody makes must have been given to them by a mod as a safe claim?

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

The fake-names given out to the scum in ADWD fit the same pattern. They're all written as vanilla town claims. Obviously the scum didn't only claim VT in that game though.

I will virtually pummel you both for not listening to a lick of anything we've said this game.

I honestly don't know why you're accusing us of not listening to "anything you've said". What precisely are you thinking of? I actually went out of my way on day 3 to ask you and the rest of the neighborhood why TML was a bad lynch and BT was a better choice. Your answer was "Meh he's not a better lynch probably ... we're fine with an equinox lynch I guess". And you've already said that Empire agreed with our SAD case.

In fact, while you personally had a town-read on SAD, you weren't exactly going out of your way to talk us out of suspecting him when you gave Empire's read's in #1992 as "Town - [kuribo] - [kise] - Arthur - BT - Scum". Or when you waffled in #1618 and gave a lot of reasons why Arthur could be scum: "quite frankly it weirded me out a little when arhtur made those effort walls because it reminded me of his sudden content after I threw my mini tantrum at him in the westeros game for not doing anything other than shitposting [...] Empire says that he's deferring to me for Arthur but that he thinks that everything arhtur has done so far could be easily faked. And I agree mostly. [...] His attitude sucks. [...] For instance the "whoever is town reading me had better have a good reason" don't read town to me at all. Is weird posturing for Arthur. His tone seems off". I dd listen to that, and it's part of why I was confident that SAD was scum -- you're the only person other than Zar and myself I'd trust to know SAD's meta, and you seemed to largely agree with me that he sounded not-town:?.

So ... when exactly did we fail to listen to you? I don't understand why you're saying this at all .

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

I'm also

clearly

not saying DV's claimed role is "impossible". (There isn't much I think is impossible after being in a game where the mod thought it was a good idea to include a Judas ). I actually say that the role DV is claiming is "unlikely" in 2744. "Unlikely" is a lot weaker than "impossible".

What about DV's play makes you think he's definitely town? How does his play in this game differ from his play in Zar's recent "Castle Zar" Normal game? (Other than claiming in the QT, I struggle to think of anything DV has even

done

in this game.)

Would also be happy enough with a Benmage wagon today, or even a Jason wagon. Really not sure Jason makes sense as Police, but I think he could easily be another third party role -- survivor, maybe? Benmage is the last person left in my day 3 shortlist of absta partners and has seemed a bit less engaged in the game than I'd expect at this point (though obviously, the fact there's only one name left on the list means I was going too far when I ruled some people out -- most likely absta did town-read at least one of his partners. I still think camn is unlikely to be partnered to absta though -- she would bus him, maybe, but I don't think he'd bus her ).

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

I think my hints at knowing scum have daytalk indicate that I planned to claim it all along, which is just weird on Day 1 or 2 or whatever it was.

Hmm. Your remark about scum having daytalk in 892 might be a point in your favour, yes. (This was after Dan claimed, but before you were neighborized.) Later hints all seem to be in the QT, after you've started hinting you want to claim, so I really don't think they mean much (Zar has already given an explanation of why you might want to claim in the QT as scum).

Does your role PM actually say outright that scum have daytalk, or is that just something you assumed?

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

And yes, with me being alive, anyone that can talk in a QT can do so at all times.

Does your role PM actually say outright that scum have daytalk, or is that just something you assumed?

(And why didn't you answer the question?)

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

... oh, wait, nevermind, I'm being stupid there .

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Our one potential paranoid theory was that he could be a wire-tap enabler and a traitor or something and changed it so that he wouldn't get killed, but that seems a little far fetched when he could shut up about it.

This was pretty much the theory Zar and I were tossing around. Suppose DV is a second Traitor to the Police. If he really has the ability to enable the scum to read the Orlando's QT, it makes sense he'd want to claim something in that QT that the scum would read and which would indicate to the scum that they shouldn't kill him. That doesn't really seem that far-fetched to me?

(If he's a second Traitor, then the scum team proper must be quite small? So they'd presumably need a protective role of some sort; he might not be lying about being a bodyguard.)

That said, while I don't have any sort of town-read on DV, I'm happy enough to lynch in the VT pool today. Can't really believe there are no scum in that group (and if DV's scum, my guess is he's only a Traitor anyway).

If Eq was 1-shot killproof, why didn't he lived? Nost wasn't the hammer vote.

Kill-proof isn't the same as lynch proof? (Not sure what the point of asking this question was.)

I'm against compromising to a Jason lynch because I'm pretty sure he's town, plus my two top scumreads want it to happen. I would switch my vote to Benmage or DeasVail if necessary, nobody else.

Are you confident Jason is town, or only that he's not-Police? If the former, why? (Hopefully the distinction makes sense.)

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

PROD DODGE.

Yeah, this.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Hmm. So, in the neighborhood, I made one post explaining I was a bit suspicious of CDB but didn't want to push him yet because I was hoping [a third player, who I won't name for now], who I also wanted a better read on, would push him first. I'm not exactly thrilled that DV went ahead and revealed my suspicions in this thread anyway, especially because he doesn't seem to have any interest in actually pushing CDB as a suspect. In fact, DV doesn't seem to have enough suspects at all:

At least tentatively, the town are Cerulean, Plessiez, Camn, Kuribo, CDB [...] I would be really happy to call Jason scum, but I keep going back to TGAH's vote which does seem weird. [... the idea that it's] part of a bussing plan just doesn't seem right to me at the moment. [...] And Kise I want to accept as the expensive doctor role thing for now.

Maybe I have a townread or two wrong, I don't know

You're (at least provisionally) town-reading

everyone but Benmage

in this post. And you "don't know" if you have any townreads wrong? How many scum are left?

Anyway, CDB. My main problem isn't so much his agreeing with my suspicions on DV (though I'm a bit wary of anybody who quickly agrees with me, especially in this game where my track record should hardly be inspiring such confidence). After all, I do think DV looks bad (or, at the very least, nowhere near as town as the neighborhood were suggesting on day 3).

My main issue with CDB was actually the tone of 2738. CDB's talk of "being in a good position" and urging us to "blaze through by PoE" just seems ... wildly optimisitc, really? It looks like the town's played terribly ever since day 2 began. We've not lynched any scum, we've let a third-party player achieve their wincon, and if CDB is right to suspect Benmage and Camn we haven't even really attempted the weakest of wagons on scum. Given all that, kuribo's paranoia and cerulean's apparent apathy are much more the sort of attitude I'd expect from town. Not the "victory is but a hair's breadth away!" confidence that I'm reading from CDB.

I'd like to know why it took so long for you camn to push this.

I, Like many, Have had a town read on him. But part of me really expected him to DECLARE himself with townie righteousness as the game progressed, which hasnt happened.

Feeling very paranoid about Benmage right now myself. Don't think the lack of "townie righteousness" is such a useful tell though? I mean, I've read a few (years old) Benmage town games where he had plenty of this attitude, but I remember him being much more subdued than I expected in ADWD (where he was town). I'm not sure TGAH would have faked their early hydra dissonance re:Benmage (with one reading him as town and one as scum) if Benmage were a Cop, either.

(I'm kind of hoping to make Zar do most of the scum-hunting today, since he's been overly smug in our QT about correctly reading BT . He's been pretty busy IRL though, so meh.)

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

What day 4 stance? Today's day 4.

Episode 4? *shrug*
Lost count.

Episode 4 was night 2. So, um. This doesn't actually make sense?

CDB hasn't been a problem for me

. As a refresher, why did you all (if you once suspected him) find him town after pushing him days ago?

This is a very good question (I'm pretty sure you said the case on CDB looked "reasonable" on day 2 though ). I'm definitely struggling to remember why I was persuaded CDB looked town. On a reread, he looks pretty bad. He got talkative when it looked like he was going to be the lynch, and people seemed to get cold feet, but the day 2 case on him still makes sense to me. And since then he's done nothing that makes me read him as town. His current attitude really feels off, too.

(Actually,

CDB

- looking at your iso, your suspicions of Benmage today kind of come out of nowhere. You've repeatedly town-read Benmage up until today. On day 2 you were "happy to assume he was town". On day 3 you claimed to reread him and decided he was a "reasonably solid town read". But then suddenly on day 4 you're "very confident" Benmage is scum and urge us to "blaze through this with PoE"? I just don't see where that came from -- you'd already read Benmage multiple times, apparently, and this time you decided you were "very confident" your previous reads had been completely wrong? Please explain more about why you reread day 1 and what exactly you were looking for when you did so.)

At the moment I'd rather lynch CDB than Benmage (and I'm simply not interested in anybody else today).

(Also, "Shaft", did you ever explain why you switched to an alt? Please do so, or direct me to the relevant link. Thanks.)



~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Ples...um...I guess it was D2 or 3 then. What day is this?

Not only does it say the current day

in every single vote-count

(including the one at the top of this page), but you literally just replied to a post in which Cerulean told you this:

Ben always makes bold plays, but I particularly liked his stance D4. Only thing I would find sus' about him are the absta interactions. Otherwise, he's not someone I'm urging to hang.

What day 4 stance? Today's day 4.

What stance of Benmage's did you like, specifically? What was it about, if you can't remember when it happened?

(And answer my other question too -- why did you decide to switch to the "Shaft" alt?)

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

I'm pretty sure I hadn't read Benmage very often compared to others - I'd be interested to see where you got this idea from.

Um. I got it from your day 3 posts? The ones I linked to, even. In particular, from this exchange you had with Benmage:

@CDB

why are you reading camn?[...]

I'm currently reading camn and you in iso, [...]

Can't really be arsed to finish my iso but basically, Benmage is a reasonably solid townread, particularly if camn is scum.

And yet, today ... you're pushing the idea that Benmage and camn are both scum

together

, and we can just "blaze through" with PoE.

When did you first start to seriously suspect Benmage?

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

But let me be clear about this: I am absolutely not going to let you people lynch me in this game. I have done too much work and put too much into it.

Is that meant to be a town-tell? Or are you seriously saying "you can't lynch me because I'm trying s

o hard

"?

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Pless, when the Equinox and Nost flips happened at the end of yesterday, I looked at my list of remaining reads and figured something was wrong. Benmage, being someone I couldn't really remember why I had a townread on, was someone I realised I had to reread. Hence the Day 1 reread and when I began to seriously suspect him.

But (according to the day 3 posts of yours I quoted last page), you'd only just reread him a week or so before these flips .

And you didn't just go from thinking "Benmage is town" to "hang on, maybe he's scum". You went from "Benmage is town, especially if camn is scum" to "we're in a great position and can just lynch Benmage and camn to win". I don't understand how your read can change so much and you still be so confident. Especially since you say you didn't even reread beyond the first half of the game this time.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

No. I'm not explaining to you why you're scum. I've already explained my suspicions to everyone else and you're welcome to read up on them if you like.

You've explained your reasons for suspecting Benmage once, unless I've missed something. You reread day 1 and decided he made sense as a partner to absta. Why refuse to say this again, or to link to the post in question?

Much like your (apparently deliberate) needling of camn on day 3, I really don't understand the need for this confrontational tone. And I don't understand why you're so reluctant to explain your cases more than once, or to bother rereading the whole game, yet at the same time insist you've invested loads in the game and consequently will "refuse" to be lynched. This is not a pro-town attitude.

Really, just how hard is it to link to or quote 2738?

Let me try ...

Benmage

TheGreatestAmericanHero votes Benmage in his first post - if the traitor knew the whole scumteam, this makes me want to vote Benmage. Scum are psychologically more likely to "randomly" vote a buddy because from their POV it becomes a direct choice between voting a buddy and not voting a buddy, a 50-50 rather than just going after whoever like town. It's a point against Benmage.

Benmage's 39: "Yes we are against the cops." - see I'm pretty sure that the natural response here is to say "yes, the cops are the scum" or "Barksdale is town, police is scum". He goes out of his way to say "we". I think you have to do that deliberately.

I could definitely see his 138 as a buddy interaction.

Benmage picks absta up on functional issues like where he is in his catchup and addressing his jason townread as too subjective - feels kinda like a safe interaction.

absta's 900 is begging for the "one-in-three" treatment. Out of Ben, DV and Cerulean I think Ben is clearly the likelier pick (for being at the top of the list as well as scumminess).

... oh, turns out it isn't very hard to do at all. Is there something more to your case on Benmage than the above and "PoE"?

While I'm looking at your iso, another quick quesstion:

I don't see any reason to doubt the Jason-is-not-Police read and I don't see any reason to disagree with Sottyrulez's townread on him. Thus, not lynching him.

Exactly how much is sotty's read on Jason influencing your current Jason read?

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

back later this evening. gotta make dinner first.

Does Jason use a slow-cooker or something? This has got to be the world's longest dinner preparation.

Jason, can you tell us more about those alternative suspects instead of kuribo you keep procrastinating?

predictable and annoying self-vote to CDB's "suspects" usual inflammatory posts

^ and that is supposed to make you town because?

~ Zar.

[Plessiezarus]

If Jason hammers Benmage while Benmage is still self-voting and Benmage flips town, I'll be pretty annoyed. Talk about not playing to your wincon .

The self-vote just seems such an odd thing to do though. If somebody you have a scum-read on isn't being helpful, why express your anger by voting for

yourself

and not by voting for them? Just doesn't make much sense to me. Also, self-voting after saying things like

Unfortunately, I have never seen scum selfvote. Never. (atleast from memory which I'm very confident with)

and

you can check my meta. I've never had scum self-vote. I see town do it from time to time, its SHITTTY play but it's OFTEN town.

seems a little too self-aware for my liking.

On the other hand, I think CDB still looks worse. He's "rarely been as invested" in a game, apparently. Yet he completely forgot about rereading Benmage on day 3 and deciding he was town. Instead, he quickly became "very confident" that Benmage was scum based on reading day 1 overnight ... and has no motivation to read further, So he's "invested", just not paying attention to his own reads or motivated to read the thread properly.

Other than talking himself out of being lynched on day 2 (which, to be fair, is something he should be justifiably pleased with if he's scum), I really don't see all the work he's claimed to put into the game, either. Not happy at all that he seems to think this is a reason he shouldn't be lynched. At the same time, the day 1 links with absta and TGAH haven't gone away. And I'm not happy with the fact he keeps going back to sotty as a reason to town-read Jason (since sotty gave up that town-read on day 2, which is something CDB definitely knew about and yet now ignores entirely).

Benmage's last few posts read like scum giving up, but CDB's posts today read like scum confident of victory. I know which attitude I'm more worried about.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Forgot to VOTE: CDB.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

I'll get to this tomorrow.

Er. Given:

I am stating intent to hammer when I get back on tomorrow if someone already has not.

I'm guessing that tomorrow the day will most likely have ended.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Still think Jason's a bad lynch today based on absta interaction, though.

Based on

absta

interaction? Not because of TGAH interaction?

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Jason

-- we've got over three days left to go, and both DV and Cerulean have promised to post something more substantial soon. I don't see any reason to hammer before they have the chance to do that, so I'd recommend that you hold off for a bit. Day 4's been a damp squib as it is, may as well

try

to get some discussion out of it.

--
Also, people should stop ignoring my questions? Case in point:

(Also, "Shaft", did you ever explain why you switched to an alt? Please do so, or direct me to the relevant link. Thanks.)

I really would like an answer to this, Kise.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

I've gone over the remaining players a million times in my head. While the suspect pool I'm left with always has both CDB and Benmage in it, I highly doubt they're both scum bussing each other. On that train of thought, if Benmage is lynched and flips scum, I doubt CDB is partnered to him. But if Benmage flips town, I think we really need to lynch CDB tomorrow.

~.Zar

[Plessiezarus]

Benmage's recent posts feel scummy at first glance, as if he's trying too hard to look town almost?

Clever of you to have already voted for him, then! Although "I don't feel like Benmage is scum but I'll vote for him anyway [a week passes] oh, his recent posts feel scummy" seems an odd way to go about scum-hunting.

Explain why you're town, again?

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Setup speculation got a lot less interesting once the SK-or-vig slot was claimed by somebody everyone has a town-read on and almost everyone else claimed VT?

And I think I tried answering this question in the Neighborhood QT already, but anyway. (I don't think the question "is this balanced?" is really answerable yet because we can't know the scum roles. Answering "would Faraday use these roles?" instead, which subsumes that question anyway.)

Because can someone tell me how likely it is that town has a 1 shot BG, and 1 shot kill-proof, an expensive doctor, a joat, a 3 shot vig, a 3 shot neighborizer, and a friendly neighbor?

This actually seems like it's possible to me given Faraday's past Large Themes. It arguably points to a large-ish and mostly power-roled scum team though. (I actually don't think town

does

have both an expensive doctor and a bodyguard, but if I didn't find DV suspicious in his own right then I might?)

Just looking at the ASOIAF games Faraday modded (and ignoring Game of Thrones, because it was a mini), we've got:

Spoiler: A Clash of Kings

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?t=14239
This had 27 players. It was multiball (with two scumteams of 4 each and a SK).
- 5 of the 9 antitown players had power roles (two godfathers, a watcher, a roleblocker and the SK was bulletproof)
- town had 10 power roles, including a bulletproof townie, a jailkeeper, a doctor, a 3-shot assassin and a 6-shot neighborizer

That's a bulletproof, two protective roles and a multiple-shot neighborizer. The assassin was basically an inventor who only gave out night-kills, if I remember correctly. That's strictly weaker than a 3-shot vig, of course.

Spoiler: A Storm of Swords

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?t=16341
This had 25 players. It was also multiball (with two asymmetrical scum teams, one of 5 and one of 2, and a lyncher)
- all the antitown players except the lyncher had power roles
- town had 11 power roles (arguably 10, I suppose), including a JOAT, a roleblocker, a doctor, a 1-shot vigilante and a nerfed friendly neighbor (only communicated character name, not alignment)

That's a JOAT, a 1-shot vigilante and a doctor (plus another role that could potentially stop a kill).

Spoiler: A Feast For Crows

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?t=19468
This had 24 players. Only a single scum faction (6 players, counting the scum-aligned treestump Littlefinger).
- All the scum had power roles
- town had 9 power roles, including a roleblocker, a non-consecutive commuter, a weak doctor, a 1-shot vigilante and a bodyguard

A bodyguard, a 1-shot vigilante, and three roles that could stop a kill.

Spoiler: A Dance With Dragons

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=56&t=23120
28 players
Multiball (two scum factions, each with 4 members, though one of the four included a (recruitable?) traitor)
- 6 of the scum had power roles (including the traitor)
- town had 8 power roles (at least one of which was just a joke though), including torturer, non-consecutive roleblocker, champion (basically an improved gladiator?) and JOAT

Champion is a de facto vig-shot. Torturer is roleblock+investigation. Town feels slightly underpowered here, actually, compared to previous Faraday games.

So, um. Could town have "1 shot BG, and 1 shot kill-proof, an expensive doctor, a joat, a 3 shot vig, a 3 shot neighborizer, and a friendly neighbor"? Maybe! Obviously three of those roles are confirmed town. The kill-proof is obviously meant to be balanced by the fact that Avon was a lyncher target. We don't know what power the JOAT actually had. Friendly Neighbour turned out to be a useful role because the McStab slot was suspected, but it's potentially less useful (if it goes to a strong townread who would have died early anyway).

That leaves BG, doctor, vig and neighborizer. Think at least one of {BG, doctor} should be town, and as I write this I'm actually tempted to think that town is actually underpowered if the claimed vig is lying. (That might be wishful thinking though?) Could definitely see Faraday giving neighborizer to scum. Fits okay with flavour, too, really. But kuribo's posts in the neighborhood QT feel genuine? (I also highly doubt scum!ActionDan neighborizes a buddy on night 1. Just doesn't make sense to me, and it doesn't seem to fit their interactions in the neighborhood QT either.)

Feel I'm starting to ramble, but basically the only options I see as plausible at the moment are

(1) Everyone claiming a PR is town.
(2) Kise is scum and everyone else claiming a PR is town.
(3) DV is scum and everyone else claiming a PR is town.
(4) Kuribo is scum and everyone else claiming a PR is town.
(5) Kise and Kuribo are both scum, the other two claimed PRs are town.

(Okay, or Cerulean is a SK and Zdenek is raging in the dead thread and wishing we'd listened to him on day 3 . But I really don't think that's true and I'm basically only mentioning it for completeness.)

Actually, town feels a bit weak in (5), too? Tempted to rule that out, but not sure I really can. (Would suggest a pretty small/weak scum team though? I mean, Kise and Kuribo would pretty much have to

be

the surviving scum team, which ... doesn't seem right.)

We also seem to be missing one of the weird/pointless roles Faraday likes to throw in. No Frey Cop, no Paranoid Daycop, no Tablesetter... guess that might point towards DV's claim being legitimate, but meh.

The number of claimed VTs surprised me at first (though more VTs seems to be the direction Faraday's modding is going in: ACOK had 7 VTs out of 27 players [26%], ASOS had 6 out of 25 [24%], AFFC had 9 out of 24 [38%] and ADWD had 12 out of 28 [43%]).

Still, given the flips we've had (and obvious flavour), I'd expect all the Cops to have ... well, Cop roles? At least investigative roles of some sort. And this pattern is sufficiently obvious after absta and TGAH's flips that the scum would not have risked claiming them. Making VT the obvious claim for scum today? (Flavour is part of why I think DV is more likely to be a Traitor than full Cop, actually.) Think it's entirely possible that all the remaining scum are in the claimed VT pile. (If there are three scum left, that would mean we started with 6 VT out of 19, or 32%, which seems entirely plausible to me.)

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Ok, so I don't like Benmage apparently not caring whether he or CDB is lynched first, and I've become less sure of CDB-town recently as well. Unfortunately, I haven't read through their ISOs recently, and don't feel right now that I could properly decide between them.

But you

have

decided between them -- you're voting for one of them. So the above just seems a very odd thing to say.

Please explain in your own words why you believed CDB was town, and why you've become "less sure" of this.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Prodding ChannelDelibird

Fans of irony might enjoy comparing CDB's current 51 days and counting absence from the thread with his 2202 ("[TML] has shown zero urgency to turn around the tide of opinion. I've been there as scum before and done exactly the same thing.") or indeed with:

I mean, literally, we caught him and then he stopped posting. We have all seen this before.

Since camn's vote made him the largest wagon, CDB has stayed away from the thread. He's made a couple of posts out of the game, so this isn't any sort of site-wide flake, but he's not come back to argue against his lynch or to push harder for Benmage. People keep telling me hypocrisy isn't a scum-tell, but ...

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

EBWOP: 51

hours

, even .

[Plessiezarus]

I'd say, besides Jason's uselessness, there are at least two slots in this game whose current contribution amounts to a series of continued excuses. So, while these people get their acts together and make their play worth

at least

a nickel, I'm going to

UNOVTE CDB

.

~.Zar

[Plessiezarus]

*EBWOP in case it wasn't clear,

UNVOTE CDB

, just because I apparently can't spell.

~. Zar.

[Plessiezarus]

The apathy in this game is kind of irritating. Those of you who are coasting and aren't scum should try harder. Why sign up for a game you're not interested in actually playing?

DV should try harder too.

I'm more comfortable posting on this account.

Why? You're still posting as Kise at this site.

I'm more comfortable posting on this account. You have four eyes and can't read?

I share Cerulean's confusion. What about

this particular game

makes you "more comfortable" in your Shaft alt? (You're playing other games as Kise). Why did you decide only on day 3 that you were "more comfortable" playing as an alt?

see this is what confuses me. there is no scummy motive for the change, given it is a known Alt. I could buy it as scummy if the Alt was unknown as Kise. As a scum ploy to screw with meta. but meh, I dont see too much to read into on it.

Shaft is ... pretty much a Cop, right? (He's a private investigator, anyway.) If Kise's a traitor, there's some scummy motivation to try to signal to the rest of the scum team, maybe? Don't really think that that's too likely. But my problem is I really struggle to understand the motivation for replacing yourself with a known alt

at all

. Especially when you do it mid-game, and keep playing other games as your old account. I can't help but be suspicious when people do things that seem to make no sense.

But you have decided between them -- you're voting for one of them. So the above just seems a very odd thing to say.

Benmage is in no danger of being lynched right now, so my vote for him is not very significant in my opinion.

That's ... not really the point. The point is that the thought progression shown in your posts ("I don't feel Benmage is scum, but everyone else looks like town" ... "actually maybe Benmage is scum, his last few posts are suspicious" ... "I can't decide between Benmage and CDB") just seems utterly disconnected from your actual voting history.

And this really wasn't the bit of 2906 I was waiting for you to respond to. That would be this bit:

Please explain in your own words why you believed CDB was town, and why you've become "less sure" of this.

I'd still like you to have a go at this.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

And you know what? I don't care for the theory that DV is a second traitor. I don't want that kind of dangerous thought process to keep possible po-po alive. Taking away daytalk is a heavy blow for scum, and like I said, it'd be weird to setup a game where scum can kill someone and PUNISH them for it. And you can't say we don't have enough time because we've looked at DV plenty.

DV and CDB's feelings for each other make them look like an easy pair so I will vote either with a preference to eliminate the encryptor first.

If your preference is to vote DV, why haven't you done so?

If you think DV is a Cop, why do you believe he's telling the truth about his claim? I mean, I agree that a town-aligned day-talk enabler is kind of swingy, but all the arguments against Faraday having used a "daytalk enabler" seem even stronger if DV is actually a Cop .

(I definitely agree CDB and DV look like they could be partners though. Actually slightly surprised to see DV voting for CDB now.)

But, shadoweh did die night one for some reason. It can't just be because of the absta thing because more than one person went after absta. She did attack ben? Don't know how much I think this is likely though.

Meh. It

might

have just been because of the absta thing? (I mean, shadoweh isn't the only person to have suspected absta, nor the most vocal, but scum can only kill people one at a time ...). Having a hard time seeing an obvious motive for either the shadoweh or sottyrulez NKs. A few ideas, but nothing concrete. Not sure it's worth speculating much until (unless?) we have another scum flip. (A lot of the 'obvious' people not dying early can probably just be explained by the threat of the Doctor?)

I mean I know there are the arguments that Faraday wouldn't use it or doesn't like it, but it still fits the flavor.

How

does it fit the flavour? People (whether Barksalde or the Cops) don't use Wallace to carry messages. His being alive doesn't allow people to talk in Orlando's. His death doesn't stop people talking.

(Really though, Ronnie Mo as JOAT and Sterling as Friendly Neighbor don't particularly fit the flavor either, so I don't know how much this matters either way).

Still think Jason's play is atrocious and am afraid we're letting scum go based on a theory about tgah which might not even turn out to be true.

If DV is town, I think Jason is a very good candidate for a hypothetical second Traitor. (And I guess that would point towards Kise, Kuribo and Benmage all being town?)

I just can't imagine what TGAH thought he was doing if he knew Jason was a Cop. (Bussing really makes no sense unless TGAH

knew

that the Cops knew he was a Traitor. Otherwise you're begging for the NK, if nothing else. Although ... yeah, recruitable, maybe? Bah.)

~ Pless