Mewbie 2094 -- GAME OVER

[Lukewarm]

Hello

[Lukewarm]

What'd I miss?

[Lukewarm]

feel better catboi. <3

welcome Tepid! Is this the first time we've actually played together? wild.

No, I don't think that we have managed to cross paths.

Although, I have seen your user name used as a pretty bad pun fairly regularly lol

"Thats the worst" - "No, the worst isn't in this game" ect, ect.

[Lukewarm]

Just random thing that I noticed when looking at the replacement requests for this game, I noticed that Asphodelus (which I originally asked to rep into their slot) had repped out of more then one game, so likely the rep out is NAI.

[Lukewarm]

Can we maj someone in the next 24 hours?

Do you have preferences on who that someone is?

[Lukewarm]

VOTE: goldfish

A better vote.

I just want to repeat this early: a newbie game day one shouldn't last much more than ten pages

I feel like this is terrible advice, but I am leaning town on Bella so far on page one lol

[Lukewarm]

I'd rather not discuss what replacements mean in context of the game in any way

I mean my conclusion was that it was NAI, but okay

[Lukewarm]

mmmm what's your plan of attack when I flip town and someone really obvious dies at night? I know this is a really two dimensional question but untiered reads without contingencies strike me as pretty likely to not find scum with this playerlist

What do you mean "without contingencies" here?

[Lukewarm]

Find myself a little too wrapped up in conversation, not enough forward momentum.

VOTE: Bellaphant

Call it a gut feeling.

I had the exact opposite reaction to Bella's entrance. What made you cast this vote?

[Lukewarm]

Find myself a little too wrapped up in conversation, not enough forward momentum.

VOTE: Bellaphant

Call it a gut feeling.

I had the exact opposite reaction to Bella's entrance. What made you cast this vote?

Actually ignore this. The post that I made me think Bella is town was after this vote

[Lukewarm]

VOTE: goldfish

A better vote.

I just want to repeat this early: a newbie game day one shouldn't last much more than ten pages

I don't love this - D1 should last until it runs out of steam or until deadline, whichever comes first. Sometimes that's page 10, sometimes it's page 25. I suspect this might be one of the longer ones but maybe that's just me.

And at both of you: Why’d you assume I was talking about scumreads first? It’s not an unreasonable assumption to make, but it is a (slightly) unnecessary one. I already know about the importance of both townreads and scumreads.

Most people mean "scumreads" when they say "reads", but you're not wrong.

I rather not bring up past games, that was weird.

This is... interesting when you immediately afterwards post 34. Granted the contexts are slightly different but it's an interesting dichotomy of thought.

@GoodMorning, why is your vote serious?

Why do you think?

VOTE: catboi

This is a serious vote.

I'd like to hear the reasoning behind this.

What do you think the reasoning is?

VOTE: catboi

This is a serious vote.

I am unfazed.

Do you think I was expecting that my vote would bother you in some way?

I sort of agree, that you need 'more info' but I think everyone has this weird double think where we know a day 1 elim is probably town and then I think sometimes momentum gets lost. I tend to find day one much easier to look back on with the Info about flips. But yes, w need some content to look back on.

[...]

It's a very nai statement to make though. Scum!Bella is happy to speed through day one and elim a townie

So you do think that 10 pages may be speedy? What makes you think momentum gets lost from second-guessing the wagons more than other factors?

I would also argue that if one's preferred wagon loses momentum, then one should consider pushing harder, but that may also just be me.

Oof, quotestriping on mobile is tedious.

I hate this post from GM.

[Lukewarm]

I am not gonna be able to read up tonight, and getting sleepy.

Liking Bella for town, and I think that cat might be town for a really bad reason, but bad reasons tend to stick in my head lol

[Lukewarm]

I am not gonna be able to read up tonight, and getting sleepy.

Liking Bella for town, and I think that cat might be town for a really bad reason, but bad reasons tend to stick in my head lol

you're going to need to specify whether you mean the boi or the .jpeg this game

Oh, I meant cat.jpeg

I don't think I have or ever will shorten you down to cat. Don't know why, but it doesn't feel right lol

[Lukewarm]

VOTE: numbers

I don't like how you've been playing the returning player card since the start of the game.

VOTE: T02.

I don't like how you [insert random thing about someone that isn't related to the game in hand] since the start of the game.

This feels confrontational in a way that I would not expect newbie scum to be so early in the game.

[Lukewarm]

My issue was I didn't like syugars posting, then I didn't like GM's response, then I didn't like how catboi called syugars posting town! I'm liking catbois progression much more.

I think in particular w/r/t syugar I've seen other players take that kind of aggressive approach where they seem to fos a lot of people on entry and gotten wary of it because of how wide their suspicion seemed to be, but the player ended up being town anyway. Just think stylistically the scattered approach is more likely to be town where scum faking aggression take a narrow-tunnel approach


If I assemble my vague townish feelings together, I have Cat.Jpeg (feel very good about this one), goldfish, bella, and syugar. It's possible I'm wrong on one of these because it's earrly, but if it

is

true it would mean all the scum would be in GM, Ash, T02, and jumble. Which feels...plausible?

Catboi, what moved TO2 into your scum pile, given you seemed to town read their entrance?

[Lukewarm]

Just know that you probably won't get very much information if I am eliminated, if we eliminate T02 or Cat.jpeg, even if whichever one is eliminated isn't scum, we get some information out of it due to their reads, and I would say there may be a good chance of either of them being scum

I have not gotten to a single one of your posts yet on my catch up, but I gotta say, I don't love this.

Yes, there are players whose flips might glean more "information" then other players, but seeing it come from you, about yourself, feels self-aware in a way that seems bad.

You are stating that you are a bad elim because you don't have as many reads as TO2 or Cat.jpeg, but I also just saw you openly prodging instead of trying to get reads?

[Lukewarm]

My issue was I didn't like syugars posting, then I didn't like GM's response, then I didn't like how catboi called syugars posting town! I'm liking catbois progression much more.

I think in particular w/r/t syugar I've seen other players take that kind of aggressive approach where they seem to fos a lot of people on entry and gotten wary of it because of how wide their suspicion seemed to be, but the player ended up being town anyway. Just think stylistically the scattered approach is more likely to be town where scum faking aggression take a narrow-tunnel approach


If I assemble my vague townish feelings together, I have Cat.Jpeg (feel very good about this one), goldfish, bella, and syugar. It's possible I'm wrong on one of these because it's earrly, but if it

is

true it would mean all the scum would be in GM, Ash, T02, and jumble. Which feels...plausible?

Catboi, what moved TO2 into your scum pile, given you seemed to town read their entrance?

Another thought that I had about this post, is that cat.jpeg going from "the person catboi was voting" to his single highest town read is probably + town for him.

[Lukewarm]

I replaced goldfish, the worst replaced Ash

[Lukewarm]

Not a big fan of the fact that the worst seems to be one of your top scum reads (they were in all three of your alternative scum team options), but you don't have what slot they are sorted out in your head.

[Lukewarm]

Does your scum read on The Worst come more from them after rep in? What was your read on Ash before the rep out happened?

[Lukewarm]

Hm. You were voting Ash for a long time.

[Lukewarm]

Does your scum read on The Worst come more from them after rep in? What was your read on Ash before the rep out happened?

This will be answered if you finish reading the thread before asking questions

I find interacting with people in real time at least as important (if not more so) to figuring out reads then just reading the back log of the thread. So, yeah, I'm gonna prod at you if I see something that makes me think your reads are fake.

What was your read on Goldfish before the rep?

[Lukewarm]

It's important, but you disregard the question that I didn't answer and have moved on to a new one?

I went and found the answer to that quesiton on my own

Hm. You were voting Ash for a long time.

---

IIRC I was scumreading their entrance, but wasn't convinced because they were claiming their scum meta was wildly different (polarized). I thought that was weird. I asked multiple times for someone to show me a Goldfish scum game since multiple people seemed to know about this, but nobody ever sent me one.

noted.

[Lukewarm]

I opened your ISO, hit control f, typed "vote: " to see your voting history.

And promptly saw that Ash was your most recent vote prior to your recent switch to Tidus, and that that vote had been cast like 5 days ago.

[Lukewarm]

I opened your ISO, hit control f, typed "vote: " to see your voting history.

And promptly saw that Ash was your most recent vote prior to your recent switch to Tidus, and that that vote had been cast like 5 days ago.

I don't believe that you didn't know this before asking that question. 1 minute is too fast. I believe that you were performatively asking questions you already knew the answer to, although to what end I am not sure. What do you think about that?

I think that you must be pretty slow on a computer to think that I couldn't spot check that information that quickly.

But, I also think that this post (492) is not very likely a defense that scum would make

[Lukewarm]

If you say so.

I I am not sure what made you think that

[I saw your post -> I asked a question I knew the answer to-> I then answered my own question without waiting for you to answer -> I moved on to more questions]

is a sequence that makes more sense then

[I saw your post -> it made me suspicious -> I asked a question -> I immediately went to see if I could find that information myself -> I asked follow up questions based on the information that I had found]

(I hate the way this post is formatted, but I cannot find a better way to do it x.x)

[Lukewarm]

Taking a break:

Currently don't want Bella, cat.jpeg, catboi, or syugar to be the elim.

I have possibly the most thoughts on Goodmorning of literally any slot in the game, but they are conflicting thoughts so I am having a really hard time sorting her

I would not stand in the way of any of Tidus, the worst, Takem, GM

[Lukewarm]

I have gotten to Tidus's rep in, and I have found an equally bad reason to think that Tidus is town as that reason that I thought that cat.jpeg was town. These are the posts that caught my attention.

Spoiler:

What is up with that cake that is on some posts, I had a cake on my first post too, why?

Also, what's this ISO option on posts?

They both read as genuine curiosity to me that pings me as town.

Like, newbie scum, generally self conscious, sees something that they don't understand - I picture them seeking refuge in their PT where they would feel safe, and they can ask their partner, to avoid possibly looking dumb in the main thread.

[Lukewarm]

I don't follow your question. I see that post, and my gut reaction to reading it is to think town by virtue of it existing.

I am aware that it is a bad reason to serve as a bedrock for a read, and given his earlier statement I am not even really sure I want to try to save him here.

[Lukewarm]

I am probably done for the night (off to see my mom lol).

At this point, if gth I had to pick the elim it would be between goodmorning or T02.

I won't be mad about the worst or tidus going through, but I would prefer one of the other two.

[Lukewarm]

Through present:

My issue was I didn't like syugars posting, then I didn't like GM's response, then I didn't like how catboi called syugars posting town! I'm liking catbois progression much more.

I think in particular w/r/t syugar I've seen other players take that kind of aggressive approach where they seem to fos a lot of people on entry and gotten wary of it because of how wide their suspicion seemed to be, but the player ended up being town anyway. Just think stylistically the scattered approach is more likely to be town where scum faking aggression take a narrow-tunnel approach


If I assemble my vague townish feelings together, I have Cat.Jpeg (feel very good about this one), goldfish, bella, and syugar. It's possible I'm wrong on one of these because it's earrly, but if it

is

true it would mean all the scum would be in GM, Ash, T02, and jumble. Which feels...plausible?

Catboi, what moved TO2 into your scum pile, given you seemed to town read their entrance?

Another thought that I had about this post, is that cat.jpeg going from "the person catboi was voting" to his single highest town read is probably + town for him.

I drew the opposite conclusion from this - he doesn't seem to have had any real reason to change his mind at that point, none of what Cat was doing in between the vote and unvote was AI, so either the vote was fake or the unvote was, imo. What about it makes you think it improves the likelihood of catboi being town?

I would expect scum!catboi to be more worried about his trajectory on the slot looking good. I also disagree that cat.jpeg wasn't looking townie at the time, so :shrug:

Not a big fan of the fact that the worst seems to be one of your top scum reads (they were in all three of your alternative scum team options), but you don't have what slot they are sorted out in your head.

This is not a bad point, and syugar's response to it was not great.

Depends what you are calling their response. I immediately did not like 483, 485, 488 and was considering voting them -- but then 492.

I kinda doubt that scum would see me correctly calling out their read as fake there, and take an approach to attack me based on the time stamps of when I asked the question vs when I found the answer myself. If he is scum then he knows that that timeline is simply true. And I doubt that he would think that calling me out over the timeline would in any way sway me, or actually discredit my point in anyway to other people.

It makes more sense to me as coming from an OMGUSing townie.

[Lukewarm]

Not a big fan of the fact that the worst seems to be one of your top scum reads (they were in all three of your alternative scum team options), but you don't have what slot they are sorted out in your head.

This is not a bad point, and syugar's response to it was not great.

i thought it was a very bad point cuz its obvious throughout the rest of my iso that i have been playing with the correct replacements in mind and i made an error whilst posting quickly in the morning, im curious why you think its good

I for one think that it was a very good point, thank you very much

If you had Ash as your top scum read, and then carried over having the worst as one of your strongest scum reads, not having it straight that they were the same slot in that post, on the surface, made it look like you were not thinking as critically about the slot as would make sense for your top scum read.

[Lukewarm]

I...thought about it a bit, and I don't think GM is the play today.

@catboi, what makes GM not the play today?

[Lukewarm]

I have finished my catch up.

VOTE: Tidus

The thing that I like about the ISO comment was a nice ping when I reached that point in the thread, but I did not realize that they literally fell off the face of the thread afterwards, which is definitely not a good look, and makes their in 462 worse.

I also have a worry that would be anti-town to voice currently if we were to start exploring alternative wagons.

[Lukewarm]

does someone have an idea of what the VC is right now?

Unofficial vote count

the worst: (1) catboi
Catboi: (1) goodmorning
Cat.jpeg: (1) Bellaphant
Tidus of the X: (3) the worst, syugar, Lukewarm

Not Voting (3): Tidus of the X, cat.jpeg, Takemikazuchi02

[Lukewarm]

I may have jumped the gun with my last comment, but I am still happy with my Tidus vote

[Lukewarm]

I have gotten to Tidus's rep in, and I have found an equally bad reason to think that Tidus is town as that reason that I thought that cat.jpeg was town. These are the posts that caught my attention.

Spoiler:

What is up with that cake that is on some posts, I had a cake on my first post too, why?

Also, what's this ISO option on posts?

They both read as genuine curiosity to me that pings me as town.

Like, newbie scum, generally self conscious, sees something that they don't understand - I picture them seeking refuge in their PT where they would feel safe, and they can ask their partner, to avoid possibly looking dumb in the main thread.

I don't think this is a reason to townread someone at all. Didnt think about it when i asked but I would have definitely asked still if i was scum, probably even more so because of how innocuous it would make me look.

Also what does maj mean, i have guessed from context but would like to make sure I have the correct definition. I will be making a lot of posts soon, it will take a while though but most of you are sleeping so its fine.

I am aware that it is a bad reason to town read someone.

I believe it means majority, as in hammer

[Lukewarm]

I maintain Tidus very likely flips town. I am incredibly suspicious of worst for pushing there and it probably tanks syugar in my estimation as well. Don't think they're scum together but doubt both are town.

I think to some extent flopping around and forcing out a bunch of claims at deadline is anti-town but I can't in good conscience send this through so I'll sit back in protest until we're truly running out of time with no alternative.

Is there a reason that this is applied directly to the worst and syugar, but not to me or Bella who are also voting there or to cat.jpeg or t02 who are willing to hammer?

---

Also, you think that the tidus wagon is bad, and you don't want us to kill there -- but you are not going to present who you want us to kill instead?

[Lukewarm]

I am worried that catboi is TMIing Tidus as town.

[Lukewarm]

I am worried that catboi is TMIing Tidus as town.

you ought to know better by now and it is frankly irritating to be treated this way for defending a read

I am not suspicious of you "defending a read." You are not pushing for a change of course, you are just shading the people who scum read him.

I don't think that it makes sense for you to be so sure that tidus is town as to result in you scum reading people for thinking he is scum.

I also don't think that this is the way you would play with him if you are partners with him.

[Lukewarm]

I don't think that it makes sense for you to be so sure that tidus is town as to result in you scum reading people for thinking he is scum.

And even if you are that strongly town reading him. --What about the worst or syugar scum read there is dropping your read on them.

Like, what about Tidus's play here do you think means that town!worst and town!syugar would be less likely to be pushing there then scum!worst and scum!syugar?

[Lukewarm]

I don't think that he ever plays this way if Tidus is scum.

I think that he would be loudly pushing an alternative wagon, and trying to save Tidus that way. Or, he would have accepted the inevitable and tried to get towncred on the bus.

Reading up, I saw him voicing suspicions on the worst, but never really trying to canvas the votes.

[Lukewarm]

I am in a foul mood. I am coming off an offsite game a few days ago where I lost and barely anyone spoke to me like I was in the game at all or even a human being. I am persistently treated this way in games. I am very sick of it. You're not helping me right now, Luke.

I am sorry that you feel this way. My last post was written as a direct response to 571, and you just happened to ninja me there. My last two posts before that were written directly to you.

[Lukewarm]

If it makes you feel any better, I very much like you are a person and am happy to see you in every game that we have run into one another.

I think that I made the comment to you once before that it was impressive that you managed to make me feel like you were someone that I looked forward to seeing in future games on two different accounts while I did not know you were the same person lol

[Lukewarm]

No deaths is good-ish. Given how stalled out things were yesterday, I was thinking that if no PRs died during the night we'd have people claim to narrow down the pool of suspects. Thoughts? (taking a page from LLD with this strategy)

I am not opposed to this, i dont think? LLD convinced me that day 2 popcorn pr claims is good in general a while back - but I have not thought a out whether a lack of kill affects that at all.

[Lukewarm]

Also

@ mod, I am VL/A until Sunday

[Lukewarm]

What does LLD mean?

She is a user.

We had a discussion about it after she lead something similar in a different newbie game.

Here is most of her answer about it, but she does have a few more posts following. if you're interested you can follow the link to that game

Spoiler:

Hello. It is I, a watcher from the shadows

@LLD

Can you talk about what led you to making this play?

Spoiler:

Today is the day for a mass claim, btw. We're in a 5:2 situation, and we have 2 confirmed townies we can create, with a possible better outcome depending on roles.

So we need to organize a popcorn claiming list. We pick the scummiest person, and then make them claim, then, they tell someone else to claim, and we go down the list. This way, it makes counter claims a little harder to fake too.

I also think, for the immediate moment in the claim order, you shouldn't claim your ROLE, just whether you are a Vanilla Townie or a Power Role.

If we have any counter claiming, we can use that to try and catch people, but if we don't, we don't reveal what power is where to the scum.

Anyone disagree with this?

[/sp/oiler]

Never seen something like that suggested day 2 of a newbie game, and was the reason I started spectating this game lol

So, let's start with the non mechanical reasons.

We'd just flipped a townie, and the game was at risk of hitting apathy. Forcing a mass claim creates new info and makes people have to chew on it and make decisions. I felt that using the mass claim timing here would provide town +EV if done like this.

Now, mechanical stuff: Popcorn because it prevents scum from being able to do weird fake claim stuff, and only claiming "power role or no" because of the same.

The way this setup is built creates the possibility for duplication errors. In that a cop is fine, ubt there's no guarantee the jailkeeper that claims is real or not, because the cop can't know the setup. It could be a real jailkeeper, or it could be mafia making the guess from that position.

Having popcorn'd order makes it harder to plan the timing of a fake claim, and having hidden role names and only claiming to have power or not hides the setup they need to duplicate.

Had more than one person claimed a power role, we would have been making them power claim in reverse order of the order they claimed, and then evaluating what came from that.

In essence, doing it this way created the GUARANTEE of a few confirmed townies, or gave us a guilty and a good plan. In this scenario, my play wasn't super necessary since we had a cop with a guilty

but what happens if the cop just claims the guilty and then the jailkeeper claims later?

Cop claims it, we kill 1, and the fake jail keeper "clears" someone as not the person who killed the cop and then it's GG. It's game over. Then the JK no kills, claims a guilty and boom.

We lose to duplication error.

Doing it this way prevents ALL that gambit shit.

[Lukewarm]

What does LLD mean?

She is a user.

We had a discussion about it after she lead something similar in a different newbie game.

Here is most of her answer about it, but she does have a few more posts following. if you're interested you can follow the link to that game

Spoiler:

Hello. It is I, a watcher from the shadows

@LLD

Can you talk about what led you to making this play?

Spoiler:

Today is the day for a mass claim, btw. We're in a 5:2 situation, and we have 2 confirmed townies we can create, with a possible better outcome depending on roles.

So we need to organize a popcorn claiming list. We pick the scummiest person, and then make them claim, then, they tell someone else to claim, and we go down the list. This way, it makes counter claims a little harder to fake too.

I also think, for the immediate moment in the claim order, you shouldn't claim your ROLE, just whether you are a Vanilla Townie or a Power Role.

If we have any counter claiming, we can use that to try and catch people, but if we don't, we don't reveal what power is where to the scum.

Anyone disagree with this?

[/sp/oiler]

Never seen something like that suggested day 2 of a newbie game, and was the reason I started spectating this game lol

So, let's start with the non mechanical reasons.

We'd just flipped a townie, and the game was at risk of hitting apathy. Forcing a mass claim creates new info and makes people have to chew on it and make decisions. I felt that using the mass claim timing here would provide town +EV if done like this.

Now, mechanical stuff: Popcorn because it prevents scum from being able to do weird fake claim stuff, and only claiming "power role or no" because of the same.

The way this setup is built creates the possibility for duplication errors. In that a cop is fine, ubt there's no guarantee the jailkeeper that claims is real or not, because the cop can't know the setup. It could be a real jailkeeper, or it could be mafia making the guess from that position.

Having popcorn'd order makes it harder to plan the timing of a fake claim, and having hidden role names and only claiming to have power or not hides the setup they need to duplicate.

Had more than one person claimed a power role, we would have been making them power claim in reverse order of the order they claimed, and then evaluating what came from that.

In essence, doing it this way created the GUARANTEE of a few confirmed townies, or gave us a guilty and a good plan. In this scenario, my play wasn't super necessary since we had a cop with a guilty

but what happens if the cop just claims the guilty and then the jailkeeper claims later?

Cop claims it, we kill 1, and the fake jail keeper "clears" someone as not the person who killed the cop and then it's GG. It's game over. Then the JK no kills, claims a guilty and boom.

We lose to duplication error.

Doing it this way prevents ALL that gambit shit.

So I actually read back that conversation, and I think that the no kill creates a lose scenario that does not exist in her example given

I asked her what about the possibility of us being in column C, and so the scum team might be able to fake claim a pr during this. Her response was that by doing it popcorn style, it would be too risky for scum - because of the masons possibility.

But that risk is actually gone now. So if we are in column C, that could actually be kinda bad

[Lukewarm]

because there's confirmed to be no kill it also limits the number of possible setups, if there's a cop or tracker the investigative report is useful information that can narrow things down (or possibly just out a mafia, depending on their target). A doc save is unambiguously clear, a jailkeeper target is unfortunately ambiguous as to whether it was a save or a blocked kill but it at least gives something to discuss. I think at this point though any information is going to be useful given where we are an the amount of replacements and idleness we had to work through on Day 1.

My point is that if we are in column C, then the scum team knows that we are in exactly the Jailkeeper/VT column right now, and they can safely fake claim tracker.

So, if we do it, then we basically have to go in knowing that we can't really trust a tracker claim if there is a jailkeer.

But maybe, since we know that, it is not too much of a problem?

[Lukewarm]

Also, newbie 2093 ended, so I can say that Asphodelus replaced out because she wasn't feeling into her games. So I don't think her dropping from this game is necessarily AI, and I'm not sure her being underwhelming compared to her other games is necessarily AI. I still think worst's play from Day 1 is significantly scum-motivated.

I am not feeling the worst right now, and I think that we should kill Goodmorning.

I felt off about a lot of goodmorning posts day 1.

First thing I didn't like was the repeated busy work questions that they asked in post 40. Like three in a row.

Then I liked a lot of catboi's points about them.

I felt like they got overly defensive when dealing with syugar. Particuarly the "slanders and lies" line.

It also stood out to me that they kept doing a page number reference thing in their posts. Like, a lot.

Spoiler:

Page 5

Page 6 (and the top of page 7)

Page 8:

Page 9:

Page 13

Page 14

Page 15:

Through 17:

Through 19:

Through present

Seeing it, I really didn't like it on a gut level. Especially as it kept happening. I went back and checked their iso in their last couple games over night, and I did not see this in any of them. Like, not a single post doing it. Much less how many times it happened here.

I feel like I think it could be because they are self conscious, and feel the need to clarify their posts.

I'm holding off my vote until we decide if we are doing the popcorn thing.

[Lukewarm]

I'm feeling confused on what's happening right now.

I'm out of town, and don't have time to really try and figure it out. I should be back home tomorrow night though

[Lukewarm]

Okay gonna try to do this, but I'm phone posting riding in a car going cross country, so it should be tons of fun

[Lukewarm]

Actually... maybe not. The car just broke down :/

[Lukewarm]

Okay. Attempt 2 lol

[Lukewarm]

Like other people have just said, I read the worsts post about letting him talk before anyone hammers to be a pr soft.

That was why I made that post about it being antitown to pivot off of Tidus, I had reached that post in my catchup.

I thought tidus could be scum there, and was worried that if we pivoted away the worst seemed like a likely person to then be ran up.

[Lukewarm]

frankly I took worst to be softclaiming a PR which is why I backed off

When did you see the soft?

[Lukewarm]

Also, newbie 2093 ended, so I can say that Asphodelus replaced out because she wasn't feeling into her games. So I don't think her dropping from this game is necessarily AI, and I'm not sure her being underwhelming compared to her other games is necessarily AI. I still think worst's play from Day 1 is significantly scum-motivated.

Because you still came into this day phase trying to kill the worst.

Had you already seen it before? Were you pushing anyways because you didn't believe it?

If you didn't believe it at the end of d1, or at the start of d2, why did you drop it now?

[Lukewarm]

And also, why out it, unless you wanted to push him anyways?

It appears half the lobby saw it anyways, so I guess it doesn't matter, but still

[Lukewarm]

The other thing that doesn't make sense to me right now is the worst hinself.

[Lukewarm]

Bunch of quotes:

Spoiler:

VOTE: Lukewarm good counterwagon, thanks.

naw nevermind
VOTE: catboi

I'm not convinced by the Tidus townread. I'm not convinced by the rate in which your confidence grew. I'm not convinced that your reads are "tidus town, nothing else worth actioning" (though understand this might be partially tainted by your being absent). I don't buy that your response to being called out on TMI reads is "I would NEVER!!! do that as scum". Just not sitting right with me at all.

Would still probably do Tidus but I'll concede it's largely because he's ignored all of the actionable calls to play the game. Which isn't a reason I'd like to use in a newbie game. But deadline pressure is what it is.

To expand a little I guess.

- I think scum are incentivised to win credit by looking like they knew better than the d1 town. I think it's actually instinctive for scum to double down on unpopular but correct reads.
- I think having syugar and I uncertain on Tidus and pushing there because of deadline pressure creates a good opportunity to move against us on a tidus townflip.
- I think catboi not having pushed elsewhere is a more a symptom of not having time to do so, than a symptom of not having an agenda. I doubt that it's a reliable indicator of catboi's alignment.
- it's also just really hard to guess what wagon would or wouldn't gain traction in this gamestate!!

allowing that if Tidus is scum his partner would likely be trying to come out of this looking good. I'm not totally sure exactly what that means, and it's rich with wifom. Just, like, if we hit tidus today and he's red don't look for his partners in the obvious places. I'm also not really sure how many people out of 100 just immediately bus a newbie partner.

Walk me through this.

You saw me make this argument.
You voted me.
You then made the exact same argument that I made.
You then seemed to think I was the scummiest player at the start of day (based off suggesting I start the popcorn).

If you think I am scum, why are you not questioning the argument that I am making? If you think the argument is Good and Valid, why are you not reevaluating me based on through fact that we appear to be thinking about the game the same way?

[Lukewarm]

And then, it was weird seeing it once, but then you did it again

[Lukewarm]

Spoiler:

In favour of mass claim, popcorn is fine, suggest Luke goes first

Also, newbie 2093 ended, so I can say that Asphodelus replaced out because she wasn't feeling into her games. So I don't think her dropping from this game is necessarily AI, and I'm not sure her being underwhelming compared to her other games is necessarily AI. I still think worst's play from Day 1 is significantly scum-motivated.

I am not feeling the worst right now, and I think that we should kill Goodmorning.

I felt off about a lot of goodmorning posts day 1.

First thing I didn't like was the repeated busy work questions that they asked in post 40. Like three in a row.

Then I liked a lot of catboi's points about them.

I felt like they got overly defensive when dealing with syugar. Particuarly the "slanders and lies" line.

It also stood out to me that they kept doing a page number reference thing in their posts. Like, a lot.

Spoiler:

Page 5

Page 6 (and the top of page 7)

Page 8:

Page 9:

Page 13

Page 14

Page 15:

Through 17:

Through 19:

Through present

Seeing it, I really didn't like it on a gut level. Especially as it kept happening. I went back and checked their iso in their last couple games over night, and I did not see this in any of them. Like, not a single post doing it. Much less how many times it happened here.

I feel like I think it could be because they are self conscious, and feel the need to clarify their posts.

I'm holding off my vote until we decide if we are doing the popcorn thing.

i have several concerns & like where this is going

VOTE: goodmorning

I'm also p lost and don't think I'm goanna have a comfortable solve until we have some more flips! I think gm wagon has probably been waiting to happen for a while and I was a reason it didn't and I feel dumb about it so seeing where this goes.

Luke vote is good and I stared into my soul for a long moment wondering whether to join but I like GM better

If you think I'm scummy, why are you not questioning the direction I am trying to lead the thread?
And if you think i am leading the thread in a good direction, why are you not reevaluating me based on the fact that we seem to, repeatedly now, viewed the game the same way?

[Lukewarm]

Spoiler:

In favour of mass claim, popcorn is fine, suggest Luke goes first

Also, newbie 2093 ended, so I can say that Asphodelus replaced out because she wasn't feeling into her games. So I don't think her dropping from this game is necessarily AI, and I'm not sure her being underwhelming compared to her other games is necessarily AI. I still think worst's play from Day 1 is significantly scum-motivated.

I am not feeling the worst right now, and I think that we should kill Goodmorning.

I felt off about a lot of goodmorning posts day 1.

First thing I didn't like was the repeated busy work questions that they asked in post 40. Like three in a row.

Then I liked a lot of catboi's points about them.

I felt like they got overly defensive when dealing with syugar. Particuarly the "slanders and lies" line.

It also stood out to me that they kept doing a page number reference thing in their posts. Like, a lot.

Spoiler:

Page 5

Page 6 (and the top of page 7)

Page 8:

Page 9:

Page 13

Page 14

Page 15:

Through 17:

Through 19:

Through present

[/spoi.ler]

Seeing it, I really didn't like it on a gut level. Especially as it kept happening. I went back and checked their iso in their last couple games over night, and I did not see this in any of them. Like, not a single post doing it. Much less how many times it happened here.

I feel like I think it could be because they are self conscious, and feel the need to clarify their posts.

I'm holding off my vote until we decide if we are doing the popcorn thing.

i have several concerns & like where this is going

VOTE: goodmorning

I'm also p lost and don't think I'm goanna have a comfortable solve until we have some more flips! I think gm wagon has probably been waiting to happen for a while and I was a reason it didn't and I feel dumb about it so seeing where this goes.

Luke vote is good and I stared into my soul for a long moment wondering whether to join but I like GM better

If you think I'm scummy, why are you not questioning the direction I am trying to lead the thread?
And if you think i am leading the thread in a good direction, why are you not reevaluating me based on the fact that we seem to, repeatedly now, viewed the game the same way?

[Lukewarm]

I think the only other thing for me to address is @Luke:
1. You clearly haven't been actually reading my posts if you're bringing "lies and slander" back up again.
2. What makes you think those were "busywork" questions instead of, I don't know, actual questions?
3. You wouldn't have noticed that over my "last couple games", since it's usually something I do when I get behind/replace in to games. My last game i was one of the more prolific posters, and the games before that were when I was in the process of site flaking 6 years ago and did not give a single shit about staying informed.

Anyway, more reads stuff later when I can be bothered but suffice it to say catboi may actually be Town. When I reread the game just for content and not tone, there was nothing in his posts to dislike. Also I figured out what I didn't like about Cat using the same words as me - mirroring can be used to buddy (& is the most common method of irl buddying, intentional and otherwise). Whether that means anything here is still undecided.

Wow, there are exactly 0 scummy things about my wagon. Completely normal and very cool, nothing suspect whatsoever.

This game has been so exhausting and unfun. Frankly I'm just about ready to die.

VOTE: worst

I still think T02 is Town and I understand where catboi is coming from already even if it's a very misguided place. worst's hop onto my wagon is l a z y in a way that feels like a scumclaim.

But, y'know, go ahead and run me up, it'll be a great time.

And good morning, why are you calling the wagon scummy, but only calling 1 person suspicious for it?

And why are you only evaluating the people who actively voted, and not the other people who scum read you?

Like, I was the one who said we should elim you, but I'm not on your list of people you needed to sort whether I was scum angling for your miselim?

I think Bella also scum reads you (not gonna double check this at the moment)

[Lukewarm]

I have a poe of catboi, gm, the worst, and t02 and that has too many names in it, especially since i appear to be in multiple people poes, so that means we have too many miselim options in the player list.

I need the townies in that group to come town it up.

---

I didn't grab stuff on T02, but I was largely uninspired by their day 1, and they seemed to promise more going into day 2 because irl stuff was happening day 1, and it simply hasn't happened. So far they have voiced a scum read on gm, and that was it.

[Lukewarm]

frankly I took worst to be softclaiming a PR which is why I backed off

When did you see the soft?

I took wanting you to claim first earlier in the phase as some sort of implication on his part

Oh, I took that to be him picking up from where he voted me near the end of the day.

You thought he was hinting at some kind of guilty on me, and in response you voted good morning?

[Lukewarm]

Hmmm. I am back to thinking maybe we should pr/vt popcorn claim

[Lukewarm]

I'm pretty sure you've consistently misread me in gamesgoing way way back to when you first played with me. And now KTaNE is over, so we can talk about that - you missed on me badly in that game. mea culpa, I was way too overconfident on you and it probably threw things off, but I have tried to adjust accordingly and give you space this game. And to see you come in and walk right into completely terrible reasoning for suspecting me again on Day 1 - what's up with that? What are you doing here? Have you taken away nothing?

My take away from that game was that town!catboi can and will talk about an uncertain scum read in absolute terms, and that I should anticipate and adjust for that.

I also saw that if you start scum reading me, I should try to talk to you more, and actually ask you questions because you didn't ever say why you thought I was scum (I guess you were waiting for me to ask).

Neither one of those things are applicable to this game.

What do you think I should be seeing here to town read you for?

[Lukewarm]

I will say that I am not really even scum reading you this game. At least nothing like in ktane.

More just, I'm Not Town Reading you. So you are sitting in my poe still

[Lukewarm]

Real talk, sitting here trying to think why you are town this game.

The best reason is that in the scum game i played against you (fgo) you were doing a lot more to control the game, and you don't seem to be doing that much this game.

[Lukewarm]

Maybe control is the wrong word. You were a Bigger Prescence that game then here, if that makes sense.

You were fairly central to the way I though of the dynamics of that game.

[Lukewarm]

Do you thibk i should I be Town reading you in games where you are a smaller presence?

[Lukewarm]

I had been under the impression you had been suspicious of me because of the way I defended Tidus, something that irked me a great deal. If that's no longer the case, okay, although I am wondering what made you drop that read.

I was suspicious of it at first. When I see something I find suspicious, sometimes it's all I can see at the time, But i stopped feeling it so strongly over time. Partially because e of the way you doubled down on it actually, partially Syugar's posting about it.


Syugar made me second guess if you would even do it as scum, and the way you doubled down made me second guess if you would do it as town. So combined, I kinda dropped it.

[Lukewarm]

I was less interested in you not town reading me for being in response to seeing that. That is more like, the inverse of my main thought.

It was surprising to see you appear to follow my lead immediately after making a post that, at least to me, seemed like you were saying I was the scummiest person in the playerlist. And I mean immediately.

You voted me in 609. Then go along with exactly what I had just said in the immediate next post, 610.

Although, I probably would not have even spotted the thing this day phase with GM, if I hadn't already noticed the thing from Day 1.

[Lukewarm]

I didn't townread either of you or catboi. I wasn't really thinking about you two as a scumteam just wanted to amplify the pressure on catboi a little..

I feel like you are absolutely not understanding my point... I can't tell if I am doing a bad job putting my thought into words, or if you are doing this on purpose :/

My point doesn't have to do with teams. It is a lack of suspicion of the things that I am doing, despite making moves like I am one of your stronger scum reads.

[Lukewarm]

I've been thinking about my conversation with catboi today, and I think he is just town here.

[Lukewarm]

@Cat.jpg

If gm is maf then Luke is his partner. If the worst is maf then catboi is.

This feels like you pulled names out of a hat. What makes you say I would be partnered with gm, and what makes you say catboi would be partnered with the worst?

And what makes you say that other people couldn't be?

I know I'm never partnered with gm, but I also don't see catboi+the worst. Not with the way that the worst tried to pivot us off of tidus and on to catboi at the end of the day. The way he mirrored my own argument meant that from his pov, i would have been likely to follow him.

Me and the worst both shifting from tidus->catboi would have done major damage to the tidus wagon, and gm was scum reading catboi as well. That move could have promptly made catboi a leading wagon near the end of the day.

[Lukewarm]

I am back to thinking that we should do the popcorn mass claim.

I don't like that literally everyone has seen or talked about a pr soft from the worst, but he completely ignored it, and is not even committed to not claiming a VT later down the line if he is scum.

I think that the best way to run it would be for an utr to pick the first person to claim. They should not claim a role, just "im a pr" or "im a vt" And then that person picks the next person to popcorn.

We should not actually claim what the roles are (unless we get too many pr claims), so that if we have an invest and a protective, the protective knows where to protect, but the scum won't know which is which and could still miss their next shot

[Lukewarm]

I think that Bella is the most town read slot, so maybe they would pick who to start us off?

[Lukewarm]

You said why you disagree with me thinking they are not partnered, but you didn't answer why you think that they are partnered.

[Lukewarm]

This feels like you pulled names out of a hat. What makes you say I would be partnered with gm, and what makes you say catboi would be partnered with the worst?

And what makes you say that other people couldn't be?

[Lukewarm]

...yeah, partners is so not our problem right now.im no good at numbers, is it worth just no liming?

Just because you don't understand something does not make it scum driven.

I already linked to a game where town!lld lead the day 2 mass claim, and town!catboi was in that game and agreed. I can link another game where I was town and advocated for us to day a day 2 mass claim.

You are also calling catboi town in this very post, and he was the one who suggested the mass claim to begin with...

Doing the mass claim gives us info, when we are feeling lost. It also makes it harder for scum to fake claim, because they have to already decide if they are fake claiming, and how is fake claiming.

By doing the pr/vt claim (and not the role), it also makes it scary for the scum, because if there are 3 pr claims, they don't know which pr they even need to fake claim to make sense with the townies. If they end up claiming something that can never go with either of the other prs, then they are immediately outed. And even if it does match with one of the townie, scum fake claiming at this stage means that that scum does not make it to ELO. Because we kill the scummiest of the two players who are claimed roles that cannot coexist. If it kills scum, great. If it kills town, then we have manufactured a guilty on that other player.

It gives us actionable info now, and it limits scum's movements going forward.

[Lukewarm]

they have to already decide if they are fake claiming, and how is fake claiming.

and who* is fake claiming

[Lukewarm]

Also, mass claiming is not always good. It is specifically good when you walk into day 2, and no scum have been killed and no prs have been killed. Which, is the situation that we are in.

But, like. For future games, keep that in mind.

[Lukewarm]

I think you may have missed saying something you meant to say in the above post, or did you accidentally quote 686 there?

It was mainly to pull attention to the way that you interacted with me scum reading you. You didn't seem to think its scummy for me to scum reading you either.

[Lukewarm]

We can still stop it for now. I think most people assumed the worst would claim vt after they ignored the talk about them soft claiming.

I didn't

[Lukewarm]

VOTE: The Worst

I went back through his iso, and I am having a hard time seeing the worst plays from the pov of a VT.

His "anyone is better then me" approach to the game, and the post about not hammering him without a claim made me feel like he had to be a pr or scum, and apparently he is not a PR. I don't think that you accidentally get half the lobby to think that you are a PR, so I think that it was deliberate to try and get through day 1.

---

In general all of his reads/votes look like they are chosen just based on what looks like it will go through. Here are his votes in, reverse order:

1) Goodmorning

He votes good morning in 688. this comes immediately after I suggested we push GM and catboi votes. This is a 180 of his read of GM.

The most recent post he made about goodmorning prior to that was 407, where he was town reading them (and has been for a while. expressed a town read in 331, 322)

Spoiler: every post about gm prior to his vote there

I think I need to read some ISO's but right now tentative TRs on Goldfish, Goodmorning, and Notajumble (though i would like them to post some more)

pretty keen to hear more on why you townread any of these 3? I can see one of them kinda

I think I need to read some ISO's but right now tentative TRs on Goldfish, Goodmorning, and Notajumble (though i would like them to post some more)

to elaborate, Goldfish seems town to me due to how little she has posted, as town and mafia she usually posts a lot so its odd in general she isnt posting as much but I do feel its a town thing because as mafia she would probably be trying control the game a bit more and subtly buddying people.

goodmorning combatively pointing out how being combative isnt a town tell seems townie though might just be a play. Also something about their wallposting feels towny

With NotAJumble honestly i just have a vague town vibe so far.

So I know this isnt very solid but oh well.

what are you seeing in goodmorning which makes you think their motivation is to find town and not to undermine people accurately townreading each other? There's a dissonance between "I'd expect goldfish to be trying to steer this game" and "goodmorning is town for the way they're steering this game" - I'm not sure I see why you think the way goodmorning is tackling this game is towny?

I also kinda like goodmorning btw I'm just left a bit confused by your townread there

NAJON + goldfish reads are fine

the worst
Bellaphant
syugar
goodmorning probably?
catboi - town or cat.jpeg partner if powering thru
Takemi
Goldfish, cat.jpeg has one and I think it's cat.jpeg
tidus slot is probably just scum

maybe cat.jpeg and goldfish finding each other so quickly is a sign that there's some intangible towny energy from cat which i'm just not picking up. i also keep seeing posts from cat and thinking "huh wow i townread that" and then realising they were goodmorning posts..

i have several concerns & like where this is going

VOTE: goodmorning

He does not give any reason for why his read changed. Bella pressed him for a reason for the swap, and this was the only reason I have been able to find

I understand where catboi is coming from already even if it's a very misguided place.

Also, I thought I was your top scumread yesterday given you did nothing but votepark me yesterday? And I haven't even explained my vote?

this really concerned me as well. the "oh I reread catboi and other than tone all of his content seems fine~!!" isn't really consistent with a read re-evaluation from someone who voteparked you for the entirety of d1.

this one

I'm also holistically concerned that GM's entire read trajectory this phase is "my wagon is suspicious, let's vote the lowest hanging fruit from it" but that's hardly ground breaking.

EXCEPT, the thing he is calling scummy is something that happened after he voted, so it simply cannot be the reason he vote there.

2) Tidus

3) Catboi

Votes in post 610.

The worst was scum reading catboi for a while before this one. However, the vote did not come until it looked like he might have support. It comes 1 page after I called catboi scum. And, it also appears that his read completely dropped once more people started town reading catboi.

4)Me

Votes in 609. The most recent vote in the game before that was T02 voting me in 592. And, like catboi, this read has completely dropped. However, it seems like it dropped in response to me pushing him, and him not feeling like he had a good rebuttal (781)

Like it really looks like he saw someone vote me, so he voted me. Then he saw me call catboi scum, so he voted catboi. Then he saw catboi vote GM, he voted good morning.

[Lukewarm]

I think that that is E-1

[Lukewarm]

I think that that is E-1

Just double checked, it is.

[Lukewarm]

Oh nice, pr info should hopefully just be enough to win now.

I agree with the popcorn method still, and I would like gm to start

[Lukewarm]

While we're waiting for gm to answer, I'd like to point out that Bella, Syugar, Luke and Catboi all voted for tidus and worst and I'm confident both mafs are among those 4.

While we're waiting for gm to answer, I'd like to point out that I don't like this post.

[Lukewarm]

whats the advantage to popcorning as opposed to claiming instantly

Its supposed to make it harder to counter claim, because they don't know who they would be forced to 1v1. Or if they don't know exactly what game we are in (1A vs 2A or 2B vs 3B) they might not know what to claim, but if they can sit until someone else claims a PR, then they would have a better idea.

[Lukewarm]

@Luke

Why don't like you like my post?

You just said that you are confident that both scum are in a list of players that is exactly me + my town reads lmao.

It does not look like good reasoning either, since in my experience scum try to be off miselim wagons if at all possible - or at the very least do a 1 on 1 off kinda thing.

The idea of just writing you or GM off as town just because you were not on the wagons seems silly.

[Lukewarm]

It also strips context off of the votes. Like the fact that catboi opposed the tidus wagon, but compromised because we were approaching deadline.

[Lukewarm]

And like, it is also the fact that it is coming from you - someone suspicious, and are also not in the list of people.

If the scum team was something like T02+GM or T02+cat.jpeg, you would absolutely need to angle into getting elims inside that list. So your position in reference to the suggestion is not great

[Lukewarm]

Not shit I'm writing myself off, I know I'm town. gm however I'm not writing off, I think its possible that he's maf. The only person i'm confident is town is cat.jpeg

At no point was I insinuating that you should be considering yourself as mafia, and I feel like you have to know that.

I don't understand what this means. What list? What position? What suggestion? Explain please.
I'll just say this, T02+cat.jpeg is the worst scumread I have ever read the game so far.

The list... that you presented... that started this conversation...

Bella, Syugar, Luke and Catboi all voted for tidus and worst and I'm confident both mafs are among those 4.

The inverse of this post says "I (T02), Goodmorning, and Cat.jpeg are all town because we did not vote for both Tidus and The Worst, and I think that that is
1) A bad reason to write people off as town, and
2) That a scum team of you+GM or a scum team of you+cat.jpeg would benefit from convincing people of this.

----

The only person i'm confident is town is cat.jpeg

The fact that cat.jpeg is your only town read is surprising unless it is coming from your PR claim?

[Lukewarm]

I am A VT.

Getting the vt/pr part out of the way is probably good. Then just have the prs claim actual roles in order of scummiest -> towniest.

[Lukewarm]

The inverse of this post says "I (T02), Goodmorning, and Cat.jpeg are all town because we did not vote for both Tidus and The Worst"

And it especially stood out because this is basically the list of people I was considering eliminating this Day.

Goodmorning=T02>>>>Cat.jpeg > The rest

[Lukewarm]

the 4 people I pointed to are all conviently townreads

Also, what do you mean that the list of names that you made, were "conveniently" town reads?

[Lukewarm]

You literally said "The idea of just writing YOU or GM off as town just because you were not on the wagons seems silly."
Are you talking about other people writing me off? Because your wording is confusing.

*I* am not going to write yall off as town because you were not on the wagon, and I don't think that other people should either.

Meaning your point looked bad and was unpersuasive to me - and that I don't think that other people should be swayed either.

I am not realizing that you were taking every line I said to be me saying why it made you scum. No. At first, I engaged with the idea that you presented. So, like some of those posts are that.

I then added that scum!T02 would possibly need to take this angle with any shot at it.

[Lukewarm]

Like, both of these posts are distantly engaging with the idea - without reference to your alignment.

Spoiler:

@Luke

Why don't like you like my post?

You just said that you are confident that both scum are in a list of players that is exactly me + my town reads lmao.

It does not look like good reasoning either, since in my experience scum try to be off miselim wagons if at all possible - or at the very least do a 1 on 1 off kinda thing.

The idea of just writing you or GM off as town just because you were not on the wagons seems silly.

It also strips context off of the votes. Like the fact that catboi opposed the tidus wagon, but compromised because we were approaching deadline.

[Lukewarm]

And then, yeah. I pivoted into "why is To2 making a bad argument here?"

I remembered you scum reading goodmorning yesterDay, and suddenly you are making a bad argument that results in you "confident" that goodmorning it town.

Yes. Yes. I know you walked that back saying that GM could be scum, but the inverse of you saying that you were confident in both scum being in the list of 4 you presented is that you are confident that the other players are town.

If you are scum with either goodmorning or cat.jpeg, you absolutely need us to not start killing in the order Goodmorning->you->cat.jpeg (which is where I literally am with my reads) and it looked like you were trying to stop that course of action.

So yes, I can see the motivation behind the bad argument.

[Lukewarm]

My argument isn't bad. In the absence of other proof, voting data is one of the best tools we have to find scum.

I never said that looking at voting data is bad. I said that looking at the votes this game, and concluding that both scum have to be in the people who were on both wagons were bad.

You're completely wrong. If you're not scumreading someone that doesn't mean you're townreading them. This feels really manipulative.

You didn't say that. you said you were "confident both mafs are among those 4."

Not that you were suspicious of them. Not that you think that there is at least 1 scum is there. That you are confident that BOTH mafs are among those 4. And now you are arguing that that is not what you believe, while also defending the statement simultaneously.

So, do you think that both mafia are in that 4 or do you think that GM should be in consideration for elimination right now?

(if you are considering GM here, doesn't that inherently make your earlier post flawed/wrong?)

It really looks like you are actively trying to insure that we don't vote Goodmorning, while avoiding committing to a Goodmorning town read.


-----

Like, what did you expect your earlier post to do? Did you expect us to ignore it? Or were you advocating that we should be killing one of the 4 people you named? Were you just making a post to look like you were doing something?

Like, from my pov, it sure looked like you were angling for us to kill one of those 4 people - should I not then look at who that could be shielding? Should I not be suspicious to see you go from voting GM yesterday, to angling us away from them without even committing to calling them town here?

[Lukewarm]

@Cat.jpg

If gm is maf then Luke is his partner. If the worst is maf then catboi is.

After rereading ISOs what I said doesn't make as much sense as I thought.
This game is too hard. Everytime I try to solve it my brain fries.

And it looks exactly like what you did yesterday, which was make a claim, and the moment I try to dig into your logic and reads, you immediately walk the claim back.

"Why are these people paired?" -- "Nevermind"

"Why are you excluding Goodmorning from your scum pile?" -- "I'm not doing that"

---

It sure looks like you are just making statements to look like you are trying to solve the game, but you don't actually believe the things that you are saying

[Lukewarm]

I think at least T02's play this game makes significantly more sense in light of the claim. I need to look at the game again with fresh eyes, hopefully cat.jpeg shows up sonish so we can have some clarity.

In what way?

He presumably had more information then the rest of us day2, but I don't see any sign of that from the way he played

[Lukewarm]

@Cat.jpg

If gm is maf then Luke is his partner. If the worst is maf then catboi is.

After rereading ISOs what I said doesn't make as much sense as I thought.
This game is too hard. Everytime I try to solve it my brain fries.

And it looks exactly like what you did yesterday, which was make a claim, and the moment I try to dig into your logic and reads, you immediately walk the claim back.

"Why are these people paired?" -- "Nevermind"

"Why are you excluding Goodmorning from your scum pile?" -- "I'm not doing that"

---

It sure looks like you are just making statements to look like you are trying to solve the game, but you don't actually believe the things that you are saying

luke. unless take gets counterclaimed by exactly cat.jpeg, he's almost certainly town, because everyone else has claimed VT. You need to adjust your worldview.

Oh.

I thought there were a couple more people who needed to claim still.

[Lukewarm]

g a townread for me.

When did you start townreading gm tho? Like, part of the reason your comment stood out to me is because I thought you were scum reading gm before that.

Even looking back, you voted gm day 2

[Lukewarm]

I think I should just wait for the cat.jpeg claim and for the role info to be outed before I try to solve any more

[Lukewarm]

I did.

I read that as "so far been " and not " far from being"

[Lukewarm]

my bad

[Lukewarm]

I have an idea of what might be going on but will wait to see.

I'm glad one of us does lol

[Lukewarm]

I am indeed the jailkeeper.
My logic for choosing my targets was "If I was maf who would I want to kill?" so choose Syugar N1 and Bella N2.

Hmm. I wonder who missed / caught the "pr soft" from the worst day 1, if the scum team decided to kill syugar.

[Lukewarm]

Bella and syugar both pointed out the day 1 post as a pr soft.

T02/cat.jpeg/catboi/goodmorning all actively said that they didn't see it.

[Lukewarm]

I think we just kill goodmorning here

VOTE: goodmorning

[Lukewarm]

I think that a goodmorning + cat.jpeg team is what makes the most sense to me

[Lukewarm]

Cat is looking more townish again I think. 926 and the posts leading up to it look like Town happy with a solve rather than Scum pointing it out.

What does this even mean?

Also I want to pint out mafia would have known we had just one pr and it was a jailkeeper from the start of day 2 because they knew we were in the C column and there was a protective role. Idk if that helps with anything but im glad we didnt claim yesterday.

What makes this "Town happy with a solve" vs "scum pointing it out?"

Town and scum would both know it at the point that they made that post. Its not even a solve

[Lukewarm]

An all town wagon can happen in one day but two days with all town wagons is not only unlikely but literally impossible this game. The only people not on day 2's wagon are me and cat.jpeg and we can't be a maf pair.

One maf is guaranteed to be on worst's wagon yesterday and the second maf is either on the worst's wagon too or he's cat.jpeg.

This is correct. One mafia is guaranteed to be on the worst's wagon atp (and always from your pov).

But its the next step that I found fault in. In order for your original list of 4 to be correct, it would mean that NEITHER scum tried to be off of EITHER wagon - which that feels like a jump.

Like, yes. It is possible. But I don't find it particularly more likely then the idea that at least 1 scum was trying to stay off at least 1 miselim wagon.

So I don't think that it is a good conclusion to draw from the votes.

[Lukewarm]

I found something interesting while skimming through the thread. At the end of day 1 652, gm miscounted the votes and dropped what he thought was the hammer vote on tidus(Tidus already got hammered at the time)
This means that 5 of the 6 uncleared players are involved in both miselim wagons.

So you agree that looking at the final vote counts and arbitrarily deciding that both scum must be in the over lap was not a rock solid way to lock in the scum team. Glad we are on the same page.

(will drop this now lol)

[Lukewarm]

Also with the knowledge that maf knew what the setup was since day 2, it makes catboi's mass claim proposal a lot more suspicious.
If the mass claim went through, one of the mafs could have claimed tracker, I die N2 and maf easily gets a miselim D3 and wins.

VOTE: catboi

I am finding it really hard to look at my day 2 interactions with catboi (starting at post 755) coming from scum!boi.

I don't think that scum catboi approaches me this way. I was not particularly town read, so people are not following me - and he just happened to exist on a list of

5 names

of people in my PoE, and I was not pushing him at the time. This is not a threat to scum!catboi that he needs to deal with, and getting me to town read him is likely not a top priority.

It reads more like proper frustration at getting incorrectly scum read by me once again.

I also don't think that he then questions me when I say that my scum read softened.

And finally, I buy 762

[Lukewarm]

there's probably maybe some merit to looking back at day 2 to see if there was anyone who seemed to be awkwardly townreading syugar if they knew a nightkill on him had been stopped

So, I was thinking, and it might actually be better to look back to see if there is someone who is playing like they think that there might be a guilty out on them. Like they were worried that they had been targeted not syugar since they would know that it was a jk not a doc that stopped the kill.

[Lukewarm]

JK-T02 means I'm mostly lost again but for now

VOTE: syugar

928 feels like trying to preempt people from scumreading his lack of content D2. I kind of set him aside as a townread and stopped caring but now I'll be going back and rereading his ISO.

Cat is looking more townish again I think. 926 and the posts leading up to it look like Town happy with a solve rather than Scum pointing it out.

Kinda sad we cant get any definite info from this but its also very fun. I think the fact that whoever you jailed both days was either mafia or the nk should be enough for us to figure it out.
Can i make a guess that at least one of the days Bella was jailed?

They both walked into this day phase, trying to push for scum reads on the jk targets.

Cat.jpeg even preempts the jk target on Bella, trying to set up the idea that it was a kill stop there.

[Lukewarm]

Spoiler: Bella

@mod,.vla until monday

The worsts reads seem to be 'elim anything that isn't me'. I've not played with them much, but I don't recognize this kind of survivalist/ opportunist vibe. I'd like to see them really take ownership of a case, even if to understand their thought process.

@ the worst, you've votes everyone living apart from me, syugar and t02. You've just said you maybe town read catjpeg and catboi, but phrased in a really wooly way.
You also ignored the rest of my post. That's both you and catboi who have blatantly misrepped me now.

Spoiler: cat.jpeg

If both prs claim neither of them will definitely die (because we have a protective role) unless we have a mafia roleblocker which is a 2/5 chance. If there isn’t a roleblocker then I think its still unlikely

doctor

/

jailkeeper

will save the nk and it will be wifom thing. Bit better chance if it’s a

jailkeeper

though but still not good odds. I think the prs should claim tmr. If one of the prs dies sure we miss out on a potential conf town that they could of told us of, but on day 3 we can just look at their biggest townread from today. As for if a

jailkeeper

dies well yea their info will be lost.

About

jailkeeper

, obviously a conf mafia is more useful than a conf town but is a 'either mafia or nightkill' more useful than a conf town? im not sure but if we had a

jailkeeper

they probably picked someone with the intention of protecting them or stopping them from killing so they likely have an opinion about whether their target is town or not. I'm opposed to mass claim today unless we have a

jailkeeper

with somebody they think is scum (or a different role with a guilty but obviously you should always claim if ur that). If thats the case then the

jailkeeper

should claim then we should start popcorning after that. I don't think its good to have only one of the prs claiming, it should be all or none based off of what happened in my last game where scum claimed tracker, a role that was compatible with both real prs so neither counterclaimed. Anyway if none of the prs claim we can just assume they only have conf towns. (i guess if somebody had a conf townread on the worst or GM or something that would be useful too, up to you if you want to claim on that)

Also I figured out what I didn't like about Cat using the same words as me - mirroring can be used to buddy (& is the most common method of irl buddying, intentional and otherwise). Whether that means anything here is still undecided.

I am also mirroring your pfp. Anyway I had no idea you used 'I don't love' so much until I checked your iso, it was completely subconscious. My scheming is no where near the purposefully copying mannerisms level yet. Also hate to say it but you townreading me probably wouldnt help me too much this game.

Spoiler: catboi

No deaths is good-ish. Given how stalled out things were yesterday, I was thinking that if no PRs died during the night we'd have people claim to narrow down the pool of suspects. Thoughts? (taking a page from LLD with this strategy)

Assuming it wasn't an intentional no-kill (highly unlikely), leaves the following as possible setups:

Column A & Row 1: Mafia Roleblocker, Mafia Goon, Town Cop, Town Doctor, Vanilla Townie x 5
Column A & Row 2: Mafia Roleblocker, Mafia Goon, Town Jailkeeper, Town Tracker, Vanilla Townie x 5

Column A & Row 3: Mafia Roleblocker, Mafia Goon, Town Mason x2, Vanilla Townie x 5

Column B & Row 1: Mafia Rolecop, Mafia Goon, Town Tracker, Town Friendly Neighbor, Vanilla Townie x 5

Column B & Row 2: Mafia Rolecop, Mafia Goon, Town Jailkeeper, Town Friendly Neighbor, Vanilla Townie x 5
Column B & Row 3: Mafia Rolecop, Mafia Goon, Town Tracker, Town Doctor, Vanilla Townie x 5

Column C & Row 1: Mafia Goon x 2, Town Cop, Vanilla Townie x 6

Column C & Row 2: Mafia Goon x 2, Town Jailkeeper, Vanilla Townie x 6

Column C & Row 3: Mafia Goon x 2, Town Mason x2, Vanilla Townie x 5

Also, newbie 2093 ended, so I can say that Asphodelus replaced out because she wasn't feeling into her games. So I don't think her dropping from this game is necessarily AI, and I'm not sure her being underwhelming compared to her other games is necessarily AI. I still think worst's play from Day 1 is significantly scum-motivated.

because there's confirmed to be no kill it also limits the number of possible setups, if there's a cop or tracker the investigative report is useful information that can narrow things down (or possibly just out a mafia, depending on their target). A doc save is unambiguously clear, a jailkeeper target is unfortunately ambiguous as to whether it was a save or a blocked kill but it at least gives something to discuss. I think at this point though any information is going to be useful given where we are an the amount of replacements and idleness we had to work through on Day 1.

Spoiler: goodmorning

Massclaiming makes no sense with either 8 or 7 alive. Trying to hamstring your PRs at this stage of the game in a semiopen is not correct and I will fight anyone who thinks it is. (Even LLD, and I really like LLD!)

Now, if this were an Open, it probably would be correct, but this is not an Open.

Also: in the specific Tracker scenario mentioned, where a JK claims, it would make more sense for the Tracker to claim VT so that they can continue to investigate; otherwise they are completely useless as they'd likely eat the JK N2 (i.e., not being able to do their job) and very possibly become a miselim candidate afterwards, since they wouldn't even have "innocent child" status by way of the massclaim.

I think the only other thing for me to address is @Luke:
1. You clearly haven't been actually reading my posts if you're bringing "lies and slander" back up again.
2. What makes you think those were "busywork" questions instead of, I don't know, actual questions?
3. You wouldn't have noticed that over my "last couple games", since it's usually something I do when I get behind/replace in to games. My last game i was one of the more prolific posters, and the games before that were when I was in the process of site flaking 6 years ago and did not give a single shit about staying informed.

Anyway, more reads stuff later when I can be bothered but suffice it to say catboi may actually be Town. When I reread the game just for content and not tone, there was nothing in his posts to dislike.

Also I figured out what I didn't like about Cat using the same words as me - mirroring can be used to buddy (& is the most common method of irl buddying, intentional and otherwise). Whether that means anything here is still undecided.

Spoiler: syugar

No deaths is good-ish. Given how stalled out things were yesterday, I was thinking that if no PRs died during the night we'd have people claim to narrow down the pool of suspects. Thoughts? (taking a page from LLD with this strategy)

I am not opposed to this, i dont think? LLD convinced me that day 2 popcorn pr claims is good in general a while back - but I have not thought a out whether a lack of kill affects that at all.

nope not with 8 alive

slank cover til tomorrow, dont know what to say

theres no massing with 8 people it makes sense with 7 imo

in that sense it sucks no one died

catboi, t02, bella i believe to be town, squabbling over who else gets elim i dont particularly care, still

Because we opened the day up by immediately talking about mass claiming or not, I feel like its odd looking at everyone's entrances, because it seems to basically boil down to post on whether they agree or disagree with the mass claim for the most part - except for bella who was vla then skipped to talking about the worst.

It looks like me and catboi were pro massclaim, and everyone else was anti. That does mean that as a minimum one scum was against the mass claim, and I think that actually makes sense given the worry that there might be a floating guilty out there on them. This is another reason to think catboi is town here.

I think that the scum team would hope that the jk could be night killed without outing their target - which coincidentally, is something that cat.jpeg said explicitly "As for if a jailkeeper dies well yea their info will be lost."

I also noticed that cat.jpeg spent a lot of time talking explicitly about the jailkeeper possibility. Like says doc exactly once as part of a "doctor/jailkeeper" and then proceeds to talk about jailkeeper for the rest of the post.

Goodmorning on the other hand spent a lot of time talking about a tracker + JK combo, which I feel like could be setting up for a fake claim down the line.

I also highlighted goodmorning's comment about cat.jpeg, which feels awkward? And also surprising that goodmorning is now walking into day 3 with a cat.jpeg town read.

I am feeling a lot better about the gm+cat.jpeg solve atm. They both walked into day 2 against the mass claim, because they were worried about a guilty on one of them. Goodmorning's comment also looks like an awkward attemt to distance from cat.jpeg - which would make sense if GM is worried about having a guilty on them.

----

Something else I noticed toDay was this line

[Lukewarm]

editing fail. I grabbed the quotes for 984, and then forgot to copy/paste into the post I was working on lol

So, those should be in the opposite order lol

[Lukewarm]

Spoiler: Bella

@mod,.vla until monday

The worsts reads seem to be 'elim anything that isn't me'. I've not played with them much, but I don't recognize this kind of survivalist/ opportunist vibe. I'd like to see them really take ownership of a case, even if to understand their thought process.

@ the worst, you've votes everyone living apart from me, syugar and t02. You've just said you maybe town read catjpeg and catboi, but phrased in a really wooly way.
You also ignored the rest of my post. That's both you and catboi who have blatantly misrepped me now.

Spoiler: cat.jpeg

If both prs claim neither of them will definitely die (because we have a protective role) unless we have a mafia roleblocker which is a 2/5 chance. If there isn’t a roleblocker then I think its still unlikely

doctor

/

jailkeeper

will save the nk and it will be wifom thing. Bit better chance if it’s a

jailkeeper

though but still not good odds. I think the prs should claim tmr. If one of the prs dies sure we miss out on a potential conf town that they could of told us of, but on day 3 we can just look at their biggest townread from today. As for if a

jailkeeper

dies well yea their info will be lost.

About

jailkeeper

, obviously a conf mafia is more useful than a conf town but is a 'either mafia or nightkill' more useful than a conf town? im not sure but if we had a

jailkeeper

they probably picked someone with the intention of protecting them or stopping them from killing so they likely have an opinion about whether their target is town or not. I'm opposed to mass claim today unless we have a

jailkeeper

with somebody they think is scum (or a different role with a guilty but obviously you should always claim if ur that). If thats the case then the

jailkeeper

should claim then we should start popcorning after that. I don't think its good to have only one of the prs claiming, it should be all or none based off of what happened in my last game where scum claimed tracker, a role that was compatible with both real prs so neither counterclaimed. Anyway if none of the prs claim we can just assume they only have conf towns. (i guess if somebody had a conf townread on the worst or GM or something that would be useful too, up to you if you want to claim on that)

Also I figured out what I didn't like about Cat using the same words as me - mirroring can be used to buddy (& is the most common method of irl buddying, intentional and otherwise). Whether that means anything here is still undecided.

I am also mirroring your pfp. Anyway I had no idea you used 'I don't love' so much until I checked your iso, it was completely subconscious. My scheming is no where near the purposefully copying mannerisms level yet. Also hate to say it but you townreading me probably wouldnt help me too much this game.

Spoiler: catboi

No deaths is good-ish. Given how stalled out things were yesterday, I was thinking that if no PRs died during the night we'd have people claim to narrow down the pool of suspects. Thoughts? (taking a page from LLD with this strategy)

Assuming it wasn't an intentional no-kill (highly unlikely), leaves the following as possible setups:

Column A & Row 1: Mafia Roleblocker, Mafia Goon, Town Cop, Town Doctor, Vanilla Townie x 5
Column A & Row 2: Mafia Roleblocker, Mafia Goon, Town Jailkeeper, Town Tracker, Vanilla Townie x 5

Column A & Row 3: Mafia Roleblocker, Mafia Goon, Town Mason x2, Vanilla Townie x 5

Column B & Row 1: Mafia Rolecop, Mafia Goon, Town Tracker, Town Friendly Neighbor, Vanilla Townie x 5

Column B & Row 2: Mafia Rolecop, Mafia Goon, Town Jailkeeper, Town Friendly Neighbor, Vanilla Townie x 5
Column B & Row 3: Mafia Rolecop, Mafia Goon, Town Tracker, Town Doctor, Vanilla Townie x 5

Column C & Row 1: Mafia Goon x 2, Town Cop, Vanilla Townie x 6

Column C & Row 2: Mafia Goon x 2, Town Jailkeeper, Vanilla Townie x 6

Column C & Row 3: Mafia Goon x 2, Town Mason x2, Vanilla Townie x 5

Also, newbie 2093 ended, so I can say that Asphodelus replaced out because she wasn't feeling into her games. So I don't think her dropping from this game is necessarily AI, and I'm not sure her being underwhelming compared to her other games is necessarily AI. I still think worst's play from Day 1 is significantly scum-motivated.

because there's confirmed to be no kill it also limits the number of possible setups, if there's a cop or tracker the investigative report is useful information that can narrow things down (or possibly just out a mafia, depending on their target). A doc save is unambiguously clear, a jailkeeper target is unfortunately ambiguous as to whether it was a save or a blocked kill but it at least gives something to discuss. I think at this point though any information is going to be useful given where we are an the amount of replacements and idleness we had to work through on Day 1.

Spoiler: goodmorning

Massclaiming makes no sense with either 8 or 7 alive. Trying to hamstring your PRs at this stage of the game in a semiopen is not correct and I will fight anyone who thinks it is. (Even LLD, and I really like LLD!)

Now, if this were an Open, it probably would be correct, but this is not an Open.

Also: in the specific Tracker scenario mentioned, where a JK claims, it would make more sense for the Tracker to claim VT so that they can continue to investigate; otherwise they are completely useless as they'd likely eat the JK N2 (i.e., not being able to do their job) and very possibly become a miselim candidate afterwards, since they wouldn't even have "innocent child" status by way of the massclaim.

I think the only other thing for me to address is @Luke:
1. You clearly haven't been actually reading my posts if you're bringing "lies and slander" back up again.
2. What makes you think those were "busywork" questions instead of, I don't know, actual questions?
3. You wouldn't have noticed that over my "last couple games", since it's usually something I do when I get behind/replace in to games. My last game i was one of the more prolific posters, and the games before that were when I was in the process of site flaking 6 years ago and did not give a single shit about staying informed.

Anyway, more reads stuff later when I can be bothered but suffice it to say catboi may actually be Town. When I reread the game just for content and not tone, there was nothing in his posts to dislike.

Also I figured out what I didn't like about Cat using the same words as me - mirroring can be used to buddy (& is the most common method of irl buddying, intentional and otherwise). Whether that means anything here is still undecided.

Spoiler: syugar

No deaths is good-ish. Given how stalled out things were yesterday, I was thinking that if no PRs died during the night we'd have people claim to narrow down the pool of suspects. Thoughts? (taking a page from LLD with this strategy)

I am not opposed to this, i dont think? LLD convinced me that day 2 popcorn pr claims is good in general a while back - but I have not thought a out whether a lack of kill affects that at all.

nope not with 8 alive

slank cover til tomorrow, dont know what to say

theres no massing with 8 people it makes sense with 7 imo

in that sense it sucks no one died

catboi, t02, bella i believe to be town, squabbling over who else gets elim i dont particularly care, still

Because we opened the day up by immediately talking about mass claiming or not, I feel like its odd looking at everyone's entrances, because it seems to basically boil down to post on whether they agree or disagree with the mass claim for the most part - except for bella who was vla then skipped to talking about the worst.

It looks like me and catboi were pro massclaim, and everyone else was anti. That does mean that as a minimum one scum was against the mass claim, and I think that actually makes sense given the worry that there might be a floating guilty out there on them. This is another reason to think catboi is town here.

I think that the scum team would hope that the jk could be night killed without outing their target - which coincidentally, is something that cat.jpeg said explicitly "As for if a jailkeeper dies well yea their info will be lost."

I also noticed that cat.jpeg spent a lot of time talking explicitly about the jailkeeper possibility. Like says doc exactly once as part of a "doctor/jailkeeper" and then proceeds to talk about jailkeeper for the rest of the post.

Goodmorning on the other hand spent a lot of time talking about a tracker + JK combo, which I feel like could be setting up for a fake claim down the line.

I also highlighted goodmorning's comment about cat.jpeg, which feels awkward? And also surprising that goodmorning is now walking into day 3 with a cat.jpeg town read.

I am feeling a lot better about the gm+cat.jpeg solve atm. They both walked into day 2 against the mass claim, because they were worried about a guilty on one of them. Goodmorning's comment also looks like an awkward attemt to distance from cat.jpeg - which would make sense if GM is worried about having a guilty on them.

----

Something else I noticed toDay was this:

JK-T02 means I'm mostly lost again but for now

VOTE: syugar

928 feels like trying to preempt people from scumreading his lack of content D2. I kind of set him aside as a townread and stopped caring but now I'll be going back and rereading his ISO.

Cat is looking more townish again I think. 926 and the posts leading up to it look like Town happy with a solve rather than Scum pointing it out.

Kinda sad we cant get any definite info from this but its also very fun. I think the fact that whoever you jailed both days was either mafia or the nk should be enough for us to figure it out.
Can i make a guess that at least one of the days Bella was jailed?

They both walked into this day phase, trying to push for scum reads on the jk targets.

Cat.jpeg even preempts the jk target on Bella, trying to set up the idea that it was a kill stop there.

[Lukewarm]

i am partial to elimming jpeg first for a possible jk clear

I don't follow, what jk clear do you get from killing jpeg first instead of gm?

[Lukewarm]

Okay but why does this make me scum (and not the other people who didn't want to massclaim)?.

Scum would have walked into the day knowing immediately that we are in a jailkeeper/vt set up, and you seemed particularly aware of the jailkeeper? Because of the way you handled the JK claim today?

Why are you saying this instead telling me who you think it is? Because, I kinda got to you two as a PoE

T02 is confirmed town.

I've town cased catboi.

Syugar and Bella were jailkept, and i feel like they both make sense as scum kill targets. I was already leaning town on Syugar for our day 1 interaction soon after rep in. When I looked back at who thought that the worst was a pr, Bella was the first person to point out what I saw, and therefore I would expect a bella scum team to have attempted to kill the worst, not syugar.

So, from my pov, that just leaves you and goodmorning. And, when I looked back it still made sense to me. You both missed the thing I saw from the worst, and therefore would be more likely to, as a team, settle on syugar. You both were against massclaim. Your reads across one another make sense as a scum team. You have goodmorning listed as a scum read, but managed to never actually vote there (until just now). Goodmorning was awkwardly shading you, but they have also never voted for you.

I see your vote for goodmorning. Where am I wrong, and who is their actual partner if its not you?

[Lukewarm]

meh. my gut feeling is to resist the 'easy' conclusion here. I read the latest posts and I'm not sure I'm feeling it

What is your answer then? Cause this is the best I got

[Lukewarm]

I have finished my catch up.

VOTE: Tidus

The thing that I like about the ISO comment was a nice ping when I reached that point in the thread, but I did not realize that they literally fell off the face of the thread afterwards, which is definitely not a good look, and makes their in 462 worse.

I also have a worry that would be anti-town to voice currently if we were to start exploring alternative wagons.

What was this about, luke?

That was because I hit the post from the worst that I took as meaning he was a pr. I was worried that if we started looking at other wagons, that we would land back on the worst since several people had voiced suspicions and you were pushing there. So, I was trying to avoid having the pr run up and forced to claim.

[Lukewarm]

Been thinking about how to use the jailkeeper ability here.

I think that you should name the name of the person you want to jailkeep if the flip today ends up being mafia. That way - if you die, we can treat that like an inno on your target.

But you should not tell us your target if the person we kill today flips town so the two scum won't know for sure which to send.

[Lukewarm]

I have finished my catch up.

VOTE: Tidus

The thing that I like about the ISO comment was a nice ping when I reached that point in the thread, but I did not realize that they literally fell off the face of the thread afterwards, which is definitely not a good look, and makes their in 462 worse.

I also have a worry that would be anti-town to voice currently if we were to start exploring alternative wagons.

What was this about, luke?

That was because I hit the post from the worst that I took as meaning he was a pr. I was worried that if we started looking at other wagons, that we would land back on the worst since several people had voiced suspicions and you were pushing there. So, I was trying to avoid having the pr run up and forced to claim.

I then kinda immediately realized that saying it out loud like that would probably lead to people asking me follow up questions, which would also be bad since me saying "I think that someone looks like a pr" would make it more likely for the scum team to find the same post I saw. So I tried to walk it back a little when I said I jumped the gun on it lol

And is why I completely ignored syugar's follow up question about it at the time.

[Lukewarm]

I feel like we should wait for catboi to finish what he is doing before we kill gm here

[Lukewarm]

@t02 u should out jk target for if gm flip scum now

that said id much rather elim the jpeg but ill do what u want if ur decided

If this was you ramping up to hammer

[Lukewarm]

Gm is at e1 btw

[Lukewarm]

I feel like we should wait for catboi to finish what he is doing before we kill gm here

not sure what I'm doing has a ton of value but we can at least give gm a chance for a defense

You seem to be really down on your solving abilities this game - and I am not quite sure how to interact with it.

I for one have a high opinion of your reads, and am interested in seeing them - I mean our first ever game together you managed to single handedly turn the game direction around to killing the last scum, despite the entire rest of the thread thinking they were confirmed town.

T02 also seemed interested in getting your reads this day phase.

[Lukewarm]

if gm is maf I will jail bella

This is an interesting choice...

I feel like there are other slots that a clear would serve better on. Like cat.jpeg or maybe me?

Cat.jpeg seems like the obvious partner here imo, and figuring out if that is wrong seems pretty important.

In a world where gm is scum, and their partner is in (Bella, syugar, catboi), then chaining a miselim on cat.jpeg and then onto me seems like the path of least resistance maybe? And I would like for us to spot check that if possible.

Maybe I am not the second lowest there with catboi and syugar starting to town read me this phase. Maybe the second lowest is catboi at the point?

But I don't think Bella is in the bottom two.

Basically, I think disrupting the miselim plan of the scum team is better then hail marying a gut read

[Lukewarm]

I think disrupting the miselim plan of the scum team is better then hail marying a gut read

Disrupting the miselim plan of the scum team * by angling for a possible inno on someone who, if town, could be miseliminated*

[Lukewarm]

if gm is maf I will jail bella

This is an interesting choice...

I feel like there are other slots that a clear would serve better on. Like cat.jpeg or maybe me?

Cat.jpeg seems like the obvious partner here imo, and figuring out if that is wrong seems pretty important.

In a world where gm is scum, and their partner is in (Bella, syugar, catboi), then chaining a miselim on cat.jpeg and then onto me seems like the path of least resistance maybe? And I would like for us to spot check that if possible.

Maybe I am not the second lowest there with catboi and syugar starting to town read me this phase. Maybe the second lowest is catboi at the point?

But I don't think Bella is in the bottom two.

Basically, I think disrupting the miselim plan of the scum team is better then hail marying a gut read

i think ur just town in this game so i dont really want this

I presented 3 options there, not just me lol

I think it should be cat.jpeg > me = catboi > Bella = Syugar

[Lukewarm]

all this is making me feel even more that cat is the odd one out and a better choppy choppy today but say la v

I am still not quite sure the reason behind you arguing this? Do you see more partner possibilities for jpeg over gm?

What partners are you seeing for GM and what partners are you seeing for cat.jpeg?

[Lukewarm]

Let's discuss this.
If gm is town, who are maf?

Thinking about gm or jpeg flipping town hurts my brain.

[snip]

I just typed up a reason behind thinking that if I was wrong on one of syugar/bella/catboi then it would be syugar, but once I worked through that that left me with a team of syugar+jpeg, which feels very wrong since syugar is trying to get us to pivot to jpeg over gm. So, 3 paragraphs into this post I changed my mind

[Lukewarm]

it's possible I'm just letting myself get buddied too much but meh

at any rate in a world where I'm sum and gm is town I would've already hammered to send it to night because regardless of how it makse me look, getting the elim off is more useful

Wouldn't this be true for almost every scum team if gm is town?

You could hammer, syugar could hammer, bella could hammer. The only scum team that couldn't hammer a town!gm here would be me+jpeg.

[Lukewarm]

I guess I dont think that it matters much which of jpeg or gm goes first.

I think goodmorning is kind of the default because t02 seems to be Town reading jpeg. Not sure it's worth trying to sway him to move his vote, so :shrug:

[Lukewarm]

UNVOTE:

I want to know why cat.jpeg is scum reading bella

I did a search for bella in jpeg's iso, and they had Bella as a weak town read day 1 (639)

Nothing day 2

The next time she mentions Bella is start of day 3 guessing that Bella was jailkept as scum (923)

[Lukewarm]

Also, T02 - you walked into the day town reading cat.jpeg, can you tell me why you thought/think they were town?

[Lukewarm]

I remember making these points early day 2 and feeling talked out of it.

I've already shared my reads. Now I'm wavering on catjpeg again.

I hate nka but it does throw more Sus on jpeg. I think me (and syugar a little bit) has been the only real push on the slot

Nevermind, you said that she's sus in 925 but there is no progression or explanation whatsoever

I've also said this. I'd much rather do cat today

How do you explain this progression where suddenly your strongest preference is for .jpeg?

Also interested in this

[Lukewarm]

I don't know. struggling to get any read at all from trying to reread GM

feeling...not great about my ability to do anything this game

the scummiest thing,

I guess

, is their response to getting wagoned day 2 but even then I can't tell if that's more a sign of alignment or personality

probably most confident voting goodmorning right now after finishing reading butI want to actually consider everyone before I just spit out opinions

@catboi, what did you see in your reread that shifted you from struggling to get any read to most confident in voting goodmorning here?

[Lukewarm]

@mod can you prod goodmorning

[Lukewarm]

dunno if you think I'd have trouble BSing a scumcase on GM, were I scum. I could probably write one right now but I'd be forcing it

I'm not sure why you jumped to this...

I am debating if going going goodmorning or cat.jpeg is better here, and was wondering what you saw - since you went from seemingly at null to scum reading them towards the end of your reread of them. Its the same reason that I asked T02 why they were town reading jpeg, and if they still are.

I saw that Bella also prefered to start with jpeg, and syugar+bella+me is enough to put jpeg to e-1, so it can be done - and was considering if it was worth it to see what goodmorning would do if jpeg was at e-1 since we cant see what jpeg would do with goodmorning was at e-1 since his vote is already there.

So taking stock of peoples thoughts on gm and jpeg.

[Lukewarm]

there was some slightly scummy stuff at the end of the ISO, I still had doubts on whether cat.jpeg was scum,

So what did you see? and do you still have those doubts on jpeg?

[Lukewarm]

And also trying to get some content from jpeg on their bella read to see if that helps here.

[Lukewarm]

I scumread bella because of process of elimination. She and GM are the only people who dont seem towny to me. There's not a lot I can point to and say look at how scummy this is but theres also nothing that I feel she would say only as town and not as scum. Thats why I asked people why they townread bella but no one responded. I also scumread her as shes the only person I can partnered with GM. I scumread GM more than anyone right now though.

What led you to guessing that Bella had been jailkept?

[Lukewarm]

I saw that Bella also prefered to start with jpeg, and syugar+bella+me is enough to put jpeg to e-1, so it can be done - and was considering if it was worth it to see what goodmorning would do if jpeg was at e-1 since we cant see what jpeg would do with goodmorning was at e-1 since his vote is already there.

If Goodmorning was on e-1 and I wasn't already on the wagon I would hammer them.
The idea of putting me at e-1 to see what GM does is stupid. If they hammer they are sus for hammering a townie when they apparently townread them. If they don't hammer then they are sus because we are paired.

This is a decent point tho. Might not have thought that one through well enough lol

[Lukewarm]

Yeah... I'm not impressed.

VOTE: goodmorning

That's back to e-1

[Lukewarm]

My feeling at this point is that it's an intentional stall from gm. Wouldn't be the first time I've seen it. Make people wait and force them to make a decision with less time to think it over.

This line about intentional stall reminded me that gm was the one who held up the mass claim as well.

Looked back how they reacted when we popcorned to them and

I am still very anti massclaim (it clearly will provide more info to Scum than it will to Town) but will bow to the will of the 3 UTs - let me know if you're still inclined to see this through or not.

Mass claim started once the majority to it (You, me, the worst, bella, T02 all said we should do it by the time we started). Which could have been intentionally drawing out the mass claim as well to the point that we gave up on it. Like, who were they even waiting on to tell them that they should do it at that point? No names were given, and over half the player list had already said that we should do it

Even if you cross reference it to their reads list they just put out

Town
T02-
Bella -
Luke -
Cat -
catboi -
syugar -
Scum

Their top three town reads were all pro-mass claim. So who are the 3 UTs that they are waiting for? Why is it 3? Why not name the names of the people who could sway them?

Kinda missed this at the time, because I was more focused on the worst's vt claim - but I could totally see this as just trying to get us closer and closer to deadline before the claim has gone through, making it even harder for us to settle on an elim that phase.

[Lukewarm]

I am... surprised. This is the least likely scenario I was expecting coming into today.

Over night, I was thinking that even if jpeg was town, that the remaining scum would probably no kill to try and fake the guilty here.

[Lukewarm]

An inno on jpeg is pertty good for us imo. I think we would have miselimed them at some point for sure this game.

Then they would just need to angle out a single miselim in (me, catboi, bella, syugar) But, with an inno on jpeg, now they have to get two miselims in that list.

Like, this basically bought us an extra miselim

[Lukewarm]

My gut reaction is to omgus catboi, but also because he seems to have that angle to push me ready to go, when for all we knew there was not going to be a kill.

[Lukewarm]

Actually, I don't know that scum!boi would be so blatant with it tho?

[Lukewarm]

laying in bed thinking about this game - I actually dont think it can be catboi

[Lukewarm]

it has to me or syugar from your pov. What sounds more likely?.

I don't know, that's the problem. I will need to reread the two of you sometime that it is not 4:30 am.

But I was thinking about how day 2 played out, and I am really struggling to see that come from partnered gm and catboi.

His literal first post of day 2 was advocating strongly for a mass claim, specifically in a way that would appeal to me (by referencing a conversation he knew I had with LLD), and then he proceeded to argue why he thought it was the best move.

And gm was then The Reason the massclaim didn't happen, both by arguing against it and then refusing to do it when we started.

This is such a specific dissonance that I don't see them together. To be clear it is not just because they disagreed, that was the fact that the entire idea came from catboi, so I don't think this would apply to anyone else (including me).

Like how would that scum team have gotten there? Did they not talk at all? This doesn't match what I've seen of catboi in scum chats - when I read his scum chat for fgo, I felt like there was a lot of collaboration and suggestions to his partners.

He argued for it too much if he didn't actually want it to happen, and GM argued against it too hard if they actually did want it to happen

Is it a scum team that thought the mass claim would help them? GM's play makes no sense
Was it a scum team that thought the mass claim would hurt them? Catbois play makes no sense

That would just leave a team that thought it wouldn't matter either way, but then I don't think catboi leads with it and keeps arguing for it when there is push back.

I just can't see it

[Lukewarm]

that being said, the only other thing i'll offer is that if you/luke/catjpeg vote for me today, just try to sponge my townread on catboi and elim luke tomorrow

Syugar, I need you to make your read make sense to me here.

This is saying that you would bet the game on me being scum over both catboiis and bella. Which feels like a 180 over your reads yesterDay.

[Lukewarm]

otoh i just skimmed a towngame of urs and didnt see any posts close to looking like this

Like this seems to be the only thing that would have changed to push your read from one way to the other.

I need you to put some more words to this.

What game did you read in that time? What about that post are you saying never existed in that game?

[Lukewarm]

This is saying that you would bet the game on me being scum over both catboiis and bella. Which feels like a 180 over your reads yesterDay.

it literally isnt that, we have a miselim

Except it is, if you don't crop out what I was responding to.

that being said, the only other thing i'll offer is that if you/luke/catjpeg vote for me today, just try to sponge my townread on catboi and elim luke tomorrow

Syugar, I need you to make your read make sense to me here.

This is saying that you would bet the game on me being scum over both catboiis and bella. Which feels like a 180 over your reads yesterDay.

The post I was responding to was when you said was that in 3 man elo with Luke+catboi+Bella, kill Luke.

[Lukewarm]

the disconnect between some of your statements today and your supposedly very insightful townread on catboi is giving me whiplash

What does this even mean.

I am scum because I have a good reason to town read catboi, who you also think is town?

I am scum because I thought that scum would no kill here?

You somehow think that me town reading catboi but thinking scum might no kill are somehow incompatible from a town pov?

[Lukewarm]

otoh i just skimmed a towngame of urs and didnt see any posts close to looking like this

Like this seems to be the only thing that would have changed to push your read from one way to the other.

I need you to put some more words to this.

What game did you read in that time? What about that post are you saying never existed in that game?

I still want answers to these questions

given what you just said, does this mean that you don't think that I would have "insightful town reads" as town? Or that I would have them as scum?

[Lukewarm]

Specifically what game did you read.

What about that post were you looking for in that game that you say you didnt see?

[Lukewarm]

A no-kill was extraordinarily unlikely as doing so is mechanically suboptimal for mafia - it raises the chances they'll get jailed again.

I guess we were just thinking about it differently.

I saw people comment on the no kill possibility, and I thought that that might just happen

Spoiler:

Although I don't see the point of calling who I'm jaling. Maf could just do a no kill on purpose and have us elim bella

For the record I'm fine with being jailed because im either cleared or theres a no-kill. I would prefer Bella but whatever.

I still don't know that it would have been entirely mechanically suboptimal. Seems to me that the scum would have had to decide wheather it was more likely that they could lead 2 miselims in a row in [catboi, bella, syugar, me] and since we get to kill 2 of those names, it is a 50% chance that they are voted out.

OR that T02 would hit them the following night when he had 4 options (25%) and then won the 1 scum vs 2 unconfirmed townies at melo. Which is a 47.5% chance they are either jailed or voted out.

I did not run the math before just now, but they were both pretty close to 50/50 with no kill actually slightly ahead.

[Lukewarm]

and it just flatly doesnt make sense either because theres no reason or him to coordinate it such that he and his teammate agree on massclaims in the thread in a world where hes scum, it seems almost completely irrelevant

That line of thinking started from me yesterday thinking that the scum would not want the mass claim to happen because they would have likely been worried that who ever did their kill was jailkept, and that the jailkeeper could out a guilty on one of them.

[Lukewarm]

I did not run the math before just now, but they were both pretty close to 50/50 with no kill actually slightly ahead.

I actually think that I ran that math not quite right.

I think that they would be identical.

They lost 25% (either in this 1 out of 4 or by being jailed 1 out of 4)

Then, if they pass that, they are in a 1v2 at either elo or melo

[Lukewarm]

Specifically what game did you read.

What about that post were you looking for in that game that you say you didnt see?

some open in ur post history i forgot

none of your reads were as empathetically specific or comprehensive as uve been doing this game so i decided it was good enough

that also doesn't make sense and doesn't seem like a towny thought process, you're assuming 3 chess moves in advance in a game of checkers

I don't believe this.

I don't believe that you have read a single game of mine and come to the conclusion that once I start making cases, this isnt how I approach them. If anything this is tame, and very par for the course for my cases.

[Lukewarm]

VOTE: syugar

I don't buy syugar's progression from 1178 to voting in 1182 to not even considering scum!Bella in 1199. And I did not like his responses when I followed up.

Spoiler:

...but If it's not catboi, and you know it can't be you, and catjpeg is clear then it has to me or syugar from your pov. What sounds more likely?

it has to me or syugar from your pov. What sounds more likely?.

I don't know, that's the problem. I will need to reread the two of you sometime that it is not 4:30 am.

I'm talking myself into syugae being scum by Poe.

@catboi, why Luke over syugae? Considering your reaction to the hammer.

I think that he reached this exchancge between me and Bella and thought that if he didn't join up with catboi, things might turn on him, with bella shifting his direction and even reaching out to catboi to try and sway him that way.

---

I am comparing that to Bella's entrance of disagreeing with catboi's read on me, then accepting my town read on catboi, and engaging with me in a way that was accepting of me thinking of the game as it having to be between syugar and/or Bella, which is a losing strategy to start the day with imo

[Lukewarm]

Luke, can you explain the last paragraph?

I meant when you said this to me when I said i town read catboi

Spoiler:

...but If it's not catboi, and you know it can't be you, and catjpeg is clear then it has to me or syugar from your pov. What sounds more likely?

I don't think it's you. I think it /could/ be catboi. I felt day two I was agreeing with syugar a lot, but maybe I have given them a too easy pass.

There have been little bits in catbois play that seem off to me - a bit of tone, a bit of white knighting, etc., But I think I'm getting paranoid about stuff that is playstyle.

In terms of cold hard play - GM pushed on them way too hard, the mass claim, the way he interacted with you when you had the same reaction to to2's 'scum is in here', just seem really town.

I've also basically cleared you in my head because of that interaction with to2, as it was so similar to my feelings Ans then you descalated. I guess scum you has no choice, but tonally, eh

I also think scum!you has half a shot at getting catboi mis elimed with me and catjpeg, so this feels very counterintuitive.

I'm talking myself into syugae being scum by Poe.

I think it is less likely that scum!Bella would have approached it this way walking into this day phase, because you would need either me or catboi to miselimed at some point this game, and you just disagreed with catboi's scum read on me and then soft agreed with my town read on catboi

Even saying " it has to me or syugar from your pov," which fells like an approach that makes your own elim more likely to happen

[Lukewarm]

In other words, you approach made more sense to come from town, and syugars approach made more sense to come from scum imo

[Lukewarm]

Luke has had some bad takes but it feels like it's coming from town

I don't think that I have had bad takes >.<

[Lukewarm]

What part of your interactions with GM should make me not entertain you as partners?

[Lukewarm]

she also made it her game's goal to just pocket me and agree with all of my votes on LHF (tidus, worst) so we ended up consolidating votes, it's really inefficient and pointless to "meld" with your scumbuddy while lynching LHF, it doesn't give either of you town points

Where did you feel like there were doing this. When I look at their iso wrt to Tidus, it looks much more like they were just trying to stay off wagon and hope it went through without them - until finally they said they would compromise hammer if needed.

And the Worst was an OMGUS response to him joining the wagon.

What part of either one of those looked like they were pocket attempts directed at you?

[Lukewarm]

What part of your interactions with GM should make me not entertain you as partners?

d1 argument

it's apparent that she was getting ready to fully omgus me if i didn't back off if you read between the lines in postnum #97. she relents and townreads me when she realizes that i'm not interested in voting her off d1 (i'm the one who disengages in #155)

as an added bonus, this post is so dismissive and diminutive of the opinions i'd posted thus far, so as to try to signal to the game that i'm either unreasonable or untrustworthy/egotistical: postnum #81

This is... decent tho.

In particular post 97 :/

[Lukewarm]

Where did you feel like there were doing this. When I look at their iso wrt to Tidus, it looks much more like they were just trying to stay off wagon and hope it went through without them - until finally they said they would compromise hammer if needed.

supporting a vote while not voting because you don't want the day phase to hammer early is, in effect, voting

it became kinda clear to me while reading last night that at a certain point she just decided she'd ride my town cred to get my incorrect hunches through, sadly i couldn't see through it

And the Worst was an OMGUS response to him joining the wagon.

What part of either one of those looked like they were pocket attempts directed at you?

that's the point, she didn't have to play d2 because i was hopelessly tunneled onto him, she just had to add a little grease to the wagon and say she scumread him so it felt like a meld/they weren't partnered to me

Okay, but what part of that is targetted at you.

I cased Tidus. The Worst cased Tidus.

And then I cased The worst and Bella cased the worst.

[Lukewarm]

Like, I was just as vocal on both of those miselims as you, so why do you think GM's play around those elims clears you but you are also stating that I am obviously scum

[Lukewarm]

For the record, I am surprised that anyone thinks that I could be partnered with GM here, but at least 1 townie is thinking it.

If I was partnered with GM, I'm pretty sure that I could have saved them yesterday. If I had voted jpeg yesterday, it is very likely that jpeg would have just gone down, and it would not have even looked bad for me since syugar and bella were both arguing for it. Then today would be Elo.

[Lukewarm]

Okay, but what part of that is targetted at you.

What makes their comments on Tidus pocket attempts at you, instead of anyone else on Tidus, or even just basic play around a miselim.

What makes them pushing the worst have anything to do with you, over needing to push in a direction because of the wagon on her, and she thought that the worst might get support from Catboi and/or Bella since they literally had just called him scum in 669 and 694

[Lukewarm]

For the record, I am surprised that anyone thinks that I could be partnered with GM here, but at least 1 townie is thinking it.

If I was partnered with GM, I'm pretty sure that I could have saved them yesterday. If I had voted jpeg yesterday, it is very likely that jpeg would have just gone down, and it would not have even looked bad for me since syugar and bella were both arguing for it. Then today would be Elo.

which is why you waffled until t02 revealed the jk target and you could just viably bus and have a win path

Every single time I talk about play, you say everything I say is suboptimal.

But I am pretty sure that killing my partner and setting myself up to have to go through 2 miselims of the remaining playerlist would have been much more suboptimal then just voting jpeg guaranteeing both scum make it to elo.

[Lukewarm]

you're also kind of misrepresenting how elimmable catjpeg was yesterday

t02 decided to vote for goodmorning, the town wasn't going to engage in a coup against the clear, i even stated as much in my posts

I don't think that I am misrepresenting anything. You were voting jpeg. Bella said that they prefered jpeg. Thats enough for e-1, and with GM its hammered

[Lukewarm]

I mean, it's not like mafia can't go "oh shoot I was wrong I have to re-evaluate", it happens all the time. Not that I'm suspecting Bella here, this just isn't solid reasoning.

I meant comparatively.

1 player jumped on followed your vote and put me at e-1 and is trying to push my miselim through

The other player made multiple comments to talk both of you guys out of voting me (both telling you they disagreed and fussing at syugar for putting me at e1)

And so yeah, 1 looks more likely to be scum to me

[Lukewarm]

Yeah, I wasn't sure about it either. Just wanted your thoughts. I think it's interesting that it is only coming from one person tho

Whatcha talking about?

[Lukewarm]

'regret tells': it came up in catboi's last newbie he modded. I only see it from ayugar, 'oh no I got it wrong, oh no I led a mis lim'.

Idek. I feel a little uncomfy after syugars response to my vote, I'll check back in tomorrow.

That seems likely to be a personality tell. I've seen people do it as town

[Lukewarm]

Spoiler:

I used some pretty mediocre examples, as I wrongly assumed that people had similar mechanical preferences to me and deflated my own case, but I can use better examples for the Luke read. Those examples can simply be reads from today. I hate writing walls but here we go.

Luke's approach to the game is what I'd call

cerebrally inconsistent

. When you try to piece together reads and statements he has made, it almost seems like they're coming from different players. I posit the first example, his justification for townreading catboi today:

it has to me or syugar from your pov. What sounds more likely?.

I don't know, that's the problem. I will need to reread the two of you sometime that it is not 4:30 am.

But I was thinking about how day 2 played out, and I am really struggling to see that come from partnered gm and catboi.

His literal first post of day 2 was advocating strongly for a mass claim, specifically in a way that would appeal to me (by referencing a conversation he knew I had with LLD), and then he proceeded to argue why he thought it was the best move.

And gm was then The Reason the massclaim didn't happen, both by arguing against it and then refusing to do it when we started.

This is such a specific dissonance that I don't see them together. To be clear it is not just because they disagreed, that was the fact that the entire idea came from catboi, so I don't think this would apply to anyone else (including me).

Like how would that scum team have gotten there? Did they not talk at all? This doesn't match what I've seen of catboi in scum chats - when I read his scum chat for fgo, I felt like there was a lot of collaboration and suggestions to his partners.

He argued for it too much if he didn't actually want it to happen, and GM argued against it too hard if they actually did want it to happen

Is it a scum team that thought the mass claim would help them? GM's play makes no sense
Was it a scum team that thought the mass claim would hurt them? Catbois play makes no sense

That would just leave a team that thought it wouldn't matter either way, but then I don't think catboi leads with it and keeps arguing for it when there is push back.

I just can't see it

This read is ridiculously nuanced. I also think it's bad, but that isn't really necessary so I'll come back to it later. This read is so nuanced, assumptive, and pedantic that I'll call it "Level 3". I want to rank these reads on levels. To paraphase this read in a short way, he said this:

"Because catboi is an excellent scum player who collaborates with his teammates a lot, it seems impossible to me that he and his partner could have different opinions on a massclaim, especially because catboi suggested it; he seemed intent on this massclaim going through, and gm seemed like the opposite. This is unlikely, as either massclaiming or not must have been seen by his team as optimal and thus if they were teammates they would share the same opinion on the massclaim."

Wow. That's a lot. He's taking into account meta, how he thinks the scumteam would talk to eachother, mechanical facts etc etc. to paint a picture that catboi must be town here. This makes sense; the isos are so competitive and towny today that we need a bit of extra special sauce to figure them out. Compare that to how he opened the day:

My gut reaction is to omgus catboi, but also because he seems to have that angle to push me ready to go, when for all we knew there was not going to be a kill.

If the read above was

Level 3

, this is

Level 0

. Keep in mind that the read above assumes that catboi is an extremely deft and competent scum player (which he is, he won awards yadda yadda).

The first part of this read that makes it Level 0 is that it doesn't make sense. He thinks that when the day opens like this, scum must have known that there would be a kill and thus had something prepared. What he doesn't take into account is that townies could reread over the night and form theories for two reasons:

1) If there's no kill, the game very likely ends instantly. I don't need to do anything else, so when I reread tonight I should be reading with the contingency that jpeg gets cleared and look for another suspect.
2) If there's no kill, there may have been an NK. I want to read and develop theories that I will bring to the table regardless if we lynch cat jpeg or not just so we are bouncing ideas off of as many people as possible.

Maybe you can buy 1 (I don't, given the deftness of his earlier read), but given that Lukewarm was apparently obsessed with there being an NK to set up a false lynch for jpeg, it is surprising that he did not consider that catboi was thinking along line 2 similar to how he was overnight.

Furthermore, let's buy that Lukewarm believes 1 and 2. If that's the case, catboi would have essentially slipped Remember the read from earlier where he talks about how great of a scum player catboi is? If this is his true opinion on catboi, it is very difficult to believe that he would buy catboi would be that careless as scum as to not consider how his opening would make him feel perceived.

What's the point of dissecting this?

It's a fake progression

(ostensibly). This reaction to catboi's opening and the later extremely nuanced reads are incompatible. Level 3 players who are deep into the meta reads to justify specious townreads will not make thoughtless reads that don't take into account any meta perception of the player's skill level an hour before that. What?

Here are more reads I consider Level 1 from today and why:

I am comparing that to Bella's entrance of disagreeing with catboi's read on me, then accepting my town read on catboi, and engaging with me in a way that was accepting of me thinking of the game as it having to be between syugar and/or Bella, which is a losing strategy to start the day with imo

This is his justification for townreading Bella. Let me rephrase it without the fluff:

"Bella came into the day with reads. She interacted with my read. Then she acknowledged that if I townread catboi, fmpov it has to be her or syugar (basic logic that isn't even a comment on anything in the game other than signaling that she read what I posted). This is a losing strategy (why is that losing if you townread it? citation needed.)"

I don't actually see anything out of range for anyone who's played for as long as Bella here. If this is towny for Bella, what is Bella's scum game like? Does she have no reads? Does she not read other people's posts and engage with them? How is someone who has so much reverence for one player's scum game think that another experienced player is so incompetent that these are towny actions from them?

I think this bleeds into some of the theoretical mechanical discussion (I think that there has been talk of things that just pretty much wouldn't happen), but since people don't agree with me on that, I'm willing to drop it because it isn't really necessary to my argument.

Other things I disliked:

Let's look at his read on me:

VOTE: syugar

I don't buy syugar's progression from 1178 to voting in 1182 to not even considering scum!Bella in 1199. And I did not like his responses when I followed up.

For the first part, he doesn't explain why he finds my progression unbelievable.

For the second part, this is misrepresentative.

He's referencing this post:

that being said, the only other thing i'll offer is that if you/luke/catjpeg vote for me today, just try to sponge my townread on catboi and elim luke tomorrow

Nothing about it implies that I wasn't considering Bella ~at all~. He arbitrarily loaded that into my thought process by misinterpreting the statement I was leaning towards Luke being scum, yeah, but what he's missing is that this post is addressed to Bella. Why was this addressed to Bella? She seemed unsure on catboi's alignment and was hard townreading Luke. In a world where she is town, this has to be made known, because catjpeg is going to be killed at night and I need her to get over her paranoia on catboi and erroneous scumread on Luke. Considering it's addressed to Bella, and the three players alive would be Bella, Luke, and catboi, her voting Luke just logically follows from her accepting my townread on catboi.

This is evident in my reply:

The post I was responding to was when you said was that in 3 man elo with Luke+catboi+Bella, kill Luke.

oh yeah, i agree with myself then

u tr catboi so i dont see how u find it unreasonable, altho in a perfect world id be able to elim both u and bella

I'm trying to reach common ground with him here. "You TR catboi so I don't see how you find it unreasonable (fmpov)". It doesn't really make sense for him to scumread the fact that I townread catboi this hard considering he townreads catboi himself. Like, what?

Again, his reasoning for FoSing me feels kind of arbitrary. Looks like he saw me as the vote and needed a way to get there. He chose weird things to get hung up over and refused to empathize with it from my PoV, which is strange given how he tried to step into catboi's shoes to produce that townread on him (again).

That part of the case is done, now I want to revisit this:

it has to me or syugar from your pov. What sounds more likely?.

I don't know, that's the problem. I will need to reread the two of you sometime that it is not 4:30 am.

But I was thinking about how day 2 played out, and I am really struggling to see that come from partnered gm and catboi.

His literal first post of day 2 was advocating strongly for a mass claim, specifically in a way that would appeal to me (by referencing a conversation he knew I had with LLD), and then he proceeded to argue why he thought it was the best move.

And gm was then The Reason the massclaim didn't happen, both by arguing against it and then refusing to do it when we started.

This is such a specific dissonance that I don't see them together. To be clear it is not just because they disagreed, that was the fact that the entire idea came from catboi, so I don't think this would apply to anyone else (including me).

Like how would that scum team have gotten there? Did they not talk at all? This doesn't match what I've seen of catboi in scum chats - when I read his scum chat for fgo, I felt like there was a lot of collaboration and suggestions to his partners.

He argued for it too much if he didn't actually want it to happen, and GM argued against it too hard if they actually did want it to happen

Is it a scum team that thought the mass claim would help them? GM's play makes no sense
Was it a scum team that thought the mass claim would hurt them? Catbois play makes no sense

That would just leave a team that thought it wouldn't matter either way, but then I don't think catboi leads with it and keeps arguing for it when there is push back.

I just can't see it

This reasoning is patently forced. Think to the last time you've ever played as scum. You had a QT, or maybe you had a discord server. Have you ever planned bringing up such a topic with your partners and made sure you were aligned on it, ever? Especially for something that's been argued as town-optimal such as a massclaim? When scum strategize with eachother (at least this has always been the case for me), they think broad strokes; "these narratives about players xyz need to be pushed eventually. We need to have tension on a point in order to seem like we aren't partners. etc, stuff like that".

On top of that, even if we were to say that they planned something around the massclaim, there's nothing suggesting they wouldn't plan the opposite as a means of distancing from eachother on a fundamental level.

On top of that, we don't even know how actively they would have communicated in this hypothetical scenario. GM posted light and was quite inactive. The massclaim suggestion was somewhat off-the-cuff based on a gamestate where we didn't have a lot of information due to stagnation.

Keep in mind this is a read that flipped Luke's perceptions of catboi, so you'd think it'd have to be something pretty strong. This read takes four or five assumptions that may prove true or untrue and essentially gambles the game on them. It feels like

justification created after the read was decided

. For strategic reasons. I don't think town!Luke would find this super soul read convincing enough to carry this anti partner read. It's like... out of his own book, TMI?

I am open to discussion about either of these points, as long as you're representing them properly.

This is a lot of words to boil down to
1) Luke's first reaction to catboi's push was weak and not well thought out
2) After walking away and thinking on it a bit, he had very detailed thoughts on catboi's alignments
3) ????
4) Therefore Luke is scum.

I admit that 1 and 2 are both true.

"Luke's approach to the game is what I'd call cerebrally inconsistent. When you try to piece together reads and statements he has made, it almost seems like they're coming from different players"

First, the timing of the posts syugar grabbed were explicitly when we just walked into this day phase, and it was confirmed to me that I had been town reading scum, and that I needed to throw away my earlier town reads and try again. And that was immediately before I saw catboi pushing me since when I opened the thread up the T02 flip and catbois vote were litearlly back to back . But then as I laid in bed I was thinking back over all of the reasons that I was town reading catboi the day before, and it was hard to slot it together. -- But syugar wants people to believe that it is impossible for me, as town, to have those thoughts occur at those times.

I don't think that there is even a reason why I need to have that 180 there as scum.

---

I am grabbing some cases that I have made in other games, to show why I don't think that syugar really did meta on me and came to the conclusion "none of your reads were as empathetically specific or comprehensive as uve been doing this game so i decided it was good enough" or "that also doesn't make sense and doesn't seem like a towny thought process, you're assuming 3 chess moves in advance in a game of checkers."

Here are some of my reads from my most recenly completed town game. I am town reading SM largely based on meta I have on them and how they approach certain types of players. My town read on titus is framed in the specific word choice used when expressing a detailed idea.... And my scum read on Catboi was omgus. I could not believe that a town catboi would push me the way that catboi was pushing me that game.

[

Town

Spoiler: StrangeMatter

58
I stand by the fact that their reads list in 535 had a total of 3 names to be town indicative for them. SM was not even taking the time to flesh out most of the reasons, so could have easily put more names in there - even just copying a couple consensus reads.

I have also seen town!StangeMatter say the exact same general idea behind "Partial paranoia but he just feels like how he played in Mini 2265 and I can never get a read on him" in two separate games. Putting people down as scum leans because they bamboozled them in the past.

They did it with me here: viewtopic.php?t=88785&f=90&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

They did it another time with Dwlee here: viewtopic.php?p=13200640#p13200640

This is distinctly in line with how town!StrangeMatter thinks about slots, even if it is a strange approach.

I like 546 as well

I would be VERY surprised it StrangeMatter flips scum here. SM is a LHF player that is often misread.

Spoiler: Titus

Figured I would explain the dumb working thing about 36. It was the asynchronous way she referred to the scum team in the conclusion of each line.

then they win | then scum lose
scum win | we win

I would expect scum to be thinking more to make sure they don't mess up and say we, us, them to refer to the wrong group. (which is why, more often then not, I expect something like that to actually be a town mistype). But in trying to make sure that in this repeated if then scenario, they were actually worried about that, I would expect it to be more consistent.

So, yeah. That was my dumb reason to town read titus.

Re: the "stop voting my mason." It distinctly reminded me of her town hunting approach in a prior game. I thought it was 2226, but looking back at that game I am not seeing exactly what I was reminded of... so it must have been a different game. Not trudging through all of my games to find it.

{snip}

Scum

Spoiler: catboi

OMGUS

But for serious, I think that this is scum Catboi.

I have so many thoughts, but I feel like I am going to end up typing a thesis paper that won't convince anyone.... and I am struggling to express it in a way that is clear.

[I just typed out a rambling mess, and deleted it]

He feels like he is staking strategic positioning around people, vs naturally being in the game. I felt that way about his early interactions with Pooky (which also felt similar to the way he positioned around pooky in our Secret Hitler game), with the praetorian and mena in post 203, and with me.

His approach to me actually reminds me of scum!Prism's approach to me in our last game together, which was only the second ever time I have been miseliminated as town, so probably a good approach to have.

[omg , deleted another rambling mess.]

I am very certain in this read, but I don't think I type it out in a way that makes sense, so poo poo on me, I am actually just not good at the game.

Hey guys, if Catboi ever dies, and flips scum, probably look at Bell. If Catboi flips town, Bell can go up a couple notches on my reads list

He said it wasn't a townie thought process that I was thinking about the way that the scum team might be working together, here is a partner read built around what I perceived to be the scum plan at the time.

Spoiler:

To me, option 1 looks like a scum team that has some semblance of a plan. Option 2 looks like a scum team that is all pulling in completely opposite directions.

I don't have a ton of experience with Titus, but from what I have seen, I feel like she would have had some semblance of a plan.

I would go as far as to say that there is already evidence this game that Titus was trying to coordinate plans in the scum chat, when you look at Day 0 and see Moon Cancer, Day 0, jumping on to the Saber 4 Master campaign when Titus thought she could win the master. Then Moon doing a full 180, and calling Saber scum once Titus realized she had lost the master (and that she would probably need to bus if she wanted to regain a footing in the game)

---------------

So yeah, foreigner being scum makes more sense to me.

I would no longer say that scum!Avenger is impossible, but would need to see more evidence for it -- such as foreigner flipping town in order to give me any evidence that a counter wagon was being made by the scum team

And, there have been reads that have gone off the deep end.

Spoiler:

Subject: Mini 2230: Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night: Game Over

I am going to break down why this post implys a wildly inconsistent thought process from Titus.
This post was written at 1:18 PM est

@Annie, The reason why I played it the way I did is that it leaves scum with no good options.

Topic sentence. Titus is presenting this post as HER PLAN ALL ALONG. This is not her spur of the moment thing she did. This is "why she played it the way she did"

If we shard me and then I get enough shards to turn demonic, I am removed from the elimination pool.

If we give her a shard today, and THEN she gets enough shards to turn demonic. "Her plan all along" revolves around the idea that she needs more then one shard.

However, by not sharding me after I get sharded today, they are suggesting they want me in the elimination pool which indirectly suggests I am town.

The only move for them is to argue that I am not an FN to try and eliminate me before I get enough shards to become a demon. It forces them to tunnel me.

Not only does her plan involve getting more then 1 shard, her gambit actually HINGES on it. She gets one shard, and then forces the scum team to decide the pro/con of giving her the second shard. Like. This is the gambit she was making in asking for a shard...
This makes zero sense if Titus thought that she only needed one shard. There is no explanation that I can come up with to make this make sense.

If they do decide to demon me and then roleblock me, then that's resources that aren't spent on our investigates which means they get shots off. Plus, they'd risk being tracked and or watched as I'd be an ideal target for such investigations if they occurred.

A bit of a broken record here, but once again. "If

They

decide to demonize her following getting her first shard.

-----
Again, that post was made at 1:18 pm est.

At 1:45 pm est Titus is asked about the shard numbers that she needs

How many shards do you need to get the FN/become demonic again?

The default number. I have none now. I need to check the ruleset.

At 1:48 pm est Titus acknowledges that she originally thought that everyone needed 1 shard, but that now she is realizing that she needs 2

I'm not sure what you mean by a 1-sharder. We should all be one-sharders.

What did this mean?

I was supposing everyone only needed one shard to be demonic, since my role PM didn't say. There's talk of two shards being needed though.

At 1:51 Annie comes in with the confimation of needing 2 shards

Unless otherwise specified, a player is considered "Demonic" if they have two or more shards, otherwise, they are classified as "Human". Players may start with 0 or more shards per their role

-----

Now, jump to when Titus started talking to me.

I'm not sure when I figured it out. I was confused and probably thinking both simultaneously until Annie quoted the mod for me. There's no way I can know the exact post when I was first told. The mod got back to me right as Annie posted.

Titus claims that she became aware of the correct answer when Annie told her, which was around the same time that the mod confirmed it. So 1:51.
BUT, she outlined her whole "gambit" at 1:18. The time line does not make sense.

In Conclusion, there are major cognitive inconsistencies in her post explaining her gambit.

Subject: Mini 2230: Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night: Game Over

HYPOTHESIS.

Titus is a dirty scum bag who needs 1 shard to be turned into a demon. At the start of the day, the scum team was gunning for a shard win, and she went for it. Post change, like pooky pointed out it was less of a priority -- Every thing after that was Titus playing on the back foot

I think that pooky had her dead to rights. But Titus needed to respond, because she cannot just say "welp, you got me. I stopped caring about the shard because that stopped looking like the best way for me to win"

Que 1965. Notice She does not immediately say "pooky, you have activated my trap card," and reveal her gambit. In this post, she is just tries to talk her way out of the pooky vote. But pooky does not drop it 1966

It is not until she is unable to talk pooky out of it and it looks like he might push her, that she reveals the "gambit" see post 1970.

Also of note, 1981 Medea voting Titus did not activate her "gambit" but pooky's did. The difference? pooky is pushing her

because

of her interaction with the shard mechanic.

But now she is getting pressed about her "gambit." Pooky, the Dragons, and Annie all question her.

That is when Titus sits down and has to come up with a comprehensive outline to explain her gambit in a way that makes sense, given all of the questions. Que post 2013.

New interesting thing to note, this new detailed gambit explanation actually has nothing to do with her original slayers gambit

2028/2029/2031 is her not taking into account that she had already revealed that she only needed one shard earlier, and is now back peddling again.

Also, this seems tonally off as well:

Spoiler:

In Titus's world with her gambit, she just trapped scum!pooky

see wasn't that way easier

If I outright claim, I don't net scum. It's a small contribution but it's useful in catching opportunistic votes, which I knew would happen.

Does this sound like someone who is talking to someone who just fell for they gambit? Or is this someone scrambling to make the thread believe her fake explanation for not going for the shard?
This is TO POOKY, the person she just "caught"

[Lukewarm]

And, this is why I was pushing so hard for him to tell me what game he even read of mine to come to those conclusions.

Because it looks like he was argueing "Luke thinks about games the way that Luke thinks about game -- and therefore Luke is scum" And then he tried to back it up as a meta based read.

[
otoh i just skimmed a towngame of urs and didnt see any posts close to looking like this

But he was never even able to do that.

Specifically what game did you read.

What about that post were you looking for in that game that you say you didnt see?

some open in ur post history i forgot

none of your reads were as empathetically specific or comprehensive as uve been doing this game so i decided it was good enough

[Lukewarm]

Spoiler:

classic game where I'm onto scum early then talk myself out of it for 2 days

VOTE: lukewarm

I did a little rereading during the night. I think my reasons for un-aligning him with goodmorning were poor in hindsight. I think that both jailkeeper targets were plausibly saves, and I think both displayed a believable level of paranoia yesterday that is more likely to come from town.

not gonna lie im closer to voting bella than this lmao

i also townread catboi over everyone else atm

it has to me or syugar from your pov. What sounds more likely?.

I don't know, that's the problem. I will need to reread the two of you sometime that it is not 4:30 am.

But I was thinking about how day 2 played out, and I am really struggling to see that come from partnered gm and catboi.

His literal first post of day 2 was advocating strongly for a mass claim, specifically in a way that would appeal to me (by referencing a conversation he knew I had with LLD), and then he proceeded to argue why he thought it was the best move.

And gm was then The Reason the massclaim didn't happen, both by arguing against it and then refusing to do it when we started.

This is such a specific dissonance that I don't see them together. To be clear it is not just because they disagreed, that was the fact that the entire idea came from catboi, so I don't think this would apply to anyone else (including me).

Like how would that scum team have gotten there? Did they not talk at all? This doesn't match what I've seen of catboi in scum chats - when I read his scum chat for fgo, I felt like there was a lot of collaboration and suggestions to his partners.

He argued for it too much if he didn't actually want it to happen, and GM argued against it too hard if they actually did want it to happen

Is it a scum team that thought the mass claim would help them? GM's play makes no sense
Was it a scum team that thought the mass claim would hurt them? Catbois play makes no sense

That would just leave a team that thought it wouldn't matter either way, but then I don't think catboi leads with it and keeps arguing for it when there is push back.

I just can't see it

otoh i just skimmed a towngame of urs and didnt see any posts close to looking like this

And even looking at this progression here. He is catching up. He hits catbois vote on me, and says that he prefers Bella. He makes 1179 at 7:10. Then he makes 1190 at 7:15.

That means he had the thought on my post, looked up a recent game of mine, went through my iso to analyze my cases in that game and read them closely enough to come to the confident conclusion that I just don't make detailed nuanced cases, came back to the thread and called me scummy in 5 mins.

[Lukewarm]

And like, if he really believed everything that he said in 1317 then what was he doing when he made this comment

luke looks less partnered with gm the more i reread and talked with him today, largely for reasons i already believed in yesterday and just threw aside, i didn't really have any logical edge against him when we were arguing and his points related to yesterday's vote make sense

So, he was absolutely convinced that I was scum. Then decided that I was town. Then went back to being convinced I was scum. Both of the changes happened while I was completely out of the thread.

[Lukewarm]

And I mean absolutely convinced

its too bad u outed already with ur body of work today

to looks unpartnered, and he didn't have any "logical edge" against me when arguing

luke looks less partnered with gm the more i reread and talked with him today, largely for reasons i already believed in yesterday and just threw aside, i didn't really have any logical edge against him when we were arguing and his points related to yesterday's vote make sense

Back to seemingly convinced

What's the point of dissecting this? It's a fake progression (ostensibly). This reaction to catboi's opening and the later extremely nuanced reads are incompatible.

All while I was out of the thread and had made zero posts.

[Lukewarm]

Keep in mind this is a read that flipped Luke's perceptions of catboi, so you'd think it'd have to be something pretty strong. This read takes four or five assumptions that may prove true or untrue and essentially gambles the game on them. It feels like justification created after the read was decided. For strategic reasons. I don't think town!Luke would find this super soul read convincing enough to carry this anti partner read. It's like... out of his own book, TMI?

And even here, he sayd "for strategic reasons" without even giving a strategic reason for me to do this if I were scum.

He is also completely breezing past the fact that catboi was a strong town read the day before AND that I had already looked at everyone's stances the day before.

Also with the knowledge that maf knew what the setup was since day 2, it makes catboi's mass claim proposal a lot more suspicious.
If the mass claim went through, one of the mafs could have claimed tracker, I die N2 and maf easily gets a miselim D3 and wins.

VOTE: catboi

I am finding it really hard to look at my day 2 interactions with catboi (starting at post 755) coming from scum!boi.

I don't think that scum catboi approaches me this way. I was not particularly town read, so people are not following me - and he just happened to exist on a list of

5 names

of people in my PoE, and I was not pushing him at the time. This is not a threat to scum!catboi that he needs to deal with, and getting me to town read him is likely not a top priority.

It reads more like proper frustration at getting incorrectly scum read by me once again.

I also don't think that he then questions me when I say that my scum read softened.

And finally, I buy 762

Spoiler: Bella

@mod,.vla until monday

The worsts reads seem to be 'elim anything that isn't me'. I've not played with them much, but I don't recognize this kind of survivalist/ opportunist vibe. I'd like to see them really take ownership of a case, even if to understand their thought process.

@ the worst, you've votes everyone living apart from me, syugar and t02. You've just said you maybe town read catjpeg and catboi, but phrased in a really wooly way.
You also ignored the rest of my post. That's both you and catboi who have blatantly misrepped me now.

Spoiler: cat.jpeg

If both prs claim neither of them will definitely die (because we have a protective role) unless we have a mafia roleblocker which is a 2/5 chance. If there isn’t a roleblocker then I think its still unlikely

doctor

/

jailkeeper

will save the nk and it will be wifom thing. Bit better chance if it’s a

jailkeeper

though but still not good odds. I think the prs should claim tmr. If one of the prs dies sure we miss out on a potential conf town that they could of told us of, but on day 3 we can just look at their biggest townread from today. As for if a

jailkeeper

dies well yea their info will be lost.

About

jailkeeper

, obviously a conf mafia is more useful than a conf town but is a 'either mafia or nightkill' more useful than a conf town? im not sure but if we had a

jailkeeper

they probably picked someone with the intention of protecting them or stopping them from killing so they likely have an opinion about whether their target is town or not. I'm opposed to mass claim today unless we have a

jailkeeper

with somebody they think is scum (or a different role with a guilty but obviously you should always claim if ur that). If thats the case then the

jailkeeper

should claim then we should start popcorning after that. I don't think its good to have only one of the prs claiming, it should be all or none based off of what happened in my last game where scum claimed tracker, a role that was compatible with both real prs so neither counterclaimed. Anyway if none of the prs claim we can just assume they only have conf towns. (i guess if somebody had a conf townread on the worst or GM or something that would be useful too, up to you if you want to claim on that)

Also I figured out what I didn't like about Cat using the same words as me - mirroring can be used to buddy (& is the most common method of irl buddying, intentional and otherwise). Whether that means anything here is still undecided.

I am also mirroring your pfp. Anyway I had no idea you used 'I don't love' so much until I checked your iso, it was completely subconscious. My scheming is no where near the purposefully copying mannerisms level yet. Also hate to say it but you townreading me probably wouldnt help me too much this game.

Spoiler: catboi

No deaths is good-ish. Given how stalled out things were yesterday, I was thinking that if no PRs died during the night we'd have people claim to narrow down the pool of suspects. Thoughts? (taking a page from LLD with this strategy)

Assuming it wasn't an intentional no-kill (highly unlikely), leaves the following as possible setups:

Column A & Row 1: Mafia Roleblocker, Mafia Goon, Town Cop, Town Doctor, Vanilla Townie x 5
Column A & Row 2: Mafia Roleblocker, Mafia Goon, Town Jailkeeper, Town Tracker, Vanilla Townie x 5

Column A & Row 3: Mafia Roleblocker, Mafia Goon, Town Mason x2, Vanilla Townie x 5

Column B & Row 1: Mafia Rolecop, Mafia Goon, Town Tracker, Town Friendly Neighbor, Vanilla Townie x 5

Column B & Row 2: Mafia Rolecop, Mafia Goon, Town Jailkeeper, Town Friendly Neighbor, Vanilla Townie x 5
Column B & Row 3: Mafia Rolecop, Mafia Goon, Town Tracker, Town Doctor, Vanilla Townie x 5

Column C & Row 1: Mafia Goon x 2, Town Cop, Vanilla Townie x 6

Column C & Row 2: Mafia Goon x 2, Town Jailkeeper, Vanilla Townie x 6

Column C & Row 3: Mafia Goon x 2, Town Mason x2, Vanilla Townie x 5

Also, newbie 2093 ended, so I can say that Asphodelus replaced out because she wasn't feeling into her games. So I don't think her dropping from this game is necessarily AI, and I'm not sure her being underwhelming compared to her other games is necessarily AI. I still think worst's play from Day 1 is significantly scum-motivated.

because there's confirmed to be no kill it also limits the number of possible setups, if there's a cop or tracker the investigative report is useful information that can narrow things down (or possibly just out a mafia, depending on their target). A doc save is unambiguously clear, a jailkeeper target is unfortunately ambiguous as to whether it was a save or a blocked kill but it at least gives something to discuss. I think at this point though any information is going to be useful given where we are an the amount of replacements and idleness we had to work through on Day 1.

Spoiler: goodmorning

Massclaiming makes no sense with either 8 or 7 alive. Trying to hamstring your PRs at this stage of the game in a semiopen is not correct and I will fight anyone who thinks it is. (Even LLD, and I really like LLD!)

Now, if this were an Open, it probably would be correct, but this is not an Open.

Also: in the specific Tracker scenario mentioned, where a JK claims, it would make more sense for the Tracker to claim VT so that they can continue to investigate; otherwise they are completely useless as they'd likely eat the JK N2 (i.e., not being able to do their job) and very possibly become a miselim candidate afterwards, since they wouldn't even have "innocent child" status by way of the massclaim.

I think the only other thing for me to address is @Luke:
1. You clearly haven't been actually reading my posts if you're bringing "lies and slander" back up again.
2. What makes you think those were "busywork" questions instead of, I don't know, actual questions?
3. You wouldn't have noticed that over my "last couple games", since it's usually something I do when I get behind/replace in to games. My last game i was one of the more prolific posters, and the games before that were when I was in the process of site flaking 6 years ago and did not give a single shit about staying informed.

Anyway, more reads stuff later when I can be bothered but suffice it to say catboi may actually be Town. When I reread the game just for content and not tone, there was nothing in his posts to dislike.

Also I figured out what I didn't like about Cat using the same words as me - mirroring can be used to buddy (& is the most common method of irl buddying, intentional and otherwise). Whether that means anything here is still undecided.

Spoiler: syugar

No deaths is good-ish. Given how stalled out things were yesterday, I was thinking that if no PRs died during the night we'd have people claim to narrow down the pool of suspects. Thoughts? (taking a page from LLD with this strategy)

I am not opposed to this, i dont think? LLD convinced me that day 2 popcorn pr claims is good in general a while back - but I have not thought a out whether a lack of kill affects that at all.

nope not with 8 alive

slank cover til tomorrow, dont know what to say

theres no massing with 8 people it makes sense with 7 imo

in that sense it sucks no one died

catboi, t02, bella i believe to be town, squabbling over who else gets elim i dont particularly care, still

Because we opened the day up by immediately talking about mass claiming or not, I feel like its odd looking at everyone's entrances, because it seems to basically boil down to post on whether they agree or disagree with the mass claim for the most part - except for bella who was vla then skipped to talking about the worst.

It looks like me and catboi were pro massclaim, and everyone else was anti.

That does mean that as a minimum one scum was against the mass claim, and I think that actually makes sense given the worry that there might be a floating guilty out there on them. This is another reason to think catboi is town here.

I think that the scum team would hope that the jk could be night killed without outing their target - which coincidentally, is something that cat.jpeg said explicitly "As for if a jailkeeper dies well yea their info will be lost."

I also noticed that cat.jpeg spent a lot of time talking explicitly about the jailkeeper possibility. Like says doc exactly once as part of a "doctor/jailkeeper" and then proceeds to talk about jailkeeper for the rest of the post.

Goodmorning on the other hand spent a lot of time talking about a tracker + JK combo, which I feel like could be setting up for a fake claim down the line.

I also highlighted goodmorning's comment about cat.jpeg, which feels awkward? And also surprising that goodmorning is now walking into day 3 with a cat.jpeg town read.

I am feeling a lot better about the gm+cat.jpeg solve atm. They both walked into day 2 against the mass claim, because they were worried about a guilty on one of them. Goodmorning's comment also looks like an awkward attemt to distance from cat.jpeg - which would make sense if GM is worried about having a guilty on them.

----

Something else I noticed toDay was this line

Like, I town read catboi, my read wavered for a moment when he started pushing me, and then went back to thinking the same things that I had thought the day before -- and he is painting that as an impossible progression.

[Lukewarm]

The way he latches on to syugar suggesting a team of jpeg/gm but stays parked on gm doesn't make a ton of logical sense - realistically I'm not sure why he resists the cat.jpeg vote if he believes that's the team but it makes more sense if he's trying to position himself on the "correct" vote yesterday and is wary of being suspected for leaping off of gm

catboi... this isn't even true I don't think.

I think that I landed on the gm+jpeg solve before syugar ever did, so that definitely wasn't me latching onto anything...

----


942 T02 reveals that syugar and bella were the jk targets.

I start solving given a clear To2, and I voted GM soon after with 948. There was no reason for me to already be bussing here.

I have the solve of GM and jpeg in 949 and start casing it with 950.

T02 votes catboi in 953.

I immediately town case catboi in 955, trying to dissuade a wagon there. (Which as scum, I definitly should not do... Bella said that they thought it was catboi+GM in 937. Bella+T02 on catboi would have been a godsend for scum luke there)

(Syugar first suggests GM and jpeg in 973 btw)

I do some more rereading, and end up casing GM+jpeg some more in 985.

989/990 syugar says that he agrees with my case, and then suggests that we kill gm first for a "possible jk clear" I immediately ask what he means, because if that is true I'd move my vote, but I did not understand what he was saying. (which as scum, I literally just presented that as the team, and I could have just... moved my vote to sheep him)

His response was 995, which did not make a ton of sense to me, and T02 asked him to follow up. 996.

At this point, I was still just waiting for him to tell me what he saw that I was missing on why that was better then the other.

jpeg votes gm in 999
T02 votes gm in 1016

So now, I still did not understand why syugar prefered jpeg go first, but gm had 3 votes and jpeg had 1. So it had inertia. It seemed likely to me that they were both scum, and so it did not make sense to me to move to the smaller wagon

Which I explicitly said here

I guess I dont think that it matters much which of jpeg or gm goes first.

I think goodmorning is kind of the default because t02 seems to be Town reading jpeg. Not sure it's worth trying to sway him to move his vote, so :shrug:

T02 was on goodmorning, and was townreading jpeg. moving the elim seemed like it would take effort, and it seemed like wasted effort.

[Lukewarm]

VOTE: Cat.Jpeg

im badly outplayed if this is wrong and will go eat my underwear

iso looks partnered with gm with the initial readslist and the followup so thatd be my first jk instinct

VOTE: goodmorning

Not impressed with your lack of engagement.

if gm is maf I will jail bella

I think you should jail someone you havent before

prob jk on catboi idk tho cuz he also seems quite townish but i dont think ill have that degree of confidence

Something else I just spoted was syugar's progression on who should be jailkept.

His presented solve was goodmorning+jpeg, but kill jpeg first, and then jail goodmorning. This is a stance feels like it makes sense with his read pairing. Scum!syugar is risking nothing with this stance, since if jpeg is flipped it doesn't matter if t02 jks gm.

Then, GM hits e-1.

Now, his stance is "don't jail someone you have already jailed" (which since he was jailed, it definitely benefits him)

And then he lands on... catboi? Remember, he was set on the jpeg+gm solve, and originally saying "kill one and jail the other." And that just disappears now that it looks like GM is going through.

I think that syugar prefered catboi being jailed, because he wanted to keep the miselim option open for jpeg.

[Lukewarm]

And like, if he really believed everything that he said in 1317 then what was he doing when he made this comment

luke looks less partnered with gm the more i reread and talked with him today, largely for reasons i already believed in yesterday and just threw aside, i didn't really have any logical edge against him when we were arguing and his points related to yesterday's vote make sense

So, he was absolutely convinced that I was scum. Then decided that I was town. Then went back to being convinced I was scum. Both of the changes happened while I was completely out of the thread.

What? This actually

is

flailing: it's not true. I didn't even say that I currently believed you were the best vote, I'm just restating myself more clearly and engaging with Bella to try and show my thought process and understand what she thinks about it, how it changes her read about you in any way, and if-not-why-not. I rephrased my argument so that Bella could engage with it: I said nothing about continuing on to vote you (yet).

VOTE: Unvote

Here's what I'm going to do.

I believe I was a bit inarticulate about the read you just referenced on Luke. When I get home, I'll rehash it in more detail and we can talk through it.

This is

another

case of you misrepresenting me; you realize I haven't even voted you yet?

Are you seriously going to say that you wrote all of 1317, and then it is wrong for me to think your flip flopped back to being really sure that I was scum?

You literally went from saying "luke looks less partnered with gm the more i reread and talked with him today, largely for reasons i already believed in yesterday and just threw aside, i didn't really have any logical edge against him when we were arguing and his points related to yesterday's vote make sense" to making the longest scum case you have made all game.

I don't care if you didn't you flat out say thatyou were convinced, or whether your vote moved with the case - the point still stands.

[Lukewarm]

It's a crack in your game that doesn't line up with your perceived skill level or process, it feels like guttural and reactive pure defense or just a throwaway reaction used to force the impression of a progression on the table. It's a type of loquacious empty-headedness that doesn't fit into the rest of your game.

I can't believe that you believe this. That just because I lay in bed at night and think about games, that I don't also make posts in the moment, as I'm reading, that are less thought out.

[Lukewarm]

Why haven't I? It doesn't look like you were genuinely interested in getting an answer to that question, because you dropped it as soon as gave an answer you deem as unsatisfactory. You still don't. This shows something kind of impure about your approach: this clearly bothers you, but instead of browbeating me for an answer you're just interested in reframing and assuming the meaning of these posts. You're totally satisfied to hang me with my own words without first going through the social interactions to understand what my own words even are.

And again, this is not aligned with what I have done this game. You are acting like I did not ask you multiple follow up questions trying to figure out how you could have landed on that conclusion genuinely, and could not get an answer from you

otoh i just skimmed a towngame of urs and didnt see any posts close to looking like this

Like this seems to be the only thing that would have changed to push your read from one way to the other.

I need you to put some more words to this.

What game did you read in that time? What about that post are you saying never existed in that game?

the disconnect between some of your statements today and your supposedly very insightful townread on catboi is giving me whiplash

What does this even mean.

I am scum because I have a good reason to town read catboi, who you also think is town?

I am scum because I thought that scum would no kill here?

You somehow think that me town reading catboi but thinking scum might no kill are somehow incompatible from a town pov?

otoh i just skimmed a towngame of urs and didnt see any posts close to looking like this

Like this seems to be the only thing that would have changed to push your read from one way to the other.

I need you to put some more words to this.

What game did you read in that time? What about that post are you saying never existed in that game?

I still want answers to these questions

given what you just said, does this mean that you don't think that I would have "insightful town reads" as town? Or that I would have them as scum?

Specifically what game did you read.

What about that post were you looking for in that game that you say you didnt see?

[Lukewarm]

Bluntly, you're misrepresenting what I said, again. I said I "skimmed a towngame of yours and didn't see any posts close to this".

You're incorrectly assuming that that means "Luke just doesn't make detailed, nuanced cases". It never crossed your mind to ask me what I meant by that.

Ditto for this

[Lukewarm]

Bluntly, you're misrepresenting what I said, again. I said I "skimmed a towngame of yours and didn't see any posts close to this".

You're incorrectly assuming that that means "Luke just doesn't make detailed, nuanced cases". It never crossed your mind to ask me what I meant by that.

Ditto for this

[Lukewarm]

Yes, I think it's kind of obvious that I'm trying to give Bella something good to engage with so I can come to understand her thoughts better if you read the conversation leading up to that.

This feels really really like you are saying

"Yes I made a giant case against you, calling you scum in very certain terms, and trying to get another player to see why I think you are scummy... but I didn't vote you, so why are you acting like I was scum reading you so hard when I wrote it?"

Which is ridiculous.

[Lukewarm]

Your reason for scum reading me for my cases appears to shift to what ever suits your purpose in each sentence.

Like in the same post you both make this argument as to why I am scum:

It's a crack in your game that doesn't line up with your perceived skill level or process, it feels like guttural and reactive pure defense or just a throwaway reaction used to force the impression of a progression on the table. It's a type of loquacious empty-headedness that doesn't fit into the rest of your game.

And then say that it was wrong of me to think that this was the real reason:

You're incorrectly assuming that that means "Luke just doesn't make detailed, nuanced cases".

But then, when you are looking at the posts from the other game, this is what you said.

The third read is something that you couldn't even explain, which is pretty much completely divorced from your case in this game. You had no problem getting into the details. But, again, this case doesn't assume any information that isn't available to the public.

Like, in one line the issue is that I had a " guttural and reactive pure defense" -- but when you look at a case I made, where it was almost purely based in omgus'ing catboi to the point that I was really struggling to word it in any way that people would not just dismiss it as omgus, you just dismiss it as unrelated because this game I had detail in my town case of catboi.

How could you not see that there, if you really believed that to be the issue...